WorldWideScience

Sample records for significantly increasing trends

  1. Significant social events and increasing use of life-sustaining treatment: trend analysis using extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yen-Yuan; Chen, Likwang; Huang, Tien-Shang; Ko, Wen-Je; Chu, Tzong-Shinn; Ni, Yen-Hsuan; Chang, Shan-Chwen

    2014-03-04

    Most studies have examined the outcomes of patients supported by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a life-sustaining treatment. It is unclear whether significant social events are associated with the use of life-sustaining treatment. This study aimed to compare the trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use in Taiwan with that in the world, and to examine the influence of significant social events on the trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use in Taiwan. Taiwan's extracorporeal membrane oxygenation uses from 2000 to 2009 were collected from National Health Insurance Research Dataset. The number of the worldwide extracorporeal membrane oxygenation cases was mainly estimated using Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary July 2012. The trend of Taiwan's crude annual incidence rate of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use was compared with that of the rest of the world. Each trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use was examined using joinpoint regression. The measurement was the crude annual incidence rate of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use. Each of the Taiwan's crude annual incidence rates was much higher than the worldwide one in the same year. Both the trends of Taiwan's and worldwide crude annual incidence rates have significantly increased since 2000. Joinpoint regression selected the model of the Taiwan's trend with one joinpoint in 2006 as the best-fitted model, implying that the significant social events in 2006 were significantly associated with the trend change of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use following 2006. In addition, significantly social events highlighted by the media are more likely to be associated with the increase of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use than being fully covered by National Health Insurance. Significant social events, such as a well-known person's successful extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use highlighted by the mass media, are associated with the use of

  2. Increasing trends of herpes zoster in Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raina MacIntyre

    Full Text Available Increasing trends in incidence of herpes zoster (HZ have been reported in Australia and internationally. This may reflect the impact of childhood VZV vaccination programs introduced universally in Australia in late 2005. The objective of this study was to evaluate changes in incidence of HZ and PHN in Australia over time, and associated healthcare resource utilisation.Australian data on general practice (GP encounters for HZ, specific antiviral prescribing data from the pharmaceutical benefits scheme, emergency department presentations from the states of NSW and Victoria and national hospitalisation data for HZ were analysed for time trends using regression models. Two time periods (2000-2006 and 2006-2013 were compared which correspond broadly with the pre- and post- universal VZV vaccination period.All data sources showed increasing rates of HZ with age and over time. The GP database showed a significant annual increase in encounters for HZ of 2.5 per 100,000 between 1998 and 2013, and the rates of prescriptions for HZ increased by 4.2% per year between 2002 and 2012. In the 60+ population HZ incidence was estimated to increase from 11.9 to 15.4 per 1,000 persons using GP data or from 12.8 to 14.2 per 1,000 persons using prescription data (p<0.05, between the two periods. Hospitalisation data did not show the same increasing trend over time, except for the age group ≥80 years. Most emergency visits for HZ were not admitted, and showed significant increases over time.The burden of HZ in Australia is substantial, and continues to increase over time. This increase is seen both pre- and post-universal VZV vaccination in 2005, and is most prominent in the older population. The substantial burden of HZ, along with ageing of the Australian population and the importance of healthy ageing, warrants consideration of HZ vaccination for the elderly.

  3. Increased Materialistic Trends among Youth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Afsheen Masood

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this qualitative research is to investigate the increased sense of materialism among youth. The main research question is to identify the factors which are causing materialism among youth. The sample of this research included 25 people, age group 18-25 years obtained from students that are enrolled in universities. The interpretive phenomenological approach was taken which was based on semi-structured interviews. The findings revealed that materialistic trends are increasing among youth nowadays. Because thought patterns of youth and societal demands have changed totally. Factors that are increasing materialism include social media, brand consciousness; self-centeredness; fake personality development and desire to be socially accepted. The implications indicate that materialistic trend should stop by controlling the social media possession among youth which is the primary source of enhancing materialism among youth.

  4. Statistical significance of trends in monthly heavy precipitation over the US

    KAUST Repository

    Mahajan, Salil

    2011-05-11

    Trends in monthly heavy precipitation, defined by a return period of one year, are assessed for statistical significance in observations and Global Climate Model (GCM) simulations over the contiguous United States using Monte Carlo non-parametric and parametric bootstrapping techniques. The results from the two Monte Carlo approaches are found to be similar to each other, and also to the traditional non-parametric Kendall\\'s τ test, implying the robustness of the approach. Two different observational data-sets are employed to test for trends in monthly heavy precipitation and are found to exhibit consistent results. Both data-sets demonstrate upward trends, one of which is found to be statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Upward trends similar to observations are observed in some climate model simulations of the twentieth century, but their statistical significance is marginal. For projections of the twenty-first century, a statistically significant upwards trend is observed in most of the climate models analyzed. The change in the simulated precipitation variance appears to be more important in the twenty-first century projections than changes in the mean precipitation. Stochastic fluctuations of the climate-system are found to be dominate monthly heavy precipitation as some GCM simulations show a downwards trend even in the twenty-first century projections when the greenhouse gas forcings are strong. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  5. Trends in significant wave height and surface wind speed in the China Seas between 1988 and 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Chongwei; Zhang, Ren; Shi, Weilai; Li, Xin; Chen, Xuan

    2017-10-01

    Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988-2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988-2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s-1 yr-1 and 1.52 cm yr-1, respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Niño and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region.

  6. Trends of significant operating events in assessing programmatic issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lanning, W.D.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes one part of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) program for evaluating significant events and the process for identifying trends that may be indicative of programmatic weaknesses at operating nuclear power plants. A database management system was developed to permit analyses of significant operating events, events of potential safety significance, and certain reactor scrams. The analyses were based on events and problems reported by telephone to the NRC by licensees within hours of the events and, therefore, provided current operational data trend information. The regulatory requirements for reporting significant events, the screening criteria, and the process for identifying outliers for formal evaluation are described herein. This process contributed to an understanding of the underlying causes for events and problems. Examples are included of operating experience assessments that identified plants with a poor operating experience history that was attributable to procedural inadequacies, operator training deficiencies, inadequate root cause analysis, and inadequate control and planning of activities

  7. Increased Materialistic Trends Among Youth

    OpenAIRE

    Shama Mazahir, Afsheen Masood, Rubab Musarrat

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this qualitative research is to investigate the increased sense of materialism among youth. The main research question is to identify the factors which are causing materialism among youth. The sample of this research included 25 people, age group 18-25 years obtained from students that are enrolled in universities. The interpretive phenomenological approach was taken which was based on semi-structured interviews. The findings revealed that materialistic trends are increasing among...

  8. Increased Materialistic Trends among Youth

    OpenAIRE

    Afsheen Masood; Rubab Musarrat; Shama Mazahir

    2016-01-01

    The goal of this qualitative research is to investigate the increased sense of materialism among youth. The main research question is to identify the factors which are causing materialism among youth. The sample of this research included 25 people, age group 18-25 years obtained from students that are enrolled in universities. The interpretive phenomenological approach was taken which was based on semi-structured interviews. The findings revealed that materialistic trends are increasing among...

  9. Significant increase of surface ozone at a rural site, north of eastern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Ma

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Ozone pollution in eastern China has become one of the top environmental issues. Quantifying the temporal trend of surface ozone helps to assess the impacts of the anthropogenic precursor reductions and the likely effects of emission control strategies implemented. In this paper, ozone data collected at the Shangdianzi (SDZ regional atmospheric background station from 2003 to 2015 are presented and analyzed to obtain the variation in the trend of surface ozone in the most polluted region of China, north of eastern China or the North China Plain. A modified Kolmogorov–Zurbenko (KZ filter method was performed on the maximum daily average 8 h (MDA8 concentrations of ozone to separate the contributions of different factors from the variation of surface ozone and remove the influence of meteorological fluctuations on surface ozone. Results reveal that the short-term, seasonal and long-term components of ozone account for 36.4, 57.6 and 2.2 % of the total variance, respectively. The long-term trend indicates that the MDA8 has undergone a significant increase in the period of 2003–2015, with an average rate of 1.13 ± 0.01 ppb year−1 (R2 = 0.92. It is found that meteorological factors did not significantly influence the long-term variation of ozone and the increase may be completely attributed to changes in emissions. Furthermore, there is no significant correlation between the long-term O3 and NO2 trends. This study suggests that emission changes in VOCs might have played a more important role in the observed increase of surface ozone at SDZ.

  10. HYPE: a WFD tool for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends in groundwater time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Benjamin; Croiset, Nolwenn; Laurence, Gourcy

    2014-05-01

    The Water Framework Directive 2006/11/CE (WFD) on the protection of groundwater against pollution and deterioration asks Member States to identify significant and sustained upward trends in all bodies or groups of bodies of groundwater that are characterised as being at risk in accordance with Annex II to Directive 2000/60/EC. The Directive indicates that the procedure for the identification of significant and sustained upward trends must be based on a statistical method. Moreover, for significant increases of concentrations of pollutants, trend reversals are identified as being necessary. This means to be able to identify significant trend reversals. A specific tool, named HYPE, has been developed in order to help stakeholders working on groundwater trend assessment. The R encoded tool HYPE provides statistical analysis of groundwater time series. It follows several studies on the relevancy of the use of statistical tests on groundwater data series (Lopez et al., 2011) and other case studies on the thematic (Bourgine et al., 2012). It integrates the most powerful and robust statistical tests for hydrogeological applications. HYPE is linked to the French national database on groundwater data (ADES). So monitoring data gathered by the Water Agencies can be directly processed. HYPE has two main modules: - a characterisation module, which allows to visualize time series. HYPE calculates the main statistical characteristics and provides graphical representations; - a trend module, which identifies significant breaks, trends and trend reversals in time series, providing result table and graphical representation (cf figure). Additional modules are also implemented to identify regional and seasonal trends and to sample time series in a relevant way. HYPE has been used successfully in 2012 by the French Water Agencies to satisfy requirements of the WFD, concerning characterization of groundwater bodies' qualitative status and evaluation of the risk of non-achievement of

  11. The impact of North Atlantic wind and cyclone trends on European precipitation and significant wave height in the Atlantic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo M; Valente, Maria A; Trigo, Isabel F; Miranda, Pedro M A; Ramos, Alexandre M; Paredes, Daniel; García-Herrera, Ricardo

    2008-12-01

    An analysis of the frequency of cyclones and surface wind velocity for the Euro-Atlantic sector is performed by means of an objective methodology. Monthly and seasonal trends of cyclones and wind speed magnitude are computed and trends between 1960 and 2000 evaluated. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February, and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind magnitude trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low-pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends in the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (October-March), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s/year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for January-March are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of lat 50 degrees N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5 cm/year just north of Scotland). Trends in European precipitation are assessed using the Climatic Research Unit data set. The results of the assessment emphasize the link with the corresponding tendencies of cyclone frequencies. Finally, it is shown that these changes are associated, to a large extent, with the preferred phases of major large-scale atmospheric circulation modes, particularly with the North Atlantic Oscillation, the eastern Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

  12. Macro-indicators of citation impacts of six prolific countries: InCites data and the statistical significance of trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lutz Bornmann

    Full Text Available Using the InCites tool of Thomson Reuters, this study compares normalized citation impact values calculated for China, Japan, France, Germany, United States, and the UK throughout the time period from 1981 to 2010. InCites offers a unique opportunity to study the normalized citation impacts of countries using (i a long publication window (1981 to 2010, (ii a differentiation in (broad or more narrow subject areas, and (iii allowing for the use of statistical procedures in order to obtain an insightful investigation of national citation trends across the years. Using four broad categories, our results show significantly increasing trends in citation impact values for France, the UK, and especially Germany across the last thirty years in all areas. The citation impact of papers from China is still at a relatively low level (mostly below the world average, but the country follows an increasing trend line. The USA exhibits a stable pattern of high citation impact values across the years. With small impact differences between the publication years, the US trend is increasing in engineering and technology but decreasing in medical and health sciences as well as in agricultural sciences. Similar to the USA, Japan follows increasing as well as decreasing trends in different subject areas, but the variability across the years is small. In most of the years, papers from Japan perform below or approximately at the world average in each subject area.

  13. Increasing trends of sleep complaints in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos-Silva, Rogerio; Bittencourt, Lia Rita Azeredo; Pires, Maria Laura Nogueira; de Mello, Marco Tulio; Taddei, Jose Augusto; Benedito-Silva, Ana Amelia; Pompeia, Celine; Tufik, Sergio

    2010-06-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of sleep habits and complaints and to estimate the secular trends through three population-based surveys carried out in 1987, 1995, and 2007 in the general adult population of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Surveys were performed using the same three-stage cluster-sampling technique in three consecutive decades to obtain representative samples of the inhabitants of Sao Paulo with respect to gender, age (20-80 years), and socio-economic status. Sample sizes were 1000 volunteers in 1987 and 1995 surveys and 1101 in a 2007 survey. In each survey, the UNIFESP Sleep Questionnaire was administered face-to-face in each household selected. For 1987, 1995, and 2007, respectively, difficulty initiating sleep (weighted frequency %; 95% CI) [(13.9; 11.9-16.2), (19.15; 16.8-21.6), and (25.0; 22.5-27.8)], difficulty maintaining sleep [(15.8; 13.7-18.2), (27.6; 24.9-30.4), and (36.5; 33.5-39.5)], and early morning awakening [(10.6; 8.8-12.7), (14.2; 12.2-16.5), and (26.7; 24-29.6)] increased in the general population over time, mostly in women. Habitual snoring was the most commonly reported complaint across decades and was more prevalent in men. There was no statistically significant difference in snoring complaints between 1987 (21.5; 19.1-24.2) and 1995 (19.0; 16.7-21.6), but a significant increase was noted in 2007 (41.7; 38.6-44.8). Nightmares, bruxism, leg cramps, and somnambulism complaints were significantly higher in 2007 compared to 1987 and 1995. All were more frequent in women. This is the first study comparing sleep complaints in probabilistic population-based samples from the same metropolitan area, using the same methodology across three consecutive decades. Clear trends of increasing sleep complaints were observed, which increased faster between 1995 and 2007 than from 1987 to 1995. These secular trends should be considered a relevant public health issue and support the need for development of health care and

  14. A thirty year, fine-scale, characterization of area burned in Canadian forests shows evidence of regionally increasing trends in the last decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coops, Nicholas C; Hermosilla, Txomin; Wulder, Michael A; White, Joanne C; Bolton, Douglas K

    2018-01-01

    Fire as a dominant disturbance has profound implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle. We present the first ever multi-decadal, spatially-explicit, 30 meter assessment of fire regimes across the forested ecoregions of Canada at an annual time-step. From 1985 to 2015, 51 Mha burned, impacting over 6.5% of forested ecosystems. Mean annual area burned was 1,651,818 ha and varied markedly (σ = 1,116,119), with 25% of the total area burned occurring in three years: 1989, 1995, and 2015. Boreal forest types contained 98% of the total area burned, with the conifer-dominated Boreal Shield containing one-third of all burned area. While results confirm no significant national trend in burned area for the period of 1985 to 2015, a significant national increasing trend (α = 0.05) of 11% per year was evident for the past decade (2006 to 2015). Regionally, a significant increasing trend in total burned area from 1985 to 2015 was observed in the Montane Cordillera (2.4% increase per year), while the Taiga Plains and Taiga Shield West displayed significant increasing trends from 2006 to 2015 (26.1% and 12.7% increases per year, respectively). The Atlantic Maritime, which had the lowest burned area of all ecozones (0.01% burned per year), was the only ecozone to display a significant negative trend (2.4% decrease per year) from 1985 to 2015. Given the century-long fire return intervals in many of these ecozones, and large annual variability in burned area, short-term trends need to be interpreted with caution. Additional interpretive cautions are related to year used for trend initiation and the nature and extents of spatial regionalizations used for summarizing findings. The results of our analysis provide a baseline for monitoring future national and regional trends in burned area and offer spatially and temporally detailed insights to inform science, policy, and management.

  15. Examining National Trends in Educational Placements for Students with Significant Disabilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morningstar, Mary E.; Kurth, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Paul E.

    2017-01-01

    Using the least restrictive environments (LRE) data from annual "Reports to Congress," this study examined national trends in placement between 2000 and 2014 for school-aged students considered to have significant disabilities from among the categories of autism (ASD), intellectual disability (ID), multiple disabilities (MD), and…

  16. Increase in breast cancer incidence among older women in Mumbai: 30-year trends and predictions to 2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dikshit, Rajesh P; Yeole, B B; Nagrani, Rajini; Dhillon, P; Badwe, R; Bray, Freddie

    2012-08-01

    Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country. We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976-2005 and stratified them according to younger (25-49) and older age group (50-74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025. Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2-1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001-2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021-2025. The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Louisiana physician population trends: will increase in supply meet demand?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, Julie A; Sessions, Blane A; Ali, Juzar; Rigby, Perry C

    2012-01-01

    Physician shortages in the United States are now recognized broadly and widespread by specialty and geography. While supply is increasing, demand inexorably rises. This situation will probably be further stressed post implementation of healthcare reform. The variations by region and by state are many and significant; this complexity is not fully understood nor yet characterized. Trends similar to the averages of the US have been identified in Louisiana, including the aging of physicians. Lack of physicians, both specialists and generalists, has been reported to compromise quality and effectiveness of healthcare. Thus, the importance of matching up supply and demand is evident. The supply of physicians is increasing in absolute number and in the physicians-to-population ratio. Variations in population, aging, geography, and specialties indicate, in some areas, that this may not be enough to deal with the increasing demand. This paper aims to assess historically how physician shortages may affect the balance of supply and demand in future healthcare delivery, particularly in Louisiana.

  18. Significance in the increase of women psychiatrists in Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ha Kyoung; Kim, Soo In

    2008-01-01

    The number of female doctors has increased in Korea; 18.9% (13,083) of the total medical doctors registered (69,097) were women in 2006, compared to 13.6% (2,216) in 1975. The proportion of female doctors will jump up by 2010 considering that nearly 40% of the medical students are women as of today. This trend has had strong influence on the field of psychiatry; the percentage of women psychiatrists rose from 1.6 (6)% to 18% (453), from 1975 to 2006 and now women residents comprise 39% (206) of all. This is not only a reflection of a social phenomenon of the increase in professional women but also attributed to some specific characteristics of the psychiatry. Psychiatric practice may come more natural to women. While clinical activities of women psychiatrists are expanding, there are few women leaders and much less women are involving in academic activities in this field as yet. Though there is less sexual discrimination in the field of psychiatry, women psychiatrists are still having a lot of difficulties in balancing work and family matters. Many women psychiatrists also report they've ever felt an implied discrimination in their careers. In this study, we are to identify the characteristics of women psychiatrists and to explore the significance of the increase in women psychiatrists in Korea and the situation in which they are.

  19. Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

    2018-04-01

    Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

  20. Global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed from the ERA-20CM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aarnes, Ole Johan; Breivik, Øyvind

    2016-04-01

    The ERA-20CM is one of the latest additions to the ERA-series produced at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This 10 member ensemble is generated with a version of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), a coupled atmosphere-wave model. The model integration is run as a AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) constrained by CMIP5 recommended radiative forcing and different realizations of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice cover (SIC) prescribed by the HadISST2 (Met Office Hadley Center). While the ERA-20CM is unable to reproduce the actual synoptic conditions, it is designed to offer a realistic statistical representation of the past climate, spanning the period 1899-2010. In this study we investigate global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed based on ERA-20CM, using monthly mean data, upper percentiles and monthly/annual maxima. The aim of the study is to assess the quality of the trends and how these estimates are affected by different SST and SIC. Global trends are compared against corresponding estimates obtained with ERA-Interim (1979-2009), but also crosschecked against ERA-20C - an ECMWF pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century, known to most trustworthy in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Over the period 1900-2009, the 10 member ensemble yields trends mainly within +/- 5% per century. However, significant trends of opposite signs are found locally. Certain areas, like the eastern equatorial Pacific, highly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, show stronger trends. In general, trends based on statistical quantities further into the tail of the distribution are found less reliable.

  1. Increasing Trends in the Consumption of Fast-Foods in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper therefore examined the increase in the trend of consumption of fast food, the factors that lead to the increase and the effect it could have on the people. While calling for health education intervention on educating thepeople on how to reduce the amount of fat in the foods they consumed so that the nation would ...

  2. Increased wetness confounds Landsat-derived NDVI trends in the central Alaska North Slope region, 1985-2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raynolds, Martha K.; Walker, Donald A.

    2016-08-01

    Satellite data from the circumpolar Arctic have shown increases in vegetation indices correlated to warming air temperatures (e.g. Bhatt et al 2013 Remote Sensing 5 4229-54). However, more information is needed at finer scales to relate the satellite trends to vegetation changes on the ground. We examined changes using Landsat TM and ETM+ data between 1985 and 2011 in the central Alaska North Slope region, where the vegetation and landscapes are relatively well-known and mapped. We calculated trends in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tasseled-cap transformation indices, and related them to high-resolution aerial photographs, ground studies, and vegetation maps. Significant, mostly negative, changes in NDVI occurred in 7.3% of the area, with greater change in aquatic and barren types. Large reflectance changes due to erosion, deposition and lake drainage were evident. Oil industry-related changes such as construction of artificial islands, roads, and gravel pads were also easily identified. Regional trends showed decreases in NDVI for most vegetation types, but increases in tasseled-cap greenness (56% of study area, greatest for vegetation types with high shrub cover) and tasseled-cap wetness (11% of area), consistent with documented degradation of polygon ice wedges, indicating that increasing cover of water may be masking increases in vegetation when summarized using the water-sensitive NDVI.

  3. Increasing Juniperus virginiana L. pollen in the Tulsa atmosphere: long-term trends, variability, and influence of meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flonard, Michaela; Lo, Esther; Levetin, Estelle

    2018-02-01

    In the Tulsa area, the Cupressaceae is largely represented by eastern red cedar ( Juniperus virginiana L.). The encroachment of this species into the grasslands of Oklahoma has been well documented, and it is believed this trend will continue. The pollen is known to be allergenic and is a major component of the Tulsa atmosphere in February and March. This study examined airborne Cupressaceae pollen data from 1987 to 2016 to determine long-term trends, pollen seasonal variability, and influence of meteorological variables on airborne pollen concentrations. Pollen was collected through means of a Burkard sampler and analyzed with microscopy. Daily pollen concentrations and yearly pollen metrics showed a high degree of variability. In addition, there were significant increases over time in the seasonal pollen index and in peak concentrations. These increases parallel the increasing population of J. virginiana in the region. Pollen data were split into pre- and post-peak categories for statistical analyses, which revealed significant differences in correlations of the two datasets when analyzed with meteorological conditions. While temperature and dew point, among others were significant in both datasets, other factors, like relative humidity, were significant only in one dataset. Analyses using wind direction showed that southerly and southwestern winds contributed to increased pollen concentrations. This study confirms that J. virginiana pollen has become an increasing risk for individuals sensitive to this pollen and emphasizes the need for long-term aerobiological monitoring in other areas.

  4. Health trends in the wake of the financial crisis-increasing inequalities?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, Kenneth; Tøge, Anne Grete

    2017-08-01

    The financial crisis that hit Europe in 2007-2008 and the corresponding austerity policies have generated concern about increasing health inequalities, although impacts have been less salient than initially expected. One explanation could be that health inequalities emerged first a few years into the crisis. This study investigates health trends in the wake of the financial crisis and analyses health inequalities across a number of relevant population subgroups, including those defined by employment status, age, family type, gender, and educational attainment. This study uses individual-level panel data (EU-SILC, 2010-2013) to investigate trends in self-rated health. By applying individual fixed effects regression models, the study estimates the average yearly change in self-rated health for persons aged 15-64 years in 28 European countries. Health inequalities are investigated using stratified analyses. Unemployed respondents, particularly those who were unemployed in all years of observation, had a steeper decline in self-rated health than the employed. Respondents of prime working age (25-54 years) had a steeper decline than their younger (15-24) and older (55-64) counterparts, while single parents had a more favorable trend in self-rated health than dual parents. We did not observe any increasing health inequalities based on gender or educational attainment. Health inequalities increased in the wake of the financial crisis, especially those associated with employment status, age, and family type. We did not observe increasing health inequalities in terms of levels of educational attainment and gender.

  5. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-10-01

    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  6. Trends in space activities in 2014: The significance of the space activities of governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paikowsky, Deganit; Baram, Gil; Ben-Israel, Isaac

    2016-01-01

    This article addresses the principal events of 2014 in the field of space activities, and extrapolates from them the primary trends that can be identified in governmental space activities. In 2014, global space activities centered on two vectors. The first was geopolitical, and the second relates to the matrix between increasing commercial space activities and traditional governmental space activities. In light of these two vectors, the article outlines and analyzes trends of space exploration, human spaceflights, industry and technology, cooperation versus self-reliance, and space security and sustainability. It also reviews the space activities of the leading space-faring nations.

  7. Increasing global crop harvest frequency: recent trends and future directions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ray, Deepak K; Foley, Jonathan A

    2013-01-01

    The world’s agricultural systems face the challenge of meeting the rising demands from population growth, changing dietary preferences, and expanding biofuel use. Previous studies have put forward strategies for meeting this growing demand by increasing global crop production, either expanding the area under cultivation or intensifying the crop yields of our existing agricultural lands. However, another possible means for increasing global crop production has received less attention: increasing the frequency of global cropland harvested each year. Historically, many of the world’s croplands were left fallow, or had failed harvests, each year, foregoing opportunities for delivering crop production. Furthermore, many regions, particularly in the tropics, may be capable of multiple harvests per year, often more than are harvested today. Here we analyze a global compilation of agricultural statistics to show how the world’s harvested cropland has changed. Between 2000 and 2011, harvested land area grew roughly 4 times faster than total standing cropland area. Using a metric of cropland harvest frequency (CHF)—the ratio of land harvested each year to the total standing cropland—and its recent trends, we identify countries that harvest their croplands more frequently, and those that have the potential to increase their cropland harvest frequency. We suggest that a possible ‘harvest gap’ may exist in many countries that represents an opportunity to increase crop production on existing agricultural lands. However, increasing the harvest frequency of existing croplands could have significant environmental and social impacts, which need careful evaluation. (letter)

  8. Increasing trends in kidney cancer over the last 2 decades in Saudi Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alkhateeb, Sultan S; Alkhateeb, Jawaher M; Alrashidi, Eman A

    2015-06-01

    To examine the trends of kidney cancer over the last 2 decades in a subset of a Saudi Arabian population.   We conducted a retrospective study in a tertiary care center including all adult patients with primary kidney cancer who presented and were managed between 1990 and 2010. The time period was split into 4 quartiles, and variables tested and compared using chi-square, T-test, and Kaplan-Meier curves for survival.   The total was 215 patients with a mean age of 57.8 years. There was an increase in the number of kidney cancer cases over the last 2 decades. There was no significant difference in the mode of presentation or stage distribution between quartiles. A significant change was observed in the management towards minimally invasive and nephron-sparing surgeries (p less than 0.001). There was no change in recurrence-free and disease-specific survival over the last 20 years.   There have been an increasing number of kidney cancer patients over the last 2 decades with no observed migration towards more incidental and low stage tumors as compared with developed countries.

  9. Recent change of vegetation growth trend in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng Shushi; Fang Jingyun; Piao Shilong; Chen, Anping; Xu Liang; Myneni, Ranga B; Cao Chunxiang; Pinzon, Jorge E; Tucker, Compton J

    2011-01-01

    Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982–99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April–October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007 yr −1 from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982–99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013 yr −1 ) is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003 yr −1 ) and September and October (SO) (0.0008 yr −1 ). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982–2010 compared with that during 1982–99 (0.0012 yr −1 ) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.—Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039 yr −1 ) to slightly decreasing ( − 0.0002 yr −1 ) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020 yr −1 ) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

  10. Recent Change of Vegetation Growth Trend in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Shushi; Chen, Anping; Xu, Liang; Cao, Chunxiang; Fang, Jingyun; Myneni, Ranga B.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Tucker, COmpton J.; Piao, Shilong

    2011-01-01

    Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982-99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April-October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007/yr from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982-99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013/yr is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003/yr) and September and October (SO) (0.0008/yr). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982-2010 compared with that during 1982-99 (0.0012/yr) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039/yr) to slightly decreasing (0:0002/yr) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020/yr) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

  11. Gas revenue increasingly significant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Megill, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper briefly describes the wellhead prices of natural gas compared to crude oil over the past 70 years. Although natural gas prices have never reached price parity with crude oil, the relative value of a gas BTU has been increasing. It is one of the reasons that the total amount of money coming from natural gas wells is becoming more significant. From 1920 to 1955 the revenue at the wellhead for natural gas was only about 10% of the money received by producers. Most of the money needed for exploration, development, and production came from crude oil. At present, however, over 40% of the money from the upstream portion of the petroleum industry is from natural gas. As a result, in a few short years natural gas may become 50% of the money revenues generated from wellhead production facilities

  12. Increased trends in the use of treatment-limiting decisions in a regional neurosurgical unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, William T; McMillan, Tristan; Young, Adam M H; White, Mark A J

    2017-04-01

    Treatment-limiting decisions (TLDs) are employed to actively withhold treatment from patients whom clinicians feel would derive no benefit or suffer detrimental effects from further intervention. The use of such decisions has been heavily discussed in the media and clinicians in the past have been reluctant to institute them, even though it is in the best interests of the patients. Their use is influenced by several ethical, religious and social factors all of which have changed significantly over time. This study reports the trends in use of TLDs in a regional neurosurgical unit over 23 years. Patient archives were reviewed to identify the number of admissions and procedures performed at the Institute of Neurological Sciences, Glasgow, in the years 1988, 1997 and 2011. Death certificate records were used to identify mortality in the unit in the year 2011. Patient records were used to obtain details of diagnosis, time from admission to death, and the presence and timing of a TLD. The results show an increase in the use of TLDs, with decisions made for 89% of those who died in 2011, compared to 68% in 1997 and 51% in 1988. The number of admissions has increased substantially since 1988 as has the percentage of patients undergoing surgery (46, 67 and 72% in 1988, 1997 and 2011, respectively). There is a trending increase in the number of patients who have a TLD in our regional neurosurgical unit. This demonstrates an increased willingness of clinicians to recognise poor prognosis and to withdraw or withhold treatment in these cases. Continued appropriate use of the TLD is recommended but it is to only ever reflect the best interests of the patient.

  13. Trends in size of tropical deforestation events signal increasing dominance of industrial-scale drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Kemen G.; González-Roglich, Mariano; Schaffer-Smith, Danica; Schwantes, Amanda M.; Swenson, Jennifer J.

    2017-05-01

    Deforestation continues across the tropics at alarming rates, with repercussions for ecosystem processes, carbon storage and long term sustainability. Taking advantage of recent fine-scale measurement of deforestation, this analysis aims to improve our understanding of the scale of deforestation drivers in the tropics. We examined trends in forest clearings of different sizes from 2000-2012 by country, region and development level. As tropical deforestation increased from approximately 6900 kha yr-1 in the first half of the study period, to >7900 kha yr-1 in the second half of the study period, >50% of this increase was attributable to the proliferation of medium and large clearings (>10 ha). This trend was most pronounced in Southeast Asia and in South America. Outside of Brazil >60% of the observed increase in deforestation in South America was due to an upsurge in medium- and large-scale clearings; Brazil had a divergent trend of decreasing deforestation, >90% of which was attributable to a reduction in medium and large clearings. The emerging prominence of large-scale drivers of forest loss in many regions and countries suggests the growing need for policy interventions which target industrial-scale agricultural commodity producers. The experience in Brazil suggests that there are promising policy solutions to mitigate large-scale deforestation, but that these policy initiatives do not adequately address small-scale drivers. By providing up-to-date and spatially explicit information on the scale of deforestation, and the trends in these patterns over time, this study contributes valuable information for monitoring, and designing effective interventions to address deforestation.

  14. Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

    2015-09-21

    Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

  15. Restaurant Cooking Trends and Increased Risk for Campylobacter Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Anna K; Rigby, Dan; Burton, Michael; Millman, Caroline; Williams, Nicola J; Jones, Trevor R; Wigley, Paul; O'Brien, Sarah J; Cross, Paul

    2016-07-01

    In the United Kingdom, outbreaks of Campylobacter infection are increasingly attributed to undercooked chicken livers, yet many recipes, including those of top chefs, advocate short cooking times and serving livers pink. During 2015, we studied preferences of chefs and the public in the United Kingdom and investigated the link between liver rareness and survival of Campylobacter. We used photographs to assess chefs' ability to identify chicken livers meeting safe cooking guidelines. To investigate the microbiological safety of livers chefs preferred to serve, we modeled Campylobacter survival in infected chicken livers cooked to various temperatures. Most chefs correctly identified safely cooked livers but overestimated the public's preference for rareness and thus preferred to serve them more rare. We estimated that 19%-52% of livers served commercially in the United Kingdom fail to reach 70°C and that predicted Campylobacter survival rates are 48%-98%. These findings indicate that cooking trends are linked to increasing Campylobacter infections.

  16. The increasing incidence of anal cancer: can it be explained by trends in risk groups?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zee, R. P.; Richel, O.; de Vries, H. J. C.; Prins, J. M.

    2013-01-01

    Anal cancer incidence is gradually increasing. The cause of this increase is not exactly known. This systematic literature review aimed to investigate the trend in time of anal cancer incidence and to find an explanation for the supposed increase. The TRIP database and PubMed were searched for

  17. Recent trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garau, M.; Alonso, R.; Musetti, C.; Barrios, E.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To analyze trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay in the period 1989-2008. Methodology: The National Cancer Registry (NCR) collects information from cancer mortality from the death certificates: 147 631 deaths were identified in the period from cancer, which was recorded topography, sex and age. They were calculated for each year mortality rates adjusted for age (TMAE) using as standard the world population. Trends were assessed using the method and calculated the joinpoint Estimated Annual Percent Change (ESPP). Results: The TMAE presents downward trend in both sexes (ESPP = significant -0.60 in men and -0.49 In women). In the period studied, mortality presented decreasing trend when it comes to cancer breast cancer in women (ESPP -0.79, significant), and increased for prostate cancer (ESPP = 0.70) and kidney (ESPP = 1.82 and 1.71 in men and women respectively). As regards the digestive system decreased mortality observed for esophageal cancer (ESPP in = -1.93 men and women = -1.78) and stomach (ESPP = -2.22 men and women -2.24 ). Mortality for cancer of colorectum is stable in men (ESPP = 0.35 No significant (NS)) and shows a decline slight but steady in women (ESPP -0.5). As for cancers that show strong association with smoking, decreased mortality observed lung and laryngeal cancer in men (ESPP = -1.11 and -2.05 respectively), confirming the trend found between 1990 and 2001; in women there is increased mortality from lung cancer (ESPP = 2.76) that is not accompanied by increased mortality from laryngeal cancer (-0.1 ESPP = NS). Mortality from cancers oral cavity and pharynx is stable, but in women a significant increase (ESPP = 1.84) is observed when the oral cavity is analyzed in isolation (lip, tongue, gums, palate). As cervical cancer, mortality trends in 20 years is to increase (ESPP = 1.14), however, if consider only the past decade, mortality appears stabilized (ESPP = 0.57 NS). Conclusions: The overall trend of cancer mortality (all sites

  18. Grain production trends in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan: New opportunities in an increasingly unstable world?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lioubimtseva, Elena; Henebry, Geoffrey M.

    2012-06-01

    Grain production in the countries of the former USSR sharply declined during the past two decades and has only recently started to recover. In the context of the current economic and food-price crisis, Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan might be presented with a window of opportunity to reemerge on the global agricultural market, if they succeed in increasing their productivity. The future of their agriculture, however, is highly sensitive to a combination of internal and external factors, such as institutional changes, land-use changes, climate variability and change, and global economic trends. The future of this region's grain production is likely to have a significant impact on the global and regional food security over the next decades.

  19. Spatial variations of summer precipitation trends in South Korea, 1973-2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Heejun; Kwon, Won-Tae

    2007-01-01

    We have investigated the spatial patterns of trends in summer precipitation amount, intensity, and heavy precipitation for South Korea between 1973 and 2005. All stations show increasing trends in precipitation amount during the summer months, with the highest percentage of significant increase in June precipitation for the northern and central western part of South Korea. There is a significant increase in August precipitation for stations in the southeastern part of South Korea. Only a few stations exhibited significant upward trends in September precipitation. There is a weak to moderate spatial autocorrelation with the highest Moran's I value in June precipitation amount and August precipitation intensity. The number of days with daily precipitation exceeding 50 and 30 mm during the summer has increased at all stations. Observed trends are likely to be associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, sea surface temperature anomalies, and orography, but detailed causes of these trends need further investigation

  20. [Significance of journal articles within the scientific literature of various disciplines: trends over the past two decades].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, András; Soós, Sándor

    2015-06-14

    Trends of preferred publication channels in selected categories of Sciences, Social Sciences and Arts & Humanities were studied by determining the percentage share of references in reviews to serials (journals) in all references. It was found that in the period 1995-2014, the fraction of articles published in journals was increasing in all selected areas of science and scholarship. The most dynamical increase was found in Social Sciences.

  1. Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pei

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE. While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle–lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900–2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.

  2. Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

  3. Factors associated with the increasing trend of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy among patients with ductal carcinoma in situ: Analysis of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You, Qiuting; Chen, Kai; Li, Yudong; Lai, Jianguo; Fang, Yichao; Shen, Shiyu; Liu, Yicheng; Su, Fengxi; Yu, Fengyan

    2018-05-22

    Our study aimed to investigate the factors influencing trends of contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) among patients with unilateral ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data to identify patients with unilateral DCIS diagnosed from 1998 to 2013. Patients were categorized as breast-conserving surgery (BCS), Unilateral Mastectomy and CPM group. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were applied to assess the factors associated with undergoing CPM among mastectomy patients. The trends of CPM among mastectomy patients through year were presented by different subgroups of sociodemographic and pathological characteristics. Of those, 105326 patients with DCIS were identified, and 6370 patients underwent CPM. The proportion of CPM was 6.05% for all surgically-treated patients and 21.09% for mastectomy patients, and it increased more than six-fold between 1998 and 2013 (from 1.74% to 10.89% for all surgically-treated patients and from 5.44% to 37.47% for mastectomy patients). Younger age, white race, married status, smaller tumor size, positive ER and PR status were significantly associated with higher CPM proportion among mastectomy patients. The proportion of CPM was increasing through year, and the increasing trends were obvious in the subgroups of younger, white, married, metropolitan, with higher bachelor degree and higher median family income patients, while there were no apparent differences in the trends between subgroups of pathological characteristics. The trends of CPM among mastectomy patients were increasing through years and influenced by patients' sociodemographic characteristics, but not pathological characteristics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. An Increase in the Incidence of Infective Endocarditis in England since 2008: A secular trend interrupted time series analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M.; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

    2017-01-01

    Background Antibiotic prophylaxis (AP) administered prior to invasive procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis (IE) has historically been the focus of IE prevention. Recent changes in AP guidelines in the US and Europe have substantially reduced the numbers for whom AP is recommended. In the UK, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidelines recommended complete cessation of AP in March 2008. We report the impact of these guidelines on AP prescribing; in addition, IE incidence was examined following the introduction of the guidelines. Methods We analyzed English AP prescribing data from January 2004 to March 2013 and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of IE from January 2000 to March 2013. Findings AP prescribing rates fell dramatically after introduction of the NICE guidance (10,935 prescriptions/month vs. 2,236 prescriptions/month, p<0·0001). Commencing in March 2008, there was also a significant increase in the number of IE cases/month (0·11 cases/10million/month, CI 0·05–0·16, p<0·0001) above the projected historical trend. By March 2013, there were an additional 35 cases/month than would have been expected if the previous trend had continued. This increase in IE incidence was significant for both ‘high-risk’ and ‘lower-risk’ individuals. Interpretation Although our data do not establish a causal relationship, there has been a substantial reduction in AP prescribing and a significant increase in IE incidence in England since introduction of the NICE guidelines in 2008. Funding Different aspects of this study were supported by Heart Research UK and Simplyhealth [Grant Ref: RG2632/13/14] and NIDCR R03 grant [Ref: 1R03DE023092-01] from the National Institutes for Health. PMID:25467569

  5. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

    2014-02-01

    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  6. Storminess trends in the Gulf and Mexican Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, E. T.; Ojeda, E.; Appendini, C. M.

    2016-12-01

    Numerous studies have focused on whether the attributes of tropical cyclones have varied, or how they are expected to vary in a warming climate and yet, a defined conclusion has not been reached. However, an increase in storm intensity, with the inherent increase of wave height and storm surge, will be responsible of heavy economic loss on coastal areas. This contribution analyzes possible variations in the long term storminess pattern observed in 10 nearshore locations along the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean using modeled wave data from the last 30 years (Appendini et al., 2013). Storminess is studied in terms of wave energy content focusing on extreme event conditions. Wave storm events are obtained using the Peak Over Threshold method. The wave conditions during the events are separated into those caused by tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical storm (ETS) events because they are expected to behave differently in response to changing climate conditions. In order to characterize the waves generated by these different phenomena the data set is inspected separating individual storm events into TC and ETS using the IBtracks information. The trend and Mann-Kendall test are performed for each node to account for possible trends in the frequency, mean and maximum significant wave heights, and the mean energy content (taken as E=integral(Hs*dt) of TC and ETS. For the TC and ETS events, the results of the MK test show an absence of significant temporal trends for the majority of the nodes even at the 90% confidence interval. The significant trends in the number of ETS events show differential results (negative trend in the northernmost node and positive trends in the two Caribbean nodes and the easternmost GoM node). Regarding the TC events, the two nodes located in the Caribbean Sea present significant temporal (positive) trends in the energy content of the events. However, this trend is related to an increase in the magnitude of

  7. Worldwide trends show oropharyngeal cancer rates increasing

    Science.gov (United States)

    NCI scientists report that the incidence of oropharyngeal cancer significantly increased during the period 1983-2002 among people in countries that are economically developed. Oropharyngeal cancer occurs primarily in the middle part of the throat behind t

  8. Increasing trends in rainfall-runoff erosivity in the Source Region of the Three Rivers, 1961-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yousheng; Cheng, Congcong; Xie, Yun; Liu, Baoyuan; Yin, Shuiqing; Liu, Yingna; Hao, Yanfang

    2017-08-15

    As the head source of the two longest rivers in China and the longest river in Southeast Asia, the East Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is experiencing increasing thaw snowmelt and more heavy precipitation events under global warming, which might lead to soil erosion risk. To understand the potential driving force of soil erosion and its relationship with precipitation in the context of climate change, this study analyzed long-term variations in annual rainfall-runoff erosivity, a climatic index of soil erosion, by using the Mann-Kendall statistical test and Theil and Sen's approach in the Source Region of the Three Rivers during 1961-2012. The results showed the followings: (i) increasing annual rainfall-runoff erosivity was observed over the past 52years, with a mean relative trend index (RT 1 ) value of 12.1%. The increasing trend was more obvious for the latest two decades: RT 1 was nearly three times larger than that over the entire period; (ii) more precipitation events and a higher precipitation amount were the major forces for the increasing rainfall-runoff erosivity; (iii) similar rising trends in sediment yields, which corresponded to rainfall-runoff erosivity under slightly increasing vegetation coverage in the study area, implied a large contribution of rainfall-runoff erosivity to the increasing sediment yields; and (iv) high warming rates increased the risk of soil destruction, soil erosion and sediment yields. Conservation measures, such as enclosing grassland, returning grazing land to grassland and rotation grazing since the 1980s, have maintained vegetation coverage and should be continued and strengthened. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Farber, G.; Matthes, H. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Koln (Germany)

    2001-07-01

    In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

  10. Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, G.; Matthes, H.

    2001-01-01

    In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

  11. Detection of field significant long-term monotonic trends in spring yields

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ledvinka, O.; Lamačová, Anna

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 5 (2015), s. 1463-1484 ISSN 1436-3240 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Cross-correlation * Groundwater monitoring * Serial correlation * Spring yields * Trend analysis Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 2.237, year: 2015

  12. Detecting Variation Trends of Temperature and Precipitation for the Dadu River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying Wu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Dadu River Basin of China based on observed records from fourteen meteorological stations. The magnitude of trends was estimated using Sen’s linear method while its statistical significance was evaluated using Mann-Kendall’s test. The results of analysis depict increase change from northwest to southeast of annual temperature and precipitation in space. In temporal scale, the annual temperature showed significant increase trend and the annual precipitation showed increase trend. For extreme indices, the trends for temperature are more consistent in the region compared to precipitation. This paper has practical meanings for an effective management of climate risk and provides a foundation for further study of hydrological situation in this river basin.

  13. Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

  14. Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    stations. Flow-adjustment procedures were used with these techniques at all stations to remove the effects of streamflow on water-quality variability. Flow adjustments were used for all constituents, except temperature. A decreasing trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent; whereas, an increasing trend indicates an increase in concentration and potential degradation in water quality. Trend results varied statewide by station and by physical property and water-quality constituent. The results for all stations and all physical properties and water-quality constituents examined had at least one statistically significant (p-value <0.05) increasing or decreasing trend during the specified period of record. Water temperature and concentrations of dissolved oxygen had no significant decreasing trends at any station. Water temperature had one significant increasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. Specific conductance and concentrations of hardness had one significant decreasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. pH also had a significant decreasing trend at the Mud River near Gus station. Concentrations of total suspended solids had 1 increasing trend at the Kentucky River at High Bridge station and 10 decreasing trends with 5 of those stations located in the Cumberland River Basin. Major ions analyzed for trends included chloride and sulfate. Concentrations of chloride at the 37 stations had increasing trends at 15 stations, decreasing trends at 3 stations, and no significant trend in concentration over time at 19 stations. Most of the increasing trends in concentrations of chloride are located in the northern part of Kentucky, possibly indicating an increase in the use of road salts for road deicing and (or) the result of resource extraction (oil, gas, and coal). Increasing trends of sulfate concentrations were detected at seven stations, all located in the Appalachian

  15. Trends and affordability of cigarette prices: ample room for tax increases and related health gains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guindon, G E; Tobin, S; Yach, D

    2002-03-01

    Increasing the price of tobacco products is arguably the most effective method of curbing the prevalence and consumption of tobacco products. Price increases would reduce the global burden of disease brought about by tobacco consumption. To compare cigarette price data from more than 80 countries using varying methods, examine trends in prices and affordability during the 1990s, and explore various policy implications pertaining to tobacco prices. March 2001 cigarette price data from the Economist Intelligence Unit are used to compare cigarette prices across countries. To facilitate comparison and to assess affordability, prices are presented in US dollars, purchasing power parity (PPP) units using the Big Mac index as an indicator of PPP and in terms of minutes of labour required to purchase a pack of cigarettes. Annual real percentage changes in cigarette prices between 1990 and 2000 and annual changes in the minutes of labour required to buy cigarettes between 1991 and 2000 are also calculated to examine trends. Cigarette prices tend to be higher in wealthier countries and in countries that have strong tobacco control programmes. On the other hand, minutes of labour required to purchase cigarettes vary vastly between countries. Trends between 1990 and 2000 in real prices and minutes of labour indicate, with some exceptions, that cigarettes have become more expensive in most developed countries but more affordable in many developing countries. However, in the UK, despite recent increases in price, cigarettes are still more affordable than they were in the 1960s. The results suggest that there is ample room to increase tobacco prices through taxation. In too many countries, cigarette prices have failed to keep up with increases in the general price level of goods and services, rendering them more affordable in 2000 than they were at the beginning of the decade. Opportunities to increase government revenue and improve health through reduced consumption brought

  16. Ecohydrological Index, Native Fish, and Climate Trends and Relationships in the Kansas River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinnathamby, Sumathy; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle R; Muche, Muluken E; Hutchinson, Stacy L; Anandhi, Aavudai

    2018-01-01

    This study quantified climatological and hydrological trends and relationships to presence and distribution of two native aquatic species in the Kansas River Basin over the past half-century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) at 34 streamgages over a 50-year period (1962-2012). Results showed a significant negative trend in annual streamflow for 10 of 12 western streamgages (up to -7.65 mm/50 yr) and smaller negative trends for most other streamgages. Significant negative trends in western Basin streamflow were more widespread in summer (12 stations) than winter or spring (6 stations). The negative-trend magnitude and significance decreased from west to east for maximum-flow IHAs. Minimum- flow IHAs, however, significantly decreased at High Plains streamgages but significantly increased at Central Great Plains streamgages. Number of zero-flow days showed positive trends in the High Plains. Most streamgages showed negative trends in low- and high-flow pulse frequency and high-flow pulse duration, and positive trends in low-flow pulse duration. These results were consistent with increasing occurrence of drought. Shift in occurrence from present (1860-1950) to absent (2000-2012) was significantly related (pBasin sites and had different responses to hydrological index trends at eastern Basin sites. These results demonstrate ecohydrological index changes impact distributions of native fish and suggest target factors for assessment or restoration activities.

  17. Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

    2012-04-01

    Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

  18. Trends in evaporation of a large subtropical lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Cheng; Wang, Yongwei; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Piao, Meihua; Xiao, Wei; Lee, Xuhui

    2017-07-01

    How rising temperature and changing solar radiation affect evaporation of natural water bodies remains poor understood. In this study, evaporation from Lake Taihu, a large (area 2400 km2) freshwater lake in the Yangtze River Delta, China, was simulated by the CLM4-LISSS offline lake model and estimated with pan evaporation data. Both methods were calibrated against lake evaporation measured directly with eddy covariance in 2012. Results show a significant increasing trend of annual lake evaporation from 1979 to 2013, at a rate of 29.6 mm decade-1 according to the lake model and 25.4 mm decade-1 according to the pan method. The mean annual evaporation during this period shows good agreement between these two methods (977 mm according to the model and 1007 mm according to the pan method). A stepwise linear regression reveals that downward shortwave radiation was the most significant contributor to the modeled evaporation trend, while air temperature was the most significant contributor to the pan evaporation trend. Wind speed had little impact on the modeled lake evaporation but had a negative contribution to the pan evaporation trend offsetting some of the temperature effect. Reference evaporation was not a good proxy for the lake evaporation because it was on average 20.6 % too high and its increasing trend was too large (56.5 mm decade-1).

  19. Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

  20. Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

    2017-12-01

    The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

  1. Epidemiology of Trichomoniasis in South Korea and Increasing Trend in Incidence, Health Insurance Review and Assessment 2009-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joo, So-Young; Goo, Youn-Kyoung; Ryu, Jae-Sook; Lee, Sang-Eun; Lee, Won Kee; Chung, Dong-Il; Hong, Yeonchul

    2016-01-01

    Trichomoniasis, which is caused by Trichomonas vaginalis, is one of the most common non-viral sexually transmitted infections; however, limited population-based data are available that describe patterns and trends of the disease. We summarized insurance claims of trichomoniasis cases reported during 2009-2014 to South Korea Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. The average annual incidence in South Korea was 276.8 persons per 100,000 population, and a substantial sex-associated variation was observed. The incidence rate among female subjects trended upward over 6 years, that is, it increased from 501 in 2009 to 625.8 in 2014 per 100,000 female population, which indicates a 25% overall increase. This trend was sharpest in the ≥60 years group of female population. However, a 66% decrease in incidence rates was observed among male subjects (23.7 in 2009 to 15.7 in 2014 per 100,000 male population). Further, substantial decrease was observed in the ≥40 years groups of male population. The incidence of trichomoniasis varied across regions and was the highest in Jeju province of South Korea. Overall, as the incidence of trichomoniasis appears to have increased in South Korea during 2009-2014, the disease burden is increasing; hence, there is a need to better understand the disease transmission.

  2. Incidence and mortality trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia, 1988-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, Ina; Jakšić, Ozren; Kuliš, Tomislav; Batinjan, Katarina; Znaor, Ariana

    2012-01-01

    Aim To investigate the time trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia from 1988-2009, compare them with trends in other populations, and identify possible changes. Methods The data sources were the Croatian National Cancer Registry for incidence data, Croatian Bureau of Statistics for the numbers of deaths, and United Nations population estimates. Joinpoint regression analysis using the age-standardized rates was used to analyze incidence and mortality trends. Results Acute lymphoblastic leukemia and chronic lymphocytic leukemia incidence did not significantly change. Acute myeloid leukemia incidence significantly increased in women, with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 2.6% during the whole period, and in men since 1998, with EAPC of 3.2%. Chronic myeloid leukemia incidence significantly decreased in women (EAPC -3.7%) and remained stable in men. Mortality rates were stable for both lymphoid and myeloid leukemia in both sexes. Hodgkin lymphoma non-significantly increased in incidence and significantly decreased in mortality (EAPCs of -5.6% in men and -3.7% in women). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma significantly increased in incidence in women (EAPC 3.2%) and non-significantly in men and in mortality in both men (EAPC 1.6%) and women (EAPC 1.8%). Conclusion While Croatia had similar leukemia and lymphoma incidence trends as the other countries, the mortality trends were less favorable than in Western Europe. The lack of declines of leukemia incidence and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality could be attributed to late introduction of optimal therapies. As currently the most up-to-date diagnostics and treatments are available and covered by health insurance, we expect more favorable trends in the future. PMID:22522989

  3. Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2012-12-01

    Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

  4. Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Morris, Joan K.; Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth

    2018-01-01

    and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid...... of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random- effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003-2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects...

  5. Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

    2017-06-01

    Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

  6. Spatiotemporal trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhire, I.; Ahmed, F.

    2016-01-01

    This study aims at quantifying the trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda for the period of 1961-1992, based on analysis of climatic data (temperatures, precipitations, and potential evapotranspiration). The analysis of magnitude and significance of trends in temperatures and aridity index show the degree of climate change and mark the level of vulnerability to extreme events (e.g., droughts) in different areas of the country. The study reveals that mean temperatures increased in most parts of the country, with a significant increase observed in the eastern lowlands and in the southwestern parts. The highlands located in the northwest and the Congo-Nile crest showed a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures. Aridity index increased only in March, April, October, and November, corresponding with the rainy seasons. The remaining months of the year showed a decreasing trend. At an annual resolution, the highlands and the western region showed a rise in aridity index with a decreasing pattern over the eastern lowlands and the central plateau. Generally, the highlands presented a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures and aridity index especially during the rainy seasons. The eastern lowlands showed a significant increase in mean temperatures and decreasing trends in aridity index. Therefore, these areas are bound to experience more droughts, leading to reduced water and consequent decline in agricultural production. On the other hand, the north highlands and southwest region will continue to be more productive.

  7. Solar radiation in Germany - observed trends and an assessment of the causes. Pt. 2; Detailed trend analysis for Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grabbe, G C [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Grassl, H [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst. Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

    1994-02-01

    In Part II, more detailed observations of solar radiation hourly averages of Hamburg were analysed. Global solar radiation, strongly influenced by clouds, decreased with a low significance between 1964 and 1989. The significance of the trend of increasing direct solar radiation in the same period is very weak, because the clouds play the dominant role. The diffuse solar radiation, which is a safe indicator for trends in solar irradiance, because it is relatively independent of the weather, decreased between 1964 and 1989. The reasons for this decrease are the measures to clean the air. Between 1975 and 1987 the diffuse solar radiation increased slightly. The reason for this fact is a doubling of optically active aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer in this time period. (orig.)

  8. Trends in family tourism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heike A. Schänzel

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose – Families represent a large and growing market for the tourism industry. Family tourism is driven by the increasing importance placed on promoting family togetherness, keeping family bonds alive and creating family memories. Predictions for the future of family travel are shaped by changes in demography and social structures. With global mobility families are increasingly geographically dispersed and new family markets are emerging. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the trends that shape the understanding of families and family tourism. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines ten trends that the authors as experts in the field identify of importance and significance for the future of family tourism. Findings – What emerges is that the future of family tourism lies in capturing the increasing heterogeneity, fluidity and mobility of the family market. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the understanding about the changes taking place in family tourism and what it means to the tourism industry in the future.

  9. Development and application of a methodology for the analysis of significant human related event trends in nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, H.Y.

    1981-01-01

    A methodology is developed to identify and flag significant trends related to the safety and availability of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The development is intended to aid in reducing likelihood of human errors. To assure that the methodology can be easily adapted to various types of classification schemes of operation data, a data bank classified by the Transient Analysis Classification and Evaluation (TRACE) scheme is selected for the methodology. The significance criteria for human-initiated events affecting the systems and for events caused by human deficiencies were developed. Clustering analysis was used to verify the learning trend in multidimensional histograms. A computer code is developed based on the K-Means algorithm and applied to find the learning period in which error rates are monotonously decreasing with plant age. The Freeman-Tukey (F-T) deviates are used to select generic problems identified by a large positive value (here approximately over 2.0) for the deviate. The identified generic problems are: decision errors which are highly associated with reactor startup operations in the learning period of PWR plants (PWRs), response errors which are highly associated with Secondary Non-Nuclear Systems (SNS) in PWRs, and significant errors affecting systems and which are caused by response action are highly associated with startup reactor mode in BWRS

  10. Increases in the Pacific inflow to the Arctic from 1990 to 2015, and insights into seasonal trends and driving mechanisms from year-round Bering Strait mooring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodgate, Rebecca A.

    2018-01-01

    Year-round in situ Bering Strait mooring data (1990-2015) document a long-term increase (∼0.01 Sv/yr) in the annual mean transport of Pacific waters into the Arctic. Between 2002 and 2015, all annual mean transports (except 2005 and 2012) are greater than the previously accepted climatology (∼0.8 Sv). The record-length maximum (2014: 1.2 ± 0.1 Sv) is 70% higher than the record-length minimum (2001: 0.7 ± 0.1 Sv), corresponding to a reduction in the flushing time of the Chukchi Sea (to ∼4.5 months from ∼7.5 months). The transport increase results from stronger northward flows (not fewer southward flow events), yielding a 150% increase in kinetic energy, presumably with impacts on bottom suspension, mixing, and erosion. Curiously, we find no significant trends in annual mean flow in the Alaskan Coastal Current (ACC), although note that these data are only available 2002-2015. Record-length trends in annually integrated heat and freshwater fluxes (primarily driven by volume flux trends) are large (0.06 ± 0.05 × 1020 J/yr; 30 ± 20 km3/yr; relative to -1.9 °C and 34.8 psu), with heat flux lows in 2001 and 2012 (∼3 × 1020 J) and highs in 2007 and 2015 (∼5.5 × 1020 J), and a freshwater range of ∼2300 km3 (2001) to ∼3500 km3 (2014). High-flow year 2015 (volume transport ∼1.1 Sv) has the highest annual mean temperature recorded, ∼0.7 °C, astoundingly warmer than the record-length mean of 0.0 ± 0.2 °C, while low-flow year 2012 (∼0.8 Sv) is also remarkably cold (∼-0.6 °C), likely due to anomalously weak northward flow in January-March, partly driven by anomalously strong southward winds in March. A seasonal decomposition of properties of the main flow shows significant freshening in winter (∼0.03 psu/yr, January-March) likely due to sea-ice changes, but no trend (or perhaps salinization) in the rest of the year. A seasonal warming trend in the strait proper in May and June (∼0.04 °C/yr) is reflected in a trend to earlier arrival (0.9

  11. Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa

    2018-05-01

    Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

  12. Trend analysis of body weight parameters, mortality, and incidence of spontaneous tumors in Tg.rasH2 mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paranjpe, Madhav G; Denton, Melissa D; Vidmar, Tom; Elbekai, Reem H

    2014-01-01

    Carcinogenicity studies have been performed in conventional 2-year rodent studies for at least 3 decades, whereas the short-term carcinogenicity studies in transgenic mice, such as Tg.rasH2, have only been performed over the last decade. In the 2-year conventional rodent studies, interlinked problems, such as increasing trends in the initial body weights, increased body weight gains, high incidence of spontaneous tumors, and low survival, that complicate the interpretation of findings have been well established. However, these end points have not been evaluated in the short-term carcinogenicity studies involving the Tg.rasH2 mice. In this article, we present retrospective analysis of data obtained from control groups in 26-week carcinogenicity studies conducted in Tg.rasH2 mice since 2004. Our analysis showed statistically significant decreasing trends in initial body weights of both sexes. Although the terminal body weights did not show any significant trends, there was a statistically significant increasing trend toward body weight gains, more so in males than in females, which correlated with increasing trends in the food consumption. There were no statistically significant alterations in mortality trends. In addition, the incidence of all common spontaneous tumors remained fairly constant with no statistically significant differences in trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

  13. Cancer burden trends in Umbria region using a joinpoint regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giuseppe Michele Masanotti

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION. The analysis of the epidemiological data on cancer is an important tool to control and evaluate the outcomes of primary and secondary prevention, the effectiveness of health care and, in general, all cancer control activities. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The aim of the this paper is to analyze the cancer mortality in the Umbria region from 1978 to 2009 and incidence from 1994-2008. Sex and site-specific trends for standardized rates were analyzed by "joinpoint regression", using the surveillance epidemiology and end results (SEER software. RESULTS. Applying the jointpoint analyses by sex and cancer site, to incidence spanning from 1994 to 2008 and mortality from 1978 to 2009 for all sites, both in males and females, a significant joinpoint for mortality was found; moreover the trend shape was similar and the joinpoint years were very close. In males standardized rate significantly increased up to 1989 by 1.23% per year and significantly decreased thereafter by -1.31%; among females the mortality rate increased in average of 0.78% (not significant per year till 1988 and afterward significantly decreased by -0.92% per year. Incidence rate showed different trends among sexes. In males was practically constant over the period studied (not significant increase 0.14% per year, in females significantly increased by 1.49% per year up to 2001 and afterward slowly decreased (-0.71% n.s. estimated annual percent change − EAPC. CONCLUSIONS. For all sites combined trends for mortality decreased since late '80s, both in males and females; such behaviour is in line with national and European Union data. This work shows that, even compared to health systems that invest more resources, the Umbria public health system achieved good health outcomes.

  14. Future role and significance of space activities in reflection of global social, technological and economic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diekmann, Andreas; Richarz, Hans.-Peter

    The paper describes the interrelation of space activities and global socio-economic trends like "globalisation of markets" and "renaissance of fine arts". The interrelation reveals the economic strategic, technological and scientific dimension of space activities and their benefits to mankind. Then, the significance and perspectives of space activities in these dimensions are examined in more detail. The paper calls (1) for a more visible initiative to employ space activities to tackle urgent questions of global change and development, and (2) for a stronger impetus to secure European economic position in space sector as a key industry of the 21st century.

  15. Increase in Utilization of Afterhours Medical Imaging: A Study of Three Canadian Academic Centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhry, Shivani; Dhalla, Irfan; Lebovic, Gerald; Rogalla, Patrik; Dowdell, Timothy

    2015-11-01

    The objectives of our study were to assess trends in afterhours medical imaging utilization for emergency department (ED) and inpatient (IP) patient populations from 2006-2013, including analysis by modality and specialty and with adjustment for patient volume. For this retrospective study, we reviewed the number of CT, MRI, and ultrasound studies performed for the ED and IP patients during the afterhours time period (5pm - 8am on weekdays and 24 hours on weekends and statutory holidays) from 2006-2013 at three different Canadian academic hospitals. We used the Jonckheere-Terpstra (JT) test to determine statistical significance of imaging and patient volume trends. A regression model was used to examine whether there was an increasing trend over time in the volume of imaging tests per 1000 patients. For all three sites from 2006-2013 during the afterhours time period: There was a statistically significant increasing trend in total medical imaging volume, which also held true when the volumes were assessed by modality and by specialty. There was a statistically significant increasing trend in ED and IP patient volume. When medical imaging volumes were adjusted for patient volumes, there was a statistically significant increasing trend in imaging being performed per patient. Afterhours medical imaging volumes demonstrated a statistically significant increasing trend at all three sites from 2006-2013 when assessed by total volume, modality, and specialty. During the same time period and at all three sites, the ED and IP patient volumes also demonstrated a statistically significant increasing trend with more medical imaging, however, being performed per patient. Copyright © 2015 Canadian Association of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satyamurty, Prakki; de Castro, Aline Anderson; Tota, Julio; da Silva Gularte, Lucia Eliane; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar

    2010-01-01

    Rainfall series at 18 stations along the major rivers of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, having data since 1920s or 1930s, are analyzed to verify if there are appreciable long-term trends. Annual, rainy-season, and dry-season rainfalls are individually analyzed for each station and for the region as a whole. Some stations showed positive trends and some negative trends. The trends in the annual rainfall are significant at only six stations, five of which reporting increasing trends (Barcelos, Belem, Manaus, Rio Branco, and Soure stations) and just one (Itaituba station) reporting decreasing trend. The climatological values of rainfall before and after 1970 show significant differences at six stations (Barcelos, Belem, Benjamin Constant, Iaurete, Itaituba, and Soure). The region as a whole shows an insignificant and weak downward trend; therefore, we cannot affirm that the rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin is experiencing a significant change, except at a few individual stations. Subregions with upward and downward trends are interspersed in space from the far eastern Amazon to western Amazon. Most of the seasonal trends follow the annual trends, thus, indicating a certain consistency in the datasets and analysis.

  17. Temporal trend analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Need, E.A.

    1994-01-01

    Statistical analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data at a uranium hexafluoride processing facility showed a statistically significant increase in the concentration of gross beta activity in monitor wells downgradient of surface impounds storing calcium fluoride sludge and high pH water. Because evidence of leakage had not been detected in lysimeters installed beneath the impounds, the operator sought an evaluation of other potential causes of the result, including natural variability. This study determined that all five data sets showed either long-term excursionary (spike-like), or seasonal forms of temporal variation. Gross beta had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that almost appeared to be seasonal. Gross alpha had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Specific conductance had both upward and downward long-term trends but no other variations. pH had a downward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Fluoride had a downward long-term trend without excursions but with clear seasonal variations. The gross beta result that appeared to be a significant change was a spike event on the upward long-term trend

  18. Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

    KAUST Repository

    Sanz-Martí n, Marina; Pitt, Kylie A.; Condon, Robert H.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Novaes de Santana, Charles; Duarte, Carlos M.

    2016-01-01

    Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

  19. Flawed citation practices facilitate the unsubstantiated perception of a global trend toward increased jellyfish blooms

    KAUST Repository

    Sanz-Martín, Marina

    2016-06-24

    Speculation over a global rise in jellyfish populations has become widespread in the scientific literature, but until recently the purported ‘global increase’ had not been tested. Here we present a citation analysis of peer-reviewed literature to track the evolution of the current perception of increases in jellyfish and identify key papers involved in its establishment. Trend statements and citation threads were reviewed and arranged in a citation network. Trend statements were assessed according their degree of affirmation and spatial scale, and the appropriateness of the citations used to support statements was assessed. Analyses showed that 48.9% of publications misinterpreted the conclusions of cited sources, with a bias towards claiming jellyfish populations are increasing, with a single review having the most influence on the network. Collectively, these disparities resulted in a network based on unsubstantiated statements and citation threads. As a community, we must ensure our statements about scientific findings in general are accurately substantiated and carefully communicated such that incorrect perceptions, as in the case of jellyfish blooms, do not develop in the absence of rigorous testing. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd

  20. Increased river alkalinization in the Eastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaushal, Sujay S; Likens, Gene E; Utz, Ryan M; Pace, Michael L; Grese, Melissa; Yepsen, Metthea

    2013-09-17

    The interaction between human activities and watershed geology is accelerating long-term changes in the carbon cycle of rivers. We evaluated changes in bicarbonate alkalinity, a product of chemical weathering, and tested for long-term trends at 97 sites in the eastern United States draining over 260,000 km(2). We observed statistically significant increasing trends in alkalinity at 62 of the 97 sites, while remaining sites exhibited no significant decreasing trends. Over 50% of study sites also had statistically significant increasing trends in concentrations of calcium (another product of chemical weathering) where data were available. River alkalinization rates were significantly related to watershed carbonate lithology, acid deposition, and topography. These three variables explained ~40% of variation in river alkalinization rates. The strongest predictor of river alkalinization rates was carbonate lithology. The most rapid rates of river alkalinization occurred at sites with highest inputs of acid deposition and highest elevation. The rise of alkalinity in many rivers throughout the Eastern U.S. suggests human-accelerated chemical weathering, in addition to previously documented impacts of mining and land use. Increased river alkalinization has major environmental implications including impacts on water hardness and salinization of drinking water, alterations of air-water exchange of CO2, coastal ocean acidification, and the influence of bicarbonate availability on primary production.

  1. Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

    2005-11-01

    A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

  2. Multiple sclerosis in the province of Ferrara : evidence for an increasing trend.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granieri, E; Economou, N-T; De Gennaro, R; Tola, M R; Caniatti, L; Govoni, V; Fainardi, E; Casetta, I

    2007-12-01

    Epidemiological studies on the distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) conducted in the Mediterranean area in the last two decades have disclosed a significant increase in frequency of the disease, indicating caution when a latitude-related model of MS is accepted. Previous descriptive surveys in the province of Ferrara, northern Italy, carried out by our own epidemiological research group, have established that this area is at high risk for MS. To confirm the above assumption and to update MS frequency estimates in this area. We conducted a community-based intensive prevalence and incidence study, by adopting a complete enumeration approach. On December 31, 2004, 423 patients (300 women and 123 men) suffering from definite or probable MS (Poser's criteria) living in the province of Ferrara, yielded a crude prevalence rate of 120.93 (95 % CI, 110.05-134.23) per 100,000, 164.26 for women and 73.59 for men. The average incidence from 1990 to 2003 was 4.35 per 100,000 (95 % CI, 3.77-4.99), 5.91 for women and 2.63 for men. The incidence rate,which was relatively stable during the previous 25 years (1965-1989) with a mean rate of 2.3 per 100,000, increased to a value of 3.39 per 100,000 in the period 1990-1994, 4.09 per 100,000 in the period 1995-1999 and 3.84 per 100,000 in the period 2000-2003. These results confirm that in Ferrara MS occurs more frequently than suggested by the geographic- related distribution model and, based on other recent national surveys, support the view that northern Italy is a high-risk area for the disease. The marked increase in MS prevalence rate, in comparison with previous investigations, is in part due to the increasing survival of patients as a result of improved supportive care and the accumulation of new incidence cases owing to the reduction in diagnostic latency for better quality of neurological diagnostic procedures. The incidence in the province of Ferrara was found to slowly change with an incremental trend,which cannot only be

  3. Trends in the training of female urology residents in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Katherine; Tennankore, Karthik; Cox, Ashley

    2017-12-22

    There is limited research on why females do or do not choose a career in urology. Considering the increasing proportion of female medical students, we assessed for trends in female applicants to urology programs in Canada and their post-residency career choices. Data from the Canadian Residency Matching Service (CaRMS) was used (1998-2015). Trends in the proportions of females applying and matching to surgical subspecialties, and applying and matching to urology were computed. Surveys were sent to urology program directors to assess female residents' chosen career paths over the last decade. A significant increasing trend in the proportion of females applying to urology as their first choice program was found (0.19 in 1998-99 to 0.27 in 2012-15; p=0.04). An increasing trend in the proportion of females successfully matching to urology was found, although it was not statistically significant (0.13 in 1998-99 to 0.24 in 2012-15; p=0.07). This was in keeping with the trends found for surgical programs overall. Female graduates choose a variety of career paths with urogynecology being the most common fellowship (26%). The last two decades has seen an increase in the proportion of female students applying to urology in Canada. Female urology graduates pursue a variety of career paths. It remains imperative that both female and male medical students have early exposure and education about our subspecialty to ensure we continue to recruit the most talented candidates.

  4. Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

    2014-05-01

    simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

  5. Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

    2017-08-01

    In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

  6. Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

    1999-02-01

    The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

  7. Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

    2018-05-15

    Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

  8. Changing trends in diabetes mellitus in pregnancy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Khalifeh, A

    2014-02-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify any changing trends in the incidence and caesarean section (CS) rate of pre-gestational diabetes mellitus (DM) and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) over a 10- year period, between 1999 and 2008. Although the incidence of pre-gestational DM has not significantly changed over the course of the last 10 years, there is an obvious rising trend in the incidence of GDM. Despite an increase in the overall CS rate during this time period, a parallel increase in the CS rate has not been observed among women whose pregnancies are complicated either by gestational or by pre-gestational diabetes (PGD).

  9. Quantitative Communication Research: Review, Trends, and Critique

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy R. Levine

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Trends in quantitative communication research are reviewed. A content analysis of 48 articles reporting original communication research published in 1988-1991 and 2008-2011 is reported. Survey research and self-report measurement remain common approaches to research. Null hypothesis significance testing remains the dominant approach to statistical analysis. Reporting the shapes of distributions, estimates of statistical power, and confidence intervals remain uncommon. Trends over time include the increased popularity of health communication and computer mediated communication as topics of research, and increased attention to mediator and moderator variables. The implications of these practices for scientific progress are critically discussed, and suggestions for the future are provided.

  10. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Magera

    Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

  11. Century-long increasing trend and variability of dissolved organic carbon export from the Mississippi River basin driven by natural and anthropogenic forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Wei; Tian, Hanqin; Cai, Wei-Jun; Lohrenz, Steven E.; Hopkinson, Charles S.; Huang, Wei-Jen; Yang, Jia; Tao, Bo; Pan, Shufen; He, Ruoying

    2016-09-01

    There has been considerable debate as to how natural forcing and anthropogenic activities alter the timing and magnitude of the delivery of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to the coastal ocean, which has ramifications for the ocean carbon budget, land-ocean interactions, and coastal life. Here we present an analysis of DOC export from the Mississippi River to the Gulf of Mexico during 1901-2010 as influenced by changes in climate, land use and management practices, atmospheric CO2, and nitrogen deposition, through the integration of observational data with a coupled hydrologic/biogeochemical land model. Model simulations show that DOC export in the 2000s increased more than 40% since the 1900s. For the recent three decades (1981-2010), however, our simulated DOC export did not show a significant increasing trend, which is consistent with observations by U.S. Geological Survey. Our factorial analyses suggest that land use and land cover change, including land management practices (LMPs: i.e., fertilization, irrigation, tillage, etc.), were the dominant contributors to the century-scale trend of rising total riverine DOC export, followed by changes in atmospheric CO2, nitrogen deposition, and climate. Decadal and interannual variations of DOC export were largely attributed to year-to-year climatic variability and extreme flooding events, which have been exacerbated by human activity. LMPs show incremental contributions to DOC increase since the 1960s, indicating the importance of sustainable agricultural practices in coping with future environmental changes such as extreme flooding events. Compared to the observational-based estimate, the modeled DOC export was 20% higher, while DOC concentrations were slightly lower. Further refinements in model structure and input data sets should enable reductions in uncertainties in our prediction of century-long trends in DOC.

  12. Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

    2018-05-01

    A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

  13. Natural gas 1995: Issues and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-11-01

    Natural Gas 1995: Issues and Trends addresses current issues affecting the natural gas industry and markets. Highlights of recent trends include: Natural gas wellhead prices generally declined throughout 1994 and for 1995 averages 22% below the year-earlier level; Seasonal patterns of natural gas production and wellhead prices have been significantly reduced during the past three year; Natural gas production rose 15% from 1985 through 1994, reaching 18.8 trillion cubic feet; Increasing amounts of natural gas have been imported; Since 1985, lower costs of producing and transporting natural gas have benefitted consumers; Consumers may see additional benefits as States examine regulatory changes aimed at increasing efficiency; and, The electric industry is being restructured in a fashion similar to the recent restructuring of the natural gas industry.

  14. Gender Trends in Radiology Authorship: A 35-Year Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piper, Crystal L; Scheel, John R; Lee, Christoph I; Forman, Howard P

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe trends over time in female authorship in the radiology literature and to investigate the tendency of female first authors to publish with female senior authors. Data on the gender of academic physician authors based in the United States for all major articles published in three general radiology journals--Radiology, AJR, and Academic Radiology--were collected and analyzed for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant trends over time, and a chi-square test of independence was performed to determine significant relations between the genders of first and senior authors. The gender of 4182 of 4217 (99.17%) authors with MD degrees was determined. The proportion of original research articles published by women as first authors increased from 8.33% in 1978 to 32.35% in 2013 (p < 0.001). The proportion of original research articles with women as senior authors increased from 6.75% in 1978 to 21.90% in 2013 (p < 0.001). Female first and senior authorship increased significantly over time (first author, p < 0.001; senior author, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant relation between the genders of first and senior authors of original research articles and guest editorials (p < 0.001). Over 35 years, there was a statistically significant upward linear trend of female physician participation in authorship of academic radiology literature. Female first authors were more likely to publish with female senior authors.

  15. Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

    2018-02-01

    This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

  16. Trends in thermal discomfort indices over western coastal cities of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desai, Manasi S.; Dhorde, Amit G.

    2018-02-01

    The present research aimed at analyzing temporal trends in thermal discomfort indices for a period of 46 years from 1969 to 2014 over western coastal region of India for seven urban centers during the months of pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Direct thermal discomfort indices employed for this purpose were thermo-hygrometric index (THI) and heat index (HI). Statistical techniques applied for obtaining temporal trends were linear regression model and Mann-Kendall (MK) rank test. Statistical significance of the obtained trends was evaluated at 95% confidence level. Sequential MK (SQ-MK) test was used for change point detection. To investigate actual incidences of thermal discomfort, daily index values were averaged for standard meteorological weeks (SMWs) over the study period and decadal percentage of thermal discomfort during SMWs was estimated. Trend analysis of selected meteorological parameters such as dry bulb temperature (DBT), wet bulb temperature (WBT), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) were investigated, which might be responsible for variation in thermal discomfort over the period. The results obtained depicted significant increase in thermal discomfort over the cities located on the southern part of west coast, while significant increase was observed during monsoon season months compared to pre-monsoon season. Decadal variation in percentage of SMWs falling in various discomfort categories was studied. At majority of the stations, moderate and high-risk SMWs have increased over the last two decades. The results of change point detection for THI and HI denoted significant increase at most of the stations after 1990s. The study validates increase in thermal discomfort vulnerability, particularly at thriving urban centers of western coastal region of India.

  17. Increasing Trend of Fatal Falls in Older Adults in the United States, 1992 to 2005: Coding Practice or Reporting Quality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharrazi, Rebekah J; Nash, Denis; Mielenz, Thelma J

    2015-09-01

    To investigate whether changes in death certificate coding and reporting practices explain part or all of the recent increase in the rate of fatal falls in adults aged 65 and older in the United States. Trends in coding and reporting practices of fatal falls were evaluated under mortality coding schemes for International Classification of Diseases (ICD), Ninth Revision (1992-1998) and Tenth Revision (1999-2005). United States, 1992 to 2005. Individuals aged 65 and older with falls listed as the underlying cause of death (UCD) on their death certificates. The primary outcome was annual fatal falls rates per 100,000 U.S. residents aged 65 and older. Coding practice was assessed through analysis of trends in rates of specific UCD fall ICD e-codes over time. Reporting quality was assessed by examining changes in the location on the death certificate where fall e-codes were reported, in particular, the percentage of fall e-codes recorded in the proper location on the death certificate. Fatal falls rates increased over both time periods: 1992 to 1998 and 1999 to 2005. A single falls e-code was responsible for the increasing trend of fatal falls overall from 1992 to 1998 (E888, other and unspecified fall) and from 1999 to 2005 (W18, other falls on the same level), whereas trends for other falls e-codes remained stable. Reporting quality improved steadily throughout the study period. Better reporting quality, not coding practices, contributed to the increasing rate of fatal falls in older adults in the United States from 1992 to 2005. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

  18. Streamflow Trends and Responses to Climate Variability and Land Cover Change in South Dakota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karishma Niloy Kibria

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Trends in high, moderate, and low streamflow conditions from United States Geological Survey (USGS gauging stations were evaluated for a period of 1951–2013 for 18 selected watersheds in South Dakota (SD using a modified Mann-Kendall test. Rainfall trends from 21 rainfall observation stations located within 20-km of the streamflow gauging stations were also evaluated for the same study period. The concept of elasticity was used to examine sensitivity of streamflow to variation in rainfall and land cover (i.e., grassland in the study watersheds. Results indicated significant increasing trends in seven of the studied streams (of which five are in the east and two are located in the west, nine with slight increasing trends, and two with decreasing trends for annual streamflow. About half of the streams exhibited significant increasing trends in low and moderate flow conditions compared to high flow conditions. Ten rainfall stations showed slight increasing trends and seven showed decreasing trends for annual rainfall. Streamflow elasticity analysis revealed that streamflow was highly influenced by rainfall across the state (five of eastern streams and seven of western streams. Based on this analysis, a 10% increase in annual rainfall would result in 11%–30% increase in annual streamflow in more than 60% of SD streams. While streamflow appears to be more sensitive to rainfall across the state, high sensitivity of streamflow to rapid decrease in grassland area was detected in two western watersheds. This study provides valuable insight into of the relationship between streamflow, climate, and grassland cover in SD and would support further research and stakeholder decision making about water resources.

  19. The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gershunov, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Iacobellis, S.F.

    2009-01-01

    Most of the great California-Nevada heat waves can be classified into primarily daytime or nighttime events depending on whether atmospheric conditions are dry or humid. A rash of nighttime-accentuated events in the last decade was punctuated by an unusually intense case in July 2006, which was the largest heat wave on record (1948-2006). Generally, there is a positive trend in heat wave activity over the entire region that is expressed most strongly and clearly in nighttime rather than daytime temperature extremes. This trend in nighttime heat wave activity has intensified markedly since the 1980s and especially since 2000. The two most recent nighttime heat waves were also strongly expressed in extreme daytime temperatures. Circulations associated with great regional heat waves advect hot air into the region. This air can be dry or moist, depending on whether a moisture source is available, causing heat waves to be expressed preferentially during day or night. A remote moisture source centered within a marine region west of Baja California has been increasing in prominence because of gradual sea surface warming and a related increase in atmospheric humidity. Adding to the very strong synoptic dynamics during the 2006 heat wave were a prolonged stream of moisture from this southwestern source and, despite the heightened humidity, an environment in which afternoon convection was suppressed, keeping cloudiness low and daytime temperatures high. The relative contributions of these factors and possible relations to global warming are discussed. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

  20. Large blackouts in North America: Historical trends and policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hines, Paul; Apt, Jay; Talukdar, Sarosh

    2009-01-01

    Using data from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) for 1984-2006, we find several trends. We find that the frequency of large blackouts in the United States has not decreased over time, that there is a statistically significant increase in blackout frequency during peak hours of the day and during late summer and mid-winter months (although non-storm-related risk is nearly constant through the year) and that there is strong statistical support for the previously observed power-law statistical relationship between blackout size and frequency. We do not find that blackout sizes and blackout durations are significantly correlated. These trends hold even after controlling for increasing demand and population and after eliminating small events, for which the data may be skewed by spotty reporting. Trends in blackout occurrences, such as those observed in the North American data, have important implications for those who make investment and policy decisions in the electricity industry. We provide a number of examples that illustrate how these trends can inform benefit-cost analysis calculations. Also, following procedures used in natural disaster planning we use the observed statistical trends to calculate the size of the 100-year blackout, which for North America is 186,000 MW.

  1. Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.; Jones, S. D.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.; Ahlström, A.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H.; Heinze, C.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Arneth, A.; Bonan, G.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Ellis, R.; Gloor, M.; Peylin, P.; Piao, S. L.; Le Quéré, C.; Smith, B.; Zhu, Z.; Myneni, R.

    2015-02-01

    The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a small significant trend of -0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr-1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of -0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-2 - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (-0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2), with almost no trend over the northern land region

  2. Increasing trend of `Break-Monsoon` conditions over India — Role of ocean–atmosphere processes in the Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Krishnan, R.; Sankar, S.; Unnikrishnan, A.S.; Pai, D.S.

    integrated moisture transport; the findings also point to the role of sea surface temperature (SST) warming trend (0.015 degrees C year sup(-1)) in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean (IO) in inducing anomalous changes favorable for the increased propensity...

  3. Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Taxak

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

  4. Canadian population trends in leisure-time physical activity levels, 1981-1998.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruce, Marny J; Katzmarzyk, Peter T

    2002-12-01

    Age, sex, geographic and temporal trends in leisure-time physical activity levels were examined using data from five national surveys conducted between 1981 and 1998. Physical activity energy expenditure (AEE) was higher among men compared to women, and in younger versus older adults. AEE increased from Eastern to Western Canada, with a significant temporal trend of increasing AEE. The prevalence of physical inactivity (expending importance of population-level physical activity surveillance and interventions.

  5. Global Trends in Seasonality of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI, 1982–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assaf Anyamba

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A 30-year series of global monthly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI imagery derived from the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS NDVI3g archive was analyzed for the presence of trends in changing seasonality. Using the Seasonal Trend Analysis (STA procedure, over half (56.30% of land surfaces were found to exhibit significant trends. Almost half (46.10% of the significant trends belonged to three classes of seasonal trends (or changes. Class 1 consisted of areas that experienced a uniform increase in NDVI throughout the year, and was primarily associated with forested areas, particularly broadleaf forests. Class 2 consisted of areas experiencing an increase in the amplitude of the annual seasonal signal whereby increases in NDVI in the green season were balanced by decreases in the brown season. These areas were found primarily in grassland and shrubland regions. Class 3 was found primarily in the Taiga and Tundra biomes and exhibited increases in the annual summer peak in NDVI. While no single attribution of cause could be determined for each of these classes, it was evident that they are primarily found in natural areas (as opposed to anthropogenic land cover conversions and that they are consistent with climate-related ameliorations of growing conditions during the study period.

  6. Trends in preterm birth: singleton and multiple pregnancies in the Netherlands, 2000-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaaf, J M; Mol, B W J; Abu-Hanna, A; Ravelli, A C J

    2011-09-01

    Several studies have reported increasing trends in preterm birth in developed countries, mainly attributable to an increase in medically indicated preterm births. Our aim was to describe trends in preterm birth among singleton and multiple pregnancies in the Netherlands. Prospective cohort study. Nationwide study. We studied 1,451,246 pregnant women from 2000 to 2007. We assessed trends in preterm birth. We subdivided preterm birth into spontaneous preterm birth after premature prelabour rupture of membranes (pPROM), medically indicated preterm birth and spontaneous preterm birth without pPROM. We performed analyses separately for singletons and multiples. The primary outcome was preterm birth, defined as birth before 37 weeks of gestation, with very preterm birth (birth was 7.7% and the risk of very preterm birth was 1.3%. In singleton pregnancies, the preterm birth risk decreased significantly from 6.4% to 6.0% (P birth without pPROM (3.6-3.1%, P birth risk increased significantly (47.3-47.7%, P = 0.047), mainly as a result of medically indicated preterm birth, which increased from 15.0% to 17.9% (P birth risk in singleton pregnancies decreased significantly over the years. The trend of increasing preterm birth risk reported in other countries was only observed in (medically indicated) preterm birth in multiple pregnancies. © 2011 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology © 2011 RCOG.

  7. Observed precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment from 1951 to 2002

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUBuda; JIANGTong; SHIYafeng; StefanBECKER; MracoGEMMER

    2004-01-01

    The monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment have been detected through analysis of 51 meteorological stations' data between 1950-2002 provided by National Meteorological Administration. Results reveal that: 1) Summer precipitation in the Yangtze river catchment shows significant increasing tendency. The Poyanghu lake basin, Dongtinghu lake basin and Taihu lake basin in the middle and lower reaches are the places showing significant positive trends. Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches experienced an abrupt change in the year 1992; 2) The monthly precipitation in months just adjoining to summer shows decreasing tendency in the Yangtze river catchment. The upper and middle reaches in Jialingjiang river basin and Hanshui river basin are the places showing significant negative trends; 3) Extreme precipitation events show an increasing tendency in most places, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river catchment.

  8. Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

    2015-04-01

    This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

  9. Trends in the leading causes of death in Korea, 1983-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Daroh; Ha, Mina; Song, Inmyung

    2014-12-01

    This study aimed to analyze trends in the 10 leading causes of death in Korea from 1983 to 2012. Death rates were derived from the Korean Statistics Information Service database and age-adjusted to the 2010 population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the points when statistically significant changes occurred in the trends. Between 1983 and 2012, the age-standardized death rate (ASR) from all causes decreased by 61.6% for men and 51.2% for women. ASRs from malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and transport accidents increased initially before decreasing. ASRs from hypertensive diseases, heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases and diseases of the liver showed favorable trends (ASR % change: -94.4%, -53.8%, -76.0%, and -78.9% for men, and -77.1%, -36.5%, -67.8%, and -79.9% for women, respectively). ASRs from pneumonia decreased until the mid-1990s and thereafter increased. ASRs from intentional self-harm increased persistently since around 1990 (ASR % change: 122.0% for men and 217.4% for women). In conclusion, death rates from all causes in Korea decreased significantly in the last three decades except in the late 1990s. Despite the great strides made in the overall mortality, temporal trends varied widely by cause. Mortality trends for malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, pneumonia and intentional self-harm were unfavorable.

  10. Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hůnová, Iva; Maznová, Jana; Kurfürst, Pavel

    2014-01-01

    We present the temporal trends and spatial changes of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests based on records from long-term monitoring. A statistically significant trend for sulphur was detected at most of the sites measuring for wet, dry, and total deposition fluxes and at many of these the trend was also present for the period after 2000. The spatial pattern of the changes in sulphur deposition flux between 1995 and 2011 shows the decrease over the entire forested area in a wide range of 18.1–0.2 g m −2 year −1 with the most pronounced improvement in formerly most impacted regions. Nitrogen still represents a considerable stress in many areas. The value of nitrogen deposition flux of 1 g m −2 year −1 is exceeded over a significant portion of the country. On an equivalent basis, the ion ratios of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− and NH 4 + /SO 4 2− in precipitation show significantly increasing trends in time similarly to those of pH. -- Highlights: • Significant decrease of sulphur deposition at most of sites has been recorded. • Nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests. • Significantly increasing trends of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− , NH 4 + /SO 4 2− , and pH in precipitation. -- While sulphur deposition significantly decreased with the highest improvement in formerly most affected areas, nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests

  11. North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

    2009-04-01

    Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

  12. Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Incidence in Panama, Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Politis, Michael; Higuera, Gladys; Chang, Lissette Raquel; Gomez, Beatriz; Bares, Juan; Motta, Jorge

    2015-06-01

    Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight

  13. Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

    2018-04-01

    The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It

  14. The limited effect of increasing educational attainment on childlessness trends in twentieth-century Europe, women born 1916–65

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujouan, Eva; Brzozowska, Zuzanna; Zeman, Kryštof

    2016-01-01

    During the twentieth century, trends in childlessness varied strongly across European countries while educational attainment grew continuously across them. Using census and large-scale survey data from 13 European countries, we investigated the relationship between these two factors among women born between 1916 and 1965. Up to the 1940 birth cohort, the share of women childless at age 40+ decreased universally. Afterwards, the trends diverged across countries. The results suggest that the overall trends were related mainly to changing rates of childlessness within educational groups and only marginally to changes in the educational composition of the population. Over time, childlessness levels of the medium-educated and high-educated became closer to those of the low-educated, but the difference in level between the two better educated groups remained stable in Western and Southern Europe and increased slightly in the East. PMID:27545484

  15. Trends in Human Papillomavirus-Related Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Incidence, Vermont 1999-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owosho, Adepitan A; Wiley, Rashidah; Stansbury, Tessie; Gbadamosi, Semiu O; Ryder, Jon S

    2018-02-09

    This study examines trends in age-adjusted incidence rates of human papillomavirus (HPV)-related oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) in comparison to oral cavity proper squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) in the population of Vermont from 1999 to 2013. Data on cases of oral and pharynx cancers diagnosed in Vermont between 1999 and 2013 were obtained from the Vermont cancer registry. The age-adjusted incidence rates and annual percentage change of HPV-related OPSCC and OSCC were calculated using Joinpoint trend analysis. Four hundred and thirty-one cases of HPV-related OPSCC were diagnosed from 1999 to 2013. Males constituted 83% (P < 0.0001) of the cases and the 6th decade of life marked the highest incidence. The overall age-adjusted incidence rates for HPV-related OPSCC significantly increased (from 2.39 to 3.86 per 100,000, P < 0.0001). In males, it significantly increased (from 3.62 to 6.93 per 100,000, P < 0.0001), while in females it remained stable (from 1.18 to 1.02 per 100,000, P = 0.28) during 1999-2013. The average rate of HPV-related OPSCC significantly increased by 4.4% annually (P = 0.004). In males the average rate significantly increased by 5.3% annually (P = 0.001) and in females the rate increased by 0.37% annually (P = 0.87). In contrast, age-adjusted overall incidence rates for OSCC significantly decreased (from 3.99 to 3.35 per 100,000, P = 0.018). The overall rate of OSCC decreased by 0.96% annually (P = 0.37) and the highest incidence of cases was in the 7th decade of life. In conclusion, there was an increasing trend of HPV-related OPSCC, specifically in males, and there appears to be a decreasing trend of OSCC in Vermont.

  16. Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Barzin

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

  17. 20 year long term air quality trends in Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luria, M.

    2017-12-01

    The Israeli air monitoring network was established in the mid 1990's with dozens of measuring sites near most populated areas. During these past 20 years the Israel economy has increased significantly. The population grew by 30%, energy consumption and power generation by more than 40% and the number of motor vehicles increased by nearly 50%. Most of the fossil energy is consumed by the electric power industry that has changed immensely during this period. Until the early 2000's the vast majority of the electricity was generated from coal and heavy oil. However, during the last ten years natural gas has gradually becomes the major source for power generation and for most of the heavy industry. In the present study we examined the impact of these economic trends on the major criteria air pollution parameters; O3, NOx, SO2 and PM10. The analyses was based on the long term trend of median value (50th percentile) and the 90th percentile. The results revealed that SO2 levels throughout the country decreased to very low levels, with the 90th percentile near the detection limit. The levels of PM10, that are relatively high compare with other global regions, did not show any trend during the 20 year period. This is consistent with the fact that most particulate matter results from long range transport of dust from the surrounding deserts. The long term trend of NOx indicates a gradual and steady increase at most measuring sites, which is consistent with the increase of fossil fuel consumption. The increase in NOx levels is most likely the cause for the significant increase in O3 levels found at most sites in a few of them to levels that are considered as an environmental hazard.

  18. Corrective action program at the Krsko NPP. Trending and analysis of minor events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bach, B.; Kavsek, D.

    2007-01-01

    Industry and On-site Operating Experience has shown that the significant events, minor events and near misses all share something in common: latent weaknesses that result in failed barriers and the same or similar (root) causes for that failure. All these types of events differ only in their resulting consequences: minor events and near misses have no immediate or significant impact to plant safety or reliability. However, the significant events are usually preceded by a number of those kinds of events and could be prevented from occurring if the root cause(s) of these precursor events could be identified and eliminated. It would be therefore poor management to leave minor events and near misses unreported and unanalysed. Reporting and analysing of minor events allows detection of latent weaknesses that may indicate the need for improvement. The benefit of low level event analysis is that deficiencies can be found in barriers that normally go unchallenged and may not be known that they are ineffective in stopping a significant event. In addition, large numbers of minor events and near misses may increase the probability of occurrence of a significant event, which in itself is a sufficient reason for addressing these types of events. However, as it is not often practical neither feasible to perform a detailed root cause determination for every minor events, trending and trend analysis are used to identify and correct the causes prior to their resulting in a significant event. Trending is monitoring a change in frequency of similar minor events occurrence. Adverse trend is an increase in the frequency of minor events which are sorted by commonality such as common equipment failure, human factors, common or similar causal factors, activity etc. or worsening performance of processes that has been trending. The primary goal of any trending programme should be to identify an adverse trend early enough that the operating organization can initiate an investigation to help

  19. Administrative trends in U.S. dental schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Martin M; Rodriguez, Angel; Chen, Rebecca Y; Fu, Earl; Liao, Shu-Yi; Karimbux, Nadeem Y

    2014-11-01

    The aims of this study were to analyze the administrative trends in U.S. dental schools at the beginning and end of a thirteen-year period and to identify the predictive factors for those changes. Administrative trends were measured by the difference in the number of major administrative positions for 1997 and 2010 reported in American Dental Education Association (ADEA) and American Dental Association (ADA) publications. Secondary measures (program length, student enrollment, and tuition) were also gathered. The mean numbers of administrative positions per school significantly increased over the study period, while the mean number of clinical science departments per school significantly decreased. The change in the number of directors was positively correlated with the change in student enrollment, but inversely correlated with the change in number of vice/associate/assistant deans. The change in the number of clinical science departments was positively correlated with changes in student enrollment and out-of-state tuition, but inversely correlated with the change in in-state tuition. The number of all departments per U.S. dental school significantly decreased in this period. The schools that had consolidation of clinical science departments were less likely to have increases in student enrollment and out-of-state tuition, but more likely to have increases in in-state tuition.

  20. Increasing trends in hospital care burden of atrial fibrillation in Korea, 2006 through 2015

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehoon; Yang, Pil-Sung; Jang, Eunsun

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Temporal changes in the healthcare burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) are less well known in rapidly ageing Asian countries. We examined trends in hospitalisations, costs, treatment patterns and outcomes related to AF in Korea. METHODS: Using the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS...... hospitalisations mainly due to ischaemic stroke and myocardial infarction decreased. The total cost of care increased even after adjustment for inflation from €68.4 million in 2006 to €388.4 million in 2015, equivalent to 0.78% of the Korean NHIS total expenditure. Overall in-hospital mortality decreased from 7...

  1. TRENDS IN URBAN STORM WATER QUALITY IN TALLINN AND INFLUENCES FROM STORMFLOW AND BASEFLOW

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bharat Maharjan

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Temporal trends provide a good interpretation of change in stormwater quality over time. This study aimed to analyse trends and influences due to stormflow and baseflow. Grab samples of 18-19 years from 1995 to 2014 recorded at outlets of 7 Tallinn watersheds were analysed for monotonic trend through seasonal Mann Kendall test for long-term, short-term, baseflow and stormflow. Statistically significant downward trends (P-value (p 0.05 and < 0.2 for 3 – SS, 1 – BOD, 1 – TN and 1 – TP were identified. Statistically significant long-term upward trends of pH were revealed in 5 basins, which reduced to 2 with 5 less significant upward trends over the 10 year period, indicating improvements in pH reduction. Härjapea has the highest pH without trend but it includes an upward trend of TN at p = 0.051. The highly possible causes for downward trends are street sweeping, sewer network improvement, decline in sub-urban agricultural areas, etc. The upward trend results of pH are related to increased alkalinisation due to acidic rain, weathering of carbonate rocks, sewage discharge and alkaline road dust. In most of the basins, stormflow has more influence on trends than baseflow.

  2. The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

  3. Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

    2018-04-01

    Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

  4. Statistical Analysis of Long-Term Trend of Performance, Production and Cultivated Area of 17 Field Crops Khorasan Razavi Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zareabyaneh

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Any planning for the future requires estimates of future conditions. It is possible to study changes over time series. In this study, changes of production and cultivated area of 17 field crops of Khorasan Razavi province in a 25-year period were determined with Mann - Kendall test, Sen’s Estimator Slope and linear regression. Analysis of the three tests showed that performance of 76.5% from yield, 88.2% from area under cultivation and 55.8% from agricultural production were significant at the 0.01 and 0.05 level. On the other hand, trend of yields 58.8% was increase, 17.7% was reduced and 23.5% was no significant trend. Similarly, trend of 23.5% from area under cultivation was acreage, 64.7% was reduction, and 11.8% was no significant trend. For production variable, 29.4% was significantly increased and 29.4% was significant reduction. More detailed analysis showed that performance, production and area under cultivation of three crops of cotton, grain and tomatoes increased significantly. Results of all three methods showed the highest trend of negatively performance and area under cultivation variation is related to pea and melon respectively. Furthermore, most of the positive trend in production of tomatoes and grain, performance in onions, potatoes and tomatoes and area under cultivation in tomato observed. The results showed that linear trend and the nonparametric tests of important products of province: wheat, barley, sugar beet, cotton, melons, watermelons and tomatoes in 0.01 were significant. This result shows the importance of these yields in gross state province product.

  5. Long-term trend analysis on total and extreme precipitation over Shasta Dam watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toride, Kinya; Cawthorne, Dylan L; Ishida, Kei; Kavvas, M Levent; Anderson, Michael L

    2018-06-01

    California's interconnected water system is one of the most advanced water management systems in the world, and understanding of long-term trends in atmospheric and hydrologic behavior has increasingly being seen as vital to its future well-being. Knowledge of such trends is hampered by the lack of long-period observation data and the uncertainty surrounding future projections of atmospheric models. This study examines historical precipitation trends over the Shasta Dam watershed (SDW), which lies upstream of one of the most important components of California's water system, Shasta Dam, using a dynamical downscaling methodology that can produce atmospheric data at fine time-space scales. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is employed to reconstruct 159years of long-term hourly precipitation data at 3km spatial resolution over SDW using the 20th Century Reanalysis Version 2c dataset. Trend analysis on this data indicates a significant increase in total precipitation as well as a growing intensity of extreme events such as 1, 6, 12, 24, 48, and 72-hour storms over the period of 1851 to 2010. The turning point of the increasing trend and no significant trend periods is found to be 1940 for annual precipitation and the period of 1950 to 1960 for extreme precipitation using the sequential Mann-Kendall test. Based on these analysis, we find the trends at the regional scale do not necessarily apply to the watershed-scale. The sharp increase in the variability of annual precipitation since 1970s is also detected, which implies an increase in the occurrence of extreme wet and dry conditions. These results inform long-term planning decisions regarding the future of Shasta Dam and California's water system. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Incidence Trend for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in the North Tunisian Population, 1998-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benhassine, Adel; Khadhra, Hajer Ben; Khiari, Houyem; Hsairi, Mohamed; Elgaaied, Amel Benammar

    2016-01-01

    In 2008, non-Hodgkin lymphoma ranked tenth among other malignancies worldwide with an incidence of around 5 cases per 100,000 in both genders. The latest available rates in Tunisia are from 2006. This study aimed to provide an update about NHL incidence for 2009 and its trend between 1998 and 2009 as well as a projection until 2024, using data from the Salah Azaiz Institute hospital registry and the Noth Tunisia cancer registry. In 2009, the NHL incidence in the north of Tunisia was 4.03 cases per 100,000, 4.97 for men and 3.10 for women. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) accounted for 63.2% of all NHL subtypes. Between 1998 and 2009, the overall trend showed no significant change. When we compared the trend between two periods (1998-2005 and 2005-2009), joinpoint regression showed a significant decrease of NHL incidence in the first period with an annual percentage change (APC) of -6.7% (95% CI:[-11.2%;-2%]), then the incidence significantly increased from 2005 to 2009 with an APC of 30.5% (95% CI: [16.1%; 46.6%]. The analyses of the different subtype trends showed a significant decrease in DLBCL incidence between 1998 and 2000 (APC:-21.5; 95% CI: [-31.4%;-10.2%]) then the incidence significantly increased between 2004 and 2007 (APC: 18.5; 95% CI: [3,6%;35.5%]). Joint point analysis of the age-period-cohort model projection showed a significant increase between 2002 and 2024 with an APC of 4.5% (%95 CI: [1.5%; 7.5%]). The estimated ASR for 2024 was 4.55/100 000 (95% CI: [3.37; 6.15]). This study revealed an overall steady trend in the incidence of NHL in northern Tunisia between 1998 and 2009. Projection showed an increase in the incidence in NHL in both genders which draw the attention to the national and worldwide burden of this malignancy.

  7. Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

    2018-02-01

    In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

  8. Trends in price and productivity in the fur sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henning Otte

    2016-01-01

    in the long term. The terms of trade - the ratio between output and input prices - is also unstable but with a clear negative long-term trend. The developments in prices and productivity cause high demands on management both on individual fur farms and further down the value chain.......Price and productivity are two important competitive factors for the fur skin production worldwide. In the paper it is demonstrated that there are significant long-term trends towards increasing productivity and decreasing price ratios. The trend follows the same pattern as for other agricultural...... products. The analysis is based on Danish conditions as a case. By using different measurement methods it is demonstrated that productivity is increasing in several places in fur value chain. The fur skin prices, which are largely determined in international markets, are both very volatile and decreasing...

  9. Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in a case-control study of oral squamous cell carcinoma and its increasing trend in northeastern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phusingha, Pensiri; Ekalaksananan, Tipaya; Vatanasapt, Patravoot; Loyha, Kulchaya; Promthet, Supannee; Kongyingyoes, Bunkerd; Patarapadungkit, Natcha; Chuerduangphui, Jureeporn; Pientong, Chamsai

    2017-06-01

    Human papillomavirus (HPV) is an independent risk factor for development of oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). This study aimed to investigate the role of HPV infection and the trend in percentage of HPV-associated OSCC over a 5-year period in northeastern Thailand. In this case-control study, 91 exfoliated oral cell samples and 80 lesion cell samples from OSCC cases and exfoliated oral cells from 100 age/gender-matched controls were collected. HPV infection was investigated by PCR using GP5+/GP6+ primers followed by HPV genotyping using reverse line blot hybridization. Quantitative RT-PCR was used to evaluate HPV oncogene transcription. Temporal trends of HPV infection were evaluated in archived formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) OSCC tissues using in situ hybridization. HPV DNA was found in 17.5% (14/80) of lesion samples from OSCC cases and 29.7% (27/91) of exfoliated oral cell samples from the same cases. These values were significantly higher than in exfoliated oral cell samples from controls (13%, 13/100). HPV-16 was the genotype most frequently found in OSCC cases (92.8%, 13/14 infected cases). Interestingly, HPV oncogene mRNA expression was detected and correlated with OSCC cases (P cases were positive for HPV E6/E7 mRNA expression. There was a trend of increasing percentage of HPV-associated OSCC from 2005 to 2010. This was especially so for females with well-differentiated tumors in specific tongue sub-sites. We suggest that HPV infection plays an important role in oral carcinogenesis in northeastern Thailand. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Wage Sorting Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bagger, Jesper; Vejlin, Rune Majlund; Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke

    Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001. The non......Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001....... The nonstationary wage sorting pattern is not due to compositional changes in the labor market, primarily occurs among high wage workers, and comprises 41 percent of the increase in the standard deviation of log real wages between 1980 and 2006. We show that the wage sorting trend is associated with worker...

  11. Primary pulmonary non-small cell carcinomas: the College of American Pathologists Interlaboratory Comparison Program confirms a significant trend toward subcategorization based upon fine-needle aspiration cytomorphology alone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yildiz-Aktas, Isil Z; Sturgis, Charles D; Barkan, Guliz A; Souers, Rhona J; Fraig, Mostafa M; Laucirica, Rodolfo; Khalbuss, Walid E; Moriarty, Ann T

    2014-01-01

    Context.-Subtyping of non-small cell lung carcinomas (NSCLCs) is necessary for optimal patient management with specific diagnoses triggering specific molecular tests and affecting therapy. Objective.-To assess the accuracy of the participants of the College of American Pathologists Interlaboratory Comparison Program in diagnosing and subtyping NSCLC fine-needle aspiration (FNA) slides, based on morphology alone, considering preparation and participant type and trends over time. Design.-The performance of program participants was reviewed for the 5-year period spanning 2007-2011. Lung FNA challenges with reference diagnoses of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) were evaluated for diagnostic concordance by using a nonlinear mixed model analysis. Results.-There were 10 493 pathologist and 6378 cytotechnologist responses with concordance rates of 97.4% and 97.9% for malignancy, respectively. Overall concordance rates for subcategorization were 54.6% for adenocarcinoma and 74.9% for SCC. For the exact reference diagnoses, pathologists performed better for adenocarcinoma and cytotechnologists performed better for SCC. Accurate subcategorization of adenocarcinomas significantly increased over time with 31.5% of adenocarcinomas classified as NSCLC in 2007 and 25.5% of adenocarcinomas classified as NSCLC in 2011 (P alone. During the study period, a statistically significant trend was confirmed toward greater accuracy of subcategorization of adenocarcinomas, suggesting that participants are cognizant of the impact that more specific cytomorphologic interpretations have in directing molecular triage and therapy.

  12. Temperature Trend Detection in Upper Indus Basin by Using Mann-Kendall Test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ateeq Ur Rauf

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and Climate change are commonly acknowledged as the most noteworthy environmental quandary the world is undergoing today. Contemporary studies have revealed that the Earth’s surface air temperature has augmented by 0.6°C – 0.8°C in the course of the 20th century, together with alterations in the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on detecting trends in seasonal temperature for the five selected stations in the Upper Indus Basin. The Mann-Kendall test was run at 5% significance level on time series data for each of the five stations during the time period, 1985 to 2014. The Standard Test Statistic (Zs indicates the presence of trend and whether it is increasing or decreasing. The analysis showed an increasing trend in mean monthly temperature at Astore, Gilgit and Gupiz in March and a decreasing trend for Astore, Drosh, Gilgit and Skardu in September. Gilgit and Gupiz showed unexpected increasing trend in October. This study concludes that the temperature starts increasing in March and stays elevated till the month of June and starts rising again in October thus resulting in expansion of summer season and prolonged glacial melting.

  13. Sixteen-Day Bedrest Significantly Increases Plasma Colloid Osmotic Pressure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hargens, Alan R.; Hsieh, S. T.; Murthy, G.; Ballard, R. E.; Convertino, V. A.; Wade, Charles E. (Technical Monitor)

    1994-01-01

    Upon exposure to microgravity, astronauts lose up to 10% of their total plasma volume, which may contribute to orthostatic intolerance after space flight. Because plasma colloid osmotic pressure (COP) is a primary factor maintaining plasma volume, our objective was to measure time course changes in COP during microgravity simulated by 6 deg. head-down tilt (HDT). Seven healthy male subjects (30-55 years of age) were placed in HDT for 16 days. For the purpose of another study, three of the seven subjects were chosen to exercise on a cycle ergometer on day 16. Blood samples were drawn immediately before bedrest on day 14 of bedrest, 18-24 hours following exercise while all subjects were still in HDT and 1 hour following bedrest termination. Plasma COP was measured in all 20 microliter EDTA-treated samples using an osmometer fitted with a PM 30 membrane. Data were analyzed with paired and unpaired t-tests. Plasma COP on day 14 of bedrest (29.9 +/- 0.69 mmHg) was significantly higher (p less than 0.005) than the control, pre-bedrest value (23.1 +/- 0.76 mmHg). At one hour of upright recovery after HDT, plasma COP remained significantly elevated (exercise: 26.9 +/- 0.87 mmHg; no exercise: 26.3 +/- 0.85 mmHg). Additionally, exercise had no significant effect on plasma COP 18-24 hours following exercise (exercise: 27.8 +/- 1.09 mmHg; no exercise: 27.1 +/- 0.78 mmHg). Our results demonstrate that plasma COP increases significantly with microgravity simulated by HDT. However, preliminary results indicate exercise during HDT does not significantly affect plasma COP.

  14. Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Civan, Aylin; Worrall, Fred; Jarvie, Helen P.; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.

    2018-03-01

    Given the importance of phosphorus (P) in the eutrophication of natural waters, this study considered the long-term time series of total phosphorus (TP) and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in British rivers from 1974 to 2012. The approach included not only trend analysis of fluxes and concentrations but also change point analysis. TP and TRP concentrations and fluxes in British rivers have declined since the mid-1980s. Over the last decade of the record the majority of individual sites did show significant downward trends in TP and TRP concentrations but, in 28% of cases for TRP concentration and 14% of cases for TP concentration, the decadal trend was a significant increase. Out of 230 sites, 136 showed a significant step decrease in TRP concentration; no sites showed a significant step increase. The modal year for the step changes for both TRP concentration and flux was 1997. Step changes are likely associated with improvements made at sewage treatment works to comply with the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC). The decrease in TRP concentration due to the step change were in the range of 0.68% and 89% with a geometric mean of 22%, with the rest of the decrease accounted by long-term, persistent downward trend.

  15. Development of Quantitative Framework for Event Significance Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Durk Hun; Kim, Min Chull; Kim, Inn Seock

    2010-01-01

    There is an increasing trend in quantitative evaluation of the safety significance of operational events using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) technique. An integrated framework for evaluation of event significance has been developed by Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS), which consists of an assessment hierarchy and a number of matrices. The safety significance of various events, e.g., internal or external initiating events that occurred during at-power or shutdown conditions, can be quantitatively analyzed using this framework, and then, the events rated according to their significance. This paper briefly describes the basic concept of the integrated quantitative framework for evaluation of event significance, focusing on the assessment hierarchy

  16. [Trends in participation in nonformal education in the second half of life : Increasing educational participation in retirement].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiest, Maja; Hoffmann, Madlain; Widany, Sarah; Kaufmann, Katrin

    2017-05-22

    Research on nonformal education often focuses on participation within employment. Participation of workers decreases with age; however, recent studies show an increase in participation in nonformal education of older workers. It remains, however, unclear if this trend spills over to retirement. In the context of social change processes, trends in nonformal educational participation are analyzed. The study addresses employment and retirement as opportunity structures and investigates their impact on educational participation in the second half of life. Predictors of educational participation are modeled in logistic regression, including interaction effects. Analyses are based on cross-sectional data of the German Ageing Survey and covers 20,129 respondents aged 40-85 years (T 1 : 1996 n = 4838; T 2 : 2002 n = 3084; T 3 : 2008 n = 6205; T 4 : 2014 n = 6002). Educational level, age, gender, employment status, region, social integration, and subjective health predict participation in nonformal education for people aged 40 to 85 years. Employment as an opportunity structure has a constant impact on participation, whereas retirees' participation increases over the course of time. The increase of retirees' participation in nonformal education is discussed in the context of social change processes and connected to theoretical und empirical research gaps with regard to educational participation in the second half of life.

  17. Incidence and mortality trends of gastric and colorectal cancers in Croatia, 1988-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirac, Iva; Šekerija, Mario; Šimunović, Iva; Zgaga, Lina; Vrdoljak, Danko Velimir; Kovačević, Dujo; Kuliš, Tomislav; Znaor, Ariana

    2012-01-01

    Aim To estimate the incidence and mortality trends of gastric and colorectal cancers in Croatia between 1988 and 2008. Methods Incidence data for the period 1988-2008 were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. The number of deaths from gastric and colorectal cancers was obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe changes in trends by sex. Results Gastric cancer incidence rates declined steadily during the study period, with estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of -3.2% for men and -2.8% for women. Mortality rates in men decreased, with EAPC of -5.0% from 1988-1995 and -2.5% from 1995-2008. Mortality rates in women decreased, with EAPC of -3.2% throughout the study period. For colorectal cancer in men, joinpoint analysis revealed increasing trends of both incidence (EAPC 2.9%) and mortality (EAPC 2.1%).In women, the increase in incidence was not significant, but mortality in the last 15 years showed a significant increase of 1.1%. Conclusion The incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer in Croatia are similar to other European countries, while the still increasing colorectal cancer mortality calls for more efficient prevention and treatment. PMID:22522990

  18. Non-response bias in physical activity trend estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bauman Adrian

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Increases in reported leisure time physical activity (PA and obesity have been observed in several countries. One hypothesis for these apparently contradictory trends is differential bias in estimates over time. The purpose of this short report is to examine the potential impact of changes in response rates over time on the prevalence of adequate PA in Canadian adults. Methods Participants were recruited in representative national telephone surveys of PA from 1995-2007. Differences in PA prevalence estimates between participants and those hard to reach were assessed using Student's t tests adjusted for multiple comparisons. Results The number of telephone calls required to reach and speak with someone in the household increased over time, as did the percentage of selected participants who initially refused during the first interview attempt. A higher prevalence of adequate PA was observed with 5-9 attempts to reach anyone in the household in 1999-2002, but this was not significant after adjustment for multiple comparisons. Conclusion No significant impact on PA trend estimates was observed due to differential non response rates. It is important for health policy makers to understand potential biases and how these may affect secular trends in all aspects of the energy balance equation.

  19. Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

  20. A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ficklin, Darren L; Maxwell, Justin T; Gholizadeh, Hamed; Letsinger, Sally L

    2015-01-01

    We present high spatial-resolution trends of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and selected climate variables from 1979–2013 for the contiguous United States in order to gain an understanding of recent drought trends and their climatic forcings. Based on a spatial grouping analysis, four regions of increasing (upper Midwest, Louisiana, southeastern United States (US), and western US) and decreasing (New England, Pacific Northwest, upper Great Plains, and Ohio River Valley) drought trends based on Mann–Kendall Z values were found. Within these regions, partial correlation and multiple regression for trends in climate variables and PDSI were performed to examine potential climatic controls on these droughts. As expected, there was a US-wide concurrence on drought forcing by precipitation. However, there was correspondence of recent PET trends with recent drought trends in many regions. For regions with an increase in recent droughts, average air temperature was generally the second most important variable after precipitation in determining recent drought trends. Across the regions where recent drought trends are decreasing, there was no clear ranking of climate-variable importance, where trends in average temperature, specific humidity and net radiation all played significant regional roles in determining recent drought trends. Deconstructing the trends in drought show that, while there are regions in the US showing positive and negative trends in drought conditions, the climate forcings for these drought trends are regionally specific. The results of this study allow for the interpretation of the role of the changing hydroclimatic cycle in recent drought trends, which also have implications for the current and impending results of climate change. (letter)

  1. Change in diarrhoea trends and the increasing importance of microbiological water quality due to HIV/AIDS in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Steyn, M

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available . Diarrhoea incidence for children under the age of five is noted at each health facility and is available on a national database. Almost no attention has been given to adult diarrhoea. Trend lines however suggest an increase in the number of deaths in adults...

  2. A Decade of Never-smokers Among Lung Cancer Patients-Increasing Trend and Improved Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toh, Chee-Keong; Ong, Whee-Sze; Lim, Wan-Teck; Tan, Daniel Shao-Weng; Ng, Quan-Sing; Kanesvaran, Ravindran; Seow, Wei-Jie; Ang, Mei-Kim; Tan, Eng-Huat

    2018-03-17

    It is not known whether clinicopathologic characteristics, treatment, and survival of never-smokers among lung cancer incident cases have changed over time. We assessed the trend and overall survival (OS) of these patients within our institution during a 10-year period. We reviewed 2 cohorts of non-small-cell lung cancer patients with a diagnosis from 1999 to 2002 and from 2008 to 2011. The patient characteristics and OS were compared by smoking status within each cohort and between the 2 cohorts over time. Of the 992 patients in the 1999-2002 cohort and the 1318 patients in the 2008-2011 cohort, 902 and 1272 had a known smoking status, respectively. The proportion of never-smokers increased from 31% in 1999-2002 to 48% in 2008-2011 (P never-, former-, and current-smokers have remained largely constant over time. A greater proportion of never-smokers had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 0 to 1 and adenocarcinoma. The median OS increased from 15.5 months in 1999-2002 to 24.9 months in 2008-2011 (P = .001) for never-smokers, 12.3 to 15.9 months (P = .150) for former-smokers, and 10.5 to 13.9 months (P = .011) for current-smokers. The larger survival improvement among never-smokers was likely accounted for by the larger increase in never-smokers who were treated with tyrosine kinase inhibitors and pemetrexed over time. We found an increasing trend of never-smokers among incident lung cancer cases and improved survival for these patients during a 10-year period. The documentation of smoking status in any national cancer registry is vital to estimate the true incidence of lung cancer among never-smokers over time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Analysis of increasing trend of mortgage volume in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Střelcová

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is an empirical analysis of mortgage volume in the Czech Republic and factors identification of the increasing trend of the mortgage volume in the period from 2001 to 2007. Firstly, analysis of quarterly time series of mortgage volume and average mortgage rate are performed. Consequently, causality between mortgage volume and average mortgage rate is analysed. The morgage rate is the most important factor for economic subjects decision of residential investment. Afterwards, it is analysed causality between mortgage volume and selected factors via multiple regression analysis. Based on this analysis, influencing factors for multiple regression analysis describing mortgage volume are selected. Our empirical analysis validate the causality between mortgage volume and mortgage rate, unemployment rate and price level of real estates. Part of this paper is also economic eduction of causality and estimation of expect progress of mortgage volume especially in connection with present economic and business recession.

  4. An assessment of historical Antarctic precipitation and temperature trend using CMIP5 models and reanalysis datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Malcolm S. Y.; Chenoli, Sheeba Nettukandy; Samah, Azizan Abu; Hai, Ooi See

    2018-03-01

    The study of Antarctic precipitation has attracted a lot of attention recently. The reliability of climate models in simulating Antarctic precipitation, however, is still debatable. This work assess the precipitation and surface air temperature (SAT) of Antarctica (90 oS to 60 oS) using 49 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts "Interim" reanalysis (ERA-Interim); the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR); the Japan Meteorological Agency 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55); and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) datasets for 1979-2005 (27 years). For precipitation, the time series show that the MERRA and JRA-55 have significantly increased from 1979 to 2005, while the ERA-Int and CFSR have insignificant changes. The reanalyses also have low correlation with one another (generally less than +0.69). 37 CMIP5 models show increasing trend, 18 of which are significant. The resulting CMIP5 MMM also has a significant increasing trend of 0.29 ± 0.06 mm year-1. For SAT, the reanalyses show insignificant changes and have high correlation with one another, while the CMIP5 MMM shows a significant increasing trend. Nonetheless, the variability of precipitation and SAT of MMM could affect the significance of its trend. One of the many reasons for the large differences of precipitation is the CMIP5 models' resolution.

  5. Evaluation of surface air temperature trend and climate change in the north - east of I. R. of Iran

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alireza, Shahabfar

    2004-01-01

    In this paper maximum, minimum and mean surface air temperature recorded, analysed to reveal spatial and temporal patterns of long-term trends, change points, significant warming (cooling) periods and linear trend per decade. According to this research summer minimum temperatures have generally increased at a larger rate than in spring and autumn minimum temperatures. On the other hand, nighttime warming rates of spring and summer are generally stronger than those that exist in spring and summer daytime temperatures. Considering the significant increasing trends in annual, spring and summer temperatures, it is seen that night-time warming rates are stronger in the northern regions, which are characterized by the Khorasan Province macro climate type: a very hot summer, a relatively hot and late spring and early autumn, and a moderate winter. We have seriously considered the strong warming trends in spring and summer and thus likely in annual minimum air temperatures. It is very likely that significant and very rapid night-time warming trends over much of the province can be related to the widespread, rapid and increased urbanization in Khorasan Province, in addition to long-term and global effects of the human-induced climate change on air temperatures. (Author)

  6. National Trends of Antiparkinsonism Treatment in Taiwan: 2004–2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weng-Ming Liu

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Several guidelines for Parkinson’s disease (PD management were recently updated. We examined temporal trends for antiparkinsonism drugs in Taiwan. Methods. Antiparkinsonism prescriptions, including levodopa, ergot/nonergot dopamine agonists (DAs, amantadine, selegiline, entacapone, and anticholinergics, were identified in the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database from 2004 to 2011. Time trend analyses were estimated assuming Poisson distribution. Results. A total of 19,302 PD patients in 2004 and 41,606 PD patients in 2011 were analyzed. Antiparkinsonism prescriptions increased significantly from 187,137 in 2004 to 414,587 in 2011. Levodopa monotherapy or combination therapy was the mainstay. Levodopa monotherapy comprised 37.4% of prescriptions in 2004 and 44.2% in 2011, with an annual increase rate of 18.14%. There was a substantially increasing trend of DA prescriptions, which were higher in younger-aged patients (<60 years than in older-aged group (p=0.0006. Among combination therapy, DA combined with levodopa or other antiparkinsonism medications became the main combinations for younger-aged patients after 2009. After 2005, the proportion of ergot DA usage markedly decreased and PD patients using nonergot DA increased. Conclusions. Levodopa was the major treatment from 2004 to 2011. There was a steeply increased trend of DA use, especially in younger-aged patients. Nonergot agents comprised the major DA group after 2005.

  7. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2009-10-15

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  8. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

    2009-01-01

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  9. Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, M. V. Ninu; Prasanna, M. V.; Vijith, H.

    2018-05-01

    Effect of climate change in a region can be characterised by the analysis of rainfall trends. In the present research, monthly rainfall trends at Limbang River Basin (LRB) in Sarawak, Malaysia for a period of 45 years (1970-2015) were characterised through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests and relative seasonality index. Statistically processed monthly rainfall of 12 well distributed rain gauging stations in LRB shows almost equal amount of rainfall in all months. Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests revealed a specific pattern of rainfall trend with a definite boundary marked in the months of January and August with positive trends in all stations. Among the stations, Limbang DID, Long Napir and Ukong showed positive (increasing) trends in all months with a maximum increase of 4.06 mm/year (p = 0.01) in November. All other stations showed varying trends (both increasing and decreasing). Significant (p = 0.05) decreasing trend was noticed in Ulu Medalam and Setuan during September (- 1.67 and - 1.79 mm/year) and October (- 1.59 and - 1.68 mm/year) in Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests. Spatial pattern of monthly rainfall trends showed two clusters of increasing rainfalls (maximas) in upper and lower part of the river basin separated with a dominant decreasing rainfall corridor. The results indicate a generally increasing trend of rainfall in Sarawak, Borneo.

  10. Three decades (1983-2010) of contaminant trends in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Part 2: brominated flame retardants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank F; Sonne, Christian; Born, Erik W; Bechshøft, Thea; McKinney, Melissa A; Drimmie, Robert J; Muir, Derek C G; Letcher, Robert J

    2013-09-01

    Brominated flame retardants were determined in adipose tissues from 294 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled in East Greenland in 23 of the 28years between 1983 and 2010. Significant linear increases were found for sum polybrominated diphenyl ether (ΣPBDE), BDE100, BDE153, and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). Average increases of 5.0% per year (range: 2.9-7.6%/year) were found for the subadult polar bears. BDE47 and BDE99 concentrations did not show a significant linear trend over time, but rather a significant non-linear trend peaking between 2000 and 2004. The average ΣPBDE concentrations increased 2.3 fold from 25.0ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 15.3-34.7ng/g lw) in 1983-1986 to 58.5ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 43.6-73.4ng/g lw) in 2006-2010. Similar but fewer statistically significant trends were found for adult females and adult males likely due to smaller sample size and years. Analyses of δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes in hair revealed no clear linear temporal trends in trophic level or carbon source, respectively, and non-linear trends differed among sex and age groups. These increasing concentrations of organobromine contaminants contribute to complex organohalogen mixture, already causing health effects to the East Greenland polar bears. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Trends in cancer mortality in Spain: the influence of the financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrando, Josep; Palència, Laia; Gotsens, Mercè; Puig-Barrachina, Vanessa; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Bartoll, Xavier; Borrell, Carme

    2018-02-13

    To determine if the onset of the economic crisis in Spain affected cancer mortality and mortality trends. We conducted a longitudinal ecological study based on all cancer-related deaths and on specific types of cancer (lung, colon, breast and prostate) in Spain between 2000 and 2013. We computed age-standardised mortality rates in men and women, and fit mixed Poisson models to analyse the effect of the crisis on cancer mortality and trends therein. After the onset of the economic crisis, cancer mortality continued to decline, but with a significant slowing of the yearly rate of decline (men: RR = 0.987, 95%CI = 0.985-0.990, before the crisis, and RR = 0.993, 95%CI = 0.991-0.996, afterwards; women: RR = 0.990, 95%CI = 0.988-0.993, before, and RR = 1.002, 95%CI = 0.998-1.006, afterwards). In men, lung cancer mortality was reduced, continuing the trend observed in the pre-crisis period; the trend in colon cancer mortality did not change significantly and continued to increase; and the yearly decline in prostate cancer mortality slowed significantly. In women, lung cancer mortality continued to increase each year, as before the crisis; colon cancer continued to decease; and the previous yearly downward trend in breast cancer mortality slowed down following the onset of the crisis. Since the onset of the economic crisis in Spain the rate of decline in cancer mortality has slowed significantly, and this situation could be exacerbated by the current austerity measures in healthcare. Copyright © 2018 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  12. Analysis of trend in temperature and rainfall time series of an Indian arid region: comparative evaluation of salient techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machiwal, Deepesh; Gupta, Ankit; Jha, Madan Kumar; Kamble, Trupti

    2018-04-01

    This study investigated trends in 35 years (1979-2013) temperature (maximum, Tmax and minimum, Tmin) and rainfall at annual and seasonal (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) scales for 31 grid points in a coastal arid region of India. Box-whisker plots of annual temperature and rainfall time series depict systematic spatial gradients. Trends were examined by applying eight tests, such as Kendall rank correlation (KRC), Spearman rank order correlation (SROC), Mann-Kendall (MK), four modified MK tests, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). Trend magnitudes were quantified by Sen's slope estimator, and a new method was adopted to assess the significance of linear trends in MK-test statistics. It was found that the significant serial correlation is prominent in the annual and post-monsoon Tmax and Tmin, and pre-monsoon Tmin. The KRC and MK tests yielded similar results in close resemblance with the SROC test. The performance of two modified MK tests considering variance-correction approaches was found superior to the KRC, MK, modified MK with pre-whitening, and ITA tests. The performance of original MK test is poor due to the presence of serial correlation, whereas the ITA method is over-sensitive in identifying trends. Significantly increasing trends are more prominent in Tmin than Tmax. Further, both the annual and monsoon rainfall time series have a significantly increasing trend of 9 mm year-1. The sequential significance of linear trend in MK test-statistics is very strong (R 2 ≥ 0.90) in the annual and pre-monsoon Tmin (90% grid points), and strong (R 2 ≥ 0.75) in monsoon Tmax (68% grid points), monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter Tmin (respectively 65, 55, and 48% grid points), as well as in the annual and monsoon rainfalls (respectively 68 and 61% grid points). Finally, this study recommends use of variance-corrected MK test for the precise identification of trends. It is emphasized that the rising Tmax may hamper crop growth due to enhanced

  13. Trends in asthma mortality in young people in southern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatkin, J M; Barreto, S M; Fonseca, N A; Gutiérrez, C A; Sears, M R

    1999-03-01

    Mortality from asthma increased and is now declining in some countries, but little is known about these trends in South America. We aimed to assess trends in mortality from asthma in southern Brazil in children and young adults. Death certificates of 425 people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul aged between 5 and 39 years in whom asthma was reported to be the underlying cause of death during the period 1970 to 1992 were reviewed. Population data were available in 10-year age groups. Testing for trends in mortality rates was conducted using linear and log-linear regression procedures. Asthma mortality rates in the age groups 5 to 19 and 20 to 39 years ranged between 0.04 and 0.39/100,000 and 0.28 to 0.75/100,000, respectively, and were nonuniformly distributed over the study period. The mean annual increase in rate in 5- to 19-year olds was +0.01 (95% CI 0.003 to 0.016), an average annual percentage increase of +6.8% (95% CI 3% to 11%), with a total increase of 352% between 1970 and 1992. This increase was not due to a shift in labeling from bronchitis to asthma. In the 20 to 39-year age group, asthma and bronchitis mortality rates showed no trend to increase or decrease. Asthma mortality in southern Brazil is low, but rose significantly between 1970 and 1992 in the 5 to 19-year age group. This trend differs from that found in other states of Brazil and several other Latin American countries. Reasons for this difference remain unclear.

  14. Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: Comparison of trends in two regions of New York, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Douglas A.; McHale, M.R.; Driscoll, C.T.; Roy, K.M.

    2006-01-01

    In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984-2001 and 1992-2001) and surface water chemistry (1992-2001) were determined in two of the most acid-sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and base cation (CB) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984-2001, but few significant trends during 1992-2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO42- concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO3-, CB, and H+ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO42- trends, but it caused several significant non-flow-corrected trends in NO3- and ANC to become non-significant, suggesting that trend results for flow-sensitive constituents are affected by flow-related climate variation. SO42- concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO42- concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO3- and H+ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local-scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid-base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

    2016-06-01

    Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), pMumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  16. Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva C

    2012-03-19

    Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982-2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998-2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998-2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.

  17. Trends in hospitalisation for acute myocardial infarction in Ireland, 1997-2008.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Jennings, Siobhan M

    2012-07-16

    OBJECTIVE: To study the temporal and gender trends in age-standardised hospitalisation rates, in-hospital mortality rates and indicators of health service use for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and the sub-categories, ST elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI), in Ireland, 1997-2008. DESIGN, SETTING, PATIENTS: Anonymised data from the hospital inpatient enquiry were studied for the ICD codes covering STEMI and NSTEMI in all 39 acute hospitals in Ireland over a 12-year period. Age standardisation (direct method) was used to study hospitalisation and in-hospital mortality rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was undertaken to identify significant inflection points in hospitalisation trends. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age-standardised hospitalisation rates, in-hospital mortality and indicators of health service use (length of stay, bed days) for AMI, STEMI and NSTEMI patients. RESULTS: From 1997 to 2008, hospitalisation rates for AMI decreased by 27%, and by 68% for STEMI patients (test for trend p<0.001), and increased by 122% for NSTEMI, (test for trend p<0.001). The mean age of male STEMI patients decreased (p<0.01), while those for the remaining groupings of AMI and subcategories increased. The proportion of males increased significantly for STEMI and NSTEMI (p<0.001). In-hospital mortality decreased steadily (p=0.01 STEMI, p=0.02 NSTEMI), as did median length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: The authors found a steady decrease in hospitalisation rates with AMI, and a shift away from STEMI towards rising rates of NSTEMI patients who are increasingly older. In an ageing population, and with increasing survival rates, surveillance of acute coronary syndrome and allied conditions is necessary to inform clinicians and policy makers.

  18. Trends in computer hardware and software.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frankenfeld, F M

    1993-04-01

    Previously identified and current trends in the development of computer systems and in the use of computers for health care applications are reviewed. Trends identified in a 1982 article were increasing miniaturization and archival ability, increasing software costs, increasing software independence, user empowerment through new software technologies, shorter computer-system life cycles, and more rapid development and support of pharmaceutical services. Most of these trends continue today. Current trends in hardware and software include the increasing use of reduced instruction-set computing, migration to the UNIX operating system, the development of large software libraries, microprocessor-based smart terminals that allow remote validation of data, speech synthesis and recognition, application generators, fourth-generation languages, computer-aided software engineering, object-oriented technologies, and artificial intelligence. Current trends specific to pharmacy and hospitals are the withdrawal of vendors of hospital information systems from the pharmacy market, improved linkage of information systems within hospitals, and increased regulation by government. The computer industry and its products continue to undergo dynamic change. Software development continues to lag behind hardware, and its high cost is offsetting the savings provided by hardware.

  19. Colorectal cancer mortality trends in Serbia during 1991-2010: an age-period-cohort analysis and a joinpoint regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

    2016-06-22

    For both men and women worldwide, colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer-related death. This study aimed to assess the mortality trends of colorectal cancer in Serbia between 1991 and 2010, prior to the introduction of population-based screening. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate average annual percent change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI). Furthermore, age-period-cohort analysis was performed to examine the effects of birth cohort and calendar period on the observed temporal trends. We observed a significantly increased trend in colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia during the study period (AAPC = 1.6%, 95% CI 1.3%-1.8%). Colorectal cancer showed an increased mortality trend in both men (AAPC = 2.0%, 95% CI 1.7%-2.2%) and women (AAPC = 1.0%, 95% CI 0.6%-1.4%). The temporal trend of colorectal cancer mortality was significantly affected by birth cohort (P < 0.05), whereas the study period did not significantly affect the trend (P = 0.072). Colorectal cancer mortality increased for the first several birth cohorts in Serbia (from 1916 to 1955), followed by downward flexion for people born after the 1960s. According to comparability test, overall mortality trends for colon cancer and rectal and anal cancer were not parallel (the final selected model rejected parallelism, P < 0.05). We found that colorectal cancer mortality in Serbia increased considerably over the past two decades. Mortality increased particularly in men, but the trends were different according to age group and subsite. In Serbia, interventions to reduce colorectal cancer burden, especially the implementation of a national screening program, as well as treatment improvements and measures to encourage the adoption of a healthy lifestyle, are needed.

  20. 11-Year Trends in Pregnancy-Related Health Indicators in Maine, 2000–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Harris

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to understand health and demographic trends among mothers and infants in Maine relative to the goals of Healthy People 2020. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system (PRAMS data from Maine for 2000–2010 were used to determine yearly values of pregnancy-related variables. Means (for continuous variables and percentages (for categorical variables were calculated using the survey procedures in SAS. Linear trend analysis was applied with study year as the independent variable. The slope and significance of the trend were then calculated. Over the study period, new mothers in Maine became better educated but the fraction of households with incomes <$20,000/year remained stagnant. Maternal prepregnancy BMI increased. Average pregnancy weight gain decreased but the number of women whose pregnancy weight gain was within the recommended range was unchanged. The rates of smoking and alcohol consumption (before and during pregnancy increased. The Caesarean section rate rose and the fraction of infants born premature (<37 wks gestation or underweight (<2500 gms remained unchanged. The fraction of infants who were breast-fed increased. These results suggest that, despite some positive trends, Maine faces significant challenges in meeting Healthy People 2020 goals.

  1. Trends in development of new generation of NPPs with increased safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumyantsev, V.V.

    1992-01-01

    The main requirements for designing, construction and operation of NPPs with advanced water cooled ALWR and SBWR reactors being under development in the USA are discussed. The trends in modernization of control systems at NPPs of new generation based on wide introduction of digital computers and visualization of technological parameter measurements are considered

  2. Significantly increased risk of carotid atherosclerosis with arsenic exposure and polymorphisms in arsenic metabolism genes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsieh, Yi-Chen; Lien, Li-Ming; Chung, Wen-Ting; Hsieh, Fang-I; Hsieh, Pei-Fan; Wu, Meei-Maan; Tseng, Hung-Pin; Chiou, Hung-Yi; Chen, Chien-Jen

    2011-01-01

    Individual susceptibility to arsenic-induced carotid atherosclerosis might be associated with genetic variations in arsenic metabolism. The purpose of this study is to explore the interaction effect on risk of carotid atherosclerosis between arsenic exposure and risk genotypes of purine nucleoside phosphorylase (PNP), arsenic (+3) methyltransferase (As3MT), and glutathione S-transferase omega 1 (GSTO1) and omega 2 (GSTO2). A community-based case-control study was conducted in northeastern Taiwan to investigate the arsenic metabolic-related genetic susceptibility to carotid atherosclerosis. In total, 863 subjects, who had been genotyped and for whom the severity of carotid atherosclerosis had been determined, were included in the present study. Individual well water was collected and arsenic concentration determined using hydride generation combined with flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The result showed that a significant dose-response trend (P=0.04) of carotid atherosclerosis risk associated with increasing arsenic concentration. Non-significant association between genetic polymorphisms of PNP Gly51Ser, Pro57Pro, As3MT Met287Thr, GSTO1 Ala140Asp, and GSTO2 A-183G and the risk for development of carotid atherosclerosis were observed. However, the significant interaction effect on carotid atherosclerosis risk was found for arsenic exposure (>50 μg/l) and the haplotypes of PNP (p=0.0115). A marked elevated risk of carotid atherosclerosis was observed in subjects with arsenic exposure of >50 μg/l in drinking water and those who carried the PNP A-T haplotype and at least either of the As3MT risk polymorphism or GSTO risk haplotypes (OR, 6.43; 95% CI, 1.79-23.19). In conclusion, arsenic metabolic genes, PNP, As3MT, and GSTO, may exacerbate the formation of atherosclerosis in individuals with high levels of arsenic concentration in well water (>50 μg/l). - Highlights: →Arsenic metabolic genes might be associated with carotid atherosclerosis. → A case

  3. Significantly increased risk of carotid atherosclerosis with arsenic exposure and polymorphisms in arsenic metabolism genes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hsieh, Yi-Chen [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, 250 Wusing St., Taipei 11031, Taiwan (China); Lien, Li-Ming [Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, College of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); School of Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Department of Neurology, Shin Kong WHS Memorial Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Chung, Wen-Ting [Department of Neurology, Wanfang Hospital, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Graduate Institute of Clinical Medicine, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Hsieh, Fang-I; Hsieh, Pei-Fan [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, 250 Wusing St., Taipei 11031, Taiwan (China); Wu, Meei-Maan [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, 250 Wusing St., Taipei 11031, Taiwan (China); Graduate Institute of Basic Medicine, College of Medicine, Fu-Jen Catholic University, Taipei, Taiwan (China); Tseng, Hung-Pin [Department of Neurology, Lotung Poh-Ai Hospital, I-Lan, Taiwan (China); Chiou, Hung-Yi, E-mail: hychiou@tmu.edu.tw [School of Public Health, College of Public Health and Nutrition, Taipei Medical University, 250 Wusing St., Taipei 11031, Taiwan (China); Chen, Chien-Jen [Genomics Research Center, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan (China)

    2011-08-15

    Individual susceptibility to arsenic-induced carotid atherosclerosis might be associated with genetic variations in arsenic metabolism. The purpose of this study is to explore the interaction effect on risk of carotid atherosclerosis between arsenic exposure and risk genotypes of purine nucleoside phosphorylase (PNP), arsenic (+3) methyltransferase (As3MT), and glutathione S-transferase omega 1 (GSTO1) and omega 2 (GSTO2). A community-based case-control study was conducted in northeastern Taiwan to investigate the arsenic metabolic-related genetic susceptibility to carotid atherosclerosis. In total, 863 subjects, who had been genotyped and for whom the severity of carotid atherosclerosis had been determined, were included in the present study. Individual well water was collected and arsenic concentration determined using hydride generation combined with flame atomic absorption spectrometry. The result showed that a significant dose-response trend (P=0.04) of carotid atherosclerosis risk associated with increasing arsenic concentration. Non-significant association between genetic polymorphisms of PNP Gly51Ser, Pro57Pro, As3MT Met287Thr, GSTO1 Ala140Asp, and GSTO2 A-183G and the risk for development of carotid atherosclerosis were observed. However, the significant interaction effect on carotid atherosclerosis risk was found for arsenic exposure (>50 {mu}g/l) and the haplotypes of PNP (p=0.0115). A marked elevated risk of carotid atherosclerosis was observed in subjects with arsenic exposure of >50 {mu}g/l in drinking water and those who carried the PNP A-T haplotype and at least either of the As3MT risk polymorphism or GSTO risk haplotypes (OR, 6.43; 95% CI, 1.79-23.19). In conclusion, arsenic metabolic genes, PNP, As3MT, and GSTO, may exacerbate the formation of atherosclerosis in individuals with high levels of arsenic concentration in well water (>50 {mu}g/l). - Highlights: {yields}Arsenic metabolic genes might be associated with carotid atherosclerosis. {yields

  4. Do singles or couples live healthier lifestyles? Trends in Queensland between 2005-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoeppe, Stephanie; Vandelanotte, Corneel; Rebar, Amanda L; Hayman, Melanie; Duncan, Mitch J; Alley, Stephanie J

    2018-01-01

    To compare the frequency of and trends in healthy lifestyle factors between singles and couples. Cross-sectional data from annual surveys conducted from 2005-2014 were used. The pooled sample included 15,001 Australian adults (mean age: 52.9 years, 50% male, 74% couples) who participated in the annual Queensland Social Survey via computer-assisted telephone interviews. Relationship status was dichotomised into single and couple. Binary logistic regression was used to assess associations between relationship status, and the frequency of and trends in healthy lifestyle factors. Compared to singles, couples were significantly more likely to be a non-smoker (OR = 1.82), and meet recommendations for limited fast food (OR = 1.12), alcohol consumption (OR = 1.27) and fruit and vegetable intake (OR = 1.24). Fruit and vegetable intake was not significantly associated with relationship status after adjusting for the other healthy lifestyle factors. Conversely, couples were significantly less likely to be within a normal weight range (OR = 0.81). In both singles and couples, the trend data revealed significant declines in the rates of normal weight (singles: OR = 0.97, couples: OR = 0.97) and viewing TV for less than 14 hours per week (singles: OR = 0.85, couples: OR = 0.84), whilst non-smoking rates significantly increased (singles: OR = 1.12, couples: OR = 1.03). The BMI trend was no longer significant when adjusting for health behaviours. Further, in couples, rates of meeting recommendations for physical activity and fruit/vegetable consumption significantly decreased (OR = 0.97 and OR = 0.95, respectively), as did rates of eating no fast food (OR = 0.96). These trends were not significant when adjusting for the other healthy lifestyle factors. In singles, rates of meeting alcohol recommendations significantly increased (OR = 1.08). Health behaviour interventions are needed in both singles and couples, but relationship status needs to be considered in interventions

  5. An increasing trend of rural infections of human influenza A (H7N9) from 2013 to 2017: A retrospective analysis of patient exposure histories in Zhejiang province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Enfu; Wang, Maggie H; He, Fan; Sun, Riyang; Cheng, Wei; Zee, Benny C Y; Lau, Steven Y F; Wang, Xiaoxiao; Chong, Ka Chun

    2018-01-01

    Although investigations have shown that closing live poultry markets (LPMs) is highly effective in controlling human influenza A (H7N9) infections, many of the urban LPMs were shut down, but rural LPMs remained open. This study aimed to compare the proportional changes between urban and rural infections in the Zhejiang province from 2013 to 2017 by analyzing the exposure histories of human cases. All laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 from 2013 (the first wave) to 2017 (the fifth wave) in the Zhejiang province of China were analyzed. Urban and rural infections were defined based on the locations of poultry exposure (direct and indirect) in urban areas (central towns) and rural areas (towns and villages on the outskirts of cities). A Chi-square trend test was used to compare the proportional trend between urban and rural infections over time and logistic regression was used to obtain the odds ratio by years. From 2013 to 2017, a statistically significant trend in rural infections was observed (p <0.01). The incremental odds ratio by years of rural infections was 1.59 with 95% confidence intervals of 1.34 to 1.86. Each year, significant increases in the proportion of live poultry transactions in LPMS and poultry processing plants were detected in conjunction with an increased proportion of urban and rural infections. The empirical evidence indicated a need for heightened infection control measures in rural areas, such as serving rural farms and backyards as active surveillance points for the H7N9 virus. Other potential interventions such as the vaccination of poultry and extending the closure of LPMs to the provincial level require further careful investigations.

  6. Long-term trends in total inorganic nitrogen and sulfur deposition in the US from 1990 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Zhang

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Excess deposition (including both wet and dry deposition of nitrogen and sulfur is detrimental to ecosystems. Recent studies have investigated the spatial patterns and temporal trends of nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition, but few studies have focused on dry deposition due to the scarcity of dry deposition measurements. Here, we use long-term model simulations from the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ model covering the period from 1990 to 2010 to study changes in spatial distribution as well as temporal trends in total (TDEP, wet (WDEP, and dry deposition (DDEP of total inorganic nitrogen (TIN and sulfur (TS in the United States (US. We first evaluate the model's performance in simulating WDEP over the US by comparing the model results with observational data from the US National Atmospheric Deposition Program. The coupled model generally underestimates the WDEP of both TIN (including both the oxidized nitrogen deposition, TNO3, and the reduced nitrogen deposition, NHx and TS, with better performance in the eastern US than the western US. The underestimation of the wet deposition by the model is mainly caused by the coarse model grid resolution, missing lightning NOx emissions, and the poor temporal and spatial representation of NH3 emissions. TDEP of both TIN and TS shows significant decreases over the US, especially in the east, due to the large emission reductions that occurred in that region. The decreasing trends of TIN TDEP are caused by decreases in TNO3, and the increasing trends of TIN deposition over the Great Plains and Tropical Wet Forests (Southern Florida Coastal Plain regions are caused by increases in NH3 emissions, although it should be noted that these increasing trends are not significant. TIN WDEP shows decreasing trends throughout the US, except for the Marine West Coast Forest region. TIN DDEP shows significant decreasing trends in the Eastern Temperate Forests

  7. Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

    2017-04-01

    The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

  8. Study of storm surge trends in typhoon-prone coastal areas based on observations and surge-wave coupled simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xingru; Li, Mingjie; Yin, Baoshu; Yang, Dezhou; Yang, Hongwei

    2018-06-01

    This is a study of the storm surge trends in some of the typhoon-prone coastal areas of China. An unstructured-grid, storm surge-wave-tide coupled model was established for the coastal areas of Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong provinces. The coupled model has a high resolution in coastal areas, and the simulated results compared well with the in situ observations and satellite altimeter data. The typhoon-induced storm surges along the coast of the study areas were simulated based on the established coupled model for the past 20 years (1997-2016). The simulated results were used to analyze the trends of the storm surges in the study area. The extreme storm surge trends along the central coast of Fujian Province reached up to 0.06 m/y, significant at the 90% confidence level. The duration of the storm surges greater than 1.0 and 0.7 m had an increasing trend along the coastal area of northern Fujian Province, significant at confidence levels of 70%-91%. The simulated trends of the extreme storm surges were also validated by observations from two tide gauge stations. Further studies show that the correlation coefficient (RTE) between the duration of the storm surge greater than 1 m and the annual ENSO index can reach as high as 0.62, significant at the 99% confidence level. This occurred in a location where the storm surge trend was not significant. For the areas with significant increasing storm surge trends, RTE was small and not significant. This study identified the storm surge trends for the full complex coastline of the study area. These results are useful both for coastal management by the government and for coastal engineering design.

  9. Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

    2014-09-01

    Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Trends in U.S. adult chronic disability rates over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzoni, Lisa I; Kurtz, Stephen G; Rao, Sowmya R

    2014-10-01

    Trends in the patterns and prevalence of chronic disability among U.S. residents carry important implications for public health and public policies across multiple societal sectors. To examine trends in U.S. adult population rates of chronic disability from 1998 to 2011 using 7 different disability measures and examining the implications of trends in population age, race and ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI). We used National Health Interview Survey data on civilian, non-institutionalized U.S. residents ages ≥ 18 from selected years between 1998 and 2011. We used self-reported information on functional impairments, activity/participation limitations, and expected duration to create 7 chronic disability measures. We used direct standardization to account for changes in age, race/ethnicity, and BMI distributions over time. Multivariable logistic regression models identified associations of disability with sociodemographic characteristics. Without adjustment, population rates of all 7 disabilities increased significantly (p disability types continued to show increased rates over time (p disability. If these trends continue, the numbers and proportions of U.S. residents with various disabilities will continue rising in coming years. In particular, the prevalence of movement difficulties and work limitations will increase. Furthermore, disability will remain strongly associated with low levels of education, employment, and income. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

  12. Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Chang-Eui; Jeong, Su-Jong; Ho, Chang-Hoi; Park, Hoonyoung; Piao, Shilong; Kim, Jinwon; Feng, Song

    2017-09-01

    Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961-2010. Before the early 1980s (1961-1983), change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984-2010), the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

  13. Secular trends in Klebsiella pneumoniae isolated in a tertiary-care hospital: increasing prevalence and accelerated decline in antimicrobial susceptibility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo de Carvalho Santana

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: INTRODUCTION Klebsiella pneumoniae has become an increasingly important etiologic agent of nosocomial infections in recent years. This is mainly due to the expression of virulence factors and development of resistance to several antimicrobial drugs. METHODS This retrospective study examines data obtained from the microbiology laboratory of a Brazilian tertiary-care hospital. To assess temporal trends in prevalence and antimicrobial susceptibility, K. pneumoniae isolates were analyzed from 2000 to 2013. The relative frequencies of K. pneumoniae isolation were calculated among all Gram-negative bacilli isolated in each period analyzed. Susceptibility tests were performed using automated systems. RESULTS: From 2000-2006, K. pneumonia isolates comprised 10.7% of isolated Gram-negative bacilli (455/4260. From 2007-2013, this percentage was 18.1% (965/5331. Strictly considering isolates from bloodstream infections, the relative annual prevalence of K. pneumoniae increased from 14-17% to 27-32% during the same periods. A progressive decrease in K. pneumoniae susceptibility to all antimicrobial agents assessed was detected. Partial resistance was also observed to antimicrobial drugs that have been used more recently, such as colistin and tigecycline. CONCLUSIONS Our study indicates that K. pneumoniae has become a major pathogen among hospitalized patients and confirms its recent trend of increasing antimicrobial resistance.

  14. THE SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT AND NONTRANSITORY INCREASE IN PRICES (SSNIP TEST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liviana Niminet

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The Small but Significant Nontransitory Increase in Price Test was designed to define the relevant market by concepts of product, geographical area and time. This test, also called the ,,hypothetical monopolistic test” is the subject of many researches both economical and legal as it deals with economic concepts as well as with legally aspects.

  15. Level and Temporal Trend of Perfluoroalkyl Acids in Greenlandic Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

    bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

  16. Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Long, Manhai; Bossi, Rossana; Bonefeld-Jørgensen, Eva Cecilie

    2012-01-01

    bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different...... Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 19982005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs) were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were...... higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 19982005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs...

  17. Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

    2018-04-01

    Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

  18. Time-Trend in Epidemiological and Pathological Features of Schistosoma-Associated Bladder Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    ZAGHLOUL, M.S.; EL-BARADIE, M.; NAZMY, M.; NOUH, A.; MONEER, M.; YOUNIS, A.

    2008-01-01

    To investigate the different emerging trends in the features of bladder cancer along 17 years. Patients and Methods: During a 17-year period (1988- 2004), 5071 epithelial bladder cancer patients underwent radical cystectomy at the National Cancer Institute (NCI), Cairo University, Egypt. The time was divided into 3 time periods to detect changes of the clinico pathologic features of patients in these periods. Results: There was a significant progressive increase in the patients' age with time and decrease in squamous/ transitional ratio, with transient increase in male predominance during the 2nd time period. Moreover, there was a decrease in the well differentiated (grade 1) tumor (p<0.001) and an increase in the frequency of pelvic nodal involvement (p<0.001). Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) patients were significantly older than those with squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) (p<0.001). Progressive increase of age with time was evident in TCC, SCC and adenocarcinoma patients. Male to female ratio changed significantly in TCC and SCC. Conclusion: Time trend was confirmed with relative decrease in frequency of SCC and increase of TCC with changes in their pathological details. The differences between their characteristics and that of the Western countries are decreasing.

  19. Increased frequency of retinopathy of prematurity over the last decade and significant regional differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmström, Gerd; Tornqvist, Kristina; Al-Hawasi, Abbas; Nilsson, Åsa; Wallin, Agneta; Hellström, Ann

    2018-03-01

    Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) causes childhood blindness globally in prematurely born infants. Although increased levels of oxygen supply lead to increased survival and reduced frequency of cerebral palsy, increased incidence of ROP is reported. With the help of a Swedish register for ROP, SWEDROP, national and regional incidences of ROP and frequencies of treatment were evaluated from 2008 to 2015 (n = 5734), as well as before and after targets of provided oxygen changed from 85-89% to 91-95% in 2014. Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) was found in 31.9% (1829/5734) of all infants with a gestational age (GA) of <31 weeks at birth and 5.7% of the infants (329/5734) had been treated for ROP. Analyses of the national data revealed an increased incidence of ROP during the 8-year study period (p = 0.003), but there was no significant increase in the frequency of treatment. There were significant differences between the seven health regions of Sweden, regarding both incidence of ROP and frequency of treatment (p < 0.001). Comparison of regional data before and after the new oxygen targets revealed a significant increase in treated ROP in one region [OR: 2.24 (CI: 1.11-4.49), p = 0.024] and a borderline increase in one other [OR: 3.08 (CI: 0.99-9.60), p = 0.052]. The Swedish national ROP register revealed an increased incidence of ROP during an 8-year period and significant regional differences regarding the incidence of ROP and frequency of treatment. © 2017 Acta Ophthalmologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

    2017-12-01

    This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

  1. Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water in the Northeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, M.J.

    2007-01-01

    Public water systems in Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Rhode Island sampled treated drinking water from 1993-2006 and analyzed the samples for MTBE. The US Geological Survey examined trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water derived from ground water in these States for two near-decadal time steps; 1993-1999 and 2000-2006. MTBE was detected in 14% of drinking water samples collected in all States from 1993-1999 and in 19% of drinking water samples collected from the same systems from 2000-2006 and this difference was statistically significant. Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in each State by individual year indicated significant positive trends in Maryland and New Hampshire. Significant, increasing trends in MTBE concentrations were observed in Maryland and Rhode Island by individual year. This is an abstract of a paper presented at the 2007 Petroleum Hydrocarbons and Organic Chemicals in Ground Water: Prevention, Assessment and Remediation Conference (Houston, TX 11/5-6/2007).

  2. Trends in incidence of leukemia in Poland after the Chernobyl disaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwiatkowski, B.

    1996-01-01

    After the Chernobyl accident the whole population of Poland was exposed to low-level radiation mainly emitted by I-131 and Cs-137. In 6-year period the incidence of leukemia increased in 2 groups of children: age 0-4 in males and 5-7 in females. In adults in some clinical types of leukemia significant trends of incidence were observed: in acute myleoid leukemia in age groups of 70-79 for males, in chronic myleoid leukemia in age groups of 40-49 and 60-69 for females, in chronic lymphatic leukemia in age group of 70-79 for males. Non of those trends was significant prior to the Chernobyl disaster

  3. Level and temporal trend of perfluoroalkyl acids in Greenlandic Inuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manhai Long

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs have been detected in human blood, breast milk and umbilical cord blood across the globe. PFAAs do accumulate in the marine food chain in Arctic regions. In Greenland, increasing PFAA concentrations were observed during 1982–2006 in ringed seals and polar bears. However, until now, no data have been reported for PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. This study assesses the level and temporal trend of serum PFAAs in Greenlandic Inuit. Study design: Cross-section and temporal time trend survey. Methods: Serum PFAA levels were determined in 284 Inuit from different Greenlandic districts using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry with electrospray ionization. The temporal time trend of serum PFAAs in Nuuk Inuit during 1998–2005 and the correlation between serum PFAAs and legacy persistent organic pollutants (POPs were explored. Results: Serum PFAA levels were higher in Nuuk Inuit than in non-Nuuk Inuit. Within the same district, higher PFAA levels were observed for males. An age-dependent, increasing trend of serum PFAA levels in the period from 1998–2005 was observed for Nuuk Inuit. For the pooled gender data, no significant association between PFAAs and legacy POPs was observed for Nuuk Inuit while for non-Nuuk Inuit this correlation was significant. No correlation between PFAAs and legacy POPs was found for male Inuit, whereas significant correlation was observed both for pooled female Inuit and for non-Nuuk Inuit females. Conclusions: We suggest that sources other than seafood intake might contribute to the observed higher PFAA levels in Nuuk Inuit compared to the pooled non-Nuuk Inuit.

  4. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt. Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, W. Y.; Lin, W. L.; Xu, X. B.; Tang, J.; Huang, J. Q.; Wu, H.; Zhang, X. C.

    2015-11-01

    Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The level of tropospheric ozone, particularly in the surface layer, is impacted by emissions of precursors and is subjected to meteorological conditions. Due its importance, the long-term variation trend of baseline ozone is highly needed for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies about the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China, a country with rapid economic growth for recent decades, and many other developing countries. To uncover the long-term characteristics and trends of baseline surface ozone, concentration in western China, measurements at a global baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt. Waliguan) for the period of 1994 to 2013 were analysed in this study, using a modified Mann-Kendall test and the Hilbert-Huang Transform analysis for the trend and periodicity analysis, respectively. Results reveal higher surface ozone during the night and lower during the day at Waliguan, due to mountain-valley breezes. A seasonal maximum in summer was found, which was probably caused by enhanced stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange events and/or by tropospheric photochemistry. Analysis suggests that there is a season-diurnal cycle in the three-dimensional winds on top of Mt. Waliguan. Season-dependent daytime and nighttime ranges of 6 h were determined based on the season-diurnal cycle in the three-dimensional winds and were used to sort subsets of ozone data for trend analysis. Significant increasing trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (1.5-2.7 ppbv 10 a-1) and nighttime (1.3-2.9 ppbv 10 a-1). Autumn and spring revealed the largest increase rates, while summer and winter showed relatively weaker increases. The HHT spectral analysis confirmed the increasing

  5. Trend analysis of the wave storminess: the wave direction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casas Prat, M.; Sierra, J. P.; Mösso, C.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A.

    2009-09-01

    Climate change has an important role in the current scientific research because of its possible future negative consequences. Concerning the climate change in the coastal engineering field, the apparent sea level rise is one of the key parameters as well as the wave height and the wave direction temporal variations. According to the IPCC (2007), during the last century the sea level has been increasing with a mean rate of 1.7 ± 0.5 mm/yr. However, at local/regional scale the tendency significantly differs from the global trend since the local pressure and wind field variations become more relevant. This appears to be particularly significant in semi-enclosed areas in the Mediterranean Sea (Cushman-Roisin et al., 2001). Even though the existing unsolved questions related to the sea level rise, the uncertainty concerning the wave height is even larger, in which stormy conditions are especially important because they are closely related to processes such as coastal erosion, flooding, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to identify possible existing tendencies of storm related parameters. In many studies, only the maximum wave height and storm duration are analysed, remaining the wave direction in a second term. Note that a possible rotation of the mean wave direction may involve severe consequences since most beach and harbour defence structures have been designed assuming a constant predominant wave incidence. Liste et al. (2004) illustrated this fact with an example in which a rotation of only 2 degrees of the mean energy flux vector could produce a beach retreat of 20 m. Another possible consequence would be a decrease of the harbour operability: increased frequency of storms in the same direction as the harbour entrance orientation would influence the navigability. The present study, which focuses in the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean Sea), aims to improve the present knowledge of the wave storminess variations at regional scale, specially focusing on the wave

  6. Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

    2017-06-02

    An evaluation of trends in hydrologic and water quality conditions and estimation of water budgets through 2013 was done by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Chester County Water Resources Authority. Long-term hydrologic, meteorologic, and biologic data collected in Chester County, Pennsylvania, which included streamflow, groundwater levels, surface-water quality, biotic integrity, precipitation, and air temperature were analyzed to determine possible trends or changes in hydrologic conditions. Statistically significant trends were determined by applying the Kendall rank correlation test; the magnitudes of the trends were determined using the Sen slope estimator. Water budgets for eight selected watersheds were updated and a new water budget was developed for the Marsh Creek watershed. An average water budget for Chester County was developed using the eight selected watersheds and the new Marsh Creek water budget.Annual and monthly mean streamflow, base flow, and runoff were analyzed for trends at 10 streamgages. The periods of record at the 10 streamgages ranged from 1961‒2013 to 1988‒2013. The only statistically significant trend for annual mean streamflow was for West Branch Brandywine Creek near Honey Brook, Pa. (01480300) where annual mean streamflow increased 1.6 cubic feet per second (ft3/s) per decade. The greatest increase in monthly mean streamflow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 47 ft3/s per decade. No statistically significant trends in annual mean base flow or runoff were determined for the 10 streamgages. The greatest increase in monthly mean base flow was for Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000) for December; the increase was 26 ft3/s per decade.The magnitude of peaks greater than a base streamflow was analyzed for trends for 12 streamgages. The period of record at the 12 stream gages ranged from 1912‒2012 to 2004–11. Fifty percent of the streamgages showed a

  7. Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian S.; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers. PMID:29364953

  8. Can data from disparate long-term fish monitoring programs be used to increase our understanding of regional and continental trends in large river assemblages?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Counihan, Timothy D.; Waite, Ian R.; Casper, Andrew F.; Ward, David L.; Sauer, Jennifer S.; Irwin, Elise R.; Chapman, Colin G.; Ickes, Brian; Paukert, Craig P.; Kosovich, John J.; Bayer, Jennifer M.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding trends in the diverse resources provided by large rivers will help balance tradeoffs among stakeholders and inform strategies to mitigate the effects of landscape scale stressors such as climate change and invasive species. Absent a cohesive coordinated effort to assess trends in important large river resources, a logical starting point is to assess our ability to draw inferences from existing efforts. In this paper, we use a common analytical framework to analyze data from five disparate fish monitoring programs to better understand the nature of spatial and temporal trends in large river fish assemblages. We evaluated data from programs that monitor fishes in the Colorado, Columbia, Illinois, Mississippi, and Tallapoosa rivers using non-metric dimensional scaling ordinations and associated tests to evaluate trends in fish assemblage structure and native fish biodiversity. Our results indicate that fish assemblages exhibited significant spatial and temporal trends in all five of the rivers. We also document native species diversity trends that were variable within and between rivers and generally more evident in rivers with higher species richness and programs of longer duration. We discuss shared and basin-specific landscape level stressors. Having a basic understanding of the nature and extent of trends in fish assemblages is a necessary first step towards understanding factors affecting biodiversity and fisheries in large rivers.

  9. Evaluation of Significance of Diffusely Increased Bilateral Renal Uptake on Bone Scan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sung, Mi Sook; Yang, Woo Jin; Byun, Jae Young; Park, Jung Mi; Shinn, Kyung Sub; Bahk, Yong Whee

    1990-01-01

    Unexpected renal abnormality can be detected on bone scan using 99m Tc-MDP. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the diagnostic significance of diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake on bone scan. 1,500 bone scan were reviewed and 43 scans which showed diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake were selected for analysis. Laboratory findings for renal and liver function tests including routine urinalysis were reviewed in 43 patients. 26 of 43 case showed abnormality in urinalysis and renal function study. 20 of 43 cases showed abnormal liver function study and 3 of these cases were diagnosed as hepatorenal syndrome later. 13 of those 20 cases had liver cirrhosis with or without hepatoma. 12 of 43 cases showed abnormality both in renal and liver function studies. 2 of 43 cases showed diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake after chemotherapy for cancer but not on previous scans before chemotherapy. 2 of 43 cases showed hypercalcaemia and 8 of 43 cases had multifocal bone uptake due to metastasis or benign bone lesion. But the latter showed no hypercalcaemia at all. There was no significant correlation between increased renal uptake and MDP uptake in soft tissue other than kidneys. This study raised the possibility that the impaired liver and/or renal function may result in diffuse increase of bilateral renal uptake of MDP of unknown mechanism. It seems to need further study on this correlation.

  10. Evaluation of Significance of Diffusely Increased Bilateral Renal Uptake on Bone Scan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sung, Mi Sook; Yang, Woo Jin; Byun, Jae Young; Park, Jung Mi; Shinn, Kyung Sub; Bahk, Yong Whee [Catholic University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    1990-03-15

    Unexpected renal abnormality can be detected on bone scan using {sup 99m}Tc-MDP. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the diagnostic significance of diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake on bone scan. 1,500 bone scan were reviewed and 43 scans which showed diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake were selected for analysis. Laboratory findings for renal and liver function tests including routine urinalysis were reviewed in 43 patients. 26 of 43 case showed abnormality in urinalysis and renal function study. 20 of 43 cases showed abnormal liver function study and 3 of these cases were diagnosed as hepatorenal syndrome later. 13 of those 20 cases had liver cirrhosis with or without hepatoma. 12 of 43 cases showed abnormality both in renal and liver function studies. 2 of 43 cases showed diffusely increased bilateral renal uptake after chemotherapy for cancer but not on previous scans before chemotherapy. 2 of 43 cases showed hypercalcaemia and 8 of 43 cases had multifocal bone uptake due to metastasis or benign bone lesion. But the latter showed no hypercalcaemia at all. There was no significant correlation between increased renal uptake and MDP uptake in soft tissue other than kidneys. This study raised the possibility that the impaired liver and/or renal function may result in diffuse increase of bilateral renal uptake of MDP of unknown mechanism. It seems to need further study on this correlation.

  11. St. John's wort significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of methotrexate in rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Shih-Ying; Juang, Shin-Hun; Tsai, Shang-Yuan; Chao, Pei-Dawn Lee; Hou, Yu-Chi

    2012-01-01

    St. John's wort (SJW, Hypericum perforatum) is one of the popular nutraceuticals for treating depression. Methotrexate (MTX) is an immunosuppressant with narrow therapeutic window. This study investigated the effect of SJW on MTX pharmacokinetics in rats. Rats were orally given MTX alone and coadministered with 300 and 150 mg/kg of SJW, and 25 mg/kg of diclofenac, respectively. Blood was withdrawn at specific time points and serum MTX concentrations were assayed by a specific monoclonal fluorescence polarization immunoassay method. The results showed that 300 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC 0−t and C max of MTX by 163% and 60%, respectively, and 150 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC 0−t of MTX by 55%. In addition, diclofenac enhanced the C max of MTX by 110%. The mortality of rats treated with SJW was higher than that of controls. In conclusion, coadministration of SJW significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of MTX. The combined use of MTX with SJW would need to be with caution. -- Highlights: ► St. John's wort significantly increased the AUC 0−t and C max of methotrexate. ► Coadministration of St. John's wort increased the exposure and toxicity of methotrexate. ► The combined use of methotrexate with St. John's wort will need to be with caution.

  12. Trends in US malpractice payments in dentistry compared to other health professions - dentistry payments increase, others fall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nalliah, R P

    2017-01-13

    Background Little is known about trends in the number of malpractice payments made against dentists and other health professionals. Knowledge of these trends will inform the work of our professional organisations.Methods The National Practitioner Data Bank (NPDB) in the United States was utilised. Data about malpractice payments against dentists, hygienists, nurses, optometrists, pharmacists, physicians (DO and MD), physicians' assistants, podiatrists, psychologists, therapists and counsellors during 2004-14 were studied. Variables include type of healthcare provider, year malpractice payment was made and range of payment amount.Results In 2004 there were 17,532 malpractice payments against the studied health professions. In 2014 there were 11,650. In 2004, the number of malpractice payments against dentists represented 10.3% of all payments and in 2014 it represented 13.4%. Number of malpractice payments against dentists in 2012-2014 increased from 1,388 to 1,555.Conclusions There is an upward pressure on the number of dental malpractice payments over the last 3 years. Concurrently, there is a downward pressure on the number of combined non-dentist healthcare professional malpractice payments.

  13. Australian trampoline injury patterns and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashby, Karen; Pointer, Sophie; Eager, David; Day, Lesley

    2015-10-01

    To examine national trampoline injury patterns and trends in the context of improved product safety standards and trampoline design modifications. Review of National Hospital Morbidity data. There were an average 1,737 trampoline injuries reported nationally each year from 2002 to 2011. Both injury frequency and rate grew. Statistically significant rate increases were observed among all age groups, although both are highest among children aged 5-9 years. From 2008/09 there is a possible decreasing trend among the 5-9 age group. Falls predominate and 81% of falls result in fracture. Non-fall injuries increased annually as a proportion of all hospitalised injury although they did not comprise more than 2.4% in any one year. History provides no evidence of an observable effect of voluntary Australian Standards for trampoline safety on population rates for trampoline injury. The major design modification--netted enclosures--could contribute to the risk of injury by leading parents to falsely believe that a netted enclosure eradicates the risk of injury. © 2015 Public Health Association of Australia.

  14. Twelve-year analysis of microbial keratitis trends at a UK tertiary hospital.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, S Z; Walkden, A; Au, L; Fullwood, C; Hamilton, A; Qamruddin, A; Armstrong, M; Brahma, A K; Carley, F

    2017-08-01

    PurposeTo investigate the frequencies, trends, and in vitro drug susceptibilities of the causative pathogens in microbial keratitis in Manchester Royal Eye Hospital.Patients and methodsCorneal scrape results recorded by the microbiology service between 2004 and 2015 were extracted from an established database. A total of 4229 corneal scrape specimens were identified from an established database. First-line antibiotic treatment in our centre during the study period was ofloxacin and second line was cefuroxime and gentamicin.ResultsMean age was 45.9±21.0. A total of 1379 samples (32.6%) were culture positive. One hundred forty-eight (10.7%) specimens cultured multiple organisms. Of the 1539 organisms identified, 63.3% were Gram-positive bacteria, 27.3% Gram-negative bacteria, 7.1% fungi, and 2.3% Acanthamoebae. A decreasing trend in Gram-positive isolates was found together with a stable trend in Gram negatives and an increasing trend in Acanthamoeba and fungi. There appeared to be a significant increasing trend of Moraxella infection (P=0.001). In all, 83.1 and 90.8% of Gram-positive and -negative isolates tested were susceptible to ofloxacin, respectively. Cefuroxime covered 86.6% of Gram-positive and 61.4% of Gram-negative isolates, whereas gentamicin covered 88.8 and 96.5% of Gram-positive and -negative isolates, respectively.ConclusionWe found a change in the type of Gram-negative organisms isolated over time, with the Moraxella species on the rise. Reassuringly, no significant increase in resistance was observed in vitro for any of the commonly used antibiotics. Ofloxacin remains a good first-line antibiotic treatment but duo-therapy does have broader coverage and should be considered in non-responsive cases.

  15. Urbanization effect on trends in sunshine duration in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available There is an ongoing debate on whether the observed decadal variations in surface solar radiation, known as dimming and brightening periods, are a large-scale or solely local phenomenon. We investigated this issue using long-term sunshine duration records from China, which experienced a rapid increase in urbanization during the past decades. Over the period 1960–2013, 172 pairs of urban and nearby rural stations were analyzed. Urban and rural sunshine duration trends show similar spatial patterns during a dimming phase (1960–1989 and a subsequent period during which trends were leveling off (1990–2013. This indicates that rather than local effects, the trends in sunshine duration are on more of a national or regional scale in China. Nevertheless, in the dimming phase, the declining rate of sunshine duration in rural areas is around two-thirds of that in urban areas. The ratio of rural to urban dimming generally increases from a minimum of 0.39 to a maximum of 0.87 with increasing indices of urbanization calculated based on the year 2013. It reaches a maximum when the urbanization level exceeds 50 %, the urban population exceeds 20 million, or the population density becomes higher than 250 person km−2. After the transition into the leveling-off period, sunshine duration trends are no longer significantly affected by urbanization. Meanwhile, the number of laws and regulations related to air pollution and investment in pollution treatment have been increasing in China.

  16. Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tara L Crewe

    Full Text Available The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling to reduce the probability that individuals will

  17. Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth; Loane, Maria; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bergman, Jorieke E. H.; Csaky-Szunyogh, Melinda; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth S.; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Khoshnood, Babak; Klungsoyr, Kari; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Robert; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J.; O'Mahony, Mary; Pierini, Anna; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Kurinczuk, Jennifer; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Dolk, Helen

    2018-01-01

    Background Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. Methods This study analysed the prevalence of 61 congenital anomaly subgroups (excluding chromosomal) in 25 population-based EUROCAT registries (1980–2012). Live births, fetal deaths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random-effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003–2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects, single ventricle, atrioventricular septal defects and tetralogy of Fallot of 1.4% (95% CI: 0.7% to 2.0%), 4.6% (1.0% to 8.2%), 3.4% (1.3% to 5.5%) and 4.1% (2.4% to 5.7%) respectively may reflect increases in maternal obesity and diabetes (known risk factors). The increased prevalence of cystic adenomatous malformation of the lung [6.5% (3.5% to 9.4%)] and decreased prevalence of limb reduction defects [-2.8% (-4.2% to -1.5%)] are unexplained. For renal dysplasia and maternal infections, increasing trends may be explained by increased screening, and deceases in patent ductus arteriosus at term and increases in craniosynostosis, by improved follow up period after birth and improved diagnosis. For oesophageal atresia, duodenal atresia/stenosis and ano-rectal atresia/stenosis recent changes in prevalence appeared incidental when compared with larger long term fluctuations. For microcephaly and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid supplementation. PMID:29621304

  18. Trends in workforce diversity in vascular surgery programs in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kane, Katherine; Rosero, Eric B; Clagett, G Patrick; Adams-Huet, Beverley; Timaran, Carlos H

    2009-06-01

    U.S. black and Hispanic populations are growing at a steady pace. In contrast, the medical profession lacks the same minority growth and representation. Women are also under-represented in many surgical disciplines. The purpose of this study was to assess trends in the proportion of women, blacks, and Hispanics admitted to vascular surgery (VS) and related specialties, and to compare them with each other and with a surgical specialty, orthopedic surgery (OS), with a formal diversity initiative. Data on the fellowship pool of VS, interventional radiology (IR), and interventional cardiology (IC), as well as the resident pools of general surgery (GS) and orthopedic surgery (OS), were obtained from U.S. graduate medical education reports for 1999 through 2005. Cochrane-Armitage trend tests were used to assess trends in the proportion of females, blacks, and Hispanics in relation to the total physician workforce for each subspecialty. No significant trends in the proportion of females, blacks, or Hispanics accepted into VS and IC fellowship programs occurred during the study period. In contrast, IR, GS, and OS programs revealed significant trends for increasing proportions of at least one of the underrepresented study groups. In particular, OS, which has implemented a diversity awareness program, showed a positive trend in female and Hispanic trainees (P workforce diversity.

  19. Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, B.

    2016-12-01

    This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

  20. Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

    2017-01-25

    Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

  1. Trend and recovery of the total ozone column in South America and Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toro A., Richard; Araya, Consuelo; Labra O., Felipe; Morales, Luis; Morales, Raúl G. E.; Leiva G., Manuel A.

    2017-12-01

    South America is one of the most vulnerable areas to stratospheric ozone depletion; consequently, an increased amount of UV radiation reaches the Earth's surface in this region. In this study, we analyzed the long-term trend in the total ozone column (TOC) over the southern part of the South American continent from 1980 to 2009. The database used was obtained by combining several satellite measurements of the TOC on a 1° (latitude) × 1.25° (longitude) grid. Analysis of the long-term trend was performed by applying the Theil-Sen estimator and the Mann-Kendall significance test to the deseasonalized time series. The long-term trend was also analyzed over several highly populated urban zones in the study area. Finally, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling was used to identify and quantify the drivers of interannual variability in the TOC over the study area with a pixel-by-pixel approach. The results showed a decrease in the TOC ranging from -0.3 to -4% dec-1 from 1980 to 2009. On a decadal timescale, there is significant variability in this trend, and a decrease of more than -10% dec-1 was found at high latitudes (1980-1989). However, the trends obtained over much of the study area were not statistically significant. Considering the period from 1980 to 1995, we found a decrease in the TOC of -2.0 ± 0.6% dec-1 at latitudes below 40° S and -6.9 ± 2.0% dec-1 at latitudes above 40° S, for a 99.9% confidence level over most of the study area. Analysis of the period from 1996 to 2009 showed a statistically significant increase of 2.3 ± 0.1% dec-1 at high latitudes (> 60° S), confirming the initial TOC recovery in the Antarctic. Despite evidence for initial recovery of the TOC in some parts of the study area between 1996 and 2009, the long-term increase from September to November is not yet statistically significant. In addition, large parts of the study area and most of the urban areas continue to show a decreasing trend in the TOC. The MLR results show that

  2. Dominance of climate warming effects on recent drying trends over wet monsoon regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-E. Park

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Understanding changes in background dryness over land is key information for adapting to climate change because of its critical socioeconomic consequences. However, causes of continental dryness changes remain uncertain because various climate parameters control dryness. Here, we verify dominant climate variables determining dryness trends over continental eastern Asia, which is characterized by diverse hydroclimate regimes ranging from arid to humid, by quantifying the relative effects of changes in precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, surface air temperature, and relative humidity on trends in the aridity index based on observed data from 189 weather stations for the period of 1961–2010. Before the early 1980s (1961–1983, change in precipitation is a primary condition for determining aridity trends. In the later period (1984–2010, the dominant climate parameter for aridity trends varies according to the hydroclimate regime. Drying trends in arid regions are mostly explained by reduced precipitation. In contrast, the increase in potential evapotranspiration due to increased atmospheric water-holding capacity, a secondary impact of warming, works to increase aridity over the humid monsoon region despite an enhanced water supply and relatively less warming. Our results show significant drying effects of warming over the humid monsoon region in recent decades; this also supports the drying trends over warm and water-sufficient regions in future climate.

  3. Cost trend analysis of initial cancer treatment in Taiwan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsai-Yun Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Despite the high cost of initial cancer care, that is, care in the first year after diagnosis, limited information is available for specific categories of cancer-related costs, especially costs for specific services. This study purposed to identify causes of change in cancer treatment costs over time and to perform trend analyses of the percentage of cancer patients who had received a specific treatment type and the mean cost of care for patients who had received that treatment. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analysis of trends in initial treatment costs focused on cancer-related surgery, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and treatments other than active treatments. For each cancer-specific trend, slopes were calculated for regression models with 95% confidence intervals. Analyses of patients diagnosed in 2007 showed that the National Health Insurance (NHI system paid, on average, $10,780 for initial care of a gastric cancer patient and $10,681 for initial care of a lung cancer patient, which were inflation-adjusted increases of $6,234 and $5,522, respectively, over the 1996 care costs. During the same interval, the mean NHI payment for initial care for the five specific cancers increased significantly (p<0.05. Hospitalization costs comprised the largest portion of payments for all cancers. During 1996-2007, the use of chemotherapy and radiation therapy significantly increased in all cancer types (p<0.05. In 2007, NHI payments for initial care for these five cancers exceeded $12 billion, and gastric and lung cancers accounted for the largest share. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In addition to the growing number of NHI beneficiaries with cancer, treatment costs and the percentage of patients who undergo treatment are growing. Therefore, the NHI must accurately predict the economic burden of new chemotherapy agents and radiation therapies and may need to develop programs for stratifying patients according to their potential benefit

  4. Physical activity trends in Queensland (2002 to 2008): are women becoming more active than men?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandelanotte, Corneel; Duncan, Mitch J; Caperchione, Cristina; Hanley, Christine; Mummery, W Kerry

    2010-06-01

    Regular monitoring of population levels of physical activity is an effective way to assess change over time towards meeting public health recommendations. The objective of this study was to determine physical activity trends in Central Queensland over the period 2002 to 2008. Data was obtained from the Central Queensland Social Survey (CQSS) conducted annually from 2002 to 2008. A total sample of 8,936 adults aged 18 and over participated in seven cross-sectional surveys. Physical activity was measured using the Active Australia Questionnaire. Binary logistic regression was used to examine trends in sufficient physical activity. Averaged over all survey years 46.5% of study participants met national physical activity guidelines. A small significant upward trend was found for meeting physical activity recommendations across all years (OR=1.03; 95%CI=1.01-1.05), indicating that the odds of meeting the guidelines increased by an average of 3% per year from 2002 to 2008. Slightly more men than women met the activity guidelines (ns); however a significant positive trend in achieving sufficient activity levels was present in women only (4%). Although an increasing trend for sufficient physical activity was observed, overall physical activity levels in Central Queensland remain suboptimal and more efforts to increase physical activity are needed. The gender differences in physical activity trends indicate that men and women might need to be targeted differently in health promotion messages. The continuous monitoring of population levels of physical activity in Australia, which allow both state specific and international comparisons, is needed.

  5. Trends in gender differences in accidents mortality: Relationships to changing gender roles and other societal trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inga Earle

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available This study tests five hypotheses concerning trends in gender differences in accidents mortality and accident-related behavior, using data for the US, UK, France, Italy, and Japan, 1950-98. As predicted by the Convergence Hypothesis, gender differences have decreased for amount of driving, motor vehicle accidents mortality, and occupational accidents mortality. However, for many types of accidents mortality, gender differences were stable or increased; these trends often resulted from the differential impact on male and female mortality of general societal trends such as increased illicit drug use or improved health care. Similarly, trends in gender differences in accident-related behavior have shown substantial variation and appear to have been influenced by multiple factors, including gender differences in rates of adoption of different types of innovations.

  6. Physical Functioning Trends among US Women and Men Age 45-64 by Education Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zajacova, Anna; Montez, Jennifer Karas

    2017-01-01

    Functional limitations and disability declined in the US during the 1980s and 1990s, but reports of early 21st century trends are mixed. Whether educational inequalities in functioning increased or decreased is also poorly understood. Given the importance of disability for productivity, independent living, and health care costs, these trends are critical to US social and health policies. We examine recent trends in functional limitations and disability among women and men aged 45-64. Using 2000-2015 National Health Interview Surveys data on over 155,000 respondents, semiparametric and logistic regression models visualize and test functioning trends by education. Among women and men with at least a college degree, there was no change in disability and mild increase in limitations over time. All other education levels experienced significant increases in functioning problems ranging from 18% higher odds of functional limitations in 2015 compared to 2000 among men with some college to about 80% increase in the odds of disability among women and men with less than high school education. The similar trends for both genders suggest common underlying causes, possibly including the worsening economic well-being of middle- and working-class families. The pervasive growth of functioning problems is a cause for concern that necessitates further scholarly investigation.

  7. Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

  8. Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. U. Hasson

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250–4500 m a.s.l. for their overlapping period of record (1995–2012 and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record (1961–2012. For this, a Mann–Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field- significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995–2012, we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September, which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid- to late melt season (particularly in July. Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends (1961–2012, most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime

  9. Prevailing climatic trends and runoff response from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, upper Indus Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasson, Shabeh ul; Böhner, Jürgen; Lucarini, Valerio

    2017-05-01

    Largely depending on the meltwater from the Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya, withdrawals from the upper Indus Basin (UIB) contribute half of the surface water availability in Pakistan, indispensable for agricultural production systems, industrial and domestic use, and hydropower generation. Despite such importance, a comprehensive assessment of prevailing state of relevant climatic variables determining the water availability is largely missing. Against this background, this study assesses the trends in maximum, minimum and mean temperatures, diurnal temperature range and precipitation from 18 stations (1250-4500 m a.s.l.) for their overlapping period of record (1995-2012) and, separately, from six stations of their long-term record (1961-2012). For this, a Mann-Kendall test on serially independent time series is applied to detect the existence of a trend, while its true slope is estimated using the Sen's slope method. Further, locally identified climatic trends are statistically assessed for their spatial-scale significance within 10 identified subregions of the UIB, and the spatially (field-) significant climatic trends are then qualitatively compared with the trends in discharge out of corresponding subregions. Over the recent period (1995-2012), we find warming and drying of spring (field-significant in March) and increasing early melt season discharge from most of the subregions, likely due to a rapid snowmelt. In stark contrast, most of the subregions feature a field-significant cooling within the monsoon period (particularly in July and September), which coincides well with the main glacier melt season. Hence, a decreasing or weakly increasing discharge is observed from the corresponding subregions during mid- to late melt season (particularly in July). Such tendencies, being largely consistent with the long-term trends (1961-2012), most likely indicate dominance of the nival but suppression of the glacial melt regime, altering overall hydrology of the UIB in

  10. Euthanasia in Belgium: trends in reported cases between 2003 and 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dierickx, Sigrid; Deliens, Luc; Cohen, Joachim; Chambaere, Kenneth

    2016-01-01

    Background: In 2002, the Belgian Act on Euthanasia came into effect, regulating the intentional ending of life by a physician at the patient’s explicit request. We undertook this study to describe trends in officially reported euthanasia cases in Belgium with regard to patients’ sociodemographic and clinical profiles, as well as decision-making and performance characteristics. Methods: We used the database of all euthanasia cases reported to the Federal Control and Evaluation Committee on Euthanasia in Belgium between Jan. 1, 2003, and Dec. 31, 2013 (n = 8752). The committee collected these data with a standardized registration form. We analyzed trends in patient, decision-making and performance characteristics using a χ2 technique. We also compared and analyzed trends for cases reported in Dutch and in French. Results: The number of reported euthanasia cases increased every year, from 235 (0.2% of all deaths) in 2003 to 1807 (1.7% of all deaths) in 2013. The rate of euthanasia increased significantly among those aged 80 years or older, those who died in a nursing home, those with a disease other than cancer and those not expected to die in the near future (p euthanasia requests, beyond the legal requirements to do so (p euthanasia request (from 34.0% in 2003 to 42.6% in 2013). These trends were not significant for cases reported in French. Interpretation: Since legalization of euthanasia in Belgium, the number of reported cases has increased each year. Most of those receiving euthanasia were younger than 80 years and were dying of cancer. Given the increases observed among non–terminally ill and older patients, this analysis shows the importance of detailed monitoring of developments in euthanasia practice. PMID:27620630

  11. Secular trends of allergic asthma in Danish adults. The Copenhagen Allergy Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linneberg, A; Nielsen, N H; Madsen, F

    2001-01-01

    Numerous studies have reported increases in asthma prevalence among children world-wide. Less is known about similar trends in adults. We aimed to investigate whether the prevalence of allergic asthma symptoms had increased in an adult general population. Two cross-sectional surveys using identical......, the prevalence of allergic asthma symptoms increased significantly in this adult general population over a 9-year period....

  12. Trends in the Relationship Between Obesity and Disability, 1988-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Virginia W; Alley, Dawn E; Dowd, Jennifer Beam

    2017-09-15

    Rising obesity rates, coupled with population aging, have elicited serious concern over the impact of obesity on disability in later life. Prior work showed a significant increase in the association between obesity and disability from 1988 to 2004, calling attention to disability as a cost of longer lifetime exposure to obesity. It is not known whether this trend has continued. We examined functional impairment and impairment in activities of daily living (ADL) (defined as severe or moderate to severe) for adults aged 60 years or older (n = 16,770) over 3 time periods in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The relative odds of impairment for obese individuals versus normal-weight individuals significantly increased from period 1 (1988-1994) to period 2 (1999-2004) for all outcomes. In period 3 (2005-2012), this association remained stable for functional and severe ADL impairment and decreased for moderate-to-severe ADL impairment. The fraction of population disability attributable to obesity followed a similar trend. The trend of an increasing association between obesity and disability has leveled off in more recent years, and is even improving for some measures. These findings suggest that public health and policy concerns that obesity would continue to become more disabling over time have not been borne out. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Increasing socioeconomic inequality in childhood undernutrition in urban India: trends between 1992-93, 1998-99 and 2005-06.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Abhishek; Kumari, Divya; Singh, Aditya

    2015-10-01

    This article examines the trends and pattern in socioeconomic inequality in stunting, underweight and wasting among children aged inequality in childhood undernutrition in urban India has increased over the study period. The salient findings of this study call for separate programmes targeting the children of lower socioeconomic groups in urban population of India. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2014; all rights reserved.

  14. Annual trends in catchability and fish stock assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marchal Paul

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available A key assumption of many fish stock assessment models is that catchability is constant over time. We assume here that trends in catchability may occur through fishing power creeping. The tuning fleets, which are prone to fishing power development, may be identified using the Hybrid method. A range of catchability trends, including values derived from the Hybrid method, is then implemented to standardise the fishing effort of some tuning fleets used in the stock assessments performed by XSA (eXtended Survivors Analysis. Stocks being assessed are the North Sea cod, saithe, plaice and sole. The performances of the new and traditional XSA assessments are compared using criteria based on the precision of catchability estimates, stationarity of Log-catchability residuals and retrospective patterns relative to fishing mortality, spawning stock biomass and recruitment estimates. The performances of the North Sea cod, plaice and sole assessments could be enhanced by accounting for an overall annual increase in the catchability of some of the tuning fleets. No significant trends could be detected in the catchability of the tuning fleets relative to the assessment of the North Sea saithe. By contrast with the traditional assessment, the spawning biomass of cod is expected not to have increased between 1997 and 1998, while the fishing mortality of sole is expected to have increased over the same period.

  15. Suicide rates: age-associated trends and their correlates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajit Shah

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Suicide rates traditionally increased with ageing. There is a paucity of studies examining factors associated with age-associated trends in suicide rates. METHODS: The relationship between suicide rates and ageing was examined by ascertaining suicide rates in the seven age-bands 16-24 years to 75+ years from the World Health Organization for 97 countries. The relationship between socio-economic status, income inequality, healthcare expenditure, child mortality rates and life expectancy and countries with an increase, a decline and no change in suicide rates with ageing was examined using data from the United Nations. RESULTS: In males and females there was a decline in 5 and 10 countries, an increase in 33 and 37 countries and no change in 59 and 50 countries respectively in suicide rates with ageing. Age-associated trends in suicide rates were significantly associated with socio-economic status (males or income inequality (females, per capita expenditure in healthcare, the proportion of gross-national domestic product spent on healthcare, child mortality rates and life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: The current study, of factors associated with age-associated trends in suicide rates, confirmed a previously developed five sequential stage model to explain the relationship between elderly suicide rates and socio-economic status and income inequality, quality and quantity of healthcare services, child mortality rates and life expectancy.

  16. Creating knowledge structures in the pharmaceutical industry: the increasing significance of virtual organisation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar, A; Howells, J

    2000-01-01

    This paper explores the specific trend and challenges facing the pharmaceutical industry regarding the exploitation of Internet e-commerce technology and virtual organisation to develop and maintain competitive advantage. There are two important facets of the current trend. One is the rapid development of a complex network of alliances between the established pharmaceutical companies and the specialised biotechnology company start-ups. The other is the rapid growth of internet e-commerce companies dedicated to developing specialised technological platforms for acquiring and selling genetic and biochemical knowledge. The underlying challenge is how big pharmaceutical companies can emulate some of the innovation processes of smaller biotechnology company start-ups, and how they can appropriate and applied new technological knowledge on the development of new drugs. Pharmaceutical companies in order to retain competitive advantage need to continuously monitor all aspects of knowledge management with regard to the R&D and manufacturing process (as well as customer management and marketing). Technological change and organisational restructuring should be aimed at boosting the capacity of large firms to innovate rapidly.

  17. Non-parametric trend analysis of the aridity index for three large arid and semi-arid basins in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahani, Hossien; Kherad, Mehrzad; Kousari, Mohammad Reza; van Roosmalen, Lieke; Aryanfar, Ramin; Hosseini, Seyyed Mashaallah

    2013-05-01

    Currently, an important scientific challenge that researchers are facing is to gain a better understanding of climate change at the regional scale, which can be especially challenging in an area with low and highly variable precipitation amounts such as Iran. Trend analysis of the medium-term change using ground station observations of meteorological variables can enhance our knowledge of the dominant processes in an area and contribute to the analysis of future climate projections. Generally, studies focus on the long-term variability of temperature and precipitation and to a lesser extent on other important parameters such as moisture indices. In this study the recent 50-year trends (1955-2005) of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and aridity index (AI) in monthly time scale were studied over 14 synoptic stations in three large Iran basins using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Additionally, an analysis of the monthly, seasonal and annual trend of each parameter was performed. Results showed no significant trends in the monthly time series. However, PET showed significant, mostly decreasing trends, for the seasonal values, which resulted in a significant negative trend in annual PET at five stations. Significant negative trends in seasonal P values were only found at a number of stations in spring and summer and no station showed significant negative trends in annual P. Due to the varied positive and negative trends in annual P and to a lesser extent PET, almost as many stations with negative as positive trends in annual AI were found, indicating that both drying and wetting trends occurred in Iran. Overall, the northern part of the study area showed an increasing trend in annual AI which meant that the region became wetter, while the south showed decreasing trends in AI.

  18. Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

  19. Trends in Overweight and Obesity in Czech Schoolchildren from 1998 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamřík, Zdeněk; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Pavelka, Jan; Kalman, Michal; Sigmund, Erik

    2017-07-01

    Overweight and obesity in adolescents is associated with many health risks and considerable direct and indirect healthcare costs. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 11-, 13- and 15-year-old adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1998 to 2014. Data from five self-reported survey rounds (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014) of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Study (HBSC) were used to assess trends in overweight and obesity among Czech adolescents. The total sample consisted of 19,103 adolescents (51.2% girls). A logistic regression analysis was used to assess trends in different age and gender categories. From 1998 to 2014 a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed among boys in all age categories (11 years old 22.2% 1998 - 28.3% 2014 ; 13 years old 17.9% 1998 - 26.7% 2014 ; 15 years old 9.8% 1998 - 20.8% 2014 ) and among 15-year-old girls (6.0% 1998 - 10.9% 2014 ). None of the age and gender categories showed an overall decrease over the 16-year period. In boys, the prevalence of overweight was significantly higher with steeper negative trends compared with girls. However, stabilization in overweight rates was observed between 2010 and 2014 in all age and gender groups. Nationally representative self-reported data show a significant increase in overweight (including obesity) prevalence among children from 1998 to 2014 in the Czech Republic. The results also suggest stabilization in overweight prevalence between 2010 and 2014. Continuing research is needed to determine future trends while interventions aimed at reducing overweight and obesity in children should be implemented on different levels of public policy. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

  20. Trends of abortion complications in a transition of abortion law revisions in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Yirgu; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan

    2009-03-01

    Evidence from developed countries has shown that abortion-related mortality and morbidity has decreased with the liberalization of the abortion law. This study aimed to assess the trend of hospital-based abortion complications during the transition of legalization in Ethiopia in May 2005. Medical records of women with abortion complications from 2003 to 2007 were reviewed (n = 773). Abortion and its complications with regard to legalization were described by rates and ratios, and predictors of fatal outcomes were analyzed by logistic regression. The overall and abortion-related maternal mortality ratios (AMMRs) showed a non-statistically significant downward trend over the 5-year period. However, the case fatality rate of abortion increased from 1.1% in 2003 to 3.6% in 2007. Late gestational age, history of interference and presenting after new abortion legislation passed have been found to be significant predictors of mortality. Decreased trends of abortion ratio and the AMMR were identified, but the severity of abortion complications and the case fatality rate increased during the transition of legal revision.

  1. Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Serreze, Mark C.

    2001-01-01

    One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

  2. Precipitation and temperature trends over central Italy (Abruzzo Region): 1951-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scorzini, Anna Rita; Leopardi, Maurizio

    2018-02-01

    This study analyses spatial and temporal trends of precipitation and temperatures over Abruzzo Region (central Italy), using historical climatic data from a dense observation network. The results show a general, although not significant, negative trend in the regionally averaged annual precipitation (- 1.8% of the yearly mean rainfall per decade). This reduction is particularly evident in winter, especially at mountain stations (average - 3% change/decade). Despite this general decreasing trend, a partial rainfall recovery is observed after the 1980s. Furthermore, the majority of meteorological stations register a significant warming over the last 60 years, (mean annual temperature increase of + 0.15 °C/decade), which reflects a rise in both minimum and maximum temperatures, with the latter generally increasing at a faster rate. Spring and summer are the seasons which contribute most to the general temperature increase, in particular at high elevation sites, which exhibit a more pronounced warming (+ 0.24 °C/decade). However, this tendency has not been uniform over 1951-2012, but it has been characterised by a cooling phenomenon in the first 30 years (1951-1981), followed by an even stronger warming during the last three decades (1982-2012). Finally, correlations between the climatic variables and the dominant teleconnection patterns in the Mediterranean basin are analysed to identify the potential influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics on observed trends in Abruzzo. The results highlight the dominant role of the East-Atlantic pattern on seasonal temperatures, while more spatially heterogeneous associations, depending on the complex topography of the region, are identified between winter precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation, East-Atlantic and East-Atlantic/Western Russian patterns.

  3. Gender trends in dental leadership and academics: a twenty-two-year observation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Judy Chia-Chun; Lee, Damian J; Kongkiatkamon, Suchada; Ross, Sasha; Prasad, Soni; Koerber, Anne; Sukotjo, Cortino

    2010-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine gender disparities in dental leadership and academics in the United States. Nine journals that represent the dental specialties and high published impact factors were selected to analyze the percentage of female dentists' first and senior authorship for the years 1986, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2008. Data on appointment status and female deanship were collected from the American Dental Association (ADA) survey, and the trends were studied. The proportion of female presidents in ADA-recognized specialty organizations was also calculated. Overall, the increase in first female authorship was not statistically significant, but the increase of last female authorship was statistically significant in a linear trend over the years. The percentage of tenured female faculty members and female deans in U.S. dental schools increased by factors of 1.7 and 9, respectively, during the study period. However, female involvement in professional organizations was limited. Findings from this study indicate that female participation in authorship and leadership has increased over time. Nevertheless, females are still a minority in dental academics and leadership.

  4. Trends in social security benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer from 2006 to 2013 in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bomfim, Rafael Aiello; Cascaes, Andreia Morales

    2018-01-01

    to analyze the trends in the concession of social security sick pay for oral and oropharyngeal cancer, from 2006 to 2013, in Brazil. time series study using data of workers insured by the Brazilian National Institute of Social Security (INSS); Prais-Winsten generalized linear regressions were used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC). social security benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer presented significant increase (APC=9.0%; 95%CI 1.4; 17.4); benefits for other parts of the mouth, nasopharynx, oropharynx, floor of mouth and palate have also shown significant increase; the areas of trade (5.5%) and manufacturing (5.2%) were the most prevalent activities; there was a high proportion of fields in blank in the information systems (average of 72.9%). trends in occupational benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer showed significant increase.

  5. Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaagus, J.

    1996-01-01

    Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

  6. Trends in hospitalization for atrial fibrillation: epidemiology, cost, and implications for the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheikh, Azfar; Patel, Nileshkumar J; Nalluri, Nikhil; Agnihotri, Kanishk; Spagnola, Jonathan; Patel, Aashay; Asti, Deepak; Kanotra, Ritesh; Khan, Hafiz; Savani, Chirag; Arora, Shilpkumar; Patel, Nilay; Thakkar, Badal; Patel, Neil; Pau, Dhaval; Badheka, Apurva O; Deshmukh, Abhishek; Kowalski, Marcin; Viles-Gonzalez, Juan; Paydak, Hakan

    2015-01-01

    Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent arrhythmia worldwide and the most common arrhythmia leading to hospitalization. Due to a substantial increase in incidence and prevalence of AF over the past few decades, it attributes to an extensive economic and public health burden. The increasing number of hospitalizations, aging population, anticoagulation management, and increasing trend for disposition to a skilled facility are drivers of the increasing cost associated with AF. There has been significant progress in AF management with the release of new oral anticoagulants, use of left atrial catheter ablation, and novel techniques for left atrial appendage closure. In this article, we aim to review the trends in epidemiology, hospitalization, and cost of AF along with its future implications on public health. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. TRENDS IN CROATIAN HOTEL INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasmina GRZINIC

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Tourism and hotel business is becoming one of the leading industries of theworld. Therefore, an increased attention needs to be paid to the study oftrends in tourism because they determine the trends in hotel industry. Thepurpose of the paper is to point out the importance of hotel industry as one ofthe most important elements of development in tourist economies. The paperaims at introducing the newest trends in modern hotel industry and offering areview of the recent trends of demand and the directions of hotel industrydevelopment. The importance of hotel industry on both micro and macro, i.e.global level is increasing. Besides a series of theoretical representations andconclusions, this paper brings some concrete data and examples frompractice in hotel management.

  8. Evidence of increasing sedentarism in Mexico City during the last decade: Sitting time prevalence, trends, and associations with obesity and diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Catalina; Tolentino-Mayo, Lizbeth; López-Ridaura, Ruy; Barquera, Simón

    2017-01-01

    Sedentary behaviors such as sitting time are associated with obesity and diabetes independently of total reported physical activity. This study aimed to describe the current sitting time/day prevalence and trends and to examine the association of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical variables in Mexico City. Two cross-sectional representative surveys in Mexico City were used for this analysis (2006: n = 1148 and 2015: n = 1329). Sedentary behavior questions from the International Physical Activity Questionnaire included time spent sitting on a weekday in the last week or on a Wednesday. Sitting time /day was divided into deciles, and participants in the highest decile (≥ 420 minutes/day) were classified within the high sitting category; others were classified in the low sitting time category. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical indicators, controlling for confounders and testing for potential interactions. A total of 13.7% (2006) and 14.8% (2015) adults were classified in the highest sitting time category (≥ 420 minutes/day). There was a significant increase in the average sitting time/day between the surveys (216.0 minutes in 2006 vs. 233.3 minutes in 2015, p obesity (OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.11, 5.09) and those with high glucose levels (survey finding) (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.25) were more likely to report sitting time in the highest category. Sitting time/day prevalence increased 8%, and average daily sitting minutes significantly increased by 8.2% (18 minutes) in the nine-year study period (2006-2015). Current public health policies should consider strategies not only for increasing physical activity levels, but also for reducing sitting time/day among the population as a measure to fight the growing epidemic of obesity and diabetes in Mexico.

  9. Increasing ozone in marine boundary layer inflow at the west coasts of North America and Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. D. Parrish

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available An effective method is presented for determining the ozone (O3 mixing ratio in the onshore flow of marine air at the North American west coast. By combining the data available from all marine boundary layer (MBL sites with simultaneous wind data, decadal temporal trends of MBL O3 in all seasons are established with high precision. The average springtime temporal trend over the past two decades is 0.46 ppbv/yr with a 95% confidence limit of 0.13 ppbv/yr, and statistically significant trends are found for all seasons except autumn, which does have a significantly smaller trend than other seasons. The average trend in mean annual ozone is 0.34±0.09 ppbv/yr. These decadal trends at the North American west coast present a striking comparison and contrast with the trends reported for the European west coast at Mace Head, Ireland. The trends in the winter, spring and summer seasons compare well at the two locations, while the Mace Head trend is significantly greater in autumn. Even though the trends are similar, the absolute O3 mixing ratios differ markedly, with the marine air arriving at Europe in all seasons containing 7±2 ppbv higher ozone than marine air arriving at North America. Further, the ozone mixing ratios at the North American west coast show no indication of stabilizing as has been reported for Mace Head. In a larger historical context the background boundary layer O3 mixing ratios over the 130 years covered by available data have increased substantially (by a factor of two to three, and this increase continues at present, at least in the MBL of the Pacific coast region of North America. The reproduction of the increasing trends in MBL O3 over the past two decades, as well as the difference in the O3 mixing ratios between the two coastal regions will present a significant challenge for global chemical transport models. Further, the ability of the models to at least semi

  10. Investigation of Breakpoint and Trend of Daily Air Temperature Range for Mashhad, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    shideh shams

    2017-01-01

    same temperatures. Third, a revision of internal consistence was done, verifying that daily Tmax always exceeds daily Tmin. Fourth, the temporal coherency was tested by checking if consecutive temperature records differ by more than 8 degrees. The homogeneity of the series was tested by means of the Standard Normal Homogeneity test, the Buishand range and the Pettitt tests, on yearly, seasonal and monthly time scales. Breakpoint can be detected by means of these methods. In addition, Von Neumann ratio test was used to explore the series’ randomness. Having investigated data’s randomness in this study, series’ trend was determined by the Kendal-Tau test. Furthermore, the slope of the series’ trend was calculated using the Sen’s slope method. Results Discussion: Results indicated a decreasing trend in DTR during last 60 years (1951-2010 in Mashhad climatological station. Moreover, the results revealed that the slope of yearly DTR was decreasing (-0.029 ⁰C per year, which indicates that minimum air temperature values raise more maximum air temperature values. A breakpoint was detected during 1985. During 1951-1985, the average amount of DTR was 14.6⁰C, while this parameter reduced to 12.9⁰C for the period 1985-2010. The Kendall-Tau test was used to obtain the significance of trend during 1951-2010, 1951-1985 and 1985-2010. The results showed that during 1951-2010, DTR significantly reduced at a rate of 0.29oC per decade. However, between 1951 and 1985, DTR trend increased at a rate of 0.61oC per decade, while DTR trend between 1985 and 2010 reduced at a rate of 0.19 ⁰C per decade, which was not significant (P-value=5%. In the seasonal DTR series, the highest trend’s slope was calculated for the summer data (-0.43 ⁰C in a decade, while the lowest one accrued in spring (-0.15⁰C in a decade. From 1951 to 1985, DTR had an increasing trend, due to minimum air temperature’s downward trend. But from the late 1980 to 2010, as it was expected, downward

  11. Trend Analysis of Pahang River Using Non-Parametric Analysis: Mann Kendalls Trend Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Muhammad Azizi Amran; Fazureen Azaman; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Norsyuhada Hairoma

    2015-01-01

    Flood is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from 1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05. Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities. (author)

  12. Suicide mortality trends in young people aged 15 to 19 years in Lithuania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strukcinskiene, B; Andersson, R; Janson, S

    2011-11-01

    This paper considers the suicide mortality trends from 1990-2009 in young people aged 15 to 19 years in Lithuania. Suicide and injury mortality data, plus mortality data from all causes, were used to compare the trend lines. Suicide mortality rate in young people aged 15-19 years and in all population showed a rising trend from 1990, and then a decreasing trend from 2002 year. This trend was significant exclusively in boys. When comparing suicide deaths as a percentage of injury deaths and of all deaths in the age group 15-19 years, rising trends for boys were evident, whilst in girls, there was no evidence of change. In Lithuania, from early 1990s, the frequency of suicide increased amongst adults and young people aged 15-19 years. After 2002, a decrease in deaths by suicide was observed both for the whole population and for young people aged 15-19 years. The rise and fall was obvious for boys. The reasons for different trends may have been influenced by the political and socioeconomic instability in the 1990-2002 period, and the socioeconomic stability, together with active preventive measures, from 2002. Although the consumption of modern Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) increased during the same time, suicide mortality was again high during the economic crisis in 2008-2009. © 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

  13. Causes of spring vegetation growth trends in the northern mid–high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mao Jiafu; Shi Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E; Piao Shilong; Wang Xuhui

    2012-01-01

    The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial–temporal patterns of spring (April–May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid–high latitudes (NMH) (>25°N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI–temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity. (letter)

  14. Causes of spring vegetation greenness trends in the northern mid-high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, Jiafu [ORNL; Shi, Xiaoying [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Shilong, Dr. Piao [Peking University; Xuhui, Dr. Wang [Peking University

    2012-01-01

    The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial temporal patterns of spring (April May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid high latitudes (NMH) (>25 N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO2. Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity.

  15. Aerosol impacts on regional trends in atmospheric stagnation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascioli, N. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Previdi, M. J.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme pollution events pose a significant threat to human health and are a leading cause of premature mortality worldwide. While emissions of atmospheric pollutants and their precursors are projected to decrease in the future due to air quality legislation, future climate change may affect the underlying meteorological conditions that contribute to extreme pollution events. Stagnation events, characterized by weak winds and an absence of precipitation, contribute to extreme pollution by halting the removal of pollutants via advection and wet deposition. Here, we use a global climate model (GFDL-CM3) to show that regional stagnation trends over the historical period (1860-2005) are driven by changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, rather than rising greenhouse gases. In the northeastern and central United States, aerosol-induced changes in surface and upper level winds have produced significant decreases in the number of stagnant summer days, while decreasing precipitation in the southeast US has increased the number of stagnant summer days. Significant drying over eastern China in response to aerosol forcing contributed to increased stagnation. Additionally, this region was found to be particularly sensitive to changes in local emissions, indicating that improving air quality will also lessen stagnation. In Europe, we find a dipole pattern wherein stagnation decreases over southern Europe and increases over northern Europe in response to global increases in aerosol emissions. We hypothesize that this is due to changes in the large-scale circulation patterns associated with a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track. We find that in the future, the combination of declining aerosol emissions and the continued rise of greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a reversal of the historical stagnation trends.

  16. THE INCREASING TREND OF MEDICAL TOURIST FROM NORTHSUMATERA TO MALAYSIA: ANALYSIS ON SOCIO-ECONOMICFACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DestanulAulia

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It is MacReady (2007 who believed thatthere will be an up in the trend ofmedical tourism, this industry will grow about 20% worldwide. This couldhappen because of the socioe-conomic factors that support this condition. Asreported by SERI (2004, Leng (2006 andTourism Malaysia (2010, Indonesianpatients have been the largest foreign patients visited Malaysia. This trend isinteresting to learn further and this study aims at finding out the macroeconomicfactors which have influenced the numbers of people from North Sumateraseeking for medical treatment in Malaysia. Using secondary data, this surveystudy has regressed the number of North Sumatran medical tourist (as thedependent variable for the period of 2000-2011 to the independent variables suchas exchange rate, inflation and income per capita in order to find out the economicdeterminant of number of medicaltourists from North Sumatera. Thedemographic determinant choosen to studyas the only independent variable ispopulation for the same period of study. Finally, in order to incorporate the healthseeking behavior point of view, this studyused independent variables such as lifeexpectancy, health facilities, number ofdoctors and level of education as thedeterminant for the number of medical tourists from North Sumatera. The resultof regression for economic determinant showed that income and exchange ratewere positively and statistically significant determinant for the number of medicaltourists while the independent variableof inflation is not responsive to thechanges in the dependent variable of number of medical tourist. The result ofsingle regression of the independentvariable of population was foundsignificantly and positively tohave affected the numberof medical tourist. Fromfour of the health seeking behaviours asdependent variables, it is found that lifeexpectancy and the number ofhealth facilities was responsive to the changes ofthe number of medical tourist while the number of doctors and

  17. Back to "once a caesarean: always a caesarean"? A trend analysis in Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christmann-Schmid, Corina; Raio, Luigi; Scheibner, Katrin; Müller, Martin; Surbek, Daniel

    2016-11-01

    Caesarean sections (CS) have significantly increased worldwide and a previous CS is nowadays an important and increasingly reported indication to perform a repeat CS. There is a paucity of information in Switzerland on the incidence of repeat CS after previous CS and relationship between the rates of vaginal birth after CS (VBAC). The aim of this study was to analyse the actual trend in VBAC in Switzerland. We performed a retrospective cohort study to analyse the proportion of VBAC among all pregnant women with previous sections which give birth during two time periods (group 1:1998/1999 vs. group 2:2004/2005) in our tertiary care referral hospital and in the annual statistics of Swiss Women's Hospitals (ASF-Statistics). In addition, the proportion of induction of labour after a previous caesarean and its success was analysed. In both cohorts studied, we found a significant decrease of vaginal births (p Switzerland. There was no significant change in labour induction during the study period. While this trend might reflect an increasing demand for safety in pregnancy and childbirth, it concomitantly increases maternal risks of further pregnancies, and women need to be appropriately informed about long-term risks.

  18. Continuous background light significantly increases flashing-light enhancement of photosynthesis and growth of microalgae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Ghosh, Said; Fixler, Dror; Dubinsky, Zvy; Iluz, David

    2015-01-01

    Under specific conditions, flashing light enhances the photosynthesis rate in comparison to continuous illumination. Here we show that a combination of flashing light and continuous background light with the same integrated photon dose as continuous or flashing light alone can be used to significantly enhance photosynthesis and increase microalgae growth. To test this hypothesis, the green microalga Dunaliella salina was exposed to three different light regimes: continuous light, flashing light, and concomitant application of both. Algal growth was compared under three different integrated light quantities; low, intermediate, and moderately high. Under the combined light regime, there was a substantial increase in all algal growth parameters, with an enhanced photosynthesis rate, within 3days. Our strategy demonstrates a hitherto undescribed significant increase in photosynthesis and algal growth rates, which is beyond the increase by flashing light alone. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Breast-cancer-associated metastasis is significantly increased in a model of autoimmune arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das Roy, Lopamudra; Pathangey, Latha B; Tinder, Teresa L; Schettini, Jorge L; Gruber, Helen E; Mukherjee, Pinku

    2009-01-01

    Sites of chronic inflammation are often associated with the establishment and growth of various malignancies including breast cancer. A common inflammatory condition in humans is autoimmune arthritis (AA) that causes inflammation and deformity of the joints. Other systemic effects associated with arthritis include increased cellular infiltration and inflammation of the lungs. Several studies have reported statistically significant risk ratios between AA and breast cancer. Despite this knowledge, available for a decade, it has never been questioned if the site of chronic inflammation linked to AA creates a milieu that attracts tumor cells to home and grow in the inflamed bones and lungs which are frequent sites of breast cancer metastasis. To determine if chronic inflammation induced by autoimmune arthritis contributes to increased breast cancer-associated metastasis, we generated mammary gland tumors in SKG mice that were genetically prone to develop AA. Two breast cancer cell lines, one highly metastatic (4T1) and the other non-metastatic (TUBO) were used to generate the tumors in the mammary fat pad. Lung and bone metastasis and the associated inflammatory milieu were evaluated in the arthritic versus the non-arthritic mice. We report a three-fold increase in lung metastasis and a significant increase in the incidence of bone metastasis in the pro-arthritic and arthritic mice compared to non-arthritic control mice. We also report that the metastatic breast cancer cells augment the severity of arthritis resulting in a vicious cycle that increases both bone destruction and metastasis. Enhanced neutrophilic and granulocytic infiltration in lungs and bone of the pro-arthritic and arthritic mice and subsequent increase in circulating levels of proinflammatory cytokines, such as macrophage colony stimulating factor (M-CSF), interleukin-17 (IL-17), interleukin-6 (IL-6), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) may contribute

  20. Breast cancer-associated metastasis is significantly increased in a model of autoimmune arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das Roy, Lopamudra; Pathangey, Latha B; Tinder, Teresa L; Schettini, Jorge L; Gruber, Helen E; Mukherjee, Pinku

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Sites of chronic inflammation are often associated with the establishment and growth of various malignancies including breast cancer. A common inflammatory condition in humans is autoimmune arthritis (AA) that causes inflammation and deformity of the joints. Other systemic effects associated with arthritis include increased cellular infiltration and inflammation of the lungs. Several studies have reported statistically significant risk ratios between AA and breast cancer. Despite this knowledge, available for a decade, it has never been questioned if the site of chronic inflammation linked to AA creates a milieu that attracts tumor cells to home and grow in the inflamed bones and lungs which are frequent sites of breast cancer metastasis. Methods To determine if chronic inflammation induced by autoimmune arthritis contributes to increased breast cancer-associated metastasis, we generated mammary gland tumors in SKG mice that were genetically prone to develop AA. Two breast cancer cell lines, one highly metastatic (4T1) and the other non-metastatic (TUBO) were used to generate the tumors in the mammary fat pad. Lung and bone metastasis and the associated inflammatory milieu were evaluated in the arthritic versus the non-arthritic mice. Results We report a three-fold increase in lung metastasis and a significant increase in the incidence of bone metastasis in the pro-arthritic and arthritic mice compared to non-arthritic control mice. We also report that the metastatic breast cancer cells augment the severity of arthritis resulting in a vicious cycle that increases both bone destruction and metastasis. Enhanced neutrophilic and granulocytic infiltration in lungs and bone of the pro-arthritic and arthritic mice and subsequent increase in circulating levels of proinflammatory cytokines, such as macrophage colony stimulating factor (M-CSF), interleukin-17 (IL-17), interleukin-6 (IL-6), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and tumor necrosis factor

  1. Trends in picture communication

    OpenAIRE

    Speidel, Joachim

    1993-01-01

    In the past years significant progress was made with digital transmission of audiovisual services and most interesting trends are visible for the future. Such applications encompass interactive services, like videoconferencing, ISDN-videophone, storage of moving video and audio in computers or on CD, e.g. for multimedia applications. For distribution services, there is an unbroken trend from TV to HDTV. Strong emphasis is on compressed digital video even for transmission to the home.

  2. Global trends in infectious diseases at the wildlife-livestock interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiethoelter, Anke K; Beltrán-Alcrudo, Daniel; Kock, Richard; Mor, Siobhan M

    2015-08-04

    The role and significance of wildlife-livestock interfaces in disease ecology has largely been neglected, despite recent interest in animals as origins of emerging diseases in humans. Scoping review methods were applied to objectively assess the relative interest by the scientific community in infectious diseases at interfaces between wildlife and livestock, to characterize animal species and regions involved, as well as to identify trends over time. An extensive literature search combining wildlife, livestock, disease, and geographical search terms yielded 78,861 publications, of which 15,998 were included in the analysis. Publications dated from 1912 to 2013 and showed a continuous increasing trend, including a shift from parasitic to viral diseases over time. In particular there was a significant increase in publications on the artiodactyls-cattle and bird-poultry interface after 2002 and 2003, respectively. These trends could be traced to key disease events that stimulated public interest and research funding. Among the top 10 diseases identified by this review, the majority were zoonoses. Prominent wildlife-livestock interfaces resulted largely from interaction between phylogenetically closely related and/or sympatric species. The bird-poultry interface was the most frequently cited wildlife-livestock interface worldwide with other interfaces reflecting regional circumstances. This review provides the most comprehensive overview of research on infectious diseases at the wildlife-livestock interface to date.

  3. Global trends in infectious diseases at the wildlife–livestock interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiethoelter, Anke K.; Beltrán-Alcrudo, Daniel; Kock, Richard; Mor, Siobhan M.

    2015-01-01

    The role and significance of wildlife–livestock interfaces in disease ecology has largely been neglected, despite recent interest in animals as origins of emerging diseases in humans. Scoping review methods were applied to objectively assess the relative interest by the scientific community in infectious diseases at interfaces between wildlife and livestock, to characterize animal species and regions involved, as well as to identify trends over time. An extensive literature search combining wildlife, livestock, disease, and geographical search terms yielded 78,861 publications, of which 15,998 were included in the analysis. Publications dated from 1912 to 2013 and showed a continuous increasing trend, including a shift from parasitic to viral diseases over time. In particular there was a significant increase in publications on the artiodactyls–cattle and bird–poultry interface after 2002 and 2003, respectively. These trends could be traced to key disease events that stimulated public interest and research funding. Among the top 10 diseases identified by this review, the majority were zoonoses. Prominent wildlife–livestock interfaces resulted largely from interaction between phylogenetically closely related and/or sympatric species. The bird–poultry interface was the most frequently cited wildlife–livestock interface worldwide with other interfaces reflecting regional circumstances. This review provides the most comprehensive overview of research on infectious diseases at the wildlife–livestock interface to date. PMID:26195733

  4. Global health-related publications in otolaryngology are increasing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Kyle J; Creighton, Francis; Abdul-Aziz, Dunia; Cheney, Mack; Randolph, Gregory W

    2015-04-01

    Determine trends in global health-related publication in otolaryngology. A review of research databases. A search of publications available on PubMed and nine additional databases was undertaken reviewing two time periods 10 years apart for the timeframes 1998 to 2002 (early time period) and 2008 to 2012 (recent time period) using specific search terms to identify global health-related publications in otolaryngology. Publications were examined for region of origin, subspecialty, type of publication, and evidence of international collaboration. χ and t test analyses were used to identify trends. In the 1998 to 2002 time period, a total of 26 publications met inclusion criteria for the study, with a mean of 5.2 ± 2.8 publications per year. In the 2008 to 2012 time period, a total of 61 publications met inclusion criteria, with a mean of 12.3 ± 5.6 publications per year. The 235% increase in global health-related publications identified between the two study periods was statistically significant (P = .02). The absolute number of publications in which collaboration occurred between countries increased from three in the early time period to nine the recent time period. There has been a significant increase in the volume of global health-related publications in English language otolaryngology journals over the past decade, providing strong evidence of the increasing trend of global health as an academic pursuit within the field of otolaryngology. © 2014 The American Laryngological, Rhinological and Otological Society, Inc.

  5. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  6. Food Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, Nancy E.

    1991-01-01

    An overall perspective on trends in food consumption is presented. Nutrition awareness is at an all-time high; consumption is influenced by changes in disposable income, availability of convenience foods, smaller household size, and an increasing proportion of ethnic minorities in the population. (18 references) (LB)

  7. Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

    2014-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

  8. No increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury in a population-based annual temporal trends epidemiology study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, Kianoush; Shao, Min; Li, Guangxi; Williams, Amy W; Rule, Andrew D; Kremers, Walter K; Malinchoc, Michael; Gajic, Ognjen; Lieske, John C

    2017-09-01

    Recent literature suggests an increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI). We evaluated population-based trends of AKI over the course of nine years, using a validated electronic health record tool to detect AKI. All adult residents (18 years of age and older) of Olmsted County, Minnesota (MN), admitted to the Mayo Clinic Hospital between 2006 and 2014 were included. The incidence rate of AKI was calculated and temporal trends in the annual AKI incident rates assessed. During the nine-year study period, 10,283, and 41,847 patients were admitted to the intensive care unit or general ward, with 1,740 and 2,811 developing AKI, respectively. The unadjusted incidence rates were 186 and 287 per 100,000 person years in 2006 and reached 179 and 317 per 100,000 person years in 2014. Following adjustment for age and sex, there was no significant change in the annual AKI incidence rate during the study period with a Relative Risk of 0.99 per year (95% confidence interval 0.97-1.01) for intensive care unit patients and 0.993 per year (0.98-1.01) for the general ward patients. Similar results were obtained when the ICD-9 codes or administrative data for dialysis-requiring AKI was utilized to determine incident cases. Thus, despite the current literature that suggests an epidemic of AKI, we found that after adjusting for age and sex the incidence of AKI in the general population remained relatively stable over the last decade. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Increasing socioeconomic gap between the young and old: temporal trends in health and overall deprivation in England by age, sex, urbanity and ethnicity, 2004-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Mamas, Mamas A; van Marwijk, Harm; Buchan, Iain; Ryan, Andrew M; Doran, Tim

    2018-07-01

    At a low geographical level, little is known about the associations between population characteristics and deprivation, and their trends, which would be directly affected by the house market, labour pressures and government policies. We describe temporal trends in health and overall deprivation in England by age, sex, urbanity and ethnicity. Repeated cross-sectional whole population study for England, 2004-2015, at a low geographical level (average 1500 residents). We calculated weighted medians of the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) for each subgroup of interest. Over time, we observed increases in relative deprivation for people aged under 30, and aged 30-59, while median deprivation decreased for those aged 60 or over. Subgroup analyses indicated that relative overall deprivation was consistently higher for young adults (aged 20-29) and infants (aged 0-4), with increases in deprivation for the latter. Levels of overall deprivation in 2004 greatly varied by ethnicity, with the lowest levels observed for White British and the highest for Blacks. Over time, small reductions were observed in the deprivation gap between White British and all other ethnic groups. Findings were consistent across overall IMD and its health and disability subdomain, but large regional variability was also observed. Government policies, the financial crisis of 2008, education funding and the increasing cost of houses relative to real wages are important parameters in interpreting our findings. Socioeconomic deprivation is an important determinant of health and the inequalities this work highlights may have significant implications for future fiscal and healthcare policy. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  10. Decadal trends in beach morphology on the east coast of South Africa and likely causative factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Corbella

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Sandy shorelines are dynamic with constant changes that can cause hazards in developed areas. The causes of change may be either natural or anthropogenic. This paper evaluates evidence for shoreline changes and their causative factors using a case study on the east coast of South Africa. Beach morphology trends were found to be location-specific, but overall the beaches show a receding trend. It was hypothesized that wave, tide, sea level and wind trends as well as anthropogenic influences are causative factors, and their contributions to shoreline changes were evaluated. Maximum significant wave heights, average wave direction, peak period and storm event frequencies all show weak increasing trends, but only the increases in peak period and wave direction are statistically significant. The chronic beach erosion cannot be attributed to wave climate changes since they are still too small to explain the observations. Instead, the impacts of sea level rise and reductions in the supply of beach sediments are suggested as the main causative factors. The analysis also identifies a trend in the frequency of severe erosion events due to storms that coincide with a 4.5-yr extreme tide cycle, which demonstrates the potential impact of future sea level rise.

  11. Trends in total and daily precipitation indices in japan from 1901 to 2000

    OpenAIRE

    Nagata, Rena; Zaiki, Masumi

    2008-01-01

    Long-term trends in seasonal precipitation amount and daily precipitation indices were investigated for spring, summer, autumn, and winter with a daily precipitation dataset for Japan from 1901 to 2000. Heavy precipitation in spring and summer has significantly increased along the west coast of Japan. Such changes in precipitation have resulted in the increased heavy precipitation intensity. For autumn and winter, total precipitation significantly decreased in the Kanto district and central J...

  12. Signal trend identification with fuzzy methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reifman, J.; Tsoukalas, L. H.; Wang, X.; Wei, T. Y. C.

    1999-01-01

    A fuzzy-logic-based methodology for on-line signal trend identification is introduced. Although signal trend identification is complicated by the presence of noise, fuzzy logic can help capture important features of on-line signals and classify incoming power plant signals into increasing, decreasing and steady-state trend categories. In order to verify the methodology, a code named PROTREN is developed and tested using plant data. The results indicate that the code is capable of detecting transients accurately, identifying trends reliably, and not misinterpreting a steady-state signal as a transient one

  13. Increasing socioeconomic disparities in adolescent obesity

    OpenAIRE

    Frederick, Carl B.; Snellman, Kaisa; Putnam, Robert D.

    2014-01-01

    Childhood and youth obesity represent significant US public health challenges. Recent findings that the childhood obesity ‘‘epidemic’’ may have slightly abated have been met with relief from health professionals and popular media. However, we document that the overall trend in youth obesity rates masks a significant and growing class gap between youth from upper and lower socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds. Until 2002, obesity rates increased at similar rates for all adolescents, but sinc...

  14. Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souza, Eliana Amorim de; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8-1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9-4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3-6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1-4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females.

  15. Urbanization is Associated with Increased Trends in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Indigenous Populations: the PAI Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson da Costa Armstrong

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: The cardiovascular risk burden among diverse indigenous populations is not totally known and may be influenced by lifestyle changes related to the urbanization process. Objectives: To investigate the cardiovascular (CV mortality profile of indigenous populations during a rapid urbanization process largely influenced by governmental infrastructure interventions in Northeast Brazil. Methods: We assessed the mortality of indigenous populations (≥ 30 y/o from 2007 to 2011 in Northeast Brazil (Bahia and Pernambuco states. Cardiovascular mortality was considered if the cause of death was in the ICD-10 CV disease group or if registered as sudden death. The indigenous populations were then divided into two groups according to the degree of urbanization based on anthropological criteria:9,10 Group 1 - less urbanized tribes (Funi-ô, Pankararu, Kiriri, and Pankararé; and Group 2 - more urbanized tribes (Tuxá, Truká, and Tumbalalá. Mortality rates of highly urbanized cities (Petrolina and Juazeiro in the proximity of indigenous areas were also evaluated. The analysis explored trends in the percentage of CV mortality for each studied population. Statistical significance was established for p value < 0.05. Results: There were 1,333 indigenous deaths in tribes of Bahia and Pernambuco (2007-2011: 281 in Group 1 (1.8% of the 2012 group population and 73 in Group 2 (3.7% of the 2012 group population, CV mortality of 24% and 37%, respectively (p = 0.02. In 2007-2009, there were 133 deaths in Group 1 and 44 in Group 2, CV mortality of 23% and 34%, respectively. In 2009-2010, there were 148 deaths in Group 1 and 29 in Group 2, CV mortality of 25% and 41%, respectively. Conclusions: Urbanization appears to influence increases in CV mortality of indigenous peoples living in traditional tribes. Lifestyle and environmental changes due to urbanization added to suboptimal health care may increase CV risk in this population.

  16. Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; DenBleyker, Allison; Ma, Lan; Lindhjem, Chris; Yarwood, Greg

    2014-07-01

    On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of

  17. Global Energy Trends - 2016 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    of CO_2 emissions is good news compared to previous years. This is mainly due to the relative weakness of economic growth. Achieving the goals discussed at the COP21 (1.5 to 2 deg. temperature increase by the end of the century), in fact requires a lasting stagnation of global energy consumption and a strong reduction of CO_2 emissions. Thus, with a global GDP growth assumption of 3% per year, this would imply an average carbon intensity reduction target of 5 to 6% per year... (Source: EnerFuture Scenarios - Enerdata) If energy consumption is stagnating, however, we find different trends according to the markets: The oil market is particularly linked to the transport sector; the increase in demand recorded in 2015 (+2%) derives primarily from the increase in vehicle fleet (China, India...) and to a lesser extent from lower prices (particularly in the US). The decline in investments in the upstream sector leaves us to predict, however, a decrease in mid-term production capacity and new pressure on supply/demand.. Gas demand remained stable in 2015: The structural increase continues in the US (replacing coal); in a more cyclical manner, the demand benefited from a colder climate in Europe but fell sharply in Russia (economic recession). At the production level, the US is No. 1 worldwide before Russia, but with a downward trend for several months (shale gas). Coal consumption decreases: Confirming the surprise in 2014: thanks to a new decline observed in China (-3.7%) and in the US (-11%), and despite continued strong growth in India, demand for coal shrinks at the G20 level (-2.7%). Stagnation of power consumption: The demand in power has been stagnant for several years in developed countries. The result is more surprising for non-OECD countries, where growth shrinks significantly. Is this a sign of a slowdown of the increasing weight of power in the overall mix? Power mix continues its slow transformation: In recent years, energy policies have shown visible effects

  18. Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

    2015-11-02

    A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

  19. Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franciane F. Silva

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. RESULTS: Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually, while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females. CONCLUSIONS: The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis.

  20. Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P

    2014-01-01

    Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  1. Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and the Niger Rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilcox, C.; Bodian, A.; Vischel, T.; Panthou, G.; Quantin, G.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, West Africa has witnessed several floods of unprecedented magnitude. Although the evolution of hydrological extremes has been evaluated in the region to some extent, results lack regional coverage, significance levels, uncertainty estimations, model selection criteria, or a combination of the above. In this study, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions with and without various non-stationary temporal covariates are applied to annual maxima of daily discharge (AMAX) data sets in the Sudano-Guinean part of the Senegal River basin and in the Sahelian part of the Niger River basin. The data ranges from the 1950s to the 2010s. The two models of best fit most often selected (with an alpha=0.05 certainty level) were 1) a double-linear model for the central tendency parameter (μ) with stationary dispersion (σ) and 2) a double-linear model for both parameters. Change points are relatively consistent for the Senegal basin, with stations switching from a decreasing streamflow trend to an increasing streamflow trend in the early 1980s. In the Niger basin the trend in μ was generally positive with an increase in slope after the change point, but the change point location was less consistent. The study clearly demonstrates the significant trends in extreme discharge values in West Africa over the past six decades. Moreover, it proposes a clear methodology for comparing GEV models and selecting the best for use. The return levels generated from the chosen models can be applied to river basin management and hydraulic works sizing. The results provide a first evaluation of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological values in West Africa that is accompanied by significance levels, uncertainties, and non-stationary return level estimations .

  2. Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo

    2015-04-01

    We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

  3. Increased intracranial volume in Parkinson's disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabbe, Katja; Karlsborg, Merete; Hansen, Andreas

    2005-01-01

    segmentation and outlining of regions in order to identify regional volume changes that might be useful in the diagnosis of the two diseases. RESULTS: Patients with PD had significantly larger intracranial volumes (ICVs) and significantly smaller putaminal and sustantia nigra volumes than controls. MSA...... patients had significantly smaller substantia nigra and caudate volumes than controls but normal intracranial volume. In both patient groups there was a further trend towards smaller amygdala volumes. DISCUSSION: Increased ICV in PD patients is a new finding that may be explained by genetic factors...

  4. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

    2017-01-01

    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  5. Trends in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids in public supply wells of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins, San Bernardino County, California: influence of legacy land use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Robert; Landon, Matthew K

    2013-05-01

    Concentrations and temporal changes in concentrations of nitrate and total dissolved solids (TDS) in groundwater of the Bunker Hill, Lytle, Rialto, and Colton groundwater subbasins of the Upper Santa Ana Valley Groundwater Basin were evaluated to identify trends and factors that may be affecting trends. One hundred, thirty-one public-supply wells were selected for analysis based on the availability of data spanning at least 11 years between the late 1980s and the 2000s. Forty-one of the 131 wells (31%) had a significant (p<0.10) increase in nitrate and 14 wells (11%) had a significant decrease in nitrate. For TDS, 46 wells (35%) had a significant increase and 8 wells (6%) had a significant decrease. Slopes for the observed significant trends ranged from -0.44 to 0.91 mg/L/yr for nitrate (as N) and -8 to 13 mg/L/yr for TDS. Increasing nitrate trends were associated with greater well depth, higher percentage of agricultural land use, and being closer to the distal end of the flow system. Decreasing nitrate trends were associated with the occurrence of volatile organic compounds (VOCs); VOC occurrence decreases with increasing depth. The relations of nitrate trends to depth, lateral position, and VOCs imply that increasing nitrate concentrations are associated with nitrate loading from historical agricultural land use and that more recent urban land use is generally associated with lower nitrate concentrations and greater VOC occurrence. Increasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater current nitrate concentrations and relatively greater amounts of urban land. Decreasing TDS trends were associated with relatively greater amounts of natural land use. Trends in TDS concentrations were not related to depth, lateral position, or VOC occurrence, reflecting more complex factors affecting TDS than nitrate in the study area. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  6. Antimicrobial resistance trends among Escherichia coli isolates obtained from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States, 2004-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cummings, Kevin J; Aprea, Victor A; Altier, Craig

    2014-01-01

    Monitoring antimicrobial resistance trends among bacteria isolated from food animals and people is necessary to inform risk analyses and guide public policy regarding antimicrobial use. Our objectives were to describe the antimicrobial resistance status of Escherichia coli isolates from dairy cattle in the northeastern United States and to identify trends in resistance to selected antimicrobial agents over time. We collected data retrospectively for all bovine E. coli isolates that were obtained from samples submitted to Cornell University's Animal Health Diagnostic Center between January 1, 2004 and December 31, 2011. We investigated temporal trends in the prevalence of resistant E. coli for each antimicrobial agent using the Cochran-Armitage trend test. Antimicrobial susceptibility testing was performed on 3373 bovine E. coli isolates from clinical samples submitted during the study period. Overall resistance to each antimicrobial agent ranged from 2.7% (enrofloxacin) to 91.3% (oxytetracycline). There was evidence of a significantly decreasing trend in prevalence of resistance to several agents: chlortetracycline, florfenicol, neomycin, oxytetracycline, spectinomycin, and trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole. However, a significantly increasing trend in prevalence of resistance to enrofloxacin was also evident. These results do not support the idea that current antimicrobial use practices on dairy operations are driving a general increase in the emergence and dissemination of drug-resistant E. coli in the region served by the laboratory. However, resistance to some drugs remained consistently high during the study period, and increasing resistance to enrofloxacin is a key area of concern.

  7. On-line signal trend identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tambouratzis, T.; Antonopoulos-Domis, M.

    2004-01-01

    An artificial neural network, based on the self-organizing map, is proposed for on-line signal trend identification. Trends are categorized at each incoming signal as steady-state, increasing and decreasing, while they are further classified according to characteristics such signal shape and rate of change. Tests with model-generated signals illustrate the ability of the self-organizing map to accurately and reliably perform on-line trend identification in terms of both detection and classification. The proposed methodology has been found robust to the presence of white noise

  8. Evaluation of monthwise and overall trends of AOD over Indian cities using MODIS Aqua and Terra retrievals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banerjee, Subhasis; Ghosh, Sanjay

    2016-07-01

    care of seasonality in AOD values. Moreover we here used AQUA version 6 data set to compare with Terra 5.1. To our knowledge Aqua version 6 data set has yet not been used in any study over this region. In our study quality controlled "joint land and ocean" product (for almost one decade time) "Optical_Depth_Land_And_Ocean" (0.55 micron) has been used to estimate trend and only statistically significant trend (p=0.05 level) is only reported. We observed that thirty out of fifty cities show overall increasing trend in AOD by both the sensors whereas rest of the cities show increasing trend only by Aqua. Decadal increase in AOD value as reported by Terra is 2-10% whereas by Aqua 4-18%. Aqua consistently shows higher trend than Terra in all cases. After comparing data from both the sensors, we observed, for almost all the cities (except some cities lying in the southern part of the country) trend(increasing) is highest during the month of November, even in case of some north Indian cities November is the only month when significant trend is noticed. In case of most southern cities trend(increasing) is highest for the month of May. Strikingly, for most northern cities in the Indo-Gangetic plain Aqua shows significant overall trend whereas Terra shows no overall trend. But for southern cities both the sensors show similar trend. We also used AERONET level 2 data(0.50 micron) from Kanpur station to estimate trend using same method and found overall trend as estimated using Aqua (10 %) data is pretty close to that found using AERONET(9%)data.

  9. National Trends in the Prevalence and Treatment of Depression in Adolescents and Young Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mojtabai, Ramin; Olfson, Mark; Han, Beth

    2016-12-01

    This study examined national trends in 12-month prevalence of major depressive episodes (MDEs) in adolescents and young adults overall and in different sociodemographic groups, as well as trends in depression treatment between 2005 and 2014. Data were drawn from the National Surveys on Drug Use and Health for 2005 to 2014, which are annual cross-sectional surveys of the US general population. Participants included 172 495 adolescents aged 12 to 17 and 178 755 adults aged 18 to 25. Time trends in 12-month prevalence of MDEs were examined overall and in different subgroups, as were time trends in the use of treatment services. The 12-month prevalence of MDEs increased from 8.7% in 2005 to 11.3% in 2014 in adolescents and from 8.8% to 9.6% in young adults (both P age range of 12 to 20 years. The trends remained significant after adjustment for substance use disorders and sociodemographic factors. Mental health care contacts overall did not change over time; however, the use of specialty mental health providers increased in adolescents and young adults, and the use of prescription medications and inpatient hospitalizations increased in adolescents. The prevalence of depression in adolescents and young adults has increased in recent years. In the context of little change in mental health treatments, trends in prevalence translate into a growing number of young people with untreated depression. The findings call for renewed efforts to expand service capacity to best meet the mental health care needs of this age group. Copyright © 2016 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  10. Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iqra Atif

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Upper Indus basin (UIB is characterized by contrasting hydrometeorological behaviors; therefore, it has become pertinent to understand hydrometeorological trends at the sub-watershed level. Many studies have investigated the snow cover and hydrometeorological modeling at basin level but none have reported the spatial variability of trends and their magnitude at a sub-basin level. This study was conducted to analyze the trends in the contrasting hydrological regimes of the snow and glacier-fed river catchments of the Hunza and Astore sub-basins of the UIB. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to study the main trends and their magnitude using MODIS snow cover information (2001–2015 and hydrometeorological data. The results showed that in the Hunza basin, the river discharge and temperature were significantly (p ≤ 0.05 decreased with a Sen’s slope value of −2.541 m3·s−1·year−1 and −0.034 °C·year−1, respectively, while precipitation data showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05 increasing trend with a Sen’s slope value of 0.023 mm·year−1. In the Astore basin, the river discharge and precipitation are increasing significantly (p ≤ 0.05 with a Sen’s slope value of 1.039 m3·s−1·year−1 and 0.192 mm·year−1, respectively. The snow cover analysis results suggest that the Western Himalayas (the Astore basin had a stable trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.07% year−1 and the Central Karakoram region (the Hunza River basin shows a slightly increasing trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.394% year−1. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that since both sub-basins are influenced by different climatological systems (monsoon and westerly, the results of those studies that treat the Upper Indus basin as one unit in hydrometeorological modeling should be used with caution. Furthermore, it is suggested that similar studies at the sub-basin level of the UIB will help in a better understanding of the

  11. Demographic trends among older cannabis users in the United States, 2006–13

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Benjamin H.; Sherman, Scott; Mauro, Pia M.; Martins, Silvia S.; Rotenberg, James; Palamar, Joseph J.

    2017-01-01

    Background and Aims The ageing US population is providing an unprecedented population of older adults who use recreational drugs. We aimed to estimate the trends in the prevalence of past-year use of cannabis, describe the patterns and attitudes and determine correlates of cannabis use by adults age 50 years and older. Design Secondary analysis of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health survey from 2006 to 2013, a cross-sectional survey given to a nationally representative probability sample of populations living in US households. Setting USA. Participants A total of 47 140 survey respondents aged ≥ 50 years. Measures Estimates and trends of past-year use of cannabis. Findings The prevalence of past-year cannabis use among adults aged ≥ 50 increased significantly from 2006/07 to 2012/13, with a 57.8% relative increase for adults aged 50–64 (linear trend P aged ≥ 65 (linear trend P = 0.002). When combining data from 2006 to 2013, 6.9% of older cannabis users met criteria for cannabis abuse or dependence, and the majority of the sample reported perceiving no risk or slight risk associated with monthly cannabis use (85.3%) or weekly use (79%). Past-year users were more likely to be younger, male, non-Hispanic, not have multiple chronic conditions and use tobacco, alcohol or other drugs compared with non-past-year cannabis users. Conclusions The prevalence of cannabis use has increased significantly in recent years among US adults aged ≥ 50 years. PMID:27767235

  12. Trends and periodicity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes during 1960-2013 in Hunan Province, central south China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ajiao; He, Xinguang; Guan, Huade; Cai, Yi

    2018-04-01

    In this study, the trends and periodicity in climate extremes are examined in Hunan Province over the period 1960-2013 on the basis of 27 extreme climate indices calculated from daily temperature and precipitation records at 89 meteorological stations. The results show that in the whole province, temperature extremes exhibit a warming trend with more than 50% stations being statistically significant for 7 out of 16 temperature indices, and the nighttime temperature increases faster than the daytime temperature at the annual scale. The changes in most extreme temperature indices show strongly coherent spatial patterns. Moreover, the change rates of almost all temperature indices in north Hunan are greater than those of other regions. However, the statistically significant changes in indices of extreme precipitation are observed at fewer stations than in extreme temperature indices, forming less spatially coherent patterns. Positive trends in indices of extreme precipitation show that the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation events are generally increasing in both annual and seasonal scales, whereas the significant downward trend in consecutive wet days indicates that the precipitation becomes more even over the study period. Analysis of changes in probability distributions of extreme indices for 1960-1986 and 1987-2013 also demonstrates a remarkable shift toward warmer condition and increasing tendency in the amount and intensity of extreme precipitation during the past decades. The variations in extreme climate indices exhibit inconstant frequencies in the wavelet power spectrum. Among the 16 temperature indices, 2 of them show significant 1-year periodic oscillation and 7 of them exhibit significant 4-year cycle during some certain periods. However, significant periodic oscillations can be found in all of the precipitation indices. Wet-day precipitation and three absolute precipitation indices show significant 1-year cycle and other seven provide

  13. Analysis of global water vapour trends from satellite measurements in the visible spectral range

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Mieruch

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Global water vapour total column amounts have been retrieved from spectral data provided by the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME flying on ERS-2, which was launched in April 1995, and the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY onboard ENVISAT launched in March 2002. For this purpose the Air Mass Corrected Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (AMC-DOAS approach has been used. The combination of the data from both instruments provides us with a long-term global data set spanning more than 11 years with the potential of extension up to 2020 by GOME-2 data on MetOp.

    Using linear and non-linear methods from time series analysis and standard statistics the trends of H2O columns and their errors have been calculated. In this study, factors affecting the trend such as the length of the time series, the magnitude of the variability of the noise, and the autocorrelation of the noise are investigated. Special emphasis has been placed on the calculation of the statistical significance of the observed trends, which reveal significant local changes from −5% per year to +5% per year. These significant trends are distributed over the whole globe. Increasing trends have been calculated for Greenland, East Europe, Siberia and Oceania, whereas decreasing trends have been observed for the northwest USA, Central America, Amazonia, Central Africa and the Arabian Peninsular.

  14. TEMPORAL TRENDS IN THE DETECTION RATES OF HEPATITIS B IN THE SANTA CATARINA STATE, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chaiana Esmeraldino Mendes Marcon

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Hepatitis B is a serious public health problem. The state of Santa Catarina presents areas of high endemicity. The aim of this study was to describe temporal trends in detection rates of hepatitis B in the period from 2002 to 2009 in Santa Catarina and in its regions. A time series study was carried out. Crude rates were calculated and standardized by age using the direct method. Annual variation percentages were estimated by Joinpoint regression. There were two distinct and significant trends in Santa Catarina. From 2002 to 2006 a significant increase of 5.9% per year was observed. From 2006, there was a significant decrease of 6.4% per year. In this same period the southern and far-western regions had significant increases of 15.9% and 4.6% and significant decreases of 7.5% and 4.8%, respectively. Greater Florianópolis and Northeast also showed significant increases until 2006, of 15.4% and 17.4%, respectively. In the following period, non-significant decreases of 5.8% and 9.8% respectively were observed. Foz do Rio Itajaí and Planalto Serrano showed non-significant increases up to half of the studied period of 21.1% and 12.0%, respectively and after, significant decreases of 21.5% and 18.0%, respectively. Vale do Itajaí showed a significant decrease of 9.7%; Planalto Norte showed a non-significant decrease of 0.6% and Midwest a non-significant increase of 2.7% per year, in the period from 2002 to 2009.

  15. Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Valchev

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Storms are one of the most important phenomena producing coastal hazards and endangering human life and activities. In recent decades storm climate has become a subject of increased public awareness and knowledge of this issue can help the society to meet future challenges related to extreme storm manifestation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to assess trends in past and recent storminess in the western Black Sea. The analysis of storm climate is based on a continuous hindcast dataset covering a substantial historical time-span of 63 yr (1948–2010. It was used to create a storm population and to estimate properties describing storminess (proxies. This was done by introduction of criteria allowing separation of events with low probability of occurrence and at the same time keeping the information on their pattern, i.e. properties of storm phases. Eleven storminess proxies were analysed and the most indicative appeared to be storm duration; integral, mean and specific storm wave energy; and wind velocity and direction, which were obtained for each storm season.

    While experiencing significant variability on a quasi-decadal scale, no significant upward or downward trends in storminess were detected. For almost all proxies, an increasing trend until the 1980s or the 1990s and a return to average or even calm conditions in the late 2000s are traceable. On this background, a steady although not significant increase of wind velocity was detected. Results also indicate an alteration of storm pattern, manifested as shortening of storm duration due to a shift of the prevailing direction of storm forcing winds to the north. Nevertheless, incident wave energy in the storms' most intense phase remains significant. The obtained results are discussed with regard to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the hydrometeorological pattern of the Black Sea region as a part of the European-Atlantic area, in particular with respect to the

  16. Statistical Analysis of Development Trends in Global Renewable Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marina D. Simonova

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article focuses on the economic and statistical analysis of industries associated with the use of renewable energy sources in several countries. The dynamic development and implementation of technologies based on renewable energy sources (hereinafter RES is the defining trend of world energy development. The uneven distribution of hydrocarbon reserves, increasing demand of developing countries and environmental risks associated with the production and consumption of fossil resources has led to an increasing interest of many states to this field. Creating low-carbon economies involves the implementation of plans to increase the proportion of clean energy through renewable energy sources, energy efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The priority of this sector is a characteristic feature of modern development of developed (USA, EU, Japan and emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, etc., as evidenced by the inclusion of the development of this segment in the state energy strategies and the revision of existing approaches to energy security. The analysis of the use of renewable energy, its contribution to value added of countries-producers is of a particular interest. Over the last decade, the share of energy produced from renewable sources in the energy balances of the world's largest economies increased significantly. Every year the number of power generating capacity based on renewable energy is growing, especially, this trend is apparent in China, USA and European Union countries. There is a significant increase in direct investment in renewable energy. The total investment over the past ten years increased by 5.6 times. The most rapidly developing kinds are solar energy and wind power.

  17. 1990-2016 surface solar radiation variability and trend over the Piedmont region (northwest Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manara, Veronica; Bassi, Manuela; Brunetti, Michele; Cagnazzi, Barbara; Maugeri, Maurizio

    2018-05-01

    A new surface solar radiation database of 74 daily series is set up for the Piedmont region (northwest Italy) for the 1990-2016 period. All the series are subjected to a detailed quality control, homogenization and gap-filling procedure and are transformed into relative annual/seasonal anomaly series. Finally, a gridded version (0.5°×0.5°) of the database is generated. The resulting series show an increasing tendency of about + 2.5% per decade at annual scale, with strongest trend in autumn (+ 4% per decade). The only exception is winter, showing a negative but not significant trend. Considering the plain and mountain mean series, the trends are more intense for low than for high elevations with a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.03% per decade per 100 m at annual scale and values up to - 0.07% per decade per 100 m in spring. Focusing on clear days only (selected by CM SAF ClOud fractional cover dataset from METeosat first and second generation—Edition 1 satellite data over the 1991-2015 period), trend significance strongly increases and both low and high elevation records exhibit a positive trend in all seasons. However, the trends result slightly lower than for all-sky days (with the only exception of winter). The differences observed under clear-sky conditions between low and high elevations are more pronounced in winter, where the trend shows a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.1% per decade every 100 m. Overall, this paper shows how a high station density allows performing a more detailed quality control thanks to the higher performances in detecting the inhomogeneities with higher data availability and capturing regional peculiarities otherwise impossible to observe.

  18. Emerging and continuing trends in psychotherapy: views from an editor's eye.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelso, Charles J

    2011-06-01

    It is proposed that six major trends in psychotherapy have continued or emerged over the course of the author's editorship of Psychotherapy, the past seven years. These trends are (a) the increasing integration of techniques and the therapeutic relationship; (b) increasing focus on theoretical integration; (c) increasing efforts at research-practice integration; (d) increases in more specific, integrative reviews; (e) integration of biological, neuroscience understandings; and (f) integration of diversity and cultural considerations into psychotherapy. Each trend is described and its impact on the field is discussed. Cautions about each trend are also noted. The six trends are discussed in the context of integration.

  19. Significance analysis of lexical bias in microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Falkow Stanley

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genes that are determined to be significantly differentially regulated in microarray analyses often appear to have functional commonalities, such as being components of the same biochemical pathway. This results in certain words being under- or overrepresented in the list of genes. Distinguishing between biologically meaningful trends and artifacts of annotation and analysis procedures is of the utmost importance, as only true biological trends are of interest for further experimentation. A number of sophisticated methods for identification of significant lexical trends are currently available, but these methods are generally too cumbersome for practical use by most microarray users. Results We have developed a tool, LACK, for calculating the statistical significance of apparent lexical bias in microarray datasets. The frequency of a user-specified list of search terms in a list of genes which are differentially regulated is assessed for statistical significance by comparison to randomly generated datasets. The simplicity of the input files and user interface targets the average microarray user who wishes to have a statistical measure of apparent lexical trends in analyzed datasets without the need for bioinformatics skills. The software is available as Perl source or a Windows executable. Conclusion We have used LACK in our laboratory to generate biological hypotheses based on our microarray data. We demonstrate the program's utility using an example in which we confirm significant upregulation of SPI-2 pathogenicity island of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium by the cation chelator dipyridyl.

  20. SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haren, van R.; Oldenborgh, van G.J.; Lenderink, G.; Collins, M.; Hazeleger, W.

    2013-01-01

    Clear precipitation trends have been observed in Europe over the past century. In winter, precipitation has increased in north-western Europe. In summer, there has been an increase along many coasts in the same area. Over the second half of the past century precipitation also decreased in southern

  1. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun

    2016-05-01

    Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0

  2. Trend of Legionella colonization in hospital water supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alessandro, D; Fabiani, M; Cerquetani, F; Orsi, G B

    2015-01-01

    In many nosocomial Legionella outbreaks water distribution systems are the most frequent source of infection. Considering the hospital waterline old age, an investigation on colonization by Legionella spp was carried out in order to evaluate the pipeline system weaknesses and to implement environmental preventive measures. From 2004 to 2010, overall 97 samples from the water line were collected. The samples were analyzed according to the italian Legionella spp standard methods; water temperature, pH and residual free chlorine were determined at the time of collection. X2 test, exact-test and t-test were used to compare proportions and means. Overall 28 samples (23.7%) were positive for Legionella spp, and five of them (17.9%) exceeded the threshold level >104 cfu/L. The number of positive samples varied along the years, showing a significant increasing trend (X2 for trend = 11.5; pLegionella spp by comparison to negative ones showed a lower free chlorine concentration (0.08 mg/L vs 0.15 mg/L) and a higher water temperature (46.1° vs 42.7°). Actually the percentage of positive samples decreased significantly with the increasing in free chlorine in the water (X2 for trend = 8.53; pLegionella. All hospital buildings were colonized by Legionella spp, although 80% of samples >104 cfu/L occurred in the C-building. No cases of nosocomial legionellosis were reported during the study period. Hospital water system showed a diffuse colonization by Legionella spp, although the degree of contamination reached the threshold level (>104 cfu/L) only in a small percentage of samples, showing a substantial effectiveness of the control measures applied.

  3. Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jing; Huang, Qiang; Chang, Jianxia; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Shengzhi; Shi, Xiaoyu

    2015-05-01

    The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. The relationship between runoff and precipitation in the Wei River Basin has been changed due to the changing climate and increasingly intensified human activities. In this paper, we determine abrupt changes in hydro-climatic variables and identify the main driving factors for the changes in the Wei River Basin. The nature of the changes is analysed based on data collected at twenty-one weather stations and five hydrological stations in the period of 1960-2010. The sequential Mann-Kendall test analysis is used to capture temporal trends and abrupt changes in the five sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin. A non-parametric trend test at the basin scale for annual data shows a decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff over the past fifty-one years. The temperature exhibits an increase trend in the entire period. The potential evaporation was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith equation, presenting an increasing trend of evaporation since 1990. The stations with a significant decreasing trend in annual runoff mainly are located in the west of the Wei River primarily interfered by human activities. Regression analysis indicates that human activity was possibly the main cause of the decline of runoff after 1970. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  4. Trends in incidence of lung cancer in Croatia from 2001 to 2013: gender and regional differences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siroglavić, Katarina Josipa; Polić Vižintin, Marina; Tripković, Ingrid; Šekerija, Mario; Kukulj, Suzana

    2017-10-31

    To provide an overview of the lung cancer incidence trends in the City of Zagreb (Zagreb), Split-Dalmatia County (SDC), and Croatia in the period from 2001 to 2013. Incidence data were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. For calculating incidence rates per 100 000 population, we used population estimates for the period 2001-2013 from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Age-standardized rates of lung cancer incidence were calculated by the direct standardization method using the European Standard Population. To describe incidence trends, we used joinpoint regression analysis. Joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer incidence in men in all regions, with an annual percentage change (APC) of -2.2% for Croatia, 1.9% for Zagreb, and -2.0% for SDC. In women, joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant increase in the incidence for Croatia, with APC of 1.4%, a statistically significant increase of 1.0% for Zagreb, and no significant change in trend for SDC. In both genders, joinpoint analysis showed a significant decrease in age-standardized incidence rates of lung cancer, with APC of -1.3% for Croatia, -1.1% for Zagreb, and -1.6% for SDC. There was an increase in female lung cancer incidence rate and a decrease in male lung cancer incidence rate in Croatia in 2001-20013 period, with similar patterns observed in all the investigated regions. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention and cessation policies, especially among women and young people.

  5. Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alexander, Lisa

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Nine global coupled climate models were assessed for their ability to reproduce observed trends in a set of indices representing temperature and precipitation extremes over Australia. Observed trends for 1957-1999 were compared with individual and multi-modelled trends calculated over the same period. When averaged across Australia the magnitude of trends and interannual variability of temperature extremes were well simulated by most models, particularly for the warm nights index. Except for consecutive dry days, the majority of models also reproduced the correct sign of trend for precipitation extremes. A bootstrapping technique was used to show that most models produce plausible trends when averaged over Australia, although only heavy precipitation days simulated from the multi-model ensemble showed significant skill at reproducing the observed spatial pattern of trends. Two of the models with output from different forcings showed that only with anthropogenic forcing included could the models capture the observed areally averaged trend for some of the temperature indices, but the forcing made little difference to the models' ability to reproduce the spatial pattern of trends over Australia. Future projected changes in extremes using three emissions scenarios were also analysed. Australia shows a shift towards significant warming of temperature extremes with much longer dry spells interspersed with periods of increased extreme precipitation irrespective of the scenario used. More work is required to determine whether regional projected changes over Australia are robust

  6. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.

    2017-12-01

    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  7. Trends of mortality from Alzheimer's disease in the European Union, 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, H; Alvarez-Alvarez, I; Guillen-Grima, F; Al-Rahamneh, M J; Aguinaga-Ontoso, I

    2017-06-01

    In many countries, Alzheimer's disease (AD) has gradually become a common disease in elderly populations. The aim of this study was to analyse trends of mortality caused by AD in the 28 member countries in the European Union (EU) over the last two decades. We extracted data for AD deaths for the period 1994-2013 in the EU from the Eurostat and World Health Organization database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 were computed. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse the trends and compute the annual percent change in the EU as a whole and by country. Analyses by gender and by European regions were conducted. Mortality from AD has risen in the EU throughout the study period. Most of the countries showed upward trends, with the sharpest increases in Slovakia, Lithuania and Romania. We recorded statistically significant increases of 4.7% and 6.0% in mortality rates in men and women, respectively, in the whole EU. Several countries showed changing trends during the study period. According to the regional analysis, northern and eastern countries showed the steepest increases, whereas in the latter years mortality has declined in western countries. Our findings provide evidence that AD mortality has increased in the EU, especially in eastern and northern European countries and in the female population. Our results could be a reference for the development of primary prevention policies. © 2017 EAN.

  8. Trends in surface-water quality at selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations, in Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed, Atiq U.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

    2005-01-01

    -treatment processes, and effective regulations. Phosphorus data for most of the study stations could not be analyzed because of the data limitations for trend tests. The only station with a significant negative trend in total phosphorus concentration is the Clinton River at Mount Clemens. However, scatter-plot analyses of phosphorus data indicate decreasing concentrations with time for most of the study stations. Positive trends in concentration of nitrogen compounds were detected at the Kalamazoo River near Saugatuck and Muskegon River near Bridgeton. Positive trends in both fecal coliform and total fecal coliform were detected at the Tahquamenon River near Paradise. Various different point and nonpoint sources could produce such positive trends, but most commonly the increase in concentrations of nitrogen compounds and fecal coliform bacteria are associated with agricultural practices and sewage-plant discharges. The constituent with the most numerous and geographically widespread significant trend is pH. The pH levels increased at six out of nine stations on all the major rivers in Michigan, with no negative trend at any station. The cause of pH increase is difficult to determine, as it could be related to a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural processes occurring simultaneously in the environment. Trends in concentration of major ions, such as calcium, sodium, magnesium, sulfate, fluoride, chloride, and potassium, were detected at eight out of nine stations. A negative trend was detected only in sulfate and fluoride concentrations; a positive trend was detected only in calcium concentration. The major ions with the most widespread significant trends are sodium and chloride; three positive and two negative trends were detected for sodium, and three negative and two positive trends were detected for chloride. The negative trends in chloride concentrations outnumbered the positive trends. This result indicates a slight improvement in surface-water quality because

  9. The influence of death-certificate errors on cancer mortality trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ron, E.; Hoel, D.G.; Carter, R.L.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko.

    1993-06-01

    Over the past few years, several reports have suggested a recent increase in cancer mortality based on death-certificate diagnoses. To explore the effect of death-certificate errors on temporal trends in cancer mortality rates, we analyzed the data from the Atomic Bomb Casualty Commission/Radiation Effects Research Foundation's autopsy program in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This series includes 5886 autopsies conducted between 1961 and 1987. Our analyses were focused on lymphoma, cancer of the breast, neoplasms of the brain, multiple myeloma, and melanoma (172 cases, total) because of concern over reports of their increased mortality. These 172 autopsy cases were referred to as Cancers of Interest. A significant increase in detection rates was observed for these Cancers of Interest primarily due to a large rise in mortality between 1976 and 1987. For the remaining cancers excluding stomach and lung (defined as Other), the pattern was similar to that seen for Cancers of Interest, but the fluctuation over time was not statistically significant. Confirmation rates generally increased with time except for Cancers of Interest. As a measure of bias in mortality rates due to death-certification errors and as a method to quantify under- or overestimation of death-certificate-based mortality rates,an adjustment factor (confirmation rate divided by detection rate) was calculated. The higher the adjustment factor, the greater the need to compensate for underreporting. For Cancers of Interest the adjustment factor decreased dramatically over time, but it did not change significantly for Other cancers. When the adjustment factors for Cancers of Interest and Other were compared, a statistically significant difference was found. For Cancers of Interest, a significant interaction between type of cancer and period was seen. Our findings indicate that considerable care must be shown when interpreting temporal trends in cancer vital statistics. (author)

  10. A Trend Analysis of Computer Literacy Skills of Preservice Teachers During Six Academic Years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Caryl J.

    1998-01-01

    Analyzes trends in computer-literacy skills of preservice teachers during the period 1991/92 to 1996/97. A significant linear pattern of increasing means was found in word processing, spreadsheet, hardware, operating system software, and the mouse. Analysis provides a perspective on how increasing access to computers in high school translates into…

  11. Longitudinal trends in the treatment of abdominal pain in an academic emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cinar, Orhan; Jay, Loni; Fosnocht, David; Carey, Jessica; Rogers, LeGrand; Carey, Adrienne; Horne, Benjamin; Madsen, Troy

    2013-09-01

    Abdominal pain is a top chief complaint of patients presenting to Emergency Departments (ED). Historically, uncertainty surrounded correct management. Evidence has shown adequate analgesia does not obscure the diagnosis, making it the standard of care. We sought to evaluate trends in treatment of abdominal pain in an academic ED during a 10-year period. We prospectively evaluated a convenience sample of patients in an urban academic tertiary care hospital ED from September 2000 through April 2010. Adult patients presenting with a chief complaint of abdominal pain were included in this study. Analgesic administration rates and times, pain scores, and patient satisfaction at discharge were analyzed to evaluate trends by year. There were 2,646 patients presenting with abdominal pain who were enrolled during the study period. Rates of analgesic administration generally increased each year from 39.9% in 2000 to 65.5% in 2010 (p value for trend trend of increase in analgesic administration. In patients presenting to the ED with abdominal pain, analgesia administration increased and time to medication decreased during the 10-year period. Despite overall improvements in satisfaction, significant numbers of patients presenting with abdominal pain still reported moderate to severe pain at discharge. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

    2013-01-01

    Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

  13. Precipitation trends over the Korean peninsula: typhoon-induced changes and a typology for characterizing climate-related risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jong-Suk; Jain, Shaleen

    2011-01-01

    Typhoons originating in the west Pacific are major contributors to climate-related risk over the Korean peninsula. The current perspective regarding improved characterization of climatic risk and the projected increases in the intensity, frequency, duration, and power dissipation of typhoons during the 21st century in the western North Pacific region motivated a reappraisal of historical trends in precipitation. In this study, trends in the magnitude and frequency of seasonal precipitation in the five major river basins in Korea are analyzed on the basis of a separation analysis, with recognition of moisture sources (typhoon and non-typhoon). Over the 1966-2007 period, typhoons accounted for 21-26% of seasonal precipitation, with the largest values in the Nakdong River Basin. Typhoon-related precipitation events have increased significantly over portions of Han, Nakdong, and Geum River Basins. Alongside broad patterns toward increases in the magnitude and frequency of precipitation, distinct patterns of trends in the upper and lower quartiles (corresponding to changes in extreme events) are evident. A trend typology-spatially resolved characterization of the combination of shifts in the upper and lower tails of the precipitation distribution-shows that a number of sub-basins have undergone significant changes in one or both of the tails of the precipitation distribution. This broader characterization of trends illuminates the relative role of causal climatic factors and an identification of 'hot spots' likely to experience high exposure to typhoon-related climatic extremes in the future.

  14. Sea surface temperature trends in the coastal ocean

    OpenAIRE

    Amos, C.L.; Al-Rashidi, Thamer B.; Rakha, Karim; El-Gamily, Hamdy; Nicholls, R.J.

    2013-01-01

    Sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the coastal zone are shown to be increasing at rates that exceed the global trends by up to an order of magnitude. This paper compiles some of the evidence of the trends published in the literature. The evidence suggests that urbanization in the coastal hinterland is having a direct effect on SST through increased temperatures of river and lake waters, as well as through heated run-off and thermal effluent discharges from coastal infrastructure. These l...

  15. On interrelations of recurrences and connectivity trends between stock indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, B.; Ambika, G.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

    2012-09-01

    Financial data has been extensively studied for correlations using Pearson's cross-correlation coefficient ρ as the point of departure. We employ an estimator based on recurrence plots - the correlation of probability of recurrence (CPR) - to analyze connections between nine stock indices spread worldwide. We suggest a slight modification of the CPR approach in order to get more robust results. We examine trends in CPR for an approximately 19-month window moved along the time series and compare them to trends in ρ. Binning CPR into three levels of connectedness (strong, moderate, and weak), we extract the trends in number of connections in each bin over time. We also look at the behavior of CPR during the dot-com bubble by shifting the time series to align their peaks. CPR mainly uncovers that the markets move in and out of periods of strong connectivity erratically, instead of moving monotonically towards increasing global connectivity. This is in contrast to ρ, which gives a picture of ever-increasing correlation. CPR also exhibits that time-shifted markets have high connectivity around the dot-com bubble of 2000. We use significance tests using twin surrogates to interpret all the measures estimated in the study.

  16. Examining trends in prediabetes and its relationship with the metabolic syndrome in US adolescents, 1999-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Arthur M; Fermin, Cyrelle R; Filipp, Stephanie L; Gurka, Matthew J; DeBoer, Mark D

    2017-04-01

    We sought to investigate temporal trends in prediabetes prevalence among US adolescents using two definitions and evaluate relationships with obesity and a MetS-severity score. We evaluated data from 5418 non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Hispanic adolescents aged 12-19 participating in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2014 with complete data regarding MetS and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c). Prediabetes status was defined by American Diabetes Association (ADA) criteria: fasting glucose 100-125 mg/dL or HbA1c 5.7%-6.4%. MetS severity was assessed with a MetS-severity Z-score. Prevalence of prediabetes as defined by HbA1c abnormalities significantly increased from 1999-2014, while prevalence of prediabetes as defined by fasting glucose abnormalities showed no significant temporal trend. There were variations in these trends across different racial/ethnic groups. MetS Z-score was overall more strongly correlated with HbA1c, fasting insulin, and the homeostasis model of insulin resistance than was BMI Z-score. These correlations were true in each racial/ethnic group with the exception that in non-Hispanic white adolescents, in whom the MetS Z-score was not significantly correlated with HbA1c measurements. We found conflicting findings of temporal trends of US adolescent prediabetes prevalence based on the ADA's prediabetes criteria. The increasing prevalence of prediabetes by HbA1c assessment is concerning and raises the urgency for increased awareness and appropriate measures of prediabetes status among physicians and patients.

  17. Trends in hospital admissions and surgical procedures for degenerative lumbar spine disease in England: a 15-year time-series study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivasubramaniam, Vinothan; Patel, Hitesh C; Ozdemir, Baris A; Papadopoulos, Marios C

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Low back pain (LBP), from degenerative lumbar spine disease, represents a significant burden on healthcare resources. Studies worldwide report trends attributable to their country's specific demographics and healthcare system. Considering England's specific medico-socioeconomic conditions, we investigate recent trends in hospital admissions and procedures for LBP, and discuss the implications for the allocation of healthcare resources. Design Retrospective cohort study using Hospital Episode Statistics data relating to degenerative lumbar spine disease in England, between 1999 and 2013. Regression models were used to analyse trends. Outcome measures Trends in the number of admissions and procedures for LBP, mean patient age, gender and length of stay. Results Hospital admissions and procedures have increased significantly over the study period, from 127.09 to 216.16 and from 24.5 to 48.83 per 100 000, respectively, (pdisease, and highlight the need for services capable of dealing with the increased comorbidity burden associated with an ageing patient group. PMID:26671956

  18. PATMOS-x Cloud Climate Record Trend Sensitivity to Reanalysis Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. Foster

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Continuous satellite-derived cloud records now extend over three decades, and are increasingly used for climate applications. Certain applications, such as trend detection, require a clear understanding of uncertainty as it relates to establishing statistical significance. The use of reanalysis products as sources of ancillary data could be construed as one such source of uncertainty, as there has been discussion regarding the suitability of reanalysis products for trend detection. Here we use three reanalysis products: Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR, Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA and European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF ERA-Interim (ERA-I as sources of ancillary data for the Pathfinder Atmospheres Extended/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (PATMOS-x/AVHRR Satellite Cloud Climate Data Record (CDR, and perform inter-comparisons to determine how sensitive the climatology is to choice of ancillary data source. We find differences among reanalysis fields required for PATMOS-x processing, which translate to small but not insignificant differences in retrievals of cloud fraction, cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The retrieval variability due to choice of reanalysis product is on the order of one third the size of the retrieval uncertainty, making it a potentially significant factor in trend detection. Cloud fraction trends were impacted the most by choice of reanalysis while cloud optical depth trends were impacted the least. Metrics used to determine the skill of the reanalysis products for use as ancillary data found no clear best choice for use in PATMOS-x. We conclude use of reanalysis products as ancillary data in the PATMOS-x/AVHRR Cloud CDR do not preclude its use for trend detection, but for that application uncertainty in reanalysis fields should be better represented in the PATMOS-x retrieval uncertainty.

  19. Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature, and salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa L.; Lisle, John T.

    2018-01-01

    Increasing global CO2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10−4 pH units year−1, and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10−4 pH units year−1. The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

  20. Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature and salinity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Lisa L.; Lisle, John T.

    2018-01-01

    Increasing global CO2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10−4 pH units year−1, and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10−4 pH units year−1. The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

  1. Trends and variability in the hydrological regime of the Mackenzie River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul Aziz, Omar I.; Burn, Donald H.

    2006-03-01

    Trends and variability in the hydrological regime were analyzed for the Mackenzie River Basin in northern Canada. The procedure utilized the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to detect trends, the Trend Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) approach for correcting time-series data for autocorrelation and a bootstrap resampling method to account for the cross-correlation structure of the data. A total of 19 hydrological and six meteorological variables were selected for the study. Analysis was conducted on hydrological data from a network of 54 hydrometric stations and meteorological data from a network of 10 stations. The results indicated that several hydrological variables exhibit a greater number of significant trends than are expected to occur by chance. Noteworthy were strong increasing trends over the winter month flows of December to April as well as in the annual minimum flow and weak decreasing trends in the early summer and late fall flows as well as in the annual mean flow. An earlier onset of the spring freshet is noted over the basin. The results are expected to assist water resources managers and policy makers in making better planning decisions in the Mackenzie River Basin.

  2. Trends in depression prevalence in the USA from 2005 to 2015: widening disparities in vulnerable groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, A H; Gbedemah, M; Martinez, A M; Nash, D; Galea, S; Goodwin, R D

    2018-06-01

    Major depression is associated with significant disability, morbidity, and mortality. The current study estimated trends in the prevalence of major depression in the US population from 2005 to 2015 overall and by demographic subgroups. Data were drawn from the National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), an annual cross-sectional study of US persons ages 12 and over (total analytic sample N = 607 520). Past-year depression prevalence was examined annually among respondents from 2005 to 2015. Time trends in depression prevalence stratified by survey year were tested using logistic regression. Data were re-analyzed stratified by age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, and education. Depression prevalence increased significantly in the USA from 2005 to 2015, before and after controlling for demographics. Increases in depression were significant for the youngest and oldest age groups, men, and women, Non-Hispanic White persons, the lowest income group, and the highest education and income groups. A significant year × demographic interaction was found for age. The rate of increase in depression was significantly more rapid among youth relative to all older age groups. The prevalence of depression increased significantly in the USA from 2005 to 2015. The rate of increase in depression among youth was significantly more rapid relative to older groups. Further research into understanding the macro level, micro level, and individual factors that are contributing to the increase in depression, including factors specific to demographic subgroups, would help to direct public health prevention and intervention efforts.

  3. Trends in stream nitrogen concentrations for forested reference catchments across the USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argerich, A; Greathouse, E; Johnson, S L; Sebestyen, S D; Rhoades, C C; Knoepp, J D; Adams, M B; Likens, G E; Campbell, J L; McDowell, W H; Scatena, F N; Ice, G G

    2013-01-01

    To examine whether stream nitrogen concentrations in forested reference catchments have changed over time and if patterns were consistent across the USA, we synthesized up to 44 yr of data collected from 22 catchments at seven USDA Forest Service Experimental Forests. Trends in stream nitrogen presented high spatial variability both among catchments at a site and among sites across the USA. We found both increasing and decreasing trends in monthly flow-weighted stream nitrate and ammonium concentrations. At a subset of the catchments, we found that the length and period of analysis influenced whether trends were positive, negative or non-significant. Trends also differed among neighboring catchments within several Experimental Forests, suggesting the importance of catchment-specific factors in determining nutrient exports. Over the longest time periods, trends were more consistent among catchments within sites, although there are fewer long-term records for analysis. These findings highlight the critical value of long-term, uninterrupted stream chemistry monitoring at a network of sites across the USA to elucidate patterns of change in nutrient concentrations at minimally disturbed forested sites. (letter)

  4. Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

    2017-12-01

    Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

  5. Climate change trends, grape production, and potential alcohol concentration in wine from the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teslić, Nemanja; Zinzani, Giordano; Parpinello, Giuseppina P.; Versari, Andrea

    2018-01-01

    The trend of climate change and its effect on grape production and wine composition was evaluated using a real case study of seven wineries located in the "Romagna Sangiovese" appellation area (northern Italy), one of the most important wine producing region of Italy. This preliminary study focused on three key aspects: (i) Assessment of climate change trends by calculating bioclimatic indices over the last 61 years (from 1953 to 2013) in the Romagna Sangiovese area: significant increasing trends were found for the maximum, mean, and minimum daily temperatures, while a decreasing trend was found for precipitation during the growing season period (April-October). Mean growing season temperature was 18.49 °C, considered as warm days in the Romagna Sangiovese area and optimal for vegetative growth of Sangiovese, while nights during the ripening months were cold (13.66 °C). The rise of temperature shifted studied area from the temperate/warm temperate to the warm temperate-/warm grape-growing region (according to the Huglin classification). (ii) Relation between the potential alcohol content from seven wineries and the climate change from 2001 to 2012: dry spell index (DSI) and Huglin index (HI) suggested a large contribution to increasing level of potential alcohol in Sangiovese wines, whereas DSI showed higher correlation with potential alcohol respect to the HI. (iii) Relation between grape production and the climate change from 1982 to 2012: a significant increasing trend was found with little effect of the climate change trends estimated with used bioclimatic indices. Practical implication at viticultural and oenological levels is discussed.

  6. Recent trends in rainfall and temperature over North West India during 1871-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Rani; Mathur, Prasoon

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall and temperature are the most important environmental factors influencing crop growth, development, and yield. The northwestern (NW) part of India is one of the main regions of food grain production of the country. It comprises of six meteorological subdivisions (Haryana, Punjab, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu). In this study, attempts were made to study variability and trends in rainfall and temperature during 30-year climate normal periods (CN) and 10-year decadal excess or deficit rainfall frequency during the historical period from 1871 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rank correlation (Spearman's rho) tests were used to determine significance of trends. Least square linear fitting method was adopted to find out the slopes of the trend lines. The long-term mean annual rainfall over North West India is 587.7 mm (standard deviation of 153.0 mm and coefficient of variation 26.0). There was increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures during post monsoon season in entire study period and current climate normal period (1991-2016) due to which the sowing of rabi season crops may be delayed and there may be germination problem too. There was a non-significant decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season and an increasing trend in rainfall during post monsoon over North West India during entire study period. During current CN5 (1991-2016), all the subdivision (except the Saurashtra region) showed a decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season which is a matter of concern for kharif crops and those rabi crops which are grown as rainfed on conserved soil moisture. The decadal annual and seasonal frequencies of excess and deficit years results revealed that the annual total deficit rainfall years (24) exceeded total excess rainfall years (22) in North West India during the entire study period. While during the current decadal period (2011 to 2016), single year was the excess year and 2 years were

  7. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Bjerregaard

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. Objective: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. Design: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970–2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993–1994 and 2005–2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. Results: Suicide rates were higher among men than women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital, a continued increase to very high rates in remote East and North Greenland and a slow increase in villages relative to towns on the West Coast. Suicidal thoughts followed the regional pattern for completed suicides. Especially for women there was a noticeable increasing trend in the villages. The relative risk for suicide was highest among those who reported suicidal thoughts, but most suicides happened outside this high-risk group. Conclusion: Suicide rates and the prevalence of suicidal thoughts remain high in Greenland but different regional trends point towards an increased marginalization between towns on the central West Coast, villages and East and North Greenland. Different temporal patterns call for different regional strategies of prevention.

  8. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

    2009-10-15

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  9. Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J; Ni, J

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

  10. Observed increase in extreme daily rainfall in the French Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribes, Aurélien; Thao, Soulivanh; Vautard, Robert; Dubuisson, Brigitte; Somot, Samuel; Colin, Jeanne; Planton, Serge; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

    2018-04-01

    We examine long-term trends in the historical record of extreme precipitation events occurring over the French Mediterranean area. Extreme events are considered in terms of their intensity, frequency, extent and precipitated volume. Changes in intensity are analysed via an original statistical approach where the annual maximum rainfall amounts observed at each measurement station are aggregated into a univariate time-series according to their dependence. The mean intensity increase is significant and estimated at + 22% (+ 7 to + 39% at the 90% confidence level) over the 1961-2015 period. Given the observed warming over the considered area, this increase is consistent with a rate of about one to three times that implied by the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Changes in frequency and other spatial features are investigated through a Generalised Linear Model. Changes in frequency for events exceeding high thresholds (about 200 mm in 1 day) are found to be significant, typically near a doubling of the frequency, but with large uncertainties in this change ratio. The area affected by severe events and the water volume precipitated during those events also exhibit significant trends, with an increase by a factor of about 4 for a 200 mm threshold, again with large uncertainties. All diagnoses consistently point toward an intensification of the most extreme events over the last decades. We argue that it is difficult to explain the diagnosed trends without invoking the human influence on climate.

  11. Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-12-01

    The population of Greenland comprises almost 31,000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Partial life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from changes in mortality and disability. Partial life expectancy increased by 2.2 years for men and 0.8 years for women during the entire period. However, expected lifetime in self-rated good health decreased by 3.3 years for men and by 4.6 years for women (pexpectancy without longstanding illness increased by 4.7 years (pExpected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases increased significantly by 4.5 years for men and by 1.9 years for women. The development of expected lifetime without longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women is remarkable, and has reduced the gender gap. The results call for special concern about the women's health in Greenland. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  12. Radiologic imaging in cystic fibrosis: cumulative effective dose and changing trends over 2 decades.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Connell, Oisin J

    2012-06-01

    With the increasing life expectancy for patients with cystic fibrosis (CF), and a known predisposition to certain cancers, cumulative radiation exposure from radiologic imaging is of increasing significance. This study explores the estimated cumulative effective radiation dose over a 17-year period from radiologic procedures and changing trends of imaging modalities over this period.

  13. Cancer in adolescents: Incidences and trends during 1995-2009 in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, Giun-Yi; Chen, Chao-Chun; Horng, Jiun-Lin; Lin, Li-Yih

    2016-03-01

    This study aimed to describe cancer incidence rates and trends specifically for adolescents aged 15-19 years during 1995-2009 in Taiwan. The incidence counts and census data were obtained from the population-based Taiwan Cancer Registry. During the 15-year study period, 4122 adolescents were diagnosed with cancer. The overall incidence rate was 155.2 per million person-years. Other epithelial tumors were the most frequently diagnosed cancer group (23.7%), followed by leukemias (18.0%) and lymphomas (13.9%). When compared to rates in Western countries, a significantly low rate of lymphomas was found. Moreover, rates of the subtypes of melanomas and nasopharyngeal carcinomas being 1/10- and 4-times rates in Western countries were the most striking variations. During 1995-2009, the overall rate of adolescent cancer did not significantly change. However, the most significant upward and declining trends in incidence rates were found for male germ cell neoplasms (annual percent change, APC, 6.4%) and hepatic tumors (APC, -11.1%), respectively. Further investigation and enhancement of the public discourse of possible lifestyle and environmental risk factors associated with increasing trends of certain adolescent cancers should be carried out in Taiwan. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Trends in ischemic heart disease mortality in Korea, 1985-2009: an age-period-cohort analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hye Ah; Park, Hyesook

    2012-09-01

    Economic growth and development of medical technology help to improve the average life expectancy, but the western diet and rapid conversions to poor lifestyles lead an increasing risk of major chronic diseases. Coronary heart disease mortality in Korea has been on the increase, while showing a steady decline in the other industrialized countries. An age-period-cohort analysis can help understand the trends in mortality and predict the near future. We analyzed the time trends of ischemic heart disease mortality, which is on the increase, from 1985 to 2009 using an age-period-cohort model to characterize the effects of ischemic heart disease on changes in the mortality rate over time. All three effects on total ischemic heart disease mortality were statistically significant. Regarding the period effect, the mortality rate was decreased slightly in 2000 to 2004, after it had continuously increased since the late 1980s that trend was similar in both sexes. The expected age effect was noticeable, starting from the mid-60's. In addition, the age effect in women was more remarkable than that in men. Women born from the early 1900s to 1925 observed an increase in ischemic heart mortality. That cohort effect showed significance only in women. The future cohort effect might have a lasting impact on the risk of ischemic heart disease in women with the increasing elderly population, and a national prevention policy is need to establish management of high risk by considering the age-period-cohort effect.

  15. A New Trend of Foreign Direct Investment and Sustainable Growth of Emerging Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pradeep Kumar

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available With the rise of globalisation concept, the opportunity of going global for companies has become so influential that many of the companies that are doing well in the home country are staring up their businesses in other countries to maximise the profit. The trend of investing in other economies has become very popular that's why the trend of foreign direct investment between developed and developing economies has not only been increased but significantly a new trend has emerged for foreign direct investment among developing to developing economies. It has been seen that foreign direct investment (FDI as foreign capital is playing very wider and important role in the socio-economic development of a nation. Evidently, it played an important role to the development of the developed nations, and playing a significant role in the development of the number of developing nations. Today, FDI is considered to be the core incentive for economic and social development as far as the developing nations are concerned.

  16. Overview of hybrid electric vehicle trend

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Haomiao; Yang, Weidong; Chen, Yingshu; Wang, Yun

    2018-04-01

    With the increase of per capita energy consumption, environmental pollution is worsening. Using new alternative sources of energy, reducing the use of conventional fuel-powered engines is imperative. Due to the short period, pure electric vehicles cannot be mass-produced and there are many problems such as imperfect charging facilities. Therefore, the development of hybrid electric vehicles is particularly important in a certain period. In this paper, the classification of hybrid vehicle, research status of hybrid vehicle and future development trends of hybrid vehicles is introduced. It is conducive to the public understanding of hybrid electric vehicles, which has a certain theoretical significance.

  17. Trends in single women with malignancy of the uterine cervix in United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machida, Hiroko; Blake, Erin A; Eckhardt, Sarah E; Takiuchi, Tsuyoshi; Grubbs, Brendan H; Mikami, Mikio; Roman, Lynda D; Matsuo, Koji

    2018-03-01

    To examine trends and characteristics of single women with malignancy of the uterine cervix. This is a retrospective observational study examining the United States population-based tumor registry (the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program). Time-specific trends in single marital status were examined in 3,294,208 women among 12 common female malignancies including 87,151 women with uterine cervical malignancy between 1973 and 2013. While the proportion of single women in the majority of malignancies increased during the study time, the proportion of single women with cervical malignancy significantly increased more than in other malignancies (29.3% in 2013 from 6.3% in 1973). There was a surge in the proportion of single women with cervical malignancy starting in the early 1990s, exhibiting the largest annual percentage rate change (APC) among all examined malignancies (1.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.6, 2.0; pwomen aged single women aged ≥40 years increased significantly during the time (APC, 2.7%; 95% CI=2.3, 3.2; psingle women with malignancy of the uterine cervix has significantly increased in the past 4 decades. This increase was most dramatic in single women aged ≥40 years. Improving screening strategies in single women aged ≥40 years may help reduce the incidence of this malignancy. Copyright © 2018. Asian Society of Gynecologic Oncology, Korean Society of Gynecologic Oncology

  18. Vegetation Activity Trend and Its Relationship with Climate Change in the Three Gorges Area, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guifeng Han

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on SPOT/VGT NDVI time series images from 1999 to 2009 in the Three Gorges Area (TGA, we detected vegetation activity and trends using two methods, the Mann-Kendall and Slope tests. The relationships between vegetation activity trends and annual average temperature and annual total precipitation were analyzed using observational data in seven typical meteorological stations. Vegetation activity presents a distinctive uptrend during the study period, especially in Fengjie, Yunyang, Wushan, Wuxi, and Badong counties located in the midstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir. However, in the Chongqing major area (CMA and its surrounding areas and Fuling, Yichang, and part of Wanzhou, vegetation activity shows a decreasing trend as a result of urban expansion. The NDVI has two fluctuation troughs in 2004 and 2006. The annual mean temperature presents a slight overall upward trend, but the annual total precipitation does not present a significant trend. And they almost have no significant correlations with the NDVI. Therefore, temperature and precipitation are not major influences on vegetation activity change. Instead, increasing vegetation cover benefits from a number of environment protection policies and management, and ecological construction is a major factor resulting in the upward trend. In addition, resettlement schemes mitigate the impact of human activity on vegetation activity.

  19. Evidence of increasing sedentarism in Mexico City during the last decade: Sitting time prevalence, trends, and associations with obesity and diabetes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Medina

    Full Text Available Sedentary behaviors such as sitting time are associated with obesity and diabetes independently of total reported physical activity. This study aimed to describe the current sitting time/day prevalence and trends and to examine the association of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical variables in Mexico City.Two cross-sectional representative surveys in Mexico City were used for this analysis (2006: n = 1148 and 2015: n = 1329. Sedentary behavior questions from the International Physical Activity Questionnaire included time spent sitting on a weekday in the last week or on a Wednesday. Sitting time /day was divided into deciles, and participants in the highest decile (≥ 420 minutes/day were classified within the high sitting category; others were classified in the low sitting time category. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the associations of sitting time with sociodemographic and clinical indicators, controlling for confounders and testing for potential interactions.A total of 13.7% (2006 and 14.8% (2015 adults were classified in the highest sitting time category (≥ 420 minutes/day. There was a significant increase in the average sitting time/day between the surveys (216.0 minutes in 2006 vs. 233.3 minutes in 2015, p < 0.001. In 2015, men, those aged 20-49 years, those in low-intensity jobs, students, and those with a high socioeconomic level were more likely to be in the highest sitting time category. Participants with overweight/obesity (OR = 2.37, 95% CI: 1.11, 5.09 and those with high glucose levels (survey finding (OR = 2.34, 95% CI: 1.04, 5.25 were more likely to report sitting time in the highest category.Sitting time/day prevalence increased 8%, and average daily sitting minutes significantly increased by 8.2% (18 minutes in the nine-year study period (2006-2015. Current public health policies should consider strategies not only for increasing physical activity levels, but also for reducing sitting

  20. Seasonal Variations and Yearly Trend Evaluations of Sedimentation Loads: A Case Study at Chalok River, Terengganu, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aida Soraya Shamsuddin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The aims of this study were to determine the relationship between seasonal variations (wet and dry periods on sedimentation loads and to identify the yearly trend of sedimentation loads at Chalok River, Terengganu, Malaysia from 2003 to 2008. It was found that wet and dry periods influenced the transportation of suspended sediment into the river significantly. The highest suspended sediment loads at Chalok River occurred during the wet period when the intensity of rainfall is high. Besides, the rainfall, water level, stream flow and suspended sediment loads also were analysed using Spearman correlation to identify their relationships. The results showed significant positive relationship between suspended sediment loads with rainfall (r = 0.664, p< 0.05, water level (r = 0.923, p< 0.05 and stream flow (r = 0.919, p< 0.05. Multiple linear regressions revealed 63% of high suspended sediment loads at Chalok River can be explained by rainfall, water level and stream flow. The trends of rainfall, water level, stream flow and suspended sediment loads were analysed by using Mann-Kendall trend test where the results showed that there is a significant increasing trend for suspended sediment loads but no significant increase trend for rainfall, water level and stream flow over the studied periods. It is evident that the evaluations conducted in this study are useful in providing better understanding and reliable conclusion on the basis of seasonal variations and other environmental variables that affect the sedimentations loads in the river. Such effort provides holistic information for effective and wise management policy of river basin management in the future.

  1. Linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices in the arid region of northwestern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huaijun; Pan, Yingping; Chen, Yaning; Ye, Zhengwei

    2017-11-01

    In recent years, climate extreme events have caused increasing direct economic and social losses in the arid region of northwestern China. Based on daily temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2010, this paper discussed the linear trend and abrupt changes of climate indices. The general evolution was obtained by the empirical orthogonal function (EOF), the Mann-Kendall test, and the distribution-free cumulative sum chart (CUSUM) test. The results are as follows: (1) climate showed a warming trend at annual and seasonal scale, with all temperature indices exhibiting statistically significant changes. The warm indices have increased, with 1.37%days/decade of warm days (TX90p), 0.17 °C/decade of warmest days (TXx) and 1.97 days/decade of warm spell duration indicator (WSDI), respectively. The cold indices have decreased, with - 1.89%days/decade, 0.65 °C/decade and - 0.66 days/decade for cold nights (TN10p), coldest nights (TNn) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI), respectively. The precipitation indices have also increased significantly, coupled with the changes of magnitude (max 1-day precipitation amount (RX1day)), frequency (rain day (R0.1)), and duration (consecutive dry days (CDD)). (2) Abrupt changes of the annual regional precipitation indices and the minimum temperature indices were observed around 1986, and that of the maximum temperature indices were observed in 1996. (3) The EOF1 indicated the overall coherent distribution for the whole study area, and its principal component (PC1) was also observed, showing a significant linear trend with an abrupt change, which were in accordance with the regional observation results. EOF2 and EOF3 show contrasts between the southern and northern study areas, and between the eastern and western study areas, respectively, whereas no significant tendency was observed for their PCs. Hence, the climate indices have changed significantly, with linear trends and abrupt changes noted for all climate indices

  2. Increased synthetic drug abuse and trends in HIV and syphilis prevalence among female drug users from 2010-2014 from Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yanming; Guo, Wei; Li, Guiying; He, Shufang; Lu, Hongyan

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to monitor the trend of addiction drug use and its relationship with sexually transmitted infections (STIs) among female drug users (FDUs). Serial cross-sectional surveys were conducted during 2010-2014 among FDUs in Beijing to collect information on addiction drug usage, sexual behaviors, and STI prevalence. Characteristics were analyzed and compared between traditional and synthetic drug users among FDUs by logistic regression method. A total of 3859 FDUs were surveyed during 2010-2014, with the median age being 32.7 years old. The proportion of synthetic drug users among FDUs increased from 43.7% in 2010 to 70.7% in 2014. Compared with traditional drug users, synthetic drug users were younger (P drug FDUs. However, the engagement of commercial sexual activities (P drug users were significantly higher than traditional drug users. Synthetic drug abuse appears to be correlated with commercial sex behavior and higher syphilis prevalence among FDUs. Tailored strategies on health education to curb the prevalence of synthetic drug abuse are urgently needed in Beijing.

  3. A Trend Model for Alzheimer’s Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Örjan Hallberg

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In Sweden, mortality rates from Alzheimer’s disease have increased since early 90’s.  In this study, we compared rates reported from 2006-2012 with projected trends determined previously and found a good fit.  The objective of this study was to investigate if increased mortality can be modeled as a single exponential function of time lived in a new environment, where the risk of dying from Alzheimer’s disease has been increased.  The results demonstrated that the exponential model can be used to predict future mortalities for different scenarios, and that it can also project age-specific trends.  We conclude that increasing mortality rates from Alzheimer’s disease seem caused by an environmental change introduced since the 1990’s.  Since similar trend breaks also have been reported for different cancers, responsible authorities should seriously address this problem to pinpoint causative factors.

  4. Socio-demographic, ecological factors and dengue infection trends in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akter, Rokeya; Naish, Suchithra; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2017-01-01

    Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia. This study has explored the spatio-temporal trends of dengue and potential socio- demographic and ecological determinants in Australia. Data on dengue cases, socio-demographic, climatic and land use types for the period January 1999 to December 2010 were collected from Australian National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences, respectively. Descriptive and linear regression analyses were performed to observe the spatio-temporal trends of dengue, socio-demographic and ecological factors in Australia. A total of 5,853 dengue cases (both local and overseas acquired) were recorded across Australia between January 1999 and December 2010. Most the cases (53.0%) were reported from Queensland, followed by New South Wales (16.5%). Dengue outbreak was highest (54.2%) during 2008-2010. A highest percentage of overseas arrivals (29.9%), households having rainwater tanks (33.9%), Indigenous population (27.2%), separate houses (26.5%), terrace house types (26.9%) and economically advantage people (42.8%) were also observed during 2008-2010. Regression analyses demonstrate that there was an increasing trend of dengue incidence, potential socio-ecological factors such as overseas arrivals, number of households having rainwater tanks, housing types and land use types (e.g. intensive uses and production from dryland agriculture). Spatial variation of socio-demographic factors was also observed in this study. In near future, significant increase of temperature was also projected across Australia. The projected increased temperature as well as increased socio-ecological trend may pose a future threat to the local transmission of dengue in other parts of Australia if Aedes mosquitoes are being established. Therefore, upgraded mosquito and disease surveillance at different ports should

  5. Trends in the chemistry of atmospheric deposition and surface waters in the Lake Maggiore catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Rogora

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The Lake Maggiore catchment is the area of Italy most affected by acid deposition. Trend analysis was performed on long-term (15-30 years series of chemical analyses of atmospheric deposition, four small rivers draining forested catchments and four high mountain lakes. An improvement in the quality of atmospheric deposition was detected, due to decreasing sulphate concentration and increasing pH. Similar trends were also found in high mountain lakes and in small rivers. Atmospheric deposition, however, is still providing a large and steady flux of nitrogen compounds (nitrate and ammonium which is causing increasing nitrogen saturation in forest ecosystems and increasing nitrate levels in rivers. Besides atmospheric deposition, an important factor controlling water acidification and recovery is the weathering of rocks and soils which may be influenced by climate warming. A further factor is the episodic deposition of Saharan calcareous dust which contributes significantly to base cation deposition. Keywords: trend, atmospheric deposition, nitrogen, stream water chemistry.

  6. Temporal trends in reproductive performance in Irish dairy herds and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mee John F

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Irish dairy herd fertility has been declining since the 1980s. The extent, nature and causes of this decline in fertility and the current status of Irish dairy herd fertility were described. An increase in calving interval of approximately one day per year has been recorded. The principal components of this trend have been an increased incidence of postpartum endocrinopathies, reduced expression of oestrus and a fall in conception rate. Both submission rate and calving-to-service interval have increased slightly over time. Significant risk factors associated with these trends have been strain substitution within the Holstein-Friesian breed and single trait selection for milk production. Critically, these changes have been reflected in loss of body condition. Contributory factors included increased herd size and possibly increased use of DIYAI. The most recent Irish study showed that 48% of cows conceived to first service and 14% of cows were not pregnant at the end of the industry-average 15-week spring breeding season. However, the top quartile of herds achieved a first-service conception rate of 59%, illustrating the wide variation between herds. These phenotypic trends were attributed to both genetic and environmental factors and their interactions. Recent Irish dairy herd fertility performance falls short of the targets set for seasonal compact calving.

  7. Vegetation greenness trend (2000 to 2009) and the climate controls in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Ji, Lei; Lei, Liping; Wang, Cuizhen; Yan, Dongmei; Li, Bin; Li, Jing

    2013-01-01

    The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing a distinct warming trend, and climate warming has a direct and quick impact on the alpine grassland ecosystem. We detected the greenness trend of the grasslands in the plateau using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2009. Weather station data were used to explore the climatic drivers for vegetation greenness variations. The results demonstrated that the region-wide averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.036  yr−1. Approximately 20% of the vegetation areas, which were primarily located in the northeastern plateau, exhibited significant NDVI increase trend (p-value plateau. A strong positive relationship between NDVI and precipitation, especially in the northeastern plateau, suggested that precipitation was a favorable factor for the grassland NDVI. Negative correlations between NDVI and temperature, especially in the southern plateau, indicated that higher temperature adversely affected the grassland growth. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to the vegetation growth in cold regions, the grasslands in the central and southwestern plateau showed a decrease in trends influenced by increased temperature coupled with decreased precipitation.

  8. Bayesian approaches for detecting significant deterioration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roed, Willy; Aven, Terje

    2009-01-01

    Risk indicators can provide useful input to risk management processes and are given increased attention in the Norwegian petroleum industry. Examples include indicators expressing the proportion of test failures of safety and barrier systems. Such indicators give valuable information about the performance of the systems and provide a basis for trend evaluations. Early warning of a possible deterioration is essential due to the importance of the systems in focus, but what should be the basis for the warning criterion? This paper presents and discusses several Bayesian approaches for the establishment of a warning criterion to disclose significant deterioration. The Norwegian petroleum industry is the starting point for this paper, but the study is relevant for other application areas as well

  9. Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Precipitation and Temperature Extremes in Rio de Janeiro State (brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, W. L.; Dereczynski, C. P.; Cavalcanti, I. F.

    2013-05-01

    One of the main concerns of contemporary society regarding prevailing climate change is related to possible changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Strong heat and cold waves, droughts, severe floods, and other climatic extremes have been of great interest to researchers because of its huge impact on the environment and population, causing high monetary damages and, in some cases, loss of life. The frequency and intensity of extreme events associated with precipitation and air temperature have been increased in several regions of the planet in recent years. These changes produce serious impacts on human activities such as agriculture, health, urban planning and development and management of water resources. In this paper, we analyze the trends in indices of climatic extremes related to daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures at 22 meteorological stations of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) in Rio de Janeiro State (Brazil) in the last 50 years. The present trends are evaluated using the software RClimdex (Canadian Meteorological Service) and are also subjected to statistical tests. Preliminary results indicate that periods of drought are getting longer in Rio de Janeiro State, except in the North/Northwest area. In "Vale do Paraíba", "Região Serrana" and "Região dos Lagos" the increase of consecutive dry days is statistically significant. However, we also detected an increase in the total annual rainfall all over the State (taxes varying from +2 to +8 mm/year), which are statistically significant at "Região Serrana". Moreover, the intensity of heavy rainfall is also growing in most of Rio de Janeiro, except in "Costa Verde". The trends of heavy rainfall indices show significant increase in the "Metropolitan Region" and in "Região Serrana", factor that increases the vulnerability to natural disasters in these areas. With respect to temperature, it is found that the frequency of hot (cold) days and nights is

  10. Ten-year trends in coronary calcification in individuals without clinical cardiovascular disease in the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diane E Bild

    Full Text Available Coronary heart disease (CHD incidence has declined significantly in the US, as have levels of major coronary risk factors, including LDL-cholesterol, hypertension and smoking, but whether trends in subclinical atherosclerosis mirror these trends is not known.To describe recent secular trends in subclinical atherosclerosis as measured by serial evaluations of coronary artery calcification (CAC prevalence in a population over 10 years, we measured CAC using computed tomography (CT and CHD risk factors in five serial cross-sectional samples of men and women from four race/ethnic groups, aged 55-84 and without clinical cardiovascular disease, who were members of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA cohort from 2000 to 2012. Sample sizes ranged from 1062 to 4837. After adjusting for age, gender, and CT scanner, the prevalence of CAC increased across exams among African Americans, whose prevalence of CAC was 52.4% in 2000-02, 50.4% in 2003-04, 60.0% is 2005-06, 57.4% in 2007-08, and 61.3% in 2010-12 (p for trend <0.001. The trend was strongest among African Americans aged 55-64 [prevalence ratio for 2010-12 vs. 2000-02, 1.59 (95% confidence interval 1.06, 2.39; p = 0.005 for trend across exams]. There were no consistent trends in any other ethnic group. Risk factors generally improved in the cohort, and adjustment for risk factors did not change trends in CAC prevalence.There was a significant secular trend towards increased prevalence of CAC over 10 years among African Americans and no change in three other ethnic groups. Trends did not reflect concurrent general improvement in risk factors. The trend towards a higher prevalence of CAC in African Americans suggests that CHD risk in this population is not improving relative to other groups.

  11. Distant drivers or local signals: where do mercury trends in western Arctic belugas originate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loseto, L L; Stern, G A; Macdonald, R W

    2015-03-15

    Temporal trends of contaminants are monitored in Arctic higher trophic level species to inform us on the fate, transport and risk of contaminants as well as advise on global emissions. However, monitoring mercury (Hg) trends in species such as belugas challenge us, as their tissue concentrations reflect complex interactions among Hg deposition and methylation, whale physiology, dietary exposure and foraging patterns. The Beaufort Sea beluga population showed significant increases in Hg during the 1990 s; since that time an additional 10 years of data have been collected. During this time of data collection, changes in the Arctic have affected many processes that underlie the Hg cycle. Here, we examine Hg in beluga tissues and investigate factors that could contribute to the observed trends after removing the effect of age and size on Hg concentrations and dietary factors. Finally, we examine available indicators of climate variability (Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sea-ice minimum (SIM) concentration) to evaluate their potential to explain beluga Hg trends. Results reveal a decline in Hg concentrations from 2002 to 2012 in the liver of older whales and the muscle of large whales. The temporal increases in Hg in the 1990 s followed by recent declines do not follow trends in Hg emission, and are not easily explained by diet markers highlighting the complexity of feeding, food web dynamics and Hg uptake. Among the regional-scale climate variables the PDO exhibited the most significant relationship with beluga Hg at an eight year lag time. This distant signal points us to consider beluga winter feeding areas. Given that changes in climate will impact ecosystems; it is plausible that these climate variables are important in explaining beluga Hg trends. Such relationships require further investigation of the multiple connections between climate variables and beluga Hg. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Temporal Trends in Exposure to Organophosphate Flame Retardants in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Kate; Butt, Craig M; Webster, Thomas F; Preston, Emma V; Hammel, Stephanie C; Makey, Colleen; Lorenzo, Amelia M; Cooper, Ellen M; Carignan, Courtney; Meeker, John D; Hauser, Russ; Soubry, Adelheid; Murphy, Susan K; Price, Thomas M; Hoyo, Cathrine; Mendelsohn, Emma; Congleton, Johanna; Daniels, Julie L; Stapleton, Heather M

    2017-03-14

    During the past decade, use of organophosphate compounds as flame retardants and plasticizers has increased. Numerous studies investigating biomarkers (i.e., urinary metabolites) demonstrate ubiquitous human exposure and suggest that human exposure may be increasing. To formally assess temporal trends, we combined data from 14 U.S. epidemiologic studies for which our laboratory group previously assessed exposure to two commonly used organophosphate compounds, tris(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (TDCIPP) and triphenyl phosphate (TPHP). Using individual-level data and samples collected between 2002 and 2015, we assessed temporal and seasonal trends in urinary bis(1,3-dichloro-2-propyl) phosphate (BDCIPP) and diphenyl phosphate (DPHP), the metabolites of TDCIPP and TPHP, respectively. Data suggest that BDCIPP concentrations have increased dramatically since 2002. Samples collected in 2014 and 2015 had BDCIPP concentrations that were more than 15 times higher than those collected in 2002 and 2003 (10 β = 16.5; 95% confidence interval from 9.64 to 28.3). Our results also demonstrate significant increases in DPHP levels; however, increases were much smaller than for BDCIPP. Additionally, results suggest that exposure varies seasonally, with significantly higher levels of exposure in summer for both TDCIPP and TPHP. Given these increases, more research is needed to determine whether the levels of exposure experienced by the general population are related to adverse health outcomes.

  13. Observation-based trends in ambient ozone in the Czech Republic over the past two decades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hůnová, Iva; Bäumelt, Vít

    2018-01-01

    We present the trends in ambient ozone concentrations based on high quality data measured continuously at 26 long-term monitoring sites (9 urban, 17 rural including 10 mountain stations) in the Czech Republic in 1994-2015. We considered annual and summer medians, the 10th and 98th percentiles, maximum daily 8-h running mean concentrations and exposure index AOT40F. For all indicators taken into account except for the 10th percentile, our results showed a similar pattern with significant decreasing trends for about one half of the examined sites. We obtained similar results for all types of sites. The most pronounced decrease in O3 concentrations was recorded at mountain sites. Namely, at the Šerlich mountain site, with an overall decrease per year in annual median by 0.43 ppb, summer median by 1.17 ppb, maximal daily 8-h average by 0.45 ppb, the 10th percentile by 0.62 ppb. The peak concentrations indicated by the 98th percentile and AOT40F decreased most at urban site České Budějovice by 0.75 ppb and 0.84 ppb h per year, respectively. For sites exhibiting significant decreasing trends, an overall decrease per year in annual median was 0.22 ppb, in summer median 0.41 ppb, in the 10th percentile 0.23 ppb, in the 98th percentile 0.53 ppb, and in AOT40F 0.51 ppb h. A significant increasing trend was detected only in the 10th percentile at just three sites, with the highest increase of 0.19 ppb per year recorded at the rural site Sněžník. Moreover, a consistent decrease in limit value exceedances was detected, with by far the highest violation recorded in the meteorologically exceptional year of 2003. Out of the 26 sites under review, seven have not recorded a significant decreasing trend in O3 in any of the considered statistics. The lack of trends in O3 at these seven sites is likely associated with changing time patterns in local NO and NO2 emissions: in particular, with the increasing ratio in NO2/NOx. There is an obvious geographical pattern in recorded O3

  14. Trends in the incidence of nonmelanoma skin cancer in Denmark 1978-2007: Rapid incidence increase among young Danish women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birch-Johansen, Fatima; Jensen, Allan; Mortensen, Lone

    2010-01-01

    Nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common cancer among Caucasian populations worldwide, and incidence rates are increasing. However, NMSC data are not routinely collected by cancer registries, but Denmark has extensive registration of NMSC in two nationwide population-based registries. We...... assessed incidence trends of NMSC in Denmark from 1978 to 2007. Data for basal cell carcinoma (BCC) and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) were obtained from the Danish Cancer Registry and the Danish Registry of Pathology. For both genders, age-specific incidence rates and overall incidence rates, age...

  15. Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma

    2017-11-01

    In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

  16. Future trends in commercial and military systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, F. E.

    Commercial and military satellite communication systems are addressed, with a review of current applications and typical communication characteristics of the space and earth segments. Drivers for the development of future commercial systems include: the pervasion of digital techniques and services, growing orbit and frequency congestion, demand for more entertainment, and the large potential market for commercial 'roof-top' service. For military systems, survivability, improved flexibility, and the need for service to small mobile terminals are the principal factors involved. Technical trends include the use of higher frequency bands, multibeam antennas and a significant increase in the application of onboard processing. Military systems will employ a variety of techniques to counter both physical and electronic threats. The use of redundant transmission paths is a particularly effective approach. Successful implementation requires transmission standards to achieve the required interoperability among the pertinent networks. For both the military and commercial sectors, the trend toward larger numbers of terminals and more complex spacecraft is still persisting.

  17. Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001–2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souza, Eliana Amorim; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

    2018-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8–1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9–4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3–6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1–4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females. PMID:29489990

  18. Increasing trend of wearables and multimodal interface for human activity monitoring: A review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Preeti; Mathew, Lini; Syal, Poonam

    2017-04-15

    Activity recognition technology is one of the most important technologies for life-logging and for the care of elderly persons. Elderly people prefer to live in their own houses, within their own locality. If, they are capable to do so, several benefits can follow in terms of society and economy. However, living alone may have high risks. Wearable sensors have been developed to overcome these risks and these sensors are supposed to be ready for medical uses. It can help in monitoring the wellness of elderly persons living alone by unobtrusively monitoring their daily activities. The study aims to review the increasing trends of wearable devices and need of multimodal recognition for continuous or discontinuous monitoring of human activity, biological signals such as Electroencephalogram (EEG), Electrooculogram (EOG), Electromyogram (EMG), Electrocardiogram (ECG) and parameters along with other symptoms. This can provide necessary assistance in times of ominous need, which is crucial for the advancement of disease-diagnosis and treatment. Shared control architecture with multimodal interface can be used for application in more complex environment where more number of commands is to be used to control with better results in terms of controlling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Trends in exotic-atom research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambrecht, R.M.; Horvath, D.

    1983-01-01

    An attempt was made to analyze the trends in the development of exotic-atom research on the basis of a recently compiled bibliography. The analysis of nearly 4000 publications demonstrated that: (1) exotic atoms are nuclear probes used in every field of physics, from the test of quantum electrodynamics (QED) to chemical physics, to materials sciences; (2) the role of nuclear and atomic physics in exotic atom research is decreasing (although it is still significant), while that of materials sciences and chemial physics is exponentially increasing; and (3) prior to 1980 most investigators were mainly interested in atoms with negative muons, while during the last few years the positive muon (μSR) studies have dominated exotic atom research

  20. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Preis, T.

    2011-03-01

    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  1. Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

    2017-03-15

    In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Trends in genetic patent applications: the commercialization of academic intellectual property.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kers, Jannigje G; Van Burg, Elco; Stoop, Tom; Cornel, Martina C

    2014-10-01

    We studied trends in genetic patent applications in order to identify the trends in the commercialization of research findings in genetics. To define genetic patent applications, the European version (ECLA) of the International Patent Classification (IPC) codes was used. Genetic patent applications data from the PATSTAT database from 1990 until 2009 were analyzed for time trends and regional distribution. Overall, the number of patent applications has been growing. In 2009, 152 000 patent applications were submitted under the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) and within the EP (European Patent) system of the European Patent Office (EPO). The number of genetic patent applications increased until a peak was reached in the year 2000, with >8000 applications, after which it declined by almost 50%. Continents show different patterns over time, with the global peak in 2000 mainly explained by the USA and Europe, while Asia shows a stable number of >1000 per year. Nine countries together account for 98.9% of the total number of genetic patent applications. In The Netherlands, 26.7% of the genetic patent applications originate from public research institutions. After the year 2000, the number of genetic patent applications dropped significantly. Academic leadership and policy as well as patent regulations seem to have an important role in the trend differences. The ongoing investment in genetic research in the past decade is not reflected by an increase of patent applications.

  3. [ADHD and conduct disorder: trends in diagnosis and therapy].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petermann, Franz; Lehmkuhl, Gerd

    2012-01-01

    Since 2010 trends outlined in diagnosis and therapy in the German speaking countries in the area of externalizing disorders (ADHD, conduct disorder) are presented. In particular, publications of children and adolescent psychiatry and clinical psychology have been examined. It turns out that in the German-speaking countries, the concern with conduct disorder (including psychopathy) increased compared with the discussion of the significance of ADHD. This development reflects the important therapeutic challenge of conduct disorders.

  4. Unequivocal detection of ozone recovery in the Antarctic Ozone Hole through significant increases in atmospheric layers with minimum ozone

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Laat, Jos; van Weele, Michiel; van der A, Ronald

    2015-04-01

    An important new landmark in present day ozone research is presented through MLS satellite observations of significant ozone increases during the ozone hole season that are attributed unequivocally to declining ozone depleting substances. For many decades the Antarctic ozone hole has been the prime example of both the detrimental effects of human activities on our environment as well as how to construct effective and successful environmental policies. Nowadays atmospheric concentrations of ozone depleting substances are on the decline and first signs of recovery of stratospheric ozone and ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole have been observed. The claimed detection of significant recovery, however, is still subject of debate. In this talk we will discuss first current uncertainties in the assessment of ozone recovery in the Antarctic ozone hole by using multi-variate regression methods, and, secondly present an alternative approach to identify ozone hole recovery unequivocally. Even though multi-variate regression methods help to reduce uncertainties in estimates of ozone recovery, great care has to be taken in their application due to the existence of uncertainties and degrees of freedom in the choice of independent variables. We show that taking all uncertainties into account in the regressions the formal recovery of ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole cannot be established yet, though is likely before the end of the decade (before 2020). Rather than focusing on time and area averages of total ozone columns or ozone profiles, we argue that the time evolution of the probability distribution of vertically resolved ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole contains a better fingerprint for the detection of ozone recovery in the Antarctic ozone hole. The advantages of this method over more tradition methods of trend analyses based on spatio-temporal average ozone are discussed. The 10-year record of MLS satellite measurements of ozone in the Antarctic ozone hole shows a

  5. Home drinking in the UK: trends and causes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, John H; Ferguson, Colin S

    2012-01-01

    To explore the trend in the UK to consume alcohol at home rather than at licensed premises. A Medline search entering the terms 'home drinking', 'alcohol' and 'adult' covering the period 2000-2011 yielded 48 articles, of which 6 met the criteria to be included in the review. Grey literature including survey and market research data were reviewed. In the UK, since 1970 there has been trend for beer to be consumed at home more often than in licensed premises and that the overall trend towards greater home drinking has increased since 2000. The main reasons given are convenience, cost, safety, autonomy and stress relief. There has also been an increase in the practice known as 'pre-loading' (drinking before going out). Adults who drink mainly at home report that they are aware that they run a risk of higher overall alcohol consumption but tend to play down the possibility that increased consumption may lead to longer-term harm. Home drinking trends may have long-term public health consequences. Greater understanding of the drivers of this trend will help policy-makers to respond to these societal changes.

  6. Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim

    2014-08-01

    Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.

  7. Trends and educational differences in non-communicable disease risk factors in Pitkäranta, Russia, from 1992 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasoff, Tiina; Laatikainen, Tiina; Korpelainen, Vesa; Uhanov, Mihail; Pokusajeva, Svetlana; Tossavainen, Kerttu; Vartiainen, Erkki; Puska, Pekka

    2015-02-01

    Mortality and morbidity from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is a major public health problem in Russia. The aim of the study was to examine trends and educational differences from 1992 to 2007 in NCD risk factors in Pitkäranta in the Republic of Karelia, Russia. Four cross-sectional population health surveys were carried out in the Pitkäranta region, Republic of Karelia, Russia, in 1992, 1997, 2002, and 2007. An independent random sample of 1000 persons from the general population aged 25-64 years was studied in each survey round. The total number of respondents in the four surveys was 2672. The surveys included a questionnaire, physical measurements, and blood sampling, and they were carried out following standard protocols. The NCD risk factor trends generally increased in Pitkäranta during the study period with the exception of systolic blood pressure and smoking among men. Especially significant increases were observed in alcohol consumption among both sexes and in smoking among women. Educational differences and differences in trends were relatively small with the exception of a significant increase in smoking in the lowest female educational category. Trends showing an increase in some major NCD risk factors and signs of emerging socio-economic differences call for stronger attention to effective health promotion and preventive policies in Russia. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  8. Trends in Extreme Climate Indices for Pará State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Antonio Costa dos Santos

    Full Text Available Abstract The present study aimed to analyze trends in air temperature and rainfall for 13 locations in the state of Pará using nonparametric tests. Daily data of maximum and minimum air temperatures and precipitation covering the period 1970-2006, collected by the Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (INMET have been used. From the results obtained it was observed that the number of warm days and nights per year has increased, thereby providing a significant reduction in the number of cool days and nights in the state. Due to the high space-time variability of precipitation, few localities showed statistically significant trends for indices of extremes dependent on this variable. The days and nights in Belém have been hotter in the last two decades. Therefore, these results are important for future planning of public health and energy for the state of Para, which must adapt to future warming scenarios sectors.

  9. Employment-based retirement plan participation: geographic differences and trends, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Copeland, Craig

    2011-10-01

    LATEST DATA: This Issue Brief examines the level of participation by workers in public- and private-sector employment-based pension or retirement plans, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS), the most recent data currently available (for year-end 2010). SPONSORSHIP RATE: Among all working-age (21-64) wage and salary employees, 54.2 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsored a retirement plan in 2010. Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64 (those with the strongest connection to the work force), 61.6 percent worked for an employer or union that sponsors a plan. PARTICIPATION LEVEL: Among full-time, full-year wage and salary workers ages 21-64, 54.5 percent participated in a retirement plan. TREND: This is virtually unchanged from 54.4 percent in 2009. Participation trends increased significantly in the late 1990s, and decreased in 2001 and 2002. In 2003 and 2004, the participation trend flattened out. The retirement plan participation level subsequently declined in 2005 and 2006, before a significant increase in 2007. Slight declines occurred in 2008 and 2009, followed by a flattening out of the trend in 2010. AGE: Participation increased with age (61.4 percent for wage and salary workers ages 55-64, compared with 29.2 percent for those ages 21-24). GENDER: Among wage and salary workers ages 21-64, men had a higher participation level than women, but among full-time, full-year workers, women had a higher percentage participating than men (55.5 percent for women, compared with 53.8 percent for men). Female workers' lower probability of participation among wage and salary workers results from their overall lower earnings and lower rates of full-time work in comparison with males. RACE: Hispanic wage and salary workers were significantly less likely than both white and black workers to participate in a retirement plan. The gap between the percentages of black and white plan participants that

  10. Change features and regional distribution of temperature trend and variability joint mode in mainland China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xi; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Feng, Jieling; Wang, Ye

    2018-05-01

    Adaption for temperature should be suitable to local conditions for regional differences in temperature change features. This paper proposed to utilize nine temperature modes that joint the trend (increasing/decreasing/unchanged) with variability (intensifying/weakening/unchanged) to investigate features of temperature change in mainland China. Monthly temperature data over the period 1960-2013 were obtained from 522 national basic and reference meteorological stations. Here, temperature trend (TT) was reflected by the trend of mean annual temperature (MAT) and the uptrend (downtrend) of inter-monthly sliding standard deviation (SSD) series with a sliding length of 29 years (348 months) was used for representing the intensification (weakening) of temperature variability (TV). The Mann-Kendall method and the least squares method were applied to assess the significance and quantify the magnitude of trend in MAT and SSD time series, respectively. The results show that there is a consistent warming trend throughout the country except for only three stations in which a cooling trend is identified. Moreover, the overall increasing rate in the north of 35° N is the highest, over 0.4 °C/decade for most stations. TV is weakened for almost 98% of the stations, indicating the low instability of temperature at a national scale. Finally, temperature mode (TM), for more than 90% of the stations, is the combination of an increasing TT with a weakened TV (mode 8). So, it is more important for people to adapt to the increasing temperature in these regions. Compared to using annual temperature data to calculate SSD, monthly data can accurately reflect the inter-monthly change of temperature and reserve more initial characteristics of temperature.

  11. St. John's wort significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of methotrexate in rats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Shih-Ying [Graduate Institute of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Juang, Shin-Hun [Graduate Institute of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Tsai, Shang-Yuan; Chao, Pei-Dawn Lee [School of Pharmacy, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Hou, Yu-Chi, E-mail: hou5133@gmail.com [School of Pharmacy, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan (China); Department of Medical Research, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan (China)

    2012-08-15

    St. John's wort (SJW, Hypericum perforatum) is one of the popular nutraceuticals for treating depression. Methotrexate (MTX) is an immunosuppressant with narrow therapeutic window. This study investigated the effect of SJW on MTX pharmacokinetics in rats. Rats were orally given MTX alone and coadministered with 300 and 150 mg/kg of SJW, and 25 mg/kg of diclofenac, respectively. Blood was withdrawn at specific time points and serum MTX concentrations were assayed by a specific monoclonal fluorescence polarization immunoassay method. The results showed that 300 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC{sub 0−t} and C{sub max} of MTX by 163% and 60%, respectively, and 150 mg/kg of SJW significantly increased the AUC{sub 0−t} of MTX by 55%. In addition, diclofenac enhanced the C{sub max} of MTX by 110%. The mortality of rats treated with SJW was higher than that of controls. In conclusion, coadministration of SJW significantly increased the systemic exposure and toxicity of MTX. The combined use of MTX with SJW would need to be with caution. -- Highlights: ► St. John's wort significantly increased the AUC{sub 0−t} and C{sub max} of methotrexate. ► Coadministration of St. John's wort increased the exposure and toxicity of methotrexate. ► The combined use of methotrexate with St. John's wort will need to be with caution.

  12. Gender Trends in Radiation Oncology in the United States: A 30-Year Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Awad A. [Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Egleston, Brian [Department of Biostatistics, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Holliday, Emma [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Eastwick, Gary [Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Takita, Cristiane [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida (United States); Jagsi, Reshma, E-mail: rjagsi@med.umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Although considerable research exists regarding the role of women in the medical profession in the United States, little work has described the participation of women in academic radiation oncology. We examined women's participation in authorship of radiation oncology literature, a visible and influential activity that merits specific attention. Methods and Materials: We examined the gender of first and senior US physician-authors of articles published in the Red Journal in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2004, 2010, and 2012. The significance of trends over time was evaluated using logistic regression. Results were compared with female representation in journals of general medicine and other major medical specialties. Findings were also placed in the context of trends in the representation of women among radiation oncology faculty and residents over the past 3 decades, using Association of American Medical Colleges data. Results: The proportion of women among Red Journal first authors increased from 13.4% in 1980 to 29.7% in 2012, and the proportion among senior authors increased from 3.2% to 22.6%. The proportion of women among radiation oncology full-time faculty increased from 11% to 26.7% from 1980 to 2012. The proportion of women among radiation oncology residents increased from 27.1% to 33.3% from 1980 to 2010. Conclusions: Female first and senior authorship in the Red Journal has increased significantly, as has women's participation among full-time faculty, but women remain underrepresented among radiation oncology residents compared with their representation in the medical student body. Understanding such trends is necessary to develop appropriately targeted interventions to improve gender equity in radiation oncology.

  13. GENDER TRENDS IN RADIATION ONCOLOGY IN THE UNITED STATES: A 30 YEAR ANALYSIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Awad A; Egleston, Brian; Holliday, Emma; Eastwick, Gary; Takita, Cristiane; Jagsi, Reshma

    2013-01-01

    Purpose/Objective Although considerable research exists regarding the role of women in the medical profession in the United States, little work has described the participation of women in academic radiation oncology. We examined women’s participation in authorship of radiation oncology literature, a visible and influential activity that merits specific attention. Methods and Materials We examined the gender of first and senior U.S. physician-authors of articles published in the Red Journal in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2004, 2010 and 2012. The significance of trends over time was evaluated using logistic regression. Results were compared to female representation in journals of general medicine and other major medical specialties. Findings were also placed in the context of trends in the representation of women among radiation oncology faculty and residents over the last three decades, using AAMC data. Results The proportion of women among Red Journal first authors increased from 13.4% in 1980 to 29.7% in 2012, and the proportion among senior authors increased from 3.2% to 22.6%. The proportion of women among radiation oncology full-time faculty increased from 11% to 26.7% from 1980 to 2012. The proportion of women among radiation oncology residents increased from 27.1% to 33.3% from 1980 to 2010. Conclusion Female first and senior authorship in the Red Journal has increased significantly, as has women’s participation among full-time faculty, but women remain under-represented among radiation oncology residents as compared to their representation in the medical student body. Understanding such trends is necessary to develop appropriately targeted interventions to improve gender equity in radiation oncology. PMID:24189127

  14. Gender Trends in Radiation Oncology in the United States: A 30-Year Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Awad A. [Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Egleston, Brian [Department of Biostatistics, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Holliday, Emma [Department of Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas (United States); Eastwick, Gary [Temple University School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Takita, Cristiane [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, Florida (United States); Jagsi, Reshma [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Although considerable research exists regarding the role of women in the medical profession in the United States, little work has described the participation of women in academic radiation oncology. We examined women's participation in authorship of radiation oncology literature, a visible and influential activity that merits specific attention. Methods and Materials: We examined the gender of first and senior US physician-authors of articles published in the Red Journal in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2004, 2010, and 2012. The significance of trends over time was evaluated using logistic regression. Results were compared with female representation in journals of general medicine and other major medical specialties. Findings were also placed in the context of trends in the representation of women among radiation oncology faculty and residents over the past 3 decades, using Association of American Medical Colleges data. Results: The proportion of women among Red Journal first authors increased from 13.4% in 1980 to 29.7% in 2012, and the proportion among senior authors increased from 3.2% to 22.6%. The proportion of women among radiation oncology full-time faculty increased from 11% to 26.7% from 1980 to 2012. The proportion of women among radiation oncology residents increased from 27.1% to 33.3% from 1980 to 2010. Conclusions: Female first and senior authorship in the Red Journal has increased significantly, as has women's participation among full-time faculty, but women remain underrepresented among radiation oncology residents compared with their representation in the medical student body. Understanding such trends is necessary to develop appropriately targeted interventions to improve gender equity in radiation oncology.

  15. Gender trends in radiation oncology in the United States: a 30-year analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Awad A; Egleston, Brian; Holliday, Emma; Eastwick, Gary; Takita, Cristiane; Jagsi, Reshma

    2014-01-01

    Although considerable research exists regarding the role of women in the medical profession in the United States, little work has described the participation of women in academic radiation oncology. We examined women's participation in authorship of radiation oncology literature, a visible and influential activity that merits specific attention. We examined the gender of first and senior US physician-authors of articles published in the Red Journal in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2004, 2010, and 2012. The significance of trends over time was evaluated using logistic regression. Results were compared with female representation in journals of general medicine and other major medical specialties. Findings were also placed in the context of trends in the representation of women among radiation oncology faculty and residents over the past 3 decades, using Association of American Medical Colleges data. The proportion of women among Red Journal first authors increased from 13.4% in 1980 to 29.7% in 2012, and the proportion among senior authors increased from 3.2% to 22.6%. The proportion of women among radiation oncology full-time faculty increased from 11% to 26.7% from 1980 to 2012. The proportion of women among radiation oncology residents increased from 27.1% to 33.3% from 1980 to 2010. Female first and senior authorship in the Red Journal has increased significantly, as has women's participation among full-time faculty, but women remain underrepresented among radiation oncology residents compared with their representation in the medical student body. Understanding such trends is necessary to develop appropriately targeted interventions to improve gender equity in radiation oncology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Gender Trends in Radiation Oncology in the United States: A 30-Year Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed, Awad A.; Egleston, Brian; Holliday, Emma; Eastwick, Gary; Takita, Cristiane; Jagsi, Reshma

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Although considerable research exists regarding the role of women in the medical profession in the United States, little work has described the participation of women in academic radiation oncology. We examined women's participation in authorship of radiation oncology literature, a visible and influential activity that merits specific attention. Methods and Materials: We examined the gender of first and senior US physician-authors of articles published in the Red Journal in 1980, 1990, 2000, 2004, 2010, and 2012. The significance of trends over time was evaluated using logistic regression. Results were compared with female representation in journals of general medicine and other major medical specialties. Findings were also placed in the context of trends in the representation of women among radiation oncology faculty and residents over the past 3 decades, using Association of American Medical Colleges data. Results: The proportion of women among Red Journal first authors increased from 13.4% in 1980 to 29.7% in 2012, and the proportion among senior authors increased from 3.2% to 22.6%. The proportion of women among radiation oncology full-time faculty increased from 11% to 26.7% from 1980 to 2012. The proportion of women among radiation oncology residents increased from 27.1% to 33.3% from 1980 to 2010. Conclusions: Female first and senior authorship in the Red Journal has increased significantly, as has women's participation among full-time faculty, but women remain underrepresented among radiation oncology residents compared with their representation in the medical student body. Understanding such trends is necessary to develop appropriately targeted interventions to improve gender equity in radiation oncology

  17. Understanding Evapotranspiration Trends and their Driving Mechanisms: An investigation across CONUS based on numerical modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parr, D.; Wang, G.; Fu, C.

    2015-12-01

    As shown by climate models, increasing global temperatures and enhanced greenhouse gas concentration such as CO2 have had major effects on the dynamics of the hydrologic cycle and the surface energy budget, in particular, on evapotranspiration (ET). ET has significant decadal variations whether it be regionally or globally and variations of ET have major environmental and socioeconomic impacts. A number of recent studies have found a global increase in annual mean ET around 7mm per year per decade from about 1982 to the late 1990s. These results correspond with what is expected from an intensification of the hydrological cycle. However, the increasing ET trend did not continue after 1998 and from 1998-2008 this global trend was replaced with a decreasing trend of similar magnitude. This study uses numerical modeling to investigate if similar changing ET trends emerge in the continental U.S and part of northern Mexico. After validating model simulated evaporative fluxes and comparing spatial patterns to the aforementioned studies, various changing trends of different signs are identified across the U.S., and specific regions with strong signals of change are chosen for further examination with the purpose of identifying the root causes of these changing trends and which variables are most influential towards change. Experimental simulations conducted to isolate the most influential factors towards ET reveal that precipitation amount as well as its characteristics have the greatest impact on the ET trends discovered, with other factors like wind and air temperatures displaying less influence over inter-annual trends. This study helps better understand terrestrial ET and it's interactions which will help facilitate better predictions of change in surface climate such as heatwaves and droughts as well as impacts on water resources.

  18. Post-millennial trends of socioeconomic inequalities in chronic illness among adults in Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoebel, Jens; Kuntz, Benjamin; Moor, Irene; Kroll, Lars Eric; Lampert, Thomas

    2018-03-27

    Time trends in health inequalities have scarcely been studied in Germany as only few national data have been available. In this paper, we explore trends in socioeconomic inequalities in the prevalence of chronic illness using Germany-wide data from four cross-sectional health surveys conducted between 2003 and 2012 (n = 54,197; ages 25-69 years). We thereby expand a prior analysis on post-millennial inequality trends in behavioural risk factors by turning the focus to chronic illness as the outcome measure. The regression-based slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were calculated to estimate the extent of absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in chronic illness, respectively. The results for men revealed a significant increase in the extent of socioeconomic inequalities in chronic illness between 2003 and 2012 on both the absolute and relative scales (SII 2003  = 0.06, SII 2012  = 0.17, p-trend = 0.013; RII 2003  = 1.18, RII 2012  = 1.57, p-trend = 0.013). In women, similar increases in socioeconomic inequalities in chronic illness were found (SII 2003  = 0.05, SII 2012  = 0.14, p-trend = 0.022; RII 2003  = 1.14, RII 2012  = 1.40, p-trend = 0.021). Whereas in men this trend was driven by an increasing prevalence of chronic illness in the low socioeconomic group, the trend in women was predominantly the result of a declining prevalence in the high socioeconomic group.

  19. Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bernhard

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

  20. Italian cancer figures, report 2009: Cancer trend (1998-2005).

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    the aim of this collaborative project of the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (Airtum; www.registri-tumori.it) was to analyse cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy with special reference to the period 1998-2005. the study was based on the Airtum database, which collects and checks data from all the Airtum registries. The present study was based on 20 general and 2 specific populationbased cancer registries. Overall, we analysed 818,017 incident cases and 342,444 cancer deaths for the time period 1998-2005. Seventy percent of the analysed population was from the North of Italy, 17% from the Centre, and 13% from the South. A joinpoint analysis was carried out to detect the point in time where the trend changed; trends are described by means of the estimated annual percent change (APC), with appropriate 95% confidence intervals. Crude and standardized incidence and mortality rates were computed for 36 cancer sites, for both sexes, three age-classes (0-49, 50-69 and 70+ years), and three geographic areas (North, Centre, and South of Italy). Specific chapters are devoted to long-term trends (1986-2005), differences among age-groups, and international comparisons. In 1998-2005, cancer mortality for all sites showed a statistically significant decrease among men (APC - 1.7) and women (- 0.8). Mortality significantly decreased in both sexes for stomach cancer, rectum cancer, liver cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma. Mortality also decreased among men for cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, oesophagus, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, and leukaemia. Among women mortality decreased for cancers of the colon, bone, breast, and uterus not otherwise specified. An increase in mortality was recorded for lung cancer among women (+1.5) and melanoma among men (+2.6). Incidence for all cancers together (except non-melanoma skin cancers) increased among men (APC +0.3) and remained stable among women. Cancer sites which showed increasing incidence were thyroid and melanoma

  1. Requests for body computed tomography: increasing workload, increasing indications and increasing age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toms, A.P.; Cash, C.J.C.; Dixon, A.K.; Linton, S.J.

    2001-01-01

    Increasing numbers of increasingly elderly patients were being examined in our Body CT department. At the same time, some of our clinical colleagues perceived that their patients might be discriminated against on the basis of their age when allocating CT time. We therefore studied the population trends in our department over a 10-year period. The ages of patients attending the Body CT department were collected from the hospital's computer information system from 1995 to 2000 and from handwritten logbooks for the months of September 1988 and 1998. Comparison was made with population trends within the hospital and local demographic data. There has been an average increase of 11% per annum in the number of examinations performed in the Body CT unit. The average age of patients examined increased from 52.7 years in 1988 to 58.9 years in 1998. The largest increase occurred in the over 75-year population (18% rise per annum). Hospital and local demographic population profiles changed little during the same period. We are performing increasing numbers of body CT examinations on increasingly elderly patients. This is probably due to an increased willingness to investigate and treat elderly patients, rather than changes in the local population. There is no evidence of a general discriminatory policy on the basis of age. (orig.)

  2. Trends in breast reconstruction: Implications for the National Health Insurance Service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ki Yong Hong

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Breast reconstruction has become more common as mastectomy has become more frequent. In Korea, the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS began covering breast reconstruction in April 2015. This study aimed to investigate trends in mastectomy and breast reconstruction over the past 10 years and to evaluate the impact of NHIS coverage on breast reconstruction. Methods Nationwide data regarding mastectomy and breast reconstruction were collected from the Korean Breast Cancer Society registry database. Multiple variables were analyzed in the records of patients who underwent breast reconstruction from January 2005 to March 2017 at a single institution. Results At Seoul National University Hospital, the total number of reconstruction cases increased 13-fold from 2005 to 2016. The proportion of immediate breast reconstruction (IBR cases out of all cases of total mastectomy increased from 4% in 2005 to 52.0% in 2016. The proportion of delayed breast reconstruction (DBR cases out of all cases of breast reconstruction and the overall number of DBR cases increased from 8.8% (20 cases in 2012 to 18.3% (76 cases in 2016. After NHIS coverage was initiated, the proportions of IBR and DBR showed statistically significant increases (P<0.05. Among the IBR cases, the percentage of prosthesis-based reconstructions increased significantly (P<0.05, but this trend was not found with DBR. Total mastectomy became significantly more common after the expansion of NHIS coverage (P<0.05. Conclusions Over the last decade, there has been an increase in mastectomy and breast reconstruction, and the pace of increase accelerated after the expansion of NHIS coverage. It is expected that breast reconstruction will be a routine option for patients with breast cancer under the NHIS.

  3. Emerging Trend of Acinetobacter Nosocomial Infection in Northeast of Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samaneh Saed

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: Acinetobacter spp. emerged as an opportunistic pathogen for hospital-acquired infections. Recently, increasing antibiotic resistance among Acinetobacter spp. has worsened the problem. The aim of this study was to investigate  the  emerging  trend  of  infection  due  to Acinetobacter  in Ghaem University Hospital, Mashhad during 2006-2012.Methods: The demographic data and information about redisposing factors was collected. Appropriate bacteriological samples were collected and Acinetobacter spp. was isolated. Antibiotics susceptibility pattern of these isolates againstdifferent antimicrobials agents was determined.Results: Results confirmed that Acinetobacter spp. cause 20.9% of nosocomial infection during this period. The trend of Acinetobacter nosocomial infection was increasing and patients with risk factors such as COPD, bronchectasia, diabetes   mellitus   were   more   prone   to   infection.  There   was   significant association   between   these   infections   and   invasive   procedures   such   as catheterization, mechanical ventilation and broad-spectrum antibiotics usage. Conclusion:  Understanding  trends  in  causative  organisms  of  nosocomial infection can help us to better define our infection control policy.

  4. Trends in hospital admissions for sunburn in Western Australia, 1988 to 2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duke, Janine; Wood, Fiona; Semmens, James; Edgar, Dale W; Rea, Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the trends in hospitalization for sunburn in Western Australia from 1988 to 2008. De-identified linked hospital morbidity data for all index sunburn admissions in Western Australia for the period 1988 to 2008 were analyzed. Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate trends in hospital admissions. Hospitalizations increased from 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0-2.2) per 100 000 person years in 1988 to 2.7 (95% CI = 1.9-3.4) per 100 000 person years in 1997, declining thereafter to 1.5 (95% CI = 1.0-2.0) per 100 000 person years in 2008. Increased hospitalizations rates were estimated for adults 25 to 44 years and 65 years or older, with a significant decline estimated for children younger than 5 years; rates remained stable for all other age groups. This study found no significant overall reduction in sunburn hospitalizations over the 20-year study period. raise concerns about the sun-protective behaviors and skin cancer risk of the population in Western Australia.

  5. Trends in nicotine yield in smoke and its relationship with design characteristics among popular US cigarette brands, 1997-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Gregory N; Alpert, Hillel R; Wayne, Geoffrey Ferris; Koh, Howard

    2007-10-01

    To determine whether nicotine yields in the smoke of cigarettes would show an overall increase over time or an increasing trend limited to any particular market category (eg, full flavour vs light, medium (mild) or ultralight; mentholated vs non-mentholated), manufacturer, or brand family or brand style, and whether nicotine yields in smoke would be associated with measurable trends in cigarette design. Machine-based measures of nicotine yield in smoke and measures of cigarette design features related to nicotine delivery (ventilation, nicotine content in the tobacco rod and number of puffs), as well as market category descriptors, were obtained from annual reports filed with the Massachusetts Department of Public by tobacco manufacturers for 1997-2005. Trends in nicotine yield and its relationship with design features and market parameters were analysed with multilevel mixed-effects regression modelling procedures. A statistically significant trend was confirmed in increased nicotine yield, of 0.019 (1.1%) mg/cig/year over the period 1997-2005 and 0.029 (1.6%) mg/cig/year over the period 1998-2005. The increasing trend was observed in all major market categories (mentholated vs non-mentholated, and full flavour vs light, medium (mild) or ultralight). Nicotine yield in smoke was positively associated with nicotine concentration in the tobacco and number of puffs per cigarette, both of which showed increasing trends during the study period. This study confirms increased machine-measured levels of nicotine, the addictive agent in cigarettes, in smoke, to be a result of increased nicotine in the tobacco rod and other design modifications.

  6. Trend analyses with river sediment rating curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warrick, Jonathan A.

    2015-01-01

    Sediment rating curves, which are fitted relationships between river discharge (Q) and suspended-sediment concentration (C), are commonly used to assess patterns and trends in river water quality. In many of these studies it is assumed that rating curves have a power-law form (i.e., C = aQb, where a and b are fitted parameters). Two fundamental questions about the utility of these techniques are assessed in this paper: (i) How well to the parameters, a and b, characterize trends in the data? (ii) Are trends in rating curves diagnostic of changes to river water or sediment discharge? As noted in previous research, the offset parameter, a, is not an independent variable for most rivers, but rather strongly dependent on b and Q. Here it is shown that a is a poor metric for trends in the vertical offset of a rating curve, and a new parameter, â, as determined by the discharge-normalized power function [C = â (Q/QGM)b], where QGM is the geometric mean of the Q values sampled, provides a better characterization of trends. However, these techniques must be applied carefully, because curvature in the relationship between log(Q) and log(C), which exists for many rivers, can produce false trends in â and b. Also, it is shown that trends in â and b are not uniquely diagnostic of river water or sediment supply conditions. For example, an increase in â can be caused by an increase in sediment supply, a decrease in water supply, or a combination of these conditions. Large changes in water and sediment supplies can occur without any change in the parameters, â and b. Thus, trend analyses using sediment rating curves must include additional assessments of the time-dependent rates and trends of river water, sediment concentrations, and sediment discharge.

  7. Statistical trend analysis methodology for rare failures in changing technical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.; Hoffmann, H.J.

    1983-07-01

    A methodology for a statistical trend analysis (STA) in failure rates is presented. It applies primarily to relatively rare events in changing technologies or components. The formulation is more general and the assumptions are less restrictive than in a previously published version. Relations of the statistical analysis and probabilistic assessment (PRA) are discussed in terms of categorization of decisions for action following particular failure events. The significance of tentatively identified trends is explored. In addition to statistical tests for trend significance, a combination of STA and PRA results quantifying the trend complement is proposed. The STA approach is compared with other concepts for trend characterization. (orig.)

  8. Temporal and spatial trends in sediment contaminants associated with toxicity in California watersheds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siegler, Katie; Phillips, Bryn M.; Anderson, Brian S.; Voorhees, Jennifer P.; Tjeerdema, Ron S.

    2015-01-01

    California's Stream Pollution Trends program (SPoT) assesses long-term water quality trends, using 100 base-of-the-watershed sampling sites. Annual statewide sediment surveys from 2008 to 2012 identified consistent levels of statewide toxicity (19%), using the freshwater amphipod Hyalella azteca. Significant contaminant trends included a decrease in PCBs, stable concentrations of metals and PAHs, and a statewide increase in detections and concentrations of pyrethroid pesticides. The pyrethroid pesticide bifenthrin was detected in 69% of samples (n = 410). Detection of toxicity increased in a subset of samples tested at a more environmentally relevant test temperature (15 °C), and the magnitude of toxicity was much greater, indicating pyrethroid pesticides as a probable cause. Pyrethroid toxicity thresholds (LC50) were exceeded in 83% of samples with high toxicity. Principal components analysis related pyrethroids, metals and total organic carbon to urban land use. - Highlights: • Toxicity and contaminant concentrations were higher in urban dominated watersheds. • Average and range of total pyrethroid concentrations increased between 2008 and 2012. • Pyrethroid toxicity thresholds (LC50) were exceeded in 83% of samples with high toxicity. - Detections and concentrations of current use pesticides are increasing in California urban watersheds, while legacy organochlorine contaminants are decreasing statewide.

  9. Analysis of mortality trends by specific ethnic groups and age groups in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Rose Irnawaty; Siri, Zailan

    2014-07-01

    The number of people surviving until old age has been increasing worldwide. Reduction in fertility and mortality have resulted in increasing survival of populations to later life. This study examines the mortality trends among the three main ethnic groups in Malaysia, namely; the Malays, Chinese and Indians for four important age groups (adolescents, adults, middle age and elderly) for both gender. Since the data on mortality rates in Malaysia is only available in age groups such as 1-5, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and so on, hence some distribution or interpolation method was essential to expand it to the individual ages. In the study, the Heligman and Pollard model will be used to expand the mortality rates from the age groups to the individual ages. It was found that decreasing trend in all age groups and ethnic groups. Female mortality is significantly lower than male mortality, and the difference may be increasing. Also the mortality rates for females are different than that for males in all ethnic groups, and the difference is generally increasing until it reaches its peak at the oldest age category. Due to the decreasing trend of mortality rates, the government needs to plan for health program to support more elderly people in the coming years.

  10. Associations among 25-year trends in diet, cholesterol and BMI from 140,000 observations in men and women in Northern Sweden

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johansson Ingegerd

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the 1970s, men in northern Sweden had among the highest prevalences of cardiovascular diseases (CVD worldwide. An intervention program combining population- and individual-oriented activities was initiated in 1985. Concurrently, collection of information on medical risk factors, lifestyle and anthropometry started. Today, these data make up one of the largest databases in the world on diet intake in a population-based sample, both in terms of sample size and follow-up period. The study examines trends in food and nutrient intake, serum cholesterol and body mass index (BMI from 1986 to 2010 in northern Sweden. Methods Cross-sectional information on self-reported food and nutrient intake and measured body weight, height, and serum cholesterol were compiled for over 140,000 observations. Trends and trend breaks over the 25-year period were evaluated for energy-providing nutrients, foods contributing to fat intake, serum cholesterol and BMI. Results Reported intake of fat exhibited two significant trend breaks in both sexes: a decrease between 1986 and 1992 and an increase from 2002 (women or 2004 (men. A reverse trend was noted for carbohydrates, whereas protein intake remained unchanged during the 25-year period. Significant trend breaks in intake of foods contributing to total fat intake were seen. Reported intake of wine increased sharply for both sexes (more so for women and export beer increased for men. BMI increased continuously for both sexes, whereas serum cholesterol levels decreased during 1986 - 2004, remained unchanged until 2007 and then began to rise. The increase in serum cholesterol coincided with the increase in fat intake, especially with intake of saturated fat and fats for spreading on bread and cooking. Conclusions Men and women in northern Sweden decreased their reported fat intake in the first 7 years (1986–1992 of an intervention program. After 2004 fat intake increased sharply for both genders

  11. Trends in Technology Planning and Funding in Florida K-12 Public Schools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALBERT DIETER RITZHAUPT

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This empirical research investigates trends in technology planning and funding in Florida’s K–12 public schools between the 2003–04 and 2005–06 academic years. Survey items that focused on funding and planning issues on Florida’s statewide school technology integration survey were analyzed using logistic models. Results indicate a significant increase in the number of schools revising their technology plans on a regular basis; a significant increase in the frequency with which Florida’s K–12 public schools are seeking funding for technology-related initiatives; a significant increase in parent, administrator, teacher, and student involvement in the technology planning process; and a significant decline in adequate funding for software and hardware needs. In addition, schools with low proportions of economically disadvantaged students sought and were awarded significantly more funds from donations and federal and state grants. Implications for educational leadership and policy are provided.

  12. A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

    2018-06-01

    Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

  13. Labour force participation in Canada: Trends and shifts

    OpenAIRE

    Irene Ip

    1998-01-01

    A key determinant of the potential growth of an economy is the rate at which the labour force increases, which depends both on population growth and on changes in the participation rate. Cyclical factors related to the economic environment can play a significant role in affecting the participation rate, as can structural factors and demographic trends. From the mid-1970s to the end of the 1980s, the participation rate rose almost without interruption to a record high of 67.5 per cent. In cont...

  14. Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

    2011-02-01

    Latitudinal and interhemispheric differences of model results on trends in mesospheric ice layers and background conditions are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. Water vapor increases at noctilucent cloud (NLC) heights and decreases above due to increased freeze drying caused by temperature trends. There is no tendency for ice clouds in the Northern Hemisphere for extending farther southward with time. Trends of NLC albedo are similar to satellite measurements, but only if a time period longer than observations is considered. Ice cloud trends get smaller if albedo thresholds relevant to satellite instruments are applied, in particular at high polar latitudes. This implies that weak and moderate NLC is favored when background conditions improve for NLC formation, whereas strong NLC benefits less. Trends of ice cloud parameters are generally smaller in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere (NH), consistent with observations. Trends in background conditions have counteracting effects on NLC: temperature trends would suggest stronger ice increase in the SH, and water vapor trends would suggest a weaker increase. Larger trends in NLC brightness or occurrence rates are not necessarily associated with larger (more negative) temperature trends. They can also be caused by larger trends of water vapor caused by larger freeze drying, which in turn can be caused by generally lower temperatures and/or more background water. Trends of NLC brightness and occurrence rates decrease with decreasing latitude in both hemispheres. The latitudinal variation of these trends is primarily determined by induced water vapor trends. Trends in NLC altitudes are generally small. Stratospheric temperature trends vary

  15. Trends in labour immigration to the Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    Alberda, A.P.; Bloemendal, C.; Braams, N.; Fortanier, F.; van Gaalen, R.; Rooijakkers, B.; Smit, R.

    2011-01-01

    The process of internationalisation is not only reflected in increased international trade and investment flows, but also in the increased movement of people across borders, often to take on jobs abroad (labour migration). Between 2000 and 2008, labour immigration to the Netherlands displayed a v-shaped trend, decreasing to a low of 32 thousand in 2004, and rising to 59 thousand in 2008. This trend mirrors the development of Dutch unemployment rates in this period. Many labour immigrants are ...

  16. Tornado frequency in the USA - meteorological and non-meteorological factors of a downward trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mihajlović Jovan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Citing numerical simulations, climate alarmists believe that global warming will lead to more frequent and more intensive tornadoes. Considering temperature increase data in the contiguous USA, this study has investigated the trend of strong tornadoes in F3+ category in the 1954-2012 period. Statistically significant decrease of tornadoes per year at an average rate of 0.44 has been recorded, that is, 4.4 tornadoes per decade. Tornado increase has been recorded with F0 and F1 categories and the cause of this increase lies in meteorological and non-meteorological factors. By using upper and lower standard deviation values, the stages of tornado activity have been singled out. The 1957-1974 period may be considered as an active stage and the 1978-2009 period as an inactive stage. Upward trend of air temperature increase does not correspond with the downward trend of the number of F3+ tornado category, while the correlation coefficient between these two variables is R = −0.14. This fact does not correspond with the simulation results and output data of various numerical models anticipating an increase in the number and intensity of tornado events in the conditions of surface air temperature growth.

  17. Increased serum soluble corin in dyslipidemia: A cross-sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaolei; Chen, Shi; Zhang, Qiu; Liu, Yan; Liu, Lu; Li, Huiling; Peng, Hao

    2015-10-23

    Natriuretic peptides have been associated with dyslipidemia. As a physiological activator of natriuretic peptides, corin might also be associated with dyslipidemia. However, this association has not yet been studied in Chinese populations. Serum soluble corin and blood lipid profiles were determined for 2496 participants aged above 30y. A logistic regression model was applied to evaluate the association between serum soluble corin and dyslipidemia. Serum soluble corin was significantly increased in participants with dyslipidemia in both men (Pdyslipidemia positively increased with increasing levels of serum soluble corin in men (P for trend=0.011) and women (P for trend=0.043). Participants with a high corin level were more likely to have dyslipidemia than those with a low corin level in men (OR, 95% CI: 1.45, 1.07-1.97) and women (OR, 95% CI: 1.33, 1.04-1.70). Serum soluble corin was significantly and positively associated with dyslipidemia. Our findings suggested that serum soluble corin may be a marker or risk factor for dyslipidemia. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. PREFERRED WATERFLOOD MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR THE SPRABERRY TREND AREA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David S. Schechter

    2004-08-31

    The naturally fractured Spraberry Trend Area is one of the largest reservoirs in the domestic U.S. and is the largest reservoir in area extent in the world. Production from Spraberry sands is found over a 2,500 sq. mile area and Spraberry reservoirs can be found in an eight county area in west Texas. Over 150 operators produce 65,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) from the Spraberry Trend Area from more than 9,000 production wells. Recovery is poor, on the order of 7-10% due to the profoundly complicated nature of the reservoir, yet billions of barrels of hydrocarbons remain. We estimate over 15% of remaining reserves in domestic Class III reservoirs are in Spraberry Trend Area reservoirs. This tremendous domestic asset is a prime example of an endangered hydrocarbon resource in need of immediate technological advancements before thousands of wells are permanently abandoned. This report describes the final work of the project, ''Preferred Waterflood Management Practices for the Spraberry Trend Area.'' The objective of this project is to significantly increase field-wide production in the Spraberry Trend in a short time frame through the application of preferred practices for managing and optimizing water injection. Our goal is to dispel negative attitudes and lack of confidence in water injection and to document the methodology and results for public dissemination to motivate waterflood expansion in the Spraberry Trend. This objective has been accomplished through research in three areas: (1) detail historical review and extensive reservoir characterization, (2) production data management, and (3) field demonstration. This provides results of the final year of the three-year project for each of the three areas.

  19. Urine sodium excretion increased slightly among U.S. adults between 1988 and 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Christine M; Hughes, Jeffery P; Cogswell, Mary E; Burt, Vicki L; Lacher, David A; Lavoie, Donna J; Rabinowitz, Daniel J; Johnson, Clifford L; Pirkle, James L

    2014-05-01

    Little information is available on temporal trends in sodium intake in the U.S. population using urine sodium excretion as a biomarker. Our aim was to assess 1988-2010 trends in estimated 24-h urine sodium (24hUNa) excretion among U.S. adults (age 20-59 y) participating in the cross-sectional NHANES. We used subsamples from a 1988-1994 convenience sample, a 2003-2006 one-third random sample, and a 2010 one-third random sample to comply with resource constraints. We estimated 24hUNa excretion from measured sodium concentrations in spot urine samples by use of calibration equations (for men and women) derived from the International Cooperative Study on Salt, Other Factors, and Blood Pressure study. Estimated 24hUNa excretion increased over the 20-y period [1988-1994, 2003-2006, and 2010; means ± SEMs (n): 3160 ± 38.4 mg/d (1249), 3290 ± 29.4 mg/d (1235), and 3290 ± 44.4 mg/d (525), respectively; P-trend = 0.022]. We observed significantly higher mean estimated 24hUNa excretion in each survey period (P trends in mean estimated 24hUNa excretion remained significant (P-trend = 0.004). We observed no temporal trends in mean estimated 24hUNa excretion among BMI subgroups, nor after adjusting for BMI. Although several limitations apply to this analysis (the use of a convenience sample in 1988-1994 and using estimated 24hUNa excretion as a biomarker of sodium intake), these first NHANES data suggest that mean estimated 24hUNa excretion increased slightly in U.S. adults over the past 2 decades, and this increase may be explained by a shift in the distribution of BMI.

  20. Tobacco price increases and population interest in smoking cessation in Japan between 2004 and 2016: a Google Trends analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabuchi, Takahiro; Fukui, Keisuke; Gallus, Silvano

    2018-01-31

    Tobacco price increases can generate increased public interest in smoking cessation, but it is not clear how long this interest lasts. Our objective was to evaluate the duration of the impact of cigarette price increase in Japan using Google search data. Monthly or daily aggregated Google search volume for smoking cessation in Japan from 2004 to 2016 was collected in terms of relative search volume (RSV) ranging from 0-100. Using monthly RSV data, we evaluated possible relationships between the RSVs and tobacco control measures in Japan. Time periods within which the impact of search volume significantly increased were identified by cluster detection test, using daily RSV data. A spike in RSV preceding the enforcement of a cigarette price increase revealed an anticipation effect. Between 2004 and 2016 the three highest monthly RSV spikes were observed in July 2006 (RSV=66), when cigarette prices increased by 11%, and in September (RSV=90) and October 2010 (RSV=100), when cigarette prices increased by 37%. Regarding daily RSV, the detected cluster size around the price increase in 2010 (52 days) was longer than that in 2006 (17 days). In 2010, a cluster period of 25 days before the date of the price increase was observed, suggesting an anticipation effect. After the onset of the price increase, a cluster of 27 days was detected. When the cigarette price increased due to consumption tax in April 2014, almost no anticipation effect was observed. The population impact of tobacco price increases on smoking cessation may be assessed using Google Trends data. The cluster indicates that a higher cigarette price increase had a higher and longer-lasting effect on population interest in cessation, but the impact may continue for a relatively short time. To examine the duration of the impact of cigarette price increases on population interest in smoking cessation in Japan, Google search data for smoking cessation was analyzed. Between 2004 and 2016 the three highest spikes of

  1. The Geomagnetic Control Concept of The Ionospheric Long- Term Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikhailov, A. V.

    The geomagnetic control concept has been developed to explain long-term trends of the electron concentration in the F2 and E ionospheric regions. Periods with negative and positive foF2, hmF2 and foE trends correspond to the periods of increasing or decreasing geomagnetic activity with the turning points around the end of 1950s, 1960s, and 1980s where trends change their signs. Strong latitudinal and diurnal variations revealed for the foF2 and hmF2 trends can be explained by neutral composition, temperature and thermospheric wind changes. Particle precipitation is important in the auroral zone. The newly proposed concept proceeds from a natural origin of the F2-layer trends rather than an artificial one related to the greenhouse effect. Using the proposed method a very long-term foF2 and foE trends related with general increase of geomagnetic activity in the 20th century has been revealed for the first time. The firstly revealed relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity is due to nitric oxide variations at the E-region heights. This "natural" relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity breaks down around 1970 on many stations presumably due to chemical polution of the upper atmosphere. The increasing rate of rocket and satellite launchings in the late 1960s is considered as a reason.

  2. Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

    KAUST Repository

    Klingmüller, Klaus

    2016-04-22

    We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. We relate the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface winds to identify regions where these attributes are directly related to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Regarding precipitation and soil moisture, a relatively small area in and surrounding Iraq turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD over these countries. Regarding surface wind speed, the African Red Sea coastal area is relevant for the Saudi Arabian AOD. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trends and interannual variability can be attributed to soil moisture, precipitation and surface winds, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle. Our results confirm the dust driven AOD trends and variability, supported by a decreasing MODIS-derived Ångström exponent and a decreasing AERONET-derived fine mode fraction that accompany the AOD increase over Saudi Arabia. The positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. As a lower soil moisture translates into enhanced dust emissions, it is not needed to assume growing anthropogenic aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions to explain the observations. Instead, our results suggest that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change.

  3. Long-term trends in alcohol policy attitudes in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossow, Ingeborg; Storvoll, Elisabet E

    2014-05-01

    The aim of this study was to describe trends in attitudes to alcohol control policies in Norway over a period of 50 years and to discuss how these trends relate to developments in alcohol policy. Survey data from 17 national population surveys, national statistics and previous publications were applied to describe trends in attitudes to alcohol control polices (access to alcohol and price) and changes in these policies over the period 1962 to 2012. From 1962 to 1999, an increasing proportion of the population reported that regulations on availability of alcohol were too strict and that alcohol prices were too high, whereas in the 2000s this trend was reversed and support for existing control policies increased. Although the pillars of Norwegian alcohol policy--high prices, restricted access and a state monopoly on retail sales-remained, control policies were gradually relaxed throughout the entire period. Relaxation of strict alcohol control policies in Norway in the first four decades were probably, in part, the result of increasingly liberal public opinion. The subsequent reversed trend in opinions with increasing support for control policies may be due to several factors, for example, consumer-oriented changes in the monopoly system, increased availability and affordability, increased awareness of alcohol-related harm and the effectiveness of control policies. Thus, the dynamics of policies and attitudes may well change over time. © 2013 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  4. Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

    2012-01-01

    Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios

  5. Increasing trend of Japanese encephalitis cases in West Bengal, India - a threat to paediatric population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debjani Taraphdar

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To detect the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV as the etiologic agent from the acute encephalitis syndrome (AES cases mainly amongst the children and young adults from vaccinated and non-vaccinated districts of West Bengal. Methods: For the detection of JEV, a total of 828 sera were referred from vaccinated and non vaccinated districts of West Bengal during 2005-2011. Japanese encephalitis (JE positive cases were confirmed by ELISA and RT-PCR method. Results: Out of 828 cases, 245 samples were positive by ELISA method and 46 samples were positive by RT-PCR method. Out of 291 total positive cases, 162 (55.6% were below 20 years of age. Initially in 2005, JE cases were highest amongst the children and young adults (0-20 years. After vaccination, although the JE cases declined gradually in the vaccinated districts, but again from 2010, JE cases from the said age group showed an increasing trend from those districts. JE cases were also reported from other endemic zones of this state, which were still non-vaccinated. Conclusions: In West Bengal, JE cases are still predominated among children and young adults till the year 2011. Mass scale vaccination programme and investigation on the circulating strains are essentially required to find out the reasons of increasing tendency of JE cases in this state.

  6. International variations and trends in renal cell carcinoma incidence and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znaor, Ariana; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Laversanne, Mathieu; Jemal, Ahmedin; Bray, Freddie

    2015-03-01

    Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) incidence rates are higher in developed countries, where up to half of the cases are discovered incidentally. Declining mortality trends have been reported in highly developed countries since the 1990s. To compare and interpret geographic variations and trends in the incidence and mortality of RCC worldwide in the context of controlling the future disease burden. We used data from GLOBOCAN, the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, and the World Health Organisation mortality database to compare incidence and mortality rates in more than 40 countries worldwide. We analysed incidence and mortality trends in the last 10 yr using joinpoint analyses of the age-standardised rates (ASRs). RCC incidence in men varied in ASRs (World standard population) from approximately 1/100,000 in African countries to >15/100,000 in several Northern and Eastern European countries and among US blacks. Similar patterns were observed for women, although incidence rates were commonly half of those for men. Incidence rates are increasing in most countries, most prominently in Latin America. Although recent mortality trends are stable in many countries, significant declines were observed in Western and Northern Europe, the USA, and Australia. Southern European men appear to have the least favourable RCC mortality trends. Although RCC incidence is still increasing in most countries, stabilisation of mortality trends has been achieved in many highly developed countries. There are marked absolute differences and opposing RCC mortality trends in countries categorised as areas of higher versus lower human development, and these gaps appear to be widening. Renal cell cancer is becoming more commonly diagnosed worldwide in both men and women. Mortality is decreasing in the most developed settings, but not in low- and middle-income countries, where access to and the availability of optimal therapies are likely to be limited. Copyright © 2014 European Association of

  7. [Recent demographic trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    A review of demographic trends in Luxembourg in 1982 is presented. A decline in fertility, the first since 1977, is noted, together with an increase in divorce, as well as a negative migration balance for the first time since 1967. Topics covered include natural increase and migration, fertility, marriage and divorce, mortality, adoption, and legislation affecting the family. Special consideration is given to the mortality experience of those who were subjected to compulsory labor during World War II.

  8. Trends of Bacterial Keratitis Culture Isolates in Jerusalem; a 13- Years Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Politis

    Full Text Available To describe the trends in pathogens and antibacterial resistance of corneal culture isolates in infectious keratitis during a period of 13 years at Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center.A Retrospective analysis of bacterial corneal isolates was performed during the months of January 2002 to December 2014 at Hadassah Hebrew University Medical Center. Demographics, microbiological data and antibiotic resistance and sensitivity were collected.A total of 943 corneal isolates were analyzed during a 13 year period. A total of 415 positive bacterial cultures and 37 positive fungal cultures were recovered, representing 48% of the total cultures. The Annual incidence was 34.78 ± 6.54 cases. The most common isolate was coagulase-negative staphylococcus (32%, which had a significant decrease in trend throughout the study period (APC = -8.1, p = 0.002. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA appears to have a decrease trend (APC = -31.2, P = 0.5. There was an increase in the resistance trend of coagulase-negative staphylococci to penicillin (APC = 5.0, P = <0.001. None of the pathogens had developed any resistance to Vancomycin. (P = 0.88.Coagulase negative staphylococci were the predominant bacteria isolated from patients with keratitis. There was no significant change in the annual incidence of cases of bacterial keratitis seen over the past 13 years. Keratitis caused by MRSA appeared to decrease in contrast to the reported literature.

  9. Online distribution channel increases article usage on Mendeley: a randomized controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kudlow, Paul; Cockerill, Matthew; Toccalino, Danielle; Dziadyk, Devin Bissky; Rutledge, Alan; Shachak, Aviv; McIntyre, Roger S; Ravindran, Arun; Eysenbach, Gunther

    2017-01-01

    Prior research shows that article reader counts (i.e. saves) on the online reference manager, Mendeley, correlate to future citations. There are currently no evidenced-based distribution strategies that have been shown to increase article saves on Mendeley. We conducted a 4-week randomized controlled trial to examine how promotion of article links in a novel online cross-publisher distribution channel (TrendMD) affect article saves on Mendeley. Four hundred articles published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research were randomized to either the TrendMD arm ( n  = 200) or the control arm ( n  = 200) of the study. Our primary outcome compares the 4-week mean Mendeley saves of articles randomized to TrendMD versus control. Articles randomized to TrendMD showed a 77% increase in article saves on Mendeley relative to control. The difference in mean Mendeley saves for TrendMD articles versus control was 2.7, 95% CI (2.63, 2.77), and statistically significant ( p  < 0.01). There was a positive correlation between pageviews driven by TrendMD and article saves on Mendeley (Spearman's rho r  = 0.60). This is the first randomized controlled trial to show how an online cross-publisher distribution channel (TrendMD) enhances article saves on Mendeley. While replication and further study are needed, these data suggest that cross-publisher article recommendations via TrendMD may enhance citations of scholarly articles.

  10. Investigating the role of evergreen and deciduous forests in the increasing trend in atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welp, L.; Calle, L.; Graven, H. D.; Poulter, B.

    2017-12-01

    forests on the atmospheric CO2 amplitude. These results demonstrate the potential significance of evergreen/deciduous forest PFTs on the amplitude of atmospheric CO2. In order to better understand the causes of the increasing amplitude trend, we encourage creating time-varying maps of evergreen/deciduous PFTs from remote sensing observations.

  11. Trends in US movie tobacco portrayal since 1950: a historical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Dan

    2010-06-01

    Portrayal of tobacco use in films has been causally linked to youth smoking initiation. However, findings regarding trends in portrayal in US films since 1950 are inconsistent, potentially due to differences in sampling densities, intercoder reliabilities and time periods covered. The present study was designed to overcome these inconsistencies with a common sampling frame and methodology. A half sample of the 30 top-grossing US films per year from 1950 to 2006 (N=855) was coded in 5-min segments for total tobacco-related content and main character tobacco use. Film tobacco trends were identified using linear regression and compared to national per capita cigarette consumption and historically significant tobacco control events. Tobacco content declined considerably since 1950. Total tobacco-related content peaked around 1961, while the decline in portrayal of main character use was already underway in 1950. Cigarette consumption peaked around 1966 with a trend that closely paralleled total tobacco content and that coincided with major tobacco control events. This study, which had high reliability, dense sampling and covered a long time period, indicates that tobacco content has declined in top-ranked US movies since 1950 with a trend in total tobacco content that closely paralleled the drop in per capita cigarette consumption and the increase in significant tobacco control efforts. Despite the inability to draw causal conclusions, tobacco portrayal in films may serve as barometer of societal support for the habit and thus efforts should continue to limit exposure to such content.

  12. Is climate change intensifying the drying-trend in the Caribbean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrera, D. A.; Ault, T.; Fasullo, J.; Carrillo, C. M.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1950, the Caribbean (11ºN-25ºN; 85ºW-60ºW) has seen a significant drying trend characterized by several recent droughts, some of them contemporaneous with El Niño events. Moreover, the most recent drought from 2013 to 2016 was both the most severe and widespread event since at least 1950, and was associated with high temperatures, likely driven in part by climate change. This work examines the role of increased evaporative demand resulting from warmer temperatures on the drying trend observed in the Caribbean since 1950, using observations and model simulations. Large-scale dynamics associated with drought are also analyzed using sea surface temperature, geopotential height, wind, and precipitation anomalies, as well as radiative fluxes anomalies. Furthermore, land surface model soil moisture and high-resolution self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI) datasets are used to quantify drought severity at local scales. The anthropogenic contribution to drought severity is estimated as the difference between the scPDSI calculated using linearly-detrended temperatures, and the scPDSI computed with the observed trend, with unadjusted precipitation, net radiation, and wind speed. Soil moisture anomalies driven by climate change are derived by comparing a large ensemble of forced simulations against a pre-industrial control. The resulting analysis indicates that anthropogenic forcing has intensified the drying trend in the Caribbean by -0.4 scPDSI-units over 60 years, and has increased the dry-land area by 10%. These findings are consistent with observed potential evapotranspiration (PET) anomalies, which are 30% higher than PET-anomalies estimated using detrended temperatures. These results suggest that climate change is already increasing the risk of drought in the Caribbean by enhancing the atmospheric demand of moisture through temperature, and provide insights into the role of climate change in future drought risk in the region.

  13. Persistent collective trend in stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

    2010-12-01

    Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

  14. Increase of ozone concentrations, its temperature sensitivity and the precursor factor in South China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. C. Lee

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Concerns have been raised about the possible connections between the local and regional photochemical problem and global warming. The current study assesses the trend of ozone in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta (PRD in South China and investigates the interannual changes of sensitivity of ozone to air temperature, as well as the trends in regional precursors. Results reveal, at the three monitoring sites from the mid-1990s to 2010, an increase in the mean ozone concentrations from 1.0 to 1.6 µg m−3 per year. The increase occurred in all seasons, with the highest rate in autumn. This is consistent with trends and temperature anomalies in the region. The increase in the sensitivity of ozone to temperature is clearly evident from the correlation between ozone (OMI [Ozone Monitoring Instrument] column amount and surface air temperature (from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder displayed in the correlation maps for the PRD during the prominently high ozone period of July–September. It is observed to have increased from 2005 to 2010, the latter being the hottest year on record globally. To verify this temporal change in sensitivity, the ground-level trends of correlation coefficients/regression slopes are analysed. As expected, results reveal a statistically significant upward trend over a 14-year period (1997–2010. While the correlation revealed in the correlation maps is in agreement with the corresponding OMI ozone maps when juxtaposed, temperature sensitivity of surface ozone also shows an association with ozone concentration, with R=0.5. These characteristics of ozone sensitivity are believed to have adverse implications for the region. As shown by ground measurements and/or satellite analyses, the decrease in nitrogen oxides (NO2 and NOx in Hong Kong is not statistically significant while NO2 of the PRD has only very slightly changed. However, carbon dioxide has remarkably declined in the whole region. While these observations concerning

  15. Cancer incidence rates and trends among children and adolescents in Piedmont, 1967-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaevska, Elena; Manasievska, Milena; Alessi, Daniela; Mosso, Maria Luisa; Magnani, Corrado; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Pastore, Guido; Fagioli, Franca; Merletti, Franco; Maule, Milena

    2017-01-01

    In the past, increases in childhood cancer incidence were reported in Europe and North America. The aim of this study is to show updated patterns of temporal behavior using data of the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont (CCRP), a region with approximately 4.5 million inhabitants in North-West Italy. CCRP has been recording incident cases in children (0-14 years) since 1967 and in adolescents (15-19) since 2000. Time trends were estimated as annual percent change (APC) over the 1976-2011 period for children, and over 2000-2011 for both children and adolescents. CCRP registered 5020 incident cases from 1967 to 2011. Incidence rates were 157 per million person-years for children (1967-2011) and 282 for adolescents (2000-2011). From 1976-2011, increasing trends were observed in children for all neoplasms (APC 1.1, 95%CI: 0.8; 1.5) and for both embryonal and non-embryonal tumors: 1.1%, (0.5; 1.6) and 1.2%, (0.7; 1.6), respectively. Increases were observed in several tumor types, including leukemia, lymphoma, central nervous system tumors and neuroblastoma. In 2000-2011, incidence rates showed mostly non statistically significant variations and large variability. The observation of trends over a long period shows that the incidence of most tumors has increased, and this is only partially explained by diagnostic changes. Large rate variability hampers interpretation of trend patterns in short periods. Given that no satisfying explanation for the increases observed in the past was ever found, efforts must be made to understand and interpret this peculiar and still ununderstood pattern of childhood cancer incidence.

  16. Cancer incidence rates and trends among children and adolescents in Piedmont, 1967-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Isaevska

    Full Text Available In the past, increases in childhood cancer incidence were reported in Europe and North America. The aim of this study is to show updated patterns of temporal behavior using data of the Childhood Cancer Registry of Piedmont (CCRP, a region with approximately 4.5 million inhabitants in North-West Italy. CCRP has been recording incident cases in children (0-14 years since 1967 and in adolescents (15-19 since 2000. Time trends were estimated as annual percent change (APC over the 1976-2011 period for children, and over 2000-2011 for both children and adolescents. CCRP registered 5020 incident cases from 1967 to 2011. Incidence rates were 157 per million person-years for children (1967-2011 and 282 for adolescents (2000-2011. From 1976-2011, increasing trends were observed in children for all neoplasms (APC 1.1, 95%CI: 0.8; 1.5 and for both embryonal and non-embryonal tumors: 1.1%, (0.5; 1.6 and 1.2%, (0.7; 1.6, respectively. Increases were observed in several tumor types, including leukemia, lymphoma, central nervous system tumors and neuroblastoma. In 2000-2011, incidence rates showed mostly non statistically significant variations and large variability. The observation of trends over a long period shows that the incidence of most tumors has increased, and this is only partially explained by diagnostic changes. Large rate variability hampers interpretation of trend patterns in short periods. Given that no satisfying explanation for the increases observed in the past was ever found, efforts must be made to understand and interpret this peculiar and still ununderstood pattern of childhood cancer incidence.

  17. Trends in nutrients and suspended solids at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia, July 1988 through June 1995

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, C.F.; Belval, D.L.; Campbell, J.P.

    1996-01-01

    Water-quality samples were collected at the Fall Line of five tributaries to the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia during a 6- to 7-year period. The water-quality data were used to estimate loads of nutrients and suspended solids from these tributaries to the non-tidal part of Chesapeake Bay Basin and to identify trends in water quality. Knowledge of trends in water quality is required to assess the effectiveness of nutrient manage- ment strategies in the five basins. Multivariate log-linear regression and the seasonal Kendall test were used to estimate flow-adjusted trends in constituent concentration and load. Results of multivariate log-linear regression indicated a greater number of statistically significant trends than the seasonal Kendall test; how-ever, when both methods indicated a significant trend, both agreed on the direction of the trend. Interpre- tation of the trend estimates for this report was based on results of the parametric regression method. No significant trends in total nitrogen concentration were detected at the James River monitoring station from July 1988 through June 1995, though total Kjeldahl nitrogen concen- tration decreased slightly in base-flow samples. Total phosphorus concentration decreased about 29 percent at this station during the sampling period. Most of the decrease can be attributed to reductions in point-source phosphorus loads in 1988 and 1989, especially the phosphate detergent ban of 1988. No significant trends in total suspended solids were observed at the James River monitoring station, and no trends in runoff- derived constituents were interpreted for this river. Significant decreases were detected in concentrations of total nitrogen, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, dissolved nitrite-plus-nitrate nitrogen, and total suspended solids at the Rappahannock River monitoring station between July 1988 and June 1995. A similar downward trend in total phosphorus concentration was significant at the 90-percent confidence level, but not the

  18. Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss-Penzias, Peter S.; Gay, David A.; Brigham, Mark E.; Parsons, Matthew T.; Gustin, Mae S.; ter Shure, Arnout

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in wet deposition and air concentrations in the United States (U.S.) and Canada between 1997 and 2013. Data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and Environment Canada monitoring networks, and other sources. Of the 19 sites with data records from 1997–2013, 53% had significant negative trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, while no sites had significant positive trends, which is in general agreement with earlier studies that considered NADP data up until about 2010. However, for the time period 2007–2013 (71 sites), 17% and 13% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively, and for the time period 2008–2013 (81 sites) 30% and 6% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively. Non-significant positive tendencies were also widespread. Regional trend analyses revealed significant positive trends in Hg concentration in the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and Upper Midwest regions for the recent time periods in addition to significant positive trends in Hg deposition for the continent as a whole. Sulfate concentration trends in wet deposition were negative in all regions, suggesting a lower importance of local Hg sources. The trend in gaseous elemental Hg from short-term datasets merged as one continuous record was broadly consistent with trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, with the early time period (1998–2007) producing a significantly negative trend (− 1.5 ± 0.2% year− 1) and the recent time period (2008–2013) displaying a flat slope (− 0.3 ± 0.1% year− 1, not significant). The observed shift to more positive or less negative trends in Hg wet deposition primarily seen in the Central-Western regions is consistent with the effects of rising Hg emissions from regions outside the U.S. and Canada and the influence of long-range transport in the free troposphere.

  19. Satellite view of seasonal greenness trends and controls in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmah, Sangeeta; Jia, Gensuo; Zhang, Anzhi

    2018-03-01

    South Asia (SA) has been considered one of the most remarkable regions for changing vegetation greenness, accompanying its major expansion of agricultural activities, especially irrigated farming. The influence of the monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness is poorly understood in this area. Herein, we used the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to investigate various spatiotemporal patterns in vegetation activity during summer and winter monsoon (SM and WM) seasons and among irrigated croplands (IC), rainfed croplands (RC), and natural vegetation (NV) areas during 1982–2013. Seasonal NDVI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and land use and cover changes (LUCC) have also been investigated. This study demonstrates that the seasonal dynamics of vegetation could improve the detailed understanding of vegetation productivity over the region. We found distinct greenness trends between two monsoon seasons and among the major land use/cover classes. Winter monsoons contributed greater variability to the overall vegetation dynamics of SA. Major greening occurred due to the increased productivity over irrigated croplands during the winter monsoon season; meanwhile, browning trends were prominent over NV areas during the same season. Maximum temperatures had been increasing tremendously during the WM season; however, the precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LUCC revealed coupled effects on the long term NDVI trends in NV areas, especially in the hilly regions, whereas anthropogenic activities (agricultural advancements) played a pivotal role in the rest of the area. Until now, advanced cultivation techniques have proven to be beneficial for the region in terms of the productivity of croplands. However, the crop productivity is at risk under climate change.

  20. An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lance, Brian K.; Irons, David B.; Kendall, Steven J.; McDonald, Lyman L.

    2001-01-01

    We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilise shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

  1. Offshore Blowouts, Causes and Trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holand, P

    1996-02-01

    The main objective of this doctoral thesis was to establish an improved design basis for offshore installations with respect to blowout risk analyses. The following sub objectives are defined: (1) Establish an offshore blowout database suitable for risk analyses, (2) Compare the blowout risk related to loss of lives with the total offshore risk and risk in other industries, (3) Analyse blowouts with respect to parameters that are important to describe and quantify blowout risk that has been experienced to be able to answer several questions such as under what operations have blowouts occurred, direct causes, frequency of occurrence etc., (4) Analyse blowouts with respect to trends. The research strategy applied includes elements from both survey strategy and case study strategy. The data are systematized in the form of a new database developed from the MARINTEK database. Most blowouts in the analysed period occurred during drilling operations. Shallow gas blowouts were more frequent than deep blowouts and workover blowouts occurred more often than deep development drilling blowouts. Relatively few blowouts occurred during completion, wireline and normal production activities. No significant trend in blowout occurrences as a function of time could be observed, except for completion blowouts that showed a significantly decreasing trend. But there were trends regarding some important parameters for risk analyses, e.g. the ignition probability has decreased and diverter systems have improved. Only 3.5% of the fatalities occurred because of blowouts. 106 refs., 51 figs., 55 tabs.

  2. International trends in alcohol and drug use among vehicle drivers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christophersen, A S; Mørland, J; Stewart, K; Gjerde, H

    2016-01-01

    Trends in the use of alcohol and drugs among motor vehicle drivers in Australia, Brazil, Norway, Spain, and the United States have been reviewed. Laws, regulations, enforcement, and studies on alcohol and drugs in biological samples from motor vehicle drivers in general road traffic and fatal road traffic crashes (RTCs) are discussed. Roadside surveys showed a reduction of drunk driving over time in the studied countries; however, the pattern varied within and between different countries. The reduction of alcohol use may be related to changes in road traffic laws, public information campaigns, and enforcement, including implementation of random breath testing or sobriety checkpoints. For non-alcohol drugs, the trend in general road traffic is an increase in use. However, drugs were not included in older studies; it is therefore impossible to assess the trends over longer time periods. Data from the studied countries, except Brazil, have shown a significant decrease in fatal RTCs per 100,000 inhabitants over the last decades; from 18.6 to 4.9 in Australia, 14.5 to 2.9 in Norway, 11.1 to 3.6 in Spain, and 19.3 to 10.3 in the United States. The number of alcohol-related fatal RTCs also decreased during the same time period. The proportion of fatal RTCs related to non-alcohol drugs increased, particularly for cannabis and stimulants. A general challenge when comparing alcohol and drug findings in biological samples from several countries is connected to differences in study design, particularly the time period for performing roadside surveys, biological matrix types, drugs included in the analytical program, and the cutoff limits used for evaluation of results. For RTC fatalities, the cases included are based on the police requests for legal autopsy or drug testing, which may introduce a significant selection bias. General comparisons between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries as well as a discussion of possible future trends are included

  3. Different trends in extreme and median surface aerosol extinction coefficients over China inferred from quality-controlled visibility data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Li, Chengcai; Zhao, Chunsheng

    2018-03-01

    Although the temporal changes in aerosol properties have been widely investigated, the majority of studies has focused on average conditions without much emphasis on the extremes. However, the latter can be more important in terms of human health and climate change. This study uses a previously validated, quality-controlled visibility dataset to investigate the long-term trends (expressed in terms of relative changes) in extreme surface aerosol extinction coefficient (AEC) over China and compares them with the median trends. Two methods are used to independently evaluate the trends, which arrive at consistent results. The signs of extreme and median trends are generally coherent, whereas their magnitudes show distinct spatial and temporal differences. In the 1980s, an overall positive trend is found throughout China with the extreme trend exceeding the mean trend, except for northwest China and the North China Plain. In the 1990s, AEC over northeast and northwest China started to decline while the rest of the country still exhibited an increase. The extreme trends continued to dominate in the south while they yielded to the mean trend in the north. After the year 2000, the extreme trend became weaker than the mean trend overall in terms of both the magnitude and significance level. The annual trend can be primarily attributed to winter and fall trends. The results suggest that the decadal changes in pollution in China may be governed by different mechanisms. Synoptic conditions that often result in extreme air quality changes might have dominated in the 1980s, whereas emission increase might have been the main factor for the 2000s.

  4. Gender difference and economic gradients in the secular trend of population systolic blood pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ulla; Jensen, Gorm B

    2013-01-01

    are treated without income associated treatment differences. In conclusion: Women in higher income groups have lower SBP than women in low-income groups and the gap between SBP in high-income women and low-income women increased with time. There were no significant differences in SBP-trend associated...

  5. Suicide Trends Among Elementary School-Aged Children in the United States From 1993 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bridge, Jeffrey A; Asti, Lindsey; Horowitz, Lisa M; Greenhouse, Joel B; Fontanella, Cynthia A; Sheftall, Arielle H; Kelleher, Kelly J; Campo, John V

    2015-07-01

    Suicide is a leading cause of death among school-aged children younger than 12 years but little is known about the epidemiology of suicide in this age group. To describe trends in suicide among US children younger than 12 years by sociodemographic group and method of death. Period trend analysis of national mortality data on suicide in children aged 5 to 11 years in the United States from January 1, 1993, to December 31, 2012. Data were analyzed per 5-year periods, between 1993 to 1997 and 2008 to 2012. Number of suicide deaths and crude suicide rates. Period trends in rates of suicide were estimated using negative binomial regression incidence rate ratios (IRRs). The overall suicide rate among children aged 5 to 11 years remained stable between 1993 to 1997 and 2008 to 2012 (from 1.18 to 1.09 per 1 million; IRR = 0.96; 95% CI, 0.90-1.03). However, the suicide rate increased significantly in black children (from 1.36 to 2.54 per 1 million; IRR = 1.27; 95% CI, 1.11-1.45) and decreased in white children (from 1.14 to 0.77 per 1 million; IRR = 0.86; 95% CI, 0.79-0.94). The overall firearm suicide rate (IRR = 0.69; 95% CI, 0.57-0.85) and firearm suicide rate among white boys (IRR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.59-0.88) decreased significantly during the study. The rate of suicide by hanging/suffocation increased significantly in black boys (IRR = 1.35; 95% CI, 1.14-1.61), although the overall change in suicide rates by hanging/suffocation or other suicide methods did not change during the study. The stable overall suicide rate in school-aged children in the United States during 20 years of study obscured a significant increase in suicide incidence in black children and a significant decrease in suicide incidence among white children. Findings highlight a potential racial disparity that warrants attention. Further studies are needed to monitor these emerging trends and identify risk, protective, and precipitating factors relevant to suicide prevention efforts

  6. Trends in mortality and biological stress in a medieval polish urban population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betsinger, Tracy K; DeWitte, Sharon

    2017-12-01

    Urbanization in pre-modern populations may have had a variety of consequences related to population crowding. However, research on the effects of urbanization have provided inconsistent results regarding the biological impact of this transition on human populations. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that urbanization caused an increase in overall biological stress in a medieval (10th-13th centuries AD) Polish population. A human skeletal sample (n=164) was examined for the presence of porotic hyperostosis, cribra orbitalia, linear enamel hypoplasia, periosteal reaction, and specific infectious diseases. Prevalence rates were compared among three temporal samples: initial urbanization, early urbanization, and later urbanization. Results indicate no significant trends for any of the pathological conditions. Cox proportional hazards analyses, however, revealed a significant increase in the risk of death over time, which supports the hypothesis. These results reflect the necessity of using multiple analyses to address bioarchaeological questions. The lack of significant results from skeletal indicators may be due to an earlier urbanization trend in the population. This study illustrates that the association of urbanization with elevated biological stress is complicated and dependent on various factors, including culture and time period. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Trends in extreme daily temperatures and humidex index in the United Arab Emirates over 1948-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, H. W.; Ouarda, T.

    2015-12-01

    This study deals with the analysis of the characteristics of extreme temperature events in the Middle East, using NCEP reanalysis gridded data, for the summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) seasons. Trends in the occurrences of three types of heat spells during 1948-2014 are studied by both Linear Regression (LR) and Mann-Kendall (MK) test. Changes in the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are also investigated. To better understand the effects of heat spells on public health, the Humidex, a combination index of ambient temperature and relative humidity, is also used. Using percentile threshold, temperature (Humidex) Type-A and Type-B heat spells are defined respectively by daily maximum and minimum temperature (Humidex). Type-C heat spells are defined as the joint occurrence of Type-A and Type-B heat spells at the same time. In the Middle East, it is found that no coherent trend in temperature Type-A heat spells is observed. However, the occurrences of temperature Type-B and C heat spells have consistently increased since 1948. For Humidex heat spells, coherently increased activities of all three types of heat spells are observed in the area. During the summer, the magnitude of the positive trends in Humidex heat spells are generally stronger than temperature heat spells. More than half of the locations in the area show significantly negative DTR trends in the summer, but the trends vary according to the region in the winter. Annual mean temperature has increased an average by 0.5°C, but it is mainly associated with the daily minimum temperature which has warmed up by 0.84°C.Daily maximum temperature showed no significant trends. The warming is hence stronger in minimum temperatures than in maximum temperatures resulting in a decrease in DTR by 0.16 °C per decade. This study indicates hence that the UAE has not become hotter, but it has become less cold during 1948 to 2014.

  8. Trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in stream morphology in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 1939-99

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stogner, Sr., Robert W.

    2000-01-01

    The Fountain Creek watershed, located in and along the eastern slope of the Front Range section of the southern Rocky Mountains, drains approximately 930 square miles of parts of Teller, El Paso, and Pueblo Counties in eastern Colorado. Streamflow in the watershed is dominated by spring snowmelt runoff and storm runoff during the summer monsoon season. Flooding during the 1990?s has resulted in increased streambank erosion. Property loss and damage associated with flooding and bank erosion has cost area residents, businesses, utilities, municipalities, and State and Federal agencies millions of dollars. Precipitation (4 stations) and streamflow (6 stations) data, aerial photographs, and channel reconnaissance were used to evaluate trends in precipitation and streamflow and changes in channel morphology. Trends were evaluated for pre-1977, post-1976, and period-of-record time periods. Analysis revealed the lack of trend in total annual and seasonal precipitation during the pre-1977 time period. In general, the analysis also revealed the lack of trend in seasonal precipitation for all except the spring season during the post-1976 time period. Trend analysis revealed a significant upward trend in long-term (period of record) total annual and spring precipitation data, apparently due to a change in total annual precipitation throughout the Fountain Creek watershed. During the pre-1977 time period, precipitation was generally below average; during the post- 1976 time period, total annual precipitation was generally above average. During the post- 1976 time period, an upward trend in total annual and spring precipitation was indicated at two stations. Because two of four stations evaluated had upward trends for the post-1976 period and storms that produce the most precipitation are isolated convection storms, it is plausible that other parts of the watershed had upward precipitation trends that could affect trends in streamflow. Also, because of the isolated nature of

  9. Effects of Exponential Trends on Correlations of Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai-Jing Lin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA is a scaling analysis method used to estimate long-range power-law correlation exponents in time series. In this paper, DFA is employed to discuss the long-range correlations of stock market. The effects of exponential trends on correlations of Hang Seng Index (HSI are investigated with emphasis. We find that the long-range correlations and the positions of the crossovers of lower order DFA appear to have no immunity to the additive exponential trends. Further, our analysis suggests that an increase in the DFA order increases the efficiency of eliminating on exponential trends. In addition, the empirical study shows that the correlations and crossovers are associated with DFA order and magnitude of exponential trends.

  10. Trends driving the hotel industry global evolution. Case of Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Codruţa-Adina BĂLTESCU

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The tourism field is well known for the dynamic of changes over recent years. We witness the continous growth of the number of tourists, the increase of consumers demands, the development of new markets and the changes determined by information technologies implementation and adaptations and innovations supported at the level of tourism business. Being a defining component in the tourism industry, the hotel field is individualized through specific evolutions and significant adjustments in relation to the general rate of changes and development trends recorded. In this framework, through this article, the author aims to assess which are the most relevant changes recorded in the Romanian hotel industry and the degree in which this specific activity field follow the trend of changes recorded at international level.

  11. Trends in surface wind speed and significant wave height as revealed by ERA-Interim wind wave hindcast in the Central Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shanas, P.R.; SanilKumar, V.

    height. The area average analysis is carried out to investigate the sensitivity of the identified trend results for the point location and found similar trends for extreme wind speed and SWH. The high (>5 m) annual maximum SWH in the study area...

  12. Trend analysis of air temperature and precipitation time series over Greece: 1955-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marougianni, G.; Melas, D.; Kioutsioukis, I.; Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Anandranistakis, E.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, a database of air temperature and precipitation time series from the network of Hellenic National Meteorological Service has been developed in the framework of the project GEOCLIMA, co-financed by the European Union and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009. Initially, a quality test was applied to the raw data and then missing observations have been imputed with a regularized, spatial-temporal expectation - maximization algorithm to complete the climatic record. Next, a quantile - matching algorithm was applied in order to verify the homogeneity of the data. The processed time series were used for the calculation of temporal annual and seasonal trends of air temperature and precipitation. Monthly maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation means at all available stations in Greece were analyzed for temporal trends and spatial variation patterns for the longest common time period of homogenous data (1955 - 2010), applying the Mann-Kendall test. The majority of the examined stations showed a significant increase in the summer maximum and minimum temperatures; this could be possibly physically linked to the Etesian winds, because of the less frequent expansion of the low over the southeastern Mediterranean. Summer minimum temperatures have been increasing at a faster rate than that of summer maximum temperatures, reflecting an asymmetric change of extreme temperature distributions. Total annual precipitation has been significantly decreased at the stations located in western Greece, as well as in the southeast, while the remaining areas exhibit a non-significant negative trend. This reduction is very likely linked to the positive phase of the NAO that resulted in an increase in the frequency and persistence of anticyclones over the Mediterranean.

  13. Streamflow characteristics and trends along Soldier Creek, Northeast Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juracek, Kyle E.

    2017-08-16

    Historical data for six selected U.S. Geological Survey streamgages along Soldier Creek in northeast Kansas were used in an assessment of streamflow characteristics and trends. This information is required by the Prairie Band Potawatomi Nation for the effective management of tribal water resources, including drought contingency planning. Streamflow data for the period of record at each streamgage were used to assess annual mean streamflow, annual mean base flow, mean monthly flow, annual peak flow, and annual minimum flow.Annual mean streamflows along Soldier Creek were characterized by substantial year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trends. On average, annual mean base flow accounted for about 20 percent of annual mean streamflow. Mean monthly flows followed a general seasonal pattern that included peak values in spring and low values in winter. Annual peak flows, which were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability, were most likely to occur in May and June and least likely to occur during November through February. With the exception of a weak yet statistically significant increasing trend at the Soldier Creek near Topeka, Kansas, streamgage, there were no pronounced long-term trends in annual peak flows. Annual 1-day, 30-day, and 90-day mean minimum flows were characterized by considerable year-to-year variability with no pronounced long-term trend. During an extreme drought, as was the case in the mid-1950s, there may be zero flow in Soldier Creek continuously for a period of one to several months.

  14. Trends in reproductive health knowledge following a health education intervention among adolescents in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusakaniko, S; Mbizvo, M T; Kasule, J; Gupta, V; Kinoti, S N; Mpanju-Shumbushu, W; Sebina-Zziwa, J; Mwateba, R; Padayachy, J

    1997-01-01

    Unwanted teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections and the attendant morbidity and mortality necessitate the need for understanding factors influencing adolescent sexuality and the implementation of programmes designed to improve their knowledge, reproductive behaviour, sexual and reproductive health. To determine the impact of an intervention package on knowledge levels of various reproductive health issues through trend analysis. Randomized controlled trial of a health education intervention in schools stratified for representativeness. Rural and urban secondary schools in Zimbabwe. 1,689 students recruited from 11 secondary schools in Mashonaland Central. Knowledge level before and after intervention. The demographic characteristics of the pupils at baseline, five months and nine months were comparable between the two groups. There was an overall increase in knowledge on menstruation. Students from the intervention schools were more likely to have correct knowledge over time on aspects of reproductive biology. A significant linear trend (p = 0.017) was observed in the area of family planning and contraception. A linear decreasing trend (p = 0.001) was observed on pregnancy risk. Though not significantly linear, the general trend of knowledge levels in all the areas of reproductive health, pregnancy risk, STDs and HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend, from 20% to 96%. Worth noting was that in all the areas the intervention group had knowledge above that in the control group. The reproductive health education intervention had an impact on aspects of reproductive biology and contraception as measured by the increased scoring at follow up when comparing intervention and control schools. The overall findings point to the need for early school based reproductive health education programmes incooperating correct information on reproductive biology and the prevention of subsequent reproductive morbidity by imparting information on non-risk behaviour during the early

  15. TechTrends 2010-2015: A Content Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stauffer, Eric

    2017-01-01

    This study is a content analysis of articles published within the journal "TechTrends" from 2000 to 2015. The study reveals that the publication "TechTrends" has increased the overall number of peer reviewed original papers over the last 6 years. The author describes the proportion of these original papers per volume and…

  16. TRENDS OF ROMANIAN BANKING NETWORK DEVELOPMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Georgeta PANAIT

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Since 2009, two trends occurred in the banking world: downsizing of personnel, on the one hand and the reduction of retail units held, on the other hand. The first trend was most notable in countries with unstable or weak economy. The effects were seen immediately. Reducing of the operating costs and more applied of the territorial structure and staff was a decision that credit institutions in Romania took relatively late. Worldwide banks began a restructuring otherwise dictated by this time not so economic crises new market trends - increasing access to the internet for the population and use of the internet in a growing proportion of internet banking

  17. Googling trends in conservation biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

    2014-02-01

    Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  18. Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun

    2010-01-01

    Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

  19. Trends in sunburns, sun protection practices, and attitudes toward sun exposure protection and tanning among US adolescents, 1998-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cokkinides, Vilma; Weinstock, Martin; Glanz, Karen; Albano, Jessica; Ward, Elizabeth; Thun, Michael

    2006-09-01

    Sun exposure in childhood is an important risk factor for developing skin cancer as an adult. Despite extensive efforts to reduce sun exposure among the young, there are no population-based data on trends in sunburns and sun protection practices in the young. The aim of this study was to describe nationally representative trend data on sunburns, sun protection, and attitudes related to sun exposure among US youth. Cross-sectional telephone surveys of youth aged 11 to 18 years in 1998 (N = 1196) and in 2004 (N = 1613) were conducted using a 2-stage sampling process to draw population-based samples. The surveys asked identical questions about sun protection, number of sunburns experienced, and attitudes toward sun exposure. Time trends were evaluated using pooled logistic regression analysis. In 2004, 69% of subjects reported having been sunburned during the summer, not significantly less than in 1998 (72%). There was a significant decrease in the percentage of those aged 11 to 15 years who reported sunburns and a nonsignificant increase among the 16- to 18-year-olds. The proportion of youth who reported regular sunscreen use increased significantly from 31% to 39%. Little change occurred in other recommended sun protection practices. A small reduction in sunburn frequency and modest increases in sun protection practices were observed among youth between 1998 and 2004, despite widespread sun protection campaigns. Nevertheless, the decrease in sunburns among younger teens may be cause for optimism regarding future trends. Overall, there was rather limited progress in improving sun protection practices and reducing sunburns among US youth between 1998 and 2004.

  20. Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    2006-01-01

    Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues ...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.......Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...

  1. Future trends and consumer lifestyles with regard to meat consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G.

    Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues ...... in quality perception, shopping fast and easy vs. shopping in specialized outlets, the role of convenience and meat avoidance in cooking, and the role of concerns about the meat production process in purchasing. Indicators for each of these trends are discussed.......Using the food-related lifestyle model as a conceptual framework, one possible trend each is discussed for the following four components of food-related lifestyle: quality aspects, ways of shopping, cooking methods, and purchase motives. These trends refer to the increasing use of extrinsic cues...

  2. Assessing the gap in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology: trends over a 20-year period.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, Kristopher; Ramonas, Milita; Patlas, Michael; Katz, Douglas S

    2017-12-01

    To examine trends in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology from January 1994 to December 2014. We obtained institutional review board approval for our study. We retrospectively reviewed a total of 1617 articles published in the journal Emergency Radiology over a 20-year period. Original articles, case reports, review articles, and pictorial essays were included. The first and last position author's gender was categorized as female or male. We analyzed trends by comparing the first and last position authors of original articles from the first and last year reviewed. We utilized Chi-square test for statistical analysis, with a p value gender of 96% of the authors. Overall, female authors were 21% of first position authors (290 of 1368) and 15% of last position authors (183 of 1246). Thirty-two percent of articles with female last position authors also had female first position authors (58 of 183). There was a statistically significant increase in female last position authors, from 12.9% in 1994 to 21.3% in 2014 (p = 0.026), a non-significant increase in female first position authors, from 17.5% in 1994 to 20.9% in 2014 (p = 0.514), and a non-significant increase in articles with both a first and last female author, from 25% in 1994 to 35% in 2014 (p = 0.593). Over the last 20 years, there has been a statistically significant upward trend in female last position authors publishing in the journal Emergency Radiology.

  3. Observed rainfall trends and precipitation uncertainty in the vicinity of the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zittis, G.

    2017-11-01

    The present study investigates the century-long and more recent rainfall trends over the greater region of Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Five up-to-date gridded observational datasets are employed. Besides mean annual values, trends of six indices of drought and extreme precipitation are also considered in the analysis. Most important findings include the significant negative trends over the Maghreb, Levant, Arabian Peninsula, and Sahel regions that are evident since the beginning of the twentieth century and are more or less extended to today. On the other hand, for some Mediterranean regions such as the Balkans and the Anatolian Plateau, precipitation records during the most recent decades indicate a significant increasing trend and a recovering from the dry conditions that occurred during the mid-1970s and mid-1980s. The fact that over parts of the study region the selected datasets were found to have substantial differences in terms of mean climate, trends, and interannual variability, motivated the more thorough investigation of the precipitation observational uncertainty. Several aspects, such as annual and monthly mean climatologies and also discrepancies in the monthly time-series distribution, are discussed using common methods in the field of climatology but also more sophisticated, nonparametric approaches such as the Kruskal-Wallis and Dunn's tests. Results indicate that in the best case, the data sources are found to have statistically significant differences in the distribution of monthly precipitation for about 50% of the study region extent. This percentage is increased up to 70% when particular datasets are compared. Indicatively, the range between the tested rainfall datasets is found to be more than 20% of their mean annual values for most of the extent of MENA, while locally, for the hyper-arid regions, this percentage is increased up to 100%. Precipitation observational uncertainty is also profound for parts of southern Europe. Outlier

  4. A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sang, Yan-Fang; Sun, Fubao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xie, Ping; Sun, Jian

    2018-01-01

    The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS) approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961-2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale). The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

  5. Is surgical workforce diversity increasing?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriole, Dorothy A; Jeffe, Donna B; Schechtman, Kenneth B

    2007-03-01

    We sought to determine the extent to which recent increases in levels of gender and racial diversity in the overall resident-physician workforce were evident among core-surgical specialty resident workforces. Chi-square tests for trend assessed the importance of changes from 1996 to 2004 in proportions of women and African Americans in the surgery-resident workforce. Surgery-resident trends were compared with overall resident workforce trends using two-tailed t-tests to compare regression slopes that quantified rates of change over time. Chi-square tests assessed differences between proportions of women and African Americans in the current overall board-certified workforce and their proportions in the surgery board-certified workforce. From 1996 to 2004, proportions of women increased in all seven surgical specialties studied. Compared with the overall trend toward increasing proportions of women in the resident workforce, the trend in one surgical specialty was larger (obstetrics/gynecology, p 0.05), and two were smaller (each p 0.05). Proportions of African Americans decreased in three specialties (each p workforce, except obstetrics/gynecology, remained lower than in the overall board-certified workforce (each p workforces have persisted since 1996 and will likely perpetuate ongoing surgery board-certified workforce disparities.

  6. Epidemiology and trends in non-fatal self-harm in three centres in England: 2000-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergen, Helen; Hawton, Keith; Waters, Keith; Cooper, Jayne; Kapur, Navneet

    2010-12-01

    Self-harm is a common reason for presentation to a general hospital, with a strong association with suicide. Trends in self-harm are an important indicator of community psychopathology, with resource implications for health services and relevance to suicide prevention policy. Previous reports in the UK have come largely from single centres. To investigate trends in non-fatal self-harm in six general hospitals in three centres from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England, and to relate these to trends in suicide. Data on self-harm presentations to general hospital emergency departments in Oxford (one), Manchester (three) and Derby (two) were analysed over the 8-year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2007. Rates of self-harm declined significantly over 8 years for males in three centres (Oxford: -14%; Manchester: -25%; Derby: -18%) and females in two centres (Oxford: -2% (not significant); Manchester: -13%; Derby: -17%), in keeping with national trends in suicide. A decreasing proportion and number of episodes involved self-poisoning alone, and an increasing proportion and number involved other self-injury (e.g. hanging, jumping, traffic related). Episodes involving self-cutting alone showed a slight decrease in numbers over time. Trends in alcohol use at the time of self-harm and repetition within 1 year were stable. There were decreasing rates of non-fatal self-harm over the study period that paralleled trends in suicide in England. This was reflected mainly in a decline in emergency department presentations for self-poisoning.

  7. Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Ghabaei Sough, Mohammad; Sadeghi, Sayed-Hossein; Mooshakhian, Yousof; Bannayan, Mohammad

    2017-05-01

    The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) trends to key climatic factors (minimum and maximum air temperature ( T max and T min), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours ( t sun), and wind speed ( U 2)) in Iran by applying a qualitative detrended method, rather than the historical mathematical approach. Meteorological data for the period of 1963-2007 from five synoptic stations with different climatic characteristics, including Mashhad (mountains), Tabriz (mountains), Tehran (semi-desert), Anzali (coastal wet), and Shiraz (semi-mountains) were used to address this objective. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the trends of ETo and the climatic variables. The results indicated a significant increasing trend of the monthly ETo for Mashhad and Tabriz for most part of the year while the opposite conclusion was drawn for Tehran, Anzali, and Shiraz. Based on the detrended method, RH and U 2 were the two main variables enhancing the negative ETo trends in Tehran and Anzali stations whereas U 2 and temperature were responsible for this observation in Shiraz. On the other hand, the main meteorological variables affecting the significant positive trend of ETo were RH and t sun in Tabriz and T min, RH, and U 2 in Mashhad. Although a relative agreement was observed in terms of identifying one of the first two key climatic variables affecting the ETo trend, the qualitative and the quantitative sensitivity analysis solutions did never coincide. Further research is needed to evaluate this interesting finding for other geographic locations, and also to search for the major causes of this discrepancy.

  8. Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985-2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heron, Scott F.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark

    2016-12-01

    Coral reefs across the world’s oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world’s reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985-2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the ‘winter’ reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985-91 and 2006-12 - a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.

  9. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

    1991-01-01

    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  10. Trends in mental health services utilization and stigma in US soldiers from 2002 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quartana, Phillip J; Wilk, Joshua E; Thomas, Jeffrey L; Bray, Robert M; Rae Olmsted, Kristine L; Brown, Janice M; Williams, Jason; Kim, Paul Y; Clarke-Walper, Kristina; Hoge, Charles W

    2014-09-01

    We characterized trends in mental health services utilization and stigma over the course of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars among active-component US soldiers. We evaluated trends in mental health services utilization and stigma using US Army data from the Health-Related Behavior (HRB) surveys from 2002, 2005, and 2008 (n = 12,835) and the Land Combat Study (LCS) surveys administered to soldiers annually from 2003 to 2009 and again in 2011 (n = 22,627). HRB and LCS data suggested increased mental health services utilization and decreased stigma in US soldiers between 2002 and 2011. These trends were evident in soldiers with and without posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), major depressive disorder (MDD), or PTSD and MDD. Despite the improving trends, more than half of soldiers with mental health problems did not report seeking care. Mental health services utilization increased and stigma decreased over the course of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Although promising, these findings indicate that a significant proportion of US soldiers meeting criteria for PTSD or MDD do not utilize mental health services, and stigma remains a pervasive problem requiring further attention.

  11. Probability Distribution and Projected Trends of Daily Precipitation in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CAO; Li-Ge; ZHONG; Jun; SU; Bu-Da; ZHAI; Jian-Qing; Macro; GEMMER

    2013-01-01

    Based on observed daily precipitation data of 540 stations and 3,839 gridded data from the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-Climate Limited-area Modeling(CCLM)for 1961–2000,the simulation ability of CCLM on daily precipitation in China is examined,and the variation of daily precipitation distribution pattern is revealed.By applying the probability distribution and extreme value theory to the projected daily precipitation(2011–2050)under SRES A1B scenario with CCLM,trends of daily precipitation series and daily precipitation extremes are analyzed.Results show that except for the western Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and South China,distribution patterns of the kurtosis and skewness calculated from the simulated and observed series are consistent with each other;their spatial correlation coefcients are above 0.75.The CCLM can well capture the distribution characteristics of daily precipitation over China.It is projected that in some parts of the Jianghuai region,central-eastern Northeast China and Inner Mongolia,the kurtosis and skewness will increase significantly,and precipitation extremes will increase during 2011–2050.The projected increase of maximum daily rainfall and longest non-precipitation period during flood season in the aforementioned regions,also show increasing trends of droughts and floods in the next 40 years.

  12. Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

    2005-02-01

    The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

  13. Trends in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components in South Korea: Findings from the Korean National Health Insurance Service Database (2009–2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seung Eun; Han, Kyungdo; Kang, Yu Mi; Kim, Seon-Ok; Cho, Yun Kyung; Ko, Kyung Soo; Park, Joong-Yeol; Lee, Ki-Up

    2018-01-01

    Background The prevalence of metabolic syndrome has markedly increased worldwide. However, studies in the United States show that it has remained stable or slightly declined in recent years. Whether this applies to other countries is presently unclear. Objectives We examined the trends in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components in Korea. Methods The prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its components was estimated in adults aged >30 years from the Korean National Health Insurance Service data from 2009 to 2013. The revised National Cholesterol Education Program criteria were used to define metabolic syndrome. Results Approximately 10 million individuals were analyzed annually. The age-adjusted prevalence of metabolic syndrome increased from 28.84% to 30.52%, and the increasing trend was more prominent in men. Prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia, low HDL-cholesterol, and impaired fasting plasma glucose significantly increased. However, the prevalence of hypertension decreased in both genders. The prevalence of abdominal obesity decreased in women over 50 years-of-age but significantly increased in young women and men (metabolic syndrome is still increasing in Korea. Trends in each component of metabolic syndrome are disparate according to the gender, or age groups. Notably, abdominal obesity among young adults increased significantly; thus, interventional strategies should be implemented particularly for this age group. PMID:29566051

  14. Increased atmospheric ammonia over the world's major agricultural areas detected from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, J. X.; Dickerson, R. R.; Wei, Z.; Strow, L. L.; Wang, Y.; Liang, Q.

    2017-03-01

    This study provides evidence of substantial increases in atmospheric ammonia (NH3) concentrations (14 year) over several of the worlds major agricultural regions, using recently available retrievals from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard NASA's Aqua satellite. The main sources of atmospheric NH3 are farming and animal husbandry involving reactive nitrogen ultimately derived from fertilizer use; rates of emission are also sensitive to climate change. Significant increasing trends are seen over the U.S. (2.61% yr-1), the European Union (EU) (1.83% yr-1), and China (2.27% yr-1). Over the EU, the trend results from decreased scavenging by acid aerosols. Over the U.S., the increase results from a combination of decreased chemical loss and increased soil temperatures. Over China, decreased chemical loss, increasing temperatures, and increased fertilizer use all play a role. Over South Asia, increased NH3 emissions are masked by increased SO2 and NOx emissions, leading to increased aerosol loading and adverse health effects.

  15. Trends in Canadian Respiratory Clinical Trials from 2001 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Elizabeth Tacon

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Clinical research bridges patients’ unmet medical need with innovative medicines, increases knowledge acquisition by clinicians, and creates solutions to improve the sustainability and quality of the Canadian health care system and economy. The Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Canadian Lung Association have recently raised concerns over declining research activities within the Canadian respiratory community. While there are currently >3000 ongoing clinical trials in Canada, the number of trials investigating common respiratory diseases is unknown. The objective of the present study was to monitor the trends in industry- and non-industry-sponsored respiratory clinical trials in Canada from 2001 to 2011. Trialtrove 2012 (Citeline, an Informa UK business, a database containing summarized clinical trial information regarding pharmaceutical products, was searched using common chronic respiratory disease terms: “allergic rhinitis”, “asthma”, “chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD”, “cystic fibrosis”, “respiratory infections”, “pulmonary fibrosis” and “smoking cessation”. Over the past 10 years, the number of respiratory clinical trials conducted in Canada has increased (4.49 per year; P=0.004. From 2001 to 2011, the majority of trials were performed in asthma, followed closely by respiratory infections and COPD. Over the past decade, the number of trials investigating COPD and respiratory infections increased (P<0.05, while asthma trials showed a declining trend since 2007. Of the clinical trials performed during this 10-year period, the majority were in phase III, with a significant increase in the number of phase II trials (2.49 per year; P=0.008. However, certain trends observed are concerning and warrant further monitoring in the coming years.

  16. National trends in anterior cervical fusion procedures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marawar, Satyajit; Girardi, Federico P; Sama, Andrew A; Ma, Yan; Gaber-Baylis, Licia K; Besculides, Melanie C; Memtsoudis, Stavros G

    2010-07-01

    Population-based database analysis. To analyze trends in patient- and healthcare-system-related characteristics, utilization and outcomes associated with anterior cervical spine fusions. Anterior cervical decompression and spine fusion (ACDF) is one of the most commonly performed surgical procedures of the spine. However, few data analyzing trends in patient- and healthcare-system-related characteristics, utilization and outcomes exist. Data from 1990 to 2004 collected in the National Hospital Discharge Survey were accessed. ACDF procedures were identified. Five-year periods of interest (POI) were created for temporal analysis and changes in the prevalence and utilization of this procedure as well as in patient- and healthcare-system-related variables were examined. The changes in the occurrence of procedure-related complications were evaluated. An estimated total of 771,932 discharges after ACDF were identified. Temporally, an almost 8-fold increase in total prevalence was accompanied by a similar increase in utilization (23/100.000 civilians/POI to 157/100.000/civilians/POI). The highest increase in utilization was observed in those > or =65 years (28-fold). Average age increased from 47.2 years to 50.5 years over time. Length of hospital stay decreased from 5.17 days to 2.38 days. Overall procedure-related complication rates decreased from 4.6% to 3.03%. The prevalence of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, obesity, pulmonary, and coronary artery increased over time among patients undergoing ACDF. Despite limitations inherent to secondary analysis of large databases, we identified a number of significant changes in the utilization, demographics, and outcomes associated with ACDF, which can be used to assess the effect of changes in medical care, direct health care resources, and future research. The effect of the increased prevalence of comorbidities on medical practice remains to be evaluated. Further studies are necessary to evaluate causal

  17. [Variation trends of the vegetations in distribution region of Amur tiger based on MODIS NDVI].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hua-Ru; Wang, Tian-Ming; Ge, Han-Ping

    2012-10-01

    By using the averaged 250 m MODIS NDVI data in growth seasons of 2000-2010 and the approach of ordinary linear regression, this paper analyzed the variation trends of the vegetations in the distribution region of Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica), the Far East region of Russia and the eastern part of Northeast China, as well as the relationships between these variation trends and the anthropogenic activities. In 2000 - 2010, the areas with significantly decreased NDVI were sparsely distributed and accounted for 9.6% of the total, while the areas with significantly increased NDVI were mainly concentrated in the central part of northern Russia Far East Region and only accounted for 0.5% of the total. The percentage of the areas with significantly decreased NDVI in the distribution region of Amur tiger was slightly higher than that in the whole study region. The areas with significantly decreased NDVI were mainly distributed in the places of low elevation, gentle slope, and close to roads/railroads. The number of the pixels with significantly decreased NDVI increased with the increase of the nearest distance to residential locations first, and then decreased gradually. The significant decrease of the NDVI was closely related to the anthropogenic activities, and thus, to adopt effective measures to reduce human disturbances could control the vegetation degradation, and further, provide sustainable basis for the protection of Amur tiger and the conservation of the biodiversity in the studied region.

  18. Determination of forest growth trends in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia): combination of tree-ring analysis and remote sensing data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopatin, E. [Joensuu Univ., Faculty of Forestry, Joensuu (Finland); Kolstroem, T. [Joensuu Univ., Mekrijaervi Research Station, Joensuu (Finland); Spiecker, H. [Univ. of Freiburg, Inst. for Forest Growth, Freiburg (Germany)

    2006-07-01

    It is very important to detect changes in forest productivity due to the global change on a large scale. In this work, the evolution of the vegetation in the Komi Republic (northwestern Russia) from 1982 to 2001 was analyzed using NOAA AVHRR PAL time series. A statistically significant correlation (adjusted r2 = 0.44-0.59) between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and tree ring width (261 living trees) was identified for the territory of the Komi Republic. The increased site productivity reflected an increase of integrated NDVI values from June to August. This allows NDVI to be used as a proxy for estimation of forest growth trends for the recent decades. A positive and significant trend in NDVI data was identified from 1982 to 2001, coinciding with an increase in site productivity in the study area. The decrease in precipitations coincided with an increase in site productivity (highest r2 was 0.71). The increase in productivity reflected in NDVI data is maximal on the sites with increased temperature and decreased precipitations. In the Komi Republic the distribution of the trends in NDVI data changes on the south-west to north-east gradient. NDVI data could be used to increase spatial resolution of tree ring width series. Taking into account the relatively small role of human activity in the Komi Republic compared with Europe, the site productivity during recent decades also increased in relatively untouched forests. (orig.)

  19. CHANGING TRENDS IN CAESAREAN DELIVERY - A CLINICAL STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annappa Shetty

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND Today, there is a concern over the rising caesarean delivery both in the developed and developing countries across the world. It has been observed that both primary and repeat caesarean deliveries have been increasing at an alarming rate. Indications for caesarean deliveries also shows changing trends in the present scenario. The main aim of this study is to compare the caesarean delivery rates over the last one decade. The objective behind the study is to understand the contributing factors for the new trends. MATERIALS AND METHODS For this study, the data was collected in a retrospective manner from all the deliveries that occurred between July 1, 2005, to June 30, 2006, and July 2015 to June 30, 2016, in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Karwar Institute of Medical Science, Karwar. A cohort of 2752 delivered women were studied. Among the caesarean births, the indications for both the primary and repeat caesarean sections were studied. After analysing the caesarean births from total live births, the rate for both primary and repeat caesarean were calculated. RESULTS The caesarean delivery rate is increased from 167 to 263 for 1000 live births with increase in primary caesarean delivery rate from 101 (10.1% to 187 (18.7% per 1000 live births in last one decade. Foetal distress, cephalopelvic disproportion, arrest of descent, multiple gestations, breech presentation contributed to this increase. CONCLUSION There is an increase in the total caesarean rate with significant rise in the primary caesarean rate in the last one decade.

  20. Effect of healthcare on mortality: trends in avoidable mortality in Umbria, Italy, 1994-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabrizio Stracci

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Avoidable mortality trends over the period 1994-2009 were calculated to evaluate health intervention by the health system of Umbria, a region of central Italy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Mortality data were supplied by the regional causes of death registry. Rates were standardized to the 2001 census Italian population. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends. RESULTS: Overall avoidable mortality rates decreased significantly both in males (-3.9% per year and in females (-3.6% per year. Mortality rates from ischemic heart and cerebrovascular disease about halved in the study period in both sexes. Avoidable mortality increased slightly only for a few causes (e.g. lung cancer in females. CONCLUSION: The overall trend of avoidable mortality indicates that the regional health/ preventive system is performing well.

  1. TRENDS IN ROMANIAN TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pirjol Florentina

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Tourism is an industry of the future, having the potential to provide significant revenues, and an industry of 'beauty', because it will protect, preserve and contribute to arranging the environment affected by other human activities. This is why it is very important to know the evolution of this underdeveloped field in our country. This paper is intended as a study on current trends in Romanian tourism without any claim of being an exhaustive research on the industry, describing the main indices of tourist traffic and their influence on Romanian tourism. Nowadays, we witness three main trends in Romanian tourism: sustainability, ecotourism and the increasing presence of cultural tourism. Ecotourism, as a form of tourism, has emerged from people's need to withdraw in nature, to visit and learn about the natural areas which have or have not a national or international protection status. Cultural tourism appears as a type of tourism clearly differentiated from other forms or types of tourism, particularly through motivation. It can be defined as a form of tourist mobility whose primary goal is broadening the horizon of knowledge by uncovering its architectural and artistic heritage and the areas in which it originates. Sustainability for tourism, as for other industries, has three independent aspects: economic, socio-cultural and environmental. Sustainability implies permanence, which means that sustainable tourism requires the optimal use of resources, minimizing the negative economic, socio-cultural and ecological impact, maximizing the benefits upon local communities, national economies and conservation of nature. Regarding statistical data, in what quantity is concerned, there is an increase in Romanian tourism, but in what quality is concerned there is a setback for tourism in the last years. This aspect should make public authorities take concern in improving the infrastructure and the quality of the touristical activity and in diversifying

  2. Temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and perfluorinated compounds in Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) eggs (1984-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianxian, Sun; Hui, Peng; Jianying, Hu

    2015-02-03

    Because investigation on the temporal trends of persistent halogenated compounds (PHCs) is necessary to predict their future impacts on the environment and human health and evaluate the effectiveness of regulations on their production and usage, it is of concern to investigate annual temporal trends of PHCs in biota samples. This study examined the temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) eggs over a period of 25 years (1984-2008), and 62 PCBs (19.2-1030 ng/g dw for total PCBs), 16 PBDEs (4.7-572 ng/g dw for total PBDEs), and 14 PFCs (26-46 ng/g dw for total PFCs) were detected. Although a decreasing temporal trend was observed for total PCBs with annual reduction rate of 3.4% (ρ = 0.005), a clear break point was observed around 1991, indicating their continuing emission in the 1980s in China. All major PBDEs showed increasing temporal trends, with annual change rates at 3.5-10.2% over the 25 years, but a sharp decreasing trend was observed after 2006, indicating a rapid response to the banning of PBDE usage in China in 2004. The greatest annual rate of increase was observed for BDE-28 (10.2%) followed by BDE-100 (7.7%), which would be due to metabolism input from higher brominated PBDEs. Significantly increasing temporal trends were observed for all PFCs, and the annual rates of increase were 7.9% and 5.9% for total perfluorinated carboxylic acids and perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), respectively. A peak concentration for PFOS was observed in 1989, which may be related to the import history of PFCs in China. The present study is the first report of systematic temporal trends of PHCs in biota samples from China and shows that regulatory policy is needed to reduce their potential health and ecological risk in China considering the increasing temporal trends of PBDEs and PFCs.

  3. Ten-year secular trend of overweight and obesity in school children in south-eastern Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Artur Mazur

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To examine the trend in prevalence of overweight and obesity in schoolchildren from south-eastern Poland over a 10-year period. Materials and Method. A cross-sectional study was conducted in randomly selected primary schools. In total, 4,248 children (2,182 boys and 2,066 girls, mean age 10.5±2.4 years, were examined in 1998, and 2,412 children (1,184 boys and 1,228 girls, mean age 10.5±2.3 years in 2008. In each school the entire population was studied. Results. In 2008, the prevalence of overweight in girls was 13.3% and obesity 7.7%, compared to 12.0% and 10.1% in 1998. The decrease in obesity prevalence was statistically significant. In boys, the prevalence of overweight in 2008 was 14.2% and obesity 6.4%, compared to 10.5% and 6.8% in 1998. The increase in overweight prevalence among boys was statistically significant. Conclusions. A trend toward stabilization of the prevalence of overweight and obesity was noted in school children from south-eastern Poland between 1998–2008. The declining prevalence of obesity in girls and increased prevalence of overweight in boys demonstrates that in this age group of children the secular trend is gender dependent.

  4. Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

    2017-05-25

    Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

  5. Agroforestry trends in Punjab, Pakistan

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    user

    The main objectives of the study pertain to agro forestry trend in Punjab, ... further increase it, if the government revives financial/technical incentives and marketing facilities. ...... their socioeconomics, land ownership and sustainable life.

  6. Time trend by region of suicides and suicidal thoughts among Greenland Inuit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Larsen, Christina Viskum Lytken

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Suicides remain a major public health problem in Greenland. Their increase coincides with the modernization since 1950. Serious suicidal thoughts are reported by a significant proportion of participants in countrywide surveys. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the time trend by region of suicides...... and suicidal thoughts among the Inuit in Greenland. DESIGN: Data included the Greenland registry of causes of death for 1970-2011 and 2 cross-sectional health surveys carried out in 1993-1994 and 2005-2010 with 1,580 and 3,102 Inuit participants, respectively. RESULTS: Suicide rates were higher among men than...... women while the prevalence of suicidal thoughts was higher among women. Suicide rates for men and women together increased from 1960 to 1980 and have remained around 100 per 100,000 person-years since then. The regional pattern of time trend for suicide rates varied with an early peak in the capital...

  7. Trends in chronic diseases among the oldest-old in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teh, Jane K. L.; Tey, Nai Peng

    2015-12-01

    This study examined the prevalence of several chronic diseases among the oldest-old in China. Data came from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) of 4 waves collected in 2002, 2005, 2008 and 2011, filtered to include individuals aged 80 and above. Bivariate and logistic regression methods were used in analyses. There were significant differences in the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, chronic heart diseases, stroke/cardiovascular diseases, cancer and dementia, which generally saw an increase across the 4 waves. By contrast, prevalence of Parkinson was not significantly different over the 4 waves. Logistic regression results revealed that since 2002, hypertension had been significantly higher in subsequent waves in 2005, 2008 and 2011. Stroke had also shown significant increase in the 2008 and 2011 waves. Other chronic diseases such as diabetes, heart disease, cancer, Parkinson and dementia were only found to be significantly higher in the recent 2011 wave compared to the initial wave in 2002. Arthritis, which initially increased in earlier waves, had dropped significantly in the recent 2011 wave. However, respiratory conditions had been significantly lower since the initial wave in 2002. Generally, findings confirmed the increasing trend of chronic morbidity in recent years among the oldest-old in China. Long life expectancy coupled with chronic morbidity in very late age will duly have societal and economic implications.

  8. Long-term trends in child and youth injury mortality in Taiwan, 1989-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-Lin Lu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Injuries are the leading causes of death and contribute greatly to morbidity in children. Our study examined injuries′ age and gender-specific variations over time among children 0-19, from 1989 to 2007. Materials and Methods: Numbers of deaths caused by injury are drawn from Taiwan′s official Vital Statistics System. Mortality was age-adjusted to the US 2000 standard population. Temporal trends were analyzed by linear regression. Results: Both genders′ annual mortality rates and proportional mortality ratios of unintentional injuries declined significantly during 1989-2007. Conversely, an increasing trend of intentional deaths occurred. In general, during 1992-2007, increasing the rates of suicide deaths in ages 10-19 and of homicide deaths in ages 0-9 occurred. Boys had more suicide deaths than did girls. Conclusions: Unlike unintentional injuries, intentional injuries increased over the 1989-2007 period. Deaths in the subgroups of ages 0-19 and categorized by genders were caused by varying injuries.

  9. National Differences in Trends for Heart Failure Hospitalizations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziaeian, Boback; Kominski, Gerald F; Ong, Michael K; Mays, Vickie M; Brook, Robert H; Fonarow, Gregg C

    2017-07-01

    National heart failure (HF) hospitalization rates have not been appropriately age standardized by sex or race/ethnicity. Reporting hospital utilization trends by subgroup is important for monitoring population health and developing interventions to eliminate disparities. The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) was used to estimate the crude and age-standardized rates of HF hospitalization between 2002 and 2013 by sex and race/ethnicity. Direct standardization was used to age-standardize rates to the 2000 US standard population. Relative differences between subgroups were reported. The national age-adjusted HF hospitalization rate decreased 30.8% from 526.86 to 364.66 per 100 000 between 2002 and 2013. Although hospitalizations decreased for all subgroups, the ratio of the age-standardized rate for men compared with women increased from 20% greater to 39% ( P trend=0.002) between 2002 and 2013. Black men had a rate that was 229% ( P trend=0.141) and black women, 240% ( P trend=0.725) with reference to whites in 2013 with no significant change between 2002 and 2013. Hispanic men had a rate that was 32% greater in 2002 and the difference narrowed to 4% ( P trend=0.047) greater in 2013 relative to whites. For Hispanic women, the rate was 55% greater in 2002 and narrowed to 8% greater ( P trend=0.004) in 2013 relative to whites. Asian/Pacific Islander men had a 27% lower rate in 2002 that improved to 43% ( P trend=0.040) lower in 2013 relative to whites. For Asian/Pacific Islander women, the hospitalization rate was 24% lower in 2002 and improved to 43% ( P trend=0.021) lower in 2013 relative to whites. National HF hospitalization rates have decreased steadily during the recent decade. Disparities in HF burden and hospital utilization by sex and race/ethnicity persist. Significant population health interventions are needed to reduce the HF hospitalization burden among blacks. An evaluation of factors explaining the improvements in the HF hospitalization rates among

  10. Spatial and Temporal Streamflow Trends in Northern Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen-Feng Yeh

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow is an important factor in the study of water resource management, floods, and droughts. Dramatic climate change has created extreme rainfall distributions, making the study of streamflow trends and variability even more crucial. In this study, the long-term streamflow data and trends recorded at gauging stations in Northern Taiwan are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The data used for trend analysis are the average annual streamflow, the average seasonal streamflow, and the high and low flows. The slope trend is calculated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Finally, change point analysis is conducted using the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test and the cumulative deviation test to gain further information about the change points and to understand the changes in streamflow before and after the change points. The average annual streamflow of the 12 gauging stations in the study area is analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results show that of the 12 gauging stations, only the Ximen Bridge Station in the Lanyang River basin show a significant downward streamflow trend. Results of the monthly and seasonal average streamflow analysis show that in the spring, 72.2% of the gauging stations showed upward streamflow trends, most of which were located in the Tamsui River and the Touqian River basins. The high and low flow data analysis shows that the Ximen Bridge Station was the only gauging station to feature a significant downward streamflow trend for both high and low flows. This distribution pattern provides valuable information for regional hydrological studies and water management.

  11. Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

    2007-12-01

    Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

  12. Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

    2018-01-01

    Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

  13. 0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

    2015-04-01

    Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

  14. Trends in motor neuron disease: association with latitude and air lead levels in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santurtún, Ana; Villar, Alejandro; Delgado-Alvarado, Manuel; Riancho, Javier

    2016-08-01

    Motor neuron diseases (MND) are a group of disorders characterized by motor neuron degeneration. Among them, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is by far the most common in adulthood. This paper assesses the trend and geographical pattern in MND incidence in Spain and the possible air lead levels effect on this pathology. To confirm this concept, we performed a retrospective analysis of the deaths due to MND in Spain during 2000 and 2013, determined the geographical differences, and explored the relationship between MND and the air levels of lead. Overall, between 2000 and 2013, 11,355 people died in Spain because of MND. Disease mortality significantly increased in recent years (2007-2013) when compared with the first time of the period. Spearman's rank correlation coefficient also showed a statistically significant positive trend (CC = 0.824, p = 0.0002). Among people over 65 years, mortality rates were higher in Northern provinces. Moreover, we found a significant association of MND mortality with higher air lead levels (CC = 0.457, p = 0.01). Our study confirms that MND mortality is increasing in Spain, with a significant latitude gradient, which suggests an important role of environmental exposures. This ecological study suggests that air lead levels may be implicated in ALS pathogenesis.

  15. Trends of fruit and vegetable availability in neighbourhoods in Albany, NY, USA, 2003-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosler, Akiko S; Kammer, Jamie R

    2015-02-01

    To investigate a 9-year trend of fresh fruit and vegetable availability and factors associated with the net availability change in two contrasting neighbourhoods. Longitudinal design. Data were collected in 2003, 2009 and 2012 through in-store observations. Fresh fruit and vegetable availability was presented by weight-adjusted counts of stores having designated varieties per 10 000 population. A low-income minority neighbourhood and an adjacent middle-income racially mixed neighbourhood in Albany, NY, USA. These neighbourhoods became sites of fresh produce interventions after baseline data were collected. A total of 111, 128 and 146 eligible food stores in respective years. Fresh fruit availability (two or more varieties) increased in both neighbourhoods. Inventory expansion of existing stores and the convenience store intervention contributed to the significant increase (P for trend=0·04) of fresh fruit availability in the minority neighbourhood. Although not statistically significant (P>0·05), the availability of two or more dark-coloured fresh vegetables also increased in the mixed neighbourhood, but declined slightly in the minority neighbourhood. The secular (non-intervention) fresh vegetable availability rate ratio by neighbourhood reached 3·0 in 2012 (Pconvenience store intervention to address the fresh vegetable disparity.

  16. Long-term trends of suicide by choice of method in Norway: a joinpoint regression analysis of data from 1969 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puzo, Quirino; Qin, Ping; Mehlum, Lars

    2016-03-11

    Suicide mortality and the rates by specific methods in a population may change over time in response to concurrent changes in relevant factors in society. This study aimed to identify significant changing points in method-specific suicide mortality from 1969 to 2012 in Norway. Data on suicide mortality by specific methods and by sex and age were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause-of-Death Register. Long-term trends in age-standardized rates of suicide mortality were analyzed by using joinpoint regression analysis. The most frequently used suicide method in the total population was hanging, followed by poisoning and firearms. Men chose suicide by firearms more often than women, whereas poisoning and drowning were more frequently used by women. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of suicide mortality significantly changed twice along the period of 1969 to 2012 for both sexes. The male age-standardized suicide rate increased by 3.1% per year until 1989, and decreased by 1.2% per year between 1994 and 2012. Among females the long-term suicide rate increased by 4.0% per year until 1988, decreased by 5.5% through 1995, and then stabilized. Both sexes experienced an upward trend for suicide by hanging during the 44-year observation period, with a particularly significant increase in 15-24 year old males. The most distinct change among men was seen for firearms after 1988 with a significant decrease through 2012 of around 5% per year. For women, significant reductions since 1985-88 were observed for suicide by drowning and poisoning. The present study demonstrates different time trends for different suicide methods with significant reductions in suicide by firearms, drowning and poisoning after the peak in the suicide rate in the late 1980s. Suicide by means of hanging continuously increased, but did not fully compensate for the reduced use of other methods. This lends some support for the effectiveness of method-specific suicide preventive measures

  17. Time trends and epidemiological patterns of perinatal lamb mortality in Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmøy, Ingrid Hunter; Waage, Steinar

    2015-09-30

    Perinatal mortality is a major cause of loss in the sheep industry. Our aim was to explore time trends in crude population stillbirth and neonatal mortality rates in Norway. We used data on 6,435,715 lambs from flocks enrolled in the Norwegian Sheep Recording System (NSRS) from 2000 through 2010 for descriptive analysis of trends. Longitudinal patterns of mortality rates were compared for lambs within different levels of variables suspected to be associated with perinatal loss. There was an approximately linear increase in the annual proportion of stillborn lambs during the study period, from 3.3 % in 2000 to 4.7 % in 2010. In the same time period, average litter size of ewes in NSRS flocks increased from 2.00 to 2.19. However, a steady rise in stillbirth rate was observed within each litter size group, suggesting a gradually increasing impact on stillbirth risk of other, yet unidentified, factors. Average flock size increased during the study period. The highest stillbirth rates were found in the largest and smallest flocks. Early neonatal mortality rates (0-5 days of life) varied from year to year (minimum 2.2 %, maximum 3.2 %) and were invariably higher among triplets and quadruplets than among singletons and twins. Annual fluctuations were parallel within the various litter sizes. A significant overall decreasing trend was present within all litter sizes with the exception of singletons. Weather data for the prime lambing months (April and May) 2000-2010 indicated a relationship between low temperatures and high neonatal mortality rates. At the flock level, there was a significant positive correlation between stillbirths and early neonatal mortality rates (r = 0.13), between stillbirth rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.43) and between early neonatal mortality rates in two consecutive years (r = 0.40). The substantial increase in ovine stillbirth rate in recent years in Norway was to some extent related to a corresponding increase in the

  18. Trends in nicotine yield in smoke and its relationship with design characteristics among popular US cigarette brands, 1997–2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Gregory N; Alpert, Hillel R; Wayne, Geoffrey Ferris; Koh, Howard

    2007-01-01

    Objectives To determine whether nicotine yields in the smoke of cigarettes would show an overall increase over time or an increasing trend limited to any particular market category (eg, full flavour vs light, medium (mild) or ultralight; mentholated vs non‐mentholated), manufacturer, or brand family or brand style, and whether nicotine yields in smoke would be associated with measurable trends in cigarette design. Methods Machine‐based measures of nicotine yield in smoke and measures of cigarette design features related to nicotine delivery (ventilation, nicotine content in the tobacco rod and number of puffs), as well as market category descriptors, were obtained from annual reports filed with the Massachusetts Department of Public by tobacco manufacturers for 1997–2005. Trends in nicotine yield and its relationship with design features and market parameters were analysed with multilevel mixed‐effects regression modelling procedures. Results A statistically significant trend was confirmed in increased nicotine yield, of 0.019 (1.1%) mg/cig/year over the period 1997–2005 and 0.029 (1.6%) mg/cig/year over the period 1998–2005. The increasing trend was observed in all major market categories (mentholated vs non‐mentholated, and full flavour vs light, medium (mild) or ultralight). Nicotine yield in smoke was positively associated with nicotine concentration in the tobacco and number of puffs per cigarette, both of which showed increasing trends during the study period. Conclusions This study confirms increased machine‐measured levels of nicotine, the addictive agent in cigarettes, in smoke, to be a result of increased nicotine in the tobacco rod and other design modifications. PMID:17897974

  19. Temporal trends and recent correlates in sedentary behaviours in Chinese children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dibley Michael J

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Sedentary behaviours (television, video and computer are related to health outcomes independent of physical activity. Few studies have examined trends and correlates of sedentary behaviours among youth in developing nations. The current study is to examine temporal trends in sedentary behaviours and recent correlates of screen use in Chinese children during a period of economic transition. Methods Secondary analysis of China Health and Nutrition Surveys. Cross-sectional data on sedentary behaviours including screen use among children aged 6-18 years from four surveys in 1997 (n = 2,469, 2000 (n = 1,838, 2004 (n = 1,382 and 2006 (n = 1,128. Temporal trends in screen use by socio-demographic characteristics were examined. The correlates of spending more than 2 hours per day on screen time in the most recent survey data (2006, n = 986 were analysed using survey logistic regression analysis. Results Daily screen time significantly increased in each subgroup by age, sex and urban/rural residence, with the largest increase for urban boys aged 13-18 years from 0.5 hours to 1.7 hours, and for rural boys aged 6-12 years from 0.7 hours to 1.7 hours (p Conclusion This study confirms sedentary behaviour has increased over the last decade in Chinese children. Efforts to ensure Chinese youth meet screen time guidelines include limiting access to screen technologies and encouraging parents to monitor their own screen time and to set limits on their child's screen time.

  20. Work-related ill health in doctors working in Great Britain: incidence rates and trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Anli Yue; Carder, Melanie; Gittins, Matthew; Agius, Raymond

    2017-11-01

    Background Doctors have a higher prevalence of mental ill health compared with other professional occupations but incidence rates are poorly studied. Aims To determine incidence rates and trends of work-related ill health (WRIH) and work-related mental ill health (WRMIH) in doctors compared with other professions in Great Britain. Method Incidence rates were calculated using an occupational physician reporting scheme from 2005-2010. Multilevel regression was use to study incidence rates from 2001 to 2014. Results Annual incidence rates for WRIH and WRIMH in doctors were 515 and 431 per 100 000 people employed, respectively. Higher incidence rates for WRIH and WRMIH were observed for ambulance staff and nurses, respectively. Doctors demonstrated an annual average incidence rates increase for WRIH and WRMIH, especially in women, whereas the other occupations demonstrated a decreasing or static trend. The difference in trends between the occupations was statistically significant. Conclusions WRIH and WRMIH incidence rate are increasing in doctors, especially in women, warranting further research. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2017.

  1. Current Status and Trend of Internet and E-Commerce Market in Korea

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LEE Hongjoo; KIM Jongwoo; PARK Sungjoo

    2004-01-01

    After the remarkable increase of Internet users and broadband Internet subscribers at the end of the 20th century, the size of Korean Internet and e-commerce market steadily increased but the growth rate has been either stagnant or decreased. Trends of Korean Internet and e-commerce market are summarized in this paper the trends on Internet usage are introduced. Trends of online games, blogs and wireless Internet are introduced. The trends of Korean Internet market may have implications for China and Japan.

  2. A trending database for human performance events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, D.

    1993-01-01

    An effective Operations Experience program includes a standardized methodology for the investigation of unplanned events and a tool capable of retaining investigation data for the purpose of trending analysis. A database used in conjunction with a formalized investigation procedure for the purpose of trending unplanning event data is described. The database follows the structure of INPO's Human Performance Enhancement System for investigations. The database screens duplicate on-line the HPES evaluation Forms. All information pertaining to investigations is collected, retained and entered into the database using these forms. The database will be used for trending analysis to determine if any significant patterns exist, for tracking progress over time both within AECL and against industry standards, and for evaluating the success of corrective actions. Trending information will be used to help prevent similar occurrences

  3. Long-term trends in radial growth of Siberian spruce and Scots pine in Komi Republic (northwestern Russia)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopatin, E. (Univ. of Joensuu (Finland)); Kolstroem, T. (Russian Academy of Sciences, Syktyvkar (Russian Federation)); Spiecker, H. (Univ. of Freiburg (Germany))

    2008-07-01

    Komi is situated on the eastern boundary of the European part of Russia, in the boreal region where large areas of natural forest still exist. Using radial growth measurements it was possible to attain positive long-term trends of growth in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) in the Komi Republic. Increases in the radial growth of Siberian spruce in the forest-tundra were 134% and in the northern taiga zone 35% over successive 50-year periods from 1901 to 1950 and from 1951 to 2000. Respectively, in the middle taiga zone a 76% increase in radial growth was found (over 100 years), whilst in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The increase in radial growth of Scots pine in the northern taiga zone was 32%. In the middle taiga zone the radial growth increase in Scots pine was 55% and in the southern taiga zone the changes were not statistically significant. The long-term growth trends of Komi were compared with those in other parts of Europe. (orig.)

  4. Spatial and temporal trends of reference crop evapotranspiration and its influential variables in Yangtze River Delta, eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yu; Xu, Youpeng; Wang, Yuefeng; Wu, Lei; Li, Guang; Song, Song

    2017-11-01

    Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important links in hydrologic circulation and greatly affects regional agricultural production and water resource management. Its variation has drawn more and more attention in the context of global warming. We used the Penman-Monteith method of the Food and Agriculture Organization, based on meteorological factors such as air temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed, and relative humidity to calculate the ETo over 46 meteorological stations located in the Yangtze River Delta, eastern China, from 1957 to 2014. The spatial distributions and temporal trends in ETo were analyzed based on the modified Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method, while ArcGIS software was employed to produce the distribution maps. The multiple stepwise regression method was applied in the analysis of the meteorological variable time series to identify the causes of any observed trends in ETo. The results indicated that annual ETo showed an obvious spatial pattern of higher values in the north than in the south. Annual increasing trends were found at 34 meteorological stations (73.91 % of the total), which were mainly located in the southeast. Among them, 12 (26.09 % of the total) stations showed significant trends. We saw a dominance of increasing trends in the monthly ETo except for January, February, and August. The high value zone of monthly ETo appeared in the northwest from February to June, mid-south area from July to August, and southeast coastal area from September to January. The research period was divided into two stages—stage I (1957-1989) and stage II (1990-2014)—to investigate the long-term temporal ETo variation. In stage I, almost 85 % of the total stations experienced decreasing trends, while more than half of the meteorological stations showed significant increasing trends in annual ETo during stage II except in February and September. Relative humidity, wind speed, and sunshine duration were

  5. Multidecadal increases in the Yukon River Basin of chemical fluxes as indicators of changing flowpaths, groundwater, and permafrost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toohey, Ryan C; Herman-Mercer, Nicole M.; Schuster, Paul F.; Mutter, Edda A.; Koch, Joshua C.

    2016-01-01

    The Yukon River Basin, underlain by discontinuous permafrost, has experienced a warming climate over the last century that has altered air temperature, precipitation, and permafrost. We investigated a water chemistry database from 1982 to 2014 for the Yukon River and its major tributary, the Tanana River. Significant increases of Ca, Mg, and Na annual flux were found in both rivers. Additionally, SO4 and P annual flux increased in the Yukon River. No annual trends were observed for dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from 2001 to 2014. In the Yukon River, Mg and SO4 flux increased throughout the year, while some of the most positive trends for Ca, Mg, Na, SO4, and P flux occurred during the fall and winter months. Both rivers exhibited positive monthly DOC flux trends for summer (Yukon River) and winter (Tanana River). These trends suggest increased active layer expansion, weathering, and sulfide oxidation due to permafrost degradation throughout the Yukon River Basin.

  6. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day ozone distribution and trends relevant to human health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoë L. Fleming

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available This study quantifies the present-day global and regional distributions (2010–2014 and trends (2000–2014 for five ozone metrics relevant for short-term and long-term human exposure. These metrics, calculated by the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, are: 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone (4MDA8; number of days with MDA8 > 70 ppb (NDGT70, SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb and two seasonally averaged metrics (3MMDA1; AVGMDA8. These metrics were explored at ozone monitoring sites worldwide, which were classified as urban or non-urban based on population and nighttime lights data. Present-day distributions of 4MDA8 and NDGT70, determined predominantly by peak values, are similar with highest levels in western North America, southern Europe and East Asia. For the other three metrics, distributions are similar with North–South gradients more prominent across Europe and Japan. Between 2000 and 2014, significant negative trends in 4MDA8 and NDGT70 occur at most US and some European sites. In contrast, significant positive trends are found at many sites in South Korea and Hong Kong, with mixed trends across Japan. The other three metrics have similar, negative trends for many non-urban North American and some European and Japanese sites, and positive trends across much of East Asia. Globally, metrics at many sites exhibit non-significant trends. At 59% of all sites there is a common direction and significance in the trend across all five metrics, whilst 4MDA8 and NDGT70 have a common trend at ~80% of all sites. Sensitivity analysis shows AVGMDA8 trends differ with averaging period (warm season or annual. Trends are unchanged at many sites when a 1995–2014 period is used; although fewer sites exhibit non-significant trends. Over the longer period 1970–2014, most Japanese sites exhibit positive 4MDA8/SOMO35 trends. Insufficient data exist to characterize ozone trends for the rest of Asia and other world regions.

  7. Deciphering the contrasting climatic trends between the central Himalaya and Karakoram with 36 years of WRF simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Jesse; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Cannon, Forest

    2018-02-01

    Glaciers over the central Himalaya have retreated at particularly rapid rates in recent decades, while glacier mass in the Karakoram appears stable. To address the meteorological factors associated with this contrast, 36 years of Climate Forecast System Reanalyses (CFSR) are dynamically downscaled from 1979 to 2015 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over High Mountain Asia at convection permitting grid spacing (6.7 km). In all seasons, CFSR shows an anti-cyclonic warming trend over the majority of High Mountain Asia, but distinctive differences are observed between the central Himalaya and Karakoram in winter and summer. In winter and summer, the central Himalaya has been under the influence of an anti-cyclonic trend, which in summer the downscaling shows has reduced cloud cover, leading to significant warming and reduced snowfall in recent years. Contrastingly, the Karakoram has been near the boundary between large-scale cyclonic and anti-cyclonic trends and has not experienced significant snowfall or temperature changes in winter or summer, despite significant trends in summer of increasing cloud cover and decreasing shortwave radiation. This downscaling does not identify any trends over glaciers in closer neighboring regions to the Karakoram (e.g., Hindu Kush and the western Himalaya) where glaciers have retreated as over the central Himalaya, indicating that there are other factors driving glacier mass balance that this downscaling is unable to capture. While this study does not fully explain the Karakoram anomaly, the identified trends detail important meteorological contributions to the observed differences between central Himalaya and Karakoram glacier evolution in recent decades.

  8. Martensite in steels: its significance, recent developments and trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulz-Beenken, A.S.

    1997-01-01

    Martensite is generally known as a hard but brittle microstructure. This is only true for high carbon plate martensite. Recently developed steels with a lath martensite microstructure offer an excellent toughness at yield strength of 1000 MPa yield strength. A transformation into lath martensite by glide as invariant shear mechanism is only possible at a carbon content below 0,03%. The source of both high strength and good toughness is the high dislocation density and the narrow lath width off less than 1 μm. By a thermomechanical treatment, that leads to a finer lath structure both strength and ductility can be improved to a yield strength of 1150 MPa and an elongation of 18%. As, unlike high carbon plate martensite, the hardness of lath martensite is not achieved by the distortion of the tetragonal cell by carbon atoms, the hardness of lath martensite remains stable up during an annealing treatment up to 600 C. This thermal stability of the lath martensit microstructure makes an additional increase of hardness by the precipitation of different types of intermetallic phases possible. The increase of the hardness from 300 HV to 600 HV by precipitation without volume changes and good cold deformability reveals many new application in manufacturing. In plate martensite too, comparatively high toughness values can be achieved, if carbon is replaced by nitrogen. The refining influence of nitrides on the austenite grain sizes and the precipitation of fine nitrides during the annealing process leads to impact values three times higher than those of comparable high carbon plate martensite. (orig.)

  9. Long-term atmospheric visibility trend in Southeast China, 1973-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Junjun; Du, Ke; Wang, Kai; Yuan, Chung-Shin; Zhao, Juanjuan

    2012-11-01

    Particulate matter (PM) pollution in Southeast China has been worsening because of the rapid industrial development and urbanization, which have significant negative effects on atmospheric visibility. Characterization of the trend in atmospheric visibility is important for evaluating the impact of PM pollution on the impairment of visual air quality in urban and rural areas. Long-term trend in atmospheric visibility in Southeast China was analyzed for the period of 1973-2010 based on the meteorological data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database using four statistical methods: annual mean visibility, percentages of “very good” visibility and “bad” visibility, ridit analysis, and cumulative percentiles. The relationship of atmospheric extinction with Air Pollution Index (API) was studied. In addition, the effects of recent environment policies on visibility were studied. The results showed that the visibility had decreased in 94% stations of this region and prefecture stations had the highest decreasing trend of -3.1 km/decade during the entire period. The average visibility of all the 17 stations (i.e., region-average) declined at a rate of -2.0 km/decade, with a 38-year average of 18.1 km. Decrease in the percentage of “very good” visibility and increase in the percentage of “bad” visibility existed in 14 and 16 stations, respectively. Region-average percentage of “bad” visibility was in the range of 2.2-21.5%, with an increasing rate of 5.0% per decade, and that of “very good” visibility was 24.4-71.8%, with a decreasing rate of -10.7% per decade. During the entire period, county and prefecture stations had similar changing patterns and trends in visibility, while town stations had the least worsening trends. Region-average visibility was better before 1988 while worse after 1993 when comparing to the entire period, with the transition period of 1988-1993. The worst 20%, 50% and best 20% of region-average visibility

  10. Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. R. Ismail

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

  11. Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, W. R.; Hashim, M.

    2015-03-01

    The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

  12. Establishment of ambient air quality trends using historical monitoring data from Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faisal, K.; Gamal El-Din, M.

    2006-01-01

    Ambient air trends were assessed using data collected over an 8 year period from monitoring stations in Edmonton and Fort McKay, Alberta. In particular, the study evaluated the short term trends in the concentration of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), and particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) in Edmonton, as well as the NO 2 , O 3 , PM 2.5 , and total hydrocarbons in Fort McKay. In order to evaluate the ambient air trends, this study examined the changes in concentrations of these pollutants between the 50 - 90 percentiles of concentration distributions for a calendar year. These statistics were assumed to be linear over the period of study and fitted using simple linear regression. Hypothesis tests were performed to determine if the slopes of the best-fit lines were greater or less than zero. There was no indication of a statistically significant short-term trend for NO 2 and O 3 for the city of Edmonton. However, statistically pronounced decreasing trends were noted for CO and PM 2.5 . There was no indication of statistically significant trend for any of the pollutants examined at Fort McKay over the study period. It was cautioned that since the period of study over which trends were examined was short, the changes or lack of changes observed do not necessarily indicate long term trends. However, the results suggest that air quality has remained unchanged during the last 6 to 8 years, despite increased economic development in Edmonton and continued oil sands development in Fort McKay

  13. Changes in Remotely Sensed Vegetation Growth Trend in the Heihe Basin of Arid Northwestern China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenchao Sun

    Full Text Available The Heihe River Basin (HRB is the second largest inland river basin in China, characterized by high diversity in geomorphology and irrigated agriculture in middle reaches. To improve the knowledge about the relationship between biotic and hydrological processes, this study used Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data (1982-2006 to analyze spatiotemporal variations in vegetation growth by using the Mann-Kendall test together with Sen's slope estimator. The results indicate that 10.1% and 1.6% of basin area exhibit statistically significant (p < 0.05 upward and downward trends, and maximum magnitude is 0.066/10a and 0.026/10a, respectively. More specifically, an increasing trend was observed in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor and a decreasing trend detected in the transitional region between them. Increases in precipitation and temperature may be one possible reason for the changes of vegetation growth in the Qilian Mountains. And decreasing trend in transitional region may be driven by the changes in precipitation. Increases of irrigation contribute to the upward trend of NDVI for cropland in the Hexi Corridor, reflecting that agricultural development becomes more intensive. Our study demonstrates the complexity of the response of vegetation growth in the HRB to climate change and anthropogenic activities and correspondingly adopting mechanistic ecological models capable of describing both factors is favorable for reasonable predictions of future vegetation growth. It is also indicated that improving irrigation water use efficiency is one practical strategy to balance water demand between human and natural ecosystems in the HRB.

  14. A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y.-F. Sang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961–2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale. The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann–Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

  15. An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amugsi, Dickson A; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Lartey, Anna

    2013-10-16

    A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country's geographic regions. The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio

  16. A global single-sensor analysis of 2002-2011 tropospheric nitrogen dioxide trends observed from space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

    2012-08-01

    A global nine-year archive of monthly tropospheric NO2 data acquired by the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) instrument was analyzed with respect to trends between August 2002 and August 2011. In the past, similar studies relied on combining data from multiple sensors; however, the length of the SCIAMACHY data set now for the first time allows utilization of a consistent time series from just a single sensor for mapping NO2 trends at comparatively high horizontal resolution (0.25°). This study provides an updated analysis of global patterns in NO2 trends and finds that previously reported decreases in tropospheric NO2 over Europe and the United States as well as strong increases over China and several megacities in Asia have continued in recent years. Positive trends of up to 4.05 (±0.41) × 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 and up to 19.7 (±1.9) % yr-1 were found over China, with the regional mean trend being 7.3 (±3.1) % yr-1. The megacity with the most rapid relative increase was found to be Dhaka in Bangladesh. Subsequently focusing on Europe, the study further analyzes trends by country and finds significantly decreasing trends for seven countries ranging from -3.0 (±1.6) % yr-1 to -4.5 (±2.3) % yr-1. A comparison of the satellite data with station data indicates that the trends derived from both sources show substantial differences on the station scale, i.e., when comparing a station trend directly with the equivalent satellite-derived trend at the same location, but provide quite similar large-scale spatial patterns. Finally, the SCIAMACHY-derived NO2 trends are compared with equivalent trends in NO2concentration computed using the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) model. The results show that the spatial patterns in trends computed from both data sources mostly agree in Central and Western Europe, whereas substantial differences

  17. The Trend Odds Model for Ordinal Data‡

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capuano, Ana W.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.

    2013-01-01

    Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values (Peterson and Harrell, 1990). We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, where the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc Nlmixed, and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical dataset is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a Swine Influenza example where the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. PMID:23225520

  18. The trend odds model for ordinal data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capuano, Ana W; Dawson, Jeffrey D

    2013-06-15

    Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values. We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, wherein the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc NLMIXED and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical data set is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a swine influenza example wherein the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

    2015-05-01

    Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Online Marketing Trends

    OpenAIRE

    Horecká, Ivana

    2015-01-01

    This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

  1. Dietary trends in the Middle East and North Africa: an ecological study (1961 to 2007).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golzarand, Mahdieh; Mirmiran, Parvin; Jessri, Mahsa; Toolabi, Karamollah; Mojarrad, Mehdi; Azizi, Fereidoun

    2012-10-01

    Middle Eastern and North African countries are undergoing nutrition transition, a transition which is associated with an increased burden of non-communicable diseases. This necessitates the evaluation of dietary patterns in these regions. The present study aimed to assess changes in dietary patterns in Middle Eastern and North African countries between 1961 and 2007. Availability of energy and fifteen main food items during 1961-2007 was examined using FAO food balance sheets from the FAOSTAT database. Fifteen countries including nine in the Middle East and six in North Africa were selected and the average availability of total energy and different food items in these regions were compared. Over the 47 years studied, energy and food availability (apart from animal fats and alcoholic beverages) has increased in the Middle East and North Africa. In both regions the proportion of energy derived from meat and vegetable oils has increased significantly while that from cereals decreased significantly. In addition, the proportion of energy from milk and dairy products and vegetables has shown an ascending trend in North Africa while the proportion of energy from fruits has shown a descending trend in the Middle East. The study results reveal an unfavourable trend towards a Westernized diet in the Middle East and, to a certain extent, in North Africa. Tailored nutritional education encouraging healthy eating for prevention of the burden of chronic diseases in these countries seems essential.

  2. A decreasing trend in fall-related hip fracture incidence in Victoria, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassell, E; Clapperton, A

    2013-01-01

    In Victoria, Australia, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased significantly by 25% over the period 1998/1999-2008/2009. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people. The study aim was to investigate trends in the incidence of fall-related and hip fracture hospitalisations among Victorians aged 65 years and older overall and by age, gender, country of birth, socio-economic status (SES) and location of the event (home, residential care institution, etc.) over the 11-year period 1998/1999 to 2008/2009. Annual counts and age-standardised rates for fall-related hospitalisations among people aged 65 years and older were estimated using Victorian hospital admissions data. The statistical significance of changes in trends over time were analysed using a log-linear regression model of the rate data assuming a Poisson distribution of cases. Although the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations increased significantly by 13% (95% confidence interval [CI], 9% to 18%) in Victoria, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hip fracture hospitalisations decreased from 600/100,000 in 1998/1999 to 467/100,000 in 2008/2009 - an estimated overall reduction of 25% (95% CI, -29% to -22%). By contrast, the age-standardised incidence of fall-related hospitalisations for fractures at other body sites either increased significantly or showed no significant change. Significant decreases in fall-related hip fractures were observed in both males and females, across all 5-year age groups, in both Australian-born and overseas-born Victorians, in all socio-economic quintiles and in community-dwelling older people but not in people living in residential care facilities. Despite the downward trend in the age-standardised incidence of

  3. Technological trends in energy industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin Moyano, R.

    1995-01-01

    According to the usual meaning, technological trends are determined by main companies and leading countries with capacity for the development and marketing of technology. Presently, those trends are addressed to: the development of cleaner and more efficient process for fossil fuels utilization (atmospheric and pressurized fluidized beds, integrated gasification in combined cycle, advanced combined cycles, etc), the development of safer and more economic nuclear reactors; the efficiency increase in both generation and utilisation of energy, including demand side management and distribution automation; and the reduction of cost of renewable energies. Singular points of these trends are: the progress in communication technologies (optical fibre, trucking systems, etc.); the fuel cells; the supercritical boilers; the passive reactors; the nuclear fusion; the superconductivity; etc. Spain belongs to the developed countries but suffer of certain technology shortages that places it in a special situation. (Author)

  4. Incidence Trend and Epidemiology of Common Cancers in the Center of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiemanesh, Hosein; Rajaei-Behbahani, Narjes; Khani, Yousef; Hosseini, Sayedehafagh; Pournamdar, Zahra; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Soltani, Shahin; Hosseini, Seyedeh Akram; Khazaei, Salman; Salehiniya, Hamid

    2015-07-13

    Cancer is a major public health problem in Iran and many other parts of the world. The cancer incidence is different in various countries and in country provinces. Geographical differences in the cancer incidence lead to be important to conduct an epidemiological study of the disease. This study aimed to investigate cancer epidemiology and trend in the province of Qom, located in center of Iran. This is an analytical cross-sectional study carried out based on re-analysis cancer registry report and the disease management center of health ministry from 2004 to 2008 in the province of Qom. To describe incidence time trends, we carried out join point regression analysis using the software Join point Regression Program, Version 4.1.1.1. There were 3,029 registered cases of cancer during 5 years studied. Sex ratio was 1.32 (male to female). Considering the frequency and mean standardized incidence, the most common cancer in women were breast, skin, colorectal, stomach, and esophagus, respectively while in men the most common cancers included skin, stomach, colorectal, bladder, and prostate, respectively. There was an increasing and significant trend, according to the annual percentage change (APC) equal to 8.08% (CI: 5.1-11.1) for all site cancer in women. The incidence trend of all cancers was increasing in this area. Hence, planning for identifying risk factors and performing programs for dealing with the disease are essential.

  5. Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen L. Durden

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A number of recent publications have examined trends in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones in various basins. In this communication, the author focuses on typhoons in the western North Pacific. Rather than maximum wind speed, the intensity of the storms is measured by their lifetime minimum sea level pressure (MSLP. Quantile regression is used to test for trends in storms of extreme intensity. The results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing intensity in the most intense storms as measured by MSLP over the period 1951–2010. However, when the data are broken into intervals 1951–1987 and 1987–2010, neither interval has a significant trend, but the intensity quantiles for the two periods differ. Reasons for this are discussed, including the cessation of aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. The author also finds that the average typhoon intensity is greater in El Nino years, while the intensity of the strongest typhoons shows no significant relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation.

  6. Labour force activity after 65: what explain recent trends in Denmark, Germany and Sweden?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Mona; Pedersen, Peder J

    2017-01-01

    In most OECD member countries labour force attachment, has increased in recent years not only in the age groups 60-64 years but also among people 65 years and older. Focus in this paper is on the trend in older workers' labour force participation in Denmark, Germany and Sweden since 2004. Main emphasis is given to people aged 65-69 years eligible for social security retirement programs from age 65. The gender aspect is included to accommodate different trends for women and men. To explain country differences in trends, the importance of changes in retirement policies of relevance for this age group and cohort relevant changes in education and health is examined and discussed. Further, country differences in the impact from education and health is examined. Results show that the largest increase in labour force participation among people aged 65-69 years has taken place in Sweden following by Germany, while the increase in Denmark is rather small. While the increase in Germany mainly seems to be a result of policy reforms, the increase in Sweden appear to be a result of a combination of policy changes and an increasing educational level. Financial incentives seem most important in Germany and only of minor importance in Denmark, where policy changes directed towards individuals above the age of 65 appear to have been too small so far to affect retirement behaviour significantly.

  7. Area-level risk factors for adverse birth outcomes: trends in urban and rural settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Shia T; McClure, Leslie A; Zaitchik, Ben F; Gohlke, Julia M

    2013-06-10

    Significant and persistent racial and income disparities in birth outcomes exist in the US. The analyses in this manuscript examine whether adverse birth outcome time trends and associations between area-level variables and adverse birth outcomes differ by urban-rural status. Alabama births records were merged with ZIP code-level census measures of race, poverty, and rurality. B-splines were used to determine long-term preterm birth (PTB) and low birth weight (LBW) trends by rurality. Logistic regression models were used to examine differences in the relationships between ZIP code-level percent poverty or percent African-American with either PTB or LBW. Interactions with rurality were examined. Population dense areas had higher adverse birth outcome rates compared to other regions. For LBW, the disparity between population dense and other regions increased during the 1991-2005 time period, and the magnitude of the disparity was maintained through 2010. Overall PTB and LBW rates have decreased since 2006, except within isolated rural regions. The addition of individual-level socioeconomic or race risk factors greatly attenuated these geographical disparities, but isolated rural regions maintained increased odds of adverse birth outcomes. ZIP code-level percent poverty and percent African American both had significant relationships with adverse birth outcomes. Poverty associations remained significant in the most population-dense regions when models were adjusted for individual-level risk factors. Population dense urban areas have heightened rates of adverse birth outcomes. High-poverty African American areas have higher odds of adverse birth outcomes in urban versus rural regions. These results suggest there are urban-specific social or environmental factors increasing risk for adverse birth outcomes in underserved communities. On the other hand, trends in PTBs and LBWs suggest interventions that have decreased adverse birth outcomes elsewhere may not be reaching

  8. Review and meta-analysis of trends in precipitation regime in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, Enrica; Chiarello, Valentina; Defina, Ilaria; Fatichi, Simone

    2017-04-01

    Research to detect changes in climatic variables has become a topic of particular interest to observe signals of climate change as well as to understand drivers of modifications in water resources availability and suggest management adaptations. We specifically focus on Italy, outlining the "state of the art" of the Italian precipitation regime through a review of 46 published studies on rainfall trend analyses. The aim is to combine a large body of knowledge in a single review and to explain the main patterns of rainfall changes occurred in the last decades. The review results are analyzed for the entire Italian peninsula and separately for three macro areas: North, Central and South&Islands. The attention is focused on three indexes at the annual and seasonal scale: mean Total Precipitation (TP), number of Wet Days (WDs) and Precipitation Intensity (PI). Two other aspects are briefly investigated: drought and extreme rainfall events. Different geographic areas, time series length and number of stations, are taken into account using a "weight factor Fi". Subsequently, for each index, findings in terms of increasing or decreasing trends are collected into five principal categories: Negative (N), Negative Significant (NS), Positive (P), Positive Significant (PS), and No Trend (NT). Overall, there is an agreement about the tendency of the WDs that are decreasing on the whole Italy, with some discrepancies regarding the spring and the summer seasons. This is substantially in agreement with the tendency of the TP, especially at annual scale where the presence of a decreasing trend is detected. An opposite behavior is detected for PI, which increases both on an annual and on a seasonal basis. It is worth to point out that PI is analyzed just in few studies and it is strongly influenced on the classification in precipitation intensity intervals. A general finding is that signal to noise ratio on precipitation metrics is quite low, which hampers a clear definition of

  9. Ten major trends now emerging in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Naisbitt, J.

    1978-01-01

    Using a special analytical procedure for tracking and assessing events reported in the nation's newspapers, the Center for Policy Process has identified ten emerging trends in the United States that are having a major impact on all our lives and on all businesses and industries--and especially on the electric utility industry. Although the trends may move in contradictory directions and have different degrees of significance, all have been carefully monitored for a considerable length of time. All are firmly established--and are not to be viewed as the momentary interests of certain radical elements of the population. The ten trends are: the fast-emerging clash between nuclear fuel and coal as an environmental health issue; displacement of racism and sexism by ''ageism'' as society's most prominent anti-discrimination preoccupation, and the complete elimination soon of mandatory retirement; in government and technology, the phenomenon of ''appropriate scale'' replacing economies of scale, emergence of single-issue political organizations; coming-of-age of the recycling ethic; emergence of ''access to capital'' as the new equity issue--the new rights issue; continuing shift from centralization to decentralization; movement of society in the dual directions of high technology/high touch; business' increasing involvement with the well-established accountability trend; and shift from a representative democracy to a participatory democracy--this profound change in American democracy actually began about a decade or so ago.

  10. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arismendi, Ivan; Johnson, Sherri; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy; Hockman-Wert, David

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations (1987-2009) exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-termdata on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future.

  11. Introducing extra NADPH consumption ability significantly increases the photosynthetic efficiency and biomass production of cyanobacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jie; Zhang, Fuliang; Meng, Hengkai; Zhang, Yanping; Li, Yin

    2016-11-01

    Increasing photosynthetic efficiency is crucial to increasing biomass production to meet the growing demands for food and energy. Previous theoretical arithmetic analysis suggests that the light reactions and dark reactions are imperfectly coupled due to shortage of ATP supply, or accumulation of NADPH. Here we hypothesized that solely increasing NADPH consumption might improve the coupling of light reactions and dark reactions, thereby increasing the photosynthetic efficiency and biomass production. To test this hypothesis, an NADPH consumption pathway was constructed in cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803. The resulting extra NADPH-consuming mutant grew much faster and achieved a higher biomass concentration. Analyses of photosynthesis characteristics showed the activities of photosystem II and photosystem I and the light saturation point of the NADPH-consuming mutant all significantly increased. Thus, we demonstrated that introducing extra NADPH consumption ability is a promising strategy to increase photosynthetic efficiency and to enable utilization of high-intensity lights. Copyright © 2016 International Metabolic Engineering Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Sediment load trends in the Magdalena River basin (1980-2010): Anthropogenic and climate-induced causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Restrepo, Juan D.; Escobar, Heber A.

    2018-02-01

    The Colombian Andes and its main river basin, the Magdalena, have witnessed dramatic changes in land cover and further forest loss during the last three decades. For the Magdalena River, human activities appear to have played a more prominent role compared to rainfall (climate change) to mobilize sediment. However, environmental authorities in Colombia argue that climate change is the main trigger of erosion and floods experienced during the last decade. Here we present the first regional exercise addressing the following: (1) what are the observed trends of sediment load in the northern Andes during the last three decades? and (2) are sediment load trends in agreement with tendencies in land use change and climate (e.g., precipitation)? We perform Mann-Kendall tests on sediment load series for 21 main tributary systems during the 1980-2010 period. These gauging stations represent 77% of the whole Magdalena basin area. The last decade has been a period of increased pulses in sediment transport as seen by the statistical significant trends in load. Overall, six subcatchments, representing 55% of the analyzed Magdalena basin area, have witnessed increasing trends in sediment load. Also, some major tributaries have experienced changes in their interannual mean sediment flux during the mid- 1990s and 2005. Further analysis of land cover change (e.g., deforestation) indicates that the basin has undergone considerable change. Forest cover decreased by 40% over the period of study, while the area under agriculture and pasture cover (agricultural lands 1 and 2) increased by 65%. The highest peak of forest loss on record in the Magdalena basin, 5106 km2 or 24% of the combined deforestation in Colombia, occurred during the 2005-2010 period. In contrast, Mann-Kendall tests on rainfall series for 61 stations reveal that precipitation shows no regional signs of increasing trends. Also, increasing trends in sediment load match quite well with the marked increase in forest

  13. Assessment of trends in inundation extent in the Barotse Floodplain, upper Zambezi River Basin: A remote sensing-based approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henry Zimba

    2018-02-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The results revealed that there is observable inter-annual variability in inundation extent in the Barotse Floodplain with prominent differences demonstrated in both the flood ascending/peak and receding period. For the period 2003–2013 the results indicated a rising trend in inundation extent with a Mann–Kendall Z statistic of 1.71 and increase in magnitude of 33.1 km2 at significance level alpha of 0.05. Strong correlations between inundation extent and water level and between inundation extent and discharge with correlation coefficients of determination of 0.86 and 0.89 respectively were observed. For the period 2000–2011 water level time series showed a rising trend with the Mann–Kendall Z statistic of 2.97 and increase in magnitude of 0.1 m at significance level alpha of 0.05. Overall, during the period 1952–2004 discharge in the floodplain showed a declining trend with Mann–Kendall Z statistics of −2.88 and −3.38 at the inlet and outlet of the floodplain respectively. By correlation inference, the overall inundation extent trend in the floodplain was in a downward movement. Rainfall and discharge variability, high evapotranspiration and the changes in the land cover-use in the catchment of the floodplain are largely the factors affecting the observed variability and trends in inundation extent in the floodplain. The presented remote sensing based approach significantly reduces the need for the expensive and time limiting traditional physical field based wetland inundation mapping methods that form a limitation for achieving progress in wetland monitoring especially in open and sparsely gauged floodplains such as the Barotse.

  14. Explaining NDVI trends in northern Burkina Faso

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Kjeld; Fensholt, Rasmus; Fog, Bjarne

    2014-01-01

    by a distinct spatial pattern and strongly dominated by negative trends in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The aim of the paper is to explain this distinct pattern. When studied over the period 2000–2012, using NDVI data from the MODIS sensor the spatial pattern of NDVI trends indicates that non......-climatic factors are involved. By relating NDVI trends to landscape elements and land use change we demonstrate that NDVI trends in the north-western parts of the study area are mostly related to landscape elements, while this is not the case in the south-eastern parts, where rapidly changing land use, including....... expansion of irrigation, plays a major role. It is inferred that a process of increased redistribution of fine soil material, water and vegetation from plateaus and slopes to valleys, possibly related to higher grazing pressure, may provide an explanation of the observed pattern of NDVI trends. Further work...

  15. Trends in clinical diagnoses of Rocky Mountain spotted fever among American Indians, 2001-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folkema, Arianne M; Holman, Robert C; McQuiston, Jennifer H; Cheek, James E

    2012-01-01

    American Indians are at greater risk for Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) than the general U.S. population. The epidemiology of RMSF among American Indians was examined by using Indian Health Service inpatient and outpatient records with an RMSF International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification diagnosis. For 2001-2008, 958 American Indian patients with clinical diagnoses of RMSF were reported. The average annual RMSF incidence was 94.6 per 1,000,000 persons, with a significant increasing incidence trend from 24.2 in 2001 to 139.4 in 2008 (P = 0.006). Most (89%) RMSF hospital visits occurred in the Southern Plains and Southwest regions, where the average annual incidence rates were 277.2 and 49.4, respectively. Only the Southwest region had a significant increasing incidence trend (P = 0.005), likely linked to the emergence of brown dog ticks as an RMSF vector in eastern Arizona. It is important to continue monitoring RMSF infection to inform public health interventions that target RMSF reduction in high-risk populations.

  16. Quantification of Impact of Orbital Drift on Inter-Annual Trends in AVHRR NDVI Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jyoteshwar R. Nagol

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time-series data derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR have been extensively used for studying inter-annual dynamics of global and regional vegetation. However, there can be significant uncertainties in the data due to incomplete atmospheric correction and orbital drift of the satellites through their active life. Access to location specific quantification of uncertainty is crucial for appropriate evaluation of the trends and anomalies. This paper provides per pixel quantification of orbital drift related spurious trends in Long Term Data Record (LTDR AVHRR NDVI data product. The magnitude and direction of the spurious trends was estimated by direct comparison with data from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Aqua instrument, which has stable inter-annual sun-sensor geometry. The maps show presence of both positive as well as negative spurious trends in the data. After application of the BRDF correction, an overall decrease in positive trends and an increase in number of pixels with negative spurious trends were observed. The mean global spurious inter-annual NDVI trend before and after BRDF correction was 0.0016 and −0.0017 respectively. The research presented in this paper gives valuable insight into the magnitude of orbital drift related trends in the AVHRR NDVI data as well as the degree to which it is being rectified by the MODIS BRDF correction algorithm used by the LTDR processing stream.

  17. Rapidly Increasing Trend of Recorded Alcohol Consumption Since the End of the Armed Conflict in Sri Lanka.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugawela, Manjula D; Lewis, Sarah; Szatkowski, Lisa; Langley, Tessa

    2017-09-01

    To evaluate temporal changes in recorded alcohol consumption in Sri Lanka during and after the armed conflict 1998-2013. District level alcohol sales, and mid-year population data for the whole study period (1998-2013) were consistently available from the Department of Excise and the Department of Census and Statistics for 18 of 25 districts. These data were used to estimate the recorded per capita consumption for the areas that were not directly exposed to the armed conflict. An interrupted time series design was employed to estimate the impact of the end of the armed conflict on recorded adult per capita alcohol consumption of population lived in the 18 districts. Adult per capita recorded alcohol consumption among Sri Lankans living in the 18 districts was 1.59 l of pure alcohol in 1998. This increased up to 2.07 l in 2009 and 2.55 l in 2013. Prior to the end of the conflict in 2009 adult per capita recorded consumption increased by 0.051 l of pure alcohol per year (95% CI: 0.029-0.074, P increased markedly after the end of the conflict. Rapid socio-economic development, alcohol industry penetration and lack of alcohol control strategies during the post-conflict period may have driven this increase. Adult per capita recorded alcohol consumption among Sri Lankans living in 18 districts that were not directly exposed to the armed conflict increased markedly after the end of the conflict in 2009, with a dramatic acceleration in the trend of per capita beer consumption. © The Author 2017. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  18. Trends and correlates of marijuana use among late middle-aged and older adults in the United States, 2002-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Vaughn, Michael G; Cummings-Vaughn, Lenise A; Holzer, Katherine J; Nelson, Erik J; AbiNader, Millan; Oh, Sehun

    2017-02-01

    Recent trend studies suggest that marijuana use is on the rise among the general population of adults ages 18 and older in the United States. However, little is known about the trends in marijuana use and marijuana-specific risk/protective factors among American adults during the latter part of adulthood. Findings are based on repeated, cross-sectional data collected from late middle-aged (ages 50-64) and older adults (ages 65 and older) surveyed as part of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health between 2002 and 2014. The prevalence of past-year marijuana use among late middle-aged adults increased significantly from a low of 2.95% in 2003 to a high of 9.08% in 2014. Similarly, the prevalence of marijuana use increased significantly among older adults from a low of 0.15% in 2003 to a high of 2.04% in 2014. Notably, the upward trends in marijuana use remained significant even when accounting for sociodemographic, substance use, behavioral, and health-related factors. We also found that decreases in marijuana-specific protective factors were associated with the observed trend changes in marijuana use among late middle-aged and older adults, and observed a weakening of the association between late-middle aged marijuana use and risk propensity, other illicit drug use, and criminal justice system involvement over the course of the study. Findings from the present study provide robust evidence indicating that marijuana use among older Americans has increased markedly in recent years, with the most evident changes observed between 2008 and 2014. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Is the global mean temperature trend too low?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Lindau, Ralf

    2015-04-01

    with global datasets can provide some indication on biases. Compared to the global BEST dataset for the same countries, the national datasets of Austria, Italy and Switzerland have a 0.36°C per century stronger trend since 1901. For the trend since 1960 we can also take Australia, France and Slovenia into account and find a trend bias of 0.40°C per century. Relative to CRUCY the trend biases are smaller and only statistically significant for the period since 1980. The most direct way to study biases in the temperature records is by making parallel measurements with historical measurement set-ups. Several recent parallel data studies for the transition to Stevenson screens suggest larger biases: Austria 0.2°C, Spain 0.5 & 0.6°C. As well as older tropical ones: India 0.42°C and Sri Lanka 0.37°C. The smaller values from the Parker (1994) review mainly stem from parallel measurements from North-West Europe, which may have less problems with exposure. Furthermore, the influence of many historical transitions, especially the ones that could cause an artificial smaller trend, have not been studied in detail yet. We urgently need to study improvements of exposure (especially in the (sub-)tropics), increases in watering and irrigation, mechanical ventilation, better paints, relocations to airports, and relocations to suburbs of stations that started in the cities and from village centers to pasture, for example. Our current understanding surprisingly suggests that the more recent period may have the largest biases, but it could also be that even the best datasets are unable to improve earlier data sufficiently. If the temperature trend were actually larger it would reduce discrepancies between studies for a number of problems in climatology. For example, the estimates of transient climate sensitivity using instrumental data are lower as the one using climate models, volcanic eruptions or paleo data. Furthermore, several changes observed in the climate system are larger

  20. Innovations and trends in meat consumption: an application of the Delphi method in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamorro, Antonio; Miranda, Francisco J; Rubio, Sergio; Valero, Víctor

    2012-12-01

    The meat sector in Spain is an important industry. However, traditional consumption is changing as a result of the country's economic crisis and the new structure of households. The objective of the present study was to identify trends in meat consumption in Spain extrapolated to 2016, and the main innovations that should be of interest to firms in the sector. The study was conducted in 2011 using the Delphi method with the participation of 26 experts. The results showed that, while the demand for meat will not vary significantly in amount, it will do so in composition, with chicken replacing beef as the meat of most importance in the shopping basket. In addition, significant growth is expected in certified meat, but the demand for organic meat will not take off. Neither will there be no significant changes in end purchase formats, but there will be a clear trend in consumers' purchasing decision criteria away from price, external appearance and origin towards quality certification and the attributes of the packaging. With respect to end purchase channels, the experts estimate that the current trend will be accentuated with increasing market share for large supermarkets and major distribution brands. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.