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Sample records for significantly higher likelihood

  1. Competitive Intelligence: Significance in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, Susan E.

    2010-01-01

    Historically noncompetitive, the higher education sector is now having to adjust dramatically to new and increasing demands on numerous levels. To remain successfully operational within the higher educational market universities today must consider all relevant forces which can impact present and future planning. Those institutions that were…

  2. 8 CFR 241.13 - Determination of whether there is a significant likelihood of removing a detained alien in the...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... described in paragraph (a) of this section for whom it has determined that special circumstances exist and... alien's belief that there is no significant likelihood that the alien will be removed in the reasonably... alien's removal as ordered, or removal to a third country, should circumstances change in the future...

  3. Undernutrition among adults in India: the significance of individual-level and contextual factors impacting on the likelihood of underweight across sub-populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqui, Md Zakaria; Donato, Ronald

    2017-01-01

    To investigate the extent to which individual-level as well as macro-level contextual factors influence the likelihood of underweight across adult sub-populations in India. Population-based cross-sectional survey included in India's National Health Family Survey conducted in 2005-06. We disaggregated into eight sub-populations. Multistage nationally representative household survey covering 99 % of India's population. The survey covered 124 385 females aged 15-49 years and 74 369 males aged 15-54 years. A social gradient in underweight exists in India. Even after allowing for wealth status, differences in the predicted probability of underweight persisted based upon rurality, age/maturity and gender. We found individual-level education lowered the likelihood of underweight for males, but no statistical association for females. Paradoxically, rural young (15-24 years) females from more educated villages had a higher likelihood of underweight relative to those in less educated villages; but for rural mature (>24 years) females the opposite was the case. Christians had a significantly lower likelihood of underweight relative to other socio-religious groups (OR=0·53-0·80). Higher state-level inequality increased the likelihood of underweight across most population groups, while neighbourhood inequality exhibited a similar relationship for the rural young population subgroups only. Individual states/neighbourhoods accounted for 5-9 % of the variation in the prediction of underweight. We found that rural young females represent a particularly highly vulnerable sub-population. Economic growth alone is unlikely to reduce the burden of malnutrition in India; accordingly, policy makers need to address the broader social determinants that contribute to higher underweight prevalence in specific demographic subgroups.

  4. An Estimate of the Likelihood for a Climatically Significant Volcanic Eruption Within the Present Decade (2000-2009)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.; Franklin, M. Rose (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (i.e., those having a volcanic explosivity index, or VEI, equal to 4 or larger) per decade is found to span 2-11, with 96% located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere, A two-point moving average of the time series has higher values since the 1860s than before, measuring 8.00 in the 1910s (the highest value) and measuring 6.50 in the 1980s, the highest since the 18 1 0s' peak. On the basis of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that the two-point moving average for the 1990s will measure about 6.50 +/- 1.00, implying that about 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially, those having VEI equal to 5 or larger) nearly always have been associated with episodes of short-term global cooling, the occurrence of even one could ameliorate the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more VEI equal to 4 or larger events occurring within the next ten years is >99%, while it is about 49% for VEI equal to 5 or larger events and 18% for VEI equal to 6 or larger events. Hence, the likelihood that a, climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next 10 years appears reasonably high.

  5. Prognostic significance of normal quantitative Tl-201 stress scintigraphy in relation to pretest likelihood of coronary artery disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russo, D.J.; Russo, D.; Clements, J.; Wackers, F.

    1984-01-01

    A previous study reported an excellent prognosis and low cardiac event rate in patients(pts) with chest pain and normal quantitative T1-201 scintigraphy(SC). Such result would not be unexpected if the population under study had a predominance of pts with low pre-T1-201 likelihood(L) of significant coronary artery disease (CAD). Hence, the authors undertook telephone follow-up in pts with chest pain syndrome and normal quantitative T1-201 exercise SC, and related outcome to pretest L of CAD. Pretest L was determined by serial L analysis on the basis of: symptoms, age, sex, and exercise ECG. All pts had T1-201 SC immediately post exercise and 2 hrs later. After interpolative background correction, circumferential count and washout profiles were generated. All pts had unequivocally normal studies. Of a total of 96 pts studied in 1981-82, 20 pts were lost to follow-up. Of the remaining 76 pts, 45 were males and 31 females. The pretest L of CAD had an inverted Gaussian distribution: thirty-four pts(47%) had 66% L of CAD. Mean follow-up was 22+- 3 months. No deaths occurred. Two pts(3%) (with pretest L of 54% and 94%) had myocardial infarctions, 8 and 22 months respectively after T1-201 stress SC. One pt underwent percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) 16 months after T1-201 stress SC. These findings confirm excellent prognostic significance of normal quantitative T1-201 stress scintigraphy

  6. Induced abortion is not associated with a higher likelihood of depression in Curaçao women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boersma, Adriana A; van den Berg, Desirée; van Lunsen, Rik H W; Laan, Ellen T M

    2014-10-01

    To investigate the risk of developing a depression after induced abortion. A prospective cohort study conducted in Curaçao which involved 92 women having an induced abortion and 37 women delivering after an unplanned or unwanted pregnancy, who served as controls. All participants completed the Center of Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) scale before and two to three weeks after the abortion or delivery. Following the abortion, significantly fewer women were at risk of depression (30%) as compared to when still pregnant (60%). Mean depression scores were significantly lower after- than before the procedure. The likelihood of depression post-abortum (30%) was similar to that after delivery of an unplanned/unwanted child (22%). Even though women in the abortion group more often reported having suffered from depression in the past than controls, they were not at greater risk of depression after their pregnancy had ended. Curaçao women's risk of developing a depression following an (early) induced abortion is not greater than that after carrying to term an unplanned/unwanted pregnancy. We recommend that the results of this study be taken into account in case the Curaçao government should consider legalisation of induced abortion in the near future.

  7. An Estimation of the Likelihood of Significant Eruptions During 2000-2009 Using Poisson Statistics on Two-Point Moving Averages of the Volcanic Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robert M.

    2001-01-01

    Since 1750, the number of cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (volcanic explosivity index (VEI)>=4) per decade spans 2-11, with 96 percent located in the tropics and extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere. A two-point moving average of the volcanic time series has higher values since the 1860's than before, being 8.00 in the 1910's (the highest value) and 6.50 in the 1980's, the highest since the 1910's peak. Because of the usual behavior of the first difference of the two-point moving averages, one infers that its value for the 1990's will measure approximately 6.50 +/- 1, implying that approximately 7 +/- 4 cataclysmic volcanic eruptions should be expected during the present decade (2000-2009). Because cataclysmic volcanic eruptions (especially those having VEI>=5) nearly always have been associated with short-term episodes of global cooling, the occurrence of even one might confuse our ability to assess the effects of global warming. Poisson probability distributions reveal that the probability of one or more events with a VEI>=4 within the next ten years is >99 percent. It is approximately 49 percent for an event with a VEI>=5, and 18 percent for an event with a VEI>=6. Hence, the likelihood that a climatically significant volcanic eruption will occur within the next ten years appears reasonably high.

  8. Higher educational attainment associated with reduced likelihood of abnormal cervical lesions among Zambian women - a cross sectional study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamoonga, Twaambo Euphemia; Likwa, Rosemary Ndonyo; Musonda, Patrick; Michelo, Charles

    2017-10-13

    The high burden of cervical cancer in Zambia prompted the Ministry of Health and partners to develop the cervical cancer prevention program in Zambia (CCPPZ) in 2006. Despite this intervention more women continue to die from the disease and there is little understanding of factors that may be linked with abnormal cervical lesions in the general population. We therefore examined if educational attainment is associated with abnormal cervical lesions among Zambian women aged 15 to 49 years. This study used data from the cervical cancer prevention program in Zambia, where a total of 14,294 women aged 15 to 49 years were screened for cervical cancer at nine health facilities between October 2013 and September 2014. The data represents women from six provinces of Zambia, namely Southern, Central, Copperbelt, Luapula, North-western and Eastern provinces. Step-wise logistic regression analysis using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 21 was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for educational attainment with presence of abnormal cervical lesions as outcome. Multiple imputation was further used to obtain the imputed stabilized estimates for educational attainment. The prevalence of abnormal cervical lesions, using the Visual Inspection with Acetic-acid (VIA) test was 10.7% (n = 1523). Educational attainment was inversely associated with abnormal cervical lesions (AOR = 0.75; 95% CI:0.70-0.81, AOR = 0.74; 95% CI:0.68-0.81 and AOR = 0.46; 95% CI:0.41-0.51) among women with primary, secondary and tertiary education, respectively, compared to those with no formal education. We find reduced likelihood of abnormal cervical lesions in educated women, suggesting a differential imbalance with women who have no formal education. These findings may be a reflection of inequalities associated with access to cervical cancer screening, making the service inadequately accessible for lower educated groups. This

  9. Empirical likelihood

    CERN Document Server

    Owen, Art B

    2001-01-01

    Empirical likelihood provides inferences whose validity does not depend on specifying a parametric model for the data. Because it uses a likelihood, the method has certain inherent advantages over resampling methods: it uses the data to determine the shape of the confidence regions, and it makes it easy to combined data from multiple sources. It also facilitates incorporating side information, and it simplifies accounting for censored, truncated, or biased sampling.One of the first books published on the subject, Empirical Likelihood offers an in-depth treatment of this method for constructing confidence regions and testing hypotheses. The author applies empirical likelihood to a range of problems, from those as simple as setting a confidence region for a univariate mean under IID sampling, to problems defined through smooth functions of means, regression models, generalized linear models, estimating equations, or kernel smooths, and to sampling with non-identically distributed data. Abundant figures offer vi...

  10. Approximate Likelihood

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    Most physics results at the LHC end in a likelihood ratio test. This includes discovery and exclusion for searches as well as mass, cross-section, and coupling measurements. The use of Machine Learning (multivariate) algorithms in HEP is mainly restricted to searches, which can be reduced to classification between two fixed distributions: signal vs. background. I will show how we can extend the use of ML classifiers to distributions parameterized by physical quantities like masses and couplings as well as nuisance parameters associated to systematic uncertainties. This allows for one to approximate the likelihood ratio while still using a high dimensional feature vector for the data. Both the MEM and ABC approaches mentioned above aim to provide inference on model parameters (like cross-sections, masses, couplings, etc.). ABC is fundamentally tied Bayesian inference and focuses on the “likelihood free” setting where only a simulator is available and one cannot directly compute the likelihood for the dat...

  11. Women’s higher likelihood of disability pension: the role of health, family and work. A 5–7 years follow-up of the Hordaland Health Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Women’s higher risk of disability pension compared with men is found in countries with high female work participation and universal welfare schemes. The aim of the study was to examine the extent to which self-perceived health, family situation and work factors explain women’s higher risk of disability pension. We also explored how these factors influenced the gender difference across educational strata. Methods The population-based Hordaland Health Study (HUSK) was conducted in 1997–99 and included inhabitants born in 1953–57 in Hordaland County, Norway. The current study included 5,959 men and 6,306 women in paid work with valid information on education and self-perceived health. Follow-up data on disability pension, for a period of 5–7 years, was obtained by linking the health survey to a national registry of disability pension. Cox regression analyses were employed. Results During the follow-up period 99 (1.7%) men and 230 (3.6%) women were awarded disability pension, giving a twofold risk of disability pension for women compared with men. Except for a moderate impact of self-perceived health, adjustment for family situation and work factors did not influence the gender difference in risk. Repeating the analyses in strata of education, the gender difference in risk of disability pension among the highly educated was fully explained by self-perceived health and work factors. In the lower strata of education there remained a substantial unexplained gender difference in risk. Conclusions In a Norwegian cohort of middle-aged men and women, self-perceived health, family situation and work factors could not explain women’s higher likelihood of disability pension. However, analyses stratified by educational level indicate that mechanisms behind the gender gap in disability pension differ by educational levels. Recognizing the heterogeneity within gender may contribute to a deeper understanding of women’s higher risk of disability pension. PMID

  12. Women's higher likelihood of disability pension: the role of health, family and work. A 5-7 years follow-up of the Hordaland Health Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haukenes, Inger; Gjesdal, Sturla; Rortveit, Guri; Riise, Trond; Maeland, John Gunnar

    2012-08-31

    Women's higher risk of disability pension compared with men is found in countries with high female work participation and universal welfare schemes. The aim of the study was to examine the extent to which self-perceived health, family situation and work factors explain women's higher risk of disability pension. We also explored how these factors influenced the gender difference across educational strata. The population-based Hordaland Health Study (HUSK) was conducted in 1997-99 and included inhabitants born in 1953-57 in Hordaland County, Norway. The current study included 5,959 men and 6,306 women in paid work with valid information on education and self-perceived health. Follow-up data on disability pension, for a period of 5-7 years, was obtained by linking the health survey to a national registry of disability pension. Cox regression analyses were employed. During the follow-up period 99 (1.7%) men and 230 (3.6%) women were awarded disability pension, giving a twofold risk of disability pension for women compared with men. Except for a moderate impact of self-perceived health, adjustment for family situation and work factors did not influence the gender difference in risk. Repeating the analyses in strata of education, the gender difference in risk of disability pension among the highly educated was fully explained by self-perceived health and work factors. In the lower strata of education there remained a substantial unexplained gender difference in risk. In a Norwegian cohort of middle-aged men and women, self-perceived health, family situation and work factors could not explain women's higher likelihood of disability pension. However, analyses stratified by educational level indicate that mechanisms behind the gender gap in disability pension differ by educational levels. Recognizing the heterogeneity within gender may contribute to a deeper understanding of women's higher risk of disability pension.

  13. Significantly higher Carabid beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) catch in conventionally than in organically managed Christmas tree plantations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bagge, Søren; Lund, Malthe; Rønn, Regin

    2012-01-01

    Carabid beetles play an important role as consumers of pest organisms in forestry and agriculture. Application of pesticides may negatively affect abundance and activity of carabid beetles, thus reducing their potential beneficial effect. We investigated how abundance and diversity of pitfall...... trapped carabid beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae) varied between conventionally and organically managed Caucasian Fir (Abies nordmanniana (Stev.)) plantations, in northern Zealand, Denmark. We recorded significantly higher numbers of carabid beetle specimens and species at conventionally than at organically...

  14. The prevalence of coeliac disease is significantly higher in children compared with adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariné, M; Farre, C; Alsina, M; Vilar, P; Cortijo, M; Salas, A; Fernández-Bañares, F; Rosinach, M; Santaolalla, R; Loras, C; Marquès, T; Cusí, V; Hernández, M I; Carrasco, A; Ribes, J; Viver, J M; Esteve, M

    2011-02-01

    Some limited studies of coeliac disease have shown higher frequency of coeliac disease in infancy and adolescence than in adulthood. This finding has remained unnoticed and not adequately demonstrated. To assess whether there are age and gender differences in coeliac disease prevalence. A total of 4230 subjects were included consecutively (1 to ≥80 years old) reproducing the reference population by age and gender. Sample size was calculated assuming a population-based coeliac disease prevalence of 1:250. After an interim analysis, the paediatric sample was expanded (2010 children) due to high prevalence in this group. Anti-transglutaminase and antiendomysial antibodies were determined and duodenal biopsy was performed if positive. Log-linear models were fitted to coeliac disease prevalence by age allowing calculation of percentage change of prevalence. Differences between groups were compared using Chi-squared test. Twenty-one subjects had coeliac disease (male/female 1:2.5). Coeliac disease prevalence in the total population was 1:204. Coeliac disease prevalence was higher in children (1:71) than in adults (1:357) (P = 0.00005). A significant decrease of prevalence in older generations was observed [change of prevalence by age of -5% (95% CI: -7.58 to -2.42%)]. In the paediatric expanded group (1-14 years), a decrease of coeliac disease prevalence was also observed [prevalence change: -17% (95% CI: -25.02 to -6.10)]. The prevalence of coeliac disease in childhood was five times higher than in adults. Whether this difference is due to environmental factors influencing infancy, or latency of coeliac disease in adulthood, remains to be demonstrated in prospective longitudinal studies. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  15. External Stakeholders of Higher Education Institutions in Poland: Their Identification and Significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piotrowska-Piatek, Agnieszka

    2017-01-01

    In the context of the ongoing changes in the management systems of higher education, the issue of higher education institutions' (HEIs) relationships with external stakeholders are of key importance. This article discusses this problem from the perspective of Polish higher education system. The aim of it is to answer the following questions: (1)…

  16. Significant enhancement in thermoelectric performance of nanostructured higher manganese silicides synthesized employing a melt spinning technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthiah, Saravanan; Singh, R C; Pathak, B D; Avasthi, Piyush Kumar; Kumar, Rishikesh; Kumar, Anil; Srivastava, A K; Dhar, Ajay

    2018-01-25

    The limited thermoelectric performance of p-type Higher Manganese Silicides (HMS) in terms of their low figure-of-merit (ZT), which is far below unity, is the main bottle-neck for realising an efficient HMS based thermoelectric generator, which has been recognized as the most promising material for harnessing waste-heat in the mid-temperature range, owing to its thermal stability, earth-abundant and environmentally friendly nature of its constituent elements. We report a significant enhancement in the thermoelectric performance of nanostructured HMS synthesized using rapid solidification by optimizing the cooling rates during melt-spinning followed by spark plasma sintering of the resulting melt-spun ribbons. By employing this experimental strategy, an unprecedented ZT ∼ 0.82 at 800 K was realized in spark plasma sintered 5 at% Al-doped MnSi 1.73 HMS, melt spun at an optimized high cooling rate of ∼2 × 10 7 K s -1 . This enhancement in ZT represents a ∼25% increase over the best reported values thus far for HMS and primarily originates from a nano-crystalline microstructure consisting of a HMS matrix (20-40 nm) with excess Si (3-9 nm) uniformly distributed in it. This nanostructure, resulting from the high cooling rates employed during the melt-spinning of HMS, introduces a high density of nano-crystallite boundaries in a wide spectrum of nano-scale dimensions, which scatter the low-to-mid-wavelength heat-carrying phonons. This abundant phonon scattering results in a significantly reduced thermal conductivity of ∼1.5 W m -1 K -1 at 800 K, which primarily contributes to the enhancement in ZT.

  17. ASSESSING SELF-STUDY WORK’S SIGNIFICANT SKILLS FOR SUCCESSFUL LEARNING IN THE HIGHER SCHOOL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Galina V. Milovanova

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: the problem of organizing students’ independent work/self-study is not new, but the changes in the higher school for the last two decades show that the experience accumulated in the traditional educational model can be applied only when it is processed in the present-day conditions. The article analyses the innovative component of the educational process in terms of a significant increase in the volume of compulsory independent work in the university. Particular attention is paid to determining the levels of the formation of skills for independent work in terms of students’ readiness for its implementa¬tion. The aim of the research is to identify the most significant skills of independent work for successful study at the university. Materials and Methods: the research is based on general scholarly methods: analysis, comparison, generalisation. A questionnaire survey was carried out and a correlation analysis of the results was presented. The mathematical statistics methods in Excel application were u sed for processing the survey data. Results: the article focused on the relevance of formation the students’ ability to work independently in the learning process. Requirements for professionals recognize the need for knowledge and skills, but more importantly, the ability and readiness to complete this knowledge and be in a state of continuous education and self-education. In turn, readiness to self-education cannot exist without independent work. The ratio of students to work independently and their skills’ levels in this area of the gnostic, design, structural, organisational and communicative blocks were identified because o f the research. Discussion and Conclusions: the levels of the formation of the skills for independent work influence on the success of the learning. There is a correlation between indicators of achievement and the ability to work independently. Organisation and communication skills have significant

  18. The Significance of Blackstone's Understanding of Sovereign Immunity for America's Public Institutions of Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snow, Brian A.; Thro, William E.

    2001-01-01

    Asserts that from the perspective of America's public institutions of higher education, Blackstone's greatest legacy is his understanding of sovereign immunity. Explores the similarities between Blackstone's understanding of sovereign immunity and the current jurisprudence of the U.S. Supreme Court. (EV)

  19. Earthquake likelihood model testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schorlemmer, D.; Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jackson, D.D.; Rhoades, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    wide range of possible testing procedures exist. Jolliffe and Stephenson (2003) present different forecast verifications from atmospheric science, among them likelihood testing of probability forecasts and testing the occurrence of binary events. Testing binary events requires that for each forecasted event, the spatial, temporal and magnitude limits be given. Although major earthquakes can be considered binary events, the models within the RELM project express their forecasts on a spatial grid and in 0.1 magnitude units; thus the results are a distribution of rates over space and magnitude. These forecasts can be tested with likelihood tests.In general, likelihood tests assume a valid null hypothesis against which a given hypothesis is tested. The outcome is either a rejection of the null hypothesis in favor of the test hypothesis or a nonrejection, meaning the test hypothesis cannot outperform the null hypothesis at a given significance level. Within RELM, there is no accepted null hypothesis and thus the likelihood test needs to be expanded to allow comparable testing of equipollent hypotheses.To test models against one another, we require that forecasts are expressed in a standard format: the average rate of earthquake occurrence within pre-specified limits of hypocentral latitude, longitude, depth, magnitude, time period, and focal mechanisms. Focal mechanisms should either be described as the inclination of P-axis, declination of P-axis, and inclination of the T-axis, or as strike, dip, and rake angles. Schorlemmer and Gerstenberger (2007, this issue) designed classes of these parameters such that similar models will be tested against each other. These classes make the forecasts comparable between models. Additionally, we are limited to testing only what is precisely defined and consistently reported in earthquake catalogs. Therefore it is currently not possible to test such information as fault rupture length or area, asperity location, etc. Also, to account

  20. The risk of being depressed is significantly higher in cancer patients than in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hartung, T J; Brähler, E; Faller, H

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Depression is a common co-morbidity of cancer that has a detrimental effect on quality of life, treatment adherence and potentially survival. We conducted an epidemiological multi-center study including a population-based random comparison sample and estimated the prevalence...... of depressive symptoms by cancer site, thereby identifying cancer patients with the highest prevalence of depression. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We included 4020 adult cancer inpatients and outpatients from five distinct regions across Germany in a proportional stratified random sample based on the nationwide cancer......% participated (51% women, mean age = 58 years). We estimated that one in four cancer patients (24%) is depressed (PHQ-9 ≥ 10). The odds of being depressed among cancer patients were more than five times higher than in the general population (OR, 5.4; 95% CI, 4.6-6.2). Patients with pancreatic (M = 8.0, SD = 5...

  1. Solar cells from 120 PPMA carbon-contaminated feedstock without significantly higher reverse current or shunt

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manshanden, P.; Coletti, G. [ECN Solar Energy, Petten (Netherlands)

    2012-09-15

    In a bid to drive down the cost of silicon wafers, several options for solar grade silicon feedstock have been investigated over the years. All methods have in common that the resulting silicon contains higher levels of impurities like dopants, oxygen, carbon or transition metals, the type and level of impurities depending on the raw materials and refining processes. In this work wafers from a p-type mc-Si ingot made with feedstock contaminated with 120 ppma of carbon have been processed into solar cells together with reference uncontaminated feedstock from semiconductor grade polysilicon with <0.4 ppma carbon. The results show that comparable reverse current, shunts, and efficiencies can be reached for both types of wafers. Gettering and defect hydrogenation effectiveness also did not deviate from the reference. Electroluminescence pictures do not show increased hotspot formation, even at -16V.

  2. Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Adam R; Lee, James D; Misztal, Pawel K; Metzger, Stefan; Shaw, Marvin D; Lewis, Alastair C; Purvis, Ruth M; Carslaw, David C; Goldstein, Allen H; Hewitt, C Nicholas; Davison, Brian; Beevers, Sean D; Karl, Thomas G

    2016-07-18

    To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory.

  3. Normal LVEF measurements are significantly higher in females asassessed by post-stress resting Tc-99m sestamibi gated myocardial perfusion SPECT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jong Ho; Shin, Eak Kyun

    1999-01-01

    Volume-LVEF relationship is one of the most important factors of automatic EF quantification algorithm from gated myocardial perfusion SPECT(gMPS) (Germano et al. JNM, 1995). Gender difference whereby normal LVEF measurements are higher in females assessed by gMPS (Yao et al. JNM 1997). To validate true physiologic value of LVEF vs sampling or measured error, various parameters were evaluated statistically in both gender and age matched 200 subjects (mean age= 58.41±15.01) with normal LVEF more than 50%, and a low likelihood of coronary artery disease. Correlation between LVEDVi(ml/m2) and LVEF was highly significant (r=-0.62, p<0.0001) with similar correlations noted in both male (r=-0.45, p<0.0001) and female (r=-0.67, p<0.0001) subgroups. By multivariate analysis, LV volume and stroke volume was the most significant factor influencing LVEF in male and female, respectively. In conclusion, there is a significant negative correlation between LV volume and LVEF as measured by Tc-99m gated SPECT. Higher normal LVEF value should be applied to females as assessed by post-stress resting Tc-99m Sestamibi gated myocardial perfusion SPECT

  4. Logic of likelihood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wall, M.J.W.

    1992-01-01

    The notion of open-quotes probabilityclose quotes is generalized to that of open-quotes likelihood,close quotes and a natural logical structure is shown to exist for any physical theory which predicts likelihoods. Two physically based axioms are given for this logical structure to form an orthomodular poset, with an order-determining set of states. The results strengthen the basis of the quantum logic approach to axiomatic quantum theory. 25 refs

  5. The phylogenetic likelihood library.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flouri, T; Izquierdo-Carrasco, F; Darriba, D; Aberer, A J; Nguyen, L-T; Minh, B Q; Von Haeseler, A; Stamatakis, A

    2015-03-01

    We introduce the Phylogenetic Likelihood Library (PLL), a highly optimized application programming interface for developing likelihood-based phylogenetic inference and postanalysis software. The PLL implements appropriate data structures and functions that allow users to quickly implement common, error-prone, and labor-intensive tasks, such as likelihood calculations, model parameter as well as branch length optimization, and tree space exploration. The highly optimized and parallelized implementation of the phylogenetic likelihood function and a thorough documentation provide a framework for rapid development of scalable parallel phylogenetic software. By example of two likelihood-based phylogenetic codes we show that the PLL improves the sequential performance of current software by a factor of 2-10 while requiring only 1 month of programming time for integration. We show that, when numerical scaling for preventing floating point underflow is enabled, the double precision likelihood calculations in the PLL are up to 1.9 times faster than those in BEAGLE. On an empirical DNA dataset with 2000 taxa the AVX version of PLL is 4 times faster than BEAGLE (scaling enabled and required). The PLL is available at http://www.libpll.org under the GNU General Public License (GPL). © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  6. Serum concentration of alpha-1 antitrypsin is significantly higher in colorectal cancer patients than in healthy controls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pérez-Holanda, Sergio; Blanco, Ignacio; Menéndez, Manuel; Rodrigo, Luis

    2014-01-01

    The association between alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) deficiency and colorectal cancer (CRC) is currently controversial. The present study compares AAT serum concentrations and gene frequencies between a group of CRC patients and a control group of healthy unrelated people (HUP). 267 CRC subjects (63% males, 72 ± 10 years old) were enlisted from a Hospital Clinic setting in Asturias, Spain. The HUP group comprised 327 subjects (67% males, mean age 70 ± 7.5 years old) from the same geographical region. Outcome measures were AAT serum concentrations measured by nephelometry, and AAT phenotyping characterization by isoelectric focusing. Significantly higher serum concentrations were found among CRC (208 ± 60) than in HUP individuals (144 ± 20.5) (p = 0.0001). No differences were found in the phenotypic distribution of the Pi*S and Pi*Z allelic frequencies (p = 0.639), although the frequency of Pi*Z was higher in CRC (21%) than in HUP subjects (15%). The only statistically significant finding in this study was the markedly higher AAT serum concentrations found in CRC subjects compared with HUP controls, irrespective of whether their Pi* phenotype was normal (Pi*MM) or deficient (Pi*MS, Pi*MZ and Pi*SZ). Although there was a trend towards the more deficient Pi* phenotype the more advanced the tumor, the results were inconclusive due to the small sample size. Consequently, more powerful studies are needed to reach firmer conclusions on this matter

  7. Water Exchange Produces Significantly Higher Adenoma Detection Rate Than Water Immersion: Pooled Data From 2 Multisite Randomized Controlled Trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Felix W; Koo, Malcolm; Cadoni, Sergio; Falt, Premysl; Hsieh, Yu-Hsi; Amato, Arnaldo; Erriu, Matteo; Fojtik, Petr; Gallittu, Paolo; Hu, Chi-Tan; Leung, Joseph W; Liggi, Mauro; Paggi, Silvia; Radaelli, Franco; Rondonotti, Emanuele; Smajstrla, Vit; Tseng, Chih-Wei; Urban, Ondrej

    2018-03-02

    To test the hypothesis that water exchange (WE) significantly increases adenoma detection rates (ADR) compared with water immersion (WI). Low ADR was linked to increased risk for interval colorectal cancers and related deaths. Two recent randomized controlled trials of head-to-head comparison of WE, WI, and traditional air insufflation (AI) each showed that WE achieved significantly higher ADR than AI, but not WI. The data were pooled from these 2 studies to test the above hypothesis. Two trials (5 sites, 14 colonoscopists) that randomized 1875 patients 1:1:1 to AI, WI, or WE were pooled and analyzed with ADR as the primary outcome. The ADR of AI (39.5%) and WI (42.4%) were comparable, significantly lower than that of WE (49.6%) (vs. AI P=0.001; vs. WI P=0.033). WE insertion time was 3 minutes longer than that of AI (Prate (vs. AI) of the >10 mm advanced adenomas. Right colon combined advanced and sessile serrated ADR of AI (3.4%) and WI (5%) were comparable and were significantly lower than that of WE (8.5%) (vs. AI P<0.001; vs. WI P=0.039). Compared with AI and WI, the superior ADR of WE offsets the drawback of a significantly longer insertion time. For quality improvement focused on increasing adenoma detection, WE is preferred over WI. The hypothesis that WE could lower the risk of interval colorectal cancers and related deaths should be tested.

  8. Rib fractures and their association With solid organ injury: higher rib fractures have greater significance for solid organ injury screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rostas, Jack W; Lively, Timothy B; Brevard, Sidney B; Simmons, Jon D; Frotan, Mohammad A; Gonzalez, Richard P

    2017-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to identify patients with rib injuries who were at risk for solid organ injury. A retrospective chart review was performed of all blunt trauma patients with rib fractures during the period from July 2007 to July 2012. Data were analyzed for association of rib fractures and solid organ injury. In all, 1,103 rib fracture patients were identified; 142 patients had liver injuries with 109 (77%) associated right rib fractures. Right-sided rib fractures with highest sensitivity for liver injury were middle rib segment (5 to 8) and lower segment (9 to 12) with liver injury sensitivities of 68% and 43%, respectively (P rib fractures. Left middle segment rib fractures and lower segment rib fractures had sensitivities of 80% and 63% for splenic injury, respectively (P Rib fractures higher in the thoracic cage have significant association with solid organ injury. Using rib fractures from middle plus lower segments as indication for abdominal screening will significantly improve rib fracture sensitivity for identification of solid organ injury. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Maximum likelihood of phylogenetic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Guohua; Nakhleh, Luay; Snir, Sagi; Tuller, Tamir

    2006-11-01

    Horizontal gene transfer (HGT) is believed to be ubiquitous among bacteria, and plays a major role in their genome diversification as well as their ability to develop resistance to antibiotics. In light of its evolutionary significance and implications for human health, developing accurate and efficient methods for detecting and reconstructing HGT is imperative. In this article we provide a new HGT-oriented likelihood framework for many problems that involve phylogeny-based HGT detection and reconstruction. Beside the formulation of various likelihood criteria, we show that most of these problems are NP-hard, and offer heuristics for efficient and accurate reconstruction of HGT under these criteria. We implemented our heuristics and used them to analyze biological as well as synthetic data. In both cases, our criteria and heuristics exhibited very good performance with respect to identifying the correct number of HGT events as well as inferring their correct location on the species tree. Implementation of the criteria as well as heuristics and hardness proofs are available from the authors upon request. Hardness proofs can also be downloaded at http://www.cs.tau.ac.il/~tamirtul/MLNET/Supp-ML.pdf

  10. Tribes and Territories in the 21st Century: Rethinking the Significance of Disciplines in Higher Education. International Studies in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trowler, Paul, Ed.; Saunders, Murray, Ed.; Bamber, Veronica, Ed.

    2012-01-01

    The "tribes and territories" metaphor for the cultures of academic disciplines and their roots in different knowledge characteristics has been used by those interested in university life and work since the early 1990s. This book draws together research, data and theory to show how higher education has gone through major change since then…

  11. Human isolates of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium from Taiwan displayed significantly higher levels of antimicrobial resistance than those from Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torpdahl, Mia; Lauderdale, Tsai-Ling; Liang, Shiu-Yun; Li, Ishien; Wei, Sung-Hsi; Chiou, Chien-Shun

    2013-02-01

    Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium is a major zoonotic pathogen with a high prevalence of antimicrobial resistance. This pathogen can disseminate across borders and spread far distances via the food trade and international travel. In this study, we compared the genotypes and antimicrobial resistance of 378 S. Typhimurium isolates collected in Taiwan and Denmark between 2009 and 2010. Genotyping revealed that many S. Typhimurium strains were concurrently circulating in Taiwan, Denmark and other countries in 2009 and 2010. When compared to the isolates collected from Denmark, the isolates from Taiwan displayed a significantly higher level of resistance to 11 of the 12 tested antimicrobials. Seven genetic clusters (A-G) were designated for the isolates. A high percentage of the isolates in genetic clusters C, F and G were multidrug-resistant. Of the isolates in cluster C, 79.2% were ASSuT-resistant, characterized by resistance to ampicillin, streptomycin, sulfamethoxazole, and tetracycline. In cluster F, 84.1% of the isolates were ACSSuT-resistant (resistant to ASSuT and chloramphenicol). Cluster G was unique to Taiwan and characterized in most isolates by the absence of three VNTRs (ST20, ST30 and STTR6) as well as a variety of multidrug resistance profiles. This cluster exhibited very high to extremely high levels of resistance to several first-line drugs, and among the seven clusters, it displayed the highest levels of resistance to cefotaxime and ceftazidime, ciprofloxacin and gentamicin. The high prevalence of antimicrobial resistance in S. Typhimurium from Taiwan highlights the necessity to strictly regulate the use of antimicrobials in the agriculture and human health care sectors. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Likelihood devices in spatial statistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zwet, E.W. van

    1999-01-01

    One of the main themes of this thesis is the application to spatial data of modern semi- and nonparametric methods. Another, closely related theme is maximum likelihood estimation from spatial data. Maximum likelihood estimation is not common practice in spatial statistics. The method of moments

  13. Higher Education in the United Arab Emirates: An Analysis of the Outcomes of Significant Increases in Supply and Competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkins, Stephen

    2010-01-01

    During the last decade, several countries across the Middle and Far East have established higher education hubs, some of which have grown rapidly by attracting foreign universities to set up international branch campuses. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is by far the largest host of international branch campuses globally, having over 40 providers…

  14. Accreditation and Its Significance for Programs of Higher Education in Criminology and Criminal Justice: A Review of the Literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpson, Antony E.

    The development of minimum standards in higher education through the evolution of accreditation in specialized disciplines, and standard setting in criminology and criminal justice education are examined. The very different experiences with the concept of accreditation encountered in the fields of public administration and law are considered. Law…

  15. Efficient Bit-to-Symbol Likelihood Mappings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moision, Bruce E.; Nakashima, Michael A.

    2010-01-01

    This innovation is an efficient algorithm designed to perform bit-to-symbol and symbol-to-bit likelihood mappings that represent a significant portion of the complexity of an error-correction code decoder for high-order constellations. Recent implementation of the algorithm in hardware has yielded an 8- percent reduction in overall area relative to the prior design.

  16. Sterol 27-Hydroxylase Polymorphism Significantly Associates With Shorter Telomere, Higher Cardiovascular and Type-2 Diabetes Risk in Obese Subjects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sofia Pavanello

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Background/objectivesThe pathologic relationship linking obesity and lipid dismetabolism with earlier onset of aging-related disorders, including cardiovascular disease (CVD and type-2 diabetes (T2D, is not fully elucidate. Chronic inflammatory state, in obese individuals, may accelerate cellular aging. However, leukocyte telomere length (LTL, the cellular biological aging indicator, is elusively linked with obesity. Recent studies indicate that sterol 27-hydroxylase (CYP27A1 is an emerging antiatherogenic enzyme, that, by converting extrahepatic cholesterol to 27-hydroxycholesterol, facilitates cholesterol removal via high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C. We tested the hypothesis that obese subjects who carry at least three copies of CYP27A1 low-hydroxylation (LH activity genome-wide-validated alleles (rs4674345A, rs1554622A, and rs4674338G present premature aging, as reflected in shorter LTL and higher levels of CVD/T2D risk factors, including reduced HDL-C.Subjects/methodsObese subjects from SPHERE project {n = 1,457; overweight [body mass index (BMI 25–30 kg/m2] 65.8% and severe-obese (BMI > 30 kg/m2 34.2%} were characterized for the presence from 0 to 6 LH-CYP27A1 allele copy number. Univariate and multivariable sex–age–smoking-adjusted linear-regression models were performed to compare CVD/T2D risk factors and biological aging (LTL in relation to the combined BMI-LH groups: overweight-LH: 0–2, overweight-LH: 3–6, severe-obese-LH: 0–2, and severe-obese-LH: 3–6.ResultsHigher LTL attrition was found in severe-obese than overweight individuals (p < 0.001. Multivariable model reveals that among severe-obese patients those with LH: 3–6 present higher LTL attrition than LH: 0–2 (p < 0.05. Univariate and multivariable models remarkably show that insulin resistance is higher both in overweight-LH: 3–6 vs overweight-LH: 0–2 (p < 0.001 and in severe-obese-LH: 3–6 vs severe-obese-LH: 0–2 (p

  17. The H3 antagonist ABT-288 is tolerated at significantly higher exposures in subjects with schizophrenia than in healthy volunteers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Othman, Ahmed A; Haig, George; Florian, Hana; Locke, Charles; Gertsik, Lev; Dutta, Sandeep

    2014-06-01

    ABT-288 is a potent and selective H3 receptor antagonist with procognitive effects in several preclinical models. In previous studies, 3 mg once daily was the maximal tolerated dose in healthy volunteers. This study characterized the safety, tolerability and pharmacokinetics of ABT-288 in stable subjects with schizophrenia. This was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, dose-escalating study of ABT-288 (10 dose levels, from 1 to 60 mg once daily for 14 days) in stable subjects with schizophrenia treated with an atypical antipsychotic. In each dose group, five to seven and two to three participants were assigned to ABT-288 and placebo, respectively. Of the 67 participants enrolled, nine participants (on ABT-288) were prematurely discontinued, in seven of these due to adverse events. ABT-288 was generally safe and tolerated at doses up to 45 mg once daily. The most common adverse events, in decreasing frequency (from 31 to 5%), were abnormal dreams, headache, insomnia, dizziness, somnolence, dysgeusia, dry mouth, psychotic disorder, parosmia and tachycardia. Adverse events causing early termination were psychotic events (four) and increased creatine phosphokinase, pyrexia and insomnia (one each). The half-life of ABT-288 ranged from 28 to 51 h, and steady state was achieved by day 12 of dosing. At comparable multiple doses, ABT-288 exposure in subjects with schizophrenia was 45% lower than that previously observed in healthy subjects. At trough, ABT-288 cerebrospinal fluid concentrations were 40% of the total plasma concentrations. ABT-288 was tolerated at a 15-fold higher dose and 12-fold higher exposures in subjects with schizophrenia than previously observed in healthy volunteers. The greater ABT-288 tolerability was not due to limited brain uptake. © 2013 The British Pharmacological Society.

  18. Extended likelihood inference in reliability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martz, H.F. Jr.; Beckman, R.J.; Waller, R.A.

    1978-10-01

    Extended likelihood methods of inference are developed in which subjective information in the form of a prior distribution is combined with sampling results by means of an extended likelihood function. The extended likelihood function is standardized for use in obtaining extended likelihood intervals. Extended likelihood intervals are derived for the mean of a normal distribution with known variance, the failure-rate of an exponential distribution, and the parameter of a binomial distribution. Extended second-order likelihood methods are developed and used to solve several prediction problems associated with the exponential and binomial distributions. In particular, such quantities as the next failure-time, the number of failures in a given time period, and the time required to observe a given number of failures are predicted for the exponential model with a gamma prior distribution on the failure-rate. In addition, six types of life testing experiments are considered. For the binomial model with a beta prior distribution on the probability of nonsurvival, methods are obtained for predicting the number of nonsurvivors in a given sample size and for predicting the required sample size for observing a specified number of nonsurvivors. Examples illustrate each of the methods developed. Finally, comparisons are made with Bayesian intervals in those cases where these are known to exist

  19. Sources of Inspiration: The role of significant persons in young people's choice of science in higher education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjaastad, Jørgen

    2012-07-01

    The objectives of this article were to investigate to which extent and in what ways persons influence students' choice of science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) in tertiary education, and to assess the suitability of an analytical framework for describing this influence. In total, 5,007 Norwegian STEM students completed a questionnaire including multiple-choice as well as open-ended questions about sources of inspiration for their educational choice. Using the conceptualisation of significant persons suggested by Woelfel and Haller, the respondents' descriptions of parents and teachers are presented in order to elaborate on the different ways these significant persons influence a STEM-related educational choice. Parents engaged in STEM themselves are models, making the choice of STEM familiar, and they help youngsters define themselves through conversation and support, thus being definers. Teachers are models by displaying how STEM might bring fulfilment in someone's life and by giving pupils a positive experience with the subjects. They help young people discover their STEM abilities, thus being definers. Celebrities are reported to have minor influence on STEM-related educational choices. Both qualitative and quantitative analyses indicate that interpersonal relationships are key factors in order to inspire and motivate a choice of STEM education. Implications for recruitment issues and for research on interpersonal influence are discussed. It is suggested that initiatives to increase recruitment to STEM might be aimed at parents and other persons in interpersonal relationships with youth as a target group.

  20. Plucking the Golden Goose: Higher Royalty Rates on the Oil Sands Generate Significant Increases in Government Revenue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth J. McKenzie

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The Alberta government’s 2009 New Royalty Framework elicited resistance on the part of the energy industry, leading to subsequent reductions in the royalties imposed on natural gas and conventional oil. However, the oil sands sector, subject to different terms, quickly accepted the new arrangement with little complaint, recognizing it as win-win situation for industry and the government. Under the framework, Alberta recoups much more money in royalties — about $1 billion over the two year period of 2009 and 2010 — without impinging significantly on investment in the oil sands. This brief paper demonstrates that by spreading the financial risks and benefits to everyone involved, the new framework proves it’s possible to generate increased revenue without frightening off future investment. The same model could conceivably be applied to the conventional oil and natural gas sectors.

  1. Low Carbon Rice Farming Practices in the Mekong Delta Yield Significantly Higher Profits and Lower Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudek, J.; Van Sanh, N.; Tinh, T. K.; Tin, H. Q.; Thu Ha, T.; Pha, D. N.; Cui, T. Q.; Tin, N. H.; Son, N. N.; Thanh, H. H.; Kien, H. T.; Kritee, K.; Ahuja, R.

    2014-12-01

    The Vietnam Low-Carbon Rice Project (VLCRP) seeks to significantly reduce GHG emissions from rice cultivation, an activity responsible for more than 30% of Vietnam's overall GHG emissions, while improving livelihoods for the rice farmer community by decreasing costs and enhancing yield as well as providing supplemental farmer income through the sale of carbon credits. The Mekong Delta makes up 12% of Vietnam's land area, but produces more than 50% of the country's rice, including more than 90% of the rice for export. Rice cultivation is the main source of income for 80% of farmers in the Mekong Delta. VLCRP was launched in late 2012 in the Mekong Delta in two major rice production provinces, Kien Giang and An Giang. To date, VLCRP has completed 11 crop seasons (in Kien Giang and An Giang combined), training over 400 farmer households in applying VLCRP's package of practices (known as 1 Must - 6 Reductions) and building technical capacity to its key stakeholders and rice farmer community leaders. By adopting the 1 Must- 6 Reductions practices (including reduced seeding density, reduced fertilizer and pesticide application, and alternative wetting and drying water management), rice farmers reduce their input costs while maintaining or improving yields, and decreasing greenhouse gas emissions. The VLCRP package of practices also deliver other environmental and social co-benefits, such as reduced water pollution, improved habitat for fishery resources and reduced health risks for farmers through the reduction of agri-chemicals. VLCRP farmers use significantly less inputs (50% reduction in seed, 30% reduction in fertilizer, 40-50% reduction in water) while improving yields 5-10%, leading to an increase in profit from 10% to as high as 60% per hectare. Preliminary results indicate that the 1 Must- 6 Reductions practices have led to approximately 40-65% reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to 4 tons of CO2e/ha/yr in An Giang and 35 tons of CO2e/ha/yr in Kien

  2. Risk factors and likelihood of Campylobacter colonization in broiler flocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SL Kuana

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Campylobacter was investigated in cecal droppings, feces, and cloacal swabs of 22 flocks of 3 to 5 week-old broilers. Risk factors and the likelihood of the presence of this agent in these flocks were determined. Management practices, such as cleaning and disinfection, feeding, drinkers, and litter treatments, were assessed. Results were evaluated using Odds Ratio (OR test, and their significance was tested by Fisher's test (p<0.05. A Campylobacter prevalence of 81.8% was found in the broiler flocks (18/22, and within positive flocks, it varied between 85 and 100%. Campylobacter incidence among sample types was homogenous, being 81.8% in cecal droppings, 80.9% in feces, and 80.4% in cloacal swabs (230. Flocks fed by automatic feeding systems presented higher incidence of Campylobacter as compared to those fed by tube feeders. Litter was reused in 63.6% of the farm, and, despite the lack of statistical significance, there was higher likelihood of Campylobacter incidence when litter was reused. Foot bath was not used in 45.5% of the flocks, whereas the use of foot bath associated to deficient lime management increased the number of positive flocks, although with no statiscal significance. The evaluated parameters were not significantly associated with Campylobacter colonization in the assessed broiler flocks.

  3. Obtaining reliable Likelihood Ratio tests from simulated likelihood functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Laura Mørch

    It is standard practice by researchers and the default option in many statistical programs to base test statistics for mixed models on simulations using asymmetric draws (e.g. Halton draws). This paper shows that when the estimated likelihood functions depend on standard deviations of mixed param...

  4. Phylogenetic analysis using parsimony and likelihood methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z

    1996-02-01

    The assumptions underlying the maximum-parsimony (MP) method of phylogenetic tree reconstruction were intuitively examined by studying the way the method works. Computer simulations were performed to corroborate the intuitive examination. Parsimony appears to involve very stringent assumptions concerning the process of sequence evolution, such as constancy of substitution rates between nucleotides, constancy of rates across nucleotide sites, and equal branch lengths in the tree. For practical data analysis, the requirement of equal branch lengths means similar substitution rates among lineages (the existence of an approximate molecular clock), relatively long interior branches, and also few species in the data. However, a small amount of evolution is neither a necessary nor a sufficient requirement of the method. The difficulties involved in the application of current statistical estimation theory to tree reconstruction were discussed, and it was suggested that the approach proposed by Felsenstein (1981, J. Mol. Evol. 17: 368-376) for topology estimation, as well as its many variations and extensions, differs fundamentally from the maximum likelihood estimation of a conventional statistical parameter. Evidence was presented showing that the Felsenstein approach does not share the asymptotic efficiency of the maximum likelihood estimator of a statistical parameter. Computer simulations were performed to study the probability that MP recovers the true tree under a hierarchy of models of nucleotide substitution; its performance relative to the likelihood method was especially noted. The results appeared to support the intuitive examination of the assumptions underlying MP. When a simple model of nucleotide substitution was assumed to generate data, the probability that MP recovers the true topology could be as high as, or even higher than, that for the likelihood method. When the assumed model became more complex and realistic, e.g., when substitution rates were

  5. Ego involvement increases doping likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ring, Christopher; Kavussanu, Maria

    2018-08-01

    Achievement goal theory provides a framework to help understand how individuals behave in achievement contexts, such as sport. Evidence concerning the role of motivation in the decision to use banned performance enhancing substances (i.e., doping) is equivocal on this issue. The extant literature shows that dispositional goal orientation has been weakly and inconsistently associated with doping intention and use. It is possible that goal involvement, which describes the situational motivational state, is a stronger determinant of doping intention. Accordingly, the current study used an experimental design to examine the effects of goal involvement, manipulated using direct instructions and reflective writing, on doping likelihood in hypothetical situations in college athletes. The ego-involving goal increased doping likelihood compared to no goal and a task-involving goal. The present findings provide the first evidence that ego involvement can sway the decision to use doping to improve athletic performance.

  6. Significant determinants of academic performance by new students enrolled in the higher distance education system of Ecuador. The case of the Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis F. Moncada Mora

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In this article we present the significant determiners of academic performance of new students enrolled in the higher distance education system of Ecuador. A description and correlation of the variables were undertaken to formalize the probabilistic model that confirms the positive, negative, individual and global effects.

  7. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaë l; Davison, Anthony C.; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  8. Likelihood estimators for multivariate extremes

    KAUST Repository

    Huser, Raphaël

    2015-11-17

    The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of componentwise maxima, high threshold exceedances or point processes, yielding different but related asymptotic characterizations and estimators. The present paper clarifies the connections between the main likelihood estimators, and assesses their practical performance. We investigate their ability to estimate the extremal dependence structure and to predict future extremes, using exact calculations and simulation, in the case of the logistic model.

  9. The ratio of nurse consultation and physician efficiency index of senior rheumatologists is significantly higher than junior physicians in rheumatology residency training

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emamifar, Amir; van Bui Hansen, Morten Hai; Jensen Hansen, Inger Marie

    2017-01-01

    To elucidate the difference between ratios of nurse consultation sought by senior rheumatologists and junior physicians in rheumatology residency training, and also to evaluate physician efficiency index respecting patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Data regarding outpatient visits for RA...... patients between November 2013 and 2015 were extracted. The mean interval (day) between consultations, the nurse/physician visits ratio, and physician efficiency index (nurse/physician visits ratio × mean interval) for each senior and junior physicians were calculated. Disease Activity Score in 28 joints....../physician visits ratio (P = .01) and mean efficiency index (P = .04) of senior rheumatologists were significantly higher than that of junior physicians. Regression analysis showed a positive correlation between physician postgraduate experience and physician efficiency index adjusted for DAS28 at baseline...

  10. The Laplace Likelihood Ratio Test for Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Martin van Zyl

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available It is shown that the likelihood ratio test for heteroscedasticity, assuming the Laplace distribution, gives good results for Gaussian and fat-tailed data. The likelihood ratio test, assuming normality, is very sensitive to any deviation from normality, especially when the observations are from a distribution with fat tails. Such a likelihood test can also be used as a robust test for a constant variance in residuals or a time series if the data is partitioned into groups.

  11. Patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy are significantly shorter than those with Becker muscular dystrophy, with the higher incidence of short stature in Dp71 mutated subgroup.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsumoto, Masaaki; Awano, Hiroyuki; Lee, Tomoko; Takeshima, Yasuhiro; Matsuo, Masafumi; Iijima, Kazumoto

    2017-11-01

    Duchenne and Becker muscular dystrophy (DMD/BMD) are caused by mutations in the dystrophin gene and are characterized by severe and mild progressive muscle wasting, respectively. Short stature has been reported as a feature of DMD in the Western hemisphere, but not yet confirmed in Orientals. Height of young BMD has not been fully characterized. Here, height of ambulant and steroid naive Japanese 179 DMD and 42 BMD patients between 4 and 10 years of age was retrospectively examined using height standard deviation score (SDS). The mean height SDS of DMD was -1.08 SD that was significantly smaller than normal (p < 0.001), indicating short stature of Japanese DMD. Furthermore, the mean height SDS of BMD was -0.27 SD, suggesting shorter stature than normal. Remarkably, the mean height SDS of DMD was significantly smaller than that of BMD (p < 0.0001). In DMD higher incidence of short stature (height SDS < -2.5 SD) was observed in Dp71 subgroup having mutations in dystrophin exons 63-79 than others having mutations in exons 1-62 (27.8% vs. 7.5%, p = 0.017). These suggested that height is influenced by dystrophin in not only DMD but also BMD and that dystrophin Dp71 has a role in height regulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Maximum Likelihood Reconstruction for Magnetic Resonance Fingerprinting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Bo; Setsompop, Kawin; Ye, Huihui; Cauley, Stephen F; Wald, Lawrence L

    2016-08-01

    This paper introduces a statistical estimation framework for magnetic resonance (MR) fingerprinting, a recently proposed quantitative imaging paradigm. Within this framework, we present a maximum likelihood (ML) formalism to estimate multiple MR tissue parameter maps directly from highly undersampled, noisy k-space data. A novel algorithm, based on variable splitting, the alternating direction method of multipliers, and the variable projection method, is developed to solve the resulting optimization problem. Representative results from both simulations and in vivo experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach yields significantly improved accuracy in parameter estimation, compared to the conventional MR fingerprinting reconstruction. Moreover, the proposed framework provides new theoretical insights into the conventional approach. We show analytically that the conventional approach is an approximation to the ML reconstruction; more precisely, it is exactly equivalent to the first iteration of the proposed algorithm for the ML reconstruction, provided that a gridding reconstruction is used as an initialization.

  13. A maximum likelihood framework for protein design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Hervé

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aim of protein design is to predict amino-acid sequences compatible with a given target structure. Traditionally envisioned as a purely thermodynamic question, this problem can also be understood in a wider context, where additional constraints are captured by learning the sequence patterns displayed by natural proteins of known conformation. In this latter perspective, however, we still need a theoretical formalization of the question, leading to general and efficient learning methods, and allowing for the selection of fast and accurate objective functions quantifying sequence/structure compatibility. Results We propose a formulation of the protein design problem in terms of model-based statistical inference. Our framework uses the maximum likelihood principle to optimize the unknown parameters of a statistical potential, which we call an inverse potential to contrast with classical potentials used for structure prediction. We propose an implementation based on Markov chain Monte Carlo, in which the likelihood is maximized by gradient descent and is numerically estimated by thermodynamic integration. The fit of the models is evaluated by cross-validation. We apply this to a simple pairwise contact potential, supplemented with a solvent-accessibility term, and show that the resulting models have a better predictive power than currently available pairwise potentials. Furthermore, the model comparison method presented here allows one to measure the relative contribution of each component of the potential, and to choose the optimal number of accessibility classes, which turns out to be much higher than classically considered. Conclusion Altogether, this reformulation makes it possible to test a wide diversity of models, using different forms of potentials, or accounting for other factors than just the constraint of thermodynamic stability. Ultimately, such model-based statistical analyses may help to understand the forces

  14. MXLKID: a maximum likelihood parameter identifier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gavel, D.T.

    1980-07-01

    MXLKID (MaXimum LiKelihood IDentifier) is a computer program designed to identify unknown parameters in a nonlinear dynamic system. Using noisy measurement data from the system, the maximum likelihood identifier computes a likelihood function (LF). Identification of system parameters is accomplished by maximizing the LF with respect to the parameters. The main body of this report briefly summarizes the maximum likelihood technique and gives instructions and examples for running the MXLKID program. MXLKID is implemented LRLTRAN on the CDC7600 computer at LLNL. A detailed mathematical description of the algorithm is given in the appendices. 24 figures, 6 tables

  15. A puzzle form of a non-verbal intelligence test gives significantly higher performance measures in children with severe intellectual disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bello, Katrina D; Goharpey, Nahal; Crewther, Sheila G; Crewther, David P

    2008-08-01

    Assessment of 'potential intellectual ability' of children with severe intellectual disability (ID) is limited, as current tests designed for normal children do not maintain their interest. Thus a manual puzzle version of the Raven's Coloured Progressive Matrices (RCPM) was devised to appeal to the attentional and sensory preferences and language limitations of children with ID. It was hypothesized that performance on the book and manual puzzle forms would not differ for typically developing children but that children with ID would perform better on the puzzle form. The first study assessed the validity of this puzzle form of the RCPM for 76 typically developing children in a test-retest crossover design, with a 3 week interval between tests. A second study tested performance and completion rate for the puzzle form compared to the book form in a sample of 164 children with ID. In the first study, no significant difference was found between performance on the puzzle and book forms in typically developing children, irrespective of the order of completion. The second study demonstrated a significantly higher performance and completion rate for the puzzle form compared to the book form in the ID population. Similar performance on book and puzzle forms of the RCPM by typically developing children suggests that both forms measure the same construct. These findings suggest that the puzzle form does not require greater cognitive ability but demands sensory-motor attention and limits distraction in children with severe ID. Thus, we suggest the puzzle form of the RCPM is a more reliable measure of the non-verbal mentation of children with severe ID than the book form.

  16. Essays on empirical likelihood in economics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, Z.

    2012-01-01

    This thesis intends to exploit the roots of empirical likelihood and its related methods in mathematical programming and computation. The roots will be connected and the connections will induce new solutions for the problems of estimation, computation, and generalization of empirical likelihood.

  17. Indexed effective orifice area is a significant predictor of higher mid- and long-term mortality rates following aortic valve replacement in patients with prosthesis-patient mismatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jian; Lin, Yiyun; Kang, Bo; Wang, Zhinong

    2014-02-01

    Prosthesis-patient mismatch (PPM) is defined as a too-small effective orifice area (EOA) of an inserted prosthetic relative to body size, resulting in an abnormally high postoperative gradient. It is unclear, however, whether residual stenosis after aortic valve replacement (AVR) has a negative impact on mid- and long-term survivals. We searched electronic databases, including PubMed, Embase, Medline and the Cochrane controlled trials register, through October 2012, to identify published full-text English studies on the association between PPM and mortality rates. A significant PPM was defined as an indexed EOA (iEOA)<0.85 cm2/m2, and severe PPM as an iEOA<0.65 cm2/m2. Two reviewers independently assessed the studies for inclusion and extracted data. Fourteen observational studies, involving 14 874 patients, met our final inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis demonstrated that PPM significantly increased mid-term (odds ratio [OR] 1.42, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-1.69) and long-term (OR 1.52, 95% CI 1.26-1.84) all-cause mortalities. Subgroup analysis showed that PPM was associated with higher mid- and long-term mortality rates only in younger and predominantly female populations. Risk-adjusted sensitivity analysis showed that severe PPM was associated with reduced survival (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.50, 95% CI 1.24-1.80), whereas moderate PPM was not (adjusted HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.86-1.07). Regardless of severity, however, PPM had a negative effect on survival in patients with impaired ejection fraction (adjusted HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.09-1.47). PPM (iEOA<0.85 cm2/m2) after AVR tended to be associated with increased long-term all-cause mortality in younger patients, females and patients with preoperative left ventricular dysfunction. Severe PPM (iEOA<0.65 cm2/m2) was a significant predictor of reduced long-term survival in all populations undergoing AVR.

  18. Clinical Paresthesia Atlas Illustrates Likelihood of Coverage Based on Spinal Cord Stimulator Electrode Location.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghva, Alexander; Karst, Edward; Underwood, Paul

    2017-08-01

    Concordant paresthesia coverage is an independent predictor of pain relief following spinal cord stimulation (SCS). Using aggregate data, our objective is to produce a map of paresthesia coverage as a function of electrode location in SCS. This retrospective analysis used x-rays, SCS programming data, and paresthesia coverage maps from the EMPOWER registry of SCS implants for chronic neuropathic pain. Spinal level of dorsal column stimulation was determined by x-ray adjudication and active cathodes in patient programs. Likelihood of paresthesia coverage was determined as a function of stimulating electrode location. Segments of paresthesia coverage were grouped anatomically. Fisher's exact test was used to identify significant differences in likelihood of paresthesia coverage as a function of spinal stimulation level. In the 178 patients analyzed, the most prevalent areas of paresthesia coverage were buttocks, anterior and posterior thigh (each 98%), and low back (94%). Unwanted paresthesia at the ribs occurred in 8% of patients. There were significant differences in the likelihood of achieving paresthesia, with higher thoracic levels (T5, T6, and T7) more likely to achieve low back coverage but also more likely to introduce paresthesia felt at the ribs. Higher levels in the thoracic spine were associated with greater coverage of the buttocks, back, and thigh, and with lesser coverage of the leg and foot. This paresthesia atlas uses real-world, aggregate data to determine likelihood of paresthesia coverage as a function of stimulating electrode location. It represents an application of "big data" techniques, and a step toward achieving personalized SCS therapy tailored to the individual's chronic pain. © 2017 International Neuromodulation Society.

  19. Likelihood analysis of the minimal AMSB model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bagnaschi, E.; Weiglein, G. [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Borsato, M.; Chobanova, V.; Lucio, M.; Santos, D.M. [Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Sakurai, K. [Institute for Particle Physics Phenomenology, University of Durham, Science Laboratories, Department of Physics, Durham (United Kingdom); University of Warsaw, Faculty of Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Warsaw (Poland); Buchmueller, O.; Citron, M.; Costa, J.C.; Richards, A. [Imperial College, High Energy Physics Group, Blackett Laboratory, London (United Kingdom); Cavanaugh, R. [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, IL (United States); University of Illinois at Chicago, Physics Department, Chicago, IL (United States); De Roeck, A. [Experimental Physics Department, CERN, Geneva (Switzerland); Antwerp University, Wilrijk (Belgium); Dolan, M.J. [School of Physics, University of Melbourne, ARC Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Terascale, Melbourne (Australia); Ellis, J.R. [King' s College London, Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, London (United Kingdom); CERN, Theoretical Physics Department, Geneva (Switzerland); Flaecher, H. [University of Bristol, H.H. Wills Physics Laboratory, Bristol (United Kingdom); Heinemeyer, S. [Campus of International Excellence UAM+CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fisica Teorica UAM-CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Cantabria (Spain); Isidori, G. [Physik-Institut, Universitaet Zuerich, Zurich (Switzerland); Luo, F. [Kavli IPMU (WPI), UTIAS, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba (Japan); Olive, K.A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    2017-04-15

    We perform a likelihood analysis of the minimal anomaly-mediated supersymmetry-breaking (mAMSB) model using constraints from cosmology and accelerator experiments. We find that either a wino-like or a Higgsino-like neutralino LSP, χ{sup 0}{sub 1}, may provide the cold dark matter (DM), both with similar likelihoods. The upper limit on the DM density from Planck and other experiments enforces m{sub χ{sup 0}{sub 1}} 0) but the scalar mass m{sub 0} is poorly constrained. In the wino-LSP case, m{sub 3/2} is constrained to about 900 TeV and m{sub χ{sup 0}{sub 1}} to 2.9 ± 0.1 TeV, whereas in the Higgsino-LSP case m{sub 3/2} has just a lower limit >or similar 650 TeV (>or similar 480 TeV) and m{sub χ{sup 0}{sub 1}} is constrained to 1.12 (1.13) ± 0.02 TeV in the μ > 0 (μ < 0) scenario. In neither case can the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, (g-2){sub μ}, be improved significantly relative to its Standard Model (SM) value, nor do flavour measurements constrain the model significantly, and there are poor prospects for discovering supersymmetric particles at the LHC, though there are some prospects for direct DM detection. On the other hand, if the χ{sup 0}{sub 1} contributes only a fraction of the cold DM density, future LHC E{sub T}-based searches for gluinos, squarks and heavier chargino and neutralino states as well as disappearing track searches in the wino-like LSP region will be relevant, and interference effects enable BR(B{sub s,d} → μ{sup +}μ{sup -}) to agree with the data better than in the SM in the case of wino-like DM with μ > 0. (orig.)

  20. Asymptotic Likelihood Distribution for Correlated & Constrained Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Agarwal, Ujjwal

    2016-01-01

    It describes my work as summer student at CERN. The report discusses the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio for total no. of parameters being h and 2 out of these being are constrained and correlated.

  1. Maximum-Likelihood Detection Of Noncoherent CPM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divsalar, Dariush; Simon, Marvin K.

    1993-01-01

    Simplified detectors proposed for use in maximum-likelihood-sequence detection of symbols in alphabet of size M transmitted by uncoded, full-response continuous phase modulation over radio channel with additive white Gaussian noise. Structures of receivers derived from particular interpretation of maximum-likelihood metrics. Receivers include front ends, structures of which depends only on M, analogous to those in receivers of coherent CPM. Parts of receivers following front ends have structures, complexity of which would depend on N.

  2. Maximum likelihood window for time delay estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Young Sup; Yoon, Dong Jin; Kim, Chi Yup

    2004-01-01

    Time delay estimation for the detection of leak location in underground pipelines is critically important. Because the exact leak location depends upon the precision of the time delay between sensor signals due to leak noise and the speed of elastic waves, the research on the estimation of time delay has been one of the key issues in leak lovating with the time arrival difference method. In this study, an optimal Maximum Likelihood window is considered to obtain a better estimation of the time delay. This method has been proved in experiments, which can provide much clearer and more precise peaks in cross-correlation functions of leak signals. The leak location error has been less than 1 % of the distance between sensors, for example the error was not greater than 3 m for 300 m long underground pipelines. Apart from the experiment, an intensive theoretical analysis in terms of signal processing has been described. The improved leak locating with the suggested method is due to the windowing effect in frequency domain, which offers a weighting in significant frequencies.

  3. Organizational Justice and Men's Likelihood to Sexually Harass: The Moderating Role of Sexism and Personality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krings, Franciska; Facchin, Stephanie

    2009-01-01

    This study demonstrated relations between men's perceptions of organizational justice and increased sexual harassment proclivities. Respondents reported higher likelihood to sexually harass under conditions of low interactional justice, suggesting that sexual harassment likelihood may increase as a response to perceived injustice. Moreover, the…

  4. Maximum Likelihood and Restricted Likelihood Solutions in Multiple-Method Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rukhin, Andrew L

    2011-01-01

    A formulation of the problem of combining data from several sources is discussed in terms of random effects models. The unknown measurement precision is assumed not to be the same for all methods. We investigate maximum likelihood solutions in this model. By representing the likelihood equations as simultaneous polynomial equations, the exact form of the Groebner basis for their stationary points is derived when there are two methods. A parametrization of these solutions which allows their comparison is suggested. A numerical method for solving likelihood equations is outlined, and an alternative to the maximum likelihood method, the restricted maximum likelihood, is studied. In the situation when methods variances are considered to be known an upper bound on the between-method variance is obtained. The relationship between likelihood equations and moment-type equations is also discussed.

  5. Planck 2013 results. XV. CMB power spectra and likelihood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Planck Collaboration; Ade, P. A. R.; Aghanim, N.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A. J.; Barreiro, R. B.; Bartlett, J. G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J. J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J. R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F. R.; Boulanger, F.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R. C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, H. C.; Chiang, L.-Y.; Christensen, P. R.; Church, S.; Clements, D. L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B. P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R. D.; Davis, R. J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.-M.; Désert, F.-X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J. M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T. A.; Eriksen, H. K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A. A.; Franceschi, E.; Gaier, T. C.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K. M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J. E.; Hansen, F. K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S. R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W. A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A. H.; Jaffe, T. R.; Jewell, J.; Jones, W. C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kisner, T. S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Laureijs, R. J.; Lawrence, C. R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leach, S.; Leahy, J. P.; Leonardi, R.; León-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P. B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; Lindholm, V.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P. M.; Macías-Pérez, J. F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D. J.; Martin, P. G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Massardi, M.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P. R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Menegoni, E.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Millea, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J. A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C. B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H. U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I. J.; Orieux, F.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C. A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Paykari, P.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G. W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J. P.; Rahlin, A.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ringeval, C.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubiño-Martín, J. A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Sanselme, L.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M. D.; Shellard, E. P. S.; Spencer, L. D.; Starck, J.-L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J. A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Türler, M.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L. A.; Wandelt, B. D.; Wehus, I. K.; White, M.; White, S. D. M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents the Planck 2013 likelihood, a complete statistical description of the two-point correlation function of the CMB temperature fluctuations that accounts for all known relevant uncertainties, both instrumental and astrophysical in nature. We use this likelihood to derive our best estimate of the CMB angular power spectrum from Planck over three decades in multipole moment, ℓ, covering 2 ≤ ℓ ≤ 2500. The main source of uncertainty at ℓ ≲ 1500 is cosmic variance. Uncertainties in small-scale foreground modelling and instrumental noise dominate the error budget at higher ℓs. For ℓ impact of residual foreground and instrumental uncertainties on the final cosmological parameters. We find good internal agreement among the high-ℓ cross-spectra with residuals below a few μK2 at ℓ ≲ 1000, in agreement with estimated calibration uncertainties. We compare our results with foreground-cleaned CMB maps derived from all Planck frequencies, as well as with cross-spectra derived from the 70 GHz Planck map, and find broad agreement in terms of spectrum residuals and cosmological parameters. We further show that the best-fit ΛCDM cosmology is in excellent agreement with preliminary PlanckEE and TE polarisation spectra. We find that the standard ΛCDM cosmology is well constrained by Planck from the measurements at ℓ ≲ 1500. One specific example is the spectral index of scalar perturbations, for which we report a 5.4σ deviation from scale invariance, ns = 1. Increasing the multipole range beyond ℓ ≃ 1500 does not increase our accuracy for the ΛCDM parameters, but instead allows us to study extensions beyond the standard model. We find no indication of significant departures from the ΛCDM framework. Finally, we report a tension between the Planck best-fit ΛCDM model and the low-ℓ spectrum in the form of a power deficit of 5-10% at ℓ ≲ 40, with a statistical significance of 2.5-3σ. Without a theoretically motivated model for

  6. Significance of the sexual openings and supplementary structures on the phylogeny of brachyuran crabs (Crustacea, Decapoda, Brachyura), with new nomina for higher-ranked podotreme taxa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guinot, Danièle; Tavares, Marcos; Castro, Peter

    2013-01-01

    The patterns of complexity of the male and female sexual openings in Brachyura, which have been the source of uncertainties and conflicting opinions, are documented, together with a study of the morphologies of the coxal and sternal gonopores in both sexes, penises, spermathecae, and gonopods. The vulvae, male gonopores and penises are described among selected taxa of Eubrachyura, and their function and evolution examined in the context of a wide variety of mating behaviours. The location of female and male gonopores, the condition of the penis (coxal and sternal openings and modalities of protection), and related configurations of thoracic sternites 7 and 8, which are modified by the intercalation of a wide sternal part (thoracic sternites 7 and 8) during carcinisation, show evidence of deep homology. They represent taxonomic criteria at all ranks of the family-series and may be used to test lineages. Of particular significance are the consequences of the posterior expansion of the thoracic sternum, which influences the condition, shape, and sclerotisation of the penis, and its emergence from coxal (heterotreme) to coxo-sternal, which is actually still coxal (heterotreme), in contrast to a sternal emergence (thoracotreme). The heterotreme-thoracotreme distinction results from two different trajectories of the vas deferens and its ejaculatory duct via the P5 coxa (Heterotremata) or through the thoracic sternum (Thoracotremata). Dissections of males of several families have demonstrated that this major difference not only affects the external surface (perforation of the coxa or the sternum by the ejaculatory duct) but also the internal anatomy. There is no evidence for an ejaculatory duct passing through the articular membrane between the P5 coxa and the thoracic sternum in any Brachyura, even when the sternal male gonopore is very close to the P5 coxa. Trends towards the coxo-sternal condition are exemplified by multistate characters, varying from a shallow

  7. Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Helisová, Katarina

    To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper which discusses likelihood inference or a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable edge effects occur, and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled...... is specified with respect to a given marked Poisson model (i.e. a Boolean model). We show how edge effects and other complications can be handled by considering a certain conditional likelihood. Our methodology is illustrated by analyzing Peter Diggle's heather dataset, where we discuss the results...... of simulation-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

  8. Maximum likelihood estimation for integrated diffusion processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baltazar-Larios, Fernando; Sørensen, Michael

    We propose a method for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of parameters in diffusion models when the data is a discrete time sample of the integral of the process, while no direct observations of the process itself are available. The data are, moreover, assumed to be contaminated...... EM-algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in the diffusion model. As part of the algorithm, we use a recent simple method for approximate simulation of diffusion bridges. In simulation studies for the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and the CIR process the proposed method works...... by measurement errors. Integrated volatility is an example of this type of observations. Another example is ice-core data on oxygen isotopes used to investigate paleo-temperatures. The data can be viewed as incomplete observations of a model with a tractable likelihood function. Therefore we propose a simulated...

  9. Maintaining symmetry of simulated likelihood functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Laura Mørch

    This paper suggests solutions to two different types of simulation errors related to Quasi-Monte Carlo integration. Likelihood functions which depend on standard deviations of mixed parameters are symmetric in nature. This paper shows that antithetic draws preserve this symmetry and thereby...... improves precision substantially. Another source of error is that models testing away mixing dimensions must replicate the relevant dimensions of the quasi-random draws in the simulation of the restricted likelihood. These simulation errors are ignored in the standard estimation procedures used today...

  10. Likelihood inference for unions of interacting discs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Helisova, K.

    2010-01-01

    This is probably the first paper which discusses likelihood inference for a random set using a germ-grain model, where the individual grains are unobservable, edge effects occur and other complications appear. We consider the case where the grains form a disc process modelled by a marked point...... process, where the germs are the centres and the marks are the associated radii of the discs. We propose to use a recent parametric class of interacting disc process models, where the minimal sufficient statistic depends on various geometric properties of the random set, and the density is specified......-based maximum likelihood inference and the effect of specifying different reference Poisson models....

  11. The significance of recruiting underrepresented minorities in medicine: an examination of the need for effective approaches used in admissions by higher education institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Obed Figueroa

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine the significance of recruiting underrepresented minorities in medicine (URM. This would include African Americans, Hispanics, and Native Americans. The research findings support the belief that URMs, upon graduating, are more likely to become practitioners in underserved communities, thereby becoming a resource that prompts us to find effective ways to help increase their college enrollments statewide. This paper analyzes the recruitment challenges for institutions, followed by a review of creative and effective approaches used by organizations and universities. The results have shown positive outcomes averaging a 50% increase in minority enrollments and retention. In other areas, such as cognitive development, modest gains were achieved in programs that were shorter in duration. The results nevertheless indicated steps in the right direction inspiring further program developments.

  12. Composite likelihood estimation of demographic parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garrigan Daniel

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Most existing likelihood-based methods for fitting historical demographic models to DNA sequence polymorphism data to do not scale feasibly up to the level of whole-genome data sets. Computational economies can be achieved by incorporating two forms of pseudo-likelihood: composite and approximate likelihood methods. Composite likelihood enables scaling up to large data sets because it takes the product of marginal likelihoods as an estimator of the likelihood of the complete data set. This approach is especially useful when a large number of genomic regions constitutes the data set. Additionally, approximate likelihood methods can reduce the dimensionality of the data by summarizing the information in the original data by either a sufficient statistic, or a set of statistics. Both composite and approximate likelihood methods hold promise for analyzing large data sets or for use in situations where the underlying demographic model is complex and has many parameters. This paper considers a simple demographic model of allopatric divergence between two populations, in which one of the population is hypothesized to have experienced a founder event, or population bottleneck. A large resequencing data set from human populations is summarized by the joint frequency spectrum, which is a matrix of the genomic frequency spectrum of derived base frequencies in two populations. A Bayesian Metropolis-coupled Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMCMC method for parameter estimation is developed that uses both composite and likelihood methods and is applied to the three different pairwise combinations of the human population resequence data. The accuracy of the method is also tested on data sets sampled from a simulated population model with known parameters. Results The Bayesian MCMCMC method also estimates the ratio of effective population size for the X chromosome versus that of the autosomes. The method is shown to estimate, with reasonable

  13. PCR reveals significantly higher rates of Trypanosoma cruzi infection than microscopy in the Chagas vector, Triatoma infestans: High rates found in Chuquisaca, Bolivia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucero David E

    2007-06-01

    ' and TCZ2 (5' – CCT CCA AGC AGC GGA TAG TTC AGG – 3' primers. Amplicons were chromatographed on a 2% agarose gel with a 100 bp size standard, stained with ethidium bromide and viewed with UV fluorescence. For both the microscopy and PCR assays, we calculated sensitivity (number of positives by a method divided by the number of positives by either method and discrepancy (one method was negative and the other was positive at the locality, life stage and habitat level. The degree of agreement between PCR and microscopy was determined by calculating Kappa (k values with 95% confidence intervals. Results We observed a high prevalence of T. cruzi infection in T. infestans (81.16% by PCR and 56.52% by microscopy and discovered that PCR is significantly more sensitive than microscopic observation. The overall degree of agreement between the two methods was moderate (Kappa = 0.43 ± 0.07. The level of infection is significantly different among communities; however, prevalence was similar among habitats and life stages. Conclusion PCR was significantly more sensitive than microscopy in all habitats, developmental stages and localities in Chuquisaca, Bolivia. Overall we observed a high prevalence of T. cruzi infection in T. infestans in this area of Bolivia; however, microscopy underestimated infection at all levels examined.

  14. Physical constraints on the likelihood of life on exoplanets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lingam, Manasvi; Loeb, Abraham

    2018-04-01

    One of the most fundamental questions in exoplanetology is to determine whether a given planet is habitable. We estimate the relative likelihood of a planet's propensity towards habitability by considering key physical characteristics such as the role of temperature on ecological and evolutionary processes, and atmospheric losses via hydrodynamic escape and stellar wind erosion. From our analysis, we demonstrate that Earth-sized exoplanets in the habitable zone around M-dwarfs seemingly display much lower prospects of being habitable relative to Earth, owing to the higher incident ultraviolet fluxes and closer distances to the host star. We illustrate our results by specifically computing the likelihood (of supporting life) for the recently discovered exoplanets, Proxima b and TRAPPIST-1e, which we find to be several orders of magnitude smaller than that of Earth.

  15. Likelihood-ratio-based biometric verification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bazen, A.M.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents results on optimal similarity measures for biometric verification based on fixed-length feature vectors. First, we show that the verification of a single user is equivalent to the detection problem, which implies that for single-user verification the likelihood ratio is optimal.

  16. Likelihood Ratio-Based Biometric Verification

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bazen, A.M.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

    The paper presents results on optimal similarity measures for biometric verification based on fixed-length feature vectors. First, we show that the verification of a single user is equivalent to the detection problem, which implies that, for single-user verification, the likelihood ratio is optimal.

  17. Predictors of Self-Reported Likelihood of Working with Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshbaugh, Elaine M.; Gross, Patricia E.; Satrom, Tatum

    2010-01-01

    This study examined the self-reported likelihood of working with older adults in a future career among 237 college undergraduates at a midsized Midwestern university. Although aging anxiety was not significantly related to likelihood of working with older adults, those students who had a greater level of death anxiety were less likely than other…

  18. Factors Associated with Young Adults’ Pregnancy Likelihood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitsantas, Panagiota; Lindley, Lisa L.; Wu, Huichuan

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES While progress has been made to reduce adolescent pregnancies in the United States, rates of unplanned pregnancy among young adults (18–29 years) remain high. In this study, we assessed factors associated with perceived likelihood of pregnancy (likelihood of getting pregnant/getting partner pregnant in the next year) among sexually experienced young adults who were not trying to get pregnant and had ever used contraceptives. METHODS We conducted a secondary analysis of 660 young adults, 18–29 years old in the United States, from the cross-sectional National Survey of Reproductive and Contraceptive Knowledge. Logistic regression and classification tree analyses were conducted to generate profiles of young adults most likely to report anticipating a pregnancy in the next year. RESULTS Nearly one-third (32%) of young adults indicated they believed they had at least some likelihood of becoming pregnant in the next year. Young adults who believed that avoiding pregnancy was not very important were most likely to report pregnancy likelihood (odds ratio [OR], 5.21; 95% CI, 2.80–9.69), as were young adults for whom avoiding a pregnancy was important but not satisfied with their current contraceptive method (OR, 3.93; 95% CI, 1.67–9.24), attended religious services frequently (OR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.52–5.94), were uninsured (OR, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.31–5.26), and were likely to have unprotected sex in the next three months (OR, 1.77; 95% CI, 1.04–3.01). DISCUSSION These results may help guide future research and the development of pregnancy prevention interventions targeting sexually experienced young adults. PMID:25782849

  19. Review of Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion

    OpenAIRE

    藤原, 武弘; 神山, 貴弥

    1989-01-01

    This article mainly introduces Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM), proposed by Petty & Cacioppo, that is, a general attitude change theory. ELM posturates two routes to persuasion; central and peripheral route. Attitude change by central route is viewed as resulting from a diligent consideration of the issue-relevant informations presented. On the other hand, attitude change by peripheral route is viewed as resulting from peripheral cues in the persuasion context. Secondly we compare these tw...

  20. Unbinned likelihood analysis of EGRET observations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Digel, Seth W.

    2000-01-01

    We present a newly-developed likelihood analysis method for EGRET data that defines the likelihood function without binning the photon data or averaging the instrumental response functions. The standard likelihood analysis applied to EGRET data requires the photons to be binned spatially and in energy, and the point-spread functions to be averaged over energy and inclination angle. The full-width half maximum of the point-spread function increases by about 40% from on-axis to 30 degree sign inclination, and depending on the binning in energy can vary by more than that in a single energy bin. The new unbinned method avoids the loss of information that binning and averaging cause and can properly analyze regions where EGRET viewing periods overlap and photons with different inclination angles would otherwise be combined in the same bin. In the poster, we describe the unbinned analysis method and compare its sensitivity with binned analysis for detecting point sources in EGRET data

  1. Corporate governance effect on financial distress likelihood: Evidence from Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Montserrat Manzaneque

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores some mechanisms of corporate governance (ownership and board characteristics in Spanish listed companies and their impact on the likelihood of financial distress. An empirical study was conducted between 2007 and 2012 using a matched-pairs research design with 308 observations, with half of them classified as distressed and non-distressed. Based on the previous study by Pindado, Rodrigues, and De la Torre (2008, a broader concept of bankruptcy is used to define business failure. Employing several conditional logistic models, as well as to other previous studies on bankruptcy, the results confirm that in difficult situations prior to bankruptcy, the impact of board ownership and proportion of independent directors on business failure likelihood are similar to those exerted in more extreme situations. These results go one step further, to offer a negative relationship between board size and the likelihood of financial distress. This result is interpreted as a form of creating diversity and to improve the access to the information and resources, especially in contexts where the ownership is highly concentrated and large shareholders have a great power to influence the board structure. However, the results confirm that ownership concentration does not have a significant impact on financial distress likelihood in the Spanish context. It is argued that large shareholders are passive as regards an enhanced monitoring of management and, alternatively, they do not have enough incentives to hold back the financial distress. These findings have important implications in the Spanish context, where several changes in the regulatory listing requirements have been carried out with respect to corporate governance, and where there is no empirical evidence regarding this respect.

  2. The likelihood principle and its proof – a never-ending story…

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Thomas Martini

    2015-01-01

    An ongoing controversy in philosophy of statistics is the so-called “likelihood principle” essentially stating that all evidence which is obtained from an experiment about an unknown quantity θ is contained in the likelihood function of θ. Common classical statistical methodology, such as the use...... of significance tests, and confidence intervals, depends on the experimental procedure and unrealized events and thus violates the likelihood principle. The likelihood principle was identified by that name and proved in a famous paper by Allan Birnbaum in 1962. However, ever since both the principle itself...... as well as the proof has been highly debated. This presentation will illustrate the debate of both the principle and its proof, from 1962 and up to today. An often-used experiment to illustrate the controversy between classical interpretation and evidential confirmation based on the likelihood principle...

  3. Dimension-Independent Likelihood-Informed MCMC

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Tiangang; Law, Kody; Marzouk, Youssef

    2015-01-01

    Many Bayesian inference problems require exploring the posterior distribution of high-dimensional parameters, which in principle can be described as functions. By exploiting low-dimensional structure in the change from prior to posterior [distributions], we introduce a suite of MCMC samplers that can adapt to the complex structure of the posterior distribution, yet are well-defined on function space. Posterior sampling in nonlinear inverse problems arising from various partial di erential equations and also a stochastic differential equation are used to demonstrate the e ciency of these dimension-independent likelihood-informed samplers.

  4. Multi-Channel Maximum Likelihood Pitch Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Mads Græsbøll

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, a method for multi-channel pitch estimation is proposed. The method is a maximum likelihood estimator and is based on a parametric model where the signals in the various channels share the same fundamental frequency but can have different amplitudes, phases, and noise characteristics....... This essentially means that the model allows for different conditions in the various channels, like different signal-to-noise ratios, microphone characteristics and reverberation. Moreover, the method does not assume that a certain array structure is used but rather relies on a more general model and is hence...

  5. Dimension-Independent Likelihood-Informed MCMC

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Tiangang

    2015-01-07

    Many Bayesian inference problems require exploring the posterior distribution of high-dimensional parameters, which in principle can be described as functions. By exploiting low-dimensional structure in the change from prior to posterior [distributions], we introduce a suite of MCMC samplers that can adapt to the complex structure of the posterior distribution, yet are well-defined on function space. Posterior sampling in nonlinear inverse problems arising from various partial di erential equations and also a stochastic differential equation are used to demonstrate the e ciency of these dimension-independent likelihood-informed samplers.

  6. Approximate maximum parsimony and ancestral maximum likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alon, Noga; Chor, Benny; Pardi, Fabio; Rapoport, Anat

    2010-01-01

    We explore the maximum parsimony (MP) and ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) criteria in phylogenetic tree reconstruction. Both problems are NP-hard, so we seek approximate solutions. We formulate the two problems as Steiner tree problems under appropriate distances. The gist of our approach is the succinct characterization of Steiner trees for a small number of leaves for the two distances. This enables the use of known Steiner tree approximation algorithms. The approach leads to a 16/9 approximation ratio for AML and asymptotically to a 1.55 approximation ratio for MP.

  7. Communicating likelihoods and probabilities in forecasts of volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle, Emma E. H.; McClure, John; Johnston, David M.; Paton, Douglas

    2014-02-01

    The issuing of forecasts and warnings of natural hazard events, such as volcanic eruptions, earthquake aftershock sequences and extreme weather often involves the use of probabilistic terms, particularly when communicated by scientific advisory groups to key decision-makers, who can differ greatly in relative expertise and function in the decision making process. Recipients may also differ in their perception of relative importance of political and economic influences on interpretation. Consequently, the interpretation of these probabilistic terms can vary greatly due to the framing of the statements, and whether verbal or numerical terms are used. We present a review from the psychology literature on how the framing of information influences communication of these probability terms. It is also unclear as to how people rate their perception of an event's likelihood throughout a time frame when a forecast time window is stated. Previous research has identified that, when presented with a 10-year time window forecast, participants viewed the likelihood of an event occurring ‘today’ as being of less than that in year 10. Here we show that this skew in perception also occurs for short-term time windows (under one week) that are of most relevance for emergency warnings. In addition, unlike the long-time window statements, the use of the phrasing “within the next…” instead of “in the next…” does not mitigate this skew, nor do we observe significant differences between the perceived likelihoods of scientists and non-scientists. This finding suggests that effects occurring due to the shorter time window may be ‘masking’ any differences in perception due to wording or career background observed for long-time window forecasts. These results have implications for scientific advice, warning forecasts, emergency management decision-making, and public information as any skew in perceived event likelihood towards the end of a forecast time window may result in

  8. Improved EDELWEISS-III sensitivity for low-mass WIMPs using a profile likelihood approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hehn, L. [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer Kernphysik, Karlsruhe (Germany); Armengaud, E.; Boissiere, T. de; Gros, M.; Navick, X.F.; Nones, C.; Paul, B. [CEA Saclay, DSM/IRFU, Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Arnaud, Q. [Univ Lyon, Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS/IN2P3, Institut de Physique Nucleaire de Lyon, Lyon (France); Queen' s University, Kingston (Canada); Augier, C.; Billard, J.; Cazes, A.; Charlieux, F.; Jesus, M. de; Gascon, J.; Juillard, A.; Queguiner, E.; Sanglard, V.; Vagneron, L. [Univ Lyon, Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS/IN2P3, Institut de Physique Nucleaire de Lyon, Lyon (France); Benoit, A.; Camus, P. [Institut Neel, CNRS/UJF, Grenoble (France); Berge, L.; Chapellier, M.; Dumoulin, L.; Giuliani, A.; Le-Sueur, H.; Marnieros, S.; Olivieri, E.; Poda, D. [CSNSM, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite Paris-Saclay, Orsay (France); Bluemer, J. [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer Kernphysik, Karlsruhe (Germany); Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer Experimentelle Kernphysik, Karlsruhe (Germany); Broniatowski, A. [CSNSM, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite Paris-Saclay, Orsay (France); Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer Experimentelle Kernphysik, Karlsruhe (Germany); Eitel, K.; Kozlov, V.; Siebenborn, B. [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer Kernphysik, Karlsruhe (Germany); Foerster, N.; Heuermann, G.; Scorza, S. [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer Experimentelle Kernphysik, Karlsruhe (Germany); Jin, Y. [Laboratoire de Photonique et de Nanostructures, CNRS, Route de Nozay, Marcoussis (France); Kefelian, C. [Univ Lyon, Universite Claude Bernard Lyon 1, CNRS/IN2P3, Institut de Physique Nucleaire de Lyon, Lyon (France); Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer Experimentelle Kernphysik, Karlsruhe (Germany); Kleifges, M.; Tcherniakhovski, D.; Weber, M. [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer Prozessdatenverarbeitung und Elektronik, Karlsruhe (Germany); Kraus, H. [University of Oxford, Department of Physics, Oxford (United Kingdom); Kudryavtsev, V.A. [University of Sheffield, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Sheffield (United Kingdom); Pari, P. [CEA Saclay, DSM/IRAMIS, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Piro, M.C. [CSNSM, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite Paris-Saclay, Orsay (France); Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY (United States); Rozov, S.; Yakushev, E. [JINR, Laboratory of Nuclear Problems, Dubna, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Schmidt, B. [Karlsruher Institut fuer Technologie, Institut fuer Kernphysik, Karlsruhe (Germany); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-10-15

    We report on a dark matter search for a Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) in the mass range m{sub χ} element of [4, 30] GeV/c{sup 2} with the EDELWEISS-III experiment. A 2D profile likelihood analysis is performed on data from eight selected detectors with the lowest energy thresholds leading to a combined fiducial exposure of 496 kg-days. External backgrounds from γ- and β-radiation, recoils from {sup 206}Pb and neutrons as well as detector intrinsic backgrounds were modelled from data outside the region of interest and constrained in the analysis. The basic data selection and most of the background models are the same as those used in a previously published analysis based on boosted decision trees (BDT) [1]. For the likelihood approach applied in the analysis presented here, a larger signal efficiency and a subtraction of the expected background lead to a higher sensitivity, especially for the lowest WIMP masses probed. No statistically significant signal was found and upper limits on the spin-independent WIMP-nucleon scattering cross section can be set with a hypothesis test based on the profile likelihood test statistics. The 90 % C.L. exclusion limit set for WIMPs with m{sub χ} = 4 GeV/c{sup 2} is 1.6 x 10{sup -39} cm{sup 2}, which is an improvement of a factor of seven with respect to the BDT-based analysis. For WIMP masses above 15 GeV/c{sup 2} the exclusion limits found with both analyses are in good agreement. (orig.)

  9. Process criticality accident likelihoods, consequences and emergency planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McLaughlin, T.P.

    1992-01-01

    Evaluation of criticality accident risks in the processing of significant quantities of fissile materials is both complex and subjective, largely due to the lack of accident statistics. Thus, complying with national and international standards and regulations which require an evaluation of the net benefit of a criticality accident alarm system, is also subjective. A review of guidance found in the literature on potential accident magnitudes is presented for different material forms and arrangements. Reasoned arguments are also presented concerning accident prevention and accident likelihoods for these material forms and arrangements. (Author)

  10. Process criticality accident likelihoods, consequences, and emergency planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLaughlin, T.P.

    1991-01-01

    Evaluation of criticality accident risks in the processing of significant quantities of fissile materials is both complex and subjective, largely due to the lack of accident statistics. Thus, complying with standards such as ISO 7753 which mandates that the need for an alarm system be evaluated, is also subjective. A review of guidance found in the literature on potential accident magnitudes is presented for different material forms and arrangements. Reasoned arguments are also presented concerning accident prevention and accident likelihoods for these material forms and arrangements. 13 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  11. Applying exclusion likelihoods from LHC searches to extended Higgs sectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bechtle, Philip; Heinemeyer, Sven; Staal, Oscar; Stefaniak, Tim; Weiglein, Georg

    2015-01-01

    LHC searches for non-standard Higgs bosons decaying into tau lepton pairs constitute a sensitive experimental probe for physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM), such as supersymmetry (SUSY). Recently, the limits obtained from these searches have been presented by the CMS collaboration in a nearly model-independent fashion - as a narrow resonance model - based on the full 8 TeV dataset. In addition to publishing a 95 % C.L. exclusion limit, the full likelihood information for the narrowresonance model has been released. This provides valuable information that can be incorporated into global BSM fits. We present a simple algorithm that maps an arbitrary model with multiple neutral Higgs bosons onto the narrow resonance model and derives the corresponding value for the exclusion likelihood from the CMS search. This procedure has been implemented into the public computer code HiggsBounds (version 4.2.0 and higher). We validate our implementation by cross-checking against the official CMS exclusion contours in three Higgs benchmark scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), and find very good agreement. Going beyond validation, we discuss the combined constraints of the ττ search and the rate measurements of the SM-like Higgs at 125 GeV in a recently proposed MSSM benchmark scenario, where the lightest Higgs boson obtains SM-like couplings independently of the decoupling of the heavier Higgs states. Technical details for how to access the likelihood information within HiggsBounds are given in the appendix. The program is available at http:// higgsbounds.hepforge.org. (orig.)

  12. A Predictive Likelihood Approach to Bayesian Averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomáš Jeřábek

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Multivariate time series forecasting is applied in a wide range of economic activities related to regional competitiveness and is the basis of almost all macroeconomic analysis. In this paper we combine multivariate density forecasts of GDP growth, inflation and real interest rates from four various models, two type of Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR models, a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE model of small open economy and DSGE-VAR model. The performance of models is identified using historical dates including domestic economy and foreign economy, which is represented by countries of the Eurozone. Because forecast accuracy of observed models are different, the weighting scheme based on the predictive likelihood, the trace of past MSE matrix, model ranks are used to combine the models. The equal-weight scheme is used as a simple combination scheme. The results show that optimally combined densities are comparable to the best individual models.

  13. Subtracting and Fitting Histograms using Profile Likelihood

    CERN Document Server

    D'Almeida, F M L

    2008-01-01

    It is known that many interesting signals expected at LHC are of unknown shape and strongly contaminated by background events. These signals will be dif cult to detect during the rst years of LHC operation due to the initial low luminosity. In this work, one presents a method of subtracting histograms based on the pro le likelihood function when the background is previously estimated by Monte Carlo events and one has low statistics. Estimators for the signal in each bin of the histogram difference are calculated so as limits for the signals with 68.3% of Con dence Level in a low statistics case when one has a exponential background and a Gaussian signal. The method can also be used to t histograms when the signal shape is known. Our results show a good performance and avoid the problem of negative values when subtracting histograms.

  14. Does better access to FPs decrease the likelihood of emergency department use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mian, Oxana; Pong, Raymond

    2012-01-01

    Abstract Objective To determine whether better access to FP services decreases the likelihood of emergency department (ED) use among the Ontario population. Design Population-based telephone survey. Setting Ontario. Participants A total of 8502 Ontario residents aged 16 years and older. Main outcome measures Emergency department use in the 12 months before the survey. Results Among the general population, having a regular FP was associated with having better access to FPs for immediate care (P FPs for immediate care at least once a year; 63.1% of them had seen FPs without difficulties and were significantly less likely to use EDs than those who did not see FPs or had difficulties accessing physicians when needed (OR = 0.62, P FPs (P FPs for immediate care among the general population. Further research is needed to understand what accounts for a higher likelihood of ED use among those with regular FPs, new immigrants, residents of northern and rural areas of Ontario, and people with low socioeconomic status when actual access and sociodemographic characteristics have been taken into consideration. More important, this study demonstrates a need of distinguishing between potential and actual access to care, as having a regular FP and having timely and effective access to FP care might mean different things and have different effects on ED use. PMID:23152473

  15. Modelling maximum likelihood estimation of availability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Waller, R.A.; Tietjen, G.L.; Rock, G.W.

    1975-01-01

    Suppose the performance of a nuclear powered electrical generating power plant is continuously monitored to record the sequence of failure and repairs during sustained operation. The purpose of this study is to assess one method of estimating the performance of the power plant when the measure of performance is availability. That is, we determine the probability that the plant is operational at time t. To study the availability of a power plant, we first assume statistical models for the variables, X and Y, which denote the time-to-failure and the time-to-repair variables, respectively. Once those statistical models are specified, the availability, A(t), can be expressed as a function of some or all of their parameters. Usually those parameters are unknown in practice and so A(t) is unknown. This paper discusses the maximum likelihood estimator of A(t) when the time-to-failure model for X is an exponential density with parameter, lambda, and the time-to-repair model for Y is an exponential density with parameter, theta. Under the assumption of exponential models for X and Y, it follows that the instantaneous availability at time t is A(t)=lambda/(lambda+theta)+theta/(lambda+theta)exp[-[(1/lambda)+(1/theta)]t] with t>0. Also, the steady-state availability is A(infinity)=lambda/(lambda+theta). We use the observations from n failure-repair cycles of the power plant, say X 1 , X 2 , ..., Xsub(n), Y 1 , Y 2 , ..., Ysub(n) to present the maximum likelihood estimators of A(t) and A(infinity). The exact sampling distributions for those estimators and some statistical properties are discussed before a simulation model is used to determine 95% simulation intervals for A(t). The methodology is applied to two examples which approximate the operating history of two nuclear power plants. (author)

  16. Superfast maximum-likelihood reconstruction for quantum tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Jiangwei; Zhang, Zhengyun; Ng, Hui Khoon

    2017-06-01

    Conventional methods for computing maximum-likelihood estimators (MLE) often converge slowly in practical situations, leading to a search for simplifying methods that rely on additional assumptions for their validity. In this work, we provide a fast and reliable algorithm for maximum-likelihood reconstruction that avoids this slow convergence. Our method utilizes the state-of-the-art convex optimization scheme, an accelerated projected-gradient method, that allows one to accommodate the quantum nature of the problem in a different way than in the standard methods. We demonstrate the power of our approach by comparing its performance with other algorithms for n -qubit state tomography. In particular, an eight-qubit situation that purportedly took weeks of computation time in 2005 can now be completed in under a minute for a single set of data, with far higher accuracy than previously possible. This refutes the common claim that MLE reconstruction is slow and reduces the need for alternative methods that often come with difficult-to-verify assumptions. In fact, recent methods assuming Gaussian statistics or relying on compressed sensing ideas are demonstrably inapplicable for the situation under consideration here. Our algorithm can be applied to general optimization problems over the quantum state space; the philosophy of projected gradients can further be utilized for optimization contexts with general constraints.

  17. Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, X.

    2015-12-01

    A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

  18. Parental family variables and likelihood of divorce.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skalkidou, A

    2000-01-01

    It has long been established that divorced men and women have substantially higher standardized general mortality than same gender persons. Because the incidence of divorce is increasing in many countries, determinants of divorce rates assume great importance as indirect risk factors for several diseases and conditions that adversely affect health. We have undertaken a study in Athens, Greece, to evaluate whether sibship size, birth order, and the gender composition of spousal sibships are related to the probability of divorce. 358 high school students, aged between 15 and 17 years, satisfactorily completed anonymous questionnaires, indicating whether their natural parents have been separated or divorced, their parents' educational achievement, birth order and sibship size by gender. The study was analyzed as a twin case-control investigation, treating those divorced or separated as cases and those who were not divorced or separated as controls. A man who grew up as an only child was almost three times as likely to divorce compared to a man with siblings, and this association was highly significant (p approximately 0.004). There was no such evidence with respect to women. After controlling for sibship size, earlier born men--but not women--appeared to be at higher risk for divorce compared to those later born. There was no evidence that the gender structure of the sibship substantially affects the risk for divorce. Even though divorce is not an organic disease, it indirectly affects health as well as the social well-being. The findings of this study need to be replicated, but, if confirmed, they could contribute to our understanding of the roots of some instances of marital dysfunction.

  19. Assessing Individual Weather Risk-Taking and Its Role in Modeling Likelihood of Hurricane Evacuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of perceived risk of different severe and extreme weather conditions using a new self-report measure, the Weather Risk-Taking Scale (WRTS). For 32 severe and extreme situations in which people could perform an unsafe behavior (e. g., remaining outside with lightning striking close by, driving over roadways covered with water, not evacuating ahead of an approaching hurricane, etc.), people rated: 1.their likelihood of performing the behavior, 2. The perceived risk of performing the behavior, 3. the expected benefits of performing the behavior, and 4. whether the behavior has actually been performed in the past. Initial development research with the measure using 246 undergraduate students examined its psychometric properties and found that it was internally consistent (Cronbach's a ranged from .87 to .93 for the four scales) and that the scales possessed good temporal (test-retest) reliability (r's ranged from .84 to .91). A second regression study involving 86 undergraduate students found that taking weather risks was associated with having taken similar risks in one's past and with the personality trait of sensation-seeking. Being more attentive to the weather and perceiving its risks when it became extreme was associated with lower likelihoods of taking weather risks (overall regression model, R2adj = 0.60). A third study involving 334 people examined the contributions of weather risk perceptions and risk-taking in modeling the self-reported likelihood of complying with a recommended evacuation ahead of a hurricane. Here, higher perceptions of hurricane risks and lower perceived benefits of risk-taking along with fear of severe weather and hurricane personal self-efficacy ratings were all statistically significant contributors to the likelihood of evacuating ahead of a hurricane. Psychological rootedness and attachment to one's home also tend to predict lack of evacuation. This research highlights the

  20. Dimension-independent likelihood-informed MCMC

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Tiangang

    2015-10-08

    Many Bayesian inference problems require exploring the posterior distribution of high-dimensional parameters that represent the discretization of an underlying function. This work introduces a family of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers that can adapt to the particular structure of a posterior distribution over functions. Two distinct lines of research intersect in the methods developed here. First, we introduce a general class of operator-weighted proposal distributions that are well defined on function space, such that the performance of the resulting MCMC samplers is independent of the discretization of the function. Second, by exploiting local Hessian information and any associated low-dimensional structure in the change from prior to posterior distributions, we develop an inhomogeneous discretization scheme for the Langevin stochastic differential equation that yields operator-weighted proposals adapted to the non-Gaussian structure of the posterior. The resulting dimension-independent and likelihood-informed (DILI) MCMC samplers may be useful for a large class of high-dimensional problems where the target probability measure has a density with respect to a Gaussian reference measure. Two nonlinear inverse problems are used to demonstrate the efficiency of these DILI samplers: an elliptic PDE coefficient inverse problem and path reconstruction in a conditioned diffusion.

  1. Likelihood Analysis of Supersymmetric SU(5) GUTs

    CERN Document Server

    Bagnaschi, E.

    2017-01-01

    We perform a likelihood analysis of the constraints from accelerator experiments and astrophysical observations on supersymmetric (SUSY) models with SU(5) boundary conditions on soft SUSY-breaking parameters at the GUT scale. The parameter space of the models studied has 7 parameters: a universal gaugino mass $m_{1/2}$, distinct masses for the scalar partners of matter fermions in five- and ten-dimensional representations of SU(5), $m_5$ and $m_{10}$, and for the $\\mathbf{5}$ and $\\mathbf{\\bar 5}$ Higgs representations $m_{H_u}$ and $m_{H_d}$, a universal trilinear soft SUSY-breaking parameter $A_0$, and the ratio of Higgs vevs $\\tan \\beta$. In addition to previous constraints from direct sparticle searches, low-energy and flavour observables, we incorporate constraints based on preliminary results from 13 TeV LHC searches for jets + MET events and long-lived particles, as well as the latest PandaX-II and LUX searches for direct Dark Matter detection. In addition to previously-identified mechanisms for bringi...

  2. Reducing the likelihood of long tennis matches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Tristan; Alan, Brown; Pollard, Graham

    2006-01-01

    Long matches can cause problems for tournaments. For example, the starting times of subsequent matches can be substantially delayed causing inconvenience to players, spectators, officials and television scheduling. They can even be seen as unfair in the tournament setting when the winner of a very long match, who may have negative aftereffects from such a match, plays the winner of an average or shorter length match in the next round. Long matches can also lead to injuries to the participating players. One factor that can lead to long matches is the use of the advantage set as the fifth set, as in the Australian Open, the French Open and Wimbledon. Another factor is long rallies and a greater than average number of points per game. This tends to occur more frequently on the slower surfaces such as at the French Open. The mathematical method of generating functions is used to show that the likelihood of long matches can be substantially reduced by using the tiebreak game in the fifth set, or more effectively by using a new type of game, the 50-40 game, throughout the match. Key PointsThe cumulant generating function has nice properties for calculating the parameters of distributions in a tennis matchA final tiebreaker set reduces the length of matches as currently being used in the US OpenA new 50-40 game reduces the length of matches whilst maintaining comparable probabilities for the better player to win the match.

  3. Dimension-independent likelihood-informed MCMC

    KAUST Repository

    Cui, Tiangang; Law, Kody; Marzouk, Youssef M.

    2015-01-01

    Many Bayesian inference problems require exploring the posterior distribution of high-dimensional parameters that represent the discretization of an underlying function. This work introduces a family of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers that can adapt to the particular structure of a posterior distribution over functions. Two distinct lines of research intersect in the methods developed here. First, we introduce a general class of operator-weighted proposal distributions that are well defined on function space, such that the performance of the resulting MCMC samplers is independent of the discretization of the function. Second, by exploiting local Hessian information and any associated low-dimensional structure in the change from prior to posterior distributions, we develop an inhomogeneous discretization scheme for the Langevin stochastic differential equation that yields operator-weighted proposals adapted to the non-Gaussian structure of the posterior. The resulting dimension-independent and likelihood-informed (DILI) MCMC samplers may be useful for a large class of high-dimensional problems where the target probability measure has a density with respect to a Gaussian reference measure. Two nonlinear inverse problems are used to demonstrate the efficiency of these DILI samplers: an elliptic PDE coefficient inverse problem and path reconstruction in a conditioned diffusion.

  4. Likelihood-Based Inference of B Cell Clonal Families.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duncan K Ralph

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The human immune system depends on a highly diverse collection of antibody-making B cells. B cell receptor sequence diversity is generated by a random recombination process called "rearrangement" forming progenitor B cells, then a Darwinian process of lineage diversification and selection called "affinity maturation." The resulting receptors can be sequenced in high throughput for research and diagnostics. Such a collection of sequences contains a mixture of various lineages, each of which may be quite numerous, or may consist of only a single member. As a step to understanding the process and result of this diversification, one may wish to reconstruct lineage membership, i.e. to cluster sampled sequences according to which came from the same rearrangement events. We call this clustering problem "clonal family inference." In this paper we describe and validate a likelihood-based framework for clonal family inference based on a multi-hidden Markov Model (multi-HMM framework for B cell receptor sequences. We describe an agglomerative algorithm to find a maximum likelihood clustering, two approximate algorithms with various trade-offs of speed versus accuracy, and a third, fast algorithm for finding specific lineages. We show that under simulation these algorithms greatly improve upon existing clonal family inference methods, and that they also give significantly different clusters than previous methods when applied to two real data sets.

  5. Corporate brand extensions based on the purchase likelihood: governance implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spyridon Goumas

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper is examining the purchase likelihood of hypothetical service brand extensions from product companies focusing on consumer electronics based on sector categorization and perceptions of fit between the existing product category and image of the company. Prior research has recognized that levels of brand knowledge eases the transference of associations and affect to the new products. Similarity to the existing products of the parent company and perceived image also influence the success of brand extensions. However, sector categorization may interfere with this relationship. The purpose of this study is to examine Greek consumers’ attitudes towards hypothetical brand extensions, and how these are affected by consumers’ existing knowledge about the brand, sector categorization and perceptions of image and category fit of cross-sector extensions. This aim is examined in the context of technological categories, where less-known companies exhibited significance in purchase likelihood, and contradictory with the existing literature, service companies did not perform as positively as expected. Additional insights to the existing literature about sector categorization are provided. The effect of both image and category fit is also examined and predictions regarding the effect of each are made.

  6. Safe semi-supervised learning based on weighted likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawakita, Masanori; Takeuchi, Jun'ichi

    2014-05-01

    We are interested in developing a safe semi-supervised learning that works in any situation. Semi-supervised learning postulates that n(') unlabeled data are available in addition to n labeled data. However, almost all of the previous semi-supervised methods require additional assumptions (not only unlabeled data) to make improvements on supervised learning. If such assumptions are not met, then the methods possibly perform worse than supervised learning. Sokolovska, Cappé, and Yvon (2008) proposed a semi-supervised method based on a weighted likelihood approach. They proved that this method asymptotically never performs worse than supervised learning (i.e., it is safe) without any assumption. Their method is attractive because it is easy to implement and is potentially general. Moreover, it is deeply related to a certain statistical paradox. However, the method of Sokolovska et al. (2008) assumes a very limited situation, i.e., classification, discrete covariates, n(')→∞ and a maximum likelihood estimator. In this paper, we extend their method by modifying the weight. We prove that our proposal is safe in a significantly wide range of situations as long as n≤n('). Further, we give a geometrical interpretation of the proof of safety through the relationship with the above-mentioned statistical paradox. Finally, we show that the above proposal is asymptotically safe even when n(')

  7. Optimized Large-scale CMB Likelihood and Quadratic Maximum Likelihood Power Spectrum Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gjerløw, E.; Colombo, L. P. L.; Eriksen, H. K.; Górski, K. M.; Gruppuso, A.; Jewell, J. B.; Plaszczynski, S.; Wehus, I. K.

    2015-11-01

    We revisit the problem of exact cosmic microwave background (CMB) likelihood and power spectrum estimation with the goal of minimizing computational costs through linear compression. This idea was originally proposed for CMB purposes by Tegmark et al., and here we develop it into a fully functioning computational framework for large-scale polarization analysis, adopting WMAP as a working example. We compare five different linear bases (pixel space, harmonic space, noise covariance eigenvectors, signal-to-noise covariance eigenvectors, and signal-plus-noise covariance eigenvectors) in terms of compression efficiency, and find that the computationally most efficient basis is the signal-to-noise eigenvector basis, which is closely related to the Karhunen-Loeve and Principal Component transforms, in agreement with previous suggestions. For this basis, the information in 6836 unmasked WMAP sky map pixels can be compressed into a smaller set of 3102 modes, with a maximum error increase of any single multipole of 3.8% at ℓ ≤ 32 and a maximum shift in the mean values of a joint distribution of an amplitude-tilt model of 0.006σ. This compression reduces the computational cost of a single likelihood evaluation by a factor of 5, from 38 to 7.5 CPU seconds, and it also results in a more robust likelihood by implicitly regularizing nearly degenerate modes. Finally, we use the same compression framework to formulate a numerically stable and computationally efficient variation of the Quadratic Maximum Likelihood implementation, which requires less than 3 GB of memory and 2 CPU minutes per iteration for ℓ ≤ 32, rendering low-ℓ QML CMB power spectrum analysis fully tractable on a standard laptop.

  8. Maximum likelihood versus likelihood-free quantum system identification in the atom maser

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Catana, Catalin; Kypraios, Theodore; Guţă, Mădălin

    2014-01-01

    We consider the problem of estimating a dynamical parameter of a Markovian quantum open system (the atom maser), by performing continuous time measurements in the system's output (outgoing atoms). Two estimation methods are investigated and compared. Firstly, the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) takes into account the full measurement data and is asymptotically optimal in terms of its mean square error. Secondly, the ‘likelihood-free’ method of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) produces an approximation of the posterior distribution for a given set of summary statistics, by sampling trajectories at different parameter values and comparing them with the measurement data via chosen statistics. Building on previous results which showed that atom counts are poor statistics for certain values of the Rabi angle, we apply MLE to the full measurement data and estimate its Fisher information. We then select several correlation statistics such as waiting times, distribution of successive identical detections, and use them as input of the ABC algorithm. The resulting posterior distribution follows closely the data likelihood, showing that the selected statistics capture ‘most’ statistical information about the Rabi angle. (paper)

  9. Optimism and spontaneous self-affirmation are associated with lower likelihood of cognitive impairment and greater positive affect among cancer survivors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taber, Jennifer M.; Klein, William M. P.; Ferrer, Rebecca A.; Kent, Erin E.; Harris, Peter R.

    2016-01-01

    Background Optimism and self-affirmation promote adaptive coping, goal achievement, and better health. Purpose To examine the associations of optimism and spontaneous self-affirmation (SSA) with physical, mental, and cognitive health and information seeking among cancer survivors. Methods Cancer survivors (n=326) completed the Health Information National Trends Survey 2013, a national survey of U.S. adults. Participants reported optimism, SSA, cognitive and physical impairment, affect, health status, and information seeking. Results Participants higher in optimism reported better health on nearly all indices examined, even when controlling for SSA. Participants higher in SSA reported lower likelihood of cognitive impairment, greater happiness and hopefulness, and greater likelihood of cancer information seeking. SSA remained significantly associated with greater hopefulness and cancer information seeking when controlling for optimism. Conclusions Optimism and SSA may be associated with beneficial health-related outcomes among cancer survivors. Given the demonstrated malleability of self-affirmation, these findings represent important avenues for future research. PMID:26497697

  10. Optimism and Spontaneous Self-affirmation are Associated with Lower Likelihood of Cognitive Impairment and Greater Positive Affect among Cancer Survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taber, Jennifer M; Klein, William M P; Ferrer, Rebecca A; Kent, Erin E; Harris, Peter R

    2016-04-01

    Optimism and self-affirmation promote adaptive coping, goal achievement, and better health. The aim of this study is to examine the associations of optimism and spontaneous self-affirmation (SSA) with physical, mental, and cognitive health and information seeking among cancer survivors. Cancer survivors (n = 326) completed the Health Information National Trends Survey 2013, a national survey of US adults. Participants reported optimism, SSA, cognitive and physical impairment, affect, health status, and information seeking. Participants higher in optimism reported better health on nearly all indices examined, even when controlling for SSA. Participants higher in SSA reported lower likelihood of cognitive impairment, greater happiness and hopefulness, and greater likelihood of cancer information seeking. SSA remained significantly associated with greater hopefulness and cancer information seeking when controlling for optimism. Optimism and SSA may be associated with beneficial health-related outcomes among cancer survivors. Given the demonstrated malleability of self-affirmation, these findings represent important avenues for future research.

  11. Likelihood analysis of supersymmetric SU(5) GUTs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bagnaschi, E.; Weiglein, G. [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Costa, J.C.; Buchmueller, O.; Citron, M.; Richards, A.; De Vries, K.J. [Imperial College, High Energy Physics Group, Blackett Laboratory, London (United Kingdom); Sakurai, K. [University of Durham, Science Laboratories, Department of Physics, Institute for Particle Physics Phenomenology, Durham (United Kingdom); University of Warsaw, Faculty of Physics, Institute of Theoretical Physics, Warsaw (Poland); Borsato, M.; Chobanova, V.; Lucio, M.; Martinez Santos, D. [Universidade de Santiago de Compostela, Santiago de Compostela (Spain); Cavanaugh, R. [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, Batavia, IL (United States); University of Illinois at Chicago, Physics Department, Chicago, IL (United States); Roeck, A. de [CERN, Experimental Physics Department, Geneva (Switzerland); Antwerp University, Wilrijk (Belgium); Dolan, M.J. [University of Melbourne, ARC Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Terascale, School of Physics, Parkville (Australia); Ellis, J.R. [King' s College London, Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, London (United Kingdom); Theoretical Physics Department, CERN, Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Flaecher, H. [University of Bristol, H.H. Wills Physics Laboratory, Bristol (United Kingdom); Heinemeyer, S. [Campus of International Excellence UAM+CSIC, Cantoblanco, Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fisica Teorica UAM-CSIC, Madrid (Spain); Instituto de Fisica de Cantabria (CSIC-UC), Santander (Spain); Isidori, G. [Universitaet Zuerich, Physik-Institut, Zurich (Switzerland); Olive, K.A. [University of Minnesota, William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

    2017-02-15

    We perform a likelihood analysis of the constraints from accelerator experiments and astrophysical observations on supersymmetric (SUSY) models with SU(5) boundary conditions on soft SUSY-breaking parameters at the GUT scale. The parameter space of the models studied has seven parameters: a universal gaugino mass m{sub 1/2}, distinct masses for the scalar partners of matter fermions in five- and ten-dimensional representations of SU(5), m{sub 5} and m{sub 10}, and for the 5 and anti 5 Higgs representations m{sub H{sub u}} and m{sub H{sub d}}, a universal trilinear soft SUSY-breaking parameter A{sub 0}, and the ratio of Higgs vevs tan β. In addition to previous constraints from direct sparticle searches, low-energy and flavour observables, we incorporate constraints based on preliminary results from 13 TeV LHC searches for jets + E{sub T} events and long-lived particles, as well as the latest PandaX-II and LUX searches for direct Dark Matter detection. In addition to previously identified mechanisms for bringing the supersymmetric relic density into the range allowed by cosmology, we identify a novel u{sub R}/c{sub R} - χ{sup 0}{sub 1} coannihilation mechanism that appears in the supersymmetric SU(5) GUT model and discuss the role of ν{sub τ} coannihilation. We find complementarity between the prospects for direct Dark Matter detection and SUSY searches at the LHC. (orig.)

  12. Likelihood analysis of supersymmetric SU(5) GUTs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bagnaschi, E. [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Costa, J.C. [Imperial College, London (United Kingdom). Blackett Lab.; Sakurai, K. [Durham Univ. (United Kingdom). Inst. for Particle Physics Phenomonology; Warsaw Univ. (Poland). Inst. of Theoretical Physics; Collaboration: MasterCode Collaboration; and others

    2016-10-15

    We perform a likelihood analysis of the constraints from accelerator experiments and astrophysical observations on supersymmetric (SUSY) models with SU(5) boundary conditions on soft SUSY-breaking parameters at the GUT scale. The parameter space of the models studied has 7 parameters: a universal gaugino mass m{sub 1/2}, distinct masses for the scalar partners of matter fermions in five- and ten-dimensional representations of SU(5), m{sub 5} and m{sub 10}, and for the 5 and anti 5 Higgs representations m{sub H{sub u}} and m{sub H{sub d}}, a universal trilinear soft SUSY-breaking parameter A{sub 0}, and the ratio of Higgs vevs tan β. In addition to previous constraints from direct sparticle searches, low-energy and avour observables, we incorporate constraints based on preliminary results from 13 TeV LHC searches for jets+E{sub T} events and long-lived particles, as well as the latest PandaX-II and LUX searches for direct Dark Matter detection. In addition to previously-identified mechanisms for bringing the supersymmetric relic density into the range allowed by cosmology, we identify a novel u{sub R}/c{sub R}-χ{sup 0}{sub 1} coannihilation mechanism that appears in the supersymmetric SU(5) GUT model and discuss the role of ν{sub T} coannihilation. We find complementarity between the prospects for direct Dark Matter detection and SUSY searches at the LHC.

  13. The behavior of the likelihood ratio test for testing missingness

    OpenAIRE

    Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Molenberghs, Geert; Thijs, Herbert

    2003-01-01

    To asses the sensitivity of conclusions to model choices in the context of selection models for non-random dropout, one can oppose the different missing mechanisms to each other; e.g. by the likelihood ratio tests. The finite sample behavior of the null distribution and the power of the likelihood ratio test is studied under a variety of missingness mechanisms. missing data; sensitivity analysis; likelihood ratio test; missing mechanisms

  14. A Non-standard Empirical Likelihood for Time Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nordman, Daniel J.; Bunzel, Helle; Lahiri, Soumendra N.

    Standard blockwise empirical likelihood (BEL) for stationary, weakly dependent time series requires specifying a fixed block length as a tuning parameter for setting confidence regions. This aspect can be difficult and impacts coverage accuracy. As an alternative, this paper proposes a new version...... of BEL based on a simple, though non-standard, data-blocking rule which uses a data block of every possible length. Consequently, the method involves no block selection and is also anticipated to exhibit better coverage performance. Its non-standard blocking scheme, however, induces non......-standard asymptotics and requires a significantly different development compared to standard BEL. We establish the large-sample distribution of log-ratio statistics from the new BEL method for calibrating confidence regions for mean or smooth function parameters of time series. This limit law is not the usual chi...

  15. Penalized Maximum Likelihood Estimation for univariate normal mixture distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ridolfi, A.; Idier, J.

    2001-01-01

    Due to singularities of the likelihood function, the maximum likelihood approach for the estimation of the parameters of normal mixture models is an acknowledged ill posed optimization problem. Ill posedness is solved by penalizing the likelihood function. In the Bayesian framework, it amounts to incorporating an inverted gamma prior in the likelihood function. A penalized version of the EM algorithm is derived, which is still explicit and which intrinsically assures that the estimates are not singular. Numerical evidence of the latter property is put forward with a test

  16. Evaluation of Smoking Prevention Television Messages Based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, Brian S.; Worden, John K.; Bunn, Janice Yanushka; Connolly, Scott W.; Dorwaldt, Anne L.

    2011-01-01

    Progress in reducing youth smoking may depend on developing improved methods to communicate with higher risk youth. This study explored the potential of smoking prevention messages based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to address these needs. Structured evaluations of 12 smoking prevention messages based on three strategies derived from…

  17. Efficient Detection of Repeating Sites to Accelerate Phylogenetic Likelihood Calculations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobert, K; Stamatakis, A; Flouri, T

    2017-03-01

    The phylogenetic likelihood function (PLF) is the major computational bottleneck in several applications of evolutionary biology such as phylogenetic inference, species delimitation, model selection, and divergence times estimation. Given the alignment, a tree and the evolutionary model parameters, the likelihood function computes the conditional likelihood vectors for every node of the tree. Vector entries for which all input data are identical result in redundant likelihood operations which, in turn, yield identical conditional values. Such operations can be omitted for improving run-time and, using appropriate data structures, reducing memory usage. We present a fast, novel method for identifying and omitting such redundant operations in phylogenetic likelihood calculations, and assess the performance improvement and memory savings attained by our method. Using empirical and simulated data sets, we show that a prototype implementation of our method yields up to 12-fold speedups and uses up to 78% less memory than one of the fastest and most highly tuned implementations of the PLF currently available. Our method is generic and can seamlessly be integrated into any phylogenetic likelihood implementation. [Algorithms; maximum likelihood; phylogenetic likelihood function; phylogenetics]. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.

  18. Planck intermediate results: XVI. Profile likelihoods for cosmological parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartlett, J.G.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Delabrouille, J.

    2014-01-01

    We explore the 2013 Planck likelihood function with a high-precision multi-dimensional minimizer (Minuit). This allows a refinement of the CDM best-fit solution with respect to previously-released results, and the construction of frequentist confidence intervals using profile likelihoods. The agr...

  19. Planck 2013 results. XV. CMB power spectra and likelihood

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tauber, Jan; Bartlett, J.G.; Bucher, M.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the Planck 2013 likelihood, a complete statistical description of the two-point correlation function of the CMB temperature fluctuations that accounts for all known relevant uncertainties, both instrumental and astrophysical in nature. We use this likelihood to derive our best...

  20. The modified signed likelihood statistic and saddlepoint approximations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jens Ledet

    1992-01-01

    SUMMARY: For a number of tests in exponential families we show that the use of a normal approximation to the modified signed likelihood ratio statistic r * is equivalent to the use of a saddlepoint approximation. This is also true in a large deviation region where the signed likelihood ratio...... statistic r is of order √ n. © 1992 Biometrika Trust....

  1. Likelihood analysis of parity violation in the compound nucleus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowman, D.; Sharapov, E.

    1993-01-01

    We discuss the determination of the root mean-squared matrix element of the parity-violating interaction between compound-nuclear states using likelihood analysis. We briefly review the relevant features of the statistical model of the compound nucleus and the formalism of likelihood analysis. We then discuss the application of likelihood analysis to data on panty-violating longitudinal asymmetries. The reliability of the extracted value of the matrix element and errors assigned to the matrix element is stressed. We treat the situations where the spins of the p-wave resonances are not known and known using experimental data and Monte Carlo techniques. We conclude that likelihood analysis provides a reliable way to determine M and its confidence interval. We briefly discuss some problems associated with the normalization of the likelihood function

  2. Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

    2014-05-01

    The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model

  3. Novel penalised likelihood reconstruction of PET in the assessment of histologically verified small pulmonary nodules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teoh, Eugene J.; Gleeson, Fergus V.; McGowan, Daniel R.; Bradley, Kevin M.; Belcher, Elizabeth; Black, Edward

    2016-01-01

    Investigate the effect of a novel Bayesian penalised likelihood (BPL) reconstruction algorithm on analysis of pulmonary nodules examined with 18F-FDG PET/CT, and to determine its effect on small, sub-10-mm nodules. 18F-FDG PET/CTs performed for nodule evaluation in 104 patients (121 nodules) were retrospectively reconstructed using the new algorithm, and compared to time-of-flight ordered subset expectation maximisation (OSEM) reconstruction. Nodule and background parameters were analysed semi-quantitatively and visually. BPL compared to OSEM resulted in statistically significant increases in nodule SUV max (mean 5.3 to 8.1, p < 0.00001), signal-to-background (mean 3.6 to 5.3, p < 0.00001) and signal-to-noise (mean 24 to 41, p < 0.00001). Mean percentage increase in SUV max (%ΔSUV max ) was significantly higher in nodules ≤10 mm (n = 31, mean 73 %) compared to >10 mm (n = 90, mean 42 %) (p = 0.025). Increase in signal-to-noise was higher in nodules ≤10 mm (224 %, mean 12 to 27) compared to >10 mm (165 %, mean 28 to 46). When applying optimum SUV max thresholds for detecting malignancy, the sensitivity and accuracy increased using BPL, with the greatest improvements in nodules ≤10 mm. BPL results in a significant increase in signal-to-background and signal-to-noise compared to OSEM. When semi-quantitative analyses to diagnose malignancy are applied, higher SUV max thresholds may be warranted owing to the SUV max increase compared to OSEM. (orig.)

  4. Novel penalised likelihood reconstruction of PET in the assessment of histologically verified small pulmonary nodules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teoh, Eugene J.; Gleeson, Fergus V. [Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, Department of Radiology, Churchill Hospital, Oxford (United Kingdom); University of Oxford, Department of Oncology, Oxford (United Kingdom); McGowan, Daniel R. [University of Oxford, Department of Oncology, Oxford (United Kingdom); Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, Radiation Physics and Protection, Churchill Hospital, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Kevin M. [Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, Department of Radiology, Churchill Hospital, Oxford (United Kingdom); Belcher, Elizabeth; Black, Edward [Oxford University Hospitals NHS Trust, Department of Thoracic Surgery, John Radcliffe Hospital, Oxford (United Kingdom)

    2016-02-15

    Investigate the effect of a novel Bayesian penalised likelihood (BPL) reconstruction algorithm on analysis of pulmonary nodules examined with 18F-FDG PET/CT, and to determine its effect on small, sub-10-mm nodules. 18F-FDG PET/CTs performed for nodule evaluation in 104 patients (121 nodules) were retrospectively reconstructed using the new algorithm, and compared to time-of-flight ordered subset expectation maximisation (OSEM) reconstruction. Nodule and background parameters were analysed semi-quantitatively and visually. BPL compared to OSEM resulted in statistically significant increases in nodule SUV{sub max} (mean 5.3 to 8.1, p < 0.00001), signal-to-background (mean 3.6 to 5.3, p < 0.00001) and signal-to-noise (mean 24 to 41, p < 0.00001). Mean percentage increase in SUV{sub max} (%ΔSUV{sub max}) was significantly higher in nodules ≤10 mm (n = 31, mean 73 %) compared to >10 mm (n = 90, mean 42 %) (p = 0.025). Increase in signal-to-noise was higher in nodules ≤10 mm (224 %, mean 12 to 27) compared to >10 mm (165 %, mean 28 to 46). When applying optimum SUV{sub max} thresholds for detecting malignancy, the sensitivity and accuracy increased using BPL, with the greatest improvements in nodules ≤10 mm. BPL results in a significant increase in signal-to-background and signal-to-noise compared to OSEM. When semi-quantitative analyses to diagnose malignancy are applied, higher SUV{sub max} thresholds may be warranted owing to the SUV{sub max} increase compared to OSEM. (orig.)

  5. Oral Presentations Have a Significantly Higher Publication Rate, But Not Impact Factors, Than Poster Presentations at the International Society for Study of Lumbar Spine meeting: Review of 1126 Abstracts From 2010 to 2012 Meetings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohtori, Seiji; Orita, Sumihisa; Eguchi, Yawara; Aoki, Yasuchika; Suzuki, Miyako; Kubota, Gou; Inage, Kazuhide; Shiga, Yasuhiro; Abe, Koki; Kinoshita, Hideyuki; Inoue, Masahiro; Kanamoto, Hirohito; Norimoto, Masaki; Umimura, Tomotaka; Furuya, Takeo; Masao, Koda; Maki, Satoshi; Akazawa, Tsutomu; Takahashi, Kazuhisa

    2018-03-05

    A retrospective study. The aim of this study was to determine the publication rate and impact factors (IFs) among all abstracts presented at the 2010 and 2012 meetings of the International Society for the Study of Lumbar Spine (ISSLS). The publication rate of abstracts presented at overseas meetings was reported to be around 50%. However, the publication rate and IFs of oral and poster presentations made at ISSLS meetings were unclear. Moreover, whether the publication rates and IFs differed for papers associated with oral or poster presentations at ISSLS meetings was unknown. We investigated all 1126 abstracts (oral, special posters, general posters) presented at ISSLS meetings held between 2010 and 2012. PubMed was searched to identify publications and IFs were determined using journal citation reports. We also compared the publication rates and IFs between oral and poster presentations. The overall publication rate was 50.1% for three ISSLS meetings (564 publications/1126 abstracts). The overall publication rate for oral presentations, special posters, and general posters given in the 2010 to 2012 meetings was 62.0%, 48.3, and 46.6%, respectively. Overall, papers related to oral presentations had significantly higher publication rates than those of special and general posters (P = 0.0002). The average IFs of publications associated with abstracts presented at three ISSLS meetings was 2.802 for oral presentations, 2.593 for special posters, and 2.589 for general posters. There were no significant differences in average IFs between oral and poster presentations (P > 0.05). The publication rate for abstracts presented at ISSLS meetings was high and similar to publication rates for abstracts presented at other meetings concerning orthopedic and spine research. However, there was no significant difference in IFs between oral and poster presentations, suggesting that abstract evaluations cannot predict IFs of the eventual publication. 4.

  6. Predicting Likelihood of Surgery Prior to First Visit in Patients with Back and Lower Extremity Symptoms: A simple mathematical model based on over 8000 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boden, Lauren M; Boden, Stephanie A; Premkumar, Ajay; Gottschalk, Michael B; Boden, Scott D

    2018-02-09

    Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. To create a data-driven triage system stratifying patients by likelihood of undergoing spinal surgery within one year of presentation. Low back pain (LBP) and radicular lower extremity (LE) symptoms are common musculoskeletal problems. There is currently no standard data-derived triage process based on information that can be obtained prior to the initial physician-patient encounter to direct patients to the optimal physician type. We analyzed patient-reported data from 8006 patients with a chief complaint of LBP and/or LE radicular symptoms who presented to surgeons at a large multidisciplinary spine center between September 1, 2005 and June 30, 2016. Univariate and multivariate analysis identified independent risk factors for undergoing spinal surgery within one year of initial visit. A model incorporating these risk factors was created using a random sample of 80% of the total patients in our cohort, and validated on the remaining 20%. The baseline one-year surgery rate within our cohort was 39% for all patients and 42% for patients with LE symptoms. Those identified as high likelihood by the center's existing triage process had a surgery rate of 45%. The new triage scoring system proposed in this study was able to identify a high likelihood group in which 58% underwent surgery, which is a 46% higher surgery rate than in non-triaged patients and a 29% improvement from our institution's existing triage system. The data-driven triage model and scoring system derived and validated in this study (Spine Surgery Likelihood model [SSL-11]), significantly improved existing processes in predicting the likelihood of undergoing spinal surgery within one year of initial presentation. This triage system will allow centers to more selectively screen for surgical candidates and more effectively direct patients to surgeons or non-operative spine specialists. 4.

  7. Is Primary Prostate Cancer Treatment Influenced by Likelihood of Extraprostatic Disease? A Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results Patterns of Care Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, Jordan A.; Wang, Andrew Z.; Hoffman, Karen E.; Hendrix, Laura H.; Rosenman, Julian G.; Carpenter, William R.; Godley, Paul A.; Chen, Ronald C.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To examine the patterns of primary treatment in a recent population-based cohort of prostate cancer patients, stratified by the likelihood of extraprostatic cancer as predicted by disease characteristics available at diagnosis. Methods and Materials: A total of 157,371 patients diagnosed from 2004 to 2008 with clinically localized and potentially curable (node-negative, nonmetastatic) prostate cancer, who have complete information on prostate-specific antigen, Gleason score, and clinical stage, were included. Patients with clinical T1/T2 disease were grouped into categories of 50% likelihood of having extraprostatic disease using the Partin nomogram. Clinical T3/T4 patients were examined separately as the highest-risk group. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between patient group and receipt of each primary treatment, adjusting for age, race, year of diagnosis, marital status, Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database region, and county-level education. Separate models were constructed for primary surgery, external-beam radiotherapy (RT), and conservative management. Results: On multivariable analysis, increasing likelihood of extraprostatic disease was significantly associated with increasing use of RT and decreased conservative management. Use of surgery also increased. Patients with >50% likelihood of extraprostatic cancer had almost twice the odds of receiving prostatectomy as those with 50% likelihood of extraprostatic cancer (34%) and clinical T3–T4 disease (24%). The proportion of patients who received prostatectomy or conservative management was approximately 50% or slightly higher in all groups. Conclusions: There may be underutilization of RT in older prostate cancer patients and those with likely extraprostatic disease. Because more than half of prostate cancer patients do not consult with a radiation oncologist, a multidisciplinary consultation may affect the treatment decision-making process.

  8. Design of Simplified Maximum-Likelihood Receivers for Multiuser CPM Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bing

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A class of simplified maximum-likelihood receivers designed for continuous phase modulation based multiuser systems is proposed. The presented receiver is built upon a front end employing mismatched filters and a maximum-likelihood detector defined in a low-dimensional signal space. The performance of the proposed receivers is analyzed and compared to some existing receivers. Some schemes are designed to implement the proposed receivers and to reveal the roles of different system parameters. Analysis and numerical results show that the proposed receivers can approach the optimum multiuser receivers with significantly (even exponentially in some cases reduced complexity and marginal performance degradation.

  9. Design of simplified maximum-likelihood receivers for multiuser CPM systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bing, Li; Bai, Baoming

    2014-01-01

    A class of simplified maximum-likelihood receivers designed for continuous phase modulation based multiuser systems is proposed. The presented receiver is built upon a front end employing mismatched filters and a maximum-likelihood detector defined in a low-dimensional signal space. The performance of the proposed receivers is analyzed and compared to some existing receivers. Some schemes are designed to implement the proposed receivers and to reveal the roles of different system parameters. Analysis and numerical results show that the proposed receivers can approach the optimum multiuser receivers with significantly (even exponentially in some cases) reduced complexity and marginal performance degradation.

  10. Likelihood Estimation of the Systemic Poison-Induced Morbidity in an Adult North Eastern Romanian Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cătălina Lionte

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Acute exposure to a systemic poison represents an important segment of medical emergencies. We aimed to estimate the likelihood of systemic poison-induced morbidity in a population admitted in a tertiary referral center from North East Romania, based on the determinant factors. Methodology: This was a prospective observational cohort study on adult poisoned patients. Demographic, clinical and laboratory characteristics were recorded in all patients. We analyzed three groups of patients, based on the associated morbidity during hospitalization. We identified significant differences between groups and predictors with significant effects on morbidity using multiple multinomial logistic regressions. ROC analysis proved that a combination of tests could improve diagnostic accuracy of poison-related morbidity. Main findings: Of the 180 patients included, aged 44.7 ± 17.2 years, 51.1% males, 49.4% had no poison-related morbidity, 28.9% developed a mild morbidity, and 21.7% had a severe morbidity, followed by death in 16 patients (8.9%. Multiple complications and deaths were recorded in patients aged 53.4 ± 17.6 years (p .001, with a lower Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS score upon admission and a significantly higher heart rate (101 ± 32 beats/min, p .011. Routine laboratory tests were significantly higher in patients with a recorded morbidity. Multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a GCS < 8, a high white blood cells count (WBC, alanine aminotransferase (ALAT, myoglobin, glycemia and brain natriuretic peptide (BNP are strongly predictive for in-hospital severe morbidity. Originality: This is the first Romanian prospective study on adult poisoned patients, which identifies the factors responsible for in-hospital morbidity using logistic regression analyses, with resulting receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. Conclusion: In acute intoxication with systemic poisons, we identified several clinical and laboratory variables

  11. Maximum Likelihood Blind Channel Estimation for Space-Time Coding Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hakan A. Çırpan

    2002-05-01

    Full Text Available Sophisticated signal processing techniques have to be developed for capacity enhancement of future wireless communication systems. In recent years, space-time coding is proposed to provide significant capacity gains over the traditional communication systems in fading wireless channels. Space-time codes are obtained by combining channel coding, modulation, transmit diversity, and optional receive diversity in order to provide diversity at the receiver and coding gain without sacrificing the bandwidth. In this paper, we consider the problem of blind estimation of space-time coded signals along with the channel parameters. Both conditional and unconditional maximum likelihood approaches are developed and iterative solutions are proposed. The conditional maximum likelihood algorithm is based on iterative least squares with projection whereas the unconditional maximum likelihood approach is developed by means of finite state Markov process modelling. The performance analysis issues of the proposed methods are studied. Finally, some simulation results are presented.

  12. Low Birthweight Increases the Likelihood of Severe Steatosis in Pediatric Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugianesi, Elisabetta; Bizzarri, Carla; Rosso, Chiara; Mosca, Antonella; Panera, Nadia; Veraldi, Silvio; Dotta, Andrea; Giannone, Germana; Raponi, Massimiliano; Cappa, Marco; Alisi, Anna; Nobili, Valerio

    2017-08-01

    Small for gestational age (SGA) is associated with an increased risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Our aim was to investigate the correlation of birthweight with the severity of liver damage in a large cohort of children with NAFLD. Two hundred and eighty-eight consecutive Caucasian Italian overweight/obese children with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included in the study. We examined the relative association of each histological feature of NAFLD with metabolic alterations, insulin-resistance, I148M polymorphism in the patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3) gene, and birthweight relative to gestational age. In the whole NAFLD cohort, 12.2% of patients were SGA, 62.8% appropriate for gestational age (AGA), and 25% large for gestational age (LGA). SGA children had a higher prevalence of severe steatosis (69%) and severe portal inflammation (14%) compared with the AGA and LGA groups. Notably, severe steatosis (>66%) was decreasing from SGA to AGA and LGA, whereas the prevalence of moderate steatosis (33-66%) was similar in three groups. The prevalence of type 1 NAFLD is higher in the LGA group with respect to the other two groups (25% vs.5.2% vs.9.4%), whereas the SGA group shows a higher prevalence of overlap type (85.8%) with respect to the LGA group (51.4%) but not compared with the AGA group (75%). At multivariable regression analysis, SGA at birth increased fourfold the likelihood of severe steatosis (odds ratio (OR) 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.43-10.9, P=0.008) and threefold the likelihood of NAFLD Activity Score (NAS)≥5 (OR 2.98, 95% CI 1.06-8.33, P=0.037) independently of homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance and PNPLA3 genotype. The PNPLA3-CC wild-type genotype was the strongest independent predictor of the absence of significant fibrosis (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.13-0.52, P=<0.001). In children with NAFLD, the risk of severe steatosis is increased by SGA at birth, independent of and in addition to other

  13. Greenery in the university environment: Students’ preferences and perceived restoration likelihood

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-01

    A large body of evidence shows that interaction with greenery can be beneficial for human stress reduction, emotional states, and improved cognitive function. It can, therefore, be expected that university students might benefit from greenery in the university environment. Before investing in real-life interventions in a university environment, it is necessary to first explore students’ perceptions of greenery in the university environment. This study examined (1) preference for university indoor and outdoor spaces with and without greenery (2) perceived restoration likelihood of university outdoor spaces with and without greenery and (3) if preference and perceived restoration likelihood ratings were modified by demographic characteristics or connectedness to nature in Dutch university students (N = 722). Digital photographic stimuli represented four university spaces (lecture hall, classroom, study area, university outdoor space). For each of the three indoor spaces there were four or five stimuli conditions: (1) the standard design (2) the standard design with a colorful poster (3) the standard design with a nature poster (4) the standard design with a green wall (5) the standard design with a green wall plus interior plants. The university outdoor space included: (1) the standard design (2) the standard design with seating (3) the standard design with colorful artifacts (4) the standard design with green elements (5) the standard design with extensive greenery. Multi-level analyses showed that students gave higher preference ratings to the indoor spaces with a nature poster, a green wall, or a green wall plus interior plants than to the standard designs and the designs with the colorful posters. Students also rated preference and perceived restoration likelihood of the outdoor spaces that included greenery higher than those without. Preference and perceived restoration likelihood were not modified by demographic characteristics, but students with strong

  14. Greenery in the university environment: Students' preferences and perceived restoration likelihood.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole van den Bogerd

    Full Text Available A large body of evidence shows that interaction with greenery can be beneficial for human stress reduction, emotional states, and improved cognitive function. It can, therefore, be expected that university students might benefit from greenery in the university environment. Before investing in real-life interventions in a university environment, it is necessary to first explore students' perceptions of greenery in the university environment. This study examined (1 preference for university indoor and outdoor spaces with and without greenery (2 perceived restoration likelihood of university outdoor spaces with and without greenery and (3 if preference and perceived restoration likelihood ratings were modified by demographic characteristics or connectedness to nature in Dutch university students (N = 722. Digital photographic stimuli represented four university spaces (lecture hall, classroom, study area, university outdoor space. For each of the three indoor spaces there were four or five stimuli conditions: (1 the standard design (2 the standard design with a colorful poster (3 the standard design with a nature poster (4 the standard design with a green wall (5 the standard design with a green wall plus interior plants. The university outdoor space included: (1 the standard design (2 the standard design with seating (3 the standard design with colorful artifacts (4 the standard design with green elements (5 the standard design with extensive greenery. Multi-level analyses showed that students gave higher preference ratings to the indoor spaces with a nature poster, a green wall, or a green wall plus interior plants than to the standard designs and the designs with the colorful posters. Students also rated preference and perceived restoration likelihood of the outdoor spaces that included greenery higher than those without. Preference and perceived restoration likelihood were not modified by demographic characteristics, but students with strong

  15. Greenery in the university environment: Students' preferences and perceived restoration likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Bogerd, Nicole; Dijkstra, S Coosje; Seidell, Jacob C; Maas, Jolanda

    2018-01-01

    A large body of evidence shows that interaction with greenery can be beneficial for human stress reduction, emotional states, and improved cognitive function. It can, therefore, be expected that university students might benefit from greenery in the university environment. Before investing in real-life interventions in a university environment, it is necessary to first explore students' perceptions of greenery in the university environment. This study examined (1) preference for university indoor and outdoor spaces with and without greenery (2) perceived restoration likelihood of university outdoor spaces with and without greenery and (3) if preference and perceived restoration likelihood ratings were modified by demographic characteristics or connectedness to nature in Dutch university students (N = 722). Digital photographic stimuli represented four university spaces (lecture hall, classroom, study area, university outdoor space). For each of the three indoor spaces there were four or five stimuli conditions: (1) the standard design (2) the standard design with a colorful poster (3) the standard design with a nature poster (4) the standard design with a green wall (5) the standard design with a green wall plus interior plants. The university outdoor space included: (1) the standard design (2) the standard design with seating (3) the standard design with colorful artifacts (4) the standard design with green elements (5) the standard design with extensive greenery. Multi-level analyses showed that students gave higher preference ratings to the indoor spaces with a nature poster, a green wall, or a green wall plus interior plants than to the standard designs and the designs with the colorful posters. Students also rated preference and perceived restoration likelihood of the outdoor spaces that included greenery higher than those without. Preference and perceived restoration likelihood were not modified by demographic characteristics, but students with strong

  16. Testing Significance Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim I. Krueger

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The practice of Significance Testing (ST remains widespread in psychological science despite continual criticism of its flaws and abuses. Using simulation experiments, we address four concerns about ST and for two of these we compare ST’s performance with prominent alternatives. We find the following: First, the 'p' values delivered by ST predict the posterior probability of the tested hypothesis well under many research conditions. Second, low 'p' values support inductive inferences because they are most likely to occur when the tested hypothesis is false. Third, 'p' values track likelihood ratios without raising the uncertainties of relative inference. Fourth, 'p' values predict the replicability of research findings better than confidence intervals do. Given these results, we conclude that 'p' values may be used judiciously as a heuristic tool for inductive inference. Yet, 'p' values cannot bear the full burden of inference. We encourage researchers to be flexible in their selection and use of statistical methods.

  17. Application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Attitude Change to Assertion Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ernst, John M.; Heesacker, Martin

    1993-01-01

    College students (n=113) participated in study comparing effects of elaboration likelihood model (ELM) based assertion workshop with those of typical assertion workshop. ELM-based workshop was significantly better at producing favorable attitude change, greater intention to act assertively, and more favorable evaluations of workshop content.…

  18. Likelihood for transcriptions in a genetic regulatory system under asymmetric stable Lévy noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hui; Cheng, Xiujun; Duan, Jinqiao; Kurths, Jürgen; Li, Xiaofan

    2018-01-01

    This work is devoted to investigating the evolution of concentration in a genetic regulation system, when the synthesis reaction rate is under additive and multiplicative asymmetric stable Lévy fluctuations. By focusing on the impact of skewness (i.e., non-symmetry) in the probability distributions of noise, we find that via examining the mean first exit time (MFET) and the first escape probability (FEP), the asymmetric fluctuations, interacting with nonlinearity in the system, lead to peculiar likelihood for transcription. This includes, in the additive noise case, realizing higher likelihood of transcription for larger positive skewness (i.e., asymmetry) index β, causing a stochastic bifurcation at the non-Gaussianity index value α = 1 (i.e., it is a separating point or line for the likelihood for transcription), and achieving a turning point at the threshold value β≈-0.5 (i.e., beyond which the likelihood for transcription suddenly reversed for α values). The stochastic bifurcation and turning point phenomena do not occur in the symmetric noise case (β = 0). While in the multiplicative noise case, non-Gaussianity index value α = 1 is a separating point or line for both the MFET and the FEP. We also investigate the noise enhanced stability phenomenon. Additionally, we are able to specify the regions in the whole parameter space for the asymmetric noise, in which we attain desired likelihood for transcription. We have conducted a series of numerical experiments in "regulating" the likelihood of gene transcription by tuning asymmetric stable Lévy noise indexes. This work offers insights for possible ways of achieving gene regulation in experimental research.

  19. Posterior distributions for likelihood ratios in forensic science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Hout, Ardo; Alberink, Ivo

    2016-09-01

    Evaluation of evidence in forensic science is discussed using posterior distributions for likelihood ratios. Instead of eliminating the uncertainty by integrating (Bayes factor) or by conditioning on parameter values, uncertainty in the likelihood ratio is retained by parameter uncertainty derived from posterior distributions. A posterior distribution for a likelihood ratio can be summarised by the median and credible intervals. Using the posterior mean of the distribution is not recommended. An analysis of forensic data for body height estimation is undertaken. The posterior likelihood approach has been criticised both theoretically and with respect to applicability. This paper addresses the latter and illustrates an interesting application area. Copyright © 2016 The Chartered Society of Forensic Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Practical likelihood analysis for spatial generalized linear mixed models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bonat, W. H.; Ribeiro, Paulo Justiniano

    2016-01-01

    We investigate an algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of spatial generalized linear mixed models based on the Laplace approximation. We compare our algorithm with a set of alternative approaches for two datasets from the literature. The Rhizoctonia root rot and the Rongelap are......, respectively, examples of binomial and count datasets modeled by spatial generalized linear mixed models. Our results show that the Laplace approximation provides similar estimates to Markov Chain Monte Carlo likelihood, Monte Carlo expectation maximization, and modified Laplace approximation. Some advantages...... of Laplace approximation include the computation of the maximized log-likelihood value, which can be used for model selection and tests, and the possibility to obtain realistic confidence intervals for model parameters based on profile likelihoods. The Laplace approximation also avoids the tuning...

  1. Algorithms of maximum likelihood data clustering with applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giada, Lorenzo; Marsili, Matteo

    2002-12-01

    We address the problem of data clustering by introducing an unsupervised, parameter-free approach based on maximum likelihood principle. Starting from the observation that data sets belonging to the same cluster share a common information, we construct an expression for the likelihood of any possible cluster structure. The likelihood in turn depends only on the Pearson's coefficient of the data. We discuss clustering algorithms that provide a fast and reliable approximation to maximum likelihood configurations. Compared to standard clustering methods, our approach has the advantages that (i) it is parameter free, (ii) the number of clusters need not be fixed in advance and (iii) the interpretation of the results is transparent. In order to test our approach and compare it with standard clustering algorithms, we analyze two very different data sets: time series of financial market returns and gene expression data. We find that different maximization algorithms produce similar cluster structures whereas the outcome of standard algorithms has a much wider variability.

  2. Generalized empirical likelihood methods for analyzing longitudinal data

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, S.; Qian, L.; Carroll, R. J.

    2010-01-01

    Efficient estimation of parameters is a major objective in analyzing longitudinal data. We propose two generalized empirical likelihood based methods that take into consideration within-subject correlations. A nonparametric version of the Wilks

  3. Maximum likelihood estimation of finite mixture model for economic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-06-01

    Finite mixture model is a mixture model with finite-dimension. This models are provides a natural representation of heterogeneity in a finite number of latent classes. In addition, finite mixture models also known as latent class models or unsupervised learning models. Recently, maximum likelihood estimation fitted finite mixture models has greatly drawn statistician's attention. The main reason is because maximum likelihood estimation is a powerful statistical method which provides consistent findings as the sample sizes increases to infinity. Thus, the application of maximum likelihood estimation is used to fit finite mixture model in the present paper in order to explore the relationship between nonlinear economic data. In this paper, a two-component normal mixture model is fitted by maximum likelihood estimation in order to investigate the relationship among stock market price and rubber price for sampled countries. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and stock market price for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia.

  4. Attitude towards, and likelihood of, complaining in the banking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    aims to determine customers' attitudes towards complaining as well as their likelihood of voicing a .... is particularly powerful and impacts greatly on customer satisfaction and retention. ...... 'Cross-national analysis of hotel customers' attitudes ...

  5. Narrow band interference cancelation in OFDM: Astructured maximum likelihood approach

    KAUST Repository

    Sohail, Muhammad Sadiq; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.; Al-Ghadhban, Samir N.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a maximum likelihood (ML) approach to mitigate the effect of narrow band interference (NBI) in a zero padded orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (ZP-OFDM) system. The NBI is assumed to be time variant and asynchronous

  6. On the likelihood function of Gaussian max-stable processes

    KAUST Repository

    Genton, M. G.; Ma, Y.; Sang, H.

    2011-01-01

    We derive a closed form expression for the likelihood function of a Gaussian max-stable process indexed by ℝd at p≤d+1 sites, d≥1. We demonstrate the gain in efficiency in the maximum composite likelihood estimators of the covariance matrix from p=2 to p=3 sites in ℝ2 by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study. © 2011 Biometrika Trust.

  7. Incorporating Nuisance Parameters in Likelihoods for Multisource Spectra

    CERN Document Server

    Conway, J.S.

    2011-01-01

    We describe here the general mathematical approach to constructing likelihoods for fitting observed spectra in one or more dimensions with multiple sources, including the effects of systematic uncertainties represented as nuisance parameters, when the likelihood is to be maximized with respect to these parameters. We consider three types of nuisance parameters: simple multiplicative factors, source spectra "morphing" parameters, and parameters representing statistical uncertainties in the predicted source spectra.

  8. On the likelihood function of Gaussian max-stable processes

    KAUST Repository

    Genton, M. G.

    2011-05-24

    We derive a closed form expression for the likelihood function of a Gaussian max-stable process indexed by ℝd at p≤d+1 sites, d≥1. We demonstrate the gain in efficiency in the maximum composite likelihood estimators of the covariance matrix from p=2 to p=3 sites in ℝ2 by means of a Monte Carlo simulation study. © 2011 Biometrika Trust.

  9. Tapered composite likelihood for spatial max-stable models

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan

    2014-05-01

    Spatial extreme value analysis is useful to environmental studies, in which extreme value phenomena are of interest and meaningful spatial patterns can be discerned. Max-stable process models are able to describe such phenomena. This class of models is asymptotically justified to characterize the spatial dependence among extremes. However, likelihood inference is challenging for such models because their corresponding joint likelihood is unavailable and only bivariate or trivariate distributions are known. In this paper, we propose a tapered composite likelihood approach by utilizing lower dimensional marginal likelihoods for inference on parameters of various max-stable process models. We consider a weighting strategy based on a "taper range" to exclude distant pairs or triples. The "optimal taper range" is selected to maximize various measures of the Godambe information associated with the tapered composite likelihood function. This method substantially reduces the computational cost and improves the efficiency over equally weighted composite likelihood estimators. We illustrate its utility with simulation experiments and an analysis of rainfall data in Switzerland.

  10. Dissociating response conflict and error likelihood in anterior cingulate cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeung, Nick; Nieuwenhuis, Sander

    2009-11-18

    Neuroimaging studies consistently report activity in anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) in conditions of high cognitive demand, leading to the view that ACC plays a crucial role in the control of cognitive processes. According to one prominent theory, the sensitivity of ACC to task difficulty reflects its role in monitoring for the occurrence of competition, or "conflict," between responses to signal the need for increased cognitive control. However, a contrasting theory proposes that ACC is the recipient rather than source of monitoring signals, and that ACC activity observed in relation to task demand reflects the role of this region in learning about the likelihood of errors. Response conflict and error likelihood are typically confounded, making the theories difficult to distinguish empirically. The present research therefore used detailed computational simulations to derive contrasting predictions regarding ACC activity and error rate as a function of response speed. The simulations demonstrated a clear dissociation between conflict and error likelihood: fast response trials are associated with low conflict but high error likelihood, whereas slow response trials show the opposite pattern. Using the N2 component as an index of ACC activity, an EEG study demonstrated that when conflict and error likelihood are dissociated in this way, ACC activity tracks conflict and is negatively correlated with error likelihood. These findings support the conflict-monitoring theory and suggest that, in speeded decision tasks, ACC activity reflects current task demands rather than the retrospective coding of past performance.

  11. Tapered composite likelihood for spatial max-stable models

    KAUST Repository

    Sang, Huiyan; Genton, Marc G.

    2014-01-01

    Spatial extreme value analysis is useful to environmental studies, in which extreme value phenomena are of interest and meaningful spatial patterns can be discerned. Max-stable process models are able to describe such phenomena. This class of models is asymptotically justified to characterize the spatial dependence among extremes. However, likelihood inference is challenging for such models because their corresponding joint likelihood is unavailable and only bivariate or trivariate distributions are known. In this paper, we propose a tapered composite likelihood approach by utilizing lower dimensional marginal likelihoods for inference on parameters of various max-stable process models. We consider a weighting strategy based on a "taper range" to exclude distant pairs or triples. The "optimal taper range" is selected to maximize various measures of the Godambe information associated with the tapered composite likelihood function. This method substantially reduces the computational cost and improves the efficiency over equally weighted composite likelihood estimators. We illustrate its utility with simulation experiments and an analysis of rainfall data in Switzerland.

  12. Efficient algorithms for maximum likelihood decoding in the surface code

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bravyi, Sergey; Suchara, Martin; Vargo, Alexander

    2014-09-01

    We describe two implementations of the optimal error correction algorithm known as the maximum likelihood decoder (MLD) for the two-dimensional surface code with a noiseless syndrome extraction. First, we show how to implement MLD exactly in time O (n2), where n is the number of code qubits. Our implementation uses a reduction from MLD to simulation of matchgate quantum circuits. This reduction however requires a special noise model with independent bit-flip and phase-flip errors. Secondly, we show how to implement MLD approximately for more general noise models using matrix product states (MPS). Our implementation has running time O (nχ3), where χ is a parameter that controls the approximation precision. The key step of our algorithm, borrowed from the density matrix renormalization-group method, is a subroutine for contracting a tensor network on the two-dimensional grid. The subroutine uses MPS with a bond dimension χ to approximate the sequence of tensors arising in the course of contraction. We benchmark the MPS-based decoder against the standard minimum weight matching decoder observing a significant reduction of the logical error probability for χ ≥4.

  13. Maximum likelihood sequence estimation for optical complex direct modulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che, Di; Yuan, Feng; Shieh, William

    2017-04-17

    Semiconductor lasers are versatile optical transmitters in nature. Through the direct modulation (DM), the intensity modulation is realized by the linear mapping between the injection current and the light power, while various angle modulations are enabled by the frequency chirp. Limited by the direct detection, DM lasers used to be exploited only as 1-D (intensity or angle) transmitters by suppressing or simply ignoring the other modulation. Nevertheless, through the digital coherent detection, simultaneous intensity and angle modulations (namely, 2-D complex DM, CDM) can be realized by a single laser diode. The crucial technique of CDM is the joint demodulation of intensity and differential phase with the maximum likelihood sequence estimation (MLSE), supported by a closed-form discrete signal approximation of frequency chirp to characterize the MLSE transition probability. This paper proposes a statistical method for the transition probability to significantly enhance the accuracy of the chirp model. Using the statistical estimation, we demonstrate the first single-channel 100-Gb/s PAM-4 transmission over 1600-km fiber with only 10G-class DM lasers.

  14. Scale invariant for one-sided multivariate likelihood ratio tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samruam Chongcharoen

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Suppose 1 2 , ,..., n X X X is a random sample from Np ( ,V distribution. Consider 0 1 2 : ... 0 p H      and1 : 0 for 1, 2,..., i H   i  p , let 1 0 H  H denote the hypothesis that 1 H holds but 0 H does not, and let ~ 0 H denote thehypothesis that 0 H does not hold. Because the likelihood ratio test (LRT of 0 H versus 1 0 H  H is complicated, severalad hoc tests have been proposed. Tang, Gnecco and Geller (1989 proposed an approximate LRT, Follmann (1996 suggestedrejecting 0 H if the usual test of 0 H versus ~ 0 H rejects 0 H with significance level 2 and a weighted sum of the samplemeans is positive, and Chongcharoen, Singh and Wright (2002 modified Follmann’s test to include information about thecorrelation structure in the sum of the sample means. Chongcharoen and Wright (2007, 2006 give versions of the Tang-Gnecco-Geller tests and Follmann-type tests, respectively, with invariance properties. With LRT’s scale invariant desiredproperty, we investigate its powers by using Monte Carlo techniques and compare them with the tests which we recommendin Chongcharoen and Wright (2007, 2006.

  15. Quantifying uncertainty, variability and likelihood for ordinary differential equation models

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Weisse, Andrea Y

    2010-10-28

    Abstract Background In many applications, ordinary differential equation (ODE) models are subject to uncertainty or variability in initial conditions and parameters. Both, uncertainty and variability can be quantified in terms of a probability density function on the state and parameter space. Results The partial differential equation that describes the evolution of this probability density function has a form that is particularly amenable to application of the well-known method of characteristics. The value of the density at some point in time is directly accessible by the solution of the original ODE extended by a single extra dimension (for the value of the density). This leads to simple methods for studying uncertainty, variability and likelihood, with significant advantages over more traditional Monte Carlo and related approaches especially when studying regions with low probability. Conclusions While such approaches based on the method of characteristics are common practice in other disciplines, their advantages for the study of biological systems have so far remained unrecognized. Several examples illustrate performance and accuracy of the approach and its limitations.

  16. Constructing diagnostic likelihood: clinical decisions using subjective versus statistical probability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnear, John; Jackson, Ruth

    2017-07-01

    Although physicians are highly trained in the application of evidence-based medicine, and are assumed to make rational decisions, there is evidence that their decision making is prone to biases. One of the biases that has been shown to affect accuracy of judgements is that of representativeness and base-rate neglect, where the saliency of a person's features leads to overestimation of their likelihood of belonging to a group. This results in the substitution of 'subjective' probability for statistical probability. This study examines clinicians' propensity to make estimations of subjective probability when presented with clinical information that is considered typical of a medical condition. The strength of the representativeness bias is tested by presenting choices in textual and graphic form. Understanding of statistical probability is also tested by omitting all clinical information. For the questions that included clinical information, 46.7% and 45.5% of clinicians made judgements of statistical probability, respectively. Where the question omitted clinical information, 79.9% of clinicians made a judgement consistent with statistical probability. There was a statistically significant difference in responses to the questions with and without representativeness information (χ2 (1, n=254)=54.45, pprobability. One of the causes for this representativeness bias may be the way clinical medicine is taught where stereotypic presentations are emphasised in diagnostic decision making. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  17. An Efficient UD-Based Algorithm for the Computation of Maximum Likelihood Sensitivity of Continuous-Discrete Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boiroux, Dimitri; Juhl, Rune; Madsen, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    This paper addresses maximum likelihood parameter estimation of continuous-time nonlinear systems with discrete-time measurements. We derive an efficient algorithm for the computation of the log-likelihood function and its gradient, which can be used in gradient-based optimization algorithms....... This algorithm uses UD decomposition of symmetric matrices and the array algorithm for covariance update and gradient computation. We test our algorithm on the Lotka-Volterra equations. Compared to the maximum likelihood estimation based on finite difference gradient computation, we get a significant speedup...

  18. Does better access to FPs decrease the likelihood of emergency department use? Results from the Primary Care Access Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mian, Oxana; Pong, Raymond

    2012-11-01

    To determine whether better access to FP services decreases the likelihood of emergency department (ED) use among the Ontario population. Population-based telephone survey. Ontario. A total of 8502 Ontario residents aged 16 years and older. Emergency department use in the 12 months before the survey. Among the general population, having a regular FP was associated with having better access to FPs for immediate care (P FPs for immediate care at least once a year; 63.1% of them had seen FPs without difficulties and were significantly less likely to use EDs than those who did not see FPs or had difficulties accessing physicians when needed (OR = 0.62, P FPs (P FPs for immediate care among the general population. Further research is needed to understand what accounts for a higher likelihood of ED use among those with regular FPs, new immigrants, residents of northern and rural areas of Ontario, and people with low socioeconomic status when actual access and sociodemographic characteristics have been taken into consideration. More important, this study demonstrates a need of distinguishing between potential and actual access to care, as having a regular FP and having timely and effective access to FP care might mean different things and have different effects on ED use.

  19. Imagination perspective affects ratings of the likelihood of occurrence of autobiographical memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Benjamin U; Pezdek, Kathy; Lam, Shirley T

    2014-07-01

    Two experiments tested and confirmed the hypothesis that when the phenomenological characteristics of imagined events are more similar to those of related autobiographical memories, the imagined event is more likely to be considered to have occurred. At Time 1 and 2-weeks later, individuals rated the likelihood of occurrence for 20 life events. In Experiment 1, 1-week after Time 1, individuals imagined 3 childhood events from a first-person or third-person perspective. There was a no-imagination control. An increase in likelihood ratings from Time 1 to Time 2 resulted when imagination was from the third-person but not first-person perspective. In Experiment 2, childhood and recent events were imagined from a third- or first-person perspective. A significant interaction resulted. For childhood events, likelihood change scores were greater for third-person than first-person perspective; for recent adult events, likelihood change scores were greater for first-person than third-person perspective, although this latter trend was not significant. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Constraint likelihood analysis for a network of gravitational wave detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimenko, S.; Rakhmanov, M.; Mitselmakher, G.; Mohanty, S.

    2005-01-01

    We propose a coherent method for detection and reconstruction of gravitational wave signals with a network of interferometric detectors. The method is derived by using the likelihood ratio functional for unknown signal waveforms. In the likelihood analysis, the global maximum of the likelihood ratio over the space of waveforms is used as the detection statistic. We identify a problem with this approach. In the case of an aligned pair of detectors, the detection statistic depends on the cross correlation between the detectors as expected, but this dependence disappears even for infinitesimally small misalignments. We solve the problem by applying constraints on the likelihood functional and obtain a new class of statistics. The resulting method can be applied to data from a network consisting of any number of detectors with arbitrary detector orientations. The method allows us reconstruction of the source coordinates and the waveforms of two polarization components of a gravitational wave. We study the performance of the method with numerical simulations and find the reconstruction of the source coordinates to be more accurate than in the standard likelihood method

  1. Profile-likelihood Confidence Intervals in Item Response Theory Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalmers, R Philip; Pek, Jolynn; Liu, Yang

    2017-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) are fundamental inferential devices which quantify the sampling variability of parameter estimates. In item response theory, CIs have been primarily obtained from large-sample Wald-type approaches based on standard error estimates, derived from the observed or expected information matrix, after parameters have been estimated via maximum likelihood. An alternative approach to constructing CIs is to quantify sampling variability directly from the likelihood function with a technique known as profile-likelihood confidence intervals (PL CIs). In this article, we introduce PL CIs for item response theory models, compare PL CIs to classical large-sample Wald-type CIs, and demonstrate important distinctions among these CIs. CIs are then constructed for parameters directly estimated in the specified model and for transformed parameters which are often obtained post-estimation. Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that PL CIs perform consistently better than Wald-type CIs for both non-transformed and transformed parameters.

  2. Generalized empirical likelihood methods for analyzing longitudinal data

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, S.

    2010-02-16

    Efficient estimation of parameters is a major objective in analyzing longitudinal data. We propose two generalized empirical likelihood based methods that take into consideration within-subject correlations. A nonparametric version of the Wilks theorem for the limiting distributions of the empirical likelihood ratios is derived. It is shown that one of the proposed methods is locally efficient among a class of within-subject variance-covariance matrices. A simulation study is conducted to investigate the finite sample properties of the proposed methods and compare them with the block empirical likelihood method by You et al. (2006) and the normal approximation with a correctly estimated variance-covariance. The results suggest that the proposed methods are generally more efficient than existing methods which ignore the correlation structure, and better in coverage compared to the normal approximation with correctly specified within-subject correlation. An application illustrating our methods and supporting the simulation study results is also presented.

  3. Indian women with higher serum concentrations of folate and vitamin B12 are significantly less likely to be infected with carcinogenic or high-risk (HR types of human papillomaviruses (HPVs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chandrika J Piyathilake

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Chandrika J Piyathilake1, Suguna Badiga1, Proma Paul2, Vijayaraghavan K3, Haripriya Vedantham3, Mrudula Sudula3, Pavani Sowjanya3, Gayatri Ramakrishna4, Keerti V Shah5, Edward E Partridge6, Patti E Gravitt21Department of Nutrition Sciences, The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB, Birmingham, AL, USA; 2Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA; 3SHARE INDIA, Mediciti Institute of Medical Sciences, Ghanpur, India; 4Center for DNA Fingerprinting and Diagnostics, Hyderabad, India; 5Department of Molecular biology and Immunology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD USA; 6UAB Comprehensive Cancer Center, The University of Alabama Birmingham (UAB, Birmingham, AL, USABackground: Studies conducted in the USA have demonstrated that micronutrients such as folate and vitamin B12 play a significant role in modifying the natural history of high-risk human papillomaviruses (HR-HPVs, the causative agent for developing invasive cervical cancer (CC and its precursor lesions.Objective: The purpose of the current study was to investigate whether these micronutrients have similar effects on HR-HPV infections in Indian women.Methods: The associations between serum concentrations of folate and vitamin B12 and HR-HPV infections were evaluated in 724 women who participated in a CC screening study in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, India. Serum folate and vitamin B12 concentrations were measured by using a competitive radio-binding assay. Digene hybrid capture 2 (HC2 assay results were used to categorize women into two groups, positive or negative for HR-HPVs. Unconditional logistic regression models specified a binary indicator of HC2 (positive/negative as the dependent variable and serum folate concentrations combined with serum vitamin B12 concentrations as the independent predictor of primary interest. Models were fitted, adjusting for age, education, marital status, parity

  4. Likelihood ratio sequential sampling models of recognition memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osth, Adam F; Dennis, Simon; Heathcote, Andrew

    2017-02-01

    The mirror effect - a phenomenon whereby a manipulation produces opposite effects on hit and false alarm rates - is benchmark regularity of recognition memory. A likelihood ratio decision process, basing recognition on the relative likelihood that a stimulus is a target or a lure, naturally predicts the mirror effect, and so has been widely adopted in quantitative models of recognition memory. Glanzer, Hilford, and Maloney (2009) demonstrated that likelihood ratio models, assuming Gaussian memory strength, are also capable of explaining regularities observed in receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs), such as greater target than lure variance. Despite its central place in theorising about recognition memory, however, this class of models has not been tested using response time (RT) distributions. In this article, we develop a linear approximation to the likelihood ratio transformation, which we show predicts the same regularities as the exact transformation. This development enabled us to develop a tractable model of recognition-memory RT based on the diffusion decision model (DDM), with inputs (drift rates) provided by an approximate likelihood ratio transformation. We compared this "LR-DDM" to a standard DDM where all targets and lures receive their own drift rate parameters. Both were implemented as hierarchical Bayesian models and applied to four datasets. Model selection taking into account parsimony favored the LR-DDM, which requires fewer parameters than the standard DDM but still fits the data well. These results support log-likelihood based models as providing an elegant explanation of the regularities of recognition memory, not only in terms of choices made but also in terms of the times it takes to make them. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Supervisor Autonomy and Considerate Leadership Style are Associated with Supervisors' Likelihood to Accommodate Back Injured Workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Connor; Kristman, Vicki L; Shaw, William; Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Reguly, Paula; Soklaridis, Sophie

    2015-09-01

    To determine the association between supervisors' leadership style and autonomy and supervisors' likelihood of supporting job accommodations for back-injured workers. A cross-sectional study of supervisors from Canadian and US employers was conducted using a web-based, self-report questionnaire that included a case vignette of a back-injured worker. Autonomy and two dimensions of leadership style (considerate and initiating structure) were included as exposures. The outcome, supervisors' likeliness to support job accommodation, was measured with the Job Accommodation Scale (JAS). We conducted univariate analyses of all variables and bivariate analyses of the JAS score with each exposure and potential confounding factor. We used multivariable generalized linear models to control for confounding factors. A total of 796 supervisors participated. Considerate leadership style (β = .012; 95% CI .009-.016) and autonomy (β = .066; 95% CI .025-.11) were positively associated with supervisors' likelihood to accommodate after adjusting for appropriate confounding factors. An initiating structure leadership style was not significantly associated with supervisors' likelihood to accommodate (β = .0018; 95% CI -.0026 to .0061) after adjusting for appropriate confounders. Autonomy and a considerate leadership style were positively associated with supervisors' likelihood to accommodate a back-injured worker. Providing supervisors with more autonomy over decisions of accommodation and developing their considerate leadership style may aid in increasing work accommodation for back-injured workers and preventing prolonged work disability.

  6. Supervisor Autonomy and Considerate Leadership Style are Associated with Supervisors’ Likelihood to Accommodate Back Injured Workers

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, Connor; Kristman, Vicki L; Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Reguly, Paula; Shaw, William; Soklaridis, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE To determine the association between supervisors’ leadership style and autonomy and supervisors’ likelihood of supporting job accommodations for back-injured workers. METHODS A cross-sectional study of supervisors from Canadian and US employers was conducted using a web-based, self-report questionnaire that included a case vignette of a back-injured worker. Autonomy and two dimensions of leadership style (considerate and initiating structure) were included as exposures. The outcome, supervisors’ likeliness to support job accommodation, was measured with the Job Accommodation Scale. We conducted univariate analyses of all variables and bivariate analyses of the JAS score with each exposure and potential confounding factor. We used multivariable generalized linear models to control for confounding factors. RESULTS A total of 796 supervisors participated. Considerate leadership style (β= .012; 95% CI: .009–.016) and autonomy (β= .066; 95% CI: .025–.11) were positively associated with supervisors’ likelihood to accommodate after adjusting for appropriate confounding factors. An initiating structure leadership style was not significantly associated with supervisors’ likelihood to accommodate (β = .0018; 95% CI: −.0026–.0061) after adjusting for appropriate confounders. CONCLUSIONS Autonomy and a considerate leadership style were positively associated with supervisors’ likelihood to accommodate a back-injured worker. Providing supervisors with more autonomy over decisions of accommodation and developing their considerate leadership style may aid in increasing work accommodation for back-injured workers and preventing prolonged work disability. PMID:25595332

  7. A Game Theoretical Approach to Hacktivism: Is Attack Likelihood a Product of Risks and Payoffs?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodford, Jessica E; Kwan, Virginia S Y

    2018-02-01

    The current study examines hacktivism (i.e., hacking to convey a moral, ethical, or social justice message) through a general game theoretic framework-that is, as a product of costs and benefits. Given the inherent risk of carrying out a hacktivist attack (e.g., legal action, imprisonment), it would be rational for the user to weigh these risks against perceived benefits of carrying out the attack. As such, we examined computer science students' estimations of risks, payoffs, and attack likelihood through a game theoretic design. Furthermore, this study aims at constructing a descriptive profile of potential hacktivists, exploring two predicted covariates of attack decision making, namely, peer prevalence of hacking and sex differences. Contrary to expectations, results suggest that participants' estimations of attack likelihood stemmed solely from expected payoffs, rather than subjective risks. Peer prevalence significantly predicted increased payoffs and attack likelihood, suggesting an underlying descriptive norm in social networks. Notably, we observed no sex differences in the decision to attack, nor in the factors predicting attack likelihood. Implications for policymakers and the understanding and prevention of hacktivism are discussed, as are the possible ramifications of widely communicated payoffs over potential risks in hacking communities.

  8. Unbinned likelihood maximisation framework for neutrino clustering in Python

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coenders, Stefan [Technische Universitaet Muenchen, Boltzmannstr. 2, 85748 Garching (Germany)

    2016-07-01

    Albeit having detected an astrophysical neutrino flux with IceCube, sources of astrophysical neutrinos remain hidden up to now. A detection of a neutrino point source is a smoking gun for hadronic processes and acceleration of cosmic rays. The search for neutrino sources has many degrees of freedom, for example steady versus transient, point-like versus extended sources, et cetera. Here, we introduce a Python framework designed for unbinned likelihood maximisations as used in searches for neutrino point sources by IceCube. Implementing source scenarios in a modular way, likelihood searches on various kinds can be implemented in a user-friendly way, without sacrificing speed and memory management.

  9. Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests of the Unit Root Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansson, Michael; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    Seemingly absent from the arsenal of currently available "nearly efficient" testing procedures for the unit root hypothesis, i.e. tests whose local asymptotic power functions are indistinguishable from the Gaussian power envelope, is a test admitting a (quasi-)likelihood ratio interpretation. We...... show that the likelihood ratio unit root test derived in a Gaussian AR(1) model with standard normal innovations is nearly efficient in that model. Moreover, these desirable properties carry over to more complicated models allowing for serially correlated and/or non-Gaussian innovations....

  10. A note on estimating errors from the likelihood function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barlow, Roger

    2005-01-01

    The points at which the log likelihood falls by 12 from its maximum value are often used to give the 'errors' on a result, i.e. the 68% central confidence interval. The validity of this is examined for two simple cases: a lifetime measurement and a Poisson measurement. Results are compared with the exact Neyman construction and with the simple Bartlett approximation. It is shown that the accuracy of the log likelihood method is poor, and the Bartlett construction explains why it is flawed

  11. Nearly Efficient Likelihood Ratio Tests for Seasonal Unit Roots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jansson, Michael; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    In an important generalization of zero frequency autore- gressive unit root tests, Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (1990) developed regression-based tests for unit roots at the seasonal frequencies in quarterly time series. We develop likelihood ratio tests for seasonal unit roots and show...... that these tests are "nearly efficient" in the sense of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), i.e. that their local asymptotic power functions are indistinguishable from the Gaussian power envelope. Currently available nearly efficient testing procedures for seasonal unit roots are regression-based and require...... the choice of a GLS detrending parameter, which our likelihood ratio tests do not....

  12. LDR: A Package for Likelihood-Based Sufficient Dimension Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Dennis Cook

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available We introduce a new mlab software package that implements several recently proposed likelihood-based methods for sufficient dimension reduction. Current capabilities include estimation of reduced subspaces with a fixed dimension d, as well as estimation of d by use of likelihood-ratio testing, permutation testing and information criteria. The methods are suitable for preprocessing data for both regression and classification. Implementations of related estimators are also available. Although the software is more oriented to command-line operation, a graphical user interface is also provided for prototype computations.

  13. Likelihood ratio decisions in memory: three implied regularities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glanzer, Murray; Hilford, Andrew; Maloney, Laurence T

    2009-06-01

    We analyze four general signal detection models for recognition memory that differ in their distributional assumptions. Our analyses show that a basic assumption of signal detection theory, the likelihood ratio decision axis, implies three regularities in recognition memory: (1) the mirror effect, (2) the variance effect, and (3) the z-ROC length effect. For each model, we present the equations that produce the three regularities and show, in computed examples, how they do so. We then show that the regularities appear in data from a range of recognition studies. The analyses and data in our study support the following generalization: Individuals make efficient recognition decisions on the basis of likelihood ratios.

  14. Smoking increases the likelihood of Helicobacter pylori treatment failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Itskoviz, David; Boltin, Doron; Leibovitzh, Haim; Tsadok Perets, Tsachi; Comaneshter, Doron; Cohen, Arnon; Niv, Yaron; Levi, Zohar

    2017-07-01

    Data regarding the impact of smoking on the success of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) eradication are conflicting, partially due to the fact that sociodemographic status is associated with both smoking and H. pylori treatment success. We aimed to assess the effect of smoking on H. pylori eradication rates after controlling for sociodemographic confounders. Included were subjects aged 15 years or older, with a first time positive C 13 -urea breath test (C 13 -UBT) between 2007 to 2014, who underwent a second C 13 -UBT after receiving clarithromycin-based triple therapy. Data regarding age, gender, socioeconomic status (SES), smoking (current smokers or "never smoked"), and drug use were extracted from the Clalit health maintenance organization database. Out of 120,914 subjects with a positive first time C 13 -UBT, 50,836 (42.0%) underwent a second C 13 -UBT test. After excluding former smokers, 48,130 remained who were eligible for analysis. The mean age was 44.3±18.2years, 69.2% were females, 87.8% were Jewish and 12.2% Arabs, 25.5% were current smokers. The overall eradication failure rates were 33.3%: 34.8% in current smokers and 32.8% in subjects who never smoked. In a multivariate analysis, eradication failure was positively associated with current smoking (Odds Ratio {OR} 1.15, 95% CI 1.10-1.20, psmoking was found to significantly increase the likelihood of unsuccessful first-line treatment for H. pylori infection. Copyright © 2017 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Self-stigma of seeking treatment and being male predict an increased likelihood of having an undiagnosed eating disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Scott; Mond, Jonathan M; Li, Zhicheng; Gunatilake, Sanduni; Murray, Stuart B; Sheffield, Jeanie; Touyz, Stephen

    2015-09-01

    To examine whether self-stigma of seeking psychological help and being male would be associated with an increased likelihood of having an undiagnosed eating disorder. A multi-national sample of 360 individuals with diagnosed eating disorders and 125 individuals with undiagnosed eating disorders were recruited. Logistic regression was used to identify variables affecting the likelihood of having an undiagnosed eating disorder, including sex, self-stigma of seeking psychological help, and perceived stigma of having a mental illness, controlling for a broad range of covariates. Being male and reporting greater self-stigma of seeking psychological help was independently associated with an increased likelihood of being undiagnosed. Further, the association between self-stigma of seeking psychological help and increased likelihood of being undiagnosed was significantly stronger for males than for females. Perceived stigma associated with help-seeking may be a salient barrier to treatment for eating disorders-particularly among male sufferers. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. COSMIC MICROWAVE BACKGROUND LIKELIHOOD APPROXIMATION BY A GAUSSIANIZED BLACKWELL-RAO ESTIMATOR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudjord, Oe.; Groeneboom, N. E.; Eriksen, H. K.; Huey, Greg; Gorski, K. M.; Jewell, J. B.

    2009-01-01

    We introduce a new cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature likelihood approximation called the Gaussianized Blackwell-Rao estimator. This estimator is derived by transforming the observed marginal power spectrum distributions obtained by the CMB Gibbs sampler into standard univariate Gaussians, and then approximating their joint transformed distribution by a multivariate Gaussian. The method is exact for full-sky coverage and uniform noise and an excellent approximation for sky cuts and scanning patterns relevant for modern satellite experiments such as the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) and Planck. The result is a stable, accurate, and computationally very efficient CMB temperature likelihood representation that allows the user to exploit the unique error propagation capabilities of the Gibbs sampler to high ls. A single evaluation of this estimator between l = 2 and 200 takes ∼0.2 CPU milliseconds, while for comparison, a singe pixel space likelihood evaluation between l = 2 and 30 for a map with ∼2500 pixels requires ∼20 s. We apply this tool to the five-year WMAP temperature data, and re-estimate the angular temperature power spectrum, C l , and likelihood, L(C l ), for l ≤ 200, and derive new cosmological parameters for the standard six-parameter ΛCDM model. Our spectrum is in excellent agreement with the official WMAP spectrum, but we find slight differences in the derived cosmological parameters. Most importantly, the spectral index of scalar perturbations is n s = 0.973 ± 0.014, 1.9σ away from unity and 0.6σ higher than the official WMAP result, n s = 0.965 ± 0.014. This suggests that an exact likelihood treatment is required to higher ls than previously believed, reinforcing and extending our conclusions from the three-year WMAP analysis. In that case, we found that the suboptimal likelihood approximation adopted between l = 12 and 30 by the WMAP team biased n s low by 0.4σ, while here we find that the same approximation

  17. Multimodal Personal Verification Using Likelihood Ratio for the Match Score Fusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Long Binh Tran

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the authors present a novel personal verification system based on the likelihood ratio test for fusion of match scores from multiple biometric matchers (face, fingerprint, hand shape, and palm print. In the proposed system, multimodal features are extracted by Zernike Moment (ZM. After matching, the match scores from multiple biometric matchers are fused based on the likelihood ratio test. A finite Gaussian mixture model (GMM is used for estimating the genuine and impostor densities of match scores for personal verification. Our approach is also compared to some different famous approaches such as the support vector machine and the sum rule with min-max. The experimental results have confirmed that the proposed system can achieve excellent identification performance for its higher level in accuracy than different famous approaches and thus can be utilized for more application related to person verification.

  18. Planck 2015 results. XI. CMB power spectra, likelihoods, and robustness of parameters

    CERN Document Server

    Aghanim, N.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Clements, D.L.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Desert, F.X.; Di Valentino, E.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dolag, K.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Gauthier, C.; Gerbino, M.; Giard, M.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hamann, J.; Hansen, F.K.; Harrison, D.L.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Lewis, A.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Lilley, M.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lindholm, V.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Millea, M.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Narimani, A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Pratt, G.W.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; d'Orfeuil, B.Rouille; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Salvati, L.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Serra, P.; Spencer, L.D.; Spinelli, M.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Trombetti, T.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents the Planck 2015 likelihoods, statistical descriptions of the 2-point correlation functions of CMB temperature and polarization. They use the hybrid approach employed previously: pixel-based at low multipoles, $\\ell$, and a Gaussian approximation to the distribution of cross-power spectra at higher $\\ell$. The main improvements are the use of more and better processed data and of Planck polarization data, and more detailed foreground and instrumental models. More than doubling the data allows further checks and enhanced immunity to systematics. Progress in foreground modelling enables a larger sky fraction, contributing to enhanced precision. Improvements in processing and instrumental models further reduce uncertainties. Extensive tests establish robustness and accuracy, from temperature, from polarization, and from their combination, and show that the {\\Lambda}CDM model continues to offer a very good fit. We further validate the likelihood against specific extensions to this baseline, suc...

  19. Predicting likelihood of seeking help through the employee assistance program among salaried and union hourly employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delaney, W; Grube, J W; Ames, G M

    1998-03-01

    This research investigated belief, social support and background predictors of employee likelihood to use an Employee Assistance Program (EAP) for a drinking problem. An anonymous cross-sectional survey was administered in the home. Bivariate analyses and simultaneous equations path analysis were used to explore a model of EAP use. Survey and ethnographic research were conducted in a unionized heavy machinery manufacturing plant in the central states of the United States. A random sample of 852 hourly and salaried employees was selected. In addition to background variables, measures included: likelihood of going to an EAP for a drinking problem, belief the EAP can help, social support for the EAP from co-workers/others, belief that EAP use will harm employment, and supervisor encourages the EAP for potential drinking problems. Belief in EAP efficacy directly increased the likelihood of going to an EAP. Greater perceived social support and supervisor encouragement increased the likelihood of going to an EAP both directly and indirectly through perceived EAP efficacy. Black and union hourly employees were more likely to say they would use an EAP. Males and those who reported drinking during working hours were less likely to say they would use an EAP for a drinking problem. EAP beliefs and social support have significant effects on likelihood to go to an EAP for a drinking problem. EAPs may wish to focus their efforts on creating an environment where there is social support from coworkers and encouragement from supervisors for using EAP services. Union networks and team members have an important role to play in addition to conventional supervisor intervention.

  20. Powdered alcohol: Awareness and likelihood of use among a sample of college students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vail-Smith, Karen; Chaney, Beth H; Martin, Ryan J; Don Chaney, J

    2016-01-01

    In March 2015, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau approved the sale of Palcohol, the first powdered alcohol product to be marketed and sold in the U.S. Powdered alcohol is freeze-dried, and one individual-serving size packet added to 6 ounces of liquid is equivalent to a standard drink. This study assessed awareness of powered alcohol and likelihood to use and/or misuse powdered alcohol among college students. Surveys were administered to a convenience sample of 1,841 undergraduate students. Only 16.4% of respondents had heard of powdered alcohol. After being provided a brief description of powdered alcohol, 23% indicated that they would use the product if available, and of those, 62.1% also indicated likelihood of misusing the product (eg, snorting it, mixing it with alcohol). Caucasian students (OR = 1.5) and hazardous drinkers (based on AUDIT-C scores; OR = 4.7) were significantly more likely to indicate likelihood of use. Hazardous drinkers were also six times more likely to indicate likelihood to misuse the product. These findings can inform upstream prevention efforts in states debating bans on powdered alcohol. In states where powdered alcohol will soon be available, alcohol education initiatives should be updated to include information on the potential risks of use and be targeted to those populations most likely to misuse. This is the first peer-reviewed study to assess the awareness of and likelihood to use and/or misuse powdered alcohol, a potentially emerging form of alcohol. © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  1. Understanding the properties of diagnostic tests - Part 2: Likelihood ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Priya; Aggarwal, Rakesh

    2018-01-01

    Diagnostic tests are used to identify subjects with and without disease. In a previous article in this series, we examined some attributes of diagnostic tests - sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values. In this second article, we look at likelihood ratios, which are useful for the interpretation of diagnostic test results in everyday clinical practice.

  2. Comparison of likelihood testing procedures for parallel systems with covariances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayman Baklizi; Isa Daud; Noor Akma Ibrahim

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we considered investigating and comparing the behavior of the likelihood ratio, the Rao's and the Wald's statistics for testing hypotheses on the parameters of the simple linear regression model based on parallel systems with covariances. These statistics are asymptotically equivalent (Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox, 1994). However, their relative performances in finite samples are generally known. A Monte Carlo experiment is conducted to stimulate the sizes and the powers of these statistics for complete samples and in the presence of time censoring. Comparisons of the statistics are made according to the attainment of assumed size of the test and their powers at various points in the parameter space. The results show that the likelihood ratio statistics appears to have the best performance in terms of the attainment of the assumed size of the test. Power comparisons show that the Rao statistic has some advantage over the Wald statistic in almost all of the space of alternatives while likelihood ratio statistic occupies either the first or the last position in term of power. Overall, the likelihood ratio statistic appears to be more appropriate to the model under study, especially for small sample sizes

  3. Maximum likelihood estimation of the attenuated ultrasound pulse

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Klaus Bolding

    1994-01-01

    The attenuated ultrasound pulse is divided into two parts: a stationary basic pulse and a nonstationary attenuation pulse. A standard ARMA model is used for the basic pulse, and a nonstandard ARMA model is derived for the attenuation pulse. The maximum likelihood estimator of the attenuated...

  4. Planck 2013 results. XV. CMB power spectra and likelihood

    CERN Document Server

    Ade, P.A.R.; Armitage-Caplan, C.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Atrio-Barandela, F.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoit, A.; Benoit-Levy, A.; Bernard, J.P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bobin, J.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bridges, M.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chiang, L.Y.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Church, S.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Delouis, J.M.; Desert, F.X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Dore, O.; Douspis, M.; Dunkley, J.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Ensslin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Gaier, T.C.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Giard, M.; Giardino, G.; Giraud-Heraud, Y.; Gjerlow, E.; Gonzalez-Nuevo, J.; Gorski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versille, S.; Hernandez-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jewell, J.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihanen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kiiveri, K.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Knox, L.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lahteenmaki, A.; Lamarre, J.M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Laureijs, R.J.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leach, S.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Leon-Tavares, J.; Lesgourgues, J.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Lindholm, V.; Linden-Vornle, M.; Lopez-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macias-Perez, J.F.; Maffei, B.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Marinucci, D.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martinez-Gonzalez, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Matthai, F.; Mazzotta, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Menegoni, E.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Millea, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschenes, M.A.; Molinari, D.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Norgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; O'Dwyer, I.J.; Orieux, F.; Osborne, S.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Paykari, P.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Ponthieu, N.; Popa, L.; Poutanen, T.; Pratt, G.W.; Prezeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.L.; Rachen, J.P.; Rahlin, A.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Ricciardi, S.; Riller, T.; Ringeval, C.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Roudier, G.; Rowan-Robinson, M.; Rubino-Martin, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Sanselme, L.; Santos, D.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Starck, J.L.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Sudiwala, R.; Sureau, F.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.S.; Sygnet, J.F.; Tauber, J.A.; Tavagnacco, D.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Turler, M.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Varis, J.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Vittorio, N.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; White, M.; White, S.D.M.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.; Zonca, A.

    2014-01-01

    We present the Planck likelihood, a complete statistical description of the two-point correlation function of the CMB temperature fluctuations. We use this likelihood to derive the Planck CMB power spectrum over three decades in l, covering 2 = 50, we employ a correlated Gaussian likelihood approximation based on angular cross-spectra derived from the 100, 143 and 217 GHz channels. We validate our likelihood through an extensive suite of consistency tests, and assess the impact of residual foreground and instrumental uncertainties on cosmological parameters. We find good internal agreement among the high-l cross-spectra with residuals of a few uK^2 at l <= 1000. We compare our results with foreground-cleaned CMB maps, and with cross-spectra derived from the 70 GHz Planck map, and find broad agreement in terms of spectrum residuals and cosmological parameters. The best-fit LCDM cosmology is in excellent agreement with preliminary Planck polarisation spectra. The standard LCDM cosmology is well constrained b...

  5. Robust Gaussian Process Regression with a Student-t Likelihood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jylänki, P.P.; Vanhatalo, J.; Vehtari, A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper considers the robust and efficient implementation of Gaussian process regression with a Student-t observation model, which has a non-log-concave likelihood. The challenge with the Student-t model is the analytically intractable inference which is why several approximative methods have

  6. MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD-ESTIMATION OF THE ENTROPY OF AN ATTRACTOR

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    SCHOUTEN, JC; TAKENS, F; VANDENBLEEK, CM

    In this paper, a maximum-likelihood estimate of the (Kolmogorov) entropy of an attractor is proposed that can be obtained directly from a time series. Also, the relative standard deviation of the entropy estimate is derived; it is dependent on the entropy and on the number of samples used in the

  7. A simplification of the likelihood ratio test statistic for testing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The traditional likelihood ratio test statistic for testing hypothesis about goodness of fit of multinomial probabilities in one, two and multi – dimensional contingency table was simplified. Advantageously, using the simplified version of the statistic to test the null hypothesis is easier and faster because calculating the expected ...

  8. Adaptive Unscented Kalman Filter using Maximum Likelihood Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahmoudi, Zeinab; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad; Madsen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop an adaptive unscented Kalman filter (UKF) by tuning the measurement noise covariance. We use the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and the covariance matching (CM) method to estimate the noise covariance. The multi-step prediction errors generated...

  9. LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS USING SIMULTANEOUSLY MONITORED PROCESSES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2004-01-01

    The topic is maximum likelihood inference from several simultaneously monitored response processes of a structure to obtain knowledge about the parameters of other not monitored but important response processes when the structure is subject to some Gaussian load field in space and time. The consi....... The considered example is a ship sailing with a given speed through a Gaussian wave field....

  10. Likelihood-based inference for clustered line transect data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus; Schweder, Tore

    2006-01-01

    The uncertainty in estimation of spatial animal density from line transect surveys depends on the degree of spatial clustering in the animal population. To quantify the clustering we model line transect data as independent thinnings of spatial shot-noise Cox processes. Likelihood-based inference...

  11. Likelihood-based Dynamic Factor Analysis for Measurement and Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jungbacker, B.M.J.P.; Koopman, S.J.

    2015-01-01

    We present new results for the likelihood-based analysis of the dynamic factor model. The latent factors are modelled by linear dynamic stochastic processes. The idiosyncratic disturbance series are specified as autoregressive processes with mutually correlated innovations. The new results lead to

  12. Likelihood-based inference for clustered line transect data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagepetersen, Rasmus Plenge; Schweder, Tore

    The uncertainty in estimation of spatial animal density from line transect surveys depends on the degree of spatial clustering in the animal population. To quantify the clustering we model line transect data as independent thinnings of spatial shot-noise Cox processes. Likelihood-based inference...

  13. Composite likelihood and two-stage estimation in family studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Elisabeth Anne Wreford

    2004-01-01

    In this paper register based family studies provide the motivation for linking a two-stage estimation procedure in copula models for multivariate failure time data with a composite likelihood approach. The asymptotic properties of the estimators in both parametric and semi-parametric models are d...

  14. Reconceptualizing Social Influence in Counseling: The Elaboration Likelihood Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeill, Brian W.; Stoltenberg, Cal D.

    1989-01-01

    Presents Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion (a reconceptualization of the social influence process) as alternative model of attitude change. Contends ELM unifies conflicting social psychology results and can potentially account for inconsistent research findings in counseling psychology. Provides guidelines on integrating…

  15. Counseling Pretreatment and the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Attitude Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heesacker, Martin

    1986-01-01

    Results of the application of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) to a counseling context revealed that more favorable attitudes toward counseling occurred as subjects' ego involvement increased and as intervention quality improved. Counselor credibility affected the degree to which subjects' attitudes reflected argument quality differences.…

  16. Cases in which ancestral maximum likelihood will be confusingly misleading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handelman, Tomer; Chor, Benny

    2017-05-07

    Ancestral maximum likelihood (AML) is a phylogenetic tree reconstruction criteria that "lies between" maximum parsimony (MP) and maximum likelihood (ML). ML has long been known to be statistically consistent. On the other hand, Felsenstein (1978) showed that MP is statistically inconsistent, and even positively misleading: There are cases where the parsimony criteria, applied to data generated according to one tree topology, will be optimized on a different tree topology. The question of weather AML is statistically consistent or not has been open for a long time. Mossel et al. (2009) have shown that AML can "shrink" short tree edges, resulting in a star tree with no internal resolution, which yields a better AML score than the original (resolved) model. This result implies that AML is statistically inconsistent, but not that it is positively misleading, because the star tree is compatible with any other topology. We show that AML is confusingly misleading: For some simple, four taxa (resolved) tree, the ancestral likelihood optimization criteria is maximized on an incorrect (resolved) tree topology, as well as on a star tree (both with specific edge lengths), while the tree with the original, correct topology, has strictly lower ancestral likelihood. Interestingly, the two short edges in the incorrect, resolved tree topology are of length zero, and are not adjacent, so this resolved tree is in fact a simple path. While for MP, the underlying phenomenon can be described as long edge attraction, it turns out that here we have long edge repulsion. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  17. Multilevel maximum likelihood estimation with application to covariance matrices

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Turčičová, Marie; Mandel, J.; Eben, Kryštof

    Published online: 23 January ( 2018 ) ISSN 0361-0926 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-34856S Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : Fisher information * High dimension * Hierarchical maximum likelihood * Nested parameter spaces * Spectral diagonal covariance model * Sparse inverse covariance model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.311, year: 2016

  18. Pendeteksian Outlier pada Regresi Nonlinier dengan Metode statistik Likelihood Displacement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siti Tabi'atul Hasanah

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Outlier is an observation that much different (extreme from the other observational data, or data can be interpreted that do not follow the general pattern of the model. Sometimes outliers provide information that can not be provided by other data. That's why outliers should not just be eliminated. Outliers can also be an influential observation. There are many methods that can be used to detect of outliers. In previous studies done on outlier detection of linear regression. Next will be developed detection of outliers in nonlinear regression. Nonlinear regression here is devoted to multiplicative nonlinear regression. To detect is use of statistical method likelihood displacement. Statistical methods abbreviated likelihood displacement (LD is a method to detect outliers by removing the suspected outlier data. To estimate the parameters are used to the maximum likelihood method, so we get the estimate of the maximum. By using LD method is obtained i.e likelihood displacement is thought to contain outliers. Further accuracy of LD method in detecting the outliers are shown by comparing the MSE of LD with the MSE from the regression in general. Statistic test used is Λ. Initial hypothesis was rejected when proved so is an outlier.

  19. Gaussian copula as a likelihood function for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wani, O.; Espadas, G.; Cecinati, F.; Rieckermann, J.

    2017-12-01

    Parameter estimation of environmental models always comes with uncertainty. To formally quantify this parametric uncertainty, a likelihood function needs to be formulated, which is defined as the probability of observations given fixed values of the parameter set. A likelihood function allows us to infer parameter values from observations using Bayes' theorem. The challenge is to formulate a likelihood function that reliably describes the error generating processes which lead to the observed monitoring data, such as rainfall and runoff. If the likelihood function is not representative of the error statistics, the parameter inference will give biased parameter values. Several uncertainty estimation methods that are currently being used employ Gaussian processes as a likelihood function, because of their favourable analytical properties. Box-Cox transformation is suggested to deal with non-symmetric and heteroscedastic errors e.g. for flow data which are typically more uncertain in high flows than in periods with low flows. Problem with transformations is that the results are conditional on hyper-parameters, for which it is difficult to formulate the analyst's belief a priori. In an attempt to address this problem, in this research work we suggest learning the nature of the error distribution from the errors made by the model in the "past" forecasts. We use a Gaussian copula to generate semiparametric error distributions . 1) We show that this copula can be then used as a likelihood function to infer parameters, breaking away from the practice of using multivariate normal distributions. Based on the results from a didactical example of predicting rainfall runoff, 2) we demonstrate that the copula captures the predictive uncertainty of the model. 3) Finally, we find that the properties of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity of errors are captured well by the copula, eliminating the need to use transforms. In summary, our findings suggest that copulas are an

  20. Modeling gene expression measurement error: a quasi-likelihood approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Strimmer Korbinian

    2003-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Using suitable error models for gene expression measurements is essential in the statistical analysis of microarray data. However, the true probabilistic model underlying gene expression intensity readings is generally not known. Instead, in currently used approaches some simple parametric model is assumed (usually a transformed normal distribution or the empirical distribution is estimated. However, both these strategies may not be optimal for gene expression data, as the non-parametric approach ignores known structural information whereas the fully parametric models run the risk of misspecification. A further related problem is the choice of a suitable scale for the model (e.g. observed vs. log-scale. Results Here a simple semi-parametric model for gene expression measurement error is presented. In this approach inference is based an approximate likelihood function (the extended quasi-likelihood. Only partial knowledge about the unknown true distribution is required to construct this function. In case of gene expression this information is available in the form of the postulated (e.g. quadratic variance structure of the data. As the quasi-likelihood behaves (almost like a proper likelihood, it allows for the estimation of calibration and variance parameters, and it is also straightforward to obtain corresponding approximate confidence intervals. Unlike most other frameworks, it also allows analysis on any preferred scale, i.e. both on the original linear scale as well as on a transformed scale. It can also be employed in regression approaches to model systematic (e.g. array or dye effects. Conclusions The quasi-likelihood framework provides a simple and versatile approach to analyze gene expression data that does not make any strong distributional assumptions about the underlying error model. For several simulated as well as real data sets it provides a better fit to the data than competing models. In an example it also

  1. Exclusion probabilities and likelihood ratios with applications to mixtures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slooten, Klaas-Jan; Egeland, Thore

    2016-01-01

    The statistical evidence obtained from mixed DNA profiles can be summarised in several ways in forensic casework including the likelihood ratio (LR) and the Random Man Not Excluded (RMNE) probability. The literature has seen a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of likelihood ratios and exclusion probabilities, and part of our aim is to bring some clarification to this debate. In a previous paper, we proved that there is a general mathematical relationship between these statistics: RMNE can be expressed as a certain average of the LR, implying that the expected value of the LR, when applied to an actual contributor to the mixture, is at least equal to the inverse of the RMNE. While the mentioned paper presented applications for kinship problems, the current paper demonstrates the relevance for mixture cases, and for this purpose, we prove some new general properties. We also demonstrate how to use the distribution of the likelihood ratio for donors of a mixture, to obtain estimates for exceedance probabilities of the LR for non-donors, of which the RMNE is a special case corresponding to L R>0. In order to derive these results, we need to view the likelihood ratio as a random variable. In this paper, we describe how such a randomization can be achieved. The RMNE is usually invoked only for mixtures without dropout. In mixtures, artefacts like dropout and drop-in are commonly encountered and we address this situation too, illustrating our results with a basic but widely implemented model, a so-called binary model. The precise definitions, modelling and interpretation of the required concepts of dropout and drop-in are not entirely obvious, and we attempt to clarify them here in a general likelihood framework for a binary model.

  2. The Role of Mechanical Variance and Spatial Clustering on the Likelihood of Tumor Incidence and Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzakhel, Zibah

    When considering factors that contribute to cancer progression, modifications to both the biological and mechanical pathways play significant roles. However, less attention is placed on how the mechanical pathways can specifically contribute to cancerous behavior. Experimental studies have found that malignant cells are significantly softer than healthy, normal cells. In a tissue environment where healthy or malignant cells exist, a distribution of cell stiffness values is observed, with the mean values used to differentiate between these two populations. Rather than focus on the mean values, emphasis will be placed on the distribution, where instances of soft and stiff cells exist in the healthy tissue environment. Since cell deformability is a trait associated with cancer, the question arises as to whether the mechanical variation observed in healthy tissue cell stiffness distributions can influence any instances of tumor growth. To approach this, a 3D discrete model of cells is used, able to monitor and predict the behavior of individual cells while determining any instances of tumor growth in a healthy tissue. In addition to the mechanical variance, the spatial arrangement of cells will also be modeled, as cell interaction could further implicate any incidences of tumor-like malignant populations within the tissue. Results have shown that the likelihood of tumor incidence is driven by both by the increases in the mechanical variation in the distributions as well as larger clustering of cells that are mechanically similar, quantified primarily through higher proliferation rates of tumor-like soft cells. This can be observed though prominent negative shifts in the mean of the distribution, as it begins to transition and show instances of earlystage tumor growth. The model reveals the impact that both the mechanical variation and spatial arrangement of cells has on tumor progression, suggesting the use of these parameters as potential novel biomarkers. With a

  3. Likelihood to Use Employee Assistance Programs: The Effects of Sociodemographic, Social-Psychological, Sociocultural, Organizational, and Community Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, LaCheata, And Others

    1991-01-01

    Employees (n=62) from large telephone communications company completed questionnaires assessing relationship between likelihood to use Employee Assistance Program (EAP) services and five domains: sociodemographic, social-psychological, sociocultural, organizational, and community. Found that women and individuals in higher income and educational…

  4. Determination of point of maximum likelihood in failure domain using genetic algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Obadage, A.S.; Harnpornchai, N.

    2006-01-01

    The point of maximum likelihood in a failure domain yields the highest value of the probability density function in the failure domain. The maximum-likelihood point thus represents the worst combination of random variables that contribute in the failure event. In this work Genetic Algorithms (GAs) with an adaptive penalty scheme have been proposed as a tool for the determination of the maximum likelihood point. The utilization of only numerical values in the GAs operation makes the algorithms applicable to cases of non-linear and implicit single and multiple limit state function(s). The algorithmic simplicity readily extends its application to higher dimensional problems. When combined with Monte Carlo Simulation, the proposed methodology will reduce the computational complexity and at the same time will enhance the possibility in rare-event analysis under limited computational resources. Since, there is no approximation done in the procedure, the solution obtained is considered accurate. Consequently, GAs can be used as a tool for increasing the computational efficiency in the element and system reliability analyses

  5. Balance improvement and reduction of likelihood of falls in older women after Cawthorne and Cooksey exercises.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Angela dos Santos Bersot; Pereira, João Santos

    2005-01-01

    Vestibular system is the absolute referential for the maintenance of balance. Functional deficit with aging can result in balance disturbance and in increase of likelihood of falls. To verify whether specific therapeutic approach of the system can promote motor learning and can contribute to the improvement of balance and to decrease of likelihood of falls. Clinical prospective. Fifteen women, aged 60 to 69, mean = 64.8 years old (+/- 2.95), resident in Barra Mansa-RJ, were submitted to Cawthorne and Cooksey exercises during three months, three times a week, during sixty minutes. They were evaluated with Berg Balance Scale (BBS), whose scores determine the possibility of fall (PQ). Comparing the data obtained before and after intervention, we observed significant difference (pelderly people.

  6. A randomized trial to determine the impact on compliance of a psychophysical peripheral cue based on the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Rachael Jane; Minniti, Antoinette; Mireylees, Stewart; McEntegart, Damian

    2008-11-01

    Non-compliance in clinical studies is a significant issue, but causes remain unclear. Utilizing the Elaboration Likelihood Model of persuasion, this study assessed the psychophysical peripheral cue 'Interactive Voice Response System (IVRS) call frequency' on compliance. 71 participants were randomized to once daily (OD), twice daily (BID) or three times daily (TID) call schedules over two weeks. Participants completed 30-item cognitive function tests at each call. Compliance was defined as proportion of expected calls within a narrow window (+/- 30 min around scheduled time), and within a relaxed window (-30 min to +4 h). Data were analyzed by ANOVA and pairwise comparisons adjusted by the Bonferroni correction. There was a relationship between call frequency and compliance. Bonferroni adjusted pairwise comparisons showed significantly higher compliance (p=0.03) for the BID (51.0%) than TID (30.3%) for the narrow window; for the extended window, compliance was higher (p=0.04) with OD (59.5%), than TID (38.4%). The IVRS psychophysical peripheral cue call frequency supported the ELM as a route to persuasion. The results also support OD strategy for optimal compliance. Models suggest specific indicators to enhance compliance with medication dosing and electronic patient diaries to improve health outcomes and data integrity respectively.

  7. A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory. PMID:24223450

  8. A composite likelihood approach for spatially correlated survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paik, Jane; Ying, Zhiliang

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to provide a composite likelihood approach to handle spatially correlated survival data using pairwise joint distributions. With e-commerce data, a recent question of interest in marketing research has been to describe spatially clustered purchasing behavior and to assess whether geographic distance is the appropriate metric to describe purchasing dependence. We present a model for the dependence structure of time-to-event data subject to spatial dependence to characterize purchasing behavior from the motivating example from e-commerce data. We assume the Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) distribution and then model the dependence parameter as a function of geographic and demographic pairwise distances. For estimation of the dependence parameters, we present pairwise composite likelihood equations. We prove that the resulting estimators exhibit key properties of consistency and asymptotic normality under certain regularity conditions in the increasing-domain framework of spatial asymptotic theory.

  9. Secondary Analysis under Cohort Sampling Designs Using Conditional Likelihood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olli Saarela

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Under cohort sampling designs, additional covariate data are collected on cases of a specific type and a randomly selected subset of noncases, primarily for the purpose of studying associations with a time-to-event response of interest. With such data available, an interest may arise to reuse them for studying associations between the additional covariate data and a secondary non-time-to-event response variable, usually collected for the whole study cohort at the outset of the study. Following earlier literature, we refer to such a situation as secondary analysis. We outline a general conditional likelihood approach for secondary analysis under cohort sampling designs and discuss the specific situations of case-cohort and nested case-control designs. We also review alternative methods based on full likelihood and inverse probability weighting. We compare the alternative methods for secondary analysis in two simulated settings and apply them in a real-data example.

  10. GENERALIZATION OF RAYLEIGH MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD DESPECKLING FILTER USING QUADRILATERAL KERNELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sridevi

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Speckle noise is the most prevalent noise in clinical ultrasound images. It visibly looks like light and dark spots and deduce the pixel intensity as murkiest. Gazing at fetal ultrasound images, the impact of edge and local fine details are more palpable for obstetricians and gynecologists to carry out prenatal diagnosis of congenital heart disease. A robust despeckling filter has to be contrived to proficiently suppress speckle noise and simultaneously preserve the features. The proposed filter is the generalization of Rayleigh maximum likelihood filter by the exploitation of statistical tools as tuning parameters and use different shapes of quadrilateral kernels to estimate the noise free pixel from neighborhood. The performance of various filters namely Median, Kuwahura, Frost, Homogenous mask filter and Rayleigh maximum likelihood filter are compared with the proposed filter in terms PSNR and image profile. Comparatively the proposed filters surpass the conventional filters.

  11. Likelihood inference for a nonstationary fractional autoregressive model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Ørregård Nielsen, Morten

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses model-based inference in an autoregressive model for fractional processes which allows the process to be fractional of order d or d-b. Fractional differencing involves infinitely many past values and because we are interested in nonstationary processes we model the data X1......,...,X_{T} given the initial values X_{-n}, n=0,1,..., as is usually done. The initial values are not modeled but assumed to be bounded. This represents a considerable generalization relative to all previous work where it is assumed that initial values are zero. For the statistical analysis we assume...... the conditional Gaussian likelihood and for the probability analysis we also condition on initial values but assume that the errors in the autoregressive model are i.i.d. with suitable moment conditions. We analyze the conditional likelihood and its derivatives as stochastic processes in the parameters, including...

  12. Maximum Likelihood Compton Polarimetry with the Compton Spectrometer and Imager

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lowell, A. W.; Boggs, S. E; Chiu, C. L.; Kierans, C. A.; Sleator, C.; Tomsick, J. A.; Zoglauer, A. C. [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley (United States); Chang, H.-K.; Tseng, C.-H.; Yang, C.-Y. [Institute of Astronomy, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan (China); Jean, P.; Ballmoos, P. von [IRAP Toulouse (France); Lin, C.-H. [Institute of Physics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan (China); Amman, M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (United States)

    2017-10-20

    Astrophysical polarization measurements in the soft gamma-ray band are becoming more feasible as detectors with high position and energy resolution are deployed. Previous work has shown that the minimum detectable polarization (MDP) of an ideal Compton polarimeter can be improved by ∼21% when an unbinned, maximum likelihood method (MLM) is used instead of the standard approach of fitting a sinusoid to a histogram of azimuthal scattering angles. Here we outline a procedure for implementing this maximum likelihood approach for real, nonideal polarimeters. As an example, we use the recent observation of GRB 160530A with the Compton Spectrometer and Imager. We find that the MDP for this observation is reduced by 20% when the MLM is used instead of the standard method.

  13. THESEUS: maximum likelihood superpositioning and analysis of macromolecular structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theobald, Douglas L; Wuttke, Deborah S

    2006-09-01

    THESEUS is a command line program for performing maximum likelihood (ML) superpositions and analysis of macromolecular structures. While conventional superpositioning methods use ordinary least-squares (LS) as the optimization criterion, ML superpositions provide substantially improved accuracy by down-weighting variable structural regions and by correcting for correlations among atoms. ML superpositioning is robust and insensitive to the specific atoms included in the analysis, and thus it does not require subjective pruning of selected variable atomic coordinates. Output includes both likelihood-based and frequentist statistics for accurate evaluation of the adequacy of a superposition and for reliable analysis of structural similarities and differences. THESEUS performs principal components analysis for analyzing the complex correlations found among atoms within a structural ensemble. ANSI C source code and selected binaries for various computing platforms are available under the GNU open source license from http://monkshood.colorado.edu/theseus/ or http://www.theseus3d.org.

  14. Deformation of log-likelihood loss function for multiclass boosting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanamori, Takafumi

    2010-09-01

    The purpose of this paper is to study loss functions in multiclass classification. In classification problems, the decision function is estimated by minimizing an empirical loss function, and then, the output label is predicted by using the estimated decision function. We propose a class of loss functions which is obtained by a deformation of the log-likelihood loss function. There are four main reasons why we focus on the deformed log-likelihood loss function: (1) this is a class of loss functions which has not been deeply investigated so far, (2) in terms of computation, a boosting algorithm with a pseudo-loss is available to minimize the proposed loss function, (3) the proposed loss functions provide a clear correspondence between the decision functions and conditional probabilities of output labels, (4) the proposed loss functions satisfy the statistical consistency of the classification error rate which is a desirable property in classification problems. Based on (3), we show that the deformed log-likelihood loss provides a model of mislabeling which is useful as a statistical model of medical diagnostics. We also propose a robust loss function against outliers in multiclass classification based on our approach. The robust loss function is a natural extension of the existing robust loss function for binary classification. A model of mislabeling and a robust loss function are useful to cope with noisy data. Some numerical studies are presented to show the robustness of the proposed loss function. A mathematical characterization of the deformed log-likelihood loss function is also presented. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Bayesian interpretation of Generalized empirical likelihood by maximum entropy

    OpenAIRE

    Rochet , Paul

    2011-01-01

    We study a parametric estimation problem related to moment condition models. As an alternative to the generalized empirical likelihood (GEL) and the generalized method of moments (GMM), a Bayesian approach to the problem can be adopted, extending the MEM procedure to parametric moment conditions. We show in particular that a large number of GEL estimators can be interpreted as a maximum entropy solution. Moreover, we provide a more general field of applications by proving the method to be rob...

  16. Menyoal Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) dan Teori Retorika

    OpenAIRE

    Yudi Perbawaningsih

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: Persuasion is a communication process to establish or change attitudes, which can be understood through theory of Rhetoric and theory of Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). This study elaborates these theories in a Public Lecture series which to persuade the students in choosing their concentration of study. The result shows that in term of persuasion effectiveness it is not quite relevant to separate the message and its source. The quality of source is determined by the quality of ...

  17. Maximum Likelihood, Consistency and Data Envelopment Analysis: A Statistical Foundation

    OpenAIRE

    Rajiv D. Banker

    1993-01-01

    This paper provides a formal statistical basis for the efficiency evaluation techniques of data envelopment analysis (DEA). DEA estimators of the best practice monotone increasing and concave production function are shown to be also maximum likelihood estimators if the deviation of actual output from the efficient output is regarded as a stochastic variable with a monotone decreasing probability density function. While the best practice frontier estimator is biased below the theoretical front...

  18. Multiple Improvements of Multiple Imputation Likelihood Ratio Tests

    OpenAIRE

    Chan, Kin Wai; Meng, Xiao-Li

    2017-01-01

    Multiple imputation (MI) inference handles missing data by first properly imputing the missing values $m$ times, and then combining the $m$ analysis results from applying a complete-data procedure to each of the completed datasets. However, the existing method for combining likelihood ratio tests has multiple defects: (i) the combined test statistic can be negative in practice when the reference null distribution is a standard $F$ distribution; (ii) it is not invariant to re-parametrization; ...

  19. Maximum likelihood convolutional decoding (MCD) performance due to system losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, L.

    1976-01-01

    A model for predicting the computational performance of a maximum likelihood convolutional decoder (MCD) operating in a noisy carrier reference environment is described. This model is used to develop a subroutine that will be utilized by the Telemetry Analysis Program to compute the MCD bit error rate. When this computational model is averaged over noisy reference phase errors using a high-rate interpolation scheme, the results are found to agree quite favorably with experimental measurements.

  20. Menyoal Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) Dan Teori Retorika

    OpenAIRE

    Perbawaningsih, Yudi

    2012-01-01

    : Persuasion is a communication process to establish or change attitudes, which can be understood through theory of Rhetoric and theory of Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM). This study elaborates these theories in a Public Lecture series which to persuade the students in choosing their concentration of study. The result shows that in term of persuasion effectiveness it is not quite relevant to separate the message and its source. The quality of source is determined by the quality of the mess...

  1. Penggunaan Elaboration Likelihood Model dalam Menganalisis Penerimaan Teknologi Informasi

    OpenAIRE

    vitrian, vitrian2

    2010-01-01

    This article discusses some technology acceptance models in an organization. Thorough analysis of how technology is acceptable help managers make any planning to implement new teachnology and make sure that new technology could enhance organization's performance. Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) is the one which sheds light on some behavioral factors in acceptance of information technology. The basic tenet of ELM states that human behavior in principle can be influenced through central r...

  2. Statistical Bias in Maximum Likelihood Estimators of Item Parameters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-04-01

    34 a> E r’r~e r ,C Ie I# ne,..,.rVi rnd Id.,flfv b1 - bindk numb.r) I; ,t-i i-cd I ’ tiie bias in the maximum likelihood ,st i- i;, ’ t iIeiIrs in...NTC, IL 60088 Psychometric Laboratory University of North Carolina I ERIC Facility-Acquisitions Davie Hall 013A 4833 Rugby Avenue Chapel Hill, NC

  3. Empirical Likelihood in Nonignorable Covariate-Missing Data Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yanmei; Zhang, Biao

    2017-04-20

    Missing covariate data occurs often in regression analysis, which frequently arises in the health and social sciences as well as in survey sampling. We study methods for the analysis of a nonignorable covariate-missing data problem in an assumed conditional mean function when some covariates are completely observed but other covariates are missing for some subjects. We adopt the semiparametric perspective of Bartlett et al. (Improving upon the efficiency of complete case analysis when covariates are MNAR. Biostatistics 2014;15:719-30) on regression analyses with nonignorable missing covariates, in which they have introduced the use of two working models, the working probability model of missingness and the working conditional score model. In this paper, we study an empirical likelihood approach to nonignorable covariate-missing data problems with the objective of effectively utilizing the two working models in the analysis of covariate-missing data. We propose a unified approach to constructing a system of unbiased estimating equations, where there are more equations than unknown parameters of interest. One useful feature of these unbiased estimating equations is that they naturally incorporate the incomplete data into the data analysis, making it possible to seek efficient estimation of the parameter of interest even when the working regression function is not specified to be the optimal regression function. We apply the general methodology of empirical likelihood to optimally combine these unbiased estimating equations. We propose three maximum empirical likelihood estimators of the underlying regression parameters and compare their efficiencies with other existing competitors. We present a simulation study to compare the finite-sample performance of various methods with respect to bias, efficiency, and robustness to model misspecification. The proposed empirical likelihood method is also illustrated by an analysis of a data set from the US National Health and

  4. Democracy, Autocracy and the Likelihood of International Conflict

    OpenAIRE

    Tangerås, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    This is a game-theoretic analysis of the link between regime type and international conflict. The democratic electorate can credibly punish the leader for bad conflict outcomes, whereas the autocratic selectorate cannot. For the fear of being thrown out of office, democratic leaders are (i) more selective about the wars they initiate and (ii) on average win more of the wars they start. Foreign policy behaviour is found to display strategic complementarities. The likelihood of interstate war, ...

  5. Moment Conditions Selection Based on Adaptive Penalized Empirical Likelihood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunquan Song

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Empirical likelihood is a very popular method and has been widely used in the fields of artificial intelligence (AI and data mining as tablets and mobile application and social media dominate the technology landscape. This paper proposes an empirical likelihood shrinkage method to efficiently estimate unknown parameters and select correct moment conditions simultaneously, when the model is defined by moment restrictions in which some are possibly misspecified. We show that our method enjoys oracle-like properties; that is, it consistently selects the correct moment conditions and at the same time its estimator is as efficient as the empirical likelihood estimator obtained by all correct moment conditions. Moreover, unlike the GMM, our proposed method allows us to carry out confidence regions for the parameters included in the model without estimating the covariances of the estimators. For empirical implementation, we provide some data-driven procedures for selecting the tuning parameter of the penalty function. The simulation results show that the method works remarkably well in terms of correct moment selection and the finite sample properties of the estimators. Also, a real-life example is carried out to illustrate the new methodology.

  6. Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for population genetic inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertl, Johanna; Ewing, Gregory; Kosiol, Carolin; Futschik, Andreas

    2017-11-27

    In many population genetic problems, parameter estimation is obstructed by an intractable likelihood function. Therefore, approximate estimation methods have been developed, and with growing computational power, sampling-based methods became popular. However, these methods such as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be inefficient in high-dimensional problems. This led to the development of more sophisticated iterative estimation methods like particle filters. Here, we propose an alternative approach that is based on stochastic approximation. By moving along a simulated gradient or ascent direction, the algorithm produces a sequence of estimates that eventually converges to the maximum likelihood estimate, given a set of observed summary statistics. This strategy does not sample much from low-likelihood regions of the parameter space, and is fast, even when many summary statistics are involved. We put considerable efforts into providing tuning guidelines that improve the robustness and lead to good performance on problems with high-dimensional summary statistics and a low signal-to-noise ratio. We then investigate the performance of our resulting approach and study its properties in simulations. Finally, we re-estimate parameters describing the demographic history of Bornean and Sumatran orang-utans.

  7. Caching and interpolated likelihoods: accelerating cosmological Monte Carlo Markov chains

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bouland, Adam; Easther, Richard; Rosenfeld, Katherine, E-mail: adam.bouland@aya.yale.edu, E-mail: richard.easther@yale.edu, E-mail: krosenfeld@cfa.harvard.edu [Department of Physics, Yale University, New Haven CT 06520 (United States)

    2011-05-01

    We describe a novel approach to accelerating Monte Carlo Markov Chains. Our focus is cosmological parameter estimation, but the algorithm is applicable to any problem for which the likelihood surface is a smooth function of the free parameters and computationally expensive to evaluate. We generate a high-order interpolating polynomial for the log-likelihood using the first points gathered by the Markov chains as a training set. This polynomial then accurately computes the majority of the likelihoods needed in the latter parts of the chains. We implement a simple version of this algorithm as a patch (InterpMC) to CosmoMC and show that it accelerates parameter estimatation by a factor of between two and four for well-converged chains. The current code is primarily intended as a ''proof of concept'', and we argue that there is considerable room for further performance gains. Unlike other approaches to accelerating parameter fits, we make no use of precomputed training sets or special choices of variables, and InterpMC is almost entirely transparent to the user.

  8. Caching and interpolated likelihoods: accelerating cosmological Monte Carlo Markov chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouland, Adam; Easther, Richard; Rosenfeld, Katherine

    2011-01-01

    We describe a novel approach to accelerating Monte Carlo Markov Chains. Our focus is cosmological parameter estimation, but the algorithm is applicable to any problem for which the likelihood surface is a smooth function of the free parameters and computationally expensive to evaluate. We generate a high-order interpolating polynomial for the log-likelihood using the first points gathered by the Markov chains as a training set. This polynomial then accurately computes the majority of the likelihoods needed in the latter parts of the chains. We implement a simple version of this algorithm as a patch (InterpMC) to CosmoMC and show that it accelerates parameter estimatation by a factor of between two and four for well-converged chains. The current code is primarily intended as a ''proof of concept'', and we argue that there is considerable room for further performance gains. Unlike other approaches to accelerating parameter fits, we make no use of precomputed training sets or special choices of variables, and InterpMC is almost entirely transparent to the user

  9. Maximum likelihood as a common computational framework in tomotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olivera, G.H.; Shepard, D.M.; Reckwerdt, P.J.; Ruchala, K.; Zachman, J.; Fitchard, E.E.; Mackie, T.R.

    1998-01-01

    Tomotherapy is a dose delivery technique using helical or axial intensity modulated beams. One of the strengths of the tomotherapy concept is that it can incorporate a number of processes into a single piece of equipment. These processes include treatment optimization planning, dose reconstruction and kilovoltage/megavoltage image reconstruction. A common computational technique that could be used for all of these processes would be very appealing. The maximum likelihood estimator, originally developed for emission tomography, can serve as a useful tool in imaging and radiotherapy. We believe that this approach can play an important role in the processes of optimization planning, dose reconstruction and kilovoltage and/or megavoltage image reconstruction. These processes involve computations that require comparable physical methods. They are also based on equivalent assumptions, and they have similar mathematical solutions. As a result, the maximum likelihood approach is able to provide a common framework for all three of these computational problems. We will demonstrate how maximum likelihood methods can be applied to optimization planning, dose reconstruction and megavoltage image reconstruction in tomotherapy. Results for planning optimization, dose reconstruction and megavoltage image reconstruction will be presented. Strengths and weaknesses of the methodology are analysed. Future directions for this work are also suggested. (author)

  10. Coalescent-based species tree inference from gene tree topologies under incomplete lineage sorting by maximum likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yufeng

    2012-03-01

    Incomplete lineage sorting can cause incongruence between the phylogenetic history of genes (the gene tree) and that of the species (the species tree), which can complicate the inference of phylogenies. In this article, I present a new coalescent-based algorithm for species tree inference with maximum likelihood. I first describe an improved method for computing the probability of a gene tree topology given a species tree, which is much faster than an existing algorithm by Degnan and Salter (2005). Based on this method, I develop a practical algorithm that takes a set of gene tree topologies and infers species trees with maximum likelihood. This algorithm searches for the best species tree by starting from initial species trees and performing heuristic search to obtain better trees with higher likelihood. This algorithm, called STELLS (which stands for Species Tree InfErence with Likelihood for Lineage Sorting), has been implemented in a program that is downloadable from the author's web page. The simulation results show that the STELLS algorithm is more accurate than an existing maximum likelihood method for many datasets, especially when there is noise in gene trees. I also show that the STELLS algorithm is efficient and can be applied to real biological datasets. © 2011 The Author. Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  11. Comparisons of likelihood and machine learning methods of individual classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guinand, B.; Topchy, A.; Page, K.S.; Burnham-Curtis, M. K.; Punch, W.F.; Scribner, K.T.

    2002-01-01

    Classification methods used in machine learning (e.g., artificial neural networks, decision trees, and k-nearest neighbor clustering) are rarely used with population genetic data. We compare different nonparametric machine learning techniques with parametric likelihood estimations commonly employed in population genetics for purposes of assigning individuals to their population of origin (“assignment tests”). Classifier accuracy was compared across simulated data sets representing different levels of population differentiation (low and high FST), number of loci surveyed (5 and 10), and allelic diversity (average of three or eight alleles per locus). Empirical data for the lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) exhibiting levels of population differentiation comparable to those used in simulations were examined to further evaluate and compare classification methods. Classification error rates associated with artificial neural networks and likelihood estimators were lower for simulated data sets compared to k-nearest neighbor and decision tree classifiers over the entire range of parameters considered. Artificial neural networks only marginally outperformed the likelihood method for simulated data (0–2.8% lower error rates). The relative performance of each machine learning classifier improved relative likelihood estimators for empirical data sets, suggesting an ability to “learn” and utilize properties of empirical genotypic arrays intrinsic to each population. Likelihood-based estimation methods provide a more accessible option for reliable assignment of individuals to the population of origin due to the intricacies in development and evaluation of artificial neural networks. In recent years, characterization of highly polymorphic molecular markers such as mini- and microsatellites and development of novel methods of analysis have enabled researchers to extend investigations of ecological and evolutionary processes below the population level to the level of

  12. Higher Education

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Kunle Amuwo: Higher Education Transformation: A Paradigm Shilt in South Africa? ... ty of such skills, especially at the middle management levels within the higher ... istics and virtues of differentiation and diversity. .... may be forced to close shop for lack of capacity to attract ..... necessarily lead to racial and gender equity,.

  13. Reducing the likelihood of future human activities that could affect geologic high-level waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1984-05-01

    The disposal of radioactive wastes in deep geologic formations provides a means of isolating the waste from people until the radioactivity has decayed to safe levels. However, isolating people from the wastes is a different problem, since we do not know what the future condition of society will be. The Human Interference Task Force was convened by the US Department of Energy to determine whether reasonable means exist (or could be developed) to reduce the likelihood of future human unintentionally intruding on radioactive waste isolation systems. The task force concluded that significant reductions in the likelihood of human interference could be achieved, for perhaps thousands of years into the future, if appropriate steps are taken to communicate the existence of the repository. Consequently, for two years the task force directed most of its study toward the area of long-term communication. Methods are discussed for achieving long-term communication by using permanent markers and widely disseminated records, with various steps taken to provide multiple levels of protection against loss, destruction, and major language/societal changes. Also developed is the concept of a universal symbol to denote Caution - Biohazardous Waste Buried Here. If used for the thousands of non-radioactive biohazardous waste sites in this country alone, a symbol could transcend generations and language changes, thereby vastly improving the likelihood of successful isolation of all buried biohazardous wastes

  14. Adjusted Empirical Likelihood Method in the Presence of Nuisance Parameters with Application to the Sharpe Ratio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuejiao Fu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The Sharpe ratio is a widely used risk-adjusted performance measurement in economics and finance. Most of the known statistical inferential methods devoted to the Sharpe ratio are based on the assumption that the data are normally distributed. In this article, without making any distributional assumption on the data, we develop the adjusted empirical likelihood method to obtain inference for a parameter of interest in the presence of nuisance parameters. We show that the log adjusted empirical likelihood ratio statistic is asymptotically distributed as the chi-square distribution. The proposed method is applied to obtain inference for the Sharpe ratio. Simulation results illustrate that the proposed method is comparable to Jobson and Korkie’s method (1981 and outperforms the empirical likelihood method when the data are from a symmetric distribution. In addition, when the data are from a skewed distribution, the proposed method significantly outperforms all other existing methods. A real-data example is analyzed to exemplify the application of the proposed method.

  15. Reducing the likelihood of future human activities that could affect geologic high-level waste repositories

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-05-01

    The disposal of radioactive wastes in deep geologic formations provides a means of isolating the waste from people until the radioactivity has decayed to safe levels. However, isolating people from the wastes is a different problem, since we do not know what the future condition of society will be. The Human Interference Task Force was convened by the US Department of Energy to determine whether reasonable means exist (or could be developed) to reduce the likelihood of future human unintentionally intruding on radioactive waste isolation systems. The task force concluded that significant reductions in the likelihood of human interference could be achieved, for perhaps thousands of years into the future, if appropriate steps are taken to communicate the existence of the repository. Consequently, for two years the task force directed most of its study toward the area of long-term communication. Methods are discussed for achieving long-term communication by using permanent markers and widely disseminated records, with various steps taken to provide multiple levels of protection against loss, destruction, and major language/societal changes. Also developed is the concept of a universal symbol to denote Caution - Biohazardous Waste Buried Here. If used for the thousands of non-radioactive biohazardous waste sites in this country alone, a symbol could transcend generations and language changes, thereby vastly improving the likelihood of successful isolation of all buried biohazardous wastes.

  16. Cosmic shear measurement with maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Alex; Taylor, Andy

    2017-06-01

    We investigate the problem of noise bias in maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori estimators for cosmic shear. We derive the leading and next-to-leading order biases and compute them in the context of galaxy ellipticity measurements, extending previous work on maximum likelihood inference for weak lensing. We show that a large part of the bias on these point estimators can be removed using information already contained in the likelihood when a galaxy model is specified, without the need for external calibration. We test these bias-corrected estimators on simulated galaxy images similar to those expected from planned space-based weak lensing surveys, with promising results. We find that the introduction of an intrinsic shape prior can help with mitigation of noise bias, such that the maximum a posteriori estimate can be made less biased than the maximum likelihood estimate. Second-order terms offer a check on the convergence of the estimators, but are largely subdominant. We show how biases propagate to shear estimates, demonstrating in our simple set-up that shear biases can be reduced by orders of magnitude and potentially to within the requirements of planned space-based surveys at mild signal-to-noise ratio. We find that second-order terms can exhibit significant cancellations at low signal-to-noise ratio when Gaussian noise is assumed, which has implications for inferring the performance of shear-measurement algorithms from simplified simulations. We discuss the viability of our point estimators as tools for lensing inference, arguing that they allow for the robust measurement of ellipticity and shear.

  17. Performance of penalized maximum likelihood in estimation of genetic covariances matrices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meyer Karin

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimation of genetic covariance matrices for multivariate problems comprising more than a few traits is inherently problematic, since sampling variation increases dramatically with the number of traits. This paper investigates the efficacy of regularized estimation of covariance components in a maximum likelihood framework, imposing a penalty on the likelihood designed to reduce sampling variation. In particular, penalties that "borrow strength" from the phenotypic covariance matrix are considered. Methods An extensive simulation study was carried out to investigate the reduction in average 'loss', i.e. the deviation in estimated matrices from the population values, and the accompanying bias for a range of parameter values and sample sizes. A number of penalties are examined, penalizing either the canonical eigenvalues or the genetic covariance or correlation matrices. In addition, several strategies to determine the amount of penalization to be applied, i.e. to estimate the appropriate tuning factor, are explored. Results It is shown that substantial reductions in loss for estimates of genetic covariance can be achieved for small to moderate sample sizes. While no penalty performed best overall, penalizing the variance among the estimated canonical eigenvalues on the logarithmic scale or shrinking the genetic towards the phenotypic correlation matrix appeared most advantageous. Estimating the tuning factor using cross-validation resulted in a loss reduction 10 to 15% less than that obtained if population values were known. Applying a mild penalty, chosen so that the deviation in likelihood from the maximum was non-significant, performed as well if not better than cross-validation and can be recommended as a pragmatic strategy. Conclusions Penalized maximum likelihood estimation provides the means to 'make the most' of limited and precious data and facilitates more stable estimation for multi-dimensional analyses. It should

  18. Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    & Development (LDRD) National Security Education Center (NSEC) Office of Science Programs Richard P Databases National Security Education Center (NSEC) Center for Nonlinear Studies Engineering Institute Scholarships STEM Education Programs Teachers (K-12) Students (K-12) Higher Education Regional Education

  19. Evidence Based Medicine; Positive and Negative Likelihood Ratios of Diagnostic Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Baratloo

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In the previous two parts of educational manuscript series in Emergency, we explained some screening characteristics of diagnostic tests including accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. In the 3rd  part we aimed to explain positive and negative likelihood ratio (LR as one of the most reliable performance measures of a diagnostic test. To better understand this characteristic of a test, it is first necessary to fully understand the concept of sensitivity and specificity. So we strongly advise you to review the 1st part of this series again. In short, the likelihood ratios are about the percentage of people with and without a disease but having the same test result. The prevalence of a disease can directly influence screening characteristics of a diagnostic test, especially its sensitivity and specificity. Trying to eliminate this effect, LR was developed. Pre-test probability of a disease multiplied by positive or negative LR can estimate post-test probability. Therefore, LR is the most important characteristic of a test to rule out or rule in a diagnosis. A positive likelihood ratio > 1 means higher probability of the disease to be present in a patient with a positive test. The further from 1, either higher or lower, the stronger the evidence to rule in or rule out the disease, respectively. It is obvious that tests with LR close to one are less practical. On the other hand, LR further from one will have more value for application in medicine. Usually tests with 0.1 < LR > 10 are considered suitable for implication in routine practice.

  20. Australian food life style segments and elaboration likelihood differences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brunsø, Karen; Reid, Mike

    As the global food marketing environment becomes more competitive, the international and comparative perspective of consumers' attitudes and behaviours becomes more important for both practitioners and academics. This research employs the Food-Related Life Style (FRL) instrument in Australia...... in order to 1) determine Australian Life Style Segments and compare these with their European counterparts, and to 2) explore differences in elaboration likelihood among the Australian segments, e.g. consumers' interest and motivation to perceive product related communication. The results provide new...

  1. Maximum-likelihood method for numerical inversion of Mellin transform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iqbal, M.

    1997-01-01

    A method is described for inverting the Mellin transform which uses an expansion in Laguerre polynomials and converts the Mellin transform to Laplace transform, then the maximum-likelihood regularization method is used to recover the original function of the Mellin transform. The performance of the method is illustrated by the inversion of the test functions available in the literature (J. Inst. Math. Appl., 20 (1977) 73; Math. Comput., 53 (1989) 589). Effectiveness of the method is shown by results obtained through demonstration by means of tables and diagrams

  2. How to Improve the Likelihood of CDM Approval?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Urs Steiner; Svendsen, Gert Tinggaard

    2014-01-01

    How can the likelihood of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) approval be improved in the face of institutional shortcomings? To answer this question, we focus on the three institutional shortcomings of income sharing, risk sharing and corruption prevention concerning afforestation/reforestation (A....../R). Furthermore, three main stakeholders are identified, namely investors, governments and agents in a principal-agent model regarding monitoring and enforcement capacity. Developing countries such as West Africa have, despite huge potentials, not been integrated in A/R CDM projects yet. Remote sensing, however...

  3. Maximum Likelihood and Bayes Estimation in Randomly Censored Geometric Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hare Krishna

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we study the geometric distribution under randomly censored data. Maximum likelihood estimators and confidence intervals based on Fisher information matrix are derived for the unknown parameters with randomly censored data. Bayes estimators are also developed using beta priors under generalized entropy and LINEX loss functions. Also, Bayesian credible and highest posterior density (HPD credible intervals are obtained for the parameters. Expected time on test and reliability characteristics are also analyzed in this article. To compare various estimates developed in the article, a Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out. Finally, for illustration purpose, a randomly censored real data set is discussed.

  4. Elemental composition of cosmic rays using a maximum likelihood method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruddick, K.

    1996-01-01

    We present a progress report on our attempts to determine the composition of cosmic rays in the knee region of the energy spectrum. We have used three different devices to measure properties of the extensive air showers produced by primary cosmic rays: the Soudan 2 underground detector measures the muon flux deep underground, a proportional tube array samples shower density at the surface of the earth, and a Cherenkov array observes light produced high in the atmosphere. We have begun maximum likelihood fits to these measurements with the hope of determining the nuclear mass number A on an event by event basis. (orig.)

  5. Likelihood-Based Inference in Nonlinear Error-Correction Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Dennis; Rahbæk, Anders

    We consider a class of vector nonlinear error correction models where the transfer function (or loadings) of the stationary relation- ships is nonlinear. This includes in particular the smooth transition models. A general representation theorem is given which establishes the dynamic properties...... and a linear trend in general. Gaussian likelihood-based estimators are considered for the long- run cointegration parameters, and the short-run parameters. Asymp- totic theory is provided for these and it is discussed to what extend asymptotic normality and mixed normaity can be found. A simulation study...

  6. Likelihood Estimation of Gamma Ray Bursts Duration Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Horvath, Istvan

    2005-01-01

    Two classes of Gamma Ray Bursts have been identified so far, characterized by T90 durations shorter and longer than approximately 2 seconds. It was shown that the BATSE 3B data allow a good fit with three Gaussian distributions in log T90. In the same Volume in ApJ. another paper suggested that the third class of GRBs is may exist. Using the full BATSE catalog here we present the maximum likelihood estimation, which gives us 0.5% probability to having only two subclasses. The MC simulation co...

  7. Improved Likelihood Function in Particle-based IR Eye Tracking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Satria, R.; Sorensen, J.; Hammoud, R.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we propose a log likelihood-ratio function of foreground and background models used in a particle filter to track the eye region in dark-bright pupil image sequences. This model fuses information from both dark and bright pupil images and their difference image into one model. Our...... enhanced tracker overcomes the issues of prior selection of static thresholds during the detection of feature observations in the bright-dark difference images. The auto-initialization process is performed using cascaded classifier trained using adaboost and adapted to IR eye images. Experiments show good...

  8. Estimating likelihood of future crashes for crash-prone drivers

    OpenAIRE

    Subasish Das; Xiaoduan Sun; Fan Wang; Charles Leboeuf

    2015-01-01

    At-fault crash-prone drivers are usually considered as the high risk group for possible future incidents or crashes. In Louisiana, 34% of crashes are repeatedly committed by the at-fault crash-prone drivers who represent only 5% of the total licensed drivers in the state. This research has conducted an exploratory data analysis based on the driver faultiness and proneness. The objective of this study is to develop a crash prediction model to estimate the likelihood of future crashes for the a...

  9. Similar tests and the standardized log likelihood ratio statistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jens Ledet

    1986-01-01

    When testing an affine hypothesis in an exponential family the 'ideal' procedure is to calculate the exact similar test, or an approximation to this, based on the conditional distribution given the minimal sufficient statistic under the null hypothesis. By contrast to this there is a 'primitive......' approach in which the marginal distribution of a test statistic considered and any nuisance parameter appearing in the test statistic is replaced by an estimate. We show here that when using standardized likelihood ratio statistics the 'primitive' procedure is in fact an 'ideal' procedure to order O(n -3...

  10. Maximum Likelihood Joint Tracking and Association in Strong Clutter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonid I. Perlovsky

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We have developed a maximum likelihood formulation for a joint detection, tracking and association problem. An efficient non-combinatorial algorithm for this problem is developed in case of strong clutter for radar data. By using an iterative procedure of the dynamic logic process “from vague-to-crisp” explained in the paper, the new tracker overcomes the combinatorial complexity of tracking in highly-cluttered scenarios and results in an orders-of-magnitude improvement in signal-to-clutter ratio.

  11. Statistical analysis of COMPTEL maximum likelihood-ratio distributions: evidence for a signal from previously undetected AGN

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, O. R.; Bennett, K.; Much, R.; Schoenfelder, V.; Blom, J. J.; Ryan, J.

    1997-01-01

    The maximum likelihood-ratio method is frequently used in COMPTEL analysis to determine the significance of a point source at a given location. In this paper we do not consider whether the likelihood-ratio at a particular location indicates a detection, but rather whether distributions of likelihood-ratios derived from many locations depart from that expected for source free data. We have constructed distributions of likelihood-ratios by reading values from standard COMPTEL maximum-likelihood ratio maps at positions corresponding to the locations of different categories of AGN. Distributions derived from the locations of Seyfert galaxies are indistinguishable, according to a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, from those obtained from ''random'' locations, but differ slightly from those obtained from the locations of flat spectrum radio loud quasars, OVVs, and BL Lac objects. This difference is not due to known COMPTEL sources, since regions near these sources are excluded from the analysis. We suggest that it might arise from a number of sources with fluxes below the COMPTEL detection threshold

  12. Applying the elaboration likelihood model of persuasion to a videotape-based eating disorders primary prevention program for adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Withers, Giselle F; Wertheim, Eleanor H

    2004-01-01

    This study applied principles from the Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion to the prevention of disordered eating. Early adolescent girls watched either a preventive videotape only (n=114) or video plus post-video activity (verbal discussion, written exercises, or control discussion) (n=187); or had no intervention (n=104). Significantly more body image and knowledge improvements occurred at post video and follow-up in the intervention groups compared to no intervention. There were no outcome differences among intervention groups, or between girls with high or low elaboration likelihood. Further research is needed in integrating the videotape into a broader prevention package.

  13. Updated logistic regression equations for the calculation of post-fire debris-flow likelihood in the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staley, Dennis M.; Negri, Jacquelyn A.; Kean, Jason W.; Laber, Jayme L.; Tillery, Anne C.; Youberg, Ann M.

    2016-06-30

    Wildfire can significantly alter the hydrologic response of a watershed to the extent that even modest rainstorms can generate dangerous flash floods and debris flows. To reduce public exposure to hazard, the U.S. Geological Survey produces post-fire debris-flow hazard assessments for select fires in the western United States. We use publicly available geospatial data describing basin morphology, burn severity, soil properties, and rainfall characteristics to estimate the statistical likelihood that debris flows will occur in response to a storm of a given rainfall intensity. Using an empirical database and refined geospatial analysis methods, we defined new equations for the prediction of debris-flow likelihood using logistic regression methods. We showed that the new logistic regression model outperformed previous models used to predict debris-flow likelihood.

  14. Likelihood Approximation With Parallel Hierarchical Matrices For Large Spatial Datasets

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-11-01

    The main goal of this article is to introduce the parallel hierarchical matrix library HLIBpro to the statistical community. We describe the HLIBCov package, which is an extension of the HLIBpro library for approximating large covariance matrices and maximizing likelihood functions. We show that an approximate Cholesky factorization of a dense matrix of size $2M\\\\times 2M$ can be computed on a modern multi-core desktop in few minutes. Further, HLIBCov is used for estimating the unknown parameters such as the covariance length, variance and smoothness parameter of a Matérn covariance function by maximizing the joint Gaussian log-likelihood function. The computational bottleneck here is expensive linear algebra arithmetics due to large and dense covariance matrices. Therefore covariance matrices are approximated in the hierarchical ($\\\\H$-) matrix format with computational cost $\\\\mathcal{O}(k^2n \\\\log^2 n/p)$ and storage $\\\\mathcal{O}(kn \\\\log n)$, where the rank $k$ is a small integer (typically $k<25$), $p$ the number of cores and $n$ the number of locations on a fairly general mesh. We demonstrate a synthetic example, where the true values of known parameters are known. For reproducibility we provide the C++ code, the documentation, and the synthetic data.

  15. Likelihood Approximation With Parallel Hierarchical Matrices For Large Spatial Datasets

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander; Sun, Ying; Genton, Marc G.; Keyes, David E.

    2017-01-01

    The main goal of this article is to introduce the parallel hierarchical matrix library HLIBpro to the statistical community. We describe the HLIBCov package, which is an extension of the HLIBpro library for approximating large covariance matrices and maximizing likelihood functions. We show that an approximate Cholesky factorization of a dense matrix of size $2M\\times 2M$ can be computed on a modern multi-core desktop in few minutes. Further, HLIBCov is used for estimating the unknown parameters such as the covariance length, variance and smoothness parameter of a Matérn covariance function by maximizing the joint Gaussian log-likelihood function. The computational bottleneck here is expensive linear algebra arithmetics due to large and dense covariance matrices. Therefore covariance matrices are approximated in the hierarchical ($\\H$-) matrix format with computational cost $\\mathcal{O}(k^2n \\log^2 n/p)$ and storage $\\mathcal{O}(kn \\log n)$, where the rank $k$ is a small integer (typically $k<25$), $p$ the number of cores and $n$ the number of locations on a fairly general mesh. We demonstrate a synthetic example, where the true values of known parameters are known. For reproducibility we provide the C++ code, the documentation, and the synthetic data.

  16. Likelihood inference for a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Ørregård Nielsen, Morten

    2012-01-01

    such that the process X_{t} is fractional of order d and cofractional of order d-b; that is, there exist vectors ß for which ß'X_{t} is fractional of order d-b, and no other fractionality order is possible. We define the statistical model by 0inference when the true values satisfy b0¿1/2 and d0-b0......We consider model based inference in a fractionally cointegrated (or cofractional) vector autoregressive model with a restricted constant term, ¿, based on the Gaussian likelihood conditional on initial values. The model nests the I(d) VAR model. We give conditions on the parameters...... process in the parameters when errors are i.i.d. with suitable moment conditions and initial values are bounded. When the limit is deterministic this implies uniform convergence in probability of the conditional likelihood function. If the true value b0>1/2, we prove that the limit distribution of (ß...

  17. Simulation-based marginal likelihood for cluster strong lensing cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killedar, M.; Borgani, S.; Fabjan, D.; Dolag, K.; Granato, G.; Meneghetti, M.; Planelles, S.; Ragone-Figueroa, C.

    2018-01-01

    Comparisons between observed and predicted strong lensing properties of galaxy clusters have been routinely used to claim either tension or consistency with Λ cold dark matter cosmology. However, standard approaches to such cosmological tests are unable to quantify the preference for one cosmology over another. We advocate approximating the relevant Bayes factor using a marginal likelihood that is based on the following summary statistic: the posterior probability distribution function for the parameters of the scaling relation between Einstein radii and cluster mass, α and β. We demonstrate, for the first time, a method of estimating the marginal likelihood using the X-ray selected z > 0.5 Massive Cluster Survey clusters as a case in point and employing both N-body and hydrodynamic simulations of clusters. We investigate the uncertainty in this estimate and consequential ability to compare competing cosmologies, which arises from incomplete descriptions of baryonic processes, discrepancies in cluster selection criteria, redshift distribution and dynamical state. The relation between triaxial cluster masses at various overdensities provides a promising alternative to the strong lensing test.

  18. Menyoal Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM dan Teori Retorika

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yudi Perbawaningsih

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: Persuasion is a communication process to establish or change attitudes, which can be understood through theory of Rhetoric and theory of Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM. This study elaborates these theories in a Public Lecture series which to persuade the students in choosing their concentration of study. The result shows that in term of persuasion effectiveness it is not quite relevant to separate the message and its source. The quality of source is determined by the quality of the message, and vice versa. Separating the two routes of the persuasion process as described in the ELM theory would not be relevant. Abstrak: Persuasi adalah proses komunikasi untuk membentuk atau mengubah sikap, yang dapat dipahami dengan teori Retorika dan teori Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM. Penelitian ini mengelaborasi teori tersebut dalam Kuliah Umum sebagai sarana mempersuasi mahasiswa untuk memilih konsentrasi studi studi yang didasarkan pada proses pengolahan informasi. Menggunakan metode survey, didapatkan hasil yaitu tidaklah cukup relevan memisahkan pesan dan narasumber dalam melihat efektivitas persuasi. Keduanya menyatu yang berarti bahwa kualitas narasumber ditentukan oleh kualitas pesan yang disampaikannya, dan sebaliknya. Memisahkan proses persuasi dalam dua lajur seperti yang dijelaskan dalam ELM teori menjadi tidak relevan.

  19. Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bader, Kenneth B; Holland, Christy K

    2013-01-07

    The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form I(CAV) = P(r)/f (where P(r) is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs.

  20. Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrickson, Robert M.

    This chapter reports 1982 cases involving aspects of higher education. Interesting cases noted dealt with the federal government's authority to regulate state employees' retirement and raised the questions of whether Title IX covers employment, whether financial aid makes a college a program under Title IX, and whether sex segregated mortality…

  1. Maximum likelihood positioning algorithm for high-resolution PET scanners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gross-Weege, Nicolas; Schug, David; Hallen, Patrick; Schulz, Volkmar

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: In high-resolution positron emission tomography (PET), lightsharing elements are incorporated into typical detector stacks to read out scintillator arrays in which one scintillator element (crystal) is smaller than the size of the readout channel. In order to identify the hit crystal by means of the measured light distribution, a positioning algorithm is required. One commonly applied positioning algorithm uses the center of gravity (COG) of the measured light distribution. The COG algorithm is limited in spatial resolution by noise and intercrystal Compton scatter. The purpose of this work is to develop a positioning algorithm which overcomes this limitation. Methods: The authors present a maximum likelihood (ML) algorithm which compares a set of expected light distributions given by probability density functions (PDFs) with the measured light distribution. Instead of modeling the PDFs by using an analytical model, the PDFs of the proposed ML algorithm are generated assuming a single-gamma-interaction model from measured data. The algorithm was evaluated with a hot-rod phantom measurement acquired with the preclinical HYPERION II D PET scanner. In order to assess the performance with respect to sensitivity, energy resolution, and image quality, the ML algorithm was compared to a COG algorithm which calculates the COG from a restricted set of channels. The authors studied the energy resolution of the ML and the COG algorithm regarding incomplete light distributions (missing channel information caused by detector dead time). Furthermore, the authors investigated the effects of using a filter based on the likelihood values on sensitivity, energy resolution, and image quality. Results: A sensitivity gain of up to 19% was demonstrated in comparison to the COG algorithm for the selected operation parameters. Energy resolution and image quality were on a similar level for both algorithms. Additionally, the authors demonstrated that the performance of the ML

  2. Factors Associated With the Likelihood of Hospitalization Following Emergency Department Visits for Behavioral Health Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Jane E; Desai, Pratikkumar V; Hoot, Nathan R; Gearing, Robin E; Jeong, Shin; Meyer, Thomas D; Soares, Jair C; Begley, Charles E

    2016-11-01

    Behavioral health-related emergency department (ED) visits have been linked with ED overcrowding, an increased demand on limited resources, and a longer length of stay (LOS) due in part to patients being admitted to the hospital but waiting for an inpatient bed. This study examines factors associated with the likelihood of hospital admission for ED patients with behavioral health conditions at 16 hospital-based EDs in a large urban area in the southern United States. Using Andersen's Behavioral Model of Health Service Use for guidance, the study examined the relationship between predisposing (characteristics of the individual, i.e., age, sex, race/ethnicity), enabling (system or structural factors affecting healthcare access), and need (clinical) factors and the likelihood of hospitalization following ED visits for behavioral health conditions (n = 28,716 ED visits). In the adjusted analysis, a logistic fixed-effects model with blockwise entry was used to estimate the relative importance of predisposing, enabling, and need variables added separately as blocks while controlling for variation in unobserved hospital-specific practices across hospitals and time in years. Significant predisposing factors associated with an increased likelihood of hospitalization following an ED visit included increasing age, while African American race was associated with a lower likelihood of hospitalization. Among enabling factors, arrival by emergency transport and a longer ED LOS were associated with a greater likelihood of hospitalization while being uninsured and the availability of community-based behavioral health services within 5 miles of the ED were associated with lower odds. Among need factors, having a discharge diagnosis of schizophrenia/psychotic spectrum disorder, an affective disorder, a personality disorder, dementia, or an impulse control disorder as well as secondary diagnoses of suicidal ideation and/or suicidal behavior increased the likelihood of hospitalization

  3. The asymptotic behaviour of the maximum likelihood function of Kriging approximations using the Gaussian correlation function

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kok, S

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available continuously as the correlation function hyper-parameters approach zero. Since the global minimizer of the maximum likelihood function is an asymptote in this case, it is unclear if maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) remains valid. Numerical ill...

  4. Transfer Entropy as a Log-Likelihood Ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

    2012-09-01

    Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

  5. Neutron spectra unfolding with maximum entropy and maximum likelihood

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Itoh, Shikoh; Tsunoda, Toshiharu

    1989-01-01

    A new unfolding theory has been established on the basis of the maximum entropy principle and the maximum likelihood method. This theory correctly embodies the Poisson statistics of neutron detection, and always brings a positive solution over the whole energy range. Moreover, the theory unifies both problems of overdetermined and of underdetermined. For the latter, the ambiguity in assigning a prior probability, i.e. the initial guess in the Bayesian sense, has become extinct by virtue of the principle. An approximate expression of the covariance matrix for the resultant spectra is also presented. An efficient algorithm to solve the nonlinear system, which appears in the present study, has been established. Results of computer simulation showed the effectiveness of the present theory. (author)

  6. Narrow band interference cancelation in OFDM: Astructured maximum likelihood approach

    KAUST Repository

    Sohail, Muhammad Sadiq

    2012-06-01

    This paper presents a maximum likelihood (ML) approach to mitigate the effect of narrow band interference (NBI) in a zero padded orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (ZP-OFDM) system. The NBI is assumed to be time variant and asynchronous with the frequency grid of the ZP-OFDM system. The proposed structure based technique uses the fact that the NBI signal is sparse as compared to the ZP-OFDM signal in the frequency domain. The structure is also useful in reducing the computational complexity of the proposed method. The paper also presents a data aided approach for improved NBI estimation. The suitability of the proposed method is demonstrated through simulations. © 2012 IEEE.

  7. Preliminary attempt on maximum likelihood tomosynthesis reconstruction of DEI data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Zhentian; Huang Zhifeng; Zhang Li; Kang Kejun; Chen Zhiqiang; Zhu Peiping

    2009-01-01

    Tomosynthesis is a three-dimension reconstruction method that can remove the effect of superimposition with limited angle projections. It is especially promising in mammography where radiation dose is concerned. In this paper, we propose a maximum likelihood tomosynthesis reconstruction algorithm (ML-TS) on the apparent absorption data of diffraction enhanced imaging (DEI). The motivation of this contribution is to develop a tomosynthesis algorithm in low-dose or noisy circumstances and make DEI get closer to clinic application. The theoretical statistical models of DEI data in physics are analyzed and the proposed algorithm is validated with the experimental data at the Beijing Synchrotron Radiation Facility (BSRF). The results of ML-TS have better contrast compared with the well known 'shift-and-add' algorithm and FBP algorithm. (authors)

  8. H.264 SVC Complexity Reduction Based on Likelihood Mode Decision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Balaji

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available H.264 Advanced Video Coding (AVC was prolonged to Scalable Video Coding (SVC. SVC executes in different electronics gadgets such as personal computer, HDTV, SDTV, IPTV, and full-HDTV in which user demands various scaling of the same content. The various scaling is resolution, frame rate, quality, heterogeneous networks, bandwidth, and so forth. Scaling consumes more encoding time and computational complexity during mode selection. In this paper, to reduce encoding time and computational complexity, a fast mode decision algorithm based on likelihood mode decision (LMD is proposed. LMD is evaluated in both temporal and spatial scaling. From the results, we conclude that LMD performs well, when compared to the previous fast mode decision algorithms. The comparison parameters are time, PSNR, and bit rate. LMD achieve time saving of 66.65% with 0.05% detriment in PSNR and 0.17% increment in bit rate compared with the full search method.

  9. H.264 SVC Complexity Reduction Based on Likelihood Mode Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balaji, L; Thyagharajan, K K

    2015-01-01

    H.264 Advanced Video Coding (AVC) was prolonged to Scalable Video Coding (SVC). SVC executes in different electronics gadgets such as personal computer, HDTV, SDTV, IPTV, and full-HDTV in which user demands various scaling of the same content. The various scaling is resolution, frame rate, quality, heterogeneous networks, bandwidth, and so forth. Scaling consumes more encoding time and computational complexity during mode selection. In this paper, to reduce encoding time and computational complexity, a fast mode decision algorithm based on likelihood mode decision (LMD) is proposed. LMD is evaluated in both temporal and spatial scaling. From the results, we conclude that LMD performs well, when compared to the previous fast mode decision algorithms. The comparison parameters are time, PSNR, and bit rate. LMD achieve time saving of 66.65% with 0.05% detriment in PSNR and 0.17% increment in bit rate compared with the full search method.

  10. Likelihood Approximation With Hierarchical Matrices For Large Spatial Datasets

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-09-03

    We use available measurements to estimate the unknown parameters (variance, smoothness parameter, and covariance length) of a covariance function by maximizing the joint Gaussian log-likelihood function. To overcome cubic complexity in the linear algebra, we approximate the discretized covariance function in the hierarchical (H-) matrix format. The H-matrix format has a log-linear computational cost and storage O(kn log n), where the rank k is a small integer and n is the number of locations. The H-matrix technique allows us to work with general covariance matrices in an efficient way, since H-matrices can approximate inhomogeneous covariance functions, with a fairly general mesh that is not necessarily axes-parallel, and neither the covariance matrix itself nor its inverse have to be sparse. We demonstrate our method with Monte Carlo simulations and an application to soil moisture data. The C, C++ codes and data are freely available.

  11. Music genre classification via likelihood fusion from multiple feature models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiu, Yu; Kuo, C.-C. J.

    2005-01-01

    Music genre provides an efficient way to index songs in a music database, and can be used as an effective means to retrieval music of a similar type, i.e. content-based music retrieval. A new two-stage scheme for music genre classification is proposed in this work. At the first stage, we examine a couple of different features, construct their corresponding parametric models (e.g. GMM and HMM) and compute their likelihood functions to yield soft classification results. In particular, the timbre, rhythm and temporal variation features are considered. Then, at the second stage, these soft classification results are integrated to result in a hard decision for final music genre classification. Experimental results are given to demonstrate the performance of the proposed scheme.

  12. Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Item Response Models in R

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew S. Johnson

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available Item response theory (IRT models are a class of statistical models used by researchers to describe the response behaviors of individuals to a set of categorically scored items. The most common IRT models can be classified as generalized linear fixed- and/or mixed-effect models. Although IRT models appear most often in the psychological testing literature, researchers in other fields have successfully utilized IRT-like models in a wide variety of applications. This paper discusses the three major methods of estimation in IRT and develops R functions utilizing the built-in capabilities of the R environment to find the marginal maximum likelihood estimates of the generalized partial credit model. The currently available R packages ltm is also discussed.

  13. Maximum likelihood estimation of phase-type distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Esparza, Luz Judith R

    for both univariate and multivariate cases. Methods like the EM algorithm and Markov chain Monte Carlo are applied for this purpose. Furthermore, this thesis provides explicit formulae for computing the Fisher information matrix for discrete and continuous phase-type distributions, which is needed to find......This work is concerned with the statistical inference of phase-type distributions and the analysis of distributions with rational Laplace transform, known as matrix-exponential distributions. The thesis is focused on the estimation of the maximum likelihood parameters of phase-type distributions...... confidence regions for their estimated parameters. Finally, a new general class of distributions, called bilateral matrix-exponential distributions, is defined. These distributions have the entire real line as domain and can be used, for instance, for modelling. In addition, this class of distributions...

  14. The elaboration likelihood model and communication about food risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frewer, L J; Howard, C; Hedderley, D; Shepherd, R

    1997-12-01

    Factors such as hazard type and source credibility have been identified as important in the establishment of effective strategies for risk communication. The elaboration likelihood model was adapted to investigate the potential impact of hazard type, information source, and persuasive content of information on individual engagement in elaborative, or thoughtful, cognitions about risk messages. One hundred sixty respondents were allocated to one of eight experimental groups, and the effects of source credibility, persuasive content of information and hazard type were systematically varied. The impact of the different factors on beliefs about the information and elaborative processing examined. Low credibility was particularly important in reducing risk perceptions, although persuasive content and hazard type were also influential in determining whether elaborative processing occurred.

  15. Maximum Likelihood Blood Velocity Estimator Incorporating Properties of Flow Physics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schlaikjer, Malene; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2004-01-01

    )-data under investigation. The flow physic properties are exploited in the second term, as the range of velocity values investigated in the cross-correlation analysis are compared to the velocity estimates in the temporal and spatial neighborhood of the signal segment under investigation. The new estimator...... has been compared to the cross-correlation (CC) estimator and the previously developed maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). The results show that the CMLE can handle a larger velocity search range and is capable of estimating even low velocity levels from tissue motion. The CC and the MLE produce...... for the CC and the MLE. When the velocity search range is set to twice the limit of the CC and the MLE, the number of incorrect velocity estimates are 0, 19.1, and 7.2% for the CMLE, CC, and MLE, respectively. The ability to handle a larger search range and estimating low velocity levels was confirmed...

  16. Accelerated maximum likelihood parameter estimation for stochastic biochemical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daigle Bernie J

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A prerequisite for the mechanistic simulation of a biochemical system is detailed knowledge of its kinetic parameters. Despite recent experimental advances, the estimation of unknown parameter values from observed data is still a bottleneck for obtaining accurate simulation results. Many methods exist for parameter estimation in deterministic biochemical systems; methods for discrete stochastic systems are less well developed. Given the probabilistic nature of stochastic biochemical models, a natural approach is to choose parameter values that maximize the probability of the observed data with respect to the unknown parameters, a.k.a. the maximum likelihood parameter estimates (MLEs. MLE computation for all but the simplest models requires the simulation of many system trajectories that are consistent with experimental data. For models with unknown parameters, this presents a computational challenge, as the generation of consistent trajectories can be an extremely rare occurrence. Results We have developed Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization with Modified Cross-Entropy Method (MCEM2: an accelerated method for calculating MLEs that combines advances in rare event simulation with a computationally efficient version of the Monte Carlo expectation-maximization (MCEM algorithm. Our method requires no prior knowledge regarding parameter values, and it automatically provides a multivariate parameter uncertainty estimate. We applied the method to five stochastic systems of increasing complexity, progressing from an analytically tractable pure-birth model to a computationally demanding model of yeast-polarization. Our results demonstrate that MCEM2 substantially accelerates MLE computation on all tested models when compared to a stand-alone version of MCEM. Additionally, we show how our method identifies parameter values for certain classes of models more accurately than two recently proposed computationally efficient methods

  17. CONSTRUCTING A FLEXIBLE LIKELIHOOD FUNCTION FOR SPECTROSCOPIC INFERENCE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Czekala, Ian; Andrews, Sean M.; Mandel, Kaisey S.; Green, Gregory M.; Hogg, David W.

    2015-01-01

    We present a modular, extensible likelihood framework for spectroscopic inference based on synthetic model spectra. The subtraction of an imperfect model from a continuously sampled spectrum introduces covariance between adjacent datapoints (pixels) into the residual spectrum. For the high signal-to-noise data with large spectral range that is commonly employed in stellar astrophysics, that covariant structure can lead to dramatically underestimated parameter uncertainties (and, in some cases, biases). We construct a likelihood function that accounts for the structure of the covariance matrix, utilizing the machinery of Gaussian process kernels. This framework specifically addresses the common problem of mismatches in model spectral line strengths (with respect to data) due to intrinsic model imperfections (e.g., in the atomic/molecular databases or opacity prescriptions) by developing a novel local covariance kernel formalism that identifies and self-consistently downweights pathological spectral line “outliers.” By fitting many spectra in a hierarchical manner, these local kernels provide a mechanism to learn about and build data-driven corrections to synthetic spectral libraries. An open-source software implementation of this approach is available at http://iancze.github.io/Starfish, including a sophisticated probabilistic scheme for spectral interpolation when using model libraries that are sparsely sampled in the stellar parameters. We demonstrate some salient features of the framework by fitting the high-resolution V-band spectrum of WASP-14, an F5 dwarf with a transiting exoplanet, and the moderate-resolution K-band spectrum of Gliese 51, an M5 field dwarf

  18. Likelihood of illegal alcohol sales at professional sport stadiums.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toomey, Traci L; Erickson, Darin J; Lenk, Kathleen M; Kilian, Gunna R

    2008-11-01

    Several studies have assessed the propensity for illegal alcohol sales at licensed alcohol establishments and community festivals, but no previous studies examined the propensity for these sales at professional sport stadiums. In this study, we assessed the likelihood of alcohol sales to both underage youth and obviously intoxicated patrons at professional sports stadiums across the United States, and assessed the factors related to likelihood of both types of alcohol sales. We conducted pseudo-underage (i.e., persons age 21 or older who appear under 21) and pseudo-intoxicated (i.e., persons feigning intoxication) alcohol purchase attempts at stadiums that house professional hockey, basketball, baseball, and football teams. We conducted the purchase attempts at 16 sport stadiums located in 5 states. We measured 2 outcome variables: pseudo-underage sale (yes, no) and pseudo-intoxicated sale (yes, no), and 3 types of independent variables: (1) seller characteristics, (2) purchase attempt characteristics, and (3) event characteristics. Following univariate and bivariate analyses, we a separate series of logistic generalized mixed regression models for each outcome variable. The overall sales rates to the pseudo-underage and pseudo-intoxicated buyers were 18% and 74%, respectively. In the multivariate logistic analyses, we found that the odds of a sale to a pseudo-underage buyer in the stands was 2.9 as large as the odds of a sale at the concession booths (30% vs. 13%; p = 0.01). The odds of a sale to an obviously intoxicated buyer in the stands was 2.9 as large as the odds of a sale at the concession booths (89% vs. 73%; p = 0.02). Similar to studies assessing illegal alcohol sales at licensed alcohol establishments and community festivals, findings from this study shows the need for interventions specifically focused on illegal alcohol sales at professional sporting events.

  19. Targeted maximum likelihood estimation for a binary treatment: A tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luque-Fernandez, Miguel Angel; Schomaker, Michael; Rachet, Bernard; Schnitzer, Mireille E

    2018-04-23

    When estimating the average effect of a binary treatment (or exposure) on an outcome, methods that incorporate propensity scores, the G-formula, or targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) are preferred over naïve regression approaches, which are biased under misspecification of a parametric outcome model. In contrast propensity score methods require the correct specification of an exposure model. Double-robust methods only require correct specification of either the outcome or the exposure model. Targeted maximum likelihood estimation is a semiparametric double-robust method that improves the chances of correct model specification by allowing for flexible estimation using (nonparametric) machine-learning methods. It therefore requires weaker assumptions than its competitors. We provide a step-by-step guided implementation of TMLE and illustrate it in a realistic scenario based on cancer epidemiology where assumptions about correct model specification and positivity (ie, when a study participant had 0 probability of receiving the treatment) are nearly violated. This article provides a concise and reproducible educational introduction to TMLE for a binary outcome and exposure. The reader should gain sufficient understanding of TMLE from this introductory tutorial to be able to apply the method in practice. Extensive R-code is provided in easy-to-read boxes throughout the article for replicability. Stata users will find a testing implementation of TMLE and additional material in the Appendix S1 and at the following GitHub repository: https://github.com/migariane/SIM-TMLE-tutorial. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Maximum-likelihood estimation of the hyperbolic parameters from grouped observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jens Ledet

    1988-01-01

    a least-squares problem. The second procedure Hypesti first approaches the maximum-likelihood estimate by iterating in the profile-log likelihood function for the scale parameter. Close to the maximum of the likelihood function, the estimation is brought to an end by iteration, using all four parameters...

  1. A short proof that phylogenetic tree reconstruction by maximum likelihood is hard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roch, Sebastien

    2006-01-01

    Maximum likelihood is one of the most widely used techniques to infer evolutionary histories. Although it is thought to be intractable, a proof of its hardness has been lacking. Here, we give a short proof that computing the maximum likelihood tree is NP-hard by exploiting a connection between likelihood and parsimony observed by Tuffley and Steel.

  2. A Short Proof that Phylogenetic Tree Reconstruction by Maximum Likelihood is Hard

    OpenAIRE

    Roch, S.

    2005-01-01

    Maximum likelihood is one of the most widely used techniques to infer evolutionary histories. Although it is thought to be intractable, a proof of its hardness has been lacking. Here, we give a short proof that computing the maximum likelihood tree is NP-hard by exploiting a connection between likelihood and parsimony observed by Tuffley and Steel.

  3. Failed refutations: further comments on parsimony and likelihood methods and their relationship to Popper's degree of corroboration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Queiroz, Kevin; Poe, Steven

    2003-06-01

    single body of data; however, both classes of methods can be used to perform severe tests. The assumption of descent with modification is insufficient background knowledge to justify cladistic parsimony as a method for assessing degree of corroboration. Invoking equivalency between parsimony methods and likelihood models that assume no common mechanism emphasizes the necessity of additional assumptions, at least some of which are probabilistic in nature. Incongruent characters do not qualify as falsifiers of phylogenetic hypotheses except under extremely unrealistic evolutionary models; therefore, justifications of parsimony methods as falsificationist based on the idea that they minimize the ad hoc dismissal of falsifiers are questionable. Probabilistic concepts such as degree of corroboration and likelihood provide a more appropriate framework for understanding how phylogenetics conforms with Popper's philosophy of science. Likelihood ratio tests do not assume what is at issue but instead are methods for testing hypotheses according to an accepted standard of statistical significance and for incorporating considerations about test severity. These tests are fundamentally similar to Popper's degree of corroboration in being based on the relationship between the probability of the evidence e in the presence versus absence of the hypothesis h, i.e., between p(e|hb) and p(e|b), where b is the background knowledge. Both parsimony and likelihood methods are inductive in that their inferences (particular trees) contain more information than (and therefore do not follow necessarily from) the observations upon which they are based; however, both are deductive in that their conclusions (tree lengths and likelihoods) follow necessarily from their premises (particular trees, observed character state distributions, and evolutionary models). For these and other reasons, phylogenetic likelihood methods are highly compatible with Karl Popper's philosophy of science and offer several

  4. The likelihood of achieving quantified road safety targets: a binary logistic regression model for possible factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sze, N N; Wong, S C; Lee, C Y

    2014-12-01

    In past several decades, many countries have set quantified road safety targets to motivate transport authorities to develop systematic road safety strategies and measures and facilitate the achievement of continuous road safety improvement. Studies have been conducted to evaluate the association between the setting of quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction, in both the short and long run, by comparing road fatalities before and after the implementation of a quantified road safety target. However, not much work has been done to evaluate whether the quantified road safety targets are actually achieved. In this study, we used a binary logistic regression model to examine the factors - including vehicle ownership, fatality rate, and national income, in addition to level of ambition and duration of target - that contribute to a target's success. We analyzed 55 quantified road safety targets set by 29 countries from 1981 to 2009, and the results indicate that targets that are in progress and with lower level of ambitions had a higher likelihood of eventually being achieved. Moreover, possible interaction effects on the association between level of ambition and the likelihood of success are also revealed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Neandertal admixture in Eurasia confirmed by maximum-likelihood analysis of three genomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohse, Konrad; Frantz, Laurent A F

    2014-04-01

    Although there has been much interest in estimating histories of divergence and admixture from genomic data, it has proved difficult to distinguish recent admixture from long-term structure in the ancestral population. Thus, recent genome-wide analyses based on summary statistics have sparked controversy about the possibility of interbreeding between Neandertals and modern humans in Eurasia. Here we derive the probability of full mutational configurations in nonrecombining sequence blocks under both admixture and ancestral structure scenarios. Dividing the genome into short blocks gives an efficient way to compute maximum-likelihood estimates of parameters. We apply this likelihood scheme to triplets of human and Neandertal genomes and compare the relative support for a model of admixture from Neandertals into Eurasian populations after their expansion out of Africa against a history of persistent structure in their common ancestral population in Africa. Our analysis allows us to conclusively reject a model of ancestral structure in Africa and instead reveals strong support for Neandertal admixture in Eurasia at a higher rate (3.4-7.3%) than suggested previously. Using analysis and simulations we show that our inference is more powerful than previous summary statistics and robust to realistic levels of recombination.

  6. On the insufficiency of arbitrarily precise covariance matrices: non-Gaussian weak-lensing likelihoods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellentin, Elena; Heavens, Alan F.

    2018-01-01

    We investigate whether a Gaussian likelihood, as routinely assumed in the analysis of cosmological data, is supported by simulated survey data. We define test statistics, based on a novel method that first destroys Gaussian correlations in a data set, and then measures the non-Gaussian correlations that remain. This procedure flags pairs of data points that depend on each other in a non-Gaussian fashion, and thereby identifies where the assumption of a Gaussian likelihood breaks down. Using this diagnosis, we find that non-Gaussian correlations in the CFHTLenS cosmic shear correlation functions are significant. With a simple exclusion of the most contaminated data points, the posterior for s8 is shifted without broadening, but we find no significant reduction in the tension with s8 derived from Planck cosmic microwave background data. However, we also show that the one-point distributions of the correlation statistics are noticeably skewed, such that sound weak-lensing data sets are intrinsically likely to lead to a systematically low lensing amplitude being inferred. The detected non-Gaussianities get larger with increasing angular scale such that for future wide-angle surveys such as Euclid or LSST, with their very small statistical errors, the large-scale modes are expected to be increasingly affected. The shifts in posteriors may then not be negligible and we recommend that these diagnostic tests be run as part of future analyses.

  7. Watching television for more than two hours increases the likelihood of reporting poor sleep quality among Brazilian schoolteachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Souza, Sara Carolina Scremin; Campanini, Marcela Zambrim; de Andrade, Selma Maffei; González, Alberto Durán; de Melo, Juliana Moura; Mesas, Arthur Eumann

    2017-10-01

    Although time spent watching television and sleep problems have increased in the last few decades, it is unclear whether these conditions are associated in working adults after controlling for lifestyle, job characteristics and other individual aspects. The present study analyzed the association between time spent watching television and sleep quality among teachers from public schools in Londrina, Brazil. In this cross-sectional study, information from the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI) and about time spent watching television was obtained during personal interviews. Logistic regression models adjusted by the main confounders (sociodemographic, occupational and lifestyle variables) were used in the analyses. Among the 959 studied teachers (68.2% women, median age: 42years), teachers who watched >120min/day had a higher likelihood of reporting poor sleep quality (PSQI>5) (odds ratio=1.41; 95% confidence interval=1.01; 1.98) compared with those who watched television for up to 60min/day, regardless of gender, age, work hours, leisure time physical activity and other lifestyle variables. This association did not remain significant after the adjustment for health conditions, i.e., obesity, anxiety, depression and chronic pain, which may act as confounding variables in the relationship between watching television and poor sleep quality. Watching television for >120min/day was independently associated with poorer sleep quality, which should be considered in the prevention and treatment of sleep disturbances among working population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofilatos, Athanasios

    2017-06-01

    The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  9. DarkBit. A GAMBIT module for computing dark matter observables and likelihoods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bringmann, Torsten; Dal, Lars A. [University of Oslo, Department of Physics, Oslo (Norway); Conrad, Jan; Edsjoe, Joakim; Farmer, Ben [AlbaNova University Centre, Oskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Stockholm University, Department of Physics, Stockholm (Sweden); Cornell, Jonathan M. [McGill University, Department of Physics, Montreal, QC (Canada); Kahlhoefer, Felix; Wild, Sebastian [DESY, Hamburg (Germany); Kvellestad, Anders; Savage, Christopher [NORDITA, Stockholm (Sweden); Putze, Antje [LAPTh, Universite de Savoie, CNRS, Annecy-le-Vieux (France); Scott, Pat [Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, Department of Physics, London (United Kingdom); Weniger, Christoph [University of Amsterdam, GRAPPA, Institute of Physics, Amsterdam (Netherlands); White, Martin [University of Adelaide, Department of Physics, Adelaide, SA (Australia); Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale, Parkville (Australia); Collaboration: The GAMBIT Dark Matter Workgroup

    2017-12-15

    We introduce DarkBit, an advanced software code for computing dark matter constraints on various extensions to the Standard Model of particle physics, comprising both new native code and interfaces to external packages. This release includes a dedicated signal yield calculator for gamma-ray observations, which significantly extends current tools by implementing a cascade-decay Monte Carlo, as well as a dedicated likelihood calculator for current and future experiments (gamLike). This provides a general solution for studying complex particle physics models that predict dark matter annihilation to a multitude of final states. We also supply a direct detection package that models a large range of direct detection experiments (DDCalc), and that provides the corresponding likelihoods for arbitrary combinations of spin-independent and spin-dependent scattering processes. Finally, we provide custom relic density routines along with interfaces to DarkSUSY, micrOMEGAs, and the neutrino telescope likelihood package nulike. DarkBit is written in the framework of the Global And Modular Beyond the Standard Model Inference Tool (GAMBIT), providing seamless integration into a comprehensive statistical fitting framework that allows users to explore new models with both particle and astrophysics constraints, and a consistent treatment of systematic uncertainties. In this paper we describe its main functionality, provide a guide to getting started quickly, and show illustrative examples for results obtained with DarkBit (both as a stand-alone tool and as a GAMBIT module). This includes a quantitative comparison between two of the main dark matter codes (DarkSUSY and micrOMEGAs), and application of DarkBit's advanced direct and indirect detection routines to a simple effective dark matter model. (orig.)

  10. Efficient simulation and likelihood methods for non-neutral multi-allele models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Paul; Genz, Alan; Buzbas, Erkan Ozge

    2012-06-01

    Throughout the 1980s, Simon Tavaré made numerous significant contributions to population genetics theory. As genetic data, in particular DNA sequence, became more readily available, a need to connect population-genetic models to data became the central issue. The seminal work of Griffiths and Tavaré (1994a , 1994b , 1994c) was among the first to develop a likelihood method to estimate the population-genetic parameters using full DNA sequences. Now, we are in the genomics era where methods need to scale-up to handle massive data sets, and Tavaré has led the way to new approaches. However, performing statistical inference under non-neutral models has proved elusive. In tribute to Simon Tavaré, we present an article in spirit of his work that provides a computationally tractable method for simulating and analyzing data under a class of non-neutral population-genetic models. Computational methods for approximating likelihood functions and generating samples under a class of allele-frequency based non-neutral parent-independent mutation models were proposed by Donnelly, Nordborg, and Joyce (DNJ) (Donnelly et al., 2001). DNJ (2001) simulated samples of allele frequencies from non-neutral models using neutral models as auxiliary distribution in a rejection algorithm. However, patterns of allele frequencies produced by neutral models are dissimilar to patterns of allele frequencies produced by non-neutral models, making the rejection method inefficient. For example, in some cases the methods in DNJ (2001) require 10(9) rejections before a sample from the non-neutral model is accepted. Our method simulates samples directly from the distribution of non-neutral models, making simulation methods a practical tool to study the behavior of the likelihood and to perform inference on the strength of selection.

  11. Penalized likelihood and multi-objective spatial scans for the detection and inference of irregular clusters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fonseca Carlos M

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Irregularly shaped spatial clusters are difficult to delineate. A cluster found by an algorithm often spreads through large portions of the map, impacting its geographical meaning. Penalized likelihood methods for Kulldorff's spatial scan statistics have been used to control the excessive freedom of the shape of clusters. Penalty functions based on cluster geometry and non-connectivity have been proposed recently. Another approach involves the use of a multi-objective algorithm to maximize two objectives: the spatial scan statistics and the geometric penalty function. Results & Discussion We present a novel scan statistic algorithm employing a function based on the graph topology to penalize the presence of under-populated disconnection nodes in candidate clusters, the disconnection nodes cohesion function. A disconnection node is defined as a region within a cluster, such that its removal disconnects the cluster. By applying this function, the most geographically meaningful clusters are sifted through the immense set of possible irregularly shaped candidate cluster solutions. To evaluate the statistical significance of solutions for multi-objective scans, a statistical approach based on the concept of attainment function is used. In this paper we compared different penalized likelihoods employing the geometric and non-connectivity regularity functions and the novel disconnection nodes cohesion function. We also build multi-objective scans using those three functions and compare them with the previous penalized likelihood scans. An application is presented using comprehensive state-wide data for Chagas' disease in puerperal women in Minas Gerais state, Brazil. Conclusions We show that, compared to the other single-objective algorithms, multi-objective scans present better performance, regarding power, sensitivity and positive predicted value. The multi-objective non-connectivity scan is faster and better suited for the

  12. Likelihood ratio model for classification of forensic evidence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zadora, G., E-mail: gzadora@ies.krakow.pl [Institute of Forensic Research, Westerplatte 9, 31-033 Krakow (Poland); Neocleous, T., E-mail: tereza@stats.gla.ac.uk [University of Glasgow, Department of Statistics, 15 University Gardens, Glasgow G12 8QW (United Kingdom)

    2009-05-29

    One of the problems of analysis of forensic evidence such as glass fragments, is the determination of their use-type category, e.g. does a glass fragment originate from an unknown window or container? Very small glass fragments arise during various accidents and criminal offences, and could be carried on the clothes, shoes and hair of participants. It is therefore necessary to obtain information on their physicochemical composition in order to solve the classification problem. Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with an Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer and the Glass Refractive Index Measurement method are routinely used in many forensic institutes for the investigation of glass. A natural form of glass evidence evaluation for forensic purposes is the likelihood ratio-LR = p(E|H{sub 1})/p(E|H{sub 2}). The main aim of this paper was to study the performance of LR models for glass object classification which considered one or two sources of data variability, i.e. between-glass-object variability and(or) within-glass-object variability. Within the proposed model a multivariate kernel density approach was adopted for modelling the between-object distribution and a multivariate normal distribution was adopted for modelling within-object distributions. Moreover, a graphical method of estimating the dependence structure was employed to reduce the highly multivariate problem to several lower-dimensional problems. The performed analysis showed that the best likelihood model was the one which allows to include information about between and within-object variability, and with variables derived from elemental compositions measured by SEM-EDX, and refractive values determined before (RI{sub b}) and after (RI{sub a}) the annealing process, in the form of dRI = log{sub 10}|RI{sub a} - RI{sub b}|. This model gave better results than the model with only between-object variability considered. In addition, when dRI and variables derived from elemental compositions were used, this

  13. Likelihood ratio model for classification of forensic evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zadora, G.; Neocleous, T.

    2009-01-01

    One of the problems of analysis of forensic evidence such as glass fragments, is the determination of their use-type category, e.g. does a glass fragment originate from an unknown window or container? Very small glass fragments arise during various accidents and criminal offences, and could be carried on the clothes, shoes and hair of participants. It is therefore necessary to obtain information on their physicochemical composition in order to solve the classification problem. Scanning Electron Microscopy coupled with an Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectrometer and the Glass Refractive Index Measurement method are routinely used in many forensic institutes for the investigation of glass. A natural form of glass evidence evaluation for forensic purposes is the likelihood ratio-LR = p(E|H 1 )/p(E|H 2 ). The main aim of this paper was to study the performance of LR models for glass object classification which considered one or two sources of data variability, i.e. between-glass-object variability and(or) within-glass-object variability. Within the proposed model a multivariate kernel density approach was adopted for modelling the between-object distribution and a multivariate normal distribution was adopted for modelling within-object distributions. Moreover, a graphical method of estimating the dependence structure was employed to reduce the highly multivariate problem to several lower-dimensional problems. The performed analysis showed that the best likelihood model was the one which allows to include information about between and within-object variability, and with variables derived from elemental compositions measured by SEM-EDX, and refractive values determined before (RI b ) and after (RI a ) the annealing process, in the form of dRI = log 10 |RI a - RI b |. This model gave better results than the model with only between-object variability considered. In addition, when dRI and variables derived from elemental compositions were used, this model outperformed two other

  14. A simulation study of likelihood inference procedures in rayleigh distribution with censored data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baklizi, S. A.; Baker, H. M.

    2001-01-01

    Inference procedures based on the likelihood function are considered for the one parameter Rayleigh distribution with type1 and type 2 censored data. Using simulation techniques, the finite sample performances of the maximum likelihood estimator and the large sample likelihood interval estimation procedures based on the Wald, the Rao, and the likelihood ratio statistics are investigated. It appears that the maximum likelihood estimator is unbiased. The approximate variance estimates obtained from the asymptotic normal distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator are accurate under type 2 censored data while they tend to be smaller than the actual variances when considering type1 censored data of small size. It appears also that interval estimation based on the Wald and Rao statistics need much more sample size than interval estimation based on the likelihood ratio statistic to attain reasonable accuracy. (authors). 15 refs., 4 tabs

  15. Gender and motor competence affects perceived likelihood and importance of physical activity outcomes among 14 year olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hands, B; Parker, H E; Rose, E; Larkin, D

    2016-03-01

    Perceptions of the effects of physical activity could facilitate or deter future participation. This study explored the differences between gender and motor competence at 14 years of age in the perceptions of likelihood and importance of physical activity outcomes. The sample comprised 1582 14-year-old adolescents (769 girls) from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study. Four motor competence groups were formed from a standardized Neuromuscular Developmental Index score (McCarron 1997). Perceptions of the likelihood and the importance of 15 physical activity outcomes were measured by a questionnaire developed for the NSW Schools Fitness and Physical Activity Survey (Booth et al. 1997). Gender (two) × motor competence (four) analyses of variance and Tukey post hoc were conducted on outcome scores (P importance of physical activity outcomes within competition, social friendships and injury domains. Motor competence was significant in the perceived likelihood of physical health (P importance was perceived for academic outcomes for 14 year olds categorized with low compared with high motor competence (P importance. Although level of motor competence at 14 years affected the perceived likelihood of health, social and fun outcomes from future participation in physical activity, adolescents highly valued these outcomes, whereas gender affected competition and winning, outcomes that were less valued. Physical activity that promotes these key and valued outcomes may encourage young people's ongoing involvement in physical activity, especially for those at risk of low participation. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frome, E.L; DuFrain, R.J.

    1983-10-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between the yield of dicentric chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The dicentric yields follow the Poisson distribution, and the expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose for low LET radiation. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been obtained by Kellerer and Rossi using the theory of dual radiation action. The yield of elementary lesions is kappa[γd + g(t, tau)d 2 ], where t is the time and d is dose. The coefficient of the d 2 term is determined by the recovery function and the temporal mode of irradiation. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described and illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure

  17. Ringing Artefact Reduction By An Efficient Likelihood Improvement Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuderer, Miha

    1989-10-01

    In MR imaging, the extent of the acquired spatial frequencies of the object is necessarily finite. The resulting image shows artefacts caused by "truncation" of its Fourier components. These are known as Gibbs artefacts or ringing artefacts. These artefacts are particularly. visible when the time-saving reduced acquisition method is used, say, when scanning only the lowest 70% of the 256 data lines. Filtering the data results in loss of resolution. A method is described that estimates the high frequency data from the low-frequency data lines, with the likelihood of the image as criterion. It is a computationally very efficient method, since it requires practically only two extra Fourier transforms, in addition to the normal. reconstruction. The results of this method on MR images of human subjects are promising. Evaluations on a 70% acquisition image show about 20% decrease of the error energy after processing. "Error energy" is defined as the total power of the difference to a 256-data-lines reference image. The elimination of ringing artefacts then appears almost complete..

  18. Maximum-likelihood estimation of recent shared ancestry (ERSA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huff, Chad D; Witherspoon, David J; Simonson, Tatum S; Xing, Jinchuan; Watkins, W Scott; Zhang, Yuhua; Tuohy, Therese M; Neklason, Deborah W; Burt, Randall W; Guthery, Stephen L; Woodward, Scott R; Jorde, Lynn B

    2011-05-01

    Accurate estimation of recent shared ancestry is important for genetics, evolution, medicine, conservation biology, and forensics. Established methods estimate kinship accurately for first-degree through third-degree relatives. We demonstrate that chromosomal segments shared by two individuals due to identity by descent (IBD) provide much additional information about shared ancestry. We developed a maximum-likelihood method for the estimation of recent shared ancestry (ERSA) from the number and lengths of IBD segments derived from high-density SNP or whole-genome sequence data. We used ERSA to estimate relationships from SNP genotypes in 169 individuals from three large, well-defined human pedigrees. ERSA is accurate to within one degree of relationship for 97% of first-degree through fifth-degree relatives and 80% of sixth-degree and seventh-degree relatives. We demonstrate that ERSA's statistical power approaches the maximum theoretical limit imposed by the fact that distant relatives frequently share no DNA through a common ancestor. ERSA greatly expands the range of relationships that can be estimated from genetic data and is implemented in a freely available software package.

  19. Affective mapping: An activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirby, Lauren A J; Robinson, Jennifer L

    2017-11-01

    Functional neuroimaging has the spatial resolution to explain the neural basis of emotions. Activation likelihood estimation (ALE), as opposed to traditional qualitative meta-analysis, quantifies convergence of activation across studies within affective categories. Others have used ALE to investigate a broad range of emotions, but without the convenience of the BrainMap database. We used the BrainMap database and analysis resources to run separate meta-analyses on coordinates reported for anger, anxiety, disgust, fear, happiness, humor, and sadness. Resultant ALE maps were compared to determine areas of convergence between emotions, as well as to identify affect-specific networks. Five out of the seven emotions demonstrated consistent activation within the amygdala, whereas all emotions consistently activated the right inferior frontal gyrus, which has been implicated as an integration hub for affective and cognitive processes. These data provide the framework for models of affect-specific networks, as well as emotional processing hubs, which can be used for future studies of functional or effective connectivity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Dark matter CMB constraints and likelihoods for poor particle physicists

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cline, James M.; Scott, Pat, E-mail: jcline@physics.mcgill.ca, E-mail: patscott@physics.mcgill.ca [Department of Physics, McGill University, 3600 rue University, Montréal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2013-03-01

    The cosmic microwave background provides constraints on the annihilation and decay of light dark matter at redshifts between 100 and 1000, the strength of which depends upon the fraction of energy ending up in the form of electrons and photons. The resulting constraints are usually presented for a limited selection of annihilation and decay channels. Here we provide constraints on the annihilation cross section and decay rate, at discrete values of the dark matter mass m{sub χ}, for all the annihilation and decay channels whose secondary spectra have been computed using PYTHIA in arXiv:1012.4515 (''PPPC 4 DM ID: a poor particle physicist cookbook for dark matter indirect detection''), namely e, μ, τ, V → e, V → μ, V → τ, u, d s, c, b, t, γ, g, W, Z and h. By interpolating in mass, these can be used to find the CMB constraints and likelihood functions from WMAP7 and Planck for a wide range of dark matter models, including those with annihilation or decay into a linear combination of different channels.

  1. Dark matter CMB constraints and likelihoods for poor particle physicists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cline, James M.; Scott, Pat

    2013-01-01

    The cosmic microwave background provides constraints on the annihilation and decay of light dark matter at redshifts between 100 and 1000, the strength of which depends upon the fraction of energy ending up in the form of electrons and photons. The resulting constraints are usually presented for a limited selection of annihilation and decay channels. Here we provide constraints on the annihilation cross section and decay rate, at discrete values of the dark matter mass m χ , for all the annihilation and decay channels whose secondary spectra have been computed using PYTHIA in arXiv:1012.4515 (''PPPC 4 DM ID: a poor particle physicist cookbook for dark matter indirect detection''), namely e, μ, τ, V → e, V → μ, V → τ, u, d s, c, b, t, γ, g, W, Z and h. By interpolating in mass, these can be used to find the CMB constraints and likelihood functions from WMAP7 and Planck for a wide range of dark matter models, including those with annihilation or decay into a linear combination of different channels

  2. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frome, E.L.; DuFrain, R.J.

    1986-01-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The lymphocytes are exposed to low-LET radiation, and the resulting dicentric chromosome aberrations follow the Poisson distribution. The expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been presented by Kellerer and Rossi (1972, Current Topics on Radiation Research Quarterly 8, 85-158; 1978, Radiation Research 75, 471-488) using the theory of dual radiation action. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting dose-time-response models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general-purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described, and estimation for the nonlinear models is illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure

  3. Physical activity may decrease the likelihood of children developing constipation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidenfaden, Sandra; Ormarsson, Orri Thor; Lund, Sigrun H; Bjornsson, Einar S

    2018-01-01

    Childhood constipation is common. We evaluated children diagnosed with constipation, who were referred to an Icelandic paediatric emergency department, and determined the effect of lifestyle factors on its aetiology. The parents of children who were diagnosed with constipation and participated in a phase IIB clinical trial on laxative suppositories answered an online questionnaire about their children's lifestyle and constipation in March-April 2013. The parents of nonconstipated children that visited the paediatric department of Landspitali University Hospital or an Icelandic outpatient clinic answered the same questionnaire. We analysed responses regarding 190 children aged one year to 18 years: 60 with constipation and 130 without. We found that 40% of the constipated children had recurrent symptoms, 27% had to seek medical attention more than once and 33% received medication per rectum. The 47 of 130 control group subjects aged 10-18 were much more likely to exercise more than three times a week (72%) and for more than a hour (62%) than the 26 of 60 constipated children of the same age (42% and 35%, respectively). Constipation risk factors varied with age and many children diagnosed with constipation had recurrent symptoms. Physical activity may affect the likelihood of developing constipation in older children. ©2017 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Maximum likelihood pedigree reconstruction using integer linear programming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cussens, James; Bartlett, Mark; Jones, Elinor M; Sheehan, Nuala A

    2013-01-01

    Large population biobanks of unrelated individuals have been highly successful in detecting common genetic variants affecting diseases of public health concern. However, they lack the statistical power to detect more modest gene-gene and gene-environment interaction effects or the effects of rare variants for which related individuals are ideally required. In reality, most large population studies will undoubtedly contain sets of undeclared relatives, or pedigrees. Although a crude measure of relatedness might sometimes suffice, having a good estimate of the true pedigree would be much more informative if this could be obtained efficiently. Relatives are more likely to share longer haplotypes around disease susceptibility loci and are hence biologically more informative for rare variants than unrelated cases and controls. Distant relatives are arguably more useful for detecting variants with small effects because they are less likely to share masking environmental effects. Moreover, the identification of relatives enables appropriate adjustments of statistical analyses that typically assume unrelatedness. We propose to exploit an integer linear programming optimisation approach to pedigree learning, which is adapted to find valid pedigrees by imposing appropriate constraints. Our method is not restricted to small pedigrees and is guaranteed to return a maximum likelihood pedigree. With additional constraints, we can also search for multiple high-probability pedigrees and thus account for the inherent uncertainty in any particular pedigree reconstruction. The true pedigree is found very quickly by comparison with other methods when all individuals are observed. Extensions to more complex problems seem feasible. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Race of source effects in the elaboration likelihood model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, P H; Harkins, S G

    1994-11-01

    In a series of experiments, we investigated the effect of race of source on persuasive communications in the Elaboration Likelihood Model (R.E. Petty & J.T. Cacioppo, 1981, 1986). In Experiment 1, we found no evidence that White participants responded to a Black source as a simple negative cue. Experiment 2 suggested the possibility that exposure to a Black source led to low-involvement message processing. In Experiments 3 and 4, a distraction paradigm was used to test this possibility, and it was found that participants under low involvement were highly motivated to process a message presented by a Black source. In Experiment 5, we found that attitudes toward the source's ethnic group, rather than violations of expectancies, accounted for this processing effect. Taken together, the results of these experiments are consistent with S.L. Gaertner and J.F. Dovidio's (1986) theory of aversive racism, which suggests that Whites, because of a combination of egalitarian values and underlying negative racial attitudes, are very concerned about not appearing unfavorable toward Blacks, leading them to be highly motivated to process messages presented by a source from this group.

  6. Maximum likelihood estimation for cytogenetic dose-response curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frome, E.L; DuFrain, R.J.

    1983-10-01

    In vitro dose-response curves are used to describe the relation between the yield of dicentric chromosome aberrations and radiation dose for human lymphocytes. The dicentric yields follow the Poisson distribution, and the expected yield depends on both the magnitude and the temporal distribution of the dose for low LET radiation. A general dose-response model that describes this relation has been obtained by Kellerer and Rossi using the theory of dual radiation action. The yield of elementary lesions is kappa(..gamma..d + g(t, tau)d/sup 2/), where t is the time and d is dose. The coefficient of the d/sup 2/ term is determined by the recovery function and the temporal mode of irradiation. Two special cases of practical interest are split-dose and continuous exposure experiments, and the resulting models are intrinsically nonlinear in the parameters. A general purpose maximum likelihood estimation procedure is described and illustrated with numerical examples from both experimental designs. Poisson regression analysis is used for estimation, hypothesis testing, and regression diagnostics. Results are discussed in the context of exposure assessment procedures for both acute and chronic human radiation exposure.

  7. Maximum likelihood approach for several stochastic volatility models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camprodon, Jordi; Perelló, Josep

    2012-01-01

    Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it being one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility follow a two-dimensional diffusion process where volatility is the stochastic diffusion coefficient of the log-price dynamics. We apply this method to the simplest versions of the expOU, the OU and the Heston stochastic volatility models and we study their performance in terms of the log-price probability, the volatility probability, and its Mean First-Passage Time. The approach has some predictive power on the future returns amplitude by only knowing the current volatility. The assumed models do not consider long-range volatility autocorrelation and the asymmetric return-volatility cross-correlation but the method still yields very naturally these two important stylized facts. We apply the method to different market indices and with a good performance in all cases. (paper)

  8. A Sum-of-Squares and Semidefinite Programming Approach for Maximum Likelihood DOA Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Cai

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Direction of arrival (DOA estimation using a uniform linear array (ULA is a classical problem in array signal processing. In this paper, we focus on DOA estimation based on the maximum likelihood (ML criterion, transform the estimation problem into a novel formulation, named as sum-of-squares (SOS, and then solve it using semidefinite programming (SDP. We first derive the SOS and SDP method for DOA estimation in the scenario of a single source and then extend it under the framework of alternating projection for multiple DOA estimation. The simulations demonstrate that the SOS- and SDP-based algorithms can provide stable and accurate DOA estimation when the number of snapshots is small and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR is low. Moveover, it has a higher spatial resolution compared to existing methods based on the ML criterion.

  9. Gender and Relationship Status Interaction and Likelihood of Return to Work Post-Retirement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Settels, Jason; McMullin, Julie

    2017-09-01

    Population aging is an issue of mounting importance throughout the industrialized world. Concerns over labour force shortages have led to policies that prolong working life. Accordingly, present-day workforce participation patterns of older individuals are extensively varied. This study utilized the 2007 General Social Survey to examine factors associated with post-retirement paid work, focusing on the interaction between gender and relationship status, among Canadians aged 50 to 74 who had retired at least once. We find that although being in a relationship is associated with a higher likelihood of post-retirement work for men, the opposite is true for women. Our findings suggest that the gendered association between relationship status and post-retirement work results partly from the gendered associations between relationship status and one's motivation for learning and community involvement, career orientation, and sense of independence. Gendered meanings of relationship status are thus revealed through analysis of post-retirement work.

  10. Maximum Likelihood PSD Estimation for Speech Enhancement in Reverberation and Noise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuklasinski, Adam; Doclo, Simon; Jensen, Søren Holdt

    2016-01-01

    In this contribution we focus on the problem of power spectral density (PSD) estimation from multiple microphone signals in reverberant and noisy environments. The PSD estimation method proposed in this paper is based on the maximum likelihood (ML) methodology. In particular, we derive a novel ML...... instrumental measures and is shown to be higher than when the competing estimator is used. Moreover, we perform a speech intelligibility test where we demonstrate that both the proposed and the competing PSD estimators lead to similar intelligibility improvements......., it is shown numerically that the mean squared estimation error achieved by the proposed method is near the limit set by the corresponding Cram´er-Rao lower bound. The speech dereverberation performance of a multi-channel Wiener filter (MWF) based on the proposed PSD estimators is measured using several...

  11. Targeted search for continuous gravitational waves: Bayesian versus maximum-likelihood statistics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prix, Reinhard; Krishnan, Badri

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the Bayesian framework for detection of continuous gravitational waves (GWs) in the context of targeted searches, where the phase evolution of the GW signal is assumed to be known, while the four amplitude parameters are unknown. We show that the orthodox maximum-likelihood statistic (known as F-statistic) can be rediscovered as a Bayes factor with an unphysical prior in amplitude parameter space. We introduce an alternative detection statistic ('B-statistic') using the Bayes factor with a more natural amplitude prior, namely an isotropic probability distribution for the orientation of GW sources. Monte Carlo simulations of targeted searches show that the resulting Bayesian B-statistic is more powerful in the Neyman-Pearson sense (i.e., has a higher expected detection probability at equal false-alarm probability) than the frequentist F-statistic.

  12. Brief Communication: Likelihood of societal preparedness for global change: trend detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Vogel

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic influences on earth system processes are now pervasive, resulting in trends in river discharge, pollution levels, ocean levels, precipitation, temperature, wind, landslides, bird and plant populations and a myriad of other important natural hazards relating to earth system state variables. Thousands of trend detection studies have been published which report the statistical significance of observed trends. Unfortunately, such studies only concentrate on the null hypothesis of "no trend". Little or no attention is given to the power of such statistical trend tests, which would quantify the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. The probability of missing the trend, if it exists, known as the type II error, informs us about the likelihood of whether or not society is prepared to accommodate and respond to such trends. We describe how the power or probability of detecting a trend if it exists, depends critically on our ability to develop improved multivariate deterministic and statistical methods for predicting future trends in earth system processes. Several other research and policy implications for improving our understanding of trend detection and our societal response to those trends are discussed.

  13. Observation Likelihood Model Design and Failure Recovery Scheme toward Reliable Localization of Mobile Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-bae Moon

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there have been many researches on mobile robot localization, it is still difficult to obtain reliable localization performance in a human co-existing real environment. Reliability of localization is highly dependent upon developer's experiences because uncertainty is caused by a variety of reasons. We have developed a range sensor based integrated localization scheme for various indoor service robots. Through the experience, we found out that there are several significant experimental issues. In this paper, we provide useful solutions for following questions which are frequently faced with in practical applications: 1 How to design an observation likelihood model? 2 How to detect the localization failure? 3 How to recover from the localization failure? We present design guidelines of observation likelihood model. Localization failure detection and recovery schemes are presented by focusing on abrupt wheel slippage. Experiments were carried out in a typical office building environment. The proposed scheme to identify the localizer status is useful in practical environments. Moreover, the semi-global localization is a computationally efficient recovery scheme from localization failure. The results of experiments and analysis clearly present the usefulness of proposed solutions.

  14. Observation Likelihood Model Design and Failure Recovery Scheme Toward Reliable Localization of Mobile Robots

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang-bae Moon

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Although there have been many researches on mobile robot localization, it is still difficult to obtain reliable localization performance in a human co-existing real environment. Reliability of localization is highly dependent upon developer's experiences because uncertainty is caused by a variety of reasons. We have developed a range sensor based integrated localization scheme for various indoor service robots. Through the experience, we found out that there are several significant experimental issues. In this paper, we provide useful solutions for following questions which are frequently faced with in practical applications: 1 How to design an observation likelihood model? 2 How to detect the localization failure? 3 How to recover from the localization failure? We present design guidelines of observation likelihood model. Localization failure detection and recovery schemes are presented by focusing on abrupt wheel slippage. Experiments were carried out in a typical office building environment. The proposed scheme to identify the localizer status is useful in practical environments. Moreover, the semi-global localization is a computationally efficient recovery scheme from localization failure. The results of experiments and analysis clearly present the usefulness of proposed solutions.

  15. Extending the Applicability of the Generalized Likelihood Function for Zero-Inflated Data Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Debora Y.; Chaffe, Pedro L. B.; Sá, João. H. M.

    2018-03-01

    Proper uncertainty estimation for data series with a high proportion of zero and near zero observations has been a challenge in hydrologic studies. This technical note proposes a modification to the Generalized Likelihood function that accounts for zero inflation of the error distribution (ZI-GL). We compare the performance of the proposed ZI-GL with the original Generalized Likelihood function using the entire data series (GL) and by simply suppressing zero observations (GLy>0). These approaches were applied to two interception modeling examples characterized by data series with a significant number of zeros. The ZI-GL produced better uncertainty ranges than the GL as measured by the precision, reliability and volumetric bias metrics. The comparison between ZI-GL and GLy>0 highlights the need for further improvement in the treatment of residuals from near zero simulations when a linear heteroscedastic error model is considered. Aside from the interception modeling examples illustrated herein, the proposed ZI-GL may be useful for other hydrologic studies, such as for the modeling of the runoff generation in hillslopes and ephemeral catchments.

  16. Estimating likelihood of future crashes for crash-prone drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subasish Das

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available At-fault crash-prone drivers are usually considered as the high risk group for possible future incidents or crashes. In Louisiana, 34% of crashes are repeatedly committed by the at-fault crash-prone drivers who represent only 5% of the total licensed drivers in the state. This research has conducted an exploratory data analysis based on the driver faultiness and proneness. The objective of this study is to develop a crash prediction model to estimate the likelihood of future crashes for the at-fault drivers. The logistic regression method is used by employing eight years' traffic crash data (2004–2011 in Louisiana. Crash predictors such as the driver's crash involvement, crash and road characteristics, human factors, collision type, and environmental factors are considered in the model. The at-fault and not-at-fault status of the crashes are used as the response variable. The developed model has identified a few important variables, and is used to correctly classify at-fault crashes up to 62.40% with a specificity of 77.25%. This model can identify as many as 62.40% of the crash incidence of at-fault drivers in the upcoming year. Traffic agencies can use the model for monitoring the performance of an at-fault crash-prone drivers and making roadway improvements meant to reduce crash proneness. From the findings, it is recommended that crash-prone drivers should be targeted for special safety programs regularly through education and regulations.

  17. Obstetric History and Likelihood of Preterm Birth of Twins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easter, Sarah Rae; Little, Sarah E; Robinson, Julian N; Mendez-Figueroa, Hector; Chauhan, Suneet P

    2018-01-05

     The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between preterm birth in a prior pregnancy and preterm birth in a twin pregnancy.  We performed a secondary analysis of a randomized controlled trial evaluating 17-α-hydroxyprogesterone caproate in twins. Women were classified as nulliparous, multiparous with a prior term birth, or multiparous with a prior preterm birth. We used logistic regression to examine the odds of spontaneous preterm birth of twins before 35 weeks according to past obstetric history.  Of the 653 women analyzed, 294 were nulliparas, 310 had a prior term birth, and 49 had a prior preterm birth. Prior preterm birth increased the likelihood of spontaneous delivery before 35 weeks (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 2.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-4.66), whereas prior term delivery decreased these odds (aOR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.38-0.78) in the current twin pregnancy compared with the nulliparous reference group. This translated into a lower odds of composite neonatal morbidity (aOR: 0.38, 95% CI: 0.27-0.53) for women with a prior term delivery.  For women carrying twins, a history of preterm birth increases the odds of spontaneous preterm birth, whereas a prior term birth decreases odds of spontaneous preterm birth and neonatal morbidity for the current twin pregnancy. These results offer risk stratification and reassurance for clinicians. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  18. Likelihood of Unemployed Smokers vs Nonsmokers Attaining Reemployment in a One-Year Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prochaska, Judith J; Michalek, Anne K; Brown-Johnson, Catherine; Daza, Eric J; Baiocchi, Michael; Anzai, Nicole; Rogers, Amy; Grigg, Mia; Chieng, Amy

    2016-05-01

    , stable housing, reliable transportation, criminal history, and prior treatment for alcohol or drug use (25.3% of observations trimmed) reduced the difference in employment attributed to smoking status to 24% (95% CI, 7%-39%), which was still a significant difference. Among those reemployed at 1 year, the average hourly wage for smokers was significantly lower (mean [SD], $15.10 [$4.68]) than for nonsmokers (mean [SD], $20.27 [$10.54]; F(1,86) = 6.50, P = .01). To our knowledge, this is the first study to prospectively track reemployment success by smoking status. Smokers had a lower likelihood of reemployment at 1 year and were paid significantly less than nonsmokers when reemployed. Treatment of tobacco use in unemployment service settings is worth testing for increasing reemployment success and financial well-being.

  19. High-order Composite Likelihood Inference for Max-Stable Distributions and Processes

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

    2015-01-01

    In multivariate or spatial extremes, inference for max-stable processes observed at a large collection of locations is a very challenging problem in computational statistics, and current approaches typically rely on less expensive composite likelihoods constructed from small subsets of data. In this work, we explore the limits of modern state-of-the-art computational facilities to perform full likelihood inference and to efficiently evaluate high-order composite likelihoods. With extensive simulations, we assess the loss of information of composite likelihood estimators with respect to a full likelihood approach for some widely-used multivariate or spatial extreme models, we discuss how to choose composite likelihood truncation to improve the efficiency, and we also provide recommendations for practitioners. This article has supplementary material online.

  20. High-order Composite Likelihood Inference for Max-Stable Distributions and Processes

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano

    2015-09-29

    In multivariate or spatial extremes, inference for max-stable processes observed at a large collection of locations is a very challenging problem in computational statistics, and current approaches typically rely on less expensive composite likelihoods constructed from small subsets of data. In this work, we explore the limits of modern state-of-the-art computational facilities to perform full likelihood inference and to efficiently evaluate high-order composite likelihoods. With extensive simulations, we assess the loss of information of composite likelihood estimators with respect to a full likelihood approach for some widely-used multivariate or spatial extreme models, we discuss how to choose composite likelihood truncation to improve the efficiency, and we also provide recommendations for practitioners. This article has supplementary material online.

  1. Supplementary Material for: High-Order Composite Likelihood Inference for Max-Stable Distributions and Processes

    KAUST Repository

    Castruccio, Stefano; Huser, Raphaë l; Genton, Marc G.

    2016-01-01

    In multivariate or spatial extremes, inference for max-stable processes observed at a large collection of points is a very challenging problem and current approaches typically rely on less expensive composite likelihoods constructed from small subsets of data. In this work, we explore the limits of modern state-of-the-art computational facilities to perform full likelihood inference and to efficiently evaluate high-order composite likelihoods. With extensive simulations, we assess the loss of information of composite likelihood estimators with respect to a full likelihood approach for some widely used multivariate or spatial extreme models, we discuss how to choose composite likelihood truncation to improve the efficiency, and we also provide recommendations for practitioners. This article has supplementary material online.

  2. Tectono-sedimentary controls on the likelihood of gas hydrate occurrence near Taiwan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDonnell, S.L.; Cherkis, N.Z.; Czarnecki, M.F. [Naval Research Lab., Washington, DC (United States); Max, M.D. [MDS Research, Washington, DC (United States)

    2000-09-01

    Marine sediments on the continental slope of the NE South China Sea have appropriate thickness, methane-generating potential, and occur in a suitable pressure-temperature regime to host gas hydrate. Evidence for gas hydrate, the bottom simulating reflector (BSR), is observed to the south of Taiwan on reflection seismic records, and can be used to suggest that gas hydrates are widely distributed. The tectono-sedimentary framework south of Taiwan bears directly upon methane generation and the likelihood of the presence of significant gas hydrate deposits. Three zones of probable hydrate occurrence have been delineated along the margins of the NE South China Sea: (1) in a thick accumulation of sediment along the northern passive margin; (2) along a more thinly sedimented eastern active collisional margin, and especially; (3) in a zone of thick originally passive margin sedimentation into which the collisional margin has encroached obliquely. (author)

  3. A new maximum likelihood blood velocity estimator incorporating spatial and temporal correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schlaikjer, Malene; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt

    2001-01-01

    and space. This paper presents a new estimator (STC-MLE), which incorporates the correlation property. It is an expansion of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) developed by Ferrara et al. With the MLE a cross-correlation analysis between consecutive RF-lines on complex form is carried out for a range...... of possible velocities. In the new estimator an additional similarity investigation for each evaluated velocity and the available velocity estimates in a temporal (between frames) and spatial (within frames) neighborhood is performed. An a priori probability density term in the distribution...... of the observations gives a probability measure of the correlation between the velocities. Both the MLE and the STC-MLE have been evaluated on simulated and in-vivo RF-data obtained from the carotid artery. Using the MLE 4.1% of the estimates deviate significantly from the true velocities, when the performance...

  4. A 3D approximate maximum likelihood solver for localization of fish implanted with acoustic transmitters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xinya; Deng, Z. Daniel; Sun, Yannan; Martinez, Jayson J.; Fu, Tao; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Carlson, Thomas J.

    2014-11-01

    Better understanding of fish behavior is vital for recovery of many endangered species including salmon. The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed to observe the out-migratory behavior of juvenile salmonids tagged by surgical implantation of acoustic micro-transmitters and to estimate the survival when passing through dams on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. A robust three-dimensional solver was needed to accurately and efficiently estimate the time sequence of locations of fish tagged with JSATS acoustic transmitters, to describe in sufficient detail the information needed to assess the function of dam-passage design alternatives. An approximate maximum likelihood solver was developed using measurements of time difference of arrival from all hydrophones in receiving arrays on which a transmission was detected. Field experiments demonstrated that the developed solver performed significantly better in tracking efficiency and accuracy than other solvers described in the literature.

  5. Supervised maximum-likelihood weighting of composite protein networks for complex prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Chern Han

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Protein complexes participate in many important cellular functions, so finding the set of existent complexes is essential for understanding the organization and regulation of processes in the cell. With the availability of large amounts of high-throughput protein-protein interaction (PPI data, many algorithms have been proposed to discover protein complexes from PPI networks. However, such approaches are hindered by the high rate of noise in high-throughput PPI data, including spurious and missing interactions. Furthermore, many transient interactions are detected between proteins that are not from the same complex, while not all proteins from the same complex may actually interact. As a result, predicted complexes often do not match true complexes well, and many true complexes go undetected. Results We address these challenges by integrating PPI data with other heterogeneous data sources to construct a composite protein network, and using a supervised maximum-likelihood approach to weight each edge based on its posterior probability of belonging to a complex. We then use six different clustering algorithms, and an aggregative clustering strategy, to discover complexes in the weighted network. We test our method on Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Homo sapiens, and show that complex discovery is improved: compared to previously proposed supervised and unsupervised weighting approaches, our method recalls more known complexes, achieves higher precision at all recall levels, and generates novel complexes of greater functional similarity. Furthermore, our maximum-likelihood approach allows learned parameters to be used to visualize and evaluate the evidence of novel predictions, aiding human judgment of their credibility. Conclusions Our approach integrates multiple data sources with supervised learning to create a weighted composite protein network, and uses six clustering algorithms with an aggregative clustering strategy to

  6. Likelihood ratio meta-analysis: New motivation and approach for an old method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dormuth, Colin R; Filion, Kristian B; Platt, Robert W

    2016-03-01

    A 95% confidence interval (CI) in an updated meta-analysis may not have the expected 95% coverage. If a meta-analysis is simply updated with additional data, then the resulting 95% CI will be wrong because it will not have accounted for the fact that the earlier meta-analysis failed or succeeded to exclude the null. This situation can be avoided by using the likelihood ratio (LR) as a measure of evidence that does not depend on type-1 error. We show how an LR-based approach, first advanced by Goodman, can be used in a meta-analysis to pool data from separate studies to quantitatively assess where the total evidence points. The method works by estimating the log-likelihood ratio (LogLR) function from each study. Those functions are then summed to obtain a combined function, which is then used to retrieve the total effect estimate, and a corresponding 'intrinsic' confidence interval. Using as illustrations the CAPRIE trial of clopidogrel versus aspirin in the prevention of ischemic events, and our own meta-analysis of higher potency statins and the risk of acute kidney injury, we show that the LR-based method yields the same point estimate as the traditional analysis, but with an intrinsic confidence interval that is appropriately wider than the traditional 95% CI. The LR-based method can be used to conduct both fixed effect and random effects meta-analyses, it can be applied to old and new meta-analyses alike, and results can be presented in a format that is familiar to a meta-analytic audience. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Predictors of Likelihood of Speaking Up about Safety Concerns in Labour and Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyndon, Audrey; Sexton, J. Bryan; Simpson, Kathleen Rice; Rosenstein, Alan; Lee, Kathryn A.; Wachter, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    Background Despite widespread emphasis on promoting “assertive communication” by caregivers as essential to patient safety improvement efforts, fairly little is known about when and how clinicians speak up to address safety concerns. In this cross-sectional study we use a new measure of speaking up to begin exploring this issue in maternity care. Methods We developed a scenario-based measure of clinician’s assessment of potential harm and likelihood of speaking up in response to perceived harm. We embedded this scale in a survey with measures of safety climate, teamwork climate, disruptive behaviour, work stress, and personality traits of bravery and assertiveness. The survey was distributed to all registered nurses and obstetricians practicing in two US Labour & Delivery units. Results The response rate was 54% (125 of 230 potential respondents). Respondents were experienced clinicians (13.7 ± 11 years in specialty). Higher perception of harm, respondent role, specialty experience, and site predicted likelihood of speaking up when controlling for bravery and assertiveness. Physicians rated potential harm in common clinical scenarios lower than nurses did (7.5 vs. 8.4 on 2–10 scale; p<0.001). Some participants (12%) indicated they were unlikely to speak up despite perceiving high potential for harm in certain situations. Discussion This exploratory study found nurses and physicians differed in their harm ratings, and harm rating was a predictor of speaking up. This may partially explain persistent discrepancies between physicians and nurses in teamwork climate scores. Differing assessments of potential harms inherent in everyday practice may be a target for teamwork intervention in maternity care. PMID:22927492

  8. Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference With Examples in R, SAS and ADMB

    CERN Document Server

    Millar, Russell B

    2011-01-01

    This book takes a fresh look at the popular and well-established method of maximum likelihood for statistical estimation and inference. It begins with an intuitive introduction to the concepts and background of likelihood, and moves through to the latest developments in maximum likelihood methodology, including general latent variable models and new material for the practical implementation of integrated likelihood using the free ADMB software. Fundamental issues of statistical inference are also examined, with a presentation of some of the philosophical debates underlying the choice of statis

  9. Beyond Sex: Likelihood and Predictors of Effective and Ineffective Intervention in Intimate Partner Violence in Bystanders Perceiving an Emergency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chabot, Heather Frasier; Gray, Melissa L; Makande, Tariro B; Hoyt, Robert L

    2016-01-06

    Within the framework of the bystander model of intervention, we examined specific correlates and the likelihood of effective and ineffective intervention strategies of bystanders to an instance of intimate partner violence (IPV) identified as an emergency. We measured psychological variables associated with general prosocial behavior (including sex, instrumentality, expressiveness, empathy, personal distress, dispositional anger, and perceived barriers) as influential predictors in four IPV intervention behaviors (i.e., calling 911, talking to the victim, talking to the perpetrator, and physically interacting with the perpetrator). One hundred seventeen college community members completed preintervention measures, watched a film clip of IPV which they identified as an emergency, reported their likelihood of becoming involved and utilizing intervention behaviors, and identified perceived barriers to intervention. Participants were more likely to indicate using effective over ineffective intervention tactics. Lower perceived barriers to intervention predicted greater intervention likelihood. Hierarchical regression indicated that men and individuals higher in anger and instrumental traits were more likely to report that they would engage in riskier ineffective forms of intervention. Implications regarding bystander training and associations to intervention in related forms of violence including sexual assault are discussed. © The Author(s) 2016.

  10. Likelihood ratio-based differentiation of nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma in patients with sonographically evident diffuse hashimoto thyroiditis: preliminary study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Liang; Xia, Yu; Jiang, Yu-Xin; Dai, Qing; Li, Xiao-Yi

    2012-11-01

    To assess the efficacy of sonography for discriminating nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis from papillary thyroid carcinoma in patients with sonographically evident diffuse Hashimoto thyroiditis. This study included 20 patients with 24 surgically confirmed Hashimoto thyroiditis nodules and 40 patients with 40 papillary thyroid carcinoma nodules; all had sonographically evident diffuse Hashimoto thyroiditis. A retrospective review of the sonograms was performed, and significant benign and malignant sonographic features were selected by univariate and multivariate analyses. The combined likelihood ratio was calculated as the product of each feature's likelihood ratio for papillary thyroid carcinoma. We compared the abilities of the original sonographic features and combined likelihood ratios in diagnosing nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma by their sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index. The diagnostic capabilities of the sonographic features varied greatly, with Youden indices ranging from 0.175 to 0.700. Compared with single features, combinations of features were unable to improve the Youden indices effectively because the sensitivity and specificity usually changed in opposite directions. For combined likelihood ratios, however, the sensitivity improved greatly without an obvious reduction in specificity, which resulted in the maximum Youden index (0.825). With a combined likelihood ratio greater than 7.00 as the diagnostic criterion for papillary thyroid carcinoma, sensitivity reached 82.5%, whereas specificity remained at 100.0%. With a combined likelihood ratio less than 1.00 for nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis, sensitivity and specificity were 90.0% and 92.5%, respectively. Several sonographic features of nodular Hashimoto thyroiditis and papillary thyroid carcinoma in a background of diffuse Hashimoto thyroiditis were significantly different. The combined likelihood ratio may be superior to original sonographic features for

  11. An Accurate Method for Inferring Relatedness in Large Datasets of Unphased Genotypes via an Embedded Likelihood-Ratio Test

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez, Jesse M.

    2013-01-01

    Studies that map disease genes rely on accurate annotations that indicate whether individuals in the studied cohorts are related to each other or not. For example, in genome-wide association studies, the cohort members are assumed to be unrelated to one another. Investigators can correct for individuals in a cohort with previously-unknown shared familial descent by detecting genomic segments that are shared between them, which are considered to be identical by descent (IBD). Alternatively, elevated frequencies of IBD segments near a particular locus among affected individuals can be indicative of a disease-associated gene. As genotyping studies grow to use increasingly large sample sizes and meta-analyses begin to include many data sets, accurate and efficient detection of hidden relatedness becomes a challenge. To enable disease-mapping studies of increasingly large cohorts, a fast and accurate method to detect IBD segments is required. We present PARENTE, a novel method for detecting related pairs of individuals and shared haplotypic segments within these pairs. PARENTE is a computationally-efficient method based on an embedded likelihood ratio test. As demonstrated by the results of our simulations, our method exhibits better accuracy than the current state of the art, and can be used for the analysis of large genotyped cohorts. PARENTE\\'s higher accuracy becomes even more significant in more challenging scenarios, such as detecting shorter IBD segments or when an extremely low false-positive rate is required. PARENTE is publicly and freely available at http://parente.stanford.edu/. © 2013 Springer-Verlag.

  12. Risk calculations for energy conservation technologies: the likelihood of realizing design-phase expectations in new construction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greden, Lara; Vaidya, Prasad; Baker, Chris; Eijadi, David; McDougall, Tom [The Weidt Group (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The risk that a technology will not be implemented or operated as designed is a significant barrier that impedes owners from adopting new energy-conserving building technologies. This results in a feedback loop that encourages decision makers to minimize risk by sticking with the status quo, regardless of the environmental impact. Different technology categories have different levels and types of risks associated with them.This study assigns levels of risk to technologies by tracing a set of envelope systems, lighting designs, lighting controls, HVAC systems, and HVAC controls in a data set of 38 buildings from the design phase through the initial implementation phase. The likelihood that a technology gets implemented and works as expected is assessed, and risk factors for the various technologies are calculated. Explanations for the levels of risk are supported by interviews with third-party reviewers who serve to assist design teams and owners through the construction phase. Results show that daylighting technologies, including dimming daylighting controls, have the highest risk of not being implemented - when otherwise chosen at the selection phase - while roof insulation and lighting designs are most likely to be fully and correctly implemented. Analysis comparing the risk to the energy conservation opportunity indicates the need for prioritization and support during the design and construction phases to realize expected levels of energy conservation. Overall, the interviewees said the most common reasons for lower than expected energy savings are that energy conservation measures were cut-out during value engineering or cut-out due to later decisions that a technology was functionally risky. This research supports large scale investments in energy conservation technologies for buildings through rebate programs, code improvements, and design guides created by large owners. It identifies technologies that need a higher degree of building management effort and

  13. Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Multi-Probe Methodology and Simulated Likelihood Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krause, E.; et al.

    2017-06-28

    We present the methodology for and detail the implementation of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 3x2pt DES Year 1 (Y1) analysis, which combines configuration-space two-point statistics from three different cosmological probes: cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering, using data from the first year of DES observations. We have developed two independent modeling pipelines and describe the code validation process. We derive expressions for analytical real-space multi-probe covariances, and describe their validation with numerical simulations. We stress-test the inference pipelines in simulated likelihood analyses that vary 6-7 cosmology parameters plus 20 nuisance parameters and precisely resemble the analysis to be presented in the DES 3x2pt analysis paper, using a variety of simulated input data vectors with varying assumptions. We find that any disagreement between pipelines leads to changes in assigned likelihood $\\Delta \\chi^2 \\le 0.045$ with respect to the statistical error of the DES Y1 data vector. We also find that angular binning and survey mask do not impact our analytic covariance at a significant level. We determine lower bounds on scales used for analysis of galaxy clustering (8 Mpc$~h^{-1}$) and galaxy-galaxy lensing (12 Mpc$~h^{-1}$) such that the impact of modeling uncertainties in the non-linear regime is well below statistical errors, and show that our analysis choices are robust against a variety of systematics. These tests demonstrate that we have a robust analysis pipeline that yields unbiased cosmological parameter inferences for the flagship 3x2pt DES Y1 analysis. We emphasize that the level of independent code development and subsequent code comparison as demonstrated in this paper is necessary to produce credible constraints from increasingly complex multi-probe analyses of current data.

  14. Likelihood of cesarean delivery after applying leading active labor diagnostic guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neal, Jeremy L; Lowe, Nancy K; Phillippi, Julia C; Ryan, Sharon L; Knupp, Amy M; Dietrich, Mary S; Thung, Stephen F

    2017-06-01

    Friedman, the United Kingdom's National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists/Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine (ACOG/SMFM) support different active labor diagnostic guidelines. Our aims were to compare likelihoods for cesarean delivery among women admitted before vs in active labor by diagnostic guideline (within-guideline comparisons) and between women admitted in active labor per one or more of the guidelines (between-guideline comparisons). Active labor diagnostic guidelines were retrospectively applied to cervical examination data from nulliparous women with spontaneous labor onset (n = 2573). Generalized linear models were used to determine outcome likelihoods within- and between-guideline groups. At admission, 15.7%, 48.3%, and 10.1% of nulliparous women were in active labor per Friedman, NICE, and ACOG/SMFM diagnostic guidelines, respectively. Cesarean delivery was more likely among women admitted before vs in active labor per the Friedman (AOR 1.75 [95% CI 1.08-2.82] or NICE guideline (AOR 2.55 [95% CI 1.84-3.53]). Between guidelines, cesarean delivery was less likely among women admitted in active labor per the NICE guideline, as compared with the ACOG/SMFM guideline (AOR 0.55 [95% CI 0.35-0.88]). Many nulliparous women are admitted to the hospital before active labor onset. These women are significantly more likely to have a cesarean delivery. Diagnosing active labor before admission or before intervention to speed labor may be one component of a multi-faceted approach to decreasing the primary cesarean rate in the United States. The NICE diagnostic guideline is more inclusive than Friedman or ACOG/SMFM guidelines and its use may be the most clinically useful for safely lowering cesarean rates. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Bias Correction for the Maximum Likelihood Estimate of Ability. Research Report. ETS RR-05-15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jinming

    2005-01-01

    Lord's bias function and the weighted likelihood estimation method are effective in reducing the bias of the maximum likelihood estimate of an examinee's ability under the assumption that the true item parameters are known. This paper presents simulation studies to determine the effectiveness of these two methods in reducing the bias when the item…

  16. Bias correction in the hierarchical likelihood approach to the analysis of multivariate survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Jihyoun; Hsu, Li; Gorfine, Malka

    2012-07-01

    Frailty models are useful for measuring unobserved heterogeneity in risk of failures across clusters, providing cluster-specific risk prediction. In a frailty model, the latent frailties shared by members within a cluster are assumed to act multiplicatively on the hazard function. In order to obtain parameter and frailty variate estimates, we consider the hierarchical likelihood (H-likelihood) approach (Ha, Lee and Song, 2001. Hierarchical-likelihood approach for frailty models. Biometrika 88, 233-243) in which the latent frailties are treated as "parameters" and estimated jointly with other parameters of interest. We find that the H-likelihood estimators perform well when the censoring rate is low, however, they are substantially biased when the censoring rate is moderate to high. In this paper, we propose a simple and easy-to-implement bias correction method for the H-likelihood estimators under a shared frailty model. We also extend the method to a multivariate frailty model, which incorporates complex dependence structure within clusters. We conduct an extensive simulation study and show that the proposed approach performs very well for censoring rates as high as 80%. We also illustrate the method with a breast cancer data set. Since the H-likelihood is the same as the penalized likelihood function, the proposed bias correction method is also applicable to the penalized likelihood estimators.

  17. Analyzing multivariate survival data using composite likelihood and flexible parametric modeling of the hazard functions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jan; Parner, Erik

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we model multivariate time-to-event data by composite likelihood of pairwise frailty likelihoods and marginal hazards using natural cubic splines. Both right- and interval-censored data are considered. The suggested approach is applied on two types of family studies using the gamma...

  18. Existence and uniqueness of the maximum likelihood estimator for models with a Kronecker product covariance structure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ros, B.P.; Bijma, F.; de Munck, J.C.; de Gunst, M.C.M.

    2016-01-01

    This paper deals with multivariate Gaussian models for which the covariance matrix is a Kronecker product of two matrices. We consider maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters, in particular of the covariance matrix. There is no explicit expression for the maximum likelihood estimator

  19. Likelihood functions for the analysis of single-molecule binned photon sequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gopich, Irina V., E-mail: irinag@niddk.nih.gov [Laboratory of Chemical Physics, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892 (United States)

    2012-03-02

    Graphical abstract: Folding of a protein with attached fluorescent dyes, the underlying conformational trajectory of interest, and the observed binned photon trajectory. Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A sequence of photon counts can be analyzed using a likelihood function. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The exact likelihood function for a two-state kinetic model is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Several approximations are considered for an arbitrary kinetic model. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Improved likelihood functions are obtained to treat sequences of FRET efficiencies. - Abstract: We consider the analysis of a class of experiments in which the number of photons in consecutive time intervals is recorded. Sequence of photon counts or, alternatively, of FRET efficiencies can be studied using likelihood-based methods. For a kinetic model of the conformational dynamics and state-dependent Poisson photon statistics, the formalism to calculate the exact likelihood that this model describes such sequences of photons or FRET efficiencies is developed. Explicit analytic expressions for the likelihood function for a two-state kinetic model are provided. The important special case when conformational dynamics are so slow that at most a single transition occurs in a time bin is considered. By making a series of approximations, we eventually recover the likelihood function used in hidden Markov models. In this way, not only is insight gained into the range of validity of this procedure, but also an improved likelihood function can be obtained.

  20. Use of deterministic sampling for exploring likelihoods in linkage analysis for quantitative traits.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mackinnon, M.J.; Beek, van der S.; Kinghorn, B.P.

    1996-01-01

    Deterministic sampling was used to numerically evaluate the expected log-likelihood surfaces of QTL-marker linkage models in large pedigrees with simple structures. By calculating the expected values of likelihoods, questions of power of experimental designs, bias in parameter estimates, approximate

  1. Likelihood ratio data to report the validation of a forensic fingerprint evaluation method

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramos, Daniel; Haraksim, Rudolf; Meuwly, Didier

    2017-01-01

    Data to which the authors refer to throughout this article are likelihood ratios (LR) computed from the comparison of 5–12 minutiae fingermarks with fingerprints. These LRs data are used for the validation of a likelihood ratio (LR) method in forensic evidence evaluation. These data present a

  2. A guideline for the validation of likelihood ratio methods used for forensic evidence evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwly, Didier; Ramos, Daniel; Haraksim, Rudolf

    2017-01-01

    This Guideline proposes a protocol for the validation of forensic evaluation methods at the source level, using the Likelihood Ratio framework as defined within the Bayes’ inference model. In the context of the inference of identity of source, the Likelihood Ratio is used to evaluate the strength of

  3. Sampling variability in forensic likelihood-ratio computation: A simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ali, Tauseef; Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.; Meuwly, Didier

    2015-01-01

    Recently, in the forensic biometric community, there is a growing interest to compute a metric called “likelihood- ratio‿ when a pair of biometric specimens is compared using a biometric recognition system. Generally, a biomet- ric recognition system outputs a score and therefore a likelihood-ratio

  4. Statistical modelling of survival data with random effects h-likelihood approach

    CERN Document Server

    Ha, Il Do; Lee, Youngjo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides a groundbreaking introduction to the likelihood inference for correlated survival data via the hierarchical (or h-) likelihood in order to obtain the (marginal) likelihood and to address the computational difficulties in inferences and extensions. The approach presented in the book overcomes shortcomings in the traditional likelihood-based methods for clustered survival data such as intractable integration. The text includes technical materials such as derivations and proofs in each chapter, as well as recently developed software programs in R (“frailtyHL”), while the real-world data examples together with an R package, “frailtyHL” in CRAN, provide readers with useful hands-on tools. Reviewing new developments since the introduction of the h-likelihood to survival analysis (methods for interval estimation of the individual frailty and for variable selection of the fixed effects in the general class of frailty models) and guiding future directions, the book is of interest to research...

  5. Sampling of systematic errors to estimate likelihood weights in nuclear data uncertainty propagation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helgesson, P.; Sjöstrand, H.; Koning, A.J.; Rydén, J.; Rochman, D.; Alhassan, E.; Pomp, S.

    2016-01-01

    In methodologies for nuclear data (ND) uncertainty assessment and propagation based on random sampling, likelihood weights can be used to infer experimental information into the distributions for the ND. As the included number of correlated experimental points grows large, the computational time for the matrix inversion involved in obtaining the likelihood can become a practical problem. There are also other problems related to the conventional computation of the likelihood, e.g., the assumption that all experimental uncertainties are Gaussian. In this study, a way to estimate the likelihood which avoids matrix inversion is investigated; instead, the experimental correlations are included by sampling of systematic errors. It is shown that the model underlying the sampling methodology (using univariate normal distributions for random and systematic errors) implies a multivariate Gaussian for the experimental points (i.e., the conventional model). It is also shown that the likelihood estimates obtained through sampling of systematic errors approach the likelihood obtained with matrix inversion as the sample size for the systematic errors grows large. In studied practical cases, it is seen that the estimates for the likelihood weights converge impractically slowly with the sample size, compared to matrix inversion. The computational time is estimated to be greater than for matrix inversion in cases with more experimental points, too. Hence, the sampling of systematic errors has little potential to compete with matrix inversion in cases where the latter is applicable. Nevertheless, the underlying model and the likelihood estimates can be easier to intuitively interpret than the conventional model and the likelihood function involving the inverted covariance matrix. Therefore, this work can both have pedagogical value and be used to help motivating the conventional assumption of a multivariate Gaussian for experimental data. The sampling of systematic errors could also

  6. Climate reconstruction analysis using coexistence likelihood estimation (CRACLE): a method for the estimation of climate using vegetation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harbert, Robert S; Nixon, Kevin C

    2015-08-01

    • Plant distributions have long been understood to be correlated with the environmental conditions to which species are adapted. Climate is one of the major components driving species distributions. Therefore, it is expected that the plants coexisting in a community are reflective of the local environment, particularly climate.• Presented here is a method for the estimation of climate from local plant species coexistence data. The method, Climate Reconstruction Analysis using Coexistence Likelihood Estimation (CRACLE), is a likelihood-based method that employs specimen collection data at a global scale for the inference of species climate tolerance. CRACLE calculates the maximum joint likelihood of coexistence given individual species climate tolerance characterization to estimate the expected climate.• Plant distribution data for more than 4000 species were used to show that this method accurately infers expected climate profiles for 165 sites with diverse climatic conditions. Estimates differ from the WorldClim global climate model by less than 1.5°C on average for mean annual temperature and less than ∼250 mm for mean annual precipitation. This is a significant improvement upon other plant-based climate-proxy methods.• CRACLE validates long hypothesized interactions between climate and local associations of plant species. Furthermore, CRACLE successfully estimates climate that is consistent with the widely used WorldClim model and therefore may be applied to the quantitative estimation of paleoclimate in future studies. © 2015 Botanical Society of America, Inc.

  7. Education and Income Imbalances Among Married Couples in Malawi as Predictors for Likelihood of Physical and Emotional Intimate Partner Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnes, Stephanie

    2016-01-01

    Intimate partner violence is a social and public health problem that is prevalent across the world. In many societies, power differentials in relationships, often supported by social norms that promote gender inequality, lead to incidents of intimate partner violence. Among other factors, both a woman's years of education and educational differences between a woman and her partner have been shown to have an effect on her likelihood of experiencing intimate partner abuse. Using the 2010 Malawian Demographic and Health Survey data to analyze intimate partner violence among 3,893 married Malawian women and their husbands, this article focuses on understanding the effect of educational differences between husband and wife on the likelihood of physical and emotional abuse within a marriage. The results from logistic regression models show that a woman's level of education is a significant predictor of her likelihood of experiencing intimate partner violence by her current husband, but that this effect is contingent on her husband's level of education. This study demonstrates the need to educate men alongside of women in Malawi to help decrease women's risk of physical and emotional intimate partner violence.

  8. PROCOV: maximum likelihood estimation of protein phylogeny under covarion models and site-specific covarion pattern analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Huai-Chun

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The covarion hypothesis of molecular evolution holds that selective pressures on a given amino acid or nucleotide site are dependent on the identity of other sites in the molecule that change throughout time, resulting in changes of evolutionary rates of sites along the branches of a phylogenetic tree. At the sequence level, covarion-like evolution at a site manifests as conservation of nucleotide or amino acid states among some homologs where the states are not conserved in other homologs (or groups of homologs. Covarion-like evolution has been shown to relate to changes in functions at sites in different clades, and, if ignored, can adversely affect the accuracy of phylogenetic inference. Results PROCOV (protein covarion analysis is a software tool that implements a number of previously proposed covarion models of protein evolution for phylogenetic inference in a maximum likelihood framework. Several algorithmic and implementation improvements in this tool over previous versions make computationally expensive tree searches with covarion models more efficient and analyses of large phylogenomic data sets tractable. PROCOV can be used to identify covarion sites by comparing the site likelihoods under the covarion process to the corresponding site likelihoods under a rates-across-sites (RAS process. Those sites with the greatest log-likelihood difference between a 'covarion' and an RAS process were found to be of functional or structural significance in a dataset of bacterial and eukaryotic elongation factors. Conclusion Covarion models implemented in PROCOV may be especially useful for phylogenetic estimation when ancient divergences between sequences have occurred and rates of evolution at sites are likely to have changed over the tree. It can also be used to study lineage-specific functional shifts in protein families that result in changes in the patterns of site variability among subtrees.

  9. Improvement and comparison of likelihood functions for model calibration and parameter uncertainty analysis within a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Qin-Bo; Chen, Xi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Schulte, Achim

    2014-11-01

    In this study, the likelihood functions for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models are compared and improved through the following steps: (1) the equivalent relationship between the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the likelihood function with Gaussian independent and identically distributed residuals is proved; (2) a new estimation method of the Box-Cox transformation (BC) parameter is developed to improve the effective elimination of the heteroscedasticity of model residuals; and (3) three likelihood functions-NSE, Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-GED) and Skew Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-SGED)-are applied for SWAT-WB-VSA (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - Water Balance - Variable Source Area) model calibration in the Baocun watershed, Eastern China. Performances of calibrated models are compared using the observed river discharges and groundwater levels. The result shows that the minimum variance constraint can effectively estimate the BC parameter. The form of the likelihood function significantly impacts on the calibrated parameters and the simulated results of high and low flow components. SWAT-WB-VSA with the NSE approach simulates flood well, but baseflow badly owing to the assumption of Gaussian error distribution, where the probability of the large error is low, but the small error around zero approximates equiprobability. By contrast, SWAT-WB-VSA with the BC-GED or BC-SGED approach mimics baseflow well, which is proved in the groundwater level simulation. The assumption of skewness of the error distribution may be unnecessary, because all the results of the BC-SGED approach are nearly the same as those of the BC-GED approach.

  10. Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2018-06-01

    Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Distributed Leadership Change Process Model for Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Sandra; Harvey, Marina

    2017-01-01

    The higher education sector operates in an increasingly complex global environment that is placing it under considerable stress and resulting in widespread change to the operating context and leadership of higher education institutions. The outcome has been the increased likelihood of conflict between academics and senior leaders, presaging the…

  12. International Students' Likelihood to Seek Counseling While Studying Abroad

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onabule, Adebayo I.; Boes, Susan R.

    2013-01-01

    International students experience significant stressors while studying in American colleges and universities, yet they use psychological services far less than domestic students (Misra & Castillo, 2004). Factors such as previous experience with counseling, perceived effectiveness of counseling style, and nationality were found to be factors…

  13. The fine-tuning cost of the likelihood in SUSY models

    CERN Document Server

    Ghilencea, D M

    2013-01-01

    In SUSY models, the fine tuning of the electroweak (EW) scale with respect to their parameters gamma_i={m_0, m_{1/2}, mu_0, A_0, B_0,...} and the maximal likelihood L to fit the experimental data are usually regarded as two different problems. We show that, if one regards the EW minimum conditions as constraints that fix the EW scale, this commonly held view is not correct and that the likelihood contains all the information about fine-tuning. In this case we show that the corrected likelihood is equal to the ratio L/Delta of the usual likelihood L and the traditional fine tuning measure Delta of the EW scale. A similar result is obtained for the integrated likelihood over the set {gamma_i}, that can be written as a surface integral of the ratio L/Delta, with the surface in gamma_i space determined by the EW minimum constraints. As a result, a large likelihood actually demands a large ratio L/Delta or equivalently, a small chi^2_{new}=chi^2_{old}+2*ln(Delta). This shows the fine-tuning cost to the likelihood ...

  14. Zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test for drug safety signal detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Lan; Zheng, Dan; Zalkikar, Jyoti; Tiwari, Ram

    2017-02-01

    In recent decades, numerous methods have been developed for data mining of large drug safety databases, such as Food and Drug Administration's (FDA's) Adverse Event Reporting System, where data matrices are formed by drugs such as columns and adverse events as rows. Often, a large number of cells in these data matrices have zero cell counts and some of them are "true zeros" indicating that the drug-adverse event pairs cannot occur, and these zero counts are distinguished from the other zero counts that are modeled zero counts and simply indicate that the drug-adverse event pairs have not occurred yet or have not been reported yet. In this paper, a zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is proposed to identify drug-adverse event pairs that have disproportionately high reporting rates, which are also called signals. The maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test are obtained using the expectation and maximization algorithm. The zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test is also modified to handle the stratified analyses for binary and categorical covariates (e.g. gender and age) in the data. The proposed zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method is shown to asymptotically control the type I error and false discovery rate, and its finite sample performance for signal detection is evaluated through a simulation study. The simulation results show that the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method performs similar to Poisson model based likelihood ratio test method when the estimated percentage of true zeros in the database is small. Both the zero-inflated Poisson model based likelihood ratio test and likelihood ratio test methods are applied to six selected drugs, from the 2006 to 2011 Adverse Event Reporting System database, with varying percentages of observed zero-count cells.

  15. Massive optimal data compression and density estimation for scalable, likelihood-free inference in cosmology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsing, Justin; Wandelt, Benjamin; Feeney, Stephen

    2018-03-01

    Many statistical models in cosmology can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihood functions. Likelihood-free inference methods allow us to perform Bayesian inference from these models using only forward simulations, free from any likelihood assumptions or approximations. Likelihood-free inference generically involves simulating mock data and comparing to the observed data; this comparison in data-space suffers from the curse of dimensionality and requires compression of the data to a small number of summary statistics to be tractable. In this paper we use massive asymptotically-optimal data compression to reduce the dimensionality of the data-space to just one number per parameter, providing a natural and optimal framework for summary statistic choice for likelihood-free inference. Secondly, we present the first cosmological application of Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference (DELFI), which learns a parameterized model for joint distribution of data and parameters, yielding both the parameter posterior and the model evidence. This approach is conceptually simple, requires less tuning than traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approaches to likelihood-free inference and can give high-fidelity posteriors from orders of magnitude fewer forward simulations. As an additional bonus, it enables parameter inference and Bayesian model comparison simultaneously. We demonstrate Density Estimation Likelihood-Free Inference with massive data compression on an analysis of the joint light-curve analysis supernova data, as a simple validation case study. We show that high-fidelity posterior inference is possible for full-scale cosmological data analyses with as few as ˜104 simulations, with substantial scope for further improvement, demonstrating the scalability of likelihood-free inference to large and complex cosmological datasets.

  16. Implementation of linear filters for iterative penalized maximum likelihood SPECT reconstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Z.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports on six low-pass linear filters applied in frequency space implemented for iterative penalized maximum-likelihood (ML) SPECT image reconstruction. The filters implemented were the Shepp-Logan filter, the Butterworth filer, the Gaussian filter, the Hann filter, the Parzen filer, and the Lagrange filter. The low-pass filtering was applied in frequency space to projection data for the initial estimate and to the difference of projection data and reprojected data for higher order approximations. The projection data were acquired experimentally from a chest phantom consisting of non-uniform attenuating media. All the filters could effectively remove the noise and edge artifacts associated with ML approach if the frequency cutoff was properly chosen. The improved performance of the Parzen and Lagrange filters relative to the others was observed. The best image, by viewing its profiles in terms of noise-smoothing, edge-sharpening, and contrast, was the one obtained with the Parzen filter. However, the Lagrange filter has the potential to consider the characteristics of detector response function

  17. Speech perception in autism spectrum disorder: An activation likelihood estimation meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tryfon, Ana; Foster, Nicholas E V; Sharda, Megha; Hyde, Krista L

    2018-02-15

    Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is often characterized by atypical language profiles and auditory and speech processing. These can contribute to aberrant language and social communication skills in ASD. The study of the neural basis of speech perception in ASD can serve as a potential neurobiological marker of ASD early on, but mixed results across studies renders it difficult to find a reliable neural characterization of speech processing in ASD. To this aim, the present study examined the functional neural basis of speech perception in ASD versus typical development (TD) using an activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analysis of 18 qualifying studies. The present study included separate analyses for TD and ASD, which allowed us to examine patterns of within-group brain activation as well as both common and distinct patterns of brain activation across the ASD and TD groups. Overall, ASD and TD showed mostly common brain activation of speech processing in bilateral superior temporal gyrus (STG) and left inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). However, the results revealed trends for some distinct activation in the TD group showing additional activation in higher-order brain areas including left superior frontal gyrus (SFG), left medial frontal gyrus (MFG), and right IFG. These results provide a more reliable neural characterization of speech processing in ASD relative to previous single neuroimaging studies and motivate future work to investigate how these brain signatures relate to behavioral measures of speech processing in ASD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Maximal information analysis: I - various Wayne State plots and the most common likelihood principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonvicini, G.

    2005-01-01

    Statistical analysis using all moments of the likelihood L(y vertical bar α) (y being the data and α being the fit parameters) is presented. The relevant plots for various data fitting situations are presented. The goodness of fit (GOF) parameter (currently the χ 2 ) is redefined as the isoprobability level in a multidimensional space. Many useful properties of statistical analysis are summarized in a new statistical principle which states that the most common likelihood, and not the tallest, is the best possible likelihood, when comparing experiments or hypotheses

  19. Simplified likelihood for the re-interpretation of public CMS results

    CERN Document Server

    The CMS Collaboration

    2017-01-01

    In this note, a procedure for the construction of simplified likelihoods for the re-interpretation of the results of CMS searches for new physics is presented. The procedure relies on the use of a reduced set of information on the background models used in these searches which can readily be provided by the CMS collaboration. A toy example is used to demonstrate the procedure and its accuracy in reproducing the full likelihood for setting limits in models for physics beyond the standard model. Finally, two representative searches from the CMS collaboration are used to demonstrate the validity of the simplified likelihood approach under realistic conditions.

  20. Optimizing Likelihood Models for Particle Trajectory Segmentation in Multi-State Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Dylan Christopher; Scrimgeour, Jan

    2018-06-19

    Particle tracking offers significant insight into the molecular mechanics that govern the behav- ior of living cells. The analysis of molecular trajectories that transition between different motive states, such as diffusive, driven and tethered modes, is of considerable importance, with even single trajectories containing significant amounts of information about a molecule's environment and its interactions with cellular structures. Hidden Markov models (HMM) have been widely adopted to perform the segmentation of such complex tracks. In this paper, we show that extensive analysis of hidden Markov model outputs using data derived from multi-state Brownian dynamics simulations can be used both for the optimization of the likelihood models used to describe the states of the system and for characterization of the technique's failure mechanisms. This analysis was made pos- sible by the implementation of parallelized adaptive direct search algorithm on a Nvidia graphics processing unit. This approach provides critical information for the visualization of HMM failure and successful design of particle tracking experiments where trajectories contain multiple mobile states. © 2018 IOP Publishing Ltd.

  1. Task-based detectability in CT image reconstruction by filtered backprojection and penalized likelihood estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gang, Grace J. [Institute of Biomaterials and Biomedical Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5G 2M9, Canada and Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore Maryland 21205 (Canada); Stayman, J. Webster; Zbijewski, Wojciech [Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore Maryland 21205 (United States); Siewerdsen, Jeffrey H., E-mail: jeff.siewerdsen@jhu.edu [Institute of Biomaterials and Biomedical Engineering, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5G 2M9, Canada and Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland 21205 (United States)

    2014-08-15

    Purpose: Nonstationarity is an important aspect of imaging performance in CT and cone-beam CT (CBCT), especially for systems employing iterative reconstruction. This work presents a theoretical framework for both filtered-backprojection (FBP) and penalized-likelihood (PL) reconstruction that includes explicit descriptions of nonstationary noise, spatial resolution, and task-based detectability index. Potential utility of the model was demonstrated in the optimal selection of regularization parameters in PL reconstruction. Methods: Analytical models for local modulation transfer function (MTF) and noise-power spectrum (NPS) were investigated for both FBP and PL reconstruction, including explicit dependence on the object and spatial location. For FBP, a cascaded systems analysis framework was adapted to account for nonstationarity by separately calculating fluence and system gains for each ray passing through any given voxel. For PL, the point-spread function and covariance were derived using the implicit function theorem and first-order Taylor expansion according toFessler [“Mean and variance of implicitly defined biased estimators (such as penalized maximum likelihood): Applications to tomography,” IEEE Trans. Image Process. 5(3), 493–506 (1996)]. Detectability index was calculated for a variety of simple tasks. The model for PL was used in selecting the regularization strength parameter to optimize task-based performance, with both a constant and a spatially varying regularization map. Results: Theoretical models of FBP and PL were validated in 2D simulated fan-beam data and found to yield accurate predictions of local MTF and NPS as a function of the object and the spatial location. The NPS for both FBP and PL exhibit similar anisotropic nature depending on the pathlength (and therefore, the object and spatial location within the object) traversed by each ray, with the PL NPS experiencing greater smoothing along directions with higher noise. The MTF of FBP

  2. Penalized likelihood fluence optimization with evolutionary components for intensity modulated radiation therapy treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baydush, Alan H.; Marks, Lawrence B.; Das, Shiva K.

    2004-01-01

    dose-volume limits by diverting dose away from proximal critical structures. The global search for an optimal three-beam orientation set yielded gantry angles of 70 deg., 170 deg., and 320 deg. The EUD for this orientation set was 58 Gy, with 96% of the target within the set upper and lower limits. In comparison, optimized EUDs for the manually selected orientation sets of three, four, five and seven beams were 52.3, 52.6, 56.9, and 61.3 Gy, respectively. The orientation optimized three-beam plan yielded higher EUDs than the manually selected three-, four-, and five-beam plans, but lower EUDs than the seven-beam plan. In conclusion, a novel penalized likelihood algorithm with evolutionary components has successfully been implemented to optimize beamlet fluences for IMRT. Initial results are promising for dose conformity and uniformity of dose to target. When combined with optimal beam orientation selection for prostate cancer treatment planning, the results indicate that plans with a small number of optimized beam orientations achieve results comparable to those with a larger number of conventionally oriented beams

  3. Debris Likelihood, based on GhostNet, NASA Aqua MODIS, and GOES Imager, EXPERIMENTAL

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Debris Likelihood Index (Estimated) is calculated from GhostNet, NASA Aqua MODIS Chl a and NOAA GOES Imager SST data. THIS IS AN EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT: intended...

  4. A biclustering algorithm for binary matrices based on penalized Bernoulli likelihood

    KAUST Repository

    Lee, Seokho; Huang, Jianhua Z.

    2013-01-01

    We propose a new biclustering method for binary data matrices using the maximum penalized Bernoulli likelihood estimation. Our method applies a multi-layer model defined on the logits of the success probabilities, where each layer represents a

  5. Performances of the likelihood-ratio classifier based on different data modelings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chen, C.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

    2008-01-01

    The classical likelihood ratio classifier easily collapses in many biometric applications especially with independent training-test subjects. The reason lies in the inaccurate estimation of the underlying user-specific feature density. Firstly, the feature density estimation suffers from

  6. Finite mixture model: A maximum likelihood estimation approach on time series data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Phoong Seuk; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

    2014-09-01

    Recently, statistician emphasized on the fitting of finite mixture model by using maximum likelihood estimation as it provides asymptotic properties. In addition, it shows consistency properties as the sample sizes increases to infinity. This illustrated that maximum likelihood estimation is an unbiased estimator. Moreover, the estimate parameters obtained from the application of maximum likelihood estimation have smallest variance as compared to others statistical method as the sample sizes increases. Thus, maximum likelihood estimation is adopted in this paper to fit the two-component mixture model in order to explore the relationship between rubber price and exchange rate for Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia. Results described that there is a negative effect among rubber price and exchange rate for all selected countries.

  7. Moral Identity Predicts Doping Likelihood via Moral Disengagement and Anticipated Guilt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavussanu, Maria; Ring, Christopher

    2017-08-01

    In this study, we integrated elements of social cognitive theory of moral thought and action and the social cognitive model of moral identity to better understand doping likelihood in athletes. Participants (N = 398) recruited from a variety of team sports completed measures of moral identity, moral disengagement, anticipated guilt, and doping likelihood. Moral identity predicted doping likelihood indirectly via moral disengagement and anticipated guilt. Anticipated guilt about potential doping mediated the relationship between moral disengagement and doping likelihood. Our findings provide novel evidence to suggest that athletes, who feel that being a moral person is central to their self-concept, are less likely to use banned substances due to their lower tendency to morally disengage and the more intense feelings of guilt they expect to experience for using banned substances.

  8. 230Th and 234Th as coupled tracers of particle cycling in the ocean: A maximum likelihood approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei-Lei; Armstrong, Robert A.; Cochran, J. Kirk; Heilbrun, Christina

    2016-05-01

    We applied maximum likelihood estimation to measurements of Th isotopes (234,230Th) in Mediterranean Sea sediment traps that separated particles according to settling velocity. This study contains two unique aspects. First, it relies on settling velocities that were measured using sediment traps, rather than on measured particle sizes and an assumed relationship between particle size and sinking velocity. Second, because of the labor and expense involved in obtaining these data, they were obtained at only a few depths, and their analysis required constructing a new type of box-like model, which we refer to as a "two-layer" model, that we then analyzed using likelihood techniques. Likelihood techniques were developed in the 1930s by statisticians, and form the computational core of both Bayesian and non-Bayesian statistics. Their use has recently become very popular in ecology, but they are relatively unknown in geochemistry. Our model was formulated by assuming steady state and first-order reaction kinetics for thorium adsorption and desorption, and for particle aggregation, disaggregation, and remineralization. We adopted a cutoff settling velocity (49 m/d) from Armstrong et al. (2009) to separate particles into fast- and slow-sinking classes. A unique set of parameters with no dependence on prior values was obtained. Adsorption rate constants for both slow- and fast-sinking particles are slightly higher in the upper layer than in the lower layer. Slow-sinking particles have higher adsorption rate constants than fast-sinking particles. Desorption rate constants are higher in the lower layer (slow-sinking particles: 13.17 ± 1.61, fast-sinking particles: 13.96 ± 0.48) than in the upper layer (slow-sinking particles: 7.87 ± 0.60 y-1, fast-sinking particles: 1.81 ± 0.44 y-1). Aggregation rate constants were higher, 1.88 ± 0.04, in the upper layer and just 0.07 ± 0.01 y-1 in the lower layer. Disaggregation rate constants were just 0.30 ± 0.10 y-1 in the upper

  9. Parameter estimation in astronomy through application of the likelihood ratio. [satellite data analysis techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cash, W.

    1979-01-01

    Many problems in the experimental estimation of parameters for models can be solved through use of the likelihood ratio test. Applications of the likelihood ratio, with particular attention to photon counting experiments, are discussed. The procedures presented solve a greater range of problems than those currently in use, yet are no more difficult to apply. The procedures are proved analytically, and examples from current problems in astronomy are discussed.

  10. Maximum Likelihood Approach for RFID Tag Set Cardinality Estimation with Detection Errors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Chuyen T.; Hayashi, Kazunori; Kaneko, Megumi

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Estimation schemes of Radio Frequency IDentification (RFID) tag set cardinality are studied in this paper using Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach. We consider the estimation problem under the model of multiple independent reader sessions with detection errors due to unreliable radio...... is evaluated under dierent system parameters and compared with that of the conventional method via computer simulations assuming flat Rayleigh fading environments and framed-slotted ALOHA based protocol. Keywords RFID tag cardinality estimation maximum likelihood detection error...

  11. Modified Moment, Maximum Likelihood and Percentile Estimators for the Parameters of the Power Function Distribution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Azam Zaka

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the modifications of maximum likelihood, moments and percentile estimators of the two parameter Power function distribution. Sampling behavior of the estimators is indicated by Monte Carlo simulation. For some combinations of parameter values, some of the modified estimators appear better than the traditional maximum likelihood, moments and percentile estimators with respect to bias, mean square error and total deviation.

  12. Practical Statistics for LHC Physicists: Descriptive Statistics, Probability and Likelihood (1/3)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    These lectures cover those principles and practices of statistics that are most relevant for work at the LHC. The first lecture discusses the basic ideas of descriptive statistics, probability and likelihood. The second lecture covers the key ideas in the frequentist approach, including confidence limits, profile likelihoods, p-values, and hypothesis testing. The third lecture covers inference in the Bayesian approach. Throughout, real-world examples will be used to illustrate the practical application of the ideas. No previous knowledge is assumed.

  13. Tests and Confidence Intervals for an Extended Variance Component Using the Modified Likelihood Ratio Statistic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Ole Fredslund; Frydenberg, Morten; Jensen, Jens Ledet

    2005-01-01

    The large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic is studied for testing a variance component equal to a specified value. Formulas are presented in the general balanced case, whereas in the unbalanced case only the one-way random effects model is studied. Simulation studies are presented......, showing that the normal approximation to the large deviation modified likelihood ratio statistic gives confidence intervals for variance components with coverage probabilities very close to the nominal confidence coefficient....

  14. INTERNATIONALIZATION IN HIGHER EDUCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalina Crisan-Mitra

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Internationalization of higher education is one of the key trends of development. There are several approaches on how to achieve competitiveness and performance in higher education and international academic mobility; students’ exchange programs, partnerships are some of the aspects that can play a significant role in this process. This paper wants to point out the student’s perception regarding two main directions: one about the master students’ expectation regarding how an internationalized master should be organized and should function, and second the degree of satisfaction of the beneficiaries of internationalized master programs from Babe-Bolyai University. This article is based on an empirical qualitative research that was implemented to students of an internationalized master from the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration. This research can be considered a useful example for those preoccupied to increase the quality of higher education and conclusions drawn have relevance both theoretically and especially practically.

  15. Anticipating cognitive effort: roles of perceived error-likelihood and time demands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Timothy L; Inzlicht, Michael; Risko, Evan F

    2017-11-13

    Why are some actions evaluated as effortful? In the present set of experiments we address this question by examining individuals' perception of effort when faced with a trade-off between two putative cognitive costs: how much time a task takes vs. how error-prone it is. Specifically, we were interested in whether individuals anticipate engaging in a small amount of hard work (i.e., low time requirement, but high error-likelihood) vs. a large amount of easy work (i.e., high time requirement, but low error-likelihood) as being more effortful. In between-subject designs, Experiments 1 through 3 demonstrated that individuals anticipate options that are high in perceived error-likelihood (yet less time consuming) as more effortful than options that are perceived to be more time consuming (yet low in error-likelihood). Further, when asked to evaluate which of the two tasks was (a) more effortful, (b) more error-prone, and (c) more time consuming, effort-based and error-based choices closely tracked one another, but this was not the case for time-based choices. Utilizing a within-subject design, Experiment 4 demonstrated overall similar pattern of judgments as Experiments 1 through 3. However, both judgments of error-likelihood and time demand similarly predicted effort judgments. Results are discussed within the context of extant accounts of cognitive control, with considerations of how error-likelihood and time demands may independently and conjunctively factor into judgments of cognitive effort.

  16. The likelihood ratio as a random variable for linked markers in kinship analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Egeland, Thore; Slooten, Klaas

    2016-11-01

    The likelihood ratio is the fundamental quantity that summarizes the evidence in forensic cases. Therefore, it is important to understand the theoretical properties of this statistic. This paper is the last in a series of three, and the first to study linked markers. We show that for all non-inbred pairwise kinship comparisons, the expected likelihood ratio in favor of a type of relatedness depends on the allele frequencies only via the number of alleles, also for linked markers, and also if the true relationship is another one than is tested for by the likelihood ratio. Exact expressions for the expectation and variance are derived for all these cases. Furthermore, we show that the expected likelihood ratio is a non-increasing function if the recombination rate increases between 0 and 0.5 when the actual relationship is the one investigated by the LR. Besides being of theoretical interest, exact expressions such as obtained here can be used for software validation as they allow to verify the correctness up to arbitrary precision. The paper also presents results and advice of practical importance. For example, we argue that the logarithm of the likelihood ratio behaves in a fundamentally different way than the likelihood ratio itself in terms of expectation and variance, in agreement with its interpretation as weight of evidence. Equipped with the results presented and freely available software, one may check calculations and software and also do power calculations.

  17. Detecting Novelty and Significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Vera; Bradley, Margaret M.; Codispoti, Maurizio; Lang, Peter J.

    2013-01-01

    Studies of cognition often use an “oddball” paradigm to study effects of stimulus novelty and significance on information processing. However, an oddball tends to be perceptually more novel than the standard, repeated stimulus as well as more relevant to the ongoing task, making it difficult to disentangle effects due to perceptual novelty and stimulus significance. In the current study, effects of perceptual novelty and significance on ERPs were assessed in a passive viewing context by presenting repeated and novel pictures (natural scenes) that either signaled significant information regarding the current context or not. A fronto-central N2 component was primarily affected by perceptual novelty, whereas a centro-parietal P3 component was modulated by both stimulus significance and novelty. The data support an interpretation that the N2 reflects perceptual fluency and is attenuated when a current stimulus matches an active memory representation and that the amplitude of the P3 reflects stimulus meaning and significance. PMID:19400680

  18. Significant NRC Enforcement Actions

    Data.gov (United States)

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission — This dataset provides a list of Nuclear Regulartory Commission (NRC) issued significant enforcement actions. These actions, referred to as "escalated", are issued by...

  19. PALM: a paralleled and integrated framework for phylogenetic inference with automatic likelihood model selectors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Hwa Chen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Selecting an appropriate substitution model and deriving a tree topology for a given sequence set are essential in phylogenetic analysis. However, such time consuming, computationally intensive tasks rely on knowledge of substitution model theories and related expertise to run through all possible combinations of several separate programs. To ensure a thorough and efficient analysis and avert tedious manipulations of various programs, this work presents an intuitive framework, the phylogenetic reconstruction with automatic likelihood model selectors (PALM, with convincing, updated algorithms and a best-fit model selection mechanism for seamless phylogenetic analysis. METHODOLOGY: As an integrated framework of ClustalW, PhyML, MODELTEST, ProtTest, and several in-house programs, PALM evaluates the fitness of 56 substitution models for nucleotide sequences and 112 substitution models for protein sequences with scores in various criteria. The input for PALM can be either sequences in FASTA format or a sequence alignment file in PHYLIP format. To accelerate the computing of maximum likelihood and bootstrapping, this work integrates MPICH2/PhyML, PalmMonitor and Palm job controller across several machines with multiple processors and adopts the task parallelism approach. Moreover, an intuitive and interactive web component, PalmTree, is developed for displaying and operating the output tree with options of tree rooting, branches swapping, viewing the branch length values, and viewing bootstrapping score, as well as removing nodes to restart analysis iteratively. SIGNIFICANCE: The workflow of PALM is straightforward and coherent. Via a succinct, user-friendly interface, researchers unfamiliar with phylogenetic analysis can easily use this server to submit sequences, retrieve the output, and re-submit a job based on a previous result if some sequences are to be deleted or added for phylogenetic reconstruction. PALM results in an inference of

  20. Hypnosis and pain perception: An Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE) meta-analysis of functional neuroimaging studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Casale, Antonio; Ferracuti, Stefano; Rapinesi, Chiara; De Rossi, Pietro; Angeletti, Gloria; Sani, Gabriele; Kotzalidis, Georgios D; Girardi, Paolo

    2015-12-01

    Several studies reported that hypnosis can modulate pain perception and tolerance by affecting cortical and subcortical activity in brain regions involved in these processes. We conducted an Activation Likelihood Estimation (ALE) meta-analysis on functional neuroimaging studies of pain perception under hypnosis to identify brain activation-deactivation patterns occurring during hypnotic suggestions aiming at pain reduction, including hypnotic analgesic, pleasant, or depersonalization suggestions (HASs). We searched the PubMed, Embase and PsycInfo databases; we included papers published in peer-reviewed journals dealing with functional neuroimaging and hypnosis-modulated pain perception. The ALE meta-analysis encompassed data from 75 healthy volunteers reported in 8 functional neuroimaging studies. HASs during experimentally-induced pain compared to control conditions correlated with significant activations of the right anterior cingulate cortex (Brodmann's Area [BA] 32), left superior frontal gyrus (BA 6), and right insula, and deactivation of right midline nuclei of the thalamus. HASs during experimental pain impact both cortical and subcortical brain activity. The anterior cingulate, left superior frontal, and right insular cortices activation increases could induce a thalamic deactivation (top-down inhibition), which may correlate with reductions in pain intensity. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Comparative behaviour of the Dynamically Penalized Likelihood algorithm in inverse radiation therapy planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Llacer, Jorge [EC Engineering Consultants, LLC, Los Gatos, CA (United States)]. E-mail: jllacer@home.com; Solberg, Timothy D. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA (United States)]. E-mail: Solberg@radonc.ucla.edu; Promberger, Claus [BrainLAB AG, Heimstetten (Germany)]. E-mail: promberg@brainlab.com

    2001-10-01

    This paper presents a description of tests carried out to compare the behaviour of five algorithms in inverse radiation therapy planning: (1) The Dynamically Penalized Likelihood (DPL), an algorithm based on statistical estimation theory; (2) an accelerated version of the same algorithm; (3) a new fast adaptive simulated annealing (ASA) algorithm; (4) a conjugate gradient method; and (5) a Newton gradient method. A three-dimensional mathematical phantom and two clinical cases have been studied in detail. The phantom consisted of a U-shaped tumour with a partially enclosed 'spinal cord'. The clinical examples were a cavernous sinus meningioma and a prostate case. The algorithms have been tested in carefully selected and controlled conditions so as to ensure fairness in the assessment of results. It has been found that all five methods can yield relatively similar optimizations, except when a very demanding optimization is carried out. For the easier cases, the differences are principally in robustness, ease of use and optimization speed. In the more demanding case, there are significant differences in the resulting dose distributions. The accelerated DPL emerges as possibly the algorithm of choice for clinical practice. An appendix describes the differences in behaviour between the new ASA method and the one based on a patent by the Nomos Corporation. (author)

  2. A strategy to reduce cross-cultural miscommunication and increase the likelihood of improving health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa-Singer, Marjorie; Kassim-Lakha, Shaheen

    2003-06-01

    Encounters between physicians and patients from different cultural backgrounds are becoming commonplace. Physicians strive to improve health outcomes and increase quality of life for every patient, yet these discordant encounters appear to be a significant factor, beyond socioeconomic barriers, in creating the unequal and avoidable excess burden of disease borne by members of ethnic minority populations in the United States. Most clinicians lack the information to understand how culture influences the clinical encounter and the skills to effectively bridge potential differences. New strategies are required to expand medical training to adequately address culturally discordant encounters among the physicians, their patients, and the families, for all three may have different concepts regarding the nature of the disease, expectations about treatment, and modes of appropriate communication beyond language. The authors provide an anthropological perspective of the fundamental relationship between culture and health, and outline systemic changes needed within the social and legal structures of the health care system to reduce the risk of cross-cultural miscommunication and increase the likelihood of improving health outcomes for all populations within the multicultural U.S. society. The authors define the strengths inherent within every culture, provide a guideline for the clinician to evaluate disease and illness within its cultural context, and outline the clinical skills required to negotiate among potential differences to reach mutually desired goals for care. Last, they indicate the structural changes required in the health care setting to enable and support such practice.

  3. Aircraft control surface failure detection and isolation using the OSGLR test. [orthogonal series generalized likelihood ratio

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnice, W. F.; Motyka, P.; Wagner, E.; Hall, S. R.

    1986-01-01

    The performance of the orthogonal series generalized likelihood ratio (OSGLR) test in detecting and isolating commercial aircraft control surface and actuator failures is evaluated. A modification to incorporate age-weighting which significantly reduces the sensitivity of the algorithm to modeling errors is presented. The steady-state implementation of the algorithm based on a single linear model valid for a cruise flight condition is tested using a nonlinear aircraft simulation. A number of off-nominal no-failure flight conditions including maneuvers, nonzero flap deflections, different turbulence levels and steady winds were tested. Based on the no-failure decision functions produced by off-nominal flight conditions, the failure detection and isolation performance at the nominal flight condition was determined. The extension of the algorithm to a wider flight envelope by scheduling on dynamic pressure and flap deflection is examined. Based on this testing, the OSGLR algorithm should be capable of detecting control surface failures that would affect the safe operation of a commercial aircraft. Isolation may be difficult if there are several surfaces which produce similar effects on the aircraft. Extending the algorithm over the entire operating envelope of a commercial aircraft appears feasible.

  4. Extended maximum likelihood analysis of apparent flattenings of S0 and spiral galaxies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamura, Sadanori; Takase, Bunshiro; Hamabe, Masaru; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Kodaira, Keiichi.

    1981-01-01

    Apparent flattenings of S0 and spiral galaxies compiled by Sandage et al. (1970) and van den Bergh (1977), and those listed in the Second Reference Catalogue (RC2) are analyzed by means of the extended maximum likelihood method which was recently developed in the information theory for statistical model identification. Emphasis is put on the possible difference in the distribution of intrinsic flattenings between S0's and spirals as a group, and on the apparent disagreements present in the previous results. The present analysis shows that (1) One cannot conclude on the basis of the data in the Reference Catalogue of Bright Galaxies (RCBG) that the distribution of intrinsic flattenings of spirals is almost identical to that of S0's; spirals have wider dispersion than S0's, and there are more round systems in spirals than in S0's. (2) The distribution of intrinsic flattenings of S0's and spirals derived from the data in RC2 again indicates a significant difference from each other. (3) The distribution of intrinsic flattenings of S0's exhibits different characteristics depending upon the surface-brightness level; the distribution with one component is obtained from the data at RCBG level (--23.5 mag arcsec -2 ) and that with two components at RC2 level (25 mag arcsec -2 ). (author)

  5. Afrika Statistika ISSN 2316-090X A Bayesian significance test of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of the generalized likelihood ratio test to detect a change in binomial ... computational simplicity to the problem of calculating posterior marginals. ... the impact of a single outlier on the performance of the Bayesian significance test of change.

  6. The fine-tuning cost of the likelihood in SUSY models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghilencea, D.M.; Ross, G.G.

    2013-01-01

    In SUSY models, the fine-tuning of the electroweak (EW) scale with respect to their parameters γ i ={m 0 ,m 1/2 ,μ 0 ,A 0 ,B 0 ,…} and the maximal likelihood L to fit the experimental data are usually regarded as two different problems. We show that, if one regards the EW minimum conditions as constraints that fix the EW scale, this commonly held view is not correct and that the likelihood contains all the information about fine-tuning. In this case we show that the corrected likelihood is equal to the ratio L/Δ of the usual likelihood L and the traditional fine-tuning measure Δ of the EW scale. A similar result is obtained for the integrated likelihood over the set {γ i }, that can be written as a surface integral of the ratio L/Δ, with the surface in γ i space determined by the EW minimum constraints. As a result, a large likelihood actually demands a large ratio L/Δ or equivalently, a small χ new 2 =χ old 2 +2lnΔ. This shows the fine-tuning cost to the likelihood (χ new 2 ) of the EW scale stability enforced by SUSY, that is ignored in data fits. A good χ new 2 /d.o.f.≈1 thus demands SUSY models have a fine-tuning amount Δ≪exp(d.o.f./2), which provides a model-independent criterion for acceptable fine-tuning. If this criterion is not met, one can thus rule out SUSY models without a further χ 2 /d.o.f. analysis. Numerical methods to fit the data can easily be adapted to account for this effect.

  7. Likelihood ratio-based integrated personal risk assessment of type 2 diabetes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Noriko; Htun, Nay Chi; Daimon, Makoto; Tamiya, Gen; Kato, Takeo; Kubota, Isao; Ueno, Yoshiyuki; Yamashita, Hidetoshi; Fukao, Akira; Kayama, Takamasa; Muramatsu, Masaaki

    2014-01-01

    To facilitate personalized health care for multifactorial diseases, risks of genetic and clinical/environmental factors should be assessed together for each individual in an integrated fashion. This approach is possible with the likelihood ratio (LR)-based risk assessment system, as this system can incorporate manifold tests. We examined the usefulness of this system for assessing type 2 diabetes (T2D). Our system employed 29 genetic susceptibility variants, body mass index (BMI), and hypertension as risk factors whose LRs can be estimated from openly available T2D association data for the Japanese population. The pretest probability was set at a sex- and age-appropriate population average of diabetes prevalence. The classification performance of our LR-based risk assessment was compared to that of a non-invasive screening test for diabetes called TOPICS (with score based on age, sex, family history, smoking, BMI, and hypertension) using receiver operating characteristic analysis with a community cohort (n = 1263). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the LR-based assessment and TOPICS was 0.707 (95% CI 0.665-0.750) and 0.719 (0.675-0.762), respectively. These AUCs were much higher than that of a genetic risk score constructed using the same genetic susceptibility variants, 0.624 (0.574-0.674). The use of ethnically matched LRs is necessary for proper personal risk assessment. In conclusion, although LR-based integrated risk assessment for T2D still requires additional tests that evaluate other factors, such as risks involved in missing heritability, our results indicate the potential usability of LR-based assessment system and stress the importance of stratified epidemiological investigations in personalized medicine.

  8. Wobbling and LSF-based maximum likelihood expectation maximization reconstruction for wobbling PET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hang-Keun; Son, Young-Don; Kwon, Dae-Hyuk; Joo, Yohan; Cho, Zang-Hee

    2016-01-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) is a widely used imaging modality; however, the PET spatial resolution is not yet satisfactory for precise anatomical localization of molecular activities. Detector size is the most important factor because it determines the intrinsic resolution, which is approximately half of the detector size and determines the ultimate PET resolution. Detector size, however, cannot be made too small because both the decreased detection efficiency and the increased septal penetration effect degrade the image quality. A wobbling and line spread function (LSF)-based maximum likelihood expectation maximization (WL-MLEM) algorithm, which combined the MLEM iterative reconstruction algorithm with wobbled sampling and LSF-based deconvolution using the system matrix, was proposed for improving the spatial resolution of PET without reducing the scintillator or detector size. The new algorithm was evaluated using a simulation, and its performance was compared with that of the existing algorithms, such as conventional MLEM and LSF-based MLEM. Simulations demonstrated that the WL-MLEM algorithm yielded higher spatial resolution and image quality than the existing algorithms. The WL-MLEM algorithm with wobbling PET yielded substantially improved resolution compared with conventional algorithms with stationary PET. The algorithm can be easily extended to other iterative reconstruction algorithms, such as maximum a priori (MAP) and ordered subset expectation maximization (OSEM). The WL-MLEM algorithm with wobbling PET may offer improvements in both sensitivity and resolution, the two most sought-after features in PET design. - Highlights: • This paper proposed WL-MLEM algorithm for PET and demonstrated its performance. • WL-MLEM algorithm effectively combined wobbling and line spread function based MLEM. • WL-MLEM provided improvements in the spatial resolution and the PET image quality. • WL-MLEM can be easily extended to the other iterative

  9. [DIN-compatible vision assessment of increased reproducibility using staircase measurement and maximum likelihood analysis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigmann, U; Petersen, J

    1996-08-01

    Visual acuity determination according to DIN 58,220 does not make full use of the information received about the patient, in contrast to the staircase method. Thus, testing the same number of optotypes, the staircase method should yield more reproducible acuity results. On the other hand, the staircase method gives systematically higher acuity values because it converges on the 48% point of the psychometric function (for Landolt rings in eight positions) and not on the 65% probability, as DIN 58,220 with criterion 3/5 does. This bias can be avoided by means of a modified evaluation. Using the staircase data we performed a maximum likelihood estimate of the psychometric function as a whole and computed the acuity value for 65% probability of correct answers. We determined monocular visual acuity in 102 persons with widely differing visual performance. Each subject underwent four tests in random order, two according to DIN 58,220 and two using the modified staircase method (Landolt rings in eight positions scaled by a factor 1.26; PC monitor with 1024 x 768 pixels; distance 4.5 m). Each test was performed with 25 optotypes. The two procedures provide the same mean visual acuity values (difference less than 0.02 acuity steps). The test-retest results match in 30.4% of DIN repetitions but in 50% of the staircases. The standard deviation of the test-retest difference is 1.41 (DIN) and 1.06 (modified staircase) acuity steps. Thus the standard deviation of the single test is 1.0 (DIN) and 0.75 (modified staircase) acuity steps. The new method provides visual acuity values identical to DIN 58,220 but is superior with respect to reproducibility.

  10. An empirical likelihood ratio test robust to individual heterogeneity for differential expression analysis of RNA-seq.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Maoqi; Chen, Liang

    2018-01-01

    The individual sample heterogeneity is one of the biggest obstacles in biomarker identification for complex diseases such as cancers. Current statistical models to identify differentially expressed genes between disease and control groups often overlook the substantial human sample heterogeneity. Meanwhile, traditional nonparametric tests lose detailed data information and sacrifice the analysis power, although they are distribution free and robust to heterogeneity. Here, we propose an empirical likelihood ratio test with a mean-variance relationship constraint (ELTSeq) for the differential expression analysis of RNA sequencing (RNA-seq). As a distribution-free nonparametric model, ELTSeq handles individual heterogeneity by estimating an empirical probability for each observation without making any assumption about read-count distribution. It also incorporates a constraint for the read-count overdispersion, which is widely observed in RNA-seq data. ELTSeq demonstrates a significant improvement over existing methods such as edgeR, DESeq, t-tests, Wilcoxon tests and the classic empirical likelihood-ratio test when handling heterogeneous groups. It will significantly advance the transcriptomics studies of cancers and other complex disease. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  11. Fingermark evidence evaluation based on automated fingerprint identification system matching scores: the effect of different types of conditioning on likelihood ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alberink, Ivo; de Jongh, Arent; Rodriguez, Crystal

    2014-01-01

    In recent studies, the evidential value of the similarity of minutiae configurations of fingermarks and fingerprints, for example expressed by automated fingerprint identification systems (AFIS), is determined by likelihood ratios (LRs). The paper explores whether there is an effect on LRs if conditioning takes place on specified fingers, fingerprints, or fingermarks under competing hypotheses: In addition, an approach is explored where conditioning is asymmetric. Comparisons between fingerprints and simulated fingermarks with eight minutiae are performed to produce similarity score distributions for each type of conditioning, given a fixed AFIS matching algorithm. Both similarity scores and LRs are significantly different if the conditioning changes. Given a common-source scenario, "LRs" resulting from asymmetric conditioning are on average higher. The difference may reach a factor of 2000. As conditioning on a suspect's finger(print) is labor-intensive and requires a cooperating suspect, it is recommended to just condition on the number of minutiae in the fingermark. © 2013 American Academy of Forensic Sciences.

  12. Penalized maximum likelihood reconstruction for x-ray differential phase-contrast tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brendel, Bernhard; Teuffenbach, Maximilian von; Noël, Peter B.; Pfeiffer, Franz; Koehler, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this work is to propose a cost function with regularization to iteratively reconstruct attenuation, phase, and scatter images simultaneously from differential phase contrast (DPC) acquisitions, without the need of phase retrieval, and examine its properties. Furthermore this reconstruction method is applied to an acquisition pattern that is suitable for a DPC tomographic system with continuously rotating gantry (sliding window acquisition), overcoming the severe smearing in noniterative reconstruction. Methods: We derive a penalized maximum likelihood reconstruction algorithm to directly reconstruct attenuation, phase, and scatter image from the measured detector values of a DPC acquisition. The proposed penalty comprises, for each of the three images, an independent smoothing prior. Image quality of the proposed reconstruction is compared to images generated with FBP and iterative reconstruction after phase retrieval. Furthermore, the influence between the priors is analyzed. Finally, the proposed reconstruction algorithm is applied to experimental sliding window data acquired at a synchrotron and results are compared to reconstructions based on phase retrieval. Results: The results show that the proposed algorithm significantly increases image quality in comparison to reconstructions based on phase retrieval. No significant mutual influence between the proposed independent priors could be observed. Further it could be illustrated that the iterative reconstruction of a sliding window acquisition results in images with substantially reduced smearing artifacts. Conclusions: Although the proposed cost function is inherently nonconvex, it can be used to reconstruct images with less aliasing artifacts and less streak artifacts than reconstruction methods based on phase retrieval. Furthermore, the proposed method can be used to reconstruct images of sliding window acquisitions with negligible smearing artifacts

  13. Expert elicitation on ultrafine particles: likelihood of health effects and causal pathways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brunekreef Bert

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Exposure to fine ambient particulate matter (PM has consistently been associated with increased morbidity and mortality. The relationship between exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP and health effects is less firmly established. If UFP cause health effects independently from coarser fractions, this could affect health impact assessment of air pollution, which would possibly lead to alternative policy options to be considered to reduce the disease burden of PM. Therefore, we organized an expert elicitation workshop to assess the evidence for a causal relationship between exposure to UFP and health endpoints. Methods An expert elicitation on the health effects of ambient ultrafine particle exposure was carried out, focusing on: 1 the likelihood of causal relationships with key health endpoints, and 2 the likelihood of potential causal pathways for cardiac events. Based on a systematic peer-nomination procedure, fourteen European experts (epidemiologists, toxicologists and clinicians were selected, of whom twelve attended. They were provided with a briefing book containing key literature. After a group discussion, individual expert judgments in the form of ratings of the likelihood of causal relationships and pathways were obtained using a confidence scheme adapted from the one used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results The likelihood of an independent causal relationship between increased short-term UFP exposure and increased all-cause mortality, hospital admissions for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, aggravation of asthma symptoms and lung function decrements was rated medium to high by most experts. The likelihood for long-term UFP exposure to be causally related to all cause mortality, cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and lung cancer was rated slightly lower, mostly medium. The experts rated the likelihood of each of the six identified possible causal pathways separately. Out of these

  14. Assessing Compatibility of Direct Detection Data: Halo-Independent Global Likelihood Analyses

    CERN Document Server

    Gelmini, Graciela B.

    2016-10-18

    We present two different halo-independent methods utilizing a global maximum likelihood that can assess the compatibility of dark matter direct detection data given a particular dark matter model. The global likelihood we use is comprised of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Poisson or Gaussian likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function and construct a two sided pointwise confidence band, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a "constrained parameter goodness-of-fit" test statistic, whose $p$-value we then use to define a "plausibility region" (e.g. where $p \\geq 10\\%$). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. $p < 10 \\%$). As an example we apply these methods to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic s...

  15. Physician Bayesian updating from personal beliefs about the base rate and likelihood ratio.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rottman, Benjamin Margolin

    2017-02-01

    Whether humans can accurately make decisions in line with Bayes' rule has been one of the most important yet contentious topics in cognitive psychology. Though a number of paradigms have been used for studying Bayesian updating, rarely have subjects been allowed to use their own preexisting beliefs about the prior and the likelihood. A study is reported in which physicians judged the posttest probability of a diagnosis for a patient vignette after receiving a test result, and the physicians' posttest judgments were compared to the normative posttest calculated from their own beliefs in the sensitivity and false positive rate of the test (likelihood ratio) and prior probability of the diagnosis. On the one hand, the posttest judgments were strongly related to the physicians' beliefs about both the prior probability as well as the likelihood ratio, and the priors were used considerably more strongly than in previous research. On the other hand, both the prior and the likelihoods were still not used quite as much as they should have been, and there was evidence of other nonnormative aspects to the updating, such as updating independent of the likelihood beliefs. By focusing on how physicians use their own prior beliefs for Bayesian updating, this study provides insight into how well experts perform probabilistic inference in settings in which they rely upon their own prior beliefs rather than experimenter-provided cues. It suggests that there is reason to be optimistic about experts' abilities, but that there is still considerable need for improvement.

  16. A Walk on the Wild Side: The Impact of Music on Risk-Taking Likelihood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enström, Rickard; Schmaltz, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    From a marketing perspective, there has been substantial interest in on the role of risk-perception on consumer behavior. Specific ‘problem music’ like rap and heavy metal has long been associated with delinquent behavior, including violence, drug use, and promiscuous sex. Although individuals’ risk preferences have been investigated across a range of decision-making situations, there has been little empirical work demonstrating the direct role music may have on the likelihood of engaging in risky activities. In the exploratory study reported here, we assessed the impact of listening to different styles of music while assessing risk-taking likelihood through a psychometric scale. Risk-taking likelihood was measured across ethical, financial, health and safety, recreational and social domains. Through the means of a canonical correlation analysis, the multivariate relationship between different music styles and individual risk-taking likelihood across the different domains is discussed. Our results indicate that listening to different types of music does influence risk-taking likelihood, though not in areas of health and safety. PMID:28539908

  17. A Walk on the Wild Side: The Impact of Music on Risk-Taking Likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enström, Rickard; Schmaltz, Rodney

    2017-01-01

    From a marketing perspective, there has been substantial interest in on the role of risk-perception on consumer behavior. Specific 'problem music' like rap and heavy metal has long been associated with delinquent behavior, including violence, drug use, and promiscuous sex. Although individuals' risk preferences have been investigated across a range of decision-making situations, there has been little empirical work demonstrating the direct role music may have on the likelihood of engaging in risky activities. In the exploratory study reported here, we assessed the impact of listening to different styles of music while assessing risk-taking likelihood through a psychometric scale. Risk-taking likelihood was measured across ethical, financial, health and safety, recreational and social domains. Through the means of a canonical correlation analysis, the multivariate relationship between different music styles and individual risk-taking likelihood across the different domains is discussed. Our results indicate that listening to different types of music does influence risk-taking likelihood, though not in areas of health and safety.

  18. Approximate likelihood approaches for detecting the influence of primordial gravitational waves in cosmic microwave background polarization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Zhen; Anderes, Ethan; Knox, Lloyd

    2018-05-01

    One of the major targets for next-generation cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiments is the detection of the primordial B-mode signal. Planning is under way for Stage-IV experiments that are projected to have instrumental noise small enough to make lensing and foregrounds the dominant source of uncertainty for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from polarization maps. This makes delensing a crucial part of future CMB polarization science. In this paper we present a likelihood method for estimating the tensor-to-scalar ratio r from CMB polarization observations, which combines the benefits of a full-scale likelihood approach with the tractability of the quadratic delensing technique. This method is a pixel space, all order likelihood analysis of the quadratic delensed B modes, and it essentially builds upon the quadratic delenser by taking into account all order lensing and pixel space anomalies. Its tractability relies on a crucial factorization of the pixel space covariance matrix of the polarization observations which allows one to compute the full Gaussian approximate likelihood profile, as a function of r , at the same computational cost of a single likelihood evaluation.

  19. Susceptibility, likelihood to be diagnosed, worry and fear for contracting Lyme disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogel, Joshua; Chawla, Gurasees S

    Risk perception and psychological concerns are relevant for understanding how people view Lyme disease. This study investigates the four separate outcomes of susceptibility, likelihood to be diagnosed, worry, and fear for contracting Lyme disease. University students (n=713) were surveyed about demographics, perceived health, Lyme disease knowledge, Lyme disease preventive behaviors, Lyme disease history, and Lyme disease miscellaneous variables. We found that women were associated with increased susceptibility and fear. Asian/Asian-American race/ethnicity was associated with increased worry and fear. Perceived good health was associated with increased likelihood to be diagnosed, worry, and fear. Correct knowledge was associated with increased susceptibility and likelihood to be diagnosed. Those who typically spend a lot of time outdoors were associated with increased susceptibility, likelihood to be diagnosed, worry, and fear. In conclusion, healthcare providers and public health campaigns should address susceptibility, likelihood to be diagnosed, worry, and fear about Lyme disease, and should particularly target women and Asians/Asian-Americans to address any possible misconceptions and/or offer effective coping strategies. Copyright © 2016 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. A Walk on the Wild Side: The Impact of Music on Risk-Taking Likelihood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rickard Enström

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available From a marketing perspective, there has been substantial interest in on the role of risk-perception on consumer behavior. Specific ‘problem music’ like rap and heavy metal has long been associated with delinquent behavior, including violence, drug use, and promiscuous sex. Although individuals’ risk preferences have been investigated across a range of decision-making situations, there has been little empirical work demonstrating the direct role music may have on the likelihood of engaging in risky activities. In the exploratory study reported here, we assessed the impact of listening to different styles of music while assessing risk-taking likelihood through a psychometric scale. Risk-taking likelihood was measured across ethical, financial, health and safety, recreational and social domains. Through the means of a canonical correlation analysis, the multivariate relationship between different music styles and individual risk-taking likelihood across the different domains is discussed. Our results indicate that listening to different types of music does influence risk-taking likelihood, though not in areas of health and safety.

  1. Radiosensitivity of higher plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Zhijie

    1992-11-01

    The general views on radiosensitivity of higher plants have been introduced from published references. The radiosensitivity varies with species, varieties and organs or tissues. The main factors of determining the radiosensitivity in different species are nucleus volume, chromosome volume, DNA content and endogenous compounds. The self-repair ability of DNA damage and chemical group of biological molecules, such as -SH thiohydroxy of proteins, are main factors to determine the radiosensitivity in different varieties. The moisture, oxygen, temperature radiosensitizer and protector are important external factors for radiosensitivity. Both the multiple target model and Chadwick-Leenhouts model are ideal mathematical models for describing the radiosensitivity of higher plants and the latter has more clear significance in biology

  2. Higher Education in Non-Standard Wage Contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosti, Luisa; Chelli, Francesco

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to verify whether higher education increases the likelihood of young Italian workers moving from non-standard to standard wage contracts. Design/methodology/approach: The authors exploit a data set on labour market flows, produced by the Italian National Statistical Office, by interviewing about 85,000…

  3. Efficient Levenberg-Marquardt minimization of the maximum likelihood estimator for Poisson deviates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurence, T.; Chromy, B.

    2010-01-01

    Histograms of counted events are Poisson distributed, but are typically fitted without justification using nonlinear least squares fitting. The more appropriate maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for Poisson distributed data is seldom used. We extend the use of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm commonly used for nonlinear least squares minimization for use with the MLE for Poisson distributed data. In so doing, we remove any excuse for not using this more appropriate MLE. We demonstrate the use of the algorithm and the superior performance of the MLE using simulations and experiments in the context of fluorescence lifetime imaging. Scientists commonly form histograms of counted events from their data, and extract parameters by fitting to a specified model. Assuming that the probability of occurrence for each bin is small, event counts in the histogram bins will be distributed according to the Poisson distribution. We develop here an efficient algorithm for fitting event counting histograms using the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for Poisson distributed data, rather than the non-linear least squares measure. This algorithm is a simple extension of the common Levenberg-Marquardt (L-M) algorithm, is simple to implement, quick and robust. Fitting using a least squares measure is most common, but it is the maximum likelihood estimator only for Gaussian-distributed data. Non-linear least squares methods may be applied to event counting histograms in cases where the number of events is very large, so that the Poisson distribution is well approximated by a Gaussian. However, it is not easy to satisfy this criterion in practice - which requires a large number of events. It has been well-known for years that least squares procedures lead to biased results when applied to Poisson-distributed data; a recent paper providing extensive characterization of these biases in exponential fitting is given. The more appropriate measure based on the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE

  4. Significant Tsunami Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunbar, P. K.; Furtney, M.; McLean, S. J.; Sweeney, A. D.

    2014-12-01

    Tsunamis have inflicted death and destruction on the coastlines of the world throughout history. The occurrence of tsunamis and the resulting effects have been collected and studied as far back as the second millennium B.C. The knowledge gained from cataloging and examining these events has led to significant changes in our understanding of tsunamis, tsunami sources, and methods to mitigate the effects of tsunamis. The most significant, not surprisingly, are often the most devastating, such as the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake and tsunami. The goal of this poster is to give a brief overview of the occurrence of tsunamis and then focus specifically on several significant tsunamis. There are various criteria to determine the most significant tsunamis: the number of deaths, amount of damage, maximum runup height, had a major impact on tsunami science or policy, etc. As a result, descriptions will include some of the most costly (2011 Tohoku, Japan), the most deadly (2004 Sumatra, 1883 Krakatau), and the highest runup ever observed (1958 Lituya Bay, Alaska). The discovery of the Cascadia subduction zone as the source of the 1700 Japanese "Orphan" tsunami and a future tsunami threat to the U.S. northwest coast, contributed to the decision to form the U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. The great Lisbon earthquake of 1755 marked the beginning of the modern era of seismology. Knowledge gained from the 1964 Alaska earthquake and tsunami helped confirm the theory of plate tectonics. The 1946 Alaska, 1952 Kuril Islands, 1960 Chile, 1964 Alaska, and the 2004 Banda Aceh, tsunamis all resulted in warning centers or systems being established.The data descriptions on this poster were extracted from NOAA's National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) global historical tsunami database. Additional information about these tsunamis, as well as water level data can be found by accessing the NGDC website www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/

  5. Generalized linear models with random effects unified analysis via H-likelihood

    CERN Document Server

    Lee, Youngjo; Pawitan, Yudi

    2006-01-01

    Since their introduction in 1972, generalized linear models (GLMs) have proven useful in the generalization of classical normal models. Presenting methods for fitting GLMs with random effects to data, Generalized Linear Models with Random Effects: Unified Analysis via H-likelihood explores a wide range of applications, including combining information over trials (meta-analysis), analysis of frailty models for survival data, genetic epidemiology, and analysis of spatial and temporal models with correlated errors.Written by pioneering authorities in the field, this reference provides an introduction to various theories and examines likelihood inference and GLMs. The authors show how to extend the class of GLMs while retaining as much simplicity as possible. By maximizing and deriving other quantities from h-likelihood, they also demonstrate how to use a single algorithm for all members of the class, resulting in a faster algorithm as compared to existing alternatives. Complementing theory with examples, many of...

  6. Maximum likelihood estimation and EM algorithm of Copas-like selection model for publication bias correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Jing; Chen, Yong; Piao, Jin

    2017-07-01

    Publication bias occurs when the published research results are systematically unrepresentative of the population of studies that have been conducted, and is a potential threat to meaningful meta-analysis. The Copas selection model provides a flexible framework for correcting estimates and offers considerable insight into the publication bias. However, maximizing the observed likelihood under the Copas selection model is challenging because the observed data contain very little information on the latent variable. In this article, we study a Copas-like selection model and propose an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for estimation based on the full likelihood. Empirical simulation studies show that the EM algorithm and its associated inferential procedure performs well and avoids the non-convergence problem when maximizing the observed likelihood. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Parallelization of maximum likelihood fits with OpenMP and CUDA

    CERN Document Server

    Jarp, S; Leduc, J; Nowak, A; Pantaleo, F

    2011-01-01

    Data analyses based on maximum likelihood fits are commonly used in the high energy physics community for fitting statistical models to data samples. This technique requires the numerical minimization of the negative log-likelihood function. MINUIT is the most common package used for this purpose in the high energy physics community. The main algorithm in this package, MIGRAD, searches the minimum by using the gradient information. The procedure requires several evaluations of the function, depending on the number of free parameters and their initial values. The whole procedure can be very CPU-time consuming in case of complex functions, with several free parameters, many independent variables and large data samples. Therefore, it becomes particularly important to speed-up the evaluation of the negative log-likelihood function. In this paper we present an algorithm and its implementation which benefits from data vectorization and parallelization (based on OpenMP) and which was also ported to Graphics Processi...

  8. Maximum likelihood positioning for gamma-ray imaging detectors with depth of interaction measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, Ch.W.; Ros, A.; Monzo, J.M.; Aliaga, R.J.; Ferrando, N.; Martinez, J.D.; Herrero, V.; Esteve, R.; Gadea, R.; Colom, R.J.; Toledo, J.; Mateo, F.; Sebastia, A.; Sanchez, F.; Benlloch, J.M.

    2009-01-01

    The center of gravity algorithm leads to strong artifacts for gamma-ray imaging detectors that are based on monolithic scintillation crystals and position sensitive photo-detectors. This is a consequence of using the centroids as position estimates. The fact that charge division circuits can also be used to compute the standard deviation of the scintillation light distribution opens a way out of this drawback. We studied the feasibility of maximum likelihood estimation for computing the true gamma-ray photo-conversion position from the centroids and the standard deviation of the light distribution. The method was evaluated on a test detector that consists of the position sensitive photomultiplier tube H8500 and a monolithic LSO crystal (42mmx42mmx10mm). Spatial resolution was measured for the centroids and the maximum likelihood estimates. The results suggest that the maximum likelihood positioning is feasible and partially removes the strong artifacts of the center of gravity algorithm.

  9. Maximum likelihood positioning for gamma-ray imaging detectors with depth of interaction measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerche, Ch.W. [Grupo de Sistemas Digitales, ITACA, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, 46022 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: lerche@ific.uv.es; Ros, A. [Grupo de Fisica Medica Nuclear, IFIC, Universidad de Valencia-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, 46980 Paterna (Spain); Monzo, J.M.; Aliaga, R.J.; Ferrando, N.; Martinez, J.D.; Herrero, V.; Esteve, R.; Gadea, R.; Colom, R.J.; Toledo, J.; Mateo, F.; Sebastia, A. [Grupo de Sistemas Digitales, ITACA, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, 46022 Valencia (Spain); Sanchez, F.; Benlloch, J.M. [Grupo de Fisica Medica Nuclear, IFIC, Universidad de Valencia-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Cientificas, 46980 Paterna (Spain)

    2009-06-01

    The center of gravity algorithm leads to strong artifacts for gamma-ray imaging detectors that are based on monolithic scintillation crystals and position sensitive photo-detectors. This is a consequence of using the centroids as position estimates. The fact that charge division circuits can also be used to compute the standard deviation of the scintillation light distribution opens a way out of this drawback. We studied the feasibility of maximum likelihood estimation for computing the true gamma-ray photo-conversion position from the centroids and the standard deviation of the light distribution. The method was evaluated on a test detector that consists of the position sensitive photomultiplier tube H8500 and a monolithic LSO crystal (42mmx42mmx10mm). Spatial resolution was measured for the centroids and the maximum likelihood estimates. The results suggest that the maximum likelihood positioning is feasible and partially removes the strong artifacts of the center of gravity algorithm.

  10. Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas Harder; Juul, Anders

    2004-01-01

    -like growth factor I was associated with ischemic heart disease. The study was based on a population of 3784 Danes and 231 cases of ischemic heart disease where controls were matched on age and gender. We illustrate the use of the MLE for these data and show how the maximum likelihood framework can be used......Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazards...... model. The MLE is computed by the EM-algorithm, which is easy to implement in the proportional hazards setting. Standard errors are estimated by a numerical profile likelihood approach based on EM aided differentiation. The work was motivated by a nested case-control study that hypothesized that insulin...

  11. Uncertainty about the true source. A note on the likelihood ratio at the activity level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taroni, Franco; Biedermann, Alex; Bozza, Silvia; Comte, Jennifer; Garbolino, Paolo

    2012-07-10

    This paper focuses on likelihood ratio based evaluations of fibre evidence in cases in which there is uncertainty about whether or not the reference item available for analysis - that is, an item typically taken from the suspect or seized at his home - is the item actually worn at the time of the offence. A likelihood ratio approach is proposed that, for situations in which certain categorical assumptions can be made about additionally introduced parameters, converges to formula described in existing literature. The properties of the proposed likelihood ratio approach are analysed through sensitivity analyses and discussed with respect to possible argumentative implications that arise in practice. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. LASER: A Maximum Likelihood Toolkit for Detecting Temporal Shifts in Diversification Rates From Molecular Phylogenies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel L. Rabosky

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Rates of species origination and extinction can vary over time during evolutionary radiations, and it is possible to reconstruct the history of diversification using molecular phylogenies of extant taxa only. Maximum likelihood methods provide a useful framework for inferring temporal variation in diversification rates. LASER is a package for the R programming environment that implements maximum likelihood methods based on the birth-death process to test whether diversification rates have changed over time. LASER contrasts the likelihood of phylogenetic data under models where diversification rates have changed over time to alternative models where rates have remained constant over time. Major strengths of the package include the ability to detect temporal increases in diversification rates and the inference of diversification parameters under multiple rate-variable models of diversification. The program and associated documentation are freely available from the R package archive at http://cran.r-project.org.

  13. Whose job instability affects the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy? A tale of two partners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Vignoli

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We examine the likelihood of becoming a parent in Italy taking into account the employment (instability of both partners in a couple. We use data from four waves of the Italian section of the EU-SILC (Statistics on Income and Living Condition, 2004-2007, accounting for its longitudinal nature. Overall, our results suggest that Italian couples are neither fully traditional nor entirely modern: the "first pillar" (i.e., a male partner with a stable and well-paid job is still crucial in directing fertility decisions, because, in our interpretation, it gives the household a feeling of (relative economic security. But this "old" family typology is becoming rare. Increasingly, both partners are employed, and in this case the characteristics of their employment prove important. A permanent occupation for both partners is associated with higher fertility, while alternative job typologies for either of the two depress fertility.

  14. Generalized Empirical Likelihood-Based Focused Information Criterion and Model Averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoya Sueishi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops model selection and averaging methods for moment restriction models. We first propose a focused information criterion based on the generalized empirical likelihood estimator. We address the issue of selecting an optimal model, rather than a correct model, for estimating a specific parameter of interest. Then, this study investigates a generalized empirical likelihood-based model averaging estimator that minimizes the asymptotic mean squared error. A simulation study suggests that our averaging estimator can be a useful alternative to existing post-selection estimators.

  15. Maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of nonminimum phase and noncausal ARMA models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Klaus Bolding

    1994-01-01

    The well-known prediction-error-based maximum likelihood (PEML) method can only handle minimum phase ARMA models. This paper presents a new method known as the back-filtering-based maximum likelihood (BFML) method, which can handle nonminimum phase and noncausal ARMA models. The BFML method...... is identical to the PEML method in the case of a minimum phase ARMA model, and it turns out that the BFML method incorporates a noncausal ARMA filter with poles outside the unit circle for estimation of the parameters of a causal, nonminimum phase ARMA model...

  16. Maximum likelihood estimation of the position of a radiating source in a waveguide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hinich, M.J.

    1979-01-01

    An array of sensors is receiving radiation from a source of interest. The source and the array are in a one- or two-dimensional waveguide. The maximum-likelihood estimators of the coordinates of the source are analyzed under the assumptions that the noise field is Gaussian. The Cramer-Rao lower bound is of the order of the number of modes which define the source excitation function. The results show that the accuracy of the maximum likelihood estimator of source depth using a vertical array in a infinite horizontal waveguide (such as the ocean) is limited by the number of modes detected by the array regardless of the array size

  17. A maximum pseudo-likelihood approach for estimating species trees under the coalescent model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edwards Scott V

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several phylogenetic approaches have been developed to estimate species trees from collections of gene trees. However, maximum likelihood approaches for estimating species trees under the coalescent model are limited. Although the likelihood of a species tree under the multispecies coalescent model has already been derived by Rannala and Yang, it can be shown that the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE of the species tree (topology, branch lengths, and population sizes from gene trees under this formula does not exist. In this paper, we develop a pseudo-likelihood function of the species tree to obtain maximum pseudo-likelihood estimates (MPE of species trees, with branch lengths of the species tree in coalescent units. Results We show that the MPE of the species tree is statistically consistent as the number M of genes goes to infinity. In addition, the probability that the MPE of the species tree matches the true species tree converges to 1 at rate O(M -1. The simulation results confirm that the maximum pseudo-likelihood approach is statistically consistent even when the species tree is in the anomaly zone. We applied our method, Maximum Pseudo-likelihood for Estimating Species Trees (MP-EST to a mammal dataset. The four major clades found in the MP-EST tree are consistent with those in the Bayesian concatenation tree. The bootstrap supports for the species tree estimated by the MP-EST method are more reasonable than the posterior probability supports given by the Bayesian concatenation method in reflecting the level of uncertainty in gene trees and controversies over the relationship of four major groups of placental mammals. Conclusions MP-EST can consistently estimate the topology and branch lengths (in coalescent units of the species tree. Although the pseudo-likelihood is derived from coalescent theory, and assumes no gene flow or horizontal gene transfer (HGT, the MP-EST method is robust to a small amount of HGT in the

  18. Regularization parameter selection methods for ill-posed Poisson maximum likelihood estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardsley, Johnathan M; Goldes, John

    2009-01-01

    In image processing applications, image intensity is often measured via the counting of incident photons emitted by the object of interest. In such cases, image data noise is accurately modeled by a Poisson distribution. This motivates the use of Poisson maximum likelihood estimation for image reconstruction. However, when the underlying model equation is ill-posed, regularization is needed. Regularized Poisson likelihood estimation has been studied extensively by the authors, though a problem of high importance remains: the choice of the regularization parameter. We will present three statistically motivated methods for choosing the regularization parameter, and numerical examples will be presented to illustrate their effectiveness

  19. Planck 2015 results: XI. CMB power spectra, likelihoods, and robustness of parameters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aghanim, N.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.

    2016-01-01

    on the same hybrid approach used for the previous release, i.e., a pixel-based likelihood at low multipoles (ℓ data and of Planck polarization......This paper presents the Planck 2015 likelihoods, statistical descriptions of the 2-point correlationfunctions of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) temperature and polarization fluctuations that account for relevant uncertainties, both instrumental and astrophysical in nature. They are based...... information, along with more detailed models of foregrounds and instrumental uncertainties. The increased redundancy brought by more than doubling the amount of data analysed enables further consistency checks and enhanced immunity to systematic effects. It also improves the constraining power of Planck...

  20. Average Likelihood Methods of Classification of Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    subject to code matrices that follows the structure given by (113). [⃗ yR y⃗I ] = √ Es 2L [ GR1 −GI1 GI2 GR2 ] [ QR −QI QI QR ] [⃗ bR b⃗I ] + [⃗ nR n⃗I... QR ] [⃗ b+ b⃗− ] + [⃗ n+ n⃗− ] (115) The average likelihood for type 4 CDMA (116) is a special case of type 1 CDMA with twice the code length and...AVERAGE LIKELIHOOD METHODS OF CLASSIFICATION OF CODE DIVISION MULTIPLE ACCESS (CDMA) MAY 2016 FINAL TECHNICAL REPORT APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

  1. Block Empirical Likelihood for Longitudinal Single-Index Varying-Coefficient Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunquan Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a single-index varying-coefficient model with application to longitudinal data. In order to accommodate the within-group correlation, we apply the block empirical likelihood procedure to longitudinal single-index varying-coefficient model, and prove a nonparametric version of Wilks’ theorem which can be used to construct the block empirical likelihood confidence region with asymptotically correct coverage probability for the parametric component. In comparison with normal approximations, the proposed method does not require a consistent estimator for the asymptotic covariance matrix, making it easier to conduct inference for the model's parametric component. Simulations demonstrate how the proposed method works.

  2. Does lying in the recovery position increase the likelihood of not delivering cardiopulmonary resuscitation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freire-Tellado, Miguel; Navarro-Patón, Rubén; Pavón-Prieto, Maria Del Pilar; Fernández-López, Marta; Mateos-Lorenzo, Javier; López-Fórneas, Ivan

    2017-06-01

    Resuscitation guidelines endorse unconscious and normally breathing out-of-hospital victims to be placed in the recovery position to secure airway patency, but recently a debate has been opened as to whether the recovery position threatens the cardiac arrest victim's safety assessment and delays the start of cardiopulmonary resuscitation. To compare the assessment of the victim's breathing arrest while placed in the recovery position versus maintaining an open airway with the continuous head tilt and chin lift technique to know whether the recovery position delays the cardiac arrest victim's assessment and the start of cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Basic life support-trained university students were randomly divided into two groups: one received a standardized cardiopulmonary resuscitation refresher course including the recovery position and the other received a modified cardiopulmonary resuscitation course using continuous head tilt and chin lift for unconscious and spontaneously breathing patients. A human simulation test to evaluate the victim's breathing assessment was performed a week later. In total, 59 participants with an average age of 21.9 years were included. Only 14 of 27 (51.85%) students in the recovery position group versus 23 of 28 (82.14%) in the head tilt and chin lift group p=0.006 (OR 6.571) detected breathing arrest within 2min. The recovery position hindered breathing assessment, delayed breathing arrest identification and the initiation of cardiac compressions, and significantly increased the likelihood of not starting cardiopulmonary resuscitation when compared to the results shown when the continuous head tilt and chin lift technique was used. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Assessing Correlation of Residency Applicants' Interview Dates With Likelihood of Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avasarala, Sameer; Thompson, Elizabeth; Whitehouse, Sarah; Drake, Sean

    2018-02-01

    This study aimed to determine whether the timing of an interview relative to the recruitment season was associated with being ranked or matched at an academic medical center. Eleven specialties (anesthesiology, diagnostic radiology, emergency medicine, family medicine, general surgery, internal medicine, neurology, neurosurgery, obstetrics-gynecology, orthopedic surgery, and psychiatry) that participated in the National Resident Matching Program were included in the study. Each program's total number of interview days during the October 2014-January 2015 interview season were divided equally into three interview time periods. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was used to evaluate associations among the three interview time periods (early, middle, and late) and interviewee outcomes (ranked or matched at our institution) for all subjects combined for each of the 11 programs and for specialty groups (medical, surgical, and hospital). Of 1034 applicants included in the analyses, 60% were men. Most were graduated from US medical schools (59.8%; a total of 103 applicants obtained first-year training positions through the Match [95.4% combined fill rate]). Twenty-nine interviewed early, 38 in the middle, and 36 in the late period ( P = 0.3877). A total of 864 applicants were ranked by 1 of the 11 residency programs at the study site: 267 in the early period, 319 in the middle, and 278 in the late period ( P = 0.4184). Being ranked in association with specialty classification also showed no significant differences. Interview timing had no relation to the likelihood of a match or being ranked by 1 of the 11 programs studied at our institution. These findings help dispel misconceptions about the importance of the interview date for a successful match.

  4. Optimal likelihood-based matching of volcanic sources and deposits in the Auckland Volcanic Field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawabata, Emily; Bebbington, Mark S.; Cronin, Shane J.; Wang, Ting

    2016-09-01

    In monogenetic volcanic fields, where each eruption forms a new volcano, focusing and migration of activity over time is a very real possibility. In order for hazard estimates to reflect future, rather than past, behavior, it is vital to assemble as much reliable age data as possible on past eruptions. Multiple swamp/lake records have been extracted from the Auckland Volcanic Field, underlying the 1.4 million-population city of Auckland. We examine here the problem of matching these dated deposits to the volcanoes that produced them. The simplest issue is separation in time, which is handled by simulating prior volcano age sequences from direct dates where known, thinned via ordering constraints between the volcanoes. The subproblem of varying deposition thicknesses (which may be zero) at five locations of known distance and azimuth is quantified using a statistical attenuation model for the volcanic ash thickness. These elements are combined with other constraints, from widespread fingerprinted ash layers that separate eruptions and time-censoring of the records, into a likelihood that was optimized via linear programming. A second linear program was used to optimize over the Monte-Carlo simulated set of prior age profiles to determine the best overall match and consequent volcano age assignments. Considering all 20 matches, and the multiple factors of age, direction, and size/distance simultaneously, results in some non-intuitive assignments which would not be produced by single factor analyses. Compared with earlier work, the results provide better age control on a number of smaller centers such as Little Rangitoto, Otuataua, Taylors Hill, Wiri Mountain, Green Hill, Otara Hill, Hampton Park and Mt Cambria. Spatio-temporal hazard estimates are updated on the basis of the new ordering, which suggest that the scale of the 'flare-up' around 30 ka, while still highly significant, was less than previously thought.

  5. A comparison of likelihood ratio tests and Rao's score test for three separable covariance matrix structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filipiak, Katarzyna; Klein, Daniel; Roy, Anuradha

    2017-01-01

    The problem of testing the separability of a covariance matrix against an unstructured variance-covariance matrix is studied in the context of multivariate repeated measures data using Rao's score test (RST). The RST statistic is developed with the first component of the separable structure as a first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) correlation matrix or an unstructured (UN) covariance matrix under the assumption of multivariate normality. It is shown that the distribution of the RST statistic under the null hypothesis of any separability does not depend on the true values of the mean or the unstructured components of the separable structure. A significant advantage of the RST is that it can be performed for small samples, even smaller than the dimension of the data, where the likelihood ratio test (LRT) cannot be used, and it outperforms the standard LRT in a number of contexts. Monte Carlo simulations are then used to study the comparative behavior of the null distribution of the RST statistic, as well as that of the LRT statistic, in terms of sample size considerations, and for the estimation of the empirical percentiles. Our findings are compared with existing results where the first component of the separable structure is a compound symmetry (CS) correlation matrix. It is also shown by simulations that the empirical null distribution of the RST statistic converges faster than the empirical null distribution of the LRT statistic to the limiting χ 2 distribution. The tests are implemented on a real dataset from medical studies. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  6. Likelihood analysis of the chalcone synthase genes suggests the role of positive selection in morning glories (Ipomoea).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ji; Gu, Hongya; Yang, Ziheng

    2004-01-01

    Chalcone synthase (CHS) is a key enzyme in the biosynthesis of flavonoides, which are important for the pigmentation of flowers and act as attractants to pollinators. Genes encoding CHS constitute a multigene family in which the copy number varies among plant species and functional divergence appears to have occurred repeatedly. In morning glories (Ipomoea), five functional CHS genes (A-E) have been described. Phylogenetic analysis of the Ipomoea CHS gene family revealed that CHS A, B, and C experienced accelerated rates of amino acid substitution relative to CHS D and E. To examine whether the CHS genes of the morning glories underwent adaptive evolution, maximum-likelihood models of codon substitution were used to analyze the functional sequences in the Ipomoea CHS gene family. These models used the nonsynonymous/synonymous rate ratio (omega = d(N)/ d(S)) as an indicator of selective pressure and allowed the ratio to vary among lineages or sites. Likelihood ratio test suggested significant variation in selection pressure among amino acid sites, with a small proportion of them detected to be under positive selection along the branches ancestral to CHS A, B, and C. Positive Darwinian selection appears to have promoted the divergence of subfamily ABC and subfamily DE and is at least partially responsible for a rate increase following gene duplication.

  7. ReplacementMatrix: a web server for maximum-likelihood estimation of amino acid replacement rate matrices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dang, Cuong Cao; Lefort, Vincent; Le, Vinh Sy; Le, Quang Si; Gascuel, Olivier

    2011-10-01

    Amino acid replacement rate matrices are an essential basis of protein studies (e.g. in phylogenetics and alignment). A number of general purpose matrices have been proposed (e.g. JTT, WAG, LG) since the seminal work of Margaret Dayhoff and co-workers. However, it has been shown that matrices specific to certain protein groups (e.g. mitochondrial) or life domains (e.g. viruses) differ significantly from general average matrices, and thus perform better when applied to the data to which they are dedicated. This Web server implements the maximum-likelihood estimation procedure that was used to estimate LG, and provides a number of tools and facilities. Users upload a set of multiple protein alignments from their domain of interest and receive the resulting matrix by email, along with statistics and comparisons with other matrices. A non-parametric bootstrap is performed optionally to assess the variability of replacement rate estimates. Maximum-likelihood trees, inferred using the estimated rate matrix, are also computed optionally for each input alignment. Finely tuned procedures and up-to-date ML software (PhyML 3.0, XRATE) are combined to perform all these heavy calculations on our clusters. http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/ReplacementMatrix/ olivier.gascuel@lirmm.fr Supplementary data are available at http://www.atgc-montpellier.fr/ReplacementMatrix/

  8. Influence of population size, density, and proximity to talent clubs on the likelihood of becoming elite youth athlete.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossing, N N; Stentoft, D; Flattum, A; Côté, J; Karbing, D S

    2018-03-01

    Previous studies have found significant differences in the likelihood of becoming an elite athlete depending on community population sizes and densities, an effect known as the place of early development, or birthplace effect. However, the results have not been consistent between sports or European countries. As both professional and voluntary clubs are vital to the talent development systems in Europe, the proximity of an athlete's place of early development to the location of talent clubs may be an important predictor of the likelihood of becoming an elite athlete. Therefore, the primary purpose of this study was to investigate the place of early development effect and the effect of proximity to talent clubs. The samples included elite youth league athletes (579 football and 311 handball) and national youth athletes (85 football and 80 handball) and a comparison group of 147 221 football and 26 290 handball youth athletes. Odds ratios showed variations in the optimal community size and density across sports. Geospatial analyses of proximity to talent clubs highlighted a trend indicating that most national and elite youth league athletes in both sports had their place of early development in their sport near a talent club. The results suggest that proximity is an important predictor in the development of expertise across sports, but future studies need to clarify if proximity is important in other countries and sports. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Safety significance evaluation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lew, B.S.; Yee, D.; Brewer, W.K.; Quattro, P.J.; Kirby, K.D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper reports that the Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG and E), in cooperation with ABZ, Incorporated and Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), investigated the use of artificial intelligence-based programming techniques to assist utility personnel in regulatory compliance problems. The result of this investigation is that artificial intelligence-based programming techniques can successfully be applied to this problem. To demonstrate this, a general methodology was developed and several prototype systems based on this methodology were developed. The prototypes address U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) event reportability requirements, technical specification compliance based on plant equipment status, and quality assurance assistance. This collection of prototype modules is named the safety significance evaluation system

  10. Predicting significant torso trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nirula, Ram; Talmor, Daniel; Brasel, Karen

    2005-07-01

    Identification of motor vehicle crash (MVC) characteristics associated with thoracoabdominal injury would advance the development of automatic crash notification systems (ACNS) by improving triage and response times. Our objective was to determine the relationships between MVC characteristics and thoracoabdominal trauma to develop a torso injury probability model. Drivers involved in crashes from 1993 to 2001 within the National Automotive Sampling System were reviewed. Relationships between torso injury and MVC characteristics were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the model to current ACNS models. There were a total of 56,466 drivers. Age, ejection, braking, avoidance, velocity, restraints, passenger-side impact, rollover, and vehicle weight and type were associated with injury (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (83.9) was significantly greater than current ACNS models. We have developed a thoracoabdominal injury probability model that may improve patient triage when used with ACNS.

  11. Gas revenue increasingly significant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Megill, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    This paper briefly describes the wellhead prices of natural gas compared to crude oil over the past 70 years. Although natural gas prices have never reached price parity with crude oil, the relative value of a gas BTU has been increasing. It is one of the reasons that the total amount of money coming from natural gas wells is becoming more significant. From 1920 to 1955 the revenue at the wellhead for natural gas was only about 10% of the money received by producers. Most of the money needed for exploration, development, and production came from crude oil. At present, however, over 40% of the money from the upstream portion of the petroleum industry is from natural gas. As a result, in a few short years natural gas may become 50% of the money revenues generated from wellhead production facilities

  12. Tumor significant dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Supe, S.J.; Nagalaxmi, K.V.; Meenakshi, L.

    1983-01-01

    In the practice of radiotherapy, various concepts like NSD, CRE, TDF, and BIR are being used to evaluate the biological effectiveness of the treatment schedules on the normal tissues. This has been accepted as the tolerance of the normal tissue is the limiting factor in the treatment of cancers. At present when various schedules are tried, attention is therefore paid to the biological damage of the normal tissues only and it is expected that the damage to the cancerous tissues would be extensive enough to control the cancer. Attempt is made in the present work to evaluate the concent of tumor significant dose (TSD) which will represent the damage to the cancerous tissue. Strandquist in the analysis of a large number of cases of squamous cell carcinoma found that for the 5 fraction/week treatment, the total dose required to bring about the same damage for the cancerous tissue is proportional to T/sup -0.22/, where T is the overall time over which the dose is delivered. Using this finding the TSD was defined as DxN/sup -p/xT/sup -q/, where D is the total dose, N the number of fractions, T the overall time p and q are the exponents to be suitably chosen. The values of p and q are adjusted such that p+q< or =0.24, and p varies from 0.0 to 0.24 and q varies from 0.0 to 0.22. Cases of cancer of cervix uteri treated between 1978 and 1980 in the V. N. Cancer Centre, Kuppuswamy Naidu Memorial Hospital, Coimbatore, India were analyzed on the basis of these formulations. These data, coupled with the clinical experience, were used for choice of a formula for the TSD. Further, the dose schedules used in the British Institute of Radiology fraction- ation studies were also used to propose that the tumor significant dose is represented by DxN/sup -0.18/xT/sup -0.06/

  13. Uranium chemistry: significant advances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzanti, M.

    2011-01-01

    The author reviews recent progress in uranium chemistry achieved in CEA laboratories. Like its neighbors in the Mendeleev chart uranium undergoes hydrolysis, oxidation and disproportionation reactions which make the chemistry of these species in water highly complex. The study of the chemistry of uranium in an anhydrous medium has led to correlate the structural and electronic differences observed in the interaction of uranium(III) and the lanthanides(III) with nitrogen or sulfur molecules and the effectiveness of these molecules in An(III)/Ln(III) separation via liquid-liquid extraction. Recent work on the redox reactivity of trivalent uranium U(III) in an organic medium with molecules such as water or an azide ion (N 3 - ) in stoichiometric quantities, led to extremely interesting uranium aggregates particular those involved in actinide migration in the environment or in aggregation problems in the fuel processing cycle. Another significant advance was the discovery of a compound containing the uranyl ion with a degree of oxidation (V) UO 2 + , obtained by oxidation of uranium(III). Recently chemists have succeeded in blocking the disproportionation reaction of uranyl(V) and in stabilizing polymetallic complexes of uranyl(V), opening the way to to a systematic study of the reactivity and the electronic and magnetic properties of uranyl(V) compounds. (A.C.)

  14. Meaning and significance of

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ph D Student Roman Mihaela

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The concept of "public accountability" is a challenge for political science as a new concept in this area in full debate and developement ,both in theory and practice. This paper is a theoretical approach of displaying some definitions, relevant meanings and significance odf the concept in political science. The importance of this concept is that although originally it was used as a tool to improve effectiveness and eficiency of public governance, it has gradually become a purpose it itself. "Accountability" has become an image of good governance first in the United States of America then in the European Union.Nevertheless,the concept is vaguely defined and provides ambiguous images of good governance.This paper begins with the presentation of some general meanings of the concept as they emerge from specialized dictionaries and ancyclopaedies and continues with the meanings developed in political science. The concept of "public accontability" is rooted in economics and management literature,becoming increasingly relevant in today's political science both in theory and discourse as well as in practice in formulating and evaluating public policies. A first conclusin that emerges from, the analysis of the evolution of this term is that it requires a conceptual clarification in political science. A clear definition will then enable an appropriate model of proving the system of public accountability in formulating and assessing public policies, in order to implement a system of assessment and monitoring thereof.

  15. Derivation of LDA log likelihood ratio one-to-one classifier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spreeuwers, Lieuwe Jan

    2014-01-01

    The common expression for the Likelihood Ratio classifier using LDA assumes that the reference class mean is available. In biometrics, this is often not the case and only a single sample of the reference class is available. In this paper expressions are derived for biometric comparison between

  16. Comparison of IRT Likelihood Ratio Test and Logistic Regression DIF Detection Procedures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atar, Burcu; Kamata, Akihito

    2011-01-01

    The Type I error rates and the power of IRT likelihood ratio test and cumulative logit ordinal logistic regression procedures in detecting differential item functioning (DIF) for polytomously scored items were investigated in this Monte Carlo simulation study. For this purpose, 54 simulation conditions (combinations of 3 sample sizes, 2 sample…

  17. Maximum likelihood estimation of ancestral codon usage bias parameters in Drosophila

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Rasmus; Bauer DuMont, Vanessa L; Hubisz, Melissa J

    2007-01-01

    : the selection coefficient for optimal codon usage (S), allowing joint maximum likelihood estimation of S and the dN/dS ratio. We apply the method to previously published data from Drosophila melanogaster, Drosophila simulans, and Drosophila yakuba and show, in accordance with previous results, that the D...

  18. Robust Biometric Score Fusion by Naive Likelihood Ratio via Receiver Operating Characteristics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tao, Q.; Veldhuis, Raymond N.J.

    This paper presents a novel method of fusing multiple biometrics on the matching score level. We estimate the likelihood ratios of the fused biometric scores, via individual receiver operating characteristics (ROC) which construct the Naive Bayes classifier. Using a limited number of operation

  19. Epilepsy and Intellectual Disability: Does Epilepsy Increase the Likelihood of Co-Morbid Psychopathology?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshad, Saadia; Winterhalder, Robert; Underwood, Lisa; Kelesidi, Katerina; Chaplin, Eddie; Kravariti, Eugenia; Anagnostopoulos, Dimitrios; Bouras, Nick; McCarthy, Jane; Tsakanikos, Elias

    2011-01-01

    Although epilepsy is particularly common among people with intellectual disability (ID) it remains unclear whether it is associated with an increased likelihood of co-morbid psychopathology. We therefore investigated rates of mental health problems and other clinical characteristics in patients with ID and epilepsy (N=156) as compared to patients…

  20. Heterogeneity in the Likelihood of Market Advisory Service Use by U.S. Crop Producers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Irwin, S.; Good, D.; Isengildina, O.

    2005-01-01

    Abstract Analysis of a unique data set of 1,400 U.S. crop producers using a mixture-modeling framework shows that the likelihood of Marketing Advisory Services (MAS) use is, among others, driven by the perceived performance of MAS in terms of return and risk reduction, the match between the MAS and

  1. The Influence of criminal history on the likelihood of committing lethal versus nonlethal violence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ganpat, Soenita M.; Liem, Marieke; van der Leun, Joanne; Nieuwbeerta, Paul

    2014-01-01

    This study focuses on the criminal history of serious violent offenders. Our aim is to determine: (a) to what extent the criminal history of lethally violent offenders differs from nonlethally violent offenders and (b) to what extent one's criminal history influences the likelihood that violence

  2. Application of the Method of Maximum Likelihood to Identification of Bipedal Walking Robots

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dolinský, Kamil; Čelikovský, Sergej

    (2017) ISSN 1063-6536 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA17-04682S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Control * identification * maximum likelihood (ML) * walking robots Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 3.882, year: 2016 http://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/7954032/

  3. Seasonal species interactions minimize the impact of species turnover on the likelihood of community persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saavedra, Serguei; Rohr, Rudolf P; Fortuna, Miguel A; Selva, Nuria; Bascompte, Jordi

    2016-04-01

    Many of the observed species interactions embedded in ecological communities are not permanent, but are characterized by temporal changes that are observed along with abiotic and biotic variations. While work has been done describing and quantifying these changes, little is known about their consequences for species coexistence. Here, we investigate the extent to which changes of species composition impact the likelihood of persistence of the predator-prey community in the highly seasonal Białowieza Primeval Forest (northeast Poland), and the extent to which seasonal changes of species interactions (predator diet) modulate the expected impact. This likelihood is estimated extending recent developments on the study of structural stability in ecological communities. We find that the observed species turnover strongly varies the likelihood of community persistence between summer and winter. Importantly, we demonstrate that the observed seasonal interaction changes minimize the variation in the likelihood of persistence associated with species turnover across the year. We find that these community dynamics can be explained as the coupling of individual species to their environment by minimizing both the variation in persistence conditions and the interaction changes between seasons. Our results provide a homeostatic explanation for seasonal species interactions and suggest that monitoring the association of interactions changes with the level of variation in community dynamics can provide a good indicator of the response of species to environmental pressures.

  4. The Likelihood of Parent-Adult Child Coresidence: Effects of Family Structure and Parental Characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aquilino, William S.

    1990-01-01

    Estimated influence of child, parent, and family structural characteristics on likelihood of parents having coresident adult child, based on national sample of 4,893 parents. Results indicated most parents maintained own households and most parents and adult children who coresided lived in parents' home. Family structure was found to exert strong…

  5. Outlier identification procedures for contingency tables using maximum likelihood and $L_1$ estimates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuhnt, S.

    2004-01-01

    Observed cell counts in contingency tables are perceived as outliers if they have low probability under an anticipated loglinear Poisson model. New procedures for the identification of such outliers are derived using the classical maximum likelihood estimator and an estimator based on the L1 norm.

  6. An Iterative Maximum a Posteriori Estimation of Proficiency Level to Detect Multiple Local Likelihood Maxima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magis, David; Raiche, Gilles

    2010-01-01

    In this article the authors focus on the issue of the nonuniqueness of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator of proficiency level in item response theory (with special attention to logistic models). The usual maximum a posteriori (MAP) method offers a good alternative within that framework; however, this article highlights some drawbacks of its…

  7. HLIBCov: Parallel Hierarchical Matrix Approximation of Large Covariance Matrices and Likelihoods with Applications in Parameter Identification

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    and maximizing likelihood functions. We show that an approximate Cholesky factorization of a dense matrix of size $2M\\times 2M$ can be computed on a modern multi-core desktop in few minutes. Further, HLIBCov is used for estimating the unknown parameters

  8. Validation of software for calculating the likelihood ratio for parentage and kinship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drábek, J

    2009-03-01

    Although the likelihood ratio is a well-known statistical technique, commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software products for its calculation are not sufficiently validated to suit general requirements for the competence of testing and calibration laboratories (EN/ISO/IEC 17025:2005 norm) per se. The software in question can be considered critical as it directly weighs the forensic evidence allowing judges to decide on guilt or innocence or to identify person or kin (i.e.: in mass fatalities). For these reasons, accredited laboratories shall validate likelihood ratio software in accordance with the above norm. To validate software for calculating the likelihood ratio in parentage/kinship scenarios I assessed available vendors, chose two programs (Paternity Index and familias) for testing, and finally validated them using tests derived from elaboration of the available guidelines for the field of forensics, biomedicine, and software engineering. MS Excel calculation using known likelihood ratio formulas or peer-reviewed results of difficult paternity cases were used as a reference. Using seven testing cases, it was found that both programs satisfied the requirements for basic paternity cases. However, only a combination of two software programs fulfills the criteria needed for our purpose in the whole spectrum of functions under validation with the exceptions of providing algebraic formulas in cases of mutation and/or silent allele.

  9. Comparison of standard maximum likelihood classification and polytomous logistic regression used in remote sensing

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Hogland; Nedret Billor; Nathaniel Anderson

    2013-01-01

    Discriminant analysis, referred to as maximum likelihood classification within popular remote sensing software packages, is a common supervised technique used by analysts. Polytomous logistic regression (PLR), also referred to as multinomial logistic regression, is an alternative classification approach that is less restrictive, more flexible, and easy to interpret. To...

  10. Predicting the Likelihood of Going to Graduate School: The Importance of Locus of Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordstrom, Cynthia R.; Segrist, Dan J.

    2009-01-01

    Although many undergraduates apply to graduate school, only a fraction will be admitted. A question arises as to what factors relate to the likelihood of pursuing graduate studies. The current research examined this question by surveying students in a Careers in Psychology course. We hypothesized that GPA, a more internal locus of control…

  11. Experimental demonstration of the maximum likelihood-based chromatic dispersion estimator for coherent receivers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borkowski, Robert; Johannisson, Pontus; Wymeersch, Henk

    2014-01-01

    We perform an experimental investigation of a maximum likelihood-based (ML-based) algorithm for bulk chromatic dispersion estimation for digital coherent receivers operating in uncompensated optical networks. We demonstrate the robustness of the method at low optical signal-to-noise ratio (OSNR...

  12. The gap between fatherhood and couplehood desires among Israeli gay men and estimations of their likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenkman, Geva

    2012-10-01

    This study examined the frequencies of the desires and likelihood estimations of Israeli gay men regarding fatherhood and couplehood, using a sample of 183 gay men aged 19-50. It follows previous research which indicated the existence of a gap in the United States with respect to fatherhood, and called for generalizability examinations in other countries and the exploration of possible explanations. As predicted, a gap was also found in Israel between fatherhood desires and their likelihood estimations, as well as between couplehood desires and their likelihood estimations. In addition, lower estimations of fatherhood likelihood were found to predict depression and to correlate with decreased subjective well-being. Possible psychosocial explanations are offered. Moreover, by mapping attitudes toward fatherhood and couplehood among Israeli gay men, the current study helps to extend our knowledge of several central human development motivations and their correlations with depression and subjective well-being in a less-studied sexual minority in a complex cultural climate. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved).

  13. Cox regression with missing covariate data using a modified partial likelihood method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Holst, Klaus K.; Scheike, Thomas H.

    2016-01-01

    Missing covariate values is a common problem in survival analysis. In this paper we propose a novel method for the Cox regression model that is close to maximum likelihood but avoids the use of the EM-algorithm. It exploits that the observed hazard function is multiplicative in the baseline hazard...

  14. IRT Item Parameter Recovery with Marginal Maximum Likelihood Estimation Using Loglinear Smoothing Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lewis, Charles

    2015-01-01

    Loglinear smoothing (LLS) estimates the latent trait distribution while making fewer assumptions about its form and maintaining parsimony, thus leading to more precise item response theory (IRT) item parameter estimates than standard marginal maximum likelihood (MML). This article provides the expectation-maximization algorithm for MML estimation…

  15. Validation of Likelihood Ratio Methods Used for Forensic Evidence Evaluation: Application in Forensic Fingerprints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haraksim, Rudolf

    2014-01-01

    In this chapter the Likelihood Ratio (LR) inference model will be introduced, the theoretical aspects of probabilities will be discussed and the validation framework for LR methods used for forensic evidence evaluation will be presented. Prior to introducing the validation framework, following

  16. How groups contest depends on group power and the likelihood that power determines victory and defeat

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamans, Elanor; Otten, Sabine; Gordijn, Ernestine H.; Spears, Russell

    2010-01-01

    The aim of the current study was to show that the type of conflict behavior (constructive vs. unconstructive) groups use in conflicts depends on their power position as well as the likelihood that power determines victory and defeat. In an alleged online debate, we created a conflict between two

  17. The skewed weak lensing likelihood: why biases arise, despite data and theory being sound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sellentin, Elena; Heymans, Catherine; Harnois-Déraps, Joachim

    2018-04-01

    We derive the essentials of the skewed weak lensing likelihood via a simple Hierarchical Forward Model. Our likelihood passes four objective and cosmology-independent tests which a standard Gaussian likelihood fails. We demonstrate that sound weak lensing data are naturally biased low, since they are drawn from a skewed distribution. This occurs already in the framework of ΛCDM. Mathematically, the biases arise because noisy two-point functions follow skewed distributions. This form of bias is already known from CMB analyses, where the low multipoles have asymmetric error bars. Weak lensing is more strongly affected by this asymmetry as galaxies form a discrete set of shear tracer particles, in contrast to a smooth shear field. We demonstrate that the biases can be up to 30% of the standard deviation per data point, dependent on the properties of the weak lensing survey and the employed filter function. Our likelihood provides a versatile framework with which to address this bias in future weak lensing analyses.

  18. Validation of DNA-based identification software by computation of pedigree likelihood ratios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slooten, K

    2011-08-01

    Disaster victim identification (DVI) can be aided by DNA-evidence, by comparing the DNA-profiles of unidentified individuals with those of surviving relatives. The DNA-evidence is used optimally when such a comparison is done by calculating the appropriate likelihood ratios. Though conceptually simple, the calculations can be quite involved, especially with large pedigrees, precise mutation models etc. In this article we describe a series of test cases designed to check if software designed to calculate such likelihood ratios computes them correctly. The cases include both simple and more complicated pedigrees, among which inbred ones. We show how to calculate the likelihood ratio numerically and algebraically, including a general mutation model and possibility of allelic dropout. In Appendix A we show how to derive such algebraic expressions mathematically. We have set up these cases to validate new software, called Bonaparte, which performs pedigree likelihood ratio calculations in a DVI context. Bonaparte has been developed by SNN Nijmegen (The Netherlands) for the Netherlands Forensic Institute (NFI). It is available free of charge for non-commercial purposes (see www.dnadvi.nl for details). Commercial licenses can also be obtained. The software uses Bayesian networks and the junction tree algorithm to perform its calculations. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Validation of DNA-based identification software by computation of pedigree likelihood ratios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slooten, K.

    Disaster victim identification (DVI) can be aided by DNA-evidence, by comparing the DNA-profiles of unidentified individuals with those of surviving relatives. The DNA-evidence is used optimally when such a comparison is done by calculating the appropriate likelihood ratios. Though conceptually

  20. ldr: An R Software Package for Likelihood-Based Su?cient Dimension Reduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kofi Placid Adragni

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available In regression settings, a su?cient dimension reduction (SDR method seeks the core information in a p-vector predictor that completely captures its relationship with a response. The reduced predictor may reside in a lower dimension d < p, improving ability to visualize data and predict future observations, and mitigating dimensionality issues when carrying out further analysis. We introduce ldr, a new R software package that implements three recently proposed likelihood-based methods for SDR: covariance reduction, likelihood acquired directions, and principal fitted components. All three methods reduce the dimensionality of the data by pro jection into lower dimensional subspaces. The package also implements a variable screening method built upon principal ?tted components which makes use of ?exible basis functions to capture the dependencies between the predictors and the response. Examples are given to demonstrate likelihood-based SDR analyses using ldr, including estimation of the dimension of reduction subspaces and selection of basis functions. The ldr package provides a framework that we hope to grow into a comprehensive library of likelihood-based SDR methodologies.

  1. A simple route to maximum-likelihood estimates of two-locus

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Genetics; Volume 94; Issue 3. A simple route to maximum-likelihood estimates of two-locus recombination fractions under inequality restrictions. Iain L. Macdonald Philasande Nkalashe. Research Note Volume 94 Issue 3 September 2015 pp 479-481 ...

  2. Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Generalized Long-Memory Time Series Models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mesters, G.; Koopman, S.J.; Ooms, M.

    2016-01-01

    An exact maximum likelihood method is developed for the estimation of parameters in a non-Gaussian nonlinear density function that depends on a latent Gaussian dynamic process with long-memory properties. Our method relies on the method of importance sampling and on a linear Gaussian approximating

  3. A Composite Likelihood Inference in Latent Variable Models for Ordinal Longitudinal Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasdekis, Vassilis G. S.; Cagnone, Silvia; Moustaki, Irini

    2012-01-01

    The paper proposes a composite likelihood estimation approach that uses bivariate instead of multivariate marginal probabilities for ordinal longitudinal responses using a latent variable model. The model considers time-dependent latent variables and item-specific random effects to be accountable for the interdependencies of the multivariate…

  4. Estimation of stochastic frontier models with fixed-effects through Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Emvalomatis, G.; Stefanou, S.E.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of nonlinear fixed-effects models is plagued by the incidental parameters problem. This paper proposes a procedure for choosing appropriate densities for integrating the incidental parameters from the likelihood function in a general context. The densities are based on priors that are

  5. Maximum likelihood estimation for Cox's regression model under nested case-control sampling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Juul, Anders

    2004-01-01

    Nested case-control sampling is designed to reduce the costs of large cohort studies. It is important to estimate the parameters of interest as efficiently as possible. We present a new maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for nested case-control sampling in the context of Cox's proportional hazard...

  6. Applying a Weighted Maximum Likelihood Latent Trait Estimator to the Generalized Partial Credit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penfield, Randall D.; Bergeron, Jennifer M.

    2005-01-01

    This article applies a weighted maximum likelihood (WML) latent trait estimator to the generalized partial credit model (GPCM). The relevant equations required to obtain the WML estimator using the Newton-Raphson algorithm are presented, and a simulation study is described that compared the properties of the WML estimator to those of the maximum…

  7. Maximum Likelihood Dynamic Factor Modeling for Arbitrary "N" and "T" Using SEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voelkle, Manuel C.; Oud, Johan H. L.; von Oertzen, Timo; Lindenberger, Ulman

    2012-01-01

    This article has 3 objectives that build on each other. First, we demonstrate how to obtain maximum likelihood estimates for dynamic factor models (the direct autoregressive factor score model) with arbitrary "T" and "N" by means of structural equation modeling (SEM) and compare the approach to existing methods. Second, we go beyond standard time…

  8. Prospective Teachers' Likelihood of Performing Unethical Behaviors in the Real and Virtual Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akdemir, Ömür; Vural, Ömer F.; Çolakoglu, Özgür M.

    2015-01-01

    Individuals act different in virtual environment than real life. The primary purpose of this study is to investigate the prospective teachers' likelihood of performing unethical behaviors in the real and virtual environments. Prospective teachers are surveyed online and their perceptions have been collected for various scenarios. Findings revealed…

  9. ATTITUDE-CHANGE FOLLOWING PERSUASIVE COMMUNICATION - INTEGRATING SOCIAL JUDGMENT THEORY AND THE ELABORATION LIKELIHOOD MODEL

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    SIERO, FW; DOOSJE, BJ

    1993-01-01

    An experiment was conducted to examine the influence of the perceived extremity of a message and motivation to elaborate upon the process of persuasion. The first goal was to test a model of attitude change relating Social Judgment Theory to the Elaboration Likelihood Model. The second objective was

  10. Source and Message Factors in Persuasion: A Reply to Stiff's Critique of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, Richard E.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Answers James Stiff's criticism of the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion. Corrects certain misperceptions of the ELM and criticizes Stiff's meta-analysis that compares ELM predictions with those derived from Kahneman's elastic capacity model. Argues that Stiff's presentation of the ELM and the conclusions he draws based on the data…

  11. The Elaboration Likelihood Model: Implications for the Practice of School Psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petty, Richard E.; Heesacker, Martin; Hughes, Jan N.

    1997-01-01

    Reviews a contemporary theory of attitude change, the Elaboration Likelihood Model (ELM) of persuasion, and addresses its relevance to school psychology. Claims that a key postulate of ELM is that attitude change results from thoughtful (central route) or nonthoughtful (peripheral route) processes. Illustrations of ELM's utility for school…

  12. Examining Sex Differences in Altering Attitudes About Rape: A Test of the Elaboration Likelihood Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heppner, Mary J.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Intervention sought to improve first-year college students' attitudes about rape. Used the Elaboration Likelihood Model to examine men's and women's attitude change process. Found numerous sex differences in ways men and women experienced and changed during and after intervention. Women's attitude showed more lasting change while men's was more…

  13. The Elaboration Likelihood Model and Proxemic Violations as Peripheral Cues to Information Processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eaves, Michael

    This paper provides a literature review of the elaboration likelihood model (ELM) as applied in persuasion. Specifically, the paper addresses distraction with regard to effects on persuasion. In addition, the application of proxemic violations as peripheral cues in message processing is discussed. Finally, the paper proposes to shed new light on…

  14. Fast maximum likelihood estimation of mutation rates using a birth-death process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaowei; Zhu, Hongxiao

    2015-02-07

    Since fluctuation analysis was first introduced by Luria and Delbrück in 1943, it has been widely used to make inference about spontaneous mutation rates in cultured cells. Under certain model assumptions, the probability distribution of the number of mutants that appear in a fluctuation experiment can be derived explicitly, which provides the basis of mutation rate estimation. It has been shown that, among various existing estimators, the maximum likelihood estimator usually demonstrates some desirable properties such as consistency and lower mean squared error. However, its application in real experimental data is often hindered by slow computation of likelihood due to the recursive form of the mutant-count distribution. We propose a fast maximum likelihood estimator of mutation rates, MLE-BD, based on a birth-death process model with non-differential growth assumption. Simulation studies demonstrate that, compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimator derived from the Luria-Delbrück distribution, MLE-BD achieves substantial improvement on computational speed and is applicable to arbitrarily large number of mutants. In addition, it still retains good accuracy on point estimation. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  15. Assessing compatibility of direct detection data: halo-independent global likelihood analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gelmini, Graciela B. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA,475 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States); Huh, Ji-Haeng [CERN Theory Division,CH-1211, Geneva 23 (Switzerland); Witte, Samuel J. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA,475 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095 (United States)

    2016-10-18

    We present two different halo-independent methods to assess the compatibility of several direct dark matter detection data sets for a given dark matter model using a global likelihood consisting of at least one extended likelihood and an arbitrary number of Gaussian or Poisson likelihoods. In the first method we find the global best fit halo function (we prove that it is a unique piecewise constant function with a number of down steps smaller than or equal to a maximum number that we compute) and construct a two-sided pointwise confidence band at any desired confidence level, which can then be compared with those derived from the extended likelihood alone to assess the joint compatibility of the data. In the second method we define a “constrained parameter goodness-of-fit” test statistic, whose p-value we then use to define a “plausibility region” (e.g. where p≥10%). For any halo function not entirely contained within the plausibility region, the level of compatibility of the data is very low (e.g. p<10%). We illustrate these methods by applying them to CDMS-II-Si and SuperCDMS data, assuming dark matter particles with elastic spin-independent isospin-conserving interactions or exothermic spin-independent isospin-violating interactions.

  16. Estimation Methods for Non-Homogeneous Regression - Minimum CRPS vs Maximum Likelihood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebetsberger, Manuel; Messner, Jakob W.; Mayr, Georg J.; Zeileis, Achim

    2017-04-01

    Non-homogeneous regression models are widely used to statistically post-process numerical weather prediction models. Such regression models correct for errors in mean and variance and are capable to forecast a full probability distribution. In order to estimate the corresponding regression coefficients, CRPS minimization is performed in many meteorological post-processing studies since the last decade. In contrast to maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization is claimed to yield more calibrated forecasts. Theoretically, both scoring rules used as an optimization score should be able to locate a similar and unknown optimum. Discrepancies might result from a wrong distributional assumption of the observed quantity. To address this theoretical concept, this study compares maximum likelihood and minimum CRPS estimation for different distributional assumptions. First, a synthetic case study shows that, for an appropriate distributional assumption, both estimation methods yield to similar regression coefficients. The log-likelihood estimator is slightly more efficient. A real world case study for surface temperature forecasts at different sites in Europe confirms these results but shows that surface temperature does not always follow the classical assumption of a Gaussian distribution. KEYWORDS: ensemble post-processing, maximum likelihood estimation, CRPS minimization, probabilistic temperature forecasting, distributional regression models

  17. On the Relationships between Jeffreys Modal and Weighted Likelihood Estimation of Ability under Logistic IRT Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magis, David; Raiche, Gilles

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on two estimators of ability with logistic item response theory models: the Bayesian modal (BM) estimator and the weighted likelihood (WL) estimator. For the BM estimator, Jeffreys' prior distribution is considered, and the corresponding estimator is referred to as the Jeffreys modal (JM) estimator. It is established that under…

  18. Audio-visual Classification and Fusion of Spontaneous Affect Data in Likelihood Space

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nicolaou, Mihalis A.; Gunes, Hatice; Pantic, Maja

    2010-01-01

    This paper focuses on audio-visual (using facial expression, shoulder and audio cues) classification of spontaneous affect, utilising generative models for classification (i) in terms of Maximum Likelihood Classification with the assumption that the generative model structure in the classifier is

  19. Likelihood of Suicidality at Varying Levels of Depression Severity: A Re-Analysis of NESARC Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uebelacker, Lisa A.; Strong, David; Weinstock, Lauren M.; Miller, Ivan W.

    2010-01-01

    Although it is clear that increasing depression severity is associated with more risk for suicidality, less is known about at what levels of depression severity the risk for different suicide symptoms increases. We used item response theory to estimate the likelihood of endorsing suicide symptoms across levels of depression severity in an…

  20. Significant Radionuclides Determination

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo A. Ziegler

    2001-07-31

    The purpose of this calculation is to identify radionuclides that are significant to offsite doses from potential preclosure events for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste expected to be received at the potential Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR). In this calculation, high-level radioactive waste is included in references to DOE SNF. A previous document, ''DOE SNF DBE Offsite Dose Calculations'' (CRWMS M&O 1999b), calculated the source terms and offsite doses for Department of Energy (DOE) and Naval SNF for use in design basis event analyses. This calculation reproduces only DOE SNF work (i.e., no naval SNF work is included in this calculation) created in ''DOE SNF DBE Offsite Dose Calculations'' and expands the calculation to include DOE SNF expected to produce a high dose consequence (even though the quantity of the SNF is expected to be small) and SNF owned by commercial nuclear power producers. The calculation does not address any specific off-normal/DBE event scenarios for receiving, handling, or packaging of SNF. The results of this calculation are developed for comparative analysis to establish the important radionuclides and do not represent the final source terms to be used for license application. This calculation will be used as input to preclosure safety analyses and is performed in accordance with procedure AP-3.12Q, ''Calculations'', and is subject to the requirements of DOE/RW-0333P, ''Quality Assurance Requirements and Description'' (DOE 2000) as determined by the activity evaluation contained in ''Technical Work Plan for: Preclosure Safety Analysis, TWP-MGR-SE-000010'' (CRWMS M&O 2000b) in accordance with procedure AP-2.21Q, ''Quality Determinations and Planning for Scientific, Engineering, and Regulatory Compliance Activities''.

  1. Disruptive Technologies in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flavin, Michael

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the role of "disruptive" innovative technologies in higher education. In this country and elsewhere, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) have invested significant sums in learning technologies, with Virtual Learning Environments (VLEs) being more or less universal, but these technologies have not been universally…

  2. Climatic and ecological future of the Amazon: likelihood and causes of change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, B.; Zeng, N.; Yoon, J.-H.

    2010-05-01

    Some recent climate modeling results suggested a possible dieback of the Amazon rainforest under future climate change, a prediction that raised considerable interest as well as controversy. To determine the likelihood and causes of such changes, we analyzed the output of 15 models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC/AR4) and a dynamic vegetation model VEGAS driven by these climate output. Our results suggest that the core of the Amazon rainforest should remain largely stable as rainfall is projected to increase in nearly all models. However, the periphery, notably the southern edge of the Amazon and further south in central Brazil, are in danger of drying out, driven by two main processes. Firstly, a decline in precipitation of 22% in the southern Amazon's dry season (May-September) reduces soil moisture, despite an increase in precipitation during the wet season, due to nonlinear responses in hydrology and ecosystem dynamics. Two dynamical mechanisms may explain the lower dry season rainfall: (1) a general subtropical drying under global warming when the dry season southern Amazon is under the control of the subtropical high pressure; (2) a stronger north-south tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient, and to lesser degree a warmer eastern equatorial Pacific. Secondly, evaporation demand will increase due to the general warming, further reducing soil moisture. In terms of ecosystem response, higher maintenance cost and reduced productivity under warming may also have additional adverse impact. The drying corresponds to a lengthening of the dry season by 11 days. As a consequence, the median of the models projects a reduction of 20% in vegetation carbon stock in the southern Amazon, central Brazil, and parts of the Andean Mountains. Further, VEGAS predicts enhancement of fire risk by 10-15%. The increase in fire is primarily due to the reduction in soil moisture, and the decrease in dry season rainfall, which

  3. High-dose regions versus likelihood of cure after prostate brachytherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallner, Kent; Merrick, Gregory; Sutlief, Steven; True, Laurence; Butler, Wayne

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: To analyze the effect of high-dose regions on biochemical cancer control rates after prostate brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: Patients with 1997 American Joint Committee on Cancer clinical Stage T1c-T2a prostate carcinoma (Gleason grade 5-6, prostate-specific antigen level 4-10 ng/mL) were randomized to implantation with 125 I (144 Gy) vs. 103 Pd (125 Gy, National Institute of Standards and Technology 1999). Isotope implantation was performed by standard techniques, using a modified peripheral loading pattern. Of the 313 patients entered in the protocol, 270 were included in this analysis. The 125 I source strength ranged from 0.4 to 0.89 mCi (median, 0.55 mCi), and the 103 Pd source strength ranged from 1.3 to 1.6 mCi (median, 1.5 mCi). CT was performed within 4 h after implantation. The dosimetric parameters analyzed included the percentage of the postimplant prostate volume covered by the 100%, 150%, 200%, and 300% prescription dose (V 100 , V 150 , V 200 , and V 300 , respectively). The median time to the last follow-up for patients without failure was 2.7 years. Freedom from biochemical failure was defined as a serum prostate-specific antigen level of ≤0.5 ng/mL at last follow-up. Patients were censored at last follow-up if their serum prostate-specific antigen level was still decreasing. Results: The mean V 100 , V 150 , V 200 , and V 300 value was 90% (±8%), 63% (±14), 35% (±13%), and 14% (±7%), respectively. Patients with a V 100 of ≥90% had a 3-year freedom from biochemical failure rate of 96% vs. 87% for those with a V 100 of 100 of ≥90% were analyzed, no relationship was found between higher dose regions and the likelihood of cancer control. This lack of effect on biochemical control was apparent for both isotopes. Conclusion: High-dose regions do not appear to affect cancer control rates, as long as >90% of the prostate volume is covered by the prescription dose

  4. Analysis of Minute Features in Speckled Imagery with Maximum Likelihood Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro C. Frery

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with numerical problems arising when performing maximum likelihood parameter estimation in speckled imagery using small samples. The noise that appears in images obtained with coherent illumination, as is the case of sonar, laser, ultrasound-B, and synthetic aperture radar, is called speckle, and it can neither be assumed Gaussian nor additive. The properties of speckle noise are well described by the multiplicative model, a statistical framework from which stem several important distributions. Amongst these distributions, one is regarded as the universal model for speckled data, namely, the 𝒢0 law. This paper deals with amplitude data, so the 𝒢A0 distribution will be used. The literature reports that techniques for obtaining estimates (maximum likelihood, based on moments and on order statistics of the parameters of the 𝒢A0 distribution require samples of hundreds, even thousands, of observations in order to obtain sensible values. This is verified for maximum likelihood estimation, and a proposal based on alternate optimization is made to alleviate this situation. The proposal is assessed with real and simulated data, showing that the convergence problems are no longer present. A Monte Carlo experiment is devised to estimate the quality of maximum likelihood estimators in small samples, and real data is successfully analyzed with the proposed alternated procedure. Stylized empirical influence functions are computed and used to choose a strategy for computing maximum likelihood estimates that is resistant to outliers.

  5. The effect of adult children living in the United States on the likelihood of cognitive impairment for older parents living in Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downer, Brian; González-González, Cesar; Goldman, Noreen; Pebley, Anne R; Wong, Rebeca

    2018-01-01

    The increased risk for poor physical and mental health outcomes for older parents in Mexico who have an adult child living in the United States may contribute to an increased risk for cognitive impairment in this population. The objective of this study was to examine if older adults in Mexico who have one or more adult children living in the United States are more or less likely to develop cognitive impairment over an 11-year period compared to older adults who do not have any adult children living in the United States. Data for this study came from Wave I (2001) and Wave III (2012) of the Mexican Health and Aging Study. The final sample included 2609 participants aged 60 and over who were not cognitively impaired in 2001 and had one or more adult children (age ≥15). Participants were matched using a propensity score that was estimated with a multivariable logistic regression model that included sociodemographic characteristics and migration history of the older parents. Having one or more adult children living in the United States is associated with lower socioeconomic status and higher number of depressive symptoms, but greater social engagement for older parents living in Mexico. No significant differences in the odds for developing cognitive impairment according to having one or more adult children living in the United States were detected. In summary, having one or more adult children living in the United States was associated with characteristics that may increase and decrease the risk for cognitive impairment. This may contribute to the non-significant relationship between migration status of adult children and likelihood for cognitive impairment for older parents living in Mexico.

  6. Towards higher intensities

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    Over the past 2 weeks, commissioning of the machine protection system has advanced significantly, opening up the possibility of higher intensity collisions at 3.5 TeV. The intensity has been increased from 2 bunches of 1010 protons to 6 bunches of 2x1010 protons. Luminosities of 6x1028 cm-2s-1 have been achieved at the start of fills, a factor of 60 higher than those provided for the first collisions on 30 March.   The recent increase in LHC luminosity as recorded by the experiments. (Graph courtesy of the experiments and M. Ferro-Luzzi) To increase the luminosity further, the commissioning crews are now trying to push up the intensity of the individual proton bunches. After the successful injection of nominal intensity bunches containing 1.1x1011 protons, collisions were subsequently achieved at 450 GeV with these intensities. However, half-way through the first ramping of these nominal intensity bunches to 3.5 TeV on 15 May, a beam instability was observed, leading to partial beam loss...

  7. Effect of two Howard Hughes Medical Institute research training programs for medical students on the likelihood of pursuing research careers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Di; Meyer, Roger E

    2003-12-01

    To assess the effect of Howard Hughes Medical Institute's (HHMI) two one-year research training programs for medical students on the awardees' research careers. Awardees of the HHMI Cloister Program who graduated between 1987 and 1995 and awardees of the HHMI Medical Fellows Program who graduated between 1991 and 1995 were compared with unsuccessful applicants to the programs and MD-PhD students who graduated during the same periods. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to assess research career outcomes while controlling for academic and demographic variables that could affect selection to the programs. Participation in both HHMI programs increased the likelihood of receiving National Institutes of Health postdoctoral support. Participation in the Cloister Program also increased the likelihood of receiving a faculty appointment with research responsibility at a medical school. In addition, awardees of the Medical Fellows Program were not significantly less likely than Medical Scientist Training Program (MSTP) and non-MSTP MD-PhD program participants to receive a National Institutes of Health postdoctoral award, and awardees of the Cloister Program were not significantly less likely than non-MSTP MD-PhD students to receive a faculty appointment with research responsibility. Women and underrepresented minority students were proportionally represented among awardees of the two HHMI programs whereas they were relatively underrepresented in MD-PhD programs. The one-year intensive research training supported by the HHMI training programs appears to provide an effective imprinting experience on medical students' research careers and to be an attractive strategy for training physician-scientists.

  8. Uncertain call likelihood negatively affects sleep and next-day cognitive performance while on-call in a laboratory environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprajcer, Madeline; Jay, Sarah M; Vincent, Grace E; Vakulin, Andrew; Lack, Leon; Ferguson, Sally A

    2018-05-11

    On-call working arrangements are employed in a number of industries to manage unpredictable events, and often involve tasks that are safety- or time-critical. This study investigated the effects of call likelihood during an overnight on-call shift on self-reported pre-bed anxiety, sleep and next-day cognitive performance. A four-night laboratory-based protocol was employed, with an adaptation, a control and two counterbalanced on-call nights. On one on-call night, participants were instructed that they would definitely be called during the night, while on the other on-call night they were told they may be called. The State-Trait Anxiety Inventory form x-1 was used to investigate pre-bed anxiety, and sleep was assessed using polysomnography and power spectral analysis of the sleep electroencephalographic analysis. Cognitive performance was assessed four times daily using a 10-min psychomotor vigilance task. Participants felt more anxious before bed when they were definitely going to be called, compared with the control and maybe conditions. Conversely, participants experienced significantly less non-rapid eye movement and stage two sleep and poorer cognitive performance when told they may be called. Further, participants had significantly more rapid eye movement sleep in the maybe condition, which may be an adaptive response to the stress associated with this on-call condition. It appears that self-reported anxiety may not be linked with sleep outcomes while on-call. However, this research indicates that it is important to take call likelihood into consideration when constructing rosters and risk-management systems for on-call workers.

  9. Can Asperger syndrome be distinguished from autism? An anatomic likelihood meta-analysis of MRI studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Kevin K; Cheung, Charlton; Chua, Siew E; McAlonan, Gráinne M

    2011-11-01

    The question of whether Asperger syndrome can be distinguished from autism has attracted much debate and may even incur delay in diagnosis and intervention. Accordingly, there has been a proposal for Asperger syndrome to be subsumed under autism in the forthcoming Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fifth edition, in 2013. One approach to resolve this question has been to adopt the criterion of absence of clinically significant language or cognitive delay--essentially, the "absence of language delay." To our knowledge, this is the first meta-analysis of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) studies of people with autism to compare absence with presence of language delay. It capitalizes on the voxel-based morphometry (VBM) approach to systematically explore the whole brain for anatomic correlates of delay and no delay in language acquisition in people with autism spectrum disorders. We conducted a systematic search for VBM MRI studies of grey matter volume in people with autism. Studies with a majority (at least 70%) of participants with autism diagnoses and a history of language delay were assigned to the autism group (n = 151, control n = 190). Those with a majority (at least 70%) of individuals with autism diagnoses and no language delay were assigned to the Asperger syndrome group (n = 149, control n = 214). We entered study coordinates into anatomic likelihood estimation meta-analysis software with sampling size weighting to compare grey matter summary maps driven by Asperger syndrome or autism. The summary autism grey matter map showed lower volumes in the cerebellum, right uncus, dorsal hippocampus and middle temporal gyrus compared with controls; grey matter volumes were greater in the bilateral caudate, prefrontal lobe and ventral temporal lobe. The summary Asperger syndrome map indicated lower grey matter volumes in the bilateral amygdala/hippocampal gyrus and prefrontal lobe, left occipital gyrus, right cerebellum, putamen and precuneus

  10. Crash test rating and likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injury in motor vehicle crashes: the new car assessment program side-impact crash test, 1998-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figler, Bradley D; Mack, Christopher D; Kaufman, Robert; Wessells, Hunter; Bulger, Eileen; Smith, Thomas G; Voelzke, Bryan

    2014-03-01

    The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration's New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) implemented side-impact crash testing on all new vehicles since 1998 to assess the likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injuries during a side-impact crash. Higher crash test rating is intended to indicate a safer car, but the real-world applicability of these ratings is unknown. Our objective was to determine the relationship between a vehicle's NCAP side-impact crash test rating and the risk of major thoracoabdominal injury among the vehicle's occupants in real-world side-impact motor vehicle crashes. The National Automotive Sampling System Crashworthiness Data System contains detailed crash and injury data in a sample of major crashes in the United States. For model years 1998 to 2010 and crash years 1999 to 2010, 68,124 occupants were identified in the Crashworthiness Data System database. Because 47% of cases were missing crash severity (ΔV), multiple imputation was used to estimate the missing values. The primary predictor of interest was the occupant vehicle's NCAP side-impact crash test rating, and the outcome of interest was the presence of major (Abbreviated Injury Scale [AIS] score ≥ 3) thoracoabdominal injury. In multivariate analysis, increasing NCAP crash test rating was associated with lower likelihood of major thoracoabdominal injury at high (odds ratio [OR], 0.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.7-0.9; p NCAP side-impact crash test rating is associated with a lower likelihood of major thoracoabdominal trauma. Epidemiologic study, level III.

  11. Induction of mutants with higher protein content in soy bean

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hiraiwa, S.; Tanaka, S.; Nakamura, S.

    1976-01-01

    Two experiments were carried out to examine the effects of ionizing radiation on protein content of soy beans and to estimate the potential value of ionizing radiation in soy bean breeding. In the first experiment seeds of three cultivars were acutely irradiated by gamma ray doses of 8 krad and 16 krad. Seeds of M 3 plants were analysed for protein content by the Biuret method. Selection within each variety was made to isolate plants having about 2% higher protein content than the control populations. In the second experiment growing plants of a soy bean cultivar were irradiated with 2.9 krad and 6.1 krad, from germination to maturation, in a 60 Co gamma field. Seeds on individual lines in M 5 , M 6 and M 7 plants were determined for their protein contents by the Kjeldahl method and the upper 10% of the treated lines were selected for progeny testing. From the results of the analysis of variance for each trait, significant differences were observed between the control variety and selected lines for all the traits. Six out of 19 lines showed significant increases in both 100 seed weight and protein content, and four lines promising. The mean protein content of selected lines increased 0.68% compared with the control variety. Genetic gain expected from selection for high protein content was therefore considered at about 1%; however, the likelihood of a large increase in protein content would greatly increase if large populations derived from irradiated seeds were observed

  12. Efficient estimators for likelihood ratio sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arampatzis, Georgios; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc [Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States)

    2016-03-14

    We demonstrate that centered likelihood ratio estimators for the sensitivity indices of complex stochastic dynamics are highly efficient with low, constant in time variance and consequently they are suitable for sensitivity analysis in long-time and steady-state regimes. These estimators rely on a new covariance formulation of the likelihood ratio that includes as a submatrix a Fisher information matrix for stochastic dynamics and can also be used for fast screening of insensitive parameters and parameter combinations. The proposed methods are applicable to broad classes of stochastic dynamics such as chemical reaction networks, Langevin-type equations and stochastic models in finance, including systems with a high dimensional parameter space and/or disparate decorrelation times between different observables. Furthermore, they are simple to implement as a standard observable in any existing simulation algorithm without additional modifications.

  13. Image properties of list mode likelihood reconstruction for a rectangular positron emission mammography with DOI measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi, Jinyi; Klein, Gregory J.; Huesman, Ronald H.

    2000-01-01

    A positron emission mammography scanner is under development at our Laboratory. The tomograph has a rectangular geometry consisting of four banks of detector modules. For each detector, the system can measure the depth of interaction information inside the crystal. The rectangular geometry leads to irregular radial and angular sampling and spatially variant sensitivity that are different from conventional PET systems. Therefore, it is of importance to study the image properties of the reconstructions. We adapted the theoretical analysis that we had developed for conventional PET systems to the list mode likelihood reconstruction for this tomograph. The local impulse response and covariance of the reconstruction can be easily computed using FFT. These theoretical results are also used with computer observer models to compute the signal-to-noise ratio for lesion detection. The analysis reveals the spatially variant resolution and noise properties of the list mode likelihood reconstruction. The theoretical predictions are in good agreement with Monte Carlo results

  14. Maximum likelihood pixel labeling using a spatially variant finite mixture model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gopal, S.S.; Hebert, T.J.

    1996-01-01

    We propose a spatially-variant mixture model for pixel labeling. Based on this spatially-variant mixture model we derive an expectation maximization algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the pixel labels. While most algorithms using mixture models entail the subsequent use of a Bayes classifier for pixel labeling, the proposed algorithm yields maximum likelihood estimates of the labels themselves and results in unambiguous pixel labels. The proposed algorithm is fast, robust, easy to implement, flexible in that it can be applied to any arbitrary image data where the number of classes is known and, most importantly, obviates the need for an explicit labeling rule. The algorithm is evaluated both quantitatively and qualitatively on simulated data and on clinical magnetic resonance images of the human brain

  15. Attitude determination and calibration using a recursive maximum likelihood-based adaptive Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, D. A.; Fermelia, A.; Lee, G. K. F.

    1990-01-01

    An adaptive Kalman filter design that utilizes recursive maximum likelihood parameter identification is discussed. At the center of this design is the Kalman filter itself, which has the responsibility for attitude determination. At the same time, the identification algorithm is continually identifying the system parameters. The approach is applicable to nonlinear, as well as linear systems. This adaptive Kalman filter design has much potential for real time implementation, especially considering the fast clock speeds, cache memory and internal RAM available today. The recursive maximum likelihood algorithm is discussed in detail, with special attention directed towards its unique matrix formulation. The procedure for using the algorithm is described along with comments on how this algorithm interacts with the Kalman filter.

  16. On Bayesian Testing of Additive Conjoint Measurement Axioms Using Synthetic Likelihood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karabatsos, George

    2018-06-01

    This article introduces a Bayesian method for testing the axioms of additive conjoint measurement. The method is based on an importance sampling algorithm that performs likelihood-free, approximate Bayesian inference using a synthetic likelihood to overcome the analytical intractability of this testing problem. This new method improves upon previous methods because it provides an omnibus test of the entire hierarchy of cancellation axioms, beyond double cancellation. It does so while accounting for the posterior uncertainty that is inherent in the empirical orderings that are implied by these axioms, together. The new method is illustrated through a test of the cancellation axioms on a classic survey data set, and through the analysis of simulated data.

  17. Clarification of the use of chi-square and likelihood functions in fits to histograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baker, S.; Cousins, R.D.

    1984-01-01

    We consider the problem of fitting curves to histograms in which the data obey multinomial or Poisson statistics. Techniques commonly used by physicists are examined in light of standard results found in the statistics literature. We review the relationship between multinomial and Poisson distributions, and clarify a sufficient condition for equality of the area under the fitted curve and the number of events on the histogram. Following the statisticians, we use the likelihood ratio test to construct a general Z 2 statistic, Zsub(lambda) 2 , which yields parameter and error estimates identical to those of the method of maximum likelihood. The Zsub(lambda) 2 statistic is further useful for testing goodness-of-fit since the value of its minimum asymptotically obeys a classical chi-square distribution. One should be aware, however, of the potential for statistical bias, especially when the number of events is small. (orig.)

  18. A comparison of maximum likelihood and other estimators of eigenvalues from several correlated Monte Carlo samples

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beer, M.

    1980-01-01

    The maximum likelihood method for the multivariate normal distribution is applied to the case of several individual eigenvalues. Correlated Monte Carlo estimates of the eigenvalue are assumed to follow this prescription and aspects of the assumption are examined. Monte Carlo cell calculations using the SAM-CE and VIM codes for the TRX-1 and TRX-2 benchmark reactors, and SAM-CE full core results are analyzed with this method. Variance reductions of a few percent to a factor of 2 are obtained from maximum likelihood estimation as compared with the simple average and the minimum variance individual eigenvalue. The numerical results verify that the use of sample variances and correlation coefficients in place of the corresponding population statistics still leads to nearly minimum variance estimation for a sufficient number of histories and aggregates

  19. Constructing valid density matrices on an NMR quantum information processor via maximum likelihood estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, Harpreet; Arvind; Dorai, Kavita, E-mail: kavita@iisermohali.ac.in

    2016-09-07

    Estimation of quantum states is an important step in any quantum information processing experiment. A naive reconstruction of the density matrix from experimental measurements can often give density matrices which are not positive, and hence not physically acceptable. How do we ensure that at all stages of reconstruction, we keep the density matrix positive? Recently a method has been suggested based on maximum likelihood estimation, wherein the density matrix is guaranteed to be positive definite. We experimentally implement this protocol on an NMR quantum information processor. We discuss several examples and compare with the standard method of state estimation. - Highlights: • State estimation using maximum likelihood method was performed on an NMR quantum information processor. • Physically valid density matrices were obtained every time in contrast to standard quantum state tomography. • Density matrices of several different entangled and separable states were reconstructed for two and three qubits.

  20. Likelihood updating of random process load and resistance parameters by monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager

    2003-01-01

    that maximum likelihood estimation is a rational alternative to an arbitrary weighting for least square fitting. The derived likelihood function gets singularities if the spectrum is prescribed with zero values at some frequencies. This is often the case for models of technically relevant processes......, even though it is of complicated mathematical form, allows an approximate Bayesian updating and control of the time development of the parameters. Some of these parameters can be structural parameters that by too much change reveal progressing damage or other malfunctioning. Thus current process......Spectral parameters for a stationary Gaussian process are most often estimated by Fourier transformation of a realization followed by some smoothing procedure. This smoothing is often a weighted least square fitting of some prespecified parametric form of the spectrum. In this paper it is shown...