Review on the solar spectral variability in the EUV for space weather purposes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Lilensten

2008-02-01

Full Text Available The solar XUV-EUV flux is the main energy source in the terrestrial diurnal thermosphere: it produces ionization, dissociation, excitation and heating. Accurate knowledge of this flux is of prime importance for space weather. We first list the space weather applications that require nowcasting and forecasting of the solar XUV-EUV flux. We then review present models and discuss how they account for the variability of the solar spectrum. We show why the measurement of the full spectrum is difficult, and why it is illusory to retrieve it from its atmospheric effects. We then address the problem of determining a set of observations that are adapted for space weather purposes, in the frame of ionospheric studies. Finally, we review the existing and future space experiments that are devoted to the observation of the solar XUV-EUV spectrum.

Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

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Huang, Xiaodong; Mengersen, Kerrie; Milinovich, Gabriel; Hu, Wenbiao

2017-06-01

The effects of weather variability on seasonal influenza among different age groups remain unclear. The comparative study aims to explore the differences in the associations between weather variability and seasonal influenza, and growth rates of seasonal influenza epidemics among different age groups in Queensland, Australia. Three Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive models were fitted at the postal area level to quantify the relationships between seasonal influenza and monthly minimum temperature (MIT), monthly vapor pressure, school calendar pattern, and Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage for 3 age groups (Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission in younger (0-14) age groups. The growth rates of influenza at postal area level were relatively small for older (≥65) age groups in Queensland, Australia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses.

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Djennad, Abdelmajid; Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Sarran, Christophe; Fleming, Lora E; Kessel, Anthony; Haines, Andy; Nichols, Gordon L

2018-04-27

To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known. Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient's specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient's residence and the laboratory. There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum

Physical activity levels of community-dwelling older adults are influenced by winter weather variables.

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Jones, G R; Brandon, C; Gill, D P

2017-07-01

Winter weather conditions may negatively influence participation of older adults in daily physical activity (PA). Assess the influence of winter meteorological variables, day-time peak ambient temperature, windchill, humidity, and snow accumulation on the ground to accelerometer measured PA values in older adults. 50 community-dwelling older adults (77.4±4.7yrs; range 71-89; 12 females) living in Southwestern Ontario (Latitude 42.9°N Longitude 81.2° W) Canada, wore a waist-borne accelerometer during active waking hours (12h) for 7 consecutive days between February and April 2007. Hourly temperature, windchill, humidity, and snowfall accumulation were obtained from meteorological records and time locked to hourly accelerometer PA values. Regression analysis revealed significant relationships between time of day, ambient daytime high temperature and a humidity for participation in PA. Windchill temperature added no additional influence over PA acclamation already influenced by ambient day-time temperature and the observed variability in PA patterns relative to snow accumulation over the study period was too great to warrant its inclusion in the model. Most PA was completed in the morning hours and increased as the winter month's transitioned to spring (February through April). An equation was developed to adjust for winter weather conditions using temperature, humidity and time of day. Accurate PA assessment during the winter months must account for the ambient daytime high temperatures, humidity, and time of day. These older adults were more physically active during the morning hours and became more active as the winter season transitioned to spring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

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Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

2017-12-01

Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Temporal associations between weather and headache: analysis by empirical mode decomposition.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Albert C Yang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients frequently report that weather changes trigger headache or worsen existing headache symptoms. Recently, the method of empirical mode decomposition (EMD has been used to delineate temporal relationships in certain diseases, and we applied this technique to identify intrinsic weather components associated with headache incidence data derived from a large-scale epidemiological survey of headache in the Greater Taipei area. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study sample consisted of 52 randomly selected headache patients. The weather time-series parameters were detrended by the EMD method into a set of embedded oscillatory components, i.e. intrinsic mode functions (IMFs. Multiple linear regression models with forward stepwise methods were used to analyze the temporal associations between weather and headaches. We found no associations between the raw time series of weather variables and headache incidence. For decomposed intrinsic weather IMFs, temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, pressure, and maximal wind speed were associated with headache incidence during the cold period, whereas only maximal wind speed was associated during the warm period. In analyses examining all significant weather variables, IMFs derived from temperature and sunshine duration data accounted for up to 33.3% of the variance in headache incidence during the cold period. The association of headache incidence and weather IMFs in the cold period coincided with the cold fronts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using EMD analysis, we found a significant association between headache and intrinsic weather components, which was not detected by direct comparisons of raw weather data. Contributing weather parameters may vary in different geographic regions and different seasons.

Successfully Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Spann, James

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Influence of weather variables and plant communities on grasshopper density in the Southern Pampas, Argentina.

Science.gov (United States)

de Wysiecki, María Laura; Arturi, Marcelo; Torrusio, Sandra; Cigliano, María Marta

2011-01-01

temperature had no significant effect on total grasshopper density, these weather variables and plant communities had differential influence on the dominant grasshopper species.

Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

2018-04-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

Comparative study of airborne Alternaria conidia levels in two cities in Castilla-La Mancha (central Spain), and correlations with weather-related variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabariego, Silvia; Bouso, Veronica; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

2012-01-01

Alternaria conidia are among the airborne biological particles known to trigger allergic respiratory diseases. The presented paper reports on a study of seasonal variations in airborne Alternaria conidia concentrations in 2 cities in the central Spanish region of Castilla-La Mancha, Albacete and Toledo. The influence of weather-related variables on airborne conidia levels and distribution was also analysed. Sampling was carried out from 2008-2010 using a Hirst sampler, following the methodology established by the Spanish Aerobiology Network. Annual airborne Alternaria conidia counts were higher in Toledo (annual mean 3,936 conidia) than in Albacete (annual mean 2,268 conidia). Conidia were detected in the air throughout the year, but levels peaked between May-September. Considerable year-on-year variations were recorded both in total annual counts and in seasonal distribution. A significant positive correlation was generally found between mean daily Alternaria counts and both temperature and hours of sunlight, while a significant negative correlation was recorded for relative humidity, daily and cumulative rainfall, and wind speed. Regression models indicated that between 31%-52% of the variation in airborne Alternaria conidia concentrations could be explained by weather-related variables.

Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada)

Science.gov (United States)

Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

2017-10-01

Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaodong Huang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS: Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas, and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR:1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.01-2.28, monthly minimum temperature ((oC (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93, monthly relative humidity (% (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37, monthly rainfall (mm (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81 and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (% (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50. In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections.

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Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events-space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections

Science.gov (United States)

Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

2018-03-01

There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events—space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

Influence of weather and climate variables on the basal area growth of individual shortleaf pine trees

Science.gov (United States)

Pradip Saud; Thomas B. Lynch; Duncan S. Wilson; John Stewart; James M. Guldin; Bob Heinemann; Randy Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson

2015-01-01

An individual-tree basal area growth model previously developed for even-aged naturally occurring shortleaf pine trees (Pinus echinata Mill.) in western Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma did not include weather variables. Individual-tree growth and yield modeling of shortleaf pine has been carried out using the remeasurements of over 200 plots...

Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Bussel, Van L.G.J.; Enders, Andreas; Specka, Xenia; Sosa, Carmen; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Tao, Fulu; Constantin, Julie; Raynal, Helene; Teixeira, Edmar; Grosz, Balázs; Doro, Luca; Zhao, Zhigan; Nendel, Claas; Kiese, Ralf; Eckersten, Henrik; Haas, Edwin; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wang, Enli; Kuhnert, Matthias; Trombi, Giacomo; Moriondo, Marco; Bindi, Marco; Lewan, Elisabet; Bach, Michaela; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Rötter, Reimund; Roggero, Pier Paolo; Wallach, Daniel; Cammarano, Davide; Asseng, Senthold; Krauss, Gunther; Siebert, Stefan

2015-01-01

We assessed the weather data aggregation effect (DAE) on the simulation of cropping systems for different crops, response variables, and production conditions. Using 13 processbased crop models and the ensemble mean, we simulated 30 yr continuous cropping systems for 2 crops (winter wheat and

Influences of rainfall variables and antecedent discharge on urban effluent concentrations and loads in wet weather.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Zuxin; Xiong, Lijun; Li, Huaizheng; Liao, Zhengliang; Yin, Hailong; Wu, Jun; Xu, Jin; Chen, Hao

2017-04-01

For storm drainages inappropriately connected with sewage, wet weather discharge is a major factor that adversely affects receiving waters. A study of the wet weather influences of rainfall-discharge variables on storm drainages connected with sewage was conducted in the downtown Shanghai area (374 ha). Two indicators, event mean concentration (EMC) and event pollutant load per unit area (EPL), were used to describe the pollution discharge during 20 rain events. The study showed that the total rainfall and discharge volume were important factors that affect the EMCs and EPLs of the chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and especially those of NH 4 + -N. The pollutant concentrations at the beginning of the discharge and the discharge period were also major factors that influence the EMCs of these three pollutants. Regression relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and discharge volume/ EPLs (R 2 = 0.824-0.981) were stronger than the relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and EMCs. These regression equations can be considered reliable in the system, with a relative validation error of less than ±10% for the discharge volume, and less than ±20% for the EPLs. The results presented in this paper provide guidance for effectively controlling pollution in similar storm drainages.

SPAGETTA: a Multi-Purpose Gridded Stochastic Weather Generator

Science.gov (United States)

Dubrovsky, M.; Huth, R.; Rotach, M. W.; Dabhi, H.

2017-12-01

SPAGETTA is a new multisite/gridded multivariate parametric stochastic weather generator (WG). Site-specific precipitation occurrence and amount are modelled by Markov chain and Gamma distribution, the non-precipitation variables are modelled by an autoregressive (AR) model conditioned on precipitation occurrence, and the spatial coherence of all variables is modelled following the Wilks' (2009) approach. SPAGETTA may be run in two modes. Mode 1: it is run as a classical WG, which is calibrated using weather series from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. Mode 2: the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying AR model, which produces the multi-site weather series. Optionally, the user may add the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the synthetic series. The contribution consists of following parts: (a) Model of the WG. (b) Validation of WG in terms of the spatial temperature and precipitation characteristics, including characteristics of spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells. (c) Results of the climate change impact experiment, in which the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and the effect on the above spatial validation indices is analysed. In this experiment, the WG is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulations (CORDEX database). (d) The second mode of operation will be

The Amazon hydrometeorology: Climatology, variability and links to changes in weather patterns

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Katia De Avila

My thesis focuses on improving the quantification of the hydrological cycle and understanding the atmospheric processes that link weather to climate in the Amazon River basin. By using ERA40 and independent observations, I assess how well we can estimate the surface water budget in the Amazon River basin. I find that ERA40 basin wide annual precipitation (P) overall agrees with observations showing a slight underestimation of 10% in average, whereas runoff (R) is underestimated by a larger margin (˜25%). Observed residual of precipitation and runoff (denoted as P-R) is better estimated by ERA40 P-R than actual ET which includes soil moisture nudging. The causes for said discrepancies were found to partly relate to soil moisture nudging that needs to be applied during the dry season to produce realistic ET and compensate for the low soil moisture recharge during the previous wet season. Insufficient recharge may in part be caused by underestimation of rainfall amount and intensity; moreover the shallow root layer in the model does not represent the deep soil water reservoir characteristic of the Amazonian forest. Whether the hydrological cycle and weather patterns in the Amazon have changed during the past few decades is a highly debatable but central question for detecting climate change in the region. The second part of my thesis focus on the physical links between rainfall changes detected in observations, and changes of synoptic scale systems as represented by ERA40. My results suggest that an observed delayed wet season onset is consistent with a decreasing number of cold air incursion (CAI) days in southern Amazon for the period 1979--2001. The variability of CAI into southern Amazon is related to the variability of SST upstream of South America in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. A Singular Value Decomposition Analysis (SVD) between CAI days and global SST reveal three main modes of co-variability. The first mode describes the effect of the El Nino

Considerations in the weathering of wood-plastic composites

Science.gov (United States)

Nicole M. Stark

2007-01-01

During weathering, wood-plastic composites (WPCs) can fade and lose stiffness and strength. Weathering variables that induce these changes include exposure to UV light and water. Each variable degrades WPCs independently, but can also act synergistically. Recent efforts have highlighted the need to understand how WPCs weather, and to develop schemes for protection. The...

Waste glass weathering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

1994-01-01

The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

How reliable is the offline linkage of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model?

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The aim for this research is to evaluate the ability of the offline linkage of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to produce hydrological, e.g. evaporation (ET), soil moisture (SM), runoff, and baseflow. First, the VIC mo...

Assessment of rock mechanical properties and seismic slope stability in variably weathered layered basalts

Science.gov (United States)

Greenwood, William; Clark, Marin; Zekkos, Dimitrios; Von Voigtlander, Jennifer; Bateman, Julie; Lowe, Katherine; Hirose, Mitsuhito; Anderson, Suzanne; Anderson, Robert; Lynch, Jerome

2016-04-01

A field and laboratory experimental study was conducted to assess the influence of weathering on the mechanical properties of basalts in the region of the Kohala volcano on the island of Hawaii. Through the systematic characterization of the weathering profiles developed in different precipitation regimes, we aim to explain the regional pattern of stability of slopes in layered basalts that were observed during the 2006 Mw 6.7 Kiholo Bay earthquake. While deeper weathering profiles on the wet side of the island might be expected to promote more and larger landslides, the distribution of landslides during the Kiholo Bay earthquake did not follow this anticipated trend. Landslide frequency (defined as number of landslides divided by total area) was similar on the steepest slopes (> 50-60) for both the dry and the wet side of the study area suggesting relatively strong ground materials irrespective of weathering. The study location is ideally suited to investigate the role of precipitation, and more broadly of climate, on the mechanical properties of the local rock units because the presence of the Kohala volcano produces a significant precipitation gradient on what are essentially identical basaltic flows. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) varies by more than an order of magnitude, from 200 mm/year on the western side of the volcano to 4000 mm/year in the eastern side. We will present results of measured shear wave velocities using a seismic surface wave methodology. These results were paired with laboratory testing on selected basalt specimens that document the sample-scale shear wave velocity and unconfined compressive strength of the basaltic rocks. Shear wave velocity and unconfined strength of the rocks are correlated and are both significantly lower in weathered rocks near the ground surface than at depth. This weathering-related reduction in shear wave velocity extends to greater depths in areas of high precipitation compared to areas of lower precipitation

Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Space Environments Engineering and Crew Auroral Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Minow, Joseph I.; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.

2012-01-01

The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

Stochastic weather inputs for improved urban water demand forecasting: application of nonlinear input variable selection and machine learning methods

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Quilty, J.; Adamowski, J. F.

2015-12-01

Urban water supply systems are often stressed during seasonal outdoor water use as water demands related to the climate are variable in nature making it difficult to optimize the operation of the water supply system. Urban water demand forecasts (UWD) failing to include meteorological conditions as inputs to the forecast model may produce poor forecasts as they cannot account for the increase/decrease in demand related to meteorological conditions. Meteorological records stochastically simulated into the future can be used as inputs to data-driven UWD forecasts generally resulting in improved forecast accuracy. This study aims to produce data-driven UWD forecasts for two different Canadian water utilities (Montreal and Victoria) using machine learning methods by first selecting historical UWD and meteorological records derived from a stochastic weather generator using nonlinear input variable selection. The nonlinear input variable selection methods considered in this work are derived from the concept of conditional mutual information, a nonlinear dependency measure based on (multivariate) probability density functions and accounts for relevancy, conditional relevancy, and redundancy from a potential set of input variables. The results of our study indicate that stochastic weather inputs can improve UWD forecast accuracy for the two sites considered in this work. Nonlinear input variable selection is suggested as a means to identify which meteorological conditions should be utilized in the forecast.

Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather

Science.gov (United States)

Zeyringer, Marianne; Price, James; Fais, Birgit; Li, Pei-Hao; Sharp, Ed

2018-05-01

The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution power system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres.

Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

OpenAIRE

Piotr Binkowski

2008-01-01

The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

Iron isotopic fractionation during continental weathering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fantle, Matthew S.; DePaolo, Donald J.

2003-10-01

The biological activity on continents and the oxygen content of the atmosphere determine the chemical pathways through which Fe is processed at the Earth's surface. Experiments have shown that the relevant chemical pathways fractionate Fe isotopes. Measurements of soils, streams, and deep-sea clay indicate that the {sup 56}Fe/{sup 54}Fe ratio ({delta}{sup 56}Fe relative to igneous rocks) varies from +1{per_thousand} for weathering residues like soils and clays, to -3{per_thousand} for dissolved Fe in streams. These measurements confirm that weathering processes produce substantial fractionation of Fe isotopes in the modern oxidizing Earth surface environment. The results imply that biologically-mediated processes, which preferentially mobilize light Fe isotopes, are critical to Fe chemistry in weathering environments, and that the {delta}{sup 56}Fe of marine dissolved Fe should be variable and negative. Diagenetic reduction of Fe in marine sediments may also be a significant component of the global Fe isotope cycle. Iron isotopes provide a tracer for the influence of biological activity and oxygen in weathering processes through Earth history. Iron isotopic fractionation during weathering may have been smaller or absent in an oxygen-poor environment such as that of the early Precambrian Earth.

Calibration of Local Area Weather Radar-Identifying significant factors affecting the calibration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Lisbeth; Jensen, Niels Einar; Madsen, Henrik

2010-01-01

A Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) is an X-band weather radar developed to meet the needs of high resolution rainfall data for hydrological applications. The LAWR system and data processing methods are reviewed in the first part of this paper, while the second part of the paper focuses...... cases when the calibration is based on a factorized 3 parameter linear model instead of a single parameter linear model....

Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marković Todor

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

Influence of weather factors on population dynamics of two lagomorph species based on hunting bag records

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rödel, H.; Dekker, J.J.A.

2012-01-01

Weather conditions can have a significant influence on short-term fluctuations of animal populations. In our study, which is based on time series of hunting bag records of up to 28 years from 26 counties of The Netherlands and Germany, we investigated the impact of different weather variables on

Weather models as virtual sensors to data-driven rainfall predictions in urban watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Cozzi, Lorenzo; Galelli, Stefano; Pascal, Samuel Jolivet De Marc; Castelletti, Andrea

2013-04-01

Weather and climate predictions are a key element of urban hydrology where they are used to inform water management and assist in flood warning delivering. Indeed, the modelling of the very fast dynamics of urbanized catchments can be substantially improved by the use of weather/rainfall predictions. For example, in Singapore Marina Reservoir catchment runoff processes have a very short time of concentration (roughly one hour) and observational data are thus nearly useless for runoff predictions and weather prediction are required. Unfortunately, radar nowcasting methods do not allow to carrying out long - term weather predictions, whereas numerical models are limited by their coarse spatial scale. Moreover, numerical models are usually poorly reliable because of the fast motion and limited spatial extension of rainfall events. In this study we investigate the combined use of data-driven modelling techniques and weather variables observed/simulated with a numerical model as a way to improve rainfall prediction accuracy and lead time in the Singapore metropolitan area. To explore the feasibility of the approach, we use a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model as a virtual sensor network for the input variables (the states of the WRF model) to a machine learning rainfall prediction model. More precisely, we combine an input variable selection method and a non-parametric tree-based model to characterize the empirical relation between the rainfall measured at the catchment level and all possible weather input variables provided by WRF model. We explore different lead time to evaluate the model reliability for different long - term predictions, as well as different time lags to see how past information could improve results. Results show that the proposed approach allow a significant improvement of the prediction accuracy of the WRF model on the Singapore urban area.

The impact of weather variation on energy consumption in residential houses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fikru, Mahelet G.; Gautier, Luis

2015-01-01

Highlights: • There is evidence for significant intraday variation of energy use. • The sensitivity of energy use to weather variation falls via efficiency features. • The sensitivity of energy use to weather depends on the specific time of day/night. • High frequency data helps to accurately model the energy use-weather relationship. - Abstract: This paper studies the impact of weather variation on energy use by using 5-minutes interval weather–energy data obtained from two residential houses: house 1 is a conventional house with advanced efficiency features and house 2 is a net-zero solar house with relatively more advanced efficiency features. Our result suggests that energy consumption in house 2 is not as sensitive to changes in weather variables as the conventional house. On average, we find that a one unit increase in heating and cooling degree minutes increases energy use by about 9% and 5% respectively for house 1 and 5% and 4% respectively for house 2. In addition, our findings suggest that non-temperature variables such as solar radiation and humidity affect energy use where the sensitivity rates for house 2 are consistently lower than that of house 1. Furthermore our result suggests that the sensitivity of energy use to weather depends on the season and specific time of the day/night

Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flechsig, M; Gerlinger, K; Herrmann, N; Klein, R J.T.; Schneider, M; Sterr, H; Schellnhuber, H J

2000-05-01

The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

Weather and place-based human behavior: recreational preferences and sensitivity

Science.gov (United States)

de Freitas, C. R.

2015-01-01

This study examines the links between biometeorological variables and the behavior of beach recreationists along with their rating of overall weather conditions. To identify and describe significance of on-site atmospheric conditions, two separate forms of response are examined. The first is sensory perception of the immediate atmospheric surround expressed verbally, which was the subject of earlier work. In the research reported here, on-site observations of behavior that reflect the effects of weather and climate are examined. By employing, independently, separate indicators of on-site experience, the reliability of each is examined and interpreted and apparent threshold conditions verified. The study site is King's Beach located on the coast of Queensland, Australia. On-site observations of atmospheric variables and beach user behavior are made for the daylight hours of 45 days spread over a 12-month period. The results show that behavioral data provide reliable and meaningful indications of the significance of the atmospheric environment for leisure. Atmospheric conditions within the zone of acceptability are those that the beach users can readily cope with or modify by a range of minor behavioral adjustments. Optimal weather conditions appear to be those requiring no specific behavioral adjustment. Attendance levels reflect only the outer limits of acceptability of the meteorological environment, while duration of visit enables calibration of levels of approval in so far as it reflects rating of on-site weather within a broad zone of tolerance. In a broad theoretical sense, the results add to an understanding of the relationship between weather and human behavior. This information is potentially useful in effective tourism management and planning.

Assessing Weather Curiosity in University Students

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, A. E.

2017-12-01

This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of trait curiosity about the weather using the Weather Curiosity Scale (WCS). The measure consists of 15 self-report items that describe weather preferences and/or behaviors that people may perform more or less frequently. The author reports on two initial studies of the WCS that have used the responses of 710 undergraduate students from a large university in the southeastern United States. In the first study, factor analysis of the 15 items indicated that the measure was unidimensional - suggesting that its items singularly assessed weather curiosity. The WCS also was internally consistent as evidenced by an acceptable Cronbach's alpha, a = .81). The second study sought to identify other personality variables that may relate with the WCS scores and thus illuminate the nature of weather curiosity. Several clusters of personality variables appear to underlie the curiosity levels people exhibited, the first of which related to perceptual curiosity (r = .59). Being curious about sights, sounds, smells, and textures generally related somewhat to curiosity about weather. Two measures of trait sensitivity to environmental stimulation, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (r = .47) and the Orientation Sensitivity Scale of the Adult Temperament Questionnaire (r = .43), also predicted weather curiosity levels. Finally, possessing extraverted personality traits (r = .34) and an intense style of experiencing one's emotions (r = .33) related to weather curiosity. How can this measure be used in K-12 or post-secondary settings to further climate literacy? First, the WCS can identify students with natural curiosities about weather and climate so these students may be given more challenging instruction that will leverage their natural interests. Second, high-WCS students may function as weather and climate ambassadors during inquiry-based learning activities and thus help other students who are not as oriented to the

Weather forecast

CERN Document Server

Courtier, P

1994-02-07

Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flechsig, M.; Gerlinger, K.; Herrmann, N.; Klein, R.J.T.; Schneider, M.; Sterr, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

2000-05-01

The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

The Influence of Weather Conditions on Joint Pain in Older People with Osteoarthritis: Results from the European Project on OSteoArthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Timmermans, Erik J; Schaap, Laura A; Herbolsheimer, Florian; Dennison, Elaine M; Maggi, Stefania; Pedersen, Nancy L; Castell, Maria Victoria; Denkinger, Michael D; Edwards, Mark H; Limongi, Federica; Sánchez-Martínez, Mercedes; Siviero, Paola; Queipo, Rocio; Peter, Richard; van der Pas, Suzan; Deeg, Dorly J H

2015-10-01

This study examined whether daily weather conditions, 3-day average weather conditions, and changes in weather conditions influence joint pain in older people with osteoarthritis (OA) in 6 European countries. Data from the population-based European Project on OSteoArthritis were used. The American College of Rheumatology classification criteria were used to diagnose OA in older people (65-85 yrs). After the baseline interview, at 6 months, and after the 12-18 months followup interview, joint pain was assessed using 2-week pain calendars. Daily values for temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and wind speed were obtained from local weather stations. Multilevel regression modelling was used to examine the pain-weather associations, adjusted for several confounders. The study included 810 participants with OA in the knee, hand, and/or hip. After adjustment, there were significant associations of joint pain with daily average humidity (B = 0.004, p weather conditions. Changes in weather variables between 2 consecutive days were not significantly associated with reported joint pain. The associations between pain and daily average weather conditions suggest that a causal relationship exist between joint pain and weather variables, but the associations between day-to-day weather changes and pain do not confirm causation. Knowledge about the relationship between joint pain in OA and weather may help individuals with OA, physicians, and therapists to better understand and manage fluctuations in pain.

The role of forest trees and their mycorrhizal fungi in carbonate rock weathering and its significance for global carbon cycling.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorley, Rachel M S; Taylor, Lyla L; Banwart, Steve A; Leake, Jonathan R; Beerling, David J

2015-09-01

On million-year timescales, carbonate rock weathering exerts no net effect on atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, on timescales of decades-to-centuries, it can contribute to sequestration of anthropogenic CO2 and increase land-ocean alkalinity flux, counteracting ocean acidification. Historical evidence indicates this flux is sensitive to land use change, and recent experimental evidence suggests that trees and their associated soil microbial communities are major drivers of continental mineral weathering. Here, we review key physical and chemical mechanisms by which the symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi of forest tree roots potentially enhance carbonate rock weathering. Evidence from our ongoing field study at the UK's national pinetum confirms increased weathering of carbonate rocks by a wide range of gymnosperm and angiosperm tree species that form arbuscular (AM) or ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal partnerships. We demonstrate that calcite-containing rock grains under EM tree species weather significantly faster than those under AM trees, an effect linked to greater soil acidification by EM trees. Weathering and corresponding alkalinity export are likely to increase with rising atmospheric CO2 and associated climate change. Our analyses suggest that strategic planting of fast-growing EM angiosperm taxa on calcite- and dolomite-rich terrain might accelerate the transient sink for atmospheric CO2 and slow rates of ocean acidification. © 2014 The Authors. Plant, Cell & Environment published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

April E Reside

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species. METHODOLOGY: We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008. These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year averages of the same climatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.

Topographic imprint on chemical weathering in deeply weathered soil-mantled landscapes (southern Brazil)

Science.gov (United States)

Vanacker, Veerle; Schoonejans, Jerome; Ameijeiras-Marino, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Minella, Jean

2017-04-01

The regolith mantle is defined as the thin layer of unconsolidated material overlaying bedrock that contributes to shape the Earth's surface. The development of the regolith mantle in a landscape is the result of in-situ weathering, atmospheric input and downhill transport of weathering products. Bedrock weathering - the physical and chemical transformations of rock to soil - contributes to the vertical development of the regolith layer through downward propagation of the weathering front. Lateral transport of soil particles, aggregates and solutes by diffusive and concentrated particle and solute fluxes result in lateral redistribution of weathering products over the hillslope. In this study, we aim to expand the empirical basis on long-term soil evolution at the landscape scale through a detailed study of soil weathering in subtropical soils. Spatial variability in chemical mass fluxes and weathering intensity were studied along two toposequences with similar climate, lithology and vegetation but different slope morphology. This allowed us to isolate the topographic imprint on chemical weathering and soil development. The toposequences have convexo-concave slope morphology, and eight regolith profiles were analysed involving the flat upslope, steep midslope and flat toeslope part. Our data show a clear topographic imprint on soil development. Along hillslope, the chemical weathering intensity of the regolith profiles increases with distance from the crest. In contrast to the upslope positions, the soils in the basal concavities develop on in-situ and transported regolith. While the chemical weathering extent on the slope convexities (the upslope profiles) is similar for the steep and gentle toposequence, there is a clear difference in the rate of increase of the chemical weathering extent with distance from the crest. The increase of chemical weathering extent along hillslope is highest for the steep toposequence, suggesting that topography enhances soil particle

The Determination of Feasible Control Variables for Geoengineering and Weather Modification Based on the Theory of Sensitivity in Dynamical Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei A. Soldatenko

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Geophysical cybernetics allows for exploring weather and climate modification (geoengineering as an optimal control problem in which the Earth’s climate system is considered as a control system and the role of controller is given to human operators. In mathematical models used in climate studies control actions that manipulate the weather and climate can be expressed via variations in model parameters that act as controls. In this paper, we propose the “instability-sensitivity” approach that allows for determining feasible control variables in geoengineering. The method is based on the sensitivity analysis of mathematical models that describe various types of natural instability phenomena. The applicability of this technique is illustrated by a model of atmospheric baroclinic instability since this physical mechanism plays a significant role in the general circulation of the atmosphere and, consequently, in climate formation. The growth rate of baroclinic unstable waves is taken as an indicator of control manipulations. The information obtained via calculated sensitivity coefficients is very beneficial for assessing the physical feasibility of methods of control of the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and for designing optimal control systems for climatic processes. It also provides insight into potential future changes in baroclinic waves, as a result of a changing climate.

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

Science.gov (United States)

Hardegree, Stuart P.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brunson, Mark W.; Germino, Matthew; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Moffet, Corey A.; Pilliod, David S.; Roundy, Bruce A.; Boehm, Alex R.; Meredith, Gwendwr R.

2018-01-01

Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

Weather types in Sosnowiec (Poland during the period 1999-2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dobrowolska Ksenia

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The study presents the structure of weather types for the city of Sosnowiec during the period 1999-2013. The analysis was carried out on the basis of daily thermal data (the average daily air temperature, the minimum and maximum daily air temperature, cloudiness and precipitation. The data was obtained from a meteorological station belonging to the Department of Climatology at the Faculty of Earth Sciences at the University of Silesia. Weather types were established according to weather type classification after Woś (2010. 48 weather types were specified on the basis of a combination of 3 selected meteorological elements (temperature, cloudiness, precipitation. The number of days in the year and the frequency of particular thermal weather types, weather subtype, weather classes and weather types were characterized, and the changeability of weather types was analyzed. Furthermore, sequences of days with specific weather types were described. The analysis conducted has lead to the conclusion that, during the research period, the weather structure for the city of Sosnowiec was characterized by a great number of weather types observed, with relatively low frequency of occurrence. Weather throughout the year was dominated by warm weather types (3--, 2--, 2--, with weather marked as 310 – very warm, moderately cloudy, without precipitation (12.9% recorded as the most frequent, followed by 221 – moderately warm, very cloudy, with precipitation (11.6%, and 210 – moderately warm, moderately cloudy, without precipitation (11.4%as the least frequent one. A diversification in the number of particular classification units in consecutive years of the examined 15-year period does not display significant variability. Short sequences of 2 and 3 days dominated the selected sequences of specific weather types.

Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr Binkowski

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

[Influence of weather in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in Galicia (Spain)].

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández-García, José Manuel; Dosil Díaz, Olga; Taboada Hidalgo, Juan José; Fernández, José Ramón; Sánchez-Santos, Luis

2015-08-07

To assess the interactions between weather and the impact of each individual meteorological parameters in the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) in Galicia. Retrospective study analyzing the number of AMI diagnosed and transferred to the hospital by the Emergencies Sanitary System of Galicia between 2002 and 2009. We included patients with clinical and ECG findings of AMI. The correlation between 10-minute meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, pressure, accumulated rainfall and wind speed) recorded by MeteoGalicia and the incidence of AMI was assessed. A total of 4,717 AMI were registered (72.8% men, 27.2% women). No seasonal variations were found. No significant correlations were detected with regard to average daily temperature (P=.683) or wind speed (P=.895). Correlation between atmospheric pressure and incidence of AMI was significant (P<.005), as well as with the daily relative humidity average (P=.005). Our study showed a statistical significant association with atmospheric pressure and with the daily relative humidity average. Since the local conditions of weather are widely variable, future studies should establish the relationship between weather patterns (including combinations of meteorological parameters), rather than seasonal variations, and the incidence of AMI. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Efficient Estimation of Spectral Moments and the Polarimetric Variables on Weather Radars, Sonars, Sodars, Acoustic Flow Meters, Lidars, and Similar Active Remote Sensing Instruments

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A method for estimation of Doppler spectrum, its moments, and polarimetric variables on pulsed weather radars which uses over sampled echo components at a rate...

Marrying Step Feed with Secondary Clarifier Improvements to Significantly Increase Peak Wet Weather Treatment Capacity: An Integrated Methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Daigger, Glen T; Siczka, John S; Smith, Thomas F; Frank, David A; McCorquodale, J A

2017-08-01

  The need to increase the peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity of the City of Akron, Ohio, Water Reclamation Facility (WRF) provided the opportunity to test an integrated methodology for maximizing the peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity of activated sludge systems. An initial investigation, consisting of process modeling of the secondary treatment system and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the existing relatively shallow secondary clarifiers (3.3 and 3.7 m sidewater depth in 30.5 m diameter units), indicated that a significant increase in capacity from 416 000 to 684 000 m3/d or more was possible by adding step feed capabilities to the existing bioreactors and upgrading the existing secondary clarifiers. One of the six treatment units at the WRF was modified, and an extensive 2-year testing program was conducted to determine the total peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity achievable. The results demonstrated that a peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity approaching 974 000 m3/d is possible as long as secondary clarifier solids and hydraulic loadings could be separately controlled using the step feed capability provided. Excellent sludge settling characteristics are routinely experienced at the City of Akron WRF, raising concerns that the identified peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity could not be maintained should sludge settling characteristics deteriorate for some reason. Computational fluid dynamics analysis indicated that the impact of the deterioration of sludge settling characteristics could be mitigated and the identified peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity maintained by further use of the step feed capability provided to further reduce secondary clarifier solids loading rates at the identified high surface overflow rates. The results also demonstrated that effluent limits not only for total suspended solids (TSS) and five-day carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (cBOD5) could be

Using a Six Sigma Fishbone Analysis Approach To Evaluate the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Salmonella Positives in Young Chicken Slaughter Establishments.

Science.gov (United States)

Linville, John W; Schumann, Douglas; Aston, Christopher; Defibaugh-Chavez, Stephanie; Seebohm, Scott; Touhey, Lucy

2016-12-01

A six sigma fishbone analysis approach was used to develop a machine learning model in SAS, Version 9.4, by using stepwise linear regression. The model evaluated the effect of a wide variety of variables, including slaughter establishment operational measures, normal (30-year average) weather, and extreme weather events on the rate of Salmonella -positive carcasses in young chicken slaughter establishments. Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) verification carcass sampling data, as well as corresponding data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, from September 2011 through April 2015, were included in the model. The results of the modeling show that in addition to basic establishment operations, normal weather patterns, differences from normal and disaster events, including time lag weather and disaster variables, played a role in explaining the Salmonella percent positive that varied by slaughter volume quartile. Findings show that weather and disaster events should be considered as explanatory variables when assessing pathogen-related prevalence analysis or research and slaughter operational controls. The apparent significance of time lag weather variables suggested that at least some of the impact on Salmonella rates occurred after the weather events, which may offer opportunities for FSIS or the poultry industry to implement interventions to mitigate those effects.

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

A statistical-dynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part I: weather regimes as predictors for ocean surface variables

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cassou, Christophe; Minvielle, Marie; Terray, Laurent [CERFACS/CNRS, Climate Modelling and Global Change Team, Toulouse (France); Perigaud, Claire [JPL-NASA, Ocean Science Element, Pasadena, CA (United States)

2011-01-15

The links between the observed variability of the surface ocean variables estimated from reanalysis and the overlying atmosphere decomposed in classes of large-scale atmospheric circulation via clustering are investigated over the Atlantic from 1958 to 2002. Daily 500 hPa geopotential height and 1,000 hPa wind anomaly maps are classified following a weather-typing approach to describe the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic atmospheric dynamics, respectively. The algorithm yields patterns that correspond in the extratropics to the well-known North Atlantic-Europe weather regimes (NAE-WR) accounting for the barotropic dynamics, and in the tropics to wind classes (T-WC) representing the alteration of the trades. 10-m wind and 2-m temperature (T2) anomaly composites derived from regime/wind class occurrence are indicative of strong relationships between daily large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean surface over the entire Atlantic basin. High temporal correlation values are obtained basin-wide at low frequency between the observed fields and their reconstruction by multiple linear regressions with the frequencies of occurrence of both NAE-WR and T-WC used as sole predictors. Additional multiple linear regressions also emphasize the importance of accounting for the strength of the daily anomalous atmospheric circulation estimated by the combined distances to all regimes centroids in order to reproduce the daily to interannual variability of the Atlantic ocean. We show that for most of the North Atlantic basin the occurrence of NAE-WR generally sets the sign of the ocean surface anomaly for a given day, and that the inter-regime distances are valuable predictors for the magnitude of that anomaly. Finally, we provide evidence that a large fraction of the low-frequency trends in the Atlantic observed at the surface over the last 50 years can be traced back, except for T2, to changes in occurrence of tropical and extratropical weather classes. All together, our

Utilization of Live Localized Weather Information for Sustainable Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, J.; Usher, J.

2010-09-01

Authors: Jim Anderson VP, Global Network and Business Development WeatherBug® Professional Jeremy Usher Managing Director, Europe WeatherBug® Professional Localized, real-time weather information is vital for day-to-day agronomic management of all crops. The challenge for agriculture is twofold in that local and timely weather data is not often available for producers and farmers, and it is not integrated into decision-support tools they require. Many of the traditional sources of weather information are not sufficient for agricultural applications because of the long distances between weather stations, meaning the data is not always applicable for on-farm decision making processes. The second constraint with traditional weather information is the timeliness of the data. Most delivery systems are designed on a one-hour time step, whereas many decisions in agriculture are based on minute-by-minute weather conditions. This is especially true for decisions surrounding chemical and fertilizer application and frost events. This presentation will outline how the creation of an agricultural mesonet (weather network) can enable producers and farmers with live, local weather information from weather stations installed in farm/field locations. The live weather information collected from each weather station is integrated into a web-enabled decision support tool, supporting numerous on-farm agronomic activities such as pest management, or dealing with heavy rainfall and frost events. Agronomic models can be used to assess the potential of disease pressure, enhance the farmer's abilities to time pesticide applications, or assess conditions contributing to yield and quality fluctuations. Farmers and industry stakeholders may also view quality-assured historical weather variables at any location. This serves as a record-management tool for viewing previously uncharted agronomic weather events in graph or table form. This set of weather tools is unique and provides a

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

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Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

2012-01-01

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

The influence of meteorological variables on the development of deep venous thrombosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Helen K; Simpson, A John; Murchison, John T

2009-10-01

The influence of weather on deep venous thrombosis (DVT) incidence remains controversial. We aimed to characterize the temporal association between DVT and meteorological variables including atmospheric pressure. Data relating to hospital admissions with DVT in Scotland were collected retrospectively for a 20 year period for which corresponding meteorological recordings were available. Weather variables were calculated as weighted daily averages to adjust for variations in population density. Seasonal variation in DVT and short-term effects of weather variables on the relative risk of developing DVT were assess using Poisson regression modelling. The models allowed for the identification of lag periods between variation in the weather and DVT presentation. A total of 37,336 cases of DVT were recorded. There was significant seasonal variation in DVT with a winter peak. Seasonal variation in wind speed and temperature were significantly associated with seasonal variation in DVT. When studying more immediate meteorological influences, low atmospheric pressure, high wind speed and high rainfall were significantly associated with an increased risk of DVT approximately 9-10 days later. The effect was most strikingly demonstrated for atmospheric pressure, every 10 millibar decrease in pressure being associated with a 2.1% increase in relative risk of DVT. Alterations in weather have a small but significant impact upon the incidence of DVT. DVT is particularly associated with reduction in atmospheric pressure giving weight to the hypothesis that reduced cabin pressure in long haul flights contributes to DVT. These findings have implications for our understanding of the pathogenesis of DVT.

Optimized Strategies for Detecting Extrasolar Space Weather

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Hallinan, Gregg

2018-06-01

Fully understanding the implications of space weather for the young solar system, as well as the wider population of planet-hosting stars, requires remote sensing of space weather in other stellar systems. Solar coronal mass ejections can be accompanied by bright radio bursts at low frequencies (typically measurement of the magnetic field strength of the planet, informing on whether the atmosphere of the planet can survive the intense magnetic activity of its host star. However, both stellar and planetary radio emission are highly variable and optimal strategies for detection of these emissions requires the capability to monitor 1000s of nearby stellar/planetary systems simultaneously. I will discuss optimized strategies for both ground and space-based experiments to take advantage of the highly variable nature of the radio emissions powered by extrasolar space weather to enable detection of stellar CMEs and planetary magnetospheres.

Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

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Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

2010-01-01

Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

Association of day length and weather conditions with physical activity levels in older community dwelling people.

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Miles D Witham

Full Text Available Weather is a potentially important determinant of physical activity. Little work has been done examining the relationship between weather and physical activity, and potential modifiers of any relationship in older people. We therefore examined the relationship between weather and physical activity in a cohort of older community-dwelling people.We analysed prospectively collected cross-sectional activity data from community-dwelling people aged 65 and over in the Physical Activity Cohort Scotland. We correlated seven day triaxial accelerometry data with daily weather data (temperature, day length, sunshine, snow, rain, and a series of potential effect modifiers were tested in mixed models: environmental variables (urban vs rural dwelling, percentage of green space, psychological variables (anxiety, depression, perceived behavioural control, social variables (number of close contacts and health status measured using the SF-36 questionnaire.547 participants, mean age 78.5 years, were included in this analysis. Higher minimum daily temperature and longer day length were associated with higher activity levels; these associations remained robust to adjustment for other significant associates of activity: age, perceived behavioural control, number of social contacts and physical function. Of the potential effect modifier variables, only urban vs rural dwelling and the SF-36 measure of social functioning enhanced the association between day length and activity; no variable modified the association between minimum temperature and activity.In older community dwelling people, minimum temperature and day length were associated with objectively measured activity. There was little evidence for moderation of these associations through potentially modifiable health, environmental, social or psychological variables.

Climate, weather, and hops

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As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

Weather elements, chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged, Hungary: performance of two objective weather classifications.

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Makra, László; Puskás, János; Matyasovszky, István; Csépe, Zoltán; Lelovics, Enikő; Bálint, Beatrix; Tusnády, Gábor

2015-09-01

Weather classification approaches may be useful tools in modelling the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of an objectively defined weather classification and the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) in classifying emergency department (ED) visits for acute asthma depending from weather, air pollutants, and airborne pollen variables for Szeged, Hungary, for the 9-year period 1999-2007. The research is performed for three different pollen-related periods of the year and the annual data set. According to age and gender, nine patient categories, eight meteorological variables, seven chemical air pollutants, and two pollen categories were used. In general, partly dry and cold air and partly warm and humid air aggravate substantially the symptoms of asthmatics. Our major findings are consistent with this establishment. Namely, for the objectively defined weather types favourable conditions for asthma ER visits occur when an anticyclonic ridge weather situation happens with near extreme temperature and humidity parameters. Accordingly, the SSC weather types facilitate aggravating asthmatic conditions if warm or cool weather occur with high humidity in both cases. Favourable conditions for asthma attacks are confirmed in the extreme seasons when atmospheric stability contributes to enrichment of air pollutants. The total efficiency of the two classification approaches is similar in spite of the fact that the methodology for derivation of the individual types within the two classification approaches is completely different.

Noodles: a tool for visualization of numerical weather model ensemble uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Sanyal, Jibonananda; Zhang, Song; Dyer, Jamie; Mercer, Andrew; Amburn, Philip; Moorhead, Robert J

2010-01-01

Numerical weather prediction ensembles are routinely used for operational weather forecasting. The members of these ensembles are individual simulations with either slightly perturbed initial conditions or different model parameterizations, or occasionally both. Multi-member ensemble output is usually large, multivariate, and challenging to interpret interactively. Forecast meteorologists are interested in understanding the uncertainties associated with numerical weather prediction; specifically variability between the ensemble members. Currently, visualization of ensemble members is mostly accomplished through spaghetti plots of a single mid-troposphere pressure surface height contour. In order to explore new uncertainty visualization methods, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to create a 48-hour, 18 member parameterization ensemble of the 13 March 1993 "Superstorm". A tool was designed to interactively explore the ensemble uncertainty of three important weather variables: water-vapor mixing ratio, perturbation potential temperature, and perturbation pressure. Uncertainty was quantified using individual ensemble member standard deviation, inter-quartile range, and the width of the 95% confidence interval. Bootstrapping was employed to overcome the dependence on normality in the uncertainty metrics. A coordinated view of ribbon and glyph-based uncertainty visualization, spaghetti plots, iso-pressure colormaps, and data transect plots was provided to two meteorologists for expert evaluation. They found it useful in assessing uncertainty in the data, especially in finding outliers in the ensemble run and therefore avoiding the WRF parameterizations that lead to these outliers. Additionally, the meteorologists could identify spatial regions where the uncertainty was significantly high, allowing for identification of poorly simulated storm environments and physical interpretation of these model issues.

Contribution of sand-associated enterococci to dry weather water quality.

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Halliday, Elizabeth; Ralston, David K; Gast, Rebecca J

2015-01-06

Culturable enterococci and a suite of environmental variables were collected during a predominantly dry summer at a beach impacted by nonpoint source pollution. These data were used to evaluate sands as a source of enterococci to nearshore waters, and to assess the relationship between environmental factors and dry-weather enterococci abundance. Best-fit multiple linear regressions used environmental variables to explain more than half of the observed variation in enterococci in water and dry sands. Notably, during dry weather the abundance of enterococci in dry sands at the mean high-tide line was significantly positively related to sand moisture content (ranging from sands. Tidal forcing modulated the abundance of enterococci in the water, as both turbidity and enterococci were elevated during ebb and flood tides. The probability of samples violating the single-sample maximum was significantly greater when collected during periods with increased tidal range: spring ebb and flood tides. Tidal forcing also affected groundwater mixing zones, mobilizing enterococci from sand to water. These data show that routine monitoring programs using discrete enterococci measurements may be biased by tides and other environmental factors, providing a flawed basis for beach closure decisions.

Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan

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Chang, Tsangyao; Nieh, Chien-Chung; Yang, Ming Jing; Yang, Tse-Yu

2006-05-01

In this study, we employ a recently developed econometric technique of the threshold model with the GJR-GARCH process on error terms to investigate the relationships between weather factors and stock market returns in Taiwan using daily data for the period of 1 July 1997-22 October 2003. The major weather factors studied include temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. Our empirical evidence shows that temperature and cloud cover are two important weather factors that affect the stock returns in Taiwan. Our empirical findings further support the previous arguments that advocate the inclusion of economically neutral behavioral variables in asset pricing models. These results also have significant implications for individual investors and financial institutions planning to invest in the Taiwan stock market.

Temporal, seasonal and weather effects on cycle volume: an ecological study

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Tin Tin Sandar

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cycling has the potential to provide health, environmental and economic benefits but the level of cycling is very low in New Zealand and many other countries. Adverse weather is often cited as a reason why people do not cycle. This study investigated temporal and seasonal variability in cycle volume and its association with weather in Auckland, New Zealand's largest city. Methods Two datasets were used: automated cycle count data collected on Tamaki Drive in Auckland by using ZELT Inductive Loop Eco-counters and weather data (gust speed, rain, temperature, sunshine duration available online from the National Climate Database. Analyses were undertaken using data collected over one year (1 January to 31 December 2009. Normalised cycle volumes were used in correlation and regression analyses to accommodate differences by hour of the day and day of the week and holiday. Results In 2009, 220,043 bicycles were recorded at the site. There were significant differences in mean hourly cycle volumes by hour of the day, day type and month of the year (p p Conclusions There are temporal and seasonal variations in cycle volume in Auckland and weather significantly influences hour-to-hour and day-to-day variations in cycle volume. Our findings will help inform future cycling promotion activities in Auckland.

Pilot's Automated Weather Support System (PAWSS) concepts demonstration project. Phase 1: Pilot's weather information requirements and implications for weather data systems design

Science.gov (United States)

Crabill, Norman L.; Dash, Ernie R.

1991-01-01

The weather information requirements for pilots and the deficiencies of the current aviation weather support system in meeting these requirements are defined. As the amount of data available to pilots increases significantly in the near future, expert system technology will be needed to assist pilots in assimilating that information. Some other desirable characteristics of an automation-assisted system for weather data acquisition, dissemination, and assimilation are also described.

Reference Evapotranspiration Retrievals from a Mesoscale Model Based Weather Variables for Soil Moisture Deficit Estimation

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Prashant K. Srivastava

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo and soil moisture deficit (SMD are vital for understanding the hydrological processes, particularly in the context of sustainable water use efficiency in the globe. Precise estimation of ETo and SMD are required for developing appropriate forecasting systems, in hydrological modeling and also in precision agriculture. In this study, the surface temperature downscaled from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to estimate ETo using the boundary conditions that are provided by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF. In order to understand the performance, the Hamon’s method is employed to estimate the ETo using the temperature from meteorological station and WRF derived variables. After estimating the ETo, a range of linear and non-linear models is utilized to retrieve SMD. The performance statistics such as RMSE, %Bias, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE indicates that the exponential model (RMSE = 0.226; %Bias = −0.077; NSE = 0.616 is efficient for SMD estimation by using the Observed ETo in comparison to the other linear and non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.019–0.667; %Bias range = 2.821–6.894; NSE = 0.013–0.419 used in this study. On the other hand, in the scenario where SMD is estimated using WRF downscaled meteorological variables based ETo, the linear model is found promising (RMSE = 0.017; %Bias = 5.280; NSE = 0.448 as compared to the non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.022–0.707; %Bias range = −0.207–−6.088; NSE range = 0.013–0.149. Our findings also suggest that all the models are performing better during the growing season (RMSE range = 0.024–0.025; %Bias range = −4.982–−3.431; r = 0.245–0.281 than the non−growing season (RMSE range = 0.011–0.12; %Bias range = 33.073–32.701; r = 0.161–0.244 for SMD estimation.

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-05-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

Weather types and strokes in the Augsburg region (Southern Germany)

Science.gov (United States)

Beck, Christoph; Ertl, Michael; Giemsa, Esther; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Naumann, Markus; Seubert, Stefanie

2017-04-01

Strokes are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide and the main reason for longterm care dependency in Germany. Concerning the economical impact on patients and healthcare systems it is of particular importance to prevent this disease as well as to improve the outcome of the affected persons. Beside the primary well-known risk factors like hypertension, cigarette smoking, physical inactivity and others, also weather seems to have pronounced influence on the occurrence and frequency of strokes. Previous studies most often focused on effects of singular meteorological variables like ambient air temperature, air pressure or humidity. An advanced approach is to link the entire suite of daily weather elements classified to air mass- or weather types to cerebrovascular morbidity or mortality. In a joint pilot study bringing together climatologists, environmental scientists and physicians from the University of Augsburg and the clinical centre Augsburg, we analysed relationships between singular meteorological parameters as well as combined weather effects (e.g. weather types) and strokes in the urban area of Augsburg and the surrounding rural region. A total of 17.501 stroke admissions to Neurological Clinic and Clinical Neurophysiology at Klinikum Augsburg between 2006 and 2015 are classified to either "ischaemic" (16.354) or "haemorrhagic" (1.147) subtype according to etiology (based on the International Classification of Diseases - 10th Revision). Spearman correlations between daily frequencies of ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes and singular atmospheric parameters (T, Tmin, Tmax, air pressure, humidity etc.) measured at the DWD (German weather service) meteorological station at Augsburg Muehlhausen are rather low. However, higher correlations are achieved when considering sub-samples of "homogenous weather conditions" derived from synoptic circulation classifications: e.g. within almost all of 10 types arising from a classification of

Monitoring the variability of sea level and surface circulation with satellite altimetry

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Volkov, Denis L. "Jr"

2004-01-01

Variability in the ocean plays an important role in determining global weather and climate conditions. The advent of satellite altimetry has significantly facilitated the study of the variability of sea level and surface circulation. Satellites provide high-quality regular and nearly global

Weathering of plagioclase across variable flow and solute transport regimes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pacheco, F.A.L.; Weijden, C.H. van der

2012-01-01

The study area is situated in a fault zone with fractured granites and metasediments. In a conceptual model, infiltrating water first passes the bedrock cover of soil and saprolite and then partly enters the fractures. Weathering reactions of minerals occur in small pores and fissures in the bedrock

Significance of settling model structures and parameter subsets in modelling WWTPs under wet-weather flow and filamentous bulking conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Plósz, Benedek Gy

2014-10-15

Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D) SST model structures and parameters. We identify the critical sources of uncertainty in WWTP models through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using the Benchmark simulation model No. 1 in combination with first- and second-order 1-D SST models. The results obtained illustrate that the contribution of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets for WWTP model calibration, and propose optimal choice of 1-D SST models under different flow and settling boundary conditions. Additionally, the hydraulic parameters in the second-order SST model are found significant under dynamic wet-weather flow conditions. These results highlight the importance of developing a more mechanistic based flow-dependent hydraulic sub-model in second-order 1-D SST models in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Effect of weather on odontogenic abscesses].

Science.gov (United States)

Nissen, G; Schmidseder, R

1978-11-01

An increased frequency of odontogenous abcesses was observed on certain days in the course of routine clinical practice. We therefore investigated the possibility of a statistically significant weather-related odontogenous soft-tissue purulence originating from chronic apical periodontitis. Medical reports of patients treated between 1970 and 1977 were used. Our study indicated that the frequency of odontogenous abcesses was significantly higher with cyclonic weather conditions, i.e., weather with low barometric pressure.

Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A

2018-03-13

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

1980-09-01

A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

Weather regimes over Senegal during the summer monsoon season using self-organizing maps and hierarchical ascendant classification. Part II: interannual time scale

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gueye, A.K. [ESP, UCAD, Dakar (Senegal); Janicot, Serge; Sultan, Benjamin [LOCEAN/IPSL, IRD, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris cedex 05 (France); Niang, A. [LTI, ESP/UCAD, Dakar (Senegal); Sawadogo, S. [LTI, EPT, Thies (Senegal); Diongue-Niang, A. [ANACIM, Dakar (Senegal); Thiria, S. [LOCEAN/IPSL, UPMC, Paris (France)

2012-11-15

The aim of this work is to define over the period 1979-2002 the main synoptic weather regimes relevant for understanding the daily variability of rainfall during the summer monsoon season over Senegal. ''Interannual'' synoptic weather regimes are defined by removing the influence of the mean 1979-2002 seasonal cycle. This is different from Part I where the seasonal evolution of each year was removed, then removing also the contribution of interannual variability. As in Part I, the self-organizing maps approach, a clustering methodology based on non-linear artificial neural network, is combined with a hierarchical ascendant classification to compute these regimes. Nine weather regimes are identified using the mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind field as variables. The composite circulation patterns of all these nine weather regimes are very consistent with the associated anomaly patterns of precipitable water, mid-troposphere vertical velocity and rainfall. They are also consistent with the distribution of rainfall extremes. These regimes have been then gathered into different groups. A first group of four regimes is included in an inner circuit and is characterized by a modulation of the semi-permanent trough located along the western coast of West Africa and an opposite modulation on the east. This circuit is important because it associates the two wettest and highly persistent weather regimes over Senegal with the driest and the most persistent one. One derivation of this circuit is highlighted, including the two driest regimes and the most persistent one, what can provide important dry sequences occurrence. An exit of this circuit is characterised by a filling of the Saharan heat low. An entry into the main circuit includes a southward location of the Saharan heat low followed by its deepening. The last weather regime is isolated from the other ones and it has no significant impact on Senegal. It is present in June and September, and

The "dirty weather" diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for northern New Zealand, 1839-1851

Science.gov (United States)

Lorrey, Andrew M.; Chappell, Petra R.

2016-03-01

Reverend Richard Davis (1790-1863) was a colonial-era missionary stationed in the Far North of New Zealand who was a key figure in the early efforts of the Church Mission Society. He kept meticulous meteorological records for the early settlements of Waimate North and Kaikohe, and his observations are preserved in a two-volume set in the Sir George Grey Special Collections in the Auckland Central Library. The Davis diary volumes are significant because they constitute some of the earliest land-based meteorological measurements that were continually chronicled for New Zealand. The diary measurements cover nine years within the 1839-1851 time span that are broken into two parts: 1839-1844 and 1848-1851. Davis' meteorological recordings include daily 9 a.m. and noon temperatures and midday pressure measurements. Qualitative comments in the diary note prevailing wind flow, wind strength, cloud cover, climate variability impacts, bio-indicators suggestive of drought, and notes on extreme weather events. "Dirty weather" comments scattered throughout the diary describe disturbed conditions with strong winds and driving rainfall. The Davis diary entries coincide with the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and they indicate southerly and westerly circulation influences and cooler winter temperatures were more frequent than today. A comparison of climate field reconstructions derived from the Davis diary data and tree-ring-based winter temperature reconstructions are supported by tropical coral palaeotemperature evidence. Davis' pressure measurements were corroborated using ship log data from vessels associated with iconic Antarctic exploration voyages that were anchored in the Bay of Islands, and suggest the pressure series he recorded are robust and can be used as "station data". The Reverend Davis meteorological data are expected to make a significant contribution to the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions across the Earth (ACRE) project, which feeds the major data

Significance of settling model structures and parameter subsets in modelling WWTPs under wet-weather flow and filamentous bulking conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2014-01-01

Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks...... (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D...... of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets...

Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides.

Science.gov (United States)

Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Crone, Elizabeth E; Ramula, Satu; Tyre, Andrew J

2018-04-01

Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(λt). Log(λt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management.

Science.gov (United States)

Jonas, Jayne L; Buhl, Deborah A; Symstad, Amy J

2015-09-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six data sets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity

Acute Low Back Pain? Do Not Blame the Weather-A Case-Crossover Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Beilken, Keira; Hancock, Mark J; Maher, Chris G; Li, Qiang; Steffens, Daniel

2017-06-01

To investigate the influence of various weather parameters on the risk of developing a low back pain (LBP) episode. Case-crossover study. Primary care clinics in Sydney, Australia. 981 participants with a new episode of acute LBP. Weather parameters were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were derived comparing two exposure variables in the case window-(1) the average of the weather variable for the day prior to pain onset and (2) the change in the weather variable from 2 days prior to 1 day prior to pain onset-with exposures in two control windows (1 week and 1 month before the case window). The weather parameters of precipitation, humidity, wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, and air pressure were not associated with the onset of acute LBP. For one of the four analyses, higher temperature slightly increased the odds of pain onset. Common weather parameters that had been previously linked to musculoskeletal pain, such as precipitation, humidity, wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, and air pressure, do not increase the risk of onset for LBP. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

WIRE: Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies

Science.gov (United States)

Heimo, A.; Cattin, R.; Calpini, B.

2010-09-01

Renewable energies such as wind and solar energy will play an important, even decisive role in order to mitigate and adapt to the projected dramatic consequences to our society and environment due to climate change. Due to shrinking fossil resources, the transition to more and more renewable energy shares is unavoidable. But, as wind and solar energy are strongly dependent on highly variable weather processes, increased penetration rates will also lead to strong fluctuations in the electricity grid which need to be balanced. Proper and specific forecasting of ‘energy weather' is a key component for this. Therefore, it is today appropriate to scientifically address the requirements to provide the best possible specific weather information for forecasting the energy production of wind and solar power plants within the next minutes up to several days. Towards such aims, Weather Intelligence will first include developing dedicated post-processing algorithms coupled with weather prediction models and with past and/or online measurement data especially remote sensing observations. Second, it will contribute to investigate the difficult relationship between the highly intermittent weather dependent power production and concurrent capacities such as transport and distribution of this energy to the end users. Selecting, resp. developing surface-based and satellite remote sensing techniques well adapted to supply relevant information to the specific post-processing algorithms for solar and wind energy production short-term forecasts is a major task with big potential. It will lead to improved energy forecasts and help to increase the efficiency of the renewable energy productions while contributing to improve the management and presumably the design of the energy grids. The second goal will raise new challenges as this will require first from the energy producers and distributors definitions of the requested input data and new technologies dedicated to the management of

Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

Science.gov (United States)

McNally, B. David; Love, John

2011-01-01

The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today

WEATHER ON THE NEAREST BROWN DWARFS: RESOLVED SIMULTANEOUS MULTI-WAVELENGTH VARIABILITY MONITORING OF WISE J104915.57–531906.1AB

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Biller, Beth A.; Crossfield, Ian J. M.; Mancini, Luigi; Ciceri, Simona; Kopytova, Taisiya G.; Bonnefoy, Mickaël; Deacon, Niall R.; Schlieder, Joshua E.; Buenzli, Esther; Brandner, Wolfgang; Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.; Henning, Thomas; Goldman, Bertrand [Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie, Königstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Southworth, John [Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG (United Kingdom); Allard, France; Homeier, Derek; Freytag, Bernd [Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, 46 allée d' Italie, F-69364 Lyon cedex 07 (France); Greiner, Jochen [Max-Planck Institute for extraterrestrische Physik, D-85748 Garching, Giessenbachstr (Germany)

2013-11-20

We present two epochs of MPG/ESO 2.2 m GROND simultaneous six-band (r'i'z' JHK) photometric monitoring of the closest known L/T transition brown dwarf binary WISE J104915.57–531906.1AB. We report here the first resolved variability monitoring of both the T0.5 and L7.5 components. We obtained 4 hr of focused observations on the night of 2013 April 22 (UT), as well as 4 hr of defocused (unresolved) observations on the night of 2013 April 16 (UT). We note a number of robust trends in our light curves. The r' and i' light curves appear to be anti-correlated with z' and H for the T0.5 component and in the unresolved light curve. In the defocused dataset, J appears correlated with z' and H and anti-correlated with r' and i', while in the focused dataset we measure no variability for J at the level of our photometric precision, likely due to evolving weather phenomena. In our focused T0.5 component light curve, the K band light curve displays a significant phase offset relative to both H and z'. We argue that the measured phase offsets are correlated with atmospheric pressure probed at each band, as estimated from one-dimensional atmospheric models. We also report low-amplitude variability in i' and z' intrinsic to the L7.5 component.

Nature beyond Linearity: Meteorological Variability and Jensen's Inequality Can Explain Mast Seeding Behavior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcos Fernández-Martínez

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Mast seeding, the extremely variable and synchronized production of fruits, is a common reproductive behavior in plants. Weather is centrally involved in driving masting. Yet, it is often claimed that it cannot be the sole proximate cause of masting because weather is less variable than fruit production and because the shape of their distributions differ. We used computer simulations to demonstrate that the assumption that weather cannot be the main driver of masting was only valid for linear relationships between weather and fruit production. Non-linear relationships between interannual variability in weather and crop size, however, can account for the differences in their variability and the shape of their distributions because of Jensen's inequality. Exponential relationships with weather can increase the variability of fruit production, and sigmoidal relationships can produce bimodal distributions. These results challenge the idea that meteorological variability cannot be the main proximate driver of mast seeding, returning meteorological variability to the forefront of masting research.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

2009-10-15

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

2009-01-01

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đorđević Bojan S.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

Science.gov (United States)

Viereck, R. A.

2015-12-01

Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

Weather and emotional state

Science.gov (United States)

Spasova, Z.

2010-09-01

Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

A fresh look at weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings using 30-year actual weather data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use. • Weather impact varies with building type, building efficiency level, and location. • Simulated results using TMY3 weather data can under or over estimate those of AMY. • It is crucial to assess performance of buildings using long-term actual weather data. • Findings enable building stakeholders to make better decisions on weather impact. - Abstract: Buildings consume more than one third of the world’s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980–2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: (1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does

Variability of Neuronal Responses: Types and Functional Significance in Neuroplasticity and Neural Darwinism.

Science.gov (United States)

Chervyakov, Alexander V; Sinitsyn, Dmitry O; Piradov, Michael A

2016-01-01

HIGHLIGHTS We suggest classifying variability of neuronal responses as follows: false (associated with a lack of knowledge about the influential factors), "genuine harmful" (noise), "genuine neutral" (synonyms, repeats), and "genuine useful" (the basis of neuroplasticity and learning).The genuine neutral variability is considered in terms of the phenomenon of degeneracy.Of particular importance is the genuine useful variability that is considered as a potential basis for neuroplasticity and learning. This type of variability is considered in terms of the neural Darwinism theory. In many cases, neural signals detected under the same external experimental conditions significantly change from trial to trial. The variability phenomenon, which complicates extraction of reproducible results and is ignored in many studies by averaging, has attracted attention of researchers in recent years. In this paper, we classify possible types of variability based on its functional significance and describe features of each type. We describe the key adaptive significance of variability at the neural network level and the degeneracy phenomenon that may be important for learning processes in connection with the principle of neuronal group selection.

Weather data for simplified energy calculation methods. Volume IV. United States: WYEC data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olsen, A.R.; Moreno, S.; Deringer, J.; Watson, C.R.

1984-08-01

The objective of this report is to provide a source of weather data for direct use with a number of simplified energy calculation methods available today. Complete weather data for a number of cities in the United States are provided for use in the following methods: degree hour, modified degree hour, bin, modified bin, and variable degree day. This report contains sets of weather data for 23 cities using Weather Year for Energy Calculations (WYEC) source weather data. Considerable overlap is present in cities (21) covered by both the TRY and WYEC data. The weather data at each city has been summarized in a number of ways to provide differing levels of detail necessary for alternative simplified energy calculation methods. Weather variables summarized include dry bulb and wet bulb temperature, percent relative humidity, humidity ratio, wind speed, percent possible sunshine, percent diffuse solar radiation, total solar radiation on horizontal and vertical surfaces, and solar heat gain through standard DSA glass. Monthly and annual summaries, in some cases by time of day, are available. These summaries are produced in a series of nine computer generated tables.

Impacts from urban water systems on receiving waters - How to account for severe wet-weather events in LCA?

Science.gov (United States)

Risch, Eva; Gasperi, Johnny; Gromaire, Marie-Christine; Chebbo, Ghassan; Azimi, Sam; Rocher, Vincent; Roux, Philippe; Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Sinfort, Carole

2018-01-01

Sewage systems are a vital part of the urban infrastructure in most cities. They provide drainage, which protects public health, prevents the flooding of property and protects the water environment around urban areas. On some occasions sewers will overflow into the water environment during heavy rain potentially causing unacceptable impacts from releases of untreated sewage into the environment. In typical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of urban wastewater systems (UWS), average dry-weather conditions are modelled while wet-weather flows from UWS, presenting a high temporal variability, are not currently accounted for. In this context, the loads from several storm events could be important contributors to the impact categories freshwater eutrophication and ecotoxicity. In this study we investigated the contributions of these wet-weather-induced discharges relative to average dry-weather conditions in the life cycle inventory for UWS. In collaboration with the Paris public sanitation service (SIAAP) and Observatory of Urban Pollutants (OPUR) program researchers, this work aimed at identifying and comparing contributing flows from the UWS in the Paris area by a selection of routine wastewater parameters and priority pollutants. This collected data is organized according to archetypal weather days during a reference year. Then, for each archetypal weather day and its associated flows to the receiving river waters (Seine), the parameters of pollutant loads (statistical distribution of concentrations and volumes) were determined. The resulting inventory flows (i.e. the potential loads from the UWS) were used as LCA input data to assess the associated impacts. This allowed investigating the relative importance of episodic wet-weather versus "continuous" dry-weather loads with a probabilistic approach to account for pollutant variability within the urban flows. The analysis at the scale of one year showed that storm events are significant contributors to the impacts

Aerosols and their Impact on Radiation, Clouds, Precipitation & Severe Weather Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Zhanqing; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Fan, Jiwen

2017-09-22

Aerosols, the tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere, have been in the forefront of environmental and climate change sciences as the primary atmospheric pollutant and external force affecting Earth’s weather and climate. There are two dominant mechanisms by which aerosols affect weather and climate: aerosol-radiation interactions (ARI) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). ARI arises from aerosol scattering and absorption, which alters the radiation budgets of the atmosphere and surface, while ACI is rooted to the fact that aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Both ARI and ACI are coupled with atmospheric dynamics to produce a chain of complex interactions with a large range of meteorological variables that influence both weather and climate. Elaborated here are the impacts of aerosols on the radiation budget, clouds (microphysics, structure, and lifetime), precipitation, and severe weather events (lightning, thunderstorms, hail, and tornados). Depending on environmental variables and aerosol properties, the effects can be both positive and negative, posing the largest uncertainties in the external forcing of the climate system. This has considerably hindered our ability in projecting future climate changes and in doing accurate numerical weather predictions.

The effect of weather on morphometric traits of juvenile cliff swallows

Science.gov (United States)

Roche, Erin A.; Brown, Mary Bomberger; Brown, Charles R.

2015-01-01

Episodes of food deprivation may change how nestling birds allocate energy to the growth of skeletal and feather morphological traits during development. Cliff swallows (Petrochelidon pyrrhonota) are colonial, insectivorous birds that regularly experience brief periods of severe weather-induced food deprivation during the nesting season which may affect offspring development. We investigated how annual variation in timing of rearing and weather were associated with length of wing and tail, skeletal traits, and body mass in juvenile cliff swallows reared in southwestern Nebraska during 2001–2006. As predicted under conditions of food deprivation, nestling skeletal and feather measurements were generally smaller in cooler years. However, variability explained by weather was small, suggesting that morphometric traits of juvenile cliff swallows were not highly sensitive to weather conditions experienced during this study. Measurements of juvenile morphological traits were positively correlated with measurements taken as adults, meaning that any variation among juveniles in response to rearing conditions showed evidence of persisting into a bird’s first breeding season. Our results show that body size in this species is phenotypically plastic and influenced, in part, by weather variables.

Investigation of time and weather effects on crash types using full Bayesian multivariate Poisson lognormal models.

Science.gov (United States)

El-Basyouny, Karim; Barua, Sudip; Islam, Md Tazul

2014-12-01

Previous research shows that various weather elements have significant effects on crash occurrence and risk; however, little is known about how these elements affect different crash types. Consequently, this study investigates the impact of weather elements and sudden extreme snow or rain weather changes on crash type. Multivariate models were used for seven crash types using five years of daily weather and crash data collected for the entire City of Edmonton. In addition, the yearly trend and random variation of parameters across the years were analyzed by using four different modeling formulations. The proposed models were estimated in a full Bayesian context via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The multivariate Poisson lognormal model with yearly varying coefficients provided the best fit for the data according to Deviance Information Criteria. Overall, results showed that temperature and snowfall were statistically significant with intuitive signs (crashes decrease with increasing temperature; crashes increase as snowfall intensity increases) for all crash types, while rainfall was mostly insignificant. Previous snow showed mixed results, being statistically significant and positively related to certain crash types, while negatively related or insignificant in other cases. Maximum wind gust speed was found mostly insignificant with a few exceptions that were positively related to crash type. Major snow or rain events following a dry weather condition were highly significant and positively related to three crash types: Follow-Too-Close, Stop-Sign-Violation, and Ran-Off-Road crashes. The day-of-the-week dummy variables were statistically significant, indicating a possible weekly variation in exposure. Transportation authorities might use the above results to improve road safety by providing drivers with information regarding the risk of certain crash types for a particular weather condition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

2017-12-01

Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Sijun; Chen, Jiaping; Wang, Jianming; Wu, Zhuchao; Wu, Weihua; Xu, Zhiwei; Hu, Wenbiao; Xu, Fei; Tong, Shilu; Shen, Hongbing

2017-10-01

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China and an accurate prediction of epidemic can improve the effectiveness of HFMD control. This study aims to develop a weather-based forecasting model for HFMD using the information on climatic variables and HFMD surveillance in Nanjing, China. Daily data on HFMD cases and meteorological variables between 2010 and 2015 were acquired from the Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed and validated by dividing HFMD infection data into two datasets: the data from 2010 to 2013 were used to construct a model and those from 2014 to 2015 were used to validate it. Moreover, we used weekly prediction for the data between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015 and leave-1-week-out prediction was used to validate the performance of model prediction. SARIMA (2,0,0)52 associated with the average temperature at lag of 1 week appeared to be the best model (R 2 = 0.936, BIC = 8.465), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. In the validation of the constructed model, the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well between 2014 and 2015. There was a high agreement rate between the predicted values and the observed values (sensitivity 80%, specificity 96.63%). This study suggests that the SARIMA model with average temperature could be used as an important tool for early detection and prediction of HFMD outbreaks in Nanjing, China.

Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction

Science.gov (United States)

Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; McDonald, T.L.

1997-01-01

1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models.2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters.3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates.4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity.5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring.6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years.7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more

On nutrients and trace metals: Effects from Enhanced Weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Amann, T.; Hartmann, J.

2015-12-01

The application of rock flour on suitable land ("Enhanced Weathering") is one proposed strategy to reduce the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At the same time it is an old and established method to add fertiliser and influence soil properties. Investigations of this method focused on the impact on the carbonate system, as well as on engineering aspects of a large-scale application, but potential side effects were never discussed quantitatively. We analysed about 120,000 geochemically characterised volcanic rock samples from the literature. Applying basic statistics, theoretical release rates of nutrients and potential contaminants by Enhanced Weathering were evaluated for typical rock types. Applied rock material can contain significant amounts of essential or beneficial nutrients (potassium, phosphorus, micronutrients). Their release can partly cover the demand of major crops like wheat, rice or corn, thereby increasing crop yield on degraded soils. However, the concentrations of considered elements are variable within a specific rock type, depending on the geological setting. High heavy metal concentrations are found in (ultra-) basic rocks, the class with the highest CO2 drawdown potential. More acidic rocks contain less or no critical amounts, but sequester less CO2. Findings show that the rock selection determines the capability to supply significant amounts of nutrients, which could partly substitute industrial mineral fertiliser usage. At the same time, the release of harmful trace element has to be considered. Through careful selection of regionally available rocks, benefits could be maximised and drawbacks reduced. The deployment of Enhanced Weathering to sequester CO2 and to ameliorate soils necessitates an ecosystem management, considering the release and fate of weathered elements in plants, soils and water. Cropland with degraded soils would benefit while having a net negative CO2 effect, while other carbon dioxide removal strategies, like

Weather and rheumatoid arthritis: the role of the microclimate near the skin

OpenAIRE

Patberg, Wiebe Reinier

2005-01-01

Although there is a widespread opinion that weather affects arthritis, scientific proof is lacking. The number of studies on this subject is small, which might be explained by the difficulty of monitoring disease activity in RA. Subjective variables like pain can be judged every day, but the daily determination of objective variables in the laboratory would be too expensive, and too much a burden to the patient. About half of the studies did not find any effect of the weather, and the conclus...

Variability of Blowing Dust Weather Frequency over Semi-Arid Areas of China (Baicheng, Jilin Province and Relationships with Climatic Factors During 1951 - 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yun-Fei Wu

2011-01-01

Full Text Available We analyzed the variability of blowing dust weather frequency (BDWF and patterns in climatic factors over Baicheng for the period 1951 - 2006 in this study. The data showed that blowing dust over Baicheng occurs intensively during the spring and shows significant inter-decadal variability. One of the main findings is that the occurrence of blowing dust has significantly decreased after the mid-1980s. The mean wind speed (WS, diurnal temperature range (DTR, relative humidity (RH and precipitation at Baicheng during the spring show decreasing trends. The decreasing trends of the mean WS and DTR are significant at 99% confidence levels according to the t-test; the dataset also indicated a sharp decrease in WS occurred after the mid-1980s. The mean surface air temperature (SAT escalated in a fluctuating manner during 1951 - 2006. BDWF at Baicheng was significantly related to local WS, SAT and DTR during the spring [correlation coefficients (CCs are 0.41, -0.47 and 0.36, respectively]. The correlation between BDWF at Baicheng and selected climatic factors over the sand-dust source regions and transmission paths were also calculated. We found that BDWF is well correlated to the mean WS and SAT during the spring, with CCs of 0.45 and -0.48, respectively. The most likely causes for the dramatic decrease observed in BDWF after the mid-1980s were related to the adjustment of large-scale circulation patterns in response to a decrease of meridional temperature differences, the weakening of steering westerlies and the strengthening of downward motions that has occurred at the middle latitudes of eastern Eurasia in recent decades.

Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

Science.gov (United States)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel; Tang, Chung-Muh

1989-01-01

Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized.

Weather data for simplified energy calculation methods. Volume II. Middle United States: TRY data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olsen, A.R.; Moreno, S.; Deringer, J.; Watson, C.R.

1984-08-01

The objective of this report is to provide a source of weather data for direct use with a number of simplified energy calculation methods available today. Complete weather data for a number of cities in the United States are provided for use in the following methods: degree hour, modified degree hour, bin, modified bin, and variable degree day. This report contains sets of weather data for 22 cities in the continental United States using Test Reference Year (TRY) source weather data. The weather data at each city has been summarized in a number of ways to provide differing levels of detail necessary for alternative simplified energy calculation methods. Weather variables summarized include dry bulb and wet bulb temperature, percent relative humidity, humidity ratio, wind speed, percent possible sunshine, percent diffuse solar radiation, total solar radiation on horizontal and vertical surfaces, and solar heat gain through standard DSA glass. Monthly and annual summaries, in some cases by time of day, are available. These summaries are produced in a series of nine computer generated tables.

Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Bradford, J.B.

2011-01-01

Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 ?? 8 km2 areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Evaluation of a variable speed limit system for wet and extreme weather conditions : phase 1 report.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-01

Weather presents considerable challenges to the highway system, both in terms of safety and operations. From a safety standpoint, weather (i.e. precipitation in the form of rain, snow or ice) reduces pavement friction, thus increasing the potential f...

Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

Science.gov (United States)

Isaac, G. A.; Joe, P. I.; Mailhot, J.; Bailey, M.; Bélair, S.; Boudala, F. S.; Brugman, M.; Campos, E.; Carpenter, R. L.; Crawford, R. W.; Cober, S. G.; Denis, B.; Doyle, C.; Reeves, H. D.; Gultepe, I.; Haiden, T.; Heckman, I.; Huang, L. X.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Mo, R.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Smith, T.; Stewart, R. E.; Wang, D.; Wilson, L. J.

2014-01-01

A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0-6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.

A Fresh Look at Weather Impact on Peak Electricity Demand and Energy Use of Buildings Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

2013-05-01

Buildings consume more than one third of the world?s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980 to 2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: 1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does on energy use in buildings; 2) the simulated energy use using the TMY3 weather data is not necessarily representative of the average energy use over a long period, and the TMY3 results can be significantly higher or lower than those from the AMY data; 3) the weather impact is greater for buildings in colder climates than warmer climates; 4) the weather impact on the medium-sized office building was the greatest, followed by the large office and then the small

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches.

Science.gov (United States)

Delerce, Sylvain; Dorado, Hugo; Grillon, Alexandre; Rebolledo, Maria Camila; Prager, Steven D; Patiño, Victor Hugo; Garcés Varón, Gabriel; Jiménez, Daniel

2016-01-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of data mining for

Assessing Weather-Yield Relationships in Rice at Local Scale Using Data Mining Approaches.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sylvain Delerce

Full Text Available Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability have become important issues for farmers, and climate change has been shown to increase them. Simultaneously farmers and agricultural organizations are increasingly collecting observational data about in situ crop performance. Agriculture thus needs new tools to cope with changing environmental conditions and to take advantage of these data. Data mining techniques make it possible to extract embedded knowledge associated with farmer experiences from these large observational datasets in order to identify best practices for adapting to climate variability. We introduce new approaches through a case study on irrigated and rainfed rice in Colombia. Preexisting observational datasets of commercial harvest records were combined with in situ daily weather series. Using Conditional Inference Forest and clustering techniques, we assessed the relationships between climatic factors and crop yield variability at the local scale for specific cultivars and growth stages. The analysis showed clear relationships in the various location-cultivar combinations, with climatic factors explaining 6 to 46% of spatiotemporal variability in yield, and with crop responses to weather being non-linear and cultivar-specific. Climatic factors affected cultivars differently during each stage of development. For instance, one cultivar was affected by high nighttime temperatures in the reproductive stage but responded positively to accumulated solar radiation during the ripening stage. Another was affected by high nighttime temperatures during both the vegetative and reproductive stages. Clustering of the weather patterns corresponding to individual cropping events revealed different groups of weather patterns for irrigated and rainfed systems with contrasting yield levels. Best-suited cultivars were identified for some weather patterns, making weather-site-specific recommendations possible. This study illustrates the potential of

WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Botos Horia Mircea

2011-07-01

Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

A Analysis of the Development of Weather Concepts

Science.gov (United States)

Mroz, Paul John

Weather information in all forms is poorly understood and often misinterpreted by the general public. Weather literacy is necessary for everyone if critical weather messages, designed to save lives and protect property, are to be effective. The purpose of this study was to seek content and causal evidence for a developmental concept of Weather Information Processing that was consistent with Piagetian Cognitive Stages of Development. Three ordinal Content Stages Of Weather Information Processing (phenomena, process and mechanism) and three ordinal Causal Explanation Stages Of Weather Information Processing (non-real, natural, and scientifically valid abstract ideas) were explored for their relationship with Piaget's Pre-Operational, Concrete and Formal Stages of Development. One hundred and fifty -five elementary and secondary school students from two school districts were administered a written Piagetian exam. Commonly available television weather programs were categorized, randomly assigned and viewed by 42 randomly selected students who were administered three Piagetian tasks. Students were clinically interviewed for the level of content information and causal explanations (reasoning). Results indicated that content information and causal reasoning of students to televised weather information is significantly related (p Cognitive Stages of Development. Two Piagetian logic operations (seriation and correlation) were established as significantly different (p Information Processing and have implications for teaching and presenting weather information to the public.

Solar ramping distributions over multiple timescales and weather patterns

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hummon, Marissa; Orwig, Kirsten [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO (United States)

2011-07-01

As greater amounts of solar power are included in the power system it is becoming increasingly important to have a better characterization of the variability of solar power over the timescales that are relevant to power system operations. In this paper, we examine the distribution of ramp events that occur in global horizontal irradiance measurements from a number of sites in the western United States. The distributions are found to be significantly non-normal over multiple timescales from 1 minute to 1 hour. A hyberbolic distribution is suggested for more accurately representing the observed ramp distributions. Additionally, the ramp distributions that occur during different classifications of weather patterns are characterized and significant differences are observed between patterns. (orig.)

Weather sensitivity for zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada: a quantitative analysis of historical data

Science.gov (United States)

Hewer, Micah J.; Gough, William A.

2016-11-01

Based on a case study of the Toronto Zoo (Canada), multivariate regression analysis, involving both climatic and social variables, was employed to assess the relationship between daily weather and visitation. Zoo visitation was most sensitive to weather variability during the shoulder season, followed by the off-season and, then, the peak season. Temperature was the most influential weather variable in relation to zoo visitation, followed by precipitation and, then, wind speed. The intensity and direction of the social and climatic variables varied between seasons. Temperatures exceeding 26 °C during the shoulder season and 28 °C during the peak season suggested a behavioural threshold associated with zoo visitation, with conditions becoming too warm for certain segments of the zoo visitor market, causing visitor numbers to decline. Even light amounts of precipitation caused average visitor numbers to decline by nearly 50 %. Increasing wind speeds also demonstrated a negative influence on zoo visitation.

Weather perceptions, holidays satisfaction and perceived attractiveness of domestic vacationing in The Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jeuring, Jelmer Hendrik Gerard

Despite variable and relatively cool summer weather, domestic vacations in countries around the North Sea are an important type of tourism. However, relations between weather and domestic tourism in this region remain understudied. A quantitative research (n = 326) among domestic camping tourists in

Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1997-12-31

The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

Development of positron annihilation spectroscopy to test accelerated weathering of protective polymer coatings

CERN Document Server

Zhang, R; Chen, H M; Mallon, P; Sandreczki, T C; Richardson, J R; Jean, Y C; Nielsen, B; Suzuki, R; Ohdaira, T

2000-01-01

A variable mono-energetic positron beam with a computer-controlled system has recently been constructed at the University of Missouri-Kansas City for weathering studies of polymeric coatings. The beam is designed to measure the S-parameter from Doppler-broadening energy spectra and the sub-nanometer defect properties from positron annihilation lifetimes (PAL). Significant variations of S-parameter and ortho-positronium intensity in coatings, as obtained from the newly built beam and from the Electrotechnical Laboratory's beam, respectively, are observed as a function of depth and exposure time due to the Xe-light irradiation. A high sensitivity of positron annihilation signal response to the early stage of degradation is observed. Development of positron annihilation spectroscopy to test accelerated weathering of polymeric coatings is discussed.

Balancing Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather regimes.

Science.gov (United States)

Grams, Christian M; Beerli, Remo; Pfenninger, Stefan; Staffell, Iain; Wernli, Heini

2017-08-01

As wind and solar power provide a growing share of Europe's electricity1, understanding and accommodating their variability on multiple timescales remains a critical problem. On weekly timescales, variability is related to long-lasting weather conditions, called weather regimes2-5, which can cause lulls with a loss of wind power across neighbouring countries6. Here we show that weather regimes provide a meteorological explanation for multi-day fluctuations in Europe's wind power and can help guide new deployment pathways which minimise this variability. Mean generation during different regimes currently ranges from 22 GW to 44 GW and is expected to triple by 2030 with current planning strategies. However, balancing future wind capacity across regions with contrasting inter-regime behaviour - specifically deploying in the Balkans instead of the North Sea - would almost eliminate these output variations, maintain mean generation, and increase fleet-wide minimum output. Solar photovoltaics could balance low-wind regimes locally, but only by expanding current capacity tenfold. New deployment strategies based on an understanding of continent-scale wind patterns and pan-European collaboration could enable a high share of wind energy whilst minimising the negative impacts of output variability.

Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

Science.gov (United States)

Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

2009-12-01

In this study we explore the potential for re-insurance schemes built on regional climatic forecasts. We focus on micro-insurance contracts indexed on precipitation in 9 villages in Kenya, Tanzania (Eastern Africa) and Malawi (Southern Africa), and analyze the precipitation patterns and payouts resulting from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inability to manage future climate risk represents a “poverty trap” for several African regions. Weather shocks can potentially destabilize not only household, but also entire countries. Governments in drought-prone countries, donors and relief agencies are becoming aware of the importance to develop an ex-ante risk management framework for weather risk. Joint efforts to develop innovative mechanisms to spread and pool risk such as microinsurance and microcredit are currently being designed in several developing countries. While ENSO is an important component in modulating the rainfall regime in tropical Africa, the micro-insurance experiments currently under development to address drought risk among smallholder farmers in this region do not take into account ENSO monitoring or forecasting yet. ENSO forecasts could be integrated in the contracts and reinsurance schemes could be designed at the continental scale taking advantage of the different impact of ENSO on different regions. ENSO is associated to a bipolar precipitation pattern in Southern and Eastern Africa. La Niña years (i.e. Cold ENSO Episodes) are characterized by dry climate in Eastern Africa and wet climate in Southern Africa. During El Niño (or Warm Episode) the precipitation dipole is inverted, and Eastern Africa experiences increased probability for above normal rainfall (Halpert and Ropelewski, 1992, Journal of Climate). Our study represents the first exercise in trying to include ENSO forecasts in micro weather index insurance contract design. We analyzed the contracts payouts with respect to climate variability. In particular (i) we simulated

Linking carbon and hydrologic fluxes in the critical zone: Observations from high-frequency monitoring of a weathered bedrock vadose zone

Science.gov (United States)

Tune, A. K.; Druhan, J. L.; Wang, J.; Cargill, S.; Murphy, C.; Rempe, D. M.

2017-12-01

A principle challenge in quantifying feedbacks between continental weathering and atmospheric CO2 is to improve understanding of how biogeochemical processes in the critical zone influence the distribution and mobility of organic and inorganic carbon. In particular, in landscapes characterized by thin soils and heterogeneous weathered and fractured bedrock, little data exist to inform and constrain predictive models for carbon dynamics. Here, we present the results of an intensive water and gas sampling campaign across an 18 m thick, variably saturated argillite weathering profile in the Eel River CZO. We monitor water content in situ and regularly collect samples of freely-draining water, tightly-held water, and gas through wet and dry seasons using a novel Vadose-zone Monitoring System (VMS) consisting of sensors and samplers distributed across a 20 m long inclined borehole. This novel approach facilitates the interception of gas and water during transport across the entire variably saturated weathering profile. The data demonstrate that seasonal changes in saturation control the vertical distribution and mobility of carbon in the fractured critical zone. Concentrations of gaseous CO2, O2, and dissolved organic and inorganic carbon fluctuate significantly and repeatably with seasonal additions of water infiltrating the weathered bedrock. A persistent vertical structure in the concentrations of dissolved phases and gas concentrations broadly corresponds to depths associated with unsaturated, seasonally saturated, and chronically saturated zones. Associated variations in the vertical structure of mineralogy and elemental composition, including solid phase organic carbon content, are observed in core obtained during drilling. Together, our observations indicate significant respiration of organic carbon at depths greater than the base of the soil, and thus motivate further investigation of the role of heterogeneous weathered, bedrock environments, which are needed to

Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Theofilatos, Athanasios

2017-06-01

The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

2013-12-01

Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching

Temporal variability of the quality of Taraxacum officinale seed progeny from the East-Ural radioactive trace: is there an interaction between low level radiation and weather conditions?

Science.gov (United States)

Pozolotina, Vera N; Antonova, Elena V

2017-03-01

The multiple stressors, in different combinations, may impact differently upon seed quality, and low-level doses of radiation may enhance synergistic or antagonistic effects. During 1991-2014 we investigated the quality of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale s.l.) seed progeny growing under low-level radiation exposure at the East-Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT) area (result of the Kyshtym accident, Russia), and in plants from areas exposed to background radiation. The viability of the dandelion seed progeny was assessed according to chronic radiation exposure, accounting for the variability of weather conditions among years. Environmental factors (temperature, precipitation, and their ratio in different months) can modify the radiobiological effects. We found a wide range of possible responses to multiple stressors: inhibition, stimulation, and indifferent effects in different seasons. The intraspecific variability of the quality of dandelion seed progeny was greatly increased under conditions of low doses of chronic irradiation. Temperature was the most significant factor for seed progeny formation in the EURT zone, whereas the sums of precipitation and ratios of precipitation to temperature dominantly affected organisms from the background population.

Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, Hamish; Evans, Jason P.

2018-05-01

High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from - 337 (- 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and - 237 (- 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from - 11 to + 10 in autumn and - 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.

Ionospheric TEC Weather Map Over South America

Science.gov (United States)

Takahashi, H.; Wrasse, C. M.; Denardini, C. M.; Pádua, M. B.; de Paula, E. R.; Costa, S. M. A.; Otsuka, Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Monico, J. F. Galera; Ivo, A.; Sant'Anna, N.

2016-11-01

Ionospheric weather maps using the total electron content (TEC) monitored by ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers over South American continent, TECMAP, have been operationally produced by Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais's Space Weather Study and Monitoring Program (Estudo e Monitoramento Brasileiro de Clima Especial) since 2013. In order to cover the whole continent, four GNSS receiver networks, (Rede Brasileiro de Monitoramento Contínuo) RBMC/Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, Low-latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network, International GNSS Service, and Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo, in total 140 sites, have been used. TECMAPs with a time resolution of 10 min are produced in 12 h time delay. Spatial resolution of the map is rather low, varying between 50 and 500 km depending on the density of the observation points. Large day-to-day variabilities of the equatorial ionization anomaly have been observed. Spatial gradient of TEC from the anomaly trough (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m-2 (TECU) 80) causes a large ionospheric range delay in the GNSS positioning system. Ionospheric plasma bubbles, their seeding and development, could be monitored. This plasma density (spatial and temporal) variability causes not only the GNSS-based positioning error but also radio wave scintillations. Monitoring of these phenomena by TEC mapping becomes an important issue for space weather concern for high-technology positioning system and telecommunication.

A Study of the Relationship between Weather Variables and Electric Power Demand inside a Smart Grid/Smart World Framework

Science.gov (United States)

Hernández, Luis; Baladrón, Carlos; Aguiar, Javier M.; Calavia, Lorena; Carro, Belén; Sánchez-Esguevillas, Antonio; Cook, Diane J.; Chinarro, David; Gómez, Jorge

2012-01-01

One of the main challenges of today's society is the need to fulfill at the same time the two sides of the dichotomy between the growing energy demand and the need to look after the environment. Smart Grids are one of the answers: intelligent energy grids which retrieve data about the environment through extensive sensor networks and react accordingly to optimize resource consumption. In order to do this, the Smart Grids need to understand the existing relationship between energy demand and a set of relevant climatic variables. All smart “systems” (buildings, cities, homes, consumers, etc.) have the potential to employ their intelligence for self-adaptation to climate conditions. After introducing the Smart World, a global framework for the collaboration of these smart systems, this paper presents the relationship found at experimental level between a range of relevant weather variables and electric power demand patterns, presenting a case study using an agent-based system, and emphasizing the need to consider this relationship in certain Smart World (and specifically Smart Grid and microgrid) applications.

Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP): Technical Assistance Summary

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hollander, A.

2014-09-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy efficiency and health and safety of low-income residences without the utilization of additional taxpayer funding. Sixteen WIPP grantees were awarded a total of $30 million in Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) funds in September 2010. These projects focused on: including nontraditional partners in weatherization service delivery; leveraging significant non-federal funding; and improving the effectiveness of low-income weatherization through the use of new materials, technologies, behavior-change models, and processes.

Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda

Science.gov (United States)

Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Omony, George William

2018-01-01

This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa (EA), using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on observed daily rainfall from 23 weather stations, with length varying within 1961 and 2010. The indices considered are: wet days ( R ≥1 mm), annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity index (SDII), heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 20 mm), and severe precipitation ( R ≥ 50 mm). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical analysis was carried out to identify trends in the data. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Almost all indices considered are decreasing with time. The analysis shows that the PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation, and severe precipitation are generally declining insignificantly at 5 % significant level. The PRCPTOT is evidently decreasing over Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) as compared to other parts of EA. The number of days that recorded heavy rainfall is generally decreasing but starts to rise in the last decade although the changes are insignificant. Both PRCPTOT and heavy precipitation show a recovery in trend starting in the 1990s. The SDII shows a reduction in most areas, especially the in ASAL. The changes give a possible indication of the ongoing climate variability and change which modify the rainfall regime of EA. The results form a basis for further research, utilizing longer datasets over the entire region to reduce the generalizations made herein. Continuous monitoring of extreme events in EA is critical, given that rainfall is projected to increase in the twenty-first century.

Objective local weather types with applications on urban air pollution and on mortality with chronicle illnesses

Science.gov (United States)

Mika, Janos; Ivady, Anett; Fulop, Andrea; Makra, László

2010-05-01

Synoptic climatology i.e. classification of the endless variability of the everyday weather states according to the pressure configuration and frontal systems relative to the point, or region of interest has long history in meteorology. Its logical alternative, i.e. classification of weather according to the observed local weather elements was less popular until the recent times when the numerical weather forecasts became able to outline not only the synoptic situation, but the near-surface meteorological variables, as well. Nowadays the computer-based statistical facilities are able to operate with matrices of multivariate diurnal samples, as well. The paper presents an attempt to define a set of local weather types using point-wise series at five rural stations, Szombathely, Pécs, Budapest, Szeged és Debrecen in the 1961-1990 reference period. Ten local variables are used, i.e. the diurnal mean temperature, the diurnal temperature range; the cloudiness, the sunshine duration, the water vapour pressure, the precipitation in a logarithmic scale, also differing trace (below 0.1 mm) and no precipitation, the relative humidity and wind speed, including the more extremity indicators of the two latter parameters, i.e. number of hours with over 80 % relative humidity and over 15 m/s wind gusts. Factor analysis of these ten variables was performed leading to 5 fairly independent variables retained for cluster analysis to obtain the local weather types. Hierarchical cluster analysis was performed to classify the 840-930 days within each month of the 30 years period. Furthers neighbour approach was preferred based on Euclidean metrics to establish optimum number of types. The 12 months and the 5 stations exhibited slightly different results but the optimum number of the types was always between 4 and 12 which is a quite reasonable number from practical considerations. According to a further reasonable compromise, the common number of the types not too bad in either

Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2017-01-01

The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology...... to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case....

WEATHER ON OTHER WORLDS. III. A SURVEY FOR T DWARFS WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE OPTICAL VARIABILITY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinze, Aren N.; Metchev, Stanimir; Kellogg, Kendra

2015-01-01

We have monitored 12 T dwarfs with the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope using an F814W filter (0.7-0.95 μm) to place in context the remarkable 10%-20% variability exhibited by the nearby T dwarf Luhman 16B in this wavelength regime. The motivation was the poorly known red optical behavior of T dwarfs, which have been monitored almost exclusively at infrared wavelengths, where variability amplitudes greater than 10% have been found to be very rare. We detect highly significant variability in two T dwarfs. The T2.5 dwarf 2MASS 13243559+6358284 shows consistent ∼17% variability on two consecutive nights. The T2 dwarf 2MASS J16291840+0335371 exhibits ∼10% variability that may evolve from night to night, similarly to Luhman 16B. Both objects were previously known to be variable in the infrared, but with considerably lower amplitudes. We also find evidence for variability in the T6 dwarf J162414.37+002915.6, but since it has lower significance, we conservatively refrain from claiming this object as a variable. We explore and rule out various telluric effects, demonstrating that the variations we detect are astrophysically real. We suggest that high-amplitude photometric variability for T dwarfs is likely more common in the red optical than at longer wavelengths. The two new members of the growing class of high-amplitude variable T dwarfs offer excellent prospects for further study of cloud structures and their evolution

WEATHER ON OTHER WORLDS. III. A SURVEY FOR T DWARFS WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE OPTICAL VARIABILITY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heinze, Aren N.; Metchev, Stanimir [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3800 (United States); Kellogg, Kendra, E-mail: aren.heinze@stonybrook.edu, E-mail: smetchev@uwo.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond St, London, ON N6A 3K7 (Canada)

2015-03-10

We have monitored 12 T dwarfs with the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope using an F814W filter (0.7-0.95 μm) to place in context the remarkable 10%-20% variability exhibited by the nearby T dwarf Luhman 16B in this wavelength regime. The motivation was the poorly known red optical behavior of T dwarfs, which have been monitored almost exclusively at infrared wavelengths, where variability amplitudes greater than 10% have been found to be very rare. We detect highly significant variability in two T dwarfs. The T2.5 dwarf 2MASS 13243559+6358284 shows consistent ∼17% variability on two consecutive nights. The T2 dwarf 2MASS J16291840+0335371 exhibits ∼10% variability that may evolve from night to night, similarly to Luhman 16B. Both objects were previously known to be variable in the infrared, but with considerably lower amplitudes. We also find evidence for variability in the T6 dwarf J162414.37+002915.6, but since it has lower significance, we conservatively refrain from claiming this object as a variable. We explore and rule out various telluric effects, demonstrating that the variations we detect are astrophysically real. We suggest that high-amplitude photometric variability for T dwarfs is likely more common in the red optical than at longer wavelengths. The two new members of the growing class of high-amplitude variable T dwarfs offer excellent prospects for further study of cloud structures and their evolution.

A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

2018-02-01

Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

POPULATION SYNCHRONY WITHIN AND AMONG LEPIDOPTERA SPECIES IN RELATION TO WEATHER, PHYLOGENY, AND LARVEL PHENOLOGY

Science.gov (United States)

1. The population dynamics of native herbivore species in central Appalachian deciduous forests were studied by analysing patterns of synchrony among intra- and interspecific populations and weather. 2. Spatial synchrony of 10 Lepidoptera species and three weather variables (min...

Radiogenic Isotopes in Weathering and Hydrology

Science.gov (United States)

Blum, J. D.; Erel, Y.

2003-12-01

as on the observation that radiogenic isotopes are sometimes preferentially released compared to nonradiogenic isotopes of the same element during acid leaching of rocks ( Hart and Tilton, 1966; Silver et al., 1984; Erel et al., 1991). A major finding of these investigations was that weathering often results in anomalously young Rb-Sr isochron ages, and discordant Pb-Pb ages. Rubidium is generally retained relative to strontium in whole-rock samples, and in some cases radiogenic strontium and lead are lost preferentially to common strontium and lead from weathered minerals.The most widely utilized of these isotopic systems is Rb-Sr, followed by U-Pb. The K-Ar system is not directly applicable to most studies of rock-water interaction, because argon is a noble gas, and upon release during mineral weathering mixes with atmospheric argon, limiting its usefulness as a tracer in most weathering applications. Argon and other noble gas isotopes have, however, found important applications in hydrology (see Chapter 5.15). Three other isotopic systems commonly used in geochronology and petrology include Sm-Nd, Lu-Hf, and Re-Os. These parent and daughter elements are in very low abundance and concentrated in trace mineral phases. Sm-Nd, Lu-Hf, and Re-Os have been used in a few weathering studies but have not been utilized extensively in investigations of weathering and hydrology.The decay of 87Rb to 87Sr has a half-life of 48.8 Gyr, and this radioactive decay results in natural variability in the 87Sr/86Sr ratio in rubidium-bearing minerals (e.g., Blum, 1995). The trace elements rubidium and strontium are geochemically similar to the major elements potassium and calcium, respectively. Therefore, minerals with high K/Ca ratios develop high 87Sr/86Sr ratios over geologic timescales. Once released into the hydrosphere, strontium retains its isotopic composition without significant fractionation by geochemical or biological processes, and is therefore a good tracer for sources and

National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

Prioritization Scheme for Proposed Road Weather Information System Sites: Montana Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Al-Kaisy

2017-08-01

Full Text Available A model for prioritization of new proposed environmental sensor station (ESS sites is developed and presented in this paper. The model assesses the overall merit (OM of a proposed ESS site as part of a Road Weather Information System (RWIS using weather, traffic, and safety data among other variables. The purpose of the proposed model is to help in selecting optimum sites for new ESS locations, which is important in guiding RWIS system expansion. Inputs to the OM model include weather index (WI, traffic index (TI, crash index, geographic coverage, and opportunistic factors. The WI at a proposed site is determined using multiple indicators of weather severity and variability. The crash index, another major input to the OM model, incorporates crash rate along the route and the percentage of weather-related crashes over the analysis period. The TI, in turn, reflects the amount of travel on the highway network in the area surrounding the proposed ESS site. The fourth input to the merit model accounts for the ESS existing coverage in the area where the proposed site is located, while the fifth and last input is concerned with the availability and ease of access to power and communications. Model coefficients are represented by weights that reflect the contribution of each input (variable to the OM of the ESS site. Those weights are user-specified and should be selected to reflect the agency preferences and priorities. The application of the proposed merit model on sample sites in Montana demonstrated the utility of the model in ranking candidate sites using data readily available to highway agencies.

Climate Variability Structures Plant Community Dynamics in Mediterranean Restored and Reference Tidal Wetlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dylan E. Chapple

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In Mediterranean regions and other areas with variable climates, interannual weather variability may impact ecosystem dynamics, and by extension ecological restoration projects. Conditions at reference sites, which are often used to evaluate restoration projects, may also be influenced by weather variability, confounding interpretations of restoration outcomes. To better understand the influence of weather variability on plant community dynamics, we explore change in a vegetation dataset collected between 1990 and 2005 at a historic tidal wetland reference site and a nearby tidal wetland restoration project initiated in 1976 in California’s San Francisco (SF Bay. To determine the factors influencing reference and restoration trajectories, we examine changes in plant community identity in relation to annual salinity levels in the SF Bay, annual rainfall, and tidal channel structure. Over the entire study period, both sites experienced significant directional change away from the 1990 community. Community change was accelerated following low salinity conditions that resulted from strong El Niño events in 1994–1995 and 1997–1998. Overall rates of change were greater at the restoration site and driven by a combination of dominant and sub-dominant species, whereas change at the reference site was driven by sub-dominant species. Sub-dominant species first appeared at the restoration site in 1996 and incrementally increased during each subsequent year, whereas sub-dominant species cover at the reference site peaked in 1999 and subsequently declined. Our results show that frequent, long-term monitoring is needed to adequately capture plant community dynamics in variable Mediterranean ecosystems and demonstrate the need for expanding restoration monitoring and timing restoration actions to match weather conditions.

Aerosol climatology and planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by synoptic weather types

OpenAIRE

M. Collaud Coen; E. Weingartner; M. Furger; S. Nyeki; A. S. H. Prévôt; M. Steinbacher; U. Baltensperger

2011-01-01

Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration) and trace gases (CO, NO_x, SO₂) measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l.) have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Schüepp synoptic weather type of the Alps (SYNALP) classification from the Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS) was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the wh...

The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Where Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillips, T J; Potter, G L; Williamson, D L; Cederwall, R T; Boyle, J S; Fiorino, M; Hnilo, J J; Olson, J G; Xie, S; Yio, J J

2003-11-21

To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands, in particular, that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provied that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be similarly tested. In order to further this method for evaluating and analyzing parameterizations in climate GCMs, the USDOE is funding a joint venture of its Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT). This article elaborates the scientific rationale for CAPT, discusses technical aspects of its methodology, and presents examples of its implementation in a representative climate GCM. Numerical weather prediction methods show promise for improving parameterizations in climate GCMs.

Location-Related Differences in Weathering Behaviors and Populations of Culturable Rock-Weathering Bacteria Along a Hillside of a Rock Mountain.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Qi; Wang, Rongrong; He, Linyan; Sheng, Xiafang

2017-05-01

Bacteria play important roles in rock weathering, elemental cycling, and soil formation. However, little is known about the weathering potential and population of bacteria inhabiting surfaces of rocks. In this study, we isolated bacteria from the top, middle, and bottom rock samples along a hillside of a rock (trachyte) mountain as well as adjacent soils and characterized rock-weathering behaviors and populations of the bacteria. Per gram of rock or surface soil, 10 6 -10 7 colony forming units were obtained and total 192 bacteria were isolated. Laboratory rock dissolution experiments indicated that the proportions of the highly effective Fe (ranging from 67 to 92 %), Al (ranging from 40 to 48 %), and Cu (ranging from 54 to 81 %) solubilizers were significantly higher in the top rock and soil samples, while the proportion of the highly effective Si (56 %) solubilizers was significantly higher in the middle rock samples. Furthermore, 78, 96, and 6 % of bacteria from the top rocks, soils, and middle rocks, respectively, significantly acidified the culture medium (pH bacteria (79 %) from the rocks were different to those from the soils and most of them (species level) have not been previously reported. Furthermore, location-specific rock-weathering bacterial populations were found and Bacillus species were the most (66 %) frequently isolated rock-weathering bacteria in the rocks based on cultivation methods. Notably, the top rocks and soils had the highest and lowest diversity of rock-weathering bacterial populations, respectively. The results suggested location-related differences in element (Si, Al, Fe, and Cu) releasing effectiveness and communities of rock-weathering bacteria along the hillside of the rock mountain.

Identifying Patterns in the Weather of Europe for Source Term Estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Klampanos, Iraklis; Pappas, Charalambos; Andronopoulos, Spyros; Davvetas, Athanasios; Ikonomopoulos, Andreas; Karkaletsis, Vangelis

2017-04-01

During emergencies that involve the release of hazardous substances into the atmosphere the potential health effects on the human population and the environment are of primary concern. Such events have occurred in the past, most notably involving radioactive and toxic substances. Examples of radioactive release events include the Chernobyl accident in 1986, as well as the more recent Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Often, the release of dangerous substances in the atmosphere is detected at locations different from the release origin. The objective of this work is the rapid estimation of such unknown sources shortly after the detection of dangerous substances in the atmosphere, with an initial focus on nuclear or radiological releases. Typically, after the detection of a radioactive substance in the atmosphere indicating the occurrence of an unknown release, the source location is estimated via inverse modelling. However, depending on factors such as the spatial resolution desired, traditional inverse modelling can be computationally time-consuming. This is especially true for cases where complex topography and weather conditions are involved and can therefore be problematic when timing is critical. Making use of machine learning techniques and the Big Data Europe platform1, our approach moves the bulk of the computation before any such event taking place, therefore allowing for rapid initial, albeit rougher, estimations regarding the source location. Our proposed approach is based on the automatic identification of weather patterns within the European continent. Identifying weather patterns has long been an active research field. Our case is differentiated by the fact that it focuses on plume dispersion patterns and these meteorological variables that affect dispersion the most. For a small set of recurrent weather patterns, we simulate hypothetical radioactive releases from a pre-known set of nuclear reactor locations and for different substance and temporal

Effects of intraday weather changes on asset returns and volatilities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hyein Shim

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Analyzing the intraday dataset on weather and market information with the use of the extended GJR-GARCH framework, this study explores in depth the weather effects on the asset returns and volatilities of the Korean stock and derivatives markets. Our intraday analyses contribute to the existing literature by going beyond the attempt of prior studies to capture the weather effects using the average daily observations alone. The empirical results document a modest presence of the weather effect on the returns and volatilities, though the significance of its impact is found to vary across different market conditions and indices. We also find that the return and volatility respond asymmetrically to extremely good and bad weather conditions. The intraday analyses show that the weather effect on the returns and volatilities is more statistically significant at the beginning of the working day or the lunch break, indicating the intraday weather effects on the financial market.

An Examination of the Space Weathering Patina of Lunar Rock 76015

Science.gov (United States)

Noble, S.; Chrisoffersen, R.; Rahman, Z.

2011-01-01

Space weathering discussions have generally centered around soils but exposed rocks will also incur the effects of weathering. Rocks have much longer surface lifetimes than an individual soil grain and thus record a longer history of exposure. By studying the weathering products which have built up on a rock surface, we can gain a deeper perspective on the weathering process and better assess the relative importance of various weathering components. The weathered coating, or patina, of the lunar rock 76015 has been previously studied under SEM and also by TEM using ultramicrotome sample preparation methods. However, to really understand the products involved in creating these coatings, it is helpful to examine the patina in cross section, something which is now possible though the use of Focused Ion Beam (FIB) sample prep techniques, which allows us to preserve intact the delicate stratigraphy of the patina coating and provides a unique cross-sectional view of the space weathering process. Several samples have been prepared from the rock and the coatings are found to be quite variable in thickness and composition from one sample to the next.

Changes in fire weather distributions: effects on predicted fire behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Lucy A. Salazar; Larry S. Bradshaw

1984-01-01

Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the...

Environmental variables associated with vacationers' sun protection at warm weather resorts in North America

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersen, Peter A.; Buller, David B.; Walkosz, Barbara J.; Scott, Michael D.; Beck, Larry; Liu, Xia; Abbott, Allison; Eye, Rachel

2016-01-01

Background: Vacationing at sunny, warm weather locations is a risk factor for excessive solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and skin cancer. Objectives: This study examined the association of environmental variables related to UV levels with vacationers' sun protection. Methods: Vacationers at 41 summer resorts in 17 states and 1 Canadian Province were interviewed (n=3531) and observed (N=4347) during 2012 and 2013. Clothing coverage, sunglasses, and shade use were observed. Use of sunscreen and sunburns were self-reported. Environmental information was recorded by research staff or acquired from ground stations and the weather service. Results: Temperature was positively associated with sun protection behaviors; however clothing coverage was negatively associated with temperature. Cloud cover was negatively associated with sun protection, with the exception of clothing coverage which was positively associated with it. Elevation showed a mixed pattern of associations with vacationer's sun protection. Latitude of a resort was negatively associated with most sun protection behaviors, such that sun protection increased at more southerly resorts. Similarly, the farther south a vacationer traveled to the resort, the less sun protection they employed. The UV index showed a weak, positive relationship with some sun protection behaviors even when controlling for temperature. Conclusions: Vacationers appeared aware that UV is higher at southern latitudes and may learn UV is intense when living in southern regions. However, many used temperature, an unreliable cue, to judge UV intensity and seemed to adjust clothing for warmth not UV protection. Efforts are needed to help individuals make more accurate sun safety decisions. - Highlights: • Vacationers poorly monitor and protect against environmental ultraviolet radiation (UVR). • On cloudy days vacationers fail to protect against UVR. • Temperature is erroneously used by vacationers as a marker for UVR

Environmental variables associated with vacationers' sun protection at warm weather resorts in North America

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andersen, Peter A., E-mail: westone47@gmail.com [School of Communication, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Buller, David B.; Walkosz, Barbara J. [Klein Buendel, Inc., 1667 Cole Boulevard, Suite 225, Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Scott, Michael D. [Mikonics, Inc., 40 B Old Road South, Santa Fe, NM 87540 (United States); Beck, Larry [L. Robert Payne School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, San Diego State University, Room PSFA 445, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Liu, Xia [Klein Buendel, Inc., 1667 Cole Boulevard, Suite 225, Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Abbott, Allison [School of Communication, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Eye, Rachel [Klein Buendel, Inc., 1667 Cole Boulevard, Suite 225, Golden, CO 80401 (United States)

2016-04-15

Background: Vacationing at sunny, warm weather locations is a risk factor for excessive solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and skin cancer. Objectives: This study examined the association of environmental variables related to UV levels with vacationers' sun protection. Methods: Vacationers at 41 summer resorts in 17 states and 1 Canadian Province were interviewed (n=3531) and observed (N=4347) during 2012 and 2013. Clothing coverage, sunglasses, and shade use were observed. Use of sunscreen and sunburns were self-reported. Environmental information was recorded by research staff or acquired from ground stations and the weather service. Results: Temperature was positively associated with sun protection behaviors; however clothing coverage was negatively associated with temperature. Cloud cover was negatively associated with sun protection, with the exception of clothing coverage which was positively associated with it. Elevation showed a mixed pattern of associations with vacationer's sun protection. Latitude of a resort was negatively associated with most sun protection behaviors, such that sun protection increased at more southerly resorts. Similarly, the farther south a vacationer traveled to the resort, the less sun protection they employed. The UV index showed a weak, positive relationship with some sun protection behaviors even when controlling for temperature. Conclusions: Vacationers appeared aware that UV is higher at southern latitudes and may learn UV is intense when living in southern regions. However, many used temperature, an unreliable cue, to judge UV intensity and seemed to adjust clothing for warmth not UV protection. Efforts are needed to help individuals make more accurate sun safety decisions. - Highlights: • Vacationers poorly monitor and protect against environmental ultraviolet radiation (UVR). • On cloudy days vacationers fail to protect against UVR. • Temperature is erroneously used by vacationers as a marker for UVR

“It Was Raining All the Time!”: Ex Post Tourist Weather Perceptions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefan Gössling

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The importance of weather for tourism is now widely recognized. However, no research has so far addressed weather events from retrospective viewpoints, and, in particular, the role of “extreme” events in longer-term holiday memories. To better understand the character of ex post weather experiences and their importance in destination image perceptions and future travel planning behavior, this exploratory study addressed a sample of 50 tourists from three globally important source markets: Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Results indicate that weather events do not dominate long-term memories of tourist experiences. Yet, weather events are important in shaping destination image, with “rain” being the single most important weather variable negatively influencing perceptions. Results also suggest that weather events perceived as extreme can involve considerable emotions. The study of ex post traveler memories consequently makes a valuable contribution to the understanding of the complexity of “extreme weather” events for tourist demand responses.

Mitigating Aviation Communication and Satellite Orbit Operations Surprises from Adverse Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W. Kent

2008-01-01

Adverse space weather affects operational activities in aviation and satellite systems. For example, large solar flares create highly variable enhanced neutral atmosphere and ionosphere electron density regions. These regions impact aviation communication frequencies as well as precision orbit determination. The natural space environment, with its dynamic space weather variability, is additionally changed by human activity. The increase in orbital debris in low Earth orbit (LEO), combined with lower atmosphere CO2 that rises into the lower thermosphere and causes increased cooling that results in increased debris lifetime, adds to the environmental hazards of navigating in near-Earth space. This is at a time when commercial space endeavors are posed to begin more missions to LEO during the rise of the solar activity cycle toward the next maximum (2012). For satellite and aviation operators, adverse space weather results in greater expenses for orbit management, more communication outages or aviation and ground-based high frequency radio used, and an inability to effectively plan missions or service customers with space-based communication, imagery, and data transferal during time-critical activities. Examples of some revenue-impacting conditions and solutions for mitigating adverse space weather are offered.

Analyzing Personal Happiness from Global Survey and Weather Data: A Geospatial Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Yi-Fan; Tang, Jia-Hong; Fu, Yang-chih; Fan, I-chun; Hor, Maw-Kae; Chan, Ta-Chien

2016-01-01

Past studies have shown that personal subjective happiness is associated with various macro- and micro-level background factors, including environmental conditions, such as weather and the economic situation, and personal health behaviors, such as smoking and exercise. We contribute to this literature of happiness studies by using a geospatial approach to examine both macro and micro links to personal happiness. Our geospatial approach incorporates two major global datasets: representative national survey data from the International Social Survey Program (ISSP) and corresponding world weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). After processing and filtering 55,081 records of ISSP 2011 survey data from 32 countries, we extracted 5,420 records from China and 25,441 records from 28 other countries. Sensitivity analyses of different intervals for average weather variables showed that macro-level conditions, including temperature, wind speed, elevation, and GDP, are positively correlated with happiness. To distinguish the effects of weather conditions on happiness in different seasons, we also adopted climate zone and seasonal variables. The micro-level analysis indicated that better health status and eating more vegetables or fruits are highly associated with happiness. Never engaging in physical activity appears to make people less happy. The findings suggest that weather conditions, economic situations, and personal health behaviors are all correlated with levels of happiness.

Using Weather Types to Understand and Communicate Weather and Climate Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Prein, A. F.; Hale, B.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Mearns, L.

2017-12-01

A common challenge in atmospheric research is the translation of scientific advancements and breakthroughs to decision relevant and actionable information. This challenge is central to the mission of NCAR's Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes (C3WE, www.c3we.ucar.edu). C3WE advances our understanding of weather and climate impacts and integrates these advances with distributed information technology to create tools that promote a global culture of resilience to weather and climate extremes. Here we will present an interactive web-based tool that connects historic U.S. losses and fatalities from extreme weather and climate events to 12 large-scale weather types. Weather types are dominant weather situations such as winter high-pressure systems over the U.S. leading to very cold temperatures or summertime moist humid air masses over the central U.S. leading to severe thunderstorms. Each weather type has a specific fingerprint of economic losses and fatalities in a region that is quantified. Therefore, weather types enable a direct connection of observed or forecasted weather situation to loss of life and property. The presented tool allows the user to explore these connections, raise awareness of existing vulnerabilities, and build resilience to weather and climate extremes.

Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

2018-03-01

Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

Modulation of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic climate by variable drawdown of atmospheric pCO2 from weathering of basaltic provinces on continents drifting through the equatorial humid belt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. V. Kent

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The small reservoir of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (pCO2 that modulates climate through the greenhouse effect reflects a delicate balance between large fluxes of sources and sinks. The major long-term source of CO2 is global outgassing from sea-floor spreading, subduction, hotspot activity, and metamorphism; the ultimate sink is through weathering of continental silicates and deposition of carbonates. Most carbon cycle models are driven by changes in the source flux scaled to variable rates of ocean floor production, but ocean floor production may not be distinguishable from being steady since 180 Ma. We evaluate potential changes in sources and sinks of CO2 for the past 120 Ma in a paleogeographic context. Our new calculations show that decarbonation of pelagic sediments by Tethyan subduction contributed only modestly to generally high pCO2 levels from the Late Cretaceous until the early Eocene, and thus shutdown of this CO2 source with the collision of India and Asia at the early Eocene climate optimum at around 50 Ma was inadequate to account for the large and prolonged decrease in pCO2 that eventually allowed the growth of significant Antarctic ice sheets by around 34 Ma. Instead, variation in area of continental basalt terranes in the equatorial humid belt (5° S–5° N seems to be a dominant factor controlling how much CO2 is retained in the atmosphere via the silicate weathering feedback. The arrival of the highly weatherable Deccan Traps in the equatorial humid belt at around 50 Ma was decisive in initiating the long-term slide to lower atmospheric pCO2, which was pushed further down by the emplacement of the 30 Ma Ethiopian Traps near the equator and the southerly tectonic extrusion of SE Asia, an arc terrane that presently is estimated to account for 1/4 of CO2 consumption from all basaltic provinces that account for ~1/3 of the total CO2 consumption by continental silicate weathering (Dessert et al., 2003. A negative climate

Weather and children's physical activity; how and why do relationships vary between countries?

Science.gov (United States)

Harrison, Flo; Goodman, Anna; van Sluijs, Esther M F; Andersen, Lars Bo; Cardon, Greet; Davey, Rachel; Janz, Kathleen F; Kriemler, Susi; Molloy, Lynn; Page, Angie S; Pate, Russ; Puder, Jardena J; Sardinha, Luis B; Timperio, Anna; Wedderkopp, Niels; Jones, Andy P

2017-05-30

Globally most children do not engage in enough physical activity. Day length and weather conditions have been identified as determinants of physical activity, although how they may be overcome as barriers is not clear. We aim to examine if and how relationships between children's physical activity and weather and day length vary between countries and identify settings in which children were better able to maintain activity levels given the weather conditions they experienced. In this repeated measures study, we used data from 23,451 participants in the International Children's Accelerometry Database (ICAD). Daily accelerometer-measured physical activity (counts per minute; cpm) was matched to local weather conditions and the relationships assessed using multilevel regression models. Multilevel models accounted for clustering of days within occasions within children within study-cities, and allowed us to explore if and how the relationships between weather variables and physical activity differ by setting. Increased precipitation and wind speed were associated with decreased cpm while better visibility and more hours of daylight were associated with increased cpm. Models indicated that increases in these variables resulted in average changes in mean cpm of 7.6/h of day length, -13.2/cm precipitation, 10.3/10 km visibility and -10.3/10kph wind speed (all p European countries and Melbourne, Australia were the most active, and also better maintained their activity levels given the weather conditions they experienced compared to those in the US and Western Europe. We found variation in the relationship between weather conditions and physical activity between ICAD studies and settings. Children in Northern Europe and Melbourne, Australia were not only more active on average, but also more active given the weather conditions they experienced. Future work should consider strategies to mitigate the impacts of weather conditions, especially among young children, and

Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

2009-04-01

Meteorological conditions play a fundamental role during entire chestnut tree vegetative cycle. Chestnut trees are well adapted to mean year temperatures of 8-15°C, requires monthly mean temperatures greater than 10°C during 6 months (Gomes-Laranjo et al. 2008) and its pollen only germinates at relatively high temperatures of 27-30°C (Bounous, 2002). Photosynthesis of an adult tree is highly dependent of temperature. Photosynthesis is maximal at 24-28°C but it is inhibited for temperatures greater than 32°C (Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2005, 2006). Furthermore, there are significant differences between chestnut trees cultivated in northfaced orchads in relation to those cultivated in the southfaced and between leaves from different sides of the chestnut canopy because they receive different amounts of radiant energy and consequently they grow under different mean daily air temperature. The objective of this work was to assess the role of weather on chestnut production variability. This study was performed for the 28 years period defined between 1980 and 2007 and it was based on annual values of chestnut production and total area of production, at national level, provided by INE, the National Institute of Statistics of Portugal. The meteorological data used was provided by Meteored (http://www.meteored.com/) and includes daily values of precipitation, wind speed, and mean, maximum and minimum air temperature. All meteorological variables were tested as potential predictors by means of a simple correlation analysis. Multiple time intervals were considered in this the analysis, which consist in moving intervals of constant length and forward and backward evolutionary intervals. Results show that some meteorological variables present significant correlation with chestnut productivity particularly in the most relevant periods of the chestnut tree cycle, like the previous winter, the flushing phase and the maturation period. A regression model based on the winter (January

Adverse weather impacts on arable cropping systems

Science.gov (United States)

Gobin, Anne

2016-04-01

Damages due to extreme or adverse weather strongly depend on crop type, crop stage, soil conditions and management. The impact is largest during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar, and requires a modelling approach to capture the interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The hypothesis is that extreme and adverse weather events can be quantified and subsequently incorporated in current crop models. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, a regional crop model was used to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. Risk profiles and associated return levels were obtained by fitting generalized extreme value distributions to block maxima for air humidity, water balance and temperature variables. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields and yield losses for the major arable crops in Belgium, notably winter wheat, winter barley, winter oilseed rape, sugar beet, potato and maize at the field (farm records) to regional scale (statistics). The average daily vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) during the growing season is significantly lower (p < 0.001) and has a higher variability before 1988 than after 1988. Distribution patterns of VPD and ET0 have relevant impacts on crop yields. The response to rising temperatures depends on the crop's capability to condition its microenvironment. Crops short of water close their stomata, lose their evaporative cooling potential and ultimately become susceptible to heat stress. Effects of heat stress therefore have to be combined with moisture availability such as the precipitation deficit or the soil water balance. Risks of combined heat and moisture deficit stress appear during the summer. These risks are subsequently related to crop damage. The methodology of defining

Comparative Science and Space Weather Around the Heliosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas; COSPAR/ILWS Roadmap Team

2016-10-01

Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been concerned to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new `toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched

A Study of the Relationship between Weather Variables and Electric Power Demand inside a Smart Grid/Smart World Framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Chinarro

2012-08-01

Full Text Available One of the main challenges of today’s society is the need to fulfill at the same time the two sides of the dichotomy between the growing energy demand and the need to look after the environment. Smart Grids are one of the answers: intelligent energy grids which retrieve data about the environment through extensive sensor networks and react accordingly to optimize resource consumption. In order to do this, the Smart Grids need to understand the existing relationship between energy demand and a set of relevant climatic variables. All smart “systems” (buildings, cities, homes, consumers, etc. have the potential to employ their intelligence for self-adaptation to climate conditions. After introducing the Smart World, a global framework for the collaboration of these smart systems, this paper presents the relationship found at experimental level between a range of relevant weather variables and electric power demand patterns, presenting a case study using an agent-based system, and emphasizing the need to consider this relationship in certain Smart World (and specifically Smart Grid and microgrid applications.

Counterintuitive roles of experience and weather on migratory performance

Science.gov (United States)

Rus, Adrian I.; Duerr, Adam E.; Miller, Tricia A.; Belthoff, James R.; Katzner, Todd E.

2017-01-01

Migration allows animals to live in resource-rich but seasonally variable environments. Because of the costs of migration, there is selective pressure to capitalize on variation in weather to optimize migratory performance. To test the degree to which migratory performance (defined as speed of migration) of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) was determined by age- and season-specific responses to variation in weather, we analyzed 1,863 daily tracks (n = 83 migrant eagles) and 8,047 hourly tracks (n = 83) based on 15 min GPS telemetry data from Golden Eagles and 277 hourly tracks based on 30 s data (n = 37). Spring migrant eagles traveled 139.75 ± 82.19 km day−1 (mean ± SE; n = 57) and 25.59 ± 11.75 km hr−1 (n = 55). Autumn migrant eagles traveled 99.14 ± 59.98 km day−1 (n = 26) and 22.18 ± 9.18 km hr−1 (n = 28). Weather during migration varied by season and by age class. During spring, best-supported daily and hourly models of 15 min data suggested that migratory performance was influenced most strongly by downward solar radiation and that older birds benefited less from flow assistance (tailwinds). During autumn, best-supported daily and hourly models of 15 min data suggested that migratory performance was influenced most strongly by south–north winds and by flow assistance, again less strongly for older birds. In contrast, models for hourly performance based on data collected at 30 s intervals were not well described by a single model, likely reflecting eagles' rapid responses to the many weather conditions they experienced. Although daily speed of travel was similar for all age classes, younger birds traveled at faster hourly speeds than did adults. Our analyses uncovered strong, sometimes counterintuitive, relationships among weather, experience, and migratory flight, and they illustrate the significance of factors other than age in determining migratory performance.

Phytoplankton variability in Lake Fraijanes, Costa Rica, in response to local weather variation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gerardo Umaña-Villalobos

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Phytoplankton species show a variety in morphology which is the result of adaptations to pelagic life including responses to fluctuations in water column dynamics driven by weather conditions. This has been reported in the oceans and in Northern temperate lakes. In order to observe whether tropical freshwater phytoplankton responds to seasonal variation in weather, the weekly variation in temperature of the water column and phytoplankton composition was studied in Lake Fraijanes, Costa Rica, a shallow (6.2m lake at 1 640m above sea level. A chain of data loggers for temperature was placed in the deepest point in the lake to register temperature every hour at four different depths, and phytoplankton samples were retrieved every week for a year. Additional monthly samples for nutrients were taken at two depths. Notwithstanding its shallowness, the lake developed a thermal gradient which kept the water column stratified for several months during dry season. Whole lake overturns occurred during cold spells with intense precipitation. Phytoplankton changed throughout the year mainly through a shift in dominant taxa. From September to February the lake was frequently mixed by rain storms and windy weather. At this time, phytoplankton was dominated by Chlorococcal green algae. From March to June, the lake was stratified and warmer. Phytoplankton became dominated by Cyanobateria, mainly colonial Chroococcales. The rainy season started again in May 2009. During June and July the lake started to mix intermittently during rain events and phytoplankton showed a brief increase in the contribution of Chlorococcales. These changes fitted well to a general model of phytoplankton succession based on functional groups identified according to their morphology and adaptations.

Looking toward to the next-generation space weather forecast system. Comments former a former space weather forecaster

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomita, Fumihiko

1999-01-01

In the 21st century, man's space-based activities will increase significantly and many kinds of space utilization technologies will assume a vital role in the infrastructure, creating new businesses, securing the global environment, contributing much to human welfare in the world. Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) has been contributing to the safety of human activity in space and to the further understanding of the solar terrestrial environment through the study of space weather, including the upper atmosphere, magnetosphere, interplanetary space, and the sun. The next-generation Space Weather Integrated Monitoring System (SWIMS) for future space activities based on the present international space weather forecasting system is introduced in this paper. (author)

Weathering and landscape evolution

Science.gov (United States)

Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

2005-04-01

In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

Weathering characteristics of the Lower Paleozoic black shale in ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

permeability show that porosity increases significantly after weathering but permeability changes little. Furthermore, the ... As such, black shales usually have a high content of ... in the accumulation of soluble weathering phases, providing ...

Ground and surface water developmental toxicity at a municipal landfill--Description and weather-related variation

Science.gov (United States)

Bruner, M.A.; Rao, M.; Dumont, J.N.; Hull, M.; Jones, T.; Bantle, J.A.

1998-01-01

Contaminated groundwater poses a significant health hazard and may also impact wildlife such as amphibians when it surfaces. Using FETAX (Frog Embryo Teratogenesis Assay-Xenopus), the developmental toxicity of ground and surface water samples near a closed municipal landfill at Norman, OK, were evaluated. The groundwater samples were taken from a network of wells in a shallow, unconfined aquifer downgradient from the landfill. Surface water samples were obtained from a pond and small stream adjacent to the landfill. Surface water samples from a reference site in similar habitat were also analyzed. Groundwater samples were highly toxic in the area near the landfill, indicating a plume of toxicants. Surface water samples from the landfill site demonstrated elevated developmental toxicity. This toxicity was temporally variable and was significantly correlated with weather conditions during the 3 days prior to sampling. Mortality was negatively correlated with cumulative rain and relative humidity. Mortality was positively correlated with solar radiation and net radiation. No significant correlations were observed between mortality and weather parameters for days 4–7 preceding sampling.

Effect of weather on temporal pain patterns in patients with temporomandibular disorders and migraine.

Science.gov (United States)

Cioffi, I; Farella, M; Chiodini, P; Ammendola, L; Capuozzo, R; Klain, C; Vollaro, S; Michelotti, A

2017-05-01

Patients with masticatory muscle pain and migraine typically report that the intensity of pain fluctuates over time and is affected by weather changes. Weather variables, such as ambient temperature and humidity, may vary significantly depending on whether the individual is outdoor or indoor. It is, therefore, important to assess these variables at the individual level using portable monitors, during everyday life. This study aimed to determine and compare the temporal patterns of pain in individuals affected with facial and head pain and to investigate its relation with weather changes. Eleven patients (27·3 ± 7·4 years) with chronic masticatory muscle pain (MP) and twenty (33·1 ± 8·7 years) with migraine headache (MH) were asked to report their current pain level on a visual analogue scale (VAS) every hour over fourteen consecutive days. The VAS scores were collected using portable data-loggers, which were also used to record temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity. VAS scores varied markedly over time in both groups. Pain VAS scores fluctuate less in the MP group than in the MH group, but their mean, minimum and maximum values were higher than those of migraine patients (all P < 0·05). Pain scores <2 cm were more common in the MH than in the MP group (P < 0·001). Perceived intensity of pain was negatively associated with atmospheric pressure in the MP group and positively associated with temperature and atmospheric in the MH group. Our results reveal that patients with masticatory muscle pain and patients with migraine present typical temporal pain patterns that are influenced in a different way by weather changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

Science.gov (United States)

Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

2010-08-01

Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms-1 and around 25 ms-1. A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

2010-01-01

Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms -1 and around 25 ms -1 . A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

Seasonal weather-related decision making for cattle production in the Northern Great Plains

Science.gov (United States)

High inter-annual variability of seasonal weather patterns can greatly affect forage and therefore livestock production in the Northern Great Plains. This variability can make it difficult for ranchers to set yearly stocking rates, particularly in advance of the grazing season. To better understand ...

Monthly Weather Review

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

Weather conditions: a neglected factor in human salivary cortisol research?

Science.gov (United States)

Milas, Goran; Šupe-Domić, Daniela; Drmić-Hofman, Irena; Rumora, Lada; Klarić, Irena Martinović

2018-02-01

There is ample evidence that environmental stressors such as extreme weather conditions affect animal behavior and that this process is in part mediated through the elevated activity of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis which results in an increase in cortisol secretion. This relationship has not been extensively researched in humans, and weather conditions have not been analyzed as a potential confounder in human studies of stress. Consequently, the goal of this paper was to assess the relationship between salivary cortisol and weather conditions in the course of everyday life and to test a possible moderating effect of two weather-related variables, the climate region and timing of exposure to outdoors conditions. The sample consisted of 903 secondary school students aged 18 to 21 years from Mediterranean and Continental regions. Cortisol from saliva was sampled in naturalistic settings at three time points over the course of a single day. We found that weather conditions are related to salivary cortisol concentration and that this relationship may be moderated by both the specific climate and the anticipation of immediate exposure to outdoors conditions. Unpleasant weather conditions are predictive for the level of salivary cortisol, but only among individuals who anticipate being exposed to it in the immediate future (e.g., in students attending school in the morning shift). We also demonstrated that isolated weather conditions or their patterns may be relevant in one climate area (e.g., Continental) while less relevant in the other (e.g., Mediterranean). Results of this study draw attention to the importance of controlling weather conditions in human salivary cortisol research.

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Science.gov (United States)

Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc;

Weather conditions drive dynamic habitat selection in a generalist predator

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sunde, Peter; Thorup, Kasper; Jacobsen, Lars B.

2014-01-01

Despite the dynamic nature of habitat selection, temporal variation as arising from factors such as weather are rarely quantified in species-habitat relationships. We analysed habitat use and selection (use/availability) of foraging, radio-tagged little owls (Athene noctua), a nocturnal, year...... and quadratic effects of temperature. Even when controlling for the temporal context, both land cover types were used more evenly than predicted from variation in availability (functional response in habitat selection). Use of two other land cover categories (pastures and moist areas) increased linearly...... with temperature and was proportional to their availability. The study shows that habitat selection by generalist foragers may be highly dependent on temporal variables such as weather, probably because such foragers switch between weather dependent feeding opportunities offered by different land cover types...

Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

2017-09-01

The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

Predicting weather regime transitions in Northern Hemisphere datasets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kondrashov, D. [University of California, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Shen, J. [UCLA, Department of Statistics, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Berk, R. [UCLA, Department of Statistics, Los Angeles, CA (United States); University of Pennsylvania, Department of Criminology, Philadelphia, PA (United States); D' Andrea, F.; Ghil, M. [Ecole Normale Superieure, Departement Terre-Atmosphere-Ocean and Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France)

2007-10-15

A statistical learning method called random forests is applied to the prediction of transitions between weather regimes of wintertime Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric low-frequency variability. A dataset composed of 55 winters of NH 700-mb geopotential height anomalies is used in the present study. A mixture model finds that the three Gaussian components that were statistically significant in earlier work are robust; they are the Pacific-North American (PNA) regime, its approximate reverse (the reverse PNA, or RNA), and the blocked phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (BNAO). The most significant and robust transitions in the Markov chain generated by these regimes are PNA {yields} BNAO, PNA {yields} RNA and BNAO {yields} PNA. The break of a regime and subsequent onset of another one is forecast for these three transitions. Taking the relative costs of false positives and false negatives into account, the random-forests method shows useful forecasting skill. The calculations are carried out in the phase space spanned by a few leading empirical orthogonal functions of dataset variability. Plots of estimated response functions to a given predictor confirm the crucial influence of the exit angle on a preferred transition path. This result points to the dynamic origin of the transitions. (orig.)

Estimating Runoff Coefficients Using Weather Radars

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ahm, Malte; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a method for estimating runoff coefficients of urban drainage catchments based on a combination of high resolution weather radar data and insewer flow measurements. By utilising the spatial variability of the precipitation it is possible to estimate the runoff coefficients...... of separate subcatchments. The method is demonstrated through a case study of an urban drainage catchment (678ha) located in the municipality of Aarhus, Denmark. The study has proven it is possible to use corresponding measurements of the relative rainfall distribution over the catchment and runoff...... measurements to identify the runoff coefficients at subcatchment level. The number of potential subcatchments is limited by the number of available rainfall events with a sufficient spatial variability....

Terminal weather information management

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Alfred T.

1990-01-01

Since the mid-1960's, microburst/windshear events have caused at least 30 aircraft accidents and incidents and have killed more than 600 people in the United States alone. This study evaluated alternative means of alerting an airline crew to the presence of microburst/windshear events in the terminal area. Of particular interest was the relative effectiveness of conventional and data link ground-to-air transmissions of ground-based radar and low-level windshear sensing information on microburst/windshear avoidance. The Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator located at Ames Research Center was employed in a line oriented simulation of a scheduled round-trip airline flight from Salt Lake City to Denver Stapleton Airport. Actual weather en route and in the terminal area was simulated using recorded data. The microburst/windshear incident of July 11, 1988 was re-created for the Denver area operations. Six experienced airline crews currently flying scheduled routes were employed as test subjects for each of three groups: (1) A baseline group which received alerts via conventional air traffic control (ATC) tower transmissions; (2) An experimental group which received alerts/events displayed visually and aurally in the cockpit six miles (approx. 2 min.) from the microburst event; and (3) An additional experimental group received displayed alerts/events 23 linear miles (approx. 7 min.) from the microburst event. Analyses of crew communications and decision times showed a marked improvement in both situation awareness and decision-making with visually displayed ground-based radar information. Substantial reductions in the variability of decision times among crews in the visual display groups were also found. These findings suggest that crew performance will be enhanced and individual differences among crews due to differences in training and prior experience are significantly reduced by providing real-time, graphic display of terminal weather hazards.

Weather Effects on Crop Diseases in Eastern Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Conradt, Tobias

2017-04-01

Since the 1970s there are several long-term monitoring programmes for plant diseases and pests in Germany. Within the framework of a national research project, some otherwise confidential databases comprising 77 111 samples from numerous sites accross Eastern Germany could be accessed and analysed. The pest data covered leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) in winter wheat, aphids (Aphididae, four genera) on wheat and other cereal crops, late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in potatoes, and pollen beetles (Brassicogethes aeneus) on rape. These data were complemented by daily weather observations from the German Weather Service (DWD). In a first step, Pearson correlations between weather variables and pest frequencies were calculated for seasonal time periods of different start months and durations and ordered into so-called correlograms. This revealed principal weather effects on disease spread - e. g. that wind is favourable for mildew throughout the year or that rape pollen beetles like it warm, but not during wintertime. Secondly, the pest frequency samples were found to resemble gamma distributions, and a generalised linear model was fitted to describe their parameter shift depending on end-of-winter temperatures for aphids on cereals. The method clearly shows potential for systematic pest risk assessments regarding climate change.

The sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden

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Norin, Lars; Devasthale, Abhay; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

2017-09-01

For a high-latitude country like Sweden snowfall is an important contributor to the regional water cycle. Furthermore, snowfall impacts surface properties, affects atmospheric thermodynamics, has implications for traffic and logistics management, disaster preparedness, and also impacts climate through changes in surface albedo and turbulent heat fluxes. For Sweden it has been shown that large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, or weather states, are important for precipitation variability. Although the link between atmospheric circulation patterns and precipitation has been investigated for rainfall there are no studies focused on the sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden.In this work we investigate the response of snowfall to eight selected weather states. These weather states consist of four dominant wind directions together with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns and enhanced positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The presented analysis is based on multiple data sources, such as ground-based radar measurements, satellite observations, spatially interpolated in situ observations, and reanalysis data. The data from these sources converge to underline the sensitivity of falling snow over Sweden to the different weather states.In this paper we examine both average snowfall intensities and snowfall accumulations associated with the different weather states. It is shown that, even though the heaviest snowfall intensities occur during conditions with winds from the south-west, the largest contribution to snowfall accumulation arrives with winds from the south-east. Large differences in snowfall due to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation are shown as well as a strong effect of cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns. Satellite observations are used to reveal the vertical structures of snowfall during the different weather states.

Intra and inter ‘local climate zone’ variability of air temperature as observed by crowdsourced citizen weather stations in Berlin, Germany

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Daniel Fenner

2017-11-01

Full Text Available A one-year data set for the year 2015 of near-surface air temperature (T$T$, crowdsourced from ‘Netatmo’ citizen weather stations (CWS in Berlin, Germany, and surroundings was analysed. The CWS data set, which has been quality-checked and filtered in a previous study, consists of T$T$ measurements from several hundred CWS. It was investigated (1 how CWS are distributed among urban and rural environments, as represented by ‘local climate zones’ (LCZ, (2 how LCZ are characterised in T$T$ along the annual cycle and concerning intra-LCZ T$T$ variability, and (3 if significant T$T$ differences between LCZ (ΔT$\\Delta T$ can be detected with CWS data. Further, it was investigated how the results from CWS compare to reference data from standard meteorological measurement stations. It can be shown that all ‘urban’ LCZ are covered by CWS, but only few CWS are located in ‘natural’ LCZ (e.g. forests or urban parks. CWS data along the annual cycle show generally good agreement to reference data, though for some LCZ monthly means between both data sets differ up to 1 K. Intra-LCZ T$T$ variability is particularly large during night-time. Statistically significant ΔT$\\Delta T$ can be detected with CWS data between various LCZ pairs, particularly for structurally dissimilar LCZ, and the results are in agreement with existing literature on LCZ or the urban heat island. Furthermore, annual mean ΔT$\\Delta T$ in CWS data agree well with reference data, thus showing the potential of CWS data for long-term studies. Several challenges related to crowdsourced CWS data need further investigation, namely missing meta data, the non-standard measurement locations, the imbalanced availability in time and space, and potentials to combine CWS and reference data to benefit from the main advantages of both, i.e., the large number of stations and the high quality of data, respectively.

Survey of French spine surgeons reveals significant variability in spine trauma practices in 2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Lonjon, G; Grelat, M; Dhenin, A; Dauzac, C; Lonjon, N; Kepler, C K; Vaccaro, A R

2015-02-01

In France, attempts to define common ground during spine surgery meetings have revealed significant variability in clinical practices across different schools of surgery and the two specialities involved in spine surgery, namely, neurosurgery and orthopaedic surgery. To objectively characterise this variability by performing a survey based on a fictitious spine trauma case. Our working hypothesis was that significant variability existed in trauma practices and that this variability was related to a lack of strong scientific evidence in spine trauma care. We performed a cross-sectional survey based on a clinical vignette describing a 31-year-old male with an L1 burst fracture and neurologic symptoms (numbness). Surgeons received the vignette and a 14-item questionnaire on the management of this patient. For each question, surgeons had to choose among five possible answers. Differences in answers across surgeons were assessed using the Index of Qualitative Variability (IQV), in which 0 indicates no variability and 1 maximal variability. Surgeons also received a questionnaire about their demographics and surgical experience. Of 405 invited spine surgeons, 200 responded to the survey. Five questions had an IQV greater than 0.9, seven an IQV between 0.5 and 0.9, and two an IQV lower than 0.5. Variability was greatest about the need for MRI (IQV=0.93), degree of urgency (IQV=0.93), need for fusion (IQV=0.92), need for post-operative bracing (IQV=0.91), and routine removal of instrumentation (IQV=0.94). Variability was lowest for questions about the need for surgery (IQV=0.42) and use of the posterior approach (IQV=0.36). Answers were influenced by surgeon specialty, age, experience level, and type of centre. Clinical practice regarding spine trauma varies widely in France. Little published evidence is available on which to base recommendations that would diminish this variability. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Linking the M&Rfi Weather Generator with Agrometeorological Models

Science.gov (United States)

Dubrovsky, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav

2015-04-01

Realistic meteorological inputs (representing the present and/or future climates) for the agrometeorological model simulations are often produced by stochastic weather generators (WGs). This contribution presents some methodological issues and results obtained in our recent experiments. We also address selected questions raised in the synopsis of this session. The input meteorological time series for our experiments are produced by the parametric single site weather generator (WG) Marfi, which is calibrated from the available observational data (or interpolated from surrounding stations). To produce meteorological series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified by climate change scenarios, which are prepared by the pattern scaling method: the standardised scenarios derived from Global or Regional Climate Models are multiplied by the change in global mean temperature (ΔTG) determined by the simple climate model MAGICC. The presentation will address following questions: (i) The dependence of the quality of the synthetic weather series and impact results on the WG settings. An emphasis will be put on an effect of conditioning the daily WG on monthly WG (presently being one of our hot topics), which aims at improvement of the reproduction of the low-frequency weather variability. Comparison of results obtained with various WG settings is made in terms of climatic and agroclimatic indices (including extreme temperature and precipitation characteristics and drought indices). (ii) Our methodology accounts for the uncertainties coming from various sources. We will show how the climate change impact results are affected by 1. uncertainty in climate modelling, 2. uncertainty in ΔTG, and 3. uncertainty related to the complexity of the climate change scenario (focusing on an effect of inclusion of changes in variability into the climate change scenarios). Acknowledgements: This study was funded by project "Building up a multidisciplinary scientific

Dropouts, spreading, and squeezing of solar particle distributions and space weather variability

Science.gov (United States)

Matthaeus, W. H.; Ruffolo, D. J.; Seripienlert, A.; Tooprakai, P.; Chuychai, P.

2015-12-01

In the past 15 years, observations and theories concerning dropouts of solar energetic particles have made it clear that the lateral spread of field lines and particles from a given location near the Sun is not a purely diffusive process. Particles of low energy from impulsive solar events exhibit abrupt changes in flux (dropouts) due to filamentation of magnetic connection from the Sun, indicating that magnetic flux tube-like structures at least partially persist to Earth orbit. Our simulations based on a corresponding spherical two-component model of Alfvénic (slab) and 2D magnetic fluctuations indicate that such particles mostly follow field lines, which spread over ˜25° at Earth orbit, and exhibit dropout features. On the other hand, gradual solar events are of practical interest because they can produce greatly enhanced high-energy ion fluxes, which can cause radiation damage to satellites, spacecraft, and astronauts. While gradual events do not exhibit dropouts in the above sense, we show that the distribution of high-energy (E≥1 GeV) protons is squeezed toward magnetic flux tube-like structures with a specific polarity due to the structures' conical shape. Since it is difficult to observationally determine what polarity of flux structure the Earth is in at a given time, this transport phenomenon contributes to event-to-event variability in ground level enhancements of GeV-range ions from solar storms, presenting a fundamental uncertainty in space weather prediction. Partially supported by the Thailand Research Fund (Grant BRG5880009), a Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, a Research Fellowship from the Faculty of Science at Mahidol University, the U.S. NSF (AGS-1063439 and SHINE AGS-1156094), NASA (Heliophysics Theory NNX14AI63G, and LWS NNX15AB88G), and the Solar Probe Plus/ISIS project (D99031L).

Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

Science.gov (United States)

Intriligator, Devrie S.

2009-12-01

The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-31

Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

Science.gov (United States)

Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

2018-04-01

Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

Severe Weather Environments in Atmospheric Reanalyses

Science.gov (United States)

King, A. T.; Kennedy, A. D.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric reanalyses combine historical observation data using a fixed assimilation scheme to achieve a dynamically coherent representation of the atmosphere. How well these reanalyses represent severe weather environments via proxies is poorly defined. To quantify the performance of reanalyses, a database of proximity soundings near severe storms from the Rapid Update Cycle 2 (RUC-2) model will be compared to a suite of reanalyses including: North American Reanalysis (NARR), European Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), 2nd Modern-Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A variety of severe weather parameters will be calculated from these soundings including: convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), supercell composite parameter (SCP), and significant tornado parameter (STP). These soundings will be generated using the SHARPpy python module, which is an open source tool used to calculate severe weather parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the NARR and JRA55 are significantly more skilled at producing accurate severe weather environments than the other reanalyses. The primary difference between these two reanalyses and the remaining reanalyses is a significant negative bias for thermodynamic parameters. To facilitate climatological studies, the scope of work will be expanded to compute these parameters for the entire domain and duration of select renalyses. Preliminary results from this effort will be presented and compared to observations at select locations. This dataset will be made pubically available to the larger scientific community, and details of this product will be provided.

Cold-Weather Sports

Science.gov (United States)

... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

A review of operational, regional-scale, chemical weather forecasting models in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Kukkonen

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Numerical models that combine weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry are here referred to as chemical weather forecasting models. Eighteen operational chemical weather forecasting models on regional and continental scales in Europe are described and compared in this article. Topics discussed in this article include how weather forecasting and atmospheric chemistry models are integrated into chemical weather forecasting systems, how physical processes are incorporated into the models through parameterization schemes, how the model architecture affects the predicted variables, and how air chemistry and aerosol processes are formulated. In addition, we discuss sensitivity analysis and evaluation of the models, user operational requirements, such as model availability and documentation, and output availability and dissemination. In this manner, this article allows for the evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the various modelling systems and modelling approaches. Finally, this article highlights the most prominent gaps of knowledge for chemical weather forecasting models and suggests potential priorities for future research directions, for the following selected focus areas: emission inventories, the integration of numerical weather prediction and atmospheric chemical transport models, boundary conditions and nesting of models, data assimilation of the various chemical species, improved understanding and parameterization of physical processes, better evaluation of models against data and the construction of model ensembles.

Results and Interpretations from a Survey on Agriculturally Related Weather Information.

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss, A.; Robb, J. G.

1986-01-01

A survey Of "top" wheat farmers in 12 counties in western Nebraska was undertaken to help guide future research and extension programs (in agricultural meteorology and economics) in the region. One hundred forty-two farmers (59 percent of those receiving questionnaires) responded to the survey. Of the respondents, 42 percent own or are considering purchasing a personal computer; the vast majority of farmers own a rain gage and some form of temperature- measuring device; the respondents were moderately familiar with an existing Automated Weather Data Network in Nebraska; commercial and NOAA weather radio and commercial television are the main sources of weather data and information. short-term weather forecasts (1 day and 3-5 days) are most important to overall farm planning; respondents considered market and cost-of-production information and more-accurate weather forecasts most important in better management of their farm operations; the risk factors that impacted farm net income were economic followed by weather factors and marketing decisions; and most farmers would be willing to forward contract before the crop was half developed if good projections of crop status and yield could be made. A major constraint to preharvest forward contracting from some of the farmers' perspective appears to be variability in yield due to hail.

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-04-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

2010-12-01

Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

Cockpit weather information needs

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Charles H.

1992-01-01

The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

Prevalence of weather sensitivity in Germany and Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Mackensen, Sylvia; Hoeppe, Peter; Maarouf, Abdel; Tourigny, Pierre; Nowak, Dennis

2005-01-01

% of the weather-sensitive subjects reported themselves to be unable to do their regular work because of weather-related symptoms at least once in the previous year, and 22% of them several times. Co-morbidity was significantly higher in weather-sensitive subjects both in Germany and Canada. These results clearly showed the important impact of WS on public health and the economy. These findings prompted us to start studies on the causal factors of weather-related health effects.

An objective daily Weather Type classification for Iberia since 1850; patterns, trends, variability and impact in precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Valente, M. A.; Gimeno, L.

2009-04-01

the winter precipitation amount, observed on a daily basis. On the other hand, the three wettest WTs, namely the Cyclonic (C), South-westerly (SW) and Westerly (W) types, together representing roughly a third of all winter days, do account for more than 60% of the observed daily precipitation. It is shown that the large inter-annual variability of precipitation in both cities is highly related with the corresponding inter-annual variability of the wet WTs. Ansell, T. J. et al. (2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European - North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003, Journal of Climate, 19, 2717-2742, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3775.1 Huth R., Beck C., Philipp A., Demuzere M, Ustrnul Z, Cahynová M., Kyselý J., Tveito O.E. (2008) Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns: recent advances and applications. Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146:, 105-152 Jones, P. D. , M. Hulme , K. R. Briffa. (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int. J. Climatol. 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., Taboada J.J. and Gimeno L. (2008) Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). Int. J. Climatol. Published Online: Nov 12 2007 5:30AM DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646. Trigo R.M. and Da Camara C.C. (2000) Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

Cargas elétricas estruturais e variáveis de solos tropicais altamente intemperizados Structural and variable electric charges of highly weathered tropical soils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oscarlina Lucia dos Santos Weber

2005-12-01

Full Text Available Os solos tropicais altamente intemperizados apresentam teor significativo de colóides com carga elétrica variável. Entretanto, são poucas as referências em relação à quantificação destas cargas, principalmente em solos ácricos, que representam o extremo na escala de intemperismo. Neste estudo, foram determinadas as cargas permanentes e as variáveis de dois Latossolos Vermelhos acriférricos, um Latossolo Amarelo ácrico e um Latossolo Amarelo acriférrico, que foram comparados a um Nitossolo Vermelho eutroférrico, com carga predominantemente permanente. As amostras foram investigadas pelo método da adsorção do íon césio (Cs+, que mede a carga estrutural permanente (sigmao e baseia-se na preferência do Cs+ sobre o Li+ na superfície da siloxana de grupos de superfície ionizáveis de menor seletividade ao íon Cs+. A carga variável representou mais que 50 % da carga total dos solos estudados. Dois dos quatro Latossolos com propriedades ácricas exibiram quantidade significativa de carga permanente, provavelmente em razão da presença de vermiculita com hidróxi entrecamadas e clorita. A quantidade de carga permanente apresentada pelo Nitossolo foi até cinco vezes maior se comparada à dos Latossolos, o que pode ser atribuído à diferença na constituição mineralógica. O método da adsorção de Cs foi capaz de identificar teores significativos de carga permanente estrutural, mesmo em solos com baixo teor de minerais 2:1.Highly weathered tropical soils present high amount of colloids with variable electrical charge. However, there are few references related to the quantification of such charges, mainly in soils with acric attributes, which represent one of the extremes in the weathering scale. In this study permanent and variable charges were determined in four Oxisols and compared to an Alfisol with predominantly permanent charge. Samples were investigated using the Cs+ adsorption method, which measures the structural

Progress report of the National Weatherization Assistance Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berry, L.G.; Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States)

1997-09-01

The National Weatherization Evaluation of the 1989 Program Year and the Metaevaluation of 1996 are described in two ways in this summary document. The text pages summarize the results of the two evaluations conducted by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The photographs and explanations illustrate weatherization operations and tactics. An overview and history of the program is provided, followed by the scope of weatherization, metaevaluation methods and results for 1996, national evaluation methods and results for 1989, response to evaluation findings, remaining opportunities, and next steps. Conclusions and significant findings are then given.

Investigating Subjective Experience and the Influence of Weather Among Individuals With Fibromyalgia: A Content Analysis of Twitter.

Science.gov (United States)

Delir Haghighi, Pari; Kang, Yong-Bin; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Burstein, Frada; Whittle, Samuel

2017-01-19

Little is understood about the determinants of symptom expression in individuals with fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS). While individuals with FMS often report environmental influences, including weather events, on their symptom severity, a consistent effect of specific weather conditions on FMS symptoms has yet to be demonstrated. Content analysis of a large number of messages by individuals with FMS on Twitter can provide valuable insights into variation in the fibromyalgia experience from a first-person perspective. The objective of our study was to use content analysis of tweets to investigate the association between weather conditions and fibromyalgia symptoms among individuals who tweet about fibromyalgia. Our second objective was to gain insight into how Twitter is used as a form of communication and expression by individuals with fibromyalgia and to explore and uncover thematic clusters and communities related to weather. Computerized sentiment analysis was performed to measure the association between negative sentiment scores (indicative of severe symptoms such as pain) and coincident environmental variables. Date, time, and location data for each individual tweet were used to identify corresponding climate data (such as temperature). We used graph analysis to investigate the frequency and distribution of domain-related terms exchanged in Twitter and their association strengths. A community detection algorithm was applied to partition the graph and detect different communities. We analyzed 140,432 tweets related to fibromyalgia from 2008 to 2014. There was a very weak positive correlation between humidity and negative sentiment scores (r=.009, P=.001). There was no significant correlation between other environmental variables and negative sentiment scores. The graph analysis showed that "pain" and "chronicpain" were the most frequently used terms. The Louvain method identified 6 communities. Community 1 was related to feelings and symptoms at the time

Areal variation and chemical modification of weathered shale infiltration characteristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luxmoore, R.J.; Spalding, B.P.; Munro, I.M.

1981-01-01

Spatial variability of infiltration into a weathered shale subsoil was evaluated at a site proximal to one used for shallow land burial of low-level radioactive waste at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Double-ring infiltometers were installed at 48 locations on a 2- by 2-m grid after the removal of 1 to 2 m of soil (Litz-Sequoia association, Typic Hapludults). Infiltration rates were measured before and during the 0- to 20- and 239- to 259-day periods following treatment with solutions of NaOH, KOH, NaF, NaAlO 2 , and Na 2 SiO 3 at rates of 151 equivalents/m 2 . None of these chemical treatments significantly altered infiltration rate, indicating that chemical modification of soil exchange properties may be achieved without inducing hydrologic disturbance in these subsoils. A semivariogram analysis of infiltration data showed that areal variability was random; any spatial patterning must therefore occur at a smaller scale than 2 m

To what extent does weather influence individuals’ financial decision-making behaviour? Evidence from the spread-trading market

OpenAIRE

Wang, Shaosong

2016-01-01

This thesis, which is divided into 3 papers, investigates the relationship between weather and individuals’ trading behaviour in the spread-trading market. The spread-trading market offers the opportunity of examining individuals’ trading records, and thus enables the exploration of the impact of weather on individuals’ financial decision-making behaviours. The first paper investigates the effect of a range of weather variables on individual spread traders’ hourly trading volumes and their pr...

WEATHE- RELATED VARIABILITY OF CALORIMETERY PERFORMANCE IN A POORLY-CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

CAMERON, M.A.

2007-01-01

Four Antech airbath calorimeters at the Hanford site were studied for three summers and two winters in a location not well-shielded from outside temperature changes. All calorimeters showed significant increases in variability of standard measurements during hot weather. The increased variability is postulated to be due to a low setting of the Peltier cold face temperature, which doesn't allow the instrument to drain heat fast enough in a hot environment. A higher setting of the Peltier cold face might lead to better performance in environments subjected to a broad range of temperatures

Local weather is associated with rates of online searches for musculoskeletal pain symptoms.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott Telfer

Full Text Available Weather conditions are commonly believed to influence musculoskeletal pain, however the evidence for this is mixed. This study aimed to examine the relationship between local meteorological conditions and online search trends for terms related to knee pain, hip pain, and arthritis. Five years of relative online search volumes for these terms were obtained for the 50 most populous cities in the contiguous United States, along with corresponding local weather data for temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and precipitation. Methods from the climate econometrics literature were used to assess the casual impact of these meteorological variables on the relative volumes of searches for pain. For temperatures between -5°C and 30°C, search volumes for hip pain increased by 12 index points, and knee pain increased by 18 index points. Precipitation had a negative effect on search volumes for these terms. At temperatures >30°C, search volumes for arthritis related pain decreased by 7 index points. These patterns were not seen for pain searches unrelated to the musculoskeletal system. In summary, selected local weather conditions are significantly associated with online search volumes for specific musculoskeletal pain symptoms. We believe the predominate driver for this to be the relative changes in physical activity levels associated with meteorological conditions.

Climate variability and land cover change over the North American monsoon region (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, X.; Scheftic, W. D.; Broxton, P. D.

2013-12-01

The North American Monsoon System over Mexico and southwestern United States represents a weather/climate and ecosystem coupled "macrosystem". The weather and climate affect the seasonal and interannual variability of ecosystem, while the ecosystem change affects surface energy, water, and carbon fluxes that, in turn, affect weather and climate. Furthermore, long-term weather/climate data have a much coarser horizontal resolution than the satellite land cover data. Here the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data at 32 km grid spacing will be combined with various satellite remote sensing products at 1 km and/or 8 km resolution from AVHRR, MODIS, and SPOT for the period of 1982 to present. Our analysis includes: a) precipitation, wind, and precipitable water data from NARR to characterize the North American monsoon; b) land cover type, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), green vegetation fraction, and leaf-area index (LAI) data to characterize the seasonal and interannual variability of ecosystem; c) assessing the consistency of various satellite products; and d) testing the coherence in the weather/climate and ecosystem variability.

NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

2012-01-01

The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

Science.gov (United States)

Winkler, Erhard M.

1987-06-01

Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

Designing a better weather display

Science.gov (United States)

Ware, Colin; Plumlee, Matthew

2012-01-01

The variables most commonly displayed on weather maps are atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, and surface temperature. But they are usually shown separately, not together on a single map. As a design exercise, we set the goal of finding out if it is possible to show all three variables (two 2D scalar fields and a 2D vector field) simultaneously such that values can be accurately read using keys for all variables, a reasonable level of detail is shown, and important meteorological features stand out clearly. Our solution involves employing three perceptual "channels", a color channel, a texture channel, and a motion channel in order to perceptually separate the variables and make them independently readable. We conducted an experiment to evaluate our new design both against a conventional solution, and against a glyph-based solution. The evaluation tested the abilities of novice subjects both to read values using a key, and to see meteorological patterns in the data. Our new scheme was superior especially in the representation of wind patterns using the motion channel, and it also performed well enough in the representation of pressure using the texture channel to suggest it as a viable design alternative.

Weather types and the regime of wildfires in Portugal

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.; Dacamara, C. C.

2009-04-01

An objective classification scheme, as developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000), was applied to classify the daily atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal between 1980 and 2007 into a set of 10 basic weather types (WTs). The classification scheme relies on a set of atmospheric circulation indices, namely southerly flow (SF), westerly flow (WF), total flow (F), southerly shear vorticity (ZS), westerly shear vorticity (ZW) and total vorticity (Z). The weather-typing approach, together with surfacemeteorological variables (e.g. intensity and direction of geostrophic wind, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation) were then associated to wildfire events as recorded in the official Portuguese fire database consisting of information on each fire occurred in the 18 districts of Continental Portugal within the same period (>450.000 events). The objective of this study is to explore the dependence of wildfire activity on weather and climate and then evaluate the potential of WTs to discriminate among recorded wildfires on what respects to their occurrence and development. Results show that days characterised by surface flow with an eastern component (i.e. NE, E and SE) account for a high percentage of daily burnt area, as opposed to surface westerly flow (NW, W and SW), which represents about a quarter of the total number of days but only accounts for a very low percentage of active fires and of burnt area. Meteorological variables such as minimum and maximum temperatures, that are closely associated to surface wind intensity and direction, also present a good ability to discriminate between the different types of fire events.. Trigo R.M., DaCamara C. (2000) "Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581.

Weather during bloom affects pollination and yield of highbush blueberry.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuell, Julianna K; Isaacs, Rufus

2010-06-01

Weather plays an important role in spring-blooming fruit crops due to the combined effects on bee activity, flower opening, pollen germination, and fertilization. To determine the effects of weather on highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum L., productivity, we monitored bee activity and compared fruit set, weight, and seed number in a field stocked with honey bees, Apis mellifera L., and common eastern bumble bees, Bombus impatiens (Cresson). Flowers were subjected to one of five treatments during bloom: enclosed, open, open during poor weather only, open during good weather only, or open during poor and good weather. Fewer bees of all types were observed foraging and fewer pollen foragers returned to colonies during poor weather than during good weather. There were also changes in foraging community composition: honey bees dominated during good weather, whereas bumble bees dominated during poor weather. Berries from flowers exposed only during poor weather had higher fruit set in 1 yr and higher berry weight in the other year compared with enclosed clusters. In both years, clusters exposed only during good weather had > 5 times as many mature seeds, weighed twice as much, and had double the fruit set of those not exposed. No significant increase over flowers exposed during good weather was observed when clusters were exposed during good and poor weather. Our results are discussed in terms of the role of weather during bloom on the contribution of bees adapted to foraging during cool conditions.

Weather patterns, food security and humanitarian response in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Haile, Menghestab

2005-11-29

Although considerable achievements in the global reduction of hunger and poverty have been made, progress in Africa so far has been very limited. At present, a third of the African population faces widespread hunger and chronic malnutrition and is exposed to a constant threat of acute food crisis and famine. The most affected are rural households whose livelihood is heavily dependent on traditional rainfed agriculture. Rainfall plays a major role in determining agricultural production and hence the economic and social well being of rural communities. The rainfall pattern in sub-Saharan Africa is influenced by large-scale intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability including occasional El Niño events in the tropical Pacific resulting in frequent extreme weather event such as droughts and floods that reduce agricultural outputs resulting in severe food shortages. Households and communities facing acute food shortages are forced to adopt coping strategies to meet the immediate food requirements of their families. These extreme responses may have adverse long-term, impacts on households' ability to have sustainable access to food as well as the environment. The HIV/AIDS crisis has also had adverse impacts on food production activities on the continent. In the absence of safety nets and appropriate financial support mechanisms, humanitarian aid is required to enable households effectively cope with emergencies and manage their limited resources more efficiently. Timely and appropriate humanitarian aid will provide households with opportunities to engage in productive and sustainable livelihood strategies. Investments in poverty reduction efforts would have better impact if complemented with timely and predictable response mechanisms that would ensure the protection of livelihoods during crisis periods whether weather or conflict-related. With an improved understanding of climate variability including El Niño, the implications of weather patterns for the food

Does Silicate Weathering of Loess Affect Atmospheric CO2?

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, S. P.

2002-12-01

Weathering of glacial loess may be a significant, yet unrecognized, component of the carbon cycle. Glaciers produce fine-grained sediment, exposing vast amounts of mineral surface area to weathering processes, yet silicate mineral weathering rates at glacier beds and of glacial till are not high. Thus, despite the tremendous potential for glaciers to influence global weathering rates and atmospheric CO2 levels, this effect has not been demonstrated. Loess, comprised of silt-clay sizes, may be the key glacial deposit in which silicate weathering rates are high. Loess is transported by wind off braid plains of rivers, and deposited broadly (order 100 km from the source) in vegetated areas. Both the fine grain size, and hence large mineral surface area, and presence of vegetation should render loess deposits highly susceptible to silicate weathering. These deposits effectively extend the geochemical impact of glaciation in time and space, and bring rock flour into conditions conducive to chemical weathering. A simple 1-d model of silicate weathering fluxes from a soil profile demonstrates the potential of loess deposition to enhance CO2 consumption. At each time step, computed mineral dissolution (using anorthite and field-based rate constants) modifies the size of mineral grains within the soil. In the case of a stable soil surface, this results in a gradual decline in weathering fluxes and CO2 consumption through time, as finer grain sizes dissolve away. Computed weathering fluxes for a typical loess, with an initial mean grain size of 25 μm, are an order of magnitude greater than fluxes from a non-loess soil that differs only in having a mean grain size of 320 μm. High weathering fluxes are maintained through time if loess is continually deposited. Deposition rates as low as 0.01 mm/yr (one loess grain thickness per year) can lead to a doubling of CO2 consumption rates within 5 ka. These results suggest that even modest loess deposition rates can significantly

The Influence of Weather Variation, Urban Design and Built Environment on Objectively Measured Sedentary Behaviour in Children.

Science.gov (United States)

Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

2016-01-01

With emerging evidence indicating that independent of physical activity, sedentary behaviour (SB) can be detrimental to health, researchers are increasingly aiming to understand the influence of multiple contexts such as urban design and built environment on SB. However, weather variation, a factor that continuously interacts with all other environmental variables, has been consistently underexplored. This study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including weather variation, urban design and built environment) on SB in children. This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living research initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer) to derive SB of 331 10-14 year old children in 25 one week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample. Accelerometer data were matched with localized weather patterns derived from Environment Canada weather data. Multilevel modeling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modeling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on SB. Both weather variation and urban design played a significant role in SB. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in grid-pattern neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations) were less likely to be sedentary. This study demonstrates a methodology that could be replicated to integrate geography-specific weather patterns with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data to

Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

No evidence of the effect of extreme weather events on annual occurrence of four groups of ectothermic species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agnieszka H Malinowska

Full Text Available Weather extremes may have strong effects on biodiversity, as known from theoretical and modelling studies. Predicted negative effects of increased weather variation are found only for a few species, mostly plants and birds in empirical studies. Therefore, we investigated correlations between weather variability and patterns in occupancy, local colonisations and local extinctions (metapopulation metrics across four groups of ectotherms: Odonata, Orthoptera, Lepidoptera, and Reptilia. We analysed data of 134 species on a 1×1 km-grid base, collected in the last 20 years from the Netherlands, combining standardised data and opportunistic data. We applied dynamic site-occupancy models and used the results as input for analyses of (i trends in distribution patterns, (ii the effect of temperature on colonisation and persistence probability, and (iii the effect of years with extreme weather on all the three metapopulation metrics. All groups, except butterflies, showed more positive than negative trends in metapopulation metrics. We did not find evidence that the probability of colonisation or persistence increases with temperature nor that extreme weather events are reflected in higher extinction risks. We could not prove that weather extremes have visible and consistent negative effects on ectothermic species in temperate northern hemisphere. These findings do not confirm the general prediction that increased weather variability imperils biodiversity. We conclude that weather extremes might not be ecologically relevant for the majority of species. Populations might be buffered against weather variation (e.g. by habitat heterogeneity, or other factors might be masking the effects (e.g. availability and quality of habitat. Consequently, we postulate that weather extremes have less, or different, impact in real world metapopulations than theory and models suggest.

Multi-decadal classification of synoptic weather types, observed trends and links to rainfall characteristics over Saudi Arabia

KAUST Repository

El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

2014-09-15

An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was employed to characterize daily circulation conditions in Saudi Arabia from 1960 to 2005. Daily gridded fields of sea level pressure (SLP) from both the NCEP/NCAR and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA40) were used as input data for this classification. The output catalog included 10 basic types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the region (i.e., cyclonic, anti-cyclonic, and directional). In general, our findings indicate that cyclonic (C) days represent the most frequent type among all days, with 69.2% of the annual count of days from 1960 to 2005, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also determined that airflows originating from the Indian Ocean (i.e., S, SE, and E) are more frequent than those from the Mediterranean and Red Seas (i.e., W, NW, and SW). The defined weather types were assessed for the presence of inter-annual and intra-annual trends using the Mann–Kendall tau statistic. The trend analysis suggests statistically significant changes in the frequencies of a majority of the weather types from 1960 to 2005. The relationship between the daily occurrence of rainfall and the frequency of individual weather types was also described using daily rainfall data from a network of 87 weather observatories. Results demonstrate that increasing frequencies of weather types connected to easterly inflows support higher precipitation amounts over the study domain. Characterizing the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in Saudi Arabia is important for understanding potential impacts related to climate variability and also for developing circulation-based downscaling methods.

Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

Planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by aerosol cycles and synoptic weather types

OpenAIRE

M. Collaud Coen; E. Weingartner; M. Furger; S. Nyeki; A. S. H. Prévôt; M. Steinbacher; U. Baltensperger

2011-01-01

Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration) and trace gases (CO, NO_x, SO₂) measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l.) have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS) classification was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the whole Swiss region. The seasonal contribution of each syn...

Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

Science.gov (United States)

Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

2017-12-01

The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

Food Price Volatility and Decadal Climate Variability

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, M. E.

2013-12-01

The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used

Weather delay costs to trucking.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-11-01

Estimates of the nations freight sector of transportation range to upwards of $600 billion of total gross domestic product with 70 percent of total value and 60 percent of total weight moving by truck. Weather-related delays can add significantly ...

Classification of weathered crude oils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vogt, N.B.; Sjoegren, C.E.; Lichtenthaler, G.

1987-01-01

The NORDTEST procedure (1) for oil spill identification has been applied successfully at several occasions. The NORDTEST procedure includes analyses of sulfur (XRF), vanadium and nickel (ICP/AAS), GC, HPLC and UV-fluorescence. The NORDTEST procedure does not include GC-MS as an analytical method. As part of a joint Nordic to evaluate the NORDTEST procedure for oil identification, with participants from Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway, thirty artificially weathered crude oils from four geographical regions have been analyzed (2). The analytical methods evaluated include sulfur analysis, vanadium and nickel analysis, infrared analysis, UV-fluorescence, gas chromatography, high pressure liquid chromatography and high resolution GC-mass spectrometry. Figure 1 shows the distribution of variables analyzed in each analytical method. The 190 variables from GC-MS were split into 7 groups according to chemical considerations. These were steranes (25 var.), triterpanes (16 var.), di(+)aromatics (63 var.), sulf. aromatics (30 var.), monoaromatics (19 var.), cycloalkanes (15 var.) and n-alkanes (22) variables. The data from these chemical analyses have been evaluated for use in oil spill identification purposes

Broadcast media and the dissemination of weather information

Science.gov (United States)

Byrnes, J.

1973-01-01

Although television is the public's most preferred source of weather information, it fails to provide weather reports to those groups who seek the information early in the day and during the day. The result is that many people most often use radio as a source of information, yet preferring the medium of television. The public actively seeks weather information from both radio and TV stations, usually seeking information on current conditions and short range forecasts. forecasts. Nearly all broadcast stations surveyed were eager to air severe weather bulletins quickly and often. Interest in Nowcasting was high among radio and TV broadcasters, with a significant portion indicating a willingness to pay something for the service. However, interest among TV stations in increasing the number of daily reports was small.

The use of circulation weather types to predict upwelling activity along the Western Iberian Peninsula coast

Science.gov (United States)

Ramos, Alexandre M.; Cordeiro Pires, Ana; Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

Coastal upwelling is a phenomenon that occurs in most western oceanic coasts due to the presence of mid-latitude high-pressure systems that generate equatorward winds along the coast and consequent offshore displacement of surface waters that in turn cause deeper, colder, nutrient-rich waters to arise. In western Iberian Peninsula (IP) the high-pressure system associated to northerly winds occurs mainly during spring and summer. Upwelling systems are economically relevant, being the most productive regions of the world ocean and crucial for fisheries. In this work, we evaluate the intra- and inter-annual variability of the Upwelling Index (UI) off the western coast of the IP considering four locations at various latitudes: Rias Baixas, Aveiro, Figueira da Foz and Cabo da Roca. In addition, the relationship between the variability of the occurrence of several circulation weather types (Ramos et al., 2011) and the UI variability along this coast was assessed in detail, allowing to discriminate which types are frequently associated with strong and weak upwelling activity. It is shown that upwelling activity is mostly driven by wind flow from the northern quadrant, for which the obtained correlation coefficients (for the N and NE types) are higher than 0.5 for the four considered test locations. Taking into account these significant relationships, we then developed statistical multi-linear regression models to hindcast upwelling series (April to September) at the four referred locations, using monthly frequencies of circulation weather types as predictors. Modelled monthly series reproduce quite accurately observational data, with correlation coefficients above 0.7 for all locations, and relatively small absolute errors. Ramos AM, Ramos R, Sousa P, Trigo RM, Janeira M, Prior V (2011) Cloud to ground lightning activity over Portugal and its association with Circulation Weather Types. Atmospheric Research 101:84-101. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01

Space Weather: Where Is The Beef?

Science.gov (United States)

Koskinen, H. E. J.

Space weather has become a highly fashionable topic in solar-terrestrial physics. It is perhaps the best tool to popularise the field and it has contributed significantly to the dialogue between solar, magnetospheric, and ionospheric scientist, and also to mu- tual understanding between science and engineering communities. While these are laudable achievements, it is important for the integrity of scientific space weather re- search to recognise the central open questions in the physics of space weather and the progress toward solving them. We still lack sufficient understanding of the solar physics to be able to tell in advance when and where a solar eruption will take place and whether it will turn to a geoeffective event. There is much to do to understand ac- celeration of solar energetic particles and propagation of solar mass ejecta toward the Earth. After more than 40 years of research scientific discussion of energy and plasma transfer through the magnetopause still deals mostly with qualitative issues and the rapid acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are not yet explained in a satisfac- tory way. Also the coupling to the ionosphere and from there to the strong induction effects on ground is another complex of research problems. For space weather science the beef is in the investigation of these and related topics, not in marketing half-useful space weather products to hesitant customers.

A conditional stochastic weather generator for seasonal to multi-decadal simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Verdin, Andrew; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Kleiber, William; Podestá, Guillermo; Bert, Federico

2018-01-01

We present the application of a parametric stochastic weather generator within a nonstationary context, enabling simulations of weather sequences conditioned on interannual and multi-decadal trends. The generalized linear model framework of the weather generator allows any number of covariates to be included, such as large-scale climate indices, local climate information, seasonal precipitation and temperature, among others. Here we focus on the Salado A basin of the Argentine Pampas as a case study, but the methodology is portable to any region. We include domain-averaged (e.g., areal) seasonal total precipitation and mean maximum and minimum temperatures as covariates for conditional simulation. Areal covariates are motivated by a principal component analysis that indicates the seasonal spatial average is the dominant mode of variability across the domain. We find this modification to be effective in capturing the nonstationarity prevalent in interseasonal precipitation and temperature data. We further illustrate the ability of this weather generator to act as a spatiotemporal downscaler of seasonal forecasts and multidecadal projections, both of which are generally of coarse resolution.

Meteorological Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) Instrument Handbook

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holdridge, Donna J [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kyrouac, Jenni A [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2017-08-01

The Meteorological Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) is a surface meteorological station, manufactured by Vaisala, Inc., dedicated to the balloon-borne sounding system (BBSS), providing surface measurements of the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere and the wind speed and direction for each radiosonde profile. These data are automatically provided to the BBSS during the launch procedure and included in the radiosonde profile as the surface measurements of record for the sounding. The MAWS core set of measurements is: Barometric Pressure (hPa), Temperature (°C), Relative Humidity (%), Arithmetic-Averaged Wind Speed (m/s), and Vector-Averaged Wind Direction (deg). The sensors that collect the core variables are mounted at the standard heights defined for each variable.

Variation of lithium isotope geochemistry during basalt weathering and secondary mineral transformations in Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Ryu, Jong-Sik; Vigier, Nathalie; Lee, Sin-Woo; Lee, Kwang-Sik; Chadwick, Oliver A.

2014-11-01

Lithium isotopes are a potential tracer of silicate weathering but the relationship between lithium isotope compositions and weathering state still need to be established with precision. Here, we report Li concentrations and Li isotope compositions of soils developed along a 4 million year humid-environment chronosequence in the Hawaiian Islands. Li concentrations are variable with depth and age, ranging from 0.24 to 21.3 ppm, and significant Li depletions (up to 92%) relative to parent basalts are systematically enhanced towards the surface. Our calculations show that the relative contribution from atmospheric deposits to the Li soil budget remains small, with a maximum contribution from dust Li of 20% at the oldest site. This is explained by the capacity of the weathering products to retain, within the profiles, the Li coming from basalt alteration, and allows us to explore more specifically the role of alteration processes on soil Li isotope signatures. The δ7Li values display a large range between -2.5‰ and +13.9‰. The youngest soils (0.3 ka) display the same δ7Li value as fresh basalt, regardless of depth, despite ∼30% Li loss by leaching, indicating that there is little Li isotope fractionation during the incipient stage of weathering. δ7Li values for the older soils (⩾20 ka) vary non-linearly as a function of time and can be explained by progressive mineral transformations starting with the synthesis of metastable short-range order (nano-crystalline) minerals and followed by their transformation into relatively inert secondary minerals. Results highlight significant Li isotope fractionation during secondary mineral formation and in particular during Li uptake by kaolinite. Finally, we suggest that the non-monotonous evolution of the regolith δ7Li value over the last 4 Ma is consistent with climatic variations, where congruent release of Li isotopes occurs during warmer periods.

Casebook on application for weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-11-01

This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator: External Validation, Variability, and Clinical Significance.

Science.gov (United States)

Gómez-Gómez, Enrique; Carrasco-Valiente, Julia; Blanca-Pedregosa, Ana; Barco-Sánchez, Beatriz; Fernandez-Rueda, Jose Luis; Molina-Abril, Helena; Valero-Rosa, Jose; Font-Ugalde, Pilar; Requena-Tapia, Maria José

2017-04-01

To externally validate the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (RC) and to evaluate its variability between 2 consecutive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values. We prospectively catalogued 1021 consecutive patients before prostate biopsy for suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa). The risk of PCa and significant PCa (Gleason score ≥7) from 749 patients was calculated according to ERSPC-RC (digital rectal examination-based version 3 of 4) for 2 consecutive PSA tests per patient. The calculators' predictions were analyzed using calibration plots and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve). Cohen kappa coefficient was used to compare the ability and variability. Of 749 patients, PCa was detected in 251 (33.5%) and significant PCa was detected in 133 (17.8%). Calibration plots showed an acceptable parallelism and similar discrimination ability for both PSA levels with an area under the curve of 0.69 for PCa and 0.74 for significant PCa. The ERSPC showed 226 (30.2%) unnecessary biopsies with the loss of 10 significant PCa. The variability of the RC was 16% for PCa and 20% for significant PCa, and a higher variability was associated with a reduced risk of significant PCa. We can conclude that the performance of the ERSPC-RC in the present cohort shows a high similitude between the 2 PSA levels; however, the RC variability value is associated with a decreased risk of significant PCa. The use of the ERSPC in our cohort detects a high number of unnecessary biopsies. Thus, the incorporation of ERSPC-RC could help the clinical decision to carry out a prostate biopsy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Asian Dust Weather Categorization with Satellite and Surface Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Tang-Huang; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Huang, Shih-Jen

2011-01-01

This study categorizes various dust weather types by means of satellite remote sensing over central Asia. Airborne dust particles can be identified by satellite remote sensing because of the different optical properties exhibited by coarse and fine particles (i.e. varying particle sizes). If a correlation can be established between the retrieved aerosol optical properties and surface visibility, the intensity of dust weather can be more effectively and consistently discerned using satellite rather than surface observations. In this article, datasets consisting of collocated products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Aqua and surface measurements are analysed. The results indicate an exponential relationship between the surface visibility and the satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth, which is subsequently used to categorize the dust weather. The satellite-derived spatial frequency distributions in the dust weather types are consistent with China s weather station reports during 2003, indicating that dust weather classification using satellite data is highly feasible. Although the period during the springtime from 2004 to 2007 may be not sufficient for statistical significance, our results reveal an increasing tendency in both intensity and frequency of dust weather over central Asia during this time period.

Weather Instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…

Weather Worlding: Learning with the Elements in Early Childhood

Science.gov (United States)

Rooney, Tonya

2018-01-01

In the context of challenges posed by climate change, this paper draws attention to the significance of children's relationship with weather. The paper contends that it is time to engage more closely with children's weather relations when developing and experimenting with new environmental pedagogies. Furthermore, it is argued that there is a need…

Constraining Silicate Weathering Processes in an Active Volcanic Complex: Implications for the Long-term Carbon Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Washington, K.; West, A. J.; Hartmann, J.; Amann, T.; Hosono, T.; Ide, K.

2017-12-01

While analyzing geochemical archives and carbon cycle modelling can further our understanding of the role of silicate weathering as a sink in the long-term carbon cycle, it is necessary to study modern weathering processes to inform these efforts. A recent compilation of data from rivers draining basaltic catchments estimates that rock weathering in active volcanic fields (AVFs) consumes atmospheric CO2 approximately three times faster than in inactive volcanic fields (IVFs), suggesting that the eruption and subsequent weathering of large igneous provinces likely played a major role in the carbon cycle in the geologic past [1]. The study demonstrates a significant correlation between catchment mean annual temperature (MAT) and atmospheric CO2 consumption rate for IVFs. However CO2 consumption due to weathering of AVFs is not correlated with MAT as the relationship is complicated by variability in hydrothermal fluxes, reactive surface area, and groundwater flow paths. To investigate the controls on weathering processes in AVFs, we present data for dissolved and solid weathering products from Mount Aso Caldera, Japan. Aso Caldera is an ideal site for studying the how the chemistry of rivers draining an AVF is impacted by high-temperature water/rock interactions, volcanic ash weathering, and varied groundwater flow paths and residence times. Samples were collected over five field seasons from two rivers and their tributaries, cold groundwater springs, and thermal springs. These samples capture the region's temperature and precipitation seasonality. Solid samples of unaltered volcanic rocks, hydrothermally-altered materials, volcanic ash, a soil profile, and suspended and bedload river sediments were also collected. The hydrochemistry of dissolved phases were analyzed at the University of Hamburg, while the mineralogy and geochemical compositions of solid phases were analyzed at the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles. This work will be discussed in the context of

A Milestone in Commercial Space Weather: USTAR Center for Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Tobiska, W.; Schunk, R. W.; Sojka, J. J.; Thompson, D. C.; Scherliess, L.; Zhu, L.; Gardner, L. C.

2009-12-01

As of 2009, Utah State University (USU) hosts a new organization to develop commercial space weather applications using funding that has been provided by the State of Utah’s Utah Science Technology and Research (USTAR) initiative. The USTAR Center for Space Weather (UCSW) is located on the USU campus in Logan, Utah and is developing innovative applications for mitigating adverse space weather effects in technological systems. Space weather’s effects upon the near-Earth environment are due to dynamic changes in the Sun’s photons, particles, and fields. Of the space environment domains that are affected by space weather, the ionosphere is the key region that affects communication and navigation systems. The UCSW has developed products for users of systems that are affected by space weather-driven ionospheric changes. For example, on September 1, 2009 USCW released, in conjunction with Space Environment Technologies, the world’s first real-time space weather via an iPhone app. Space WX displays the real-time, current global ionosphere total electron content along with its space weather drivers; it is available through the Apple iTunes store and is used around the planet. The Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements (GAIM) system is now being run operationally in real-time at UCSW with the continuous ingestion of hundreds of global data streams to dramatically improve the ionosphere’s characterization. We discuss not only funding and technical advances that have led to current products but also describe the direction for UCSW that includes partnering opportunities for moving commercial space weather into fully automated specification and forecasting over the next half decade.

Passenger bus industry weather information application.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-21

Adverse weather significantly affects the United States national transportation system, including commercial companies : that rely on highways to support their enterprises. The Passenger Bus (Motorcoach) Industry (PBI) is one such affected : user who...

Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

Science.gov (United States)

Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

1964-01-01

Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

Weatherization: Wyoming's Hidden Resource; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Wyoming demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weather derivatives or how an energy company can hedge its weather risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tahghighi, A.; Carpentier, Ph.

2000-01-01

This paper gives a detailed overview of weather derivatives and explains where this new class of financial products falls. The emergence of weather derivatives came about as a response to a need in the energy sector to hedge this sector's weather risks. This article focuses on the nature of these financial contracts, what they include and how they are priced. This article concludes by stating that energy companies in Europe can no longer afford to remain exposed to weather risks in an increasingly privatized and competitive market

Formation of halloysite from feldspar: Low temperature, artificial weathering versus natural weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Parham, Walter E.

1969-01-01

Weathering products formed on surfaces of both potassium and plagioclase feldspar (An70), which were continuously leached in a Soxhlet extraction apparatus for 140 days with 7.21 of distilled water per day at a temperature of approximately 78°C, are morphologically identical to natural products developed on potassium feldspars weathered under conditions of good drainage in the humid tropics. The new products, which first appear as tiny bumps on the feldspar surface, start to develop mainly at exposed edges but also at apparently random sites on flat cleavage surfaces. As weathering continues, the bumps grow outward from the feldspar surface to form tapered projections, which then develop into wide-based thin films or sheets. The thin sheets of many projections merge laterally to form one continuous flame-shaped sheet. The sheets formed on potassium feldspars may then roll to form tubes that are inclined at a high angle to the feldspar surface. Etch pits of triangular outline on the artificially weathered potassium feldspars serve as sites for development of continuous, non-rolled, hollow tubes. It is inferred from its morphology that this weathering product is halloysite or its primitive form. The product of naturally weathered potassium feldspars is halloysite . 4H2O.The flame-shaped films or sheets formed on artificially weathered plagioclase feldspar do not develop into hollow tubes, but instead give rise to a platy mineral that is most probably boehmite. These plates form within the flame-shaped films, and with continued weathering are released as the film deteriorates. There is no indication from this experiment that platy pseudohexagonal kaolinite forms from any of these minerals under the initial stage of weathering.

Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip.

Science.gov (United States)

Zamora, Jane Louie Fresco; Kashihara, Shigeru; Yamaguchi, Suguru

2015-01-01

Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values.

Statistical Significance of the Contribution of Variables to the PCA Solution: An Alternative Permutation Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Linting, Marielle; van Os, Bart Jan; Meulman, Jacqueline J.

2011-01-01

In this paper, the statistical significance of the contribution of variables to the principal components in principal components analysis (PCA) is assessed nonparametrically by the use of permutation tests. We compare a new strategy to a strategy used in previous research consisting of permuting the columns (variables) of a data matrix…

Weather Information Processing

Science.gov (United States)

1991-01-01

Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

Wacky Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

2013-01-01

What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

Hydrologic applications of weather radar

Science.gov (United States)

Seo, Dong-Jun; Habib, Emad; Andrieu, Hervé; Morin, Efrat

2015-12-01

By providing high-resolution quantitative precipitation information (QPI), weather radars have revolutionized hydrology in the last two decades. With the aid of GIS technology, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) have enabled routine high-resolution hydrologic modeling in many parts of the world. Given the ever-increasing need for higher-resolution hydrologic and water resources information for a wide range of applications, one may expect that the use of weather radar will only grow. Despite the tremendous progress, a number of significant scientific, technological and engineering challenges remain to realize its potential. New challenges are also emerging as new areas of applications are discovered, explored and pursued. The purpose of this special issue is to provide the readership with some of the latest advances, lessons learned, experiences gained, and science issues and challenges related to hydrologic applications of weather radar. The special issue features 20 contributions on various topics which reflect the increasing diversity as well as the areas of focus in radar hydrology today. The contributions may be grouped as follows:

Propagation of hydroclimatic variability through the critical zone

Science.gov (United States)

Porporato, A. M.; Calabrese, S.; Parolari, A.

2016-12-01

The interaction between soil moisture dynamics and mineral-weathering reactions (e.g., ion exchange, precipitation-dissolution) affects the availability of nutrients to plants, composition of soils, soil acidification, as well as CO2 sequestration. Across the critical zone (CZ), this interaction is responsible for propagating hydroclimatic fluctuations to deeper soil layers, controlling weathering rates via leaching events which intermittently alter the alkalinity levels. In this contribution, we analyze these dynamics using a stochastic modeling approach based on spatially lumped description of soil hydrology and chemical weathering reactions forced by multi-scale temporal hydrologic variability. We quantify the role of soil moisture dynamics in filtering the rainfall fluctuations through its impacts on soil water chemistry, described by a system of ordinary differential equations (and algebraic equations, for the equilibrium reactions), driving the evolution of alkalinity, pH, the chemical species of the soil solution, and the mineral-weathering rate. A probabilistic description of the evolution of the critical zone is thus obtained, allowing us to describe the CZ response to long-term climate fluctuations, ecosystem and land-use conditions, in terms of key variables groups. The model is applied to the weathering rate of albite in the Calhoun CZ observatory and then extended to explore similarities and differences across other CZs. Typical time scales of response and degrees of sensitivities of CZ to hydroclimatic fluctuations and human forcing are also explored.

Weathering durability of commercial polymeric coatings tested by positron annihilation spectroscopy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, H.; Peng, Q.; Huang, Y.Y.; Zhang, R.; Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Wu, Y.C.; Richardson, J.R.; Sandreczki, T.C.; Jean, Y.C.

2003-01-01

A series of commercial coatings were prepared according to the industrial specifications and were exposed to Florida natural weathering and controlled UVA irradiation. The Doppler broadening energy spectra (DBES) of positron annihilation were measured as a function of incident positron energy at different periods of weathering. A significant decrease in the S parameter was observed and it was used as an indicator to test coating durability in micro-scale. Application to weathering durability of commercial polymeric coatings under natural weathering and controlled UVA irradiation is investigated by using the S parameter from the DBES

From AWE-GEN to AWE-GEN-2d: a high spatial and temporal resolution weather generator

Science.gov (United States)

Peleg, Nadav; Fatichi, Simone; Paschalis, Athanasios; Molnar, Peter; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

A new weather generator, AWE-GEN-2d (Advanced WEather GENerator for 2-Dimension grid) is developed following the philosophy of combining physical and stochastic approaches to simulate meteorological variables at high spatial and temporal resolution (e.g. 2 km x 2 km and 5 min for precipitation and cloud cover and 100 m x 100 m and 1 h for other variables variable (temperature, solar radiation, vapor pressure, atmospheric pressure and near-surface wind). The model is suitable to investigate the impacts of climate variability, temporal and spatial resolutions of forcing on hydrological, ecological, agricultural and geomorphological impacts studies. Using appropriate parameterization the model can be used in the context of climate change. Here we present the model technical structure of AWE-GEN-2d, which is a substantial evolution of four preceding models (i) the hourly-point scale Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN) presented by Fatichi et al. (2011, Adv. Water Resour.) (ii) the Space-Time Realizations of Areal Precipitation (STREAP) model introduced by Paschalis et al. (2013, Water Resour. Res.), (iii) the High-Resolution Synoptically conditioned Weather Generator developed by Peleg and Morin (2014, Water Resour. Res.), and (iv) the Wind-field Interpolation by Non Divergent Schemes presented by Burlando et al. (2007, Boundary-Layer Meteorol.). The AWE-GEN-2d is relatively parsimonious in terms of computational demand and allows generating many stochastic realizations of current and projected climates in an efficient way. An example of model application and testing is presented with reference to a case study in the Wallis region, a complex orography terrain in the Swiss Alps.

Weather Radar Stations

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B

Improving GEFS Weather Forecasts for Indian Monsoon with Statistical Downscaling

Science.gov (United States)

Agrawal, Ankita; Salvi, Kaustubh; Ghosh, Subimal

2014-05-01

Weather forecast has always been a challenging research problem, yet of a paramount importance as it serves the role of 'key input' in formulating modus operandi for immediate future. Short range rainfall forecasts influence a wide range of entities, right from agricultural industry to a common man. Accurate forecasts actually help in minimizing the possible damage by implementing pre-decided plan of action and hence it is necessary to gauge the quality of forecasts which might vary with the complexity of weather state and regional parameters. Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) is one such perfect arena to check the quality of weather forecast not only because of the level of intricacy in spatial and temporal patterns associated with it, but also the amount of damage it can cause (because of poor forecasts) to the Indian economy by affecting agriculture Industry. The present study is undertaken with the rationales of assessing, the ability of Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) in predicting ISMR over central India and the skill of statistical downscaling technique in adding value to the predictions by taking them closer to evidentiary target dataset. GEFS is a global numerical weather prediction system providing the forecast results of different climate variables at a fine resolution (0.5 degree and 1 degree). GEFS shows good skills in predicting different climatic variables but fails miserably over rainfall predictions for Indian summer monsoon rainfall, which is evident from a very low to negative correlation values between predicted and observed rainfall. Towards the fulfilment of second rationale, the statistical relationship is established between the reasonably well predicted climate variables (GEFS) and observed rainfall. The GEFS predictors are treated with multicollinearity and dimensionality reduction techniques, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Statistical relationship is

Internet Weather Source

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

1999-10-01

We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Li-Wei

2017-09-01

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: `grains', `vegetables', `fruits', `flowers' and `other crops'. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of `grains', `vegetables', `fruits' and `flowers'. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.

Mariners Weather Log

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

Pilot Weather Reports

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane Louie Fresco Zamora

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values.

Surface Weather Observations

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

Radar Weather Observation

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

Relationship between onset of spontaneous pneumothorax and weather conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mishina, Taijiro; Watanabe, Atsushi; Miyajima, Masahiro; Nakazawa, Junji

2017-09-01

Spontaneous pneumothorax (SP) results from the rupture of blebs or bullae. It has been suggested that changes in weather conditions may trigger the onset of SP. Our aim was to examine the association between the onset of primary SP with weather changes in the general population in Sapporo, Japan. From January 2008 through September 2013, 345 consecutive cases with a diagnosis of primary SP were reviewed. All cases of primary SP developed in the area within 40 km from the Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory. Climatic measurements were obtained from the Observatory, which included 1-h readings of weather conditions. Logistic regression model was used to obtain predicted risks for the onset of SP with respect to weather conditions. SP occurred significantly when the atmospheric pressure decreased by - 18 hPa or less during 96 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.379, P = 0.026), when the pressure increased by 15 hPa or more during 72 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.095, P = 0.007) and when maximum fluctuation in atmospheric pressure over 22 hPa was observed during 96 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.519, P = 0.001). Other weather conditions, including the presence of thunderstorms, were not significantly correlated with the onset of pneumothorax. Changes in atmospheric pressure influence the onset of SP. Future studies on the relationship between the onset of SP and weather conditions on days other than before the onset and with large number of patients may enable us to predict the onset of SP in various regions and weather conditions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

The Sun/Earth System and Space Weather

Science.gov (United States)

Poland, Arthur I.; Fox, Nicola; Lucid, Shannon

2003-01-01

Solar variability and solar activity are now seen as significant drivers with respect to the Earth and human technology systems. Observations over the last 10 years have significantly advanced our understanding of causes and effects in the Sun/Earth system. On a practical level the interactions between the Sun and Earth dictate how we build our systems in space (communications satellites, GPS, etc), and some of our ground systems (power grids). This talk will be about the Sun/Earth system: how it changes with time, its magnetic interactions, flares, the solar wind, and how the Sun effects human systems. Data will be presented from some current spacecraft which show, for example, how we are able to currently give warnings to the scientific community, the Government and industry about space storms and how this data has improved our physical understanding of processes on the Sun and in the magnetosphere. The scientific advances provided by our current spacecraft has led to a new program in NASA to develop a 'Space Weather' system called 'Living With a Star'. The current plan for the 'Living With a Star' program will also be presented.

Activities of NICT space weather project

Science.gov (United States)

Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

Psychological mechanisms in outdoor place and weather assessment: towards a conceptual model

Science.gov (United States)

Knez, Igor; Thorsson, Sofia; Eliasson, Ingegärd; Lindberg, Fredrik

2009-01-01

The general aim has been to illuminate the psychological mechanisms involved in outdoor place and weather assessment. This reasoning was conceptualized in a model, tentatively proposing direct and indirect links of influence in an outdoor place-human relationship. The model was subsequently tested by an empirical study, performed in a Nordic city, on the impact of weather and personal factors on participants’ perceptual and emotional estimations of outdoor urban places. In line with our predictions, we report significant influences of weather parameters (air temperature, wind, and cloudlessness) and personal factors (environmental attitude and age) on participants’ perceptual and emotional estimations of outdoor urban places. All this is a modest, yet significant, step towards an understanding of the psychology of outdoor place and weather assessment.

Temporal and spatial variability of rainfall distribution and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Rainfall and evapotranspiration are the two major climatic factors affecting agricultural production. This study examined the extent and nature of rainfall variability from measured data while estimation of evapotranspiration was made from recorded weather data. Analysis of rainfall variability is made by the rainfall anomaly ...

Effects of weather and heliophysical conditions on emergency ambulance calls for elevated arterial blood pressure.

Science.gov (United States)

Vencloviene, Jone; Babarskiene, Ruta M; Dobozinskas, Paulius; Sakalyte, Gintare; Lopatiene, Kristina; Mikelionis, Nerijus

2015-02-27

We hypothesized that weather and space weather conditions were associated with the exacerbation of essential hypertension. The study was conducted during 2009-2010 in the city of Kaunas, Lithuania. We analyzed 13,475 cards from emergency ambulance calls (EACs), in which the conditions for the emergency calls were made coded I.10-I.15. The Kaunas Weather Station provided daily records of air temperature (T), wind speed (WS), relative humidity, and barometric pressure (BP). We evaluated the associations between daily weather variables and daily number of EACs by applying a multivariate Poisson regression. Unfavorable heliophysical conditions (two days after the active-stormy geomagnetic field or the days with solar WS>600 km/s) increased the daily number of elevated arterial blood pressure (EABP) by 12% (RR=1.12; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.21); and WS≥3.5 knots during days of Tweather conditions. These results may help in the understanding of the population's sensitivity to different weather conditions.

Daily Weather Records

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

Datasets on abundance of common blossom thrips and weather variables in small-scale avocado orchards at Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James J. Odanga

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Avocado, Persea americana Miller (Lauraceae, is an important fruit crop cultivated by small-holder farmers along Afrotropical highlands of Taita Hills in South-eastern Kenya and Mount Kilimanjaro in Northern Tanzania. The small-holder farmers in these East African regions generate substantial food and cash from avocado fruits. However, the avocado crop is faced with challenges of infestation by insect pests such as the common blossom thrips (Frankliniella schultzei Trybom which feeds on pollen and floral tissue thereby reducing productivity of the trees. Moreover, there is no information describing distribution patterns of Frankliniella schultzei and associated weather in East African avocado orchards despite the fact that small-scale farming is dependent on rainfall. This article was, therefore, initiated to provide dataset on abundance of Frankliniella schultzei from the avocado plants that relates with monthly rainfall and air temperatures at Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro. Frankliniella schultzei was collected using white coloured beating tray and camel brush whereas air temperatures (°C and rainfall (mm was recorded daily using automatic data loggers and rain gauge, respectively. The survey at the two transects commenced during peak flowering season of avocado crop in August up to end of harvesting period in July of the following year. Temporal datasets were generated by Kruskal-Wallis Chi-square test. Current temporal datasets presents strong baseline information specifically for Kenya and Tanzania government agencies to develop further agricultural strategies aimed at improving avocado farming within Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro agro-ecosystems. Keywords: Frankliniella schultzei, Avocado, Weather variables, Taita Hills, Mount Kilimanjaro

Adapting to the Weather: Lessons from U.S. History.

Science.gov (United States)

Bleakley, Hoyt; Hong, Sok Chul

2017-09-01

An important unknown in understanding the impact of climate change is the scope of adaptation, which requires observations on historical time scales. We consider how weather across U.S. history (1860-2000) has affected various measures of productivity. Using cross-sectional and panel methods, we document significant responses of agricultural and individual productivity to weather. We find strong effects of hotter and wetter weather early in U.S. history, but these effects have been attenuated in recent decades. The results suggest that estimates from a given period may be of limited use in forecasting the longer-term impacts of climate change.

Significance of blood pressure variability in patients with sepsis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pandey, Nishant Raj; Bian, Yu-Yao; Shou, Song-Tao

2014-01-01

This study was undertaken to observe the characteristics of blood pressure variability (BPV) and sepsis and to investigate changes in blood pressure and its value on the severity of illness in patients with sepsis. Blood parameters, APACHE II score, and 24-hour ambulatory BP were analyzed in 89 patients with sepsis. In patients with APACHE II score>19, the values of systolic blood pressure (SBPV), diasystolic blood pressure (DBPV), non-dipper percentage, cortisol (COR), lactate (LAC), platelet count (PLT) and glucose (GLU) were significantly higher than in those with APACHE II score ≤19 (Pblood cell (WBC), creatinine (Cr), PaO2, C-reactive protein (CRP), adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) were not statistically significant (P>0.05). Correlation analysis showed that APACHE II scores correlated significantly with SBPV and DBPV (P0.05). Logistic regression analysis of SBPV, DBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was used to predict prognosis in terms of survival and non-survival rates. Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) showed that DBPV was a better predictor of survival rate with an AUC value of 0.890. However, AUC of SBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was 0.746, 0.831 and 0.915, respectively. The values of SBPV, DBPV and non-dipper percentage are higher in patients with sepsis. DBPV and SBPV can be used to predict the survival rate of patients with sepsis.

NASA Aviation Safety Program Weather Accident Prevention/weather Information Communications (WINCOMM)

Science.gov (United States)

Feinberg, Arthur; Tauss, James; Chomos, Gerald (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Weather is a contributing factor in approximately 25-30 percent of general aviation accidents. The lack of timely, accurate and usable weather information to the general aviation pilot in the cockpit to enhance pilot situational awareness and improve pilot judgment remains a major impediment to improving aviation safety. NASA Glenn Research Center commissioned this 120 day weather datalink market survey to assess the technologies, infrastructure, products, and services of commercial avionics systems being marketed to the general aviation community to address these longstanding safety concerns. A market survey of companies providing or proposing to provide graphical weather information to the general aviation cockpit was conducted. Fifteen commercial companies were surveyed. These systems are characterized and evaluated in this report by availability, end-user pricing/cost, system constraints/limits and technical specifications. An analysis of market survey results and an evaluation of product offerings were made. In addition, recommendations to NASA for additional research and technology development investment have been made as a result of this survey to accelerate deployment of cockpit weather information systems for enhancing aviation safety.

Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Christopher M.; Fan, Xingang; Mahmood, Rezaul; Groves, Chris; Polk, Jason S.; Yan, Jun

2018-03-01

Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land-atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant

Tool for Constructing Data Albums for Significant Weather Events

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, A.; Ramachandran, R.; Conover, H.; McEniry, M.; Goodman, H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Braun, S. A.; Wilson, B. D.

2012-12-01

Case study analysis and climatology studies are common approaches used in Atmospheric Science research. Research based on case studies involves a detailed description of specific weather events using data from different sources, to characterize physical processes in play for a given event. Climatology-based research tends to focus on the representativeness of a given event, by studying the characteristics and distribution of a large number of events. To gather relevant data and information for case studies and climatology analysis is tedious and time consuming; current Earth Science data systems are not suited to assemble multi-instrument, multi mission datasets around specific events. For example, in hurricane science, finding airborne or satellite data relevant to a given storm requires searching through web pages and data archives. Background information related to damages, deaths, and injuries requires extensive online searches for news reports and official storm summaries. We will present a knowledge synthesis engine to create curated "Data Albums" to support case study analysis and climatology studies. The technological challenges in building such a reusable and scalable knowledge synthesis engine are several. First, how to encode domain knowledge in a machine usable form? This knowledge must capture what information and data resources are relevant and the semantic relationships between the various fragments of information and data. Second, how to extract semantic information from various heterogeneous sources including unstructured texts using the encoded knowledge? Finally, how to design a structured database from the encoded knowledge to store all information and to support querying? The structured database must allow both knowledge overviews of an event as well as drill down capability needed for detailed analysis. An application ontology driven framework is being used to design the knowledge synthesis engine. The knowledge synthesis engine is being

Influence of winter NAO pattern on variable renewable energies potential in Europe over the 20th century

Science.gov (United States)

François, Baptiste; Raynaud, Damien; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique

2017-04-01

Integration of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources in the electricity system is a challenge because of temporal and spatial fluctuations of their power generation resulting from their driving weather variables (i.e. solar radiation wind speed, precipitation, and temperature). Very few attention was paid to low frequency variability (i.e. from annual to decades) even though it may have significant impact on energy system and energy market Following the current increase in electricity supplied by VRE generation, one could ask the question about the risk of ending up in a situation in which the level of production of one or more VRE is exceptionally low or exceptionally high for a long period of time and/or over a large area. What would be the risk for an investor if the return on investment has been calculated on a high energy production period? What would be the cost in term of carbon emission whether the system manager needs to turn on coal power plant to satisfy the demand? Such dramatic events would definitely impact future stakeholder decision to invest in a particular energy source or another. Weather low frequency variability is mainly governed by large-scale teleconnection patterns impacting the climate at global scale such as El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropics and in North America or the North Atlantic Oscillation (hereafter, NAO) in North America and Europe. Teleconnection pattern's influence on weather variability cascades to VRE variability and ends up by impacting electricity system. The aim of this study is to analysis the impact of the NAO on VRE generation in Europe during the winter season. The analysis is carried out over the twentieth century (i.e. from 1900 to 2010), in order to take into account climate low frequency variability, and for a set of 12 regions covering a large range of climates in Europe. Weather variable time series are obtained by using the ERA20C reanalysis and the SCAMP model (Sequential Constructive

Cave breakdown by vadose weathering.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Osborne R. Armstrong L.

2002-01-01

Full Text Available Vadose weathering is a significant mechanism for initiating breakdown in caves. Vadose weathering of ore bodies, mineral veins, palaeokarst deposits, non-carbonate keystones and impure, altered or fractured bedrock, which is intersected by caves, will frequently result in breakdown. Breakdown is an active, ongoing process. Breakdown occurs throughout the vadose zone, and is not restricted to large diameter passages, or to cave ceilings. The surfaces of disarticulated blocks are commonly coated, rather than having fresh broken faces, and blocks continue to disintegrate after separating from the bedrock. Not only gypsum, but also hydromagnesite and aragonite are responsible for crystal wedging. It is impossible to study or identify potential breakdown foci by surface surveys alone, in-cave observation and mapping are essential.

Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

Workshop Report on Space Weather Risks and Society

Science.gov (United States)

Langhoff, Stephanie R.; Straume, Tore

2012-01-01

As technological innovations produce new capabilities, complexities, and interdependencies, our susceptibility to the societal impacts of space weather increase. There is real concern in the scientific community that our infrastructure would be at significant risk if a major geomagnetic storm should occur. To discuss the societal impacts of space weather, we brought together an interdisciplinary group of subject matter experts and societal stakeholders to participate in a workshop entitled Space Weather Risks and Society. The workshop was held at Ames Research Center (ARC) on 15-16 October 2011. The workshop was co-sponsored by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center (LMATC), the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA), and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL, part of the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council STFC). The workshop is part of a series of informal weekend workshops hosted by Center Director Pete Worden.

Winter Weather Emergencies

Science.gov (United States)

Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

NASA GSFC Space Weather Center - Innovative Space Weather Dissemination: Web-Interfaces, Mobile Applications, and More

Science.gov (United States)

Maddox, Marlo; Zheng, Yihua; Rastaetter, Lutz; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Kuznetsova, M.; Lee, Hyesook; Chulaki, Anna; Hesse, Michael; Mullinix, Richard;

Comparative study of the reliability of MPPT algorithms for the crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules in variable weather conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abraham Dandoussou

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules are widely used as power supply sources in the tropical areas where the weather conditions change abruptly. Fortunately, many MPPT algorithms are implemented to improve their performance. In the other hand, it is well known that these power supply sources are nonlinear dipoles and so, their intrinsic parameters may vary with the irradiance and the temperature. In this paper, the MPPT algorithms widely used, i.e. Perturb and Observe (P&O, Incremental Conductance (INC, Hill-Climbing (HC, are implemented using Matlab®/Simulink® model of a crystalline silicon photovoltaic module whose intrinsic parameters were extracted by fitting the I(V characteristic to experimental points. Comparing the simulation results, it is obvious that the variable step size INC algorithm has the best reliability than both HC and P&O algorithms for the near to real Simulink® model of photovoltaic modules. With a 60 Wp photovoltaic module, the daily maximum power reaches 50.76 W against 34.40 W when the photovoltaic parameters are fixed. Meanwhile, the daily average energy is 263 Wh/day against 195 Wh/day.

Concept of Operations for Road Weather Connected Vehicle and Automated Vehicle Applications

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-21

Weather has a significant impact on the operations of the nation's roadway system year round. These weather events translate into changes in traffic conditions, roadway safety, travel reliability, operational effectiveness and productivity. It is, th...

Significance of the impact of motion compensation on the variability of PET image features

Science.gov (United States)

Carles, M.; Bach, T.; Torres-Espallardo, I.; Baltas, D.; Nestle, U.; Martí-Bonmatí, L.

2018-03-01

In lung cancer, quantification by positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) imaging presents challenges due to respiratory movement. Our primary aim was to study the impact of motion compensation implied by retrospectively gated (4D)-PET/CT on the variability of PET quantitative parameters. Its significance was evaluated by comparison with the variability due to (i) the voxel size in image reconstruction and (ii) the voxel size in image post-resampling. The method employed for feature extraction was chosen based on the analysis of (i) the effect of discretization of the standardized uptake value (SUV) on complementarity between texture features (TF) and conventional indices, (ii) the impact of the segmentation method on the variability of image features, and (iii) the variability of image features across the time-frame of 4D-PET. Thirty-one PET-features were involved. Three SUV discretization methods were applied: a constant width (SUV resolution) of the resampling bin (method RW), a constant number of bins (method RN) and RN on the image obtained after histogram equalization (method EqRN). The segmentation approaches evaluated were 40% of SUVmax and the contrast oriented algorithm (COA). Parameters derived from 4D-PET images were compared with values derived from the PET image obtained for (i) the static protocol used in our clinical routine (3D) and (ii) the 3D image post-resampled to the voxel size of the 4D image and PET image derived after modifying the reconstruction of the 3D image to comprise the voxel size of the 4D image. Results showed that TF complementarity with conventional indices was sensitive to the SUV discretization method. In the comparison of COA and 40% contours, despite the values not being interchangeable, all image features showed strong linear correlations (r  >  0.91, p\\ll 0.001 ). Across the time-frames of 4D-PET, all image features followed a normal distribution in most patients. For our patient cohort, the

a Study of Risk Preferences and Perceptions of Weather Variability of Smallholder Subsistence Farmers in Malawi

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, S.; Michelson, H. C.

2013-12-01

called parametric Dynamic Experiments for Estimating Preferences developed at Columbia University to measure three prospect theory parameters using an adaptive survey tool installed on a tablet PC. Our work is the first to use an adaptive survey tool to measure risk preferences and to combine these measures with both panel data on agricultural investments and beliefs about climate change using scenarios. Despite the need for better understanding of how farmer preferences over time and risk might influence technology adoption and production decisions made by farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a critical gap in research about this topic. Whether and how vulnerability to climate change has entered the mind frame of farmers is explored with a scenario setup, in which farmers are asked to provide advice to a hypothetical farmer facing low yields due to a prolonged drought. Farmer responses to the scenarios give us information about both the channel through which farmers receive information about agriculture and adaptation and primary factors mentioned to be important agricultural strategies in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. This research offers insights to understand decision-making process of smallholder farmers, who face adverse effects of weather variability and the present problem of low soil fertility.

Fair weather atmospheric electricity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, R G

2011-01-01

Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

Fundamental statistical relationships between monthly and daily meteorological variables: Temporal downscaling of weather based on a global observational dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed

2016-04-01

Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.

Aviation & Space Weather Policy Research: Integrating Space Weather Observations & Forecasts into Operations

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, G.; Jones, B.

2006-12-01

The American Meteorological Society and SolarMetrics Limited are conducting a policy research project leading to recommendations that will increase the safety, reliability, and efficiency of the nation's airline operations through more effective use of space weather forecasts and information. This study, which is funded by a 3-year National Science Foundation grant, also has the support of the Federal Aviation Administration and the Joint Planning and Development Office (JPDO) who is planning the Next Generation Air Transportation System. A major component involves interviewing and bringing together key people in the aviation industry who deal with space weather information. This research also examines public and industrial strategies and plans to respond to space weather information. The focus is to examine policy issues in implementing effective application of space weather services to the management of the nation's aviation system. The results from this project will provide government and industry leaders with additional tools and information to make effective decisions with respect to investments in space weather research and services. While space weather can impact the entire aviation industry, and this project will address national and international issues, the primary focus will be on developing a U.S. perspective for the airlines.

Space Weather Services of Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

2016-12-01

The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

Using Remote Sensing, Weather, and Demographic Data to Create Risk Maps for Zika, Dengue, and Chikungunya in Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Manore, C.; Conrad, J.; Del Valle, S.; Ziemann, A.; Fairchild, G.; Generous, E. N.

2017-12-01

Mosquito-borne diseases such as Zika, dengue, and chikungunya viruses have dynamics coupled to weather, ecology, human infrastructure, socio-economic demographics, and behavior. We use time-varying remote sensing and weather data, along with demographics and ecozones to predict risk through time for Zika, dengue, and chikungunya outbreaks in Brazil. We use distributed lag methods to quantify the lag between outbreaks and weather. Our statistical model indicates that the relationships between the variables are complex, but that quantifying risk is possible with the right data at appropriate spatio-temporal scales.

The effect of inclement weather on trauma orthopaedic workload.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cashman, J P

2012-01-31

BACKGROUND: Climate change models predict increasing frequency of extreme weather. One of the challenges hospitals face is how to make sure they have adequate staffing at various times of the year. AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of this severe inclement weather on hospital admissions, operative workload and cost in the Irish setting. We hypothesised that there is a direct relationship between cold weather and workload in a regional orthopaedic trauma unit. METHODS: Trauma orthopaedic workload in a regional trauma unit was examined over 2 months between December 2009 and January 2010. This corresponded with a period of severe inclement weather. RESULTS: We identified a direct correlation between the drop in temperature and increase in workload, with a corresponding increase in demand on resources. CONCLUSIONS: Significant cost savings could be made if these injuries were prevented. While the information contained in this study is important in the context of resource planning and staffing of hospital trauma units, it also highlights the vulnerability of the Irish population to wintery weather.

Producing Daily and Embedded Hourly Rainfall Data Using a Novel Weather Generator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ching-Pin Tung

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The number of worldwide extreme drought and flood events has risen significantly in recent years. Many studies confer that climate change may cause more intensive and extreme events. Simulating the impact of climate change often requires weather data as inputs to assessment models. Stochastic weather generators have been developed to produce weather data with the same temporal resolution based on the outputs of GCMs. Reservoir simulation normally uses operational rules in daily and hourly time steps for water supply and flood reduction, respectively. Simulating consecutive drought and flood events simultaneously requires a weather generator to produce different temporal resolution data. This work develops a continuous weather generator to generate daily and hourly precipitation data for regular wet days and severe storms, respectively. Daily rainfall data is generated for regular wet days using Exponential distribution or Weibull distribution, while the total rainfall data for severe storms is generated using the Pearson type III or Log Pearson type III distribution. Moreover, hourly rainfall is determined based on generated hyetographs. Simulation results indicate that the proposed continuous weather generator can generate daily and hourly rainfall reasonably. The proposed weather generator is thus highly promising for use in evaluating how climate change impacts reservoir operations that are significantly influenced by more frequent and intensive consecutive drought and flood events.

Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

Science.gov (United States)

Jarrell, Michael; Tanger, Thomas

2004-01-01

Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction at the Met Office and potential ways forward for operational space weather prediction systems

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, David

NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

A Mathematical Model of Hourly Solar Radiation in Varying Weather Conditions for a Dynamic Simulation of the Solar Organic Rankine Cycle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taehong Sung

2015-07-01

Full Text Available A mathematical model of hourly solar radiation with weather variability is proposed based on the simple sky model. The model uses a superposition of trigonometric functions with short and long periods. We investigate the effects of the model variables on the clearness (kD and the probability of persistence (POPD indices and also evaluate the proposed model for all of the kD-POPD weather classes. A simple solar organic Rankine cycle (SORC system with thermal storage is simulated using the actual weather conditions, and then, the results are compared with the simulation results using the proposed model and the simple sky model. The simulation results show that the proposed model provides more accurate system operation characteristics than the simple sky model.

Tactical Versus Strategic Behavior: General Aviation Piloting in Convective Weather Scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Latorella, Kara A.; Chamberlain, James P.

2002-01-01

We commonly describe environments and behavioral responses to environmental conditions as 'tactical' and 'strategic.' However theoretical research defining relevant environmental characteristics is rare, as are empirical investigations that would inform such theory. This paper discusses General Aviation (GA) pilots' descriptions of tactical/strategic conditions with respect to weather flying, and evaluates their ratings along a tactical/strategic scale in response to real convective weather scenarios experienced during a flight experiment with different weather information cues. Perceived risk was significantly associated with ratings for all experimental conditions. In addition, environmental characteristics were found to be predictive of ratings for Traditional IMC (instrument meteorological conditions), i.e., aural weather information only, and Traditional VMC (visual meteorological conditions), i.e., aural information and an external view. The paper also presents subjects' comments regarding use of Graphical Weather Information Systems (GWISs) to support tactical and strategic weather flying decisions and concludes with implications for the design and use of GWISs.

DEM investigation of weathered rocks using a novel bond contact model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenming Shi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The distinct element method (DEM incorporated with a novel bond contact model was applied in this paper to shed light on the microscopic physical origin of macroscopic behaviors of weathered rock, and to achieve the changing laws of microscopic parameters from observed decaying properties of rocks during weathering. The changing laws of macroscopic mechanical properties of typical rocks were summarized based on the existing research achievements. Parametric simulations were then conducted to analyze the relationships between macroscopic and microscopic parameters, and to derive the changing laws of microscopic parameters for the DEM model. Equipped with the microscopic weathering laws, a series of DEM simulations of basic laboratory tests on weathered rock samples was performed in comparison with analytical solutions. The results reveal that the relationships between macroscopic and microscopic parameters of rocks against the weathering period can be successfully attained by parametric simulations. In addition, weathering has a significant impact on both stress–strain relationship and failure pattern of rocks.

Evaluating meteorological data from weather stations, and from satellites and global models for a multi-site epidemiological study.

Science.gov (United States)

Colston, Josh M; Ahmed, Tahmeed; Mahopo, Cloupas; Kang, Gagandeep; Kosek, Margaret; de Sousa Junior, Francisco; Shrestha, Prakash Sunder; Svensen, Erling; Turab, Ali; Zaitchik, Benjamin

2018-04-21

Longitudinal and time series analyses are needed to characterize the associations between hydrometeorological parameters and health outcomes. Earth Observation (EO) climate data products derived from satellites and global model-based reanalysis have the potential to be used as surrogates in situations and locations where weather-station based observations are inadequate or incomplete. However, these products often lack direct evaluation at specific sites of epidemiological interest. Standard evaluation metrics of correlation, agreement, bias and error were applied to a set of ten hydrometeorological variables extracted from two quasi-global, commonly used climate data products - the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) - to evaluate their performance relative to weather-station derived estimates at the specific geographic locations of the eight sites in a multi-site cohort study. These metrics were calculated for both daily estimates and 7-day averages and for a rotavirus-peak-season subset. Then the variables from the two sources were each used as predictors in longitudinal regression models to test their association with rotavirus infection in the cohort after adjusting for covariates. The availability and completeness of station-based validation data varied depending on the variable and study site. The performance of the two gridded climate models varied considerably within the same location and for the same variable across locations, according to different evaluation criteria and for the peak-season compared to the full dataset in ways that showed no obvious pattern. They also differed in the statistical significance of their association with the rotavirus outcome. For some variables, the station-based records showed a strong association while the EO-derived estimates showed none, while for others, the opposite was true. Researchers wishing to utilize publicly available climate data

Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.

2015-12-01

Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be

Weather and rheumatoid arthritis : the role of the microclimate near the skin

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Patberg, Wiebe Reinier

2005-01-01

Although there is a widespread opinion that weather affects arthritis, scientific proof is lacking. The number of studies on this subject is small, which might be explained by the difficulty of monitoring disease activity in RA. Subjective variables like pain can be judged every day, but the daily

Understanding the significance variables for fabrication of fish gelatin nanoparticles by Plackett-Burman design

Science.gov (United States)

Subara, Deni; Jaswir, Irwandi; Alkhatib, Maan Fahmi Rashid; Noorbatcha, Ibrahim Ali

2018-01-01

The aim of this experiment is to screen and to understand the process variables on the fabrication of fish gelatin nanoparticles by using quality-design approach. The most influencing process variables were screened by using Plackett-Burman design. Mean particles size, size distribution, and zeta potential were found in the range 240±9.76 nm, 0.3, and -9 mV, respectively. Statistical results explained that concentration of acetone, pH of solution during precipitation step and volume of cross linker had a most significant effect on particles size of fish gelatin nanoparticles. It was found that, time and chemical consuming is lower than previous research. This study revealed the potential of quality-by design in understanding the effects of process variables on the fish gelatin nanoparticles production.

Analysis on the Intention to Purchase Weather Index Insurance and Development Agenda

Science.gov (United States)

Park, K.; Jung, J.; Shin, J.; Kim, B.

2013-12-01

The purpose of this paper is to analyze how to revitalize weather insurance. Current state of weather insurance market is firstly described, and the necessity of insurance products and intention to purchase are analyzed based on the recognition survey regarding weather insurance focusing on the weather index insurance. The result of intention to purchase insurance products were examined with Ordered Logit Analysis (OLA), indicating that the amount of damages, the impacts of weather change, and experience of damage and loss have a positive relationship with the intention to purchase weather insurance. In addition, recognition of the amount of acceptable payment for insurance (i.e. willingness to pay) was analyzed for both the group who wants to purchase insurance (Group 1) and the group who does not want to (Group 2). The results demonstrate that Group 1 shows statistically higher significance than Group 2. Based on the results above with the increase in abnormal weather phenomena, we could predict that the amount of damages and losses will be rapidly increasing. The portion of weather insurance market is also expected to consistently develop and expand. This study could be a cornerstone for drawing a plan to revitalize weather insurance.

Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Program First Steps Toward Tribal Weatherization – Human Capacity Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wiita, Joanne

2013-07-30

The Alaska Native Weatherization Training and Jobs Project expanded weatherization services for tribal members’ homes in southeast Alaska while providing weatherization training and on the job training (OJT) for tribal citizens that lead to jobs and most probably careers in weatherization-related occupations. The program resulted in; (a) 80 Alaska Native citizens provided with skills training in five weatherization training units that were delivered in cooperation with University of Alaska Southeast, in accordance with the U.S. Department of Energy Core Competencies for Weatherization Training that prepared participants for employment in three weatherizationrelated occupations: Installer, Crew Chief, and Auditor; (b) 25 paid OJT training opportunities for trainees who successfully completed the training course; and (c) employed trained personnel that have begun to rehab on over 1,000 housing units for weatherization.

Severe fire weather and intensive forest management increase fire severity in a multi-ownership landscape.

Science.gov (United States)

Zald, Harold S J; Dunn, Christopher J

2018-04-26

Many studies have examined how fuels, topography, climate, and fire weather influence fire severity. Less is known about how different forest management practices influence fire severity in multi-owner landscapes, despite costly and controversial suppression of wildfires that do not acknowledge ownership boundaries. In 2013, the Douglas Complex burned over 19,000 ha of Oregon & California Railroad (O&C) lands in Southwestern Oregon, USA. O&C lands are composed of a checkerboard of private industrial and federal forestland (Bureau of Land Management, BLM) with contrasting management objectives, providing a unique experimental landscape to understand how different management practices influence wildfire severity. Leveraging Landsat based estimates of fire severity (Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio, RdNBR) and geospatial data on fire progression, weather, topography, pre-fire forest conditions, and land ownership, we asked (1) what is the relative importance of different variables driving fire severity, and (2) is intensive plantation forestry associated with higher fire severity? Using Random Forest ensemble machine learning, we found daily fire weather was the most important predictor of fire severity, followed by stand age and ownership, followed by topographic features. Estimates of pre-fire forest biomass were not an important predictor of fire severity. Adjusting for all other predictor variables in a general least squares model incorporating spatial autocorrelation, mean predicted RdNBR was higher on private industrial forests (RdNBR 521.85 ± 18.67 [mean ± SE]) vs. BLM forests (398.87 ± 18.23) with a much greater proportion of older forests. Our findings suggest intensive plantation forestry characterized by young forests and spatially homogenized fuels, rather than pre-fire biomass, were significant drivers of wildfire severity. This has implications for perceptions of wildfire risk, shared fire management responsibilities, and developing

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ralf Lauterbach

Full Text Available Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008-2010 in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming.

Convection Weather Detection by General Aviation Pilots with Convectional and Data-Linked Graphical Weather Information Sources

Science.gov (United States)

Chamberlain, James P.; Latorella, Kara A.

2001-01-01

This study compares how well general aviation (GA) pilots detect convective weather in flight with different weather information sources. A flight test was conducted in which GA pilot test subjects were given different in-flight weather information cues and flown toward convective weather of moderate or greater intensity. The test subjects were not actually flying the aircraft, but were given pilot tasks representative of the workload and position awareness requirements of the en route portion of a cross country GA flight. On each flight, one test subject received weather cues typical of a flight in visual meteorological conditions (VMC), another received cues typical of flight in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), and a third received cues typical of flight in IMC but augmented with a graphical weather information system (GWIS). The GWIS provided the subject with near real time data-linked weather products, including a weather radar mosaic superimposed on a moving map with a symbol depicting the aircraft's present position and direction of track. At several points during each flight, the test subjects completed short questionnaires which included items addressing their weather situation awareness and flight decisions. In particular, test subjects were asked to identify the location of the nearest convective cells. After the point of nearest approach to convective weather, the test subjects were asked to draw the location of convective weather on an aeronautical chart, along with the aircraft's present position. This paper reports preliminary results on how accurately test subjects provided with these different weather sources could identify the nearest cell of moderate or greater intensity along their route of flight. Additional flight tests are currently being conducted to complete the data set.

High-resolution regional climate model evaluation using variable-resolution CESM over California

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, X.; Rhoades, A.; Ullrich, P. A.; Zarzycki, C. M.

2015-12-01

Understanding the effect of climate change at regional scales remains a topic of intensive research. Though computational constraints remain a problem, high horizontal resolution is needed to represent topographic forcing, which is a significant driver of local climate variability. Although regional climate models (RCMs) have traditionally been used at these scales, variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) have recently arisen as an alternative for studying regional weather and climate allowing two-way interaction between these domains without the need for nudging. In this study, the recently developed variable-resolution option within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) is assessed for long-term regional climate modeling over California. Our variable-resolution simulations will focus on relatively high resolutions for climate assessment, namely 28km and 14km regional resolution, which are much more typical for dynamically downscaled studies. For comparison with the more widely used RCM method, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model will be used for simulations at 27km and 9km. All simulations use the AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) protocols. The time period is from 1979-01-01 to 2005-12-31 (UTC), and year 1979 was discarded as spin up time. The mean climatology across California's diverse climate zones, including temperature and precipitation, is analyzed and contrasted with the Weather Research and Forcasting (WRF) model (as a traditional RCM), regional reanalysis, gridded observational datasets and uniform high-resolution CESM at 0.25 degree with the finite volume (FV) dynamical core. The results show that variable-resolution CESM is competitive in representing regional climatology on both annual and seasonal time scales. This assessment adds value to the use of VRGCMs for projecting climate change over the coming century and improve our understanding of both past and future regional climate related to fine

Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

Science.gov (United States)

Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

2011-01-01

This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. (Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States)); Witherspoon, M.J. (National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States)); Brown, M.A. (Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States))

1992-05-01

This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy's national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

The scope of the Weatherization Assistance Program: The weatherized population and the resource base

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Power, M.; Eisenberg, J.F.; Michels, E. [Economic Opportunity Research Inst., Washington, DC (United States); Witherspoon, M.J. [National Association for State Community Service Programs, Washington, DC (United States); Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

1992-05-01

This study is one of five parts of the US Department of Energy`s national evaluation of its Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP). It has three major goals: (1) to enumerate the size and sources of investment in low-income weatherization; (2) to provide a count of the number of low-income units weatherized by all weatherization programs and characterized the type and tenure of those homes; and (3) to document the extent to which the DOE/WAP funding has been expanded though use of external resources.

Space Weather- Physics and Effects

CERN Document Server

Bothmer, Volker

2007-01-01

This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

Downscaling the Local Weather Above Glaciers in Complex Topography

Science.gov (United States)

Horak, Johannes; Hofer, Marlis; Gutmann, Ethan; Gohm, Alexander; Rotach, Mathias

2017-04-01

Glaciers have experienced a substantial ice-volume loss during the 20th century. To study their response to climate change, process-based glacier mass-balance models (PBGMs) are employed, which require a faithful representation of the state of the atmosphere above the glacier at high spatial and temporal resolution. Glaciers are usually located in complex topography where weather stations are scarce or not existent at all due to the remoteness of such sites and the associated high cost of maintenance. Furthermore. the effective resolution of global circulation models is too large to adequately capture the local topography and represent local weather, which is prerequisite for atmospheric input used by PBGMs. Dynamical downscaling is a physically consistent but computationally expensive approach to bridge the scale gap between GCM output and input needed by PBGMs, while statistical downscaling is faster but requires measurements for training. Both methods have their merits, however, a computationally frugal approach that does not rely on measurements is desirable, especially for long term studies of glacier response to future climate. In this study the intermediate complexity atmospheric research model (ICAR) is employed (Gutmann et al., 2016). It simplifies the wind field physics by relying on analytical solutions derived with linear theory. ICAR then advects atmospheric quantities within this wind field. This allows for computationally fast downscaling and yields a physically consistent set of atmospheric variables. First results obtained from downscaling air temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity and wind speed to 4 × 4 km2 are presented. Preliminary ICAR is applied for a six month simulation period during five years and evaluated for three domains located in very distinct climates, namely the Southern Alps of New Zealand, the Cordillera Blanca in Peru and the European Alps using ERA Interim reanalysis data (ERAI) as forcing data set. The

Bacterially-mediated weathering of crystalline and amorphous Cu-slags

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potysz, Anna; Grybos, Malgorzata; Kierczak, Jakub; Guibaud, Gilles; Lens, Piet N.L.; Hullebusch, Eric D. van

2016-01-01

Two types of Cu-slags (CS: crystalline massive slag and GS: granulated amorphous slag) exhibiting a different chemical and mineral phase composition were compared with respect to their susceptibility to bacterial weathering using Pseudomonas aeruginosa (n° CIP 105094). Abiotic conditions e.g. sterile growth medium and ultrapure water were used for comparison. The experiments were extended up to 112 days with a systematic liquid phase renewal every 14 days. The results revealed significant release of elements in the bacterially mediated weathering experiments. Concentrations of elements (Si, Fe, Cu, Zn and Pb) in the biotic solutions were increased at least by 20% up to 99% compared to abiotic ones. From 3 to 77% of the leached elements were associated to the fraction >0.22 μm. Scanning electron microscope observations demonstrated greater weathering of mineral phases in biotic experiments than in abiotic ones which is in accordance with the solution chemistry exhibiting higher concentrations of elements leached in biotic set-ups. In the case of CS, glass and sulfides weathering was yet observed in abiotic experiment, whereas partial dissolution of fayalite (Fe_2SiO_4) was solely affected by the presence of bacteria. GS having a higher bulk content of metallic elements was found to be more stable than sulfide-bearing CS, while its (GS) glass matrix was found to weather easier under biotic conditions. - Highlights: • Pseudomonas aeruginosa significantly enhance the release of elements from Cu-slags. • Bacteria and/or associated metabolites assist as biosorbent (e.g. Zn). • Amorphous slag is more susceptible to bio-weathering. • Metal carriers of crystalline slag are prone to dissolution. • Fe-bearing fayalite is altered solely due to the presence of bacteria.

Fabulous Weather Day

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

2007-01-01

Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

Seasonal Forecasting of Fire Weather Based on a New Global Fire Weather Database

Science.gov (United States)

Dowdy, Andrew J.; Field, Robert D.; Spessa, Allan C.

2016-01-01

Seasonal forecasting of fire weather is examined based on a recently produced global database of the Fire Weather Index (FWI) system beginning in 1980. Seasonal average values of the FWI are examined in relation to measures of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The results are used to examine seasonal forecasts of fire weather conditions throughout the world.

Weatherization is a Hit in Michigan: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Michigan demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization Builds on Delaware's Innovative Past: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Delaware demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Clouds cover variability in São Paulo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciana Machado de Moura

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Clouds cover observations are performed by visual inspection which determines the fraction of the sky that is overcast. However, visual observation of clouds cover is a very subjective method, and can vary significantly among observers. This study examined the variability in clouds cover over the city of São Paulo between 1961 and 2013, using clouds cover fraction data observed at the weather station operated by IAG / USP. The study also used two techniques based on visible radiance data observed by the GOES-10 satellite in order to indirectly estimate clouds cover. In order to ensure consistency, the estimated and observed cloudiness was compared with the clearness index, which is the ratio between the total solar radiation observed at the weather station and the incoming solar irradiation at the top of atmosphere. The study found consistency between the various databases that showed similar behavior in all of the seasons of the year. The largest cloudiness values occurred in the summer and lowest in the winter.

Increasing crop diversity mitigates weather variations and improves yield stability.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaudin, Amélie C M; Tolhurst, Tor N; Ker, Alan P; Janovicek, Ken; Tortora, Cristina; Martin, Ralph C; Deen, William

2015-01-01

Cropping sequence diversification provides a systems approach to reduce yield variations and improve resilience to multiple environmental stresses. Yield advantages of more diverse crop rotations and their synergistic effects with reduced tillage are well documented, but few studies have quantified the impact of these management practices on yields and their stability when soil moisture is limiting or in excess. Using yield and weather data obtained from a 31-year long term rotation and tillage trial in Ontario, we tested whether crop rotation diversity is associated with greater yield stability when abnormal weather conditions occur. We used parametric and non-parametric approaches to quantify the impact of rotation diversity (monocrop, 2-crops, 3-crops without or with one or two legume cover crops) and tillage (conventional or reduced tillage) on yield probabilities and the benefits of crop diversity under different soil moisture and temperature scenarios. Although the magnitude of rotation benefits varied with crops, weather patterns and tillage, yield stability significantly increased when corn and soybean were integrated into more diverse rotations. Introducing small grains into short corn-soybean rotation was enough to provide substantial benefits on long-term soybean yields and their stability while the effects on corn were mostly associated with the temporal niche provided by small grains for underseeded red clover or alfalfa. Crop diversification strategies increased the probability of harnessing favorable growing conditions while decreasing the risk of crop failure. In hot and dry years, diversification of corn-soybean rotations and reduced tillage increased yield by 7% and 22% for corn and soybean respectively. Given the additional advantages associated with cropping system diversification, such a strategy provides a more comprehensive approach to lowering yield variability and improving the resilience of cropping systems to multiple environmental

Training Early Career Space Weather Researchers and other Space Weather Professionals at the CISM Space Weather Summer School

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, N. A.; Hughes, W.

2011-12-01

This talk will outline the organization of a summer school designed to introduce young professions to a sub-discipline of geophysics. Through out the 10 year life time of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) the CISM Team has offered a two week summer school that introduces new graduate students and other interested professional to the fundamentals of space weather. The curriculum covers basic concepts in space physics, the hazards of space weather, and the utility of computer models of the space environment. Graduate students attend from both inside and outside CISM, from all the sub-disciplines involved in space weather (solar, heliosphere, geomagnetic, and aeronomy), and from across the nation and around the world. In addition, between 1/4 and 1/3 of the participants each year are professionals involved in space weather in some way, such as: forecasters from NOAA and the Air Force, Air Force satellite program directors, NASA specialists involved in astronaut radiation safety, and representatives from industries affected by space weather. The summer school has adopted modern pedagogy that has been used successfully at the undergraduate level. A typical daily schedule involves three morning lectures followed by an afternoon lab session. During the morning lectures, student interaction is encouraged using "Timeout to Think" questions and peer instruction, along with question cards for students to ask follow up questions. During the afternoon labs students, working in groups of four, answer thought provoking questions using results from simulations and observation data from a variety of source. Through the interactions with each other and the instructors, as well as social interactions during the two weeks, students network and form bonds that will last them through out their careers. We believe that this summer school can be used as a model for summer schools in a wide variety of disciplines.

Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management; Powernext Weather, des indices de reference pour gerer le risque meteo

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

CAUSALITY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIAN STOCK EQUITY RETURNS

OpenAIRE

Svetlana Vlady; Ekrem Tufan; Bahattin Hamarat

2011-01-01

This study investigates causality of weather and its impact on the The S&P/ASX All Australian 200 Index has been selected as a proxy for the Australian capital market. The index consists exclusively of Australian domiciled companies. Following previous research in behaviour finance in the area of environmental psychology, the data set covers temperature, quality temperature, wet bulb temperature, quality wet bulb temperature, humidity, pressure and vapour pressure variables. The data set is a...

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

Strontium stable isotope behaviour accompanying basalt weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Burton, K. W.; Parkinson, I. J.; Gíslason, S. G. R.

2016-12-01

The strontium (Sr) stable isotope composition of rivers is strongly controlled by the balance of carbonate to silicate weathering (Krabbenhöft et al. 2010; Pearce et al. 2015). However, rivers draining silicate catchments possess distinctly heavier Sr stable isotope values than their bedrock compositions, pointing to significant fractionation during weathering. Some have argued for preferential release of heavy Sr from primary phases during chemical weathering, others for the formation of secondary weathering minerals that incorporate light isotopes. This study presents high-precision double-spike Sr stable isotope data for soils, rivers, ground waters and estuarine waters from Iceland, reflecting both natural weathering and societal impacts on those environments. The bedrock in Iceland is dominantly basaltic, d88/86Sr ≈ +0.27, extending to lighter values for rhyolites. Geothermal waters range from basaltic Sr stable compositions to those akin to seawater. Soil pore waters reflect a balance of input from primary mineral weathering, precipitation and litter recycling and removal into secondary phases and vegetation. Rivers and ground waters possess a wide range of d88/86Sr compositions from +0.101 to +0.858. Elemental and isotope data indicate that this fractionation primarily results from the formation or dissolution of secondary zeolite (d88/86Sr ≈ +0.10), but also carbonate (d88/86Sr ≈ +0.22) and sometimes anhydrite (d88/86Sr ≈ -0.73), driving the residual waters to heavier or lighter values, respectively. Estuarine waters largely reflect mixing with seawater, but are also be affected by adsorption onto particulates, again driving water to heavy values. Overall, these data indicate that the stability and nature of secondary weathering phases, exerts a strong control on the Sr stable isotope composition of silicate rivers. [1] Krabbenhöft et al. (2010) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 4097-4109. [2] Pearce et al. (2015) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 157, 125-146.

The impact of winter cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vasconcelos, João; Freire, Elisabete; Almendra, Ricardo

2013-01-01

Mortality due to cardiovascular diseases shows a seasonal trend that can be associated with cold weather. Portugal is the European country with the highest excess winter mortality, but nevertheless, the relationship between cold weather and health is yet to be assessed. The main aim of this study is to identify the contribution of cold weather to cardiovascular diseases within Portugal. Poisson regression analysis based on generalized additive models was applied to estimate the influence of a human-biometeorological index (PET) on daily hospitalizations for myocardial infarction. The main results revealed a negative effect of cold weather on acute myocardial infarctions in Portugal. For every degree fall in PET during winter, there was an increase of up to 2.2% (95% CI = 0.9%; 3.3%) in daily hospital admissions. This paper shows the need for public policies that will help minimize or, indeed, prevent exposure to cold. -- Highlights: ► We model the relationship between daily hospitalizations due to myocardial infarctions and cold weather in Portugal. ► We use Physiological Equivalent temperature (PET) as main explanatory variable. ► We adjust the models to confounding factors such as influenza and air pollution. ► Daily hospitalizations increased up to 2.2% per degree fall of PET during winter. ► Exposure to cold weather has a negative impact on human health in Portugal. -- There is an increase of up to 2.2% in daily hospitalizations due to acute myocardial infarctions per degree fall of thermal index during the winter months in Portugal

Graphical tools for TV weather presentation

Science.gov (United States)

Najman, M.

2010-09-01

Contemporary meteorology and its media presentation faces in my opinion following key tasks: - Delivering the meteorological information to the end user/spectator in understandable and modern fashion, which follows industry standard of video output (HD, 16:9) - Besides weather icons show also the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, climatological data, satellite and radar images, observed weather as actual as possible. - Does not compromise the accuracy of presented data. - Ability to prepare and adjust the weather show according to actual synoptic situtation. - Ability to refocus and completely adjust the weather show to actual extreme weather events. - Ground map resolution weather data presentation need to be at least 20 m/pixel to be able to follow the numerical weather prediction model resolution. - Ability to switch between different numerical weather prediction models each day, each show or even in the middle of one weather show. - The graphical weather software need to be flexible and fast. The graphical changes nee to be implementable and airable within minutes before the show or even live. These tasks are so demanding and the usual original approach of custom graphics could not deal with it. It was not able to change the show every day, the shows were static and identical day after day. To change the content of the weather show daily was costly and most of the time impossible with the usual approach. The development in this area is fast though and there are several different options for weather predicting organisations such as national meteorological offices and private meteorological companies to solve this problem. What are the ways to solve it? What are the limitations and advantages of contemporary graphical tools for meteorologists? All these questions will be answered.

Road weather information for travelers : improving road weather messages and dissemination methods.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Road Weather Management Program (RWMP) recently completed a study titled Human Factors Analysis of Road Weather Advisory and Control Information (Publication No. FHWAJPO- 10-053). The goal of the study was to...

National Convective Weather Diagnostic

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

Natural Weathering Exposure Station

Data.gov (United States)

Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

Space weather and power grids: findings and outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Andersson, Emmelie; Murtagh, William; Mitchison, Neil

2014-05-01

in industry against moderate space weather, the vulnerability of the power grid with respect to Carrington-type events is less conclusive and needs to be assessed. • The assessment of space-weather impact on society needs to consider possible interdependencies between critical infrastructures. These interdependencies are not routinely assessed. • Effective risk communication is required to bridge the gap between science and policy and to convey the significance of scientific results to decision makers. • Emergency-response planning for a severe space-weather event needs to consider the full range of potential impacts on critical infrastructure. • For a severe geomagnetic storm inter-institutional and probably international emergency planning efforts are required as response capabilities of individual countries might be overloaded. • In the USA work is in progress to augment the existing regulatory requirements for power-grid operations by introducing new standards to better meet the challenges posed by space-weather risk.

Weather conditions influencing phosphorus concentration in the growing period in the large shallow Lake Peipsi (Estonia/Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Olga Tammeorg

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of water temperature (T, water level (L, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR, and wind speed (V on the total phosphorus concentration (TP in shallow eutrophic lake Peipsi, the fourth largest lake in Europe, was studied. We used a long-term dataset (1985-2010 of TP concentrations and weather factors. A Thin Plate Spline (TPS model was used to predict TP by year, by day of the year, and by geographical coordinates. Deviations between observed and predicted TP values (residuals, or TP anomalies were related to the weather variables to clarify how the weather anomalies in a year might correlate with the observed fluctuations in TP dynamics. Notable seasonal variations in TP, typical for many shallow lake systems, were found: TP was two to three times higher during late summer-early autumn than during winter. Patterns of TP variability were well predicted by using geographical coordinates, year and day of the year (R2=0.69; P<0.0001. However, TP anomalies were ascribed to the effects of T, L, PAR, and V, which were proved to play a significant additional role in TP dynamics. Moreover, L had consistently negative effects over the year, whereas the effects of T and PAR on TP change were seen to be dependent on the season. TP anomalies in lake Peipsi were most sensitive to wind anomalies. V was associated with frequent switches between increasing and decreasing TP values, though it appeared mainly as a negative driver of TP anomalies in the season prior to the 180th day, and as a positive driver in the subsequent season.

Weather impacts on leisure activities in Halifax, Nova Scotia

Science.gov (United States)

Spinney, Jamie E. L.; Millward, Hugh

2011-03-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of daily atmospheric weather conditions on daily leisure activity engagement, with a focus on physically active leisure. The methods capitalize on time diary data that were collected in Halifax, Nova Scotia to calculate objective measures of leisure activity engagement. Daily meteorological data from Environment Canada and daily sunrise and sunset times from the National Research Council of Canada are used to develop objective measures of the natural atmospheric environment. The time diary data were merged with the meteorological data in order to quantify the statistical association between daily weather conditions and the type, participation rate, frequency, and duration of leisure activity engagement. The results indicate that inclement and uncomfortable weather conditions, especially relating to thermal comfort and mechanical comfort, pose barriers to physically active leisure engagement, while promoting sedentary and home-based leisure activities. Overall, daily weather conditions exhibit modest, but significant, effects on leisure activity engagement; the strongest associations being for outdoor active sports and outdoor active leisure time budgets. In conclusion, weather conditions influence the type, participation rate, frequency, and duration of leisure activity engagement, which is an important consideration for health-promotion programming.

Ca isotopes, chemical weathering, and geomorphic controls on long-term climate

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, J.; Jacobson, A. D.; Holmden, C. E.; Craw, D.

2009-12-01

Calcium isotope geochemistry (δ44Ca) offers a unique opportunity to directly quantify proportions of riverine Ca originating from silicate versus carbonate weathering, which is essential for understanding how geomorphic processes affecting landscape evolution, such as tectonic uplift and glaciation, influence the long-term cycling of atmospheric CO2. We measured the elemental and δ44Ca chemistry of river and rock samples from the New Zealand Southern Alps. In combination with our geochemical data, we used runoff and suspended sediment fluxes to elucidate relationships between chemical weathering, mechanical erosion, and long-term climate. The S. Alps have uniform bedrock chemistry but significant tectonic and climatic gradients. West of the main topographic divide, watersheds drain schist and experience high runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. East of the main divide, watersheds drain greywacke or schist and experience lower runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. Glaciated watersheds with high erosion rates are present throughout the mountain range. Both schist and greywacke contain up to 3% metamorphic and hydrothermal calcite. Waters exhibit two-component mixing between calcite and silicate end-members when plotted as δ44Ca versus Ca/Sr. Scatter about the mixing curve is generally smaller than the analytical uncertainty of the measurements and likely reflects variability of the end-member compositions rather than fractionation. We used the mixing relationships to calculate percentages of Ca from silicate weathering. Rivers draining greywacke average 27.6% of Ca from silicate weathering with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 41.8 and 19.5%, respectively. Rivers draining schist average 9.8% with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 17.7 and 3.9%, respectively. Although Ca fluxes are larger west of the main divide where erosion and runoff are higher, the percentage of Ca from silicate weathering is smaller. Hence, long-term atmospheric CO2

Integrating K-means Clustering with Kernel Density Estimation for the Development of a Conditional Weather Generation Downscaling Model

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y.; Ho, C.; Chang, L.

2011-12-01

In previous decades, the climate change caused by global warming increases the occurrence frequency of extreme hydrological events. Water supply shortages caused by extreme events create great challenges for water resource management. To evaluate future climate variations, general circulation models (GCMs) are the most wildly known tools which shows possible weather conditions under pre-defined CO2 emission scenarios announced by IPCC. Because the study area of GCMs is the entire earth, the grid sizes of GCMs are much larger than the basin scale. To overcome the gap, a statistic downscaling technique can transform the regional scale weather factors into basin scale precipitations. The statistic downscaling technique can be divided into three categories include transfer function, weather generator and weather type. The first two categories describe the relationships between the weather factors and precipitations respectively based on deterministic algorithms, such as linear or nonlinear regression and ANN, and stochastic approaches, such as Markov chain theory and statistical distributions. In the weather type, the method has ability to cluster weather factors, which are high dimensional and continuous variables, into weather types, which are limited number of discrete states. In this study, the proposed downscaling model integrates the weather type, using the K-means clustering algorithm, and the weather generator, using the kernel density estimation. The study area is Shihmen basin in northern of Taiwan. In this study, the research process contains two steps, a calibration step and a synthesis step. Three sub-steps were used in the calibration step. First, weather factors, such as pressures, humidities and wind speeds, obtained from NCEP and the precipitations observed from rainfall stations were collected for downscaling. Second, the K-means clustering grouped the weather factors into four weather types. Third, the Markov chain transition matrixes and the

Quantifying chemical weathering rates along a precipitation gradient on Basse-Terre Island, French Guadeloupe: new insight from U-series isotopes in weathering rinds

Science.gov (United States)

Engel, Jacqueline M.; May, Linda; Sak, Peter B.; Gaillardet, Jerome; Ren, Minghua; Engle, Mark A.; Brantley, Susan L.

2016-01-01

Inside soil and saprolite, rock fragments can form weathering clasts (alteration rinds surrounding an unweathered core) and these weathering rinds provide an excellent field system for investigating the initiation of weathering and long term weathering rates. Recently, uranium-series (U-series) disequilibria have shown great potential for determining rind formation rates and quantifying factors controlling weathering advance rates in weathering rinds. To further investigate whether the U-series isotope technique can document differences in long term weathering rates as a function of precipitation, we conducted a new weathering rind study on tropical volcanic Basse-Terre Island in the Lesser Antilles Archipelago. In this study, for the first time we characterized weathering reactions and quantified weathering advance rates in multiple weathering rinds across a steep precipitation gradient. Electron microprobe (EMP) point measurements, bulk major element contents, and U-series isotope compositions were determined in two weathering clasts from the Deshaies watershed with mean annual precipitation (MAP) = 1800 mm and temperature (MAT) = 23 °C. On these clasts, five core-rind transects were measured for locations with different curvature (high, medium, and low) of the rind-core boundary. Results reveal that during rind formation the fraction of elemental loss decreases in the order: Ca ≈ Na > K ≈ Mg > Si ≈ Al > Zr ≈ Ti ≈ Fe. Such observations are consistent with the sequence of reactions after the initiation of weathering: specifically, glass matrix and primary minerals (plagioclase, pyroxene) weather to produce Fe oxyhydroxides, gibbsite and minor kaolinite.Uranium shows addition profiles in the rind due to the infiltration of U-containing soil pore water into the rind as dissolved U phases. U is then incorporated into the rind as Fe-Al oxides precipitate. Such processes lead to significant U-series isotope disequilibria in the rinds

Impacts of extreme weather events and climate variability on carbon exchanges in an age-sequence of managed temperate pine forests from 2003 to 201

Science.gov (United States)

Arain, M. A.

2017-12-01

North American temperate forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and regional water resources. A large portion of these forests has traditionally been managed for timber production and other uses. The response of these forests, which are in different stages of development, to extreme weather events such as drought and heat stresses, climate variability and management regimes is not fully understood. In this study, eddy covariance flux measurements in an age sequence (77-, 42-, and 14-years old as of 2016) of white pine (Pinus strobus L.) plantation forests in southern Ontario, Canada are examined to determine the impact of heat and drought stresses and climate variability over a 14 year period (2003 to 2016). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) values were 195 ± 87, 512 ±161 and 103 ± 103 g C m-2 year-1 in 77-, 42- and 14-year-old forests respectively, over the study period. The youngest forest became a net carbon sink in the fifth year of its growth. Air temperature was a dominant control on carbon fluxes and heat stress reduced photosynthesis much more as compared to ecosystem respiration in the growing season. A large decrease in annual NEP was observed during years experiencing heat waves. Drought stress had the strongest impact on the middle age forest which had the largest carbon sink and water demand. In contrast, young forest was more sensitive to heat stress, than drought. Severity of heat and drought stress impacts was highly dependent on the timing of these events. Simultaneous occurrence of heat and drought stress in the early growing season such as in 2012 and 2016 had a drastic negative impact on carbon balance in these forests due to plant-soil-atmosphere feedbacks. Future research should consider the timing of the extreme events, the stage of forest development and effects of extreme events on component fluxes. This research helps to assess the vulnerability of managed forests and their ecological and hydrological

Surface Weather Observations Hourly

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

Land Surface Weather Observations

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

Machine learning and linear regression models to predict catchment-level base cation weathering rates across the southern Appalachian Mountain region, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Nicholas A. Povak; Paul F. Hessburg; Todd C. McDonnell; Keith M. Reynolds; Timothy J. Sullivan; R. Brion Salter; Bernard J. Crosby

2014-01-01

Accurate estimates of soil mineral weathering are required for regional critical load (CL) modeling to identify ecosystems at risk of the deleterious effects from acidification. Within a correlative modeling framework, we used modeled catchment-level base cation weathering (BCw) as the response variable to identify key environmental correlates and predict a continuous...

Phase-dependent space weathering effects and spectroscopic identification of retained helium in a lunar soil grain

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, K. D.; Stroud, R. M.

2018-03-01

The solar wind is an important driver of space weathering on airless bodies. Over time, solar wind exposure alters the physical, chemical, and optical properties of exposed materials and can also impart a significant amount of helium into the surfaces of these bodies. However, common materials on the surface of the Moon, such as glass, crystalline silicates, and oxides, have highly variable responses to solar wind irradiation. We used scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) with electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) to examine the morphology and chemistry of a single grain of lunar soil that includes silicate glass, chromite and ilmenite, all present and exposed along the same surface. The exposure of the silicate glass and oxides to the same space weathering conditions allows for direct comparisons of the responses of natural materials to the complex lunar surface environment. The silicate glass shows minimal effects of solar wind irradiation, whereas both the chromite and ilmenite exhibit defect-rich rims that currently contain trapped helium. Only the weathered rim in ilmenite is rich in nanophase metallic iron (npFe0) and larger vesicles that retain helium at a range of internal pressures. The multiple exposed surfaces of the single grain of ilmenite demonstrate strong crystallographic controls of planar defects and non-spherical npFe0. The direct spectroscopic identification of helium in the vesicles and planar defects in the oxides provides additional evidence of the central role of solar wind irradiation in the formation of some common space weathering features.

Development of a regional ensemble prediction method for probabilistic weather prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nohara, Daisuke; Tamura, Hidetoshi; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2015-01-01

A regional ensemble prediction method has been developed to provide probabilistic weather prediction using a numerical weather prediction model. To obtain consistent perturbations with the synoptic weather pattern, both of initial and lateral boundary perturbations were given by differences between control and ensemble member of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week ensemble forecast. The method provides a multiple ensemble member with a horizontal resolution of 15 km for 48-hour based on a downscaling of the JMA's operational global forecast accompanied with the perturbations. The ensemble prediction was examined in the case of heavy snow fall event in Kanto area on January 14, 2013. The results showed that the predictions represent different features of high-resolution spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation affected by intensity and location of extra-tropical cyclone in each ensemble member. Although the ensemble prediction has model bias of mean values and variances in some variables such as wind speed and solar radiation, the ensemble prediction has a potential to append a probabilistic information to a deterministic prediction. (author)

Variability in anatomical features of human clavicle: Its forensic anthropological and clinical significance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jagmahender Singh Sehrawat

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Bones can reflect the basic framework of human body and may provide valuable information about the biological identity of the deceased. They, often, survive the morphological alterations, taphonomic destructions, decay/mutilation and decomposition insults. In-depth knowledge of variations in clavicular shape, size and its dimensions is very important from both clinical (fixation of clavicular fractures using external or inter-medullary devices, designing orthopedic fixation devices as well as forensic anthropological perspectives. Human clavicle is the most frequently fractured bone of human skeleton, possessing high degree of variability in its anatomical, biomechanical and morphological features. Extended period of skeletal growth (up to third decade in clavicle imparts it an additional advantage for forensic identification purposes. In present study, five categories of clavicular features like lengths, diameters, angles, indices and robustness were examined to explore the suitability of collarbone for forensic and clinical purposes. For this purpose, 263 pairs of adult clavicles (195 Males and 68 Females were collected from autopsied cadavers and were studied for 13 anatomical features. Gender and occupational affiliations of cadavers were found to have significant influences on anatomical dimensions of their clavicles. Product index, weight and circumference of collarbone were found the best univariate variables, discriminating sex of more than 80% individuals. The best multivariate Function-I (DF: -17.315 + 0.054 CL-L+0.196 CC-R+0.184 DM-L could identify sex and occupation of 89.4% (89.2% Male and 89.7% Female and 65.4% individuals, respectively. All clavicular variables were found bilaterally asymmetric; left clavicles being significantly longer in length, lighter in weight, smooth in texture and less curved than the right side bones. Among non-metric traits, sub-clavian groove, nutrient foramina and ‘type’ of clavicle exhibited

Aerosol climatology and planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by synoptic weather types

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Collaud Coen

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration and trace gases (CO, NO_x, SO₂ measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l. have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Schüepp synoptic weather type of the Alps (SYNALP classification from the Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the whole Swiss region. The seasonal contribution of each synoptic weather type to the aerosol concentration was deduced from the aerosol annual cycles while the planetary boundary layer (PBL influence was estimated by means of the diurnal cycles. Since aerosols are scavenged by precipitation, the diurnal cycle of the CO concentration was also used to identify polluted air masses. SO₂ and NO_x concentrations were used as precursor tracers for new particle formation and growth, respectively. The aerosol optical parameters and number concentration show elevated loadings during advective weather types during the December–March period and for the convective anticyclonic and convective indifferent weather types during the April–September period. This study confirms the consensus view that the JFJ is mainly influenced by the free troposphere during winter and by injection of air parcels from the PBL during summer. A more detailed picture is, however, drawn where the JFJ is completely influenced by free tropospheric air masses in winter during advective weather types and largely influenced by the PBL also during the night in summer during the subsidence weather type. Between these two extreme situations, the PBL influence at the JFJ depends on both the time of year and the synoptic weather type. The fraction of PBL air transported to the JFJ was estimated by the relative increase of the specific humidity and CO.

The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables.

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Wenbiao; Mengersen, Kerrie; Fu, Shiu-Yun; Tong, Shilu

2010-07-01

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31 degrees C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9-47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk-management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

Acidic weathering of carbonate building stones: experimental assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryszard Kryza

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Three types of carbonate rocks, travertine, limestone and marble have been studied to determine their selected technical parameters (water absorption, resistance to salt crystallization damage and reaction to experimentally modelled acid rain weathering imitating the polluted urban atmospheric conditions. The acidic agents present in natural acid rain precipitation, H2SO4, HCl, HNO3, CH3COOH and mixture of all the acids, “Acid mix”, were tested. The initial stages of acid weathering involve, apart from chemical dissolution, particularly intense physical detachment of rock particles (granular disintegration significantly contributing to the total mass loss. Travertine was found to be most prone to salt crystallization damage and to acid weathering, and these features should be taken into account especially in external architectural usage of this stone in cold climate conditions and polluted urban atmosphere.

Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

2017-01-01

Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology

Sun, weather, and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

1985-01-01

The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

"Share weather" : Design and evaluation of a new concept for sharing weather information

OpenAIRE

Elevant, Katarina

2013-01-01

Already centuries ago, humans had observed the weather in their everyday lives, seeking ways to understand, comprehend, and predict it. Until the present day, weather has had tremendous impacts on our lives and with climate change human civilizations as well. With new media technologies weather constitutes a part of the information services used by many residents of modern cities, people and businesses worldwide. The rise of Web 2.0, a cyberspace where individuals may connect and interact und...

Space Weather in Operation

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

Science.gov (United States)

Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

Spatial variability in mycorrhizal hyphae and nutrient and water availability in a soil-weathered bedrock profile

Science.gov (United States)

L.M. Egerton-Warburton; R.C. Graham; K.R. Hubbert

2003-01-01

We documented the spatial distribution, abundance and molecular diversity of mycorrhizal hyphae and physical and chemical properties of soil-weathered bedrock in a chaparral community that experiences seasonal drought. Because plants in this community were known to rely on bedrock-stored water during the summer, the data were used to evaluate the potential role of...

Who is protecting tourists in New Zealand from severe weather hazards?: an exploration of the role of locus of responsibility in protective behaviour decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jeuring, Jelmer; Becken, Susanne

2011-01-01

Much of New Zealand's tourism industry is focused on 'the outdoors', capitalising on its natural environment and attractions. However, this 'product' makes New Zealand tourism vulnerable to environmental variability and disturbances, including the weather. As a consequence, New Zealand weather has a

Space Weather opportunities from the Swarm mission including near real time applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stolle, Claudia; Floberghagen, Rune; Luehr, Hermann

2013-01-01

Sophisticated space weather monitoring aims at nowcasting and predicting solar-terrestrial interactions because their effects on the ionosphere and upper atmosphere may seriously impact advanced technology. Operating alert infrastructures rely heavily on ground-based measurements and satellite...... these products in timely manner will add significant value in monitoring present space weather and helping to predict the evolution of several magnetic and ionospheric events. Swarm will be a demonstrator mission for the valuable application of LEO satellite observations for space weather monitoring tools....

The relationship between weather and caribou productivity for the La-Poile Caribou Herd, Newfoundland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven H. Ferguson

1991-10-01

Full Text Available To describe the relationship between weather and caribou (Rangifer tarandus productivity, we compared weather variables (snow on ground, winter temperature and measures of growing season with measures of productivity (calves seen by hunters, calves and yearlings in the harvest and percent calves and yearlings and pregnancy rate for caribou classified during fall and spring surveys for the LaPoile Caribou Herd in southwestern Newfoundland. Hunter statistics reliably estimated changes in population demography. Percent calves seen by hunters was correlated with calves/100 females classified in fall. Weather may have influenced productivity for the LaPoile Caribou Herd in Newfoundland. Colder winter temperatures were associated with fewer calves the next fall and pregnancy rates and yearlings/100 females in the spring were negatively correlated with snow on ground the previous winter. These relationships appear to be density related.

Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William J Platt

Full Text Available Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature. We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009 data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009. Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with

Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

2015-01-01

Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

Influence of weather and climate on subjective symptom intensity in atopic eczema

Science.gov (United States)

Vocks, E.; Busch, R.; Fröhlich, C.; Borelli, S.; Mayer, H.; Ring, J.

The frequent clinical observation that the course of atopic eczema, a skin disease involving a disturbed cutaneous barrier function, is influenced by climate and weather motivated us to analyse these relationships biometrically. In the Swiss high-mountain area of Davos the intensity of itching experienced by patients with atopic eczema was evaluated and compared to 15 single meteorological variables recorded daily during an entire 7-year observation period. By means of univariate analyses and multiple regressions, itch intensity was found to be correlated with some meteorological variables. A clear-cut inverse correlation exists with air temperature (coefficient of correlation: -0.235, P<0.001), but the effects of water vapour pressure, air pressure and hours of sunshine are less pronounced. The results show that itching in atopic eczema is significantly dependent on meteorological conditions. The data suggest that, in patients with atopic eczema, a certain range of thermo-hygric atmospheric conditions with a balance of heat and water loss on the skin surface is essential for the skin to feel comfortable.

Taking Weatherization to New Heights in Colorado: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Colorado demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

Weatherization Sails on Maryland's Legacy of Innovation: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

Maryland demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Weatherization Plays a Starring Role in Mississippi: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D& R International

2001-10-10

Mississippi demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.

A 17-year Record of Meteorological Observations Across the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in Southern Patagonia, Chile, Related to Synoptic Weather Types and Climate Modes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephanie S. Weidemann

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The network of long-term meteorological observations in Southernmost Patagonia is still sparse but crucial to improve our understanding of climatic variability, in particular in the more elevated and partially glaciated Southernmost Andes. Here we present a unique 17-year meteorological record (2000–2016 of four automatic weather stations (AWS across the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap (53°S in the Southernmost Andes (Chile and the conventional weather station Jorge Schythe of the Instituto de la Patagonia in Punta Arenas for comparison. We revisit the relationship between in situ observations and large-scale climate models as well as mesoscale weather patterns. For this purpose, a 37-year record of ERA Interim Reanalysis data has been used to compute a weather type classification based on a hierarchical correlation-based leader algorithm. The orographic perturbation on the predominantly westerly airflow determines the hydroclimatic response across the mountain range, leading to significant west-east gradients of precipitation, air temperature and humidity. Annual precipitation sums heavily drop within only tens of kilometers from ~7,500 mm a−1 to less than 800 mm a−1. The occurrence of high precipitation events of up to 620 mm in 5 days and wet spells of up to 61 consecutive days underscore the year-around wet conditions in the Southernmost Andes. Given the strong link between large-scale circulation and orographically controlled precipitation, the synoptic-scale weather conditions largely determine the precipitation and temperature variability on all time scales. Major synoptic weather types with distinct low-pressure cells in the Weddell Sea or Bellingshausen Sea, causing a prevailing southwesterly, northwesterly or westerly airflow, determine the weather conditions in Southernmost Patagonia during 68% of the year. At Gran Campo Nevado, more than 80% of extreme precipitation events occur during the persistence of these weather types. The

There's no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothing: climate, weather and active school transportation in Toronto, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitra, Raktim; Faulkner, Guy

2012-07-10

Climatic conditions may enable or deter active school transportation in many North American cities, but the topic remains largely overlooked in the existing literature. This study explores the effect of seasonal climate (i.e., fall versus winter) and weekly weather conditions (i.e., temperature, precipitation) on active travelling to school across different built and policy environments. Home-to-school trips by 11-12-year-old children in the City of Toronto were examined using data from the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey. Binomial logistic regressions were estimated to explore the correlates of the choice of active (i.e., walking) versus non-active (i.e., private automobile, transit and school bus) mode for school trips. Climate and weather-related variables were not associated with choice of school travel mode. Children living within the sidewalk snow-plough zone (i.e., in the inner-suburban neighbourhoods) were less likely to walk to school than children living outside of the zone (i.e., in the inner-city neighbourhoods). Given that seasonality and short-term weather conditions appear not to limit active school transportation in general, built environment interventions designed to facilitate active travel could have benefits that spill over across the entire year rather than being limited to a particular season. Educational campaigns with strategies for making the trip fun and ensuring that the appropriate clothing choices are made are also warranted in complementing built environment modifications.

Observational study of atmospheric surface layer and coastal weather in northern Qatar

Science.gov (United States)

Samanta, Dhrubajyoti; Sadr, Reza

2016-04-01

Atmospheric surface layer is the interaction medium between atmosphere and Earth's surface. Better understanding of its turbulence nature is essential in characterizing the local weather, climate variability and modeling of turbulent exchange processes. The importance of Middle East region, with its unique geographical, economical and weather condition is well recognized. However, high quality micrometeorological observational studies are rare in this region. Here we show experimental results from micrometeorological observations from an experimental site in the coastal region of Qatar during August-December 2015. Measurements of winds are obtained from three sonic anemometers installed on a 9 m tower placed at Al Ghariyah beach in northern Qatar (26.08 °N, 51.36 °E). Different surface layer characteristics is analyzed and compared with earlier studies in equivalent weather conditions. Monthly statistics of wind speed, wind direction, temperature, humidity and heat index are made from concurrent observations from sonic anemometer and weather station to explore variations with surface layer characteristics. The results also highlights potential impact of sea breeze circulation on local weather and atmospheric turbulence. The observed daily maximum temperature and heat index during morning period may be related to sea breeze circulations. Along with the operational micrometeorological observation system, a camera system and ultrasonic wave measurement system are installed recently in the site to study coastline development and nearshore wave dynamics. Overall, the complete observational set up is going to provide new insights about nearshore wind dynamics and wind-wave interaction in Qatar.

Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jakowski

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems. SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

Operational space weather service for GNSS precise positioning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Jakowski

2005-11-01

Full Text Available The ionospheric plasma can significantly influence the propagation of radio waves and the ionospheric disturbances are capable of causing range errors, rapid phase and amplitude fluctuations (radio scintillations of satellite signals that may lead to degradation of the system performance, its accuracy and reliability. The cause of such disturbances should be sought in the processes originating in the Sun. Numerous studies on these phenomena have been already carried out at a broad international level, in order to measure/estimate these space weather induced effects, to forecast them, and to understand and mitigate their impact on present-day technological systems.

SWIPPA (Space Weather Impact on Precise Positioning Applications is a pilot project jointly supported by the German Aerospace Centre (DLR and the European Space Agency (ESA. The project aims at establishing, operating, and evaluating a specific space-weather monitoring service that can possibly lead to improving current positioning applications based on Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS. This space weather service provides GNSS users with essential expert information delivered in the form of several products - maps of TEC values, TEC spatial and temporal gradients, alerts for ongoing/oncoming ionosphere disturbances, etc.

Principal Component Analysis to Explore Climatic Variability and Dengue Outbreak in Lahore

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Syed Afrozuddin Ahmed

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Various studies have reported that global warming causes unstable climate and many serious impact to physical environment and public health. The increasing incidence of dengue incidence is now a priority health issue and become a health burden of Pakistan.  In this study it has been investigated that spatial pattern of environment causes the emergence or increasing rate of dengue fever incidence that effects the population and its health. Principal component analysis is performed for the purpose of finding if there is/are any general environmental factor/structure which could be affected in the emergence of dengue fever cases in Pakistani climate. Principal component is applied to find structure in data for all four periods i.e. 1980 to 2012, 1980 to 1995 and 1996 to 2012.  The first three PCs for the period (1980-2012, 1980-1994, 1995-2012 are almost the same and it represent hot and windy weather. The PC1s of all dengue periods are different to each other. PC2 for all period are same and it is wetness in weather. PC3s are different and it is the combination of wetness and windy weather. PC4s for all period show humid but no rain in weather. For climatic variable only minimum temperature and maximum temperature are significantly correlated with daily dengue cases.  PC1, PC3 and PC4 are highly significantly correlated with daily dengue cases 

Weatherization Savings Takes Root in New Mexico: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

New Mexico demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

Probabilistic forecasting of shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides using real-time numerical weather predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Schmidt

2008-04-01

Full Text Available A project established at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA in New Zealand is aimed at developing a prototype of a real-time landslide forecasting system. The objective is to predict temporal changes in landslide probability for shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, based on quantitative weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models. Global weather forecasts from the United Kingdom Met Office (MO Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP are coupled with a regional data assimilating NWP model (New Zealand Limited Area Model, NZLAM to forecast atmospheric variables such as precipitation and temperature up to 48 h ahead for all of New Zealand. The weather forecasts are fed into a hydrologic model to predict development of soil moisture and groundwater levels. The forecasted catchment-scale patterns in soil moisture and soil saturation are then downscaled using topographic indices to predict soil moisture status at the local scale, and an infinite slope stability model is applied to determine the triggering soil water threshold at a local scale. The model uses uncertainty of soil parameters to produce probabilistic forecasts of spatio-temporal landslide occurrence 48~h ahead. The system was evaluated for a damaging landslide event in New Zealand. Comparison with landslide densities estimated from satellite imagery resulted in hit rates of 70–90%.

Role of Winter Weather Conditions and Slipperiness on Tourists’ Accidents in Finland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Élise Lépy

2016-08-01

Full Text Available (1 Background: In Finland, slippery snowy or icy ground surface conditions can be quite hazardous to human health during wintertime. We focused on the impacts of the variability in weather conditions on tourists’ health via documented accidents during the winter season in the Sotkamo area. We attempted to estimate the slipping hazard in a specific context of space and time focusing on the weather and other possible parameters, responsible for fluctuations in the numbers of injuries/accidents; (2 Methods: We used statistical distributions with graphical illustrations to examine the distribution of visits to Kainuu Hospital by non-local patients and their characteristics/causes; graphs to illustrate the distribution of the different characteristics of weather conditions; questionnaires and interviews conducted among health care and safety personnel in Sotkamo and Kuusamo; (3 Results: There was a clear seasonal distribution in the numbers and types of extremity injuries of non-local patients. While the risk of slipping is emphasized, other factors leading to injuries are evaluated; and (4 Conclusions: The study highlighted the clear role of wintery weather conditions as a cause of extremity injuries even though other aspects must also be considered. Future scenarios, challenges and adaptive strategies are also discussed from the viewpoint of climate change.

Advances in Optimizing Weather Driven Electric Power Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Clack, C.; MacDonald, A. E.; Alexander, A.; Dunbar, A. D.; Xie, Y.; Wilczak, J. M.

2014-12-01

The importance of weather-driven renewable energies for the United States (and global) energy portfolio is growing. The main perceived problems with weather-driven renewable energies are their intermittent nature, low power density, and high costs. The National Energy with Weather System Simulator (NEWS) is a mathematical optimization tool that allows the construction of weather-driven energy sources that will work in harmony with the needs of the system. For example, it will match the electric load, reduce variability, decrease costs, and abate carbon emissions. One important test run included existing US carbon-free power sources, natural gas power when needed, and a High Voltage Direct Current power transmission network. This study shows that the costs and carbon emissions from an optimally designed national system decrease with geographic size. It shows that with achievable estimates of wind and solar generation costs, that the US could decrease its carbon emissions by up to 80% by the early 2030s, without an increase in electric costs. The key requirement would be a 48 state network of HVDC transmission, creating a national market for electricity not possible in the current AC grid. These results were found without the need for storage. Further, we tested the effect of changing natural gas fuel prices on the optimal configuration of the national electric power system. Another test that was carried out was an extension to global regions. The extension study shows that the same properties found in the US study extend to the most populous regions of the planet. The extra test is a simplified version of the US study, and is where much more research can be carried out. We compare our results to other model results.

Significant Variables in the Combustion Process of Natural Gas

OpenAIRE

Villaflor, Gloria; Morales, Graciela V; Velasco, Jorge

2008-01-01

Se determinan las variables significativas del proceso de combustión de gas natural, aquellas más sensibles para producir cambios importantes desde punto de vista económico y medioambiental. Con este fin se realiza la simulación del proceso de combustión de gas natural, utilizando el simulador comercial HYSYS. Se determina que las variables de operación más sensibles para este proceso son la temperatura del aire, la temperatura de los gases de combustión y el exceso de aire usado en la combus...

Multiple Weather Factors Affect Apparent Survival of European Passerine Birds

Science.gov (United States)

Salewski, Volker; Hochachka, Wesley M.; Fiedler, Wolfgang

2013-01-01

Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and the potential for

AWE: Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Spirkovska, Lilly; Lodha, Suresh K.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Weather is one of the major causes of aviation accidents. General aviation (GA) flights account for 92% of all the aviation accidents, In spite of all the official and unofficial sources of weather visualization tools available to pilots, there is an urgent need for visualizing several weather related data tailored for general aviation pilots. Our system, Aviation Weather Data Visualization Environment AWE), presents graphical displays of meteorological observations, terminal area forecasts, and winds aloft forecasts onto a cartographic grid specific to the pilot's area of interest. Decisions regarding the graphical display and design are made based on careful consideration of user needs. Integral visual display of these elements of weather reports is designed for the use of GA pilots as a weather briefing and route selection tool. AWE provides linking of the weather information to the flight's path and schedule. The pilot can interact with the system to obtain aviation-specific weather for the entire area or for his specific route to explore what-if scenarios and make "go/no-go" decisions. The system, as evaluated by some pilots at NASA Ames Research Center, was found to be useful.

On the Nature of People's Reaction to Space Weather and Meteorological Weather Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Khabarova, O. V.; Dimitrova, S.

2009-12-01

Our environment includes many natural and artificial agents affecting any person on the Earth in one way or other. This work is focused on two of them - weather and space weather, which are permanently effective. Their cumulative effect is proved by means of the modeling. It is shown that combination of geomagnetic and solar indices and weather strength parameter (which includes six main meteorological parameters) correlates with health state significantly better (up to R=0.7), than separate environmental parameters do. The typical shape of any health characteristics' time-series during human body reaction to any negative impact represents a curve, well-known in medicine as a General Adaptation Syndrome curve by Hans Selye. We demonstrate this on the base of blood pressure time-series and acupunctural experiment data, averaged by group. The first stage of adaptive stress-reaction (resistance to stress) is sometimes observed 1-2 days before geomagnetic storm onset. The effect of "outstripping reaction to magnetic storm", named Tchizhevsky- Velkhover effect, had been known for many years, but its explanation was obtained recently due to the consideration of the near-Earth space plasma processes. It was shown that lowfrequency variations of the solar wind density on a background of the density growth can stimulate the development of the geomagnetic filed (GMF) variations of the wide frequency range. These variations seem to have "bioeffective frequencies", resonant with own frequencies of body organs and systems. The mechanism of human body reaction is supposed to be a parametrical resonance in low-frequency range (which is determined by the resonance in large-scale organs and systems) and a simple forced resonance in GHz-range of variations (the resonance of micro-objects in the organism such as DNA, cell membranes, blood ions etc.) Given examples of mass-reaction of the objects to ULF-range GMF variations during quiet space weather time prove this hypothesis.

Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2010-06-01

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

2015-12-01

The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

Science.gov (United States)

Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

2005-01-01

Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

Anthropogenically enhanced chemical weathering and carbon evasion in the Yangtze Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Jingheng; Wang, Fushun; Vogt, Rolf David; Zhang, Yuhang; Liu, Cong-Qiang

2015-01-01

Chemical weathering is a fundamental geochemical process regulating the atmosphere-land-ocean fluxes and earth’s climate. It is under natural conditions driven primarily by weak carbonic acid that originates from atmosphere CO2 or soil respiration. Chemical weathering is therefore assumed as positively coupled with its CO2 consumption in contemporary geochemistry. Strong acids (i.e. sulfuric- and nitric acid) from anthropogenic sources have been found to influence the weathering rate and CO2 consumption, but their integrated effects remain absent in the world largest river basins. By interpreting the water chemistry and overall proton budget in the Yangtze Basin, we found that anthropogenic acidification had enhanced the chemical weathering by 40% during the past three decades, leading to an increase of 30% in solute discharged to the ocean. Moreover, substitution of carbonic acid by strong acids increased inorganic carbon evasion, offsetting 30% of the CO2 consumption by carbonic weathering. Our assessments show that anthropogenic loadings of sulfuric and nitrogen compounds accelerate chemical weathering but lower its CO2 sequestration. These findings have significant relevance to improving our contemporary global biogeochemical budgets. PMID:26150000

LASR-Guided Variability Subtraction: The Linear Algorithm for Significance Reduction of Stellar Seismic Activity

Science.gov (United States)

Horvath, Sarah; Myers, Sam; Ahlers, Johnathon; Barnes, Jason W.

2017-10-01

Stellar seismic activity produces variations in brightness that introduce oscillations into transit light curves, which can create challenges for traditional fitting models. These oscillations disrupt baseline stellar flux values and potentially mask transits. We develop a model that removes these oscillations from transit light curves by minimizing the significance of each oscillation in frequency space. By removing stellar variability, we prepare each light curve for traditional fitting techniques. We apply our model to $\\delta$-Scuti KOI-976 and demonstrate that our variability subtraction routine successfully allows for measuring bulk system characteristics using traditional light curve fitting. These results open a new window for characterizing bulk system parameters of planets orbiting seismically active stars.

Insurance against weather risk : use of heating degree-days from non-local stations for weather derivatives

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.

2003-01-01

Weather derivatives enable policy-holders to safeguard themselves against extreme weather conditions. The effectiveness and the efficiency of the risk transfer is determined by the spatial risk basis, which is the stochastic dependency of the local weather outcome being insured and the outcome of

Briefing highlights space weather risks to GPS

Science.gov (United States)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-07-01

Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.

Improved estimation of heavy rainfall by weather radar after reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability

Science.gov (United States)

Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2015-04-01

Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z-k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

Predictable weathering of puparial hydrocarbons of necrophagous flies for determining the postmortem interval: a field experiment using Chrysomya rufifacies.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Guang-Hui; Jia, Zheng-Jun; Yu, Xiao-Jun; Wu, Ku-Sheng; Chen, Lu-Shi; Lv, Jun-Yao; Eric Benbow, M

2017-05-01

Preadult development of necrophagous flies is commonly recognized as an accurate method for estimating the minimum postmortem interval (PMImin). However, once the PMImin exceeds the duration of preadult development, the method is less accurate. Recently, fly puparial hydrocarbons were found to significantly change with weathering time in the field, indicating their potential use for PMImin estimates. However, additional studies are required to demonstrate how the weathering varies among species. In this study, the puparia of Chrysomya rufifacies were placed in the field to experience natural weathering to characterize hydrocarbon composition change over time. We found that weathering of the puparial hydrocarbons was regular and highly predictable in the field. For most of the hydrocarbons, the abundance decreased significantly and could be modeled using a modified exponent function. In addition, the weathering rate was significantly correlated with the hydrocarbon classes. The weathering rate of 2-methyl alkanes was significantly lower than that of alkenes and internal methyl alkanes, and alkenes were higher than the other two classes. For mono-methyl alkanes, the rate was significantly and positively associated with carbon chain length and branch position. These results indicate that puparial hydrocarbon weathering is highly predictable and can be used for estimating long-term PMImin.

Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

Science.gov (United States)

... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

Impact of grain size and rock composition on simulated rock weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Israeli, Yoni; Emmanuel, Simon

2018-05-01

Both chemical and mechanical processes act together to control the weathering rate of rocks. In rocks with micrometer size grains, enhanced dissolution at grain boundaries has been observed to cause the mechanical detachment of particles. However, it remains unclear how important this effect is in rocks with larger grains, and how the overall weathering rate is influenced by the proportion of high- and low-reactivity mineral phases. Here, we use a numerical model to assess the effect of grain size on chemical weathering and chemo-mechanical grain detachment. Our model shows that as grain size increases, the weathering rate initially decreases; however, beyond a critical size no significant decrease in the rate is observed. This transition occurs when the density of reactive boundaries is less than ˜ 20 % of the entire domain. In addition, we examined the weathering rates of rocks containing different proportions of high- and low-reactivity minerals. We found that as the proportion of low-reactivity minerals increases, the weathering rate decreases nonlinearly. These simulations indicate that for all compositions, grain detachment contributes more than 36 % to the overall weathering rate, with a maximum of ˜ 50 % when high- and low-reactivity minerals are equally abundant in the rock. This occurs because selective dissolution of the high-reactivity minerals creates large clusters of low-reactivity minerals, which then become detached. Our results demonstrate that the balance between chemical and mechanical processes can create complex and nonlinear relationships between the weathering rate and lithology.

How Satellites Have Contributed to Building a Weather Ready Nation

Science.gov (United States)

Lapenta, W.

2017-12-01

NOAA's primary mission since its inception has been to reduce the loss of life and property, as well as disruptions from, high impact weather and water-related events. In recent years, significant societal losses resulting even from well forecast extreme events have shifted attention from the forecast alone toward ensuring societal response is equal to the risks that exist for communities, businesses and the public. The responses relate to decisions ranging from coastal communities planning years in advance to mitigate impacts from rising sea level, to immediate lifesaving decisions such as a family seeking adequate shelter during a tornado warning. NOAA is committed to building a "Weather-Ready Nation" where communities are prepared for and respond appropriately to these events. The Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) strategic priority is building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, climate and environmental threats. To build a Weather-Ready Nation, NOAA is enhancing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), transitioning science and technology advances into forecast operations, applying social science research to improve the communication and usefulness of information, and expanding its dissemination efforts to achieve far-reaching readiness, responsiveness and resilience. These four components of Weather-Ready Nation are helping ensure NOAA data, products and services are fully utilized to minimize societal impacts from extreme events. Satellite data and satellite products have been important elements of the national Weather Service (NWS) operations for more than 40 years. When one examines the uses of satellite data specific to the internal forecast and warning operations of NWS, two main applications are evident. The first is the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction models; the second is the use of satellite imagery and derived products for mesoscale and short-range weather warning and

NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

Science.gov (United States)

... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

... AND HERE COMES THE WEATHER - Austrian TV and radio weather news in the eye of the public

Science.gov (United States)

Keul, A.; Holzer, A. M.; Wostal, T.

2010-09-01

Media weather reports as the main avenue of meteorological and climatological information to the general public have always been in the focus of critical investigation. Former research found that although weather reports are high-interest topics, the amount of information recalled by non-experts is rather low, and criticized this. A pilot study (Keul et al., 2009) by the Salzburg University in cooperation with ORF, the Austrian Broadcasting Corporation, used historic radio files on a fair-weather and a storm situation. It identified the importance of intelligible wording of the weather forecast messages for lay people. Without quality control, weather information can stimulate rumours, false comfort or false alarms. More qualitative and experimental research, also on TV weather, seems justified. This need for further research was addressed by a second and larger field experiment in the spring of 2010. The survey took place in Salzburg City, Austria, with a quota sample of about 90 lay persons. This time TV and radio weather reports were used and a more realistic listening and viewing situation was created by presenting the latest weather forecasts of the given day to the test persons in the very next hours after originally broadcasting them. It asked lay people what they find important in the weather reports and what they remember for their actual next-day use. Reports of a fairweather prognosis were compared with a warning condition. The weather media mix of the users was explored. A second part of the study was a questionnaire which tested the understanding of typical figures of speech used in weather forecasts or even meteorological terms, which might also be important for fully understanding the severe weather warnings. This leads to quantitative and qualitative analysis from which the most important and unexpected results are presented. Short presentation times (1.5 to 2 minutes) make Austrian radio and TV weather reports a narrow compromise between general

Impact of Urbanization on Spatial Variability of Rainfall-A case study of Mumbai city with WRF Model

Science.gov (United States)

Mathew, M.; Paul, S.; Devanand, A.; Ghosh, S.

2015-12-01

Urban precipitation enhancement has been identified over many cities in India by previous studies conducted. Anthropogenic effects such as change in land cover from hilly forest areas to flat topography with solid concrete infrastructures has certain effect on the local weather, the same way the greenhouse gas has on climate change. Urbanization could alter the large scale forcings to such an extent that it may bring about temporal and spatial changes in the urban weather. The present study investigate the physical processes involved in urban forcings, such as the effect of sudden increase in wind velocity travelling through the channel space in between the dense array of buildings, which give rise to turbulence and air mass instability in urban boundary layer and in return alters the rainfall distribution as well as rainfall initiation. A numerical model study is conducted over Mumbai metropolitan city which lies on the west coast of India, to assess the effect of urban morphology on the increase in number of extreme rainfall events in specific locations. An attempt has been made to simulate twenty extreme rainfall events that occurred over the summer monsoon period of the year 2014 using high resolution WRF-ARW (Weather Research and Forecasting-Advanced Research WRF) model to assess the urban land cover mechanisms that influences precipitation variability over this spatially varying urbanized region. The result is tested against simulations with altered land use. The correlation of precipitation with spatial variability of land use is found using a detailed urban land use classification. The initial and boundary conditions for running the model were obtained from the global model ECMWF(European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast) reanalysis data having a horizontal resolution of 0.75 °x 0.75°. The high resolution simulations show significant spatial variability in the accumulated rainfall, within a few kilometers itself. Understanding the spatial

Effects of Space Weathering on Reflectance Spectra of Ureilites: A Proof-of-Concept Study

Science.gov (United States)

Goodrich, C. A.; Gillis-Davis, J.; Cloutis, E.; Applin, D.; Hibbits, C.; Klima, R.; Christoffersen, R.; Fries, M.; Decker, S.

2017-07-01

Space weathering and spectral studies of three ureilitic samples show that space weathering causes significant changes in UV-VIS-IR spectra and Raman spectra. Changes due to amorphization of carbon could disguise ureilitic asteroids as CC-like.

Variable Speed Limit (VSL) - Best Management Practice [Summary

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

In variable speed limit (VSL) zones, the speed : limit changes in response to traffic congestion, : adverse weather, or road conditions. VSL zones are : often highly automated and have been employed : successfully in several U.S. and European : locat...

Hillslope chemical weathering across Paraná, Brazil: A data mining-GIS hybrid approach

Science.gov (United States)

Iwashita, Fabio; Friedel, Michael J.; Filho, Carlos Roberto de Souza; Fraser, Stephen J.

2011-09-01

Self-organizing map (SOM) and geographic information system (GIS) models were used to investigate the nonlinear relationships associated with geochemical weathering processes at local (~100 km 2) and regional (~50,000 km 2) scales. The data set consisted of 1) 22 B-horizon soil variables: P, C, pH, Al, total acidity, Ca, Mg, K, total cation exchange capacity, sum of exchangeable bases, base saturation, Cu, Zn, Fe, B, S, Mn, gammaspectrometry (total count, potassium, thorium, and uranium) and magnetic susceptibility measures; and 2) six topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, hydrological accumulated flux, horizontal curvature and vertical curvature. It is characterized at 304 locations from a quasi-regular grid spaced about 24 km across the state of Paraná. This data base was split into two subsets: one for analysis and modeling (274 samples) and the other for validation (30 samples) purposes. The self-organizing map and clustering methods were used to identify and classify the relations among solid-phase chemical element concentrations and GIS derived topographic models. The correlation between elevation and k-means clusters related the relative position inside hydrologic macro basins, which was interpreted as an expression of the weathering process reaching a steady-state condition at the regional scale. Locally, the chemical element concentrations were related to the vertical curvature representing concave-convex hillslope features, where concave hillslopes with convergent flux tends to be a reducing environment and convex hillslopes with divergent flux, oxidizing environments. Stochastic cross validation demonstrated that the SOM produced unbiased classifications and quantified the relative amount of uncertainty in predictions. This work strengthens the hypothesis that, at B-horizon steady-state conditions, the terrain morphometry were linked with the soil geochemical weathering in a two-way dependent process: the topographic relief was a factor on

Hillslope chemical weathering across Paraná, Brazil: a data mining-GIS hybrid approach

Science.gov (United States)

Iwashita, Fabio; Friedel, Michael J.; Filho, Carlos Roberto de Souza; Fraser, Stephen J.

2011-01-01

Self-organizing map (SOM) and geographic information system (GIS) models were used to investigate the nonlinear relationships associated with geochemical weathering processes at local (~100 km2) and regional (~50,000 km2) scales. The data set consisted of 1) 22 B-horizon soil variables: P, C, pH, Al, total acidity, Ca, Mg, K, total cation exchange capacity, sum of exchangeable bases, base saturation, Cu, Zn, Fe, B, S, Mn, gammaspectrometry (total count, potassium, thorium, and uranium) and magnetic susceptibility measures; and 2) six topographic variables: elevation, slope, aspect, hydrological accumulated flux, horizontal curvature and vertical curvature. It is characterized at 304 locations from a quasi-regular grid spaced about 24 km across the state of Paraná. This data base was split into two subsets: one for analysis and modeling (274 samples) and the other for validation (30 samples) purposes. The self-organizing map and clustering methods were used to identify and classify the relations among solid-phase chemical element concentrations and GIS derived topographic models. The correlation between elevation and k-means clusters related the relative position inside hydrologic macro basins, which was interpreted as an expression of the weathering process reaching a steady-state condition at the regional scale. Locally, the chemical element concentrations were related to the vertical curvature representing concave–convex hillslope features, where concave hillslopes with convergent flux tends to be a reducing environment and convex hillslopes with divergent flux, oxidizing environments. Stochastic cross validation demonstrated that the SOM produced unbiased classifications and quantified the relative amount of uncertainty in predictions. This work strengthens the hypothesis that, at B-horizon steady-state conditions, the terrain morphometry were linked with the soil geochemical weathering in a two-way dependent process: the topographic relief was a factor on

A Severe Weather Laboratory Exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate Class Using Active Learning Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Grundstein, Andrew; Durkee, Joshua; Frye, John; Andersen, Theresa; Lieberman, Jordan

2011-01-01

This paper describes a new severe weather laboratory exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate class, appropriate for first and second year college students (including nonscience majors), that incorporates inquiry-based learning techniques. In the lab, students play the role of meteorologists making forecasts for severe weather. The…

Impacts of Snowy Weather Conditions on Expressway Traffic Flow Characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiancheng Weng

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Snowy weather will significantly degrade expressway operations, reduce service levels, and increase driving difficulty. Furthermore, the impact of snow varies in different types of roads, diverse cities, and snow densities due to different driving behavior. Traffic flow parameters are essential to decide what should be appropriate for weather-related traffic management and control strategies. This paper takes Beijing as a case study and analyzes traffic flow data collected by detectors in expressways. By comparing the performance of traffic flow under normal and snowy weather conditions, this paper quantitatively describes the impact of adverse weather on expressway volume and average speeds. Results indicate that average speeds on the Beijing expressway under heavy snow conditions decrease by 10–20 km/h when compared to those under normal weather conditions, the vehicle headway generally increases by 2–4 seconds, and the road capacity drops by about 33%. This paper also develops a specific expressway traffic parameter reduction model which proposes reduction coefficients of expressway volumes and speeds under various snow density conditions in Beijing. The conclusions paper provide effective foundational parameters for urban expressway controls and traffic management under snow conditions.

Probability for Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

Surface Temperature Variation Prediction Model Using Real-Time Weather Forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Karimi, M.; Vant-Hull, B.; Nazari, R.; Khanbilvardi, R.

2015-12-01

Combination of climate change and urbanization are heating up cities and putting the lives of millions of people in danger. More than half of the world's total population resides in cities and urban centers. Cities are experiencing urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. Hotter days are associated with serious health impacts, heart attaches and respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. Densely populated cities like Manhattan, New York can be affected by UHI impact much more than less populated cities. Even though many studies have been focused on the impact of UHI and temperature changes between urban and rural air temperature, not many look at the temperature variations within a city. These studies mostly use remote sensing data or typical measurements collected by local meteorological station networks. Local meteorological measurements only have local coverage and cannot be used to study the impact of UHI in a city and remote sensing data such as MODIS, LANDSAT and ASTER have with very low resolution which cannot be used for the purpose of this study. Therefore, predicting surface temperature in urban cities using weather data can be useful.Three months of Field campaign in Manhattan were used to measure spatial and temporal temperature variations within an urban setting by placing 10 fixed sensors deployed to measure temperature, relative humidity and sunlight. Fixed instrument shelters containing relative humidity, temperature and illumination sensors were mounted on lampposts in ten different locations in Manhattan (Vant-Hull et al, 2014). The shelters were fixed 3-4 meters above the ground for the period of three months from June 23 to September 20th of 2013 making measurements with the interval of 3 minutes. These high resolution temperature measurements and three months of weather data were used to predict temperature variability from weather forecasts. This study shows that the amplitude of spatial and temporal variation in temperature for each day can be predicted

Engaging Earth- and Environmental-Science Undergraduates Through Weather Discussions and an eLearning Weather Forecasting Contest

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, David M.; Anderson, Stuart; Seo-Zindy, Ryo

2013-06-01

For students who major in meteorology, engaging in weather forecasting can motivate learning, develop critical-thinking skills, improve their written communication, and yield better forecasts. Whether such advances apply to students who are not meteorology majors has been less demonstrated. To test this idea, a weather discussion and an eLearning weather forecasting contest were devised for a meteorology course taken by third-year undergraduate earth- and environmental-science students. The discussion consisted of using the recent, present, and future weather to amplify the topics of the week's lectures. Then, students forecasted the next day's high temperature and the probability of precipitation for Woodford, the closest official observing site to Manchester, UK. The contest ran for 10 weeks, and the students received credit for participation. The top students at the end of the contest received bonus points on their final grade. A Web-based forecast contest application was developed to register the students, receive their forecasts, and calculate weekly standings. Students who were successful in the forecast contest were not necessarily those who achieved the highest scores on the tests, demonstrating that the contest was possibly testing different skills than traditional learning. Student evaluations indicate that the weather discussion and contest were reasonably successful in engaging students to learn about the weather outside of the classroom, synthesize their knowledge from the lectures, and improve their practical understanding of the weather. Therefore, students taking a meteorology class, but not majoring in meteorology, can derive academic benefits from weather discussions and forecast contests. Nevertheless, student evaluations also indicate that better integration of the lectures, weather discussions, and the forecasting contests is necessary.

A practical approach for deriving all-weather soil moisture content using combined satellite and meteorological data

Science.gov (United States)

Leng, Pei; Li, Zhao-Liang; Duan, Si-Bo; Gao, Mao-Fang; Huo, Hong-Yuan

2017-09-01

Soil moisture has long been recognized as one of the essential variables in the water cycle and energy budget between Earth's surface and atmosphere. The present study develops a practical approach for deriving all-weather soil moisture using combined satellite images and gridded meteorological products. In this approach, soil moisture over the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) clear-sky pixels are estimated from the Vegetation Index/Temperature (VIT) trapezoid scheme in which theoretical dry and wet edges were determined pixel to pixel by China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) meteorological products, including air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and specific humidity. For cloudy pixels, soil moisture values are derived by the calculation of surface and aerodynamic resistances from wind speed. The approach is capable of filling the soil moisture gaps over remaining cloudy pixels by traditional optical/thermal infrared methods, allowing for a spatially complete soil moisture map over large areas. Evaluation over agricultural fields indicates that the proposed approach can produce an overall generally reasonable distribution of all-weather soil moisture. An acceptable accuracy between the estimated all-weather soil moisture and in-situ measurements at different depths could be found with an Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) varying from 0.067 m3/m3 to 0.079 m3/m3 and a slight bias ranging from 0.004 m3/m3 to -0.011 m3/m3. The proposed approach reveals significant potential to derive all-weather soil moisture using currently available satellite images and meteorological products at a regional or global scale in future developments.

Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

1980-08-01

In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

Variability of the raindrop size distribution at small spatial scales

Science.gov (United States)

Berne, A.; Jaffrain, J.

2010-12-01

Because of the interactions between atmospheric turbulence and cloud microphysics, the raindrop size distribution (DSD) is strongly variable in space and time. The spatial variability of the DSD at small spatial scales (below a few km) is not well documented and not well understood, mainly because of a lack of adequate measurements at the appropriate resolutions. A network of 16 disdrometers (Parsivels) has been designed and set up over EPFL campus in Lausanne, Switzerland. This network covers a typical operational weather radar pixel of 1x1 km2. The question of the significance of the variability of the DSD at such small scales is relevant for radar remote sensing of rainfall because the DSD is often assumed to be uniform within a radar sample volume and because the Z-R relationships used to convert the measured radar reflectivity Z into rain rate R are usually derived from point measurements. Thanks to the number of disdrometers, it was possible to quantify the spatial variability of the DSD at the radar pixel scale and to show that it can be significant. In this contribution, we show that the variability of the total drop concentration, of the median volume diameter and of the rain rate are significant, taking into account the sampling uncertainty associated with disdrometer measurements. The influence of this variability on the Z-R relationship can be non-negligible. Finally, the spatial structure of the DSD is quantified using a geostatistical tool, the variogram, and indicates high spatial correlation within a radar pixel.

Biological variability in biomechanical engineering research: Significance and meta-analysis of current modeling practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Cook, Douglas; Julias, Margaret; Nauman, Eric

2014-04-11