WorldWideScience

Sample records for significant weather variables

  1. SIGWX Charts - High Level Significant Weather

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — High level significant weather (SIGWX) forecasts are provided for the en-route portion of international flights. NOAA's National Weather Service Aviation Center...

  2. Impact of weather variability on nitrate leaching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Karl; Premrov, Alina; Hackett, Richard; Coxon, Catherine

    2016-04-01

    The loss of nitrate (NO3 - N) to water via leaching and overland flow contributes to eutrophication of freshwaters, transitional and near coastal waters with agriculture contributing significantly to nitrogen (N) loading to these water. Environmental regulations, such as the Nitrates and Water Framework Directives, have increased constraints on farmers to improve N management in regions at risk of NO3--N loss to water. In addition, farmers also have to manage their systems within a changing climate as the imapcts of climate change begin to impact resulting in more frequent extreme events such as floods and droughts. The objective of this study was to investigate the link between weather volatility and the concentration of leached NO3--N spring barley. Leaching was quantified under spring barley grown on a well-drained, gravelly sandy soil using ceramic cup samplers over 6 drainage years under the same farming practices and treatments. Soil solution NO3--N concentrations under spring barley grown by conventional inversion ploughing and reduced tillage were compared to weather parameters over the period. Weather was recorded at a national Met Eireann weather station on site. Soil solution NO3--N varied significantly between years. Within individual years NO3--N concentrations varied over the drainage season, with peak concentrations generally observed in the autumn time, decreasing thereafter. Under both treatments there was a three-fold difference in mean annual soil solution NO3--N concentration over the 6 years with no change in the agronomic practices (crop type, tillage type and fertiliser input). Soil solution nitrate concentrations were significantly influenced by weather parameters such as rainfall, effective drainage and soil moisture deficit. The impact of climate change in Ireland could lead to increased NO3--N loss to water further exacerbating eutrophication of sensitive estuaries. The increased impact on eutrophication of waters, related to climatic

  3. Energy, variability and weather finance engineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roussis, Dimitrios; Parara, Iliana; Gournari, Panagiota; Moustakis, Yiannis; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Karakatsanis, Georgios

    2017-04-01

    Most types of renewable energies are characterized by intense intermittency, causing significant instabilities to the grid; further requiring additional infrastructure (e.g. pumped-storage) for buffering hydrometeorological uncertainties, as well as complex operational rules for load balancing. In addition, most intermittent renewable units are subsidized, creating significant market inefficiencies. Weather derivatives comprise mature financial tools for integrating successfully the intermittent-load and base-load components into a unified hybrid energy system and establish their operation within a generalized uncertainty management market. With a growing global market share and 46% utilization of this financial tool by the energy industry and 12% by agriculture (that partially concerns biofuel resources), weather derivatives are projected to constitute a critical subsystem of many grids for buffering frequent hydrometeorological risks of low and medium impacts -which are not covered by standard insurance contracts that aim exclusively at extreme events and high financial damages. In this context, we study the attributes of hydrometeorological time series in a remote and small island in Greece, powered by an autonomous hybrid energy system. Upon the results we choose the optimal underlying index and we further compose and engineer a weather derivative with features of a typical option contract -which we consider most flexible and appropriate for the case- to test our assumptions on its beneficiary effects for both the budget of private energy producers and the island's public administration. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students in the Assembly.

  4. Understanding the weather signal in national crop-yield variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frieler, Katja; Schauberger, Bernhard; Arneth, Almut; Balkovič, Juraj; Chryssanthacopoulos, James; Deryng, Delphine; Elliott, Joshua; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Müller, Christoph; Olin, Stefan; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Schewe, Jacob; Schmid, Erwin; Warszawski, Lila; Levermann, Anders

    2017-06-01

    Year-to-year variations in crop yields can have major impacts on the livelihoods of subsistence farmers and may trigger significant global price fluctuations, with severe consequences for people in developing countries. Fluctuations can be induced by weather conditions, management decisions, weeds, diseases, and pests. Although an explicit quantification and deeper understanding of weather-induced crop-yield variability is essential for adaptation strategies, so far it has only been addressed by empirical models. Here, we provide conservative estimates of the fraction of reported national yield variabilities that can be attributed to weather by state-of-the-art, process-based crop model simulations. We find that observed weather variations can explain more than 50% of the variability in wheat yields in Australia, Canada, Spain, Hungary, and Romania. For maize, weather sensitivities exceed 50% in seven countries, including the United States. The explained variance exceeds 50% for rice in Japan and South Korea and for soy in Argentina. Avoiding water stress by simulating yields assuming full irrigation shows that water limitation is a major driver of the observed variations in most of these countries. Identifying the mechanisms leading to crop-yield fluctuations is not only fundamental for dampening fluctuations, but is also important in the context of the debate on the attribution of loss and damage to climate change. Since process-based crop models not only account for weather influences on crop yields, but also provide options to represent human-management measures, they could become essential tools for differentiating these drivers, and for exploring options to reduce future yield fluctuations.

  5. Optimizing Placement of Weather Stations: Exploring Objective Functions of Meaningful Combinations of Multiple Weather Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, A.; Dietterich, T.; Selker, J. S.

    2017-12-01

    Many regions of the world lack ground-based weather data due to inadequate or unreliable weather station networks. For example, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa have unreliable, sparse networks of weather stations. The absence of these data can have consequences on weather forecasting, prediction of severe weather events, agricultural planning, and climate change monitoring. The Trans-African Hydro-Meteorological Observatory (TAHMO.org) project seeks to address these problems by deploying and operating a large network of weather stations throughout Sub-Saharan Africa. To design the TAHMO network, we must determine where to place weather stations within each country. We should consider how we can create accurate spatio-temporal maps of weather data and how to balance the desired accuracy of each weather variable of interest (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, etc.). We can express this problem as a joint optimization of multiple weather variables, given a fixed number of weather stations. We use reanalysis data as the best representation of the "true" weather patterns that occur in the region of interest. For each possible combination of sites, we interpolate the reanalysis data between selected locations and calculate the mean average error between the reanalysis ("true") data and the interpolated data. In order to formulate our multi-variate optimization problem, we explore different methods of weighting each weather variable in our objective function. These methods include systematic variation of weights to determine which weather variables have the strongest influence on the network design, as well as combinations targeted for specific purposes. For example, we can use computed evapotranspiration as a metric that combines many weather variables in a way that is meaningful for agricultural and hydrological applications. We compare the errors of the weather station networks produced by each optimization problem formulation. We also compare these

  6. Simple model for crop photosynthesis in terms of weather variables ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical mathematical model for describing crop photosynthetic rate in terms of the weather variables and crop characteristics is proposed. The model utilizes a series of efficiency parameters, each of which reflect the fraction of possible photosynthetic rate permitted by the different weather elements or crop architecture.

  7. Model for expressing leaf photosynthesis in terms of weather variables

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A theoretical mathematical model for describing photosynthesis in individual leaves in terms of weather variables is proposed. The model utilizes a series of efficiency parameters, each of which reflect the fraction of potential photosynthetic rate permitted by the different environmental elements. These parameters are useful ...

  8. Seasonality in trauma admissions - Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Røislien, Jo; Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

    2018-01-01

    Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001-2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year.

  9. Seasonality in trauma admissions – Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

    2018-01-01

    Background Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Methods Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001–2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Results A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Conclusion Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year. PMID:29425210

  10. Tool for Constructing Data Albums for Significant Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, A.; Ramachandran, R.; Conover, H.; McEniry, M.; Goodman, H.; Zavodsky, B. T.; Braun, S. A.; Wilson, B. D.

    2012-12-01

    Case study analysis and climatology studies are common approaches used in Atmospheric Science research. Research based on case studies involves a detailed description of specific weather events using data from different sources, to characterize physical processes in play for a given event. Climatology-based research tends to focus on the representativeness of a given event, by studying the characteristics and distribution of a large number of events. To gather relevant data and information for case studies and climatology analysis is tedious and time consuming; current Earth Science data systems are not suited to assemble multi-instrument, multi mission datasets around specific events. For example, in hurricane science, finding airborne or satellite data relevant to a given storm requires searching through web pages and data archives. Background information related to damages, deaths, and injuries requires extensive online searches for news reports and official storm summaries. We will present a knowledge synthesis engine to create curated "Data Albums" to support case study analysis and climatology studies. The technological challenges in building such a reusable and scalable knowledge synthesis engine are several. First, how to encode domain knowledge in a machine usable form? This knowledge must capture what information and data resources are relevant and the semantic relationships between the various fragments of information and data. Second, how to extract semantic information from various heterogeneous sources including unstructured texts using the encoded knowledge? Finally, how to design a structured database from the encoded knowledge to store all information and to support querying? The structured database must allow both knowledge overviews of an event as well as drill down capability needed for detailed analysis. An application ontology driven framework is being used to design the knowledge synthesis engine. The knowledge synthesis engine is being

  11. Weather variability affects the Peregrine Falcon (F. p. tundrius) breeding success in South Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlzon, Linnéa; Karlsson, Amanda; Falk, Knud

    Global warming is affecting the Arctic at a much higher rate than the rest of the globe, causing a rapidly changing environment for Arctic biota. Climate change is already causing increased variability and extremes in precipitation. Although the peregrine falcon is a well-studied top predator...... in the Arctic only a few studies have identified how the changing weather patterns affect the breeding populations. Therefore, in order to understand the effects of climate change on the peregrine’s future prospects, we investigated the relationship between weather variability (“extreme weather”) and breeding......’ and total days with ‘extreme weather’ during the pre-laying and incubation period also had significant negative correlation with breeding success. Contrary to expectations (and other studies), we found no significant effect of precipitation during the nesting period. Results also indicate that other factors...

  12. Estimating dew formation in rice, using seasonally averaged diel patterns of weather variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luo, W.; Goudriaan, J.

    2004-01-01

    If dew formation cannot be measured it has to be estimated. Available simulation models for estimating dew formation require hourly weather data as input. However, such data are not available for places without an automatic weather station. In such cases the diel pattern of weather variables might

  13. Offshore Variability in Critical Weather Conditions in Large-Scale Wind Based Danish Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2013-01-01

    of the variability for the 2020 Danish power system, one can see that in the worst case, up to 1500 MW of power can be lost in 30 minutes. We present results showing how this issue is partially solved by the new High Wind Storm Controller presented by Siemens in the TWENTIES project.......Offshore wind power has a significant development potential, especially in North Europe. The geographical concentration of offshore wind power leads to increased variability and in the case of critical weather conditions it may lead to sudden and considerable loss of production. In this context......, the chances of losing several GW of wind power due to critical weather conditions in a very short time period could potentially jeopardize the whole system’s reliability and stability. Forecasting such events is not trivial and the results so far are not encouraging. When assessing the impact...

  14. Weather is not significantly correlated with destination-specific transport-related physical activity among adults: A large-scale temporally matched analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand, Casey P; Zhang, Kai; Salvo, Deborah

    2017-08-01

    Weather is an element of the natural environment that could have a significant effect on physical activity. Existing research, however, indicates only modest correlations between measures of weather and physical activity. This prior work has been limited by a failure to use time-matched weather and physical activity data, or has not adequately examined the different domains of physical activity (transport, leisure, occupational, etc.). Our objective was to identify the correlation between weather variables and destination-specific transport-related physical activity in adults. Data were sourced from the California Household Travel Survey, collected in 2012-3. Weather variables included: relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and precipitation. Transport-related physical activity (walking) was sourced from participant-recorded travel diaries. Three-part hurdle models were used to analyze the data. Results indicate statistically or substantively insignificant correlations between the weather variables and transport-related physical activity for all destination types. These results provide the strongest evidence to date that transport-related physical activity may occur relatively independently of weather conditions. The knowledge that weather conditions do not seem to be a significant barrier to this domain of activity may potentially expand the universe of geographic locations that are amenable to environmental and programmatic interventions to increase transport-related walking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Relative roles of weather variables and change in human population in malaria: comparison over different states of India.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashant Goswami

    Full Text Available Pro-active and effective control as well as quantitative assessment of impact of climate change on malaria requires identification of the major drivers of the epidemic. Malaria depends on vector abundance which, in turn, depends on a combination of weather variables. However, there remain several gaps in our understanding and assessment of malaria in a changing climate. Most of the studies have considered weekly or even monthly mean values of weather variables, while the malaria vector is sensitive to daily variations. Secondly, rarely all the relevant meteorological variables have been considered together. An important question is the relative roles of weather variables (vector abundance and change in host (human population, in the change in disease load.We consider the 28 states of India, characterized by diverse climatic zones and changing population as well as complex variability in malaria, as a natural test bed. An annual vector load for each of the 28 states is defined based on the number of vector genesis days computed using daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity from NCEP daily Reanalysis; a prediction of potential malaria load is defined by taking into consideration changes in the human population and compared with the reported number of malaria cases.For most states, the number of malaria cases is very well correlated with the vector load calculated with the combined conditions of daily values of temperature, rainfall and humidity; no single weather variable has any significant association with the observed disease prevalence.The association between vector-load and daily values of weather variables is robust and holds for different climatic regions (states of India. Thus use of all the three weather variables provides a reliable means of pro-active and efficient vector sanitation and control as well as assessment of impact of climate change on malaria.

  16. Weathering of plagioclase across variable flow and solute transport regimes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pacheco, F.A.L.; Weijden, C.H. van der

    2012-01-01

    The study area is situated in a fault zone with fractured granites and metasediments. In a conceptual model, infiltrating water first passes the bedrock cover of soil and saprolite and then partly enters the fractures. Weathering reactions of minerals occur in small pores and fissures in the bedrock

  17. Influence of weather variables and plant communities on grasshopper density in the Southern Pampas, Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Wysiecki, María Laura; Arturi, Marcelo; Torrusio, Sandra; Cigliano, María Marta

    2011-01-01

    temperature had no significant effect on total grasshopper density, these weather variables and plant communities had differential influence on the dominant grasshopper species.

  18. Daily weather variables and affective disorder admissions to psychiatric hospitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    McWilliams, Stephen; Kinsella, Anthony; O'Callaghan, Eadbhard

    2014-12-01

    Numerous studies have reported that admission rates in patients with affective disorders are subject to seasonal variation. Notwithstanding, there has been limited evaluation of the degree to which changeable daily meteorological patterns influence affective disorder admission rates. A handful of small studies have alluded to a potential link between psychiatric admission rates and meteorological variables such as environmental temperature (heat waves in particular), wind direction and sunshine. We used the Kruskal-Wallis test, ARIMA and time-series regression analyses to examine whether daily meteorological variables—namely wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, rainfall, hours of sunshine, sunlight radiation and temperature—influence admission rates for mania and depression across 12 regions in Ireland over a 31-year period. Although we found some very weak but interesting trends for barometric pressure in relation to mania admissions, daily meteorological patterns did not appear to affect hospital admissions overall for mania or depression. Our results do not support the small number of papers to date that suggest a link between daily meteorological variables and affective disorder admissions. Further study is needed.

  19. Physical activity levels of community-dwelling older adults are influenced by winter weather variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, G R; Brandon, C; Gill, D P

    2017-07-01

    Winter weather conditions may negatively influence participation of older adults in daily physical activity (PA). Assess the influence of winter meteorological variables, day-time peak ambient temperature, windchill, humidity, and snow accumulation on the ground to accelerometer measured PA values in older adults. 50 community-dwelling older adults (77.4±4.7yrs; range 71-89; 12 females) living in Southwestern Ontario (Latitude 42.9°N Longitude 81.2° W) Canada, wore a waist-borne accelerometer during active waking hours (12h) for 7 consecutive days between February and April 2007. Hourly temperature, windchill, humidity, and snowfall accumulation were obtained from meteorological records and time locked to hourly accelerometer PA values. Regression analysis revealed significant relationships between time of day, ambient daytime high temperature and a humidity for participation in PA. Windchill temperature added no additional influence over PA acclamation already influenced by ambient day-time temperature and the observed variability in PA patterns relative to snow accumulation over the study period was too great to warrant its inclusion in the model. Most PA was completed in the morning hours and increased as the winter month's transitioned to spring (February through April). An equation was developed to adjust for winter weather conditions using temperature, humidity and time of day. Accurate PA assessment during the winter months must account for the ambient daytime high temperatures, humidity, and time of day. These older adults were more physically active during the morning hours and became more active as the winter season transitioned to spring. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Impact of selected personal factors on seasonal variability of recreationist weather perceptions and preferences in Warsaw (Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner-Cendrowska, Katarzyna; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

    2018-01-01

    Weather and climate are important natural resources for tourism and recreation, although sometimes they can make outdoor leisure activities less satisfying or even impossible. The aim of this work was to determine weather perception seasonal variability of people staying outdoors in urban environment for tourism and recreation, as well as to determine if personal factors influence estimation of recreationist actual biometeorological conditions and personal expectations towards weather elements. To investigate how human thermal sensations vary upon meteorological conditions typical for temperate climate, weather perception field researches were conducted in Warsaw (Poland) in all seasons. Urban recreationists' preference for slightly warm thermal conditions, sunny, windless and cloudless weather, were identified as well as PET values considered to be optimal for sightseeing were defined between 27.3 and 31.7 °C. The results confirmed existence of phenomena called alliesthesia, which manifested in divergent thermal perception of comparable biometeorological conditions in transitional seasons. The results suggest that recreationist thermal sensations differed from other interviewees' responses and were affected not only by physiological processes but they were also conditioned by psychological factors (i.e. attitude, expectations). Significant impact of respondents' place of origin and its climate on creating thermal sensations and preferences was observed. Sex and age influence thermal preferences, whereas state of acclimatization is related with thermal sensations to some point.

  1. Influence of weather and climate variables on the basal area growth of individual shortleaf pine trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradip Saud; Thomas B. Lynch; Duncan S. Wilson; John Stewart; James M. Guldin; Bob Heinemann; Randy Holeman; Dennis Wilson; Keith Anderson

    2015-01-01

    An individual-tree basal area growth model previously developed for even-aged naturally occurring shortleaf pine trees (Pinus echinata Mill.) in western Arkansas and southeastern Oklahoma did not include weather variables. Individual-tree growth and yield modeling of shortleaf pine has been carried out using the remeasurements of over 200 plots...

  2. Ethno-meteorology and scientific weather forecasting: Small farmers and scientists’ perspectives on climate variability in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwatoyin Dare Kolawole

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent trends in abrupt weather changes continue to pose a challenge to agricultural production most especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper specifically addresses the questions on how local farmers read and predict the weather; and how they can collaborate with weather scientists in devising adaptation strategies for climate variability (CV in the Okavango Delta of Botswana. Recent trends in agriculture-related weather variables available from country’s climate services, as well as in freely available satellite rainfall products were analysed. The utility of a seasonal hydrological forecasting system for the study area in the context of supporting farmer’s information needs were assessed. Through a multi-stage sampling procedure, a total of 592 households heads in 8 rural communities in the Okavango Delta were selected and interviewed using open and close-ended interview schedules. Also, 19 scientists were purposively selected and interviewed using questionnaires. Key informant interviews, focus group and knowledge validation workshops were used to generate qualitative information from both farmers and scientists. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used in summarising the data. Analysis of satellite rainfall products indicated that there was a consistent increase in total annual rainfall throughout the region in the last 10 years, accompanied by an increase in number of rain days, and reduction of duration of dry spells. However, there is a progressive increase in the region’s temperatures leading to increase in potential evaporation. Findings from social surveys show that farmers’ age, education level, number of years engaged in farming, sources of weather information, knowledge of weather forecasting and decision on farming practices either had a significant relationship or correlation with their perceptions about the nature of both local [ethno-meteorological] and scientific weather knowledge. Nonetheless, there was a

  3. A comparison of weather variables linked to infectious disease patterns using laboratory addresses and patient residence addresses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djennad, Abdelmajid; Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Sarran, Christophe; Fleming, Lora E; Kessel, Anthony; Haines, Andy; Nichols, Gordon L

    2018-04-27

    To understand the impact of weather on infectious diseases, information on weather parameters at patient locations is needed, but this is not always accessible due to confidentiality or data availability. Weather parameters at nearby locations are often used as a proxy, but the accuracy of this practice is not known. Daily Campylobacter and Cryptosporidium cases across England and Wales were linked to local temperature and rainfall at the residence postcodes of the patients and at the corresponding postcodes of the laboratory where the patient's specimen was tested. The paired values of daily rainfall and temperature for the laboratory versus residence postcodes were interpolated from weather station data, and the results were analysed for agreement using linear regression. We also assessed potential dependency of the findings on the relative geographic distance between the patient's residence and the laboratory. There was significant and strong agreement between the daily values of rainfall and temperature at diagnostic laboratories with the values at the patient residence postcodes for samples containing the pathogens Campylobacter or Cryptosporidium. For rainfall, the R-squared was 0.96 for the former and 0.97 for the latter, and for maximum daily temperature, the R-squared was 0.99 for both. The overall mean distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was 11.9 km; however, the distribution of these distances exhibited a heavy tail, with some rare situations where the distance between the patient residence and the laboratory was larger than 500 km. These large distances impact the distributions of the weather variable discrepancies (i.e. the differences between weather parameters estimated at patient residence postcodes and those at laboratory postcodes), with discrepancies up to ±10 °C for the minimum and maximum temperature and 20 mm for rainfall. Nevertheless, the distributions of discrepancies (estimated separately for minimum and maximum

  4. Review on the solar spectral variability in the EUV for space weather purposes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lilensten

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The solar XUV-EUV flux is the main energy source in the terrestrial diurnal thermosphere: it produces ionization, dissociation, excitation and heating. Accurate knowledge of this flux is of prime importance for space weather. We first list the space weather applications that require nowcasting and forecasting of the solar XUV-EUV flux. We then review present models and discuss how they account for the variability of the solar spectrum. We show why the measurement of the full spectrum is difficult, and why it is illusory to retrieve it from its atmospheric effects. We then address the problem of determining a set of observations that are adapted for space weather purposes, in the frame of ionospheric studies. Finally, we review the existing and future space experiments that are devoted to the observation of the solar XUV-EUV spectrum.

  5. The Amazon hydrometeorology: Climatology, variability and links to changes in weather patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Katia De Avila

    My thesis focuses on improving the quantification of the hydrological cycle and understanding the atmospheric processes that link weather to climate in the Amazon River basin. By using ERA40 and independent observations, I assess how well we can estimate the surface water budget in the Amazon River basin. I find that ERA40 basin wide annual precipitation (P) overall agrees with observations showing a slight underestimation of 10% in average, whereas runoff (R) is underestimated by a larger margin (˜25%). Observed residual of precipitation and runoff (denoted as P-R) is better estimated by ERA40 P-R than actual ET which includes soil moisture nudging. The causes for said discrepancies were found to partly relate to soil moisture nudging that needs to be applied during the dry season to produce realistic ET and compensate for the low soil moisture recharge during the previous wet season. Insufficient recharge may in part be caused by underestimation of rainfall amount and intensity; moreover the shallow root layer in the model does not represent the deep soil water reservoir characteristic of the Amazonian forest. Whether the hydrological cycle and weather patterns in the Amazon have changed during the past few decades is a highly debatable but central question for detecting climate change in the region. The second part of my thesis focus on the physical links between rainfall changes detected in observations, and changes of synoptic scale systems as represented by ERA40. My results suggest that an observed delayed wet season onset is consistent with a decreasing number of cold air incursion (CAI) days in southern Amazon for the period 1979--2001. The variability of CAI into southern Amazon is related to the variability of SST upstream of South America in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans. A Singular Value Decomposition Analysis (SVD) between CAI days and global SST reveal three main modes of co-variability. The first mode describes the effect of the El Nino

  6. Calibration of Local Area Weather Radar-Identifying significant factors affecting the calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Lisbeth; Jensen, Niels Einar; Madsen, Henrik

    2010-01-01

    A Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) is an X-band weather radar developed to meet the needs of high resolution rainfall data for hydrological applications. The LAWR system and data processing methods are reviewed in the first part of this paper, while the second part of the paper focuses...... cases when the calibration is based on a factorized 3 parameter linear model instead of a single parameter linear model....

  7. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2009-10-15

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  8. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

    2009-01-01

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  9. The role of forest trees and their mycorrhizal fungi in carbonate rock weathering and its significance for global carbon cycling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorley, Rachel M S; Taylor, Lyla L; Banwart, Steve A; Leake, Jonathan R; Beerling, David J

    2015-09-01

    On million-year timescales, carbonate rock weathering exerts no net effect on atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, on timescales of decades-to-centuries, it can contribute to sequestration of anthropogenic CO2 and increase land-ocean alkalinity flux, counteracting ocean acidification. Historical evidence indicates this flux is sensitive to land use change, and recent experimental evidence suggests that trees and their associated soil microbial communities are major drivers of continental mineral weathering. Here, we review key physical and chemical mechanisms by which the symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi of forest tree roots potentially enhance carbonate rock weathering. Evidence from our ongoing field study at the UK's national pinetum confirms increased weathering of carbonate rocks by a wide range of gymnosperm and angiosperm tree species that form arbuscular (AM) or ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungal partnerships. We demonstrate that calcite-containing rock grains under EM tree species weather significantly faster than those under AM trees, an effect linked to greater soil acidification by EM trees. Weathering and corresponding alkalinity export are likely to increase with rising atmospheric CO2 and associated climate change. Our analyses suggest that strategic planting of fast-growing EM angiosperm taxa on calcite- and dolomite-rich terrain might accelerate the transient sink for atmospheric CO2 and slow rates of ocean acidification. © 2014 The Authors. Plant, Cell & Environment published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Significance of blood pressure variability in patients with sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Nishant Raj; Bian, Yu-Yao; Shou, Song-Tao

    2014-01-01

    This study was undertaken to observe the characteristics of blood pressure variability (BPV) and sepsis and to investigate changes in blood pressure and its value on the severity of illness in patients with sepsis. Blood parameters, APACHE II score, and 24-hour ambulatory BP were analyzed in 89 patients with sepsis. In patients with APACHE II score>19, the values of systolic blood pressure (SBPV), diasystolic blood pressure (DBPV), non-dipper percentage, cortisol (COR), lactate (LAC), platelet count (PLT) and glucose (GLU) were significantly higher than in those with APACHE II score ≤19 (Pblood cell (WBC), creatinine (Cr), PaO2, C-reactive protein (CRP), adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) were not statistically significant (P>0.05). Correlation analysis showed that APACHE II scores correlated significantly with SBPV and DBPV (P0.05). Logistic regression analysis of SBPV, DBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was used to predict prognosis in terms of survival and non-survival rates. Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) showed that DBPV was a better predictor of survival rate with an AUC value of 0.890. However, AUC of SBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was 0.746, 0.831 and 0.915, respectively. The values of SBPV, DBPV and non-dipper percentage are higher in patients with sepsis. DBPV and SBPV can be used to predict the survival rate of patients with sepsis.

  11. Assessment of rock mechanical properties and seismic slope stability in variably weathered layered basalts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenwood, William; Clark, Marin; Zekkos, Dimitrios; Von Voigtlander, Jennifer; Bateman, Julie; Lowe, Katherine; Hirose, Mitsuhito; Anderson, Suzanne; Anderson, Robert; Lynch, Jerome

    2016-04-01

    A field and laboratory experimental study was conducted to assess the influence of weathering on the mechanical properties of basalts in the region of the Kohala volcano on the island of Hawaii. Through the systematic characterization of the weathering profiles developed in different precipitation regimes, we aim to explain the regional pattern of stability of slopes in layered basalts that were observed during the 2006 Mw 6.7 Kiholo Bay earthquake. While deeper weathering profiles on the wet side of the island might be expected to promote more and larger landslides, the distribution of landslides during the Kiholo Bay earthquake did not follow this anticipated trend. Landslide frequency (defined as number of landslides divided by total area) was similar on the steepest slopes (> 50-60) for both the dry and the wet side of the study area suggesting relatively strong ground materials irrespective of weathering. The study location is ideally suited to investigate the role of precipitation, and more broadly of climate, on the mechanical properties of the local rock units because the presence of the Kohala volcano produces a significant precipitation gradient on what are essentially identical basaltic flows. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) varies by more than an order of magnitude, from 200 mm/year on the western side of the volcano to 4000 mm/year in the eastern side. We will present results of measured shear wave velocities using a seismic surface wave methodology. These results were paired with laboratory testing on selected basalt specimens that document the sample-scale shear wave velocity and unconfined compressive strength of the basaltic rocks. Shear wave velocity and unconfined strength of the rocks are correlated and are both significantly lower in weathered rocks near the ground surface than at depth. This weathering-related reduction in shear wave velocity extends to greater depths in areas of high precipitation compared to areas of lower precipitation

  12. Influences of rainfall variables and antecedent discharge on urban effluent concentrations and loads in wet weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zuxin; Xiong, Lijun; Li, Huaizheng; Liao, Zhengliang; Yin, Hailong; Wu, Jun; Xu, Jin; Chen, Hao

    2017-04-01

    For storm drainages inappropriately connected with sewage, wet weather discharge is a major factor that adversely affects receiving waters. A study of the wet weather influences of rainfall-discharge variables on storm drainages connected with sewage was conducted in the downtown Shanghai area (374 ha). Two indicators, event mean concentration (EMC) and event pollutant load per unit area (EPL), were used to describe the pollution discharge during 20 rain events. The study showed that the total rainfall and discharge volume were important factors that affect the EMCs and EPLs of the chemical oxygen demand, total phosphorus, and especially those of NH 4 + -N. The pollutant concentrations at the beginning of the discharge and the discharge period were also major factors that influence the EMCs of these three pollutants. Regression relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and discharge volume/ EPLs (R 2 = 0.824-0.981) were stronger than the relationships between the rainfall-discharge variables and EMCs. These regression equations can be considered reliable in the system, with a relative validation error of less than ±10% for the discharge volume, and less than ±20% for the EPLs. The results presented in this paper provide guidance for effectively controlling pollution in similar storm drainages.

  13. Significant Variables in the Combustion Process of Natural Gas

    OpenAIRE

    Villaflor, Gloria; Morales, Graciela V; Velasco, Jorge

    2008-01-01

    Se determinan las variables significativas del proceso de combustión de gas natural, aquellas más sensibles para producir cambios importantes desde punto de vista económico y medioambiental. Con este fin se realiza la simulación del proceso de combustión de gas natural, utilizando el simulador comercial HYSYS. Se determina que las variables de operación más sensibles para este proceso son la temperatura del aire, la temperatura de los gases de combustión y el exceso de aire usado en la combus...

  14. Value of Construction Company and its Dependence on Significant Variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vítková, E.; Hromádka, V.; Ondrušková, E.

    2017-10-01

    The paper deals with the value of the construction company assessment respecting usable approaches and determinable variables. The reasons of the value of the construction company assessment are different, but the most important reasons are the sale or the purchase of the company, the liquidation of the company, the fusion of the company with another subject or the others. According the reason of the value assessment it is possible to determine theoretically different approaches for valuation, mainly it concerns about the yield method of valuation and the proprietary method of valuation. Both approaches are dependant of detailed input variables, which quality will influence the final assessment of the company´s value. The main objective of the paper is to suggest, according to the analysis, possible ways of input variables, mainly in the form of expected cash-flows or the profit, determination. The paper is focused mainly on methods of time series analysis, regression analysis and mathematical simulation utilization. As the output, the results of the analysis on the case study will be demonstrated.

  15. a Study of Risk Preferences and Perceptions of Weather Variability of Smallholder Subsistence Farmers in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, S.; Michelson, H. C.

    2013-12-01

    called parametric Dynamic Experiments for Estimating Preferences developed at Columbia University to measure three prospect theory parameters using an adaptive survey tool installed on a tablet PC. Our work is the first to use an adaptive survey tool to measure risk preferences and to combine these measures with both panel data on agricultural investments and beliefs about climate change using scenarios. Despite the need for better understanding of how farmer preferences over time and risk might influence technology adoption and production decisions made by farmers in sub-Saharan Africa, there is a critical gap in research about this topic. Whether and how vulnerability to climate change has entered the mind frame of farmers is explored with a scenario setup, in which farmers are asked to provide advice to a hypothetical farmer facing low yields due to a prolonged drought. Farmer responses to the scenarios give us information about both the channel through which farmers receive information about agriculture and adaptation and primary factors mentioned to be important agricultural strategies in the face of increasingly unpredictable weather patterns. This research offers insights to understand decision-making process of smallholder farmers, who face adverse effects of weather variability and the present problem of low soil fertility.

  16. Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Min-Uk; Moon, Kyong Whan; Sohn, Jong-Ryeul; Byeon, Sang-Hoon

    2018-05-18

    We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA) tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA) and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH₃), 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl), 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF), and 69% nitric acid (HNO₃). The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

  17. Sensitivity Analysis of Weather Variables on Offsite Consequence Analysis Tools in South Korea and the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min-Uk Kim

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available We studied sensitive weather variables for consequence analysis, in the case of chemical leaks on the user side of offsite consequence analysis (OCA tools. We used OCA tools Korea Offsite Risk Assessment (KORA and Areal Location of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA in South Korea and the United States, respectively. The chemicals used for this analysis were 28% ammonia (NH3, 35% hydrogen chloride (HCl, 50% hydrofluoric acid (HF, and 69% nitric acid (HNO3. The accident scenarios were based on leakage accidents in storage tanks. The weather variables were air temperature, wind speed, humidity, and atmospheric stability. Sensitivity analysis was performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS program for dummy regression analysis. Sensitivity analysis showed that impact distance was not sensitive to humidity. Impact distance was most sensitive to atmospheric stability, and was also more sensitive to air temperature than wind speed, according to both the KORA and ALOHA tools. Moreover, the weather variables were more sensitive in rural conditions than in urban conditions, with the ALOHA tool being more influenced by weather variables than the KORA tool. Therefore, if using the ALOHA tool instead of the KORA tool in rural conditions, users should be careful not to cause any differences in impact distance due to input errors of weather variables, with the most sensitive one being atmospheric stability.

  18. Sensitivity of Numerical Weather Prediction to the Choice of Variable for Atmospheric Moisture Analysis into the Brazilian Global Model Data Assimilation System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thamiris B. Campos

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to the high spatial and temporal variability of atmospheric water vapor associated with the deficient methodologies used in its quantification and the imperfect physics parameterizations incorporated in the models, there are significant uncertainties in characterizing the moisture field. The process responsible for incorporating the information provided by observation into the numerical weather prediction is denominated data assimilation. The best result in atmospheric moisture depend on the correct choice of the moisture control variable. Normalized relative humidity and pseudo-relative humidity are the variables usually used by the main weather prediction centers. The objective of this study is to assess the sensibility of the Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies to choose moisture control variable in the data assimilation scheme. Experiments using these variables are carried out. The results show that the pseudo-relative humidity improves the variables that depend on temperature values but damage the moisture field. The opposite results show when the simulation used the normalized relative humidity. These experiments suggest that the pseudo-relative humidity should be used in the cyclical process of data assimilation and the normalized relative humidity should be used in non-cyclic process (e.g., nowcasting application in high resolution.

  19. Significance of settling model structures and parameter subsets in modelling WWTPs under wet-weather flow and filamentous bulking conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks...... (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D...... of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets...

  20. Significance of Demographic Variables for Targeting of Internet Advertisements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Stříteský

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Broad ad targeting options belong among the major advantages of internet advertising. Demographic targeting has become a standard option in most of on-line advertising systems. There are more ways how to target on-line advertisements by using demographic variables. In some cases, e.g., social media, we can use data from user registrations. Modern technologies enable to estimate the demographic profile of internet users using on behavioural data. The traditional approach to the demographic targeting of advertisements based on affinity targeting assumes the existence of internet servers with sufficient homogeneity of visits. The aim of this article is to identify the differences in the internet content consumption habits of Czech internet users based on gender and age. The analysis is based on the data from the extensive research which was carried out by the Netmonitor project, and which was provided for the purposes of this study by the Association for Internet Development (SPIR. The research results show that the traditional affinity-based method of targeting according to gender and age is still suitable on the Czech internet. On the other hand, in some cases, the traditional approach of ad targeting based on affinity leads to wasted ad impressions that miss defined target group.

  1. Marrying Step Feed with Secondary Clarifier Improvements to Significantly Increase Peak Wet Weather Treatment Capacity: An Integrated Methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daigger, Glen T; Siczka, John S; Smith, Thomas F; Frank, David A; McCorquodale, J A

    2017-08-01

      The need to increase the peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity of the City of Akron, Ohio, Water Reclamation Facility (WRF) provided the opportunity to test an integrated methodology for maximizing the peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity of activated sludge systems. An initial investigation, consisting of process modeling of the secondary treatment system and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the existing relatively shallow secondary clarifiers (3.3 and 3.7 m sidewater depth in 30.5 m diameter units), indicated that a significant increase in capacity from 416 000 to 684 000 m3/d or more was possible by adding step feed capabilities to the existing bioreactors and upgrading the existing secondary clarifiers. One of the six treatment units at the WRF was modified, and an extensive 2-year testing program was conducted to determine the total peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity achievable. The results demonstrated that a peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity approaching 974 000 m3/d is possible as long as secondary clarifier solids and hydraulic loadings could be separately controlled using the step feed capability provided. Excellent sludge settling characteristics are routinely experienced at the City of Akron WRF, raising concerns that the identified peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity could not be maintained should sludge settling characteristics deteriorate for some reason. Computational fluid dynamics analysis indicated that the impact of the deterioration of sludge settling characteristics could be mitigated and the identified peak wet weather secondary treatment capacity maintained by further use of the step feed capability provided to further reduce secondary clarifier solids loading rates at the identified high surface overflow rates. The results also demonstrated that effluent limits not only for total suspended solids (TSS) and five-day carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand (cBOD5) could be

  2. Evaluation of a variable speed limit system for wet and extreme weather conditions : phase 1 report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-01

    Weather presents considerable challenges to the highway system, both in terms of safety and operations. From a safety standpoint, weather (i.e. precipitation in the form of rain, snow or ice) reduces pavement friction, thus increasing the potential f...

  3. Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Mengersen, Kerrie; Milinovich, Gabriel; Hu, Wenbiao

    2017-06-01

    The effects of weather variability on seasonal influenza among different age groups remain unclear. The comparative study aims to explore the differences in the associations between weather variability and seasonal influenza, and growth rates of seasonal influenza epidemics among different age groups in Queensland, Australia. Three Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive models were fitted at the postal area level to quantify the relationships between seasonal influenza and monthly minimum temperature (MIT), monthly vapor pressure, school calendar pattern, and Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage for 3 age groups (Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission in younger (0-14) age groups. The growth rates of influenza at postal area level were relatively small for older (≥65) age groups in Queensland, Australia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  4. The Determination of Feasible Control Variables for Geoengineering and Weather Modification Based on the Theory of Sensitivity in Dynamical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergei A. Soldatenko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Geophysical cybernetics allows for exploring weather and climate modification (geoengineering as an optimal control problem in which the Earth’s climate system is considered as a control system and the role of controller is given to human operators. In mathematical models used in climate studies control actions that manipulate the weather and climate can be expressed via variations in model parameters that act as controls. In this paper, we propose the “instability-sensitivity” approach that allows for determining feasible control variables in geoengineering. The method is based on the sensitivity analysis of mathematical models that describe various types of natural instability phenomena. The applicability of this technique is illustrated by a model of atmospheric baroclinic instability since this physical mechanism plays a significant role in the general circulation of the atmosphere and, consequently, in climate formation. The growth rate of baroclinic unstable waves is taken as an indicator of control manipulations. The information obtained via calculated sensitivity coefficients is very beneficial for assessing the physical feasibility of methods of control of the large-scale atmospheric dynamics and for designing optimal control systems for climatic processes. It also provides insight into potential future changes in baroclinic waves, as a result of a changing climate.

  5. Environmental variables associated with vacationers' sun protection at warm weather resorts in North America

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andersen, Peter A.; Buller, David B.; Walkosz, Barbara J.; Scott, Michael D.; Beck, Larry; Liu, Xia; Abbott, Allison; Eye, Rachel

    2016-01-01

    Background: Vacationing at sunny, warm weather locations is a risk factor for excessive solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and skin cancer. Objectives: This study examined the association of environmental variables related to UV levels with vacationers' sun protection. Methods: Vacationers at 41 summer resorts in 17 states and 1 Canadian Province were interviewed (n=3531) and observed (N=4347) during 2012 and 2013. Clothing coverage, sunglasses, and shade use were observed. Use of sunscreen and sunburns were self-reported. Environmental information was recorded by research staff or acquired from ground stations and the weather service. Results: Temperature was positively associated with sun protection behaviors; however clothing coverage was negatively associated with temperature. Cloud cover was negatively associated with sun protection, with the exception of clothing coverage which was positively associated with it. Elevation showed a mixed pattern of associations with vacationer's sun protection. Latitude of a resort was negatively associated with most sun protection behaviors, such that sun protection increased at more southerly resorts. Similarly, the farther south a vacationer traveled to the resort, the less sun protection they employed. The UV index showed a weak, positive relationship with some sun protection behaviors even when controlling for temperature. Conclusions: Vacationers appeared aware that UV is higher at southern latitudes and may learn UV is intense when living in southern regions. However, many used temperature, an unreliable cue, to judge UV intensity and seemed to adjust clothing for warmth not UV protection. Efforts are needed to help individuals make more accurate sun safety decisions. - Highlights: • Vacationers poorly monitor and protect against environmental ultraviolet radiation (UVR). • On cloudy days vacationers fail to protect against UVR. • Temperature is erroneously used by vacationers as a marker for UVR

  6. Environmental variables associated with vacationers' sun protection at warm weather resorts in North America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersen, Peter A., E-mail: westone47@gmail.com [School of Communication, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Buller, David B.; Walkosz, Barbara J. [Klein Buendel, Inc., 1667 Cole Boulevard, Suite 225, Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Scott, Michael D. [Mikonics, Inc., 40 B Old Road South, Santa Fe, NM 87540 (United States); Beck, Larry [L. Robert Payne School of Hospitality and Tourism Management, San Diego State University, Room PSFA 445, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Liu, Xia [Klein Buendel, Inc., 1667 Cole Boulevard, Suite 225, Golden, CO 80401 (United States); Abbott, Allison [School of Communication, San Diego State University, 5500 Campanile Drive, San Diego, CA 92182 (United States); Eye, Rachel [Klein Buendel, Inc., 1667 Cole Boulevard, Suite 225, Golden, CO 80401 (United States)

    2016-04-15

    Background: Vacationing at sunny, warm weather locations is a risk factor for excessive solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation exposure and skin cancer. Objectives: This study examined the association of environmental variables related to UV levels with vacationers' sun protection. Methods: Vacationers at 41 summer resorts in 17 states and 1 Canadian Province were interviewed (n=3531) and observed (N=4347) during 2012 and 2013. Clothing coverage, sunglasses, and shade use were observed. Use of sunscreen and sunburns were self-reported. Environmental information was recorded by research staff or acquired from ground stations and the weather service. Results: Temperature was positively associated with sun protection behaviors; however clothing coverage was negatively associated with temperature. Cloud cover was negatively associated with sun protection, with the exception of clothing coverage which was positively associated with it. Elevation showed a mixed pattern of associations with vacationer's sun protection. Latitude of a resort was negatively associated with most sun protection behaviors, such that sun protection increased at more southerly resorts. Similarly, the farther south a vacationer traveled to the resort, the less sun protection they employed. The UV index showed a weak, positive relationship with some sun protection behaviors even when controlling for temperature. Conclusions: Vacationers appeared aware that UV is higher at southern latitudes and may learn UV is intense when living in southern regions. However, many used temperature, an unreliable cue, to judge UV intensity and seemed to adjust clothing for warmth not UV protection. Efforts are needed to help individuals make more accurate sun safety decisions. - Highlights: • Vacationers poorly monitor and protect against environmental ultraviolet radiation (UVR). • On cloudy days vacationers fail to protect against UVR. • Temperature is erroneously used by vacationers as a marker for UVR

  7. Significance of settling model structures and parameter subsets in modelling WWTPs under wet-weather flow and filamentous bulking conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Plósz, Benedek Gy

    2014-10-15

    Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D) SST model structures and parameters. We identify the critical sources of uncertainty in WWTP models through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using the Benchmark simulation model No. 1 in combination with first- and second-order 1-D SST models. The results obtained illustrate that the contribution of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets for WWTP model calibration, and propose optimal choice of 1-D SST models under different flow and settling boundary conditions. Additionally, the hydraulic parameters in the second-order SST model are found significant under dynamic wet-weather flow conditions. These results highlight the importance of developing a more mechanistic based flow-dependent hydraulic sub-model in second-order 1-D SST models in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Reference Evapotranspiration Retrievals from a Mesoscale Model Based Weather Variables for Soil Moisture Deficit Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashant K. Srivastava

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Reference Evapotranspiration (ETo and soil moisture deficit (SMD are vital for understanding the hydrological processes, particularly in the context of sustainable water use efficiency in the globe. Precise estimation of ETo and SMD are required for developing appropriate forecasting systems, in hydrological modeling and also in precision agriculture. In this study, the surface temperature downscaled from Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model is used to estimate ETo using the boundary conditions that are provided by the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF. In order to understand the performance, the Hamon’s method is employed to estimate the ETo using the temperature from meteorological station and WRF derived variables. After estimating the ETo, a range of linear and non-linear models is utilized to retrieve SMD. The performance statistics such as RMSE, %Bias, and Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE indicates that the exponential model (RMSE = 0.226; %Bias = −0.077; NSE = 0.616 is efficient for SMD estimation by using the Observed ETo in comparison to the other linear and non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.019–0.667; %Bias range = 2.821–6.894; NSE = 0.013–0.419 used in this study. On the other hand, in the scenario where SMD is estimated using WRF downscaled meteorological variables based ETo, the linear model is found promising (RMSE = 0.017; %Bias = 5.280; NSE = 0.448 as compared to the non-linear models (RMSE range = 0.022–0.707; %Bias range = −0.207–−6.088; NSE range = 0.013–0.149. Our findings also suggest that all the models are performing better during the growing season (RMSE range = 0.024–0.025; %Bias range = −4.982–−3.431; r = 0.245–0.281 than the non−growing season (RMSE range = 0.011–0.12; %Bias range = 33.073–32.701; r = 0.161–0.244 for SMD estimation.

  9. WEATHER ON OTHER WORLDS. III. A SURVEY FOR T DWARFS WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE OPTICAL VARIABILITY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heinze, Aren N.; Metchev, Stanimir; Kellogg, Kendra

    2015-01-01

    We have monitored 12 T dwarfs with the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope using an F814W filter (0.7-0.95 μm) to place in context the remarkable 10%-20% variability exhibited by the nearby T dwarf Luhman 16B in this wavelength regime. The motivation was the poorly known red optical behavior of T dwarfs, which have been monitored almost exclusively at infrared wavelengths, where variability amplitudes greater than 10% have been found to be very rare. We detect highly significant variability in two T dwarfs. The T2.5 dwarf 2MASS 13243559+6358284 shows consistent ∼17% variability on two consecutive nights. The T2 dwarf 2MASS J16291840+0335371 exhibits ∼10% variability that may evolve from night to night, similarly to Luhman 16B. Both objects were previously known to be variable in the infrared, but with considerably lower amplitudes. We also find evidence for variability in the T6 dwarf J162414.37+002915.6, but since it has lower significance, we conservatively refrain from claiming this object as a variable. We explore and rule out various telluric effects, demonstrating that the variations we detect are astrophysically real. We suggest that high-amplitude photometric variability for T dwarfs is likely more common in the red optical than at longer wavelengths. The two new members of the growing class of high-amplitude variable T dwarfs offer excellent prospects for further study of cloud structures and their evolution

  10. WEATHER ON OTHER WORLDS. III. A SURVEY FOR T DWARFS WITH HIGH-AMPLITUDE OPTICAL VARIABILITY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heinze, Aren N.; Metchev, Stanimir [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3800 (United States); Kellogg, Kendra, E-mail: aren.heinze@stonybrook.edu, E-mail: smetchev@uwo.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The University of Western Ontario, 1151 Richmond St, London, ON N6A 3K7 (Canada)

    2015-03-10

    We have monitored 12 T dwarfs with the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope using an F814W filter (0.7-0.95 μm) to place in context the remarkable 10%-20% variability exhibited by the nearby T dwarf Luhman 16B in this wavelength regime. The motivation was the poorly known red optical behavior of T dwarfs, which have been monitored almost exclusively at infrared wavelengths, where variability amplitudes greater than 10% have been found to be very rare. We detect highly significant variability in two T dwarfs. The T2.5 dwarf 2MASS 13243559+6358284 shows consistent ∼17% variability on two consecutive nights. The T2 dwarf 2MASS J16291840+0335371 exhibits ∼10% variability that may evolve from night to night, similarly to Luhman 16B. Both objects were previously known to be variable in the infrared, but with considerably lower amplitudes. We also find evidence for variability in the T6 dwarf J162414.37+002915.6, but since it has lower significance, we conservatively refrain from claiming this object as a variable. We explore and rule out various telluric effects, demonstrating that the variations we detect are astrophysically real. We suggest that high-amplitude photometric variability for T dwarfs is likely more common in the red optical than at longer wavelengths. The two new members of the growing class of high-amplitude variable T dwarfs offer excellent prospects for further study of cloud structures and their evolution.

  11. Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for different crops, production conditions, and response variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhao, Gang; Hoffmann, Holger; Bussel, Van L.G.J.; Enders, Andreas; Specka, Xenia; Sosa, Carmen; Yeluripati, Jagadeesh; Tao, Fulu; Constantin, Julie; Raynal, Helene; Teixeira, Edmar; Grosz, Balázs; Doro, Luca; Zhao, Zhigan; Nendel, Claas; Kiese, Ralf; Eckersten, Henrik; Haas, Edwin; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Wang, Enli; Kuhnert, Matthias; Trombi, Giacomo; Moriondo, Marco; Bindi, Marco; Lewan, Elisabet; Bach, Michaela; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Rötter, Reimund; Roggero, Pier Paolo; Wallach, Daniel; Cammarano, Davide; Asseng, Senthold; Krauss, Gunther; Siebert, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    We assessed the weather data aggregation effect (DAE) on the simulation of cropping systems for different crops, response variables, and production conditions. Using 13 processbased crop models and the ensemble mean, we simulated 30 yr continuous cropping systems for 2 crops (winter wheat and

  12. How reliable is the offline linkage of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    The aim for this research is to evaluate the ability of the offline linkage of Weather Research & Forecasting Model (WRF) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to produce hydrological, e.g. evaporation (ET), soil moisture (SM), runoff, and baseflow. First, the VIC mo...

  13. Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

    2012-01-01

    Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

  14. Dropouts, spreading, and squeezing of solar particle distributions and space weather variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthaeus, W. H.; Ruffolo, D. J.; Seripienlert, A.; Tooprakai, P.; Chuychai, P.

    2015-12-01

    In the past 15 years, observations and theories concerning dropouts of solar energetic particles have made it clear that the lateral spread of field lines and particles from a given location near the Sun is not a purely diffusive process. Particles of low energy from impulsive solar events exhibit abrupt changes in flux (dropouts) due to filamentation of magnetic connection from the Sun, indicating that magnetic flux tube-like structures at least partially persist to Earth orbit. Our simulations based on a corresponding spherical two-component model of Alfvénic (slab) and 2D magnetic fluctuations indicate that such particles mostly follow field lines, which spread over ˜25° at Earth orbit, and exhibit dropout features. On the other hand, gradual solar events are of practical interest because they can produce greatly enhanced high-energy ion fluxes, which can cause radiation damage to satellites, spacecraft, and astronauts. While gradual events do not exhibit dropouts in the above sense, we show that the distribution of high-energy (E≥1 GeV) protons is squeezed toward magnetic flux tube-like structures with a specific polarity due to the structures' conical shape. Since it is difficult to observationally determine what polarity of flux structure the Earth is in at a given time, this transport phenomenon contributes to event-to-event variability in ground level enhancements of GeV-range ions from solar storms, presenting a fundamental uncertainty in space weather prediction. Partially supported by the Thailand Research Fund (Grant BRG5880009), a Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics, a Research Fellowship from the Faculty of Science at Mahidol University, the U.S. NSF (AGS-1063439 and SHINE AGS-1156094), NASA (Heliophysics Theory NNX14AI63G, and LWS NNX15AB88G), and the Solar Probe Plus/ISIS project (D99031L).

  15. The link between eddy-driven jet variability and weather regimes in the North Atlantic-European sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madonna, E.; Li, C.; Grams, C. M.; Woollings, T.

    2017-12-01

    Understanding the variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet is key to unravelling the dynamics, predictability and climate change response of extratropical weather in the region. This study aims to 1) reconcile two perspectives on wintertime variability in the North Atlantic-European sector and 2) clarify their link to atmospheric blocking. Two common views of wintertime variability in the North Atlantic are the zonal-mean framework comprising three preferred locations of the eddy-driven jet (southern, central, northern), and the weather regime framework comprising four classical North Atlantic-European regimes (Atlantic ridge AR, zonal ZO, European/Scandinavian blocking BL, Greenland anticyclone GA). We use a k-means clustering algorithm to characterize the two-dimensional variability of the eddy-driven jet stream, defined by the lower tropospheric zonal wind in the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The first three clusters capture the central jet and northern jet, along with a new mixed jet configuration; a fourth cluster is needed to recover the southern jet. The mixed cluster represents a split or strongly tilted jet, neither of which is well described in the zonal-mean framework, and has a persistence of about one week, similar to the other clusters. Connections between the preferred jet locations and weather regimes are corroborated - southern to GA, central to ZO, and northern to AR. In addition, the new mixed cluster is found to be linked to European/Scandinavian blocking, whose relation to the eddy-driven jet was previously unclear. The results highlight the necessity of bridging from weather to climate scales for a deeper understanding of atmospheric circulation variability.

  16. Variability of extreme weather events over the equatorial East Africa, a case study of rainfall in Kenya and Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ongoma, Victor; Chen, Haishan; Omony, George William

    2018-01-01

    This study investigates the variability of extreme rainfall events over East Africa (EA), using indices from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis was based on observed daily rainfall from 23 weather stations, with length varying within 1961 and 2010. The indices considered are: wet days ( R ≥1 mm), annual total precipitation in wet days (PRCPTOT), simple daily intensity index (SDII), heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 10 mm), very heavy precipitation days ( R ≥ 20 mm), and severe precipitation ( R ≥ 50 mm). The non-parametric Mann-Kendall statistical analysis was carried out to identify trends in the data. Temporal precipitation distribution was different from station to station. Almost all indices considered are decreasing with time. The analysis shows that the PRCPTOT, very heavy precipitation, and severe precipitation are generally declining insignificantly at 5 % significant level. The PRCPTOT is evidently decreasing over Arid and Semi-Arid Land (ASAL) as compared to other parts of EA. The number of days that recorded heavy rainfall is generally decreasing but starts to rise in the last decade although the changes are insignificant. Both PRCPTOT and heavy precipitation show a recovery in trend starting in the 1990s. The SDII shows a reduction in most areas, especially the in ASAL. The changes give a possible indication of the ongoing climate variability and change which modify the rainfall regime of EA. The results form a basis for further research, utilizing longer datasets over the entire region to reduce the generalizations made herein. Continuous monitoring of extreme events in EA is critical, given that rainfall is projected to increase in the twenty-first century.

  17. Stochastic weather inputs for improved urban water demand forecasting: application of nonlinear input variable selection and machine learning methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilty, J.; Adamowski, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    Urban water supply systems are often stressed during seasonal outdoor water use as water demands related to the climate are variable in nature making it difficult to optimize the operation of the water supply system. Urban water demand forecasts (UWD) failing to include meteorological conditions as inputs to the forecast model may produce poor forecasts as they cannot account for the increase/decrease in demand related to meteorological conditions. Meteorological records stochastically simulated into the future can be used as inputs to data-driven UWD forecasts generally resulting in improved forecast accuracy. This study aims to produce data-driven UWD forecasts for two different Canadian water utilities (Montreal and Victoria) using machine learning methods by first selecting historical UWD and meteorological records derived from a stochastic weather generator using nonlinear input variable selection. The nonlinear input variable selection methods considered in this work are derived from the concept of conditional mutual information, a nonlinear dependency measure based on (multivariate) probability density functions and accounts for relevancy, conditional relevancy, and redundancy from a potential set of input variables. The results of our study indicate that stochastic weather inputs can improve UWD forecast accuracy for the two sites considered in this work. Nonlinear input variable selection is suggested as a means to identify which meteorological conditions should be utilized in the forecast.

  18. Weather variability influences color and phenolic content of pigmented baby leaf lettuces throughout the season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marin, Alicia; Ferreres, Federico; Barberá, Gonzalo G; Gil, María I

    2015-02-18

    The lack of consistency in homogeneous color throughout the season of pigmented baby leaf lettuce is a problem for growers because of the rejection of the product and consequently the economic loss. Changes in color as well as individual and total phenolic composition and content as a response to the climatic variables were studied following the analysis of three pigmented baby leaf lettuces over 16 consecutive weeks from February to May, which corresponded to the most important production season in winter in Europe. Color and phenolic content were significantly (P ≤ 0.001) affected by cultivar, harvest week, and climatic variables that occurred in the last week before harvest. Radiation and temperature showed positive correlations with the content of phenolic acids and flavonoids that increased in all three cultivars as the season progressed. Cyanidin-3-O-(6''-O-malonyl)-glucoside content showed positive correlations with temperature and radiation but only in Batavia cultivars whereas in red oak leaf the correlation was with cold temperatures. Regarding hue angle, a positive correlation was shown with the number of hours at temperatures lower than 7 °C. A relationship between hue angle and the content of anthocyanins was not possible to establish. These results suggest that the colorimetric measurement of color cannot be used as a good indicator of anthocyanin accumulation because other pigments such as chlorophylls and carotenoids may contribute as well to the leaf color of pigmented lettuce. This study provides information about the impact of genotype and environment interactions on the biosynthesis of phenolic compounds to explain the variability in the leaf color and product appearance.

  19. Efficient Estimation of Spectral Moments and the Polarimetric Variables on Weather Radars, Sonars, Sodars, Acoustic Flow Meters, Lidars, and Similar Active Remote Sensing Instruments

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A method for estimation of Doppler spectrum, its moments, and polarimetric variables on pulsed weather radars which uses over sampled echo components at a rate...

  20. The effects of daily weather variables on psychosis admissions to psychiatric hospitals.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    McWilliams, Stephen

    2012-08-02

    Several studies have noted seasonal variations in admission rates of patients with psychotic illnesses. However, the changeable daily meteorological patterns within seasons have never been examined in any great depth in the context of admission rates. A handful of small studies have posed interesting questions regarding a potential link between psychiatric admission rates and meteorological variables such as environmental temperature (especially heat waves) and sunshine. In this study, we used simple non-parametric testing and more complex ARIMA and time-series regression analysis to examine whether daily meteorological patterns (wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, rainfall, sunshine, sunlight and temperature) exert an influence on admission rates for psychotic disorders across 12 regions in Ireland. Although there were some weak but interesting trends for temperature, barometric pressure and sunshine, the meteorological patterns ultimately did not exert a clinically significant influence over admissions for psychosis. Further analysis is needed.

  1. The effects of daily weather variables on psychosis admissions to psychiatric hospitals

    Science.gov (United States)

    McWilliams, Stephen; Kinsella, Anthony; O'Callaghan, Eadbhard

    2013-07-01

    Several studies have noted seasonal variations in admission rates of patients with psychotic illnesses. However, the changeable daily meteorological patterns within seasons have never been examined in any great depth in the context of admission rates. A handful of small studies have posed interesting questions regarding a potential link between psychiatric admission rates and meteorological variables such as environmental temperature (especially heat waves) and sunshine. In this study, we used simple non-parametric testing and more complex ARIMA and time-series regression analysis to examine whether daily meteorological patterns (wind speed and direction, barometric pressure, rainfall, sunshine, sunlight and temperature) exert an influence on admission rates for psychotic disorders across 12 regions in Ireland. Although there were some weak but interesting trends for temperature, barometric pressure and sunshine, the meteorological patterns ultimately did not exert a clinically significant influence over admissions for psychosis. Further analysis is needed.

  2. The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

    2001-05-01

    Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

  3. Comparative study of airborne Alternaria conidia levels in two cities in Castilla-La Mancha (central Spain), and correlations with weather-related variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabariego, Silvia; Bouso, Veronica; Pérez-Badia, Rosa

    2012-01-01

    Alternaria conidia are among the airborne biological particles known to trigger allergic respiratory diseases. The presented paper reports on a study of seasonal variations in airborne Alternaria conidia concentrations in 2 cities in the central Spanish region of Castilla-La Mancha, Albacete and Toledo. The influence of weather-related variables on airborne conidia levels and distribution was also analysed. Sampling was carried out from 2008-2010 using a Hirst sampler, following the methodology established by the Spanish Aerobiology Network. Annual airborne Alternaria conidia counts were higher in Toledo (annual mean 3,936 conidia) than in Albacete (annual mean 2,268 conidia). Conidia were detected in the air throughout the year, but levels peaked between May-September. Considerable year-on-year variations were recorded both in total annual counts and in seasonal distribution. A significant positive correlation was generally found between mean daily Alternaria counts and both temperature and hours of sunlight, while a significant negative correlation was recorded for relative humidity, daily and cumulative rainfall, and wind speed. Regression models indicated that between 31%-52% of the variation in airborne Alternaria conidia concentrations could be explained by weather-related variables.

  4. Phytoplankton variability in Lake Fraijanes, Costa Rica, in response to local weather variation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo Umaña-Villalobos

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton species show a variety in morphology which is the result of adaptations to pelagic life including responses to fluctuations in water column dynamics driven by weather conditions. This has been reported in the oceans and in Northern temperate lakes. In order to observe whether tropical freshwater phytoplankton responds to seasonal variation in weather, the weekly variation in temperature of the water column and phytoplankton composition was studied in Lake Fraijanes, Costa Rica, a shallow (6.2m lake at 1 640m above sea level. A chain of data loggers for temperature was placed in the deepest point in the lake to register temperature every hour at four different depths, and phytoplankton samples were retrieved every week for a year. Additional monthly samples for nutrients were taken at two depths. Notwithstanding its shallowness, the lake developed a thermal gradient which kept the water column stratified for several months during dry season. Whole lake overturns occurred during cold spells with intense precipitation. Phytoplankton changed throughout the year mainly through a shift in dominant taxa. From September to February the lake was frequently mixed by rain storms and windy weather. At this time, phytoplankton was dominated by Chlorococcal green algae. From March to June, the lake was stratified and warmer. Phytoplankton became dominated by Cyanobateria, mainly colonial Chroococcales. The rainy season started again in May 2009. During June and July the lake started to mix intermittently during rain events and phytoplankton showed a brief increase in the contribution of Chlorococcales. These changes fitted well to a general model of phytoplankton succession based on functional groups identified according to their morphology and adaptations.

  5. Statistical Significance of the Contribution of Variables to the PCA Solution: An Alternative Permutation Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linting, Marielle; van Os, Bart Jan; Meulman, Jacqueline J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the statistical significance of the contribution of variables to the principal components in principal components analysis (PCA) is assessed nonparametrically by the use of permutation tests. We compare a new strategy to a strategy used in previous research consisting of permuting the columns (variables) of a data matrix…

  6. Variability of Neuronal Responses: Types and Functional Significance in Neuroplasticity and Neural Darwinism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chervyakov, Alexander V; Sinitsyn, Dmitry O; Piradov, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    HIGHLIGHTS We suggest classifying variability of neuronal responses as follows: false (associated with a lack of knowledge about the influential factors), "genuine harmful" (noise), "genuine neutral" (synonyms, repeats), and "genuine useful" (the basis of neuroplasticity and learning).The genuine neutral variability is considered in terms of the phenomenon of degeneracy.Of particular importance is the genuine useful variability that is considered as a potential basis for neuroplasticity and learning. This type of variability is considered in terms of the neural Darwinism theory. In many cases, neural signals detected under the same external experimental conditions significantly change from trial to trial. The variability phenomenon, which complicates extraction of reproducible results and is ignored in many studies by averaging, has attracted attention of researchers in recent years. In this paper, we classify possible types of variability based on its functional significance and describe features of each type. We describe the key adaptive significance of variability at the neural network level and the degeneracy phenomenon that may be important for learning processes in connection with the principle of neuronal group selection.

  7. Survey of French spine surgeons reveals significant variability in spine trauma practices in 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lonjon, G; Grelat, M; Dhenin, A; Dauzac, C; Lonjon, N; Kepler, C K; Vaccaro, A R

    2015-02-01

    In France, attempts to define common ground during spine surgery meetings have revealed significant variability in clinical practices across different schools of surgery and the two specialities involved in spine surgery, namely, neurosurgery and orthopaedic surgery. To objectively characterise this variability by performing a survey based on a fictitious spine trauma case. Our working hypothesis was that significant variability existed in trauma practices and that this variability was related to a lack of strong scientific evidence in spine trauma care. We performed a cross-sectional survey based on a clinical vignette describing a 31-year-old male with an L1 burst fracture and neurologic symptoms (numbness). Surgeons received the vignette and a 14-item questionnaire on the management of this patient. For each question, surgeons had to choose among five possible answers. Differences in answers across surgeons were assessed using the Index of Qualitative Variability (IQV), in which 0 indicates no variability and 1 maximal variability. Surgeons also received a questionnaire about their demographics and surgical experience. Of 405 invited spine surgeons, 200 responded to the survey. Five questions had an IQV greater than 0.9, seven an IQV between 0.5 and 0.9, and two an IQV lower than 0.5. Variability was greatest about the need for MRI (IQV=0.93), degree of urgency (IQV=0.93), need for fusion (IQV=0.92), need for post-operative bracing (IQV=0.91), and routine removal of instrumentation (IQV=0.94). Variability was lowest for questions about the need for surgery (IQV=0.42) and use of the posterior approach (IQV=0.36). Answers were influenced by surgeon specialty, age, experience level, and type of centre. Clinical practice regarding spine trauma varies widely in France. Little published evidence is available on which to base recommendations that would diminish this variability. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  8. The significance of climate change in the Netherlands. An analysis of historical and future trends (1901-2020) in weather conditions, weather extremes and temperature-related impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Visser, H.

    2005-07-01

    A rigorous statistical analysis reveals changes in Dutch climate that are statistically significant over the last century. Annually averaged temperatures have increased by 1.5 about 0.5 degrees Centigrade; the number of summer days has roughly doubled from 14 about 5 to 27 about 9 days; annual precipitation has increased by 120 about 100 mm; and the number of extremely wet days has increased by about 40%, from 19 about 3 to 26 about 3 days. Several other changes in Dutch climate, such as spring temperatures rising more rapidly than winter temperatures, the increase of the coldest temperature in each year by 0.9 degrees Centigrade and the annual maximum day sum of precipitation, turn out to be not (yet) statistically significant. The changes in Dutch climate have already led to several statistically significant impacts. The length of the growing season has increased by nearly a month, and the number of heating-degree days, a measure for the energy needed for the heating of houses and buildings, has decreased by 14 about 5%. Projections of future temperature increase in 2020 based on the statistical analysis closely resemble projections based on climate models: temperatures continue to increase from 10.4 about 0.4 degrees Centigrade in 2003 to 10.7 about 0.6 degrees Centigrade in 2010 and 11.1 about 1.0 degrees Centigrade in 2020. The energy needed for heating of houses and buildings is expected to decrease further. This warming effect is expected to lower projections of future Dutch greenhouse-gas emissions by 3.5 Mton CO2 equivalents, which is relevant in the context of commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. Finally, over the course of the 20th century the chance on an 'Elfstedentocht', an outdoor skating event in the Netherlands, has decreased from once every five years to once every ten years. Even though this impact change is not yet statistically significant, it resides 'on the edge' of significance: within a few years more evidence may

  9. European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator: External Validation, Variability, and Clinical Significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Gómez, Enrique; Carrasco-Valiente, Julia; Blanca-Pedregosa, Ana; Barco-Sánchez, Beatriz; Fernandez-Rueda, Jose Luis; Molina-Abril, Helena; Valero-Rosa, Jose; Font-Ugalde, Pilar; Requena-Tapia, Maria José

    2017-04-01

    To externally validate the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (RC) and to evaluate its variability between 2 consecutive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values. We prospectively catalogued 1021 consecutive patients before prostate biopsy for suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa). The risk of PCa and significant PCa (Gleason score ≥7) from 749 patients was calculated according to ERSPC-RC (digital rectal examination-based version 3 of 4) for 2 consecutive PSA tests per patient. The calculators' predictions were analyzed using calibration plots and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve). Cohen kappa coefficient was used to compare the ability and variability. Of 749 patients, PCa was detected in 251 (33.5%) and significant PCa was detected in 133 (17.8%). Calibration plots showed an acceptable parallelism and similar discrimination ability for both PSA levels with an area under the curve of 0.69 for PCa and 0.74 for significant PCa. The ERSPC showed 226 (30.2%) unnecessary biopsies with the loss of 10 significant PCa. The variability of the RC was 16% for PCa and 20% for significant PCa, and a higher variability was associated with a reduced risk of significant PCa. We can conclude that the performance of the ERSPC-RC in the present cohort shows a high similitude between the 2 PSA levels; however, the RC variability value is associated with a decreased risk of significant PCa. The use of the ERSPC in our cohort detects a high number of unnecessary biopsies. Thus, the incorporation of ERSPC-RC could help the clinical decision to carry out a prostate biopsy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Modeling the variability of solar radiation data among weather stations by means of principal components analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarzo, Manuel; Marti, Pau

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: →Principal components analysis was applied to R s data recorded at 30 stations. → Four principal components explain 97% of the data variability. → The latent variables can be fitted according to latitude, longitude and altitude. → The PCA approach is more effective for gap infilling than conventional approaches. → The proposed method allows daily R s estimations at locations in the area of study. - Abstract: Measurements of global terrestrial solar radiation (R s ) are commonly recorded in meteorological stations. Daily variability of R s has to be taken into account for the design of photovoltaic systems and energy efficient buildings. Principal components analysis (PCA) was applied to R s data recorded at 30 stations in the Mediterranean coast of Spain. Due to equipment failures and site operation problems, time series of R s often present data gaps or discontinuities. The PCA approach copes with this problem and allows estimation of present and past values by taking advantage of R s records from nearby stations. The gap infilling performance of this methodology is compared with neural networks and alternative conventional approaches. Four principal components explain 66% of the data variability with respect to the average trajectory (97% if non-centered values are considered). A new method based on principal components regression was also developed for R s estimation if previous measurements are not available. By means of multiple linear regression, it was found that the latent variables associated to the four relevant principal components can be fitted according to the latitude, longitude and altitude of the station where data were recorded from. Additional geographical or climatic variables did not increase the predictive goodness-of-fit. The resulting models allow the estimation of daily R s values at any location in the area under study and present higher accuracy than artificial neural networks and some conventional approaches

  11. Weather-induced variability of cesium 137 content in overground part of automorphic soil plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eliashevich, H.V.

    2000-01-01

    Daily variability of specific cesium 137 content in plants (12 species) from 30-km zone of Chernobyl NPP in summer time under the influence of climatic factors is shown. The rise of residual solar radiation (exceeding 2 MJ/m 2 in a day) and average diurnal temperature over 10 - 15 degrees centigrade (for different species) induced decrease in activity of overground phyto mass while precipitation takes opposite effect. A threshold and non-threshold type of cesium 137 accumulation in plants was recorded at higher daily fall-out. Critical sum of diurnal precipitation for the latter case in 5 species (Agropyron repens (L.) P.B., Bromus inermis Leyss., Origanum vulgare L., Festuca arundinacea Shreb., Acer plata noides L.) is in the range of 20 - 25 mm

  12. Understanding the significance variables for fabrication of fish gelatin nanoparticles by Plackett-Burman design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subara, Deni; Jaswir, Irwandi; Alkhatib, Maan Fahmi Rashid; Noorbatcha, Ibrahim Ali

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this experiment is to screen and to understand the process variables on the fabrication of fish gelatin nanoparticles by using quality-design approach. The most influencing process variables were screened by using Plackett-Burman design. Mean particles size, size distribution, and zeta potential were found in the range 240±9.76 nm, 0.3, and -9 mV, respectively. Statistical results explained that concentration of acetone, pH of solution during precipitation step and volume of cross linker had a most significant effect on particles size of fish gelatin nanoparticles. It was found that, time and chemical consuming is lower than previous research. This study revealed the potential of quality-by design in understanding the effects of process variables on the fish gelatin nanoparticles production.

  13. A Study of the Relationship between Weather Variables and Electric Power Demand inside a Smart Grid/Smart World Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Chinarro

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available One of the main challenges of today’s society is the need to fulfill at the same time the two sides of the dichotomy between the growing energy demand and the need to look after the environment. Smart Grids are one of the answers: intelligent energy grids which retrieve data about the environment through extensive sensor networks and react accordingly to optimize resource consumption. In order to do this, the Smart Grids need to understand the existing relationship between energy demand and a set of relevant climatic variables. All smart “systems” (buildings, cities, homes, consumers, etc. have the potential to employ their intelligence for self-adaptation to climate conditions. After introducing the Smart World, a global framework for the collaboration of these smart systems, this paper presents the relationship found at experimental level between a range of relevant weather variables and electric power demand patterns, presenting a case study using an agent-based system, and emphasizing the need to consider this relationship in certain Smart World (and specifically Smart Grid and microgrid applications.

  14. A Study of the Relationship between Weather Variables and Electric Power Demand inside a Smart Grid/Smart World Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, Luis; Baladrón, Carlos; Aguiar, Javier M.; Calavia, Lorena; Carro, Belén; Sánchez-Esguevillas, Antonio; Cook, Diane J.; Chinarro, David; Gómez, Jorge

    2012-01-01

    One of the main challenges of today's society is the need to fulfill at the same time the two sides of the dichotomy between the growing energy demand and the need to look after the environment. Smart Grids are one of the answers: intelligent energy grids which retrieve data about the environment through extensive sensor networks and react accordingly to optimize resource consumption. In order to do this, the Smart Grids need to understand the existing relationship between energy demand and a set of relevant climatic variables. All smart “systems” (buildings, cities, homes, consumers, etc.) have the potential to employ their intelligence for self-adaptation to climate conditions. After introducing the Smart World, a global framework for the collaboration of these smart systems, this paper presents the relationship found at experimental level between a range of relevant weather variables and electric power demand patterns, presenting a case study using an agent-based system, and emphasizing the need to consider this relationship in certain Smart World (and specifically Smart Grid and microgrid) applications.

  15. Significance of the impact of motion compensation on the variability of PET image features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carles, M.; Bach, T.; Torres-Espallardo, I.; Baltas, D.; Nestle, U.; Martí-Bonmatí, L.

    2018-03-01

    In lung cancer, quantification by positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) imaging presents challenges due to respiratory movement. Our primary aim was to study the impact of motion compensation implied by retrospectively gated (4D)-PET/CT on the variability of PET quantitative parameters. Its significance was evaluated by comparison with the variability due to (i) the voxel size in image reconstruction and (ii) the voxel size in image post-resampling. The method employed for feature extraction was chosen based on the analysis of (i) the effect of discretization of the standardized uptake value (SUV) on complementarity between texture features (TF) and conventional indices, (ii) the impact of the segmentation method on the variability of image features, and (iii) the variability of image features across the time-frame of 4D-PET. Thirty-one PET-features were involved. Three SUV discretization methods were applied: a constant width (SUV resolution) of the resampling bin (method RW), a constant number of bins (method RN) and RN on the image obtained after histogram equalization (method EqRN). The segmentation approaches evaluated were 40% of SUVmax and the contrast oriented algorithm (COA). Parameters derived from 4D-PET images were compared with values derived from the PET image obtained for (i) the static protocol used in our clinical routine (3D) and (ii) the 3D image post-resampled to the voxel size of the 4D image and PET image derived after modifying the reconstruction of the 3D image to comprise the voxel size of the 4D image. Results showed that TF complementarity with conventional indices was sensitive to the SUV discretization method. In the comparison of COA and 40% contours, despite the values not being interchangeable, all image features showed strong linear correlations (r  >  0.91, p\\ll 0.001 ). Across the time-frames of 4D-PET, all image features followed a normal distribution in most patients. For our patient cohort, the

  16. LASR-Guided Variability Subtraction: The Linear Algorithm for Significance Reduction of Stellar Seismic Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, Sarah; Myers, Sam; Ahlers, Johnathon; Barnes, Jason W.

    2017-10-01

    Stellar seismic activity produces variations in brightness that introduce oscillations into transit light curves, which can create challenges for traditional fitting models. These oscillations disrupt baseline stellar flux values and potentially mask transits. We develop a model that removes these oscillations from transit light curves by minimizing the significance of each oscillation in frequency space. By removing stellar variability, we prepare each light curve for traditional fitting techniques. We apply our model to $\\delta$-Scuti KOI-976 and demonstrate that our variability subtraction routine successfully allows for measuring bulk system characteristics using traditional light curve fitting. These results open a new window for characterizing bulk system parameters of planets orbiting seismically active stars.

  17. Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

    2009-12-01

    In this study we explore the potential for re-insurance schemes built on regional climatic forecasts. We focus on micro-insurance contracts indexed on precipitation in 9 villages in Kenya, Tanzania (Eastern Africa) and Malawi (Southern Africa), and analyze the precipitation patterns and payouts resulting from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inability to manage future climate risk represents a “poverty trap” for several African regions. Weather shocks can potentially destabilize not only household, but also entire countries. Governments in drought-prone countries, donors and relief agencies are becoming aware of the importance to develop an ex-ante risk management framework for weather risk. Joint efforts to develop innovative mechanisms to spread and pool risk such as microinsurance and microcredit are currently being designed in several developing countries. While ENSO is an important component in modulating the rainfall regime in tropical Africa, the micro-insurance experiments currently under development to address drought risk among smallholder farmers in this region do not take into account ENSO monitoring or forecasting yet. ENSO forecasts could be integrated in the contracts and reinsurance schemes could be designed at the continental scale taking advantage of the different impact of ENSO on different regions. ENSO is associated to a bipolar precipitation pattern in Southern and Eastern Africa. La Niña years (i.e. Cold ENSO Episodes) are characterized by dry climate in Eastern Africa and wet climate in Southern Africa. During El Niño (or Warm Episode) the precipitation dipole is inverted, and Eastern Africa experiences increased probability for above normal rainfall (Halpert and Ropelewski, 1992, Journal of Climate). Our study represents the first exercise in trying to include ENSO forecasts in micro weather index insurance contract design. We analyzed the contracts payouts with respect to climate variability. In particular (i) we simulated

  18. An objective daily Weather Type classification for Iberia since 1850; patterns, trends, variability and impact in precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.; Lorenzo, M. N.; Vaquero, J. M.; Gallego, M. C.; Valente, M. A.; Gimeno, L.

    2009-04-01

    the winter precipitation amount, observed on a daily basis. On the other hand, the three wettest WTs, namely the Cyclonic (C), South-westerly (SW) and Westerly (W) types, together representing roughly a third of all winter days, do account for more than 60% of the observed daily precipitation. It is shown that the large inter-annual variability of precipitation in both cities is highly related with the corresponding inter-annual variability of the wet WTs. Ansell, T. J. et al. (2006) Daily mean sea level pressure reconstructions for the European - North Atlantic region for the period 1850-2003, Journal of Climate, 19, 2717-2742, doi: 10.1175/JCLI3775.1 Huth R., Beck C., Philipp A., Demuzere M, Ustrnul Z, Cahynová M., Kyselý J., Tveito O.E. (2008) Classifications of atmospheric circulation patterns: recent advances and applications. Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146:, 105-152 Jones, P. D. , M. Hulme , K. R. Briffa. (1993) A comparison of Lamb circulation types with an objective classification scheme. Int. J. Climatol. 13: 655- 663. Lorenzo M.N., Taboada J.J. and Gimeno L. (2008) Links between circulation weather types and teleconnection patterns and their influence on precipitation patterns in Galicia (NW Spain). Int. J. Climatol. Published Online: Nov 12 2007 5:30AM DOI: 10.1002/joc.1646. Trigo R.M. and Da Camara C.C. (2000) Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 1559-1581.

  19. Comparative study of the reliability of MPPT algorithms for the crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules in variable weather conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abraham Dandoussou

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The crystalline silicon photovoltaic modules are widely used as power supply sources in the tropical areas where the weather conditions change abruptly. Fortunately, many MPPT algorithms are implemented to improve their performance. In the other hand, it is well known that these power supply sources are nonlinear dipoles and so, their intrinsic parameters may vary with the irradiance and the temperature. In this paper, the MPPT algorithms widely used, i.e. Perturb and Observe (P&O, Incremental Conductance (INC, Hill-Climbing (HC, are implemented using Matlab®/Simulink® model of a crystalline silicon photovoltaic module whose intrinsic parameters were extracted by fitting the I(V characteristic to experimental points. Comparing the simulation results, it is obvious that the variable step size INC algorithm has the best reliability than both HC and P&O algorithms for the near to real Simulink® model of photovoltaic modules. With a 60 Wp photovoltaic module, the daily maximum power reaches 50.76 W against 34.40 W when the photovoltaic parameters are fixed. Meanwhile, the daily average energy is 263 Wh/day against 195 Wh/day.

  20. Biological variability in biomechanical engineering research: Significance and meta-analysis of current modeling practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, Douglas; Julias, Margaret; Nauman, Eric

    2014-04-11

    Biological systems are characterized by high levels of variability, which can affect the results of biomechanical analyses. As a review of this topic, we first surveyed levels of variation in materials relevant to biomechanics, and compared these values to standard engineered materials. As expected, we found significantly higher levels of variation in biological materials. A meta-analysis was then performed based on thorough reviews of 60 research studies from the field of biomechanics to assess the methods and manner in which biological variation is currently handled in our field. The results of our meta-analysis revealed interesting trends in modeling practices, and suggest a need for more biomechanical studies that fully incorporate biological variation in biomechanical models and analyses. Finally, we provide some case study example of how biological variability may provide valuable insights or lead to surprising results. The purpose of this study is to promote the advancement of biomechanics research by encouraging broader treatment of biological variability in biomechanical modeling. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The "dirty weather" diaries of Reverend Richard Davis: insights about early colonial-era meteorology and climate variability for northern New Zealand, 1839-1851

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorrey, Andrew M.; Chappell, Petra R.

    2016-03-01

    Reverend Richard Davis (1790-1863) was a colonial-era missionary stationed in the Far North of New Zealand who was a key figure in the early efforts of the Church Mission Society. He kept meticulous meteorological records for the early settlements of Waimate North and Kaikohe, and his observations are preserved in a two-volume set in the Sir George Grey Special Collections in the Auckland Central Library. The Davis diary volumes are significant because they constitute some of the earliest land-based meteorological measurements that were continually chronicled for New Zealand. The diary measurements cover nine years within the 1839-1851 time span that are broken into two parts: 1839-1844 and 1848-1851. Davis' meteorological recordings include daily 9 a.m. and noon temperatures and midday pressure measurements. Qualitative comments in the diary note prevailing wind flow, wind strength, cloud cover, climate variability impacts, bio-indicators suggestive of drought, and notes on extreme weather events. "Dirty weather" comments scattered throughout the diary describe disturbed conditions with strong winds and driving rainfall. The Davis diary entries coincide with the end of the Little Ice Age (LIA) and they indicate southerly and westerly circulation influences and cooler winter temperatures were more frequent than today. A comparison of climate field reconstructions derived from the Davis diary data and tree-ring-based winter temperature reconstructions are supported by tropical coral palaeotemperature evidence. Davis' pressure measurements were corroborated using ship log data from vessels associated with iconic Antarctic exploration voyages that were anchored in the Bay of Islands, and suggest the pressure series he recorded are robust and can be used as "station data". The Reverend Davis meteorological data are expected to make a significant contribution to the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions across the Earth (ACRE) project, which feeds the major data

  2. Temporal variability of the quality of Taraxacum officinale seed progeny from the East-Ural radioactive trace: is there an interaction between low level radiation and weather conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozolotina, Vera N; Antonova, Elena V

    2017-03-01

    The multiple stressors, in different combinations, may impact differently upon seed quality, and low-level doses of radiation may enhance synergistic or antagonistic effects. During 1991-2014 we investigated the quality of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale s.l.) seed progeny growing under low-level radiation exposure at the East-Ural Radioactive Trace (EURT) area (result of the Kyshtym accident, Russia), and in plants from areas exposed to background radiation. The viability of the dandelion seed progeny was assessed according to chronic radiation exposure, accounting for the variability of weather conditions among years. Environmental factors (temperature, precipitation, and their ratio in different months) can modify the radiobiological effects. We found a wide range of possible responses to multiple stressors: inhibition, stimulation, and indifferent effects in different seasons. The intraspecific variability of the quality of dandelion seed progeny was greatly increased under conditions of low doses of chronic irradiation. Temperature was the most significant factor for seed progeny formation in the EURT zone, whereas the sums of precipitation and ratios of precipitation to temperature dominantly affected organisms from the background population.

  3. Weather forecast

    CERN Document Server

    Courtier, P

    1994-02-07

    Weather prediction is performed using the numerical model of the atmosphere evolution.The evolution equations are derived from the Navier Stokes equation for the adiabatic part but the are very much complicated by the change of phase of water, the radiation porocess and the boundary layer.The technique used operationally is described. Weather prediction is an initial value problem and accurate initial conditions need to be specified. Due to the small number of observations available (105 ) as compared to the dimension of the model state variable (107),the problem is largely underdetermined. Techniques of optimal control and inverse problems are used and have been adapted to the large dimension of our problem. our problem.The at mosphere is a chaotic system; the implication for weather prediction is discussed. Ensemble prediction is used operationally and the technique for generating initial conditions which lead to a numerical divergence of the subsequent forecasts is described.

  4. Identification of significant process variables for a flow-through supercritical water oxidation reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rossi, R.E.

    1992-05-01

    The effects of four process variables on the destruction efficiency of a flow-through supercritical water oxidation reactor were investigated. These process variables included: (1) reactor throughput (GPH), (2) concentration of the surrogate waste (% acetone), (3) maximum reactor tube-wall temperature (OC), and (4) applied stoichiometric oxygen. The analysis was conducted utilizing two-level factorial experiments, steepest ascent methods, and central composite designs. This experimental protocol assures efficient experimentation and allows for an empirical response surface model of the system to be developed. This experimentation identified a significant positive effect for stoichiometric oxygen applied and temperature variations between 400 to 500 degrees C. The increase in destruction efficiency due to stoichiometric 0 2 provides strong evidence that supercritical water oxidations are catalyzed by excess oxygen, and the strong temperature effect is a result of large increases in the kinetic rates for this temperature range. However, increasing temperature between 550 to 650 degrees C does not provide substantial increases in destruction efficiency. In addition, destruction efficiency is significantly unproved by increasing the Reynolds number and residence time. The destruction efficiency of the reactor is also dependent upon the initial concentration of surrogate waste. This concentration dependence may indicate first-order supercritical CO kinetics is inadequate for describing all waste types and reactor configurations. Alternatively, it may indicate reactant mixing, caused by local turbulence at the oxidation fronts of these higher concentration waste streams, results in higher destruction efficiencies

  5. Variability in anatomical features of human clavicle: Its forensic anthropological and clinical significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jagmahender Singh Sehrawat

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Bones can reflect the basic framework of human body and may provide valuable information about the biological identity of the deceased. They, often, survive the morphological alterations, taphonomic destructions, decay/mutilation and decomposition insults. In-depth knowledge of variations in clavicular shape, size and its dimensions is very important from both clinical (fixation of clavicular fractures using external or inter-medullary devices, designing orthopedic fixation devices as well as forensic anthropological perspectives. Human clavicle is the most frequently fractured bone of human skeleton, possessing high degree of variability in its anatomical, biomechanical and morphological features. Extended period of skeletal growth (up to third decade in clavicle imparts it an additional advantage for forensic identification purposes. In present study, five categories of clavicular features like lengths, diameters, angles, indices and robustness were examined to explore the suitability of collarbone for forensic and clinical purposes. For this purpose, 263 pairs of adult clavicles (195 Males and 68 Females were collected from autopsied cadavers and were studied for 13 anatomical features. Gender and occupational affiliations of cadavers were found to have significant influences on anatomical dimensions of their clavicles. Product index, weight and circumference of collarbone were found the best univariate variables, discriminating sex of more than 80% individuals. The best multivariate Function-I (DF: -17.315 + 0.054 CL-L+0.196 CC-R+0.184 DM-L could identify sex and occupation of 89.4% (89.2% Male and 89.7% Female and 65.4% individuals, respectively. All clavicular variables were found bilaterally asymmetric; left clavicles being significantly longer in length, lighter in weight, smooth in texture and less curved than the right side bones. Among non-metric traits, sub-clavian groove, nutrient foramina and ‘type’ of clavicle exhibited

  6. Variability of Blowing Dust Weather Frequency over Semi-Arid Areas of China (Baicheng, Jilin Province and Relationships with Climatic Factors During 1951 - 2006

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun-Fei Wu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyzed the variability of blowing dust weather frequency (BDWF and patterns in climatic factors over Baicheng for the period 1951 - 2006 in this study. The data showed that blowing dust over Baicheng occurs intensively during the spring and shows significant inter-decadal variability. One of the main findings is that the occurrence of blowing dust has significantly decreased after the mid-1980s. The mean wind speed (WS, diurnal temperature range (DTR, relative humidity (RH and precipitation at Baicheng during the spring show decreasing trends. The decreasing trends of the mean WS and DTR are significant at 99% confidence levels according to the t-test; the dataset also indicated a sharp decrease in WS occurred after the mid-1980s. The mean surface air temperature (SAT escalated in a fluctuating manner during 1951 - 2006. BDWF at Baicheng was significantly related to local WS, SAT and DTR during the spring [correlation coefficients (CCs are 0.41, -0.47 and 0.36, respectively]. The correlation between BDWF at Baicheng and selected climatic factors over the sand-dust source regions and transmission paths were also calculated. We found that BDWF is well correlated to the mean WS and SAT during the spring, with CCs of 0.45 and -0.48, respectively. The most likely causes for the dramatic decrease observed in BDWF after the mid-1980s were related to the adjustment of large-scale circulation patterns in response to a decrease of meridional temperature differences, the weakening of steering westerlies and the strengthening of downward motions that has occurred at the middle latitudes of eastern Eurasia in recent decades.

  7. WEATHER ON THE NEAREST BROWN DWARFS: RESOLVED SIMULTANEOUS MULTI-WAVELENGTH VARIABILITY MONITORING OF WISE J104915.57–531906.1AB

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Biller, Beth A.; Crossfield, Ian J. M.; Mancini, Luigi; Ciceri, Simona; Kopytova, Taisiya G.; Bonnefoy, Mickaël; Deacon, Niall R.; Schlieder, Joshua E.; Buenzli, Esther; Brandner, Wolfgang; Bailer-Jones, Coryn A. L.; Henning, Thomas; Goldman, Bertrand [Max-Planck-Institut für Astronomie, Königstuhl 17, D-69117 Heidelberg (Germany); Southworth, John [Astrophysics Group, Keele University, Staffordshire, ST5 5BG (United Kingdom); Allard, France; Homeier, Derek; Freytag, Bernd [Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon, Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon, 46 allée d' Italie, F-69364 Lyon cedex 07 (France); Greiner, Jochen [Max-Planck Institute for extraterrestrische Physik, D-85748 Garching, Giessenbachstr (Germany)

    2013-11-20

    We present two epochs of MPG/ESO 2.2 m GROND simultaneous six-band (r'i'z' JHK) photometric monitoring of the closest known L/T transition brown dwarf binary WISE J104915.57–531906.1AB. We report here the first resolved variability monitoring of both the T0.5 and L7.5 components. We obtained 4 hr of focused observations on the night of 2013 April 22 (UT), as well as 4 hr of defocused (unresolved) observations on the night of 2013 April 16 (UT). We note a number of robust trends in our light curves. The r' and i' light curves appear to be anti-correlated with z' and H for the T0.5 component and in the unresolved light curve. In the defocused dataset, J appears correlated with z' and H and anti-correlated with r' and i', while in the focused dataset we measure no variability for J at the level of our photometric precision, likely due to evolving weather phenomena. In our focused T0.5 component light curve, the K band light curve displays a significant phase offset relative to both H and z'. We argue that the measured phase offsets are correlated with atmospheric pressure probed at each band, as estimated from one-dimensional atmospheric models. We also report low-amplitude variability in i' and z' intrinsic to the L7.5 component.

  8. Non-stationarities significantly distort short-term spectral, symbolic and entropy heart rate variability indices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magagnin, Valentina; Bassani, Tito; Bari, Vlasta; Turiel, Maurizio; Porta, Alberto; Maestri, Roberto; Pinna, Gian Domenico

    2011-01-01

    The autonomic regulation is non-invasively estimated from heart rate variability (HRV). Many methods utilized to assess autonomic regulation require stationarity of HRV recordings. However, non-stationarities are frequently present even during well-controlled experiments, thus potentially biasing HRV indices. The aim of our study is to quantify the potential bias of spectral, symbolic and entropy HRV indices due to non-stationarities. We analyzed HRV series recorded in healthy subjects during uncontrolled daily life activities typical of 24 h Holter recordings and during predetermined levels of robotic-assisted treadmill-based physical exercise. A stationarity test checking the stability of the mean and variance over short HRV series (about 300 cardiac beats) was utilized to distinguish stationary periods from non-stationary ones. Spectral, symbolic and entropy indices evaluated solely over stationary periods were contrasted with those derived from all the HRV segments. When indices were calculated solely over stationary series, we found that (i) during both uncontrolled daily life activities and controlled physical exercise, the entropy-based complexity indices were significantly larger; (ii) during uncontrolled daily life activities, the spectral and symbolic indices linked to sympathetic modulation were significantly smaller and those associated with vagal modulation were significantly larger; (iii) while during uncontrolled daily life activities, the variance of spectral, symbolic and entropy rate indices was significantly larger, during controlled physical exercise, it was smaller. The study suggests that non-stationarities increase the likelihood to overestimate the contribution of sympathetic control and affect the power of statistical tests utilized to discriminate conditions and/or groups

  9. Predicting the outbreak of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanjing, China: a time-series model based on weather variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Sijun; Chen, Jiaping; Wang, Jianming; Wu, Zhuchao; Wu, Weihua; Xu, Zhiwei; Hu, Wenbiao; Xu, Fei; Tong, Shilu; Shen, Hongbing

    2017-10-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a significant public health issue in China and an accurate prediction of epidemic can improve the effectiveness of HFMD control. This study aims to develop a weather-based forecasting model for HFMD using the information on climatic variables and HFMD surveillance in Nanjing, China. Daily data on HFMD cases and meteorological variables between 2010 and 2015 were acquired from the Nanjing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively. A multivariate seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was developed and validated by dividing HFMD infection data into two datasets: the data from 2010 to 2013 were used to construct a model and those from 2014 to 2015 were used to validate it. Moreover, we used weekly prediction for the data between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2015 and leave-1-week-out prediction was used to validate the performance of model prediction. SARIMA (2,0,0)52 associated with the average temperature at lag of 1 week appeared to be the best model (R 2 = 0.936, BIC = 8.465), which also showed non-significant autocorrelations in the residuals of the model. In the validation of the constructed model, the predicted values matched the observed values reasonably well between 2014 and 2015. There was a high agreement rate between the predicted values and the observed values (sensitivity 80%, specificity 96.63%). This study suggests that the SARIMA model with average temperature could be used as an important tool for early detection and prediction of HFMD outbreaks in Nanjing, China.

  10. Temporal and spatial variability of Fe and Mn in perched groundwater flowing through weathered argillite underlying a steep forested hillslope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, H.; Bishop, J. K.

    2013-12-01

    Groundwater flowing through weathered bedrock dictates the runoff chemistry to streams in many catchments yet; its chemical evolution has been rarely documented. In particular, observations of Fe and Mn dynamics in groundwater are extremely challenging due to their high reactivity. To preserve the sample integrity for these elements we have developed a new sampling scheme that is applicable to autosamplers; a gravitational filtration system (GFS). GFS is capable of filtering samples by gravity within 30 minutes after the sampling. The GFS samples showed a good agreement with reference samples, which were collected following the standard sampling method for trace metals (i.e. immediate filtration and acidification). Since October 2011, GFS has been employed to monitor Fe and Mn in perched groundwater that moves through weathered argillite in an intensively instrumented hillslope (Rivendell), in the Angelo Coast Range Reserve. The study site is located at the headwaters of the Eel River, northern California, characterized by a typical coastal Californian Mediterranean climate. We collected groundwater samples at 3 wells along the hillslope (upslope (W10), mid-slope (W3) and near the creek (W1)) with 1-3 day intervals. Additionally, rainwater and throughfall samples were collected at a meadow near the hillslope and at the middle of the hillslope, respectively. The results from our observations indicate that Fe and Mn exhibit distinct spatial and temporal behavior under variable hydrologic conditions. The concentrations of Fe in throughfall vs. rainwater were similar (0.45μM vs. 0.49μM), but Mn in throughfall was 10-fold higher than that in rainwater (1.2 μM vs. 0.1 μM). In the early rainy season, W10's water table was deep (-18m) and Fe and Mn in W10 were 30-150 nM and 1-2 μM, respectively. As the rainy season proceeds, W10's water table rose by 4-6m, indicating the arrival of new water. At this time, Mn in W10 decreased to ~0.1 μM, synchronizing with the water

  11. Spatial variability in mycorrhizal hyphae and nutrient and water availability in a soil-weathered bedrock profile

    Science.gov (United States)

    L.M. Egerton-Warburton; R.C. Graham; K.R. Hubbert

    2003-01-01

    We documented the spatial distribution, abundance and molecular diversity of mycorrhizal hyphae and physical and chemical properties of soil-weathered bedrock in a chaparral community that experiences seasonal drought. Because plants in this community were known to rely on bedrock-stored water during the summer, the data were used to evaluate the potential role of...

  12. Fundamental statistical relationships between monthly and daily meteorological variables: Temporal downscaling of weather based on a global observational dataset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sommer, Philipp; Kaplan, Jed

    2016-04-01

    Accurate modelling of large-scale vegetation dynamics, hydrology, and other environmental processes requires meteorological forcing on daily timescales. While meteorological data with high temporal resolution is becoming increasingly available, simulations for the future or distant past are limited by lack of data and poor performance of climate models, e.g., in simulating daily precipitation. To overcome these limitations, we may temporally downscale monthly summary data to a daily time step using a weather generator. Parameterization of such statistical models has traditionally been based on a limited number of observations. Recent developments in the archiving, distribution, and analysis of "big data" datasets provide new opportunities for the parameterization of a temporal downscaling model that is applicable over a wide range of climates. Here we parameterize a WGEN-type weather generator using more than 50 million individual daily meteorological observations, from over 10'000 stations covering all continents, based on the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and Synoptic Cloud Reports (EECRA) databases. Using the resulting "universal" parameterization and driven by monthly summaries, we downscale mean temperature (minimum and maximum), cloud cover, and total precipitation, to daily estimates. We apply a hybrid gamma-generalized Pareto distribution to calculate daily precipitation amounts, which overcomes much of the inability of earlier weather generators to simulate high amounts of daily precipitation. Our globally parameterized weather generator has numerous applications, including vegetation and crop modelling for paleoenvironmental studies.

  13. On the significance of bell's inequality for hidden-variable theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Baere, W.

    1984-01-01

    It is explicitly shown that Bell's derivation of the generalized Bell inequality and its subsequent interpretation depend on an implicit hypothesis concerning the reproducibility of some set of hidden variables in different runs of the same experiment

  14. Cargas elétricas estruturais e variáveis de solos tropicais altamente intemperizados Structural and variable electric charges of highly weathered tropical soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscarlina Lucia dos Santos Weber

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Os solos tropicais altamente intemperizados apresentam teor significativo de colóides com carga elétrica variável. Entretanto, são poucas as referências em relação à quantificação destas cargas, principalmente em solos ácricos, que representam o extremo na escala de intemperismo. Neste estudo, foram determinadas as cargas permanentes e as variáveis de dois Latossolos Vermelhos acriférricos, um Latossolo Amarelo ácrico e um Latossolo Amarelo acriférrico, que foram comparados a um Nitossolo Vermelho eutroférrico, com carga predominantemente permanente. As amostras foram investigadas pelo método da adsorção do íon césio (Cs+, que mede a carga estrutural permanente (sigmao e baseia-se na preferência do Cs+ sobre o Li+ na superfície da siloxana de grupos de superfície ionizáveis de menor seletividade ao íon Cs+. A carga variável representou mais que 50 % da carga total dos solos estudados. Dois dos quatro Latossolos com propriedades ácricas exibiram quantidade significativa de carga permanente, provavelmente em razão da presença de vermiculita com hidróxi entrecamadas e clorita. A quantidade de carga permanente apresentada pelo Nitossolo foi até cinco vezes maior se comparada à dos Latossolos, o que pode ser atribuído à diferença na constituição mineralógica. O método da adsorção de Cs foi capaz de identificar teores significativos de carga permanente estrutural, mesmo em solos com baixo teor de minerais 2:1.Highly weathered tropical soils present high amount of colloids with variable electrical charge. However, there are few references related to the quantification of such charges, mainly in soils with acric attributes, which represent one of the extremes in the weathering scale. In this study permanent and variable charges were determined in four Oxisols and compared to an Alfisol with predominantly permanent charge. Samples were investigated using the Cs+ adsorption method, which measures the structural

  15. Clinical significance of mobile health assessed sleep duration and variability in bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Christopher N; Gershon, Anda; Eyler, Lisa T; Depp, Colin A

    2016-10-01

    Sleep disturbances are prevalent, persistent, and impairing features of bipolar disorder. However, the near-term and cumulative impact of the severity and variability of sleep disturbances on symptoms and functioning remains unclear. We examined self-reported daily sleep duration and variability in relation to mood symptoms, medication adherence, cognitive functioning, and concurrent daily affect. Forty-one outpatients diagnosed with bipolar disorder were asked to provide daily reports of sleep duration and affect collected via ecological momentary assessment with smartphones over eleven weeks. Measures of depressive and manic symptoms, medication adherence, and cognitive function were collected at baseline and concurrent assessment of affect were collected daily. Analyses examined whether sleep duration or variability were associated with baseline measures and changes in same-day or next-day affect. Greater sleep duration variability (but not average sleep duration) was associated with greater depressive and manic symptom severity, and lower medication adherence at baseline, and with lower and more variable ratings of positive affect and higher ratings of negative affect. Sleep durations shorter than 7-8 h were associated with lower same-day ratings of positive and higher same-day ratings of negative affect, however this did not extend to next-day affect. Greater cumulative day-to-day sleep duration variability, but not average sleep duration, was related to more severe mood symptoms, lower self-reported medication adherence and higher levels of negative affect. Bouts of short- or long-duration sleep had transient impact on affect. Day-to-day sleep variability may be important to incorporate into clinical assessment of sleep disturbances in bipolar disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeyringer, Marianne; Price, James; Fais, Birgit; Li, Pei-Hao; Sharp, Ed

    2018-05-01

    The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution power system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres.

  17. Red mud as a carbon sink: variability, affecting factors and environmental significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Chunhua; Ma, Yingqun; Lin, Chuxia

    2013-01-15

    The capacity of red mud to sequester CO(2) varied markedly due to differences in bauxite type, processing and disposal methods. Calcium carbonates were the dominant mineral phases responsible for the carbon sequestration in the investigated red mud types. The carbon sequestration capacity of red mud was not fully exploited due to shortages of soluble divalent cations for formation of stable carbonate minerals. Titanate and silicate ions were the two major oxyanions that appeared to strongly compete with carbonate ions for the available soluble Ca. Supply of additional soluble Ca and Mg could be a viable pathway for maximizing carbon sequestration in red mud and simultaneously reducing the causticity of red mud. It is roughly estimated that over 100 million tonnes of CO(2) have been unintentionally sequestered in red mud around the world to date through the natural weathering of historically produced red mud. Based on the current production rate of red mud, it is likely that some 6 million tonnes of CO(2) will be sequestered annually through atmospheric carbonation. If appropriate technologies are in place for incorporating binding cations into red mud, approximately 6 million tonnes of additional CO(2) can be captured and stored in the red mud while the hazardousness of red mud is simultaneously reduced. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Application of fuzzy – Neuro to model weather parameter variability impacts on electrical load based on long-term forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danladi Ali

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Long-term load forecasting provides vital information about future load and it helps the power industries to make decision regarding electrical energy generation and delivery. In this work, fuzzy – neuro model is developed to forecast a year ahead load in relation to weather parameter (temperature and humidity in Mubi, Adamawa State. It is observed that: electrical load increased with increase in temperature and relative humidity does not show notable effect on electrical load. The accuracy of the prediction is obtained at 98.78% with the corresponding mean absolute percentage error (MAPE of 1.22%. This confirms that fuzzy – neuro is a good tool for load forecasting. Keywords: Electrical load, Load forecasting, Fuzzy logic, Back propagation, Neuro-fuzzy, Weather parameter

  19. Improved estimation of heavy rainfall by weather radar after reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z-R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z-k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

  20. Variable Origin of the Superior Laryngeal Artery and Its Clinical Significance

    OpenAIRE

    Soubhagya R. Nayak1*, Ashwin Krishnamurthy2, Latha V. Prabhu2, Bhagath Kumar Potu3, Ishwar B. Bagoji4, Jiji PJ2 and Ganesh Kumar Chettiar2

    2011-01-01

    The superior laryngeal artery (SLA) is the dominant arterial supply of the laryngeal muscles, mucosa and glands. The purpose of the present study was to document the variable origin of the SLA in the carotid triangle. Although the variation in the SLA origin and morphology is important during the partial laryngectomy and reconstruction surgery of the larynx, the description of the SLA in modern literature is vague. The anatomy of SLA was studied in 37 adult South Indian preserved cadavers age...

  1. Intra and inter ‘local climate zone’ variability of air temperature as observed by crowdsourced citizen weather stations in Berlin, Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Fenner

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available A one-year data set for the year 2015 of near-surface air temperature (T$T$, crowdsourced from ‘Netatmo’ citizen weather stations (CWS in Berlin, Germany, and surroundings was analysed. The CWS data set, which has been quality-checked and filtered in a previous study, consists of T$T$ measurements from several hundred CWS. It was investigated (1 how CWS are distributed among urban and rural environments, as represented by ‘local climate zones’ (LCZ, (2 how LCZ are characterised in T$T$ along the annual cycle and concerning intra-LCZ T$T$ variability, and (3 if significant T$T$ differences between LCZ (ΔT$\\Delta T$ can be detected with CWS data. Further, it was investigated how the results from CWS compare to reference data from standard meteorological measurement stations. It can be shown that all ‘urban’ LCZ are covered by CWS, but only few CWS are located in ‘natural’ LCZ (e.g. forests or urban parks. CWS data along the annual cycle show generally good agreement to reference data, though for some LCZ monthly means between both data sets differ up to 1 K. Intra-LCZ T$T$ variability is particularly large during night-time. Statistically significant ΔT$\\Delta T$ can be detected with CWS data between various LCZ pairs, particularly for structurally dissimilar LCZ, and the results are in agreement with existing literature on LCZ or the urban heat island. Furthermore, annual mean ΔT$\\Delta T$ in CWS data agree well with reference data, thus showing the potential of CWS data for long-term studies. Several challenges related to crowdsourced CWS data need further investigation, namely missing meta data, the non-standard measurement locations, the imbalanced availability in time and space, and potentials to combine CWS and reference data to benefit from the main advantages of both, i.e., the large number of stations and the high quality of data, respectively.

  2. The Significance of the Spatial Variability of Rainfall on the Numerical Simulation of Urban Floods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurent Guillaume Courty

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The growth of urban population, combined with an increase of extreme events due to climate change call for a better understanding and representation of urban floods. The uncertainty in rainfall distribution is one of the most important factors that affects the watershed response to a given precipitation event. However, most of the investigations on this topic have considered theoretical scenarios, with little reference to case studies in the real world. This paper incorporates the use of spatially-variable precipitation data from a long-range radar in the simulation of the severe floods that impacted the city of Hull, U.K., in June 2007. This radar-based rainfall field is merged with rain gauge data using a Kriging with External Drift interpolation technique. The utility of this spatially-variable information is investigated through the comparison of computed flooded areas (uniform and radar against those registered by public authorities. Both results show similar skills at reproducing the real event, but differences in the total precipitated volumes, water depths and flooded areas are illustrated. It is envisaged that in urban areas and with the advent of higher resolution radars, these differences will be more important and call for further investigation.

  3. A statistical-dynamical scheme for reconstructing ocean forcing in the Atlantic. Part I: weather regimes as predictors for ocean surface variables

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cassou, Christophe; Minvielle, Marie; Terray, Laurent [CERFACS/CNRS, Climate Modelling and Global Change Team, Toulouse (France); Perigaud, Claire [JPL-NASA, Ocean Science Element, Pasadena, CA (United States)

    2011-01-15

    The links between the observed variability of the surface ocean variables estimated from reanalysis and the overlying atmosphere decomposed in classes of large-scale atmospheric circulation via clustering are investigated over the Atlantic from 1958 to 2002. Daily 500 hPa geopotential height and 1,000 hPa wind anomaly maps are classified following a weather-typing approach to describe the North Atlantic and tropical Atlantic atmospheric dynamics, respectively. The algorithm yields patterns that correspond in the extratropics to the well-known North Atlantic-Europe weather regimes (NAE-WR) accounting for the barotropic dynamics, and in the tropics to wind classes (T-WC) representing the alteration of the trades. 10-m wind and 2-m temperature (T2) anomaly composites derived from regime/wind class occurrence are indicative of strong relationships between daily large-scale atmospheric circulation and ocean surface over the entire Atlantic basin. High temporal correlation values are obtained basin-wide at low frequency between the observed fields and their reconstruction by multiple linear regressions with the frequencies of occurrence of both NAE-WR and T-WC used as sole predictors. Additional multiple linear regressions also emphasize the importance of accounting for the strength of the daily anomalous atmospheric circulation estimated by the combined distances to all regimes centroids in order to reproduce the daily to interannual variability of the Atlantic ocean. We show that for most of the North Atlantic basin the occurrence of NAE-WR generally sets the sign of the ocean surface anomaly for a given day, and that the inter-regime distances are valuable predictors for the magnitude of that anomaly. Finally, we provide evidence that a large fraction of the low-frequency trends in the Atlantic observed at the surface over the last 50 years can be traced back, except for T2, to changes in occurrence of tropical and extratropical weather classes. All together, our

  4. On the selection of significant variables in a model for the deteriorating process of facades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrat, C.; Gibert, V.; Casas, J. R.; Rapinski, J.

    2017-10-01

    In previous works the authors of this paper have introduced a predictive system that uses survival analysis techniques for the study of time-to-failure in the facades of a building stock. The approach is population based, in order to obtain information on the evolution of the stock across time, and to help the manager in the decision making process on global maintenance strategies. For the decision making it is crutial to determine those covariates -like materials, morphology and characteristics of the facade, orientation or environmental conditions- that play a significative role in the progression of different failures. The proposed platform also incorporates an open source GIS plugin that includes survival and test moduli that allow the investigator to model the time until a lesion taking into account the variables collected during the inspection process. The aim of this paper is double: a) to shortly introduce the predictive system, as well as the inspection and the analysis methodologies and b) to introduce and illustrate the modeling strategy for the deteriorating process of an urban front. The illustration will be focused on the city of L’Hospitalet de Llobregat (Barcelona, Spain) in which more than 14,000 facades have been inspected and analyzed.

  5. Significant and variable linear polarization during the prompt optical flash of GRB 160625B.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troja, E.; Lipunov, V. M.; Mundell, C. G.; Butler, N. R.; Watson, A. M.; Kobayashi, S.; Cenko, S. B.; Marshall, F. E.; Ricci, R.; Fruchter, A.; Wieringa, M. H.; Gorbovskoy, E. S.; Kornilov, V.; Kutyrev, A.; Lee, W. H.; Toy, V.; Tyurina, N. V.; Budnev, N. M.; Buckley, D. A. H.; González, J.; Gress, O.; Horesh, A.; Panasyuk, M. I.; Prochaska, J. X.; Ramirez-Ruiz, E.; Rebolo Lopez, R.; Richer, M. G.; Roman-Zuniga, C.; Serra-Ricart, M.; Yurkov, V.; Gehrels, N.

    2017-07-01

    Newly formed black holes of stellar mass launch collimated outflows (jets) of ionized matter that approach the speed of light. These outflows power prompt, brief and intense flashes of γ-rays known as γ-ray bursts (GRBs), followed by longer-lived afterglow radiation that is detected across the electromagnetic spectrum. Measuring the polarization of the observed GRB radiation provides a direct probe of the magnetic fields in the collimated jets. Rapid-response polarimetric observations of newly discovered bursts have probed the initial afterglow phase, and show that, minutes after the prompt emission has ended, the degree of linear polarization can be as high as 30 per cent - consistent with the idea that a stable, globally ordered magnetic field permeates the jet at large distances from the central source. By contrast, optical and γ-ray observations during the prompt phase have led to discordant and often controversial results, and no definitive conclusions have been reached regarding the origin of the prompt radiation or the configuration of the magnetic field. Here we report the detection of substantial (8.3 ± 0.8 per cent from our most conservative simulation), variable linear polarization of a prompt optical flash that accompanied the extremely energetic and long-lived prompt γ-ray emission from GRB 160625B. Our measurements probe the structure of the magnetic field at an early stage of the jet, closer to its central black hole, and show that the prompt phase is produced via fast-cooling synchrotron radiation in a large-scale magnetic field that is advected from the black hole and distorted by dissipation processes within the jet.

  6. Variability of Cenococcum colonization and its ecophysiological significance for young conifers at alpine-treeline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasselquist, Niles; Germino, Matthew J; McGonigle, Terence; Smith, William K

    2005-03-01

    * Plants establishing in environments that are marginal for growth could be particularly sensitive to mycorrhizal associations. We investigated ectomycorrhizal colonization and its significance for young conifers growing at, or above, their normal limits for growth, in the alpine-treeline ecotone. * Colonization of seedlings (treeline may include a below-ground, mycorrhizal component that complements previously reported effects of trees on the microclimate and ecophysiology of seedlings.

  7. Recent Variability Observations of Solar System Giant Planets: Fresh Context for Understanding Exoplanet and Brown Dwarf Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marley, Mark Scott

    2016-01-01

    Over the past several years a number of high cadence photometric observations of solar system giant planets have been acquired by various platforms. Such observations are of interest as they provide points of comparison to the already expansive set of brown dwarf variability observations and the small, but growing, set of exoplanet variability observations. By measuring how rapidly the integrated light from solar system giant planets can evolve, variability observations of substellar objects that are unlikely to ever be resolved can be placed in a fuller context. Examples of brown dwarf variability observations include extensive work from the ground (e.g., Radigen et al. 2014), Spitzer (e.g., Metchev et al. 2015), Kepler (Gizis et al. 2015), and HST (Yang et al. 2015).Variability has been measured on the planetary mass companion to the brown dwarf 2MASS 1207b (Zhou et al. 2016) and further searches are planned in thermal emission for the known directly imaged planets with ground based telescopes (Apai et al. 2016) and in reflected light with future space based telescopes. Recent solar system variability observations include Kepler monitoring of Neptune (Simon et al. 2016) and Uranus, Spitzer observations of Neptune (Stauffer et al. 2016), and Cassini observations of Jupiter (West et al. in prep). The Cassini observations are of particular interest as they measured the variability of Jupiter at a phase angle of approximately 60 deg, comparable to the viewing geometry expected for space based direct imaging of cool extrasolar Jupiters in reflected light. These solar system analog observations capture many of the characteristics seen in brown dwarf variability, including large amplitudes and rapid light curve evolution on timescales as short as a few rotation periods. Simon et al. (2016) attribute such variations at Neptune to a combination of large scale, stable cloud structures along with smaller, more rapidly varying, cloud patches. The observed brown dwarf and

  8. Contextual Variability in Personality from Significant-Other Knowledge and Relational Selves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan M Andersen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We argue that the self is intrinsically embedded in an interpersonal context such that it varies in IF-THEN terms, as the relational self. We have demonstrated that representations of the significant other and the relationship with that other are automatically activated by situational cues and that this activation affects both experienced and expressed aspects of the self and personality. Here, we expand on developments of the IF–THEN cognitive-affective framework of personality (CAPS, Mischel & Shoda, 1995, by extending it to the domain of interpersonal relationships at the dyadic level (Andersen & Chen, 2002. Going beyond Mischel’s early research (Mischel, 1968, our framework combines social cognition and learning theory with a learning-based psychodynamic approach, which provides the basis for extensive research on the social-cognitive process of transference and the relational self as it arises in everyday social interactions (Andersen & Cole, 1990, evidence from which contributes to a modern conceptualization of personality that emphasizes the centrality of the situation.

  9. Contextual Variability in Personality From Significant-Other Knowledge and Relational Selves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Susan M; Tuskeviciute, Rugile; Przybylinski, Elizabeth; Ahn, Janet N; Xu, Joy H

    2015-01-01

    We argue that the self is intrinsically embedded in an interpersonal context such that it varies in IF-THEN terms, as the relational self. We have demonstrated that representations of the significant other and the relationship with that other are automatically activated by situational cues and that this activation affects both experienced and expressed aspects of the self and personality. Here, we expand on developments of the IF-THEN cognitive-affective framework of personality system (Mischel and Shoda, 1995), by extending it to the domain of interpersonal relationships at the dyadic level (Andersen and Chen, 2002). Going beyond Mischel's early research (Mischel, 1968), our framework combines social cognition and learning theory with a learning-based psychodynamic approach, which provides the basis for extensive research on the social-cognitive process of transference and the relational self as it arises in everyday social interactions (Andersen and Cole, 1990), evidence from which contributes to a modern conceptualization of personality that emphasizes the centrality of the situation.

  10. Successfully Transitioning Science Research to Space Weather Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spann, James

    2012-01-01

    The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

  11. Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

    2017-10-01

    Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

  12. Modulation of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic climate by variable drawdown of atmospheric pCO2 from weathering of basaltic provinces on continents drifting through the equatorial humid belt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Kent

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The small reservoir of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (pCO2 that modulates climate through the greenhouse effect reflects a delicate balance between large fluxes of sources and sinks. The major long-term source of CO2 is global outgassing from sea-floor spreading, subduction, hotspot activity, and metamorphism; the ultimate sink is through weathering of continental silicates and deposition of carbonates. Most carbon cycle models are driven by changes in the source flux scaled to variable rates of ocean floor production, but ocean floor production may not be distinguishable from being steady since 180 Ma. We evaluate potential changes in sources and sinks of CO2 for the past 120 Ma in a paleogeographic context. Our new calculations show that decarbonation of pelagic sediments by Tethyan subduction contributed only modestly to generally high pCO2 levels from the Late Cretaceous until the early Eocene, and thus shutdown of this CO2 source with the collision of India and Asia at the early Eocene climate optimum at around 50 Ma was inadequate to account for the large and prolonged decrease in pCO2 that eventually allowed the growth of significant Antarctic ice sheets by around 34 Ma. Instead, variation in area of continental basalt terranes in the equatorial humid belt (5° S–5° N seems to be a dominant factor controlling how much CO2 is retained in the atmosphere via the silicate weathering feedback. The arrival of the highly weatherable Deccan Traps in the equatorial humid belt at around 50 Ma was decisive in initiating the long-term slide to lower atmospheric pCO2, which was pushed further down by the emplacement of the 30 Ma Ethiopian Traps near the equator and the southerly tectonic extrusion of SE Asia, an arc terrane that presently is estimated to account for 1/4 of CO2 consumption from all basaltic provinces that account for ~1/3 of the total CO2 consumption by continental silicate weathering (Dessert et al., 2003. A negative climate

  13. Correction of the significance level when attempting multiple transformations of an explanatory variable in generalized linear models

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background In statistical modeling, finding the most favorable coding for an exploratory quantitative variable involves many tests. This process involves multiple testing problems and requires the correction of the significance level. Methods For each coding, a test on the nullity of the coefficient associated with the new coded variable is computed. The selected coding corresponds to that associated with the largest statistical test (or equivalently the smallest pvalue). In the context of the Generalized Linear Model, Liquet and Commenges (Stat Probability Lett,71:33–38,2005) proposed an asymptotic correction of the significance level. This procedure, based on the score test, has been developed for dichotomous and Box-Cox transformations. In this paper, we suggest the use of resampling methods to estimate the significance level for categorical transformations with more than two levels and, by definition those that involve more than one parameter in the model. The categorical transformation is a more flexible way to explore the unknown shape of the effect between an explanatory and a dependent variable. Results The simulations we ran in this study showed good performances of the proposed methods. These methods were illustrated using the data from a study of the relationship between cholesterol and dementia. Conclusion The algorithms were implemented using R, and the associated CPMCGLM R package is available on the CRAN. PMID:23758852

  14. Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ralf Lauterbach

    Full Text Available Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008-2010 in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming.

  15. Datasets on abundance of common blossom thrips and weather variables in small-scale avocado orchards at Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J. Odanga

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Avocado, Persea americana Miller (Lauraceae, is an important fruit crop cultivated by small-holder farmers along Afrotropical highlands of Taita Hills in South-eastern Kenya and Mount Kilimanjaro in Northern Tanzania. The small-holder farmers in these East African regions generate substantial food and cash from avocado fruits. However, the avocado crop is faced with challenges of infestation by insect pests such as the common blossom thrips (Frankliniella schultzei Trybom which feeds on pollen and floral tissue thereby reducing productivity of the trees. Moreover, there is no information describing distribution patterns of Frankliniella schultzei and associated weather in East African avocado orchards despite the fact that small-scale farming is dependent on rainfall. This article was, therefore, initiated to provide dataset on abundance of Frankliniella schultzei from the avocado plants that relates with monthly rainfall and air temperatures at Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro. Frankliniella schultzei was collected using white coloured beating tray and camel brush whereas air temperatures (°C and rainfall (mm was recorded daily using automatic data loggers and rain gauge, respectively. The survey at the two transects commenced during peak flowering season of avocado crop in August up to end of harvesting period in July of the following year. Temporal datasets were generated by Kruskal-Wallis Chi-square test. Current temporal datasets presents strong baseline information specifically for Kenya and Tanzania government agencies to develop further agricultural strategies aimed at improving avocado farming within Taita Hills and Mount Kilimanjaro agro-ecosystems. Keywords: Frankliniella schultzei, Avocado, Weather variables, Taita Hills, Mount Kilimanjaro

  16. Impacts of extreme weather events and climate variability on carbon exchanges in an age-sequence of managed temperate pine forests from 2003 to 201

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arain, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    North American temperate forests are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and regional water resources. A large portion of these forests has traditionally been managed for timber production and other uses. The response of these forests, which are in different stages of development, to extreme weather events such as drought and heat stresses, climate variability and management regimes is not fully understood. In this study, eddy covariance flux measurements in an age sequence (77-, 42-, and 14-years old as of 2016) of white pine (Pinus strobus L.) plantation forests in southern Ontario, Canada are examined to determine the impact of heat and drought stresses and climate variability over a 14 year period (2003 to 2016). The mean annual net ecosystem productivity (NEP) values were 195 ± 87, 512 ±161 and 103 ± 103 g C m-2 year-1 in 77-, 42- and 14-year-old forests respectively, over the study period. The youngest forest became a net carbon sink in the fifth year of its growth. Air temperature was a dominant control on carbon fluxes and heat stress reduced photosynthesis much more as compared to ecosystem respiration in the growing season. A large decrease in annual NEP was observed during years experiencing heat waves. Drought stress had the strongest impact on the middle age forest which had the largest carbon sink and water demand. In contrast, young forest was more sensitive to heat stress, than drought. Severity of heat and drought stress impacts was highly dependent on the timing of these events. Simultaneous occurrence of heat and drought stress in the early growing season such as in 2012 and 2016 had a drastic negative impact on carbon balance in these forests due to plant-soil-atmosphere feedbacks. Future research should consider the timing of the extreme events, the stage of forest development and effects of extreme events on component fluxes. This research helps to assess the vulnerability of managed forests and their ecological and hydrological

  17. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

    2018-03-01

    There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events-space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

  19. Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanliss, James; Cornélissen, Germaine; Halberg, Franz; Brown, Denzel; Washington, Brien

    2018-03-01

    There is a strong connection between space weather and fluctuations in technological systems. Some studies also suggest a statistical connection between space weather and subsequent fluctuations in the physiology of living creatures. This connection, however, has remained controversial and difficult to demonstrate. Here we present support for a response of human physiology to forcing from the explosive onset of the largest of space weather events—space storms. We consider a case study with over 16 years of high temporal resolution measurements of human blood pressure (systolic, diastolic) and heart rate variability to search for associations with space weather. We find no statistically significant change in human blood pressure but a statistically significant drop in heart rate during the main phase of space storms. Our empirical findings shed light on how human physiology may respond to exogenous space weather forcing.

  20. Wacky Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabarre, Amy; Gulino, Jacqueline

    2013-01-01

    What do a leaf blower, water hose, fan, and ice cubes have in common? Ask the students who participated in an integrative science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (I-STEM) education unit, "Wacky Weather," and they will tell say "fun and severe weather"--words one might not have expected! The purpose of the unit…

  1. Weather Instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantley, L. Reed, Sr.; Demanche, Edna L.; Klemm, E. Barbara; Kyselka, Will; Phillips, Edwin A.; Pottenger, Francis M.; Yamamoto, Karen N.; Young, Donald B.

    This booklet presents some activities to measure various weather phenomena. Directions for constructing a weather station are included. Instruments including rain gauges, thermometers, wind vanes, wind speed devices, humidity devices, barometers, atmospheric observations, a dustfall jar, sticky-tape can, detection of gases in the air, and pH of…

  2. Weather and emotional state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spasova, Z.

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Given the proven effects of weather on the human organism, an attempt to examine its effects on a psychic and emotional level has been made. Emotions affect the bio-tonus, working ability and concentration, hence their significance in various domains of economic life, such as health care, education, transportation, tourism, etc. Data and methods The research has been made in Sofia City within a period of 8 months, using 5 psychological methods (Eysenck Personality Questionnaire (EPQ), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI), Test for Self-assessment of the emotional state (developed by Wessman and Ricks), Test for evaluation of moods and Test "Self-confidence - Activity - Mood" (developed by the specialists from the Military Academy in Saint Petersburg). The Fiodorov-Chubukov's complex-climatic method was used to characterize meteorological conditions because of the purpose to include in the analysis a maximal number of meteorological elements. 16 weather types are defined in dependence of the meteorological elements values according to this method. Abrupt weather changes from one day to another, defined by the same method, were considered as well. Results and discussions The results obtained by t-test show that the different categories of weather lead to changes in the emotional status, which indicates a character either positive or negative for the organism. The abrupt weather changes, according to expectations, have negative effect on human emotions but only when a transition to the cloudy weather or weather type, classified as "unfavourable" has been realized. The relationship between weather and human emotions is rather complicated since it depends on individual characteristics of people. One of these individual psychological characteristics, marked by the dimension "neuroticism", has a strong effect on emotional reactions in different weather conditions. Emotionally stable individuals are more "protected" to the weather influence on their emotions

  3. Waste glass weathering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bates, J.K.; Buck, E.C.

    1994-01-01

    The weathering of glass is reviewed by examining processes that affect the reaction of commercial, historical, natural, and nuclear waste glass under conditions of contact with humid air and slowly dripping water, which may lead to immersion in nearly static solution. Radionuclide release data from weathered glass under conditions that may exist in an unsaturated environment are presented and compared to release under standard leaching conditions. While the comparison between the release under weathering and leaching conditions is not exact, due to variability of reaction in humid air, evidence is presented of radionuclide release under a variety of conditions. These results suggest that both the amount and form of radionuclide release can be affected by the weathering of glass

  4. Great Historical Events that were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 9, the Year Leading to the Revolution of 1789 in France (II).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, J.; Dettwiller, J.

    1990-01-01

    This paper is an extension of an earlier paper (Neumann 1977) on historical events affected by the weather. More data are published herein on rainfall, pressure and temperature for spring-early summer 1788, when a severe drought struck France during anticyclonic conditions, leading to a crop failure. It is estimated that the grain harvest was 35%-40% below the mean for 1774-88. (The wine-grape harvest was even more catastrophic.) The shortfall led to increasingly high bread prices. The prices reached the highest level on 14 July 1789 (Bastille Day). Since workers spent about 55% of their income on bread and flour prior to 1788, bread riots had already broken out in August 1788. The number and violence of the riots tended to increase with time, causing a destabilization of public order.A meteorological factor of secondary importance was the harsh winter of 1788-89, which brought additional suffering to the lower classes. The price of heating materials rose, and water mills could not be operated because of the ice.Until April 1789 the numerous riots did not have, in most cases, anti-regime overtones. After May, however, the disturbances assumed political overtones, especially in Paris. This was due to agitation by the bourgeoisie who desired the abolition of the many privileges of the nobility and Church, and the lifting of restrictions on some economic activities. The bread riots, caused by the high bread prices (and, ultimately, by the drought), were used by the middle class for overthrowing the existing regime.In France of the 1700s, the number of poor depended on the price of bread which, first and foremost, was determined by the harvest.

  5. The clinical significance of detection to heart rate deceleration capacity and heart rate variability in patients with chronic heart failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiang-rong Zhou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To study the change of heart rate deceleration capacity ( DC and heart rate variability in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF and its relationship with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF. Methods: DC, LVEF, time and frequency domain parameters of HRV were measured in 66 patients with CHF and 34 healthy adults (control group by using 24h Holter recordings and Echocardiography. The standard deviation of normal R-R intervals( SDNN, squares of differences between adjacent NN intervals ( RMSSD,low frequency power( LFn and high frequency power( HFn and the changes of LVEF were compared between  the two groups,the relationship between DC,LVEF and HRV were studied in patients with CHF. Results: The median value of DC in the patients with CHF was significantly lower than that in control group( 3.1 ± 2.4 ms vs 7.2 ± 1.3 ms,P <0.01.Incidence of abnormal DC in the CHF group was 57.5%,which was significantly higher than that in the control group (P <0.01.The HRV index, including SDNN、RMSSD、LFn、HFn, in the CHF group was significantly lower than that in normal control group (P < 0.01. Significant positive correlation between HRV index and LVEF were confirmed (P < 0.01. Conclusions: DC and HRV index are lower in patients with CHF and have a good correlation with the left ventricular ejection fraction.

  6. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    OpenAIRE

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europ...

  7. Utilization of Live Localized Weather Information for Sustainable Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, J.; Usher, J.

    2010-09-01

    Authors: Jim Anderson VP, Global Network and Business Development WeatherBug® Professional Jeremy Usher Managing Director, Europe WeatherBug® Professional Localized, real-time weather information is vital for day-to-day agronomic management of all crops. The challenge for agriculture is twofold in that local and timely weather data is not often available for producers and farmers, and it is not integrated into decision-support tools they require. Many of the traditional sources of weather information are not sufficient for agricultural applications because of the long distances between weather stations, meaning the data is not always applicable for on-farm decision making processes. The second constraint with traditional weather information is the timeliness of the data. Most delivery systems are designed on a one-hour time step, whereas many decisions in agriculture are based on minute-by-minute weather conditions. This is especially true for decisions surrounding chemical and fertilizer application and frost events. This presentation will outline how the creation of an agricultural mesonet (weather network) can enable producers and farmers with live, local weather information from weather stations installed in farm/field locations. The live weather information collected from each weather station is integrated into a web-enabled decision support tool, supporting numerous on-farm agronomic activities such as pest management, or dealing with heavy rainfall and frost events. Agronomic models can be used to assess the potential of disease pressure, enhance the farmer's abilities to time pesticide applications, or assess conditions contributing to yield and quality fluctuations. Farmers and industry stakeholders may also view quality-assured historical weather variables at any location. This serves as a record-management tool for viewing previously uncharted agronomic weather events in graph or table form. This set of weather tools is unique and provides a

  8. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

    2017-10-01

    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  9. Climate, weather, and hops

    Science.gov (United States)

    As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

  10. Influence of weather factors on population dynamics of two lagomorph species based on hunting bag records

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rödel, H.; Dekker, J.J.A.

    2012-01-01

    Weather conditions can have a significant influence on short-term fluctuations of animal populations. In our study, which is based on time series of hunting bag records of up to 28 years from 26 counties of The Netherlands and Germany, we investigated the impact of different weather variables on

  11. Weather types in Sosnowiec (Poland during the period 1999-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dobrowolska Ksenia

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The study presents the structure of weather types for the city of Sosnowiec during the period 1999-2013. The analysis was carried out on the basis of daily thermal data (the average daily air temperature, the minimum and maximum daily air temperature, cloudiness and precipitation. The data was obtained from a meteorological station belonging to the Department of Climatology at the Faculty of Earth Sciences at the University of Silesia. Weather types were established according to weather type classification after Woś (2010. 48 weather types were specified on the basis of a combination of 3 selected meteorological elements (temperature, cloudiness, precipitation. The number of days in the year and the frequency of particular thermal weather types, weather subtype, weather classes and weather types were characterized, and the changeability of weather types was analyzed. Furthermore, sequences of days with specific weather types were described. The analysis conducted has lead to the conclusion that, during the research period, the weather structure for the city of Sosnowiec was characterized by a great number of weather types observed, with relatively low frequency of occurrence. Weather throughout the year was dominated by warm weather types (3--, 2--, 2--, with weather marked as 310 – very warm, moderately cloudy, without precipitation (12.9% recorded as the most frequent, followed by 221 – moderately warm, very cloudy, with precipitation (11.6%, and 210 – moderately warm, moderately cloudy, without precipitation (11.4%as the least frequent one. A diversification in the number of particular classification units in consecutive years of the examined 15-year period does not display significant variability. Short sequences of 2 and 3 days dominated the selected sequences of specific weather types.

  12. Ecological Momentary Assessment of Pain, Fatigue, Depressive, and Cognitive Symptoms Reveals Significant Daily Variability in Multiple Sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kratz, Anna L; Murphy, Susan L; Braley, Tiffany J

    2017-11-01

    To describe the daily variability and patterns of pain, fatigue, depressed mood, and cognitive function in persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). Repeated-measures observational study of 7 consecutive days of home monitoring, including ecological momentary assessment (EMA) of symptoms. Multilevel mixed models were used to analyze data. General community. Ambulatory adults (N=107) with MS recruited through the University of Michigan and surrounding community. Not applicable. EMA measures of pain, fatigue, depressed mood, and cognitive function rated on a 0 to 10 scale, collected 5 times a day for 7 days. Cognitive function and depressed mood exhibited more stable within-person patterns than pain and fatigue, which varied considerably within person. All symptoms increased in intensity across the day (all Pfatigue showing the most substantial increase. Notably, this diurnal increase varied by sex and age; women showed a continuous increase from wake to bedtime, whereas fatigue plateaued after 7 pm for men (wake-bed B=1.04, P=.004). For the oldest subgroup, diurnal increases were concentrated to the middle of the day compared with younger subgroups, which showed an earlier onset of fatigue increase and sustained increases until bed time (wake-3 pm B=.04, P=.01; wake-7 pm B=.03, P=.02). Diurnal patterns of cognitive function varied by education; those with advanced college degrees showed a more stable pattern across the day, with significant differences compared with those with bachelor-level degrees in the evening (wake-7 pm B=-.47, P=.02; wake-bed B=-.45, P=.04). Findings suggest that chronic symptoms in MS are not static, even over a short time frame; rather, symptoms-fatigue and pain in particular-vary dynamically across and within days. Incorporation of EMA methods should be considered in the assessment of these chronic MS symptoms to enhance assessment and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier

  13. Terminal weather information management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Alfred T.

    1990-01-01

    Since the mid-1960's, microburst/windshear events have caused at least 30 aircraft accidents and incidents and have killed more than 600 people in the United States alone. This study evaluated alternative means of alerting an airline crew to the presence of microburst/windshear events in the terminal area. Of particular interest was the relative effectiveness of conventional and data link ground-to-air transmissions of ground-based radar and low-level windshear sensing information on microburst/windshear avoidance. The Advanced Concepts Flight Simulator located at Ames Research Center was employed in a line oriented simulation of a scheduled round-trip airline flight from Salt Lake City to Denver Stapleton Airport. Actual weather en route and in the terminal area was simulated using recorded data. The microburst/windshear incident of July 11, 1988 was re-created for the Denver area operations. Six experienced airline crews currently flying scheduled routes were employed as test subjects for each of three groups: (1) A baseline group which received alerts via conventional air traffic control (ATC) tower transmissions; (2) An experimental group which received alerts/events displayed visually and aurally in the cockpit six miles (approx. 2 min.) from the microburst event; and (3) An additional experimental group received displayed alerts/events 23 linear miles (approx. 7 min.) from the microburst event. Analyses of crew communications and decision times showed a marked improvement in both situation awareness and decision-making with visually displayed ground-based radar information. Substantial reductions in the variability of decision times among crews in the visual display groups were also found. These findings suggest that crew performance will be enhanced and individual differences among crews due to differences in training and prior experience are significantly reduced by providing real-time, graphic display of terminal weather hazards.

  14. Weather swap as an instrument for weather risk management in wheat production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marković Todor

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A special type of weather derivatives are weather forwards and they exists mostly in the form of weather swaps. Hedging effectiveness in wheat production with and without weather swap was analyzed in this paper using stochastic dominance. The results show that the effect of risk reduction is significant using weather swap, but geographical- basis risk and production-related basis risk are important factor that reduce the utility of weather derivatives.

  15. Iron isotopic fractionation during continental weathering

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fantle, Matthew S.; DePaolo, Donald J.

    2003-10-01

    The biological activity on continents and the oxygen content of the atmosphere determine the chemical pathways through which Fe is processed at the Earth's surface. Experiments have shown that the relevant chemical pathways fractionate Fe isotopes. Measurements of soils, streams, and deep-sea clay indicate that the {sup 56}Fe/{sup 54}Fe ratio ({delta}{sup 56}Fe relative to igneous rocks) varies from +1{per_thousand} for weathering residues like soils and clays, to -3{per_thousand} for dissolved Fe in streams. These measurements confirm that weathering processes produce substantial fractionation of Fe isotopes in the modern oxidizing Earth surface environment. The results imply that biologically-mediated processes, which preferentially mobilize light Fe isotopes, are critical to Fe chemistry in weathering environments, and that the {delta}{sup 56}Fe of marine dissolved Fe should be variable and negative. Diagenetic reduction of Fe in marine sediments may also be a significant component of the global Fe isotope cycle. Iron isotopes provide a tracer for the influence of biological activity and oxygen in weathering processes through Earth history. Iron isotopic fractionation during weathering may have been smaller or absent in an oxygen-poor environment such as that of the early Precambrian Earth.

  16. Interrater and intrarater agreements of magnetic resonance imaging findings in the lumbar spine: significant variability across degenerative conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Michael C; Buerba, Rafael A; Long, William D; Blizzard, Daniel J; Lischuk, Andrew W; Haims, Andrew H; Grauer, Jonathan N

    2014-10-01

    agreement. However, when stratified by condition, absolute interrater agreement ranged from 65.1% to 92.0%. Disc hydration, disc space height, and bone marrow changes exhibited the lowest absolute interrater agreements. The absolute intrarater agreement had a narrower range, from 74.5% to 91.5%. Fleiss kappa coefficients ranged from fair-to-substantial agreement (0.282-0.618). Even in a study using standardized evaluation criteria, there was significant variability in the interrater and intrarater agreements of MRI in assessing different degenerative conditions of the lumbar spine. Clinicians should be aware of the condition-specific diagnostic limitations of MRI interpretation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Space Weather Monitoring for ISS Space Environments Engineering and Crew Auroral Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minow, Joseph I.; Pettit, Donald R.; Hartman, William A.

    2012-01-01

    The awareness of potentially significant impacts of space weather on spaceand ground ]based technological systems has generated a strong desire in many sectors of government and industry to effectively transform knowledge and understanding of the variable space environment into useful tools and applications for use by those entities responsible for systems that may be vulnerable to space weather impacts. Essentially, effectively transitioning science knowledge to useful applications relevant to space weather has become important. This talk will present proven methodologies that have been demonstrated to be effective, and how in the current environment those can be applied to space weather transition efforts.

  18. Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

  19. Brief Communication: Upper Air Relaxation in RACMO2 Significantly Improves Modelled Interannual Surface Mass Balance Variability in Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    van de Berg, W. J.; Medley, B.

    2016-01-01

    The Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO2) has been a powerful tool for improving surface mass balance (SMB) estimates from GCMs or reanalyses. However, new yearly SMB observations for West Antarctica show that the modelled interannual variability in SMB is poorly simulated by RACMO2, in contrast to ERA-Interim, which resolves this variability well. In an attempt to remedy RACMO2 performance, we included additional upper-air relaxation (UAR) in RACMO2. With UAR, the correlation to observations is similar for RACMO2 and ERA-Interim. The spatial SMB patterns and ice-sheet-integrated SMB modelled using UAR remain very similar to the estimates of RACMO2 without UAR. We only observe an upstream smoothing of precipitation in regions with very steep topography like the Antarctic Peninsula. We conclude that UAR is a useful improvement for regional climate model simulations, although results in regions with steep topography should be treated with care.

  20. IDENTIFICATION OF THOSE VARIABLES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON THE EXPECTED NUMBER OF DAYS OF STAYING IN THE CENTRE DEVELOPMENT REGION OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erika KULCSÁR

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available I started from the assumption that there are more variables that have a significant influence on the expected number of days of staying in the Centre Development Region. To identify those variables this paper includes the analysis of variance with two variables that are not interacting, in this case the dependent variable is the question "How many days did you plan to stay in Centre Development Region?" and the independent variables are: "What is the purpose of your stay?" "What is the highest level of education?". Given that there are cases when interactions occur between variables, I also analyzed the interaction effects between the two independent variables. The paper also includes an ANOVA analysis with three variables between which interactions relationships occur. After identifying the dependency relations between the variables I found that the inclusion of the third variable, namely the "Marital status" of respondents, adds value to the model. Following the results obtained by ANOVA analysis, I identified those socio-demographic characteristics that, in my opinion, companies that operate on tourist market in the Center Development Region should consider when fundamenting marketing strategies in tourism.

  1. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey to assess broad-scale response of the continent's most imperiled avian community, grassland birds, to weather variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorzo, Jessica; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Vavrus, Stephen J.

    2016-01-01

    Avian populations can respond dramatically to extreme weather such as droughts and heat waves, yet patterns of response to weather at broad scales remain largely unknown. Our goal was to evaluate annual variation in abundance of 14 grassland bird species breeding in the northern mixed-grass prairie in relation to annual variation in precipitation and temperature. We modeled avian abundance during the breeding season using North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for the U.S. Badlands and Prairies Bird Conservation Region (BCR 17) from 1980 to 2012. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to fit models and estimate the candidate weather parameters standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized temperature index (STI) for the same year and the previous year. Upland Sandpiper (Bartramia longicauda) responded positively to within-year STI (β = 0.101), and Baird's Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) responded negatively to within-year STI (β = −0.161) and positively to within-year SPI (β = 0.195). The parameter estimates were superficially similar (STI β = −0.075, SPI β = 0.11) for Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), but the best-selected model included an interaction between SPI and STI. The best model for both Eastern Kingbird (Tyrannus tyrannus) and Vesper Sparrow (Pooecetes gramineus) included the additive effects of within-year SPI (β = −0.032 and β = −0.054, respectively) and the previous-year's SPI (β = −0.057 and −0.02, respectively), although for Vesper Sparrow the lag effect was insignificant. With projected warmer, drier weather during summer in the Badlands and Prairies BCR, Baird's and Grasshopper sparrows may be especially threatened by future climate change.

  2. High-Frequency and Low-Frequency Variability in Stochastic Daily Weather Generator and Its Effect on Agricultural and Hydrologic Modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Dubrovský, Martin; Buchtele, Josef; Žalud, Z.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 63, 1-2 (2004), s. 145-179 ISSN 0165-0009 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/99/1561; GA AV ČR IAA3060002 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z3042911 Keywords : Weather Generator * Agricultural Modelling * Hydrologic Modelling Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 2.035, year: 2004

  3. National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... GIS International Weather Cooperative Observers Storm Spotters Tsunami Facts and Figures National Water Center WEATHER SAFETY NOAA Weather Radio StormReady Heat Lightning Hurricanes Thunderstorms Tornadoes Rip Currents Floods Winter Weather ...

  4. The impact of reflectivity correction and accounting for raindrop size distribution variability to improve precipitation estimation by weather radar for an extreme low-land mesoscale convective system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, Pieter; Leijnse, Hidde; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2014-11-01

    Between 25 and 27 August 2010 a long-duration mesoscale convective system was observed above the Netherlands, locally giving rise to rainfall accumulations exceeding 150 mm. Correctly measuring the amount of precipitation during such an extreme event is important, both from a hydrological and meteorological perspective. Unfortunately, the operational weather radar measurements were affected by multiple sources of error and only 30% of the precipitation observed by rain gauges was estimated. Such an underestimation of heavy rainfall, albeit generally less strong than in this extreme case, is typical for operational weather radar in The Netherlands. In general weather radar measurement errors can be subdivided into two groups: (1) errors affecting the volumetric reflectivity measurements (e.g. ground clutter, radar calibration, vertical profile of reflectivity) and (2) errors resulting from variations in the raindrop size distribution that in turn result in incorrect rainfall intensity and attenuation estimates from observed reflectivity measurements. A stepwise procedure to correct for the first group of errors leads to large improvements in the quality of the estimated precipitation, increasing the radar rainfall accumulations to about 65% of those observed by gauges. To correct for the second group of errors, a coherent method is presented linking the parameters of the radar reflectivity-rain rate (Z - R) and radar reflectivity-specific attenuation (Z - k) relationships to the normalized drop size distribution (DSD). Two different procedures were applied. First, normalized DSD parameters for the whole event and for each precipitation type separately (convective, stratiform and undefined) were obtained using local disdrometer observations. Second, 10,000 randomly generated plausible normalized drop size distributions were used for rainfall estimation, to evaluate whether this Monte Carlo method would improve the quality of weather radar rainfall products. Using the

  5. Using k-dependence causal forest to mine the most significant dependency relationships among clinical variables for thyroid disease diagnosis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LiMin Wang

    Full Text Available Numerous data mining models have been proposed to construct computer-aided medical expert systems. Bayesian network classifiers (BNCs are more distinct and understandable than other models. To graphically describe the dependency relationships among clinical variables for thyroid disease diagnosis and ensure the rationality of the diagnosis results, the proposed k-dependence causal forest (KCF model generates a series of submodels in the framework of maximum spanning tree (MST and demonstrates stronger dependence representation. Friedman test on 12 UCI datasets shows that KCF has classification accuracy advantage over the other state-of-the-art BNCs, such as Naive Bayes, tree augmented Naive Bayes, and k-dependence Bayesian classifier. Our extensive experimental comparison on 4 medical datasets also proves the feasibility and effectiveness of KCF in terms of sensitivity and specificity.

  6. Chromosomal radiosensitivity: a study of the chromosomal G2 assay in human blood lymphocytes indicating significant inter-individual variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smart, V.; Curwen, G.B.; Whitehouse, C.A.; Edwards, A.; Tawn, E.J.

    2003-01-01

    The G 2 chromosomal radiosensitivity assay is a technically demanding assay. To ensure that it is reproducible in our laboratory, we have examined the effects of storage and culture conditions by applying the assay to a group of healthy controls and determined the extent of intra- and inter-individual variations. Nineteen different individuals provided one or more blood samples resulting in a total of 57 successful tests. Multiple cultures from a single blood sample showed no statistically significant difference in the number of chromatid type aberrations between cultures. A 24 h delay prior to culturing the lymphocytes did not significantly affect the induced G 2 score. Intra-individual variation was not statistically significant in seven out of nine individuals. Inter-individual variation was highly statistically significant (P<0.001), indicating that there is a real difference between individuals in the response to radiation using this assay

  7. Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Binkowski

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

  8. Distinguishing the impacts of human activities and climate variability on runoff and sediment load change based on paired periods with similar weather conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wang, Fei; Hessel, Rudi; Mu, Xingmin; Maroulis, Jerry; Zhao, Guangju; Geissen, Violette; Ritsema, Coen

    2015-01-01

    Runoff and sediment loads from river basin are largely affected by the interplay of climate variability and human activities within the basin. However, distinguishing the impacts of climate variability and human activities would vastly improve our knowledge of water resources, climate variability

  9. Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

    2017-12-01

    Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

  10. Histological variability in the limb bones of the Asiatic wild ass and its significance for life history inferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nacarino-Meneses, Carmen; Jordana, Xavier; Köhler, Meike

    2016-01-01

    The study of bone growth marks (BGMs) and other histological traits of bone tissue provides insights into the life history of present and past organisms. Important life history traits like longevity or age at maturity, which could be inferred from the analysis of these features, form the basis for estimations of demographic parameters that are essential in ecological and evolutionary studies of vertebrates. Here, we study the intraskeletal histological variability in an ontogenetic series of Asiatic wild ass ( Equus hemionus ) in order to assess the suitability of several skeletal elements to reconstruct the life history strategy of the species. Bone tissue types, vascular canal orientation and BGMs have been analyzed in 35 cross-sections of femur, tibia and metapodial bones of 9 individuals of different sexes, ages and habitats. Our results show that the number of BGMs recorded by the different limb bones varies within the same specimen. Our study supports that the femur is the most reliable bone for skeletochronology, as already suggested. Our findings also challenge traditional beliefs with regard to the meaning of deposition of the external fundamental system (EFS). In the Asiatic wild ass, this bone tissue is deposited some time after skeletal maturity and, in the case of the femora, coinciding with the reproductive maturity of the species. The results obtained from this research are not only relevant for future studies in fossil Equus , but could also contribute to improve the conservation strategies of threatened equid species.

  11. Plausible Effect of Weather on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with a Coupled General Circulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zedong; Wan, Xiuquan

    2018-04-01

    The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global ocean circulation and the heat engine of the climate system. Through the use of a coupled general circulation model, this study examines the role of synoptic systems on the AMOC and presents evidence that internally generated high-frequency, synoptic-scale weather variability in the atmosphere could play a significant role in maintaining the overall strength and variability of the AMOC, thereby affecting climate variability and change. Results of a novel coupling technique show that the strength and variability of the AMOC are greatly reduced once the synoptic weather variability is suppressed in the coupled model. The strength and variability of the AMOC are closely linked to deep convection events at high latitudes, which could be strongly affected by the weather variability. Our results imply that synoptic weather systems are important in driving the AMOC and its variability. Thus, interactions between atmospheric weather variability and AMOC may be an important feedback mechanism of the global climate system and need to be taken into consideration in future climate change studies.

  12. HIV-1 infection during pregnancy and in children : significance of HIV-1 variability and the placental barrier

    OpenAIRE

    Casper, Charlotte

    2001-01-01

    With the global increase in human immunodeficiency virus 1 (HIV-1) infection in women of childbearing age, there has also been an alarming increase in the number of mother-to-child transmissions of HIV-1. Although antiretroviral therapy and Cesarian section have been demonstrated to significantly decrease the vertical transmission rate of , these interventions are not widely available in the developing world. Therefore, studies of the mechanisms of vertical transmission are ...

  13. Prognostic Significance of Blood Pressure Variability on Beat-to-Beat Monitoring After Transient Ischemic Attack and Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Alastair J S; Mazzucco, Sara; Li, Linxin; Rothwell, Peter M

    2018-01-01

    Visit-to-visit and day-to-day blood pressure (BP) variability (BPV) predict an increased risk of cardiovascular events but only reflect 1 form of BPV. Beat-to-beat BPV can be rapidly assessed and might also be predictive. In consecutive patients within 6 weeks of transient ischemic attack or nondisabling stroke (Oxford Vascular Study), BPV (coefficient of variation) was measured beat-to-beat for 5 minutes (Finometer), day-to-day for 1 week on home monitoring (3 readings, 3× daily), and on awake ambulatory BP monitoring. BPV after 1-month standard treatment was related (Cox proportional hazards) to recurrent stroke and cardiovascular events for 2 to 5 years, adjusted for mean systolic BP. Among 520 patients, 26 had inadequate beat-to-beat recordings, and 22 patients were in atrial fibrillation. Four hundred five patients had all forms of monitoring. Beat-to-beat BPV predicted recurrent stroke and cardiovascular events independently of mean systolic BP (hazard ratio per group SD, stroke: 1.47 [1.12-1.91]; P =0.005; cardiovascular events: 1.41 [1.08-1.83]; P =0.01), including after adjustment for age and sex (stroke: 1.47 [1.12-1.92]; P =0.005) and all risk factors (1.40 [1.00-1.94]; P =0.047). Day-to-day BPV was less strongly associated with stroke (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.29 [0.97-1.71]; P =0.08) but similarly with cardiovascular events (1.41 [1.09-1.83]; P =0.009). BPV on awake ambulatory BP monitoring was nonpredictive (stroke: 0.89 [0.59-1.35]; P =0.59; cardiovascular events: 1.08 [0.77-1.52]; P =0.65). Despite a weak correlation ( r =0.119; P =0.02), beat-to-beat BPV was associated with risk of recurrent stroke independently of day-to-day BPV (1.41 [1.05-1.90]; P =0.02). Beat-to-beat BPV predicted recurrent stroke and cardiovascular events, independently of mean systolic BP and risk factors but short-term BPV on ambulatory BP monitoring did not. Beat-to-beat BPV may be a useful additional marker of cardiovascular risk. © 2017 The Authors.

  14. Temporal associations between weather and headache: analysis by empirical mode decomposition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Albert C Yang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients frequently report that weather changes trigger headache or worsen existing headache symptoms. Recently, the method of empirical mode decomposition (EMD has been used to delineate temporal relationships in certain diseases, and we applied this technique to identify intrinsic weather components associated with headache incidence data derived from a large-scale epidemiological survey of headache in the Greater Taipei area. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study sample consisted of 52 randomly selected headache patients. The weather time-series parameters were detrended by the EMD method into a set of embedded oscillatory components, i.e. intrinsic mode functions (IMFs. Multiple linear regression models with forward stepwise methods were used to analyze the temporal associations between weather and headaches. We found no associations between the raw time series of weather variables and headache incidence. For decomposed intrinsic weather IMFs, temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, pressure, and maximal wind speed were associated with headache incidence during the cold period, whereas only maximal wind speed was associated during the warm period. In analyses examining all significant weather variables, IMFs derived from temperature and sunshine duration data accounted for up to 33.3% of the variance in headache incidence during the cold period. The association of headache incidence and weather IMFs in the cold period coincided with the cold fronts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using EMD analysis, we found a significant association between headache and intrinsic weather components, which was not detected by direct comparisons of raw weather data. Contributing weather parameters may vary in different geographic regions and different seasons.

  15. Great Historical Events That Were Significantly Affected by the Weather: Part 10, Crop Failure in Britain in 1799 and 1800 and the British Decision to Send a Naval Force to the Baltic Early in 1801.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neumann, J.; Kington, J.

    1992-02-01

    In 1799 and 1800, crop failures struck the British Isles. The crop failure of 1799 was due to the combined effects of the cold winter of 1798-99 and the cool and rainy growing season of the year. The summer was characterized by the prevalence of low-pressure systems resembling cyclonic weather patterns of the winter.The crop failure of 1800 was mainly due to a drought early in summer. In July there was either no rain at all (especially in the south) or the amounts were negligible. The general synoptic situation indicated an extension of the Azores High to Britain and beyond to central Europe. In the London area the pressure in duly was never below 1020 mb.The wheat harvests of 1799 and 1800 were about one-half and three-quarters of the average, respectively. The deficiencies could not be made up by imports, for, at least in 1799, the weather conditions were also unfavorable to grain production in the countries of northern Europe that were "traditional" exporters of grain to Britain. We estimate that in the "bread-consumption year", October 1799 to September 1800, harvest and imports accounted for but 60% of the required quantity of wheat, the principal ingredient of bread in England and Wales at the time. In consequence of the bread scarcity, there were sharp rises in the price of bread and in bread riots. Some of the slogans of the rioters made mention of the French Revolution.In parallel with the increasing scarcity of bread, diplomatic relations between Britain and Russia worsened from 1799 on. Its significance on the bread crisis, as well as a crisis of naval supplies, was that the Baltic ports through which the grain of the northern countries (East Prussia, Poland, and Russia) was channeled for Britain stood under the tsar's direct or indirect control. The strained relations between Britain and Russia peaked in November 1800. On 18 November, Tsar Paul I imposed an embargo on British ships and their crews. This embargo meant that the bread scarcity was to

  16. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  17. Unbiased proteomics analysis demonstrates significant variability in mucosal immune factor expression depending on the site and method of collection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenzie M Birse

    Full Text Available Female genital tract secretions are commonly sampled by lavage of the ectocervix and vaginal vault or via a sponge inserted into the endocervix for evaluating inflammation status and immune factors critical for HIV microbicide and vaccine studies. This study uses a proteomics approach to comprehensively compare the efficacy of these methods, which sample from different compartments of the female genital tract, for the collection of immune factors. Matching sponge and lavage samples were collected from 10 healthy women and were analyzed by tandem mass spectrometry. Data was analyzed by a combination of differential protein expression analysis, hierarchical clustering and pathway analysis. Of the 385 proteins identified, endocervical sponge samples collected nearly twice as many unique proteins as cervicovaginal lavage (111 vs. 61 with 55% of proteins common to both (213. Each method/site identified 73 unique proteins that have roles in host immunity according to their gene ontology. Sponge samples enriched for specific inflammation pathways including acute phase response proteins (p = 3.37×10(-24 and LXR/RXR immune activation pathways (p = 8.82×10(-22 while the role IL-17A in psoriasis pathway (p = 5.98×10(-4 and the complement system pathway (p = 3.91×10(-3 were enriched in lavage samples. Many host defense factors were differentially enriched (p<0.05 between sites including known/potential antimicrobial factors (n = 21, S100 proteins (n = 9, and immune regulatory factors such as serpins (n = 7. Immunoglobulins (n = 6 were collected at comparable levels in abundance in each site although 25% of those identified were unique to sponge samples. This study demonstrates significant differences in types and quantities of immune factors and inflammation pathways collected by each sampling technique. Therefore, clinical studies that measure mucosal immune activation or factors assessing HIV transmission should utilize

  18. The co registration of initial PET on the CT-radiotherapy reduces significantly the variabilities of anatomo-clinical target volume in the child hodgkin disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metwally, H.; Blouet, A.; David, I.; Rives, M.; Izar, F.; Courbon, F.; Filleron, T.; Laprie, A.; Plat, G.; Vial, J.

    2009-01-01

    It exists a great interobserver variability for the anatomo-clinical target volume (C.T.V.) definition in children suffering of Hodgkin disease. In this study, the co-registration of the PET with F.D.G. on the planning computed tomography has significantly lead to a greater coherence in the clinical target volume definition. (N.C.)

  19. Considerations in the weathering of wood-plastic composites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicole M. Stark

    2007-01-01

    During weathering, wood-plastic composites (WPCs) can fade and lose stiffness and strength. Weathering variables that induce these changes include exposure to UV light and water. Each variable degrades WPCs independently, but can also act synergistically. Recent efforts have highlighted the need to understand how WPCs weather, and to develop schemes for protection. The...

  20. The Influence of Weather Conditions on Joint Pain in Older People with Osteoarthritis: Results from the European Project on OSteoArthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timmermans, Erik J; Schaap, Laura A; Herbolsheimer, Florian; Dennison, Elaine M; Maggi, Stefania; Pedersen, Nancy L; Castell, Maria Victoria; Denkinger, Michael D; Edwards, Mark H; Limongi, Federica; Sánchez-Martínez, Mercedes; Siviero, Paola; Queipo, Rocio; Peter, Richard; van der Pas, Suzan; Deeg, Dorly J H

    2015-10-01

    This study examined whether daily weather conditions, 3-day average weather conditions, and changes in weather conditions influence joint pain in older people with osteoarthritis (OA) in 6 European countries. Data from the population-based European Project on OSteoArthritis were used. The American College of Rheumatology classification criteria were used to diagnose OA in older people (65-85 yrs). After the baseline interview, at 6 months, and after the 12-18 months followup interview, joint pain was assessed using 2-week pain calendars. Daily values for temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, relative humidity, and wind speed were obtained from local weather stations. Multilevel regression modelling was used to examine the pain-weather associations, adjusted for several confounders. The study included 810 participants with OA in the knee, hand, and/or hip. After adjustment, there were significant associations of joint pain with daily average humidity (B = 0.004, p weather conditions. Changes in weather variables between 2 consecutive days were not significantly associated with reported joint pain. The associations between pain and daily average weather conditions suggest that a causal relationship exist between joint pain and weather variables, but the associations between day-to-day weather changes and pain do not confirm causation. Knowledge about the relationship between joint pain in OA and weather may help individuals with OA, physicians, and therapists to better understand and manage fluctuations in pain.

  1. Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather, Signal Service and Weather Bureau (SWSSWB) Records primarily created by the United States Army Signal Service from 1819 until the paid and voluntary...

  2. Significant variables associated with epilepsy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheema, F.A.; Qayyum, K.; Ahmad, N.; Makhdoomi, A.; Safdar, A.; Asif, A.; Chaudhry, H.R.

    2003-01-01

    Objective: To study the characteristics of the epileptics and the risk factors contributing to the development of epilepsy. Results: Majority of the subjects were single (77.84%), 1st born among their siblings (25.95%), belonged to low social class (50.63%), and unemployed(25.31%). The major risk factors were family history of illness (23.52%) and positive medical problem around birth (12.66%). The presence of family history of illness, positive medical problem around birth and advanced maternal age at birth were associated with early onset of epilepsy. Vulnerability for the epilepsy also increases among hospital deliveries. Conclusion: Although the present study has identified various risk factors, yet the results need to be further confirmed through case-control studies. (author)

  3. Monthly Weather Review

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Supplements to the Monthly Weather Review publication. The Weather Bureau published the Monthly weather review Supplement irregularly from 1914 to 1949. The...

  4. Weather on Other Worlds. IV. Hα Emission and Photometric Variability Are Not Correlated in L0–T8 Dwarfs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles-Páez, Paulo A.; Metchev, Stanimir A. [Department of Physics and Astronomy and Centre for Planetary Science and Exploration, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 3K7 (Canada); Heinze, Aren [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Apai, Dániel, E-mail: ppaez@uwo.ca [The University of Arizona, Department of Astronomy, 933 North Cherry Avenue, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

    2017-05-10

    Recent photometric studies have revealed that surface spots that produce flux variations are present on virtually all L and T dwarfs. Their likely magnetic or dusty nature has been a much-debated problem, the resolution to which has been hindered by paucity of diagnostic multi-wavelength observations. To test for a correlation between magnetic activity and photometric variability, we searched for H α emission among eight L3–T2 ultra-cool dwarfs with extensive previous photometric monitoring, some of which are known to be variable at 3.6 μ m or 4.5 μ m. We detected H α only in the non-variable T2 dwarf 2MASS J12545393−0122474. The remaining seven objects do not show H α emission, even though six of them are known to vary photometrically. Combining our results with those for 86 other L and T dwarfs from the literature show that the detection rate of H α emission is very high (94%) for spectral types between L0 and L3.5 and much smaller (20%) for spectral types ≥L4, while the detection rate of photometric variability is approximately constant (30%–55%) from L0 to T8 dwarfs. We conclude that chromospheric activity, as evidenced by H α emission, and large-amplitude photometric variability are not correlated. Consequently, dust clouds are the dominant driver of the observed variability of ultra-cool dwarfs at spectral types, at least as early as L0.

  5. Weather on Other Worlds. IV. Hα Emission and Photometric Variability Are Not Correlated in L0–T8 Dwarfs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miles-Páez, Paulo A.; Metchev, Stanimir A.; Heinze, Aren; Apai, Dániel

    2017-01-01

    Recent photometric studies have revealed that surface spots that produce flux variations are present on virtually all L and T dwarfs. Their likely magnetic or dusty nature has been a much-debated problem, the resolution to which has been hindered by paucity of diagnostic multi-wavelength observations. To test for a correlation between magnetic activity and photometric variability, we searched for H α emission among eight L3–T2 ultra-cool dwarfs with extensive previous photometric monitoring, some of which are known to be variable at 3.6 μ m or 4.5 μ m. We detected H α only in the non-variable T2 dwarf 2MASS J12545393−0122474. The remaining seven objects do not show H α emission, even though six of them are known to vary photometrically. Combining our results with those for 86 other L and T dwarfs from the literature show that the detection rate of H α emission is very high (94%) for spectral types between L0 and L3.5 and much smaller (20%) for spectral types ≥L4, while the detection rate of photometric variability is approximately constant (30%–55%) from L0 to T8 dwarfs. We conclude that chromospheric activity, as evidenced by H α emission, and large-amplitude photometric variability are not correlated. Consequently, dust clouds are the dominant driver of the observed variability of ultra-cool dwarfs at spectral types, at least as early as L0.

  6. Weathering and landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkington, Alice V.; Phillips, Jonathan D.; Campbell, Sean W.

    2005-04-01

    In recognition of the fundamental control exerted by weathering on landscape evolution and topographic development, the 35th Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium was convened under the theme of Weathering and Landscape Evolution. The papers and posters presented at the conference imparted the state-of-the-art in weathering geomorphology, tackled the issue of scale linkage in geomorphic studies and offered a vehicle for interdisciplinary communication on research into weathering and landscape evolution. The papers included in this special issue are encapsulated here under the general themes of weathering mantles, weathering and relative dating, weathering and denudation, weathering processes and controls and the 'big picture'.

  7. Simulating spatial and temporally related fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac C. Grenfell; Mark Finney; Matt Jolly

    2010-01-01

    Use of fire behavior models has assumed an increasingly important role for managers of wildfire incidents to make strategic decisions. For fire risk assessments and danger rating at very large spatial scales, these models depend on fire weather variables or fire danger indices. Here, we describe a method to simulate fire weather at a national scale that captures the...

  8. SPAGETTA: a Multi-Purpose Gridded Stochastic Weather Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Huth, R.; Rotach, M. W.; Dabhi, H.

    2017-12-01

    SPAGETTA is a new multisite/gridded multivariate parametric stochastic weather generator (WG). Site-specific precipitation occurrence and amount are modelled by Markov chain and Gamma distribution, the non-precipitation variables are modelled by an autoregressive (AR) model conditioned on precipitation occurrence, and the spatial coherence of all variables is modelled following the Wilks' (2009) approach. SPAGETTA may be run in two modes. Mode 1: it is run as a classical WG, which is calibrated using weather series from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. Mode 2: the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying AR model, which produces the multi-site weather series. Optionally, the user may add the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the synthetic series. The contribution consists of following parts: (a) Model of the WG. (b) Validation of WG in terms of the spatial temperature and precipitation characteristics, including characteristics of spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells. (c) Results of the climate change impact experiment, in which the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and the effect on the above spatial validation indices is analysed. In this experiment, the WG is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulations (CORDEX database). (d) The second mode of operation will be

  9. Changes in fire weather distributions: effects on predicted fire behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucy A. Salazar; Larry S. Bradshaw

    1984-01-01

    Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the...

  10. [Effect of weather on odontogenic abscesses].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, G; Schmidseder, R

    1978-11-01

    An increased frequency of odontogenous abcesses was observed on certain days in the course of routine clinical practice. We therefore investigated the possibility of a statistically significant weather-related odontogenous soft-tissue purulence originating from chronic apical periodontitis. Medical reports of patients treated between 1970 and 1977 were used. Our study indicated that the frequency of odontogenous abcesses was significantly higher with cyclonic weather conditions, i.e., weather with low barometric pressure.

  11. Co-relation of variables as determined from panoramic radiograph and evaluating their significance in eruption of permanent mandibular third molar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kushal Amin

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of the Study: Purpose of the study is to investigate whether the variables associated with the permanent mandibular third molar (PMM3 and arch dimensions could be co-related and significantly differentiated between a fully erupted and mesially impacted PMM3 among a set of Indian population. Study Design: A standardized panoramic radiograph was taken of subjects of age 21 years and above. Patients with missing tooth from mandibular arch, subjects undergoing or having history of orthodontic treatment, subjects having disto-angular, horizontal or vertical impacted PMM3 were excluded from the study. Subjects were divided into 2 groups: (1 mesially impacted PMM3 and (2 vertically erupted PMM3. Following measurements were taken from acetate paper tracing of standardized panoramic radiograph: (1 Angulation of long axis of PMM3 to permanent mandibular second molar (theta (2 Angulation of PMM 3 to base of mandible (theta 2 (3 Gonial angle (theta 3 (4 Mesio-distal width of PMM 3 (5 Retro molar space. From these measurements Ganss ratio (retro molar space /PMM3 crown width. was calculated. Results and Conclusion: Results revealed that angle theta 1, angle theta 2, retro molar space and Ganss ratio were positively co-related and highly significant variables associated with the mesially and vertically erupted teeth as measured on panoramic radiograph. Using these variables a long-term study can be carried out to predict the ultimate position of lower third molar in the arch so that if there is a probability of the tooth being impacted at a later age, a prophylactic germectomy can be performed at an early age.

  12. Irrigation as an Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change: The Relative Influence of Groundwater and Canal Irrigation on Winter Crop Production and its Sensitivity to Weather Variability in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jain, M.; Fishman, R.; Mondal, P.; Galford, G. L.; Naeem, S.; Modi, V.; DeFries, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    India is a hotspot for food security issues over the upcoming decades, due to increasing population pressures, groundwater depletion, and climate change. Investing in additional irrigation infrastructure may bolster food security, however, the relative influence of different types of irrigation (e.g. groundwater versus canal) on agricultural production remains unclear. One reason that the relative impact of different irrigation strategies on agricultural production has not been analyzed across India is because national-scale data on crop production and the types of irrigation technologies used are typically available at too coarse of spatial and temporal resolutions to answer this question adequately. Thus, we develop a novel algorithm to map cropped area across India at a 1 x 1 km scale using MODIS satellite data, and link these high-resolution cropped area maps with village-level data (n = 600,000) on irrigation. This allowed us to assess the relative impact of groundwater (i.e. dug, shallow, and deep wells) and canal irrigation (i.e. surface lift and flow canals) on winter cropped area and its sensitivity to rainfall across India at the village-scale from 2000 to 2006. We find that deep well irrigation is both associated with the greatest amount of winter cropped area, and is also the least sensitive to monsoon and winter rainfall variability. However, the effectiveness of deep well irrigation varies across India, with the greatest benefits seen in the regions that are most at risk for losing groundwater as a possible source of irrigation over the upcoming decades (e.g. Northwest India). This work highlights the need to develop ways to use remaining groundwater more efficiently (e.g. drip irrigation, less water-intensive crops) given that canal irrigation is not an adequate substitute, particularly in the regions that are facing the greatest levels of groundwater depletion.

  13. Adverse Weather Evokes Nostalgia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Tilburg, Wijnand A P; Sedikides, Constantine; Wildschut, Tim

    2018-03-01

    Four studies examined the link between adverse weather and the palliative role of nostalgia. We proposed and tested that (a) adverse weather evokes nostalgia (Hypothesis 1); (b) adverse weather causes distress, which predicts elevated nostalgia (Hypothesis 2); (c) preventing nostalgia exacerbates weather-induced distress (Hypothesis 3); and (d) weather-evoked nostalgia confers psychological benefits (Hypothesis 4). In Study 1, participants listened to recordings of wind, thunder, rain, and neutral sounds. Adverse weather evoked nostalgia. In Study 2, participants kept a 10-day diary recording weather conditions, distress, and nostalgia. We also obtained meteorological data. Adverse weather perceptions were positively correlated with distress, which predicted higher nostalgia. Also, adverse natural weather was associated with corresponding weather perceptions, which predicted elevated nostalgia. (Results were mixed for rain.) In Study 3, preventing nostalgia (via cognitive load) increased weather-evoked distress. In Study 4, weather-evoked nostalgia was positively associated with psychological benefits. The findings pioneer the relevance of nostalgia as source of comfort in adverse weather.

  14. WEATHER INDEX- THE BASIS OF WEATHER DERIVATIVES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Botos Horia Mircea

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper approaches the subject of Weather Derivatives, more exactly their basic element the weather index. The weather index has two forms, the Heating Degree Day (HDD and the Cooling Degree Day (CDD. We will try to explain their origin, use and the relationship between the two forms of the index. In our research we started from the analysis of the weather derivatives and what they are based on. After finding out about weather index, we were interested in understanding exactly how they work and how they influence the value of the contract. On the national level the research in the field is scares, but foreign materials available. The study for this paper was based firstly on reading about Weather Derivative, and then going in the meteorogical field and determining the way by which the indices were determined. After this, we went to the field with interest in the indices, such as the energy and gas industries, and figured out how they determined the weather index. For the examples we obtained data from the weather index database, and calculated the value for the period. The study is made on a period of five years, in 8 cities of the European Union. The result of this research is that we can now understand better the importance of the way the indices work and how they influence the value of the Weather Derivatives. This research has an implication on the field of insurance, because of the fact that weather derivative are at the convergence point of the stock markets and the insurance market. The originality of the paper comes from the personal touch given to the theoretical aspect and through the analysis of the HDD and CDD index in order to show their general behaviour and relationship.

  15. Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Surface Weather Observation Collection consists primarily of hourly, synoptic, daily, and monthly forms submitted to the archive by the National Weather Service...

  16. Mariners Weather Log

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Mariners Weather Log (MWL) is a publication containing articles, news and information about marine weather events and phenomena, worldwide environmental impact...

  17. National Convective Weather Diagnostic

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Current convective hazards identified by the National Convective Weather Detection algorithm. The National Convective Weather Diagnostic (NCWD) is an automatically...

  18. Pilot Weather Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Aviation weather reports relayed from pilots to FAA air traffic controllers or National Weather Service personnel. Elements include sky cover, turbulence, wind...

  19. Winter Weather Emergencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

  20. Weather Radar Stations

    Data.gov (United States)

    Department of Homeland Security — These data represent Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) and Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR) weather radar stations within the US. The NEXRAD radar stations are...

  1. Daily Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These daily weather records were compiled from a subset of stations in the Global Historical Climatological Network (GHCN)-Daily dataset. A weather record is...

  2. Surface Weather Observations Hourly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Standard hourly observations taken at Weather Bureau/National Weather Service offices and airports throughout the United States. Hourly observations began during the...

  3. Radar Weather Observation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Radar Weather Observation is a set of archived historical manuscripts stored on microfiche. The primary source of these radar weather observations manuscript records...

  4. Land Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — METAR is the international standard code format for hourly surface weather observations. The acronym roughly translates from French as Aviation Routine Weather...

  5. Internet Weather Source

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

  6. Natural Weathering Exposure Station

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Corps of Engineers' Treat Island Natural Weathering Exposure Station is a long-term natural weathering facility used to study concrete durability. Located on the...

  7. Space Weather in Operation

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The “Space Weather in Operations” effort will provide on-demand and near-real time space weather event information to the Data Access Toolkit (DAT), which is the...

  8. Validation of three noninvasive laboratory variables to predict significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ado, Ayman A.; Al-Swat, Khalid; Azzam, N.; Al-Faleh, Faleh; Ahmed, S.

    2007-01-01

    We tested the clinical utility of the platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio, and the AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) score in predicting the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia. Liver biopsy procedures performed on chronic hepatitis C patients in our gastroenterology unit at King Khalid University Hospital were traced form records between 1998 to 2003. The hospital computer database was then accessed and detailed laboratory parameters obtained. By plotting receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), three selected models (platelet count, AST/ALT ratio and the APRI score) were compared in terms of the best variable to predict significant fibrosis. Two hundred and forty-six patients with hepatitis C were included in this analysis. Overall, 26% of patients had advanced fibrosis. When comparing the three above mentioned prediction models, APRI score was the one associated with the highest area under the curve (AUC) = 0.812 (95%Cl, 0.756-0.868) on the ROC curves, compared to the platelet count and AST/ALT ratio, which yielded an AUC of 0.783 (0.711-0.855) and 0.716 (0.642-0.789), respectively. The APRI score seemed to be the best predictive variable for the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis in Saudi hepatitis C patients. (author)

  9. Radiogenic Isotopes in Weathering and Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, J. D.; Erel, Y.

    2003-12-01

    as on the observation that radiogenic isotopes are sometimes preferentially released compared to nonradiogenic isotopes of the same element during acid leaching of rocks ( Hart and Tilton, 1966; Silver et al., 1984; Erel et al., 1991). A major finding of these investigations was that weathering often results in anomalously young Rb-Sr isochron ages, and discordant Pb-Pb ages. Rubidium is generally retained relative to strontium in whole-rock samples, and in some cases radiogenic strontium and lead are lost preferentially to common strontium and lead from weathered minerals.The most widely utilized of these isotopic systems is Rb-Sr, followed by U-Pb. The K-Ar system is not directly applicable to most studies of rock-water interaction, because argon is a noble gas, and upon release during mineral weathering mixes with atmospheric argon, limiting its usefulness as a tracer in most weathering applications. Argon and other noble gas isotopes have, however, found important applications in hydrology (see Chapter 5.15). Three other isotopic systems commonly used in geochronology and petrology include Sm-Nd, Lu-Hf, and Re-Os. These parent and daughter elements are in very low abundance and concentrated in trace mineral phases. Sm-Nd, Lu-Hf, and Re-Os have been used in a few weathering studies but have not been utilized extensively in investigations of weathering and hydrology.The decay of 87Rb to 87Sr has a half-life of 48.8 Gyr, and this radioactive decay results in natural variability in the 87Sr/86Sr ratio in rubidium-bearing minerals (e.g., Blum, 1995). The trace elements rubidium and strontium are geochemically similar to the major elements potassium and calcium, respectively. Therefore, minerals with high K/Ca ratios develop high 87Sr/86Sr ratios over geologic timescales. Once released into the hydrosphere, strontium retains its isotopic composition without significant fractionation by geochemical or biological processes, and is therefore a good tracer for sources and

  10. Cold-Weather Sports

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Videos for Educators Search English Español Cold-Weather Sports KidsHealth / For Teens / Cold-Weather Sports What's in this article? What to Do? Classes ... weather. What better time to be outdoors? Winter sports can help you burn calories, increase your cardiovascular ...

  11. Weatherization and Intergovernmental Program - Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2010-06-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety.

  12. Five case studies of multifamily weatherization programs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kinney, L; Wilson, T.; Lewis, G. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States); MacDonald, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States)

    1997-12-31

    The multifamily case studies that are the subject of this report were conducted to provide a better understanding of the approach taken by program operators in weatherizing large buildings. Because of significant variations in building construction and energy systems across the country, five states were selected based on their high level of multifamily weatherization. This report summarizes findings from case studies conducted by multifamily weatherization operations in five cities. The case studies were conducted between January and November 1994. Each of the case studies involved extensive interviews with the staff of weatherization subgrantees conducting multifamily weatherization, the inspection of 4 to 12 buildings weatherized between 1991 and 1993, and the analysis of savings and costs. The case studies focused on innovative techniques which appear to work well.

  13. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  14. Effects of Weather Variability on Crop Abandonment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelvin Mulungu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In Zambia, every year some parts of the maize fields are abandoned post-planting. Reasons for this are not clearly known. In this paper, we examine the influence of soil and climatic factors on crop abandonment using a six-year (2007–2012 panel data by modeling the planted-to-harvested ratio (a good indicator of crop abandonment using a fractional and linear approach. Therefore, for the first time, our study appropriately (as supported by the model specification tests that favour fractional probit over linear models the fractional nature of crop abandonment. Regression results, which are not very different between the two specifications, indicate that, more than anything, high rainfall immediately after planting and inadequate fertilizer are the leading determinants of crop abandonment. In the agro-ecological region where dry planting takes place, low temperature during planting months negatively affects the harvested area. The results have implications on the sustainability of farming systems in the face of a changing climate.

  15. The Epidemiological Significance and Temporal Stability of Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number of Tandem Repeats-Based Method Applied to Mycobacterium tuberculosis in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to validate the epidemiological significance and temporal stability of Mycobacterial Interspersed Repetitive Units-Variable Number of Tandem Repeats (MIRU-VNTR typing in a genetically and geographically diverse set of clinical isolates from patients diagnosed with pulmonary tuberculosis in China. Between 2010 and 2013, a total of 982 Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates were collected from four population-based investigations in China. Apart from the currently applied 24-locus MIRU-VNTR, six additional hypervariable loci were analyzed in order to validate the MIRU-VNTR combinations in terms of their epidemiological links, clustering time span, and paired geographic distance. In vitro temporal stability was analyzed for both individual MIRU-VNTR loci, and for several combinations of loci. In the present study, four MIRU-VNTR combinations, including the hypervariable loci 3820, 3232, 2163a, and 4120, were evaluated. All of these combinations obtained a Hunter-Gaston discriminatory index (HGDI value over 0.9900 with a reduced clustering proportion (from 32.0% to 25.6%. By comparing epidemiological links, clustering time span, and paired geographic distance, we found that the performances of the four MIRU-VNTR combinations were comparable to the insertion sequence 6110 restriction fragment length polymorphism (IS6110-RFLP, and significantly better than that of 24-locus MIRU-VNTR genotyping alone. The proportion of temporally stable loci ranged from 90.5% to 92.5% within the combined MIRU-VNTR genotyping, which is higher than IS6110-RFLP (85.4%. By adding four hypervariable loci to the standard 24-locus MIRU-VNTR genotyping, we obtained a high discriminatory power, stability and epidemiological significance. This algorithm could therefore be used to improve tuberculosis transmission surveillance and outbreak investigation in China.

  16. The impact of weather variation on energy consumption in residential houses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fikru, Mahelet G.; Gautier, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • There is evidence for significant intraday variation of energy use. • The sensitivity of energy use to weather variation falls via efficiency features. • The sensitivity of energy use to weather depends on the specific time of day/night. • High frequency data helps to accurately model the energy use-weather relationship. - Abstract: This paper studies the impact of weather variation on energy use by using 5-minutes interval weather–energy data obtained from two residential houses: house 1 is a conventional house with advanced efficiency features and house 2 is a net-zero solar house with relatively more advanced efficiency features. Our result suggests that energy consumption in house 2 is not as sensitive to changes in weather variables as the conventional house. On average, we find that a one unit increase in heating and cooling degree minutes increases energy use by about 9% and 5% respectively for house 1 and 5% and 4% respectively for house 2. In addition, our findings suggest that non-temperature variables such as solar radiation and humidity affect energy use where the sensitivity rates for house 2 are consistently lower than that of house 1. Furthermore our result suggests that the sensitivity of energy use to weather depends on the season and specific time of the day/night

  17. Weather delay costs to trucking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-11-01

    Estimates of the nations freight sector of transportation range to upwards of $600 billion of total gross domestic product with 70 percent of total value and 60 percent of total weight moving by truck. Weather-related delays can add significantly ...

  18. Weather models as virtual sensors to data-driven rainfall predictions in urban watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cozzi, Lorenzo; Galelli, Stefano; Pascal, Samuel Jolivet De Marc; Castelletti, Andrea

    2013-04-01

    Weather and climate predictions are a key element of urban hydrology where they are used to inform water management and assist in flood warning delivering. Indeed, the modelling of the very fast dynamics of urbanized catchments can be substantially improved by the use of weather/rainfall predictions. For example, in Singapore Marina Reservoir catchment runoff processes have a very short time of concentration (roughly one hour) and observational data are thus nearly useless for runoff predictions and weather prediction are required. Unfortunately, radar nowcasting methods do not allow to carrying out long - term weather predictions, whereas numerical models are limited by their coarse spatial scale. Moreover, numerical models are usually poorly reliable because of the fast motion and limited spatial extension of rainfall events. In this study we investigate the combined use of data-driven modelling techniques and weather variables observed/simulated with a numerical model as a way to improve rainfall prediction accuracy and lead time in the Singapore metropolitan area. To explore the feasibility of the approach, we use a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model as a virtual sensor network for the input variables (the states of the WRF model) to a machine learning rainfall prediction model. More precisely, we combine an input variable selection method and a non-parametric tree-based model to characterize the empirical relation between the rainfall measured at the catchment level and all possible weather input variables provided by WRF model. We explore different lead time to evaluate the model reliability for different long - term predictions, as well as different time lags to see how past information could improve results. Results show that the proposed approach allow a significant improvement of the prediction accuracy of the WRF model on the Singapore urban area.

  19. Clinical significance of power spectral analysis of heart rate variability and {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) myocardial imaging for assessing the severity of heart failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ishida, Yoshio; Fukuoka, Shuji; Shimotsu, Yoriko; Sasaki, Tatsuya; Kamakura, Shiro; Yasumura, Yoshio; Miyatake, Kunio; Shimomura, Katsuro [National Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka (Japan); Tani, Akihiro

    1997-04-01

    The significance of power spectral analysis of heart rate variability and of MIBG myocardial imaging to see the sympathetic nervous function was evaluated in patients with congestive heart failure due to dilated cardiomyopathy. Subjects were 10 normal volunteers and 8 patients with severity NYHA II; 10 normals and 25 patients with NYHA II and III; and 17 patients treated with a beta-blocker (metoprolol 5-40 mg). ECG was recorded with a portable ECG recorder for measuring RR intervals for 24 hr, which were applied for power spectral analysis. Early and delayed imagings with 111 MBq of {sup 123}I-MIBG were performed at 15 min and 4 hr, respectively, after its intravenous administration for acquisition of anterior planar and SPECT images. Myocardial blood flow SPECT was also done with 111 MBq of {sup 201}Tl given intravenously, and difference of total defect scores between MIBG and Tl images was computed. MIBG myocardial sympathetic nerve imaging in those patients was found useful to assess the severity of heart failure, to predict the risk patients for beta-blocker treatment and to assess the risk in complicated ventricular tachycardia. (K.H.)

  20. Weathering characteristics of the Lower Paleozoic black shale in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    permeability show that porosity increases significantly after weathering but permeability changes little. Furthermore, the ... As such, black shales usually have a high content of ... in the accumulation of soluble weathering phases, providing ...

  1. Space Weather Laboratory

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — The Space Weather Computational Laboratory is a Unix and PC based modeling and simulation facility devoted to research analysis of naturally occurring electrically...

  2. Cockpit weather information needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Charles H.

    1992-01-01

    The primary objective is to develop an advanced pilot weather interface for the flight deck and to measure its utilization and effectiveness in pilot reroute decision processes, weather situation awareness, and weather monitoring. Identical graphical weather displays for the dispatcher, air traffic control (ATC), and pilot crew should also enhance the dialogue capabilities for reroute decisions. By utilizing a broadcast data link for surface observations, forecasts, radar summaries, lightning strikes, and weather alerts, onboard weather computing facilities construct graphical displays, historical weather displays, color textual displays, and other tools to assist the pilot crew. Since the weather data is continually being received and stored by the airborne system, the pilot crew has instantaneous access to the latest information. This information is color coded to distinguish degrees of category for surface observations, ceiling and visibilities, and ground radar summaries. Automatic weather monitoring and pilot crew alerting is accomplished by the airborne computing facilities. When a new weather information is received, the displays are instantaneously changed to reflect the new information. Also, when a new surface or special observation for the intended destination is received, the pilot crew is informed so that information can be studied at the pilot's discretion. The pilot crew is also immediately alerted when a severe weather notice, AIRMET or SIGMET, is received. The cockpit weather display shares a multicolor eight inch cathode ray tube and overlaid touch panel with a pilot crew data link interface. Touch sensitive buttons and areas are used for pilot selection of graphical and data link displays. Time critical ATC messages are presented in a small window that overlays other displays so that immediate pilot alerting and action can be taken. Predeparture and reroute clearances are displayed on the graphical weather system so pilot review of weather along

  3. Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

  4. Variability of the Cyclin-Dependent Kinase 2 Flexibility Without Significant Change in the Initial Conformation of the Protein or Its Environment; a Computational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taghizadeh, Mohammad; Goliaei, Bahram; Madadkar-Sobhani, Armin

    2016-06-01

    Protein flexibility, which has been referred as a dynamic behavior has various roles in proteins' functions. Furthermore, for some developed tools in bioinformatics, such as protein-protein docking software, considering the protein flexibility, causes a higher degree of accuracy. Through undertaking the present work, we have accomplished the quantification plus analysis of the variations in the human Cyclin Dependent Kinase 2 (hCDK2) protein flexibility without affecting a significant change in its initial environment or the protein per se. The main goal of the present research was to calculate variations in the flexibility for each residue of the hCDK2, analysis of their flexibility variations through clustering, and to investigate the functional aspects of the residues with high flexibility variations. Using Gromacs package (version 4.5.4), three independent molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of the hCDK2 protein (PDB ID: 1HCL) was accomplished with no significant changes in their initial environments, structures, or conformations, followed by Root Mean Square Fluctuations (RMSF) calculation of these MD trajectories. The amount of variations in these three curves of RMSF was calculated using two formulas. More than 50% of the variation in the flexibility (the distance between the maximum and the minimum amount of the RMSF) was found at the region of Val-154. As well, there are other major flexibility fluctuations in other residues. These residues were mostly positioned in the vicinity of the functional residues. The subsequent works were done, as followed by clustering all hCDK2 residues into four groups considering the amount of their variability with respect to flexibility and their position in the RMSF curves. This work has introduced a new class of flexibility aspect of the proteins' residues. It could also help designing and engineering proteins, with introducing a new dynamic aspect of hCDK2, and accordingly, for the other similar globular proteins. In

  5. Topographic imprint on chemical weathering in deeply weathered soil-mantled landscapes (southern Brazil)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vanacker, Veerle; Schoonejans, Jerome; Ameijeiras-Marino, Yolanda; Opfergelt, Sophie; Minella, Jean

    2017-04-01

    The regolith mantle is defined as the thin layer of unconsolidated material overlaying bedrock that contributes to shape the Earth's surface. The development of the regolith mantle in a landscape is the result of in-situ weathering, atmospheric input and downhill transport of weathering products. Bedrock weathering - the physical and chemical transformations of rock to soil - contributes to the vertical development of the regolith layer through downward propagation of the weathering front. Lateral transport of soil particles, aggregates and solutes by diffusive and concentrated particle and solute fluxes result in lateral redistribution of weathering products over the hillslope. In this study, we aim to expand the empirical basis on long-term soil evolution at the landscape scale through a detailed study of soil weathering in subtropical soils. Spatial variability in chemical mass fluxes and weathering intensity were studied along two toposequences with similar climate, lithology and vegetation but different slope morphology. This allowed us to isolate the topographic imprint on chemical weathering and soil development. The toposequences have convexo-concave slope morphology, and eight regolith profiles were analysed involving the flat upslope, steep midslope and flat toeslope part. Our data show a clear topographic imprint on soil development. Along hillslope, the chemical weathering intensity of the regolith profiles increases with distance from the crest. In contrast to the upslope positions, the soils in the basal concavities develop on in-situ and transported regolith. While the chemical weathering extent on the slope convexities (the upslope profiles) is similar for the steep and gentle toposequence, there is a clear difference in the rate of increase of the chemical weathering extent with distance from the crest. The increase of chemical weathering extent along hillslope is highest for the steep toposequence, suggesting that topography enhances soil particle

  6. Using a Six Sigma Fishbone Analysis Approach To Evaluate the Effect of Extreme Weather Events on Salmonella Positives in Young Chicken Slaughter Establishments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linville, John W; Schumann, Douglas; Aston, Christopher; Defibaugh-Chavez, Stephanie; Seebohm, Scott; Touhey, Lucy

    2016-12-01

    A six sigma fishbone analysis approach was used to develop a machine learning model in SAS, Version 9.4, by using stepwise linear regression. The model evaluated the effect of a wide variety of variables, including slaughter establishment operational measures, normal (30-year average) weather, and extreme weather events on the rate of Salmonella -positive carcasses in young chicken slaughter establishments. Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) verification carcass sampling data, as well as corresponding data from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, from September 2011 through April 2015, were included in the model. The results of the modeling show that in addition to basic establishment operations, normal weather patterns, differences from normal and disaster events, including time lag weather and disaster variables, played a role in explaining the Salmonella percent positive that varied by slaughter volume quartile. Findings show that weather and disaster events should be considered as explanatory variables when assessing pathogen-related prevalence analysis or research and slaughter operational controls. The apparent significance of time lag weather variables suggested that at least some of the impact on Salmonella rates occurred after the weather events, which may offer opportunities for FSIS or the poultry industry to implement interventions to mitigate those effects.

  7. Weather during bloom affects pollination and yield of highbush blueberry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuell, Julianna K; Isaacs, Rufus

    2010-06-01

    Weather plays an important role in spring-blooming fruit crops due to the combined effects on bee activity, flower opening, pollen germination, and fertilization. To determine the effects of weather on highbush blueberry, Vaccinium corymbosum L., productivity, we monitored bee activity and compared fruit set, weight, and seed number in a field stocked with honey bees, Apis mellifera L., and common eastern bumble bees, Bombus impatiens (Cresson). Flowers were subjected to one of five treatments during bloom: enclosed, open, open during poor weather only, open during good weather only, or open during poor and good weather. Fewer bees of all types were observed foraging and fewer pollen foragers returned to colonies during poor weather than during good weather. There were also changes in foraging community composition: honey bees dominated during good weather, whereas bumble bees dominated during poor weather. Berries from flowers exposed only during poor weather had higher fruit set in 1 yr and higher berry weight in the other year compared with enclosed clusters. In both years, clusters exposed only during good weather had > 5 times as many mature seeds, weighed twice as much, and had double the fruit set of those not exposed. No significant increase over flowers exposed during good weather was observed when clusters were exposed during good and poor weather. Our results are discussed in terms of the role of weather during bloom on the contribution of bees adapted to foraging during cool conditions.

  8. On nutrients and trace metals: Effects from Enhanced Weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amann, T.; Hartmann, J.

    2015-12-01

    The application of rock flour on suitable land ("Enhanced Weathering") is one proposed strategy to reduce the increase of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At the same time it is an old and established method to add fertiliser and influence soil properties. Investigations of this method focused on the impact on the carbonate system, as well as on engineering aspects of a large-scale application, but potential side effects were never discussed quantitatively. We analysed about 120,000 geochemically characterised volcanic rock samples from the literature. Applying basic statistics, theoretical release rates of nutrients and potential contaminants by Enhanced Weathering were evaluated for typical rock types. Applied rock material can contain significant amounts of essential or beneficial nutrients (potassium, phosphorus, micronutrients). Their release can partly cover the demand of major crops like wheat, rice or corn, thereby increasing crop yield on degraded soils. However, the concentrations of considered elements are variable within a specific rock type, depending on the geological setting. High heavy metal concentrations are found in (ultra-) basic rocks, the class with the highest CO2 drawdown potential. More acidic rocks contain less or no critical amounts, but sequester less CO2. Findings show that the rock selection determines the capability to supply significant amounts of nutrients, which could partly substitute industrial mineral fertiliser usage. At the same time, the release of harmful trace element has to be considered. Through careful selection of regionally available rocks, benefits could be maximised and drawbacks reduced. The deployment of Enhanced Weathering to sequester CO2 and to ameliorate soils necessitates an ecosystem management, considering the release and fate of weathered elements in plants, soils and water. Cropland with degraded soils would benefit while having a net negative CO2 effect, while other carbon dioxide removal strategies, like

  9. Fabulous Weather Day

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Candice; Mogil, H. Michael

    2007-01-01

    Each year, first graders at Kensington Parkwood Elementary School in Kensington, Maryland, look forward to Fabulous Weather Day. Students learn how meteorologists collect data about the weather, how they study wind, temperature, precipitation, basic types/characteristics of clouds, and how they forecast. The project helps the students grow in…

  10. Designing a Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Harry T.

    2012-01-01

    The collection and analysis of weather data is crucial to the location of alternate energy systems like solar and wind. This article presents a design challenge that gives students a chance to design a weather station to collect data in advance of a large wind turbine installation. Data analysis is a crucial part of any science or engineering…

  11. KSC Weather and Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maier, Launa; Huddleston, Lisa; Smith, Kristin

    2016-01-01

    This briefing outlines the history of Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Weather organization, past research sponsored or performed, current organization, responsibilities, and activities, the evolution of weather support, future technologies, and an update on the status of the buoys located offshore of Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and KSC.

  12. Weather and road capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Thomas Christian

    2014-01-01

    The paper presents estimations of the effect of bad weather on the observed speed on a Danish highway section; Køge Bugt Motorvejen. The paper concludes that weather, primarily precipitation and snow, has a clear negative effect on speed when the road is not in hypercongestion mode. Furthermore...

  13. Tales of future weather

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

    2015-01-01

    Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

  14. Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, Erhard M.

    1987-06-01

    Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

  15. Imported dengue cases, weather variation and autochthonous dengue incidence in Cairns, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Huang

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDS: Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas, and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR:1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI: 1.01-2.28, monthly minimum temperature ((oC (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77-2.93, monthly relative humidity (% (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06-1.37, monthly rainfall (mm (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31-0.81 and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (% (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08-1.50. In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR: 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01-2.67. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.

  16. Assessing Weather Curiosity in University Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, A. E.

    2017-12-01

    This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of trait curiosity about the weather using the Weather Curiosity Scale (WCS). The measure consists of 15 self-report items that describe weather preferences and/or behaviors that people may perform more or less frequently. The author reports on two initial studies of the WCS that have used the responses of 710 undergraduate students from a large university in the southeastern United States. In the first study, factor analysis of the 15 items indicated that the measure was unidimensional - suggesting that its items singularly assessed weather curiosity. The WCS also was internally consistent as evidenced by an acceptable Cronbach's alpha, a = .81). The second study sought to identify other personality variables that may relate with the WCS scores and thus illuminate the nature of weather curiosity. Several clusters of personality variables appear to underlie the curiosity levels people exhibited, the first of which related to perceptual curiosity (r = .59). Being curious about sights, sounds, smells, and textures generally related somewhat to curiosity about weather. Two measures of trait sensitivity to environmental stimulation, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (r = .47) and the Orientation Sensitivity Scale of the Adult Temperament Questionnaire (r = .43), also predicted weather curiosity levels. Finally, possessing extraverted personality traits (r = .34) and an intense style of experiencing one's emotions (r = .33) related to weather curiosity. How can this measure be used in K-12 or post-secondary settings to further climate literacy? First, the WCS can identify students with natural curiosities about weather and climate so these students may be given more challenging instruction that will leverage their natural interests. Second, high-WCS students may function as weather and climate ambassadors during inquiry-based learning activities and thus help other students who are not as oriented to the

  17. Fair weather atmospheric electricity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, R G

    2011-01-01

    Not long after Franklin's iconic studies, an atmospheric electric field was discovered in 'fair weather' regions, well away from thunderstorms. The origin of the fair weather field was sought by Lord Kelvin, through development of electrostatic instrumentation and early data logging techniques, but was ultimately explained through the global circuit model of C.T.R. Wilson. In Wilson's model, charge exchanged by disturbed weather electrifies the ionosphere, and returns via a small vertical current density in fair weather regions. New insights into the relevance of fair weather atmospheric electricity to terrestrial and planetary atmospheres are now emerging. For example, there is a possible role of the global circuit current density in atmospheric processes, such as cloud formation. Beyond natural atmospheric processes, a novel practical application is the use of early atmospheric electrostatic investigations to provide quantitative information on past urban air pollution.

  18. Passenger bus industry weather information application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-21

    Adverse weather significantly affects the United States national transportation system, including commercial companies : that rely on highways to support their enterprises. The Passenger Bus (Motorcoach) Industry (PBI) is one such affected : user who...

  19. POPULATION SYNCHRONY WITHIN AND AMONG LEPIDOPTERA SPECIES IN RELATION TO WEATHER, PHYLOGENY, AND LARVEL PHENOLOGY

    Science.gov (United States)

    1. The population dynamics of native herbivore species in central Appalachian deciduous forests were studied by analysing patterns of synchrony among intra- and interspecific populations and weather. 2. Spatial synchrony of 10 Lepidoptera species and three weather variables (min...

  20. Sun, weather, and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herman, J.R.; Goldberg, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    The general field of sun-weather/climate relationships that is, apparent weather and climate responses to solar activity is introduced and theoretical and experimental suggestions for further research to identify and investigate the unknown casual mechanisms are provided. Topics of discussion include: (1) solar-related correlation factors and energy sources; (2) long-term climate trends; (3) short-term meteorological correlations; (4) miscellaneous obscuring influences; (5) physical processes and mechanisms; (6) recapitulation of sun-weather relationships; and (7) guidelines for experiments. 300 references

  1. Counterintuitive roles of experience and weather on migratory performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rus, Adrian I.; Duerr, Adam E.; Miller, Tricia A.; Belthoff, James R.; Katzner, Todd E.

    2017-01-01

    Migration allows animals to live in resource-rich but seasonally variable environments. Because of the costs of migration, there is selective pressure to capitalize on variation in weather to optimize migratory performance. To test the degree to which migratory performance (defined as speed of migration) of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) was determined by age- and season-specific responses to variation in weather, we analyzed 1,863 daily tracks (n = 83 migrant eagles) and 8,047 hourly tracks (n = 83) based on 15 min GPS telemetry data from Golden Eagles and 277 hourly tracks based on 30 s data (n = 37). Spring migrant eagles traveled 139.75 ± 82.19 km day−1 (mean ± SE; n = 57) and 25.59 ± 11.75 km hr−1 (n = 55). Autumn migrant eagles traveled 99.14 ± 59.98 km day−1 (n = 26) and 22.18 ± 9.18 km hr−1 (n = 28). Weather during migration varied by season and by age class. During spring, best-supported daily and hourly models of 15 min data suggested that migratory performance was influenced most strongly by downward solar radiation and that older birds benefited less from flow assistance (tailwinds). During autumn, best-supported daily and hourly models of 15 min data suggested that migratory performance was influenced most strongly by south–north winds and by flow assistance, again less strongly for older birds. In contrast, models for hourly performance based on data collected at 30 s intervals were not well described by a single model, likely reflecting eagles' rapid responses to the many weather conditions they experienced. Although daily speed of travel was similar for all age classes, younger birds traveled at faster hourly speeds than did adults. Our analyses uncovered strong, sometimes counterintuitive, relationships among weather, experience, and migratory flight, and they illustrate the significance of factors other than age in determining migratory performance.

  2. Optimized Strategies for Detecting Extrasolar Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallinan, Gregg

    2018-06-01

    Fully understanding the implications of space weather for the young solar system, as well as the wider population of planet-hosting stars, requires remote sensing of space weather in other stellar systems. Solar coronal mass ejections can be accompanied by bright radio bursts at low frequencies (typically measurement of the magnetic field strength of the planet, informing on whether the atmosphere of the planet can survive the intense magnetic activity of its host star. However, both stellar and planetary radio emission are highly variable and optimal strategies for detection of these emissions requires the capability to monitor 1000s of nearby stellar/planetary systems simultaneously. I will discuss optimized strategies for both ground and space-based experiments to take advantage of the highly variable nature of the radio emissions powered by extrasolar space weather to enable detection of stellar CMEs and planetary magnetospheres.

  3. Third Space Weather Summit Held for Industry and Government Agencies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intriligator, Devrie S.

    2009-12-01

    The potential for space weather effects has been increasing significantly in recent years. For instance, in 2008 airlines flew about 8000 transpolar flights, which experience greater exposure to space weather than nontranspolar flights. This is up from 368 transpolar flights in 2000, and the number of such flights is expected to continue to grow. Transpolar flights are just one example of the diverse technologies susceptible to space weather effects identified by the National Research Council's Severe Space Weather Events—Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report (2008). To discuss issues related to the increasing need for reliable space weather information, experts from industry and government agencies met at the third summit of the Commercial Space Weather Interest Group (CSWIG) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), held 30 April 2009 during Space Weather Week (SWW), in Boulder, Colo.

  4. Uruguay - Surface Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface weather observation forms for 26 stations in Uruguay. Period of record 1896-2005, with two to eight observations per day. Files created through a...

  5. Weather Information Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    Science Communications International (SCI), formerly General Science Corporation, has developed several commercial products based upon experience acquired as a NASA Contractor. Among them are METPRO, a meteorological data acquisition and processing system, which has been widely used, RISKPRO, an environmental assessment system, and MAPPRO, a geographic information system. METPRO software is used to collect weather data from satellites, ground-based observation systems and radio weather broadcasts to generate weather maps, enabling potential disaster areas to receive advance warning. GSC's initial work for NASA Goddard Space Flight Center resulted in METPAK, a weather satellite data analysis system. METPAK led to the commercial METPRO system. The company also provides data to other government agencies, U.S. embassies and foreign countries.

  6. Oil Rig Weather Observations

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather observations taken at offshore platforms along the United States coastlines. The majority are located in oil-rich areas of the Gulf of Mexico, Gulf of...

  7. Cape Kennedy Weather Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Digitized data taken from original weather observations taken at Cape Kennedy Air Force Station, Florida. Elements recorded are wind speed and direction,...

  8. Winter weather demand considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-01

    Winter weather has varied effects on travel behavior. Using 418 survey responses from the Northern Virginia : commuting area of Washington, D.C. and binary logit models, this study examines travel related changes under : different types of winter wea...

  9. NOAA Weather Radio

    Science.gov (United States)

    del tiempo incluido. Si eres quieres ser avisado de las advertencias y relojes de día o de noche, un Weather Radio relojes son independientes o basadas en el Condado (parroquia basados en Luisiana), aunque

  10. Space Weather Products

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Collection includes a variety of space weather datasets from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and from the World Data Service for Geophysics,...

  11. Daily Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Several different government offices have published the Daily weather maps over its history. The publication has also gone by different names over time. The U.S....

  12. Winter Weather: Indoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  13. Winter Weather: Outdoor Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  14. Winter Weather Checklists

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  15. Winter Weather: Frostbite

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  16. Surface Weather Observations Monthly

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Surface Weather Observation 1001 Forms is a set of historical manuscript records for the period 1893-1948. The collection includes two very similar form types: Form...

  17. Adverse weather impacts on arable cropping systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Damages due to extreme or adverse weather strongly depend on crop type, crop stage, soil conditions and management. The impact is largest during the sensitive periods of the farming calendar, and requires a modelling approach to capture the interactions between the crop, its environment and the occurrence of the meteorological event. The hypothesis is that extreme and adverse weather events can be quantified and subsequently incorporated in current crop models. Since crop development is driven by thermal time and photoperiod, a regional crop model was used to examine the likely frequency, magnitude and impacts of frost, drought, heat stress and waterlogging in relation to the cropping season and crop sensitive stages. Risk profiles and associated return levels were obtained by fitting generalized extreme value distributions to block maxima for air humidity, water balance and temperature variables. The risk profiles were subsequently confronted with yields and yield losses for the major arable crops in Belgium, notably winter wheat, winter barley, winter oilseed rape, sugar beet, potato and maize at the field (farm records) to regional scale (statistics). The average daily vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and reference evapotranspiration (ET0) during the growing season is significantly lower (p < 0.001) and has a higher variability before 1988 than after 1988. Distribution patterns of VPD and ET0 have relevant impacts on crop yields. The response to rising temperatures depends on the crop's capability to condition its microenvironment. Crops short of water close their stomata, lose their evaporative cooling potential and ultimately become susceptible to heat stress. Effects of heat stress therefore have to be combined with moisture availability such as the precipitation deficit or the soil water balance. Risks of combined heat and moisture deficit stress appear during the summer. These risks are subsequently related to crop damage. The methodology of defining

  18. Clay minerals in sediments of Portuguese reservoirs and their significance as weathering products from over-eroded soils: a comparative study of the Maranhão, Monte Novo and Divor Reservoirs (South Portugal)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fonseca, Rita M. F.; Barriga, Fernando J. A. S.; Conceição, Patrícia I. S. T.

    2010-12-01

    The Southern region of Portugal is subjected to several forms of over-erosion. Most leached products, mainly composed of fine particles containing nutrients, metals or pesticides, are easily transported by river flows. When these are hindered by a physical barrier such as a dam, the particulate load accumulates on the bottom of the reservoirs, often leading to a pronounced decrease of water quality. Bottom sediments from three reservoirs were subjected to grain-size analysis and a study of clay minerals by X-ray diffraction. Most sediments contain a diverse set of clay minerals, mostly illites, smectites, chlorites and kaolinites. The nature of the clay minerals reflects the nature of the parent rocks. During the cycles of transport and temporary deposition, they may undergo significant chemical and physical transformations, which lead to an increase of expandable properties and therefore, to a higher cationic exchange capacity, determining its important role as vehicles of environmental pollutants.

  19. Cave breakdown by vadose weathering.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osborne R. Armstrong L.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Vadose weathering is a significant mechanism for initiating breakdown in caves. Vadose weathering of ore bodies, mineral veins, palaeokarst deposits, non-carbonate keystones and impure, altered or fractured bedrock, which is intersected by caves, will frequently result in breakdown. Breakdown is an active, ongoing process. Breakdown occurs throughout the vadose zone, and is not restricted to large diameter passages, or to cave ceilings. The surfaces of disarticulated blocks are commonly coated, rather than having fresh broken faces, and blocks continue to disintegrate after separating from the bedrock. Not only gypsum, but also hydromagnesite and aragonite are responsible for crystal wedging. It is impossible to study or identify potential breakdown foci by surface surveys alone, in-cave observation and mapping are essential.

  20. Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardegree, Stuart P.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brunson, Mark W.; Germino, Matthew; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Moffet, Corey A.; Pilliod, David S.; Roundy, Bruce A.; Boehm, Alex R.; Meredith, Gwendwr R.

    2018-01-01

    Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

  1. Interactive effects of prey and weather on golden eagle reproduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steenhof, Karen; Kochert, Michael N.; McDonald, T.L.

    1997-01-01

    1. The reproduction of the golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos was studied in southwestern Idaho for 23 years, and the relationship between eagle reproduction and jackrabbit Lepus californicus abundance, weather factors, and their interactions, was modelled using general linear models. Backward elimination procedures were used to arrive at parsimonious models.2. The number of golden eagle pairs occupying nesting territories each year showed a significant decline through time that was unrelated to either annual rabbit abundance or winter severity. However, eagle hatching dates were significantly related to both winter severity and jackrabbit abundance. Eagles hatched earlier when jackrabbits were abundant, and they hatched later after severe winters.3. Jackrabbit abundance influenced the proportion of pairs that laid eggs, the proportion of pairs that were successful, mean brood size at fledging, and the number of young fledged per pair. Weather interacted with prey to influence eagle reproductive rates.4. Both jackrabbit abundance and winter severity were important in predicting the percentage of eagle pairs that laid eggs. Percentage laying was related positively to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to winter severity.5. The variables most useful in predicting percentage of laying pairs successful were rabbit abundance and the number of extremely hot days during brood-rearing. The number of hot days and rabbit abundance were also significant in a model predicting eagle brood size at fledging. Both success and brood size were positively related to jackrabbit abundance and inversely related to the frequency of hot days in spring.6. Eagle reproduction was limited by rabbit abundance during approximately twothirds of the years studied. Weather influenced how severely eagle reproduction declined in those years.7. This study demonstrates that prey and weather can interact to limit a large raptor population's productivity. Smaller raptors could be affected more

  2. Effects of intraday weather changes on asset returns and volatilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyein Shim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing the intraday dataset on weather and market information with the use of the extended GJR-GARCH framework, this study explores in depth the weather effects on the asset returns and volatilities of the Korean stock and derivatives markets. Our intraday analyses contribute to the existing literature by going beyond the attempt of prior studies to capture the weather effects using the average daily observations alone. The empirical results document a modest presence of the weather effect on the returns and volatilities, though the significance of its impact is found to vary across different market conditions and indices. We also find that the return and volatility respond asymmetrically to extremely good and bad weather conditions. The intraday analyses show that the weather effect on the returns and volatilities is more statistically significant at the beginning of the working day or the lunch break, indicating the intraday weather effects on the financial market.

  3. Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tsangyao; Nieh, Chien-Chung; Yang, Ming Jing; Yang, Tse-Yu

    2006-05-01

    In this study, we employ a recently developed econometric technique of the threshold model with the GJR-GARCH process on error terms to investigate the relationships between weather factors and stock market returns in Taiwan using daily data for the period of 1 July 1997-22 October 2003. The major weather factors studied include temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. Our empirical evidence shows that temperature and cloud cover are two important weather factors that affect the stock returns in Taiwan. Our empirical findings further support the previous arguments that advocate the inclusion of economically neutral behavioral variables in asset pricing models. These results also have significant implications for individual investors and financial institutions planning to invest in the Taiwan stock market.

  4. Casebook on application for weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-11-01

    This book introduces the excellent cases on application using weather at the industry, research center and public office. It lists the names and application cases in 2008 and 2009, which includes research on decease in risk by weather in the industry by Sam sung institute of safety and environment, service on weather information for people by KT, application with weather information in the flight by Korean air, use on weather information for prevention of disasters by Masan city hall, upgrade for business with weather marketing, center for river forecast in NOAA and the case using weather management for high profit margins.

  5. Variable temperature ion trap studies of CH4+ + H2, HD and D2: negative temperature dependence and significant isotope effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Asvany, O.; Savic, I.; Schlemmer, S.; Gerlich, D.

    2004-01-01

    Reactions of methane cations, CH 4 + , with H 2 , HD and D 2 have been studied in a variable temperature 22-pole ion trap from room temperature down to 15 K. The formation of CH 5 + in collisions with H 2 is slow at 300 K, but it becomes faster by at least one order of magnitude when the temperature is lowered to 15 K. This behavior is tentatively explained with a longer complex lifetime at low temperatures. However, since tunneling is most probably not responsible for product formation, other dynamical or statistical restrictions must be responsible for the negative temperature dependence. In collisions of CH 4 + with HD, the CH 5 + product ion (68% at 15 K) prevails over CH 4 D + (32%). Reaction of CH 4 + with D 2 is found to be much slower than with H 2 or HD. The rate coefficient for converting CH 4 + into CH 3 D + by H-D exchange has been determined to be smaller than 10 -12 cm 3 /s, indicating that scrambling in the CH 6 + complex is very unlikely

  6. Variable temperature ion trap studies of CH{sub 4}{sup +} + H{sub 2}, HD and D{sub 2}: negative temperature dependence and significant isotope effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asvany, O.; Savic, I.; Schlemmer, S.; Gerlich, D

    2004-03-08

    Reactions of methane cations, CH{sub 4}{sup +}, with H{sub 2}, HD and D{sub 2} have been studied in a variable temperature 22-pole ion trap from room temperature down to 15 K. The formation of CH{sub 5}{sup +} in collisions with H{sub 2} is slow at 300 K, but it becomes faster by at least one order of magnitude when the temperature is lowered to 15 K. This behavior is tentatively explained with a longer complex lifetime at low temperatures. However, since tunneling is most probably not responsible for product formation, other dynamical or statistical restrictions must be responsible for the negative temperature dependence. In collisions of CH{sub 4}{sup +} with HD, the CH{sub 5}{sup +} product ion (68% at 15 K) prevails over CH{sub 4}D{sup +} (32%). Reaction of CH{sub 4}{sup +} with D{sub 2} is found to be much slower than with H{sub 2} or HD. The rate coefficient for converting CH{sub 4}{sup +} into CH{sub 3}D{sup +} by H-D exchange has been determined to be smaller than 10{sup -12} cm{sup 3}/s, indicating that scrambling in the CH{sub 6}{sup +} complex is very unlikely.

  7. Hydrologic applications of weather radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Jun; Habib, Emad; Andrieu, Hervé; Morin, Efrat

    2015-12-01

    By providing high-resolution quantitative precipitation information (QPI), weather radars have revolutionized hydrology in the last two decades. With the aid of GIS technology, radar-based quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) have enabled routine high-resolution hydrologic modeling in many parts of the world. Given the ever-increasing need for higher-resolution hydrologic and water resources information for a wide range of applications, one may expect that the use of weather radar will only grow. Despite the tremendous progress, a number of significant scientific, technological and engineering challenges remain to realize its potential. New challenges are also emerging as new areas of applications are discovered, explored and pursued. The purpose of this special issue is to provide the readership with some of the latest advances, lessons learned, experiences gained, and science issues and challenges related to hydrologic applications of weather radar. The special issue features 20 contributions on various topics which reflect the increasing diversity as well as the areas of focus in radar hydrology today. The contributions may be grouped as follows:

  8. Blastocystis Isolates from Patients with Irritable Bowel Syndrome and from Asymptomatic Carriers Exhibit Similar Parasitological Loads, but Significantly Different Generation Times and Genetic Variability across Multiple Subtypes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gie-Bele Vargas-Sanchez

    selected, reducing their genetic variability.

  9. Impacts from urban water systems on receiving waters - How to account for severe wet-weather events in LCA?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risch, Eva; Gasperi, Johnny; Gromaire, Marie-Christine; Chebbo, Ghassan; Azimi, Sam; Rocher, Vincent; Roux, Philippe; Rosenbaum, Ralph K; Sinfort, Carole

    2018-01-01

    Sewage systems are a vital part of the urban infrastructure in most cities. They provide drainage, which protects public health, prevents the flooding of property and protects the water environment around urban areas. On some occasions sewers will overflow into the water environment during heavy rain potentially causing unacceptable impacts from releases of untreated sewage into the environment. In typical Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies of urban wastewater systems (UWS), average dry-weather conditions are modelled while wet-weather flows from UWS, presenting a high temporal variability, are not currently accounted for. In this context, the loads from several storm events could be important contributors to the impact categories freshwater eutrophication and ecotoxicity. In this study we investigated the contributions of these wet-weather-induced discharges relative to average dry-weather conditions in the life cycle inventory for UWS. In collaboration with the Paris public sanitation service (SIAAP) and Observatory of Urban Pollutants (OPUR) program researchers, this work aimed at identifying and comparing contributing flows from the UWS in the Paris area by a selection of routine wastewater parameters and priority pollutants. This collected data is organized according to archetypal weather days during a reference year. Then, for each archetypal weather day and its associated flows to the receiving river waters (Seine), the parameters of pollutant loads (statistical distribution of concentrations and volumes) were determined. The resulting inventory flows (i.e. the potential loads from the UWS) were used as LCA input data to assess the associated impacts. This allowed investigating the relative importance of episodic wet-weather versus "continuous" dry-weather loads with a probabilistic approach to account for pollutant variability within the urban flows. The analysis at the scale of one year showed that storm events are significant contributors to the impacts

  10. Weather derivatives: Business hedge instrument from weather risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Bojan S.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the late 1990s, a new financial market was developed - a market for weather derivatives, so that the risk managers could hedge their exposure to weather risk. After a rather slow start, the weather derivatives market had started to grow rapidly. Risk managers could no longer blame poor financial results on the weather. Weather risk could now be removed by hedging procedure. This paper will explain briefly what the weather derivatives are and will point out at some of the motives for use of derivatives. Thereafter we will look at the history of the weather risk market, how the weather derivatives market has developed in recent years and also who are the current and potential players in the weather derivatives market.

  11. Investigation of time and weather effects on crash types using full Bayesian multivariate Poisson lognormal models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Basyouny, Karim; Barua, Sudip; Islam, Md Tazul

    2014-12-01

    Previous research shows that various weather elements have significant effects on crash occurrence and risk; however, little is known about how these elements affect different crash types. Consequently, this study investigates the impact of weather elements and sudden extreme snow or rain weather changes on crash type. Multivariate models were used for seven crash types using five years of daily weather and crash data collected for the entire City of Edmonton. In addition, the yearly trend and random variation of parameters across the years were analyzed by using four different modeling formulations. The proposed models were estimated in a full Bayesian context via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. The multivariate Poisson lognormal model with yearly varying coefficients provided the best fit for the data according to Deviance Information Criteria. Overall, results showed that temperature and snowfall were statistically significant with intuitive signs (crashes decrease with increasing temperature; crashes increase as snowfall intensity increases) for all crash types, while rainfall was mostly insignificant. Previous snow showed mixed results, being statistically significant and positively related to certain crash types, while negatively related or insignificant in other cases. Maximum wind gust speed was found mostly insignificant with a few exceptions that were positively related to crash type. Major snow or rain events following a dry weather condition were highly significant and positively related to three crash types: Follow-Too-Close, Stop-Sign-Violation, and Ran-Off-Road crashes. The day-of-the-week dummy variables were statistically significant, indicating a possible weekly variation in exposure. Transportation authorities might use the above results to improve road safety by providing drivers with information regarding the risk of certain crash types for a particular weather condition. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessment of weather risk on chestnut production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, M. G.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Caramelo, L.

    2009-04-01

    Meteorological conditions play a fundamental role during entire chestnut tree vegetative cycle. Chestnut trees are well adapted to mean year temperatures of 8-15°C, requires monthly mean temperatures greater than 10°C during 6 months (Gomes-Laranjo et al. 2008) and its pollen only germinates at relatively high temperatures of 27-30°C (Bounous, 2002). Photosynthesis of an adult tree is highly dependent of temperature. Photosynthesis is maximal at 24-28°C but it is inhibited for temperatures greater than 32°C (Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2005, 2006). Furthermore, there are significant differences between chestnut trees cultivated in northfaced orchads in relation to those cultivated in the southfaced and between leaves from different sides of the chestnut canopy because they receive different amounts of radiant energy and consequently they grow under different mean daily air temperature. The objective of this work was to assess the role of weather on chestnut production variability. This study was performed for the 28 years period defined between 1980 and 2007 and it was based on annual values of chestnut production and total area of production, at national level, provided by INE, the National Institute of Statistics of Portugal. The meteorological data used was provided by Meteored (http://www.meteored.com/) and includes daily values of precipitation, wind speed, and mean, maximum and minimum air temperature. All meteorological variables were tested as potential predictors by means of a simple correlation analysis. Multiple time intervals were considered in this the analysis, which consist in moving intervals of constant length and forward and backward evolutionary intervals. Results show that some meteorological variables present significant correlation with chestnut productivity particularly in the most relevant periods of the chestnut tree cycle, like the previous winter, the flushing phase and the maturation period. A regression model based on the winter (January

  13. Monitoring the variability of sea level and surface circulation with satellite altimetry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Volkov, Denis L. "Jr"

    2004-01-01

    Variability in the ocean plays an important role in determining global weather and climate conditions. The advent of satellite altimetry has significantly facilitated the study of the variability of sea level and surface circulation. Satellites provide high-quality regular and nearly global

  14. Designing a better weather display

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ware, Colin; Plumlee, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    The variables most commonly displayed on weather maps are atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, and surface temperature. But they are usually shown separately, not together on a single map. As a design exercise, we set the goal of finding out if it is possible to show all three variables (two 2D scalar fields and a 2D vector field) simultaneously such that values can be accurately read using keys for all variables, a reasonable level of detail is shown, and important meteorological features stand out clearly. Our solution involves employing three perceptual "channels", a color channel, a texture channel, and a motion channel in order to perceptually separate the variables and make them independently readable. We conducted an experiment to evaluate our new design both against a conventional solution, and against a glyph-based solution. The evaluation tested the abilities of novice subjects both to read values using a key, and to see meteorological patterns in the data. Our new scheme was superior especially in the representation of wind patterns using the motion channel, and it also performed well enough in the representation of pressure using the texture channel to suggest it as a viable design alternative.

  15. Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

    2013-12-01

    Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching

  16. Weather In Some Islands

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王良华

    2007-01-01

    There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

  17. Pilot's Automated Weather Support System (PAWSS) concepts demonstration project. Phase 1: Pilot's weather information requirements and implications for weather data systems design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabill, Norman L.; Dash, Ernie R.

    1991-01-01

    The weather information requirements for pilots and the deficiencies of the current aviation weather support system in meeting these requirements are defined. As the amount of data available to pilots increases significantly in the near future, expert system technology will be needed to assist pilots in assimilating that information. Some other desirable characteristics of an automation-assisted system for weather data acquisition, dissemination, and assimilation are also described.

  18. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M; Gerlinger, K; Herrmann, N; Klein, R J.T.; Schneider, M; Sterr, H; Schellnhuber, H J

    2000-05-01

    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  19. Weather impacts on natural, social and economic systems. German report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Flechsig, M.; Gerlinger, K.; Herrmann, N.; Klein, R.J.T.; Schneider, M.; Sterr, H.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2000-05-01

    The EU project Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE) has analysed impacts of current climate variability to evaluate the sensitivity of today's society to extreme weather. Unlike studies of anticipated impacts of climate change, WISE did not rely on scenarios and projections, but on existing and newly collected data. The research involved (i) the statistical modelling of meteorological and sectoral time series, aimed at quantifying the impacts of changing weather variables on sector output, (ii) a population survey, aimed at investigating public perception of and behavioural response to unusually hot and dry summers and mild winters, and (iii) a management survey, aimed at obtaining insight into managers' awareness and perception of the importance of extreme weather on their operations. The three activities revealed a wealth of data and information, providing relevant insights into Germany's sensitivity to and perception of extreme weather events. Sectors that were analysed included agriculture, outdoor fire, water supply, human health, electricity and gas consumption and tourism. It appears from the statistical modelling that extreme weather can have impressive impacts on all sectors, especially when expressed in monetary terms. However, weather variability is generally considered a manageable risk, to which sectors in Germany appear reasonably well-adapted. The population and management surveys reveal both positive and negative impacts of extreme weather. People generally respond to these impacts by adjusting their activities. The utilities (electricity, gas and water) indicate that they are robsut to the current level of weather variability and do not consider climate change an important threat to their operations. The tourism sector experiences impacts but typically takes a reactive approach to adaptation, although it is also developing weather-insensitive products. (orig.)

  20. Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

    2014-05-01

    Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

  1. Association of day length and weather conditions with physical activity levels in older community dwelling people.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miles D Witham

    Full Text Available Weather is a potentially important determinant of physical activity. Little work has been done examining the relationship between weather and physical activity, and potential modifiers of any relationship in older people. We therefore examined the relationship between weather and physical activity in a cohort of older community-dwelling people.We analysed prospectively collected cross-sectional activity data from community-dwelling people aged 65 and over in the Physical Activity Cohort Scotland. We correlated seven day triaxial accelerometry data with daily weather data (temperature, day length, sunshine, snow, rain, and a series of potential effect modifiers were tested in mixed models: environmental variables (urban vs rural dwelling, percentage of green space, psychological variables (anxiety, depression, perceived behavioural control, social variables (number of close contacts and health status measured using the SF-36 questionnaire.547 participants, mean age 78.5 years, were included in this analysis. Higher minimum daily temperature and longer day length were associated with higher activity levels; these associations remained robust to adjustment for other significant associates of activity: age, perceived behavioural control, number of social contacts and physical function. Of the potential effect modifier variables, only urban vs rural dwelling and the SF-36 measure of social functioning enhanced the association between day length and activity; no variable modified the association between minimum temperature and activity.In older community dwelling people, minimum temperature and day length were associated with objectively measured activity. There was little evidence for moderation of these associations through potentially modifiable health, environmental, social or psychological variables.

  2. Solar EUV irradiance for space weather applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viereck, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    Solar EUV irradiance is an important driver of space weather models. Large changes in EUV and x-ray irradiances create large variability in the ionosphere and thermosphere. Proxies such as the F10.7 cm radio flux, have provided reasonable estimates of the EUV flux but as the space weather models become more accurate and the demands of the customers become more stringent, proxies are no longer adequate. Furthermore, proxies are often provided only on a daily basis and shorter time scales are becoming important. Also, there is a growing need for multi-day forecasts of solar EUV irradiance to drive space weather forecast models. In this presentation we will describe the needs and requirements for solar EUV irradiance information from the space weather modeler's perspective. We will then translate these requirements into solar observational requirements such as spectral resolution and irradiance accuracy. We will also describe the activities at NOAA to provide long-term solar EUV irradiance observations and derived products that are needed for real-time space weather modeling.

  3. Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A

    2018-03-13

    Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

  4. Dynamic Weather Routes: A Weather Avoidance Concept for Trajectory-Based Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, B. David; Love, John

    2011-01-01

    The integration of convective weather modeling with trajectory automation for conflict detection, trial planning, direct routing, and auto resolution has uncovered a concept that could help controllers, dispatchers, and pilots identify improved weather routes that result in significant savings in flying time and fuel burn. Trajectory automation continuously and automatically monitors aircraft in flight to find those that could potentially benefit from improved weather reroutes. Controllers, dispatchers, and pilots then evaluate reroute options to assess their suitability given current weather and traffic. In today's operations aircraft fly convective weather avoidance routes that were implemented often hours before aircraft approach the weather and automation does not exist to automatically monitor traffic to find improved weather routes that open up due to changing weather conditions. The automation concept runs in real-time and employs two keysteps. First, a direct routing algorithm automatically identifies flights with large dog legs in their routes and therefore potentially large savings in flying time. These are common - and usually necessary - during convective weather operations and analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic shows many aircraft with short cuts that indicate savings on the order of 10 flying minutes. The second and most critical step is to apply trajectory automation with weather modeling to determine what savings could be achieved by modifying the direct route such that it avoids weather and traffic and is acceptable to controllers and flight crews. Initial analysis of Fort Worth Center traffic suggests a savings of roughly 50% of the direct route savings could be achievable.The core concept is to apply trajectory automation with convective weather modeling in real time to identify a reroute that is free of weather and traffic conflicts and indicates enough time and fuel savings to be considered. The concept is interoperable with today

  5. Dress for the Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glen, Nicole J.; Smetana, Lara K.

    2010-01-01

    "If someone were traveling to our area for the first time during this time of year, what would you tell them to bring to wear? Why?" This question was used to engage students in a guided-inquiry unit about how climate differs from weather. In this lesson, students explored local and national data sets to give "travelers" advice…

  6. Weather and Flight Testing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Scott

    2007-01-01

    This viewgraph document reviews some of the weather hazards involved with flight testing. Some of the hazards reviewed are: turbulence, icing, thunderstorms and winds and windshear. Maps, pictures, satellite pictures of the meteorological phenomena and graphs are included. Also included are pictures of damaged aircraft.

  7. Weatherization Works: Weatherization Assistance Program Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The United States demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  8. Classification of weathered crude oils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogt, N.B.; Sjoegren, C.E.; Lichtenthaler, G.

    1987-01-01

    The NORDTEST procedure (1) for oil spill identification has been applied successfully at several occasions. The NORDTEST procedure includes analyses of sulfur (XRF), vanadium and nickel (ICP/AAS), GC, HPLC and UV-fluorescence. The NORDTEST procedure does not include GC-MS as an analytical method. As part of a joint Nordic to evaluate the NORDTEST procedure for oil identification, with participants from Denmark, Sweden, Finland and Norway, thirty artificially weathered crude oils from four geographical regions have been analyzed (2). The analytical methods evaluated include sulfur analysis, vanadium and nickel analysis, infrared analysis, UV-fluorescence, gas chromatography, high pressure liquid chromatography and high resolution GC-mass spectrometry. Figure 1 shows the distribution of variables analyzed in each analytical method. The 190 variables from GC-MS were split into 7 groups according to chemical considerations. These were steranes (25 var.), triterpanes (16 var.), di(+)aromatics (63 var.), sulf. aromatics (30 var.), monoaromatics (19 var.), cycloalkanes (15 var.) and n-alkanes (22) variables. The data from these chemical analyses have been evaluated for use in oil spill identification purposes

  9. Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI) is an integrated database of severe weather records for the United States. SWDI enables a user to search through a variety...

  10. North America Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Maps contains a surface analysis comprised of plotted weather station observations, isobars indicating low and high-pressure...

  11. Geography and Weather: Mountain Meterology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mogil, H. Michael; Collins, H. Thomas

    1990-01-01

    Provided are 26 ideas to help children explore the effects of mountains on the weather. Weather conditions in Nepal and Colorado are considered separately. Nine additional sources of information are listed. (CW)

  12. Prevalence of weather sensitivity in Germany and Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackensen, Sylvia; Hoeppe, Peter; Maarouf, Abdel; Tourigny, Pierre; Nowak, Dennis

    2005-01-01

    % of the weather-sensitive subjects reported themselves to be unable to do their regular work because of weather-related symptoms at least once in the previous year, and 22% of them several times. Co-morbidity was significantly higher in weather-sensitive subjects both in Germany and Canada. These results clearly showed the important impact of WS on public health and the economy. These findings prompted us to start studies on the causal factors of weather-related health effects.

  13. A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Douglas; Fowler, Hayley J; Kilsby, Christopher G; Neal, Robert

    2018-02-01

    Weather-pattern, or weather-type, classifications are a valuable tool in many applications as they characterize the broad-scale atmospheric circulation over a given region. This study analyses the aspects of regional UK precipitation and meteorological drought climatology with respect to a new set of objectively defined weather patterns. These new patterns are currently being used by the Met Office in several probabilistic forecasting applications driven by ensemble forecasting systems. Weather pattern definitions and daily occurrences are mapped to Lamb weather types (LWTs), and parallels between the two classifications are drawn. Daily precipitation distributions are associated with each weather pattern and LWT. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and drought severity index (DSI) series are calculated for a range of aggregation periods and seasons. Monthly weather-pattern frequency anomalies are calculated for SPI wet and dry periods and for the 5% most intense DSI-based drought months. The new weather-pattern definitions and daily occurrences largely agree with their respective LWTs, allowing comparison between the two classifications. There is also broad agreement between weather pattern and LWT changes in frequencies. The new data set is shown to be adequate for precipitation-based analyses in the UK, although a smaller set of clustered weather patterns is not. Furthermore, intra-pattern precipitation variability is lower in the new classification compared to the LWTs, which is an advantage in this context. Six of the new weather patterns are associated with drought over the entire UK, with several other patterns linked to regional drought. It is demonstrated that the new data set of weather patterns offers a new opportunity for classification-based analyses in the UK.

  14. Probability for Weather and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  15. Central American Flying Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    CEILING; VISIBILITY; WIND, PRECIPITATIDNc’--." HAZE, SMOKE, TEMPORALE ; MOUNTAIN WAVE; MILITARY METEOROLOGY. 4k- / ’A. bstract; Asummary of~ing weather...1 The " Temporale " ....................................1 Mountain Waves ......................I...............1 Severe Thunderstorms...charts. The for any part of Central America lies in having: Tactical Pilota.e Chart series , produced by the Df -.nse Mapping Agency, is * A good, basic

  16. World Weather Extremes. Revision,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-12-01

    Ext r-,ncs, Weekl Weather and Crop Bull, Vol. 43, No. 9, pp. 6-8, 27 Feb 56. 21A. ntoli, La Piu Alta Temperatura del Mondo," [The HiLhest Temperi... Temperatura in Libia", Boll Soc Geogr Ita’iana, ser. 8, Vol. 7, pp. 59-71, 1954. 23J. Gentilli, "Libyan Climate", Geograph Rev, V0 l. 45, No. 2, p. 269 S" Apr

  17. Strontium stable isotope behaviour accompanying basalt weathering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, K. W.; Parkinson, I. J.; Gíslason, S. G. R.

    2016-12-01

    The strontium (Sr) stable isotope composition of rivers is strongly controlled by the balance of carbonate to silicate weathering (Krabbenhöft et al. 2010; Pearce et al. 2015). However, rivers draining silicate catchments possess distinctly heavier Sr stable isotope values than their bedrock compositions, pointing to significant fractionation during weathering. Some have argued for preferential release of heavy Sr from primary phases during chemical weathering, others for the formation of secondary weathering minerals that incorporate light isotopes. This study presents high-precision double-spike Sr stable isotope data for soils, rivers, ground waters and estuarine waters from Iceland, reflecting both natural weathering and societal impacts on those environments. The bedrock in Iceland is dominantly basaltic, d88/86Sr ≈ +0.27, extending to lighter values for rhyolites. Geothermal waters range from basaltic Sr stable compositions to those akin to seawater. Soil pore waters reflect a balance of input from primary mineral weathering, precipitation and litter recycling and removal into secondary phases and vegetation. Rivers and ground waters possess a wide range of d88/86Sr compositions from +0.101 to +0.858. Elemental and isotope data indicate that this fractionation primarily results from the formation or dissolution of secondary zeolite (d88/86Sr ≈ +0.10), but also carbonate (d88/86Sr ≈ +0.22) and sometimes anhydrite (d88/86Sr ≈ -0.73), driving the residual waters to heavier or lighter values, respectively. Estuarine waters largely reflect mixing with seawater, but are also be affected by adsorption onto particulates, again driving water to heavy values. Overall, these data indicate that the stability and nature of secondary weathering phases, exerts a strong control on the Sr stable isotope composition of silicate rivers. [1] Krabbenhöft et al. (2010) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 74, 4097-4109. [2] Pearce et al. (2015) Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 157, 125-146.

  18. Weather and place-based human behavior: recreational preferences and sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Freitas, C. R.

    2015-01-01

    This study examines the links between biometeorological variables and the behavior of beach recreationists along with their rating of overall weather conditions. To identify and describe significance of on-site atmospheric conditions, two separate forms of response are examined. The first is sensory perception of the immediate atmospheric surround expressed verbally, which was the subject of earlier work. In the research reported here, on-site observations of behavior that reflect the effects of weather and climate are examined. By employing, independently, separate indicators of on-site experience, the reliability of each is examined and interpreted and apparent threshold conditions verified. The study site is King's Beach located on the coast of Queensland, Australia. On-site observations of atmospheric variables and beach user behavior are made for the daylight hours of 45 days spread over a 12-month period. The results show that behavioral data provide reliable and meaningful indications of the significance of the atmospheric environment for leisure. Atmospheric conditions within the zone of acceptability are those that the beach users can readily cope with or modify by a range of minor behavioral adjustments. Optimal weather conditions appear to be those requiring no specific behavioral adjustment. Attendance levels reflect only the outer limits of acceptability of the meteorological environment, while duration of visit enables calibration of levels of approval in so far as it reflects rating of on-site weather within a broad zone of tolerance. In a broad theoretical sense, the results add to an understanding of the relationship between weather and human behavior. This information is potentially useful in effective tourism management and planning.

  19. NWS Weather Fatality, Injury and Damage Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Weather Awareness Floods, Wind Chill, Tornadoes, Heat... Education Weather Terms, Teachers, Statistics government web resources and services. Natural Hazard Statistics Statistics U.S. Summaries 78-Year List of Severe Weather Fatalities Preliminary Hazardous Weather Statistics for 2017 Now

  20. Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... English Español Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? KidsHealth / For Parents / Can the Weather Affect My ... Asthma? Print Can the Weather Affect My Child's Asthma? Yes. Weather conditions can bring on asthma symptoms. ...

  1. The Influence of Weather Variation, Urban Design and Built Environment on Objectively Measured Sedentary Behaviour in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katapally, Tarun Reddy; Rainham, Daniel; Muhajarine, Nazeem

    2016-01-01

    With emerging evidence indicating that independent of physical activity, sedentary behaviour (SB) can be detrimental to health, researchers are increasingly aiming to understand the influence of multiple contexts such as urban design and built environment on SB. However, weather variation, a factor that continuously interacts with all other environmental variables, has been consistently underexplored. This study investigated the influence of diverse environmental exposures (including weather variation, urban design and built environment) on SB in children. This cross-sectional observational study is part of an active living research initiative set in the Canadian prairie city of Saskatoon. Saskatoon's neighbourhoods were classified based on urban street design into grid-pattern, fractured grid-pattern and curvilinear types of neighbourhoods. Diverse environmental exposures were measured including, neighbourhood built environment, and neighbourhood and household socioeconomic environment. Actical accelerometers were deployed between April and June 2010 (spring-summer) to derive SB of 331 10-14 year old children in 25 one week cycles. Each cycle of accelerometry was conducted on a different cohort of children within the total sample. Accelerometer data were matched with localized weather patterns derived from Environment Canada weather data. Multilevel modeling using Hierarchical Linear and Non-linear Modeling software was conducted by factoring in weather variation to depict the influence of diverse environmental exposures on SB. Both weather variation and urban design played a significant role in SB. After factoring in weather variation, it was observed that children living in grid-pattern neighbourhoods closer to the city centre (with higher diversity of destinations) were less likely to be sedentary. This study demonstrates a methodology that could be replicated to integrate geography-specific weather patterns with existing cross-sectional accelerometry data to

  2. Space Weather Services of Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, K.; Hong, S.; Jangsuk, C.; Dong Kyu, K.; Jinyee, C.; Yeongoh, C.

    2016-12-01

    The Korean Space Weather Center (KSWC) of the National Radio Research Agency (RRA) is a government agency which is the official source of space weather information for Korean Government and the primary action agency of emergency measure to severe space weather condition. KSWC's main role is providing alerts, watches, and forecasts in order to minimize the space weather impacts on both of public and commercial sectors of satellites, aviation, communications, navigations, power grids, and etc. KSWC is also in charge of monitoring the space weather condition and conducting research and development for its main role of space weather operation in Korea. In this study, we will present KSWC's recent efforts on development of application-oriented space weather research products and services on user needs, and introduce new international collaborative projects, such as IPS-Driven Enlil model, DREAM model estimating electron in satellite orbit, global network of DSCOVR and STEREO satellites tracking, and ARMAS (Automated Radiation Measurement for Aviation Safety).

  3. Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP): Technical Assistance Summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hollander, A.

    2014-09-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) Weatherization and Intergovernmental Programs Office (WIPO) launched the Weatherization Innovation Pilot Program (WIPP) to accelerate innovations in whole-house weatherization and advance DOE's goal of increasing the energy efficiency and health and safety of low-income residences without the utilization of additional taxpayer funding. Sixteen WIPP grantees were awarded a total of $30 million in Weatherization Assistance Program (WAP) funds in September 2010. These projects focused on: including nontraditional partners in weatherization service delivery; leveraging significant non-federal funding; and improving the effectiveness of low-income weatherization through the use of new materials, technologies, behavior-change models, and processes.

  4. A Analysis of the Development of Weather Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mroz, Paul John

    Weather information in all forms is poorly understood and often misinterpreted by the general public. Weather literacy is necessary for everyone if critical weather messages, designed to save lives and protect property, are to be effective. The purpose of this study was to seek content and causal evidence for a developmental concept of Weather Information Processing that was consistent with Piagetian Cognitive Stages of Development. Three ordinal Content Stages Of Weather Information Processing (phenomena, process and mechanism) and three ordinal Causal Explanation Stages Of Weather Information Processing (non-real, natural, and scientifically valid abstract ideas) were explored for their relationship with Piaget's Pre-Operational, Concrete and Formal Stages of Development. One hundred and fifty -five elementary and secondary school students from two school districts were administered a written Piagetian exam. Commonly available television weather programs were categorized, randomly assigned and viewed by 42 randomly selected students who were administered three Piagetian tasks. Students were clinically interviewed for the level of content information and causal explanations (reasoning). Results indicated that content information and causal reasoning of students to televised weather information is significantly related (p Cognitive Stages of Development. Two Piagetian logic operations (seriation and correlation) were established as significantly different (p Information Processing and have implications for teaching and presenting weather information to the public.

  5. WIRE: Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heimo, A.; Cattin, R.; Calpini, B.

    2010-09-01

    Renewable energies such as wind and solar energy will play an important, even decisive role in order to mitigate and adapt to the projected dramatic consequences to our society and environment due to climate change. Due to shrinking fossil resources, the transition to more and more renewable energy shares is unavoidable. But, as wind and solar energy are strongly dependent on highly variable weather processes, increased penetration rates will also lead to strong fluctuations in the electricity grid which need to be balanced. Proper and specific forecasting of ‘energy weather' is a key component for this. Therefore, it is today appropriate to scientifically address the requirements to provide the best possible specific weather information for forecasting the energy production of wind and solar power plants within the next minutes up to several days. Towards such aims, Weather Intelligence will first include developing dedicated post-processing algorithms coupled with weather prediction models and with past and/or online measurement data especially remote sensing observations. Second, it will contribute to investigate the difficult relationship between the highly intermittent weather dependent power production and concurrent capacities such as transport and distribution of this energy to the end users. Selecting, resp. developing surface-based and satellite remote sensing techniques well adapted to supply relevant information to the specific post-processing algorithms for solar and wind energy production short-term forecasts is a major task with big potential. It will lead to improved energy forecasts and help to increase the efficiency of the renewable energy productions while contributing to improve the management and presumably the design of the energy grids. The second goal will raise new challenges as this will require first from the energy producers and distributors definitions of the requested input data and new technologies dedicated to the management of

  6. Solar ramping distributions over multiple timescales and weather patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Hummon, Marissa; Orwig, Kirsten [National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO (United States)

    2011-07-01

    As greater amounts of solar power are included in the power system it is becoming increasingly important to have a better characterization of the variability of solar power over the timescales that are relevant to power system operations. In this paper, we examine the distribution of ramp events that occur in global horizontal irradiance measurements from a number of sites in the western United States. The distributions are found to be significantly non-normal over multiple timescales from 1 minute to 1 hour. A hyberbolic distribution is suggested for more accurately representing the observed ramp distributions. Additionally, the ramp distributions that occur during different classifications of weather patterns are characterized and significant differences are observed between patterns. (orig.)

  7. Temporal, seasonal and weather effects on cycle volume: an ecological study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tin Tin Sandar

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cycling has the potential to provide health, environmental and economic benefits but the level of cycling is very low in New Zealand and many other countries. Adverse weather is often cited as a reason why people do not cycle. This study investigated temporal and seasonal variability in cycle volume and its association with weather in Auckland, New Zealand's largest city. Methods Two datasets were used: automated cycle count data collected on Tamaki Drive in Auckland by using ZELT Inductive Loop Eco-counters and weather data (gust speed, rain, temperature, sunshine duration available online from the National Climate Database. Analyses were undertaken using data collected over one year (1 January to 31 December 2009. Normalised cycle volumes were used in correlation and regression analyses to accommodate differences by hour of the day and day of the week and holiday. Results In 2009, 220,043 bicycles were recorded at the site. There were significant differences in mean hourly cycle volumes by hour of the day, day type and month of the year (p p Conclusions There are temporal and seasonal variations in cycle volume in Auckland and weather significantly influences hour-to-hour and day-to-day variations in cycle volume. Our findings will help inform future cycling promotion activities in Auckland.

  8. Space Weather: Where Is The Beef?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koskinen, H. E. J.

    Space weather has become a highly fashionable topic in solar-terrestrial physics. It is perhaps the best tool to popularise the field and it has contributed significantly to the dialogue between solar, magnetospheric, and ionospheric scientist, and also to mu- tual understanding between science and engineering communities. While these are laudable achievements, it is important for the integrity of scientific space weather re- search to recognise the central open questions in the physics of space weather and the progress toward solving them. We still lack sufficient understanding of the solar physics to be able to tell in advance when and where a solar eruption will take place and whether it will turn to a geoeffective event. There is much to do to understand ac- celeration of solar energetic particles and propagation of solar mass ejecta toward the Earth. After more than 40 years of research scientific discussion of energy and plasma transfer through the magnetopause still deals mostly with qualitative issues and the rapid acceleration processes in the magnetosphere are not yet explained in a satisfac- tory way. Also the coupling to the ionosphere and from there to the strong induction effects on ground is another complex of research problems. For space weather science the beef is in the investigation of these and related topics, not in marketing half-useful space weather products to hesitant customers.

  9. [Influence of weather in the incidence of acute myocardial infarction in Galicia (Spain)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-García, José Manuel; Dosil Díaz, Olga; Taboada Hidalgo, Juan José; Fernández, José Ramón; Sánchez-Santos, Luis

    2015-08-07

    To assess the interactions between weather and the impact of each individual meteorological parameters in the incidence of acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) in Galicia. Retrospective study analyzing the number of AMI diagnosed and transferred to the hospital by the Emergencies Sanitary System of Galicia between 2002 and 2009. We included patients with clinical and ECG findings of AMI. The correlation between 10-minute meteorological variables (temperature, humidity, pressure, accumulated rainfall and wind speed) recorded by MeteoGalicia and the incidence of AMI was assessed. A total of 4,717 AMI were registered (72.8% men, 27.2% women). No seasonal variations were found. No significant correlations were detected with regard to average daily temperature (P=.683) or wind speed (P=.895). Correlation between atmospheric pressure and incidence of AMI was significant (P<.005), as well as with the daily relative humidity average (P=.005). Our study showed a statistical significant association with atmospheric pressure and with the daily relative humidity average. Since the local conditions of weather are widely variable, future studies should establish the relationship between weather patterns (including combinations of meteorological parameters), rather than seasonal variations, and the incidence of AMI. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  10. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick; Ellerbæk Nielsen, Jesper; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Rasmussen, Michael R.; Molnar, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology

  11. The Weather in Richmond

    OpenAIRE

    Harless, William Edwin

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT: The Weather in Richmond is a short documentary about the Oilers, the football team at Richmond High School in downtown Richmond, California, as they struggle in 2012 with the legacy of winning no games, with the exception of a forfeit, in two years. The video documents the city of Richmond’s poverty and violence, but it also is an account of the city’s cultural diversity, of the city’s industrial history and of the hopes of some of the people who grow up there. The...

  12. Combating bad weather

    CERN Document Server

    Mukhopadhyay, Sudipta

    2015-01-01

    Every year lives and properties are lost in road accidents. About one-fourth of these accidents are due to low vision in foggy weather. At present, there is no algorithm that is specifically designed for the removal of fog from videos. Application of a single-image fog removal algorithm over each video frame is a time-consuming and costly affair. It is demonstrated that with the intelligent use of temporal redundancy, fog removal algorithms designed for a single image can be extended to the real-time video application. Results confirm that the presented framework used for the extension of the

  13. Weather Balloon Ascent Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denny, Mark

    2016-05-01

    The physics of a weather balloon is analyzed. The surprising aspect of the motion of these balloons is that they ascend to great altitudes (typically 35 km) at a more or less constant rate. Such behavior is not surprising near the ground—say for a helium-filled party balloon rising from street level to the top of the Empire State building—but it is unexpected for a balloon that rises to altitudes where the air is rarefied. We show from elementary physical laws why the ascent rate is approximately constant.

  14. Weather Worlding: Learning with the Elements in Early Childhood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney, Tonya

    2018-01-01

    In the context of challenges posed by climate change, this paper draws attention to the significance of children's relationship with weather. The paper contends that it is time to engage more closely with children's weather relations when developing and experimenting with new environmental pedagogies. Furthermore, it is argued that there is a need…

  15. NASA Space Weather Center Services: Potential for Space Weather Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yihua; Kuznetsova, Masha; Pulkkinen, Antti; Taktakishvili, A.; Mays, M. L.; Chulaki, A.; Lee, H.; Hesse, M.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Space Weather Center's primary objective is to provide the latest space weather information and forecasting for NASA's robotic missions and its partners and to bring space weather knowledge to the public. At the same time, the tools and services it possesses can be invaluable for research purposes. Here we show how our archive and real-time modeling of space weather events can aid research in a variety of ways, with different classification criteria. We will list and discuss major CME events, major geomagnetic storms, and major SEP events that occurred during the years 2010 - 2012. Highlights of major tools/resources will be provided.

  16. Effects of Space Weathering on Reflectance Spectra of Ureilites: A Proof-of-Concept Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, C. A.; Gillis-Davis, J.; Cloutis, E.; Applin, D.; Hibbits, C.; Klima, R.; Christoffersen, R.; Fries, M.; Decker, S.

    2017-07-01

    Space weathering and spectral studies of three ureilitic samples show that space weathering causes significant changes in UV-VIS-IR spectra and Raman spectra. Changes due to amorphization of carbon could disguise ureilitic asteroids as CC-like.

  17. Concept of Operations for Road Weather Connected Vehicle and Automated Vehicle Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-21

    Weather has a significant impact on the operations of the nation's roadway system year round. These weather events translate into changes in traffic conditions, roadway safety, travel reliability, operational effectiveness and productivity. It is, th...

  18. Vodcasting Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, Carolyn; Erickson, P. J.; Needles, M.

    2009-01-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of vodcasts (video podcasts) produced by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, MA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, MA). This paper discusses the production and distribution of the series via Webcast, Youtube, and other avenues. It also presents preliminary evaluation of the effectiveness and outreach of the project through feedback from both formal and information education venues. The vodcast series is linked to the NASA Living With a Star Targeted Research and Technology project award "Multi-Instrument Investigation of Inner-Magnetospheric/Ionosphere Disturbances.” It is being carried out by Principal Investigator Dr. John Foster, under the auspices of NASA Grant # NNX06AB86G. The research involves using ionospheric total electron content (TEC) observations to study the location, extent, and duration of perturbations within stormtime ionospheric electric fields at mid- to low latitudes. It combines ground-based global positioning system (GPS) TEC data, incoherent scatter radar measurements of the mid-latitude ionospheric state, and DMSP satellite observations to characterize conditions which lead to severe low-latitude ionospheric perturbations. Each vodcast episode covers a certain aspect of space weather and the research program.

  19. Weatherization Apprenticeship Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, Eric J

    2012-12-18

    Weatherization improvement services will be provided to Native people by Native people. The proposed project will recruit, train and hire two full-time weatherization technicians who will improve the energy efficiency of homes of Alaska Natives/American Indians residing in the Indian areas, within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska. The Region includes Anchorage as well as 8 small tribal villages: The Native Villages of Eklutna, Knik, Chickaloon, Seldovia, Ninilchik, Kenaitze, Salamatof, and Tyonek. This project will be a partnership between three entities, with Cook Inlet Tribal Council (CITC) as the lead agency: CITCA's Employment and Training Services Department, Cook Inlet Housing Authority and Alaska Works Partnership. Additionally, six of the eight tribal villages within the Cook Inlet Region of Alaska have agreed to work with the project in order to improve the energy efficiency of their tribally owned buildings and homes. The remaining three villages will be invited to participate in the establishment of an intertribal consortium through this project. Tribal homes and buildings within Anchorage fall under Cook Inlet Region, Inc. (CIRI) tribal authority.

  20. Solar weather monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-F. Hochedez

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Space Weather nowcasting and forecasting require solar observations because geoeffective disturbances can arise from three types of solar phenomena: coronal mass ejections (CMEs, flares and coronal holes. For each, we discuss their definition and review their precursors in terms of remote sensing and in-situ observations. The objectives of Space Weather require some specific instrumental features, which we list using the experience gained from the daily operations of the Solar Influences Data analysis Centre (SIDC at the Royal Observatory of Belgium. Nowcasting requires real-time monitoring to assess quickly and reliably the severity of any potentially geoeffective solar event. Both research and forecasting could incorporate more observations in order to feed case studies and data assimilation respectively. Numerical models will result in better predictions of geomagnetic storms and solar energetic particle (SEP events. We review the data types available to monitor solar activity and interplanetary conditions. They come from space missions and ground observatories and range from sequences of dopplergrams, magnetograms, white-light, chromospheric, coronal, coronagraphic and radio images, to irradiance and in-situ time-series. Their role is summarized together with indications about current and future solar monitoring instruments.

  1. Weathering of rock 'Ginger'

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    One of the more unusual rocks at the site is Ginger, located southeast of the lander. Parts of it have the reddest color of any material in view, whereas its rounded lobes are gray and relatively unweathered. These color differences are brought out in the inset, enhanced at the upper right. In the false color image at the lower right, the shape of the visible-wavelength spectrum (related to the abundance of weathered ferric iron minerals) is indicated by the hue of the rocks. Blue indicates relatively unweathered rocks. Typical soils and drift, which are heavily weathered, are shown in green and flesh tones. The very red color in the creases in the rock surface correspond to a crust of ferric minerals. The origin of the rock is uncertain; the ferric crust may have grown underneath the rock, or it may cement pebbles together into a conglomerate. Ginger will be a target of future super-resolution studies to better constrain its origin.Mars Pathfinder is the second in NASA's Discovery program of low-cost spacecraft with highly focused science goals. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, developed and manages the Mars Pathfinder mission for NASA's Office of Space Science, Washington, D.C. The Imager for Mars Pathfinder (IMP) was developed by the University of Arizona Lunar and Planetary Laboratory under contract to JPL. Peter Smith is the Principal Investigator. JPL is an operating division of the California Institute of Technology (Caltech).

  2. Noodles: a tool for visualization of numerical weather model ensemble uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanyal, Jibonananda; Zhang, Song; Dyer, Jamie; Mercer, Andrew; Amburn, Philip; Moorhead, Robert J

    2010-01-01

    Numerical weather prediction ensembles are routinely used for operational weather forecasting. The members of these ensembles are individual simulations with either slightly perturbed initial conditions or different model parameterizations, or occasionally both. Multi-member ensemble output is usually large, multivariate, and challenging to interpret interactively. Forecast meteorologists are interested in understanding the uncertainties associated with numerical weather prediction; specifically variability between the ensemble members. Currently, visualization of ensemble members is mostly accomplished through spaghetti plots of a single mid-troposphere pressure surface height contour. In order to explore new uncertainty visualization methods, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to create a 48-hour, 18 member parameterization ensemble of the 13 March 1993 "Superstorm". A tool was designed to interactively explore the ensemble uncertainty of three important weather variables: water-vapor mixing ratio, perturbation potential temperature, and perturbation pressure. Uncertainty was quantified using individual ensemble member standard deviation, inter-quartile range, and the width of the 95% confidence interval. Bootstrapping was employed to overcome the dependence on normality in the uncertainty metrics. A coordinated view of ribbon and glyph-based uncertainty visualization, spaghetti plots, iso-pressure colormaps, and data transect plots was provided to two meteorologists for expert evaluation. They found it useful in assessing uncertainty in the data, especially in finding outliers in the ensemble run and therefore avoiding the WRF parameterizations that lead to these outliers. Additionally, the meteorologists could identify spatial regions where the uncertainty was significantly high, allowing for identification of poorly simulated storm environments and physical interpretation of these model issues.

  3. Ionospheric TEC Weather Map Over South America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, H.; Wrasse, C. M.; Denardini, C. M.; Pádua, M. B.; de Paula, E. R.; Costa, S. M. A.; Otsuka, Y.; Shiokawa, K.; Monico, J. F. Galera; Ivo, A.; Sant'Anna, N.

    2016-11-01

    Ionospheric weather maps using the total electron content (TEC) monitored by ground-based Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) receivers over South American continent, TECMAP, have been operationally produced by Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais's Space Weather Study and Monitoring Program (Estudo e Monitoramento Brasileiro de Clima Especial) since 2013. In order to cover the whole continent, four GNSS receiver networks, (Rede Brasileiro de Monitoramento Contínuo) RBMC/Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, Low-latitude Ionospheric Sensor Network, International GNSS Service, and Red Argentina de Monitoreo Satelital Continuo, in total 140 sites, have been used. TECMAPs with a time resolution of 10 min are produced in 12 h time delay. Spatial resolution of the map is rather low, varying between 50 and 500 km depending on the density of the observation points. Large day-to-day variabilities of the equatorial ionization anomaly have been observed. Spatial gradient of TEC from the anomaly trough (total electron content unit, 1 TECU = 1016 el m-2 (TECU) 80) causes a large ionospheric range delay in the GNSS positioning system. Ionospheric plasma bubbles, their seeding and development, could be monitored. This plasma density (spatial and temporal) variability causes not only the GNSS-based positioning error but also radio wave scintillations. Monitoring of these phenomena by TEC mapping becomes an important issue for space weather concern for high-technology positioning system and telecommunication.

  4. Space Weather- Physics and Effects

    CERN Document Server

    Bothmer, Volker

    2007-01-01

    This book is a state-of-the-art review on the physics of space weather and on space weather impacts on human technology, including manned spaceflight. With contributions from a team of international experts, this comprehensive work covers all aspects of space weather physical processes, and all known aspects of space hazards from humans, both in space and on Earth. Space Weather - Physics and Effects provides the first comprehensive, scientific background of space storms caused by the sun and its impact on geospace focuses on weather issues that have become vital for the development of nationwide technological infrastructures explains magnetic storms on Earth, including the effects of EUV radiation on the atmosphere is an invaluable aid in establishing real-time weather forecasts details the threat that solar effects might have on modern telecommunication systems, including national power grid systems, aircraft and manned spaceflight.

  5. A study of the short-term associations between hospital admissions and mortality from heart failure and meteorological variables in Hong Kong: Weather and heart failure in Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goggins, William B; Chan, Emily Yy

    2017-02-01

    Previous research has shown winter peaks for both hospitalizations and mortality from HF, but few studies have examined the association between meteorological parameters and HF. Daily HF admissions to Hong Kong public hospitals, which cover about 83% of total admissions, and daily HF deaths, were obtained for 2002-2011. Generalized additive (Poisson) regression models were used with daily HF admissions/mortality as outcomes and daily mean temperature, humidity, and wind speed as predictors, while controlling for pollutant levels, time trend, season, day of the week, and holiday. Non-linear distributed lag functions were used for predictors to allow for non-linear and delayed associations. Lower mean daily temperatures were strongly associated with increased HF admissions and mortality with a cumulative (to 23days) relative risk (RR) (95% confidence interval (CI)) for HF admissions of 2.63 (2.43, 2.84) for an 11°C. vs. a 25°Cday, and cumulative (42days) RR (95% CI)=3.13 (1.90, 5.16) for HF mortality. The association with cold weather was stronger among older age groups and for new hospitalizations compared to recurrent ones, while presence of co-morbidities did not modify the association. Both high and low relative humidity were modestly associated with more admissions. Both HF admissions and mortality in Hong Kong were very strongly associated with cold temperatures. Reducing exposure to cold temperatures among those at risk for HF has the potential to reduce hospitalizations and mortality. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. The influence of meteorological variables on the development of deep venous thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen K; Simpson, A John; Murchison, John T

    2009-10-01

    The influence of weather on deep venous thrombosis (DVT) incidence remains controversial. We aimed to characterize the temporal association between DVT and meteorological variables including atmospheric pressure. Data relating to hospital admissions with DVT in Scotland were collected retrospectively for a 20 year period for which corresponding meteorological recordings were available. Weather variables were calculated as weighted daily averages to adjust for variations in population density. Seasonal variation in DVT and short-term effects of weather variables on the relative risk of developing DVT were assess using Poisson regression modelling. The models allowed for the identification of lag periods between variation in the weather and DVT presentation. A total of 37,336 cases of DVT were recorded. There was significant seasonal variation in DVT with a winter peak. Seasonal variation in wind speed and temperature were significantly associated with seasonal variation in DVT. When studying more immediate meteorological influences, low atmospheric pressure, high wind speed and high rainfall were significantly associated with an increased risk of DVT approximately 9-10 days later. The effect was most strikingly demonstrated for atmospheric pressure, every 10 millibar decrease in pressure being associated with a 2.1% increase in relative risk of DVT. Alterations in weather have a small but significant impact upon the incidence of DVT. DVT is particularly associated with reduction in atmospheric pressure giving weight to the hypothesis that reduced cabin pressure in long haul flights contributes to DVT. These findings have implications for our understanding of the pathogenesis of DVT.

  7. Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc; hide

    2016-01-01

    Extreme events are the aspects of climate to which human society is most sensitive. Due to both their severity and their rarity, extreme events can challenge the capacity of physical, social, economic and political infrastructures, turning natural events into human disasters. Yet, because they are low frequency events, the science of extreme events is very challenging. Among the challenges is the difficulty of connecting extreme events to longer-term, large-scale variability and trends in the climate system, including anthropogenic climate change. How can we best quantify the risks posed by extreme weather events, both in the current climate and in the warmer and different climates to come? How can we better predict them? What can we do to reduce the harm done by such events? In response to these questions, the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate has been created at Columbia University in New York City (extreme weather.columbia.edu). This Initiative is a University-wide activity focused on understanding the risks to human life, property, infrastructure, communities, institutions, ecosystems, and landscapes from extreme weather events, both in the present and future climates, and on developing solutions to mitigate those risks. In May 2015,the Initiative held its first science workshop, entitled Extreme Weather and Climate: Hazards, Impacts, Actions. The purpose of the workshop was to define the scope of the Initiative and tremendously broad intellectual footprint of the topic indicated by the titles of the presentations (see Table 1). The intent of the workshop was to stimulate thought across disciplinary lines by juxtaposing talks whose subjects differed dramatically. Each session concluded with question and answer panel sessions. Approximately, 150 people were in attendance throughout the day. Below is a brief synopsis of each presentation. The synopses collectively reflect the variety and richness of the emerging extreme event research agenda.

  8. Simulation of Daily Weather Data Using Theoretical Probability Distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruhn, J. A.; Fry, W. E.; Fick, G. W.

    1980-09-01

    A computer simulation model was constructed to supply daily weather data to a plant disease management model for potato late blight. In the weather model Monte Carlo techniques were employed to generate daily values of precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation. Each weather variable is described by a known theoretical probability distribution but the values of the parameters describing each distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rainfall. Precipitation occurrence is described by a first-order Markov chain. The amount of rain, given that rain has occurred, is described by a gamma probability distribution. Maximum and minimum temperature are simulated with a trivariate normal probability distribution involving maximum temperature on the previous day, maximum temperature on the current day and minimum temperature on the current day. Parameter values for this distribution are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the previous day. Both minimum relative humidity and total solar radiation are assumed to be normally distributed. The values of the parameters describing the distribution of minimum relative humidity is dependent on rainfall occurrence on the previous day and current day. Parameter values for total solar radiation are dependent on the occurrence of rain on the current day. The assumptions made during model construction were found to be appropriate for actual weather data from Geneva, New York. The performance of the weather model was evaluated by comparing the cumulative frequency distributions of simulated weather data with the distributions of actual weather data from Geneva, New York and Fort Collins, Colorado. For each location, simulated weather data were similar to actual weather data in terms of mean response, variability and autocorrelation. The possible applications of this model when used with models of other components of the agro-ecosystem are discussed.

  9. Artificial changes of weather conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozin, I.D.; Vasil'ev, I.V.; Fedulina, I.N.; Zakizhan, Z.Z.; Khalimov, R.A.

    2005-01-01

    Unfavorable weather conditions have undesirable ecological consequences, causes remarkable economical damage. In the paper authors consider physical factors and technical methods of influence on cloud formation. (author)

  10. The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Where Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, T J; Potter, G L; Williamson, D L; Cederwall, R T; Boyle, J S; Fiorino, M; Hnilo, J J; Olson, J G; Xie, S; Yio, J J

    2003-11-21

    To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands, in particular, that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provied that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be similarly tested. In order to further this method for evaluating and analyzing parameterizations in climate GCMs, the USDOE is funding a joint venture of its Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT). This article elaborates the scientific rationale for CAPT, discusses technical aspects of its methodology, and presents examples of its implementation in a representative climate GCM. Numerical weather prediction methods show promise for improving parameterizations in climate GCMs.

  11. Increasing crop diversity mitigates weather variations and improves yield stability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudin, Amélie C M; Tolhurst, Tor N; Ker, Alan P; Janovicek, Ken; Tortora, Cristina; Martin, Ralph C; Deen, William

    2015-01-01

    Cropping sequence diversification provides a systems approach to reduce yield variations and improve resilience to multiple environmental stresses. Yield advantages of more diverse crop rotations and their synergistic effects with reduced tillage are well documented, but few studies have quantified the impact of these management practices on yields and their stability when soil moisture is limiting or in excess. Using yield and weather data obtained from a 31-year long term rotation and tillage trial in Ontario, we tested whether crop rotation diversity is associated with greater yield stability when abnormal weather conditions occur. We used parametric and non-parametric approaches to quantify the impact of rotation diversity (monocrop, 2-crops, 3-crops without or with one or two legume cover crops) and tillage (conventional or reduced tillage) on yield probabilities and the benefits of crop diversity under different soil moisture and temperature scenarios. Although the magnitude of rotation benefits varied with crops, weather patterns and tillage, yield stability significantly increased when corn and soybean were integrated into more diverse rotations. Introducing small grains into short corn-soybean rotation was enough to provide substantial benefits on long-term soybean yields and their stability while the effects on corn were mostly associated with the temporal niche provided by small grains for underseeded red clover or alfalfa. Crop diversification strategies increased the probability of harnessing favorable growing conditions while decreasing the risk of crop failure. In hot and dry years, diversification of corn-soybean rotations and reduced tillage increased yield by 7% and 22% for corn and soybean respectively. Given the additional advantages associated with cropping system diversification, such a strategy provides a more comprehensive approach to lowering yield variability and improving the resilience of cropping systems to multiple environmental

  12. Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mark J. Schroeder; Monte Glovinsky; Virgil F. Hendricks; Frank C. Hood; Melvin K. Hull; Henry L. Jacobson; Robert Kirkpatrick; Daniel W. Krueger; Lester P. Mallory; Albert G. Oeztel; Robert H. Reese; Leo A. Sergius; Charles E. Syverson

    1964-01-01

    Recognizing that weather is an important factor in the spread of both urban and wildland fires, a study was made of the synoptic weather patterns and types which produce strong winds, low relative humidities, high temperatures, and lack of rainfall--the conditions conducive to rapid fire spread. Such historic fires as the San Francisco fire of 1906, the Berkeley fire...

  13. Activities of NICT space weather project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murata, Ken T.; Nagatsuma, Tsutomu; Watari, Shinichi; Shinagawa, Hiroyuki; Ishii, Mamoru

    NICT (National Institute of Information and Communications Technology) has been in charge of space weather forecast service in Japan for more than 20 years. The main target region of the space weather is the geo-space in the vicinity of the Earth where human activities are dominant. In the geo-space, serious damages of satellites, international space stations and astronauts take place caused by energetic particles or electromagnetic disturbances: the origin of the causes is dynamically changing of solar activities. Positioning systems via GPS satellites are also im-portant recently. Since the most significant effect of positioning error comes from disturbances of the ionosphere, it is crucial to estimate time-dependent modulation of the electron density profiles in the ionosphere. NICT is one of the 13 members of the ISES (International Space Environment Service), which is an international assembly of space weather forecast centers under the UNESCO. With help of geo-space environment data exchanging among the member nations, NICT operates daily space weather forecast service every day to provide informa-tion on forecasts of solar flare, geomagnetic disturbances, solar proton event, and radio-wave propagation conditions in the ionosphere. The space weather forecast at NICT is conducted based on the three methodologies: observations, simulations and informatics (OSI model). For real-time or quasi real-time reporting of space weather, we conduct our original observations: Hiraiso solar observatory to monitor the solar activity (solar flare, coronal mass ejection, and so on), domestic ionosonde network, magnetometer HF radar observations in far-east Siberia, and south-east Asia low-latitude ionosonde network (SEALION). Real-time observation data to monitor solar and solar-wind activities are obtained through antennae at NICT from ACE and STEREO satellites. We have a middle-class super-computer (NEC SX-8R) to maintain real-time computer simulations for solar and solar

  14. Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    April E Reside

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species. METHODOLOGY: We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008. These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year averages of the same climatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.

  15. Comparative Science and Space Weather Around the Heliosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grande, Manuel; Andre, Nicolas; COSPAR/ILWS Roadmap Team

    2016-10-01

    Space weather refers to the variable state of the coupled space environment related to changing conditions on the Sun and in the terrestrial atmosphere. The presentation will focus on the critical missing knowledge or observables needed to significantly advance our modelling and forecasting capabilities throughout the solar system putting these in perspective to the recommendations in the recent COSPAR/ILWS roadmap. The COSPAR/ILWS RoadMap focuses on high-priority challenges in key areas of research leading to a better understanding of the space environment and a demonstrable improvement in the provision of timely, reliable information pertinent to effects on civilian space- and ground-based systems, for all stakeholders around the world. The RoadMap prioritizes those advances that can be made on short, intermediate and decadal time scales, identifying gaps and opportunities from a predominantly, but not exclusively, geocentric perspective. While discussion of space weather effects has so far largely been concerned to the near-Earth environment, there are significant present and future applications to the locations beyond, and to other planets. Most obviously, perhaps, are the radiation hazards experienced by astronauts on the way to, and on the surface of, the Moon and Mars. Indeed, the environment experienced by planetary spacecraft in transit and at their destinations is of course critical to their design and successful operation. The case of forthcoming missions to Jupiter and Europa is an extreme example. Moreover, such craft can provide information which in turn increases our understanding of geospace. One initiative is that under Horizon 2020, Europlanet RI will set up a Europlanet Planetary Space Weather Service (PSWS). PSWS will make five entirely new `toolkits' accessible to the research community and to industrial partners planning for space missions: - a General planetary space weather toolkit; Mars (in support of the ESA ExoMars missions to be launched

  16. Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradford, J.B.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 ?? 8 km2 areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

  17. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 2; Issue 3. The Challenge of Weather Prediction Old and Modern Ways of Weather Forecasting. B N Goswami. Series Article Volume 2 Issue 3 March 1997 pp 8-15. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link:

  18. Regional-seasonal weather forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Abarbanel, H.; Foley, H.; MacDonald, G.; Rothaus, O.; Rudermann, M.; Vesecky, J.

    1980-08-01

    In the interest of allocating heating fuels optimally, the state-of-the-art for seasonal weather forecasting is reviewed. A model using an enormous data base of past weather data is contemplated to improve seasonal forecasts, but present skills do not make that practicable. 90 references. (PSB)

  19. Weatherization Assistance Program Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    2018-02-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Weatherization Assistance Program reduces energy costs for low-income households by increasing the energy e ciency of their homes, while ensuring their health and safety. The Program supports 8,500 jobs and provides weatherization services to approximately 35,000 homes every year using DOE funds.

  20. Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Mathew

    2013-01-01

    The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

  1. Predictability of extreme weather events for NE U.S.: improvement of the numerical prediction using a Bayesian regression approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Hartman, B.; Kallos, G. B.

    2015-12-01

    Weather prediction accuracy has become very important for the Northeast U.S. given the devastating effects of extreme weather events in the recent years. Weather forecasting systems are used towards building strategies to prevent catastrophic losses for human lives and the environment. Concurrently, weather forecast tools and techniques have evolved with improved forecast skill as numerical prediction techniques are strengthened by increased super-computing resources. In this study, we examine the combination of two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) by utilizing a Bayesian regression approach to improve the prediction of extreme weather events for NE U.S. The basic concept behind the Bayesian regression approach is to take advantage of the strengths of two atmospheric modeling systems and, similar to the multi-model ensemble approach, limit their weaknesses which are related to systematic and random errors in the numerical prediction of physical processes. The first part of this study is focused on retrospective simulations of seventeen storms that affected the region in the period 2004-2013. Optimal variances are estimated by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to out-of-sample weather events. The applicability and usefulness of this approach are demonstrated by conducting an error analysis based on in-situ observations from meteorological stations of the National Weather Service (NWS) for wind speed and wind direction, and NCEP Stage IV radar data, mosaicked from the regional multi-sensor for precipitation. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of the modeled-observed pairs for meteorological variables using various combinations of the sixteen events as predictors of the seventeenth. This presentation will illustrate the implemented methodology and the obtained results for wind speed, wind direction and precipitation, as well as set the research steps that will be

  2. Multi-decadal classification of synoptic weather types, observed trends and links to rainfall characteristics over Saudi Arabia

    KAUST Repository

    El Kenawy, Ahmed M.

    2014-09-15

    An automated version of the Lamb weather type classification scheme was employed to characterize daily circulation conditions in Saudi Arabia from 1960 to 2005. Daily gridded fields of sea level pressure (SLP) from both the NCEP/NCAR and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalysis data (ERA40) were used as input data for this classification. The output catalog included 10 basic types, which describe the direction and vorticity of airflow in the region (i.e., cyclonic, anti-cyclonic, and directional). In general, our findings indicate that cyclonic (C) days represent the most frequent type among all days, with 69.2% of the annual count of days from 1960 to 2005, followed by SE directional flows (21%). It was also determined that airflows originating from the Indian Ocean (i.e., S, SE, and E) are more frequent than those from the Mediterranean and Red Seas (i.e., W, NW, and SW). The defined weather types were assessed for the presence of inter-annual and intra-annual trends using the Mann–Kendall tau statistic. The trend analysis suggests statistically significant changes in the frequencies of a majority of the weather types from 1960 to 2005. The relationship between the daily occurrence of rainfall and the frequency of individual weather types was also described using daily rainfall data from a network of 87 weather observatories. Results demonstrate that increasing frequencies of weather types connected to easterly inflows support higher precipitation amounts over the study domain. Characterizing the association between atmospheric circulation patterns and rainfall in Saudi Arabia is important for understanding potential impacts related to climate variability and also for developing circulation-based downscaling methods.

  3. Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

    2017-04-01

    Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

  4. Development of positron annihilation spectroscopy to test accelerated weathering of protective polymer coatings

    CERN Document Server

    Zhang, R; Chen, H M; Mallon, P; Sandreczki, T C; Richardson, J R; Jean, Y C; Nielsen, B; Suzuki, R; Ohdaira, T

    2000-01-01

    A variable mono-energetic positron beam with a computer-controlled system has recently been constructed at the University of Missouri-Kansas City for weathering studies of polymeric coatings. The beam is designed to measure the S-parameter from Doppler-broadening energy spectra and the sub-nanometer defect properties from positron annihilation lifetimes (PAL). Significant variations of S-parameter and ortho-positronium intensity in coatings, as obtained from the newly built beam and from the Electrotechnical Laboratory's beam, respectively, are observed as a function of depth and exposure time due to the Xe-light irradiation. A high sensitivity of positron annihilation signal response to the early stage of degradation is observed. Development of positron annihilation spectroscopy to test accelerated weathering of polymeric coatings is discussed.

  5. Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jane Louie Fresco Zamora

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values.

  6. Calibration of Smartphone-Based Weather Measurements Using Pairwise Gossip.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamora, Jane Louie Fresco; Kashihara, Shigeru; Yamaguchi, Suguru

    2015-01-01

    Accurate and reliable daily global weather reports are necessary for weather forecasting and climate analysis. However, the availability of these reports continues to decline due to the lack of economic support and policies in maintaining ground weather measurement systems from where these reports are obtained. Thus, to mitigate data scarcity, it is required to utilize weather information from existing sensors and built-in smartphone sensors. However, as smartphone usage often varies according to human activity, it is difficult to obtain accurate measurement data. In this paper, we present a heuristic-based pairwise gossip algorithm that will calibrate smartphone-based pressure sensors with respect to fixed weather stations as our referential ground truth. Based on actual measurements, we have verified that smartphone-based readings are unstable when observed during movement. Using our calibration algorithm on actual smartphone-based pressure readings, the updated values were significantly closer to the ground truth values.

  7. Artificial weathering of granite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silva Hermo, B.

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This article summarizes a series of artificial weathering tests run on granite designed to: simulate the action of weathering agents on buildings and identify the underlying mechanisms, determine the salt resistance of different types of rock; evaluate consolidation and water-repellent treatment durability; and confirm hypotheses about the origin of salts such as gypsum that are often found in granite buildings. Salt crystallization tests were also conducted, using sodium chloride, sodium sulphate, calcium sulphate and seawater solutions. One of these tests was conducted in a chamber specifically designed to simulate salt spray weathering and another in an SO2 chamber to ascertain whether granite is subject to sulphation. The test results are analyzed and discussed, along with the shortcomings of each type of trial as a method for simulating the decay observed in monuments. The effect of factors such as wet-dry conditions, type of saline solution and the position of the planes of weakness on the type of decay is also addressed.En este trabajo se hace una síntesis de varios ensayos de alteración artificial realizados con rocas graníticas. Estos ensayos tenían distintos objetivos: reproducir las formas de alteración encontradas en los edificios para llegar a conocer los mecanismos que las generan, determinar la resistencia de las diferentes rocas a la acción de las sales, evaluar la durabilidad de tratamientos de consolidación e hidrofugación y constatar hipótesis acerca del origen de algunas sales, como el yeso, que aparecen frecuentemente en edificios graníticos. En los ensayos de cristalización de sales se utilizaron disoluciones de cloruro de sodio, sulfato de sodio, sulfato de calcio y agua de mar. Uno de estos ensayos se llevó a cabo en una cámara especialmente diseñada para reproducir la alteración por aerosol marino y otro se realizó en una cámara de SO2, con el objeto de comprobar si en rocas graníticas se puede producir

  8. Briefing highlights space weather risks to GPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tretkoff, Ernie

    2011-07-01

    Solar storms, which are expected to increase as the Sun nears the most active phase of the solar cycle, can disrupt a variety of technologies on which society relies. Speakers at a 22 June briefing on Capitol Hill in Washington, D. C., focused on how space weather can affect the Global Positioning System (GPS), which is used in a wide range of industries, including commercial air travel, agriculture, national security, and emergency response. Rocky Stone, chief technical pilot for United Airlines, noted that GPS allows more aircraft to be in airspace, saves fuel, and helps aircraft move safely on runways. “Improvements in space weather forecasting need to be pursued,” he said. Precision GPS has also “changed the whole nature of farming,” said Ron Hatch, Director of Navigation Systems, NavCom Technology/John Deere. GPS makes it possible for tractors to be driven in the most efficient paths and for fertilizer and water to be applied precisely to the areas that most need them. Space weather-induced degradation of GPS signals can cause significant loss to farms that rely on GPS. Elizabeth Zimmerman, Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Response and Recovery at the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), described how FEMA relies on GPS for disaster recovery. The agency is developing an operations plan for dealing with space weather, she said.

  9. Constraining Silicate Weathering Processes in an Active Volcanic Complex: Implications for the Long-term Carbon Cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Washington, K.; West, A. J.; Hartmann, J.; Amann, T.; Hosono, T.; Ide, K.

    2017-12-01

    While analyzing geochemical archives and carbon cycle modelling can further our understanding of the role of silicate weathering as a sink in the long-term carbon cycle, it is necessary to study modern weathering processes to inform these efforts. A recent compilation of data from rivers draining basaltic catchments estimates that rock weathering in active volcanic fields (AVFs) consumes atmospheric CO2 approximately three times faster than in inactive volcanic fields (IVFs), suggesting that the eruption and subsequent weathering of large igneous provinces likely played a major role in the carbon cycle in the geologic past [1]. The study demonstrates a significant correlation between catchment mean annual temperature (MAT) and atmospheric CO2 consumption rate for IVFs. However CO2 consumption due to weathering of AVFs is not correlated with MAT as the relationship is complicated by variability in hydrothermal fluxes, reactive surface area, and groundwater flow paths. To investigate the controls on weathering processes in AVFs, we present data for dissolved and solid weathering products from Mount Aso Caldera, Japan. Aso Caldera is an ideal site for studying the how the chemistry of rivers draining an AVF is impacted by high-temperature water/rock interactions, volcanic ash weathering, and varied groundwater flow paths and residence times. Samples were collected over five field seasons from two rivers and their tributaries, cold groundwater springs, and thermal springs. These samples capture the region's temperature and precipitation seasonality. Solid samples of unaltered volcanic rocks, hydrothermally-altered materials, volcanic ash, a soil profile, and suspended and bedload river sediments were also collected. The hydrochemistry of dissolved phases were analyzed at the University of Hamburg, while the mineralogy and geochemical compositions of solid phases were analyzed at the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles. This work will be discussed in the context of

  10. Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tenhumberg, Brigitte; Crone, Elizabeth E; Ramula, Satu; Tyre, Andrew J

    2018-04-01

    Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(λt). Log(λt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time

  11. “It Was Raining All the Time!”: Ex Post Tourist Weather Perceptions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Gössling

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The importance of weather for tourism is now widely recognized. However, no research has so far addressed weather events from retrospective viewpoints, and, in particular, the role of “extreme” events in longer-term holiday memories. To better understand the character of ex post weather experiences and their importance in destination image perceptions and future travel planning behavior, this exploratory study addressed a sample of 50 tourists from three globally important source markets: Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Results indicate that weather events do not dominate long-term memories of tourist experiences. Yet, weather events are important in shaping destination image, with “rain” being the single most important weather variable negatively influencing perceptions. Results also suggest that weather events perceived as extreme can involve considerable emotions. The study of ex post traveler memories consequently makes a valuable contribution to the understanding of the complexity of “extreme weather” events for tourist demand responses.

  12. Aerosol climatology and planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by synoptic weather types

    OpenAIRE

    M. Collaud Coen; E. Weingartner; M. Furger; S. Nyeki; A. S. H. Prévôt; M. Steinbacher; U. Baltensperger

    2011-01-01

    Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration) and trace gases (CO, NOx, SO2) measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l.) have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Schüepp synoptic weather type of the Alps (SYNALP) classification from the Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS) was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the wh...

  13. Influence of Met-Ocean Condition Forecasting Uncertainties on Weather Window Predictions for Offshore Operations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gintautas, Tomas; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

    2017-01-01

    The article briefly presents a novel methodology of weather window estimation for offshore operations and mainly focuses on effects of met-ocean condition forecasting uncertainties on weather window predictions when using the proposed methodology. It is demonstrated that the proposed methodology...... to include stochastic variables, representing met-ocean forecasting uncertainties and the results of such modification are given in terms of predicted weather windows for a selected test case....

  14. Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, Hamish; Evans, Jason P.

    2018-05-01

    High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from - 337 (- 21%) to + 657 (+ 24%) in coastal areas and - 237 (- 12%) to + 1143 (+ 26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from - 11 to + 10 in autumn and - 10 to + 3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.

  15. Powernext weather, benchmark indices for effective weather risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    According to the U.S. Department of Energy, an estimated 25% of the GNP is affected by weather-related events. The variations in temperature - even small ones - can also have long-lasting effects on the operational results of a company. Among other, the Energy supply sector is sensitive to weather risks: a milder or harsher than usual winter leads to a decrease or increase of energy consumption. The price of electricity on power trading facilities like Powernext is especially sensitive to odd changes in temperatures. Powernext and Meteo-France (the French meteorological agency) have joined expertise in order to promote the use of weather indices in term of decision making or underlying of hedging tools to energy actors, end users from any other sector of activity and specialists of the weather risk hedging. The Powernext Weather indices are made from information collected by Meteo-France's main observation network according to the norms of international meteorology, in areas carefully selected. The gross data are submitted to a thorough review allowing the correction of abnormalities and the reconstitution of missing data. Each index is fashioned to take into account the economic activity in the various regions of the country as represented by each region's population. This demographic information represents a fair approximation of the weight of the regional economic activity. This document presents the Powernext/Meteo France partnership for the elaboration of efficient weather-related risk management indices. (J.S.)

  16. Chemical Weathering on Venus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zolotov, Mikhail

    2018-01-01

    Chemical and phase compositions of Venus's surface could reflect history of gas- and fluid-rock interactions, recent and past climate changes, and a loss of water from the Earth's sister planet. The concept of chemical weathering on Venus through gas-solid type reactions has been established in 1960s after the discovery of hot and dense CO2-rich atmosphere inferred from Earth-based and Mariner 2 radio emission data. Initial works suggested carbonation, hydration, and oxidation of exposed igneous rocks and a control (buffering) of atmospheric gases by solid-gas type chemical equilibria in the near-surface lithosphere. Calcite, quartz, wollastonite, amphiboles, and Fe oxides were considered likely secondary minerals. Since the late 1970s, measurements of trace gases in the sub-cloud atmosphere by Pioneer Venus and Venera entry probes and Earth-based infrared spectroscopy doubted the likelihood of hydration and carbonation. The H2O gas content appeared to be low to allow a stable existence of hydrated and a majority of OH-bearing minerals. The concentration of SO2 was too high to allow the stability of calcite and Ca-rich silicates with respect to sulfatization to CaSO4. In 1980s, the supposed ongoing consumption of atmospheric SO2 to sulfates gained support by the detection of an elevated bulk S content at Venera and Vega landing sites. The induced composition of the near-surface atmosphere implied oxidation of ferrous minerals to magnetite and hematite, consistent with the infrared reflectance of surface materials. The likelihood of sulfatization and oxidation has been illustrated in modeling experiments at simulated Venus conditions. Venus's surface morphology suggests that hot surface rocks and fines of mainly mafic composition contacted atmospheric gases during several hundreds of millions years since a global volcanic resurfacing. Some exposed materials could have reacted at higher and lower temperatures in a presence of diverse gases at different altitudinal

  17. Weather regimes over Senegal during the summer monsoon season using self-organizing maps and hierarchical ascendant classification. Part II: interannual time scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gueye, A.K. [ESP, UCAD, Dakar (Senegal); Janicot, Serge; Sultan, Benjamin [LOCEAN/IPSL, IRD, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris cedex 05 (France); Niang, A. [LTI, ESP/UCAD, Dakar (Senegal); Sawadogo, S. [LTI, EPT, Thies (Senegal); Diongue-Niang, A. [ANACIM, Dakar (Senegal); Thiria, S. [LOCEAN/IPSL, UPMC, Paris (France)

    2012-11-15

    The aim of this work is to define over the period 1979-2002 the main synoptic weather regimes relevant for understanding the daily variability of rainfall during the summer monsoon season over Senegal. ''Interannual'' synoptic weather regimes are defined by removing the influence of the mean 1979-2002 seasonal cycle. This is different from Part I where the seasonal evolution of each year was removed, then removing also the contribution of interannual variability. As in Part I, the self-organizing maps approach, a clustering methodology based on non-linear artificial neural network, is combined with a hierarchical ascendant classification to compute these regimes. Nine weather regimes are identified using the mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind field as variables. The composite circulation patterns of all these nine weather regimes are very consistent with the associated anomaly patterns of precipitable water, mid-troposphere vertical velocity and rainfall. They are also consistent with the distribution of rainfall extremes. These regimes have been then gathered into different groups. A first group of four regimes is included in an inner circuit and is characterized by a modulation of the semi-permanent trough located along the western coast of West Africa and an opposite modulation on the east. This circuit is important because it associates the two wettest and highly persistent weather regimes over Senegal with the driest and the most persistent one. One derivation of this circuit is highlighted, including the two driest regimes and the most persistent one, what can provide important dry sequences occurrence. An exit of this circuit is characterised by a filling of the Saharan heat low. An entry into the main circuit includes a southward location of the Saharan heat low followed by its deepening. The last weather regime is isolated from the other ones and it has no significant impact on Senegal. It is present in June and September, and

  18. Does Silicate Weathering of Loess Affect Atmospheric CO2?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, S. P.

    2002-12-01

    Weathering of glacial loess may be a significant, yet unrecognized, component of the carbon cycle. Glaciers produce fine-grained sediment, exposing vast amounts of mineral surface area to weathering processes, yet silicate mineral weathering rates at glacier beds and of glacial till are not high. Thus, despite the tremendous potential for glaciers to influence global weathering rates and atmospheric CO2 levels, this effect has not been demonstrated. Loess, comprised of silt-clay sizes, may be the key glacial deposit in which silicate weathering rates are high. Loess is transported by wind off braid plains of rivers, and deposited broadly (order 100 km from the source) in vegetated areas. Both the fine grain size, and hence large mineral surface area, and presence of vegetation should render loess deposits highly susceptible to silicate weathering. These deposits effectively extend the geochemical impact of glaciation in time and space, and bring rock flour into conditions conducive to chemical weathering. A simple 1-d model of silicate weathering fluxes from a soil profile demonstrates the potential of loess deposition to enhance CO2 consumption. At each time step, computed mineral dissolution (using anorthite and field-based rate constants) modifies the size of mineral grains within the soil. In the case of a stable soil surface, this results in a gradual decline in weathering fluxes and CO2 consumption through time, as finer grain sizes dissolve away. Computed weathering fluxes for a typical loess, with an initial mean grain size of 25 μm, are an order of magnitude greater than fluxes from a non-loess soil that differs only in having a mean grain size of 320 μm. High weathering fluxes are maintained through time if loess is continually deposited. Deposition rates as low as 0.01 mm/yr (one loess grain thickness per year) can lead to a doubling of CO2 consumption rates within 5 ka. These results suggest that even modest loess deposition rates can significantly

  19. Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Cold Weather and Cardiovascular Disease Updated:Sep 16,2015 Th is winter ... and procedures related to heart disease and stroke. Cardiovascular Conditions • Conditions Home • Arrhythmia and Atrial Fibrillation • Cardiac ...

  20. Detection of Weather Radar Clutter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøvith, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    classification and use a range of different techniques and input data. The first method uses external information from multispectral satellite images to detect clutter. The information in the visual, near-infrared, and infrared parts of the spectrum can be used to distinguish between cloud and cloud-free areas......Weather radars provide valuable information on precipitation in the atmosphere but due to the way radars work, not only precipitation is observed by the weather radar. Weather radar clutter, echoes from non-precipitating targets, occur frequently in the data, resulting in lowered data quality....... Especially in the application of weather radar data in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting a high data quality is important. Clutter detection is one of the key components in achieving this goal. This thesis presents three methods for detection of clutter. The methods use supervised...

  1. KZHU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  2. Practical Weathering for Geology Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodder, A. Peter

    1990-01-01

    The design and data management of an activity to study weathering by increasing the rate of mineral dissolution in a microwave oven is described. Data analysis in terms of parabolic and first-order kinetics is discussed. (CW)

  3. Northern Hemisphere Synoptic Weather Maps

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Daily Series of Synoptic Weather Maps. Part I consists of plotted and analyzed daily maps of sea-level and 500-mb maps for 0300, 0400, 1200, 1230, 1300, and 1500...

  4. The Challenge of Weather Prediction

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    around the sun. If weather is also governed by physical laws, why ... radiate according to Planck's law (higher the temperature of the black body ..... First law of thermodynamics. Relates ... (Third Edition) Charles E Merrill Publishing. Company.

  5. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Extreme Heat Older Adults (Aged 65+) Infants and Children Chronic Medical Conditions Low Income Athletes Outdoor Workers Pets Hot Weather Tips Warning Signs and Symptoms FAQs Social Media How to Stay Cool Missouri Cooling Centers Extreme ...

  6. KZOA Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  7. KZJX Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  8. KZBW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  9. KZFW Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  10. KZSE Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  11. KZME Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  12. KZDV Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  13. KZNY Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  14. KZDC Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  15. KZAU Center Weather Advisory (CWA)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The CWA is an aviation weather warning for conditions meeting or approaching national in-flight advisory (AIRMET, SIGMET or SIGMET for convection) criteria. CWAs are...

  16. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  17. Predicting weather regime transitions in Northern Hemisphere datasets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kondrashov, D. [University of California, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Shen, J. [UCLA, Department of Statistics, Los Angeles, CA (United States); Berk, R. [UCLA, Department of Statistics, Los Angeles, CA (United States); University of Pennsylvania, Department of Criminology, Philadelphia, PA (United States); D' Andrea, F.; Ghil, M. [Ecole Normale Superieure, Departement Terre-Atmosphere-Ocean and Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (CNRS and IPSL), Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2007-10-15

    A statistical learning method called random forests is applied to the prediction of transitions between weather regimes of wintertime Northern Hemisphere (NH) atmospheric low-frequency variability. A dataset composed of 55 winters of NH 700-mb geopotential height anomalies is used in the present study. A mixture model finds that the three Gaussian components that were statistically significant in earlier work are robust; they are the Pacific-North American (PNA) regime, its approximate reverse (the reverse PNA, or RNA), and the blocked phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (BNAO). The most significant and robust transitions in the Markov chain generated by these regimes are PNA {yields} BNAO, PNA {yields} RNA and BNAO {yields} PNA. The break of a regime and subsequent onset of another one is forecast for these three transitions. Taking the relative costs of false positives and false negatives into account, the random-forests method shows useful forecasting skill. The calculations are carried out in the phase space spanned by a few leading empirical orthogonal functions of dataset variability. Plots of estimated response functions to a given predictor confirm the crucial influence of the exit angle on a preferred transition path. This result points to the dynamic origin of the transitions. (orig.)

  18. Progress report of the National Weatherization Assistance Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, L.G.; Brown, M.A. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Kinney, L.F. [Synertech Systems Corp. (United States)

    1997-09-01

    The National Weatherization Evaluation of the 1989 Program Year and the Metaevaluation of 1996 are described in two ways in this summary document. The text pages summarize the results of the two evaluations conducted by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The photographs and explanations illustrate weatherization operations and tactics. An overview and history of the program is provided, followed by the scope of weatherization, metaevaluation methods and results for 1996, national evaluation methods and results for 1989, response to evaluation findings, remaining opportunities, and next steps. Conclusions and significant findings are then given.

  19. Adapting to the Weather: Lessons from U.S. History.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleakley, Hoyt; Hong, Sok Chul

    2017-09-01

    An important unknown in understanding the impact of climate change is the scope of adaptation, which requires observations on historical time scales. We consider how weather across U.S. history (1860-2000) has affected various measures of productivity. Using cross-sectional and panel methods, we document significant responses of agricultural and individual productivity to weather. We find strong effects of hotter and wetter weather early in U.S. history, but these effects have been attenuated in recent decades. The results suggest that estimates from a given period may be of limited use in forecasting the longer-term impacts of climate change.

  20. Severe Weather Environments in Atmospheric Reanalyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. T.; Kennedy, A. D.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric reanalyses combine historical observation data using a fixed assimilation scheme to achieve a dynamically coherent representation of the atmosphere. How well these reanalyses represent severe weather environments via proxies is poorly defined. To quantify the performance of reanalyses, a database of proximity soundings near severe storms from the Rapid Update Cycle 2 (RUC-2) model will be compared to a suite of reanalyses including: North American Reanalysis (NARR), European Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), 2nd Modern-Era Retrospective Reanalysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2), Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). A variety of severe weather parameters will be calculated from these soundings including: convective available potential energy (CAPE), storm relative helicity (SRH), supercell composite parameter (SCP), and significant tornado parameter (STP). These soundings will be generated using the SHARPpy python module, which is an open source tool used to calculate severe weather parameters. Preliminary results indicate that the NARR and JRA55 are significantly more skilled at producing accurate severe weather environments than the other reanalyses. The primary difference between these two reanalyses and the remaining reanalyses is a significant negative bias for thermodynamic parameters. To facilitate climatological studies, the scope of work will be expanded to compute these parameters for the entire domain and duration of select renalyses. Preliminary results from this effort will be presented and compared to observations at select locations. This dataset will be made pubically available to the larger scientific community, and details of this product will be provided.

  1. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-08-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms-1 and around 25 ms-1. A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  2. Improving weather forecasts for wind energy applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kay, Merlinde; MacGill, Iain

    2010-01-01

    Weather forecasts play an important role in the energy industry particularly because of the impact of temperature on electrical demand. Power system operation requires that this variable and somewhat unpredictable demand be precisely met at all times and locations from available generation. As wind generation makes up a growing component of electricity supply around the world, it has become increasingly important to be able to provide useful forecasting for this highly variable and uncertain energy resource. Of particular interest are forecasts of weather events that rapidly change wind energy production from one or more wind farms. In this paper we describe work underway to improve the wind forecasts currently available from standard Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) through a bias correction methodology. Our study has used the Australian Bureau of Meteorology MesoLAPS 5 km limited domain model over the Victoria/Tasmania region, providing forecasts for the Woolnorth wind farm, situated in Tasmania, Australia. The accuracy of these forecasts has been investigated, concentrating on the key wind speed ranges 5 - 15 ms -1 and around 25 ms -1 . A bias correction methodology was applied to the NWP hourly forecasts to help account for systematic issues such as the NWP grid point not being at the exact location of the wind farm. An additional correction was applied for timing issues by using meteorological data from the wind farm. Results to date show a reduction in spread of forecast error for hour ahead forecasts by as much as half using this double correction methodology - a combination of both bias correction and timing correction.

  3. Effect of weather on temporal pain patterns in patients with temporomandibular disorders and migraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cioffi, I; Farella, M; Chiodini, P; Ammendola, L; Capuozzo, R; Klain, C; Vollaro, S; Michelotti, A

    2017-05-01

    Patients with masticatory muscle pain and migraine typically report that the intensity of pain fluctuates over time and is affected by weather changes. Weather variables, such as ambient temperature and humidity, may vary significantly depending on whether the individual is outdoor or indoor. It is, therefore, important to assess these variables at the individual level using portable monitors, during everyday life. This study aimed to determine and compare the temporal patterns of pain in individuals affected with facial and head pain and to investigate its relation with weather changes. Eleven patients (27·3 ± 7·4 years) with chronic masticatory muscle pain (MP) and twenty (33·1 ± 8·7 years) with migraine headache (MH) were asked to report their current pain level on a visual analogue scale (VAS) every hour over fourteen consecutive days. The VAS scores were collected using portable data-loggers, which were also used to record temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity. VAS scores varied markedly over time in both groups. Pain VAS scores fluctuate less in the MP group than in the MH group, but their mean, minimum and maximum values were higher than those of migraine patients (all P < 0·05). Pain scores <2 cm were more common in the MH than in the MP group (P < 0·001). Perceived intensity of pain was negatively associated with atmospheric pressure in the MP group and positively associated with temperature and atmospheric in the MH group. Our results reveal that patients with masticatory muscle pain and patients with migraine present typical temporal pain patterns that are influenced in a different way by weather changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel; Tang, Chung-Muh

    1989-01-01

    Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized.

  5. Weather perceptions, holidays satisfaction and perceived attractiveness of domestic vacationing in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jeuring, Jelmer Hendrik Gerard

    Despite variable and relatively cool summer weather, domestic vacations in countries around the North Sea are an important type of tourism. However, relations between weather and domestic tourism in this region remain understudied. A quantitative research (n = 326) among domestic camping tourists in

  6. Meteorological Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) Instrument Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holdridge, Donna J [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Kyrouac, Jenni A [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2017-08-01

    The Meteorological Automatic Weather Station (MAWS) is a surface meteorological station, manufactured by Vaisala, Inc., dedicated to the balloon-borne sounding system (BBSS), providing surface measurements of the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere and the wind speed and direction for each radiosonde profile. These data are automatically provided to the BBSS during the launch procedure and included in the radiosonde profile as the surface measurements of record for the sounding. The MAWS core set of measurements is: Barometric Pressure (hPa), Temperature (°C), Relative Humidity (%), Arithmetic-Averaged Wind Speed (m/s), and Vector-Averaged Wind Direction (deg). The sensors that collect the core variables are mounted at the standard heights defined for each variable.

  7. Estimating Runoff Coefficients Using Weather Radars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahm, Malte; Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a method for estimating runoff coefficients of urban drainage catchments based on a combination of high resolution weather radar data and insewer flow measurements. By utilising the spatial variability of the precipitation it is possible to estimate the runoff coefficients...... of separate subcatchments. The method is demonstrated through a case study of an urban drainage catchment (678ha) located in the municipality of Aarhus, Denmark. The study has proven it is possible to use corresponding measurements of the relative rainfall distribution over the catchment and runoff...... measurements to identify the runoff coefficients at subcatchment level. The number of potential subcatchments is limited by the number of available rainfall events with a sufficient spatial variability....

  8. Investigating Subjective Experience and the Influence of Weather Among Individuals With Fibromyalgia: A Content Analysis of Twitter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delir Haghighi, Pari; Kang, Yong-Bin; Buchbinder, Rachelle; Burstein, Frada; Whittle, Samuel

    2017-01-19

    Little is understood about the determinants of symptom expression in individuals with fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS). While individuals with FMS often report environmental influences, including weather events, on their symptom severity, a consistent effect of specific weather conditions on FMS symptoms has yet to be demonstrated. Content analysis of a large number of messages by individuals with FMS on Twitter can provide valuable insights into variation in the fibromyalgia experience from a first-person perspective. The objective of our study was to use content analysis of tweets to investigate the association between weather conditions and fibromyalgia symptoms among individuals who tweet about fibromyalgia. Our second objective was to gain insight into how Twitter is used as a form of communication and expression by individuals with fibromyalgia and to explore and uncover thematic clusters and communities related to weather. Computerized sentiment analysis was performed to measure the association between negative sentiment scores (indicative of severe symptoms such as pain) and coincident environmental variables. Date, time, and location data for each individual tweet were used to identify corresponding climate data (such as temperature). We used graph analysis to investigate the frequency and distribution of domain-related terms exchanged in Twitter and their association strengths. A community detection algorithm was applied to partition the graph and detect different communities. We analyzed 140,432 tweets related to fibromyalgia from 2008 to 2014. There was a very weak positive correlation between humidity and negative sentiment scores (r=.009, P=.001). There was no significant correlation between other environmental variables and negative sentiment scores. The graph analysis showed that "pain" and "chronicpain" were the most frequently used terms. The Louvain method identified 6 communities. Community 1 was related to feelings and symptoms at the time

  9. Looking toward to the next-generation space weather forecast system. Comments former a former space weather forecaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tomita, Fumihiko

    1999-01-01

    In the 21st century, man's space-based activities will increase significantly and many kinds of space utilization technologies will assume a vital role in the infrastructure, creating new businesses, securing the global environment, contributing much to human welfare in the world. Communications Research Laboratory (CRL) has been contributing to the safety of human activity in space and to the further understanding of the solar terrestrial environment through the study of space weather, including the upper atmosphere, magnetosphere, interplanetary space, and the sun. The next-generation Space Weather Integrated Monitoring System (SWIMS) for future space activities based on the present international space weather forecasting system is introduced in this paper. (author)

  10. Weather conditions: a neglected factor in human salivary cortisol research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milas, Goran; Šupe-Domić, Daniela; Drmić-Hofman, Irena; Rumora, Lada; Klarić, Irena Martinović

    2018-02-01

    There is ample evidence that environmental stressors such as extreme weather conditions affect animal behavior and that this process is in part mediated through the elevated activity of the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis which results in an increase in cortisol secretion. This relationship has not been extensively researched in humans, and weather conditions have not been analyzed as a potential confounder in human studies of stress. Consequently, the goal of this paper was to assess the relationship between salivary cortisol and weather conditions in the course of everyday life and to test a possible moderating effect of two weather-related variables, the climate region and timing of exposure to outdoors conditions. The sample consisted of 903 secondary school students aged 18 to 21 years from Mediterranean and Continental regions. Cortisol from saliva was sampled in naturalistic settings at three time points over the course of a single day. We found that weather conditions are related to salivary cortisol concentration and that this relationship may be moderated by both the specific climate and the anticipation of immediate exposure to outdoors conditions. Unpleasant weather conditions are predictive for the level of salivary cortisol, but only among individuals who anticipate being exposed to it in the immediate future (e.g., in students attending school in the morning shift). We also demonstrated that isolated weather conditions or their patterns may be relevant in one climate area (e.g., Continental) while less relevant in the other (e.g., Mediterranean). Results of this study draw attention to the importance of controlling weather conditions in human salivary cortisol research.

  11. Asian Dust Weather Categorization with Satellite and Surface Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tang-Huang; Hsu, N. Christina; Tsay, Si-Chee; Huang, Shih-Jen

    2011-01-01

    This study categorizes various dust weather types by means of satellite remote sensing over central Asia. Airborne dust particles can be identified by satellite remote sensing because of the different optical properties exhibited by coarse and fine particles (i.e. varying particle sizes). If a correlation can be established between the retrieved aerosol optical properties and surface visibility, the intensity of dust weather can be more effectively and consistently discerned using satellite rather than surface observations. In this article, datasets consisting of collocated products from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Aqua and surface measurements are analysed. The results indicate an exponential relationship between the surface visibility and the satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth, which is subsequently used to categorize the dust weather. The satellite-derived spatial frequency distributions in the dust weather types are consistent with China s weather station reports during 2003, indicating that dust weather classification using satellite data is highly feasible. Although the period during the springtime from 2004 to 2007 may be not sufficient for statistical significance, our results reveal an increasing tendency in both intensity and frequency of dust weather over central Asia during this time period.

  12. Integration of Weather Avoidance and Traffic Separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consiglio, Maria C.; Chamberlain, James P.; Wilson, Sara R.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic convective weather avoidance concept that compensates for weather motion uncertainties; the integration of this weather avoidance concept into a prototype 4-D trajectory-based Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS) application; and test results from a batch (non-piloted) simulation of the integrated application with high traffic densities and a dynamic convective weather model. The weather model can simulate a number of pseudo-random hazardous weather patterns, such as slow- or fast-moving cells and opening or closing weather gaps, and also allows for modeling of onboard weather radar limitations in range and azimuth. The weather avoidance concept employs nested "core" and "avoid" polygons around convective weather cells, and the simulations assess the effectiveness of various avoid polygon sizes in the presence of different weather patterns, using traffic scenarios representing approximately two times the current traffic density in en-route airspace. Results from the simulation experiment show that the weather avoidance concept is effective over a wide range of weather patterns and cell speeds. Avoid polygons that are only 2-3 miles larger than their core polygons are sufficient to account for weather uncertainties in almost all cases, and traffic separation performance does not appear to degrade with the addition of weather polygon avoidance. Additional "lessons learned" from the batch simulation study are discussed in the paper, along with insights for improving the weather avoidance concept. Introduction

  13. Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

  14. Multiple Weather Factors Affect Apparent Survival of European Passerine Birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salewski, Volker; Hochachka, Wesley M.; Fiedler, Wolfgang

    2013-01-01

    Weather affects the demography of animals and thus climate change will cause local changes in demographic rates. In birds numerous studies have correlated demographic factors with weather but few of those examined variation in the impacts of weather in different seasons and, in the case of migrants, in different regions. Using capture-recapture models we correlated weather with apparent survival of seven passerine bird species with different migration strategies to assess the importance of selected facets of weather throughout the year on apparent survival. Contrary to our expectations weather experienced during the breeding season did not affect apparent survival of the target species. However, measures for winter severity were associated with apparent survival of a resident species, two short-distance/partial migrants and a long-distance migrant. Apparent survival of two short distance migrants as well as two long-distance migrants was further correlated with conditions experienced during the non-breeding season in Spain. Conditions in Africa had statistically significant but relatively minor effects on the apparent survival of the two long-distance migrants but also of a presumably short-distance migrant and a short-distance/partial migrant. In general several weather effects independently explained similar amounts of variation in apparent survival for the majority of species and single factors explained only relatively low amounts of temporal variation of apparent survival. Although the directions of the effects on apparent survival mostly met our expectations and there are clear predictions for effects of future climate we caution against simple extrapolations of present conditions to predict future population dynamics. Not only did weather explains limited amounts of variation in apparent survival, but future demographics will likely be affected by changing interspecific interactions, opposing effects of weather in different seasons, and the potential for

  15. How accurate are the weather forecasts for Bierun (southern Poland)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gawor, J.

    2012-04-01

    Weather forecast accuracy has increased in recent times mainly thanks to significant development of numerical weather prediction models. Despite the improvements, the forecasts should be verified to control their quality. The evaluation of forecast accuracy can also be an interesting learning activity for students. It joins natural curiosity about everyday weather and scientific process skills: problem solving, database technologies, graph construction and graphical analysis. The examination of the weather forecasts has been taken by a group of 14-year-old students from Bierun (southern Poland). They participate in the GLOBE program to develop inquiry-based investigations of the local environment. For the atmospheric research the automatic weather station is used. The observed data were compared with corresponding forecasts produced by two numerical weather prediction models, i.e. COAMPS (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) developed by Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, USA; it runs operationally at the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling in Warsaw, Poland and COSMO (The Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) used by the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. The analysed data included air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind chill and sea level pressure. The prediction periods from 0 to 24 hours (Day 1) and from 24 to 48 hours (Day 2) were considered. The verification statistics that are commonly used in meteorology have been applied: mean error, also known as bias, for continuous data and a 2x2 contingency table to get the hit rate and false alarm ratio for a few precipitation thresholds. The results of the aforementioned activity became an interesting basis for discussion. The most important topics are: 1) to what extent can we rely on the weather forecasts? 2) How accurate are the forecasts for two considered time ranges? 3) Which precipitation threshold is the most predictable? 4) Why

  16. An Intelligent Weather Station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mestre, Gonçalo; Ruano, Antonio; Duarte, Helder; Silva, Sergio; Khosravani, Hamid; Pesteh, Shabnam; Ferreira, Pedro M.; Horta, Ricardo

    2015-01-01

    Accurate measurements of global solar radiation, atmospheric temperature and relative humidity, as well as the availability of the predictions of their evolution over time, are important for different areas of applications, such as agriculture, renewable energy and energy management, or thermal comfort in buildings. For this reason, an intelligent, light-weight, self-powered and portable sensor was developed, using a nearest-neighbors (NEN) algorithm and artificial neural network (ANN) models as the time-series predictor mechanisms. The hardware and software design of the implemented prototype are described, as well as the forecasting performance related to the three atmospheric variables, using both approaches, over a prediction horizon of 48-steps-ahead. PMID:26690433

  17. An Intelligent Weather Station

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gonçalo Mestre

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate measurements of global solar radiation, atmospheric temperature and relative humidity, as well as the availability of the predictions of their evolution over time, are important for different areas of applications, such as agriculture, renewable energy and energy management, or thermal comfort in buildings. For this reason, an intelligent, light-weight, self-powered and portable sensor was developed, using a nearest-neighbors (NEN algorithm and artificial neural network (ANN models as the time-series predictor mechanisms. The hardware and software design of the implemented prototype are described, as well as the forecasting performance related to the three atmospheric variables, using both approaches, over a prediction horizon of 48-steps-ahead.

  18. Weather types and strokes in the Augsburg region (Southern Germany)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Christoph; Ertl, Michael; Giemsa, Esther; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Naumann, Markus; Seubert, Stefanie

    2017-04-01

    Strokes are one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide and the main reason for longterm care dependency in Germany. Concerning the economical impact on patients and healthcare systems it is of particular importance to prevent this disease as well as to improve the outcome of the affected persons. Beside the primary well-known risk factors like hypertension, cigarette smoking, physical inactivity and others, also weather seems to have pronounced influence on the occurrence and frequency of strokes. Previous studies most often focused on effects of singular meteorological variables like ambient air temperature, air pressure or humidity. An advanced approach is to link the entire suite of daily weather elements classified to air mass- or weather types to cerebrovascular morbidity or mortality. In a joint pilot study bringing together climatologists, environmental scientists and physicians from the University of Augsburg and the clinical centre Augsburg, we analysed relationships between singular meteorological parameters as well as combined weather effects (e.g. weather types) and strokes in the urban area of Augsburg and the surrounding rural region. A total of 17.501 stroke admissions to Neurological Clinic and Clinical Neurophysiology at Klinikum Augsburg between 2006 and 2015 are classified to either "ischaemic" (16.354) or "haemorrhagic" (1.147) subtype according to etiology (based on the International Classification of Diseases - 10th Revision). Spearman correlations between daily frequencies of ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes and singular atmospheric parameters (T, Tmin, Tmax, air pressure, humidity etc.) measured at the DWD (German weather service) meteorological station at Augsburg Muehlhausen are rather low. However, higher correlations are achieved when considering sub-samples of "homogenous weather conditions" derived from synoptic circulation classifications: e.g. within almost all of 10 types arising from a classification of

  19. Space Weather Research: Indian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, Anil; Pant, Tarun Kumar; Choudhary, R. K.; Nandy, Dibyendu; Manoharan, P. K.

    2016-12-01

    Space weather, just like its meteorological counterpart, is of extreme importance when it comes to its impact on terrestrial near- and far-space environments. In recent years, space weather research has acquired an important place as a thrust area of research having implications both in space science and technology. The presence of satellites and other technological systems from different nations in near-Earth space necessitates that one must have a comprehensive understanding not only of the origin and evolution of space weather processes but also of their impact on technology and terrestrial upper atmosphere. To address this aspect, nations across the globe including India have been investing in research concerning Sun, solar processes and their evolution from solar interior into the interplanetary space, and their impact on Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. In India, over the years, a substantial amount of work has been done in each of these areas by various agencies/institutions. In fact, India has been, and continues to be, at the forefront of space research and has ambitious future programs concerning these areas encompassing space weather. This review aims at providing a glimpse of this Indian perspective on space weather research to the reader and presenting an up-to-date status of the same.

  20. Weather Risk Management in Agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Bobriková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper focuses on valuation of a weather derivative with payoffs depending on temperature. We use historical data from the weather station in the Slovak town Košice to obtain unique prices of option contracts in an incomplete market. Numerical examples of prices of some contracts are presented, using the Burn analysis. We provide an example of how a weather contract can be designed to hedge the financial risk of a suboptimal temperature condition. The comparative comparison of the selected option hedging strategies has shown the best results for the producers in agricultural industries who hedges against an unfavourable weather conditions. The results of analysis proved that by buying put option or call option, the farmer establishes the highest payoff in the case of temperature decrease or increase. The Long Straddle Strategy is the most expensive but is available to the farmer who hedges against a high volatility in temperature movement. We conclude with the findings that weather derivatives could be useful tools to diminish the financial losses for agricultural industries highly dependent for temperature.

  1. Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-31

    Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

  2. Areal variation and chemical modification of weathered shale infiltration characteristics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luxmoore, R.J.; Spalding, B.P.; Munro, I.M.

    1981-01-01

    Spatial variability of infiltration into a weathered shale subsoil was evaluated at a site proximal to one used for shallow land burial of low-level radioactive waste at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Double-ring infiltometers were installed at 48 locations on a 2- by 2-m grid after the removal of 1 to 2 m of soil (Litz-Sequoia association, Typic Hapludults). Infiltration rates were measured before and during the 0- to 20- and 239- to 259-day periods following treatment with solutions of NaOH, KOH, NaF, NaAlO 2 , and Na 2 SiO 3 at rates of 151 equivalents/m 2 . None of these chemical treatments significantly altered infiltration rate, indicating that chemical modification of soil exchange properties may be achieved without inducing hydrologic disturbance in these subsoils. A semivariogram analysis of infiltration data showed that areal variability was random; any spatial patterning must therefore occur at a smaller scale than 2 m

  3. Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Auchmann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

  4. Variation of lithium isotope geochemistry during basalt weathering and secondary mineral transformations in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryu, Jong-Sik; Vigier, Nathalie; Lee, Sin-Woo; Lee, Kwang-Sik; Chadwick, Oliver A.

    2014-11-01

    Lithium isotopes are a potential tracer of silicate weathering but the relationship between lithium isotope compositions and weathering state still need to be established with precision. Here, we report Li concentrations and Li isotope compositions of soils developed along a 4 million year humid-environment chronosequence in the Hawaiian Islands. Li concentrations are variable with depth and age, ranging from 0.24 to 21.3 ppm, and significant Li depletions (up to 92%) relative to parent basalts are systematically enhanced towards the surface. Our calculations show that the relative contribution from atmospheric deposits to the Li soil budget remains small, with a maximum contribution from dust Li of 20% at the oldest site. This is explained by the capacity of the weathering products to retain, within the profiles, the Li coming from basalt alteration, and allows us to explore more specifically the role of alteration processes on soil Li isotope signatures. The δ7Li values display a large range between -2.5‰ and +13.9‰. The youngest soils (0.3 ka) display the same δ7Li value as fresh basalt, regardless of depth, despite ∼30% Li loss by leaching, indicating that there is little Li isotope fractionation during the incipient stage of weathering. δ7Li values for the older soils (⩾20 ka) vary non-linearly as a function of time and can be explained by progressive mineral transformations starting with the synthesis of metastable short-range order (nano-crystalline) minerals and followed by their transformation into relatively inert secondary minerals. Results highlight significant Li isotope fractionation during secondary mineral formation and in particular during Li uptake by kaolinite. Finally, we suggest that the non-monotonous evolution of the regolith δ7Li value over the last 4 Ma is consistent with climatic variations, where congruent release of Li isotopes occurs during warmer periods.

  5. Linking carbon and hydrologic fluxes in the critical zone: Observations from high-frequency monitoring of a weathered bedrock vadose zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tune, A. K.; Druhan, J. L.; Wang, J.; Cargill, S.; Murphy, C.; Rempe, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    A principle challenge in quantifying feedbacks between continental weathering and atmospheric CO2 is to improve understanding of how biogeochemical processes in the critical zone influence the distribution and mobility of organic and inorganic carbon. In particular, in landscapes characterized by thin soils and heterogeneous weathered and fractured bedrock, little data exist to inform and constrain predictive models for carbon dynamics. Here, we present the results of an intensive water and gas sampling campaign across an 18 m thick, variably saturated argillite weathering profile in the Eel River CZO. We monitor water content in situ and regularly collect samples of freely-draining water, tightly-held water, and gas through wet and dry seasons using a novel Vadose-zone Monitoring System (VMS) consisting of sensors and samplers distributed across a 20 m long inclined borehole. This novel approach facilitates the interception of gas and water during transport across the entire variably saturated weathering profile. The data demonstrate that seasonal changes in saturation control the vertical distribution and mobility of carbon in the fractured critical zone. Concentrations of gaseous CO2, O2, and dissolved organic and inorganic carbon fluctuate significantly and repeatably with seasonal additions of water infiltrating the weathered bedrock. A persistent vertical structure in the concentrations of dissolved phases and gas concentrations broadly corresponds to depths associated with unsaturated, seasonally saturated, and chronically saturated zones. Associated variations in the vertical structure of mineralogy and elemental composition, including solid phase organic carbon content, are observed in core obtained during drilling. Together, our observations indicate significant respiration of organic carbon at depths greater than the base of the soil, and thus motivate further investigation of the role of heterogeneous weathered, bedrock environments, which are needed to

  6. Broadcast media and the dissemination of weather information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrnes, J.

    1973-01-01

    Although television is the public's most preferred source of weather information, it fails to provide weather reports to those groups who seek the information early in the day and during the day. The result is that many people most often use radio as a source of information, yet preferring the medium of television. The public actively seeks weather information from both radio and TV stations, usually seeking information on current conditions and short range forecasts. forecasts. Nearly all broadcast stations surveyed were eager to air severe weather bulletins quickly and often. Interest in Nowcasting was high among radio and TV broadcasters, with a significant portion indicating a willingness to pay something for the service. However, interest among TV stations in increasing the number of daily reports was small.

  7. Workshop Report on Space Weather Risks and Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langhoff, Stephanie R.; Straume, Tore

    2012-01-01

    As technological innovations produce new capabilities, complexities, and interdependencies, our susceptibility to the societal impacts of space weather increase. There is real concern in the scientific community that our infrastructure would be at significant risk if a major geomagnetic storm should occur. To discuss the societal impacts of space weather, we brought together an interdisciplinary group of subject matter experts and societal stakeholders to participate in a workshop entitled Space Weather Risks and Society. The workshop was held at Ames Research Center (ARC) on 15-16 October 2011. The workshop was co-sponsored by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center (LMATC), the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA), and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL, part of the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council STFC). The workshop is part of a series of informal weekend workshops hosted by Center Director Pete Worden.

  8. Local weather is associated with rates of online searches for musculoskeletal pain symptoms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Telfer

    Full Text Available Weather conditions are commonly believed to influence musculoskeletal pain, however the evidence for this is mixed. This study aimed to examine the relationship between local meteorological conditions and online search trends for terms related to knee pain, hip pain, and arthritis. Five years of relative online search volumes for these terms were obtained for the 50 most populous cities in the contiguous United States, along with corresponding local weather data for temperature, relative humidity, barometric pressure, and precipitation. Methods from the climate econometrics literature were used to assess the casual impact of these meteorological variables on the relative volumes of searches for pain. For temperatures between -5°C and 30°C, search volumes for hip pain increased by 12 index points, and knee pain increased by 18 index points. Precipitation had a negative effect on search volumes for these terms. At temperatures >30°C, search volumes for arthritis related pain decreased by 7 index points. These patterns were not seen for pain searches unrelated to the musculoskeletal system. In summary, selected local weather conditions are significantly associated with online search volumes for specific musculoskeletal pain symptoms. We believe the predominate driver for this to be the relative changes in physical activity levels associated with meteorological conditions.

  9. Assessment of marine weather forecasts over the Indian sector of Southern Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gera, Anitha; Mahapatra, D. K.; Sharma, Kuldeep; Prakash, Satya; Mitra, A. K.; Iyengar, G. R.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Anilkumar, N.

    2017-09-01

    The Southern Ocean (SO) is one of the important regions where significant processes and feedbacks of the Earth's climate take place. Expeditions to the SO provide useful data for improving global weather/climate simulations and understanding many processes. Some of the uncertainties in these weather/climate models arise during the first few days of simulation/forecast and do not grow much further. NCMRWF issued real-time five day weather forecasts of mean sea level pressure, surface winds, winds at 500 hPa & 850 hPa and rainfall, daily to NCAOR to provide guidance for their expedition to Indian sector of SO during the austral summer of 2014-2015. Evaluation of the skill of these forecasts indicates possible error growth in the atmospheric model at shorter time scales. The error growth is assessed using the model analysis/reanalysis, satellite data and observations made during the expedition. The observed variability of sub-seasonal rainfall associated with mid-latitude systems is seen to exhibit eastward propagations and are well reproduced in the model forecasts. All cyclonic disturbances including the sub-polar lows and tropical cyclones that occurred during this period were well captured in the model forecasts. Overall, this model performs reasonably well over the Indian sector of the SO in medium range time scale.

  10. Space Weather, Environment and Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Lilensten, Jean

    2006-01-01

    Our planet exists within a space environment affected by constantly changing solar atmosphere producing cosmic particles and electromagnetic waves. This "space weather" profoundly influences the performance of our technology because we primarily use two means for transmitting information and energy; namely, electromagnetic waves and electricity. On an everyday basis, we have developed methods to cope with the normal conditions. However, the sun remains a fiery star whose 'angry' outbursts can potentially destroy spacecrafts, kill astronauts, melt electricity transformers, stop trains, and generally wreak havoc with human activities. Space Weather is the developing field within astronomy that aims at predicting the sun’s violent activity and minimizing the impacts on our daily lives. Space Weather, Environment, and Societies explains why our technological societies are so dependent on solar activity and how the Sun disturbs the transmission of information and energy. Footnotes expand specific points and the ...

  11. Climatic history - answers on the variability of weather and climate?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaser, R.; Hagedorn, H.

    1994-01-01

    The paper is concerned with various aspects of climatic history. Emphasis is on the spectrum of data and methods used in historical climatology. The following section is devoted to an outline of the short- and long-range climatic changes since 1500 A.D. that show how much the climate has varied in space and time. It is pointed out that climatic extremes have been an ever-recurrent phenomenon throughout history. (orig.) [de

  12. Influence of Weather Variables on Atmospheric Refractivity over ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF HORSFALL

    2018-04-04

    Apr 4, 2018 ... telecommunication network, navigation and surveillance .... The analysis for this study was done procedurally via calculation of .... Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil for his assistance ... Wireless Portable Microcontroller.

  13. Weather and rheumatoid arthritis: the role of the microclimate near the skin

    OpenAIRE

    Patberg, Wiebe Reinier

    2005-01-01

    Although there is a widespread opinion that weather affects arthritis, scientific proof is lacking. The number of studies on this subject is small, which might be explained by the difficulty of monitoring disease activity in RA. Subjective variables like pain can be judged every day, but the daily determination of objective variables in the laboratory would be too expensive, and too much a burden to the patient. About half of the studies did not find any effect of the weather, and the conclus...

  14. The use of circulation weather types to predict upwelling activity along the Western Iberian Peninsula coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Alexandre M.; Cordeiro Pires, Ana; Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2013-04-01

    Coastal upwelling is a phenomenon that occurs in most western oceanic coasts due to the presence of mid-latitude high-pressure systems that generate equatorward winds along the coast and consequent offshore displacement of surface waters that in turn cause deeper, colder, nutrient-rich waters to arise. In western Iberian Peninsula (IP) the high-pressure system associated to northerly winds occurs mainly during spring and summer. Upwelling systems are economically relevant, being the most productive regions of the world ocean and crucial for fisheries. In this work, we evaluate the intra- and inter-annual variability of the Upwelling Index (UI) off the western coast of the IP considering four locations at various latitudes: Rias Baixas, Aveiro, Figueira da Foz and Cabo da Roca. In addition, the relationship between the variability of the occurrence of several circulation weather types (Ramos et al., 2011) and the UI variability along this coast was assessed in detail, allowing to discriminate which types are frequently associated with strong and weak upwelling activity. It is shown that upwelling activity is mostly driven by wind flow from the northern quadrant, for which the obtained correlation coefficients (for the N and NE types) are higher than 0.5 for the four considered test locations. Taking into account these significant relationships, we then developed statistical multi-linear regression models to hindcast upwelling series (April to September) at the four referred locations, using monthly frequencies of circulation weather types as predictors. Modelled monthly series reproduce quite accurately observational data, with correlation coefficients above 0.7 for all locations, and relatively small absolute errors. Ramos AM, Ramos R, Sousa P, Trigo RM, Janeira M, Prior V (2011) Cloud to ground lightning activity over Portugal and its association with Circulation Weather Types. Atmospheric Research 101:84-101. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2011.01

  15. Phase-dependent space weathering effects and spectroscopic identification of retained helium in a lunar soil grain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgess, K. D.; Stroud, R. M.

    2018-03-01

    The solar wind is an important driver of space weathering on airless bodies. Over time, solar wind exposure alters the physical, chemical, and optical properties of exposed materials and can also impart a significant amount of helium into the surfaces of these bodies. However, common materials on the surface of the Moon, such as glass, crystalline silicates, and oxides, have highly variable responses to solar wind irradiation. We used scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) with electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) to examine the morphology and chemistry of a single grain of lunar soil that includes silicate glass, chromite and ilmenite, all present and exposed along the same surface. The exposure of the silicate glass and oxides to the same space weathering conditions allows for direct comparisons of the responses of natural materials to the complex lunar surface environment. The silicate glass shows minimal effects of solar wind irradiation, whereas both the chromite and ilmenite exhibit defect-rich rims that currently contain trapped helium. Only the weathered rim in ilmenite is rich in nanophase metallic iron (npFe0) and larger vesicles that retain helium at a range of internal pressures. The multiple exposed surfaces of the single grain of ilmenite demonstrate strong crystallographic controls of planar defects and non-spherical npFe0. The direct spectroscopic identification of helium in the vesicles and planar defects in the oxides provides additional evidence of the central role of solar wind irradiation in the formation of some common space weathering features.

  16. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  17. Vodcasting space weather: The Space Weather FX vodcast series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins Petersen, C.; Erickson, P. J.

    2008-06-01

    The topic of space weather is the subject of a series of nine vodcasts (video podcasts) being created by MIT Haystack Observatory (Westford, Massachusetts, USA) and Loch Ness Productions (Groton, Massachusetts, USA). This paper describes the project, its science and outreach goals, and introduces the principal participants.

  18. Weather conditions drive dynamic habitat selection in a generalist predator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sunde, Peter; Thorup, Kasper; Jacobsen, Lars B.

    2014-01-01

    Despite the dynamic nature of habitat selection, temporal variation as arising from factors such as weather are rarely quantified in species-habitat relationships. We analysed habitat use and selection (use/availability) of foraging, radio-tagged little owls (Athene noctua), a nocturnal, year...... and quadratic effects of temperature. Even when controlling for the temporal context, both land cover types were used more evenly than predicted from variation in availability (functional response in habitat selection). Use of two other land cover categories (pastures and moist areas) increased linearly...... with temperature and was proportional to their availability. The study shows that habitat selection by generalist foragers may be highly dependent on temporal variables such as weather, probably because such foragers switch between weather dependent feeding opportunities offered by different land cover types...

  19. Verification of Space Weather Forecasts using Terrestrial Weather Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henley, E.; Murray, S.; Pope, E.; Stephenson, D.; Sharpe, M.; Bingham, S.; Jackson, D.

    2015-12-01

    The Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) provides a range of 24/7 operational space weather forecasts, alerts, and warnings, which provide valuable information on space weather that can degrade electricity grids, radio communications, and satellite electronics. Forecasts issued include arrival times of coronal mass ejections (CMEs), and probabilistic forecasts for flares, geomagnetic storm indices, and energetic particle fluxes and fluences. These forecasts are produced twice daily using a combination of output from models such as Enlil, near-real-time observations, and forecaster experience. Verification of forecasts is crucial for users, researchers, and forecasters to understand the strengths and limitations of forecasters, and to assess forecaster added value. To this end, the Met Office (in collaboration with Exeter University) has been adapting verification techniques from terrestrial weather, and has been working closely with the International Space Environment Service (ISES) to standardise verification procedures. We will present the results of part of this work, analysing forecast and observed CME arrival times, assessing skill using 2x2 contingency tables. These MOSWOC forecasts can be objectively compared to those produced by the NASA Community Coordinated Modelling Center - a useful benchmark. This approach cannot be taken for the other forecasts, as they are probabilistic and categorical (e.g., geomagnetic storm forecasts give probabilities of exceeding levels from minor to extreme). We will present appropriate verification techniques being developed to address these forecasts, such as rank probability skill score, and comparing forecasts against climatology and persistence benchmarks. As part of this, we will outline the use of discrete time Markov chains to assess and improve the performance of our geomagnetic storm forecasts. We will also discuss work to adapt a terrestrial verification visualisation system to space weather, to help

  20. The sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norin, Lars; Devasthale, Abhay; L'Ecuyer, Tristan S.

    2017-09-01

    For a high-latitude country like Sweden snowfall is an important contributor to the regional water cycle. Furthermore, snowfall impacts surface properties, affects atmospheric thermodynamics, has implications for traffic and logistics management, disaster preparedness, and also impacts climate through changes in surface albedo and turbulent heat fluxes. For Sweden it has been shown that large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, or weather states, are important for precipitation variability. Although the link between atmospheric circulation patterns and precipitation has been investigated for rainfall there are no studies focused on the sensitivity of snowfall to weather states over Sweden.In this work we investigate the response of snowfall to eight selected weather states. These weather states consist of four dominant wind directions together with cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns and enhanced positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The presented analysis is based on multiple data sources, such as ground-based radar measurements, satellite observations, spatially interpolated in situ observations, and reanalysis data. The data from these sources converge to underline the sensitivity of falling snow over Sweden to the different weather states.In this paper we examine both average snowfall intensities and snowfall accumulations associated with the different weather states. It is shown that, even though the heaviest snowfall intensities occur during conditions with winds from the south-west, the largest contribution to snowfall accumulation arrives with winds from the south-east. Large differences in snowfall due to variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation are shown as well as a strong effect of cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation patterns. Satellite observations are used to reveal the vertical structures of snowfall during the different weather states.

  1. Contribution of sand-associated enterococci to dry weather water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halliday, Elizabeth; Ralston, David K; Gast, Rebecca J

    2015-01-06

    Culturable enterococci and a suite of environmental variables were collected during a predominantly dry summer at a beach impacted by nonpoint source pollution. These data were used to evaluate sands as a source of enterococci to nearshore waters, and to assess the relationship between environmental factors and dry-weather enterococci abundance. Best-fit multiple linear regressions used environmental variables to explain more than half of the observed variation in enterococci in water and dry sands. Notably, during dry weather the abundance of enterococci in dry sands at the mean high-tide line was significantly positively related to sand moisture content (ranging from sands. Tidal forcing modulated the abundance of enterococci in the water, as both turbidity and enterococci were elevated during ebb and flood tides. The probability of samples violating the single-sample maximum was significantly greater when collected during periods with increased tidal range: spring ebb and flood tides. Tidal forcing also affected groundwater mixing zones, mobilizing enterococci from sand to water. These data show that routine monitoring programs using discrete enterococci measurements may be biased by tides and other environmental factors, providing a flawed basis for beach closure decisions.

  2. Incorporating real-time traffic and weather data to explore road accident likelihood and severity in urban arterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theofilatos, Athanasios

    2017-06-01

    The effective treatment of road accidents and thus the enhancement of road safety is a major concern to societies due to the losses in human lives and the economic and social costs. The investigation of road accident likelihood and severity by utilizing real-time traffic and weather data has recently received significant attention by researchers. However, collected data mainly stem from freeways and expressways. Consequently, the aim of the present paper is to add to the current knowledge by investigating accident likelihood and severity by exploiting real-time traffic and weather data collected from urban arterials in Athens, Greece. Random Forests (RF) are firstly applied for preliminary analysis purposes. More specifically, it is aimed to rank candidate variables according to their relevant importance and provide a first insight on the potential significant variables. Then, Bayesian logistic regression as well finite mixture and mixed effects logit models are applied to further explore factors associated with accident likelihood and severity respectively. Regarding accident likelihood, the Bayesian logistic regression showed that variations in traffic significantly influence accident occurrence. On the other hand, accident severity analysis revealed a generally mixed influence of traffic variations on accident severity, although international literature states that traffic variations increase severity. Lastly, weather parameters did not find to have a direct influence on accident likelihood or severity. The study added to the current knowledge by incorporating real-time traffic and weather data from urban arterials to investigate accident occurrence and accident severity mechanisms. The identification of risk factors can lead to the development of effective traffic management strategies to reduce accident occurrence and severity of injuries in urban arterials. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

  3. Effectiveness of Weather Derivatives as a Risk Management Tool in Food Retail: The Case of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Štulec

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Non-catastrophic weather risk is gaining importance as climate change becomes more pronounced and economic crisis forces companies to strengthen their cost control. Recent literature proposes weather derivatives as flexible weather risk mitigating tools. Only a handful of studies analysed the feasibility of weather derivatives in industries other than agriculture and energy. The purpose of this paper is to review available weather risk management solutions in retail, present weather derivatives as non-catastrophic weather risk management tools, empirically demonstrate the process of designing weather derivatives and assess their effectiveness as risk mitigating tools in retail. Empirical analysis is performed on beverage sales in 60 large food stores in Croatia, and performance of monthly temperature put options during the summer season is examined. For weather sensitivity analysis of sales, the method of panel regression was used. Results show that weather has a statistically significant effect on beverage sales and that weather derivatives prove to be effective in beverage sales uncertainty reduction. Their effectiveness differs between covered periods and cities.

  4. Ionospheric research for space weather service support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanislawska, Iwona; Gulyaeva, Tamara; Dziak-Jankowska, Beata

    2016-07-01

    Knowledge of the behavior of the ionosphere is very important for space weather services. A wide variety of ground based and satellite existing and future systems (communications, radar, surveillance, intelligence gathering, satellite operation, etc) is affected by the ionosphere. There are the needs for reliable and efficient support for such systems against natural hazard and minimalization of the risk failure. The joint research Project on the 'Ionospheric Weather' of IZMIRAN and SRC PAS is aimed to provide on-line the ionospheric parameters characterizing the space weather in the ionosphere. It is devoted to science, techniques and to more application oriented areas of ionospheric investigation in order to support space weather services. The studies based on data mining philosophy increasing the knowledge of ionospheric physical properties, modelling capabilities and gain applications of various procedures in ionospheric monitoring and forecasting were concerned. In the framework of the joint Project the novel techniques for data analysis, the original system of the ionospheric disturbance indices and their implementation for the ionosphere and the ionospheric radio wave propagation are developed since 1997. Data of ionosonde measurements and results of their forecasting for the ionospheric observatories network, the regional maps and global ionospheric maps of total electron content from the navigational satellite system (GNSS) observations, the global maps of the F2 layer peak parameters (foF2, hmF2) and W-index of the ionospheric variability are provided at the web pages of SRC PAS and IZMIRAN. The data processing systems include analysis and forecast of geomagnetic indices ap and kp and new eta index applied for the ionosphere forecasting. For the first time in the world the new products of the W-index maps analysis are provided in Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms and their association with the global geomagnetic Dst storms is

  5. Restoration of severely weathered wood

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Sam. Williams; Mark. Knaebe

    2000-01-01

    Severely weathered window units were used to test various restoration methods and pretreatments. Sanded and unsanded units were pretreated with a consolidant or water repellent preservative, finished with an oil- or latex-based paint system, and exposed outdoors near Madison, WI, for five years. Pretreatments were applied to both window sashes (stiles and rails) and...

  6. Synoptic weather conditions during BOBMEX

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22

    sions when the strong wind field appeared spread over the peninsula and central India. This was also seen both in OLR and in vertical velocity fields prepared by National Centre for Medium. Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF). A band of low OLR (150–160watts/sqm) could be seen in the south and adjoining central ...

  7. NOAA Weather Radio - All Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-Zero All Hazards Logo Emergency Alert Description Event Codes Fact Sheet FAQ Organization Search -event information for all types of hazards: weather (e.g., tornadoes, floods), natural (e.g Management or Preparedness, civil defense, police or mayor/commissioner sets up linkages to send messages on

  8. A decade of weather extremes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coumou, Dim; Rahmstorf, Stefan

    The ostensibly large number of recent extreme weather events has triggered intensive discussions, both in- and outside the scientific community, on whether they are related to global warming. Here, we review the evidence and argue that for some types of extreme - notably heatwaves, but also

  9. Fatigue Strength of Weathering Steel

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kunz, Ludvík; Lukáš, Petr; Klusák, Jan

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 1 (2012), s. 18-22 ISSN 1392-1320 Grant - others:GA MPO(CZ) FT/TA5/076 Institutional support: RVO:68081723 Keywords : fatigue of weathering steel * corrosion pits * fatigue notch factor Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics Impact factor: 0.522, year: 2012

  10. Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Hassan; Eshow, Michelle

    2014-01-01

    Dynamic Weather Routes Architecture Overview, presents the high level software architecture of DWR, based on the CTAS software framework and the Direct-To automation tool. The document also covers external and internal data flows, required dataset, changes to the Direct-To software for DWR, collection of software statistics, and the code structure.

  11. Skywatch: The Western Weather Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keen, Richard A.

    The western United States is a region of mountains and valleys with the world's largest ocean next door. Its weather is unique. This book discusses how water, wind, and environmental conditions combine to create the climatic conditions of the region. Included are sections describing: fronts; cyclones; precipitation; storms; tornadoes; hurricanes;…

  12. Accelerated laboratory weathering of acrylic lens materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, Thomas; Richter, Steffen; Kogler, René; Pasierb, Mike; Walby, Christopher

    2015-09-01

    Flat samples from various poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) formulations were subjected to outdoor weathering in Arizona and Florida, EMMAQUA® accelerated outdoor weathering, and two accelerated laboratory weathering procedures at 3 Sun irradiance which, imitate dry (Arizona) and wet (Florida) conditions. The main mode of degradation is yellowing and not the generation of haze for any weathering procedure within the investigated radiant exposure. Higher UV absorber concentrations lead to smaller changes in optical properties and in the resulting relative concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) module efficiencies. Comparison of sample properties after various weathering procedures reveals that the influence of weathering factors other than radiant exposure depends on the sample as well.

  13. Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10): a World Weather Research Programme Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaac, G. A.; Joe, P. I.; Mailhot, J.; Bailey, M.; Bélair, S.; Boudala, F. S.; Brugman, M.; Campos, E.; Carpenter, R. L.; Crawford, R. W.; Cober, S. G.; Denis, B.; Doyle, C.; Reeves, H. D.; Gultepe, I.; Haiden, T.; Heckman, I.; Huang, L. X.; Milbrandt, J. A.; Mo, R.; Rasmussen, R. M.; Smith, T.; Stewart, R. E.; Wang, D.; Wilson, L. J.

    2014-01-01

    A World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project entitled the Science of Nowcasting Olympic Weather for Vancouver 2010 (SNOW-V10) was developed to be associated with the Vancouver 2010 Olympic and Paralympic Winter Games conducted between 12 February and 21 March 2010. The SNOW-V10 international team augmented the instrumentation associated with the Winter Games and several new numerical weather forecasting and nowcasting models were added. Both the additional observational and model data were available to the forecasters in real time. This was an excellent opportunity to demonstrate existing capability in nowcasting and to develop better techniques for short term (0-6 h) nowcasts of winter weather in complex terrain. Better techniques to forecast visibility, low cloud, wind gusts, precipitation rate and type were evaluated. The weather during the games was exceptionally variable with many periods of low visibility, low ceilings and precipitation in the form of both snow and rain. The data collected should improve our understanding of many physical phenomena such as the diabatic effects due to melting snow, wind flow around and over terrain, diurnal flow reversal in valleys associated with daytime heating, and precipitation reductions and increases due to local terrain. Many studies related to these phenomena are described in the Special Issue on SNOW-V10 for which this paper was written. Numerical weather prediction and nowcast models have been evaluated against the unique observational data set now available. It is anticipated that the data set and the knowledge learned as a result of SNOW-V10 will become a resource for other World Meteorological Organization member states who are interested in improving forecasts of winter weather.

  14. Weather elements, chemical air pollutants and airborne pollen influencing asthma emergency room visits in Szeged, Hungary: performance of two objective weather classifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makra, László; Puskás, János; Matyasovszky, István; Csépe, Zoltán; Lelovics, Enikő; Bálint, Beatrix; Tusnády, Gábor

    2015-09-01

    Weather classification approaches may be useful tools in modelling the occurrence of respiratory diseases. The aim of the study is to compare the performance of an objectively defined weather classification and the Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) in classifying emergency department (ED) visits for acute asthma depending from weather, air pollutants, and airborne pollen variables for Szeged, Hungary, for the 9-year period 1999-2007. The research is performed for three different pollen-related periods of the year and the annual data set. According to age and gender, nine patient categories, eight meteorological variables, seven chemical air pollutants, and two pollen categories were used. In general, partly dry and cold air and partly warm and humid air aggravate substantially the symptoms of asthmatics. Our major findings are consistent with this establishment. Namely, for the objectively defined weather types favourable conditions for asthma ER visits occur when an anticyclonic ridge weather situation happens with near extreme temperature and humidity parameters. Accordingly, the SSC weather types facilitate aggravating asthmatic conditions if warm or cool weather occur with high humidity in both cases. Favourable conditions for asthma attacks are confirmed in the extreme seasons when atmospheric stability contributes to enrichment of air pollutants. The total efficiency of the two classification approaches is similar in spite of the fact that the methodology for derivation of the individual types within the two classification approaches is completely different.

  15. The Sun/Earth System and Space Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poland, Arthur I.; Fox, Nicola; Lucid, Shannon

    2003-01-01

    Solar variability and solar activity are now seen as significant drivers with respect to the Earth and human technology systems. Observations over the last 10 years have significantly advanced our understanding of causes and effects in the Sun/Earth system. On a practical level the interactions between the Sun and Earth dictate how we build our systems in space (communications satellites, GPS, etc), and some of our ground systems (power grids). This talk will be about the Sun/Earth system: how it changes with time, its magnetic interactions, flares, the solar wind, and how the Sun effects human systems. Data will be presented from some current spacecraft which show, for example, how we are able to currently give warnings to the scientific community, the Government and industry about space storms and how this data has improved our physical understanding of processes on the Sun and in the magnetosphere. The scientific advances provided by our current spacecraft has led to a new program in NASA to develop a 'Space Weather' system called 'Living With a Star'. The current plan for the 'Living With a Star' program will also be presented.

  16. Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Christopher M.; Fan, Xingang; Mahmood, Rezaul; Groves, Chris; Polk, Jason S.; Yan, Jun

    2018-03-01

    Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land-atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant

  17. Space weather effects and commerical airlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, J.; Bentley, R.; Hunter, R.; Taylor, G.; Thomas, D.

    Space Weather (SW) phenomena can effect many areas of commercial airline operations including avionics, communications and GPS navigation systems. Of particular importance at present is the recently introduced EU legislation requiring the monitoring of aircrew radiation exposure, including any variations at aircraft altitudes due to solar activity. The Mullard Space Science Laboratory is collaborating with Virgin Atlantic Airways, the Civil Aviation Authority and the National Physical Laboratory on a 3- year project to monitor the levels of cosmic radiation on long-haul flights. The study will determine whether computer models currently used to predict radiation exposure of aircrew are adequate. It also aims to determine whether solar or geomagnetic activity can cause significant modifications to the doses. This presentation will begin by showing some of the preliminary results obtained so far. As an example, we present a comparison of flight doses measured following the 14t h July 2000 X - class flare that was accompanied by a major Solar Particle Event (SPE). The results highlight the importance of a range of external factors that can strongly influence how SPEs may effect the measured dose at aircraft altitudes. At present, any SPE contributions in the airlines' dose records can only be poorly estimated retrospectively. Ideally, it would be better to try to avoid operating during these possibly significant radiation - enhancing events by utilising SW information (alerts, warnings, etc.). However, doing so poses many difficult operational problems for such a heavily regulated international industry, in terms of safety, security and procedures. Therefore, the use of timely SW information, which is still very unreliable, in a similar manner to terrestrial weather will require agreement from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) and International Air Transport Association (IATA) to Air Traffic Control and Aviation Regulatory Authority's. This

  18. NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

  19. Vehicle automation and weather : challenges and opportunities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-25

    Adverse weather has major impacts on the safety and operations of all roads, from signalized arterials to Interstate highways. Weather affects driver behavior, vehicle performance, pavement friction, and roadway infrastructure, thereby increasing the...

  20. National Weather Service: Watch, Warning, Advisory Display

    Science.gov (United States)

    weather.gov Site Map News Organization Search for: SPC NCEP All NOAA Search by city or zip ... Fire Wx Outlooks RSS Feeds E-Mail Alerts Weather Information Storm Reports Storm Reports Dev. NWS Hazards ...

  1. Integrating Sphere-based Weathering Device

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description:In the artificial ultraviolet (UV) weathering of materials, a need exists for weathering devices that can uniformly illuminate test specimens with a high...

  2. Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-12-01

    The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

  3. World War II Weather Record Transmittances

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — World War II Weather Record Transmittances are a record of the weather and meteorological data observed during World War II and transferred to the archive. It...

  4. Newspaper Clippings and Articles (Weather-related)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather-related newspaper articles and photos, almost exclusively from Baltimore, MD and nearby areas. Includes storm damage, rainfall reports, and weather's affect...

  5. Fire Danger and Fire Weather Records

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (formerly Weather Bureau) and Forest Service developed a program to track meteorological conditions conducive to forest fires, resulting...

  6. Adaptive Weather Forecasting using Local Meteorological Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.; Keesman, K.J.

    2005-01-01

    In general, meteorological parameters such as temperature, rain and global radiation are important for agricultural systems. Anticipating on future conditions is most often needed in these systems. Weather forecasts then become of substantial importance. As weather forecasts are subject to

  7. Assessment of the chestnut production weather dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Mário; Caramelo, Liliana; Gouveia, Célia; Gomes-Laranjo, José

    2010-05-01

    The vegetative cycle of chestnut trees is highly dependent on weather. Photosynthesis and pollen germination are mainly conditioned by the air temperature while heavy precipitation and strong wind have significant impacts during the flushing phase period (Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2005, 2006). In Portugal, chestnut tree orchads are located in mountainous areas of the Northeast region of Trás-os-Montes, between 600 and 1000 m of altitude. Topography controls the atmospheric environment and assures adequate conditions for the chestnut production. In the above mentioned context, remote sensing plays an important role because of its ability to monitor and characterise vegetation dynamics. A number of studies, based on remote sensing, have been conducted in Europe to analyse the year-to-year variations in European vegetation greenness as a function of precipitation and temperature (Gouveia et al., 2008). A previous study focusing on the relationship between meteorological variables and chestnut productivity provides indication that simulation models may benefit from the incorporation of such kind of relationships. The aim of the present work is to provide a detailed description of recent developments, in particular of the added value that may be brought by using satellite data. We have relied on regional fields of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset, at 8-km resolution, provided by the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modelling System (GIMMS) group. The data are derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRR), and cover the period from 1982 to 2006. Additionally we have used the chestnut productivity dataset, which includes the annual values of chestnut production and area of production provided by INE, the National Institute of Statistics of Portugal and the meteorological dataset which includes values of several variables from different providers (Meteorod, NCEP/NCAR, ECA&D and national Meteorological Institute). Results show that

  8. Relationship between onset of spontaneous pneumothorax and weather conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishina, Taijiro; Watanabe, Atsushi; Miyajima, Masahiro; Nakazawa, Junji

    2017-09-01

    Spontaneous pneumothorax (SP) results from the rupture of blebs or bullae. It has been suggested that changes in weather conditions may trigger the onset of SP. Our aim was to examine the association between the onset of primary SP with weather changes in the general population in Sapporo, Japan. From January 2008 through September 2013, 345 consecutive cases with a diagnosis of primary SP were reviewed. All cases of primary SP developed in the area within 40 km from the Sapporo District Meteorological Observatory. Climatic measurements were obtained from the Observatory, which included 1-h readings of weather conditions. Logistic regression model was used to obtain predicted risks for the onset of SP with respect to weather conditions. SP occurred significantly when the atmospheric pressure decreased by - 18 hPa or less during 96 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.379, P = 0.026), when the pressure increased by 15 hPa or more during 72 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.095, P = 0.007) and when maximum fluctuation in atmospheric pressure over 22 hPa was observed during 96 h before the survey date (odds ratio = 1.519, P = 0.001). Other weather conditions, including the presence of thunderstorms, were not significantly correlated with the onset of pneumothorax. Changes in atmospheric pressure influence the onset of SP. Future studies on the relationship between the onset of SP and weather conditions on days other than before the onset and with large number of patients may enable us to predict the onset of SP in various regions and weather conditions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  9. Nature beyond Linearity: Meteorological Variability and Jensen's Inequality Can Explain Mast Seeding Behavior

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Fernández-Martínez

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Mast seeding, the extremely variable and synchronized production of fruits, is a common reproductive behavior in plants. Weather is centrally involved in driving masting. Yet, it is often claimed that it cannot be the sole proximate cause of masting because weather is less variable than fruit production and because the shape of their distributions differ. We used computer simulations to demonstrate that the assumption that weather cannot be the main driver of masting was only valid for linear relationships between weather and fruit production. Non-linear relationships between interannual variability in weather and crop size, however, can account for the differences in their variability and the shape of their distributions because of Jensen's inequality. Exponential relationships with weather can increase the variability of fruit production, and sigmoidal relationships can produce bimodal distributions. These results challenge the idea that meteorological variability cannot be the main proximate driver of mast seeding, returning meteorological variability to the forefront of masting research.

  10. Efficient Ways to Learn Weather Radar Polarimetry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Yeary, M. B.; Zhang, Guifu

    2012-01-01

    The U.S. weather radar network is currently being upgraded with dual-polarization capability. Weather radar polarimetry is an interdisciplinary area of engineering and meteorology. This paper presents efficient ways to learn weather radar polarimetry through several basic and practical topics. These topics include: 1) hydrometeor scattering model…

  11. 49 CFR 195.224 - Welding: Weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Welding: Weather. 195.224 Section 195.224 Transportation Other Regulations Relating to Transportation (Continued) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY... PIPELINE Construction § 195.224 Welding: Weather. Welding must be protected from weather conditions that...

  12. The greenhouse effect and extreme weather

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenaas, Sigbjoern; Kvamstoe, Nils Gunnar

    2002-01-01

    The article asserts that an anthropogenic global warming is occurring. This greenhouse effect is expected to cause more occurrences of extreme weather. It is extremely difficult, however, to relate specific weather catastrophes to global warming with certainty, since such extreme weather conditions are rare historically. The subject is controversial. The article also discusses the public debate and the risk of floods

  13. The Early Years: The Wonders of Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashbrook, Peggy

    2013-01-01

    This article reports on the wonders of winter weather, as it often inspires teachers' and students' interest in collecting weather data, especially if snow falls. Beginning weather data collection in preschool will introduce children to the concepts of making regular observations of natural phenomena, recording the observations (data),…

  14. 36 CFR 910.71 - Weather protection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Weather protection. 910.71 Section 910.71 Parks, Forests, and Public Property PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE DEVELOPMENT CORPORATION GENERAL... DEVELOPMENT AREA Glossary of Terms § 910.71 Weather protection. Weather protection means a seasonal or...

  15. Reducing prediction uncertainty of weather controlled systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Doeswijk, T.G.

    2007-01-01

    In closed agricultural systems the weather acts both as a disturbance and as a resource. By using weather forecasts in control strategies the effects of disturbances can be minimized whereas the resources can be utilized. In this situation weather forecast uncertainty and model based control are

  16. To what extent does weather influence individuals’ financial decision-making behaviour? Evidence from the spread-trading market

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Shaosong

    2016-01-01

    This thesis, which is divided into 3 papers, investigates the relationship between weather and individuals’ trading behaviour in the spread-trading market. The spread-trading market offers the opportunity of examining individuals’ trading records, and thus enables the exploration of the impact of weather on individuals’ financial decision-making behaviours. The first paper investigates the effect of a range of weather variables on individual spread traders’ hourly trading volumes and their pr...

  17. Severe fire weather and intensive forest management increase fire severity in a multi-ownership landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zald, Harold S J; Dunn, Christopher J

    2018-04-26

    Many studies have examined how fuels, topography, climate, and fire weather influence fire severity. Less is known about how different forest management practices influence fire severity in multi-owner landscapes, despite costly and controversial suppression of wildfires that do not acknowledge ownership boundaries. In 2013, the Douglas Complex burned over 19,000 ha of Oregon & California Railroad (O&C) lands in Southwestern Oregon, USA. O&C lands are composed of a checkerboard of private industrial and federal forestland (Bureau of Land Management, BLM) with contrasting management objectives, providing a unique experimental landscape to understand how different management practices influence wildfire severity. Leveraging Landsat based estimates of fire severity (Relative differenced Normalized Burn Ratio, RdNBR) and geospatial data on fire progression, weather, topography, pre-fire forest conditions, and land ownership, we asked (1) what is the relative importance of different variables driving fire severity, and (2) is intensive plantation forestry associated with higher fire severity? Using Random Forest ensemble machine learning, we found daily fire weather was the most important predictor of fire severity, followed by stand age and ownership, followed by topographic features. Estimates of pre-fire forest biomass were not an important predictor of fire severity. Adjusting for all other predictor variables in a general least squares model incorporating spatial autocorrelation, mean predicted RdNBR was higher on private industrial forests (RdNBR 521.85 ± 18.67 [mean ± SE]) vs. BLM forests (398.87 ± 18.23) with a much greater proportion of older forests. Our findings suggest intensive plantation forestry characterized by young forests and spatially homogenized fuels, rather than pre-fire biomass, were significant drivers of wildfire severity. This has implications for perceptions of wildfire risk, shared fire management responsibilities, and developing

  18. A population-based study of the associations of stroke occurrence with weather parameters in Siberia, Russia (1982-92).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigin, V L; Nikitin, Y P; Bots, M L; Vinogradova, T E; Grobbee, D E

    2000-03-01

    Previous studies have established a seasonal variation in stroke occurrence, but none have assessed the influence of inclement weather conditions on stroke incidence in a general population of Russia. We performed a stroke population-based study in the Oktiabrsky District of Novosibirsk, Siberia, Russia. Included in the analysis were 1929 patients with their first occurrence of ischemic stroke (IS), 215 patients with their first occurrence of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and 64 patients with their first occurrence of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH): all patients were aged between 25 and 74 years. The cumulative daily occurrence of total strokes and stroke subtypes was evaluated in relation to aggregated daily mean values of ambient temperature, relative humidity and air pressure by means of Poisson regression analysis to estimate the rate ratio (RR) with corresponding confidence interval (CI) and to identify the weather parameters of most importance. In a multivariate analysis, with adjustment for the effects of season, solar and geomagnetic activity, and age of the patients, low ambient temperature (RR 1.32; 95% CI 1.05-1.66) and mean value of air pressure (RR 0.986; 95% CI 0.972-0.999) were important predictors of IS occurrence, while mild ambient temperature (RR 1.52; 95% CI 1. 04-2.22) was an important predictor of ICH occurrence. No relationship between SAH occurrence and any one of the weather parameters studied was revealed. There was no interaction between any meteorological variables that was statistically significant. Inclement weather conditions are associated with the occurrence of IS and ICH in Siberia, Russia. Among the meteorological parameters studied, low ambient temperature and mean air pressure are the most important predictors of IS occurrence, whereas the occurrence of ICH is associated with mild ambient temperature. There is no association between any one of the weather parameters studied and the occurrence of SAH.

  19. Weather, Climate and Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beer, T.

    2016-12-01

    To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

  20. CAUSALITY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS IN AUSTRALIAN STOCK EQUITY RETURNS

    OpenAIRE

    Svetlana Vlady; Ekrem Tufan; Bahattin Hamarat

    2011-01-01

    This study investigates causality of weather and its impact on the The S&P/ASX All Australian 200 Index has been selected as a proxy for the Australian capital market. The index consists exclusively of Australian domiciled companies. Following previous research in behaviour finance in the area of environmental psychology, the data set covers temperature, quality temperature, wet bulb temperature, quality wet bulb temperature, humidity, pressure and vapour pressure variables. The data set is a...

  1. How Satellites Have Contributed to Building a Weather Ready Nation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenta, W.

    2017-12-01

    NOAA's primary mission since its inception has been to reduce the loss of life and property, as well as disruptions from, high impact weather and water-related events. In recent years, significant societal losses resulting even from well forecast extreme events have shifted attention from the forecast alone toward ensuring societal response is equal to the risks that exist for communities, businesses and the public. The responses relate to decisions ranging from coastal communities planning years in advance to mitigate impacts from rising sea level, to immediate lifesaving decisions such as a family seeking adequate shelter during a tornado warning. NOAA is committed to building a "Weather-Ready Nation" where communities are prepared for and respond appropriately to these events. The Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) strategic priority is building community resilience in the face of increasing vulnerability to extreme weather, water, climate and environmental threats. To build a Weather-Ready Nation, NOAA is enhancing Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS), transitioning science and technology advances into forecast operations, applying social science research to improve the communication and usefulness of information, and expanding its dissemination efforts to achieve far-reaching readiness, responsiveness and resilience. These four components of Weather-Ready Nation are helping ensure NOAA data, products and services are fully utilized to minimize societal impacts from extreme events. Satellite data and satellite products have been important elements of the national Weather Service (NWS) operations for more than 40 years. When one examines the uses of satellite data specific to the internal forecast and warning operations of NWS, two main applications are evident. The first is the use of satellite data in numerical weather prediction models; the second is the use of satellite imagery and derived products for mesoscale and short-range weather warning and

  2. Microbiological composition of untreated water during different weather conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adna Bešić

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Water can support the growth of different microorganisms which may result in contamination. Therefore, the microbiological examination is required for testing the hygienic probity of water. In the study of microbial composition of untreated, natural spring and mineral water differences in the presence and number of bacteria during the two periods, winter and summer, are detectable.Methods: In our study, we analyzed and compared the following parameters, specified in the Rulebook: total bacteria and total aerobic bacteria (ml/22 and 37°C, total Coliform bacteria and Coliforms of fecalorigin (MPN/100ml, fecal streptococci as Streptococcus faecalis  (MPN/100ml, Proteus spp (MPN/100ml, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (MPN/100 ml Sulphoreducing Clostridia (cfu / ml. The paper is a retrospective study in which we processed data related to the period of 2005-2009 year. While working, we used the descriptive-analytical comparative statistical treatment.Results: The obtained results show statistically significant differences in the microbial composition of untreated water in the two observed periods,Conclusions: Findings were consequence of different weather conditions in these periods, which imply a number of other variable factors.

  3. Weather conditions influence the number of psychiatric emergency room patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandl, Eva Janina; Lett, Tristram A.; Bakanidze, George; Heinz, Andreas; Bermpohl, Felix; Schouler-Ocak, Meryam

    2017-12-01

    The specific impact of weather factors on psychiatric disorders has been investigated only in few studies with inconsistent results. We hypothesized that meteorological conditions influence the number of cases presenting in a psychiatric emergency room as a measure of mental health conditions. We analyzed the number of patients consulting the emergency room (ER) of a psychiatric hospital in Berlin, Germany, between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2014. A total of N = 22,672 cases were treated in the ER over the study period. Meteorological data were obtained from a publicly available data base. Due to collinearity among the meteorological variables, we performed a principal component (PC) analysis. Association of PCs with the daily number of patients was analyzed with autoregressive integrated moving average model. Delayed effects were investigated using Granger causal modeling. Daily number of patients in the ER was significantly higher in spring and summer compared to fall and winter (p psychiatric patients consulting the emergency room. In particular, our data indicate lower patient numbers during very cold temperatures.

  4. Space weathering of small Koronis family members

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Cristina A.; Rivkin, Andrew S.; Trilling, David E.; Enga, Marie-therese; Grier, Jennifer A.

    2011-03-01

    The space weathering process and its implications for the relationships between S- and Q-type asteroids and ordinary chondrite meteorites is an often debated topic in asteroid science. Q-type asteroids have been shown to display the best spectral match to ordinary chondrites (McFadden, L.A., Gaffey, M.J., McCord, T.B. [1985]. Science 229, 160-163). While the Q-types and ordinary chondrites share some spectral features with S-type asteroids, the S-types have significantly redder spectral slopes than the Q-types in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. This reddening of spectral slope is attributed to the effects of space weathering on the observed surface composition. The analysis by Binzel et al. (Binzel, R.P., Rivkin, A.S., Stuart, J.S., Harris, A.W., Bus, S.J., Burbine, T.H. [2004]. Icarus 170, 259-294) provided a missing link between the Q- and S-type bodies in near-Earth space by showing a reddening of spectral slope in objects from 0.1 to 5 km that corresponded to a transition from Q-type to S-type asteroid spectra, implying that size, and therefore surface age, is related to the relationship between S- and Q-types. The existence of Q-type asteroids in the main-belt was not confirmed until Mothé-Diniz and Nesvorny (Mothé-Diniz, T., Nesvorny, D. [2008]. Astron. Astrophys. 486, L9-L12) found them in young S-type clusters. The young age of these families suggest that the unweathered surface could date to the formation of the family. This leads to the question of whether older S-type main-belt families can contain Q-type objects and display evidence of a transition from Q- to S-type. To answer this question we have carried out a photometric survey of the Koronis family using the Kitt Peak 2.1 m telescope. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the effects of the space weathering process on potentially ordinary chondrite-like bodies within a population of identical initial conditions. We find a trend in spectral slope for objects 1-5 km that shows the

  5. Anomalous effects of radioactive decay rates and capacitance values measured inside a modified Faraday cage: Correlations with space weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholkmann, F.; Milián-Sánchez, V.; Mocholí-Salcedo, A.; Milián, C.; Kolombet, V. A.; Verdú, G.

    2017-03-01

    Recently we reported (Milián-Sánchez V. et al., Nucl. Instrum. Methods A, 828 (2016) 210) our experimental results involving 226Ra decay rate and capacitance measurements inside a modified Faraday cage. Our measurements exhibited anomalous effects of unknown origin. In this letter we report new results regarding our investigation into the origins of the observed effects. We report preliminary findings of a correlation analysis between the radioactive decay rates and capacitance time series and space weather related variables (geomagnetic field disturbances and cosmic-ray neutron counts). A significant correlation was observed for specific data sets. The results are presented and possible implications for future work discussed.

  6. A Fresh Look at Weather Impact on Peak Electricity Demand and Energy Use of Buildings Using 30-Year Actual Weather Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

    2013-05-01

    Buildings consume more than one third of the world?s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980 to 2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: 1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does on energy use in buildings; 2) the simulated energy use using the TMY3 weather data is not necessarily representative of the average energy use over a long period, and the TMY3 results can be significantly higher or lower than those from the AMY data; 3) the weather impact is greater for buildings in colder climates than warmer climates; 4) the weather impact on the medium-sized office building was the greatest, followed by the large office and then the small

  7. Tactical Versus Strategic Behavior: General Aviation Piloting in Convective Weather Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latorella, Kara A.; Chamberlain, James P.

    2002-01-01

    We commonly describe environments and behavioral responses to environmental conditions as 'tactical' and 'strategic.' However theoretical research defining relevant environmental characteristics is rare, as are empirical investigations that would inform such theory. This paper discusses General Aviation (GA) pilots' descriptions of tactical/strategic conditions with respect to weather flying, and evaluates their ratings along a tactical/strategic scale in response to real convective weather scenarios experienced during a flight experiment with different weather information cues. Perceived risk was significantly associated with ratings for all experimental conditions. In addition, environmental characteristics were found to be predictive of ratings for Traditional IMC (instrument meteorological conditions), i.e., aural weather information only, and Traditional VMC (visual meteorological conditions), i.e., aural information and an external view. The paper also presents subjects' comments regarding use of Graphical Weather Information Systems (GWISs) to support tactical and strategic weather flying decisions and concludes with implications for the design and use of GWISs.

  8. On the Nature of People's Reaction to Space Weather and Meteorological Weather Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabarova, O. V.; Dimitrova, S.

    2009-12-01

    Our environment includes many natural and artificial agents affecting any person on the Earth in one way or other. This work is focused on two of them - weather and space weather, which are permanently effective. Their cumulative effect is proved by means of the modeling. It is shown that combination of geomagnetic and solar indices and weather strength parameter (which includes six main meteorological parameters) correlates with health state significantly better (up to R=0.7), than separate environmental parameters do. The typical shape of any health characteristics' time-series during human body reaction to any negative impact represents a curve, well-known in medicine as a General Adaptation Syndrome curve by Hans Selye. We demonstrate this on the base of blood pressure time-series and acupunctural experiment data, averaged by group. The first stage of adaptive stress-reaction (resistance to stress) is sometimes observed 1-2 days before geomagnetic storm onset. The effect of "outstripping reaction to magnetic storm", named Tchizhevsky- Velkhover effect, had been known for many years, but its explanation was obtained recently due to the consideration of the near-Earth space plasma processes. It was shown that lowfrequency variations of the solar wind density on a background of the density growth can stimulate the development of the geomagnetic filed (GMF) variations of the wide frequency range. These variations seem to have "bioeffective frequencies", resonant with own frequencies of body organs and systems. The mechanism of human body reaction is supposed to be a parametrical resonance in low-frequency range (which is determined by the resonance in large-scale organs and systems) and a simple forced resonance in GHz-range of variations (the resonance of micro-objects in the organism such as DNA, cell membranes, blood ions etc.) Given examples of mass-reaction of the objects to ULF-range GMF variations during quiet space weather time prove this hypothesis.

  9. Weather and children's physical activity; how and why do relationships vary between countries?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Flo; Goodman, Anna; van Sluijs, Esther M F; Andersen, Lars Bo; Cardon, Greet; Davey, Rachel; Janz, Kathleen F; Kriemler, Susi; Molloy, Lynn; Page, Angie S; Pate, Russ; Puder, Jardena J; Sardinha, Luis B; Timperio, Anna; Wedderkopp, Niels; Jones, Andy P

    2017-05-30

    Globally most children do not engage in enough physical activity. Day length and weather conditions have been identified as determinants of physical activity, although how they may be overcome as barriers is not clear. We aim to examine if and how relationships between children's physical activity and weather and day length vary between countries and identify settings in which children were better able to maintain activity levels given the weather conditions they experienced. In this repeated measures study, we used data from 23,451 participants in the International Children's Accelerometry Database (ICAD). Daily accelerometer-measured physical activity (counts per minute; cpm) was matched to local weather conditions and the relationships assessed using multilevel regression models. Multilevel models accounted for clustering of days within occasions within children within study-cities, and allowed us to explore if and how the relationships between weather variables and physical activity differ by setting. Increased precipitation and wind speed were associated with decreased cpm while better visibility and more hours of daylight were associated with increased cpm. Models indicated that increases in these variables resulted in average changes in mean cpm of 7.6/h of day length, -13.2/cm precipitation, 10.3/10 km visibility and -10.3/10kph wind speed (all p European countries and Melbourne, Australia were the most active, and also better maintained their activity levels given the weather conditions they experienced compared to those in the US and Western Europe. We found variation in the relationship between weather conditions and physical activity between ICAD studies and settings. Children in Northern Europe and Melbourne, Australia were not only more active on average, but also more active given the weather conditions they experienced. Future work should consider strategies to mitigate the impacts of weather conditions, especially among young children, and

  10. Weathering durability of commercial polymeric coatings tested by positron annihilation spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, H.; Peng, Q.; Huang, Y.Y.; Zhang, R.; Li, Y.; Zhang, J.; Wu, Y.C.; Richardson, J.R.; Sandreczki, T.C.; Jean, Y.C.

    2003-01-01

    A series of commercial coatings were prepared according to the industrial specifications and were exposed to Florida natural weathering and controlled UVA irradiation. The Doppler broadening energy spectra (DBES) of positron annihilation were measured as a function of incident positron energy at different periods of weathering. A significant decrease in the S parameter was observed and it was used as an indicator to test coating durability in micro-scale. Application to weathering durability of commercial polymeric coatings under natural weathering and controlled UVA irradiation is investigated by using the S parameter from the DBES

  11. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...... necessitate an updated review of the state of the art in such radar rainfall data and applications. Three key areas with significant advances over the past decade have been identified: (1) temporal and spatial resolution of rainfall data required for different types of hydrological applications, (2) rainfall...... estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...

  12. Space weather monitoring with neutron monitor measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steigies, Christian [Christian-Albrechts-Universitaet zu Kiel (Germany)

    2013-07-01

    Space Weather affects many areas of the modern society, advance knowledge about space weather events is important to protect personnel and infrastructure. Cosmic Rays (CR) measurements by ground-based Neutron Monitors are influenced by Coronal Mass Ejections (CME), the intensity of the ever present Cosmic Rays is reduced in a Forbush decrease (Fd). In the case of very energetic CMEs, the measured intensity can be significantly increased in a Ground Level Enhancement (GLE). By detecting the anisotropy of the CR environment, a CME can be detected hours before it arrives at Earth. During a GLE the high-energy particles from the Sun can be detected before the more abundant lower energy particles arrive at Earth, thus allowing to take protective measures. Since the beginning of the Neutron Monitor Database (NMDB) project, which has been started in 2008 with funding from the European Commission, real-time data from Neutron Monitors around the world has been made available through one web-portal. We have more than doubled the number of stations providing data since the start of the project to now over 30 stations. The effectiveness of the ALERT applications which are based on NMDB data has been shown by the recent GLE71. We present different applications through which the measurements and different data products are accessible.

  13. A 17-year Record of Meteorological Observations Across the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap in Southern Patagonia, Chile, Related to Synoptic Weather Types and Climate Modes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie S. Weidemann

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The network of long-term meteorological observations in Southernmost Patagonia is still sparse but crucial to improve our understanding of climatic variability, in particular in the more elevated and partially glaciated Southernmost Andes. Here we present a unique 17-year meteorological record (2000–2016 of four automatic weather stations (AWS across the Gran Campo Nevado Ice Cap (53°S in the Southernmost Andes (Chile and the conventional weather station Jorge Schythe of the Instituto de la Patagonia in Punta Arenas for comparison. We revisit the relationship between in situ observations and large-scale climate models as well as mesoscale weather patterns. For this purpose, a 37-year record of ERA Interim Reanalysis data has been used to compute a weather type classification based on a hierarchical correlation-based leader algorithm. The orographic perturbation on the predominantly westerly airflow determines the hydroclimatic response across the mountain range, leading to significant west-east gradients of precipitation, air temperature and humidity. Annual precipitation sums heavily drop within only tens of kilometers from ~7,500 mm a−1 to less than 800 mm a−1. The occurrence of high precipitation events of up to 620 mm in 5 days and wet spells of up to 61 consecutive days underscore the year-around wet conditions in the Southernmost Andes. Given the strong link between large-scale circulation and orographically controlled precipitation, the synoptic-scale weather conditions largely determine the precipitation and temperature variability on all time scales. Major synoptic weather types with distinct low-pressure cells in the Weddell Sea or Bellingshausen Sea, causing a prevailing southwesterly, northwesterly or westerly airflow, determine the weather conditions in Southernmost Patagonia during 68% of the year. At Gran Campo Nevado, more than 80% of extreme precipitation events occur during the persistence of these weather types. The

  14. Weather sensitivity for zoo visitation in Toronto, Canada: a quantitative analysis of historical data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hewer, Micah J.; Gough, William A.

    2016-11-01

    Based on a case study of the Toronto Zoo (Canada), multivariate regression analysis, involving both climatic and social variables, was employed to assess the relationship between daily weather and visitation. Zoo visitation was most sensitive to weather variability during the shoulder season, followed by the off-season and, then, the peak season. Temperature was the most influential weather variable in relation to zoo visitation, followed by precipitation and, then, wind speed. The intensity and direction of the social and climatic variables varied between seasons. Temperatures exceeding 26 °C during the shoulder season and 28 °C during the peak season suggested a behavioural threshold associated with zoo visitation, with conditions becoming too warm for certain segments of the zoo visitor market, causing visitor numbers to decline. Even light amounts of precipitation caused average visitor numbers to decline by nearly 50 %. Increasing wind speeds also demonstrated a negative influence on zoo visitation.

  15. Weather Effects on Crop Diseases in Eastern Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conradt, Tobias

    2017-04-01

    Since the 1970s there are several long-term monitoring programmes for plant diseases and pests in Germany. Within the framework of a national research project, some otherwise confidential databases comprising 77 111 samples from numerous sites accross Eastern Germany could be accessed and analysed. The pest data covered leaf rust (Puccinia triticina) and powdery mildew (Blumeria graminis) in winter wheat, aphids (Aphididae, four genera) on wheat and other cereal crops, late blight (Phytophthora infestans) in potatoes, and pollen beetles (Brassicogethes aeneus) on rape. These data were complemented by daily weather observations from the German Weather Service (DWD). In a first step, Pearson correlations between weather variables and pest frequencies were calculated for seasonal time periods of different start months and durations and ordered into so-called correlograms. This revealed principal weather effects on disease spread - e. g. that wind is favourable for mildew throughout the year or that rape pollen beetles like it warm, but not during wintertime. Secondly, the pest frequency samples were found to resemble gamma distributions, and a generalised linear model was fitted to describe their parameter shift depending on end-of-winter temperatures for aphids on cereals. The method clearly shows potential for systematic pest risk assessments regarding climate change.

  16. Fatal crashes involving large numbers of vehicles and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying; Liang, Liming; Evans, Leonard

    2017-12-01

    Adverse weather has been recognized as a significant threat to traffic safety. However, relationships between fatal crashes involving large numbers of vehicles and weather are rarely studied according to the low occurrence of crashes involving large numbers of vehicles. By using all 1,513,792 fatal crashes in the Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) data, 1975-2014, we successfully described these relationships. We found: (a) fatal crashes involving more than 35 vehicles are most likely to occur in snow or fog; (b) fatal crashes in rain are three times as likely to involve 10 or more vehicles as fatal crashes in good weather; (c) fatal crashes in snow [or fog] are 24 times [35 times] as likely to involve 10 or more vehicles as fatal crashes in good weather. If the example had used 20 vehicles, the risk ratios would be 6 for rain, 158 for snow, and 171 for fog. To reduce the risk of involvement in fatal crashes with large numbers of vehicles, drivers should slow down more than they currently do under adverse weather conditions. Driver deaths per fatal crash increase slowly with increasing numbers of involved vehicles when it is snowing or raining, but more steeply when clear or foggy. We conclude that in order to reduce risk of involvement in crashes involving large numbers of vehicles, drivers must reduce speed in fog, and in snow or rain, reduce speed by even more than they already do. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Impacts of Snowy Weather Conditions on Expressway Traffic Flow Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiancheng Weng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Snowy weather will significantly degrade expressway operations, reduce service levels, and increase driving difficulty. Furthermore, the impact of snow varies in different types of roads, diverse cities, and snow densities due to different driving behavior. Traffic flow parameters are essential to decide what should be appropriate for weather-related traffic management and control strategies. This paper takes Beijing as a case study and analyzes traffic flow data collected by detectors in expressways. By comparing the performance of traffic flow under normal and snowy weather conditions, this paper quantitatively describes the impact of adverse weather on expressway volume and average speeds. Results indicate that average speeds on the Beijing expressway under heavy snow conditions decrease by 10–20 km/h when compared to those under normal weather conditions, the vehicle headway generally increases by 2–4 seconds, and the road capacity drops by about 33%. This paper also develops a specific expressway traffic parameter reduction model which proposes reduction coefficients of expressway volumes and speeds under various snow density conditions in Beijing. The conclusions paper provide effective foundational parameters for urban expressway controls and traffic management under snow conditions.

  18. The effect of inclement weather on trauma orthopaedic workload.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Cashman, J P

    2012-01-31

    BACKGROUND: Climate change models predict increasing frequency of extreme weather. One of the challenges hospitals face is how to make sure they have adequate staffing at various times of the year. AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of this severe inclement weather on hospital admissions, operative workload and cost in the Irish setting. We hypothesised that there is a direct relationship between cold weather and workload in a regional orthopaedic trauma unit. METHODS: Trauma orthopaedic workload in a regional trauma unit was examined over 2 months between December 2009 and January 2010. This corresponded with a period of severe inclement weather. RESULTS: We identified a direct correlation between the drop in temperature and increase in workload, with a corresponding increase in demand on resources. CONCLUSIONS: Significant cost savings could be made if these injuries were prevented. While the information contained in this study is important in the context of resource planning and staffing of hospital trauma units, it also highlights the vulnerability of the Irish population to wintery weather.

  19. Weather impacts on leisure activities in Halifax, Nova Scotia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spinney, Jamie E. L.; Millward, Hugh

    2011-03-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of daily atmospheric weather conditions on daily leisure activity engagement, with a focus on physically active leisure. The methods capitalize on time diary data that were collected in Halifax, Nova Scotia to calculate objective measures of leisure activity engagement. Daily meteorological data from Environment Canada and daily sunrise and sunset times from the National Research Council of Canada are used to develop objective measures of the natural atmospheric environment. The time diary data were merged with the meteorological data in order to quantify the statistical association between daily weather conditions and the type, participation rate, frequency, and duration of leisure activity engagement. The results indicate that inclement and uncomfortable weather conditions, especially relating to thermal comfort and mechanical comfort, pose barriers to physically active leisure engagement, while promoting sedentary and home-based leisure activities. Overall, daily weather conditions exhibit modest, but significant, effects on leisure activity engagement; the strongest associations being for outdoor active sports and outdoor active leisure time budgets. In conclusion, weather conditions influence the type, participation rate, frequency, and duration of leisure activity engagement, which is an important consideration for health-promotion programming.

  20. Federal Aviation Administration weather program to improve aviation safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wedan, R. W.

    1983-01-01

    The implementation of the National Airspace System (NAS) will improve safety services to aviation. These services include collision avoidance, improved landing systems and better weather data acquisition and dissemination. The program to improve the quality of weather information includes the following: Radar Remote Weather Display System; Flight Service Automation System; Automatic Weather Observation System; Center Weather Processor, and Next Generation Weather Radar Development.

  1. Weather data for simplified energy calculation methods. Volume IV. United States: WYEC data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olsen, A.R.; Moreno, S.; Deringer, J.; Watson, C.R.

    1984-08-01

    The objective of this report is to provide a source of weather data for direct use with a number of simplified energy calculation methods available today. Complete weather data for a number of cities in the United States are provided for use in the following methods: degree hour, modified degree hour, bin, modified bin, and variable degree day. This report contains sets of weather data for 23 cities using Weather Year for Energy Calculations (WYEC) source weather data. Considerable overlap is present in cities (21) covered by both the TRY and WYEC data. The weather data at each city has been summarized in a number of ways to provide differing levels of detail necessary for alternative simplified energy calculation methods. Weather variables summarized include dry bulb and wet bulb temperature, percent relative humidity, humidity ratio, wind speed, percent possible sunshine, percent diffuse solar radiation, total solar radiation on horizontal and vertical surfaces, and solar heat gain through standard DSA glass. Monthly and annual summaries, in some cases by time of day, are available. These summaries are produced in a series of nine computer generated tables.

  2. Seasonal weather-related decision making for cattle production in the Northern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    High inter-annual variability of seasonal weather patterns can greatly affect forage and therefore livestock production in the Northern Great Plains. This variability can make it difficult for ranchers to set yearly stocking rates, particularly in advance of the grazing season. To better understand ...

  3. Effects of weather and tailings properties on tailings drying times

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gantzer, C.; Fasking, T.; Costello, M.; Greenwood, J. [Barr Engineering, Calgary, AB (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    This PowerPoint presentation presented the results of a study conducted to determine the effects of weather and tailings properties on tailings drying times. Weather conditions have a significant impact the potential evaporation (PE) and actual evaporation (AE) of oil sands tailings. A 2-stage drying of slurry at a constant PE was conducted to determine the shrinkage limit of untreated mature fine tailings (MFT). An evaporation and seepage model was used to determine maximum first-stage drying rates. Measurements were also taken in a wind tunnel. Potential evaporation rates were calculated and evaporative water losses from the MFT were determined. Estimated drying times were presented. Results of the approach were compared with field measurements conducted in a previous study. Results of the study showed that evaporative water loss rates for May through August were limited by the properties of the tailings. Water loss rates were limited by weather for other months in the year-long study. tabs., figs.

  4. Acidic weathering of carbonate building stones: experimental assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryszard Kryza

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Three types of carbonate rocks, travertine, limestone and marble have been studied to determine their selected technical parameters (water absorption, resistance to salt crystallization damage and reaction to experimentally modelled acid rain weathering imitating the polluted urban atmospheric conditions. The acidic agents present in natural acid rain precipitation, H2SO4, HCl, HNO3, CH3COOH and mixture of all the acids, “Acid mix”, were tested. The initial stages of acid weathering involve, apart from chemical dissolution, particularly intense physical detachment of rock particles (granular disintegration significantly contributing to the total mass loss. Travertine was found to be most prone to salt crystallization damage and to acid weathering, and these features should be taken into account especially in external architectural usage of this stone in cold climate conditions and polluted urban atmosphere.

  5. Weather Radar Adjustment Using Runoff from Urban Surfaces

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahm, Malte; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

    2017-01-01

    Weather radar data used for urban drainage applications are traditionally adjusted to point ground references, e.g., rain gauges. However, the available rain gauge density for the adjustment is often low, which may lead to significant representativeness errors. Yet, in many urban catchments, rain...

  6. What can the annual 10Be solar activity reconstructions tell us about historic space weather?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Luke; McCracken, Ken G.; Owens, Mat J.; Lockwood, Mike

    2018-04-01

    Context: Cosmogenic isotopes provide useful estimates of past solar magnetic activity, constraining past space climate with reasonable uncertainty. Much less is known about past space weather conditions. Recent advances in the analysis of 10Be by McCracken & Beer (2015, Sol Phys 290: 305-3069) (MB15) suggest that annually resolved 10Be can be significantly affected by solar energetic particle (SEP) fluxes. This poses a problem, and presents an opportunity, as the accurate quantification of past solar magnetic activity requires the SEP effects to be determined and isolated, whilst doing so might provide a valuable record of past SEP fluxes. Aims: We compare the MB15 reconstruction of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF), with two independent estimates of the HMF derived from sunspot records and geomagnetic variability. We aim to quantify the differences between the HMF reconstructions, and speculate on the origin of these differences. We test whether the differences between the reconstructions appear to depend on known significant space weather events. Methods: We analyse the distributions of the differences between the HMF reconstructions. We consider how the differences vary as a function of solar cycle phase, and, using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, we compare the distributions under the two conditions of whether or not large space weather events were known to have occurred. Results: We find that the MB15 reconstructions are generally marginally smaller in magnitude than the sunspot and geomagnetic HMF reconstructions. This bias varies as a function of solar cycle phase, and is largest in the declining phase of the solar cycle. We find that MB15's excision of the years with very large ground level enhancement (GLE) improves the agreement of the 10Be HMF estimate with the sunspot and geomagnetic reconstructions. We find no statistical evidence that GLEs, in general, affect the MB15 reconstruction, but this analysis is limited by having too few samples. We do find

  7. Planetary boundary influence at the Jungfraujoch analyzed by aerosol cycles and synoptic weather types

    OpenAIRE

    M. Collaud Coen; E. Weingartner; M. Furger; S. Nyeki; A. S. H. Prévôt; M. Steinbacher; U. Baltensperger

    2011-01-01

    Fourteen years of meteorological parameters, aerosol variables (absorption and scattering coefficients, aerosol number concentration) and trace gases (CO, NOx, SO2) measured at the Jungfraujoch (JFJ, 3580 m a.s.l.) have been analyzed as a function of different synoptic weather types. The Alpine Weather Statistics (AWS) classification was used to define the synoptic meteorology over the whole Swiss region. The seasonal contribution of each syn...

  8. Graphical tools for TV weather presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najman, M.

    2010-09-01

    Contemporary meteorology and its media presentation faces in my opinion following key tasks: - Delivering the meteorological information to the end user/spectator in understandable and modern fashion, which follows industry standard of video output (HD, 16:9) - Besides weather icons show also the outputs of numerical weather prediction models, climatological data, satellite and radar images, observed weather as actual as possible. - Does not compromise the accuracy of presented data. - Ability to prepare and adjust the weather show according to actual synoptic situtation. - Ability to refocus and completely adjust the weather show to actual extreme weather events. - Ground map resolution weather data presentation need to be at least 20 m/pixel to be able to follow the numerical weather prediction model resolution. - Ability to switch between different numerical weather prediction models each day, each show or even in the middle of one weather show. - The graphical weather software need to be flexible and fast. The graphical changes nee to be implementable and airable within minutes before the show or even live. These tasks are so demanding and the usual original approach of custom graphics could not deal with it. It was not able to change the show every day, the shows were static and identical day after day. To change the content of the weather show daily was costly and most of the time impossible with the usual approach. The development in this area is fast though and there are several different options for weather predicting organisations such as national meteorological offices and private meteorological companies to solve this problem. What are the ways to solve it? What are the limitations and advantages of contemporary graphical tools for meteorologists? All these questions will be answered.

  9. Geomorphology's role in the study of weathering of cultural stone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pope, Gregory A.; Meierding, Thomas C.; Paradise, Thomas R.

    2002-10-01

    Great monumental places—Petra, Giza, Angkor, Stonehenge, Tikal, Macchu Picchu, Rapa Nui, to name a few—are links to our cultural past. They evoke a sense of wonderment for their aesthetic fascination if not for their seeming permanence over both cultural and physical landscapes. However, as with natural landforms, human constructs are subject to weathering and erosion. Indeed, many of our cultural resources suffer from serious deterioration, some natural, some enhanced by human impact. Groups from the United Nations to local civic and tourism assemblies are deeply interested in maintaining and preserving such cultural resources, from simple rock art to great temples. Geomorphologists trained in interacting systems, process and response to thresholds, rates of change over time, and spatial variation of weathering processes and effects are able to offer insight into how deterioration occurs and what can be done to ameliorate the impact. Review of recent literature and case studies presented here demonstrate methodological and theoretical advances that have resulted from the study of cultural stone weathering. Because the stone was carved at a known date to a "baseline" or zero-datum level, some of the simplest methods (e.g., assessing surface weathering features or measuring surface recession in the field) provide useful data on weathering rates and processes. Such data are difficult or impossible to obtain in "natural" settings. Cultural stone weathering studies demonstrate the importance of biotic and saline weathering agents and the significance of weathering factors such as exposure (microclimate) and human impact. More sophisticated methods confirm these observations, but also reveal discrepancies between field and laboratory studies. This brings up two important caveats for conservators and geomorphologists. For the conservator, are laboratory and natural setting studies really analogous and useful for assessing stone damage? For the geomorphologist, does

  10. A good farmer pays attention to the weather

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lois Wright Morton

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A key message of the 2014 US 3rd National Climate Assessment report is that climate change poses threats to agriculture and will require adaptation and mitigation by farmers. In the upper Midwest, the increase in total precipitation and a 37% increase in very heavy precipitation over the past 40 years are expected to continue and affect the productivity of corn-based cropping systems. The current situation and weather projections suggest that in the future, significant degradation of soil and water resources can be expected. While a number of adaptive management strategies have potential to address soil erosion, poor water quality, and production losses, farmer responses to a changing climate are not well understood. The research presented here examines how farmers’ self-identity as “a good farmer” can translate into specific incremental and transformative adaptations of farming strategies. Analysis of a 2012 survey of 4778 upper Midwest farmers finds that three nodes in the identity control model, the biophysical situation, reflected appraisals comprised of a set of beliefs which are sources of information input, and a farmer’s identities, influence variations in selected adaptive management practices. The biophysical situation (flooding, drought, saturated soils, and/or having a river run through the farm are significant explanatory variables in seven of the eight models and farmer’s identities, conservationist and/or productivist, are significant in all models. This is evidence that farmers are paying attention to the biophysical situation as well as being guided by their own understandings of themselves as good farmers in making decisions about their farm operation. More research is needed to better understand what activates identities, core values and beliefs and how some values are privileged over others in adaptive decisions. This work suggests that educators and policymakers should focus on interventions, incentives and

  11. Acute Low Back Pain? Do Not Blame the Weather-A Case-Crossover Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beilken, Keira; Hancock, Mark J; Maher, Chris G; Li, Qiang; Steffens, Daniel

    2017-06-01

    To investigate the influence of various weather parameters on the risk of developing a low back pain (LBP) episode. Case-crossover study. Primary care clinics in Sydney, Australia. 981 participants with a new episode of acute LBP. Weather parameters were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were derived comparing two exposure variables in the case window-(1) the average of the weather variable for the day prior to pain onset and (2) the change in the weather variable from 2 days prior to 1 day prior to pain onset-with exposures in two control windows (1 week and 1 month before the case window). The weather parameters of precipitation, humidity, wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, and air pressure were not associated with the onset of acute LBP. For one of the four analyses, higher temperature slightly increased the odds of pain onset. Common weather parameters that had been previously linked to musculoskeletal pain, such as precipitation, humidity, wind speed, wind gust, wind direction, and air pressure, do not increase the risk of onset for LBP. © 2016 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  12. A fresh look at weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings using 30-year actual weather data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Tianzhen; Chang, Wen-Kuei; Lin, Hung-Wen

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use. • Weather impact varies with building type, building efficiency level, and location. • Simulated results using TMY3 weather data can under or over estimate those of AMY. • It is crucial to assess performance of buildings using long-term actual weather data. • Findings enable building stakeholders to make better decisions on weather impact. - Abstract: Buildings consume more than one third of the world’s total primary energy. Weather plays a unique and significant role as it directly affects the thermal loads and thus energy performance of buildings. The traditional simulated energy performance using Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) weather data represents the building performance for a typical year, but not necessarily the average or typical long-term performance as buildings with different energy systems and designs respond differently to weather changes. Furthermore, the single-year TMY simulations do not provide a range of results that capture yearly variations due to changing weather, which is important for building energy management, and for performing risk assessments of energy efficiency investments. This paper employs large-scale building simulation (a total of 3162 runs) to study the weather impact on peak electricity demand and energy use with the 30-year (1980–2009) Actual Meteorological Year (AMY) weather data for three types of office buildings at two design efficiency levels, across all 17 ASHRAE climate zones. The simulated results using the AMY data are compared to those from the TMY3 data to determine and analyze the differences. Besides further demonstration, as done by other studies, that actual weather has a significant impact on both the peak electricity demand and energy use of buildings, the main findings from the current study include: (1) annual weather variation has a greater impact on the peak electricity demand than it does

  13. Space weather and power grids: findings and outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Andersson, Emmelie; Murtagh, William; Mitchison, Neil

    2014-05-01

    in industry against moderate space weather, the vulnerability of the power grid with respect to Carrington-type events is less conclusive and needs to be assessed. • The assessment of space-weather impact on society needs to consider possible interdependencies between critical infrastructures. These interdependencies are not routinely assessed. • Effective risk communication is required to bridge the gap between science and policy and to convey the significance of scientific results to decision makers. • Emergency-response planning for a severe space-weather event needs to consider the full range of potential impacts on critical infrastructure. • For a severe geomagnetic storm inter-institutional and probably international emergency planning efforts are required as response capabilities of individual countries might be overloaded. • In the USA work is in progress to augment the existing regulatory requirements for power-grid operations by introducing new standards to better meet the challenges posed by space-weather risk.

  14. Socio-Economic Impacts of Space Weather and User Needs for Space Weather Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, S. L.; Taylor, S. M.; Onsager, T. G.; Adkins, J. E.; Baker, D. N.; Forbes, K. F.

    2017-12-01

    The 2015 National Space Weather Strategy and Space Weather Action Plan (SWAP) details the activities, outcomes, and timelines to build a "Space Weather Ready Nation." NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and Abt Associates are working together on two SWAP initiatives: (1) identifying, describing, and quantifying the socio-economic impacts of moderate and severe space weather; and (2) outreach to engineers and operators to better understand user requirements for space weather products and services. Both studies cover four technological sectors (electric power, commercial aviation, satellites, and GNSS users) and rely heavily on industry input. Findings from both studies are essential for decreasing vulnerabilities and enhancing preparedness.

  15. Space weather and space anomalies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available A large database of anomalies, registered by 220 satellites in different orbits over the period 1971-1994 has been compiled. For the first time, data from 49 Russian Kosmos satellites have been included in a statistical analysis. The database also contains a large set of daily and hourly space weather parameters. A series of statistical analyses made it possible to quantify, for different satellite orbits, space weather conditions on the days characterized by anomaly occurrences. In particular, very intense fluxes (>1000 pfu at energy >10 MeV of solar protons are linked to anomalies registered by satellites in high-altitude (>15000 km, near-polar (inclination >55° orbits typical for navigation satellites, such as those used in the GPS network, NAVSTAR, etc. (the rate of anomalies increases by a factor ~20, and to a much smaller extent to anomalies in geostationary orbits, (they increase by a factor ~4. Direct and indirect connections between anomaly occurrence and geomagnetic perturbations are also discussed.

  16. Analysis on the Intention to Purchase Weather Index Insurance and Development Agenda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, K.; Jung, J.; Shin, J.; Kim, B.

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyze how to revitalize weather insurance. Current state of weather insurance market is firstly described, and the necessity of insurance products and intention to purchase are analyzed based on the recognition survey regarding weather insurance focusing on the weather index insurance. The result of intention to purchase insurance products were examined with Ordered Logit Analysis (OLA), indicating that the amount of damages, the impacts of weather change, and experience of damage and loss have a positive relationship with the intention to purchase weather insurance. In addition, recognition of the amount of acceptable payment for insurance (i.e. willingness to pay) was analyzed for both the group who wants to purchase insurance (Group 1) and the group who does not want to (Group 2). The results demonstrate that Group 1 shows statistically higher significance than Group 2. Based on the results above with the increase in abnormal weather phenomena, we could predict that the amount of damages and losses will be rapidly increasing. The portion of weather insurance market is also expected to consistently develop and expand. This study could be a cornerstone for drawing a plan to revitalize weather insurance.

  17. Different responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors among Shanghai, Hong Kong, and British Columbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xi-Ling; Yang, Lin; He, Dai-Hai; Chiu, Alice Py; Chan, Kwok-Hung; Chan, King-Pan; Zhou, Maigeng; Wong, Chit-Ming; Guo, Qing; Hu, Wenbiao

    2017-06-01

    Weather factors have long been considered as key sources for regional heterogeneity of influenza seasonal patterns. As influenza peaks coincide with both high and low temperature in subtropical cities, weather factors may nonlinearly or interactively affect influenza activity. This study aims to assess the nonlinear and interactive effects of weather factors with influenza activity and compare the responses of influenza epidemic to weather factors in two subtropical regions of southern China (Shanghai and Hong Kong) and one temperate province of Canada (British Columbia). Weekly data on influenza activity and weather factors (i.e., mean temperature and relative humidity (RH)) were obtained from pertinent government departments for the three regions. Absolute humidity (AH) was measured by vapor pressure (VP), which could be converted from temperature and RH. Generalized additive models were used to assess the exposure-response relationship between weather factors and influenza virus activity. Interactions of weather factors were further assessed by bivariate response models and stratification analyses. The exposure-response curves of temperature and VP, but not RH, were consistent among three regions/cities. Bivariate response model revealed a significant interactive effect between temperature (or VP) and RH (P weather factors in developing a universal model to explain seasonal outbreaks of influenza. However, further research is needed to assess the association between weather factors and influenza activity in a wider context of social and environmental conditions.

  18. New Technologies for Weather Accident Prevention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stough, H. Paul, III; Watson, James F., Jr.; Daniels, Taumi S.; Martzaklis, Konstantinos S.; Jarrell, Michael A.; Bogue, Rodney K.

    2005-01-01

    Weather is a causal factor in thirty percent of all aviation accidents. Many of these accidents are due to a lack of weather situation awareness by pilots in flight. Improving the strategic and tactical weather information available and its presentation to pilots in flight can enhance weather situation awareness and enable avoidance of adverse conditions. This paper presents technologies for airborne detection, dissemination and display of weather information developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in partnership with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), industry and the research community. These technologies, currently in the initial stages of implementation by industry, will provide more precise and timely knowledge of the weather and enable pilots in flight to make decisions that result in safer and more efficient operations.

  19. Effects of weathering on impregnated charcoal performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deitz, V.R.

    1977-10-01

    Commercial activated charcoals have been exposed to known contaminants under controlled laboratory conditions and also to large volumes of outdoor air and each sample then evaluated for methyl iodide penetration. There is strong evidence that the interaction of water vapor and the charcoal is a significant factor in the degradation of the charcoals when the relative humidity is 70% and greater. The laboratory air mixtures studied were water vapor, water vapor and sulfur dioxide, water vapor and ozone, and water vapor and carbon monoxide. The charcoal in each of the four 0.5-in. layers making up the 2-in. test bed was degraded by the contaminants, but the first layer was influenced most. For the same charcoal the cumulative effect during one, two, and three months of weathering with outdoor air led to a progressive increase in methyl iodide penetration. The experimentation is being extended to additional commercial charcoals and to additional contaminant species in the laboratory experiments

  20. Weather radar rainfall data in urban hydrology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Einfalt, Thomas; Willems, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    estimation, radar data adjustment and data quality, and (3) nowcasting of radar rainfall and real-time applications. Based on these three fields of research, the paper provides recommendations based on an updated overview of shortcomings, gains, and novel developments in relation to urban hydrological...... applications. The paper also reviews how the focus in urban hydrology research has shifted over the last decade to fields such as climate change impacts, resilience of urban areas to hydrological extremes, and online prediction/warning systems. It is discussed how radar rainfall data can add value......Application of weather radar data in urban hydrological applications has evolved significantly during the past decade as an alternative to traditional rainfall observations with rain gauges. Advances in radar hardware, data processing, numerical models, and emerging fields within urban hydrology...

  1. Development of heat and drought related extreme weather events and their effect on winter wheat yields in Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüttger, Andrea B.; Feike, Til

    2018-04-01

    Climate change constitutes a major challenge for high productivity in wheat, the most widely grown crop in Germany. Extreme weather events including dry spells and heat waves, which negatively affect wheat yields, are expected to aggravate in the future. It is crucial to improve the understanding of the spatiotemporal development of such extreme weather events and the respective crop-climate relationships in Germany. Thus, the present study is a first attempt to evaluate the historic development of relevant drought and heat-related extreme weather events from 1901 to 2010 on county level (NUTS-3) in Germany. Three simple drought indices and two simple heat stress indices were used in the analysis. A continuous increase in dry spells over time was observed over the investigated periods from 1901-1930, 1931-1960, 1961-1990 to 2001-2010. Short and medium dry spells, i.e., precipitation-free periods longer than 5 and 8 days, respectively, increased more strongly compared to longer dry spells (longer than 11 days). The heat-related stress indices with maximum temperatures above 25 and 28 °C during critical wheat growth phases showed no significant increase over the first three periods but an especially sharp increase in the final 1991-2010 period with the increases being particularly pronounced in parts of Southwestern Germany. Trend analysis over the entire 110-year period using Mann-Kendall test revealed a significant positive trend for all investigated indices except for heat stress above 25 °C during flowering period. The analysis of county-level yield data from 1981 to 2010 revealed declining spatial yield variability and rather constant temporal yield variability over the three investigated (1981-1990, 1991-2000, and 2001-2010) decades. A clear spatial gradient manifested over time with variability in the West being much smaller than in the east of Germany. Correlating yield variability with the previously analyzed extreme weather indices revealed strong

  2. Space Weather and Real-Time Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Watari

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advance of information and communications technology enables to collect a large amount of ground-based and space-based observation data in real-time. The real-time data realize nowcast of space weather. This paper reports a history of space weather by the International Space Environment Service (ISES in association with the International Geophysical Year (IGY and importance of real-time monitoring in space weather.

  3. Weather Augmented Risk Determination (WARD) System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niknejad, M.; Mazdiyasni, O.; Momtaz, F.; AghaKouchak, A.

    2017-12-01

    Extreme climatic events have direct and indirect impacts on society, economy and the environment. Based on the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data, over one third of the U.S. GDP can be considered as weather-sensitive involving some degree of weather risk. This expands from a local scale concrete foundation construction to large scale transportation systems. Extreme and unexpected weather conditions have always been considered as one of the probable risks to human health, productivity and activities. The construction industry is a large sector of the economy, and is also greatly influenced by weather-related risks including work stoppage and low labor productivity. Identification and quantification of these risks, and providing mitigation of their effects are always the concerns of construction project managers. In addition to severe weather conditions' destructive effects, seasonal changes in weather conditions can also have negative impacts on human health. Work stoppage and reduced labor productivity can be caused by precipitation, wind, temperature, relative humidity and other weather conditions. Historical and project-specific weather information can improve better project management and mitigation planning, and ultimately reduce the risk of weather-related conditions. This paper proposes new software for project-specific user-defined data analysis that offers (a) probability of work stoppage and the estimated project length considering weather conditions; (b) information on reduced labor productivity and its impacts on project duration; and (c) probabilistic information on the project timeline based on both weather-related work stoppage and labor productivity. The software (WARD System) is designed such that it can be integrated into the already available project management tools. While the system and presented application focuses on the construction industry, the developed software is general and can be used for any application that involves

  4. Carbon dioxide efficiency of terrestrial enhanced weathering

    OpenAIRE

    Moosdorf, Nils; Renforth, Philip; Hartmann, Jens

    2014-01-01

    Terrestrial enhanced weathering, the spreading of ultramafic silicate rock flour to enhance natural weathering rates, has been suggested as part of a strategy to reduce global atmospheric CO2 levels. We budget potential CO2 sequestration against associated CO2 emissions to assess the net CO2 removal of terrestrial enhanced weathering. We combine global spatial data sets of potential source rocks, transport networks, and application areas with associated CO2 emissions in optimistic and pessimi...

  5. Models of Weather Impact on Air Traffic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Deepak; Wang, Yao

    2017-01-01

    Flight delays have been a serious problem in the national airspace system costing about $30B per year. About 70 of the delays are attributed to weather and upto two thirds of these are avoidable. Better decision support tools would reduce these delays and improve air traffic management tools. Such tools would benefit from models of weather impacts on the airspace operations. This presentation discusses use of machine learning methods to mine various types of weather and traffic data to develop such models.

  6. Availability of high quality weather data measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Elsa; Johansen, Jakob Berg; Furbo, Simon

    In the period 2016-2017 the project “Availability of high quality weather data measurements” is carried out at Department of Civil Engineering at the Technical University of Denmark. The aim of the project is to establish measured high quality weather data which will be easily available...... for the building energy branch and the solar energy branch in their efforts to achieve energy savings and for researchers and students carrying out projects where measured high quality weather data are needed....

  7. Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

    2015-05-21

    This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

  8. Reproducibility of Carbon and Water Cycle by an Ecosystem Process Based Model Using a Weather Generator and Effect of Temporal Concentration of Precipitation on Model Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miyauchi, T.; Machimura, T.

    2014-12-01

    GCM is generally used to produce input weather data for the simulation of carbon and water cycle by ecosystem process based models under climate change however its temporal resolution is sometimes incompatible to requirement. A weather generator (WG) is used for temporal downscaling of input weather data for models, where the effect of WG algorithms on reproducibility of ecosystem model outputs must be assessed. In this study simulated carbon and water cycle by Biome-BGC model using weather data measured and generated by CLIMGEN weather generator were compared. The measured weather data (daily precipitation, maximum, minimum air temperature) at a few sites for 30 years was collected from NNDC Online weather data. The generated weather data was produced by CLIMGEN parameterized using the measured weather data. NPP, heterotrophic respiration (HR), NEE and water outflow were simulated by Biome-BGC using measured and generated weather data. In the case of deciduous broad leaf forest in Lushi, Henan Province, China, 30 years average monthly NPP by WG was 10% larger than that by measured weather in the growing season. HR by WG was larger than that by measured weather in all months by 15% in average. NEE by WG was more negative in winter and was close to that by measured weather in summer. These differences in carbon cycle were because the soil water content by WG was larger than that by measured weather. The difference between monthly water outflow by WG and by measured weather was large and variable, and annual outflow by WG was 50% of that by measured weather. The inconsistency in carbon and water cycle by WG and measured weather was suggested be affected by the difference in temporal concentration of precipitation, which was assessed.

  9. Weatherization is a Natural Choice for Montana: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Montana demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  10. The Spirit of North Dakota: Alive in Weatherization; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    North Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  11. A Tribute to Weatherization Solutions in South Dakota: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    South Dakota demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  12. Weatherization Savings Takes Root in New Mexico: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    New Mexico demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  13. Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  14. Weatherization in Arkansas: A Gem of a Program: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Arkansas demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  15. New York Signals Weatherization Savings: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    New York demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  16. Weatherization is a Hit in Michigan: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Michigan demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  17. Weatherization Builds on Delaware's Innovative Past: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Delaware demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  18. Taking Weatherization to New Heights in Colorado: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Colorado demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  19. Weatherization: Wyoming's Hidden Resource; Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    Wyoming demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes

  20. Weatherization Makes Headlines in Connecticut: Weatherization Assistance Close-Up Fact Sheet

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D& R International

    2001-10-10

    Connecticut demonstrates its commitment to technology and efficiency through the Weatherization Program. Weatherization uses advanced technologies and techniques to reduce energy costs for low-income families by increasing the energy efficiency of their homes.