Spatio-temporal trends of rainfall across Indian river basins

Science.gov (United States)

Bisht, Deepak Singh; Chatterjee, Chandranath; Raghuwanshi, Narendra Singh; Sridhar, Venkataramana

2018-04-01

Daily gridded high-resolution rainfall data of India Meteorological Department at 0.25° spatial resolution (1901-2015) was analyzed to detect the trend in seasonal, annual, and maximum cumulative rainfall for 1, 2, 3, and 5 days. The present study was carried out for 85 river basins of India during 1901-2015 and pre- and post-urbanization era, i.e., 1901-1970 and 1971-2015, respectively. Mann-Kendall ( α = 0.05) and Theil-Sen's tests were employed for detecting the trend and percentage of change over the period of time, respectively. Daily extreme rainfall events, above 95 and 99 percentile threshold, were also analyzed to detect any trend in their magnitude and number of occurrences. The upward trend was found for the majority of the sub-basins for 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-day maximum cumulative rainfall during the post-urbanization era. The magnitude of extreme threshold events is also found to be increasing in the majority of the river basins during the post-urbanization era. A 30-year moving window analysis further revealed a widespread upward trend in a number of extreme threshold rainfall events possibly due to urbanization and climatic factors. Overall trends studied against intra-basin trend across Ganga basin reveal the mixed pattern of trends due to inherent spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, therefore, highlighting the importance of scale for such studies.

Dry-out heat fluxes of falling film and low-mass flux upward-flow in heated tubes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koizumi, Yasuo; Ueda, Tatsuhiro; Matsuo, Teruyuki; Miyota, Yukio

1998-01-01

Dry-out heat fluxes were investigated experimentally for a film flow falling down on the inner surface of vertical heated-tubes and for a low mass flux forced-upward flow in the tubes using R 113. This work followed the study on those for a two-phase natural circulation system. For the falling film boiling, flow state observation tests were also performed, where dry-patches appearing and disappearing repeatedly were observed near the exit end of the heated section at the dry-out heat flux conditions. Relation between the dry-out heat flux and the liquid film flow rate is analyzed. The dry-out heat fluxes of the low mass flux upflow are expressed well by the correlation proposed in the previous work. The relation for the falling film boiling shows a similar trend to that for the upflow boiling, however, the dry-out heat fluxes of the falling film are much lower, approximately one third, than those of the upward flow. (author)

TRENDS IN VARIABILITY OF WATER FLOW OF TELEAJEN RIVER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. JIPA

2012-03-01

Full Text Available TRENDS IN VARIABILITY OF WATER FLOW OF TELEAJEN RIVER. In the context of climate change at global and regional scale, this study intends to identify the trends in variability of the annual and monthly flow of Teleajen river. The study is based on processing the series of mean, maximum and minimum flows at Cheia and Moara Domnească hydrometric stations (these data were taken from the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology. The period of analysis is 1966-1998, statistical methods beeing mostly used, among which the Mann – Kendall test, that identifies the liniar trend and its statistic significance, comes into focus. The trends in the variability of water annual and monthly flows are highlighted. The results obtained show downward trends for the mean and maximum annual flows, and for the minimum water discharge, a downward trend for Cheia station and an upward trend for Moara Domnească station. Knowing the trends in the variability of the rivers’ flow is important empirically in view of taking adequate administration measures of the water resources and managment measures for the risks lead by extreme hidrologic events (floods, low-water, according to the possible identified changes.

Population Trends and the Status of Population Policy in Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Rogge, John R.

1982-01-01

The major trend towards worldwide easing of the birthrate does not include the current population patterns in Africa. The population policies of African nations range along a continuum from totally pronatal to strongly antinatal. However, even antinatal policies have had little effect on the overall spiralling upward population trend. (JA)

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Kürbis, K.; Mudelsee, M.; Tetzlaff, G.; Brázdil, R.

2009-09-01

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague-Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.

Analysis of Trends in Housing Construction Cost in Nigeria from ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The upward trends in housing construction costs have been a major issue in the economy as a whole. The research uses typical 3 - bedroom bungalow in Lagos to analyze the trends in housing construction cost from 2000 to 2009. The basic question for this research is whether the inflation in housing construction costs ...

Bank Consolidation, Internationalization, and Conglomeration; Trends and Implications for Financial Risk

OpenAIRE

Gianni De Nicolo; Mary G Zephirin; Philip F. Bartholomew; Jahanara Zaman

2003-01-01

This paper documents global trends in bank activity, consolidation, internationalization, and financial firm conglomeration, and explores the extent to which financial firm risk and systemic risk potential in banking are related to consolidation and conglomeration. We find that while there is a substantial upward trend in conglomeration globally, consolidation and internationalization exhibit uneven patterns across world regions. Trends in consolidation and conglomeration indicate increased r...

A Diary Study of Self-Compassion, Upward Social Comparisons, and Body Image-Related Outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Thøgersen-Ntoumani, Cecilie; Dodos, Louisa; Chatzisarantis, Nikos; Ntoumanis, Nikos

2017-07-01

Self-compassion may protect individuals experiencing poor body image and associated maladaptive outcomes. The purpose of the study was to examine within-person associations (whilst controlling for between-person differences) between appearance-related self-compassion, appearance-related threats (operationalised as upward appearance comparisons), and body image-related variables, namely, social physique anxiety, drive for thinness, and body dissatisfaction. A diary methodology was used whereby young women (n = 126; M age = 21.26) responded to brief online surveys three times per day (11am, 3pm, and 7pm) every second day for one week (i.e. a total of 12 measurement points). Results of mixed linear modeling revealed that both state appearance-related upward comparisons and self-compassion independently predicted all three outcomes in a positive and negative fashion, respectively. No significant interaction effects between state appearance-related upward comparisons and self-compassion were found. The results suggested that appearance-based self-compassion was important, not just when there was a potential threat to body image via upward appearance comparisons. The findings highlight the importance of fostering self-compassion on a daily level. © 2017 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Is a shift from research on individual medical error to research on health information technology underway? A 40-year analysis of publication trends in medical journals.

Science.gov (United States)

Erlewein, Daniel; Bruni, Tommaso; Gadebusch Bondio, Mariacarla

2018-06-07

In 1983, McIntyre and Popper underscored the need for more openness in dealing with errors in medicine. Since then, much has been written on individual medical errors. Furthermore, at the beginning of the 21st century, researchers and medical practitioners increasingly approached individual medical errors through health information technology. Hence, the question arises whether the attention of biomedical researchers shifted from individual medical errors to health information technology. We ran a study to determine publication trends concerning individual medical errors and health information technology in medical journals over the last 40 years. We used the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) taxonomy in the database MEDLINE. Each year, we analyzed the percentage of relevant publications to the total number of publications in MEDLINE. The trends identified were tested for statistical significance. Our analysis showed that the percentage of publications dealing with individual medical errors increased from 1976 until the beginning of the 21st century but began to drop in 2003. Both the upward and the downward trends were statistically significant (P information technology doubled between 2003 and 2015. The upward trend was statistically significant (P information technology in the USA and the UK. © 2018 Chinese Cochrane Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim

2014-08-01

Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.

Human disturbance and upward expansion of plants in a warming climate

Science.gov (United States)

Dainese, Matteo; Aikio, Sami; Hulme, Philip E.; Bertolli, Alessio; Prosser, Filippo; Marini, Lorenzo

2017-08-01

Climate change is expected to trigger an upward expansion of plants in mountain regions and, although there is strong evidence that many native species have already shifted their distributions to higher elevations, little is known regarding how fast non-native species might respond to climate change. By analysing 131,394 occurrence records of 1,334 plant species collected over 20 years in the European Alps, we found that non-natives are spreading upwards approximately twice as fast as natives. Whereas the spread of natives was enhanced by traits favouring longer dispersal distances, this was not the case for non-natives. This was due to the non-native species pool already being strongly biased towards species that had traits facilitating spread. A large proportion of native and non-native species seemed to be able to spread upwards faster than the current velocity of climate change. In particular, long-distance dispersal events and proximity to roads proved to be key drivers for the observed rapid spread. Our findings highlight that invasions by non-native species into native alpine communities are a potentially significant additional pressure on these vulnerable ecosystems that are already likely to suffer dramatic vegetation changes with ongoing warming and increasing human activity in mountain regions.

Utility Assessment of Specificity in Upward Feedback Instruments for Leadership Development

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Wardak, Theresa

2003-01-01

...) and the other is the recently developed, non-proprietary Upward Feedback Instrument (2002). The Upward Feedback Instrument was designed to measure leadership behaviors at a more specific level...

Trends in Hospitalization and Mortality Rates Due to Acute Cardiovascular Disease in Castile and León, 2001 to 2015.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Messa, Juan B; Andrés-de Llano, Jesús M; López-Fernández, Laura; García-Cruces, Jesús; García-Crespo, Julio; Prieto González, Miryam

2018-02-01

To analyze hospitalization and mortality rates due to acute cardiovascular disease (ACVD). We conducted a cross-sectional study of the hospital discharge database of Castile and León from 2001 to 2015, selecting patients with a principal discharge diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), unstable angina, heart failure, or acute ischemic stroke (AIS). Trends in the rates of hospitalization/100 000 inhabitants/y and hospital mortality/1000 hospitalizations/y, overall and by sex, were studied by joinpoint regression analysis. A total of 239 586 ACVD cases (AMI 55 004; unstable angina 15 406; heart failure 111 647; AIS 57 529) were studied. The following statistically significant trends were observed: hospitalization: ACVD, upward from 2001 to 2007 (5.14; 95%CI, 3.5-6.8; P < .005), downward from 2011 to 2015 (3.7; 95%CI, 1.0-6.4; P < .05); unstable angina, downward from 2001 to 2010 (-12.73; 95%CI, -14.8 to -10.6; P < .05); AMI, upward from 2001 to 2003 (15.6; 95%CI, 3.8-28.9; P < .05), downward from 2003 to 2015 (-1.20; 95%CI, -1.8 to -0.6; P < .05); heart failure, upward from 2001 to 2007 (10.70; 95%CI, 8.7-12.8; P < .05), upward from 2007 to 2015 (1.10; 95%CI, 0.1-2.1; P < .05); AIS, upward from 2001 to 2007 (4.44; 95%CI, 2.9-6.0; P < .05). Mortality rates: downward from 2001 to 2015 in ACVD (-1.16; 95%CI, -2.1 to -0.2; P < .05), AMI (-3.37, 95%CI, -4.4 to -2, 3, P < .05), heart failure (-1.25; 95%CI, -2.3 to -0.1; P < .05) and AIS (-1.78; 95%CI, -2.9 to -0.6; P < .05); unstable angina, upward from 2001 to 2007 (24.73; 95%CI, 14.2-36.2; P < .05). The ACVD analyzed showed a rising trend in hospitalization rates from 2001 to 2015, which was especially marked for heart failure, and a decreasing trend in hospital mortality rates, which were similar in men and women. These data point to a stabilization and a decline in hospital mortality, attributable to established prevention measures. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by

34 CFR 645.1 - What is the Upward Bound Program?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... participants the skills and motivation necessary to complete a program of secondary education and to enter and... the following three types of projects: (1) Regular Upward Bound projects. (2) Upward Bound Math and... Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF POSTSECONDARY...

Two upward lightning at the Eagle Nest tower

OpenAIRE

Montañá Puig, Juan; Van der Velde, Oscar Arnoud; Romero Durán, David; March Nomen, Víctor; Solà de Las Fuentes, Gloria; Pineda Ruegg, Nicolau; Soula, Serge; Hermoso Alameda, Blas

2012-01-01

A new instrument composed by a high speed camera, two high energy detectors, a E-field antenna and a VHF antenna were installed at the Eagle Nest tower (northeast of Spain) during summer 2011. With this equipment several lightning flashes to the tower and its vicinity have been observed. This paper presents two examples: the first was an upward negative leader triggered by a close c1oud-to-ground flash and the second was an upward negative flash not associated with previous lightning activity...

Simulation of upward flux from shallow water-table using UPFLOW model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. H. Ali

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The upward movement of water by capillary rise from shallow water-table to the root zone is an important incoming flux. For determining exact amount of irrigation requirement, estimation of capillary flux or upward flux is essential. Simulation model can provide a reliable estimate of upward flux under variable soil and climatic conditions. In this study, the performance of model UPFLOW to estimate upward flux was evaluated. Evaluation of model performance was performed with both graphical display and statistical criteria. In distribution of simulated capillary rise values against observed field data, maximum data points lie around the 1:1 line, which means that the model output is reliable and reasonable. The coefficient of determination between observed and simulated values was 0.806 (r = 0.93, which indicates a good inter-relation between observed and simulated values. The relative error, model efficiency, and index of agreement were found as 27.91%, 85.93% and 0.96, respectively. Considering the graphical display of observed and simulated upward flux and statistical indicators, it can be concluded that the overall performance of the UPFLOW model in simulating actual upward flux from a crop field under variable water-table condition is satisfactory. Thus, the model can be used to estimate capillary rise from shallow water-table for proper estimation of irrigation requirement, which would save valuable water from over-irrigation.

Spatial and Temporal Streamflow Trends in Northern Taiwan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen-Feng Yeh

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Streamflow is an important factor in the study of water resource management, floods, and droughts. Dramatic climate change has created extreme rainfall distributions, making the study of streamflow trends and variability even more crucial. In this study, the long-term streamflow data and trends recorded at gauging stations in Northern Taiwan are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The data used for trend analysis are the average annual streamflow, the average seasonal streamflow, and the high and low flows. The slope trend is calculated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Finally, change point analysis is conducted using the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test and the cumulative deviation test to gain further information about the change points and to understand the changes in streamflow before and after the change points. The average annual streamflow of the 12 gauging stations in the study area is analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results show that of the 12 gauging stations, only the Ximen Bridge Station in the Lanyang River basin show a significant downward streamflow trend. Results of the monthly and seasonal average streamflow analysis show that in the spring, 72.2% of the gauging stations showed upward streamflow trends, most of which were located in the Tamsui River and the Touqian River basins. The high and low flow data analysis shows that the Ximen Bridge Station was the only gauging station to feature a significant downward streamflow trend for both high and low flows. This distribution pattern provides valuable information for regional hydrological studies and water management.

Technique of the biomechanical analysis of execution of upward jump piked

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nataliya Batieieva

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: the biomechanical analysis of execution of upward jump piked. Material & Methods: the following methods of the research were used: theoretical analysis and synthesis of data of special scientific and methodical literature; photographing, video filming, biomechanical computer analysis, pedagogical observation. Students (n=8 of the chair of national choreography of the department of choreographic art of Kiev national university of culture and art took part in carrying out the biomechanical analysis of execution of upward jump piked. Results: the biomechanical analysis of execution of upward jump piked is carried out, the kinematic characteristics (way, speed, acceleration, effort of the general center of weight (GCW and center of weight (CW of biolinks of body of the executor are received (feet, shins, hips, shoulder, forearm, hands. Biokinematic models (phases are constructed. Power characteristics are defined – mechanical work and kinetic energy of links of legs and hands at execution of upward jump piked. Conclusions: it is established that the technique of execution of upward jump piked considerably influences the level of technical training of the qualified sportsmen in gymnastics (sports, in aerobic gymnastics (aerobics, diving and dancing sports.

Changes in Remotely Sensed Vegetation Growth Trend in the Heihe Basin of Arid Northwestern China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenchao Sun

Full Text Available The Heihe River Basin (HRB is the second largest inland river basin in China, characterized by high diversity in geomorphology and irrigated agriculture in middle reaches. To improve the knowledge about the relationship between biotic and hydrological processes, this study used Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI data (1982-2006 to analyze spatiotemporal variations in vegetation growth by using the Mann-Kendall test together with Sen's slope estimator. The results indicate that 10.1% and 1.6% of basin area exhibit statistically significant (p < 0.05 upward and downward trends, and maximum magnitude is 0.066/10a and 0.026/10a, respectively. More specifically, an increasing trend was observed in the Qilian Mountains and Hexi Corridor and a decreasing trend detected in the transitional region between them. Increases in precipitation and temperature may be one possible reason for the changes of vegetation growth in the Qilian Mountains. And decreasing trend in transitional region may be driven by the changes in precipitation. Increases of irrigation contribute to the upward trend of NDVI for cropland in the Hexi Corridor, reflecting that agricultural development becomes more intensive. Our study demonstrates the complexity of the response of vegetation growth in the HRB to climate change and anthropogenic activities and correspondingly adopting mechanistic ecological models capable of describing both factors is favorable for reasonable predictions of future vegetation growth. It is also indicated that improving irrigation water use efficiency is one practical strategy to balance water demand between human and natural ecosystems in the HRB.

Upwards Intensifiers in the English, German and Croatian Language

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anita Pavić Pintarić

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates the upwards intensifiers (adverbs of intensifying in the English, German and Croatian language. Intensity as an important human cognitive category, and language expressivity is differently treated in grammars and dictionaries of all three languages, especially with respect to different degrees of intensity. In this paper we argue that it is possible to model a typology of upwards adverb intensifiers in the three languages, according to their morphosyntactic and semantic aspects. When it comes to intensifiers, it is necessary to describe which collocates are modified by intensifiers and which semantic fields the collocates belong to. The results of the corpus analysis based on Harry Potter novels show that all the three languages express the category of the upwards intensity in the same way: the number of intensifiers is similar, the collocates mostly belong to the same semantic fields and word classes, they have similar syntactic functions.

Trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow characteristics at 227 streamgages in the Missouri River watershed, water years 1960-2011

Science.gov (United States)

Norton, Parker A.; Anderson, Mark T.; Stamm, John F.

2014-01-01

The Missouri River and its tributaries are an important resource that serve multiple uses including agriculture, energy, recreation, and municipal water supply. Understanding historical streamflow characteristics provides relevant guidance to adaptive management of these water resources. Streamflow records in the Missouri River watershed were examined for trends in time series of annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A total of 227 streamgages having continuous observational records for water years 1960–2011 were examined. Kendall’s tau nonparametric test was used to determine statistical significance of trends in annual, seasonal, and monthly streamflow. A trend was considered statistically significant for a probability value less than or equal to 0.10 that the Kendall’s tau value equals zero. Significant trends in annual streamflow were indicated for 101 out of a total of 227 streamgages. The Missouri River watershed was divided into six watershed regions and trends within regions were examined. The western and the southern parts of the Missouri River watershed had downward trends in annual streamflow (56 streamgages), whereas the eastern part of the watershed had upward trends in streamflow (45 streamgages). Seasonal and monthly streamflow trends reflected prevailing annual streamflow trends within each watershed region.

Cover Art: River's Edge: Downward, Outward, Upward

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonee Kulman Brigham

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Artist's Statement for the cover art of IJPS volume 4, issue 3: River's Edge: Downward, Outward, Upward, 2015. Mixed Media: photograph, inkjet printed on presentation matte of colored pencil over photograph.

Examining National Trends in Educational Placements for Students with Significant Disabilities

Science.gov (United States)

Morningstar, Mary E.; Kurth, Jennifer A.; Johnson, Paul E.

2017-01-01

Using the least restrictive environments (LRE) data from annual "Reports to Congress," this study examined national trends in placement between 2000 and 2014 for school-aged students considered to have significant disabilities from among the categories of autism (ASD), intellectual disability (ID), multiple disabilities (MD), and…

Effects of intergroup upward comparison, trait self-esteem, and identity shift on state self-esteem and affect in upward comparison with in-group members

OpenAIRE

Isobe, Chikae; Ura, Mitsuhiro

2006-01-01

The present study investigated factors that protect people low in trait self-esteem (Low-SEs), who may be less skilled at constructing information in self-enhancing manners, from threats after interpersonal upward comparison with in-group members. We hypothesized that even Low-SEs can maintain their state self-esteem under intergroup upward comparison. Furthermore, this study explored the possibility that individuals used identity-shift, a strategy to maintain their personal identity, even in...

Temporal Trends of Hexabromocyclododecane, Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers and Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Ringed Seals from East Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vorkamp, Katrin; Riget, Frank Farsø; Bossi, Rossana

2011-01-01

also was found for adult seals with a time trend starting in 1994. ΣPCB decreased significantly in juvenile seals, again due to the 1986 value, while no trend was found for the adult animals. This indicates stagnating PCB concentrations at a relatively high level, in some cases possibly exceeding......Concentrations of hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) were determined in a combination of archived and fresh blubber samples of juvenile ringed seals from East Greenland collected between 1986 and 2008. R-HBCD was the only diastereoisomer consistently above levels of quantification and showed...... on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been extended with new data for 2006 and 2008. ΣPBDE in juvenile seals was the only parameter with a slight upward trend, however, dependent on the low 1986 concentration. Removing this data point resulted in a downward trend, which...

Preparation of TiC/Ni3Al Composites by Upward Melt Infiltration

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2000-01-01

TiC/Ni3Al composites have been prepared using upward infiltration method. The densificstion was performed by both Ni3Al melt filling and TiC sintering during the infiltration. The dissolution of TiC in liquid Ni3Al has been evidenced by finding Ni3(Al,Ti)C after fast cooling in the TiC/Ni3Al composites. The dissolution may be responsible for the infiltration and sintering. Compared with downward infiltration, the upward infiltration brought about higher strength and fracture toughness and shorter infiltration time. TiC/20 vol. pct Ni3Al composite processed by upward infiltration had a flexural strength of 1476 Mpa with a statistic Weibull modulus of 20.2 and a fracture toughness of 20.4 Mpa(m). Better mechanical properties may be attributed to melt unidirectional movement in upward infiltration.

A case study of lightning attachment to flat ground showing multiple unconnected upward leaders

Science.gov (United States)

Cummins, Kenneth L.; Krider, E. Philip; Olbinski, Mike; Holle, Ronald L.

2018-04-01

On 10 July 2015, a cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash that produced two ground terminations was photographed from inside the safety of a truck in southern New Mexico. An analysis of archived NLDN data verified that this was a two-stroke flash, and a close-up view of the first stroke shows that it also initiated at least 12 unconnected, upward leaders (or "streamers") near the ground termination. No unconnected upward leaders were seen near the second ground attachment. After combining an analysis of the photograph with information provided by the NLDN, we infer that the first stroke was of negative (normal) polarity, had modest peak current, and struck about 460 m (± 24%) from the camera. Attachment occurred when an upward-propagating positive leader reached an inferred height of about 21 m above local ground. The second stroke struck ground about 740 m from the camera, and the height of its attachment leader is estimated to be 15 m. The estimated lengths of the unconnected upward leaders in the two-dimensional (2-D) plane of the first stroke range from 2 to 8 m, and all appear to be located within 15 m (2-D) of the main ground termination, with 24% uncertainty. Many of the unconnected upward leaders (inferred to be positive) exhibit multiple upward branches, and most of those branches have upward-directed forks or splits at their ends. This is the first report showing such extensive branching for positive upward leaders in natural lightning strikes to ground. None of the upward leaders can be seen to emanate from the tops of tall, isolated, or pointed objects on the ground, but they likely begin on small plants and rocks, or flat ground. In terms of lightning safety, this photo demonstrates that numerous upward leaders can be produced near a lightning strike point and have the potential to damage or cause injury at more than one specific point on the ground.

Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiang Rui

2016-01-01

Full Text Available On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business administration talents. With the gradually increasing demand for the business administration talents, various colleges and universities also set up the business administration major to train a large number of administration talents, thus leading to an upward trend for the academic focus on business administration.

Gender Trends in Radiology Authorship: A 35-Year Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Piper, Crystal L; Scheel, John R; Lee, Christoph I; Forman, Howard P

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to describe trends over time in female authorship in the radiology literature and to investigate the tendency of female first authors to publish with female senior authors. Data on the gender of academic physician authors based in the United States for all major articles published in three general radiology journals--Radiology, AJR, and Academic Radiology--were collected and analyzed for the years 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and 2013. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify significant trends over time, and a chi-square test of independence was performed to determine significant relations between the genders of first and senior authors. The gender of 4182 of 4217 (99.17%) authors with MD degrees was determined. The proportion of original research articles published by women as first authors increased from 8.33% in 1978 to 32.35% in 2013 (p < 0.001). The proportion of original research articles with women as senior authors increased from 6.75% in 1978 to 21.90% in 2013 (p < 0.001). Female first and senior authorship increased significantly over time (first author, p < 0.001; senior author, p < 0.001). There was a statistically significant relation between the genders of first and senior authors of original research articles and guest editorials (p < 0.001). Over 35 years, there was a statistically significant upward linear trend of female physician participation in authorship of academic radiology literature. Female first authors were more likely to publish with female senior authors.

Trends on the international coal markets; Trends auf den internationalen Steinkohlenmaerkten

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wedig, Martin; Luebke, Roland [Gesamtverband Steinkohle e.V., Herne (Germany)

2011-01-15

Following the worldwide financial and economic crisis the international coal markets are again well on the road to recovery and are currently exhibiting clear growth and boom trends, particularly in the Asian consumption regions. In most OECD countries, however, the recovery process to achieve the status quo at the pre-crisis level is still far from concluded, so that the certain catching-up effect can still be anticipated. Because of the high Asian demand - meanwhile not only in PR China, but also in India - the upward trend in the raw material sector as a whole is intact and the global raw material supercycle is continuing on an increasingly wider scale. The prices of raw materials have risen sharply. This applies essentially to the energy raw materials (e.g. oil and coal), but also to the many metallic raw materials. (orig.)

Upward Pricing Pressure in Two-Sided Markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Affeldt, P.; Filistrucchi, L.; Klein, T.J.

2012-01-01

Abstract: Pricing pressure indices have recently been proposed as alternative screening devices for horizontal mergers involving differentiated products. We extend the concept of Upward Pricing Pressure (UPP) proposed by Farrell and Shapiro (2010) to two-sided markets. Examples of such markets are

Epidemiological trends of deep venous thrombosis in HIV-infected subjects (1997-2013): A nationwide population-based study in Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Alvaro-Meca, Alejandro; Ryan, Pablo; Martínez-Larrull, Esther; Micheloud, Dariela; Berenguer, Juan; Resino, Salvador

2018-02-01

Chronic infections may be a triggering factor as well as a risk factor of deep venous thrombosis (DVT). The purpose of this study was to analyze the epidemiological trends of hospital admissions related to DVT in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients during the combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) era, in relation to hepatitis C virus (HCV) serological status. We performed a retrospective study using the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set. We selected HIV-infected subjects over 15years old with a hospital admission and DVT diagnosis (ICD-9-CM codes: 453.4x and 453.8x) between 1997 and 2013. Patients were classified according to HCV serology. We estimated the incidence (events per 100,000 patient-years) in four calendar periods (1997-1999, 2000-2003, 2004-2007, and 2008-2013). Overall, the incidence of DVT-related hospitalizations had a significant upward trend in all HIV-infected patients (PHIV-monoinfected patients than in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients during the entire follow-up (PHIV-monoinfected patients (P=0.002) and a significant upward trend in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients (PHIV-monoinfected patients significantly decreased from 1997-1999 to 2008-2013 [142.7 vs. 103.1 (P=0.006)], whereas in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients, the incidence increased from 8.4 (1997-1999) to 70.7 (2008-2013) (PHIV-infected patients, with increasing incidence during the first 17years after the introduction of cART, particularly in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Upward translocation of 14C-amino compounds in xylem and phloem of citrus trees (citrus unshiu marc.)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, Tadashi; Yamagata, Makoto; Tsukahara, Sadao

1985-01-01

Upward and lateral movements of 14 C-amino compounds in intact trees and excised shoots, and upward translocation of major amino compounds in intact shoots were examined in the early stage of new shoot development. The results were summarized as follows. 1. Uniformly 14 C-labelled arginine, asparagine, aspartic acid and proline were steadily taken up by roots of intact trees, translocated to old leaves and new shoots, and appeared in the fed compound and its metabolized products in these organs. 2. 14 C-arginine, asparagine and proline were translocated upward not only via the xylem but also via the phloem. Lateral movements, from the xylem to the pholoem and from the phloem to the xylem, also occurred. These compounds showed different patterns in their movements. 14 C-arginine and its metabolic products tended to accumulate in the xylem and translocate upward in the xylem. This was in contrast to 14 C-proline and its metabolic products, which tended to accumulate in the phloem and translocate upward in the phloem. These findings were supported by the results obtained in intact shoots. 3. The 14 C-amino compounds were metabolized to soluble and insoluble compounds during the translocation and in the new shoots. However, they differed significantly in the extent of metabolic conversion during translocation; proline was hardly metabolized, arginine and asparagine were moderately metabolized, and aspartic acid was almost completely metabolized. (author)

Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability

Science.gov (United States)

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Warren E. Heilman; Xindi. Bian

2018-01-01

Many studies have shown the importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to observed upward trends in the occurrences of temperature extremes over the U.S. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of internal variability in the climate system to these observed trends. Here we use daily maximum temperature time series from the...

Cancer in adolescents: Incidences and trends during 1995-2009 in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hung, Giun-Yi; Chen, Chao-Chun; Horng, Jiun-Lin; Lin, Li-Yih

2016-03-01

This study aimed to describe cancer incidence rates and trends specifically for adolescents aged 15-19 years during 1995-2009 in Taiwan. The incidence counts and census data were obtained from the population-based Taiwan Cancer Registry. During the 15-year study period, 4122 adolescents were diagnosed with cancer. The overall incidence rate was 155.2 per million person-years. Other epithelial tumors were the most frequently diagnosed cancer group (23.7%), followed by leukemias (18.0%) and lymphomas (13.9%). When compared to rates in Western countries, a significantly low rate of lymphomas was found. Moreover, rates of the subtypes of melanomas and nasopharyngeal carcinomas being 1/10- and 4-times rates in Western countries were the most striking variations. During 1995-2009, the overall rate of adolescent cancer did not significantly change. However, the most significant upward and declining trends in incidence rates were found for male germ cell neoplasms (annual percent change, APC, 6.4%) and hepatic tumors (APC, -11.1%), respectively. Further investigation and enhancement of the public discourse of possible lifestyle and environmental risk factors associated with increasing trends of certain adolescent cancers should be carried out in Taiwan. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Upward pricing pressure in two-sided markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Affeldt, P.; Filistrucchi, L.; Klein, T.J.

2013-01-01

Measuring upward pricing pressure (UPP) has recently been proposed by Farrell and Shapiro (2010) as an alternative screening device for horizontal mergers. We extend the concept of UPP to two-sided markets. Examples of such markets are the newspaper market, where the demand for advertising is

A Study of Upward Influence in Organizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Schilit, Warren K.; Locke, Edwin A.

1982-01-01

Researchers interviewed 83 subordinate employees and 70 supervisory employees to investigate the ways subordinates try to influence their supervisors. Supervisors and subordinates reported similar agents and methods of influence, causes of success, and outcomes of attempts at upward influence, but different causes of failure. (Author/RW)

Liquid velocity in upward and downward air-water flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun Xiaodong; Paranjape, Sidharth; Kim, Seungjin; Ozar, Basar; Ishii, Mamoru

2004-01-01

Local characteristics of the liquid phase in upward and downward air-water two-phase flows were experimentally investigated in a 50.8-mm inner-diameter round pipe. An integral laser Doppler anemometry (LDA) system was used to measure the axial liquid velocity and its fluctuations. No effect of the flow direction on the liquid velocity radial profile was observed in single-phase liquid benchmark experiments. Local multi-sensor conductivity probes were used to measure the radial profiles of the bubble velocity and the void fraction. The measurement results in the upward and downward two-phase flows are compared and discussed. The results in the downward flow demonstrated that the presence of the bubbles tended to flatten the liquid velocity radial profile, and the maximum liquid velocity could occur off the pipe centerline, in particular at relatively low flow rates. However, the maximum liquid velocity always occurred at the pipe center in the upward flow. Also, noticeable turbulence enhancement due to the bubbles in the two-phase flows was observed in the current experimental flow conditions. Furthermore, the distribution parameter and the void-weighted area-averaged drift velocity were obtained based on the definitions

Upward lightning attachment analysis on wind turbines and correlated current parameters

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vogel, Stephan; Ishii, M.; Saito, M.

2017-01-01

This work provides insight in the attachment characteristics of upward initiated lightning discharges to wind turbines and their possible consequences for the lightning protection of wind turbine blades. All discharges were recorded at the Japanese coast of the Sea of Japan which is known...... for intense upward lightning activity. 172 video recordings of lightning discharges on rotating wind turbines are analysed and attachment angle, detachment angle, and the resulting angular displacement were determined. A classification between self-initiated and other-triggered upward lightning events...... is performed by means of video analysis. The results reveal that the majority of discharges are initiated on vertical blades; however, also attachments to horizontal blades are reported. Horizontal attachment (or a slightly inclined blade state) is often related with a triggered lightning event prior...

No upward trend in normalised windstorm losses in Europe: 1970-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Barredo, J. I.

2010-01-01

On 18 January 2007, windstorm Kyrill battered Europe with hurricane-force winds killing 47 people and causing 10 billion US in damage. Kyrill poses several questions: is Kyrill an isolated or exceptional case? Have there been events costing as much in the past? This paper attempts to put Kyrill into an historical context by examining large historical windstorm event losses in Europe for the period 1970-2008 across 29 European countries. It asks the question what economic losses would these historical events cause if they were to recur under 2008 societal conditions? Loss data were sourced from reinsurance firms and augmented with historical reports, peer-reviewed articles and other ancillary sources. Following the same conceptual approach outlined in previous studies, the data were then adjusted for changes in population, wealth, and inflation at the country level and for inter-country price differences using purchasing power parity. The analyses reveal no trend in the normalised windstorm losses and confirm increasing disaster losses are driven by societal factors and increasing exposure.

Atmospheric neutrino oscillations from upward throughgoing muon multiple scattering in MACRO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ambrosio, M.; Antolini, R.; Bakari, D.; Baldini, A.; Barbarino, G.C.; Barish, B.C.; Battistoni, G.; Becherini, Y.; Bellotti, R.; Bemporad, C.; Bernardini, P.; Bilokon, H.; Bloise, C.; Bower, C.; Brigida, M.; Bussino, S.; Cafagna, F.; Calicchio, M.; Campana, D.; Carboni, M.; Caruso, R.; Cecchini, S.; Cei, F.; Chiarella, V.; Chiarusi, T.; Choudhary, B.C.; Coutu, S.; Cozzi, M.; De Cataldo, G.; Dekhissi, H.; De Marzo, C.; De Mitri, I.; Derkaoui, J.; De Vincenzi, M.; Di Credico, A.; Favuzzi, C.; Forti, C.; Fusco, P.; Giacomelli, G.; Giannini, G.; Giglietto, N.; Giorgini, M.; Grassi, M.; Grillo, A.; Gustavino, C.; Habig, A.; Hanson, K.; Heinz, R.; Iarocci, E.; Katsavounidis, E.; Katsavounidis, I.; Kearns, E.; Kim, H.; Kumar, A.; Kyriazopoulou, S.; Lamanna, E.; Lane, C.; Levin, D.S.; Lipari, P.; Longo, M.J.; Loparco, F.; Maaroufi, F.; Mancarella, G.; Mandrioli, G.; Manzoor, S.; Margiotta, A.; Marini, A.; Martello, D.; Marzari-Chiesa, A.; Mazziotta, M.N.; Michael, D.G.; Mikheyev, S.; Monacelli, P.; Montaruli, T.; Monteno, M.; Mufson, S.; Musser, J.; Nicolo, D.; Nolty, R.; Orth, C.; Osteria, G.; Palamara, O.; Patera, V.; Patrizii, L.; Pazzi, R.; Peck, C.W.; Perrone, L.; Petrera, S.; Popa, V.; Raino, A.; Reynoldson, J.; Ronga, F.; Rrhioua, A.; Satriano, C.; Scapparone, E.; Scholberg, K.; Sciubba, A.; Serra, P.; Sioli, M.; Sirri, G.; Sitta, M.; Spinelli, P.; Spinetti, M.; Spurio, M.; Steinberg, R.; Stone, J.L.; Sulak, L.R.; Surdo, A.; Tarle, G.; Togo, V.; Vakili, M.; Walter, C.W.; Webb, R

2003-07-24

The energy of atmospheric neutrinos detected by MACRO was estimated using multiple Coulomb scattering of upward throughgoing muons. This analysis allows a test of atmospheric neutrino oscillations, relying on the distortion of the muon energy distribution. These results have been combined with those coming from the upward throughgoing muon angular distribution only. Both analyses are independent of the neutrino flux normalization and provide strong evidence, above the 4{sigma} level, in favour of neutrino oscillations.

Global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed from the ERA-20CM

Science.gov (United States)

Aarnes, Ole Johan; Breivik, Øyvind

2016-04-01

The ERA-20CM is one of the latest additions to the ERA-series produced at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). This 10 member ensemble is generated with a version of the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), a coupled atmosphere-wave model. The model integration is run as a AMIP (Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project) constrained by CMIP5 recommended radiative forcing and different realizations of sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-ice cover (SIC) prescribed by the HadISST2 (Met Office Hadley Center). While the ERA-20CM is unable to reproduce the actual synoptic conditions, it is designed to offer a realistic statistical representation of the past climate, spanning the period 1899-2010. In this study we investigate global trends in significant wave height and marine wind speed based on ERA-20CM, using monthly mean data, upper percentiles and monthly/annual maxima. The aim of the study is to assess the quality of the trends and how these estimates are affected by different SST and SIC. Global trends are compared against corresponding estimates obtained with ERA-Interim (1979-2009), but also crosschecked against ERA-20C - an ECMWF pilot reanalysis of the 20th-century, known to most trustworthy in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Over the period 1900-2009, the 10 member ensemble yields trends mainly within +/- 5% per century. However, significant trends of opposite signs are found locally. Certain areas, like the eastern equatorial Pacific, highly affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation, show stronger trends. In general, trends based on statistical quantities further into the tail of the distribution are found less reliable.

Look Up for Healing: Embodiment of the Heal Concept in Looking Upward.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N D Leitan

Full Text Available Conceptual processing may not be restricted to the mind. The heal concept has been metaphorically associated with an "up" bodily posture. Perceptual Symbol Systems (PSS theory suggests that this association is underpinned by bodily states which occur during learning and become instantiated as the concept. Thus the aim of this study was to examine whether processing related to the heal concept is promoted by priming the bodily state of looking upwards.We used a mixed 2x2 priming paradigm in which 58 participants were asked to evaluate words as either related to the heal concept or not after being primed to trigger the concept of looking up versus down (Direction--within subjects. A possible dose-response effect of priming was investigated via allocating participants to two 'strengths' of prime, observing an image of someone whose gaze was upward/downward (low strength and observing an image of someone whose gaze was upward/downward while physically tilting their head upwards or downwards in accord with the image (high strength (Strength--between subjects.Participants responded to words related to heal faster than words unrelated to heal across both "Strength" conditions. There was no evidence that priming was stronger in the high strength condition.The present study found that, consistent with a PSS view of cognition, the heal concept is embodied in looking upward, which has important implications for cognition, general health, health psychology, health promotion and therapy.

Trends in mouth cancer incidence in Mumbai, India (1995-2009): An age-period-cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Shridhar, Krithiga; Rajaraman, Preetha; Koyande, Shravani; Parikh, Purvish M; Chaturvedi, Pankaj; Dhillon, Preet K; Dikshit, Rajesh P

2016-06-01

Despite tobacco control and health promotion efforts, the incidence rates of mouth cancer are increasing across most regions in India. Analysing the influence of age, time period and birth cohort on these secular trends can point towards underlying factors and help identify high-risk populations for improved cancer control programmes. We evaluated secular changes in mouth cancer incidence among men and women aged 25-74 years in Mumbai between 1995 and 2009 by calculating age-specific and age-standardized incidence rates (ASR). We estimated the age-adjusted linear trend for annual percent change (EAPC) using the drift parameter, and conducted an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to quantify recent time trends and to evaluate the significance of birth cohort and calendar period effects. Over the 15-year period, age-standardized incidence rates of mouth cancer in men in Mumbai increased by 2.7% annually (95% CI:1.9 to 3.4), pMumbai cancer registry indicate a significant linear increase of mouth cancer incidence from 1995 to 2009 in men, which was driven by younger men aged 25-49 years, and a non-significant upward trend in similarly aged younger women. Health promotion efforts should more effectively target younger cohorts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Representing or defecting ? : the pursuit of individual upward mobility in low status groups

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bleeker, Dennis

2010-01-01

This dissertation investigated the conditions under which the individual upward mobility of mem-bers of low status groups is likely to succeed and when it is likely to meet resistance. In addition, it examines how upwardly mobile individuals can create such beneficial conditions. The results

The impact of North Atlantic wind and cyclone trends on European precipitation and significant wave height in the Atlantic.

Science.gov (United States)

Trigo, Ricardo M; Valente, Maria A; Trigo, Isabel F; Miranda, Pedro M A; Ramos, Alexandre M; Paredes, Daniel; García-Herrera, Ricardo

2008-12-01

An analysis of the frequency of cyclones and surface wind velocity for the Euro-Atlantic sector is performed by means of an objective methodology. Monthly and seasonal trends of cyclones and wind speed magnitude are computed and trends between 1960 and 2000 evaluated. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February, and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind magnitude trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low-pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends in the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (October-March), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s/year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for January-March are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of lat 50 degrees N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5 cm/year just north of Scotland). Trends in European precipitation are assessed using the Climatic Research Unit data set. The results of the assessment emphasize the link with the corresponding tendencies of cyclone frequencies. Finally, it is shown that these changes are associated, to a large extent, with the preferred phases of major large-scale atmospheric circulation modes, particularly with the North Atlantic Oscillation, the eastern Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

Physical mechanism and numerical simulation of the inception of the lightning upward leader

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Qingmin; Lu Xinchang; Shi Wei; Zhang Li; Zou Liang; Lou Jie

2012-01-01

The upward leader is a key physical process of the leader progression model of lightning shielding. The inception mechanism and criterion of the upward leader need further understanding and clarification. Based on leader discharge theory, this paper proposes the critical electric field intensity of the stable upward leader (CEFISUL) and characterizes it by the valve electric field intensity on the conductor surface, E L , which is the basis of a new inception criterion for the upward leader. Through numerical simulation under various physical conditions, we verified that E L is mainly related to the conductor radius, and data fitting yields the mathematical expression of E L . We further establish a computational model for lightning shielding performance of the transmission lines based on the proposed CEFISUL criterion, which reproduces the shielding failure rate of typical UHV transmission lines. The model-based calculation results agree well with the statistical data from on-site operations, which show the effectiveness and validity of the CEFISUL criterion.

An Analysis of Wine Consumption Trends and Food-Related Expenditures in Japan

OpenAIRE

Omura, Makiko; Sakurai, Yuka; Ebihara, Kensuke

2013-01-01

This paper attempts to understand the mechanism of an upward trend in wine consumption in Japan by analysing its trend and possible correlations with food-related consumptions. Through the panel and time-series analyses of wine consumption and food-item expenditures, and of wine consumption and food-service industry sales, we investigate whether wine consumption is correlated with food westernization in Japan and whether wine is gaining its steady place in daily life of Japanese. Although not...

Clinical Assessment of Scapula Motion: Scapula Upward Rotation and Relationship with Injury in Swimmers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jo Brown

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Abnormal scapulothoracic mechanics and scapulohumeral rhythm are implicated in shoulder pathologies, including glenohumeral impingement and rotator cuff tears. Upward scapula rotation, specifically asymmetry of scapula motion and associations of patterns through range with injury, was investigated in dominant and non-dominant limbs of nationally ranked junior and Paralympic swimmers during competition season. The static and throughout phases measures of upward scapula rotation were: Phase I (start position, 45°, Phase II (45° to 90°, Phase III (90° to 135° and Phase IV (135° to max. Injury was assessed with a validated questionnaire. Differences between side (dominant and non-dominant, group (junior and Paralympic, and phase were examined. Significant differences (P < 0.05 between groups were identified for dominant side at rest, 45° and 135°, and in phases II and IV (including range. Scapulohumeral rhythm was higher in the non-dominant limb of Paralympic swimmers but in the dominant limb of junior swimmers. Greatest differences in upward rotation between injured and non-injured swimmers were found in Phase 1: 43.6% (3.3° Paralympic; 73.1% (8° junior. Results suggest asymmetry of movement in both limbs, through all phases, and at single points in range, should be investigated for assessing injury and developing preventive strategies and rehabilitation protocols.

Sky glint correction in measurements of upward radiance above the sea surface

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerzy Olszewski

2000-06-01

Full Text Available An experiment has been performed to determine the upward water-leaving radiance by non-contact measurement of the total upward and downward radiance above the sea surface from a moving ship. The method for achieving this aim is described: the radiance meters are both tilted in such a way that the upward radiance meter can 'see' that part of the measured downward radiance which would be reflected if the water surface were smooth and which is not derived directly from solar glitter. Both meters are firmly fixed in a special frame, which ensures that the required orientation is the most probable one. Time records of the measured parameters are analysed. The results are presented in several forms: frequency (histogram analysis appears to be the most promising one.

Analysis of the atmospheric upward radiation in low latitude area

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Haiying; Wu, Zhensen; Lin, Leke; Lu, Changsheng

2016-10-01

Remote sensing using THz wave has irreplaceable advantage comparing to the microwave and the infrared waves, and study on the THz remote sensing become more and more popular in recent years. The major applications of the remote sensing in THz wavelengths are the retrieval of the atmospheric parameters and the microphysical information of the ice cloud. The remote sensing of the atmosphere is based on the radiation of THz wave along the earth-space path of which the most significant part is the upward radiation of the atmosphere. The upward radiation of the atmosphere in sunny day in the low latitude area is computed and analyzed in this paper. The absorption of THz wave by the atmosphere is calculated using the formulations illustrated in the Recommendation ITU-R P.676 to save machine hour, the frequency range is then restricted below 1THz. The frequencies used for the retrieval of atmospheric parameters such as temperature and water content are usually a few hundred GHz, at the lower end of THz wavelengths, so this frequency range is sufficient. The radiation contribution of every atmospheric layer for typical frequencies such as absorption window frequencies and peak frequencies are analyzed. Results show that at frequencies which absorption is severe, information about lower atmosphere cannot reach the receiver onboard a satellite or other high platforms due to the strong absorption along the path.

Upward creep of the heart: A frequent source of false-positive reversible defects during thallium-201 stress-redistribution SPECT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Friedman, J.; Van Train, K.; Maddahi, J.; Rozanski, A.; Prigent, F.; Bietendorf, J.; Waxman, A.; Berman, D.S.

1989-01-01

A new cause of artifactual 201 Tl defects on single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) termed upward creep of the heart is described. In 102 consecutive patients undergoing 201 Tl SPECT, 30 (29%) demonstrated upward creep defined by an upward movement of the heart of greater than or equal to 2 pixels during acquisition. In 45 consecutive patients with a less than 5% likelihood of coronary artery disease, 17 (38%) had upward creep. Of these nine had reversible 201 Tl defects localized to the inferior and basal inferoseptal walls, while none of the 28 without upward creep had defects. The 17 low likelihood patients with upward creep had longer exercise duration and higher peak heart rate than those without upward creep. In five additional low likelihood patients with upward creep in whom imaging was immediately repeated, the upward creep pattern disappeared on the repeated images. After we changed our test protocol to begin imaging 15 min postexercise, only five (14%) of 36 low likelihood patients tested demonstrated upward creep. Upward creep is probably related to a transient increase in mean total lung volume early following exhaustive exercise, resulting in a mean lower position of the diaphragm (and thus the heart) at the beginning of imaging. The frequency of this source of false-positive 201 Tl studies can be reduced by delaying SPECT acquisition until 15 min postexercise

Matter effects in upward-going muons and sterile neutrino oscillations

CERN Document Server

Ambrosio, M; Auriemma, G; Bakari, D; Baldini, A; Barbarino, G C; Barish, B C; Battistoni, G; Becherini, Y; Bellotti, R; Bemporad, C; Bernardini, P; Bilokon, H; Bisi, V; Bloise, C; Bower, C; Brigida, M; Bussino, S; Cafagna, F; Calicchio, M; Campana, D; Carboni, M; Caruso, R; Cecchini, S; Cei, F; Chiarella, V; Choudhary, B C; Coutu, S; De Cataldo, G; Dekhissi, H; De Marzo, C; De Mitri, I; Derkaoui, J E; De Vincenzi, M; Di Credico, A; Erriquez, O; Favuzzi, C; Forti, C; Fusco, P; Giacomelli, G; Giannini, G; Giglietto, N; Giorgini, M; Grassi, M; Gray, L; Grillo, A; Guarino, F; Gustavino, C; Habig, A; Hanson, K; Heinz, R; Iarocci, Enzo; Katsavounidis, E; Katsavounidis, I; Kearns, E T; Kim, H; Kyriazopoulou, S; Lammanna, E; Lane, C; Levins, D S; Lipari, P; Longley, N P; Longo, M J; Loparco, F; Maaroufi, F; Mancarella, G; Mandrioli, G; Margiotta, A; Marini, A; Martello, D; Marzari-Chiesa, A; Mazziotta, M N; Michael, D G; Mikheyev, S P; Miller, L; Monacelli, P; Montaruli, T; Monteno, M; Mufson, S L; Musser, J; Nicolò, D; Nolty, R; Orth, C; Osteria, G; Palamara, O; Patera, V; Patrizii, L; Pazzi, R; Peck, C W; Perrone, L; Petrera, S; Pistilli, P; Popa, V; Rainó, A; Reynoldson, J; Ronga, F; Rrhioua, A; Satriano, C; Scapparone, E; Scholberg, K; Sciubba, A; Serra, P; Sioli, M; Sirri, G; Sitta, M; Spinelli, P; Spinetti, M; Spurio, M; Steinberg, R; Stone, J L; Sulak, Lawrence R; Surdo, A; Tarle, G; Togo, V; Vakili, M; Walter, C W; Webb, R

2001-01-01

The angular distribution of upward-going muons produced by atmospheric neutrinos in the rock below the MACRO detector shows anomalies in good agreement with two flavor nu /sub mu / to nu /sub tau / oscillations with maximum mixing and Delta m/sup 2/ around 0.0024 eV/sup 2/. Exploiting the dependence of magnitude of the matter effect on the oscillation channel, and using a set of 809 upward-going muons observed in MACRO, we show that the two flavor nu /sub mu / to nu /sub s/ oscillation is disfavored with 99% C.L. with respect to nu /sub mu / to nu /sub tau /. (29 refs).

Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Yafeng; Piao, Shilong; Lu, Xiaoming; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhu, Liping; Ciais, Philippe; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-01-01

The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unchanging treeline elevations or upward shifts. To reconcile this conflict, we reconstructed in detail a century of treeline structure and tree recruitment at sites along a climatic gradient of 4 °C and mean annual rainfall of 650 mm on the eastern TP. Species interactions interacted with effects of warming on treeline and could outweigh them. Densification of shrubs just above treeline inhibited tree establishment, and slowed upward movement of treelines on a time scale of decades. Interspecific interactions are major processes controlling treeline dynamics that may account for the absence of an upward shift at some TP treelines despite continued climatic warming. PMID:27044083

Species interactions slow warming-induced upward shifts of treelines on the Tibetan Plateau.

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Eryuan; Wang, Yafeng; Piao, Shilong; Lu, Xiaoming; Camarero, Jesús Julio; Zhu, Haifeng; Zhu, Liping; Ellison, Aaron M; Ciais, Philippe; Peñuelas, Josep

2016-04-19

The alpine treeline is commonly regarded as being sensitive to climatic warming because regeneration and growth of trees at treeline generally are limited by low temperature. The alpine treelines of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) occur at the highest elevations (4,900 m above sea level) in the Northern Hemisphere. Ongoing climatic warming is expected to shift treelines upward. Studies of treeline dynamics at regional and local scales, however, have yielded conflicting results, indicating either unchanging treeline elevations or upward shifts. To reconcile this conflict, we reconstructed in detail a century of treeline structure and tree recruitment at sites along a climatic gradient of 4 °C and mean annual rainfall of 650 mm on the eastern TP. Species interactions interacted with effects of warming on treeline and could outweigh them. Densification of shrubs just above treeline inhibited tree establishment, and slowed upward movement of treelines on a time scale of decades. Interspecific interactions are major processes controlling treeline dynamics that may account for the absence of an upward shift at some TP treelines despite continued climatic warming.

Significant social events and increasing use of life-sustaining treatment: trend analysis using extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as an example.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yen-Yuan; Chen, Likwang; Huang, Tien-Shang; Ko, Wen-Je; Chu, Tzong-Shinn; Ni, Yen-Hsuan; Chang, Shan-Chwen

2014-03-04

Most studies have examined the outcomes of patients supported by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation as a life-sustaining treatment. It is unclear whether significant social events are associated with the use of life-sustaining treatment. This study aimed to compare the trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use in Taiwan with that in the world, and to examine the influence of significant social events on the trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use in Taiwan. Taiwan's extracorporeal membrane oxygenation uses from 2000 to 2009 were collected from National Health Insurance Research Dataset. The number of the worldwide extracorporeal membrane oxygenation cases was mainly estimated using Extracorporeal Life Support Registry Report International Summary July 2012. The trend of Taiwan's crude annual incidence rate of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use was compared with that of the rest of the world. Each trend of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use was examined using joinpoint regression. The measurement was the crude annual incidence rate of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use. Each of the Taiwan's crude annual incidence rates was much higher than the worldwide one in the same year. Both the trends of Taiwan's and worldwide crude annual incidence rates have significantly increased since 2000. Joinpoint regression selected the model of the Taiwan's trend with one joinpoint in 2006 as the best-fitted model, implying that the significant social events in 2006 were significantly associated with the trend change of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use following 2006. In addition, significantly social events highlighted by the media are more likely to be associated with the increase of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use than being fully covered by National Health Insurance. Significant social events, such as a well-known person's successful extracorporeal membrane oxygenation use highlighted by the mass media, are associated with the use of

Evaluation of long-term trends in hydrologic and water-quality conditions, and estimation of water budgets through 2013, Chester County, Pennsylvania

Science.gov (United States)

Sloto, Ronald A.; Reif, Andrew G.

2017-06-02

-quality monitors in the Brandywine Creek watershed were evaluated. The monitors are on the West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617), East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870), and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). Statistically significant upward trends were determined for annual mean specific conductance at all three stations, indicating the total dissolved solids load has been increasing. If the current trend continues, the annual mean specific conductance could almost double from 1974 to 2050. The increase in specific conductance likely is due to increases in chloride concentrations, which have been increasing steadily over time at all three stations. No correlation was found between monthly mean specific conductance and monthly mean streamflow or base flow. Statistically significant upward trends in pH were determined for all three stations. Statistically significant upward trends in stream temperature were determined for East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870) and Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford, Pa. (01481000). The stream water-quality data indicate substantial increases in the minimum daily dissolved oxygen concentrations in the Brandywine Creek over time.The Chester County Index of Biotic Integrity (CC-IBI) determined for 1998‒2013 was evaluated for the five biological sampling sites collocated with streamgages. CC-IBI scores are based on a 0‒100 scale with higher scores indicating better stream quality. Statistically significant upward trends in the CC-IBI were determined for West Branch Brandywine Creek at Modena, Pa. (01480617) and East Branch Brandywine Creek below Downingtown, Pa. (01480870). No correlation was found between the CC-IBI and streamflow, precipitation, or stream specific conductance, pH, temperature, or dissolved oxygen concentration.A Chester County average water budget was developed using the nine estimated watershed water budgets. Average precipitation was 48.4 inches, and

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

López-Abente Gonzalo

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

AN UPWARD TREND IN DNA P16INK4A METHYLATION PATTERN AND HIGH RISK HPV INFECTION ACCORDING TO THE SEVERITY OF THE CERVICAL LESION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernanda Nahoum Carestiato

2013-09-01

Full Text Available SUMMARY High-risk human papillomavirus (hr-HPV infection is necessary but not sufficient for cervical cancer development. Recently, P16INK4A gene silencing through hypermethylation has been proposed as an important cofactor in cervical carcinogenesis due to its tumor suppressor function. We aimed to investigate P16INK4A methylation status in normal and neoplastic epithelia and evaluate an association with HPV infection and genotype. This cross-sectional study was performed with 141 cervical samples from patients attending Hospital Moncorvo Filho, Rio de Janeiro. HPV detection and genotyping were performed through PCR and P16INK4A methylation by nested-methylation specific PCR (MSP. HPV frequency was 62.4% (88/141. The most common HPV were HPV16 (37%, HPV18 (16.3% and HPV33/45(15.2%. An upward trend was observed concerning P16INK4A methylation and lesion degree: normal epithelia (10.7%, low grade lesions (22.9%, high grade (57.1% and carcinoma (93.1% (p < 0.0001. A multivariate analysis was performed to evaluate an association between methylation, age, tobacco exposure, HPV infection and genotyping. A correlation was found concerning methylation with HPV infection (p < 0.0001, hr-HPV (p = 0.01, HSIL (p < 0.0007 and malignant lesions (p < 0.0001. Since viral infection and epigenetic alterations are related to cervical carcinoma, we suggest that P16INK4A methylation profile maybe thoroughly investigated as a biomarker to identify patients at risk of cancer.

Upward migration of radio-cesium and strontium in a sand-filled lysimeter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanford, W.E.; Larsen, I.L.; McConnell, J.W.; Rogers, R.D.

1998-01-01

The upward migration of 134 Cs, 137 Cs, and 90 Sr was observed in a silica sand-filled lysimeter at the Field Lysimeter Investigations: Low Level Waste Data Base Development experiment site at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The source of the radionuclides first observed on the surface was identified from isotopic analysis as being from the buried waste. Cores of the sand were collected and analyzed for the vertical distribution of the radionuclides. Results of analyses revealed that pulses (elevated levels) in the activity of the Cs and Sr radioisotopes occurred at the same depths. During the sectioning of the sand core collected from directly above the buried waste form it was discovered that a fine root from an unidentified plant was present throughout all but the upper few centimeters of the core. Because the upward migration was unexpected, information that may lead to the determination of a definitive mechanism of migration was not preserved. The distribution of the radionuclides coupled with the presence of the root suggest that Cs and Sr migrated upward in the evapotranspiration stream of the root. Further study must be undertaken to confirm this phenomenon. Upward migration of radionuclides as observed here could result in direct exposures and offsite releases from underground storage facilities. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Does upward mobility result in greater well-being? Evidence from a pre-registered study on a large population-based survey

OpenAIRE

Cheung, Felix; Jackson, Joshua; Hill, Patrick

2017-01-01

Income inequality gained increasing attention in public discourse. Promoting upward mobility is a potential solution to income inequality. The current study tested whether upward mobility predicts greater well-being, whether upward mobility attenuates the negative effects of income inequality, and whether gender differences in upward mobility differentially predict well-being for men and women. Upward mobility was operationalized as changes in income rank across generations for families in th...

Trends in significant wave height and surface wind speed in the China Seas between 1988 and 2011

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Chongwei; Zhang, Ren; Shi, Weilai; Li, Xin; Chen, Xuan

2017-10-01

Wind and waves are key components of the climate system as they drive air-sea interactions and influence weather systems and atmospheric circulation. In marine environments, understanding surface wind and wave fields and their evolution over time is important for conducting safe and efficient human activities, such as navigation and engineering. This study considers long-term trends in the sea surface wind speed (WS) and significant wave height (SWH) in the China Seas over the period 1988-2011 using the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) ocean surface wind product and a 24-year hindcast wave dataset obtained from the WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) wave model forced with CCMP winds. The long-term trends in WS and SWH in the China Seas are analyzed over the past 24 years to provide a reference point from which to assess future climate change and offshore wind and wave energy resource development in the region. Results demonstrate that over the period 1988-2011 in the China Seas: 1) WS and SWH showed a significant increasing trend of 3.38 cm s-1 yr-1 and 1.52 cm yr-1, respectively; 2) there were notable regional differences in the long-term trends of WS and SWH; 3) areas with strong increasing trends were located mainly in the middle of the Tsushima Strait, the northern and southern areas of the Taiwan Strait, and in nearshore regions of the northern South China Sea; and 4) the long-term trend in WS was closely associated with El Niño and a significant increase in the occurrence of gale force winds in the region.

Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability?

Science.gov (United States)

Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.

2017-10-01

Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Souza, Eliana Amorim de; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8-1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9-4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3-6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1-4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females.

Upward swimming of a sperm cell in shear flow.

Science.gov (United States)

Omori, Toshihiro; Ishikawa, Takuji

2016-03-01

Mammalian sperm cells are required to swim over long distances, typically around 1000-fold their own length. They must orient themselves and maintain a swimming motion to reach the ovum, or egg cell. Although the mechanism of long-distance navigation is still unclear, one possible mechanism, rheotaxis, was reported recently. This work investigates the mechanism of the rheotaxis in detail by simulating the motions of a sperm cell in shear flow adjacent to a flat surface. A phase diagram was developed to show the sperm's swimming motion under different shear rates, and for varying flagellum waveform conditions. The results showed that, under shear flow, the sperm is able to hydrodynamically change its swimming direction, allowing it to swim upwards against the flow, which suggests that the upward swimming of sperm cells can be explained using fluid mechanics, and this can then be used to further understand physiology of sperm cell navigation.

Are Millennials with Student Loans Upwardly Mobile?

OpenAIRE

Whitaker, Stephan

2015-01-01

Students have been amassing ever growing levels of debt to attend college. The situation has raised concerns about whether the debt is high enough that the benefits of borrowing—in terms of students’ future socioeconomic outcomes—are compromised. This Commentary investigates relationships between student debt, mobility, and upward social mobility. The findings suggest that student debts have not become so burdensome that they undo the advantages of higher skills. However, the advantages enjoy...

Multiyear Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Volta River Basin and their Potential Impact on Hydropower Generation in Ghana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amos T. Kabo-Bah

2016-10-01

Full Text Available The effects of temperature and rainfall changes on hydropower generation in Ghana from 1960–2011 were examined to understand country-wide trends of climate variability. Moreover, the discharge and the water level trends for the Akosombo reservoir from 1965–2014 were examined using the Mann-Kendall test statistic to assess localised changes. The annual temperature trend was positive while rainfall showed both negative and positive trends in different parts of the country. However, these trends were not statistically significant in the study regions in 1960 to 2011. Rainfall was not evenly distributed throughout the years, with the highest rainfall recorded between 1960 and 1970 and the lowest rainfalls between 2000 and 2011. The Mann-Kendall test shows an upward trend for the discharge of the Akosombo reservoir and a downward trend for the water level. However, the discharge irregularities of the reservoir do not necessarily affect the energy generated from the Akosombo plant, but rather the regular low flow of water into the reservoir affected power generation. This is the major concern for the operations of the Akosombo hydropower plant for energy generation in Ghana.

New data on two-phase water-air hydrodynamics in vertical upward and downward tubes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lau, V [Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd., Saskatoon, SK (Canada); Rezkallah, K S [Saskatchewan Univ., Saskatoon (Canada). Mechanical Engineering Dept.

1996-12-31

The three key parameters involved in the analysis of the hydrodynamic characteristics of a two-phase system (i.e. pressure drop, void fraction, and flow pattern associated with the flow) are taken in vertical upward and downward tubes, using water-air mixture at atmospheric pressure. The acquired data set covers a wide range of liquid and gas flow rates, as well as void fractions. Using the acquired data set, two sets of flow pattern maps, for both upward and downward flows, are developed in the present study. Furthermore, a set of correlations for predicting the frictional pressure drop in both upward and downward flow were also developed. (author). 16 refs., 13 figs.

UPWARD MOVEMENT OF PLUTONIUM TO SURFACE SEDIMENTS DURING AN 11-YEAR FIELD STUDY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaplan, D.; Beals, D.; Cadieux, J.; Halverson, J.

2010-01-25

An 11-y lysimeter study was established to monitor the movement of Pu through vadose zone sediments. Sediment Pu concentrations as a function of depth indicated that some Pu moved upward from the buried source material. Subsequent numerical modeling suggested that the upward movement was largely the result of invading grasses taking up the Pu and translocating it upward. The objective of this study was to determine if the Pu of surface sediments originated from atmosphere fallout or from the buried lysimeter source material (weapons-grade Pu), providing additional evidence that plants were involved in the upward migration of Pu. The {sup 240}Pu/{sup 239}Pu and {sup 242}Pu/{sup 239}Pu atomic fraction ratios of the lysimeter surface sediments, as determined by Thermal Ionization Mass Spectroscopy (TIMS), were 0.063 and 0.00045, respectively; consistent with the signatures of the weapons-grade Pu. Our numerical simulations indicate that because plants create a large water flux, small concentrations over multiple years may result in a measurable accumulation of Pu on the ground surface. These results may have implications on the conceptual model for calculating risk associated with long-term stewardship and monitored natural attenuation management of Pu contaminated subsurface and surface sediments.

Dynamics of rainwater lenses on upward seeping saline groundwater

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eeman, Sara

2017-01-01

Fresh water is generally a limited resource in coastal areas which are often densely populated. In low-lying areas, groundwater is mostly saline and both agriculture and freshwater nature depend on a thin lens of rainwater that is formed by precipitation surplus on top of saline, upward seeping

Temporal trends in water-quality constituent concentrations and annual loads of chemical constituents in Michigan watersheds, 1998–2013

Science.gov (United States)

Hoard, Christopher J.; Fogarty, Lisa R.; Duris, Joseph W.

2018-02-21

In 1998, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality and the U.S. Geological Survey began the Water Chemistry Monitoring Program for select streams in the State of Michigan. Objectives of this program were to provide assistance with (1) statewide water-quality assessments, (2) the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permitting process, and (3) water-resource management decisions. As part of this program, water-quality data collected from 1998 to 2013 were analyzed to identify potential trends for select constituents that were sampled. Sixteen water-quality constituents were analyzed at 32 stations throughout Michigan. Trend analysis on the various water-quality data was done using either the uncensored Seasonal Kendall test or through Tobit regression. In total, 79 trends were detected in the constituents analyzed for 32 river stations sampled for the study period—53 downward trends and 26 upward trends were detected. The most prevalent trend detected throughout the State was for ammonia, with 11 downward trends and 1 upward trend estimated.In addition to trends, constituent loads were estimated for 31 stations from 2002 to 2013 for stations that were sampled 12 times per year. Loads were computed using the Autobeale load computation program, which used the Beale ratio estimator approach to estimate an annual load. Constituent loads were the largest in large watershed streams with the highest annual flows such as the Saginaw and Grand Rivers. Likewise, constituent loads were the smallest in smaller tributaries that were sampled as part of this program such as the Boardman and Thunder Bay Rivers.

Submarine Upward Looking Sonar Ice Draft Profile Data and Statistics

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set consists of upward looking sonar draft data collected by submarines in the Arctic Ocean. It includes data from both U.S. Navy and Royal Navy...

An Extreme-ultraviolet Wave Generating Upward Secondary Waves in a Streamer-like Solar Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Ruisheng; Chen, Yao; Feng, Shiwei; Wang, Bing; Song, Hongqiang

2018-05-01

Extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) waves, spectacular horizontally propagating disturbances in the low solar corona, always trigger horizontal secondary waves (SWs) when they encounter the ambient coronal structure. We present the first example of upward SWs in a streamer-like structure after the passing of an EUV wave. This event occurred on 2017 June 1. The EUV wave happened during a typical solar eruption including a filament eruption, a coronal mass ejection (CME), and a C6.6 flare. The EUV wave was associated with quasi-periodic fast propagating (QFP) wave trains and a type II radio burst that represented the existence of a coronal shock. The EUV wave had a fast initial velocity of ∼1000 km s‑1, comparable to high speeds of the shock and the QFP wave trains. Intriguingly, upward SWs rose slowly (∼80 km s‑1) in the streamer-like structure after the sweeping of the EUV wave. The upward SWs seemed to originate from limb brightenings that were caused by the EUV wave. All of the results show that the EUV wave is a fast-mode magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) shock wave, likely triggered by the flare impulses. We suggest that part of the EUV wave was probably trapped in the closed magnetic fields of the streamer-like structure, and upward SWs possibly resulted from the release of slow-mode trapped waves. It is believed that the interplay of the strong compression of the coronal shock and the configuration of the streamer-like structure is crucial for the formation of upward SWs.

Heating-Business - The upward trend continues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wartburg, L. von

2006-01-01

This article presents the results of interviews carried out with eight leading heating experts on current developments in the heating business in Switzerland. The author comments on how the installers of heating systems are profiting from the good situation to be found in the building industry in general. Apart from refurbishment projects, the increasing interest in renewable forms of energy is commented on. New developments are covered, as are the interviewee's opinions on further market developments. Also the effects on market structure caused by increasing prices for heating oil are discussed. Finally the interviewee's opinions on future technological developments are presented

Physical activity trends in Queensland (2002 to 2008): are women becoming more active than men?

Science.gov (United States)

Vandelanotte, Corneel; Duncan, Mitch J; Caperchione, Cristina; Hanley, Christine; Mummery, W Kerry

2010-06-01

Regular monitoring of population levels of physical activity is an effective way to assess change over time towards meeting public health recommendations. The objective of this study was to determine physical activity trends in Central Queensland over the period 2002 to 2008. Data was obtained from the Central Queensland Social Survey (CQSS) conducted annually from 2002 to 2008. A total sample of 8,936 adults aged 18 and over participated in seven cross-sectional surveys. Physical activity was measured using the Active Australia Questionnaire. Binary logistic regression was used to examine trends in sufficient physical activity. Averaged over all survey years 46.5% of study participants met national physical activity guidelines. A small significant upward trend was found for meeting physical activity recommendations across all years (OR=1.03; 95%CI=1.01-1.05), indicating that the odds of meeting the guidelines increased by an average of 3% per year from 2002 to 2008. Slightly more men than women met the activity guidelines (ns); however a significant positive trend in achieving sufficient activity levels was present in women only (4%). Although an increasing trend for sufficient physical activity was observed, overall physical activity levels in Central Queensland remain suboptimal and more efforts to increase physical activity are needed. The gender differences in physical activity trends indicate that men and women might need to be targeted differently in health promotion messages. The continuous monitoring of population levels of physical activity in Australia, which allow both state specific and international comparisons, is needed.

"Fist, Stick, Knife, Gun": Getting Real in Upward Bound.

Science.gov (United States)

Pace, Barbara G.; Adkins, Theresa A.

2002-01-01

Describes how a teacher found literature for Upward Bound students. Presents Geoffrey Canada's "Fist, Stick, Knife, Gun: A Personal History of Violence in America" as a nonfiction work to provide clarity and connections that might not have been available in a fictional work, yet it had elements of literary fiction that made the text…

Wave climate and trends along the eastern Chukchi Arctic Alaska coast

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, L.H.; Storlazzi, C.D.; Jensen, R.E.

2011-01-01

Due in large part to the difficulty of obtaining measurements in the Arctic, little is known about the wave climate along the coast of Arctic Alaska. In this study, numerical model simulations encompassing 40 years of wave hind-casts were used to assess mean and extreme wave conditions. Results indicate that the wave climate was strongly modulated by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and that mean and extreme wave heights and periods exhibited increasing trends in both the sea and swell frequency bands over the time-period studied (1954-2004). Model simulations also indicate that the upward trend was not due to a decrease in the minimum icepack extent. ?? 2011 ASCE.

Setting the Record Straight: Strong Positive Impacts Found from the National Evaluation of Upward Bound. Re-Analysis Documents Significant Positive Impacts Masked by Errors in Flawed Contractor Reports

Science.gov (United States)

Cahalan, Margaret; Goodwin, David

2014-01-01

In January 2009, in the last week of the Bush Administration, the U.S. Department of Education (ED), upon orders from the departing political appointee staff, published the final report in a long running National Evaluation of Upward Bound (UB). The study was conducted by the contractor, Mathematica Policy Research. After more than a year in…

Experimental study on liquid velocity in upward and downward two-phase flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, X.; Paranjape, S.; Kim, S.; Ozar, B.; Ishii, M.

2003-01-01

Local characteristics of the liquid phase in upward and downward air-water two-phase flows were experimentally investigated in a 50.8-mm inner-diameter round pipe. An integral Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) system was used to measure the axial liquid velocity and its fluctuations. No effect of the flow direction on the liquid velocity radial profile was observed in single-phase liquid benchmark experiments. Local multi-sensor conductivity probes were used to measure the radial profiles of the bubble velocity and the void fraction. The measurement results in the upward and downward two-phase flows are compared and discussed. The results in the downward flow demonstrated that the presence of the bubbles tended to flatten the liquid velocity radial profile, and the maximum liquid velocity could occur off the pipe centerline, in particular at relatively low flow rates. However, the maximum liquid velocity always occurred at the pipe center in the upward flow. Also, noticeable turbulence enhancement due to the bubbles in the two-phase flows was observed in the current experimental flow conditions. Furthermore, the distribution parameter and the void weighted area-averaged drift velocity were obtained based on the definitions

34 CFR 645.13 - What additional services do Upward Bound Math and Science Centers provide and how are they...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What additional services do Upward Bound Math and... Program? § 645.13 What additional services do Upward Bound Math and Science Centers provide and how are... provided under § 645.11(b), an Upward Bound Math and Science Center must provide— (1) Intensive instruction...

Water quality trends in the Blackwater River watershed, West Virginia

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jessica; Welsh, Stuart A.; Anderson, James T.; Fortney, Ronald H.

2015-01-01

An understanding of historic and current water quality is needed to manage and improve aquatic communities within the Blackwater River watershed, WV. The Blackwater River, which historically offered an excellent Salvelinus fontinalis (Brook Trout) fishery, has been affected by logging, coal mining, use of off-road vehicles, and land development. Using information-theoretic methods, we examined trends in water quality at 12 sites in the watershed for the 14 years of 1980–1993. Except for Beaver Creek, downward trends in acidity and upward trends in alkalinity, conductivity, and hardness were consistent with decreases in hydrogen ion concentration. Water-quality trends for Beaver Creek were inconsistent with the other sites and reflect ongoing coal-mining influences. Dissolved oxygen trended downward, possibly due to natural conditions, but remained above thresholds that would be detrimental to aquatic life. Water quality changed only slightly within the watershed from 1980–1993, possibly reflecting few changes in development and land uses during this time. These data serve as a baseline for future water-quality studies and may help to inform management planning.

Trends in radionuclide concentrations for wildlife and food products near Hanford for the period 1971-1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwell, L.L.; Eberhardt, L.E.; Price, K.R.; Carlile, D.W.

1990-01-01

We evaluated the Hanford environmental data base for trends in radionuclide concentrations in wildlife and food products sampled from 1971 through 1988 on or near the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southeastern Washington. Although statistical analyses showed short-term changes, no upward trends in radionuclide concentrations were detected. Many samples showed a significant decline in some radionuclides, particularly for 137 Cs. Concentrations of 65 Zn also showed a downward trend in many samples. Cessation of atmospheric testing by the United States and the USSR in 1971 contributed to the decline in radionuclide levels in some samples. Contaminants discharged to the Columbia River at Hanford were reduced after shutdown of the last once-through cooling-water reactor in 1971. A decline in concentrations of 65 Zn in oysters from Willapa Bay and 60 Co and 65 Zn in mountain whitefish from the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River are attributable to reactor closure. There was also an apparent reduction in availability of radiological contamination to Hanford wildlife after decommissioning of waste-water disposal ponds and remediation of contaminated terrestrial sites

Leprosy and gender in Brazil: trends in an endemic area of the Northeast region, 2001–2014

Science.gov (United States)

de Souza, Eliana Amorim; Ferreira, Anderson Fuentes; Boigny, Reagan Nzundu; Alencar, Carlos Henrique; Heukelbach, Jorg; Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio; Barbosa, Jaqueline Caracas; Ramos, Alberto Novaes

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze, stratifield by gender, trends of the new case leprosy detection rates in the general population and in children; of grade 2 disability, and of proportion of multibacillary cases, in the state of Bahia, Brazil from 2001 to 2014. METHODS A time series study based on leprosy data from the National Information System for Notifiable Diseases. The time trend analysis included Poisson regression models by infection points (Joinpoint) stratified by gender. RESULTS There was a total of 40,054 new leprosy cases with a downward trend of the overall detection rate (Average Annual Percent Change [AAPC = -0.4, 95%CI -2.8–1.9] and a non-significant increase in children under 15 years (AAPC = 0.2, 95%CI -3.9–4.5). The proportion of grade 2 disability among new cases increased significantly (AAPC = 4.0, 95%CI 1.3–6.8), as well as the proportion of multibacillary cases (AAPC = 2.2, 95%CI 0.1–4.3). Stratification by gender showed a downward trend of detection rates in females and no significant change in males; in females, there was a more pronounced upward trend of the proportion of multibacillary and grade 2 disability cases. CONCLUSIONS Leprosy is still highly endemic in the state of Bahia, with active transmission, late diagnosis, and a probable hidden endemic. There are different gender patterns, indicating the importance of early diagnosis and prompt treatment, specifically in males without neglecting the situation among females. PMID:29489990

Leadership Behaviour and Upward Feedback: Findings from a Longitudinal Intervention

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D. van Dierendonck (Dirk); C. Haynes (Clare); C. Borrill (Carol); C. Stride (Chris)

2007-01-01

textabstractA sample of 48 managers and 308 staff members of a community health care organization took part in a study to investigate the influence of participating in an upward feedback program on leadership behaviour, both as indicated be self-ratings and subordinates’ ratings. The research design

How Upward Moral Comparison Influences Prosocial Behavioral Intention: Examining the Mediating Role of Guilt and the Moderating Role of Moral Identity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heyun Zhang

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Although it has been shown that exceptional good deeds exert influences on people's prosocial behavior and intention, we have known little about how common moral actions in our daily life. The present study aimed to examine how upward moral comparison influenced prosocial behavioral intention as well as to explore the mediating role of guilt and the moderating role of moral identity in the focal relationship. An experimental study was conducted with 162 Chinese undergraduates (103 women, 59 men randomly assigned to an upward moral comparison condition, an upward competence comparison condition or a control condition. Results indicated that participants in the upward moral comparison condition experienced higher levels of guilt and exhibited stronger motivation to act prosocially, relative to participants in the other two conditions. That is to say, upward moral comparison induces guilty experience, and then increases people's prosocial behavioral intention. Moreover, we have found that moral identity internalization moderates the upward moral comparison-guilt relationship, and the indirect effect of upward moral comparison on prosocial behavioral intention via guilt. The implications of these findings were discussed.

How Upward Moral Comparison Influences Prosocial Behavioral Intention: Examining the Mediating Role of Guilt and the Moderating Role of Moral Identity.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Heyun; Chen, Sisi; Wang, Rong; Jiang, Jiang; Xu, Yan; Zhao, Huanhuan

2017-01-01

Although it has been shown that exceptional good deeds exert influences on people's prosocial behavior and intention, we have known little about how common moral actions in our daily life. The present study aimed to examine how upward moral comparison influenced prosocial behavioral intention as well as to explore the mediating role of guilt and the moderating role of moral identity in the focal relationship. An experimental study was conducted with 162 Chinese undergraduates (103 women, 59 men) randomly assigned to an upward moral comparison condition, an upward competence comparison condition or a control condition. Results indicated that participants in the upward moral comparison condition experienced higher levels of guilt and exhibited stronger motivation to act prosocially, relative to participants in the other two conditions. That is to say, upward moral comparison induces guilty experience, and then increases people's prosocial behavioral intention. Moreover, we have found that moral identity internalization moderates the upward moral comparison-guilt relationship, and the indirect effect of upward moral comparison on prosocial behavioral intention via guilt. The implications of these findings were discussed.

How Upward Moral Comparison Influences Prosocial Behavioral Intention: Examining the Mediating Role of Guilt and the Moderating Role of Moral Identity

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Heyun; Chen, Sisi; Wang, Rong; Jiang, Jiang; Xu, Yan; Zhao, Huanhuan

2017-01-01

Although it has been shown that exceptional good deeds exert influences on people's prosocial behavior and intention, we have known little about how common moral actions in our daily life. The present study aimed to examine how upward moral comparison influenced prosocial behavioral intention as well as to explore the mediating role of guilt and the moderating role of moral identity in the focal relationship. An experimental study was conducted with 162 Chinese undergraduates (103 women, 59 men) randomly assigned to an upward moral comparison condition, an upward competence comparison condition or a control condition. Results indicated that participants in the upward moral comparison condition experienced higher levels of guilt and exhibited stronger motivation to act prosocially, relative to participants in the other two conditions. That is to say, upward moral comparison induces guilty experience, and then increases people's prosocial behavioral intention. Moreover, we have found that moral identity internalization moderates the upward moral comparison-guilt relationship, and the indirect effect of upward moral comparison on prosocial behavioral intention via guilt. The implications of these findings were discussed. PMID:28959221

Managing upwards: a guide for the foundation year doctor.

Science.gov (United States)

Hooke, Rachel

2009-06-01

The concept of managing your boss sounds peculiar, as people usually only think of managing staff under them. Nevertheless, adept management 'upwards' can reap dividends. It is not manipulative or sly - it is about good working relations. This article is mainly about dealing with consultants. However, the same principles can apply to other doctors more senior than you in the team.

Trends in radionuclide concentrations for wildlife and food products near Hanford for the period 1971 through 1988

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eberhardt, L.E.; Cadwell, L.L.; Price, K.R.; Carlile, D.W.

1989-10-01

The objective of this summary investigation was to identify trends in radionuclide concentrations for wildlife and food products sampled from 1971 through 1988 as part of the Hanford Site Environmental Monitoring Program. No upward trends in radionuclide concentrations were detected for any wildlife or food products. Several sample types demonstrated significantly declining radionuclide concentrations. Three factors appeared to be responsible for the trends. First, the cessation of atmospheric testing by the United States and Soviet Union in 1971 contributed to the decline of radionuclides in some samples. Second, contaminants discharged to the Columbia River were reduced subsequent to the 1971 shutdown of the last Hanford nuclear reactor that used a once-through cooling water design. The reactor closing resulted in declines in activation products in oysters from Willapa Bay and in whitefish from the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. Third, reductions in radionuclide concentrations in Hanford wildlife suggested a decreasing availability of environmental contaminants to wildlife. Remediation of areas having environmental surface contaminants on the Hanford Site was identified as a probable cause. 5 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

Complementary feeding patterns in the first year of life in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: time trends from 1998 to 2008

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Alves de Oliveira

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze time trends in complementary feeding practices among children under one year of age in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, from 1998 to 2008. Based on comparable questions on food consumption in five surveys conducted in representative randomized samples of children in 1998 (n = 3,762, 2000 (n = 3,670, 2003 (n = 4,305, 2006 (n = 3,686, and 2008 (n = 2,621, 16 complementary feeding indicators were constructed. The percentage frequency of all indicators was estimated for each year of the study. Linear trend analyses were also conducted by means of multivariate regression models. All indicators of early complementary feeding decreased from 1998 to 2008. In the 6-11.9 month age group, there was a significant downward trend in the proportion of children receiving food with adequate consistency for their age, consumption of iron-rich foods, and overall adequacy of the diet. A significant upward trend in fruit consumption was observed. There was a decrease in the early complementary feeding, and generally a worsening of complementary feeding practices in children aged 6-11.9 months in Rio de Janeiro during the period studied.

Interfacial structures and area transport in upward and downward two-phase flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paranjape, S. S.; Kim, S.; Ishii, M.; Kelly, J.

2003-01-01

An experimental study has been carried out for upward and downward two-phase flow to study local interfacial structures and interfacial area transport. The flow studied, is an adiabatic, air-water, co-current, two-phase flow, in 25.4 mm and 50.8 mm ID test sections. Flow regime map is obtained using the characteristic signals obtained from an impedance void meter, employing neural network based identification methodology. A four sensor conductivity probe is used to measure the local two phase flow parameters, in bubbly flow regime. The local profiles of these parameters as well as their axial development reveal the nature of the interfacial structures and the bubble interaction mechanisms occurring in the flow. Furthermore, this study provides a good database for the development of the interfacial area transport equation, which dynamically models the changes in the interfacial area along a flow field. An interfacial area transport equation is used for downward flow based on that developed for the upward flow, with certain modifications in the bubble interaction terms. The area averaged values of the interfacial area concentration are compared with those predicted by the interfacial area transport model. The differences in the interfacial structures and interfacial area transport in co-current downward and upward two-phase flows are studied

Trend of elevator-related accidents in tehran.

Science.gov (United States)

Khaji, Ali; Ghodsi, Syyed Mohammad

2014-06-01

Elevator-related accidents are uncommon, but can cause significant injury. However, little data exist on these types of accidents. To compile and analyze accident data involving elevators in an effort to eliminate or at least significantly reduce such accidents. In this retrospective study we investigated 1,819 cases of elevator-related accidents during a four-year period (1999-2003) in Tehran. The data were obtained from the Tehran Safety Services & Fire Fighting Organization (TSFO) that is officially and solely responsible to conduct rescue missions of civilians in Tehran. The number of elevator accidents has increased steadily during the four year study period. During these four years there was a positive upward trend for serious injuries and mortality resulting from elevator accidents. Technical problems were the main cause with 74.5%, followed by power loss and overcapacity riding with 11.5% and 7.9% respectively. Sixty-three individuals sustained serious injury and 15 people died as a result of elevator accidents. The number of accidents was significantly higher in summer (x2=18.32, P=0.032) and a considerable proportion of incidences (54%, 947 cases out of 1819) occurred between 5 and 12 pm. Establishment of an organization to inspect the settings, maintenance, and repair of elevators is necessary.

Changing trends in sexually transmitted diseases in North Eastern India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaiswal A

2002-01-01

Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs in North Eastern (NE India during 1995 - 1999. The commonest STD was chancroid (25.7% followed by condylomata acuminata (CA, nongonococcal urethritis (NGU, lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV, syphilis, gonorrhoea (GONO, herpes genitalis (HG, mixed infection (MI and balanoposthitis (BP. Interestingly no case of donovanosis (Dono was seen. HIV infection accounted for 9.62% of the total STD patients. A comparison of the present data with that reported a decade back (1986 - 1990 revealed a sharp decline in the incidence of syphilis, chancroid, GONO, whereas a conspicuous upward trend in CA and NGU. Factors responsible for these variations are analysed briefly.

The long-term trends (1982-2006) in vegetation greenness of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Wang, Cuizhen; Ji, Lei; Li, Jing; Wang, Kun; Dai, Lin

2014-01-01

The increased rate of annual temperature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau exceeded all other areas of the same latitude in recent decades. The influence of the warming climate on the alpine ecosystem of the plateau was distinct. An analysis of alpine vegetation under changes in climatic conditions was conducted in this study. This was done through an examination of vegetation greenness and its relationship with climate variability using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite imagery and climate datasets. Vegetation in the plateau experienced a positive trend in greenness, with 18.0 % of the vegetated areas exhibiting significantly positive trends, which were primarily located in the eastern and southwestern parts of the plateau. In grasslands, 25.8 % of meadows and 14.1 % of steppes exhibited significant upward trends. In contrast, the broadleaf forests experienced a trend of degradation. Temperature, particularly summer temperature, was the primary factor promoting the vegetation growth in the plateau. The wetter and warmer climate in the east contributed to the favorable conditions for vegetation. The alpine meadow was mostly sensitive to temperature, while the steppes were sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to vegetation growth in the alpine region, the rising temperature coupled with reduced precipitation in the south did not favor vegetation growth due to low humidity and poor soil moisture conditions.

Upward Mobility Through Job Restructuring. Personnel Management Series No. 26.

Science.gov (United States)

Civil Service Commission, Washington, DC.

The May, 1974, bulletin issued by the Civil Service Commission deals with job restructuring, the process of realigning job duties to develop technician-type or "bridge" jobs in Federal agencies, as a means to provide upward mobility for employees. Besides being highly beneficial to employees in dead end jobs at low grade levels, job restructuring…

Trends of mortality from Alzheimer's disease in the European Union, 1994-2013.

Science.gov (United States)

Niu, H; Alvarez-Alvarez, I; Guillen-Grima, F; Al-Rahamneh, M J; Aguinaga-Ontoso, I

2017-06-01

In many countries, Alzheimer's disease (AD) has gradually become a common disease in elderly populations. The aim of this study was to analyse trends of mortality caused by AD in the 28 member countries in the European Union (EU) over the last two decades. We extracted data for AD deaths for the period 1994-2013 in the EU from the Eurostat and World Health Organization database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 were computed. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse the trends and compute the annual percent change in the EU as a whole and by country. Analyses by gender and by European regions were conducted. Mortality from AD has risen in the EU throughout the study period. Most of the countries showed upward trends, with the sharpest increases in Slovakia, Lithuania and Romania. We recorded statistically significant increases of 4.7% and 6.0% in mortality rates in men and women, respectively, in the whole EU. Several countries showed changing trends during the study period. According to the regional analysis, northern and eastern countries showed the steepest increases, whereas in the latter years mortality has declined in western countries. Our findings provide evidence that AD mortality has increased in the EU, especially in eastern and northern European countries and in the female population. Our results could be a reference for the development of primary prevention policies. © 2017 EAN.

AIMING AT THE TOP - UPWARD SOCIAL-COMPARISON OF ABILITIES AFTER FAILURE

NARCIS (Netherlands)

YBEMA, JF; BUUNK, BP

1993-01-01

This study examined the effects of feedback on a task on information seeking and partner preferences as forms of social comparison. It was predicted that subjects who experienced failure and perceived control over future performance would, for reasons of self-improvement, choose more strongly upward

Estimate of the soil water retention curve from the sorptivity and β parameter calculated from an upward infiltration experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Moret-Fernández, D.; Latorre, B.

2017-01-01

significant influence on the long-time exfiltration curve, which accuracy increased with time. The 1D infiltration model was only suitable for β < 1.7 (sand, loam and silt). After omitting the clay soil, an excellent relationship (R2 = 0.99, p < 0.005) was observed between the theoretical α and n values of the synthetic soils and those estimated from the inverse analysis. Consistent results, with a significant relationship (p < 0.001) between the n values estimated with the pressure cell and the upward infiltration analysis, were also obtained on the experimental soils.

Trends and projections of vehicle crash related fatalities and injuries in Northwest Gondar, Ethiopia: A time series analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes

2014-01-01

Conclusion: The numbers of lives lost and disabilities due to vehicle crashes indicated an upward trend in the last decade showing future burden in terms of societal and economic costs threatening the lives of many individuals. Surveillance systems that could enable to monitor patterns of vehicle crashes with preventive strategies must be established.

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.

2012-01-01

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme

34 CFR 645.20 - How many applications for an Upward Bound award may an eligible applicant submit?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How many applications for an Upward Bound award may an eligible applicant submit? 645.20 Section 645.20 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of... Does One Apply for An Award? § 645.20 How many applications for an Upward Bound award may an eligible...

High Upward Fluxes of Formic Acid from a Boreal Forest Canopy

Science.gov (United States)

Schobesberger, Siegfried; Lopez-Hilifiker, Felipe D.; Taipale, Ditte; Millet, Dylan B.; D'Ambro, Emma L.; Rantala, Pekka; Mammarella, Ivan; Zhou, Putian; Wolfe, Glenn M.; Lee, Ben H.;

77 FR 21089 - Notice of Submission for OMB Review; Application for Grants Under the Upward Bound Math and...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-09

... Upward Bound Math and Science Program AGENCY: Office of Postsecondary Education, Department of Education. SUMMARY: The Upward Bound Math and Science (UBMS) program provides grants to institutions of higher... for success in a program of postsecondary education that lead to careers in math and science. DATES...

Multi-annual changes of NOx emissions in megacity regions: nonlinear trend analysis of satellite measurement based estimates

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J. P. Burrows

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Hazardous impact of air pollutant emissions from megacities on atmospheric composition on regional and global scales is currently an important issue in atmospheric research. However, the quantification of emissions and related effects is frequently a difficult task, especially in the case of developing countries, due to the lack of reliable data and information. This study examines possibilities to retrieve multi-annual NOx emissions changes in megacity regions from satellite measurements of nitrogen dioxide and to quantify them in terms of linear and nonlinear trends. By combining the retrievals of the GOME and SCIAMACHY satellite instrument data with simulations performed by the CHIMERE chemistry transport model, we obtain the time series of NOx emission estimates for the 12 largest urban agglomerations in Europe and the Middle East in the period from 1996 to 2008. We employ then a novel method allowing estimation of a nonlinear trend in a noisy time series of an observed variable. The method is based on the probabilistic approach and the use of artificial neural networks; it does not involve any quantitative a priori assumptions. As a result, statistically significant nonlinearities in the estimated NOx emission trends are detected in 5 megacities (Bagdad, Madrid, Milan, Moscow and Paris. Statistically significant upward linear trends are detected in Istanbul and Tehran, while downward linear trends are revealed in Berlin, London and the Ruhr agglomeration. The presence of nonlinearities in NOx emission changes in Milan, Paris and Madrid is confirmed by comparison of simulated NOx concentrations with independent air quality monitoring data. A good quantitative agreement between the linear trends in the simulated and measured near surface NOx concentrations is found in London.

Description and assessment of regional sea-level trends and variability from altimetry and tide gauges at the northern Australian coast

Science.gov (United States)

Gharineiat, Zahra; Deng, Xiaoli

2018-05-01

This paper aims at providing a descriptive view of the low-frequency sea-level changes around the northern Australian coastline. Twenty years of sea-level observations from multi-mission satellite altimetry and tide gauges are used to characterize sea-level trends and inter-annual variability over the study region. The results show that the interannual sea-level fingerprint in the northern Australian coastline is closely related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, with the greatest influence on the Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, and the Timor Sea. The basin average of 14 tide-gauge time series is in strong agreement with the basin average of the altimeter data, with a root mean square difference of 18 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. The rate of the sea-level trend over the altimetry period (6.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) estimated from tide gauges is slightly higher than that (6.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) from altimetry in the time interval 1993-2013, which can vary with the length of the time interval. Here we provide new insights into examining the significance of sea-level trends by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test is applied to assess if the trends are significant (upward or downward). Apart from a positive rate of sea-level trends are not statistically significant in this region due to the effects of natural variability. The findings suggest that altimetric trends are not significant along the coasts and some parts of the Gulf Carpentaria (14°S-8°S), where geophysical corrections (e.g., ocean tides) cannot be estimated accurately and altimeter measurements are contaminated by reflections from the land.

Tornado frequency in the USA - meteorological and non-meteorological factors of a downward trend

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mihajlović Jovan

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Citing numerical simulations, climate alarmists believe that global warming will lead to more frequent and more intensive tornadoes. Considering temperature increase data in the contiguous USA, this study has investigated the trend of strong tornadoes in F3+ category in the 1954-2012 period. Statistically significant decrease of tornadoes per year at an average rate of 0.44 has been recorded, that is, 4.4 tornadoes per decade. Tornado increase has been recorded with F0 and F1 categories and the cause of this increase lies in meteorological and non-meteorological factors. By using upper and lower standard deviation values, the stages of tornado activity have been singled out. The 1957-1974 period may be considered as an active stage and the 1978-2009 period as an inactive stage. Upward trend of air temperature increase does not correspond with the downward trend of the number of F3+ tornado category, while the correlation coefficient between these two variables is R = −0.14. This fact does not correspond with the simulation results and output data of various numerical models anticipating an increase in the number and intensity of tornado events in the conditions of surface air temperature growth.

Lifting the Veil: A Realist Critique of Sistema's Upwardly Mobile Path

Science.gov (United States)

Logan, Owen

2016-01-01

El Sistema sits somewhere between a social project and a classical music initiative. However, its promise of delivering upward mobility has not been sufficiently examined as a structural phenomenon which dovetails with critical policy issues in taxation, educational provision, human rights, and welfare. This article argues that Sistema-style…

Peritoneal catheter fixation combined with straight upward tunnel and low implant position to prevent catheter malfunction.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qingyan; Jiang, Chunming; Zhu, Wei; Sun, Cheng; Xia, Yangyang; Tang, Tianfeng; Wan, Cheng; Shao, Qiuyuan; Liu, Jing; Jin, Bo; Zhang, Miao

2018-03-01

Catheter malfunction is the main reason for early peritoneal dialysis (PD) technique failure. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of a new surgery technique with catheter fixation to the lower abdominal wall combined with straight upward tunnel and low implant position in reducing catheter malfunction. Patients with end stage renal disease who received PD in our centre from January 2013 to December 2015 were involved in this study. They were randomly divided into three groups according to surgical technique: traditional open surgery group, modified open surgery group and modified open surgery with catheter fixation group. All patients were followed up for six months after surgery. Catheter- related complications were analyzed. A total of 152 patients were involved. Among them, 49 received traditional open surgery (TOS group), 49 received modified open surgery (MOS group), and 54 received modified open surgery with catheter fixation (MOS-F group). During follow-up, no patients (0%) in MOS-F group developed catheter malfunction which was significantly lower than that of the TOS group (0 vs 16.33%, P = 0.002). Although not statistically significant, the incidence of catheter malfunction was lower in MOS-F group than that in MOS group (0 vs 4.08%, P = 0.134). No significant difference was observed in the episodes of infection, bleeding, leakage, inflow or outflow pain, hernia and delayed wound healing among the three groups (all P > 0.05). Catheter fixation combined with straight upward tunnel and low implant position can effectively prevent catheter malfunction in PD catheter placement. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Statistical significance approximation in local trend analysis of high-throughput time-series data using the theory of Markov chains.

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Li C; Ai, Dongmei; Cram, Jacob A; Liang, Xiaoyi; Fuhrman, Jed A; Sun, Fengzhu

2015-09-21

Local trend (i.e. shape) analysis of time series data reveals co-changing patterns in dynamics of biological systems. However, slow permutation procedures to evaluate the statistical significance of local trend scores have limited its applications to high-throughput time series data analysis, e.g., data from the next generation sequencing technology based studies. By extending the theories for the tail probability of the range of sum of Markovian random variables, we propose formulae for approximating the statistical significance of local trend scores. Using simulations and real data, we show that the approximate p-value is close to that obtained using a large number of permutations (starting at time points >20 with no delay and >30 with delay of at most three time steps) in that the non-zero decimals of the p-values obtained by the approximation and the permutations are mostly the same when the approximate p-value is less than 0.05. In addition, the approximate p-value is slightly larger than that based on permutations making hypothesis testing based on the approximate p-value conservative. The approximation enables efficient calculation of p-values for pairwise local trend analysis, making large scale all-versus-all comparisons possible. We also propose a hybrid approach by integrating the approximation and permutations to obtain accurate p-values for significantly associated pairs. We further demonstrate its use with the analysis of the Polymouth Marine Laboratory (PML) microbial community time series from high-throughput sequencing data and found interesting organism co-occurrence dynamic patterns. The software tool is integrated into the eLSA software package that now provides accelerated local trend and similarity analysis pipelines for time series data. The package is freely available from the eLSA website: http://bitbucket.org/charade/elsa.

Trends in reproductive health knowledge following a health education intervention among adolescents in Zimbabwe.

Science.gov (United States)

Rusakaniko, S; Mbizvo, M T; Kasule, J; Gupta, V; Kinoti, S N; Mpanju-Shumbushu, W; Sebina-Zziwa, J; Mwateba, R; Padayachy, J

1997-01-01

Unwanted teenage pregnancy, sexually transmitted infections and the attendant morbidity and mortality necessitate the need for understanding factors influencing adolescent sexuality and the implementation of programmes designed to improve their knowledge, reproductive behaviour, sexual and reproductive health. To determine the impact of an intervention package on knowledge levels of various reproductive health issues through trend analysis. Randomized controlled trial of a health education intervention in schools stratified for representativeness. Rural and urban secondary schools in Zimbabwe. 1,689 students recruited from 11 secondary schools in Mashonaland Central. Knowledge level before and after intervention. The demographic characteristics of the pupils at baseline, five months and nine months were comparable between the two groups. There was an overall increase in knowledge on menstruation. Students from the intervention schools were more likely to have correct knowledge over time on aspects of reproductive biology. A significant linear trend (p = 0.017) was observed in the area of family planning and contraception. A linear decreasing trend (p = 0.001) was observed on pregnancy risk. Though not significantly linear, the general trend of knowledge levels in all the areas of reproductive health, pregnancy risk, STDs and HIV/AIDS showed an upward trend, from 20% to 96%. Worth noting was that in all the areas the intervention group had knowledge above that in the control group. The reproductive health education intervention had an impact on aspects of reproductive biology and contraception as measured by the increased scoring at follow up when comparing intervention and control schools. The overall findings point to the need for early school based reproductive health education programmes incooperating correct information on reproductive biology and the prevention of subsequent reproductive morbidity by imparting information on non-risk behaviour during the early

Upward Feedback and Its Contribution to Employees' Feeling of Self-Determination

Science.gov (United States)

Bauer, Johannes; Mulder, Regina H.

2006-01-01

Purpose--The paper seeks to show that self-determination is a widely regarded motivational variable in educational research that relates to intrinsically motivated, self-directed learning at work. This study aimed to find out whether the possibility to provide upward feedback to supervisors contributes to employees' feelings of self-determination.…

Trend of Elevator-Related Accidents in Tehran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Khaji

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background:   Elevator-related accidents are uncommon, but can cause significant injury. However, little data exist on these types of accidents. To compile and analyze accident data involving elevators in an effort to eliminate or at least significantly reduce such accidents. Methods: In this retrospective study we investigated 1,819 cases of elevator-related accidents during a four-year period (1999-2003 in Tehran. The data were obtained from the Tehran Safety Services & Fire Fighting Organization (TSFO that is officially and solely responsible to conduct rescue missions of civilians in Tehran. Results: The number of elevator accidents has increased steadily during the four year study period. During these four years here was a positive upward trend for serious injuries and mortality resulting from elevator accidents. Technical problems were the main cause with 74.5%, followed by power loss and overcapacity riding with 11.5% and 7.9%respectively. Sixty-three individuals sustained serious injury and 15 people died as a result of elevator accidents. The number of accidents was significantly higher in summer (x2=18.32, P=0.032 and a considerable proportion of incidences (54%, 947 cases out of 1819 occurred between 5 and 12 pm. Conclusions: Establishment of an organization to inspect the settings, maintenance, and repair of elevators is necessary

Mixing of high density solution in vertical upward flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumamaru, Hiroshige; Hosogi, Nobuyoshi; Komada, Toshiaki; Fujiwara, Yoshiki

1999-01-01

Experimental and analytical studies have been performed in order to provide fundamental data and a numerical calculation model on the mixing of boric acid solution, injected from the standby liquid control system (SLCS), under a low natural circulation flow during an ATWS in a BWR. First, fundamental experiments on the mixing of high-density solution in vertically-upward water flow have been performed by using a small apparatus. Mixing patterns observed in the experiments have been classified to two groups, i.e. complete mixing (entrainment) and incomplete mixing (entrainment). In the complete mixing, the injected high-density solution is mixed (entrained) completely into the vertically-upward water flow. From the experiments, the minimum water flow rates in which the complete mixing (entrainment) is achieved have been obtained for various solution densities and solution injection rates. Secondly, two-dimensional numerical calculations have been performed. A continuity equation for total fluid, momentum equations in two directions and a continuity equation for solute are solved by using the finite difference method for discretization method and by following the MAC method for solution procedure. The calculations have predicted nearly the minimum water flow rate in which the complete mixing is achieved, while the calculations have been performed only for one combination of the solution density and solution injection rate until now. (author)

Air-water upward flow in prismatic channel of rectangular base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carvalho Tofani, P. de.

1984-01-01

Experiments had carried out to investigate the two-phase upward air-water flow structure, in a rectangular test section, by using independent measuring techniques, which comprise direct viewing and photography, electrical probes and gamma-ray attenuation. Flow pattern maps and correlations for flow pattern transitions, void fraction profiles, liquid film thickness and superficial average void fraction are proposed and compared to available data. (Author) [pt

A 9-year analysis of bibliographical trends for journals in the subject category of general and internal medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Foo, Jong Yong Abdiel

2009-05-01

For academic research outcomes, an important bibliometric scoring termed as the journal impact factor (JIF) is used when assessment of the quality of research is required. No known study has been conducted to explore the bibliographical trends of 'Medicine, General & Internal' journals indexed by the annual Journal Citation Reports. Data from the Journal Citation Reports and Web of Science database were extracted to formulate a comprehensive analysis. In this study, the trends of 15 journals (5 top ranked and 10 low ranked; 5 English and 5 non-English based) were selected and analysed over a 9-year period (starting from year 1999 to 2007). Using the year 1999 as the base year, the results showed that the JIF rose significantly for the selected top ranked journals (up to 180.9%) while the low ranked ones slipped in their JIF value (down to -44.4%). The observed upward or downward trend was caused by a combination of other bibliographical measures like citations, number of citable, and total items published. It is postulated that changes in bibliographical trends can be classified as editorial and non-editorial influences. The impacts of these influences on the 15 selected journals over the 9-year period were also discussed retrospectively.

Past and recent trends in the western Black Sea storminess

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. N. Valchev

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Storms are one of the most important phenomena producing coastal hazards and endangering human life and activities. In recent decades storm climate has become a subject of increased public awareness and knowledge of this issue can help the society to meet future challenges related to extreme storm manifestation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to assess trends in past and recent storminess in the western Black Sea. The analysis of storm climate is based on a continuous hindcast dataset covering a substantial historical time-span of 63 yr (1948–2010. It was used to create a storm population and to estimate properties describing storminess (proxies. This was done by introduction of criteria allowing separation of events with low probability of occurrence and at the same time keeping the information on their pattern, i.e. properties of storm phases. Eleven storminess proxies were analysed and the most indicative appeared to be storm duration; integral, mean and specific storm wave energy; and wind velocity and direction, which were obtained for each storm season.

While experiencing significant variability on a quasi-decadal scale, no significant upward or downward trends in storminess were detected. For almost all proxies, an increasing trend until the 1980s or the 1990s and a return to average or even calm conditions in the late 2000s are traceable. On this background, a steady although not significant increase of wind velocity was detected. Results also indicate an alteration of storm pattern, manifested as shortening of storm duration due to a shift of the prevailing direction of storm forcing winds to the north. Nevertheless, incident wave energy in the storms' most intense phase remains significant. The obtained results are discussed with regard to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the hydrometeorological pattern of the Black Sea region as a part of the European-Atlantic area, in particular with respect to the

Trends in darunavir resistance-associated mutations and phenotypic resistance in commercially tested United States clinical samples between 2006 and 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Lathouwers, Erkki; Gupta, Soumi; Haddad, Mojgan; Paquet, Agnes; de Meyer, Sandra; Baugh, Bryan

2015-06-01

HIV-1 samples submitted by clinicians from the United States for routine drug susceptibility testing (PhenoSense GT) were evaluated for genotypic and phenotypic resistance to darunavir and other protease inhibitors (PIs). Among these samples (Monogram Biosciences database January 2006-June 2012; N=78,843), isolates harboring zero IAS-USA darunavir resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) increased from 77.7% in 2006 to 92.8% through the first half of 2012 (H1 2012; upward trend, p=0.0008); a downward trend seen for samples with three or more darunavir RAMs (7.5% in 2006 and 2.6% in H1 2012; p=0.002). Among samples with any PI resistance (N=15,932), samples harboring zero darunavir RAMs gradually increased (39.9% in 2006 vs. 55.0% in H1 2012; upward trend, p=0.005), but three or more darunavir RAMs did not change over time (21.7% in 2006 and 19.2% in H1 2012; p=0.27). During this period, the frequency of the 11 individual darunavir RAMs (IAS-USA 2011 list) decreased among all samples. The frequency of each darunavir RAM in PI-resistant samples decreased or remained relatively stable. The prevalence of samples with phenotypic resistance to darunavir (partial-to-full) decreased over time in all samples (8.2% in 2006 vs. 2.3% in H1 2012), as did resistance to other PIs (p<0.006 for all PIs). Phenotypic resistance to darunavir and other PIs also decreased in PI-resistant samples (darunavir: 23.9% in 2006 vs. 17.1% in H1 2012; p<0.013 for all PIs). Since approval of darunavir in 2006, there was a significant decrease in prevalence of samples with genotypic and phenotypic resistance to darunavir in commercially tested HIV-1 isolates. Furthermore, the prevalence of phenotypic resistance to darunavir was lower than all other PIs.

Underlying mechanism of precursory activity from analysis of upward earthquake migration

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. A. Molchanov

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper we analyse the upward earthquake hypocentral migration in the ten known subduction zones and discuss a possible mechanism of such migration. The total time of the migration appears to range from 2.5 to 10 years. It leads to the estimation of the average velocity V_z~ 60−300 km yr⁻¹. It probably corresponds to the movement of the forcing agent like stress or deformation wave from depths of the upper mantle (600–700 km to the level of the lithosphere with subsequent initiation of fluid migration inside the crust to trigger shallow earthquakes. Averaged over all zones upward migration travel time is about 5 years (< V_z > ≈120 km yr⁻¹ that coincides approximately with the period of characteristic temperature variation (El Nino and crustal seismic periodicity in the Pacific region. These findings are helpful for the study of the seismic precursors and analysis of earthquake triggering.

UPWARD POWER TENDENCIES IN A HIERARCHY - POWER DISTANCE THEORY VERSUS BUREAUCRATIC RULE

NARCIS (Netherlands)

WILKE, HAM

1993-01-01

Two contrasting notions concerning upward power tendencies within hierarchically structured groups are investigated. Power Distance Theory assumes that people have a desire for power that results in a tendency to reduce the power distance towards a more powerful other, and this tendency is assumed

Assessing the gap in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology: trends over a 20-year period.

Science.gov (United States)

McKenzie, Kristopher; Ramonas, Milita; Patlas, Michael; Katz, Douglas S

2017-12-01

To examine trends in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology from January 1994 to December 2014. We obtained institutional review board approval for our study. We retrospectively reviewed a total of 1617 articles published in the journal Emergency Radiology over a 20-year period. Original articles, case reports, review articles, and pictorial essays were included. The first and last position author's gender was categorized as female or male. We analyzed trends by comparing the first and last position authors of original articles from the first and last year reviewed. We utilized Chi-square test for statistical analysis, with a p value gender of 96% of the authors. Overall, female authors were 21% of first position authors (290 of 1368) and 15% of last position authors (183 of 1246). Thirty-two percent of articles with female last position authors also had female first position authors (58 of 183). There was a statistically significant increase in female last position authors, from 12.9% in 1994 to 21.3% in 2014 (p = 0.026), a non-significant increase in female first position authors, from 17.5% in 1994 to 20.9% in 2014 (p = 0.514), and a non-significant increase in articles with both a first and last female author, from 25% in 1994 to 35% in 2014 (p = 0.593). Over the last 20 years, there has been a statistically significant upward trend in female last position authors publishing in the journal Emergency Radiology.

Time trend of smoking scenes in Iranian movies during the past three decades (1982-2011): a historical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Heydari, Gholamreza; Ebn Ahmady, Arezoo; Lando, Harry A; Chamyani, Fahimeh; Masjedi, Mohammad Reza; Shadmehr, Mohammad B; Fadaizadeh, Lida; Chaibakhsh, Samira

2016-09-01

Evidence from the USA and elsewhere has linked smoking depictions in movies with youth smoking initiation. Prior research has not focused on depictions in films produced in the Middle East, however. We reviewed the 10 most commercially successful Iranian films released each year over three decades (1982-2011) to determine trends in depictions of tobacco use over time. Each movie was reviewed in its entirety, and depictions of smoking were recorded and classified as direct (characters holding or using tobacco products) and indirect (tobacco products appearing in the frame, but not being used). Time trends in average duration of direct, indirect and total smoking depictions were analysed using linear regression and Cohen's κ coefficient. The mean duration of tobacco depictions in the most commercially successful Iranian films fluctuated yearly over the 3 decades, but with an overall significant upward trend (pfilm industry to minimise this important source of influence on tobacco initiation in young people. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Experimental detection of upward-going cosmic particles and consequences for correction of density radiography of volcanoes

Science.gov (United States)

Jourde, Kevin; Gibert, Dominique; Marteau, Jacques; de Bremond d'Ars, Jean; Gardien, Serge; Girerd, Claude; Ianigro, Jean-Christophe; Carbone, Daniele

2014-05-01

Muon tomography measures the flux of cosmic muons crossing geological bodies to determine their density. Three acquisitions with different sights of view were made at la soufrière de Guadeloupe. All of them show important density fluctuations and reveal the volcano phreatic system. The telescopes used to perform these measurements are exposed to noise fluxes with high intensities relative to the tiny flux of interest. We give experimental evidences ofa so far never described source of noise caused by a flux of upward-going particles. Data acquired on La soufrière of Guadeloupe and Mount Etna reveal that upward-going particles are detected only when the rear side of the telescope is exposed to a wide volume of atmosphere located below the altitude of the telescope and with a rock obstruction less than several tens of meters. Biases produced on density muon radiographies by upward-going fluxes are quantified and correction procedures are applied to radiographies of la soufrière.

On the Upward Bias of the Dissimilarity Index and Its Corrections

Science.gov (United States)

Mazza, Angelo; Punzo, Antonio

2015-01-01

The dissimilarity index of Duncan and Duncan is widely used in a broad range of contexts to assess the overall extent of segregation in the allocation of two groups in two or more units. Its sensitivity to random allocation implies an upward bias with respect to the unknown amount of systematic segregation. In this article, following a multinomial…

The collective roots and rewards of upward educational mobility.

Science.gov (United States)

Shahrokni, Shirin

2018-02-02

Drawing on in-depth interviews with descendants of North African working-class immigrants admitted to elite higher institutions in France, this paper investigates the under-researched role of family dynamics in facilitating upward educational mobility and informing the experience of social ascension. It shows that concrete mobility strategies, such as authoritative parenting and close mentorship from older siblings have been deployed to enable the respondents' educational attainment. Moreover, a set of moral resources transmitted through stories about family-rooted aspirations and stories about post-migration hardships and sacrifices have contributed to forging strong motivational dispositions that have facilitated school success among the respondents. These resources have further shaped the symbolic significance the interviewees associate with mobility. In contrast with the dominant individual-centred narrative of success, for second-generation North African immigrants, mobility represents a powerful way of 'giving back' to former-generation migrants whose mobility dreams often had to be relinquished. The respondents also position themselves as role-models for other youths of racially and socially disadvantaged backgrounds: their mobility pathways are described as vital for collective advancements particularly through the sense of minority empowerment these generate. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2018.

Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration (case study: west and NW of Iran)

Science.gov (United States)

Dinpashoh, Y.; Jahanbakhsh-Asl, S.; Rasouli, A. A.; Foroughi, M.; Singh, V. P.

2018-04-01

Potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is one of the main elements when computing agricultural irrigation requirements and scheduling. All climatic parameters as well as ET0 are influenced by climate change. The aim of this study is trend analysis of monthly and annual ET0 time series in the west and NW of Iran. Values of ET0 are estimated at 36 selected stations, using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method. Then, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) method was used to detect trends. The slopes of trend lines are estimated using Sen's estimator approach. Results showed that about 86%of the monthly ET0 time series had upward trends of which 35.6 and 43% were significant at 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively, 47.4% exhibited a significant upward trend at the 10% level. In contrast, less than 0.7% of the whole monthly ET0 time series showed a significant downward trend (α water in a prudent manner in this area.

Landsat-based Analysis of Mountain Forest-tundra Ecotone Response to Climate Trends in Sayan Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Kharuk, Viatcheslav I.; Im, Sergey T.; Ranson, K. Jon

2007-01-01

observations of temperatures Siberia has shown a several degree warming over the past 30 years. It is expected that forest will respond to warming at high latitudes through increased tree growth and northward or upward slope migration. migration. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. Making repeated satellite observations over several decades provides an opportunity to track vegetation response to climate change. Based on Landsat data of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure and an upward tree-line shift in the of the forest-tundra ecotone during the last quarter of the 2oth century,. On-ground observations, supporting these results, also showed regeneration of Siberian pine in the alpine tundra, and the transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal (upright) forms. During this time period sparse stands transformed into closed stands, with existing closed stands increasing in area at a rate of approx. 1 %/yr, and advancing their upper border at a vertical rate of approx. 1.0 m/yr. In addition, the vertical rate of regeneration propagation is approx. 5 m/yr. It was also found that these changes correlated positively with temperature trends

An improved model to determine the inception of positive upward leader–streamer system considering the leader propagation during dark period

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Shijun; He Junjia; Chen Weijiang

2013-01-01

Stem–leader transition and front-streamer inception are two essential conditions for the inception of positive upward leader–streamer system (LSS). Previous models have not considered the initial-leader propagation during dark period and have not been verified systematically. In this paper, a series of positive upward discharge simulation experiments was designed and carried out. Characteristic parameters of the discharge process related to the inception of positive upward LSS, namely, the first-corona inception voltage, the first-corona charge, the dark period, and the LSS inception voltage, were obtained. By comparing these experiment results with simulation results calculated using previous models, it was found that it is improper to assume that the length of the initial leader is a fixed value. Finally, an improved inception model of positive upward LSS considering the leader propagation during dark period was developed and verified with experiment results.

Influence of Mining Thickness on the Rationality of Upward Mining in Coal Seam Group

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Li

2016-04-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the influence of mining thickness on the rationality of upward mining in coal seam group. Numerical simulation and theoretical analysis were performed to investigate the influence of the mining thicknesses of initial mining seam on the destruction and pressure relief effect of the upper coal seam in a high-gas coal seam group. The mechanical model of the roof failure based on the mining thickness was established by assuming that the gob formed after adjacent panels have fully been caved is the infinite plane. On the basis of this model, an equation was derived to calculate the roof failure height of the panel. Considering the geological conditions of No. 9 and No. 12 coal seams of Zhaogezhuang Coal Mine, economic effectiveness, and proposed techniques, we concluded that the top layer (4 m of the No. 12 coal seam should be mined first. The top layer of the No. 9 coal seam should be subsequently mined. The topcaving technique was applied to the exploitation of the lower layer of the No. 12 coal seam. Practically monitored data revealed that the deformation and failure of the No. 2699 panel roadway was small and controllable, the amount of gas emission was reduced significantly, and the effect of upward mining was active. The results of this study provide theory basics for mine designing, and it is the provision of a reference for safe and efficient coal exploitation under similar conditions.

Divergent mortality trends by ethnicity in Fiji.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Richard; Carter, Karen; Naidu, Shivnay; Linhart, Christine; Azim, Syed; Rao, Chalapati; Lopez, Alan D

2013-12-01

To examine trends in infant mortality rate (IMR), adult mortality and life expectancy (LE) in the two major Fijian ethnic groups since 1975. Estimates of IMR, adult mortality (15-59 years) and LE by ethnicity are calculated from previously unreported Fiji Ministry of Health data and extracted from published sources. Over 1975-2008: IMR decreased from 33 to 20 deaths/1,000 live births in i-Taukei (Fiji Melanesians); and 38 to 18 in Fijians of Indian descent. Increased adult male mortality among i-Taukei and decline among Fijians of Indian descent led to an equal probability of dying in 2007 of 29%; while in female adults the probability trended upwards in i-Taukei to 25%, and declined in Fijians of Indian descent to 17%. Life expectancy in both ethnicities increased until 1985 (to 64 years for males; 68 for females) then forming a plateau in males of both ethnicities, and Fijian females of Indian descent, but declining in i-Taukei females to 66 years in 2007. Despite IMR declines over 1975-2008, LE for i-Taukei and Fijians of Indian descent has not increased since 1985, and has actually decreased in i-Taukei women, consistent with trends in adult mortality (15-59 years). Mortality analyses in Fiji that consider the entire population mask divergent trends in the major ethnic groups. This situation is most likely a consequence of non-communicable disease mortality, requiring further assessment and a strengthened response.

Summer Upward Bound, Terre Haute, Indiana. Secondary Program in Compensatory Education, 4.

Science.gov (United States)

American Institutes for Research in the Behavioral Sciences, Palo Alto, CA.

Upward Bound was a precollege program geared for high school students with potential who had been handicapped by economic, cultural, and educational deprivation. It involved a full-time summer program and follow-up programs (counseling, cultural activities, and physical education) during the academic year. Students stayed in the program for three…

Upward Appraisal: A Tool for the Continuous Improvement of Library Managers' Skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Stein, Joan E.

Effective management and the importance of feedback in relation to improvement are becoming critical issues for libraries. Upward appraisal evaluates managers' performance based on input from their staff, rather than the traditional top-down evaluation format in which a manager is evaluated solely by their superior. This paper discusses the…

Trends and Divergences in Childhood Income Dynamics, 1970-2010.

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Heather D

2018-01-01

Earnings and income variability have increased since the 1970s, particularly at the bottom of the income distribution. Considerable evidence suggests that childhood income levels-captured as average or point-in-time yearly income-are associated with numerous child and adult outcomes. The importance to child development of stable proximal processes during childhood suggests that income variability may also be important, particularly if it is unpredictable, unintentional, or does not reflect an upward trend in family income. Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study documents trends since the 1970s in three dimensions of childhood income dynamics: level, variability, and growth (n=7991). The analysis reveals that income variability during childhood has grown over time, while income growth rates have not. In addition, the economic context of childhood has diverged substantially by socioeconomic status, race, and family structure, with the most disadvantaged children facing a double-whammy of low income and high variability. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Macro-indicators of citation impacts of six prolific countries: InCites data and the statistical significance of trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lutz Bornmann

Full Text Available Using the InCites tool of Thomson Reuters, this study compares normalized citation impact values calculated for China, Japan, France, Germany, United States, and the UK throughout the time period from 1981 to 2010. InCites offers a unique opportunity to study the normalized citation impacts of countries using (i a long publication window (1981 to 2010, (ii a differentiation in (broad or more narrow subject areas, and (iii allowing for the use of statistical procedures in order to obtain an insightful investigation of national citation trends across the years. Using four broad categories, our results show significantly increasing trends in citation impact values for France, the UK, and especially Germany across the last thirty years in all areas. The citation impact of papers from China is still at a relatively low level (mostly below the world average, but the country follows an increasing trend line. The USA exhibits a stable pattern of high citation impact values across the years. With small impact differences between the publication years, the US trend is increasing in engineering and technology but decreasing in medical and health sciences as well as in agricultural sciences. Similar to the USA, Japan follows increasing as well as decreasing trends in different subject areas, but the variability across the years is small. In most of the years, papers from Japan perform below or approximately at the world average in each subject area.

Warming-induced upward migration of the alpine treeline in the Changbai Mountains, northeast China.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Haibo; Liu, Jie; Li, Mai-He; Büntgen, Ulf; Yang, Yue; Wang, Lei; Wu, Zhengfang; He, Hong S

2018-03-01

Treeline responses to environmental changes describe an important phenomenon in global change research. Often conflicting results and generally too short observations are, however, still challenging our understanding of climate-induced treeline dynamics. Here, we use a state-of-the-art dendroecological approach to reconstruct long-term changes in the position of the alpine treeline in relation to air temperature at two sides in the Changbai Mountains in northeast China. Over the past 160 years, the treeline increased by around 80 m, a process that can be divided into three phases of different rates and drives. The first phase was mainly influenced by vegetation recovery after an eruption of the Tianchi volcano in 1702. The slowly upward shift in the second phase was consistent with the slowly increasing temperature. The last phase coincided with rapid warming since 1985, and shows with 33 m per 1°C, the most intense upward shift. The spatial distribution and age structure of trees beyond the current treeline confirm the latest, warming-induced upward shift. Our results suggest that the alpine treeline will continue to rise, and that the alpine tundra may disappear if temperatures will increase further. This study not only enhances mechanistic understanding of long-term treeline dynamics, but also highlights the effects of rising temperatures on high-elevation vegetation dynamics. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

Science.gov (United States)

Hollmann, E. M.; Commaux, N.; Eidietis, N. W.; Lasnier, C. J.; Moyer, R. A.; Parks, P. B.; Shiraki, D.

2015-10-01

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but this phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect.

Mitigation of upward and downward vertical displacement event heat loads with upper or lower massive gas injection in DIII-D

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hollmann, E. M.; Moyer, R. A.; Commaux, N.; Shiraki, D.; Eidietis, N. W.; Parks, P. B.; Lasnier, C. J.

2015-01-01

Intentionally triggered upward and downward vertical displacement events (VDEs) leading to disruptions were pre-emptively mitigated with neon massive gas injection (MGI) coming from either above or below the plasma. Global indicators of disruption mitigation effectiveness (conducted heat loads, radiated power, and vessel motion) do not show a clear improvement when mitigating with the gas jet located closer to the VDE impact area. A clear trend of improved mitigation is observed for earlier MGI timing relative to the VDE impact time. The plasma edge magnetic perturbation is seen to lock to a preferential phase during the VDE thermal quench, but this phase is not clearly matched by preliminary attempts to fit to the conducted heat load phase. Clear indications of plasma infra-red (IR) emission are observed both before and during the disruptions. This IR emission can affect calculation of disruption heat loads; here, the time decay of post-disruption IR signals is used to correct for this effect

Trends and correlates of marijuana use among late middle-aged and older adults in the United States, 2002-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Salas-Wright, Christopher P; Vaughn, Michael G; Cummings-Vaughn, Lenise A; Holzer, Katherine J; Nelson, Erik J; AbiNader, Millan; Oh, Sehun

2017-02-01

Recent trend studies suggest that marijuana use is on the rise among the general population of adults ages 18 and older in the United States. However, little is known about the trends in marijuana use and marijuana-specific risk/protective factors among American adults during the latter part of adulthood. Findings are based on repeated, cross-sectional data collected from late middle-aged (ages 50-64) and older adults (ages 65 and older) surveyed as part of the National Survey on Drug Use and Health between 2002 and 2014. The prevalence of past-year marijuana use among late middle-aged adults increased significantly from a low of 2.95% in 2003 to a high of 9.08% in 2014. Similarly, the prevalence of marijuana use increased significantly among older adults from a low of 0.15% in 2003 to a high of 2.04% in 2014. Notably, the upward trends in marijuana use remained significant even when accounting for sociodemographic, substance use, behavioral, and health-related factors. We also found that decreases in marijuana-specific protective factors were associated with the observed trend changes in marijuana use among late middle-aged and older adults, and observed a weakening of the association between late-middle aged marijuana use and risk propensity, other illicit drug use, and criminal justice system involvement over the course of the study. Findings from the present study provide robust evidence indicating that marijuana use among older Americans has increased markedly in recent years, with the most evident changes observed between 2008 and 2014. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Upwardly Mobile: Attitudes toward the Class Transition among First-Generation College Students

Science.gov (United States)

Hinz, Serena E.

2016-01-01

First-generation, working-class college students are on the path to upward mobility and may have social and psychological problems related to cultural differences between the working class and the middle class. In her study, Hurst (2007, 2010) reports that students of working-class origin often choose loyalty to one class. However, I revise…

Analysis of the development trend of China’s business administration based on time series

OpenAIRE

Jiang Rui

2016-01-01

On the general direction of the economic system, China is in a crucial period of the establishment of the modern enterprise system and reform of the macroeconomic system, and a lot of high-quality business administration talents are required to make China’s economy be stably developed. This paper carries out time series analysis of the development situation of China’s business administration major: on the whole, the society currently presents an upward trend on the demand for the business adm...

Detection of field significant long-term monotonic trends in spring yields

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Ledvinka, O.; Lamačová, Anna

2015-01-01

Roč. 29, č. 5 (2015), s. 1463-1484 ISSN 1436-3240 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Cross-correlation * Groundwater monitoring * Serial correlation * Spring yields * Trend analysis Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 2.237, year: 2015

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2017-04-01

This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

Abrupt recent trend changes in atmospheric nitrogen dioxide over the Middle East

KAUST Repository

Lelieveld, J.

2015-08-21

Nitrogen oxides, released from fossil fuel use and other combustion processes, affect air quality and climate. From the mid-1990s onward, nitrogen dioxide (NO2) has been monitored from space, and since 2004 with relatively high spatial resolution by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. Strong upward NO2 trends have been observed over South and East Asia and the Middle East, in particular over major cities. We show, however, that a combination of air quality control and political factors, including economical crisis and armed conflict, has drastically altered the emission landscape of nitrogen oxides in the Middle East. Large changes, including trend reversals, have occurred since about 2010 that could not have been predicted and therefore are at odds with emission scenarios used in projections of air pollution and climate change in the early 21st century.

Trends in dermatology practices and the implications for the workforce.

Science.gov (United States)

Ehrlich, Alison; Kostecki, James; Olkaba, Helen

2017-10-01

The American Academy of Dermatology (AAD) practice profile surveys have been conducted for more than a decade to gauge trends in our workforce supply and demand. To update the trends and current workforce issues for the field of dermatology. The AAD Practice Profile Survey is sent by both e-mail and postal mail to a random sample of practicing dermatologists who are AAD members. Shifts are noted in the primary practice setting; fewer dermatologists are in solo practice and more are in group practices than in previous years. Teledermatology use trended upward from 7% to 11% between 2012 and 2014. The implementation of electronic health records increased from 51% in 2011 to 70% in 2014. There is potential for response bias and inaccurate self-reporting. Survey responses collected may not be representative of all geographic areas. The demand for dermatology services remains strong. Shifts in the practice setting may be related to increases in overhead costs that are partially associated with the implementation of technology-based medical records. Integration of electronic health records and utilization of telemedicine are increasing. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

77 FR 37016 - Applications for New Awards: Upward Bound Math and Science Program

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-20

... DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION Applications for New Awards: Upward Bound Math and Science Program AGENCY... Bound Math and Science Program. Notice inviting applications for new awards for fiscal year (FY) 2012.... There are three types of grants under the UB Program: regular UB grants, Veterans UB grants, and UB Math...

Openness to Experience as a Predictor and Outcome of Upward Job Changes into Managerial and Professional Positions

Science.gov (United States)

Nieß, Christiane; Zacher, Hannes

2015-01-01

In industrial and organizational psychology, there is a long tradition of studying personality as an antecedent of work outcomes. Recently, however, scholars have suggested that personality characteristics may not only predict, but also change due to certain work experiences, a notion that is depicted in the dynamic developmental model (DDM) of personality and work. Upward job changes are an important part of employees’ careers and career success in particular, and we argue that these career transitions can shape personality over time. In this study, we investigate the Big Five personality characteristics as both predictors and outcomes of upward job changes into managerial and professional positions. We tested our hypotheses by applying event history analyses and propensity score matching to a longitudinal dataset collected over five years from employees in Australia. Results indicated that participants’ openness to experience not only predicted, but that changes in openness to experience also followed from upward job changes into managerial and professional positions. Our findings thus provide support for a dynamic perspective on personality characteristics in the context of work and careers. PMID:26110527

Downstream lightening and upward heavying, sorting of sediments of uniform grain size but differing in density

Science.gov (United States)

Viparelli, E.; Solari, L.; Hill, K. M.

2014-12-01

Downstream fining, i.e. the tendency for a gradual decrease in grain size in the downstream direction, has been observed and studied in alluvial rivers and in laboratory flumes. Laboratory experiments and field observations show that the vertical sorting pattern over a small Gilbert delta front is characterized by an upward fining profile, with preferential deposition of coarse particles in the lowermost part of the deposit. The present work is an attempt to answer the following questions. Are there analogous sorting patterns in mixtures of sediment particles having the same grain size but differing density? To investigate this, we performed experiments at the Hydrosystems Laboratory at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. During the experiments a Gilbert delta formed and migrated downstream allowing for the study of transport and sorting processes on the surface and within the deposit. The experimental results show 1) preferential deposition of heavy particles in the upstream part of the deposit associated with a pattern of "downstream lightening"; and 2) a vertical sorting pattern over the delta front characterized by a pattern of "upward heavying" with preferential deposition of light particles in the lowermost part of the deposit. The observed downstream lightening is analogous of the downstream fining with preferential deposition of heavy (coarse) particles in the upstream part of the deposit. The observed upward heavying was unexpected because, considering the particle mass alone, the heavy (coarse) particles should have been preferentially deposited in the lowermost part of the deposit. Further, the application of classical fractional bedload transport relations suggests that in the case of mixtures of particles of uniform size and different densities equal mobility is not approached. We hypothesize that granular physics mechanisms traditionally associated with sheared granular flows may be responsible for the observed upward heavying and for the

Relativistic self-focusing of ultra-high intensity X-ray laser beams in warm quantum plasma with upward density profile

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habibi, M.; Ghamari, F.

2014-01-01

The results of a numerical study of high-intensity X-ray laser beam interaction with warm quantum plasma (WQP) are presented. By means of an upward ramp density profile combined with quantum factors specially the Fermi velocity, we have demonstrated significant relativistic self-focusing (RSF) of a Gaussian electromagnetic beam in the WQP where the Fermi temperature term in the dielectric function is important. For this purpose, we have considered the quantum hydrodynamics model that modifies refractive index of inhomogeneous WQPs with the inclusion of quantum correction through the quantum statistical and diffraction effects in the relativistic regime. Also, to better illustration of the physical difference between warm and cold quantum plasmas and their effect on the RSF, we have derived the envelope equation governing the spot size of X-ray laser beam in Q-plasmas. In addition to the upward ramp density profile, we have found that the quantum effects would be caused much higher oscillation and better focusing of X-ray laser beam in the WQP compared to that of cold quantum case. Our computational results reveal the importance of the use of electrons density profile and Fermi speed in enhancing self-focusing of laser beam

Cover Image Innate or learned preference for upward-facing flowers?: implications for the costs of pendent flowers from experiments on captive bumble bees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takashi T Makino

2012-10-01

Full Text Available Pollinator preferences for phenotypic characters, including floral orientation, can affect plant reproductive success. For example, hawkmoths and syrphid flies prefer upward- over downward-facing flowers in field experiments. Although such preferences suggest a cost of pendent flowers in terms of pollinator attraction, we cannot rule out the possibility that the preferences have been affected by prior experience: pollinators might choose the same type of flowers to which they have already become accustomed. To test for innate preference, we observed bumble bees foraging on an array of upward- and downward-facing artificial flowers. Without any prior experience with vertical flowers, 91.7% bees chose an upward-facing flower at the very first visit. In addition to this innate preference, we also found that the preference was strengthened by experience, which suggests that the bees learned upward-facing flowers were easier to handle. Although bumble bees may concentrate on pendent flowers in the field, such learned preferences are evidently imposed on a template of upward-facing preference. Because bee-pollinated pendent flowers face particular difficulties in attracting visits, therefore, we expect them to compensate through other means, such as greater floral rewards.

Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

Parametric trends analysis of the critical heat flux based on artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moon, S.K.; Baek, W.P.; Chang, S.H.

1996-01-01

Parametric trends of the critical heat flux (CHF) are analyzed by applying artificial neural networks (ANNs) to a CHF data base for upward flow of water in uniformly heated vertical round tubes. The analyses are performed from three viewpoints, i.e., for fixed inlet conditions, for fixed exit conditions, and based on local conditions hypothesis. Katto's and Groeneveld et al. dimensionless parameters are used to train the ANNs with the experimental CHF data. The trained ANNs predict the CHF better than any other conventional correlations, showing RMS errors of 8.9%, 13.1% and 19.3% for fixed inlet conditions, for fixed exit conditions, and for local conditions hypothesis, respectively. The parametric trends of the CHF obtained from those trained ANNs show a general agreement with previous understanding. In addition, this study provides more comprehensive information and indicates interesting points for the effects of the tube diameter, the heated length, and the mass flux. It is expected that better understanding of the parametric trends is feasible with an extended data base. (orig.)

Racial Inequality Trends and the Intergenerational Persistence of Income and Family Structure

Science.gov (United States)

Bloome, Deirdre

2015-01-01

Racial disparity in family incomes remained remarkably stable over the past 40 years in the United States despite major legal and social reforms. Previous scholarship presents two primary explanations for persistent inequality through a period of progressive change. One highlights continuity: because socioeconomic status is transmitted from parents to children, disparities created through histories of discrimination and opportunity denial may dissipate slowly. The second highlights change: because family income results from joining individual earnings in family units, changing family compositions can offset individuals’ changing economic chances. I examine whether black-white family income inequality trends are better characterized by the persistence of existing disadvantage (continuity) or shifting forms of disadvantage (change). I combine cross-sectional and panel analysis using Current Population Survey, Panel Study of Income Dynamics, Census, and National Vital Statistics data. Results suggest that African Americans experience relatively extreme intergenerational continuity (low upward mobility) and discontinuity (high downward mobility); both helped maintain racial inequality. Yet, intergenerational discontinuities allow new forms of disadvantage to emerge. On net, racial inequality trends are better characterized by changing forms of disadvantage than by continuity. Economic trends were equalizing but demographic trends were disequalizing; as family structures shifted, family incomes did not fully reflect labor-market gains. PMID:26456973

Measurement of the rate of droplet deposition in vertical upward and downward annular flows

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murakami, Toshihiro; Okawa, Tomio; Takei, Rei

2008-01-01

The deposition rate of droplets was measured for vertical annular two-phase flows in a small diameter tube by means of the double film extraction technique. The test section was a round tube of 5 mm in inside diameter, air and water were used as test fluids, and the flow direction was set to upward and downward; the system pressure and the flow rates of gas and liquid phases were changed parametrically. If the droplet velocity relative to the continuous gas phase is in the equilibrium state, the shear induced lift force acting on droplets is directed toward the tube centerline in upflow while toward the tube wall in downflow. Particular attention was therefore paid to the effect of flow direction. It was shown experimentally that the deposition rate of droplets in downward flow is greater than that in upward flow. The difference in the measured deposition rate may be attributed to the direction of lift force acting on droplets. (author)

Trend Analysis of Organ and Tissue Donation for Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Dos Santos, M J; Leal de Moraes, E; Santini Martins, M; Carlos de Almeida, E; Borges de Barros E Silva, L; Urias, V; Silvano Corrêa Pacheco Furtado, M C; Brito Nunes, Á; El Hage, S

2018-03-01

The goal of this study was to identify the tendency toward donations of tissue and organs from donors with brain death between 2001 and 2016 as registered by an organ procurement organization in São Paulo City. This quantitative, retrospective, exploratory study encompassed all Tissue and Organ Donation Terms signed between 2001 and 2016. A logistic regression model was applied to verify whether there was an upward or downward trend in donation. After statistical analysis, a significant change trend was identified in skin, bones, valve, vessel, heart, lung, and pancreas donations, indicating an increase in the donation rate through the years. The donation rate did not show changes over the years for donations of liver, kidneys, and corneas. The decision-making process regarding organ and tissue donation is restricted not only to the dilemma of whether to donate but another question then arises as well: which organs and tissues are to be donated? The discrepancy between the authorization for organ donation and the authorization for tissue donation, as well as the option for one or another organ and/or tissue, must be thoroughly examined because these factors directly affect the number of transplants and acquirements effectively accomplished. These factors may be related to explaining to one's relatives aspects of the surgery, body reassembling, and usage of such organs and/or tissues. They may also be related to the lack of knowledge concerning organ donation and the symbolism represented by the organ and/or tissue, among other factors. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analysis of water-quality trends at two discharge stations; one within Big Cypress National Preserve and one near Biscayne Bay; southern Florida, 1966-94

Science.gov (United States)

Lietz, A.C.

2000-01-01

(1976-94). Deterioration in water quality at the same station was indicated by upward trends in specific conductance (1966-94), dissolved solids (1966-94, 1976-94, and 1987-94), chloride (1966-94), potassium (1966-94), magnesium (1966-94), sodium (1966-94), sulfate (1966-94), silica (1966-94), suspended sediment (1974-94), total organic carbon (1970-81), and fecal streptococcus (1987-94). The downward trend in pH (1966-94) was indicative of deterioration in water quality at the Miami Canal station. Improvement in water quality at the Tamiami Canal station was reflected by downward trends in fluoride (1967-93), total ammonia (1970-92), total nitrite plus nitrate (1975-85), and barium (1978-93). Deterioration in water quality at the same station was statistically significant by upward trends in specific conductance (1967-93), dissolved solids (1967-93), chloride (1967-93), sodium (1967-93), potassium (1967-93), magnesium (1967-93), strontium (1967-93), and suspended sediment (1976-93). The downward trend in dissolved oxygen (1970-93) was indicative of deterioration in water quality.

A three-stage hybrid model for regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses of temperature anomalies in China from 1966 to 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Feifei; Yang, XiaoHua; Shen, Zhenyao

2018-06-01

Temperature anomalies have received increasing attention due to their potentially severe impacts on ecosystems, economy and human health. To facilitate objective regionalization and examine regional temperature anomalies, a three-stage hybrid model with stages of regionalization, trends and sensitivity analyses was developed. Annual mean and extreme temperatures were analyzed using the daily data collected from 537 stations in China from 1966 to 2015, including the annual mean, minimum and maximum temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) as well as the extreme minimum and maximum temperatures (TNe and TXe). The results showed the following: (1) subregions with coherent temperature changes were identified using the rotated empirical orthogonal function analysis and K-means clustering algorithm. The numbers of subregions were 6, 7, 8, 9 and 8 for Tm, TNm, TXm, TNe and TXe, respectively. (2) Significant increases in temperature were observed in most regions of China from 1966 to 2015, although warming slowed down over the last decade. This warming primarily featured a remarkable increase in its minimum temperature. For Tm and TNm, 95% of the stations showed a significant upward trend at the 99% confidence level. TNe increased the fastest, at a rate of 0.56 °C/decade, whereas 21% of the stations in TXe showed a downward trend. (3) The mean temperatures (Tm, TNm and TXm) in the high-latitude regions increased more quickly than those in the low-latitude regions. The maximum temperature increased significantly at high elevations, whereas the minimum temperature increased greatly at middle-low elevations. The most pronounced warming occurred in eastern China in TNe and northwestern China in TXe, with mean elevations of 51 m and 2098 m, respectively. A cooling trend in TXe was observed at the northwestern end of China. The warming rate in TNe varied the most among the subregions (0.63 °C/decade).

Time trends for prostate cancer mortality in Brazil and its geographic regions: An age-period-cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Braga, Sonia Faria Mendes; de Souza, Mirian Carvalho; Cherchiglia, Mariangela Leal

2017-10-01

In the 1980s, an increase in mortality rates for prostate cancer was observed in North America and developed European countries. In the 1990s, however, mortality rates decreased for these countries, an outcome related to early detection of the disease. Conversely, an upward trend in mortality rates was observed in Brazil. This study describe the trends in mortality for prostate cancer in Brazil and geographic regions (North, Northeast, South, Southeast, and Central-West) between 1980 until 2014 and analyze the influence of age, period, and cohort effects on mortality rates. This time-series study used data from the Mortality Information System (SIM) and population data from Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The effects on mortality rates were examined using age-period-cohort (APC) models. Crude and standardized mortality rates showed an upward trend for Brazil and its regions more than 2-fold the last 30 years. Age effects showed an increased risk of death in all regions. Period effects showed a higher risk of death in the finals periods for the North and Northeast. Cohort effects showed risk of death was higher for younger than older generations in Brazil and regions, mainly Northeast (RR Adjusted =3.12, 95% CI 1.29-1.41; RR Adjusted =0.28, 95% CI 0.26-0.30, respectively). The increase in prostate cancer mortality rates in Brazil and its regions was mainly due to population aging. The differences in mortality rates and APC effects between regions are related to demographic differences and access of health services across the country. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Long-term trends of suicide by choice of method in Norway: a joinpoint regression analysis of data from 1969 to 2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Puzo, Quirino; Qin, Ping; Mehlum, Lars

2016-03-11

Suicide mortality and the rates by specific methods in a population may change over time in response to concurrent changes in relevant factors in society. This study aimed to identify significant changing points in method-specific suicide mortality from 1969 to 2012 in Norway. Data on suicide mortality by specific methods and by sex and age were retrieved from the Norwegian Cause-of-Death Register. Long-term trends in age-standardized rates of suicide mortality were analyzed by using joinpoint regression analysis. The most frequently used suicide method in the total population was hanging, followed by poisoning and firearms. Men chose suicide by firearms more often than women, whereas poisoning and drowning were more frequently used by women. The joinpoint analysis revealed that the overall trend of suicide mortality significantly changed twice along the period of 1969 to 2012 for both sexes. The male age-standardized suicide rate increased by 3.1% per year until 1989, and decreased by 1.2% per year between 1994 and 2012. Among females the long-term suicide rate increased by 4.0% per year until 1988, decreased by 5.5% through 1995, and then stabilized. Both sexes experienced an upward trend for suicide by hanging during the 44-year observation period, with a particularly significant increase in 15-24 year old males. The most distinct change among men was seen for firearms after 1988 with a significant decrease through 2012 of around 5% per year. For women, significant reductions since 1985-88 were observed for suicide by drowning and poisoning. The present study demonstrates different time trends for different suicide methods with significant reductions in suicide by firearms, drowning and poisoning after the peak in the suicide rate in the late 1980s. Suicide by means of hanging continuously increased, but did not fully compensate for the reduced use of other methods. This lends some support for the effectiveness of method-specific suicide preventive measures

Development and application of a methodology for the analysis of significant human related event trends in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, H.Y.

1981-01-01

A methodology is developed to identify and flag significant trends related to the safety and availability of U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. The development is intended to aid in reducing likelihood of human errors. To assure that the methodology can be easily adapted to various types of classification schemes of operation data, a data bank classified by the Transient Analysis Classification and Evaluation (TRACE) scheme is selected for the methodology. The significance criteria for human-initiated events affecting the systems and for events caused by human deficiencies were developed. Clustering analysis was used to verify the learning trend in multidimensional histograms. A computer code is developed based on the K-Means algorithm and applied to find the learning period in which error rates are monotonously decreasing with plant age. The Freeman-Tukey (F-T) deviates are used to select generic problems identified by a large positive value (here approximately over 2.0) for the deviate. The identified generic problems are: decision errors which are highly associated with reactor startup operations in the learning period of PWR plants (PWRs), response errors which are highly associated with Secondary Non-Nuclear Systems (SNS) in PWRs, and significant errors affecting systems and which are caused by response action are highly associated with startup reactor mode in BWRS

Experimental Investigation of the Hot Water Layer Effect on Upward Flow Open Pool Reactor Operability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abou Elmaaty, T.

2014-01-01

The open pool reactor offers a high degree of reliability in the handling and manoeuvring, the replacement of reactor internal components and the suing of vertical irradiation channels. The protection of both the operators and the reactor hall environment against radiation hazards is considered a matter of interest. So, a hot water layer is implemented above many of the research reactors main pool, especially those whose flow direction is upward flow. An experimental work was carried out to ensure the operability of the upward flow open pool research reactor with / without the hot water layer. The performed experiment showed that, the hot water layer is produced an inverse buoyant force make the water to diffuse downward against the ordinary natural circulation from the reactor core. An upward flow - open pool research reactor (with a power greater than 20 M watt) could not wok without a hot water layer. The high temperature of the hot water layer surface could release a considerable amount of water vapour into the reactor hall, so a heat and mass transfer model is built based on the measured hot water layer surface temperature to calculate the amount of released water vapour during the reactor operating period. The effects of many parameters like the ambient air temperature, the reactor hall relative humidity and the speed of the pushed air layer above the top pool end on the evaporation rate is studied. The current study showed that, the hot water layer system is considered an efficient shielding system against Gamma radiation for open pool upward flow reactor and that system should be operated before the reactor start up by a suitable period of time. While, the heat and mass transfer model results showed that, the amount of the released water vapour is increased as a result of both the increase in hot water layer surface temperature and the increase in air layer speed. As the increase in hot water layer surface temperature could produce a good operability

Experimental Investigation of the Hot Water Layer Effect on Upward Flow Open Pool Reactor Operability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abou Elmaaty, T.

2015-01-01

The open pool reactor offers a high degree of reliability in the handling and manoeuvring, the replacement of reactor internal components and the swing of vertical irradiation channels. The protection of both the operators and the reactor hall environment against radiation hazards is considered a matter of interest. So, a hot water layer implemented above many of the research reactors main pool, especially those whose flow direction is upward flow. An experimental work was carried out to ensure the operability of the upward flow open pool research reactor with / without the hot water layer. The performed experiment showed that, the hot water layer produced an inverse buoyant force making the water to diffuse downward against the ordinary natural circulation from the reactor core. An upward flow-open pool research reactor (with a power greater than 20 Mw) could not wok without a hot water layer. The high temperature of the hot water layer surface could release a considerable amount of water vapour into the reactor hall, so a heat and mass transfer model is built based on the measured hot water layer surface temperature to calculate the amount of released water vapour during the reactor operating period. The effects of many parameters like the ambient air temperature, the reactor hall relative humidity and the speed of the pushed air layer above the top pool end on the evaporation rate is studied. The current study showed that, the hot water layer system is considered an efficient shielding system against gamma radiation for open pool upward flow reactor and that system should be operated before the reactor start up by a suitable period of time. While, the heat and mass transfer model results showed that, the amount of the released water vapour is increased as a result of both the increase in hot water layer surface temperature and the increase in air layer speed. As the increase in hot water layer surface temperature could produce a good operability conditions from

Simultaneous removal of organic contaminants and heavy metals from kaolin using an upward electrokinetic soil remediation process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, J.-Y.; Huang, X.-J.; Kao, Jimmy C.M.; Stabnikova, Olena

2007-01-01

Kaolins contaminated with heavy metals, Cu and Pb, and organic compounds, p-xylene and phenanthrene, were treated with an upward electrokinetic soil remediation (UESR) process. The effects of current density, cathode chamber flushing fluid, treatment duration, reactor size, and the type of contaminants under the vertical non-uniform electric field of UESR on the simultaneous removal of the heavy metals and organic contaminants were studied. The removal efficiencies of p-xylene and phenanthrene were higher in the experiments with cells of smaller diameter or larger height, and with distilled water flow in the cathode chamber. The removal efficiency of Cu and Pb were higher in the experiments with smaller diameter or shorter height cells and 0.01 M HNO 3 solution as cathode chamber flow. In spite of different conditions for removal of heavy metals and organics, it is possible to use the upward electrokinetic soil remediation process for their simultaneous removal. Thus, in the experiments with duration of 6 days removal efficiencies of phenanthrene, p-xylene, Cu and Pb were 67%, 93%, 62% and 35%, respectively. The experiment demonstrated the feasibility of simultaneous removal of organic contaminants and heavy metals from kaolin using the upward electrokinetic soil remediation process

Future role and significance of space activities in reflection of global social, technological and economic trends

Science.gov (United States)

Diekmann, Andreas; Richarz, Hans.-Peter

The paper describes the interrelation of space activities and global socio-economic trends like "globalisation of markets" and "renaissance of fine arts". The interrelation reveals the economic strategic, technological and scientific dimension of space activities and their benefits to mankind. Then, the significance and perspectives of space activities in these dimensions are examined in more detail. The paper calls (1) for a more visible initiative to employ space activities to tackle urgent questions of global change and development, and (2) for a stronger impetus to secure European economic position in space sector as a key industry of the 21st century.

Use of the D-R model to define trends in the emergence of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli in China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fan Ding

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess the efficacy of the D-R model for defining trends in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant Escherichia coli. METHODS: Actual data related to the manifestation of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli spanning years 1996-2009 were collected from the China National Knowledge Internet. These data originated from 430 publications encompassing 1004 citations of resistance. The GM(1,1 and the novel D-R models were used to fit current data and from this, predict trends in the appearance of the drug-resistant phenotype. The results were evaluated by Relative Standard Error (RSE, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD and Mean Absolute Error (MAE. RESULTS: Results from the D-R model showed a rapid increase in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli in this region of the world. These results were considered accurate based upon the minor values calculated for RSE, MAD and MAE, and were equivalent to or better than those generated by the GM(1,1 model. CONCLUSION: The D-R model which was originally created to define trends in the transmission of swine viral diseases can be adapted to evaluating trends in the appearance of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli. Using only a limited amount of data to initiate the study, our predictions closely mirrored the changes in drug resistance rates which showed a steady increase through 2005, a decrease between 2005 and 2008, and a dramatic inflection point and abrupt increase beginning in 2008. This is consistent with a resistance profile where changes in drug intervention temporarily delayed the upward trend in the appearance of the resistant phenotype; however, resistance quickly resumed its upward momentum in 2008 and this change was better predicted using the D-R model. Additional work is needed to determine if this pattern of "increase-control-increase" is indicative of Ceftazidime-resistant E. coli or can be generally ascribed to bacteria acquiring resistance to drugs in the absence of alternative

Upward trends in the use of community mental health and social work services in the Netherlands between 1979 and 1995 : are particular sociodemographic groups responsible?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Have, M. ten; Meertens, V.; Scheepers, P.; Beekman, A.T.F.; Vollebergh, W.; Grotenhuis, Manfred Te

2003-01-01

Objective: We investigate 1) trends in use of community mental health care (CMHC) and community social work (CSW) by Dutch households in 1979–1995; 2) whether such trends can be explained by long-term relative changes in service use or in sizes of particular household categories. Method: Data was

Enhanced MODIS Atmospheric Total Water Vapour Content Trends in Response to Arctic Amplification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dunya Alraddawi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In order to assess the strength of the water vapour feedback within Arctic climate change, 15 years of the total column-integrated density of water vapour (TCWV from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS are analysed. Arctic TCWV distribution, trends, and anomalies for the 2001–2015 period, broken down into seasons and months, are analysed. Enhanced local spring TCWV trends above the terrestrial Arctic regions are discussed in relation to land snow cover and vegetation changes. Upward TCWV trends above the oceanic areas are discussed in lien with sea ice extent and sea surface temperature changes. Increased winter TCWV (up to 40% south of the Svalbard archipelago are observed; these trends are probably driven by a local warming and sea ice extent decline. Similarly, the Barents/Kara regions underwent wet trends (up to 40%, also associated with winter/fall local sea ice loss. Positive late summer TCWV trends above the western Greenland and Beaufort seas (about 20% result from enhanced upper ocean warming and thereby a local coastal decline in ice extent. The Mackenzie and Siberia enhanced TCWV trends (about 25% during spring are found to be associated with coincident decreased snow cover and increased vegetation, as a result of the earlier melt onset. Results show drier summers in the Eurasia and western Alaska regions, thought to be affected by changes in albedo from changing vegetation. Other TCWV anomalies are also presented and discussed in relation to the dramatic decline in sea ice extent and the exceptional rise in sea surface temperature.

Evaluation of upward heat flux in ex-vessel molten core heat transfer using MELCOR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, S.Y.; Park, J.H.; Kim, S.D.; Kim, D.H.; Kim, H.D.

2000-01-01

The purpose of this study is to share experiences of MELCOR application to resolve the molten corium-concrete interaction (MCCI) issue in the Korea Next Generation Reactor (KNGR). In the evaluation of concrete erosion, the heat transfer modeling from the molten corium internal to the corium pool surface is very important and uncertain. MELCOR employs Kutateladze or Greene's bubble-enhanced heat transfer model for the internal heat transfer. The phenomenological uncertainty is so large that the model provides several model parameters in addition to the phenomenological model for user flexibility. However, the model parameters do not work on Kutateladze correlation at the top of the molten layer. From our experience, a code modification is suggested to match the upward heat flux with the experimental results. In this analysis, minor modification was carried out to calculate heat flux from the top molten layer to corium surface, and efforts were made to find out the best value of the model parameter based on upward heat flux of MACE test M1B. Discussion also includes its application to KNGR. (author)

PENSION FUNDS EVOLUTION, REFORMS AND TRENDS IN SOUTHAFRICA

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Nthabiseng Moleko

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a graphical and descriptive analysis of the historical trends ofthe South African pension fund sector in order to provide insights andunderstanding ofnon-banking finance. Using a combination of secondary data anda desk review of existing literature, we provide in-depth analysis of the differenttypes and number of pension funds, industry trends, policy reforms and legislativeframeworks enacted by theSouth African government for the development of thesector. The study identified the evolution of the pension fund industry to be in fourphases coinciding with different waves of industry policy reforms, namely: theinfancy phase (1911-1958; institutionalisation phase (1959-1984; separation andcontinued separation phase (1985-1994; and corporatisation and amalgamation(1995-2015 The industry growth analysis indicated that a compounded annualgrowth rate of 14 percent is the highest annual growth overthe past decade and thisgrowth exceeds the global market average of 6.5 percent over the same period. Theindustry trend analysis is indicative of an upward trend in terms of funds’membership with the trendline showing a steep rise to over 15 million membersfrom under 10 million memberships with the space of a decade. However, thenumber of pension funds operating in the industry has declined due to a steadymove towards umbrella funds. Although the South African pension fund industry isnot only movingin the right direction but also considered a beacon of successaround the world, there remains huge potential for growth of the sector. Therefore,maintaining sound regulatory policies and government interventions will continueto ensure that pension fundsare well managed and bad practices discouraged in thesector through the oversight functions of government regulatory institutions such asthe Pension Fund Registrar and Financial Services Board.

Modelling impacts of temperature, and acidifying and eutrophying deposition on DOC trends

Science.gov (United States)

Sawicka, Kasia; Rowe, Ed; Evans, Chris; Monteith, Don; Vanguelova, Elena; Wade, Andrew; Clark, Joanna

2017-04-01

Surface water dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in large parts of the northern hemisphere have risen over the past three decades, raising concern about enhanced contributions of carbon to the atmosphere and seas and oceans. The effect of declining acid deposition has been identified as a key control on DOC trends in soil and surface waters, since pH and ionic strength affect sorption and desorption of DOC. However, since DOC is derived mainly from recently-fixed carbon, and organic matter decomposition rates are considered sensitive to temperature, uncertainty persists regarding the extent to the relative importance of different drivers that affect these upward trends. We ran the dynamic model MADOC (Model of Acidity and Soil Organic Carbon) for a range of UK soils (podzols, gleysols and peatland), for which the time-series were available, to consider the likely relative importance of decreased deposition of sulphate and chloride, accumulation of reactive N, and higher temperatures, on DOC production in different soils. Modelled patterns of DOC change generally agreed favourably with measurements collated over 10-20 years, but differed markedly between sites. While the acidifying effect of sulphur deposition appeared to be the predominant control on the observed soil water DOC trends in all the soils considered other than a blanket peat, the model suggested that over the long term, the effects of nitrogen deposition on N-limited soils may have been sufficient to elevate the DOC recovery trajectory significantly. The second most influential cause of rising DOC in the model simulations was N deposition in ecosystems that are N-limited and respond with stimulated plant growth. Although non-marine chloride deposition made some contribution to acidification and recovery, it was not amongst the main drivers of DOC change. Warming had almost no effect on modelled historic DOC trends, but may prove to be a significant driver of DOC in future via its influence

Trend of dissolved inorganic nitrogen at stations downstream from the Three-Gorges Dam of Yangtze River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sun, C.C.; Shen, Z.Y.; Xiong, M.; Ma, F.B.; Li, Y.Y.; Chen, L.; Liu, R.M.

2013-01-01

The TRAMO/SEATS program, combined with the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, was used to detect trends and potential change points in time series of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) at three stations along the Yangtze River. The trend components were extracted, and two change points were successfully detected. The components revealed that DIN has been increasing at all the stations since the 1990s, although variations exist. Changes visible before 2002 illustrate the differences in agriculture development among regions upstream from the stations. The Three-Gorges Dam (TGD), which began to impound in 2003, led to years of different trends. The DIN concentration, which had been trending upward prior to that date, began a slightly downward trend because of NH 4 + depletion. Readings at the Yichang station revealed this trend most strongly; those at the Hankou station less so. The Datong station was far enough away from the TGD so that no obvious effects were seen. -- Highlights: •TRAMO/SEATS program coupled with HP filter was used to find water quality trends. •Smooth trends other than step trends were separated from trend-cycle components. •DIN concentration was proved to be a reflection of agricultural development. •The three stations experienced different agricultural development since 1990s. •The impoundment of the Three-Gorges Dam can impact as far as to the Hankou station. -- DIN concentrations were reflections of agricultural development in the YRB, but the impoundment of TGD since June, 2003 also had impacts on DIN concentrations far to the Hankou station

Trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity in danish infants, children and adolescents--are we still on a plateau?

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Camilla Schmidt Morgen

Full Text Available After the worldwide steep increase in child and adolescent overweight and obesity during the last decades, there is now evidence of a levelling off in the prevalence in many countries in the Western world.To examine whether there still is a plateau in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Danish children and adolescents, or whether the prevalence is decreasing or rising again.THE TRENDS IN THE PREVALENCE RATES WERE BASED ON THREE DATA SETS PROVIDING COMPARABLE REPEATED ESTIMATES: 1 the Danish Health Visitors Child Health Database (DHVCHD with measurements on infant and childhood height and weight from 2002 to 2011 (n up to 39,984, 2 the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC with maternal reports of measured infant and childhood height and weight from 1998 to 2010 (n up to 56,826 and 3 the Danish part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey (HBSC with self-reported information on adolescent height and weight from the years 2002 to 2010 (n = 16,557. Overweight and obesity were categorized according to WHO growth standards. Trends were assessed by repeated point estimates and linear regression analyses providing regression coefficients for changes in per cent per year with 95% confidence intervals (CI.The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity for infants, children and adolescents showed a mixed pattern of decline, stability and increase (ranging from -1.10 through 0.29 per cent per year with CI's from -3.10 through 2.37. Overall, there were no consistent statistically significant trends upwards or downwards, although some significant downward trends in childhood and adolescence were observed.This study, based on data from 1998 through 2011, showed that the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity among Danish infants, children and adolescents were largely still on a plateau with tendencies for a decline among children and adolescents.

The transition from flooding to upwards cocurrent annular flow in a vertical pipe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wallis, G.B.

1962-02-01

The limits of countercurrent flow in a vertical pipe are related to the onset of cocurrent upwards annual flow. The results are confirmed by evidence from several sources and lead to the criterion v g =(0.8→0.9)p g -1/2 [D g (p f -p g )] 1/2 for the minimum gas superficial velocity which will support a liquid film in concurrent flow. (author)

Phase distribution phenomena in upward cocurrent bubbly flows. A critical review of the experimental and theoretical works

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grossetete, C.

1992-09-01

The most important and challenging problems in two-phase bubbly flow today are related to the physical understanding and the modeling of multidimensional phenomena such as the distribution of phases in space. We present here a critical review of the available experimental and theoretical studies in gas-liquid adiabatic and non-reactive upward bubbly flows which have been carried out to define and improve the physical models needed to close the three-dimensional two-fluid model equations. It appears that: so far, the axial development of two-phase upward bubbly flows has not been handled thoroughly. Little is known about the way the pressure gradient as well as the gas-liquid mixing conditions affect the distribution of phases, the problems related to the closing of the two-fluid model equations are far from being solved. The physical models proposed seem often to be too much complex considering how little we know about the mechanisms involved, there are still very few multidimensional numerical models whose results have been compared with experimental data on bubbly flows. The boundary conditions introduced in the codes as well as the sensitivity of the results to the parameters of the codes are never precisely stated. To bridge some of those gaps, we propose to perform an experimental and numerical study of the axial development of two-phase air-water upward bubbly flows in vertical pipes

Trends in space activities in 2014: The significance of the space activities of governments

Science.gov (United States)

Paikowsky, Deganit; Baram, Gil; Ben-Israel, Isaac

2016-01-01

This article addresses the principal events of 2014 in the field of space activities, and extrapolates from them the primary trends that can be identified in governmental space activities. In 2014, global space activities centered on two vectors. The first was geopolitical, and the second relates to the matrix between increasing commercial space activities and traditional governmental space activities. In light of these two vectors, the article outlines and analyzes trends of space exploration, human spaceflights, industry and technology, cooperation versus self-reliance, and space security and sustainability. It also reviews the space activities of the leading space-faring nations.

Intensity of Upward Muon Flux Due to Cosmic-Ray Neutrinos Produced in the Atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, T. D.; Robinson, H.; Schwartz, M.; Cool, R.

1963-06-01

Calculations were performed to determine the upward going muon flux leaving the earth's surface after production by cosmic-ray neutrinos in the crust. Only neutrinos produced in the earth's atmosphere are considered. Rates of the order of one per 100 sq m/day might be expected if an intermediate boson exists and has a mass less than 2 Bev. (auth)

Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species.

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Jiří Flousek

Full Text Available Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše, where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta. It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory.

The Next World War: World-System Cycles and Trends

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Christopher Chase-Dunn

1995-08-01

Full Text Available This essay places the contemporary period of global development in long-run historical perspective, elaborates a model of world-system cycles and trends, and discusses the main structural forces influencing the probability of future war among core powers. The possible continuation of the cycle of hegemonic rivalry is discussed in terms of the similarities and differences between the coming three decades and earlier periods in which a declining hegemon was challenged by upwardly mobile states. Possible bids for economic and political hegemony by Japan, Germany, China and the United States are discussed, as are the possibilities for different coalitions in East Asia and Europe. The phenomenon of bloc formation is discussed in a long-term perspective that includes earlier periods of colonial empire and "commonwealth." We conclude that there is a significantly high probability that warfare among core states could occur in the 2020s. The prospects for global state formation within the next three decades are considered. We recommend a combination of the build-up of U.N. peace-keeping forces and the continuation of U.S. military strength as the least worst and most feasible solution to the problem of avoiding nuclear holocaust in the 2020s.

Detecting Long-term Trend of Water Quality Indices of Dong-gang River, Taiwan Using Quantile Regression

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Yang, D.; Shiau, J.

2013-12-01

upstrean Hing-she station raise vivestok Sing-She stations are that ammonia on a upward trend, BOD5 no significant change in trend, DO, and SS is on the rise, river pollution index (RPI) a slight downward trend. Dong-gang River Basin , but the progress of sewer construction in slow. To reduce pollation in this river effort shoul be made regulatory reform on livestock waste control and acceleration of sewer construction. Keywords: quantile regression analysis, BOD5, RPI

Trends in Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Danish Infants, Children and Adolescents – Are We Still on a Plateau?

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt Morgen, Camilla; Rokholm, Benjamin; Sjöberg Brixval, Carina; Schou Andersen, Camilla; Geisler Andersen, Lise; Rasmussen, Mette; Nybo Andersen, Anne-Marie; Due, Pernille; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.

2013-01-01

Background After the worldwide steep increase in child and adolescent overweight and obesity during the last decades, there is now evidence of a levelling off in the prevalence in many countries in the Western world. Aim To examine whether there still is a plateau in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Danish children and adolescents, or whether the prevalence is decreasing or rising again. Methods The trends in the prevalence rates were based on three data sets providing comparable repeated estimates: 1) the Danish Health Visitors Child Health Database (DHVCHD) with measurements on infant and childhood height and weight from 2002 to 2011 (n up to 39,984), 2) the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) with maternal reports of measured infant and childhood height and weight from 1998 to 2010 (n up to 56,826) and 3) the Danish part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey (HBSC) with self-reported information on adolescent height and weight from the years 2002 to 2010 (n = 16,557). Overweight and obesity were categorized according to WHO growth standards. Trends were assessed by repeated point estimates and linear regression analyses providing regression coefficients for changes in per cent per year with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity for infants, children and adolescents showed a mixed pattern of decline, stability and increase (ranging from -1.10 through 0.29 per cent per year with CI’s from -3.10 through 2.37). Overall, there were no consistent statistically significant trends upwards or downwards, although some significant downward trends in childhood and adolescence were observed. Conclusion This study, based on data from 1998 through 2011, showed that the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity among Danish infants, children and adolescents were largely still on a plateau with tendencies for a decline among children and adolescents. PMID:23894553

Theory and observations of upward field-aligned currents at the magnetopause boundary layer.

Science.gov (United States)

Wing, Simon; Johnson, Jay R

2015-11-16

The dependence of the upward field-aligned current density ( J ‖ ) at the dayside magnetopause boundary layer is well described by a simple analytic model based on a velocity shear generator. A previous observational survey confirmed that the scaling properties predicted by the analytical model are applicable between 11 and 17 MLT. We utilize the analytic model to predict field-aligned currents using solar wind and ionospheric parameters and compare with direct observations. The calculated and observed parallel currents are in excellent agreement, suggesting that the model may be useful to infer boundary layer structures. However, near noon, where velocity shear is small, the kinetic pressure gradients and thermal currents, which are not included in the model, could make a small but significant contribution to J ‖ . Excluding data from noon, our least squares fit returns log( J ‖,max_cal ) = (0.96 ± 0.04) log( J ‖_obs ) + (0.03 ± 0.01) where J ‖,max_cal = calculated J ‖,max and J ‖_obs = observed J ‖ .

The influence of the unsaturated zone on the upward transport of radionuclides in soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elert, M.; Lindgren, M.

1993-07-01

The transport of radionuclides from the deep soil to the surface soil is an important part of biosphere modelling. In this study the effect of transient hydrological conditions on the upward transport of radionuclides through soils has been studied. The effect of varying soil properties, climate conditions have been considered as well as the effect of a fluctuating groundwater level. It was shown that the soil characteristics influences the radionuclide concentration; an increased hydraulic conductivity leads to increase in the concentration in the root zone. The climate conditions were shown to be of major importance. A dispersion dependent on both velocity and saturation leads to a more effective upward transport of radionuclides to the root zone than if dispersion is assumed to be dependent only on the saturation. The boundary condition used in the case with varying groundwater level may be more realistic than the boundary condition applied for the case with a constant groundwater level. All calculations with varying groundwater level gave lower radionuclide concentration in the root zone. Sorption is redox sensitive for many radionuclides and the redox potential in the soil will be affected by the degree of water saturation. The performed calculations did, however, not result in any significant change in the radionuclide concentration in the root zone due to variation in sorption. A comparison between the results of the two models show that the compartment model in all studied cases predicts a higher annual average radionuclide concentration in the root zone than the numerical model. Annual variation in soil water flow were not included in the compartment model. During the summer the concentration in the root zone may be several times higher than the annual average. This may be important for plant uptake, since this increased concentrations coincides with the plant growing season. The calculations made with the simple compartment model also show that these

Feeling bad, but satisfied : the effects of upward and downward comparison upon mood and marital satisfaction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buunk, B.P.; Ybema, J.F.

2003-01-01

In a sample of 135 women from rural areas, the effects of social comparison with the marriage of another woman upon mood, identification and relationship evaluation were examined. Upward targets evoked a more positive mood, and a less negative mood than downward targets, while, in contrast, the

Freezing of aluminium oxide and iron flowing upward in circular quartz glass tubes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuhn, D.; Moeschke, M.; Werle, H.

1983-10-01

The freezing of aluminium oxide and iron flowing upward in circular quartz glass tubes has been studied in a series of experiments. Several tubes were used in the same test. This demonstrated a good reproducibility and allowed systematic parameter variations, especially of the channel diameter. The time-dependance of the penetration was observed with a film camera and these date provide a good basis for a detailed check of sophisticated models which are in development. (orig.) [de

Upward nitrate transport by phytoplankton in oceanic waters: balancing nutrient budgets in oligotrophic seas

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Tracy A. Villareal

2014-03-01

Full Text Available In oceanic subtropical gyres, primary producers are numerically dominated by small (1–5 µm diameter pro- and eukaryotic cells that primarily utilize recycled nutrients produced by rapid grazing turnover in a highly efficient microbial loop. Continuous losses of nitrogen (N to depth by sinking, either as single cells, aggregates or fecal pellets, are balanced by both nitrate inputs at the base of the euphotic zone and N2-fixation. This input of new N to balance export losses (the biological pump is a fundamental aspect of N cycling and central to understanding carbon fluxes in the ocean. In the Pacific Ocean, detailed N budgets at the time-series station HOT require upward transport of nitrate from the nutricline (80–100 m into the surface layer (∼0–40 m to balance productivity and export needs. However, concentration gradients are negligible and cannot support the fluxes. Physical processes can inject nitrate into the base of the euphotic zone, but the mechanisms for transporting this nitrate into the surface layer across many 10s of m in highly stratified systems are unknown. In these seas, vertical migration by the very largest (102–103 µm diameter phytoplankton is common as a survival strategy to obtain N from sub-euphotic zone depths. This vertical migration is driven by buoyancy changes rather than by flagellated movement and can provide upward N transport as nitrate (mM concentrations in the cells. However, the contribution of vertical migration to nitrate transport has been difficult to quantify over the required basin scales. In this study, we use towed optical systems and isotopic tracers to show that migrating diatom (Rhizosolenia mats are widespread in the N. Pacific Ocean from 140°W to 175°E and together with other migrating phytoplankton (Ethmodiscus, Halosphaera, Pyrocystis, and solitary Rhizosolenia can mediate time-averaged transport of N (235 µmol N m-2 d-1 equivalent to eddy nitrate injections (242 µmol NO3− m

Seasonal and Interannual Trends in Largest Cholera Endemic Megacity: Water Sustainability - Climate - Health Challenges in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Akanda, Ali S.; Jutla, Antarpreet; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.

2014-05-01

The last three decades of surveillance data shows a drastic increase of cholera prevalence in the largest cholera-endemic city in the world - Dhaka, Bangladesh. Emerging megacities in the region, especially those located in coastal areas also remain vulnerable to large scale drivers of cholera outbreaks. However, there has not been any systematic study on linking long-term disease trends with related changes in natural or societal variables. Here, we analyze the 30-year dynamics of urban cholera prevalence in Dhaka with changes in climatic or anthropogenic forcings: regional hydrology, flooding, water usage, changes in distribution systems, population growth and density in urban settlements, as well as shifting climate patterns and frequency of natural disasters. An interesting change is observed in the seasonal trends of cholera prevalence; while an endemic upward trend is seen in the dry season, the post-monsoon trend is epidemic in nature. In addition, the trend in the pre-monsoon dry season is significantly stronger than the post-monsoon wet season; and thus spring is becoming the dominant cholera season of the year. Evidence points to growing urbanization and rising population in unplanned settlements along the city peripheries. The rapid pressure of growth has led to an unsustainable and potentially disastrous situation with negligible-to-poor water and sanitation systems compounded by changing climatic patterns and increasing number of extreme weather events. Growing water scarcity in the dry season and lack of sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure for urban settlements have increased endemicity of cholera outbreaks in spring, while record flood events and prolonged post-monsoon inundation have contributed to increased epidemic outbreaks in fall. We analyze our findings with the World Health Organization recommended guidelines and investigate large scale water sustainability challenges in the context of climatic and anthropogenic changes in the

Doing worse, but feeling happy : Social comparison and identification in response to upward and downward targets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groothof, H.; Siero, F.W.; Buunk, Abraham (Bram)

2007-01-01

We investigated people's responses to exposure to downward and upward targets. In Study 1, among 197 participants, it was predicted and found that such exposure led to a contrast effect on self-evaluation, and to an assimilation effect on affect. In Study 2, among 148 participants, it was predicted

Mindfulness training promotes upward spirals of positive affect and cognition : Multilevel and autoregressive latent trajectory modeling analyses

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Garland, Eric L.; Geschwind, Nicole; Peeters, Frenk; Wichers, Marieke

2015-01-01

Recent theory suggests that positive psychological processes integral to health may be energized through the self-reinforcing dynamics of an upward spiral to counter emotion dysregulation. The present study examined positive emotion-cognition interactions among individuals in partial remission from

The Mediating Roles of Upward Social Comparison and Self-esteem and the Moderating Role of Social Comparison Orientation in the Association between Social Networking Site Usage and Subjective Well-Being.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jin-Liang; Wang, Hai-Zhen; Gaskin, James; Hawk, Skyler

2017-01-01

The increased pervasiveness of social media use has raised questions about potential effects on users' subjective well-being, with studies reaching contrasting conclusions. To reconcile these discrepancies and shed new light on this phenomenon, the current study examined: (1) whether upward social comparison and self-esteem mediate the association between social networking site (SNS) usage and users' subjective well-being, and (2) whether the association between SNS usage and upward social comparison is moderated by users' social comparison orientation. Data from 696 participants were collected. Structural equation modeling revealed that upward social comparison and self-esteem mediated the relationship between SNS usage and users' subjective well-being. We found that social comparison orientation moderated the association between passive SNS usage and users' upward social comparison. Specifically, social comparison orientation strengthened the association between passive SNS usage and upward social comparison. The results might suggest a process through which passive SNS usage is related to subjective well-being, and identify a context under which these associations may differ.

Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

Science.gov (United States)

Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

2013-06-01

Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Assessment of Trend and Seasonality in Road Accident Data: An Iranian Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farzaneh Zolala

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. Methods This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. Results The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Conclusion Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Connecting theory to fat talk: body dissatisfaction mediates the relationships between weight discrepancy, upward comparison, body surveillance, and fat talk.

Science.gov (United States)

Arroyo, Analisa

2014-06-01

The fat talk literature is meager in terms of offering theoretical explanations for women's self-disparaging communication. The research presented here sought to establish a relationship between three prominent body image theories - self-discrepancy theory, social comparison theory, and objectification theory - and fat talk by proposing body dissatisfaction as a potential mediating mechanism. Young adult women (N=201) completed an online questionnaire. As predicted, results revealed that body dissatisfaction significantly mediated the relationships between weight discrepancy, upward comparison, body surveillance and fat talk. Effect size estimates indicated that the size of each indirect effect was medium in magnitude. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ethnic diversity and social capital in upward mobility systems: Problematizing the permeability of intra-organizational career boundaries

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ossenkop, C.; Vinkenburg, C.J.; Jansen, P.G.W.; Ghorashi, H.

2015-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to contribute to a better understanding of the complex relationship between ethnic diversity, social capital, and objective career success in upward mobility systems over time. The authors conceptualize the underlying process of why intra-organizational career

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Le T P Nghiem

Full Text Available With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public.

Analysis of the Capacity of Google Trends to Measure Interest in Conservation Topics and the Role of Online News.

Science.gov (United States)

Nghiem, Le T P; Papworth, Sarah K; Lim, Felix K S; Carrasco, Luis R

2016-01-01

With the continuous growth of internet usage, Google Trends has emerged as a source of information to investigate how social trends evolve over time. Knowing how the level of interest in conservation topics--approximated using Google search volume--varies over time can help support targeted conservation science communication. However, the evolution of search volume over time and the mechanisms that drive peaks in searches are poorly understood. We conducted time series analyses on Google search data from 2004 to 2013 to investigate: (i) whether interests in selected conservation topics have declined and (ii) the effect of news reporting and academic publishing on search volume. Although trends were sensitive to the term used as benchmark, we did not find that public interest towards conservation topics such as climate change, ecosystem services, deforestation, orangutan, invasive species and habitat loss was declining. We found, however, a robust downward trend for endangered species and an upward trend for ecosystem services. The quantity of news articles was related to patterns in Google search volume, whereas the number of research articles was not a good predictor but lagged behind Google search volume, indicating the role of news in the transfer of conservation science to the public.

Emerging psychopathology moderates upward social mobility: The intergenerational (dis)continuity of socioeconomic status.

Science.gov (United States)

Véronneau, Marie-Hélène; Serbin, Lisa A; Stack, Dale M; Ledingham, Jane; Schwartzman, Alex E

2015-11-01

Socioeconomic status (SES) is relatively stable across generations, but social policies may create opportunities for upward social mobility among disadvantaged populations during periods of economic growth. With respect to expanded educational opportunities that occurred in Québec (Canada) during the 1960s, we hypothesized that children's social and academic competence would promote upward mobility, whereas aggression and social withdrawal would have the opposite effect. Out of 4,109 children attending low-SES schools in 1976-1978, a representative subsample of 503 participants were followed until midadulthood. Path analyses revealed that parents' SES predicted offspring's SES through associations with offspring's likeability, academic competence, and educational attainment. Interaction effects revealed individual risk factors that moderated children's ability to take advantage of intrafamilial or extrafamilial opportunities that could enhance their educational attainment. Highly aggressive participants and those presenting low academic achievement were unable to gain advantage from having highly educated parents. They reached lower educational attainment than their less aggressive or higher achieving peers who came from a similarly advantaged family background. Growing up with parents occupying low-prestige jobs put withdrawn boys and outgoing girls at risk for low educational attainment. In conclusion, social policies can raise SES across generations, with great benefits for the most disadvantaged segments of the population. However, children presenting with emerging psychopathology or academic weaknesses do not benefit from these policies as much as others, and should receive additional, targeted services.

Prediction, analysis and solution of flow inversion phenomenon in a typical MTR reactor with upward core cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Morshedy, Salah El-Din

2010-01-01

Research reactors of power greater than 20 MW are usually designed to be cooled with upward coolant flow direction inside the reactor core. This is mainly to prevent flow inversion problems following a pump coast down. However, in some designs and under certain operating conditions, flow inversion phenomenon is predicted. In the present work, the best-estimate Material Testing Reactors Thermal-Hydraulic Analysis program (MTRTHA) is used to simulate a typical MTR reactor behavior with upward cooling under a hypothetical case of loss of off-site power. The flow inversion phenomenon is predicted under certain decay heat and/or pool temperature values below the design values. The reactor simulation under loss of off-site power is performed for two cases namely; two-flap valves open and one flap-valve fails to open. The model results for the flow inversion phenomenon prediction is analyzed and a solution of the problem is suggested. (orig.)

The Mediating Roles of Upward Social Comparison and Self-esteem and the Moderating Role of Social Comparison Orientation in the Association between Social Networking Site Usage and Subjective Well-Being

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jin-Liang Wang

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The increased pervasiveness of social media use has raised questions about potential effects on users’ subjective well-being, with studies reaching contrasting conclusions. To reconcile these discrepancies and shed new light on this phenomenon, the current study examined: (1 whether upward social comparison and self-esteem mediate the association between social networking site (SNS usage and users’ subjective well-being, and (2 whether the association between SNS usage and upward social comparison is moderated by users’ social comparison orientation. Data from 696 participants were collected. Structural equation modeling revealed that upward social comparison and self-esteem mediated the relationship between SNS usage and users’ subjective well-being. We found that social comparison orientation moderated the association between passive SNS usage and users’ upward social comparison. Specifically, social comparison orientation strengthened the association between passive SNS usage and upward social comparison. The results might suggest a process through which passive SNS usage is related to subjective well-being, and identify a context under which these associations may differ.

The Mediating Roles of Upward Social Comparison and Self-esteem and the Moderating Role of Social Comparison Orientation in the Association between Social Networking Site Usage and Subjective Well-Being

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jin-Liang; Wang, Hai-Zhen; Gaskin, James; Hawk, Skyler

2017-01-01

The increased pervasiveness of social media use has raised questions about potential effects on users’ subjective well-being, with studies reaching contrasting conclusions. To reconcile these discrepancies and shed new light on this phenomenon, the current study examined: (1) whether upward social comparison and self-esteem mediate the association between social networking site (SNS) usage and users’ subjective well-being, and (2) whether the association between SNS usage and upward social comparison is moderated by users’ social comparison orientation. Data from 696 participants were collected. Structural equation modeling revealed that upward social comparison and self-esteem mediated the relationship between SNS usage and users’ subjective well-being. We found that social comparison orientation moderated the association between passive SNS usage and users’ upward social comparison. Specifically, social comparison orientation strengthened the association between passive SNS usage and upward social comparison. The results might suggest a process through which passive SNS usage is related to subjective well-being, and identify a context under which these associations may differ. PMID:28553256

Temporal trends of latency period and perinatal survival after very early preterm premature rupture of fetal membranes.

Science.gov (United States)

González-Mesa, Ernesto; Herrera, José A; Urgal, Amaya; Lazarraga, Cristina; Benítez, María J; Gómez, Cristina

2012-08-01

This paper shows temporal trends of latency period and perinatal survival after preterm premature rupture of membranes at or before 28 weeks (very early PPROM). We have studied retrospectively medical records of all cases of very early PPROM attended in our Obstetric Department from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2010. A total of 327 cases of very early PPROM were attended, representing 0.4 % of all deliveries, 3.68 % of all preterm births and 15 % of cases all of PPROM. The mean gestational age at delivery was 27 weeks (range 20-34). The mean duration of latency period for the total of 327 cases was 12.1 days (range 0-83, SD 13.3), with a clear trend to its increase from 2005 (p 2000-2010, perinatal deaths reached 30.6 % of all cases, with a clear trend to decrease as gestational age at diagnosis increased, and over the years of study. We have also found a high rate of obstetric complications and a high rate of cesarean deliveries. The upward trend in the duration of latency period in all groups over the years of study and the encouraging perinatal survival observed, even in previable PPROM, are incentives to follow expectant/conservative management in these cases.

The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2011-02-15

Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bin Guo

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960–2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD. Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years. Moreover, the 2–3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements.

Analysis of the Nonlinear Trends and Non-Stationary Oscillations of Regional Precipitation in Xinjiang, Northwestern China, Using Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Bin; Chen, Zhongsheng; Guo, Jinyun; Liu, Feng; Chen, Chuanfa; Liu, Kangli

2016-03-21

Changes in precipitation could have crucial influences on the regional water resources in arid regions such as Xinjiang. It is necessary to understand the intrinsic multi-scale variations of precipitation in different parts of Xinjiang in the context of climate change. In this study, based on precipitation data from 53 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1960-2012, we investigated the intrinsic multi-scale characteristics of precipitation variability using an adaptive method named ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). Obvious non-linear upward trends in precipitation were found in the north, south, east and the entire Xinjiang. Changes in precipitation in Xinjiang exhibited significant inter-annual scale (quasi-2 and quasi-6 years) and inter-decadal scale (quasi-12 and quasi-23 years). Moreover, the 2-3-year quasi-periodic fluctuation was dominant in regional precipitation and the inter-annual variation had a considerable effect on the regional-scale precipitation variation in Xinjiang. We also found that there were distinctive spatial differences in variation trends and turning points of precipitation in Xinjiang. The results of this study indicated that compared to traditional decomposition methods, the EEMD method, without using any a priori determined basis functions, could effectively extract the reliable multi-scale fluctuations and reveal the intrinsic oscillation properties of climate elements.

High-speed and supersonic upward plasma drifts: multi-instrumental study

Science.gov (United States)

Astafyeva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.; Hairston, M. R.; Huba, J.; Coley, W. R.

2017-12-01

Since the pioneering observations by Aggson et al. (1992, JGR, doi: 10.1002/92JA00644), there have been several reports of the occurrence of high-speed (Vz>800 m/s) and supersonic plasma flows in the post-sunset (e.g., Hysell et al., 1994, JGR, doi: 10.1029/94JA00476; Hanson et al., 1997, JGR, doi: 10.1029/96JA03376) and the pre-dawn sector (Astafyeva and Zakharenkova, 2015, GRL, doi:10.1002/2015GL066369). However, despite this observational evidence, these events remain rare and are not well understood. The main issue is to determine the background conditions leading to the occurrence of these high-speed plasma drifts. In this work, we perform a multi-instrumental study of high-speed and supersonic upward plasma drift events/structures. For this purpose, we analyze data from several ground-based and space-borne instruments, including data from the DMSP, Swarm and C/NOFS (IVM instrument) satellites. In addition to the space-borne instruments, we use data from ground-based GPS-receivers and ionosondes to further investigate the background ionosphere conditions, as well as the effects produced by the plasma bubbles and ionospheric irregularities. Besides the observations, we add the SAMI3/ESF modeling results on plasma bubble simulations and high-speed drifts inside plasma bubbles. TIE-GCM runs (from the CCMC, https://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov) are used to define the background atmospheric/ionospheric and electrodynamical conditions leading to the occurrence of the high-speed and supersonic plasma drift events. Our search of events with upward plasma drift exceeding 800 m/s in the data of DMSP for the years 2002-2016 shows that such high-speed events are extremely rare. During this period of time, only 6 events were found, two of them occurred during the recovery phase of a geomagnetic storm, while the other four were detected during geomagnetically quiet conditions. Concerning the generation of such events, our preliminary results show that enhanced electric fields are

[Trends in the use of medical and dental services and associations with educational level and private health plan coverage in Brazil, 1998-2013].

Science.gov (United States)

Pilotto, Luciane Maria; Celeste, Roger Keller

2018-03-29

The public-private mix in the Brazilian health system favors double coverage of health services for individuals with private health plans and may aggravate inequities in the use of services. The aim of this study was to describe trends in the use of medical and dental services and associations with schooling and private health coverage. Data were obtained from a national household survey with representative samples in the years 1998, 2003, 2008, and 2013. The study described trends in the use of health services by adults, adjusted by private health coverage, years of schooling, sex, and age. There was an upward trend in the use of health services in adults without a private plan and among adults with a private plan the trend in use varied in a non-linear way. The medical service presented alternation in use over the years and the dental service showed a tendency to decline after 2003. It is necessary to monitor trends in private health coverage and the use of health services to assist government in regulating private plans and avoid increasing inequities among citizens in access to and use of health services.

Education as Literacy for Freedom: Implications for Latin America and the Caribbean from an Upward Bound Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Dottin, Erskine S.

The Upward Bound Project for low income youth in Florida emphasizes humanistic education rather than education based on the capitalistic model of production, consumption, and competition. The project, which can serve as a model for education in developing countries, focuses on creating self-concepts and values to counteract those of an acquisitive…

Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: Who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001–2011

Science.gov (United States)

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-01-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16–64 years old) for the period 2001–2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16–34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16–24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25–34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35–44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16–34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35–44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45–64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16–34 years, may have begun

Performance of screening mammography: A report of the alliance for breast cancer screening in Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Eun Hye [Bucheon Hospital, Soonchunhyang University College of Medicine, Bucheon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Keum Woo [Konyang University Hospital, Konyang University College of Medicine, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Young Joong [Gangneung Asan Hospital, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Gangneung (Korea, Republic of); and others

2016-07-15

To analyze the diagnostic accuracy and trend in screening mammography in Korea. We retrospectively linked the information from hospitals participating in the Alliance of Breast Cancer Screening in Korea (ABCS-K) and the database of the National Cancer Screening Program. We calculated performance indicators, including the recall rate, cancer detection rate (CDR), positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, specificity, false-positive rate (FPR), and interval cancer rate (ICR). Changes in the performance indicators were calculated as the annual percent change with 95% confidence interval (CI). We enrolled 128756 cases from 10 hospitals from 2005 to 2010. The recall rate was 19.1% with a downward trend over time (-12.1% per year; 95% CI, -15.9 to -8.2). The CDR was 2.69 per 1000 examinations, without a significant trend. The PPV was 1.4% with an upward trend (20.8% per year; 95% CI, 15.2 to 26.7). The sensitivity was 86.5% without a significant trend, whereas the specificity was 81.1% with an upward trend (3.3% per year; 95% CI, 2.1 to 4.5). The FPR was 18.9% with a downward trend (-12.4% per year; 95% CI, -16.2 to -8.4). The ICR was 0.5 per 1000 negative examinations without a significant trend. There were institutional variations in the diagnostic accuracy and trend except for the CDR, sensitivity, and ICR. The sensitivity and CDR of screening mammography in the ABCS-K from 2005 to 2010 were compatible with those for Western women. The recall rate, PPV and specificity, however, were suboptimal, although they showed significant improvements over this period. A further analysis is required to explain institutional variations.

Development of a nonlocal convective mixing scheme with varying upward mixing rates for use in air quality and chemical transport models.

Science.gov (United States)

Mihailović, Dragutin T; Alapaty, Kiran; Sakradzija, Mirjana

2008-06-01

Asymmetrical convective non-local scheme (CON) with varying upward mixing rates is developed for simulation of vertical turbulent mixing in the convective boundary layer in air quality and chemical transport models. The upward mixing rate form the surface layer is parameterized using the sensible heat flux and the friction and convective velocities. Upward mixing rates varying with height are scaled with an amount of turbulent kinetic energy in layer, while the downward mixing rates are derived from mass conservation. This scheme provides a less rapid mass transport out of surface layer into other layers than other asymmetrical convective mixing schemes. In this paper, we studied the performance of a nonlocal convective mixing scheme with varying upward mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer and its impact on the concentration of pollutants calculated with chemical and air-quality models. This scheme was additionally compared versus a local eddy-diffusivity scheme (KSC). Simulated concentrations of NO(2) and the nitrate wet deposition by the CON scheme are closer to the observations when compared to those obtained from using the KSC scheme. Concentrations calculated with the CON scheme are in general higher and closer to the observations than those obtained by the KSC scheme (of the order of 15-20%). Nitrate wet deposition calculated with the CON scheme are in general higher and closer to the observations than those obtained by the KSC scheme. To examine the performance of the scheme, simulated and measured concentrations of a pollutant (NO(2)) and nitrate wet deposition was compared for the year 2002. The comparison was made for the whole domain used in simulations performed by the chemical European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme Unified model (version UNI-ACID, rv2.0) where schemes were incorporated.

Bubble Clouds and their Transport within the Surf Zone as Measured with a Distributed Array of Upward-Looking Sonars

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Dahl, Peter

2000-01-01

... in the surf zone and the effects of these bubbles on acoustic propagation. This paper discusses data gathered by the Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, using a set of four upward-looking sonars (frequency 240 kHz...

An investigation on near wall transport characteristics in an adiabatic upward gas-liquid two-phase slug flow

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Donghong; Che, Defu

2007-08-01

The near-wall transport characteristics, inclusive of mass transfer coefficient and wall shear stress, which have a great effect on gas-liquid two-phase flow induced internal corrosion of low alloy pipelines in vertical upward oil and gas mixing transport, have been both mechanistically and experimentally investigated in this paper. Based on the analyses on the hydrodynamic characteristics of an upward slug unit, the mass transfer in the near wall can be divided into four zones, Taylor bubble nose zone, falling liquid film zone, Taylor bubble wake zone and the remaining liquid slug zone; the wall shear stress can be divided into two zones, the positive wall shear stress zone associated with the falling liquid film and the negative wall shear stress zone associated with the liquid slug. Based on the conventional mass transfer and wall shear stress characteristics formulas of single phase liquid full-pipe turbulent flow, corrected normalized mass transfer coefficient formula and wall shear stress formula are proposed. The calculated results are in good agreement with the experimental data. The shear stress and the mass transfer coefficient in the near wall zone are increased with the increase of superficial gas velocity and decreased with the increase of superficial liquid velocity. The mass transfer coefficients in the falling liquid film zone and the wake zone of leading Taylor bubble are lager than those in the Taylor bubble nose zone and the remaining liquid slug zone, and the wall shear stress associated falling liquid film is larger than that associated the liquid slug. The mass transfer coefficient is within 10-3 m/s, and the wall shear stress below 103 Pa. It can be concluded that the alternate wall shear stress due to upward gas-liquid slug flow is considered to be the major cause of the corrosion production film fatigue cracking.

Wind power price trends in the United States: Struggling to remain competitive in the face of strong growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolinger, Mark; Wiser, Ryan

2009-01-01

The amount of wind power capacity being installed globally is surging, with the United States the world leader in terms of annual market share for three years running (2005-2007). The rapidly growing market for wind has been a double-edged sword, however, as the resulting supply-demand imbalance in wind turbines, along with the rising cost of materials and weakness in the US dollar, has put upward pressure on wind turbine costs, and ultimately, wind power prices. Two mitigating factors-reductions in the cost of equity provided to wind projects and improvements in project-level capacity factors-have helped to relieve some of the upward pressure on wind power prices over the last few years. Because neither of these two factors can be relied upon to further cushion the blow going forward, policymakers should recognize that continued financial support may be necessary to sustain the wind sector at its current pace of development, at least in the near term. Though this article emphasizes developments in the US market for wind power, those trends are similar to, and hold implications for, the worldwide wind power market

Upward continuation of Dome-C airborne gravity and comparison with GOCE gradients at orbit altitude in east Antarctica

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yildiz, Hasan; Forsberg, René; Tscherning, Carl Christian

2017-01-01

spherical harmonic models confirmed the quality of the airborne data and that they contain more high-frequency signal than the global models. First, the airborne gravity data were upward continued to GOCE altitude to predict gravity gradients in the local North-East-Up reference frame. In this step...

Far-zone contributions of airborne gravity anomalies' upward/downward continuation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Boyang Zhou

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Airborne gravimetry has become a vital technique in local gravity field approximation, and upward/downward continuation of gravity data is a key process of airborne gravimetry. In these procedures, the integral domain is divided into two parts, namely the near-zone and the far-zone. The far-zone contributions are approximated by the truncation coefficients and a global geo-potential model, and their values are controlled by several issues. This paper investigates the effects of flight height, the size of near-zone cap, and Remove-Compute-Restore (RCR technique upon far-zone contributions. Results show that at mountainous area the far-zone contributions can be ignored when EIGEN-6C of 360 degree is removed from the gravity data, together with a near-zone cap of 1° and a flight height less than 10 km, while at flat area EIGEN-6C of 180 degree is feasible.

Drift-flux parameters for upward gas flow in stagnant liquid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kataoka, Yoshiyuki; Suzuki, Hiroaki; Murase, Michio

1987-01-01

The drift-flux model is widely used for gas-liquid two phase flow analysis, because it is applicable to various flow patterns and a wide range of void fractions. The drift-flux parameters for upward gas flow in stagnant liquid, however, have not been well examined. In this study, the distribution parameter C o and the drift velocity V gj for stagnant liquid were derived from the void fraction correlation and boundary conditions of drift-flux parameters, and then compared with C o and V gj for high liquid velocities. Also using the two region model where a circular flow area was divided into an inner region of cocurrent up-flow and an outer annulus region of liquid down flow, C o and V gj for stagnant liquid and for high liquid velocity were compared. The results showed that C o values for stagnant liquid were larger than values for high liquid velocity, while V gj values were almost the same for both cases. (author)

[Secular trends of height among Chinese students aged 17 in 18 ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010].

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Yi; Hu, Pei-jin; Zhang, Bing; Ma, Jun

2015-06-18

To analyze the secular trends of height among Chinese students aged 17 in different ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010. A total of 18 Chinese ethnic minorities' students, including Mongolian, Hui, Uygur, Zhuang, Korean, Tibetan, Miao, Buyi, Dong, Bai, Tujia, Hani, Dai, Lisu, Wa, Nakhi, Tu and Qiang as subjects were sampled from the 1985, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010 Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health. The heights of 17 years old people by gender in various ethnic minorities were analyzed and compared. From 1985 to 2010, the increments of adult heights increased significantly in many ethnic minorities' boys. In 2010, the average height of boys aged 17 years in each minority group was higher than 162 cm and was higher than 170 cm among boys from Hui, Mongolian and Korean groups. The ethnics with height growth rates of more than 2 cm per decade in boys were Hui (2.64 cm/decade) and Dong (2.05 cm/decade) and the ethnics with height growth rates of more than 1 cm per decade were Korean (1.99 cm/decade), Tibetan (1.90 cm/decade), Hani (1.80 cm/decade) and the other 9 minority groups. The average height of girls aged 17 years in each minority group was higher than 150 cm in 2010. The heights showed an upward trend in 15 minority groups, but with different degrees. The ethnics with height growth rates of more than 1 cm per decade were Hui (1.56 cm/decade) and Korean (1.29 cm/decade). The increments that were significant between 1985 and 2010 were Hui (3.89 cm), Korean (3.23 cm), Dong (2.35 cm) and the other 6 minority groups (Pminority groups during the past 25 years, but there was an obvious disequilibrium among various ethnic minorities. We should pay more attention to the minority groups with poor growth and give them more help. Meanwhile, we should also pay attention to the negative effects of the secular growth trend on those minority groups with fast increasing adult height.

A study of upward going particles with the Extreme Energy Events telescopes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abbrescia, M. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Bari, Bari (Italy); Avanzini, C.; Baldini, L. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Ferroli, R. Baldini [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Frascati (RM) (Italy); Batignani, G. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Bencivenni, G. [INFN Laboratori Nazionali di Frascati, Frascati (RM) (Italy); Bossini, E. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN Gruppo Collegato di Siena and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Siena, Siena (Italy); Chiavassa, A. [INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Torino, Torino (Italy); Cicalo, C. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Cagliari, Cagliari (Italy); Cifarelli, L. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Bologna, Bologna (Italy); Coccia, E. [INFN and Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Roma Tor Vergata, Roma (Italy); Corvaglia, A. [Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche E. Fermi, Roma (Italy); INFN and Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università del Salento, Lecce (Italy); and others

2016-04-21

In this paper the first study of the upward going events detected by the telescopes of the Extreme Energy Event (EEE) project is reported. The EEE project consists of a detector array of Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers located at selected sites on the Italian territory. During autumn 2014 the first coordinated data taking period took place and around one billion candidate tracks were collected. Among them, of particular interest is the sample of particles which cross the telescopes from below. The results obtained demonstrate that the EEE telescopes can distinguish the electrons produced as decay products of cosmic muons stopped in the ground, or in the last chamber of the telescopes themselves, confirming the excellent performance of the system for the investigation of intriguing cosmic phenomena.

A study of upward going particles with the Extreme Energy Events telescopes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abbrescia, M.; Avanzini, C.; Baldini, L.; Ferroli, R. Baldini; Batignani, G.; Bencivenni, G.; Bossini, E.; Chiavassa, A.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Coccia, E.; Corvaglia, A.

2016-01-01

In this paper the first study of the upward going events detected by the telescopes of the Extreme Energy Event (EEE) project is reported. The EEE project consists of a detector array of Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers located at selected sites on the Italian territory. During autumn 2014 the first coordinated data taking period took place and around one billion candidate tracks were collected. Among them, of particular interest is the sample of particles which cross the telescopes from below. The results obtained demonstrate that the EEE telescopes can distinguish the electrons produced as decay products of cosmic muons stopped in the ground, or in the last chamber of the telescopes themselves, confirming the excellent performance of the system for the investigation of intriguing cosmic phenomena.

Trends in Pinus ponderosa foliar pigment concentration due to chronic exposure of ozone and acid rain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neuman, L.; Houpis, J.; Anderson, P.

1991-01-01

To determine the effects of ozone and acid rain on mature Ponderosa pine trees, Lawrence Livermore National Lab. has collaborated with University of California Berkeley, University of California Davis, California State University Chico, and the US Forest Service at the latter's Chico Tree Improvement Center. Foliar tissue from mature grafted scions of Pinus ponderosa were exposed to two times ambient ozone for ten months and to acid rain (3.0 pH) weekly for 10 weeks using branch exposure chambers. Pigment extracts were analyzed spectrophotometrically for concentrations of chlorophylls a and b, and carotenoid pigments, at 662 nm, 644 nm, and 470 nm, respectively. Pigment concentrations were expressed on a surface area basis. Preliminary results revealed that chlorophyll a showed a downward trend due to the ozone treatment. Acid rain caused no effects on these three pigments, however, chlorophyll b showed an upward trend due to the interaction of ozone and acid rain. The carotenoid pigments showed no changes due to the treatments either singly, or in combination

Future trends in computer waste generation in India.

Science.gov (United States)

Dwivedy, Maheshwar; Mittal, R K

2010-11-01

The objective of this paper is to estimate the future projection of computer waste in India and to subsequently analyze their flow at the end of their useful phase. For this purpose, the study utilizes the logistic model-based approach proposed by Yang and Williams to forecast future trends in computer waste. The model estimates future projection of computer penetration rate utilizing their first lifespan distribution and historical sales data. A bounding analysis on the future carrying capacity was simulated using the three parameter logistic curve. The observed obsolete generation quantities from the extrapolated penetration rates are then used to model the disposal phase. The results of the bounding analysis indicate that in the year 2020, around 41-152 million units of computers will become obsolete. The obsolete computer generation quantities are then used to estimate the End-of-Life outflows by utilizing a time-series multiple lifespan model. Even a conservative estimate of the future recycling capacity of PCs will reach upwards of 30 million units during 2025. Apparently, more than 150 million units could be potentially recycled in the upper bound case. However, considering significant future investment in the e-waste recycling sector from all stakeholders in India, we propose a logistic growth in the recycling rate and estimate the requirement of recycling capacity between 60 and 400 million units for the lower and upper bound case during 2025. Finally, we compare the future obsolete PC generation amount of the US and India. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Breeding Status and Population Trends of Golden Eagles in Northeastern Québec, Canada

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Morneau

2012-12-01

Full Text Available In North America, it is hypothesized that the Golden Eagle's (Aquila chrysaetos eastern population declined during the period 1946-1973 because of organochlorine pesticides and other anthropogenic causes of mortality. Since 1970, upward trends for the species have been observed at most eastern hawkwatches. To determine whether such positive trends can be observed on breeding grounds, Golden Eagle counts were performed to monitor nesting territory occupancy between 1994 and 2007 in the Moisie and Sainte-Marguerite River valleys, northeastern Québec. Aerial surveys were conducted during seven of the 14 years. During this period, the number of known nesting territories in the study area increased from 10 to 20, while the number of pairs rose from six to 14. The increase is attributed mostly to investigators' improved experience in finding nests and to their greater familiarity with the study area, and possibly to the growth of the regional population. Occupancy of nesting territories by pairs was very stable over the years. Annual mean % of laying pairs (or laying rate was 48.0 (SD = 19.9, and productivity (mean number of fledglings per pair was 0.49 (SD = 0.35.

Two-phase upward air water flow in a prismatic channel with rectangular base

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carvalho Tofani, P. de

1984-01-01

Two-phase liquid-gas mixtures provide suitable means to simulate water-water vapor flows, which may occur in nuclear reactor cores. The mastery of physical transport phenomena is of great importance, as far as the analysis of such thermal systems is concerned. Within the framework of thermal-hydraulic programs, experiments have been carried out to investigate the two-phase upward air-water flow structure, in a rectangular test section, by using independent measuring techniques, which comprise direct viewing and photography, electrical probes and gamma-ray attenuation. In this paper, flow pattern maps and correlations for flow pattern transitions, void fraction profiles, liquid film thickness and superficial average void fraction are proposed and compared to available data. (Author) [pt

Spatiotemporal changes of freezing/thawing indices and their response to recent climate change on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2013

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Tonghua; Qin, Yanhui; Wu, Xiaodong; Li, Ren; Zou, Defu; Xie, Changwei

2018-05-01

The spatial and temporal changes of the ground surface freezing indices (GFIs), ground surface thawing indices (GTIs), air freezing indices (AFIs), and air thawing indices (ATIs) in permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) were analyzed based on the daily ground surface and air temperatures from 69 meteorological stations using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimate. The spatial patterns of the freezing indices (FIs) and thawing indices (TIs) are nearly negatively correlated. On the annual scale, the GFI and GTI are greater than the AFI and ATI in both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. The marked upward and downward trends have been observed for the time series of TI and FI, respectively, since 1998 on the QTP. Moreover, GFI and AFI decrease more significantly in permafrost regions than in seasonally frozen ground regions; the increasing rate of GTI and ATI in the seasonally frozen ground regions is greater than that in the permafrost regions. In permafrost regions, the downward trend of FI is greater than the upward trend of TI. However, the upward trend of TI shows a more drastic change than the FI in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The results indicate that the warming in the permafrost regions is more pronounced in winter than in the other seasons. The summer warming is more pronounced than the other seasons in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The decreasing rate of AFI and GFI increases as the altitude rises, while they decrease with increasing ATI. The average decreasing rate of GFI is greater than that of the AFI in different altitudinal zones. The greatest decrease of FI occurs in permafrost regions in the hinterland of the QTP, which indicates the dominant winter warming in this region. The downward trend of FI and upward trend of TI are responsible for the reported permafrost degradation on the QTP.

Historic trends in the service sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1992-01-01

Across regions, the service sector accounts for a relatively small share of final energy use: about 10% in the OECD countries, 5% in the Former East Bloc, and even less in most LDCs. In all of the above groups, however, it accounts for a larger share of electricity than of energy use: about 25% in the OECD countries, and about 13% in the LDC. In the United States and Japan, and in some of the wealthier LDCs, its electricity use is driving peak demand. Service-sector energy use in nine OECD countries increased by 15% between 1973 and 1988, but the aggregate energy intensity declined by around 25%. The trends were very different for fuel intensity, which fell by approximately 40%, and for electricity intensity, which rose slightly. The drop in fuel intensity was mainly due to considerable retrofitting of buildings and improved energy management practices, though entry of new, more energy-efficient buildings into the stock also played a role. There was also a trend away from fuel-based to electric heating in some countries. Electricity intensity was primarily shaped by two forces working in opposite directions. Addition of more office equipment pushed upward on intensity, while improvements in end-use efficiency, especially for lighting, pushed downward. The service sector accounts for only a small share of total energy use in the Former East Bloc and the LDCs. In the USSR, there is some evidence of a slight decline in fuel intensity and an increase in electricity intensity, although the latter is quite low by Western standards. Services electricity intensity has risen considerably in most LDCs due largely to addition of modern, air-conditioned buildings. 4 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs

Over two decades of Plasmodium knowlesi infections in Sarawak: Trend and forecast.

Science.gov (United States)

Ooi, Choo Huck; Bujang, Mohamad Adam; Tg Abu Bakar Sidik, Tg Mohd Ikhwan; Ngui, Romano; Lim, Yvonne Ai-Lian

2017-12-01

Malaria is still of great public health concern, especially in Malaysian Borneo. The aim of this study was to determine the trends of P. knowlesi infection in Sarawak, Malaysia and to forecast the incidence of P. knowlesi until the year 2040. Data on P. knowlesi malaria cases from 1992 to the year 2014 were obtained from the Sarawak Health Department, Malaysia. ARIMA model was applied to forecast the future incidence of P. knowlesi infection. The data for the whole of Sarawak and subsequently the selected six districts which have high incidence rates of P. knowlesi infection were analyzed. Results of the analysis showed that there was an increasing trend of P. knowlesi cases from the year 1992-2014 (p<0.001). The trend in the incidence started to increase in the year 2008 (p=0.029). The incidence rate per 100,000 populations was between 4.15 in the year 1992 and 42.03 in the year 2014. High incidence of P. knowlesi infections has been detected in the districts adjacent to each other within the interior region of Sarawak. The forecasted incidence and incidence rate per 100,000 populations in the year 2020 were 1229 and 44.04, respectively, while those in the year 2040 were 2056 and 62.91, respectively. The forecasted incidence showed an upward trend highlighting an urgent need to draw up strategic and holistic prevention plans to limit further the increase in P. knowlesi morbidity and mortality in Sarawak. It is imperative that these measures are customized taking into consideration the challenges faced in the interior areas of Sarawak and the behavior of the main vector of P. knowlesi (i.e., An. latens) in Sarawak. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Inequalities of caries experience in Nevada youth expressed by DMFT index vs. Significant Caries Index (SiC) over time.

Science.gov (United States)

Ditmyer, Marcia; Dounis, Georgia; Mobley, Connie; Schwarz, Eli

2011-04-05

With the increasingly polarized distribution of dental caries among children and adolescents, the usual DMFT measure has become a less meaningful population descriptor. To re-focus on identifying the high caries prevalence group the Significant Caries Index (SiC) was created. The aims of this study were to analyze the prevalence and severity of dental caries in Nevada youth over a period of eight years and to compare its expression by means of DMFT and SiC; analyze the caries trends in the population and their underlying factors, and determine whether Nevada youth were at risk for significantly high levels of dental caries. Retrospective data was analyzed from a series of sequential, standardized oral health surveys across eight years (2001/2002-2008/2009) that included over 62,000 examinations of adolescents 13-19 years of age, attending public/private Nevada schools. Mean Decayed-Missing-Filled Teeth index (DMFT) and Significant Caries Index (SiC) were subsequently computed for each academic year. Descriptive statistics were reported for analysis of comparative DMFT and SiC scores in relation to age, gender, racial background, and residence in a fluoridated/non-fluoridated community. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the differential impact of the variables on the probability of being in the high caries prevalence group. Comparison of students' mean DMFT to National (NHANES) data confirmed that dental caries remains a common chronic disease among Nevada youth, presenting higher prevalence rates and greater mean scores than the national averages. Downward trends were found across all demographics compared between survey years 1 and 6 with the exception of survey year 3. An upward trend began in survey year six. Over time, the younger group displayed an increasing proportion of caries free individuals while a decreasing proportion was found among older examinees. As expected, the mean SiC score was significantly higher than DMFT scores within each

Franchise Values in North American Professional Sports Leagues: Evidence from a Repeat Sales Method

OpenAIRE

Brad R. Humphreys; Yang Seung Lee

2009-01-01

The paper develops a quality adjusted professional sports franchise price index for North America based on a repeat sale method. This index reflects trends in the general price of sports franchises holding local market, facility, and team characteristics constant. The price index exhibits considerable volatility but no upward trend over time, unlike previous quality adjusted price indexes based on hedonic models in the literature. The lack of an upward trend in this quality adjusted price ind...

Trends in US malpractice payments in dentistry compared to other health professions - dentistry payments increase, others fall.

Science.gov (United States)

Nalliah, R P

2017-01-13

Background Little is known about trends in the number of malpractice payments made against dentists and other health professionals. Knowledge of these trends will inform the work of our professional organisations.Methods The National Practitioner Data Bank (NPDB) in the United States was utilised. Data about malpractice payments against dentists, hygienists, nurses, optometrists, pharmacists, physicians (DO and MD), physicians' assistants, podiatrists, psychologists, therapists and counsellors during 2004-14 were studied. Variables include type of healthcare provider, year malpractice payment was made and range of payment amount.Results In 2004 there were 17,532 malpractice payments against the studied health professions. In 2014 there were 11,650. In 2004, the number of malpractice payments against dentists represented 10.3% of all payments and in 2014 it represented 13.4%. Number of malpractice payments against dentists in 2012-2014 increased from 1,388 to 1,555.Conclusions There is an upward pressure on the number of dental malpractice payments over the last 3 years. Concurrently, there is a downward pressure on the number of combined non-dentist healthcare professional malpractice payments.

Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Farber, G.; Matthes, H. [Gesellschaft fuer Anlagen- und Reaktorsicherheit (GRS) mbH, Koln (Germany)

2001-07-01

In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

Frequencies and trends of significant characteristics of reported events in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farber, G.; Matthes, H.

2001-01-01

In the frame of its support to the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety the GRS continuously performs in-depth technical analyses of reported events at operating nuclear power reactors in Germany which can be used for the determination of plant weaknesses with regard to reactor safety. During the last 18 months, in addition to those activities, the GRS has developed a data bank model for the statistical assessment of events. This model is based on a hierarchically structured, detailed coding system with respect to technical and safety relevant characteristics of the plants and the systematic characterization of plant-specific events. The data bank model is ready for practical application. Results of a first statistical evaluation, taking into account the data sets from the time period 1996 to 1999, are meanwhile available. By increasing the amount of data it will become possible to herewith improve the statements concerning trends of safety aspects. This report describes the coding system, the evaluation model, the data input and the evaluations performed during the period beginning in April 2000. (authors)

Removal of heavy metals from kaolin using an upward electrokinetic soil remedial (UESR) technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, J.-Y.; Huang, X.-J.; Kao, Jimmy C.M.; Stabnikova, Olena

2006-01-01

An upward electrokinetic soil remedial (UESR) technology was proposed to remove heavy metals from contaminated kaolin. Unlike conventional electrokinetic treatment that uses boreholes or trenches for horizontal migration of heavy metals, the UESR technology, applying vertical non-uniform electric fields, caused upward transportation of heavy metals to the top surface of the treated soil. The effects of current density, treatment duration, cell diameter, and different cathode chamber influent (distilled water or 0.01 M nitric acid) were studied. The removal efficiencies of heavy metals positively correlated to current density and treatment duration. Higher heavy metals removal efficiency was observed for the reactor cell with smaller diameter. A substantial amount of heavy metals was accumulated in the nearest to cathode 2 cm layer of kaolin when distilled water was continuously supplied to the cathode chamber. Heavy metals accumulated in this layer of kaolin can be easily excavated and disposed off. The main part of the removed heavy metals was dissolved in cathode chamber influent and moved away with cathode chamber effluent when 0.01 M nitric acid was used, instead of distilled water. Energy saving treatment by UESR technology with highest metal removal efficiencies was provided by two regimes: (1) by application of 0.01 M nitric acid as cathode chamber influent, cell diameter of 100 mm, duration of 18 days, and constant voltage of 3.5 V (19.7 kWh/m 3 of kaolin) and (2) by application of 0.01 M nitric acid as cathode chamber influent, cell diameter of 100 cm, duration of 6 days, and constant current density of 0.191 mA/cm 2 (19.1 kWh/m 3 of kaolin)

Development of time-trend model for analysing and predicting case pattern of dog bite injury induced rabies-like-illness in Liberia, 2014-2017.

Science.gov (United States)

Jomah, N D; Ojo, J F; Odigie, E A; Olugasa, B O

2014-12-01

The post-civil war records of dog bite injuries (DBI) and rabies-like-illness (RLI) among humans in Liberia is a vital epidemiological resource for developing a predictive model to guide the allocation of resources towards human rabies control. Whereas DBI and RLI are high, they are largely under-reported. The objective of this study was to develop a time model of the case-pattern and apply it to derive predictors of time-trend point distribution of DBI-RLI cases. A retrospective 6 years data of DBI distribution among humans countrywide were converted to quarterly series using a transformation technique of Minimizing Squared First Difference statistic. The generated dataset was used to train a time-trend model of the DBI-RLI syndrome in Liberia. An additive detenninistic time-trend model was selected due to its performance compared to multiplication model of trend and seasonal movement. Parameter predictors were run on least square method to predict DBI cases for a prospective 4 years period, covering 2014-2017. The two-stage predictive model of DBI case-pattern between 2014 and 2017 was characterised by a uniform upward trend within Liberia's coastal and hinterland Counties over the forecast period. This paper describes a translational application of the time-trend distribution pattern of DBI epidemics, 2008-2013 reported in Liberia, on which a predictive model was developed. A computationally feasible two-stage time-trend permutation approach is proposed to estimate the time-trend parameters and conduct predictive inference on DBI-RLI in Liberia.

Method of online cleanliness control for upward-facing transport mirrors in integration test bed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Longbiao; Qin Lang; Zhou Guorui; Ye Yayun; Zhang Chuanchao; Miao Xinxiang; Wang Hongbin; Yuan Xiaodong; Wang Xiaohong; Cheng Xiaofeng

2013-01-01

An online cleanliness control method based on the online monitoring system was developed for controlling the particle pollution and damage of upward-facing transport mirrors in the integration test bed. By building up gas knife system, the online cleanliness processing was effectively achieved for the particle pollution on the mirror surface. By using the gas screen, the cleanliness of the mirror surface was effectively online maintained. The image processing system was applied to assessing the effect of online cleanliness processing. The experimental results indicate that the particle pollution was reduced by the gas knife and the gas screen was useful to avoid the settlement of particle pollution. (authors)

Global sea turtle conservation successes.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazaris, Antonios D; Schofield, Gail; Gkazinou, Chrysoula; Almpanidou, Vasiliki; Hays, Graeme C

2017-09-01

We document a tendency for published estimates of population size in sea turtles to be increasing rather than decreasing across the globe. To examine the population status of the seven species of sea turtle globally, we obtained 299 time series of annual nesting abundance with a total of 4417 annual estimates. The time series ranged in length from 6 to 47 years (mean, 16.2 years). When levels of abundance were summed within regional management units (RMUs) for each species, there were upward trends in 12 RMUs versus downward trends in 5 RMUs. This prevalence of more upward than downward trends was also evident in the individual time series, where we found 95 significant increases in abundance and 35 significant decreases. Adding to this encouraging news for sea turtle conservation, we show that even small sea turtle populations have the capacity to recover, that is, Allee effects appear unimportant. Positive trends in abundance are likely linked to the effective protection of eggs and nesting females, as well as reduced bycatch. However, conservation concerns remain, such as the decline in leatherback turtles in the Eastern and Western Pacific. Furthermore, we also show that, often, time series are too short to identify trends in abundance. Our findings highlight the importance of continued conservation and monitoring efforts that underpin this global conservation success story.

Evidence for Upward Flow of Saline Water from Depth into the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer in Southeastern Arkansas

Science.gov (United States)

Larsen, D.; Paul, J.

2017-12-01

Groundwater salinization is occurring in the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial (MRVA) aquifer in southeastern Arkansas (SE AR). Water samples from the MRVA aquifer in Chicot and Desha counties have yielded elevated Cl-concentrations with some as high as 1,639 mg/L. Considering that the MRVA aquifer is the principle source of irrigation water for the agricultural economy of SE AR, salinization needs to be addressed to ensure the sustainability of crop, groundwater, and soil resources in the area. The origin of elevated salinity in MRVA aquifer was investigated using spatial and factor analysis of historical water quality data, and sampling and tracer analysis of groundwater from irrigation, municipal, and flowing industrial wells in SE AR. Spatial analysis of Cl- data in relation to soil type, geomorphic features and sand-blow density indicate that the Cl- anomalies are more closely related to the sand-blow density than soil data, suggesting an underlying tectonic control for the distribution of salinity. Factor analysis of historical geochemical data from the MRVA and underlying Sparta aquifer shows dilute and saline groups, with saline groups weighted positively with Cl- or Na+ and Cl-. Tracer data suggest a component of evaporatively evolved crustal water of pre-modern age has mixed with younger, fresher meteoric sources in SE AR to create the saline conditions in the MRVA aquifer. Stable hydrogen and oxygen values of waters sampled from the Tertiary Sparta and MRVA aquifers deviate from the global and local meteoric water lines along an evaporative trend (slope=4.4) and mixing line with Eocene Wilcox Group groundwaters. Ca2+ and Cl- contents vary with Br- along mixing trends between dilute MRVA water and Jurassic Smackover Formation pore fluids in southern AR. Increasing Cl- content with C-14 age in MRVA aquifer groundwater suggests that the older waters are more saline. Helium isotope ratios decrease with He gas content for more saline water, consistent with

Morphology study of thoracic transverse processes and its significance in pedicle-rib unit screw fixation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Xin-gang; Cai, Jin-fang; Sun, Jian-min; Jiang, Zhen-song

2015-03-01

Thoracic transverse process is an important anatomic structure of the spine. Several anatomic studies have investigated the adjacent structures of the thoracic transverse process. But there is still a blank on the morphology of the thoracic transverse processes. The purpose of the cadaveric study is to investigate the morphology of thoracic transverse processes and to provide morphology basis for the pedicle-rib unit (extrapedicular) screw fixation method. Forty-five adult dehydrated skeletons (T1-T10) were included in this study. The length, width, thickness, and the tilt angle (upward and backward) of the thoracic transverse process were measured. The data were then analyzed statistically. On the basis of the morphometric study, 5 fresh cadavers were used to place screws from transverse processes to the vertebral body in the thoracic spine, and then observed by the naked eye and on computed tomography scans. The lengths of thoracic transverse processes were between 16.63±1.59 and 18.10±1.95 mm; the longest was at T7, and the shortest was at T10. The widths of thoracic transverse processes were between 11.68±0.80 and 12.87±1.48 mm; the widest was at T3, and the narrowest was at T7. The thicknesses of thoracic transverse processes were between 7.86±1.24 and 10.78±1.35 mm; the thickest was at T1, and the thinnest was at T7. The upward tilt angles of thoracic transverse processes were between 24.9±3.1 and 3.0±1.56 degrees; the maximal upward tilt angle was at T1, and the minimal upward tilt angle was at T7. The upward tilt angles of T1 and T2 were obviously different from the other thoracic transverse processes (Ptransverse processes gradually increased from 24.5±2.91 degrees at T1 to 64.5±5.12 degrees at T10. The backward tilt angles were significantly different between each other, except between T5 and T6. In the validation study, screws were all placed successfully from transverse processes to the vertebrae of thoracic spine. The length, width, and

Epidemiology of Trichomoniasis in South Korea and Increasing Trend in Incidence, Health Insurance Review and Assessment 2009-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Joo, So-Young; Goo, Youn-Kyoung; Ryu, Jae-Sook; Lee, Sang-Eun; Lee, Won Kee; Chung, Dong-Il; Hong, Yeonchul

2016-01-01

Trichomoniasis, which is caused by Trichomonas vaginalis, is one of the most common non-viral sexually transmitted infections; however, limited population-based data are available that describe patterns and trends of the disease. We summarized insurance claims of trichomoniasis cases reported during 2009-2014 to South Korea Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. The average annual incidence in South Korea was 276.8 persons per 100,000 population, and a substantial sex-associated variation was observed. The incidence rate among female subjects trended upward over 6 years, that is, it increased from 501 in 2009 to 625.8 in 2014 per 100,000 female population, which indicates a 25% overall increase. This trend was sharpest in the ≥60 years group of female population. However, a 66% decrease in incidence rates was observed among male subjects (23.7 in 2009 to 15.7 in 2014 per 100,000 male population). Further, substantial decrease was observed in the ≥40 years groups of male population. The incidence of trichomoniasis varied across regions and was the highest in Jeju province of South Korea. Overall, as the incidence of trichomoniasis appears to have increased in South Korea during 2009-2014, the disease burden is increasing; hence, there is a need to better understand the disease transmission.

Characterization and adequacy of the use of radiotherapy and its trend in time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palacios Eito, Amalia; Cabezas, Sonia García; Font Ugalde, Pilar; Rivin del Campo, Eleonor; Otero Romero, Ana; Mar Pérez Martín, María del; Roldán Arjona, Juan Manuel; Martínez Paredes, María

2013-01-01

Background and purpose: Characterization of radiotherapy activity and its trend over time. Gathering of parameters for future planning of our resources, applicable to similar population areas. Performing a clinical audit of appropriate use of radiotherapy. Material and methods: Analysis of 9782 patients treated between 1998 and 2008. Descriptive statistics of pathologies and social/demographic characteristics. Intention of treatment. The rate of radiotherapy utilization was estimated and compared with those considered optimal. Rate of reirradiation. Results: The average global rate of radiotherapy utilization for the period was 32.7%. It increased by 23% between 1998 and 2008, while the population of the area rose by 1.04%, equaling an average 1.13 irradiations/1000 inhabitants/year. Radiation treatment has increased by 13.6, 2.3, 1.6 and 1.06 times in patients with prostate, breast, rectal and lung cancer, respectively. Eight percent of radiotherapy treatments involve concurrent chemotherapy. The proportion of treatments with palliative intent was 18.2%. The overall underutilization of radiation therapy in our environment was an estimated 13.4%. Conclusions: The grade of adequacy of radiation rates in relation with scientific evidence was globally considered suboptimal, especially in lung cancer. There was an upward trend of irradiation in breast and prostate cancer, tending toward rates considered optimal

Experimental heat transfer to supercritical carbon dioxide flowing upward vertical tube with highly conducting surroundings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Son, Hyung M.; Suh, Kune Y.

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Performed experiment for the upward SCO 2 flow surrounded by highly conducting metal. ► Selected dimensionless groups representing the property variations and buoyancy. ► Developed the heat transfer correlation for the mixed thermal boundary condition. ► Wrote a finite element heat transfer code to find the appropriate correlation. ► Coupled the 1D convection and 2D heat conduction via heat transfer coefficient. - Abstract: This paper presents heat transfer characteristics of supercritical carbon dioxide flow inside vertical circular pipe surrounded by highly conducting material, and develops an adequate tool to test the performance of available heat transfer correlations with. The possible situations are illustrated for the nuclear power plant to which the above-mentioned geometric configuration might be applicable. An experimental loop with vertical circular geometry is designed and constructed to test the upward flow in supercritical state when the axial heat transfer is enhanced by the surrounding metals, resulting in a wall boundary condition between the constant heat flux and temperature. The set of correlations and important findings are critically reviewed from extensive literature survey. Incorporating nondimensional groups resorting to past insights from the available literature, a convective heat transfer correlation is proposed. The optimization procedure is described which utilizes a random walk method along with the in-house finite element heat transfer code to determine the coefficients of the proposed heat transfer correlation. The proposed methodology can be applied to evaluation of heat transfer when the heat transfer coefficient data cannot directly be determined from the experiment.

Long-term trends of surface-water mercury and methylmercury concentrations downstream of historic mining within the Carson River watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Morway, Eric D; Thodal, Carl E; Marvin-DiPasquale, Mark

2017-10-01

The Carson River is a vital water resource for local municipalities and migratory birds travelling the Pacific Flyway. Historic mining practices that used mercury (Hg) to extract gold from Comstock Lode ore has left much of the river system heavily contaminated with Hg, a practice that continues in many parts of the world today. Between 1998 and 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) collected and analyzed Carson River water for Hg and methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations resulting in a sixteen year record of unfiltered total mercury (uf.THg), filtered (dissolved) Hg (f.THg), total methylmercury (uf.MeHg), filtered MeHg (f.MeHg), and particulate-bound THg (p.THg) and MeHg (p.MeHg) concentrations. This represents one of the longest continuous records of Hg speciation data for any riverine system, thereby providing a unique opportunity to evaluate long-term trends in concentrations and annual loads. During the period of analysis, uf.THg concentration and load trended downward at rates of -0.85% and -1.8% per year, respectively. Conversely, the f.THg concentration increased at a rate of 1.7% per year between 1998 and 2005, and 4.9% per year between 2005 and 2013. Trends in flow-normalized partition coefficients for both Hg and MeHg suggest a statistically significant shift from the particulate to the filtered phase. The upwardly accelerating f.THg concentration and observed shift from the solid phase to the aqueous phase among the pools of Hg and MeHg within the river water column signals an increased risk of deteriorating ecological conditions in the lower basin with respect to Hg contamination. More broadly, the 16-year trend analysis, completed 140 years after the commencement of major Hg releases to the Carson River, provides a poignant example of the ongoing legacy left behind by gold and silver mining techniques that relied on Hg amalgamation, and a cautionary tale for regions still pursuing the practice in other countries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Modeling on bubbly to churn flow pattern transition for vertical upward flows in narrow rectangular channel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Yanlin; Chen Bingde; Huang Yanping; Wang Junfeng

2011-01-01

A theoretical model was developed to predict the bubbly to churn flow pattern transition for vertical upward flows in narrow rectangular channel. The model was developed based on the imbalance theory of Helmholtz and some reasonable assumptions. The maximum ideal bubble in narrow rectangular channel and the thermal hydraulics boundary condition leading to bubbly flow to churn flow pattern transition was calculated. The model was validated by experimental data from previous researches. Comparison between predicted result and experimental result shows a reasonable good agreement. (author)

Prediction of the critical heat flux for saturated upward flow boiling water in vertical narrow rectangular channels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Gil Sik; Chang, Soon Heung; Jeong, Yong Hoon

2016-01-01

A study, on the theoretical method to predict the critical heat flux (CHF) of saturated upward flow boiling water in vertical narrow rectangular channels, has been conducted. For the assessment of this CHF prediction method, 608 experimental data were selected from the previous researches, in which the heated sections were uniformly heated from both wide surfaces under the high pressure condition over 41 bar. For this purpose, representative previous liquid film dryout (LFD) models for circular channels were reviewed by using 6058 points from the KAIST CHF data bank. This shows that it is reasonable to define the initial condition of quality and entrainment fraction at onset of annular flow (OAF) as the transition to annular flow regime and the equilibrium value, respectively, and the prediction error of the LFD model is dependent on the accuracy of the constitutive equations of droplet deposition and entrainment. In the modified Levy model, the CHF data are predicted with standard deviation (SD) of 14.0% and root mean square error (RMSE) of 14.1%. Meanwhile, in the present LFD model, which is based on the constitutive equations developed by Okawa et al., the entire data are calculated with SD of 17.1% and RMSE of 17.3%. Because of its qualitative prediction trend and universal calculation convergence, the present model was finally selected as the best LFD model to predict the CHF for narrow rectangular channels. For the assessment of the present LFD model for narrow rectangular channels, effective 284 data were selected. By using the present LFD model, these data are predicted with RMSE of 22.9% with the dryout criterion of zero-liquid film flow, but RMSE of 18.7% with rivulet formation model. This shows that the prediction error of the present LFD model for narrow rectangular channels is similar with that for circular channels.

Actively Coping with Violation: Exploring Upward Dissent Patterns in Functional, Dysfunctional, and Deserted Psychological Contract End States

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

René Schalk

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Recently, scholars have emphasized the importance of examining how employees cope with psychological contract violation and how the coping process contributes to psychological contract violation resolution and post-violation psychological contracts. Recent work points to the important role of problem-focused coping. Yet, to date, problem-focused coping strategies have not been conceptualized on a continuum from constructive to destructive strategies. Consequently, potential differences in the use of specific types of problem-focused coping strategies and the role these different strategies play in the violation resolution process has not been explored. In this study, we stress the importance of focusing on different types of problem-focused coping strategies. We explore how employee upward dissent strategies, conceptualized as different forms of problem-focused coping, contribute to violation resolution and post-violation psychological contracts. Two sources of data were used. In-depth interviews with supervisors of a Dutch car lease company provided 23 case descriptions of employee-supervisor interactions after a psychological contract violation. Moreover, a database with descriptions of Dutch court sentences provided eight case descriptions of employee-organization interactions following a perceived violation. Based on these data sources, we explored the pattern of upward dissent strategies employees used over time following a perceived violation. We distinguished between functional (thriving and reactivation, dysfunctional (impairment and dissolution and deserted psychological contract end states and explored whether different dissent patterns over time differentially contributed to the dissent outcome (i.e., psychological contract end state. The results of our study showed that the use of problem-focused coping is not as straightforward as suggested by the post-violation model. While the post-violation model suggests that problem

Actively Coping with Violation: Exploring Upward Dissent Patterns in Functional, Dysfunctional, and Deserted Psychological Contract End States.

Science.gov (United States)

Schalk, René; De Ruiter, Melanie; Van Loon, Joost; Kuijpers, Evy; Van Regenmortel, Tine

2018-01-01

Recently, scholars have emphasized the importance of examining how employees cope with psychological contract violation and how the coping process contributes to psychological contract violation resolution and post-violation psychological contracts. Recent work points to the important role of problem-focused coping. Yet, to date, problem-focused coping strategies have not been conceptualized on a continuum from constructive to destructive strategies. Consequently, potential differences in the use of specific types of problem-focused coping strategies and the role these different strategies play in the violation resolution process has not been explored. In this study, we stress the importance of focusing on different types of problem-focused coping strategies. We explore how employee upward dissent strategies, conceptualized as different forms of problem-focused coping, contribute to violation resolution and post-violation psychological contracts. Two sources of data were used. In-depth interviews with supervisors of a Dutch car lease company provided 23 case descriptions of employee-supervisor interactions after a psychological contract violation. Moreover, a database with descriptions of Dutch court sentences provided eight case descriptions of employee-organization interactions following a perceived violation. Based on these data sources, we explored the pattern of upward dissent strategies employees used over time following a perceived violation. We distinguished between functional (thriving and reactivation), dysfunctional (impairment and dissolution) and deserted psychological contract end states and explored whether different dissent patterns over time differentially contributed to the dissent outcome (i.e., psychological contract end state). The results of our study showed that the use of problem-focused coping is not as straightforward as suggested by the post-violation model. While the post-violation model suggests that problem-focused coping will most

Actively Coping with Violation: Exploring Upward Dissent Patterns in Functional, Dysfunctional, and Deserted Psychological Contract End States

Science.gov (United States)

Schalk, René; De Ruiter, Melanie; Van Loon, Joost; Kuijpers, Evy; Van Regenmortel, Tine

2018-01-01

Recently, scholars have emphasized the importance of examining how employees cope with psychological contract violation and how the coping process contributes to psychological contract violation resolution and post-violation psychological contracts. Recent work points to the important role of problem-focused coping. Yet, to date, problem-focused coping strategies have not been conceptualized on a continuum from constructive to destructive strategies. Consequently, potential differences in the use of specific types of problem-focused coping strategies and the role these different strategies play in the violation resolution process has not been explored. In this study, we stress the importance of focusing on different types of problem-focused coping strategies. We explore how employee upward dissent strategies, conceptualized as different forms of problem-focused coping, contribute to violation resolution and post-violation psychological contracts. Two sources of data were used. In-depth interviews with supervisors of a Dutch car lease company provided 23 case descriptions of employee-supervisor interactions after a psychological contract violation. Moreover, a database with descriptions of Dutch court sentences provided eight case descriptions of employee-organization interactions following a perceived violation. Based on these data sources, we explored the pattern of upward dissent strategies employees used over time following a perceived violation. We distinguished between functional (thriving and reactivation), dysfunctional (impairment and dissolution) and deserted psychological contract end states and explored whether different dissent patterns over time differentially contributed to the dissent outcome (i.e., psychological contract end state). The results of our study showed that the use of problem-focused coping is not as straightforward as suggested by the post-violation model. While the post-violation model suggests that problem-focused coping will most

Trend Analysis of Pahang River Using Non-Parametric Analysis: Mann Kendalls Trend Test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Muhammad Azizi Amran; Fazureen Azaman; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Norsyuhada Hairoma

2015-01-01

Flood is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from 1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05. Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities. (author)

[Pertussis trend in children under one year of age in the Czech Republic in 1997-2013].

Science.gov (United States)

Fabiánová, K; Šebestová, H; Beneš, Č; Zavadilová, J; Křížová, P; Kříž, B

2014-11-01

To characterize the epidemiological situation of pertussis in children under one year of age in the Czech Republic in 1997-2013. The study cohort consisted of children under one year of age with laboratory confirmed pertussis reported to the communicable disease system from 1997 to 2013. A total of 265 pertussis cases were reported in children under one year of age over the study period. Selected demographic data, need for hospitalization, and vaccination history were evaluated in the study cohort. Children under one year of age have shown a steady upward trend in reported cases of pertussis since the 1990s. The reported incidence of pertussis in this age group was the lowest in 1998 (1.1/100,000 population) and the highest in 2013 (31.3/100,000). In 1997-2013, 265 pertussis cases were reported in children under one year of age, 128 females and 137 males, to the communicable disease system in the Czech Republic. Most of these children, nearly 77%, developed pertussis within the first four months of life. Of the 265 children, 79% were not vaccinated before the onset of the disease and 21% were immunized with at least one dose of pertussis vaccine before developing the disease. As many as 75% of the children with pertussis needed hospitalization. Most of them, nearly 81%, were hospitalized with pertussis in the first four months of life and 90% of them in the first six months of life. In 1997-2013, an upward trend was observed in pertussis cases in children under one year of age. Most children developed the disease within the first four months of life while not vaccinated against pertussis. This fact unambiguously supports the "cocoon" strategy, i.e. vaccination of the closest contacts of the child, and a booster dose at 25 years of age. At the same time, a question arises whether to provide vaccination to pregnant women.

Trends in picture communication

OpenAIRE

Speidel, Joachim

1993-01-01

In the past years significant progress was made with digital transmission of audiovisual services and most interesting trends are visible for the future. Such applications encompass interactive services, like videoconferencing, ISDN-videophone, storage of moving video and audio in computers or on CD, e.g. for multimedia applications. For distribution services, there is an unbroken trend from TV to HDTV. Strong emphasis is on compressed digital video even for transmission to the home.

Internal causes of radon and its daughters upward migration and cluster phenomenon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jia Wenyi; Fang Fang; Zhou Rongsheng; Ma Yingjie; Qiu Yuande; Hou Xinsheng; Wu Yunping; Zu Xiulan; Wang Xiaoqin

1999-01-01

Radon and its daughters have a very big specific gravity. But under laboratory conditions, they have the ability to migrate upward. The phenomenon can't be interpreted by an external cause but by an internal cause. The mechanism is that radon and most of its daughters and parents are decaying bodies able to radiate α-particles. After deceleration, 4He can combine with radon and its daughters and parents to form clusters. When the buoyancy of air is greater than the gravity of the clusters, self-ascending occurs. Accordingly, the distance that Rn covered during 3.825 days (Rn half-life) should not be regarded as Rn and its daughters migrating distance, but should be calculated according to all effects. That clusters can be formed by 4He, Rn and its daughters are valuable to study because of the similarity between Rn and heavy metal particles

Job satisfaction trends during nurses' early career.

Science.gov (United States)

Murrells, Trevor; Robinson, Sarah; Griffiths, Peter

2008-06-05

Job satisfaction is an important component of nurses' lives that can impact on patient safety, productivity and performance, quality of care, retention and turnover, commitment to the organisation and the profession. Little is known about job satisfaction in early career and how it varies for different groups of nurses. This paper investigates how the components of job satisfaction vary during early career in newly qualified UK nurses. Nurses were sampled using a combined census and multi-stage approach (n = 3962). Data were collected by questionnaire at 6 months, 18 months and 3 years after qualification between 1998 and 2001. Scores were calculated for seven job satisfaction components and a single item that measured satisfaction with pay. Scores were compared longitudinally and between nursing speciality (general, children's, mental health) using a mixed model approach. No single pattern across time emerged. Trends varied by branch and job satisfaction component. Rank order of job satisfaction components, from high to low scores, was very similar for adult and child branch nurses and different for mental health. Nurses were least satisfied with pay and most satisfied with relationships at 6 and 18 months and with resources (adult and child) and relationships (mental health) at 3 years. Trends were typically upwards for adult branch nurses, varied for children's nurses and downwards for mental health nurses. The impact of time on job satisfaction in early career is highly dependent on specialism. Different contexts, settings and organisational settings lead to varying experiences. Future research should focus on understanding the relationships between job characteristics and the components of job satisfaction rather than job satisfaction as a unitary construct. Research that further investigates the benefits of a formal one year preceptorship or probationary period is needed.

Job satisfaction trends during nurses' early career

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Griffiths Peter

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Job satisfaction is an important component of nurses' lives that can impact on patient safety, productivity and performance, quality of care, retention and turnover, commitment to the organisation and the profession. Little is known about job satisfaction in early career and how it varies for different groups of nurses. This paper investigates how the components of job satisfaction vary during early career in newly qualified UK nurses. Methods Nurses were sampled using a combined census and multi-stage approach (n = 3962. Data were collected by questionnaire at 6 months, 18 months and 3 years after qualification between 1998 and 2001. Scores were calculated for seven job satisfaction components and a single item that measured satisfaction with pay. Scores were compared longitudinally and between nursing speciality (general, children's, mental health using a mixed model approach. Results No single pattern across time emerged. Trends varied by branch and job satisfaction component. Rank order of job satisfaction components, from high to low scores, was very similar for adult and child branch nurses and different for mental health. Nurses were least satisfied with pay and most satisfied with relationships at 6 and 18 months and with resources (adult and child and relationships (mental health at 3 years. Trends were typically upwards for adult branch nurses, varied for children's nurses and downwards for mental health nurses. Conclusion The impact of time on job satisfaction in early career is highly dependent on specialism. Different contexts, settings and organisational settings lead to varying experiences. Future research should focus on understanding the relationships between job characteristics and the components of job satisfaction rather than job satisfaction as a unitary construct. Research that further investigates the benefits of a formal one year preceptorship or probationary period is needed.

Road Traffic Injury Trends in the City of Valledupar, Colombia. A Time Series Study from 2008 to 2012.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Martín Rodríguez

Full Text Available To analyze the behavior temporal of road-traffic injuries (RTI in Valledupar, Colombia from January 2008 to December 2012.An observational study was conducted based on records from the Colombian National Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences Institute regional office in Valledupar. Different variables were analyzed, such as the injured person's sex, age, education level, and type of road user; the timeframe, place and circumstances of crashes and the vehicles associated with the occurrence. Furthermore, a time series analysis was conducted using an auto-regressive integrated moving average.There were 105 events per month on an average, 64.9% of RTI involved men; 82.3% of the persons injured were from 18 to 59 years of age; the average age was 35.4 years of age; the road users most involved in RTI were motorcyclists (69%, followed by pedestrians (12%. 70% had up to upper-secondary education. Sunday was the day with the most RTI occurrences; 93% of the RTI occurred in the urban area. The time series showed a seasonal pattern and a significant trend effect. The modeling process verified the existence of both memory and extrinsic variables related.An RTI occurrence pattern was identified, which showed an upward trend during the period analyzed. Motorcyclists were the main road users involved in RTI, which suggests the need to design and implement specific measures for that type of road user, from regulations for graduated licensing for young drivers to monitoring road user behavior for the promotion of road safety.

[Correlation analysis on normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) of different vegetations and climatic factors in Southwest China].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yuan-Dong; Zhang, Xiao-He; Liu, Shi-Rong

2011-02-01

Based on the 1982-2006 NDVI remote sensing data and meteorological data of Southwest China, and by using GIS technology, this paper interpolated and extracted the mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and drought index in the region, and analyzed the correlations of the annual variation of NDVI in different vegetation types (marsh, shrub, bush, grassland, meadow, coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, alpine vegetation, and cultural vegetation) with corresponding climatic factors. In 1982-2006, the NDVI, mean annual temperature, and annual precipitation had an overall increasing trend, and the drought index decreased. Particularly, the upward trend of mean annual temperature was statistically significant. Among the nine vegetation types, the NDVI of bush and mash decreased, and the downward trend was significant for bush. The NDVI of the other seven vegetation types increased, and the upward trend was significant for coniferous forest, meadow, and alpine vegetation, and extremely significant for shrub. The mean annual temperature in the areas with all the nine vegetation types increased significantly, while the annual precipitation had no significant change. The drought index in the areas with marsh, bush, and cultural vegetation presented an increasing trend, that in the areas with meadow and alpine vegetation decreased significantly, and this index in the areas with other four vegetation types had an unobvious decreasing trend. The NDVI of shrub and coniferous forest had a significantly positive correlation with mean annual temperature, and that of shrub and meadow had significantly negative correlation with drought index. Under the conditions of the other two climatic factors unchanged, the NDVI of coniferous forest, broad-leaved forest, and alpine vegetation showed the strongest correlation with mean annual temperature, that of grass showed the strongest correlation with annual precipitation, and the NDVI of mash, shrub, grass, meadow, and cultural

Internet Censorship in Turkey: University Students' Opinions

Science.gov (United States)

Ozkan, Hasan; Arikan, Arda

2009-01-01

The aim of this paper is to study university students' opinions toward online censorship with references to their socio-political and economic variables. Considering the upwards trend and the increasing number of online restrictions in Turkey, the opinions of university students (n=138) are thought to give significant findings. The questionnaire…

Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study.

Science.gov (United States)

Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai

2017-01-01

We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

New Visualizations Highlight New Information on the Contrasting Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends Since the Late 1970s

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Claire L.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2016-01-01

Month-by-month ranking of 37 years (1979-2015) of satellite-derived sea-ice extents in the Arctic and Antarctic reveals interesting new details in the overall trends toward decreasing sea-ice coverage in the Arctic and increasing sea-ice coverage in the Antarctic. The Arctic decreases are so definitive that there has not been a monthly record high in Arctic sea-ice extents in any month since 1986, a time period during which there have been 75 monthly record lows. The Antarctic, with the opposite but weaker trend toward increased ice extents, experienced monthly record lows in 5 months of 1986, then 6 later monthly record lows scattered through the dataset, with the last two occurring in 2006, versus 45 record highs since 1986. However, in the last three years of the 1979-2015 dataset, the downward trends in Arctic sea-ice extents eased up, with no new record lows in any month of 2013 or 2014 and only one record low in 2015,while the upward trends in Antarctic ice extents notably strengthened, with new record high ice extents in 4 months (August-November) of 2013, in 6 months (April- September) of 2014, and in 3 months (January, April, and May) of 2015. Globally, there have been only 3 monthly record highs since 1986 (only one since 1988), whereas there have been 43 record lows, although the last record lows (in the 1979-2015 dataset) occurred in 2012.

Trends in HIV testing, prevalence among first-time testers, and incidence in most-at-risk populations in Spain: the EPI-VIH Study, 2000 to 2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Diez, M; Bleda, M J; Varela, J R; Ordonana, J; Azpiri, M A; Vall, M; Santos, C; Viloria, L; de Armas, C; Urena, J M; Trullen, J; Pueyo, I; Martinez, B; Puerta, T; Vera, M; Sanz, I; Junquera, M L; Landa, M C; Martinez, E; Camara, M M; Belda, J; Bru, F J; Diaz, A

2014-11-27

During 2000 to 2009, data on people undergoing HIV testing and on those newly diagnosed with HIV were collected in a network of 20 Spanish clinics specialising in sexually transmitted infections and/or HIV testing and counselling. The number of tests performed, overall and disaggregated by different variables, was obtained. HIV prevalence among first-time testers and HIV incidence among repeat testers were calculated. To evaluate trends, joinpoint regression models were fitted. In total, 236,939 HIV tests were performed for 165,745 individuals. Overall HIV prevalence among persons seeking HIV testing was 2.5% (95% CI: 2.4 to 2.6). Prevalence was highest in male sex workers who had sex with other men (19.0% (95% CI: 16.7 to 21.4)) and was lowest in female sex workers (0.8% (95% CI: 0.7 to 0.9)). Significant trends in prevalence were observed in men who have sex with men (MSM) (increasing) and heterosexual individuals (decreasing). The incidence analysis included 30,679 persons, 64,104 person-years (py) of follow-up and 642 seroconversions. The overall incidence rate (IR) was 1.0/100 py (95% CI: 0.9/100 to 1.1/100). Incidence was significantly higher in men and transgender females than in women (1.8/100 py (95% CI: 1.6 to 1.9), 1.2/100 py (95% CI: 0.5 to 2.8) and 0.1/100 py (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.2) respectively) and increased with age until 35–39 years. IRs in MSM and people who inject drugs were significantly greater than in heterosexual individuals (2.5/100 py (95% CI: 2.3 to 2.7), 1.6/100 py (95% CI: 1.1 to 2.2) and 0.1/100 py (95% CI: 0.09 to 0.2) respectively), and an upward trend was observed in MSM. Our results call for HIV prevention to be reinforced in MSM and transgender women in Spain.

Trends in Baby-Friendly® Care in the United States: Historical Influences on Contemporary Care.

Science.gov (United States)

Salera-Vieira, Jean; Zembo, Cynthia T

2016-01-01

The protection that breast-feeding affords both mother and infant against acute and chronic illness is well documented. The grassroots, public health, and governmental supports for breast-feeding have influenced changes in maternal and newborn care. History indicates that the additional influence has come in the form of governmental workshops and initiatives, professional organizations, as well as The Joint Commission. This includes the influence that the Baby-Friendly® Hospital Initiative and the Ten Steps to Successful Breastfeeding have had on infant care throughout the years. The requirements that hospitals must follow to implement all, or some, of the Ten Steps lead to change in care that not only increases breast-feeding rates but also leads to health improvements. This article reviews how an upward trend in the adoption of Baby-Friendly practices to support breast-feeding impacts infant care.

Occurrence of and trends in selected sediment-associated contaminants in Caddo Lake, East Texas, 1940-2002

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Jennifer T.

2003-01-01

threshold effect concentrations and probable effect concentrations (among 26 analyzed) were above the respective threshold effect concentrations, but all, except one lead concentration at the Goose Prairie Creek site (deposited about 1961), were below respective probable effect concentrations. Among trace element concentrations at the four sites, lead and mercury were consistently relatively high at the Goose Prairie Creek site. Again the Ammunitions Plant, because of its proximity and history of industrial activities, is the suspected primary source. Statistically significant trends in trace element concentrations were mixed, but more were downward than upward. Computations to indicate the dominant source (atmospheric fallout or drainage area) of mercury to the Caddo Lake sediment core sites (except Carter Lake) indicate that about one-third of the mercury at the Goose Prairie Creek site might result from drainage area sources. No drainage area sources were indicated for the Harrison Bayou and mid-lake sites. Arsenic, cadmium, and zinc concentrations were highest at the Carter Lake site. No relation between the relatively higher trace element concentrations and any potential source of contamination in the Carter Lake drainage area (for example, oil and gas operations, a road, a boat ramp) is indicated.

Mixed convection heat transfer to carbon dioxide flowing upward and downward in a vertical tube and an annular channel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bae, Yoon Y.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Experimental results of heat transfer at a supercritical pressure for a tube with an inner diameter of 4.57 mm and a corresponding annular channel (8 mm x 10 mm, 1 mm gap) were compared each other. → Effect of various parameters such as pressure, flow direction, diameter, channel shape, was investigated. → Existing correlation for supercritical heat transfer were evaluated against the experimental data. → Some unusual characteristics of supercritical heat transfer, such as overshoot and non-monotonic behavior against buoyancy parameter, were discussed. → New correlations were proposed based on the experimental data. - Abstract: This paper addresses three main subjects in supercritical heat transfer: (1) difference in thermal characteristics between upward and downward flows; (2) effect of simulating flow channel shape; (3) evaluation of the existing supercritical heat transfer correlations. To achieve the objectives, a series of experiments was carried out with CO 2 flowing upward and downward in a circular tube with an inner diameter of 4.57 mm and an annular channel created between a tube with an inner diameter of 10 mm and a heater rod with an outer diameter of 8 mm. The working fluid, CO 2 , has been regarded as an appropriate modeling fluid for water, primarily because of their similarity in property variations against reduced temperatures. The mass flux ranged from 400 to 1200 kg/m 2 s. The heat flux was varied between 30 and 140 kW/m 2 so that the pseudo-critical point was located in the middle of the heated section at a given mass flux. The measurements were made at a pressure of 8.12 MPa, which corresponds to 110% of the critical pressure of CO 2 . The difference between the upward and downward flows was observed clearly. The heat transfer deterioration was observed in the downward flow through an annular subchannel over the region beyond the critical point. Several well-known correlations were evaluated against the experimental

Significance analysis of lexical bias in microarray data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Falkow Stanley

2003-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genes that are determined to be significantly differentially regulated in microarray analyses often appear to have functional commonalities, such as being components of the same biochemical pathway. This results in certain words being under- or overrepresented in the list of genes. Distinguishing between biologically meaningful trends and artifacts of annotation and analysis procedures is of the utmost importance, as only true biological trends are of interest for further experimentation. A number of sophisticated methods for identification of significant lexical trends are currently available, but these methods are generally too cumbersome for practical use by most microarray users. Results We have developed a tool, LACK, for calculating the statistical significance of apparent lexical bias in microarray datasets. The frequency of a user-specified list of search terms in a list of genes which are differentially regulated is assessed for statistical significance by comparison to randomly generated datasets. The simplicity of the input files and user interface targets the average microarray user who wishes to have a statistical measure of apparent lexical trends in analyzed datasets without the need for bioinformatics skills. The software is available as Perl source or a Windows executable. Conclusion We have used LACK in our laboratory to generate biological hypotheses based on our microarray data. We demonstrate the program's utility using an example in which we confirm significant upregulation of SPI-2 pathogenicity island of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium by the cation chelator dipyridyl.

Heat transfer characteristics of supercritical pressure waster in vertical upward annular channels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Han; Bi Qincheng; Yang Zhendong; Wu Gang

2013-01-01

Within the range of pressure from 23 to 28 MPa, mass flux from 350 to 1000 kg/(m 2 · s), and outside wall heat flux from 200 to 1000 kW/m 2 , experimental investigation was conducted on the heat transfer characteristics of supercritical pressure water in vertical upward annular channels. The effects of heat flux, pressure, mass flux and spiral spacer on heat transfer were analyzed, and two types of heat transfer deterioration occurred in the experiments were compared. The experimental results show that the heat transfer of water can be enhanced by increasing the mass flux or decreasing the wall heat flux. The effect of pressure on heat transfer is not uniform and depends on heat transfer form. It was found that the spiral spacer not only enhances the heat transfer of water, but also delays the heat transfer deterioration which occurs in high heat flux and low mass flux conditions. (authors)

Self Induced Buoyant Blow Off in Upward Flame Spread on Thin Solid Fuels

Science.gov (United States)

Johnston, Michael C.; T'ien, James S.; Muff, Derek E.; Olson, Sandra L.; Ferkul, Paul V.

2013-01-01

Upward flame spread experiments were conducted on a thin fabric cloth consisting of 75% cotton and 25% fiberglass. The sample is sandwiched symmetrically with stainless steel plates with the exposed width varying between 2 to 8.8 cm from test to test and >1.5m tall. The bottom edge was ignited resulting in a symmetric two sided flame. For the narrower samples (. 5cm), two sided flame growth would proceed until reaching some limiting value (15-30 cm depending on sample width). Fluctuation or instability of the flame base on one side would initially become visible and then the flame base would retreat downstream and cause extinguishment on one side. Detailed examination of the still images shows that the fuel continues to vaporize from the extinguished side due to the thermally thin nature of the fuel. But, due to the remaining inert fiberglass mesh, which acts as a flashback arrestor, the extinguished side was not able to be reignited by the remaining flame. The remaining flame would then shrink in length due to the reduced heat transfer to the solid to a shorter length. The one-sided flame will spread stably with a constant speed and a constant flame length to the end of the sample. A constant length flame implies that the pyrolysis front and the burnt out fronts move at the same speed. For the wider samples (. 7cm), no one-sided extinction is observed. Two-sided flames spread all the way to the top of the sample. For these wider widths, the flames are still growing and have not reached their limiting length if it exists. Care was taken to minimize the amount of non-symmetries in the experimental configuration. Repeated tests show that blow-off can occur on either side of the sample. The flame growth is observed to be very symmetric during the growth phase and grew to significant length (>10cm) before extinction of the flame on one side. Our proposed explanation of this unusual phenomenon (i.e. stronger two ]sided flame cannot exist but weaker one-sided flame can

Fluvial fluxes from the Magdalena River into Cartagena Bay, Caribbean Colombia: Trends, future scenarios, and connections with upstream human impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Restrepo, Juan D.; Escobar, Rogger; Tosic, Marko

2018-02-01

Fluxes of continental runoff and sediments as well as downstream deposition of eroded soils have severely altered the structure and function of fluvial and deltaic-estuarine ecosystems. The Magdalena River, the main contributor of continental fluxes into the Caribbean Sea, delivers important amounts of water and sediments into Cartagena Bay, a major estuarine system in northern Colombia. Until now, trends in fluvial fluxes into the bay, as well as the relationship between these tendencies in fluvial inputs and associated upstream changes in the Magdalena catchment, have not been studied. Here we explore the interannual trends of water discharge and sediment load flowing from the Magdalena River-Canal del Dique system into Cartagena Bay during the last three decades, forecast future scenarios of fluxes into the bay, and discuss possible connections between observed trends in fluvial inputs and trends in human intervention in the Magdalena River basin. Significant upward trends in annual runoff and sediment load during the mid-1980s, 1990s, and post-2000 are observed in the Magdalena and in the Canal del Dique flowing into Cartagena Bay. During the last decade, Magdalena streamflow and sediment load experienced increases of 24% and 33%, respectively, compared to the pre-2000 year period. Meanwhile, the Canal del Dique witnessed increases in water discharge and sediment load of 28% and 48%, respectively. During 26 y of monitoring, the Canal del Dique has discharged 177 Mt of sediment to the coastal zone, of which 52 Mt was discharged into Cartagena Bay. Currently, the Canal drains 6.5% and transports 5.1% of the Magdalena water discharge and sediment load. By 2020, water discharge and sediment flux from the Canal del Dique flowing to the coastal zone will witness increments of 164% and 260%, respectively. Consequently, sediment fluxes into Cartagena Bay will witness increments as high as 8.2 Mt y- 1 or 317%. Further analyses of upstream sediment load series for 21

CrossRef A study of upward going particles with the Extreme Energy Events telescopes

CERN Document Server

Abbrescia, M; Baldini, L; Ferroli, R Baldini; Batignani, G; Bencivenni, G; Bossini, E; Chiavassa, A; Cicalo, C; Cifarelli, L; Coccia, E; Corvaglia, A; De Gruttola, D; De Pasquale, S; Di Giovanni, A; D׳Incecco, M; Dreucci, M; Fabbri, F L; Fattibene, E; Ferraro, A; Forster, R; Frolov, V; Galeotti, P; Garbini, M; Gemme, G; Gnesi, I; Grazzi, S; Gustavino, C; Hatzifotiadu, D; La Rocca, P; Maggiora, A; Maron, G; Mazziotta, M N; Miozzi, S; Nania, R; Noferini, F; Nozzoli, F; Panareo, M; Panetta, M P; Paoletti, R; Perasso, L; Pilo, F; Piragino, G; Riggi, F; Righini, G C; Rodriguez, A R; Sartorelli, G; Scapparone, E; Schioppa, M; Scribano, A; Selvi, M; Serci, S; Siddi, E; Squarcia, S; Stori, L; Taiuti, M; Terreni, G; Vistoli, M C; Votano, L; Williams, M C S; Zani, S; Zichichi, A; Zuyeuski, R

2016-01-01

In this paper the first study of the upward going events detected by the telescopes of the Extreme Energy Event (EEE) project is reported. The EEE project consists of a detector array of Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers located at selected sites on the Italian territory. During autumn 2014 the first coordinated data taking period took place and around one billion candidate tracks were collected. Among them, of particular interest is the sample of particles which cross the telescopes from below. The results obtained demonstrate that the EEE telescopes can distinguish the electrons produced as decay products of cosmic muons stopped in the ground, or in the last chamber of the telescopes themselves, confirming the excellent performance of the system for the investigation of intriguing cosmic phenomena.

On the One-Dimensional Modeling of Vertical Upward Bubbly Flow

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Peña-Monferrer

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The one-dimensional two-fluid model approach has been traditionally used in thermal-hydraulics codes for the analysis of transients and accidents in water–cooled nuclear power plants. This paper investigates the performance of RELAP5/MOD3 predicting vertical upward bubbly flow at low velocity conditions. For bubbly flow and vertical pipes, this code applies the drift-velocity approach, showing important discrepancies with the experiments compared. Then, we use a classical formulation of the drag coefficient approach to evaluate the performance of both approaches. This is based on the critical Weber criteria and includes several assumptions for the calculation of the interfacial area and bubble size that are evaluated in this work. A more accurate drag coefficient approach is proposed and implemented in RELAP5/MOD3. Instead of using the Weber criteria, the bubble size distribution is directly considered. This allows the calculation of the interfacial area directly from the definition of Sauter mean diameter of a distribution. The results show that only the proposed approach was able to predict all the flow characteristics, in particular the bubble size and interfacial area concentration. Finally, the computational results are analyzed and validated with cross-section area average measurements of void fraction, dispersed phase velocity, bubble size, and interfacial area concentration.

Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER

Science.gov (United States)

Xian, T.; Tan, R.

2017-12-01

Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

Inequalities of caries experience in Nevada youth expressed by DMFT index vs. Significant Caries Index (SiC over time

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Mobley Connie

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background With the increasingly polarized distribution of dental caries among children and adolescents, the usual DMFT measure has become a less meaningful population descriptor. To re-focus on identifying the high caries prevalence group the Significant Caries Index (SiC was created. The aims of this study were to analyze the prevalence and severity of dental caries in Nevada youth over a period of eight years and to compare its expression by means of DMFT and SiC; analyze the caries trends in the population and their underlying factors, and determine whether Nevada youth were at risk for significantly high levels of dental caries. Methods Retrospective data was analyzed from a series of sequential, standardized oral health surveys across eight years (2001/2002-2008/2009 that included over 62,000 examinations of adolescents 13-19 years of age, attending public/private Nevada schools. Mean Decayed-Missing-Filled Teeth index (DMFT and Significant Caries Index (SiC were subsequently computed for each academic year. Descriptive statistics were reported for analysis of comparative DMFT and SiC scores in relation to age, gender, racial background, and residence in a fluoridated/non-fluoridated community. Logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the differential impact of the variables on the probability of being in the high caries prevalence group. Results Comparison of students' mean DMFT to National (NHANES data confirmed that dental caries remains a common chronic disease among Nevada youth, presenting higher prevalence rates and greater mean scores than the national averages. Downward trends were found across all demographics compared between survey years 1 and 6 with the exception of survey year 3. An upward trend began in survey year six. Over time, the younger group displayed an increasing proportion of cariesfree individuals while a decreasing proportion was found among older examinees. As expected, the mean SiC score was

[Dust storms trend in the Capital Circle of China over the past 50 years and its correlation with temperature, precipitation and wind].

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Chen, Yu-fu; Tang, Hai-ping

2005-01-01

The trends of number of dust storm days of the selected 11 meteorological stations from their established year to 2000 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation and wind are revealed. The number of dust storm days of the Capital Circle of China is distinctly variable in space and time. The numbers of dust storm days of the western area are far more than those of the eastern area. The interannual variability of number of dust storm days is remarkable. The number of dust storm days of the following 7 stations, Erlianhaote, Abaga, Xilinhaote, Fengning, Zhangjiakou, Huailai and Beijing, declined along the past decades, but those of the other four stations had no significant upward or downward trends. There is a marked seasonality of the number of dust storm days, and the maximum was in April. The correlation between number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s, which is critical wind velocity to entrain sand into the air, was strongest among the three climatic factor. There were significant positive correlations between the number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s in 6 stations. The second strongest climatic factor correlated with the number of dust storm days is temperature. There are significant negative correlations between the number of dust storm days and mean annual temperature, mean winter temperature, mean spring temperature in 3 or 4 stations. The correlation between the number of dust storm days and precipitation is weakest. Only one station, Zhurihe, showes significant negative correlation between the number of dust storm days and spring rainfall. There are 4 stations whose number of dust storm days don't significantly correlate with the climate. In the end, the spatial-temporal variability of dust storms and its relation with climate in the Capital Circle of China were discussed thoroughly.

A study on the upward and downward facing pool boiling heat transfer characteristics of graphene-modified surface

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Ji Hoon; Ahn, Ho Seon; Kim, Ji Min

2016-01-01

Recently, graphene, carbon in two dimensions, were highlighted as a good heat transfer materials, according to its high thermal conductivity. Lateral conduction and water absorption into the structure helped graphene films to inhibit the formation of hot spots, which means increasing of critical heat flux (CHF) and boiling heat transfer coefficient (BHTC) performances. In this study, we report a promising increase of CHF and BHTC results with 2D graphene films. Furthermore, we tried to observe bubble behavior via high-speed visualization to investigate a relationship between bubble behavior and pool boiling performances in downward facing boiling. The effect of graphene film coating on the pool boiling performances of upward and downward facing heater surface were examined. 2D- and 3D- graphene film showed good enhancement results on the CHF (by 111% and 60%) and BHTC (by 40% and 20-25%) performances. Bubble behavior change was significant factor on the CHF and BHTC performances in downward facing boiling. The amount of evaporation heat flux was calculated from the velocity, bubble diameter, frequency, orientation angle and superheat that the post-products of the high-speed visualization

Recent change of vegetation growth trend in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng Shushi; Fang Jingyun; Piao Shilong; Chen, Anping; Xu Liang; Myneni, Ranga B; Cao Chunxiang; Pinzon, Jorge E; Tucker, Compton J

2011-01-01

Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982–99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April–October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007 yr −1 from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982–99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013 yr −1 ) is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003 yr −1 ) and September and October (SO) (0.0008 yr −1 ). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982–2010 compared with that during 1982–99 (0.0012 yr −1 ) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.—Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039 yr −1 ) to slightly decreasing ( − 0.0002 yr −1 ) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020 yr −1 ) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

Recent Change of Vegetation Growth Trend in China

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Shushi; Chen, Anping; Xu, Liang; Cao, Chunxiang; Fang, Jingyun; Myneni, Ranga B.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Tucker, COmpton J.; Piao, Shilong

2011-01-01

Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982-99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April-October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007/yr from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982-99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013/yr is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003/yr) and September and October (SO) (0.0008/yr). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982-2010 compared with that during 1982-99 (0.0012/yr) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039/yr) to slightly decreasing (0:0002/yr) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020/yr) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

Void fraction development in gas-liquid flow after a U-bend in a vertically upwards serpentine-configuration large-diameter pipe

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Almabrok, Almabrok A.; Aliyu, Aliyu M.; Baba, Yahaya D.; Lao, Liyun; Yeung, Hoi

2018-01-01

We investigate the effect of a return U-bend on flow behaviour in the vertical upward section of a large-diameter pipe. A wire mesh sensor was employed to study the void fraction distributions at axial distances of 5, 28 and 47 pipe diameters after the upstream bottom bend. The study found that, the bottom bend has considerable impacts on up-flow behaviour. In all conditions, centrifugal action causes appreciable misdistribution in the adjacent straight section. Plots from WMS measurements show that flow asymmetry significantly reduces along the axis at L/D = 47. Regime maps generated from three axial locations showed that, in addition to bubbly, intermittent and annular flows, oscillatory flow occurred particularly when gas and liquid flow rates were relatively low. At this position, mean void fractions were in agreement with those from other large-pipe studies, and comparisons were made with existing void fraction correlations. Among the correlations surveyed, drift flux-type correlations were found to give the best predictive results.

Recent trends in the prevalence of underweight, overweight, and obesity in Korean adults: The Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 1998 to 2014

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Hyun-Young Shin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Recent obesity studies have reported that the rising trend in obesity has stabilized or leveled off. Our study aimed to update estimates of the recent prevalence trend in obesity based on the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1998–2014. Methods: A total of 66,663 subjects were included and defined as being either underweight, overweight, or obese, in accordance with a BMI of 18.5 kg/m2 or lower, 23 kg/m2 or higher, and 25 kg/m2 or higher, respectively. Results: The prevalence of underweight in KNHANES I through VI surveys was 5.4%, 6.1%, 5.8%, 6.5%, 7.6%, and 7.5%, respectively, in men (p for trend = 0.04, β = 0.003 and 4.7%, 3.3%, 3.4%, 3.3%, 2.7%, and 2.6%, respectively, in women (p for trend = 0.03, β = −0.002. Also for KNHANES I through VI, the respective prevalence of overweight/obesity was 50.3%, 57.2%, 62.5%, 62.3%, 61.4%, and 61.3% in men (p for trend<0.01, β = 0.009 and 48.3%, 50.3%, 50.0%, 47.8%, 47.0%, and 45.3% in women (p for trend<0.01, β = −0.01, respectively. Conclusions: The obesity occurrence in men was trending upward with respect to overweight/obesity and for grade 1 and 2 obesity, but not for abdominal obesity. However, the obesity trends in women were leveling off from overweight/obesity, grade 1 obesity, and abdominal obesity measures. Further studies are required with data on muscle mass and adiposity for effective obesity control policies.

Robust upward dispersion of the neutron spin resonance in the heavy fermion superconductor Ce1−xYbxCoIn5

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Song, Yu; Van Dyke, John; Lum, I. K.; White, B. D.; Jang, Sooyoung; Yazici, Duygu; Shu, L.; Schneidewind, A.; Čermák, Petr; Qiu, Y.; Maple, M. B.; Morr, Dirk K.; Dai, Pengcheng

2016-01-01

The neutron spin resonance is a collective magnetic excitation that appears in the unconventional copper oxide, iron pnictide and heavy fermion superconductors. Although the resonance is commonly associated with a spin-exciton due to the d(s±)-wave symmetry of the superconducting order parameter, it has also been proposed to be a magnon-like excitation appearing in the superconducting state. Here we use inelastic neutron scattering to demonstrate that the resonance in the heavy fermion superconductor Ce1−xYbxCoIn5 with x=0, 0.05 and 0.3 has a ring-like upward dispersion that is robust against Yb-doping. By comparing our experimental data with a random phase approximation calculation using the electronic structure and the momentum dependence of the -wave superconducting gap determined from scanning tunnelling microscopy (STM) for CeCoIn5, we conclude that the robust upward-dispersing resonance mode in Ce1−xYbxCoIn5 is inconsistent with the downward dispersion predicted within the spin-exciton scenario. PMID:27677397

Recent activities and trend in the uranium market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwasny, R.; Aul, F.; Lohrey, K.

2007-01-01

Concerns about the impact of hydrocarbon use on climate and global warming are significantly growing. Furthermore, we are all well aware that security of supply is increasingly an issue. In this context, it is now principally recognised that nuclear energy has to be back on the agenda. All in all, the prospects for the nuclear power industry and thus for the uranium activities is very positive for the coming years. The changes that have taken place in the international uranium market during the past several years are remarkable. Since 2002, the uranium prices have increased more than tenfold. The spot market price of uranium began an increase from about USD 9/lb U 3 O 8 in mid 2001 following a fire at the Olympic Dam mill (Australia) in October 2001 and was propelled in subsequent years by a series of interrupting events, such as the mine shaft flooding at the McArthur River mine (Canada) in April 2003, the threat of the early shutdown of the Roessing mine (Namibia) and the Ranger mine (Australia) in 2003, the decision of Techsnabexport (Tenex, Russia) in October 2003 to terminate sales of UF6 to the US trading company Globe Nuclear Services and Supply GNSS Ltd. (GNSS), and finally the complete flooding at the developing Cigar Lake mine (Canada) in October 2006. With the emergence of hedge funds and investors, that began in late 2004, increased uranium demand and upward pressure on market prices were further stimulated. What about the recent events and trends in the uranium industry? Are the uranium producers and the utilities well prepared to meet all the challenges associated with developments in the uranium business? And what about the risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect the developments in the uranium industry and uranium markets? (orig.)

Heat transfer to sub- and supercritical water flowing upward in a vertical tube at low mass fluxes: numerical analysis and experimental validation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Odu, Samuel Obarinu; Koster, P.; van der Ham, Aloysius G.J.; van der Hoef, Martin Anton; Kersten, Sascha R.A.

2016-01-01

Heat transfer to supercritical water (SCW) flowing upward in a vertical heated tube at low mass fluxes (G ≤ 20 kg/m2 s) has been numerically investigated in COMSOL Multiphysics and validated with experimental data. The turbulence models, essential to describing local turbulence, in COMSOL have been

The multiplier effect : how the accumulation of cultural and social capital explains steep upward social mobility of children of low-educated immigrants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Crul, Maurice; Schneider, Jens; Keskiner, Elif; Lelie, Frans

2017-01-01

We introduce what we have coined the multiplier effect. We explain the steep upward mobility of children of low-educated immigrants by studying how they overcome obstacles on their regular pathway, via alternative routes or through loopholes in the education and labour market system. The idea of the

CFD analysis using two-equation turbulence models for the vertical upward flow of water in a heated tube at supercritical pressure(I)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Y. I.; Kim, S. H.; Bae, Y. Y.; Cho, B. H.

2003-12-01

Numerical simulation was performed referring to the Yamagata's experiment on the heat transfer in a vertical tube where water flows upward at supercritical pressure. Numerical simulation was performed for the conditions of tube diameter of 7.5 mm, heated tube length of 2 m, operation pressure at 245 bar, bulk temperatures from 300 to 420 .deg. C, heat fluxes from 465 to 930 kW/m 2 and mass velocity 1,260 kg/m 2 s, by Fluent code and compared with the Yamagata's experiments. At the heat flux 465 kW/m 2 , the maximum difference between calculated results and Yamagata's experiment were less than 20% and the difference between the results using different turbulence models was not so significant. But at the heat flux, 930 kW/m 2 , the difference between the calculations and Yamagata's experiment increased to about 25%, and the difference between the results using different turbulence models increased significantly. The case with RNG κ-ε and enhanced wall treatment predicted the Yamagata's experiment best

Continuing social disparities despite upward trends in sexual and reproductive health service use among young women in the United States.

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Hall, Kelli Stidham; Moreau, Caroline; Trussell, James

2012-12-01

Building upon previous work describing declining rates and socioeconomic disparities in sexual and reproductive health (SRH) service use among young women in the United States, we reexamined patterns and determinants of SRH service use in 2006-2010. We used the latest data from the National Survey of Family Growth to evaluate SRH service use including contraceptive, sexually transmitted infection (STI) and other gynecological exam services among 3780 women ages 15-24 years. We compared proportions of service use across survey years and employed multiple logistic regression to estimate the influence of time and women's sociodemographic characteristics on the likelihood of SRH service use. The proportion of women using SRH services increased from 50% (2006-2007) to 54% (2007-2008) and 57% (2008-2010) [all year odds ratios (ORs) 1.4, p valuessexually experienced women, the proportions using SRH and contraceptive services were unchanged, while STI service use increased from 22% (2006-2007) to 33% (2008-2009) (OR 1.7, confidence interval 1.1-2.4, p=.009). Differentials in service use existed across sociodemographic groups, largely with lower proportions of service use among women of social disadvantage. Our results suggest a reversal of negative trends but continuing social disparities in young women's use of SRH services in the United States. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Coverage of tobacco control in Jordanian newspapers: implications for strengthening the role of news media.

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Bader, Rasha K; Shtaiwi, Aisha S; Shihab, Rawan A; Obeidat, Nour A; Hawari, Feras I

2017-07-16

News media play a critical role in tobacco control. To strengthen this role in Jordan, four newspapers were searched and 1 145 articles between 2011 and 2015 were coded for mention of MPOWER topics and for tone of coverage (neutral, pro-, or anti-tobacco control). Monthly counts, mention of tobacco control topics and the tones were examined. The monthly count of tobacco control-related news items showed an upward trend with an average monthly growth of 16%. Peaks in coverage were observed in synchrony with national tobacco control developments. 'Warn' was the topic most frequently mentioned (46%). 'Protect' was the only topic that showed a statistically significant upward trend over time. A pro-tobacco control tone was more prevalent than an antitobacco control or neutral tone. Thus, efforts are needed to enhance the newsworthiness of certain topics, boost influence on decision-makers and pre-empt industry interference.

Trends in the prevalence of self-reported diabetes in Brazilian capital cities and the Federal District, 2006-2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Iser, Betine Pinto Moehlecke; Vigo, Álvaro; Duncan, Bruce Bartholow; Schmidt, Maria Inês

2016-01-01

Diabetes is increasing globally, particularly in low and middle income countries, posing a great challenge to health systems. Brazil is currently ranked 4th in the world in terms of the absolute number of persons with diabetes. Our aim was to analyze the trend in self-reported diabetes prevalence between 2006 and 2014 in Brazilian adults. We used data from the national telephone survey-VIGITEL. Over 40,000 individuals from probabilistic sample of subjects ≥18 years old residing in 26 state capitals and the Federal District were interviewed per year in each location. Estimates were weighted to represent the surveyed population. We analyzed trends with a linear regression model. We adjusted prevalence with a probability predictive margins model, using as reference categories: men, 18-24 years, ≥12 years of schooling and lean/normal weight. From 2006 to 2014, the overall prevalence increased from 5.5 to 8.0 %, a net rise of 0.26 %/year (P = 0.001). After adjustment for sex, age, schooling and BMI categories, the trend decreased only slightly to 0.25 %/year. Relatively greater adjusted increases were present in men (0.28 %/year), in those ≥65 years (0.52 %/year), with ≤8 years of schooling (0.33 %/year) and in those overweight (0.24 %/year). The most consistent upward trends were observed among men (coefficient of determination, R 2 = 0.93), those with educational attainment of 0-8 years (R 2 = 0.81), those > 65 years (R 2 = 0.79) and those who were overweight (R 2  = 0.75). There was no significant trend in diabetes prevalence for the obese. As expected, the prevalence of self-reported diabetes was always higher among those with greater age, less schooling, in women, and in those with obesity. Being obese was associated with having more than twice the prevalence of diabetes of those normal/underweight. Prevalence of self-reported diabetes in Brazilian adults has risen between 2006 and 2014, especially among those 65 years or older, even after

Surface-Water Quality Conditions and Long-Term Trends at Selected Sites within the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network in Missouri, Water Years 1993-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Barr, Miya N.; Davis, Jerri V.

2010-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, collects data pertaining to the surface-water resources of Missouri. These data are collected as part of the Missouri Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network and constitute a valuable source of reliable, impartial, and timely information for developing an improved understanding of water resources in the State. Six sites from the Ambient Water-Quality Monitoring Network, with data available from the 1993 through 2008 water years, were chosen to compare water-quality conditions and long-term trends of dissolved oxygen, selected physical properties, total suspended solids, dissolved nitrate plus nitrite as nitrogen, total phosphorous, fecal indicator bacteria, and selected trace elements. The six sites used in the study were classified in groups corresponding to the physiography, main land use, and drainage basin size, and represent most stream types in Missouri. Long-term trends in this study were analyzed using flow-adjusted and non-flow adjusted models. Highly censored datasets (greater than 5 percent but less than 50 percent censored values) were not flow-adjusted. Trends that were detected can possibly be related to changes in agriculture or urban development within the drainage basins. Trends in nutrients were the most prevalent. Upward flow-adjusted trends in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite (as nitrogen) concentrations were identified at the Elk River site, and in total phosphorus concentrations at the South Fabius and Grand River sites. A downward flow-adjusted trend was identified in total phosphorus concentrations from Wilson Creek, the only urban site in the study. The downward trend in phosphorus possibly was related to a phosphorus reduction system that began operation in 2001 at a wastewater treatment plant upstream from the sampling site. Total suspended solids concentrations indicated an upward non-flow adjusted trend at the two northern sites (South Fabius

Characteristic Trend Analysis of Cancer Patients Hospitalized in Shanxi Tumor Hospital for the First Time during 2001 and 2010.

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Zhang, Wen-Li; Wang, Yan; Han, Cun-Zhi

2015-01-01

To observe and analyze the characteristic trend of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time in Shanxi Tumor Hospital from 2001 to 2010, clinical data including case number, age, gender, and frequency of different tumor occurrences were collected and statistically analyzed. (i) From 2001 to 2010, the number of cancer patients hospitalized for the first time increased by 1.3-fold; (ii) The patient overall average age also increased from 51.8 to 54.4, for males from 55.5 to 58.7 and females from 48.4 to 51.1, respectively. (iii) Male patients accounted for 43-48% and females accounted for 52-57% of the total. The percentage of female patients was higher than that of male patients in every year and showed an upward trend over the years, while that of the males showed a downward trend (χ2 =7.031, p=0.008); (iv) Among the top 6 most common cancers, lung, cervical, esophageal, colorectal and breast cancers tended to increase over the years (ppatients hospitalized for the first time during the past 10 years increased year by year, and was higher for female than male; (ii) the average age of patients increased year after year and was greater for male than female; (iii) the number of patients with lung cancer, cervical cancer, esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and breast cancer increased over years.

Storminess trends in the Gulf and Mexican Caribbean

Science.gov (United States)

Mendoza, E. T.; Ojeda, E.; Appendini, C. M.

2016-12-01

Numerous studies have focused on whether the attributes of tropical cyclones have varied, or how they are expected to vary in a warming climate and yet, a defined conclusion has not been reached. However, an increase in storm intensity, with the inherent increase of wave height and storm surge, will be responsible of heavy economic loss on coastal areas. This contribution analyzes possible variations in the long term storminess pattern observed in 10 nearshore locations along the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean using modeled wave data from the last 30 years (Appendini et al., 2013). Storminess is studied in terms of wave energy content focusing on extreme event conditions. Wave storm events are obtained using the Peak Over Threshold method. The wave conditions during the events are separated into those caused by tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical storm (ETS) events because they are expected to behave differently in response to changing climate conditions. In order to characterize the waves generated by these different phenomena the data set is inspected separating individual storm events into TC and ETS using the IBtracks information. The trend and Mann-Kendall test are performed for each node to account for possible trends in the frequency, mean and maximum significant wave heights, and the mean energy content (taken as E=integral(Hs*dt) of TC and ETS. For the TC and ETS events, the results of the MK test show an absence of significant temporal trends for the majority of the nodes even at the 90% confidence interval. The significant trends in the number of ETS events show differential results (negative trend in the northernmost node and positive trends in the two Caribbean nodes and the easternmost GoM node). Regarding the TC events, the two nodes located in the Caribbean Sea present significant temporal (positive) trends in the energy content of the events. However, this trend is related to an increase in the magnitude of

North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

Science.gov (United States)

Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

2009-04-01

Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

The invisible minority: revisiting the debate on foreign-accented speakers and upward mobility in the workplace.

Science.gov (United States)

Akomolafe, Soji

2013-01-01

Of some of the major types of discrimination, the one that gets the least attention is national origin discrimination and in particular, accent discrimination, especially when it comes to upward mobility in the workplace. Yet, unlike other forms of discrimination, accent discrimination is rarely a subject of any robust public debate. This paper is a modest attempt to help establish a framework for understanding the relative neglect to which the discourse on accent discrimination has been subjected vis-a-vis the overall national debate on diversity. Hopefully, in the process, it will stimulate a more robust conversation on the plight of foreign-accented speakers.

An assessment of void fraction correlations for vertical upward steam-water flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vijayan, P.K.; Maruthi Ramesh, N.; Pilkhwal, D.S.; Saha, D.

1997-01-01

An assessment of sixteen void fraction correlations have been carried out using experimental void fraction data compiled from open literature for vertical upward steam-water flow. Nearly 80% of all the data pertained to natural circulation flow. This assessment showed that best prediction is obtained by Chexal et al. (1996) correlation followed by Hughmark (1965) and the Mochizuki and Ishii (1992) correlations. The Mochizuki-Ishii correlation is found to satisfy all the three limiting conditions whereas Chexal et al. (1996) correlation satisfies all the limiting conditions at moderately high mass fluxes (greater than 140 kg/m 2 s) while Hughmark correlation satisfies only one of the three limiting conditions. The available void fraction data in the open literature for steam-water two-phase flow lies predominantly in the low quality region. This is the reason why correlations like Hughmark which do not satisfy the upper limiting condition (i.e. at x=1, α=1) perform rather well in assessments. Additional work is required for the generation of high quality (greater than 40%) void fraction data. (author)

Upward Shift and Steepening of the Blood Pressure Response to Exercise in Hypertensive Subjects at High Altitude.

Science.gov (United States)

Caravita, Sergio; Faini, Andrea; Baratto, Claudia; Bilo, Grzegorz; Macarlupu, Josè Luis; Lang, Morin; Revera, Miriam; Lombardi, Carolina; Villafuerte, Francisco C; Agostoni, Piergiuseppe; Parati, Gianfranco

2018-06-09

Acute exposure to high-altitude hypobaric hypoxia induces a blood pressure rise in hypertensive humans, both at rest and during exercise. It is unclear whether this phenomenon reflects specific blood pressure hyperreactivity or rather an upward shift of blood pressure levels. We aimed at evaluating the extent and rate of blood pressure rise during exercise in hypertensive subjects acutely exposed to high altitude, and how these alterations can be counterbalanced by antihypertensive treatment. Fifty-five subjects with mild hypertension, double-blindly randomized to placebo or to a fixed-dose combination of an angiotensin-receptor blocker (telmisartan 80 mg) and a calcium-channel blocker (nifedipine slow release 30 mg), performed a cardiopulmonary exercise test at sea level and after the first night's stay at 3260 m altitude. High-altitude exposure caused both an 8 mm Hg upward shift ( P blood pressure/oxygen consumption relationship during exercise, independent of treatment. Telmisartan/nifedipine did not modify blood pressure reactivity to exercise (blood pressure/oxygen consumption slope), but downward shifted ( P blood pressure and oxygen consumption by 26 mm Hg, both at sea level and at altitude. Muscle oxygen delivery was not influenced by altitude exposure but was higher on telmisartan/nifedipine than on placebo ( P blood pressure response to exercise. The effect of the combination of telmisartan/nifedipine slow release outweighed these changes and was associated with better muscle oxygen delivery. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01830530. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Factors affecting long-term trends in surface-water quality in the Gwynns Falls watershed, Baltimore City and County, Maryland, 1998–2016

Science.gov (United States)

Majcher, Emily H.; Woytowitz, Ellen L.; Reisinger, Alexander J.; Groffman, Peter M.

2018-03-30

Factors affecting water-quality trends in urban streams are not well understood, despite current regulatory requirements and considerable ongoing investments in gray and green infrastructure. To address this gap, long-term water-quality trends and factors affecting these trends were examined in the Gwynns Falls, Maryland, watershed during 1998–2016 in cooperation with Blue Water Baltimore. Data on water-quality constituents and potential factors of influence were obtained from multiple sources and compiled for analysis, with a focus on data collected as part of the National Science Foundation funded Long-Term Ecological Research project, the Baltimore Ecosystem Study.Variability in climate (specifically, precipitation) and land cover can overwhelm actions taken to improve water quality and can present challenges for meeting regulatory goals. Analysis of land cover during 2001–11 in the Gwynns Falls watershed indicated minimal change during the study time frame; therefore, land-cover change is likely not a factor affecting trends in water quality. However, a modest increase in annual precipitation and a significant increase in winter precipitation were apparent in the region. A higher proportion of runoff producing storms was observed in the winter and a lower proportion in the summer, indicating that climate change may affect water quality in the watershed. The increase in precipitation was not reflected in annual or seasonal trends of streamflow in the watershed. Nonetheless, these precipitation changes may exacerbate the inflow and infiltration of water to gray infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of green infrastructure. For streamflow and most water-quality constituents examined, no discernable trends were noted over the timeframe examined. Despite the increases in precipitation, no trends were observed for annual or seasonal discharge at the various sites within the study area. In some locations, nitrate, phosphate, and total nitrogen show downward

Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Bernhard

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

A Heat Transfer Correlation in a Vertical Upward Flow of CO2 at Supercritical Pressures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Hyung Rae; Bae, Yoon Yeong; Song, Jin Ho; Kim, Hwan Yeol

2006-01-01

Heat transfer data has been collected in the heat transfer test loop, named SPHINX (Supercritical Pressure Heat Transfer Investigation for NeXt generation), in KAERI. The facility primarily aims at the generation of heat transfer data in the flow conditions and geometries relevant to SCWR (SuperCritical Water-cooled Reactor). The produced data will aid the thermohydraulic design of a reactor core. The loop uses carbon dioxide, and later the results will be scaled to the water flows. The heat transfer data has been collected for a vertical upward flow in a circular tube with varying mass fluxes, heat fluxes, and operating pressures. The results are compared with the existing correlations and a new correlation is proposed by fine-tuning the one of the existing correlations

Recent trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garau, M.; Alonso, R.; Musetti, C.; Barrios, E.

2010-01-01

Objective: To analyze trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay in the period 1989-2008. Methodology: The National Cancer Registry (NCR) collects information from cancer mortality from the death certificates: 147 631 deaths were identified in the period from cancer, which was recorded topography, sex and age. They were calculated for each year mortality rates adjusted for age (TMAE) using as standard the world population. Trends were assessed using the method and calculated the joinpoint Estimated Annual Percent Change (ESPP). Results: The TMAE presents downward trend in both sexes (ESPP = significant -0.60 in men and -0.49 In women). In the period studied, mortality presented decreasing trend when it comes to cancer breast cancer in women (ESPP -0.79, significant), and increased for prostate cancer (ESPP = 0.70) and kidney (ESPP = 1.82 and 1.71 in men and women respectively). As regards the digestive system decreased mortality observed for esophageal cancer (ESPP in = -1.93 men and women = -1.78) and stomach (ESPP = -2.22 men and women -2.24 ). Mortality for cancer of colorectum is stable in men (ESPP = 0.35 No significant (NS)) and shows a decline slight but steady in women (ESPP -0.5). As for cancers that show strong association with smoking, decreased mortality observed lung and laryngeal cancer in men (ESPP = -1.11 and -2.05 respectively), confirming the trend found between 1990 and 2001; in women there is increased mortality from lung cancer (ESPP = 2.76) that is not accompanied by increased mortality from laryngeal cancer (-0.1 ESPP = NS). Mortality from cancers oral cavity and pharynx is stable, but in women a significant increase (ESPP = 1.84) is observed when the oral cavity is analyzed in isolation (lip, tongue, gums, palate). As cervical cancer, mortality trends in 20 years is to increase (ESPP = 1.14), however, if consider only the past decade, mortality appears stabilized (ESPP = 0.57 NS). Conclusions: The overall trend of cancer mortality (all sites

Ecohydrological Index, Native Fish, and Climate Trends and Relationships in the Kansas River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinnathamby, Sumathy; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle R; Muche, Muluken E; Hutchinson, Stacy L; Anandhi, Aavudai

2018-01-01

This study quantified climatological and hydrological trends and relationships to presence and distribution of two native aquatic species in the Kansas River Basin over the past half-century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) at 34 streamgages over a 50-year period (1962-2012). Results showed a significant negative trend in annual streamflow for 10 of 12 western streamgages (up to -7.65 mm/50 yr) and smaller negative trends for most other streamgages. Significant negative trends in western Basin streamflow were more widespread in summer (12 stations) than winter or spring (6 stations). The negative-trend magnitude and significance decreased from west to east for maximum-flow IHAs. Minimum- flow IHAs, however, significantly decreased at High Plains streamgages but significantly increased at Central Great Plains streamgages. Number of zero-flow days showed positive trends in the High Plains. Most streamgages showed negative trends in low- and high-flow pulse frequency and high-flow pulse duration, and positive trends in low-flow pulse duration. These results were consistent with increasing occurrence of drought. Shift in occurrence from present (1860-1950) to absent (2000-2012) was significantly related (pBasin sites and had different responses to hydrological index trends at eastern Basin sites. These results demonstrate ecohydrological index changes impact distributions of native fish and suggest target factors for assessment or restoration activities.

Internal Architecture of Meteorite Impact Crater at Bukit Bunuh, Lenggong – Perak, Malaysia Inferred from Upward Continuation of Magnetic Field Intensity Data

Science.gov (United States)

Muhammad, S. B.; Saad, R.; Saidin, M.; Yusoh, R.; Sabrian, T. A.; Samuel, Y. M.

2018-04-01

2–D upward continuation of magnetic field data acquired at Bukit Bunuh, Lenggong – Perak, Malaysia, with the objective to ascertain the impact crater and possible rebounds, has be carried out and interpreted in this study. Ground magnetic survey was conducted first as regional study in the entire area followed by a detailed study at the suspected crater region. Data from both studies were compiled, corrected and separated (regional – residual). The residual magnetic data ranged between -272 and +134.2 nT. 2–D upward continuation at various planes of observation was carried out on the gridded residual magnetic field data after coordinates were converted (from degrees to meters) to understate anomalies due to shallow features. The planes were at 250 m, 500 m and 750 m above the ground level. The continuation at 500 m revealed a low magnetic region, believed to be an impact crater, which is now filled with sediments, surrounded by a high magnetic shallow bedrock. Other high magnetic key features interpreted as rebounds (R) also remained after filtering out the ambiguous anomalies.

Statistical trend analysis methodology for rare failures in changing technical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ott, K.O.; Hoffmann, H.J.

1983-07-01

A methodology for a statistical trend analysis (STA) in failure rates is presented. It applies primarily to relatively rare events in changing technologies or components. The formulation is more general and the assumptions are less restrictive than in a previously published version. Relations of the statistical analysis and probabilistic assessment (PRA) are discussed in terms of categorization of decisions for action following particular failure events. The significance of tentatively identified trends is explored. In addition to statistical tests for trend significance, a combination of STA and PRA results quantifying the trend complement is proposed. The STA approach is compared with other concepts for trend characterization. (orig.)

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN THE SOLAR WIND PROTON MEASUREMENTS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Elliott, Heather A.; McComas, David J. [Southwest Research Institute, San Antonio, TX (United States); DeForest, Craig E. [Southwest Research Institute, Boulder, CO (United States)

2016-11-20

We examine the long-term time evolution (1965–2015) of the relationships between solar wind proton temperature ( T {sub p}) and speed ( V {sub p}) and between the proton density ( n {sub p}) and speed using OMNI solar wind observations taken near Earth. We find a long-term decrease in the proton temperature–speed ( T {sub p}– V {sub p}) slope that lasted from 1972 to 2010, but has been trending upward since 2010. Since the solar wind proton density–speed ( n {sub p}– V {sub p}) relationship is not linear like the T {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship, we perform power-law fits for n {sub p}– V {sub p}. The exponent (steepness in the n {sub p}– V {sub p} relationship) is correlated with the solar cycle. This exponent has a stronger correlation with current sheet tilt angle than with sunspot number because the sunspot number maxima vary considerably from cycle to cycle and the tilt angle maxima do not. To understand this finding, we examined the average n {sub p} for different speed ranges, and found that for the slow wind n {sub p} is highly correlated with the sunspot number, with a lag of approximately four years. The fast wind n {sub p} variation was less, but in phase with the cycle. This phase difference may contribute to the n {sub p}– V {sub p} exponent correlation with the solar cycle. These long-term trends are important since empirical formulas based on fits to T {sub p} and V {sub p} data are commonly used to identify interplanetary coronal mass ejections, but these formulas do not include any time dependence. Changes in the solar wind density over a solar cycle will create corresponding changes in the near-Earth space environment and the overall extent of the heliosphere.

Research productivity of Pakistan in medical sciences during the period 1996-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Meo, S A; Almasri, A A; Usmani, A M

2013-11-01

This study aimed to investigate the degree of research outcome in medical science subjects in Pakistan during the period 1996-2012. In this study, the research papers published in various global science journals during the period 1996-2012 were accessed. We recorded the total number of research documents having an affiliation with a Pakistan. The main source for information was Institute of Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science, Thomson Reuters and SCI-mago/Scopus. In global science, Pakistan contributed 58133 research papers in all science and social sciences both in ISI and non ISI indexed journals. However, in medical sciences the total number of research papers from Pakistan are 25604, citable documents 23874, citations 128061, mean citations per documents 6.45 and mean Hirsch index is 35.33. In Pakistan, the upward trend of articles published in global medical science was from the period 1996-2008. However, from 2008 the trend is markedly declined. Pakistan significantly improved its international ranking positions in research during the period 2000-2008. However, the upward trend of research papers published in global medical science could not be retained and from the year 2008 the trend started declining. This trend of research papers further declined in year 2012 compared to year 2011. It is suggested that, Pakistan must take strategic steps to enhance the research culture and increase the research and development expenditure in the country.

Trends in evaporation of a large subtropical lake

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Cheng; Wang, Yongwei; Wang, Wei; Liu, Shoudong; Piao, Meihua; Xiao, Wei; Lee, Xuhui

2017-07-01

How rising temperature and changing solar radiation affect evaporation of natural water bodies remains poor understood. In this study, evaporation from Lake Taihu, a large (area 2400 km2) freshwater lake in the Yangtze River Delta, China, was simulated by the CLM4-LISSS offline lake model and estimated with pan evaporation data. Both methods were calibrated against lake evaporation measured directly with eddy covariance in 2012. Results show a significant increasing trend of annual lake evaporation from 1979 to 2013, at a rate of 29.6 mm decade-1 according to the lake model and 25.4 mm decade-1 according to the pan method. The mean annual evaporation during this period shows good agreement between these two methods (977 mm according to the model and 1007 mm according to the pan method). A stepwise linear regression reveals that downward shortwave radiation was the most significant contributor to the modeled evaporation trend, while air temperature was the most significant contributor to the pan evaporation trend. Wind speed had little impact on the modeled lake evaporation but had a negative contribution to the pan evaporation trend offsetting some of the temperature effect. Reference evaporation was not a good proxy for the lake evaporation because it was on average 20.6 % too high and its increasing trend was too large (56.5 mm decade-1).

Persistent collective trend in stock markets

Science.gov (United States)

Balogh, Emeric; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zs.; Néda, Zoltán

2010-12-01

Empirical evidence is given for a significant difference in the collective trend of the share prices during the stock index rising and falling periods. Data on the Dow Jones Industrial Average and its stock components are studied between 1991 and 2008. Pearson-type correlations are computed between the stocks and averaged over stock pairs and time. The results indicate a general trend: whenever the stock index is falling the stock prices are changing in a more correlated manner than in case the stock index is ascending. A thorough statistical analysis of the data shows that the observed difference is significant, suggesting a constant fear factor among stockholders.

Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

missions such as DRACO with the intent that mission operations costs be significantly reduced. The goal of the Constellation Spacecraft Trend Analysis Toolkit (CSTAT) project is to serve as the pathfinder for a fully automated trending system to support spacecraft constellations. The development approach to be taken is evolutionary. In the first year of the project, the intent is to significantly advance the state of the art in current trending systems through improved functionality and increased automation. In the second year, the intent is to add an expert system shell, likely through the adaptation of an existing commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) or government-off-the-shelf (GOTS) tool to implement some level of the trending intelligence that humans currently provide in manual operations. In the third year, the intent is to infuse the resulting technology into a near-term constellation or formation-flying mission to test it and gain experience in automated trending. The lessons learned from the real missions operations experience will then be used to improve the system, and to ultimately incorporate it into a fully autonomous, closed-loop mission operations system that is truly capable of supporting large constellations. In this paper, the process of automating trend analysis for spacecraft constellations will be addressed. First, the results of a survey on automation in spacecraft mission operations in general, and in trending systems in particular will be presented to provide an overview of the current state of the art. Next, a rule-based model for implementing intelligent spacecraft subsystem trending will be then presented, followed by a survey of existing COTS/GOTS tools that could be adapted for implementing such a model. The baseline design and architecture of the CSTAT system will be presented. Finally, some results obtained from initial software tests and demonstrations will be presented.

Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Weiss-Penzias, Peter S.; Gay, David A.; Brigham, Mark E.; Parsons, Matthew T.; Gustin, Mae S.; ter Shure, Arnout

2016-01-01

This study examined the spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in wet deposition and air concentrations in the United States (U.S.) and Canada between 1997 and 2013. Data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and Environment Canada monitoring networks, and other sources. Of the 19 sites with data records from 1997–2013, 53% had significant negative trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, while no sites had significant positive trends, which is in general agreement with earlier studies that considered NADP data up until about 2010. However, for the time period 2007–2013 (71 sites), 17% and 13% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively, and for the time period 2008–2013 (81 sites) 30% and 6% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively. Non-significant positive tendencies were also widespread. Regional trend analyses revealed significant positive trends in Hg concentration in the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and Upper Midwest regions for the recent time periods in addition to significant positive trends in Hg deposition for the continent as a whole. Sulfate concentration trends in wet deposition were negative in all regions, suggesting a lower importance of local Hg sources. The trend in gaseous elemental Hg from short-term datasets merged as one continuous record was broadly consistent with trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, with the early time period (1998–2007) producing a significantly negative trend (− 1.5 ± 0.2% year− 1) and the recent time period (2008–2013) displaying a flat slope (− 0.3 ± 0.1% year− 1, not significant). The observed shift to more positive or less negative trends in Hg wet deposition primarily seen in the Central-Western regions is consistent with the effects of rising Hg emissions from regions outside the U.S. and Canada and the influence of long-range transport in the free troposphere.

Offshore Blowouts, Causes and Trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holand, P

1996-02-01

The main objective of this doctoral thesis was to establish an improved design basis for offshore installations with respect to blowout risk analyses. The following sub objectives are defined: (1) Establish an offshore blowout database suitable for risk analyses, (2) Compare the blowout risk related to loss of lives with the total offshore risk and risk in other industries, (3) Analyse blowouts with respect to parameters that are important to describe and quantify blowout risk that has been experienced to be able to answer several questions such as under what operations have blowouts occurred, direct causes, frequency of occurrence etc., (4) Analyse blowouts with respect to trends. The research strategy applied includes elements from both survey strategy and case study strategy. The data are systematized in the form of a new database developed from the MARINTEK database. Most blowouts in the analysed period occurred during drilling operations. Shallow gas blowouts were more frequent than deep blowouts and workover blowouts occurred more often than deep development drilling blowouts. Relatively few blowouts occurred during completion, wireline and normal production activities. No significant trend in blowout occurrences as a function of time could be observed, except for completion blowouts that showed a significantly decreasing trend. But there were trends regarding some important parameters for risk analyses, e.g. the ignition probability has decreased and diverter systems have improved. Only 3.5% of the fatalities occurred because of blowouts. 106 refs., 51 figs., 55 tabs.

Drivers for spatial, temporal and long-term trends in atmospheric ammonia and ammonium in the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. S. Tang

2018-01-01

-dominated areas there is a slight upward trend (non-significant in NH3 concentrations (MK: +12 %; LR: +3.6 %, annually averaged NH3, despite the estimated decline in NH3 emissions from this sector since 1998 (−11 %. At background and sheep-dominated sites, NH3 concentrations increased over the monitoring period. These increases (non-significant at background (MK: +17 %; LR: +13 %, annually averaged data and sheep-dominated sites (MK: +15 %; LR: +19 %, annually averaged data would be consistent with the concomitant reduction in SO2 emissions over the same period, leading to a longer atmospheric lifetime of NH3, thereby increasing NH3 concentrations in remote areas. The observations for NH3 concentrations not decreasing as fast as estimated emission trends are consistent with a larger downward trend in annual particulate NH4+ concentrations (1999–2014: MK: −47 %; LR: −49 %, p < 0.01, n =  23, associated with a lower formation of particulate NH4+ in the atmosphere from gas phase NH3.

Maternal nutritional status (as measured by height, weight and BMI) in Bangladesh: trends and socio-economic association over the period 1996 to 2007.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohsena, Masuda; Goto, Rie; Mascie-Taylor, Cg Nicholas

2016-06-01

To analyse trends in maternal nutritional status in Bangladesh over a 12-year period and to examine the associations between nutritional status and socio-economic variables. Maternal nutritional status indicators were height, weight and BMI. Socio-economic variables used were region, residency, education and occupation of the mothers and their husbands, house type, and possession score in the household. Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (1996, 2000, 2004 and 2007) were the source of data. A total of 16 278 mothers were included. All of the socio-economic variables showed significant associations with maternal nutritional status indicators. Regional variation was found to be present; all three indicators were found to be lowest in the Sylhet division. Upward trends in maternal height, weight and BMI were evident from no possessions to four possessions in households, and for no education to higher education of women and their husbands. Bangladeshi mothers measured in 2007 were found to be on average 0·34 cm taller and 3·36 kg heavier than mothers measured in 1996. Between 1996 and 2007 maternal underweight fell from nearly 50 % to just over 30 % while overweight and obesity increased from about 3 % to over 9 % (WHO cut-offs) or from 7 % to nearly 18 % (Asian cut-offs). The study reveals that over the 12-year period in Bangladesh there has been a substantial reduction in maternal underweight accompanied by a considerable increase in obesity. It is also evident that malnutrition in Bangladesh is a multidimensional problem that warrants a proper policy mix and programme intervention.

Aerial Rotation Effects on Vertical Jump Performance Among Highly Skilled Collegiate Soccer Players.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, Leland A; Harry, John R; Dufek, Janet S; Mercer, John A

2017-04-01

Barker, LA, Harry, JR, Dufek, JS, and Mercer, JA. Aerial rotation effects on vertical jump performance among highly skilled collegiate soccer players. J Strength Cond Res 31(4): 932-938, 2017-In soccer matches, jumps involving rotations occur when attempting to head the ball for a shot or pass from set pieces, such as corner kicks, goal kicks, and lob passes. However, the 3-dimensional ground reaction forces used to perform rotational jumping tasks are currently unknown. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to compare bilateral, 3-dimensional, and ground reaction forces of a standard countermovement jump (CMJ0) with those of a countermovement jump with a 180° rotation (CMJ180) among Division-1 soccer players. Twenty-four participants from the soccer team of the University of Nevada performed 3 trials of CMJ0 and CMJ180. Dependent variables included jump height, downward and upward phase times, vertical (Fz) peak force and net impulse relative to mass, and medial-lateral and anterior-posterior force couple values. Statistical significance was set a priori at α = 0.05. CMJ180 reduced jump height, increased the anterior-posterior force couple in the downward and upward phases, and increased upward peak Fz (p ≤ 0.05). All other variables were not significantly different between groups (p > 0.05). However, we did recognize that downward peak Fz trended lower in the CMJ0 condition (p = 0.059), and upward net impulse trended higher in the CMJ0 condition (p = 0.071). It was concluded that jump height was reduced during the rotational jumping task, and rotation occurred primarily via AP ground reaction forces through the entire countermovement jump. Coaches and athletes may consider additional rotational jumping in their training programs to mediate performance decrements during rotational jump tasks.

Trends in surface wind speed and significant wave height as revealed by ERA-Interim wind wave hindcast in the Central Bay of Bengal

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Shanas, P.R.; SanilKumar, V.

height. The area average analysis is carried out to investigate the sensitivity of the identified trend results for the point location and found similar trends for extreme wind speed and SWH. The high (>5 m) annual maximum SWH in the study area...

Sea ice draft in the Weddell Sea, measured by upward looking sonars

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Behrendt

2013-06-01

Full Text Available The presented database contains time-referenced sea ice draft values from upward looking sonar (ULS measurements in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica. The sea ice draft data can be used to infer the thickness of the ice. They were collected during the period 1990–2008. In total, the database includes measurements from 13 locations in the Weddell Sea and was generated from more than 3.7 million measurements of sea ice draft. The files contain uncorrected raw drafts, corrected drafts and the basic parameters measured by the ULS. The measurement principle, the data processing procedure and the quality control are described in detail. To account for the unknown speed of sound in the water column above the ULS, two correction methods were applied to the draft data. The first method is based on defining a reference level from the identification of open water leads. The second method uses a model of sound speed in the oceanic mixed layer and is applied to ice draft in austral winter. Both methods are discussed and their accuracy is estimated. Finally, selected results of the processing are presented. The data can be downloaded from doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.785565.

[Significance of journal articles within the scientific literature of various disciplines: trends over the past two decades].

Science.gov (United States)

Schubert, András; Soós, Sándor

2015-06-14

Trends of preferred publication channels in selected categories of Sciences, Social Sciences and Arts & Humanities were studied by determining the percentage share of references in reviews to serials (journals) in all references. It was found that in the period 1995-2014, the fraction of articles published in journals was increasing in all selected areas of science and scholarship. The most dynamical increase was found in Social Sciences.

Corrective action program at the Krsko NPP. Trending and analysis of minor events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bach, B.; Kavsek, D.

2007-01-01

Industry and On-site Operating Experience has shown that the significant events, minor events and near misses all share something in common: latent weaknesses that result in failed barriers and the same or similar (root) causes for that failure. All these types of events differ only in their resulting consequences: minor events and near misses have no immediate or significant impact to plant safety or reliability. However, the significant events are usually preceded by a number of those kinds of events and could be prevented from occurring if the root cause(s) of these precursor events could be identified and eliminated. It would be therefore poor management to leave minor events and near misses unreported and unanalysed. Reporting and analysing of minor events allows detection of latent weaknesses that may indicate the need for improvement. The benefit of low level event analysis is that deficiencies can be found in barriers that normally go unchallenged and may not be known that they are ineffective in stopping a significant event. In addition, large numbers of minor events and near misses may increase the probability of occurrence of a significant event, which in itself is a sufficient reason for addressing these types of events. However, as it is not often practical neither feasible to perform a detailed root cause determination for every minor events, trending and trend analysis are used to identify and correct the causes prior to their resulting in a significant event. Trending is monitoring a change in frequency of similar minor events occurrence. Adverse trend is an increase in the frequency of minor events which are sorted by commonality such as common equipment failure, human factors, common or similar causal factors, activity etc. or worsening performance of processes that has been trending. The primary goal of any trending programme should be to identify an adverse trend early enough that the operating organization can initiate an investigation to help

Insect pollinated crops, insect pollinators and US agriculture: trend analysis of aggregate data for the period 1992-2009.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas W Calderone

Full Text Available In the US, the cultivated area (hectares and production (tonnes of crops that require or benefit from insect pollination (directly dependent crops: apples, almonds, blueberries, cucurbits, etc. increased from 1992, the first year in this study, through 1999 and continued near those levels through 2009; aggregate yield (tonnes/hectare remained unchanged. The value of directly dependent crops attributed to all insect pollination (2009 USD decreased from $14.29 billion in 1996, the first year for value data in this study, to $10.69 billion in 2001, but increased thereafter, reaching $15.12 billion by 2009. The values attributed to honey bees and non-Apis pollinators followed similar patterns, reaching $11.68 billion and $3.44 billion, respectively, by 2009. The cultivated area of crops grown from seeds resulting from insect pollination (indirectly dependent crops: legume hays, carrots, onions, etc. was stable from 1992 through 1999, but has since declined. Production of those crops also declined, albeit not as rapidly as the decline in cultivated area; this asymmetry was due to increases in aggregate yield. The value of indirectly dependent crops attributed to insect pollination declined from $15.45 billion in 1996 to $12.00 billion in 2004, but has since trended upward. The value of indirectly dependent crops attributed to honey bees and non-Apis pollinators, exclusive of alfalfa leafcutter bees, has declined since 1996 to $5.39 billion and $1.15 billion, respectively in 2009. The value of alfalfa hay attributed to alfalfa leafcutter bees ranged between $4.99 and $7.04 billion. Trend analysis demonstrates that US producers have a continued and significant need for insect pollinators and that a diminution in managed or wild pollinator populations could seriously threaten the continued production of insect pollinated crops and crops grown from seeds resulting from insect pollination.

Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-04-01

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

Science.gov (United States)

Sang, Yan-Fang; Sun, Fubao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xie, Ping; Sun, Jian

2018-01-01

The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS) approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961-2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale). The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann-Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

Trend analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.

1991-01-01

The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

2017-04-01

Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those

Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research

Science.gov (United States)

Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.

2005-02-01

The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

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Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Limiting oxygen concentration for extinction of upward spreading flames over inclined thin polyethylene-insulated NiCr electrical wires with opposed-flow under normal- and micro-gravity

KAUST Repository

Hu, Longhua; Lu, Yong; Yoshioka, Kosuke; Zhang, Yangshu; Fernandez-Pello, Carlos; Chung, Suk-Ho; Fujita, Osamu

2016-01-01

. The experiments reported here used polyethylene (PE)-insulated (thickness of 0.15 mm) Nichrome (NiCr)-core (diameter of 0.5 mm) electrical wires. Limiting oxygen concentrations (LOC) at extinction were measured for upward spreading flame at various forced opposed-flow

A Heat Transfer Correlation in a Vertical Upward Flow of CO{sub 2} at Supercritical Pressures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Hyung Rae; Bae, Yoon Yeong; Song, Jin Ho; Kim, Hwan Yeol [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

2006-07-01

Heat transfer data has been collected in the heat transfer test loop, named SPHINX (Supercritical Pressure Heat Transfer Investigation for NeXt generation), in KAERI. The facility primarily aims at the generation of heat transfer data in the flow conditions and geometries relevant to SCWR (SuperCritical Water-cooled Reactor). The produced data will aid the thermohydraulic design of a reactor core. The loop uses carbon dioxide, and later the results will be scaled to the water flows. The heat transfer data has been collected for a vertical upward flow in a circular tube with varying mass fluxes, heat fluxes, and operating pressures. The results are compared with the existing correlations and a new correlation is proposed by fine-tuning the one of the existing correlations.

Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.

2007-12-01

Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation

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Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine

2015-04-01

Spatio-temporal dynamics of stable oxygen (18O) and hydrogen (2H) isotopes in precipitation can be used as proxies for changing hydro-meteorological and regional and global climate patterns. While spatial patterns and distributions gained much attention in recent years the temporal trends in stable isotope time series are rarely investigated and our understanding of them is still limited. These might be a result of a lack of proper trend detection tools and effort for exploring trend processes. Here we make use of an extensive data set of stable isotope in German precipitation. In this study we investigate temporal trends of δ18O in precipitation at 17 observation station in Germany between 1978 and 2009. For that we test different approaches for proper trend detection, accounting for first and higher order serial correlation. We test if significant trends in the isotope time series based on different models can be observed. We apply the Mann-Kendall trend tests on the isotope series, using general multiplicative seasonal autoregressive integrate moving average (ARIMA) models which account for first and higher order serial correlations. With the approach we can also account for the effects of temperature, precipitation amount on the trend. Further we investigate the role of geographic parameters on isotope trends. To benchmark our proposed approach, the ARIMA results are compared to a trend-free prewhiting (TFPW) procedure, the state of the art method for removing the first order autocorrelation in environmental trend studies. Moreover, we explore whether higher order serial correlations in isotope series affects our trend results. The results show that three out of the 17 stations have significant changes when higher order autocorrelation are adjusted, and four stations show a significant trend when temperature and precipitation effects are considered. Significant trends in the isotope time series are generally observed at low elevation stations (≤315 m a

Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir.

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Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš

2018-05-15

Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

Studies of 21st-Century Precipitation Trends Over West Africa

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Druyan, Leonard M.

2010-01-01

West Africa includes a semi-arid zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid Gulf of Guinea coast, approximately between 10 N and 20 N, which is irrigated by summer monsoon rains. This article refers to the region as the Sahel. Rain-fed agriculture is the primary sustenance for Sahel populations, and severe droughts (in the 1970s and 1980s), therefore, have devastating negative societal impacts. The future frequency of Sahel droughts and the evolution of its hydrological balance are therefore of great interest. The article reviews 10 recent research studies that attempt to discover how climate changes will affect the hydrology of the Sahel throughout the 21st century. All 10 studies rely on atmosphere ocean global climate model (AOGCM) simulations based on a range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Many of the simulations are contained in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change archives for Assessment Reports #3 and #4. Two of the studies use AOGCM data to drive regional climate models. Seven studies make projections for the first half of the 21st century and eight studies make projections for the second half. Some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts, and each describes the atmospheric processes associated with its prediction. Only one study projects more frequent droughts before 2050, and that is only for continent-wide degradation in vegetation cover. The challenge to correctly simulate Sahel rainfall decadal trends is particularly daunting because multiple physical mechanisms compete to drive the trend upwards or downwards. A variety of model deficiencies, regarding the simulation of one or more of these physical processes, taints models climate change projections. Consequently, no consensus emerges regarding the impact of anticipated greenhouse gas forcing on the hydrology of the Sahel in the second half of the 21st century.

A trending database for human performance events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, D.

1993-01-01

An effective Operations Experience program includes a standardized methodology for the investigation of unplanned events and a tool capable of retaining investigation data for the purpose of trending analysis. A database used in conjunction with a formalized investigation procedure for the purpose of trending unplanning event data is described. The database follows the structure of INPO's Human Performance Enhancement System for investigations. The database screens duplicate on-line the HPES evaluation Forms. All information pertaining to investigations is collected, retained and entered into the database using these forms. The database will be used for trending analysis to determine if any significant patterns exist, for tracking progress over time both within AECL and against industry standards, and for evaluating the success of corrective actions. Trending information will be used to help prevent similar occurrences

Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day ozone distribution and trends relevant to human health

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zoë L. Fleming

2018-02-01

Full Text Available This study quantifies the present-day global and regional distributions (2010–2014 and trends (2000–2014 for five ozone metrics relevant for short-term and long-term human exposure. These metrics, calculated by the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, are: 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone (4MDA8; number of days with MDA8 > 70 ppb (NDGT70, SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb and two seasonally averaged metrics (3MMDA1; AVGMDA8. These metrics were explored at ozone monitoring sites worldwide, which were classified as urban or non-urban based on population and nighttime lights data. Present-day distributions of 4MDA8 and NDGT70, determined predominantly by peak values, are similar with highest levels in western North America, southern Europe and East Asia. For the other three metrics, distributions are similar with North–South gradients more prominent across Europe and Japan. Between 2000 and 2014, significant negative trends in 4MDA8 and NDGT70 occur at most US and some European sites. In contrast, significant positive trends are found at many sites in South Korea and Hong Kong, with mixed trends across Japan. The other three metrics have similar, negative trends for many non-urban North American and some European and Japanese sites, and positive trends across much of East Asia. Globally, metrics at many sites exhibit non-significant trends. At 59% of all sites there is a common direction and significance in the trend across all five metrics, whilst 4MDA8 and NDGT70 have a common trend at ~80% of all sites. Sensitivity analysis shows AVGMDA8 trends differ with averaging period (warm season or annual. Trends are unchanged at many sites when a 1995–2014 period is used; although fewer sites exhibit non-significant trends. Over the longer period 1970–2014, most Japanese sites exhibit positive 4MDA8/SOMO35 trends. Insufficient data exist to characterize ozone trends for the rest of Asia and other world regions.

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

A discrete wavelet spectrum approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y.-F. Sang

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The hydroclimatic process is changing non-monotonically and identifying its trends is a great challenge. Building on the discrete wavelet transform theory, we developed a discrete wavelet spectrum (DWS approach for identifying non-monotonic trends in hydroclimate time series and evaluating their statistical significance. After validating the DWS approach using two typical synthetic time series, we examined annual temperature and potential evaporation over China from 1961–2013 and found that the DWS approach detected both the warming and the warming hiatus in temperature, and the reversed changes in potential evaporation. Further, the identified non-monotonic trends showed stable significance when the time series was longer than 30 years or so (i.e. the widely defined climate timescale. The significance of trends in potential evaporation measured at 150 stations in China, with an obvious non-monotonic trend, was underestimated and was not detected by the Mann–Kendall test. Comparatively, the DWS approach overcame the problem and detected those significant non-monotonic trends at 380 stations, which helped understand and interpret the spatiotemporal variability in the hydroclimatic process. Our results suggest that non-monotonic trends of hydroclimate time series and their significance should be carefully identified, and the DWS approach proposed has the potential for wide use in the hydrological and climate sciences.

Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends.

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Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean

2015-05-01

Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

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Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Déry, Stephen J; Hernández-Henríquez, Marco A; Owens, Philip N; Parkes, Margot W; Petticrew, Ellen L

2012-01-01

This study examines the 1911–2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world’s greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC’s interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year’s sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in

A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Déry, Stephen J.; Hernández-Henríquez, Marco A.; Owens, Philip N.; Parkes, Margot W.; Petticrew, Ellen L.

2012-06-01

This study examines the 1911-2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world’s greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC’s interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year’s sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in

Mechanical interaction buffer/backfill. Finite element calculations of the upward swelling of the buffer against both dry and saturated backfill

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boergesson, Lennart (Clay Technology AB, Lund (Sweden)); Hernelind, Jan (5T-Engineering AB, Vaesteraas (Sweden))

2009-10-15

The mechanical interaction between the buffer material in the deposition hole and the backfill material in the deposition tunnel is an important process in the safety assessment since the primary function of the backfill is to keep the buffer in place and not allow it to expand too much and thereby loose too much of its density and barrier properties. In order to study the upwards swelling of the buffer and the subsequent density reduction a number of finite element calculations have been performed. The calculations have been done with the FE-program Abaqus with 3D-models of a deposition hole and the deposition tunnel. In order to refine the modelling only the two extreme cases of completely un-wetted (dry) and completely water saturated (wet) backfill have been modelled. For the wet case the influence of different factors has been studied while only one calculation of the dry case has been done. The calculated upwards swelling of the buffer varied between 2 and 15 cm for the different wet cases while it was about 10 cm for the dry case. In the wet reference case the E-modulus of the block and pellets fillings was 50 MPa and 3.24 MPa respectively, the friction angle between the buffer and the rock and canister was 8.7 deg and there were no swelling pressure from the backfill. There is a strong influence of the friction angle on both the upwards swelling and the canister heave. The friction is important for preventing especially canister displacements. The unrealistic case of no friction yielded strong unacceptable influence on the buffer with an upwards swelling of 15 cm and a strong heave of 5 cm of the canister. The influence of the backfill stiffness is as expected strong. Both buffer swelling and canister heave are twice as large at the E-modulus E = 25 MPa than at the E-modulus E = 100 MPa. The influence of the stiffness of the pellets filling is not strong since there are no pellets on the floor in the model used. The influence of the swelling pressure of the

Mechanical interaction buffer/backfill. Finite element calculations of the upward swelling of the buffer against both dry and saturated backfill

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boergesson, Lennart; Hernelind, Jan

2009-10-01

The mechanical interaction between the buffer material in the deposition hole and the backfill material in the deposition tunnel is an important process in the safety assessment since the primary function of the backfill is to keep the buffer in place and not allow it to expand too much and thereby loose too much of its density and barrier properties. In order to study the upwards swelling of the buffer and the subsequent density reduction a number of finite element calculations have been performed. The calculations have been done with the FE-program Abaqus with 3D-models of a deposition hole and the deposition tunnel. In order to refine the modelling only the two extreme cases of completely un-wetted (dry) and completely water saturated (wet) backfill have been modelled. For the wet case the influence of different factors has been studied while only one calculation of the dry case has been done. The calculated upwards swelling of the buffer varied between 2 and 15 cm for the different wet cases while it was about 10 cm for the dry case. In the wet reference case the E-modulus of the block and pellets fillings was 50 MPa and 3.24 MPa respectively, the friction angle between the buffer and the rock and canister was 8.7 deg and there were no swelling pressure from the backfill. There is a strong influence of the friction angle on both the upwards swelling and the canister heave. The friction is important for preventing especially canister displacements. The unrealistic case of no friction yielded strong unacceptable influence on the buffer with an upwards swelling of 15 cm and a strong heave of 5 cm of the canister. The influence of the backfill stiffness is as expected strong. Both buffer swelling and canister heave are twice as large at the E-modulus E = 25 MPa than at the E-modulus E = 100 MPa. The influence of the stiffness of the pellets filling is not strong since there are no pellets on the floor in the model used. The influence of the swelling pressure of the

Online Marketing Trends

OpenAIRE

Horecká, Ivana

2015-01-01

This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

Evidence of the overconfidence bias in the Egyptian stock market in different market states

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayman H. Metwally

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Traditional finance theories fail to explain several anomalies observed in security markets. High levels of market turnover are among the most challenging market puzzles that have been documented in many security markets. Several studies assert the correlation between past market return and current market turnover. Behavioral finance theories assume that overconfidence bias is the reason behind this relation. Hence, this paper aims to study the impact of overconfidence – a behavioral bias stemming from the second building block of behavioral finance “cognitive psychology” and affecting traders’ beliefs and thereby their trading behavior in form of excessive trading. DeBondt and Tahler (1995. The study tests the overconfidence bias in the Egyptian Stock market during the period from 2002 till 2012 on the aggregate market level trough examining the relation between market returns and market turnover in different market states, seeking to document or deny whether overconfidence bias encourages investors to trade or not . The whole period is divided into four sub periods; two tranquil upward trending (2005-2005 and (2005-2008 and two volatile and down ward trending (financial crisis 2008-2010 and the (Egyptian Revolution Period 2010-2012 A quantitative research using secondary data and applying time series statistical techniques is designed. The research is following Statman et al. (2006 methodology. Time series analysis, which is based on four statistical techniques; mainly Vector Auto Regression, Optimal Lag Selection, Impulse Response Function and Granger Causality Tests are being used. Market Turnover ratios are used as proxies for overconfidence. The research finds a significant impact of past market return on current turnover in lag1, then turns negative in lag 2, and returns back positive in lag3, then remains positive and significant until lag5. This is in line with the overconfidence and self-attribution theory of Denial et al

Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen L. Durden

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A number of recent publications have examined trends in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones in various basins. In this communication, the author focuses on typhoons in the western North Pacific. Rather than maximum wind speed, the intensity of the storms is measured by their lifetime minimum sea level pressure (MSLP. Quantile regression is used to test for trends in storms of extreme intensity. The results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing intensity in the most intense storms as measured by MSLP over the period 1951–2010. However, when the data are broken into intervals 1951–1987 and 1987–2010, neither interval has a significant trend, but the intensity quantiles for the two periods differ. Reasons for this are discussed, including the cessation of aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. The author also finds that the average typhoon intensity is greater in El Nino years, while the intensity of the strongest typhoons shows no significant relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation.

Trends in Arctic Sea Ice Volume 2010-2013 from CryoSat-2

Science.gov (United States)

Tilling, R.; Ridout, A.; Wingham, D.; Shepherd, A.; Haas, C.; Farrell, S. L.; Schweiger, A. J.; Zhang, J.; Giles, K.; Laxon, S.

2013-12-01

Satellite records show a decline in Arctic sea ice extent over the past three decades with a record minimum in September 2012, and results from the Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modelling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) suggest that this has been accompanied by a reduction in volume. We use three years of measurements recorded by the European Space Agency CryoSat-2 (CS-2) mission, validated with in situ data, to generate estimates of seasonal variations and inter-annual trends in Arctic sea ice volume between 2010 and 2013. The CS-2 estimates of sea ice thickness agree with in situ estimates derived from upward looking sonar measurements of ice draught and airborne measurements of ice thickness and freeboard to within 0.1 metres. Prior to the record minimum in summer 2012, autumn and winter Arctic sea ice volume had fallen by ~1300 km3 relative to the previous year. Using the full 3-year period of CS-2 observations, we estimate that winter Arctic sea ice volume has decreased by ~700 km3/yr since 2010, approximately twice the average rate since 1980 as predicted by the PIOMAS.

The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrelli, Roberta; Peterson, Sierra

2007-01-01

Fossil fuel combustion is the single largest human influence on climate, accounting for 80% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents trends in world carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion worldwide, based on the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [IEA, 2006a. CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971-2004. International Energy Agency, Paris, France]. Analyzing the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper considers regions, types of fuel, sectors, and socio-economic indicators. The paper then examines the growing body of climate change mitigation policies and measures, both multinational and federal. Policies discussed include the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, and the potential measures to be implemented in 2012 and beyond. CO 2 emissions of recent years have grown at the highest rates ever recorded, an observed trend incompatible with stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and avoiding long-term climate change. Within this aggregate upward trend, a comparison of emissions sources proves dynamic: while industrialized countries have so far dominated historical emissions, rapid growth in energy demand of developing economies, led by China, may soon spur their absolute emissions beyond those of industrialized countries. To provide context for the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper examines fuel sources, from coal to biofuels, and fuel use in the production of heat and electricity, in transport, in industrial production and in households. The sectoral analysis illustrates the primacy, in terms of emissions growth and absolute emissions, of two sectors: electricity and heat generation, and transport. A discussion of several socio-economic emissions drivers complements the paper's analysis of mitigation mechanisms. As illustrated, emissions per capita and emissions per unit of economic production, as measured in gross domestic product (GDP), vary widely between

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Cotton trends in India

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

First page Back Continue Last page Graphics. Cotton trends in India. A crop of significant economic importance, valued at over Rs. 15000 Crs. Provides income to 60 million people. Crucial raw material for Rs 83000 Crores textile industry out of which Rs 45754 crores is exports. Approx. 20 Million acres of cotton provides ...

Cultural trends and eating disorders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pike, Kathleen M.; Hoek, Hans W.; Dunne, Patricia E.

Purpose of review Culture has long been recognized as significant to the cause and expression of eating disorders. We reviewed the recent literature about recent trends in the occurrence of eating disorders in different cultures. Recent findings While historically, eating disorders were

Cultural trends and eating disorders

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pike, Kathleen M.; Hoek, Hans W.; Dunne, Patricia E.

2014-01-01

Purpose of review Culture has long been recognized as significant to the cause and expression of eating disorders. We reviewed the recent literature about recent trends in the occurrence of eating disorders in different cultures. Recent findings While historically, eating disorders were

How does the architecture of a fault system controls magma upward migration through the crust?

Science.gov (United States)

Iturrieta, P. C.; Cembrano, J. M.; Stanton-Yonge, A.; Hurtado, D.

2017-12-01

The orientation and relative disposition of adjacent faults locally disrupt the regional stress field, thus enhancing magma flow through previous or newly created favorable conduits. Moreover, the brittle-plastic transition (BPT), due to its stronger rheology, governs the average state of stress of shallower portions of the fault system. Furthermore, the BPT may coincide with the location of transient magma reservoirs, from which dikes can propagate upwards into the upper crust, shaping the inner structure of the volcanic arc. In this work, we examine the stress distribution in strike-slip duplexes with variable geometry, along with the critical fluid overpressure ratio (CFOP), which is the minimum value required for individual faults to fracture in tension. We also determine the stress state disruption of the fault system when a dike is emplaced, to answer open questions such as: what is the nature of favorable pathways for magma to migrate? what is the architecture influence on the feedback between fault system kinematics and magma injection? To this end, we present a 3D coupled hydro-mechanical finite element model of the continental lithosphere, where faults are represented as continuum volumes with an elastic-plastic rheology. Magma flow upon fracturing is modeled through non-linear Stoke's flow, coupling solid and fluid equilibrium. A non-linear sensitivity analysis is performed in function of tectonic, rheology and geometry inputs, to assess which are the first-order factors that governs the nature of dike emplacement. Results show that the CFOP is heterogeneously distributed in the fault system, and within individual fault segments. Minimum values are displayed near fault intersections, where local kinematics superimpose on regional tectonic loading. Furthermore, when magma is transported through a fault segment, the CFOP is now minimized in faults with non-favorable orientations. This suggests that these faults act as transient pathways for magma to

Primary pulmonary non-small cell carcinomas: the College of American Pathologists Interlaboratory Comparison Program confirms a significant trend toward subcategorization based upon fine-needle aspiration cytomorphology alone.

Science.gov (United States)

Yildiz-Aktas, Isil Z; Sturgis, Charles D; Barkan, Guliz A; Souers, Rhona J; Fraig, Mostafa M; Laucirica, Rodolfo; Khalbuss, Walid E; Moriarty, Ann T

2014-01-01

Context.-Subtyping of non-small cell lung carcinomas (NSCLCs) is necessary for optimal patient management with specific diagnoses triggering specific molecular tests and affecting therapy. Objective.-To assess the accuracy of the participants of the College of American Pathologists Interlaboratory Comparison Program in diagnosing and subtyping NSCLC fine-needle aspiration (FNA) slides, based on morphology alone, considering preparation and participant type and trends over time. Design.-The performance of program participants was reviewed for the 5-year period spanning 2007-2011. Lung FNA challenges with reference diagnoses of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) were evaluated for diagnostic concordance by using a nonlinear mixed model analysis. Results.-There were 10 493 pathologist and 6378 cytotechnologist responses with concordance rates of 97.4% and 97.9% for malignancy, respectively. Overall concordance rates for subcategorization were 54.6% for adenocarcinoma and 74.9% for SCC. For the exact reference diagnoses, pathologists performed better for adenocarcinoma and cytotechnologists performed better for SCC. Accurate subcategorization of adenocarcinomas significantly increased over time with 31.5% of adenocarcinomas classified as NSCLC in 2007 and 25.5% of adenocarcinomas classified as NSCLC in 2011 (P alone. During the study period, a statistically significant trend was confirmed toward greater accuracy of subcategorization of adenocarcinomas, suggesting that participants are cognizant of the impact that more specific cytomorphologic interpretations have in directing molecular triage and therapy.

A rapid upward shift of a forest ecotone during 40 years of warming in the Green Mountains of Vermont.

Science.gov (United States)

Beckage, Brian; Osborne, Ben; Gavin, Daniel G; Pucko, Carolyn; Siccama, Thomas; Perkins, Timothy

2008-03-18

Detecting latitudinal range shifts of forest trees in response to recent climate change is difficult because of slow demographic rates and limited dispersal but may be facilitated by spatially compressed climatic zones along elevation gradients in montane environments. We resurveyed forest plots established in 1964 along elevation transects in the Green Mountains (Vermont) to examine whether a shift had occurred in the location of the northern hardwood-boreal forest ecotone (NBE) from 1964 to 2004. We found a 19% increase in dominance of northern hardwoods from 70% in 1964 to 89% in 2004 in the lower half of the NBE. This shift was driven by a decrease (up to 76%) in boreal and increase (up to 16%) in northern hardwood basal area within the lower portions of the ecotone. We used aerial photographs and satellite imagery to estimate a 91- to 119-m upslope shift in the upper limits of the NBE from 1962 to 2005. The upward shift is consistent with regional climatic change during the same period; interpolating climate data to the NBE showed a 1.1 degrees C increase in annual temperature, which would predict a 208-m upslope movement of the ecotone, along with a 34% increase in precipitation. The rapid upward movement of the NBE indicates little inertia to climatically induced range shifts in montane forests; the upslope shift may have been accelerated by high turnover in canopy trees that provided opportunities for ingrowth of lower elevation species. Our results indicate that high-elevation forests may be jeopardized by climate change sooner than anticipated.

Incidence and mortality trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia, 1988-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Novak, Ina; Jakšić, Ozren; Kuliš, Tomislav; Batinjan, Katarina; Znaor, Ariana

2012-01-01

Aim To investigate the time trends of leukemia and lymphoma in Croatia from 1988-2009, compare them with trends in other populations, and identify possible changes. Methods The data sources were the Croatian National Cancer Registry for incidence data, Croatian Bureau of Statistics for the numbers of deaths, and United Nations population estimates. Joinpoint regression analysis using the age-standardized rates was used to analyze incidence and mortality trends. Results Acute lymphoblastic leukemia and chronic lymphocytic leukemia incidence did not significantly change. Acute myeloid leukemia incidence significantly increased in women, with estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of 2.6% during the whole period, and in men since 1998, with EAPC of 3.2%. Chronic myeloid leukemia incidence significantly decreased in women (EAPC -3.7%) and remained stable in men. Mortality rates were stable for both lymphoid and myeloid leukemia in both sexes. Hodgkin lymphoma non-significantly increased in incidence and significantly decreased in mortality (EAPCs of -5.6% in men and -3.7% in women). Non-Hodgkin lymphoma significantly increased in incidence in women (EAPC 3.2%) and non-significantly in men and in mortality in both men (EAPC 1.6%) and women (EAPC 1.8%). Conclusion While Croatia had similar leukemia and lymphoma incidence trends as the other countries, the mortality trends were less favorable than in Western Europe. The lack of declines of leukemia incidence and non-Hodgkin lymphoma mortality could be attributed to late introduction of optimal therapies. As currently the most up-to-date diagnostics and treatments are available and covered by health insurance, we expect more favorable trends in the future. PMID:22522989

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

2009-10-15

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

2009-01-01

We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

Branding trends in Asian markets

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bakker, Diederich; Segers, Rien

This chapter examines current branding trends in significant Asian markets, namely Japan, South Korea, and India, with a special focus on one emerging branding nation, China. No generalizations towards the whole of Asia can be drawn from this research. However, research identified some aspects in

Solute transport with time-variable flow paths during upward and downward flux in a heterogeneous unsaturated porous medium

Science.gov (United States)

Cremer, Clemens; Neuweiler, Insa; Bechtold, Michel; Vanderborght, Jan

2014-05-01

To acquire knowledge of solute transport through the unsaturated zone in the shallow subsurface is decisive to assess groundwater quality, nutrient cycling or to plan remediation strategies. The shallow subsurface is characterized by structural heterogeneity and strongly influenced by atmospheric conditions. This leads to changing flow directions, strong temporal changes in saturation and heterogeneous water fluxes during infiltration and evaporation events. Recent studies (e.g. Lehmann and Or, 2009; Bechtold et al.,2011) demonstrated the importance of lateral flow and solute transport during evaporation conditions (upward flux). The heterogeneous structure in these studies was constructed using two types of sand with strong material contrasts and arranged in parallel with a vertical orientation. Lateral transport and redistribution of solute from coarse to fine media was observed deeper in the soil column and from fine to coarse close to the soil surface. However, if boundary conditions are reversed due to precipitation, the flow field is not necessarily reversed in the same manner, resulting in entirely different transport patterns for downward and upward flow. Therefore, considering net-flow rates alone is misleading when describing transport under those conditions. In this contribution we analyze transport of a solute in the shallow subsurface to assess effects resulting from the temporal change of heterogeneous soil structures due to dynamic flow conditions. Two-dimensional numerical simulations of unsaturated flow and transport are conducted using a coupled finite volume and random walk particle tracking algorithm to quantify solute transport and leaching rates. Following previous studies (Lehmann and Or, 2009; Bechtold et al., 2011), the chosen domain is composed of two materials, coarse and fine sand, arranged in parallel with a vertical orientation. Hence, one sharp interface of strong material heterogeneity is induced. During evaporation both sands are

Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

2013-01-01

We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

Diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechanisms

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Mekonnen, Ademe; Jha, Manoj K.

2015-06-01

This study seeks to investigate the variability and presence of trend in the diurnal surface air temperature range (DTR) over North Carolina (NC) for the period 1950-2009. The significance trend test and the magnitude of trends were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen approach, respectively. Statewide significant trends (p < 0.05) of decreasing DTR were found in all seasons and annually during the analysis period. Highest (lowest) temporal DTR trends of magnitude - 0.19 (- 0.031) °C/decade were found in summer (winter). Potential mechanisms for the presence/absence of trend in DTR have been highlighted. Historical data sets of the three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover (TCC), and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlation analysis. The DTRs were found to be negatively correlated with the precipitation, TCC and soil moisture across the state for all the seasons and annual basis. It appears that the moisture components related better to the DTR than to the atmospheric circulation modes.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015

Science.gov (United States)

Burger, F.; Brock, B.; Montecinos, A.

2018-03-01

We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°-35° S in central Chile between 1979-2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.

Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

Science.gov (United States)

Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

2017-08-01

In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

Selected trends in breast cancer epidemiology in Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ondrusova, M.; Psenkova, M.; Mardiak, J.

2015-01-01

Introduction: Breast cancer is one of the most prevalent forms of malignant tumors in women and so poses a serious social and economic problem. Aims: By analysing the trends of the basic indicators of breast cancer descriptive epidemiology in Slovakia, the prospective development was predicted, providing the missing information needed to assess the impact of intervention programmes. Results: The age-standardised incidence of breast cancer in Slovakia shows a strongly rising trend by an annual percentage change value of 2.2%, whereby in respect of mortality, after a previous significant decrease in values recorded in the period 2000-2009, stabilisation is registered once again with an annual percentage change of 3.4% (without statistical significance). Conclusion: Adverse trends in the development of breast cancer mortality in Slovakia underline the importance of establishing and monitoring the efficacy of intervention steps as part of organised screening. (author)

The ESRI Energy Model

OpenAIRE

Di Cosmo, Valeri; Hyland, Marie

2012-01-01

PUBLISHED In Ireland, the energy sector has undergone significant change in the last forty years. In this period, there has been a significant increase in the demand for energy. This increase has been driven by economic and demographic factors. Although the current deep recession has quelled the upward trend in the demand for energy, a future economic recovery will bring these issues back into focus. This paper documents a model of the Irish energy sector which relates energy demand to re...

Trends in Middle East climate extreme indices from 1950 to 2003

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xuebin; Aguilar, Enric; Sensoy, Serhat; Melkonyan, Hamlet; Tagiyeva, Umayra; Ahmed, Nader; Kutaladze, Nato; Rahimzadeh, Fatemeh; Taghipour, Afsaneh; Hantosh, T. H.; Albert, Pinhas; Semawi, Mohammed; Karam Ali, Mohammad; Said Al-Shabibi, Mansoor Halal; Al-Oulan, Zaid; Zatari, Taha; Al Dean Khelet, Imad; Hamoud, Saleh; Sagir, Ramazan; Demircan, Mesut; Eken, Mehmet; Adiguzel, Mustafa; Alexander, Lisa; Peterson, Thomas C.; Wallis, Trevor

2005-11-01

A climate change workshop for the Middle East brought together scientists and data for the region to produce the first area-wide analysis of climate extremes for the region. This paper reports trends in extreme precipitation and temperature indices that were computed during the workshop and additional indices data that became available after the workshop. Trends in these indices were examined for 1950-2003 at 52 stations covering 15 countries, including Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and Turkey. Results indicate that there have been statistically significant, spatially coherent trends in temperature indices that are related to temperature increases in the region. Significant, increasing trends have been found in the annual maximum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the annual minimum of daily maximum and minimum temperature, the number of summer nights, and the number of days where daily temperature has exceeded its 90th percentile. Significant negative trends have been found in the number of days when daily temperature is below its 10th percentile and daily temperature range. Trends in precipitation indices, including the number of days with precipitation, the average precipitation intensity, and maximum daily precipitation events, are weak in general and do not show spatial coherence. The workshop attendees have generously made the indices data available for the international research community.

Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa

2018-05-01

Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon

Science.gov (United States)

Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes

2010-06-01

A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

Housing & woodworking: latest trends & impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Urs Buehlmann; Matt Bumgardner; Karen. Koenig

2014-01-01

Trends in housing and other construction-related sectors continue to have a significant impact on the wood products industry, particularly cabinetry, furniture, millwork and components. This fifth annual survey assesses the market conditions for secondary woodworking manufacturers involved in construction-based sectors and includes information on their status and...

Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

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Arun Kumar Taxak

2014-08-01

Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

Electricity consumption-GDP nexus in Pakistan: A structural time series analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Javid, Muhammad; Qayyum, Abdul

2014-01-01

This study investigates the relationships among electricity consumption, real economic activity, real price of electricity and the UEDT (underlying energy demand trend) at the aggregate and sectoral levels, namely, for the residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural sectors. To achieve this goal, an electricity demand function for Pakistan is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data for the period from 1972 to 2012. In addition to identifying the size and significance of the price and income elasticities, this technique also uncovers UEDT for the whole economy as well as for sub-sectors. The results suggest that the nature of the trend is not linear and deterministic but stochastic in form. The UEDT for the electricity usage of the commercial, agricultural and residential sectors shows an upward slope. This upward slope of the UEDT suggests that either energy efficient equipment has not been introduced in these sectors or any energy efficiency improvements due to technical progress is outweighed by other exogenous factors. - Highlights: • Electricity demand function is estimated by applying the STSM approach. • The results suggest that nature of trend is stochastic in form. • Low price elasticity reflects weak link between the electricity price and demand. • Low price elasticity implies that demand did not react to changes in price

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

Science.gov (United States)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

The Hotel as the Holiday/Stay destination: Trends and Innovations.

OpenAIRE

Hackett, Gereva; Melia, Detta

2012-01-01

This paper analyses trends in the international hotel industry and provides insights into the trends that are most likely to influence future business success. Trends, such as, design, social and lifestyle changes, the eco-hotel, the historically significant hotel, the sports hotel, the health spa, the quirky hotel, the boutique hotel and the fashionable hotel which are differentiating the traditional hotel product are discussed. This paper is based on primary and secondary research providing...

Attributing regional trends of evapotranspiration and gross primary productivity with remote sensing: a case study in the North China Plain

Science.gov (United States)

Mo, Xingguo; Chen, Xuejuan; Hu, Shi; Liu, Suxia; Xia, Jun

2017-01-01

Attributing changes in evapotranspiration (ET) and gross primary productivity (GPP) is crucial for impact and adaptation assessment of the agro-ecosystems to climate change. Simulations with the VIP model revealed that annual ET and GPP slightly increased from 1981 to 2013 over the North China Plain. The tendencies of both ET and GPP were upward in the spring season, while they were weak and downward in the summer season. A complete factor analysis illustrated that the relative contributions of climatic change, CO2 fertilization, and management to the ET (GPP) trend were 56 (-32) %, -28 (25) %, and 68 (108) %, respectively. The decline of global radiation resulted from deteriorated aerosol and air pollution was the principal cause of GPP decline in summer, while air warming intensified the water cycle and advanced the plant productivity in the spring season. Generally, agronomic improvements were the principal drivers of crop productivity enhancement.

Detecting Variation Trends of Temperature and Precipitation for the Dadu River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ying Wu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes the variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Dadu River Basin of China based on observed records from fourteen meteorological stations. The magnitude of trends was estimated using Sen’s linear method while its statistical significance was evaluated using Mann-Kendall’s test. The results of analysis depict increase change from northwest to southeast of annual temperature and precipitation in space. In temporal scale, the annual temperature showed significant increase trend and the annual precipitation showed increase trend. For extreme indices, the trends for temperature are more consistent in the region compared to precipitation. This paper has practical meanings for an effective management of climate risk and provides a foundation for further study of hydrological situation in this river basin.

An overview of atmospheric mercury monitoring at Auchencorth Moss, the UK EMEP Supersite in southern Scotland: trends, patterns and a source analysis

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Kentisbeer J.

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Speciated atmospheric mercury has been measures semi-continuously at the Auchencorth Moss field site in southern Scotland since 2004. Here we present an analysis of the data from 2009 to 2011 for the three species: elemental, gaseous oxidized (GOM and particulate bound (PBM mercury. Measurements of elemental mercury were made using the Tekran 2537A analyser and the Tekran 1130 and 1135 speciation units were used to collect GOM and PBM respectively. The data shows no upward or downward trend for elemental mercury, with yearly average concentrations between 1.3 and 1.5 ng m-3. We will continue the work started in Kentisbeer et al, 2010 to analyse the effect of wind direction on the mercury species, making further of air mass back trajectories and introducing cluster analysis to investigate the effects of longer rangetransport to the site.

Fault-Related Controls on Upward Hydrothermal Flow: An Integrated Geological Study of the Têt Fault System, Eastern Pyrénées (France

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Audrey Taillefer

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The way faults control upward fluid flow in nonmagmatic hydrothermal systems in extensional context is still unclear. In the Eastern Pyrénées, an alignment of twenty-nine hot springs (29°C to 73°C, along the normal Têt fault, offers the opportunity to study this process. Using an integrated multiscale geological approach including mapping, remote sensing, and macro- and microscopic analyses of fault zones, we show that emergence is always located in crystalline rocks at gneiss-metasediments contacts, mostly in the Têt fault footwall. The hot springs distribution is related to high topographic reliefs, which are associated with fault throw and segmentation. In more detail, emergence localizes either (1 in brittle fault damage zones at the intersection between the Têt fault and subsidiary faults or (2 in ductile faults where dissolution cavities are observed along foliations, allowing juxtaposition of metasediments. Using these observations and 2D simple numerical simulation, we propose a hydrogeological model of upward hydrothermal flow. Meteoric fluids, infiltrated at high elevation in the fault footwall relief, get warmer at depth because of the geothermal gradient. Topography-related hydraulic gradient and buoyancy forces cause hot fluid rise along permeability anisotropies associated with lithological juxtapositions, fracture, and fault zone compositions.

Investigation of forced convection heat transfer of supercritical pressure water in a vertically upward internally ribbed tube

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jianguo; Li Huixiong; Guo Bin; Yu Shuiqing; Zhang Yuqian; Chen Tingkuan

2009-01-01

In the present paper, the forced convection heat transfer characteristics of water in a vertically upward internally ribbed tube at supercritical pressures were investigated experimentally. The six-head internally ribbed tube is made of SA-213T12 steel with an outer diameter of 31.8 mm and a wall thickness of 6 mm and the mean inside diameter of the tube is measured to be 17.6 mm. The experimental parameters were as follows. The pressure at the inlet of the test section varied from 25.0 to 29.0 MPa, and the mass flux was from 800 to 1200 kg/(m 2 s), and the inside wall heat flux ranged from 260 to 660 kW/m 2 . According to experimental data, the effects of heat flux and pressure on heat transfer of supercritical pressure water in the vertically upward internally ribbed tube were analyzed, and the characteristics and mechanisms of heat transfer enhancement, and also that of heat transfer deterioration, were also discussed in the so-called large specific heat region. The drastic changes in thermophysical properties near the pseudocritical points, especially the sudden rise in the specific heat of water at supercritical pressures, may result in the occurrence of the heat transfer enhancement, while the covering of the heat transfer surface by fluids lighter and hotter than the bulk fluid makes the heat transfer deteriorated eventually and explains how this lighter fluid layer forms. It was found that the heat transfer characteristics of water at supercritical pressures were greatly different from the single-phase convection heat transfer at subcritical pressures. There are three heat transfer modes of water at supercritical pressures: (1) normal heat transfer, (2) deteriorated heat transfer with low HTC but high wall temperatures in comparison to the normal heat transfer, and (3) enhanced heat transfer with high HTC and low wall temperatures in comparison to the normal heat transfer. It was also found that the heat transfer deterioration at supercritical pressures was

Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

Science.gov (United States)

Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

2009-01-01

stations. Flow-adjustment procedures were used with these techniques at all stations to remove the effects of streamflow on water-quality variability. Flow adjustments were used for all constituents, except temperature. A decreasing trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent; whereas, an increasing trend indicates an increase in concentration and potential degradation in water quality. Trend results varied statewide by station and by physical property and water-quality constituent. The results for all stations and all physical properties and water-quality constituents examined had at least one statistically significant (p-value <0.05) increasing or decreasing trend during the specified period of record. Water temperature and concentrations of dissolved oxygen had no significant decreasing trends at any station. Water temperature had one significant increasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. Specific conductance and concentrations of hardness had one significant decreasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. pH also had a significant decreasing trend at the Mud River near Gus station. Concentrations of total suspended solids had 1 increasing trend at the Kentucky River at High Bridge station and 10 decreasing trends with 5 of those stations located in the Cumberland River Basin. Major ions analyzed for trends included chloride and sulfate. Concentrations of chloride at the 37 stations had increasing trends at 15 stations, decreasing trends at 3 stations, and no significant trend in concentration over time at 19 stations. Most of the increasing trends in concentrations of chloride are located in the northern part of Kentucky, possibly indicating an increase in the use of road salts for road deicing and (or) the result of resource extraction (oil, gas, and coal). Increasing trends of sulfate concentrations were detected at seven stations, all located in the Appalachian

Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

2015-04-01

This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

Disparities of time trends and birth cohort effects on invasive breast cancer incidence in Shanghai and Hong Kong pre- and post-menopausal women.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Feng; Tse, Lap Ah; Chan, Wing-Cheong; Kwok, Carol Chi-Hei; Leung, Siu-Lan; Wu, Cherry; Mang, Oscar Wai-Kong; Ngan, Roger Kai-Cheong; Li, Mengjie; Yu, Wai-Cho; Tsang, Koon-Ho; Law, Sze-Hong; Miao, Xiaoping; Wu, Chunxiao; Zheng, Ying; Wu, Fan; Yang, Xiaohong R; Yu, Ignatius Tak-Sun

2017-05-23

Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer morbidity among Shanghai and Hong Kong women, which contributes to 20-25% of new female cancer incidents. This study aimed to describe the temporal trend of breast cancer and interpret the potential effects on the observed secular trends. Cancer incident data were obtained from the cancer registries. Age-standardized incidence rate was computed by the direct method using the World population of 2000. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) in incidence rate was estimated by the Joinpoint regression. Age, period and cohort effects were assessed by using a log-linear model with Poisson regression. During 1976-2009, an increasing trend of breast cancer incidence was observed, with an AAPC of 1.73 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.54-1.92)] for women in Hong Kong and 2.83 (95% CI, 2.26-3.40) in Shanghai. Greater upward trends were revealed in Shanghai women aged 50 years old or above (AAPC = 3.09; 95% CI, 1.48-4.73). Using age at 50 years old as cut-point, strong birth cohort effects were shown in both pre- and post-menopausal women, though a more remarkable effect was suggested in Shanghai post-menopausal women. No evidence for a period effect was indicated. Incidence rate of breast cancer has been more speedy in Shanghai post-menopausal women than that of the Hong Kong women over the past 30 years. Decreased birth rate and increasing environmental exposures (e.g., light-at-night) over successive generations may have constituted major impacts on the birth cohort effects, especially for the post-menopausal breast cancer; further analytic studies are warranted.

Brief Communication: Likelihood of societal preparedness for global change: trend detection

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R. M. Vogel

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Anthropogenic influences on earth system processes are now pervasive, resulting in trends in river discharge, pollution levels, ocean levels, precipitation, temperature, wind, landslides, bird and plant populations and a myriad of other important natural hazards relating to earth system state variables. Thousands of trend detection studies have been published which report the statistical significance of observed trends. Unfortunately, such studies only concentrate on the null hypothesis of "no trend". Little or no attention is given to the power of such statistical trend tests, which would quantify the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. The probability of missing the trend, if it exists, known as the type II error, informs us about the likelihood of whether or not society is prepared to accommodate and respond to such trends. We describe how the power or probability of detecting a trend if it exists, depends critically on our ability to develop improved multivariate deterministic and statistical methods for predicting future trends in earth system processes. Several other research and policy implications for improving our understanding of trend detection and our societal response to those trends are discussed.

Multi-Scale Long-Range Magnitude and Sign Correlations in Vertical Upward Oil-Gas-Water Three-Phase Flow

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, An; Jin, Ning-de; Ren, Ying-yu; Zhu, Lei; Yang, Xia

2016-01-01

In this article we apply an approach to identify the oil-gas-water three-phase flow patterns in vertical upwards 20 mm inner-diameter pipe based on the conductance fluctuating signals. We use the approach to analyse the signals with long-range correlations by decomposing the signal increment series into magnitude and sign series and extracting their scaling properties. We find that the magnitude series relates to nonlinear properties of the original time series, whereas the sign series relates to the linear properties. The research shows that the oil-gas-water three-phase flows (slug flow, churn flow, bubble flow) can be classified by a combination of scaling exponents of magnitude and sign series. This study provides a new way of characterising linear and nonlinear properties embedded in oil-gas-water three-phase flows.

Pattern recognition techniques for horizontal and vertically upward multiphase flow measurement

Science.gov (United States)

Arubi, Tesi I. M.; Yeung, Hoi

2012-03-01

The oil and gas industry need for high performing and low cost multiphase meters is ever more justified given the rapid depletion of conventional oil reserves that has led oil companies to develop smaller and marginal fields and reservoirs in remote locations and deep offshore, thereby placing great demands for compact and more cost effective solutions of on-line continuous multiphase flow measurement for well testing, production monitoring, production optimisation, process control and automation. The pattern recognition approach for clamp-on multiphase measurement employed in this study provides one means for meeting this need. High speed caesium-137 radioisotope-based densitometers were installed vertically at the top of a 50.8mm and 101.6mm riser as well as horizontally at the riser base in the Cranfield University multiphase flow test facility. A comprehensive experimental campaign comprising flow conditions typical of operating conditions found in the Petroleum Industry was conducted. The application of a single gamma densitometer unit, in conjunction with pattern recognition techniques to determine both the phase volume fractions and velocities to yield the individual phase flow rates of horizontal and vertically upward multiphase flows was investigated. The pattern recognition systems were trained to map the temporal fluctuations in the multiphase mixture density with the individual phase flow rates using statistical features extracted from the gamma counts signals as their inputs. Initial results yielded individual phase flow rate predictions to within ±5% relative error for the two phase airwater flows and ±10% for three phase air-oil-water flows data.

Botulinum Toxin Dosing Trends in Spasmodic Dysphonia Over a 20-year Period.

Science.gov (United States)

Namin, Arya W; Christopher, Kara M; Eisenbeis, John F

2017-01-01

The study aims to (1) identify the botulinum toxin (BTX) dosing trend in a cohort of patients who received at least 20 injections for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADSD), (2) describe two distinct BTX dosing trends in treating ADSD (a "classic" dosing trend that initially decreases before stabilizing, and a "fluctuating" dosing trend), and (3) determine if patients with the "classic" dosing trend differed in age or in dosing intervals from those with the "fluctuating" dosing trend. This is a retrospective case series. Of 149 patients who received a total of 2484 BTX injections for the treatment of spasmodic dysphonia in 1993-2013, 49 patients received at least 20 injections. The BTX dose and the interval between doses were recorded. The mean dose of injections 1-20 was determined. The age at initial injection, initial dose, and interval in days between treatments were compared for the "fluctuating" and "classic" groups. The cohort exhibits a significant decrease in dose during the first 10-15 injections. The "fluctuating" group had a significantly shorter interval between injections (mean interval = 97.09 days, SD = 29.41; mean interval = 136.90 days, SD = 43.76, P = 0.002). The mean age at initial dose was not significantly different between the "classic" and "fluctuating" groups. The average BTX dose of patients with ADSD who receive long-term injections significantly decreases during the initial 10-15 injections before stabilizing. Patients who exhibit the "fluctuating" dosing pattern have a significantly shorter interval between injections than those with the "classic" dosing pattern. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accurate market price formation model with both supply-demand and trend-following for global food prices providing policy recommendations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2015-11-10

Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger.

Solar radiation in Germany - observed trends and an assessment of the causes. Pt. 2; Detailed trend analysis for Hamburg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grabbe, G C [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Grassl, H [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst. Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

1994-02-01

In Part II, more detailed observations of solar radiation hourly averages of Hamburg were analysed. Global solar radiation, strongly influenced by clouds, decreased with a low significance between 1964 and 1989. The significance of the trend of increasing direct solar radiation in the same period is very weak, because the clouds play the dominant role. The diffuse solar radiation, which is a safe indicator for trends in solar irradiance, because it is relatively independent of the weather, decreased between 1964 and 1989. The reasons for this decrease are the measures to clean the air. Between 1975 and 1987 the diffuse solar radiation increased slightly. The reason for this fact is a doubling of optically active aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer in this time period. (orig.)

Global Changes of the Water Cycle Intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Walker, Gregory K.

2003-01-01

In this study, we evaluate numerical simulations of the twentieth century climate, focusing on the changes in the intensity of the global water cycle. A new diagnostic of atmospheric water vapor cycling rate is developed and employed, that relies on constituent tracers predicted at the model time step. This diagnostic is compared to a simplified traditional calculation of cycling rate, based on monthly averages of precipitation and total water content. The mean sensitivity of both diagnostics to variations in climate forcing is comparable. However, the new diagnostic produces systematically larger values and more variability than the traditional average approach. Climate simulations were performed using SSTs of the early (1902-1921) and late (1979- 1998) twentieth century along with the appropriate C02 forcing. In general, the increase of global precipitation with the increases in SST that occurred between the early and late twentieth century is small. However, an increase of atmospheric temperature leads to a systematic increase in total precipitable water. As a result, the residence time of water in the atmosphere increased, indicating a reduction of the global cycling rate. This result was explored further using a number of 50-year climate simulations from different models forced with observed SST. The anomalies and trends in the cycling rate and hydrologic variables of different GCMs are remarkably similar. The global annual anomalies of precipitation show a significant upward trend related to the upward trend of surface temperature, during the latter half of the twentieth century. While this implies an increase in the hydrologic cycle intensity, a concomitant increase of total precipitable water again leads to a decrease in the calculated global cycling rate. An analysis of the land/sea differences shows that the simulated precipitation over land has a decreasing trend while the oceanic precipitation has an upward trend consistent with previous studies and the

Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hůnová, Iva; Maznová, Jana; Kurfürst, Pavel

2014-01-01

We present the temporal trends and spatial changes of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests based on records from long-term monitoring. A statistically significant trend for sulphur was detected at most of the sites measuring for wet, dry, and total deposition fluxes and at many of these the trend was also present for the period after 2000. The spatial pattern of the changes in sulphur deposition flux between 1995 and 2011 shows the decrease over the entire forested area in a wide range of 18.1–0.2 g m −2 year −1 with the most pronounced improvement in formerly most impacted regions. Nitrogen still represents a considerable stress in many areas. The value of nitrogen deposition flux of 1 g m −2 year −1 is exceeded over a significant portion of the country. On an equivalent basis, the ion ratios of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− and NH 4 + /SO 4 2− in precipitation show significantly increasing trends in time similarly to those of pH. -- Highlights: • Significant decrease of sulphur deposition at most of sites has been recorded. • Nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests. • Significantly increasing trends of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− , NH 4 + /SO 4 2− , and pH in precipitation. -- While sulphur deposition significantly decreased with the highest improvement in formerly most affected areas, nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests

CHINA'S INTERNATIONAL TOURISM UNDER ECONOMIC TRANSITION: NATIONAL TRENDS AND REGIONAL DISPARITIES

OpenAIRE

Liang, Chyi-Lyi (Kathleen); Guo, Rong; Wang, Qingbin

2003-01-01

China's Tourism industry, especially international tourism, has expanded rapidly since its market-oriented economic reform started in 1978. There has been limited information regarding the trends and regional disparities. This paper examines the national trends of China's international tourism since 1982 and analyzes the changes in regional disparities since 1995. While the trend analysis suggests that China's international tourism is likely to keep growing at a significant rate, the analysis...

Current trends in ion implantation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gwilliam, R.M.

2001-01-01

As semiconductor device dimensions continue to shrink, the drive beyond 250 nm is creating significant problems for the device processor. In particular, trends toward shallower-junctions, lower thermal budgets and simplified processing steps present severe challenges to ion implantation. In parallel with greater control of the implant process goes the need for a better understanding of the physical processes involved during implantation and subsequent activation annealing. For instance, the need for an understanding of dopant-defect interaction is paramount as defects mediate a number of technologically important phenomena such as transient enhanced diffusion and impurity gettering. This paper will outline the current trends in the ion implantation and some of the challenges it faces in the next decade, as described in the semiconductor roadmap. It will highlight some recent positron annihilation work that has made a contribution to addressing one of these challenges, namely the need for tighter control of implant uniformity and dose. Additionally, some vacancy-mediated processes are described with the implication that these may provide areas in which positron annihilation spectroscopy could make a significant contribution. (orig.)

Oil prices: Breaks and trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Noguera, José

2013-01-01

This paper contributes to the literature of the stationarity of financial time series and the literature on oil and macroeconomics in several ways. First, it uses Kejriwal and Perron (2010) sequential procedure to endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices without facing the circular testing problem between structural changes and stationary assumptions of previous tests. Second, it performs a diagnostic check to detect the significance and magnitude of the potential breaks. Third, it uses the above information to test for the existence of stochastic trends in real oil prices, and fourth, it speculates about possible explanations for the break dates found in order to encourage further work and discussions. The exercise uses monthly data from January 1861 to August 2011. - Highlights: ► The model endogenously determine multiple structural changes in real oil prices. ► The methods used does not face the circular testing problem. ► It also detect the significance and magnitude of the breaks detected. ► It tests for the existence of stochastic trends. ► It explains the reasons for the break dates found

Association between climatic elements and acute appendicitis in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Yasuto; Kojimahara, Noriko; Kiyohara, Kosuke; Endo, Motoki; Yamaguchi, Naohito

2017-05-01

In Japan, it has been reported that an increase in atmospheric pressure is associated with a higher incidence of acute appendicitis. The aim of this epidemiologic study was to investigate the association between climatic elements and the incidence of acute appendicitis. A case-crossover design was used in the present study. Two wk before diagnosis was used for the target period. The same 2-wk period, but 1, 2, and 3 y before diagnosis, was used for the control period. The study participants were patients with acute appendicitis (10-29 y) from 14 facilities in the Greater Tokyo Area. Mean of the observed values for atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, and hours of sunshine calculated for each target and control period were used as climatic elements to investigate trends 1 and 2 wk before diagnosis. The year of diagnosis, a statistically significant moderate upward trend in atmospheric pressure was observed during the 2-wk period before diagnosis of acute appendicitis (tau = 0.47; P = 0.0213), whereas a weak nonsignificant downward trend was observed 1 y before diagnosis (tau = -0.29; P = 0.1596), and weak nonsignificant upward trends were observed 2 (tau = 0.24; P = 0.2505) and 3 y (tau = 0.28; P = 0.1634) before diagnosis. An association was found between atmospheric pressure and the incidence of acute appendicitis. However, no significant differences were found in relation to sex or age. These findings suggest that changes in atmospheric pressure are associated with the likelihood of patients visiting the hospital. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The bark of the branches of holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) for a retrospective study of trace elements in the atmosphere

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drava, Giuliana; Brignole, Daniele; Giordani, Paolo; Minganti, Vincenzo

2017-01-01

Tree bark has proved to be a useful bioindicator for trace elements in the atmosphere, however it reflects an exposure occurring during an unidentified period of time, so it provides spatial information about the distribution of contaminants in a certain area, but it cannot be used to detect temporal changes or trends, which is an important achievement in environmental studies. In order to obtain information about a known period of time, the bark collected from the annual segments of tree branches can be used, allowing analyses going back 10–15 years with annual resolution. In the present study, the concentrations of As, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were measured by atomic emission spectrometry in a series of samples covering the period from 2001 to 2013 in an urban environment. Downward time trends were significant for Cd, Pb and Zn. The only trace element showing an upward time trend was V. The concentrations of the remaining six trace elements were constant over time, showing that their presence in bark is not simply proportional to the duration of exposure. This approach, which is simple, reliable and widely applicable at a low cost, allows the “a posteriori” reconstruction of atmospheric trace element deposition when or where no monitoring programme is in progress and no other natural archives are available. - Highlights: • Branch bark allows the historical reconstruction of atmospheric trace elements. • This approach is simple, reliable, widely applicable and “a posteriori”. • Downward time trends were found for Cd, Pb and Zn; upward trend for V.

The bark of the branches of holm oak (Quercus ilex L.) for a retrospective study of trace elements in the atmosphere

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drava, Giuliana, E-mail: drava@difar.unige.it; Brignole, Daniele; Giordani, Paolo; Minganti, Vincenzo

2017-04-15

Tree bark has proved to be a useful bioindicator for trace elements in the atmosphere, however it reflects an exposure occurring during an unidentified period of time, so it provides spatial information about the distribution of contaminants in a certain area, but it cannot be used to detect temporal changes or trends, which is an important achievement in environmental studies. In order to obtain information about a known period of time, the bark collected from the annual segments of tree branches can be used, allowing analyses going back 10–15 years with annual resolution. In the present study, the concentrations of As, Cd, Co, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, V and Zn were measured by atomic emission spectrometry in a series of samples covering the period from 2001 to 2013 in an urban environment. Downward time trends were significant for Cd, Pb and Zn. The only trace element showing an upward time trend was V. The concentrations of the remaining six trace elements were constant over time, showing that their presence in bark is not simply proportional to the duration of exposure. This approach, which is simple, reliable and widely applicable at a low cost, allows the “a posteriori” reconstruction of atmospheric trace element deposition when or where no monitoring programme is in progress and no other natural archives are available. - Highlights: • Branch bark allows the historical reconstruction of atmospheric trace elements. • This approach is simple, reliable, widely applicable and “a posteriori”. • Downward time trends were found for Cd, Pb and Zn; upward trend for V.

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

Multi-scale analysis of teleconnection indices: climate noise and nonlinear trend analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Franzke

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The multi-scale nature and climate noise properties of teleconnection indices are examined by using the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD procedure. The EMD procedure allows for the analysis of non-stationary time series to extract physically meaningful intrinsic mode functions (IMF and nonlinear trends. The climatologically relevant monthly mean teleconnection indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, the North Pacific index (NP and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM are analyzed.

The significance of IMFs and trends are tested against the null hypothesis of climate noise. The analysis of surrogate monthly mean time series from a red noise process shows that the EMD procedure is effectively a dyadic filter bank and the IMFs (except the first IMF are nearly Gaussian distributed. The distribution of the variance contained in IMFs of an ensemble of AR(1 simulations is nearly χ² distributed. To test the statistical significance of the IMFs of the teleconnection indices and their nonlinear trends we utilize an ensemble of corresponding monthly averaged AR(1 processes, which we refer to as climate noise. Our results indicate that most of the interannual and decadal variability of the analysed teleconnection indices cannot be distinguished from climate noise. The NP and SAM indices have significant nonlinear trends, while the NAO has no significant trend when tested against a climate noise hypothesis.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Ambient air quality trends in Alberta

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This document provided an overview of ambient air pollutant trends in Alberta. The report discussed the following pollutants having effect on human and environmental health: carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulphide (H2 S ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), fine particulate matter (PM 2 .5), benzene, and benzopyrene. Each of these pollutants was described. The report provided data on annual average concentration trends and annual 99th percentile concentration as an indicator of peak concentrations. A map illustrating air quality monitoring stations in 2006 was also provided. The findings revealed that mean annual CO levels were the lowest they have been since 1990; hydrogen sulphide concentrations have fluctuated in time since 1990; most Edmonton and Calgary area stations showed significant decreasing trends in annual average NO 2 levels since 1990; and higher SO 2 concentrations have been found in the industrial areas of Alberta, such as the Redwater and Scotford oil sands locations. tabs., figs

Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna M Magera

Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Vigouroux

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trends of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH₄, C₂H₆, N₂O, CHClF₂, and O₃ have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground-10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

Variation of Temperature and Precipitation in Urban Agglomeration and Prevention Suggestion of Waterlogging in Middle and Lower Reaches of Yangtze River

Science.gov (United States)

Na, Liu; Youjie, Jin; Jiaqi, Dai

2018-03-01

The variation trend of temperature and precipitation during flood season in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River basin in recent 50 years and change characteristics of rainfall in five typical flood prone cities are analysed. Aiming at waterlogging problems in the urban agglomeration of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the comprehensive prevention and control suggestions are put forward. The results showed that: the temperature trend in the basin decreased and then increased, and the precipitation showed a downward-rising-downward trend, no mutation occurred; The incidence of heavy rainfall events in the five typical cities with daily rainfall more than 50mm showed an upward trend, and increased significantly after 2002. The intensity of precipitation increased gradually. Climate change makes urban agglomeration waterlogging disasters become increasingly prominent in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morris, Joan K.; Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth

2018-01-01

and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid...... of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random- effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003-2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects...

Mechanism of jet-flutter: self-induced oscillation of an upward plane jet impinging on a free surface

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madarame, Haruki; Iida, Masao

1998-01-01

An upward plane jet impinging on the free surface of a shallow rectangular tank oscillates without any external periodic force. The movement of the impinging point leaves additional fluid mass on the surface behind the point, which does not balance the momentum supplied by the jet. The imbalance generates propagating waves, and a surface level gap appears there. The level gap is flattened not by the waves but by the vertical motion of water columns. The imbalance causes lateral displacement of jet, which in turn causes the imbalance, forming a positive feedback loop. The above model explains well why the frequency corresponds to that of water column oscillation in a partitioned tank with the same water depth, and the oscillation region has a wide range above a certain velocity limit determined by the water depth. (author)

Hydrological influences on long-term gas flow trends at locations in the Vogtland/NW Bohemian seismic region (German-Czech border

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Heinicke

2007-06-01

Full Text Available One of the typical methods for the identification of seismo-hydrological effects is to monitor changes in the free gas flow throughout springs or mofettes. For several years, the gas flow regime of mineral springs at Bad Brambach (Germany and mofettes in the Nature Park Soos (Czech Republic and its dependence on hydro-/meteorological parameters have been studied. The mineral spring ‘Wettinquelle’, Bad Brambach, is a well-known seismo- hydrologically sensitive location for swarmquakes at a special epicentral area of NW Bohemia. Since 2000, a slight upward trend in the gas flow of three Bad Brambach mineral springs has been observed, which became stronger after the ‘Eisenquelle’ spring capture reconstruction (winter 2003/2004. Similar behaviour could be detected at a mofette in Soos. The results correspond to a 3He/4He mantle ratio increase in gases at mofettes in the Cheb Basin (CZ traced by other authors for more than 12 years, and could give hints for a higher degassing activity of the magma body below that area. Common and special properties in the degassing regimes of the Bad Brambach and Soos locations are discussed. It is demonstrated that the long-term gas flow trend was interrupted in 2003 because of very low groundwater levels. This effect was amplified by the artificial groundwater lowering during the ‘Eisenquelle’ spring capture reconstruction.

Identification of retinal ganglion cells and their projections involved in central transmission of information about upward and downward image motion.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Keisuke Yonehara

Full Text Available The direction of image motion is coded by direction-selective (DS ganglion cells in the retina. Particularly, the ON DS ganglion cells project their axons specifically to terminal nuclei of the accessory optic system (AOS responsible for optokinetic reflex (OKR. We recently generated a knock-in mouse in which SPIG1 (SPARC-related protein containing immunoglobulin domains 1-expressing cells are visualized with GFP, and found that retinal ganglion cells projecting to the medial terminal nucleus (MTN, the principal nucleus of the AOS, are comprised of SPIG1+ and SPIG1(- ganglion cells distributed in distinct mosaic patterns in the retina. Here we examined light responses of these two subtypes of MTN-projecting cells by targeted electrophysiological recordings. SPIG1+ and SPIG1(- ganglion cells respond preferentially to upward motion and downward motion, respectively, in the visual field. The direction selectivity of SPIG1+ ganglion cells develops normally in dark-reared mice. The MTN neurons are activated by optokinetic stimuli only of the vertical motion as shown by Fos expression analysis. Combination of genetic labeling and conventional retrograde labeling revealed that axons of SPIG1+ and SPIG1(- ganglion cells project to the MTN via different pathways. The axon terminals of the two subtypes are organized into discrete clusters in the MTN. These results suggest that information about upward and downward image motion transmitted by distinct ON DS cells is separately processed in the MTN, if not independently. Our findings provide insights into the neural mechanisms of OKR, how information about the direction of image motion is deciphered by the AOS.

Cancer burden trends in Umbria region using a joinpoint regression

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giuseppe Michele Masanotti

2015-09-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION. The analysis of the epidemiological data on cancer is an important tool to control and evaluate the outcomes of primary and secondary prevention, the effectiveness of health care and, in general, all cancer control activities. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The aim of the this paper is to analyze the cancer mortality in the Umbria region from 1978 to 2009 and incidence from 1994-2008. Sex and site-specific trends for standardized rates were analyzed by "joinpoint regression", using the surveillance epidemiology and end results (SEER software. RESULTS. Applying the jointpoint analyses by sex and cancer site, to incidence spanning from 1994 to 2008 and mortality from 1978 to 2009 for all sites, both in males and females, a significant joinpoint for mortality was found; moreover the trend shape was similar and the joinpoint years were very close. In males standardized rate significantly increased up to 1989 by 1.23% per year and significantly decreased thereafter by -1.31%; among females the mortality rate increased in average of 0.78% (not significant per year till 1988 and afterward significantly decreased by -0.92% per year. Incidence rate showed different trends among sexes. In males was practically constant over the period studied (not significant increase 0.14% per year, in females significantly increased by 1.49% per year up to 2001 and afterward slowly decreased (-0.71% n.s. estimated annual percent change − EAPC. CONCLUSIONS. For all sites combined trends for mortality decreased since late '80s, both in males and females; such behaviour is in line with national and European Union data. This work shows that, even compared to health systems that invest more resources, the Umbria public health system achieved good health outcomes.

Large blackouts in North America: Historical trends and policy implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hines, Paul; Apt, Jay; Talukdar, Sarosh

2009-01-01

Using data from the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) for 1984-2006, we find several trends. We find that the frequency of large blackouts in the United States has not decreased over time, that there is a statistically significant increase in blackout frequency during peak hours of the day and during late summer and mid-winter months (although non-storm-related risk is nearly constant through the year) and that there is strong statistical support for the previously observed power-law statistical relationship between blackout size and frequency. We do not find that blackout sizes and blackout durations are significantly correlated. These trends hold even after controlling for increasing demand and population and after eliminating small events, for which the data may be skewed by spotty reporting. Trends in blackout occurrences, such as those observed in the North American data, have important implications for those who make investment and policy decisions in the electricity industry. We provide a number of examples that illustrate how these trends can inform benefit-cost analysis calculations. Also, following procedures used in natural disaster planning we use the observed statistical trends to calculate the size of the 100-year blackout, which for North America is 186,000 MW.

Benchmarking 2010: Trends in Education Philanthropy

Science.gov (United States)

Bearman, Jessica

2010-01-01

"Benchmarking 2010" offers insights into the current priorities, practices and concerns of education grantmakers. The report is divided into five sections: (1) Mapping the Education Grantmaking Landscape; (2) 2010 Funding Priorities; (3) Strategies for Leveraging Greater Impact; (4) Identifying Significant Trends in Education Funding; and (5)…

Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

Science.gov (United States)

Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2012-12-01

Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

Decadal trends in atmospheric deposition in a high elevation station: Effects of climate and pollution on the long-range flux of metals and trace elements over SW Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Camarero, Lluís; Bacardit, Montserrat; de Diego, Alberto; Arana, Gorka

2017-10-01

Atmospheric deposition collected at remote, high elevation stations is representative of long-range transport of elements. Here we present time-series of Al, Fe, Ti, Mn, Zn, Ni, Cu, As, Cd and Pb deposition sampled in the Central Pyrenees at 2240 m a.s.l, representative of the fluxes of these elements over South West Europe. Trace element deposition did not show a simple trend. Rather, there was statistical evidence of several underlying factors governing the variability of the time-series recorded: seasonal cycles, trends, the effects of the amount of precipitation, climate-controlled export of dust, and changes in anthropogenic emissions. Overall, there were three main modes of variation in deposition. The first mode was related to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and affected Al, Fe, Ti, Mn and Pb. We interpret this as changes in the dust export from Northern Africa under the different meteorological conditions that the NAO index indicates. The second mode was an upward trend related to a rise in the frequency of precipitation events (that also lead to an increase in the amount). More frequent events might cause a higher efficiency in the scavenging of aerosols. As, Cu and Ni responded to this. And finally, the third mode of variation was related to changes in anthropogenic emissions of Pb and Zn.

Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)

2012-11-15

In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

2017-06-01

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

Non-parametric trend analysis of the aridity index for three large arid and semi-arid basins in Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Ahani, Hossien; Kherad, Mehrzad; Kousari, Mohammad Reza; van Roosmalen, Lieke; Aryanfar, Ramin; Hosseini, Seyyed Mashaallah

2013-05-01

Currently, an important scientific challenge that researchers are facing is to gain a better understanding of climate change at the regional scale, which can be especially challenging in an area with low and highly variable precipitation amounts such as Iran. Trend analysis of the medium-term change using ground station observations of meteorological variables can enhance our knowledge of the dominant processes in an area and contribute to the analysis of future climate projections. Generally, studies focus on the long-term variability of temperature and precipitation and to a lesser extent on other important parameters such as moisture indices. In this study the recent 50-year trends (1955-2005) of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and aridity index (AI) in monthly time scale were studied over 14 synoptic stations in three large Iran basins using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Additionally, an analysis of the monthly, seasonal and annual trend of each parameter was performed. Results showed no significant trends in the monthly time series. However, PET showed significant, mostly decreasing trends, for the seasonal values, which resulted in a significant negative trend in annual PET at five stations. Significant negative trends in seasonal P values were only found at a number of stations in spring and summer and no station showed significant negative trends in annual P. Due to the varied positive and negative trends in annual P and to a lesser extent PET, almost as many stations with negative as positive trends in annual AI were found, indicating that both drying and wetting trends occurred in Iran. Overall, the northern part of the study area showed an increasing trend in annual AI which meant that the region became wetter, while the south showed decreasing trends in AI.

Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Science.gov (United States)

Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.; Jones, S. D.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.; Ahlström, A.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H.; Heinze, C.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Arneth, A.; Bonan, G.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Ellis, R.; Gloor, M.; Peylin, P.; Piao, S. L.; Le Quéré, C.; Smith, B.; Zhu, Z.; Myneni, R.

2015-02-01

The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr-1 with a small significant trend of -0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr-2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr-1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of -0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr-2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr-2 - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (-0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr-2), with almost no trend over the northern land region

Up the Down Staircase: Women's Upward Mobility and the Wage Penalty for Occupational Feminization, 1970-2007

Science.gov (United States)

Mandel, Hadas

2013-01-01

This study examines the long-term trends of two parallel and related gender effects, in light of the hypothesis that highly rewarded occupations will be the most penalized by the process of feminization. Using multilevel models of the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series data from 1970 to 2007, the study analyzes trends in women's occupational…

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

Science.gov (United States)

Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

Trends in PET imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moses, William W.

2000-01-01

Positron Emission Tomography (PET) imaging is a well established method for obtaining information on the status of certain organs within the human body or in animals. This paper presents an overview of recent trends PET instrumentation. Significant effort is being expended to develop new PET detector modules, especially those capable of measuring depth of interaction. This is aided by recent advances in scintillator and pixellated photodetector technology. The other significant area of effort is development of special purpose PET cameras (such as for imaging breast cancer or small animals) or cameras that have the ability to image in more than one modality (such as PET / SPECT or PET / X-Ray CT)

Trends in family tourism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heike A. Schänzel

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Purpose – Families represent a large and growing market for the tourism industry. Family tourism is driven by the increasing importance placed on promoting family togetherness, keeping family bonds alive and creating family memories. Predictions for the future of family travel are shaped by changes in demography and social structures. With global mobility families are increasingly geographically dispersed and new family markets are emerging. The purpose of this paper is to discuss the trends that shape the understanding of families and family tourism. Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines ten trends that the authors as experts in the field identify of importance and significance for the future of family tourism. Findings – What emerges is that the future of family tourism lies in capturing the increasing heterogeneity, fluidity and mobility of the family market. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the understanding about the changes taking place in family tourism and what it means to the tourism industry in the future.

Multivariate multiscale complex network analysis of vertical upward oil-water two-phase flow in a small diameter pipe.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Zhong-Ke; Yang, Yu-Xuan; Zhai, Lu-Sheng; Dang, Wei-Dong; Yu, Jia-Liang; Jin, Ning-De

2016-02-02

High water cut and low velocity vertical upward oil-water two-phase flow is a typical complex system with the features of multiscale, unstable and non-homogenous. We first measure local flow information by using distributed conductance sensor and then develop a multivariate multiscale complex network (MMCN) to reveal the dispersed oil-in-water local flow behavior. Specifically, we infer complex networks at different scales from multi-channel measurements for three typical vertical oil-in-water flow patterns. Then we characterize the generated multiscale complex networks in terms of network clustering measure. The results suggest that the clustering coefficient entropy from the MMCN not only allows indicating the oil-in-water flow pattern transition but also enables to probe the dynamical flow behavior governing the transitions of vertical oil-water two-phase flow.

Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Y. Wang

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS, the trend of tropospheric ozone (O₃ during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photochemical production (3.1% yr⁻¹ for a mean level of 52 DU. This trend is close to the significant trend of partial column ozone in the lower troposphere (0–3 km resulting from the enhanced photochemical production during summer (3.0% yr⁻¹ for a mean level of 23 DU. Analysis of the CLaMS simulation shows that transport rather than chemistry drives most of the seasonality of tropospheric ozone. However, dynamical processes alone cannot explain the trend of tropospheric ozone in the observational data. Clearly enhanced ozone values and a negative vertical ozone gradient in the lower troposphere in the observational data emphasize the importance of photochemistry within the troposphere during spring and summer, and suggest that the photochemistry within the troposphere significantly contributes to the tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing during the last decade.

Overview of AEOD's program for trending reactor operational events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranowsky, P.W.; O'Reilly, P.D.; Rasmuson, D.M.; Houghton, J.R.

1994-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the trending program being performed by AEOD. The major elements of the program include: (1) system and component reliability trending and analysis, (2) special data collection and analysis (e.g., IPE and PRA component failure data, common cause failure event data), (3) risk assessment of safety issues based on actual operating experience, (4) Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) Program, and (5) trending US industry risk. AEOD plans to maintain up-to-date safety data trends for selected high risk or high regulatory profile components, systems, accident initiators, accident sequences, and regulatory issues. AEOD will also make greater use of PRA insights and perform limited probabilistic safety assessments to evaluate the safety significance of qualitative results. Examples of a system study and an issue evaluation are presented, as well as a summary of the common cause failure event database

Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Min, E; Hazeleger, W; Van Oldenborgh, G J; Sterl, A

2013-01-01

Projections of future changes in weather extremes on the regional and local scale depend on a realistic representation of trends in extremes in regional climate models (RCMs). We have tested this assumption for moderate high temperature extremes (the annual maximum of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, T ann.max ). Linear trends in T ann.max from historical runs of 14 RCMs driven by atmospheric reanalysis data are compared with trends in gridded station data. The ensemble of RCMs significantly underestimates the observed trends over most of the north-western European land surface. Individual models do not fare much better, with even the best performing models underestimating observed trends over large areas. We argue that the inability of RCMs to reproduce observed trends is probably not due to errors in large-scale circulation. There is also no significant correlation between the RCM T ann.max trends and trends in radiation or Bowen ratio. We conclude that care should be taken when using RCM data for adaptation decisions. (letter)

Surface tension effects on vertical upward annular flows in a small diameter pipe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sadatomi, Michio, E-mail: sadatomi@mech.kumamoto-u.ac.jp [Dept. of Advanced Mechanical Systems, Kumamoto Univ., 39-1, Kurokami 2-chome, Chuou-ku, Kumamoto 860-8555 (Japan); Kawahara, Akimaro [Dept. of Advanced Mechanical Systems, Kumamoto Univ., 39-1, Kurokami 2-chome, Chuou-ku, Kumamoto 860-8555 (Japan); Suzuki, Aruta [Plant Design & Engineering Dept., Environment, Energy & Plant Headquarters, Hitachi Zosen Corporation, 7-89, Nankokita 1-chome, Suminoe-ku, Osaka, 559-8559 (Japan)

2016-12-15

Highlights: • Surface tension effects were clarified on annular flow in a small diameter pipe. • The mean liquid film thickness became thinner with decreasing of surface tension. • The liquid droplet fraction and the interfacial shear stress became higher with it. • New prediction methods for the above parameters were developed and validated. - Abstract: Experiments were conducted to study the surface tension effects on vertical upward annular flows in a 5 mm I.D. pipe using water and low surface tension water with a little surfactant as the test liquid and air as the test gas. Firstly, the experimental results on the mean liquid film thickness, the liquid droplet fraction and the interfacial shear stress in annular flows together with some flow pictures are presented to clarify the surface tension effects. From these, the followings are clarified: In the low surface tension case, the liquid film surface becomes rough, the liquid film thickness thin, the liquid droplet fraction high, and the interfacial shear stress high. Secondary, correlations in literatures for the respective parameters are tested against the present data. The test results show that no correlation for the respective parameters could predict well the present data. Thus, correlations are revised by accounting for the surface tension effects. The results of the experiments, the correlations tests and their revisions mentioned above are presented in the present paper.

ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL TREND IN ETHIOPIA INTRODUCTION

African Journals Online (AJOL)

annual, Kiremt (June-September) and Belg (February-May) rainfall, using I 0 selected ... the significance of trends in hydrometer-logical time series (Yue et al., 2002(2)). The .... then the Auto Regressive One (AR (I)) is removed from the r,' by.

Development of Quantitative Framework for Event Significance Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Durk Hun; Kim, Min Chull; Kim, Inn Seock

2010-01-01

There is an increasing trend in quantitative evaluation of the safety significance of operational events using Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) technique. An integrated framework for evaluation of event significance has been developed by Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety (KINS), which consists of an assessment hierarchy and a number of matrices. The safety significance of various events, e.g., internal or external initiating events that occurred during at-power or shutdown conditions, can be quantitatively analyzed using this framework, and then, the events rated according to their significance. This paper briefly describes the basic concept of the integrated quantitative framework for evaluation of event significance, focusing on the assessment hierarchy

Space-time trends in U.S. meteorological droughts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poulomi Ganguli

2016-12-01

New hydrological insights for the region: The paper finds spatial coverage of extreme meteorological drought in the recent years (post-2010 exceeds that of the iconic droughts of the 1930s (the Dust Bowl era, and the 1950s. These results are in contrast with trends in spatial variance that does not exhibit any statistically significant trend. In addition, we find drought persistence remains relatively stationary over the last half century. The findings can inform drought monitoring and planning, and improve future drought resilience.

Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Incidence in Panama, Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Politis, Michael; Higuera, Gladys; Chang, Lissette Raquel; Gomez, Beatriz; Bares, Juan; Motta, Jorge

2015-06-01

Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight

Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2018-04-01

The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It

Trends in Mobile Application Development

Science.gov (United States)

Holzer, Adrian; Ondrus, Jan

Major software companies, such as Apple and Google, are disturbing the relatively safe and established actors of the mobile application business. These newcomers have caused significant structural changes by imposing and enforcing their own rules for the future of mobile application development. The implications of these changes do not only concern the mobile network operators and mobile phone manufacturers. This changed environment also brings additional opportunities and constraints for current mobile application developers. Therefore, developers need to assess what their options are and how they can take advantages of these current trends. In this paper, we take a developer’s perspective in order to explore how the structural changes will influence the mobile application development markets. Moreover, we discuss what aspects developers need to take into account in order to position themselves within the current trends.

Trends in workforce diversity in vascular surgery programs in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Kane, Katherine; Rosero, Eric B; Clagett, G Patrick; Adams-Huet, Beverley; Timaran, Carlos H

2009-06-01

U.S. black and Hispanic populations are growing at a steady pace. In contrast, the medical profession lacks the same minority growth and representation. Women are also under-represented in many surgical disciplines. The purpose of this study was to assess trends in the proportion of women, blacks, and Hispanics admitted to vascular surgery (VS) and related specialties, and to compare them with each other and with a surgical specialty, orthopedic surgery (OS), with a formal diversity initiative. Data on the fellowship pool of VS, interventional radiology (IR), and interventional cardiology (IC), as well as the resident pools of general surgery (GS) and orthopedic surgery (OS), were obtained from U.S. graduate medical education reports for 1999 through 2005. Cochrane-Armitage trend tests were used to assess trends in the proportion of females, blacks, and Hispanics in relation to the total physician workforce for each subspecialty. No significant trends in the proportion of females, blacks, or Hispanics accepted into VS and IC fellowship programs occurred during the study period. In contrast, IR, GS, and OS programs revealed significant trends for increasing proportions of at least one of the underrepresented study groups. In particular, OS, which has implemented a diversity awareness program, showed a positive trend in female and Hispanic trainees (P workforce diversity.

Use of flow-normalization to evaluate nutrient concentration and flux changes in Lake Champlain tributaries, 1990-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Medalie, Laura; Hirsch, Robert M.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey evaluated 20 years of total phosphorus (P) and total nitrogen (N) concentration data for 18 Lake Champlain tributaries using a new statistical method based on weighted regressions to estimate daily concentration and flux histories based on discharge, season, and trend as explanatory variables. The use of all the streamflow discharge values for a given date in the record, in a process called "flow-normalization," removed the year-to-year variation due to streamflow and generated a smooth time series from which trends were calculated. This approach to data analysis can be of great value to evaluations of the success of restoration efforts because it filters out the large random fluctuations in the flux that are due to the temporal variability in streamflow. Results for the full 20 years of record showed a mixture of upward and downward trends for concentrations and yields of P and N. When the record was broken into two 10-year periods, for many tributaries, the more recent period showed a reversal in N from upward to downward trends and a similar reversal or reduction in magnitude of upward trends for P. Some measures of P and N concentrations and yields appear to be related to intensity of agricultural activities, point-source loads of P, or population density. Total flow-normalized P flux aggregated from the monitored tributaries showed a decrease of 30 metric tons per year from 1991 to 2009, which is about 15% of the targeted reduction established by the operational management plan for the Lake Champlain Basin.

Analysis of trends of low flow in river stations in eastern Slovakia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martina Zeleňáková

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The availability of using hypothesis test techniques to identify the long-term trends of hydrological time series is investigated in this study. The aim is to analyse trends of low flows at streams in eastern Slovakia, namely Poprad, Hornád, Bodva, Bodrog river basins. The article presents a methodology for prediction of hydrological drought based on statistical testing of low stream flows by non-parametric statistical test. The main objective is to identify low flow trends in the selected 63 river stations in eastern Slovakia. The stations with human impacts are also evaluated. The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test has been used to detect trends in hydrological time series. Statistically significant trends have been determined from the trend lines for the whole territory of eastern Slovakia. The results indicate that the observed changes in Slovakian river basins do not have a clearly defined trend.

Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

2018-05-01

A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

Upward migration of Vesuvius magma chamber over the past 20,000 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Scaillet, B; Pichavant, M; Cioni, R

2008-09-11

Forecasting future eruptions of Vesuvius is an important challenge for volcanologists, as its reawakening could threaten the lives of 700,000 people living near the volcano. Critical to the evaluation of hazards associated with the next eruption is the estimation of the depth of the magma reservoir, one of the main parameters controlling magma properties and eruptive style. Petrological studies have indicated that during past activity, magma chambers were at depths between 3 and 16 km (refs 3-7). Geophysical surveys have imaged some levels of seismic attenuation, the shallowest of which lies at 8-9 km depth, and these have been tentatively interpreted as levels of preferential magma accumulation. By using experimental phase equilibria, carried out on material from four main explosive events at Vesuvius, we show here that the reservoirs that fed the eruptive activity migrated from 7-8 km to 3-4 km depth between the ad 79 (Pompeii) and ad 472 (Pollena) events. If data from the Pomici di Base event 18.5 kyr ago and the 1944 Vesuvius eruption are included, the total upward migration of the reservoir amounts to 9-11 km. The change of preferential magma ponding levels in the upper crust can be attributed to differences in the volatile content and buoyancy of ascending magmas, as well as to changes in local stress field following either caldera formation or volcano spreading. Reservoir migration, and the possible influence on feeding rates, should be integrated into the parameters used for defining expected eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius.

On the Nature of Trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mackinney-Valentin, Maria

2010-01-01

A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

Trend analysis of body weight parameters, mortality, and incidence of spontaneous tumors in Tg.rasH2 mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Paranjpe, Madhav G; Denton, Melissa D; Vidmar, Tom; Elbekai, Reem H

2014-01-01

Carcinogenicity studies have been performed in conventional 2-year rodent studies for at least 3 decades, whereas the short-term carcinogenicity studies in transgenic mice, such as Tg.rasH2, have only been performed over the last decade. In the 2-year conventional rodent studies, interlinked problems, such as increasing trends in the initial body weights, increased body weight gains, high incidence of spontaneous tumors, and low survival, that complicate the interpretation of findings have been well established. However, these end points have not been evaluated in the short-term carcinogenicity studies involving the Tg.rasH2 mice. In this article, we present retrospective analysis of data obtained from control groups in 26-week carcinogenicity studies conducted in Tg.rasH2 mice since 2004. Our analysis showed statistically significant decreasing trends in initial body weights of both sexes. Although the terminal body weights did not show any significant trends, there was a statistically significant increasing trend toward body weight gains, more so in males than in females, which correlated with increasing trends in the food consumption. There were no statistically significant alterations in mortality trends. In addition, the incidence of all common spontaneous tumors remained fairly constant with no statistically significant differences in trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

Time trends in disability pensioning for rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism in Norway 1968-97.

Science.gov (United States)

Holte, Hilde H; Tambs, Kristian; Bjerkedal, Tor

2003-01-01

Disability pensioning with musculoskeletal diagnoses increased more than general disability pensioning in Norway during 1968-97. Incidences of disability pensioning for three main musculoskeletal diseases - rheumatoid arthritis, osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism - during the period 1968-97 were assessed. Changes in incidence were related to changes in Norwegian society with respect to prevalence of these diseases, the number of individuals having high probability of disability pensioning for these diseases, the labour market and legal amendments that may have changed the probability of being granted a disability pension among these patients. Data on all new disability pensioners aged 50-66 years registered by the National Insurance Administration during 1968-97 and the total population of Norway excluding disability pensioners were used to calculate annual incidence rates of disability pension for the selected musculoskeletal diagnoses. The incidence of disability pension for soft tissue rheumatism and osteoarthritis increased during the study period, and both increased more than the incidence of disability pension in general. The incidence of disability pension for rheumatoid arthritis decreased when compared with disability pensioning in general. The year an upward or downward trend started is similar for osteoarthritis and soft tissue rheumatism for men and women in the age groups studied. Changes in prevalence of a disease seem to be an important factor in explaining differences in time trends of disability pensioning with different diagnoses. Changes in unemployment, female employment, number of manual workers or the legal system do not appear to be related to the increases in incidence of disability pensioning with musculoskeletal diseases.

Numerical Simulation on Forced Convective Condensation of Steam Upward Flow in a Vertical Pipe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guo-Dong Qiu

2014-05-01

Full Text Available A transient three-dimensional volume of fluid (VOF simulation on condensation of upward flow of wet steam inside a 12 mm i.d. vertical pipe is presented. The effect of gravity and surface tension are taken into account. A uniform wall temperature has been fixed as boundary conditions. The mass flux is 130~6400 kg m−2's−1 and the turbulence inside the vapor phase and liquid phase have been handled by Reynolds stress model (RSM. The vapor quality of fluid is 0~0.4. The numerical simulation results show that, in all the simulation conditions, the bubbly flow, slug flow, churn flow, wispy annular flow, and annular flow are observed; in addition, the results of flow pattern are in good agreement with the regime map from Hewitt and Roberts. The typical velocity field characteristic of each flow pattern and the effect of velocity field on heat transfer of condensation are analyzed, indicating that the slug flow and churn flow have obvious local eddy. However, no obvious eddy is observed in other flow patterns and the streamlines are almost parallel to the flow direction. The simulation results of heat transfer coefficients and frictional pressure drop show good agreement with the correlations from existing literatures.

Spectral analysis of HIV seropositivity among migrant workers entering Kuwait

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Mohammad Hameed GHH

2008-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There is paucity of published data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV seroprevalence among migrant workers entering Middle-East particularly Kuwait. We took advantage of the routine screening of migrants for HIV infection, upon arrival in Kuwait from the areas with high HIV prevalence, to 1 estimate the HIV seroprevalence among migrant workers entering Kuwait and to 2 ascertain if any significant time trend or changes had occurred in HIV seroprevalence among these migrants over the study period. Methods The monthly aggregates of daily number of migrant workers tested and number of HIV seropositive were used to generate the monthly series of proportions of HIV seropositive (per 100,000 migrants over a period of 120 months from January 1, 1997 to December 31, 2006. We carried out spectral analysis of these time series data on monthly proportions (per 100,000 of HIV seropositive migrants. Results Overall HIV seroprevalence (per 100,000 among the migrants was 21 (494/2328582 (95% CI: 19 -23, ranging from 11 (95% CI: 8 – 16 in 2003 to 31 (95% CI: 24 -41 in 1998. There was no discernable pattern in the year-specific proportions of HIV seropositive migrants up to 2003; in subsequent years there was a slight but consistent increase in the proportions of HIV seropositive migrants. However, the Mann-Kendall test showed non-significant (P = 0.741 trend in de-seasonalized data series of proportions of HIV seropositive migrants. The spectral density had a statistically significant (P = 0.03 peak located at a frequency (radians 2.4, which corresponds to a regular cycle of three-month duration in this study. Auto-correlation function did not show any significant seasonality (correlation coefficient at lag 12 = – 0.025, P = 0.575. Conclusion During the study period, overall a low HIV seroprevalence (0.021% was recorded. Towards the end of the study, a slight but non-significant upward trend in the proportions of HIV seropositive

Natural gas 1995: Issues and trends

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NONE

1995-11-01

Natural Gas 1995: Issues and Trends addresses current issues affecting the natural gas industry and markets. Highlights of recent trends include: Natural gas wellhead prices generally declined throughout 1994 and for 1995 averages 22% below the year-earlier level; Seasonal patterns of natural gas production and wellhead prices have been significantly reduced during the past three year; Natural gas production rose 15% from 1985 through 1994, reaching 18.8 trillion cubic feet; Increasing amounts of natural gas have been imported; Since 1985, lower costs of producing and transporting natural gas have benefitted consumers; Consumers may see additional benefits as States examine regulatory changes aimed at increasing efficiency; and, The electric industry is being restructured in a fashion similar to the recent restructuring of the natural gas industry.

A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ficklin, Darren L; Maxwell, Justin T; Gholizadeh, Hamed; Letsinger, Sally L

2015-01-01

We present high spatial-resolution trends of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and selected climate variables from 1979–2013 for the contiguous United States in order to gain an understanding of recent drought trends and their climatic forcings. Based on a spatial grouping analysis, four regions of increasing (upper Midwest, Louisiana, southeastern United States (US), and western US) and decreasing (New England, Pacific Northwest, upper Great Plains, and Ohio River Valley) drought trends based on Mann–Kendall Z values were found. Within these regions, partial correlation and multiple regression for trends in climate variables and PDSI were performed to examine potential climatic controls on these droughts. As expected, there was a US-wide concurrence on drought forcing by precipitation. However, there was correspondence of recent PET trends with recent drought trends in many regions. For regions with an increase in recent droughts, average air temperature was generally the second most important variable after precipitation in determining recent drought trends. Across the regions where recent drought trends are decreasing, there was no clear ranking of climate-variable importance, where trends in average temperature, specific humidity and net radiation all played significant regional roles in determining recent drought trends. Deconstructing the trends in drought show that, while there are regions in the US showing positive and negative trends in drought conditions, the climate forcings for these drought trends are regionally specific. The results of this study allow for the interpretation of the role of the changing hydroclimatic cycle in recent drought trends, which also have implications for the current and impending results of climate change. (letter)