WorldWideScience

Sample records for significant uncertainties exist

  1. Summary of existing uncertainty methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, Horst

    2013-01-01

    A summary of existing and most used uncertainty methods is presented, and the main features are compared. One of these methods is the order statistics method based on Wilks' formula. It is applied in safety research as well as in licensing. This method has been first proposed by GRS for use in deterministic safety analysis, and is now used by many organisations world-wide. Its advantage is that the number of potential uncertain input and output parameters is not limited to a small number. Such a limitation was necessary for the first demonstration of the Code Scaling Applicability Uncertainty Method (CSAU) by the United States Regulatory Commission (USNRC). They did not apply Wilks' formula in their statistical method propagating input uncertainties to obtain the uncertainty of a single output variable, like peak cladding temperature. A Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) was set up in order to limit the number of uncertain input parameters, and consequently, the number of calculations to be performed. Another purpose of such a PIRT process is to identify the most important physical phenomena which a computer code should be suitable to calculate. The validation of the code should be focused on the identified phenomena. Response surfaces are used in some applications replacing the computer code for performing a high number of calculations. The second well known uncertainty method is the Uncertainty Methodology Based on Accuracy Extrapolation (UMAE) and the follow-up method 'Code with the Capability of Internal Assessment of Uncertainty (CIAU)' developed by the University Pisa. Unlike the statistical approaches, the CIAU does compare experimental data with calculation results. It does not consider uncertain input parameters. Therefore, the CIAU is highly dependent on the experimental database. The accuracy gained from the comparison between experimental data and calculated results are extrapolated to obtain the uncertainty of the system code predictions

  2. Do the Uncertainty Relations Really have Crucial Significances for Physics?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dumitru S.

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available It is proved the falsity of idea that the Uncertainty Relations (UR have crucial significances for physics. Additionally one argues for the necesity of an UR-disconnected quantum philosophy.

  3. Survey of Existing Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities for Army Relevant Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-11-27

    first of these introductory sections is an overview of UQ and its various methods. The second of these discusses issues pertaining to the use of UQ...can be readily assessed, as well as the variance or other statistical measures of the distribu- tion of parameters. The uncertainty in the parameters is... statistics of the outputs of these methods, such as the moments of the probability distributions of model outputs. The module does not explicitly support

  4. Neglect Of Parameter Estimation Uncertainty Can Significantly Overestimate Structural Reliability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rózsás Árpád

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Parameter estimation uncertainty is often neglected in reliability studies, i.e. point estimates of distribution parameters are used for representative fractiles, and in probabilistic models. A numerical example examines the effect of this uncertainty on structural reliability using Bayesian statistics. The study reveals that the neglect of parameter estimation uncertainty might lead to an order of magnitude underestimation of failure probability.

  5. Compensation of significant parametric uncertainties using sliding mode online learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnetter, Philipp; Kruger, Thomas

    An augmented nonlinear inverse dynamics (NID) flight control strategy using sliding mode online learning for a small unmanned aircraft system (UAS) is presented. Because parameter identification for this class of aircraft often is not valid throughout the complete flight envelope, aerodynamic parameters used for model based control strategies may show significant deviations. For the concept of feedback linearization this leads to inversion errors that in combination with the distinctive susceptibility of small UAS towards atmospheric turbulence pose a demanding control task for these systems. In this work an adaptive flight control strategy using feedforward neural networks for counteracting such nonlinear effects is augmented with the concept of sliding mode control (SMC). SMC-learning is derived from variable structure theory. It considers a neural network and its training as a control problem. It is shown that by the dynamic calculation of the learning rates, stability can be guaranteed and thus increase the robustness against external disturbances and system failures. With the resulting higher speed of convergence a wide range of simultaneously occurring disturbances can be compensated. The SMC-based flight controller is tested and compared to the standard gradient descent (GD) backpropagation algorithm under the influence of significant model uncertainties and system failures.

  6. Ozone Decline and Recovery: The Significance of Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, N. R. P.

    2017-12-01

    Stratospheric ozone depletion has been one of the leading environmental issues of the last 40 years. It has required research scientists, industry and government to work together to address it successfully. Steps have been taken to reduce the emissions of ozone depleting substances (ODS) under successive revisions of the measures in the 30 year old Montreal Protocol. These have led to a reduction in atmospheric ODS concentrations and so are expected over time to result in a reduction of chemical ozone depletion by ODS. This 'recovery' is being influenced by a number of other factors (natural variability, climate change, other changes in stratospheric chemistry) which makes it hard to provide good, quantitative estimates of the impact of the recent ODS reductions on stratospheric ozone. In this presentation, I discuss how ozone trends were linked to ODS during the period of ozone depletion and during the recent period of 'recovery', i.e. before and after the peak in atmospheric ODS. It is important to be as rigorous as possible in order to give public confidence in the advice provided through the scientific assessment process. We thus need to be as critical of our analyses of the recent data as possible, even though there is a strong expectation and hope from all sides that stratospheric ozone is recovering. I will describe in outline the main challenges that exist now and looking forward.

  7. From risk management to uncertainty management: a significant change in project management

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Gui-jun; ZHANG Yue-song

    2006-01-01

    Starting with the meanings of the terms "risk" and "uncertainty,"" he paper compares uncertainty management with risk management in project management. We bring some doubt to the use of "risk" and "uncertainty" interchangeably in project management and deem their scope, methods, responses, monitoring and controlling should be different too. Illustrations are given covering terminology, description, and treatment from different perspectives of uncertainty management and risk management. Furthermore, the paper retains that project risk management (PRM) processes might be modified to facilitate an uncertainty management perspective,and we support that project uncertainty management (PUM) can enlarge its contribution to improving project management performance, which will result in a significant change in emphasis compared with most risk management.

  8. Interpolation in Time Series: An Introductive Overview of Existing Methods, Their Performance Criteria and Uncertainty Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathieu Lepot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A thorough review has been performed on interpolation methods to fill gaps in time-series, efficiency criteria, and uncertainty quantifications. On one hand, there are numerous available methods: interpolation, regression, autoregressive, machine learning methods, etc. On the other hand, there are many methods and criteria to estimate efficiencies of these methods, but uncertainties on the interpolated values are rarely calculated. Furthermore, while they are estimated according to standard methods, the prediction uncertainty is not taken into account: a discussion is thus presented on the uncertainty estimation of interpolated/extrapolated data. Finally, some suggestions for further research and a new method are proposed.

  9. Optimized Clustering Estimators for BAO Measurements Accounting for Significant Redshift Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ross, Ashley J. [Portsmouth U., ICG; Banik, Nilanjan [Fermilab; Avila, Santiago [Madrid, IFT; Percival, Will J. [Portsmouth U., ICG; Dodelson, Scott [Fermilab; Garcia-Bellido, Juan [Madrid, IFT; Crocce, Martin [ICE, Bellaterra; Elvin-Poole, Jack [Jodrell Bank; Giannantonio, Tommaso [Cambridge U., KICC; Manera, Marc [Cambridge U., DAMTP; Sevilla-Noarbe, Ignacio [Madrid, CIEMAT

    2017-05-15

    We determine an optimized clustering statistic to be used for galaxy samples with significant redshift uncertainty, such as those that rely on photometric redshifts. To do so, we study the BAO information content as a function of the orientation of galaxy clustering modes with respect to their angle to the line-of-sight (LOS). The clustering along the LOS, as observed in a redshift-space with significant redshift uncertainty, has contributions from clustering modes with a range of orientations with respect to the true LOS. For redshift uncertainty $\\sigma_z \\geq 0.02(1+z)$ we find that while the BAO information is confined to transverse clustering modes in the true space, it is spread nearly evenly in the observed space. Thus, measuring clustering in terms of the projected separation (regardless of the LOS) is an efficient and nearly lossless compression of the signal for $\\sigma_z \\geq 0.02(1+z)$. For reduced redshift uncertainty, a more careful consideration is required. We then use more than 1700 realizations of galaxy simulations mimicking the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 sample to validate our analytic results and optimized analysis procedure. We find that using the correlation function binned in projected separation, we can achieve uncertainties that are within 10 per cent of of those predicted by Fisher matrix forecasts. We predict that DES Y1 should achieve a 5 per cent distance measurement using our optimized methods. We expect the results presented here to be important for any future BAO measurements made using photometric redshift data.

  10. Interpolation in Time Series : An Introductive Overview of Existing Methods, Their Performance Criteria and Uncertainty Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lepot, M.J.; Aubin, Jean Baptiste; Clemens, F.H.L.R.

    2017-01-01

    A thorough review has been performed on interpolation methods to fill gaps in time-series, efficiency criteria, and uncertainty quantifications. On one hand, there are numerous available methods: interpolation, regression, autoregressive, machine learning methods, etc. On the other hand, there are

  11. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek C.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L.) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2015-10-01

    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we focus on large-scale hydrologic modeling and analyze the effect of parameter and rainfall data uncertainty on simulated discharge dynamics with the global hydrologic model PCR-GLOBWB. We use three rainfall data products; the CFSR reanalysis, the ERA-Interim reanalysis, and a combined ERA-40 reanalysis and CRU dataset. Parameter uncertainty is derived from Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) using monthly discharge data from five of the largest river systems in the world. Our results demonstrate that the default parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB, derived from global datasets, can be improved by calibrating the model against monthly discharge observations. Yet, it is difficult to find a single parameterization of PCR-GLOBWB that works well for all of the five river basins considered herein and shows consistent performance during both the calibration and evaluation period. Still there may be possibilities for regionalization based on catchment similarities. Our simulations illustrate that parameter uncertainty constitutes only a minor part of predictive uncertainty. Thus, the apparent dichotomy between simulations of global-scale hydrologic behavior and actual data cannot be resolved by simply increasing the model complexity of PCR-GLOBWB and resolving sub-grid processes. Instead, it would be more productive to improve the characterization of global rainfall amounts at spatial resolutions of 0.5° and smaller.

  12. Health significance and statistical uncertainty. The value of P-value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Consonni, Dario; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto

    2017-10-27

    The P-value is widely used as a summary statistics of scientific results. Unfortunately, there is a widespread tendency to dichotomize its value in "P0.05" ("statistically not significant"), with the former implying a "positive" result and the latter a "negative" one. To show the unsuitability of such an approach when evaluating the effects of environmental and occupational risk factors. We provide examples of distorted use of P-value and of the negative consequences for science and public health of such a black-and-white vision. The rigid interpretation of P-value as a dichotomy favors the confusion between health relevance and statistical significance, discourages thoughtful thinking, and distorts attention from what really matters, the health significance. A much better way to express and communicate scientific results involves reporting effect estimates (e.g., risks, risks ratios or risk differences) and their confidence intervals (CI), which summarize and convey both health significance and statistical uncertainty. Unfortunately, many researchers do not usually consider the whole interval of CI but only examine if it includes the null-value, therefore degrading this procedure to the same P-value dichotomy (statistical significance or not). In reporting statistical results of scientific research present effects estimates with their confidence intervals and do not qualify the P-value as "significant" or "not significant".

  13. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  14. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  15. Fungal communities in wheat grain show significant co-existence patterns among species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, M.; Justesen, A. F.; Knorr, K.

    2014-01-01

    identified as ‘core’ OTUs as they were found in all or almost all samples and accounted for almost 99 % of all sequences. The remaining OTUs were only sporadically found and only in small amounts. Cluster and factor analyses showed patterns of co-existence among the core species. Cluster analysis grouped...... the 21 core OTUs into three clusters: cluster 1 consisting of saprotrophs, cluster 2 consisting mainly of yeasts and saprotrophs and cluster 3 consisting of wheat pathogens. Principal component extraction showed that the Fusarium graminearum group was inversely related to OTUs of clusters 1 and 2....

  16. Significance of uncertainties derived from settling tank model structure and parameters on predicting WWTP performance - A global sensitivity analysis study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty derived from one of the process models – such as one-dimensional secondary settling tank (SST) models – can impact the output of the other process models, e.g., biokinetic (ASM1), as well as the integrated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) models. The model structure and parameter...... and from the last aerobic bioreactor upstream to the SST (Garrett/hydraulic method). For model structure uncertainty, two one-dimensional secondary settling tank (1-D SST) models are assessed, including a first-order model (the widely used Takács-model), in which the feasibility of using measured...... uncertainty of settler models can therefore propagate, and add to the uncertainties in prediction of any plant performance criteria. Here we present an assessment of the relative significance of secondary settling model performance in WWTP simulations. We perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) based...

  17. Uncertainty from the choice of microphysics scheme in convection-permitting models significantly exceeds aerosol effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. White

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the hydrometeor development and response to cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC perturbations in convection-permitting model configurations. We present results from a real-data simulation of deep convection in the Congo basin, an idealised supercell case, and a warm-rain large-eddy simulation (LES. In each case we compare two frequently used double-moment bulk microphysics schemes and investigate the response to CDNC perturbations. We find that the variability among the two schemes, including the response to aerosol, differs widely between these cases. In all cases, differences in the simulated cloud morphology and precipitation are found to be significantly greater between the microphysics schemes than due to CDNC perturbations within each scheme. Further, we show that the response of the hydrometeors to CDNC perturbations differs strongly not only between microphysics schemes, but the inter-scheme variability also differs between cases of convection. Sensitivity tests show that the representation of autoconversion is the dominant factor that drives differences in rain production between the microphysics schemes in the idealised precipitating shallow cumulus case and in a subregion of the Congo basin simulations dominated by liquid-phase processes. In this region, rain mass is also shown to be relatively insensitive to the radiative effects of an overlying layer of ice-phase cloud. The conversion of cloud ice to snow is the process responsible for differences in cold cloud bias between the schemes in the Congo. In the idealised supercell case, thermodynamic impacts on the storm system using different microphysics parameterisations can equal those due to aerosol effects. These results highlight the large uncertainty in cloud and precipitation responses to aerosol in convection-permitting simulations and have important implications not only for process studies of aerosol–convection interaction, but also for

  18. Identifying significant uncertainties in thermally dependent processes for repository performance analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gansemer, J.D.; Lamont, A.

    1994-01-01

    In order to study the performance of the potential Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository, scientific investigations are being conducted to reduce the uncertainty about process models and system parameters. This paper is intended to demonstrate a method for determining a strategy for the cost effective management of these investigations. It is not meant to be a complete study of all processes and interactions, but does outline a method which can be applied to more in-depth investigations

  19. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data erros

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sperna Weiland, F.; Vrugt, J.A.; Beek, van P.H.; Weerts, A.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2015-01-01

    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

  20. Significant uncertainty in global scale hydrological modeling from precipitation data errors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weiland, Frederiek C. Sperna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; van Beek, Rens (L. ) P. H.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2015-01-01

    In the past decades significant progress has been made in the fitting of hydrologic models to data. Most of this work has focused on simple, CPU-efficient, lumped hydrologic models using discharge, water table depth, soil moisture, or tracer data from relatively small river basins. In this paper, we

  1. On the need for a time- and location-dependent estimation of the NDSI threshold value for reducing existing uncertainties in snow cover maps at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Härer, Stefan; Bernhardt, Matthias; Siebers, Matthias; Schulz, Karsten

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of current snow cover extent is essential for characterizing energy and moisture fluxes at the Earth's surface. The snow-covered area (SCA) is often estimated by using optical satellite information in combination with the normalized-difference snow index (NDSI). The NDSI thereby uses a threshold for the definition if a satellite pixel is assumed to be snow covered or snow free. The spatiotemporal representativeness of the standard threshold of 0.4 is however questionable at the local scale. Here, we use local snow cover maps derived from ground-based photography to continuously calibrate the NDSI threshold values (NDSIthr) of Landsat satellite images at two European mountain sites of the period from 2010 to 2015. The Research Catchment Zugspitzplatt (RCZ, Germany) and Vernagtferner area (VF, Austria) are both located within a single Landsat scene. Nevertheless, the long-term analysis of the NDSIthr demonstrated that the NDSIthr at these sites are not correlated (r = 0.17) and different than the standard threshold of 0.4. For further comparison, a dynamic and locally optimized NDSI threshold was used as well as another locally optimized literature threshold value (0.7). It was shown that large uncertainties in the prediction of the SCA of up to 24.1 % exist in satellite snow cover maps in cases where the standard threshold of 0.4 is used, but a newly developed calibrated quadratic polynomial model which accounts for seasonal threshold dynamics can reduce this error. The model minimizes the SCA uncertainties at the calibration site VF by 50 % in the evaluation period and was also able to improve the results at RCZ in a significant way. Additionally, a scaling experiment shows that the positive effect of a locally adapted threshold diminishes using a pixel size of 500 m or larger, underlining the general applicability of the standard threshold at larger scales.

  2. An adaptive-binning method for generating constant-uncertainty/constant-significance light curves with Fermi-LAT data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lott, B.; Escande, L.; Larsson, S.; Ballet, J.

    2012-01-01

    Here, we present a method enabling the creation of constant-uncertainty/constant-significance light curves with the data of the Fermi-Large Area Telescope (LAT). The adaptive-binning method enables more information to be encapsulated within the light curve than with the fixed-binning method. Although primarily developed for blazar studies, it can be applied to any sources. Furthermore, this method allows the starting and ending times of each interval to be calculated in a simple and quick way during a first step. The reported mean flux and spectral index (assuming the spectrum is a power-law distribution) in the interval are calculated via the standard LAT analysis during a second step. In the absence of major caveats associated with this method Monte-Carlo simulations have been established. We present the performance of this method in determining duty cycles as well as power-density spectra relative to the traditional fixed-binning method.

  3. Treatment of uncertainties in the existence of free berths with risk analysis techniques. Establishment of policies in port of Cadiz (SPAIN)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Awad Nuñez, S.; Camarero Orive, A.; Romero Sanchez-Brunete, M.; Camarero Orive, A.; Gonzalez Cancelas, N.

    2016-07-01

    This research discusses the challenges involved in the treatment of uncertainties in the existence of free berths during the arrival of cruise ships at seaports. Pursuing this goal, a three-step methodology is adopted: 1) Identifying risk sources and critical risk variables and how they are related; 2) Fitting the Probability Distribution Functions that best represent the behaviour of each critical risk variable; and 3) Simulating the probability of a ship having to wait because there are no free berths using a technique that combines statistical concepts (random sampling) with the ability of computers to generate pseudo-random numbers and automate estimations of the values of the set of critical risk variables. The innovative use of risk analysis techniques in this field allows the establishment of policies to improve the planning and management of port infrastructure, for example, deciding when it is necessary to work to increase the number of berths. As a case of study, we applied this methodology to study whether the enlargement of the wharf in the port of Cadiz (Spain) is necessary right now considering the number of cruise ships that have arrived at the port in the past three years, their date and hour of arrival, their length and draught, the duration of their stay in port and their waiting time before being able to enter the port. This action would require moving logistics activities to a new terminal, but would bring to the city the opportunity to rethink the seafront, introducing new cruiser links with the city centre and developing a better seaport-city integration. (Author)

  4. The Significance of an Excess in a Counting Experiment: Assessing the Impact of Systematic Uncertainties and the Case with a Gaussian Background

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vianello, Giacomo

    2018-05-01

    Several experiments in high-energy physics and astrophysics can be treated as on/off measurements, where an observation potentially containing a new source or effect (“on” measurement) is contrasted with a background-only observation free of the effect (“off” measurement). In counting experiments, the significance of the new source or effect can be estimated with a widely used formula from Li & Ma, which assumes that both measurements are Poisson random variables. In this paper we study three other cases: (i) the ideal case where the background measurement has no uncertainty, which can be used to study the maximum sensitivity that an instrument can achieve, (ii) the case where the background estimate b in the off measurement has an additional systematic uncertainty, and (iii) the case where b is a Gaussian random variable instead of a Poisson random variable. The latter case applies when b comes from a model fitted on archival or ancillary data, or from the interpolation of a function fitted on data surrounding the candidate new source/effect. Practitioners typically use a formula that is only valid when b is large and when its uncertainty is very small, while we derive a general formula that can be applied in all regimes. We also develop simple methods that can be used to assess how much an estimate of significance is sensitive to systematic uncertainties on the efficiency or on the background. Examples of applications include the detection of short gamma-ray bursts and of new X-ray or γ-ray sources. All the techniques presented in this paper are made available in a Python code that is ready to use.

  5. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  6. Intracavitary brachytherapy significantly enhances local control of early T-stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma: the existence of a dose-tumor-control relationship above conventional tumoricidal dose

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teo, Peter Man Lung; Leung, Sing Fai; Lee, Wai Yee; Zee, Benny

    2000-01-01

    the chronic radiation complications, with the exception of chronic radiation nasopharyngeal ulceration/necrosis which occurred in 10 patients in Group A and 1 patient in Group B. Headache (n = 4) and foul smell (n = 8) consequential to ulceration/necrosis were mild and manageable by conservative means. A significant dose-tumor-control relationship existed when local failure was studied as a function of the total physical dose or the total biological equivalent dose (linear quadratic equation, α/β = 10) uncorrected for tumor repopulation during the time course of the radiotherapy. Conclusions: Supplementing ERT which delivered tumoricidal dose (uncorrected BED-10 ≥75 Gy), ICT significantly enhanced ultimate local control and avoided the necessity for morbid salvage treatments in early T-stage (T1/T2 nasal infiltration) NPC. The slight increase in chronic radiation ulceration/necrosis after ICT was acceptable with mild and manageable symptoms. Other late complications were not increased. A significant dose-tumor-control relationship exists above the conventional tumoricidal dose level

  7. Feasibility study and uncertainties in the validation of an existing safety-related control circuit with the ISO 13849-1:2006 design standard

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jocelyn, Sabrina; Baudoin, James; Chinniah, Yuvin; Charpentier, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    In industry, machine users and people who modify or integrate equipment often have to evaluate the safety level of a safety-related control circuit that they have not necessarily designed. The modifications or integrations may involve work to make an existing machine that does not comply with normative or regulatory specifications safe. However, how can a circuit performing a safety function be validated a posteriori? Is the validation exercise feasible? What are the difficulties and limitations of such a procedure? The aim of this article is to answer these questions by presenting a validation study of a safety function of an existing machine. A plastic injection molding machine is used for this study, as well as standard ISO 13849-1:2006. Validation consists of performing an a posteriori (post-design) estimation of the performance level of the safety function. The procedure is studied for two contexts of use of the machine: in industry, and in laboratory. The calculations required by the ISO standard were done using Excel, followed by SIStema software. It is shown that, based on the context of use, the estimated performance level was different for the same safety-related circuit. The variability in the results is explained by the assumptions made by the person undertaking the validation without the involvement of the machine designer. - Highlights: • Validation of the performance level of a safety function is undertaken. • An injection molding machine and ISO 13849-1:2006 standard are used for the procedure. • The procedure is undertaken for two contexts of use of the machine. • In this study, the performance level depends on the context of use. • The assumptions made throughout the study partially explain this difference

  8. Justification for recommended uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.

    2007-01-01

    The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1

  9. Cladodes, leaf-like organs in Asparagus, show the significance of co-option of pre-existing genetic regulatory circuit for morphological diversity of plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakayama, Hokuto; Yamaguchi, Takahiro; Tsukaya, Hirokazu

    2012-08-01

    Plants in the genus Asparagus have determinate leaf-like organs called cladodes in the position of leaf axils. Because of their leaf-like morphology, axillary position, and morphological variation, it has been unclear how this unusual organ has evolved and diversified. In the previous study, we have shown that cladodes in the genus Asparagus are modified axillary shoots and proposed a model that cladodes have arisen by co-option and deployment of genetic regulatory circuit (GRC) involved in leaf development. Moreover, we proposed that the alteration of the expression pattern of genes involved in establishment of adaxial/abaxial polarity has led to the morphological diversification from leaf-like to rod-like form of cladodes in the genus. Thus, these results indicated that the co-option and alteration of pre-existing GRC play an important role in acquisition and subsequent morphological diversification. Here, we present data of further expression analysis of A. asparagoides. The results suggested that only a part of the GRC involved in leaf development appears to have been co-opted into cladode development. Based on our study and several examples of the morphological diversification, we briefly discuss the importance of co-option of pre-existing GRC and its genetic modularity in the morphological diversity of plants during evolution.

  10. Optimization of refinery operations when uncertainty exists: Algeria's case; Optimisation des operations du raffinage en presence d'incertitudes: Cas de l'Algerie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benyoucef, Abderrezak; Lantz, Frederic

    2010-09-15

    The objective of this article is to analyze the development of Algeria refinery industry when uncertainty exists, from a dynamic linear programming model. Because of the different market conditions volatility, many parameters must be able to be considered as uncertain. In our study, we treat mainly uncertainties of petroleum products demand. The model gives production levels, the units market rate and the exterior exchange of products at horizons 2030. It allows to appreciate the impact of volatility on this industry's development. [French] L'objectif de cet article est d'analyser le developpement de l'industrie algerienne du raffinage en presence d'incertitudes, a partir d'un modele de programmation lineaire dynamique. En raison de la volatilite des differentes conditions du marche, de nombreux parametres doivent pouvoir etre consideres comme incertains. Dans notre etude, nous traitons en particulier des incertitudes sur la demande des produits petroliers. Le modele fournit les niveaux de production, le taux de marche des unites et les echanges exterieurs de produits a l'horizon 2030. Il permet ainsi d'apprecier l'impact de la volatilite sur le developpement de cette industrie.

  11. Response to Letter Regarding the Louisiana Department of Environmental Protection's Position on the PSD Significant Emission Level for ODS at Existing Major Sources

    Science.gov (United States)

    This document may be of assistance in applying the New Source Review (NSR) air permitting regulations including the Prevention of Significant Deterioration (PSD) requirements. This document is part of the NSR Policy and Guidance Database. Some documents in the database are a scanned or retyped version of a paper photocopy of the original. Although we have taken considerable effort to quality assure the documents, some may contain typographical errors. Contact the office that issued the document if you need a copy of the original.

  12. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  13. Uncertainty analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marivoet, J.; Saltelli, A.; Cadelli, N.

    1987-01-01

    The origin of the uncertainty affecting Performance Assessments, as well as their propagation to dose and risk results is discussed. The analysis is focused essentially on the uncertainties introduced by the input parameters, the values of which may range over some orders of magnitude and may be given as probability distribution function. The paper briefly reviews the existing sampling techniques used for Monte Carlo simulations and the methods for characterizing the output curves, determining their convergence and confidence limits. Annual doses, expectation values of the doses and risks are computed for a particular case of a possible repository in clay, in order to illustrate the significance of such output characteristics as the mean, the logarithmic mean and the median as well as their ratios. The report concludes that provisionally, due to its better robustness, such estimation as the 90th percentile may be substituted to the arithmetic mean for comparison of the estimated doses with acceptance criteria. In any case, the results obtained through Uncertainty Analyses must be interpreted with caution as long as input data distribution functions are not derived from experiments reasonably reproducing the situation in a well characterized repository and site

  14. Application of a Novel Dose-Uncertainty Model for Dose-Uncertainty Analysis in Prostate Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Hosang; Palta, Jatinder R.; Kim, You-Hyun; Kim, Siyong

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To analyze dose uncertainty using a previously published dose-uncertainty model, and to assess potential dosimetric risks existing in prostate intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT). Methods and Materials: The dose-uncertainty model provides a three-dimensional (3D) dose-uncertainty distribution in a given confidence level. For 8 retrospectively selected patients, dose-uncertainty maps were constructed using the dose-uncertainty model at the 95% CL. In addition to uncertainties inherent to the radiation treatment planning system, four scenarios of spatial errors were considered: machine only (S1), S1 + intrafraction, S1 + interfraction, and S1 + both intrafraction and interfraction errors. To evaluate the potential risks of the IMRT plans, three dose-uncertainty-based plan evaluation tools were introduced: confidence-weighted dose-volume histogram, confidence-weighted dose distribution, and dose-uncertainty-volume histogram. Results: Dose uncertainty caused by interfraction setup error was more significant than that of intrafraction motion error. The maximum dose uncertainty (95% confidence) of the clinical target volume (CTV) was smaller than 5% of the prescribed dose in all but two cases (13.9% and 10.2%). The dose uncertainty for 95% of the CTV volume ranged from 1.3% to 2.9% of the prescribed dose. Conclusions: The dose uncertainty in prostate IMRT could be evaluated using the dose-uncertainty model. Prostate IMRT plans satisfying the same plan objectives could generate a significantly different dose uncertainty because a complex interplay of many uncertainty sources. The uncertainty-based plan evaluation contributes to generating reliable and error-resistant treatment plans.

  15. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

  16. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  17. Modeling, Analysis, and Control of a Hypersonic Vehicle with Significant Aero-Thermo-Elastic-Propulsion Interactions: Elastic, Thermal and Mass Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khatri, Jaidev

    This thesis examines themodeling, analysis, and control system design issues for scramjet powered hypersonic vehicles. A nonlinear three degrees of freedom longitudinal model which includes aero-propulsion-elasticity effects was used for all analyses. This model is based upon classical compressible flow and Euler-Bernouli structural concepts. Higher fidelity computational fluid dynamics and finite element methods are needed for more precise intermediate and final evaluations. The methods presented within this thesis were shown to be useful for guiding initial control relevant design. The model was used to examine the vehicle's static and dynamic characteristics over the vehicle's trimmable region. The vehicle has significant longitudinal coupling between the fuel equivalency ratio (FER) and the flight path angle (FPA). For control system design, a two-input two-output plant (FER - elevator to speed-FPA) with 11 states (including 3 flexible modes) was used. Velocity, FPA, and pitch were assumed to be available for feedback. Aerodynamic heat modeling and design for the assumed TPS was incorporated to original Bolender's model to study the change in static and dynamic properties. De-centralized control stability, feasibility and limitations issues were dealt with the change in TPS elasticity, mass and physical dimension. The impact of elasticity due to TPS mass, TPS physical dimension as well as prolonged heating was also analyzed to understand performance limitations of de-centralized control designed for nominal model.

  18. Illustrative uncertainty visualization of DTI fiber pathways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brecheisen, R.; Platel, B.; Haar Romeny, B.M. Ter; Vilanova, A.

    2013-01-01

    Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI) and fiber tracking provide unique insight into the 3D structure of fibrous tissues in the brain. However, the output of fiber tracking contains a significant amount of uncertainty accumulated in the various steps of the processing pipeline. Existing DTI visualization

  19. Conditional uncertainty principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

    2018-04-01

    We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

  20. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  1. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  2. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig

  3. BEPU methods and combining of uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.; Mavko, B.

    2004-01-01

    After approval of the revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling system (ECCS) performance in 1988 there has been significant interest in the development of codes and methodologies for best-estimate loss-of-coolant accident (LOCAs) analyses. The Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation method was developed and demonstrated for large-break (LB) LOCA in a pressurized water reactor. Later several new best estimate plus uncertainty methods (BEPUs) were developed in the world. The purpose of the paper is to identify and compare the statistical approaches of BEPU methods and present their important plant and licensing applications. The study showed that uncertainty analysis with random sampling of input parameters and the use of order statistics for desired tolerance limits of output parameters is today commonly accepted approach. The existing BEPU methods seems mature enough while the future research may be focused on the codes with internal assessment of uncertainty. (author)

  4. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    magnitude and bias, and to test how uncertainty depended on the density of the raingauge network and flow gauging station characteristics. The uncertainties were sometimes large (i.e. typical intervals of ±10-40% relative uncertainty) and highly variable between signatures. Uncertainty in the mean discharge was around ±10% for both catchments, while signatures describing the flow variability had much higher uncertainties in the Mahurangi where there was a fast rainfall-runoff response and greater high-flow rating uncertainty. Event and total runoff ratios had uncertainties from ±10% to ±15% depending on the number of rain gauges used; precipitation uncertainty was related to interpolation rather than point uncertainty. Uncertainty distributions in these signatures were skewed, and meant that differences in signature values between these catchments were often not significant. We hope that this study encourages others to use signatures in a way that is robust to data uncertainty.

  5. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  6. Uncertainty in Seismic Capacity of Masonry Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Augenti

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Seismic assessment of masonry structures is plagued by both inherent randomness and model uncertainty. The former is referred to as aleatory uncertainty, the latter as epistemic uncertainty because it depends on the knowledge level. Pioneering studies on reinforced concrete buildings have revealed a significant influence of modeling parameters on seismic vulnerability. However, confidence in mechanical properties of existing masonry buildings is much lower than in the case of reinforcing steel and concrete. This paper is aimed at assessing whether and how uncertainty propagates from material properties to seismic capacity of an entire masonry structure. A typical two-story unreinforced masonry building is analyzed. Based on previous statistical characterization of mechanical properties of existing masonry types, the following random variables have been considered in this study: unit weight, uniaxial compressive strength, shear strength at zero confining stress, Young’s modulus, shear modulus, and available ductility in shear. Probability density functions were implemented to generate a significant number of realizations and static pushover analysis of the case-study building was performed for each vector of realizations, load combination and lateral load pattern. Analysis results show a large dispersion in displacement capacity and lower dispersion in spectral acceleration capacity. This can directly affect decision-making because both design and retrofit solutions depend on seismic capacity predictions. Therefore, engineering judgment should always be used when assessing structural safety of existing masonry constructions against design earthquakes, based on a series of seismic analyses under uncertain parameters.

  7. Oil price uncertainty in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2009-11-15

    Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)

  8. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.

    2016-01-01

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  9. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib

    2016-01-05

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  10. Uncertainties and severe-accident management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kastenberg, W.E.

    1991-01-01

    Severe-accident management can be defined as the use of existing and or alternative resources, systems, and actions to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. Together with risk management (e.g., changes in plant operation and/or addition of equipment) and emergency planning (off-site actions), accident management provides an extension of the defense-indepth safety philosophy for severe accidents. A significant number of probabilistic safety assessments have been completed, which yield the principal plant vulnerabilities, and can be categorized as (a) dominant sequences with respect to core-melt frequency, (b) dominant sequences with respect to various risk measures, (c) dominant threats that challenge safety functions, and (d) dominant threats with respect to failure of safety systems. Severe-accident management strategies can be generically classified as (a) use of alternative resources, (b) use of alternative equipment, and (c) use of alternative actions. For each sequence/threat and each combination of strategy, there may be several options available to the operator. Each strategy/option involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. These include (a) uncertainty in key phenomena, (b) uncertainty in operator behavior, (c) uncertainty in system availability and behavior, and (d) uncertainty in information availability (i.e., instrumentation). This paper focuses on phenomenological uncertainties associated with severe-accident management strategies

  11. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  12. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  13. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  14. Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy

    2010-05-01

    Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.

  15. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  16. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  17. Uncertainties in risk assessment and decision making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Starzec, Peter; Purucker, Tom; Stewart, Robert

    2008-02-01

    The general concept for risk assessment in accordance with the Swedish model for contaminated soil implies that the toxicological reference value for a given receptor is first back-calculated to a corresponding concentration of a compound in soil and (if applicable) then modified with respect to e.g. background levels, acute toxicity, and factor of safety. This result in a guideline value that is subsequently compared to the observed concentration levels. Many sources of uncertainty exist when assessing whether the risk for a receptor is significant or not. In this study, the uncertainty aspects have been addressed from three standpoints: 1. Uncertainty in the comparison between the level of contamination (source) and a given risk criterion (e.g. a guideline value) and possible implications on subsequent decisions. This type of uncertainty is considered to be most important in situations where a contaminant is expected to be spatially heterogeneous without any tendency to form isolated clusters (hotspots) that can be easily delineated, i.e. where mean values are appropriate to compare to the risk criterion. 2. Uncertainty in spatial distribution of a contaminant. Spatial uncertainty should be accounted for when hotspots are to be delineated and the volume of soil contaminated with levels above a stated decision criterion has to be assessed (quantified). 3. Uncertainty in an ecological exposure model with regard to the moving pattern of a receptor in relation to spatial distribution of contaminant in question. The study points out that the choice of methodology to characterize the relation between contaminant concentration and a pre-defined risk criterion is governed by a conceptual perception of the contaminant's spatial distribution and also depends on the structure of collected data (observations). How uncertainty in transition from contaminant concentration into risk criterion can be quantified was demonstrated by applying hypothesis tests and the concept of

  18. Improved Monte Carlo Method for PSA Uncertainty Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Jongsoo

    2016-01-01

    The treatment of uncertainty is an important issue for regulatory decisions. Uncertainties exist from knowledge limitations. A probabilistic approach has exposed some of these limitations and provided a framework to assess their significance and assist in developing a strategy to accommodate them in the regulatory process. The uncertainty analysis (UA) is usually based on the Monte Carlo method. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo UA approach to calculate the mean risk metrics accounting for the SOKC between basic events (including CCFs) using efficient random number generators and to meet Capability Category III of the ASME/ANS PRA standard. Audit calculation is needed in PSA regulatory reviews of uncertainty analysis results submitted for licensing. The proposed Monte Carlo UA approach provides a high degree of confidence in PSA reviews. All PSA needs accounting for the SOKC between event probabilities to meet the ASME/ANS PRA standard

  19. Improved Monte Carlo Method for PSA Uncertainty Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Jongsoo [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    The treatment of uncertainty is an important issue for regulatory decisions. Uncertainties exist from knowledge limitations. A probabilistic approach has exposed some of these limitations and provided a framework to assess their significance and assist in developing a strategy to accommodate them in the regulatory process. The uncertainty analysis (UA) is usually based on the Monte Carlo method. This paper proposes a Monte Carlo UA approach to calculate the mean risk metrics accounting for the SOKC between basic events (including CCFs) using efficient random number generators and to meet Capability Category III of the ASME/ANS PRA standard. Audit calculation is needed in PSA regulatory reviews of uncertainty analysis results submitted for licensing. The proposed Monte Carlo UA approach provides a high degree of confidence in PSA reviews. All PSA needs accounting for the SOKC between event probabilities to meet the ASME/ANS PRA standard.

  20. Stereo-particle image velocimetry uncertainty quantification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhattacharya, Sayantan; Vlachos, Pavlos P; Charonko, John J

    2017-01-01

    Particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements are subject to multiple elemental error sources and thus estimating overall measurement uncertainty is challenging. Recent advances have led to a posteriori uncertainty estimation methods for planar two-component PIV. However, no complete methodology exists for uncertainty quantification in stereo PIV. In the current work, a comprehensive framework is presented to quantify the uncertainty stemming from stereo registration error and combine it with the underlying planar velocity uncertainties. The disparity in particle locations of the dewarped images is used to estimate the positional uncertainty of the world coordinate system, which is then propagated to the uncertainty in the calibration mapping function coefficients. Next, the calibration uncertainty is combined with the planar uncertainty fields of the individual cameras through an uncertainty propagation equation and uncertainty estimates are obtained for all three velocity components. The methodology was tested with synthetic stereo PIV data for different light sheet thicknesses, with and without registration error, and also validated with an experimental vortex ring case from 2014 PIV challenge. Thorough sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the relative impact of the various parameters to the overall uncertainty. The results suggest that in absence of any disparity, the stereo PIV uncertainty prediction method is more sensitive to the planar uncertainty estimates than to the angle uncertainty, although the latter is not negligible for non-zero disparity. Overall the presented uncertainty quantification framework showed excellent agreement between the error and uncertainty RMS values for both the synthetic and the experimental data and demonstrated reliable uncertainty prediction coverage. This stereo PIV uncertainty quantification framework provides the first comprehensive treatment on the subject and potentially lays foundations applicable to volumetric

  1. A novel dose uncertainty model and its application for dose verification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jin Hosang; Chung Heetaek; Liu Chihray; Palta, Jatinder; Suh, Tae-Suk; Kim, Siyong

    2005-01-01

    Based on statistical approach, a novel dose uncertainty model was introduced considering both nonspatial and spatial dose deviations. Non-space-oriented uncertainty is mainly caused by dosimetric uncertainties, and space-oriented dose uncertainty is the uncertainty caused by all spatial displacements. Assuming these two parts are independent, dose difference between measurement and calculation is a linear combination of nonspatial and spatial dose uncertainties. Two assumptions were made: (1) the relative standard deviation of nonspatial dose uncertainty is inversely proportional to the dose standard deviation σ, and (2) the spatial dose uncertainty is proportional to the gradient of dose. The total dose uncertainty is a quadratic sum of the nonspatial and spatial uncertainties. The uncertainty model provides the tolerance dose bound for comparison between calculation and measurement. In the statistical uncertainty model based on a Gaussian distribution, a confidence level of 3σ theoretically confines 99.74% of measurements within the bound. By setting the confidence limit, the tolerance bound for dose comparison can be made analogous to that of existing dose comparison methods (e.g., a composite distribution analysis, a γ test, a χ evaluation, and a normalized agreement test method). However, the model considers the inherent dose uncertainty characteristics of the test points by taking into account the space-specific history of dose accumulation, while the previous methods apply a single tolerance criterion to the points, although dose uncertainty at each point is significantly different from others. Three types of one-dimensional test dose distributions (a single large field, a composite flat field made by two identical beams, and three-beam intensity-modulated fields) were made to verify the robustness of the model. For each test distribution, the dose bound predicted by the uncertainty model was compared with simulated measurements. The simulated

  2. Uncertainty Propagation in Hypersonic Vehicle Aerothermoelastic Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamorte, Nicolas Etienne

    Hypersonic vehicles face a challenging flight environment. The aerothermoelastic analysis of its components requires numerous simplifying approximations. Identifying and quantifying the effect of uncertainties pushes the limits of the existing deterministic models, and is pursued in this work. An uncertainty quantification framework is used to propagate the effects of identified uncertainties on the stability margins and performance of the different systems considered. First, the aeroelastic stability of a typical section representative of a control surface on a hypersonic vehicle is examined. Variability in the uncoupled natural frequencies of the system is modeled to mimic the effect of aerodynamic heating. Next, the stability of an aerodynamically heated panel representing a component of the skin of a generic hypersonic vehicle is considered. Uncertainty in the location of transition from laminar to turbulent flow and the heat flux prediction is quantified using CFD. In both cases significant reductions of the stability margins are observed. A loosely coupled airframe--integrated scramjet engine is considered next. The elongated body and cowl of the engine flow path are subject to harsh aerothermodynamic loading which causes it to deform. Uncertainty associated with deformation prediction is propagated to the engine performance analysis. The cowl deformation is the main contributor to the sensitivity of the propulsion system performance. Finally, a framework for aerothermoelastic stability boundary calculation for hypersonic vehicles using CFD is developed. The usage of CFD enables one to consider different turbulence conditions, laminar or turbulent, and different models of the air mixture, in particular real gas model which accounts for dissociation of molecules at high temperature. The system is found to be sensitive to turbulence modeling as well as the location of the transition from laminar to turbulent flow. Real gas effects play a minor role in the

  3. A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Bowman, Gary; Hughes, Martin

    2017-10-11

    A better understanding of the uncertainty that exists in models used for seismic risk assessment is critical to improving risk-based decisions pertaining to earthquake safety. Current models estimating the probability of collapse of a building do not consider comprehensively the nature and impact of uncertainty. This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over- or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different levels of seismicity, and with different vulnerabilities. A global sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the significance of uncertain variables. Two key outcomes are (1) that the uncertainty in ground-motion conversion equations has the largest effect on the uncertainty in the calculation of annual collapse probability; and (2) the vulnerability of a building appears to have an effect on the range of annual collapse probabilities produced, i.e., the level of uncertainty in the estimate of annual collapse probability, with less vulnerable buildings having a smaller uncertainty. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  5. Risk uncertainty analysis methods for NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.

    1987-01-01

    Evaluation and display of risk uncertainties for NUREG-1150 constitute a principal focus of the Severe Accident Risk Rebaselining/Risk Reduction Program (SARRP). Some of the principal objectives of the uncertainty evaluation are: (1) to provide a quantitative estimate that reflects, for those areas considered, a credible and realistic range of uncertainty in risk; (2) to rank the various sources of uncertainty with respect to their importance for various measures of risk; and (3) to characterize the state of understanding of each aspect of the risk assessment for which major uncertainties exist. This paper describes the methods developed to fulfill these objectives

  6. Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Coppersmith

    2001-01-01

    performance difficult. Likewise, a demonstration of the magnitude of conservatisms in the dose estimates that result from conservative inputs is difficult to determine. To respond to these issues, the DOE explored the significance of uncertainties and the magnitude of conservatisms in the SSPA Volumes 1 and 2 (BSC 2001 [DIRS 155950]; BSC 2001 [DIRS 154659]). The three main goals of this report are: (1) To briefly summarize and consolidate the discussion of much of the work that has been done over the past few years to evaluate, clarify, and improve the representation of uncertainties in the TSPA and performance projections for a potential repository. This report does not contain any new analyses of those uncertainties, but it summarizes in one place the main findings of that work. (2) To develop a strategy for how uncertainties may be handled in the TSPA and supporting analyses and models to support a License Application, should the site be recommended. It should be noted that the strategy outlined in this report is based on current information available to DOE. The strategy may be modified pending receipt of additional pertinent information, such as the Yucca Mountain Review Plan. (3) To discuss issues related to communication about uncertainties, and propose some approaches the DOE may use in the future to improve how it communicates uncertainty in its models and performance assessments to decision-makers and to technical audiences

  7. Treatment of uncertainty in low-level waste performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozak, M.W.; Olague, N.E.; Gallegos, D.P.; Rao, R.R.

    1991-01-01

    Uncertainties arise from a number of different sources in low-level waste performance assessment. In this paper the types of uncertainty are reviewed, and existing methods for quantifying and reducing each type of uncertainty are discussed. These approaches are examined in the context of the current low-level radioactive waste regulatory performance objectives, which are deterministic. The types of uncertainty discussed in this paper are model uncertainty, uncertainty about future conditions, and parameter uncertainty. The advantages and disadvantages of available methods for addressing uncertainty in low-level waste performance assessment are presented. 25 refs

  8. Investment, regulation, and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose

    2014-01-01

    As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases.   This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745

  9. Uncertainty and measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, P.T.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

  10. Does bioethics exist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, L

    2009-12-01

    Bioethicists disagree over methods, theories, decision-making guides, case analyses and public policies. Thirty years ago, the thinking of many scholars coalesced around a principlist approach to bioethics. That mid-level mode of moral reasoning is now one of many approaches to moral deliberation. Significant variation in contemporary approaches to the study of ethical issues related to medicine, biotechnology and health care raises the question of whether bioethics exists as widely shared method, theory, normative framework or mode of moral reasoning.

  11. Entropic uncertainty relations-a survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wehner, Stephanie; Winter, Andreas

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainty relations play a central role in quantum mechanics. Entropic uncertainty relations in particular have gained significant importance within quantum information, providing the foundation for the security of many quantum cryptographic protocols. Yet, little is known about entropic uncertainty relations with more than two measurement settings. In the present survey, we review known results and open questions.

  12. Characterizing Epistemic Uncertainty for Launch Vehicle Designs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novack, Steven D.; Rogers, Jim; Hark, Frank; Al Hassan, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) has the task of estimating the aleatory (randomness) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) uncertainty of launch vehicle loss of mission and crew risk and communicating the results. Launch vehicles are complex engineered systems designed with sophisticated subsystems that are built to work together to accomplish mission success. Some of these systems or subsystems are in the form of heritage equipment, while some have never been previously launched. For these cases, characterizing the epistemic uncertainty is of foremost importance, and it is anticipated that the epistemic uncertainty of a modified launch vehicle design versus a design of well understood heritage equipment would be greater. For reasons that will be discussed, standard uncertainty propagation methods using Monte Carlo simulation produce counter intuitive results and significantly underestimate epistemic uncertainty for launch vehicle models. Furthermore, standard PRA methods such as Uncertainty-Importance analyses used to identify components that are significant contributors to uncertainty are rendered obsolete since sensitivity to uncertainty changes are not reflected in propagation of uncertainty using Monte Carlo methods.This paper provides a basis of the uncertainty underestimation for complex systems and especially, due to nuances of launch vehicle logic, for launch vehicles. It then suggests several alternative methods for estimating uncertainty and provides examples of estimation results. Lastly, the paper shows how to implement an Uncertainty-Importance analysis using one alternative approach, describes the results, and suggests ways to reduce epistemic uncertainty by focusing on additional data or testing of selected components.

  13. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-12-01

    This paper presents a deterministic uncertainty analysis (DUA) method for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs compared to conventional statistical analysis. The method is based upon the availability of derivative and sensitivity data such as that calculated using the well known direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques. Formation of response surfaces using derivative data and the propagation of input probability distributions are discussed relative to their role in the DUA method. A sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. Propogation of uncertainties by the DUA method is compared for ten cases in which the number of reference model runs was varied from one to ten. The DUA method gives a more accurate representation of the true cumulative distribution of the flow rate based upon as few as two model executions compared to fifty model executions using a statistical approach. 16 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  14. Framework for managing uncertainty in property projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reymen, I.M.M.J.; Dewulf, G.P.M.R.; Blokpoel, S.B.

    2008-01-01

    A primary task of property development (or real estate development, RED) is making assessments and managing risks and uncertainties. Property managers cope with a wide range of uncertainties, particularly in the early project phases. Although the existing literature addresses the management of

  15. Predictive uncertainty in auditory sequence processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Pearce, Marcus T

    2014-01-01

    in a melodic sequence (inferred uncertainty). Finally, we simulate listeners' perception of expectedness and uncertainty using computational models of auditory expectation. A detailed model comparison indicates which model parameters maximize fit to the data and how they compare to existing models...

  16. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

  17. Marketable pollution permits with uncertainty and transaction costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Montero, Juan-Pablo

    1998-01-01

    Increasing interest in the use of marketable permits for pollution control has become evident in recent years. Concern regarding their performance still remains because empirical evidence has shown transaction costs and uncertainty to be significant in past and existing marketable permits programs. In this paper we develop theoretical and numerical models that include transaction costs and uncertainty (in trade approval) to show their effects on market performance (i.e., equilibrium price of permits and trading volume) and aggregate control costs. We also show that in the presence of transaction costs and uncertainty the initial allocation of permits may not be neutral in terms of efficiency. Furthermore, using a numerical model for a hypothetical NO x trading program in which participants have discrete control technology choices, we find that aggregate control costs and the equilibrium price of permits are sensitive to the initial allocation of permits, even for constant marginal transaction costs and certainty

  18. Entropic uncertainty relations in the Heisenberg XXZ model and its controlling via filtering operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Shi, Wei-Nan; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

    2018-04-01

    The uncertainty principle is recognized as an elementary ingredient of quantum theory and sets up a significant bound to predict outcome of measurement for a couple of incompatible observables. In this work, we develop dynamical features of quantum memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (QMA-EUR) in a two-qubit Heisenberg XXZ spin chain with an inhomogeneous magnetic field. We specifically derive the dynamical evolutions of the entropic uncertainty with respect to the measurement in the Heisenberg XXZ model when spin A is initially correlated with quantum memory B. It has been found that the larger coupling strength J of the ferromagnetism ( J 0 ) chains can effectively degrade the measuring uncertainty. Besides, it turns out that the higher temperature can induce the inflation of the uncertainty because the thermal entanglement becomes relatively weak in this scenario, and there exists a distinct dynamical behavior of the uncertainty when an inhomogeneous magnetic field emerges. With the growing magnetic field | B | , the variation of the entropic uncertainty will be non-monotonic. Meanwhile, we compare several different optimized bounds existing with the initial bound proposed by Berta et al. and consequently conclude Adabi et al.'s result is optimal. Moreover, we also investigate the mixedness of the system of interest, dramatically associated with the uncertainty. Remarkably, we put forward a possible physical interpretation to explain the evolutionary phenomenon of the uncertainty. Finally, we take advantage of a local filtering operation to steer the magnitude of the uncertainty. Therefore, our explorations may shed light on the entropic uncertainty under the Heisenberg XXZ model and hence be of importance to quantum precision measurement over solid state-based quantum information processing.

  19. On the uncertainty principle. V

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halpern, O.

    1976-01-01

    The treatment of ideal experiments connected with the uncertainty principle is continued. The author analyzes successively measurements of momentum and position, and discusses the common reason why the results in all cases differ from the conventional ones. A similar difference exists for the measurement of field strengths. The interpretation given by Weizsaecker, who tried to interpret Bohr's complementarity principle by introducing a multi-valued logic is analyzed. The treatment of the uncertainty principle ΔE Δt is deferred to a later paper as is the interpretation of the method of variation of constants. Every ideal experiment discussed shows various lower limits for the value of the uncertainty product which limits depend on the experimental arrangement and are always (considerably) larger than h. (Auth.)

  20. The economic implications of carbon cycle uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Steven J.; Edmonds, James A.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the implications of uncertainty in the carbon cycle for the cost of stabilizing carbon dioxide concentrations. Using a state of the art integrated assessment model, we find that uncertainty in our understanding of the carbon cycle has significant implications for the costs of a climate stabilization policy, with cost differences denominated in trillions of dollars. Uncertainty in the carbon cycle is equivalent to a change in concentration target of up to 100 ppmv. The impact of carbon cycle uncertainties are smaller than those for climate sensitivity, and broadly comparable to the effect of uncertainty in technology availability

  1. Use of probabilistic methods for analysis of cost and duration uncertainties in a decision analysis framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

    1995-01-01

    Probabilistic forecasting techniques have been used in many risk assessment and performance assessment applications on radioactive waste disposal projects such as Yucca Mountain and the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Probabilistic techniques such as Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling methods are routinely used to treat uncertainties in physical parameters important in simulating radionuclide transport in a coupled geohydrologic system and assessing the ability of that system to comply with regulatory release limits. However, the use of probabilistic techniques in the treatment of uncertainties in the cost and duration of programmatic alternatives on risk and performance assessment projects is less common. Where significant uncertainties exist and where programmatic decisions must be made despite existing uncertainties, probabilistic techniques may yield important insights into decision options, especially when used in a decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. For relatively simple evaluations, these types of probabilistic evaluations can be made using personal computer-based software

  2. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  3. Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleš Mlakar

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

  4. Instrument uncertainty predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-07-01

    The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

  5. Worry, Intolerance of Uncertainty, and Statistics Anxiety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Amanda S.

    2013-01-01

    Statistics anxiety is a problem for most graduate students. This study investigates the relationship between intolerance of uncertainty, worry, and statistics anxiety. Intolerance of uncertainty was significantly related to worry, and worry was significantly related to three types of statistics anxiety. Six types of statistics anxiety were…

  6. Uncertainty assessment for accelerator-driven systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finck, P. J.; Gomes, I.; Micklich, B.; Palmiotti, G.

    1999-01-01

    The concept of a subcritical system driven by an external source of neutrons provided by an accelerator ADS (Accelerator Driver System) has been recently revived and is becoming more popular in the world technical community with active programs in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. A general consensus has been reached in adopting for the subcritical component a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled configuration. Both a lead-bismuth eutectic, sodium and gas are being considered as a coolant; each has advantages and disadvantages. The major expected advantage is that subcriticality avoids reactivity induced transients. The potentially large subcriticality margin also should allow for the introduction of very significant quantities of waste products (minor Actinides and Fission Products) which negatively impact the safety characteristics of standard cores. In the U.S. these arguments are the basis for the development of the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW), which has significant potential in reducing nuclear waste levels. Up to now, neutronic calculations have not attached uncertainties on the values of the main nuclear integral parameters that characterize the system. Many of these parameters (e.g., degree of subcriticality) are crucial to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of this concept. In this paper we will consider uncertainties related to nuclear data only. The present knowledge of the cross sections of many isotopes that are not usually utilized in existing reactors (like Bi, Pb-207, Pb-208, and also Minor Actinides and Fission Products) suggests that uncertainties in the integral parameters will be significantly larger than for conventional reactor systems, and this raises concerns on the neutronic performance of those systems

  7. Requirements for existing buildings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Kirsten Engelund; Wittchen, Kim Bjarne

    This report collects energy performance requirements for existing buildings in European member states by June 2012.......This report collects energy performance requirements for existing buildings in European member states by June 2012....

  8. Greening Existing Tribal Buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidance about improving sustainability in existing tribal casinos and manufactured homes. Many steps can be taken to make existing buildings greener and healthier. They may also reduce utility and medical costs.

  9. Using a Meniscus to Teach Uncertainty in Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Backman, Philip

    2008-01-01

    I have found that students easily understand that a measurement cannot be exact, but they often seem to lack an understanding of why it is important to know "something" about the magnitude of the uncertainty. This tends to promote an attitude that almost any uncertainty value will do. Such indifference may exist because once an uncertainty is…

  10. Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

    2016-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections

  11. Uncertainty analysis guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  12. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  13. Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

    2016-06-01

    R(2), 0.29). The relatively low levels of uncertainty among orthopaedic surgeons and confidence bias seem inconsistent with the paucity of definitive evidence. If patients want to be informed of the areas of uncertainty and surgeon-to-surgeon variation relevant to their care, it seems possible that a low recognition of uncertainty and surgeon confidence bias might hinder adequately informing patients, informed decisions, and consent. Moreover, limited recognition of uncertainty is associated with modifiable factors such as confidence bias, trust in orthopaedic evidence base, and statistical understanding. Perhaps improved statistical teaching in residency, journal clubs to improve the critique of evidence and awareness of bias, and acknowledgment of knowledge gaps at courses and conferences might create awareness about existing uncertainties. Level 1, prognostic study.

  14. On the EU approach for DEMO architecture exploration and dealing with uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, M., E-mail: matti.coleman@euro-fusion.org [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Maviglia, F.; Bachmann, C. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Anthony, J. [CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Federici, G. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Shannon, M. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); CCFE Fusion Association, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon, Oxfordshire OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Wenninger, R. [EUROfusion Consortium, Boltzmannstraße 2, 85748 Garching (Germany); Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, 85748 Garching (Germany)

    2016-11-01

    Highlights: • The issue of epistemic uncertainties in the DEMO design basis is described. • An approach to tackle uncertainty by investigating plant architectures is proposed. • The first wall heat load uncertainty is addressed following the proposed approach. - Abstract: One of the difficulties inherent in designing a future fusion reactor is dealing with uncertainty. As the major step between ITER and the commercial exploitation of nuclear fusion energy, DEMO will have to address many challenges – the natures of which are still not fully known. Unlike fission reactors, fusion reactors suffer from the intrinsic complexity of the tokamak (numerous interdependent system parameters) and from the dependence of plasma physics on scale – prohibiting design exploration founded on incremental progression and small-scale experimentation. For DEMO, this means that significant technical uncertainties will exist for some time to come, and a systems engineering design exploration approach must be developed to explore the reactor architecture when faced with these uncertainties. Important uncertainties in the context of fusion reactor design are discussed and a strategy for dealing with these is presented, treating the uncertainty in the first wall loads as an example.

  15. Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.

    2017-12-01

    The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.

  16. Fuzzy Uncertainty Evaluation for Fault Tree Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ki Beom; Shim, Hyung Jin [Seoul National University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Jae, Moo Sung [Hanyang University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    This traditional probabilistic approach can calculate relatively accurate results. However it requires a long time because of repetitive computation due to the MC method. In addition, when informative data for statistical analysis are not sufficient or some events are mainly caused by human error, the probabilistic approach may not be possible because uncertainties of these events are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions. In order to reduce the computation time and quantify uncertainties of top events when basic events whose uncertainties are difficult to be expressed by probabilistic distributions exist, the fuzzy uncertainty propagation based on fuzzy set theory can be applied. In this paper, we develop a fuzzy uncertainty propagation code and apply the fault tree of the core damage accident after the large loss of coolant accident (LLOCA). The fuzzy uncertainty propagation code is implemented and tested for the fault tree of the radiation release accident. We apply this code to the fault tree of the core damage accident after the LLOCA in three cases and compare the results with those computed by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation using the MC method. The results obtained by the fuzzy uncertainty propagation can be calculated in relatively short time, covering the results obtained by the probabilistic uncertainty propagation.

  17. Decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized

  18. Habitable zone dependence on stellar parameter uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kane, Stephen R.

    2014-01-01

    An important property of exoplanetary systems is the extent of the Habitable Zone (HZ), defined as that region where water can exist in a liquid state on the surface of a planet with sufficient atmospheric pressure. Both ground- and space-based observations have revealed a plethora of confirmed exoplanets and exoplanetary candidates, most notably from the Kepler mission using the transit detection technique. Many of these detected planets lie within the predicted HZ of their host star. However, as is the case with the derived properties of the planets themselves, the HZ boundaries depend on how well we understand the host star. Here we quantify the uncertainties of HZ boundaries on the parameter uncertainties of the host star. We examine the distribution of stellar parameter uncertainties from confirmed exoplanet hosts and Kepler candidate hosts and translate these into HZ boundary uncertainties. We apply this to several known systems with an HZ planet to determine the uncertainty in their HZ status.

  19. Habitable zone dependence on stellar parameter uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kane, Stephen R., E-mail: skane@sfsu.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Francisco State University, 1600 Holloway Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)

    2014-02-20

    An important property of exoplanetary systems is the extent of the Habitable Zone (HZ), defined as that region where water can exist in a liquid state on the surface of a planet with sufficient atmospheric pressure. Both ground- and space-based observations have revealed a plethora of confirmed exoplanets and exoplanetary candidates, most notably from the Kepler mission using the transit detection technique. Many of these detected planets lie within the predicted HZ of their host star. However, as is the case with the derived properties of the planets themselves, the HZ boundaries depend on how well we understand the host star. Here we quantify the uncertainties of HZ boundaries on the parameter uncertainties of the host star. We examine the distribution of stellar parameter uncertainties from confirmed exoplanet hosts and Kepler candidate hosts and translate these into HZ boundary uncertainties. We apply this to several known systems with an HZ planet to determine the uncertainty in their HZ status.

  20. DS02 uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

    2005-01-01

    In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

  1. Reusable launch vehicle model uncertainties impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiaye; Mu, Rongjun; Zhang, Xin; Deng, Yanpeng

    2018-03-01

    Reusable launch vehicle(RLV) has the typical characteristics of complex aerodynamic shape and propulsion system coupling, and the flight environment is highly complicated and intensely changeable. So its model has large uncertainty, which makes the nominal system quite different from the real system. Therefore, studying the influences caused by the uncertainties on the stability of the control system is of great significance for the controller design. In order to improve the performance of RLV, this paper proposes the approach of analyzing the influence of the model uncertainties. According to the typical RLV, the coupling dynamic and kinematics models are built. Then different factors that cause uncertainties during building the model are analyzed and summed up. After that, the model uncertainties are expressed according to the additive uncertainty model. Choosing the uncertainties matrix's maximum singular values as the boundary model, and selecting the uncertainties matrix's norm to show t how much the uncertainty factors influence is on the stability of the control system . The simulation results illustrate that the inertial factors have the largest influence on the stability of the system, and it is necessary and important to take the model uncertainties into consideration before the designing the controller of this kind of aircraft( like RLV, etc).

  2. Incorporating outcome uncertainty and prior outcome beliefs in stated preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents......’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty...

  3. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  4. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Kanal, LN

    1986-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

  5. Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.

    1988-01-01

    Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references

  6. Critical loads - assessment of uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barkman, A.

    1998-10-01

    The effects of data uncertainty in applications of the critical loads concept were investigated on different spatial resolutions in Sweden and northern Czech Republic. Critical loads of acidity (CL) were calculated for Sweden using the biogeochemical model PROFILE. Three methods with different structural complexity were used to estimate the adverse effects of S0{sub 2} concentrations in northern Czech Republic. Data uncertainties in the calculated critical loads/levels and exceedances (EX) were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. Uncertainties within cumulative distribution functions (CDF) were aggregated by accounting for the overlap between site specific confidence intervals. Aggregation of data uncertainties within CDFs resulted in lower CL and higher EX best estimates in comparison with percentiles represented by individual sites. Data uncertainties were consequently found to advocate larger deposition reductions to achieve non-exceedance based on low critical loads estimates on 150 x 150 km resolution. Input data were found to impair the level of differentiation between geographical units at all investigated resolutions. Aggregation of data uncertainty within CDFs involved more constrained confidence intervals for a given percentile. Differentiation as well as identification of grid cells on 150 x 150 km resolution subjected to EX was generally improved. Calculation of the probability of EX was shown to preserve the possibility to differentiate between geographical units. Re-aggregation of the 95%-ile EX on 50 x 50 km resolution generally increased the confidence interval for each percentile. Significant relationships were found between forest decline and the three methods addressing risks induced by S0{sub 2} concentrations. Modifying S0{sub 2} concentrations by accounting for the length of the vegetation period was found to constitute the most useful trade-off between structural complexity, data availability and effects of data uncertainty. Data

  7. Uncertainties in Safety Analysis. A literature review

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekberg, C.

    1995-05-01

    The purpose of the presented work has been to give a short summary of the origins of many uncertainties arising in the designing and performance assessment of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. Some different methods to treat these uncertainties is also included. The methods and conclusions are in many cases general in the sense that they are applicable to many other disciplines where simulations are used. As a conclusion it may be noted that uncertainties of different origin have been discussed and debated, but one large group, e.g. computer simulations, where the methods to make a more explicit investigation exists, have not been investigated in a satisfying way. 50 refs

  8. Uncertainties in Safety Analysis. A literature review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekberg, C [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Nuclear Chemistry

    1995-05-01

    The purpose of the presented work has been to give a short summary of the origins of many uncertainties arising in the designing and performance assessment of a repository for spent nuclear fuel. Some different methods to treat these uncertainties is also included. The methods and conclusions are in many cases general in the sense that they are applicable to many other disciplines where simulations are used. As a conclusion it may be noted that uncertainties of different origin have been discussed and debated, but one large group, e.g. computer simulations, where the methods to make a more explicit investigation exists, have not been investigated in a satisfying way. 50 refs.

  9. Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durbin, N.E.; Lekberg, A.; Melber, B.D.

    2001-12-01

    When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals

  10. Potential effects of organizational uncertainty on safety

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durbin, N.E. [MPD Consulting Group, Kirkland, WA (United States); Lekberg, A. [Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, Stockholm (Sweden); Melber, B.D. [Melber Consulting, Seattle WA (United States)

    2001-12-01

    When organizations face significant change - reorganization, mergers, acquisitions, down sizing, plant closures or decommissioning - both the organizations and the workers in those organizations experience significant uncertainty about the future. This uncertainty affects the organization and the people working in the organization - adversely affecting morale, reducing concentration on safe operations, and resulting in the loss of key staff. Hence, organizations, particularly those using high risk technologies, which are facing significant change need to consider and plan for the effects of organizational uncertainty on safety - as well as planning for other consequences of change - technical, economic, emotional, and productivity related. This paper reviews some of what is known about the effects of uncertainty on organizations and individuals, discusses the potential consequences of uncertainty on organizational and individual behavior, and presents some of the implications for safety professionals.

  11. [Influence of Uncertainty and Uncertainty Appraisal on Self-management in Hemodialysis Patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Hyung Suk; Lee, Chang Suk; Yang, Young Hee

    2015-04-01

    This study was done to examine the relation of uncertainty, uncertainty appraisal, and self-management in patients undergoing hemodialysis, and to identify factors influencing self-management. A convenience sample of 92 patients receiving hemodialysis was selected. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and medical records. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlations and multiple regression analysis with the SPSS/WIN 20.0 program. The participants showed a moderate level of uncertainty with the highest score being for ambiguity among the four uncertainty subdomains. Scores for uncertainty danger or opportunity appraisals were under the mid points. The participants were found to perform a high level of self-management such as diet control, management of arteriovenous fistula, exercise, medication, physical management, measurements of body weight and blood pressure, and social activity. The self-management of participants undergoing hemodialysis showed a significant relationship with uncertainty and uncertainty appraisal. The significant factors influencing self-management were uncertainty, uncertainty opportunity appraisal, hemodialysis duration, and having a spouse. These variables explained 32.8% of the variance in self-management. The results suggest that intervention programs to reduce the level of uncertainty and to increase the level of uncertainty opportunity appraisal among patients would improve the self-management of hemodialysis patients.

  12. Error and uncertainty in scientific practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boumans, M.; Hon, G.; Petersen, A.C.

    2014-01-01

    Assessment of error and uncertainty is a vital component of both natural and social science. Empirical research involves dealing with all kinds of errors and uncertainties, yet there is significant variance in how such results are dealt with. Contributors to this volume present case studies of

  13. On treatment of uncertainty in system planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flage, R.; Aven, T.

    2009-01-01

    In system planning and operation considerable efforts and resources are spent to reduce uncertainties, as a part of project management, uncertainty management and safety management. The basic idea seems to be that uncertainties are purely negative and should be reduced. In this paper we challenge this way of thinking, using a common industry practice as an example. In accordance with this industry practice, three uncertainty interval categories are used: ±40% intervals for the feasibility phase, ±30% intervals for the concept development phase and ±20% intervals for the engineering phase. The problem is that such a regime could easily lead to a conservative management regime encouraging the use of existing methods and tools, as new activities and novel solutions and arrangements necessarily mean increased uncertainties. In the paper we suggest an alternative approach based on uncertainty and risk descriptions, but having no predefined uncertainty reduction structures. The approach makes use of risk assessments and economic optimisation tools such as the expected net present value, but acknowledges the need for broad risk management processes which extend beyond the analyses. Different concerns need to be balanced, including economic aspects, uncertainties and risk, and practicability

  14. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size

  15. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  16. Uncertainty and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.

    2009-01-01

    More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers

  17. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  18. A Bayesian statistical method for quantifying model form uncertainty and two model combination methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Inseok; Grandhi, Ramana V.

    2014-01-01

    Apart from parametric uncertainty, model form uncertainty as well as prediction error may be involved in the analysis of engineering system. Model form uncertainty, inherently existing in selecting the best approximation from a model set cannot be ignored, especially when the predictions by competing models show significant differences. In this research, a methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation is presented to quantify model form uncertainty using the measured differences of experimental and model outcomes, and is compared with a fully Bayesian estimation to demonstrate its effectiveness. While a method called the adjustment factor approach is utilized to propagate model form uncertainty alone into the prediction of a system response, a method called model averaging is utilized to incorporate both model form uncertainty and prediction error into it. A numerical problem of concrete creep is used to demonstrate the processes for quantifying model form uncertainty and implementing the adjustment factor approach and model averaging. Finally, the presented methodology is applied to characterize the engineering benefits of a laser peening process

  19. Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermes, N.; Lensink, R.

    2000-01-01

    This paper shows that policy uncertainty, measured by the uncertainty of budget deficits, tax payments, government consumption and the inflation rate, has a statistically significant positive impact on capital flight. This result remains robust after having applied stability tests.

  20. Interactions between perceived uncertainty types in service dyads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie

    2018-01-01

    to avoid business failure. A conceptual framework of four uncertainty types is investigated: environmental, technological, organisational, and relational uncertainty. We present insights from four empirical cases of service dyads collected via multiple sources of evidence including 54 semi-structured...... interviews, observations, and secondary data. The cases show seven interaction paths with direct knock-on effects between two uncertainty types and indirect knock-on effects between three or four uncertainty types. The findings suggest a causal chain from environmental, technological, organisational......, to relational uncertainty. This research contributes to the servitization literature by (i) con-firming the existence of uncertainty types, (ii) providing an in-depth characterisation of technological uncertainty, and (iii) showing the interaction paths between four uncertainty types in the form of a causal...

  1. Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

    2017-10-01

    A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

  2. Verification of uncertainty budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    , and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...

  3. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  4. Uncertainty analysis of the FRAP code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, S.O.

    1978-01-01

    A user oriented, automated uncertainty analysis capability has been built into the Fuel Rod Analysis Program (FRAP) code and has been applied to a pressurized water reactor (PWR) fuel rod undergoing a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). The method of uncertainty analysis is the response surface method. The automated version significantly reduced the time required to complete the analysis and, at the same time, greatly increased the problem scope. Results of the analysis showed a significant difference in the total and relative contributions to the uncertainty of the response parameters between steady state and transient conditions

  5. Accounting for Epistemic Uncertainty in Mission Supportability Assessment: A Necessary Step in Understanding Risk and Logistics Requirements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owens, Andrew; De Weck, Olivier L.; Stromgren, Chel; Goodliff, Kandyce; Cirillo, William

    2017-01-01

    Future crewed missions to Mars present a maintenance logistics challenge that is unprecedented in human spaceflight. Mission endurance – defined as the time between resupply opportunities – will be significantly longer than previous missions, and therefore logistics planning horizons are longer and the impact of uncertainty is magnified. Maintenance logistics forecasting typically assumes that component failure rates are deterministically known and uses them to represent aleatory uncertainty, or uncertainty that is inherent to the process being examined. However, failure rates cannot be directly measured; rather, they are estimated based on similarity to other components or statistical analysis of observed failures. As a result, epistemic uncertainty – that is, uncertainty in knowledge of the process – exists in failure rate estimates that must be accounted for. Analyses that neglect epistemic uncertainty tend to significantly underestimate risk. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced via operational experience; for example, the International Space Station (ISS) failure rate estimates are refined using a Bayesian update process. However, design changes may re-introduce epistemic uncertainty. Thus, there is a tradeoff between changing a design to reduce failure rates and operating a fixed design to reduce uncertainty. This paper examines the impact of epistemic uncertainty on maintenance logistics requirements for future Mars missions, using data from the ISS Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLS) as a baseline for a case study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to investigate the impact of variations in failure rate estimates and epistemic uncertainty on spares mass. The results of these analyses and their implications for future system design and mission planning are discussed.

  6. Information-theoretic approach to uncertainty importance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, C.K.; Bari, R.A.

    1985-01-01

    A method is presented for importance analysis in probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) for which the results of interest are characterized by full uncertainty distributions and not just point estimates. The method is based on information theory in which entropy is a measure of uncertainty of a probability density function. We define the relative uncertainty importance between two events as the ratio of the two exponents of the entropies. For the log-normal and log-uniform distributions the importance measure is comprised of the median (central tendency) and of the logarithm of the error factor (uncertainty). Thus, if accident sequences are ranked this way, and the error factors are not all equal, then a different rank order would result than if the sequences were ranked by the central tendency measure alone. As an illustration, the relative importance of internal events and in-plant fires was computed on the basis of existing PRA results

  7. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  8. Uncertainty in oil projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limperopoulos, G.J.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents an oil project valuation under uncertainty by means of two well-known financial techniques: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. CAPM gives a linear positive relationship between expected rate of return and risk but does not take into consideration the aspect of flexibility which is crucial for an irreversible investment as an oil price is. Introduction of investment decision flexibility by using real options can increase the oil project value substantially. Some simple tests for the importance of uncertainty in stock market for oil investments are performed. Uncertainty in stock returns is correlated with aggregate product market uncertainty according to Pindyck (1991). The results of the tests are not satisfactory due to the short data series but introducing two other explanatory variables the interest rate and Gross Domestic Product make the situation better. 36 refs., 18 figs., 6 tabs

  9. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  10. Mechanics and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lemaire, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

  11. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  12. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  13. Religion in the face of uncertainty: an uncertainty-identity theory account of religiousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hogg, Michael A; Adelman, Janice R; Blagg, Robert D

    2010-02-01

    The authors characterize religions as social groups and religiosity as the extent to which a person identifies with a religion, subscribes to its ideology or worldview, and conforms to its normative practices. They argue that religions have attributes that make them well suited to reduce feelings of self-uncertainty. According to uncertainty-identity theory, people are motivated to reduce feelings of uncertainty about or reflecting on self; and identification with groups, particularly highly entitative groups, is a very effective way to reduce uncertainty. All groups provide belief systems and normative prescriptions related to everyday life. However, religions also address the nature of existence, invoking sacred entities and associated rituals and ceremonies. They are entitative groups that provide a moral compass and rules for living that pervade a person's life, making them particularly attractive in times of uncertainty. The authors document data supporting their analysis and discuss conditions that transform religiosity into religious zealotry and extremism.

  14. Uncertainties in the proton lifetime

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ellis, J.; Nanopoulos, D.V.; Rudaz, S.; Gaillard, M.K.

    1980-04-01

    We discuss the masses of the leptoquark bosons m(x) and the proton lifetime in Grand Unified Theories based principally on SU(5). It is emphasized that estimates of m(x) based on the QCD coupling and the fine structure constant are probably more reliable than those using the experimental value of sin 2 theta(w). Uncertainties in the QCD Λ parameter and the correct value of α are discussed. We estimate higher order effects on the evolution of coupling constants in a momentum space renormalization scheme. It is shown that increasing the number of generations of fermions beyond the minimal three increases m(X) by almost a factor of 2 per generation. Additional uncertainties exist for each generation of technifermions that may exist. We discuss and discount the possibility that proton decay could be 'Cabibbo-rotated' away, and a speculation that Lorentz invariance may be violated in proton decay at a detectable level. We estimate that in the absence of any substantial new physics beyond that in the minimal SU(5) model the proton lifetimes is 8 x 10 30+-2 years

  15. Why preeclampsia still exists?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chelbi, Sonia T; Veitia, Reiner A; Vaiman, Daniel

    2013-08-01

    Preeclampsia (PE) is a deadly gestational disease affecting up to 10% of women and specific of the human species. Preeclampsia is clearly multifactorial, but the existence of a genetic basis for this disease is now clearly established by the existence of familial cases, epidemiological studies and known predisposing gene polymorphisms. PE is very common despite the fact that Darwinian pressure should have rapidly eliminated or strongly minimized the frequency of predisposing alleles. Consecutive pregnancies with the same partner decrease the risk and severity of PE. Here, we show that, due to this peculiar feature, preeclampsia predisposing-alleles can be differentially maintained according to the familial structure. Thus, we suggest that an optimal frequency of PE-predisposing alleles in human populations can be achieved as a result of a trade-off between benefits of exogamy, importance for maintaining genetic diversity and increase of the fitness owing to a stable paternal investment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Model Uncertainty Quantification Methods In Data Assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, S. D.; Marshall, L. A.; Sharma, A.; Moradkhani, H.

    2017-12-01

    Data Assimilation involves utilising observations to improve model predictions in a seamless and statistically optimal fashion. Its applications are wide-ranging; from improving weather forecasts to tracking targets such as in the Apollo 11 mission. The use of Data Assimilation methods in high dimensional complex geophysical systems is an active area of research, where there exists many opportunities to enhance existing methodologies. One of the central challenges is in model uncertainty quantification; the outcome of any Data Assimilation study is strongly dependent on the uncertainties assigned to both observations and models. I focus on developing improved model uncertainty quantification methods that are applicable to challenging real world scenarios. These include developing methods for cases where the system states are only partially observed, where there is little prior knowledge of the model errors, and where the model error statistics are likely to be highly non-Gaussian.

  17. Existence of Projective Planes

    OpenAIRE

    Perrott, Xander

    2016-01-01

    This report gives an overview of the history of finite projective planes and their properties before going on to outline the proof that no projective plane of order 10 exists. The report also investigates the search carried out by MacWilliams, Sloane and Thompson in 1970 [12] and confirms their result by providing independent verification that there is no vector of weight 15 in the code generated by the projective plane of order 10.

  18. Predictive uncertainty in auditory sequence processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niels Chr. eHansen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies of auditory expectation have focused on the expectedness perceived by listeners retrospectively in response to events. In contrast, this research examines predictive uncertainty - a property of listeners’ prospective state of expectation prior to the onset of an event. We examine the information-theoretic concept of Shannon entropy as a model of predictive uncertainty in music cognition. This is motivated by the Statistical Learning Hypothesis, which proposes that schematic expectations reflect probabilistic relationships between sensory events learned implicitly through exposure.Using probability estimates from an unsupervised, variable-order Markov model, 12 melodic contexts high in entropy and 12 melodic contexts low in entropy were selected from two musical repertoires differing in structural complexity (simple and complex. Musicians and non-musicians listened to the stimuli and provided explicit judgments of perceived uncertainty (explicit uncertainty. We also examined an indirect measure of uncertainty computed as the entropy of expectedness distributions obtained using a classical probe-tone paradigm where listeners rated the perceived expectedness of the final note in a melodic sequence (inferred uncertainty. Finally, we simulate listeners’ perception of expectedness and uncertainty using computational models of auditory expectation. A detailed model comparison indicates which model parameters maximize fit to the data and how they compare to existing models in the literature.The results show that listeners experience greater uncertainty in high-entropy musical contexts than low-entropy contexts. This effect is particularly apparent for inferred uncertainty and is stronger in musicians than non-musicians. Consistent with the Statistical Learning Hypothesis, the results suggest that increased domain-relevant training is associated with an increasingly accurate cognitive model of probabilistic structure in music.

  19. Predictive uncertainty in auditory sequence processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Niels Chr; Pearce, Marcus T

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies of auditory expectation have focused on the expectedness perceived by listeners retrospectively in response to events. In contrast, this research examines predictive uncertainty-a property of listeners' prospective state of expectation prior to the onset of an event. We examine the information-theoretic concept of Shannon entropy as a model of predictive uncertainty in music cognition. This is motivated by the Statistical Learning Hypothesis, which proposes that schematic expectations reflect probabilistic relationships between sensory events learned implicitly through exposure. Using probability estimates from an unsupervised, variable-order Markov model, 12 melodic contexts high in entropy and 12 melodic contexts low in entropy were selected from two musical repertoires differing in structural complexity (simple and complex). Musicians and non-musicians listened to the stimuli and provided explicit judgments of perceived uncertainty (explicit uncertainty). We also examined an indirect measure of uncertainty computed as the entropy of expectedness distributions obtained using a classical probe-tone paradigm where listeners rated the perceived expectedness of the final note in a melodic sequence (inferred uncertainty). Finally, we simulate listeners' perception of expectedness and uncertainty using computational models of auditory expectation. A detailed model comparison indicates which model parameters maximize fit to the data and how they compare to existing models in the literature. The results show that listeners experience greater uncertainty in high-entropy musical contexts than low-entropy contexts. This effect is particularly apparent for inferred uncertainty and is stronger in musicians than non-musicians. Consistent with the Statistical Learning Hypothesis, the results suggest that increased domain-relevant training is associated with an increasingly accurate cognitive model of probabilistic structure in music.

  20. Strategic Capital Budgeting : Asset Replacement Under Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pawlina, G.; Kort, P.M.

    2001-01-01

    We consider a firm's decision to replace an existing production technology with a new, more cost-efficient one.Kulatilaka and Perotti [1998, Management Science] nd that, in a two-period model, increased product market uncertainty could encourage the firm to invest strategically in the new

  1. How uncertainty analysis of streamflow data can reduce costs and promote robust decisions in water management applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Seibert, Jan; Petersen-Overleir, Asgeir; Lang, Michel; White, Paul; Snelder, Ton; Rutherford, Kit; Krueger, Tobias; Mason, Robert; Kiang, Julie

    2017-07-01

    Streamflow data are used for important environmental and economic decisions, such as specifying and regulating minimum flows, managing water supplies, and planning for flood hazards. Despite significant uncertainty in most flow data, the flow series for these applications are often communicated and used without uncertainty information. In this commentary, we argue that proper analysis of uncertainty in river flow data can reduce costs and promote robust conclusions in water management applications. We substantiate our argument by providing case studies from Norway and New Zealand where streamflow uncertainty analysis has uncovered economic costs in the hydropower industry, improved public acceptance of a controversial water management policy, and tested the accuracy of water quality trends. We discuss the need for practical uncertainty assessment tools that generate multiple flow series realizations rather than simple error bounds. Although examples of such tools are in development, considerable barriers for uncertainty analysis and communication still exist for practitioners, and future research must aim to provide easier access and usability of uncertainty estimates. We conclude that flow uncertainty analysis is critical for good water management decisions.

  2. Statistical uncertainties and unrecognized relationships

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rankin, J.P.

    1985-01-01

    Hidden relationships in specific designs directly contribute to inaccuracies in reliability assessments. Uncertainty factors at the system level may sometimes be applied in attempts to compensate for the impact of such unrecognized relationships. Often uncertainty bands are used to relegate unknowns to a miscellaneous category of low-probability occurrences. However, experience and modern analytical methods indicate that perhaps the dominant, most probable and significant events are sometimes overlooked in statistical reliability assurances. The author discusses the utility of two unique methods of identifying the otherwise often unforeseeable system interdependencies for statistical evaluations. These methods are sneak circuit analysis and a checklist form of common cause failure analysis. Unless these techniques (or a suitable equivalent) are also employed along with the more widely-known assurance tools, high reliability of complex systems may not be adequately assured. This concern is indicated by specific illustrations. 8 references, 5 figures

  3. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for functionals of the time-dependent nuclide density field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.L.; Weisbin, C.R.

    1978-04-01

    An approach to extend the present ORNL sensitivity program to include functionals of the time-dependent nuclide density field is developed. An adjoint equation for the nuclide field was derived previously by using generalized perturbation theory; the present derivation makes use of a variational principle and results in the same equation. The physical significance of this equation is discussed and compared to that of the time-dependent neutron adjoint equation. Computational requirements for determining sensitivity profiles and uncertainties for functionals of the time-dependent nuclide density vector are developed within the framework of the existing FORSS system; in this way the current capability is significantly extended. The development, testing, and use of an adjoint version of the ORIGEN isotope generation and depletion code are documented. Finally, a sample calculation is given which estimates the uncertainty in the plutonium inventory at shutdown of a PWR due to assumed uncertainties in uranium and plutonium cross sections. 8 figures, 4 tables

  4. Revisiting organizational interpretation and three types of uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sund, Kristian J.

    2015-01-01

    that might help explain and untangle some of the conflicting empirical results found in the extant literature. The paper illustrates how the literature could benefit from re-conceptualizing the perceived environmental uncertainty construct to take into account different types of uncertainty. Practical....... Design/methodology/approach – This conceptual paper extends existing conceptual work by distinguishing between general and issue-specific scanning and linking the interpretation process to three different types of perceived uncertainty: state, effect and response uncertainty. Findings – It is proposed...... on existing work by linking the interpretation process to three different types of uncertainty (state, effect and response uncertainty) with several novel and testable propositions. The paper also differentiates clearly general (regular) scanning from issue-specific (irregular) scanning. Finally, the paper...

  5. Roadmap toward addressing and communicating uncertainty in LCA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laurin, Lise; Vigon, Bruce; Fantke, Peter

    2017-01-01

    -characterized uncertainty. The group has investigated current best LCA practices, such as refinements to the pedigree matrix used to assess LCI data quality. In parallel, in the frame of UNEP-SETAC Life Cycle Initiative flagship project on providing Harmonization and Global Guidance for Environmental Life Cycle Impact...... uncertainty is further related to input data, model selection and choices, amongst other aspects. Currently, methods exist to assess and assign uncertainty and variability on LCI data as well as LCIA characterization results. However, often uncertainty is only assessed and reported qualitatively......, is not comparable across impact categories and not consistently assessed and reported across levels of detail. Furthermore, many existing methods and models do not report uncertainty at all or limit their uncertainty assessment to a sensitivity analysis of selected input parameters, while ignoring variability...

  6. Fundamental uncertainty limit of optical flow velocimetry according to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Andreas

    2016-11-01

    Optical flow velocity measurements are important for understanding the complex behavior of flows. Although a huge variety of methods exist, they are either based on a Doppler or a time-of-flight measurement principle. Doppler velocimetry evaluates the velocity-dependent frequency shift of light scattered at a moving particle, whereas time-of-flight velocimetry evaluates the traveled distance of a scattering particle per time interval. Regarding the aim of achieving a minimal measurement uncertainty, it is unclear if one principle allows to achieve lower uncertainties or if both principles can achieve equal uncertainties. For this reason, the natural, fundamental uncertainty limit according to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is derived for Doppler and time-of-flight measurement principles, respectively. The obtained limits of the velocity uncertainty are qualitatively identical showing, e.g., a direct proportionality for the absolute value of the velocity to the power of 32 and an indirect proportionality to the square root of the scattered light power. Hence, both measurement principles have identical potentials regarding the fundamental uncertainty limit due to the quantum mechanical behavior of photons. This fundamental limit can be attained (at least asymptotically) in reality either with Doppler or time-of-flight methods, because the respective Cramér-Rao bounds for dominating photon shot noise, which is modeled as white Poissonian noise, are identical with the conclusions from Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.

  7. Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

    2012-12-01

    Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

  8. Uncertainty in project phases: A framework for organisational change management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie; Balangalibun, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    in the early stage of the change project but was delayed until later phases. Furthermore, the sources of uncertainty were found to be predominantly within the organisation that initiated the change project and connected to the project scope. Based on these findings, propositions for future research are defined......Uncertainty is an integral challenge when managing organisational change projects (OCPs). Current literature highlights the importance of uncertainty; however, falls short of giving insights into the nature of uncertainty and suggestions for managing it. Specifically, no insights exist on how...... uncertainty develops over the different phases of OCPs. This paper presents case-based evidence on different sources of uncertainty in OCPs and how these develop over the different project phases. The results showed some surprising findings as the majority of the uncertainty did not manifest itself...

  9. Some sources of the underestimation of evaluated cross section uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badikov, S.A.; Gai, E.V.

    2003-01-01

    The problem of the underestimation of evaluated cross-section uncertainties is addressed. Two basic sources of the underestimation of evaluated cross-section uncertainties - a) inconsistency between declared and observable experimental uncertainties and b) inadequacy between applied statistical models and processed experimental data - are considered. Both the sources of the underestimation are mainly a consequence of existence of the uncertainties unrecognized by experimenters. A model of a 'constant shift' is proposed for taking unrecognised experimental uncertainties into account. The model is applied for statistical analysis of the 238 U(n,f)/ 235 U(n,f) reaction cross-section ratio measurements. It is demonstrated that multiplication by sqrt(χ 2 ) as instrument for correction of underestimated evaluated cross-section uncertainties fails in case of correlated measurements. It is shown that arbitrary assignment of uncertainties and correlation in a simple least squares fit of two correlated measurements of unknown mean leads to physically incorrect evaluated results. (author)

  10. Uncertainty representation of grey numbers and grey sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yingjie; Liu, Sifeng; John, Robert

    2014-09-01

    In the literature, there is a presumption that a grey set and an interval-valued fuzzy set are equivalent. This presumption ignores the existence of discrete components in a grey number. In this paper, new measurements of uncertainties of grey numbers and grey sets, consisting of both absolute and relative uncertainties, are defined to give a comprehensive representation of uncertainties in a grey number and a grey set. Some simple examples are provided to illustrate that the proposed uncertainty measurement can give an effective representation of both absolute and relative uncertainties in a grey number and a grey set. The relationships between grey sets and interval-valued fuzzy sets are also analyzed from the point of view of the proposed uncertainty representation. The analysis demonstrates that grey sets and interval-valued fuzzy sets provide different but overlapping models for uncertainty representation in sets.

  11. Determination of the reference air kerma rate for 192Ir brachytherapy sources and the related uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dijk, Eduard van; Kolkman-Deurloo, Inger-Karine K.; Damen, Patricia M. G.

    2004-01-01

    Different methods exist to determine the air kerma calibration factor of an ionization chamber for the spectrum of a 192 Ir high-dose-rate (HDR) or pulsed-dose-rate (PDR) source. An analysis of two methods to obtain such a calibration factor was performed: (i) the method recommended by [Goetsch et al., Med. Phys. 18, 462-467 (1991)] and (ii) the method employed by the Dutch national standards institute NMi [Petersen et al., Report S-EI-94.01 (NMi, Delft, The Netherlands, 1994)]. This analysis showed a systematic difference on the order of 1% in the determination of the strength of 192 Ir HDR and PDR sources depending on the method used for determining the air kerma calibration factor. The definitive significance of the difference between these methods can only be addressed after performing an accurate analysis of the associated uncertainties. For an NE 2561 (or equivalent) ionization chamber and an in-air jig, a typical uncertainty budget of 0.94% was found with the NMi method. The largest contribution in the type-B uncertainty is the uncertainty in the air kerma calibration factor for isotope i, N k i , as determined by the primary or secondary standards laboratories. This uncertainty is dominated by the uncertainties in the physical constants for the average mass-energy absorption coefficient ratio and the stopping power ratios. This means that it is not foreseeable that the standards laboratories can decrease the uncertainty in the air kerma calibration factors for ionization chambers in the short term. When the results of the determination of the 192 Ir reference air kerma rates in, e.g., different institutes are compared, the uncertainties in the physical constants are the same. To compare the applied techniques, the ratio of the results can be judged by leaving out the uncertainties due to these physical constants. In that case an uncertainty budget of 0.40% (coverage factor=2) should be taken into account. Due to the differences in approach between the

  12. Some Implications of Two Forms of the Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed M. Khalil

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Various theories of quantum gravity predict the existence of a minimum length scale, which leads to the modification of the standard uncertainty principle to the Generalized Uncertainty Principle (GUP. In this paper, we study two forms of the GUP and calculate their implications on the energy of the harmonic oscillator and the hydrogen atom more accurately than previous studies. In addition, we show how the GUP modifies the Lorentz force law and the time-energy uncertainty principle.

  13. Research of Uncertainty Reasoning in Pineapple Disease Identification System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Liqun; Fan, Haifeng

    In order to deal with the uncertainty of evidences mostly existing in pineapple disease identification system, a reasoning model based on evidence credibility factor was established. The uncertainty reasoning method is discussed,including: uncertain representation of knowledge, uncertain representation of rules, uncertain representation of multi-evidences and update of reasoning rules. The reasoning can fully reflect the uncertainty in disease identification and reduce the influence of subjective factors on the accuracy of the system.

  14. Uncertainty analysis in Monte Carlo criticality computations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi Ao

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: ► Two types of uncertainty methods for k eff Monte Carlo computations are examined. ► Sampling method has the least restrictions on perturbation but computing resources. ► Analytical method is limited to small perturbation on material properties. ► Practicality relies on efficiency, multiparameter applicability and data availability. - Abstract: Uncertainty analysis is imperative for nuclear criticality risk assessments when using Monte Carlo neutron transport methods to predict the effective neutron multiplication factor (k eff ) for fissionable material systems. For the validation of Monte Carlo codes for criticality computations against benchmark experiments, code accuracy and precision are measured by both the computational bias and uncertainty in the bias. The uncertainty in the bias accounts for known or quantified experimental, computational and model uncertainties. For the application of Monte Carlo codes for criticality analysis of fissionable material systems, an administrative margin of subcriticality must be imposed to provide additional assurance of subcriticality for any unknown or unquantified uncertainties. Because of a substantial impact of the administrative margin of subcriticality on economics and safety of nuclear fuel cycle operations, recently increasing interests in reducing the administrative margin of subcriticality make the uncertainty analysis in criticality safety computations more risk-significant. This paper provides an overview of two most popular k eff uncertainty analysis methods for Monte Carlo criticality computations: (1) sampling-based methods, and (2) analytical methods. Examples are given to demonstrate their usage in the k eff uncertainty analysis due to uncertainties in both neutronic and non-neutronic parameters of fissionable material systems.

  15. The application, benefits and challenges of retrofitting the existing buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khairi, Muhammad; Jaapar, Aini; Yahya, Zaharah

    2017-11-01

    Sustainable development has been the main topic of debate for years in some countries such as United Kingdom, United State of America and Malaysia. Depletion of natural resources, global warming, economics uncertainty and health issues are some of the reasons behind sustainable development movements, it is not just a political debate in the parliament but more towards collective works among sectors in order to minimizing the negative impact of development to the environment and other living organism. Retrofit an existing building is one of the solutions to reduce the dependency on constructing new buildings. There are huge numbers of existing building stocks that suitable to be retrofitted such as historical buildings, offices, residential, warehouse, factories, vacant buildings and other historical buildings. Therefore, the aim of this research is to provide information on the application, benefits and challenges of retrofitting an existing building. Two buildings were chosen as case studies following by site visits and observation to the buildings. The data were then compared in a table form. Primary and secondary sources were also used for this research. The application of retrofit should be promoted across the construction and conservation industries since it has significant tangible and intangible benefits. It is one of the most environmentally friendly and efficient solutions to optimize the energy performance and could also helps to extend the life of the existing building or historical buildings while ensuring optimum thermal comfort for the occupants which leads to higher productivity.

  16. Dealing with exploration uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capen, E.

    1992-01-01

    Exploration for oil and gas should fulfill the most adventurous in their quest for excitement and surprise. This paper tries to cover that tall order. The authors will touch on the magnitude of the uncertainty (which is far greater than in most other businesses), the effects of not knowing target sizes very well, how to build uncertainty into analyses naturally, how to tie reserves and chance estimates to economics, and how to look at the portfolio effect of an exploration program. With no apologies, the authors will be using a different language for some readers - the language of uncertainty, which means probability and statistics. These tools allow one to combine largely subjective exploration information with the more analytical data from the engineering and economic side

  17. Planning ATES systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaxa-Rozen, Marc; Kwakkel, Jan; Bloemendal, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) can contribute to significant reductions in energy use within the built environment, by providing seasonal energy storage in aquifers for the heating and cooling of buildings. ATES systems have experienced a rapid uptake over the last two decades; however, despite successful experiments at the individual level, the overall performance of ATES systems remains below expectations - largely due to suboptimal practices for the planning and operation of systems in urban areas. The interaction between ATES systems and underground aquifers can be interpreted as a common-pool resource problem, in which thermal imbalances or interference could eventually degrade the storage potential of the subsurface. Current planning approaches for ATES systems thus typically follow the precautionary principle. For instance, the permitting process in the Netherlands is intended to minimize thermal interference between ATES systems. However, as shown in recent studies (Sommer et al., 2015; Bakr et al., 2013), a controlled amount of interference may benefit the collective performance of ATES systems. An overly restrictive approach to permitting is instead likely to create an artificial scarcity of available space, limiting the potential of the technology in urban areas. In response, master plans - which take into account the collective arrangement of multiple systems - have emerged as an increasingly popular alternative. However, permits and master plans both take a static, ex ante view of ATES governance, making it difficult to predict the effect of evolving ATES use or climactic conditions on overall performance. In particular, the adoption of new systems by building operators is likely to be driven by the available subsurface space and by the performance of existing systems; these outcomes are themselves a function of planning parameters. From this perspective, the interactions between planning authorities, ATES operators, and subsurface conditions

  18. O Ponto G Existe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Alexandre Molina Noccioli

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho busca analisar o tratamento linguístico-discursivo das informações acerca de um tópicotemático tradicionalmente visto como tabu, relacionado a questões sexuais, na notícia O ponto G existe?, publicada em 2008, na revista brasileira Superinteressante, destacando-se como o conhecimento em questão é representado socialmente ao se considerar a linha editorial da revista. A notícia caracteriza-se como um campo fértil para a análise das estratégias divulgativas, já que atrai, inclusive pelas escolhas temáticas, a curiosidade dos leitores. Imbuído de um tema excêntrico, o texto consegue angariar um público jovem interessado em discussões polêmicas relacionadas ao seu universo.

  19. Lebesgue Sets Immeasurable Existence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Marginean Petrovai

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available It is well known that the notion of measure and integral were released early enough in close connection with practical problems of measuring of geometric figures. Notion of measure was outlined in the early 20th century through H. Lebesgue’s research, founder of the modern theory of measure and integral. It was developed concurrently a technique of integration of functions. Gradually it was formed a specific area todaycalled the measure and integral theory. Essential contributions to building this theory was made by a large number of mathematicians: C. Carathodory, J. Radon, O. Nikodym, S. Bochner, J. Pettis, P. Halmos and many others. In the following we present several abstract sets, classes of sets. There exists the sets which are not Lebesgue measurable and the sets which are Lebesgue measurable but are not Borel measurable. Hence B ⊂ L ⊂ P(X.

  20. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD

    1990-01-01

    Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i

  1. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  2. Testing Significance Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joachim I. Krueger

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The practice of Significance Testing (ST remains widespread in psychological science despite continual criticism of its flaws and abuses. Using simulation experiments, we address four concerns about ST and for two of these we compare ST’s performance with prominent alternatives. We find the following: First, the 'p' values delivered by ST predict the posterior probability of the tested hypothesis well under many research conditions. Second, low 'p' values support inductive inferences because they are most likely to occur when the tested hypothesis is false. Third, 'p' values track likelihood ratios without raising the uncertainties of relative inference. Fourth, 'p' values predict the replicability of research findings better than confidence intervals do. Given these results, we conclude that 'p' values may be used judiciously as a heuristic tool for inductive inference. Yet, 'p' values cannot bear the full burden of inference. We encourage researchers to be flexible in their selection and use of statistical methods.

  3. Application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to the air quality SHERPA modelling tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pisoni, E.; Albrecht, D.; Mara, T. A.; Rosati, R.; Tarantola, S.; Thunis, P.

    2018-06-01

    Air quality has significantly improved in Europe over the past few decades. Nonetheless we still find high concentrations in measurements mainly in specific regions or cities. This dimensional shift, from EU-wide to hot-spot exceedances, calls for a novel approach to regional air quality management (to complement EU-wide existing policies). The SHERPA (Screening for High Emission Reduction Potentials on Air quality) modelling tool was developed in this context. It provides an additional tool to be used in support to regional/local decision makers responsible for the design of air quality plans. It is therefore important to evaluate the quality of the SHERPA model, and its behavior in the face of various kinds of uncertainty. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques can be used for this purpose. They both reveal the links between assumptions and forecasts, help in-model simplification and may highlight unexpected relationships between inputs and outputs. Thus, a policy steered SHERPA module - predicting air quality improvement linked to emission reduction scenarios - was evaluated by means of (1) uncertainty analysis (UA) to quantify uncertainty in the model output, and (2) by sensitivity analysis (SA) to identify the most influential input sources of this uncertainty. The results of this study provide relevant information about the key variables driving the SHERPA output uncertainty, and advise policy-makers and modellers where to place their efforts for an improved decision-making process.

  4. EXIST Perspective for SFXTs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ubertini, Pietro; Sidoli, L.; Sguera, V.; Bazzano, A.

    2009-12-01

    Supergiant Fast X-ray Transients (SFXTs) are one of the most interesting (and unexpected) results of the INTEGRAL mission. They are a new class of HMXBs displaying short hard X-ray outbursts (duration less tha a day) characterized by fast flares (few hours timescale) and large dinamic range (10E3-10E4). The physical mechanism driving their peculiar behaviour is still unclear and highly debated: some models involve the structure of the supergiant companion donor wind (likely clumpy, in a spherical or non spherical geometry) and the orbital properties (wide separation with eccentric or circular orbit), while others involve the properties of the neutron star compact object and invoke very low magnetic field values (B 1E14 G, magnetars). The picture is still highly unclear from the observational point of view as well: no cyclotron lines have been detected in the spectra, thus the strength of the neutron star magnetic field is unknown. Orbital periods have been measured in only 4 systems, spanning from 3.3 days to 165 days. Even the duty cycle seems to be quite different from source to source. The Energetic X-ray Imaging Survey Telescope (EXIST), with its hard X-ray all-sky survey and large improved limiting sensitivity, will allow us to get a clearer picture of SFXTs. A complete census of their number is essential to enlarge the sample. A long term and continuous as possible X-ray monitoring is crucial to -(1) obtain the duty cycle, -(2 )investigate their unknown orbital properties (separation, orbital period, eccentricity),- (3) to completely cover the whole outburst activity, (4)-to search for cyclotron lines in the high energy spectra. EXIST observations will provide crucial informations to test the different models and shed light on the peculiar behaviour of SFXTs.

  5. Appropriatie spatial scales to achieve model output uncertainty goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Melching, Charles S.; Chen, Xiaohong; Chen, Yongqin; Xia, Jun; Zhang, Hailun

    2008-01-01

    Appropriate spatial scales of hydrological variables were determined using an existing methodology based on a balance in uncertainties from model inputs and parameters extended with a criterion based on a maximum model output uncertainty. The original methodology uses different relationships between

  6. Conquering complexity - Dealing with uncertainty and ambiguity in water management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, Saskia

    2008-01-01

    Water management problems are embedded in a natural and social system that is characterized by complexity. Knowledge uncertainty and the existence of divergent actors’ perceptions contribute to this complexity. Consequently, dealing with water management issues is not just a knowledge uncertainty

  7. Large break LOCA uncertainty evaluation and comparison with conservative calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, H.G.

    2004-01-01

    The first formulation of the USA Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) 10CFR50 with applicable sections specific to NPP licensing requirements was released 1976. Over a decade later 10CFR 50.46 allowed the use of BE codes instead of conservative code models but uncertainties have to be identified and quantified. Guidelines were released that described interpretations developed over the intervening years that are applicable. Other countries established similar conservative procedures and acceptance criteria. Because conservative methods were used to calculate the peak values of key parameters, such as peak clad temperature (PCT), it was always acknowledged that a large margin, between the 'conservative' calculated value and the 'true' value, existed. Beside USA, regulation in other countries, like Germany, for example, allowed that the state of science and technology is applied in licensing. I.e. the increase of experimental evidence and progress in code development during time could be used. There was no requirement to apply a pure evaluation methodology with licensed assumptions and frozen codes. The thermal-hydraulic system codes became more and more best-estimate codes based on comprehensive validation. This development was and is possible because the rules and guidelines provide the necessary latitude to consider further development of safety technology. Best estimate codes are allowed to be used in licensing in combination with conservative initial and boundary conditions. However, uncertainty quantification is not required. Since some of the initial and boundary conditions are more conservative compared with those internationally used (e.g. 106% reactor power instead 102%, a single failure plus a non-availability due to preventive maintenance is assumed, etc.) it is claimed that the uncertainties of code models are covered. Since many utilities apply for power increase, calculation results come closer to some licensing criteria. The situation in German licensing

  8. Uncertainties in Forecasting Streamflow using Entropy Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, H.; Singh, V. P.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow forecasting is essential in river restoration, reservoir operation, power generation, irrigation, navigation, and water management. However, there is always uncertainties accompanied in forecast, which may affect the forecasting results and lead to large variations. Therefore, uncertainties must be considered and be assessed properly when forecasting streamflow for water management. The aim of our work is to quantify the uncertainties involved in forecasting streamflow and provide reliable streamflow forecast. Despite that streamflow time series are stochastic, they exhibit seasonal and periodic patterns. Therefore, streamflow forecasting entails modeling seasonality, periodicity, and its correlation structure, and assessing uncertainties. This study applies entropy theory to forecast streamflow and measure uncertainties during the forecasting process. To apply entropy theory for streamflow forecasting, spectral analysis is combined to time series analysis, as spectral analysis can be employed to characterize patterns of streamflow variation and identify the periodicity of streamflow. That is, it permits to extract significant information for understanding the streamflow process and prediction thereof. Application of entropy theory for streamflow forecasting involves determination of spectral density, determination of parameters, and extension of autocorrelation function. The uncertainties brought by precipitation input, forecasting model and forecasted results are measured separately using entropy. With information theory, how these uncertainties transported and aggregated during these processes will be described.

  9. Uncertainty estimation of ultrasonic thickness measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yassir Yassen, Abdul Razak Daud; Mohammad Pauzi Ismail; Abdul Aziz Jemain

    2009-01-01

    The most important factor that should be taken into consideration when selecting ultrasonic thickness measurement technique is its reliability. Only when the uncertainty of a measurement results is known, it may be judged if the result is adequate for intended purpose. The objective of this study is to model the ultrasonic thickness measurement function, to identify the most contributing input uncertainty components, and to estimate the uncertainty of the ultrasonic thickness measurement results. We assumed that there are five error sources significantly contribute to the final error, these sources are calibration velocity, transit time, zero offset, measurement repeatability and resolution, by applying the propagation of uncertainty law to the model function, a combined uncertainty of the ultrasonic thickness measurement was obtained. In this study the modeling function of ultrasonic thickness measurement was derived. By using this model the estimation of the uncertainty of the final output result was found to be reliable. It was also found that the most contributing input uncertainty components are calibration velocity, transit time linearity and zero offset. (author)

  10. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-12-31

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.

  11. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling

  12. Risks, uncertainty, vagueness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.; Renn, O.; Erdmann, G.

    1990-01-01

    The notion of 'risk' is discussed in its social and technological contexts, leading to an investigation of the terms factuality, hypotheticality, uncertainty, and vagueness, and to the problems of acceptance and acceptability especially in the context of political decision finding. (DG) [de

  13. Strategy under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

    1997-01-01

    At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

  14. A review of uncertainty research in impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leung, Wanda; Noble, Bram; Gunn, Jill; Jaeger, Jochen A.G.

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines uncertainty research in Impact Assessment (IA) and the focus of attention of the IA scholarly literature. We do so by first exploring ‘outside’ the IA literature, identifying three main themes of uncertainty research, and then apply these themes to examine the focus of scholarly research on uncertainty ‘inside’ IA. Based on a search of the database Scopus, we identified 134 journal papers published between 1970 and 2013 that address uncertainty in IA, 75% of which were published since 2005. We found that 90% of IA research addressing uncertainty focused on uncertainty in the practice of IA, including uncertainty in impact predictions, models and managing environmental impacts. Notwithstanding early guidance on uncertainty treatment in IA from the 1980s, we found no common, underlying conceptual framework that was guiding research on uncertainty in IA practice. Considerably less attention, only 9% of papers, focused on uncertainty communication, disclosure and decision-making under uncertain conditions, the majority of which focused on the need to disclose uncertainties as opposed to providing guidance on how to do so and effectively use that information to inform decisions. Finally, research focused on theory building for explaining human behavior with respect to uncertainty avoidance constituted only 1% of the IA published literature. We suggest the need for further conceptual framework development for researchers focused on identifying and addressing uncertainty in IA practice; the need for guidance on how best to communicate uncertainties in practice, versus criticizing practitioners for not doing so; research that explores how best to interpret and use disclosures about uncertainty when making decisions about project approvals, and the implications of doing so; and academic theory building and exploring the utility of existing theories to better understand and explain uncertainty avoidance behavior in IA. - Highlights: • We

  15. A review of uncertainty research in impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leung, Wanda, E-mail: wanda.leung@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A5 (Canada); Noble, Bram, E-mail: b.noble@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environment and Sustainability, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A5 (Canada); Gunn, Jill, E-mail: jill.gunn@usask.ca [Department of Geography and Planning, University of Saskatchewan, 117 Science Place, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan S7N 5A5 (Canada); Jaeger, Jochen A.G., E-mail: jochen.jaeger@concordia.ca [Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 de Maisonneuve W., Suite 1255, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8 (Canada); Loyola Sustainability Research Centre, Concordia University, 7141 Sherbrooke W., AD-502, Montreal, Quebec H4B 1R6 (Canada)

    2015-01-15

    This paper examines uncertainty research in Impact Assessment (IA) and the focus of attention of the IA scholarly literature. We do so by first exploring ‘outside’ the IA literature, identifying three main themes of uncertainty research, and then apply these themes to examine the focus of scholarly research on uncertainty ‘inside’ IA. Based on a search of the database Scopus, we identified 134 journal papers published between 1970 and 2013 that address uncertainty in IA, 75% of which were published since 2005. We found that 90% of IA research addressing uncertainty focused on uncertainty in the practice of IA, including uncertainty in impact predictions, models and managing environmental impacts. Notwithstanding early guidance on uncertainty treatment in IA from the 1980s, we found no common, underlying conceptual framework that was guiding research on uncertainty in IA practice. Considerably less attention, only 9% of papers, focused on uncertainty communication, disclosure and decision-making under uncertain conditions, the majority of which focused on the need to disclose uncertainties as opposed to providing guidance on how to do so and effectively use that information to inform decisions. Finally, research focused on theory building for explaining human behavior with respect to uncertainty avoidance constituted only 1% of the IA published literature. We suggest the need for further conceptual framework development for researchers focused on identifying and addressing uncertainty in IA practice; the need for guidance on how best to communicate uncertainties in practice, versus criticizing practitioners for not doing so; research that explores how best to interpret and use disclosures about uncertainty when making decisions about project approvals, and the implications of doing so; and academic theory building and exploring the utility of existing theories to better understand and explain uncertainty avoidance behavior in IA. - Highlights: • We

  16. War No Longer Exists

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-22

    populace. News and social media flooded the world with images of fighting, frequently reporting the destruction and loss of life in small towns and...authors. Superficial comparisons of study results can lead to erroneous conclusions since study parameters are often significantly different...European officers nicknamed American troops “ teenage mutant ninja turtles” because they were required to wear helmets and body armor even in low threat

  17. Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output growth in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhar, Ramprasad; Mallik, Girijasankar

    2010-12-01

    Employing a multivariate EGARCH-M model, this study investigates the effects of inflation uncertainty and growth uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the United States. Our results show that inflation uncertainty has a positive and significant effect on the level of inflation and a negative and significant effect on the output growth. However, output uncertainty has no significant effect on output growth or inflation. The oil price also has a positive and significant effect on inflation. These findings are robust and have been corroborated by use of an impulse response function. These results have important implications for inflation-targeting monetary policy, and the aim of stabilization policy in general.

  18. Uncertainties affecting fund collection, management and final utilisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soederberg, Olof

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents, on a general level, major uncertainties in financing systems aiming at providing secure funding for future costs for decommissioning. The perspective chosen is that of a fund collector/manager. The paper also contains a description of how these uncertainties are dealt within the Swedish financing system and particularly from the perspective of the Board of the Swedish Nuclear Waste Fund. It is concluded that existing uncertainties are a good reason not to postpone decommissioning activities to a distant future. This aspect is important also when countries have in place financing systems that have been constructed in order to be robust against identified uncertainties. (author)

  19. Source terms: an investigation of uncertainties, magnitudes, and recommendations for research. [PWR; BWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levine, S.; Kaiser, G. D.; Arcieri, W. C.; Firstenberg, H.; Fulford, P. J.; Lam, P. S.; Ritzman, R. L.; Schmidt, E. R.

    1982-03-01

    The purpose of this document is to assess the state of knowledge and expert opinions that exist about fission product source terms from potential nuclear power plant accidents. This is so that recommendations can be made for research and analyses which have the potential to reduce the uncertainties in these estimated source terms and to derive improved methods for predicting their magnitudes. The main reasons for writing this report are to indicate the major uncertainties involved in defining realistic source terms that could arise from severe reactor accidents, to determine which factors would have the most significant impact on public risks and emergency planning, and to suggest research and analyses that could result in the reduction of these uncertainties. Source terms used in the conventional consequence calculations in the licensing process are not explicitly addressed.

  20. Do acupuncture points exist?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan Xiaohui; Zhang Xinyi; Liu Chenglin; Dang, Ruishan; Huang Yuying; He Wei; Ding Guanghong

    2009-01-01

    We used synchrotron x-ray fluorescence analysis to probe the distribution of four chemical elements in and around acupuncture points, two located in the forearm and two in the lower leg. Three of the four acupuncture points showed significantly elevated concentrations of elements Ca, Fe, Cu and Zn in relation to levels in the surrounding tissue, with similar elevation ratios for Cu and Fe. The mapped distribution of these elements implies that each acupuncture point seems to be elliptical with the long axis along the meridian. (note)

  1. Do acupuncture points exist?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan Xiaohui; Zhang Xinyi [Department of Physics, Surface Physics Laboratory (State Key Laboratory), and Synchrotron Radiation Research Center of Fudan University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Liu Chenglin [Physics Department of Yancheng Teachers' College, Yancheng 224002 (China); Dang, Ruishan [Second Military Medical University, Shanghai 200433 (China); Huang Yuying; He Wei [Beijing Synchrotron Radiation Facility, Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039 (China); Ding Guanghong [Shanghai Research Center of Acupuncture and Meridian, Pudong, Shanghai 201203 (China)

    2009-05-07

    We used synchrotron x-ray fluorescence analysis to probe the distribution of four chemical elements in and around acupuncture points, two located in the forearm and two in the lower leg. Three of the four acupuncture points showed significantly elevated concentrations of elements Ca, Fe, Cu and Zn in relation to levels in the surrounding tissue, with similar elevation ratios for Cu and Fe. The mapped distribution of these elements implies that each acupuncture point seems to be elliptical with the long axis along the meridian. (note)

  2. Policy Uncertainty and the US Ethanol Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason P. H. Jones

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2, as implemented, has introduced uncertainty into US ethanol producers and the supporting commodity market. First, the fixed mandate for what is mainly cornstarch-based ethanol has increased feedstock price volatility and exerts a general effect across the agricultural sector. Second, the large discrepancy between the original Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA intentions and the actual RFS2 implementation for some fuel classes has increased the investment uncertainty facing investors in biofuel production, distribution, and consumption. Here we discuss and analyze the sources of uncertainty and evaluate the effect of potential RFS2 adjustments as they influence these uncertainties. This includes the use of a flexible, production dependent mandate on corn starch ethanol. We find that a flexible mandate on cornstarch ethanol relaxed during drought could significantly reduce commodity price spikes and alleviate the decline of livestock production in cases of feedstock production shortfalls, but it would increase the risk for ethanol investors.

  3. Not Normal: the uncertainties of scientific measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, David C.

    2017-01-01

    Judging the significance and reproducibility of quantitative research requires a good understanding of relevant uncertainties, but it is often unclear how well these have been evaluated and what they imply. Reported scientific uncertainties were studied by analysing 41 000 measurements of 3200 quantities from medicine, nuclear and particle physics, and interlaboratory comparisons ranging from chemistry to toxicology. Outliers are common, with 5σ disagreements up to five orders of magnitude more frequent than naively expected. Uncertainty-normalized differences between multiple measurements of the same quantity are consistent with heavy-tailed Student's t-distributions that are often almost Cauchy, far from a Gaussian Normal bell curve. Medical research uncertainties are generally as well evaluated as those in physics, but physics uncertainty improves more rapidly, making feasible simple significance criteria such as the 5σ discovery convention in particle physics. Contributions to measurement uncertainty from mistakes and unknown problems are not completely unpredictable. Such errors appear to have power-law distributions consistent with how designed complex systems fail, and how unknown systematic errors are constrained by researchers. This better understanding may help improve analysis and meta-analysis of data, and help scientists and the public have more realistic expectations of what scientific results imply.

  4. Uncertainty visualisation in the Model Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerharz, L. E.; Autermann, C.; Hopmann, H.; Stasch, C.; Pebesma, E.

    2012-04-01

    Visualisation of geospatial data as maps is a common way to communicate spatially distributed information. If temporal and furthermore uncertainty information are included in the data, efficient visualisation methods are required. For uncertain spatial and spatio-temporal data, numerous visualisation methods have been developed and proposed, but only few tools for visualisation of data in a standardised way exist. Furthermore, usually they are realised as thick clients, and lack functionality of handling data coming from web services as it is envisaged in the Model Web. We present an interactive web tool for visualisation of uncertain spatio-temporal data developed in the UncertWeb project. The client is based on the OpenLayers JavaScript library. OpenLayers provides standard map windows and navigation tools, i.e. pan, zoom in/out, to allow interactive control for the user. Further interactive methods are implemented using jStat, a JavaScript library for statistics plots developed in UncertWeb, and flot. To integrate the uncertainty information into existing standards for geospatial data, the Uncertainty Markup Language (UncertML) was applied in combination with OGC Observations&Measurements 2.0 and JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) encodings for vector and NetCDF for raster data. The client offers methods to visualise uncertain vector and raster data with temporal information. Uncertainty information considered for the tool are probabilistic and quantified attribute uncertainties which can be provided as realisations or samples, full probability distributions functions and statistics. Visualisation is supported for uncertain continuous and categorical data. In the client, the visualisation is realised using a combination of different methods. Based on previously conducted usability studies, a differentiation between expert (in statistics or mapping) and non-expert users has been indicated as useful. Therefore, two different modes are realised together in the tool

  5. Dynamic Uncertainty for Compensated Second-Order Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clemens Elster

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The compensation of LTI systems and the evaluation of the according uncertainty is of growing interest in metrology. Uncertainty evaluation in metrology ought to follow specific guidelines, and recently two corresponding uncertainty evaluation schemes have been proposed for FIR and IIR filtering. We employ these schemes to compare an FIR and an IIR approach for compensating a second-order LTI system which has relevance in metrology. Our results suggest that the FIR approach is superior in the sense that it yields significantly smaller uncertainties when real-time evaluation of uncertainties is desired.

  6. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil Adger, W.; Vincent, K.

    2005-01-01

    The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. (authors)

  7. Uncertainties about climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laval, Katia; Laval, Guy

    2013-01-01

    Like meteorology, climatology is not an exact science: climate change forecasts necessarily include a share of uncertainty. It is precisely this uncertainty which is brandished and exploited by the opponents to the global warming theory to put into question the estimations of its future consequences. Is it legitimate to predict the future using the past climate data (well documented up to 100000 years BP) or the climates of other planets, taking into account the impreciseness of the measurements and the intrinsic complexity of the Earth's machinery? How is it possible to model a so huge and interwoven system for which any exact description has become impossible? Why water and precipitations play such an important role in local and global forecasts, and how should they be treated? This book written by two physicists answers with simpleness these delicate questions in order to give anyone the possibility to build his own opinion about global warming and the need to act rapidly

  8. THE PROPAGATION OF UNCERTAINTIES IN STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELING. II. THE CHALLENGE OF COMPARING GALAXY EVOLUTION MODELS TO OBSERVATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Conroy, Charlie; Gunn, James E.; White, Martin

    2010-01-01

    Models for the formation and evolution of galaxies readily predict physical properties such as star formation rates, metal-enrichment histories, and, increasingly, gas and dust content of synthetic galaxies. Such predictions are frequently compared to the spectral energy distributions of observed galaxies via the stellar population synthesis (SPS) technique. Substantial uncertainties in SPS exist, and yet their relevance to the task of comparing galaxy evolution models to observations has received little attention. In the present work, we begin to address this issue by investigating the importance of uncertainties in stellar evolution, the initial stellar mass function (IMF), and dust and interstellar medium (ISM) properties on the translation from models to observations. We demonstrate that these uncertainties translate into substantial uncertainties in the ultraviolet, optical, and near-infrared colors of synthetic galaxies. Aspects that carry significant uncertainties include the logarithmic slope of the IMF above 1 M sun , dust attenuation law, molecular cloud disruption timescale, clumpiness of the ISM, fraction of unobscured starlight, and treatment of advanced stages of stellar evolution including blue stragglers, the horizontal branch, and the thermally pulsating asymptotic giant branch. The interpretation of the resulting uncertainties in the derived colors is highly non-trivial because many of the uncertainties are likely systematic, and possibly correlated with the physical properties of galaxies. We therefore urge caution when comparing models to observations.

  9. The uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, Hans.

    1991-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is the uncertainty principle (UP). The UP is one of the most characteristic points of differences between quantum and classical mechanics. The starting point of this thesis is the work of Niels Bohr. Besides the discussion the work is also analyzed. For the discussion of the different aspects of the UP the formalism of Davies and Ludwig is used instead of the more commonly used formalism of Neumann and Dirac. (author). 214 refs.; 23 figs

  10. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Shachter, RD; Henrion, M; Lemmer, JF

    1990-01-01

    This volume, like its predecessors, reflects the cutting edge of research on the automation of reasoning under uncertainty.A more pragmatic emphasis is evident, for although some papers address fundamental issues, the majority address practical issues. Topics include the relations between alternative formalisms (including possibilistic reasoning), Dempster-Shafer belief functions, non-monotonic reasoning, Bayesian and decision theoretic schemes, and new inference techniques for belief nets. New techniques are applied to important problems in medicine, vision, robotics, and natural language und

  11. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  12. Economic uncertainty principle?

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander Harin

    2006-01-01

    The economic principle of (hidden) uncertainty is presented. New probability formulas are offered. Examples of solutions of three types of fundamental problems are reviewed.; Principe d'incertitude économique? Le principe économique d'incertitude (cachée) est présenté. De nouvelles formules de chances sont offertes. Les exemples de solutions des trois types de problèmes fondamentaux sont reconsidérés.

  13. Citizen Candidates Under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Eguia, Jon X.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we make two contributions to the growing literature on "citizen-candidate" models of representative democracy. First, we add uncertainty about the total vote count. We show that in a society with a large electorate, where the outcome of the election is uncertain and where winning candidates receive a large reward from holding office, there will be a two-candidate equilibrium and no equilibria with a single candidate. Second, we introduce a new concept of equilibrium, which we te...

  14. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  15. Participation under Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudourides, Moses A.

    2003-01-01

    This essay reviews a number of theoretical perspectives about uncertainty and participation in the present-day knowledge-based society. After discussing the on-going reconfigurations of science, technology and society, we examine how appropriate for policy studies are various theories of social complexity. Post-normal science is such an example of a complexity-motivated approach, which justifies civic participation as a policy response to an increasing uncertainty. But there are different categories and models of uncertainties implying a variety of configurations of policy processes. A particular role in all of them is played by expertise whose democratization is an often-claimed imperative nowadays. Moreover, we discuss how different participatory arrangements are shaped into instruments of policy-making and framing regulatory processes. As participation necessitates and triggers deliberation, we proceed to examine the role and the barriers of deliberativeness. Finally, we conclude by referring to some critical views about the ultimate assumptions of recent European policy frameworks and the conceptions of civic participation and politicization that they invoke

  16. Systematic Evaluation of Uncertainty in Material Flow Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laner, David; Rechberger, Helmut; Astrup, Thomas Fruergaard

    2014-01-01

    Material flow analysis (MFA) is a tool to investigate material flows and stocks in defined systems as a basis for resource management or environmental pollution control. Because of the diverse nature of sources and the varying quality and availability of data, MFA results are inherently uncertain....... Uncertainty analyses have received increasing attention in recent MFA studies, but systematic approaches for selection of appropriate uncertainty tools are missing. This article reviews existing literature related to handling of uncertainty in MFA studies and evaluates current practice of uncertainty analysis......) and exploratory MFA (identification of critical parameters and system behavior). Whereas mathematically simpler concepts focusing on data uncertainty characterization are appropriate for descriptive MFAs, statistical approaches enabling more-rigorous evaluation of uncertainty and model sensitivity are needed...

  17. Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

  18. Uncertainty and sampling issues in tank characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebetrau, A.M.; Pulsipher, B.A.; Kashporenko, D.M.

    1997-06-01

    A defensible characterization strategy must recognize that uncertainties are inherent in any measurement or estimate of interest and must employ statistical methods for quantifying and managing those uncertainties. Estimates of risk and therefore key decisions must incorporate knowledge about uncertainty. This report focuses statistical methods that should be employed to ensure confident decision making and appropriate management of uncertainty. Sampling is a major source of uncertainty that deserves special consideration in the tank characterization strategy. The question of whether sampling will ever provide the reliable information needed to resolve safety issues is explored. The issue of sample representativeness must be resolved before sample information is reliable. Representativeness is a relative term but can be defined in terms of bias and precision. Currently, precision can be quantified and managed through an effective sampling and statistical analysis program. Quantifying bias is more difficult and is not being addressed under the current sampling strategies. Bias could be bounded by (1) employing new sampling methods that can obtain samples from other areas in the tanks, (2) putting in new risers on some worst case tanks and comparing the results from existing risers with new risers, or (3) sampling tanks through risers under which no disturbance or activity has previously occurred. With some bound on bias and estimates of precision, various sampling strategies could be determined and shown to be either cost-effective or infeasible

  19. Significant biases affecting abundance determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesson, Roger

    2015-08-01

    I have developed two highly efficient codes to automate analyses of emission line nebulae. The tools place particular emphasis on the propagation of uncertainties. The first tool, ALFA, uses a genetic algorithm to rapidly optimise the parameters of gaussian fits to line profiles. It can fit emission line spectra of arbitrary resolution, wavelength range and depth, with no user input at all. It is well suited to highly multiplexed spectroscopy such as that now being carried out with instruments such as MUSE at the VLT. The second tool, NEAT, carries out a full analysis of emission line fluxes, robustly propagating uncertainties using a Monte Carlo technique.Using these tools, I have found that considerable biases can be introduced into abundance determinations if the uncertainty distribution of emission lines is not well characterised. For weak lines, normally distributed uncertainties are generally assumed, though it is incorrect to do so, and significant biases can result. I discuss observational evidence of these biases. The two new codes contain routines to correctly characterise the probability distributions, giving more reliable results in analyses of emission line nebulae.

  20. Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chojnacki, Eric

    2002-01-01

    After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory

  1. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear-reactor-safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  2. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear reactor safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  3. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  4. Collaborative framework for PIV uncertainty quantification: the experimental database

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neal, Douglas R; Sciacchitano, Andrea; Scarano, Fulvio; Smith, Barton L

    2015-01-01

    The uncertainty quantification of particle image velocimetry (PIV) measurements has recently become a topic of great interest as shown by the recent appearance of several different methods within the past few years. These approaches have different working principles, merits and limitations, which have been speculated upon in subsequent studies. This paper reports a unique experiment that has been performed specifically to test the efficacy of PIV uncertainty methods. The case of a rectangular jet, as previously studied by Timmins et al (2012) and Wilson and Smith (2013b), is used. The novel aspect of the experiment is simultaneous velocity measurements using two different time-resolved PIV systems and a hot-wire anemometry (HWA) system. The first PIV system, called the PIV measurement system (‘PIV-MS’), is intended for nominal measurements of which the uncertainty is to be evaluated. It is based on a single camera and features a dynamic velocity range (DVR) representative of typical PIV experiments. The second PIV system, called the ‘PIV-HDR’ (high dynamic range) system, features a significantly higher DVR obtained with a higher digital imaging resolution. The hot-wire is placed in close proximity to the PIV measurement domain. The three measurement systems were carefully set to simultaneously measure the flow velocity at the same time and location. The comparison between the PIV-HDR system and the HWA provides an estimate of the measurement precision of the reference velocity for evaluation of the instantaneous error in the measurement system. The discrepancy between the PIV-MS and the reference data provides the measurement error, which is later used to assess the different uncertainty quantification methods proposed in the literature. A detailed comparison of the uncertainty estimation methods based on the present datasets is presented in a second paper from Sciacchitano et al (2015). Furthermore, this database offers the potential to be used for

  5. The EXIST Mission Concept Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fishman, Gerald J.; Grindlay, J.; Hong, J.

    2008-01-01

    EXIST is a mission designed to find and study black holes (BHs) over a wide range of environments and masses, including: 1) BHs accreting from binary companions or dense molecular clouds throughout our Galaxy and the Local Group, 2) supermassive black holes (SMBHs) lying dormant in galaxies that reveal their existence by disrupting passing stars, and 3) SMBHs that are hidden from our view at lower energies due to obscuration by the gas that they accrete. 4) the birth of stellar mass BHs which is accompanied by long cosmic gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) which are seen several times a day and may be associated with the earliest stars to form in the Universe. EXIST will provide an order of magnitude increase in sensitivity and angular resolution as well as greater spectral resolution and bandwidth compared with earlier hard X-ray survey telescopes. With an onboard optical-infra red (IR) telescope, EXIST will measure the spectra and redshifts of GRBs and their utility as cosmological probes of the highest z universe and epoch of reionization. The mission would retain its primary goal of being the Black Hole Finder Probe in the Beyond Einstein Program. However, the new design for EXIST proposed to be studied here represents a significant advance from its previous incarnation as presented to BEPAC. The mission is now less than half the total mass, would be launched on the smallest EELV available (Atlas V-401) for a Medium Class mission, and most importantly includes a two-telescope complement that is ideally suited for the study of both obscured and very distant BHs. EXIST retains its very wide field hard X-ray imaging High Energy Telescope (HET) as the primary instrument, now with improved angular and spectral resolution, and in a more compact payload that allows occasional rapid slews for immediate optical/IR imaging and spectra of GRBs and AGN as well as enhanced hard X-ray spectra and timing with pointed observations. The mission would conduct a 2 year full sky survey in

  6. Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G.; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if

  7. On uncertainty relations in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ignatovich, V.K.

    2004-01-01

    Uncertainty relations (UR) are shown to have nothing specific for quantum mechanics (QM), being the general property valid for the arbitrary function. A wave function of a particle simultaneously having a precisely defined position and momentum in QM is demonstrated. Interference on two slits in a screen is shown to exist in classical mechanics. A nonlinear classical system of equations replacing the QM Schroedinger equation is suggested. This approach is shown to have nothing in common with the Bohm mechanics

  8. Quantum Action Principle with Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    OpenAIRE

    Gu, Jie

    2013-01-01

    One of the common features in all promising candidates of quantum gravity is the existence of a minimal length scale, which naturally emerges with a generalized uncertainty principle, or equivalently a modified commutation relation. Schwinger's quantum action principle was modified to incorporate this modification, and was applied to the calculation of the kernel of a free particle, partly recovering the result previously studied using path integral.

  9. Investment and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greasley, David; Madsen, Jakob B.

    2006-01-01

    A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890-2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty...... surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility, were the chief influences on investment levels, and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930. Investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset...

  10. Optimization under Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Lopez, Rafael H.

    2016-01-06

    The goal of this poster is to present the main approaches to optimization of engineering systems in the presence of uncertainties. We begin by giving an insight about robust optimization. Next, we detail how to deal with probabilistic constraints in optimization, the so called the reliability based design. Subsequently, we present the risk optimization approach, which includes the expected costs of failure in the objective function. After that the basic description of each approach is given, the projects developed by CORE are presented. Finally, the main current topic of research of CORE is described.

  11. Optimizing production under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend

    This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept...... of state-contingent production functions and a definition of inputs including both sort of input, activity and alloca-tion technology. It also analyses production decisions where production is combined with trading in state-contingent claims such as insurance contracts. The final part discusses...

  12. Commonplaces and social uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Inger

    2008-01-01

    This article explores the concept of uncertainty in four focus group discussions about genetically modified food. In the discussions, members of the general public interact with food biotechnology scientists while negotiating their attitudes towards genetic engineering. Their discussions offer...... an example of risk discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature (Myers 2004: 81). My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes (Barton 1999) and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating...

  13. Principles of Uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Kadane, Joseph B

    2011-01-01

    An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics -- the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discus

  14. Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel GARRIDO

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.

  15. The method of belief scales as a means for dealing with uncertainty in tough regulatory decisions.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilch, Martin M.

    2005-10-01

    Modeling and simulation is playing an increasing role in supporting tough regulatory decisions, which are typically characterized by variabilities and uncertainties in the scenarios, input conditions, failure criteria, model parameters, and even model form. Variability exists when there is a statistically significant database that is fully relevant to the application. Uncertainty, on the other hand, is characterized by some degree of ignorance. A simple algebraic problem was used to illustrate how various risk methodologies address variability and uncertainty in a regulatory context. These traditional risk methodologies include probabilistic methods (including frequensic and Bayesian perspectives) and second-order methods where variabilities and uncertainties are treated separately. Representing uncertainties with (subjective) probability distributions and using probabilistic methods to propagate subjective distributions can lead to results that are not logically consistent with available knowledge and that may not be conservative. The Method of Belief Scales (MBS) is developed as a means to logically aggregate uncertain input information and to propagate that information through the model to a set of results that are scrutable, easily interpretable by the nonexpert, and logically consistent with the available input information. The MBS, particularly in conjunction with sensitivity analyses, has the potential to be more computationally efficient than other risk methodologies. The regulatory language must be tailored to the specific risk methodology if ambiguity and conflict are to be avoided.

  16. A probabilistic approach to cost and duration uncertainties in environmental decisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

    1996-01-01

    Sandia National Laboratories has developed a method for analyzing life-cycle costs using probabilistic cost forecasting and utility theory to determine the most cost-effective alternatives for safe interim storage of radioactive materials. The method explicitly incorporates uncertainties in cost and storage duration by (1) treating uncertain component costs as random variables represented by probability distributions, (2) treating uncertain durations as chance nodes in a decision tree, and (3) using stochastic simulation tools to generate life-cycle cost forecasts for each storage alternative. The method applies utility functions to the forecasted costs to incorporate the decision maker's risk preferences, making it possible to compare alternatives on the basis of both cost and cost utility. Finally, the method is used to help identify key contributors to the uncertainty in forecasted costs to focus efforts aimed at reducing cost uncertainties. Where significant cost and duration uncertainties exist, and where programmatic decisions must be made despite these uncertainties, probabilistic forecasting techniques can yield important insights into decision alternatives, especially when used as part of a larger decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. Although the method is built around an interim storage example, it is potentially applicable to many other environmental decision problems

  17. Impacts of Korea's Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwon Sik Kim

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of two types of uncertainty related to the real effective exchange rate (REER in Korea for export trends. To decompose uncertainties into two types of component, I propose an advanced generalized Markov switching model, as developed by Hamilton (1989 and then expanded by Kim and Kim (1996. The proposed model is useful in uncovering two sources of uncertainty: the permanent component of REER and the purely transitory component. I think that the two types of uncertainties have a different effect on export trends in Korea. The transitory component of REER has no effect on the export trend at 5-percent significance, but the permanent component has an effect at this level. In addition, the degree of uncertainty, consisting of low, medium and high uncertainty in the permanent component, and low, medium and high uncertainty in transitory component of REER, also has different effects on export trends in Korea. Only high uncertainty in permanent components effects export trends. The results show that when the policy authority intends to prevent the shrinkage of exports due to the deepening of uncertainties in the foreign exchange market, the economic impacts of its intervention could appear differently according to the characteristics and degree of the uncertainties. Therefore, they imply that its economic measures, which could not grasp the sources of uncertainties properly, may even bring economic costs.

  18. IAEA CRP on HTGR Uncertainties in Modeling: Assessment of Phase I Lattice to Core Model Uncertainties

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rouxelin, Pascal Nicolas [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Strydom, Gerhard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    II 1a. The steady state core calculations were simulated with the INL coupled-code system known as the Parallel and Highly Innovative Simulation for INL Code System (PHISICS) and the system thermal-hydraulics code known as the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP) 5 3D using the nuclear data libraries previously generated with NEWT. It was observed that significant differences in terms of multiplication factor and neutron flux exist between the various permutations of the Phase I super-cell lattice calculations. The use of these cross section libraries only leads to minor changes in the Phase II core simulation results for fresh fuel but shows significantly larger discrepancies for spent fuel cores. Furthermore, large incongruities were found between the SCALE NEWT and KENO VI results for the super cells, and while some trends could be identified, a final conclusion on this issue could not yet be reached. This report will be revised in mid 2016 with more detailed analyses of the super-cell problems and their effects on the core models, using the latest version of SCALE (6.2). The super-cell models seem to show substantial improvements in terms of neutron flux as compared to single-block models, particularly at thermal energies.

  19. Modeling for waste management associated with environmental-impact abatement under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, P; Li, Y P; Huang, G H; Zhang, J L

    2015-04-01

    Municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment can generate significant amounts of pollutants, and thus pose a risk on human health. Besides, in MSW management, various uncertainties exist in the related costs, impact factors, and objectives, which can affect the optimization processes and the decision schemes generated. In this study, a life cycle assessment-based interval-parameter programming (LCA-IPP) method is developed for MSW management associated with environmental-impact abatement under uncertainty. The LCA-IPP can effectively examine the environmental consequences based on a number of environmental impact categories (i.e., greenhouse gas equivalent, acid gas emissions, and respiratory inorganics), through analyzing each life cycle stage and/or major contributing process related to various MSW management activities. It can also tackle uncertainties existed in the related costs, impact factors, and objectives and expressed as interval numbers. Then, the LCA-IPP method is applied to MSW management for the City of Beijing, the capital of China, where energy consumptions and six environmental parameters [i.e., CO2, CO, CH4, NOX, SO2, inhalable particle (PM10)] are used as systematic tool to quantify environmental releases in entire life cycle stage of waste collection, transportation, treatment, and disposal of. Results associated with system cost, environmental impact, and the related policy implication are generated and analyzed. Results can help identify desired alternatives for managing MSW flows, which has advantages in providing compromised schemes under an integrated consideration of economic efficiency and environmental impact under uncertainty.

  20. Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

    2015-08-01

    The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

  1. Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

  2. Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K

    2017-12-01

    Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

  3. Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.

    2011-01-01

    In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.

  4. Probabilistic risk assessment for new and existing chemicals: Example calculations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager T; Hollander HA den; Janssen GB; Poel P van der; Rikken MGJ; Vermeire TG; ECO; CSR; LAE; CSR

    2000-01-01

    In the risk assessment methods for new and existing chemicals in the EU, "risk" is characterised by means of the deterministic quotient of exposure and effects (PEC/PNEC or Margin of Safety). From a scientific viewpoint, the uncertainty in the risk quotient should be accounted for explicitly in the

  5. Neural Mechanisms of Updating under Reducible and Irreducible Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Kenji; Hsu, Ming

    2017-07-19

    Adaptive decision making depends on an agent's ability to use environmental signals to reduce uncertainty. However, because of multiple types of uncertainty, agents must take into account not only the extent to which signals violate prior expectations but also whether uncertainty can be reduced in the first place. Here we studied how human brains of both sexes respond to signals under conditions of reducible and irreducible uncertainty. We show behaviorally that subjects' value updating was sensitive to the reducibility of uncertainty, and could be quantitatively characterized by a Bayesian model where agents ignore expectancy violations that do not update beliefs or values. Using fMRI, we found that neural processes underlying belief and value updating were separable from responses to expectancy violation, and that reducibility of uncertainty in value modulated connections from belief-updating regions to value-updating regions. Together, these results provide insights into how agents use knowledge about uncertainty to make better decisions while ignoring mere expectancy violation. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT To make good decisions, a person must observe the environment carefully, and use these observations to reduce uncertainty about consequences of actions. Importantly, uncertainty should not be reduced purely based on how surprising the observations are, particularly because in some cases uncertainty is not reducible. Here we show that the human brain indeed reduces uncertainty adaptively by taking into account the nature of uncertainty and ignoring mere surprise. Behaviorally, we show that human subjects reduce uncertainty in a quasioptimal Bayesian manner. Using fMRI, we characterize brain regions that may be involved in uncertainty reduction, as well as the network they constitute, and dissociate them from brain regions that respond to mere surprise. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/376972-11$15.00/0.

  6. Advanced Approach to Consider Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties for Integral Accident Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peschke, Joerg; Kloos, Martina

    2013-01-01

    The use of best-estimate codes together with realistic input data generally requires that all potentially important epistemic uncertainties which may affect the code prediction are considered in order to get an adequate quantification of the epistemic uncertainty of the prediction as an expression of the existing imprecise knowledge. To facilitate the performance of the required epistemic uncertainty analyses, methods and corresponding software tools are available like, for instance, the GRS-tool SUSA (Software for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis). However, for risk-informed decision-making, the restriction on epistemic uncertainties alone is not enough. Transients and accident scenarios are also affected by aleatory uncertainties which are due to the unpredictable nature of phenomena. It is essential that aleatory uncertainties are taken into account as well, not only in a simplified and supposedly conservative way but as realistic as possible. The additional consideration of aleatory uncertainties, for instance, on the behavior of the technical system, the performance of plant operators, or on the behavior of the physical process provides a quantification of probabilistically significant accident sequences. Only if a safety analysis is able to account for both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in a realistic manner, it can provide a well-founded risk-informed answer for decision-making. At GRS, an advanced probabilistic dynamics method was developed to address this problem and to provide a more realistic modeling and assessment of transients and accident scenarios. This method allows for an integral simulation of complex dynamic processes particularly taking into account interactions between the plant dynamics as simulated by a best-estimate code, the dynamics of operator actions and the influence of epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. In this paper, the GRS method MCDET (Monte Carlo Dynamic Event Tree) for probabilistic dynamics analysis is explained

  7. Managing Uncertainty in Water Infrastructure Design Using Info-gap Robustness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irias, X.; Cicala, D.

    2013-12-01

    Info-gap theory, a tool for managing deep uncertainty, can be of tremendous value for design of water systems in areas of high seismic risk. Maintaining reliable water service in those areas is subject to significant uncertainties including uncertainty of seismic loading, unknown seismic performance of infrastructure, uncertain costs of innovative seismic-resistant construction, unknown costs to repair seismic damage, unknown societal impacts from downtime, and more. Practically every major earthquake that strikes a population center reveals additional knowledge gaps. In situations of such deep uncertainty, info-gap can offer advantages over traditional approaches, whether deterministic approaches that use empirical safety factors to address the uncertainties involved, or probabilistic methods that attempt to characterize various stochastic properties and target a compromise between cost and reliability. The reason is that in situations of deep uncertainty, it may not be clear what safety factor would be reasonable, or even if any safety factor is sufficient to address the uncertainties, and we may lack data to characterize the situation probabilistically. Info-gap is a tool that recognizes up front that our best projection of the future may be wrong. Thus, rather than seeking a solution that is optimal for that projection, info-gap seeks a solution that works reasonably well for all plausible conditions. In other words, info-gap seeks solutions that are robust in the face of uncertainty. Info-gap has been used successfully across a wide range of disciplines including climate change science, project management, and structural design. EBMUD is currently using info-gap to help it gain insight into possible solutions for providing reliable water service to an island community within its service area. The island, containing about 75,000 customers, is particularly vulnerable to water supply disruption from earthquakes, since it has negligible water storage and is

  8. The impact of inflation uncertainty on interest rates

    OpenAIRE

    Cheong, Chongcheul; Kim, Gi-Hong; Podivinsky, Jan M.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, the impact of inflation uncertainty on interest rates is investigated for the case of the U.S. three-month Treasury bill rate. We emphasize how consistentOLS estimation can be applied to an empirical equation which includes a proxy variable of inflation uncertainty measured by an ARCH-type model. A significant negative relationship between the two variables is provided. This evidence is contrasted with the view of the inflation risk premium in which inflation uncertainty positi...

  9. Fundamental uncertainty and stock market volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2008-01-01

    We provide empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from participants in the Survey of Professional Forecasters over the period 1969 to 1996.

  10. Stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arnold, I.J.M.; Vrugt, E.B.

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides empirical evidence on the link between stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty. We show that US stock market volatility is significantly related to the dispersion in economic forecasts from SPF survey participants over the period from 1969 to 1996. This link is much

  11. Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redei, Miklos

    1987-01-01

    The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs

  12. Uncertainty as Certaint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzinger, Tom

    I am trying to make money in the biotech industry from complexity science. And I am doing it with inspiration that I picked up on the edge of Appalachia spending time with June Holley and ACEnet when I was a Wall Street Journal reporter. I took some of those ideas to Pittsburgh, in biotechnology, in a completely private setting with an economic development focus, but also with a mission t o return profit to private capital. And we are doing that. I submit as a hypothesis, something we are figuring out in the post- industrial era, that business evolves. It is not the definition of business, but business critically involves the design of systems in which uncertainty is treated as a certainty. That is what I have seen and what I have tried to put into practice.

  13. Orientation and uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, H.P.; Hennen, L.

    1990-01-01

    The authors report on the results of three representative surveys that made a closer inquiry into perceptions and valuations of information and information sources concering Chernobyl. If turns out that the information sources are generally considered little trustworthy. This was generally attributable to the interpretation of the events being tied to attitudes in the atmonic energy issue. The greatest credit was given to television broadcasting. The authors summarize their discourse as follows: There is good reason to interpret the widespread uncertainty after Chernobyl as proof of the fact that large parts of the population are prepared and willing to assume a critical stance towards information and prefer to draw their information from various sources representing different positions. (orig.) [de

  14. DOD ELAP Lab Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    ISO / IEC   17025  Inspection Bodies – ISO / IEC  17020  RMPs – ISO  Guide 34 (Reference...certify to :  ISO  9001 (QMS),  ISO  14001 (EMS),   TS 16949 (US Automotive)  etc. 2 3 DoD QSM 4.2 standard   ISO / IEC   17025 :2005  Each has uncertainty...IPV6, NLLAP, NEFAP  TRAINING Programs  Certification Bodies – ISO / IEC  17021  Accreditation for  Management System 

  15. Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

    2004-01-01

    . The project partnership aims (composed by 7 partners in 5 countries, thus covering a real European spread in high tech production technology) to develop and implement an advanced e-learning system that integrates contributions from quite different disciplines into a user-centred approach that strictly....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e-learning......This report is made as a part of the project ‘Metro-E-Learn: European e-Learning in Manufacturing Metrology’, an EU project under the program SOCRATES MINERVA (ODL and ICT in Education), Contract No: 101434-CP-1-2002-1-DE-MINERVA, coordinated by Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen...

  16. Sustainability and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2007-01-01

    The widely used concept of sustainability is seldom precisely defined, and its clarification involves making up one's mind about a range of difficult questions. One line of research (bottom-up) takes sustaining a system over time as its starting point and then infers prescriptions from...... this requirement. Another line (top-down) takes an economical interpretation of the Brundtland Commission's suggestion that the present generation's needsatisfaction should not compromise the need-satisfaction of future generations as its starting point. It then measures sustainability at the level of society...... a clarified ethical goal, disagreements can arise. At present we do not know what substitutions will be possible in the future. This uncertainty clearly affects the prescriptions that follow from the measure of sustainability. Consequently, decisions about how to make future agriculture sustainable...

  17. Robustness of dynamic systems with parameter uncertainties

    CERN Document Server

    Balemi, S; Truöl, W

    1992-01-01

    Robust Control is one of the fastest growing and promising areas of research today. In many practical systems there exist uncertainties which have to be considered in the analysis and design of control systems. In the last decade methods were developed for dealing with dynamic systems with unstructured uncertainties such as HOO_ and £I-optimal control. For systems with parameter uncertainties, the seminal paper of V. L. Kharitonov has triggered a large amount of very promising research. An international workshop dealing with all aspects of robust control was successfully organized by S. P. Bhattacharyya and L. H. Keel in San Antonio, Texas, USA in March 1991. We organized the second international workshop in this area in Ascona, Switzer­ land in April 1992. However, this second workshop was restricted to robust control of dynamic systems with parameter uncertainties with the objective to concentrate on some aspects of robust control. This book contains a collection of papers presented at the International W...

  18. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  19. Political uncertainty and firm risk in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danglun Luo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The political uncertainty surrounded by the turnover of government officials has a major impact on local economies and local firms. This paper investigates the relationship between the turnover of prefecture-city officials and the inherent risk faced by local firms in China. Using data from 1999 to 2012, we find that prefecture-city official turnovers significantly increased firm risk. Our results show that the political risk was mitigated when new prefecture-city officials were well connected with their provincial leaders. In addition, the impact of political uncertainty was more pronounced for regulated firms and firms residing in provinces with low market openness.

  20. An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2009-01-01

    Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

  1. Uncertainty analysis of neutron transport calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oka, Y.; Furuta, K.; Kondo, S.

    1987-01-01

    A cross section sensitivity-uncertainty analysis code, SUSD was developed. The code calculates sensitivity coefficients for one and two-dimensional transport problems based on the first order perturbation theory. Variance and standard deviation of detector responses or design parameters can be obtained using cross section covariance matrix. The code is able to perform sensitivity-uncertainty analysis for secondary neutron angular distribution(SAD) and secondary neutron energy distribution(SED). Covariances of 6 Li and 7 Li neutron cross sections in JENDL-3PR1 were evaluated including SAD and SED. Covariances of Fe and Be were also evaluated. The uncertainty of tritium breeding ratio, fast neutron leakage flux and neutron heating was analysed on four types of blanket concepts for a commercial tokamak fusion reactor. The uncertainty of tritium breeding ratio was less than 6 percent. Contribution from SAD/SED uncertainties are significant for some parameters. Formulas to estimate the errors of numerical solution of the transport equation were derived based on the perturbation theory. This method enables us to deterministically estimate the numerical errors due to iterative solution, spacial discretization and Legendre polynomial expansion of transfer cross-sections. The calculational errors of the tritium breeding ratio and the fast neutron leakage flux of the fusion blankets were analysed. (author)

  2. Uncertainties in Organ Burdens Estimated from PAS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Bone, T.R.

    2004-01-01

    To calculate committed effective dose equivalent, one needs to know the quantity of the radionuclide in all significantly irradiated organs (the organ burden) as a function of time following the intake. There are two major sources of uncertainty in an organ burden estimated from personal air sampling (PAS) data: (1) The uncertainty in going from the exposure measured with the PAS to the quantity of aerosol inhaled by the individual, and (2) The uncertainty in going from the intake to the organ burdens at any given time, taking into consideration the biological variability of the biokinetic models from person to person (interperson variability) and in one person over time (intra-person variability). We have been using biokinetic modeling methods developed by researchers at the University of Florida to explore the impact of inter-person variability on the uncertainty of organ burdens estimated from PAS data. These initial studies suggest that the uncertainties are so large that PAS might be considered to be a qualitative (rather than quantitative) technique. These results indicate that more studies should be performed to properly classify the reliability and usefulness of using PAS monitoring data to estimate organ burdens, organ dose, and ultimately CEDE

  3. An evaluation of uncertainties in radioecological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffmann, F.O.; Little, C.A.; Miller, C.W.; Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Rupp, E.M.; Shor, R.W.; Schaeffer, D.L.; Baes, C.F. III

    1978-01-01

    The paper presents results of analyses for seven selected parameters commonly used in environmental radiological assessment models, assuming that the available data are representative of the true distribution of parameter values and that their respective distributions are lognormal. Estimates of the most probable, median, mean, and 99th percentile for each parameter are fiven and compared to U.S. NRC default values. The regulatory default values are generally greater than the median values for the selected parameters, but some are associated with percentiles significantly less than the 50th. The largest uncertainties appear to be associated with aquatic bioaccumulation factors for fresh water fish. Approximately one order of magnitude separates median values and values of the 99th percentile. The uncertainty is also estimated for the annual dose rate predicted by a multiplicative chain model for the transport of molecular iodine-131 via the air-pasture-cow-milk-child's thyroid pathway. The value for the 99th percentile is ten times larger than the median value of the predicted dose normalized for a given air concentration of 131 I 2 . About 72% of the uncertainty in this model is contributed by the dose conversion factor and the milk transfer coefficient. Considering the difficulties in obtaining a reliable quantification of the true uncertainties in model predictions, methods for taking these uncertainties into account when determining compliance with regulatory statutes are discussed. (orig./HP) [de

  4. Illness uncertainty and treatment motivation in type 2 diabetes patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apóstolo, João Luís Alves; Viveiros, Catarina Sofia Castro; Nunes, Helena Isabel Ribeiro; Domingues, Helena Raquel Faustino

    2007-01-01

    To characterize the uncertainty in illness and the motivation for treatment and to evaluate the existing relation between these variables in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Descriptive, correlational study, using a sample of 62 individuals in diabetes consultation sessions. The Uncertainty Stress Scale and the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire were used. The individuals with type 2 diabetes present low levels of uncertainty in illness and a high motivation for treatment, with a stronger intrinsic than extrinsic motivation. A negative correlation was verified between the uncertainty in the face of the prognosis and treatment and the intrinsic motivation. These individuals are already adapted, acting according to the meanings they attribute to illness. Uncertainty can function as a threat, intervening negatively in the attribution of meaning to the events related to illness and in the process of adaptation and motivation to adhere to treatment. Intrinsic motivation seems to be essential to adhere to treatment.

  5. On Commitments and Other Uncertainty Reduction Tools in Joint Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael John

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we evaluate the proposal that a central function of commitments within joint action is to reduce various kinds of uncertainty, and that this accounts for the prevalence of commitments in joint action. While this idea is prima facie attractive, we argue that it faces two serious problems. First, commitments can only reduce uncertainty if they are credible, and accounting for the credibility of commitments proves not to be straightforward. Second, there are many other ways in which uncertainty is commonly reduced within joint actions, which raises the possibility that commitments may be superfluous. Nevertheless, we argue that the existence of these alternative uncertainty reduction processes does not make commitments superfluous after all but, rather, helps to explain how commitments may contribute in various ways to uncertainty reduction.

  6. Do oil shocks predict economic policy uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehman, Mobeen Ur

    2018-05-01

    Oil price fluctuations have influential role in global economic policies for developed as well as emerging countries. I investigate the role of international oil prices disintegrated into structural (i) oil supply shock, (ii) aggregate demand shock and (iii) oil market specific demand shocks, based on the work of Kilian (2009) using structural VAR framework on economic policies uncertainty of sampled markets. Economic policy uncertainty, due to its non-linear behavior is modeled in a regime switching framework with disintegrated structural oil shocks. Our results highlight that Indian, Spain and Japanese economic policy uncertainty responds to the global oil price shocks, however aggregate demand shocks fail to induce any change. Oil specific demand shocks are significant only for China and India in high volatility state.

  7. Essays on model uncertainty in financial models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Jing

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation studies model uncertainty, particularly in financial models. It consists of two empirical chapters and one theoretical chapter. The first empirical chapter (Chapter 2) classifies model uncertainty into parameter uncertainty and misspecification uncertainty. It investigates the

  8. A new uncertainty importance measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.

    2007-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameters is present in many risk assessment problems and leads to uncertainty in model predictions. In this work, we introduce a global sensitivity indicator which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output (moment independence) and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. We discuss its mathematical properties and highlight the differences between the present indicator, variance-based uncertainty importance measures and a moment independent sensitivity indicator previously introduced in the literature. Numerical results are discussed with application to the probabilistic risk assessment model on which Iman [A matrix-based approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for fault trees. Risk Anal 1987;7(1):22-33] first introduced uncertainty importance measures

  9. Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Fantke, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty is always there and LCA is no exception to that. The presence of uncertainties of different types and from numerous sources in LCA results is a fact, but managing them allows to quantify and improve the precision of a study and the robustness of its conclusions. LCA practice sometimes...... suffers from an imbalanced perception of uncertainties, justifying modelling choices and omissions. Identifying prevalent misconceptions around uncertainties in LCA is a central goal of this chapter, aiming to establish a positive approach focusing on the advantages of uncertainty management. The main...... objectives of this chapter are to learn how to deal with uncertainty in the context of LCA, how to quantify it, interpret and use it, and how to communicate it. The subject is approached more holistically than just focusing on relevant statistical methods or purely mathematical aspects. This chapter...

  10. Additivity of entropic uncertainty relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Schwonnek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We consider the uncertainty between two pairs of local projective measurements performed on a multipartite system. We show that the optimal bound in any linear uncertainty relation, formulated in terms of the Shannon entropy, is additive. This directly implies, against naive intuition, that the minimal entropic uncertainty can always be realized by fully separable states. Hence, in contradiction to proposals by other authors, no entanglement witness can be constructed solely by comparing the attainable uncertainties of entangled and separable states. However, our result gives rise to a huge simplification for computing global uncertainty bounds as they now can be deduced from local ones. Furthermore, we provide the natural generalization of the Maassen and Uffink inequality for linear uncertainty relations with arbitrary positive coefficients.

  11. Sparse grid-based polynomial chaos expansion for aerodynamics of an airfoil with uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaojing WU

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The uncertainties can generate fluctuations with aerodynamic characteristics. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ is applied to compute its impact on the aerodynamic characteristics. In addition, the contribution of each uncertainty to aerodynamic characteristics should be computed by uncertainty sensitivity analysis. Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos (NIPC has been successfully applied to uncertainty quantification and uncertainty sensitivity analysis. However, the non-intrusive polynomial chaos method becomes inefficient as the number of random variables adopted to describe uncertainties increases. This deficiency becomes significant in stochastic aerodynamic analysis considering the geometric uncertainty because the description of geometric uncertainty generally needs many parameters. To solve the deficiency, a Sparse Grid-based Polynomial Chaos (SGPC expansion is used to do uncertainty quantification and sensitivity analysis for stochastic aerodynamic analysis considering geometric and operational uncertainties. It is proved that the method is more efficient than non-intrusive polynomial chaos and Monte Carlo Simulation (MSC method for the stochastic aerodynamic analysis. By uncertainty quantification, it can be learnt that the flow characteristics of shock wave and boundary layer separation are sensitive to the geometric uncertainty in transonic region. The uncertainty sensitivity analysis reveals the individual and coupled effects among the uncertainty parameters. Keywords: Non-intrusive polynomial chaos, Sparse grid, Stochastic aerodynamic analysis, Uncertainty sensitivity analysis, Uncertainty quantification

  12. Decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This status report on Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). The report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems. (authors)

  13. The Uncertainty of Measurement Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ambrus, A. [Hungarian Food Safety Office, Budapest (Hungary)

    2009-07-15

    Factors affecting the uncertainty of measurement are explained, basic statistical formulae given, and the theoretical concept explained in the context of pesticide formulation analysis. Practical guidance is provided on how to determine individual uncertainty components within an analytical procedure. An extended and comprehensive table containing the relevant mathematical/statistical expressions elucidates the relevant underlying principles. Appendix I provides a practical elaborated example on measurement uncertainty estimation, above all utilizing experimental repeatability and reproducibility laboratory data. (author)

  14. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  15. Uncertainty quantification in resonance absorption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    We assess the uncertainty in the resonance escape probability due to uncertainty in the neutron and radiation line widths for the first 21 resonances in 232 Th as given by . Simulation, quadrature and polynomial chaos methods are used and the resonance data are assumed to obey a beta distribution. We find the uncertainty in the total resonance escape probability to be the equivalent, in reactivity, of 75–130 pcm. Also shown are pdfs of the resonance escape probability for each resonance and the variation of the uncertainty with temperature. The viability of the polynomial chaos expansion method is clearly demonstrated.

  16. Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

  17. Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shull, A.H.

    1997-01-01

    An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

  18. Uncertainty in the inelastic resonant scattering assisted by phonons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, N.; Garcia-Sanz, J.; Solana, J.

    1977-01-01

    We have analyzed the inelastic minima observed in new results of He atoms scattered from LiF(001) surfaces. This is done considering bound state resonance processes assisted by phonons. The analysis presents large uncertainties. In the range of uncertainty, we find two ''possible'' bands associated with the vibrations of F - and Li + , respectively. Many more experimental data are necessary to confirm the existence of these processes

  19. The role of general relativity in the uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padmanabhan, T.

    1986-01-01

    The role played by general relativity in quantum mechanics (especially as regards the uncertainty principle) is investigated. It is confirmed that the validity of time-energy uncertainty does depend on gravitational time dilation. It is also shown that there exists an intrinsic lower bound to the accuracy with which acceleration due to gravity can be measured. The motion of equivalence principle in quantum mechanics is clarified. (author)

  20. Nuclear Data Uncertainty Quantification: Past, Present and Future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.

    2015-01-01

    An historical overview is provided of the mathematical foundations of uncertainty quantification and the roles played in the more recent past by nuclear data uncertainties in nuclear data evaluations and nuclear applications. Significant advances that have established the mathematical framework for contemporary nuclear data evaluation methods, as well as the use of uncertainty information in nuclear data evaluation and nuclear applications, are described. This is followed by a brief examination of the current status concerning nuclear data evaluation methodology, covariance data generation, and the application of evaluated nuclear data uncertainties in contemporary nuclear technology. A few possible areas for future investigation of this subject are also suggested

  1. Nuclear Data Uncertainty Quantification: Past, Present and Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, D. L.

    2015-01-01

    An historical overview is provided of the mathematical foundations of uncertainty quantification and the roles played in the more recent past by nuclear data uncertainties in nuclear data evaluations and nuclear applications. Significant advances that have established the mathematical framework for contemporary nuclear data evaluation methods, as well as the use of uncertainty information in nuclear data evaluation and nuclear applications, are described. This is followed by a brief examination of the current status concerning nuclear data evaluation methodology, covariance data generation, and the application of evaluated nuclear data uncertainties in contemporary nuclear technology. A few possible areas for future investigation of this subject are also suggested.

  2. CHARACTERIZING AND PROPAGATING MODELING UNCERTAINTIES IN PHOTOMETRICALLY DERIVED REDSHIFT DISTRIBUTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abrahamse, Augusta; Knox, Lloyd; Schmidt, Samuel; Thorman, Paul; Anthony Tyson, J.; Zhan Hu

    2011-01-01

    The uncertainty in the redshift distributions of galaxies has a significant potential impact on the cosmological parameter values inferred from multi-band imaging surveys. The accuracy of the photometric redshifts measured in these surveys depends not only on the quality of the flux data, but also on a number of modeling assumptions that enter into both the training set and spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting methods of photometric redshift estimation. In this work we focus on the latter, considering two types of modeling uncertainties: uncertainties in the SED template set and uncertainties in the magnitude and type priors used in a Bayesian photometric redshift estimation method. We find that SED template selection effects dominate over magnitude prior errors. We introduce a method for parameterizing the resulting ignorance of the redshift distributions, and for propagating these uncertainties to uncertainties in cosmological parameters.

  3. Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties for fusion power measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sjöstrand Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Neutron measurements using neutron activation systems are an essential part of the diagnostic system at large fusion machines such as JET and ITER. Nuclear data is used to infer the neutron yield. Consequently, high-quality nuclear data is essential for the proper determination of the neutron yield and fusion power. However, uncertainties due to nuclear data are not fully taken into account in uncertainty analysis for neutron yield calibrations using activation foils. This paper investigates the neutron yield uncertainty due to nuclear data using the so-called Total Monte Carlo Method. The work is performed using a detailed MCNP model of the JET fusion machine; the uncertainties due to the cross-sections and angular distributions in JET structural materials, as well as the activation cross-sections in the activation foils, are analysed. It is found that a significant contribution to the neutron yield uncertainty can come from uncertainties in the nuclear data.

  4. Some target assay uncertainties for passive neutron coincidence counting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ensslin, N.; Langner, D.G.; Menlove, H.O.; Miller, M.C.; Russo, P.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper provides some target assay uncertainties for passive neutron coincidence counting of plutonium metal, oxide, mixed oxide, and scrap and waste. The target values are based in part on past user experience and in part on the estimated results from new coincidence counting techniques that are under development. The paper summarizes assay error sources and the new coincidence techniques, and recommends the technique that is likely to yield the lowest assay uncertainty for a given material type. These target assay uncertainties are intended to be useful for NDA instrument selection and assay variance propagation studies for both new and existing facilities. 14 refs., 3 tabs

  5. Implicit knowledge of visual uncertainty guides decisions with asymmetric outcomes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whiteley, Louise Emma; Sahani, Maneesh

    2008-01-01

    under conditions of uncertainty. Here we show that human observers performing a simple visual choice task under an externally imposed loss function approach the optimal strategy, as defined by Bayesian probability and decision theory (Berger, 1985; Cox, 1961). In concert with earlier work, this suggests...... are pre-existing, widespread, and can be propagated to decision-making areas of the brain....... that observers possess a model of their internal uncertainty and can utilize this model in the neural computations that underlie their behavior (Knill & Pouget, 2004). In our experiment, optimal behavior requires that observers integrate the loss function with an estimate of their internal uncertainty rather...

  6. Uncertainties as Barriers for Knowledge Sharing with Enterprise Social Media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trier, Matthias; Fung, Magdalene; Hansen, Abigail

    2017-01-01

    become a barrier for the participants’ adoption. There is only limited existing research studying the types of uncertainties that employees perceive and their impact on knowledge transfer via social media. To address this gap, this article presents a qualitative interview-based study of the adoption...... of the Enterprise Social Media tool Yammer for knowledge sharing in a large global organization. We identify and categorize nine uncertainties that were perceived as barriers by the respondents. The study revealed that the uncertainty types play an important role in affecting employees’ participation...

  7. Climate Certainties and Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morel, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    In issue 380 of Futuribles in December 2011, Antonin Pottier analysed in detail the workings of what is today termed 'climate scepticism' - namely the propensity of certain individuals to contest the reality of climate change on the basis of pseudo-scientific arguments. He emphasized particularly that what fuels the debate on climate change is, largely, the degree of uncertainty inherent in the consequences to be anticipated from observation of the facts, not the description of the facts itself. In his view, the main aim of climate sceptics is to block the political measures for combating climate change. However, since they do not admit to this political posture, they choose instead to deny the scientific reality. This month, Futuribles complements this socio-psychological analysis of climate-sceptical discourse with an - in this case, wholly scientific - analysis of what we know (or do not know) about climate change on our planet. Pierre Morel gives a detailed account of the state of our knowledge in the climate field and what we are able to predict in the medium/long-term. After reminding us of the influence of atmospheric meteorological processes on the climate, he specifies the extent of global warming observed since 1850 and the main origin of that warming, as revealed by the current state of knowledge: the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. He then describes the changes in meteorological regimes (showing also the limits of climate simulation models), the modifications of hydrological regimes, and also the prospects for rises in sea levels. He also specifies the mechanisms that may potentially amplify all these phenomena and the climate disasters that might ensue. Lastly, he shows what are the scientific data that cannot be disregarded, the consequences of which are now inescapable (melting of the ice-caps, rises in sea level etc.), the only remaining uncertainty in this connection being the date at which these things will happen. 'In this

  8. CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.

    1989-01-01

    Best Estimate computer codes have been accepted by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission as an optional tool for performing safety analysis related to the licensing and regulation of current nuclear reactors producing commercial electrical power, providing their uncertainty is quantified. In support of this policy change, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated an uncertainty quantification methodology called CSAU. The primary use of the CSAU methodology is to quantify safety margins for existing designs; however, the methodology can also serve an equally important role in advanced reactor research for plants not yet built. This paper describes the CSAU methodology, at the generic process level, and provides the general principles whereby it may be applied to evaluations of advanced reactor designs

  9. Investment choice under uncertainty: A review essay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trifunović Dejan

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available An investment opportunity whose return is perfectly predictable, hardly exists at all. Instead, investor makes his decisions under conditions of uncertainty. Theory of expected utility is the main analytical tool for description of choice under uncertainty. Critics of the theory contend that individuals have bounded rationality and that the theory of expected utility is not correct. When agents are faced with risky decisions they behave differently, conditional on their attitude towards risk. They can be risk loving, risk averse or risk neutral. In order to make an investment decision it is necessary to compare probability distribution functions of returns. Investment decision making is much simpler if one uses expected values and variances instead of probability distribution functions.

  10. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results

  11. Incorporating forecast uncertainties into EENS for wind turbine studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toh, G.K.; Gooi, H.B. [School of EEE, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2011-02-15

    The rapid increase in wind power generation around the world has stimulated the development of applicable technologies to model the uncertainties of wind power resulting from the stochastic nature of wind and fluctuations of demand for integration of wind turbine generators (WTGs). In this paper the load and wind power forecast errors are integrated into the expected energy not served (EENS) formulation through determination of probabilities using the normal distribution approach. The effects of forecast errors and wind energy penetration in the power system are traversed. The impact of wind energy penetration on system reliability, total cost for energy and reserve procurement is then studied for a conventional power system. The results show a degradation of system reliability with significant wind energy penetration in the generation system. This work provides a useful insight into system reliability and economics for the independent system operator (ISO) to deploy energy/reserve providers when WTGs are integrated into the existing power system. (author)

  12. Uncertainties on lung doses from inhaled plutonium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puncher, Matthew; Birchall, Alan; Bull, Richard K

    2011-10-01

    In a recent epidemiological study, Bayesian uncertainties on lung doses have been calculated to determine lung cancer risk from occupational exposures to plutonium. These calculations used a revised version of the Human Respiratory Tract Model (HRTM) published by the ICRP. In addition to the Bayesian analyses, which give probability distributions of doses, point estimates of doses (single estimates without uncertainty) were also provided for that study using the existing HRTM as it is described in ICRP Publication 66; these are to be used in a preliminary analysis of risk. To infer the differences between the point estimates and Bayesian uncertainty analyses, this paper applies the methodology to former workers of the United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA), who constituted a subset of the study cohort. The resulting probability distributions of lung doses are compared with the point estimates obtained for each worker. It is shown that mean posterior lung doses are around two- to fourfold higher than point estimates and that uncertainties on doses vary over a wide range, greater than two orders of magnitude for some lung tissues. In addition, we demonstrate that uncertainties on the parameter values, rather than the model structure, are largely responsible for these effects. Of these it appears to be the parameters describing absorption from the lungs to blood that have the greatest impact on estimates of lung doses from urine bioassay. Therefore, accurate determination of the chemical form of inhaled plutonium and the absorption parameter values for these materials is important for obtaining reliable estimates of lung doses and hence risk from occupational exposures to plutonium.

  13. Ontological Proofs of Existence and Non-Existence

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hájek, Petr

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 90, č. 2 (2008), s. 257-262 ISSN 0039-3215 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100300503 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : ontological proofs * existence * non-existence * Gödel * Caramuel Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  14. Capital flight and the uncertainty of government policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hermes, C.L.M.; Lensink, B.W.

    This paper shows that policy uncertainty, measured by the uncertainty of budget deficits, tart payments, government consumption and the inflation rate, has a statistically significant positive impact on capital flight. This result remains robust after having applied stability tests. (C) 2001

  15. Sketching Uncertainty into Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribicic, H; Waser, J; Gurbat, R; Sadransky, B; Groller, M E

    2012-12-01

    In a variety of application areas, the use of simulation steering in decision making is limited at best. Research focusing on this problem suggests that most user interfaces are too complex for the end user. Our goal is to let users create and investigate multiple, alternative scenarios without the need for special simulation expertise. To simplify the specification of parameters, we move from a traditional manipulation of numbers to a sketch-based input approach. Users steer both numeric parameters and parameters with a spatial correspondence by sketching a change onto the rendering. Special visualizations provide immediate visual feedback on how the sketches are transformed into boundary conditions of the simulation models. Since uncertainty with respect to many intertwined parameters plays an important role in planning, we also allow the user to intuitively setup complete value ranges, which are then automatically transformed into ensemble simulations. The interface and the underlying system were developed in collaboration with experts in the field of flood management. The real-world data they have provided has allowed us to construct scenarios used to evaluate the system. These were presented to a variety of flood response personnel, and their feedback is discussed in detail in the paper. The interface was found to be intuitive and relevant, although a certain amount of training might be necessary.

  16. Uncertainty vs. Information (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2017-04-01

    Information theory is the branch of logic that describes how rational epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data (Knuth, 2005), and any logic of science is incomplete without such a theory. Developing a formal philosophy of science that recognizes this fact results in essentially trivial solutions to several longstanding problems are generally considered intractable, including: • Alleviating the need for any likelihood function or error model. • Derivation of purely logical falsification criteria for hypothesis testing. • Specification of a general quantitative method for process-level model diagnostics. More generally, I make the following arguments: 1. Model evaluation should not proceed by quantifying and/or reducing error or uncertainty, and instead should be approached as a problem of ensuring that our models contain as much information as our experimental data. I propose that the latter is the only question a scientist actually has the ability to ask. 2. Instead of building geophysical models as solutions to differential equations that represent conservation laws, we should build models as maximum entropy distributions constrained by conservation symmetries. This will allow us to derive predictive probabilities directly from first principles. Knuth, K. H. (2005) 'Lattice duality: The origin of probability and entropy', Neurocomputing, 67, pp. 245-274.

  17. Big data uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maugis, Pierre-André G

    2018-07-01

    Big data-the idea that an always-larger volume of information is being constantly recorded-suggests that new problems can now be subjected to scientific scrutiny. However, can classical statistical methods be used directly on big data? We analyze the problem by looking at two known pitfalls of big datasets. First, that they are biased, in the sense that they do not offer a complete view of the populations under consideration. Second, that they present a weak but pervasive level of dependence between all their components. In both cases we observe that the uncertainty of the conclusion obtained by statistical methods is increased when used on big data, either because of a systematic error (bias), or because of a larger degree of randomness (increased variance). We argue that the key challenge raised by big data is not only how to use big data to tackle new problems, but to develop tools and methods able to rigorously articulate the new risks therein. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  18. Uncertainty of inhalation dose coefficients for representative physical and chemical forms of iodine-131

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Richard Paul, III

    Releases of radioactive material have occurred at various Department of Energy (DOE) weapons facilities and facilities associated with the nuclear fuel cycle in the generation of electricity. Many different radionuclides have been released to the environment with resulting exposure of the population to these various sources of radioactivity. Radioiodine has been released from a number of these facilities and is a potential public health concern due to its physical and biological characteristics. Iodine exists as various isotopes, but our focus is on 131I due to its relatively long half-life, its prevalence in atmospheric releases and its contribution to offsite dose. The assumption of physical and chemical form is speculated to have a profound impact on the deposition of radioactive material within the respiratory tract. In the case of iodine, it has been shown that more than one type of physical and chemical form may be released to, or exist in, the environment; iodine can exist as a particle or as a gas. The gaseous species can be further segregated based on chemical form: elemental, inorganic, and organic iodides. Chemical compounds in each class are assumed to behave similarly with respect to biochemistry. Studies at Oak Ridge National Laboratories have demonstrated that 131I is released as a particulate, as well as in elemental, inorganic and organic chemical form. The internal dose estimate from 131I may be very different depending on the effect that chemical form has on fractional deposition, gas uptake, and clearance in the respiratory tract. There are many sources of uncertainty in the estimation of environmental dose including source term, airborne transport of radionuclides, and internal dosimetry. Knowledge of uncertainty in internal dosimetry is essential for estimating dose to members of the public and for determining total uncertainty in dose estimation. Important calculational steps in any lung model is regional estimation of deposition fractions

  19. Uncertainty during breast diagnostic evaluation: state of the science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Mariann

    2010-01-01

    To present the state of the science on uncertainty in relationship to the experiences of women undergoing diagnostic evaluation for suspected breast cancer. Published articles from Medline, CINAHL, PubMED, and PsycINFO from 1983-2008 using the following key words: breast biopsy, mammography, uncertainty, reframing, inner strength, and disruption. Fifty research studies were examined with all reporting the presence of anxiety persisting throughout the diagnostic evaluation until certitude is achieved through the establishment of a definitive diagnosis. Indirect determinants of uncertainty for women undergoing breast diagnostic evaluation include measures of anxiety, depression, social support, emotional responses, defense mechanisms, and the psychological impact of events. Understanding and influencing the uncertainty experience have been suggested to be key in relieving psychosocial distress and positively influencing future screening behaviors. Several studies examine correlational relationships among anxiety, selection of coping methods, and demographic factors that influence uncertainty. A gap exists in the literature with regard to the relationship of inner strength and uncertainty. Nurses can be invaluable in assisting women in coping with the uncertainty experience by providing positive communication and support. Nursing interventions should be designed and tested for their effects on uncertainty experienced by women undergoing a breast diagnostic evaluation.

  20. Calculation of uncertainties; Calculo de incertidumbres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diaz-Asencio, Misael [Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Cienfuegos (Cuba)

    2012-07-01

    One of the most important aspects in relation to the quality assurance in any analytical activity is the estimation of measurement uncertainty. There is general agreement that 'the expression of the result of a measurement is not complete without specifying its associated uncertainty'. An analytical process is the mechanism for obtaining methodological information (measurand) of a material system (population). This implies the need for the definition of the problem, the choice of methods for sampling and measurement and proper execution of these activities for obtaining information. The result of a measurement is only an approximation or estimate of the value of the measurand, which is complete only when accompanied by an estimate of the uncertainty of the analytical process. According to the 'Vocabulary of Basic and General Terms in Metrology' measurement uncertainty' is the parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand (or magnitude). This parameter could be a standard deviation or a confidence interval. The uncertainty evaluation requires detailed look at all possible sources, but not disproportionately. We can make a good estimate of the uncertainty concentrating efforts on the largest contributions. The key steps of the process of determining the uncertainty in the measurements are: - the specification of the measurand; - identification of the sources of uncertainty - the quantification of individual components of uncertainty, - calculate the combined standard uncertainty; - report of uncertainty. [Spanish] Uno de los aspectos mas importantes en relacion con el aseguramiento de la calidad en cualquier actividad analitica es la estimacion de la incertidumbre de la medicion. Existe el acuerdo general que 'la expresion del resultado de una medicion no esta completa sin especificar su incertidumbre asociada'. Un proceso analitico es el mecanismo

  1. Existence theory in optimal control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olech, C.

    1976-01-01

    This paper treats the existence problem in two main cases. One case is that of linear systems when existence is based on closedness or compactness of the reachable set and the other, non-linear case refers to a situation where for the existence of optimal solutions closedness of the set of admissible solutions is needed. Some results from convex analysis are included in the paper. (author)

  2. A commentary on model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.

    1994-01-01

    A framework is proposed for the identification of model and parameter uncertainties in risk assessment models. Two cases are distinguished; in the first case, a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses (models) can be formulated, while, in the second, only one reference model is available. The relevance of this formulation to decision making and the communication of uncertainties is discussed

  3. Mama Software Features: Uncertainty Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruggiero, Christy E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Porter, Reid B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-05-30

    This document reviews how the uncertainty in the calculations is being determined with test image data. The results of this testing give an ‘initial uncertainty’ number than can be used to estimate the ‘back end’ uncertainty in digital image quantification in images. Statisticians are refining these numbers as part of a UQ effort.

  4. Designing for Uncertainty: Three Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Scott

    2007-01-01

    Higher education wishes to get long life and good returns on its investment in learning spaces. Doing this has become difficult because rapid changes in information technology have created fundamental uncertainties about the future in which capital investments must deliver value. Three approaches to designing for this uncertainty are described…

  5. Uncertainty in Forest Net Present Value Estimations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilona Pietilä

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty related to inventory data, growth models and timber price fluctuation was investigated in the assessment of forest property net present value (NPV. The degree of uncertainty associated with inventory data was obtained from previous area-based airborne laser scanning (ALS inventory studies. The study was performed, applying the Monte Carlo simulation, using stand-level growth and yield projection models and three alternative rates of interest (3, 4 and 5%. Timber price fluctuation was portrayed with geometric mean-reverting (GMR price models. The analysis was conducted for four alternative forest properties having varying compartment structures: (A a property having an even development class distribution, (B sapling stands, (C young thinning stands, and (D mature stands. Simulations resulted in predicted yield value (predicted NPV distributions at both stand and property levels. Our results showed that ALS inventory errors were the most prominent source of uncertainty, leading to a 5.1–7.5% relative deviation of property-level NPV when an interest rate of 3% was applied. Interestingly, ALS inventory led to significant biases at the property level, ranging from 8.9% to 14.1% (3% interest rate. ALS inventory-based bias was the most significant in mature stand properties. Errors related to the growth predictions led to a relative standard deviation in NPV, varying from 1.5% to 4.1%. Growth model-related uncertainty was most significant in sapling stand properties. Timber price fluctuation caused the relative standard deviations ranged from 3.4% to 6.4% (3% interest rate. The combined relative variation caused by inventory errors, growth model errors and timber price fluctuation varied, depending on the property type and applied rates of interest, from 6.4% to 12.6%. By applying the methodology described here, one may take into account the effects of various uncertainty factors in the prediction of forest yield value and to supply the

  6. Exploring the implication of climate process uncertainties within the Earth System Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B.; Lambert, F. H.; McNeal, D.; Harris, G.; Sexton, D.; Boulton, C.; Murphy, J.

    2011-12-01

    Uncertainties in the magnitude of future climate change have been a focus of a great deal of research. Much of the work with General Circulation Models has focused on the atmospheric response to changes in atmospheric composition, while other processes remain outside these frameworks. Here we introduce an ensemble of new simulations, based on an Earth System configuration of HadCM3C, designed to explored uncertainties in both physical (atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol physics) and carbon cycle processes, using perturbed parameter approaches previously used to explore atmospheric uncertainty. Framed in the context of the climate response to future changes in emissions, the resultant future projections represent significantly broader uncertainty than existing concentration driven GCM assessments. The systematic nature of the ensemble design enables interactions between components to be explored. For example, we show how metrics of physical processes (such as climate sensitivity) are also influenced carbon cycle parameters. The suggestion from this work is that carbon cycle processes represent a comparable contribution to uncertainty in future climate projections as contributions from atmospheric feedbacks more conventionally explored. The broad range of climate responses explored within these ensembles, rather than representing a reason for inaction, provide information on lower likelihood but high impact changes. For example while the majority of these simulations suggest that future Amazon forest extent is resilient to the projected climate changes, a small number simulate dramatic forest dieback. This ensemble represents a framework to examine these risks, breaking them down into physical processes (such as ocean temperature drivers of rainfall change) and vegetation processes (where uncertainties point towards requirements for new observational constraints).

  7. Uncertainty information in climate data records from Earth observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merchant, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    How to derive and present uncertainty in climate data records (CDRs) has been debated within the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative, in search of common principles applicable across a range of essential climate variables. Various points of consensus have been reached, including the importance of improving provision of uncertainty information and the benefit of adopting international norms of metrology for language around the distinct concepts of uncertainty and error. Providing an estimate of standard uncertainty per datum (or the means to readily calculate it) emerged as baseline good practice, and should be highly relevant to users of CDRs when the uncertainty in data is variable (the usual case). Given this baseline, the role of quality flags is clarified as being complementary to and not repetitive of uncertainty information. Data with high uncertainty are not poor quality if a valid estimate of the uncertainty is available. For CDRs and their applications, the error correlation properties across spatio-temporal scales present important challenges that are not fully solved. Error effects that are negligible in the uncertainty of a single pixel may dominate uncertainty in the large-scale and long-term. A further principle is that uncertainty estimates should themselves be validated. The concepts of estimating and propagating uncertainty are generally acknowledged in geophysical sciences, but less widely practised in Earth observation and development of CDRs. Uncertainty in a CDR depends in part (and usually significantly) on the error covariance of the radiances and auxiliary data used in the retrieval. Typically, error covariance information is not available in the fundamental CDR (FCDR) (i.e., with the level-1 radiances), since provision of adequate level-1 uncertainty information is not yet standard practice. Those deriving CDRs thus cannot propagate the radiance uncertainty to their geophysical products. The FIDUCEO project (www.fiduceo.eu) is

  8. Perceptual uncertainty supports design reasoning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Winger S. W.

    2018-06-01

    The unstructured, ambiguous figures used as design cues in the experiment were classified as being at high, moderate, and low ambiguity. Participants were required to use the ideas suggested by the visual cues to design a novel table. Results showed that different levels of ambiguity within the cues significantly influenced the quantity of idea development of expert designers, but not novice designers, whose idea generation remained relatively low across all levels of ambiguity. For experts, as the level of ambiguity in the cue increased so did the number of design ideas that were generated. Most design interpretations created by both experts and novices were affected by geometric contours within the figures. In addition, when viewing cues of high ambiguity, experts produced more interpretative transformations than when viewing cues of moderate or low ambiguity. Furthermore, experts produced significantly more new functions or meanings than novices. We claim that increased ambiguity within presented visual cues engenders uncertainty in designers that facilitates flexible transformations and interpretations that prevent premature commitment to uncreative solutions. Such results could be applied in design learning and education, focused on differences between experts and novices, to generalize the principles and strategies of interpretations by experts during concept sketching to train novices when face design problems, and the development of CACD tools to support designers.

  9. Managing Measurement Uncertainty in Building Acoustics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Scrosati

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In general, uncertainties should preferably be determined following the principles laid down in ISO/IEC Guide 98-3, the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM:1995. According to current knowledge, it seems impossible to formulate these models for the different quantities in building acoustics. Therefore, the concepts of repeatability and reproducibility are necessary to determine the uncertainty of building acoustics measurements. This study shows the uncertainty of field measurements of a lightweight wall, a heavyweight floor, a façade with a single glazing window and a façade with double glazing window that were analyzed by a Round Robin Test (RRT, conducted in a full-scale experimental building at ITC-CNR (Construction Technologies Institute of the National Research Council of Italy. The single number quantities and their uncertainties were evaluated in both narrow and enlarged range and it was shown that including or excluding the low frequencies leads to very significant differences, except in the case of the sound insulation of façades with single glazing window. The results obtained in these RRTs were compared with other results from literature, which confirm the increase of the uncertainty of single number quantities due to the low frequencies extension. Having stated the measurement uncertainty for a single measurement, in building acoustics, it is also very important to deal with sampling for the purposes of classification of buildings or building units. Therefore, this study also shows an application of the sampling included in the Italian Standard on the acoustic classification of building units on a serial type building consisting of 47 building units. It was found that the greatest variability is observed in the façade and it depends on both the great variability of window’s typologies and on workmanship. Finally, it is suggested how to manage the uncertainty in building acoustics, both for one single

  10. Remediation of the Faultless Underground Nuclear Test: Moving Forward in the Face of Model Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chapman, J. B.; Pohlmann, K.; Pohll, G.; Hassan, A.; Sanders, P.; Sanchez, M.; Jaunarajs, S.

    2002-01-01

    parameter values and the additive effects of multiple sources of uncertainty. Ultimately, the question was whether new data collection would substantially reduce uncertainty in the model. A Data Decision Analysis (DDA) was performed to quantify uncertainty in the existing model and determine the most cost-beneficial activities for reducing uncertainty, if reduction was needed. The DDA indicated that though there is large uncertainty present in some model parameters, the overall uncertainty in the calculated contaminant boundary during the 1,000-year regulatory timeframe is relatively small. As a result, limited uncertainty reduction can be expected from expensive characterization activities. With these results, DOE and NDEP have determined that the site model is suitable for moving forward in the corrective action process. Key to this acceptance is acknowledgment that the model requires independent validation data and the site requires long-term monitoring. Developing the validation and monitoring plans, and calculating contaminant boundaries are the tasks now being pursued for the site. The significant progress made for the site is due to the close cooperation and communication of the parties involved and an acceptance and understanding of the role of uncertainty

  11. Multi-scenario modelling of uncertainty in stochastic chemical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R. David; Ricardez-Sandoval, Luis A.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty analysis has not been well studied at the molecular scale, despite extensive knowledge of uncertainty in macroscale systems. The ability to predict the effect of uncertainty allows for robust control of small scale systems such as nanoreactors, surface reactions, and gene toggle switches. However, it is difficult to model uncertainty in such chemical systems as they are stochastic in nature, and require a large computational cost. To address this issue, a new model of uncertainty propagation in stochastic chemical systems, based on the Chemical Master Equation, is proposed in the present study. The uncertain solution is approximated by a composite state comprised of the averaged effect of samples from the uncertain parameter distributions. This model is then used to study the effect of uncertainty on an isomerization system and a two gene regulation network called a repressilator. The results of this model show that uncertainty in stochastic systems is dependent on both the uncertain distribution, and the system under investigation. -- Highlights: •A method to model uncertainty on stochastic systems was developed. •The method is based on the Chemical Master Equation. •Uncertainty in an isomerization reaction and a gene regulation network was modelled. •Effects were significant and dependent on the uncertain input and reaction system. •The model was computationally more efficient than Kinetic Monte Carlo

  12. Uncertainty analysis in the applications of nuclear probabilistic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Duy, T.D.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to propose an approach to model parameter and model uncertainties affecting the results of risk indicators used in the applications of nuclear Probabilistic Risk assessment (PRA). After studying the limitations of the traditional probabilistic approach to represent uncertainty in PRA model, a new approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory has been proposed. The uncertainty analysis process of the proposed approach consists in five main steps. The first step aims to model input parameter uncertainties by belief and plausibility functions according to the data PRA model. The second step involves the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the risk model to lay out the uncertainties associated with output risk indicators. The model uncertainty is then taken into account in the third step by considering possible alternative risk models. The fourth step is intended firstly to provide decision makers with information needed for decision making under uncertainty (parametric and model) and secondly to identify the input parameters that have significant uncertainty contributions on the result. The final step allows the process to be continued in loop by studying the updating of beliefs functions given new data. The proposed methodology was implemented on a real but simplified application of PRA model. (author)

  13. Uncertainties in the simulation of groundwater recharge at different scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Bogena

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Digital spatial data always imply some kind of uncertainty. The source of this uncertainty can be found in their compilation as well as the conceptual design that causes a more or less exact abstraction of the real world, depending on the scale under consideration. Within the framework of hydrological modelling, in which numerous data sets from diverse sources of uneven quality are combined, the various uncertainties are accumulated. In this study, the GROWA model is taken as an example to examine the effects of different types of uncertainties on the calculated groundwater recharge. Distributed input errors are determined for the parameters' slope and aspect using a Monte Carlo approach. Landcover classification uncertainties are analysed by using the conditional probabilities of a remote sensing classification procedure. The uncertainties of data ensembles at different scales and study areas are discussed. The present uncertainty analysis showed that the Gaussian error propagation method is a useful technique for analysing the influence of input data on the simulated groundwater recharge. The uncertainties involved in the land use classification procedure and the digital elevation model can be significant in some parts of the study area. However, for the specific model used in this study it was shown that the precipitation uncertainties have the greatest impact on the total groundwater recharge error.

  14. Economic–Environmental Sustainability in Building Projects: Introducing Risk and Uncertainty in LCCE and LCCA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena Fregonara

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to propose a methodology for supporting decision-making in the design stages of new buildings or in the retrofitting of existing heritages. The focus is on the evaluation of economic–environmental sustainability, considering the presence of risk and uncertainty. An application of risk analysis in conjunction with Life-Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA is proposed for selecting the preferable solution between technological options, which represents a recent and poorly explored context of analysis. It is assumed that there is a presence of uncertainty in cost estimating, in terms of the Life-Cycle Cost Estimates (LCCEs and uncertainty in the technical performance of the life-cycle cost analysis. According to the probability analysis, which was solved through stochastic simulation and the Monte Carlo Method (MCM, risk and uncertainty are modeled as stochastic variables or as “stochastic relevant cost drivers”. Coherently, the economic–financial and energy–environmental sustainability is analyzed through the calculation of a conjoint “economic–environmental indicator”, in terms of the stochastic global cost. A case study of the multifunctional building glass façade project in Northern Italy is proposed. The application demonstrates that introducing flexibility into the input data and the duration of the service lives of components and the economic and environmental behavior of alternative scenarios can lead to opposite results compared to a deterministic analysis. The results give full evidence of the environmental variables’ capacity to significantly perturb the model output.

  15. Accounting for uncertainty in evaluating water quality impacts of urban development plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Jiquan; Liu Yi; Chen Jining

    2010-01-01

    The implementation of urban development plans causes land use change, which can have significant environmental impacts. In light of this, environmental concerns should be considered sufficiently at an early stage of the planning process. However, uncertainties existing in urban development plans hamper the application of strategic environmental assessment, which is applied to evaluate the environmental impacts of policies, plans and programs. This study develops an integrated assessment method based on accounting uncertainty of environmental impacts. And the proposed method consists of four main steps: (1) designing scenarios of economic scale and industrial structure, (2) sampling for possible land use layouts, (3) evaluating each sample's environmental impact, and (4) identifying environmentally sensitive industries. In doing so, uncertainties of environmental impacts can be accounted. Then environmental risk, overall environmental pressure and potential extreme environmental impact of urban development plans can be analyzed, and environmentally sensitive factors can be identified, especially under considerations of uncertainties. It can help decision-makers enhance environmental consideration and take measures in the early stage of decision-making.

  16. Identification of optimal strategies for energy management systems planning under multiple uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai, Y.P.; Huang, G.H.; Yang, Z.F.; Tan, Q.

    2009-01-01

    Management of energy resources is crucial for many regions throughout the world. Many economic, environmental and political factors are having significant effects on energy management practices, leading to a variety of uncertainties in relevant decision making. The objective of this research is to identify optimal strategies in the planning of energy management systems under multiple uncertainties through the development of a fuzzy-random interval programming (FRIP) model. The method is based on an integration of the existing interval linear programming (ILP), superiority-inferiority-based fuzzy-stochastic programming (SI-FSP) and mixed integer linear programming (MILP). Such a FRIP model allows multiple uncertainties presented as interval values, possibilistic and probabilistic distributions, as well as their combinations within a general optimization framework. It can also be used for facilitating capacity-expansion planning of energy-production facilities within a multi-period and multi-option context. Complexities in energy management systems can be systematically reflected, thus applicability of the modeling process can be highly enhanced. The developed method has then been applied to a case of long-term energy management planning for a region with three cities. Useful solutions for the planning of energy management systems were generated. Interval solutions associated with different risk levels of constraint violation were obtained. They could be used for generating decision alternatives and thus help decision makers identify desired policies under various economic and system-reliability constraints. The solutions can also provide desired energy resource/service allocation and capacity-expansion plans with a minimized system cost, a maximized system reliability and a maximized energy security. Tradeoffs between system costs and constraint-violation risks could be successfully tackled, i.e., higher costs will increase system stability, while a desire for lower

  17. Uncertainties in Nuclear Proliferation Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man-Sung; Park, Hyeon Seok

    2015-01-01

    There have been various efforts in the research community to understand the determinants of nuclear proliferation and develop quantitative tools to predict nuclear proliferation events. Such systematic approaches have shown the possibility to provide warning for the international community to prevent nuclear proliferation activities. However, there are still large debates for the robustness of the actual effect of determinants and projection results. Some studies have shown that several factors can cause uncertainties in previous quantitative nuclear proliferation modeling works. This paper analyzes the uncertainties in the past approaches and suggests future works in the view of proliferation history, analysis methods, and variable selection. The research community still lacks the knowledge for the source of uncertainty in current models. Fundamental problems in modeling will remain even other advanced modeling method is developed. Before starting to develop fancy model based on the time dependent proliferation determinants' hypothesis, using graph theory, etc., it is important to analyze the uncertainty of current model to solve the fundamental problems of nuclear proliferation modeling. The uncertainty from different proliferation history coding is small. Serious problems are from limited analysis methods and correlation among the variables. Problems in regression analysis and survival analysis cause huge uncertainties when using the same dataset, which decreases the robustness of the result. Inaccurate variables for nuclear proliferation also increase the uncertainty. To overcome these problems, further quantitative research should focus on analyzing the knowledge suggested on the qualitative nuclear proliferation studies

  18. Measurement uncertainty: Friend or foe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infusino, Ilenia; Panteghini, Mauro

    2018-02-02

    The definition and enforcement of a reference measurement system, based on the implementation of metrological traceability of patients' results to higher order reference methods and materials, together with a clinically acceptable level of measurement uncertainty, are fundamental requirements to produce accurate and equivalent laboratory results. The uncertainty associated with each step of the traceability chain should be governed to obtain a final combined uncertainty on clinical samples fulfilling the requested performance specifications. It is important that end-users (i.e., clinical laboratory) may know and verify how in vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturers have implemented the traceability of their calibrators and estimated the corresponding uncertainty. However, full information about traceability and combined uncertainty of calibrators is currently very difficult to obtain. Laboratory professionals should investigate the need to reduce the uncertainty of the higher order metrological references and/or to increase the precision of commercial measuring systems. Accordingly, the measurement uncertainty should not be considered a parameter to be calculated by clinical laboratories just to fulfil the accreditation standards, but it must become a key quality indicator to describe both the performance of an IVD measuring system and the laboratory itself. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

  20. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

  1. Parametric uncertainty in optical image modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potzick, James; Marx, Egon; Davidson, Mark

    2006-10-01

    Optical photomask feature metrology and wafer exposure process simulation both rely on optical image modeling for accurate results. While it is fair to question the accuracies of the available models, model results also depend on several input parameters describing the object and imaging system. Errors in these parameter values can lead to significant errors in the modeled image. These parameters include wavelength, illumination and objective NA's, magnification, focus, etc. for the optical system, and topography, complex index of refraction n and k, etc. for the object. In this paper each input parameter is varied over a range about its nominal value and the corresponding images simulated. Second order parameter interactions are not explored. Using the scenario of the optical measurement of photomask features, these parametric sensitivities are quantified by calculating the apparent change of the measured linewidth for a small change in the relevant parameter. Then, using reasonable values for the estimated uncertainties of these parameters, the parametric linewidth uncertainties can be calculated and combined to give a lower limit to the linewidth measurement uncertainty for those parameter uncertainties.

  2. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  3. Statistical Uncertainty Quantification of Physical Models during Reflood of LBLOCA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Deog Yeon; Seul, Kwang Won; Woo, Sweng Woong [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    The use of the best-estimate (BE) computer codes in safety analysis for loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) is the major trend in many countries to reduce the significant conservatism. A key feature of this BE evaluation requires the licensee to quantify the uncertainty of the calculations. So, it is very important how to determine the uncertainty distribution before conducting the uncertainty evaluation. Uncertainty includes those of physical model and correlation, plant operational parameters, and so forth. The quantification process is often performed mainly by subjective expert judgment or obtained from reference documents of computer code. In this respect, more mathematical methods are needed to reasonably determine the uncertainty ranges. The first uncertainty quantification are performed with the various increments for two influential uncertainty parameters to get the calculated responses and their derivatives. The different data set with two influential uncertainty parameters for FEBA tests, are chosen applying more strict criteria for selecting responses and their derivatives, which may be considered as the user’s effect in the CIRCÉ applications. Finally, three influential uncertainty parameters are considered to study the effect on the number of uncertainty parameters due to the limitation of CIRCÉ method. With the determined uncertainty ranges, uncertainty evaluations for FEBA tests are performed to check whether the experimental responses such as the cladding temperature or pressure drop are inside the limits of calculated uncertainty bounds. A confirmation step will be performed to evaluate the quality of the information in the case of the different reflooding PERICLES experiments. The uncertainty ranges of physical model in MARS-KS thermal-hydraulic code during the reflooding were quantified by CIRCÉ method using FEBA experiment tests, instead of expert judgment. Also, through the uncertainty evaluation for FEBA and PERICLES tests, it was confirmed

  4. Decision-making under great uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, S.O.

    1992-01-01

    Five types of decision-uncertainty are distinguished: uncertainty of consequences, of values, of demarcation, of reliance, and of co-ordination. Strategies are proposed for each type of uncertainty. The general conclusion is that it is meaningful for decision theory to treat cases with greater uncertainty than the textbook case of 'decision-making under uncertainty'. (au)

  5. Quantification of Safety-Critical Software Test Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalaquzzaman, M.; Cho, Jaehyun; Lee, Seung Jun; Jung, Wondea

    2015-01-01

    The method, conservatively assumes that the failure probability of a software for the untested inputs is 1, and the failure probability turns in 0 for successful testing of all test cases. However, in reality the chance of failure exists due to the test uncertainty. Some studies have been carried out to identify the test attributes that affect the test quality. Cao discussed the testing effort, testing coverage, and testing environment. Management of the test uncertainties was discussed in. In this study, the test uncertainty has been considered to estimate the software failure probability because the software testing process is considered to be inherently uncertain. A reliability estimation of software is very important for a probabilistic safety analysis of a digital safety critical system of NPPs. This study focused on the estimation of the probability of a software failure that considers the uncertainty in software testing. In our study, BBN has been employed as an example model for software test uncertainty quantification. Although it can be argued that the direct expert elicitation of test uncertainty is much simpler than BBN estimation, however the BBN approach provides more insights and a basis for uncertainty estimation

  6. Uncertainty of Modal Parameters Estimated by ARMA Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jacob Laigaard; Brincker, Rune; Rytter, Anders

    1990-01-01

    In this paper the uncertainties of identified modal parameters such as eidenfrequencies and damping ratios are assed. From the measured response of dynamic excited structures the modal parameters may be identified and provide important structural knowledge. However the uncertainty of the parameters...... by simulation study of a lightly damped single degree of freedom system. Identification by ARMA models has been choosen as system identification method. It is concluded that both the sampling interval and number of sampled points may play a significant role with respect to the statistical errors. Furthermore......, it is shown that the model errors may also contribute significantly to the uncertainty....

  7. Realising the Uncertainty Enabled Model Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, D.; Bastin, L.; Pebesma, E. J.; Williams, M.; Stasch, C.; Jones, R.; Gerharz, L.

    2012-12-01

    The FP7 funded UncertWeb project aims to create the "uncertainty enabled model web". The central concept here is that geospatial models and data resources are exposed via standard web service interfaces, such as the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) suite of encodings and interface standards, allowing the creation of complex workflows combining both data and models. The focus of UncertWeb is on the issue of managing uncertainty in such workflows, and providing the standards, architecture, tools and software support necessary to realise the "uncertainty enabled model web". In this paper we summarise the developments in the first two years of UncertWeb, illustrating several key points with examples taken from the use case requirements that motivate the project. Firstly we address the issue of encoding specifications. We explain the usage of UncertML 2.0, a flexible encoding for representing uncertainty based on a probabilistic approach. This is designed to be used within existing standards such as Observations and Measurements (O&M) and data quality elements of ISO19115 / 19139 (geographic information metadata and encoding specifications) as well as more broadly outside the OGC domain. We show profiles of O&M that have been developed within UncertWeb and how UncertML 2.0 is used within these. We also show encodings based on NetCDF and discuss possible future directions for encodings in JSON. We then discuss the issues of workflow construction, considering discovery of resources (both data and models). We discuss why a brokering approach to service composition is necessary in a world where the web service interfaces remain relatively heterogeneous, including many non-OGC approaches, in particular the more mainstream SOAP and WSDL approaches. We discuss the trade-offs between delegating uncertainty management functions to the service interfaces themselves and integrating the functions in the workflow management system. We describe two utility services to address

  8. Uncertainties of Molecular Structural Parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Császár, Attila G.

    2014-01-01

    performed. Simply, there are significant disagreements between the same bond lengths measured by different techniques. These disagreements are, however, systematic and can be computed via techniques of quantum chemistry which deal not only with the motions of the electrons (electronic structure theory) but also with the often large amplitude motions of the nuclei. As to the relevant quantum chemical computations, since about 1970 electronic structure theory has become able to make quantitative predictions and thus challenge (or even overrule) many experiments. Nevertheless, quantitative agreement of quantum chemical results with experiment can only be expected when the motions of the atoms are also considered. In the fourth age of quantum chemistry we are living in an era where one can bridge quantitatively the gap between ‘effective’, experimental and ‘equilibrium’, computed structures at even elevated temperatures of interest thus minimizing any real uncertainties of structural parameters. The connections mentioned are extremely important as they help to understand the true uncertainty of measured structural parameters. Traditionally it is microwave (MW) and millimeterwave (MMW) spectroscopy, as well as gas-phase electron diffraction (GED), which yielded the most accurate structural parameters of molecules. The accuracy of the MW and GED experiments approached about 0.001Å and 0.1º under ideal circumstances, worse, sometimes considerably worse, in less than ideal and much more often encountered situations. Quantum chemistry can define both highly accurate equilibrium (so-called Born-Oppenheimer, r_e"B"O, and semiexperimental, r_e"S"E) structures and, via detailed investigation of molecular motions, accurate temperature-dependent rovibrationally averaged structures. Determining structures is still a rich field for research, understanding the measured or computed uncertainties of structures and structural parameters is still a challenge but there are firm and well

  9. Scientific uncertainties and climate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, M.

    2005-01-01

    Human activities have induced a significant change in the Earth's atmospheric composition and, most likely, this trend will increase throughout the coming decades. During the last decades, the mean temperature has actually increased by the expected amount. Moreover, the geographical distribution of the warming, and day-to-night temperature variation have evolved as predicted. The magnitude of those changes is relatively small for the time being, but is expected to increase alarmingly during the coming decades. Greenhouse warming is a representative example of the problems of sustainable development: long-term risks can be estimated on a rational basis from scientific laws alone, but the non-specialist is generally not prepared to understand the steps required. However, even the non-specialist has obviously the right to decide about his way of life and the inheritance that he would like to leave for his children, but it is preferable that he is fully informed before making his decisions. Dialog, mutual understanding and confidence must prevail between Science and Society to avoid irrational actions. Controversy among experts is quite frequent. In the case of greenhouse warming, a commendable collective expertise has drastically reduced possible confusion. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was created jointly by the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) and the UN Program for the Environment (UNEP). Its reports evaluate the state of knowledge on past and future global climate changes, their impact, and the possibility of controlling anthropogenic emissions. The main targeted readers are, nevertheless, non-specialists, who should be made aware of results deduced from approaches that they may not be able to follow step by step. Moreover, these results, in particular, future projections, are, and will remain, subject to some uncertainty, which a fair description of the state of knowledge must include. Many misunderstandings between writers and readers can

  10. The Uncertainties of Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

    2014-01-01

    for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

  11. Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2016-01-01

    Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  12. Relational uncertainty in service dyads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie

    2017-01-01

    in service dyads and how they resolve it through suitable organisational responses to increase the level of service quality. Design/methodology/approach: We apply the overall logic of Organisational Information-Processing Theory (OIPT) and present empirical insights from two industrial case studies collected...... the relational uncertainty increased the functional quality while resolving the partner’s organisational uncertainty increased the technical quality of the delivered service. Originality: We make two contributions. First, we introduce relational uncertainty to the OM literature as the inability to predict...... and explain the actions of a partnering organisation due to a lack of knowledge about their abilities and intentions. Second, we present suitable organisational responses to relational uncertainty and their effect on service quality....

  13. Advanced LOCA code uncertainty assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickett, A.J.; Neill, A.P.

    1990-11-01

    This report describes a pilot study that identified, quantified and combined uncertainties for the LOBI BL-02 3% small break test. A ''dials'' version of TRAC-PF1/MOD1, called TRAC-F, was used. (author)

  14. Uncertainty analysis of NDA waste measurements using computer simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Yoon, W.Y.; Meachum, T.R.

    2000-01-01

    Uncertainty assessments for nondestructive radioassay (NDA) systems for nuclear waste are complicated by factors extraneous to the measurement systems themselves. Most notably, characteristics of the waste matrix (e.g., homogeneity) and radioactive source material (e.g., particle size distribution) can have great effects on measured mass values. Under these circumstances, characterizing the waste population is as important as understanding the measurement system in obtaining realistic uncertainty values. When extraneous waste characteristics affect measurement results, the uncertainty results are waste-type specific. The goal becomes to assess the expected bias and precision for the measurement of a randomly selected item from the waste population of interest. Standard propagation-of-errors methods for uncertainty analysis can be very difficult to implement in the presence of significant extraneous effects on the measurement system. An alternative approach that naturally includes the extraneous effects is as follows: (1) Draw a random sample of items from the population of interest; (2) Measure the items using the NDA system of interest; (3) Establish the true quantity being measured using a gold standard technique; and (4) Estimate bias by deriving a statistical regression model comparing the measurements on the system of interest to the gold standard values; similar regression techniques for modeling the standard deviation of the difference values gives the estimated precision. Actual implementation of this method is often impractical. For example, a true gold standard confirmation measurement may not exist. A more tractable implementation is obtained by developing numerical models for both the waste material and the measurement system. A random sample of simulated waste containers generated by the waste population model serves as input to the measurement system model. This approach has been developed and successfully applied to assessing the quantity of

  15. How to live with uncertainties?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, R.

    2012-01-01

    In a short introduction, the problem of uncertainty as a general consequence of incomplete information as well as the approach to quantify uncertainty in metrology are addressed. A little history of the more than 30 years of the working group AK SIGMA is followed by an appraisal of its up-to-now achievements. Then, the potential future of the AK SIGMA is discussed based on its actual tasks and on open scientific questions and future topics. (orig.)

  16. Some remarks on modeling uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronen, Y.

    1983-01-01

    Several topics related to the question of modeling uncertainties are considered. The first topic is related to the use of the generalized bias operator method for modeling uncertainties. The method is expanded to a more general form of operators. The generalized bias operator is also used in the inverse problem and applied to determine the anisotropic scattering law. The last topic discussed is related to the question of the limit to accuracy and how to establish its value. (orig.) [de

  17. Uncertainty analysis in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de; Sullivan, Terry

    1997-01-01

    Nuclear waste disposal is a very complex subject which requires the study of many different fields of science, like hydro geology, meteorology, geochemistry, etc. In addition, the waste disposal facilities are designed to last for a very long period of time. Both of these conditions make safety assessment projections filled with uncertainty. This paper addresses approaches for treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment modeling due to the variability of data and some current approaches used to deal with this problem. (author)

  18. Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hessling, J P

    2011-01-01

    The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result

  19. Optimal Taxation under Income Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Xianhua Dai

    2011-01-01

    Optimal taxation under income uncertainty has been extensively developed in expected utility theory, but it is still open for inseparable utility function between income and effort. As an alternative of decision-making under uncertainty, prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky (1979), Tversky and Kahneman (1992)) has been obtained empirical support, for example, Kahneman and Tversky (1979), and Camerer and Lowenstein (2003). It is beginning to explore optimal taxation in the context of prospect...

  20. New Perspectives on Policy Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Hlatshwayo, Sandile

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, the ubiquitous and intensifying nature of economic policy uncertainty has made it a popular explanation for weak economic performance in developed and developing markets alike. The primary channel for this effect is decreased and delayed investment as firms adopt a ``wait and see'' approach to irreversible investments (Bernanke, 1983; Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). Deep empirical examination of policy uncertainty's impact is rare because of the difficulty associated in measuring i...

  1. Quantifying uncertainty in Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation - A high resolution simulation study in ICBM space.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toschi, Nicola; Keck, Martin E; Welt, Tobias; Guerrisi, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation offers enormous potential for noninvasive brain stimulation. While it is known that brain tissue significantly "reshapes" induced field and charge distributions, most modeling investigations to-date have focused on single-subject data with limited generality. Further, the effects of the significant uncertainties which exist in the simulation (i.e. brain conductivity distributions) and stimulation (e.g. coil positioning and orientations) setup have not been quantified. In this study, we construct a high-resolution anisotropic head model in standard ICBM space, which can be used as a population-representative standard for bioelectromagnetic simulations. Further, we employ Monte-Carlo simulations in order to quantify how uncertainties in conductivity values propagate all the way to induced field and currents, demonstrating significant, regionally dependent dispersions in values which are commonly assumed "ground truth". This framework can be leveraged in order to quantify the effect of any type of uncertainty in noninvasive brain stimulation and bears relevance in all applications of TMS, both investigative and therapeutic.

  2. Uncertainty analysis in WWTP model applications: a critical discussion using an example from design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sin, Gürkan; Gernaey, Krist; Neumann, Marc B.

    2009-01-01

    of design performance criteria differs significantly. The implication for the practical applications of uncertainty analysis in the wastewater industry is profound: (i) as the uncertainty analysis results are specific to the framing used, the results must be interpreted within the context of that framing......This study focuses on uncertainty analysis of WWTP models and analyzes the issue of framing and how it affects the interpretation of uncertainty analysis results. As a case study, the prediction of uncertainty involved in model-based design of a wastewater treatment plant is studied. The Monte...... to stoichiometric, biokinetic and influent parameters; (2) uncertainty due to hydraulic behaviour of the plant and mass transfer parameters; (3) uncertainty due to the combination of (1) and (2). The results demonstrate that depending on the way the uncertainty analysis is framed, the estimated uncertainty...

  3. Pharmacological Fingerprints of Contextual Uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Marshall

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Successful interaction with the environment requires flexible updating of our beliefs about the world. By estimating the likelihood of future events, it is possible to prepare appropriate actions in advance and execute fast, accurate motor responses. According to theoretical proposals, agents track the variability arising from changing environments by computing various forms of uncertainty. Several neuromodulators have been linked to uncertainty signalling, but comprehensive empirical characterisation of their relative contributions to perceptual belief updating, and to the selection of motor responses, is lacking. Here we assess the roles of noradrenaline, acetylcholine, and dopamine within a single, unified computational framework of uncertainty. Using pharmacological interventions in a sample of 128 healthy human volunteers and a hierarchical Bayesian learning model, we characterise the influences of noradrenergic, cholinergic, and dopaminergic receptor antagonism on individual computations of uncertainty during a probabilistic serial reaction time task. We propose that noradrenaline influences learning of uncertain events arising from unexpected changes in the environment. In contrast, acetylcholine balances attribution of uncertainty to chance fluctuations within an environmental context, defined by a stable set of probabilistic associations, or to gross environmental violations following a contextual switch. Dopamine supports the use of uncertainty representations to engender fast, adaptive responses.

  4. Economic uncertainty and its impact on the Croatian economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petar Soric

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to quantify institutional (political and fiscal and non-institutional uncertainty (economic policy uncertainty, Economists’ recession index, natural disasters-related uncertainty, and several disagreement measures. The stated indicators are based on articles from highly popular Croatian news portals, the repository of law amendments (Narodne novine, and Business and Consumer Surveys. We also introduce a composite uncertainty indicator, obtained by the principal components method. The analysis of a structural VAR model of the Croatian economy (both with fixed and time-varying parameters has showed that a vast part of the analysed indicators are significant predictors of economic activity. It is demonstrated that their impact on industrial production is the strongest in the onset of a crisis. On the other hand, the influence of fiscal uncertainty exhibits just the opposite tendencies. It strengthens with the intensification of economic activity, which partially exculpates the possible utilization of fiscal expansion as a counter-crisis tool.

  5. Existing Steel Railway Bridges Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vičan, Josef; Gocál, Jozef; Odrobiňák, Jaroslav; Koteš, Peter

    2016-12-01

    The article describes general principles and basis of evaluation of existing railway bridges based on the concept of load-carrying capacity determination. Compared to the design of a new bridge, the modified reliability level for existing bridges evaluation should be considered due to implementation of the additional data related to bridge condition and behaviour obtained from regular inspections. Based on those data respecting the bridge remaining lifetime, a modification of partial safety factors for actions and materials could be respected in the bridge evaluation process. A great attention is also paid to the specific problems of determination of load-caring capacity of steel railway bridges in service. Recommendation for global analysis and methodology for existing steel bridge superstructure load-carrying capacity determination are described too.

  6. Existing Steel Railway Bridges Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vičan Josef

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article describes general principles and basis of evaluation of existing railway bridges based on the concept of load-carrying capacity determination. Compared to the design of a new bridge, the modified reliability level for existing bridges evaluation should be considered due to implementation of the additional data related to bridge condition and behaviour obtained from regular inspections. Based on those data respecting the bridge remaining lifetime, a modification of partial safety factors for actions and materials could be respected in the bridge evaluation process. A great attention is also paid to the specific problems of determination of load-caring capacity of steel railway bridges in service. Recommendation for global analysis and methodology for existing steel bridge superstructure load-carrying capacity determination are described too.

  7. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  8. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the formulation of an uncertainty quantification challenge problem consisting of five subproblems. These problems focus on key aspects of uncertainty characterization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, extreme-case analysis, and robust design.

  9. Impact of dose-distribution uncertainties on rectal ntcp modeling I: Uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fenwick, John D.; Nahum, Alan E.

    2001-01-01

    A trial of nonescalated conformal versus conventional radiotherapy treatment of prostate cancer has been carried out at the Royal Marsden NHS Trust (RMH) and Institute of Cancer Research (ICR), demonstrating a significant reduction in the rate of rectal bleeding reported for patients treated using the conformal technique. The relationship between planned rectal dose-distributions and incidences of bleeding has been analyzed, showing that the rate of bleeding falls significantly as the extent of the rectal wall receiving a planned dose-level of more than 57 Gy is reduced. Dose-distributions delivered to the rectal wall over the course of radiotherapy treatment inevitably differ from planned distributions, due to sources of uncertainty such as patient setup error, rectal wall movement and variation in the absolute rectal wall surface area. In this paper estimates of the differences between planned and treated rectal dose-distribution parameters are obtained for the RMH/ICR nonescalated conformal technique, working from a distribution of setup errors observed during the RMH/ICR trial, movement data supplied by Lebesque and colleagues derived from repeat CT scans, and estimates of rectal circumference variations extracted from the literature. Setup errors and wall movement are found to cause only limited systematic differences between mean treated and planned rectal dose-distribution parameter values, but introduce considerable uncertainties into the treated values of some dose-distribution parameters: setup errors lead to 22% and 9% relative uncertainties in the highly dosed fraction of the rectal wall and the wall average dose, respectively, with wall movement leading to 21% and 9% relative uncertainties. Estimates obtained from the literature of the uncertainty in the absolute surface area of the distensible rectal wall are of the order of 13%-18%. In a subsequent paper the impact of these uncertainties on analyses of the relationship between incidences of bleeding

  10. Communicating spatial uncertainty to non-experts using R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luzzi, Damiano; Sawicka, Kasia; Heuvelink, Gerard; de Bruin, Sytze

    2016-04-01

    Effective visualisation methods are important for the efficient use of uncertainty information for various groups of users. Uncertainty propagation analysis is often used with spatial environmental models to quantify the uncertainty within the information. A challenge arises when trying to effectively communicate the uncertainty information to non-experts (not statisticians) in a wide range of cases. Due to the growing popularity and applicability of the open source programming language R, we undertook a project to develop an R package that facilitates uncertainty propagation analysis in spatial environmental modelling. The package has implemented Monte Carlo algorithms for uncertainty propagation, the output of which is represented by an ensemble of model outputs (i.e. a sample from a probability distribution). Numerous visualisation methods exist that aim to present such spatial uncertainty information both statically, dynamically and interactively. To provide the most universal visualisation tools for non-experts, we conducted a survey on a group of 20 university students and assessed the effectiveness of selected static and interactive methods for visualising uncertainty in spatial variables such as DEM and land cover. The static methods included adjacent maps and glyphs for continuous variables. Both allow for displaying maps with information about the ensemble mean, variance/standard deviation and prediction intervals. Adjacent maps were also used for categorical data, displaying maps of the most probable class, as well as its associated probability. The interactive methods included a graphical user interface, which in addition to displaying the previously mentioned variables also allowed for comparison of joint uncertainties at multiple locations. The survey indicated that users could understand the basics of the uncertainty information displayed in the static maps, with the interactive interface allowing for more in-depth information. Subsequently, the R

  11. Nuclear data sensitivity/uncertainty analysis for XT-ADS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugawara, Takanori; Sarotto, Massimo; Stankovskiy, Alexey; Van den Eynde, Gert

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → The sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. → The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. → When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. → To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition. - Abstract: The XT-ADS, an accelerator-driven system for an experimental demonstration, has been investigated in the framework of IP EUROTRANS FP6 project. In this study, the sensitivity and uncertainty analyses were performed to comprehend the reliability of the XT-ADS neutronic design. For the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the sensitivity coefficients were significantly different by changing the geometry models and calculation codes. For the uncertainty analysis, it was confirmed that the uncertainties deduced from the covariance data varied significantly by changing them. The uncertainties deduced from the covariance data for the XT-ADS criticality were 0.94%, 1.9% and 1.1% by the SCALE 44-group, TENDL-2009 and JENDL-3.3 data, respectively. When the target accuracy of 0.3%Δk for the criticality was considered, the uncertainties did not satisfy it. To achieve this accuracy, the uncertainties should be improved by experiments under an adequate condition.

  12. Uncertainty Analysis with Considering Resonance Self-shielding Effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Tae Young

    2016-01-01

    If infinitely diluted multi-group cross sections were used for the sensitivity, the covariance data from the evaluated nuclear data library (ENDL) was directly applied. However, in case of using a self-shielded multi-group cross section, the covariance data should be corrected considering self-shielding effect. Usually, implicit uncertainty can be defined as the uncertainty change by the resonance self-shielding effect as described above. MUSAD ( Modules of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for DeCART ) has been developed for a multiplication factor and cross section uncertainty based on the generalized perturbation theory and it, however, can only quantify the explicit uncertainty by the self-shielded multi-group cross sections without considering the implicit effect. Thus, this paper addresses the implementation of the implicit uncertainty analysis module into the code and the numerical results for the verification are provided. The implicit uncertainty analysis module has been implemented into MUSAD based on infinitely-diluted cross section-based consistent method. The verification calculation was performed on MHTGR 350 Ex.I-1a and the differences with McCARD result decrease from 40% to 1% in CZP case and 3% in HFP case. From this study, it is expected that MUSAD code can reasonably produce the complete uncertainty on VHTR or LWR where the resonance self-shielding effect should be significantly considered

  13. Uncertainty Analysis with Considering Resonance Self-shielding Effect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Han, Tae Young [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    If infinitely diluted multi-group cross sections were used for the sensitivity, the covariance data from the evaluated nuclear data library (ENDL) was directly applied. However, in case of using a self-shielded multi-group cross section, the covariance data should be corrected considering self-shielding effect. Usually, implicit uncertainty can be defined as the uncertainty change by the resonance self-shielding effect as described above. MUSAD ( Modules of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for DeCART ) has been developed for a multiplication factor and cross section uncertainty based on the generalized perturbation theory and it, however, can only quantify the explicit uncertainty by the self-shielded multi-group cross sections without considering the implicit effect. Thus, this paper addresses the implementation of the implicit uncertainty analysis module into the code and the numerical results for the verification are provided. The implicit uncertainty analysis module has been implemented into MUSAD based on infinitely-diluted cross section-based consistent method. The verification calculation was performed on MHTGR 350 Ex.I-1a and the differences with McCARD result decrease from 40% to 1% in CZP case and 3% in HFP case. From this study, it is expected that MUSAD code can reasonably produce the complete uncertainty on VHTR or LWR where the resonance self-shielding effect should be significantly considered.

  14. Verification and Uncertainty Reduction of Amchitka Underground Nuclear Testing Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed Hassan; Jenny Chapman

    2006-02-01

    The modeling of Amchitka underground nuclear tests conducted in 2002 is verified and uncertainty in model input parameters, as well as predictions, has been reduced using newly collected data obtained by the summer 2004 field expedition of CRESP. Newly collected data that pertain to the groundwater model include magnetotelluric (MT) surveys conducted on the island to determine the subsurface salinity and porosity structure of the subsurface, and bathymetric surveys to determine the bathymetric maps of the areas offshore from the Long Shot and Cannikin Sites. Analysis and interpretation of the MT data yielded information on the location of the transition zone, and porosity profiles showing porosity values decaying with depth. These new data sets are used to verify the original model in terms of model parameters, model structure, and model output verification. In addition, by using the new data along with the existing data (chemistry and head data), the uncertainty in model input and output is decreased by conditioning on all the available data. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach is adapted for developing new input parameter distributions conditioned on prior knowledge and new data. The MCMC approach is a form of Bayesian conditioning that is constructed in such a way that it produces samples of the model parameters that eventually converge to a stationary posterior distribution. The Bayesian MCMC approach enhances probabilistic assessment. Instead of simply propagating uncertainty forward from input parameters into model predictions (i.e., traditional Monte Carlo approach), MCMC propagates uncertainty backward from data onto parameters, and then forward from parameters into predictions. Comparisons between new data and the original model, and conditioning on all available data using MCMC method, yield the following results and conclusions: (1) Model structure is verified at Long Shot and Cannikin where the high-resolution bathymetric data collected by CRESP

  15. Limitations of existing web services

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Limitations of existing web services. Uploading or downloading large data. Serving too many user from single source. Difficult to provide computer intensive job. Depend on internet and its bandwidth. Security of data in transition. Maintain confidentiality of data ...

  16. Performance of Existing Hydrogen Stations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sprik, Samuel [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kurtz, Jennifer M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ainscough, Christopher D [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Saur, Genevieve [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Peters, Michael C [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-01

    In this presentation, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory presented aggregated analysis results on the performance of existing hydrogen stations, including performance, operation, utilization, maintenance, safety, hydrogen quality, and cost. The U.S. Department of Energy funds technology validation work at NREL through its National Fuel Cell Technology Evaluation Center (NFCTEC).

  17. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

  18. Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

    1994-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

  19. Uncertainty analysis in raw material and utility cost of biorefinery synthesis and design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheali, Peam; Quaglia, Alberto; Gernaey, Krist

    2014-01-01

    are characterized by considerable uncertainty. These uncertainties might have significant impact on the results of the design problem, and therefore need to be carefully evaluated and managed, in order to generate candidates for robust design. In this contribution, we study the effect of data uncertainty (raw...... material price and utility cost) on the design of a biorefinery process network....

  20. RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-06-17

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  1. Ruminations On NDA Measurement Uncertainty Compared TO DA Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  2. Can you put too much on your plate? Uncertainty exposure in servitized triads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie E.

    2017-01-01

    -national servitized triad in a European-North African set-up which was collected through 29 semi-structured interviews and secondary data. Findings: The empirical study identified the existence of the three uncertainty types and directional knock-on effects between them. Specifically, environmental uncertainty...... relational governance reduced relational uncertainty. The knock-on effects were reduced through organisational and relational responses. Originality: This paper makes two contributions. First, a structured analysis of the uncertainty exposure in servitized triads is presented which shows the existence...... of three individual uncertainty types and the knock-on effects between them. Second, organisational responses to reduce the three uncertainty types individually and the knock-on effects between them are presented....

  3. Incorporating the effects of socioeconomic uncertainty into priority setting for conservation investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, Marissa F; Wilson, Kerrie A; Bode, Michael; Possingham, Hugh P

    2007-12-01

    Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.

  4. Uncertainty Quantification of Multi-Phase Closures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nadiga, Balasubramanya T. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Baglietto, Emilio [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

    2017-10-27

    In the ensemble-averaged dispersed phase formulation used for CFD of multiphase ows in nuclear reactor thermohydraulics, closures of interphase transfer of mass, momentum, and energy constitute, by far, the biggest source of error and uncertainty. Reliable estimators of this source of error and uncertainty are currently non-existent. Here, we report on how modern Validation and Uncertainty Quanti cation (VUQ) techniques can be leveraged to not only quantify such errors and uncertainties, but also to uncover (unintended) interactions between closures of di erent phenomena. As such this approach serves as a valuable aide in the research and development of multiphase closures. The joint modeling of lift, drag, wall lubrication, and turbulent dispersion|forces that lead to tranfer of momentum between the liquid and gas phases|is examined in the frame- work of validation of the adiabatic but turbulent experiments of Liu and Banko , 1993. An extensive calibration study is undertaken with a popular combination of closure relations and the popular k-ϵ turbulence model in a Bayesian framework. When a wide range of super cial liquid and gas velocities and void fractions is considered, it is found that this set of closures can be validated against the experimental data only by allowing large variations in the coe cients associated with the closures. We argue that such an extent of variation is a measure of uncertainty induced by the chosen set of closures. We also nd that while mean uid velocity and void fraction pro les are properly t, uctuating uid velocity may or may not be properly t. This aspect needs to be investigated further. The popular set of closures considered contains ad-hoc components and are undesirable from a predictive modeling point of view. Consequently, we next consider improvements that are being developed by the MIT group under CASL and which remove the ad-hoc elements. We use non-intrusive methodologies for sensitivity analysis and calibration (using

  5. Uncertainty Quantification in Numerical Aerodynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-05-16

    We consider uncertainty quantification problem in aerodynamic simulations. We identify input uncertainties, classify them, suggest an appropriate statistical model and, finally, estimate propagation of these uncertainties into the solution (pressure, velocity and density fields as well as the lift and drag coefficients). The deterministic problem under consideration is a compressible transonic Reynolds-averaged Navier-Strokes flow around an airfoil with random/uncertain data. Input uncertainties include: uncertain angle of attack, the Mach number, random perturbations in the airfoil geometry, mesh, shock location, turbulence model and parameters of this turbulence model. This problem requires efficient numerical/statistical methods since it is computationally expensive, especially for the uncertainties caused by random geometry variations which involve a large number of variables. In numerical section we compares five methods, including quasi-Monte Carlo quadrature, polynomial chaos with coefficients determined by sparse quadrature and gradient-enhanced version of Kriging, radial basis functions and point collocation polynomial chaos, in their efficiency in estimating statistics of aerodynamic performance upon random perturbation to the airfoil geometry [D.Liu et al \\'17]. For modeling we used the TAU code, developed in DLR, Germany.

  6. Uncertainty modeling and decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yager, Ronald R.

    2004-01-01

    We first formulate the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The importance of the representation of our knowledge about the uncertainty in formulating a decision process is pointed out. We begin with a brief discussion of the case of probabilistic uncertainty. Next, in considerable detail, we discuss the case of decision making under ignorance. For this case the fundamental role of the attitude of the decision maker is noted and its subjective nature is emphasized. Next the case in which a Dempster-Shafer belief structure is used to model our knowledge of the uncertainty is considered. Here we also emphasize the subjective choices the decision maker must make in formulating a decision function. The case in which the uncertainty is represented by a fuzzy measure (monotonic set function) is then investigated. We then return to the Dempster-Shafer belief structure and show its relationship to the fuzzy measure. This relationship allows us to get a deeper understanding of the formulation the decision function used Dempster- Shafer framework. We discuss how this deeper understanding allows a decision analyst to better make the subjective choices needed in the formulation of the decision function

  7. The Greenhouse Effect Does Exist!

    OpenAIRE

    Ebel, Jochen

    2009-01-01

    In particular, without the greenhouse effect, essential features of the atmospheric temperature profile as a function of height cannot be described, i.e., the existence of the tropopause above which we see an almost isothermal temperature curve, whereas beneath it the temperature curve is nearly adiabatic. The relationship between the greenhouse effect and observed temperature curve is explained and the paper by Gerlich and Tscheuschner [arXiv:0707.1161] critically analyzed. Gerlich and Tsche...

  8. Europe - space for transcultural existence?

    OpenAIRE

    Tamcke, Martin; Janny, de Jong; Klein, Lars; Waal, Margriet

    2013-01-01

    Europe - Space for Transcultural Existence? is the first volume of the new series, Studies in Euroculture, published by Göttingen University Press. The series derives its name from the Erasmus Mundus Master of Excellence Euroculture: Europe in the Wider World, a two year programme offered by a consortium of eight European universities in collaboration with four partner universities outside Europe. This master highlights regional, national and supranational dimensions of the European democrati...

  9. Existence of undiscovered Uranian satellites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boice, D.C.

    1986-04-01

    Structure in the Uranian ring system as observed in recent occultations may contain indirect evidence for the existence of undiscovered satellites. Using the Alfven and Arrhenius (1975, 1976) scenario for the formation of planetary systems, the orbital radii of up to nine hypothetical satellites interior to Miranda are computed. These calculations should provide interesting comparisons when the results from the Voyager 2 encounter with Uranus are made public. 15 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab

  10. UNCITRAL: Changes to existing law

    OpenAIRE

    Andersson, Joakim

    2008-01-01

    The UNCITRAL Convention on Contracts for the International Carriage of Goods [wholly or partly] by Sea has an ambition of replacing current maritime regimes and expands the application of the Convention to include also multimodal transport. This thesis questions what changes to existing law, in certain areas, the new Convention will bring compared to the current regimes. In the initial part, the thesis provides for a brief background and history of international maritime regulations and focus...

  11. Existence Results for Incompressible Magnetoelasticity

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kružík, Martin; Stefanelli, U.; Zeman, J.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 35, č. 6 (2015), s. 2615-2623 ISSN 1078-0947 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-18652S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : magnetoelasticity * magnetostrictive solids * incompressibility * existence of minimizers * quasistatic evolution * energetic solution Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.127, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/MTR/kruzik-0443017.pdf

  12. Dual long memory of inflation and test of the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    LIU Jinquan; ZHENG Tingguo; SUI Jianli

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses the ARFIMA-FIGARCH model to investigate the China¡¯s monthly inflation rate from January 1983 to October 2005. It is found that both first moment and second moment of inflation have remarkable long memory, indicating the existence of long memory properties in both inflation level and inflation uncertainty. By the Granger-causality test on inflation rate and inflation uncertainty, it is shown that the inflation level affects the inflation uncertainty and so supports Friedman hy...

  13. Understanding and reducing statistical uncertainties in nebular abundance determinations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesson, R.; Stock, D. J.; Scicluna, P.

    2012-06-01

    Whenever observations are compared to theories, an estimate of the uncertainties associated with the observations is vital if the comparison is to be meaningful. However, many or even most determinations of temperatures, densities and abundances in photoionized nebulae do not quote the associated uncertainty. Those that do typically propagate the uncertainties using analytical techniques which rely on assumptions that generally do not hold. Motivated by this issue, we have developed Nebular Empirical Analysis Tool (NEAT), a new code for calculating chemical abundances in photoionized nebulae. The code carries out a standard analysis of lists of emission lines using long-established techniques to estimate the amount of interstellar extinction, calculate representative temperatures and densities, compute ionic abundances from both collisionally excited lines and recombination lines, and finally to estimate total elemental abundances using an ionization correction scheme. NEATuses a Monte Carlo technique to robustly propagate uncertainties from line flux measurements through to the derived abundances. We show that, for typical observational data, this approach is superior to analytic estimates of uncertainties. NEAT also accounts for the effect of upward biasing on measurements of lines with low signal-to-noise ratio, allowing us to accurately quantify the effect of this bias on abundance determinations. We find not only that the effect can result in significant overestimates of heavy element abundances derived from weak lines, but also that taking it into account reduces the uncertainty of these abundance determinations. Finally, we investigate the effect of possible uncertainties in R, the ratio of selective-to-total extinction, on abundance determinations. We find that the uncertainty due to this parameter is negligible compared to the statistical uncertainties due to typical line flux measurement uncertainties.

  14. Summary from the epistemic uncertainty workshop: consensus amid diversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferson, Scott; Joslyn, Cliff A.; Helton, Jon C.; Oberkampf, William L.; Sentz, Kari

    2004-01-01

    The 'Epistemic Uncertainty Workshop' sponsored by Sandia National Laboratories was held in Albuquerque, New Mexico, on 6-7 August 2002. The workshop was organized around a set of Challenge Problems involving both epistemic and aleatory uncertainty that the workshop participants were invited to solve and discuss. This concluding article in a special issue of Reliability Engineering and System Safety based on the workshop discusses the intent of the Challenge Problems, summarizes some discussions from the workshop, and provides a technical comparison among the papers in this special issue. The Challenge Problems were computationally simple models that were intended as vehicles for the illustration and comparison of conceptual and numerical techniques for use in analyses that involve: (i) epistemic uncertainty, (ii) aggregation of multiple characterizations of epistemic uncertainty, (iii) combination of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty, and (iv) models with repeated parameters. There was considerable diversity of opinion at the workshop about both methods and fundamental issues, and yet substantial consensus about what the answers to the problems were, and even about how each of the four issues should be addressed. Among the technical approaches advanced were probability theory, Dempster-Shafer evidence theory, random sets, sets of probability measures, imprecise coherent probabilities, coherent lower previsions, probability boxes, possibility theory, fuzzy sets, joint distribution tableaux, polynomial chaos expansions, and info-gap models. Although some participants maintained that a purely probabilistic approach is fully capable of accounting for all forms of uncertainty, most agreed that the treatment of epistemic uncertainty introduces important considerations and that the issues underlying the Challenge Problems are legitimate and significant. Topics identified as meriting additional research include elicitation of uncertainty representations, aggregation of

  15. Aspects of uncertainty analysis in accident consequence modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1981-01-01

    Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of model predictions. In the present paper, we address three aspects of uncertainty in models used to assess the radiological impact to humans: uncertainties resulting from the natural variability in human biological parameters; the propagation of parameter variability by mathematical models; and comparison of model predictions to observational data

  16. Quantifying uncertainties in the structural response of SSME blades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagpal, Vinod K.

    1987-01-01

    To quantify the uncertainties associated with the geometry and material properties of a Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turbopump blade, a computer code known as STAEBL was used. A finite element model of the blade used 80 triangular shell elements with 55 nodes and five degrees of freedom per node. The whole study was simulated on the computer and no real experiments were conducted. The structural response has been evaluated in terms of three variables which are natural frequencies, root (maximum) stress, and blade tip displacements. The results of the study indicate that only the geometric uncertainties have significant effects on the response. Uncertainties in material properties have insignificant effects.

  17. Insurance Applications of Active Fault Maps Showing Epistemic Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    high deductible is in force, this requires estimation of the epistemic uncertainty on fault geometry and activity. Transport infrastructure insurance is of practical interest in seismic countries. On the North Anatolian Fault in Turkey, there is uncertainty over an unbroken segment between the eastern end of the Dazce Fault and Bolu. This may have ruptured during the 1944 earthquake. Existing hazard maps may simply use a question mark to flag uncertainty. However, a far more informative type of hazard map might express spatial variations in the confidence level associated with a fault map. Through such visual guidance, an insurance risk analyst would be better placed to price earthquake cover, allowing for epistemic uncertainty.

  18. Davis-Besse uncertainty study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, C.B.

    1987-08-01

    The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results

  19. Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This status report on decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties is based on a review of recent literature and materials presented at NEA meetings in 2003 and 2004, and particularly at a topical session organised in November 2004 on funding issues associated with the decommissioning of nuclear power facilities. The report also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). This report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems

  20. Correlated uncertainties in integral data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCracken, A.K.

    1978-01-01

    The use of correlated uncertainties in calculational data is shown in cases investigated to lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of calculated quantities of importance to reactor design. It is stressed however that such reductions are likely to be important in a minority of cases of practical interest. The effect of uncertainties in detector cross-sections is considered and is seen to be, in some cases, of equal importance to that in the data used in calculations. Numerical investigations have been limited by the sparse information available on data correlations; some comparisons made of these data reveal quite large inconsistencies for both detector cross-sections and cross-section of interest for reactor calculations

  1. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project

  2. GENERAL RISKS AND UNCERTAINTIES OF REPORTING AND MANAGEMENT REPORTING RISKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAMELIA I. LUNGU

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Highlighting risks and uncertainties reporting based on a literature review research. Objectives: The delimitation of risk management models and uncertainties in fundamental research. Research method: Fundamental research study directed to identify the relevant risks’ models presented in entities’ financial statements. Uncertainty is one of the fundamental coordinates of our world. As showed J.K. Galbraith (1978, the world now lives under the age of uncertainty. Moreover, we can say that contemporary society development could be achieved by taking decisions under uncertainty, though, risks. Growing concern for the study of uncertainty, its effects and precautions led to the rather recent emergence of a new science, science of hazards (les cindyniques - l.fr. (Kenvern, 1991. Current analysis of risk are dominated by Beck’s (1992 notion that a risk society now exists whereby we have become more concerned about our impact upon nature than the impact of nature upon us. Clearly, risk permeates most aspects of corporate but also of regular life decision-making and few can predict with any precision the future. The risk is almost always a major variable in real-world corporate decision-making, and managers that ignore it are in a real peril. In these circumstances, a possible answer is assuming financial discipline with an appropriate system of incentives.

  3. Compilation of information on uncertainties involved in deposition modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewellen, W.S.; Varma, A.K.; Sheng, Y.P.

    1985-04-01

    The current generation of dispersion models contains very simple parameterizations of deposition processes. The analysis here looks at the physical mechanisms governing these processes in an attempt to see if more valid parameterizations are available and what level of uncertainty is involved in either these simple parameterizations or any more advanced parameterization. The report is composed of three parts. The first, on dry deposition model sensitivity, provides an estimate of the uncertainty existing in current estimates of the deposition velocity due to uncertainties in independent variables such as meteorological stability, particle size, surface chemical reactivity and canopy structure. The range of uncertainty estimated for an appropriate dry deposition velocity for a plume generated by a nuclear power plant accident is three orders of magnitude. The second part discusses the uncertainties involved in precipitation scavenging rates for effluents resulting from a nuclear reactor accident. The conclusion is that major uncertainties are involved both as a result of the natural variability of the atmospheric precipitation process and due to our incomplete understanding of the underlying process. The third part involves a review of the important problems associated with modeling the interaction between the atmosphere and a forest. It gives an indication of the magnitude of the problem involved in modeling dry deposition in such environments. Separate analytics have been done for each section and are contained in the EDB

  4. Statistically based uncertainty assessments in nuclear risk analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Spencer, F.W.; Diegert, K.V.; Easterling, R.G.

    1987-01-01

    Over the last decade, the problems of estimation and uncertainty assessment in probabilistics risk assessment (PRAs) have been addressed in a variety of NRC and industry-sponsored projects. These problems have received attention because of a recognition that major uncertainties in risk estimation exist, which can be reduced by collecting more and better data and other information, and because of a recognition that better methods for assessing these uncertainties are needed. In particular, a clear understanding of the nature and magnitude of various sources of uncertainty is needed to facilitate descision-making on possible plant changes and research options. Recent PRAs have employed methods of probability propagation, sometimes involving the use of Bayes Theorem, and intended to formalize the use of ''engineering judgment'' or ''expert opinion.'' All sources, or feelings, of uncertainty are expressed probabilistically, so that uncertainty analysis becomes simply a matter of probability propagation. Alternatives to forcing a probabilistic framework at all stages of a PRA are a major concern in this paper, however

  5. Uncertainty analysis in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Sullivan, Terry [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Nuclear waste disposal is a very complex subject which requires the study of many different fields of science, like hydro geology, meteorology, geochemistry, etc. In addition, the waste disposal facilities are designed to last for a very long period of time. Both of these conditions make safety assessment projections filled with uncertainty. This paper addresses approaches for treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment modeling due to the variability of data and some current approaches used to deal with this problem. (author) 13 refs.; e-mail: lemos at bnl.gov; sulliva1 at bnl.gov

  6. Awe, uncertainty, and agency detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Graham, Jesse

    2014-01-01

    Across five studies, we found that awe increases both supernatural belief (Studies 1, 2, and 5) and intentional-pattern perception (Studies 3 and 4)-two phenomena that have been linked to agency detection, or the tendency to interpret events as the consequence of intentional and purpose-driven agents. Effects were both directly and conceptually replicated, and mediational analyses revealed that these effects were driven by the influence of awe on tolerance for uncertainty. Experiences of awe decreased tolerance for uncertainty, which, in turn, increased the tendency to believe in nonhuman agents and to perceive human agency in random events.

  7. Significance of the existing normative and technical documentation to promote ecologic safety

    OpenAIRE

    Fatima Ermakhanova

    2010-01-01

    The author justifies the need to develop new standards for gas purification process. It is believed that these standards should assume introduction of new resource-saving technologies and also meet the modern international requirements to improve environmental safety. The article shows the need for the introduction and development of environmental management system according to ISO 14000 standards to reduce the industrial impact of gas deposits on the environment.

  8. Implications of nuclear data uncertainties to reactor design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greebler, P.; Hutchins, B.A.; Cowan, C.L.

    1970-01-01

    Uncertainties in nuclear data require significant allowances to be made in the design and the operating conditions of reactor cores and of shielded-reactor-plant and fuel-processing systems. These allowances result in direct cost increases due to overdesign of components and equipment and reduced core and fuel operating performance. Compromising the allowances for data uncertainties has indirect cost implications due to increased risks of failure to meet plant and fuel performance objectives, with warrantees involved in some cases, and to satisfy licensed safety requirements. Fast breeders are the most sensitive power reactors to the uncertainties in nuclear data over the neutron energy range of interest for fission reactors, and this paper focuses on the implications of the data uncertainties to design and operation of fast breeder reactors and fuel-processing systems. The current status of uncertainty in predicted physics parameters due to data uncertainties is reviewed and compared with the situation in 1966 and that projected for within the next two years due to anticipated data improvements. Implications of the uncertainties in the predicted physics parameters to design and operation are discussed for both a near-term prototype or demonstration breeder plant (∼300 MW(e)) and a longer-term large (∼1000 MW(e)) plant. Significant improvements in the nuclear data have been made during the past three years, the most important of these to fast power reactors being the 239 Pu alpha below 15 keV. The most important remaining specific data uncertainties are illustrated by their individual contributions to the computational uncertainty of selected physics parameters, and recommended priorities and accuracy requirements for improved data are presented

  9. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wells, C.

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment's final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  10. Measurement uncertainty analysis techniques applied to PV performance measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wells, C

    1992-10-01

    The purpose of this presentation is to provide a brief introduction to measurement uncertainty analysis, outline how it is done, and illustrate uncertainty analysis with examples drawn from the PV field, with particular emphasis toward its use in PV performance measurements. The uncertainty information we know and state concerning a PV performance measurement or a module test result determines, to a significant extent, the value and quality of that result. What is measurement uncertainty analysis? It is an outgrowth of what has commonly been called error analysis. But uncertainty analysis, a more recent development, gives greater insight into measurement processes and tests, experiments, or calibration results. Uncertainty analysis gives us an estimate of the I interval about a measured value or an experiment`s final result within which we believe the true value of that quantity will lie. Why should we take the time to perform an uncertainty analysis? A rigorous measurement uncertainty analysis: Increases the credibility and value of research results; allows comparisons of results from different labs; helps improve experiment design and identifies where changes are needed to achieve stated objectives (through use of the pre-test analysis); plays a significant role in validating measurements and experimental results, and in demonstrating (through the post-test analysis) that valid data have been acquired; reduces the risk of making erroneous decisions; demonstrates quality assurance and quality control measures have been accomplished; define Valid Data as data having known and documented paths of: Origin, including theory; measurements; traceability to measurement standards; computations; uncertainty analysis of results.

  11. Global impact of uncertainties in China’s gas market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xunpeng, Shi; Variam, Hari Malamakkavu Padinjare; Tao, Jacqueline

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the uncertainties in Chinese gas markets, analyze the reasons and quantify their impact on the world gas market. A literature review found significant variability among the outlooks on China's gas sector. Further assessment found that uncertainties in economic growth, structural change in markets, environmental regulations, price and institutional changes contribute to the uncertainties. The analysis of China’s demand and supply uncertainties with a world gas-trading model found significant changes in global production, trade patterns and spot prices, with pipeline exporters being most affected. China's domestic production and pipeline imports from Central Asia are the major buffers that can offset much of the uncertainties. The study finds an asymmetric phenomenon. Pipeline imports are responding to China's uncertainties in both low and high demand scenarios while LNG imports are only responding to high demand scenario. The major reasons are higher TOP levels and the current practice of import only up to the minimum TOP levels for LNG, as well as a lack of liberalized gas markets. The study shows that it is necessary to create LNG markets that can respond to market dynamics, through either a reduction of TOP levels or change of pricing mechanisms to hub indexation. - Highlights: • Economic growth, regulations, reforms and shale gas cause the uncertainties. • Pipeline exporters to China and Southeast Asian and Australian LNG exporters affected the most. • China’s domestic production and pipe imports offset much of the uncertainties. • Pipeline imports are responding to China’s uncertainties in both low and high demand. • LNG imports are only responding to high demand scenario.

  12. Intrinsic position uncertainty impairs overt search performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semizer, Yelda; Michel, Melchi M

    2017-08-01

    Uncertainty regarding the position of the search target is a fundamental component of visual search. However, due to perceptual limitations of the human visual system, this uncertainty can arise from intrinsic, as well as extrinsic, sources. The current study sought to characterize the role of intrinsic position uncertainty (IPU) in overt visual search and to determine whether it significantly limits human search performance. After completing a preliminary detection experiment to characterize sensitivity as a function of visual field position, observers completed a search task that required localizing a Gabor target within a field of synthetic luminance noise. The search experiment included two clutter conditions designed to modulate the effect of IPU across search displays of varying set size. In the Cluttered condition, the display was tiled uniformly with feature clutter to maximize the effects of IPU. In the Uncluttered condition, the clutter at irrelevant locations was removed to attenuate the effects of IPU. Finally, we derived an IPU-constrained ideal searcher model, limited by the IPU measured in human observers. Ideal searchers were simulated based on the detection sensitivity and fixation sequences measured for individual human observers. The IPU-constrained ideal searcher predicted performance trends similar to those exhibited by the human observers. In the Uncluttered condition, performance decreased steeply as a function of increasing set size. However, in the Cluttered condition, the effect of IPU dominated and performance was approximately constant as a function of set size. Our findings suggest that IPU substantially limits overt search performance, especially in crowded displays.

  13. Linear Programming Problems for Generalized Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thipwiwatpotjana, Phantipa

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainty occurs when there is more than one realization that can represent an information. This dissertation concerns merely discrete realizations of an uncertainty. Different interpretations of an uncertainty and their relationships are addressed when the uncertainty is not a probability of each realization. A well known model that can handle…

  14. Incorporation of various uncertainties in dependent failure-probability estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Mitra, S.P.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes an approach that allows the incorporation of various types of uncertainties in the estimation of dependent failure (common mode failure) probability. The types of uncertainties considered are attributable to data, modeling and coupling. The method developed is applied to a class of dependent failures, i.e., multiple human failures during testing, maintenance and calibration. Estimation of these failures is critical as they have been shown to be significant contributors to core melt probability in pressurized water reactors

  15. Quantum logics with existence property

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schindler, C.

    1991-01-01

    A quantum logic (σ-orthocomplete orthomodular poset L with a convex, unital, and separating set Δ of states) is said to have the existence property if the expectation functionals on lin(Δ) associated with the bounded observables of L form a vector space. Classical quantum logics as well as the Hilbert space logics of traditional quantum mechanics have this property. The author shows that, if a quantum logic satisfies certain conditions in addition to having property E, then the number of its blocks (maximal classical subsystems) must either be one (classical logics) or uncountable (as in Hilbert space logics)

  16. Effects of utility demand-side management programs on uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirst, E.

    1994-01-01

    Electric utilities face a variety of uncertainties that complicate their long-term resource planning. These uncertainties include future economic and load growths, fuel prices, environmental and economic regulations, performance of existing power plants, cost and availability of purchased power, and the costs and performance of new demand and supply resources. As utilities increasingly turn to demand-side management (DSM) programs to provide resources, it becomes more important to analyze the interactions between these programs and the uncertainties facing utilities. This paper uses a dynamic planning model to quantify the uncertainty effects of supply-only vs DSM + supply resource portfolios. The analysis considers four sets of uncertainties: economic growth, fuel prices, the costs to build new power plants, and the costs to operate DSM programs. The two types of portfolios are tested against these four sets of uncertainties for the period 1990 to 2010. Sensitivity, scenario, and worst-case analysis methods are used. The sensitivity analyses show that the DSM + supply resource portfolio is less sensitive to unanticipated changes in economic growth, fuel prices, and power-plant construction costs than is the supply-only portfolio. The supply-only resource mix is better only with respect to uncertainties about the costs of DSM programs. The base-case analysis shows that including DSM programs in the utility's resource portfolio reduces the net present value of revenue requirements (NPV-RR) by 490 million dollars. The scenario-analysis results show an additional 30 million dollars (6%) in benefits associated with reduction in these uncertainties. In the worst-case analysis, the DSM + supply portfolio again reduces the cost penalty associated with guessing wrong for both cases, when the utility plans for high needs and learns it has low needs and vice versa. 20 refs

  17. A pseudo-statistical approach to treat choice uncertainty: the example of partitioning allocation methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mendoza Beltran, A.; Heijungs, R.; Guinée, J.; Tukker, A.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Despite efforts to treat uncertainty due to methodological choices in life cycle assessment (LCA) such as standardization, one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis, and analytical and statistical methods, no method exists that propagate this source of uncertainty for all relevant processes

  18. Developing scales measuring disorder-specific intolerance of uncertainty (DSIU) : a new perspective on transdiagnostic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thibodeau, Michel A; Carleton, R Nicholas; McEvoy, Peter M; Zvolensky, Michael J; Brandt, Charles P; Boelen, Paul A; Mahoney, Alison E J; Deacon, Brett J; Asmundson, Gordon J G

    Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a construct of growing prominence in literature on anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder. Existing measures of IU do not define the uncertainty that respondents perceive as distressing. To address this limitation, we developed eight scales measuring

  19. Geological-structural models used in SR 97. Uncertainty analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saksa, P.; Nummela, J. [FINTACT Oy (Finland)

    1998-10-01

    The uncertainty of geological-structural models was studied for the three sites in SR 97, called Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg. The evaluation covered both regional and site scale models, the emphasis being placed on fracture zones in the site scale. Uncertainty is a natural feature of all geoscientific investigations. It originates from measurements (errors in data, sampling limitations, scale variation) and conceptualisation (structural geometries and properties, ambiguous geometric or parametric solutions) to name the major ones. The structures of A-, B- and Ceberg are fracture zones of varying types. No major differences in the conceptualisation between the sites were noted. One source of uncertainty in the site models is the non-existence of fracture and zone information in the scale from 10 to 300 - 1000 m. At Aberg the development of the regional model has been performed very thoroughly. At the site scale one major source of uncertainty is that a clear definition of the target area is missing. Structures encountered in the boreholes are well explained and an interdisciplinary approach in interpretation have taken place. Beberg and Ceberg regional models contain relatively large uncertainties due to the investigation methodology and experience available at that time. In site scale six additional structures were proposed both to Beberg and Ceberg to variant analysis of these sites. Both sites include uncertainty in the form of many non-interpreted fractured sections along the boreholes. Statistical analysis gives high occurrences of structures for all three sites: typically 20 - 30 structures/km{sup 3}. Aberg has highest structural frequency, Beberg comes next and Ceberg has the lowest. The borehole configuration, orientations and surveying goals were inspected to find whether preferences or factors causing bias were present. Data from Aberg supports the conclusion that Aespoe sub volume would be an anomalously fractured, tectonised unit of its own. This means that

  20. Geological-structural models used in SR 97. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saksa, P.; Nummela, J.

    1998-10-01

    The uncertainty of geological-structural models was studied for the three sites in SR 97, called Aberg, Beberg and Ceberg. The evaluation covered both regional and site scale models, the emphasis being placed on fracture zones in the site scale. Uncertainty is a natural feature of all geoscientific investigations. It originates from measurements (errors in data, sampling limitations, scale variation) and conceptualisation (structural geometries and properties, ambiguous geometric or parametric solutions) to name the major ones. The structures of A-, B- and Ceberg are fracture zones of varying types. No major differences in the conceptualisation between the sites were noted. One source of uncertainty in the site models is the non-existence of fracture and zone information in the scale from 10 to 300 - 1000 m. At Aberg the development of the regional model has been performed very thoroughly. At the site scale one major source of uncertainty is that a clear definition of the target area is missing. Structures encountered in the boreholes are well explained and an interdisciplinary approach in interpretation have taken place. Beberg and Ceberg regional models contain relatively large uncertainties due to the investigation methodology and experience available at that time. In site scale six additional structures were proposed both to Beberg and Ceberg to variant analysis of these sites. Both sites include uncertainty in the form of many non-interpreted fractured sections along the boreholes. Statistical analysis gives high occurrences of structures for all three sites: typically 20 - 30 structures/km 3 . Aberg has highest structural frequency, Beberg comes next and Ceberg has the lowest. The borehole configuration, orientations and surveying goals were inspected to find whether preferences or factors causing bias were present. Data from Aberg supports the conclusion that Aespoe sub volume would be an anomalously fractured, tectonised unit of its own. This means that the

  1. Uncertainty, probability and information-gaps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses two main ideas. First, we focus on info-gap uncertainty, as distinct from probability. Info-gap theory is especially suited for modelling and managing uncertainty in system models: we invest all our knowledge in formulating the best possible model; this leaves the modeller with very faulty and fragmentary information about the variation of reality around that optimal model. Second, we examine the interdependence between uncertainty modelling and decision-making. Good uncertainty modelling requires contact with the end-use, namely, with the decision-making application of the uncertainty model. The most important avenue of uncertainty-propagation is from initial data- and model-uncertainties into uncertainty in the decision-domain. Two questions arise. Is the decision robust to the initial uncertainties? Is the decision prone to opportune windfall success? We apply info-gap robustness and opportunity functions to the analysis of representation and propagation of uncertainty in several of the Sandia Challenge Problems

  2. The effect of uncertainty and cooperative behavior on operational performance: Evidence from Brazilian firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Pereira Zamith Brito

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to examine the effect of managers’ uncertainty on cooperative behavior in interorganizational relationships, and how this affects operational performance. We conducted a survey with 225 Brazilian managers, and analyzed data using confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling. Results present: a a negative influence of uncertainty of state on operational performance; b a positive influence of uncertainty of effect on uncertainty of response; c a significant influence of uncertainty of response on cooperative behavior; and d a positive influence of cooperative behavior on performance. The results indicated that cooperation and uncertainty accounted for 18.8% of the variability of operational performance. Considering the uncertainty that plagues Latin societies, this study can help to create more efficient ways to deal with the phenomenon. Rather than turning a blind eye to uncertainty, our study underscores it and treats it like another business environment issue.

  3. Analogy as a strategy for supporting complex problem solving under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Joel; Paletz, Susannah B F; Schunn, Christian D

    2012-11-01

    Complex problem solving in naturalistic environments is fraught with uncertainty, which has significant impacts on problem-solving behavior. Thus, theories of human problem solving should include accounts of the cognitive strategies people bring to bear to deal with uncertainty during problem solving. In this article, we present evidence that analogy is one such strategy. Using statistical analyses of the temporal dynamics between analogy and expressed uncertainty in the naturalistic problem-solving conversations among scientists on the Mars Rover Mission, we show that spikes in expressed uncertainty reliably predict analogy use (Study 1) and that expressed uncertainty reduces to baseline levels following analogy use (Study 2). In addition, in Study 3, we show with qualitative analyses that this relationship between uncertainty and analogy is not due to miscommunication-related uncertainty but, rather, is primarily concentrated on substantive problem-solving issues. Finally, we discuss a hypothesis about how analogy might serve as an uncertainty reduction strategy in naturalistic complex problem solving.

  4. Optimization Under Uncertainty for Wake Steering Strategies: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quick, Julian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Annoni, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); King, Ryan N [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Dykes, Katherine L [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Fleming, Paul A [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ning, Andrew [Brigham Young University

    2017-05-01

    Wind turbines in a wind power plant experience significant power losses because of aerodynamic interactions between turbines. One control strategy to reduce these losses is known as 'wake steering,' in which upstream turbines are yawed to direct wakes away from downstream turbines. Previous wake steering research has assumed perfect information, however, there can be significant uncertainty in many aspects of the problem, including wind inflow and various turbine measurements. Uncertainty has significant implications for performance of wake steering strategies. Consequently, the authors formulate and solve an optimization under uncertainty (OUU) problem for finding optimal wake steering strategies in the presence of yaw angle uncertainty. The OUU wake steering strategy is demonstrated on a two-turbine test case and on the utility-scale, offshore Princess Amalia Wind Farm. When we accounted for yaw angle uncertainty in the Princess Amalia Wind Farm case, inflow-direction-specific OUU solutions produced between 0% and 1.4% more power than the deterministically optimized steering strategies, resulting in an overall annual average improvement of 0.2%. More importantly, the deterministic optimization is expected to perform worse and with more downside risk than the OUU result when realistic uncertainty is taken into account. Additionally, the OUU solution produces fewer extreme yaw situations than the deterministic solution.

  5. Evaluation of Uncertainties in the Determination of Phosphorus by RNAA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rick L. Paul

    2000-01-01

    A radiochemical neutron activation analysis (RNAA) procedure for the determination of phosphorus in metals and other materials has been developed and critically evaluated. Uncertainties evaluated as type A include those arising from measurement replication, yield determination, neutron self-shielding, irradiation geometry, measurement of the quantity for concentration normalization (sample mass, area, etc.), and analysis of standards. Uncertainties evaluated as type B include those arising from beta contamination corrections, beta decay curve fitting, and beta self-absorption corrections. The evaluation of uncertainties in the determination of phosphorus is illustrated for three different materials in Table I. The metal standard reference materials (SRMs) 2175 and 861 were analyzed for value assignment of phosphorus; implanted silicon was analyzed to evaluate the technique for certification of phosphorus. The most significant difference in the error evaluation of the three materials lies in the type B uncertainties. The relatively uncomplicated matrix of the high-purity silicon allows virtually complete purification of phosphorus from other beta emitters; hence, minimal contamination correction is needed. Furthermore, because the chemistry is less rigorous, the carrier yield is more reproducible, and self-absorption corrections are less significant. Improvements in the chemical purification procedures for phosphorus in complex matrices will decrease the type B uncertainties for all samples. Uncertainties in the determination of carrier yield, the most significant type A error in the analysis of the silicon, also need to be evaluated more rigorously and minimized in the future

  6. Subspace-based Inverse Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Data Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khuwaileh, B.A., E-mail: bakhuwai@ncsu.edu; Abdel-Khalik, H.S.

    2015-01-15

    Safety analysis and design optimization depend on the accurate prediction of various reactor attributes. Predictions can be enhanced by reducing the uncertainty associated with the attributes of interest. An inverse problem can be defined and solved to assess the sources of uncertainty, and experimental effort can be subsequently directed to further improve the uncertainty associated with these sources. In this work a subspace-based algorithm for inverse sensitivity/uncertainty quantification (IS/UQ) has been developed to enable analysts account for all sources of nuclear data uncertainties in support of target accuracy assessment-type analysis. An approximate analytical solution of the optimization problem is used to guide the search for the dominant uncertainty subspace. By limiting the search to a subspace, the degrees of freedom available for the optimization search are significantly reduced. A quarter PWR fuel assembly is modeled and the accuracy of the multiplication factor and the fission reaction rate are used as reactor attributes whose uncertainties are to be reduced. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithm. Our ongoing work is focusing on extending the proposed algorithm to account for various forms of feedback, e.g., thermal-hydraulics and depletion effects.

  7. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in nuclear accident consequence assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karlberg, Olof.

    1989-01-01

    This report contains the results of a four year project in research contracts with the Nordic Cooperation in Nuclear Safety and the National Institute for Radiation Protection. An uncertainty/sensitivity analysis methodology consisting of Latin Hypercube sampling and regression analysis was applied to an accident consequence model. A number of input parameters were selected and the uncertainties related to these parameter were estimated within a Nordic group of experts. Individual doses, collective dose, health effects and their related uncertainties were then calculated for three release scenarios and for a representative sample of meteorological situations. From two of the scenarios the acute phase after an accident were simulated and from one the long time consequences. The most significant parameters were identified. The outer limits of the calculated uncertainty distributions are large and will grow to several order of magnitudes for the low probability consequences. The uncertainty in the expectation values are typical a factor 2-5 (1 Sigma). The variation in the model responses due to the variation of the weather parameters is fairly equal to the parameter uncertainty induced variation. The most important parameters showed out to be different for each pathway of exposure, which could be expected. However, the overall most important parameters are the wet deposition coefficient and the shielding factors. A general discussion of the usefulness of uncertainty analysis in consequence analysis is also given. (au)

  8. Cost uncertainty for different levels of technology maturity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeMuth, S.F.; Franklin, A.L.

    1996-01-01

    It is difficult at best to apply a single methodology for estimating cost uncertainties related to technologies of differing maturity. While highly mature technologies may have significant performance and manufacturing cost data available, less well developed technologies may be defined in only conceptual terms. Regardless of the degree of technical maturity, often a cost estimate relating to application of the technology may be required to justify continued funding for development. Yet, a cost estimate without its associated uncertainty lacks the information required to assess the economic risk. For this reason, it is important for the developer to provide some type of uncertainty along with a cost estimate. This study demonstrates how different methodologies for estimating uncertainties can be applied to cost estimates for technologies of different maturities. For a less well developed technology an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate can be based on a sensitivity analysis; whereas, an uncertainty analysis of the cost estimate for a well developed technology can be based on an error propagation technique from classical statistics. It was decided to demonstrate these uncertainty estimation techniques with (1) an investigation of the additional cost of remediation due to beyond baseline, nearly complete, waste heel retrieval from underground storage tanks (USTs) at Hanford; and (2) the cost related to the use of crystalline silico-titanate (CST) rather than the baseline CS100 ion exchange resin for cesium separation from UST waste at Hanford

  9. Chapter 3: Traceability and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McEwen, Malcolm

    2014-01-01

    Chapter 3 presents: an introduction; Traceability (measurement standard, role of the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures, Secondary Standards Laboratories, documentary standards and traceability as process review); Uncertainty (Example 1 - Measurement, M raw (SSD), Example 2 - Calibration data, N D.w 60 Co, kQ, Example 3 - Correction factor, P TP ) and Conclusion

  10. Competitive Capacity Investment under Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    X. Li (Xishu); R.A. Zuidwijk (Rob); M.B.M. de Koster (René); R. Dekker (Rommert)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractWe consider a long-term capacity investment problem in a competitive market under demand uncertainty. Two firms move sequentially in the competition and a firm’s capacity decision interacts with the other firm’s current and future capacity. Throughout the investment race, a firm can

  11. Uncertainty quantification and error analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Higdon, Dave M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Anderson, Mark C [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Habib, Salman [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Klein, Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Berliner, Mark [OHIO STATE UNIV.; Covey, Curt [LLNL; Ghattas, Omar [UNIV OF TEXAS; Graziani, Carlo [UNIV OF CHICAGO; Seager, Mark [LLNL; Sefcik, Joseph [LLNL; Stark, Philip [UC/BERKELEY; Stewart, James [SNL

    2010-01-01

    UQ studies all sources of error and uncertainty, including: systematic and stochastic measurement error; ignorance; limitations of theoretical models; limitations of numerical representations of those models; limitations on the accuracy and reliability of computations, approximations, and algorithms; and human error. A more precise definition for UQ is suggested below.

  12. Uncertainties in radioecological assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F.O.; Miller, C.W.; Ng, Y.C.

    1983-01-01

    Environmental radiological assessments rely heavily on the use of mathematical models. The predictions of these models are inherently uncertain because models are inexact representations of real systems. The major sources of this uncertainty are related to bias in model formulation and imprecision in parameter estimation. The magnitude of uncertainty is a function of the questions asked of the model and the specific radionuclides and exposure pathways of dominant importance. It is concluded that models developed as research tools should be distinguished from models developed for assessment applications. Furthermore, increased model complexity does not necessarily guarantee increased accuracy. To improve the realism of assessment modeling, stochastic procedures are recommended that translate uncertain parameter estimates into a distribution of predicted values. These procedures also permit the importance of model parameters to be ranked according to their relative contribution to the overall predicted uncertainty. Although confidence in model predictions can be improved through site-specific parameter estimation and increased model validation, health risk factors and internal dosimetry models will probably remain important contributors to the amount of uncertainty that is irreducible. 41 references, 4 figures, 4 tables

  13. Numerical modeling of economic uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schjær-Jacobsen, Hans

    2007-01-01

    Representation and modeling of economic uncertainty is addressed by different modeling methods, namely stochastic variables and probabilities, interval analysis, and fuzzy numbers, in particular triple estimates. Focusing on discounted cash flow analysis numerical results are presented, comparisons...... are made between alternative modeling methods, and characteristics of the methods are discussed....

  14. Uncertainty covariances in robotics applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, D.L.

    1984-01-01

    The application of uncertainty covariance matrices in the analysis of robot trajectory errors is explored. First, relevant statistical concepts are reviewed briefly. Then, a simple, hypothetical robot model is considered to illustrate methods for error propagation and performance test data evaluation. The importance of including error correlations is emphasized

  15. Regulating renewable resources under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Lars Gårn

    ) that a pro-quota result under uncertainty about prices and marginal costs is unlikely, requiring that the resource growth function is highly concave locally around the optimum and, 3) that quotas are always preferred if uncertainly about underlying structural economic parameters dominates. These results...... showing that quotas are preferred in a number of situations qualify the pro fee message dominating prior studies....

  16. Uncertainty in the Real World

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Resonance – Journal of Science Education; Volume 4; Issue 2. Uncertainty in the Real World - Fuzzy Sets. Satish Kumar. General Article Volume 4 Issue 2 February 1999 pp 37-47. Fulltext. Click here to view fulltext PDF. Permanent link: https://www.ias.ac.in/article/fulltext/reso/004/02/0037-0047 ...

  17. Uncertainty of dustfall monitoring results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin A. van Nierop

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Fugitive dust has the ability to cause a nuisance and pollute the ambient environment, particularly from human activities including construction and industrial sites and mining operations. As such, dustfall monitoring has occurred for many decades in South Africa; little has been published on the repeatability, uncertainty, accuracy and precision of dustfall monitoring. Repeatability assesses the consistency associated with the results of a particular measurement under the same conditions; the consistency of the laboratory is assessed to determine the uncertainty associated with dustfall monitoring conducted by the laboratory. The aim of this study was to improve the understanding of the uncertainty in dustfall monitoring; thereby improving the confidence in dustfall monitoring. Uncertainty of dustfall monitoring was assessed through a 12-month study of 12 sites that were located on the boundary of the study area. Each site contained a directional dustfall sampler, which was modified by removing the rotating lid, with four buckets (A, B, C and D installed. Having four buckets on one stand allows for each bucket to be exposed to the same conditions, for the same period of time; therefore, should have equal amounts of dust deposited in these buckets. The difference in the weight (mg of the dust recorded from each bucket at each respective site was determined using the American Society for Testing and Materials method D1739 (ASTM D1739. The variability of the dust would provide the confidence level of dustfall monitoring when reporting to clients.

  18. Knowledge Uncertainty and Composed Classifier

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana; Ocelíková, E.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 1, č. 2 (2007), s. 101-105 ISSN 1998-0140 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Boosting architecture * contextual modelling * composed classifier * knowledge management, * knowledge * uncertainty Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science

  19. Uncertainty propagation in nuclear forensics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pommé, S.; Jerome, S.M.; Venchiarutti, C.

    2014-01-01

    Uncertainty propagation formulae are presented for age dating in support of nuclear forensics. The age of radioactive material in this context refers to the time elapsed since a particular radionuclide was chemically separated from its decay product(s). The decay of the parent radionuclide and ingrowth of the daughter nuclide are governed by statistical decay laws. Mathematical equations allow calculation of the age of specific nuclear material through the atom ratio between parent and daughter nuclides, or through the activity ratio provided that the daughter nuclide is also unstable. The derivation of the uncertainty formulae of the age may present some difficulty to the user community and so the exact solutions, some approximations, a graphical representation and their interpretation are presented in this work. Typical nuclides of interest are actinides in the context of non-proliferation commitments. The uncertainty analysis is applied to a set of important parent–daughter pairs and the need for more precise half-life data is examined. - Highlights: • Uncertainty propagation formulae for age dating with nuclear chronometers. • Applied to parent–daughter pairs used in nuclear forensics. • Investigated need for better half-life data

  20. WASH-1400: quantifying the uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Erdmann, R.C.; Leverenz, F.L. Jr.; Lellouche, G.S.

    1981-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to focus on the limitations of the WASH-1400 analysis in estimating the risk from light water reactors (LWRs). This assessment attempts to modify the quantification of the uncertainty in and estimate of risk as presented by the RSS (reactor safety study). 8 refs

  1. Model uncertainty in growth empirics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Prüfer, P.

    2008-01-01

    This thesis applies so-called Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to three different economic questions substantially exposed to model uncertainty. Chapter 2 addresses a major issue of modern development economics: the analysis of the determinants of pro-poor growth (PPG), which seeks to combine high

  2. Determining Semantically Related Significant Genes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taha, Kamal

    2014-01-01

    GO relation embodies some aspects of existence dependency. If GO term xis existence-dependent on GO term y, the presence of y implies the presence of x. Therefore, the genes annotated with the function of the GO term y are usually functionally and semantically related to the genes annotated with the function of the GO term x. A large number of gene set enrichment analysis methods have been developed in recent years for analyzing gene sets enrichment. However, most of these methods overlook the structural dependencies between GO terms in GO graph by not considering the concept of existence dependency. We propose in this paper a biological search engine called RSGSearch that identifies enriched sets of genes annotated with different functions using the concept of existence dependency. We observe that GO term xcannot be existence-dependent on GO term y, if x- and y- have the same specificity (biological characteristics). After encoding into a numeric format the contributions of GO terms annotating target genes to the semantics of their lowest common ancestors (LCAs), RSGSearch uses microarray experiment to identify the most significant LCA that annotates the result genes. We evaluated RSGSearch experimentally and compared it with five gene set enrichment systems. Results showed marked improvement.

  3. Charm quark mass with calibrated uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erler, Jens [Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Instituto de Fisica, Mexico, DF (Mexico); Masjuan, Pere [Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, Grup de Fisica Teorica, Departament de Fisica, Barcelona (Spain); Institut de Fisica d' Altes Energies (IFAE), The Barcelona Institute of Science and Technology (BIST), Barcelona (Spain); Spiesberger, Hubert [Johannes Gutenberg-Universitaet, PRISMA Cluster of Excellence, Institut fuer Physik, Mainz (Germany); University of Cape Town, Centre for Theoretical and Mathematical Physics and Department of Physics, Rondebosch (South Africa)

    2017-02-15

    We determine the charm quark mass m{sub c} from QCD sum rules of the moments of the vector current correlator calculated in perturbative QCD at O(α{sub s}{sup 3}). Only experimental data for the charm resonances below the continuum threshold are needed in our approach, while the continuum contribution is determined by requiring self-consistency between various sum rules, including the one for the zeroth moment. Existing data from the continuum region can then be used to bound the theoretic uncertainty. Our result is m{sub c}(m{sub c}) = 1272 ± 8 MeV for α{sub s}(M{sub Z}) = 0.1182, where the central value is in very good agreement with other recent determinations based on the relativistic sum rule approach. On the other hand, there is considerably less agreement regarding the theory dominated uncertainty and we pay special attention to the question how to quantify and justify it. (orig.)

  4. Towards Thermodynamics with Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moussa, Mohamed; Farag Ali, Ahmed

    2014-01-01

    Various frameworks of quantum gravity predict a modification in the Heisenberg uncertainty principle to a so-called generalized uncertainty principle (GUP). Introducing quantum gravity effect makes a considerable change in the density of states inside the volume of the phase space which changes the statistical and thermodynamical properties of any physical system. In this paper we investigate the modification in thermodynamic properties of ideal gases and photon gas. The partition function is calculated and using it we calculated a considerable growth in the thermodynamical functions for these considered systems. The growth may happen due to an additional repulsive force between constitutes of gases which may be due to the existence of GUP, hence predicting a considerable increase in the entropy of the system. Besides, by applying GUP on an ideal gas in a trapped potential, it is found that GUP assumes a minimum measurable value of thermal wavelength of particles which agrees with discrete nature of the space that has been derived in previous studies from the GUP

  5. Uncertainty governance: an integrated framework for managing and communicating uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Umeki, H.; Naito, M.; Takase, H.

    2004-01-01

    Treatment of uncertainty, or in other words, reasoning with imperfect information is widely recognised as being of great importance within performance assessment (PA) of the geological disposal mainly because of the time scale of interest and spatial heterogeneity that geological environment exhibits. A wide range of formal methods have been proposed for the optimal processing of incomplete information. Many of these methods rely on the use of numerical information, the frequency based concept of probability in particular, to handle the imperfections. However, taking quantitative information as a base for models that solve the problem of handling imperfect information merely creates another problem, i.e., how to provide the quantitative information. In many situations this second problem proves more resistant to solution, and in recent years several authors have looked at a particularly ingenious way in accordance with the rules of well-founded methods such as Bayesian probability theory, possibility theory, and the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence. Those methods, while drawing inspiration from quantitative methods, do not require the kind of complete numerical information required by quantitative methods. Instead they provide information that, though less precise than that provided by quantitative techniques, is often, if not sufficient, the best that could be achieved. Rather than searching for the best method for handling all imperfect information, our strategy for uncertainty management, that is recognition and evaluation of uncertainties associated with PA followed by planning and implementation of measures to reduce them, is to use whichever method best fits the problem at hand. Such an eclectic position leads naturally to integration of the different formalisms. While uncertainty management based on the combination of semi-quantitative methods forms an important part of our framework for uncertainty governance, it only solves half of the problem

  6. Extensive neutronic sensitivity-uncertainty analysis of a fusion reactor shielding blanket

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper the results are presented of an extensive neutronic sensitivity-uncertainty study performed for the design of a shielding blanket for a next-step fusion reactor, such as ITER. A code system was used, which was developed at ECN Petten. The uncertainty in an important response parameter, the neutron heating in the inboard superconducting coils, was evaluated. Neutron transport calculations in the 100 neutron group GAM-II structure were performed using the code ANISN. For the sensitivity and uncertainty calculations the code SUSD was used. Uncertainties due to cross-section uncertainties were taken into account as well as uncertainties due to uncertainties in energy and angular distributions of scattered neutrons (SED and SAD uncertainties, respectively). The subject of direct-term uncertainties (i.e. uncertainties due to uncertainties in the kerma factors of the superconducting coils) is briefly touched upon. It is shown that SAD uncertainties, which have been largely neglected until now, contribute significantly to the total uncertainty. Moreover, the contribution of direct-term uncertainties may be large. The total uncertainty in the neutron heating, only due to Fe cross-sections, amounts to approximately 25%, which is rather large. However, uncertainty data are scarce and the data may very well be conservative. It is shown in this paper that with the code system used, sensitivity and uncertainty calculations can be performed in a straightforward way. Therefore, it is suggested that emphasis is now put on the generation of realistic, reliable covariance data for cross-sections as well as for angular and energy distributions. ((orig.))

  7. Limited entropic uncertainty as new principle of quantum physics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ion, D.B.; Ion, M.L.

    2001-01-01

    experimental illustration of the LEU-Principle is presented for the cases y=1 and q=0.5, 1, and 2. (iii) For the nonextensive quantum systems with negative q we also proved the validity of the state independent entropic uncertainty relations: exp{(1-2 1-q )/(q-1)} ≤ V θL (q). Moreover, in this case we get that the optimal Tsallis-like entropies (if they exists for q<0) provides only an important improvement of the above state independent entropic uncertainty relations. (authors)

  8. Does cold nuclear fusion exist?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brudanin, V.B.; Bystritskij, V.M.; Egorov, V.G.; Shamsutdinov, S.G.; Shyshkin, A.L.; Stolupin, V.A.; Yutlandov, I.A.

    1989-01-01

    The results of investigation of cold nuclear fusion on palladium are given both for electrolysis of heavy water D 2 O and mixture D 2 O + H 2 O) (1:1) and for palladium saturation with gaseous deuterium. The possibility of existance of this phenomenon was examined by detection of neutrons and gamma quanta from reactions: d + d → 3 He + n + 3.27 MeV, p + d → 3 He + γ + 5.5 MeV. Besides these reactions were identified by measuring the characteristic X radiation of palladium due to effect of charged products 3 He, p, t. The upper limits of the intensities of hypothetical sources of neutrons and gamma quanta at the 95% confidence level were obtained to be Q n ≤ 2x10 -2 n/sxcm 3 Pd, Q γ ≤ 2x10 -3 γ/sxcm 3 Pd. 2 refs.; 4 figs.; 2 tabs

  9. Straightening: existence, uniqueness and stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Destrade, M.; Ogden, R. W.; Sgura, I.; Vergori, L.

    2014-01-01

    One of the least studied universal deformations of incompressible nonlinear elasticity, namely the straightening of a sector of a circular cylinder into a rectangular block, is revisited here and, in particular, issues of existence and stability are addressed. Particular attention is paid to the system of forces required to sustain the large static deformation, including by the application of end couples. The influence of geometric parameters and constitutive models on the appearance of wrinkles on the compressed face of the block is also studied. Different numerical methods for solving the incremental stability problem are compared and it is found that the impedance matrix method, based on the resolution of a matrix Riccati differential equation, is the more precise. PMID:24711723

  10. Why do interstellar grains exist

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seab, C.G.; Hollenbach, D.J.; Mckee, C.F.; Tielens, A.G.G.M.

    1986-01-01

    There exists a discrepancy between calculated destruction rates of grains in the interstellar medium and postulated sources of new grains. This problem was examined by modelling the global life cycle of grains in the galaxy. The model includes: grain destruction due to supernovae shock waves; grain injection from cool stars, planetary nebulae, star formation, novae, and supernovae; grain growth by accretion in dark clouds; and a mixing scheme between phases of the interstellar medium. Grain growth in molecular clouds is considered as a mechanism or increasing the formation rate. To decrease the shock destruction rate, several new physical processes, such as partial vaporization effects in grain-grain collisions, breakdown of the small Larmor radius approximation for betatron acceleration, and relaxation of the steady-state shock assumption are included

  11. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elert, M.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  12. Learning Reward Uncertainty in the Basal Ganglia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John G Mikhael

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Learning the reliability of different sources of rewards is critical for making optimal choices. However, despite the existence of detailed theory describing how the expected reward is learned in the basal ganglia, it is not known how reward uncertainty is estimated in these circuits. This paper presents a class of models that encode both the mean reward and the spread of the rewards, the former in the difference between the synaptic weights of D1 and D2 neurons, and the latter in their sum. In the models, the tendency to seek (or avoid options with variable reward can be controlled by increasing (or decreasing the tonic level of dopamine. The models are consistent with the physiology of and synaptic plasticity in the basal ganglia, they explain the effects of dopaminergic manipulations on choices involving risks, and they make multiple experimental predictions.

  13. A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Carpena, R.; Muller, S. J.; Chu, M.; Kiker, G. A.; Perz, S. G.

    2014-12-01

    Model Model complexity resulting from the need to integrate environmental system components cannot be understated. In particular, additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through uncertainties surrounding the integrated system across decision-relevant scales. However, in spite of the difficulties that the consideration of modeling uncertainty represent for the decision process, it should not be avoided or the value and science behind the models will be undermined. These two issues; i.e., the need for coupled models that can answer the pertinent questions and the need for models that do so with sufficient certainty, are the key indicators of a model's relevance. Model relevance is inextricably linked with model complexity. Although model complexity has advanced greatly in recent years there has been little work to rigorously characterize the threshold of relevance in integrated and complex models. Formally assessing the relevance of the model in the face of increasing complexity would be valuable because there is growing unease among developers and users of complex models about the cumulative effects of various sources of uncertainty on model outputs. In particular, this issue has prompted doubt over whether the considerable effort going into further elaborating complex models will in fact yield the expected payback. New approaches have been proposed recently to evaluate the uncertainty-complexity-relevance modeling trilemma (Muller, Muñoz-Carpena and Kiker, 2011) by incorporating state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) in every step of the model development so as to quantify not only the uncertainty introduced by the addition of new environmental components, but the effect that these new components have over existing components (interactions, non-linear responses). Outputs from the analysis can also be used to quantify system resilience (stability, alternative states, thresholds or tipping

  14. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Villemereuil Pierre de

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

  15. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

  16. Experimental uncertainty estimation and statistics for data having interval uncertainty.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kreinovich, Vladik (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Oberkampf, William Louis (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ginzburg, Lev (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Ferson, Scott (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York); Hajagos, Janos (Applied Biomathematics, Setauket, New York)

    2007-05-01

    This report addresses the characterization of measurements that include epistemic uncertainties in the form of intervals. It reviews the application of basic descriptive statistics to data sets which contain intervals rather than exclusively point estimates. It describes algorithms to compute various means, the median and other percentiles, variance, interquartile range, moments, confidence limits, and other important statistics and summarizes the computability of these statistics as a function of sample size and characteristics of the intervals in the data (degree of overlap, size and regularity of widths, etc.). It also reviews the prospects for analyzing such data sets with the methods of inferential statistics such as outlier detection and regressions. The report explores the tradeoff between measurement precision and sample size in statistical results that are sensitive to both. It also argues that an approach based on interval statistics could be a reasonable alternative to current standard methods for evaluating, expressing and propagating measurement uncertainties.

  17. African anthropogenic combustion emission inventory: specificities and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekou, K.; Liousse, C.; Eric-michel, A.; Veronique, Y.; Thierno, D.; Roblou, L.; Toure, E. N.; Julien, B.

    2015-12-01

    Fossil fuel and biofuel emissions of gases and particles in Africa are expected to significantly increase in the near future, particularly due to the growth of African cities. In addition, African large savannah fires occur each year during the dry season, mainly for socio-economical purposes. In this study, we will present the most recent developments of African anthropogenic combustion emission inventories, stressing African specificities. (1)A regional fossil fuel and biofuel inventory for gases and particulates will be presented for Africa at a resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° from 1990 to 2012. For this purpose, the original database of Liousse et al. (2014) has been used after modification for emission factors and for updated regional fuel consumption including new emitter categories (waste burning, flaring) and new activity sectors (i.e. disaggregation of transport into sub-sectors including two wheel ). In terms of emission factors, new measured values will be presented and compared to litterature with a focus on aerosols. They result from measurement campaigns organized in the frame of DACCIWA European program for each kind of African specific anthropogenic sources in 2015, in Abidjan (Ivory Coast), Cotonou (Benin) and in Laboratoire d'Aérologie combustion chamber. Finally, a more detailed spatial distribution of emissions will be proposed at a country level to better take into account road distributions and population densities. (2) Large uncertainties still remain in biomass burning emission inventories estimates, especially over Africa between different datasets such as GFED and AMMABB. Sensitivity tests will be presented to investigate uncertainties in the emission inventories, applying methodologies used for AMMABB and GFED inventories respectively. Then, the relative importance of each sources (fossil fuel, biofuel and biomass burning inventories) on the budgets of carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, black and organic carbon, and volatile

  18. NICE guidelines, clinical practice and antisocial personality disorder: the ethical implications of ontological uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickersgill, M D

    2009-11-01

    The British National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) has recently (28 January 2009) released new guidelines for the diagnosis, treatment and prevention of the psychiatric category antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). Evident in these recommendations is a broader ambiguity regarding the ontology of ASPD. Although, perhaps, a mundane feature of much of medicine, in this case, ontological uncertainty has significant ethical implications as a product of the profound consequences for an individual categorised with this disorder. This paper argues that in refraining from emphasising uncertainty, NICE risks reifying a controversial category. This is particularly problematical given that the guidelines recommend the identification of individuals "at risk" of raising antisocial children. Although this paper does not argue that NICE is "wrong" in any of its recommendations, more emphasis should have been placed on discussions of the ethical implications of diagnosis and treatment, especially given the multiple uncertainties associated with ASPD. It is proposed that these important issues be examined in more detail in revisions of existing NICE recommendations, and be included in upcoming guidance. This paper thus raises key questions regarding the place and role of ethics within the current and future remit of NICE.

  19. Effect of minimal length uncertainty on the mass-radius relation of white dwarfs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Arun; Nandy, Malay K.

    2018-06-01

    Generalized uncertainty relation that carries the imprint of quantum gravity introduces a minimal length scale into the description of space-time. It effectively changes the invariant measure of the phase space through a factor (1 + βp2) - 3 so that the equation of state for an electron gas undergoes a significant modification from the ideal case. It has been shown in the literature (Rashidi 2016) that the ideal Chandrasekhar limit ceases to exist when the modified equation of state due to the generalized uncertainty is taken into account. To assess the situation in a more complete fashion, we analyze in detail the mass-radius relation of Newtonian white dwarfs whose hydrostatic equilibria are governed by the equation of state of the degenerate relativistic electron gas subjected to the generalized uncertainty principle. As the constraint of minimal length imposes a severe restriction on the availability of high momentum states, it is speculated that the central Fermi momentum cannot have values arbitrarily higher than pmax ∼β - 1 / 2. When this restriction is imposed, it is found that the system approaches limiting mass values higher than the Chandrasekhar mass upon decreasing the parameter β to a value given by a legitimate upper bound. Instead, when the more realistic restriction due to inverse β-decay is considered, it is found that the mass and radius approach the values 1.4518 M⊙ and 601.18 km near the legitimate upper bound for the parameter β.

  20. Analyzing climate change impacts on water resources under uncertainty using an integrated simulation-optimization approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, X. W.; Li, Y. P.; Nie, S.; Fan, Y. R.; Huang, G. H.

    2018-01-01

    An integrated simulation-optimization (ISO) approach is developed for assessing climate change impacts on water resources. In the ISO, uncertainties presented as both interval numbers and probability distributions can be reflected. Moreover, ISO permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. A snowmelt-precipitation-driven watershed (Kaidu watershed) in northwest China is selected as the study case for demonstrating the applicability of the proposed method. Results of meteorological projections disclose that the incremental trend of temperature (e.g., minimum and maximum values) and precipitation exist. Results also reveal that (i) the system uncertainties would significantly affect water resources allocation pattern (including target and shortage); (ii) water shortage would be enhanced from 2016 to 2070; and (iii) the more the inflow amount decreases, the higher estimated water shortage rates are. The ISO method is useful for evaluating climate change impacts within a watershed system with complicated uncertainties and helping identify appropriate water resources management strategies hedging against drought.

  1. Using the Rosenzweig frustration picture test in the study of coping behaviour in thesituation of uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena N. L’vova

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper highlights the relation between the relevance of coping behaviour and increasing interest to phenomena of uncertainty. The reviewing of coping as complicated setting notion including several levels is offered. The relevance of studying conscious and unconscious levels of coping is validated. Using coping questionnaires’ deficit of prognosis validity and the relevancy of using projective methods that are effective and useful in diagnostics of coping’ unconscious components are discussed. Due to the changes in viewing difficult life situations’ range and focusing on subjective perception of difficulties, the frustration situations are reviewed as difficult daily life situations. The Rosenzweig Picture Frustration test could be used for diagnosing coping’ unconscious components that compose meaning set level and coping behaviour basis. The relations among personal characteristics (tolerance/intolerance to uncertainty, noetic orientations, personal anxiety, locus of control and three types and three directions of subjects’ responses in test’ situations were examined, generalized linear models were used. The subjects of the research are 199 teachers from secondary schools of Russian Federation, mean age is 40.6 years old. The results showed significant relations between particular personal characteristics and types and directions of the responses: ego-defense type and tolerance to uncertainty, obstacle-dominance type and personal anxiety, intropunitive direction and personal anxiety, obstacledominance type and noetic orientations. The common discussion of current results and results obtained in previous studies demonstrates potential existence of mediating relations between particular coping strategies and types and directions of subjects’ responses in The Rosenzweig Picture Frustration test.

  2. Uncertainty analyses of infiltration and subsurface flow and transport for SDMP sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, P.D.; Rockhold, M.L.; Gee, G.W.

    1997-09-01

    US Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff have identified a number of sites requiring special attention in the decommissioning process because of elevated levels of radioactive contaminants. Traits common to many of these sites include limited data characterizing the subsurface, the presence of long-lived radionuclides necessitating a long-term analysis (1,000 years or more), and potential exposure through multiple pathways. As a consequence of these traits, the uncertainty in predicted exposures can be significant. In addition, simplifications to the physical system and the transport mechanisms are often necessary to reduce the computational requirements of the analysis. Several multiple-pathway transport codes exist for estimating dose, two of which were used in this study. These two codes have built-in Monte Carlo simulation capabilities that were used for the uncertainty analysis. Several tools for improving uncertainty analyses of exposure estimates through the groundwater pathway have been developed and are discussed in this report. Generic probability distributions for unsaturated and saturated zone soil hydraulic parameters are presented. A method is presented to combine the generic distributions with site-specific water retention data using a Bayesian analysis. The resulting updated soil hydraulic parameter distributions can be used to obtain an updated estimate of the probability distribution of dose. The method is illustrated using a hypothetical decommissioning site

  3. Study on uncertainty evaluation methodology related to hydrological parameter of regional groundwater flow analysis model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakai, Ryutaro; Munakata, Masahiro; Ohoka, Masao; Kameya, Hiroshi

    2009-11-01

    In the safety assessment for a geological disposal of radioactive waste, it is important to develop a methodology for long-term estimation of regional groundwater flow from data acquisition to numerical analyses. In the uncertainties associated with estimation of regional groundwater flow, there are the one that concerns parameters and the one that concerns the hydrologeological evolution. The uncertainties of parameters include measurement errors and their heterogeneity. The authors discussed the uncertainties of hydraulic conductivity as a significant parameter for regional groundwater flow analysis. This study suggests that hydraulic conductivities of rock mass are controlled by rock characteristics such as fractures, porosity and test conditions such as hydraulic gradient, water quality, water temperature and that there exists variations more than ten times in hydraulic conductivity by difference due to test conditions such as hydraulic gradient or due to rock type variations such as rock fractures, porosity. In addition this study demonstrated that confining pressure change caused by uplift and subsidence and change of hydraulic gradient under the long-term evolution of hydrogeological environment could possibly produce variations more than ten times of magnitude in hydraulic conductivity. It was also shown that the effect of water quality change on hydraulic conductivity was not negligible and that the replacement of fresh water and saline water caused by sea level change could induce 0.6 times in current hydraulic conductivities in case of Horonobe site. (author)

  4. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies supporting the interpretation of the results of TVO I/II PRA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmberg, J.

    1992-01-01

    A comprehensive Level 1 probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for the TVO I/II nuclear power units. As a part of the PRA project, uncertainties of risk models and methods were systematically studied in order to describe them and to demonstrate their impact by way of results. The uncertainty study was divided into two phases: a qualitative and a quantitative study. The qualitative study contained identification of uncertainties and qualitative assessments of their importance. The PRA was introduced, and identified assumptions and uncertainties behind the models were documented. The most significant uncertainties were selected by importance measures or other judgements for further quantitative studies. The quantitative study included sensitivity studies and propagation of uncertainty ranges. In the sensitivity studies uncertain assumptions or parameters were varied in order to illustrate the sensitivity of the models. The propagation of the uncertainty ranges demonstrated the impact of the statistical uncertainties of the parameter values. The Monte Carlo method was used as a propagation method. The most significant uncertainties were those involved in modelling human interactions, dependences and common cause failures (CCFs), loss of coolant accident (LOCA) frequencies and pressure suppression. The qualitative mapping out of the uncertainty factors turned out to be useful in planning quantitative studies. It also served as internal review of the assumptions made in the PRA. The sensitivity studies were perhaps the most advantageous part of the quantitative study because they allowed individual analyses of the significance of uncertainty sources identified. The uncertainty study was found reasonable in systematically and critically assessing uncertainties in a risk analysis. The usefulness of this study depends on the decision maker (power company) since uncertainty studies are primarily carried out to support decision making when uncertainties are

  5. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of model complexity on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elert, M. [Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)] [ed.

    1996-09-01

    In the Model Complexity subgroup of BIOMOVS II, models of varying complexity have been applied to the problem of downward transport of radionuclides in soils. A scenario describing a case of surface contamination of a pasture soil was defined. Three different radionuclides with different environmental behavior and radioactive half-lives were considered: Cs-137, Sr-90 and I-129. The intention was to give a detailed specification of the parameters required by different kinds of model, together with reasonable values for the parameter uncertainty. A total of seven modelling teams participated in the study using 13 different models. Four of the modelling groups performed uncertainty calculations using nine different modelling approaches. The models used range in complexity from analytical solutions of a 2-box model using annual average data to numerical models coupling hydrology and transport using data varying on a daily basis. The complex models needed to consider all aspects of radionuclide transport in a soil with a variable hydrology are often impractical to use in safety assessments. Instead simpler models, often box models, are preferred. The comparison of predictions made with the complex models and the simple models for this scenario show that the predictions in many cases are very similar, e g in the predictions of the evolution of the root zone concentration. However, in other cases differences of many orders of magnitude can appear. One example is the prediction of the flux to the groundwater of radionuclides being transported through the soil column. Some issues that have come to focus in this study: There are large differences in the predicted soil hydrology and as a consequence also in the radionuclide transport, which suggests that there are large uncertainties in the calculation of effective precipitation and evapotranspiration. The approach used for modelling the water transport in the root zone has an impact on the predictions of the decline in root

  6. Experiences of Uncertainty in Men With an Elevated PSA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biddle, Caitlin; Brasel, Alicia; Underwood, Willie; Orom, Heather

    2015-05-15

    A significant proportion of men, ages 50 to 70 years, have, and continue to receive prostate specific antigen (PSA) tests to screen for prostate cancer (PCa). Approximately 70% of men with an elevated PSA level will not subsequently be diagnosed with PCa. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 13 men with an elevated PSA level who had not been diagnosed with PCa. Uncertainty was prominent in men's reactions to the PSA results, stemming from unanswered questions about the PSA test, PCa risk, and confusion about their management plan. Uncertainty was exacerbated or reduced depending on whether health care providers communicated in lay and empathetic ways, and provided opportunities for question asking. To manage uncertainty, men engaged in information and health care seeking, self-monitoring, and defensive cognition. Results inform strategies for meeting informational needs of men with an elevated PSA and confirm the primary importance of physician communication behavior for open information exchange and uncertainty reduction. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. A Bayesian approach for quantification of model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Inseok; Amarchinta, Hemanth K.; Grandhi, Ramana V.

    2010-01-01

    In most engineering problems, more than one model can be created to represent an engineering system's behavior. Uncertainty is inevitably involved in selecting the best model from among the models that are possible. Uncertainty in model selection cannot be ignored, especially when the differences between the predictions of competing models are significant. In this research, a methodology is proposed to quantify model uncertainty using measured differences between experimental data and model outcomes under a Bayesian statistical framework. The adjustment factor approach is used to propagate model uncertainty into prediction of a system response. A nonlinear vibration system is used to demonstrate the processes for implementing the adjustment factor approach. Finally, the methodology is applied on the engineering benefits of a laser peening process, and a confidence band for residual stresses is established to indicate the reliability of model prediction.

  8. Modeling theoretical uncertainties in phenomenological analyses for particle physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Charles, Jerome [CNRS, Aix-Marseille Univ, Universite de Toulon, CPT UMR 7332, Marseille Cedex 9 (France); Descotes-Genon, Sebastien [CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, Universite Paris-Saclay, Laboratoire de Physique Theorique (UMR 8627), Orsay Cedex (France); Niess, Valentin [CNRS/IN2P3, UMR 6533, Laboratoire de Physique Corpusculaire, Aubiere Cedex (France); Silva, Luiz Vale [CNRS, Univ. Paris-Sud, Universite Paris-Saclay, Laboratoire de Physique Theorique (UMR 8627), Orsay Cedex (France); Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS/IN2P3, Universite Paris-Saclay, Groupe de Physique Theorique, Institut de Physique Nucleaire, Orsay Cedex (France); J. Stefan Institute, Jamova 39, P. O. Box 3000, Ljubljana (Slovenia)

    2017-04-15

    The determination of the fundamental parameters of the Standard Model (and its extensions) is often limited by the presence of statistical and theoretical uncertainties. We present several models for the latter uncertainties (random, nuisance, external) in the frequentist framework, and we derive the corresponding p values. In the case of the nuisance approach where theoretical uncertainties are modeled as biases, we highlight the important, but arbitrary, issue of the range of variation chosen for the bias parameters. We introduce the concept of adaptive p value, which is obtained by adjusting the range of variation for the bias according to the significance considered, and which allows us to tackle metrology and exclusion tests with a single and well-defined unified tool, which exhibits interesting frequentist properties. We discuss how the determination of fundamental parameters is impacted by the model chosen for theoretical uncertainties, illustrating several issues with examples from quark flavor physics. (orig.)

  9. Gaussian Process Interpolation for Uncertainty Estimation in Image Registration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wachinger, Christian; Golland, Polina; Reuter, Martin; Wells, William

    2014-01-01

    Intensity-based image registration requires resampling images on a common grid to evaluate the similarity function. The uncertainty of interpolation varies across the image, depending on the location of resampled points relative to the base grid. We propose to perform Bayesian inference with Gaussian processes, where the covariance matrix of the Gaussian process posterior distribution estimates the uncertainty in interpolation. The Gaussian process replaces a single image with a distribution over images that we integrate into a generative model for registration. Marginalization over resampled images leads to a new similarity measure that includes the uncertainty of the interpolation. We demonstrate that our approach increases the registration accuracy and propose an efficient approximation scheme that enables seamless integration with existing registration methods. PMID:25333127

  10. Can Future Uncertainty Keep Children Out of School?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lilleør, Helene Bie

    that uncertainty about future returns results in a need for risk diversification, that children function as old-age security providers when there are no available pension systems, that the human capital investment decision of one child is likely to be influenced by that of his/her siblings, and that rural parents...... face a choice of investing in either specific or general human capital of their children. In this paper, I investigate the effects of future income uncertainty on the joint human capital investment decision of children in a household. I develop and calibrate a simple illustrative human capital...... portfolio model and show that existing levels of uncertainty can indeed result in less than full school enrolment within a household, even in a world of perfect credit markets. The paper thus offers an alternative explanation for why it might be optimal for rural parents not to send all of their children...

  11. Applied research in uncertainty modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ayyub, Bilal

    2005-01-01

    Uncertainty has been a concern to engineers, managers, and scientists for many years. For a long time uncertainty has been considered synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Since the early sixties views on uncertainty have become more heterogeneous. In the past forty years numerous tools that model uncertainty, above and beyond statistics, have been proposed by several engineers and scientists. The tool/method to model uncertainty in a specific context should really be chosen by considering the features of the phenomenon under consideration, not independent of what is known about the system and what causes uncertainty. In this fascinating overview of the field, the authors provide broad coverage of uncertainty analysis/modeling and its application. Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis presents the perspectives of various researchers and practitioners on uncertainty analysis and modeling outside their own fields and domain expertise. Rather than focusing explicitly on...

  12. Uncertainty analysis of LBLOCA for Advanced Heavy Water Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Srivastava, A.; Lele, H.G.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2008-01-01

    The main objective of safety analysis is to demonstrate in a robust way that all safety requirements are met, i.e. sufficient margins exist between real values of important parameters and their threshold values at which damage of the barriers against release of radioactivity would occur. As stated in the IAEA Safety Requirements for Design of NPPs 'a safety analysis of the plant design shall be conducted in which methods of both deterministic and probabilistic analysis shall be applied'. It is required that 'the computer programs, analytical methods and plant models used in the safety analysis shall be verified and validated, and adequate consideration shall be given to uncertainties'. Uncertainties are present in calculations due to the computer codes, initial and boundary conditions, plant state, fuel parameters, scaling and numerical solution algorithm. All conservative approaches, still widely used, were introduced to cover uncertainties due to limited capability for modelling and understanding of physical phenomena at the early stages of safety analysis. The results obtained by this approach are quite unrealistic and the level of conservatism is not fully known. Another approach is the use of Best Estimate (BE) codes with realistic initial and boundary conditions. If this approach is selected, it should be based on statistically combined uncertainties for plant initial and boundary conditions, assumptions and code models. The current trends are going into direction of the best estimate code with some conservative assumptions of the system with realistic input data with uncertainty analysis. The BE analysis with evaluation of uncertainties offers, in addition, a way to quantify the existing plant safety margins. Its broader use in the future is therefore envisaged, even though it is not always feasible because of the difficulty of quantifying code uncertainties with sufficiently narrow range for every phenomenon and for each accident sequence. In this paper

  13. Existe sujeito em Michel Maffesoli?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marli Appel da Silva

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Este ensaio discute a concepção de sujeito na abordagem teórica de Michel Maffesoli. As ideias desse autor estão em voga em alguns meios acadêmicos no Brasil e são difundidas por algumas mídias de grande circulação nacional. Entretanto, ao longo de suas obras, os pressupostos que definem quem é o sujeito maffesoliano se encontram pouco clarificados. Portanto, para alcançar o objetivo a que se propõe, este ensaio desenvolve uma análise da epistemologia e da ontologia maffesoliana com a finalidade de compreender as origens dos pressupostos desse autor, ou seja, as teorias e os autores em que Maffesoli se baseou para desenvolver uma visão de sujeito. Com essa compreensão, pretende-se responder à questão: existe sujeito na abordagem teórica de Maffesoli.

  14. Uncertainty and Bounded Rationality: An Empirical Study in Financial Sector Incerteza e Racionalidade Limitada: Um Estudo Empírico no Setor Financeiro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adilson Aderito da Silva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The levels of uncertainty perceived by managers as having the perspective of the theoretical support of the Information Uncertainty, focusing on the multidimensional approach proposed by Milliken (1987, which supports the existence of three types of uncertainty: uncertainty of state, uncertainty effect and response uncertainty. The levels of rationality of managers were estimated to construct a second order from the uncertainties of effect and response uncertainty, with the theoretical support in the definitions of the concept of bounded rationality proposed by Simon (1957. The data collected from the 118 employees of the banking sector in the State of São Paulo were analyzed using Structural Equation Modeling with the Software Smart PLS. The results indicated a significant influence of the state uncertainty on the  level of rationality of managers and bring important methodological and conceptual contributions to the advancement of studies on the subject of uncertainty in decision makingEsta pesquisa foi desenvolvida com o objetivo de avaliar o impacto da incerteza percebida no ambiente sobre os níveis de racionalidade dos gestores do setor financeiro. Para tal, foram estimados os níveis de incerteza percebidos pelos gestores tendo como suporte teórico a perspectiva da Incerteza da Informação, com foco na abordagem multidimensional proposta por Milliken (1987, que defende a existência de três tipos de incerteza: incerteza de estado, incerteza de efeito e incerteza de resposta. Os níveis de racionalidade dos gestores foram estimados como um construto de segunda ordem a partir das incertezas de efeito e da incerteza de resposta, com o suporte teórico nas definições do conceito de racionalidade limitada propostas  por Simon (1957.  Os dados coletados junto aos 118 funcionários do setor bancário no Estado de São Paulo foram analisados por meio de Modelagem por Equações Estruturais com o Software Smart PLS. Os resultados

  15. Uncertainty of the calibration factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    According to present definitions, an error is the difference between a measured value and the ''true'' value. Thus an error has both a numerical value and a sign. In contrast, the uncertainly associated with a measurement is a parameter that characterizes the dispersion of the values ''that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand''. This parameter is normally an estimated standard deviation. An uncertainty, therefore, has no known sign and is usually assumed to be symmetrical. It is a measure of our lack of exact knowledge, after all recognized ''systematic'' effects have been eliminated by applying appropriate corrections. If errors were known exactly, the true value could be determined and there would be no problem left. In reality, errors are estimated in the best possible way and corrections made for them. Therefore, after application of all known corrections, errors need no further consideration (their expectation value being zero) and the only quantities of interest are uncertainties. 3 refs, 2 figs

  16. Quantifying the uncertainty in heritability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furlotte, Nicholas A; Heckerman, David; Lippert, Christoph

    2014-05-01

    The use of mixed models to determine narrow-sense heritability and related quantities such as SNP heritability has received much recent attention. Less attention has been paid to the inherent variability in these estimates. One approach for quantifying variability in estimates of heritability is a frequentist approach, in which heritability is estimated using maximum likelihood and its variance is quantified through an asymptotic normal approximation. An alternative approach is to quantify the uncertainty in heritability through its Bayesian posterior distribution. In this paper, we develop the latter approach, make it computationally efficient and compare it to the frequentist approach. We show theoretically that, for a sufficiently large sample size and intermediate values of heritability, the two approaches provide similar results. Using the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort, we show empirically that the two approaches can give different results and that the variance/uncertainty can remain large.

  17. Uncertainty in hydrological change modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige

    applied at the grid scale. Flux and state hydrological outputs which integrate responses over time and space showed more sensitivity to precipitation mean spatial biases and less so on extremes. In the investigated catchments, the projected change of groundwater levels and basin discharge between current......Hydrological change modelling methodologies generally use climate models outputs to force hydrological simulations under changed conditions. There are nested sources of uncertainty throughout this methodology, including choice of climate model and subsequent bias correction methods. This Ph.......D. study evaluates the uncertainty of the impact of climate change in hydrological simulations given multiple climate models and bias correction methods of varying complexity. Three distribution based scaling methods (DBS) were developed and benchmarked against a more simplistic and commonly used delta...

  18. Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, K.

    2010-08-12

    The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  19. Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, K.; Kniss, J.; Riesenfeld, R.; Johnson, C.R.

    2010-01-01

    The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. The uncertainty budget in pharmaceutical industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj

    of their uncertainty, exactly as described in GUM [2]. Pharmaceutical industry has therefore over the last 5 years shown increasing interest in accreditation according to ISO 17025 [3], and today uncertainty budgets are being developed for all so-called critical measurements. The uncertainty of results obtained...... that the uncertainty of a particular result is independent of the method used for its estimation. Several examples of uncertainty budgets for critical parameters based on the bottom-up procedure will be discussed, and it will be shown how the top-down method is used as a means of verifying uncertainty budgets, based...

  1. Improvement of uncertainty relations for mixed states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Yong Moon

    2005-01-01

    We study a possible improvement of uncertainty relations. The Heisenberg uncertainty relation employs commutator of a pair of conjugate observables to set the limit of quantum measurement of the observables. The Schroedinger uncertainty relation improves the Heisenberg uncertainty relation by adding the correlation in terms of anti-commutator. However both relations are insensitive whether the state used is pure or mixed. We improve the uncertainty relations by introducing additional terms which measure the mixtureness of the state. For the momentum and position operators as conjugate observables and for the thermal state of quantum harmonic oscillator, it turns out that the equalities in the improved uncertainty relations hold

  2. Adjoint-Based Uncertainty Quantification with MCNP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seifried, Jeffrey E. [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-09-01

    This work serves to quantify the instantaneous uncertainties in neutron transport simulations born from nuclear data and statistical counting uncertainties. Perturbation and adjoint theories are used to derive implicit sensitivity expressions. These expressions are transformed into forms that are convenient for construction with MCNP6, creating the ability to perform adjoint-based uncertainty quantification with MCNP6. These new tools are exercised on the depleted-uranium hybrid LIFE blanket, quantifying its sensitivities and uncertainties to important figures of merit. Overall, these uncertainty estimates are small (< 2%). Having quantified the sensitivities and uncertainties, physical understanding of the system is gained and some confidence in the simulation is acquired.

  3. Applications of seismic damage hazard analysis for the qualification of existing nuclear and offshore facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bazzurro, P.; Manfredini, G.M.; Diaz Molina, I.

    1995-01-01

    The Seismic Damage Hazard Analysis (SDHA) is a methodology which couples conventional Seismic Hazard Analysis (SHA) and non-linear response analysis to seismic loadings. This is a powerful tool in the retrofit process: SDHA permits the direct computation of the probability of occurrence of damage and, eventually, collapse of existing and upgraded structural systems. The SDHA methodology is a significant step towards a better understanding and quantification of structural seismic risk. SDHA incorporates and explicitly accounts for seismic load variability, seismic damage potential variability and structural resistance uncertainty. In addition, SDHA makes available a sound strategy to perform non-linear dynamic analyses. A limited number of non-linear dynamic analyses is sufficient to obtain estimates of damage and its probability of occurrence. The basic concepts of the SDHA methodology are briefly reviewed. Illustrative examples are presented, regarding a power house structure, a tubular structure and seabed slope stability problem. (author)

  4. Conditional Betas and Investor Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Fernando D. Chague

    2013-01-01

    We derive theoretical expressions for market betas from a rational expectation equilibrium model where the representative investor does not observe if the economy is in a recession or an expansion. Market betas in this economy are time-varying and related to investor uncertainty about the state of the economy. The dynamics of betas will also vary across assets according to the assets' cash-flow structure. In a calibration exercise, we show that value and growth firms have cash-flow structures...

  5. Aggregate Uncertainty, Money and Banking

    OpenAIRE

    Hongfei Sun

    2006-01-01

    This paper studies the problem of monitoring the monitor in a model of money and banking with aggregate uncertainty. It shows that when inside money is required as a means of bank loan repayment, a market of inside money is entailed at the repayment stage and generates information-revealing prices that perfectly discipline the bank. The incentive problem of a bank is costlessly overcome simply by involving inside money in repayment. Inside money distinguishes itself from outside money by its ...

  6. Decision Under Uncertainty in Diagnosis

    OpenAIRE

    Kalme, Charles I.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge based diagnosis may be viewed as the generic form at the compiled end of the spectrum. A major undercurrent in this is advocating the need for a strong underlying model and an integrated set of support tools for carrying such a model in order to deal with ...

  7. Uncertainty analysis for hot channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panka, I.; Kereszturi, A.

    2006-01-01

    The fulfillment of the safety analysis acceptance criteria is usually evaluated by separate hot channel calculations using the results of neutronic or/and thermo hydraulic system calculations. In case of an ATWS event (inadvertent withdrawal of control assembly), according to the analysis, a number of fuel rods are experiencing DNB for a longer time and must be regarded as failed. Their number must be determined for a further evaluation of the radiological consequences. In the deterministic approach, the global power history must be multiplied by different hot channel factors (kx) taking into account the radial power peaking factors for each fuel pin. If DNB occurs it is necessary to perform a few number of hot channel calculations to determine the limiting kx leading just to DNB and fuel failure (the conservative DNBR limit is 1.33). Knowing the pin power distribution from the core design calculation, the number of failed fuel pins can be calculated. The above procedure can be performed by conservative assumptions (e.g. conservative input parameters in the hot channel calculations), as well. In case of hot channel uncertainty analysis, the relevant input parameters (k x, mass flow, inlet temperature of the coolant, pin average burnup, initial gap size, selection of power history influencing the gap conductance value) of hot channel calculations and the DNBR limit are varied considering the respective uncertainties. An uncertainty analysis methodology was elaborated combining the response surface method with the one sided tolerance limit method of Wilks. The results of deterministic and uncertainty hot channel calculations are compared regarding to the number of failed fuel rods, max. temperature of the clad surface and max. temperature of the fuel (Authors)

  8. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  9. Microeconomic Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Indeterminacy

    OpenAIRE

    Fagnart, Jean-François; Pierrard, Olivier; Sneessens, Henri

    2005-01-01

    The paper proposes a stylized intertemporal macroeconomic model wherein the combination of decentralized trading and microeconomic uncertainty (taking the form of privately observed and uninsured idiosyncratic shocks) creates an information problem between agents and generates indeterminacy of the macroeconomic equilibrium. For a given value of the economic fundamentals, the economy admits a continuum of equilibria that can be indexed by the sales expectations of firms at the time of investme...

  10. LOFT differential pressure uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, R.P.; Biladeau, G.L.; Quinn, P.A.

    1977-03-01

    A performance analysis of the LOFT differential pressure (ΔP) measurement is presented. Along with completed descriptions of test programs and theoretical studies that have been conducted on the ΔP, specific sources of measurement uncertainty are identified, quantified, and combined to provide an assessment of the ability of this measurement to satisfy the SDD 1.4.1C (June 1975) requirement of measurement of differential pressure

  11. Knowledge, decision making, and uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fox, J.

    1986-01-01

    Artificial intelligence (AI) systems depend heavily upon the ability to make decisions. Decisions require knowledge, yet there is no knowledge-based theory of decision making. To the extent that AI uses a theory of decision-making it adopts components of the traditional statistical view in which choices are made by maximizing some function of the probabilities of decision options. A knowledge-based scheme for reasoning about uncertainty is proposed, which extends the traditional framework but is compatible with it

  12. Accommodating Uncertainty in Prior Distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Picard, Richard Roy [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Vander Wiel, Scott Alan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-01-19

    A fundamental premise of Bayesian methodology is that a priori information is accurately summarized by a single, precisely de ned prior distribution. In many cases, especially involving informative priors, this premise is false, and the (mis)application of Bayes methods produces posterior quantities whose apparent precisions are highly misleading. We examine the implications of uncertainty in prior distributions, and present graphical methods for dealing with them.

  13. Utilization of Software Tools for Uncertainty Calculation in Measurement Science Education

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zangl, Hubert; Zine-Zine, Mariam; Hoermaier, Klaus

    2015-01-01

    Despite its importance, uncertainty is often neglected by practitioners in the design of system even in safety critical applications. Thus, problems arising from uncertainty may only be identified late in the design process and thus lead to additional costs. Although there exists numerous tools to support uncertainty calculation, reasons for limited usage in early design phases may be low awareness of the existence of the tools and insufficient training in the practical application. We present a teaching philosophy that addresses uncertainty from the very beginning of teaching measurement science, in particular with respect to the utilization of software tools. The developed teaching material is based on the GUM method and makes use of uncertainty toolboxes in the simulation environment. Based on examples in measurement science education we discuss advantages and disadvantages of the proposed teaching philosophy and include feedback from students

  14. Site utility system optimization with operation adjustment under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Li; Gai, Limei; Smith, Robin

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Uncertainties are classified into time-based and probability-based uncertain factors. • Multi-period operation and recourses deal with uncertainty implementation. • Operation scheduling are specified at the design stage to deal with uncertainties. • Steam mains superheating affects steam distribution and power generation in the system. - Abstract: Utility systems must satisfy process energy and power demands under varying conditions. The system performance is decided by the system configuration and individual equipment operating load for boilers, gas turbines, steam turbines, condensers, and let down valves. Steam mains conditions in terms of steam pressures and steam superheating also play important roles on steam distribution in the system and power generation by steam expansion in steam turbines, and should be included in the system optimization. Uncertainties such as process steam power demand changes and electricity price fluctuations should be included in the system optimization to eliminate as much as possible the production loss caused by steam power deficits due to uncertainties. In this paper, uncertain factors are classified into time-based and probability-based uncertain factors, and operation scheduling containing multi-period equipment load sharing, redundant equipment start up, and electricity import to compensate for power deficits, have been presented to deal with the happens of uncertainties, and are formulated as a multi-period item and a recourse item in the optimization model. There are two case studies in this paper. One case illustrates the system design to determine system configuration, equipment selection, and system operation scheduling at the design stage to deal with uncertainties. The other case provides operational optimization scenarios for an existing system, especially when the steam superheating varies. The proposed method can provide practical guidance to system energy efficiency improvement.

  15. Managing project risks and uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mike Mentis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget, schedule and fit-for-purpose. Threat is used here as the collective for risks (quantifiable bad things that can happen and uncertainties (poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events. Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that (a project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks, (b while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control, managed execution and oversight are still the primary means to keeping within budget, on time and fit-for-purpose, (c improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus, effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics, and (d projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate, the scope of identified threats is too narrow, and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution. Almost by definition, what is poorly known is likely to cause problems. Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage, but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns. Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals. This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.

  16. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Malpica Galassi, Riccardo

    2017-03-06

    A general strategy for analysis and reduction of uncertain chemical kinetic models is presented, and its utility is illustrated in the context of ignition of hydrocarbon fuel–air mixtures. The strategy is based on a deterministic analysis and reduction method which employs computational singular perturbation analysis to generate simplified kinetic mechanisms, starting from a detailed reference mechanism. We model uncertain quantities in the reference mechanism, namely the Arrhenius rate parameters, as random variables with prescribed uncertainty factors. We propagate this uncertainty to obtain the probability of inclusion of each reaction in the simplified mechanism. We propose probabilistic error measures to compare predictions from the uncertain reference and simplified models, based on the comparison of the uncertain dynamics of the state variables, where the mixture entropy is chosen as progress variable. We employ the construction for the simplification of an uncertain mechanism in an n-butane–air mixture homogeneous ignition case, where a 176-species, 1111-reactions detailed kinetic model for the oxidation of n-butane is used with uncertainty factors assigned to each Arrhenius rate pre-exponential coefficient. This illustration is employed to highlight the utility of the construction, and the performance of a family of simplified models produced depending on chosen thresholds on importance and marginal probabilities of the reactions.

  17. Interpretations of alternative uncertainty representations in a reliability and risk analysis context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.

    2011-01-01

    Probability is the predominant tool used to measure uncertainties in reliability and risk analyses. However, other representations also exist, including imprecise (interval) probability, fuzzy probability and representations based on the theories of evidence (belief functions) and possibility. Many researchers in the field are strong proponents of these alternative methods, but some are also sceptical. In this paper, we address one basic requirement set for quantitative measures of uncertainty: the interpretation needed to explain what an uncertainty number expresses. We question to what extent the various measures meet this requirement. Comparisons are made with probabilistic analysis, where uncertainty is represented by subjective probabilities, using either a betting interpretation or a reference to an uncertainty standard interpretation. By distinguishing between chances (expressing variation) and subjective probabilities, new insights are gained into the link between the alternative uncertainty representations and probability.

  18. Propagation of interval and probabilistic uncertainty in cyberinfrastructure-related data processing and data fusion

    CERN Document Server

    Servin, Christian

    2015-01-01

    On various examples ranging from geosciences to environmental sciences, this book explains how to generate an adequate description of uncertainty, how to justify semiheuristic algorithms for processing uncertainty, and how to make these algorithms more computationally efficient. It explains in what sense the existing approach to uncertainty as a combination of random and systematic components is only an approximation, presents a more adequate three-component model with an additional periodic error component, and explains how uncertainty propagation techniques can be extended to this model. The book provides a justification for a practically efficient heuristic technique (based on fuzzy decision-making). It explains how the computational complexity of uncertainty processing can be reduced. The book also shows how to take into account that in real life, the information about uncertainty is often only partially known, and, on several practical examples, explains how to extract the missing information about uncer...

  19. Rational consensus under uncertainty: Expert judgment in the EC-USNRC uncertainty study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooke, R.; Kraan, B.; Goossens, L.

    1999-01-01

    ? Simply choosing a maximally feasible pool of experts and combining their views by some method of equal representation might achieve a form of political consensus among the experts involved, but will not achieve rational consensus. If expert viewpoints are related to the institutions at which the experts are employed, then numerical representation of viewpoints in the pool may be, and/or may be perceived to be influenced by the size of the interests funding the institutes. We collect a number of conclusions regarding the use of structured expert judgment. 1 . Experts' subjective uncertainties may be used to advance rational consensus in the face of large uncertainties, in so far as the necessary conditions for rational consensus are satisfied. 2. Empirical control of experts' subjective uncertainties is possible. 3. Experts' performance as subjective probability assessors is not uniform, there are significant differences in performance. 4. Experts as a group may show poor performance. 5. A structured combination of expert judgment may show satisfactory performance, even though the experts individually perform poorly. 6. The performance based combination generally outperforms the equal weight combination. 7. The combination of experts' subjective probabilities, according to the schemes discussed here, generally has wider 90% central confidence intervals than the experts individually; particularly in the case of the equal weight combination. We note that poor performance as a subjective probability assessor does not indicate a lack of substantive expert knowledge. Rather, it indicates unfamiliarity with quantifying subjective uncertainty in terms of subjective probability distributions. Experts were provided with training in subjective probability assessment, but of course their formal training does not (yet) prepare them for such tasks

  20. NOTE: Do acupuncture points exist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Xiaohui; Zhang, Xinyi; Liu, Chenglin; Dang, Ruishan; Huang, Yuying; He, Wei; Ding, Guanghong

    2009-05-01

    We used synchrotron x-ray fluorescence analysis to probe the distribution of four chemical elements in and around acupuncture points, two located in the forearm and two in the lower leg. Three of the four acupuncture points showed significantly elevated concentrations of elements Ca, Fe, Cu and Zn in relation to levels in the surrounding tissue, with similar elevation ratios for Cu and Fe. The mapped distribution of these elements implies that each acupuncture point seems to be elliptical with the long axis along the meridian.

  1. Detecting Novelty and Significance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Vera; Bradley, Margaret M.; Codispoti, Maurizio; Lang, Peter J.

    2013-01-01

    Studies of cognition often use an “oddball” paradigm to study effects of stimulus novelty and significance on information processing. However, an oddball tends to be perceptually more novel than the standard, repeated stimulus as well as more relevant to the ongoing task, making it difficult to disentangle effects due to perceptual novelty and stimulus significance. In the current study, effects of perceptual novelty and significance on ERPs were assessed in a passive viewing context by presenting repeated and novel pictures (natural scenes) that either signaled significant information regarding the current context or not. A fronto-central N2 component was primarily affected by perceptual novelty, whereas a centro-parietal P3 component was modulated by both stimulus significance and novelty. The data support an interpretation that the N2 reflects perceptual fluency and is attenuated when a current stimulus matches an active memory representation and that the amplitude of the P3 reflects stimulus meaning and significance. PMID:19400680

  2. Uncertainty in prostate cancer. Ethnic and family patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Germino, B B; Mishel, M H; Belyea, M; Harris, L; Ware, A; Mohler, J

    1998-01-01

    Prostate cancer occurs 37% more often in African-American men than in white men. Patients and their family care providers (FCPs) may have different experiences of cancer and its treatment. This report addresses two questions: 1) What is the relationship of uncertainty to family coping, psychological adjustment to illness, and spiritual factors? and 2) Are these patterns of relationship similar for patients and their family care givers and for whites and African-Americans? A sample of white and African-American men and their family care givers (N = 403) was drawn from an ongoing study, testing the efficacy of an uncertainty management intervention with men with stage B prostate cancer. Data were collected at study entry, either 1 week after post-surgical catheter removal or at the beginning of primary radiation treatment. Measures of uncertainty, adult role behavior, problem solving, social support, importance of God in one's life, family coping, psychological adjustment to illness, and perceptions of health and illness met standard criteria for internal consistency. Analyses of baseline data using Pearson's product moment correlations were conducted to examine the relationships of person, disease, and contextual factors to uncertainty. For family coping, uncertainty was significantly and positively related to two domains in white family care providers only. In African-American and white family care providers, the more uncertainty experienced, the less positive they felt about treatment. Uncertainty for all care givers was related inversely to positive feelings about the patient recovering from the illness. For all patients and for white family members, uncertainty was related inversely to the quality of the domestic environment. For everyone, uncertainty was related inversely to psychological distress. Higher levels of uncertainty were related to a poorer social environment for African-American patients and for white family members. For white patients and their

  3. Real Options Effect of Uncertainty and Labor Demand Shocks on the Housing Market

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Gabriel; Nguyen Thanh, Binh; Strobel, Johannes

    2016-01-01

    This paper shows that uncertainty affects the housing market in two significant ways. First, uncertainty shocks adversely affect housing prices but not the quantities that are traded. Controlling for a broad set of variables in fixed-effects regressions, we find that uncertainty shocks reduce housing prices and median sales prices in the amount of 1.4% and 1.8%, respectively, but the effect is not statistically significant for the percentage changes of all homes sold. Second, when...

  4. Exploring Best Practice Skills to Predict Uncertainties in Venture Capital Investment Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blum, David Arthur

    Algae biodiesel is the sole sustainable and abundant transportation fuel source that can replace petrol diesel use; however, high competition and economic uncertainties exist, influencing independent venture capital decision making. Technology, market, management, and government action uncertainties influence competition and economic uncertainties in the venture capital industry. The purpose of this qualitative case study was to identify the best practice skills at IVC firms to predict uncertainty between early and late funding stages. The basis of the study was real options theory, a framework used to evaluate and understand the economic and competition uncertainties inherent in natural resource investment and energy derived from plant-based oils. Data were collected from interviews of 24 venture capital partners based in the United States who invest in algae and other renewable energy solutions. Data were analyzed by coding and theme development interwoven with the conceptual framework. Eight themes emerged: (a) expected returns model, (b) due diligence, (c) invest in specific sectors, (d) reduced uncertainty-late stage, (e) coopetition, (f) portfolio firm relationships, (g) differentiation strategy, and (h) modeling uncertainty and best practice. The most noteworthy finding was that predicting uncertainty at the early stage was impractical; at the expansion and late funding stages, however, predicting uncertainty was possible. The implications of these findings will affect social change by providing independent venture capitalists with best practice skills to increase successful exits, lessen uncertainty, and encourage increased funding of renewable energy firms, contributing to cleaner and healthier communities throughout the United States..

  5. Significant NRC Enforcement Actions

    Data.gov (United States)

    Nuclear Regulatory Commission — This dataset provides a list of Nuclear Regulartory Commission (NRC) issued significant enforcement actions. These actions, referred to as "escalated", are issued by...

  6. [Does really sex addiction exist?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Echeburúa, Enrique

    2012-01-01

    Hypersexual Disorder has been proposed as a new psychiatric disorder for DSM-V, characterized by an increased frequency and intensity of sexually motivated fantasies, arousal, urges, and enacted behavior in association with an impulsivity component. Excessive appetitive and consummatory behaviors, including hypersexuality, can become a non-chemical addiction. Sexual addiction afflicts people having paraphilic or nonparaphilic behaviors associated with progressive risk-taking sexual behaviors, escalation or progression of sexual behaviors (tolerance), loss of control and significant adverse psychosocial consequences, such as unplanned pregnancy, pair-bond dysfunction, marital separation, financial problems and sexually transmitted diseases including HIV. The most common behaviors involved in sexual addiction are fantasy sex, compulsive masturbation, pornography, cybersex, voyeuristic sex, anonymous sex and multiple sexual partners. These behaviors are intended to reduce anxiety and other dysphoric affects (e.g., shame and depression). Axis I psychiatric diagnosis, especially mood disorders, psychoactive substance abuse disorders and attention deficit hyperactivity disorders, are common comorbid disorders with sexual addiction. There are significant gaps in the current scientific knowledge base regarding the clinical course, development risk factors and family history and data on women with sexual addiction are lacking.

  7. Uncertainty quantification for environmental models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Mary C.; Lu, Dan; Kavetski, Dmitri; Clark, Martyn P.; Ye, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Environmental models are used to evaluate the fate of fertilizers in agricultural settings (including soil denitrification), the degradation of hydrocarbons at spill sites, and water supply for people and ecosystems in small to large basins and cities—to mention but a few applications of these models. They also play a role in understanding and diagnosing potential environmental impacts of global climate change. The models are typically mildly to extremely nonlinear. The persistent demand for enhanced dynamics and resolution to improve model realism [17] means that lengthy individual model execution times will remain common, notwithstanding continued enhancements in computer power. In addition, high-dimensional parameter spaces are often defined, which increases the number of model runs required to quantify uncertainty [2]. Some environmental modeling projects have access to extensive funding and computational resources; many do not. The many recent studies of uncertainty quantification in environmental model predictions have focused on uncertainties related to data error and sparsity of data, expert judgment expressed mathematically through prior information, poorly known parameter values, and model structure (see, for example, [1,7,9,10,13,18]). Approaches for quantifying uncertainty include frequentist (potentially with prior information [7,9]), Bayesian [13,18,19], and likelihood-based. A few of the numerous methods, including some sensitivity and inverse methods with consequences for understanding and quantifying uncertainty, are as follows: Bayesian hierarchical modeling and Bayesian model averaging; single-objective optimization with error-based weighting [7] and multi-objective optimization [3]; methods based on local derivatives [2,7,10]; screening methods like OAT (one at a time) and the method of Morris [14]; FAST (Fourier amplitude sensitivity testing) [14]; the Sobol' method [14]; randomized maximum likelihood [10]; Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) [10

  8. Uncertainty analysis of the FRAP code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, S.O.

    1978-01-01

    A user oriented, automated uncertainty analysis capability has been built into the FRAP code (Fuel Rod Analysis Program) and applied to a PWR fuel rod undergoing a LOCA. The method of uncertainty analysis is the Response Surface Method (RSM). (author)

  9. Two multi-dimensional uncertainty relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skala, L; Kapsa, V

    2008-01-01

    Two multi-dimensional uncertainty relations, one related to the probability density and the other one related to the probability density current, are derived and discussed. Both relations are stronger than the usual uncertainty relations for the coordinates and momentum

  10. Change and uncertainty in quantum systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franson, J.D.

    1996-01-01

    A simple inequality shows that any change in the expectation value of an observable quantity must be associated with some degree of uncertainty. This inequality is often more restrictive than the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. copyright 1996 The American Physical Society

  11. Measure of uncertainty in regional grade variability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tutmez, B.; Kaymak, U.; Melin, P.; Castillo, O.; Gomez Ramirez, E.; Kacprzyk, J.; Pedrycz, W.

    2007-01-01

    Because the geological events are neither homogeneous nor isotropic, the geological investigations are characterized by particularly high uncertainties. This paper presents a hybrid methodology for measuring of uncertainty in regional grade variability. In order to evaluate the fuzziness in grade

  12. The Uncertainty Principle in the Presence of Quantum Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renes, Joseph M.; Berta, Mario; Christandl, Matthias; Colbeck, Roger; Renner, Renato

    2010-03-01

    One consequence of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is that no observer can predict the outcomes of two incompatible measurements performed on a system to arbitrary precision. However, this implication is invalid if the the observer possesses a quantum memory, a distinct possibility in light of recent technological advances. Entanglement between the system and the memory is responsible for the breakdown of the uncertainty principle, as illustrated by the EPR paradox. In this work we present an improved uncertainty principle which takes this entanglement into account. By quantifying uncertainty using entropy, we show that the sum of the entropies associated with incompatible measurements must exceed a quantity which depends on the degree of incompatibility and the amount of entanglement between system and memory. Apart from its foundational significance, the uncertainty principle motivated the first proposals for quantum cryptography, though the possibility of an eavesdropper having a quantum memory rules out using the original version to argue that these proposals are secure. The uncertainty relation introduced here alleviates this problem and paves the way for its widespread use in quantum cryptography.

  13. Analysis of Uncertainty in Dynamic Processes Development of Banks Functioning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksei V. Korovyakovskii

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper offers the approach to measure of uncertainty estimation in dynamic processes of banks functioning, using statistic data of different banking operations indicators. To calculate measure of uncertainty in dynamic processes of banks functioning the phase images of relevant sets of statistic data are considered. Besides, it is shown that the form of phase image of the studied sets of statistic data can act as a basis of measure of uncertainty estimation in dynamic processes of banks functioning. The set of analytical characteristics are offered to formalize the form of phase image definition of the studied sets of statistic data. It is shown that the offered analytical characteristics consider inequality of changes in values of the studied sets of statistic data, which is one of the ways of uncertainty display in dynamic processes development. The invariant estimates of measure of uncertainty in dynamic processes of banks functioning, considering significant changes in absolute values of the same indicators for different banks were obtained. The examples of calculation of measure of uncertainty in dynamic processes of concrete banks functioning were cited.

  14. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O' Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  15. Statistically significant relational data mining :

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berry, Jonathan W.; Leung, Vitus Joseph; Phillips, Cynthia Ann; Pinar, Ali; Robinson, David Gerald; Berger-Wolf, Tanya; Bhowmick, Sanjukta; Casleton, Emily; Kaiser, Mark; Nordman, Daniel J.; Wilson, Alyson G.

    2014-02-01

    This report summarizes the work performed under the project (3z(BStatitically significant relational data mining.(3y (BThe goal of the project was to add more statistical rigor to the fairly ad hoc area of data mining on graphs. Our goal was to develop better algorithms and better ways to evaluate algorithm quality. We concetrated on algorithms for community detection, approximate pattern matching, and graph similarity measures. Approximate pattern matching involves finding an instance of a relatively small pattern, expressed with tolerance, in a large graph of data observed with uncertainty. This report gathers the abstracts and references for the eight refereed publications that have appeared as part of this work. We then archive three pieces of research that have not yet been published. The first is theoretical and experimental evidence that a popular statistical measure for comparison of community assignments favors over-resolved communities over approximations to a ground truth. The second are statistically motivated methods for measuring the quality of an approximate match of a small pattern in a large graph. The third is a new probabilistic random graph model. Statisticians favor these models for graph analysis. The new local structure graph model overcomes some of the issues with popular models such as exponential random graph models and latent variable models.

  16. Decoherence effect on quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ming, Fei; Wang, Dong; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty principle significantly provides a bound to predict precision of measurement with regard to any two incompatible observables, and thereby plays a nontrivial role in quantum precision measurement. In this work, we observe the dynamical features of the quantum-memory-assisted entropic uncertainty relations (EUR) for a pair of incompatible measurements in an open system characterized by local generalized amplitude damping (GAD) noises. Herein, we derive the dynamical evolution of the entropic uncertainty with respect to the measurement affecting by the canonical GAD noises when particle A is initially entangled with quantum memory B. Specifically, we examine the dynamics of EUR in the frame of three realistic scenarios: one case is that particle A is affected by environmental noise (GAD) while particle B as quantum memory is free from any noises, another case is that particle B is affected by the external noise while particle A is not, and the last case is that both of the particles suffer from the noises. By analytical methods, it turns out that the uncertainty is not full dependent of quantum correlation evolution of the composite system consisting of A and B, but the minimal conditional entropy of the measured subsystem. Furthermore, we present a possible physical interpretation for the behavior of the uncertainty evolution by means of the mixedness of the observed system; we argue that the uncertainty might be dramatically correlated with the systematic mixedness. Furthermore, we put forward a simple and effective strategy to reduce the measuring uncertainty of interest upon quantum partially collapsed measurement. Therefore, our explorations might offer an insight into the dynamics of the entropic uncertainty relation in a realistic system, and be of importance to quantum precision measurement during quantum information processing.

  17. Radiotherapy for breast cancer: respiratory and set-up uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saliou, M.G.; Giraud, P.; Simon, L.; Fournier-Bidoz, N.; Fourquet, A.; Dendale, R.; Rosenwald, J.C.; Cosset, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    Adjuvant Radiotherapy has been shown to significantly reduce locoregional recurrence but this advantage is associated with increased cardiovascular and pulmonary morbidities. All uncertainties inherent to conformal radiation therapy must be identified in order to increase the precision of treatment; misestimation of these uncertainties increases the potential risk of geometrical misses with, as a consequence, under-dosage of the tumor and/or overdosage of healthy tissues. Geometric uncertainties due to respiratory movements or set-up errors are well known. Two strategies have been proposed to limit their effect: quantification of these uncertainties, which are then taken into account in the final calculation of safety margins and/or reduction of respiratory and set-up uncertainties by an efficient immobilization or gating systems. Measured on portal films with two tangential fields. CLD (central lung distance), defined as the distance between the deep field edge and the interior chest wall at the central axis, seems to be the best predictor of set-up uncertainties. Using CLD, estimated mean set-up errors from the literature are 3.8 and 3.2 mm for the systematic and random errors respectively. These depend partly on the type of immobilization device and could be reduced by the use of portal imaging systems. Furthermore, breast is mobile during respiration with motion amplitude as high as 0.8 to 10 mm in the anteroposterior direction. Respiratory gating techniques, currently on evaluation, have the potential to reduce effect of these movements. Each radiotherapy department should perform its own assessments and determine the geometric uncertainties with respect of the equipment used and its particular treatment practices. This paper is a review of the main geometric uncertainties in breast treatment, due to respiration and set-up, and solutions proposed to limit their impact. (author)

  18. Horsetail matching: a flexible approach to optimization under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, L. W.; Jarrett, J. P.

    2018-04-01

    It is important to design engineering systems to be robust with respect to uncertainties in the design process. Often, this is done by considering statistical moments, but over-reliance on statistical moments when formulating a robust optimization can produce designs that are stochastically dominated by other feasible designs. This article instead proposes a formulation for optimization under uncertainty that minimizes the difference between a design's cumulative distribution function and a target. A standard target is proposed that produces stochastically non-dominated designs, but the formulation also offers enough flexibility to recover existing approaches for robust optimization. A numerical implementation is developed that employs kernels to give a differentiable objective function. The method is applied to algebraic test problems and a robust transonic airfoil design problem where it is compared to multi-objective, weighted-sum and density matching approaches to robust optimization; several advantages over these existing methods are demonstrated.

  19. Uncertainty about probability: a decision analysis perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    The issue of how to think about uncertainty about probability is framed and analyzed from the viewpoint of a decision analyst. The failure of nuclear power plants is used as an example. The key idea is to think of probability as describing a state of information on an uncertain event, and to pose the issue of uncertainty in this quantity as uncertainty about a number that would be definitive: it has the property that you would assign it as the probability if you knew it. Logical consistency requires that the probability to assign to a single occurrence in the absence of further information be the mean of the distribution of this definitive number, not the medium as is sometimes suggested. Any decision that must be made without the benefit of further information must also be made using the mean of the definitive number's distribution. With this formulation, they find further that the probability of r occurrences in n exchangeable trials will depend on the first n moments of the definitive number's distribution. In making decisions, the expected value of clairvoyance on the occurrence of the event must be at least as great as that on the definitive number. If one of the events in question occurs, then the increase in probability of another such event is readily computed. This means, in terms of coin tossing, that unless one is absolutely sure of the fairness of a coin, seeing a head must increase the probability of heads, in distinction to usual thought. A numerical example for nuclear power shows that the failure of one plant of a group with a low probability of failure can significantly increase the probability that must be assigned to failure of a second plant in the group

  20. Uncertainty and its propagation in dynamics models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Devooght, J.

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to bring together some characteristics due to uncertainty when we deal with dynamic models and therefore to propagation of uncertainty. The respective role of uncertainty and inaccuracy is examined. A mathematical formalism based on Chapman-Kolmogorov equation allows to define a open-quotes subdynamicsclose quotes where the evolution equation takes the uncertainty into account. The problem of choosing or combining models is examined through a loss function associated to a decision

  1. Some illustrative examples of model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bier, V.M.

    1994-01-01

    In this paper, we first discuss the view of model uncertainty proposed by Apostolakis. We then present several illustrative examples related to model uncertainty, some of which are not well handled by this formalism. Thus, Apostolakis' approach seems to be well suited to describing some types of model uncertainty, but not all. Since a comprehensive approach for characterizing and quantifying model uncertainty is not yet available, it is hoped that the examples presented here will service as a springboard for further discussion

  2. The Uncertainty Multiplier and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Saijo, Hikaru

    2013-01-01

    I study a business cycle model where agents learn about the state of the economy by accumulating capital. During recessions, agents invest less, and this generates noisier estimates of macroeconomic conditions and an increase in uncertainty. The endogenous increase in aggregate uncertainty further reduces economic activity, which in turn leads to more uncertainty, and so on. Thus, through changes in uncertainty, learning gives rise to a multiplier effect that amplifies business cycles. I use ...

  3. Impact of AMS-02 Measurements on Reducing GCR Model Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slaba, T. C.; O'Neill, P. M.; Golge, S.; Norbury, J. W.

    2015-01-01

    For vehicle design, shield optimization, mission planning, and astronaut risk assessment, the exposure from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) poses a significant and complex problem both in low Earth orbit and in deep space. To address this problem, various computational tools have been developed to quantify the exposure and risk in a wide range of scenarios. Generally, the tool used to describe the ambient GCR environment provides the input into subsequent computational tools and is therefore a critical component of end-to-end procedures. Over the past few years, several researchers have independently and very carefully compared some of the widely used GCR models to more rigorously characterize model differences and quantify uncertainties. All of the GCR models studied rely heavily on calibrating to available near-Earth measurements of GCR particle energy spectra, typically over restricted energy regions and short time periods. In this work, we first review recent sensitivity studies quantifying the ions and energies in the ambient GCR environment of greatest importance to exposure quantities behind shielding. Currently available measurements used to calibrate and validate GCR models are also summarized within this context. It is shown that the AMS-II measurements will fill a critically important gap in the measurement database. The emergence of AMS-II measurements also provides a unique opportunity to validate existing models against measurements that were not used to calibrate free parameters in the empirical descriptions. Discussion is given regarding rigorous approaches to implement the independent validation efforts, followed by recalibration of empirical parameters.

  4. Uncertainty Analysis of In leakage Test for Pressurized Control Room Envelop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, J. B. [KHNP Central Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In leakage tests for control room envelops(CRE) of newly constructed nuclear power plants are required to prove the control room habitability. Results of the in leakage tests should be analyzed using an uncertainty analysis. Test uncertainty can be an issue if the test results for pressurized CREs show low in leakage. To have a better knowledge of the test uncertainty, a statistical model for the uncertainty analysis is described here and a representative uncertainty analysis of a sample in leakage test is presented. A statistical method for analyzing the uncertainty of the in leakage test is presented here and a representative uncertainty analysis of a sample in leakage test was performed. By using the statistical method we can evaluate the test result with certain level of significance. This method can be more helpful when the difference of the two mean values of the test result is small.

  5. A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume, Joseph H. A.; Qureshi, M. Ejaz; Jakeman, Anthony J.

    2012-08-01

    Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty analysis was conducted of a dynamic coupled economic-groundwater model aimed at assessing groundwater extraction rules. The analysis demonstrates how a variety of uncertainties in such a model can be addressed. A number of methods are used including propagation of scenarios and bounds on parameters, multiple models, block bootstrap time-series sampling and robust linear regression for model calibration. These methods are described within the context of a theoretical uncertainty management framework, using a set of fundamental uncertainty management tasks and an uncertainty typology.

  6. Uncertainty Analysis of In leakage Test for Pressurized Control Room Envelop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, J. B.

    2013-01-01

    In leakage tests for control room envelops(CRE) of newly constructed nuclear power plants are required to prove the control room habitability. Results of the in leakage tests should be analyzed using an uncertainty analysis. Test uncertainty can be an issue if the test results for pressurized CREs show low in leakage. To have a better knowledge of the test uncertainty, a statistical model for the uncertainty analysis is described here and a representative uncertainty analysis of a sample in leakage test is presented. A statistical method for analyzing the uncertainty of the in leakage test is presented here and a representative uncertainty analysis of a sample in leakage test was performed. By using the statistical method we can evaluate the test result with certain level of significance. This method can be more helpful when the difference of the two mean values of the test result is small

  7. Uncertainty Characterization of Reactor Vessel Fracture Toughness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Fei; Modarres, Mohammad

    2002-01-01

    To perform fracture mechanics analysis of reactor vessel, fracture toughness (K Ic ) at various temperatures would be necessary. In a best estimate approach, K Ic uncertainties resulting from both lack of sufficient knowledge and randomness in some of the variables of K Ic must be characterized. Although it may be argued that there is only one type of uncertainty, which is lack of perfect knowledge about the subject under study, as a matter of practice K Ic uncertainties can be divided into two types: aleatory and epistemic. Aleatory uncertainty is related to uncertainty that is very difficult to reduce, if not impossible; epistemic uncertainty, on the other hand, can be practically reduced. Distinction between aleatory and epistemic uncertainties facilitates decision-making under uncertainty and allows for proper propagation of uncertainties in the computation process. Typically, epistemic uncertainties representing, for example, parameters of a model are sampled (to generate a 'snapshot', single-value of the parameters), but the totality of aleatory uncertainties is carried through the calculation as available. In this paper a description of an approach to account for these two types of uncertainties associated with K Ic has been provided. (authors)

  8. Uncertainty in prediction and in inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilgevoord, J.; Uffink, J.

    1991-01-01

    The concepts of uncertainty in prediction and inference are introduced and illustrated using the diffraction of light as an example. The close re-lationship between the concepts of uncertainty in inference and resolving power is noted. A general quantitative measure of uncertainty in

  9. Flood modelling : Parameterisation and inflow uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mukolwe, M.M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Werner, M.; Solomatine, D.P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of uncertainty in hydraulic modelling of floods, focusing on the inaccuracy caused by inflow errors and parameter uncertainty. In particular, the study develops a method to propagate the uncertainty induced by, firstly, application of a stage–discharge rating curve

  10. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kirchner, G.; Peterson, R.

    1996-11-01

    Uncertainty in predictions of environmental transfer models arises from, among other sources, the adequacy of the conceptual model, the approximations made in coding the conceptual model, the quality of the input data, the uncertainty in parameter values, and the assumptions made by the user. In recent years efforts to quantify the confidence that can be placed in predictions have been increasing, but have concentrated on a statistical propagation of the influence of parameter uncertainties on the calculational results. The primary objective of this Working Group of BIOMOVS II was to test user's influence on model predictions on a more systematic basis than has been done before. The main goals were as follows: To compare differences between predictions from different people all using the same model and the same scenario description with the statistical uncertainties calculated by the model. To investigate the main reasons for different interpretations by users. To create a better awareness of the potential influence of the user on the modeling results. Terrestrial food chain models driven by deposition of radionuclides from the atmosphere were used. Three codes were obtained and run with three scenarios by a maximum of 10 users. A number of conclusions can be drawn some of which are general and independent of the type of models and processes studied, while others are restricted to the few processes that were addressed directly: For any set of predictions, the variation in best estimates was greater than one order of magnitude. Often the range increased from deposition to pasture to milk probably due to additional transfer processes. The 95% confidence intervals about the predictions calculated from the parameter distributions prepared by the participants did not always overlap the observations; similarly, sometimes the confidence intervals on the predictions did not overlap. Often the 95% confidence intervals of individual predictions were smaller than the

  11. Uncertainty and validation. Effect of user interpretation on uncertainty estimates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirchner, G. [Univ. of Bremen (Germany); Peterson, R. [AECL, Chalk River, ON (Canada)] [and others

    1996-11-01

    Uncertainty in predictions of environmental transfer models arises from, among other sources, the adequacy of the conceptual model, the approximations made in coding the conceptual model, the quality of the input data, the uncertainty in parameter values, and the assumptions made by the user. In recent years efforts to quantify the confidence that can be placed in predictions have been increasing, but have concentrated on a statistical propagation of the influence of parameter uncertainties on the calculational results. The primary objective of this Working Group of BIOMOVS II was to test user's influence on model predictions on a more systematic basis than has been done before. The main goals were as follows: To compare differences between predictions from different people all using the same model and the same scenario description with the statistical uncertainties calculated by the model. To investigate the main reasons for different interpretations by users. To create a better awareness of the potential influence of the user on the modeling results. Terrestrial food chain models driven by deposition of radionuclides from the atmosphere were used. Three codes were obtained and run with three scenarios by a maximum of 10 users. A number of conclusions can be drawn some of which are general and independent of the type of models and processes studied, while others are restricted to the few processes that were addressed directly: For any set of predictions, the variation in best estimates was greater than one order of magnitude. Often the range increased from deposition to pasture to milk probably due to additional transfer processes. The 95% confidence intervals about the predictions calculated from the parameter distributions prepared by the participants did not always overlap the observations; similarly, sometimes the confidence intervals on the predictions did not overlap. Often the 95% confidence intervals of individual predictions were smaller than the

  12. Cassini Spacecraft Uncertainty Analysis Data and Methodology Review and Update/Volume 1: Updated Parameter Uncertainty Models for the Consequence Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    WHEELER, TIMOTHY A.; WYSS, GREGORY D.; HARPER, FREDERICK T.

    2000-11-01

    Uncertainty distributions for specific parameters of the Cassini General Purpose Heat Source Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (GPHS-RTG) Final Safety Analysis Report consequence risk analysis were revised and updated. The revisions and updates were done for all consequence parameters for which relevant information exists from the joint project on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Commission of European Communities.

  13. Accounting for data uncertainties in comparing risks from energy systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauptmanns, Ulrich

    1998-01-01

    Data and models for risk comparisons are uncertain and this is true all the more the larger the time horizon contemplated. Statistical methods are presented for dealing with data uncertainties thus providing a broader foundation for decisions. Nevertheless, it has to be borne in mind that no method exists to account for the 'unforeseeable' which is always present in decision making with respect to the far future. (author)

  14. Uncertainty of climate change impacts and consequences on the prediction of future hydrological trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minville, M.; Brissette, F.; Leconte, R.

    2008-01-01

    In the future, water is very likely to be the resource that will be most severely affected by climate change. It has been shown that small perturbations in precipitation frequency and/or quantity can result in significant impacts on the mean annual discharge. Moreover, modest changes in natural inflows result in larger changes in reservoir storage. There is however great uncertainty linked to changes in both the magnitude and direction of future hydrological trends. This presentation discusses the various sources of this uncertainty and their potential impact on the prediction of future hydrological trends. A companion paper will look at adaptation potential, taking into account some of the sources of uncertainty discussed in this presentation. Uncertainty is separated into two main components: climatic uncertainty and 'model and methods' uncertainty. Climatic uncertainty is linked to uncertainty in future greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES) and to general circulation models (GCMs), whose representation of topography and climate processes is imperfect, in large part due to computational limitations. The uncertainty linked to natural variability (which may or may not increase) is also part of the climatic uncertainty. 'Model and methods' uncertainty regroups the uncertainty linked to the different approaches and models needed to transform climate data so that they can be used by hydrological models (such as downscaling methods) and the uncertainty of the models themselves and of their use in a changed climate. The impacts of the various sources of uncertainty on the hydrology of a watershed are demonstrated on the Peribonka River basin (Quebec, Canada). The results indicate that all sources of uncertainty can be important and outline the importance of taking these sources into account for any impact and adaptation studies. Recommendations are outlined for such studies. (author)

  15. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

    2017-07-01

    With low implementation of cost-effective health technologies being a problem in many health systems, it is worth considering the potential effects of research on implementation at the time of health technology assessment. Meaningful and realistic implementation estimates must be of dynamic nature. To extend existing methods for assessing the value of research studies in terms of both reduction of uncertainty and improvement in implementation by considering diffusion based on expert beliefs with and without further research conditional on the strength of evidence. We use expected value of sample information and expected value of specific implementation measure concepts accounting for the effects of specific research studies on implementation and the reduction of uncertainty. Diffusion theory and elicitation of expert beliefs about the shape of diffusion curves inform implementation dynamics. We illustrate use of the resulting dynamic expected value of research in a preterm birth screening technology and results are compared with those from a static analysis. Allowing for diffusion based on expert beliefs had a significant impact on the expected value of research in the case study, suggesting that mistakes are made where static implementation levels are assumed. Incorporating the effects of research on implementation resulted in an increase in the expected value of research compared to the expected value of sample information alone. Assessing the expected value of research in reducing uncertainty and improving implementation dynamics has the potential to complement currently used analyses in health technology assessments, especially in recommendations for further research. The combination of expected value of research, diffusion theory, and elicitation described in this article is an important addition to the existing methods of health technology assessment.

  17. Quantum Uncertainty and Fundamental Interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tosto S.

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simplified theoretical approach to infer some essential concepts on the fundamental interactions between charged particles and their relative strengths at comparable energies by exploiting the quantum uncertainty only. The worth of the present approach relies on the way of obtaining the results, rather than on the results themselves: concepts today acknowledged as fingerprints of the electroweak and strong interactions appear indeed rooted in the same theoretical frame including also the basic principles of special and general relativity along with the gravity force.

  18. Uncertainty analysis in seismic tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owoc, Bartosz; Majdański, Mariusz

    2017-04-01

    Velocity field from seismic travel time tomography depends on several factors like regularization, inversion path, model parameterization etc. The result also strongly depends on an initial velocity model and precision of travel times picking. In this research we test dependence on starting model in layered tomography and compare it with effect of picking precision. Moreover, in our analysis for manual travel times picking the uncertainty distribution is asymmetric. This effect is shifting the results toward faster velocities. For calculation we are using JIVE3D travel time tomographic code. We used data from geo-engineering and industrial scale investigations, which were collected by our team from IG PAS.

  19. Modelling of Transport Projects Uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

    2009-01-01

    This paper proposes a new way of handling the uncertainties present in transport decision making based on infrastructure appraisals. The paper suggests to combine the principle of Optimism Bias, which depicts the historical tendency of overestimating transport related benefits and underestimating...... to supplement Optimism Bias and the associated Reference Class Forecasting (RCF) technique with a new technique that makes use of a scenario-grid. We tentatively introduce and refer to this as Reference Scenario Forecasting (RSF). The final RSF output from the CBA-DK model consists of a set of scenario......-based graphs which function as risk-related decision support for the appraised transport infrastructure project....

  20. Medical Need, Equality, and Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, L Chad

    2016-10-01

    Many hold that distributing healthcare according to medical need is a requirement of equality. Most egalitarians believe, however, that people ought to be equal on the whole, by some overall measure of well-being or life-prospects; it would be a massive coincidence if distributing healthcare according to medical need turned out to be an effective way of promoting equality overall. I argue that distributing healthcare according to medical need is important for reducing individuals' uncertainty surrounding their future medical needs. In other words, distributing healthcare according to medical need is a natural feature of healthcare insurance; it is about indemnity, not equality. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.