WorldWideScience

Sample records for significant seasonal variability

  1. Seasonal Variability in European Radon Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves-Kirkby, C. J.; Denman, A. R.; Phillips, P. S.; Crockett, R. G. M.; Sinclair, J. M.

    2009-04-01

    In temperate climates, domestic radon concentration levels are generally seasonally dependent, the level in the home reflecting the convolution of two time-dependent functions. These are the source soil-gas radon concentration itself, and the principal force driving radon into the building from the soil, namely the pressure-difference between interior and exterior environment. While the meteorological influence can be regarded as relatively uniform on a European scale, its variability being defined largely by the influence of North-Atlantic weather systems, soil-gas radon is generally more variable as it is essentially geologically dependent. Seasonal variability of domestic radon concentration can therefore be expected to exhibit geographical variability, as is indeed the case. To compensate for the variability of domestic radon levels when assessing the long term radon health risks, the results of individual short-term measurements are generally converted to equivalent mean annual levels by application of a Seasonal Correction Factor (SCF). This is a multiplying factor, typically derived from measurements of a large number of homes, applied to the measured short-term radon concentration to provide a meaningful annual mean concentration for dose-estimation purposes. Following concern as to the universal applicability of a single SCF set, detailed studies in both the UK and France have reported location-specific SCF sets for different regions of each country. Further results indicate that SCFs applicable to the UK differ significantly from those applicable elsewhere in Europe and North America in both amplitude and phase, supporting the thesis that seasonal variability in indoor radon concentration cannot realistically be compensated for by a single national or international SCF scheme. Published data characterising the seasonal variability of European national domestic radon concentrations, has been collated and analysed, with the objective of identifying

  2. Comparison of seasonal variability in European domestic radon measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groves-Kirkby, C. J.; Denman, A. R.; Phillips, P. S.; Crockett, R. G. M.; Sinclair, J. M.

    2010-03-01

    Analysis of published data characterising seasonal variability of domestic radon concentrations in Europe and elsewhere shows significant variability between different countries and between regions where regional data is available. Comparison is facilitated by application of the Gini Coefficient methodology to reported seasonal variation data. Overall, radon-rich sedimentary strata, particularly high-porosity limestones, exhibit high seasonal variation, while radon-rich igneous lithologies demonstrate relatively constant, but somewhat higher, radon concentrations. High-variability regions include the Pennines and South Downs in England, Languedoc and Brittany in France, and especially Switzerland. Low-variability high-radon regions include the granite-rich Cornwall/Devon peninsula in England, and Auvergne and Ardennes in France, all components of the Devonian-Carboniferous Hercynian belt.

  3. Comparison of seasonal variability in European domestic radon measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. J. Groves-Kirkby

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Analysis of published data characterising seasonal variability of domestic radon concentrations in Europe and elsewhere shows significant variability between different countries and between regions where regional data is available. Comparison is facilitated by application of the Gini Coefficient methodology to reported seasonal variation data. Overall, radon-rich sedimentary strata, particularly high-porosity limestones, exhibit high seasonal variation, while radon-rich igneous lithologies demonstrate relatively constant, but somewhat higher, radon concentrations. High-variability regions include the Pennines and South Downs in England, Languedoc and Brittany in France, and especially Switzerland. Low-variability high-radon regions include the granite-rich Cornwall/Devon peninsula in England, and Auvergne and Ardennes in France, all components of the Devonian-Carboniferous Hercynian belt.

  4. Seasonal variability of salinity and circulation in a silled estuarine fjord: A numerical model study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawase, Mitsuhiro; Bang, Bohyun

    2013-12-01

    A three-dimensional hydrodynamic model is used to study seasonal variability of circulation and hydrography in Hood Canal, Washington, United States, an estuarine fjord that develops seasonally hypoxic conditions. The model is validated with data from year 2006, and is shown to be capable of quantitatively realistic simulation of hydrographic variability. Sensitivity experiments show the largest cause of seasonal variability to be that of salinity at the mouth of the fjord, which drives an annual deep water renewal in late summer-early autumn. Variability of fresh water input from the watershed also causes significant but secondary changes, especially in winter. Local wind stress has little effect over the seasonal timescale. Further experiments, in which one forcing parameter is abruptly altered while others are kept constant, show that outside salinity change induces an immediate response in the exchange circulation that, however, decays as a transient as the system equilibrates. In contrast, a change in the river input initiates gradual adjustment towards a new equilibrium value for the exchange transport. It is hypothesized that the spectral character of the system response to river variability will be redder than to salinity variability. This is demonstrated with a stochastically forced, semi-analytical model of fjord exchange circulation. While the exchange circulation in Hood Canal appears less sensitive to the river variability than to the outside hydrography at seasonal timescales, at decadal and longer timescales both could become significant factors in affecting the exchange circulation.

  5. Seasonal Climatologies and Variability of Eastern Tropical Pacific Surface Waters

    OpenAIRE

    Fiedler, Paul C.

    1992-01-01

    Interannual variability caused by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) is analogous to seasonal variability of comparable magnitude. Climatological spatial patterns and seasonal variability of physical variables that may affect the ETP ecosystem are presented and discussed. Surface temperature, surface salinity, mixed layer depth, thermocline depth, thermocline strength, and surface dynamic height were derived from bathythermograph, hydrocast, and...

  6. Seasonal unit roots in trade variables

    OpenAIRE

    Carol Alexander; Manuel Cantavella Jordá

    1997-01-01

    In this paper we examine the presence of seasonal unit roots in trade variables for Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy, using the procedure developed by Hylleberg, Engle, Granger, and Yoo (1990) [HEGY]. Both quarterly and monthly data reject the presence of unit roots at most seasonal frequencies, more frequently in quarterly than in monthly data. This has important implications for econometric modeling of trade balance, exchange rates and income in European Union (EU) countries. ...

  7. Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics

    Science.gov (United States)

    S, Sreekanth T.

    begin{center} Large Seasonal Scale Convective-Stratiform Pricipitation Variabilities at Tropics Sreekanth T S*, Suby Symon*, G. Mohan Kumar (1) and V Sasi Kumar (2) *Centre for Earth Science Studies, Akkulam, Thiruvananthapuram (1) D-330, Swathi Nagar, West Fort, Thiruvananthapuram 695023 (2) 32. NCC Nagar Peroorkada, Thiruvananthapuram ABSTRACT This study investigates the variabilities of convective and stratiform rainfall from 2011 to 2013 at a tropical coastal station in three seasons viz Pre-Monsoon (March-May), Monsoon (June-September) and Post-Monsoon (October-December). Understanding the climatological variability of these two dominant forms of precipitation and their implications in the total rainfall were the main objectives of this investigation. Variabilities in the frequency & duration of events, rain rate & total number of rain drops distribution in different events and the accumulated amount of rain water were analysed. Based on the ground & radar observations from optical & impact disdrometers, Micro Rain Radar and Atmospheric Electric Field Mill, precipitation events were classified into convective and stratiform in three seasons. Classification was done by the method followed by Testud et al (2001) and as an additional information electrical behaviour of clouds from Atmospheric Electric Field Mill is also used. Events which could not be included in both types were termed as 'mixed precipitation' and were included separately. Diurnal variability of the total rainfall in each seasons were also examined. For both convective and stratiform rainfall there exist distinct day-night differences. During nocturnal hours convective rain draged more attention. In all seasons almost 70% of rain duration and 60% of rain events of convective origin were confined to nocturnal hours. But stratiform rain was not affected by diurnal variations greatly because night time occurrences of stratiform duration and events were less than 50%. Also in Monsoon above 35% of

  8. Seasonality in trauma admissions - Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Røislien, Jo; Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

    2018-01-01

    Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001-2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year.

  9. Seasonal variability of microbial biomass phosphorus in urban soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halecki, W; Gąsiorek, M

    2015-01-01

    Urban soils have been formed through human activities. Seasonal evaluation with time-control procedure are essential for plant, and activity of microorganisms. Therefore, these processes are crucial in the urban area due to geochemical changes in the past years. The purpose of this study was to investigate the changes of content of microbial biomass phosphorus (P) in the top layer of soils throughout the season. In this research, the concentration of microbial biomass P ranged from 0.01 to 6.29 mg·kg(-1). We used single-factor repeated-measure analysis of variance to test the effect of season on microbial biomass P content of selected urban soils. We found no statistically significant differences between the concentration of microbial biomass P in the investigated urban and sub-urban soils during the growing season. This analysis explicitly recognised that environmental urban conditions are steady. Specifically, we have studied how vegetation seasonality and ability of microbial biomass P are useful for detecting quality deviations, which affect the equilibrium of urban soil. In conclusion, seasonal variability of the stringency of assurance across the different compounds of soil reveals, as expected, the stable condition of the urban soils. Seasonal responses in microbial biomass P under urban soil use should establish a framework as a reference to the activity of the microorganisms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. The Karakoram/Western Tibetan vortex: seasonal and year-to-year variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Feng; Fowler, Hayley J.; Forsythe, Nathan; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Pritchard, David

    2018-02-01

    The "Karakoram Vortex" (KV), hereafter also referred to as the "Western Tibetan Vortex" (WTV), has recently been recognized as a large-scale atmospheric circulation system related to warmer (cooler) near-surface and mid-lower troposphere temperatures above the Karakoram in the western Tibetan Plateau (TP). It is characterized by a deep, anti-cyclonic (cyclonic) wind anomaly associated with higher (lower) geopotential height in the troposphere, during winter and summer seasons. In this study, we further investigate the seasonality and basic features of the WTV in all four seasons, and explore its year-to-year variability and influence on regional climate. We find the WTV accounts for the majority of year-to-year circulation variability over the WTP as it can explain over 50% ({R^2} ≥slant 0.5 ) variance of the WTP circulation on multiple levels throughout the troposphere, which declines towards the eastern side of the TP in most seasons. The WTV is not only more (less) active but also has a bigger (smaller) domain area, with a deeper (shallower) structure, in winter and spring (summer and autumn). We find that the WTV is sensitive to both the location and intensity of the Subtropical Westerly Jet (SWJ), but the relationship is highly dependent on the climatological mean location of SWJ axes relative to the TP in different seasons. We also show that the WTV significantly modulates surface and stratospheric air temperatures, north-south precipitation patterns and total column ozone surrounding the western TP. As such, the WTV has important implications for the understanding of atmospheric, hydrological and glaciological variability over the TP.

  11. Seasonality in trauma admissions – Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Søvik, Signe; Eken, Torsten

    2018-01-01

    Background Trauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year. Methods Retrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001–2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). Results A regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models. Conclusion Daylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year. PMID:29425210

  12. Theory of planned behaviour variables and objective walking behaviour do not show seasonal variation in a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Stefanie L; French, David P

    2014-02-05

    Longitudinal studies have shown that objectively measured walking behaviour is subject to seasonal variation, with people walking more in summer compared to winter. Seasonality therefore may have the potential to bias the results of randomised controlled trials if there are not adequate statistical or design controls. Despite this there are no studies that assess the impact of seasonality on walking behaviour in a randomised controlled trial, to quantify the extent of such bias. Further there have been no studies assessing how season impacts on the psychological predictors of walking behaviour to date. The aim of the present study was to assess seasonal differences in a) objective walking behaviour and b) Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) variables during a randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking. 315 patients were recruited to a two-arm cluster randomised controlled trial of an intervention to promote walking in primary care. A series of repeated measures ANCOVAs were conducted to examine the effect of season on pedometer measures of walking behaviour and TPB measures, assessed immediately post-intervention and six months later. Hierarchical regression analyses were conducted to assess whether season moderated the prediction of intention and behaviour by TPB measures. There were no significant differences in time spent walking in spring/summer compared to autumn/winter. There was no significant seasonal variation in most TPB variables, although the belief that there will be good weather was significantly higher in spring/summer (F = 19.46, p behaviour, or moderate the effects of TPB variables on intention or behaviour. Seasonality does not influence objectively measured walking behaviour or psychological variables during a randomised controlled trial. Consequently physical activity behaviour outcomes in trials will not be biased by the season in which they are measured. Previous studies may have overestimated the extent of

  13. Seasonal variability of soil aggregate stability

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rohošková, M.; Kodešová, R.; Jirků, V.; Žigová, Anna; Kozák, J.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 11, - (2009), , , EGU2009-6341-3-EGU2009-6341-3 ISSN 1029-7006. [European Geosciences Union General Assembly. 19.04.2009-24.04.2009, Vienna] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA526/08/0434 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30130516 Keywords : seasonal variability * soil aggregate stability * soil types Subject RIV: DF - Soil Science

  14. Seasonal Variability of Airborne Particulate Matter and Bacterial Concentrations in Colorado Homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas Clements

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol measurements were collected at fifteen homes over the course of one year in Colorado (USA to understand the temporal variability of indoor air particulate matter and bacterial concentrations and their relationship with home characteristics, inhabitant activities, and outdoor air particulate matter (PM. Indoor and outdoor PM2.5 concentrations averaged (±st. dev. 8.1 ± 8.1 μg/m3 and 6.8 ± 4.5 μg/m3, respectively. Indoor PM2.5 was statistically significantly higher during summer compared to spring and winter; outdoor PM2.5 was significantly higher for summer compared to spring and fall. The PM2.5 I/O ratio was 1.6 ± 2.4 averaged across all homes and seasons and was not statistically significantly different across the seasons. Average indoor PM10 was 15.4 ± 18.3 μg/m3 and was significantly higher during summer compared to all other seasons. Total suspended particulate bacterial biomass, as determined by qPCR, revealed very little seasonal differences across and within the homes. The qPCR I/O ratio was statistically different across seasons, with the highest I/O ratio in the spring and lowest in the summer. Using one-minute indoor PM10 data and activity logs, it was observed that elevated particulate concentrations commonly occurred when inhabitants were cooking and during periods with elevated outdoor concentrations.

  15. The application of seasonal latent variable in forecasting electricity demand as an alternative method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sumer, Kutluk Kagan; Goktas, Ozlem; Hepsag, Aycan

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we used ARIMA, seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) and alternatively the regression model with seasonal latent variable in forecasting electricity demand by using data that belongs to 'Kayseri and Vicinity Electricity Joint-Stock Company' over the 1997:1-2005:12 periods. This study tries to examine the advantages of forecasting with ARIMA, SARIMA methods and with the model has seasonal latent variable to each other. The results support that ARIMA and SARIMA models are unsuccessful in forecasting electricity demand. The regression model with seasonal latent variable used in this study gives more successful results than ARIMA and SARIMA models because also this model can consider seasonal fluctuations and structural breaks

  16. SEASONAL ASSESSMENT OF HYDROGRAPHIC VARIABLES AND PHYTOPLANKTON COMMUNITY IN THE ARABIAN SEA WATERS OF KERALA, SOUTHWEST COAST OF INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sushanth Vishwanath Rai

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal variation of the hydrographic variables and phytoplankton species in the Arabian Sea waters of the Kerala coast, Southern India was investigated during different seasons. The variables such as pH, temperature, salinity, turbidity and chlorophyll-a contents of water were found to be high during pre-monsoon season and the dissolved oxygen content was minimal. The concentration of nutrients viz., nitrate, phosphate, silicate varied independently. In the study a total of 53 species of phytoplankton were recorded. Their density was higher during the post-monsoon season than during other seasons and the diatoms were found to be the dominant species. The major phytoplankton in terms of frequency and abundance were the species namely, Biddulphia mobiliensis, Chaetoceros curvisetus, Licmophora abbreviata, Skeletonema costatum, Prorocentrum micans and Oscillatoria sp. They showed significant positive correlation with pH, temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate and chlorophyll-a contents, whereas turbidity, dissolved oxygen and silicate exhibited significant negative correlation. The Principal Component Analysis (PCA developed two principal components with 84.74% of total variability in the water quality which separated pre- and post-monsoon periods from the monsoon season on axis I, and pre-monsoon and monsoon periods from post-monsoon on axis II.

  17. Observing Seasonal and Diurnal Hydrometeorological Variability Within a Tropical Alpine Valley: Implications for Evapotranspiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, R. A.; Mark, B. G.

    2007-12-01

    Conditions of glacier recession in the seasonally dry tropical Peruvian Andes motivate research to better constrain the hydrological balance in alpine valleys. There is an outstanding need to better understand the impact of the pronounced tropical hygric seasonality on energy and water budgets within pro-glacial valleys that channel glacier runoff to stream flow. This paper presents a novel embedded network installed in the glacierized Llanganuco valley of the Cordillera Blanca (9°S) comprising eight low-cost, discrete temperature and humidity microloggers ranging from 3470 to 4740 masl and an automatic weather station at 3850 masl. Data are aggregated into distinct dry and wet periods sampled from two full annual cycles (2004-2006) to explore patterns of diurnal and seasonal variability. The magnitude of diurnal solar radiation varies little within the valley between the dry and wet periods, while wet season near-surface air temperatures are cooler. Seasonally characteristic diurnal fluctuations in lapse rate partially regulate convection and humidity. Steep lapse rates during the wet season afternoon promote up-slope convection of warm, moist air and nocturnal rainfall events. Standardized grass reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was estimated using the FAO-56 algorithm of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization and compared with estimates of actual ET from the process-based BROOK90 model that incorporates more realistic vegetation parameters. Comparisons of composite diurnal cycles of ET for the wet and dry periods suggest about twice the daily ET0 during the dry period, attributed primarily to the 500% higher vapor pressure deficit and 20% higher daily total solar irradiance. Conversely, the near absence of rainfall during the dry season diminishes actual ET below that of the wet season by two orders of magnitude. Nearly cloud-free daylight conditions are critical for ET during the wet season. We found significant variability of ET with elevation

  18. Seasonal variability of the M2 tide in the seas adjacent to Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sok Kuh; Chung, Jong-yul; Lee, Sang-Ryong; Yum, Ki-Dat

    1995-08-01

    Seasonal variability of the M2 tidal harmonic constants is revealed through analyses of monthly tidal data at 12 representative tidal stations in the seas adjacent to the Korean peninsula. The variability remain systematic over the 9 years (1965-1973) of data analysis with a range comparable to that of the 18.6 year nodal modulation. Spatial inhomogeneity of the seasonal variability in the observed harmonic constants is found to exist. The largest seasonal variability in M2 appears in the stations located along the Korea Strait. This variability is not explained by the equilibrium theory of tides, and such a variability or irregularities in the harmonic constants are considered as either a noise as done by Cartwright and Amin (1986), Deutsch Hydrography Zeitschrift, 39, 235-253, or a manifestation of frictional interaction as done by Godin and Gutierrez (1986) Continental Shelf Research, 5, 379-402 for the Bay of Fundy. Considering the opposite relation between monthly mean sea level differences in Izuhara-Pusan section and tidal characteristics in the Korea Strait, it is hypothesized that the interaction between the predominant tidal currents and oceanic currents varying with the seasons might be the main cause of the observed temporal variability in the M2 tide. The nonlinear effect of the Kuroshio is investigated along the shelf break region through scale analyses, which show that the presence of a mean current increases the non-linear terms in the momentum balance by about one order of magnitude. The seasonally different damping effect of the Tsushima Current to the M2 tide is also discussed to explain the process of dominant seasonal variability along the Korea Strait based on the actual current data, but further thorough investigation, considering the advection effect of the mean current, is required to investigate the associated dynamics more completely.

  19. Seasonal dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) variability in Dona Paula Bay

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Kumar, S.S.; Chinchkar, U.; Nair, S.; LokaBharathi, P.A.; Chandramohan, D.

    as producers of DMSP in Dona Paula bay. Dinoflagellates also contributed during the non-monsoon seasons. Another factor involved in the variability of DMSPt was DMSP utilizing bacteria, which ranged from 1 to 10% of the total heterotrophic count...

  20. Seasonal and annual variability of coastal sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Ohde

    Full Text Available We investigated the seasonal and annual variability of surface sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system off Namibia because of their significant impacts on the marine ecosystem, fishing industry, aquaculture farming and tourism due to their toxic properties. We identified the sulphur plumes in ocean colour satellite data of the medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS for the 2002-2012 time period using the differences in the spectral properties of Namibian Benguela optical water types. The sulphur events have a strong seasonal cycle with pronounced main and off-seasons forced by local and remote-driven processes. The main peak season is in late austral summer and early austral autumn at the beginning of the annual upwelling cycle caused by increasing equatorwards alongshore winds. The sulphur plume activity is high between February and April during the seasonal oxygen minimum associated with the seasonal reduction of cross-shore ventilation of the bottom waters, the seasonal southernmost position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, the seasonal maximum of water mass fractions of South Atlantic and Angola Gyre Central Waters as well as the seasonal arrival of the downwelling coastal trapped waves. The off-season is in austral spring and early austral summer during increased upwelling intensity and enhanced oxygen supply. The annual variability of sulphur events is characterized by very high activities in years 2004, 2005 and 2010 interrupted by periods of lower activity in years 2002 to 2003, 2006 to 2009 and 2011 to 2012. This result can be explained by the relative contributions or adding effects of local and remote-driven forces (from the equatorial area. The probability for the occurrence of sulphur plumes is enhanced in years with a lower annual mean of upwelling intensity, decreased oxygen supply associated with decreased lateral ventilation of bottom waters, more southern position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone

  1. Seasonal and annual variability of coastal sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohde, Thomas; Dadou, Isabelle

    2018-01-01

    We investigated the seasonal and annual variability of surface sulphur plumes in the northern Benguela upwelling system off Namibia because of their significant impacts on the marine ecosystem, fishing industry, aquaculture farming and tourism due to their toxic properties. We identified the sulphur plumes in ocean colour satellite data of the medium resolution imaging spectrometer (MERIS) for the 2002-2012 time period using the differences in the spectral properties of Namibian Benguela optical water types. The sulphur events have a strong seasonal cycle with pronounced main and off-seasons forced by local and remote-driven processes. The main peak season is in late austral summer and early austral autumn at the beginning of the annual upwelling cycle caused by increasing equatorwards alongshore winds. The sulphur plume activity is high between February and April during the seasonal oxygen minimum associated with the seasonal reduction of cross-shore ventilation of the bottom waters, the seasonal southernmost position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, the seasonal maximum of water mass fractions of South Atlantic and Angola Gyre Central Waters as well as the seasonal arrival of the downwelling coastal trapped waves. The off-season is in austral spring and early austral summer during increased upwelling intensity and enhanced oxygen supply. The annual variability of sulphur events is characterized by very high activities in years 2004, 2005 and 2010 interrupted by periods of lower activity in years 2002 to 2003, 2006 to 2009 and 2011 to 2012. This result can be explained by the relative contributions or adding effects of local and remote-driven forces (from the equatorial area). The probability for the occurrence of sulphur plumes is enhanced in years with a lower annual mean of upwelling intensity, decreased oxygen supply associated with decreased lateral ventilation of bottom waters, more southern position of the Angola Benguela Frontal Zone, increased mass

  2. Seasonal precipitation extreme indices in mainland Portugal: trends and variability in the period 1941-2007

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santo, Fátima E.; Ramos, Alexandre M.; de Lima, M. Isabel P.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

    2013-04-01

    Changes in the precipitation regimes are expected to be accompanied by variations in the occurrence of extreme events, which in turn could be related to low frequency variability. The impact on the society and environment requires that the regional specificities are understood. For mainland Portugal, this work reports the results of the analysis of trends in selected precipitation indices calculated from daily precipitation data from 57 meteorological stations, recorded in the period 1941-2007; additionally we have also investigated the correlations between these indices and several modes of low frequency variability over the area. We focus on exploring regional differences and seasonal variations in the intensity, frequency and duration of extreme precipitation events. The precipitation indices were assessed at the seasonal scale and calculated at both the station and regional scales. Results sometimes highlight marked changes in seasonal precipitation and show that: i) trends in spring and autumn have opposite signals: statistically significant drying trends in the spring are accompanied by a reduction in precipitation extremes; in autumn, wetting trends are detected for all precipitation indices, although overall they are not significant at the 5% level; ii) there seems to be a tendency for a reduction in the duration of the rainy season; iii) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the mode of variability that has the highest influence on precipitation extremes over mainland Portugal, particularly in the winter and autumn, and is one of the most important teleconnection patterns in all seasons. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) through project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

  3. The forcing of monthly precipitation variability over Southwest Asia during the Boreal cold season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoell, Andrew; Shukla, Shraddhanand; Barlow, Mathew; Cannon, Forest; Kelley, Colin; Funk, Christopher C.

    2015-01-01

    Southwest Asia, deemed as the region containing the countries of Afghanistan, Iran, Iraq and Pakistan, is water scarce and receives nearly 75% of its annual rainfall during8 the boreal cold season of November-April. The forcing of Southwest Asia precipitation has been previously examined for the entire boreal cold season from the perspective of climate variability originating over the Atlantic and tropical Indo-Pacific Oceans. Here, we examine the inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability over Southwest Asia and the atmospheric conditions directly responsible in forcing monthly November-April precipitation. Seasonally averaged November-April precipitation over Southwest Asia is significantly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) patterns consistent with Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV), the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the warming trend of SST (Trend). On the contrary, the precipitation variability during individual months of November-April are unrelated and are correlated with SST signatures that include PDV, ENSO and Trend in different combinations. Despite strong inter-monthly differences in precipitation variability during November- April over Southwest Asia, similar atmospheric circulations, highlighted by a stationary equivalent barotropic Rossby wave centered over Iraq, force the monthly spatial distributions of precipitation. Tropospheric waves on the eastern side of the equivalent barotropic Rossby wave modifies the flux of moisture and advects the mean temperature gradient, resulting in temperature advection that is balanced by vertical motions over Southwest Asia. The forcing of monthly Southwest Asia precipitation by equivalent barotropic Rossby waves is different than the forcing by baroclinic Rossby waves associated with tropically-forced-only modes of climate variability.

  4. Seasonal Variability of Phytoplankton Population in the Brahmani ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Seasonal Variability of Phytoplankton Population in the Brahmani Estuary of Orissa, India. S Palleyi, RN Kar, CR Panda. Abstract. The dynamic relationship of water physico-chemical characteristics with phytoplankton has long been of great interest in both experimental ecology and environmental management. This study ...

  5. On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in the ECHAM3 general circulation model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.

    1994-01-01

    First we consider the GCM's capability to reproduce the midlatitude variability on intra-seasonal time scales by a comparison with observational data (ECMWF analyses). Secondly we assess the possible influence of Sea Surface Temperatures on the intra-seasonal variability by comparing estimates obtained from different simulations performed with ECHAM3 with varying and fixed SST as boundary forcing. The intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is underestimated over most of the Northern Hemisphere. While the contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations are reasonably well captured by the model, ECHAM3 fails to reproduce the observed level of low-frequency intra-seasonal variability. This is mainly due to the underestimation of the variability caused by the ultra-long planetary waves in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes by the model. In the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, on the other hand, the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by ECHAM3 is generally underestimated in the area north of about 50 southern latitude, but overestimated at higher latitudes. This is the case for the contributions of the high-frequency and the low-frequency transient fluctuations as well. Further, the model indicates a strong tendency for zonal symmetry, in particular with respect to the high-frequency transient fluctuations. While the two sets of simulations with varying and fixed Sea Surface Temepratures as boundary forcing reveal only small regional differences in the Southern Hemisphere, there is a strong response to be found in the Northern Hemisphere. The contributions of the high-frequency transient fluctuations to the intra-seasonal variability are generally stronger in the simulations with fixed SST. Further, the Pacific storm track is shifted slightly poleward in this set of simulations. For the low-frequency intra-seasonal variability the model gives a strong, but regional response to the interannual variations of the SST. (orig.)

  6. Modelling Seasonal GWR of Daily PM2.5 with Proper Auxiliary Variables for the Yangtze River Delta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Man Jiang

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decades, regional haze episodes have frequently occurred in eastern China, especially in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD. Satellite derived Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD has been used to retrieve the spatial coverage of PM2.5 concentrations. To improve the retrieval accuracy of the daily AOD-PM2.5 model, various auxiliary variables like meteorological or geographical factors have been adopted into the Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR model. However, these variables are always arbitrarily selected without deep consideration of their potentially varying temporal or spatial contributions in the model performance. In this manuscript, we put forward an automatic procedure to select proper auxiliary variables from meteorological and geographical factors and obtain their optimal combinations to construct four seasonal GWR models. We employ two different schemes to comprehensively test the performance of our proposed GWR models: (1 comparison with other regular GWR models by varying the number of auxiliary variables; and (2 comparison with observed ground-level PM2.5 concentrations. The result shows that our GWR models of “AOD + 3” with three common meteorological variables generally perform better than all the other GWR models involved. Our models also show powerful prediction capabilities in PM2.5 concentrations with only slight overfitting. The determination coefficients R2 of our seasonal models are 0.8259 in spring, 0.7818 in summer, 0.8407 in autumn, and 0.7689 in winter. Also, the seasonal models in summer and autumn behave better than those in spring and winter. The comparison between seasonal and yearly models further validates the specific seasonal pattern of auxiliary variables of the GWR model in the YRD. We also stress the importance of key variables and propose a selection process in the AOD-PM2.5 model. Our work validates the significance of proper auxiliary variables in modelling the AOD-PM2.5 relationships and

  7. On the seasonal cycles and variability of Florida Straits, Ekman and Sverdrup transports at 26° N in the Atlantic Ocean

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    C. P. Atkinson

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Since April 2004 the RAPID array has made continuous measurements of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC at 26° N. Two key components of this system are Ekman transport zonally integrated across 26° N and western boundary current transport in the Florida Straits. Whilst measurements of the AMOC as a whole are somewhat in their infancy, this study investigates what useful information can be extracted on the variability of the Ekman and Florida Straits transports using the decadal timeseries already available. Analysis is also presented for Sverdrup transports zonally integrated across 26° N.

    The seasonal cycles of Florida Straits, Ekman and Sverdrup transports are quantified at 26° N using harmonic analysis of annual and semi-annual constituents. Whilst Sverdrup transport shows clear semi-annual periodicity, calculations of seasonal Florida Straits and Ekman transports show substantial interannual variability due to contamination by variability at non-seasonal frequencies; the mean seasonal cycle for these transports only emerges from decadal length observations. The Florida Straits and Ekman mean seasonal cycles project on the AMOC with a combined peak-to-peak seasonal range of 3.5 Sv. The combined seasonal range for heat transport is 0.40 PW.

    The Florida Straits seasonal cycle possesses a smooth annual periodicity in contrast with previous studies suggesting a more asymmetric structure. No clear evidence is found to support significant changes in the Florida Straits seasonal cycle at sub-decadal periods. Whilst evidence of wind driven Florida Straits transport variability is seen at sub-seasonal and annual periods, a model run from the 1/4° eddy-permitting ocean model NEMO is used to identify an important contribution from internal oceanic variability at sub-annual and interannual periods. The Ekman transport seasonal cycle possesses less symmetric structure, due in part to different seasonal transport

  8. Exploring changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal variability in the Southeastern U.S.: Stakeholder engagement, observations, and adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel R. Dourte

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The distribution of rainfall has major impacts in agriculture, affecting the soil, hydrology, and plant health in agricultural systems. The goal of this study was to test for recent changes in rainfall intensity and seasonal rainfall variability in the Southeastern U.S. by exploring the data collaboratively with agricultural stakeholders. Daily rainfall records from the Global Historical Climatology Network were used to analyze changes in rain intensity and seasonal rainfall variability. During the last 30 years (1985–2014, there has been a significant change (53% increase in the number of extreme rainfall days (>152.4 mm/day and there have been significant decreases in the number of moderate intensity (12.7–25.4 mm/day and heavy (25.4–76.2 mm/day rainfall days in the Southeastern U.S., when compared to the previous 30-year period (1955–1984. There have also been significant decreases in the return period of months in which greater than half of the monthly total rain occurred in a single day; this is an original, stakeholder-developed rainfall intensity metric. The variability in spring and summer rainfall increased during the last 30 years, but winter and fall showed less variability in seasonal totals in the last 30 years. In agricultural systems, rainfall is one of the leading factors affecting yield variability; so it can be expected that more variable rainfall and more intense rain events could bring new challenges to agricultural production. However, these changes can also present opportunities for producers who are taking measures to adjust management strategies to make their systems more resilient to increased rain intensity and variability.

  9. The seasonal predictability of blocking frequency in two seasonal prediction systems (CMCC, Met-Office) and the associated representation of low-frequency variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Scaife, Adam A.; Bellucci, Alessio; Hermanson, Leon; MacLachlan, Craig; Arribas, Alberto; Materia, Stefano; Borelli, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Low-frequency variability is a fundamental component of the atmospheric circulation. Extratropical teleconnections, the occurrence of blocking and the slow modulation of the jet streams and storm tracks are all different aspects of low-frequency variability. Part of the latter is attributed to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere and is inherently unpredictable. On the other hand, primarily as a response to boundary forcings, tropospheric low-frequency variability includes components that are potentially predictable. Seasonal forecasting faces the difficult task of predicting these components. Particularly referring to the extratropics, the current generation of seasonal forecasting systems seem to be approaching this target by realistically initializing most components of the climate system, using higher resolution and utilizing large ensemble sizes. Two seasonal prediction systems (Met-Office GloSea and CMCC-SPS-v1.5) are analyzed in terms of their representation of different aspects of extratropical low-frequency variability. The current operational Met-Office system achieves unprecedented high scores in predicting the winter-mean phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, corr. 0.74 at 500 hPa) and the Pacific-N. American pattern (PNA, corr. 0.82). The CMCC system, considering its small ensemble size and course resolution, also achieves good scores (0.42 for NAO, 0.51 for PNA). Despite these positive features, both models suffer from biases in low-frequency variance, particularly in the N. Atlantic. Consequently, it is found that their intrinsic variability patterns (sectoral EOFs) differ significantly from the observed, and the known teleconnections are underrepresented. Regarding the representation of N. hemisphere blocking, after bias correction both systems exhibit a realistic climatology of blocking frequency. In this assessment, instantaneous blocking and large-scale persistent blocking events are identified using daily geopotential height fields at

  10. Atmospheric forcing on the seasonal variability of sea level at Cochin, southwest coast of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, K.; Dinesh Kumar, P. K.

    2006-07-01

    The seasonal cycles of some atmospheric parameters at Cochin (southwest coast of India) have been studied with a specific emphasis on the role played by them in forcing the seasonal sea level. Equatorward along-shore wind stress as well as equatorward volume transport by coastal currents along the Indian peninsula could play an important role in the sea level low during the premonsoon and southwest monsoon seasons. During postmonsoon season, along-shore wind stress plays no major role in the high sea level whereas this could be due to the poleward volume transport by the coastal along-shore currents. Atmospheric pressure and river discharge do not seem to influence much the sea level during the southwest monsoon period, even though the river discharge during that period is considerable. The sea level was minimal during the southwest monsoon season, when the river discharge was at its annual maximum. The difference between the seasonal march of observed and pressure corrected sea level (CSL) was not significant for the study region. Harmonic analysis of the climatological data on the various parameters revealed that air temperature is the only parameter with a dominance of the semi-annual over the annual cycle. Cross-shore wind stress indicated strong interannual variability whereas relative density showed strong seasonal variability. The climatological seasonal cycles of CSL at eight other tide gauge stations along the west coast of the Indian subcontinent are also examined, to assess the role of various forcings on the seasonal sea level cycle. The signatures of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon could be seen in some of the parameters (SST, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, along-shore wind stress, relative density and sea level). The signature of ENSO was particularly strong in the case of atmospheric pressure followed by relative density, the variance accounted by the relationship being 47% and 16%, respectively.

  11. The value of using seasonality and meteorological variables to model intra-urban PM2.5 variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olvera Alvarez, Hector A.; Myers, Orrin B.; Weigel, Margaret; Armijos, Rodrigo X.

    2018-06-01

    A yearlong air monitoring campaign was conducted to assess the impact of local temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed on the temporal and spatial variability of PM2.5 in El Paso, Texas. Monitoring was conducted at four sites purposely selected to capture the local traffic variability. Effects of meteorological events on seasonal PM2.5 variability were identified. For instance, in winter low-wind and low-temperature conditions were associated with high PM2.5 events that contributed to elevated seasonal PM2.5 levels. Similarly, in spring, high PM2.5 events were associated with high-wind and low-relative humidity conditions. Correlation coefficients between meteorological variables and PM2.5 fluctuated drastically across seasons. Specifically, it was observed that for most sites correlations between PM2.5 and meteorological variables either changed from positive to negative or dissolved depending on the season. Overall, the results suggest that mixed effects analysis with season and site as fixed factors and meteorological variables as covariates could increase the explanatory value of LUR models for PM2.5.

  12. Seasonal and Non-Seasonal Generalized Pareto Distribution to Estimate Extreme Significant Wave Height in The Banda Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nursamsiah; Nugroho Sugianto, Denny; Suprijanto, Jusup; Munasik; Yulianto, Bambang

    2018-02-01

    The information of extreme wave height return level was required for maritime planning and management. The recommendation methods in analyzing extreme wave were better distributed by Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Seasonal variation was often considered in the extreme wave model. This research aims to identify the best model of GPD by considering a seasonal variation of the extreme wave. By using percentile 95 % as the threshold of extreme significant wave height, the seasonal GPD and non-seasonal GPD fitted. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was applied to identify the goodness of fit of the GPD model. The return value from seasonal and non-seasonal GPD was compared with the definition of return value as criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test result shows that GPD fits data very well both seasonal and non-seasonal model. The seasonal return value gives better information about the wave height characteristics.

  13. Coastal upwelling seasonality and variability of temperature and chlorophyll in a small coastal embayment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter, Ryan K.; Armenta, Kevin J.; Shearer, Brandon; Robbins, Ian; Steinbeck, John

    2018-02-01

    While the seasonality of wind-driven coastal upwelling in eastern boundary upwelling systems has long been established, many studies describe two distinct seasons (upwelling and non-upwelling), a generalized framework that does not capture details relevant to marine ecosystems. In this contribution, we present a more detailed description of the annual cycle and upwelling seasonality for an understudied location along the central California coast. Using both the mean monthly upwelling favorable wind stress and the monthly standard deviation, we define the following seasons (contiguous months) and a transitional period (non-contiguous months): "Winter Storms" season (Dec-Jan-Feb), "Upwelling Transition" period (Mar and Jun), "Peak Upwelling" season (Apr-May), "Upwelling Relaxation" season (Jul-Aug-Sep), and "Winter Transition" season (Oct-Nov). In order to describe the oceanic response to this upwelling wind seasonality, we take advantage of nearly a decade of full water-column measurements of temperature and chlorophyll made using an automated profiling system at the end of the California Polytechnic State University Pier in San Luis Obispo Bay, a small ( 2 km wide near study site) and shallow ( 10 m average bay depth) coastal embayment. Variability and average-year patterns are described inside the bay during the various upwelling seasons. Moreover, the role of the local coastline orientation and topography on bay dynamics is also assessed using long-term measurements collected outside of the bay. The formation of a seasonally variable upwelling shadow system and potential nearshore retention zone is discussed. The observations presented provide a framework on which to study interannual changes to the average-year seasonal cycle, assess the contribution of higher-frequency features to nearshore variability, and better predict dynamically and ecologically important events.

  14. Seasonal and mesoscale variability of oceanic transport of anthropogenic CO2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.-C. Dutay

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Estimates of the ocean's large-scale transport of anthropogenic CO2 are based on one-time hydrographic sections, but the temporal variability of this transport has not been investigated. The aim of this study is to evaluate how the seasonal and mesoscale variability affect data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 transport. To diagnose this variability, we made a global anthropogenic CO2 simulation using an eddy-permitting version of the coupled ocean sea-ice model ORCA-LIM. As for heat transport, the seasonally varying transport of anthropogenic CO2 is largest within 20° of the equator and shows secondary maxima in the subtropics. Ekman transport generally drives most of the seasonal variability, but the contribution of the vertical shear becomes important near the equator and in the Southern Ocean. Mesoscale variabilty contributes to the annual-mean transport of both heat and anthropogenic CO2 with strong poleward transport in the Southern Ocean and equatorward transport in the tropics. This "rectified" eddy transport is largely baroclinic in the tropics and barotropic in the Southern Ocean due to a larger contribution from standing eddies. Our analysis revealed that most previous hydrographic estimates of meridional transport of anthropogenic CO2 are severely biased because they neglect temporal fluctuations due to non-Ekman velocity variations. In each of the three major ocean basins, this bias is largest near the equator and in the high southern latitudes. In the subtropical North Atlantic, where most of the hydrographic-based estimates have been focused, this uncertainty represents up to 20% and 30% of total meridional transport of heat and CO2. Generally though, outside the tropics and Southern Ocean, there are only small variations in meridional transport due to seasonal variations in tracer fields and time variations in eddy transport. For the North Atlantic, eddy variability accounts for up to 10% and 15% of the total transport of

  15. Photosynthetic responses of C3 and C4 species to seasonal water variability and competition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Shuli; Yuan, Zhiyou; Zhang, Yanfang; Liu, Weixing; Zhang, Lei; Huang, Jianhui; Wan, Shiqiang

    2005-11-01

    This study examined the impacts of seasonal water variability and interspecific competition on the photosynthetic characteristics of a C3 (Leymus chinensis) and a C4 (Chloris virgata) grass species. Plants received the same amount of water but in three seasonal patterns, i.e. the one-peak model (more water in the summer than in the spring and autumn), the two-peak model (more water in the spring and autumn than in the summer), and the average model (water evenly distributed over the growing season). The effects of water variability on the photosynthetic characteristics of the C3 and C4 species were dependent on season. There were significant differences in the photosynthetic characteristics of the C4 species in the summer and the C3 species in the autumn among the three water treatments. Interspecific competition exerted negative impacts on the C3 species in August and September but had no effects on the C4 species in any of the four measuring dates. The relative competitive capability of the two species was not altered by water availability. The assimilation rate, the maximum quantum yield of net CO2 assimilation, and the maximum rate of carboxylation of the C3 species were 13-56%, 5-11%, and 11-48% greater, respectively, in a monoculture than in a mixture in August and September. The results demonstrated that the photosynthetic characteristics of the C3 and C4 species were affected by water availability, but the effects varied considerably with season.

  16. Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

    2015-07-13

    September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  17. Seasonal variability of the hydrogen exosphere of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halekas, J. S.

    2017-05-01

    The Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission measures both the upstream solar wind and collisional products from energetic neutral hydrogen atoms that precipitate into the upper atmosphere after their initial formation by charge exchange with exospheric hydrogen. By computing the ratio between the densities of these populations, we derive a robust measurement of the column density of exospheric hydrogen upstream of the Martian bow shock. By comparing with Chamberlain-type model exospheres, we place new constraints on the structure and escape rates of exospheric hydrogen, derived from observations sensitive to a different and potentially complementary column from most scattered sunlight observations. Our observations provide quantitative estimates of the hydrogen exosphere with nearly complete temporal coverage, revealing order of magnitude seasonal changes in column density and a peak slightly after perihelion, approximately at southern summer solstice. The timing of this peak suggests either a lag in the response of the Martian atmosphere to solar inputs or a seasonal effect driven by lower atmosphere dynamics. The high degree of seasonal variability implied by our observations suggests that the Martian atmosphere and the thermal escape of light elements depend sensitively on solar inputs.

  18. Impact of Seasonal Variability in Water, Plant and Soil Nutrient Dynamics in Agroecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelak, N. F., III; Revelli, R.; Porporato, A. M.

    2017-12-01

    Agroecosystems cover a significant fraction of the Earth's surface, making their water and nutrient cycles a major component of global cycles across spatial and temporal scales. Most agroecosystems experience seasonality via variations in precipitation, temperature, and radiation, in addition to human activities which also occur seasonally, such as fertilization, irrigation, and harvesting. These seasonal drivers interact with the system in complex ways which are often poorly characterized. Crop models, which are widely used for research, decision support, and prediction of crop yields, are among the best tools available to analyze these systems. Though normally constructed as a set of dynamical equations forced by hydroclimatic variability, they are not often analyzed using dynamical systems theory and methods from stochastic ecohydrology. With the goal of developing this viewpoint and thus elucidating the roles of key feedbacks and forcings on system stability and on optimal fertilization and irrigation strategies, we develop a minimal dynamical system which contains the key components of a crop model, coupled to a carbon and nitrogen cycling model, driven by seasonal fluctuations in water and nutrient availability, temperature, and radiation. External drivers include seasonally varying climatic conditions and random rainfall forcing, irrigation and fertilization as well as harvesting. The model is used to analyze the magnitudes and interactions of the effects of seasonality on carbon and nutrient cycles, crop productivity, nutrient export of agroecosystems, and optimal management strategies with reference to productivity, sustainability and profitability. The impact of likely future climate scenarios on these systems is also discussed.

  19. Pyrosequencing of bacterial symbionts within Axinella corrugata sponges: diversity and seasonal variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James R White

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Marine sponge species are of significant interest to many scientific fields including marine ecology, conservation biology, genetics, host-microbe symbiosis and pharmacology. One of the most intriguing aspects of the sponge "holobiont" system is the unique physiology, interaction with microbes from the marine environment and the development of a complex commensal microbial community. However, intraspecific variability and temporal stability of sponge-associated bacterial symbionts remain relatively unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We have characterized the bacterial symbiont community biodiversity of seven different individuals of the Caribbean reef sponge Axinella corrugata, from two different Florida reef locations during variable seasons using multiplex 454 pyrosequencing of 16 S rRNA amplicons. Over 265,512 high-quality 16 S rRNA sequences were generated and analyzed. Utilizing versatile bioinformatics methods and analytical software such as the QIIME and CloVR packages, we have identified 9,444 distinct bacterial operational taxonomic units (OTUs. Approximately 65,550 rRNA sequences (24% could not be matched to bacteria at the class level, and may therefore represent novel taxa. Differentially abundant classes between seasonal Axinella communities included Gammaproteobacteria, Flavobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, Cyanobacteria, Acidobacter and Nitrospira. Comparisons with a proximal outgroup sponge species (Amphimedon compressa, and the growing sponge symbiont literature, indicate that this study has identified approximately 330 A. corrugata-specific symbiotic OTUs, many of which are related to the sulfur-oxidizing Ectothiorhodospiraceae. This family appeared exclusively within A. corrugata, comprising >34.5% of all sequenced amplicons. Other A. corrugata symbionts such as Deltaproteobacteria, Bdellovibrio, and Thiocystis among many others are described. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Slight shifts in several bacterial taxa

  20. Historical and future seasonal rainfall variability in Nusa Tenggara Barat Province, Indonesia: Implications for the agriculture and water sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi G.C. Kirono

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts are most likely to be felt by resource-dependent communities, and consequently locally-relevant data are necessary to inform livelihood adaptation planning. This paper presents information for historical and future seasonal rainfall variability in Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB Province, Indonesia, where rural livelihoods are highly vulnerable to current climate variability and future change. Historical rainfall variability is investigated using observational data from two stations located on the islands of Lombok and Sumbawa. Future rainfall is examined using an ensemble of six downscaled climate model simulations at a spatial resolution of 14 km for 1971–2100, applying the IPCC SRES-A2 ‘Business as Usual’ emissions scenario, and the six original global climate models (GCMs. Analyses of the observed seasonal rainfall data highlight cyclical variability and long-term declines. The observed periodicities are of about 2–4, 5, 8, 11, and 40–50 years. Furthermore, dry season rainfall is significantly correlated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, while wet season rainfall is weakly correlated with ENSO. The simulated rainfall data reproduce the observed seasonal cycle very well, but overestimate the magnitude of rainfall and underestimate inter-annual rainfall variability. The models also show that the observed rainfall periodicities will continue throughout the 21st century. The models project that rainfall will decline, although with wide ranges of uncertainty, depending on season and location. Crop water demand estimates show that the projected changes will potentially impact the first growing period for rice during November–March. Rainfall may also be insufficient to meet water demand for many crops in the second growing period of March–June, when high value commodities such as chillies and tobacco are produced. The results reinforce the importance to consider all uncertainties when utilizing climate

  1. On the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics in a general circulation model and observational data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    May, W.; Bengtsson, L.

    1994-01-01

    There are various phenomena on different spatial and temporal scales contributing to the intra-seasonal variability within the extratropics. One may notice higher-frequency baroclinic disturbances affecting the day-to-day variability of the atmosphere. But one finds also low-frequency fluctuations on a typical time scale of a few weeks. Blocking anticyclones are probably the most prominent example of such features. These fluctuations on different scales, however, are influencing each other, in particular the temporal evolution and spatial distribution. There has been observational work on various phenomena contributing to the intra-seasonal variability for a long time. In the last decade or so, however, with the increasing importance of General Circulation Models there have been some studies dealing with the intra-seasonal variability as simulated by these models

  2. Drivers of Seasonal Variability in Marine Boundary Layer Aerosol Number Concentration Investigated Using a Steady State Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohrmann, Johannes; Wood, Robert; McGibbon, Jeremy; Eastman, Ryan; Luke, Edward

    2018-01-01

    Marine boundary layer (MBL) aerosol particles affect the climate through their interaction with MBL clouds. Although both MBL clouds and aerosol particles have pronounced seasonal cycles, the factors controlling seasonal variability of MBL aerosol particle concentration are not well constrained. In this paper an aerosol budget is constructed representing the effects of wet deposition, free-tropospheric entrainment, primary surface sources, and advection on the MBL accumulation mode aerosol number concentration (Na). These terms are then parameterized, and by assuming that on seasonal time scales Na is in steady state, the budget equation is rearranged to form a diagnostic equation for Na based on observable variables. Using data primarily collected in the subtropical northeast Pacific during the MAGIC campaign (Marine ARM (Atmospheric Radiation Measurement) GPCI (GCSS Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison) Investigation of Clouds), estimates of both mean summer and winter Na concentrations are made using the simplified steady state model and seasonal mean observed variables. These are found to match well with the observed Na. To attribute the modeled difference between summer and winter aerosol concentrations to individual observed variables (e.g., precipitation rate and free-tropospheric aerosol number concentration), a local sensitivity analysis is combined with the seasonal difference in observed variables. This analysis shows that despite wintertime precipitation frequency being lower than summer, the higher winter precipitation rate accounted for approximately 60% of the modeled seasonal difference in Na, which emphasizes the importance of marine stratocumulus precipitation in determining MBL aerosol concentrations on longer time scales.

  3. Seasonal temperature variability and emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases: a population-based cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Shengzhi; Laden, Francine; Hart, Jaime E; Qiu, Hong; Wang, Yan; Wong, Chit Ming; Lee, Ruby Siu-Yin; Tian, Linwei

    2018-04-05

    Climate change increases global mean temperature and changes short-term (eg, diurnal) and long-term (eg, intraseasonal) temperature variability. Numerous studies have shown that mean temperature and short-term temperature variability are both associated with increased respiratory morbidity or mortality. However, data on the impact of long-term temperature variability are sparse. We aimed to assess the association of intraseasonal temperature variability with respiratory disease hospitalisations among elders. We ascertained the first occurrence of emergency hospital admissions for respiratory diseases in a prospective Chinese elderly cohort of 66 820 older people (≥65 years) with 10-13 years of follow-up. We used an ordinary kriging method based on 22 weather monitoring stations in Hong Kong to spatially interpolate daily ambient temperature for each participant's residential address. Seasonal temperature variability was defined as the SD of daily mean summer (June-August) or winter (December-February) temperatures. We applied Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying exposure of seasonal temperature variability to respiratory admissions. During the follow-up time, we ascertained 12 689 cases of incident respiratory diseases, of which 6672 were pneumonia and 3075 were COPD. The HRs per 1°C increase in wintertime temperature variability were 1.20 (95% CI 1.08 to 1.32), 1.15 (1.01 to 1.31) and 1.41 (1.15 to 1.71) for total respiratory diseases, pneumonia and COPD, respectively. The associations were not statistically significant for summertime temperature variability. Wintertime temperature variability was associated with higher risk of incident respiratory diseases. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  4. Seasonal Evolution and Interannual Variability of the Local Solar Energy Absorbed by the Arctic Sea Ice-Ocean System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perovich, Donald K.; Nghiem, Son V.; Markus, Thorsten; Schwieger, Axel

    2007-01-01

    The melt season of the Arctic sea ice cover is greatly affected by the partitioning of the incident solar radiation between reflection to the atmosphere and absorption in the ice and ocean. This partitioning exhibits a strong seasonal cycle and significant interannual variability. Data in the period 1998, 2000-2004 were analyzed in this study. Observations made during the 1997-1998 SHEBA (Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) field experiment showed a strong seasonal dependence of the partitioning, dominated by a five-phase albedo evolution. QuikSCAT scatterometer data from the SHEBA region in 1999-2004 were used to further investigate solar partitioning in summer. The time series of scatterometer data were used to determine the onset of melt and the beginning of freezeup. This information was combined with SSM/I-derived ice concentration, TOVS-based estimates of incident solar irradiance, and SHEBA results to estimate the amount of solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system for these years. The average total solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system from April through September was 900 MJ m(sup -2). There was considerable interannual variability, with a range of 826 to 1044 MJ m(sup -2). The total amount of solar energy absorbed by the ice and ocean was strongly related to the date of melt onset, but only weakly related to the total duration of the melt season or the onset of freezeup. The timing of melt onset is significant because the incident solar energy is large and a change at this time propagates through the entire melt season, affecting the albedo every day throughout melt and freezeup.

  5. Observed seasonal variability of barrier layer in the Bay of Bengal

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Pankajakshan, T.; Muraleedharan, P.M.; Rao, R.R.; Somayajulu, Y.K.; Reddy, G.V.; Revichandran, C.

    The observed formation of Barrier Layer (BL) and the seasonal variability of BL thickness (BLT) in the Bay of Bengal are examined utilizing the most comprehensive data set. Thick BL (~50m) first appears in the coastal region of the northeastern bay...

  6. Seasonal changes in environmental variables, biomass, production and nutrient contents in two contrasting tropical intertidal seagrass beds in South Sulawesi, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erftemeijer, Paul L A; Herman, Peter M J

    1994-09-01

    Seasonal dynamics were studied by monthly monitoring of biological and environmental variables in permanent quadrats in two contrasting intertidal seagrass beds in South Sulawesi, Indonesia, from February 1991 to January 1992. Datasets were analysed with canonical correlation analysis for correlations between environmental and biological variables. Considerable variation in biomass, production and plant tissue nutrient contents in a monospecific seagrass bed of Enhalus acoroides, growing on a coastal terrigenous mudbank (Gusung Tallang), was assumed to be related to riverine influences of the nearby Tallo River. The variation in seagrass variables at this site could, however, not be significantly correlated to seasonal patterns in rainfall, salinity, tides, nutrient availability, water motion or turbidity. A seasonal cycle in biomass, production and nutrient contents in a mixed seagrass bed of Thalassia hemprichii and E. acoroides, growing on carbonate sand on the reef flat of an offshore coral island (Barang Lompo), was found to be largely determined by tidal exposure and water motion. Exposure of the intertidal seagrass bed during hours of low water during spring tides showed a gradual shift from exposure during the night (January-June) to exposure during daylight (July-December). Daylight exposure resulted in a significant loss of above-ground plant biomass through desiccation and 'burning' of leaves. The observed seasonal dynamics of the seagrass bed on reef sediment contrast with reports from the Caribbean, where the effect of tidal exposure on comparable shallow-water seagrass communities is relatively insignificant due to a small tidal amplitude.

  7. Further influence of the eastern boundary on the seasonal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26N

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baehr, Johanna; Schmidt, Christian

    2016-04-01

    The seasonal cycle of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at 26.5 N has been shown to arise predominantly from sub-surface density variations at the Eastern boundary. Here, we suggest that these sub-surface density variations have their origin in the seasonal variability of the Canary Current system, in particular the Poleward Undercurrent (PUC). We use a high-resolution ocean model (STORM) for which we show that the seasonal variability resembles observations for both sub-surface density variability and meridional transports. In particular, the STORM model simulation density variations at the eastern boundary show seasonal variations reaching down to well over 1000m, a pattern that most model simulations systematically underestimate. We find that positive wind stress curl anomalies in late summer and already within one degree off the eastern boundary result -through water column stretching- in strong transport anomlies in PUC in fall, coherent down to 1000m depth. Simultaneously with a westward propagation of these transport anomalies, we find in winter a weak PUC between 200 m and 500m, and southward transports between 600m and 1300m. This variability is in agreement with the observationally-based suggestion of a seasonal reversal of the meridional transports at intermediate depths. Our findings extend earlier studies which suggested that the seasonal variability at of the meridional transports across 26N is created by changes in the basin-wide thermocline through wind-driven upwelling at the eastern boundary analyzing wind stress curl anomalies 2 degrees off the eastern boundary. Our results suggest that the investigation of AMOC variability and particular its seasonal cycle modulations require the analysis of boundary wind stress curl and the upper ocean transports within 1 degree off the eastern boundary. These findings also implicate that without high-resolution coverage of the eastern boundary, coarser model simulation might not fully

  8. Seasonality and Interannual Variability of Carbon Uptake and Respiration in a California Oak Savanna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, S.; Baldocchi, D.; Xu, L.

    2005-12-01

    Estimating terrestrial carbon sink with large-scale modeling research requires understanding the physiological and ecological processes associated with the carbon uptake and respiration of ecosystems and their variability in seasons and years. This study was conducted in an oak/grass savanna ecosystem in California, USA. The savanna ecosystem consists of blue oak trees ( Quercus douglasii) in the overstory and annual C3 grasses in the understory. Fluxes of CO2 were measured above the canopy (overstory) and the grasses (understory) from 2001 to 2005 with two eddy covariance systems. Under typical Mediterranean Climate, net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), ecosystem respiration (Reco), and gross primary production (GPP) in this savanna ecosystem had a distinctive dry-wet seasonal pattern. Leaf area index, leaf nitrogen concentration, and leaf carbon stable isotope discrimination reflected the responses of leaf to the seasonality and interannual variability. Light- use efficiency, the ratio of GPP to absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (aPAR), was not consistent within a year or from year to year, indicating that photosynthesis process was constrained with low temperature during the beginning of the wet season and limited by precipitation during the summer drought. Annual NEE, Reco, and GPP above the canopy varied significantly between years, varying from -108 - 133 gC m-2, 780 - 988 gC m-2, and 646 - 963 gC m-2, respectively. The difference of interannual Reco was 1.2 times of that of interannual GPP. There was a tight relationship between annual NEE and the precipitation during the period with daily mean temperature varying between 10 - 20°C, equivalent to precipitation during March and April. The longer the period lasted, the higher carbon uptake occurred. Estimated annual NEE from 1949 - 2005 in the savanna ecosystem varied between ~-400 - 200 gC m-2.

  9. Weather variability influences color and phenolic content of pigmented baby leaf lettuces throughout the season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marin, Alicia; Ferreres, Federico; Barberá, Gonzalo G; Gil, María I

    2015-02-18

    The lack of consistency in homogeneous color throughout the season of pigmented baby leaf lettuce is a problem for growers because of the rejection of the product and consequently the economic loss. Changes in color as well as individual and total phenolic composition and content as a response to the climatic variables were studied following the analysis of three pigmented baby leaf lettuces over 16 consecutive weeks from February to May, which corresponded to the most important production season in winter in Europe. Color and phenolic content were significantly (P ≤ 0.001) affected by cultivar, harvest week, and climatic variables that occurred in the last week before harvest. Radiation and temperature showed positive correlations with the content of phenolic acids and flavonoids that increased in all three cultivars as the season progressed. Cyanidin-3-O-(6''-O-malonyl)-glucoside content showed positive correlations with temperature and radiation but only in Batavia cultivars whereas in red oak leaf the correlation was with cold temperatures. Regarding hue angle, a positive correlation was shown with the number of hours at temperatures lower than 7 °C. A relationship between hue angle and the content of anthocyanins was not possible to establish. These results suggest that the colorimetric measurement of color cannot be used as a good indicator of anthocyanin accumulation because other pigments such as chlorophylls and carotenoids may contribute as well to the leaf color of pigmented lettuce. This study provides information about the impact of genotype and environment interactions on the biosynthesis of phenolic compounds to explain the variability in the leaf color and product appearance.

  10. Seasonal variability in clinical care of COPD outpatients: results from the Andalusian COPD audit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    López-Campos JL

    2017-03-01

    , astronomical seasons in the Northern Hemisphere were used as reference. Bivariate associations between the different COPD guidelines and the clinical practice changes over the seasons were explored by using binomial multivariate logistic regression analysis with age, sex, Charlson comorbidity index, type of hospital, and COPD severity by forced expiratory volume in 1 second as covariates, and were expressed as odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs.Results: The Andalusian COPD audit included 621 clinical records from 9 hospitals. After adjusting for covariates, only inhaler device satisfaction evaluation was found to significantly differ according to the seasons with an increase in winter (OR, 3.460; 95% CI, 1.469–8.151, spring (OR, 4.215; 95% CI, 1.814–9.793, and summer (OR, 3.371; 95% CI, 1.391–8.169 compared to that in autumn. The rest of the observed differences were not significant after adjusting for covariates. However, compliance with evaluating inhaler satisfaction was low.Conclusion: The various aspects of clinical practice for COPD care were found to be quite homogeneous throughout the year for the variables evaluated. Inhaler satisfaction evaluation, however, presented some significant variation during the year. Inhaler device satisfaction should be evaluated during all clinical visits throughout the year for improved COPD management. Keywords: COPD, seasons, clinical practice, quality of care

  11. Seasonal variability in bio-optical properties along the coastal waters off Cochin

    KAUST Repository

    Vishnu, P.S.; Shaju, S.S.; Tiwari, Surya Prakash; Menon, Nandini; Nashad, M.; Joseph, C. Ajith; Raman, Mini; Hatha, Mohamed; Prabhakaran, M.P.; Mohandas, A.

    2017-01-01

    Strong seasonal upwelling, downwelling, changes in current patterns and the volume of freshwater discharge from Cochin Estuary defines the coastal waters off Cochin. These coastal waters were investigated through monthly sampling efforts during March 2015 to February 2016 to study the seasonal and spatial variability in bio-optical properties for the four different seasons mainly Spring Inter Monsoon (SIM), South West Monsoon (SWM), Fall Inter Monsoon (FIM) and Winter Monsoon (WM). The Barmouth region is the meeting place where freshwater from Cochin Estuary directly enters to the sea through a single narrow outlet, was dominated by highly turbid waters during the entire period of study. Among the four seasons, chlorophyll a (Chl_a) concentration showed a high value during SWM, ranged from 2.90 to 11.66 mg m−3 with an average value of 6.56 ± 3.51 mg m−3. During SIM the distribution of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is controlled by decomposition of phytoplankton biomass and the river discharge, whereas during SWM the temporal distribution of CDOM is controlled only by river discharge. The highest value for CDOM spectral slope (SCDOM) was observed during SWM, ranged from 0.013 to 0.020 nm−1 with an average value of 0.015 ± 0.002 nm−1. During WM, the high SCDOM with lower aCDOM (443) indicates the photo-degradation affects the absorption characteristics of CDOM. The observed nonlinearity between Chl_a and the ratio of phytoplankton absorption aph (443)/aph (670) indicating the packaging effect and changes in the intercellular composition of pigments. During the study period, aph (670) was strongly correlated with Chl_a than aph (443), which explains the accessory pigment absorption dominating more than Chl_a in the blue part of the spectrum. Similarly, the results obtained from seasonal bio-optical data indicating that Chl_a significantly contributes light attenuation of the water column during SIM, whereas detritus (ad

  12. Seasonal variability in bio-optical properties along the coastal waters off Cochin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vishnu, P. S.; Shaju, S. S.; Tiwari, S. P.; Menon, Nandini; Nashad, M.; Joseph, C. Ajith; Raman, Mini; Hatha, Mohamed; Prabhakaran, M. P.; Mohandas, A.

    2018-04-01

    Strong seasonal upwelling, downwelling, changes in current patterns and the volume of freshwater discharge from Cochin Estuary defines the coastal waters off Cochin. These coastal waters were investigated through monthly sampling efforts during March 2015 to February 2016 to study the seasonal and spatial variability in bio-optical properties for the four different seasons mainly Spring Inter Monsoon (SIM), South West Monsoon (SWM), Fall Inter Monsoon (FIM) and Winter Monsoon (WM). The Barmouth region is the meeting place where freshwater from Cochin Estuary directly enters to the sea through a single narrow outlet, was dominated by highly turbid waters during the entire period of study. Among the four seasons, chlorophyll a (Chl_a) concentration showed a high value during SWM, ranged from 2.90 to 11.66 mg m-3 with an average value of 6.56 ± 3.51 mg m-3. During SIM the distribution of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is controlled by decomposition of phytoplankton biomass and the river discharge, whereas during SWM the temporal distribution of CDOM is controlled only by river discharge. The highest value for CDOM spectral slope (SCDOM) was observed during SWM, ranged from 0.013 to 0.020 nm-1 with an average value of 0.015 ± 0.002 nm-1. During WM, the high SCDOM with lower aCDOM (443) indicates the photo-degradation affects the absorption characteristics of CDOM. The observed nonlinearity between Chl_a and the ratio of phytoplankton absorption aph (443)/aph (670) indicating the packaging effect and changes in the intercellular composition of pigments. During the study period, aph (670) was strongly correlated with Chl_a than aph (443), which explains the accessory pigment absorption dominating more than Chl_a in the blue part of the spectrum. Similarly, the results obtained from seasonal bio-optical data indicating that Chl_a significantly contributes light attenuation of the water column during SIM, whereas detritus (ad) significantly contributes light

  13. Seasonal variability in bio-optical properties along the coastal waters off Cochin

    KAUST Repository

    Vishnu, P.S.

    2017-12-15

    Strong seasonal upwelling, downwelling, changes in current patterns and the volume of freshwater discharge from Cochin Estuary defines the coastal waters off Cochin. These coastal waters were investigated through monthly sampling efforts during March 2015 to February 2016 to study the seasonal and spatial variability in bio-optical properties for the four different seasons mainly Spring Inter Monsoon (SIM), South West Monsoon (SWM), Fall Inter Monsoon (FIM) and Winter Monsoon (WM). The Barmouth region is the meeting place where freshwater from Cochin Estuary directly enters to the sea through a single narrow outlet, was dominated by highly turbid waters during the entire period of study. Among the four seasons, chlorophyll a (Chl_a) concentration showed a high value during SWM, ranged from 2.90 to 11.66 mg m−3 with an average value of 6.56 ± 3.51 mg m−3. During SIM the distribution of coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) is controlled by decomposition of phytoplankton biomass and the river discharge, whereas during SWM the temporal distribution of CDOM is controlled only by river discharge. The highest value for CDOM spectral slope (SCDOM) was observed during SWM, ranged from 0.013 to 0.020 nm−1 with an average value of 0.015 ± 0.002 nm−1. During WM, the high SCDOM with lower aCDOM (443) indicates the photo-degradation affects the absorption characteristics of CDOM. The observed nonlinearity between Chl_a and the ratio of phytoplankton absorption aph (443)/aph (670) indicating the packaging effect and changes in the intercellular composition of pigments. During the study period, aph (670) was strongly correlated with Chl_a than aph (443), which explains the accessory pigment absorption dominating more than Chl_a in the blue part of the spectrum. Similarly, the results obtained from seasonal bio-optical data indicating that Chl_a significantly contributes light attenuation of the water column during SIM, whereas detritus (ad

  14. Effect of Weather Variability on Seasonal Influenza Among Different Age Groups in Queensland, Australia: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaodong; Mengersen, Kerrie; Milinovich, Gabriel; Hu, Wenbiao

    2017-06-01

    The effects of weather variability on seasonal influenza among different age groups remain unclear. The comparative study aims to explore the differences in the associations between weather variability and seasonal influenza, and growth rates of seasonal influenza epidemics among different age groups in Queensland, Australia. Three Bayesian spatiotemporal conditional autoregressive models were fitted at the postal area level to quantify the relationships between seasonal influenza and monthly minimum temperature (MIT), monthly vapor pressure, school calendar pattern, and Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage for 3 age groups (Weather variability appears to be more influential on seasonal influenza transmission in younger (0-14) age groups. The growth rates of influenza at postal area level were relatively small for older (≥65) age groups in Queensland, Australia. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. The Variability of Atmospheric Deuterium Brightness at Mars: Evidence for Seasonal Dependence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayyasi, Majd; Clarke, John; Bhattacharyya, Dolon; Deighan, Justin; Jain, Sonal; Chaffin, Michael; Thiemann, Edward; Schneider, Nick; Jakosky, Bruce

    2017-10-01

    The enhanced ratio of deuterium to hydrogen on Mars has been widely interpreted as indicating the loss of a large column of water into space, and the hydrogen content of the upper atmosphere is now known to be highly variable. The variation in the properties of both deuterium and hydrogen in the upper atmosphere of Mars is indicative of the dynamical processes that produce these species and propagate them to altitudes where they can escape the planet. Understanding the seasonal variability of D is key to understanding the variability of the escape rate of water from Mars. Data from a 15 month observing campaign, made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph high-resolution echelle channel, are used to determine the brightness of deuterium as observed at the limb of Mars. The D emission is highly variable, with a peak in brightness just after southern summer solstice. The trends of D brightness are examined against extrinsic as well as intrinsic sources. It is found that the fluctuations in deuterium brightness in the upper atmosphere of Mars (up to 400 km), corrected for periodic solar variations, vary on timescales that are similar to those of water vapor fluctuations lower in the atmosphere (20-80 km). The observed variability in deuterium may be attributed to seasonal factors such as regional dust storm activity and subsequent circulation lower in the atmosphere.

  16. Dynamic and Regression Modeling of Ocean Variability in the Tide-Gauge Record at Seasonal and Longer Periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Emma M.; Ponte, Rui M.; Davis, James L.

    2007-01-01

    Comparison of monthly mean tide-gauge time series to corresponding model time series based on a static inverted barometer (IB) for pressure-driven fluctuations and a ocean general circulation model (OM) reveals that the combined model successfully reproduces seasonal and interannual changes in relative sea level at many stations. Removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge record produces residual time series with a mean global variance reduction of 53%. The OM is mis-scaled for certain regions, and 68% of the residual time series contain a significant seasonal variability after removal of the OM and IB from the tide-gauge data. Including OM admittance parameters and seasonal coefficients in a regression model for each station, with IB also removed, produces residual time series with mean global variance reduction of 71%. Examination of the regional improvement in variance caused by scaling the OM, including seasonal terms, or both, indicates weakness in the model at predicting sea-level variation for constricted ocean regions. The model is particularly effective at reproducing sea-level variation for stations in North America, Europe, and Japan. The RMS residual for many stations in these areas is 25-35 mm. The production of "cleaner" tide-gauge time series, with oceanographic variability removed, is important for future analysis of nonsecular and regionally differing sea-level variations. Understanding the ocean model's strengths and weaknesses will allow for future improvements of the model.

  17. Seasonal variability in irradiance affects herbicide toxicity to the marine flagellate Dunaliella tertiolecta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sascha eSjollema

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR and Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR of the solar spectrum affect microalgae directly and modify the toxicity of phytotoxic compounds present in water. As a consequence seasonal variable PAR and UVR levels are likely to modulate the toxic pressure of contaminants in the field. Therefore the present study aimed to determine the toxicity of two model contaminants, the herbicides diuron and Irgarol®1051, under simulated irradiance conditions mimicking different seasons. Irradiance conditions of spring and autumn were simulated with a set of Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs. Toxicity of both herbicides was measured individually and in a mixture by determining the inhibition of photosystem II efficiency (ΦPSII of the marine flagellate Dunaliella teriolecta using Pulse Amplitude Modulation (PAM fluorometry. Toxicity of the single herbicides was higher under simulated spring irradiance than under autumn irradiance and this effect was also observed for mixtures of the herbicides. This irradiance dependent toxicity indicates that herbicide toxicity in the field is seasonally variable. Consequently toxicity tests under standard light conditions may overestimate or underestimate the toxic effect of phytotoxic compounds.

  18. Seasonal variability of oxidative stress markers in city bus drivers. Part I. Oxidative damage to DNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossner, Pavel; Svecova, Vlasta; Milcova, Alena; Lnenickova, Zdena; Solansky, Ivo; Sram, Radim J

    2008-07-03

    We investigated the seasonal variability of 8-oxodeoxyguanosine (8-oxodG), a marker of oxidative damage to DNA, in urine of 50 bus drivers and 50 controls in Prague, Czech Republic, in three seasons with different levels of air pollution: winter 2005, summer 2006 and winter 2006. The exposure to environmental pollutants (carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, c-PAHs, particulate matter (PM), and volatile organic compounds (VOC)) was monitored by personal and/or stationary monitors. For the analysis of 8-oxodG levels, the ELISA technique was used. Bus drivers were exposed to significantly higher levels of c-PAHs in winter 2006, while in the other two seasons the exposure of controls was unexpectedly higher than that of bus drivers. We did not see any difference in VOC exposure between both groups in summer 2006 and in winter 2006; VOC were not monitored in winter 2005. 8-OxodG levels were higher in bus drivers than in controls in all seasons. The median levels of 8-oxodG (nmol/mmol creatinine) in bus drivers vs. controls were as follows: winter 2005: 7.79 vs. 6.12 (p=0.01); summer 2006: 6.91 vs. 5.11 (p<0.01); winter 2006: 5.73 vs. 3.94 (p<0.001). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified PM2.5 and PM10 levels, measured by stationary monitors during a 3-day period before urine collection, as the only factors significantly affecting 8-oxodG levels, while the levels of c-PAHs had no significant influence.

  19. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M [Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GIScCE), South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD (United States); De Beurs, K M [Department of Geography, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA (United States); Akhmadieva, Z K [Kazakhstan Scientific Research Institute of Ecology and Climate, Ministry of Environment Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana (Kazakhstan); Groisman, P Y, E-mail: Geoffrey.Henebry@sdstate.ed [National Climatic Data Center, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Asheville, NC (United States)

    2009-10-15

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  20. Reanalysis data underestimate significant changes in growing season weather in Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, C K; Henebry, G M; De Beurs, K M; Akhmadieva, Z K; Groisman, P Y

    2009-01-01

    We present time series analyses of recently compiled climate station data which allowed us to assess contemporary trends in growing season weather across Kazakhstan as drivers of a significant decline in growing season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) recently observed by satellite remote sensing across much of Central Asia. We used a robust nonparametric time series analysis method, the seasonal Kendall trend test to analyze georeferenced time series of accumulated growing season precipitation (APPT) and accumulated growing degree-days (AGDD). Over the period 2000-2006 we found geographically extensive, statistically significant (p<0.05) decreasing trends in APPT and increasing trends in AGDD. The temperature trends were especially apparent during the warm season and coincided with precipitation decreases in northwest Kazakhstan, indicating that pervasive drought conditions and higher temperature excursions were the likely drivers of NDVI declines observed in Kazakhstan over the same period. We also compared the APPT and AGDD trends at individual stations with results from trend analysis of gridded monthly precipitation data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) Full Data Reanalysis v4 and gridded daily near surface air temperature from the National Centers for Climate Prediction Reanalysis v2 (NCEP R2). We found substantial deviation between the station and the reanalysis trends, suggesting that GPCC and NCEP data substantially underestimate the geographic extent of recent drought in Kazakhstan. Although gridded climate products offer many advantages in ease of use and complete coverage, our findings for Kazakhstan should serve as a caveat against uncritical use of GPCC and NCEP reanalysis data and demonstrate the importance of compiling and standardizing daily climate data from data-sparse regions like Central Asia.

  1. Long-Term Trend and Seasonal Variability of Horizontal Visibility in Nigerian Troposphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mukhtar Balarabe

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available A study of the long-term variability; trend and characteristics of visibility in four zones of Nigeria was carried out. Visibility and other meteorological data from NOAA-NCDC and aerosol index data over Nigeria during 1984–2013 are analyzed using time series and  simple regression model. There are significant decreasing trends for every region and season during the 30-years period; the fluctuations exhibited nearly similar pattern. The 30-year mean visibilities for the four zones (Sahel; North Central; Southern; and Coastal were 13.8 ± 3.9; 14.3 ± 4.2; 13.6 ± 3.5 and 12.8 ± 3.1 km with decreasing trends at the rates of 0.08; 0.06; 0.02 and 0.02 km/year. In all the zones; visibilities were better in summer while worse in Harmattan (dry season. During summer visibility was best in Sahel and North-central; however; in Harmattan visibility was best in southern and coastal zones. It was best between May and June (17.6; 18.9; 16.6 and 15.1 km with a second peak in September. The 30-year seasonal averages were 16.2 ± 2.1; 16.8 ± 2.4; 15.4 ± 1.8 and 14.0 ± 2.2 km in summer; and 10.2 ± 2.5; 10.9 ± 2.9; 11.0 ± 3.3 and 11.4 ± 3.0 km in Harmattan for the respective zones. Sahel and North Central had the worse visibility reduction during Harmattan compared with Southern and coastal areas. An analysis based on simple regression equation reveals a strong and negative relationship between visibility on one hand; AI; and AOD on the other hand. The analysis also discusses the variability regarding the frequency of occurrence of a dust storm; dust haze; and good visibility over the period of study.

  2. Performance Assessment of Full-Scale Wastewater Treatment Plants Based on Seasonal Variability of Microbial Communities via High-Throughput Sequencing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tang Liu

    Full Text Available Microbial communities of activated sludge (AS play a key role in the performance of wastewater treatment processes. However, seasonal variability of microbial population in varying AS-based processes has been poorly correlated with operation of full-scale wastewater treatment systems (WWTSs. In this paper, significant seasonal variability of AS microbial communities in eight WWTSs located in the city of Guangzhou were revealed in terms of 16S rRNA-based Miseq sequencing. Furthermore, variation redundancy analysis (RDA demonstrated that the microbial community compositions closely correlated with WWTS operation parameters such as temperature, BOD, NH4+-N and TN. Consequently, support vector regression models which reasonably predicted effluent BOD, SS and TN in WWTSs were established based on microbial community compositions. This work provided an alternative tool for rapid assessment on performance of full-scale wastewater treatment plants.

  3. Seasonal and diurnal variability of the meteor flux at high latitudes observed using PFISR

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparks, J. J.; Janches, D.; Nicolls, M. J.; Heinselman, C. J.

    2009-05-01

    We report in this and a companion paper [Fentzke, J.T., Janches, D., Sparks, J.J., 2008. Latitudinal and seasonal variability of the micrometeor input function: A study using model predictions and observations from Arecibo and PFISR. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, this issue, doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2008.07.015] a complete seasonal study of the micrometeor input function (MIF) at high latitudes using meteor head-echo radar observations performed with the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar (PFISR). This flux is responsible for a number of atmospheric phenomena; for example, it could be the source of meteoric smoke that is thought to act as condensation nuclei in the formation of ice particles in the polar mesosphere. The observations presented here were performed for full 24-h periods near the summer and winter solstices and spring and autumn equinoxes, times at which the seasonal variability of the MIF is predicted to be large at high latitudes [Janches, D., Heinselman, C.J., Chau, J.L., Chandran, A., Woodman, R., 2006. Modeling of the micrometeor input function in the upper atmosphere observed by High Power and Large Aperture Radars, JGR, 11, A07317, doi:10.1029/2006JA011628]. Precise altitude and radar instantaneous line-of-sight (radial) Doppler velocity information are obtained for each of the hundreds of events detected every day. We show that meteor rates, altitude, and radial velocity distributions have a large seasonal dependence. This seasonal variability can be explained by a change in the relative location of the meteoroid sources with respect to the observer. Our results show that the meteor flux into the upper atmosphere is strongly anisotropic and its characteristics must be accounted for when including this flux into models attempting to explain related aeronomical phenomena. In addition, the measured acceleration and received signal strength distribution do not seem to depend on season; which may suggest that these observed

  4. Is there a clinically significant seasonal component to hospital admissions for atrial fibrillation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moineddin Rahim

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation is a common cardiac dysrhythmia, particularly in the elderly. Recent studies have indicated a statistically significant seasonal component to atrial fibrillation hospitalizations. Methods We conducted a retrospective population cohort study using time series analysis to evaluate seasonal patterns of atrial fibrillation hospitalizations for the province of Ontario for the years 1988 to 2001. Five different series methods were used to analyze the data, including spectral analysis, X11, R-Squared, autocorrelation function and monthly aggregation. Results This study found evidence of weak seasonality, most apparent at aggregate levels including both ages and sexes. There was dramatic increase in hospitalizations for atrial fibrillation over the years studied and an age dependent increase in rates per 100,000. Overall, the magnitude of seasonal difference between peak and trough months is in the order of 1.4 admissions per 100,000 population. The peaks for hospitalizations were predominantly in April, and the troughs in August. Conclusions Our study confirms statistical evidence of seasonality for atrial fibrillation hospitalizations. This effect is small in absolute terms and likely not significant for policy or etiological research purposes.

  5. Seasonal to Interannual Variability of Satellite-Based Precipitation Estimates in the Pacific Ocean Associated with ENSO from 1998 to 2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xueyan Hou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Based on a widely used satellite precipitation product (TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B43, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation over the Pacific Ocean for 1998–2014 at seasonal and interannual timescales, separately, using the conventional empirical orthogonal function (EOF and investigated the seasonal patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO cycles using season-reliant empirical orthogonal function (SEOF analysis. Lagged correlation analysis was also applied to derive the lead/lag correlations of the first two SEOF modes for precipitation with Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and two types of El Niño, i.e., central Pacific (CP El Niño and eastern Pacific (EP El Niño. We found that: (1 The first two seasonal EOF modes for precipitation represent the annual cycle of precipitation variations for the Pacific Ocean and the first interannual EOF mode shows the spatiotemporal variability associated with ENSO; (2 The first SEOF mode for precipitation is simultaneously associated with the development of El Niño and most likely coincides with CP El Niño. The second SEOF mode lagged behind ENSO by one year and is associated with post-El Niño years. PDO modulates precipitation variability significantly only when ENSO occurs by strengthening and prolonging the impacts of ENSO; (3 Seasonally evolving patterns of the first two SEOF modes represent the consecutive precipitation patterns associated with the entire development of EP El Niño and the following recovery year. The most significant variation occurs over the tropical Pacific, especially in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ; (4 Dry conditions in the western basin of the warm pool and wet conditions along the ITCZ and SPCZ bands during the mature phase of El Niño are associated with warm sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific, and a subtropical anticyclone dominating

  6. Seasonal and diurnal variability of N{sub 2}O emissions from a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Daelman, Matthijs R.J., E-mail: m.r.j.daelman@tudelft.nl [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Voorthuizen, Ellen M. van [Royal HaskoningDHV, P.O. Box 151, 6500AD Nijmegen (Netherlands); Dongen, Udo G.J.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands); Volcke, Eveline I.P. [Department of Biosystems engineering, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Gent (Belgium); Loosdrecht, Mark C.M. van [Department of Biotechnology, Delft University of Technology, Julianalaan 67, 2628 BC Delft (Netherlands)

    2015-12-01

    During nitrogen removal in conventional activated sludge processes, nitrous oxide can be emitted. With a global warming potential of 298 CO{sub 2}-equivalents it is an important greenhouse gas that affects the sustainability of wastewater treatment. The present study reports nitrous oxide emission data from a 16 month monitoring campaign on a full-scale municipal wastewater treatment. The emission demonstrated a pronounced diurnal and seasonal variability. This variability was compared with the variability of a number of process variables that are commonly available on a municipal wastewater treatment plant. On a seasonal timescale, the occurrence of peaks in the nitrite concentration correlated strongly with the emission. The diurnal trend of the emission coincided with the diurnal trend of the nitrite and nitrate concentrations in the tank, suggesting that suboptimal oxygen concentrations may induce the production of nitrous oxide during both nitrification and denitrification. This study documents an unprecedented dataset that could serve as a reference for further research. - Highlights: • Unique dataset of long-term nitrous oxide emission from activated sludge tanks • Emission exhibited pronounced diurnal variability, superimposed on seasonal trend • Seasonal nitrous oxide emission trend correlated with daily nitrite peaks • Emission’s diurnal trend suggests suboptimal oxygen concentrations as cause.

  7. Effects of seasonal meteorological variables on E. coli persistence in livestock faeces and implications for environmental and human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, David M; Page, Trevor

    2016-11-15

    Agriculture contributes significant volumes of livestock faeces to land. Understanding how faecal microbes respond to shifts in meteorological patterns of contrasting seasons is important in order to gauge how environmental (and human health) risks may alter under a changing climate. The aim of this study was to: (i) quantify the temporal pattern of E. coli growth within dairy faeces post defecation; and (ii) derive E. coli seasonal population change profiles associated with contrasting environmental drivers. Evaluation of the die-off dynamics of E. coli revealed that a treatment mimicking drought and warming conditions significantly enhanced persistence relative to E. coli in faeces that were exposed to field conditions, and that this pattern was consistent across consecutive years. The internal temperature of faeces was important in driving the rate of change in the E. coli population in the immediate period post defecation, with most E. coli activity (as either die-off or growth) occurring at low dry matter content. This study highlighted that the use of seasonal E. coli persistence profiles should be approached with caution when modelling environmental and human health risks given the increased likelihood of atypical seasonal meteorological variables impacting on E. coli growth and die-off.

  8. Seasonal variation in sports participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schüttoff, Ute; Pawlowski, Tim

    2018-02-01

    This study explores indicators describing socio-demographics, sports participation characteristics and motives which are associated with variation in sports participation across seasons. Data were drawn from the German Socio-Economic Panel which contains detailed information on the sports behaviour of adults in Germany. Overall, two different measures of seasonal variation are developed and used as dependent variables in our regression models. The first variable measures the coefficient of (seasonal) variation in sport-related energy expenditure per week. The second variable measures whether activity drops below the threshold as defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). Results suggest that the organisational setting, the intensity and number of sports practised, and the motive for participation are strongly correlated with the variation measures used. For example, both, participation in a sports club and a commercial facility, are associated with reduced seasonal variation and a significantly higher probability of participating at a volume above the WHO threshold across all seasons. These findings give some impetus for policymaking and the planning of sports programmes as well as future research directions.

  9. Seasonal changes in reproductive activity, sperm variables and sperm freezability in Blanca Andaluza bucks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lourdes Gallego-Calvo

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Interest in the preservation of endangered breeds such as the Blanca Andaluza goat, has increased and some steps should be therefore taken to ensure it. The study was designed to determine the seasonal reproductive pattern of Blanca Andaluza bucks, and whether this affects the quality of their semen and its freezability over the year. Seven bucks were used and their body weight, testicular weight, plasma testosterone concentration and fresh sperm quality determined every week. The collected sperm was cryopreserved and stored; it was then thawed and the same sperm quality variables measured every fortnight. High plasma testosterone concentrations were recorded during the summer and autumn, and low concentrations were recorded during winter and spring (p<0.001. No differences were seen between seasons in terms of the percentage of bucks ejaculating, the percentage of active bucks, or ejaculate volume. However, the sperm concentration, the total number of sperm per ejaculate, and the values for most fresh sperm variables were lower during the winter period (at least p<0.05. After freezing-thawing, the quality of winter-collected sperm was better, in some respects, than that of summer-collected sperm (at least p<0.05. These results reveal that Blanca Andaluza bucks show seasonal reproductive activity in terms of their plasma testosterone concentration, but no clear change in their sexual behaviour between seasons was observed. The values of fresh sperm variables also vary over the year, reaching their lowest during winter. However, after freezing-thawing, winter-collected sperm is of overall better quality than sperm collected during the summer.

  10. Seasonal changes in reproductive activity, sperm variables and sperm freezability in Blanca Andaluza bucks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gallego-Calvo, L.; Gatica, M.C.; Santiago-Moreno, J.; Guzmán, J.L.; Zarazaga, L.

    2015-07-01

    Interest in the preservation of endangered breeds such as the Blanca Andaluza goat, has increased and some steps should be therefore taken to ensure it. The study was designed to determine the seasonal reproductive pattern of Blanca Andaluza bucks, and whether this affects the quality of their semen and its freezability over the year. Seven bucks were used and their body weight, testicular weight, plasma testosterone concentration and fresh sperm quality determined every week. The collected sperm was cryopreserved and stored; it was then thawed and the same sperm quality variables measured every fortnight. High plasma testosterone concentrations were recorded during the summer and autumn, and low concentrations were recorded during winter and spring (p<0.001). No differences were seen between seasons in terms of the percentage of bucks ejaculating, the percentage of active bucks, or ejaculate volume. However, the sperm concentration, the total number of sperm per ejaculate, and the values for most fresh sperm variables were lower during the winter period (at least p<0.05). After freezing-thawing, the quality of winter-collected sperm was better, in some respects, than that of summer-collected sperm (at least p<0.05). These results reveal that Blanca Andaluza bucks show seasonal reproductive activity in terms of their plasma testosterone concentration, but no clear change in their sexual behaviour between seasons was observed. The values of fresh sperm variables also vary over the year, reaching their lowest during winter. However, after freezing-thawing, winter-collected sperm is of overall better quality than sperm collected during the summer. (Author)

  11. Seasonal variability of rocky reef fish assemblages: Detecting functional and structural changes due to fishing effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriques, Sofia; Pais, Miguel Pessanha; Costa, Maria José; Cabral, Henrique Nogueira

    2013-05-01

    The present study analyzed the effects of seasonal variation on the stability of fish-based metrics and their capability to detect changes in fish assemblages, which is yet poorly understood despite the general idea that guilds are more resilient to natural variability than species abundances. Three zones subject to different levels of fishing pressure inside the Arrábida Marine Protected Area (MPA) were sampled seasonally. The results showed differences between warm (summer and autumn) and cold (winter and spring) seasons, with the autumn clearly standing out. In general, the values of the metrics density of juveniles, density of invertebrate feeders and density of omnivores increased in warm seasons, which can be attributed to differences in recruitment patterns, spawning migrations and feeding activity among seasons. The density of generalist/opportunistic individuals was sensitive to the effect of fishing, with higher values at zones with the lowest level of protection, while the density of individuals with high commercial value only responded to fishing in the autumn, due to a cumulative result of both juveniles and adults abundances during this season. Overall, this study showed that seasonal variability affects structural and functional features of the fish assemblage and that might influence the detection of changes as a result of anthropogenic pressures. The choice of a specific season, during warm sea conditions after the spawning period (July-October), seems to be more adequate to assess changes on rocky-reef fish assemblages.

  12. NEW SEASON NEW HOPES: OFF-SEASON OPTIMISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oguz Ersan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available While literature on the relation between on-field sports performance and stock returns is ample, there is very limited evidence on off-season stage. Constituting around 3 months, off-seasons do not only occupy a significant part of the year but also represent totally different characteristics than on-seasons. They lack the periodic, unambiguous news events in on-seasons (match results, instead they are associated with highly uncertain transfer news and rumors. We show that this distinction has several impacts on the stock market performances of soccer clubs. Most notably, off-seasons generate substantially higher (excess returns. After controlling for other variables, the estimated effect of off-season periods is as high as 38.75%, annually. In line with several seminal studies, we link this fact to increased optimism and betting behavior through uncertain periods; and periods prior to the start of a new calendar (in our case, new season. For all of the examined 7 clubs (3 from Italy and 4 from Turkey, mean excess returns over the market are positive (negative in off-seasons (on-seasons. On-seasons are associated with increased trading activity due to more frequent news. Stocks of Italian clubs are evidently more volatile through off-seasons while volatility results for the stocks of Turkish clubs are not consistent.

  13. Seasonal variability of surface and column carbon monoxide over the megacity Paris, high-altitude Jungfraujoch and Southern Hemispheric Wollongong stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Té, Yao; Jeseck, Pascal; Franco, Bruno; Mahieu, Emmanuel; Jones, Nicholas; Paton-Walsh, Clare; Griffith, David W. T.; Buchholz, Rebecca R.; Hadji-Lazaro, Juliette; Hurtmans, Daniel; Janssen, Christof

    2016-09-01

    This paper studies the seasonal variation of surface and column CO at three different sites (Paris, Jungfraujoch and Wollongong), with an emphasis on establishing a link between the CO vertical distribution and the nature of CO emission sources. We find the first evidence of a time lag between surface and free tropospheric CO seasonal variations in the Northern Hemisphere. The CO seasonal variability obtained from the total columns and free tropospheric partial columns shows a maximum around March-April and a minimum around September-October in the Northern Hemisphere (Paris and Jungfraujoch). In the Southern Hemisphere (Wollongong) this seasonal variability is shifted by about 6 months. Satellite observations by the IASI-MetOp (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) and MOPITT (Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere) instruments confirm this seasonality. Ground-based FTIR (Fourier transform infrared) measurements provide useful complementary information due to good sensitivity in the boundary layer. In situ surface measurements of CO volume mixing ratios at the Paris and Jungfraujoch sites reveal a time lag of the near-surface seasonal variability of about 2 months with respect to the total column variability at the same sites. The chemical transport model GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System chemical transport model) is employed to interpret our observations. GEOS-Chem sensitivity runs identify the emission sources influencing the seasonal variation of CO. At both Paris and Jungfraujoch, the surface seasonality is mainly driven by anthropogenic emissions, while the total column seasonality is also controlled by air masses transported from distant sources. At Wollongong, where the CO seasonality is mainly affected by biomass burning, no time shift is observed between surface measurements and total column data.

  14. Age and seasonal variability of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in free-ranging East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dietz, Rune; Riget, Frank F.; Sonne, Christian; Letcher, Robert J.; Backus, Sean; Born, Erik W.; Kirkegaard, Maja; Muir, Derek C.G.

    2007-01-01

    Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were analysed in adipose tissue from 92 East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled during 1999-2001. Mean ΣPBDE concentrations were 70 ng/g lipid weight (lw) (range: 22-192 ng/g lw) and showed no relationship with age or sex. Of the 32 analysed PBDE congeners; BDE47, BDE153, BDE99 and BDE100 dominated, and comprised 99.6% of the ΣPBDE concentration. The ΣPBDE concentration had a highly significant correlation with ΣPCB, ΣCHL, dieldrin, HCB and ΣHCH concentrations. We found a seasonal pattern of median ΣPBDE concentration with 1.2 to 1.8 times higher concentrations in March to July than the rest of the year. The seasonal variation also provides a clue to the seasonal exposure, bio-availability, toxic exposure and degradation. We suggest that future geographical PBDE data comparisons may not need corrections for sex or age, but such data sets should be corrected for seasonal variability, using the presented correctional trigonometric regression. - Mean ΣPBDE concentrations of East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were 69.5 ng/g lw (range: 21.7-192 ng/g lw) and showed a seasonal pattern with no relationship with age and sex

  15. Seasonal variability of PM2.5 composition and sources in the Klang Valley urban-industrial environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amil, Norhaniza; Talib Latif, Mohd; Firoz Khan, Md; Mohamad, Maznorizan

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) variability in the Klang Valley urban-industrial environment. In total, 94 daily PM2.5 samples were collected during a 1-year campaign from August 2011 to July 2012. This is the first paper on PM2.5 mass, chemical composition and sources in the tropical environment of Southeast Asia, covering all four seasons (distinguished by the wind flow patterns) including haze events. The samples were analysed for various inorganic components and black carbon (BC). The chemical compositions were statistically analysed and the temporal aerosol pattern (seasonal) was characterised using descriptive analysis, correlation matrices, enrichment factor (EF), stoichiometric analysis and chemical mass closure (CMC). For source apportionment purposes, a combination of positive matrix factorisation (PMF) and multi-linear regression (MLR) was employed. Further, meteorological-gaseous parameters were incorporated into each analysis for improved assessment. In addition, secondary data of total suspended particulate (TSP) and coarse particulate matter (PM10) sampled at the same location and time with this study (collected by Malaysian Meteorological Department) were used for PM ratio assessment. The results showed that PM2.5 mass averaged at 28 ± 18 µg m-3, 2.8-fold higher than the World Health Organisation (WHO) annual guideline. On a daily basis, the PM2.5 mass ranged between 6 and 118 µg m-3 with the daily WHO guideline exceeded 43 % of the time. The north-east (NE) monsoon was the only season with less than 50 % sample exceedance of the daily WHO guideline. On an annual scale, PM2.5 mass correlated positively with temperature (T) and wind speed (WS) but negatively with relative humidity (RH). With the exception of NOx, the gases analysed (CO, NO2, NO and SO2) were found to significantly influence the PM2.5 mass. Seasonal variability unexpectedly showed that rainfall, WS and wind direction (WD) did not significantly correlate

  16. What controls the atmospheric methane seasonal variability over India?

    KAUST Repository

    Guha, Tania; Tiwari, Yogesh K.; Valsala, Vinu; Lin, Xin; Ramonet, Michel; Mahajan, Anoop; Datye, Amey; Kumar, K. Ravi

    2017-01-01

    Atmospheric CH4 observations from two ground-based stations within Indian subcontinent, namely, Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama station (CRI) showed a strong seasonality with a minima (∼1800 ± 20 ppb) during southwest monsoon (SWM; i.e. June–September, JJAS) and a maxima (2000 ± 30 ppb) during northeast monsoon (NEM i.e. December–February, DJF) with a peak-to-peak seasonality close to 200 ppb. The Indian summer (winter) monsoon is characterized with strong southwesterly (northeasterly) winds of oceanic origin at the surface level and strong easterly (westerly) jet streams aloft. The monsoon dynamics has pronounced impact on CH4 variability over India and is analyzed with winds, Lagrangian trajectories, and 3-dimentional distributions of CH4 simulated by a general circulation model. The model simulations suggest a consistent annual vertical structure (mean and sub-seasonal uncertainty) of CH4 over India with a stark contrast in concentration from summer to winter at surface levels (below 750 mb) in confirmation with what is identified by the ground-based observations. During SWM (NEM) the air with comparatively lower (higher) CH4 concentrations from southern (northern) hemisphere reduces the CH4 over India by 1814 ± 26 ppb (enhances by 1950 ± 51 ppb). The contribution of local fluxes to this seasonality appears to be albeit weak as the synthesized CH4 fluxes (from EDGAR dataset) of the Indian peninsula itself show a peak in summer and a dip in winter. Similar property of CH4 is also common to nearby oceanic region (i.e. over Arabian Sea, 1765 ± 10 ppb during summer) suggesting the role of monsoon dynamics as the controlling factor. Further the mixing and convection carries the CH4 to the upper atmosphere and advect inward or outward aloft according the seasonal monsoon dynamics.

  17. What controls the atmospheric methane seasonal variability over India?

    KAUST Repository

    Guha, Tania

    2017-11-28

    Atmospheric CH4 observations from two ground-based stations within Indian subcontinent, namely, Sinhagad (SNG) and Cape Rama station (CRI) showed a strong seasonality with a minima (∼1800 ± 20 ppb) during southwest monsoon (SWM; i.e. June–September, JJAS) and a maxima (2000 ± 30 ppb) during northeast monsoon (NEM i.e. December–February, DJF) with a peak-to-peak seasonality close to 200 ppb. The Indian summer (winter) monsoon is characterized with strong southwesterly (northeasterly) winds of oceanic origin at the surface level and strong easterly (westerly) jet streams aloft. The monsoon dynamics has pronounced impact on CH4 variability over India and is analyzed with winds, Lagrangian trajectories, and 3-dimentional distributions of CH4 simulated by a general circulation model. The model simulations suggest a consistent annual vertical structure (mean and sub-seasonal uncertainty) of CH4 over India with a stark contrast in concentration from summer to winter at surface levels (below 750 mb) in confirmation with what is identified by the ground-based observations. During SWM (NEM) the air with comparatively lower (higher) CH4 concentrations from southern (northern) hemisphere reduces the CH4 over India by 1814 ± 26 ppb (enhances by 1950 ± 51 ppb). The contribution of local fluxes to this seasonality appears to be albeit weak as the synthesized CH4 fluxes (from EDGAR dataset) of the Indian peninsula itself show a peak in summer and a dip in winter. Similar property of CH4 is also common to nearby oceanic region (i.e. over Arabian Sea, 1765 ± 10 ppb during summer) suggesting the role of monsoon dynamics as the controlling factor. Further the mixing and convection carries the CH4 to the upper atmosphere and advect inward or outward aloft according the seasonal monsoon dynamics.

  18. Within-season variability of fighting behaviour in an Australian alpine grasshopper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muschett, Giselle; Umbers, Kate D L; Herberstein, Marie E

    2017-01-01

    Throughout the breeding season, changing environmental and biological conditions can lead to variation in the reproductive landscape of many species. In alpine environments temperature is a key driver of behaviour for small ectotherms such as insects, but variable biotic factors such as mate quality and availability can also influence behaviour. Kosicuscola tristis is a small semelparous grasshopper of the Australian alpine region. In a rare behaviour among grasshoppers, K. tristis males engage in vigorous fights over access to females, involving mandible displays, kicking, biting and grappling. In this study we describe the variation in fighting behaviour of K. tristis throughout the breeding season and test several hypotheses related to temperature, body size, mating behaviour, and female quality. We show that K. tristis males are more aggressive toward each other at the end of the breeding season than at the beginning. This increased aggression is associated with decreased daily average temperatures (from ~20°C to ~9°C), decreased mating activity, increased female fecundity, and an unexpected trend toward an increase in female-to-male aggression. These results suggest that K. tristis is likely under increased selective pressure to time key life cycle events with favourable biological and climatic conditions. The stochastic nature of alpine environments combined with a relatively short life span and breeding season, as well as limited mating opportunities toward the end of the season may have contributed to the evolution of this extraordinary mating system.

  19. Sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere observed with GPS radio occultation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scherllin-Pirscher, Barbara; Randel, William J.; Kim, Joowan

    2017-04-01

    We investigate sub-seasonal temperature variability in the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) region using daily gridded fields of GPS radio occultation measurements. The unprecedented vertical resolution (from about 100 m in the troposphere to about 1.5 km in the stratosphere) and high accuracy and precision (0.7 K to 1 K between 8 km and 25 km) make these data ideal for characterizing temperature oscillations with short vertical wavelengths. Long-term behavior of sub-seasonal temperature variability is investigated using the entire RO record from January 2002 to December 2014 (13 years of data). Transient sub-seasonal waves including eastward-propagating Kelvin waves (isolated with space-time spectral analysis) dominate large-scale zonal temperature variability in the tropical tropopause region and in the lower stratosphere. Above 20 km, Kelvin waves are strongly modulated by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Enhanced wave activity can be found during the westerly shear phase of the QBO. In the tropical tropopause region, however, sub-seasonal waves are highly transient in time. Several peaks of Kelvin-wave activity coincide with short-term fluctuations in tropospheric deep convection, but other episodes are not evidently related. Also, there are no obvious relationships with zonal winds or stability fields near the tropical tropopause. Further investigations of convective forcing and atmospheric background conditions along the waves' trajectories are needed to better understand sub-seasonal temperature variability near the tropopause. For more details, see Scherllin-Pirscher, B., Randel, W. J., and Kim, J.: Tropical temperature variability and Kelvin-wave activity in the UTLS from GPS RO measurements, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 793-806, doi:10.5194/acp-17-793-2017, 2017. http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/17/793/2017/acp-17-793-2017.html

  20. Comparing daily temperature averaging methods: the role of surface and atmosphere variables in determining spatial and seasonal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhardt, Jase; Carleton, Andrew M.

    2018-05-01

    The two main methods for determining the average daily near-surface air temperature, twice-daily averaging (i.e., [Tmax+Tmin]/2) and hourly averaging (i.e., the average of 24 hourly temperature measurements), typically show differences associated with the asymmetry of the daily temperature curve. To quantify the relative influence of several land surface and atmosphere variables on the two temperature averaging methods, we correlate data for 215 weather stations across the Contiguous United States (CONUS) for the period 1981-2010 with the differences between the two temperature-averaging methods. The variables are land use-land cover (LULC) type, soil moisture, snow cover, cloud cover, atmospheric moisture (i.e., specific humidity, dew point temperature), and precipitation. Multiple linear regression models explain the spatial and monthly variations in the difference between the two temperature-averaging methods. We find statistically significant correlations between both the land surface and atmosphere variables studied with the difference between temperature-averaging methods, especially for the extreme (i.e., summer, winter) seasons (adjusted R2 > 0.50). Models considering stations with certain LULC types, particularly forest and developed land, have adjusted R2 values > 0.70, indicating that both surface and atmosphere variables control the daily temperature curve and its asymmetry. This study improves our understanding of the role of surface and near-surface conditions in modifying thermal climates of the CONUS for a wide range of environments, and their likely importance as anthropogenic forcings—notably LULC changes and greenhouse gas emissions—continues.

  1. Seasonal variability in methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from tropical peatlands in the western Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arn Teh, Yit; Murphy, Wayne A.; Berrio, Juan-Carlos; Boom, Arnoud; Page, Susan E.

    2017-08-01

    The Amazon plays a critical role in global atmospheric budgets of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). However, while we have a relatively good understanding of the continental-scale flux of these greenhouse gases (GHGs), one of the key gaps in knowledge is the specific contribution of peatland ecosystems to the regional budgets of these GHGs. Here we report CH4 and N2O fluxes from lowland tropical peatlands in the Pastaza-Marañón foreland basin (PMFB) in Peru, one of the largest peatland complexes in the Amazon basin. The goal of this research was to quantify the range and magnitude of CH4 and N2O fluxes from this region, assess seasonal trends in trace gas exchange, and determine the role of different environmental variables in driving GHG flux. Trace gas fluxes were determined from the most numerically dominant peatland vegetation types in the region: forested vegetation, forested (short pole) vegetation, Mauritia flexuosa-dominated palm swamp, and mixed palm swamp. Data were collected in both wet and dry seasons over the course of four field campaigns from 2012 to 2014. Diffusive CH4 emissions averaged 36.05 ± 3.09 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1 across the entire dataset, with diffusive CH4 flux varying significantly among vegetation types and between seasons. Net ebullition of CH4 averaged 973.3 ± 161.4 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1 and did not vary significantly among vegetation types or between seasons. Diffusive CH4 flux was greatest for mixed palm swamp (52.0 ± 16.0 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1), followed by M. flexuosa palm swamp (36.7 ± 3.9 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1), forested (short pole) vegetation (31.6 ± 6.6 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1), and forested vegetation (29.8 ± 10.0 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1). Diffusive CH4 flux also showed marked seasonality, with divergent seasonal patterns among ecosystems. Forested vegetation and mixed palm swamp showed significantly higher dry season (47.2 ± 5.4 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1 and 85.5 ± 26.4 mg CH4-C m-2 day-1, respectively) compared to wet season emissions

  2. Heart rate variability in workers of various professions in contrasting seasons of the year

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Markov

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: It is known that professional occupation affects the heart rate variability (HRV. However, most studies have not taken into account seasonal features of the HRV. The aim of this study has been to evaluate the HRV differences in winter and in summer in the case of the Ministry of the Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergencies and Elimination of Consequences of Natural Disasters (EMERCOM workers and scientific workers from the Komi Science Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences. Material and Methods: The short-term HRV was examined for 13 EMERCOM workers and 13 scientific workers. The data was collected in winter (December and summer (July for the same groups of workers. The time domain and frequency domain HRV analyses were performed. The EMERCOM workers had more contact with the external environment than the scientific workers. Results: The two-way analysis of variance with repeated observations on a single factor has shown that “Season” and interaction of two factors “Season” and “Profession” significantly influenced the HRV among volunteers. The “Profession” factor did not influence the HRV parameters (except for the heart rate in winter, p = 0.042. Seasonal changes in the HRV parameters were not significant in the case of scientific workers. In contrast, the EMERCOM workers showed significantly decreased parameters of parasympathetic activity (the root-mean-square of successive differences in RR intervals, percentage of consecutive RR intervals differing by > 50 ms and the relative value high frequency power, p = 0.001, p = 0.014 and p = 0.009, respectively and increased parameters of sympathetic activity (the stress index and ratio of low-frequency power to high-frequency power, p = 0.012 and p = 0.006, respectively in winter as compared to summer. Conclusions: The results of our study indicate that, unlike the scientific workers, the EMERCOM workers showed significant changes in the

  3. Mechanism of seasonal eddy kinetic energy variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Minyang; Du, Yan; Qiu, Bo; Cheng, Xuhua; Luo, Yiyong; Chen, Xiao; Feng, Ming

    2017-04-01

    Enhanced mesoscale eddy activities or tropical instability waves (TIWs) exist along the northern front of the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. In this study, we investigate seasonal variability of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) over this region and its associated dynamic mechanism using a global, eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM) simulation, the equatorial mooring data, and satellite altimeter observations. The seasonal-varying enhanced EKE signals are found to expand westward from 100°W in June to 180°W in December between 0°N and 6°N. This westward expansion in EKE is closely connected to the barotropically-baroclinically unstable zonal flows that are in thermal-wind balance with the seasonal-varying thermocline trough along 4°N. By adopting an 1½-layer reduced-gravity model, we confirm that the seasonal perturbation of the thermocline trough is dominated by the anticyclonic wind stress curl forcing, which develops due to southerly winds along 4°N from June to December.

  4. Seasonal variability in irradiance affects herbicide toxicity to the marine flagellate Dunaliella tertiolecta

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sjollema, S.B.; Vavourakis, C.D.; van der Geest, H.G.; Vethaak, A.D.; Admiraal, W.

    2014-01-01

    Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) and Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR) of the solar spectrum affect microalgae directly and modify the toxicity of phytotoxic compounds present in water. As a consequence seasonal variable PAR and UVR levels are likely to modulate the toxic pressure of contaminants

  5. Intra-seasonal and Inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio over rain-shadow region of North peninsular India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morwal, S. B.; Narkhedkar, S. G.; Padmakumari, B.; Maheskumar, R. S.; Deshpande, C. G.; Kulkarni, J. R.

    2017-05-01

    Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of Bowen Ratio (BR) have been studied over the rain-shadow region of north peninsular India during summer monsoon season. Daily grid point data of latent heat flux (LHF), sensible heat flux (SHF) from NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the period 1970-2014 have been used to compute daily area-mean BR. Daily grid point rainfall data at a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° from APHRODITE's Water Resources for the available period 1970-2007 have been used to study the association between rainfall and BR. The study revealed that BR rapidly decreases from 4.1 to 0.29 in the month of June and then remains nearly constant at the same value (≤0.1) in the rest of the season. High values of BR in the first half of June are indicative of intense thermals and convective clouds with higher bases. Low values of BR from July to September period are indicative of weak thermals and convective clouds with lower bases. Intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability of BR is found to be inversely related to precipitation over the region. BR analysis indicates that the land surface characteristics of the study region during July-September are similar to that over oceanic regions as far as intensity of thermals and associated cloud microphysical properties are concerned. Similar variation of BR is found in El Nino and La Nina years. During June, an increasing trend is observed in SHF and BR and decreasing trend in LHF from 1976 to 2014. Increasing trend in the SHF is statistically significant.

  6. Benthic assemblages of rock pools in northern Portugal: seasonal and between-pool variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iacopo Bertocci

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the seasonal (winter vs summer and within season and spatial (between-pool variability of benthic assemblages of rock pools at mid-intertidal level along the shore of Viana do Castelo (North Portugal. Physical traits of rock pools, including size, depth and position along the shore, were also compared between pools. While pools did not differ for any of the examined physical traits, results indicated a clear seasonal difference in the structure of assemblages, including a total of 49 macroalgal and 13 animal taxa. This finding was driven by six taxa that are more abundant in winter (the reef-forming polychaete Sabellaria alveolata, the articulated coralline algae Corallina spp., the brown alga Bifurcaria bifurcata, the encrusting coralline alga Lithophyllum incrustans, the red alga Chondracanthus acicularis and the grazing snails Gibbula spp. and four algal taxa that are more abundant in summer (the invasive brown Sargassum muticum, the green Ulva spp., the kelp Laminaria ochroleuca and the filamentous red Ceramium spp.. These data provide a new contribution to the knowledge of rock pool systems and have potential implications for monitoring programmes aimed at assessing ecological modifications related to natural and anthropogenic disturbances and for identifying processes responsible for the variability of rock pool assemblages.

  7. Seasonal variability of the Red Sea, from GRACE time-variable gravity and altimeter sea surface height measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahr, John; Smeed, David; Leuliette, Eric; Swenson, Sean

    2014-05-01

    Seasonal variability of sea surface height and mass within the Red Sea, occurs mostly through the exchange of heat with the atmosphere and wind-driven inflow and outflow of water through the strait of Bab el Mandab that opens into the Gulf of Aden to the south. The seasonal effects of precipitation and evaporation, of water exchange through the Suez Canal to the north, and of runoff from the adjacent land, are all small. The flow through the Bab el Mandab involves a net mass transfer into the Red Sea during the winter and a net transfer out during the summer. But that flow has a multi-layer pattern, so that in the summer there is actually an influx of cool water at intermediate (~100 m) depths. Thus, summer water in the southern Red Sea is warmer near the surface due to higher air temperatures, but cooler at intermediate depths (especially in the far south). Summer water in the northern Red Sea experiences warming by air-sea exchange only. The temperature profile affects the water density, which impacts the sea surface height but has no effect on vertically integrated mass. Here, we study this seasonal cycle by combining GRACE time-variable mass estimates, altimeter (Jason-1, Jason-2, and Envisat) measurements of sea surface height, and steric sea surface height contributions derived from depth-dependent, climatological values of temperature and salinity obtained from the World Ocean Atlas. We find good consistency, particularly in the northern Red Sea, between these three data types. Among the general characteristics of our results are: (1) the mass contributions to seasonal SSHT variations are much larger than the steric contributions; (2) the mass signal is largest in winter, consistent with winds pushing water into the Red Sea through the Strait of Bab el Mandab in winter, and out during the summer; and (3) the steric signal is largest in summer, consistent with summer sea surface warming.

  8. Normal Variability of Weekly Musculoskeletal Screening Scores and the Influence of Training Load across an Australian Football League Season.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esmaeili, Alireza; Stewart, Andrew M; Hopkins, William G; Elias, George P; Lazarus, Brendan H; Rowell, Amber E; Aughey, Robert J

    2018-01-01

    Aim: The sit and reach test (S&R), dorsiflexion lunge test (DLT), and adductor squeeze test (AST) are commonly used in weekly musculoskeletal screening for athlete monitoring and injury prevention purposes. The aim of this study was to determine the normal week to week variability of the test scores, individual differences in variability, and the effects of training load on the scores. Methods: Forty-four elite Australian rules footballers from one club completed the weekly screening tests on day 2 or 3 post-main training (pre-season) or post-match (in-season) over a 10 month season. Ratings of perceived exertion and session duration for all training sessions were used to derive various measures of training load via both simple summations and exponentially weighted moving averages. Data were analyzed via linear and quadratic mixed modeling and interpreted using magnitude-based inference. Results: Substantial small to moderate variability was found for the tests at both season phases; for example over the in-season, the normal variability ±90% confidence limits were as follows: S&R ±1.01 cm, ±0.12; DLT ±0.48 cm, ±0.06; AST ±7.4%, ±0.6%. Small individual differences in variability existed for the S&R and AST (factor standard deviations between 1.31 and 1.66). All measures of training load had trivial effects on the screening scores. Conclusion: A change in a test score larger than the normal variability is required to be considered a true change. Athlete monitoring and flagging systems need to account for the individual differences in variability. The tests are not sensitive to internal training load when conducted 2 or 3 days post-training or post-match, and the scores should be interpreted cautiously when used as measures of recovery.

  9. Seasonal variability in the persistence of dissolved environmental DNA (eDNA in a marine system: The role of microbial nutrient limitation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian Salter

    Full Text Available Environmental DNA (eDNA can be defined as the DNA pool recovered from an environmental sample that includes both extracellular and intracellular DNA. There has been a significant increase in the number of recent studies that have demonstrated the possibility to detect macroorganisms using eDNA. Despite the enormous potential of eDNA to serve as a biomonitoring and conservation tool in aquatic systems, there remain some important limitations concerning its application. One significant factor is the variable persistence of eDNA over natural environmental gradients, which imposes a critical constraint on the temporal and spatial scales of species detection. In the present study, a radiotracer bioassay approach was used to quantify the kinetic parameters of dissolved eDNA (d-eDNA, a component of extracellular DNA, over an annual cycle in the coastal Northwest Mediterranean. Significant seasonal variability in the biological uptake and turnover of d-eDNA was observed, the latter ranging from several hours to over one month. Maximum uptake rates of d-eDNA occurred in summer during a period of intense phosphate limitation (turnover <5 hrs. Corresponding increases in bacterial production and uptake of adenosine triphosphate (ATP demonstrated the microbial utilization of d-eDNA as an organic phosphorus substrate. Higher temperatures during summer may amplify this effect through a general enhancement of microbial metabolism. A partial least squares regression (PLSR model was able to reproduce the seasonal cycle in d-eDNA persistence and explained 60% of the variance in the observations. Rapid phosphate turnover and low concentrations of bioavailable phosphate, both indicative of phosphate limitation, were the most important parameters in the model. Abiotic factors such as pH, salinity and oxygen exerted minimal influence. The present study demonstrates significant seasonal variability in the persistence of d-eDNA in a natural marine environment that can

  10. Seasonal Variability of Aragonite Saturation State in the North Pacific Ocean Predicted by Multiple Linear Regression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, T. W.; Park, G. H.

    2014-12-01

    Seasonal variation of aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) in the North Pacific Ocean (NPO) was investigated, using multiple linear regression (MLR) models produced from the PACIFICA (Pacific Ocean interior carbon) dataset. Data within depth ranges of 50-1200m were used to derive MLR models, and three parameters (potential temperature, nitrate, and apparent oxygen utilization (AOU)) were chosen as predictor variables because these parameters are associated with vertical mixing, DIC (dissolved inorganic carbon) removal and release which all affect Ωarag in water column directly or indirectly. The PACIFICA dataset was divided into 5° × 5° grids, and a MLR model was produced in each grid, giving total 145 independent MLR models over the NPO. Mean RMSE (root mean square error) and r2 (coefficient of determination) of all derived MLR models were approximately 0.09 and 0.96, respectively. Then the obtained MLR coefficients for each of predictor variables and an intercept were interpolated over the study area, thereby making possible to allocate MLR coefficients to data-sparse ocean regions. Predictability from the interpolated coefficients was evaluated using Hawaiian time-series data, and as a result mean residual between measured and predicted Ωarag values was approximately 0.08, which is less than the mean RMSE of our MLR models. The interpolated MLR coefficients were combined with seasonal climatology of World Ocean Atlas 2013 (1° × 1°) to produce seasonal Ωarag distributions over various depths. Large seasonal variability in Ωarag was manifested in the mid-latitude Western NPO (24-40°N, 130-180°E) and low-latitude Eastern NPO (0-12°N, 115-150°W). In the Western NPO, seasonal fluctuations of water column stratification appeared to be responsible for the seasonal variation in Ωarag (~ 0.5 at 50 m) because it closely followed temperature variations in a layer of 0-75 m. In contrast, remineralization of organic matter was the main cause for the seasonal

  11. Cold-season atmospheric response to the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gastineau, Guillaume; Frankignoul, Claude [LOCEAN/IPSL, Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 4 place Jussieu, BP100, Paris Cedex 05 (France)

    2012-07-15

    The influence of the natural variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the atmosphere is studied in multi-centennial simulations of six global climate models, using Maximum Covariance Analysis (MCA). In all models, a significant but weak influence of the AMOC changes is found during the Northern Hemisphere cold-season, when the ocean leads the atmosphere by a few years. Although the oceanic pattern slightly varies, an intensification of the AMOC is followed in all models by a weak sea level pressure response that resembles a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The signal amplitude is typically 0.5 hPa and explains about 10% of the yearly variability of the NAO in all models. The atmospheric response seems to be due primarily due to an increase of the heat loss along the North Atlantic Current and the subpolar gyre, associated with an AMOC-driven warming. Sea-ice changes appear to be less important. The stronger heating is associated to a southward shift of the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity and a decrease of the eddy activity in the North Atlantic storm track, which is consistent with the equivalent barotropic perturbation resembling the negative phase of the NAO. This study thus provides some evidence of an atmospheric signature of the AMOC in the cold-season, which may have some implications for the decadal predictability of climate in the North Atlantic region. (orig.)

  12. Seasonal variability of the carbonate system and coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi at a Scottish Coastal Observatory monitoring site

    Science.gov (United States)

    León, Pablo; Walsham, Pam; Bresnan, Eileen; Hartman, Susan E.; Hughes, Sarah; Mackenzie, Kevin; Webster, Lynda

    2018-03-01

    Lack of information about carbonate chemistry in inshore waters is a 'knowledge gap' in assessing the impacts of changing carbonate chemistry on the marine environment. Assessing the response of calcifying phytoplankton to this changing carbonate chemistry requires a greater understanding of temporal variation. This study provides a description of the variability of carbonate parameters at a monitoring site in the eastern coast of Scotland. Four-years of monthly data were analysed to assess the diversity, abundance and morphometrics of coccolithophores in relation to carbonate chemistry and environmental variables. The seasonality in carbonate parameters reflected the seasonal cycle in phytoplankton activity, with higher total alkalinity concentrations and pH and lower dissolved inorganic carbon concentrations during the growing season. The dominant coccolithophore at the site was Emiliania huxleyi which showed a clear seasonal pattern, being more abundant in mid-summer when warmer and nutrient-depleted conditions restricted the annual diatom bloom. This study revealed the presence of three morphotypes of E. huxleyi, type A, type A overcalcified (type AO) and type B, which were seasonally distributed throughout the year. The less calcified form was mainly observed in spring while heavily calcified morphotypes overlapped during summer. Autumn and winter months were dominated by the most calcified form (type AO). These results indicate that the seasonal pattern of E. huxleyi morphotypes was not related to the carbonate concentration at the site. This study reflects the strong interannual variability in carbonate chemistry and the complexity associated with coccolithophore calcification, and highlights the need of long-term data to understand the potential impact of ocean acidification on calcifying phytoplankton.

  13. Temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at seasonal and interannual time scales in a temperate beech forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Campioli

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The allocation of carbon (C taken up by the tree canopy for respiration and production of tree organs with different construction and maintenance costs, life span and decomposition rate, crucially affects the residence time of C in forests and their C cycling rate. The carbon-use efficiency, or ratio between net primary production (NPP and gross primary production (GPP, represents a convenient way to analyse the C allocation at the stand level. In this study, we extend the current knowledge on the NPP-GPP ratio in forests by assessing the temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at interannual (for 8 years and seasonal (for 1 year scales for a young temperate beech stand, reporting dynamics for both leaves and woody organs, in particular stems. NPP was determined with biometric methods/litter traps, whereas the GPP was estimated via the eddy covariance micrometeorological technique.

    The interannual variability of the proportion of C allocated to leaf NPP, wood NPP and leaf plus wood NPP (on average 11% yr−1, 29% yr−1 and 39% yr−1, respectively was significant among years with up to 12% yr−1 variation in NPP-GPP ratio. Studies focusing on the comparison of NPP-GPP ratio among forests and models using fixed allocation schemes should take into account the possibility of such relevant interannual variability. Multiple linear regressions indicated that the NPP-GPP ratio of leaves and wood significantly correlated with environmental conditions. Previous year drought and air temperature explained about half of the NPP-GPP variability of leaves and wood, respectively, whereas the NPP-GPP ratio was not decreased by severe drought, with large NPP-GPP ratio on 2003 due mainly to low GPP. During the period between early May and mid June, the majority of GPP was allocated to leaf and stem NPP, whereas these sinks were of little importance later on. Improved estimation of seasonal GPP and of the

  14. Seasonal Variability of Salt Transports in the Northern Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Addezio, J. M.; Bulusu, S.

    2016-02-01

    Due to limited observational data in the Indian Ocean compared to other regions of the global ocean, past work on the Northern Indian Ocean (NIO) has relied heavily upon model analysis to study the variability of regional salinity advection caused by the monsoon seasons. With the launch of the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite in 2009 and the Aquarius SAC-D mission in 2011 (ended on June 7, 2011), remotely sensed, synoptic scale sea surface salinity (SSS) data is now readily available to study this dynamic region. The new observational data has allowed us to revisit the region to analyze seasonal variability of salinity advection in the NIO using several modeled products, the Aquarius and SMOS satellites, and Argo floats data. The model simulations include the Consortium for Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO2), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Ocean Reanalysis System 4 (ECMWF-ORSA4), Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) Reanalysis, and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Our analyses of salinity at the surface and at depths up to 200 m, surface salt transport in the top 5 m layer, and depth-integrated salt transports revealed different salinity processes in the NIO that are dominantly related to the semi-annual monsoons. Aquarius and SMOS prove useful tools for observing this dynamic region, and reveal some aspects of SSS that Argo cannot resolve. Meridional depth-integrated salt transports using the modeled products along 6°N revealed dominant advective processes from the surface towards near-bottom depths. Finally, a difference in subsurface salinity stratification causes many of the modeled products to incorrectly estimate the magnitude and seasonality of NIO barrier layer thickness (BLT) when compared to the Argo solution. This problem is also evident in model output from the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR), a region with strong air-sea teleconnections with the Arabian Sea.

  15. The transfer of seasonal isotopic variability between precipitation and drip water at eight caves in the monsoon regions of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Wuhui; Ruan, Jiaoyang; Luo, Weijun; Li, Tingyong; Tian, Lijun; Zeng, Guangneng; Zhang, Dezhong; Bai, Yijun; Li, Jilong; Tao, Tao; Zhang, Pingzhong; Baker, Andy; Tan, Ming

    2016-06-01

    This study presents new stable isotope data for precipitation (δ18Op) and drip water (δ18Od) from eight cave sites in the monsoon regions of China (MRC), with monthly to bi-monthly sampling intervals from May-2011 to April-2014, to investigate the regional-scale climate forcing on δ18Op and how the isotopic signals are transmitted to various drip sites. The monthly δ18Op values show negative correlation with surface air temperature at all the cave sites except Shihua Cave, which is opposite to that expected from the temperature effect. In addition, although the monthly δ18Op values are negatively correlated with precipitation at all the cave sites, only three sites are significant at the 95% level. These indicate that, due to the various vapor sources, a large portion of variability in δ18Op in the MRC cannot be explained simply by either temperature or precipitation alone. All the thirty-four drip sites are classified into three types based on the δ18Od variability. About 82% of them are static drips with little discernable variation in δ18Od through the whole study period, but the drip rates of these drips are not necessary constant. Their discharge modes are site-specific and the oxygen isotopic composition of the stalagmites growing from them may record the average of multi-year climatic signals, which are modulated by the seasonality of recharge and potential effects of evaporation, and in some cases infiltration from large rainfall events. About 12% of the thirty-four drip sites are seasonal drips, although the amplitude of δ18Od is narrower than that of δ18Op, the monthly response of δ18Od to coeval precipitation is not completely damped, and some of them follow the seasonal trend of δ18Op very well. These drips may be mainly recharged by present-day precipitation, mixing with some stored water. Thus, the stalagmites growing under them may record portions of the seasonal climatic signals embedded in δ18Op. About 6% of the thirty-four drip sites

  16. Seasonal variability in methane and nitrous oxide fluxes from tropical peatlands in the western Amazon basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. A. Teh

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The Amazon plays a critical role in global atmospheric budgets of methane (CH4 and nitrous oxide (N2O. However, while we have a relatively good understanding of the continental-scale flux of these greenhouse gases (GHGs, one of the key gaps in knowledge is the specific contribution of peatland ecosystems to the regional budgets of these GHGs. Here we report CH4 and N2O fluxes from lowland tropical peatlands in the Pastaza–Marañón foreland basin (PMFB in Peru, one of the largest peatland complexes in the Amazon basin. The goal of this research was to quantify the range and magnitude of CH4 and N2O fluxes from this region, assess seasonal trends in trace gas exchange, and determine the role of different environmental variables in driving GHG flux. Trace gas fluxes were determined from the most numerically dominant peatland vegetation types in the region: forested vegetation, forested (short pole vegetation, Mauritia flexuosa-dominated palm swamp, and mixed palm swamp. Data were collected in both wet and dry seasons over the course of four field campaigns from 2012 to 2014. Diffusive CH4 emissions averaged 36.05 ± 3.09 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1 across the entire dataset, with diffusive CH4 flux varying significantly among vegetation types and between seasons. Net ebullition of CH4 averaged 973.3 ± 161.4 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1 and did not vary significantly among vegetation types or between seasons. Diffusive CH4 flux was greatest for mixed palm swamp (52.0 ± 16.0 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1, followed by M. flexuosa palm swamp (36.7 ± 3.9 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1, forested (short pole vegetation (31.6 ± 6.6 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1, and forested vegetation (29.8 ± 10.0 mg CH4–C m−2 day−1. Diffusive CH4 flux also showed marked seasonality, with divergent seasonal patterns among ecosystems. Forested vegetation and mixed palm swamp showed significantly higher

  17. Real-time monitoring of smallholder farmer responses to intra-seasonal climate variability in central Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krell, N.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Caylor, K. K.

    2017-12-01

    While international metrics of food security and water availability are generated as spatial averages at the regional to national levels, climate variability impacts are differentially felt at the household level. This project investigated scales of variability of climate impacts on smallholder farmers using social and environmental data in central Kenya. Using sub-daily real-time environmental measurements to monitor smallholder agriculture, we investigated how changes in seasonal precipitation affected food security around Laikipia county from September 2015 to present. We also conducted SMS-based surveys of over 700 farmers to understand farmers' decision-making within the growing season. Our results highlight field-scale heterogeneity in biophysical and social factors governing crop yields using locally sensed real-time environmental data and weekly farmer-reported information about planting, harvesting, irrigation, and crop yields. Our preliminary results show relationships between changes in seasonal precipitation, NDVI, and soil moisture related to crop yields and decision-making at several scales. These datasets present a unique opportunity to collect highly spatially and temporally resolved information from data-poor regions at the household level.

  18. Seasonal variability of thermal fronts in the northern South China Sea from satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Dongxiao; Liu, Yun; Qi, Yiquan; Shi, Ping

    The 8-year (1991-1998) Pathfinder sea surface temperature data have been applied here to produce the objectively derived seasonality of the oceanic thermal fronts in the northern South China Sea from 17°N to 25°N. Several fronts have been clearly distinguished, namely, Fujian and Guangdong Coastal Water, Pear River Estuary Coastal, Taiwan Bank, Kuroshio Intrusion, Hainan Island East Coast and Tonkin Gulf Coastal fronts. The frontal patterns in winter, spring and summer are quite similar, whereas individual fronts display different modes of seasonal variability due to different mechanisms favoring those fronts.

  19. The Angola Current and its seasonal variability as observed at 11°S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopte, Robert; Brandt, Peter; Dengler, Marcus; Claus, Martin; Greatbatch, Richard J.

    2016-04-01

    The eastern boundary circulation off the coast of Angola has been described only sparsely to date. The region off Angola, which connects the equatorial Atlantic and the Angola-Benguela upwelling regime, is of particular interest to understand the relative importance of transient equatorial versus local forcing of the observed variability in the coastal upwelling region. For the first time multi-year velocity observations of the Angola Current at 11°S are available. From July 2013 to November 2015 a bottom shield equipped with an ADCP had been deployed at 500m water depth, accompanied by a mooring sitting on the 1200m-isobath with an ADCP being installed at 500m depth. Both upward-looking instruments measured the current speed up to about 50m below the sea surface. During the deployment period the Angola Current was characterized by a weak southward mean flow of 5-8 cm/s at 50m depth (slightly stronger at the in-shore mooring position), with the southward current penetrating down to about 200m depth. The alongshore velocity component reveals a pronounced seasonal variability. It is dominated by 120-day, semi-annual, and annual oscillations with distinct baroclinic structures. Here we apply a reduced gravity model of the tropical Atlantic for the first five baroclinic modes forced with interannually varying wind stress to investigate the seasonal variability along the equatorial and coastal waveguides. In the equatorial Atlantic the 120-day, semi-annual, and annual oscillations are associated with resonant basin modes of the 1st, 2nd, and 4th baroclinic mode, respectively. These basin modes are composed of equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves as well as coastally trapped waves. The reduced gravity model is further used to study the respective role of the remote equatorial forcing, more specifically the influence of equatorial basin modes via coastally trapped waves, and the local forcing for the observed seasonal variability and associated baroclinic structure of the

  20. Spatial variability and trends of seasonal snowmelt processes over Antarctic sea ice observed by satellite scatterometers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arndt, S.; Haas, C.

    2017-12-01

    Snow is one of the key drivers determining the seasonal energy and mass budgets of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Here, we analyze radar backscatter time series from the European Remote Sensing Satellites (ERS)-1 and-2 scatterometers, from the Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT), and from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) in order to observe the regional and inter-annual variability of Antarctic snowmelt processes from 1992 to 2014. On perennial ice, seasonal backscatter changes show two different snowmelt stages: A weak backscatter rise indicating the initial warming and metamorphosis of the snowpack (pre-melt), followed by a rapid rise indicating the onset of internal snowmelt and thaw-freeze cycles (snowmelt). In contrast, similar seasonal backscatter cycles are absent on seasonal ice, preventing the periodic retrieval of spring/summer transitions. This may be due to the dominance of ice bottom melt over snowmelt, leading to flooding and ice disintegration before strong snowmelt sets in. Resulting snowmelt onset dates on perennial sea ice show the expected latitudinal gradient from early melt onsets (mid-November) in the northern Weddell Sea towards late (end-December) or even absent snowmelt conditions further south. This result is likely related to seasonal variations in solar shortwave radiation (absorption). In addition, observations with different microwave frequencies allow to detect changing snow properties at different depths. We show that short wavelengths of passive microwave observations indicate earlier pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates than longer wavelength scatterometer observations, in response to earlier warming of upper snow layers compared to lower snow layers. Similarly, pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates retrieved from Ku-Band radars were earlier by an average of 11 and 23 days, respectively, than those retrieved from C-Band. This time difference was used to correct melt onset dates retrieved from Ku-Band to compile a consistent time series from

  1. Seasonal variability of PM2.5 composition and sources in the Klang Valley urban-industrial environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Amil

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the fine particulate matter (PM2.5 variability in the Klang Valley urban-industrial environment. In total, 94 daily PM2.5 samples were collected during a 1-year campaign from August 2011 to July 2012. This is the first paper on PM2.5 mass, chemical composition and sources in the tropical environment of Southeast Asia, covering all four seasons (distinguished by the wind flow patterns including haze events. The samples were analysed for various inorganic components and black carbon (BC. The chemical compositions were statistically analysed and the temporal aerosol pattern (seasonal was characterised using descriptive analysis, correlation matrices, enrichment factor (EF, stoichiometric analysis and chemical mass closure (CMC. For source apportionment purposes, a combination of positive matrix factorisation (PMF and multi-linear regression (MLR was employed. Further, meteorological–gaseous parameters were incorporated into each analysis for improved assessment. In addition, secondary data of total suspended particulate (TSP and coarse particulate matter (PM10 sampled at the same location and time with this study (collected by Malaysian Meteorological Department were used for PM ratio assessment. The results showed that PM2.5 mass averaged at 28 ± 18 µg m−3, 2.8-fold higher than the World Health Organisation (WHO annual guideline. On a daily basis, the PM2.5 mass ranged between 6 and 118 µg m−3 with the daily WHO guideline exceeded 43 % of the time. The north-east (NE monsoon was the only season with less than 50 % sample exceedance of the daily WHO guideline. On an annual scale, PM2.5 mass correlated positively with temperature (T and wind speed (WS but negatively with relative humidity (RH. With the exception of NOx, the gases analysed (CO, NO2, NO and SO2 were found to significantly influence the PM2.5 mass. Seasonal variability unexpectedly showed that rainfall, WS and wind direction (WD did not

  2. Significance of cold-season respiration and photosynthesis in a subarctic heath ecosystem in Northern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Klaus Steenberg; Ibrom, Andreas; Jonasson, S.

    2007-01-01

    While substantial cold-season respiration has been documented in most arctic and alpine ecosystems in recent years, the significance of cold-season photosynthesis in these biomes is still believed to be small. In a mesic, subartic heath during both the cold and warm season, we measured in situ...... ecosystem respiration and photosynthesis with a chamber technique at ambient conditions and at artificially, increased frequency of freeze-thaw (FT) cycles during fall and spring. We fitted the measured ecosystem exchange rates to respiration and photosynthesis models with R-2-values ranging from 0.81 to 0.......85. As expected, estimated cold-season (October, November, April and May) respiration was significant and accounted for at least 22% of the annual respiratory CO2 flux. More surprisingly, estimated photosynthesis during this period accounted for up to 19% of the annual gross CO2 uptake, suggesting that cold...

  3. Seasonal variability of morphospaces in a subtropical fish assemblage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carolina Correia Siliprandi

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Morphological characters of fishes are essential to evaluate the functional structure of assemblages, being morphological differences indicative of distinct ecological and adaptive strategies. The ecomorphology using morphospaces analyzes the structure of a fish assemblage through the values of intervals between homologous points positioned in anatomical structures of organisms phylogenetically related. These intervals can be quantified by morphogeometric and multivariate analyses. Seasonally during 2013-2014, standardized images were obtained from fishes sampled in Araça Bay, São Sebastião District, Brazil, using nine fishing gears which were grouped to verify the species occurrence variation. Qualitative approach (presence/absence data was used to carry out morphological analyses. A total of 27 landmarks and semilandmarks with anatomical, ecological and taxonomical meaning were positioned in species images of the left profile. Consensus figures were made embedding the intraspecific variability. Uniform components of the shape variation (RWs were generated. To build morphospaces, the first eight RWs were considered (explain more than 95% of the total morphological variability and were defined using Convex Hull. The RWs were also used to calculate the Morphological Richness (MR, Morphological Disparity (MD and Morphogeometric Index (EMI. The MD indicates the morphospace size and showed greater values in summer (0.051 and winter (0.047 as MR, related to the higher number of species (MRsummer=7.93; MRwinter=8.65. During all the year, the Araça Bay presents high diversity of fishes. Nevertheless, winter and summer seasons reached the highest diversity, periods when horizontal mobile fishes with elongated shapes arrive to the region, implying an increase of morphological diversity and shape’s redundancy (represented by the lowest values of EMI: winter=0.120; summer=0.123.

  4. Meteorological variables affect fertility rate after intrauterine artificial insemination in sheep in a seasonal-dependent manner: a 7-year study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palacios, C.; Abecia, J. A.

    2015-05-01

    A total number of 48,088 artificial inseminations (AIs) have been controlled during seven consecutive years in 79 dairy sheep Spanish farms (41° N). Mean, maximum and minimum ambient temperatures ( Ts), temperature amplitude (TA), mean relative humidity (RH), mean solar radiation (SR) and total rainfall of each insemination day and 15 days later were recorded. Temperature-humidity index (THI) and effective temperature (ET) have been calculated. A binary logistic regression model to estimate the risk of not getting pregnant compared to getting pregnant, through the odds ratio (OR), was performed. Successful winter inseminations were carried out under higher SR ( P 1 (maximum T, ET and rainfall on AI day, and ET and rainfall on day 15), and two variables presented OR AI day and maximum T on day 15). However, the effect of meteorological factors affected fertility in opposite ways, so T becomes a protective or risk factor on fertility depending on season. In conclusion, the percentage of pregnancy after AI in sheep is significantly affected by meteorological variables in a seasonal-dependent manner, so the parameters such as temperature reverse their effects in the hot or cold seasons. A forecast of the meteorological conditions could be a useful tool when AI dates are being scheduled.

  5. Seasonal variability in physiological and anatomical traits contributes to invasion success of Prosopis juliflora in tropical dry forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Marciel T; Souza, Gustavo M; Pereira, Silvia; Oliveira, Deborah A S; Figueiredo-Lima, Karla V; Arruda, Emília; Santos, Mauro G

    2017-03-01

    We investigated whether there were consistent differences in the physiological and anatomical traits and phenotypic variability of an invasive (Prosopis juliflora (Sw.) DC.) and native species (Anadenanthera colubrina (Vell.) Brenan) in response to seasonality in a tropical dry forest. The water potential, organic solutes, gas exchange, enzymes of the antioxidant system, products of oxidative stress and anatomical parameters were evaluated in both species in response to seasonality. An analysis of physiological responses indicated that the invasive P. juliflora exhibited higher response in net photosynthetic rate to that of the native species between seasons. Higher values of water potential of the invasive species than those of the native species in the dry season indicate a more efficient mechanism for water regulation in the invasive species. The invasive species exhibits a thicker cuticle and trichomes, which can reduce transpiration. In combination, the increased epidermal thickness and the decreased thickness of the parenchyma in the dry season may contribute to water saving. Our data suggest a higher variability in anatomical traits in the invasive species as a response to seasonality, whereas physiological traits did not present a clear pattern of response. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Seasonal and interannual variability of mesozooplankton in two contrasting estuaries of the Bay of Biscay: Relationship to environmental factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villate, Fernando; Iriarte, Arantza; Uriarte, Ibon; Sanchez, Iraide

    2017-12-01

    Seasonal and interannual variations of total mesozooplankton abundance and community variability were assessed for the period 1998-2005 at 3 salinity sites (35, 33 and 30) of the estuaries of Bilbao and Urdaibai (southeast Bay of Biscay). Spatial differences in mesozooplankton seasonality were recognized, both within and between estuaries, related to differences between sites in hydrodynamic features and anthropogenic nutrient enrichment that drive phytoplankton biomass seasonal cycles. The within estuary seasonal differences in mesozooplankton community were mainly shown through seaward time-advances in the seasonal peak from summer to spring along the salinity gradient, linked to differences in phytoplankton availability during the summer, in turn, related to nutrient availability. These differences were most marked in the estuary of Urdaibai, where zooplankton seasonal pattern at 35 salinity (high tidal flushing) resembled that of shelf waters, while at 35 of the estuary of Bilbao zooplankton showed an estuarine seasonal pattern due to the influence of the estuarine plume. Cirripede larvae contributed most to the mesozooplankton seasonal variability, except at the outer estuary of Bilbao, where cladocerans and fish eggs and larvae were the major contributors, and the inner estuary of Urdaibai, where gastropod larvae contributed most. Total mesozooplankton increased at 30 salinity of the estuary of Bilbao and 35 salinity of the estuary of Urdaibai. Interannual variability of mesozooplankton at the lowest salinity of the estuary of Bilbao was mainly accounted for by copepods due to the introduction of non-indigenous species during estuarine rehabilitation from intense pollution. However, bivalve larvae and gastropod larvae showed the highest contributions at 35 salinity of the estuary of Urdaibai. At the rest of sites, the opposite interannual trends of polychaete larvae and hydromedusae generally made the highest contribution.

  7. European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J. M.; Herrmann, F. R.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (sensu IPCC) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe. More information in Ballester J, et al. (2016) Nature Climate Change 6, 927-930, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3070.

  8. Growing season temperature and precipitation variability and extremes in the U.S. Corn Belt from 1981 to 2012

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, S.; Shulski, M.

    2013-12-01

    Climate warming and changes in rainfall patterns and increases in extreme events are resulting in higher risks of crop failures. A greater sense of urgency has been induced to understand the impacts of past climate on crop production in the U.S. As one of the most predominant sources of feed grains, corn is also the main source of U.S. ethanol. In the U.S. Corn Belt, region-scale evaluation on temperature and precipitation variability and extremes during the growing season is not well-documented yet. This study is part of the USDA-funded project 'Useful to Usable: Transforming climate variability and change information for cereal crop producers'. The overall goal of our work is to study the characteristics of average growing season conditions and changes in growing season temperature- and precipitation-based indices that are closely correlated with corn grain yield in the U.S. Corn Belt. The research area is the twelve major Corn Belt states, including IL, IN, IA, KS, MI, MN, MO, NE, OH, SD, ND, and WI. Climate data during 1981-2010 from 132 meteorological stations (elevation ranges from 122 m to 1,202 m) are used in this study, including daily minimum, maximum, and mean temperature, and daily precipitation. From 1981 to 2012, beginning date (BD), ending date (ED), and growing season length (GSL) in the climatological corn growing season are studied. Especially, during the agronomic corn growing season, from Apr to Oct, temperature- and precipitation-based indices are analyzed. The temperature-based indices include: number of days with daily mean temperature below 10°C, number of days with daily mean temperature above 30°C, the sum of growing degree days (GDD) between 10°C to 30°C (GDD10,30, growth range for corn), the sum of growing degree days above 30°C (GDD30+, exposure to harmful warming for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 0°C and 44°C (GDD0,44, survival range limits for corn), the sum of growing degree days between 5°C and 35°C (GDD5

  9. Sea surface temperature variability over North Indian Ocean - A study of two contrasting monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.; Sathyendranath, S.; Viswambharan, N.K.; Rao, L.V.G.

    Using the satellite derived sea surface temperature (SST) data for 1979 (bad monsoon) and 1983 (good monsoon), the SST variability for two contrasting monsoon seasons is studied. The study indicates that large negative anomalies off the Somali...

  10. Seasonal Variations of Oceanographic Variables and Eastern Little Tuna (Euthynnus affinis) Catches in the North Indramayu Waters Java Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syamsuddin, Mega; Sunarto; Yuliadi, Lintang

    2018-02-01

    The remotely derived oceanographic variables included sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and Eastern Little Tuna (Euthynnus affinis) catches are used as a combined dataset to understand the seasonal variation of oceanographic variables and Eastern Little Tuna catches in the north Indramayu waters, Java Sea. The fish catches and remotely sensed data were analysed for the 5 years datasets from 2010-2014. This study has shown the effect of monsoon inducing oceanographic condition in the study area. Seasonal change features were dominant for all the selected oceanographic parameters of SST and Chl-a, and also Eastern Little Tuna catches, respectively. The Eastern Little Tuna catch rates have the peak season from September to December (700 to 1000) ton that corresponded with the value of SST ranging from 29 °C to 30 °C following the decreasing of Chl-a concentrations in September to November (0.4 to 0.5) mg m-3. The monsoonal system plays a great role in determining the variability of oceanographic conditions and catch in the north Indramayu waters, Java Sea. The catches seemed higher during the northwest monsoon than in the southeast monsoon for all year observations except in 2010. The wavelet spectrum analysis results confirmed that Eastern Little Tuna catches had seasonal and inter-annual variations during 2012-2014. The SST had seasonal variations during 2010-2014. The Chl-a also showed seasonal variations during 2010-2011 and interannual variations during 2011-2014. Our results would benefit the fishermen and policy makers to have better management for sustainable catch in the study area.

  11. Seasonal and interannual variability in grey seal diets on Sable Island, eastern Scotian Shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W D Bowen

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We studied seasonal and interannual variability in the diet of grey seals (Halichoerus grypus using faecal samples collected from Sable Island, Nova Scotia between 1991 and 1998. More than 28,000 prey from at least 28 taxa were identified from 1,245 faecal samples collect mainly in spring, fall and winter. Sand lance (Ammodytes dubius dominated the diet in all seasons and years, but the importance of this and other species varied over time. There was also evidence of seasonal and interannual variation in the size of prey consumed both within and among species. We compared diet composition with estimates of prey numbers and biomass from annual researchtrawl surveys conducted in March and July. Species-specific numerical corrections were applied to otolith counts to account for the complete digestion of otoliths, and fish catchability correction factors applied to trawl survey catches to account for trawl selectivity. Based on an odds ratio index of prey selectivity, grey seals positively selected sand lance in both seasons. Other species were either relatively avoided or eaten roughly in proportion to their estimated abundance.

  12. Seasonal to Mesoscale Variability of Water Masses in Barrow Canyon,Chukchi Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobre, C.; Pickart, R. S.; Moore, K.; Ashjian, C. J.; Arrigo, K. R.; Grebmeier, J. M.; Vagle, S.; Itoh, M.; Berchok, C.; Stabeno, P. J.; Kikuchi, T.; Cooper, L. W.; Hartwell, I.; He, J.

    2016-02-01

    Barrow Canyon is one of the primary conduits by which Pacific-origin water exits the Chukchi Sea into the Canada Basin. As such, it is an ideal location to monitor the different water masses through the year. At the same time, the canyon is an energetic environment where mixing and entrainment can occur, modifying the pacific-origin waters. As part of the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) program, a transect across the canyon was occupied 24 times between 2010-2013 by international ships of opportunity passing through the region during summer and early-fall. Here we present results from an analysis of these sections to determine the seasonal evolution of the water masses and to investigate the nature of the mesoscale variability. The mean state shows the clear presence of six water masses present at various times through the summer. The seasonal evolution of these summer water masses is characterized both in depth space and in temperature-salinity (T-S) space. Clear patterns emerge, including the arrival of Alaskan coastal water and its modification in early-fall. The primary mesoscale variability is associated with wind-driven upwelling events which occur predominantly in September. The atmospheric forcing of these events is investigated as is the oceanic response.

  13. Seasonality in the Austrian Economy: Common Seasonals and Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Kunst, Robert M.

    1992-01-01

    Abstract: Seasonal cointegration generalizes the idea of cointegration to processes with unit roots at frequencies different from 0. Here, also the dual notion of common trends, "common seasonals", is adopted for the seasonal case. Using a five-variable macroeconomic core system of the Austrian economy, it is demonstrated how common seasonals and seasonal cointegrating vectors look in practice. Statistical tests provide clear evidence on seasonal cointegration in the system. However, it is sh...

  14. Prediction of Indian Summer-Monsoon Onset Variability: A Season in Advance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pradhan, Maheswar; Rao, A Suryachandra; Srivastava, Ankur; Dakate, Ashish; Salunke, Kiran; Shameera, K S

    2017-10-27

    Monsoon onset is an inherent transient phenomenon of Indian Summer Monsoon and it was never envisaged that this transience can be predicted at long lead times. Though onset is precipitous, its variability exhibits strong teleconnections with large scale forcing such as ENSO and IOD and hence may be predictable. Despite of the tremendous skill achieved by the state-of-the-art models in predicting such large scale processes, the prediction of monsoon onset variability by the models is still limited to just 2-3 weeks in advance. Using an objective definition of onset in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the skillful prediction of onset variability is feasible under seasonal prediction framework. The better representations/simulations of not only the large scale processes but also the synoptic and intraseasonal features during the evolution of monsoon onset are the comprehensions behind skillful simulation of monsoon onset variability. The changes observed in convection, tropospheric circulation and moisture availability prior to and after the onset are evidenced in model simulations, which resulted in high hit rate of early/delay in monsoon onset in the high resolution model.

  15. Temporal and spatial variability of frost-free seasons in the Great Lakes region of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Jeffrey A. Andresen

    2014-01-01

    The frequency and timing of frost events and the length of the growing season are critical limiting factors in many human and natural ecosystems. This study investigates the temporal and spatial variability of the date of last spring frost (LSF), the date of first fall frost (FFF), and the length of the frost-free season (FFS) in the Great Lakes region of the United...

  16. Seasonal, Spatial, and Long-term Variability of Fine Mineral Dust in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hand, J. L.; White, W. H.; Gebhart, K. A.; Hyslop, N. P.; Gill, T. E.; Schichtel, B. A.

    2017-12-01

    Characterizing the seasonal, spatial, and long-term variability of fine mineral dust (FD) is important to assess its environmental and climate impacts. FD concentrations (mineral particles with aerodynamic diameters less than 2.5 µm) were estimated using ambient, ground-based PM2.5 elemental chemistry data from over 160 remote and rural Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) sites from 2011 through 2015. FD concentrations were highest and contributed over 50% of PM2.5 mass at southwestern sites in spring and across the central and southeastern United States in summer (20-30% of PM2.5). The highest seasonal variability in FD occurred at sites in the Southeast during summer, likely associated with impacts from North African transport, which was also evidenced in the elemental ratios of calcium, iron, and aluminum. Long-term trend analyses (2000-2015) indicated widespread, regional increases in FD concentrations during spring in the West, especially in March in the Southwest. This increase was associated with an early onset of the spring dust season and correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The Southeast and central United States also experienced increased FD concentrations during summer and fall, respectively. Contributions of FD to PM2.5 mass have increased in regions across the United States during all seasons, in part due to increased FD concentrations but also as a result of reductions in secondary aerosols (e.g., sulfates, nitrates, and organic carbon). Increased levels of FD have important implications for its environmental and climate impacts; mitigating these impacts will require identifying and characterizing source regions and underlying mechanisms for dust episodes.

  17. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the western Black Sea shelf

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. I. Shapiro

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Long-term changes in the state of the Bottom Shelf Water (BSW on the Western shelf of the Black Sea are assessed using analysis of intra-seasonal and inter-annual temperature variations. For the purpose of this study the BSW is defined as such shelf water mass between the seabed and the upper mixed layer (bounded by the σθ = 14.2 isopycnal which has limited ability to mix vertically with oxygen-rich surface waters during the warm season due to formation of a seasonal pycnocline. A long-term time series of temperature anomalies in the BSW is constructed from in-situ observations taken over the 2nd half of the 20th century. The BSW is shown to occupy nearly half of the shelf area during the summer stratification period (May–November.The results reveal a warm phase in the 1960s/70s, followed by a cold phase between 1985 and 1995 and a further warming after 1995. The transition between the warm and cold periods coincides with a regime shift in the Black Sea ecosystem. While it was confirmed that the memory of winter convection is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the BSW significantly reduces during the warm season. The potential of the BSW to ventilate horizontally during the warm season with the deep-sea waters is assessed using isopycnic analysis of temperature variations. It is shown that temperature in the BSW is stronger correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters (CIW in the deep sea than with the severity of the previous winters, thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the western Black Sea shelf than effects of winter convection on the shelf itself.

  18. Seasonal variability and descent of mid-latitude sporadic E layers at Arecibo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Christakis

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Sporadic E layers (Es follow regular daily patterns in variability and altitude descent, which are determined primarily by the vertical tidal wind shears in the lower thermosphere. In the present study a large set of sporadic E layer incoherent scatter radar (ISR measurements are analyzed. These were made at Arecibo (Geog. Lat. ~18° N; Magnetic Dip ~50° over many years with ISR runs lasting from several hours to several days, covering evenly all seasons. A new methodology is applied, in which both weak and strong layers are clearly traced by using the vertical electron density gradient as a function of altitude and time. Taking a time base equal to the 24-h local day, statistics were obtained on the seasonal behavior of the diurnal and semidiurnal tidal variability and altitude descent patterns of sporadic E at Arecibo. The diurnal tide, most likely the S(1,1 tide with a vertical wavelength around 25 km, controls fully the formation and descent of the metallic Es layers at low altitudes below 110 km. At higher altitudes, there are two prevailing layers formed presumably by vertical wind shears associated mainly with semidiurnal tides. These include: 1 a daytime layer starting at ~130 km around midday and descending down to 105 km by local midnight, and 2 a less frequent and weaker nighttime layer which starts prior to midnight at ~130 km, descending downwards at somewhat faster rate to reach 110 km by sunrise. The diurnal and semidiurnal-like pattern prevails, with some differences, in all seasons. The differences in occurrence, strength and descending speeds between the daytime and nighttime upper layers are not well understood from the present data alone and require further study.

  19. Seasonal and spatial variability of surface ozone over China: contributions from background and domestic pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wang

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Both observations and a 3-D chemical transport model suggest that surface ozone over populated eastern China features a summertime trough and that the month when surface ozone peaks differs by latitude and region. Source-receptor analysis is used to quantify the contributions of background ozone and Chinese anthropogenic emissions on this variability. Annual mean background ozone over China shows a spatial gradient from 55 ppbv in the northwest to 20 ppbv in the southeast, corresponding with changes in topography and ozone lifetime. Pollution background ozone (annual mean of 12.6 ppbv shows a minimum in the summer and maximum in the spring. On the monthly-mean basis, Chinese pollution ozone (CPO has a peak of 20–25 ppbv in June north of the Yangtze River and in October south of it, which explains the peaks of surface ozone in these months. The summertime trough in surface ozone over eastern China can be explained by the decrease of background ozone from spring to summer (by −15 ppbv regionally averaged over eastern China. Tagged simulations suggest that long-range transport of ozone from northern mid-latitude continents (including Europe and North America reaches a minimum in the summer, whereas ozone from Southeast Asia exhibits a maximum in the summer over eastern China. This contrast in seasonality provides clear evidence that the seasonal switch in monsoonal wind patterns plays a significant role in determining the seasonality of background ozone over China.

  20. Nongrowing season methane emissions-a significant component of annual emissions across northern ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treat, Claire C; Bloom, A Anthony; Marushchak, Maija E

    2018-03-22

    Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), a greenhouse gas, and occur extensively in the northern hemisphere. Large discrepancies remain between "bottom-up" and "top-down" estimates of northern CH 4 emissions. To explore whether these discrepancies are due to poor representation of nongrowing season CH 4 emissions, we synthesized nongrowing season and annual CH 4 flux measurements from temperate, boreal, and tundra wetlands and uplands. Median nongrowing season wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g/m 2 in bogs to 5.2 g/m 2 in marshes and were dependent on moisture, vegetation, and permafrost. Annual wetland emissions ranged from 0.9 g m -2  year -1 in tundra bogs to 78 g m -2  year -1 in temperate marshes. Uplands varied from CH 4 sinks to CH 4 sources with a median annual flux of 0.0 ± 0.2 g m -2  year -1 . The measured fraction of annual CH 4 emissions during the nongrowing season (observed: 13% to 47%) was significantly larger than that was predicted by two process-based model ensembles, especially between 40° and 60°N (modeled: 4% to 17%). Constraining the model ensembles with the measured nongrowing fraction increased total nongrowing season and annual CH 4 emissions. Using this constraint, the modeled nongrowing season wetland CH 4 flux from >40° north was 6.1 ± 1.5 Tg/year, three times greater than the nongrowing season emissions of the unconstrained model ensemble. The annual wetland CH 4 flux was 37 ± 7 Tg/year from the data-constrained model ensemble, 25% larger than the unconstrained ensemble. Considering nongrowing season processes is critical for accurately estimating CH 4 emissions from high-latitude ecosystems, and necessary for constraining the role of wetland emissions in a warming climate. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. The value of seasonal forecasting and crop mix adaptation to climate variability for agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, H. S.; Schneider, U.; Schmid, E.; Held, H.

    2012-04-01

    Changes to climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events are expected to impose damages to the agricultural sector. Seasonal forecasting and long range prediction skills have received attention as an option to adapt to climate change because seasonal climate and yield predictions could improve farmers' management decisions. The value of seasonal forecasting skill is assessed with a crop mix adaptation option in Spain where drought conditions are prevalent. Yield impacts of climate are simulated for six crops (wheat, barely, cotton, potato, corn and rice) with the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Daily weather data over the period 1961 to 1990 are used and are generated by the regional climate model REMO as reference period for climate projection. Climate information and its consequent yield variability information are given to the stochastic agricultural sector model to calculate the value of climate information in the agricultural market. Expected consumers' market surplus and producers' revenue is compared with and without employing climate forecast information. We find that seasonal forecasting benefits not only consumers but also producers if the latter adopt a strategic crop mix. This mix differs from historical crop mixes by having higher shares of crops which fare relatively well under climate change. The corresponding value of information is highly sensitive to farmers' crop mix choices.

  2. Seasonal and inter-annual turbidity variability in the Rio de la Plata from 15 years of MODIS: El Niño dilution effect

    OpenAIRE

    Dogliotti, A.I.; Ruddick, K.; Guerrero, R.

    2016-01-01

    Spatio-temporal variability of turbidity in the Río de la Plata (RdP) estuary (Argentina) at seasonal and inter-annual timescales is analyzed from 15 years (2000–2014) of MODIS data and explained in terms of river discharges and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Satellite estimates were first validated using in situ turbidity measurements and then the time series of monthly averages were analyzed to assess the seasonal and inter-annual variability of turbidity. A strong seasonal variab...

  3. Use of color maps and wavelet coherence to discern seasonal and interannual climate influences on streamflow variability in northern catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Sean K.; Tetzlaff, Doerthe; Buttle, Jim; Laudon, Hjalmar; McDonnell, Jeff; McGuire, Kevin; Seibert, Jan; Soulsby, Chris; Shanley, Jamie

    2013-10-01

    The higher midlatitudes of the northern hemisphere are particularly sensitive to change due to the important role the 0°C isotherm plays in the phase of precipitation and intermediate storage as snow. An international intercatchment comparison program called North-Watch seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical variability and response. Here eight North-Watch catchments located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook, and HJ Andrews), and Canada (Dorset and Wolf Creek) with 10 continuous years of daily precipitation and runoff data were selected to assess daily to seasonal coupling of precipitation (P) and runoff (Q) using wavelet coherency, and to explore the patterns and scales of variability in streamflow using color maps. Wavelet coherency revealed that P and Q were decoupled in catchments with cold winters, yet were strongly coupled during and immediately following the spring snowmelt freshet. In all catchments, coupling at shorter time scales occurred during wet periods when the catchment was responsive and storage deficits were small. At longer time scales, coupling reflected coherence between seasonal cycles, being enhanced at sites with enhanced seasonality in P. Color maps were applied as an alternative method to identify patterns and scales of flow variability. Seasonal versus transient flow variability was identified along with the persistence of that variability on influencing the flow regime. While exploratory in nature, this intercomparison exercise highlights the importance of climate and the 0°C isotherm on the functioning of northern catchments.

  4. Low-frequency variability of the atmospheric circulation: a comparison of statistical properties in both hemispheres and extreme seasons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buzzi, A.; Tosi, E.

    1988-01-01

    A statistical investigation is presented of the main variables characterizing the tropospheric general circulation in both hemispheres and extreme season, Winter and Summer. This gives up the opportunity of comparing four distinct realizations of the planetary circulation, as function of different orographic and thermal forcing conditions. Our approach is made possible by the availability of 6 years of global daily analyses prepared by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast). The variables taken into account are the zonal geostrophic wind, the zonal thermal wind and various large-scala wave components, averaged over the tropospheric depth between 1000 and 200 hPa. The mean properties of the analysed quantities in each hemisphere and season are compared and their principal characteristics are discussed. The probability density estimates for the same variables, filtered in order to eliminate the seasonal cycle and the high frequency 'noise', are then presented. The distributions are examined, in particular, with respect of their unimodal or multimodal nature and with reference to the recent discussion in the literature on the bimodality which has been found for some indicators of planetary wave activity in the Nothern Hemisphere Winter. Our results indicate the presence of nonunimodally distributed wave and zonal flow components in both hemispheres and extreme season. The most frequent occurrence of nonunimodal behaviour is found for those wave components which exhibit an almost vanishing zonal phase speed and a larger 'response' to orographic forcing

  5. Climatology of extreme daily precipitation in Colorado and its diverse spatial and seasonal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahoney, Kelly M.; Ralph, F. Martin; Walter, Klaus; Doesken, Nolan; Dettinger, Michael; Gottas, Daniel; Coleman, Timothy; White, Allen

    2015-01-01

    The climatology of Colorado’s historical extreme precipitation events shows a remarkable degree of seasonal and regional variability. Analysis of the largest historical daily precipitation totals at COOP stations across Colorado by season indicates that the largest recorded daily precipitation totals have ranged from less than 60 mm day−1 in some areas to more than 250 mm day−1 in others. East of the Continental Divide, winter events are rarely among the top 10 events at a given site, but spring events dominate in and near the foothills; summer events are most common across the lower-elevation eastern plains, while fall events are most typical for the lower elevations west of the Divide. The seasonal signal in Colorado’s central mountains is complex; high-elevation intense precipitation events have occurred in all months of the year, including summer, when precipitation is more likely to be liquid (as opposed to snow), which poses more of an instantaneous flood risk. Notably, the historic Colorado Front Range daily rainfall totals that contributed to the damaging floods in September 2013 occurred outside of that region’s typical season for most extreme precipitation (spring–summer). That event and many others highlight the fact that extreme precipitation in Colorado has occurred historically during all seasons and at all elevations, emphasizing a year-round statewide risk.

  6. Variability of aerobic abilities of football players during competition season

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Novaković P.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine whether there are differences in VO2max during one season in a team of semi-professional football players. This study will also determine the differences between groups, in relation to their position in the team, as well as in relation between the first team and the reserves. This study was conducted on a male football team, between 16 and 28 years of age and with no health problems, competing in a third-tier league. The technique employed is testing and the instrument is the Shuttle Run test that estimated their aerobic capacity. The testing was conducted indirectly during field tests at the beginning of the preparatory period, at the beginning of the competing period and at the end of the season. After a statistical analysis, it can be concluded that there are significant differences between the initial testing, control testing, and final testing. The initial testing was done at the beginning of the preparatory period and the results of the test ranged from 41.50 to 58.10 ml/kg/min. Then after six weeks, which was also right before the start of the competitive part of the season, the control testing was conducted and the results ranged from 46.90 to 62.30 ml/kg/min. Finally, at the end of the season, after all league matches had been played, the final testing was carried out and the results were obtained ranging from 43.80 to 62.00 ml/kg/min. All the testing was conducted on a sample of 31 players, where no relation was discovered between the status of the players at any of the three time points. However, there were some statistically significant differences from the aspect of the players' position but that is due to the goalkeepers being statistically different from the rest of the team. The cause of the differences in the obtained results are differences in intensity, volume and type of training depending on the stage of the season, as well as the specificity of training for the various positions in

  7. Seasonal variability of salinity and salt transport in the northern Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    D’Addezio, J.M.; Subrahmanyam, B.; Nyadjro, E.S.; Murty, V.S.N.

    , University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208 2Department of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208 3 Department of Physics, University of New Orleans, New Orleans, LA 70148 4Council of Scientific and Industrial... are underrepresented in the literature. The almost 3 year record provided by Aquarius gives us reason to reexamine this seasonally variable region with the aid of this new observational dataset as well as analyze how the satellite-derived SSS compares with the Argo...

  8. Variability of wind stress and currents at selected locations over the north Indian Ocean during 1977 and 1979 summer monsoon seasons

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gopalakrishna, V.V.; Sadhuram, Y.; RameshBabu, V.; Rao, M.V.

    Intra-seasonal variability of wind stress, wind stress curl and currents at different locations over the northern Indian Ocean during two contrasting monsoon seasons has been investigated making use of the time series data collected during MONSOON...

  9. Short-term to seasonal variability in factors driving primary productivity in a shallow estuary: Implications for modeling production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canion, Andy; MacIntyre, Hugh L.; Phipps, Scott

    2013-10-01

    The inputs of primary productivity models may be highly variable on short timescales (hourly to daily) in turbid estuaries, but modeling of productivity in these environments is often implemented with data collected over longer timescales. Daily, seasonal, and spatial variability in primary productivity model parameters: chlorophyll a concentration (Chla), the downwelling light attenuation coefficient (kd), and photosynthesis-irradiance response parameters (Pmchl, αChl) were characterized in Weeks Bay, a nitrogen-impacted shallow estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Variability in primary productivity model parameters in response to environmental forcing, nutrients, and microalgal taxonomic marker pigments were analysed in monthly and short-term datasets. Microalgal biomass (as Chla) was strongly related to total phosphorus concentration on seasonal scales. Hourly data support wind-driven resuspension as a major source of short-term variability in Chla and light attenuation (kd). The empirical relationship between areal primary productivity and a combined variable of biomass and light attenuation showed that variability in the photosynthesis-irradiance response contributed little to the overall variability in primary productivity, and Chla alone could account for 53-86% of the variability in primary productivity. Efforts to model productivity in similar shallow systems with highly variable microalgal biomass may benefit the most by investing resources in improving spatial and temporal resolution of chlorophyll a measurements before increasing the complexity of models used in productivity modeling.

  10. Caribbean Sea rainfall variability during the rainy season and relationship to the equatorial Pacific and tropical Atlantic SST

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu, Renguang [Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Calverton, MD (United States); Kirtman, Ben P. [University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Miami, FL (United States)

    2011-10-15

    The present study investigates the Caribbean Sea rainfall variability during the early and late rainy seasons and its association with sea surface temperature (SST) and air-sea interaction based on observational estimates, the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) and Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations, and the CFS retrospective forecasts. Analysis of the observational estimates indicates that air-sea interaction is important over the Caribbean Sea, whereas the atmospheric forcing of SST dominates over the Gulf of Mexico. The CFS simulation captures the basic elements of this observed air-sea relationship. The GFS simulation produces spurious SST forcing of the atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico largely due to prescribing SST. The CFS forecasts capture the air-sea relationship in the late rainy season (August-October), but cannot reproduce the SST forcing of atmosphere over the Caribbean Sea in the early rainy season (May-July). An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that the leading modes of percent anomalies of the rainy season precipitation have the largest loading in the southern Caribbean Sea in observations. The model simulations and forecasts skillfully reproduce the spatial pattern, but not the temporal evolution. The Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the early rainy season is mainly due to the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST anomalies in observations, is contributed by both the TNA and eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) SST anomalies in the CFS simulation, and has an overly large impact from the EEP SST anomalies in the GFS simulation and the CFS forecasts. The observed Caribbean Sea rainfall variability in the late rainy season has a leading impact from the EEP SST anomalies, with a secondary contribution from the TNA SST anomalies. In comparison, the model simulations and forecasts overestimate the impacts of the EEP SST anomalies due to an earlier development and longer duration of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the CFS

  11. Nutrient characteristics of the water masses and their seasonal variability in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sardessai, S.; Shetye, S.; Maya, M.V.; Mangala, K.R.; PrasannaKumar, S.

    . (Position of Fig 1.) 3. Results and Discussion 3.1. Water masses in the area of observation You and Tomczak (1993) has reviewed the water masses in the Indian Ocean identified by the earlier workers ( Sverdrup et al. 1942; Mamalev, 1975; and Shcherbinin... at 200 m at 5° S in the meridional region of our observations and flows down to 800 m to the north and termed as Indian central water (ICW) (You and Tomczak, 1993). (position of Fig.2) 3.2. Seasonal variability of water masses The seasonal...

  12. Variability in cold front activities modulating cool-season evaporation from a southern inland water in the USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Heping; Blanken, Peter D; Weidinger, Tamas; Nordbo, Annika; Vesala, Timo

    2011-01-01

    Understanding seasonal variations in the evaporation of inland waters (e.g., lakes and reservoirs) is important for water resource management as well as the prediction of the hydrological cycles in response to climate change. We analyzed eddy covariance-based evaporation measurements from the Ross Barnett Reservoir (32 deg. 26'N, 90 0 02'W; which is always ice-free) in central Mississippi during the cool months (i.e., September-March) of 2007 and 2008, and found that the variability in cold front activities (i.e., passages of cold fronts and cold/dry air masses behind cold fronts) played an important role in modulating the exchange of sensible (H) and latent (λE) heat fluxes. Our analysis showed that 2007's warmer cool season had smaller mean H and λE than 2008's cooler cool season. This implies that the warmer cool season did not accelerate evaporation and heat exchange between the water surface and the atmosphere. Instead, more frequent cold fronts and longer periods of cold/dry air masses behind the cold fronts in 2008 resulted in overall larger H and λE as compared with 2007, this primarily taking the form of sporadic short-term rapid 'pulses' of H and λE losses from the water's surface. These results suggest that future climate-induced changes in frequency of cold fronts and the meteorological properties of the air masses behind cold fronts (e.g., wind speeds, temperature, and humidity), rather than other factors of climate change, would produce significant variations in the water surface's energy fluxes and subsequent evaporation rates.

  13. Seasonal forecasts: communicating current climate variability in southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available seasonal time scale. Seasonal climate forecasts are defined as probabilistic predictions of how much rain is expected during the season and how warm or cool it will be, based primarily on the principle that the ocean (sea-surface temperatures) influences...

  14. Tropospheric ozone seasonal and long-term variability as seen by lidar and surface measurements at the JPL-Table Mountain Facility, California

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. J. Granados-Muñoz

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A combined surface and tropospheric ozone climatology and interannual variability study was performed for the first time using co-located ozone photometer measurements (2013–2015 and tropospheric ozone differential absorption lidar measurements (2000–2015 at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory Table Mountain Facility (TMF; elev. 2285 m, in California. The surface time series were investigated both in terms of seasonal and diurnal variability. The observed surface ozone is typical of high-elevation remote sites, with small amplitude of the seasonal and diurnal cycles, and high ozone values, compared to neighboring lower altitude stations representative of urban boundary layer conditions. The ozone mixing ratio ranges from 45 ppbv in the winter morning hours to 65 ppbv in the spring and summer afternoon hours. At the time of the lidar measurements (early night, the seasonal cycle observed at the surface is similar to that observed by lidar between 3.5 and 9 km. Above 9 km, the local tropopause height variation with time and season impacts significantly the ozone lidar observations. The frequent tropopause folds found in the vicinity of TMF (27 % of the time, mostly in winter and spring produce a dual-peak vertical structure in ozone within the fold layer, characterized by higher-than-average values in the bottom half of the fold (12–14 km, and lower-than-averaged values in the top half of the fold (14–18 km. This structure is consistent with the expected origin of the air parcels within the fold, i.e., mid-latitude stratospheric air folding down below the upper tropospheric sub-tropical air. The influence of the tropopause folds extends down to 5 km, increasing the ozone content in the troposphere. No significant signature of interannual variability could be observed on the 2000–2015 de-seasonalized lidar time series, with only a statistically non-significant positive anomaly during the years 2003–2007. Our trend analysis

  15. Spatial variability of primary organic sources regulates ichthyofauna distribution despite seasonal influence in Terminos lagoon and continental shelf of Campeche, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romo Rios, J. A.; Aguíñiga-García, S.; Sanchez, A.; Zetina-Rejón, M.; Arreguín-Sánchez, F.; Tripp-Valdéz, A.; Galeana-Cortazár, A.

    2013-05-01

    Human activities have strong impacts on coastal ecosystems functioning through their effect on primary organic sources distributions and resulting biodiversity. Hence, it appears to be of utmost importance to quantify contribution of primary producers to sediment organic matter (SOM) spatial variability and its associated ichthyofauna. The Terminos lagoon (Gulf of Mexico) is a tropical estuary severely impacted by human activities even though of primary concern for its biodiversity, its habitats, and its resource supply. Stable isotope data (d13C, d15N) from mangrove, seaweed, seagrass, phytoplankton, ichthyofauna and SOM were sampled in four zones of the lagoon and the continental shelf through windy (November to February), dry (March to June) and rainy (July to October) seasons. Stable Isotope Analysis in R (SIAR) mixing model were used to determine relative contributions of the autotrophic sources to the ichthyofauna and SOM. Analysis of variance of ichthyofauna isotopic values showed significant differences (P < 0.001) in the four zones of lagoon despite the variability introduced by the windy, dry and rainy seasons. In lagoons rivers discharge zone, the mangrove contribution to ichthyofauna was 40% and 84% to SOM. Alternative use of habitat by ichthyofauna was evidenced since in the deep area of the lagoon (4 m), the contribution of mangrove to fish is 50%, and meanwhile contribution to SOM is only 77%. Although phytoplankton (43%) and seaweed (41%) contributions to the adjacent continental shelf ichthyofauna were the main organic sources, there was 37% mangrove contribution to SOM, demonstrating conspicuous terrigenous influence from lagoon ecosystem. Our results point toward organic sources spatial variations that regulate fish distribution. In Terminos lagoon, significant correlation (p-value = 0.2141 and r=0.79) of Ariopsis felis and Sphoeroides testudineus abundances and seaweed and seagrasses contributions (30-35%) during both dry and rainy seasons

  16. Variability of cold season surface air temperature over northeastern China and its linkage with large-scale atmospheric circulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Yuanhuang; Zhang, Jingyong; Wang, Lin

    2018-05-01

    Cold temperature anomalies and extremes have profound effects on the society, the economy, and the environment of northeastern China (NEC). In this study, we define the cold season as the months from October to April, and investigate the variability of cold season surface air temperature (CSAT) over NEC and its relationships with large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns for the period 1981-2014. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first EOF mode of the CSAT over NEC is characterized by a homogeneous structure that describes 92.2% of the total variance. The regionally averaged CSAT over NEC is closely linked with the Arctic Oscillation ( r = 0.62, 99% confidence level) and also has a statistically significant relation with the Polar/Eurasian pattern in the cold season. The positive phases of the Arctic Oscillation and the Polar/Eurasian pattern tend to result in a positive geopotential height anomaly over NEC and a weakened East Asian winter monsoon, which subsequently increase the CSAT over NEC by enhancing the downward solar radiation, strengthening the subsidence warming and warm air advection. Conversely, the negative phases of these two climate indices result in opposite regional atmospheric circulation anomalies and decrease the CSAT over NEC.

  17. TES ammonia retrieval strategy and global observations of the spatial and seasonal variability of ammonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. W. Shephard

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Presently only limited sets of tropospheric ammonia (NH3 measurements in the Earth's atmosphere have been reported from satellite and surface station measurements, despite the well-documented negative impact of NH3 on the environment and human health. Presented here is a detailed description of the satellite retrieval strategy and analysis for the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES using simulations and measurements. These results show that: (i the level of detectability for a representative boundary layer TES NH3 mixing ratio value is ~0.4 ppbv, which typically corresponds to a profile that contains a maximum level value of ~1 ppbv; (ii TES NH3 retrievals generally provide at most one degree of freedom for signal (DOFS, with peak sensitivity between 700 and 900 mbar; (iii TES NH3 retrievals show significant spatial and seasonal variability of NH3 globally; (iv initial comparisons of TES observations with GEOS-CHEM estimates show TES values being higher overall. Important differences and similarities between modeled and observed seasonal and spatial trends are noted, with discrepancies indicating areas where the timing and magnitude of modeled NH3 emissions from agricultural sources, and to lesser extent biomass burning sources, need further study.

  18. Impact of selected personal factors on seasonal variability of recreationist weather perceptions and preferences in Warsaw (Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindner-Cendrowska, Katarzyna; Błażejczyk, Krzysztof

    2018-01-01

    Weather and climate are important natural resources for tourism and recreation, although sometimes they can make outdoor leisure activities less satisfying or even impossible. The aim of this work was to determine weather perception seasonal variability of people staying outdoors in urban environment for tourism and recreation, as well as to determine if personal factors influence estimation of recreationist actual biometeorological conditions and personal expectations towards weather elements. To investigate how human thermal sensations vary upon meteorological conditions typical for temperate climate, weather perception field researches were conducted in Warsaw (Poland) in all seasons. Urban recreationists' preference for slightly warm thermal conditions, sunny, windless and cloudless weather, were identified as well as PET values considered to be optimal for sightseeing were defined between 27.3 and 31.7 °C. The results confirmed existence of phenomena called alliesthesia, which manifested in divergent thermal perception of comparable biometeorological conditions in transitional seasons. The results suggest that recreationist thermal sensations differed from other interviewees' responses and were affected not only by physiological processes but they were also conditioned by psychological factors (i.e. attitude, expectations). Significant impact of respondents' place of origin and its climate on creating thermal sensations and preferences was observed. Sex and age influence thermal preferences, whereas state of acclimatization is related with thermal sensations to some point.

  19. Diurnal and seasonal DOC and POC variability in the land-locked sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beata Szymczycha

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Organic matter is a minor yet important component of the marine environment. The aim of this study was to investigate the diurnal and seasonal changes in dissolved and particulate organic carbon (DOC and POC, respectively. Thus, DOC and POC as well as chlorophyll a (Chl a, δ13C, NO3−, NO2−, NH4+, PO43−, salinity, pH, and temperature were regularly measured in samples collected for 24 h (2-h resolution in the Gdańsk Deep (54°44.730′N, 19°08.531′E at three water depths (1, 10, and 40 m during sampling campaigns in 2011 (May, 2014 (May, and 2015 (January, March, May, July, September, November. Seasonal variations in DOC and POC followed the seasonality of Chl a (proportional trend and nutrients (reverse trend concentrations. Diurnal oscillations were detected in six out of the eight measurement series. The strongest diurnal variability in both POC and DOC occurred in May 2011 and March 2015, when phytoplankton activity was highest (high Chl a. The surprisingly low δ13C values (range: −28‰ to −24‰ measured over the course of the study revealed the gaps in our knowledge of the isotopic characteristics of terrestrial- vs. marine-derived particulate organic matter.

  20. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange of a temperate mountain grassland: effects of climate and management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlfahrt, Georg; Hammerle, Albin; Haslwanter, Alois; Bahn, Michael; Tappeiner, Ulrike; Cernusca, Alexander

    2008-04-27

    The role and relative importance of climate and cutting for the seasonal and inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO 2 (NEE) of a temperate mountain grassland was investigated. Eddy covariance CO 2 flux data and associated measurements of the green area index and the major environmental driving forces acquired during 2001-2006 at the study site Neustift (Austria) were analyzed. Driven by three cutting events per year which kept the investigated grassland in a stage of vigorous growth, the seasonal variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP). The role of environmental parameters in modulating the seasonal variability of NEE was obscured by the strong response of GPP to changes in the amount of green area, as well as the cutting-mediated decoupling of phenological development and the seasonal course of climate drivers. None of the climate and management metrics examined was able to explain the inter-annual variability of annual NEE. This is thought to result from (1) a high covariance between GPP and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) at the annual time scale which results in a comparatively small inter-annual variation of NEE, (2) compensating effects between carbon exchange during and outside the management period, and (3) changes in the biotic response to rather than the climate variables per se. GPP was more important in modulating inter-annual variations in NEE in spring and before the first and second cut, while R eco explained a larger fraction of the inter-annual variability of NEE during the remaining, in particular the post-cut, periods.

  1. Heavy metals seasonal variability and distribution in Lake Qaroun sediments, El-Fayoum, Egypt

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redwan, Mostafa; Elhaddad, Engy

    2017-10-01

    This study was carried out to investigate the seasonal variability and distribution of heavy metals ;HMs; (Fe, Mn, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and V) in the bottom sediments of Lake Qaroun, in Egypt. The samples were collected from 10 sites in summer and winter seasons in 2015. Total metals concentrations were measured using inductively coupled plasma spectrometer. Multivariate techniques were applied to analyse the distribution and potential source of heavy metals. The mean seasonal concentrations follow a descending order of Fe > Mn > V > Zn > Cr > Ni > Cu > Co > Pb. The mean concentrations of HMs in sediments during summer were higher than the concentrations during winter and above the average world shale values, except for Pb, suggesting potential adverse toxicity to aquatic organisms. All metals showed enrichment during summer and winter at sites S3 and S5 in the southeastern parts of the lake due to the heavy discharge of contaminants from El-Bats and El-Wadi drains. Principal component analysis results suggested two principal components controlling HMs variability in sediments, which accounted for 63.9% (factor 1: Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb and V), 15.9% (factor 2: Mn and Fe) during summer, and 76.7% (factor 1: Fe, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb and V), 13.8% (factor 2: Mn) during winter of the total variance. Geo-accumulation index (Igeo) showed some pollution risk at the southeastern and southern parts (sites S3 and S5). Dilution during winter, concentration during summer, impact of non-point sources from different agricultural, industrial, municipal sewage and fish farms in the southern part of Lake Qaroun, adsorption and salt dissolution reactions and lithogenic sources are the main controlling factors for HMs in the study area. Monitoring of contaminant discharge at Lake Qaroun should be introduced for future remediation and management strategies.

  2. The influence of the bottom cold water on the seasonal variability of the Tsushima warm current

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isobe, Atsuhiko

    1995-06-01

    Previous studies have concluded that the volume transport and surface current velocity of the Tsushima Warm Current are at a maximum between summer and autumn and at a minimum between winter and spring. Each study has obtained these results indirectly, using the sea level difference across the Tsushima-Korea Strait or dynamic calculation. Numerical experiments are performed to estimate the seasonal variability in the sea level difference caused by the Bottom Cold Water (BCW), which intrudes from the Sea of Japan along the Korean coast in the bottom layer. These experiments basically treat the baroclinic adjustment problem of the BCW in a rectangular cross section perpendicular to the axis (northeast-southwest direction) of the Tsushima-Korea Strait. It is a five-layer model for summer and a two-layer model for winter. The initial conditions and parameters in models are chosen so as to match the calculated velocity-density fields with the observed velocity-density fields [Isobe A., S. Tawara, A. Kaneko and M. Kawano (1994) Continental Shelf Research, 14, 23-35.]. Consequently, the experiments prove that the observed seasonal variability in the sea level difference across the Tsushima-Korea Strait largely contains the baroclinic motion caused by the BCW. It should be noted that the position of the BCW also plays an important role in producing a considerable seasonal variation of the sea level difference. It is critical to remove the baroclinic contribution from the observed sea level differences across the Tsushima-Korea Strait in order to estimate the seasonal variation in the volume transport of the Tsushima Warm Current.

  3. Chemical composition and seasonal variability of the essential oils of leaves and morphological analysis of Hyptis carpinifolia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stone de Sá

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Hyptis carpinifolia Benth., Lamiaceae, is a species known popularly as "rosmaninho" and "mata-pasto", and leaves are employed in Brazilian folk medicine to treat colds, flu, and rheumatism. The aim of this study was to perform a morphological description of H. carpinifolia and to evaluate the seasonal chemical variability of the leaf essential oils during 12 months. Macroscopic characterization of H. carpinifolia was carried out with the naked eye and with a stereoscopic microscope. Essential oils were isolated from leaves by hydrodistillation in Clevenger apparatus and analyzed by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Major compounds were found to be 1,8-cineole (39.6-61.8%, trans-cadina-1(6,4-diene (2.8-17.5%, β-caryophyllene (4.4-10.0%, prenopsan-8-ol (4.2-9.6% and β-pinene (2.9-5.3%. Results of essential oils compositions were processed by cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Data showed high variability in the concentration of the components. Besides, there was a seasonal variability of chemical composition, probably related mainly to the rainfall regime.

  4. Association of Seasonal Climate Variability and Age-Specific Mortality in Northern Sweden before the Onset of Industrialization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joacim Rocklöv

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and aims: Little is known about health impacts of climate in pre-industrial societies. We used historical data to investigate the association of temperature and precipitation with total and age-specific mortality in Skellefteå, northern Sweden, between 1749 and 1859. Methods: We retrieved digitized aggregated population data of the Skellefteå parish, and monthly temperature and precipitation measures. A generalized linear model was established for year to year variability in deaths by annual and seasonal average temperature and cumulative precipitation using a negative binomial function, accounting for long-term trends in population size. The final full model included temperature and precipitation of all four seasons simultaneously. Relative risks (RR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated for total, sex- and age-specific mortality. Results: In the full model, only autumn precipitation proved statistically significant (RR 1.02; CI 1.00–1.03, per 1cm increase of autumn precipitation, while winter temperature (RR 0.98; CI 0.95–1.00, per 1 °C increase in temperature and spring precipitation (RR 0.98; CI 0.97–1.00 per 1 cm increase in precipitation approached significance. Similar effects were observed for men and women. The impact of climate variability on mortality was strongest in children aged 3–9, and partly also in older children. Infants, on the other hand, appeared to be less affected by unfavourable climate conditions. Conclusions: In this pre-industrial rural region in northern Sweden, higher levels of rain during the autumn increased the annual number of deaths. Harvest quality might be one critical factor in the causal pathway, affecting nutritional status and susceptibility to infectious diseases. Autumn rain probably also contributed to the spread of air-borne diseases in crowded living conditions. Children beyond infancy appeared most vulnerable to climate impacts.

  5. Regression-based season-ahead drought prediction for southern Peru conditioned on large-scale climate variables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mortensen, Eric; Wu, Shu; Notaro, Michael; Vavrus, Stephen; Montgomery, Rob; De Piérola, José; Sánchez, Carlos; Block, Paul

    2018-01-01

    Located at a complex topographic, climatic, and hydrologic crossroads, southern Peru is a semiarid region that exhibits high spatiotemporal variability in precipitation. The economic viability of the region hinges on this water, yet southern Peru is prone to water scarcity caused by seasonal meteorological drought. Meteorological droughts in this region are often triggered during El Niño episodes; however, other large-scale climate mechanisms also play a noteworthy role in controlling the region's hydrologic cycle. An extensive season-ahead precipitation prediction model is developed to help bolster the existing capacity of stakeholders to plan for and mitigate deleterious impacts of drought. In addition to existing climate indices, large-scale climatic variables, such as sea surface temperature, are investigated to identify potential drought predictors. A principal component regression framework is applied to 11 potential predictors to produce an ensemble forecast of regional January-March precipitation totals. Model hindcasts of 51 years, compared to climatology and another model conditioned solely on an El Niño-Southern Oscillation index, achieve notable skill and perform better for several metrics, including ranked probability skill score and a hit-miss statistic. The information provided by the developed model and ancillary modeling efforts, such as extending the lead time of and spatially disaggregating precipitation predictions to the local level as well as forecasting the number of wet-dry days per rainy season, may further assist regional stakeholders and policymakers in preparing for drought.

  6. Interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and synoptic type association

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Engelbrecht, CJ

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The link between interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over the Cape south coast of South Africa and different synoptic types as well as selected teleconnections is explored. Synoptic circulation over the region is classified into different...

  7. Seasonal variability of planktonic copepods (Copepoda: Crustacea in a tropical estuarine region in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina de Oliveira Dias

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The Caravelas River estuary and adjacent coastal region were studied during the rainy and dry seasons of 2003-2004 to assess the copepod community structure. Abiotic and biotic parameters were measured, and the total density, frequency and percentage of copepod taxa were determined for each sampling period. Copepod densities showed significant differences between sampling periods, with higher densities in the rainy seasons (Mean: 90,941.80 ind.m-3; S.D.: 26,364.79. The sampling stations located to the north and south, in the coastal region adjacent to the Caravelas River estuary presented the lowest copepod density values. The copepod assemblage was composed mainly of estuarine and estuarine/coastal copepods. The seasonal variations in temperature and salinity influenced the abundance of species during the rainy and dry seasons, with the following dominant species alternating: Paracalanus quasimodo Bowman, 1971 in the rainy season of 2003, Parvocalanus crassirostris Dahl, 1894 in the dry season of 2003 and Acartia lilljeborgii Giesbrecht, 1892 in the rainy and dry seasons of 2004. Non-parametric multidimensional scaling indicated differences in copepod assemblages between sampling periods, but not between sampling stations.

  8. Assessing the Impact of Forest Change and Climate Variability on Dry Season Runoff by an Improved Single Watershed Approach: A Comparative Study in Two Large Watersheds, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yiping Hou

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Extensive studies on hydrological responses to forest change have been published for centuries, yet partitioning the hydrological effects of forest change, climate variability and other factors in a large watershed remains a challenge. In this study, we developed a single watershed approach combining the modified double mass curve (MDMC and the time series multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMAX to separate the impact of forest change, climate variability and other factors on dry season runoff variation in two large watersheds in China. The Zagunao watershed was examined for the deforestation effect, while the Meijiang watershed was examined to study the hydrological impact of reforestation. The key findings are: (1 both deforestation and reforestation led to significant reductions in dry season runoff, while climate variability yielded positive effects in the studied watersheds; (2 the hydrological response to forest change varied over time due to changes in soil infiltration and evapotranspiration after vegetation regeneration; (3 changes of subalpine natural forests produced greater impact on dry season runoff than alteration of planted forests. These findings are beneficial to water resource and forest management under climate change and highlight a better planning of forest operations and management incorporated trade-off between carbon and water in different forests.

  9. The Effect of Seasonal Variability of Atlantic Water on the Arctic Sea Ice Cover

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanov, V. V.; Repina, I. A.

    2018-01-01

    Under the influence of global warming, the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean (AO) is expected to reduce with a transition toward a seasonal ice cover by the end of this century. A comparison of climate-model predictions with measurements shows that the actual rate of ice cover decay in the AO is higher than the predicted one. This paper argues that the rapid shrinking of the Arctic summer ice cover is due to its increased seasonality, while seasonal oscillations of the Atlantic origin water temperature create favorable conditions for the formation of negative anomalies in the ice-cover area in winter. The basis for this hypothesis is the fundamental possibility of the activation of positive feedback provided by a specific feature of the seasonal cycle of the inflowing Atlantic origin water and the peaking of temperature in the Nansen Basin in midwinter. The recently accelerated reduction in the summer ice cover in the AO leads to an increased accumulation of heat in the upper ocean layer during the summer season. The extra heat content of the upper ocean layer favors prerequisite conditions for winter thermohaline convection and the transfer of heat from the Atlantic water (AW) layer to the ice cover. This, in turn, contributes to further ice thinning and a decrease in ice concentration, accelerated melting in summer, and a greater accumulation of heat in the ocean by the end of the following summer. An important role is played by the seasonal variability of the temperature of AW, which forms on the border between the North European and Arctic basins. The phase of seasonal oscillation changes while the AW is moving through the Nansen Basin. As a result, the timing of temperature peak shifts from summer to winter, additionally contributing to enhanced ice melting in winter. The formulated theoretical concept is substantiated by a simplified mathematical model and comparison with observations.

  10. Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Yi Loo

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment. Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon, many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is anthropologically related. The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally. In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness. This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970s found general increases which were mostly varying. But beyond the 1970s, global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period. There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon. Although precipitation is observed to be 70% below normal levels, in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall. These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future. The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human, financial, infrastructure and food security of the region.

  11. Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

    2017-10-01

    This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

  12. Leaf blade and petiole nutritional evolution and variability throughout the crop season for Vitis vinifera L. cv. Graciano

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dominguez, N.; García-Escudero, N.; Romero, I.; Benito, A.; Martín, I.

    2015-07-01

    An adequate nutritional state of a crop can be kept by means of a well-designed fertilization plan based on the assessment of the nutrient availability throughout the growing season. The objective of this study was to determine the reliability of leaf blade and petiole diagnosis and the period of validity of their references at both flowering and veraison by means of systematic monitoring throughout the complete growing season. The study was carried out in two plots planted with Vitis vinifera L. cv. Graciano within the AOC Rioja (Spain). Blades and petioles were collected throughout a growing season (2006) and total N, P, K, Ca, Mg, Fe, Mn, Zn, Cu and B concentrations were analyzed in both tissues. Results suggest, in general, that petioles have higher variability and lower analysis reproducibility than blades. Therefore, blade could be a more appropriate tissue to evaluate N, P, K, Ca, and Mg at both flowering and veraison in this variety. Micronutrients in blade and petiole showed different variability behaviour in each of the vineyards studied, therefore, based on our results, it was difficult to determine which one could be the best tissue for the nutritional diagnosis of the ‘Graciano’ variety. Seasonal changes of nutrient concentration in both tissues also confirmed the need for reference values for each tissue and each phenological stage. (Author)

  13. Variability of onset and retreat of the rainy season in mainland China and associations with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Qing; Hao, Zhenchun; Shao, Quanxi; Hao, Jie; Nyima, Tsring

    2018-02-01

    Precipitation plays an important role in both environment and human society and is a significant factor in many scientific researches such as water resources, agriculture and climate impact studies. The onset and retreat of rainy season are useful features to understand the variability of precipitation under the influence of climate change. In this study, the characteristics of onset and retreat in mainland China are investigated. The multi-scale moving t-test was applied to determine rainy season and K-means cluster analysis was used to divide China into sub-regions to better investigate rainy season features. The possible linkage of changing characteristics of onset and retreat to climate factors were also explored. Results show that: (1) the onset started from middle March in the southeast of China to early June in the northwest and rainy season ended earliest in the northwest and southeast while the central China had the latest retreat; (2) Delayed onset and advanced retreat over time were observed in many parts of China, together with overall stable or increased rainy-season precipitation, would likely lead to higher probability of flooding; (3) The onset (retreat) was associated with the increased (decreased) number of cyclones in eastern China and anticyclone near the South China Sea. Delayed onset, and advanced retreat were likely related to cold and warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the conventional El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) regions, respectively. These results suggest that predictability of rainy season can be improved through the atmospheric circulation and SST, and help water resources management and agricultural planning.

  14. Recent Changes in the Arctic Melt Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stroeve, Julienne; Markus, Thorsten; Meier, Walter N.; Miller, Jeff

    2007-01-01

    Melt-season duration, melt-onset and freeze-up dates are derived from satellite passive microwave data and analyzed from 1979 to 2005 over Arctic sea ice. Results indicate a shift towards a longer melt season, particularly north of Alaska and Siberia, corresponding to large retreats of sea ice observed in these regions. Although there is large interannual and regional variability in the length of the melt season, the Arctic is experiencing an overall lengthening of the melt season at a rate of about 2 weeks decade(sup -1). In fact, all regions in the Arctic (except for the central Arctic) have statistically significant (at the 99% level or higher) longer melt seasons by greater than 1 week decade(sup -1). The central Arctic shows a statistically significant trend (at the 98% level) of 5.4 days decade(sup -1). In 2005 the Arctic experienced its longest melt season, corresponding with the least amount of sea ice since 1979 and the warmest temperatures since the 1880s. Overall, the length of the melt season is inversely correlated with the lack of sea ice seen in September north of Alaska and Siberia, with a mean correlation of -0.8.

  15. Impact of Subsurface Temperature Variability on Meteorological Variability: An AGCM Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahanama, S. P.; Koster, R. D.; Liu, P.

    2006-05-01

    Anomalous atmospheric conditions can lead to surface temperature anomalies, which in turn can lead to temperature anomalies deep in the soil. The deep soil temperature (and the associated ground heat content) has significant memory -- the dissipation of a temperature anomaly may take weeks to months -- and thus deep soil temperature may contribute to the low frequency variability of energy and water variables elsewhere in the system. The memory may even provide some skill to subseasonal and seasonal forecasts. This study uses two long-term AGCM experiments to isolate the contribution of deep soil temperature variability to variability elsewhere in the climate system. The first experiment consists of a standard ensemble of AMIP-type simulations, simulations in which the deep soil temperature variable is allowed to interact with the rest of the system. In the second experiment, the coupling of the deep soil temperature to the rest of the climate system is disabled -- at each grid cell, the local climatological seasonal cycle of deep soil temperature (as determined from the first experiment) is prescribed. By comparing the variability of various atmospheric quantities as generated in the two experiments, we isolate the contribution of interactive deep soil temperature to that variability. The results show that interactive deep soil temperature contributes significantly to surface temperature variability. Interactive deep soil temperature, however, reduces the variability of the hydrological cycle (evaporation and precipitation), largely because it allows for a negative feedback between evaporation and temperature.

  16. Daily and seasonal rhythms in immune responses of splenocytes in the freshwater snake, Natrix piscator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathi, Manish Kumar; Singh, Ramesh; Pati, Atanu Kumar

    2015-01-01

    Present study was designed to examine daily and seasonal variability in the innate immune responses of splenocytes in the fresh water snake, Natrix piscator. Animals were mildly anesthetized and spleen was aseptically isolated and processed for macrophage phagocytosis, NBT reduction, nitrite production, splenocyte proliferation and serum lysozyme activity. Samples were collected at seven time points, viz., 0000, 0400, 0800, 1200, 1600, 2000 and 0000 h during three different seasons, namely summer, winter and spring. Cosinor analysis revealed that percent phagocytosis had a significant 24-h rhythm during summer and spring seasons. The peaks of rhythms in NBT reduction and nitrite release occurred in the morning hours at 10.88 h and 8.31 h, respectively, in winter. A significant 24-h rhythm was also observed in lysozyme concentration and splenocyte proliferation (both Basal and Concanavalin A stimulated) in all three seasons. A significant phase shift in splenocyte proliferation was obtained with a trend of delayed phase shift from winter to spring and from spring to summer. Of the nine variables, significant annual (seasonal) rhythms were detected in almost all variables, excluding phagocytic and splenosomatic indices. All rhythmic variables, except spleen cellularity, exhibited tightly synchronized peaks coinciding with the progressive and recrudescence phases of annual reproductive cycle. It is concluded that the snake synchronizes its daily and seasonal immune activity with the corresponding external time cues. The enhancement of immune function coinciding with one of its crucial reproductive phases might be helping it to cope with the seasonal stressors, including abundance of pathogens, which would otherwise jeopardize the successful reproduction and eventual survival of the species.

  17. About the seasonal variability of the Alboran Sea circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas-Yáñez, M.; Plaza, F.; García-Lafuente, J.; Sarhan, T.; Vargas, J. M.; Vélez-Belchi, P.

    2002-07-01

    Data from a mooring line deployed midway between the Alboran Island and Cape Tres Forcas are used to study the time variability of the Alboran Sea from May 1997 to May 1998. The upper layer salinity and zonal velocity present annual and semiannual cycles characterised by a minimum in spring and autumn and a maximum in summer and winter. Temperature has the opposite behaviour to that of salinity indicating changes in the presence of the Atlantic water within the Alboran Passage. A large set of SST images is used to study these cycles. The decrease of salinity and velocity in our mooring location in spring and autumn seems to be related to the eastward drifting of the Western Alboran Gyre (WAG). The increase of salinity and velocity is caused by the Atlantic current flowing south of the Alboran Island and its associated thermohaline front. Conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) data from two cruises along the 3°W are coherent with current meters and SST interpretations. During the period analysed, summer months are characterised by the stability of the two-gyre system, while in winter, the circulation is characterised by a coastal jet flowing close to the African shore. We use sea level differences across the Strait of Gibraltar for studying the variability of the Atlantic inflow. We discuss the changes in the Alboran Sea circulation and its relation with the variability of the inertial radius of the Atlantic inflow. Though our results are speculative, we find a possible relation between the disappearance of the two-gyre system and a reversal of the circulation in Gibraltar. Longer time series are needed to conclude, but comparison with previous works makes us think that the seasonal cycle described from May 1997 to May 1998 could be the most likely one for the Alboran Sea upper layer.

  18. Seasonal water chemistry variability in the Pangani River basin, Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selemani, Juma R; Zhang, Jing; Muzuka, Alfred N N; Njau, Karoli N; Zhang, Guosen; Maggid, Arafa; Mzuza, Maureen K; Jin, Jie; Pradhan, Sonali

    2017-11-01

    The stable isotopes of δ 18 O, δ 2 H, and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and dissolved major ions were used to assess spatial and seasonal water chemistry variability, chemical weathering, and hydrological cycle in the Pangani River Basin (PRB), Tanzania. Water in PRB was NaHCO 3 type dominated by carbonate weathering with moderate total dissolved solids. Major ions varied greatly, increasing from upstream to downstream. In some stations, content of fluoride and sodium was higher than the recommended drinking water standards. Natural and anthropogenic factors contributed to the lowering rate of chemical weathering; the rate was lower than most of tropical rivers. The rate of weathering was higher in Precambrian than volcanic rocks. 87 Sr/ 86 Sr was lower than global average whereas concentration of strontium was higher than global average with mean annual flux of 0.13 × 10 6  mol year -1 . Evaporation and altitude effects have caused enrichment of δ 18 O and δ 2 H in dry season and downstream of the river. Higher d-excess value than global average suggests that most of the stations were supplied by recycled moisture. Rainfall and groundwater were the major sources of surface flowing water in PRB; nevertheless, glacier from Mt. Kilimanjaro has insignificant contribution to the surface water. We recommend measures to be taken to reduce the level of fluoride and sodium before domestic use.

  19. Seasonal and interannual variability of the Mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon in coral δ18O records from the South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Donghuai; Gagan, Michael K.; Cheng, Hai; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Dykoski, Carolyn A.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Su, Ruixia

    2005-08-01

    strong ENSO cycle at 6.7 y, which is significantly longer than the average 3.6 y cycle observed since 1970. The results suggest that the influence of ENSO on winter SSTs in the South China Sea was well established by ∼4400 yr ago. However, spectral analysis of summer SSS ∼4400 yr ago shows no significant ENSO cycle, suggesting that teleconnections between ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall were restricted. Taken together, the results indicate marked differences in ENSO-monsoon interactions during the winter and summer monsoon seasons in the past. The fossil coral δ18O record also shows that the amplitude of interannual SST and SSS variability was stronger ∼4400 yr ago, despite ENSO variability being significantly weaker in the Pacific region. Thus it appears that the strengthened Mid-Holocene monsoon was sensitive to forces, other than ENSO, that acted as alternative drivers of interannual monsoon variability. If this is the case, greater interannual climate variability could accompany the strengthening of the Asian monsoon predicted to occur during the 21st century as transient greenhouse warming preferentially warms Eurasia, even if ENSO perturbations remain relatively stable.

  20. Time series pCO2 at a coastal mooring: Internal consistency, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reimer, Janet J.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Xue, Liang; Vargas, Rodrigo; Noakes, Scott; Hu, Xinping; Signorini, Sergio R.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Feely, Richard A.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sabine, Christopher; Musielewicz, Sylvia; Chen, Baoshan; Wanninkhof, Rik

    2017-08-01

    Marine carbonate system monitoring programs often consist of multiple observational methods that include underway cruise data, moored autonomous time series, and discrete water bottle samples. Monitored parameters include all, or some of the following: partial pressure of CO2 of the water (pCO2w) and air, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), and pH. Any combination of at least two of the aforementioned parameters can be used to calculate the others. In this study at the Gray's Reef (GR) mooring in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) we: examine the internal consistency of pCO2w from underway cruise, moored autonomous time series, and calculated from bottle samples (DIC-TA pairing); describe the seasonal to interannual pCO2w time series variability and air-sea flux (FCO2), as well as describe the potential sources of pCO2w variability; and determine the source/sink for atmospheric pCO2. Over the 8.5 years of GR mooring time series, mooring-underway and mooring-bottle calculated-pCO2w strongly correlate with r-values > 0.90. pCO2w and FCO2 time series follow seasonal thermal patterns; however, seasonal non-thermal processes, such as terrestrial export, net biological production, and air-sea exchange also influence variability. The linear slope of time series pCO2w increases by 5.2 ± 1.4 μatm y-1 with FCO2 increasing 51-70 mmol m-2 y-1. The net FCO2 sign can switch interannually with the magnitude varying greatly. Non-thermal pCO2w is also increasing over the time series, likely indicating that terrestrial export and net biological processes drive the long term pCO2w increase.

  1. Inter-seasonal variability in baseflow recession rates: The role of aquifer antecedent storage in central California watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bart, Ryan; Hope, Allen

    2014-11-01

    Baseflow recession rates vary inter-seasonally in many watersheds. This variability is generally associated with changes in evapotranspiration; however, an additional and less studied control over inter-seasonal baseflow recession rates is the effect of aquifer antecedent storage. Understanding the role of aquifer antecedent storage on baseflow recession rates is crucial for Mediterranean-climate regions, where seasonal asynchronicity of precipitation and energy levels produces large inter-seasonal differences in aquifer storage. The primary objective of this study was to elucidate the relation between aquifer antecedent storage and baseflow recession rates in four central California watersheds using antecedent streamflow as a surrogate for watershed storage. In addition, a parsimonious storage-discharge model consisting of two nonlinear stores in parallel was developed as a heuristic tool for interpreting the empirical results and providing insight into how inter-seasonal changes in aquifer antecedent storage may affect baseflow recession rates. Antecedent streamflow cumulated from the beginning of the wateryear was found to be the strongest predictor of baseflow recession rates, indicating that inter-seasonal differences in aquifer storage are a key control on baseflow recession rates in California watersheds. Baseflow recession rates and antecedent streamflow exhibited a negative power-law relation, with baseflow recession rates decreasing by up to two orders of magnitude as antecedent streamflow levels increased. Inference based on the storage-discharge model indicated that the dominant source of recession flow shifted from small, rapid response aquifers at the beginning of the wet season to large, seasonal aquifers as the wet season progressed. Aquifer antecedent storage in California watersheds should be accounted for along with evapotranspiration when characterizing baseflow recession rates.

  2. Seasonal and inter-annual temperature variability in the bottom waters over the Black Sea shelf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, G. I.; Wobus, F.; Aleynik, D. L.

    2011-02-01

    convection events is well preserved over the following months in the deep sea, the signal of winter cooling in the Bottom Shelf Waters significantly reduces during the warm season. The time series of temperature in the BSW is highly correlated with the temperature of Cold Intermediate Waters in the deep sea thus indicating that the isopycnal exchanges with the deep sea are more important for inter-annual/inter-decadal variability of the BSW on the Western Black Sea shelf than winter convection on the shelf itself.

  3. Seasonal variability of Internal tide energetics in the western Bay of Bengal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohanty, S.; Rao, A. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Internal Waves (IWs) are generated by the flow of barotropic tide over the rapidly varying and steep topographic features like continental shelf slope, seamounts, etc. These waves are an important phenomena in the ocean due to their influence on the density structure and energy transfer into the region. Such waves are also important in submarine acoustics, underwater navigation, offshore structures, ocean mixing and biogeochemical processes, etc. over the shelf-slope region. The seasonal variability of internal tides in the western Bay of Bengal is examined by using three-dimensional MITgcm model. The numerical simulations are performed for different periods covering August-September, 2013; November-December, 2013 and March-April, 2014 representing monsoon, post-monsoon and pre-monsoon seasons respectively during which high temporal resolution observed data sets are available. The model is initially validated through the spectral estimate of density and the baroclinic velocities. From the estimate, it is found that its peak is associated with the semi-diurnal frequency at all the depths in both observations and model simulations for November-December and March-April. However in August, the estimate is found to be maximum near the inertial frequency at all available depths. EOF analysis suggests that about 70-80% of the total variance comes from Mode-1 semi-diurnal internal tide in both observations as well as in the model simulations. The phase speed, group speed and wavelength are found to be maximum for post-monsoon season compared to other two seasons. To understand the generation and propagation of internal tides over this region, barotropic-to-baroclinic M2 tidal energy conversion and energy flux are examined. The barotropic-to-baroclinic conversion occurs intensively along the shelf-slope regions and propagate towards the coast. The model simulated energy dissipation rate infers that its maximum occurs at the generation sites and hence the local mixing

  4. Decreasing but still significant facilitation effect of cold-season macrophytes on wetlands purification function during cold winter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiangxu; Zhang, Hui; Zuo, Jie; Wang, Penghe; Zhao, Dehua; An, Shuqing

    2016-06-01

    To identify the facilitation effect of a cool-season aquatic macrophyte (FEam) for use in effluent purification via constructed floating wetlands (CFWs) and to determine the possible pathways used during a winter period with an average temperature of less than 5 °C, pilot-scale CFWs were planted with the cold-season macrophyte Oenanthe clecumbens and were operated as batch systems. Although some leaves withered, the roots retained relatively high levels of activity during the winter, which had average air and water temperatures of 3.63 and 5.04 °C, respectively. The N and P removal efficiencies in CFWs decreased significantly in winter relative to those in late autumn. The presence of cool-season plants resulted in significant improvements in N and P removal, with a FEam of 15.23-25.86% in winter. Microbial N removal accounted for 71.57% of the total N removed in winter, and the decrease in plant uptake was the dominant factor in the wintertime decrease in N removal relative to that in late autumn. These results demonstrate the importance of cold-season plants in CFWs for the treatment of secondary effluent during cold winters.

  5. Climate Drivers of Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation in the Source Region of Yangtze River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Y.; Berndtsson, R.; An, D.; Yuan, F.

    2017-12-01

    Variability of precipitation regime has significant influence on the environment sustainability in the source region of Yangtze River, especially when the vegetation degradation and biodiversity reduction have already occurred. Understanding the linkage between variability of local precipitation and global teleconnection patterns is essential for water resources management. Based on physical reasoning, indices of the climate drivers can provide a practical way of predicting precipitation. Due to high seasonal variability of precipitation, climate drivers of the seasonal precipitation also varies. However, few reports have gone through the teleconnections between large scale patterns with seasonal precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River. The objectives of this study are therefore (1) assessment of temporal trend and spatial variability of precipitation in the source region of Yangtze River; (2) identification of climate indices with strong influence on seasonal precipitation anomalies; (3) prediction of seasonal precipitation based on revealed climate indices. Principal component analysis and Spearman rank correlation were used to detect significant relationships. A feed-forward artificial neural network(ANN) was developed to predict seasonal precipitation using significant correlated climate indices. Different influencing climate indices were revealed for precipitation in each season, with significant level and lag times. Significant influencing factors were selected to be the predictors for ANN model. With correlation coefficients between observed and simulated precipitation over 0.5, the results were eligible to predict the precipitation of spring, summer and winter using teleconnections, which can improve integrated water resources management in the source region of Yangtze River.

  6. Population level evidence for seasonality of the human microbiome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korownyk, Christina; Liu, Fangwei; Garrison, Scott

    2018-04-01

    The objective of this study is to determine whether human body odors undergo seasonal modulation. We utilized google trends search volume from the United States of America from January 1, 2010 to June 24, 2017 for a number of predetermined body odors. Regression modeling of time series data was completed. Our primary outcome was to determine the proportion of the variability in Internet searches for each unpleasant odor (about the mean) that is explained by a seasonal model. We determined that the seasonal (sinusoidal) model provided a significantly better fit than the null model (best straight line fit) for all searches relating to human body odors (P odor, 60% of the variability in search volume for foot odor, and 58% of the variability in search volume for bad breath. Flatulence and bad breath tended to peak in January, foot odor in February, and Axillary odor in July. We conclude that searching by the general public for information on unpleasant body odors undergoes substantial seasonal variation, with the timing of peaks and troughs varying with the body part involved. The symptom burden of such smells may have a similar seasonal variation, as might the composition of the commensal bacterial microflora that play a role in creating them.

  7. Understanding Flood Seasonality and Its Temporal Shifts within the Contiguous United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ye, Sheng [Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, School of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; Li, Hong-Yi [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Leung, L. Ruby [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington; Guo, Jiali [College of Civil and Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, China; State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China; Ran, Qihua [Institute of Hydrology and Water Resources, School of Civil Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China; Demissie, Yonas [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Washington State University Tri-Cities, Richland, Washington; Sivapalan, Murugesu [Department of Geography and Geographic Information Science, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Champaign, Illinois; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, Illinois

    2017-07-01

    Understanding the causes of flood seasonality is critical for better flood management. This study examines the seasonality of annual maximum floods (AMF) and its changes before and after 1980 at over 250 natural catchments across the contiguous United States. Using circular statistics to define a seasonality index, our analysis focuses on the variability of the flood occurrence date. Generally, catchments with more synchronized seasonal water and energy cycles largely inherit their seasonality of AMF from that of annual maximum rainfall (AMR). In contrast, the seasonality of AMF in catchments with loosely synchronized water and energy cycles are more influenced by high antecedent storage, which is responsible for the amplification of the seasonality of AMF over that of AMR. This understanding then effectively explains a statistically significant shift of flood seasonality detected in some catchments in the recent decades. Catchments where the antecedent soil water storage has increased since 1980 exhibit increasing flood seasonality while catchments that have experienced increases in storm rainfall before the floods have shifted towards floods occurring more variably across the seasons. In the eastern catchments, a concurrent widespread increase in event rainfall magnitude and reduced soil water storage have led to a more variable timing of floods. Our findings of the role of antecedent storage and event rainfall on the flood seasonality provide useful insights for understanding future changes in flood seasonality as climate models projected changes in extreme precipitation and aridity over land.

  8. Season-to-Season Variations of Physiological Fitness Within a Squad of Professional Male Soccer Players

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Niall A.; Edwards, Andrew M.; Morton, R. Hugh; Butterly, Ronald J.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine season-to-season variations in physiological fitness parameters among a 1st team squad of professional adult male soccer players for the confirmatory purposes of identifying normative responses (immediately prior to pre-season training (PPS), mid-season (MID), and end-of-season (EOS)). Test-retest data were collected from a student population on the primary dependent variables of anaerobic threshold (AT) and maximal aerobic power (VO2 max) to define meaningful measurement change in excess of test-retest technical error between test-to-test performances. Participants from a pool of 42 professional soccer players were tested over a set sequence of tests during the 3-year period: 1) basic anthropometry, 2) countermovement jump (CMJ) tests 3) a combined AT and VO2 max test. Over the 3-year period there were no test-to-test changes in mean VO2 max performance exceeding pre-defined limits of test agreement (mean of eight measures: 61.6 ± 0.6 ml·kg-1·min-1). In contrast, VO2 at AT was significantly higher at the MID test occasion in seasons 2 (+4.8%; p = 0.04, p elite cohort between test-to-test occasions, VO2 max values did not vary significantly over the study which supports previous short-term observations suggesting a general ‘elite’ threshold of 60 ml·kg-1 min. Interestingly, AT significantly varied where VO2 max was stable and these variations also coincided with on- and off-seasons suggesting that AT is a better indication of acute training state than VO2 max. Key points Maximal aerobic power remains fairly stable across inter- and intra-season measurements. Anaerobic threshold appears more sensitive of training state confirming our earlier observations. The professional players tended to attain optimal performances at the mid-season interval over the 3 seasons, presumably prior to the development of accumulative fatigue. PMID:24150149

  9. Annual and seasonal variability of metals and metalloids in urban and industrial soils in Alcalá de Henares (Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peña-Fernández, A.; Lobo-Bedmar, M.C.; González-Muñoz, M.J.

    2015-01-01

    Contamination of urban and industrial soils with trace metals has been recognized as a major concern at local, regional and global levels due to their implication on human health. In this study, concentrations of aluminum (Al), arsenic (As), beryllium (Be), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), tin (Sn), thallium (Tl), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn) were determined in soil samples collected in Alcalá de Henares (Madrid, Spain) in order to evaluate the annual and seasonal variation in their levels. The results show that the soils of the industrial area have higher metals concentrations than the urban area. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the two principal sources of trace metal contamination, especially Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in the urban soils of Alcalá can be attributed to traffic emissions, while As, Ni and Be primarily originated from industrial discharges. The seasonal variation analysis has revealed that the emission sources in the industrial area remain constant with time. However, in urban areas, both emissions and emission pathways significantly increase over time due to ongoing development. Currently, there is no hypothesis that explains the small seasonal fluctuations of trace metals in soils, since there are many factors affecting this. Owing to the fact that urban environments are becoming the human habitat, it would therefore be advisable to monitor metals and metalloids in urban soils because of the potential risks to human health. - Highlights: • Anthropogenic activities may affect the seasonal metal variation in Alcalá's soils. • Weather characteristics may also influence the seasonal metal variation in soils. • Alcalá's continual urban growth may have increased the levels of metals in its soils. • Metal variability in Alcalá's industrial soils might be dependent on their sources. • High soil metal content might make it difficult to identify temporal variation

  10. Annual and seasonal variability of metals and metalloids in urban and industrial soils in Alcalá de Henares (Spain)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peña-Fernández, A. [Departamento de Ciencias Biomédicas, Unidad de Toxicología, Universidad de Alcalá, Crta. Madrid-Barcelona Km, 33.6, 28871 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid (Spain); Lobo-Bedmar, M.C. [Instituto Madrileño de Investigación y Desarrollo Rural Agrario y Alimentario (IMIDRA), Finca el Encín, Crta. Madrid-Barcelona Km, 38.2, 28800 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid (Spain); González-Muñoz, M.J., E-mail: mariajose.gonzalez@uah.es [Departamento de Ciencias Biomédicas, Unidad de Toxicología, Universidad de Alcalá, Crta. Madrid-Barcelona Km, 33.6, 28871 Alcalá de Henares, Madrid (Spain)

    2015-01-15

    Contamination of urban and industrial soils with trace metals has been recognized as a major concern at local, regional and global levels due to their implication on human health. In this study, concentrations of aluminum (Al), arsenic (As), beryllium (Be), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni), lead (Pb), tin (Sn), thallium (Tl), vanadium (V) and zinc (Zn) were determined in soil samples collected in Alcalá de Henares (Madrid, Spain) in order to evaluate the annual and seasonal variation in their levels. The results show that the soils of the industrial area have higher metals concentrations than the urban area. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed that the two principal sources of trace metal contamination, especially Cd, Cu, Pb, and Zn in the urban soils of Alcalá can be attributed to traffic emissions, while As, Ni and Be primarily originated from industrial discharges. The seasonal variation analysis has revealed that the emission sources in the industrial area remain constant with time. However, in urban areas, both emissions and emission pathways significantly increase over time due to ongoing development. Currently, there is no hypothesis that explains the small seasonal fluctuations of trace metals in soils, since there are many factors affecting this. Owing to the fact that urban environments are becoming the human habitat, it would therefore be advisable to monitor metals and metalloids in urban soils because of the potential risks to human health. - Highlights: • Anthropogenic activities may affect the seasonal metal variation in Alcalá's soils. • Weather characteristics may also influence the seasonal metal variation in soils. • Alcalá's continual urban growth may have increased the levels of metals in its soils. • Metal variability in Alcalá's industrial soils might be dependent on their sources. • High soil metal content might make it difficult to identify temporal variation.

  11. Phytoplankton biomass and microbial abundances during the spring upwelling season in the coastal area off Concepción, central-southern Chile: Variability around a time series station

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Carmen E.; Anabalón, Valeria

    2012-01-01

    In the coastal system off Concepción, time series observations at a fixed station (St. 18) have shown strong seasonal changes in the oceanographic environment of the upper layer (blooms, dominated by microplanktonic diatoms, have usually overshadowed the relevance of the smaller microbial components during upwelling. This study focuses on the variability of oceanographic conditions and their association with the structure of the planktonic community (size fractionated chlorophyll-a and microbial abundances) in the upper layer during the upwelling season, examining the extent to which St. 18 is representative of the coastal system off Concepción during springtime. For this purpose, data from three consecutive springs (2004, 2005, 2006) were compared, which included cruises for all years (8 stations around St. 18) as well as monthly sampling at St. 18. Most of the spatial (submesoscale) variability in chlorophyll-a and the microbial components was not significant, but data dispersion around mean values was high. Water column structure (temperature and salinity) in the upper layer explained a significant fraction (25-65%) of the spatial variability in most of the planktonic components; their responses to oceanographic variability were linear in some cases and non-linear in others. For the most part, St. 18 appears to adequately represent mean oceanographic conditions and the structure of planktonic communities in the coastal waters off Concepción during springtime, however spatial variability needs to be taken into account in the interpretations of temporal changes at this fixed station as well as in assessments of carbon flow within, and exportation processes from, this upwelling system.

  12. Seasonal Forecast Skill And Teleconnections Over East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D.; Palmer, T.

    2017-12-01

    Many people living in East Africa are significantly exposed to risks arising from climate variability. The region experiences two rainy seasons and poor performance of either or both of these (such as seen recently in 2016/17) reduces agricultural productivity and threatens food security. In combination with other factors this can lead to famine. By utilizing seasonal climate forecasts, preparatory actions can be taken in order to mitigate the risks arising from such climate variability. As part of the project ForPAc: "Towards forecast-based preparedness action", we are working with humanitarian agencies in Kenya to build such early warning systems on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. Here, the seasonal predictability and forecast skill of the two East African rainy seasons will be presented. Results from the new ECMWF operational forecasting system SEAS5 will be shown and compared to the previous System 4. Analysis of a new 110 year long atmosphere-only simulation will also be discussed, demonstrating impacts of atmosphere-ocean coupling as well as putting operational forecast skill in a long-term context. Particular focus will be given to the model representation of teleconnections of seasonal climate with global sea surface temperatures; highlighting sources of forecast error and informing future model development.

  13. Seasonal and interannual variability of solar radiation at Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity landing sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vicente-Retortillo, A.; Lemmon, M.T.; Martinez, G.; Valero, F.; Vazquez, L.; Martin, M.L.

    2016-01-01

    In this article we characterize the radiative environment at the landing sites of NASA's Mars Exploration Rover (MER) and Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) missions. We use opacity values obtained at the surface from direct imaging of the Sun and our radiative transfer model COMIMART to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of the daily irradiation at the MER and MSL landing sites. In addition, we analyze the behavior of the direct and diffuse components of the solar radiation at these landing sites. (Author)

  14. Variability of thermal and precipitation conditions in the growing season in Poland in the years 1966-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomczyk, Arkadiusz M.; Szyga-Pluta, Katarzyna

    2018-03-01

    The aim of the study was to identify the thermal and precipitation conditions and their changes in the growing season in Poland in the years 1966-2015. Data on average daily air temperature and daily precipitation totals for 30 stations from the period of 1966-2015 were used. The data were obtained from the collections of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management—National Research Institute. The growing season was defined as the period of average daily air temperature ≥ 5 °C. The mathematical formulas proposed by Gumiński (1948) were used to determine its start and end dates. In the growing season in Poland in the years 1966-2015, there were more significant changes in the thermal conditions than there were in the precipitation conditions. In terms of long-term trends over the study period, thermal conditions during the growing season are characterised by an increase in mean air temperature, an increase in the sum of air temperatures and an increasing occurrence of seasons classified as above-normal seasons. Precipitation conditions of the growing season show large temporal and spatial variations in precipitation and a predominance of normal conditions. The changes in precipitation were not statistically significant, except for Świnoujście.

  15. Climate variables as predictors for seasonal forecast of dengue occurrence in Chennai, Tamil Nadu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subash Kumar, D. D.; Andimuthu, R.

    2013-12-01

    Background Dengue is a recently emerging vector borne diseases in Chennai. As per the WHO report in 2011 dengue is one of eight climate sensitive disease of this century. Objective Therefore an attempt has been made to explore the influence of climate parameters on dengue occurrence and use for forecasting. Methodology Time series analysis has been applied to predict the number of dengue cases in Chennai, a metropolitan city which is the capital of Tamil Nadu, India. Cross correlation of the climate variables with dengue cases revealed that the most influential parameters were monthly relative humidity, minimum temperature at 4 months lag and rainfall at one month lag (Table 1). However due to intercorrelation of relative humidity and rainfall was high and therefore for predictive purpose the rainfall at one month lag was used for the model development. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been applied to forecast the occurrence of dengue. Results and Discussion The best fit model was ARIMA (1,0,1). It was seen that the monthly minimum temperature at four months lag (β= 3.612, p = 0.02) and rainfall at one month lag (β= 0.032, p = 0.017) were associated with dengue occurrence and they had a very significant effect. Mean Relative Humidity had a directly significant positive correlation at 99% confidence level, but the lagged effect was not prominent. The model predicted dengue cases showed significantly high correlation of 0.814(Figure 1) with the observed cases. The RMSE of the model was 18.564 and MAE was 12.114. The model is limited by the scarcity of the dataset. Inclusion of socioeconomic conditions and population offset are further needed to be incorporated for effective results. Conclusion Thus it could be claimed that the change in climatic parameters is definitely influential in increasing the number of dengue occurrence in Chennai. The climate variables therefore can be used for seasonal forecasting of dengue with rise in minimum

  16. Seasonal Overturning Circulation in the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, F.; Hoteit, I.; Koehl, A.

    2010-12-01

    The Red Sea exhibits a distinct seasonal overturning circulation. In winter, a typical two-layer exchange structure, with a fresher inflow from the Gulf of Aden on top of an outflow from the Red Sea, is established. In summer months (June to September) this circulation pattern is changed to a three-layer structure: a surface outflow from the Red Sea on top of a subsurface intrusion of the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water and a weakened deep outflow. This seasonal variability is studied using a general circulation model, MITgcm, with 6 hourly NCEP atmospheric forcing. The model is able to reproduce the observed seasonal variability very well. The forcing mechanisms of the seasonal variability related to seasonal surface wind stress and buoyancy flux, and water mass transformation processes associated with the seasonal overturning circulation are analyzed and presented.

  17. Carbon dioxide exchange in three tundra sites show a dissimilar response to environmental variables

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbufong, Herbert Njuabe; Lund, Magnus; Christensen, Torben Røjle

    2015-01-01

    variability. An improved understanding of the control of ancillary variables on net ecosystem exchange (NEE), gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (Re) will improve the accuracy with which CO2 exchange seasonality in Arctic tundra ecosystems is modelled. Fluxes were measured with the eddy...... Lake. Growing season NEE correlated mainly to cumulative radiation and temperature-related variables at Zackenberg, while at Daring Lake the same variables showed significant correlations with the partitioned fluxes (GPP and Re). Stordalen was temperature dependent during the growing season. This study...

  18. Seasonality of alcohol-related phenomena in Estonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silm, Siiri; Ahas, Rein

    2005-03-01

    We studied alcohol consumption and its consequences as a seasonal phenomenon in Estonia and analysed the social and environmental factors that may cause its seasonal rhythm. There are two important questions when researching the seasonality of human activities: (1) whether it is caused by natural or social factors, and (2) whether the impact of the factors is direct or indirect. Often the seasonality of social phenomena is caused by social factors, but the triggering mechanisms are related to environmental factors like temperature, precipitation, and radiation via the circannual calendar. The indicators of alcohol consumption in the current paper are grouped as: (1) pre-consumption phenomena, i.e. production, tax and excise, sales (beer, wine and vodka are analysed separately), and (2) post-consumption phenomena, i.e. alcohol-related crime and traffic accidents and the number of people detained in lockups and admitted to alcohol treatment clinics. In addition, seasonal variability in the amount of alcohol advertising has been studied, and a survey has been carried out among 87 students of Tartu University. The analysis shows that different phenomena related to alcohol have a clear seasonal rhythm in Estonia. The peak period of phenomena related to beer is in the summer, from June to August and the low point is during the first months of the year. Beer consumption correlates well with air temperature. The consumption of vodka increases sharply at the end of the year and in June; the production of vodka does not have a significant correlation with negative temperatures. The consumption of wine increases during summer and in December. The consequences of alcohol consumption, expressed as the rate of traffic accidents or the frequency of medical treatment, also show seasonal variability. Seasonal variability of alcohol consumption in Estonia is influenced by natural factors (temperature, humidity, etc.) and by social factors (celebrations, vacations, etc.). However

  19. Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

    2012-12-01

    International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

  20. Seasonal variability in virtual height of ionospheric f/sub 2/ layer at the pakistan atmospheric region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jilani, A.A.; Afridi, F.A.K.; Mian, K.; Zai, M.A.K.Y.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the seasonal variability in virtual height of ionospheric F/sub 2/ layer for Pakistan's atmospheric region (PAR). In this communication virtual height variations have been analyzed by the descriptive statistical techniques. These methodologies comprise an autoregressive strategy, linear regression and polynomial regression. The relevance of these models has been illuminated using predicted values of different parameters under the seasonal variation of ionospheric F/sub 2/ layer in virtual height that affect the radio wave propagation through the ionosphere. These techniques are implemented to theorize the physical process of varying the virtual heights that leads this study towards formulating the variations due to interaction of radio wave propagation with this ionospheric layer. (author)

  1. Seasonal and interannual variability of the water exchange in the Turkish Straits System estimated by modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. MADERICH

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available A chain of simple linked models is used to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of the Turkish Straits System. This chain includes two-layer hydraulic models of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits simulating the exchange in terms of level and density difference along each strait, and a one-dimensional area averaged layered model of the Marmara Sea. The chain of models is complemented also by the similar layered model of the Black Sea proper and by a one-layer Azov Sea model with the Kerch Strait. This linked chain of models is used to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the system in the period 1970-2009. The salinity of the Black Sea water flowing into the Aegean Sea increases by approximately 1.7 times through entrainment from the lower layer. The flow entering into the lower layer of the Dardanelles Strait from the Aegean Sea is reduced by nearly 80% when it reaches the Black Sea. In the seasonal scale, a maximal transport in the upper layer and minimal transport in the bottom layer are during winter/spring for the Bosphorus and in spring for the Dardanelles Strait, whereas minimal transport in upper layer and maximal undercurrent are during the summer for the Bosphorus Strait and autumn for the Dardanelles Strait. The increase of freshwater flux into the Black Sea in interannual time scales (41 m3s-1 per year is accompanied by a more than twofold growth of the Dardanelles outflow to the North Aegean (102 m3s-1 per year.

  2. Seasonal and interannual variability of solar radiation at Spirit, Opportunity and Curiosity landing sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vicente-Retortillo, A.; Lemmon, M.T.; Martinez, G.; Valero, F.; Vazquez, L.; Martin, M.L.

    2016-07-01

    In this article we characterize the radiative environment at the landing sites of NASA's Mars Exploration Rover (MER) and Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) missions. We use opacity values obtained at the surface from direct imaging of the Sun and our radiative transfer model COMIMART to analyze the seasonal and interannual variability of the daily irradiation at the MER and MSL landing sites. In addition, we analyze the behavior of the direct and diffuse components of the solar radiation at these landing sites. (Author)

  3. Performance of Sorghum Varieties under Variable Rainfall in Central Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Msongaleli, Barnabas M; Tumbo, S D; Kihupi, N I; Rwehumbiza, Filbert B

    2017-01-01

    Rainfall variability has a significant impact on crop production with manifestations in frequent crop failure in semiarid areas. This study used the parameterized APSIM crop model to investigate how rainfall variability may affect yields of improved sorghum varieties based on long-term historical rainfall and projected climate. Analyses of historical rainfall indicate a mix of nonsignificant and significant trends on the onset, cessation, and length of the growing season. The study confirmed that rainfall variability indeed affects yields of improved sorghum varieties. Further analyses of simulated sorghum yields based on seasonal rainfall distribution indicate the concurrence of lower grain yields with the 10-day dry spells during the cropping season. Simulation results for future sorghum response, however, show that impacts of rainfall variability on sorghum will be overridden by temperature increase. We conclude that, in the event where harms imposed by moisture stress in the study area are not abated, even improved sorghum varieties are likely to perform poorly.

  4. Modeling seasonality in bimonthly time series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractA recurring issue in modeling seasonal time series variables is the choice of the most adequate model for the seasonal movements. One selection method for quarterly data is proposed in Hylleberg et al. (1990). Market response models are often constructed for bimonthly variables, and

  5. Seasonal hypoxia in eutrophic stratified coastal shelves: mechanisms, sensibilities and interannual variability from the North-Western Black Sea case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capet, A.; Beckers, J.-M.; Grégoire, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Black Sea north-western shelf (NWS) is a~shallow eutrophic area in which seasonal stratification of the water column isolates bottom waters from the atmosphere and prevents ventilation to compensate for the large consumption of oxygen, due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments. A 3-D coupled physical biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS at different temporal scales from seasonal to interannual (1981-2009) and to differentiate the driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication) of hypoxic conditions in bottom waters. Model skills are evaluated by comparison with 14 500 in-situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean Database and the Black Sea Commission data. The choice of skill metrics and data subselections orientate the validation procedure towards specific aspects of the oxygen dynamics, and prove the model's ability to resolve the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of oxygen concentration as well as the spatial location of the oxygen depleted waters and the specific threshold of hypoxia. During the period 1981-2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS, receiving large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniestr and Dniepr rivers, and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian Bay of Constanta. In order to explain the interannual variability of bottom hypoxia and to disentangle its drivers, a statistical model (multiple linear regression) is proposed using the long time series of model results as input variables. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate related variables. The use of four predictors allows to reproduce 78% of hypoxia interannual variability: the annual nitrate discharge (N), the sea surface temperature in the month preceding stratification (T), the

  6. Permafrost hydrology in changing climatic conditions: seasonal variability of stable isotope composition in rivers in discontinuous permafrost

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streletskiy, Dmitry A; Shiklomanov, Nikolay I; Nyland, Kelsey E; Tananaev, Nikita I; Opel, Thomas; Streletskaya, Irina D; Tokarev, Igor’; Shiklomanov, Alexandr I

    2015-01-01

    Role of changing climatic conditions on permafrost degradation and hydrology was investigated in the transition zone between the tundra and forest ecotones at the boundary of continuous and discontinuous permafrost of the lower Yenisei River. Three watersheds of various sizes were chosen to represent the characteristics of the regional landscape conditions. Samples of river flow, precipitation, snow cover, and permafrost ground ice were collected over the watersheds to determine isotopic composition of potential sources of water in a river flow over a two year period. Increases in air temperature over the last forty years have resulted in permafrost degradation and a decrease in the seasonal frost which is evident from soil temperature measurements, permafrost and active-layer monitoring, and analysis of satellite imagery. The lowering of the permafrost table has led to an increased storage capacity of permafrost affected soils and a higher contribution of ground water to river discharge during winter months. A progressive decrease in the thickness of the layer of seasonal freezing allows more water storage and pathways for water during the winter low period making winter discharge dependent on the timing and amount of late summer precipitation. There is a substantial seasonal variability of stable isotopic composition of river flow. Spring flooding corresponds to the isotopic composition of snow cover prior to the snowmelt. Isotopic composition of river flow during the summer period follows the variability of precipitation in smaller creeks, while the water flow of larger watersheds is influenced by the secondary evaporation of water temporarily stored in thermokarst lakes and bogs. Late summer precipitation determines the isotopic composition of texture ice within the active layer in tundra landscapes and the seasonal freezing layer in forested landscapes as well as the composition of the water flow during winter months. (letter)

  7. Regional seasonal warming anomalies and land-surface feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R. M.

    2017-12-01

    Significant seasonal variations in warming are projected in some regions, especially central Europe, the southeastern U.S., and central South America. Europe in particular may experience up to 2°C more warming during June, July, and August than in the annual mean, enhancing the risk of extreme summertime heat. Previous research has shown that heat waves in Europe and other regions are tied to seasonal soil moisture variations, and that in general land-surface feedbacks have a strong effect on seasonal temperature anomalies. In this study, we show that the seasonal anomalies in warming are also due in part to land-surface feedbacks. We find that in regions with amplified warming during the hot season, surface soil moisture levels generally decline and Bowen ratios increase as a result of a preferential partitioning of incoming energy into sensible vs. latent. The CMIP5 model suite shows significant variability in the strength of land-atmosphere coupling and in projections of future precipitation and soil moisture. Due to the dependence of seasonal warming on land-surface processes, these inter-model variations influence the projected summertime warming amplification and contribute to the uncertainty in projections of future extreme heat.

  8. Measurement of the 36Cl deposition flux in central Japan: natural background levels and seasonal variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tosaki, Yuki; Tase, Norio; Sasa, Kimikazu; Takahashi, Tsutomu; Nagashima, Yasuo

    2012-01-01

    Essential parameters for the applications of 36 Cl as a tracer in groundwater studies include the initial 36 Cl/Cl ratio, at the time of recharge, and/or the natural background deposition flux of 36 Cl in the recharge area. To facilitate the hydrological use of 36 Cl in central Japan, this study aimed to obtain a precise estimate of the long-term average local 36 Cl flux and to characterize its seasonal variability. The 36 Cl in precipitation was continuously monitored in Tsukuba, central Japan over a period of >5 years. The 36 Cl flux showed a clear seasonal variation with an annual peak during the spring, which was attributed to the seasonal variability of tropopause height. The long-term average 36 Cl flux (32 ± 2 atoms m −2 s −1 ), estimated from the measured data, was consistent with the prediction from the 36 Cl latitudinal fallout model scaled using the global mean production rate of 20 atoms m −2 s −1 . The initial 36 Cl/Cl ratio was estimated to be (41 ± 6) × 10 −15 , which is similar to that of pre-bomb groundwater in the Tsukuba Upland. An observation period covering an 11-year solar cycle would yield more accurate estimates of the values, given the increased 36 Cl flux during the solar minimum. - Highlights: ► We monitored 36 Cl in precipitation in central Japan over a period of >5 years. ► The 36 Cl flux varied seasonally, with a peak in spring. ► The long-term average 36 Cl flux and the initial 36 Cl/Cl ratio were 32 ± 2 atoms m −2 s −1 and (41 ± 6) × 10 −15 , respectively. ► An observation period covering an 11-year solar cycle would yield more accurate estimates of the values, given the increased 36 Cl flux during the solar minimum.

  9. A Survey of Spatial and Seasonal Water Isotope Variability on the Juneau Icefield, Alaksa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennis, D.; Carter, A.; Clinger, A. E.; Eads, O. L.; Gotwals, S.; Gunderson, J.; Hollyday, A. E.; Klein, E. S.; Markle, B. R.; Timms, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    The depletion of stable oxygen-hydrogen isotopes (δ18O and δH) is well correlated with temperature change, which is driven by variation in topography, climate, and atmospheric circulation. This study presents a survey of the spatial and seasonal variability of isotopic signatures on the Juneau Icefield (JI), Alaska, USA which spans over 3,000 square-kilometers. To examine small scale variability in the previous year's accumulation, samples were taken at regular intervals from snow pits and a one square-kilometer surficial grid. Surface snow samples were collected across the icefield to evaluate large scale variability, ranging approximately 1,000 meters in elevation and 100 kilometers in distance. Individual precipitation events were also sampled to track percolation throughout the snowpack and temperature correlations. A survey of this extent has never been undertaken on the JI. Samples were analyzed in the field using a Los Gatos laser isotope analyzer. This survey helps us better understand isotope fractionation on temperate glaciers in coastal environments and provides preliminary information on the suitability of the JI for a future ice core drilling project.

  10. Seasonal and tidal influence on the variability of nitrous oxide in the Tagus estuary, Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Célia Gonçalves

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available In order to evaluate seasonal and tidal influence on the variability of dissolved nitrous oxide (N2O in the Tagus estuary, Portugal, water sampling was carried out along the salinity gradient (May and November 2006 and during several tidal cycles (February and April 2007 at a fixed site. N2O and other relevant environmental parameters, temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and inorganic nitrogen forms (nitrate, nitrite and ammonium were measured. Dissolved N2O concentrations showed strong tidal and seasonal variability, with the highest values occurring in February 2007 (13.7 nM, spring tide and November 2006 (18.4 nM, upper estuary, apparently related to major Tagus river discharge. The existence of N2O sources was noticed in middle estuary. During spring tide, the input from external sources may be augmented by water column nitrification, making this process a contributor to the enhancement of N2O concentration in the estuary. Estimated N2O air-sea fluxes to the atmosphere reached a maximum value of ~10.4 μmol m-2 d-1 in February 2007 during spring tide and in May 2006 in the upper and lower (left bank estuary. Although the Tagus estuary behaves predominantly as a source of atmospheric N2O, it appears to be a weaker source than other, more eutrophic estuaries.

  11. Seasonal and spatial variability of major organic contaminants in solution and suspension of the Pomeranian Bight

    OpenAIRE

    Graeve, Martin; Wodarg, Dirk

    2003-01-01

    Studies of hexachlorocyclohexane-isomers (HCHs) and selected triazine herbicides in solution and suspension were carried out in the Pomeranian Bight in 1995. The concentrations of HCHs and triazines were determined by gas-liquid chromatography (GC) or by GC in connection with quadrupole mass spectrometry(GC/MS). Particulate and dissolved material were separated by means of an in-situ filtration/extraction system. The seasonal variability and regional distribution of the various component...

  12. Global distribution and seasonal variability of coastal low-level jets derived from ERA-Interim reanalysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raza Ranjha

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available A low-level wind maximum is often found over the oceans near many coasts around the world. These Coastal Low-Level Jets (CLLJs play an important role in the coastal weather and have significant impacts on regional climate and ecology as well as on a number of human activities. The presence of CLLJs is related to various local circumstances such as land-sea temperature contrasts, upwelling, coastal terrain, orientation of the coast, and so on, but also to the large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This makes studies of CLLJs not only interesting but also challenging. In this study, based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data, the global distribution, spatio-temporal structure and the seasonal variability of CLLJs are documented. Seasonal data from 1980 to 2011 are used to identify areas where CLLJs are frequently found in the lowest 2 km, following criteria based on the vertical profiles of wind speed and temperature. The results are analysed to highlight the fundamental aspects and distinctive features of the CLLJs across the globe, including their occurrence rate, jet height, maximum wind speed and horizontal extent. Global maps of CLLJs are constructed for the summer and winter seasons. The west coasts of North America, the Iberian Peninsula, north-western Africa and the south-eastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula make up the Northern Hemispheric CLLJ regions, while the west coasts of South America, Australia, and southern Africa comprise the South Hemispheric equivalents. The existence and characteristics of CLLJs along the southern coast of Oman and the western coast of the Iberian Peninsula regions are also discussed, not fully envisaged before in the context of CLLJs. The highest occurrence of CLLJs is found during the summer in both hemispheres, and the coast of Oman has the globally highest CLLJ frequency, with also the highest maximum wind speeds. The most commonly found CLLJ has a maximum wind speed between 9 and 15 m s−1, and occurs at

  13. Spatial and seasonal variability of trace-element concentrations in sediments from the Santos-Cubatao estuarine system, Sao Paulo, Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luiz-Silva, Wanilson; Matos, Rosa Helena Ribeiro; Kristosch, Giane Chaves; Machado, Wilson

    2006-01-01

    Multi-element analyses of sediment samples from the Santos-Cubatao Estuarine System were carried out to investigate the spatial and seasonal variability of trace-element concentrations. The study area contains a rich mangrove ecosystem that is a habitat for tens of thousands of resident and migratory birds, some of them endangered globally. Enrichments of metals in fine-grained surface sediments are, in decreasing order, Hg, Mn, La, Ca, Sr, Cd, Zn, Pb, Ba, Cu, Cr, Fe, Nb, Y, Ni and Ga, relative to pre-industrial background levels. The maximum enrichment ranged from 49 (Hg) to 3.1 (Ga). Mercury concentrations were greater in the Cubatao river than in other sites, while the other elements showed greater concentrations in the Morrao river. Concentrations of Mn were significantly greater in winter and autumn than in summer and spring. However, other elements (e.g. Cd and Pb) showed the opposite, with greater concentrations in summer and spring. This study suggests that seasonal changes in physical and chemical conditions may affect the degree of sediment enrichment and therefore make the assessment of contamination difficult. Consequently, these processes need to be considered when assessing water quality and the potential contamination of biota.(author)

  14. Timing of floods in southeastern China: Seasonal properties and potential causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qiang; Gu, Xihui; Singh, Vijay P.; Shi, Peijun; Luo, Ming

    2017-09-01

    Flood hazards and flood risks in southeastern China have been causing increasing concerns due to dense population and highly-developed economy. This study attempted to address changes of seasonality, timing of peak floods and variability of occurrence date of peak floods using circular statistical methods and the modified Mann-Kendall trend detection method. The causes of peak flood changes were also investigated. Results indicated that: (1) floods were subject to more seasonality and temporal clustering when compared to precipitation extremes. However, seasonality of floods and extreme precipitation was subject to spatial heterogeneity in northern Guangdong. Similar changing patterns of peak floods and extreme precipitation were found in coastal regions; (2) significant increasing/decreasing seasonality, but no confirmed spatial patterns, were observed for peak floods and extreme precipitation. Peak floods in northern Guangdong province had decreasing variability, but had larger variability in coastal regions; (3) tropical cyclones had remarkable impacts on extreme precipitation changes in coastal regions of southeastern China, and peak floods as well. The landfalling of tropical cyclones was decreasing and concentrated during June-September; this is the major reason for earlier but enhanced seasonality of peak floods in coastal regions. This study sheds new light on flood behavior in coastal regions in a changing environment.

  15. Biophysical drivers of seasonal variability in Sphagnum gross primary production in a northern temperate bog

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Anthony P.; Carter, Kelsey R.; Gu, Lianhong; Hanson, Paul J.; Malhotra, Avni; Norby, Richard J.; Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Wullschleger, Stan D.; Weston, David J.

    2017-05-01

    Sphagnum mosses are the keystone species of peatland ecosystems. With rapid rates of climate change occurring in high latitudes, vast reservoirs of carbon accumulated over millennia in peatland ecosystems are potentially vulnerable to rising temperature and changing precipitation. We investigate the seasonal drivers of Sphagnum gross primary production (GPP)—the entry point of carbon into wetland ecosystems. Continuous flux measurements and flux partitioning show a seasonal cycle of Sphagnum GPP that peaked in the late summer, well after the peak in photosynthetically active radiation. Wavelet analysis showed that water table height was the key driver of weekly variation in Sphagnum GPP in the early summer and that temperature was the primary driver of GPP in the late summer and autumn. Flux partitioning and a process-based model of Sphagnum photosynthesis demonstrated the likelihood of seasonally dynamic maximum rates of photosynthesis and a logistic relationship between the water table and photosynthesizing tissue area when the water table was at the Sphagnum surface. The model also suggested that variability in internal resistance to CO2 transport, a function of Sphagnum water content, had minimal effect on GPP. To accurately model Sphagnum GPP, we recommend the following: (1) understanding seasonal photosynthetic trait variation and its triggers in Sphagnum; (2) characterizing the interaction of Sphagnum photosynthesizing tissue area with water table height; (3) modeling Sphagnum as a "soil" layer for consistent simulation of water dynamics; and (4) measurement of Sphagnum "canopy" properties: extinction coefficient (k), clumping (Ω), and maximum stem area index (SAI).

  16. Drivers of Intra-Summer Seasonality and Daily Variability of Coastal Low Cloudiness in California Subregions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, R. E.; Iacobellis, S.; Gershunov, A.; Williams, P.; Cayan, D. R.

    2014-12-01

    Summertime low cloud intrusion into the terrestrial west coast of North America impacts human, ecological, and logistical systems. Over a broad region of the West Coast, summer (May - September) coastal low cloudiness (CLC) varies coherently on interannual to interdecadal timescales and has been found to be organized by North Pacific sea surface temperature. Broad-scale studies of low stratiform cloudiness over ocean basins also find that the season of maximum low stratus corresponds to the season of maximum lower tropospheric stability (LTS) or estimated inversion strength. We utilize a 18-summer record of CLC derived from NASA/NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) at 4km resolution over California (CA) to make a more nuanced spatial and temporal examination of intra-summer variability in CLC and its drivers. We find that uniform spatial coherency over CA is not apparent for intra-summer variability in CLC. On monthly to daily timescales, at least two distinct subregions of coastal California (CA) can be identified, where relationships between meteorology and stratus variability appear to change throughout summer in each subregion. While north of Point Conception and offshore the timing of maximum CLC is closely coincident with maximum LTS, in the Southern CA Bight and northern Baja region, maximum CLC occurs up to about a month before maximum LTS. It appears that summertime CLC in this southern region is not as strongly related as in the northern region to LTS. In particular, although the relationship is strong in May and June, starting in July the daily relationship between LTS and CLC in the south begins to deteriorate. Preliminary results indicate a moderate association between decreased CLC in the south and increased precipitable water content above 850 hPa on daily time scales beginning in July. Relationships between daily CLC variability and meteorological variables including winds, inland temperatures, relative humidity, and

  17. Seasonal variability in 7Be depositional fluxes at Granada, Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Gomez, C.; Azahra, M.; Lopez-Penalver, J.J.; Camacho-Garcia, A.; Bardouni, T.El.; Boukhal, H.

    2006-01-01

    Measurement of 7 Be depositional fluxes at Granada, Spain (37 o 10'50''N-3 o 35'44''W, altitude 670 m) in the period 1995 through 1998 indicates substantial variations between the four seasons and also between corresponding seasons in different years, ranging from 23.6 to 242 Bq m -2 per season. A strongly positive correlation with precipitation is shown, which explains about 70% of the variations in the 7 Be depositional fluxes over the 16 seasons studied. The depositional 7 Be flux is on the average highest in the fall and lowest in the summer. The study shows that precipitation primarily controls the 7 Be depositional flux and plays a dominant role in the removal of 7 Be from the troposphere. The average annual 7 Be depositional flux at Granada amounts to 469+145 Bq m -2

  18. Seasonal variability of the diapycnal mixing in the Canary Islands channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Santana, Angel; Marrero-Díaz, Angeles; Machín, Francisco Jose; García-Weil, Luis; Sangrà, Pablo; Vélez-Belchí, Pedro; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; Estrada-Allis, Sheila

    2014-05-01

    Trimonthly surveys of XBT and XCTD (Expandable Bathytermograph and Conductivity-Temperature-Depth) crossing the whole Canary Islands channels were carried out (projects TRAMIC and PROMECA) from November 2012 until September 2013 using opportunity ships (Naviera Armas Ferries). With this data set and using salinity analytical relationships (Machín et al, 2010), vertical sections of temperature and potential density were obtained for each channel and season. In order to estimate the intensity of the diapycnal mixing in the first 500 m of the pycnocline, vertical sections of Thorpe length scale, Turner angle and gradient Richardson number (from the geostrophic vertical shear) were calculated for all the cases. The first results show how the diapycnal mixing due to the vertical shear instabilities is more intense close to the islands and in summer when the seasonal pycnocline is present. Mixing due to double diffusion processes (salt fingers) was found without sizable changes in the permanent pycnocline. Net turbulence diffusivities and diapycnal diffusive fluxes with their variability spatial and temporal will be estimate for each channel taking into account that processes of double diffusion and turbulence induced by vertical shear are present at the same time. Additionally the results obtained from hydrographic data from the cruise RAPROCAN-2013 (IEO) (October 2013) around Canary Islands will be used to compare them with the channels results. This work was co-funded by Canary Government (TRAMIC project: PROID20100092), European Union (FEDER) and Spanish Government (PROMECA: CTM2008-04057/MAR and CTM2009-06993-E/MAR)

  19. Seasonal variability in physicochemical characteristics of small water bodies across a High Arctic wetland, Polar Bear Pass, Bathurst Island, Nunavut, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abnizova, A.; Miller, E.; Shakil, S.; Young, K. L.

    2012-12-01

    Small water bodies (lakes, ponds) in permafrost environments make up roughly half of the total area of surface water, but their relevance to nutrient and carbon fluxes on a landscape scale still remains largely unknown. Small variations in pond water balance as a result of seasonal changes in precipitation, evaporation, or drainage processes have the potential to produce considerable changes in the carbon and nutrient budgets as small changes in the water level can have a major effect on volumes and surface areas of ponds. The aims of this study were (1) to identify the main characteristics in pond hydrology both seasonally and between years; (2) to identify factors controlling variation in measured physicochemical variables; and (3) to detect seasonal trends in the hydrological and chemical characteristics of ponds located in an extensive low-gradient High Arctic wetland. We conducted detailed limnological surveys of 50 wetland ponds located at Polar Bear Pass (PBP), Bathurst Island, Nunavut, Canada during 2007-2010. The results indicate large seasonal variability in physicochemical parameters that is associated with pond water budget changes, especially for ponds with steady water levels vs. dynamic ponds (fluctuating water levels). Principal component analysis (PCA) of the datasets indicated that major ion content, specifically calcium (Ca2+), was responsible for much of the variability among the ponds in both 2008 and 2009. Additionally in 2009 most of the variability was also due to specific conductivity in the summer and magnesium (Mg2+) in the fall. These trends are typically identified as a result of dilution or evapo-concentration processes in small water bodies. In 2007, a warm and dry year, pH and potassium (K+) were responsible for much of variation between ponds. This is attributed to high vegetation growth in ponds and a longer growing season. While no trend was identified in 2010 (PCA analysis), calculations of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 50

  20. [Variability of vegetation growth season in different latitudinal zones of North China: a monitoring by NOAA NDVI and MSAVI].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hong; Li, Xiaobing; Han, Ruibo; Ge, Yongqin

    2006-12-01

    In this study, North China was latitudinally divided into five zones, i.e., 32 degrees - 36 degrees N (Zone I), 36 degrees - 40 degrees N (Zone II), 40 degrees - 44 degrees N (Zone III), 44 degrees - 48 degrees N (Zone IV) and 48 degrees - 52 degrees N (Zone V), and the NOAA/ AVHRR NDVI and MSAVI time-series images from 1982 to 1999 were smoothed with Savitzky-Golay filter algorithm. Based on the EOF analysis, the principal components of NDVI and MSAVI for the vegetations in different latitudinal zones of North China were extracted, the annual beginning and ending dates and the length of growth season in 1982 - 1999 were estimated, and the related parameters were linearly fitted, aimed to analyze the variability of vegetation growth season. The results showed that the beginning date of the growth season in different zones tended to be advanced, while the ending date tended to be postponed with increasing latitude. The length of the growth season was also prolonged, with the prolonging time exceeded 10 days.

  1. Runoff Variability in the Scott River (SW Spitsbergen in Summer Seasons 2012–2013 in Comparison with the Period 1986–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franczak Łukasz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available River runoff variability in the Scott River catchment in the summer seasons 2012 and 2013 has been presented in comparison to the multiannual river runoff in 1986–2009. Both in particular seasons and in the analysed multiannual, high variability of discharge rate was recorded. In the research periods 2012–2013, a total of 11 952 water stages and 20 flow rates were measured in the analysed cross-section for the determination of 83 daylong discharges. The mean multiannual discharge of the Scott River amounted to 0.96 m3·s−1. The value corresponds to a specific runoff of 94.6 dm3·s−1·km2, and the runoff layer 937 mm. The maximum values of daily discharge amounted to 5.07 m3·s−1, and the minimum values to 0.002 m3·s−1. The highest runoff occurs in the second and third decade of July, and in the first and second decade of August. The regime of the river is determined by a group of factors, and particularly meteorological conditions affecting the intensity of ablation, and consequently river runoff volume. We found a significant correlation (0.60 in 2012 and 0.67 in 2013 between the air temperature and the Scott River discharge related to the Scott Glacier ice melt.

  2. Seasonal and interannual variability of carbon dioxide and water balances of a grassland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, A.F.G.; Heusinkveld, B.G.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    There is great international concern over the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide and its effect on vegetation and climate, and vice versa. Many studies on this issue are based on climate model calculations or indirect satellite observations. In contrast we present a 12-year study (1994-2005) on the net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide (NEE) and precipitation surplus (i.e., precipitation-evaporation) of a grassland area in the centre of the Netherlands. On basis of direct flux observations and a process-based model we study and quantify the carbon uptake via assimilation and carbon release via soil and plant respiration. It appears that nearly year-round the assimilation term dominates, which indicates an accumulation of carbon dioxide. The mean net carbon uptake for the 12-year period is about 3 tonnes C per hectare, but with a strong seasonal and interannual variability depending on the weather and water budget. This variability may severely hamper the accurate quantification of carbon storage by vegetation in our present climates and its projection for future climates

  3. Seasonal variation in haematological and biochemical variables in free-ranging subadult brown bears (Ursus arctos) in Sweden.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Græsli, Anne Randi; Evans, Alina L; Fahlman, Åsa; Bertelsen, Mads F; Blanc, Stéphane; Arnemo, Jon M

    2015-12-08

    Free-ranging brown bears exhibit highly contrasting physiological states throughout the year. They hibernate 6 months of the year, experiencing a decrease in body temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate and metabolism. An increase in food consumption and the resulting weight gain (mostly through fat storage) prior to hibernation are also part of the brown bear's annual cycle. Due to these physiological changes, haematological and biochemical variables vary dramatically throughout the year. Seasonal changes in 12 haematological and 34 biochemical variables were evaluated in blood samples collected from 40 free-ranging subadult brown bears (22 females, 18 males) immobilised in Sweden in winter (February-March), spring (April-May), and summer (June). Higher levels of haemoglobin, haematocrit and red blood cell count, and a lower white blood cell count and mean cell volume was found during hibernation than in spring and summer. Lower values of the enzymes; aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alanine transaminase (ALT), alkaline phosphatase (AP), γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), glutamate dehydrogenase (GD) and amylase, and increased values of β-hydroxybutyrate (β-HBA) and blood lipids; triglycerides, cholesterol and free fatty acids, were present during hibernation compared to spring and summer. This study documents significant shifts in haematological and biochemical variables in samples collected from brown bears anaesthetised in winter (February-March) compared to in spring and summer (April-June), reflecting the lowered metabolic, renal and hepatic activity during hibernation. Lower values of enzymes and higher values of blood lipids during hibernation, likely reflect a lipid-based metabolism.

  4. Seasonality of dizziness and vertigo in a tropical region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Alcione Botelho; Almeida, Leonardo Alves Ferreira; Pereira, Nayara Gorette; Menezes, Patrícia Andrade Freitas de; Felipe, Lilian; Volpe, Fernando Madalena

    2015-06-01

    Vertigo and dizziness are among the most common medical complaints in the emergency room, and are associated with a considerable personal and health care burden. Scarce and conflicting reports indicate those symptoms may present a seasonal distribution. This study aimed at investigating the existence of a seasonal distribution of vertigo/dizziness in a tropical region, and the correlations of these findings with climatic variables. The charts of all patients consecutively admitted between 2009 and 2012 in the emergency room of a Brazilian general hospital were reviewed. A total of 4920 cases containing these terms were sorted from a sample of 276,076 emergency records. Seasonality was assessed using Cosinor Analysis. Pearson's correlations were performed between the incidence of consultations, considering separately dizziness and vertigo and each of the predictor climatic variables of that index month. Significant seasonal patterns were observed for dizziness and vertigo in the emergency room. Vertigo was more frequent in late winter-spring, negatively correlating to humidity (r = -0.374; p = 0.013) and rainfall (r = -0.334; p = 0.020). Dizziness peaked on summer months, and positively correlated to average temperatures (r = 0.520; p vertigo indicate possible distinct underlying mechanisms of how seasons may influence the occurrence of those symptoms.

  5. Variability of Neuronal Responses: Types and Functional Significance in Neuroplasticity and Neural Darwinism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chervyakov, Alexander V; Sinitsyn, Dmitry O; Piradov, Michael A

    2016-01-01

    HIGHLIGHTS We suggest classifying variability of neuronal responses as follows: false (associated with a lack of knowledge about the influential factors), "genuine harmful" (noise), "genuine neutral" (synonyms, repeats), and "genuine useful" (the basis of neuroplasticity and learning).The genuine neutral variability is considered in terms of the phenomenon of degeneracy.Of particular importance is the genuine useful variability that is considered as a potential basis for neuroplasticity and learning. This type of variability is considered in terms of the neural Darwinism theory. In many cases, neural signals detected under the same external experimental conditions significantly change from trial to trial. The variability phenomenon, which complicates extraction of reproducible results and is ignored in many studies by averaging, has attracted attention of researchers in recent years. In this paper, we classify possible types of variability based on its functional significance and describe features of each type. We describe the key adaptive significance of variability at the neural network level and the degeneracy phenomenon that may be important for learning processes in connection with the principle of neuronal group selection.

  6. Seasonal and interannual variability of the eastern boundary circulation and hydrography off Angola

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchipalanga, Pedro; Macuéria, Marissa; Dengler, Marcus; Ostrowski, Marek; Kopte, Robert; Brandt, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Coastal countries of southwest Africa strongly depend upon their ocean: societal development, fisheries, and tourism face important changes associated with climate variability and global change. As an example, Angolan fisheries are currently reporting reduced catches that may be associated to variability of the eastern boundary circulation and water masses along the Angolan continental margin. In an effort to enhance understanding of the seasonal and interannual variability of the boundary circulation and thermocline water masses and their relation to warm and cold events in South East Atlantic, existing in-situ observations from a multi-cruise program were analyzed. Repeated hydrography and ship-board ADCP measurements from the EAF - Nansen Project collected during the Austral summer and winter period between 1995 and 2014 are used. From the ship-board velocity measurements, the average eastern boundary circulation at 6°S, 9°S, 12°S, 15°S and 17°S is presented for the summer and winter period. CTD data collected during the 24 cruises along the Angolan continental margin exhibit elevated interannual variability of heat and salt content in the upper thermocline between 50 and 150m depth. Warm and cold anomalies in the upper thermocline are strongly correlated to the Angola-Benguela area index and precede the respective sea surface temperature signal. The known warm events in 2001 and 2011 are well represented in the subsurface data. This suggests that thermocline heat anomalies serve as a preconditioning for the occurrences of Benguela Niños/Niñas. The processes responsible for the interannual variability of thermocline heat and salt contend are discussed.

  7. Socio-hydrological model to inform community adaptation to seasonal drought and climate variability in rural agricultural watersheds in Costa Rica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hund, S. V.; Johnson, M. S.; Morillas, L.; McDaniels, T.; Romero Valpreda, J.; Allen, D. M.

    2017-12-01

    Climate variability and seasonal droughts associated with ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) and increasing water demand due to growing population are leading to serious water conflicts in the wet-dry tropics of Central America. Integrated methods are needed to understand the linkages of these complex socio-hydrological systems and design reliable adaption strategies in a period of global change. With increasing pressure on surface and groundwater resources during long annual dry seasons, rural agricultural communities suffer water shortages, especially in those years preceded by wet seasons with lower rainfall (and reduced groundwater recharge). To support community resilience to rainfall variability and droughts, we conducted a combination of fieldwork (development of hydrologic monitoring system and local stakeholder cooperation), and hydrological modeling for two watersheds with a shared aquifer (Potrero and Caimital) in Northwestern Costa Rica. The agricultural land use of the region and the many rural villages that draw directly on their local water resource and live in close interaction with their watersheds necessitated a socio-hydrological systems approach. In this talk we present results from our hydrologic modeling, for which we used the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) model and locally recorded data. With the integrated water supply and demand features of the WEAP model, we were able to synthesize both the hydrological system and the societal system (specifically, household and agricultural water use), and show feedbacks such as that water use tends to increase during the dry season, likely exacerbating water shortages issues. Further, applying a range of ENSO related rainfall scenarios to the model demonstrated that community adaptation will become in particular important in response to lower water availability in future El Niño years. In collaboration with local stakeholders, we identified a set of feasible adaptation strategies to seasonal

  8. Variability of breath condensate pH may contribute to the better understanding of non-allergic seasonal respiratory diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullmann, Tamás; Szipőcs, Annamária

    2017-09-01

    The seasonal variability of certain non-allergic respiratory diseases is not clearly understood. Analysis of the breath condensate, the liquid that can be collected by breathing into a cold tube, has been proposed to bring closer to the understanding of airway pathologies. It has been assumed, that (1) airway lining fluid was a stable body liquid and (2) the breath condensate samples were representative of the airway lining fluid. Research was focussed on the identification of biomarkers indicative of respiratory pathologies. Despite 30 years of extended investigations breath condensate analysis has not gained any clinical implementation so far. The pH of the condensate is the characteristic that can be determined with the highest reproducibility. The present paper shows, that contrary to the initial assumptions, breath condensate is not a representative of the airway lining fluid, and the airway lining fluid is not a stable body liquid. Condensate pH shows baseline variability and it is influenced by drinking and by the ambient temperature. The changes in condensate pH are linked to changes in airway lining fluid pH. The variability of airway lining fluid pH may explain seasonal incidence of certain non-allergic respiratory diseases such as the catching of a common cold and the increased incidence of COPD exacerbations and exercise-induced bronchoconstriction in cold periods.

  9. Physiological and performance adaptations to an in-season soccer camp in the heat: Associations with heart rate and heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchheit, M; Voss, S C; Nybo, Lars

    2011-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the associations between adaptive responses to an in-season soccer training camp in the heat and changes in submaximal exercising heart rate (HRex, 5-min run at 9 ¿km/h), postexercise HR recovery (HRR) and HR variability (HRV). Fifteen well-trained but ......The aim of the present study was to examine the associations between adaptive responses to an in-season soccer training camp in the heat and changes in submaximal exercising heart rate (HRex, 5-min run at 9 ¿km/h), postexercise HR recovery (HRR) and HR variability (HRV). Fifteen well......-trained but non-heat-acclimatized male adult players performed a training week in Qatar (34.6¿±¿1.9°C wet bulb globe temperature). HRex, HRR, HRV (i.e. the standard deviation of instantaneous beat-to-beat R-R interval variability measured from Poincaré plots SD1, a vagal-related index), creatine kinase (CK...... at the beginning and at the end of the training week. Throughout the intervention, HRex and HRV showed decreasing (P¿...

  10. Diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of atmospheric CO2 in the Paris megacity area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xueref-Remy, Irène; Dieudonné, Elsa; Vuillemin, Cyrille; Lopez, Morgan; Lac, Christine; Schmidt, Martina; Delmotte, Marc; Chevallier, Frédéric; Ravetta, François; Perrussel, Olivier; Ciais, Philippe; Bréon, François-Marie; Broquet, Grégoire; Ramonet, Michel; Spain, T. Gerard; Ampe, Christophe

    2018-03-01

    Most of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions arise from urbanized and industrialized areas. Bottom-up inventories quantify them but with large uncertainties. In 2010-2011, the first atmospheric in situ CO2 measurement network for Paris, the capital of France, began operating with the aim of monitoring the regional atmospheric impact of the emissions coming from this megacity. Five stations sampled air along a northeast-southwest axis that corresponds to the direction of the dominant winds. Two stations are classified as rural (Traînou - TRN; Montgé-en-Goële - MON), two are peri-urban (Gonesse - GON; Gif-sur-Yvette - GIF) and one is urban (EIF, located on top of the Eiffel Tower). In this study, we analyze the diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of the in situ CO2 measurements over nearly 1 year (8 August 2010-13 July 2011). We compare these datasets with remote CO2 measurements made at Mace Head (MHD) on the Atlantic coast of Ireland and support our analysis with atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH) observations made in the center of Paris and with both modeled and observed meteorological fields. The average hourly CO2 diurnal cycles observed at the regional stations are mostly driven by the CO2 biospheric cycle, the ABLH cycle and the proximity to urban CO2 emissions. Differences of several µmol mol-1 (ppm) can be observed from one regional site to the other. The more the site is surrounded by urban sources (mostly residential and commercial heating, and traffic), the more the CO2 concentration is elevated, as is the associated variability which reflects the variability of the urban sources. Furthermore, two sites with inlets high above ground level (EIF and TRN) show a phase shift of the CO2 diurnal cycle of a few hours compared to lower sites due to a strong coupling with the boundary layer diurnal cycle. As a consequence, the existence of a CO2 vertical gradient above Paris can be inferred, whose amplitude depends on the time of the day and on

  11. Relationships between structure of the tree component and environmental variables in a subtropical seasonal forest in the upper Uruguay River valley, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Máida Ariane de Mélo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze relationships among the structure of the tree component, edaphic variables and canopy discontinuity along a toposequence in a seasonal upland (hillside forest in southern Brazil. Soil and vegetation were sampled in 25 plots of 20 × 20 m each. We described the vegetation in terms of structure, richness and diversity, as well as by species distribution patterns. We evaluated canopy continuity, determined sloping and calculated spatial coordinates. We applied partial canonical correspondence analysis (pCCA to determine whether species distribution correlated with environmental and spatial variables. We identified 1201 individuals belonging to 76 species within 30 families. The species with highest density and frequency were Gymnanthes concolor Spreng., Calyptranthes tricona D.Legrand, Eugenia moraviana O.Berg and Trichilia claussenii DC. The pCCAs indicated significant correlations with environmental and spatial variables. Sand content, boron content and soil density collectively explained 36.17% of the species matrix variation (total inertia, whereas the spatial variables x, y and xy² collectively explained 14.27%. The interaction between environmental and spatial variables explained nearly 4.5%. However, 45.05% remained unexplained, attributed to stochastic variation or unmeasured variables. Terrain morphology and canopy discontinuity had no apparent influence on richness, and changes in species distribution were correlated with sloping, which affects soil features and determines the directional distribution of some species.

  12. Spatio-seasonal variability of chromophoric dissolved organic matter absorption and responses to photobleaching in a large shallow temperate lake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Encina Aulló-Maestro, María; Hunter, Peter; Spyrakos, Evangelos; Mercatoris, Pierre; Kovács, Attila; Horváth, Hajnalka; Preston, Tom; Présing, Mátyás; Torres Palenzuela, Jesús; Tyler, Andrew

    2017-03-01

    The development and validation of remote-sensing-based approaches for the retrieval of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) concentrations requires a comprehensive understanding of the sources and magnitude of variability in the optical properties of dissolved material within lakes. In this study, spatial and seasonal variability in concentration and composition of CDOM and the origin of its variation was studied in Lake Balaton (Hungary), a large temperate shallow lake in central Europe. In addition, we investigated the effect of photobleaching on the optical properties of CDOM through in-lake incubation experiments. There was marked variability throughout the year in CDOM absorption in Lake Balaton (aCDOM(440) = 0. 06-9.01 m-1). The highest values were consistently observed at the mouth of the main inflow (Zala River), which drains humic-rich material from the adjoining Kis-Balaton wetland, but CDOM absorption decreased rapidly towards the east where it was consistently lower and less variable than in the westernmost lake basins. The spectral slope parameter for the interval of 350-500 nm (SCDOM(350-500)) was more variable with increasing distance from the inflow (observed range 0.0161-0.0181 nm-1 for the mouth of the main inflow and 0.0158-0.0300 nm-1 for waters closer to the outflow). However, spatial variation in SCDOM was more constant exhibiting a negative correlation with aCDOM(440). Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) was strongly positively correlated with aCDOM(440) and followed a similar seasonal trend but it demonstrated more variability than either aCDOM or SCDOM with distance through the system. Photobleaching resulting from a 7-day exposure to natural solar UV radiation resulted in a marked decrease in allochthonous CDOM absorption (7.04 to 3.36 m-1, 42 % decrease). Photodegradation also resulted in an increase in the spectral slope coefficient of dissolved material.

  13. Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index and seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redolat, Dario; Monjo, Robert; Lopez-Bustins, Joan A.; Martin-Vide, Javier

    2018-02-01

    The need for early seasonal forecasts stimulates continuous research in climate teleconnections. The large variability of the Mediterranean climate presents a greater difficulty in predicting climate anomalies. This article reviews teleconnection indices commonly used for the Mediterranean basin and explores possible extensions of one of them, the Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi). In particular, the anomalies of the geopotential height field at 500 hPa are analyzed using segmentation of the Mediterranean basin in seven spatial windows: three at eastern and four at western. That is, different versions of an Upper-Level Mediterranean Oscillation index (ULMOi) were calculated, and monthly and annual variability of precipitation and temperature were analyzed for 53 observatories from 1951 to 2015. Best versions were selected according to the Pearson correlation, its related p value, and two measures of standardized error. The combination of the Balearic Sea and Libya/Egypt windows was the best for precipitation and temperature, respectively. The ULMOi showed the highest predictive ability in combination with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index (AMOi) for the annual temperature throughout the Mediterranean basin. The best model built from the indices presented a final mean error between 15 and 25% in annual precipitation for most of the studied area.

  14. Seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in tropical and temperate regions of the world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dowdy, Andrew J

    2016-02-11

    Thunderstorms are convective systems characterised by the occurrence of lightning. Lightning and thunderstorm activity has been increasingly studied in recent years in relation to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various other large-scale modes of atmospheric and oceanic variability. Large-scale modes of variability can sometimes be predictable several months in advance, suggesting potential for seasonal forecasting of lightning and thunderstorm activity in various regions throughout the world. To investigate this possibility, seasonal lightning activity in the world's tropical and temperate regions is examined here in relation to numerous different large-scale modes of variability. Of the seven modes of variability examined, ENSO has the strongest relationship with lightning activity during each individual season, with relatively little relationship for the other modes of variability. A measure of ENSO variability (the NINO3.4 index) is significantly correlated to local lightning activity at 53% of locations for one or more seasons throughout the year. Variations in atmospheric parameters commonly associated with thunderstorm activity are found to provide a plausible physical explanation for the variations in lightning activity associated with ENSO. It is demonstrated that there is potential for accurately predicting lightning and thunderstorm activity several months in advance in various regions throughout the world.

  15. Seasonal variation in gas exchange by plants of Erythroxylum simonis Plowman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Everthon da Silva Ribeiro

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Erythroxylum simonisis an understory species found in Northeast Brazil. Due to its shaded habitat,E. simonisis subjected to seasonal oscillations of the environment, to which it must respond ecophysiologically. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of seasonality on the ecophysiology ofE. simonis in a fragment of Seasonal Semideciduous Forest. Leaf area index, visible sky fraction and photosynthetically active radiation were measured for 10 individuals during the dry and rainy seasons. Soil moisture, temperature and monthly precipitation were measured, as well as photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, internal CO2concentration, transpiration, instantaneous water use efficiency, instantaneous carboxylation efficiency and chlorophyll content. Ecophysiological variables were correlated with environmental variables, with a greater association of rainfall and soil moisture with stomatal conductance, transpiration and photosynthetic rate, indicating that water availability has an effect on the ecophysiology ofE. simonis. With the exception of instantaneous carboxylation efficiency, gas exchange exhibited significant differences among the months studied, with the highest values being for months with greater water availability, thus showing that the ecophysiology of the species responds to seasonal changes throughout the year.

  16. Late Cretaceous seasonal ocean variability from the Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E S; Pike, Jennifer

    2009-07-09

    The modern Arctic Ocean is regarded as a barometer of global change and amplifier of global warming and therefore records of past Arctic change are critical for palaeoclimate reconstruction. Little is known of the state of the Arctic Ocean in the greenhouse period of the Late Cretaceous epoch (65-99 million years ago), yet records from such times may yield important clues to Arctic Ocean behaviour in near-future warmer climates. Here we present a seasonally resolved Cretaceous sedimentary record from the Alpha ridge of the Arctic Ocean. This palaeo-sediment trap provides new insight into the workings of the Cretaceous marine biological carbon pump. Seasonal primary production was dominated by diatom algae but was not related to upwelling as was previously hypothesized. Rather, production occurred within a stratified water column, involving specially adapted species in blooms resembling those of the modern North Pacific subtropical gyre, or those indicated for the Mediterranean sapropels. With increased CO(2) levels and warming currently driving increased stratification in the global ocean, this style of production that is adapted to stratification may become more widespread. Our evidence for seasonal diatom production and flux testify to an ice-free summer, but thin accumulations of terrigenous sediment within the diatom ooze are consistent with the presence of intermittent sea ice in the winter, supporting a wide body of evidence for low temperatures in the Late Cretaceous Arctic Ocean, rather than recent suggestions of a 15 degrees C mean annual temperature at this time.

  17. Climate variability in a coupled GCM. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latif, M.; Sterl, A.; Assenbaum, M.; Junge, M.M.; Maier-Reimer, E.

    1993-01-01

    The seasonal cycle and the interannual variability of the tropical Indian Ocean circulation are investigated and the Indian Summer Monsoon is simulated by a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model in a 26 year integration. Although the model exhibits significant climate drift, it simulates realistically the seasonal changes in the tropical Indian Ocean and the onset and evolution of the Indian Summer Monsoon. The amplitudes of the seasonal changes, however, are somewhat underestimated. The coupled GCM also simulates considerable interannual variability in the tropical Indian Ocean circulation which is partly related to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the associated changes in the Walker Circulation. Changes in the surface wind stress appear to be crucial in forcing interannual variations in the Indian Ocean SST. As in the Pacific Ocean, the net surface heat flux acts as a negative feedback on the SST anomalies. The interannual variability in Monsoon rainfall is simulated by the coupled GCM only about half as strongly as observed. (orig.)

  18. Seasonal variability of oxidative stress markers in city bus drivers. Part II. Oxidative damage to lipids and proteins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rossner, Pavel; Svecova, Vlasta; Milcova, Alena; Lnenickova, Zdena; Solansky, Ivo; Sram, Radim J

    2008-07-03

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the seasonal variability of markers of oxidative damage to lipids (15-F2t-isoprostane, 15-F2t-IsoP) and proteins (protein carbonyl levels) in 50 bus drivers and 50 controls from Prague, Czech Republic, and to identify factors affecting oxidative stress markers. The samples were collected in three seasons with different levels of air pollution. The exposure to environmental pollutants (carcinogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, c-PAHs, particulate matter, PM2.5 and PM10, and volatile organic compounds, VOC) was monitored by personal and/or stationary monitors. For the analysis of both markers, ELISA techniques were used. The median levels of individual markers in bus drivers versus controls were as follows: 15-F2t-IsoP (nmol/mmol creatinine): winter 2005, 0.81 versus 0.68 (pbus drivers in winter seasons, but not in summer. Lipid peroxidation was positively correlated with c-PAHs and PM exposure; protein oxidation correlated negatively and was highest in summer suggesting another factor(s) affecting protein carbonyl levels.

  19. Variability, trends, and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serreze, Mark C.; Crawford, Alex D.; Stroeve, Julienne C.; Barrett, Andrew P.; Woodgate, Rebecca A.

    2016-10-01

    As assessed over the period 1979-2014, the date that sea ice retreats to the shelf break (150 m contour) of the Chukchi Sea has a linear trend of -0.7 days per year. The date of seasonal ice advance back to the shelf break has a steeper trend of about +1.5 days per year, together yielding an increase in the open water period of 80 days. Based on detrended time series, we ask how interannual variability in advance and retreat dates relate to various forcing parameters including radiation fluxes, temperature and wind (from numerical reanalyses), and the oceanic heat inflow through the Bering Strait (from in situ moorings). Of all variables considered, the retreat date is most strongly correlated (r ˜ 0.8) with the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow. After testing a suite of statistical linear models using several potential predictors, the best model for predicting the date of retreat includes only the April through June Bering Strait heat inflow, which explains 68% of retreat date variance. The best model predicting the ice advance date includes the July through September inflow and the date of retreat, explaining 67% of advance date variance. We address these relationships by discussing heat balances within the Chukchi Sea, and the hypothesis of oceanic heat transport triggering ocean heat uptake and ice-albedo feedback. Developing an operational prediction scheme for seasonal retreat and advance would require timely acquisition of Bering Strait heat inflow data. Predictability will likely always be limited by the chaotic nature of atmospheric circulation patterns.

  20. Applicability of API ZYM to capture seasonal and spatial variabilities in lake and river sediments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Drashti; Gismondi, Renee; Alsaffar, Ali; Tiquia-Arashiro, Sonia M

    2018-05-02

    Waters draining into a lake carry with them much of the suspended sediment that is transported by rivers and streams from the local drainage basin. The organic matter processing in the sediments is executed by heterotrophic microbial communities, whose activities may vary spatially and temporally. Thus, to capture and evaluate some of these variabilities in the sediments, we sampled six sites: three from the St. Clair River and three from Lake St. Clair in spring, summer, fall, and winter of 2016. At all sites and dates, we investigated the spatial and temporal variations in 19 extracellular enzyme activities using API ZYM. Our results indicated that a broad range of enzymes were found to be active in the sediments. Phosphatases, lipases, and esterases were synthesized most intensively by the sediment microbial communities. No consistent difference was found between the lake and sediment samples. Differences were more obvious between sites and seasons. Sites with the highest metabolic (enzyme) diversity reflected the capacity of the sediment microbial communities to breakdown a broader range of substrates and may be linked to differences in river and lake water quality. The seasonal variability of the enzymes activities was governed by the variations of environmental factors caused by anthropogenic and terrestrial inputs, and provides information for a better understanding of the dynamics of sediment organic matter of the river and lake ecosystems. The experimental results suggest that API ZYM is a simple and rapid enzyme assay procedure to evaluate natural processes in ecosystems and their changes.

  1. Seasonal variability of thermophilic Campylobacter spp. in raw milk sold by automatic vending machines in Lombardy Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbara Bertasi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In temperate climates, a seasonal trend was observed in the incidence of human campylobacteriosis cases, with peaks reported in spring and autumn in some countries, or in summer in others; a similar trend was observed in Campylobacter spp. dairy cattle faecal shedding, suggesting that cattle may play a role in the seasonal peak of human infection. The objectives of this study were to assess if a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk exists and to evaluate a possible relation between this and the increase of human campylobacteriosis incidence in summer months. The results showed a mean prevalence of 1.6% of milk samples positive for thermophilic Campylobacter spp. with a wide range (0.0-3.1% in different months during the three years considered. The statistical analysis showed a significant difference (PCampylobacter spp. between warmer and cooler months (2.3 vs 0.6%. The evidence of a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk sold for direct consumption, with an increase of the prevalence in warmer months, may represent one of the possible links between seasonal trend in cattle faecal shedding and seasonal trend in human campylobacteriosis.

  2. Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya - Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M G; Maass, Brigitte L; Whitbread, Anthony M

    2017-01-01

    Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cowpea ( Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.] and lablab [ Lablab purpureus (L.) Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM). The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE) was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index). While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha -1 . An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and dry matter

  3. Spatial and temporal variability in seasonal snow density

    KAUST Repository

    Bormann, Kathryn J.

    2013-03-01

    Snow density is a fundamental physical property of snowpacks used in many aspects of snow research. As an integral component in the remote sensing of snow water equivalent and parameterisation of snow models, snow density may be used to describe many important features of snowpack behaviour. The present study draws on a significant dataset of snow density and climate observations from the United States, Australia and the former Soviet Union and uses regression-based techniques to identify the dominant climatological drivers for snow densification rates, characterise densification rate variability and estimate spring snow densities from more readily available climate data. Total winter precipitation was shown to be the most prominent driver of snow densification rates, with mean air temperature and melt-refreeze events also found to be locally significant. Densification rate variance is very high at Australian sites, very low throughout the former Soviet Union and between these extremes throughout much of the US. Spring snow densities were estimated using a statistical model with climate variable inputs and best results were achieved when snow types were treated differently. Given the importance of snow density information in many snow-related research disciplines, this work has implications for current methods of converting snow depths to snow water equivalent, the representation of snow dynamics in snow models and remote sensing applications globally. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

  4. Spatial and temporal variability in seasonal snow density

    KAUST Repository

    Bormann, Kathryn J.; Westra, Seth; Evans, Jason P.; McCabe, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Snow density is a fundamental physical property of snowpacks used in many aspects of snow research. As an integral component in the remote sensing of snow water equivalent and parameterisation of snow models, snow density may be used to describe many important features of snowpack behaviour. The present study draws on a significant dataset of snow density and climate observations from the United States, Australia and the former Soviet Union and uses regression-based techniques to identify the dominant climatological drivers for snow densification rates, characterise densification rate variability and estimate spring snow densities from more readily available climate data. Total winter precipitation was shown to be the most prominent driver of snow densification rates, with mean air temperature and melt-refreeze events also found to be locally significant. Densification rate variance is very high at Australian sites, very low throughout the former Soviet Union and between these extremes throughout much of the US. Spring snow densities were estimated using a statistical model with climate variable inputs and best results were achieved when snow types were treated differently. Given the importance of snow density information in many snow-related research disciplines, this work has implications for current methods of converting snow depths to snow water equivalent, the representation of snow dynamics in snow models and remote sensing applications globally. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

  5. Seasonal variability of primary production in a fjord ecosystem of the Chilean Patagonia: Implications for the transfer of carbon within pelagic food webs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, Paulina; Daneri, Giovanni; González, Humberto E.; Iriarte, Jose Luis; Tapia, Fabián J.; Lizárraga, Lorena; Sanchez, Nicolas; Pizarro, Oscar

    2011-03-01

    We characterized the seasonal cycle of productivity in Reloncaví Fjord (41°30'S), Chilean Patagonia. Seasonal surveys that included measurements of gross primary production, community respiration, bacterioplankton secondary production, and sedimentation rates along the fjord were combined with continuous records of water-column temperature variability and wind forcing, as well as satellite-derived data on regional patterns of wind stress, sea surface temperatures, and surface chlorophyll concentrations. The hydrography and perhaps fjord productivity respond to the timing and intensity of wind forcing over a larger region. Seasonal changes in the direction and intensity of winds, along with a late-winter improvement in light conditions, may determine the timing of phytoplankton blooms and potentially modulate productivity cycles in the region. Depth-integrated gross primary production estimates were higher (0.4-3.8 g C m -2 d -1) in the productive season (October, February, and May), and lower (0.1-0.2 g C m -2 d -1) in the non-productive season (August). These seasonal changes were also reflected in community respiration and bacterioplankton production rates, which ranged, respectively, from 0.3 to 4.8 g C m -2 d -1 and 0.05 to 0.4 g C m -2 d -1 during the productive and non-productive seasons and from 0.05 to 0.6 g C m -2 d -1 and 0.05 to 0.2 g C m -2 d -1 during the same two periods. We found a strong, significant correlation between gross primary production and community respiration (Spearman, r=0.95; p100%, suggesting the use of allochthonous carbon sources by bacterioplankton when the levels of gross primary production are low. Low primary production rates were associated with a greater contribution of small cells to autotrophic biomass, highlighting the importance of small-sized plankton and bacteria for carbon cycling and fluxes during the less productive winter months. Fecal pellet sedimentation was minimal during this period, also suggesting that most of

  6. Temporal dynamics and leaf trait variability in Neotropical dry forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesketh, Michael Sean

    This thesis explores the variability of leaf traits resulting from changes in season, ecosystem successional stage, and site characteristics. In chapter two, I present a review of the use of remote sensing analysis for the evaluation of Neotropical dry forests. Here, I stress the conclusion, drawn from studies on land cover characterization, biodiversity assessment, and evaluation of forest structural characteristics, that addressing temporal variability in spectral properties is an essential element in the monitoring of these ecosystems. Chapter three describes the effect of wet-dry seasonality on spectral classification of tree and liana species. Highly accurate classification (> 80%) was possible using data from either the wet or dry season. However, this accuracy decreased by a factor of ten when data from the wet season was classified using an algorithm trained on the dry, or vice versa. I also address the potential creation of a spectral taxonomy of species, but found that any clustering based on spectral properties resulted in markedly different arrangements in the wet and dry seasons. In chapter 4, I address the variation present in both physical and spectral leaf traits according to changes in forest successional stage at dry forest sites in Mexico and Costa Rica. I found significant differences in leaf traits between successional stages, but more strongly so in Costa Rica. This variability deceased the accuracy of spectral classification of tree species by a factor of four when classifying data using an algorithm trained on a different successional stage. Chapter 5 shows the influence of seasonality and succession on trait variability in Mexico. Differences in leaf traits between successional stages were found to be greater during the dry season, but were sufficient in both seasons to negatively influence spectral classification of tree species. Throughout this thesis, I show clear and unambiguous evidence of the variability of key physical and spectral

  7. European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

  8. Seasonal and high-resolution variability in hydrochemistry of the Andes-Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burt, E.; West, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Stream hydrochemistry acts as a record of integrated catchment processes such as the amount of time it takes precipitation to flow through the subsurface and become streamflow (water transit times), water-rock interaction and biogeochemical cycling. Although it is understood that sampling interval affects observed patterns in hydrochemistry, most studies collect samples on a weekly, bi-weekly or monthly schedule due to lack of resources or the difficulty of maintaining automated sampling devices. Here, we attempt to combine information from two sampling time scales, comparing a year-long hydrochemical time series to data from a recent sub-daily sampling campaign. Starting in April 2016, river, soil and rain waters have been collected every two weeks at five small catchments spanning the tropical Andes and Amazon - a natural laboratory for its gradients in topography, erosion rates, precipitation, temperature and flora. Between January and March, 2017, we conducted high frequency sampling for approximately one week at each catchment, sampling at least every four hours including overnight. We will constrain young water fractions (Kirchner, 2016) and storm water fluxes for the experimental catchments using stable isotopes of water as conservative tracers. Major element data will provide the opportunity to make initial constraints on geochemical and hydrologic coupling. Preliminary results suggest that in the Amazon, hydrochemistry patterns are dependent on sampling frequency: the seasonal cycle in stable isotopes of water is highly damped, while the high resolution sampling displays large variability. This suggests that a two-week sampling interval is not frequent enough to capture rapid transport of water, perhaps through preferential flow networks. In the Andes, stable isotopes of water are highly damped in both the seasonal and high resolution cycle, suggesting that the catchment behaves as a "well-mixed" system.

  9. Bacterial communities from Arctic seasonal sea ice are more compositionally variable than those from multi-year sea ice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatam, Ido; Lange, Benjamin; Beckers, Justin; Haas, Christian; Lanoil, Brian

    2016-10-01

    Arctic sea ice can be classified into two types: seasonal ice (first-year ice, FYI) and multi-year ice (MYI). Despite striking differences in the physical and chemical characteristics of FYI and MYI, and the key role sea ice bacteria play in biogeochemical cycles of the Arctic Ocean, there are a limited number of studies comparing the bacterial communities from these two ice types. Here, we compare the membership and composition of bacterial communities from FYI and MYI sampled north of Ellesmere Island, Canada. Our results show that communities from both ice types were dominated by similar class-level phylogenetic groups. However, at the operational taxonomic unit (OTU) level, communities from MYI and FYI differed in both membership and composition. Communities from MYI sites had consistent structure, with similar membership (presence/absence) and composition (OTU abundance) independent of location and year of sample. By contrast, communities from FYI were more variable. Although FYI bacterial communities from different locations and different years shared similar membership, they varied significantly in composition. Should these findings apply to sea ice across the Arctic, we predict increased compositional variability in sea ice bacterial communities resulting from the ongoing transition from predominantly MYI to FYI, which may impact nutrient dynamics in the Arctic Ocean.

  10. Seasonal and diurnal variability of pressure fluctuation in the infrasound frequency range observed in the Czech microbarograph network

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šindelářová, Tereza; Kozubek, Michal; Chum, Jaroslav; Potužníková, Kateřina

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 2 (2016), s. 747-762 ISSN 0039-3169 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP13-09778P; GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/12/2440 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : infrasound environments * Czech microbarograph network * seasonal and diurnal variability Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 0.764, year: 2016 http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11200-015-0250-1

  11. 18-year variability of ultraviolet radiation penetration in the mid-latitude coastal waters of the western boundary Pacific

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuwahara, Victor S.; Nozaki, Sena; Nakano, Junji; Toda, Tatsuki; Kikuchi, Tomohiko; Taguchi, Satoru

    2015-07-01

    The 18-year time-series shows in situ ultraviolet radiation (UVR) and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) diffuse attenuation coefficient Kd(λ) have recurrent seasonal variability of high/low attenuation during summer/winter months, respectively, dependent on variability in water column stratification and concentrations of bio-optical properties. The mid-latitude coastal survey station displayed significant seasonality of the mixed layer depth (MLD) between 12 and 82 m which modified the distribution of chlorophyll a (4.6-24.9 mg m-2) and absorption of colored dissolved organic matter [aCDOM(320 nm) 0.043-1.34 m-1]. The median Kd(320 nm) displayed significant seasonality at 0.19-0.74 m-1 (C.V. = 44.1%) and seasonal variability within the euphotic layer [Z10%(320 nm) = 7-20%]. High attenuation of UVR with relatively moderate attenuation of PAR was consistently observed during the summer months when increased concentrations of terrestrially derived CDOM coupled with a shallow MLD were present. The winter season showed the opposite of low UVR and PAR attenuation due to a relatively deeper MLD coupled with low concentrations of bio-optical properties. Although the long term Kd(λ) did not vary significantly during the time-series, analysis of the interannual variability suggests there are positive and negative phases following the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) vis-a-vis variability in bio-optical properties (p < 0.001).

  12. Diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of atmospheric CO2 in the Paris megacity area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Xueref-Remy

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Most of the global fossil fuel CO2 emissions arise from urbanized and industrialized areas. Bottom-up inventories quantify them but with large uncertainties. In 2010–2011, the first atmospheric in situ CO2 measurement network for Paris, the capital of France, began operating with the aim of monitoring the regional atmospheric impact of the emissions coming from this megacity. Five stations sampled air along a northeast–southwest axis that corresponds to the direction of the dominant winds. Two stations are classified as rural (Traînou – TRN; Montgé-en-Goële – MON, two are peri-urban (Gonesse – GON; Gif-sur-Yvette – GIF and one is urban (EIF, located on top of the Eiffel Tower. In this study, we analyze the diurnal, synoptic and seasonal variability of the in situ CO2 measurements over nearly 1 year (8 August 2010–13 July 2011. We compare these datasets with remote CO2 measurements made at Mace Head (MHD on the Atlantic coast of Ireland and support our analysis with atmospheric boundary layer height (ABLH observations made in the center of Paris and with both modeled and observed meteorological fields. The average hourly CO2 diurnal cycles observed at the regional stations are mostly driven by the CO2 biospheric cycle, the ABLH cycle and the proximity to urban CO2 emissions. Differences of several µmol mol−1 (ppm can be observed from one regional site to the other. The more the site is surrounded by urban sources (mostly residential and commercial heating, and traffic, the more the CO2 concentration is elevated, as is the associated variability which reflects the variability of the urban sources. Furthermore, two sites with inlets high above ground level (EIF and TRN show a phase shift of the CO2 diurnal cycle of a few hours compared to lower sites due to a strong coupling with the boundary layer diurnal cycle. As a consequence, the existence of a CO2 vertical gradient above Paris can be inferred, whose amplitude depends

  13. Seasonal Variability of Ground Water Levels in the Puszcza Zielonka Forest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grajewski Sylwester

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents results of studies on seasonal variability of ground water tables recorded in long-term observations of water levels in the Puszcza Zielonka forest complex. The Puszcza Zielonka Forest is located in the middle part of the Warta basin in the central part of the Wielkopolska region. Its western boundary is located approx. 6 km north-east of Poznań. The area is situated in the western part of the Wielkopolska-Mazovian climatic region. The natural landscape is of young glacial type of Pleistocene and Holocene formation. For this reason parent materials for soils in this area were mainly postglacial drifts, deposits coming from the Poznań stage of the Würm glaciation. In terms of granulometric composition these were mainly low clayey sands deposited on loose sands with an admixture of gravel and eroded sandy clay. Scots pine is the dominant species. Oaks, alders, larches and scarce spruces are also found in this area. Predominant sites include fresh mixed forest, fresh mixed coniferous forest, fresh broadleaved forest and alder swamp forest.

  14. Drivers, mechanisms and long-term variability of seasonal hypoxia on the Black Sea northwestern shelf - is there any recovery after eutrophication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capet, A.; Beckers, J.-M.; Grégoire, M.

    2013-06-01

    The Black Sea northwestern shelf (NWS) is a shallow eutrophic area in which the seasonal stratification of the water column isolates the bottom waters from the atmosphere. This prevents ventilation from counterbalancing the large consumption of oxygen due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments, and sets the stage for the development of seasonal hypoxia. A three-dimensional (3-D) coupled physical-biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS, first at seasonal and then at interannual scales (1981-2009), and to differentiate its driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication). Model skills are evaluated by a quantitative comparison of the model results to 14 123 in situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean and the Black Sea Commission databases, using different error metrics. This validation exercise shows that the model is able to represent the seasonal and interannual variability of the oxygen concentration and of the occurrence of hypoxia, as well as the spatial distribution of oxygen-depleted waters. During the period 1981-2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS - which receives large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniester and Dnieper rivers - and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian bay of Constanta. An index H which merges the aspects of the spatial and temporal extension of the hypoxic event is proposed to quantify, for each year, the intensity of hypoxia as an environmental stressor. In order to explain the interannual variability of H and to disentangle its drivers, we analyze the long time series of model results by means of a stepwise multiple linear regression. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate-related variables. A total of 82% of the interannual variability

  15. How does the seasonality influence utilitarian walking behaviour in different urbanization settings in Scotland?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Jinhyun

    2016-08-01

    The relationship between the built environment and walking has been analyzed for decades. However, the seasonality effects on the relationship between the built environment and walking have not been well examined even though weather is one of the key determinants of walking. Therefore, this study used 2007-8 Scottish Household Survey data collected over two years and estimated the interaction effects between the urbanization setting (i.e., residential locations: urban, town and rural areas) and seasons (i.e., spring, summer, autumn and winter) on walking. Scottish Urban-rural classification scheme is measured based on the population and access to large cities, and used as a key independent variable. The number of walking days for specific purposes such as work or shopping (utilitarian walking) during the past 7 days is used as a dependent variable. The results show that there are significant geographical variations of seasonality effect on utilitarian walking. That is, people living in rural areas are more sensitive to seasonality impacts than those living in urban areas. In addition, we found that the association between urbanization setting and utilitarian walking varies across seasons, indicating that their relationship can be miss-estimated if we ignore the seasonality effects. Therefore, policy makers and practitioners should consider the seasonality effects to evaluate the effectiveness of land use policy correctly. Finally, we still find the significant association between the urbanization setting and utilitarian walking behaviour with the consideration of seasonality effects, supporting the claim of New Urbanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Seasonal Variability of Thermophilic Campylobacter Spp. in Raw Milk Sold by Automatic Vending Machines in Lombardy Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertasi, Barbara; Losio, Marina Nadia; Daminelli, Paolo; Finazzi, Guido; Serraino, Andrea; Piva, Silvia; Giacometti, Federica; Massella, Elisa; Ostanello, Fabio

    2016-06-03

    In temperate climates, a seasonal trend was observed in the incidence of human campylobacteriosis cases, with peaks reported in spring and autumn in some countries, or in summer in others; a similar trend was observed in Campylobacter spp. dairy cattle faecal shedding, suggesting that cattle may play a role in the seasonal peak of human infection. The objectives of this study were to assess if a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk exists and to evaluate a possible relation between this and the increase of human campylobacteriosis incidence in summer months. The results showed a mean prevalence of 1.6% of milk samples positive for thermophilic Campylobacter spp. with a wide range (0.0-3.1%) in different months during the three years considered. The statistical analysis showed a significant difference (P<0.01) of the prevalence of positive samples for thermophilic Campylobacter spp. between warmer and cooler months (2.3 vs 0.6%). The evidence of a seasonal trend in thermophilic Campylobacter spp. contamination of raw milk sold for direct consumption, with an increase of the prevalence in warmer months, may represent one of the possible links between seasonal trend in cattle faecal shedding and seasonal trend in human campylobacteriosis.

  17. Impact of inter-seasonal solar variability on the association of lower troposphere and cold point tropopause in the tropics: Observations using RO data from COSMIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, V.; Dhaka, S. K.; Ho, Shu-Peng; Singh, Narendra; Singh, Vir; Reddy, K. K.; Chun, H.-Y.

    2017-12-01

    Association of lower tropospheric variations with the cold point tropopause (CPT) is examined on inter-seasonal basis over the tropical region (30°N-30°S) during 2007-2010 using COSMIC/FORMOST-3 Radio Occultation (RO) data. Temperature analyses for this association are shown over different regions of the globe having contrast topography namely over Western Pacific sector, Indian sector, and African sector. Correlation coefficient (r), taken as a measurement of association, show specific longitudinal differences between the lower troposphere (from 1 km to 5 km height) and the CPT. The northern and southern hemispheres show contrast coupling of temperature variation between lower tropospheric region and the CPT. Land and ocean effects are found to contribute in a different way to the correlation coefficient. Analyses show symmetrical structure of 'r' on both sides of the equator over the African region, as data include mostly land region on both side of equator. Data represent positive correlation (r 0.5) over 15°-20° latitudes on either side of the equator over the African region, suggesting strong hold of the inter-seasonal variation of solar diabatic heating influence over the tropic of Cancer and tropic of Capricorn. On the other hand, there is a contrast behaviour over the Indian region, 'r' is nearly negative ( - 1.0) each year in the southern hemisphere (SH) and positive ( 0.4) in the northern hemisphere (NH) with a maxima near tropic of Cancer. Western Pacific region is found to display a linear increase in 'r' from negative ( - 1.0) in SH to positive ( 0.8) in NH. In general, 'r' (positive) maximizes over the land region around 15°-20° latitudes, suggesting a control of in phase inter-seasonal solar heating on the coupling of boundary layer/lower troposphere and CPT region, whereas it turns negative over water body. Analyses suggest that variabilities in CPT over different regions of globe show significant inter-seasonal association with the lower

  18. Land-surface initialisation improves seasonal climate prediction skill for maize yield forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Prodhomme, Chloe; Zampieri, Matteo; Turco, Marco; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

    2018-01-22

    Seasonal crop yield forecasting represents an important source of information to maintain market stability, minimise socio-economic impacts of crop losses and guarantee humanitarian food assistance, while it fosters the use of climate information favouring adaptation strategies. As climate variability and extremes have significant influence on agricultural production, the early prediction of severe weather events and unfavourable conditions can contribute to the mitigation of adverse effects. Seasonal climate forecasts provide additional value for agricultural applications in several regions of the world. However, they currently play a very limited role in supporting agricultural decisions in Europe, mainly due to the poor skill of relevant surface variables. Here we show how a combined stress index (CSI), considering both drought and heat stress in summer, can predict maize yield in Europe and how land-surface initialised seasonal climate forecasts can be used to predict it. The CSI explains on average nearly 53% of the inter-annual maize yield variability under observed climate conditions and shows how concurrent heat stress and drought events have influenced recent yield anomalies. Seasonal climate forecast initialised with realistic land-surface achieves better (and marginally useful) skill in predicting the CSI than with climatological land-surface initialisation in south-eastern Europe, part of central Europe, France and Italy.

  19. Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

  20. Seasonal carcass composition and energy balance of female black ducks in Maine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reinecke, K.J.; Stone, T.L.; Owen, R.B.

    1982-01-01

    Female Black Ducks (Anas rubripes) collected in Maine during the summer, fall, and winter of 1974-1976 showed significant seasonal variation in body weight, nonfat dry weight, gizzard and pectoral muscle weight, and fat, moisture, and protein content. Variation of body weight within and among seasons was correlated more strongly with carcass protein content, and with fat content during seasons of heavy lipid deposition, than with three structural size variables (culmen, tarsus, and sternum). Regression equations including fat and protein as independent variables accounted for 80-90% of the annual and seasonal variation in body weight; structural size variables alone accounted for less than 30%. Immature females averaged 54 and 99 g lighter, and carried 54 and 59 g less fat than adults during the fall and winter. Ducks of both age classes lost weight in December and January. Adult and immature females metabolized 59 and 64 g of fat and 17 and 25 g of protein in winter compared with 46 g of fat during the nesting season. Nutrient reserves are thus equally as important for the winter survival of these birds as for successfurl eproduction. Seasonal changes in carcass composition suggest that (1) fat deposited in late fall provides an energy reserve during winter, (2) a reduction in lean weight during winter may lower daily energy requirements and increase the effective amount of energy reserves, and (3) declining body weights during late winter may be an endogenous rhythm that reflects a shift in the expected benefits of an energy reserve compared to the costs of carrying additional weight,

  1. Warm Season Subseasonal Variability and Climate Extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The Role of Stationary Rossby Waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schubert, Siegfried; Wang, Hailan; Suarez, Max

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the nature of boreal summer subseasonal atmospheric variability based on the new NASA Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) for the period 1979-2010. An analysis of the June, July and August subseasonal 250hPa v-wind anomalies shows distinct Rossby wave-like structures that appear to be guided by the mean jets. On monthly subseasonal time scales, the leading waves (the first 10 rotated empirical orthogonal functions or REOFs of the 250hPa v-wind) explain about 50% of the Northern Hemisphere vwind variability, and account for more than 30% (60%) of the precipitation (surface temperature) variability over a number of regions of the northern middle and high latitudes, including the U.S. northern Great Plains, parts of Canada, Europe, and Russia. The first REOF in particular, consists of a Rossby wave that extends across northern Eurasia where it is a dominant contributor to monthly surface temperature and precipitation variability, and played an important role in the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves. While primarily subseasonal in nature, the Rossby waves can at times have a substantial seasonal mean component. This is exemplified by REOF 4 which played a major role in the development of the most intense anomalies of the U.S. 1988 drought (during June) and the 1993 flooding (during July), though differed in the latter event by also making an important contribution to the seasonal mean anomalies. A stationary wave model (SWM) is used to reproduce some of the basic features of the observed waves and provide insight into the nature of the forcing. In particular, the responses to a set of idealized forcing functions are used to map the optimal forcing patterns of the leading waves. Also, experiments to reproduce the observed waves with the SWM using MERRA-based estimates of the forcing indicate that the wave forcing is dominated by sub-monthly vorticity transients.

  2. Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability of the South Asian monsoon in the Met Office GloSea5 initialized coupled model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayakumar, A.; Turner, A. G.; Johnson, S. J.; Rajagopal, E. N.; Mohandas, Saji; Mitra, A. K.

    2017-09-01

    Boreal summer sub-seasonal variability in the Asian monsoon, otherwise known as the monsoon intra-seasonal oscillation (MISO), is one of the dominant modes of intraseasonal variability in the tropics, with large impacts on total monsoon rainfall and India's agricultural production. However, our understanding of the mechanisms involved in MISO is incomplete and its simulation in various numerical models is often flawed. In this study, we focus on the objective evaluation of the fidelity of MISO simulation in the Met Office Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), an initialized coupled model. We analyze a series of nine-member hindcasts from GloSea5 over 1996-2009 during the peak monsoon period (July-August) over the South-Asian monsoon domain focusing on aspects of the time-mean background state and air-sea interaction processes pertinent to MISO. Dominant modes during this period are evident in power spectrum analysis, but propagation and evolution characteristics of the MISO are not realistic. We find that simulated air-sea interactions in the central Indian Ocean are not supportive of MISO initiation in that region, likely a result of the low surface wind variance there. As a consequence, the expected near-quadrature phase relationship between SST and convection is not represented properly over the central equatorial Indian Ocean, and northward propagation from the equator is poorly simulated. This may reinforce the equatorial rainfall mean state bias in GloSea5.

  3. Inter-annual rainfall variability in the eastern Antilles and coupling with the regional and intra-seasonal circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2016-11-01

    Climate variability in the eastern Antilles island chain is analyzed via principal component analysis of high-resolution monthly rainfall in the period 1981-2013. The second mode reflecting higher rainfall in July-October season between Martinique and Grenada is the focus of this study. Higher rainfall corresponds with a weakened trade wind and boundary current along the southern edge of the Caribbean. This quells the coastal upwelling off Venezuela and builds the freshwater plume east of Trinidad. There is corresponding upper easterly wind flow that intensifies passing tropical waves. During a storm event over the Antilles on 4-5 October 2010, there was inflow from east of Guyana where low salinity and high sea temperatures enable surplus latent heat fluxes. A N-S convective rain band forms ˜500 km east of the cyclonic vortex. Many features at the weather timescale reflect the seasonal correlation and composite difference maps and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulation of oceanic inter-basin transfers.

  4. Seasonal variability of carbon in humic-like matter of ambient size-segregated water soluble organic aerosols from urban background environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frka, Sanja; Grgić, Irena; Turšič, Janja; Gini, Maria I.; Eleftheriadis, Konstantinos

    2018-01-01

    Long-term measurements of carbon in HUmic-LIke Substances (HULIS-C) of ambient size-segregated water soluble organic aerosols were performed using a ten-stage low-pressure Berner impactor from December 2014 to November 2015 at an urban background environment in Ljubljana, Slovenia. The mass size distribution patterns of measured species (PM - particulate matter, WSOC - water-soluble organic carbon and HULIS-C) for all seasons were generally tri-modal (primarily accumulation mode) but with significant seasonal variability. HULIS-C was found to have similar distributions as WSOC, with nearly the same mass median aerodynamic diameters (MMADs), except for winter when the HULIS-C size distribution was bimodal. In autumn and winter, the dominant accumulation mode with MMAD at ca. 0.65 μm contributed 83 and 97% to the total HULIS-C concentration, respectively. HULIS-C accounted for a large fraction of WSOC, averaging more than 50% in autumn and 40% in winter. Alternatively, during warmer periods the contributions of ultrafine (27% in summer) and coarse mode (27% in spring) were also substantial. Based on mass size distribution characteristics, HULIS-C was found to be of various sources. In colder seasons, wood burning was confirmed as the most important HULIS source; secondary formation in atmospheric liquid water also contributed significantly, as revealed by the MMADs of the accumulation mode shifting to larger sizes. The distinct difference between the spring and summer ratios of HULIS-C/WSOC in fine particles (ca. 50% in spring, but only 10% in summer) indicated different sources and chemical composition of WSOC in summer (e.g., SOA formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) via photochemistry). The enlarged amount of HULIS-C in the ultrafine mode in summer suggests that the important contribution was most likely from new particle formation during higher emissions of BVOC due to the vicinity of a mixed deciduous forest; the higher contribution of

  5. Climatological variability in regional air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shannon, J.D.; Trexler, E.C. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    Although some air pollution modeling studies examine events that have already occurred (e.g., the Chernobyl plume) with relevant meteorological conditions largely known, most pollution modeling studies address expected or potential scenarios for the future. Future meteorological conditions, the major pollutant forcing function other than emissions, are inherently uncertain although much relevant information is contained in past observational data. For convenience in our discussions of regional pollutant variability unrelated to emission changes, we define meteorological variability as short-term (within-season) pollutant variability and climatological variability as year-to-year changes in seasonal averages and accumulations of pollutant variables. In observations and in some of our simulations the effects are confounded because for seasons of two different years both the mean and the within-season character of a pollutant variable may change. Effects of climatological and meteorological variability on means and distributions of air pollution parameters, particularly those related to regional visibility, are illustrated. Over periods of up to a decade climatological variability may mask or overstate improvements resulting from emission controls. The importance of including climatological uncertainties in assessing potential policies, particularly when based partly on calculated source-receptor relationships, is highlighted

  6. Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya — Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne Sennhenn

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L., cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L. Walp.] and lablab [Lablab purpureus (L. Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM. The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index. While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha−1. An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and

  7. Exploring Niches for Short-Season Grain Legumes in Semi-Arid Eastern Kenya — Coping with the Impacts of Climate Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sennhenn, Anne; Njarui, Donald M. G.; Maass, Brigitte L.; Whitbread, Anthony M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate variability is the major risk to agricultural production in semi-arid agroecosystems and the key challenge to sustain farm livelihoods for the 500 million people who inhabit these areas worldwide. Short-season grain legumes have great potential to address this challenge and help to design more resilient and productive farming systems. However, grain legumes display a great diversity and differ widely in growth, development, and resource use efficiency. Three contrasting short season grain legumes common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp.] and lablab [Lablab purpureus (L.) Sweet] were selected to assess their agricultural potential with respect to climate variability and change along the Machakos-Makueni transect in semi-arid Eastern Kenya. This was undertaken using measured data [a water response trial conducted during 2012/13 and 2013/14 in Machakos, Kenya] and simulated data using the Agricultural Production System sIMulator (APSIM). The APSIM crop model was calibrated and validated to simulate growth and development of short-season grain legumes in semi-arid environments. Water use efficiency (WUE) was used as indicator to quantify the production potential. The major traits of adaptation include early flowering and pod and seed set before the onset of terminal drought. Early phenology together with adapted canopy architecture allowed more optimal water use and greater partitioning of dry matter into seed (higher harvest index). While common bean followed a comparatively conservative strategy of minimizing water loss through crop transpiration, the very short development time and compact growth habit limited grain yield to rarely exceed 1,000 kg ha−1. An advantage of this strategy was relatively stable yields independent of in-crop rainfall or season length across the Machakos-Makueni transect. The growth habit of cowpea in contrast minimized water loss through soil evaporation with rapid ground cover and dry matter

  8. Seasonal variability of free amino acids in two marine bivalves, Macoma balthica and Mytilus spp., in relation to environmental and physiological factors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kube, S.; Sokolowski, A.; Jansen, J.M.; Schiedek, D.

    2007-01-01

    The seasonal variability of the intracellular free amino acid (FAA) concentration was studied in 5 Macoma balthica populations and 7 Mytilus spp. populations along their European distribution. Because of the well known physiological role of FAA as organic osmolytes for salinity induced cell volume

  9. Seasonal variability of the parameters of the Ball-Berry model of stomatal conductance in maize (Zea mays L.) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) under well-watered and water-stressed conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miner, Grace L; Bauerle, William L

    2017-09-01

    The Ball-Berry (BB) model of stomatal conductance (g s ) is frequently coupled with a model of assimilation to estimate water and carbon exchanges in plant canopies. The empirical slope (m) and 'residual' g s (g 0 ) parameters of the BB model influence transpiration estimates, but the time-intensive nature of measurement limits species-specific data on seasonal and stress responses. We measured m and g 0 seasonally and under different water availability for maize and sunflower. The statistical method used to estimate parameters impacted values nominally when inter-plant variability was low, but had substantial impact with larger inter-plant variability. Values for maize (m = 4.53 ± 0.65; g 0  = 0.017 ± 0.016 mol m -2 s -1 ) were 40% higher than other published values. In maize, we found no seasonal changes in m or g 0 , supporting the use of constant seasonal values, but water stress reduced both parameters. In sunflower, inter-plant variability of m and g 0 was large (m = 8.84 ± 3.77; g 0  = 0.354 ± 0.226 mol m -2 s -1 ), presenting a challenge to clear interpretation of seasonal and water stress responses - m values were stable seasonally, even as g 0 values trended downward, and m values trended downward with water stress while g 0 values declined substantially. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Snowmelt timing, phenology, and growing season length in conifer forests of Crater Lake National Park, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Leary, Donal S.; Kellermann, Jherime L.; Wayne, Chris

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is having significant impacts on montane and high-elevation areas globally. Warmer winter temperatures are driving reduced snowpack in the western USA with broad potential impacts on ecosystem dynamics of particular concern for protected areas. Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of ecological response to climate change and is associated with snowmelt timing. Human monitoring of climate impacts can be resource prohibitive for land management agencies, whereas remotely sensed phenology observations are freely available at a range of spatiotemporal scales. Little work has been done in regions dominated by evergreen conifer cover, which represents many mountain regions at temperate latitudes. We used moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) data to assess the influence of snowmelt timing and elevation on five phenology metrics (green up, maximum greenness, senescence, dormancy, and growing season length) within Crater Lake National Park, Oregon, USA from 2001 to 2012. Earlier annual mean snowmelt timing was significantly correlated with earlier onset of green up at the landscape scale. Snowmelt timing and elevation have significant explanatory power for phenology, though with high variability. Elevation has a moderate control on early season indicators such as snowmelt timing and green up and less on late-season variables such as senescence and growing season length. PCA results show that early season indicators and late season indicators vary independently. These results have important implications for ecosystem dynamics, management, and conservation, particularly of species such as whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis) in alpine and subalpine areas.

  11. Interannual and seasonal variability in short-term grazing impact of Euphausia superba in nearshore and offshore waters west of the Antarctic Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, R. M.; Quetin, L. B.; Haberman, K. L.

    1998-11-01

    Our focus in this paper is the interaction between macrozooplanktonic grazers and primary producers, and the interannual and seasonal variability in the Palmer Long-Term Ecological Research (Palmer LTER) study region from Anvers Island to Adelaide Island. Short-term grazing estimates are calculated by integrating (1) theoretical and experimental estimates of ingestion rates in response to the standing stock of phytoplankton, and (2) field measurements of phytoplankton standing stock and grazer biomass. Field data come from three austral summer cruises (January/February of 1993, 1994, and 1995) and one sequence of seasonal cruises (summer, fall and winter 1993). The relative and absolute abundance of the dominant macrozooplankton grazers, Euphausia superba and Salpa thompsoni, varied by at least an order of magnitude on the spatial and temporal scales observed. Mean grazing rates ranged from 0.4 to 9.0 μg chlorophyll m -2 h -1 for the Antarctic krill and salp populations over the three summer cruises. This leads to variability in the flow of carbon from the primary producers through the grazers on the same scales. Temporal and spatial variability in grazing impact and faecal pellet production are high.

  12. A 242-year seasonal-resolved speleothem record from Hainan Island: A window into variability of the precipitation δ18O in East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Y.; An, Z.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.; Fung, I. Y.; Zhang, H.; Tan, L.; Bi, H.

    2016-12-01

    Hainan Island is located at the gateway of East Asian summer monsoon to the continent. The typical tropical monsoon climate at Hainan island is characterized by wet season during the summer and autumn and dry season during the winter and spring. Here, we present a seasonal resolved speleothem record spanning 242 years ( 50-292 AD) from Xianren Cave (E109°25`, N18°34`), which is situated in the Baoting County, Hainan Province. The monitoring inside the cave shows that the relative humidity kept saturated during the observed periods (one and half years) while the temperature varied seasonally following the temperature changes outside the cave, but with much smaller amplitude. Monthly observation of drip water inside the cave indicates that the isotope composition of drip water mainly responds to the changes in the precipitation isotope composition with less than two months' resident time. The visible annual lamination and distinct fluctuations of calcite Mg, Sr and Ba concentrations corroborate that the high-frequency oscillations of calcite δ18O largely capture the seasonal variation of the isotope composition of precipitation, although the temperature effect cannot be excluded. By setting the heaviest value of annual variation of calcite δ18O as the beginning of each annual cycle, we transferred the δ18O record of 11.2 cm in depth to a δ18O record of 242-year in age. The δ18O record of stalagmite XR-3 demonstrate clearly the annual, decadal and multi-decadal variations of amplitude from 2 to 4‰, in addition to the seasonal oscillation of amplitude varied from 1.5 to 2.5‰. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition results show that the dominant variability (54.6% of the total variance) is captured by the components at the timescale of 3-7 year, while the components on timescales of 22-24 -year, 80-year and 120-year capture 35.0%, 7.0% and 3.4% of the variance, respectively. We contribute the variability of speleothem δ18O at the timescale of 3-7 -year to

  13. Drivers, mechanisms and long term variability of bottom seasonal hypoxia in the Black Sea north-western Shelf. Is there any recovery after eutrophication ?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capet, Arthur; Beckers, Jean-Marie; Grégoire, Marilaure

    2013-04-01

    The Black Sea North-western shelf (NWS) is a shallow eutrophic area in which seasonal stratification of the water column isolates bottom waters from the atmosphere and prevents ventilation to compensate for the large consumption of oxygen, due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments. A 3D coupled physical biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS at different temporal scales from seasonal to interannual (1981-2009) and to differentiate the driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication) of hypoxic conditions in bottom waters. Model skills are evaluated by comparison with 14500 in-situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean Database and the Black Sea Commission data. The choice of skill metrics and data subselections orientate the validation procedure towards specific aspects of the oxygen dynamics, and prove the model's ability to resolve the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of oxygen concentration as well as the spatial location of the oxygen depleted waters and the specific threshold of hypoxia. During the period 1981-2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS, receiving large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniestr and Dniepr rivers, and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian Bay of Constanta. In order to explain the interannual variability of bottom hypoxia and to disentangle its drivers, a statistical model (multiple linear regression) is proposed using the long time series of model results as input variables. This statistical model gives a general relationships that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate related variables. The use of four predictors allows to reproduce 78% of hypoxia interannual variability: the annual nitrate discharge (N), the sea surface temperature in the month preceding stratification (T ), the

  14. The Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variability of Diurnal Cloud Activity over the Tibetan Plateau

    OpenAIRE

    Hatsuki, Fujinami; Tetsuzo, Yasunari; Institute of Geoscience, University of Tsukuba; Institute of Geoscience, University of Tsukuba

    2001-01-01

    Seasonal variation of diurnal cloud activity(abbreviated DCA)over the Tibetan Plateau throughout the year is examined using 3-hourly geostationary meteorological satellite(GMS)data for 6-years(1989-1994). The DCA shows two distinct variance maxima in the seasonal cycle. One is in spring(pre-monsoon season), and the other is in the summer monsoon season. The DCA begins in late January, and reaches its maximum from March through April. The active DCA extends over almost the whole of the plateau...

  15. Reconstructing Past Seasonal to Multicentennial-Scale Variability in the NE Atlantic Ocean Using the Long-Lived Marine Bivalve Mollusk Glycymeris glycymeris

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds, D. J.; Hall, I. R.; Slater, S. M.; Scourse, J. D.; Halloran, P. R.; Sayer, M. D. J.

    2017-11-01

    The lack of long-term, highly resolved (annual to subannual) and absolutely dated baseline records of marine variability extending beyond the instrumental period (last 50-100 years) hinders our ability to develop a comprehensive understanding of the role the ocean plays in the climate system. Specifically, without such records, it remains difficult to fully quantify the range of natural climate variability mediated by the ocean and to robustly attribute recent changes to anthropogenic or natural drivers. Here we present a 211 year (1799-2010 C.E.; all dates hereafter are Common Era) seawater temperature (SWT) reconstruction from the northeast Atlantic Ocean derived from absolutely dated, annually resolved, oxygen isotope ratios recorded in the shell carbonate (δ18Oshell) of the long-lived marine bivalve mollusk Glycymeris glycymeris. The annual record was calibrated using subannually resolved δ18Oshell values drilled from multiple shells covering the instrumental period. Calibration verification statistics and spatial correlation analyses indicate that the δ18Oshell record contains significant skill at reconstructing Northeast Atlantic Ocean mean summer SWT variability associated with changes in subpolar gyre dynamics and the North Atlantic Current. Reconciling differences between the δ18Oshell data and corresponding growth increment width chronology demonstrates that 68% of the variability in G. glycymeris shell growth can be explained by the combined influence of biological productivity and SWT variability. These data suggest that G. glycymeris can provide seasonal to multicentennial absolutely dated baseline records of past marine variability that will lead to the development of a quantitative understanding of the role the marine environment plays in the global climate system.

  16. Phytoplankton dynamics in relation to seasonal variability and upwelling and relaxation patterns at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin over a four-year period.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tânia Vidal

    Full Text Available From June 2004 to December 2007, samples were weekly collected at a fixed station located at the mouth of Ria de Aveiro (West Iberian Margin. We examined the seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in composition and community structure of the phytoplankton in relation to the main environmental drivers and assessed the influence of the oceanographic regime, namely changes in frequency and intensity of upwelling events, over the dynamics of the phytoplankton assemblage. The samples were consistently handled and a final subset of 136 OTUs (taxa with relative abundance > 0.01% was subsequently submitted to various multivariate analyses. The phytoplankton assemblage showed significant changes at all temporal scales but with an overriding importance of seasonality over longer- (inter-annual or shorter-term fluctuations (upwelling-related. Sea-surface temperature, salinity and maximum upwelling index were retrieved as the main driver of seasonal change. Seasonal signal was most evident in the fluctuations of chlorophyll a concentration and in the high turnover from the winter to spring phytoplankton assemblage. The seasonal cycle of production and succession was disturbed by upwelling events known to disrupt thermal stratification and induce changes in the phytoplankton assemblage. Our results indicate that both the frequency and intensity of physical forcing were important drivers of such variability, but the outcome in terms of species composition was highly dependent on the available local pool of species and the timing of those events in relation to the seasonal cycle. We conclude that duration, frequency and intensity of upwelling events, which vary seasonally and inter-annually, are paramount for maintaining long-term phytoplankton diversity likely by allowing unstable coexistence and incorporating species turnover at different scales. Our results contribute to the understanding of the complex mechanisms of coastal phytoplankton dynamics in

  17. Drivers, mechanisms and long-term variability of seasonal hypoxia on the Black Sea northwestern shelf – is there any recovery after eutrophication?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Capet

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The Black Sea northwestern shelf (NWS is a shallow eutrophic area in which the seasonal stratification of the water column isolates the bottom waters from the atmosphere. This prevents ventilation from counterbalancing the large consumption of oxygen due to respiration in the bottom waters and in the sediments, and sets the stage for the development of seasonal hypoxia. A three-dimensional (3-D coupled physical–biogeochemical model is used to investigate the dynamics of bottom hypoxia in the Black Sea NWS, first at seasonal and then at interannual scales (1981–2009, and to differentiate its driving factors (climatic versus eutrophication. Model skills are evaluated by a quantitative comparison of the model results to 14 123 in situ oxygen measurements available in the NOAA World Ocean and the Black Sea Commission databases, using different error metrics. This validation exercise shows that the model is able to represent the seasonal and interannual variability of the oxygen concentration and of the occurrence of hypoxia, as well as the spatial distribution of oxygen-depleted waters. During the period 1981–2009, each year exhibits seasonal bottom hypoxia at the end of summer. This phenomenon essentially covers the northern part of the NWS – which receives large inputs of nutrients from the Danube, Dniester and Dnieper rivers – and extends, during the years of severe hypoxia, towards the Romanian bay of Constanta. An index H which merges the aspects of the spatial and temporal extension of the hypoxic event is proposed to quantify, for each year, the intensity of hypoxia as an environmental stressor. In order to explain the interannual variability of H and to disentangle its drivers, we analyze the long time series of model results by means of a stepwise multiple linear regression. This statistical model gives a general relationship that links the intensity of hypoxia to eutrophication and climate-related variables. A total of 82% of the

  18. The Canary Basin contribution to 26ºN AMOC Seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Hernández, M. D.; McCarthy, G.; Smeed, D.; Hernandez-Guerra, A.; Vélez-Belchí, P.

    2014-12-01

    Recent studies have shown that the seasonal transport of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is linked with seasonal density changes in the eastern boundary of the Atlantic. As measured by the RAPID/MOCHA array, the AMOC has a seasonal peak-to-peak value of 6 Sv, with two relative maximums in July and October. The relative maximum in October coincides with the weakest transport of the upper mid-ocean transport (UMO), from the Bahamas to the eastern boundary, whose amplitude is 4 Sv. The seasonally averaged dynamic height indicates that the major source of seasonal variability in the UMO is due to the eastern boundary in fall. Data from the RAPID/MOCHA array at 26ºN is analyzed together with the data from a 15-year mooring between the African coast and the Canary Islands at 28ºN, in the Lanzarote Passage, the so-called Eastern Boundary Current Mooring (EBC4). The seasonal dynamics of the eastern boundary is analyzed: the recirculation of the Canary Current in fall through the Lanzarote Passage, the Rossby wave formation and the wind forcing. Significant correlations are found between the transport through the LP and the UMO. The transport of the North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) as measured by the EBC4 mooring has a correlation of 0.75 at zero lag with the UMO transport, and the transport of the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) and Mediterranean Water (MW) are correlated 0.77/0.85 respectively, with a lag of one moth with the UMO. The results stress the importance of the eastern boundary in determining the seasonal variability of the AMOC, as measured by the RAPID/MOCHA array.

  19. Seasonal variability of physico–chemical characteristics of the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Salinity varied spatially and temporally and seasonally during ebb and flood tide conditions. ... The tidal varia- tion at the mouth is from 6.1 m at springs to 0.22 m at neaps. The fresh water discharge ranges from a peak value of 4250m3 s−1 to almost zero in the ...... National Conference on Harbour and Ocean Engineer-.

  20. Seasonal Precipitation Variability Effects on Carbon Exchange in a Tropical Dry Forest of Northwest Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verduzco, V.; Garatuza-Payan, J.; Yépez, E. A.; Watts, C. J.; Rodriguez, J. C.; Robles-Morua, A.; Vivoni, E. R.

    2015-12-01

    The Tropical Dry Forest (TDF) cover a large area in tropical and subtropical regions in the Americas and its productivity is thought to have an important contribution to the atmospheric carbon fluxes. However, due to this ecosystem complex dynamics, our understanding about the mechanisms controlling net ecosystem exchange is limited. In this study, five years of continue water and carbon fluxes measurements from eddy covariance complemented with remotely sensed vegetation greenness were used to investigate the ecosystem carbon balance of a TDF in the North American Monsoon region under different hydro climatic conditions. We identified a large CO2 efflux at the start of the summer season that is strongly related to the preceding winter precipitation and greenness. Since this CO2 efflux occurs prior to vegetation green-up, we infer a predominant heterotrophic control owed to high decomposition of accumulated labile soil organic matter from prior growing season. Overall, ecosystem respiration has an important effect on the net ecosystem production over the year, but can be overwhelmed by the strength of the primary productivity during the monsoon season. Precipitation characteristics during the monsoon have significant controls on sustaining carbon fixation in the TDF ecosystem into the fall season. A threshold of ~350 to 400 mm of summer precipitation was identify to switch the annual carbon balance in the TDF ecosystem from a net source (+102 g C/m2/yr) to a net sink (-249 g C/m2/yr). This research points at the needs for understanding the potential effects of changing seasonal precipitation patterns on ecosystem dynamics and carbon sequestration in subtropical regions.

  1. Season and severity of prescribed burn in ponderosa pine forests: implications for understory native and exotic plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky K. Kerns; Walter G. Thies; Christine G. Niwa

    2006-01-01

    We investigated herbaceous richness and cover in relation to fire season and severity, and other variables, five growing seasons following prescribed fires. Data were collected from six stands consisting of three randomly applied treatments: no burn, spring burn, and fall burn. Fall burns had significantly more exotic/native annual/biennial (an/bi) species and greater...

  2. Satellite view of seasonal greenness trends and controls in South Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmah, Sangeeta; Jia, Gensuo; Zhang, Anzhi

    2018-03-01

    South Asia (SA) has been considered one of the most remarkable regions for changing vegetation greenness, accompanying its major expansion of agricultural activities, especially irrigated farming. The influence of the monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness is poorly understood in this area. Herein, we used the satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) to investigate various spatiotemporal patterns in vegetation activity during summer and winter monsoon (SM and WM) seasons and among irrigated croplands (IC), rainfed croplands (RC), and natural vegetation (NV) areas during 1982–2013. Seasonal NDVI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and land use and cover changes (LUCC) have also been investigated. This study demonstrates that the seasonal dynamics of vegetation could improve the detailed understanding of vegetation productivity over the region. We found distinct greenness trends between two monsoon seasons and among the major land use/cover classes. Winter monsoons contributed greater variability to the overall vegetation dynamics of SA. Major greening occurred due to the increased productivity over irrigated croplands during the winter monsoon season; meanwhile, browning trends were prominent over NV areas during the same season. Maximum temperatures had been increasing tremendously during the WM season; however, the precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LUCC revealed coupled effects on the long term NDVI trends in NV areas, especially in the hilly regions, whereas anthropogenic activities (agricultural advancements) played a pivotal role in the rest of the area. Until now, advanced cultivation techniques have proven to be beneficial for the region in terms of the productivity of croplands. However, the crop productivity is at risk under climate change.

  3. Nutrient Dynamics of Estuarine Invertebrates Are Shaped by Feeding Guild Rather than Seasonal River Flow.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly Ortega-Cisneros

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the variability of carbon and nitrogen elemental content, stoichiometry and diet proportions of invertebrates in two sub-tropical estuaries in South Africa experiencing seasonal changes in rainfall and river inflow. The elemental ratios and stable isotopes of abiotic sources, zooplankton and macrozoobenthos taxa were analyzed over a dry/wet seasonal cycle. Nutrient content (C, N and stoichiometry of suspended particulate matter exhibited significant spatio-temporal variations in both estuaries, which were explained by the variability in river inflow. Sediment particulate matter (%C, %N and C:N was also influenced by the variability in river flow but to a lesser extent. The nutrient content and ratios of the analyzed invertebrates did not significantly vary among seasons with the exception of the copepod Pseudodiaptomus spp. (C:N and the tanaid Apseudes digitalis (%N, C:N. These changes did not track the seasonal variations of the suspended or sediment particulate matter. Our results suggest that invertebrates managed to maintain their stoichiometry independent of the seasonality in river flow. A significant variability in nitrogen content among estuarine invertebrates was recorded, with highest % N recorded from predators and lowest %N from detritivores. Due to the otherwise general lack of seasonal differences in elemental content and stoichiometry, feeding guild was a major factor shaping the nutrient dynamics of the estuarine invertebrates. The nutrient richer suspended particulate matter was the preferred food source over sediment particulate matter for most invertebrate consumers in many, but not all seasons. The most distinct preference for suspended POM as a food source was apparent from the temporarily open/closed system after the estuary had breached, highlighting the importance of river flow as a driver of invertebrate nutrient dynamics under extreme events conditions. Moreover, our data showed that

  4. Nutrient Dynamics of Estuarine Invertebrates Are Shaped by Feeding Guild Rather than Seasonal River Flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega-Cisneros, Kelly; Scharler, Ursula M

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the variability of carbon and nitrogen elemental content, stoichiometry and diet proportions of invertebrates in two sub-tropical estuaries in South Africa experiencing seasonal changes in rainfall and river inflow. The elemental ratios and stable isotopes of abiotic sources, zooplankton and macrozoobenthos taxa were analyzed over a dry/wet seasonal cycle. Nutrient content (C, N) and stoichiometry of suspended particulate matter exhibited significant spatio-temporal variations in both estuaries, which were explained by the variability in river inflow. Sediment particulate matter (%C, %N and C:N) was also influenced by the variability in river flow but to a lesser extent. The nutrient content and ratios of the analyzed invertebrates did not significantly vary among seasons with the exception of the copepod Pseudodiaptomus spp. (C:N) and the tanaid Apseudes digitalis (%N, C:N). These changes did not track the seasonal variations of the suspended or sediment particulate matter. Our results suggest that invertebrates managed to maintain their stoichiometry independent of the seasonality in river flow. A significant variability in nitrogen content among estuarine invertebrates was recorded, with highest % N recorded from predators and lowest %N from detritivores. Due to the otherwise general lack of seasonal differences in elemental content and stoichiometry, feeding guild was a major factor shaping the nutrient dynamics of the estuarine invertebrates. The nutrient richer suspended particulate matter was the preferred food source over sediment particulate matter for most invertebrate consumers in many, but not all seasons. The most distinct preference for suspended POM as a food source was apparent from the temporarily open/closed system after the estuary had breached, highlighting the importance of river flow as a driver of invertebrate nutrient dynamics under extreme events conditions. Moreover, our data showed that estuarine

  5. Diurnal and seasonal variability in size-dependent atmospheric deposition fluxes of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in an urban center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Zhang, Bao-Zhong; Li, Shao-Meng; Zhang, Lei-Ming; Staebler, Ralf; Zeng, Eddy Y.

    2012-09-01

    Atmospheric gaseous and size-segregated particle samples were collected from urban Guangzhou at the heights of 100 and 150 m above the ground in daytime and at night in August and December 2010, and were analyzed for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Particulate PAHs were more abundant at night than in daytime, and significantly higher in winter than in summer. The observed vertical, diurnal, and seasonal variability in the occurrences of PAH were attributed to varying meteorological conditions and atmospheric boundary layers. More than 60% of the particulate PAHs were contained in particles in the accumulation mode with an aerodynamic diameter (Dp) in the range of 0.1-1.8 μm. Different mass transfer velocities by volatilization and condensation are considered the main causes for the different particle size distributions among individual PAHs, while combustion at different temperatures and atmospheric transport were probable causes of the observed seasonal variation in the size distribution of PAHs. Based on the modeled size-dependent dry deposition velocities, daily mean dry deposition fluxes of particulate PAHs ranged from 604 to 1190 ng m-2 d-1, with PAHs in coarse particles (Dp > 1.8 μm) accounting for 55-95% of the total fluxes. In addition, gaseous PAHs were estimated to contribute 0.6-3.1% to the total dry deposition fluxes if a conservative dry deposition velocity for gaseous species (2 × 10-4 m s-1) were used. Finally, disequilibrium phase partitioning, meteorological conditions and atmospheric transport were regarded as the main reasons for the variances in dry deposition velocities of individual PAHs.

  6. PHOTOMETRY OF VARIABLE STARS FROM DOME A, ANTARCTICA: RESULTS FROM THE 2010 OBSERVING SEASON

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Lingzhi; Zhu, Zonghong [Department of Astronomy, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Macri, Lucas M.; Wang, Lifan [Mitchell Institute for Fundamental Physics and Astronomy, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Ashley, Michael C. B.; Lawrence, Jon S.; Luong-Van, Daniel; Storey, John W. V. [School of Physics, University of New South Wales, NSW 2052 (Australia); Cui, Xiangqun; Feng, Long-Long; Gong, Xuefei; Liu, Qiang; Shang, Zhaohui; Yang, Huigen; Yang, Ji; Yuan, Xiangyan; Zhou, Xu; Zhu, Zhenxi [Chinese Center for Antarctic Astronomy, Nanjing 210008 (China); Pennypacker, Carl R. [Center for Astrophysics, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States); York, Donald G., E-mail: wanglingzhi@bao.ac.cn [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics and Enrico Fermi Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States)

    2013-12-01

    We present results from a season of observations with the Chinese Small Telescope ARray, obtained over 183 days of the 2010 Antarctic winter. We carried out high-cadence time-series aperture photometry of 9125 stars with i ∼< 15.3 mag located in a 23 deg{sup 2} region centered on the south celestial pole. We identified 188 variable stars, including 67 new objects relative to our 2008 observations, thanks to broader synoptic coverage, a deeper magnitude limit, and a larger field of view. We used the photometric data set to derive site statistics from Dome A. Based on two years of observations, we find that extinction due to clouds at this site is less than 0.1 and 0.4 mag during 45% and 75% of the dark time, respectively.

  7. Seasonal variability of mixed layer in the central Arabian Sea and its implication on nutrients and primary productivity

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    PrasannaKumar, S.; Narvekar, J.

    -1 Seasonal variability of mixed layer in the central Arabian Sea and its implication on nutrients and primary productivity S. Prasanna Kumar and Jayu Narvekar National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa-403 004, India... on a 2? x 4? grids up to a depth of 500m. Monthly mean temperature and salinity data were used to calculate the sigma-t values (UNESCO, 1981). We also used nitrate, chlorophyll a and primary productivity data in the upper 120m water column...

  8. Pollen foraging in colonies of Melipona bicolor (Apidae, Meliponini): effects of season, colony size and queen number.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilário, S D; Imperatriz-Fonseca, V L

    2009-01-01

    We evaluated the ratio between the number of pollen foragers and the total number of bees entering colonies of Melipona bicolor, a facultative polygynous species of stingless bees. The variables considered in our analysis were: seasonality, colony size and the number of physogastric queens in each colony. The pollen forager ratios varied significantly between seasons; the ratio was higher in winter than in summer. However, colony size and number of queens per colony had no significant effect. We conclude that seasonal differences in pollen harvest are related to the production of sexuals and to the number of individuals and their body size.

  9. Droughts in Amazonia: Spatiotemporal Variability, Teleconnections, and Seasonal Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Carlos H. R.; AghaKouchak, Amir

    2017-12-01

    Most Amazonia drought studies have focused on rainfall deficits and their impact on river discharges, while the analysis of other important driver variables, such as temperature and soil moisture, has attracted less attention. Here we try to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of Amazonia droughts and associated climate teleconnections as characterized by the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), which integrates information from rainfall deficit, temperature anomalies, and soil moisture capacity. The results reveal that Amazonia droughts are most related to one dominant pattern across the entire region, followed by two seesaw kind of patterns: north-south and east-west. The main two modes are correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic oceans. The teleconnections associated with global SST are then used to build a seasonal forecast model for PDSI over Amazonia based on predictors obtained from a sparse canonical correlation analysis approach. A unique feature of the presented drought prediction method is using only a few number of predictors to avoid excessive noise in the predictor space. Cross-validated results show correlations between observed and predicted spatial average PDSI up to 0.60 and 0.45 for lead times of 5 and 9 months, respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the region that, based on cross-validation results, leads to appreciable forecast skills for lead times beyond 4 months. This is a step forward in better understanding the dynamics of Amazonia droughts and improving risk assessment and management, through improved drought forecasting.

  10. Predictability of Seasonal Rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngaina, J. N.

    2016-12-01

    The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary mode of climate variability in the Greater of Africa (GHA). The expected impacts of climate variability and change on water, agriculture, and food resources in GHA underscore the importance of reliable and accurate seasonal climate predictions. The study evaluated different model selection criteria which included the Coefficient of determination (R2), Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), and the Fisher information approximation (FIA). A forecast scheme based on the optimal model was developed to predict the October-November-December (OND) and March-April-May (MAM) rainfall. The predictability of GHA rainfall based on ENSO was quantified based on composite analysis, correlations and contingency tables. A test for field-significance considering the properties of finiteness and interdependence of the spatial grid was applied to avoid correlations by chance. The study identified FIA as the optimal model selection criterion. However, complex model selection criteria (FIA followed by BIC) performed better compared to simple approach (R2 and AIC). Notably, operational seasonal rainfall predictions over the GHA makes of simple model selection procedures e.g. R2. Rainfall is modestly predictable based on ENSO during OND and MAM seasons. El Nino typically leads to wetter conditions during OND and drier conditions during MAM. The correlations of ENSO indices with rainfall are statistically significant for OND and MAM seasons. Analysis based on contingency tables shows higher predictability of OND rainfall with the use of ENSO indices derived from the Pacific and Indian Oceans sea surfaces showing significant improvement during OND season. The predictability based on ENSO for OND rainfall is robust on a decadal scale compared to MAM. An ENSO-based scheme based on an optimal model selection criterion can thus provide skillful rainfall predictions over GHA. This study concludes that the

  11. Assessing the seasonal variability of ephemeral gully erosion using high-frequency monitoring: case study in a fully cultivated catchment (The Pommeroye, Northern France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patault, E.; Alary, C.; Franke, C.; Gauthier, A.; Abriak, N. E.

    2017-12-01

    Gully erosion results in on-site and off-site problems including the loss of cultivated soils, the silting of riverbeds and dams as well as infrastructure and property damage by muddy floods. Regions of intensive agricultural production situated on the European loess belt are particularly affected. Recently a growing interest has focused on ephemeral gullies since there have been recognized as a major contributor to the sediment yield in small agricultural catchment in this area. The aims of this case study are (i) to quantify the sediment yield transported by ephemeral gullies, (ii) to identify parameters that control the function of the hydro-sedimentary response and (iii) to evaluate the influence of seasonal variability on the ephemeral gully erosion. For this study a high-frequency monitoring station was implemented. For each flood event, 8 variables related to hydro-sedimentary and rainfall dynamics are calculated and the relationships between these variables are analyzed using the Pearson correlation matrix and Principal Component Analysis. During the first year of monitoring (03/2016-03/2017), 22 flood events were recorded of which 75% occurred in spring and winter. The specific sediment yield was evaluated to 30 t km-2 yr-1 which is conventional for the study region but the results show a highly variable seasonal distribution; 90% of the sedimentary transfer occurred in winter and autumn. The main reasons were a high cumulative rainfall and a long duration for the events. The maximum suspended sediment concentration at the catchment outlet was observed in spring, likely due to maximum rainfall intensities in that season. Also, a huge variability between the events is observed; e.g. one exceptional rain storm in 11/2016 represents 45% of the total sediment yield of the study period. For the monitored 22 events, 2 different types of hysteresis behavior were observed: (i) clockwise and (ii) complex. In winter, only clockwise hysteresis was observed. These

  12. The seasonal cycle and interannual variability of surface energy balance and melt in the ablation zone of the west Greenland ice sheet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Broeke, M.R.; Smeets, C.J.P.P.; van de Wal, R.S.W.

    2011-01-01

    We present the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the surface energy balance (SEB) in the ablation zone of the west Greenland ice sheet, using seven years (September 2003–August 2010) of hourly observations from three automatic weather stations (AWS). The AWS are situated along the 67◦ N

  13. [On the seasonality of dermatoses: a retrospective analysis of search engine query data depending on the season].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, M J; Springer, S; Kaatz, M

    2014-09-01

    The volume of search engine queries about disease-relevant items reflects public interest and correlates with disease prevalence as proven by the example of flu (influenza). Other influences include media attention or holidays. The present work investigates if the seasonality of prevalence or symptom severity of dermatoses correlates with search engine query data. The relative weekly volume of dermatological relevant search terms was assessed by the online tool Google Trends for the years 2009-2013. For each item, the degree of seasonality was calculated via frequency analysis and a geometric approach. Many dermatoses show a marked seasonality, reflected by search engine query volumes. Unexpected seasonal variations of these queries suggest a previously unknown variability of the respective disease prevalence. Furthermore, using the example of allergic rhinitis, a close correlation of search engine query data with actual pollen count can be demonstrated. In many cases, search engine query data are appropriate to estimate seasonal variability in prevalence of common dermatoses. This finding may be useful for real-time analysis and formation of hypotheses concerning pathogenetic or symptom aggravating mechanisms and may thus contribute to improvement of diagnostics and prevention of skin diseases.

  14. Factors influencing the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Auda Fares

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The recognition of seasonal patterns in infectious disease occurrence dates back at least as far as the hippocratic era, but the mechanisms underlying these fluctuations remain poorly understood. Many classes of mechanistic hypotheses have been proposed to explain seasonality of various directly transmitted diseases, including at least the following; human activity, seasonal variability in human immune system function, seasonal variations in vitamin D levels, seasonality of melatonin, and pathogen infectivity. In this short paper will briefly discuss the role of these factors in the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases.

  15. Seasonal morphological variability in an in situ Cyanobacteria monoculture: example from a persistent Cylindrospermopsis bloom in Lake Catemaco, Veracruz, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Owen Lind

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The phrase cyanobacteria bloom implies a transient condition in which one to few species dominates communities. In this paper we describe a condition in which the bloom is of multi-year duration consisting of different morphologies of a single cyanobacteria species. Lake Catemaco, Veracruz, México maintained a year-round massive (108 trichomes L-1 population of potentially toxin-producing cyanobacteria, Cylindrospermopsis spp. The trichomes are present as straight and coiled morphotypes.  The relative trichome morphology abundance varied with rainy (June – October and dry seasons (November – May, but total trichome abundance did not vary.  Coiled trichomes and heterocytes (occurring only on coiled trichomes were significantly more abundant, both absolutely and relatively, during the dry season. Both coiled trichome and heterocyte mean volumes were significantly smaller during the rainy season than during the dry season.  Biovolumes were largest in January when water temperature was 5º C cooler suggesting buoyancy as a morphology-determining factor. However, with a more than three-fold lower TIN concentration during the dry season, we hypothesized that the coiled morphotype became abundant primarily because it formed heterocytes, which the straight morphotype did not. Spatial trichome and heterocyte abundance differences were small among the 15 lake sites (average CV for all dates = 20%. However, there was a pattern of increased heterocyte and coiled trichome abundance from lake inflow, as a nitrogen source, to outflow during the rainy season. The total volume of heterocytes per litre of lake water increased progressively four-fold from a minimum early in the rainy season to a maximum at the end of the dry season. Morphological diversity, as seen in Lake Catemaco, can partially compensate for the lack of species diversity in determination of community structure.

  16. The influence of meteorological variables on the development of deep venous thrombosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen K; Simpson, A John; Murchison, John T

    2009-10-01

    The influence of weather on deep venous thrombosis (DVT) incidence remains controversial. We aimed to characterize the temporal association between DVT and meteorological variables including atmospheric pressure. Data relating to hospital admissions with DVT in Scotland were collected retrospectively for a 20 year period for which corresponding meteorological recordings were available. Weather variables were calculated as weighted daily averages to adjust for variations in population density. Seasonal variation in DVT and short-term effects of weather variables on the relative risk of developing DVT were assess using Poisson regression modelling. The models allowed for the identification of lag periods between variation in the weather and DVT presentation. A total of 37,336 cases of DVT were recorded. There was significant seasonal variation in DVT with a winter peak. Seasonal variation in wind speed and temperature were significantly associated with seasonal variation in DVT. When studying more immediate meteorological influences, low atmospheric pressure, high wind speed and high rainfall were significantly associated with an increased risk of DVT approximately 9-10 days later. The effect was most strikingly demonstrated for atmospheric pressure, every 10 millibar decrease in pressure being associated with a 2.1% increase in relative risk of DVT. Alterations in weather have a small but significant impact upon the incidence of DVT. DVT is particularly associated with reduction in atmospheric pressure giving weight to the hypothesis that reduced cabin pressure in long haul flights contributes to DVT. These findings have implications for our understanding of the pathogenesis of DVT.

  17. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of the phytoplankton communities in an upwelling area of the Alborán Sea (SW Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesús M. Mercado

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Temporal variability (seasonal and inter-annual in the assembly of phytoplankton communities from the northern Alborán Sea was investigated. For this purpose, the taxonomic composition of the micro- and nano-phytoplankton communities at three fixed stations was determined every three months from 1994 to 2002. A total of 357 different taxa were identified. Most of them (about 54% were diatom species belonging to 57 genera. Dinoflagellates and coccolitophorids accounted for 118 and 30 taxa respectively. Two time periods could be differentiated with respect to the cell abundance. Thus, the mean abundance from 1994 to 1999 was 338 cell ml-1 and it dropped to about 60 cell ml-1 during the period 2000-2002. Diatoms and un-identified small flagellates dominated the communities during this first period, although a significant increase in the abundance of coccolitophorids occurred after 1997. Pseudo-nitzschia, Leptocylindrus and Chaetoceros were the dominant genera. In contrast, the coccolitophorids Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa spp. quantitatively dominated the communities from 2000 to 2002. These shifts in the community assembly were assessed by performing a sample-oriented stepwise discriminant analysis (SDA. The analysis separated the samples into three year-groups, with great inter-annual variability. In contrast, the SDA did not find any seasonal sucessional pattern. In spite of this result, chlorophyll a and cell abundance tended to be higher in the spring period, which has been described for the whole Alborán basin. The nutrient concentrations in the 75 m upper seawater layer had inter-annual fluctuations. Thus, NO3-+NO2-, PO4-3 and Si(OH4 concentrations decreased significantly in 1997-1998. Additionally, lower Si(OH4 concentrations and Si:P molar ratios were obtained in 2000. These results suggest that the inter-annual shifts in the phytoplankton taxonomic composition were due to alterations in the nutrient regime. In this paper we

  18. The Role of Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Carbon in the Subpolar North Atlantic - a Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Signorini, Sergio; Hakkinen, Sirpa; Gudmundsson, K.; Olsen, A.; Omar, A. M.; Olafsson, J.; Reverdin, G.; Henson, S. A.; McClain, C. R.; Worthen, D. L.

    2014-01-01

    We developed an ecosystem/biogeochemical model system, which includes multiple phytoplankton functional groups and carbon cycle dynamics, and applied it to investigate physical-biological interactions in Icelandic waters. Satellite and in situ data were used to evaluate the model. Surface seasonal cycle amplitudes and biases of key parameters (DIC, TA, pCO2, air-sea CO2 flux, and nutrients) are significantly improved when compared to surface observations by prescribing deep water values and trends, based on available data. The seasonality of the coccolithophore and "other phytoplankton" (diatoms and dinoflagellates) blooms is in general agreement with satellite ocean color products. Nutrient supply, biomass and calcite concentrations are modulated by light and mixed layer depth seasonal cycles. Diatoms are the most abundant phytoplankton, with a large bloom in early spring and a secondary bloom in fall. The diatom bloom is followed by blooms of dinoflagellates and coccolithophores. The effect of biological changes on the seasonal variability of the surface ocean pCO2 is nearly twice the temperature effect, in agreement with previous studies. The inclusion of multiple phytoplankton functional groups in the model played a major role in the accurate representation of CO2 uptake by biology. For instance, at the peak of the bloom, the exclusion of coccolithophores causes an increase in alkalinity of up to 4 µmol kg(sup -1) with a corresponding increase in DIC of up to 16 µmol kg(sup -1). During the peak of the bloom in summer, the net effect of the absence of the coccolithophores bloom is an increase in pCO2 of more than 20 µatm and a reduction of atmospheric CO2 uptake of more than 6 mmolm(sup -2) d(sup -1). On average, the impact of coccolithophores is an increase of air-sea CO2 flux of about 27 %. Considering the areal extent of the bloom from satellite images within the Irminger and Icelandic Basins, this reduction translates into an annual mean of nearly 1500

  19. Climatic controls of the interannual to decadal variability in Saudi Arabian dust activity: Towards the development of a seasonal prediction tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Y.; Notaro, M.; Liu, Z.; Alkolibi, F.; Fadda, E.; Bakhrjy, F.

    2013-12-01

    Atmospheric dust significantly influences the climate system, as well as human life in Saudi Arabia. Skillful seasonal prediction of dust activity with climatic variables will help prevent some negative social impacts of dust storms. Yet, the climatic regulators on Saudi Arabian dust activity remain largely unaddressed. Remote sensing and station observations show consistent seasonal cycles in Saudi Arabian dust activity, which peaks in spring and summer. The climatic controls on springtime and summertime Saudi Arabian dust activity during 1975-2010 are studied using observational and reanalysis data. Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the observed Saudi Arabian dust storm frequency shows a dominant homogeneous pattern across the country, which has distinct interannual and decadal variations, as revealed by the power spectrum. Regression and correlation analyses reveal that Saudi Arabian dust activity is largely tied to precipitation on the Arabian Peninsula in spring and northwesterly (Shamal) wind in summer. On the seasonal-interannual time scale, warm El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase (El Niño) in winter-to-spring inhibits spring dust activity by increasing the precipitation over the Rub'al Khali Desert, a major dust source region on the southern Arabian Peninsula; warm ENSO and warm Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) in winter-to-spring favor less summer dust activity by producing anomalously low sea-level pressure over eastern north Africa and Arabian Peninsula, which leads to the reduced Shamal wind speed. The decadal variation in dust activity is likely associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which impacts Sahel rainfall and North African dust, and likely dust transport to Saudi Arabia. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and tropical Indian Ocean SST also have influence on the decadal variation in Saudi Arabian dust activity, by altering precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula and summer Shamal wind speed. Using eastern

  20. Intraindividual variability of boldness is repeatable across contexts in a wild lizard.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Highcock

    Full Text Available Animals do not behave in exactly the same way when repeatedly tested in the same context or situation, even once systematic variation, such as habituation, has been controlled for. This unpredictability is called intraindividual variability (IIV and has been little studied in animals. Here we investigated how IIV in boldness (estimated by flight initiation distances changed across two seasons--the dry, non-breeding season and the wet, breeding season--in a wild population of the Namibian rock agama, Agama planiceps. We found significant differences in IIV both between individuals and seasons, and IIV was higher in the wet season, suggesting plasticity in IIV. Further, IIV was highly repeatable (r = 0.61 between seasons and we found strong negative correlations between consistent individual differences in flight initiation distances, i.e. their boldness, and individuals' IIVs. We suggest that to understand personality in animals, researchers should generate a personality 'profile' that includes not only the relative level of a trait (i.e. its personality, but also its plasticity and variability under natural conditions.

  1. Spatial variability and trends of the rain intensity over Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kambezidis, H. D.; Larissi, I. K.; Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.

    2010-07-01

    In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the mean annual rain intensity in Greece are examined during a 41-year period (1962-2002). The meteorological datasets concern monthly rain amounts (mm) and the respective monthly durations (h) recorded at thirty two meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed on Greek territory, in order to calculate the mean monthly rain intensity. All the rain time series used in the analysis were tested by the application of the short-cut Bartlett test of homogeneity. The spatial distribution of the mean annual rain intensity is studied using the Kriging interpolation method, while the temporal variability, concerning the mean annual rain intensity trends along with their significance (Mann-Kendall test), is analysed. The findings of the analysis show that statistically significant negative trends (95% confidence level) appear mainly in the west sub-regions of Greece, while statistically significant positive trends (95% confidence level) appear in the wider area of Athens and the complex of Cyclades Islands. Further analysis concerning the seasonal rain intensity is needed, because there are different seasonal patterns, taking into account that, convective rain in Greece occurs mainly within the summer season.

  2. Seasonal variability of foliar photosynthetic and morphological traits and drought impacts in a Mediterranean mixed forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperlich, D; Chang, C T; Peñuelas, J; Gracia, C; Sabaté, S

    2015-05-01

    The Mediterranean region is a hot spot of climate change vulnerable to increased droughts and heat waves. Scaling carbon fluxes from leaf to landscape levels is particularly challenging under drought conditions. We aimed to improve the mechanistic understanding of the seasonal acclimation of photosynthesis and morphology in sunlit and shaded leaves of four Mediterranean trees (Quercus ilex L., Pinus halepensis Mill., Arbutus unedo L. and Quercus pubescens Willd.) under natural conditions. Vc,max and Jmax were not constant, and mesophyll conductance was not infinite, as assumed in most terrestrial biosphere models, but varied significantly between seasons, tree species and leaf position. Favourable conditions in winter led to photosynthetic recovery and growth in the evergreens. Under moderate drought, adjustments in the photo/biochemistry and stomatal/mesophyllic diffusion behaviour effectively protected the photosynthetic machineries. Severe drought, however, induced early leaf senescence mostly in A. unedo and Q. pubescens, and significantly increased leaf mass per area in Q. ilex and P. halepensis. Shaded leaves had lower photosynthetic potentials but cushioned negative effects during stress periods. Species-specificity, seasonal variations and leaf position are key factors to explain vegetation responses to abiotic stress and hold great potential to reduce uncertainties in terrestrial biosphere models especially under drought conditions. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. On the distributions of annual and seasonal daily rainfall extremes in central Arizona and their spatial variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascaro, Giuseppe

    2018-04-01

    This study uses daily rainfall records of a dense network of 240 gauges in central Arizona to gain insights on (i) the variability of the seasonal distributions of rainfall extremes; (ii) how the seasonal distributions affect the shape of the annual distribution; and (iii) the presence of spatial patterns and orographic control for these distributions. For this aim, recent methodological advancements in peak-over-threshold analysis and application of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) were used to assess the suitability of the GPD hypothesis and improve the estimation of its parameters, while limiting the effect of short sample sizes. The distribution of daily rainfall extremes was found to be heavy-tailed (i.e., GPD shape parameter ξ > 0) during the summer season, dominated by convective monsoonal thunderstorms. The exponential distribution (a special case of GPD with ξ = 0) was instead showed to be appropriate for modeling wintertime daily rainfall extremes, mainly caused by cold fronts transported by westerly flow. The annual distribution exhibited a mixed behavior, with lighter upper tails than those found in summer. A hybrid model mixing the two seasonal distributions was demonstrated capable of reproducing the annual distribution. Organized spatial patterns, mainly controlled by elevation, were observed for the GPD scale parameter, while ξ did not show any clear control of location or orography. The quantiles returned by the GPD were found to be very similar to those provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Atlas 14, which used the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Results of this work are useful to improve statistical modeling of daily rainfall extremes at high spatial resolution and provide diagnostic tools for assessing the ability of climate models to simulate extreme events.

  4. Seasonality of fire weather strongly influences fire regimes in South Florida savanna-grassland landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William J Platt

    Full Text Available Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature. We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993-2009 data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires over a 13-year period with fire records (1997-2009. Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with

  5. Seasonality of Fire Weather Strongly Influences Fire Regimes in South Florida Savanna-Grassland Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platt, William J.; Orzell, Steve L.; Slocum, Matthew G.

    2015-01-01

    Fire seasonality, an important characteristic of fire regimes, commonly is delineated using seasons based on single weather variables (rainfall or temperature). We used nonparametric cluster analyses of a 17-year (1993–2009) data set of weather variables that influence likelihoods and spread of fires (relative humidity, air temperature, solar radiation, wind speed, soil moisture) to explore seasonality of fire in pine savanna-grassland landscapes at the Avon Park Air Force Range in southern Florida. A four-variable, three-season model explained more variation within fire weather variables than models with more seasons. The three-season model also delineated intra-annual timing of fire more accurately than a conventional rainfall-based two-season model. Two seasons coincided roughly with dry and wet seasons based on rainfall. The third season, which we labeled the fire season, occurred between dry and wet seasons and was characterized by fire-promoting conditions present annually: drought, intense solar radiation, low humidity, and warm air temperatures. Fine fuels consisting of variable combinations of pyrogenic pine needles, abundant C4 grasses, and flammable shrubs, coupled with low soil moisture, and lightning ignitions early in the fire season facilitate natural landscape-scale wildfires that burn uplands and across wetlands. We related our three season model to fires with different ignition sources (lightning, military missions, and prescribed fires) over a 13-year period with fire records (1997–2009). Largest wildfires originate from lightning and military ignitions that occur within the early fire season substantially prior to the peak of lightning strikes in the wet season. Prescribed ignitions, in contrast, largely occur outside the fire season. Our delineation of a pronounced fire season provides insight into the extent to which different human-derived fire regimes mimic lightning fire regimes. Delineation of a fire season associated with timing of

  6. Spatial and seasonal variations of fish assemblages in mangrove creek systems in Zanzibar (Tanzania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mwandya, Augustine W.; Gullström, Martin; Andersson, Mathias H.; Öhman, Marcus C.; Mgaya, Yunus D.; Bryceson, Ian

    2010-11-01

    Spatial and seasonal variations of fish assemblage composition were studied in three non-estuarine mangrove creeks of Zanzibar (Tanzania). Fish were collected monthly for one year at three sites (lower, intermediate and upper reaches) in each creek using a seine net (each haul covering 170 m 2). Density, species number and diversity of fish were all higher at sites with dense cover of macrophytes (seagrass and macroalgae) than over unvegetated sandy sites. In general, fish assemblages mainly comprised juveniles of a few abundant taxa, e.g. Mugil cephalus, Mugilidae spp. and Leiognathus equulus at sites with mud substratum and Gerres oyena, Lethrinus harak and Sillago sihama at sites dominated by macrophytes. Multivariate analyses revealed significant separations in fish assemblage composition within the two creeks where the bottom substratum differed among sites. Overall, season seemed to have little effect on density, species number, diversity index ( H') and assemblage structure of fish. Water condition variables were also relatively stable across the season, although a short-term fluctuation primarily induced by decreased salinity, occurred during the heavy rains in April and May. Fish assemblage structure was not significantly affected by any of the abiotic factors tested. However, significant regressions were found between the other fish variables and environmental variables, but since these associations were mostly species-specific and generally inconsistent, we suggest that the overall distribution patterns of fish were mainly an effect of particular substrate preferences of fish species rather than contemporary water conditions.

  7. Improving seasonal forecasts of hydroclimatic variables through the state of multiple large-scale climate signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.; Block, P. J.

    2017-12-01

    Increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes combined with more frequent and intense extreme events are challenging water systems management worldwide, emphasizing the need of accurate medium- to long-term predictions to timely prompt anticipatory operations. Despite modern forecasts are skillful over short lead time (from hours to days), predictability generally tends to decrease on longer lead times. Global climate teleconnection, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), may contribute in extending forecast lead times. However, ENSO teleconnection is well defined in some locations, such as Western USA and Australia, while there is no consensus on how it can be detected and used in other regions, particularly in Europe, Africa, and Asia. In this work, we generalize the Niño Index Phase Analysis (NIPA) framework by contributing the Multi Variate Niño Index Phase Analysis (MV-NIPA), which allows capturing the state of multiple large-scale climate signals (i.e. ENSO, North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation, Indian Ocean Dipole) to forecast hydroclimatic variables on a seasonal time scale. Specifically, our approach distinguishes the different phases of the considered climate signals and, for each phase, identifies relevant anomalies in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) that influence the local hydrologic conditions. The potential of the MV-NIPA framework is demonstrated through an application to the Lake Como system, a regulated lake in northern Italy which is mainly operated for flood control and irrigation supply. Numerical results show high correlations between seasonal SST values and one season-ahead precipitation in the Lake Como basin. The skill of the resulting MV-NIPA forecast outperforms the one of ECMWF products. This information represents a valuable contribution to partially anticipate the summer water availability, especially during drought events, ultimately supporting the improvement of the Lake Como

  8. Phenological synchrony and seasonality of understory Rubiaceae in the Atlantic Forest, Bahia, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heitor Scarpati Liuth

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In tropical forests with low seasonality, climatic variables generally exert a weak influence on the phenology of species. The seasonality of phenophases in closely related taxa can be controlled by phylogenetic constraints in such environments. In this study, our aim was to describe the phenology of Rubiaceae in the understory of the Atlantic Forest in the southern part of Bahia, Brazil, as well as to evaluate the seasonality and phenological synchrony of this family. For two years, we observed 90 individuals belonging to 13 species, in an area of 0.2 ha. Leaf flushing and leaf fall did not demonstrate any seasonality, were continuous for most species and correlated with few of the climatic variables. Flowering was seasonal and correlated positively with all climatic variables. Species exhibited seasonality for this phenophase with high flowering overlap among species of Psychotria, indicating an aggregated pattern for this genus. Fruiting was also seasonal and correlated with all the climatic variables, unripe fruit development peaking at the beginning of the season during which humidity is highest and fruit ripening peaking in the season during which humidity is slightly lower. The vegetative and flowering patterns observed in the study area are commonly seen in other tropical forests. The reproductive seasonality of this family can facilitate the attraction of biotic agents, as postulated in the facilitation hypothesis. Our results demonstrate that climatic variables influenced the phenological patterns observed here, although the high reproductive seasonality and interspecific synchrony, especially in congeneric species, raises the possibility that phylogenetic proximity plays a role in the pattern of the family Rubiaceae.

  9. Evaluation of CFSV2 Forecast Skill for Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-Seasonal Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    S, S. A.; Ghosh, S.

    2015-12-01

    Prediction of sub seasonal monsoon characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is highly crucial for agricultural planning and water resource management. The Climate forecast System version 2 (CFS V2), the state of the art coupled climate model developed by NCEP, is currently being employed for the seasonal and extended range forecasts of ISM. Even though CFSV2 is a fully coupled ocean- atmosphere- land model with advanced physics, increased resolution and refined initialisation, its ISM forecasts, in terms of seasonal mean and variability needs improvement. Numerous works have been done for verifying the CFSV2 forecasts in terms of the seasonal mean, its mean and variability, active and break spells, and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - monsoon interactions. Most of these works are based on either rain fall strength or rainfall based indices. Here we evaluate the skill of CFS v2 model in forecasting the various sub seasonal features of ISM, viz., the onset and withdrawal days of monsoon that are determined using circulation based indices, the Monsoon Intra Seasonal Oscillations (MISO), and Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures. The MISO index, we use here, is based on zonal wind at 850 hPa and Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) anomalies. With this work, we aim at assessing the skill of the model in simulating the large scale circulation patterns and their variabilities within the monsoon season. Variabilities in these large scale circulation patterns are primarily responsible for the variabilities in the seasonal monsoon strength and its temporal distribution across the season. We find that the model can better forecast the large scale circulation and than the actual precipitation. Hence we suggest that seasonal rainfall forecasts can be improved by the statistical downscaling of CFSV2 forecasts by incorporating the established relationships between the well forecasted large scale variables and monsoon precipitation.

  10. Constant and seasonal drivers of bird communities in a wind farm: implications for conservation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzanna M. Rosin

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. One of the most difficult challenges for conservation biology is to reconcile growing human demands for resources with the rising need for protecting nature. Wind farms producing renewable energy have been recognised to be a threat for birds, but clear directives for environmental planning are still missing. Methods. Point counts were performed to study the relationship between eight environmental variables and bird populations in different parts of a year on the largest Polish wind farm between March 2011 and February 2013. Variables potentially related to species richness (Chao 1 estimator and the abundance of the entire bird community as well as five selected farmland species were analysed with the use of generalized linear mixed models. Results. Some associations between the studied variables and bird populations were season/year specific, while others had a constant direction (positive or negative across seasons and/or years. The latter were distance to the nearest turbine, field size, number of wind turbines, proximity of settlements and water bodies. Spatial autocorrelation and counting time were significantly correlated with bird population estimates but the directions of these relationships varied among seasons and years. Associations between abundance of individual species and environmental variables were species-specific. Conclusions. The results demonstrated a constant negative relationship between wind turbine proximity and bird numbers. Other environmental variables, such as field size, proximity of settlements and water bodies that also had constant associations with bird populations across seasons may be taken into account when minimizing adverse effects of wind farm development on birds or choosing optimal locations of new turbines.

  11. Constant and seasonal drivers of bird communities in a wind farm: implications for conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosin, Zuzanna M; Skórka, Piotr; Szymański, Paweł; Tobolka, Marcin; Luczak, Andrzej; Tryjanowski, Piotr

    2016-01-01

    Background. One of the most difficult challenges for conservation biology is to reconcile growing human demands for resources with the rising need for protecting nature. Wind farms producing renewable energy have been recognised to be a threat for birds, but clear directives for environmental planning are still missing. Methods. Point counts were performed to study the relationship between eight environmental variables and bird populations in different parts of a year on the largest Polish wind farm between March 2011 and February 2013. Variables potentially related to species richness (Chao 1 estimator) and the abundance of the entire bird community as well as five selected farmland species were analysed with the use of generalized linear mixed models. Results. Some associations between the studied variables and bird populations were season/year specific, while others had a constant direction (positive or negative) across seasons and/or years. The latter were distance to the nearest turbine, field size, number of wind turbines, proximity of settlements and water bodies. Spatial autocorrelation and counting time were significantly correlated with bird population estimates but the directions of these relationships varied among seasons and years. Associations between abundance of individual species and environmental variables were species-specific. Conclusions. The results demonstrated a constant negative relationship between wind turbine proximity and bird numbers. Other environmental variables, such as field size, proximity of settlements and water bodies that also had constant associations with bird populations across seasons may be taken into account when minimizing adverse effects of wind farm development on birds or choosing optimal locations of new turbines.

  12. Environmental Determinants Influencing Fish Community Structure and Diversity in Two Distinct Seasons among Wetlands of Northern Region (Ghana

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    Collins Ayine Nsor

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fish community structure was assessed in six wetlands using cast nets, to correlate with environmental variables with diversity and distribution patterns, from 2010 to 2012. A total of 2,239 individuals belonging to 44 species and 1,938 individuals belonging to 40 species were sampled in the dry and wet seasons. Mochokid and Mormyrid families dominated fish community and constituted 14.8%, respectively, followed by Alestids (12.9% and Chlariids (11.1%. Rarer taxons were centropomids, channids, malapteruds, and oesteoglossids and represented 1.9%, respectively. Overall, CPUE per net did not vary significantly (Tukey HSD test, p=0.27 in the dry and wet seasons. Wuntori marsh consistently showed dominance in mean monthly CPUE per net (dry = 115±4.5; wet = 107±7.7 seasons, while Bunglung constructed wetland was the least recorded (dry = 56.5±6.2; wet = 58.3±4.1 seasons. Fish diversity and richness differed significantly (F=0.11, p=0.03 among seasons. Environmental disturbances were season-specific and did not differ significantly (F=0.16, df=14, p=0.97 among sites. A DCA ordination explained 69% variability in fish distribution patterns, while PCA showed that 81.8% of nitrate-nitrogen, phosphate, and grazing intensity on axis 1 and conductivity, temperature, and turbidity on axis 2 influenced fish community structure. Wetland conservation must be promoted to sustain fish abundance and overall ecosystem stability.

  13. Evaluation of climate model aerosol seasonal and spatial variability

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Horowitz, HM

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available , regional circulation transports dust from deserts in Iraq and southern Iran during summer and a mixture of fine pollution aerosols from the Persian Gulf throughout the year (Eck et al., 2008; Basart et al., 2009). The Izaña site has a different seasonal...

  14. Consistent seasonal snow cover depth and duration variability over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Decline in consistent seasonal snow cover depth, duration and changing snow cover build- up pattern over the WH in recent decades indicate that WH has undergone considerable climate change and winter weather patterns are changing in the WH. 1. Introduction. Mountainous regions around the globe are storehouses.

  15. Animal perception of seasonal thresholds: changes in elephant movement in relation to rainfall patterns.

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    Patricia J Birkett

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The identification of temporal thresholds or shifts in animal movement informs ecologists of changes in an animal's behaviour, which contributes to an understanding of species' responses in different environments. In African savannas, rainfall, temperature and primary productivity influence the movements of large herbivores and drive changes at different scales. Here, we developed a novel approach to define seasonal shifts in movement behaviour by examining the movements of a highly mobile herbivore (elephant; Loxodonta africana, in relation to local and regional rainfall patterns. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used speed to determine movement changes of between 8 and 14 GPS-collared elephant cows, grouped into five spatial clusters, in Kruger National Park, South Africa. To detect broad-scale patterns of movement, we ran a three-year daily time-series model for each individual (2007-2009. Piecewise regression models provided the best fit for elephant movement, which exhibited a segmented, waveform pattern over time. Major breakpoints in speed occurred at the end of the dry and wet seasons of each year. During the dry season, female elephant are constrained by limited forage and thus the distances they cover are shorter and less variable. Despite the inter-annual variability of rainfall, speed breakpoints were strongly correlated with both local and regional rainfall breakpoints across all three years. Thus, at a multi-year scale, rainfall patterns significantly affect the movements of elephant. The variability of both speed and rainfall breakpoints across different years highlights the need for an objective definition of seasonal boundaries. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: By using objective criteria to determine behavioural shifts, we identified a biologically meaningful indicator of major changes in animal behaviour in different years. We recommend the use of such criteria, from an animal's perspective, for delineating seasons or

  16. Discoloration of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) tape as a proxy for water-table depth in peatlands: validation and assessment of seasonal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, Robert K.; Hotchkiss, Sara C.; Wilcox, Douglas A.

    2005-01-01

    Summary: 1. Discoloration of polyvinyl chloride (PVC) tape has been used in peatland ecological and hydrological studies as an inexpensive way to monitor changes in water-table depth and reducing conditions. 2. We investigated the relationship between depth of PVC tape discoloration and measured water-table depth at monthly time steps during the growing season within nine kettle peatlands of northern Wisconsin. Our specific objectives were to: (1) determine if PVC discoloration is an accurate method of inferring water-table depth in Sphagnum-dominated kettle peatlands of the region; (2) assess seasonal variability in the accuracy of the method; and (3) determine if systematic differences in accuracy occurred among microhabitats, PVC tape colour and peatlands. 3. Our results indicated that PVC tape discoloration can be used to describe gradients of water-table depth in kettle peatlands. However, accuracy differed among the peatlands studied, and was systematically biased in early spring and late summer/autumn. Regardless of the month when the tape was installed, the highest elevations of PVC tape discoloration showed the strongest correlation with midsummer (around July) water-table depth and average water-table depth during the growing season. 4. The PVC tape discoloration method should be used cautiously when precise estimates are needed of seasonal changes in the water-table.

  17. Distinct patterns in the diurnal and seasonal variability in four components of soil respiration in a temperate forest under free-air CO2 enrichment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. A. Gonzalez-Meler

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Soil respiration (RS is a major flux in the global carbon (C cycle. Responses of RS to changing environmental conditions may exert a strong control on the residence time of C in terrestrial ecosystems and in turn influence the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases. Soil respiration consists of several components oxidizing soil C from different pools, age and chemistry. The mechanisms underlying the temporal variability of RS components are poorly understood. In this study, we used the long-term whole-ecosystem 13C tracer at the Duke Forest Free Air CO2 Enrichment site to separate forest RS into its autotrophic (RR and heterotrophic components (RH. The contribution of RH to RS was further partitioned into litter decomposition (RL, and decomposition of soil organic matter (RSOM of two age classes – up to 8 yr old and SOM older than 8 yr. Soil respiration was generally dominated by RSOM during the growing season (44% of daytime RS, especially at night. The contribution of heterotrophic respiration (RSOM and RL to RS was not constant, indicating that the seasonal variability in RR alone cannot explain seasonal variation in RS. Although there was no diurnal variability in RS, there were significant compensatory differences in the contribution of individual RS components to daytime and nighttime rates. The average contribution of RSOM to RS was greater at night (54% than during the day (44%. The average contribution of RR to total RS was ~30% during the day and ~34% during the night. In contrast, RL constituted 26% of RS during the day and only 12% at night. About 95% of the decomposition of soil C older than 8 yr (Rpre-tr originated from RSOM and showed more pronounced and consistent diurnal variability than any other RS component; nighttime rates were on average 29% higher than daytime rates. In contrast, the decomposition of more recent, post-treatment C (Rpre-tr did not vary diurnally. None of the diurnal variations in components of RH

  18. Seasonal Strength Performance and Its Relationship with Training Load on Elite Runners

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Balsalobre-Fernández

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to analyze the time-course of force production of elite middle and long-distance runners throughout an entire season and at the end of the off-season, as well as its relationships with training load and hormonal responses. Training load was recorded daily throughout an entire season by measuring and evaluating the session distance (km, training zone and session-RPE in a group of 15 elite middle and long-distance runners (12 men, 3 women; age = 26.3 ± 5.1yrs, BMI = 19.7 ± 1.1. Also, basal salivary-free cortisol levels were measured weekly, and 50-metre sprints, mean propulsive velocity (MPV, mean propulsive power (MPP, repetition maximum (RM and peak rate of force development (RFD of half-squats were measured 4 times during the season, and once more after the off-season break. There were no significant variations in force production during the season or after the off-season break, except for the RFD (-30.2%, p = 0.005 values, which changed significantly from the beginning to the end of the season. Significant correlations were found between session-RPE and MPV (r = -0.650, p = 0.004, MPP (r = -0.602, p = 0.009, RM (r = -0.650, p = 0.004, and the 50-metre sprint (r = 0.560, p = 0.015. Meanwhile, salivary-free cortisol correlated significantly with the 50-metre sprint (r = 0.737, p < 0.001 and the RM ( r = -0.514, p = 0.025. Finally, the training zone correlated with the 50-metre sprint (r = -0.463, p = 0.041. Session-RPE, training zone and salivary-free cortisol levels are related to force production in elite middle and long-distance runners. Monitoring these variables could be a useful tool in controlling the training programs of elite athletes.

  19. Seasonal climate variation and caribou availability: Modeling sequential movement using satellite-relocation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolson, Craig; Berman, Matthew; West, Colin Thor; Kofinas, Gary P.; Griffith, Brad; Russell, Don; Dugan, Darcy

    2013-01-01

    Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range.

  20. Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Craig Nicolson

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range.

  1. Ecophysiological and phenological strategies in seasonally-dry ecosystems: an ecohydrological approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vico, Giulia; Manzoni, Stefano; Thompson, Sally; Molini, Annalisa; Porporato, Amilcare

    2015-04-01

    Seasonally-dry climates are particularly challenging for vegetation, as they are characterized by prolonged dry periods and often marked inter-annual variability. During the dry season plants face predictable physiological stress due to lack of water, whereas the inter-annual variability in rainfall timing and amounts requires plants to develop flexible adaptation strategies. The variety of strategies observed across seasonally-dry (Mediterranean and tropical) ecosystems is indeed wide - ranging from near-isohydric species that adjust stomatal conductance to avoid drought, to anisohydric species that maintain gas exchange during the dry season. A suite of phenological strategies are hypothesized to be associated to ecophysiological strategies. Here we synthetize current knowledge on ecophysiological and phenological adaptations through a comprehensive ecohydrological model linking a soil water balance to a vegetation carbon balance. Climatic regimes are found to select for different phenological strategies that maximize the long-term plant carbon uptake. Inter-annual variability of the duration of the wet season allows coexistence of different drought-deciduous strategies. In contrast, short dry seasons or access to groundwater favour evergreen species. Climatic changes causing more intermittent rainfall and/or shorter wet seasons are predicted to favour drought-deciduous species with opportunistic water use.

  2. Seasonal patterns of activity and community structure in an amphibian assemblage at a pond network with variable hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vignoli, Leonardo; Bologna, Marco A.; Luiselli, Luca

    2007-03-01

    We studied community structure and seasonal activity patterns in a system of four ponds with seasonally-variable hydrology at a Mediterranean area in central Italy. We used a set of field methods to assess species presence and relative frequency of observation. The network of ponds was inhabited by six species of amphibians, two salamanders and four frogs. The breeding phenology of the six species did not vary remarkably among ponds, but there were significant differences among species in use of ponds. Factorial analysis of pond similarity drawn from percentage composition of the amphibian fauna, revealed that each of the four ponds was treatable as independent units, with no influence of relative inter-pond distance. PCA analysis allowed us to spatially arrange the amphibian species into three main groups: two were monospecific groups (i.e., Triturus vulgaris and Bufo bufo) and the third consisted of those species that selected not only the largest-deepest ponds, but also the ephemeral ones (i.e., Triturus carnifex, Hyla intermedia, the green frogs and Rana dalmatina). Our results suggest that the inter-pond differences in riparian vegetation, water depth, aquatic vegetation structure/abundance, and soil composition may produce differences among pond ecological characteristics (i.e., water turbidity and temperature, shelter availability, abundance of oviposition micro-sites), which may in turn influence different patterns of use by amphibians. To our knowledge, this is the first study emphasizing the potential role of heterochrony in the maintenance of a high species richness in Mediterranean amphibian communities. Preservation of freshwater vertebrate biodiversity requires management and protection not only of the main ponds and water bodies but also the temporary and ephemeral shallow ponds.

  3. On the seasonal variability of the Canary Current and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vélez-Belchí, Pedro; Pérez-Hernández, M. Dolores; Casanova-Masjoan, María.; Cana, Luis; Hernández-Guerra, Alonso

    2017-06-01

    The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is continually monitored along 26°N by the RAPID-MOCHA array. Measurements from this array show a 6.7 Sv seasonal cycle for the AMOC, with a 5.9 Sv contribution from the upper mid-ocean. Recent studies argue that the dynamics of the eastern Atlantic is the main driver for this seasonal cycle; specifically, Rossby waves excited south of the Canary Islands. Using inverse modeling, hydrographic, mooring, and altimetry data, we describe the seasonal cycle of the ocean mass transport around the Canary Islands and at the eastern boundary, under the influence of the African slope, where eastern component of the RAPID-MOCHA array is situated. We find a seasonal cycle of -4.1 ± 0.5 Sv for the oceanic region of the Canary Current, and +3.7 ± 0.4 Sv at the eastern boundary. This seasonal cycle along the eastern boundary is in agreement with the seasonal cycle of the AMOC that requires the lowest contribution to the transport in the upper mid-ocean to occur in fall. However, we demonstrate that the linear Rossby wave model used previously to explain the seasonal cycle of the AMOC is not robust, since it is extremely sensitive to the choice of the zonal range of the wind stress curl and produces the same results with a Rossby wave speed of zero. We demonstrate that the seasonal cycle of the eastern boundary is due to the recirculation of the Canary Current and to the seasonal cycle of the poleward flow that characterizes the eastern boundaries of the oceans.

  4. Factors affecting seasonal habitat use, and predicted range of two tropical deer in Indonesian rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Dede Aulia; Gonzalez, Georges; Haryono, Mohammad; Muhtarom, Aom; Firdaus, Asep Yayus; Aulagnier, Stéphane

    2017-07-01

    There is an urgent recognized need for conservation of tropical forest deer. In order to identify some environmental factors affecting conservation, we analyzed the seasonal habitat use of two Indonesian deer species, Axis kuhlii in Bawean Island and Muntiacus muntjak in south-western Java Island, in response to several physical, climatic, biological, and anthropogenic variables. Camera trapping was performed in different habitat types during both wet and dry season to record these elusive species. The highest number of photographs was recorded in secondary forest and during the dry season for both Bawean deer and red muntjac. In models, anthropogenic and climatic variables were the main predictors of habitat use. Distances to cultivated area and to settlement were the most important for A. kuhlii in the dry season. Distances to cultivated area and annual rainfall were significant for M. muntjak in both seasons. Then we modelled their predictive range using Maximum entropy modelling (Maxent). We concluded that forest landscape is the fundamental scale for deer management, and that secondary forests are potentially important landscape elements for deer conservation. Important areas for conservation were identified accounting of habitat transformation in both study areas.

  5. The Shifting Seasonal Mean Autoregressive Model and Seasonality in the Central England Monthly Temperature Series, 1772-2016

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    He, Changli; Kang, Jian; Terasvirta, Timo

    In this paper we introduce an autoregressive model with seasonal dummy variables in which coefficients of seasonal dummies vary smoothly and deterministically over time. The error variance of the model is seasonally heteroskedastic and multiplicatively decomposed, the decomposition being similar ...... temperature series. More specifically, the idea is to find out in which way and by how much the monthly temperatures are varying over time during the period of more than 240 years, if they do. Misspecification tests are applied to the estimated model and the findings discussed....

  6. The response of archaeal species to seasonal variables in a subtropical aerated soil: insight into the low abundant methanogens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Wei; Jiao, Na; Ma, Cenling; Fang, Sa; Phelps, Tommy J; Zhu, Ruixin; Zhang, Chuanlun

    2017-08-01

    Archaea are cosmopolitan in aerated soils around the world. While the dominance of Thaumarchaeota has been reported in most soils, the methanogens are recently found to be ubiquitous but with low abundances in the aerated soil globally. However, the seasonal changes of Archaea community in the aerated soils are still in the mist. In this study, we investigated the change of Archaea in the context of environmental variables over a period of 12 months in a subtropical soil on the Chongming Island, China. The results showed that Nitrososphaera spp. were the dominant archaeal population while the methanogens were in low proportions but highly diverse (including five genera: Methanobacterium, Methanocella, Methanosaeta, Methanosarcina, and Methanomassiliicoccus) in the aerated soil samples determined by high throughput sequencing. A total of 126 LSA correlations were found in the dataset including all the 72 archaeal OTUs and 8 environmental factors. A significance index defined as the pagerank score of each OTU divided by its relative abundance was used to evaluate the significance of each OTU. The results showed that five out of 17 methanogen OTUs were significantly positively correlated with temperature, suggesting those methanogens might increase with temperature rather than being dormant in the aerated soils. Given the metabolic response of methanogens to temperature under aerated soil conditions, their contribution to the global methane cycle warrants evaluation.

  7. Height and seasonal growth pattern of jack pine full-sib families

    Science.gov (United States)

    Don E. Riemenschneider

    1981-01-01

    Total tree height, seasonal shoot elongation, dates of growth initiation and cessation, and mean daily growth rate were measured and analyzed for a population of jack pine full-sib families derived from inter-provenance crosses. Parental provenance had no effect on these variables although this may have been due to small sample size. Progenies differed significantly...

  8. Divergent phenological response to hydroclimate variability in forested mountain watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Taehee; Band, Lawrence E; Miniat, Chelcy F; Song, Conghe; Bolstad, Paul V; Vose, James M; Love, Jason P

    2014-08-01

    Mountain watersheds are primary sources of freshwater, carbon sequestration, and other ecosystem services. There is significant interest in the effects of climate change and variability on these processes over short to long time scales. Much of the impact of hydroclimate variability in forest ecosystems is manifested in vegetation dynamics in space and time. In steep terrain, leaf phenology responds to topoclimate in complex ways, and can produce specific and measurable shifts in landscape forest patterns. The onset of spring is usually delayed at a specific rate with increasing elevation (often called Hopkins' Law; Hopkins, 1918), reflecting the dominant controls of temperature on greenup timing. Contrary with greenup, leaf senescence shows inconsistent trends along elevation gradients. Here, we present mechanisms and an explanation for this variability and its significance for ecosystem patterns and services in response to climate. We use moderate-resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data to derive landscape-induced phenological patterns over topoclimate gradients in a humid temperate broadleaf forest in southern Appalachians. These phenological patterns are validated with different sets of field observations. Our data demonstrate that divergent behavior of leaf senescence with elevation is closely related to late growing season hydroclimate variability in temperature and water balance patterns. Specifically, a drier late growing season is associated with earlier leaf senescence at low elevation than at middle elevation. The effect of drought stress on vegetation senescence timing also leads to tighter coupling between growing season length and ecosystem water use estimated from observed precipitation and runoff generation. This study indicates increased late growing season drought may be leading to divergent ecosystem response between high and low elevation forests. Landscape-induced phenological patterns

  9. Seasonal and Intraseasonal Variability of Mesoscale Convective Systems over the South Asian Monsoon Region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Virts, Katrina S.; Houze, Robert A.

    2016-12-01

    Seasonal and intraseasonal differences in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) over South Asia are examined using A-Train satellites, a ground-based lightning network, and reanalysis fields. Pre-monsoon (April-May) MCSs occur primarily over Bangladesh and the eastern Bay of Bengal. During the monsoon (June-September), small MCSs occur over the Meghalaya Plateau and northeast Himalayan notch, while large and connected MCSs are most widespread over the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon MCSs produce less lightning and exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil reflectivity structures in CloudSat observations than do pre-monsoon MCSs. During the monsoon season, Bay of Bengal and Meghalaya Plateau MCSs vary with the 30-60 day northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation, while northeast Himalayan notch MCSs are associated with weak large-scale anomalies but locally enhanced CAPE. During intraseasonal active periods, a zone of enhanced large and connected MCSs, precipitation, and lightning extends from the northeastern Arabian Sea southeast over India and the Bay of Bengal, flanked by suppressed anomalies. Spatial variability is observed within this enhancement zone: lightning is most enhanced where MCSs are less enhanced, and vice versa. Reanalysis composites indicate that Bay of Bengal MCSs are associated with monsoon depressions, which are frequent during active monsoon periods, while Meghalaya Plateau MCSs are most frequent at the end of break periods, as anomalous southwesterly winds strengthen moist advection toward the terrain. Over both regions, MCSs exhibit more extensive stratiform and anvil regions and less lightning when the large-scale environment is moister, and vice versa.

  10. Spatial and temporal variability of interhemispheric transport times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaokang; Yang, Huang; Waugh, Darryn W.; Orbe, Clara; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

    2018-05-01

    The seasonal and interannual variability of transport times from the northern midlatitude surface into the Southern Hemisphere is examined using simulations of three idealized age tracers: an ideal age tracer that yields the mean transit time from northern midlatitudes and two tracers with uniform 50- and 5-day decay. For all tracers the largest seasonal and interannual variability occurs near the surface within the tropics and is generally closely coupled to movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). There are, however, notable differences in variability between the different tracers. The largest seasonal and interannual variability in the mean age is generally confined to latitudes spanning the ITCZ, with very weak variability in the southern extratropics. In contrast, for tracers subject to spatially uniform exponential loss the peak variability tends to be south of the ITCZ, and there is a smaller contrast between tropical and extratropical variability. These differences in variability occur because the distribution of transit times from northern midlatitudes is very broad and tracers with more rapid loss are more sensitive to changes in fast transit times than the mean age tracer. These simulations suggest that the seasonal-interannual variability in the southern extratropics of trace gases with predominantly NH midlatitude sources may differ depending on the gases' chemical lifetimes.

  11. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D A; Morse, A P

    2014-12-02

    Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

  12. Assessment of plant biomass and nitrogen nutrition with plant height in early-to mid-season corn.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Xinhua; Hayes, Robert M; McClure, M Angela; Savoy, Hubert J

    2012-10-01

    The physiological basis for using non-destructive high-resolution measurements of plant height through plant height sensing to guide variable-rate nitrogen (N) applications on corn (Zea mays L.) during early (six-leaf growth stage, V6) to mid (V12) season is largely unknown. This study was conducted to assess the relationships of plant biomass and leaf N with plant height in early- to mid-season corn under six different N rate treatments. Corn plant biomass was significantly and positively related to plant height under an exponential model when both were measured at V6. This relationship explained 62-78% of the variations in corn biomass production. Leaf N concentration was, in general, significantly and positively related to plant height when both were measured at V6, V8, V10 and V12. This relationship became stronger as the growing season progressed from V6 to V12. The relationship of leaf N with plant height in early- to mid-season corn was affected by initial soil N fertility and abnormal weather conditions. The relationship of leaf N concentration with plant height may provide a physiological basis for using plant height sensing to guide variable-rate N applications on corn. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry.

  13. Seasonal plankton variability in Chilean Patagonia fjords: Carbon flow through the pelagic food web of Aysen Fjord and plankton dynamics in the Moraleda Channel basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, H. E.; Castro, L.; Daneri, G.; Iriarte, J. L.; Silva, N.; Vargas, C. A.; Giesecke, R.; Sánchez, N.

    2011-03-01

    Two research cruises ( CIMAR 13 Fiordos) were conducted in the N-S oriented macrobasin of the Moraleda Channel (42-47°S), which includes the E-W oriented Puyuhuapi Channel and Aysen Fjord, during two contrasting productive seasons: austral winter (27 July-7 August 2007) and spring (2-12 November 2007). These campaigns set out to assess the spatio-temporal variability, defined by the local topography along Moraleda Channel, in the biological, physical, and chemical oceanographic characteristics of different microbasins and to quantify the carbon budget of the pelagic trophic webs of Aysen Fjord. Seasonal carbon fluxes and fjord-system functioning vary widely in our study area. In terms of spatial topography, two constriction sills (Meninea and Elefantes) define three microbasins along Moraleda Channel, herein the (1) north (Guafo-Meninea), (2) central (Meninea-Elefantes), and (3) south (Elefantes-San Rafael Lagoon) microbasins. In winter, nutrient concentrations were high (i.e. nitrate range: 21-14 μM) and primary production was low (153-310 mgC m -2 d -1), suggesting that reduced light radiation depressed the plankton dynamics throughout Moraleda Channel. In spring, primary production followed a conspicuous N-S gradient, which was the highest (5167 mgC m -2 d -1) in the north microbasin and the lowest (742 mgC m -2 d -1) in the south microbasin. The seasonal pattern of the semi-enclosed Puyuhuapi Channel and Aysen Fjord, however, revealed no significant differences in primary production (˜800 mgC m -2 d -1), and vertical fluxes of particulate organic carbon were nearly twice as high in spring as in winter (266 vs. 168 mgC m -2 d -1). At the time-series station (St. 79), the lithogenic fraction dominated the total sedimented matter (seston). The role of euphausiids in the biological carbon pump of the Patagonian fjords was evident, given the predominance of zooplankton fecal material, mostly euphausiid fecal strings (46% of all fecal material), among the

  14. Seasonal and interannual variability of fast ice extent in the southeastern Laptev Sea between 1999 and 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selyuzhenok, V.; Krumpen, T.; Mahoney, A.; Janout, M.; Gerdes, R.

    2015-12-01

    Along with changes in sea ice extent, thickness, and drift speed, Arctic sea ice regime is characterized by a decrease of fast ice season and reduction of fast ice extent. The most extensive fast ice cover in the Arctic develops in the southeastern Laptev Sea. Using weekly operational sea ice charts produced by Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute (AARI, Russia) from 1999 to 2013, we identified five main key events that characterize the annual evolution of fast ice in the southeastern Laptev Sea. Linking the occurrence of the key events with the atmospheric forcing, bathymetry, freezeup, and melt onset, we examined the processes driving annual fast ice cycle. The analysis revealed that fast ice in the region is sensitive to thermodynamic processes throughout a season, while the wind has a strong influence only on the first stages of fast ice development. The maximal fast ice extent is closely linked to the bathymetry and local topography and is primarily defined by the location of shoals, where fast ice is likely grounded. The annual fast ice cycle shows significant changes over the period of investigation, with tendencies toward later fast ice formation and earlier breakup. These tendencies result in an overall decrease of the fast ice season by 2.8 d/yr, which is significantly higher than previously reported trends.

  15. Seasonal Variability in Vadose zone biodegradation at a crude oil pipeline rupture site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sihota, Natasha J.; Trost, Jared J.; Bekins, Barbara; Berg, Andrew M.; Delin, Geoffrey N.; Mason, Brent E.; Warren, Ean; Mayer, K. Ulrich

    2016-01-01

    Understanding seasonal changes in natural attenuation processes is critical for evaluating source-zone longevity and informing management decisions. The seasonal variations of natural attenuation were investigated through measurements of surficial CO2 effluxes, shallow soil CO2 radiocarbon contents, subsurface gas concentrations, soil temperature, and volumetric water contents during a 2-yr period. Surficial CO2 effluxes varied seasonally, with peak values of total soil respiration (TSR) occurring in the late spring and summer. Efflux and radiocarbon data indicated that the fractional contributions of natural soil respiration (NSR) and contaminant soil respiration (CSR) to TSR varied seasonally. The NSR dominated in the spring and summer, and CSR dominated in the fall and winter. Subsurface gas concentrations also varied seasonally, with peak values of CO2 and CH4 occurring in the fall and winter. Vadose zone temperatures and subsurface CO2 concentrations revealed a correlation between contaminant respiration and temperature. A time lag of 5 to 7 mo between peak subsurface CO2 concentrations and peak surface efflux is consistent with travel-time estimates for subsurface gas migration. Periods of frozen soils coincided with depressed surface CO2 effluxes and elevated CO2 concentrations, pointing to the temporary presence of an ice layer that inhibited gas transport. Quantitative reactive transport simulations demonstrated aspects of the conceptual model developed from field measurements. Overall, results indicated that source-zone natural attenuation (SZNA) rates and gas transport processes varied seasonally and that the average annual SZNA rate estimated from periodic surface efflux measurements is 60% lower than rates determined from measurements during the summer.

  16. Seasonal Cycles of Oceanic Transports in the Eastern Subpolar North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary, Stefan F.; Cunningham, Stuart A.; Johnson, Clare; Houpert, Loïc.; Holliday, N. Penny; Behrens, Erik; Biastoch, Arne; Böning, Claus W.

    2018-02-01

    The variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may play a role in sea surface temperature predictions on seasonal to decadal time scales. Therefore, AMOC seasonal cycles are a potential baseline for interpreting predictions. Here we present estimates for the seasonal cycle of transports of volume, temperature, and freshwater associated with the upper limb of the AMOC in the eastern subpolar North Atlantic on the Extended Ellett Line hydrographic section between Scotland and Iceland. Due to weather, ship-based observations are primarily in summer. Recent glider observations during other seasons present an opportunity to investigate the seasonal variability in the upper layer of the AMOC. First, we document a new method to quality control and merge ship, float, and glider hydrographic observations. This method accounts for the different spatial sampling rates of the three platforms. The merged observations are used to compute seasonal cycles of volume, temperature, and freshwater transports in the Rockall Trough. These estimates are similar to the seasonal cycles in two eddy-resolving ocean models. Volume transport appears to be the primary factor modulating other Rockall Trough transports. Finally, we show that the weakest transports occur in summer, consistent with seasonal changes in the regional-scale wind stress curl. Although the seasonal cycle is weak compared to other variability in this region, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in the Rockall Trough, roughly 0.5-1 Sv about a mean of 3.4 Sv, may account for up to 7-14% of the heat flux between Scotland and Greenland.

  17. VARIABILITY IN OPTICAL SPECTRA OF ε ORIONIS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, Gregory B.; Morrison, Nancy D.

    2013-01-01

    We present the results of a time series analysis of 130 échelle spectra of ε Ori (B0 Ia), acquired over seven observing seasons between 1998 and 2006 at Ritter Observatory. The equivalent widths of Hα (net) and He I λ5876 were measured and radial velocities were obtained from the central absorption of He I λ5876. Temporal variance spectra (TVS) revealed significant wind variability in both Hα and He I λ5876. The He I TVS have a double-peaked profile consistent with radial velocity oscillations. A periodicity search was carried out on the equivalent width and radial velocity data, as well as on wavelength-binned spectra. This analysis has revealed several periods in the variability with timescales of two to seven days. Many of these periods exhibit sinusoidal modulation in the associated phase diagrams. Several of these periods were present in both Hα and He I, indicating a possible connection between the wind and the photosphere. Due to the harmonic nature of these periods, stellar pulsations may be the origin of some of the observed variability. Periods on the order of the rotational period were also detected in the He I line in the 1998-1999 season and in both lines during the 2004-2005 season. These periods may indicate rotational modulation due to structure in the wind.

  18. Survey of French spine surgeons reveals significant variability in spine trauma practices in 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lonjon, G; Grelat, M; Dhenin, A; Dauzac, C; Lonjon, N; Kepler, C K; Vaccaro, A R

    2015-02-01

    In France, attempts to define common ground during spine surgery meetings have revealed significant variability in clinical practices across different schools of surgery and the two specialities involved in spine surgery, namely, neurosurgery and orthopaedic surgery. To objectively characterise this variability by performing a survey based on a fictitious spine trauma case. Our working hypothesis was that significant variability existed in trauma practices and that this variability was related to a lack of strong scientific evidence in spine trauma care. We performed a cross-sectional survey based on a clinical vignette describing a 31-year-old male with an L1 burst fracture and neurologic symptoms (numbness). Surgeons received the vignette and a 14-item questionnaire on the management of this patient. For each question, surgeons had to choose among five possible answers. Differences in answers across surgeons were assessed using the Index of Qualitative Variability (IQV), in which 0 indicates no variability and 1 maximal variability. Surgeons also received a questionnaire about their demographics and surgical experience. Of 405 invited spine surgeons, 200 responded to the survey. Five questions had an IQV greater than 0.9, seven an IQV between 0.5 and 0.9, and two an IQV lower than 0.5. Variability was greatest about the need for MRI (IQV=0.93), degree of urgency (IQV=0.93), need for fusion (IQV=0.92), need for post-operative bracing (IQV=0.91), and routine removal of instrumentation (IQV=0.94). Variability was lowest for questions about the need for surgery (IQV=0.42) and use of the posterior approach (IQV=0.36). Answers were influenced by surgeon specialty, age, experience level, and type of centre. Clinical practice regarding spine trauma varies widely in France. Little published evidence is available on which to base recommendations that would diminish this variability. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  19. Seasonal variability in soil-surface CO{sub 2} efflux in selected young tree plantations in semi-arid eco-climate of Madurai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saraswathi, S.G.; Lalrammawia, C.; Paliwal, K. [Madurai Kamaraj Univ., Madurai (India). Dept. of Plant Sciences

    2008-07-10

    Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have been increasing in response to the disruption of the global carbon cycle by anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, agricultural practices and burning of fossil fuels. This has resulted in large shifts among carbon pools. The efflux of CO{sub 2} from soil results from the combined rates of autotrophic (root) and heterotrophic (microbial and soil fauna) respiration. It is often called soil respiration. The response of soil respiration (SR) to varying soil temperature and soil moisture was studied in three year-old plantation sites of Dalbergia sissoo, Dalbergia latifolia, Albizia lebbeck, Hardwickia binata and Cassia siamea during 2005--06. Significant seasonal differences in SR rates were observed in each site (P {<=} 0.001). The highest rates of soil CO{sub 2} efflux were generally found during the rainy season and the lowest during summer in all the study sites. Highest SR rates were found in D. sissoo, 9.89 {+-} 0.78 {mu}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1} in November and December, followed by H. binata, 9.68 {+-} 0.45 {mu}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1} in September and October 2005, A. lebbeck, 8.84 {+-} 0.43 {mu}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1} between November 2005 and January 2006, D. latifolia, 7.6 {+-} 0.12 {mu}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1} in November and December 2005 and C. siamea, 7.3 {mu}mol m{sup -2} s{sup -1} in December 2005. There was a positive and significant (P {<=} 0.001) relationship between SR rates and soil moisture in all the sites (r{sup 2} above 0.60), except C. siamea (r{sup 2} = 0.30). A poor relationship was observed between SR and soil temperature in all the sites (r{sup 2} below 0.2). Examination of the seasonal pattern of SR rates suggests that much of the variability could be attributed to variations in soil moisture. There was a strong indication suggesting that the soil-water deficits served to reduce SR rates during summer and after subsequent rain events. Overall sensitivity of SR rate to soil moisture seems to

  20. Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, T.; Myneni, R.

    2017-12-01

    Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

  1. Vertical propagation characteristics and seasonal variability of tidal wind oscillations in the MLT region over Trivandrum (8.5° N, 77° E: first results from SKiYMET Meteor Radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Sasi

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available Tidal activity in the Mesospheric Lower Thermosphere (MLT region over Trivandrum (8.5° N, 77° E is investigated using the observations from newly installed SKiYMET Meteor Radar. The seasonal variability and vertical propagation characteristics of atmospheric tides in the MLT region are addressed in the present communication. The observations revealed that the diurnal tide is more prominent than the semi/terdiurnal components over this latitude. It is also observed that the amplitudes of meridional components are stronger than that of zonal ones. The amplitude and phase structure shows the vertical propagation of diurnal tides with vertical wavelength of ~25 km. However, the vertical wavelength of the semidiurnal tide showed considerable variations. The vertical propagation characteristics of the terdiurnal tide showed some indications of their generating mechanisms. The observed features of tidal components are compared with Global Scale Wave Model (GSWM02 values and they showed a similar amplitude and phase structure for diurnal tides. Month-to-month variations in the tidal amplitudes have shown significant seasonal variation. The observed seasonal variation is discussed in light of the variation in tidal forcing and dissipation.

  2. Seasonal variations in antibiotic resistance gene transport in the Almendares River, Havana, Cuba

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles W Knapp

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Numerous studies have quantified antibiotic resistance genes (ARG in rivers and streams around the world, and significant relationships have been shown that relate different pollutant outputs and increased local ARG levels. However, most studies have not considered ambient flow conditions, which can vary dramatically especially in tropical countries. Here, ARG were quantified in water-column and sediment samples during the dry-and wet-seasons to assess how seasonal and other factors influence ARG transport down the Almendares River (Havana, Cuba. Eight locations were sampled and stream flow estimated during both seasons; qPCR was used to quantify four tetracycline, two erythromycin, and three beta-lactam resistance genes. ARG concentrations were higher in wet-season versus dry-season samples, which combined with higher flows, indicated greater ARG transport downstream during the wet season. Water-column ARG levels were more spatially variable in the dry-season than the wet-season, with the proximity of waste outfalls strongly influencing local ARG levels. Results confirm that dry-season sampling provides a useful picture of the impact of individual waste inputs on local stream ARG levels, whereas, the majority of ARGs in this tropical river were transported downstream during the wet season, possibly due to re-entrainment of ARG from sediments.

  3. Long-term and seasonal dynamics of dengue in Iquitos, Peru.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven T Stoddard

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4 that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data.We studied 10 years (2000-2010 of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases.Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001-2007 then DENV-4 (2008-2010. After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼ 70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season.Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos.

  4. Seasonal variability of cohesive sediment aggregation in the Bach Dang-Cam Estuary, Haiphong (Vietnam)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefebvre, Jean-Pierre; Ouillon, Sylvain; Vinh, Vu Duy; Arfi, Robert; Panché, Jean-Yves; Mari, Xavier; Van Thuoc, Chu; Torréton, Jean-Pascal

    2012-04-01

    In the Bach Dang-Cam Estuary, northern Vietnam, mechanisms governing cohesive sediment aggregation were investigated in situ in 2008-2009. As part of the Red River delta, this estuary exhibits a marked contrast in hydrological conditions between the monsoon and dry seasons. The impact on flocculation processes was assessed by means of surveys of water discharge, suspended particulate matter concentration and floc size distributions (FSDs) conducted during a tidal cycle at three selected sites along the estuary. A method was developed for calculating the relative volume concentration for the modes of various size classes from FSDs provided by the LISST 100X (Sequoia Scientific Inc.). It was found that all FSDs comprised four modes identified as particles/flocculi, fine and coarse microflocs, and macroflocs. Under the influence of the instantaneous turbulent kinetic energy, their proportions varied but without significant modification of their median diameters. In particular, when the turbulence level corresponded to a Kolmogorov microscale of less than ˜235 μm, a major breakup of flocs resulted in the formation of particles/flocculi and fine microflocs. Fluctuations in turbulence level were governed by seasonal variations in freshwater discharge and by the tidal cycle. During the wet season, strong freshwater input induced a high turbulent energy level that tended to generate sediment transfer from the coarser size classes (macroflocs, coarse microflocs) to finer ones (particles/flocculi and fine microflocs), and to promote a transport of sediment seawards. During the dry season, the influence of tides predominated. The turbulent energy level was then only episodically sufficiently high to generate transfer of sediment between floc size classes. At low turbulent energy, modifications in the proportions of floc size classes were due to differential settling. Tidal pumping produced a net upstream transport of sediment. Associated with the settling of sediment

  5. Environmental and Physiographic Controls on Inter-Growing Season Variability of Carbon Dioxide and Water Vapour Fluxes in a Minerotrophic Fen

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Kamp, G.; Sonnentag, O.; Chen, J. M.; Barr, A.; Hedstrom, N.; Granger, R.

    2008-12-01

    The interaction of fens with groundwater is spatially and temporally highly variable in response to meteorological conditions, resulting in frequent changes of groundwater fluxes in both vertical and lateral directions (flow reversals) across the mineral soil-peat boundary. However, despite the importance of the topographic and hydrogeological setting of fens, no study has been reported in the literature that explores a fen's atmospheric CO2 and energy flux densities under contrasting meteorological conditions in response to its physiographic setting. In our contribution we report four years of growing season eddy covariance and supporting measurements from the Canada Fluxnet-BERMS fen (formerly BOREAS southern peatland) in Saskatchewan, Canada. We first analyze hydrological data along two piezometer transects across the mineral soil-peat boundary with the objective of assessing changes in water table configuration and thus hydraulic gradients, indicating flow reversals, in response to dry and wet meteorological conditions. Next we quantify and compare growing season totals and diurnal and daily variations in evapotranspiration (ET) and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and its component fluxes gross ecosystem productivity (GPP) and terrestrial ecosystem respiration (TER) to identify their controls with a major focus on water table depth. While ET growing season totals were similar (~ 310 mm) under dry and wet meteorological conditions, the CO2 sink- source strength of Sandhill fen varied substantially from carbon neutral (NEE = -2 [+-7] g C m-2 per growing season) under dry meteorological condition (2003) to a moderate CO2- sink with NEE ranging between 157 [+- 10] and 190 [+- 11] g C m-2 per growing season under wet meteorological conditions (2004, 2005, and 2006). Using a process-oriented ecosystem model, BEPS-TerrainLab, we investigate how different canopy components at Sandhill contribute to total ET and GPP, and thus water use efficiency, under dry and wet

  6. THE IMPACT OF SEASON OF BIRTH AND BREEDING OF BOARS OF POLISH LANDRACE BREED ON THEIR INSEMINATION EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazimierz Pokrywka

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The effectiveness of breeding boars in insemination depends mainly on the skill of optimal use of their reproductive potential. Nevertheless, their semen is highly variable in its quality and physical characteristics, which makes it difficult to organise semen production for artificial insemination purposes. The present study contains an analysis of semen collected from Polish Landrace breed boars - the most popular pigs bred in Poland. It demonstrates that there is a statistically significant interaction between season of birth and reproductive season of Polish Landrace boars. What is more, it proves that these significant differences between reproductive performances of boars are closely connected to their breeding season and seasons of their birth and life. The results also illustrate how to improve organisation of insemination centres and make them better financially efficient.

  7. Seasonal variability of interception and water wettability of common oak leaves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Klamerus-Iwan

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Wettability of leaves and the resulting amount of interception loss of tree crowns is an important component of the atmosphere-tree stand-soil system balance. In the study, we hypothesized that changes occurring in leaves during the vegetation period can significantly affect the amount of rainwater retained by plants and wettability of leaves which is expressed by the contact angle between drops and leaves. We evaluated the hypothesis based on measurement series, which combined direct spraying of leaves with water at different stages of development at a constant temperature with observations made with an electron scanner which was used to determine changes occurring within a leaf, while the photographic method was used to analyze the contact angle of drops. The study involved common oak (Quercus robur. Samples of twigs derived from this species were collected in the area of Przedbórz (Poland forest district, in particular from the trees with well-developed crowns. Twigs were collected from 10 trees of similar age (35–40 years. The resulting database contained experimental data on changes of raindrop adhesion on oak leaves throughout the growing season. The internal contact angle of drops was within the range of 150° on the upper side of the leaf and 160° on the underside in May, up to 15° and 35° in November on the upper and underside of the leaves. Loss of interception was established at 6% at the beginning of the growing season up to 22% in autumn. It was concluded that the wettability and the level of interception increases in line with the age of a leaf.

  8. Evaluation of Variable Refrigerant Flow Systems Performance on Oak Ridge National Laboratory s Flexible Research Platform: Part 1 Cooling Season Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Im, Piljae [ORNL; Malhotra, Mini [ORNL; Munk, Jeffrey D [ORNL

    2016-08-01

    This report provides second-year cooling season test results for the multi-year project titled “Evaluation of Variable Refrigeration Flow (VRF) System on Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL)’s Flexible Research Platform (FRP).” The purpose of the second-year project was to (1) evaluate the full- and partload performance of VRF systems compared with an existing baseline heating, ventilation, and airconditioning (HVAC) system, which is a conventional rooftop unit (RTU) variable-air-volume (VAV) system with electric resistance heating and (2) use hourly building energy simulation to evaluate the energy savings potential of using VRF systems in major US cities. The second-year project performance period was from July 2015 through June 2016.

  9. Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A

    2017-05-25

    Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.

  10. On the reliability of seasonal climate forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weisheimer, A.; Palmer, T. N.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: how good are seasonal forecasts on a scale of 1–5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we expect them to be in 30 years time? Seasonal forecasts are made from ensembles of integrations of numerical models of climate. We argue that ‘goodness’ should be assessed first and foremost in terms of the probabilistic reliability of these ensemble-based forecasts; reliable inputs are essential for any forecast-based decision-making. We propose that a ‘5’ should be reserved for systems that are not only reliable overall, but where, in particular, small ensemble spread is a reliable indicator of low ensemble forecast error. We study the reliability of regional temperature and precipitation forecasts of the current operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, universally regarded as one of the world-leading operational institutes producing seasonal climate forecasts. A wide range of ‘goodness’ rankings, depending on region and variable (with summer forecasts of rainfall over Northern Europe performing exceptionally poorly) is found. Finally, we discuss the prospects of reaching ‘5’ across all regions and variables in 30 years time. PMID:24789559

  11. Global Seasonality of Rotavirus Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Manish M.; Pitzer, Virginia; Alonso, Wladimir J.; Vera, David; Lopman, Ben; Tate, Jacqueline; Viboud, Cecile; Parashar, Umesh D.

    2012-01-01

    Background A substantial number of surveillance studies have documented rotavirus prevalence among children admitted for dehydrating diarrhea. We sought to establish global seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease before widespread vaccine introduction. Methods We reviewed studies of rotavirus detection in children with diarrhea published since 1995. We assessed potential relationships between seasonal prevalence and locality by plotting the average monthly proportion of diarrhea cases positive for rotavirus according to geography, country development, and latitude. We used linear regression to identify variables that were potentially associated with the seasonal intensity of rotavirus. Results Among a total of 99 studies representing all six geographical regions of the world, patterns of year-round disease were more evident in low- and low-middle income countries compared with upper-middle and high income countries where disease was more likely to be seasonal. The level of country development was a stronger predictor of strength of seasonality (P=0.001) than geographical location or climate. However, the observation of distinctly different seasonal patterns of rotavirus disease in some countries with similar geographical location, climate and level of development indicate that a single unifying explanation for variation in seasonality of rotavirus disease is unlikely. Conclusion While no unifying explanation emerged for varying rotavirus seasonality globally, the country income level was somewhat more predictive of the likelihood of having seasonal disease than other factors. Future evaluation of the effect of rotavirus vaccination on seasonal patterns of disease in different settings may help understand factors that drive the global seasonality of rotavirus disease. PMID:23190782

  12. Seasonal variability in somatic and reproductive investment of the bivalve

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Santos, S.; Cardoso, J.F.M.F.; Carvalho, C.; Luttikhuizen, P.C.; van der Veer, H.W.

    2011-01-01

    Monthly investment in soma and gonads in the bivalve Scrobicularia plana is described for three populations along its distributional range: Minho estuary, Portugal; Westerschelde estuary, The Netherlands and Buvika estuary, Norway. Seasonal cycles in body mass (BMI), somatic mass (SMI) and

  13. Variability of nitrate and phosphate

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sardessai, S.; Sundar, D.

    Nitrate and phosphate are important elements of the biogeochemical system of an estuary. Observations carried out during the dry season April-May 2002, and March 2003 and wet season September 2002, show temporal and spatial variability of these two...

  14. Variability of zooplankton communities at Condor seamount and surrounding areas, Azores (NE Atlantic)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carmo, Vanda; Santos, Mariana; Menezes, Gui M.; Loureiro, Clara M.; Lambardi, Paolo; Martins, Ana

    2013-12-01

    Seamounts are common topographic features around the Azores archipelago (NE Atlantic). Recently there has been increasing research effort devoted to the ecology of these ecosystems. In the Azores, the mesozooplankon is poorly studied, particularly in relation to these seafloor elevations. In this study, zooplankton communities in the Condor seamount area (Azores) were investigated during March, July and September 2010. Samples were taken during both day and night with a Bongo net of 200 µm mesh that towed obliquely within the first 100 m of the water column. Total abundance, biomass and chlorophyll a concentrations did not vary with sampling site or within the diel cycle but significant seasonal variation was observed. Moreover, zooplankton community composition showed the same strong seasonal pattern regardless of spatial or daily variability. Despite seasonal differences, the zooplankton community structure remained similar for the duration of this study. Seasonal variability better explained our results than mesoscale spatial variability. Spatial homogeneity is probably related with island proximity and local dynamics over Condor seamount. Zooplankton literature for the region is sparse, therefore a short review of the most important zooplankton studies from the Azores is also presented.

  15. Sensitivities of dry season runoff to precipitation and temperature in southern Sierra Nevada streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safeeq, M.; Hunsaker, C. T.; Bales, R. C.

    2016-12-01

    In a mediterranean climate, dry season runoff sustains water supply and supports aquatic habitat and other ecosystems. Precipitation and temperature directly, by regulating recharge and evapotranspiration (ET), and indirectly, by regulating amount and timing of snowmelt, control the dry season runoff in the Sierra Nevada. Here, we explored relative impacts of precipitation and temperature variability on dry season runoff using path analysis. Specific objectives include: (i) to quantify the direct and indirect impacts of precipitation and temperature on 7-day average minimum flow (Qmin) and (ii) to explore the role of preceding year Qmin on fall season runoff (QF). We used daily runoff, air temperature, precipitation, and snow water equivalent (SWE) over 2004-2015 for the ten catchments in the Kings River Experimental Watersheds. For path analysis model of Qmin, we defined annual precipitation and temperature as exogenous variables and peak SWE, day of snow disappearance, and Qmin as endogenous variables. For QF, we defined current year fall precipitation and preceding year Qmin as exogenous variables and current year QF as an endogenous variable. Path analysis results for Qmin show precipitation as a dominant driver when compared to temperature, peak SWE, and day of snow disappearance. However, in half of the catchments that are mostly located at higher elevations the impact of temperature on Qmin was either comparable or exceeded that of precipitation. This relatively high sensitivity of Qmin to air temperature in high elevation catchments is consistent with the earlier findings of increased ET in proportion to warming. The direct effects of peak SWE and day of snow disappearance on Qmin were limited, and indirect effects of temperature and precipitation via peak SWE and day of snow disappearance were not significant. The preceding year Qmin and fall precipitation showed comparable impacts on QF, indicating that the storage in the preceding year modulates current

  16. Temporal distribution of gastroenteritis viruses in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso: seasonality of rotavirus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nafissatou Ouedraogo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Acute gastroenteritis is one of the most common diseases among children and adults, and continues to cause a major problem of public health in Burkina Faso. The temporal pattern of rotavirus, norovirus, sapovirus, astrovirus, adenovirus and Aichivirus A was studied by examining prevalence of gastroenteritis viruses in association with meteorological variables in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. Methods Stool samples from 263 children under 5 years of age and 170 older children patients, adolescent and adults with gastroenteritis were collected in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso from November 2011 to September 2012. Enteric viruses were detected using real-time or end-point (RT- PCR. Temperature, humidity and monthly rainfall were recorded from the National Meteorological Direction. Categorical data were compared by Chi-square tests and the effect of weather variables and monthly prevalence were analyzed using Pearson Correlation Coefficient test. Results The prevalence of rotavirus infections was significantly higher in the dry season (Season S1 compared to the wet season (season S2 (p = 0.03 among the population of children under 5 years of age. No statistically significant difference was observed regarding other gastroenteritis viruses comparing the dry season and the wet season. Positive cases of rotavirus, norovirus, adenovirus and sapovirus in children under 5 years of age were correlated with temperature (r = −0.68, p = 0.01; r = −0.74, p < 0.001; r = −0.68, p = 0.01; r = −0.65, p = 0.02, respectively and only rotavirus, adenovirus and astrovirus were correlated with relative humidity (r = −0.61, p = 0.04; r = −0.54, p = 0.08; r = −0.51, p = 0.1 respectively. No correlation was observed with rainfall. In older children, adolescent and adults patients, rotavirus and norovirus correlated with relative humidity (r = −0.58, p = 0.05; r = 0.54, p

  17. Seasonal and inter-annual variability of sea surface temperature at the east coast fishing area off Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nurul Ridani, S.; Mustapha, M. A.; Lihan, T.; Ku Kassim, K. Y.; Raja Bidin, R. H.

    2015-09-01

    Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was used to study a time-series of the aqua MODIS data imageries in the exclusive economic zone of east coast off Peninsular Malaysia. Temporal and spatial characteristics were examined to determine the dominant pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) variability from January 2003 to December 2011.The data were analysed from daily Level 1A (1km spatial resolution) to monthly composites Level 3 data using SeaDAS and ERDAS imagine software. Four modes was obtained from the analysis with the highest variance (7.9%) represented by mode 1 which explained the seasonal cycle. Mode 2 (5.11 % of total variance) showed positive and negative peak signal during March and April and in October and November with variability near the Kelantan and Pahang waters that indicated the inter monsoon. Mode 3 (3.8 % of variance) shows variability near the Terengganu, Kelantan and Johor waters to the open sea during July and August and in May and June representing the Southwest monsoon. Mode 4 (3.36 %) showed positive signal during November and December with strong signal near Pahang and Kelantan waters while weak signal was detected near Terengganu and Kelantan's open sea representing the Northeast monsoon. The SST variability was influenced by the monsoonal system which originated by the wind forcing condition that influences circulation in the study area.

  18. The global surface composition of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko nucleus by Rosetta/VIRTIS. II) Diurnal and seasonal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciarniello, M.; Raponi, A.; Capaccioni, F.; Filacchione, G.; Tosi, F.; De Sanctis, M. C.; Kappel, D.; Rousseau, B.; Arnold, G.; Capria, M. T.; Barucci, M. A.; Quirico, E.; Longobardo, A.; Kuehrt, E.; Mottola, S.; Erard, S.; Bockelée-Morvan, D.; Leyrat, C.; Migliorini, A.; Zinzi, A.; Palomba, E.; Schmitt, B.; Piccioni, G.; Cerroni, P.; Ip, W.-H.; Rinaldi, G.; Salatti, M.

    2016-11-01

    VIRTIS-M observations of the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko acquired from 2014 August to 2015 May have been analysed to investigate surface temporal variability at both seasonal and diurnal scales. The measured reflectance spectra are studied by means of comet spectral indicators (CSI) such as slopes in the visible and infrared ranges, and 3.2 μm band area and band centre. CSI maps derived from data acquired at different heliocentric distances (from 3.62 to 1.72 au) along the inbound leg of the comet's orbit are used to infer surface water ice abundance. We measure a global scale enrichment of water ice from 2014 August to 2015 May across the body of the comet, along with variability at small spatial scale, possibly related with the local insolation conditions. Analysis of water ice diurnal variability is performed on 2014 August observations. Water ice appears at the border of receding shadows in the neck of the comet (Hapi), sublimating in less than 1 h, after exposure to sunlight. As similar variability is not observed in other regions of the comet, we interpreted this as the expression of a diurnal cycle of sublimation and re-condensation of water ice, triggered by sudden shadowing produced on the neck by the body and the head of the nucleus.

  19. Seasonal variability of faecal indicator bacteria numbers and die-off rates in the Red River basin, North Viet Nam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Huong Thi Mai; Le, Quynh Thi Phuong; Garnier, J.; Janeau, J.-L.; Rochelle-Newall, E.

    2016-02-01

    The Red River is the second largest river in Viet Nam and constitutes the main water source for a large percentage of the population of North Viet Nam. Here we present the results of an annual survey of Escherichia coli (EC) and Total Coliforms (TC) in the Red River basin, North Viet Nam. The objective of this work was to obtain information on faecal indicator bacteria (FIB) numbers over an annual cycle and, secondly, to determine the die-off rates of these bacterial indicators. Monthly observations at 10 stations from July 2013-June 2014 showed that TC and EC reached as high as 39100 cfu (colony forming units) 100 ml-1 and 15300 colonies 100 ml-1, respectively. We observed a significant seasonal difference for TC (p < 0.05) with numbers being higher during the wet season. In contrast, no significant seasonal difference was found for EC. The FIB die-off rates ranged from 0.01 d-1 to a maximum of 1.13 d-1 for EC and from 0.17 d-1 to 1.33 d-1 for TC. Die-off rates were significantly higher for free bacteria than for total (free + particle attached) bacteria, suggesting that particle attachment provided a certain level of protection to FIB in this system.

  20. Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carrillo, Carlos M.; Castro, Christopher L.; Chang, Hsin-I.; Luong, Thang M.

    2017-12-01

    This investigation evaluates whether there is coherency in warm and cool season precipitation at the low-frequency scale that may be responsible for multi-year droughts in the US Southwest. This low-frequency climate variability at the decadal scale and longer is studied within the context of a twentieth-century reanalysis (20CR) and its dynamically-downscaled version (DD-20CR). A spectral domain matrix methods technique (Multiple-Taper-Method Singular Value Decomposition) is applied to these datasets to identify statistically significant spatiotemporal precipitation patterns for the cool (November-April) and warm (July-August) seasons. The low-frequency variability in the 20CR is evaluated by exploring global to continental-scale spatiotemporal variability in moisture flux convergence (MFC) to the occurrence of multiyear droughts and pluvials in Central America, as this region has a demonstrated anti-phase relationship in low-frequency climate variability with northern Mexico and the southwestern US By using the MFC in lieu of precipitation, this study reveals that the 20CR is able to resolve well the low-frequency, multiyear climate variability. In the context of the DD-20CR, multiyear droughts and pluvials in the southwestern US (in the early twentieth century) are significantly related to this low-frequency climate variability. The precipitation anomalies at these low-frequency timescales are in phase between the cool and warm seasons, consistent with the concept of dual-season drought as has been suggested in tree ring studies.

  1. REPRODUCTIVE SEASONALITY OF SHEEP IN MEXICO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Arroyo

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available In order to discuss and analyze the available information concerning the seasonal breeding behavior of sheep in Mexico, this review was conducted. We analyzed the neuroendocrine basis that modulate the annual reproductive cycle in sheep and then discussed the degree of reproductive seasonality in Creole sheep wool, breeds originating in high latitudes and hair sheep, mainly in Pelibuey ewes. The Creole sheep wool show continuous annual reproductive activity and short seasonal anestrous. The females of northern origin, express seasonal reproductive activity, similar to that observed in individuals geographically located at latitudes above 35º. Pelibuey sheep show variable annual reproductive behavior with reduced anestrus or lack thereof.  It is suggested that the neuroendocrine mechanisms regulating seasonal anestrus in ewes, are active in the sheep of northern origin that live in Mexico, in a manner contrary is not activated in Creole and hair sheep.

  2. Remotely Sensed Northern Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Growing Season and Productivity Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, S.; Park, Taejin; Choi, Sungho; Bi, Jian; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Myneni, Ranga

    2016-01-01

    Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.

  3. Study of the daily and seasonal atmospheric CH4 mixing ratio variability in a rural Spanish region using 222Rn tracer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossi, Claudia; Vogel, Felix R.; Curcoll, Roger; Àgueda, Alba; Vargas, Arturo; Rodó, Xavier; Morguí, Josep-Anton

    2018-04-01

    The ClimaDat station at Gredos (GIC3) has been continuously measuring atmospheric (dry air) mixing ratios of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4), as well as meteorological parameters, since November 2012. In this study we investigate the atmospheric variability of CH4 mixing ratios between 2013 and 2015 at GIC3 with the help of co-located observations of 222Rn concentrations, modelled 222Rn fluxes and modelled planetary boundary layer heights (PBLHs). Both daily and seasonal changes in atmospheric CH4 can be better understood with the help of atmospheric concentrations of 222Rn (and the corresponding fluxes). On a daily timescale, the variation in the PBLH is the main driver for 222Rn and CH4 variability while, on monthly timescales, their atmospheric variability seems to depend on emission changes. To understand (changing) CH4 emissions, nocturnal fluxes of CH4 were estimated using two methods: the radon tracer method (RTM) and a method based on the EDGARv4.2 bottom-up emission inventory, both using FLEXPARTv9.0.2 footprints. The mean value of RTM-based methane fluxes (FR_CH4) is 0.11 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 with a standard deviation of 0.09 or 0.29 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 with a standard deviation of 0.23 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 when using a rescaled 222Rn map (FR_CH4_rescale). For our observational period, the mean value of methane fluxes based on the bottom-up inventory (FE_CH4) is 0.33 mg CH4 m-2 h-1 with a standard deviation of 0.08 mg CH4 m-2 h-1. Monthly CH4 fluxes based on RTM (both FR_CH4 and FR_CH4_rescale) show a seasonality which is not observed for monthly FE_CH4 fluxes. During January-May, RTM-based CH4 fluxes present mean values 25 % lower than during June-December. This seasonal increase in methane fluxes calculated by RTM for the GIC3 area appears to coincide with the arrival of transhumant livestock at GIC3 in the second half of the year.

  4. Seasonal weather-related decision making for cattle production in the Northern Great Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    High inter-annual variability of seasonal weather patterns can greatly affect forage and therefore livestock production in the Northern Great Plains. This variability can make it difficult for ranchers to set yearly stocking rates, particularly in advance of the grazing season. To better understand ...

  5. Behavioral characteristics of Hanwoo ( steers at different growth stages and seasons

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    Na Yeon Kim

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Objective This research analyzed behavioral characteristics of Hanwoo (Bos taurus coreanae steers during each season and growth stage to enable measurement of the animals’ welfare level for precision livestock farming. Methods A hundred-eight beef steers were divided into three equal groups at a Hanwoo farm according to their growth stage: growing stage (GS, 8 months; early-fattening stage (EFS, 19 months; and late-fattening stage (LFS, 30 months. Twelve behavioral categories were continuously recorded for 13 day-time hours in each four seasons with three replications. Results Time spent standing was found to be significantly longer in summer at all growth stages (p<0.05. Hanwoos at the GS spent significantly longer standing time in spring and summer than those at the EFS and LFS (p<0.05. Lying time in summer was the shortest for all growth stages (p<0.05. Steers at the LFS spent significantly longer lying time than that at the GS (p<0.05 in summer. For GS and EFS, time spent eating in spring and autumn were longer than in summer and winter (p<0.05. Eating time was the longest for the GS in spring, autumn, and winter, excluding for the LFS in winter (p<0.05. Regarding ruminating, steers at the LFS spent significantly shorter time than those at other stages in all seasons (p<0.05. GS and EFS steers showed the longest walking time in summer compared with other seasons (p<0.05. At GS and LFS, drinking time in summer was the longest of all seasons (p<0.05. Sleeping time was significantly shorter in summer compared with the other seasons (p<0.05. Self-grooming time was the longest in winter for all growth stages (p<0.05. Conclusion Steers were found to have more variable behavioral patterns during summer and the GS and less active behaviors during the LFS, thus extra care seems necessary during the GS, LFS, and summer period.

  6. Estimation of selected seasonal streamflow statistics representative of 1930-2002 in West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiley, Jeffrey B.; Atkins, John T.

    2010-01-01

    Regional equations and procedures were developed for estimating seasonal 1-day 10-year, 7-day 10-year, and 30-day 5-year hydrologically based low-flow frequency values for unregulated streams in West Virginia. Regional equations and procedures also were developed for estimating the seasonal U.S. Environmental Protection Agency harmonic-mean flows and the 50-percent flow-duration values. The seasons were defined as winter (January 1-March 31), spring (April 1-June 30), summer (July 1-September 30), and fall (October 1-December 31). Regional equations were developed using ordinary least squares regression using statistics from 117 U.S. Geological Survey continuous streamgage stations as dependent variables and basin characteristics as independent variables. Equations for three regions in West Virginia-North, South-Central, and Eastern Panhandle Regions-were determined. Drainage area, average annual precipitation, and longitude of the basin centroid are significant independent variables in one or more of the equations. The average standard error of estimates for the equations ranged from 12.6 to 299 percent. Procedures developed to estimate the selected seasonal streamflow statistics in this study are applicable only to rural, unregulated streams within the boundaries of West Virginia that have independent variables within the limits of the stations used to develop the regional equations: drainage area from 16.3 to 1,516 square miles in the North Region, from 2.78 to 1,619 square miles in the South-Central Region, and from 8.83 to 3,041 square miles in the Eastern Panhandle Region; average annual precipitation from 42.3 to 61.4 inches in the South-Central Region and from 39.8 to 52.9 inches in the Eastern Panhandle Region; and longitude of the basin centroid from 79.618 to 82.023 decimal degrees in the North Region. All estimates of seasonal streamflow statistics are representative of the period from the 1930 to the 2002 climatic year.

  7. Seasonal Variability of Saturn's Tropospheric Temperatures, Winds and Para-H2 from Cassini Far-IR Spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Leigh N.; Irwin, P. G. J; Achterberg, R. K.; Orton, G. S.; Flasar, F. M.

    2015-01-01

    temperatures, para-H2 and winds. Quantitative differences between the Cassini and Voyager epochs suggest that the oscillation is not in phase with the seasonal cycle at these tropospheric depths (i.e., it should be described as quasi-periodic rather than 'semi annual'). Variability in the zonal wind field derived from latitudinal thermal gradients is small (less than 10 m/s per scale height near the tropopause) and mostly affects the broad retrograde jets, with the notable exception of large variability on the northern flank of the equatorial jet. The meridional potential vorticity (PV) gradient, and hence the 'staircase of PV' associated with spatial variations in the vigour of vertical mixing, has varied over the course of the mission but maintained its overall shape. PV gradients in latitude and altitude are used to estimate the atmospheric refractive index for the propagation of stationary planetary (Rossby) waves, predicting that such wave activity would be confined to regions of real refractivity (tropical regions plus bands at 35-45 in both hemispheres). The penetration depth of these regions into the upper troposphere is temporally variable (potentially associated with stratification changes), whereas the latitudinal structure is largely unchanged over time (associated with the zonal jet system).

  8. Grassland Growth in Response to Climate Variability in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan

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    Sawaid Abbas

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Grasslands in the upper Indus basin provide a resource base for nomadic livestock grazing which is one of the major traditional livelihood practices in the area. The study presents climate patterns, grassland phenology, productivity and spatio-temporal climate controls on grassland growth using satellite data over the upper Indus basin of the Himalayan region, Pakistan. Phenology and productivity metrics of the grasses were estimated using a combination of derivative and threshold methods applied on fitted seasonal vegetation indices data over the period of 2001–2011. Satellite based rainfall and land surface temperature data are considered as representative explanatory variables to climate variability. The results showed distinct phenology and productivity patterns across four bioclimatic regions: (i humid subtropical region (HSR—late start and early end of season with short length of season and low productivity (ii temperate region (TR—early start and late end of season with higher length of season and moderate productivity (iii sub alpine region (SAR—late start and late end of season with very high length of season and the most productive grasses, and (iv alpine region (AR—late start and early end of season with small length of season and least productive grasses. Grassland productivity is constrained by temperature in the alpine region and by rainfall in the humid sub-tropical region. Spring temperature, winter and summer rainfall has shown significant and varied impact on phenology across different altitudes. The productivity is being influenced by summer and annual rainfall in humid subtropical regions, spring temperature in alpine and sub-alpine regions and both temperature and rainfall are contributing in temperate regions. The results revealing a strong relationship between grassland dynamics and climate variability put forth strong signals for drawing more scientific management of rangelands in the area.

  9. Seasonal and Sexual Variation in Metabolism, Thermoregulation, and Hormones in the Big Brown Bat (Eptesicus fuscus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Christopher S; Heeren, Tim; Kunz, Thomas H

    In response to seasonal variation in energy availability and thermal environment, physiological and endocrine mechanisms have evolved in temperate zone animals. Seasonal changes in hormone activity affect metabolism, body temperature, and reproductive activity. We examined the seasonal regulatory role of hormones on basal metabolic rate (BMR) and regulatory nonshivering thermogenesis (RNST) in 98 female and 17 male adult Eptesicus fuscus (big brown bat). We measured BMR, RNST, and plasma levels of thyroid hormone (T 3 ), leptin, and cortisol in bats captured in maternity colonies in eastern Massachusetts from May to August (from arousal from the hibernation phase to the prehibernation phase). We hypothesized that all three hormones are seasonally primarily metabolic hormones and secondarily thermogenic hormones. In males, only BMR significantly changed seasonally. In females, all five variables significantly changed seasonally. The seasonal pattern of plasma leptin and cortisol levels correlated with the seasonal pattern of BMR, with an initial increase followed by a decrease, suggesting that leptin and cortisol are primarily metabolic hormones. The seasonal pattern of plasma T 3 levels generally paralleled the basic seasonal pattern of RNST, with both increasing at the second half of the season, suggesting that T 3 is primarily a thermogenic hormone. The observed decrease in plasma leptin levels may be necessary to allow for the observed seasonal decrease in BMR, with the similar cortisol pattern important for leptin regulation. While T 3 is needed to maintain BMR, it may play a more critical role in the seasonal regulation of RNST than of BMR.

  10. A Principal Component Analysis (PCA Approach to Seasonal and Zooplankton Diversity Relationships in Fishing Grounds of Mannar Gulf, India

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    Selvin J. PITCHAIKANI

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Principal component analysis (PCA is a technique used to emphasize variation and bring out strong patterns in a dataset. It is often used to make data easy to explore and visualize. The primary objective of the present study was to record information of zooplankton diversity in a systematic way and to study the variability and relationships among seasons prevailed in Gulf of Mannar. The PCA for the zooplankton seasonal diversity was investigated using the four seasonal datasets to understand the statistical significance among the four seasons. Two different principal components (PC were segregated in all the seasons homogeneously. PCA analyses revealed that Temora turbinata is an opportunistic species and zooplankton diversity was significantly different from season to season and principally, the zooplankton abundance and its dynamics in Gulf of Mannar is structured by seasonal current patterns. The factor loadings of zooplankton for different seasons in Tiruchendur coastal water (GOM is different compared with the Southwest coast of India; particularly, routine and opportunistic species were found within the positive and negative factors. The copepods Acrocalanus gracilis and Acartia erythrea were dominant in summer and Southwest monsoon due to the rainfall and freshwater discharge during the summer season; however, these species were replaced by Temora turbinata during Northeast monsoon season.

  11. Diurnal and seasonal variability of outdoor radon concentration in the area of the NRPI Prague.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jilek, K; Slezákova, M; Thomas, J

    2014-07-01

    In autumn 2010, an outdoor measuring station for measurement of atmospheric radon, gamma equivalent dose rate in the range of 100 nSv h(-1)-1 Sv h(-1) and proper meteorological parameters such as thermal air gradient, relative air humidity, wind speed and direction and solar radiation intensity was built in the area of the National Radiation Protection Institute vvi. The station was designed to be independent of an electrical network and enables on-line wireless transfer of all data. After introduction of the station, illustrations of its measurement properties and the results of measured diurnal and seasonal variability of atmospheric radon, based on annual continuous measurement using a high-volume scintillation cell at a height of 2.5 m above the ground, are presented. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  12. Atmospheric deposition of mercury in central Poland: Sources and seasonal trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siudek, Patrycja; Kurzyca, Iwona; Siepak, Jerzy

    2016-03-01

    Atmospheric deposition of total mercury was studied at two sites in central Poland, between April 2013 and October 2014. Hg in rainwater (bulk deposition) was analyzed in relation to meteorological parameters and major ions (H+, NO3-, Cl-, SO42 -) in order to investigate seasonal variation, identify sources and determine factors affecting atmospheric Hg chemistry and deposition. Total mercury concentrations varied between 1.24 and 22.1 ng L- 1 at the urban sampling site (Poznań) and between 0.57 and 18.3 ng L- 1 in the woodland protected area (Jeziory), with quite similar mean values of 6.96 and 6.37 ng L- 1, respectively. Mercury in precipitation exhibited lower spatial variability within the study domain (urban/forest transect) than the concentrations determined during other similar observations, reflecting the predominant influence of the same local sources. In our study, a significant seasonal pattern of Hg deposition was observed at both sampling sites, with higher and more variable concentrations of Hg reported for the urban area. In particular, deposition values of Hg were higher in the samples attributed to relatively large precipitation amounts in the summer and in those collected during the winter season (the result of higher contributions from combustion sources, i.e. intensive combustion of fossil fuels in residential and commercial boilers, individual power/heat-generating plants). In addition, a significant relationship between Hg concentration and precipitation amount was found while considering different types of wintertime samples (i.e. rain, snow and mixed precipitation). The analysis of backward trajectories showed that air masses arriving from polluted regions of western Europe and southern Poland largely affected the amount of Hg in rainwater. A seasonal variation in Hg deposition fluxes was also observed, with the maximum value of Hg in spring and minimum in winter. Our results indicated that rainwater Hg and, consequently, the wet deposition

  13. Seasonal variability of carbonaceous aerosols in an urban background area in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cesari, D.; Merico, E.; Dinoi, A.; Marinoni, A.; Bonasoni, P.; Contini, D.

    2018-02-01

    Organic (OC) and Elemental Carbon (EC) are important components of atmospheric aerosol particles, playing a key role in climate system and potentially affecting human health. There is a lack of data reported for Southern Italy and this work aims to fill this gap, focusing the attention on the long-term trends of OC and EC concentrations in PM2.5 and PM10, and on atmospheric processes and sources influencing seasonal variability. Measurements were taken at the Environmental-Climate Observatory of Lecce (SE Italy, 40°20‧8″N-18°07‧28″E, 37 m a.s.l.), regional station of the Global Atmosphere Watch program (GAW-WMO). Daily PM10 and PM2.5 samples were collected between July 2013 and July 2016. In addition, starting in December 2014, simultaneous equivalent Black Carbon (eBC) concentrations in PM10 were measured using a Multi Angle Absorption Photometer. A subset of 722 PM samples (361 for each size fraction) was analysed by using a thermo-optical method with a Sunset Laboratory OC/EC analyser, to determine elemental and organic carbon concentrations. The average PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations were 28.8 μg/m3 and 17.5 μg/m3. The average OC and EC concentrations in PM10 were 5.4 μg/m3 and 0.8 μg/m3, in PM2.5 these were 4.7 μg/m3 and 0.6 μg/m3. Carbonaceous content was larger during cold season with respect to warm season as well as secondary organic carbon (SOC) that was evaluated using the OC/EC minimum ratio method. SOC was mainly segregated in PM2.5 and represented 53% - 75% of the total OC. A subset of EC data was compared with eBC measurements, showing a good correlation (R2 = 0.80), however, eBC concentrations were higher than EC concentrations of an average factor of 1.95 (+/- 0.55 standard deviation). This could be explained by the presence of a contribution of Brown Carbon (BrC), for example from biomass burning, in eBC measurements. Weekly patterns showed a slight decrease of carbon content during weekends with respect to weekdays especially

  14. Predictions of Tropospheric Zenithal Delay for South America : Seasonal Variability and Quality Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Augusto Toledo Machado

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available The Zenithal Tropospheric Delay (Z TD is an important error source in the observable involved in the positioning methods using artificial satellite. Frequently, the Z TD influence in the positioning is minimized by applying empirical models. However, such models are not able to supply the precision required to some real time applications, such as navigation and steak out. In 2010 it will be implanted the new navigation and administration system of the air traffic, denominated CNS-ATM (Communication Navigation Surveillance - Air Traffic Management. In this new system the application of positioning techniques by satellites in the air traffic will be quite explored because they provide good precision in real time. The predictions of Z TD values from Numeric Weather Prediction (NWP, denominated dynamic modeling, is an alternative to model the atmospheric gases effects in the radio-frequency signals in real time. The Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies (CPTEC has generated operationally prediction of Z TD values to South American Continent since March, 2004. The aims of the present paper are to investigate the Z TD seasonal variability and evaluate the quality of predicted Z TD values. One year of GPS data from Brazilian Continuous GPS Network (RBMC was used in this evaluation. The RMS values resulting from this evaluation were in the range of 4 to 11 cm. Considering the Z TDtemporal variability, the advantages provide by this modeling, the results obtained in this evaluation and the future improvements, this work shows that the dynamic modeling has great potential to become the most appropriate alternative to model Z TD in real time.

  15. The role of phytoplankton dynamics in the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon in the subpolar North Atlantic – a modeling study

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    S. R. Signorini

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We developed an ecosystem/biogeochemical model system, which includes multiple phytoplankton functional groups and carbon cycle dynamics, and applied it to investigate physical-biological interactions in Icelandic waters. Satellite and in situ data were used to evaluate the model. Surface seasonal cycle amplitudes and biases of key parameters (DIC, TA, pCO2, air-sea CO2 flux, and nutrients are significantly improved when compared to surface observations by prescribing deep water values and trends, based on available data. The seasonality of the coccolithophore and "other phytoplankton" (diatoms and dinoflagellates blooms is in general agreement with satellite ocean color products. Nutrient supply, biomass and calcite concentrations are modulated by light and mixed layer depth seasonal cycles. Diatoms are the most abundant phytoplankton, with a large bloom in early spring and a secondary bloom in fall. The diatom bloom is followed by blooms of dinoflagellates and coccolithophores. The effect of biological changes on the seasonal variability of the surface ocean pCO2 is nearly twice the temperature effect, in agreement with previous studies. The inclusion of multiple phytoplankton functional groups in the model played a major role in the accurate representation of CO2 uptake by biology. For instance, at the peak of the bloom, the exclusion of coccolithophores causes an increase in alkalinity of up to 4 μmol kg−1 with a corresponding increase in DIC of up to 16 μmol kg−1. During the peak of the bloom in summer, the net effect of the absence of the coccolithophores bloom is an increase in pCO2 of more than 20 μatm and a reduction of atmospheric CO2 uptake of more than 6 mmol m−2 d−1. On average, the impact of coccolithophores is an increase of air-sea CO2 flux of about 27%. Considering the areal

  16. Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahlstein, I; Knutti, R; Solomon, S; Portmann, R W

    2011-01-01

    The Earth is warming on average, and most of the global warming of the past half-century can very likely be attributed to human influence. But the climate in particular locations is much more variable, raising the question of where and when local changes could become perceptible enough to be obvious to people in the form of local warming that exceeds interannual variability; indeed only a few studies have addressed the significance of local signals relative to variability. It is well known that the largest total warming is expected to occur in high latitudes, but high latitudes are also subject to the largest variability, delaying the emergence of significant changes there. Here we show that due to the small temperature variability from one year to another, the earliest emergence of significant warming occurs in the summer season in low latitude countries (∼25 deg. S-25 deg. N). We also show that a local warming signal that exceeds past variability is emerging at present, or will likely emerge in the next two decades, in many tropical countries. Further, for most countries worldwide, a mean global warming of 1 deg. C is sufficient for a significant temperature change, which is less than the total warming projected for any economically plausible emission scenario. The most strongly affected countries emit small amounts of CO 2 per capita and have therefore contributed little to the changes in climate that they are beginning to experience.

  17. Landscape seasons and air mass dynamics in Latvia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krauklis, A.; Draveniece, A.

    2004-01-01

    Latvia is located in the middle of an area where the boreal and nemoral zones and the regions of oceanic and continental climate meet, and it was studied as a model territory of the most typical variation of boreo-nemoral ecotone. The subject of this study was seasonal dynamics of the state of landscapes and diachronous links between seasons. It was found that landscapes undergo 12 seasonal states or seasons during the annual cycle of insulation and air mass occurrence. Each season may be distinguished by a definite amount of solar radiation, distinctive state of heat and water balance, phenological state of vegetation, and a distinctive occurrence of different air mass types and their particular 'association'. During each season these variables show a particular combination of numerical values and a distinctive landscape pattern

  18. Cold season Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern and its relation to the Atlantic multidecadal variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Cheng; Li, Jianping; Ding, Ruiqiang; Jin, Ze

    2017-06-01

    A prominent teleconnection pattern of multidecadal variability of cold season (November to April) upper-level atmospheric circulation over North Africa and Eurasia (NA-EA) is revealed by empirical orthogonal function analysis of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data. This teleconnection pattern is characterized by an eastward propagating wave train with a zonal wavenumber of 5-6 between 20° and 40°N, extending from the northwest coast of Africa to East Asia, and thus is referred to as the Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection pattern (AAMT). One-point correlation maps show that the teleconnectivity of AAMT is strong and further demonstrate the existence of the AAMT. The AAMT shapes the spatial structure of multidecadal change in atmospheric circulation over the NA-EA region, and in particular the AAMT pattern and associated fields show similar structures to the change occurring around the early 1960s. A strong in-phase relationship is observed between the AAMT and Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) and this connection is mainly due to Rossby wave dynamics. Barotropic modeling results suggest that the upper-level Rossby wave source generated by the AMV can excite the AAMT wave train, and Rossby wave ray tracing analysis further highlights the role of the Asian jet stream in guiding the wave train to East Asia. The AAMT acts as an atmospheric bridge conveying the influence of AMV onto the downstream multidecadal climate variability. The AMV is closely related to the coordinated change in surface and tropospheric air temperatures over Northwest Africa, the Arabian Peninsula and Central China, which may result from the adiabatic expansion/compression of air associated with the AAMT.

  19. SABER Observations of the OH Meinel Airglow Variability Near the Mesopause

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Daniel R.; Smith, Anne K.; Mlynczak, Martin G.

    2005-01-01

    The Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument, one of four on board the TIMED satellite, observes the OH Meinel emission at 2.0 m that peaks near the mesopause. The emission results from reactions between members of the oxygen and hydrogen chemical families that can be significantly affected by mesopause dynamics. In this study we compare SABER measurements of OH Meinel emission rates and temperatures with predictions from a 3-dimensional chemical dynamical model. In general, the model is capable of reproducing both the observed diurnal and seasonal OH Meinel emission variability. The results indicate that the diurnal tide has a large effect on the overall magnitude and temporal variation of the emission in low latitudes. This tidal variability is so dominant that the seasonal cycle in the nighttime emission depends very strongly on the local time of the analysis. At higher latitudes, the emission has an annual cycle that is due mainly to transport of oxygen by the seasonally reversing mean circulation.

  20. Seasonal and interannual variability in along-slope oceanic properties off the US West Coast: Inferences from a high-resolution regional model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurapov, A. L.; Pelland, N. A.; Rudnick, D. L.

    2017-07-01

    A 6 year, 2009-2014 simulation using a 2 km horizontal resolution ocean circulation model of the Northeast Pacific coast is analyzed with focus on seasonal and interannual variability in along-slope subsurface oceanic properties. Specifically, the fields are sampled on the isopycnal surface σ=26.5 kg m-3 that is found between depths of 150 and 300 m below the ocean surface over the continental slope. The fields analyzed include the depth z26.5, temperature T26.5, along-slope current v26.5, and the average potential vorticity PV between σ = 26.5 and 26.25 kg m-3. Each field is averaged in the cross-shore direction over the continental slope and presented as a function of the alongshore coordinate and time. The seasonal cycle in z26.5 shows a coherent upwelling-downwelling pattern from Mexico to Canada propagating to the north with a speed of 0.5 m s-1. The anomalously deep (-20 m) z26.5 displacement in spring-summer 2014 is forced by the southern boundary condition at 24°N as a manifestation of an emerging strong El Niño. The seasonal cycle in T26.5 is most pronounced between 36°N and 53°N indicating that subarctic waters are replaced by warmer Californian waters in summer with the speed close 0.15 m s-1, which is consistent with earlier estimates of the undercurrent speed and also present v26.5 analyses. The seasonal patterns and anomalies in z26.5 and T26.5 find confirmation in available long-term glider and shipborne observations. The PV seasonality over the slope is qualitatively different to the south and north of the southern edge of Heceta Bank (43.9°N).

  1. Variability and seasonality of active transportation in USA: evidence from the 2001 NHTS

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Active transportation including walking and bicycling is an important source of physical activity. Promoting active transportation is a challenge for the fields of public health and transportation. Descriptive data on the predictors of active transportation, including seasonal patterns in active transportation in the US as a whole, is needed to inform interventions and policies. Methods This study analyzed monthly variation in active transportation for the US using National Household Travel Survey 2001 data. For each age group of children, adolescents, adults and elderly, logistic regression models were used to identify predictors of the odds of active transportation including gender, race/ethnicity, household income level, geographical region, urbanization level, and month. Results The probability of engaging in active transportation was generally higher for children and adolescents than for adults and the elderly. Active transportation was greater in the lower income groups (except in the elderly), was lower in the South than in other regions of the US, and was greater in areas with higher urbanization. The percentage of people using active transportation exhibited clear seasonal patterns: high during summer months and low during winter months. Children and adolescents were more sensitive to seasonality than other age groups. Women, non-Caucasians, persons with lower household income, who resided in the Midwest or Northeast, and who lived in more urbanized areas had greater seasonal variation. Conclusions These descriptive results suggest that interventions and policies that target the promotion of active transportation need to consider socio-demographic factors and seasonality. PMID:21917136

  2. Effects of seasonal operation on the quality of water produced by public-supply wells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bexfield, Laura M.; Jurgens, Bryant C.

    2014-01-01

    Seasonal variability in groundwater pumping is common in many places, but resulting effects of seasonal pumping stress on the quality of water produced by public-supply wells are not thoroughly understood. Analysis of historical water-quality samples from public-supply wells completed in deep basin-fill aquifers in Modesto, California (134 wells) and Albuquerque, New Mexico (95 wells) indicates that several wells have seasonal variability in concentrations of contaminants of concern. In Modesto, supply wells are more likely to produce younger groundwater with higher nitrate and uranium concentrations during the summer (high) pumping season than during the winter (low) pumping season. In Albuquerque, supply wells are more likely to produce older groundwater with higher arsenic concentrations during the winter pumping season than during the summer pumping season. Seasonal variability in contaminant concentrations in Modesto is influenced primarily by effects of summer pumping on vertical hydraulic gradients that drive migration of shallow groundwater through the aquifer to supply wells. Variability in Albuquerque is influenced primarily by the period of time that a supply well is idle, allowing its wellbore to act as a conduit for vertical groundwater flow and contaminant migration. However, both processes are observed in each study area. Similar findings would appear to be likely in other alluvial basins with stratified water quality and substantial vertical head gradients. Results suggest that even in aquifers dominated by old groundwater, changes to seasonal pumping patterns and/or to depth of well completion can help reduce vulnerability to selected contaminants of either natural or anthropogenic origin.

  3. Temporal variability of mass transport across Canary Islands Channels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marrero-Díaz, Ángeles; Rodríguez-Santana, Ángel; José Machín, Francisco; García-Weil, Luis; Sangrà, Pablo; Vélez-Belchí, Pedro; Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio

    2014-05-01

    The equatorward flowing Canary Current (CC) is the main feature of the circulation in the Canary Islands region. The CC flow perturbation by the Canary Islands originate the Canary Eddy Corridor which is the major pathway for long lived eddies in the subtropical North Atlantic (Sangrà et al., 2009, DSR). Therefore the variability of the CC passing through the Canary Archipelago will have both local and regional importance. Past studies on the CC variability trough the Canary Islands point out a clearly seasonal variability (Fraile-Nuez et al, 2010 (JGR); Hernández-Guerra et al, 2002 (DSR)). However those studies where focused on the eastern islands channels missing the variability through the western island channels which are the main source of long lived eddies. In order to fill this gap from November 2012 until September 2013 we conducted trimonthly surveys crossing the whole islands channels using opportunity ships (Naviera Armas Ferries). XBT and XCTD where launched along the cross channels transects. Additionally a closed box circling the Archipelago was performed on October 2013 as part of the cruise RAPROCAN-2013 (IEO) using also XBT and XCTD. Dynamical variables where derived inferring salinity from S(T,p) analytical relationships for the region updated with new XCTD data. High resolution, vertical sections of temperature, potential density, geostrophic velocity and transport where obtained. Our preliminary results suggest that the CC suffer a noticeable acceleration in those islands channels where eddy shedding is more frequent. They also indicate a clearly seasonal variability of the flows passing the islands channels. With this regard we observed significant differences on the obtained seasonal variability with respect the cited past studies on the eastern islands channel (Lanzarote / Fuerteventura - Africa coast). This work was co-funded by Canary Government (TRAMIC project: PROID20100092) and the European Union (FEDER).

  4. Seasonal and geographical variability in some trace elements of Pacific oysters (Crassostrea Gigas) cultured in two different bays of Northern Chile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gras, N.; Thieck, M.; Munoz, L.

    1991-01-01

    Chile has approximately 4,500 kilometers of continental coastline on the Pacific Ocean. It is therefore in a favorable position to develop fishing activities, since its waters contain a great variety of marine resources, namely, fish, shellfish and seaweeds. Fishing in Chile plays an important role in production. Metal contamination of the marine ecosystem is a pervasive and worldwide problem. Consequently, seafood consuming and exporting countries have gradually increased the need to improve the quality of their products in order to meet the required standards. In turn, this implies the need to adopt more efficient methods to analyze these resources by carrying out studies that will provide greater integral knowledge on the levels of essential and toxic trace elements found in seafood. In the present study, seasonal and geographical variability of some trace elements content of Pacific Oysters (Crassostrea Gigas) cultured, greatly demanded on the international market, are investigated. Samples for the analysis were collected from two different bays of Northern Chile, where heavy-metal pollution is already recognized as a problem. The trace elements content of this mollusk was studied at monthly intervals for 12 months (September 1987-August 1988). The determination of Cu was carried out using radiochemical neutron activation analysis and the other trace elements like Cd, As, Br, Na, Se, Cr, Fe, Zn and Co, were determined through neutron activation analysis in its purely instrumental form. NBS Standard Reference Materials were used to determine the accuracy of both methods. Significant differences were found comparing the content of copper and cadmium at the different seasons and locations of capture

  5. The role of open ocean boundary forcing on seasonal to decadal-scale variability and long-term change of natural shelf hypoxia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Pedro M S; Dewitte, Boris; Paulmier, Aurelien; Scranton, Mary I; Van der Plas, Anja K

    2011-01-01

    In this study we investigate the possible reasons for the widespread differences between the seasonal cycles of carbon production and export compared to those of hypoxia in eastern boundary upwelling systems. An idealized model is proposed that qualitatively characterizes the relative roles of physics and biogeochemical fluxes. The model is tested on three contrasting upwelling systems: the Benguela (from relatively aerated to interannual anoxic), the Humboldt (sub-oxic and interannually anoxic) and the Cariaco (permanently anoxic). Overall we propose that shelf hypoxia variability can be explained on the basis of the interaction between ventilation by ocean boundary forcing through ocean-shelf exchange and the role of shelf geometry in the retention of shelf-based particulate organic carbon (POC) fluxes. We aim to identify the hypoxia regimes associated with low ventilation-wide-shelf systems and high ventilation-narrow-shelf systems, considering them as extremes of conditions controlled by the two factors. We propose that this may help to explain differences in the seasonal cycles of the biogeochemical drivers and responses as well as difference between upwelling systems and within individual upwelling systems. It is suggested that when seasonal hypoxia emerges it does so preferentially at a wide-shelf part of a system.

  6. European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator: External Validation, Variability, and Clinical Significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Gómez, Enrique; Carrasco-Valiente, Julia; Blanca-Pedregosa, Ana; Barco-Sánchez, Beatriz; Fernandez-Rueda, Jose Luis; Molina-Abril, Helena; Valero-Rosa, Jose; Font-Ugalde, Pilar; Requena-Tapia, Maria José

    2017-04-01

    To externally validate the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) risk calculator (RC) and to evaluate its variability between 2 consecutive prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values. We prospectively catalogued 1021 consecutive patients before prostate biopsy for suspicion of prostate cancer (PCa). The risk of PCa and significant PCa (Gleason score ≥7) from 749 patients was calculated according to ERSPC-RC (digital rectal examination-based version 3 of 4) for 2 consecutive PSA tests per patient. The calculators' predictions were analyzed using calibration plots and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (area under the curve). Cohen kappa coefficient was used to compare the ability and variability. Of 749 patients, PCa was detected in 251 (33.5%) and significant PCa was detected in 133 (17.8%). Calibration plots showed an acceptable parallelism and similar discrimination ability for both PSA levels with an area under the curve of 0.69 for PCa and 0.74 for significant PCa. The ERSPC showed 226 (30.2%) unnecessary biopsies with the loss of 10 significant PCa. The variability of the RC was 16% for PCa and 20% for significant PCa, and a higher variability was associated with a reduced risk of significant PCa. We can conclude that the performance of the ERSPC-RC in the present cohort shows a high similitude between the 2 PSA levels; however, the RC variability value is associated with a decreased risk of significant PCa. The use of the ERSPC in our cohort detects a high number of unnecessary biopsies. Thus, the incorporation of ERSPC-RC could help the clinical decision to carry out a prostate biopsy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Seasonal radiogenic isotopic variability of the African dust outflow to the tropical Atlantic Ocean and across to the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Ashwini; Abouchami, W.; Galer, S. J. G.; Singh, Satinder Pal; Fomba, K. W.; Prospero, J. M.; Andreae, M. O.

    2018-04-01

    In order to assess the impact of mineral dust on climate and biogeochemistry, it is paramount to identify the sources of dust emission. In this regard, radiogenic isotopes have recently been used successfully for tracing North African dust provenance and its transport across the tropical Atlantic to the Caribbean. Here we present two time series of radiogenic isotopes (Pb, Sr and Nd) in dusts collected at the Cape Verde Islands and Barbados in order to determine the origin of the dust and examine the seasonality of westerly dust outflow from Northern Africa. Aerosol samples were collected daily during two campaigns - February 2012 (winter) and June-July 2013 (summer) - at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on the island of São Vicente (16.9°N, 24.9°W). A one-year-long time series of aerosols from Barbados (13.16°N, 59.43°W) - a receptor region in the Caribbean - was sampled at a lower, monthly resolution. Our results resolve a seasonal isotopic signal at Cape Verde shown by daily variations, with a larger radiogenic isotope variability in winter compared to that in summer. This summer signature is also observed over Barbados, indicating similar dust provenance at both locations, despite different sampling years. This constrains the isotope fingerprint of Saharan Air Layer (SAL) dust that is well-mixed during its transport. This result provides unequivocal evidence for a permanent, albeit of variable strength, long-range transport of African dust to the Caribbean and is in full agreement with atmospheric models of North African dust emission and transport across the tropical Atlantic in the SAL. The seasonal isotopic variability is related to changes in the dust source areas - mainly the Sahara and Sahel regions - that are active all-year-round, albeit with variable contributions in summer versus the winter months. Our results provide little support for much dust contributed from the Bodélé Depression in Chad - the "dustiest" place on Earth

  8. Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

    2018-01-01

    Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

  9. The seasonal influence of climate and environment on yellow fever transmission across Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, Arran; Jean, Kévin; Perea, William; Yactayo, Sergio; Biey, Joseph; Van Kerkhove, Maria; Ferguson, Neil; Garske, Tini

    2018-03-01

    Yellow fever virus (YFV) is a vector-borne flavivirus endemic to Africa and Latin America. Ninety per cent of the global burden occurs in Africa where it is primarily transmitted by Aedes spp, with Aedes aegypti the main vector for urban yellow fever (YF). Mosquito life cycle and viral replication in the mosquito are heavily dependent on climate, particularly temperature and rainfall. We aimed to assess whether seasonal variations in climatic factors are associated with the seasonality of YF reports. We constructed a temperature suitability index for YFV transmission, capturing the temperature dependence of mosquito behaviour and viral replication within the mosquito. We then fitted a series of multilevel logistic regression models to a dataset of YF reports across Africa, considering location and seasonality of occurrence for seasonal models, against the temperature suitability index, rainfall and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) as covariates alongside further demographic indicators. Model fit was assessed by the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and models were ranked by Akaike's Information Criterion which was used to weight model outputs to create combined model predictions. The seasonal model accurately captured both the geographic and temporal heterogeneities in YF transmission (AUC = 0.81), and did not perform significantly worse than the annual model which only captured the geographic distribution. The interaction between temperature suitability and rainfall accounted for much of the occurrence of YF, which offers a statistical explanation for the spatio-temporal variability in transmission. The description of seasonality offers an explanation for heterogeneities in the West-East YF burden across Africa. Annual climatic variables may indicate a transmission suitability not always reflected in seasonal interactions. This finding, in conjunction with forecasted data, could highlight areas of increased transmission and provide insights into the occurrence of

  10. The Temperature and Salinity Variabilities at Cisadane Estuary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadikusumah

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The study was conducted at Cisadane Estuary at 18 oceanographic station in Transition Monsoon Season I, East Monsoon Season, and Transition Monsoon Season II from 2003 to 2005. The area of the study was located at the longitude of 106.58° - 106.70° E and the latitude of 5.96° - 6.02°S. The measurements of temperature, salinity, tubidity and light transmision used CTD (Conductivity, Temperature and Depth Model SBE-19. The result shows that the temperature and salinity vertical profil variabilities at Cisadane Estuary underwent a change in the influence of Transition Monsoon Season I, East Monsoon Season, and Transition Monsoon Season II, for example it was obtained the leg time of the maximum salinity of Transition Monsoon Season II as the same as that of East Monsoon Season. Based on the horizontal and vertical distribution pattern analysis of the interaction between low salinity fresh water of Cisadane River and high salinity sea water of Java Sea, it was also influenced by the season variability and tide. The surface layer was much more influenced by the low salinity and the heat of sunray (seasonal variability with the weaker intensity to the lower layer. The change of the heat energy by the increase of seasonal temperature occurred in September 2003 to May 2004 ((ΔE = 600.6 ⋅ 105 Joule, July to November 2005 (ΔE = 84.9 Joule. The decrease of the heat energy occurred in June to September 2003 ((-267.6 ⋅ 105, May ke October 2004 (ΔE = 189.3 ⋅ 105 Joule and October 2004 to July 2005 (ΔE = -215.4 ⋅ 105 Joule.

  11. Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

  12. The seasonal factor at the prehistoric site of Shag River Mouth, New Zealand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higham, T.F.G.

    1997-01-01

    This paper addresses moa hunters' seasonality at the Shag River Mouth site. A two meters section in layer 4 of the SM/C: Dune site was left as a baulk in 1988 to enable the stratigraphic profile (∼2m) to be more carefully investigated. Within the baulk, detailed lensing and microstrata could be identified. Claassen (1991) has suggested that one of the most important variables in determining seasonal and prehistoric shell-bearing site formation more accurately is emphasizing finer stratigraphic resolution and more rigorous attention to retrieving midden components. At Shag River Mouth, seven sub-layers, or spits, were excavated within the 2m baulk to refine the precision of subsequent seasonal analyses and enable a detailed assessment of the components of each and their season of deposition. A variety of seasonal methods were utilised including 18 O analysis of blue mussel shell carbonate and growth ring analysis of estuarine bivalves. In addition, sagital otoliths of red cod excavated from the site were sectioned and the annual and seasonal growth rings formed during the fishes' life were analysed for seasonal information. This has enabled a detailed analysis of the seasonality of this discrete area of the Shag River Mouth site. The significance of the results for understanding the prehistoric seasonal round of activities within the site and its wider orbit is presented

  13. Seasonal variability and source apportionment of volatile organic compounds (VOCs in the Paris megacity (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Baudic

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Within the framework of air quality studies at the megacity scale, highly time-resolved volatile organic compound (C2–C8 measurements were performed in downtown Paris (urban background sites from January to November 2010. This unique dataset included non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs and aromatic/oxygenated species (OVOCs measured by a GC-FID (gas chromatograph with a flame ionization detector and a PTR-MS (proton transfer reaction – mass spectrometer, respectively. This study presents the seasonal variability of atmospheric VOCs being monitored in the French megacity and their various associated emission sources. Clear seasonal and diurnal patterns differed from one VOC to another as the result of their different origins and the influence of environmental parameters (solar radiation, temperature. Source apportionment (SA was comprehensively conducted using a multivariate mathematical receptor modeling. The United States Environmental Protection Agency's positive matrix factorization tool (US EPA, PMF was used to apportion and quantify ambient VOC concentrations into six different sources. The modeled source profiles were identified from near-field observations (measurements from three distinct emission sources: inside a highway tunnel, at a fireplace and from a domestic gas flue, hence with a specific focus on road traffic, wood-burning activities and natural gas emissions and hydrocarbon profiles reported in the literature. The reconstructed VOC sources were cross validated using independent tracers such as inorganic gases (NO, NO2, CO, black carbon (BC and meteorological data (temperature. The largest contributors to the predicted VOC concentrations were traffic-related activities (including motor vehicle exhaust, 15 % of the total mass on the annual average, and evaporative sources, 10 %, with the remaining emissions from natural gas and background (23 %, solvent use (20 %, wood-burning (18 % and a biogenic source (15 %. An

  14. Seasonal dynamics and functioning of the Sylt-Rømø Bight, northern Wadden Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    de la Vega, Camille; Horn, Sabine; Baird, Dan; Hines, David; Borrett, Stuart; Jensen, Lasse Fast; Schwemmer, Philipp; Asmus, Ragnhild; Siebert, Ursula; Asmus, Harald

    2018-04-01

    The Wadden Sea undergoes large seasonal changes in species abundance and biomass comprising its complex food web. This study examined four carbon food web models of the Sylt-Rømø Bight, one for each season. Each flow model consisted of 66 compartments depicting the respective biomass and energy budget of each ecosystem component and the flows between them. Ecological network analysis (ENA), a set of algorithms to evaluate the functioning of ecological networks, was used to assess the seasonal variability in the system properties of the Sylt-Rømø Bight food webs. We used an uncertainty analysis to quantitatively evaluate the significance of inter-seasonal differences. Clear seasonal variation was observed in most of the whole system indicators such as the flow diversity, the effective link density and the relative redundancy which varied by 12.8%, 17.3% and 10.3% respectively between the highest in summer and the lowest during fall and winter, whereas the relevant ascendency ratio was the highest in winter during the least active months. Other indices such as the average mutual information index, which fluctuated between 1.73 in fall and 1.79 in spring, showed no significant variation between seasons. Results from ENA have great potential for ecosystem management, as it provides a holistic assessment of the functioning of ecosystems.

  15. Seasonality of absolute humidity explains seasonality of influenza-like illness in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thai, Pham Quang; Choisy, Marc; Duong, Tran Nhu; Thiem, Vu Dinh; Yen, Nguyen Thu; Hien, Nguyen Tran; Weiss, Daniel J; Boni, Maciej F; Horby, Peter

    2015-12-01

    Experimental and ecological studies have shown the role of climatic factors in driving the epidemiology of influenza. In particular, low absolute humidity (AH) has been shown to increase influenza virus transmissibility and has been identified to explain the onset of epidemics in temperate regions. Here, we aim to study the potential climatic drivers of influenza-like illness (ILI) epidemiology in Vietnam, a tropical country characterized by a high diversity of climates. We specifically focus on quantifying and explaining the seasonality of ILI. We used 18 years (1993-2010) of monthly ILI notifications aggregated by province (52) and monthly climatic variables (minimum, mean, maximum temperatures, absolute and relative humidities, rainfall and hours of sunshine) from 67 weather stations across Vietnam. Seasonalities were quantified from global wavelet spectra, using the value of the power at the period of 1 year as a measure of the intensity of seasonality. The 7 climatic time series were characterized by 534 summary statistics which were entered into a regression tree to identify factors associated with the seasonality of AH. Results were extrapolated to the global scale using simulated climatic times series from the NCEP/NCAR project. The intensity of ILI seasonality in Vietnam is best explained by the intensity of AH seasonality. We find that ILI seasonality is weak in provinces experiencing weak seasonal fluctuations in AH (annual power power >17.6). In Vietnam, AH and ILI are positively correlated. Our results identify a role for AH in driving the epidemiology of ILI in a tropical setting. However, in contrast to temperate regions, high rather than low AH is associated with increased ILI activity. Fluctuation in AH may be the climate factor that underlies and unifies the seasonality of ILI in both temperate and tropical regions. Alternatively, the mechanism of action of AH on disease transmission may be different in cold-dry versus hot-humid settings

  16. Statistical Significance of the Contribution of Variables to the PCA Solution: An Alternative Permutation Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linting, Marielle; van Os, Bart Jan; Meulman, Jacqueline J.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, the statistical significance of the contribution of variables to the principal components in principal components analysis (PCA) is assessed nonparametrically by the use of permutation tests. We compare a new strategy to a strategy used in previous research consisting of permuting the columns (variables) of a data matrix…

  17. Bayesian estimation of seasonal course of canopy leaf area index from hyperspectral satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varvia, Petri; Rautiainen, Miina; Seppänen, Aku

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, Bayesian inversion of a physically-based forest reflectance model is investigated to estimate of boreal forest canopy leaf area index (LAI) from EO-1 Hyperion hyperspectral data. The data consist of multiple forest stands with different species compositions and structures, imaged in three phases of the growing season. The Bayesian estimates of canopy LAI are compared to reference estimates based on a spectral vegetation index. The forest reflectance model contains also other unknown variables in addition to LAI, for example leaf single scattering albedo and understory reflectance. In the Bayesian approach, these variables are estimated simultaneously with LAI. The feasibility and seasonal variation of these estimates is also examined. Credible intervals for the estimates are also calculated and evaluated. The results show that the Bayesian inversion approach is significantly better than using a comparable spectral vegetation index regression.

  18. Predictability of the intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics variables over South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Phakula, S

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available for the homogeneous rainfall regions. Keywords: Retro-active validation, Forecast skill, Area-averaged ROC scores, Reliability diagrams. Introduction Southern Africa is a region of significant rainfall variability on a range of temporal and spacial scales... are evaluated using retro-actively generated hindcasts through canonical correlation analysis (CCA). Retro-active forecast validation is a robust method to assess forecast model performance and give unbiased skill levels (Landman et al., 2001). Two...

  19. Basin-scale variability in plankton biomass and community metabolism in the sub-tropical North Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, W. G.; Arístegui, J.; Head, E. J. H.; Li, W. K. W.; Longhurst, A. R.; Sameoto, D. D.

    Three trans-Atlantic oceanographic surveys (Nova Scotia to Canary Islands) were carried out during fall 1992 and spring 1993 to describe the large-scale variability in hydrographic, chemical and biological properties of the upper water column of the subtropical gyre and adjacent waters. Significant spatial and temporal variability characterized a number of the biological pools and rate processes whereas others were relatively invariant. Systematic patterns were observed in the zonal distribution of some properties. Most notable were increases (eastward) in mixed-layer temperature and salinity, depths of the nitracline and chlorophyll- a maximum, regenerated production (NH 4 uptake) and bacterial production. Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations, phytoplankton biomass, mesozooplankton biomass and new production (NO 3 uptake) decreased (eastward). Bacterial biomass, primary production, and community respiration exhibited no discernible zonal distribution patterns. Seasonal variability was most evident in hydrography (cooler/fresher mixed-layer in spring), and chemistry (mixed-layer DIC concentration higher and nitracline shallower in spring) although primary production and bacterial production were significantly higher in spring than in fall. In general, seasonal variability was greater in the west than in the east; seasonality in most properties was absent west of Canary Islands (˜20°W). The distribution of autotrophs could be reasonably well explained by hydrography and nutrient structure, independent of location or season. Processes underlying the distribution of the microheterophs, however, were less clear. Heterotrophic biomass and metabolism was less variable than autotrophs and appeared to dominate the upper ocean carbon balance of the subtropical North Atlantic in both fall and spring. Geographical patterns in distribution are considered in the light of recent efforts to partition the ocean into distinct "biogeochemical provinces".

  20. GENETIC DIVERGENCE AMONG COTTON GENOTYPES GROWN IN THE MAIN SEASON AND OFF SEASON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    THIAGO ALEXANDRE SANTANA GILIO

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate the agronomic performance and estimate the genetic divergence of 18 cotton genotypes grown in the main season (sowed in December, 2012 and off season (sowed in January, 2013, considering their agronomic characteristics and resistance to Ramularia leaf spot. A randomized block experimental design was used, with five replications. The characteristics evaluated were plant height, first branch height, position of first fruiting branch, height of first fruiting branch, length between nodes, number of nodes, average number of bolls per plant, average boll weight, area under the disease progress curve (AUDPC related to the Ramularia leaf spot severity, weight of 100 - seed from the plant middle third, fiber percentage, average production per plant, yield and cotton fiber quality. The results were subjected to individual and joint analysis of variance and the genetic divergence was estimated according to multivariate procedures (Mahalanobis' generalized distance and Tocher's optimization method. The dissimilarity matrices were summed to estimate the genetic divergence, considering both growing periods. Genetic variability was found among the genotypes evaluated, in both the main season and off season. The characteristic that most contributed to the genetic divergence in the main season was the production per plant and, in the off season, was the fiber percentage. According to the results of the present work, the crosses between the genotypes BRS - 335 and FMT - 707; FM - 910 and FMT - 707; and IMA - 08 - 12427 and FMT - 707 are recommended.

  1. Animal perception of seasonal thresholds: changes in elephant movement in relation to rainfall patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkett, Patricia J; Vanak, Abi T; Muggeo, Vito M R; Ferreira, Salamon M; Slotow, Rob

    2012-01-01

    The identification of temporal thresholds or shifts in animal movement informs ecologists of changes in an animal's behaviour, which contributes to an understanding of species' responses in different environments. In African savannas, rainfall, temperature and primary productivity influence the movements of large herbivores and drive changes at different scales. Here, we developed a novel approach to define seasonal shifts in movement behaviour by examining the movements of a highly mobile herbivore (elephant; Loxodonta africana), in relation to local and regional rainfall patterns. We used speed to determine movement changes of between 8 and 14 GPS-collared elephant cows, grouped into five spatial clusters, in Kruger National Park, South Africa. To detect broad-scale patterns of movement, we ran a three-year daily time-series model for each individual (2007-2009). Piecewise regression models provided the best fit for elephant movement, which exhibited a segmented, waveform pattern over time. Major breakpoints in speed occurred at the end of the dry and wet seasons of each year. During the dry season, female elephant are constrained by limited forage and thus the distances they cover are shorter and less variable. Despite the inter-annual variability of rainfall, speed breakpoints were strongly correlated with both local and regional rainfall breakpoints across all three years. Thus, at a multi-year scale, rainfall patterns significantly affect the movements of elephant. The variability of both speed and rainfall breakpoints across different years highlights the need for an objective definition of seasonal boundaries. By using objective criteria to determine behavioural shifts, we identified a biologically meaningful indicator of major changes in animal behaviour in different years. We recommend the use of such criteria, from an animal's perspective, for delineating seasons or other extrinsic shifts in ecological studies, rather than arbitrarily fixed definitions

  2. Quantification of spatial temporal variability of snow cover and hydro-climatic variables based on multi-source remote sensing data in the Swat watershed, Hindukush Mountains, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anjum, Muhammad Naveed; Ding, Yongjian; Shangguan, Donghui; Liu, Junguo; Ahmad, Ijaz; Ijaz, Muhammad Wajid; Khan, Muhammad Imran

    2018-02-01

    The northern part of Hindukush Mountains has a perplexing environment due to the influence of adjacent mountains of Himalaya, Karakoram, and Tibetan Plateau. Although reliable evidences of climate change are available; however, a clear knowledge of snow cover dynamics in the context of climate change is missing for this region. In this study, we used various remotely sensed (TRMM precipitation product, while MODIS temperature and snow cover products) and gauge-based datasets to quantify the spatiotemporal variability of climatic variables and their turn effects over the snow cover area (SCA) and river discharge in the Swat watershed, northern Hindukush Mountains, Pakistan. The Mann-Kendall method and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate the trends in SCA and hydro-climatic variables, at 5% significant level (P = 0.05). Results show that the winter and springs temperatures have increased (at the rate of 0.079 and 0.059 °C year-1, respectively), while decreasing in the summer and autumn (at the rate of 0.049 and 0.070 °C year-1, respectively). Basin-wide increasing tendency of precipitation was identified with a highest increasing rate of 3.563 mm year-1 in the spring season. A decreasing trend in the winter SCA (at the rate of -0.275% year-1) and increasing trends in other seasons were identified. An increasing tendency of river discharge on annual and seasonal scales was also witnessed. The seasonal variations in discharge showed significant positive and negative relationships with temperature and SCA, respectively. We conclude that the future variations in the temperature and SCA in the higher altitudes of the Swat watershed could substantially affect the seasonality of the river discharge. Moreover, it implies that the effect of ongoing global warming on the SCA in the snowmelt-dominated river basins needs to be considered for sustainable regional planning and management of water resources, hydropower production, and downstream irrigation scheduling.

  3. Food price seasonality in Africa: Measurement and extent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilbert, Christopher L; Christiaensen, Luc; Kaminski, Jonathan

    2017-02-01

    Everyone knows about seasonality. But what exactly do we know? This study systematically measures seasonal price gaps at 193 markets for 13 food commodities in seven African countries. It shows that the commonly used dummy variable or moving average deviation methods to estimate the seasonal gap can yield substantial upward bias. This can be partially circumvented using trigonometric and sawtooth models, which are more parsimonious. Among staple crops, seasonality is highest for maize (33 percent on average) and lowest for rice (16½ percent). This is two and a half to three times larger than in the international reference markets. Seasonality varies substantially across market places but maize is the only crop in which there are important systematic country effects. Malawi, where maize is the main staple, emerges as exhibiting the most acute seasonal differences. Reaching the Sustainable Development Goal of Zero Hunger requires renewed policy attention to seasonality in food prices and consumption.

  4. Hygienization and control of Diplodia seriata fungus in vine pruning waste composting and its seasonal variability in open and closed systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matei, Petruta M; Sánchez-Báscones, Mercedes; Bravo-Sánchez, Carmen T; Martín-Ramos, Pablo; Martín-Villullas, M Teresa; García-González, M Cruz; Hernández-Navarro, Salvador; Navas-Gracia, Luis M; Martín-Gil, Jesús

    2016-12-01

    After the ban on sodium arsenite, waste management alternatives to the prevalent burning method, such as the hygienization and biodegradation in solid phase by composting, are required for the pruned material from grapevines affected by various fungi. In this work the dynamics of a fungus associated with vine decay (Diplodia seriata) during the composting process of a mixture of laying hen manure and vine pruning waste (2:1w/w) have been investigated in an open pile and a discontinuous closed biodigester. Through the optimization of the various physical-chemical parameters, hygienization of the infected waste materials was attained, yielding class-A organo-mineral fertilizers. Nevertheless, important differences in the efficiency of each system were observed: whereas in the open pile it took 10days to control D. seriata and 35 additional composting days to achieve full inactivation, in the discontinuous biodigester the fungus was entirely inactivated within the first 3-7days. Finally, the impact of seasonal variability was assessed and summer temperatures shown to have greater significance in the open pile. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Preseason Aerobic Fitness Predicts In-Season Injury and Illness in Female Youth Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew; Brickson, Stacey; Brooks, M Alison; Dunn, Warren

    2017-09-01

    Although preseason aerobic fitness has been suggested as a modifiable risk factor for injury in adult athletes, the relationship between aerobic fitness, injury, and illness in youth athletes is unknown. To determine whether preseason aerobic fitness predicts in-season injury and illness risk in female adolescent soccer players. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Fifty-four female adolescent soccer players underwent preseason evaluation to determine years of experience, body mass index (BMI), maximal aerobic capacity (VO 2max ), and time to exhaustion (T max ) during cycle ergometer testing. All injuries and illnesses during the subsequent 20-week season were recorded. Variables were compared between individuals with and without a self-reported injury and individuals with and without a self-reported illness. Separate Poisson regression models were developed to predict number of injuries and illnesses for each individual by use of age, years of experience, BMI, VO 2max , and T max. Twenty-eight injuries and 38 illnesses in 23 individuals were recorded during the season. Although not a statistically significant finding, individuals who reported an in-season injury had lower VO 2max than those who did not (54.9 ± 7.3 vs 58.3 ± 8.5 mL/kg/min, P = .13). Individuals who reported an illness had significantly lower VO 2max than those who did not (54.5 ± 9.9 vs 58.8 ± 6.2 mL/kg/min, P = .014). With the Poisson regression models, VO 2max was a significant predictor of both injury (odds ratio [OR], 0.95; P = .046) and illness (OR, 0.94; P = .009), while no significant relationships were identified between injury or illness and age, years of experience, T max , or BMI (all P > .05). Among adolescent female soccer players, greater preseason aerobic fitness is associated with a reduced risk of in-season injury and illness. Off-season intervention to promote aerobic fitness may help reduce the risk of lost time during the season due to injury and illness.

  6. On the Temporal Variability of Low-Mode Internal Tides in the Deep Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Richard D.; Zaron, E. D.

    2010-01-01

    In situ measurements of internal tides are typically characterized by high temporal variability, with strong dependence on stratification, mesoscale eddies, and background currents commonly observed. Thus, it is surprising to find phase-locked internal tides detectable by satellite altimetry. An important question is how much tidal variability is missed by altimetry. We address this question in several ways. We subset the altimetry by season and find only very small changes -- an important exception being internal tides in the South China Sea where we observe strong seasonal dependence. A wavenumber-domain analysis confirms that throughout most of the global ocean there is little temporal variability in altimetric internal-tide signals, at least in the first baroclinic mode, which is the mode that dominates surface elevation. The analysis shows higher order modes to be significantly more variable. The results of this study have important practical implications for the anticipated SWOT wide-swath altimeter mission, for which removal of internal tide signals is critical for observing non-tidal submesoscale phenomena.

  7. Assessment of the Growing Season Regime Region of Tanzania ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growing period for most crops continues beyond the rainy season and, to a greater or lesser extent, crops often mature on moisture reserves stored in the soil profile. When the rains start early the season is likely to be· longer, however, early rainfall (November) over unimodal areas is variable (Mhita and Nassib, 1988).

  8. Pan-Tropical Analysis of Climate Effects on Seasonal Tree Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Fabien; Rossi, Vivien; Aubry-Kientz, Mélaine; Bonal, Damien; Dalitz, Helmut; Gliniars, Robert; Stahl, Clément; Trabucco, Antonio; Hérault, Bruno

    2014-01-01

    Climate models predict a range of changes in tropical forest regions, including increased average temperatures, decreased total precipitation, reduced soil moisture and alterations in seasonal climate variations. These changes are directly related to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, primarily CO2. Assessing seasonal forest growth responses to climate is of utmost importance because woody tissues, produced by photosynthesis from atmospheric CO2, water and light, constitute the main component of carbon sequestration in the forest ecosystem. In this paper, we combine intra-annual tree growth measurements from published tree growth data and the corresponding monthly climate data for 25 pan-tropical forest sites. This meta-analysis is designed to find the shared climate drivers of tree growth and their relative importance across pan-tropical forests in order to improve carbon uptake models in a global change context. Tree growth reveals significant intra-annual seasonality at seasonally dry sites or in wet tropical forests. Of the overall variation in tree growth, 28.7% was explained by the site effect, i.e. the tree growth average per site. The best predictive model included four climate variables: precipitation, solar radiation (estimated with extrasolar radiation reaching the atmosphere), temperature amplitude and relative soil water content. This model explained more than 50% of the tree growth variations across tropical forests. Precipitation and solar radiation are the main seasonal drivers of tree growth, causing 19.8% and 16.3% of the tree growth variations. Both have a significant positive association with tree growth. These findings suggest that forest productivity due to tropical tree growth will be reduced in the future if climate extremes, such as droughts, become more frequent. PMID:24670981

  9. Mechanisms of Mixed-Layer Salinity Seasonal Variability in the Indian Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köhler, Julia; Serra, Nuno; Bryan, Frank O.; Johnson, Benjamin K.; Stammer, Detlef

    2018-01-01

    Based on a joint analysis of an ensemble mean of satellite sea surface salinity retrievals and the output of a high-resolution numerical ocean circulation simulation, physical processes are identified that control seasonal variations of mixed-layer salinity (MLS) in the Indian Ocean, a basin where salinity changes dominate changes in density. In the northern and near-equatorial Indian Ocean, annual salinity changes are mainly driven by respective changes of the horizontal advection. South of the equatorial region, between 45°E and 90°E, where evaporation minus precipitation has a strong seasonal cycle, surface freshwater fluxes control the seasonal MLS changes. The influence of entrainment on the salinity variance is enhanced in mid-ocean upwelling regions but remains small. The model and observational results reveal that vertical diffusion plays a major role in precipitation and river runoff dominated regions balancing the surface freshwater flux. Vertical diffusion is important as well in regions where the advection of low salinity leads to strong gradients across the mixed-layer base. There, vertical diffusion explains a large percentage of annual MLS variance. The simulation further reveals that (1) high-frequency small-scale eddy processes primarily determine the salinity tendency in coastal regions (in particular in the Bay of Bengal) and (2) shear horizontal advection, brought about by changes in the vertical structure of the mixed layer, acts against mean horizontal advection in the equatorial salinity frontal regions. Observing those latter features with the existing observational components remains a future challenge.

  10. Seasons can influence the results of the methacholine challenge test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Sposato

    2012-01-01

    Conclusion: There was a higher probability of finding BHR in outpatients with suspected asthma in autumn and spring compared with summer. Spring is the season where BHR may be more severe. Females and overweight/obese subjects were those mainly involved in this seasonal variability of BHR.

  11. Seasonal variations in larval biomass and biochemical composition of brown shrimp, Crangon crangon (Decapoda, Caridea), at hatching

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urzúa, Ángel; Anger, Klaus

    2013-06-01

    The "brown shrimp", Crangon crangon (Linnaeus 1758), is a benthic key species in the North Sea ecosystem, supporting an intense commercial fishery. Its reproductive pattern is characterized by a continuous spawning season from mid-winter to early autumn. During this extended period, C. crangon shows significant seasonal variations in egg size and embryonic biomass, which may influence larval quality at hatching. In the present study, we quantified seasonal changes in dry weight (W) and chemical composition (CHN, protein and lipid) of newly hatched larvae of C. crangon. Our data revealed significant variations, with maximum biomass values at the beginning of the hatching season (February-March), a decrease throughout spring (April-May) and a minimum in summer (June-September). While all absolute values of biomass and biochemical constituents per larva showed highly significant differences between months ( P larvae" hatching from larger "winter eggs" showed higher initial values of biomass compared to "summer larvae" originating from smaller "summer eggs". This indicates carry-over effects persisting from the embryonic to the larval phase. Since "winter larvae" are more likely exposed to poor nutritional conditions, intraspecific variability in larval biomass at hatching is interpreted as part of an adaptive reproductive strategy compensating for strong seasonality in plankton production and transitory periods of larval food limitation.

  12. Associations among body condition score, body weight, and reproductive performance in seasonal-calving dairy cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roche, J R; Macdonald, K A; Burke, C R; Lee, J M; Berry, D P

    2007-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to identify and quantify relationships between body condition score (BCS) and body weight (BW) in dairy cows with reproduction variables in pasture-based, seasonal-calving dairy herds. Over 2,500 lactation records from 897 spring-calving Holstein-Friesian dairy cows were used in the analyses. Eleven BCS- and 11 BW-related variables were generated, including observations at calving, nadir, planned start of mating (PSM), and first service, as well as days to nadir and the amount and rate of change between periods. The binary reproductive variables were cycling by PSM, mated in the first 21 d from PSM, pregnant to first service, and pregnant in the first 21, 42, and 84 d of the seasonal mating period. Generalized estimating equations were used to identify BCS and BW variables that significantly affected the probability of a successful reproductive outcome. After adjusting for the fixed effect of year of calving, parity (for cycling by PSM only), and the interval from calving to either first service or PSM, reproductive performance was found to be significantly affected by BW or BCS at key points, and by BCS and BW change during lactation. All reproductive response measures were negatively affected when BCS and BW measures indicated an increased severity and duration of the postpartum negative energy balance. In particular, cycling by PSM was positively associated with calving BCS, whereas pregnancy at 21, 42, and 84 d post-PSM were positively associated with nadir BCS and BW gain post-PSM, and negatively associated with BCS loss between calving and nadir. The results highlight the important role that BCS and BW loss has on reproductive performance, especially in seasonal-calving dairy systems because of the short period between calving and PSM.

  13. Significance of blood pressure variability in patients with sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pandey, Nishant Raj; Bian, Yu-Yao; Shou, Song-Tao

    2014-01-01

    This study was undertaken to observe the characteristics of blood pressure variability (BPV) and sepsis and to investigate changes in blood pressure and its value on the severity of illness in patients with sepsis. Blood parameters, APACHE II score, and 24-hour ambulatory BP were analyzed in 89 patients with sepsis. In patients with APACHE II score>19, the values of systolic blood pressure (SBPV), diasystolic blood pressure (DBPV), non-dipper percentage, cortisol (COR), lactate (LAC), platelet count (PLT) and glucose (GLU) were significantly higher than in those with APACHE II score ≤19 (Pblood cell (WBC), creatinine (Cr), PaO2, C-reactive protein (CRP), adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and tumor necrosis factor α (TNF-α) were not statistically significant (P>0.05). Correlation analysis showed that APACHE II scores correlated significantly with SBPV and DBPV (P0.05). Logistic regression analysis of SBPV, DBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was used to predict prognosis in terms of survival and non-survival rates. Receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) showed that DBPV was a better predictor of survival rate with an AUC value of 0.890. However, AUC of SBPV, APACHE II score, and LAC was 0.746, 0.831 and 0.915, respectively. The values of SBPV, DBPV and non-dipper percentage are higher in patients with sepsis. DBPV and SBPV can be used to predict the survival rate of patients with sepsis.

  14. Spatial and Seasonal Variability of Temperature in CO2 Emission from Mars' Mesosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livengood, Timothy A.; Kostiuk, Theodor; Hewagama, Tilak; Kolasinski, John R.; Henning, Wade; Fast, Kelly Elizabeth; Sonnabend, Guido; Sornig, Manuela

    2017-10-01

    We have observed non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (non-LTE) emission of carbon dioxide that probes Mars’ mesosphere in 2001, 2003, 2007, 2012, 2014, and 2016. These measurements were conducted at 10.6 μm wavelength using the Goddard Space Flight Center Heterodyne Instrument for Planetary Winds and Composition (HIPWAC) from the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) at resolving power (1-33)×106. The Maxwellian broadening of the emission line can be measured at this resolution, providing a direct determination of temperature in the mesosphere. The nonLTE line appears as a narrow emission core within a broad absorption formed by tropospheric CO2, which provides temperature information reaching down to the martian surface, while the mesospheric line probes temperature at about 60-80 km altitude. We will report on the spatial distribution of temperature and emission line strength with local solar time on Mars, with latitude, as well as long-term variability including seasonal effects that modify the overall thermal structure of the atmosphere. These remote measurements complement results from orbital spacecraft through access to a broad range of local solar time on each occasion.This work has been supported by the NASA Planetary Astronomy and Solar Systems Observations Programs

  15. Investigating the patterns and determinants of seasonal variation in vitamin D status in Australian adults: the Seasonal D Cohort Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura King

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vitamin D status generally varies seasonally with changing solar UVB radiation, time in the sun, amount of skin exposed, and, possibly, diet. The Seasonal D Study was designed to quantify the amplitude and phase of seasonal variation in the serum concentration of 25-hydroxyvitamin D, (25OHD and identify the determinants of the amplitude and phase and those of inter-individual variability in seasonal pattern. Methods The Seasonal D Study collected data 2-monthly for 12 months, including demographics, personal sun exposure using a diary and polysulphone dosimeters over 7 days, and blood for serum 25(OHD concentration. The study recruited 333 adults aged 18–79 years living in Canberra (35°S, n = 168 and Brisbane (27°South, n = 165, Australia. Discussion We report the study design and cohort description for the Seasonal D Study. The study has collected a wealth of data to examine inter- and intra-individual seasonal variation in vitamin D status and serum 25(OHD levels in Australian adults.

  16. Effects of seasonal operation on the quality of water produced by public-supply wells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bexfield, Laura M; Jurgens, Bryant C

    2014-09-01

    Seasonal variability in groundwater pumping is common in many places, but resulting effects of seasonal pumping stress on the quality of water produced by public-supply wells are not thoroughly understood. Analysis of historical water-quality samples from public-supply wells completed in deep basin-fill aquifers in Modesto, California (134 wells) and Albuquerque, New Mexico (95 wells) indicates that several wells have seasonal variability in concentrations of contaminants of concern. In Modesto, supply wells are more likely to produce younger groundwater with higher nitrate and uranium concentrations during the summer (high) pumping season than during the winter (low) pumping season. In Albuquerque, supply wells are more likely to produce older groundwater with higher arsenic concentrations during the winter pumping season than during the summer pumping season. Seasonal variability in contaminant concentrations in Modesto is influenced primarily by effects of summer pumping on vertical hydraulic gradients that drive migration of shallow groundwater through the aquifer to supply wells. Variability in Albuquerque is influenced primarily by the period of time that a supply well is idle, allowing its wellbore to act as a conduit for vertical groundwater flow and contaminant migration. However, both processes are observed in each study area. Similar findings would appear to be likely in other alluvial basins with stratified water quality and substantial vertical head gradients. Results suggest that even in aquifers dominated by old groundwater, changes to seasonal pumping patterns and/or to depth of well completion can help reduce vulnerability to selected contaminants of either natural or anthropogenic origin. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Groundwater published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of National Ground Water Association.

  17. An Investigation of the Hydroclimate Variability of Eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, K. A.; Semazzi, F. H. M.

    2015-12-01

    The flow of the Victoria Nile, and the productivity of the dams along it, is determined by the level of Lake Victoria, which is primarily dictated by the rainfall and temperature variability over the Lake Victoria Basin. Notwithstanding the indisputable decline of water resources over the lake basin during the Long Rains of March - May, there is a strong indication based on IPCC climate projections that this trend, which has persisted for several decades, will reverse in the next few decades. This phenomenon has come to be known as the Eastern-Central African climate change paradox and could have profound implications on sustainable development for the next few decades in Lake Victoria Basin. The purpose of this study is to investigate the climate variability associated with the East African Climate Change Paradox for the recent decades. This research analyzes observations to understand the sources of variability and potential physical mechanisms related to the decline in precipitation over Eastern Africa. We then investigate the hydrological factors involved in the decline of Lake Victoria levels in the context of the decline in rainfall. While East Africa has been experiencing persistent decline of the Long Rains for multiple decades, this same decline is not seen in annual rainfall. The remaining seasons show an increase in rainfall which is compensating for the decline of the Long Rains. It is possible that the Long Rains season is shifting in such a way that the season starts earlier, in February, and ending sooner. The corresponding annual Lake Victoria levels modeled using observed rainfall do not decline in the recent decades, except when the Long Rains seasonal variability is considered without variability from other seasons. This shift could impact hydroelectric power planning on a monthly or seasonal time scale, and could potentially have a large impact on agriculture, since it would shift the growing season in the region.

  18. Seasonal differences in leaf-level physiology give lianas a competitive advantage over trees in a tropical seasonal forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Zhi-Quan; Schnitzer, Stefan A; Bongers, Frans

    2009-08-01

    Lianas are an important component of most tropical forests, where they vary in abundance from high in seasonal forests to low in seasonal forests. We tested the hypothesis that the physiological ability of lianas to fix carbon (and thus grow) during seasonal drought may confer a distinct advantage in seasonal tropical forests, which may explain pan-tropical liana distributions. We compared a range of leaf-level physiological attributes of 18 co-occurring liana and 16 tree species during the wet and dry seasons in a tropical seasonal forest in Xishuangbanna, China. We found that, during the wet season, lianas had significantly higher CO(2) assimilation per unit mass (A(mass)), nitrogen concentration (N(mass)), and delta(13)C values, and lower leaf mass per unit area (LMA) than trees, indicating that lianas have higher assimilation rates per unit leaf mass and higher integrated water-use efficiency (WUE), but lower leaf structural investments. Seasonal variation in CO(2) assimilation per unit area (A(area)), phosphorus concentration per unit mass (P(mass)), and photosynthetic N-use efficiency (PNUE), however, was significantly lower in lianas than in trees. For instance, mean tree A(area) decreased by 30.1% from wet to dry season, compared with only 12.8% for lianas. In contrast, from the wet to dry season mean liana delta(13)C increased four times more than tree delta(13)C, with no reduction in PNUE, whereas trees had a significant reduction in PNUE. Lianas had higher A(mass) than trees throughout the year, regardless of season. Collectively, our findings indicate that lianas fix more carbon and use water and nitrogen more efficiently than trees, particularly during seasonal drought, which may confer a competitive advantage to lianas during the dry season, and thus may explain their high relative abundance in seasonal tropical forests.

  19. 79-87 Adding Benzene to Fire: Overlapping Seasonality as a Pull ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... influence the seasonal behaviour of farmers' high cash demand in such a way that it coincides with the lean seasons of agricultural ... The resulting price levels and variability affect the ..... can be assumed that farmers are rational and tend to.

  20. Seasonal variation in Chironomid emergence from coastal pools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander T. Egan

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the phenology of emergences can be useful in determining seasonal chironomid life cycle patterns, which are often influenced by ice cover and temperature in cold climates. Lake Superior is the largest lake in North America and with a mean surface temperature of 3.9 °C influences regional climate. Coastal pools at Isle Royale, a wilderness archipelago in the northern part of the lake, occur in dense patches on low-gradient volcanic bedrock between the lakeshore and forest, creating variable microhabitats for Chironomidae. Four sites were sampled monthly from April to October, 2010. Surface-floating pupal exuviae were collected from a series of pools in two zones: a lower zone near the lake influenced by wave splash, and an upper zone near the forest and influenced by upland runoff. We used Jaccard’s and Whittaker’s diversity indexes to test community similarity across months. Temperature loggers in pools collected hourly readings for most of the study. Assemblage emergences were stable in upper pools, with significant similarity across late spring and summer months. Assemblages were seasonally variable in lower pools, with significant dissimilarity across spring, summer, and fall months. Few species in either zone were unique to spring or fall months. However, many summer species in the splash zone had a narrow emergence period occurring during calm weather following distinct increases in mean water temperature. Regardless of input of cold lake water to the lower zone, pools from both zones generally had corresponding temperature trends.

  1. Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

    2017-12-01

    This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

  2. Snow Precipitation and Snow Cover Climatic Variability for the Period 1971–2009 in the Southwestern Italian Alps: The 2008–2009 Snow Season Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simona Fratianni

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Snow cover greatly influences the climate in the Alpine region and is one of the most relevant parameters for the climate change analysis. Nevertheless, snow precipitation variability is a relatively underexplored field of research because of the lack of long-term, continuous and homogeneous time series. After a historical research aiming to recover continuous records, three high quality time series of snow precipitation and snow depth recorded in the southwestern Italian Alps were analyzed. The comparison between the climatological indices over the 30 years reference period 1971–2000 and the decade 2000–2009 outlined a general decrease in the amount of snow precipitation, and a shift in the seasonal distribution of the snow precipitation in the most recent period. In the analysis of the last decade snow seasons characteristics, the attention was focused on the heavy snowfalls that occurred in Piedmont during the 2008–2009 snow season: MODerate resolution Imager Spectroradiometer (MODIS snow cover products were used to evaluate snow cover extension at different times during the snow season, and the results were set in relation to the temperatures.

  3. Evaluating the applicability of using daily forecasts from seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) for agriculture: a case study of Nepal's Terai with the NCEP CFSv2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jha, Prakash K.; Athanasiadis, Panos; Gualdi, Silvio; Trabucco, Antonio; Mereu, Valentina; Shelia, Vakhtang; Hoogenboom, Gerrit

    2018-03-01

    Ensemble forecasts from dynamic seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) have the potential to improve decision-making for crop management to help cope with interannual weather variability. Because the reliability of crop yield predictions based on seasonal weather forecasts depends on the quality of the forecasts, it is essential to evaluate forecasts prior to agricultural applications. This study analyses the potential of Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) in predicting the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) for producing meteorological variables relevant to crop modeling. The focus area was Nepal's Terai region, and the local hindcasts were compared with weather station and reanalysis data. The results showed that the CFSv2 model accurately predicts monthly anomalies of daily maximum and minimum air temperature (Tmax and Tmin) as well as incoming total surface solar radiation (Srad). However, the daily climatologies of the respective CFSv2 hindcasts exhibit significant systematic biases compared to weather station data. The CFSv2 is less capable of predicting monthly precipitation anomalies and simulating the respective intra-seasonal variability over the growing season. Nevertheless, the observed daily climatologies of precipitation fall within the ensemble spread of the respective daily climatologies of CFSv2 hindcasts. These limitations in the CFSv2 seasonal forecasts, primarily in precipitation, restrict the potential application for predicting the interannual variability of crop yield associated with weather variability. Despite these limitations, ensemble averaging of the simulated yield using all CFSv2 members after applying bias correction may lead to satisfactory yield predictions.

  4. Representativeness and seasonality of major ion records derived from NEEM firn cores

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Gfeller

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal and annual representativeness of ionic aerosol proxies (among others, calcium, sodium, ammonium and nitrate in various firn cores in the vicinity of the NEEM drill site in northwest Greenland have been assessed. Seasonal representativeness is very high as one core explains more than 60% of the variability within the area. The inter-annual representativeness, however, can be substantially lower (depending on the species making replicate coring indispensable to derive the atmospheric variability of aerosol species. A single core at the NEEM site records only 30% of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in some species, while five replicate cores are already needed to cover approximately 70% of the inter-annual atmospheric variability in all species. The spatial representativeness is very high within 60 cm, rapidly decorrelates within 10 m but does not diminish further within 3 km. We attribute this to wind reworking of the snow pack leading to sastrugi formation. Due to the high resolution and seasonal representativeness of the records we can derive accurate seasonalities of the measured species for modern (AD 1990–2010 times as well as for pre-industrial (AD 1623–1750 times. Sodium and calcium show similar seasonality (peaking in February and March respectively for modern and pre-industrial times, whereas ammonium and nitrate are influenced by anthropogenic activities. Nitrate and ammonium both peak in May during modern times, whereas during pre-industrial times ammonium peaked during July–August and nitrate during June–July.

  5. Temporal and vertical variability in optical properties of New England shelf waters during late summer and spring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosik, Heidi M.; Green, Rebecca E.; Pegau, W. Scott; Roesler, Collin S.

    2001-05-01

    Relationships between optical and physical properties were examined on the basis of intensive sampling at a site on the New England continental shelf during late summer 1996 and spring 1997. During both seasons, particles were found to be the primary source of temporal and vertical variability in optical properties since light absorption by dissolved material, though significant in magnitude, was relatively constant. Within the particle pool, changes in phytoplankton were responsible for much of the observed optical variability. Physical processes associated with characteristic seasonal patterns in stratification and mixing contributed to optical variability mostly through effects on phytoplankton. An exception to this generalization occurred during summer as the passage of a hurricane led to a breakdown in stratification and substantial resuspension of nonphytoplankton particulate material. Prior to the hurricane, conditions in summer were highly stratified with subsurface maxima in absorption and scattering coefficients. In spring, stratification was much weaker but increased over the sampling period, and a modest phytoplankton bloom caused surface layer maxima in absorption and scattering coefficients. These seasonal differences in the vertical distribution of inherent optical properties were evident in surface reflectance spectra, which were elevated and shifted toward blue wavelengths in the summer. Some seasonal differences in optical properties, including reflectance spectra, suggest that a significant shift toward a smaller particle size distribution occurred in summer. Shorter timescale optical variability was consistent with a variety of influences including episodic events such as the hurricane, physical processes associated with shelfbreak frontal dynamics, biological processes such as phytoplankton growth, and horizontal patchiness combined with water mass advection.

  6. Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, Lester; Orr, James C.

    2018-01-01

    How ocean acidification will affect marine organisms depends on changes in both the long-term mean and the short-term temporal variability of carbonate chemistry1-8. Although the decadal-to-centennial response to atmospheric CO2 and climate change is constrained by observations and models1, 9, little is known about corresponding changes in seasonality10-12, particularly for pH. Here we assess the latter by analysing nine earth system models (ESMs) forced with a business-as-usual emissions scenario13. During the twenty-first century, the seasonal cycle of surface-ocean pH was attenuated by 16 ± 7%, on average, whereas that for hydrogen ion concentration [H+] was amplified by 81 ± 16%. Simultaneously, the seasonal amplitude of the aragonite saturation state (Ωarag) was attenuated except in the subtropics, where it was amplified. These contrasting changes derive from regionally varying sensitivities of these variables to atmospheric CO2 and climate change and to diverging trends in seasonal extremes in the primary controlling variables (temperature, dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity). Projected seasonality changes will tend to exacerbate the impacts of increasing [H+] on marine organisms during the summer and ameliorate the impacts during the winter, although the opposite holds in the high latitudes. Similarly, over most of the ocean, impacts from declining Ωarag are likely to be intensified during the summer and dampened during the winter.

  7. Significance of the impact of motion compensation on the variability of PET image features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carles, M.; Bach, T.; Torres-Espallardo, I.; Baltas, D.; Nestle, U.; Martí-Bonmatí, L.

    2018-03-01

    In lung cancer, quantification by positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) imaging presents challenges due to respiratory movement. Our primary aim was to study the impact of motion compensation implied by retrospectively gated (4D)-PET/CT on the variability of PET quantitative parameters. Its significance was evaluated by comparison with the variability due to (i) the voxel size in image reconstruction and (ii) the voxel size in image post-resampling. The method employed for feature extraction was chosen based on the analysis of (i) the effect of discretization of the standardized uptake value (SUV) on complementarity between texture features (TF) and conventional indices, (ii) the impact of the segmentation method on the variability of image features, and (iii) the variability of image features across the time-frame of 4D-PET. Thirty-one PET-features were involved. Three SUV discretization methods were applied: a constant width (SUV resolution) of the resampling bin (method RW), a constant number of bins (method RN) and RN on the image obtained after histogram equalization (method EqRN). The segmentation approaches evaluated were 40% of SUVmax and the contrast oriented algorithm (COA). Parameters derived from 4D-PET images were compared with values derived from the PET image obtained for (i) the static protocol used in our clinical routine (3D) and (ii) the 3D image post-resampled to the voxel size of the 4D image and PET image derived after modifying the reconstruction of the 3D image to comprise the voxel size of the 4D image. Results showed that TF complementarity with conventional indices was sensitive to the SUV discretization method. In the comparison of COA and 40% contours, despite the values not being interchangeable, all image features showed strong linear correlations (r  >  0.91, p\\ll 0.001 ). Across the time-frames of 4D-PET, all image features followed a normal distribution in most patients. For our patient cohort, the

  8. Meteorological Influences on the Seasonality of Lyme Disease in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M.; Eisen, Rebecca J.; Monaghan, Andrew; Mead, Paul

    2014-01-01

    Lyme disease (Borrelia burgdorferi infection) is the most common vector-transmitted disease in the United States. The majority of human Lyme disease (LD) cases occur in the summer months, but the timing of the peak occurrence varies geographically and from year to year. We calculated the beginning, peak, end, and duration of the main LD season in 12 highly endemic states from 1992 to 2007 and then examined the association between the timing of these seasonal variables and several meteorological variables. An earlier beginning to the LD season was positively associated with higher cumulative growing degree days through Week 20, lower cumulative precipitation, a lower saturation deficit, and proximity to the Atlantic coast. The timing of the peak and duration of the LD season were also associated with cumulative growing degree days, saturation deficit, and cumulative precipitation, but no meteorological predictors adequately explained the timing of the end of the LD season. PMID:24470565

  9. Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Kleeman, Richard; Tang, Youmin

    2004-11-01

    Variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal-to-interannual time-scales leads to changes in seasonal weather statistics and seasonal climate anomalies. Relative entropy, an information theory measure of utility, is used to quantify the impact of SST variations on seasonal precipitation compared to natural variability. An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations is used to estimate this quantity in three regions where tropical SST has a large impact on precipitation: South Florida, the Nordeste of Brazil and Kenya. We find the yearly variation of relative entropy is strongly correlated with shifts in ensemble mean precipitation and weakly correlated with ensemble variance. Relative entropy is also found to be related to measures of the ability of the GCM to reproduce observations.

  10. Seasonally-resolved trace element concentrations in stalagmites from a shallow cave in New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sekhon, N.; Banner, J.; Miller, N. R.; Carlson, P. E.; Breecker, D.

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution (sub-annual/seasonal) paleoclimate records extending beyond the instrumental period are required to test climate models and better understand how climate warming/cooling and wetting/drying are manifested seasonally. This is particularly the case for areas such as the southwest United States where precipitation and temperature seasonality dictate the regional climate. Study of a 20thcentury stalagmite (Carlson et al., in prep) documented (1) seasonal variation in trace element compositions of a stalagmite from a shallow, well-ventilated cave and (2) demonstrated the seasonal variation in stalagmite Mg to be in agreement with predicted temperature-dependent fractionation between water and calcite. The seasonal nature of variability was constrained by monitoring the cave on a monthly basis (Casteel and Banner, 2015; Carlson et al., in prep). Here we expand on using stalagmites from shallow, well-ventilated caves as archives of seasonally-resolved climate recorders by studying trace element variations in two coeval modern stalagmites (SBFC-1 and SBFC-2) cored from Sitting Bull Falls, southern New Mexico. Seasonal cycles will be confirmed by analyzing Mg, Ba, and Sr in in-situ calcite precipitated on artificial substrates as available (July, Sept., and Nov. 2017). The chronology is constrained by semi-automated peak counting and 14C bomb-peak. In addition, principal component analyses of trace element data identify two primary underlying modes of trace element variability for soil-derived elements (Cu, Zn, and Fe) and bedrock-derived elements (Mg, Sr, and Ba). We hypothesize that the soil-derived elements are transported by seasonal infiltration of organic colloids and the bedrock-derived elements are ­­controlled by variability in cave air temperature, drip water, and calcite growth rate. The two modes of variability will be calibrated against instrumental data over the 20th century. When complete, these new seasonally resolved proxy records will

  11. Amazon forest structure generates diurnal and seasonal variability in light utilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Douglas C. Morton; Jeremy Rubio; Bruce D. Cook; Jean-Philippe Gastellu-Etchegorry; Marcos Longo; Hyeungu Choi; Maria Hunter; Michael Keller

    2016-01-01

    The complex three-dimensional (3-D) structure of tropical forests generates a diversity of light environments for canopy and understory trees. Understanding diurnal and seasonal changes in light availability is critical for interpreting measurements of net ecosystem exchange and improving ecosystem models. Here, we used the Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART...

  12. Cost of living in free-ranging degus (Octodon degus) : seasonal dynamics of energy expenditure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bozinovic, F; Bacigalupe, LD; Vasquez, RA; Visser, GH; Veloso, C; Kenagy, GJ

    Animals process and allocate energy at different seasons at variable rates, depending on their breeding season and changes in environmental conditions and resulting physiological demands. Overall total energy expenditure, in turn, should either increase in some seasons due to special added demands

  13. Effects of annual and interannual environmental variability on soil fungi associated with an old-growth, temperate hardwood forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, David J

    2015-06-01

    Seasonal and interannual variability in temperature, precipitation and chemical resources may regulate fungal community structure in forests but the effect of such variability is still poorly understood. In this study, I examined changes in fungal communities over two years and how these changes were correlated to natural variation in soil conditions. Soil cores were collected every month for three years from permanent plots established in an old-growth hardwood forest, and molecular methods were used to detect fungal species. Species richness and diversity were not consistent between years with richness and diversity significantly affected by season in one year but significantly affected by depth in the other year. These differences were associated with variation in late winter snow cover. Fungal communities significantly varied by plot location, season and depth and differences were consistent between years but fungal species within the community were not consistent in their seasonality or in their preference for certain soil depths. Some fungal species, however, were found to be consistently correlated with soil chemistry across sampled years. These results suggest that fungal community changes reflect the behavior of the individual species within the community pool and how those species respond to local resource availability. © FEMS 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  14. Effect of season on characteristics of pecorino cheese and ricotta of Pistoiese Appennine: first results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Giustini

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The “Pecorino pistoiese” is made from milk of Massese Sheep. The flocks are reared by grazing on natural pastures of Pistoiese Appennine. The farms product cheeses by milk without pasteurization. The handmade cheeses are characterized by a remarkable variability due to farm and to season. The aim of this work is to study the effect of season on characteristics of the pecorino e ricotta pistoiese with particular attention for the determination of the yield. One trial was run in each season (4 trials and in 3 farms. Every phases of the cheesemaking were controlled and milk, cheese and ricotta were weighed and analysed. The season showed some significant effects on the chemical composition of milk: lactose and SNF showed lower values in summer. The pecorino cheese showed 18.5% of fat and 24.7% of protein on average. In spring and in summer the yield in pecorino cheese (15.8% was significantly worse than in winter (19.3%. The ricotta cheese was fatter in summer (27.6% than in winter (17.5%. The yield of ricotta at 24 hours was 13.5% on average.

  15. SPATIAL AND SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF THALASSIA TESTUDINUM IN NUEVITAS BAY, CUBA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beatriz Martínez-Daranas

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available A study was carried out on biomass, shoot density and leaf production variability in three Thalassia testudinum meadows under different environmental characteristics in Nuevitas Bay, Cuba, in different seasons. The first site has muddy-sandy sediments and it is affected by bottom trawl fishing; the second has sandy sediments and it is affected by waste-water discharges, and the third has sandy-muddy sediments and no human impacts are present. Leaf, rhizome, and root biomass, daily production of leaves, density of short shoots, and length and width of leaves were estimated five times in a year. Seasonal variations were observed, with higher values of leaf and rhizome biomass, short shoot density, and daily production of leaves occurring in spring and summer. Spatial differences seem to be related to the environmental characteristics of each site: Leaf daily production, leaf biomass and leaf length were lower, and root biomass was higher in the site where sediments are impacted by fishing with bottom trawls; short shoot density and rhizome biomass were higher in the nonaffected site. Lower values of root biomass appeared where waste-water discharges occurred. Se realizó un estudio de la variación de la biomasa, la densidad de vástagos y la producción de hojas en tres praderas de Thalassia testudinum con diferentes características ambientales en la bahía de Nuevitas, Cuba, en diferentes épocas del año. El primer sitio tiene sedimentos fango-arenosos y está afectado por pesquería de arrastre; en el segundo, el sedimento es arenoso y se vierten aguas residuales en su cercanía, y el tercero, con sedimentos arenoso-fangosos, no está afectado por impactos antropogénicos. La biomasa de hojas, rizomas y raíces, la producción diaria de hojas, la densidad de vástagos, y el largo y ancho de las hojas fueron estimadas cinco veces en un año. Se observaron variaciones estacionales, con los valores más altos de biomasa de hojas y de rizomas

  16. Response of Amazon Fires to the 2015/2016 El Niño and Evaluation of a Seasonal Fire Season Severity Forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randerson, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Recent work has established that year-to-year variability in drought and fire within the Amazon responds to a dual forcing from ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Pacific and North Atlantic. Teleconnections between the Pacific and the Amazon are strongest between October and March, when El Niño contributes to below-average precipitation during the wet season. A reduced build-up of soil moisture during the wet season, in turn, may limit water availability and transpiration in tropical forests during the following dry season, lowering surface humidity, drying fuels, and allowing fires to spread more easily through the understory. The delayed influence of soil moisture through this land - atmosphere coupling provides a means to predict fire season severity 3-6 months before the onset of the dry season. With the aim of creating new opportunities for forest conservation, we have developed an experimental seasonal fire forecasting system for the Amazon. The 2016 fire season severity forecast, released in June by UCI and NASA, predicts unusually high risk across eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, and Brazil. Several surface and satellite data streams confirm that El Niño teleconnections had a significant impact on wet season hydrology within the Amazon. Rainfall observations from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre provided evidence that cumulative precipitation deficits during August-April were 1 to 2 standard deviations below the long-term mean for most of the basin. These observations were corroborated by strong negative terrestrial water storage anomalies measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, and by fluorescence and vegetation index observations from other sensors that indicated elevated canopy stress. By August 3rd, satellite observations showed above average fire activity in most, but not all, forecast regions. Using additional satellite observations that become available later this year, we plan to describe the full spatial and

  17. Skilful seasonal forecasts of streamflow over Europe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnal, Louise; Cloke, Hannah L.; Stephens, Elisabeth; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Prudhomme, Christel; Neumann, Jessica; Krzeminski, Blazej; Pappenberger, Florian

    2018-04-01

    This paper considers whether there is any added value in using seasonal climate forecasts instead of historical meteorological observations for forecasting streamflow on seasonal timescales over Europe. A Europe-wide analysis of the skill of the newly operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal streamflow forecasts (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with the ECMWF System 4 seasonal climate forecasts), benchmarked against the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) forecasting approach (produced by forcing the Lisflood model with historical meteorological observations), is undertaken. The results suggest that, on average, the System 4 seasonal climate forecasts improve the streamflow predictability over historical meteorological observations for the first month of lead time only (in terms of hindcast accuracy, sharpness and overall performance). However, the predictability varies in space and time and is greater in winter and autumn. Parts of Europe additionally exhibit a longer predictability, up to 7 months of lead time, for certain months within a season. In terms of hindcast reliability, the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcasts are on average less skilful than the ESP for all lead times. The results also highlight the potential usefulness of the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts for decision-making (measured in terms of the hindcast discrimination for the lower and upper terciles of the simulated streamflow). Although the ESP is the most potentially useful forecasting approach in Europe, the EFAS seasonal streamflow forecasts appear more potentially useful than the ESP in some regions and for certain seasons, especially in winter for almost 40 % of Europe. Patterns in the EFAS seasonal streamflow hindcast skill are however not mirrored in the System 4 seasonal climate hindcasts, hinting at the need for a better understanding of the link between hydrological and meteorological variables on seasonal timescales, with the aim of improving climate

  18. Understanding the significance variables for fabrication of fish gelatin nanoparticles by Plackett-Burman design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Subara, Deni; Jaswir, Irwandi; Alkhatib, Maan Fahmi Rashid; Noorbatcha, Ibrahim Ali

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this experiment is to screen and to understand the process variables on the fabrication of fish gelatin nanoparticles by using quality-design approach. The most influencing process variables were screened by using Plackett-Burman design. Mean particles size, size distribution, and zeta potential were found in the range 240±9.76 nm, 0.3, and -9 mV, respectively. Statistical results explained that concentration of acetone, pH of solution during precipitation step and volume of cross linker had a most significant effect on particles size of fish gelatin nanoparticles. It was found that, time and chemical consuming is lower than previous research. This study revealed the potential of quality-by design in understanding the effects of process variables on the fish gelatin nanoparticles production.

  19. Relationship between physical fitness and game-related statistics in elite professional basketball players: Regular season vs. playoffs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João Henrique Gomes

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract AIMS This study aimed to verify th erelation ship between of anthropometric and physical performance variables with game-related statistics in professional elite basketball players during a competition. METHODS Eleven male basketball players were evaluated during 10 weeks in two distinct moments (regular season and playoffs. Overall, 11 variables of physical fitness and 13 variables of game-related statistics were analysed. RESULTS The following significant Pearson’scorrelations were found in regular season: percentage of fat mass with assists (r = -0.62 and steals (r = -0.63; height (r = 0.68, lean mass (r = 0.64, and maximum strength (r = 0.67 with blocks; squat jump with steals (r = 0.63; and time in the T-test with success ful two-point field-goals (r = -0.65, success ful free-throws (r = -0.61, and steals (r = -0.62. However, in playoffs, only stature and lean mass maintained these correlations (p ≤ 0.05. CONCLUSIONS The anthropometric and physical characteristics of the players showed few correlations with the game-related statistics in regular season, and these correlations are even lower in the playoff games of a professional elite Champion ship, wherefore, not being good predictors of technical performance.

  20. Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part II: intraseasonal variability and African easterly waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Benjamin; Douville, Hervé

    2011-10-01

    A near-global grid-point nudging of the Arpege-Climat atmospheric General Circulation Model towards ECMWF reanalyses is used to diagnose the regional versus remote origin of the summer model biases and variability over West Africa. First part of this study revealed a limited impact on the monsoon climatology compared to a control experiment without nudging, but a significant improvement of interannual variability, although the amplitude of the seasonal anomalies remained underestimated. Focus is given here on intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall and dynamics. The reproducible part of these signals is investigated through 30-member ensemble experiments computed for the 1994 rainy season, a year abnormally wet over the Sahel but representative of the model systematic biases. In the control experiment, Arpege-Climat simulates too few rainy days that are associated with too low rainfall amounts over the central and western Sahel, in line with the seasonal dry biases. Nudging the model outside Africa tends to slightly increase the number of rainy days over the Sahel, but has little effect on associated rainfall amounts. However, results do indicate that a significant part of the monsoon intraseasonal variability simulated by Arpege-Climat is controlled by lateral boundary conditions. Parts of the wet/dry spells over the Sahel occur in phase in the 30 members of the nudging experiment, and are therefore embedded in larger-scale variability patterns. Inter-member spread is however not constant across the selected summer season. It is partly controlled by African Easterly Waves, which show dissimilar amplitude from one member to another, but a coherent phasing in all members. A lowpass filtering of the nudging fields suggests that low frequency variations in the lateral boundary conditions can lead to eastward extensions of the African Easterly Jet, creating a favorable environment for easterly waves, while high frequency perturbations seem to control their

  1. Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part II: intraseasonal variability and African easterly waves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pohl, Benjamin [CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, CNRS, Toulouse (France); Centre de Recherches de Climatologie, CNRS, Universite de Bourgogne, Dijon (France); Douville, Herve [CNRM-GAME, Meteo-France, CNRS, Toulouse (France)

    2011-10-15

    A near-global grid-point nudging of the Arpege-Climat atmospheric General Circulation Model towards ECMWF reanalyses is used to diagnose the regional versus remote origin of the summer model biases and variability over West Africa. First part of this study revealed a limited impact on the monsoon climatology compared to a control experiment without nudging, but a significant improvement of interannual variability, although the amplitude of the seasonal anomalies remained underestimated. Focus is given here on intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall and dynamics. The reproducible part of these signals is investigated through 30-member ensemble experiments computed for the 1994 rainy season, a year abnormally wet over the Sahel but representative of the model systematic biases. In the control experiment, Arpege-Climat simulates too few rainy days that are associated with too low rainfall amounts over the central and western Sahel, in line with the seasonal dry biases. Nudging the model outside Africa tends to slightly increase the number of rainy days over the Sahel, but has little effect on associated rainfall amounts. However, results do indicate that a significant part of the monsoon intraseasonal variability simulated by Arpege-Climat is controlled by lateral boundary conditions. Parts of the wet/dry spells over the Sahel occur in phase in the 30 members of the nudging experiment, and are therefore embedded in larger-scale variability patterns. Inter-member spread is however not constant across the selected summer season. It is partly controlled by African Easterly Waves, which show dissimilar amplitude from one member to another, but a coherent phasing in all members. A lowpass filtering of the nudging fields suggests that low frequency variations in the lateral boundary conditions can lead to eastward extensions of the African Easterly Jet, creating a favorable environment for easterly waves, while high frequency perturbations seem to control their

  2. Characterization of the cytosolic distribution of priority pollutant metals and metalloids in the digestive gland cytosol of marine mussels: seasonal and spatial variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strižak, Zeljka; Ivanković, Dušica; Pröfrock, Daniel; Helmholz, Heike; Cindrić, Ana-Marija; Erk, Marijana; Prange, Andreas

    2014-02-01

    Cytosolic profiles of several priority pollutant metals (Cu, Cd, Zn, Pb) and metalloid As were analyzed in the digestive gland of the mussel (Mytilus galloprovincialis) sampled at locations with different environmental pollution levels along the Croatian coast in the spring and summer season. Size-exclusion chromatography (SEC) connected to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) was used to determine selected elements bound to cytosolic biomolecules separated based on their molecular size. Copper, cadmium and zinc eluted mostly associated with high molecular weight (HMW) and medium molecular weight (MMW) biomolecules, but with a more prominent elution in the MMW peak at polluted locations which were probably associated with the 20 kDa metallothionein (MT). Elution of all three metals within this peak was also strongly correlated with cytosolic Cd as strong inducer of MT. Lead mostly eluted in HMW biomolecule range, but in elevated cytosolic Pb concentrations, significant amount eluted in low molecular weight (LMW) biomolecules. Arsenic, on the other hand eluted almost completely in LMW range, but we could not distinguish specific molecular weight biomolecules which would be predominant in detoxification mechanism. Seasonal variability in element abundance within specific peaks was present, although not in the same extent, for all elements and locations, especially for As. The results confirm the suitability of the distribution of selected metals/metalloids among different cytosolic ligands as potential indicator for metal exposure. Obtained findings can also serve as guidelines for further separation and characterization of specific cytosolic metal-binding biomolecules. © 2013.

  3. Longitudinal intra- and inter-individual variability in young swimmers' performance and determinant competition factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Estrela Morais

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this study was to follow-up the intra- and inter-individual variability of young swimmers' performance and determinant factors over two competitive seasons. Thirty young swimmers (14 boys: 12.33±0.65 years-old; 16 girls: 11.15±0.55 years-old were followed-up throughout two consecutive seasons (seven evaluation moments. Performance (100m freestyle, anthropometric, kinematic, hydrodynamic and efficiency features were evaluated. A gender and skill-level effect was observed. Boys improved in a higher amount (% comparing to girls. Overall, swimmers in skill-level 2 (both genders presented a higher intra-individual variability. Performance and anthropometrics showed a significant inter-individual variability in most moments, but hydrodynamics, kinematics and efficiency did not. Within each skill-level hydrodynamics, kinematics and efficiency were the variables that showed a high inter-individual variability. As a gender and skill-level effect was noticed in an age-group of young swimmers, coaches and practitioners should put the focus in specific and customized training plans for each skill-level of swimmers.

  4. Interaction between Tropical Atlantic Variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saravanan, R.; Chang, Ping

    2000-07-01

    The interaction between tropical Atlantic variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated using three ensembles of atmospheric general circulation model integrations. The integrations are forced by specifying observed sea surface temperature (SST) variability over a forcing domain. The forcing domain is the global ocean for the first ensemble, limited to the tropical ocean for the second ensemble, and further limited to the tropical Atlantic region for the third ensemble. The ensemble integrations show that extratropical SST anomalies have little impact on tropical variability, but the effect of ENSO is pervasive in the Tropics. Consistent with previous studies, the most significant influence of ENSO is found during the boreal spring season and is associated with an anomalous Walker circulation. Two important aspects of ENSO's influence on tropical Atlantic variability are noted. First, the ENSO signal contributes significantly to the `dipole' correlation structure between tropical Atlantic SST and rainfall in the Nordeste Brazil region. In the absence of the ENSO signal, the correlations are dominated by SST variability in the southern tropical Atlantic, resulting in less of a dipole structure. Second, the remote influence of ENSO also contributes to positive correlations between SST anomalies and downward surface heat flux in the tropical Atlantic during the boreal spring season. However, even when ENSO forcing is absent, the model integrations provide evidence for a positive surface heat flux feedback in the deep Tropics, which is analyzed in a companion study by Chang et al. The analysis of model simulations shows that interannual atmospheric variability in the tropical Pacific-Atlantic system is dominated by the interaction between two distinct sources of tropical heating: (i) an equatorial heat source in the eastern Pacific associated with ENSO and (ii) an off-equatorial heat source associated with SST anomalies near the Caribbean

  5. An integrated, indicator framework for assessing large-scale variations and change in seasonal timing and phenology (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Betancourt, J. L.; Weltzin, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    As part of an effort to develop an Indicator System for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), the Seasonality and Phenology Indicators Technical Team (SPITT) proposed an integrated, continental-scale framework for understanding and tracking seasonal timing in physical and biological systems. The framework shares several metrics with the EPA's National Climate Change Indicators. The SPITT framework includes a comprehensive suite of national indicators to track conditions, anticipate vulnerabilities, and facilitate intervention or adaptation to the extent possible. Observed, modeled, and forecasted seasonal timing metrics can inform a wide spectrum of decisions on federal, state, and private lands in the U.S., and will be pivotal for international efforts to mitigation and adaptation. Humans use calendars both to understand the natural world and to plan their lives. Although the seasons are familiar concepts, we lack a comprehensive understanding of how variability arises in the timing of seasonal transitions in the atmosphere, and how variability and change translate and propagate through hydrological, ecological and human systems. For example, the contributions of greenhouse warming and natural variability to secular trends in seasonal timing are difficult to disentangle, including earlier spring transitions from winter (strong westerlies) to summer (weak easterlies) patterns of atmospheric circulation; shifts in annual phasing of daily temperature means and extremes; advanced timing of snow and ice melt and soil thaw at higher latitudes and elevations; and earlier start and longer duration of the growing and fire seasons. The SPITT framework aims to relate spatiotemporal variability in surface climate to (1) large-scale modes of natural climate variability and greenhouse gas-driven climatic change, and (2) spatiotemporal variability in hydrological, ecological and human responses and impacts. The hierarchical framework relies on ground and satellite observations

  6. Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

    2018-04-01

    Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

  7. Evapotranspiration seasonality across the Amazon Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiji Maeda, Eduardo; Ma, Xuanlong; Wagner, Fabien Hubert; Kim, Hyungjun; Oki, Taikan; Eamus, Derek; Huete, Alfredo

    2017-06-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) of Amazon forests is a main driver of regional climate patterns and an important indicator of ecosystem functioning. Despite its importance, the seasonal variability of ET over Amazon forests, and its relationship with environmental drivers, is still poorly understood. In this study, we carry out a water balance approach to analyse seasonal patterns in ET and their relationships with water and energy drivers over five sub-basins across the Amazon Basin. We used in situ measurements of river discharge, and remotely sensed estimates of terrestrial water storage, rainfall, and solar radiation. We show that the characteristics of ET seasonality in all sub-basins differ in timing and magnitude. The highest mean annual ET was found in the northern Rio Negro basin (˜ 1497 mm year-1) and the lowest values in the Solimões River basin (˜ 986 mm year-1). For the first time in a basin-scale study, using observational data, we show that factors limiting ET vary across climatic gradients in the Amazon, confirming local-scale eddy covariance studies. Both annual mean and seasonality in ET are driven by a combination of energy and water availability, as neither rainfall nor radiation alone could explain patterns in ET. In southern basins, despite seasonal rainfall deficits, deep root water uptake allows increasing rates of ET during the dry season, when radiation is usually higher than in the wet season. We demonstrate contrasting ET seasonality with satellite greenness across Amazon forests, with strong asynchronous relationships in ever-wet watersheds, and positive correlations observed in seasonally dry watersheds. Finally, we compared our results with estimates obtained by two ET models, and we conclude that neither of the two tested models could provide a consistent representation of ET seasonal patterns across the Amazon.

  8. Long-Term Changes in the Extreme Significant Wave Heights on the Western North Pacific: Impacts of Tropical Cyclone Activity and ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Sinil; Oh, Jaiho

    2018-02-01

    Seasonal extreme wave statistics were reproduced by using the 25-km-grid global wave model of WAVEWATCH-III. The results showed that the simulated wave dataset for the present climate (1979-2009) was similar to Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) wave data. Statistics such as the root mean squared error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) basin were 0.5 m and 0.69 over the analysis domain. The largest trends and standard deviation were around the southern coast of Japan and western edge of the WNP. Linear regression analysis was employed to identify the relationship between the leading principal components (PCs) of significant wave heights (SWHs) in the peak season of July to September and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the equatorial Pacific. The results indicated that the inter-annual variability of SWH can be associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the peak season. The CC between the first PC of the SWH and anomalies in the Nino 3.4 SST index was also significant at a 99% confidence level. Significant variations in the SWH are affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) caused by increased SST anomalies. The genesis and development of simulated TCs can be important to the variation in SWHs for the WNP in the peak season. Therefore, we can project the variability of SWHs through TC activity based on changes in SST conditions for the equatorial Pacific in the future.

  9. Seasonal and local differences in leaf litter flammability of six Mediterranean tree species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauf, Zorica; Fangmeier, Andreas; Rosavec, Roman; Španjol, Željko

    2015-03-01

    One of the suggested management options for reducing fire danger is the selection of less flammable plant species. Nevertheless, vegetation flammability is both complex and dynamic, making identification of such species challenging. While large efforts have been made to connect plant traits to fire behavior, seasonal changes and within species variability of traits are often neglected. Currently, even the most sophisticated fire danger systems presume that intrinsic characteristics of leaf litter stay unchanged, and plant species flammability lists are often transferred from one area to another. In order to assess if these practices can be improved, we performed a study examining the relationship between morphological characteristics and flammability parameters of leaf litter, thereby taking into account seasonal and local variability. Litter from six Mediterranean tree species was sampled throughout the fire season from three different locations along a climate gradient. Samples were subjected to flammability testing involving an epiradiator operated at 400 °C surface temperature with 3 g sample weight. Specific leaf area, fuel moisture content, average area, and average mass of a single particle had significant influences on flammability parameters. Effects of sampling time and location were significant as well. Due to the standardized testing conditions, these effects could be attributed to changes in intrinsic characteristics of the material. As the aforementioned effects were inconsistent and species specific, these results may potentially limit the generalization of species flammability rankings. Further research is necessary in order to evaluate the importance of our findings for fire danger modeling.

  10. Hydrologic Variability of the Cosumnes River Floodplain

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    Eric Booth

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Natural floodplain ecosystems are adapted to highly variable hydrologic regimes, which include periodic droughts, infrequent large floods, and relatively frequent periods of inundation. To more effectively manage water resources and maintain ecosystem services provided by floodplains – and associated aquatic, riparian, and wetland habitats – requires an understanding of seasonal and inter-annual hydrologic variability of floodplains. The Cosumnes River, the largest river on the west-slope Sierra Nevada mountains without a major dam, provides a pertinent test case to develop a systematic classification of hydrologic variability. By examining the dynamics of its relatively natural flow regime, and a 98-year streamflow record (1908 – 2005, we identified 12 potential flood types. We identified four duration thresholds, defined as short (S, medium (M, long (L, and very long (V. We then intersected the flood duration division by three magnitude classes, defined as small-medium (1, large (2, and very large (3. Of the 12 possible flood types created by this classification matrix, the Cosumnes River streamflow record populated 10 such classes. To assess the robustness of our classification, we employed discriminant analysis to test class fidelity based on independent measures of flood capability, such as start date. Lastly, we used hierarchical divisive clustering to classify water years by flood type composition resulting in 8 water year types. The results of this work highlight the significant seasonal and inter-annual variability in natural flood regimes in Central Valley rivers. The construction of water impoundment and flood control structures has significantly altered all aspects of the flood pulse. Restoring floodplain ecosystem services will require re-establishing key elements of these historic flood regimes in order to achieve regional restoration goals and objectives.

  11. ANAEROBIC CAPACITY OF AMATEUR MOUNTAIN BIKERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMPETITION SEASON

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    Ryszard Jarosław Zarzeczny

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Sustained aerobic exercise not only affects the rate of force development but also decreases peak power development. The aim of this study was to investigate whether anaerobic power of amateur mountain bikers changes during the first half of the competition season. Eight trained cyclists (mean ± SE: age: 22.0 ±0.5 years; height: 174.6 ± 0.9 cm; weight: 70.7 ± 2.6 kg were subjected to an ergocycle incremental exercise test and to the Wingate test on two occasions: before, and in the middle of the season. After the incremental exercise test the excess post-exercise oxygen consumption was measured during 5-min recovery. Blood lactate concentration was measured in the 4th min after the Wingate test. Maximum oxygen uptake increased from 60.0 ± 1.5 ml · min-1 · kg-1 at the beginning of the season to 65.2 ± 1.4 ml · min-1 · kg-1 (P<0.05 in the season. Neither of the mechanical variables of the Wingate test nor excess post-exercise oxygen consumption values were significantly different in these two measurements. However, blood lactate concentration was significantly higher (P<0.001 in season (11.0 ± 0.5 mM than before the season (8.6 ± 0.4 mM. It is concluded that: 1 despite the increase of cyclists’ maximum oxygen uptake during the competition season their anaerobic power did not change; 2 blood lactate concentration measured at the 4th min after the Wingate test does not properly reflect training-induced changes in energy metabolism.

  12. Spatio-Temporal Changes in Vegetation Activity and Its Driving Factors during the Growing Season in China from 1982 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Qu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Using National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration/Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA/AVHRR and Climatic Research Unit (CRU climate datasets, we analyzed interannual trends in the growing-season Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI in China from 1982 to 2011, as well as the effects of climatic variables and human activities on vegetation variation. Growing-season (period between the onset and end of plant growth NDVI significantly increased (p < 0.01 on a national scale and showed positive trends in 52.76% of the study area. A multiple regression model was used to investigate the response of vegetation to climatic factors during recent and previous time intervals. The interactions between growing-season NDVI and climatic variables were more complex than expected, and a lag existed between climatic factors and their effects on NDVI. The regression residuals were used to show that over 6% of the study area experienced significantly human-induced vegetation variations (p < 0.05. These regions were mostly located in densely populated, reclaimed agriculture, afforestation, and conservation areas. Similar conclusions were drawn based on land-use change over the study period.

  13. Modelling tide-driven currents and residual eddies in the Gulf of Kachchh and their seasonal variability: A marine environmental planning perspective

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Babu, M.T.; Vethamony, P.; Desa, E.

    showed very good agreement with the measured currents. The study suggests that though the currents of GoK are predominantly tide-driven, they respond significantly to the seasonally changing wind system. Strong southwesterly winds enhance the flood tidal...

  14. Seasonal variability in distribution and fluxes of methane in the Arabian Sea

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Patra, P.K.; Lal, S.; Venkataramani, S.; Gauns, M.; Sarma, V.V.S.S.

    Methane, a biogeochemically important gas in Earth's atmosphere was measured in the water column and air in the Arabian Sea in different seasons, viz., northeast monsoon, intermonsoon, and southwest monsoon, as part of the Joint Global Ocean Flux...

  15. Trends and Variability of the Outdoor Skating Season in Canada during 1951-2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damyanov, Nikolay Nikolaev

    Climate change affects a range of human activities, including one of Canada's prime sources of entertainment: ice skating. Whether done recreationally or as hockey, its outdoor component is heavily dependent on weather and climate. Based on information obtained from public works officials from various Canadian cities, I have established a meteorological criterion for the initiation of an outdoor skating season (OSS) as the last day in a sequence of the first three consecutive fall/winter days with a maximum temperature below -5 °C. In addition, I derive a proxy of the OSS length, defined as the total number of days with a maximum temperature below -5 °C after the OSS start date and before the start of March. Using these filters, I have extracted the start dates and the lengths of the OSS for each year during the fifty-five year period 1951-2005 from a comprehensive daily temperature dataset (Vincent et al., 2002). For each station, I created time series of both the OSS start dates and OSS lengths, and calculated the magnitude, sign and statistical significance of the slopes of the best-fit lines to each time series. In order to establish a relationship of the OSS with large-scale climate patterns, I grouped stations into six climatic regions. Depending on location, I then tested each region for correlation with the Pacific North-American teleconnection pattern (PNA) or the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), using a composite analysis method. Lastly, I removed the signal due to these climate fluctuations from the OSS start date and length trends in order to determine how much of the variability was caused by these interannual climate oscillations. The results of the study indicate that most stations in British Columbia and southwest Alberta, as well as these in the southern Ontario/Quebc region have witnessed a progressively later onset of the OSS over time. The Prairies, northwest Canada, and some Maritime locales show the opposite trend, although the magnitudes

  16. Understanding the Seasonal Greenness Trends and Controls in South Asia Using Satellite Based Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarmah, S.; Jia, G.; Zhang, A.; Singha, M.

    2017-12-01

    South Asia (SA) is one of the most remarkable regions in changing vegetation greenness along with its major expansion of agricultural activity, especially irrigated farming. However, SA is predicted to be a vulnerable agricultural regions to future climate changes. The influence of monsoon climate on the seasonal trends and anomalies of vegetation greenness are not well understood in the region which can provide valuable information about climate-ecosystem interaction. This study analyzed the spatio-temporal patterns of seasonal vegetation trends and variability using satellite vegetation indices (VI) including AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (1982-2013) and MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) (2000-2013) in summer monsoon (SM) (June-Sept) and winter monsoon (WM) (Dec-Apr) seasons among irrigated cropland (IC), rainfed cropland (RC) and natural vegetation (NV). Seasonal VI variations with climatic factors (precipitation and temperature) and LULC changes have been investigated to identify the forcings behind the vegetation trends and variability. We found that major greening occurred in the last three decades due to the increase in IC productivity noticeably in WM, however, recent (2000-2013) greening trends were lower than the previous decades (1982-1999) in both the IC and RC indicating the stresses on them. The browning trends, mainly concentrated in NV areas were prominent during WM and rigorous since 2000, confirmed from the moderate resolution EVI and LULC datasets. Winter time maximal temperature had been increasing tremendously whereas precipitation trend was not significant over SA. Both the climate variability and LULC changes had integrated effects on the vegetation changes in NV areas specifically in hilly regions. However, LULC impact was intensified since 2000, mostly in north east India. This study also revealed a distinct seasonal variation in spatial distribution of correlation between VI's and climate anomalies over SA

  17. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamigaki, Taro; Chaw, Liling; Tan, Alvin G; Tamaki, Raita; Alday, Portia P; Javier, Jenaline B; Olveda, Remigio M; Oshitani, Hitoshi; Tallo, Veronica L

    2016-01-01

    The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined. We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model. At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas. Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their absolute values for

  18. Seasonality of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Viruses and the Effect of Climate Factors in Subtropical-Tropical Asia Using Influenza-Like Illness Surveillance Data, 2010 -2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taro Kamigaki

    Full Text Available The seasonality of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV is well known, and many analyses have been conducted in temperate countries; however, this is still not well understood in tropical countries. Previous studies suggest that climate factors are involved in the seasonality of these viruses. However, the extent of the effect of each climate variable is yet to be defined.We investigated the pattern of seasonality and the effect of climate variables on influenza and RSV at three sites of different latitudes: the Eastern Visayas region and Baguio City in the Philippines, and Okinawa Prefecture in Japan. Wavelet analysis and the dynamic linear regression model were applied. Climate variables used in the analysis included mean temperature, relative and specific humidity, precipitation, and number of rainy days. The Akaike Information Criterion estimated in each model was used to test the improvement of fit in comparison with the baseline model.At all three study sites, annual seasonal peaks were observed in influenza A and RSV; peaks were unclear for influenza B. Ranges of climate variables at the two Philippine sites were narrower and mean variables were significantly different among the three sites. Whereas all climate variables except the number of rainy days improved model fit to the local trend model, their contributions were modest. Mean temperature and specific humidity were positively associated with influenza and RSV at the Philippine sites and negatively associated with influenza A in Okinawa. Precipitation also improved model fit for influenza and RSV at both Philippine sites, except for the influenza A model in the Eastern Visayas.Annual seasonal peaks were observed for influenza A and RSV but were less clear for influenza B at all three study sites. Including additional data from subsequent more years would help to ascertain these findings. Annual amplitude and variation in climate variables are more important than their

  19. Technical Efficiency of Wet Season Melon Farming

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    Ananti Yekti

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Melon is one of high-value horticulture commodity which is cultivated widely in Kulon Progo regency. The nature of agricultural products is heavily dependent on the season, so it causes the prices of agricultural products always fluctuated every time. In wet season the price of agricultural products tends to be more expensive. Melon cultivation in wet season provide an opportunity to earn higher profits than in the dry season. The price of agricultural products tends to be more expensive in wet season, thus melon cultivation in wet season prospectively generate high profits. In order to achieve high profitability, melon farming has to be done efficiently. Objective of this study was to 1 determined the factors that influence melon production in wet season 2 measured technical efficiency of melon farming and 3 identified the factors that influanced technical efficiency. Data collected during April – June 2014. Location determined by multistage cluster sampling. 45 samples of farmers who cultivated melon during wet season obtained based on quota sampling technique. Technical efficiency was measured using Cobb-Douglas Stochastic Frontier. The result reveals that 1 land use, quantity of seed, K fertilizer contributed significantly increasing melon production, while N fertilizer decreased melon production significantly 2 technical efficiency indeces ranged from 0.40 to 0.99, with a mean of  0.77; 3 farmer’s experience gave significant influence to technical efficiency of melon farming in wet season.

  20. Non-Seasonal Variation of Airborne Aspergillus Spore Concentration in a Hospital Building

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    Michael Oberle

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Nosocomial fungal infections are gaining increased attention from infectiologists. An adequate investigation into the levels of airborne Aspergillus and other fungal spores in hospital settings, under normal conditions, is largely unknown. We monitored airborne spore contamination in a Swiss hospital building in order to establish a seasonally-dependent base-line level. Air was sampled using an impaction technique, twice weekly, at six different locations over one year. Specimens were seeded in duplicate on Sabouraud agar plates. Grown colonies were identified to genus levels. The airborne Aspergillus spore concentration was constantly low throughout the whole year, at a median level of 2 spores/m3 (inter-quartile range = IQR 1–4, and displayed no seasonal dependency. The median concentration of other fungal spores was higher and showed a distinct seasonal variability with the ambient temperature change during the different seasons: 82 spores/m3 (IQR 26–126 in summer and 9 spores/m3 (IQR 6–15 in winter. The spore concentration varied considerably between the six sampling sites in the building (10 to 26 spores/m3. This variability may explain the variability of study results in the literature.

  1. Impact of Eastern Caribbean Circulation Seasonality on two Reef Organisms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cherubin, L. M.; Paris, C. B.; Baums, I. B.; Idrisi, N.

    2008-05-01

    The variability of the Caribbean current is under the influence of the fresh water input from the Orinoco and Amazon rivers. Sea Surface Salinity maps of the eastern Caribbean show the seasonal extension of the riverine fresh water across the Caribbean basin, from August to December (wet season). The plume is divided into two main cores: one flows into the Caribbean Sea mostly through the Grenada Passage where it merges with the Caribbean Current while the other core is formed further north by advection of the river plume by the North Brazil Current rings. Due to the presence of fresh water the Caribbean Sea mesoscale activity is strongly increased during the wet season. Therefore, both coral reef ecosystems and coastal flows are under the scope of the large scale flow seasonality. The impact of the flow mesoscale seasonality on reef organisms is studied through two reef organisms: (1) Reef-building coral: Genetic analyzes show that populations of the Caribbean reef-building coral, Acropora palmata, have experienced little or no recent genetic exchange between the western and eastern Caribbean. Western Puerto Rico is identified as an area of mixing between the two subregions. Using a bio- physical coupled model accounting for larvae life history traits, we verify the plausibility of a present day oceanographic barrier caused by the Caribbean Current seasonal variability in the vicinity of Mona Passage. (2) Grouper: Several grouper species form spawning aggregations at the shelf edge of the US Virgin Islands starting at the end of the wet season in December. Using ADCP current measurements and numerical simulations, unusual large 'dispersion' pulses are shown to be associated with the presence of sub-mesoscale coherent features more likely to be formed during the wet season. Spawning occurring during the dry season (January to April) is mostly tide driven, suggesting a limited dispersal.

  2. Seasonal variability of heat flux divergence in the coastal waters of Visakhapatnam

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Rao, B.P.; Sadhuram, Y.

    Heat flux divergence (Qv) in the coastal waters of Visakhapatnam, Andhra, Pradesh, India during different seasons, was estimated for the period February 1980-January 1981. It is found that the water column (0-60 m) gains heat during winter...

  3. Processes driving sea ice variability in the Bering Sea in an eddying ocean/sea ice model: Mean seasonal cycle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Linghan; McClean, Julie L.; Miller, Arthur J.; Eisenman, Ian; Hendershott, Myrl C.; Papadopoulos, Caroline A.

    2014-12-01

    The seasonal cycle of sea ice variability in the Bering Sea, together with the thermodynamic and dynamic processes that control it, are examined in a fine resolution (1/10°) global coupled ocean/sea-ice model configured in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The ocean/sea-ice model consists of the Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) and the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model (CICE). The model was forced with time-varying reanalysis atmospheric forcing for the time period 1970-1989. This study focuses on the time period 1980-1989. The simulated seasonal-mean fields of sea ice concentration strongly resemble satellite-derived observations, as quantified by root-mean-square errors and pattern correlation coefficients. The sea ice energy budget reveals that the seasonal thermodynamic ice volume changes are dominated by the surface energy flux between the atmosphere and the ice in the northern region and by heat flux from the ocean to the ice along the southern ice edge, especially on the western side. The sea ice force balance analysis shows that sea ice motion is largely associated with wind stress. The force due to divergence of the internal ice stress tensor is large near the land boundaries in the north, and it is small in the central and southern ice-covered region. During winter, which dominates the annual mean, it is found that the simulated sea ice was mainly formed in the northern Bering Sea, with the maximum ice growth rate occurring along the coast due to cold air from northerly winds and ice motion away from the coast. South of St Lawrence Island, winds drive the model sea ice southwestward from the north to the southwestern part of the ice-covered region. Along the ice edge in the western Bering Sea, model sea ice is melted by warm ocean water, which is carried by the simulated Bering Slope Current flowing to the northwest, resulting in the S-shaped asymmetric ice edge. In spring and fall, similar thermodynamic and dynamic

  4. Seasonal predictions of equatorial Atlantic SST in a low-resolution CGCM with surface heat flux correction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dippe, Tina; Greatbatch, Richard; Ding, Hui

    2016-04-01

    The dominant mode of interannual variability in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is the Atlantic Niño or Zonal Mode. Akin to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the Pacific sector, it is able to impact the climate both of the adjacent equatorial African continent and remote regions. Due to heavy biases in the mean state climate of the equatorial-to-subtropical Atlantic, however, most state-of-the-art coupled global climate models (CGCMs) are unable to realistically simulate equatorial Atlantic variability. In this study, the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) is used to investigate the impact of a simple bias alleviation technique on the predictability of equatorial Atlantic SSTs. Two sets of seasonal forecasting experiments are performed: An experiment using the standard KCM (STD), and an experiment with additional surface heat flux correction (FLX) that efficiently removes the SST bias from simulations. Initial conditions for both experiments are generated by the KCM run in partially coupled mode, a simple assimilation technique that forces the KCM with observed wind stress anomalies and preserves SST as a fully prognostic variable. Seasonal predictions for both sets of experiments are run four times yearly for 1981-2012. Results: Heat flux correction substantially improves the simulated variability in the initialization runs for boreal summer and fall (June-October). In boreal spring (March-May), however, neither the initialization runs of the STD or FLX-experiments are able to capture the observed variability. FLX-predictions show no consistent enhancement of skill relative to the predictions of the STD experiment over the course of the year. The skill of persistence forecasts is hardly beat by either of the two experiments in any season, limiting the usefulness of the few forecasts that show significant skill. However, FLX-forecasts initialized in May recover skill in July and August, the peak season of the Atlantic Niño (anomaly correlation

  5. Biodiversity and Seasonal Changes of the Microbiome in Chernozem Agroecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kutovaya, Olga; Chernov, Timofey; Tkhakakhova, Azida; Ivanova, Ekaterina

    2016-04-01

    Studies of the influence of different agricultural technologies on the soil microbiome are widespread; they are important for understanding the dependence of the microbiome on environmental and soil factors and solution of practical problems related to the control of biochemical processes in soils used in agriculture. The seasonal variability (spring-summer-autumn) of the taxonomic structure of prokaryotic microbiomes in chernozems was studied using sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. The DNA preparation was used as the matrix for a polymerase chain reaction with the use of a pair of universal primers to the variable region V4 of the 16S rRNA gene - F515 (GTGCCAGCMGCCGCGGTAA) and R806 (GGACTACVSGGGTATCTAAT). The preparation of the samples and sequencing were made on a GS Junior. The samples were collected from the topsoil (0-20 cm) horizons of a long-term fallow and croplands differing in the rates of application of mineral fertilizers (NPK). The results of the weighted UniFrac analysis show that the microbiomes of the fallow and field were distinctly distinguished and that the type of land use significantly affected the structure of the microbial community. The most sensitive to the type of land use were the representatives of the Firmicutes, Gemmatiomonades, and Verrucomicrobia phyla. The type of vegetation and aeration of the root-dwelling soil layer seem to be key factors of this influence. The microbiomes analyzed also differed by seasons: in the autumn samples, they were closer to the spring ones than to the summer ones. This fact evidences that the seasonal differences in the microbiomes are not simple gradual temporal changes; they reflect the influence of some ecological factors transforming the phylogenetic structure of prokaryotic communities. As the seasonal shift was equally expressed in the microbiomes of the field and fallow, it is logical to assume that it was caused by the factors common for two systems of land use. Statistically sensitive to seasonal

  6. CHARACTERIZATION OF MARAJÓ CHEESE, CREAM TYPE, IN TWO SEASONS:PHYSICOCHEMICAL AND MICROBIOLOGICAL ASPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitória Nazaré Costa Seixas

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The Marajó cheese is an artisanal product derived from buffalo milk produced in Marajó Island-PA. The objectives of this research were to characterize through physicochemical and microbiological the Marajó cheese cream type and the effect of the season. The pH, the percentage of fat in dry matter and content of sodium chloride were attributes that proximate composition showed significant difference at 5% probability by Tukey test between the two seasons. Statistical difference was not found in the percentage of titratable acidity, moisture, fat, ash, total solids extract, proteins and water activity. As for microbiological characteristics, in general, there was an improvement in the results in the dry season as to coliformes and Staphylococcus aureus. However, the result of Escherichia coli has proved to be better in the rainy season, with all samples meeting the standard of legislation. On the count of aerobic mesophilic there was no difference between the periods of the year. The pathogens Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella sp. were not detected in the Marajó cheese, cream type, within the four seasons of the year. The variability occurred in pH, %NaCl, GES and, between seasons, demonstrates the need for greater control of production aimed at standardizing and maintaining the identity of the product. Regarding the microbiological, standards were established in accordance with the current legislation.

  7. Thermal barriers constrain microbial elevational range size via climate variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianjun; Soininen, Janne

    2017-08-01

    Range size is invariably limited and understanding range size variation is an important objective in ecology. However, microbial range size across geographical gradients remains understudied, especially on mountainsides. Here, the patterns of range size of stream microbes (i.e., bacteria and diatoms) and macroorganisms (i.e., macroinvertebrates) along elevational gradients in Asia and Europe were examined. In bacteria, elevational range size showed non-significant phylogenetic signals. In all taxa, there was a positive relationship between niche breadth and species elevational range size, driven by local environmental and climatic variables. No taxa followed the elevational Rapoport's rule. Climate variability explained the most variation in microbial mean elevational range size, whereas local environmental variables were more important for macroinvertebrates. Seasonal and annual climate variation showed negative effects, while daily climate variation had positive effects on community mean elevational range size for all taxa. The negative correlation between range size and species richness suggests that understanding the drivers of range is key for revealing the processes underlying diversity. The results advance the understanding of microbial species thermal barriers by revealing the importance of seasonal and diurnal climate variation, and highlight that aquatic and terrestrial biota may differ in their response to short- and long-term climate variability. © 2017 Society for Applied Microbiology and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Seasonal genetic influence on serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels: a twin study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Greta Snellman

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although environmental factors, mainly nutrition and UV-B radiation, have been considered major determinants of vitamin D status, they have only explained a modest proportion of the variation in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D. We aimed to study the seasonal impact of genetic factors on serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: 204 same-sex twins, aged 39-85 years and living at northern latitude 60 degrees, were recruited from the Swedish Twin Registry. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D was analysed by high-pressure liquid chromatography and mass spectrometry. Genetic modelling techniques estimated the relative contributions of genetic, shared and individual-specific environmental factors to the variation in serum vitamin D. The average serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration was 84.8 nmol/l (95% CI 81.0-88.6 but the seasonal variation was substantial, with 24.2 nmol/l (95% CI 16.3-32.2 lower values during the winter as compared to the summer season. Half of the variability in 25-hydroxyvitamin D during the summer season was attributed to genetic factors. In contrast, the winter season variation was largely attributable to shared environmental influences (72%; 95% CI 48-86%, i.e., solar altitude. Individual-specific environmental influences were found to explain one fourth of the variation in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D independent of season. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: There exists a moderate genetic impact on serum vitamin D status during the summer season, probably through the skin synthesis of vitamin D. Further studies are warranted to identify the genes impacting on vitamin D status.

  9. The Effect of Agricultural Growing Season Change on Market Prices in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    deBeurs, K.M.; Brown, M. E.

    2013-01-01

    Local agricultural production is a key element of food security in many agricultural countries in Africa. Climate change and variability is likely to adversely affect these countries, particularly as they affect the ability of smallholder farmers to raise enough food to feed themselves. Seasonality influences farmers' decisions about when to sow and harvest, and ultimately the success or failure of their crops. At a 2009 conference in the United Kingdom hosted by the Institute of Development Studies, Jennings and Magrath (2009) described farmer reports from East Asia, South Asia, Southern Africa, East Africa and Latin America. Farmers indicate significant changes in the timing of rainy seasons and the pattern of rains within seasons, including: More erratic rainfall, coming at unexpected times in and out of season; Extreme storms and unusually intense rainfall are punctuated by longer dry spells within the rainy season; Increasing uncertainty as to the start of rainy seasons in many areas; Short or transitional second rainy seasons are becoming stronger than normal or are disappearing altogether. These farmer perceptions of change are striking in that they are geographically widespread and are remarkably consistent across diverse regions (Jennings and Magrath, 2009). The impact of these changes on farmers with small plots and few resources is large. Farming is becoming riskier because of heat stress, lack of water, pests and diseases that interact with ongoing pressures on natural resources. Lack of predictability in the start and length of the growing season affects the ability of farmers to invest in appropriate fertilizer levels or improved, high yielding varieties. These changes occur at the same time as the demand for food is rising and is projected to continue to rise for the next fifty years (IAASTD, 2008). Long-term data records derived from satellite remote sensing can be used to verify these reports, providing necessary analysis and documentation required

  10. Variability in anatomical features of human clavicle: Its forensic anthropological and clinical significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jagmahender Singh Sehrawat

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Bones can reflect the basic framework of human body and may provide valuable information about the biological identity of the deceased. They, often, survive the morphological alterations, taphonomic destructions, decay/mutilation and decomposition insults. In-depth knowledge of variations in clavicular shape, size and its dimensions is very important from both clinical (fixation of clavicular fractures using external or inter-medullary devices, designing orthopedic fixation devices as well as forensic anthropological perspectives. Human clavicle is the most frequently fractured bone of human skeleton, possessing high degree of variability in its anatomical, biomechanical and morphological features. Extended period of skeletal growth (up to third decade in clavicle imparts it an additional advantage for forensic identification purposes. In present study, five categories of clavicular features like lengths, diameters, angles, indices and robustness were examined to explore the suitability of collarbone for forensic and clinical purposes. For this purpose, 263 pairs of adult clavicles (195 Males and 68 Females were collected from autopsied cadavers and were studied for 13 anatomical features. Gender and occupational affiliations of cadavers were found to have significant influences on anatomical dimensions of their clavicles. Product index, weight and circumference of collarbone were found the best univariate variables, discriminating sex of more than 80% individuals. The best multivariate Function-I (DF: -17.315 + 0.054 CL-L+0.196 CC-R+0.184 DM-L could identify sex and occupation of 89.4% (89.2% Male and 89.7% Female and 65.4% individuals, respectively. All clavicular variables were found bilaterally asymmetric; left clavicles being significantly longer in length, lighter in weight, smooth in texture and less curved than the right side bones. Among non-metric traits, sub-clavian groove, nutrient foramina and ‘type’ of clavicle exhibited

  11. Seasonal temperature extremes in Potsdam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundzewicz, Zbigniew; Huang, Shaochun

    2010-12-01

    The awareness of global warming is well established and results from the observations made on thousands of stations. This paper complements the large-scale results by examining a long time-series of high-quality temperature data from the Secular Meteorological Station in Potsdam, where observation records over the last 117 years, i.e., from January 1893 are available. Tendencies of change in seasonal temperature-related climate extremes are demonstrated. "Cold" extremes have become less frequent and less severe than in the past, while "warm" extremes have become more frequent and more severe. Moreover, the interval of the occurrence of frost has been decreasing, while the interval of the occurrence of hot days has been increasing. However, many changes are not statistically significant, since the variability of temperature indices at the Potsdam station has been very strong.

  12. Western lowland gorillas (Gorilla gorilla gorilla) as seasonal frugivores: use of variable resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remis, M J

    1997-01-01

    The gorillas studied at Bai Hokou, Central African Republic, between August 1990 and October 1992 consumed 239 kinds of foods from 138 species of plants and invertebrates, including the fruits of 77 species. Seeds were present in 99% of all fecal samples (n = 859). Although gorillas ate fleshy fruit whenever it was available, herbaceous plants and fibrous fruits were consumed year-round and were important during times of fleshy fruit scarcity. At Bai Hokou and across their range, resources are temporally discontinuous, and western gorilla diet exhibits marked seasonal and interannual variation. Although their large body size lends them dietary flexibility relative to chimpanzees, seasonal fruit-eating shapes the foraging and ranging patterns of western lowland gorillas.

  13. Variability of Jump Kinetics Related to Training Load in Elite Female Basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legg, Jan; Pyne, David B; Semple, Stuart; Ball, Nick

    2017-11-04

    The purpose of this study was to quantify changes in jump performance and variability in elite female basketballers. Junior and senior female representative basketball players ( n = 10) aged 18 ± 2 years participated in this study. Countermovement jump (CMJ) data was collected with a Gymaware™ optical encoder at pre-, mid-, and post-season time points across 10 weeks. Jump performance was maintained across the course of the full season (from pre to post). Concentric peak velocity, jump height, and dip showed the most stability from pre- to post-season, with the %CV ranging from 5.6⁻8.9%. In the period of the highest training load (mid-season), the variability of within-subject performance was reduced by approximately 2⁻4% in all measures except for jump height. Altered jump mechanics through a small (0.26 effect size) increase in dip were evident at mid-season, suggesting that CMJ analysis is useful for coaches to use as an in-season monitoring tool. The highest coefficient of variation (8⁻22%CV) in inter-set scores in all measures except eccentric peak velocity also occurred mid-season. It appears that in-season load not only impairs jump performance, but also movement variability in basketball players.

  14. Variability of Jump Kinetics Related to Training Load in Elite Female Basketball

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Legg

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to quantify changes in jump performance and variability in elite female basketballers. Junior and senior female representative basketball players (n = 10 aged 18 ± 2 years participated in this study. Countermovement jump (CMJ data was collected with a Gymaware™ optical encoder at pre-, mid-, and post-season time points across 10 weeks. Jump performance was maintained across the course of the full season (from pre to post. Concentric peak velocity, jump height, and dip showed the most stability from pre- to post-season, with the %CV ranging from 5.6–8.9%. In the period of the highest training load (mid-season, the variability of within-subject performance was reduced by approximately 2–4% in all measures except for jump height. Altered jump mechanics through a small (0.26 effect size increase in dip were evident at mid-season, suggesting that CMJ analysis is useful for coaches to use as an in-season monitoring tool. The highest coefficient of variation (8–22%CV in inter-set scores in all measures except eccentric peak velocity also occurred mid-season. It appears that in-season load not only impairs jump performance, but also movement variability in basketball players.

  15. Seasonal variability of stream water quality response to storm events captured using high-frequency and multi-parameter data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fovet, O.; Humbert, G.; Dupas, R.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Gruau, G.; Jaffrezic, A.; Thelusma, G.; Faucheux, M.; Gilliet, N.; Hamon, Y.; Grimaldi, C.

    2018-04-01

    The response of stream chemistry to storm is of major interest for understanding the export of dissolved and particulate species from catchments. The related challenge is the identification of active hydrological flow paths during these events and of the sources of chemical elements for which these events are hot moments of exports. An original four-year data set that combines high frequency records of stream flow, turbidity, nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and piezometric levels was used to characterize storm responses in a headwater agricultural catchment. The data set was used to test to which extend the shallow groundwater was impacting the variability of storm responses. A total of 177 events were described using a set of quantitative and functional descriptors related to precipitation, stream and groundwater pre-event status and event dynamics, and to the relative dynamics between water quality parameters and flow via hysteresis indices. This approach led to identify different types of response for each water quality parameter which occurrence can be quantified and related to the seasonal functioning of the catchment. This study demonstrates that high-frequency records of water quality are precious tools to study/unique in their ability to emphasize the variability of catchment storm responses.

  16. Indo-Pacific Variability on Seasonal to Multidecadal Time Scales. Part I: Intrinsic SST Modes in Models and Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Slawinska, Joanna; Giannakis, Dimitrios

    2017-07-01

    The variability of Indo-Pacific SST on seasonal to multidecadal timescales is investigated using a recently introduced technique called nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA). Through this technique, drawbacks associated with ad hoc pre-filtering of the input data are avoided, enabling recovery of low-frequency and intermittent modes not previously accessible via classical approaches. Here, a multiscale hierarchy of spatiotemporal modes is identified for Indo-Pacific SST in millennial control runs of CCSM4 and CM3 and in HadISST data. On interannual timescales, a mode with spatiotemporal patterns corresponding to the fundamental component of ENSO emerges, along with ENSO-modulated annual modes consistent with combination mode theory. The ENSO combination modes also feature prominent activity in the Indian Ocean, explaining significant fraction of the SST variance in regions associated with the Indian Ocean dipole. A pattern resembling the tropospheric biennial oscillation emerges in addition to ENSO and the associated combination modes. On multidecadal timescales, the dominant NLSA mode in the model data is predominantly active in the western tropical Pacific. The interdecadal Pacific oscillation also emerges as a distinct NLSA mode, though with smaller explained variance than the western Pacific multidecadal mode. Analogous modes on interannual and decadal timescales are also identified in HadISST data for the industrial era, as well as in model data of comparable timespan, though decadal modes are either absent or of degraded quality in these datasets.

  17. Seasonal emanation of radon at Ghuttu, northwest Himalaya: Differentiation of atmospheric temperature and pressure influences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamra, Leena

    2015-01-01

    Continuous monitoring of radon along with meteorological parameters has been carried out in a seismically active area of Garhwal region, northwest Himalaya, within the frame work of earthquake precursory research. Radon measurements are carried out by using a gamma ray detector installed in the air column at a depth of 10 m in a 68 m deep borehole. The analysis of long time series for 2006–2012 shows strong seasonal variability masked by diurnal and multi-day variations. Isolation of a seasonal cycle by minimising short-time by 31 day running average shows a strong seasonal variation with unambiguous dependence on atmospheric temperature and pressure. The seasonal characteristics of radon concentrations are positively correlated to atmospheric temperature (R=0.95) and negatively correlated to atmospheric pressure (R=−0.82). The temperature and pressure variation in their annual progressions are negatively correlated. The calculations of partial correlation coefficient permit us to conclude that atmospheric temperature plays a dominant role in controlling the variability of radon in borehole, 71% of the variability in radon arises from the variation in atmospheric temperature and about 6% of the variability is contributed by atmospheric pressure. The influence of pressure variations in an annual cycle appears to be a pseudo-effect, resulting from the negative correlation between temperature and pressure variations. Incorporation of these results explains the varying and even contradictory claims regarding the influence of the pressure variability on radon changes in the published literature. Temperature dependence, facilitated by the temperature gradient in the borehole, controls the transportation of radon from the deep interior to the surface. - Highlights: • Seasonal variability of radon in borehole. • Influence of atmospheric temperature and pressure on radon variability. • Partial correlation coefficient.

  18. The effect of seasonality on burn incidence, severity and outcome in Central Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tyson, Anna F; Gallaher, Jared; Mjuweni, Stephen; Cairns, Bruce A; Charles, Anthony G

    2017-08-01

    In much of the world, burns are more common in cold months. However, few studies have described the seasonality of burns in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effect of seasonality on the incidence and outcome of burns in central Malawi. A retrospective analysis was performed at Kamuzu Central Hospital and included all patients admitted from May 2011 to August 2014. Demographic data, burn mechanism, total body surface area (%TBSA), and mortality were analyzed. Seasons were categorized as Rainy (December-February), Lush (March-May), Cold (June-August) and Hot (September-November). A negative binomial regression was used to assess the effect of seasonality on burn incidence. This was performed using both the raw and deseasonalized data in order to evaluate for trends not attributable to random fluctuation. A total of 905 patients were included. Flame (38%) and Scald (59%) burns were the most common mechanism. More burns occurred during the cold season (41% vs 19-20% in the other seasons). Overall mortality was 19%. Only the cold season had a statistically significant increase in burn . The incidence rate ratios (IRR) for the hot, lush, and cold seasons were 0.94 (CI 0.6-1.32), 1.02 (CI 0.72-1.45) and 1.6 (CI 1.17-2.19), respectively, when compared to the rainy season. Burn severity and mortality did not differ between seasons. The results of this study demonstrate the year-round phenomenon of burns treated at our institution, and highlights the slight predominance of burns during the cold season. These data can be used to guide prevention strategies, with special attention to the implications of the increased burn incidence during the cold season. Though burn severity and mortality remain relatively unchanged between seasons, recognizing the seasonal variability in incidence of burns is critical for resource allocation in this low-income setting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  19. Detection of additive outliers in seasonal time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haldrup, Niels; Montañés, Antonio; Sansó, Andreu

    The detection and location of additive outliers in integrated variables has attracted much attention recently because such outliers tend to affect unit root inference among other things. Most of these procedures have been developed for non-seasonal processes. However, the presence of seasonality......) to deal with data sampled at a seasonal frequency and the size and power properties are discussed. We also show that the presence of periodic heteroscedasticity will inflate the size of the tests and hence will tend to identify an excessive number of outliers. A modified Perron-Rodriguez test which allows...... periodically varying variances is suggested and it is shown to have excellent properties in terms of both power and size...

  20. Investigation of hydrological variability in the Korean Peninsula with the ENSO teleconnections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Yoon

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes nonlinear behavior links with atmospheric teleconnections between hydrologic variables and climate indices using statistical models during warm season (June to September over the Korean Peninsula (KP. The ocean-related major climate factor, which is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO was used to analyze the atmospheric teleconnections by principal component analysis (PCA and a singular spectrum analysis (SSA. The nonlinear lag time correlations between climate indices and hydrologic variables are calculated by Mutual Information (MI technique. The nonlinear correlation coefficients (CCs by MI were higher than linear CCs, and ENSO shows a few months of lag time correlation. The warm season hydrologic variables in KP shows a significant increasing tendency during the warm pool (WP, and the cold tongue (CT El Niño decaying years shows a significant decreasing tendency, while the La Niña year shows slightly above normal conditions, respectively. A better understanding of the relationship between climate indices and streamflow, and their local impacts can help to prepare for the river discharge management by water managers and scientists. Furthermore, these results provide useful data for policy makers and end-users to support long-range water resources prediction and water-related policy.

  1. The Relationship between El nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Phenomenon and Seasonal Precipitation Variability in Eastern Kenya with Special Reference to Katumani: Its Implication to Crop Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitheka, S.K

    1999-01-01

    Climatic variability has been defined as a major limitation to agricultural production in semi arid Kenya. The major difficulty to both farmers and research community, has been the inability to to predict seasonal rainfall prior to the season onset. Although several researches have attempted and made advances in predicting rainfall amount, solutions to the problem have not been achieved. This study has examined and related rainfall at Katumani with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. Rainfall variations during different phases of ENSO were established. Some advances in the early prediction of March-May and October -January rains for, both, the warm and cold phases of ENSO have been made. Crop production is closely related to the rainfall and therefore a need for revision of agronomic recommendation to tie them with rainfall variation

  2. Seasonal, interannual, and long-term variabilities in biomass burning activity over South Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhardwaj, P; Naja, M; Kumar, R; Chandola, H C

    2016-03-01

    The seasonal, interannual, and long-term variations in biomass burning activity and related emissions are not well studied over South Asia. In this regard, active fire location retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), the retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS Terra, and tropospheric column NO2 from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) are used to understand the effects of biomass burning on the tropospheric pollution loadings over South Asia during 2003-2013. Biomass burning emission estimates from Global Fire Emission Database (GFED) and Global Fire Assimilation System (GFAS) are also used to quantify uncertainties and regional discrepancies in the emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx), and black carbon (BC) due to biomass burning in South Asia. In the Asian continent, the frequency of fire activity is highest over Southeast Asia, followed by South Asia and East Asia. The biomass burning activity in South Asia shows a distinct seasonal cycle that peaks during February-May with some differences among four (north, central, northeast, and south) regions in India. The annual biomass burning activity in north, central, and south regions shows an increasing tendency, particularly after 2008, while a decrease is seen in northeast region during 2003-2013. The increase in fire counts over the north and central regions contributes 24 % of the net enhancement in fire counts over South Asia. MODIS AOD and OMI tropospheric column NO2 retrievals are classified into high and low fire activity periods and show that biomass burning leads to significant enhancement in tropospheric pollution loading over both the cropland and forest regions. The enhancement is much higher (110-176 %) over the forest region compared to the cropland (34-62 %) region. Further efforts are required to understand the implications of biomass burning on the regional air quality and climate of South Asia.

  3. Identifying Factors Causing Variability in Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Fluxes in a Polygonal Tundra Landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, B.; Wainwright, H. M.; Vaughn, L. S.; Curtis, J. B.; Torn, M. S.; Dafflon, B.; Hubbard, S. S.

    2017-12-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) flux variations in Arctic tundra environments are important to understand because of the vast amount of soil carbon stored in these regions and the potential of these regions to convert from a global carbon sink to a source under warmer conditions. Multiple factors potentially contribute to GHG flux variations observed in these environments, including snowmelt timing, growing season length, active layer thickness, water table variations, and temperature fluctuations. The objectives of this study are to investigate temporal variability in CO2 and CH4 fluxes at Barrow, AK over three successive growing seasons (2012-14) and to determine the factors influencing this variability using a novel entropy-based classification scheme. We analyzed soil, vegetation, and climate parameters as well as GHG fluxes at multiple locations within low-, flat- and high-centered polygons at Barrow, AK as part of the Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment (NGEE) Arctic project. Entropy results indicate that different environmental factors govern variability in GHG fluxes under different spatiotemporal settings. In particular, flat-centered polygons are more likely to become significant sources of CO2 during warm and dry years as opposed to high-centered polygons that contribute considerably to CO2 emissions during cold and wet years. In contrast, the highest CH4 emissions were always associated with low-centered polygons. Temporal variability in CO2 fluxes was primarily associated with factors affecting soil temperature and/or vegetation dynamics during early and late season periods. Temporal variability in CH4 fluxes was primarily associated with changes in vegetation cover and its covariability with primary controls such as seasonal thaw—rather than direct response to changes in soil moisture. Overall, entropy results document which factors became important under different spatiotemporal settings, thus providing clues concerning the manner in which ecosystem

  4. Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hytteborn, Julia K.; Temnerud, Johan; Alexander, Richard B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Futter, Martyn N.; Fröberg, Mats; Dahné, Joel; Bishop, Kevin H.

    2015-01-01

    Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type).Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality.Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.

  5. Direct observations of ice seasonality reveal changes in climate over the past 320–570 years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Sapna; Magnuson, John J.; Batt, Ryan D.; Winslow, Luke; Korhonen, Johanna; Yasuyuki Aono,

    2016-01-01

    Lake and river ice seasonality (dates of ice freeze and breakup) responds sensitively to climatic change and variability. We analyzed climate-related changes using direct human observations of ice freeze dates (1443–2014) for Lake Suwa, Japan, and of ice breakup dates (1693–2013) for Torne River, Finland. We found a rich array of changes in ice seasonality of two inland waters from geographically distant regions: namely a shift towards later ice formation for Suwa and earlier spring melt for Torne, increasing frequencies of years with warm extremes, changing inter-annual variability, waning of dominant inter-decadal quasi-periodic dynamics, and stronger correlations of ice seasonality with atmospheric CO2 concentration and air temperature after the start of the Industrial Revolution. Although local factors, including human population growth, land use change, and water management influence Suwa and Torne, the general patterns of ice seasonality are similar for both systems, suggesting that global processes including climate change and variability are driving the long-term changes in ice seasonality.

  6. Seasonal variability of metallothioneins, cytochrome P450, Bile metabolites and oxyradical metabolism in the European eel Anguilla anguilla L. (Anguillidae) and striped mullet Mugil cephalus L. (Mugilidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorbi, Stefania; Baldini, Chiara; Regoli, Francesco

    2005-07-01

    The European eel Anguilla anguilla (Anguillidae) and the striped mullet Mugil cephalus (Mugilidae) are typical inhabitants of Mediterranean brackish lagoons, and their utility as bioindicator organisms has already been suggested. The seasonal variability of several potential biomarkers was investigated during a field study carried out in the Orbetello lagoon (Tuscany, Italy). Organisms were sampled on a seasonal basis, and analyzed parameters included the levels of hepatic metallothioneins, the activity of cytochrome P450 1A (EROD), and the presence of biliary PAH metabolites. Special attention was also paid to antioxidant defenses, including catalase, glutathione peroxidases, glutathione reductase, glutathione S-transferases, and total glutathione concentration. Total Oxyradical Scavenging Capacity (TOSC-assay) was measured as an indication of the overall biological resistance to toxicity of different forms of oxyradicals (peroxynitrite, peroxyl and hydroxyl radicals). Obtained results suggest that natural variations of analyzed responses are associated with seasonality of both environmental and biological factors, mainly temperature and reproductive cycle which, however, have a different influence in these two species. Striped mullets exhibited the strongest variations in October when spawning occurs; eels are not influenced by a seasonal sexual maturation and showed more marked changes during the summer, likely related to the elevated seawater temperature and light irradiance in the lagoon. This study confirms the importance of characterizing seasonal variations and the influence of different factors on biological responses that can be used as biomarkers in monitoring programs.

  7. Seasonality, water quality trends and biological responses in four streams in the Cairngorm Mountains, Scotland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Soulsby

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available The chemical composition and invertebrate communities found in four streams in the Cairngorms, Scotland, were monitored between 1985-1997. Stream waters were mildly acidic (mean pH ca. 6.5, with low alkalinity (mean acid neutralising capacity varying from 35-117 meq l-1 and low ionic strength. Subtle differences in the chemistry of each stream were reflected in their invertebrate faunas. Strong seasonality in water chemistry occurred, with the most acid, low alkalinity waters observed during the winter and early spring. This was particularly marked during snowmelt between January and April. In contrast, summer flows were usually groundwater dominated and characterised by higher alkalinity and higher concentrations of most other weathering-derived solutes. Seasonality was also clear in the invertebrate data, with Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA separating seasonal samples along axes related to water temperature and discharge characteristics. Inter-annual hydrological and chemical differences were marked, particularly with respect to the winter period. Invertebrate communities found in each of the streams also varied from year to year, with spring communities significantly more variable (PHydrochemical trends over the study period were analysed using a seasonal Kendall test, LOcally WEighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS and graphical techniques. These indicated that a reduction in sulphate concentrations in stream water is occurring, consistent with declining levels of atmospheric deposition. This may be matched by increases in pH and declining calcium concentrations, though available evidence is inconclusive. Other parameters, such as chloride, total organic carbon and zinc, reveal somewhat random patterns, probably reflecting irregular variations in climatic factors and/or atmospheric deposition. Previous studies have shown that the stream invertebrate communities have remained stable over this period (i.e. no significant linear trends

  8. Variability in large-scale wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kiviluoma, Juha; Holttinen, Hannele; Weir, David

    2016-01-01

    The paper demonstrates the characteristics of wind power variability and net load variability in multiple power systems based on real data from multiple years. Demonstrated characteristics include probability distribution for different ramp durations, seasonal and diurnal variability and low net ...... with well-dispersed wind power. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd....

  9. Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

    2017-10-01

    A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

  10. Characterizing Vineyard Water Status Variability in a Premium Winegrape Vineyard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smart, David; Carvahlo, Angela

    2017-04-01

    One of the biggest challenges in viticulture and winemaking is managing and optimizing yield and quality across vineyard blocks that show high spatial variability. Studies have shown that zonal management of vine water status can contribute significantly to improving overall fruit quality and improving uniformity. Vine water status is a major parameter for vine management because it affects both wine quality and yield. In order to optimize vineyard management and harvesting practices, it is necessary to characterize vineyard variability in terms of water status. Establishing a targeted irrigation program first requires spatially characterizing the variability in vine water status of a vineyard. In California, due to the low or no rainfall during the active growing season, the majority of vineyards implement some type of irrigation management program. As water supplies continue to decrease as a consequence of persistent drought, establishing efficient and targeted water use programs is of growing importance in California. The aim of this work was to characterize the spatial variability of plant-water relations across a non-uniform 4 ha block in Napa Valley with the primary objective of establishing vineyard irrigation management zones. The study plot was divided into three sections, designated the North, Middle and South sections, each at about 1.3 hectares. Stem (Ψstem) and midday (Ψl) leaf water potential and predawn (ΨPD) water potential were measured at 36 locations within the block at 14 (Ψl), 10 (ΨPD) and 2 (Ψstem) points in time throughout the growing season. Of the three techniques utilized to evaluate water status, ΨPD and Ψstem were the most sensitive indicators of water stress conditions. An integrated overview of water use efficiency over the growing season was assessed by measuring the leaf carbon isotope ratio of δ13C. Fully mature leaves were sampled from 280 vines and results show, similarly to ΨPD and Ψstem, that the North section (-28

  11. Seasonal variation in mercury and food web biomagnification in Lake Ontario, Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Liang; Campbell, Linda M.; Johnson, Timothy B.

    2012-01-01

    significantly by season. ► This was attributed to variable Hg concentrations and the composition of sample set in each season. - Mercury concentrations and food web biomagnification rates, as indicated by log Hg-δ 15 N regression slopes, in the Lake Ontario food web vary seasonally.

  12. A data assimilation framework for constraining upscaled cropland carbon flux seasonality and biometry with MODIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Sus

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Agroecosystem models are strongly dependent on information on land management patterns for regional applications. Land management practices play a major role in determining global yield variability, and add an anthropogenic signal to the observed seasonality of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, there is still little knowledge on spatial and temporal variability of important farmland activities such as crop sowing dates, and thus these remain rather crudely approximated within carbon cycle studies. In this study, we present a framework allowing for spatio-temporally resolved simulation of cropland carbon fluxes under observational constraints on land management and canopy greenness. We apply data assimilation methodology in order to explicitly account for information on sowing dates and model leaf area index. MODIS 250 m vegetation index data were assimilated both in batch-calibration for sowing date estimation and sequentially for improved model state estimation, using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF, into a crop carbon mass balance model (SPAc. In doing so, we are able to quantify the multiannual (2000–2006 regional carbon flux and biometry seasonality of maize–soybean crop rotations surrounding the Bondville Ameriflux eddy covariance site, averaged over 104 pixel locations within the wider area. (1 Validation at the Bondville site shows that growing season C cycling is simulated accurately with MODIS-derived sowing dates, and we expect that this framework allows for accurate simulations of C cycling at locations for which ground-truth data are not available. Thus, this framework enables modellers to simulate current (i.e. last 10 yr carbon cycling of major agricultural regions. Averaged over the 104 field patches analysed, relative spatial variability for biometry and net ecosystem exchange ranges from ∼7% to ∼18%. The annual sign of net biome productivity is not significantly different from carbon neutrality. (2 Moreover

  13. Significant Variables in the Combustion Process of Natural Gas

    OpenAIRE

    Villaflor, Gloria; Morales, Graciela V; Velasco, Jorge

    2008-01-01

    Se determinan las variables significativas del proceso de combustión de gas natural, aquellas más sensibles para producir cambios importantes desde punto de vista económico y medioambiental. Con este fin se realiza la simulación del proceso de combustión de gas natural, utilizando el simulador comercial HYSYS. Se determina que las variables de operación más sensibles para este proceso son la temperatura del aire, la temperatura de los gases de combustión y el exceso de aire usado en la combus...

  14. Seasonal forcing in a host-macroparasite system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Rachel A; White, Andrew; Sherratt, Jonathan A

    2015-01-21

    Seasonal forcing represents a pervasive source of environmental variability in natural systems. Whilst it is reasonably well understood in interacting populations and host-microparasite systems, it has not been studied in detail for host-macroparasite systems. In this paper we analyse the effect of seasonal forcing in a general host-macroparasite system with explicit inclusion of the parasite larval stage and seasonal forcing applied to the birth rate of the host. We emphasise the importance of the period of the limit cycles in the unforced system on the resulting dynamics in the forced system. In particular, when subject to seasonal forcing host-macroparasite systems are capable of multi-year cycles, multiple solution behaviour, quasi-periodicity and chaos. The host-macroparasite systems show a larger potential for multiple solution behaviour and a wider range of periodic solutions compared to similar interacting population and microparasite systems. By examining the system for parameters that represent red grouse and the macroparasite nematode Trichostrongylus tenuis we highlight how seasonality could be an important factor in explaining the wide range of seemingly uncorrelated cycle periods observed in grouse abundance in England and Scotland. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Crop Yield Predictions - High Resolution Statistical Model for Intra-season Forecasts Applied to Corn in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Accurately forecasting crop yields has broad implications for economic trading, food production monitoring, and global food security. However, the variation of environmental variables presents challenges to model yields accurately, especially when the lack of highly accurate measurements creates difficulties in creating models that can succeed across space and time. In 2016, we developed a sequence of machine-learning based models forecasting end-of-season corn yields for the US at both the county and national levels. We combined machine learning algorithms in a hierarchical way, and used an understanding of physiological processes in temporal feature selection, to achieve high precision in our intra-season forecasts, including in very anomalous seasons. During the live run, we predicted the national corn yield within 1.40% of the final USDA number as early as August. In the backtesting of the 2000-2015 period, our model predicts national yield within 2.69% of the actual yield on average already by mid-August. At the county level, our model predicts 77% of the variation in final yield using data through the beginning of August and improves to 80% by the beginning of October, with the percentage of counties predicted within 10% of the average yield increasing from 68% to 73%. Further, the lowest errors are in the most significant producing regions, resulting in very high precision national-level forecasts. In addition, we identify the changes of important variables throughout the season, specifically early-season land surface temperature, and mid-season land surface temperature and vegetation index. For the 2017 season, we feed 2016 data to the training set, together with additional geospatial data sources, aiming to make the current model even more precise. We will show how our 2017 US corn yield forecasts converges in time, which factors affect the yield the most, as well as present our plans for 2018 model adjustments.

  16. CO Seasonal Variability and Trend over Paris Megacity Using Ground-Based QualAir FTS and Satellite IASI-MetOp Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Te, Yao; Jeseck, Pascal; Hadji-Lazaro, Juliette

    2012-11-01

    In a growing world with more than 7 billion inhabitants and big emerging countries such as China, Brazil and India, emissions of anthropogenic pollutants are increasing continuously. Monitoring and control of atmospheric pollutants in megacities have become a major challenge for scientists and public health authorities in environmental research area. The QualAir platform at University Pierre et Marie Curie (UPMC), is an innovating experimental research platform dedicated to survey urban atmospheric pollution and air quality. A Bruker Optics IFS 125HR Fourier transform spectrometer belonged to the Laboratoire de Physique Moléculaire pour l'Atmosphère et l'Astrophysique (LPMAA), was adapted for ground-based atmospheric measurements. As one of the major instruments of the QualAir platform, this ground-based Fourier transform spectrometer (QualAir FTS) analyses the composition of the urban atmosphere of Paris, which is the third largest European megacity. The continuous monitoring of atmospheric pollutants is essential to improve the understanding of urban air pollution processes. Associated with a sun-tracker, the QualAir remote sensing FTS operates in solar infrared absorption and enables to monitor many trace gases, and to follow up their variability in the Ile-de-France region. Concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are retrieved by the radiative transfer model PROFFIT. These ground-based remote sensing measurements are compared to ground in-situ measurements and to satellite data from IASI-MetOp (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer). The remote sensing total column of the carbon monoxide (CO) obtained from January 2009 to June 2012, has a seasonal variability with a maximum in April and a minimum in October. While, after 2008, the mean CO level is quite stable (no significant decrease as before 2008).

  17. SEASONAL VARIABILITY OF SELECTED NUTRIENTS IN THE WATERS OF LAKES NIEPRUSZEWSKIE, PAMIATKOWSKIE AND STRYKOWSKIE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zbierska

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the evaluation of seasonal and long-term changes in selected nutrients of three lakes of the Poznań Lakeland. The lakes were selected due to the high risk of pollution from agricultural and residential areas. Water samples were taken in 6 control points in the spring, summer and autumn, from 2004 to 2014. Trophic status of the lakes was evaluated based on the concentration of nutrients (nitrates, nitrites, ammonium, nitrogen and phosphorus and indicators of eutrophication. Studies have shown that the concentration of nutrients varied greatly both in individual years and seasons of the analyzed decades, especially in Lakes Niepruszewskie and Pamiątkowskie. The main problem is the high concentration of nitrates. In general, it showed an upward trend until 2013, especially in the spring. This may indicate that actions restricting runoff pollution from agricultural sources have not been fully effective. On the other hand, a marked downward trend in the concentrations of NH4 over the years from 2004 to 2014, especially after 2007, indicates a gradual improvement of wastewater management. Moreover, seasonal variation in NH4 concentrations differed from those of NO3 and NO2. The highest values were reported in the autumn season, the lowest in the summer. Concentrations of nutrients and eutrophication indexes reached high values in all analysed lakes, indicating a eutrophic or hypertrophic state of the lakes. The high value of the N:P ratio indicates that the lakes had a huge surplus of nitrogen, and phosphorus is a productivity limiting factor.

  18. Seasonal variation of the protozooplanktonic community in a tropical oligotrophic environment (Ilha Solteira reservoir, Brazil).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansano, A S; Hisatugo, K F; Leite, M A; Luzia, A P; Regali-Seleghim, M H

    2013-05-01

    The seasonal variation of the protozooplanktonic community (ciliates and testate amoebae) was studied in a tropical oligotrophic reservoir in Brazil, which was under the influence of two contrasting climatic seasons (rainy/warm and dry/cold). The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of these climatic changes on physical, chemical and biological variables in the dynamic of this community. The highest mean density of total protozoans occurred in the rainy/warm season (5683.2 ind L-1), while the lowest was in the dry/cold (2016.0 ind L-1). Considering the seasonal variations, the protozoan groups that are truly planktonic, such as the oligotrichs (Spirotrichea), predominated in the dry season, whereas during the rainy season, due to the material input and resuspension of sediment, sessile protozoans of the Peritrichia group were the most important ones. The dominant protozoans were Urotricha globosa, Cothurnia annulata, Pseudodifflugia sp. and Halteria grandinella. The highest densities of H. grandinella were associated with more oxygenated and transparent water conditions, while the highest densities of C. annulata occurred in sites with high turbidity, pH and trophic state index (TSI). The study demonstrated that density and composition of protozooplanktonic species and groups of the reservoir suffered seasonal variation due to the environmental variables (mainly temperature, turbidity, water transparency, dissolved oxygen and TSI) and the biological variables (e.g. morphological characteristics, eating habits and escape strategies from predation of the species).

  19. Dual temperature effects on oxygen isotopic ratio of shallow-water coral skeleton: Consequences on seasonal and interannual records

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juillet-Leclerc, A.; Reynaud, S.

    2009-04-01

    Oxygen isotopic ratio from coral skeleton is regarded for a long time as promising climate archives at seasonal scale. Although in isotopic disequilibrium relative to seawater, it is supposed to obey to the isotope thermometer. Indeed, coral oxygen isotopic records are strongly temperature dependent, but d18O-temperature calibrations derived from different corals are highly variable. The isotope thermometer assumption does not take into account vital effects due to biogenic origin of the mineral. Corals are animals living in symbiosis with algae (zooxanthellae). Interactions between symbiont photosynthesis and coral skeleton carbonation have been abundantly observed but they remain poorly understood and the effects of photosynthesis on coral growth and skeleton oxygen ratio are ignored. Coral cultured under two light conditions enabled to relate metabolic parameters and oxygen isotopic variability with photosynthetic activity. By examining responses provided by each colony they revealed that photosynthesis significantly affected d18O, by an opposite sense compared with the sole temperature influence. Since temperature and light changes are associated during seasonal variations, this complicates the interpretation of seasonal record. Additionally, this complexity is amplified because photosynthetic activity is also directly impacted by temperature variability. Thus, the annual isotopic amplitude due to the "physical" temperature influence is partly compensated through photosynthesis. Similar opposite effect is also shown by extension rate of the cultured colonies. First, we will examine and quantify consequences of photosynthesis on growth rate and oxygen isotopic signature, from cultured corals. Second, we will consider the consequences of this vital effect on data series, at seasonal and interannual time scales.

  20. LASR-Guided Variability Subtraction: The Linear Algorithm for Significance Reduction of Stellar Seismic Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horvath, Sarah; Myers, Sam; Ahlers, Johnathon; Barnes, Jason W.

    2017-10-01

    Stellar seismic activity produces variations in brightness that introduce oscillations into transit light curves, which can create challenges for traditional fitting models. These oscillations disrupt baseline stellar flux values and potentially mask transits. We develop a model that removes these oscillations from transit light curves by minimizing the significance of each oscillation in frequency space. By removing stellar variability, we prepare each light curve for traditional fitting techniques. We apply our model to $\\delta$-Scuti KOI-976 and demonstrate that our variability subtraction routine successfully allows for measuring bulk system characteristics using traditional light curve fitting. These results open a new window for characterizing bulk system parameters of planets orbiting seismically active stars.

  1. Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature influences on failed consecutive rainy seasons over eastern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoell, Andrew; Funk, Christopher C.

    2014-01-01

    Rainfall over eastern Africa (10°S–10°N; 35°E–50°E) is bimodal, with seasonal maxima during the "long rains" of March–April–May (MAM) and the "short rains" of October–November–December (OND). Below average precipitation during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa can have devastating long-term impacts on water availability and agriculture. Here, we examine the forcing of drought during consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa by Indo-Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The forcing of eastern Africa precipitation and circulation by SSTs is tested using ten ensemble simulations of a global weather forecast model forced by 1950–2010 observed global SSTs. Since the 1980s, Indo-Pacific SSTs have forced more frequent droughts spanning consecutive long and short rains seasons over eastern Africa. The increased frequency of dry conditions is linked to warming SSTs over the Indo-west Pacific and to a lesser degree to Pacific Decadal Variability. During MAM, long-term warming of tropical west Pacific SSTs from 1950–2010 has forced statistically significant precipitation reductions over eastern Africa. The warming west Pacific SSTs have forced changes in the regional lower tropospheric circulation by weakening the Somali Jet, which has reduced moisture and rainfall over the Horn of Africa. During OND, reductions in precipitation over recent decades are oftentimes overshadowed by strong year-to-year precipitation variability forced by the Indian Ocean Dipole and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

  2. Quantifying seasonal velocity at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, E.; Quincey, D. J.; Miles, K.; Hubbard, B. P.; Rowan, A. V.

    2017-12-01

    While the low-gradient debris-covered tongues of many Himalayan glaciers exhibit low surface velocities, quantifying ice flow and its variation through time remains a key challenge for studies aimed at determining the long-term evolution of these glaciers. Recent work has suggested that glaciers in the Everest region of Nepal may show seasonal variability in surface velocity, with ice flow peaking during the summer as monsoon precipitation provides hydrological inputs and thus drives changes in subglacial drainage efficiency. However, satellite and aerial observations of glacier velocity during the monsoon are greatly limited due to cloud cover. Those that do exist do not span the period over which the most dynamic changes occur, and consequently short-term (i.e. daily) changes in flow, as well as the evolution of ice dynamics through the monsoon period, remain poorly understood. In this study, we combine field and remote (satellite image) observations to create a multi-temporal, 3D synthesis of ice deformation rates at Khumbu Glacier, Nepal, focused on the 2017 monsoon period. We first determine net annual and seasonal surface displacements for the whole glacier based on Landsat-8 (OLI) panchromatic data (15m) processed with ImGRAFT. We integrate inclinometer observations from three boreholes drilled by the EverDrill project to determine cumulative deformation at depth, providing a 3D perspective and enabling us to assess the role of basal sliding at each site. We additionally analyze high-frequency on-glacier L1 GNSS data from three sites to characterize variability within surface deformation at sub-seasonal timescales. Finally, each dataset is validated against repeat-dGPS observations at gridded points in the vicinity of the boreholes and GNSS dataloggers. These datasets complement one another to infer thermal regime across the debris-covered ablation area of the glacier, and emphasize the seasonal and spatial variability of ice deformation for glaciers in High

  3. Seasonal variation in the behaviour of a short-lived rodent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eccard, Jana A; Herde, Antje

    2013-11-15

    Short lived, iteroparous animals in seasonal environments experience variable social and environmental conditions over their lifetime. Animals can be divided into those with a "young-of-the-year" life history (YY, reproducing and dying in the summer of birth) and an "overwinter" life history (OW, overwintering in a subadult state before reproducing next spring).We investigated how behavioural patterns across the population were affected by season and sex, and whether variation in behaviour reflects the variation in life history patterns of each season. Applications of pace-of-life (POL) theory would suggest that long-lived OW animals are shyer in order to increase survival, and YY are bolder in order to increase reproduction. Therefore, we expected that in winter and spring samples, when only OW can be sampled, the animals should be shyer than in summer and autumn, when both OW and YY animals can be sampled.We studied common vole (Microtus arvalis) populations, which express typical, intra-annual density fluctuation. We captured a total of 492 voles at different months over 3 years and examined boldness and activity level with two standardised behavioural experiments. Behavioural variables of the two tests were correlated with each other. Boldness, measured as short latencies in both tests, was extremely high in spring compared to other seasons. Activity level was highest in spring and summer, and higher in males than in females. Being bold in laboratory tests may translate into higher risk-taking in nature by being more mobile while seeking out partners or valuable territories. Possible explanations include asset-protection, with OW animals being rather old with low residual reproductive value in spring. Therefore, OW may take higher risks during this season. Offspring born in spring encounter a lower population density and may have higher reproductive value than offspring of later cohorts. A constant connection between life history and animal personality, as

  4. Phenology of seed and leaves rain in response to periodic climatic variability in a seasonal wet tropical forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matteo, D.; Wright, S. J.; Davies, S. J.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Wolfe, B.; Detto, M.

    2016-12-01

    Phenology, by controlling the rhythms of plants, plays a fundamental role in regulating access to resources, ecosystem processes, competition among species, interactions with consumers and feedbacks to the climate. In high biodiverse tropical forests, where phenology of flowering and leafing are complex, an adequate representation of phenology must take into account a given set of climatic, edaphic and biotic factors. Climatic factors are particularly important because plants may use them as cues for timing different phenological phases and be influenced by their intensity. Climatic variability can be periodic, if events occur with regular frequency, or aperiodic. One prominent periodic large-scale pattern that causes unusual weather is ENSO event. In general, Central America tends to be dry and warm during a mature phase of an ENSO event, which usually peaks between October and January with a frequency of 2-3 events per decade. Because in many tropical areas the effect of ENSO is highly prominent, it is plausible that plants have adapted their growth and reproduction mechanisms to synchronize ENSO phases, in a similar way that plants do during the seasonal cycle. We used a long dataset (30+ years) of fruits and leaves rains of tropical trees and lianas to determine ecosystem response and species specific response of these phenological events to local climate variability corresponding to the modes of ENSO. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that phenological responses to ENSO are similar to response to seasonal cycles, i.e., higher litterfall before a warm-dry phase and higher fruiting after such phase, with strong correlation between seeds and leaves. At sub-community level, we evaluated whether evergreen and deciduous, biotic and abiotic dispersers and free and climbing life forms, have the same response to ENSO in terms of leaves and seeds rain. At species level we tested the hypothesis that species with low photosynthetic capacity leaves are more responsive

  5. Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

    2017-12-01

    Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

  6. Seasonal evaluation of groundwater quality around Igando ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Correlation and Multiple linear regression analysis was used to establish the degree of relationship and variability of groundwater quality parameters around Solous 1 and 2 Dumpsites, in Igando, Lagos, for the wet and the dry seasons. The correlation between TDS and other hydrochemical parameters which constituted ...

  7. Quantifying the effect of seasonal and vertical habitat tracking on planktonic foraminifera proxies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Jonkers

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The composition of planktonic foraminiferal (PF calcite is routinely used to reconstruct climate variability. However, PF ecology leaves a large imprint on the proxy signal: seasonal and vertical habitats of PF species vary spatially, causing variable offsets from annual mean surface conditions recorded by sedimentary assemblages. PF seasonality changes with temperature in a way that minimises the environmental change that individual species experience and it is not unlikely that changes in depth habitat also result from such habitat tracking. While this behaviour could lead to an underestimation of spatial or temporal trends as well as of variability in proxy records, most palaeoceanographic studies are (implicitly based on the assumption of a constant habitat. Up to now, the effect of habitat tracking on foraminifera proxy records has not yet been formally quantified on a global scale. Here we attempt to characterise this effect on the amplitude of environmental change recorded in sedimentary PF using core top δ18O data from six species. We find that the offset from mean annual near-surface δ18O values varies with temperature, with PF δ18O indicating warmer than mean conditions in colder waters (on average by −0.1 ‰ (equivalent to 0.4 °C per °C, thus providing a first-order quantification of the degree of underestimation due to habitat tracking. We use an empirical model to estimate the contribution of seasonality to the observed difference between PF and annual mean δ18O and use the residual Δδ18O to assess trends in calcification depth. Our analysis indicates that given an observation-based model parametrisation calcification depth increases with temperature in all species and sensitivity analysis suggests that a temperature-related seasonal habitat adjustment is essential to explain the observed isotope signal. Habitat tracking can thus lead to a significant reduction in the amplitude of recorded environmental change

  8. Seasonal Variation of Colored Dissolved Organic Matter in Barataria Bay, Louisiana, Using Combined Landsat and Field Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ishan Joshi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Coastal bays, such as Barataria Bay, are important transition zones between the terrigenous and marine environments that are also optically complex due to elevated amounts of particulate and dissolved constituents. Monthly field data collected over a period of 15 months in 2010 and 2011 in Barataria Bay were used to develop an empirical band ratio algorithm for the Landsat-5 TM that showed a good correlation with the Colored Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM absorption coefficient at 355 nm (ag355 (R2 = 0.74. Landsat-derived CDOM maps generally captured the major details of CDOM distribution and seasonal influences, suggesting the potential use of Landsat imagery to monitor biogeochemistry in coastal water environments. An investigation of the seasonal variation in ag355 conducted using Landsat-derived ag355 as well as field data suggested the strong influence of seasonality in the different regions of the bay with the marine end members (lower bay experiencing generally low but highly variable ag355 and the freshwater end members (upper bay experiencing high ag355 with low variability. Barataria Bay experienced a significant increase in ag355 during the freshwater release at the Davis Pond Freshwater Diversion (DPFD following the Deep Water Horizon oil spill in 2010 and following the Mississippi River (MR flood conditions in 2011, resulting in a weak linkage to salinity in comparison to the other seasons. Tree based statistical analysis showed the influence of high river flow conditions, high- and low-pressure systems that appeared to control ag355 by ~28%, 29% and 43% of the time duration over the study period at the marine end member just outside the bay. An analysis of CDOM variability in 2010 revealed the strong influence of the MR in controlling CDOM abundance in the lower bay during the high flow conditions, while strong winds associated with cold fronts significantly increase CDOM abundance in the upper bay, thus revealing the important

  9. Season-independent cognitive deficits in seasonal affective disorder and their relation to depressive symptoms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjordt, Liv Vadskjær; Stenbæk, Dea Siggaard; Ozenne, Brice

    2017-01-01

    Modalities Test (SDMT) and the Simple Reaction Time (SRT) twice; in summer and in winter. Compared to controls, SAD individuals showed significant season-independent impairments in tasks measuring working memory (LNS), cognitive processing speed (SDMT) and motor speed (SRT). In SAD individuals, cognitive...... processing speed was significantly negatively associated with the seasonal change in SAD depressive symptoms. We present novel evidence that in SAD individuals, working memory, cognitive processing- and motor speed is not only impaired in the winter but also in the summer. This suggests that certain...

  10. Seasonal Changes in Central England Temperatures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tommaso; Hillebrand, Eric

    The aim of this paper is to assess how climate change is reflected in the variation of the seasonal patterns of the monthly Central England Temperature time series between 1772 and 2013. In particular, we model changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Starting from the seminal work...... by Thomson (“The Seasons, Global Temperature and Precession”, Science, 7 April 1995, vol 268, p. 59–68), a number of studies have documented a shift in the phase of the annual cycle implying an earlier onset of the spring season at various European locations. A significant reduction in the amplitude...... and stochastic trends, as well as seasonally varying autocorrelation and residual variances. The model can be summarized as containing a permanent and a transitory component, where global warming is captured in the permanent component, on which the seasons load differentially. The phase of the seasonal cycle...

  11. Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime and sensitivity to temperature phase shifts in Saxony/Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

    2011-01-01

    The timing of the seasons strongly effects ecosystems and human activities. Recently, there is increasing evidence of changes in the timing of the seasons, such as earlier spring seasons detected in phenological records, advanced seasonal timing of surface temperature, earlier snow melt or streamflow timing. For water resources management there is a need to quantitatively describe the variability in the timing of hydrological regimes and to understand how climatic changes control the seasonal water budget of river basins on the regional scale. In this study, changes of the annual cycle of hydrological variables are analysed for 27 river basins in Saxony/Germany. Thereby monthly series of basin runoff ratios, the ratio of runoff and basin precipitation are investigated for changes and variability of their annual periodicity over the period 1930-2009. Approximating the annual cycle by the means of harmonic functions gave acceptable results, while only two parameters, phase and amplitude, are required. It has been found that the annual phase of runoff ratio, representing the timing of the hydrological regime, is subject to considerable year-to-year variability, being concurrent with basins in similar hydro-climatic conditions. Two distinct basin classes have been identified, whereby basin elevation has been found to be the delimiting factor. An increasing importance of snow on the basin water balance with elevation is apparent and mainly governs the temporal variability of the annual timing of hydrological regimes. Further there is evidence of coincident changes in trend direction (change points in 1971 and 1988) in snow melt influenced basins. In these basins the timing of the runoff ratio is significantly correlated with the timing of temperature, and effects on runoff by temperature phase changes are even amplified. Interestingly, temperature effects may explain the low frequent variability of the second change point until today. However, the first change point can

  12. Seasonal and interannual variability of dissolved oxygen around the Balearic Islands from hydrographic data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balbín, R.; López-Jurado, J. L.; Aparicio-González, A.; Serra, M.

    2014-10-01

    Oceanographic data obtained between 2001 and 2011 by the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO, Spain) have been used to characterise the spatial distribution and the temporal variability of the dissolved oxygen around the Balearic Islands (Mediterranean Sea). The study area includes most of the Western Mediterranean Sea, from the Alboran Sea to Cape Creus, at the border between France and Spain. Dissolved oxygen (DO) at the water surface is found to be in a state of equilibrium exchange with the atmosphere. In the spring and summer a subsurface oxygen supersaturation is observed due to the biological activity, above the subsurface fluorescence maximum. Minimum observed values of dissolved oxygen are related to the Levantine Intermediate Waters (LIW). An unusual minimum of dissolved oxygen concentrations was also recorded in the Alboran Sea Oxygen Minimum Zone. The Western Mediterranean Deep Waters (WMDW) and the Western Intermediate Waters (WIW) show higher values of dissolved oxygen than the Levantine Intermediate Waters due to their more recent formation. Using these dissolved oxygen concentrations it is possible to show that the Western Intermediate Waters move southwards across the Ibiza Channel and the deep water circulates around the Balearic Islands. It has also been possible to characterise the seasonal evolution of the different water masses and their dissolved oxygen content in a station in the Algerian sub-basin.

  13. Seasonal variation in the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia in tropical climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Subramaniam Vidya

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Observational studies have demonstrated various correlations between hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and different weather parameters. We aim to study if a correlation exists between the incidence of eclampsia and pre-eclampsia and various weather parameters in the tropical coastal city of Mumbai which has the distinction of having relatively uniform meteorological variables all throughout the year, except for the monsoon season. Methods We retrospectively analysed data from a large maternity centre in Mumbai, India over a period of 36 months from March 1993 to February 1996, recording the incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia. Meteorological data was acquired from the regional meteorological centre recording the monthly average temperature, humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall during the study period. Study period was then divided into two climate conditions: monsoon season (June to August and dry season September to May. The incidence of preeclampsia and eclampsia and the meteorological differences between the two seasons were compared. Results Over a 36-month period, a total of 29562 deliveries were recorded, of which 1238 patients developed preeclampsia (4.18% and 34 developed eclampsia (0.11%. The incidence of preeclampsia did not differ between the monsoon and the dry season (4.3% vs. 4.15%, p = 0.5. The incidence of eclampsia was significantly higher in the monsoon (0.2% vs. 0.08%, p = 0.01. The monsoon was significantly cooler (median maximum temperature 30.7°C vs. 32.3°C, p = 0.01, more humid (median relative humidity 85% vs. 70%, p = 0.0008, and received higher rainfall (median 504.9 mm vs. 0.3 mm, p = 0.0002 than the rest of the year. The median barometric pressure (1005 mb during the monsoon season was significantly lower than the rest of the year (1012 mb, p Conclusion In the tropical climate of Mumbai, the incidence of eclampsia is significantly higher in monsoon, when the weather is cooler and

  14. Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-14

    Influenza Seasonal Summarv 2014-2015 Season EpiData Center Department Communicable Disease Division NMCPHC-EDC-TR-394-2015 REPORT DOCUMENTATION... Influenza Seasonal Summary, 2014-2015 Season Sb. GRANT NUMBER $c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHORjS) Sd. PROJECT NUMBER Ashleigh K McCabe, Kristen R...SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 1<l. ABSTRACT This report summartzes influenza activity among Department of Navy (DON) and Depar1ment of Defense (DOD

  15. Seasonal and interannual variability in phytoplankton biomass on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The most probable causative mechanism is suggested to be anomalous advective fluxes of warm surface water into areas typically of high biomass deriving from the Agulhas Current retroflection in the south. Studying variability in phytoplankton biomass on the continental shelf in the context of large-scale oceanic ...

  16. Temporal variability in methane fluxes from tropical peatlands within the Peruvian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Wayne; Berrio, Juan Carlos; Boom, Arnoud; Page, Sue; Arn Teh, Yit

    2016-04-01

    Tropical peatlands are one of the largest soil carbon (C) reservoirs globally and play a significant role in modulating fluxes of C between the tropical biosphere and atmosphere. These C fluxes are of global importance because tropical wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH4); while land-use change and biomass burning also contribute to the growing global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) burden. Amazonian peatlands play a potentially important role in regional and global atmospheric budgets of C because of their large extent. These ecosystems cover an estimated 150,000km2, which is roughly three-quarters the size of Indonesian peatlands; the world's most extensive and well-studied tropical peatlands. Here we report CH4 fluxes from a lowland tropical peatland in the Pastaza-Maranon foreland basin in Peru, one of the largest peatland complexes in the lowland Amazon Basin. Strong prolonged seasonal rainfall events and the annual Amazon River flood-pulse may lead to pronounced temporal variability in biogeochemical cycling and trace gas fluxes, and this study explored how CH4 fluxes varied among wet and dry season periods in a number of key vegetation types in this region. Sampling was concentrated in 3 of the most numerically-dominant vegetation types: Forested Swamp, Mixed Palm Swamp and Mauritia flexuosa-dominated Palm Swamp, with data collection occurring in both wet and dry seasons over a 2 year period from 2012-2014 (4 field campaigns in total). Overall mean CH4 fluxes from the Forested Swamp, Mixed Palm Swamp and Mauritia flexuosa-dominated Palm Swamp for the entire sampling period were 31.06 ± 3.42 mg CH4 - C m-2 d-1, 52.03 ± 16.05 mg CH4 - C m-2 d-1 and 36.68 ± 4.32 mg CH4 - C m-2 d-1. CH4 emissions, when averaged across the entire dataset, did not differ significantly among habitats. However, when CH4 emissions were aggregated by season, the Mixed Palm Swamp showed a significantly different emissions from all other

  17. Seasonality of Peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using the MIPAS-E instrument

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. P. Moore

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding onboard ENVISAT (MIPAS–E offers the opportunity to detect and spectrally resolve many atmospheric minor constituents affecting atmospheric chemistry. In this paper, we retrieve global, seasonal PAN volume mixing ratio (vmr data from MIPAS-E measurements made in January, March, August and October 2003 and present results from this scheme between approximately 300 and 150 hPa. The total error on a single PAN retrieval is better than 20% outside the tropics and better than 50% in the tropics where uncertainties in water vapor dominate the total error budget. We observe clear differences in the seasonal cycle of PAN in our data, linked closely to biomass burning regions and growing seasons. Highest Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude PAN vmrs were observed in August (300–600 pptv on average compared with the January and October data (less than 250 pptv on average. In the March 2003 data we observe highest PAN vmrs in the tropics with evidence of vmrs between 600 and 1000 pptv over Eastern Asia and over the Central Pacific at 333 hPa. The vertical distribution of PAN as a function of latitude (i.e. the zonal mean highlights the strong inter-annual variability of PAN in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS, most pronounced poleward of 40° N (up to 400 pptv over the year. The variability of PAN in the tropical UTLS is also significant and we derive a variability of up to 250 pptv in the averages between January and October 2003. These results represent the first seasonal observations of PAN in the UTLS.

  18. Integrating Seasonal Oscillations into Basel II Behavioural Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goran Klepac

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article introduces a new methodology of temporal influence measurement (seasonal oscillations, temporal patterns for behavioural scoring development purposes. The paper shows how significant temporal variables can be recognised and then integrated into the behavioural scoring models in order to improve model performance. Behavioural scoring models are integral parts of the Basel II standard on Internal Ratings-Based Approaches (IRB. The IRB approach much more precisely reflects individual risk bank profile.A solution of the problem of how to analyze and integrate macroeconomic and microeconomic factors represented in time series into behavioural scorecard models will be shown in the paper by using the REF II model.

  19. Seasonal variation in plasma lipids and lipases in young healthy humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cambras, Trinitat; Baena-Fustegueras, Juan A; Pardina, Eva; Ricart-Jané, David; Rossell, Joana; Díez-Noguera, Antoni; Peinado-Onsurbe, Julia

    2017-01-01

    Although intermediate metabolism is known to follow circadian rhythms, little information is available on the variation in lipase activities (lipoprotein and hepatic lipase, LPL and HL, respectively) and lipids throughout the year. In a cross-sectional study, we collected and analysed blood from 245 healthy students (110 men and 135 women) between 18 and 25 years old from the University of Barcelona throughout the annual campaign (March, May, October and December) of the blood bank. All subjects gave their written informed consent to participate. All blood samples were taken after breakfast at 8:00 and 11:00 am. Plasma glucose, total plasma protein, triacylglycerides (TAG), free fatty acids (FFA), free cholesterol and esterified cholesterol (FC and TC, respectively), cholesterol in low-density lipoproteins (cLDL), cholesterol in high-density lipoproteins (cHDL), phospholipids (PL) and lipase activities (LPL and HL) were determined. Cosinor analysis was used to evaluate the presence (significance of fit cosine curve to data and variance explained by rhythm) and characteristics of possible 12-month rhythms (acrophase, MESOR and amplitude). Statistically significant seasonal rhythms were detected for all the variables studied except proteins, with most of them peaking in the winter season. The lowest value for cLDL and the HL occurs in summer, while for cHDL and the LPL it is in winter. These findings demonstrate for the first time that in physiological conditions, plasma LPL and HL activities and lipids follow seasonal rhythms. The metabolic significance of this pattern is discussed.

  20. Seasonality of Kawasaki Disease: A Global Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Jane C.; Herzog, Lauren; Fabri, Olivia; Tremoulet, Adriana H.; Rodó, Xavier; Uehara, Ritei; Burgner, David; Bainto, Emelia; Pierce, David; Tyree, Mary; Cayan, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    Background Understanding global seasonal patterns of Kawasaki disease (KD) may provide insight into the etiology of this vasculitis that is now the most common cause of acquired heart disease in children in developed countries worldwide. Methods Data from 1970-2012 from 25 countries distributed over the globe were analyzed for seasonality. The number of KD cases from each location was normalized to minimize the influence of greater numbers from certain locations. The presence of seasonal variation of KD at the individual locations was evaluated using three different tests: time series modeling, spectral analysis, and a Monte Carlo technique. Results A defined seasonal structure emerged demonstrating broad coherence in fluctuations in KD cases across the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical latitudes. In the extra-tropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, KD case numbers were highest in January through March and approximately 40% higher than in the months of lowest case numbers from August through October. Datasets were much sparser in the tropics and the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics and statistical significance of the seasonality tests was weak, but suggested a maximum in May through June, with approximately 30% higher number of cases than in the least active months of February, March and October. The seasonal pattern in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics was consistent across the first and second halves of the sample period. Conclusion Using the first global KD time series, analysis of sites located in the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics revealed statistically significant and consistent seasonal fluctuations in KD case numbers with high numbers in winter and low numbers in late summer and fall. Neither the tropics nor the Southern Hemisphere extra-tropics registered a statistically significant aggregate seasonal cycle. These data suggest a seasonal exposure to a KD agent that operates over large geographic regions and is concentrated during winter