WorldWideScience

Sample records for significant prospective prediction

  1. Preoperative Metabolic Syndrome Is Predictive of Significant Gastric Cancer Mortality after Gastrectomy: The Fujian Prospective Investigation of Cancer (FIESTA Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Hu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Metabolic syndrome (MetS has been shown to be associated with an increased risk of gastric cancer. However, the impact of MetS on gastric cancer mortality remains largely unknown. Here, we prospectively examined the prediction of preoperative MetS for gastric cancer mortality by analyzing a subset of data from the ongoing Fujian prospective investigation of cancer (FIESTA study. This study was conducted among 3012 patients with gastric cancer who received radical gastrectomy between 2000 and 2010. The latest follow-up was completed in 2015. Blood/tissue specimens, demographic and clinicopathologic characteristics were collected at baseline. During 15-year follow-up, 1331 of 3012 patients died of gastric cancer. The median survival time (MST of patients with MetS was 31.3 months, which was significantly shorter than that of MetS-free patients (157.1 months. The coexistence of MetS before surgery was associated with a 2.3-fold increased risk for gastric cancer mortality (P < 0.001. The multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs were increased with invasion depth T1/T2 (HR = 2.78, P < 0.001, regional lymph node metastasis N0 (HR = 2.65, P < 0.001, positive distant metastasis (HR = 2.53, P < 0.001, TNM stage I/II (HR = 3.00, P < 0.001, intestinal type (HR = 2.96, P < 0.001, negative tumor embolus (HR = 2.34, P < 0.001, and tumor size ≤4.5 cm (HR = 2.49, P < 0.001. Further survival tree analysis confirmed the top splitting role of TNM stage, followed by MetS or hyperglycemia with remarkable discrimination ability. In this large cohort study, preoperative MetS, especially hyperglycemia, was predictive of significant gastric cancer mortality in patients with radical gastrectomy, especially for early stage of gastric cancer.

  2. Predicting significant torso trauma.

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    Nirula, Ram; Talmor, Daniel; Brasel, Karen

    2005-07-01

    Identification of motor vehicle crash (MVC) characteristics associated with thoracoabdominal injury would advance the development of automatic crash notification systems (ACNS) by improving triage and response times. Our objective was to determine the relationships between MVC characteristics and thoracoabdominal trauma to develop a torso injury probability model. Drivers involved in crashes from 1993 to 2001 within the National Automotive Sampling System were reviewed. Relationships between torso injury and MVC characteristics were assessed using multivariate logistic regression. Receiver operating characteristic curves were used to compare the model to current ACNS models. There were a total of 56,466 drivers. Age, ejection, braking, avoidance, velocity, restraints, passenger-side impact, rollover, and vehicle weight and type were associated with injury (p < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (83.9) was significantly greater than current ACNS models. We have developed a thoracoabdominal injury probability model that may improve patient triage when used with ACNS.

  3. Dim prospects for earthquake prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, Robert J.

    I was misquoted by C. Lomnitz's [1998] Forum letter (Eos, August 4, 1998, p. 373), which said: [I wonder whether Sasha Gusev [1998] actually believes that branding earthquake prediction a ‘proven nonscience’ [Geller, 1997a] is a paradigm for others to copy.”Readers are invited to verify for themselves that neither “proven nonscience” norv any similar phrase was used by Geller [1997a].

  4. Diagnostic value of thallium-201 myocardial perfusion IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction to predict clinically significant and insignificant fractional flow reserve: A single-center prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Haruki; Takahashi, Teruyuki; Ohashi, Norihiko; Tanaka, Koichi; Okada, Takenori; Kihara, Yasuki

    2017-12-01

    The aim of this study was to clarify the predictive value of fractional flow reserve (FFR) determined by myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) using thallium (Tl)-201 IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction (CT-AC) for patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD).We assessed 212 angiographically identified diseased vessels using adenosine-stress Tl-201 MPI-IQ-SPECT/CT in 84 consecutive, prospectively identified patients with stable CAD. We compared the FFR in 136 of the 212 diseased vessels using visual semiquantitative interpretations of corresponding territories on MPI-IQ-SPECT images without and with CT-AC.FFR inversely correlated most accurately with regional summed difference scores (rSDS) in images without and with CT-AC (r = -0.584 and r = -0.568, respectively, both P system can predict FFR at an optimal cut-off of reserved.

  5. The Real World Significance of Performance Prediction

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    Pardos, Zachary A.; Wang, Qing Yang; Trivedi, Shubhendu

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, the educational data mining and user modeling communities have been aggressively introducing models for predicting student performance on external measures such as standardized tests as well as within-tutor performance. While these models have brought statistically reliable improvement to performance prediction, the real world…

  6. Features and prospects of juridical predicting of entrepreneurial activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalya V. Rubtsova

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective to identify characteristics and prospects of predicting the business activity. Methods historical sociological logical systematicstructural formallegal comparativelegal legal modeling method. Results in article suggests the legal definition of prediction of business activity as a scientific and practical study aimed at the determination of the future state and prospects of development of business activity consisting of the evaluation of legal regulation and analysis of the prospectsof further socioeconomic development which aims to select the optimal solution for the further development of entrepreneurship through legal regulators. The work proves the necessity of achieving a balanced legal regulation of social relations by changing the legislation in the field of business agreements investment and innovation. Scientific novelty the article for the first time formulates the concept characteristics and features of legal prediction of business activity substantiates the impact of predicting on the development of legal regulation of social relations. Practical significance the main provisions and conclusions of the article can be used in research and teaching while considering the issues of predicting both the socioeconomic processes in general and business activity in particular.

  7. Early adolescent symptoms of social phobia prospectively predict alcohol use.

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    Dahne, Jennifer; Banducci, Anne N; Kurdziel, Gretchen; MacPherson, Laura

    2014-11-01

    The current study examined whether social phobia (SP) symptoms in early adolescence prospectively predicted alcohol use through middle adolescence in a community sample of youth. Data from an ongoing longitudinal study (N = 277) of mechanisms of HIV-related risk behaviors in youth were used to assess the extent to which SP symptoms in early adolescence (mean [SD] age = 11.00 years [0.81]) would predict alcohol use across five annual assessment waves. Adolescents completed measures of SP symptoms, depressive symptoms, and alcohol use at each wave. Higher SP symptoms at baseline predicted higher average odds of alcohol consumption during subsequent waves but did not significantly predict an increase in the odds of alcohol use as a function of time. Within a lagged model, SP symptoms measured at a prior assessment point (1 year earlier) predicted greater odds of drinking alcohol at the following assessment point. Importantly, alcohol use did not significantly predict SP symptoms over time. These results suggest that early SP symptoms are an important risk factor for increased odds of subsequent alcohol use. The present findings highlight that elevated SP symptoms place adolescents at risk for early alcohol use. Early interventions targeting SP symptoms may be crucial for the prevention of problematic alcohol use in early to mid-adolescence. Implications for prevention and treatment approaches are discussed.

  8. Rumination prospectively predicts executive functioning impairments in adolescents.

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    Connolly, Samantha L; Wagner, Clara A; Shapero, Benjamin G; Pendergast, Laura L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2014-03-01

    The current study tested the resource allocation hypothesis, examining whether baseline rumination or depressive symptom levels prospectively predicted deficits in executive functioning in an adolescent sample. The alternative to this hypothesis was also evaluated by testing whether lower initial levels of executive functioning predicted increases in rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. A community sample of 200 adolescents (ages 12-13) completed measures of depressive symptoms, rumination, and executive functioning at baseline and at a follow-up session approximately 15 months later. Adolescents with higher levels of baseline rumination displayed decreases in selective attention and attentional switching at follow-up. Rumination did not predict changes in working memory or sustained and divided attention. Depressive symptoms were not found to predict significant changes in executive functioning scores at follow-up. Baseline executive functioning was not associated with change in rumination or depression over time. Findings partially support the resource allocation hypothesis that engaging in ruminative thoughts consumes cognitive resources that would otherwise be allocated towards difficult tests of executive functioning. Support was not found for the alternative hypothesis that lower levels of initial executive functioning would predict increased rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Our study is the first to find support for the resource allocation hypothesis using a longitudinal design and an adolescent sample. Findings highlight the potentially detrimental effects of rumination on executive functioning during early adolescence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Mobile Phone-Based Mood Ratings Prospectively Predict Psychotherapy Attendance.

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    Bruehlman-Senecal, Emma; Aguilera, Adrian; Schueller, Stephen M

    2017-09-01

    Psychotherapy nonattendance is a costly and pervasive problem. While prior research has identified stable patient-level predictors of attendance, far less is known about dynamic (i.e., time-varying) factors. Identifying dynamic predictors can clarify how clinical states relate to psychotherapy attendance and inform effective "just-in-time" interventions to promote attendance. The present study examines whether daily mood, as measured by responses to automated mobile phone-based text messages, prospectively predicts attendance in group cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) for depression. Fifty-six Spanish-speaking Latino patients with elevated depressive symptoms (46 women, mean age=50.92years, SD=10.90years), enrolled in a manualized program of group CBT, received daily automated mood-monitoring text messages. Patients' daily mood ratings, message response rate, and delay in responding were recorded. Patients' self-reported mood the day prior to a scheduled psychotherapy session significantly predicted attendance, even after controlling for patients' prior attendance history and age (OR=1.33, 95% CI [1.04, 1.70], p=.02). Positive mood corresponded to a greater likelihood of attendance. Our results demonstrate the clinical utility of automated mood-monitoring text messages in predicting attendance. These results underscore the value of text messaging, and other mobile technologies, as adjuncts to psychotherapy. Future work should explore the use of such monitoring to guide interventions to increase attendance, and ultimately the efficacy of psychotherapy. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  10. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

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    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

  11. Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

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    Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

    2018-03-01

    Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

  12. Significance of prior percutaneous revascularisation in patients with acute coronary syndromes: insights from the prospective PROSPECT registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iñiguez, Andrés; Brener, Sorin J; Jiménez, Victor A; Maehara, Akiko; Mintz, Gary S; Xu, Ke; Weisz, Giora; Lansky, Alexandra J; De Bruyne, Bernard; Serruys, Patrick W; Stone, Gregg W

    2016-04-20

    Prior percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is increasingly encountered in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients, with uncertain significance. We sought to evaluate the impact of prior PCI in ACS patients. Patients with ACS enrolled in the prospective PROSPECT registry underwent three-vessel intravascular ultrasound and virtual histology evaluation after successful PCI of the culprit lesion(s). We identified patients with prior PCI (>6 months before index ACS) and compared their outcomes to those without prior PCI. Time-to-event for major adverse cardiac events (MACE) was estimated up to three years, and the independent association between prior PCI and MACE was evaluated in a multivariable model. Among 696 patients enrolled, 77 (11.1%) had prior PCI. They were older and more likely to have prior myocardial infarction, chronic kidney disease, and congestive heart failure. At three years, patients with prior PCI had significantly higher rates of cardiac death, rehospitalisation for worsening angina, and MACE (adjusted HR=1.73 [95% CI: 1.09, 2.75], p=0.02), independent of other comorbidities and intravascular ultrasound findings. Prior PCI was noted in over 10% of patients with ACS and was associated with higher mortality and morbidity, independent of other comorbidities. Prior PCI should be considered a high-risk feature when evaluating ACS patients.

  13. Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory

    OpenAIRE

    Cona, Giorgia; Arcara, Giorgio; Tarantino, Vincenza; Bisiacchi, Patrizia S.

    2015-01-01

    Prospective memory (PM) represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signaled by a warning...

  14. Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System.

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    Doyle, Andy; Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

    2014-12-01

    Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years.

  15. Artificial neural networks to predict presence of significant pathology in patients presenting to routine colorectal clinics.

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    Maslekar, S; Gardiner, A B; Monson, J R T; Duthie, G S

    2010-12-01

    Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are computer programs used to identify complex relations within data. Routine predictions of presence of colorectal pathology based on population statistics have little meaning for individual patient. This results in large number of unnecessary lower gastrointestinal endoscopies (LGEs - colonoscopies and flexible sigmoidoscopies). We aimed to develop a neural network algorithm that can accurately predict presence of significant pathology in patients attending routine outpatient clinics for gastrointestinal symptoms. Ethics approval was obtained and the study was monitored according to International Committee on Harmonisation - Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP) standards. Three-hundred patients undergoing LGE prospectively completed a specifically developed questionnaire, which included 40 variables based on clinical symptoms, signs, past- and family history. Complete data sets of 100 patients were used to train the ANN; the remaining data was used for internal validation. The primary output used was positive finding on LGE, including polyps, cancer, diverticular disease or colitis. For external validation, the ANN was applied to data from 50 patients in primary care and also compared with the predictions of four clinicians. Clear correlation between actual data value and ANN predictions were found (r = 0.931; P = 0.0001). The predictive accuracy of ANN was 95% in training group and 90% (95% CI 84-96) in the internal validation set and this was significantly higher than the clinical accuracy (75%). ANN also showed high accuracy in the external validation group (89%). Artificial neural networks offer the possibility of personal prediction of outcome for individual patients presenting in clinics with colorectal symptoms, making it possible to make more appropriate requests for lower gastrointestinal endoscopy. © 2010 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2010 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  16. Predictive Maintenance (PdM) Centralization for Significant Energy Savings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Dale

    2010-09-15

    Cost effective predictive maintenance (PdM) technologies and basic energy calculations can mine energy savings form processes or maintenance activities. Centralizing and packaging this information correctly empowers facility maintenance and reliability professionals to build financial justification and support for strategies and personnel to weather global economic downturns and competition. Attendees will learn how to: Systematically build a 'pilot project' for applying PdM and tracking systems; Break down a typical electrical bill to calculate energy savings; Use return on investment (ROI) calculations to identify the best and highest value options, strategies and tips for substantiating your energy reduction maintenance strategies.

  17. Early signs that predict later haemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus.

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    Engür, Defne; Deveci, Murat; Türkmen, Münevver K

    2016-03-01

    Our aim was to determine the optimal cut-off values, sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic power of 12 echocardiographic parameters on the second day of life to predict subsequent ductal patency. We evaluated preterm infants, born at ⩽32 weeks of gestation, starting on their second day of life, and they were evaluated every other day until ductal closure or until there were clinical signs of re-opening. We measured transductal diameter; pulmonary arterial diastolic flow; retrograde aortic diastolic flow; pulsatility index of the left pulmonary artery and descending aorta; left atrium and ventricle/aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; mitral early/late diastolic flow; and superior caval vein diameter and flow as well as performed receiver operating curve analysis. Transductal diameter (>1.5 mm); pulmonary arterial diastolic flow (>25.6 cm/second); presence of retrograde aortic diastolic flow; ductal diameter by body weight (>1.07 mm/kg); left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index (⩽0.71); and left ventricle to aortic root ratio (>2.2) displayed high sensitivity and specificity (p0.9). Parameters with moderate sensitivity and specificity were as follows: left atrial to aortic root ratio; left ventricular output; left ventricular flow velocity time integral; and mitral early/late diastolic flow ratio (p0.05) had low diagnostic value. Left pulmonary arterial pulsatility index, left ventricle/aortic root ratio, and ductal diameter by body weight are useful adjuncts offering a broader outlook for predicting ductal patency.

  18. Variables that predict academic procrastination behavior in prospective primary school teachers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asuman Seda SARACALOĞLU

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to examine the variables predicting academic procrastination behavior of prospective primary school teachers and is conducted using the correlational survey model. The study group is composed of 294 undergraduate students studying primary school teaching programs in faculties of education at Adnan Menderes, Pamukkale, and Muğla Sıtkı Koçman Universities in Turkey. The data collection instruments used were the Procrastination Assessment Scale Students (PASS, Academic Self-Efficacy Scale (ASES, and Academic Motivation Scale (AMS. While analyzing the gathered data, descriptive analysis techniques were utilized. Moreover, while analyzing the data, power of variables namely reasons of academic procrastination, academic motivation, and academic efficacy to predict prospective primary school teachers’ academic procrastination tendencies were tested. For that purpose, stepwise regression analysis was employed. It was found that nearly half of the prospective primary school teachers displayed no academic procrastination behavior. Participants’ reasons for procrastination were fear of failure, laziness, taking risks, and rebellion against control. An average level significant correlation was found between participants’ academic procrastination and other variables. As a result, it was identified that prospective primary school teachers had less academic procrastination than reported in literature and laziness, fear of failure, academic motivation predicted academic procrastination.

  19. Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study

    OpenAIRE

    Chu Annie TW; Bonanno George A; Ho Judy WC; Ho Samuel MY; Chan Emily MS

    2010-01-01

    Abstract Background - Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC) had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. Methods - A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer R...

  20. Personality traits prospectively predict verbal fluency in a lifespan sample.

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    Sutin, Angelina R; Terracciano, Antonio; Kitner-Triolo, Melissa H; Uda, Manuela; Schlessinger, David; Zonderman, Alan B

    2011-12-01

    In a community-dwelling sample (N = 4,790; age range 14-94), we examined whether personality traits prospectively predicted performance on a verbal fluency task. Open, extraverted, and emotionally stable participants had better verbal fluency. At the facet level, dispositionally happy and self-disciplined participants retrieved more words; those prone to anxiety and depression and those who were deliberative retrieved fewer words. Education moderated the association between conscientiousness and fluency such that participants with lower education performed better on the fluency task if they were also conscientious. Age was not a moderator at the domain level, indicating that the personality-fluency associations were consistent across the life span. A disposition toward emotional vulnerability and being less open, less happy, and undisciplined may be detrimental to cognitive performance.

  1. Random forest predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity with small number of prospects and data with missing values in Abra (Philippines)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carranza, Emmanuel John M.; Laborte, Alice G.

    2015-01-01

    Machine learning methods that have been used in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity (e.g., artificial neural networks) invariably require large number of training prospect/locations and are unable to handle missing values in certain evidential data. The Random Forests (RF) algorithm, which is a machine learning method, has recently been applied to data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity, and so it is instructive to further study its efficacy in this particular field. This case study, carried out using data from Abra (Philippines), examines (a) if RF modeling can be used for data-driven modeling of mineral prospectivity in areas with a few (i.e., individual layers of evidential data. Furthermore, RF modeling can handle missing values in evidential data through an RF-based imputation technique whereas in WofE modeling values are simply represented by zero weights. Therefore, the RF algorithm is potentially more useful than existing methods that are currently used for data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity. In particular, it is not a purely black-box method like artificial neural networks in the context of data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity. However, further testing of the method in other areas with a few mineral occurrences is needed to fully investigate its usefulness in data-driven predictive modeling of mineral prospectivity.

  2. Ultrasound cervical length in predicting preterm birth: Prospective study

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    Achour Radhouane

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background Preterm birth is a leading cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality and represents a major public health problem. It is associated with a 15–20 per cent mortality rate and remains responsible for 75 per cent of perinatal deaths in foetuses without anomalies. Aims The aim of this study was to evaluate the importance of cervical length measured in the first trimester (11–14 Weeks of amenorrhea “WA” and the second trimester (20–24 Weeks of amenorrhea” WA” in an asymptomatic population of singleton pregnancies to assess the risk of spontaneous preterm birth compared to the digital assessment. Methods We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study involving 117 asymptomatic women with singleton pregnancies between January and December 2015. Results In our study, the clinical examination had a low positive predictive value and a low sensibility for screening women at risk of preterm delivery. Cervical length less than 35mm between 12–14WA and 30mm between 22–24WA predicts the occurrence of preterm birth with a high sensitivity (Se, and specificity (Sp. Conclusion We conclude that ultrasound screening of preterm delivery is now highly recommended.

  3. Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients: CoCoNet study.

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    Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

    2016-06-01

    There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings.

  4. Significant interarm blood pressure difference predicts cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Su-A; Kim, Jang Young; Park, Jeong Bae

    2016-01-01

    Abstract There has been a rising interest in interarm blood pressure difference (IAD), due to its relationship with peripheral arterial disease and its possible relationship with cardiovascular disease. This study aimed to characterize hypertensive patients with a significant IAD in relation to cardiovascular risk. A total of 3699 patients (mean age, 61 ± 11 years) were prospectively enrolled in the study. Blood pressure (BP) was measured simultaneously in both arms 3 times using an automated cuff-oscillometric device. IAD was defined as the absolute difference in averaged BPs between the left and right arm, and an IAD ≥ 10 mm Hg was considered to be significant. The Framingham risk score was used to calculate the 10-year cardiovascular risk. The mean systolic IAD (sIAD) was 4.3 ± 4.1 mm Hg, and 285 (7.7%) patients showed significant sIAD. Patients with significant sIAD showed larger body mass index (P < 0.001), greater systolic BP (P = 0.050), more coronary artery disease (relative risk = 1.356, P = 0.034), and more cerebrovascular disease (relative risk = 1.521, P = 0.072). The mean 10-year cardiovascular risk was 9.3 ± 7.7%. By multiple regression, sIAD was significantly but weakly correlated with the 10-year cardiovascular risk (β = 0.135, P = 0.008). Patients with significant sIAD showed a higher prevalence of coronary artery disease, as well as an increase in 10-year cardiovascular risk. Therefore, accurate measurements of sIAD may serve as a simple and cost-effective tool for predicting cardiovascular risk in clinical settings. PMID:27310982

  5. Investigation of a breathing surrogate prediction algorithm for prospective pulmonary gating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, Benjamin M.; Low, Daniel A.; Zhao Tianyu; Wuenschel, Sara; Lu, Wei; Lamb, James M.; Mutic, Sasa; Bradley, Jeffrey D.; El Naqa, Issam

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: A major challenge of four dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) in treatment planning and delivery has been the lack of respiration amplitude and phase reproducibility during image acquisition. The implementation of a prospective gating algorithm would ensure that images would be acquired only during user-specified breathing phases. This study describes the development and testing of an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model for human respiratory phase prediction under quiet respiration conditions. Methods: A total of 47 4DCT patient datasets and synchronized respiration records was utilized in this study. Three datasets were used in model development and were removed from further evaluation of the ARMA model. The remaining 44 patient datasets were evaluated with the ARMA model for prediction time steps from 50 to 1000 ms in increments of 50 and 100 ms. Thirty-five of these datasets were further used to provide a comparison between the proposed ARMA model and a commercial algorithm with a prediction time step of 240 ms. Results: The optimal number of parameters for the ARMA model was based on three datasets reserved for model development. Prediction error was found to increase as the prediction time step increased. The minimum prediction time step required for prospective gating was selected to be half of the gantry rotation period. The maximum prediction time step with a conservative 95% confidence criterion was found to be 0.3 s. The ARMA model predicted peak inhalation and peak exhalation phases significantly better than the commercial algorithm. Furthermore, the commercial algorithm had numerous instances of missed breath cycles and falsely predicted breath cycles, while the proposed model did not have these errors. Conclusions: An ARMA model has been successfully applied to predict human respiratory phase occurrence. For a typical CT scanner gantry rotation period of 0.4 s (0.2 s prediction time step), the absolute error was relatively small, 0

  6. A nuclear-free zone for the Southwest Pacific: prospects and significance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fry, G.

    1983-01-01

    The Australian Government is currently seeking to promote the concept of a nuclear-free zone for the Southwest Pacific. This paper explores three fundamental questions concerning the Australian proposal. Firstly, what would be the boundaries of such a zone and what does 'nuclear-free' mean in this context Secondly, what are the prospects for agreement on the establishment of a zone. Could regional states and nuclear powers agree to what is being proposed. And finally, what would be the significance, in arms control terms, were such an agreement to be signed. Would it, in fact, achieve anything. In an approach to these questions, the author surveys the strategic situation in the region, the level and pattern of nuclear involvement, past experience with zone proposals, and the current positions of various regional states and nuclear weapons powers on this question. He concludes that the necessary basis for agreement does exist and that modest arms control objectives could be served by the establishment of such a zone

  7. Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying Prospective Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giorgia eCona

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Prospective memory (PM represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signalled by a warning cue for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioural and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views – the ‘Dynamic Multiprocess Framework’ and the ‘Attention to Delayed Intention’ (AtoDI model – confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

  8. Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cona, Giorgia; Arcara, Giorgio; Tarantino, Vincenza; Bisiacchi, Patrizia S

    2015-01-01

    Prospective memory (PM) represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signaled by a warning cue) for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioral and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views-the "Dynamic Multiprocess Framework" and the "Attention to Delayed Intention" (AtoDI) model-confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

  9. Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altgassen, Mareike; Vetter, Nora C; Phillips, Louise H; Akgün, Canan; Kliegel, Matthias

    2014-11-01

    Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether theory of mind and executive control processes (specifically updating, switching, and inhibition) predict prospective memory development across adolescence. In total, 42 adolescents and 41 young adults participated in this study. Young adults outperformed adolescents on tasks of prospective memory, theory of mind, and executive functions. Switching and theory of mind predicted prospective memory performance in adolescents. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Bilirubin nomogram for prediction of significant hyperbilirubinemia in north Indian neonates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, Umesh; Chawla, Deepak; Kaur, Saranjit; Jain, Suksham

    2013-04-01

    (i) To construct hour-specific serum total bilirubin (STB) nomogram in neonates born at =35 weeks of gestation; (ii)To evaluate efficacy of pre-discharge bilirubin measurement in predicting hyperbilirubinemia needing treatment. Diagnostic test performance in a prospective cohort study. Teaching hospital in Northern India. Healthy neonates with gestation =35 weeks or birth weight =2000 g. Serum total bilirubin was measured in all enrolled neonates at 24 ± 6, 72-96 and 96-144 h of postnatal age and when indicated clinically. Neonates were followed up during hospital stay and after discharge till completion of 7th postnatal day. Key outcome was significant hyperbilirubinemia (SHB) defined as need of phototherapy based on modified American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) guidelines. In neonates born at 38 or more weeks of gestation middle line and in neonates born at 37 or less completed weeks of gestation, lower line of phototherapy thresholds were used to initiate phototherapy. For construction of nomogram, STB values were clubbed in six-hour epochs (age ± 3 hours) for postnatal age up to 48 h and twelve-hour epochs (age ± 6 hours) for age beyond 48 h. Predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and likelihood ratio, by plotting receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve and calculating c-statistic. 997 neonates (birth weight: 2627 ± 536 g, gestation: 37.8 ± 1.5 weeks) were enrolled, of which 931 completed followup. Among enrolled neonates 344 (34.5%) were low birth weight. Rate of exclusive breastfeeding during hospital stay was more than 80%. Bilirubin nomogram was constructed using 40th, 75th and 95th percentile values of hour-specific bilirubin. Pre-discharge STB of =95th percentile was assigned to be in high-risk zone, between 75th and 94th centile in upper-intermediate risk zone, between 40th and 74th centile in lower-intermediate risk zone and below 40th

  11. Stressful Life Events Predict Eating Disorder Relapse Following Remission: Six-Year Prospective Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Carlos M.; Pagano, Maria E.; Stout, Robert L.; Markowitz, John C.; Ansell, Emily B.; Pinto, Anthony; Zanarini, Mary C.; Yen, Shirley; Skodol, Andrew E.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To examine prospectively the natural course of bulimia nervosa (BN) and eating disorder not-otherwise-specified (EDNOS) and test for the effects of stressful life events (SLE) on relapse after remission from these eating disorders. Method 117 female patients with BN (N = 35) or EDNOS (N = 82) were prospectively followed for 72 months using structured interviews performed at baseline, 6- and 12-months, and then yearly thereafter. ED were assessed with the structured clinical interview for DSM-IV, and monitored over time with the longitudinal interval follow-up evaluation. Personality disorders were assessed with the diagnostic interview for DSM-IV-personality-disorders, and monitored over time with the follow-along-version. The occurrence and specific timing of SLE were assessed with the life events assessment interview. Cox proportional-hazard-regression-analyses tested associations between time-varying levels of SLE and ED relapse, controlling for comorbid psychiatric disorders, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status. Results ED relapse probability was 43%; BN and EDNOS did not differ in time to relapse. Negative SLE significantly predicted ED relapse; elevated work and social stressors were significant predictors. Psychiatric comorbidity, ED duration, and time-varying personality-disorder status were not significant predictors. Discussion Higher work and social stress represent significant warning signs for triggering relapse for women with remitted BN and EDNOS. PMID:21448971

  12. Examining the specific dimensions of distress tolerance that prospectively predict perceived stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardeen, Joseph R; Fergus, Thomas A; Orcutt, Holly K

    2017-04-01

    We examined five dimensions of distress tolerance (i.e. uncertainty, ambiguity, frustration, negative emotion, physical discomfort) as prospective predictors of perceived stress. Undergraduate students (N = 135) completed self-report questionnaires over the course of two assessment sessions (T1 and T2). Results of a linear regression in which the five dimensions of distress tolerance and covariates (i.e. T1 perceived stress, duration between T1 and T2) served as predictor variables and T2 perceived stress served as the outcome variable showed that intolerance of uncertainty was the only dimension of distress tolerance to predict T2 perceived stress. To better understand this prospective association, we conducted a post hoc analysis simultaneously regressing two subdimensions of intolerance of uncertainty on T2 perceived stress. The subdimension representing beliefs that "uncertainty has negative behavioral and self-referent implications" significantly predicted T2 perceived stress, while the subdimension indicating that "uncertainty is unfair and spoils everything" did not. Results support a growing body of research suggesting intolerance of uncertainty as a risk factor for a wide variety of maladaptive psychological outcomes. Clinical implications will be discussed.

  13. Elevated left mid-frontal cortical activity prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nusslock, Robin; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Alloy, Lauren B.; Urosevic, Snezana; Goldstein, Kim; Abramson, Lyn Y.

    2013-01-01

    Bipolar disorder is characterized by a hypersensitivity to reward-relevant cues and a propensity to experience an excessive increase in approach-related affect, which may be reflected in hypo/manic symptoms. The present study examined the relationship between relative left-frontal electroencephalographic (EEG) activity, a proposed neurophysiological index of approach-system sensitivity and approach/reward-related affect, and bipolar course and state-related variables. Fifty-eight individuals with cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder and 59 healthy control participants with no affective psychopathology completed resting EEG recordings. Alpha power was obtained and asymmetry indices computed for homologous electrodes. Bipolar spectrum participants were classified as being in a major/minor depressive episode, a hypomanic episode, or a euthymic/remitted state at EEG recording. Participants were then followed prospectively for an average 4.7 year follow-up period with diagnostic interview assessments every four-months. Sixteen bipolar spectrum participants converted to bipolar I disorder during follow-up. Consistent with hypotheses, elevated relative left-frontal EEG activity at baseline 1) prospectively predicted a greater likelihood of converting from cyclothymia or bipolar II disorder to bipolar I disorder over the 4.7 year follow-up period, 2) was associated with an earlier age-of-onset of first bipolar spectrum episode, and 3) was significantly elevated in bipolar spectrum individuals in a hypomanic episode at EEG recording. This is the first study to identify a neurophysiological marker that prospectively predicts conversion to bipolar I disorder. The fact that unipolar depression is characterized by decreased relative left-frontal EEG activity suggests that unipolar depression and vulnerability to hypo/mania may be characterized by different profiles of frontal EEG asymmetry. PMID:22775582

  14. Prospective detection of large prediction errors: a hypothesis testing approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruan, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Real-time motion management is important in radiotherapy. In addition to effective monitoring schemes, prediction is required to compensate for system latency, so that treatment can be synchronized with tumor motion. However, it is difficult to predict tumor motion at all times, and it is critical to determine when large prediction errors may occur. Such information can be used to pause the treatment beam or adjust monitoring/prediction schemes. In this study, we propose a hypothesis testing approach for detecting instants corresponding to potentially large prediction errors in real time. We treat the future tumor location as a random variable, and obtain its empirical probability distribution with the kernel density estimation-based method. Under the null hypothesis, the model probability is assumed to be a concentrated Gaussian centered at the prediction output. Under the alternative hypothesis, the model distribution is assumed to be non-informative uniform, which reflects the situation that the future position cannot be inferred reliably. We derive the likelihood ratio test (LRT) for this hypothesis testing problem and show that with the method of moments for estimating the null hypothesis Gaussian parameters, the LRT reduces to a simple test on the empirical variance of the predictive random variable. This conforms to the intuition to expect a (potentially) large prediction error when the estimate is associated with high uncertainty, and to expect an accurate prediction when the uncertainty level is low. We tested the proposed method on patient-derived respiratory traces. The 'ground-truth' prediction error was evaluated by comparing the prediction values with retrospective observations, and the large prediction regions were subsequently delineated by thresholding the prediction errors. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to describe the performance of the proposed hypothesis testing method. Clinical implication was represented by miss

  15. Prediction of immediate postoperative pain using the analgesia/nociception index: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boselli, E; Bouvet, L; Bégou, G; Dabouz, R; Davidson, J; Deloste, J-Y; Rahali, N; Zadam, A; Allaouchiche, B

    2014-04-01

    The analgesia/nociception index (ANI) is derived from heart rate variability, ranging from 0 (maximal nociception) to 100 (maximal analgesia), to reflect the analgesia/nociception balance during general anaesthesia. This should be correlated with immediate postoperative pain in the post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of ANI measured at arousal from general anaesthesia to predict immediate postoperative pain on arrival in PACU. Two hundred patients undergoing ear, nose, and throat or lower limb orthopaedic surgery with general anaesthesia using an inhalational agent and remifentanil were included in this prospective observational study. The ANI was measured immediately before tracheal extubation and pain intensity was assessed within 10 min of arrival in PACU using a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). The relationship between ANI and NRS was assessed using linear regression. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the performance of ANI to predict NRS>3. A negative linear relationship was observed between ANI immediately before extubation and NRS on arrival in PACU. Using a threshold of 3 were both 86% with 92% negative predictive value, corresponding to an area under the ROC curve of 0.89. The measurement of ANI immediately before extubation after inhalation-remifentanil anaesthesia was significantly associated with pain intensity on arrival in PACU. The performance of ANI for the prediction of immediate postoperative pain is good and may assist physicians in optimizing acute pain management. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01796249.

  16. Prediction of traffic fatalities and prospects for mobility becoming ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    edge transfer from developed countries. Four prediction ...... also depends on the average vehicle speed by the dependence of crash avoidance (reaction time, braking .... and political priority of road safety actions. ..... It is a man-made problem.

  17. What Factors are Predictive of Patient-reported Outcomes? A Prospective Study of 337 Shoulder Arthroplasties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsen, Frederick A; Russ, Stacy M; Vu, Phuong T; Hsu, Jason E; Lucas, Robert M; Comstock, Bryan A

    2016-11-01

    Although shoulder arthroplasties generally are effective in improving patients' comfort and function, the results are variable for reasons that are not well understood. We posed two questions: (1) What factors are associated with better 2-year outcomes after shoulder arthroplasty? (2) What are the sensitivities, specificities, and positive and negative predictive values of a multivariate predictive model for better outcome? Three hundred thirty-nine patients having a shoulder arthroplasty (hemiarthroplasty, arthroplasty for cuff tear arthropathy, ream and run arthroplasty, total shoulder or reverse total shoulder arthroplasty) between August 24, 2010 and December 31, 2012 consented to participate in this prospective study. Two patients were excluded because they were missing baseline variables. Forty-three patients were missing 2-year data. Univariate and multivariate analyses determined the relationship of baseline patient, shoulder, and surgical characteristics to a "better" outcome, defined as an improvement of at least 30% of the maximal possible improvement in the Simple Shoulder Test. The results were used to develop a predictive model, the accuracy of which was tested using a 10-fold cross-validation. After controlling for potentially relevant confounding variables, the multivariate analysis showed that the factors significantly associated with better outcomes were American Society of Anesthesiologists Class I (odds ratio [OR], 1.94; 95% CI, 1.03-3.65; p = 0.041), shoulder problem not related to work (OR, 5.36; 95% CI, 2.15-13.37; p factors listed above. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve generated from the cross-validated enhanced predictive model was 0.79 (generally values of 0.7 to 0.8 are considered fair and values of 0.8 to 0.9 are considered good). The false-positive fraction and the true-positive fraction depended on the cutoff probability selected (ie, the selected probability above which the prediction would be classified as

  18. Spouse's subjective social status predicts older adults' prospective cognitive functioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fan; Fung, Helene; Kwok, Timothy

    2017-12-06

    The current study aims to investigate the association between subjective social status (SSS) and prospective cognitive functioning of older adults and their spouses, and to explore the potential mediating roles of health habits and physical activities in this association. Using the longitudinal data of 512 pairs of community-dwelling older couples aged 65-91 years (M = 72.2 ± 4.6), we tested the effects of SSS in cognitive functioning using an Actor-Partner Interdependence Model. SSS was measured by a self-anchoring social ladder, and cognitive functioning was measured by the Mini-Mental State Examination at baseline and 4-year follow-up. Socioeconomic status (i.e. education) was tested as a moderator, and physical activity (measured by the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly) as well as health habits (i.e. tobacco and alcohol consumption) were included as potential mediators. A partner effect of SSS was found only in the low-education group, in which the wife's higher level of SSS in the community was associated with the husband's better cognitive functioning in the follow-up. A small proportion of this effect was found to be partially mediated by participation in housework, such that the wife's higher SSS was associated with the husband's increased housework activity, which was related to higher prospective cognitive functioning. By examining the dyadic effects of SSS with a longitudinal design, our findings extended the understanding on how subjective social status influenced older couples' cognitive health, and provided evidence-based insights for future studies on cognitive health in later life.

  19. Falls prediction in elderly people : A 1-year prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Swanenburg, Jaap; de Bruin, Eling D.; Uebelhart, Daniel; Mulder, Theo

    The aim of the present study was to determine whether force plate variables in single- and dual-task situations are able to predict the risk of multiple falls in a community-dwelling elderly population. Two hundred and seventy elderly persons (225 females, 45 males; age, 73 7 years) performed

  20. Model training across multiple breeding cycles significantly improves genomic prediction accuracy in rye (Secale cereale L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auinger, Hans-Jürgen; Schönleben, Manfred; Lehermeier, Christina; Schmidt, Malthe; Korzun, Viktor; Geiger, Hartwig H; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Gordillo, Andres; Wilde, Peer; Bauer, Eva; Schön, Chris-Carolin

    2016-11-01

    Genomic prediction accuracy can be significantly increased by model calibration across multiple breeding cycles as long as selection cycles are connected by common ancestors. In hybrid rye breeding, application of genome-based prediction is expected to increase selection gain because of long selection cycles in population improvement and development of hybrid components. Essentially two prediction scenarios arise: (1) prediction of the genetic value of lines from the same breeding cycle in which model training is performed and (2) prediction of lines from subsequent cycles. It is the latter from which a reduction in cycle length and consequently the strongest impact on selection gain is expected. We empirically investigated genome-based prediction of grain yield, plant height and thousand kernel weight within and across four selection cycles of a hybrid rye breeding program. Prediction performance was assessed using genomic and pedigree-based best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP and PBLUP). A total of 1040 S 2 lines were genotyped with 16 k SNPs and each year testcrosses of 260 S 2 lines were phenotyped in seven or eight locations. The performance gap between GBLUP and PBLUP increased significantly for all traits when model calibration was performed on aggregated data from several cycles. Prediction accuracies obtained from cross-validation were in the order of 0.70 for all traits when data from all cycles (N CS  = 832) were used for model training and exceeded within-cycle accuracies in all cases. As long as selection cycles are connected by a sufficient number of common ancestors and prediction accuracy has not reached a plateau when increasing sample size, aggregating data from several preceding cycles is recommended for predicting genetic values in subsequent cycles despite decreasing relatedness over time.

  1. The characteristics of original geochemical halo in fault zone and its prospecting significance in Xiangyangping uranium deposit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ouyang Pingning; Huang Manxiang; Liu Xinyang; Chen Yue; Xiao Jianjun

    2012-01-01

    Xiangyangping uranium deposit is a hydrothermal filling deposit controlled by faults. The axial zonation of original element along the fault is sequence of Ni-Rb-Bi-Sn-Cu-W-Hg→As-U-Sb-Mo→Sr-Zn which shows the characteristics of superimposed halos and multiphase mineralization. The distribution characteristics of original halos along structure suggests that uranium mineralization may possess multi-enrichment zones along axial and strata tend. These characteristics are of prospecting significance. (authors)

  2. The significance of zircon characteristic and its uranium concentration in evaluation of uranium metallogenetic prospect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Yaosong; Zhu Jiechen; Xia Yuliang

    1992-02-01

    Zircon characteristic and its relation to uranium metallogenetic process have been studied on the basis of physics properties and chemical compositions. It is indicated that the colour of zircon crystal is related to uranium concentration; on the basis of method of zircon population type of Pupin J.P., the sectional plan of zircon population type has been designed, from which result that zircon population type of uranium-producing rock body is distributed mainly in second section, secondly in fourth section; U in zircon presents synchronous increase trend with Th, Hf and Ta; the uranium concentration in zircon from uranium-producing geologic body increases obviously and its rate of increase is more than that of the uranium concentration in rock; the period, in which uranium concentration in zircon is increased, is often related to better uranium-producing condition in that period of this area. 1785 data of the average uranium concentration in zircon have been counted and clear regularity has been obtained, namely the average uranium concentrations in zircon in rich uranium-producing area, rock, geologic body and metallogenetic zone are all higher than that in poor or no uranium-producing area, rock, geologic body and metallogenetic zone. This shows that the average uranium concentration in zircon within the region in fact reflects the primary uranium-bearing background in region and restricts directly follow-up possibility of uranium mineralization. On the basis of this, the uranium source conditions of known uranium metallogenetic zones and prospective provinces have been discussed, and the average uranium concentrations in zircon from magmatic rocks for 81 districts have been contrasted and graded, and some districts in which exploration will be worth doing further are put forward

  3. Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

    1999-01-01

    Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

  4. Preoperative predictive model for acute kidney injury after elective cardiac surgery: a prospective multicentre cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callejas, Raquel; Panadero, Alfredo; Vives, Marc; Duque, Paula; Echarri, Gemma; Monedero, Pablo

    2018-05-11

    Predictive models of CS-AKI include emergency surgery and patients with haemodynamic instability. Our objective was to evaluate the performance of validated predictive models (Thakar and Demirjian) in elective cardiac surgery and to propose a better score in the case of poor performance. A prospective, multicentre, observational study was designed. Data were collected from 942 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, after excluding emergency surgery and patients with an intraaortic balloon pump. The main outcome measure was CS-AKI defined by the composite of requiring dialysis or doubling baseline creatinine values. Both models showed poor discrimination in elective surgery (Thakar's model, AUROC = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.50-0.64 and Demirjian's model, AUROC= 0.64, 95% CI = 0.58-0.71). We generated a new model whose significant independent predictors were: anaemia, age, hypertension, obesity, congestive heart failure, previous cardiac surgery and type of surgery. It classifies patients with scores 0-3 as low risk ( 8 as high risk (>30%) of developing CS-AKI with a statistically significant correlation (p <0.001). Our model reflects acceptable discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.72, 95% CI = 0.66-0.78) which is significantly better than Thakar and Demirjian's models (p<0.01). We developed a new simple predictive model of CS-AKI in elective surgery based on available preoperative information. Our new model is easy to calculate and can be an effective tool for communicating risk to patients and guiding decision-making in the perioperative period. The study requires external validation.

  5. Exploring the significance of human mobility patterns in social link prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alharbi, Basma Mohammed

    2014-01-01

    Link prediction is a fundamental task in social networks. Recently, emphasis has been placed on forecasting new social ties using user mobility patterns, e.g., investigating physical and semantic co-locations for new proximity measure. This paper explores the effect of in-depth mobility patterns. Specifically, we study individuals\\' movement behavior, and quantify mobility on the basis of trip frequency, travel purpose and transportation mode. Our hybrid link prediction model is composed of two modules. The first module extracts mobility patterns, including travel purpose and mode, from raw trajectory data. The second module employs the extracted patterns for link prediction. We evaluate our method on two real data sets, GeoLife [15] and Reality Mining [5]. Experimental results show that our hybrid model significantly improves the accuracy of social link prediction, when comparing to primary topology-based solutions. Copyright 2014 ACM.

  6. Predicting Hemorrhagic Transformation of Acute Ischemic Stroke: Prospective Validation of the HeRS Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Elisabeth B; Llinas, Rafael H; Schneider, Andrea L C; Hillis, Argye E; Lawrence, Erin; Dziedzic, Peter; Gottesman, Rebecca F

    2016-01-01

    Hemorrhagic transformation (HT) increases the morbidity and mortality of ischemic stroke. Anticoagulation is often indicated in patients with atrial fibrillation, low ejection fraction, or mechanical valves who are hospitalized with acute stroke, but increases the risk of HT. Risk quantification would be useful. Prior studies have investigated risk of systemic hemorrhage in anticoagulated patients, but none looked specifically at HT. In our previously published work, age, infarct volume, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) significantly predicted HT. We created the hemorrhage risk stratification (HeRS) score based on regression coefficients in multivariable modeling and now determine its validity in a prospectively followed inpatient cohort.A total of 241 consecutive patients presenting to 2 academic stroke centers with acute ischemic stroke and an indication for anticoagulation over a 2.75-year period were included. Neuroimaging was evaluated for infarct volume and HT. Hemorrhages were classified as symptomatic versus asymptomatic, and by severity. HeRS scores were calculated for each patient and compared to actual hemorrhage status using receiver operating curve analysis.Area under the curve (AUC) comparing predicted odds of hemorrhage (HeRS score) to actual hemorrhage status was 0.701. Serum glucose (P hemorrhages were more likely to be symptomatic and more severe.The HeRS score is a valid predictor of HT in patients with ischemic stroke and indication for anticoagulation.

  7. Predicting ongoing pregnancy chances after IVF and ICSI: A national prospective study

    OpenAIRE

    Lintsen, Bea; Eijkemans, René; Hunault, C.C.; Bouwmans-Frijters, Clazien; Hakkaart-van Roijen, Leona; Habbema, Dik; Braat, Didi

    2007-01-01

    textabstractBackground: The Dutch IVF guideline suggests triage of patients for IVF based on diagnostic category, duration of infertility and female age. There is no evidence for the effectiveness of these criteria. We evaluated the predictive value of patient characteristics that are used in the Dutch IVF guideline and developed a model that predicts the IVF ongoing pregnancy chance within 12 months. Methods: In a national prospective cohort study, pregnancy chances after IVF and ICSI treatm...

  8. Source-Specific Oppositional Defiant Disorder among Inner-City Children: Prospective Prediction and Moderation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabick, Deborah A. G.; Bubier, Jennifer; Chen, Diane; Price, Julia; Lanza, H. Isabella

    2011-01-01

    We examined prospective prediction from parent- and teacher-reported oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) symptoms to parent-reported ODD, conduct disorder (CD), major depressive disorder (MDD), and generalized anxiety disorder symptoms and whether child executive functioning abilities moderated these relations among an urban, low-income sample of…

  9. Predicting Dyslexia in a Transparent Orthography from Grade 1 Literacy Skills: A Prospective Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pinto, Giuliana; Accorti Gamannossi, Beatrice

    2016-01-01

    We conducted this prospective cohort study to explore the predictability of dyslexia from 1st-grade literacy skills in Italian students. We followed 407 Italian students in primary school from the 1st through the 3rd grades. Students were diagnosed with dyslexia in the 3rd grade. We retrospectively tested participants' 1st-grade performance in…

  10. A prospective echocardiographic evaluation of pulmonary hypertension in chronic hemodialysis patients in the United States: prevalence and clinical significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kumudha Ramasubbu

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Kumudha Ramasubbu1, Anita Deswal1, Cheryl Herdejurgen2, David Aguilar1, Adaani E Frost21Section of Cardiology, Michael E DeBakey VA Medical Center and Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA; 2Section of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USABackground: Pulmonary hypertension (PH, a disease which carries substantial morbidity and mortality, has been reported to occur in 25%–45% of dialysis patients. No prospective evaluation of the prevalence or clinical significance of PH in chronic dialysis patients in the United States (US has been undertaken.Methods: Echocardiograms were performed prospectively in chronic hemodialysis patients prior to dialysis at a single dialysis center. PH was defined as a tricuspid regurgitant jet ≥2.5 m/s and “more severe PH” as ≥3.0 m/s. Clinical outcomes recovered were all-cause hospitalizations and death at 12 months.Results: In a cohort of 90 patients, 42 patients (47% met the definition of PH. Of those, 18 patients (20% met the definition of more severe PH. At 12 months, mortality was significantly higher in patients with PH (26% compared with patients without PH (6%. All-cause hospitalizations were similar in patients with PH and without PH. Echocardiographic findings suggesting impaired left ventricular function and elevated pulmonary capillary wedge pressure were significantly associated with PH.Conclusion: This prospective cross-sectional study of a single dialysis unit suggests that PH may be present in nearly half of US dialysis patients and when present is associated with increased mortality. Echocardiographic findings demonstrate an association between elevated filling pressures, elevated pulmonary artery pressures, and higher mortality, suggesting that the PH may be secondary to diastolic dysfunction and compounded by volume overload.Keywords: renal failure, pulmonary hypertension, diastolic dysfunction

  11. Symptom clusters predict mortality among dialysis patients in Norway: a prospective observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amro, Amin; Waldum, Bård; von der Lippe, Nanna; Brekke, Fredrik Barth; Dammen, Toril; Miaskowski, Christine; Os, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    Patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis have reduced survival rates compared with the general population. Symptoms are frequent in dialysis patients, and a symptom cluster is defined as two or more related co-occurring symptoms. The aim of this study was to explore the associations between symptom clusters and mortality in dialysis patients. In a prospective observational cohort study of dialysis patients (n = 301), Kidney Disease and Quality of Life Short Form and Beck Depression Inventory questionnaires were administered. To generate symptom clusters, principal component analysis with varimax rotation was used on 11 kidney-specific self-reported physical symptoms. A Beck Depression Inventory score of 16 or greater was defined as clinically significant depressive symptoms. Physical and mental component summary scores were generated from Short Form-36. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used for the survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank statistics were applied to compare survival rates between the groups. Three different symptom clusters were identified; one included loading of several uremic symptoms. In multivariate analyses and after adjustment for health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms, the worst perceived quartile of the "uremic" symptom cluster independently predicted all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.47, 95% CI 1.44-4.22, P = 0.001) compared with the other quartiles during a follow-up period that ranged from four to 52 months. The two other symptom clusters ("neuromuscular" and "skin") or the individual symptoms did not predict mortality. Clustering of uremic symptoms predicted mortality. Assessing co-occurring symptoms rather than single symptoms may help to identify dialysis patients at high risk for mortality. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Sleep disturbances predict prospective declines in resident physicians’ psychological well-being

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice A. Min

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Medical residency can be a time of increased psychological stress and sleep disturbance. We examine the prospective associations between self-reported sleep quality and resident wellness across a single training year. Methods: Sixty-nine (N=69 resident physicians completed the Brief Resident Wellness Profile (M=17.66, standard deviation [SD]=3.45, range: 0–17 and the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (M=6.22, SD=2.86, range: 12–25 at multiple occasions in a single training year. We examined the 1-month lagged effect of sleep disturbances on residents’ self-reported wellness. Results: Accounting for residents’ overall level of sleep disturbance across the entire study period, both the concurrent (within-person within-occasion effect of sleep disturbance (B=−0.20, standard error [SE]=0.06, p=0.003, 95% confidence interval [CI]: −0.33, −0.07 and the lagged within-person effect of resident sleep disturbance (B=−0.15, SE=0.07, p=0.037, 95% CI: −0.29, −0.009 were significant predictors of decreased resident wellness. Increases in sleep disturbances are a leading indicator of resident wellness, predicting decreased well-being 1 month later. Conclusions: Sleep quality exerts a significant effect on self-reported resident wellness. Periodic evaluation of sleep quality may alert program leadership and the residents themselves to impending decreases in psychological well-being.

  13. Beyond the Effects of Comprehensive Sexuality Education: The Significant Prospective Effects of Youth Assets on Contraceptive Behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Jennifer; Oman, Roy F; Vesely, Sara K; Cheney, Marshall; Carroll, Leslie

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of the study was to prospectively determine if youth assets were significantly associated with contraception use after accounting for the effects of youths' exposure to comprehensive sexuality education programming. Prospective associations between youth asset scores, comprehensive sexuality education topics received, type of contraceptive used, and consistent contraceptive use were analyzed using multinomial and binomial logistic regression in a sample of 757 sexually active youth. Higher youth asset scores were associated with condom use (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.01-2.28), hormonal birth control use (AOR = 2.71, 95% CI = 1.69-4.35), dual method use (AOR = 2.35, 95% CI = 1.44-3.82), and consistent contraceptive use (AOR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.38-2.82). After controlling for youths' experience with comprehensive sexuality education, higher youth asset scores remained a significant predictor of hormonal birth control use (AOR = 2.09, 95% CI = 1.28-3.42), dual method use (AOR = 2.58, 95% CI = 1.61-4.15), and consistent contraceptive use (AOR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.36-2.80). Youth serving organizations that are interested in preventing teen pregnancy should consider widespread implementation of evidence-based youth development programs that focus on building and strengthening specific youth assets. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Prospective assessment of dosimetric/physiologic-based models for predicting radiation pneumonitis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kocak, Zafer; Borst, Gerben R.; Zeng Jing; Zhou Sumin; Hollis, Donna R.; Zhang Junan; Evans, Elizabeth S.; Folz, Rodney J.; Wong, Terrence; Kahn, Daniel; Belderbos, Jose S.A.; Lebesque, Joos V.; Marks, Lawrence B.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose: Clinical and 3D dosimetric parameters are associated with symptomatic radiation pneumonitis rates in retrospective studies. Such parameters include: mean lung dose (MLD), radiation (RT) dose to perfused lung (via SPECT), and pre-RT lung function. Based on prior publications, we defined pre-RT criteria hypothesized to be predictive for later development of pneumonitis. We herein prospectively test the predictive abilities of these dosimetric/functional parameters on 2 cohorts of patients from Duke and Netherlands Cancer Institute (NKI). Methods and Materials: For the Duke cohort, 55 eligible patients treated between 1999 and 2005 on a prospective IRB-approved study to monitor RT-induced lung injury were analyzed. A similar group of patients treated at the NKI between 1996 and 2002 were identified. Patients believed to be at high and low risk for pneumonitis were defined based on: (1) MLD; (2) OpRP (sum of predicted perfusion reduction based on regional dose-response curve); and (3) pre-RT DLCO. All doses reflected tissue density heterogeneity. The rates of grade ≥2 pneumonitis in the 'presumed' high and low risk groups were compared using Fisher's exact test. Results: In the Duke group, pneumonitis rates in patients prospectively deemed to be at 'high' vs. 'low' risk are 7 of 20 and 9 of 35, respectively; p = 0.33 one-tailed Fisher's. Similarly, comparable rates for the NKI group are 4 of 21 and 6 of 44, respectively, p = 0.41 one-tailed Fisher's. Conclusion: The prospective model appears unable to accurately segregate patients into high vs. low risk groups. However, considered retrospectively, these data are consistent with prior studies suggesting that dosimetric (e.g., MLD) and functional (e.g., PFTs or SPECT) parameters are predictive for RT-induced pneumonitis. Additional work is needed to better identify, and prospectively assess, predictors of RT-induced lung injury

  15. Non-invasive prediction of hemodynamically significant coronary artery stenoses by contrast density difference in coronary CT angiography

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hell, Michaela M., E-mail: michaela.hell@uk-erlangen.de [Department of Cardiology, University of Erlangen (Germany); Dey, Damini [Department of Biomedical Sciences, Biomedical Imaging Research Institute, Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Taper Building, Room A238, 8700 Beverly Boulevard, Los Angeles, CA 90048 (United States); Marwan, Mohamed; Achenbach, Stephan; Schmid, Jasmin; Schuhbaeck, Annika [Department of Cardiology, University of Erlangen (Germany)

    2015-08-15

    Highlights: • Overestimation of coronary lesions by coronary computed tomography angiography and subsequent unnecessary invasive coronary angiography and revascularization is a concern. • Differences in plaque characteristics and contrast density difference between hemodynamically significant and non-significant stenoses, as defined by invasive fractional flow reserve, were assessed. • At a threshold of ≥24%, contrast density difference predicted hemodynamically significant lesions with a specificity of 75%, sensitivity of 33%, PPV of 35% and NPV of 73%. • The determination of contrast density difference required less time than transluminal attenuation gradient measurement. - Abstract: Objectives: Coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) allows the detection of obstructive coronary artery disease. However, its ability to predict the hemodynamic significance of stenoses is limited. We assessed differences in plaque characteristics and contrast density difference between hemodynamically significant and non-significant stenoses, as defined by invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR). Methods: Lesion characteristics of 59 consecutive patients (72 lesions) in whom invasive FFR was performed in at least one coronary artery with moderate to high-grade stenoses in coronary CTA were evaluated by two experienced readers. Coronary CTA data sets were acquired on a second-generation dual-source CT scanner using retrospectively ECG-gated spiral acquisition or prospectively ECG-triggered axial acquisition mode. Plaque volume and composition (non-calcified, calcified), remodeling index as well as contrast density difference (defined as the percentage decline in luminal CT attenuation/cross-sectional area over the lesion) were assessed using a semi-automatic software tool (Autoplaq). Additionally, the transluminal attenuation gradient (defined as the linear regression coefficient between intraluminal CT attenuation and length from the ostium) was determined

  16. Clinical Significance of Hemostatic Parameters in the Prediction for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Diabetic Nephropathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lianlian Pan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available It would be important to predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM and diabetic nephropathy (DN. This study was aimed at evaluating the predicting significance of hemostatic parameters for T2DM and DN. Plasma coagulation and hematologic parameters before treatment were measured in 297 T2DM patients. The risk factors and their predicting power were evaluated. T2DM patients without complications exhibited significantly different activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT, platelet (PLT, and D-dimer (D-D levels compared with controls (P<0.01. Fibrinogen (FIB, PLT, and D-D increased in DN patients compared with those without complications (P<0.001. Both aPTT and PLT were the independent risk factors for T2DM (OR: 1.320 and 1.211, P<0.01, resp., and FIB and PLT were the independent risk factors for DN (OR: 1.611 and 1.194, P<0.01, resp.. The area under ROC curve (AUC of aPTT and PLT was 0.592 and 0.647, respectively, with low sensitivity in predicting T2DM. AUC of FIB was 0.874 with high sensitivity (85% and specificity (76% for DN, and that of PLT was 0.564, with sensitivity (60% and specificity (89% based on the cutoff values of 3.15 g/L and 245 × 109/L, respectively. This study suggests that hemostatic parameters have a low predicting value for T2DM, whereas fibrinogen is a powerful predictor for DN.

  17. PROGNOSTIC SIGNIFICANCE OF CLINICAL, HISTOPATHOLOGICAL, AND MOLECULAR CHARACTERISTICS OF MEDULLOBLASTOMAS IN THE PROSPECTIVE HIT2000 MULTICENTER CLINICAL TRIAL COHORT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pietsch, Torsten; Schmidt, Rene; Remke, Marc; Korshunov, Andrey; Hovestadt, Volker; Jones, David TW; Felsberg, Jörg; Kaulich, Kerstin; Goschzik, Tobias; Kool, Marcel; Northcott, Paul A.; von Hoff, Katja; von Bueren, André O.; Friedrich, Carsten; Skladny, Heyko; Fleischhack, Gudrun; Taylor, Michael D.; Cremer, Friedrich; Lichter, Peter; Faldum, Andreas; Reifenberger, Guido; Rutkowski, Stefan; Pfister, Stefan M.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: This study aimed to prospectively evaluate clinical, histopathological and molecular variables for outcome prediction in medulloblastoma patients. METHODS: Patients from the HIT2000 cooperative clinical trial were prospectively enrolled based on the availability of sufficient tumor material and complete clinical information. This revealed a cohort of 184 patients (median age 7.6 years), which was randomly split at a 2:1 ratio into a training (n = 127), and a validation (n = 57) dataset. All samples were subjected to thorough histopathological investigation, CTNNB1 mutation analysis, quantitative PCR, MLPA and FISH analyses for cytogenetic variables, and methylome analysis. RESULTS: By univariable analysis, clinical factors (M-stage), histopathological variables (large cell component, endothelial proliferation, synaptophysin pattern), and molecular features (chromosome 6q status, MYC amplification, TOP2A copy-number, subgrouping) were found to be prognostic. Molecular consensus subgrouping (WNT, SHH, Group 3, Group 4) was validated as an independent feature to stratify patients into different risk groups. When comparing methods for the identification of WNT-driven medulloblastoma, this study identified CTNNB1 sequencing and methylation profiling to most reliably identify these patients. After removing patients with particularly favorable (CTNNB1 mutation, extensive nodularity) or unfavorable (MYC amplification) markers, a risk score for the remaining “intermediate molecular risk” population dependent on age, M-stage, pattern of synaptophysin expression, and MYCN copy-number status was identified and validated, with speckled synaptophysin expression indicating worse outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Methylation subgrouping and CTNNB1 mutation status represent robust tools for the risk-stratification of medulloblastoma. A simple clinico-pathological risk score for “intermediate molecular risk” patients was identified, which deserves further validation

  18. Rib fractures predict incident limb fractures: results from the European prospective osteoporosis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, A A; Silman, A J; Reeve, J; Kaptoge, S; O'Neill, T W

    2006-01-01

    Population studies suggest that rib fractures are associated with a reduction in bone mass. While much is known about the predictive risk of hip, spine and distal forearm fracture on the risk of future fracture, little is known about the impact of rib fracture. The aim of this study was to determine whether a recalled history of rib fracture was associated with an increased risk of future limb fracture. Men and women aged 50 years and over were recruited from population registers in 31 European centres for participation in a screening survey of osteoporosis (European Prospective Osteoporosis Study). Subjects were invited to complete an interviewer-administered questionnaire that included questions about previous fractures including rib fracture, the age of their first fracture and also the level of trauma. Lateral spine radiographs were performed and the presence of vertebral deformity was determined morphometrically. Following the baseline survey, subjects were followed prospectively by annual postal questionnaire to determine the occurrence of clinical fractures. The subjects included 6,344 men, with a mean age of 64.2 years, and 6,788 women, with a mean age of 63.6 years, who were followed for a median of 3 years (range 0.4-5.9 years), of whom 135 men (2.3%) and 101 women (1.6%) reported a previous low trauma rib fracture. In total, 138 men and 391 women sustained a limb fracture during follow-up. In women, after age adjustment, those with a recalled history of low trauma rib fracture had an increased risk of sustaining 'any' limb fracture [relative hazard (RH)=2.3; 95% CI 1.3, 4.0]. When stratified by fracture type the predictive risk was more marked for hip (RH=7.7; 95% CI 2.3, 25.9) and humerus fracture (RH=4.5; 95% CI 1.4, 14.6) than other sites (RH=1.6; 95% CI 0.6, 4.3). Additional adjustment for prevalent vertebral deformity and previous (non-rib) low trauma fractures at other sites slightly reduced the strength of the association between rib fracture and

  19. Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu Annie TW

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background - Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. Methods - A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer Registry to determine psychological outcomes after genetic testing. Self-completed questionnaires were administered immediately before (pre-disclosure baseline and 2 weeks, 4 months and 1 year after result disclosure. Using validated psychological inventories, the cognitive style of hope was measured at baseline, and the psychological distress of depression and anxiety was measured at all time points. Results - Of the 76 participating subjects, 71 individuals (43 men and 28 women; mean age 38.9 ± 9.2 years from nine FAP and 24 HNPCC families completed the study, including 39 mutated gene carriers. Four patterns of outcome trajectories were created using established norms for the specified outcome measures of depression and anxiety. These included chronic dysfunction (13% and 8.7%, recovery (0% and 4.3%, delayed dysfunction (13% and 15.9% and resilience (76.8% and 66.7%. Two logistic regression analyses were conducted using hope at baseline to predict resilience, with depression and anxiety employed as outcome indicators. Because of the small number of participants, the chronic dysfunction and delayed dysfunction groups were combined into a non-resilient group for comparison with the resilient group in all subsequent analysis. Because of low frequencies, participants exhibiting a recovery trajectory (n = 3 for anxiety and n = 0 for depression were excluded from further analysis. Both regression equations were significant. Baseline hope was a significant

  20. Hopefulness predicts resilience after hereditary colorectal cancer genetic testing: a prospective outcome trajectories study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Samuel M Y; Ho, Judy W C; Bonanno, George A; Chu, Annie T W; Chan, Emily M S

    2010-06-11

    Genetic testing for hereditary colorectal cancer (HCRC) had significant psychological consequences for test recipients. This prospective longitudinal study investigated the factors that predict psychological resilience in adults undergoing genetic testing for HCRC. A longitudinal study was carried out from April 2003 to August 2006 on Hong Kong Chinese HCRC family members who were recruited and offered genetic testing by the Hereditary Gastrointestinal Cancer Registry to determine psychological outcomes after genetic testing. Self-completed questionnaires were administered immediately before (pre-disclosure baseline) and 2 weeks, 4 months and 1 year after result disclosure. Using validated psychological inventories, the cognitive style of hope was measured at baseline, and the psychological distress of depression and anxiety was measured at all time points. Of the 76 participating subjects, 71 individuals (43 men and 28 women; mean age 38.9 +/- 9.2 years) from nine FAP and 24 HNPCC families completed the study, including 39 mutated gene carriers. Four patterns of outcome trajectories were created using established norms for the specified outcome measures of depression and anxiety. These included chronic dysfunction (13% and 8.7%), recovery (0% and 4.3%), delayed dysfunction (13% and 15.9%) and resilience (76.8% and 66.7%). Two logistic regression analyses were conducted using hope at baseline to predict resilience, with depression and anxiety employed as outcome indicators. Because of the small number of participants, the chronic dysfunction and delayed dysfunction groups were combined into a non-resilient group for comparison with the resilient group in all subsequent analysis. Because of low frequencies, participants exhibiting a recovery trajectory (n = 3 for anxiety and n = 0 for depression) were excluded from further analysis. Both regression equations were significant. Baseline hope was a significant predictor of a resilience outcome trajectory for depression

  1. Circulating histones for predicting prognosis after cardiac surgery: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hongxiang; Zhang, Naipu; Lu, Fangfang; Yu, Xindi; Zhu, Limin; Mo, Xi; Wang, Wei

    2016-11-01

    The objective of this study was to assess the perioperative changes in circulating histones and their relationships with other biomarkers and clinical outcomes after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) in patients. Forty-eight patients with congenital cardiac diseases undergoing corrective procedure with CPB were prospectively enrolled in this study. Circulating histones, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), procalcitonin (PCT) and C-reactive protein (CRP) were measured preoperatively (T0) and at 0 (T1), 24 (T2), 48 (T3) and 72 (T4) h postoperatively. The relationships between biomarkers and clinical outcomes were analysed. Circulating histones, NT-proBNP, PCT and CRP increased significantly postoperatively, with histones reaching the peak value earliest at T1. Circulating histone levels were higher in patients with adverse events. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that peak histone levels had a better predictive value for adverse events postoperatively. Peak histone levels correlated with the peak level of NT-proBNP (r = 0.563, P histones reached peak levels faster than NT-proBNP, PCT and CRP. Furthermore, peak histone levels correlated with biomarkers and postoperative clinical outcomes. Circulating histones may be used as a prognostic indicator for patients after cardiac surgery with CPB. ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT02325765). © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.

  2. PREDICT-PD: An online approach to prospectively identify risk indicators of Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noyce, Alastair J; R'Bibo, Lea; Peress, Luisa; Bestwick, Jonathan P; Adams-Carr, Kerala L; Mencacci, Niccolo E; Hawkes, Christopher H; Masters, Joseph M; Wood, Nicholas; Hardy, John; Giovannoni, Gavin; Lees, Andrew J; Schrag, Anette

    2017-02-01

    A number of early features can precede the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD). To test an online, evidence-based algorithm to identify risk indicators of PD in the UK population. Participants aged 60 to 80 years without PD completed an online survey and keyboard-tapping task annually over 3 years, and underwent smell tests and genotyping for glucocerebrosidase (GBA) and leucine-rich repeat kinase 2 (LRRK2) mutations. Risk scores were calculated based on the results of a systematic review of risk factors and early features of PD, and individuals were grouped into higher (above 15th centile), medium, and lower risk groups (below 85th centile). Previously defined indicators of increased risk of PD ("intermediate markers"), including smell loss, rapid eye movement-sleep behavior disorder, and finger-tapping speed, and incident PD were used as outcomes. The correlation of risk scores with intermediate markers and movement of individuals between risk groups was assessed each year and prospectively. Exploratory Cox regression analyses with incident PD as the dependent variable were performed. A total of 1323 participants were recruited at baseline and >79% completed assessments each year. Annual risk scores were correlated with intermediate markers of PD each year and baseline scores were correlated with intermediate markers during follow-up (all P values < 0.001). Incident PD diagnoses during follow-up were significantly associated with baseline risk score (hazard ratio = 4.39, P = .045). GBA variants or G2019S LRRK2 mutations were found in 47 participants, and the predictive power for incident PD was improved by the addition of genetic variants to risk scores. The online PREDICT-PD algorithm is a unique and simple method to identify indicators of PD risk. © 2017 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2016 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder

  3. Premorbid teacher-rated social functioning predicts adult schizophrenia-spectrum disorder: A high-risk prospective investigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tsuji, Thomas; Kline, Emily; Sorensen, Holger J.

    2013-01-01

    Social functioning deficits are a core component of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, and may emerge years prior to the onset of diagnosable illness. The current study prospectively examines the relation between teacher-rated childhood social dysfunction and later mental illness among participants...... who were at genetic high-risk for schizophrenia and controls (n=244). The teacher-rated social functioning scale significantly predicted psychiatric outcomes (schizophrenia-spectrum vs. other psychiatric disorder vs. no mental illness). Poor premorbid social functioning appears to constitute a marker...

  4. Body Dissatisfaction Prospectively Predicts Depressive Mood and Low Self-Esteem in Adolescent Girls and Boys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Susan J.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J.; Eisenberg, Marla E.

    2006-01-01

    This research examined whether body dissatisfaction prospectively predicted depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys 5 years later. Participants were early-adolescent girls (n = 440, Time 1 M age = 12.7 years) and boys (n = 366, Time 1 M age = 12.8 years) and midadolescent girls (n = 946, Time 1 M age = 15.8 years) and boys…

  5. Can the cerebroplacental ratio (CPR) predict intrapartum fetal compromise? : a prospective observational study

    OpenAIRE

    Page, Ann-Sophie; Page, Geert; Dehaene, Isabelle; Roets, Ellen; Roelens, Kristien

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the potential clinical use of serial fetal CPR measurements during the last month of pregnancy for the prediction of adverse perinatal outcome in unselected low-risk pregnancies. Methods: A multicenter prospective observational cohort study in 315 consecutively recruited low-risk pregnancies. All eligible pregnancies underwent serial sonographic evaluation of fetal weight and Doppler indices at two week intervals, from 36 weeks gestation until delivery. Data were ...

  6. Controlling factors of uranium mineralization and prospect prediction in Qimantage area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao Chunling; Zhu Pengfei; Cai Yuqi; Zhang Wenming; Zhao Yong'an; Song Jiye; Zhang Xiaojin

    2011-01-01

    Based on the analysis of regional geology in Qimantage area, the condition for uranium mineralization is summarized in regional geology setting, volcanic, granite and faults. This study shows that this area has favorable prospect for uranium mineralization. The metallogenic model is built up according to the controlling factors over uranium mineralization. Under this model, six potential areas are predicted in MRAS software with mineralization factors of synthetically geological information method. (authors)

  7. Statistical significance of theoretical predictions: A new dimension in nuclear structure theories (I)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DUDEK, J; SZPAK, B; FORNAL, B; PORQUET, M-G

    2011-01-01

    In this and the follow-up article we briefly discuss what we believe represents one of the most serious problems in contemporary nuclear structure: the question of statistical significance of parametrizations of nuclear microscopic Hamiltonians and the implied predictive power of the underlying theories. In the present Part I, we introduce the main lines of reasoning of the so-called Inverse Problem Theory, an important sub-field in the contemporary Applied Mathematics, here illustrated on the example of the Nuclear Mean-Field Approach.

  8. Performance predictions affect attentional processes of event-based prospective memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rummel, Jan; Kuhlmann, Beatrice G; Touron, Dayna R

    2013-09-01

    To investigate whether making performance predictions affects prospective memory (PM) processing, we asked one group of participants to predict their performance in a PM task embedded in an ongoing task and compared their performance with a control group that made no predictions. A third group gave not only PM predictions but also ongoing-task predictions. Exclusive PM predictions resulted in slower ongoing-task responding both in a nonfocal (Experiment 1) and in a focal (Experiment 2) PM task. Only in the nonfocal task was the additional slowing accompanied by improved PM performance. Even in the nonfocal task, however, was the correlation between ongoing-task speed and PM performance reduced after predictions, suggesting that the slowing was not completely functional for PM. Prediction-induced changes could be avoided by asking participants to additionally predict their performance in the ongoing task. In sum, the present findings substantiate a role of metamemory for attention-allocation strategies of PM. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Sasang constitutional types for the risk prediction of metabolic syndrome: a 14-year longitudinal prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; Lee, Seung Ku; Kim, Jong Yeol; Cho, Namhan; Shin, Chol

    2017-09-02

    To examine whether the use of Sasang constitutional (SC) types, such as Tae-yang (TY), Tae-eum (TE), So-yang (SY), and So-eum (SE) types, increases the accuracy of risk prediction for metabolic syndrome. From 2001 to 2014, 3529 individuals aged 40 to 69 years participated in a longitudinal prospective cohort. The Cox proportional hazard model was utilized to predict the risk of developing metabolic syndrome. During the 14 year follow-up, 1591 incident events of metabolic syndrome were observed. Individuals with TE type had higher body mass indexes and waist circumferences than individuals with SY and SE types. The risk of developing metabolic syndrome was the highest among individuals with the TE type, followed by the SY type and the SE type. When the prediction risk models for incident metabolic syndrome were compared, the area under the curve for the model using SC types was significantly increased to 0.8173. Significant predictors for incident metabolic syndrome were different according to the SC types. For individuals with the TE type, the significant predictors were age, sex, body mass index (BMI), education, smoking, drinking, fasting glucose level, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. For Individuals with the SE type, the predictors were sex, smoking, fasting glucose, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level, while the predictors in individuals with the SY type were age, sex, BMI, smoking, drinking, total cholesterol level, fasting glucose level, HDL cholesterol level, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and triglyceride level. In this prospective cohort study among 3529 individuals, we observed that utilizing the SC types significantly increased the accuracy of the risk prediction for the development of metabolic syndrome.

  10. Factors predictive for incidence and remission of internet addiction in young adolescents: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Chih-Hung; Yen, Ju-Yu; Yen, Cheng-Fang; Lin, Huang-Chi; Yang, Ming-Jen

    2007-08-01

    The aim of the study is to determine the incidence and remission rates for Internet addiction and the associated predictive factors in young adolescents over a 1-year follow-up. This was a prospective, population-based investigation. Five hundred seventeen students (267 male and 250 female) were recruited from three junior high schools in southern Taiwan. The factors examined included gender, personality, mental health, self-esteem, family function, life satisfaction, and Internet activities. The result revealed that the 1-year incidence and remission rates for Internet addiction were 7.5% and 49.5% respectively. High exploratory excitability, low reward dependence, low self-esteem, low family function, and online game playing predicted the emergency of the Internet addiction. Further, low hostility and low interpersonal sensitivity predicted remission of Internet addiction. The factors predictive incidence and remission of Internet addiction identified in this study could be provided for prevention and promoting remission of Internet addiction in adolescents.

  11. Clinical and angiographic predictors of haemodynamically significant angiographic lesions: development and validation of a risk score to predict positive fractional flow reserve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sareen, Nishtha; Baber, Usman; Kezbor, Safwan; Sayseng, Sonny; Aquino, Melissa; Mehran, Roxana; Sweeny, Joseph; Barman, Nitin; Kini, Annapoorna; Sharma, Samin K

    2017-04-07

    Coronary revascularisation based upon physiological evaluation of lesions improves clinical outcomes. Angiographic or visual stenosis assessment alone is insufficient in predicting haemodynamic stenosis severity by fractional flow reserve (FFR) and therefore cannot be used to guide revascularisation, particularly in the lesion subset system formulated. Of 1,023 consecutive lesions (883 patients), 314 (31%) were haemodynamically significant. Characteristics associated with FFR ≤0.8 include male gender, higher SYNTAX score, lesions ≥20 mm, stenosis >50%, bifurcation, calcification, absence of tortuosity and smaller reference diameter. A user-friendly integer score was developed with the five variables demonstrating the strongest association. On prospective validation (in 279 distinct lesions), the increasing value of the score correlated well with increasing haemodynamic significance (C-statistic 0.85). We identified several clinical and angiographic characteristics and formulated a scoring system to guide the approach to intermediate lesions. This may translate into cost savings. Larger studies with prospective validation are required to confirm our results.

  12. Prognostic significance of increased bone marrow microcirculation in newly diagnosed multiple myeloma: results of a prospective DCE-MRI study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Merz, Maximilian; Hillengass, Jens [Department of Radiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg (Germany); University of Heidelberg, Department of Hematology, Oncology and Rheumatology, Heidelberg (Germany); Moehler, Thomas M.; Ritsch, Judith; Delorme, Stefan [Department of Radiology, German Cancer Research Center, Heidelberg (Germany); Baeuerle, Tobias [University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Department of Radiology, Erlangen (Germany); Zechmann, Christian M. [Rinecker Proton Therapy, Muenchen (Germany); Wagner, Barbara; Hose, Dirk [University of Heidelberg, Department of Hematology, Oncology and Rheumatology, Heidelberg (Germany); Jauch, Anna [University of Heidelberg, Institute of Human Genetics, Heidelberg (Germany); Kunz, Christina; Hielscher, Thomas [German Cancer Research Center, Department of Biostatistics, Heidelberg (Germany); Laue, Hendrik [Fraunhofer MEVIS, Bremen (Germany); Goldschmidt, Hartmut [University of Heidelberg, Department of Hematology, Oncology and Rheumatology, Heidelberg (Germany); National Center for Tumor Diseases, Heidelberg (Germany)

    2016-05-15

    Aim of this prospective study was to investigate prognostic significance of increased bone marrow microcirculation as detected by dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) for survival and local complications in patients with multiple myeloma (MM). We performed DCE-MRI of the lumbar spine in 131 patients with newly diagnosed MM and analysed data according to the Brix model to acquire amplitude A and exchange rate constant k{sub ep}. In 61 patients a second MRI performed after therapy was evaluated to assess changes in vertebral height and identify vertebral fractures. Correlation analysis revealed significant positive association between beta2-microglobulin as well as immunoparesis with DCE-MRI parameters A and k{sub ep}. Additionally, A was negatively correlated with haemoglobin levels and k{sub ep} was positively correlated with LDH levels. Higher baseline k{sub ep} values were associated with decreased vertebral height in a second MRI (P = 0.007) and A values were associated with new vertebral fractures in the lower lumbar spine (P = 0.03 for L4). Pre-existing lytic bone lesions or remission after therapy had no impact on the occurrence of vertebral fractures. Multivariate analysis revealed that amplitude A is an independent adverse risk factor for overall survival. DCE-MRI is a non-invasive tool with significance for systemic prognosis and vertebral complications. (orig.)

  13. Predicting complication risk in spine surgery: a prospective analysis of a novel risk assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veeravagu, Anand; Li, Amy; Swinney, Christian; Tian, Lu; Moraff, Adrienne; Azad, Tej D; Cheng, Ivan; Alamin, Todd; Hu, Serena S; Anderson, Robert L; Shuer, Lawrence; Desai, Atman; Park, Jon; Olshen, Richard A; Ratliff, John K

    2017-07-01

    OBJECTIVE The ability to assess the risk of adverse events based on known patient factors and comorbidities would provide more effective preoperative risk stratification. Present risk assessment in spine surgery is limited. An adverse event prediction tool was developed to predict the risk of complications after spine surgery and tested on a prospective patient cohort. METHODS The spinal Risk Assessment Tool (RAT), a novel instrument for the assessment of risk for patients undergoing spine surgery that was developed based on an administrative claims database, was prospectively applied to 246 patients undergoing 257 spinal procedures over a 3-month period. Prospectively collected data were used to compare the RAT to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and the American College of Surgeons National Surgery Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) Surgical Risk Calculator. Study end point was occurrence and type of complication after spine surgery. RESULTS The authors identified 69 patients (73 procedures) who experienced a complication over the prospective study period. Cardiac complications were most common (10.2%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were calculated to compare complication outcomes using the different assessment tools. Area under the curve (AUC) analysis showed comparable predictive accuracy between the RAT and the ACS NSQIP calculator (0.670 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in RAT, 0.669 [95% CI 0.60-0.74] in NSQIP). The CCI was not accurate in predicting complication occurrence (0.55 [95% CI 0.48-0.62]). The RAT produced mean probabilities of 34.6% for patients who had a complication and 24% for patients who did not (p = 0.0003). The generated predicted values were stratified into low, medium, and high rates. For the RAT, the predicted complication rate was 10.1% in the low-risk group (observed rate 12.8%), 21.9% in the medium-risk group (observed 31.8%), and 49.7% in the high-risk group (observed 41.2%). The ACS NSQIP calculator consistently

  14. Predictive factors of occupational noise-induced hearing loss in Spanish workers: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelegrin, Armando Carballo; Canuet, Leonides; Rodríguez, Ángeles Arias; Morales, Maria Pilar Arévalo

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of our study was to identify the main factors associated with objective noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL), as indicated by abnormal audiometric testing, in Spanish workers exposed to occupational noise in the construction industry. We carried out a prospective study in Tenerife, Spain, using 150 employees exposed to occupational noise and 150 age-matched controls who were not working in noisy environments. The variables analyzed included sociodemographic data, noise-related factors, types of hearing protection, self-report hearing loss, and auditory-related symptoms (e.g., tinnitus, vertigo). Workers with pathological audiograms had significantly longer noise-exposure duration (16.2 ± 11.4 years) relative to those with normal audiograms (10.2 ± 7.0 years; t = 3.99, P hearing protection measures had audiometric abnormalities (94.1%). Additionally, workers using at least one of the protection devices (earplugs or earmuffs) had significantly more audiometric abnormalities than those using both protection measures simultaneously (Chi square = 16.07; P hearing protection measures [odds ratio (OR) = 12.30, confidence interval (CI) = 4.36-13.81, P hearing protection measures, in particular earplugs and earmuffs, associates with a lower rate of audiometric abnormalities in subjects with high occupational noise exposure. The use of hearing protection measures at work and noise-exposure duration are best predictive factors of NIHL. Auditory-related symptoms and self-report hearing loss do not represent good indicators of objective NIHL. Routine monitoring of noise levels and hearing status are of great importance as part of effective hearing conservation programs.

  15. Prospective versus predictive control in timing of hitting a falling ball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsumata, Hiromu; Russell, Daniel M

    2012-02-01

    Debate exists as to whether humans use prospective or predictive control to intercept an object falling under gravity (Baurès et al. in Vis Res 47:2982-2991, 2007; Zago et al. in Vis Res 48:1532-1538, 2008). Prospective control involves using continuous information to regulate action. τ, the ratio of the size of the gap to the rate of gap closure, has been proposed as the information used in guiding interceptive actions prospectively (Lee in Ecol Psychol 10:221-250, 1998). This form of control is expected to generate movement modulation, where variability decreases over the course of an action based upon more accurate timing information. In contrast, predictive control assumes that a pre-programmed movement is triggered at an appropriate criterion timing variable. For a falling object it is commonly argued that an internal model of gravitational acceleration is used to predict the motion of the object and determine movement initiation. This form of control predicts fixed duration movements initiated at consistent time-to-contact (TTC), either across conditions (constant criterion operational timing) or within conditions (variable criterion operational timing). The current study sought to test predictive and prospective control hypotheses by disrupting continuous visual information of a falling ball and examining consistency in movement initiation and duration, and evidence for movement modulation. Participants (n = 12) batted a ball dropped from three different heights (1, 1.3 and 1.5 m), under both full-vision and partial occlusion conditions. In the occlusion condition, only the initial ball drop and the final 200 ms of ball flight to the interception point could be observed. The initiation of the swing did not occur at a consistent TTC, τ, or any other timing variable across drop heights, in contrast with previous research. However, movement onset was not impacted by occluding the ball flight for 280-380 ms. This finding indicates that humans did not

  16. Prospective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, H.N. Jr.

    1984-01-01

    All living systems are characterized by an S-shaped growth curve, representing a lag phase, a phase of exponential growth and a plateau. Nuclear medicine is no exception. In one sense, medical imaging modalities, such as plain film and contrast studies, computerized tomography (CT), ultrasound, digital subtraction angiography, conventional nuclear imaging, and PET, are competitive. They compete for space, funds, people, enthusiasm, and interest. For example, in the 1970s the use of radionuclide brain scans dropped sharply in hospitals when CT became available; ultrasound and nuclear medicine studies of the biliary system led to a significant decrease in the use of oral cholecystograpy and intravenous cholangiography. Some predict that nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) and digital radiography may have a significant impact on CT scanning by 1990, because current NMR images are comparable in anatomic resolution to CT without bone artifacts and, especially important in the 1980s, without ionizing radiation. In the face of all this competition, the continued growth and well-being of the field of nuclear medicine will depend on the degree to which the field can adapt itself to the changing circumstances of medical practice and research in the 1980s. The forces that will shape the future of nuclear medicine will continue to come from both within and outside the field

  17. Early detection of clinically significant prostate cancer at diagnosis: a prospective study using a novel panel of TMPRSS2:ETS fusion gene markers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Sam W.; Nguyen, Phuong-Nam; Violette, Philippe; Brimo, Fadi; Taguchi, Yosh; Aprikian, Armen; Chen, Junjian Z.

    2013-01-01

    We explore noninvasive clinical applications of multiple disease-specific fusion markers recently discovered in prostate cancer to predict the risk of cancer occurrence and aggressiveness at diagnosis. A total of 92 men who were prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screened and scheduled for diagnostic biopsy were enrolled for this study. Prospectively collected urine was blind coded for laboratory tests. RNA from urine sediments was analyzed using a panel of 6 TMPRSS2:ETS fusion markers with a sensitive quantitative PCR platform. The pathology reported 39 biopsy-positive cases from 92 patients (42.4%). In urine test, 10 unique combinations of fusion types were detected in 32 of 92 (34.8%) prebiopsy samples. A novel combination of fusion markers, termed Fx (III, IV, ETS), was identified with a sensitivity of 51.3% and an odds ratio of 10.1 in detecting cancer on biopsy. Incorporating a categorical variable of Fx (III, IV, ETS) with urine PCA3 and serum PSA, a regression model was developed to predict biopsy outcomes with an overall accuracy of 77%. Moreover, the overexpression of Fx (III, IV, or ETS) was shown to be an independent predictor to the high-grade cancer, with a predictive accuracy of 80% when coupled with PSA density. The individualized risk scores further stratified a high-risk group that is composed of 92% high-grade cancers and a low-risk group that harbors mainly clinically insignificant cancers. In conclusion, we have identified a novel combination of fusion types very specific to the clinically significant prostate cancer and developed effective regression models to predict biopsy outcomes and aggressive cancers at diagnosis

  18. Mapping Soil Properties of Africa at 250 m Resolution: Random Forests Significantly Improve Current Predictions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomislav Hengl

    Full Text Available 80% of arable land in Africa has low soil fertility and suffers from physical soil problems. Additionally, significant amounts of nutrients are lost every year due to unsustainable soil management practices. This is partially the result of insufficient use of soil management knowledge. To help bridge the soil information gap in Africa, the Africa Soil Information Service (AfSIS project was established in 2008. Over the period 2008-2014, the AfSIS project compiled two point data sets: the Africa Soil Profiles (legacy database and the AfSIS Sentinel Site database. These data sets contain over 28 thousand sampling locations and represent the most comprehensive soil sample data sets of the African continent to date. Utilizing these point data sets in combination with a large number of covariates, we have generated a series of spatial predictions of soil properties relevant to the agricultural management--organic carbon, pH, sand, silt and clay fractions, bulk density, cation-exchange capacity, total nitrogen, exchangeable acidity, Al content and exchangeable bases (Ca, K, Mg, Na. We specifically investigate differences between two predictive approaches: random forests and linear regression. Results of 5-fold cross-validation demonstrate that the random forests algorithm consistently outperforms the linear regression algorithm, with average decreases of 15-75% in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE across soil properties and depths. Fitting and running random forests models takes an order of magnitude more time and the modelling success is sensitive to artifacts in the input data, but as long as quality-controlled point data are provided, an increase in soil mapping accuracy can be expected. Results also indicate that globally predicted soil classes (USDA Soil Taxonomy, especially Alfisols and Mollisols help improve continental scale soil property mapping, and are among the most important predictors. This indicates a promising potential for transferring

  19. Prospects and Potential Uses of Genomic Prediction of Key Performance Traits in Tetraploid Potato

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Stich

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Genomic prediction is a routine tool in breeding programs of most major animal and plant species. However, its usefulness for potato breeding has not yet been evaluated in detail. The objectives of this study were to (i examine the prospects of genomic prediction of key performance traits in a diversity panel of tetraploid potato modeling additive, dominance, and epistatic effects, (ii investigate the effects of size and make up of training set, number of test environments and molecular markers on prediction accuracy, and (iii assess the effect of including markers from candidate genes on the prediction accuracy. With genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP, BayesA, BayesCπ, and Bayesian LASSO, four different prediction methods were used for genomic prediction of relative area under disease progress curve after a Phytophthora infestans infection, plant maturity, maturity corrected resistance, tuber starch content, tuber starch yield (TSY, and tuber yield (TY of 184 tetraploid potato clones or subsets thereof genotyped with the SolCAP 8.3k SNP array. The cross-validated prediction accuracies with GBLUP and the three Bayesian approaches for the six evaluated traits ranged from about 0.5 to about 0.8. For traits with a high expected genetic complexity, such as TSY and TY, we observed an 8% higher prediction accuracy using a model with additive and dominance effects compared with a model with additive effects only. Our results suggest that for oligogenic traits in general and when diagnostic markers are available in particular, the use of Bayesian methods for genomic prediction is highly recommended and that the diagnostic markers should be modeled as fixed effects. The evaluation of the relative performance of genomic prediction vs. phenotypic selection indicated that the former is superior, assuming cycle lengths and selection intensities that are possible to realize in commercial potato breeding programs.

  20. A prospective study on personality and the cortisol awakening response to predict posttraumatic stress symptoms in response to military deployment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Zuiden, Mirjam; Kavelaars, Annemieke; Rademaker, Arthur R.; Vermetten, Eric; Heijnen, Cobi J.; Geuze, Elbert

    2011-01-01

    Few prospective studies on pre-trauma predictors for subsequent development of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) have been conducted. In this study we prospectively investigated whether pre-deployment personality and the cortisol awakening response (CAR) predicted development of PTSD symptoms in

  1. Predictive Power of Prospective Physical Education Teachers' Attitudes towards Educational Technologies for Their Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varol, Yaprak Kalemoglu

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the research is to determine the predictive power of prospective physical education teachers' attitudes towards educational technologies for their technological pedagogical content knowledge. In this study, a relational research model was used on a study group that consisted of 529 (M[subscript age]=21.49, SD=1.44) prospective physical…

  2. Continuous electroencephalography predicts delayed cerebral ischemia after subarachnoid hemorrhage: A prospective study of diagnostic accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenthal, Eric S; Biswal, Siddharth; Zafar, Sahar F; O'Connor, Kathryn L; Bechek, Sophia; Shenoy, Apeksha V; Boyle, Emily J; Shafi, Mouhsin M; Gilmore, Emily J; Foreman, Brandon P; Gaspard, Nicolas; Leslie-Mazwi, Thabele M; Rosand, Jonathan; Hoch, Daniel B; Ayata, Cenk; Cash, Sydney S; Cole, Andrew J; Patel, Aman B; Westover, M Brandon

    2018-04-16

    Delayed cerebral ischemia (DCI) is a common, disabling complication of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). Preventing DCI is a key focus of neurocritical care, but interventions carry risk and cannot be applied indiscriminately. Although retrospective studies have identified continuous electroencephalographic (cEEG) measures associated with DCI, no study has characterized the accuracy of cEEG with sufficient rigor to justify using it to triage patients to interventions or clinical trials. We therefore prospectively assessed the accuracy of cEEG for predicting DCI, following the Standards for Reporting Diagnostic Accuracy Studies. We prospectively performed cEEG in nontraumatic, high-grade SAH patients at a single institution. The index test consisted of clinical neurophysiologists prospectively reporting prespecified EEG alarms: (1) decreasing relative alpha variability, (2) decreasing alpha-delta ratio, (3) worsening focal slowing, or (4) late appearing epileptiform abnormalities. The diagnostic reference standard was DCI determined by blinded, adjudicated review. Primary outcome measures were sensitivity and specificity of cEEG for subsequent DCI, determined by multistate survival analysis, adjusted for baseline risk. One hundred three of 227 consecutive patients were eligible and underwent cEEG monitoring (7.7-day mean duration). EEG alarms occurred in 96.2% of patients with and 19.6% without subsequent DCI (1.9-day median latency, interquartile range = 0.9-4.1). Among alarm subtypes, late onset epileptiform abnormalities had the highest predictive value. Prespecified EEG findings predicted DCI among patients with low (91% sensitivity, 83% specificity) and high (95% sensitivity, 77% specificity) baseline risk. cEEG accurately predicts DCI following SAH and may help target therapies to patients at highest risk of secondary brain injury. Ann Neurol 2018. © 2018 American Neurological Association.

  3. Predicting surgical site infection after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

    2014-09-01

    The impact of surgical site infection (SSI) is substantial. Although previous study has determined relative risk and odds ratio (OR) values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of SSI, rather than relative risk or OR values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of SSI after spine surgery. This study performs a multivariate analysis of SSI after spine surgery using a large prospective surgical registry. Using the results of this analysis, this study will then create and validate a predictive model for SSI after spine surgery. The patient sample is from a high-quality surgical registry from our two institutions with prospectively collected, detailed demographic, comorbidity, and complication data. An SSI that required return to the operating room for surgical debridement. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,532 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication details recorded for 2 years after the surgery, we identified several risk factors for SSI after multivariate analysis. Using the beta coefficients from those regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of SSI after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created a predictive model based on our beta coefficients from our multivariate analysis. The final predictive model for SSI had a receiver-operator curve characteristic of 0.72, considered to be a fair measure. The final model has been uploaded for use on SpineSage.com. We present a validated model for predicting SSI after spine surgery. The value in this model is that it gives

  4. Utility of the theories of reasoned action and planned behavior for predicting physician behavior: a prospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millstein, S G

    1996-09-01

    The utility of the theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) for prospectively predicting physicians' delivery of preventive services was compared. Primary care physicians (N = 765) completed 2 mail surveys at periods 6 months apart. The addition of perceived behavioral control to the TRA model significantly increased the variance accounted for in behavioral intention and subsequent behavior (p behavioral control had direct effects on behavior and interacted with social norms and behavioral intentions. Applications of models such as the TRA or TPB have focused primarily on predicting the behavioral intentions and behaviors of patients. Results suggest that these models have relevance for studying the behavior of health care providers as well.

  5. The significance of collateral vessels, as seen on chest CT, in predicting SVC obstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeouk, Young Soo; Kim, Sung Jin; Bae, Il Hun; Kim, Jae Youn; Hwang, Seung Min; Han, Gi Seok; Park, Kil Sun; Kim, Dae Young

    1998-01-01

    To evaluate the significance of collateral veins, as seen on chest CT, in the diagnosis of superior vena cava obstruction. We retrospectively the records of 81 patients in whom collateral veins were seen on chest CT. On spiral CT(n=49), contrast material was infused via power injector, and on conventional CT(n=32), 50 ml bolus infusion was followed by 50 ml drip infusion. Obstruction of the SVC was evaluated on chest CT; if, however, evaluation of the SVC of its major tributaries was difficult, as in five cases, the patient underwent SVC phlebography. Collateral vessels were assigned to one of ten categories. On conventional CT, the jugular venous arch in the only collateral vessel to predict SVC obstruction; on spiral CT, however, collateral vessels are not helpful in the diagnosis of SVC obstruction, but are a nonspecific finding. (author). 12 refs., 2 tab., 2 figs

  6. The prognostic significance of UCA1 for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system malignancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Fang-Teng; Dong, Qing; Gao, Hui; Zhu, Zheng-Ming

    2017-06-20

    Urothelial Carcinoma Associated 1 (UCA1) was an originally identified lncRNA in bladder cancer. Previous studies have reported that UCA1 played a significant role in various types of cancer. This study aimed to clarify the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. The meta-analysis of 15 studies were included, comprising 1441 patients with digestive system cancers. The pooled results of 14 studies indicated that high expression of UCA1 was significantly associated with poorer OS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR: 1.89, 95 % CI: 1.52-2.26). In addition, UCA1 could be as an independent prognostic factor for predicting OS of patients (HR: 1.85, 95 % CI: 1.45-2.25). The pooled results of 3 studies indicated a significant association between UCA1 and DFS in patients with digestive system cancers (HR = 2.50; 95 % CI = 1.30-3.69). Statistical significance was also observed in subgroup meta-analysis. Furthermore, the clinicopathological values of UCA1 were discussed in esophageal cancer, colorectal cancer and pancreatic cancer. A comprehensive retrieval was performed to search studies evaluating the prognostic value of UCA1 in digestive system cancers. Many databases were involved, including PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang database. Quantitative meta-analysis was performed with standard statistical methods and the prognostic significance of UCA1 in digestive system cancers was qualified. Elevated level of UCA1 indicated the poor clinical outcome for patients with digestive system cancers. It may serve as a new biomarker related to prognosis in digestive system cancers.

  7. Prediction of methotrexate intolerance in juvenile idiopathic arthritis: a prospective, observational cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Dijkhuizen, Evert Hendrik Pieter; Bulatović Ćalasan, Maja; Pluijm, Saskia M F; de Rotte, Maurits C F J; Vastert, Sebastiaan J; Kamphuis, Sylvia; de Jonge, Robert; Wulffraat, Nico M

    2015-01-01

    Methotrexate (MTX) is an effective and safe drug in the treatment of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA). Despite its safety, MTX-related gastrointestinal adverse effects before and after MTX administration, termed MTX intolerance, occur frequently, leading to non-compliance and potentially premature MTX termination. The aim of this study was to construct a risk model to predict MTX intolerance. In a prospective JIA cohort, clinical variables and single nucleotide polymorphisms were determined at MTX start. The Methotrexate Intolerance Severity Score was employed to measure MTX intolerance in the first year of treatment. MTX intolerance was most prevalent at 6 or 12 months after MTX start, which was defined as the outcome for the prediction model. The model was developed in 152 patients using multivariable logistic regression analysis and subsequently internally validated using bootstrapping. The prediction model included the following predictors: JIA category, antinuclear antibody, parent/patient assessment of pain, Juvenile Arthritis Disease Activity Score-27, thrombocytes, alanine aminotransferase and creatinine. The model classified 77.5% of patients correctly, and 66.7% of patients after internal validation by bootstrapping. The lowest predicted risk of MTX intolerance was 18.9% and the highest predicted risk was 85.9%. The prediction model was transformed into a risk score (range 0-17). At a cut-off of ≥6, sensitivity was 82.0%, specificity 56.1%, positive predictive value was 58.7% and negative predictive value 80.4%. This clinical prediction model showed moderate predictive power to detect MTX intolerance. To develop into a clinically usable tool, it should be validated in an independent cohort and updated with new predictors. Such an easy-to-use tool could then assist clinicians in identifying patients at risk to develop MTX intolerance, and in turn to monitor them closely and intervene timely in order to prevent the development of MTX intolerance

  8. Antimicrobial resistance predicts death in Tanzanian children with bloodstream infections: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Msangi Viola

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Bloodstream infection is a common cause of hospitalization, morbidity and death in children. The impact of antimicrobial resistance and HIV infection on outcome is not firmly established. Methods We assessed the incidence of bloodstream infection and risk factors for fatal outcome in a prospective cohort study of 1828 consecutive admissions of children aged zero to seven years with signs of systemic infection. Blood was obtained for culture, malaria microscopy, HIV antibody test and, when necessary, HIV PCR. We recorded data on clinical features, underlying diseases, antimicrobial drug use and patients' outcome. Results The incidence of laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection was 13.9% (255/1828 of admissions, despite two thirds of the study population having received antimicrobial therapy prior to blood culture. The most frequent isolates were klebsiella, salmonellae, Escherichia coli, enterococci and Staphylococcus aureus. Furthermore, 21.6% had malaria and 16.8% HIV infection. One third (34.9% of the children with laboratory-confirmed bloodstream infection died. The mortality rate from Gram-negative bloodstream infection (43.5% was more than double that of malaria (20.2% and Gram-positive bloodstream infection (16.7%. Significant risk factors for death by logistic regression modeling were inappropriate treatment due to antimicrobial resistance, HIV infection, other underlying infectious diseases, malnutrition and bloodstream infection caused by Enterobacteriaceae, other Gram-negatives and candida. Conclusion Bloodstream infection was less common than malaria, but caused more deaths. The frequent use of antimicrobials prior to blood culture may have hampered the detection of organisms susceptible to commonly used antimicrobials, including pneumococci, and thus the study probably underestimates the incidence of bloodstream infection. The finding that antimicrobial resistance, HIV-infection and malnutrition predict fatal

  9. Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liaskou, Chara; Chara, Liaskou; Vouzounerakis, Eleftherios; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Moirasgenti, Maria; Maria, Moirasgenti; Trikoupi, Anastasia; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Staikou, Chryssoula; Chryssoula, Staikou

    2014-03-01

    Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack-Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack-Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC.

  10. Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: Prospective changes following first depression onset

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technow, Jessica R.; Hazel, Nicholas A.; Abela, John R. Z.; Hankin, Benjamin L.

    2015-01-01

    Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors’ roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every three months over the course of two years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of stress sensitization and generation processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression. PMID:25123081

  11. Stress sensitivity interacts with depression history to predict depressive symptoms among youth: prospective changes following first depression onset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Technow, Jessica R; Hazel, Nicholas A; Abela, John R Z; Hankin, Benjamin L

    2015-04-01

    Predictors of depressive symptoms may differ before and after the first onset of major depression due to stress sensitization. Dependent stressors, or those to which characteristics of individuals contribute, have been shown to predict depressive symptoms in youth. The current study sought to clarify how stressors' roles may differ before and after the first depressive episode. Adolescents (N = 382, aged 11 to 15 at baseline) were assessed at baseline and every 3 months over the course of 2 years with measures of stressors and depressive symptoms. Semi-structured interviews were conducted every 6 months to assess for clinically significant depressive episodes. Hierarchical linear modeling showed a significant interaction between history of depression and idiographic fluctuations in dependent stressors to predict prospective elevations of symptoms, such that dependent stressors were more predictive of depressive symptoms after onset of disorder. Independent stressors predicted symptoms, but the strength of the association did not vary by depression history. These results suggest a synthesis of dependent stress and stress sensitization processes that might maintain inter-episode depressive symptoms among youth with a history of clinical depression.

  12. Interaction of CD38 Variant and Chronic Interpersonal Stress Prospectively Predicts Social Anxiety and Depression Symptoms Over Six Years

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Benjamin A.; Vrshek-Schallhorn, Suzanne; Zinbarg, Richard E.; Prenoveau, Jason M.; Mineka, Susan; Redei, Eva E.; Adam, Emma K.; Craske, Michelle G.

    2015-01-01

    Variation in the CD38 gene, which regulates secretion of the neuropeptide oxytocin, has been associated with several social phenotypes. Specifically, rs3796863 A allele carriers have demonstrated increased social sensitivity. In 400 older adolescents, we used trait-state-occasion modeling to investigate how rs3796863 genotype, baseline ratings of chronic interpersonal stress, and their gene-environment (GxE) interaction predicted trait social anxiety and depression symptoms over six years. We found significant GxE effects for CD38 A-carrier genotypes and chronic interpersonal stress at baseline predicting greater social anxiety and depression symptoms. A significant GxE effect of smaller magnitude was also found for C/C genotype and chronic interpersonal stress predicting greater depression; however, this effect was small compared to the main effect of chronic interpersonal stress. Thus, in the context of chronic interpersonal stress, heightened social sensitivity associated with the rs3796863 A allele may prospectively predict risk for social anxiety and (to a lesser extent) depression. PMID:26958455

  13. Prevalence, significance and predictive value of antiphospholipid antibodies in Crohn’s disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipeki, Nora; Davida, Laszlo; Palyu, Eszter; Altorjay, Istvan; Harsfalvi, Jolan; Antal Szalmas, Peter; Szabo, Zoltan; Veres, Gabor; Shums, Zakera; Norman, Gary L; Lakatos, Peter L; Papp, Maria

    2015-01-01

    AIM: To assess the prevalence and stability of different antiphospholipid antibodies (APLAs) and their association with disease phenotype and progression in inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) patients. METHODS: About 458 consecutive patients [Crohn’s disease (CD): 271 and ulcerative colitis (UC): 187] were enrolled into a follow-up cohort study in a tertiary IBD referral center in Hungary. Detailed clinical phenotypes were determined at enrollment by reviewing the patients’ medical charts. Disease activity, medical treatment and data about evolvement of complications or surgical interventions were determined prospectively during the follow-up. Disease course (development f complicated disease phenotype and need for surgery), occurrence of thrombotic events, actual state of disease activity according to clinical, laboratory and endoscopic scores and accurate treatment regime were recorded during the follow-up, (median, 57.4 and 61.6 mo for CD and UC). Sera of IBD patients and 103 healthy controls (HC) were tested on individual anti-β2-Glycoprotein-I (anti-β2-GPI IgA/M/G), anti-cardiolipin (ACA IgA/M/G) and anti-phosphatidylserine/prothrombin (anti-PS/PT IgA/M/G) antibodies and also anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies (ASCA IgA/G) by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In a subgroup of CD (n = 198) and UC patients (n = 103), obtaining consecutive samples over various arbitrary time-points during the disease course, we evaluated the intraindividual stability of the APLA status. Additionally, we provide an overview of studies, performed so far, in which significance of APLAs in IBD were assessed. RESULTS: Patients with CD had significantly higher prevalence of both ACA (23.4%) and anti-PS/PT (20.4%) antibodies than UC (4.8%, P < 0.0001 and 10.2%, P = 0.004) and HC (2.9%, P < 0.0001 and 15.5%, P = NS). No difference was found for the prevalence of anti-β2-GPI between different groups (7.2%-9.7%). In CD, no association was found between APLA and ASCA

  14. Elite level rhythmic gymnasts have significantly more and stronger pain than peers of similar age: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabeti, Manuel; Jeremian, Lusine; Graf, Alexandra; Kandelhart, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Rhythmic gymnastics (RG) unites aesthetic, ballet-like motion, and all aspects of gymnastics. To reach elite level, girls begin at early age the intensive training. To date it is unclear if such demanding training influences the incidence and intensity of painful overuse injuries. The purpose of this study is to analyze anatomical painful regions and pain intensity in elite level rhythmic gymnasts (elRG) and compare results with an age-matched control group (CG). This prospective field study was carried out at the European Championship in RG 2013 (218 participating athletes, Vienna, Austria). Volunteering athletes were interviewed according to a preformed questionnaire. As CG secondary school pupils without any competitive sports experience were analyzed accordingly. Overall, 243 young females (144 elRG/66 % of all participants and 99 CG) were observed. ElRGs were significantly (s.) smaller, lighter, and had s. stronger pain (p < 0.001). A total of 72 % of athletes reported to have at least one painful body region compared with 52 % of CG (p < 0.001). ElRG had nearly three times more serious injuries than the CG. In all 23 % off all elRG reported to have had no access to professional medical care. ElRGs were s. more frequently (25 vs 9 %) affected at the lumbar spine and the ankle joint (17.4 vs 7 %). To our knowledge, this trial analyzes the largest cohort of elRG to date. Hence, it is clearly alluded that intensive training in RG is a significant factor causing more and stronger pain than in a CG.

  15. Significance of SYT8 For the Detection, Prediction, and Treatment of Peritoneal Metastasis From Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanda, Mitsuro; Shimizu, Dai; Tanaka, Haruyoshi; Tanaka, Chie; Kobayashi, Daisuke; Hayashi, Masamichi; Iwata, Naoki; Niwa, Yukiko; Yamada, Suguru; Fujii, Tsutomu; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Murotani, Kenta; Fujiwara, Michitaka; Kodera, Yasuhiro

    2018-03-01

    To develop novel diagnostic and therapeutic targets specific for peritoneal metastasis of gastric cancer (GC). Advanced GC frequently recurs because of undetected micrometastases even after curative resection. Peritoneal metastasis has been the most frequent recurrent pattern after gastrectomy and is incurable. We conducted a recurrence pattern-specific transcriptome analysis in an independent cohort of 16 patients with stage III GC who underwent curative gastrectomy and adjuvant S-1 for screening candidate molecules specific for peritoneal metastasis of GC. Next, another 340 patients were allocated to discovery and validation sets (1:2) to evaluate the diagnostic and predictive value of the candidate molecule. The results of quantitative reverse-transcription PCR and immunohistochemical analysis were correlated with clinical characteristics and survival. The effects of siRNA-mediated knockdown on phenotype and fluorouracil sensitivity of GC cells were evaluated in vitro, and the therapeutic effects of siRNAs were evaluated using a mouse xenograft model. Synaptotagmin VIII (SYT8) was identified as a candidate biomarker specific to peritoneal metastasis. In the discovery set, the optimal cut-off of SYT8 expression was established as 0.005. Expression levels of SYT8 mRNA in GC tissues were elevated in the validation set comprising patients with peritoneal recurrence or metastasis. SYT8 levels above the cut-off value were significantly and specifically associated with peritoneal metastasis, and served as an independent prognostic marker for peritoneal recurrence-free survival of patients with stage II/III GC. The survival difference between patients with SYT8 levels above and below the cut-off was associated with patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy. Inhibition of SYT8 expression by GC cells correlated with decreased invasion, migration, and fluorouracil resistance. Intraperitoneal administration of SYT8-siRNA inhibited the growth of peritoneal nodules and

  16. Predicting Intentions of a Familiar Significant Other Beyond the Mirror Neuron System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Cacioppo

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Inferring intentions of others is one of the most intriguing issues in interpersonal interaction. Theories of embodied cognition and simulation suggest that this mechanism takes place through a direct and automatic matching process that occurs between an observed action and past actions. This process occurs via the reactivation of past self-related sensorimotor experiences within the inferior frontoparietal network (including the mirror neuron system, MNS. The working model is that the anticipatory representations of others' behaviors require internal predictive models of actions formed from pre-established, shared representations between the observer and the actor. This model suggests that observers should be better at predicting intentions performed by a familiar actor, rather than a stranger. However, little is known about the modulations of the intention brain network as a function of the familiarity between the observer and the actor. Here, we combined functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI with a behavioral intention inference task, in which participants were asked to predict intentions from three types of actors: A familiar actor (their significant other, themselves (another familiar actor, and a non-familiar actor (a stranger. Our results showed that the participants were better at inferring intentions performed by familiar actors than non-familiar actors and that this better performance was associated with greater activation within and beyond the inferior frontoparietal network i.e., in brain areas related to familiarity (e.g., precuneus. In addition, and in line with Hebbian principles of neural modulations, the more the participants reported being cognitively close to their partner, the less the brain areas associated with action self-other comparison (e.g., inferior parietal lobule, attention (e.g., superior parietal lobule, recollection (hippocampus, and pair bond (ventral tegmental area, VTA were recruited, suggesting that the

  17. Office gel sonovaginography for the prediction of posterior deep infiltrating endometriosis: a multicenter prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, S; Lu, C; Hardy, N; Casikar, I; Reid, G; Cario, G; Chou, D; Almashat, D; Condous, G

    2014-12-01

    To use office gel sonovaginography (SVG) to predict posterior deep infiltrating endometriosis (DIE) in women undergoing laparoscopy. This was a multicenter prospective observational study carried out between January 2009 and February 2013. All women were of reproductive age, had a history of chronic pelvic pain and underwent office gel SVG assessment for the prediction of posterior compartment DIE prior to laparoscopic endometriosis surgery. Gel SVG findings were compared with laparoscopic findings to determine the diagnostic accuracy of office gel SVG for the prediction of posterior compartment DIE. In total, 189 women underwent preoperative gel SVG and laparoscopy for endometriosis. At laparoscopy, 57 (30%) women had posterior DIE and 43 (23%) had rectosigmoid/anterior rectal DIE. For the prediction of rectosigmoid/anterior rectal (i.e. bowel) DIE, gel SVG had an accuracy of 92%, sensitivity of 88%, specificity of 93%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 79%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 97%, positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of 12.9 and negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 0.12 (P = 3.98E-25); for posterior vaginal wall and rectovaginal septum (RVS) DIE, respectively, the accuracy was 95% and 95%, sensitivity was 18% and 18%, specificity was 99% and 100%, PPV was 67% and 100%, NPV was 95% and 95%, LR+ was 32.4 and infinity and LR- was 0.82 and 0.82 (P = 0.009 and P = 0.003). Office gel SVG appears to be an effective outpatient imaging technique for the prediction of bowel DIE, with a higher accuracy for the prediction of rectosigmoid compared with anterior rectal DIE. Although the sensitivity for vaginal and RVS DIE was limited, gel SVG had a high specificity and NPV for all forms of posterior DIE, indicating that a negative gel SVG examination is highly suggestive of the absence of DIE at laparoscopy. Copyright © 2014 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Spatially resolved flux measurements of NOx from London suggest significantly higher emissions than predicted by inventories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaughan, Adam R; Lee, James D; Misztal, Pawel K; Metzger, Stefan; Shaw, Marvin D; Lewis, Alastair C; Purvis, Ruth M; Carslaw, David C; Goldstein, Allen H; Hewitt, C Nicholas; Davison, Brian; Beevers, Sean D; Karl, Thomas G

    2016-07-18

    To date, direct validation of city-wide emissions inventories for air pollutants has been difficult or impossible. However, recent technological innovations now allow direct measurement of pollutant fluxes from cities, for comparison with emissions inventories, which are themselves commonly used for prediction of current and future air quality and to help guide abatement strategies. Fluxes of NOx were measured using the eddy-covariance technique from an aircraft flying at low altitude over London. The highest fluxes were observed over central London, with lower fluxes measured in suburban areas. A footprint model was used to estimate the spatial area from which the measured emissions occurred. This allowed comparison of the flux measurements to the UK's National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) for NOx, with scaling factors used to account for the actual time of day, day of week and month of year of the measurement. The comparison suggests significant underestimation of NOx emissions in London by the NAEI, mainly due to its under-representation of real world road traffic emissions. A comparison was also carried out with an enhanced version of the inventory using real world driving emission factors and road measurement data taken from the London Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (LAEI). The measurement to inventory agreement was substantially improved using the enhanced version, showing the importance of fully accounting for road traffic, which is the dominant NOx emission source in London. In central London there was still an underestimation by the inventory of 30-40% compared with flux measurements, suggesting significant improvements are still required in the NOx emissions inventory.

  19. Emphysema predicts hospitalisation and incident airflow obstruction among older smokers: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A McAllister

    Full Text Available Emphysema on CT is common in older smokers. We hypothesised that emphysema on CT predicts acute episodes of care for chronic lower respiratory disease among older smokers.Participants in a lung cancer screening study age ≥ 60 years were recruited into a prospective cohort study in 2001-02. Two radiologists independently visually assessed the severity of emphysema as absent, mild, moderate or severe. Percent emphysema was defined as the proportion of voxels ≤ -910 Hounsfield Units. Participants completed a median of 5 visits over a median of 6 years of follow-up. The primary outcome was hospitalization, emergency room or urgent office visit for chronic lower respiratory disease. Spirometry was performed following ATS/ERS guidelines. Airflow obstruction was defined as FEV1/FVC ratio <0.70 and FEV1<80% predicted.Of 521 participants, 4% had moderate or severe emphysema, which was associated with acute episodes of care (rate ratio 1.89; 95% CI: 1.01-3.52 adjusting for age, sex and race/ethnicity, as was percent emphysema, with similar associations for hospitalisation. Emphysema on visual assessment also predicted incident airflow obstruction (HR 5.14; 95% CI 2.19-21.1.Visually assessed emphysema and percent emphysema on CT predicted acute episodes of care for chronic lower respiratory disease, with the former predicting incident airflow obstruction among older smokers.

  20. Do race, neglect, and childhood poverty predict physical health in adulthood? A multilevel prospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikulina, Valentina; Widom, Cathy Spatz

    2014-03-01

    Childhood neglect and poverty often co-occur and both have been linked to poor physical health outcomes. In addition, Blacks have higher rates of childhood poverty and tend to have worse health than Whites. This paper examines the unique and interacting effects of childhood neglect, race, and family and neighborhood poverty on adult physical health outcomes. This prospective cohort design study uses a sample (N=675) of court-substantiated cases of childhood neglect and matched controls followed into adulthood (M(age)=41). Health indicators (C-Reactive Protein [CRP], hypertension, and pulmonary functioning) were assessed through blood collection and measurements by a registered nurse. Data were analyzed using hierarchical linear models to control for clustering of participants in childhood neighborhoods. Main effects showed that growing up Black predicted CRP and hypertension elevations, despite controlling for neglect and childhood family and neighborhood poverty and their interactions. Multivariate results showed that race and childhood adversities interacted to predict adult health outcomes. Childhood family poverty predicted increased risk for hypertension for Blacks, not Whites. In contrast, among Whites, childhood neglect predicted elevated CRP. Childhood neighborhood poverty interacted with childhood family poverty to predict pulmonary functioning in adulthood. Gender differences in health indicators were also observed. The effects of childhood neglect, childhood poverty, and growing up Black in the United States are manifest in physical health outcomes assessed 30 years later. Implications are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Individual differences in episodic memory abilities predict successful prospective memory output monitoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter Ball, B; Pitães, Margarida; Brewer, Gene A

    2018-02-07

    Output monitoring refers to memory for one's previously completed actions. In the context of prospective memory (PM) (e.g., remembering to take medication), failures of output monitoring can result in repetitions and omissions of planned actions (e.g., over- or under-medication). To be successful in output monitoring paradigms, participants must flexibly control attention to detect PM cues as well as engage controlled retrieval of previous actions whenever a particular cue is encountered. The current study examined individual differences in output monitoring abilities in a group of younger adults differing in attention control (AC) and episodic memory (EM) abilities. The results showed that AC ability uniquely predicted successful cue detection on the first presentation, whereas EM ability uniquely predicted successful output monitoring on the second presentation. The current study highlights the importance of examining external correlates of PM abilities and contributes to the growing body of research on individual differences in PM.

  2. Past, present and prospect of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) based model for sediment transport prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin; El-shafie, Ahmed; Mohtar, Wan Hanna Melini Wan; Yaseen, Zaher Mundher

    2016-10-01

    An accurate model for sediment prediction is a priority for all hydrological researchers. Many conventional methods have shown an inability to achieve an accurate prediction of suspended sediment. These methods are unable to understand the behaviour of sediment transport in rivers due to the complexity, noise, non-stationarity, and dynamism of the sediment pattern. In the past two decades, Artificial Intelligence (AI) and computational approaches have become a remarkable tool for developing an accurate model. These approaches are considered a powerful tool for solving any non-linear model, as they can deal easily with a large number of data and sophisticated models. This paper is a review of all AI approaches that have been applied in sediment modelling. The current research focuses on the development of AI application in sediment transport. In addition, the review identifies major challenges and opportunities for prospective research. Throughout the literature, complementary models superior to classical modelling.

  3. Low self-esteem prospectively predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Ulrich; Robins, Richard W; Roberts, Brent W

    2008-09-01

    Low self-esteem and depression are strongly correlated in cross-sectional studies, yet little is known about their prospective effects on each other. The vulnerability model hypothesizes that low self-esteem serves as a risk factor for depression, whereas the scar model hypothesizes that low self-esteem is an outcome, not a cause, of depression. To test these models, the authors used 2 large longitudinal data sets, each with 4 repeated assessments between the ages of 15 and 21 years and 18 and 21 years, respectively. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent levels of depression, but depression did not predict subsequent levels of self-esteem. These findings held for both men and women and after controlling for content overlap between the self-esteem and depression scales. Thus, the results supported the vulnerability model, but not the scar model, of self-esteem and depression.

  4. Appraisal in a Team Context: Perceptions of Cohesion Predict Competition Importance and Prospects for Coping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Svenja A; Eys, Mark A; Sadler, Pamela; Kleinert, Jens

    2015-10-01

    Athletes' precompetitive appraisal is important because it determines emotions, which may impact performance. When part of a team, athletes make their appraisal within a social context, and in this study we examined whether perceived team cohesion, as a characteristic of this context, related to appraisal. We asked 386 male and female intercollegiate team-sport athletes to respond to measures of cohesion and precompetitive appraisal before an in-season game. For males and females, across all teams, (a) an appraisal of increased competition importance was predicted by perceptions of higher task cohesion (individual level), better previous team performance, and a weaker opponent (team level) and (b) an appraisal of more positive prospects for coping with competitive demands was predicted by higher individual attractions to the group (individual level). Consequently, athletes who perceive their team as more cohesive likely appraise the pending competition as a challenge, which would benefit both emotions and performance.

  5. Fluid responsiveness predicted by transcutaneous partial pressure of oxygen in patients with circulatory failure: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jingyuan; Peng, Xiao; Pan, Chun; Cai, Shixia; Zhang, Xiwen; Xue, Ming; Yang, Yi; Qiu, Haibo

    2017-12-01

    Significant effort has been devoted to defining parameters for predicting fluid responsiveness. Our goal was to study the feasibility of predicting fluid responsiveness by transcutaneous partial pressure of oxygen (PtcO 2 ) in the critically ill patients. This was a single-center prospective study conducted in the intensive care unit of a tertiary care teaching hospital. Shock patients who presented with at least one clinical sign of inadequate tissue perfusion, defined as systolic blood pressure 40 mmHg in previously hypertensive patients or the need for vasopressive drugs; urine output 4 mmol/l, for less than 24 h in the absence of a contraindication for fluids were eligible to participate in the study. PtcO 2 was continuously recorded before and during a passive leg raising (PLR) test, and then before and after a 250 ml rapid saline infusion in 10 min. Fluid responsiveness is defined as a change in the stroke volume ≥10% after 250 ml of volume infusion. Thirty-four patients were included, and 14 responded to volume expansion. In the responders, the mean arterial pressure, central venous pressure, cardiac output, stroke volume and PtcO 2 increased significantly, while the heart rate decreased significantly by both PLR and volume expansion. Changes in the stroke volume induced either by PLR or volume expansion were significantly greater in responders than in non-responders. The correlation between the changes in PtcO 2 and stroke volume induced by volume expansion was significant. Volume expansion induced an increase in the PtcO 2 of 14% and PLR induced an increase in PtcO 2 of 13% predicted fluid responsiveness. This study suggested the changes in PtcO 2 induced by volume expansion and a PLR test predicted fluid responsiveness in critically ill patients. Trial registration NCT02083757.

  6. Predicting Community College Outcomes: Does High School CTE Participation Have a Significant Effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietrich, Cecile; Lichtenberger, Eric; Kamalludeen, Rosemaliza

    2016-01-01

    This study explored the relative importance of participation in high school career and technical education (CTE) programs in predicting community college outcomes. A hierarchical generalized linear model (HGLM) was used to predict community college outcome attainment among a random sample of direct community college entrants. Results show that…

  7. Risk prediction of emergency department revisit 30 days post discharge: a prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiying Hao

    Full Text Available Among patients who are discharged from the Emergency Department (ED, about 3% return within 30 days. Revisits can be related to the nature of the disease, medical errors, and/or inadequate diagnoses and treatment during their initial ED visit. Identification of high-risk patient population can help device new strategies for improved ED care with reduced ED utilization.A decision tree based model with discriminant Electronic Medical Record (EMR features was developed and validated, estimating patient ED 30 day revisit risk. A retrospective cohort of 293,461 ED encounters from HealthInfoNet (HIN, Maine's Health Information Exchange (HIE, between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2012, was assembled with the associated patients' demographic information and one-year clinical histories before the discharge date as the inputs. To validate, a prospective cohort of 193,886 encounters between January 1, 2013 and June 30, 2013 was constructed. The c-statistics for the retrospective and prospective predictions were 0.710 and 0.704 respectively. Clinical resource utilization, including ED use, was analyzed as a function of the ED risk score. Cluster analysis of high-risk patients identified discrete sub-populations with distinctive demographic, clinical and resource utilization patterns.Our ED 30-day revisit model was prospectively validated on the Maine State HIN secure statewide data system. Future integration of our ED predictive analytics into the ED care work flow may lead to increased opportunities for targeted care intervention to reduce ED resource burden and overall healthcare expense, and improve outcomes.

  8. Significant change of predictions related to the future of nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dumitrache, Ion

    2002-01-01

    During the last two decades of the 20th century, nuclear power contribution increased slowly in the world. This trend was mainly determined by the commissioning of new nuclear power plants, NPP, in the non-developed countries, except for Japan and South Korea. Almost all the forecasts offered the image of the stagnant nuclear power business. Sweden, Germany, Holland and Belgium Governments made clear the intention to stop the production of electricity based on fission. Recently, despite the negative effects on nuclear power of the terrorism events of September 11, 2001, the predictions related to the nuclear power future become much more optimistic. USA, Japan, South Korea and Canada made clear that new NPPs will offer their significant electricity contribution several decades, even after years 2020-2030. Moreover, several old NPP from USA obtained the license for an additional 20 years period of operation. The analysis indicated that most of the existing NPP in USA may increase the level of the maximum global power defined by the initial design. In the European Union the situation is much more complicated. About 35% of the electricity is based now on fission. Several countries, like Sweden and Germany, maintain the position of phasing out the NPPs, as soon as the licensed life-time is over. Finland decided to build a new power plant. France is very favorable to nuclear power, but does not need more energy. In the UK several very old NPP will be shut down, and companies like BNFL and British Energy intend to build new NPP, based on Westinghouse or AECL-Canada advanced reactors. Switzerland and Spain are favorable to the future use of nuclear power. In the eastern part of Europe, almost all the countries intend to base their electricity production on coal, fission, hydro and gas, nuclear contribution being significant. The most impressive increases of nuclear power output are related to Asia; in China, from 2.2 Gwe in 1999, to 18.7 Gwe in 2020, reference case, or 10

  9. Predictive modelling for swallowing dysfunction after primary (chemo)radiation: results of a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianen, Miranda E M C; Schilstra, Cornelis; Beetz, Ivo; Muijs, Christina T; Chouvalova, Olga; Burlage, Fred R; Doornaert, Patricia; Koken, Phil W; Leemans, C René; Rinkel, Rico N P M; de Bruijn, Marieke J; de Bock, G H; Roodenburg, Jan L N; van der Laan, Bernard F A M; Slotman, Ben J; Verdonck-de Leeuw, Irma M; Bijl, Hendrik P; Langendijk, Johannes A

    2012-10-01

    The purpose of this large multicentre prospective cohort study was to identify which dose volume histogram parameters and pre-treatment factors are most important to predict physician-rated and patient-rated radiation-induced swallowing dysfunction (RISD) in order to develop predictive models for RISD after curative (chemo) radiotherapy ((CH) RT). The study population consisted of 354 consecutive head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT. The primary endpoint was grade 2 or more swallowing dysfunction according to the RTOG/EORTC late radiation morbidity scoring criteria at 6 months after (CH) RT. The secondary endpoints were patient-rated swallowing complaints as assessed with the EORTC QLQ-H&N35 questionnaire. To select the most predictive variables a multivariate logistic regression analysis with bootstrapping was used. At 6 months after (CH) RT the bootstrapping procedure revealed that a model based on the mean dose to the superior pharyngeal constrictor muscle (PCM) and mean dose to the supraglottic larynx was most predictive. For the secondary endpoints different predictive models were found: for problems with swallowing liquids the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT). For problems with swallowing soft food the mean dose to the middle PCM, age (18-65 versus >65 years), tumour site (naso/oropharynx versus other sites) and radiation technique (3D-CRT versus IMRT) were the most predictive factors. For problems with swallowing solid food the most predictive factors were the mean dose to the superior PCM, the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx and age (18-65 versus >65 years). And for choking when swallowing the V60 of the oesophageal inlet muscle and the mean dose to the supraglottic larynx were the most predictive factors. Physician-rated and patient-rated RISD in head and neck cancer patients treated with (CH) RT cannot be predicted with univariate relationships between the

  10. The prognostic significance of HOTAIR for predicting clinical outcome in patients with digestive system tumors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Gaoxiang; Wang, Qiaoyan; Lv, Chunye; Qiang, Fulin; Hua, Qiuhan; Chu, Haiyan; Du, Mulong; Tong, Na; Jiang, Yejuan; Wang, Meilin; Zhang, Zhengdong; Wang, Jian; Gong, Weida

    2015-12-01

    Although some studies have assessed the prognostic value of HOTAIR in patients with digestive system tumors, the relationship between the HOTAIR and outcome of digestive system tumors remains unknown. The PubMed was searched to identify the eligible studies. Here, we performed a meta-analysis with 11 studies, including a total of 903 cases. Pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) of HOTAIR for cancer survival were calculated. We found that the pooled HR elevated HOTAIR expression in tumor tissues was 2.36 (95 % CI 1.88-2.97) compared with patients with low HOTAIR expression. Moreover, subgroup analysis revealed that HOTAIR overexpression was also markedly associated with short survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (HR 2.19, 95 % CI 1.62-2.94) and gastric cancer (HR 1.66, 95 % CI 1.02-2.68). In addition, up-regulated HOTAIR was significantly related to survival of digestive system cancer among the studies with more follow-up time (follow time ≥ 5 years) (HR 2.51, 95 % CI 1.99-3.17). When stratified by HR resource and number of patients, the result indicated consistent results with the overall analysis. Subgroup analysis on ethnicities did not change the prognostic influence of elevated HOTAIR expression. Additionally, we conducted an independent validation cohort including 71 gastric cancer cases, in which patients with up-regulated HOTAIR expression had an unfavorable outcome with HR of 2.10 (95 % CI 1.10-4.03). The results suggest that aberrant HOTAIR expression may serve as a candidate positive marker to predict the prognosis of patients with carcinoma of digestive system.

  11. Prediction of Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success in Entering Graduate Education by Using Back-Propagation Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadir, Elif

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine a neural network based approach to predict achievement in graduate education for Elementary Mathematics prospective teachers. With the help of this study, it can be possible to make an effective prediction regarding the students' achievement in graduate education with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). Two…

  12. Predicting Early Fatherhood and Whether Young Fathers Live with Their Children: Prospective Findings and Policy Recommendations. Discussion Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaffee, Sara R.; Caspi, Avshalom; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Taylor, Alan; Dickson, Nigel

    This prospective, birth cohort study addressed three questions: Which individual and family-of-origin characteristics predict the age at which young men make the transition to fatherhood? Do these characteristics predict how long young men live with their children? Are individual differences in the amount of time fathers spend living with their…

  13. Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

    2014-05-01

    Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

  14. Parameter definition using vibration prediction software leads to significant drilling performance improvements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amorim, Dalmo; Hanley, Chris Hanley; Fonseca, Isaac; Santos, Juliana [National Oilwell Varco, Houston TX (United States); Leite, Daltro J.; Borella, Augusto; Gozzi, Danilo [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A. (PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2012-07-01

    The understanding and mitigation of downhole vibration has been a heavily researched subject in the oil industry as it results in more expensive drilling operations, as vibrations significantly diminish the amount of effective drilling energy available to the bit and generate forces that can push the bit or the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA) off its concentric axis of rotation, producing high magnitude impacts with the borehole wall. In order to drill ahead, a sufficient amount of energy must be supplied by the rig to overcome the resistance of the drilling system, including the reactive torque of the system, drag forces, fluid pressure losses and energy dissipated by downhole vibrations, then providing the bit with the energy required to fail the rock. If the drill string enters resonant modes of vibration, not only does it decreases the amount of available energy to drill, but increases the potential for catastrophic downhole equipment and drilling bit failures. In this sense, the mitigation of downhole vibrations will result in faster, smoother, and cheaper drilling operations. A software tool using Finite Element Analysis (FEA) has been developed to provide better understanding of downhole vibration phenomena in drilling environments. The software tool calculates the response of the drilling system at various input conditions, based on the design of the wellbore along with the geometry of the Bottom Hole Assembly (BHA) and the drill string. It identifies where undesired levels of resonant vibration will be driven by certain combinations of specific drilling parameters, and also which combinations of drilling parameters will result in lower levels of vibration, so the least shocks, the highest penetration rate and the lowest cost per foot can be achieved. With the growing performance of personal computers, complex software systems modeling the drilling vibrations using FEA has been accessible to a wider audience of field users, further complimenting with real time

  15. Exploring the significance of human mobility patterns in social link prediction

    KAUST Repository

    Alharbi, Basma Mohammed; Zhang, Xiangliang

    2014-01-01

    Link prediction is a fundamental task in social networks. Recently, emphasis has been placed on forecasting new social ties using user mobility patterns, e.g., investigating physical and semantic co-locations for new proximity measure. This paper

  16. Clinical Significance of the Prognostic Nutritional Index for Predicting Short- and Long-Term Surgical Outcomes After Gastrectomy: A Retrospective Analysis of 7781 Gastric Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jee Youn; Kim, Hyoung-Il; Kim, You-Na; Hong, Jung Hwa; Alshomimi, Saeed; An, Ji Yeong; Cheong, Jae-Ho; Hyung, Woo Jin; Noh, Sung Hoon; Kim, Choong-Bai

    2016-05-01

    To evaluate the predictive and prognostic significance of the prognostic nutritional index (PNI) in a large cohort of gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy.Assessing a patient's immune and nutritional status, PNI has been reported as a predictive marker for surgical outcomes in various types of cancer.We retrospectively reviewed data from a prospectively maintained database of 7781 gastric cancer patients who underwent gastrectomy from January 2001 to December 2010 at a single center. From this data, we analyzed clinicopathologic characteristics, PNI, and short- and long-term surgical outcomes for each patient. We used the PNI value for the 10th percentile (46.70) of the study cohort as a cut-off for dividing patients into low and high PNI groups.Regarding short-term outcomes, multivariate analysis showed a low PNI (odds ratio [OR] = 1.505, 95% CI = 1.212-1.869, P cancer recurrence.

  17. Sarcopenia predicts readmission and mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Hu, Xiaoyi; Wang, Haozhong; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Qiukui; Dong, Birong

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of sarcopenia and investigate the associations between sarcopenia and long-term mortality and readmission in a population of elderly inpatients in acute care wards. We conducted a prospective observational study in the acute care wards of a teaching hospital in western China. The muscle mass was estimated according to a previously validated anthropometric equation. Handgrip strength was measured with a handheld dynamometer, and physical performance was measured via a 4 m walking test. Sarcopenia was defined according to the recommended diagnostic algorithm of the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia. The survival status and readmission information were obtained via telephone interviews at 12, 24, and 36 months during the 3 year follow-up period following the baseline investigation. Two hundred and eighty-eight participants (mean age: 81.1 ± 6.6 years) were included. Forty-nine participants (17.0%) were identified as having sarcopenia. This condition was similar in men and women (16.9% vs. 17.5%, respectively, P = 0.915). During the 3 year follow-up period, 49 men (22.7%) and 9 women (16.4%) died (P = 0.307). The mortality of sarcopenic participants was significantly increased compared with non-sarcopenic participants (40.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P sarcopenia was an independent predictor of 3 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.49; 95% confidential interval: 1.25-4.95) and readmission (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81; 95% confidential interval: 1.17-2.80). Sarcopenia, which is evaluated by a combination of anthropometric measures, gait speed, and handgrip strength, is valuable to predict hospital readmission and long-term mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Society on Sarcopenia, Cachexia and Wasting Disorders.

  18. Interleukin-22 predicts severity and death in advanced liver cirrhosis: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kronenberger Bernd

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Interleukin-22 (IL-22, recently identified as a crucial parameter of pathology in experimental liver damage, may determine survival in clinical end-stage liver disease. Systematic analysis of serum IL-22 in relation to morbidity and mortality of patients with advanced liver cirrhosis has not been performed so far. Methods This is a prospective cohort study including 120 liver cirrhosis patients and 40 healthy donors to analyze systemic levels of IL-22 in relation to survival and hepatic complications. Results A total of 71% of patients displayed liver cirrhosis-related complications at study inclusion. A total of 23% of the patients died during a mean follow-up of 196 ± 165 days. Systemic IL-22 was detectable in 74% of patients but only in 10% of healthy donors (P P = 0.006, hepatorenal syndrome (P P = 0.001. Patients with elevated IL-22 (>18 pg/ml, n = 57 showed significantly reduced survival compared to patients with regular (≤18 pg/ml levels of IL-22 (321 days versus 526 days, P = 0.003. Other factors associated with reduced overall survival were high CRP (≥2.9 mg/dl, P = 0.005, hazard ratio (HR 0.314, confidence interval (CI (0.141 to 0.702, elevated serum creatinine (P = 0.05, HR 0.453, CI (0.203 to 1.012, presence of liver-related complications (P = 0.028, HR 0.258, CI (0.077 to 0.862, model of end stage liver disease (MELD score ≥20 (P = 0.017, HR 0.364, CI (0.159 to 0.835 and age (P = 0.011, HR 0.955, CI (0.922 to 0.989. Adjusted multivariate Cox proportional-hazards analysis identified elevated systemic IL-22 levels as independent predictors of reduced survival (P = 0.007, HR 0.218, CI (0.072 to 0.662. Conclusions In patients with liver cirrhosis, elevated systemic IL-22 levels are predictive for reduced survival independently from age, liver-related complications, CRP, creatinine and the MELD score. Thus, processes that lead to a rise in systemic interleukin-22 may be relevant for prognosis of advanced liver

  19. Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma: prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H; van Til, Janine A; van Putten, Michel J A M; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

    2017-05-15

    We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis. Early prognosis contributes to communication between doctors and family, and may prevent inappropriate treatment. A prospective cohort study including 430 subsequent comatose patients after cardiac arrest was conducted at intensive care units of two teaching hospitals. Continuous EEG was started within 12 hours after cardiac arrest and continued up to 3 days. EEG patterns were visually classified as unfavorable (isoelectric, low-voltage, or burst suppression with identical bursts) or favorable (continuous patterns) at 12 and 24 hours after cardiac arrest. Outcome at 6 months was classified as good (cerebral performance category (CPC) 1 or 2) or poor (CPC 3, 4, or 5). Predictive values of EEG measures and cost-consequences from a hospital perspective were investigated, assuming EEG-based decision- making about withdrawal of life-sustaining treatment in the case of a poor predicted outcome. Poor outcome occurred in 197 patients (51% of those included in the analyses). Unfavorable EEG patterns at 24 hours predicted a poor outcome with specificity of 100% (95% CI 98-100%) and sensitivity of 29% (95% CI 22-36%). Favorable patterns at 12 hours predicted good outcome with specificity of 88% (95% CI 81-93%) and sensitivity of 51% (95% CI 42-60%). Treatment withdrawal based on an unfavorable EEG pattern at 24 hours resulted in a reduced mean ICU length of stay without increased mortality in the long term. This gave small cost reductions, depending on the timing of withdrawal. Early EEG contributes to reliable prediction of good or poor outcome of postanoxic coma and may lead to reduced length of ICU stay. In turn, this may bring small cost reductions.

  20. Esomeprazole use is independently associated with significant reduction of BMD: 1-year prospective comparative safety study of four proton pump inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahtiri, Elton; Islami, Hilmi; Hoxha, Rexhep; Qorraj-Bytyqi, Hasime; Rexhepi, Sylejman; Hoti, Kreshnik; Thaçi, Kujtim; Thaçi, Shpetim; Karakulak, Çağla

    2016-09-01

    Because of the efficacy of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), their the use is increasing dramatically. The risk of adverse effects of short-term PPI therapy is low, but there are important safety concerns for potential adverse effects of prolonged PPI therapy. Findings from studies assessing the association between PPI use and bone mineral density (BMD) and/or fracture risk are contradictory. The aim of this study was to prospectively assess potential association of PPI treatment with the 12-month change in BMD of the lumbar spine, femur neck, and total hip. The study was performed in 200 PPI users and 50 PPI nonusers. Lumbar spine (L1-L4), femur neck, and total hip BMD were measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at the baseline and at 12 months. A total of 209 subjects completed the entire 12 months of the study and were included in the final analysis. A Wilcoxon signed-rank test showed that at 12 months PPI use was associated with statistically significant reductions in femur neck and total hip T scores (Z = -2.764, p = 0.005 and Z = -3.281, p = 0.001, respectively). A multiple linear regression analysis showed that only esomeprazole added significantly to the prediction of total lumbar spine and femur neck T scores (p = 0.048 and p = 0.037, respectively). Compared with the baseline, 12 months of PPI treatment resulted in lower femur neck and total hip BMD T scores. Among the four PPIs studied, esomeprazole was independently associated with significant reduction of BMD, whereas omeprazole had no effects on BMD. Considering the widespread use of PPIs, BMD screening should be considered in the case of prolonged PPI use.

  1. Combining modularity, conservation, and interactions of proteins significantly increases precision and coverage of protein function prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sers Christine T

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background While the number of newly sequenced genomes and genes is constantly increasing, elucidation of their function still is a laborious and time-consuming task. This has led to the development of a wide range of methods for predicting protein functions in silico. We report on a new method that predicts function based on a combination of information about protein interactions, orthology, and the conservation of protein networks in different species. Results We show that aggregation of these independent sources of evidence leads to a drastic increase in number and quality of predictions when compared to baselines and other methods reported in the literature. For instance, our method generates more than 12,000 novel protein functions for human with an estimated precision of ~76%, among which are 7,500 new functional annotations for 1,973 human proteins that previously had zero or only one function annotated. We also verified our predictions on a set of genes that play an important role in colorectal cancer (MLH1, PMS2, EPHB4 and could confirm more than 73% of them based on evidence in the literature. Conclusions The combination of different methods into a single, comprehensive prediction method infers thousands of protein functions for every species included in the analysis at varying, yet always high levels of precision and very good coverage.

  2. Predicting medical complications after spine surgery: a validated model using a prospective surgical registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Michael J; Cizik, Amy M; Hamilton, Deven; Chapman, Jens R

    2014-02-01

    The possibility and likelihood of a postoperative medical complication after spine surgery undoubtedly play a major role in the decision making of the surgeon and patient alike. Although prior study has determined relative risk and odds ratio values to quantify risk factors, these values may be difficult to translate to the patient during counseling of surgical options. Ideally, a model that predicts absolute risk of medical complication, rather than relative risk or odds ratio values, would greatly enhance the discussion of safety of spine surgery. To date, there is no risk stratification model that specifically predicts the risk of medical complication. The purpose of this study was to create and validate a predictive model for the risk of medical complication during and after spine surgery. Statistical analysis using a prospective surgical spine registry that recorded extensive demographic, surgical, and complication data. Outcomes examined are medical complications that were specifically defined a priori. This analysis is a continuation of statistical analysis of our previously published report. Using a prospectively collected surgical registry of more than 1,476 patients with extensive demographic, comorbidity, surgical, and complication detail recorded for 2 years after surgery, we previously identified several risk factor for medical complications. Using the beta coefficients from those log binomial regression analyses, we created a model to predict the occurrence of medical complication after spine surgery. We split our data into two subsets for internal and cross-validation of our model. We created two predictive models: one predicting the occurrence of any medical complication and the other predicting the occurrence of a major medical complication. The final predictive model for any medical complications had a receiver operator curve characteristic of 0.76, considered to be a fair measure. The final predictive model for any major medical complications had

  3. Narcissism and Callous-Unemotional Traits Prospectively Predict Child Conduct Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jezior, Kristen L; McKenzie, Meghan E; Lee, Steve S

    2016-01-01

    Although narcissism and callous-unemotional (CU) traits are separable facets of psychopathy, their independent prediction of conduct problems (CP) among young children is not well known. In addition, above-average IQ was central to the original conceptualization of psychopathy, yet IQ is typically inversely associated with youth CP. We examined narcissism and CU traits as independent and prospective predictors of oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), conduct disorder (CD), and youth self-reported antisocial behavior, as well as their moderation by IQ. At baseline, parents and teachers separately rated narcissism and CU traits in 188 6-to-10-year-old children (47.9% non-White; 69.1% male; M = 7.34 years, SD = 1.09) with (n = 99) and without (n = 89) attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Approximately 2 years later, parents and teachers separately rated youth ODD and CD symptoms, and youth self-reported antisocial behavior. With control of baseline ADHD and ODD/CD symptoms, narcissism and CU traits independently and positively predicted ODD and CD symptoms at follow-up. IQ did not moderate any CP predictions from baseline narcissism or CU traits. These preliminary findings suggest that individual differences in narcissism and CU traits, even relatively early in development, are uniquely associated with emergent CP. Findings are considered within a developmental framework and the multiple pathways underlying the heterogeneity of CP are discussed.

  4. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash

    2017-02-24

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  5. Significant increase of Echinococcus multilocularis prevalencein foxes, but no increased predicted risk for humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Maas, M.; Dam-Deisz, W.D.C.; Roon, van A.M.; Takumi, K.; Giessen, van der J.W.B.

    2014-01-01

    The emergence of the zoonotic tapeworm Echinococcus multilocularis, causative agent ofalveolar echinococcosis (AE), poses a public health risk. A previously designed risk mapmodel predicted a spread of E. multilocularis and increasing numbers of alveolar echinococ-cosis patients in the province of

  6. The significance of parenchymal changes of acute cellular rejection in predicting chronic liver graft rejection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gouw, ASH; van den Heuvel, MC; van den Berg, AP; Slooff, NJH; de Jong, KP; Poppema, S

    2002-01-01

    Background. Chronic rejection (CR) in liver allografts shows a rapid onset and progressive course, leading to graft failure within the first year after transplantation. Most cases are preceded by episodes of acute cellular rejection (AR), but histological features predictive for the transition

  7. Significance of High Resolution GHRSST on prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon

    KAUST Repository

    Jangid, Buddhi Prakash; Kumar, Prashant; Attada, Raju; Kumar, Raj

    2017-01-01

    In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to assess the importance of very high resolution sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal rainfall prediction. Two different SST datasets available from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global model analysis and merged satellite product from Group for High Resolution SST (GHRSST) are used as a lower boundary condition in the WRF model for the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) 2010. Before using NCEP SST and GHRSST for model simulation, an initial verification of NCEP SST and GHRSST are performed with buoy measurements. It is found that approximately 0.4 K root mean square difference (RMSD) in GHRSST and NCEP SST when compared with buoy observations available over the Indian Ocean during 01 May to 30 September 2010. Our analyses suggest that use of GHRSST as lower boundary conditions in the WRF model improve the low level temperature, moisture, wind speed and rainfall prediction over ISM region. Moreover, temporal evolution of surface parameters such as temperature, moisture and wind speed forecasts associated with monsoon is also improved with GHRSST forcing as a lower boundary condition. Interestingly, rainfall prediction is improved with the use of GHRSST over the Western Ghats, which mostly not simulated in the NCEP SST based experiment.

  8. Predictive value of radioculography in patients with lumbago-sciatica. A prospective study (part 2)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espersen, J.O.; Kosteljanetz, M. (University Hospital, Aarhus (Denmark). Dept. of Neurosurgery); Halaburt, H.; Miletic, T. (University Hospital, Aarhus (Denmark). Dept. of Neuroradiology)

    1984-01-01

    One hundred patients with symptoms of lumbo-sacral root compression were prospectively and consecutively assigned to operation based alone on clinical findings. A preoperative myelogram was performed in all patients and described without a knowledge of the clinical features. All patients were explored for the clinically and myelographically relevant disc. When the myelogram was normal (16 patients) both lower lumbar interspaces were exposed. In 58 patients a herniated disc was revealed at surgery. Only 'myelographic herniation' with indentation of the contrast column was accompanied by a high frequency of disc herniation at surgery (73-87%). In cases with normal myelograms only 5% had a disc herniation. The severity of the myelographic finding was clearly correlated to the frequency of positive surgical findings and good outcomes. The preoperative radiculogram gives a high degree of certainty in the preoperative evaluation whether a surgical lesion is present or not and reveals a precise prediction of the outcome of surgery.

  9. Body dissatisfaction prospectively predicts depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Susan J; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne; Hannan, Peter J; Eisenberg, Marla E

    2006-12-01

    This research examined whether body dissatisfaction prospectively predicted depressive mood and low self-esteem in adolescent girls and boys 5 years later. Participants were early-adolescent girls (n = 440, Time 1 M age = 12.7 years) and boys (n = 366, Time 1 M age = 12.8 years) and midadolescent girls (n = 946, Time 1 M age = 15.8 years) and boys (n = 764, Time 1 M age = 15.9 years). After controlling for Time 1 of the relevant dependent variable, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and body mass index, Time 1 body dissatisfaction was a unique predictor of Time 2 depressive mood and low self-esteem in early-adolescent girls (depressive mood: F = 4.80, p self-esteem: F = 9.64, p p self-esteem: F = 9.38, p low self-esteem in both girls and boys but in different phases of adolescence.

  10. Baseline social amotivation predicts 1-year functioning in UHR subjects: A validation and prospective investigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Max; Abdul Rashid, Nur Amirah; Lee, Sara-Ann; Lim, Jeanette; Foussias, George; Fervaha, Gagan; Ruhrman, Stephan; Remington, Gary; Lee, Jimmy

    2015-12-01

    Social amotivation and diminished expression have been reported to underlie negative symptomatology in schizophrenia. In the current study we sought to establish and validate these negative symptom domains in a large cohort of schizophrenia subjects (n=887) and individuals who are deemed to be Ultra-High Risk (UHR) for psychosis. Confirmatory factor analysis conducted on PANSS item domains demonstrate that the dual negative symptom domains exist in schizophrenia and UHR subjects. We further sought to examine if these negative symptom domains were associated with functioning in UHR subjects. Linear regression analyses confirmed that social amotivation predicted functioning in UHR subjects prospectively at 1 year follow up. Results suggest that the association between social amotivation and functioning is generalisable beyond schizophrenia populations to those who are at-risk of developing psychosis. Social amotivation may be an important dimensional clinical construct to be studied across a range of psychiatric conditions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. and ECNP. All rights reserved.

  11. Shame and guilt as shared vulnerability factors: Shame, but not guilt, prospectively predicts both social anxiety and bulimic symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levinson, Cheri A; Byrne, Meghan; Rodebaugh, Thomas L

    2016-08-01

    Social anxiety disorder (SAD) and bulimia nervosa (BN) are highly comorbid. However, little is known about the shared vulnerability factors that prospectively predict both SA and BN symptoms. Two potential factors that have not yet been tested are shame and guilt. In the current study we tested if shame and guilt were shared vulnerability factors for SA and BN symptoms. Women (N=300) completed measures of SA symptoms, BN symptoms, state shame and guilt, and trait negative affect at two time points, two months apart. Utilizing structural equation modeling we tested a cross-sectional and prospective model of SA and BN vulnerability. We found that shame prospectively predicted both SA and BN symptoms. We did not find that guilt prospectively predicted SA or BN symptoms. However, higher levels of both BN and SA symptoms predicted increased guilt over time. We found support for shame as a shared prospective vulnerability factor between BN and SA symptoms. Interventions that focus on decreasing shame could potentially alleviate symptoms of BN and SA in one protocol. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. The Predictive Value of Integrated Pulmonary Index after Off-Pump Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting: A Prospective Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evgenia V. Fot

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThe early warning scores may increase the safety of perioperative period. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic and predictive role of Integrated Pulmonary Index (IPI after off-pump coronary artery bypass grafting (OPCAB.Materials and MethodsForty adult patients undergoing elective OPCAB were enrolled into a single-center prospective observational study. We assessed respiratory function using IPI that includes oxygen saturation, end-tidal CO2, respiratory rate, and pulse rate. In addition, we evaluated blood gas analyses and hemodynamics, including ECG, invasive arterial pressure, and cardiac index. The measurements were performed after transfer to the intensive care unit, after spontaneous breathing trial and at 2, 6, 12, and 18 h after extubation.Results and DiscussionThe value of IPI registered during respiratory support correlated weakly with cardiac index (rho = 0.4; p = 0.04 and ScvO2 (rho = 0.4, p = 0.02. After extubation, IPI values decreased significantly, achieving a minimum by 18 h. The IPI value ≤9 at 6 h after extubation was a predictor of complicated early postoperative period (AUC = 0.71; p = 0.04 observed in 13 patients.ConclusionIn off-pump coronary surgery, the IPI decreases significantly after tracheal extubation and may predict postoperative complications.

  13. The presence, predictive utility, and clinical significance of body dysmorphic symptoms in women with eating disorders

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Both eating disorders (EDs) and body dysmorphic disorder (BDD) are disorders of body image. This study aimed to assess the presence, predictive utility, and impact of clinical features commonly associated with BDD in women with EDs. Methods Participants recruited from two non-clinical cohorts of women, symptomatic and asymptomatic of EDs, completed a survey on ED (EDE-Q) and BDD (BDDE-SR) psychopathology, psychological distress (K-10), and quality of life (SF-12). Results A strong correlation was observed between the total BDDE-SR and the global EDE-Q scores (r = 0.79, p 0.05) measured appearance checking, reassurance-seeking, camouflaging, comparison-making, and social avoidance. In addition to these behaviors, inspection of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) revealed that BDDE-SR items measuring preoccupation and dissatisfaction with appearance were most predictive of ED cases (Se and Sp > 0.60). Higher total BDDE-SR scores were associated with greater distress on the K-10 and poorer quality of life on the SF-12 (all p < 0.01). Conclusions Clinical features central to the model of BDD are common in, predictive of, and associated with impairment in women with EDs. Practice implications are that these features be included in the assessment and treatment of EDs. PMID:24999401

  14. Functional Performances on Admission Predict In-Hospital Falls, Injurious Falls, and Fractures in Older Patients: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hars, Mélany; Audet, Marie-Claude; Herrmann, François; De Chassey, Jean; Rizzoli, René; Reny, Jean-Luc; Gold, Gabriel; Ferrari, Serge; Trombetti, Andrea

    2018-05-01

    Falls are common among older inpatients and remain a great challenge for hospitals. Despite the relevance of physical impairments to falls, the prognostic value of performance-based functional measures for in-hospital falls and injurious falls remains unknown. This study aimed to determine the predictive ability and accuracy of various functional tests administered at or close to admission in a geriatric hospital to identify in-hospital fallers and injurious fallers. In this prospective study, conducted in a geriatric hospital in Geneva, Switzerland, 807 inpatients (mean age 85.0 years) were subjected to a battery of functional tests administered by physiotherapists within 3 days (interquartile range 1 to 6) of admission, including Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), simplified Tinetti, and Timed Up and Go tests. Patients were prospectively followed up for falls and injurious falls until discharge using mandatory standardized incident report forms and electronic patients' records. During a median length of hospital stay of 23 days (interquartile range 14 to 36), 329 falls occurred in 189 (23.4%) patients, including 161 injurious falls of which 24 were serious. In-hospital fallers displayed significantly poorer functional performances at admission on all tests compared with non-fallers (p performances on all functional tests predicted in-hospital falls and injurious falls (p poor functional performances, as assessed by SPPB, are independent predictors of in-hospital falls, injurious falls, and fractures in patients admitted to a geriatric hospital. These findings should help to design preventive strategies for in-hospital falls and support the adoption of objective performance-based functional measures into routine hospital practice. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2018 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  15. Significance of satellite sign and spot sign in predicting hematoma expansion in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhiyuan; Zheng, Jun; Ali, Hasan; Guo, Rui; Li, Mou; Wang, Xiaoze; Ma, Lu; Li, Hao; You, Chao

    2017-11-01

    Hematoma expansion is related to poor outcome in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Recently, a non-enhanced computed tomography (CT) based finding, termed the 'satellite sign', was reported to be a novel predictor for poor outcome in spontaneous ICH. However, it is still unclear whether the presence of the satellite sign is related to hematoma expansion. Initial computed tomography angiography (CTA) was conducted within 6h after ictus. Satellite sign on non-enhanced CT and spot sign on CTA were detected by two independent reviewers. The sensitivity and specificity of both satellite sign and spot sign were calculated. Receiver-operator analysis was conducted to evaluate their predictive accuracy for hematoma expansion. This study included 153 patients. Satellite sign was detected in 58 (37.91%) patients and spot sign was detected in 38 (24.84%) patients. Among 37 patients with hematoma expansion, 22 (59.46%) had satellite sign and 23 (62.16%) had spot sign. The sensitivity and specificity of satellite sign for prediction of hematoma expansion were 59.46% and 68.97%, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of spot sign were 62.16% and 87.07%, respectively. The area under the curve (AUC) of satellite sign was 0.642 and the AUC of spot sign was 0.746. (P=0.157) CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that the satellite sign is an independent predictor for hematoma expansion in spontaneous ICH. Although spot sign has the higher predictive accuracy, satellite sign is still an acceptable predictor for hematoma expansion when CTA is unavailable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Prospective comparison among transient elastography, supersonic shear imaging, and ARFI imaging for predicting fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myoung Seok Lee

    Full Text Available The diagnostic performance of supersonic shear imaging (SSI in comparison with those of transient elastography (TE and acoustic radiation force impulse imaging (ARFI for staging fibrosis in nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD patients has not been fully assessed, especially in Asian populations with relatively lean NAFLD compared to white populations. Thus, we focused on comparing the diagnostic performances of TE, ARFI, and SSI for staging fibrosis in a head-to-head manner, and identifying the clinical, anthropometric, biochemical, and histological features which might affect liver stiffness measurement (LSM in our prospective biopsy-proven NAFLD cohort. In this study, ninety-four patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included prospectively. Liver stiffness was measured using TE, SSI, and ARFI within 1 month of liver biopsy. The diagnostic performance for staging fibrosis was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Anthropometric data were evaluated as covariates influencing LSM by regression analyses. Liver stiffness correlated with fibrosis stage (p < 0.05; the area under the ROC curve of TE (kPa, SSI (kPa, and ARFI (m/s were as follows: 0.757, 0.759, and 0.657 for significant fibrosis and 0.870, 0.809, and 0.873 for advanced fibrosis. Anthropometric traits were significant confounders affecting SSI, while serum liver injury markers significantly confounded TE and ARFI. In conclusion, the LSM methods had similar diagnostic performance for staging fibrosis in patients with NAFLD. Pre-LSM anthropometric evaluation may help predict the reliability of SSI.

  17. An approach to meaning and significance of the injured body in prospective physical education teachers through autobiographic narratives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo González Calvo

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This study shows how a sport injury can lead to an event that changes a prospective physical educator’s life and the consequences for the personal development that result from it. The same way, the data highlight the dilemma that this person faces to feel comfortable with their own body when his «self-image» has been distorted. In doing so, the article seeks to help us to understand how individual subjectivities expressed on autobiographical narratives about sport injuries go as far as to construct and understand the body and the meaning of the self arising after the injury. With this intention in mind, we rely on the possibilities that life story provides as method of self-analysis, awareness, and a way of connecting with the embodied experiences of physical education student teachers.

  18. Prostate cancer volume adds significantly to prostate-specific antigen in the prediction of early biochemical failure after external beam radiation therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Amico, Anthony V.; Propert, Kathleen J.

    1996-01-01

    Purpose: A new clinical pretreatment quantity that closely approximates the true prostate cancer volume is defined. Methods and Materials: The cancer-specific prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PSA density, prostate cancer volume (V Ca ), and the volume fraction of the gland involved with carcinoma (V Ca fx) were calculated for 227 prostate cancer patients managed definitively with external beam radiation therapy. 1. PSA density PSA/ultrasound prostate gland volume 2. Cancer-specific PSA = PSA - [PSA from benign epithelial tissue] 3. V Ca = Cancer-specific PSA/[PSA in serum per cm 3 of cancer] 4. V Ca fx = V Ca /ultrasound prostate gland volume A Cox multiple regression analysis was used to test whether any of these-clinical pretreatment parameters added significantly to PSA in predicting early postradiation PSA failure. Results: The prostate cancer volume (p = 0.039) and the volume fraction of the gland involved by carcinoma (p = 0.035) significantly added to the PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. Conversely, the PSA density and the cancer-specific PSA did not add significantly (p > 0.05) to PSA in predicting postradiation PSA failure. The 20-month actuarial PSA failure-free rates for patients with calculated tumor volumes of ≤0.5 cm 3 , 0.5-4.0 cm 3 , and >4.0 cm 3 were 92, 80, and 47%, respectively (p = 0.00004). Conclusion: The volume of prostate cancer (V Ca ) and the resulting volume fraction of cancer both added significantly to PSA in their ability to predict for early postradiation PSA failure. These new parameters may be used to select patients in prospective randomized trials that examine the efficacy of combining radiation and androgen ablative therapy in patients with clinically localized disease, who are at high risk for early postradiation PSA failure

  19. Maternal anxiety disorders predict excessive infant crying: a prospective longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzoldt, Johanna; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Wittich, Julia; Einsle, Franziska; Höfler, Michael; Martini, Julia

    2014-09-01

    To prospectively examine relations between maternal DSM-IV-TR anxiety and depressive disorders and excessive infant crying. Based on the prospective longitudinal Maternal Anxiety in Relation to Infant Development Study, n=306 expectant mothers were enrolled during early pregnancy and repeatedly interviewed until 16 months post partum. Lifetime and prospective information on maternal anxiety and depressive disorders was assessed via standardised diagnostic interviews (Composite International Diagnostic Interview for Women). Excessive crying (crying for ≥3 h per day on ≥3 days per week for ≥3 weeks) was assessed via Baby-DIPS. During the first 16 months after delivery, n=286 mother-infant dyads were available and included in the analyses. Excessive crying was reported by n=29 mothers (10.1%). Infants of mothers with anxiety disorders prior to pregnancy were at higher risk for excessive crying than infants of mothers without any anxiety disorder prior to pregnancy (OR=2.54, 95% CI 1.11 to 5.78, p=0.027). Risk was even increased when considering additionally incident anxiety disorders until delivery (OR=3.02, 95% CI 1.25 to 7.32, p=0.014) and until 16 months post partum (OR=2.87, 95% CI 1.13 to 7.28, p=0.027). Associations remained stable when adjusting for sociodemographic and perinatal covariates. Maternal depressive disorders prior to pregnancy were not significantly associated with excessive crying in this sample. Maternal lifetime and incident anxiety disorders revealed to be a robust predictor for excessive crying. Thus, early identification and monitoring of women with anxiety disorders is important to identify mother-infant dyads at risk for excessive crying. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  20. Unhappiness and dissatisfaction in doctors cannot be predicted by selectors from medical school application forms: A prospective, longitudinal study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferguson E

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Personal statements and referees' reports are widely used on medical school application forms, particularly in the UK, to assess the suitability of candidates for a career in medicine. However there are few studies which assess the validity of such information for predicting unhappiness or dissatisfaction with a career in medicine. Here we combine data from a long-term prospective study of medical student selection and training, with an experimental approach in which a large number of assessors used a paired comparison technique to predict outcome. Methods Data from a large-scale prospective study of students applying to UK medical schools in 1990 were used to identify 40 pairs of doctors, matched by sex, for whom personal statements and referees' reports were available, and who in a 2002/3 follow-up study, one pair member was very satisfied and the other very dissatisfied with medicine as a career. In 2005, 96 assessors, who were experienced medical school selectors, doctors, medical students or psychology students, used information from the doctors' original applications to judge which member of each pair of doctors was the happier, more satisfied doctor. Results None of the groups of assessors were significantly different from chance expectations in using applicants' personal statements and the referees' reports to predict actual future satisfaction or dissatisfaction, the distribution being similar to binomial expectations. However judgements of pairs of application forms from pairs of doctors showed a non-binomial distribution, indicating consensus among assessors as to which doctor would be the happy doctor (although the consensus was wrong in half the cases. Assessors taking longer to do the task concurred more. Consensus judgements seem mainly to be based on referees' predictions of academic achievement (even though academic achievement is not actually a valid predictor of happiness or satisfaction. Conclusion

  1. Use of data mining to predict significant factors and benefits of bilateral cochlear implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos-Miguel, Angel; Perez-Zaballos, Teresa; Perez, Daniel; Falconb, Juan Carlos; Ramosb, Angel

    2015-11-01

    Data mining (DM) is a technique used to discover pattern and knowledge from a big amount of data. It uses artificial intelligence, automatic learning, statistics, databases, etc. In this study, DM was successfully used as a predictive tool to assess disyllabic speech test performance in bilateral implanted patients with a success rate above 90%. 60 bilateral sequentially implanted adult patients were included in the study. The DM algorithms developed found correlations between unilateral medical records and Audiological test results and bilateral performance by establishing relevant variables based on two DM techniques: the classifier and the estimation. The nearest neighbor algorithm was implemented in the first case, and the linear regression in the second. The results showed that patients with unilateral disyllabic test results below 70% benefited the most from a bilateral implantation. Finally, it was observed that its benefits decrease as the inter-implant time increases.

  2. Protective Factors, Coping Appraisals, and Social Barriers Predict Mental Health Following Community Violence: A Prospective Test of Social Cognitive Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Andrew J; Felix, Erika D; Benight, Charles C; Jones, Russell T

    2017-06-01

    This study tested social cognitive theory of posttraumatic adaptation in the context of mass violence, hypothesizing that pre-event protective factors (general self-efficacy and perceived social support) would reduce posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) and depression severity through boosting post-event coping self-efficacy appraisals (mediator). We qualified hypotheses by predicting that post-event social support barriers would disrupt (moderate) the health-promoting indirect effects of pre-event protective factors. With a prospective longitudinal sample, we employed path models with bootstrapping resampling to test hypotheses. Participants included 70 university students (71.4% female; 40.0% White; 34.3% Asian; 14.3% Hispanic) enrolled during a mass violence event who completed surveys one year pre-event and 5-6 months post-event. Results revealed significant large effects in predicting coping self-efficacy (mastery model, R 2 = .34; enabling model, R 2 = .36), PTSS (mastery model, R 2 = .35; enabling model, R 2 = .41), and depression severity (mastery model, R 2 = .43; enabling model, R 2 = .46). Overall findings supported study hypotheses, showing that at low levels of post-event social support barriers, pre-event protective factors reduced distress severity through boosting coping self-efficacy. However, as post-event social support barriers increased, the indirect, distress-reducing effects of pre-event protective factors were reduced to nonsignificance. Study implications focus on preventative and responsive intervention. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Traumatic Stress Studies.

  3. Significance of collateral vessels on the prediction of superior vena cava syndrome on CT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Hyun Sook; Kim, Hyung Jin; Lee, Hyeng Gon; Ahn, In Oak; Chung, Sung Hoon

    1993-01-01

    Although visible collateral vessels on computed tomography (CT) has been considered as an important finding in superior vena cava (SVC) syndrome, there is no systematical analysis concerning correlation between the CT evidence of collateral vessels and clinical evidence of SVC syndrome. The purpose of this study is to evaluate how accurately we predict the clinical presence of SVC syndrome by the collateral vessels in patients with apparent SVC obstruction in CT. Forty seven patients having a CT evidence of obstruction or compression of SVC and/or its major tributaries were included in this study. Lung cancer was the most common underlying disease (n=40). The enhanced CT scans were obtained through either arm vein using a combined bolus and drip-infusion technique. Analyzing the CT scans, we particularly paid attention to the site and pattern of venous compromise, presence of collateral vessels, and if present, their location, without knowing whether symptoms and sign were present or nor, and then compared them with clinical data by a thorough review of charts, To verify the frequency of visible collateral vessels in normal subjects, we also evaluated the CT scans of 50 patients without mediastinal disease and clinical SVC syndrome as a control group. On CT, collateral vessels were found in 24 patients, among whom three patient had a single collateral and 21 patients had two or more collateral channels. There were two false positive cases, in which clinically overt SVC syndrome appeared 10 days and three months after CT examination respectively, and one false negative case. The presence of collateral vessels on CT, respectively, and one false negative case. The presence of collateral vessels on CT, regardless of the number and location of collateral vessels and pattern of venous obstruction, was a good clue for predicting the presence of clinical SVC syndrome with the sensitivity and the specificity of 95.7% and 91.7%, respectively. In control group, collateral

  4. The clinical significance and risk factors of anti-platelet factor 4/heparin antibody on maintenance hemodialysis patients: a two-year prospective follow-up.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delong Zhao

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Heparin-induced thrombocytopenia is an immune response mediated by anti-PF4/heparin antibody, which is clinically characterized by thrombocytopenia and thromboembolic events. In this study, a prospective and multi-center clinical investigation 1 determined the positive rate of anti-PF4/heparin antibody in maintenance hemodialysis patients in China, 2 identified the related risk factors, and 3 further explored the effect of the anti-PF4/heparin antibody on bleeding, thromboembolic events, and risk of death in the patients. METHODS: The serum anti-PF4/heparin antibody was measured in 661 patients from nine hemodialysis centers, detected by IgG-specific ELISA and followed by confirmation with excess heparin. Risk factors of these patients were analyzed. Based on a two-year follow-up, the association between the anti-PF4/heparin antibody and bleeding, thromboembolic events, and risk of death in the patients was investigated. RESULTS: 1 The positivity rate of the anti-PF4/heparin antibody in maintenance hemodialysis patients was 5.6%. With diabetes as an independent risk factor, the positivity rate of the anti-PF4/heparin antibody decreased in the patients undergoing weekly dialyses ≥3 times. 2 The positivity rate of the anti-PF4/heparin antibody was not related to the occurrence of clinical thromboembolic events and was not a risk factor for death within two years in maintenance hemodialysis patients. 3 Negativity for the anti-PF4/heparin antibody combined with a reduction of the platelet count or combined with the administration of antiplatelet drugs yielded a significant increase in bleeding events. However, the composite determination of the anti-PF4/heparin antibody and thrombocytopenia, as well as the administration of antiplatelet drugs, was not predictive for the risk of thromboembolic events in the maintenance hemodialysis patients. CONCLUSIONS: A single detection of the anti-PF4/heparin antibody did not predict the occurrence

  5. Smoking behaviors and attitudes during adolescence prospectively predict support for tobacco control policies in adulthood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macy, Jonathan T; Chassin, Laurie; Presson, Clark C

    2012-07-01

    Several cross-sectional studies have examined factors associated with support for tobacco control policies. The current study utilized a longitudinal design to test smoking status and attitude toward smoking measured in adolescence as prospective predictors of support for tobacco control policies measured in adulthood. Participants (N = 4,834) were from a longitudinal study of a Midwestern community-based sample. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses tested adolescent smoking status and attitude toward smoking as prospective predictors (after controlling for sociodemographic factors, adult smoking status, and adult attitude toward smoking) of support for regulation of smoking in public places, discussion of the dangers of smoking in public schools, prohibiting smoking in bars, eliminating smoking on television and in movies, prohibiting smoking in restaurants, and increasing taxes on cigarettes. Participants who smoked during adolescence demonstrated more support for discussion of the dangers of smoking in public schools and less support for increasing taxes on cigarettes but only among those who smoked as adults. Those with more positive attitudes toward smoking during adolescence demonstrated less support as adults for prohibiting smoking in bars and eliminating smoking on television and in movies. Moreover, a significant interaction indicated that those with more positive attitudes toward smoking as adolescents demonstrated less support as adults for prohibiting smoking in restaurants, but only if they became parents as adults. This study's findings suggest that interventions designed to deter adolescent smoking may have future benefits in increasing support for tobacco control policies.

  6. Predicting remembering and forgetting of autobiographical memories in children and adults: a 4-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Patricia J; Larkina, Marina

    2016-11-01

    Preservation and loss to forgetting of autobiographical memories is a focus in both the adult and developmental literatures. In both, there are comparative arguments regarding rates of forgetting. Children are assumed to forget autobiographical memories more rapidly than adults, and younger children are assumed to forget more rapidly than older children. Yet few studies can directly inform these comparisons: few feature children and adults, and few prospectively track the survival of specific autobiographical memories over time. In a 4-year prospective study, we obtained autobiographical memories from children 4, 6, and 8 years, and adults. We tested recall of different subsets of the events after 1, 2, and 3 years. Accelerated rates of forgetting were apparent among all child groups relative to adults; within the child groups, 4- and 6-year-olds had accelerated forgetting relative to 8-year-olds. The differences were especially pronounced in open-ended recall. The thematic coherence of initial memory reports also was a significant predictor of the survival of specific memories. The pattern of findings is consistent with suggestions that the adult distribution of autobiographical memories is achieved as the quality of memory traces increases (here measured by thematic coherence) and the rate of forgetting decreases.

  7. Predicting remembering and forgetting of autobiographical memories in children and adults: A 4-year prospective study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Patricia J.; Larkina, Marina

    2015-01-01

    Preservation and loss to forgetting of autobiographical memories is a focus in both the adult and developmental literatures. In both, there are comparative arguments regarding rates of forgetting. Children are assumed to forget autobiographical memories more rapidly than adults, and younger children are assumed to forget more rapidly than older children. Yet few studies can directly inform these comparisons: few feature children and adults, and few prospectively track the survival of specific autobiographical memories over time. In a 4-year prospective study, we obtained autobiographical memories from children 4, 6, and 8 years, and adults. We tested recall of different subsets of the events after 1, 2, and 3 years. Accelerated rates of forgetting were apparent among all child groups relative to adults; within the child groups, 4- and 6-year-olds had accelerated forgetting relative to 8-year-olds. The differences were especially pronounced in open-ended recall. The thematic coherence of initial memory reports also was a significant predictor of the survival of specific memories. The pattern of findings is consistent with suggestions that the adult distribution of autobiographical memories is achieved as the quality of memory traces increases (here measured by thematic coherence) and the rate of forgetting decreases. PMID:26566236

  8. The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing: a prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Oostrom, Iris; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J.; Bröcker-Vriends, Annette H. J. T.; van Asperen, Christi J.; Sijmons, Rolf H.; Seynaeve, Caroline; van Gool, Arthur R.; Klijn, Jan G. M.; Tibben, Aad

    2007-01-01

    This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related

  9. The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing: a prospective study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oostrom, I.I.H. van; Meijers-Heijboer, H.; Duivenvoorden, H.J.; Brocker-Vriends, A.H.; Asperen, C.J. van; Sijmons, R.H.; Seynaeve, C.; Gool, A.R. van; Klijn, J.G.M.; Tibben, A.

    2007-01-01

    This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related

  10. The common sense model of self-regulation and psychological adjustment to predictive genetic testing : a prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Oostrom, Iris; Meijers-Heijboer, Hanne; Duivenvoorden, Hugo J.; Broecker-Vriends, Annette H. J. T.; van Asperen, Christi J.; Sijmons, Rolf H.; Seynaeve, Caroline; Van Gool, Arthur R.; Klijn, Jan G. M.; Tibben, Aad

    2007-01-01

    This prospective study explored the contribution of illness representations and coping to cancer-related distress in unaffected individuals undergoing predictive genetic testing for an identified mutation in BRCA1/2 (BReast CAncer) or an HNPCC (Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer)-related

  11. Meta-Analysis of Predictive Significance of the Black Hole Sign for Hematoma Expansion in Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Jun; Yu, Zhiyuan; Guo, Rui; Li, Hao; You, Chao; Ma, Lu

    2018-04-27

    Hematoma expansion is related to unfavorable prognosis in intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). The black hole sign is a novel marker on non-contrast computed tomography for predicting hematoma expansion. However, its predictive values are different in previous studies. Thus, this meta-analysis was conducted to evaluate the predictive significance of the black hole sign for hematoma expansion in ICH. A systematic literature search was performed. Original researches on the association between the black hole sign and hematoma expansion in ICH were included. Sensitivity and specificity were pooled to assess the predictive accuracy. Summary receiver operating characteristics curve (SROC) was developed. Deeks' funnel plot asymmetry test was used to assess the publication bias. Five studies with a total of 1495 patients were included in this study. The pooled sensitivity and specificity of the black hole sign for predicting hematoma expansion were 0.30 and 0.91, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.78 in SROC curve. There was no significant publication bias. This meta-analysis shows that the black hole sign is a helpful imaging marker for predicting hematoma expansion in ICH. Although the black hole sign has a relatively low sensitivity, its specificity is relatively high. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Predicting Reading and Spelling Disorders: A 4-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Caudek, Corrado; Pinto, Giuliana

    2016-01-01

    In this 4-year prospective cohort study, children with a reading and spelling disorder, children with a spelling impairment, and children without a reading and/or spelling disorder (control group) in a transparent orthography were identified in third grade, and their emergent literacy performances in kindergarten compared retrospectively. Six hundred and forty-two Italian children participated. This cohort was followed from the last year of kindergarten to third grade. In kindergarten, the children were assessed in phonological awareness, conceptual knowledge of writing systems and textual competence. In third grade, 18 children with a reading and spelling impairment and 13 children with a spelling impairment were identified. Overall, conceptual knowledge of the writing system was the only statistically significant predictor of the clinical samples. No differences were found between the two clinical samples.

  13. A new model using routinely available clinical parameters to predict significant liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wai-Kay Seto

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We developed a predictive model for significant fibrosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB based on routinely available clinical parameters. METHODS: 237 treatment-naïve CHB patients [58.4% hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg-positive] who had undergone liver biopsy were randomly divided into two cohorts: training group (n = 108 and validation group (n = 129. Liver histology was assessed for fibrosis. All common demographics, viral serology, viral load and liver biochemistry were analyzed. RESULTS: Based on 12 available clinical parameters (age, sex, HBeAg status, HBV DNA, platelet, albumin, bilirubin, ALT, AST, ALP, GGT and AFP, a model to predict significant liver fibrosis (Ishak fibrosis score ≥3 was derived using the five best parameters (age, ALP, AST, AFP and platelet. Using the formula log(index+1 = 0.025+0.0031(age+0.1483 log(ALP+0.004 log(AST+0.0908 log(AFP+1-0.028 log(platelet, the PAPAS (Platelet/Age/Phosphatase/AFP/AST index predicts significant fibrosis with an area under the receiving operating characteristics (AUROC curve of 0.776 [0.797 for patients with ALT <2×upper limit of normal (ULN] The negative predictive value to exclude significant fibrosis was 88.4%. This predictive power is superior to other non-invasive models using common parameters, including the AST/platelet/GGT/AFP (APGA index, AST/platelet ratio index (APRI, and the FIB-4 index (AUROC of 0.757, 0.708 and 0.723 respectively. Using the PAPAS index, 67.5% of liver biopsies for patients being considered for treatment with ALT <2×ULN could be avoided. CONCLUSION: The PAPAS index can predict and exclude significant fibrosis, and may reduce the need for liver biopsy in CHB patients.

  14. Evaluation of the white finger risk prediction model in ISO 5349 suggests need for prospective studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gemne, G; Lundström, R

    1996-05-01

    The risk prediction model for white fingers in Annex A of ISO 5349 is not likely to offer protection from all tools and all work processes. It is also probable that some work place changes it has initiated are either redundant or lack the intended effect. The main reasons for these shortcomings are the following. The often demonstrated disagreement between predicted and observed white fingers occurrence may be related to the fact that the model is based on latency data. This leads to an overestimation, to an unknown extent, of true group risks. A possible healthy worker effect, resulting in underestimation, has not been considered, and uncertainty because of recall bias is connected with using latency as effect variable in a slowly developing disorder like white fingers. The diagnostic criteria for white fingers have varied over the years, causing a possible inclusion of circulatory disturbances other than those induced by vibration. Among insufficiently clarified matters unrelated to vibration are variations in individual susceptibility and other host factors that modify vibration effects, uncertainty concerning daily or total effective exposure, and the fact that variation in work methods and processes as well as ergonomic factors other than vibration tend to make different groups incomparable form the viewpoint of risk of injury. Lack of sufficient data on vibration measurements and employment durations add to the uncertainty, as do variations in tool conditions (grinder wheels, etc) and inherent difficulties in measurement. Finally, the ISO 5349 frequency-weighting curve only relates to acute sensory effects rather than chronic effects on vascular functions like white fingers, and directional difference in sensitivity has not been incorporated in the curve. Data on exposure-response relationships are needed from prospective studies that monitor the dose of exposure to special vibration types and all relevant environmental agents, employ diagnostics with good

  15. A prediction rule for shoulder pain related sick leave: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van der Heijden Geert JMG

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Shoulder pain is common in primary care, and has an unfavourable outcome in many patients. Information about predictors of shoulder pain related sick leave in workers is scarce and inconsistent. The objective was to develop a clinical prediction rule for calculating the risk of shoulder pain related sick leave for individual workers, during the 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Methods A prospective cohort study with 6 months follow-up was conducted among 350 workers with a new episode of shoulder pain. Potential predictors included the results of a physical examination, sociodemographic variables, disease characteristics (duration of symptoms, sick leave in the 2 months prior to consultation, pain intensity, disability, comorbidity, physical activity, physical work load, psychological factors, and the psychosocial work environment. The main outcome measure was sick leave during 6 months following first consultation in general practice. Results Response rate to the follow-up questionnaire at 6 months was 85%. During the 6 months after first consultation 30% (89/298 of the workers reported sick leave. 16% (47 reported 10 days sick leave or more. Sick leave during this period was predicted in a multivariable model by a longer duration of sick leave prior to consultation, more shoulder pain, a perceived cause of strain or overuse during regular activities, and co-existing psychological complaints. The discriminative ability of the prediction model was satisfactory with an area under the curve of 0.70 (95% CI 0.64–0.76. Conclusion Although 30% of all workers with shoulder pain reported sick leave during follow-up, the duration of sick leave was limited to a few days in most workers. We developed a prediction rule and a score chart that can be used by general practitioners and occupational health care providers to calculate the absolute risk of sick leave in individual workers with shoulder pain, which

  16. Diagnostic value of thallium-201 myocardial perfusion IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction to predict clinically significant and insignificant fractional flow reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Haruki; Takahashi, Teruyuki; Ohashi, Norihiko; Tanaka, Koichi; Okada, Takenori; Kihara, Yasuki

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The aim of this study was to clarify the predictive value of fractional flow reserve (FFR) determined by myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) using thallium (Tl)-201 IQ-SPECT without and with computed tomography-based attenuation correction (CT-AC) for patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). We assessed 212 angiographically identified diseased vessels using adenosine-stress Tl-201 MPI-IQ-SPECT/CT in 84 consecutive, prospectively identified patients with stable CAD. We compared the FFR in 136 of the 212 diseased vessels using visual semiquantitative interpretations of corresponding territories on MPI-IQ-SPECT images without and with CT-AC. FFR inversely correlated most accurately with regional summed difference scores (rSDS) in images without and with CT-AC (r = −0.584 and r = −0.568, respectively, both P system can predict FFR at an optimal cut-off of <0.80, and we propose a novel application of CT-AC to MPI-IQ-SPECT for predicting clinically significant and insignificant FFR even in nonobese patients. PMID:29390486

  17. Validating prediction scales of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Spain: the SPREDIA-2 population-based prospective cohort study protocol

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinero-Fort, Miguel Ángel; de Burgos-Lunar, Carmen; Mostaza Prieto, José; Lahoz Rallo, Carlos; Abánades-Herranz, Juan Carlos; Gómez-Campelo, Paloma; Laguna Cuesta, Fernando; Estirado De Cabo, Eva; García Iglesias, Francisca; González Alegre, Teresa; Fernández Puntero, Belén; Montesano Sánchez, Luis; Vicent López, David; Cornejo Del Río, Víctor; Fernández García, Pedro J; Sabín Rodríguez, Concesa; López López, Silvia; Patrón Barandío, Pedro

    2015-01-01

    Introduction The incidence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasing worldwide. When diagnosed, many patients already have organ damage or advance subclinical atherosclerosis. An early diagnosis could allow the implementation of lifestyle changes and treatment options aimed at delaying the progression of the disease and to avoid cardiovascular complications. Different scores for identifying undiagnosed diabetes have been reported, however, their performance in populations of southern Europe has not been sufficiently evaluated. The main objectives of our study are: to evaluate the screening performance and cut-off points of the main scores that identify the risk of undiagnosed T2DM and prediabetes in a Spanish population, and to develop and validate our own predictive models of undiagnosed T2DM (screening model), and future T2DM (prediction risk model) after 5-year follow-up. As a secondary objective, we will evaluate the atherosclerotic burden of the population with undiagnosed T2DM. Methods and analysis Population-based prospective cohort study with baseline screening, to evaluate the performance of the FINDRISC, DANISH, DESIR, ARIC and QDScore, against the gold standard tests: Fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance and/or HbA1c. The sample size will include 1352 participants between the ages of 45 and 74 years. Analysis: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, likelihood ratio positive, likelihood ratio negative and receiver operating characteristic curves and area under curve. Binary logistic regression for the first 700 individuals (derivation) and last 652 (validation) will be performed. All analyses will be calculated with their 95% CI; statistical significance will be p<0.05. Ethics and dissemination The study protocol has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Carlos III Hospital (Madrid). The score performance and predictive model will be presented in medical conferences, workshops

  18. Intraoperative ultrasound for prediction of hepatocellular carcinoma biological behaviour: Prospective comparison with pathology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santambrogio, Roberto; Cigala, Claudia; Barabino, Matteo; Maggioni, Marco; Scifo, Giovanna; Bruno, Savino; Bertolini, Emanuela; Opocher, Enrico; Bulfamante, Gaetano

    2018-02-01

    Preoperative prediction of both microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma and histological grade of hepatocellular carcinoma is pivotal to treatment planning and prognostication. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether some intraoperative ultrasound features correlate with both the presence of same histological patterns and differentiation grade of hepatocellular carcinoma on the histological features of the primary resected tumour. All patients with single, small hepatocellular carcinoma that underwent hepatic resection were included in this prospective double-blind study: the intraoperative ultrasound patterns of nodule were registered and compared with similar histological features. A total of 179 patients were enclosed in this study: 97 (54%) patients (34% in HCC ≤2 cm) had a microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma at ultrasound examination, while 82 (46%) patients (41% in HCC ≤2 cm) at histological evaluation. Statistical analysis showed that diameters ≤2 cm, presence of satellites and microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma at ultrasound examination were the variables with the strongest association with the histological findings. In the multivariate analysis, the vascular microinfiltration and infiltrative hepatocellular carcinoma aspect were independent predictors for grading. In patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma, the prevalence of microinvasive hepatocellular carcinoma is high, even in cases of HCC ≤2 cm. Intraoperative ultrasound findings strongly correlated with histopathological criteria in detecting microinvasive patterns and are useful to predict neoplastic differentiation. The knowledge of these features prior to treatment are highly desired (this can be obtained by an intraoperative ultrasound examination), as they could help in providing optimal management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. The predictive value of ePAQ in the urodynamic diagnoses-A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCooty, Shanteela; Nightingale, Peter; Latthe, Pallavi

    2018-01-01

    To assess whether the electronic Personal Assessment Questionnaire-Pelvic Floor (ePAQ-PF) had accuracy in predicting the urodynamic diagnoses of Detrusor Overactivity (DO) and/or Urodynamic Stress Incontinence (USI). Tertiary urogynaecology unit linked to an academic university teaching hospital. Consecutive women who presented with lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and were booked to have urodynamic studies. Women completed an ePAQ-PF prior to having urodynamics (UDS) by clinicians who were blinded to the ePAQ-PF results while conducting this procedure. Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves were constructed for predictive accuracy of overactive bladder (OAB) score in DO and of stress urinary incontinence (SUI) score in USI. Prospective cohort study designed to meet the requirements of the standards for reporting of diagnostic accuracy (STARD). 390 women with a mean age of 54.2 (range 21-92) years were recruited. The majority (n = 294; 75%) were White Caucasian and had two children (n = 157; 40.3%). Of them, 67.2% (n = 262) had DO and USI was confirmed in 21.5% (n = 84). The area under the ROC curve for DO was 0.704 (95% confidence interval 0.650-0.759) and for USI it was 0.731 (95% confidence interval 0.652-0.778). The OAB and SUI scores on the ePAQ-PF demonstrated that they are fair predictors in diagnosing DO and USI. As the OAB and SUI score on ePAQ-PF increased so did the likelihood of DO (up to a score of 75) and USI on UDS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. CDOCKER and lambda λ -dynamics for prospective prediction in D3R Grand Challenge 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Xinqiang; Hayes, Ryan L.; Vilseck, Jonah Z.; Charles, Murchtricia K.; Brooks, Charles L.

    2018-01-01

    The opportunity to prospectively predict ligand bound poses and free energies of binding to the Farnesoid X Receptor in the D3R Grand Challenge 2 provided a useful exercise to evaluate CHARMM based docking (CDOCKER) and λ-dynamics methodologies for use in "real-world" applications in computer aided drug design. In addition to measuring their current performance, several recent methodological developments have been analyzed retrospectively to highlight best procedural practices in future applications. For pose prediction with CDOCKER, when the protein structure used for rigid receptor docking was close to the crystallographic holo structure, reliable poses were obtained. Benzimidazoles, with a known holo receptor structure, were successfully docked with an average RMSD of 0.97 Å. Other non-benzimidazole ligands displayed less accuracy largely because the receptor structures we chose for docking were too different from the experimental holo structures. However, retrospective analysis has shown that when these ligands were re-docked into their holo structures, the average RMSD dropped to 1.18 Å for all ligands. When sulfonamides and spiros were docked with the apo structure, which agrees more with their holo structure than the structures we chose, five out of six ligands were correctly docked. These docking results emphasize the need for flexible receptor docking approaches. For λ-dynamics techniques, including multisite λ-dynamics (MSλD), reasonable agreement with experiment was observed for the 33 ligands investigated; root mean square errors of 2.08 and 1.67 kcal/mol were obtained for free energy sets 1 and 2, respectively. Retrospectively, soft-core potentials, adaptive landscape flattening, and biasing potential replica exchange (BP-REX) algorithms were critical to model large substituent perturbations with sufficient precision and within restrictive timeframes, such as was required with participation in Grand Challenge 2. These developments, their

  1. Accurate prediction of the functional significance of single nucleotide polymorphisms and mutations in the ABCA1 gene.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liam R Brunham

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available The human genome contains an estimated 100,000 to 300,000 DNA variants that alter an amino acid in an encoded protein. However, our ability to predict which of these variants are functionally significant is limited. We used a bioinformatics approach to define the functional significance of genetic variation in the ABCA1 gene, a cholesterol transporter crucial for the metabolism of high density lipoprotein cholesterol. To predict the functional consequence of each coding single nucleotide polymorphism and mutation in this gene, we calculated a substitution position-specific evolutionary conservation score for each variant, which considers site-specific variation among evolutionarily related proteins. To test the bioinformatics predictions experimentally, we evaluated the biochemical consequence of these sequence variants by examining the ability of cell lines stably transfected with the ABCA1 alleles to elicit cholesterol efflux. Our bioinformatics approach correctly predicted the functional impact of greater than 94% of the naturally occurring variants we assessed. The bioinformatics predictions were significantly correlated with the degree of functional impairment of ABCA1 mutations (r2 = 0.62, p = 0.0008. These results have allowed us to define the impact of genetic variation on ABCA1 function and to suggest that the in silico evolutionary approach we used may be a useful tool in general for predicting the effects of DNA variation on gene function. In addition, our data suggest that considering patterns of positive selection, along with patterns of negative selection such as evolutionary conservation, may improve our ability to predict the functional effects of amino acid variation.

  2. Predictive and associated factors of psychiatric disorders after traumatic brain injury: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gould, Kate Rachel; Ponsford, Jennie Louise; Johnston, Lisa; Schönberger, Michael

    2011-07-01

    Psychiatric disorders are common and often debilitating following traumatic brain injury (TBI). However, there is little consensus within the literature regarding the risk factors for post-injury psychiatric disorders. A 1-year prospective study was conducted to examine which pre-injury, injury-related, and concurrent factors were associated with experiencing a psychiatric disorder, diagnosed using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Axis I Disorders, at 1 year post-injury. Participants were 122 adults with TBI and 88 proxy informants. Psychiatric disorders were common both pre-injury (54.1%) and at 12 months post-injury (45.9%). Results of regression analyses indicated individuals without a pre-injury psychiatric disorder or psychiatric symptomatology in the acute post-injury period were less likely to have a psychiatric disorder at 12 months post-injury. These findings confirm the importance of pre-injury history for the prediction of post-injury psychiatric disorders. Limb injury also emerged as a useful early indicator of later psychiatric disorder. Post-injury psychiatric disorders were associated with concurrent unemployment, pain, poor quality of life, and use of unproductive coping skills. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed.

  3. Effectiveness of an i-PTH Measurement in Predicting Post Thyroidectomy Hypocalcemia: Prospective Controlled Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jin Pyeong; Park, Jung Je; Son, Hee Young; Kim, Rock Bum; Kim, Ho Youp

    2013-01-01

    Purpose Hypocalcemia is the most common complication after total thyroidectomy. The purpose of this study was to determine whether measurement of intact parathyroid hormone (i-PTH) level in thyroidectomy patients could predict hypocalcemia. Materials and Methods We performed a prospective study of patients undergoing total thyroidectomy. Serum concentration of i-PTH, total calcium (Ca), ionized calcium (Ca2+), phosphate (P), magnesium (Mg), and albumin were measured preoperatively and at 0 hour, 6 hours, 12 hours, 24 hours, 48 hours, and 72 hours postoperatively. Results 108 patients were recruited to the study. A total of 50 patients (46%) experienced hypocalcemia. The serum i-PTH concentration was linearly related to the time of measurement, while concentrations of P, Mg, albumin, Ca, and Ca2+ were not. We compared odds ratios, and found that the concentration of i-PTH at 6 hours post operation was the most closely related to the occurrence of hypocalcemic symptom. On ROC analysis using i-PTH level at 6 hours, an i-PTH level of 10.6 mg/dL was found to maximize both sensitivity and specificity at the same time point. Conclusion We found that i-PTH was a predictor of hypocalcemia, and that the earliest predictor of hypocalcemic symptoms was an i-PTH concentration lower than 10.6 mg/dL obtained 6 hours after total thyroidectomy. PMID:23549808

  4. The interaction between self-regulation and motivation prospectively predicting problem behavior in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhodes, Jessica D; Colder, Craig R; Trucco, Elisa M; Speidel, Carolyn; Hawk, Larry W; Lengua, Liliana J; Das Eiden, Rina; Wieczorek, William

    2013-01-01

    A large literature suggests associations between self-regulation and motivation and adolescent problem behavior; however, this research has mostly pitted these constructs against one another or tested them in isolation. Following recent neural-systems based theories (e.g., Ernst & Fudge, 2009 ), the present study investigated the interactions between self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation prospectively predicting delinquency and depressive symptoms in early adolescence. The community sample included 387 adolescents aged 11 to 13 years old (55% female; 17% minority). Laboratory tasks were used to assess self-regulation and approach and avoidance motivation, and adolescent self-reports were used to measure depressive symptoms and delinquency. Analyses suggested that low levels of approach motivation were associated with high levels of depressive symptoms, but only at high levels of self-regulation (p = .01). High levels of approach were associated with high levels of rule breaking, but only at low levels of self-regulation (p theories that posit integration of motivational and self-regulatory individual differences via moderational models to understand adolescent problem behavior.

  5. Predicting Circulatory Diseases from Psychosocial Safety Climate: A Prospective Cohort Study from Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harry Becher

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Circulatory diseases (CDs (including myocardial infarction, angina, stroke or hypertension are among the leading causes of death in the world. In this paper, we explore for the first time the impact of a specific aspect of organizational climate, Psychosocial Safety Climate (PSC, on CDs. We used two waves of interview data from Australia, with an average lag of 5 years (excluding baseline CDs, final n = 1223. Logistic regression was conducted to estimate the prospective associations between PSC at baseline on incident CDs at follow-up. It was found that participants in low PSC environments were 59% more likely to develop new CD than those in high PSC environments. Logistic regression showed that high PSC at baseline predicts lower CD risk at follow-up (OR = 0.98, 95% CI 0.96–1.00 and this risk remained unchanged even after additional adjustment for known job design risk factors (effort reward imbalance and job strain. These results suggest that PSC is an independent risk factor for CDs in Australia. Beyond job design this study implicates organizational climate and prevailing management values regarding worker psychological health as the genesis of CDs.

  6. Irregular menses predicts ovarian cancer: Prospective evidence from the Child Health and Development Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirillo, Piera M; Wang, Erica T; Cedars, Marcelle I; Chen, Lee-May; Cohn, Barbara A

    2016-09-01

    We tested the hypothesis that irregular menstruation predicts lower risk for ovarian cancer, possibly due to less frequent ovulation. We conducted a 50-year prospective study of 15,528 mothers in the Child Health and Development Studies cohort recruited from the Kaiser Foundation Health Plan from 1959 to 1966. Irregular menstruation was classified via medical record and self-report at age 26. We identified 116 cases and 84 deaths due to ovarian cancer through 2011 via linkage to the California Cancer Registry and Vital Statistics. Contrary to expectation, women with irregular menstrual cycles had a higher risk of ovarian cancer incidence and mortality over the 50-year follow-up. Associations increased with age (p irregular menstruation and ovarian cancer-we unexpectedly found higher risk for women with irregular cycles. These women are easy to identify and many may have polycystic ovarian syndrome. Classifying high-risk phenotypes such as irregular menstruation creates opportunities to find novel early biomarkers, refine clinical screening protocols and potentially develop new risk reduction strategies. These efforts can lead to earlier detection and better survival for ovarian cancer. © 2016 UICC.

  7. Soluble Suppression of Tumorigenicity-2 Predicts Hospital Mortality in Burn Patients: An Observational Prospective Cohort Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruiz-Castilla, Mireia; Bosacoma, Pau; Dos Santos, Bruce; Baena, Jacinto; Guilabert, Patricia; Marin-Corral, Judith; Masclans, Joan R; Roca, Oriol; Barret, Juan P

    2018-04-10

    The IL33/ST2 pathway has been implicated in the pathogenesis of different inflammatory diseases. Our aim was to analyze whether plasma levels of biomarkers involved in the IL33/ST2 axis might help to predict mortality in burn patients. Single-center prospective observational cohort pilot study performed at the Burns Unit of the Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Department of the Vall d'Hebron University Hospital (Barcelona). All patients aged ≥18 years old with second or third-degree burns requiring admission to the Burns Unit were considered for inclusion. Blood samples were taken to measure levels of interleukins (IL)6, IL8, IL33, and soluble suppression of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) within 24 h of admission to the Burns Unit and at day 3. Results are expressed as medians and interquartile ranges or as frequencies and percentages. Sixty-nine patients (58 [84.1%] male, mean age 52 [35-63] years, total body surface area burned 21% [13%-30%], Abbreviated Burn Severity Index 6 [4-8]) were included. Thirteen (18.8%) finally died in the Burns Unit. Plasma levels of sST2 measured at day 3 after admission demonstrated the best prediction accuracy for survival (area under the ROC curve 0.85 [0.71-0.99]; P < 0.001). The best cutoff point for the AUROC index was estimated to be 2,561. In the Cox proportional hazards model, after adjusting for potential confounding, a plasma sST2 level ≥2,561 measured at day 3 was significantly associated with mortality (HR 6.94 [1.73-27.74]; P = 0.006). Plasma sST2 at day 3 predicts hospital mortality in burn patients.

  8. Prediction of significant conduction disease through noninvasive assessment of cardiac calcification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainigi, Sumeet K; Chebrolu, Lakshmi Hima Bindu; Romero-Corral, Abel; Mehta, Vinay; Machado, Rodolfo Rozindo; Konecny, Tomas; Pressman, Gregg S

    2012-10-01

    Cardiac calcification is associated with coronary artery disease, arrhythmias, conduction disease, and adverse cardiac events. Recently, we have described an echocardiographic-based global cardiac calcification scoring system. The objective of this study was to evaluate the severity of cardiac calcification in patients with permanent pacemakers as based on this scoring system. Patients with a pacemaker implanted within the 2-year study period with a previous echocardiogram were identified and underwent blinded global cardiac calcium scoring. These patients were compared to matched control patients without a pacemaker who also underwent calcium scoring. The study group consisted of 49 patients with pacemaker implantation who were compared to 100 matched control patients. The mean calcium score in the pacemaker group was 3.3 ± 2.9 versus 1.8 ± 2.0 (P = 0.006) in the control group. Univariate and multivariate analysis revealed glomerular filtration rate and calcium scoring to be significant predictors of the presence of a pacemaker. Echocardiographic-based calcium scoring correlates with the presence of severe conduction disease requiring a pacemaker. © 2012, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. New pulmonary vein Doppler echocardiographic index predicts significant interatrial shunting in secundum atrial septal defect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Yat-Yin; Fang, Fang; Yip, Gabriel Wai-Kwok; Li, Zhi-An; Yang, Ya; Yu, Cheuk-Man

    2012-09-20

    The relation between pulmonary venous flow (PVF) pattern and degree of left-to-right interatrial shunting (IAS) in patients with secundum atrial septal defect (ASD) is unknown. Fifty consecutive ASD patients (14 males, 36 ± 17 years) received transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) before and 1 day after transcatheter closure and their results were compared to 40 controls. The ratio of pulmonary-to-systemic flows (Qp/Qs) was assessed by TTE and invasive oximetry. Pre-closure PV systolic (PVs), diastolic (PVd) velocities and velocity-time integral (PV-VTI) increased, time from onset of ECG Q-wave to the peak PV diastolic wave (Q-PVd) shortened and atrial reversal (PVar) velocity significantly decreased as compared to normals. These findings normalized after closure. Patients with large IAS (defined as invasive Qp/Qs ≥ 2) had higher PVs, PVd and PV-VTI, shorter Q-PVd but lower PVar (all pIAS. Invasive Qp/Qs ratios correlated with PVs, PVd, PV-VTI, Q-PVd and TTE-derived Qp/Qs ratios, ASD sizes and RV end-diastolic dimensions (all pIAS after multivariate analysis. The corresponding sensitivity, specificity and AUC were 89%, 82% and 0.90 respectively for a PV-VTI of 30 cm (pIAS have distinguishable PVF features. Doppler evaluation of PV-VTI is a novel additional tool for assessing the magnitude of shunting in these patients non-invasively. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. PREDICTIVE SIGNIFICANCE OF ANTI-HLA AUTOANTIBODIES IN HEART TRANSPLANT RECIPIENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. P. Shevchenko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim. The aim of this study was to define the role of preformed anti-HLA antibodies (anti-HLA in antibody-mediated rejection (AMR and cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV after heart transplantation. Materials and Methods. 140 heart transplant recipients were followed after heart transplantation performed for 106 dilated and 34 – ischemic cardiomyopathy. Anti-HLA was determined before transplantation by ELISA. Results. Recipients were divided into 2 groups: anti-HLA positive (n = 45, 32,1% and anti-HLA negative (n = 95, 67,9%. The incidence of AMR in anti-HLA positive group was 12 (26,67% and 11 (11,58% in anti-HLA negative group. Risk of AMR was significantly higher in anti-HLA positive recipients (RR 2,3: 95% CI 1,02–4,81, р = 0,03. During first three years after transplantation CAV was diagnosed in 9 (20% of anti-HLA positive recipients and in 7 (6,8% of patients without anti-HLA. (RR 2,7: 95% CI 1,08–6,82, р = 0,03. Survival in freedom from CAV in anti-HLA negative recipients was much higher than in anti-HLA positive recipients (0,89 ± 0,07, 0,72 ± 0,06, resp. (p = 0,02.Conclusions. The presence of preformed anti-HLA antibodies in candidates for heart transplantation increase the risk of AMR and CAV post transplantation in 2,3 and 2,7 times, respectively. 

  11. Faculty Decisions on Serials Subscriptions Differ Significantly from Decisions Predicted by a Bibliometric Tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sue F. Phelps

    2016-03-01

    of the faculty choices. The p-value for this relationship was less than 0.0001, also indicating that the result was not by chance. A quadratic model plotted alongside the previous linear model follows a similar pattern. The p-value of the comparison is 0.0002, which indicates the quadratic model’s fit cannot be explained by random chance. Main Results – The authors point out three outstanding findings. First, the match rate between faculty valuations and bibliometric scores for serials is 65%. This exceeds the 50% rate that would indicate random association, but also indicates a statistically significant difference between faculty and bibliometric valuations. Secondly, the match rate with the bibliometric scores for titles that faculty chose to keep (73% was higher than those they chose to cancel (54%. Thirdly, the match rate increased with higher bibliometric scores. Conclusions – Though the authors identify only a modest degree of similarity between faculty and bibliometric valuations of serials, it is noted that there is more agreement in the higher valued serials than the lower valued serials. With that in mind, librarians might focus faculty review on the lower scoring titles in the future, taking into consideration that unique faculty interests may drive selection at that level and would need to be balanced with the mission of the library.

  12. Comparisons of prediction models of quality of life after laparoscopic cholecystectomy: a longitudinal prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hon-Yi Shi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Few studies of laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC outcome have used longitudinal data for more than two years. Moreover, no studies have considered group differences in factors other than outcome such as age and nonsurgical treatment. Additionally, almost all published articles agree that the essential issue of the internal validity (reproducibility of the artificial neural network (ANN, support vector machine (SVM, Gaussian process regression (GPR and multiple linear regression (MLR models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposed to validate the use of these models for predicting quality of life (QOL after LC and to compare the predictive capability of ANNs with that of SVM, GPR and MLR. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A total of 400 LC patients completed the SF-36 and the Gastrointestinal Quality of Life Index at baseline and at 2 years postoperatively. The criteria for evaluating the accuracy of the system models were mean square error (MSE and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative significance of input parameters in the system model and to rank the variables in order of importance. Compared to SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model generally had smaller MSE and MAPE values in the training data set and test data set. Most ANN models had MAPE values ranging from 4.20% to 8.60%, and most had high prediction accuracy. The global sensitivity analysis also showed that preoperative functional status was the best parameter for predicting QOL after LC. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Compared with SVM, GPR and MLR models, the ANN model in this study was more accurate in predicting patient-reported QOL and had higher overall performance indices. Further studies of this model may consider the effect of a more detailed database that includes complications and clinical examination findings as well as more detailed outcome data.

  13. Prospective validation of immunological infiltrate for prediction of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in HER2-negative breast cancer--a substudy of the neoadjuvant GeparQuinto trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Issa-Nummer, Yasmin; Darb-Esfahani, Silvia; Loibl, Sibylle; Kunz, Georg; Nekljudova, Valentina; Schrader, Iris; Sinn, Bruno Valentin; Ulmer, Hans-Ullrich; Kronenwett, Ralf; Just, Marianne; Kühn, Thorsten; Diebold, Kurt; Untch, Michael; Holms, Frank; Blohmer, Jens-Uwe; Habeck, Jörg-Olaf; Dietel, Manfred; Overkamp, Friedrich; Krabisch, Petra; von Minckwitz, Gunter; Denkert, Carsten

    2013-01-01

    We have recently described an increased lymphocytic infiltration rate in breast carcinoma tissue is a significant response predictor for anthracycline/taxane-based neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). The aim of this study was to prospectively validate the tumor-associated lymphocyte infiltrate as predictive marker for response to anthracycline/taxane-based NACT. The immunological infiltrate was prospectively evaluated in a total of 313 core biopsies from HER2 negative patients of the multicenter PREDICT study, a substudy of the neoadjuvant GeparQuinto study. Intratumoral lymphocytes (iTuLy), stromal lymphocytes (strLy) as well as lymphocyte-predominant breast cancer (LPBC) were evaluated by histopathological assessment. Pathological complete response (pCR) rates were analyzed and compared between the defined subgroups using the exact test of Fisher. Patients with lymphocyte-predominant breast cancer (LPBC) had a significantly increased pCR rate of 36.6%, compared to non-LPBC patients (14.3%, pimmunological infiltrate in breast tumor tissue is predictive for response to anthracycline/taxane-based NACT. Patients with LPBC and increased stromal lymphocyte infiltration have significantly increased pCR rates. The lymphocytic infiltrate is a promising additional parameter for histopathological evaluation of breast cancer core biopsies.

  14. Parametric Optimization and Prediction Tool for Excavation and Prospecting Tasks, Phase II

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Honeybee Robotics therefore proposed to develop a software tool for facilitating prospecting and excavation system trades in support of selecting an optimal...

  15. Preoperative prediction of inpatient recovery of function after total hip arthroplasty using performance-based tests: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oosting, Ellen; Hoogeboom, Thomas J; Appelman-de Vries, Suzan A; Swets, Adam; Dronkers, Jaap J; van Meeteren, Nico L U

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the value of conventional factors, the Risk Assessment and Predictor Tool (RAPT) and performance-based functional tests as predictors of delayed recovery after total hip arthroplasty (THA). A prospective cohort study in a regional hospital in the Netherlands with 315 patients was attending for THA in 2012. The dependent variable recovery of function was assessed with the Modified Iowa Levels of Assistance scale. Delayed recovery was defined as taking more than 3 days to walk independently. Independent variables were age, sex, BMI, Charnley score, RAPT score and scores for four performance-based tests [2-minute walk test, timed up and go test (TUG), 10-meter walking test (10 mW) and hand grip strength]. Regression analysis with all variables identified older age (>70 years), Charnley score C, slow walking speed (10 mW >10.0 s) and poor functional mobility (TUG >10.5 s) as the best predictors of delayed recovery of function. This model (AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.79-0.91) performed better than a model with conventional factors and RAPT scores, and significantly better (p = 0.04) than a model with only conventional factors (AUC 0.81, 95% CI 0.74-0.87). The combination of performance-based tests and conventional factors predicted inpatient functional recovery after THA. Two simple functional performance-based tests have a significant added value to a more conventional screening with age and comorbidities to predict recovery of functioning immediately after total hip surgery. Patients over 70 years old, with comorbidities, with a TUG score >10.5 s and a walking speed >1.0 m/s are at risk for delayed recovery of functioning. Those high risk patients need an accurate discharge plan and could benefit from targeted pre- and postoperative therapeutic exercise programs.

  16. A critical review of predictive models for the onset of significant void in forced-convection subcooled boiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorra, H.; Lee, S.C.; Bankoff, S.G.

    1993-06-01

    This predictive models for the onset of significant void (OSV) in forced-convection subcooled boiling are reviewed and compared with extensive data. Three analytical models and seven empirical correlations are considered in this review. These models and correlations are put onto a common basis and are compared, again on a common basis, with a variety of data. The evaluation of their range of validity and applicability under various operating conditions are discussed. The results show that the correlations of Saha-Zuber seems to be the best model to predict OSV in vertical subcooled boiling flow

  17. Detection of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in women with atypical squamous or glandular cells of undetermined significance cytology: a prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wensveen, Celesta; Kagie, Marjolein; Veldhuizen, Roel; de Groot, Christianne; Denny, Lynette; Zwinderman, Koos; Trimbos, Baptist

    2003-01-01

    (1) To assess the prevalence of histologically confirmed cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in patients with cervical smears diagnosed as atypical squamous or glandular cells of undetermined significance. (2) To evaluate the role of colposcopy and the presence of human papillomavirus in detecting

  18. Novel use of the Wii Balance Board to prospectively predict falls in community-dwelling older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwok, Boon-Chong; Clark, Ross A; Pua, Yong-Hao

    2015-06-01

    The Wii Balance Board has received increasing attention as a balance measurement tool; however its ability to prospectively predict falls is unknown. This exploratory study investigated the use of the Wii Balance Board and other clinical-based measures for prospectively predicting falls among community-dwelling older adults. Seventy-three community-dwelling men and women, aged 60-85years were followed-up over a year for falls. Standing balance was indexed by sway velocities measured using the Wii Balance Board interfaced with a laptop. Clinical-based measures included Short Physical Performance Battery, gait speed and Timed-Up-and-Go test. Multivariable regression analyses were used to assess the ability of the Wii Balance Board measure to complement the TUG test in fall screening. Individually, the study found Wii Balance Board anteroposterior (odds ratio 1.98, 95% CI 1.16 to 3.40, P=0.01) and mediolateral (odds ratio 2.80, 95% CI 1.10 to 7.13, p=0.03) sway velocity measures predictive of prospective falls. However, when each velocity measure was adjusted with body mass index and Timed-Up-and-Go, only anteroposterior sway velocity was predictive of prospective falls (odds ratio 2.21, 95% CI 1.18 to 4.14). A faster anteroposterior velocity was associated with increased odds of falling. Area-under-the-curves for Wii Balance Board sway velocities were 0.67 and 0.71 for anteroposterior and mediolateral respectively. The Wii Balance Board-derived anteroposterior sway velocity measure could complement existing clinical-based measures in predicting future falls among community-dwelling older adults. Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry number: ACTRN12610001099011. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Early detection and prediction of cardiotoxicity after radiation therapy for breast cancer: the BACCARAT prospective cohort study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacob, Sophie; Pathak, Atul; Franck, Denis; Latorzeff, Igor; Jimenez, Gaelle; Fondard, Olivier; Lapeyre, Matthieu; Colombier, Daniel; Bruguiere, Eric; Lairez, Olivier; Fontenel, Benoit; Milliat, Fabien; Tamarat, Radia; Broggio, David; Derreumaux, Sylvie; Ducassou, Marianne; Ferrières, Jean; Laurier, Dominique; Benderitter, Marc; Bernier, Marie-Odile

    2016-01-01

    Radiotherapy (RT) for breast cancer presents a benefit in terms of reducing local recurrence and deaths resulting from breast cancer but it can lead to secondary effects due to the presence of neighboring cardiac normal tissues within the irradiation field. Breast RT has been shown to be associated with long-term increased risk of heart failure, coronary artery disease, myocardial infarction and finally cardiovascular death more than 10 years after RT. However, there is still a lack of knowledge for early cardiotoxicity induced by breast RT that can appear long before the onset of clinically significant cardiac events. Based on a 2-year follow-up prospective cohort of patients treated with breast RT, the BACCARAT (BreAst Cancer and CArdiotoxicity Induced by RAdioTherapy) study aims to enhance knowledge on detection and prediction of early subclinical cardiac dysfunction and lesions induced by breast RT and on biological mechanisms potentially involved, based on functional and anatomical cardiac imaging combined with simultaneous assessment of multiple circulating biomarkers and accurate heart dosimetry. BACCARAT study consists in a monocentric prospective cohort study that will finally include 120 women treated with adjuvant 3D CRT for breast cancer, and followed for 2 years after RT. Women aged 50 to 70 years, treated for breast cancer and for whom adjuvant 3D CRT is indicated, without chemotherapy are eligible for the study. Baseline (before RT) and follow-up data include measurements of functional myocardial dysfunction including strain and strain rate based on 2D-speckle tracking echocardiography, anatomical coronary lesions including description of plaques in segments of coronary arteries based on Coronary computed tomography angiography, and a wide panel of circulating biomarkers. The absorbed dose is evaluated for the whole heart and its substructures, in particular the coronary arteries. Analysis on occurrence and evolution of subclinical cardiac lesions

  20. Prospective evaluation of biomarkers for prediction of quality of life in community-acquired pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickler, Manuela; Schaffner, Daniela; Christ-Crain, Mirjam; Ottiger, Manuel; Thomann, Robert; Hoess, Claus; Henzen, Christoph; Mueller, Beat; Schuetz, Philipp

    2016-11-01

    Most clinical research investigated prognostic biomarkers for their ability to predict cardiovascular events or mortality. It is unknown whether biomarkers allow prediction of quality of life (QoL) after survival of the acute event. Herein, we investigated the prognostic potential of well-established inflammatory/cardiovascular blood biomarkers including white blood cells (WBC), C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), pro-adrenomedullin (proADM) and pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (proANP) in regard to a decline in QoL in a well-defined cohort of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Within this secondary analysis including 753 patients with a final inpatient diagnosis of CAP from a multicenter trial, we investigated associations between admission biomarker levels and decline in QoL assessed by the EQ-5D health questionnaire from admission to day 30 and after 6 years. Admission proADM and proANP levels significantly predicted decline of the weighted EQ-5D index after 30 days (n=753) with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of 2.0 ([95% CI 1.1-3.8]; p=0.027) and 3.7 ([95% CI 2.2-6.0]; pscale (VAS). Initial WBC, PCT and CRP values did not well predict QoL at any time point. ProADM and proANP accurately predict short- and long-term decline in QoL across most dimensions in CAP patients. It will be interesting to reveal underlying physiopathology in future studies.

  1. A prospective examination of whether childhood sexual abuse predicts subsequent sexual offending.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widom, Cathy Spatz; Massey, Christina

    2015-01-01

    Childhood sexual abuse has been assumed to increase the risk for sexual offending. However, despite methodological limitations of prior research, public policies and clinical practice have been based on this assumption. To empirically examine the commonly held belief that sexually abused children grow up to become sexual offenders and specialize in sex crimes. This prospective cohort study and archival records check included cases and control individuals originally from a metropolitan county in the Midwest. Children with substantiated cases of physical and sexual abuse and neglect (aged 0-11 years) were matched with children without such histories on the basis of age, sex, race/ethnicity, and approximate family social class (908 cases and 667 control individuals). Both groups were followed up into adulthood (mean age, 51 years). The court cases were from 1967 to 1971; the follow-up extended to 2013. Criminal history information was collected from federal and state law enforcement agency records at 3 points in time and from state sex offender registries. Overall, individuals with histories of childhood abuse and neglect were at increased risk for being arrested for a sex crime compared with control individuals (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.17; 95% CI, 1.38-3.40), controlling for age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Specifically, individuals with histories of physical abuse (AOR, 2.06; 95% CI, 1.02-4.16) and neglect (AOR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.39-3.51) were at significantly increased risk for arrest for sex offenses, whereas for sexual abuse, the AOR (2.13; 95% CI, 0.83-5.47) did not reach significance. Physically abused and neglected males (not females) were at increased risk and physically abused males also had a higher mean number of sex crime arrests compared with control individuals. The results did not provide support for sex crime specialization. The widespread belief that sexually abused children are uniquely at risk to become sex offenders was not supported by

  2. Telephone Encounters Predict Future High Financial Expenditures in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients: A 3-Year Prospective Observational Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Click, Benjamin; Anderson, Alyce M; Ramos Rivers, Claudia; Koutroubakis, Ioannis E; Hashash, Jana G; Dunn, Michael A; Schwartz, Marc; Swoger, Jason; Barrie, Arthur; Szigethy, Eva; Regueiro, Miguel; Schoen, Robert E; Binion, David G

    2018-04-01

    Telephone activity is essential in management of complex chronic diseases including inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). Telephone encounters logged in the electronic medical record have recently been proposed as a surrogate marker of disease activity and impending health care utilization; however, the association between telephone calls and financial expenditures has not been evaluated. We performed a 3-year prospective observational study of telephone encounters logged at a tertiary referral IBD center. We analyzed patient demographics, disease characteristics, comorbidities, clinical activity, and health care financial charges by telephone encounter frequency. Eight hundred one patients met inclusion criteria (52.3% female; mean age, 44.1 y), accounted for 12,669 telephone encounters, and accrued $70,513,449 in charges over 3 years. High telephone encounter frequency was associated with female gender (P=0.003), anxiety/depression (Pfinancial charges the following year after controlling for demographic, utilization, and medication covariates. Increased telephone encounters are associated with significantly higher health care utilization and financial expenditures. Increased call frequency is predictive of future health care spending. Telephone encounters are a useful tool to identify patients at risk of clinical deterioration and large financial expense.

  3. Specificity in autobiographical memory narratives correlates with performance on the Autobiographical Memory Test and prospectively predicts depressive symptoms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumner, Jennifer A.; Mineka, Susan; McAdams, Dan P.

    2012-01-01

    Reduced autobiographical memory specificity (AMS) is an important cognitive marker in depression that is typically measured with the Autobiographical Memory Test (AMT; Williams & Broadbent, 1986). The AMT is widely used, but the overreliance on a single methodology for assessing AMS is a limitation in the field. The current study investigated memory narratives as an alternative measure of AMS in an undergraduate student sample selected for being high or low on a measure of depressive symptoms (N = 55). We employed a multi-method design to compare narrative- and AMT-based measures of AMS. Participants generated personally significant self-defining memory narratives, and also completed two versions of the AMT (with and without instructions to retrieve specific memories). Greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives correlated with greater AMS in performance on both versions of the AMT in the full sample, and the patterns of relationships between the different AMS measures were generally similar in low and high dysphoric participants. Furthermore, AMS in self-defining memory narratives was prospectively associated with depressive symptom levels. Specifically, greater AMS in self-defining memory narratives predicted fewer depressive symptoms at a 10-week follow-up over and above baseline symptom levels. Implications for future research and clinical applications are discussed. PMID:23240988

  4. Stress, cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones: Prospective prediction of 6-month changes in food cravings and weight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Ariana M; Jastreboff, Ania M; White, Marney A; Grilo, Carlos M; Sinha, Rajita

    2017-04-01

    To examine whether baseline chronic stress, morning cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones (leptin, ghrelin, and insulin) predict future weight gain and food cravings in a naturalistic, longitudinal, 6-month follow-up study. A prospective community cohort of 339 adults (age 29.1 ± 9.0 years; BMI = 26.7 ± 5.4 kg/m 2 ; 56.9% female; 70.2% white) completed assessments at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Fasting blood draws were used to assess cortisol and other appetite-related hormone levels at baseline. At baseline and follow-up, body weight was measured, and the Cumulative Adversity Interview and Food Craving Inventory were administered. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Over the 6-month period, 49.9% of the sample gained weight. Food cravings and chronic stress decreased over 6 months (Ps < 0.05). However, after adjusting for covariates, individuals with higher baseline total ghrelin had significantly higher food cravings at 6 months (P = 0.04). Furthermore, higher cortisol, insulin, and chronic stress were each predictive of greater future weight gain (Ps < 0.05). These results suggest that ghrelin plays a role in increased food cravings and reward-driven eating behaviors. Studies are needed that examine the utility of stress reduction methods for normalizing disrupted cortisol responses and preventing future weight gain. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  5. Predictive values of psychiatric symptoms for internet addiction in adolescents: a 2-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ko, Chih-Hung; Yen, Ju-Yu; Chen, Cheng-Sheng; Yeh, Yi-Chun; Yen, Cheng-Fang

    2009-10-01

    To evaluate the predictive values of psychiatric symptoms for the occurrence of Internet addiction and to determine the sex differences in the predictive value of psychiatric symptoms for the occurrence of Internet addiction in adolescents. Internet addiction, depression, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, social phobia, and hostility were assessed by self-reported questionnaires. Participants were then invited to be assessed for Internet addiction 6, 12, and 24 months later (the second, third, and fourth assessments, respectively). Ten junior high schools in southern Taiwan. A total of 2293 (1179 boys and 1114 girls) adolescents participated in the initial investigation. The course of time. Internet addiction as assessed using the Chen Internet Addiction Scale. Depression, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, social phobia, and hostility were found to predict the occurrence of Internet addiction in the 2-year follow-up, and hostility and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder were the most significant predictors of Internet addiction in male and female adolescents, respectively. These results suggest that attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder, hostility, depression, and social phobia should be detected early on and intervention carried out to prevent Internet addiction in adolescents. Also, sex differences in psychiatric comorbidity should be taken into consideration when developing prevention and intervention strategies for Internet addiction.

  6. Metallogenetic prospecting prediction of volcanic rock type of uranium deposit in Pucheng Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao Bin; Wang Yong

    1998-01-01

    Based on the metallogenetic geological conditions of Pucheng area, metallogenetic geological model existing and the information quality method, the logic vector length method and the logic vector length weighted method, some favorable geological variance are selected. The assessment model is set up and some favorable metallogenetic area are delineated according to the different contribution degrees of the geological variances to mineralization. By geological assessment in the favorable metallogenetic areas, it is considered that the favorable metallogenetic geological conditions exist in this areas, and there are prospecting prospective surroundings areas and glorious prospecting future were confirmed in the district

  7. Predictive models of pain following root canal treatment: a prospective clinical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arias, A; de la Macorra, J C; Hidalgo, J J; Azabal, M

    2013-08-01

    To determine the probability of the incidence, intensity, duration and triggering of post-endodontic pain, considering factors related to the patient (age, gender, medical evaluation) and to the affected tooth (group, location, number of canals, pulp vitality, preoperative pain, periapical radiolucencies, previous emergency access, presence of occlusal contacts with antagonist). A total of 500 one-visit root canal treatments (RCTs) were performed on patients referred to an endodontist. Shaping of root canals was performed manually with Gates-Glidden drills and K-Flexofiles, and apical patency was maintained with a size 10 file. A 5% NaOCl solution was used for irrigation, and canals were filled with lateral compaction and AH-Plus sealer. Independent factors were recorded during the treatment, and characteristics of post-endodontic pain (incidence, intensity, type and duration) were later surveyed through questionnaires. Of the 500 questionnaires, 374 were properly returned and split in two groups for two different statistical purposes: 316 cases were used to adjust the logistic regression models to predict each characteristic of post-endodontic pain using predictive factors, and the remaining 58 cases were used to test the validity of each model. The predictive models showed that the incidence of post-endodontic pain was significantly lower when the treated tooth was not a molar (P = 0.003), demonstrated periapical radiolucencies (P = 0.003), had no history of previous pain (P = 0.006) or emergency endodontic treatment (P = 0.045) and had no occlusal contact (P endodontic pain were generated and validated taking account of the interrelation of multiple concomitant clinical factors. A predictive model for triggering post-endodontic pain could not be established. © 2013 International Endodontic Journal. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Attitudes predict the use of physical punishment: a prospective study of the emergence of disciplinary practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vittrup, Brigitte; Holden, George W; Buck, Jeanell

    2006-06-01

    We sought to track the emergence of discipline techniques by mothers of young children and assess the predictive validity of spanking attitudes with subsequent reports of spanking. One hundred thirty-two mothers were surveyed every 6 months (beginning when their child was 12 months old until they were 4 years old) regarding how they disciplined their children. The discipline behaviors measured included physical punishment, noncoercive methods, and the use of time-outs and withdrawal of privileges. Attitudes toward spanking also were assessed several times. When their infants were 12 months old, mothers reported using 10 of the 12 discipline techniques assessed, and by the time the children were 24 months old, most mothers reported widespread use of the techniques. The frequency of use increased with age. Although the use of some discipline methods changed as the children got older, the mothers showed significant stability in their overall discipline strategy. Attitudes toward spanking (assessed when their children were 6 months old) were significantly correlated with subsequent spanking behavior, and the mothers' attitudes showed stability over time as well. By the time infants are 12 months old, discipline is a frequent occurrence in many families. A variety of techniques are used, and attitudes toward spanking predict subsequent spanking behavior. This information is useful for pediatricians, because it provides parents with anticipatory guidance about disciplining young children.

  9. Surface tensions of multi-component mixed inorganic/organic aqueous systems of atmospheric significance: measurements, model predictions and importance for cloud activation predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. O. Topping

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict the physical properties of aerosol particles, it is necessary to adequately capture the behaviour of the ubiquitous complex organic components. One of the key properties which may affect this behaviour is the contribution of the organic components to the surface tension of aqueous particles in the moist atmosphere. Whilst the qualitative effect of organic compounds on solution surface tensions has been widely reported, our quantitative understanding on mixed organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems is limited. Furthermore, it is unclear whether models that exist in the literature can reproduce the surface tension variability for binary and higher order multi-component organic and mixed inorganic/organic systems of atmospheric significance. The current study aims to resolve both issues to some extent. Surface tensions of single and multiple solute aqueous solutions were measured and compared with predictions from a number of model treatments. On comparison with binary organic systems, two predictive models found in the literature provided a range of values resulting from sensitivity to calculations of pure component surface tensions. Results indicate that a fitted model can capture the variability of the measured data very well, producing the lowest average percentage deviation for all compounds studied. The performance of the other models varies with compound and choice of model parameters. The behaviour of ternary mixed inorganic/organic systems was unreliably captured by using a predictive scheme and this was dependent on the composition of the solutes present. For more atmospherically representative higher order systems, entirely predictive schemes performed poorly. It was found that use of the binary data in a relatively simple mixing rule, or modification of an existing thermodynamic model with parameters derived from binary data, was able to accurately capture the surface tension variation with concentration. Thus

  10. Clinical significance and predictive factors of early massive recurrence after radiofrequency ablation in patients with a single small hepatocellular carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ju-Yeon Cho

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims Radiofrequency ablation (RFA is one of the most frequently applied curative treatments in patients with a single small hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC. However, the clinical significance of and risk factors for early massive recurrence after RFA—a dreadful event limiting further curative treatment—have not been fully evaluated. Methods In total, 438 patients with a single HCC of size ≤3 cm who underwent percutaneous RFA as an initial treatment between 2006 and 2009 were included. Baseline patient characteristics, overall survival, predictive factors, and recurrence after RFA were evaluated. In addition, the incidence, impact on survival, and predictive factors of early massive recurrence, and initial recurrence beyond the Milan criteria within 2 years were also investigated. Results During the median follow-up of 68.4 months, recurrent HCC was confirmed in 302 (68.9% patients, with early massive recurrence in 27 patients (6.2%. The 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival rates were 95.4%, 84.7%, and 81.8%, respectively, in patients with no recurrence, 99.6%, 86.4%, and 70.1% in patients with recurrence within the Milan criteria or late recurrence, and 92.6%, 46.5%, and 0.05% in patients with early massive recurrence. Multivariable analysis identified older age, Child-Pugh score B or C, and early massive recurrence as predictive of poor overall survival. A tumor size of ≥2 cm and tumor location adjacent to the colon were independent risk factors predictive of early massive recurrence. Conclusions Early massive recurrence is independently predictive of poor overall survival after RFA in patients with a single small HCC. Tumors sized ≥2 cm and located adjacent to the colon appear to be independent risk factors for early massive recurrence.

  11. Physiologically-based, predictive analytics using the heart-rate-to-Systolic-Ratio significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction compared to SIRS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danner, Omar K; Hendren, Sandra; Santiago, Ethel; Nye, Brittany; Abraham, Prasad

    2017-04-01

    Enhancing the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment of severe sepsis by using physiologically-based, predictive analytical strategies has not been fully explored. We hypothesize assessment of heart-rate-to-systolic-ratio significantly increases the timeliness and accuracy of sepsis prediction after emergency department (ED) presentation. We evaluated the records of 53,313 ED patients from a large, urban teaching hospital between January and June 2015. The HR-to-systolic ratio was compared to SIRS criteria for sepsis prediction. There were 884 patients with discharge diagnoses of sepsis, severe sepsis, and/or septic shock. Variations in three presenting variables, heart rate, systolic BP and temperature were determined to be primary early predictors of sepsis with a 74% (654/884) accuracy compared to 34% (304/884) using SIRS criteria (p < 0.0001)in confirmed septic patients. Physiologically-based predictive analytics improved the accuracy and expediency of sepsis identification via detection of variations in HR-to-systolic ratio. This approach may lead to earlier sepsis workup and life-saving interventions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. A prospective evaluation of patient-reported quality-of-life after (chemo)radiation for oropharyngeal cancer: Which patients are at risk of significant quality-of-life deterioration?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Mamgani, Abrahim; Rooij, Peter van; Tans, Lisa; Verduijn, Gerda M.; Sewnaik, Aniel; Jong, Rob J. Baatenburg de

    2013-01-01

    Background and purpose: To prospectively investigate the impact of different patients’ characteristics on quality-of-life (QoL) after (chemo)radiation for oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Materials and methods: Between 2008 and 2011, 207 patients were treated with 46-Gy of (chemo)-IMRT followed by a boost by means of IMRT, brachytherapy (BT), or Cyberknife (CK). QoL-assessment was performed using the EORTC QLQ-C30, and QLQ-H and N35-questionnaires at baseline, end of treatment, 2, 4, 6 weeks and 3, 6, 12, and 18 months after treatment. The correlation between patients’ characteristics (AJCC-stage, tumor subsite, chemotherapy, neck dissection, unilateral neck irradiation, and boost technique), and changes in QoL over time were investigated. Results: At 18 months, improvements were seen in QLQ-C30 emotional functioning, insomnia, and pain and QLQ-H and N35 pain and speech. The scores on QLQ-H and N35 swallowing returned to baseline level while the scores on dry mouth, sticky saliva, opening mouth, and teeth were significantly deteriorated compared to baseline. Boost techniques and unilateral neck irradiation were significantly predictive for dry mouth, swallowing and opening mouth while chemotherapy was correlated with changes on swallowing and opening mouth scales. Conclusions: The most significant deterioration was seen in patient-related xerostomia. Boost technique, unilateral neck irradiation and chemotherapy were significantly predictive for QoL-changes over time

  13. Low plasma leptin level at admission predicts delirium in critically ill patients: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Guicheng; Lei, Xiaobao; Ai, Chenmu; Li, Tao; Chen, Zhongqing

    2017-07-01

    The pathophysiology of delirium remains poorly understood. Low leptin level has been associated with features leading to delirium such as dysregulated immune functions and loss of neuroprotective effects. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship between plasma leptin level at intensive care unit (ICU) entry and subsequent occurrence of delirium in critically ill patients. This single-center prospective cohort study in China allocated 336 critically ill patients admitted to ICU between 05/2015 and 05/2016 into a delirium group (n=102) and non-delirium group (n=234) based on whether delirium occurred during their stay at the ICU. Patients were examined at least twice daily and delirium was diagnosed using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU). Blood samples were obtained after ICU entry. Plasma leptin concentrations were measured by ELISA. Delirium occurred in 30.4% (102/336) of patients. Patients who developed delirium showed significantly lower leptin level at ICU entry than those who did not (6.1±3.2 vs. 9.2±5.9ng/mL; Pdelirium (OR, 0.865; 95%CI, 0.802-0.934; Pdelirium included increasing age (OR, 1.050; 95%CI, 1.020-1.080; P=0.001) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation-II (APACHE-II) score (OR, 1.148; 95%CI, 1.092-1.208; Pdelirium had a prolonged duration of ICU stay and higher mortality. Low plasma leptin level at ICU entry was associated with the occurrence of delirium in critically ill patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Binding Mode and Induced Fit Predictions for Prospective Computational Drug Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grebner, Christoph; Iegre, Jessica; Ulander, Johan; Edman, Karl; Hogner, Anders; Tyrchan, Christian

    2016-04-25

    Computer-aided drug design plays an important role in medicinal chemistry to obtain insights into molecular mechanisms and to prioritize design strategies. Although significant improvement has been made in structure based design, it still remains a key challenge to accurately model and predict induced fit mechanisms. Most of the current available techniques either do not provide sufficient protein conformational sampling or are too computationally demanding to fit an industrial setting. The current study presents a systematic and exhaustive investigation of predicting binding modes for a range of systems using PELE (Protein Energy Landscape Exploration), an efficient and fast protein-ligand sampling algorithm. The systems analyzed (cytochrome P, kinase, protease, and nuclear hormone receptor) exhibit different complexities of ligand induced fit mechanisms and protein dynamics. The results are compared with results from classical molecular dynamics simulations and (induced fit) docking. This study shows that ligand induced side chain rearrangements and smaller to medium backbone movements are captured well in PELE. Large secondary structure rearrangements, however, remain challenging for all employed techniques. Relevant binding modes (ligand heavy atom RMSD PELE method within a few hours of simulation, positioning PELE as a tool applicable for rapid drug design cycles.

  15. Sarcopenia predicts 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Dong-Dong; Chen, Xiao-Xi; Chen, Xi-Yi; Wang, Su-Lin; Shen, Xian; Chen, Xiao-Lei; Yu, Zhen; Zhuang, Cheng-Le

    2016-11-01

    One-year mortality is vital for elderly oncologic patients undergoing surgery. Recent studies have demonstrated that sarcopenia can predict outcomes after major abdominal surgeries, but the association of sarcopenia and 1-year mortality has never been investigated in a prospective study. We conducted a prospective study of elderly patients (≥65 years) who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer from July 2014 to July 2015. Sarcopenia was determined by the measurements of muscle mass, handgrip strength, and gait speed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. A total of 173 patients were included, in which 52 (30.1 %) patients were identified as having sarcopenia. Twenty-four (13.9 %) patients died within 1 year of surgery. Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an increased predictive power for 1-year mortality with the inclusion of sarcopenia, from 0.835 to 0.868. Solely low muscle mass was not predictive of 1-year mortality in the multivariate analysis. Sarcopenia is predictive of 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery. The measurement of muscle function is important for sarcopenia as a preoperative assessment tool.

  16. Predicting early onset of intoxication versus drinking—A population-based prospective study of Norwegian adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frøydis Enstad

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Recent research suggests that early onset of intoxication (EOI may be of greater importance for a wide range of subsequent adverse outcomes than early drinking experiences without intoxication. However, research on antecedents of EOI is scarce. The present study identifies predictors of EOI and whether they differ from those of early onset of drinking (EOD. Methods: Data was drawn from the prospective Tracking Opportunities and Problems (TOPP study of Norwegian families (n=382, which followed up mothers and their children with six data collections from childhood (age 1.5 to adolescence (age 14.5. Self-reports from the adolescents (parenting practices, adolescent's conduct problems and friends' deviant behaviour and their mothers (adolescent temperament, socio-economic factors and household alcohol problems were used to identify predictors of EOI and EOD. Findings: A variety of temperamental, socio-economic, and family factors predicted EOI, whereas EOD was predicted of substantially fewer variables. Particularly, when controlling for relevant covariates, low levels of shyness, own conduct problems and having friends with deviant behaviour prospectively predicted EOI, but not EOD. Conclusions: Future research and prevention efforts should take into consideration that EOI and EOD without getting drunk appear to be predicted by different risk factors in childhood and adolescence. Keywords: Adolescents, Alcohol, Intoxication, Drinking, Onset, Predictors

  17. Role of hyaluronic acid and laminin as serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Feng Li

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of serum HA and LN as serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in CHB patients. METHODS: Serum HA and LN levels of 87 patients with chronic hepatitis B and 19 blood donors were assayed by RIA. Liver fibrosis stages were determined according to the Metavir scoring-system. The diagnostic performances of all indexes were evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves. RESULTS: Serum HA and LN concentrations increased significantly with the stage of hepatic fibrosis, which showed positive correlation with the stages of liver fibrosis (HA: r = 0.875, p < 0.001; LN: r = 0.610, p < 0.001. There were significant differences of serum HA and LN levels between F2-4 group in comparison with those in F0-F1 group (p < 0.001 and controls (p < 0.001, respectively. From ROC curves, 185.3 ng/mL as the optimal cut-off value of serum HA for diagnosis of significant fibrosis, giving its sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR- and AC of 84.2%, 83.3%, 90.6%, 73.5%, 5.04, 0.19 and 83.9, respectively. While 132.7 ng/mL was the optimal cut-off value of serum LN, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, LR+, LR- and AC were 71.9%, 80.0%, 87.2%, 60.0%, 3.59%, 0.35% and 74.7, respectively. Combinations of HA and LN by serial tests showed a perfect specificity and PPV of 100%, at the same time sensitivity declined to 63.2% and LR+ increased to 18.9, while parallel tests revealed a good sensitivity of 94.7%, NPV to 86.4%, and LR- declined to 0.08. CONCLUSIONS: Serum HA and LN concentrations showed positive correlation with the stages of liver fibrosis. Detection of serum HA and LN in predicting significant fibrosis showed good diagnostic performance, which would be further optimized by combination of the two indices. HA and LN would be clinically useful serum markers for predicting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B, when liver biopsy is

  18. The predictive value of preoperative perfusion/ventilation scintigraphy, spirometry and x-ray of the lungs on postoperative pulmonary complications. A prospective study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fogh, J.; Wille-Joergensen, P.; Brynjolf, I.; Thorup, J.; Joergensen, T.; Bording, L.; Kjaergaard, J.

    1987-01-01

    Prospectively, 125 patients were examined with 99m Tc-perfusion scintigraphy, 89m Kr- or 127 Xe-ventilation scintigraphy and chest radiogram prior to major surgery. Postoperative therapy-demanding pulmonary complications occurred in 18% of the patients. A statistical association could be demonstrated between all the preoperative tests except ventilation scintigraphy and the frequency of complications. However, the predictive values of each of the tests, or even the combined results, were not significantly different from the frequency of complications among all the patients. It is concluded that the predictive values of perfusion-and ventilation scintigraphy, spirometry and radiogram of the chest are too low to be of any practical use. (author)

  19. Freshman year alcohol and marijuana use prospectively predict time to college graduation and subsequent adult roles and independence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilhite, Emily R; Ashenhurst, James R; Marino, Elise N; Fromme, Kim

    2017-06-15

    This study examined how freshman year substance use prospectively predicted time to college graduation, and whether delayed graduation predicted postponed adoption of adult roles and future substance use. Participants were part of a longitudinal study that began in 2004. The first analyses focused on freshman year (N = 2,050). The second analyses corresponded to a subset of participants at age 27 (N = 575). Measures included self-reported substance use, adult role adoption, and university reported graduation dates. Results indicated that frequent binge drinking and marijuana use during freshman year predicted delayed college graduation. Those who took longer to graduate were more likely to have lower incomes and were less likely to obtain a graduate degree. Taking 5-6 years to graduate was associated with greater likelihood of alcohol-related problems. Findings support the importance of interventions during freshman year of college to decrease substance use and promote timely graduation.

  20. Study of prognostic significance of antenatal ultrasonography and renin angiotensin system activation in predicting disease severity in posterior urethral valves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Divya Bhadoo

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: Study on prognostic significance of antenatal ultrasonography and renin angiotensin system activation in predicting disease severity in posterior urethral valves. Materials and Methods: Antenatally diagnosed hydronephrosis patients were included. Postnatally, they were divided into two groups, posterior urethral valve (PUV and non-PUV. The studied parameters were: Gestational age at detection, surgical intervention, ultrasound findings, cord blood and follow up plasma renin activity (PRA values, vesico-ureteric reflux (VUR, renal scars, and glomerular filtration rate (GFR. Results: A total of 25 patients were included, 10 PUV and 15 non-PUV. All infants with PUV underwent primary valve incision. GFR was less than 60 ml/min/1.73 m 2 body surface area in 4 patients at last follow-up. Keyhole sign, oligoamnios, absent bladder cycling, and cortical cysts were not consistent findings on antenatal ultrasound in PUV. Cord blood PRA was significantly higher (P < 0.0001 in PUV compared to non-PUV patients. Gestational age at detection of hydronephrosis, cortical cysts, bladder wall thickness, and amniotic fluid index were not significantly correlated with GFR while PRA could differentiate between poor and better prognosis cases with PUV. Conclusions: Ultrasound was neither uniformly useful in diagnosing PUV antenatally, nor differentiating it from cases with non-PUV hydronephrosis. In congenital hydronephrosis, cord blood PRA was significantly higher in cases with PUV compared to non-PUV cases and fell significantly after valve ablation. Cord blood PRA could distinguish between poor and better prognosis cases with PUV.

  1. The Future Is Bright and Predictable: The Development of Prospective Life Stories across Childhood and Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

    2013-01-01

    When do children develop the ability to imagine their future lives in terms of a coherent prospective life story? We investigated whether this ability develops in parallel with the ability to construct a life story for the past and narratives about single autobiographical events in the past and future. Four groups of school children aged 9 to 15…

  2. The Role of Big Five Personality Traits in Predicting Prospective EFL Teachers' Academic Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkagac, Senay; Öz, Hüseyin

    2017-01-01

    This study sought to find out the possible relationships between personality traits and academic achievement of prospective English as a Foreign Language (EFL) teachers. A total of 200 university students from a major state university voluntarily participated in the study. Data were collected through the International Personality Item Tool (IPIP)…

  3. Theory of mind and switching predict prospective memory performance in adolescents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Altgassen, A.M.; Vetter, N.C.; Phillips, L.H.; Akgün, C.; Kliegel, M.

    2014-01-01

    Research indicates ongoing development of prospective memory as well as theory of mind and executive functions across late childhood and adolescence. However, so far the interplay of these processes has not been investigated. Therefore, the purpose of the current study was to investigate whether

  4. Predictive factors of postpartum fatigue: a prospective cohort study among working women

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.; Beek, A.J. van der; Hendriksen, I.J.M.; Bruinvels, D.J.; Poppel, M.N. van

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The aim of this study was to investigate which prepartum determinants contribute to the development of postpartum (PP) fatigue among working women in the Netherlands. Methods A prospective cohort study in 15 Dutch companies was conducted to measure different potential predictors using

  5. Motor dual-tasking deficits predict falls in Parkinson's disease: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinzel, Sebastian; Maechtel, Mirjam; Hasmann, Sandra E; Hobert, Markus A; Heger, Tanja; Berg, Daniela; Maetzler, Walter

    2016-05-01

    Falls severely affect lives of Parkinson's disease (PD) patients. Cognitive impairment including dual-tasking deficits contribute to fall risk in PD. However, types of dual-tasking deficits preceding falls in PD are still unclear. Walking velocities during box-checking and subtracting serial 7s were assessed twice a year in 40 PD patients over 2.8 ± 1.0 years. Fourteen patients reported a fall within this period (4 excluded fallers already reported falls at baseline). Their dual-task costs (DTC; mean ± standard deviation) 4.2 ± 2.2 months before the first fall were compared with 22 patients never reporting falls. ROC analyses and logistic regressions accounting for DTC, UPDRS-III and disease duration were used for faller classification and prediction. Only walking/box-checking predicted fallers. Fallers showed higher DTC for walking while box-checking, p = 0.029, but not for box-checking while walking, p = 0.178 (combined motor DTC, p = 0.022), than non-fallers. Combined motor DTC classified fallers and non-fallers (area under curve: 0.75; 95% confidence interval, CI: 0.60-0.91) with 71.4% sensitivity (95%CI: 41.9%-91.6%) and 77.3% specificity (54.6%-92.2%), and significantly predicted future fallers (p = 0.023). Here, 20.4%-points higher combined motor DTC (i.e. the mean difference between fallers and non-fallers) was associated with a 2.6 (1.1-6.0) times higher odds to be a future faller. Motor dual-tasking is a potentially valuable predictor of falls in PD, suggesting that avoiding dual task situations as well as specific motor dual-task training might help to prevent falls in PD. These findings and their therapeutic relevance need to be further validated in PD patients without fall history, in early PD stages, and with various motor-motor dual-task challenges. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Prospective validation of a predictive model that identifies homeless people at risk of re-presentation to the emergency department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Gaye; Hepworth, Graham; Weiland, Tracey; Manias, Elizabeth; Gerdtz, Marie Frances; Kelaher, Margaret; Dunt, David

    2012-02-01

    To prospectively evaluate the accuracy of a predictive model to identify homeless people at risk of representation to an emergency department. A prospective cohort analysis utilised one month of data from a Principal Referral Hospital in Melbourne, Australia. All visits involving people classified as homeless were included, excluding those who died. Homelessness was defined as living on the streets, in crisis accommodation, in boarding houses or residing in unstable housing. Rates of re-presentation, defined as the total number of visits to the same emergency department within 28 days of discharge from hospital, were measured. Performance of the risk screening tool was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values and likelihood ratios. Over the study period (April 1, 2009 to April 30, 2009), 3298 presentations from 2888 individuals were recorded. The homeless population accounted for 10% (n=327) of all visits and 7% (n=211) of all patients. A total of 90 (43%) homeless people re-presented to the emergency department. The predictive model included nine variables and achieved 98% (CI, 0.92-0.99) sensitivity and 66% (CI, 0.57-0.74) specificity. The positive predictive value was 68% and the negative predictive value was 98%. The positive likelihood ratio 2.9 (CI, 2.2-3.7) and the negative likelihood ratio was 0.03 (CI, 0.01-0.13). The high emergency department re-presentation rate for people who were homeless identifies unresolved psychosocial health needs. The emergency department remains a vital access point for homeless people, particularly after hours. The risk screening tool is key to identify medical and social aspects of a homeless patient's presentation to assist early identification and referral. Copyright © 2012 College of Emergency Nursing Australasia Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Can middle cerebral artery peak systolic velocity predict polycythemia in monochorionic-diamniotic twins? Evidence from a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fishel-Bartal, M; Weisz, B; Mazaki-Tovi, S; Ashwal, E; Chayen, B; Lipitz, S; Yinon, Y

    2016-10-01

    The antenatal diagnosis of twin anemia-polycythemia sequence (TAPS) in monochorionic-diamniotic (MCDA) twin pregnancies is based on elevated peak systolic velocity in the middle cerebral artery (MCA-PSV) in the donor twin and decreased MCA-PSV in the recipient twin. However, the association between these parameters and polycythemia has not yet been established. The aim of this study was to determine whether MCA-PSV can predict polycythemia in MCDA pregnancies. This was a prospective cohort study of MCDA pregnancies recruited at 14-18 weeks' gestation from a single tertiary care center between January 2011 and June 2014. Fetal MCA Doppler waveforms were recorded every 2 weeks from 18 weeks' gestation until delivery. Only those with an MCA-PSV measurement within 1 week of delivery were included in the analysis. Neonatal hematocrit level was determined in all twins from venous blood obtained within 4 h of delivery. Polycythemia was defined as a hematocrit of > 65%, and anemia as a hematocrit of  8 g/dL and reticulocyte count ratio of > 1.7 were observed. Of 162 MCDA pregnancies followed during the study period, 69 had an MCA-PSV measurement within 1 week of delivery and were included in the study. Twenty-five neonates were diagnosed with polycythemia and nine twin pairs met the criteria for TAPS. In a pooled analysis, MCA-PSV was negatively correlated with neonatal hematocrit (P = 0.017, r = -0.215) and was significantly higher in anemic fetuses than in normal controls (1.15 multiples of the median (MoM) vs 1.02 MoM, respectively; P = 0.001). However, MCA-PSV was similar among polycythemic and normal fetuses (0.95 MoM vs 1.02 MoM, respectively; P = 0.47). Intertwin difference in MCA-PSV (delta MCA-PSV) was positively correlated with intertwin hematocrit difference (P = 0.002, r = 0.394). Moreover, twin pregnancies with an intertwin hematocrit difference of > 24% had a significantly greater delta MCA-PSV than did those with an intertwin hematocrit

  8. Towards an improved prediction of the free radical scavenging potency of flavonoids: the significance of double PCET mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amić, Ana; Marković, Zoran; Dimitrić Marković, Jasmina M; Stepanić, Višnja; Lučić, Bono; Amić, Dragan

    2014-01-01

    The 1H(+)/1e(-) and 2H(+)/2e(-) proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) processes of free radical scavenging by flavonoids were theoretically studied for aqueous and lipid environments using the PM6 and PM7 methods. The results reported here indicate that the significant contribution of the second PCET mechanism, resulting in the formation of a quinone/quinone methide, effectively discriminates the active from inactive flavonoids. The predictive potency of descriptors related to the energetics of second PCET mechanisms (the second O-H bond dissociation enthalpy (BDE2) related to hydrogen atom transfer (HAT) mechanism, and the second electron transfer enthalpy (ETE2) related to sequential proton loss electron transfer (SPLET) mechanism) are superior to the currently used indices, which are related to the first 1H(+)/1e(-) processes, and could serve as primary descriptors in development of the QSAR (quantitative structure-activity relationships) of flavonoids. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Significance of uncertainties derived from settling tank model structure and parameters on predicting WWTP performance - A global sensitivity analysis study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty derived from one of the process models – such as one-dimensional secondary settling tank (SST) models – can impact the output of the other process models, e.g., biokinetic (ASM1), as well as the integrated wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) models. The model structure and parameter...... and from the last aerobic bioreactor upstream to the SST (Garrett/hydraulic method). For model structure uncertainty, two one-dimensional secondary settling tank (1-D SST) models are assessed, including a first-order model (the widely used Takács-model), in which the feasibility of using measured...... uncertainty of settler models can therefore propagate, and add to the uncertainties in prediction of any plant performance criteria. Here we present an assessment of the relative significance of secondary settling model performance in WWTP simulations. We perform a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) based...

  10. Does Group-Level Commitment Predict Employee Well-Being?: A Prospective Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clausen, Thomas; Christensen, Karl Bang; Nielsen, Karina

    2015-11-01

    To investigate the links between group-level affective organizational commitment (AOC) and individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances. A total of 5085 care workers from 301 workgroups in the Danish eldercare services participated in both waves of the study (T1 [2005] and T2 [2006]). The three outcomes were analyzed using linear multilevel regression analysis, multilevel Poisson regression analysis, and multilevel logistic regression analysis, respectively. Group-level AOC (T1) significantly predicted individual-level psychological well-being, self-reported sickness absence, and sleep disturbances (T2). The association between group-level AOC (T1) and psychological well-being (T2) was fully mediated by individual-level AOC (T1), and the associations between group-level AOC (T1) and self-reported sickness absence and sleep disturbances (T2) were partially mediated by individual-level AOC (T1). Group-level AOC is an important predictor of employee well-being in contemporary health care organizations.

  11. Predictive significance of standardized uptake value parameters of FDG-PET in patients with non-small cell lung carcinoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duan, X-Y.; Wang, W.; Li, M.; Li, Y.; Guo, Y-M. [PET-CT Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi' an, Jiaotong University, Xi' an, Shaanxi (China)

    2015-02-03

    {sup 18}F-fluoro-2-deoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) is widely used to diagnose and stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). The aim of this retrospective study was to evaluate the predictive ability of different FDG standardized uptake values (SUVs) in 74 patients with newly diagnosed NSCLC. {sup 18}F-FDG PET/CT scans were performed and different SUV parameters (SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub avg}, SUV{sub T/L}, and SUV{sub T/A}) obtained, and their relationship with clinical characteristics were investigated. Meanwhile, correlation and multiple stepwise regression analyses were performed to determine the primary predictor of SUVs for NSCLC. Age, gender, and tumor size significantly affected SUV parameters. The mean SUVs of squamous cell carcinoma were higher than those of adenocarcinoma. Poorly differentiated tumors exhibited higher SUVs than well-differentiated ones. Further analyses based on the pathologic type revealed that the SUV{sub max}, SUV{sub avg}, and SUV{sub T/L} of poorly differentiated adenocarcinoma tumors were higher than those of moderately or well-differentiated tumors. Among these four SUV parameters, SUV{sub T/L} was the primary predictor for tumor differentiation. However, in adenocarcinoma, SUV{sub max} was the determining factor for tumor differentiation. Our results showed that these four SUV parameters had predictive significance related to NSCLC tumor differentiation; SUV{sub T/L} appeared to be most useful overall, but SUV{sub max} was the best index for adenocarcinoma tumor differentiation.

  12. Development of the rational scheme of geological exploration process, its analysis and significance for prospecting and exploration of hydrocarbons at the russian sector of the Caspian sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Bystrova

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available To conduct a justified assessment of the perspective resources of the Caspian Sea and adjacent territories, the authors develop a rational scheme of the geological exploration process with its analysis and identification of significance for hydrocarbon exploration in the northern part of the Caspian Sea. The paper outlines the methodological approaches and concepts of introducing this scheme in search for oil and gas. This allows us to justify and select the optimal set of research methods at various stages of oil and gas production. The system of structure and principles of organization scheme of the geological prospecting process allow to identify the optimal complexes of methods of geological-geophysical and other studies for these stages. The article provides information confirming the necessity of developing and implementing this scheme in the geological exploration process of the studied territory. The necessary development of opportunities in carrying out this work fundamentally changes the qualitative aspect of the geological exploration process. The facts presented in the article allow to study in detail the structures of the shelf zone, the thicknesses and composition of productive subsalt deposits, and to trace their interrelation with continental structural elements. The paper shows the importance of providing, at different levels, a rationale and choice of an optimal set of research methods at different stages of oil and gas prospecting during the development of a rational geological exploration scheme for hydrocarbons in water areas. This paper presents a proposed block diagram of a marine geological prospecting process for hydrocarbons. It describes the sequence of performing the types of work at the regional, exploratory and exploration stages. For each stage of the study, the authors set the tasks, determine the objects of research, methods of geological and geophysical research and their results, and determine methods for

  13. The clinical significance of isolated loss of lordosis on cervical spine computed tomography in blunt trauma patients: a prospective evaluation of 1,007 patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejaddam, Ali Y; Kaafarani, Haytham M A; Ramly, Elie P; Avery, Laura L; Yeh, Dante D; King, David R; de Moya, Marc A; Velmahos, George C

    2015-11-01

    A negative computed tomographic (CT) scan may be used to rule out cervical spine (c-spine) injury after trauma. Loss of lordosis (LOL) is frequently found as the only CT abnormality. We investigated whether LOL should preclude c-spine clearance. All adult trauma patients with isolated LOL at our Level I trauma center (February 1, 2011 to May 31, 2012) were prospectively evaluated. The primary outcome was clinically significant injury on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), flexion-extension views, and/or repeat physical examination. Of 3,333 patients (40 ± 17 years, 60% men) with a c-spine CT, 1,007 (30%) had isolated LOL. Among 841 patients with a Glasgow Coma Scale score of 15, no abnormalities were found on MRI, flexion-extension views, and/or repeat examinations, and all collars were removed. Among 166 patients with Glasgow Coma Scale less than 15, 3 (.3%) had minor abnormal MRI findings but no clinically significant injury. Isolated LOL on c-spine CT is not associated with a clinically significant injury and should not preclude c-spine clearance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Accuracy and Predictability of PANC-3 Scoring System over APACHE II in Acute Pancreatitis: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rathnakar, Surag Kajoor; Vishnu, Vikram Hubbanageri; Muniyappa, Shridhar; Prasath, Arun

    2017-02-01

    Acute Pancreatitis (AP) is one of the common conditions encountered in the emergency room. The course of the disease ranges from mild form to severe acute form. Most of these episodes are mild and spontaneously subsiding within 3 to 5 days. In contrast, Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP) occurring in around 15-20% of all cases, mortality can range between 10 to 85% across various centres and countries. In such a situation we need an indicator which can predict the outcome of an attack, as severe or mild, as early as possible and such an indicator should be sensitive and specific enough to trust upon. PANC-3 scoring is such a scoring system in predicting the outcome of an attack of AP. To assess the accuracy and predictability of PANC-3 scoring system over APACHE II in predicting severity in an attack of AP. This prospective study was conducted on 82 patients admitted with the diagnosis of pancreatitis. Investigations to evaluate PANC-3 and APACHE II were done on all the patients and the PANC-3 and APACHE II score was calculated. PANC-3 score has a sensitivity of 82.6% and specificity of 77.9%, the test had a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) of 0.59 and Negative Predictive Value (NPV) of 0.92. Sensitivity of APACHE II in predicting SAP was 91.3% and specificity was 96.6% with PPV of 0.91, NPV was 0.96. Our study shows that PANC-3 can be used to predict the severity of pancreatitis as efficiently as APACHE II. The interpretation of PANC-3 does not need expertise and can be applied at the time of admission which is an advantage when compared to classical scoring systems.

  15. A Study on Pharmacokinetics of Bosentan with Systems Modeling, Part 2: Prospectively Predicting Systemic and Liver Exposure in Healthy Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Rui; Kimoto, Emi; Niosi, Mark; Tess, David A; Lin, Jian; Tremaine, Larry M; Di, Li

    2018-04-01

    Predicting human pharmacokinetics of novel compounds is a critical step in drug discovery and clinical study design but continues to be a challenging task for hepatic transporter substrates, particularly in predicting their liver exposures. In this study, using bosentan as an example, we prospectively predicted systemic exposure and the (pseudo) steady-state unbound liver-to-unbound plasma ratio ( K p uu ) in healthy subjects using 1) a mechanistic approach solely based on in vitro hepatocyte assays and 2) an approach based on hepatic process rates from monkey in vivo data but Michaelis-Menten constants from in vitro data. Both methods reasonably match the observed human systemic time course data, but the second method leads to better prediction accuracy. In addition, the second method can predict a human K p uu value that is close to the value deduced using clinical data. We also generated rat and monkey liver K p uu values in terminal studies. However, these directly measured animal values are different from the deduced human value. Copyright © 2018 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

  16. Information processing biases concurrently and prospectively predict depressive symptoms in adolescents: Evidence from a self-referent encoding task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Samantha L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

    2016-01-01

    Negative information processing biases have been hypothesised to serve as precursors for the development of depression. The current study examined negative self-referent information processing and depressive symptoms in a community sample of adolescents (N = 291, Mage at baseline = 12.34 ± 0.61, 53% female, 47.4% African-American, 49.5% Caucasian and 3.1% Biracial). Participants completed a computerised self-referent encoding task (SRET) and a measure of depressive symptoms at baseline and completed an additional measure of depressive symptoms nine months later. Several negative information processing biases on the SRET were associated with concurrent depressive symptoms and predicted increases in depressive symptoms at follow-up. Findings partially support the hypothesis that negative information processing biases are associated with depressive symptoms in a nonclinical sample of adolescents, and provide preliminary evidence that these biases prospectively predict increases in depressive symptoms.

  17. Processes with weak gauge boson pairs at hadron colliders. Precise predictions and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salfelder, Lukas

    2017-02-08

    In the last years, scattering processes comprising pairs of the massive weak gauge bosons gain more and more attention. Those reactions provide particularly promising means to investigate the very mechanism responsible for electroweak symmetry breaking in the Standard Model of particle physics and to search for new physics entering via the weak sector of the theory. Precisely predicting the differential distributions of the final-state particles in realistic conditions is an essential prerequisite to potentially reveal tiny deviations induced by physics beyond the Standard Model. In this thesis we present a calculation of the next-to-leading order (NLO) electroweak corrections to W-boson pair production at CERNs Large Hadron Collider (LHC), as well as a detailed analysis of vector-boson scattering (VBS) processes at a future high-energy proton.proton collider. In particular, our calculation of the NLO electroweak corrections to the hadronic process pp→W{sup +}W{sup -}→4 leptons takes the leptonic W-boson decays as well as all off-shell effects fully into account and, thus, is the first prediction providing NLO accuracy everywhere in phase space. Employing realistic event selection criteria, we study the influence of the corrections in situations that are typical for the experimental analyses in the high-energy region and for Higgs-boson precision studies in the channel H→WW{sup *}, to which direct W-boson pair production represents an important irreducible background. We observe non-trivial distortions of the differential distributions that, if not properly included in upcoming analyses, could easily be misidentified as first signs of new physics. Furthermore, we compare our predictions to previous results obtained by employing the so-called double-pole approximation. At small and intermediate scales the two approaches show the expected agreement at the level of fractions of a percent, while in the TeV range the differences may easily reach several tens of

  18. Accuracy of Consecutive Fecal Calprotectin Measurements to Predict Relapse in Inflammatory Bowel Disease Patients Under Maintenance With Anti-TNF Therapy: A Prospective Longitudinal Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreiro-Iglesias, Rocio; Barreiro-de Acosta, Manuel; Lorenzo-Gonzalez, Aurelio; Dominguez-Muñoz, Juan E

    2018-03-01

    Predicting relapse in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) patients could allow early changes in therapy. We aimed at evaluating the accuracy of consecutive fecal calprotectin (FC) measurements to predict flares in IBD patients under maintenance treatment with anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) drugs. A prospective longitudinal cohort study with 16-month follow-up period was designed. IBD patients in clinical remission for at least 6 months under anti-TNF therapy were included. FC was quantified at 4-month intervals for 1 year, and patients were clinically evaluated for relapse at 2-month intervals. Diagnostic accuracy of FC for predicting relapse was evaluated by receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis. In total, 95 of 106 included patients finalized the study and were analyzed (median age 44 y, 50.5% female, 75% with Crohn's disease). A total of 30 patients (31.6%) had a relapse over follow-up. FC concentration was significantly higher in patients who relapsed (477 μg/g) than in patients who maintained in remission (65 μg/g) (Ppredict remission was 130 μg/g (negative predictive value of 100%), and 300 μg/g to predict relapse (positive predictive value of 78.3%). FC is a good predictor of clinical relapse and a particularly good predictor of remission over the following 4 months in patients with IBD on maintenance therapy with anti-TNF drugs. FC levels 300 μg/g allow predicting relapse with a high probability at any time over the following 4 months.

  19. TNFα blockade for inflammatory rheumatic diseases is associated with a significant gain in android fat mass and has varying effects on adipokines: a 2-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toussirot, Éric; Mourot, Laurent; Dehecq, Barbara; Wendling, Daniel; Grandclément, Émilie; Dumoulin, Gilles

    2014-04-01

    To evaluate the long-term consequences of TNFα inhibitors on body composition and fat distribution, as well as changes in serum adipokines in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Eight patients with RA and twelve with AS requiring a TNFα inhibitor were prospectively followed for 2 years. Body composition was evaluated by dual X-ray absorptiometry and included measurements of total fat mass, lean mass, fat in the gynoid and android regions, and visceral fat. Serum leptin, total and high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin, resistin, and ghrelin were also assessed. There was a significant gain in body mass index (p = 0.05) and a tendency for weight (p = 0.07), android fat (p = 0.07), and visceral fat (p = 0.059) increase in patients with RA, while in AS, total fat mass significantly increased (p = 0.02) with a parallel weight gain (p = 0.07). When examining the whole population of patients, we observed after 2 years a significant increase in body weight (+1.9%; p = 0.003), body mass index (+2.5%; p = 0.004), total fat mass (+11.1%; p = 0.007), and fat in the android region (+18.3%; p = 0.02). There was a substantial, albeit nonsignificant gain in visceral fat (+24.3%; p = 0.088). Lean mass and gynoid fat were not modified. No major changes were observed for serum leptin, total adiponectin, and ghrelin, while HMW adiponectin and the HMW/total adiponectin ratio tended to decrease (-15.2%, p = 0.057 and -9.3%, p = 0.067, respectively). Resistin decreased significantly (-22.4%, p = 0.01). Long-term TNFα inhibition in RA and AS is associated with a significant gain in fat mass, with a shift to the android (visceral) region. This fat redistribution raises questions about its influence on the cardiovascular profile of patients receiving these treatments.

  20. Does dairy food intake predict arterial stiffness and blood pressure in men?: Evidence from the Caerphilly Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingstone, Katherine M; Lovegrove, Julie A; Cockcroft, John R; Elwood, Peter C; Pickering, Janet E; Givens, D Ian

    2013-01-01

    Arterial stiffness is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease events and mortality, and like blood pressure, may be influenced by dairy food intake. Few studies have investigated the effects of consumption of these foods on prospective measures of arterial stiffness. The present analysis aimed to investigate the prospective relationship between milk, cheese, cream, and butter consumption and aortic pulse wave velocity, augmentation index, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, as well as cross-sectional relationships between these foods and systolic and diastolic blood pressure and metabolic markers using data from the Caerphilly Prospective Study. Included in this cohort were 2512 men, aged 45 to 59 years, who were followed up at 5-year intervals for a mean of 22.8 years (number follow-up 787). Augmentation index was 1.8% lower in subjects in the highest quartiles of dairy product intake compared with the lowest (P trend=0.021), whereas in the highest group of milk consumption systolic blood pressure was 10.4 mm Hg lower (P trend=0.033) than in nonmilk consumers after a 22.8-year follow-up. Cross-sectional analyses indicated that across increasing quartiles of butter intake, insulin (P trend=0.011), triacylglycerol (P trend=0.023), total cholesterol (P trend=0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (P trend=0.027) were higher. Across increasing groups of milk intake and quartiles of dairy product intake, glucose (P trend=0.032) and triglyceride concentrations (P trend=0.031) were lower, respectively. The present results confirm that consumption of milk predicts prospective blood pressure, whereas dairy product consumption, excluding butter, is not detrimental to arterial stiffness and metabolic markers. Further research is needed to better understand the mechanisms that underpin these relationships.

  1. Validation of the RRE-90 Scale to Predict Stroke Risk after Transient Symptoms with Infarction: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo Song

    Full Text Available The risk of stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA for patients with a positive diffusion-weighted image (DWI, i.e., transient symptoms with infarction (TSI, is much higher than for those with a negative DWI. The aim of this study was to validate the predictive value of a web-based recurrence risk estimator (RRE; http://www.nmr.mgh.harvard.edu/RRE/ of TSI.Data from the prospective hospital-based TIA database of the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University were analyzed. The RRE and ABCD2 scores were calculated within 7 days of symptom onset. The predictive outcome was ischemic stroke occurrence at 90 days. The receiver-operating characteristics curves were plotted, and the predictive value of the two models was assessed by computing the C statistics.A total of 221 eligible patients were prospectively enrolled, of whom 46 (20.81% experienced a stroke within 90 days. The 90-day stroke risk in high-risk TSI patients (RRE ≥4 was 3.406-fold greater than in those at low risk (P <0.001. The C statistic of RRE (0.681; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.592-0.771 was statistically higher than that of ABCD2 score (0.546; 95% CI, 0.454-0.638; Z = 2.115; P = 0.0344 at 90 days.The RRE score had a higher predictive value than the ABCD2 score for assessing the 90-day risk of stroke after TSI.

  2. Predicting meaningful outcomes to medication and self-help treatments for binge-eating disorder in primary care: The significance of early rapid response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grilo, Carlos M; White, Marney A; Masheb, Robin M; Gueorguieva, Ralitza

    2015-04-01

    We examined rapid response among obese patients with binge-eating disorder (BED) in a randomized clinical trial testing antiobesity medication and self-help cognitive-behavioral therapy (shCBT), alone and in combination, in primary-care settings. One hundred four obese patients with BED were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 treatments: sibutramine, placebo, shCBT + sibutramine, or shCBT + placebo. Treatments were delivered by generalist primary-care physicians and the medications were given double-blind. Independent assessments were performed by trained and monitored doctoral research clinicians monthly throughout treatment, posttreatment (4 months), and at 6- and 12-month follow-ups (i.e., 16 months after randomization). Rapid response, defined as ≥65% reduction in binge eating by the fourth treatment week, was used to predict outcomes. Rapid response characterized 47% of patients, was unrelated to demographic and baseline clinical characteristics, and was significantly associated, prospectively, with remission from binge eating at posttreatment (51% vs. 9% for nonrapid responders), 6-month (53% vs. 23.6%), and 12-month (46.9% vs. 23.6%) follow-ups. Mixed-effects model analyses revealed that rapid response was significantly associated with greater decreases in binge-eating or eating-disorder psychopathology, depression, and percent weight loss. Our findings, based on a diverse obese patient group receiving medication and shCBT for BED in primary-care settings, indicate that patients who have a rapid response achieve good clinical outcomes through 12-month follow-ups after ending treatment. Rapid response represents a strong prognostic indicator of clinically meaningful outcomes, even in low-intensity medication and self-help interventions. Rapid response has important clinical implications for stepped-care treatment models for BED. clinicaltrials.gov: NCT00537810 (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. A Prospective Cohort Study Evaluating the Ability of Anticipated Pain, Perceived Analgesic Needs, and Psychological Traits to Predict Pain and Analgesic Usage following Cesarean Delivery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brendan Carvalho

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. This study aimed to determine if preoperative psychological tests combined with simple pain prediction ratings could predict pain intensity and analgesic usage following cesarean delivery (CD. Methods. 50 healthy women undergoing scheduled CD with spinal anesthesia comprised the prospective study cohort. Preoperative predictors included 4 validated psychological questionnaires (Anxiety Sensitivity Index (ASI, Fear of Pain (FPQ, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and Eysenck Personality Questionnaire and 3 simple ratings: expected postoperative pain (0–10, anticipated analgesic threshold (0–10, and perceived analgesic needs (0–10. Postoperative outcome measures included post-CD pain (combined rest and movement and opioid used for the 48-hour study period. Results. Bivariate correlations were significant with expected pain and opioid usage (r=0.349, anticipated analgesic threshold and post-CD pain (r=-0.349, and perceived analgesic needs and post-CD pain (r=0.313. Multiple linear regression analysis found that expected postoperative pain and anticipated analgesic needs contributed to post-CD pain prediction modeling (R2=0.443, p<0.0001; expected postoperative pain, ASI, and FPQ were associated with opioid usage (R2=0.421, p<0.0001. Conclusion. Preoperative psychological tests combined with simple pain prediction ratings accounted for 44% and 42% of pain and analgesic use variance, respectively. Preoperatively determined expected postoperative pain and perceived analgesic needs appear to be useful predictors for post-CD pain and analgesic requirements.

  4. The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michelle Kendell

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Questions: In people with chronic non-specific low back pain (LBP, what is the predictive and discriminative validity of the STarT Back Tool (SBT for pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change at 1-year follow-up? What is the profile of the SBT risk subgroups with respect to demographic variables, pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and psychological measures? Design: Prospective cohort study. Participants: A total of 290 adults with dominant axial LBP of ≥ 3 months’ duration recruited from the general community, and private physiotherapy, psychology, and pain-management clinics in Western Australia. Outcome measures: The 1-year follow-up measures were pain intensity, LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change. Results: Outcomes were collected on 264 participants. The SBT categorised 82 participants (28% as low risk, 116 (40% as medium risk, and 92 (32% as high risk. The risk subgroups differed significantly (p < 0.05 on baseline pain, disability, and psychological scores. The SBT’s predictive ability was strongest for disability: RR was 2.30 (95% CI 1.28 to 4.10 in the medium-risk group and 2.86 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.11 in the high-risk group. The SBT’s predictive ability was weaker for pain: RR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.51 in the medium-risk group and 1.26 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.52 in the high-risk group. For the SBT total score, the AUC was 0.71 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.77 for disability and 0.63 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.71 for pain. Conclusion: This was the first large study to investigate the SBT in a population exclusively with chronic LBP. The SBT provided an acceptable indication of 1-year disability, had poor predictive and discriminative ability for future pain, and was unable to predict or discriminate global perceived change. In this cohort with chronic non-specific LBP, the SBT’s predictive and discriminative abilities were restricted to disability at 1

  5. Scissor-type knife significantly improves self-completion rate of colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection: Single-center prospective randomized trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashina, Takeshi; Takeuchi, Yoji; Nagai, Kengo; Matsuura, Noriko; Ito, Takashi; Fujii, Mototsugu; Hanaoka, Noboru; Higashino, Koji; Uedo, Noriya; Ishihara, Ryu; Iishi, Hiroyasu

    2017-05-01

    Colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (C-ESD) is recognized as a difficult procedure. Recently, scissors-type knives were launched to reduce the difficulty of C-ESD. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy and safety of the combined use of a scissors-type knife and a needle-type knife with a water-jet function (WJ needle-knife) for C-ESD compared with using the WJ needle-knife alone. This was a prospective randomized controlled trial in a referral center. Eighty-five patients with superficial colorectal neoplasms were enrolled and randomly assigned to undergo C-ESD using a WJ needle-knife alone (Flush group) or a scissor-type knife-supported WJ needle-knife (SB Jr group). Procedures were conducted by two supervised residents. Primary endpoint was self-completion rate by the residents. Self-completion rate was 67% in the SB Jr group, which was significantly higher than that in the Flush group (39%, P = 0.01). Even after exclusion of four patients in the SB Jr group in whom C-ESD was completed using the WJ needle-knife alone, the self-completion rate was significantly higher (63% vs 39%; P = 0.03). Median procedure time among the self-completion cases did not differ significantly between the two groups (59 vs 51 min; P = 0.14). No fatal adverse events were observed in either group. In this single-center phase II trial, scissor-type knife significantly improved residents' self-completion rate for C-ESD, with no increase in procedure time or adverse events. A multicenter trial would be warranted to confirm the validity of the present study. © 2016 Japan Gastroenterological Endoscopy Society.

  6. Predictive accuracy of Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale assessment during pregnancy for the risk of developing postpartum depressive symptoms : a prospective cohort study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, J. L.; Beijers, C.; van Pampus, M. G.; Verbeek, T.; Stolk, R. P.; Milgrom, J.; Bockting, C. L. H.; Burger, H.

    2014-01-01

    ObjectiveTo investigate whether the 10-item Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) administered antenatally is accurate in predicting postpartum depressive symptoms, and whether a two-item EPDS has similar predictive accuracy. DesignProspective cohort study. SettingObstetric care in the

  7. Integrated genomic and immunophenotypic classification of pancreatic cancer reveals three distinct subtypes with prognostic/predictive significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wartenberg, Martin; Cibin, Silvia; Zlobec, Inti; Vassella, Erik; Eppenberger-Castori, Serenella M M; Terracciano, Luigi; Eichmann, Micha; Worni, Mathias; Gloor, Beat; Perren, Aurel; Karamitopoulou, Eva

    2018-04-16

    Current clinical classification of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is unable to predict prognosis or response to chemo- or immunotherapy and does not take into account the host reaction to PDAC-cells. Our aim is to classify PDAC according to host- and tumor-related factors into clinically/biologically relevant subtypes by integrating molecular and microenvironmental findings. A well-characterized PDAC-cohort (n=110) underwent next-generation sequencing with a hotspot cancer panel, while Next-generation Tissue-Microarrays were immunostained for CD3, CD4, CD8, CD20, PD-L1, p63, hyaluronan-mediated motility receptor (RHAMM) and DNA mismatch-repair proteins. Previous data on FOXP3 were integrated. Immune-cell counts and protein expression were correlated with tumor-derived driver mutations, clinicopathologic features (TNM 8. 2017), survival and epithelial-mesenchymal-transition (EMT)-like tumor budding.  Results: Three PDAC-subtypes were identified: the "immune-escape" (54%), poor in T- and B-cells and enriched in FOXP3+Tregs, with high-grade budding, frequent CDKN2A- , SMAD4- and PIK3CA-mutations and poor outcome; the "immune-rich" (35%), rich in T- and B-cells and poorer in FOXP3+Tregs, with infrequent budding, lower CDKN2A- and PIK3CA-mutation rate and better outcome and a subpopulation with tertiary lymphoid tissue (TLT), mutations in DNA damage response genes (STK11, ATM) and the best outcome; and the "immune-exhausted" (11%) with immunogenic microenvironment and two subpopulations: one with PD-L1-expression and high PIK3CA-mutation rate and a microsatellite-unstable subpopulation with high prevalence of JAK3-mutations. The combination of low budding, low stromal FOXP3-counts, presence of TLTs and absence of CDKN2A-mutations confers significant survival advantage in PDAC-patients. Immune host responses correlate with tumor characteristics leading to morphologically recognizable PDAC-subtypes with prognostic/predictive significance. Copyright ©2018

  8. Urine NGAL Predicts Severity of Acute Kidney Injury After Cardiac Surgery: A Prospective Study

    OpenAIRE

    Bennett, Michael; Dent, Catherine L.; Ma, Qing; Dastrala, Sudha; Grenier, Frank; Workman, Ryan; Syed, Hina; Ali, Salman; Barasch, Jonathan; Devarajan, Prasad

    2008-01-01

    Background and objectives: The authors have previously shown that urine neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL), measured by a research ELISA, is an early predictive biomarker of acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB). In this study, whether an NGAL immunoassay developed for a standardized clinical platform (ARCHITECT analyzer®, Abbott Diagnostics Division, Abbott Laboratories, Abbott Park, IL) can predict AKI after CPB was tested.

  9. General life satisfaction predicts dementia in community living older adults: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peitsch, Lorraine; Tyas, Suzanne L; Menec, Verena H; St John, Philip D

    2016-07-01

    Low life satisfaction predicts adverse outcomes, and may predict dementia. The objectives were: (1) to determine if life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in those with normal cognition at baseline; and (2) to determine if different aspects of life satisfaction differentially predict dementia. Secondary analysis of an existing population-based cohort study with initial assessment in 1991 and follow-up five years later. Initially, 1,751 adults age 65+ living in the community were sampled from a representative sampling frame. Of these, 1,024 were alive and had complete data at time 2, of whom 96 were diagnosed with dementia. Life satisfaction was measured using the Terrible-Delightful scale, which measures overall life satisfaction on a 7-point scale, as well as various aspects of life satisfaction (e.g. friendships, finances, etc.) Dementia was diagnosed by clinical examination using DSM-IIIR criteria. Logistic regression models were constructed for the outcome of dementia at time 2, and adjusted for age, gender, education, and comorbidities. Overall life satisfaction predicted dementia five years later, at time 2. The unadjusted Odds Ratio (OR; 95% confidence interval) for dementia at time 2 was 0.72 (0.55, 0.95) per point. The adjusted OR for dementia was 0.70 (0.51, 0.96). No individual item on the life satisfaction scale predicted dementia. However, the competing risk of mortality was very high for some items. A global single-item measure of life satisfaction predicts dementia over a five year period in older adults without cognitive impairment.

  10. Validation of DAB2IP methylation and its relative significance in predicting outcome in renal cell carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Liang-Yun; Kapur, Payal; Wu, Kai-Jie; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yan-Hong; Liao, Bing; He, Da-Lin; Chen, Wei; Margulis, Vitaly; Hsieh, Jer-Tsong; Luo, Jun-Hang

    2016-01-01

    We have recently reported tumor suppressive role of DAB2IP in RCC development. In this study, We identified one CpG methylation biomarker (DAB2IP CpG1) located UTSS of DAB2IP that was associated with poor overall survival in a cohort of 318 ccRCC patients from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). We further validated the prognostic accuracy of DAB2IP CpG methylation by pyrosequencing quantitative methylation assay in 224 ccRCC patients from multiple Chinese centers (MCHC set), and 239 patients from University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center at Dallas (UTSW set) by using FFPE samples. DAB2IP CpG1 can predict the overall survival of patients in TCGA, MCHC, and UTSW sets independent of patient age, Fuhrman grade and TNM stage (all p<0.05). DAB2IP CpG1 successfully categorized patients into high-risk and low-risk groups with significant differences of clinical outcome in respective clinical subsets, regardless of age, sex, grade, stage, or race (HR: 1.63-7.83; all p<0.05). The detection of DAB2IP CpG1 methylation was minimally affected by ITH in ccRCC. DAB2IP mRNA expression was regulated by DNA methylation in vitro. DAB2IP CpG1 methylation is a practical and repeatable biomarker for ccRCC, which can provide prognostic value that complements the current staging system. PMID:27129174

  11. Prospective prediction of resistance to neoadjuvant therapy in patients with locoregional esophageal adenocarcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosen DG

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Daniel G Rosen,1 Weiwei Shan,2 Natalie Lassen,2 Clare Johnson,2 Kristen Oelschlager,2 Yaeli Bierman-Harrar,1 Kenneth A Kesler,3 Derek Maetzold,2 Sunil Badve,3 Robert W Cook,2 Romil Saxena3 1Baylor College of Medicine, Houston TX, USA; 2Castle Biosciences, Incorporated, Friendswood, TX, USA; 3Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, USA Background: To clinically validate a multianalyte algorithmic immunohistochemistry (IHC assay that has been previously shown to accurately identify patients with locoregional esophageal adenocarcinoma (EC who will exhibit extreme resistance to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy. Methods: Archived biopsy specimens of EC were subject to IHC examination of compartmentalized immunoreactivity of nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB, Sonic Hedgehog (SHH, and GLI family zinc finger 1 (Gli-1, and a labeling index score was assigned to each biomarker. Test prediction was generated by logistic regression predictive modeling, using the labeling index scores for all three analytes from each sample, referring to a validated training set of 167 EC patients. Accuracy of the test was determined by comparing the predicted outcomes with pathologically determined College of American Pathologists tumor response grade. Analytical validity of the test was measured by comparing validation set prediction results obtained in two independent Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendment-certified laboratories, and by measuring concordance between two trained labeling index readers. Results: Specimens from 64 patients that met specific criteria were collected. No technical failure was encountered during the IHC labeling procedures. The logistic regression algorithm generated an area under the curve of 0.96 and 0.85 for the 64 sample cohort in two independent clinical laboratories, respectively, comparing predictive results with the established training set. Positive predictive values of 88% and 82% were also achieved in each laboratory, respectively. A

  12. Significant reduction in red blood cell transfusions in a general hospital after successful implementation of a restrictive transfusion policy supported by prospective computerized order auditing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yerrabothala, Swaroopa; Desrosiers, Kevin P; Szczepiorkowski, Zbigniew M; Dunbar, Nancy M

    2014-10-01

    Our hospital transfusion policy was recently revised to recommend single-unit red blood cell transfusion (RBC TXN) for nonbleeding inpatients when the hemoglobin (Hb) level is not more than 7 g/dL. Our computerized provider order entry system was reconfigured to provide real-time decision support using prospective computerized order auditing based on the most recent Hb level and to remove the single-click ordering option for 2-unit RBC TXNs to enhance compliance. This study was undertaken to assess the impact of these changes on hospital transfusion practice. This study analyzed the total number of transfusion events, proportion of single and 2-unit transfusions and the Hb transfusion trigger in the preimplementation period (October 2011-March 2012) compared to the postimplementation period (October 2012-March 2013). In the postimplementation period the total number of RBC units transfused/1000 patient-days decreased from 60.8 to 44.2 (p auditing has resulted in significantly decreased RBC utilization at our institution. © 2014 AABB.

  13. History of major depressive disorder prospectively predicts worse quality of life in women with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jim, Heather S L; Small, Brent J; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B

    2012-06-01

    Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n = 29) and no history of depression (n = 144). Women with Stages 0-II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p ≤ 0.01). Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression.

  14. History of Major Depressive Disorder Prospectively Predicts Worse Quality of Life in Women with Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Small, Brent J.; Minton, Susan; Andrykowski, Michael; Jacobsen, Paul B.

    2012-01-01

    Background Data are scarce about whether past history of major depressive disorder in the absence of current depression places breast cancer patients at risk for worse quality of life. Purpose The current study prospectively examined quality of life during chemotherapy in breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder (n=29) and no history of depression (n=144). Methods Women with Stages 0–II breast cancer were assessed prior to and at the completion of chemotherapy. Major depressive disorder was assessed via structured interview and quality of life with the SF-36. Results Patients with past major depressive disorder displayed greater declines in physical functioning relative to patients with no history of depression (p≤0.01). Conclusions Findings suggest that breast cancer patients with a history of resolved major depressive disorder are at increased risk for declines in physical functioning during chemotherapy relative to patients with no history of depression. PMID:22167580

  15. Social integration prospectively predicts changes in heart rate variability among individuals undergoing migration stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gouin, Jean-Philippe; Zhou, Biru; Fitzpatrick, Stephanie

    2015-04-01

    Poor social integration increases risk for poor health. The psychobiological pathways underlying this effect are not well-understood. This study utilized a migration stress model to prospectively investigate the impact of social integration on change in high-frequency heart rate variability (HF-HRV), a marker of autonomic functioning. Sixty new international students were recruited shortly after their arrival in the host country and assessed 2 and 5 months later. At each assessment period, participants provided information on social integration and loneliness and had their resting HF-HRV evaluated. There was an overall decrease in HF-HRV over time. The magnitude of the within-person and between-person effects of social integration on HRV increased over time, such that greater social integration was associated with higher HF-HRV at later follow-ups. These results suggest that altered autonomic functioning might represent a key pathway linking social integration to health outcomes.

  16. The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendell, Michelle; Beales, Darren; O'Sullivan, Peter; Rabey, Martin; Hill, Jonathan; Smith, Anne

    2018-04-01

    In people with chronic non-specific low back pain (LBP), what is the predictive and discriminative validity of the STarT Back Tool (SBT) for pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change at 1-year follow-up? What is the profile of the SBT risk subgroups with respect to demographic variables, pain intensity, self-reported LBP-related disability, and psychological measures? Prospective cohort study. A total of 290 adults with dominant axial LBP of≥3months' duration recruited from the general community, and private physiotherapy, psychology, and pain-management clinics in Western Australia. The 1-year follow-up measures were pain intensity, LBP-related disability, and global self-perceived change. Outcomes were collected on 264 participants. The SBT categorised 82 participants (28%) as low risk, 116 (40%) as medium risk, and 92 (32%) as high risk. The risk subgroups differed significantly (ppredictive ability was strongest for disability: RR was 2.30 (95% CI 1.28 to 4.10) in the medium-risk group and 2.86 (95% CI 1.60 to 5.11) in the high-risk group. The SBT's predictive ability was weaker for pain: RR was 1.25 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.51) in the medium-risk group and 1.26 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.52) in the high-risk group. For the SBT total score, the AUC was 0.71 (95% CI 0.64 to 0.77) for disability and 0.63 (95% CI 0.55 to 0.71) for pain. This was the first large study to investigate the SBT in a population exclusively with chronic LBP. The SBT provided an acceptable indication of 1-year disability, had poor predictive and discriminative ability for future pain, and was unable to predict or discriminate global perceived change. In this cohort with chronic non-specific LBP, the SBT's predictive and discriminative abilities were restricted to disability at 1year. [Kendell M, Beales D, O'Sullivan P, Rabey M, Hill J, Smith A (2018) The predictive ability of the STarT Back Tool was limited in people with chronic low back pain: a prospective

  17. Internet Addiction among Adolescents May Predict Self-Harm/Suicidal Behavior: A Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Pei-Yin; Yeh, Chin-Bin

    2018-06-01

    To explore the role of Internet addiction in the development of self-harm/suicidal behavior among adolescents after 1-year of follow-up. We conducted this 1-year, prospective cohort study of 1861 adolescents (mean age 15.93 years) attending a senior high school in Taiwan; 1735 respondents (93.2%) were classified as having no history of self-harm/suicidal attempts in the initial assessment and were referred to as the "noncase" cohort. The Chen Internet Addiction Scale was used to identify individuals with Internet addiction. The participants were evaluated for self-harm/suicidal behavior again 1 year later and the "noncase" cohort was selected for statistical analysis. To examine the relationship between Internet addiction and self-harm/suicidal behavior, multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed using Internet addiction at baseline as the predictor for newly developed self-harm/suicidal behavior in the next year, after adjustment for potential confounding variables. The prevalence rate of Internet addiction at baseline was 23.0%. There were 59 students (3.9%) who were identified as having developed new self-harm/suicidal behaviors on follow-up assessments. After controlling for the effects of potential confounders, the relative risk of newly emerging self-harm/suicidal behavior for participants who were classified as Internet addicted was 2.41 (95% CI 1.16-4.99, P = .018) when compared with those without Internet addiction. Our findings indicate that Internet addiction is prospectively associated with the incidence of self-harm/suicidal behavior in adolescents. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Feasibility and predictive performance of the Hendrich Fall Risk Model II in a rehabilitation department: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanini, Isabella; Mastrangelo, Stefano; Bargellini, Annalisa; Bassoli, Agnese; Bosi, Gabriele; Lombardi, Francesco; Tolomelli, Stefano; Lusuardi, Mirco; Merlo, Andrea

    2018-01-11

    Falls are a common adverse event in both elderly inpatients and patients admitted to rehabilitation units. The Hendrich Fall Risk Model II (HIIFRM) has been already tested in all hospital wards with high fall rates, with the exception of the rehabilitation setting. This study's aim is to address the feasibility and predictive performances of HIIFRM in a hospital rehabilitation department. A 6 months prospective study in a Italian rehabilitation department with patients from orthopaedic, pulmonary, and neurological rehabilitation wards. All admitted patients were enrolled and assessed within 24 h of admission by means of the HIIFRM. The occurrence of falls was checked and recorded daily. HIIFRM feasibility was assessed as the percentage of successful administrations at admission. HIIFRM predictive performance was determined in terms of area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), best cutoff, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, along with their asymptotic 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). One hundred ninety-one patents were admitted. HIIFRM was feasible in 147 cases (77%), 11 of which suffered a fall (7.5%). Failures in administration were mainly due to bedridden patients (e.g. minimally conscious state, vegetative state). AUC was 0.779(0.685-0.873). The original HIIFRM cutoff of 5 led to a sensitivity of 100% with a mere specificity of 49%(40-57%), thus suggesting using higher cutoffs. Moreover, the median score for non-fallers at rehabilitation units was higher than that reported in literature for geriatric non fallers. The best trade-off between sensitivity and specificity was obtained by using a cutoff of 8. This lead to sensitivity = 73%(46-99%), specificity = 72%(65-80%), positive predictive value = 17% and negative predictive value = 97%. These results support the use of the HIIFRM as a predictive tool. The HIIFRM showed satisfactory feasibility and predictive performances in

  19. FDG PET during radiochemotherapy is predictive of outcome at 1 year in non-small-cell lung cancer patients: a prospective multicentre study (RTEP2)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vera, Pierre; Edet-Sanson, Agathe; Modzelewski, Romain; Mezzani-Saillard, Sandrine; Thureau, Sebastien; Dubray, Bernard; Menard, Jean-Francois; Meyer, Marc-Etienne; Jalali, Khadija; Bardet, Stephane; Lerouge, Delphine; Houzard, Claire; Mornex, Francoise; Olivier, Pierre; Faure, Guillaume; Rousseau, Caroline; Mahe, Marc-Andre; Gomez, Philippe; Brenot-Rossi, Isabelle; Salem, Naji

    2014-01-01

    To assess prospectively the prognostic value of FDG PET/CT during curative-intent radiotherapy (RT) with or without concomitant chemotherapy in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Patients with histological proof of invasive localized NSCLC and evaluable tumour, and who were candidates for curative-intent radiochemotherapy (RCT) or RT were preincluded after providing written informed consent. Definitive inclusion was conditional upon significant FDG uptake before RT (PET 1 ). All included patients had a FDG PET/CT scan during RT (PET 2 , mean dose 43 Gy) and were evaluated by FDG PET/CT at 3 months and 1 year after RT. The main endpoint was death (from whatever cause) or tumour progression at 1 year. Of 77 patients preincluded, 52 were evaluable. Among the evaluable patients, 77 % received RT with induction chemotherapy and 73 % RT with concomitant chemotherapy. At 1 year, 40 patients (77 %) had died or had tumour progression. No statistically significant association was found between stage (IIIB vs. other), histology (squamous cell carcinoma vs. other), induction or concomitant chemotherapy, and death/tumour progression at 1 year. The SUV max in the PET 2 scan was the single variable predictive of death or tumour progression at 1 year (odds ratio 1.97, 95 % CI 1.25 - 3.09, p = 0.003) in multivariate analysis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.85 (95 % CI 0.73 - 0.94, p -4 ). A SUV max value of 5.3 in the PET 2 scan yielded a sensitivity of 70 % and a specificity of 92 % for predicting tumour progression or death at 1 year. This prospective multicentre study demonstrated the prognostic value in terms of disease-free survival of SUV max assessed during the 5th week of curative-intent RT or RCT in NSCLC patients (NCT01261598; RTEP2 study). (orig.)

  20. Prospective trial of angiography and embolization for all grade III to V blunt splenic injuries: nonoperative management success rate is significantly improved.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Preston R; Chang, Michael C; Hoth, J Jason; Mowery, Nathan T; Hildreth, Amy N; Martin, R Shayn; Holmes, James H; Meredith, J Wayne; Requarth, Jay A

    2014-04-01

    Nonoperative management (NOM) of blunt splenic injury is well accepted. Substantial failure rates in higher injury grades remain common, with one large study reporting rates of 19.6%, 33.3%, and 75% for grades III, IV, and V, respectively. Retrospective data show angiography and embolization can increase salvage rates in these severe injuries. We developed a protocol requiring referral of all blunt splenic injuries, grades III to V, without indication for immediate operation for angiography and embolization. We hypothesized that angiography and embolization of high-grade blunt splenic injury would reduce NOM failure rates in this population. This was a prospective study at our Level I trauma center as part of a performance-improvement project. Demographics, injury characteristics, and outcomes were compared with historic controls. The protocol required all stable patients with grade III to V splenic injuries be referred for angiography and embolization. In historic controls, referral was based on surgeon preference. From January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2012, there were 168 patients with grades III to V spleen injuries admitted; NOM was undertaken in 113 (67%) patients. The protocol was followed in 97 patients, with a failure rate of 5%. Failure rate in the 16 protocol deviations was 25% (p = 0.02). Historic controls from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2009 were compared with the protocol group. One hundred and fifty-three patients with grade III to V injuries were admitted during this period, 80 (52%) patients underwent attempted NOM. Failure rate was significantly higher than for the protocol group (15%, p = 0.04). Use of a protocol requiring angiography and embolization for all high-grade spleen injuries slated for NOM leads to a significantly decreased failure rate. We recommend angiography and embolization as an adjunct to NOM for all grade III to V splenic injuries. Copyright © 2014 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Motivational Selectivity Prospectively Predicts Couples' Realization of Their Goal to Have a Child

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rauers, Antje; Böhnke, Anja; Riediger, Michaela

    2013-01-01

    Developmental theories have emphasized that motivational selectivity--focusing on a few goals instead of "wanting it all"--regulates development in individuals, dyads, or groups. We provide first evidence that this motivational strategy predicts an objective, goal-related developmental outcome years later. We followed up on initially…

  2. Early EEG for outcome prediction of postanoxic coma : Prospective cohort study with cost-minimization analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sondag, Lotte; Ruijter, Barry J.; Tjepkema-Cloostermans, Marleen C.; Beishuizen, Albertus; Bosch, Frank H.; van Til, Janine A.; van Putten, Michel J.A.M.; Hofmeijer, Jeannette

    2017-01-01

    Background: We recently showed that electroencephalography (EEG) patterns within the first 24 hours robustly contribute to multimodal prediction of poor or good neurological outcome of comatose patients after cardiac arrest. Here, we confirm these results and present a cost-minimization analysis.

  3. Prediction of renal mass aggressiveness using clinical and radiographic features: a global, multicentre prospective study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Golan, Shay; Eggener, Scott; Subotic, Svetozar; Barret, Eric; Cormio, Luigi; Naito, Seiji; Tefekli, Ahmet; Pilar Laguna Pes, M.

    2016-01-01

    To examine the ability of preoperative clinical characteristics to predict histological features of renal masses (RMs). Data from consecutive patients with clinical stage I RMs treated surgically between 2010 and 2011 in the Clinical Research Office of Endourology Society (CROES) Renal Mass Registry

  4. Utility of Hippocrates' prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-12-15

    To determine if one of Hippocrates' aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Time to death. We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. © St John et al 2014.

  5. Utility of Hippocrates’ prognostic aphorism to predict death in the modern era: prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Patrick R

    2014-01-01

    Objective To determine if one of Hippocrates’ aphorisms, identifying good cognition and good appetite as two prognostic factors, predicts death in community living older adults in the modern era. Design Secondary analysis of an existing population based cohort study. Setting Manitoba Study of Health and Aging. Participants 1751 community living adults aged more than 65 enrolled in the Manitoba Study of Health and Aging in 1991 and followed over five years. Main outcome measure Time to death. Methods We recreated the hippocratic prognosticator using an item that measures appetite drawn from the Center for Epidemiologic Studies-depression subscale, and the mini-mental state examination, with a score of >25 being considered as normal. People with normal cognition and appetite were compared with those with either poor cognition or poor appetite. We constructed Cox regression models, adjusted for age, sex, education, and functional status. Results The prognostic aphorism predicted death, with an unadjusted hazard ratio of 2.37 (95% confidence interval 1.93 to 2.88) and a hazard ratio of 1.71 (1.37 to 2.12) adjusted for age, sex, and education. Both poor appetite and poor cognition predicted death. The sensitivity and specificity were not, however, sufficient for the measure to be used alone. Conclusion An aphorism devised by Hippocrates millennia ago can predict death in the modern era. PMID:25512328

  6. Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

  7. Triaging TIA/minor stroke patients using the ABCD2 score does not predict those with significant carotid disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, J; Isherwood, J; Eveson, D; Naylor, A R

    2012-05-01

    'Rapid Access' TIA Clinics use the ABCD(2) score to triage patients as it is not possible to see everyone with a suspected TIA TIA/minor stroke or 'carotid territory' TIA/minor stroke. Between 1.10.2008 and 31.04.2011, 2452 patients were referred to the Leicester Rapid Access TIA Service. After Stroke Physician review, 1273 (52%) were thought to have suffered a minor stroke/TIA. Of these, both FD/ED referrer and Specialist Stroke Consultant ABCD(2) scores and carotid Duplex ultrasound studies were available for 843 (66%). The yield for identifying a ≥50% stenosis or carotid occlusion was 109/843 (12.9%) in patients with 'any territory' TIA/minor stroke and 101/740 (13.6%) in those with a clinical diagnosis of 'carotid territory' TIA/minor stroke. There was no association between ABCD(2) score and the likelihood of encountering significant carotid disease and analyses of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for FD/ED referrer and stroke specialist ABCD(2) scores showed no prediction of carotid stenosis (FD/ED: AUC 0.50 (95%CI 0.44-0.55, p = 0.9), Specialist: AUC 0.51 (95%CI 0.45-0.57, p = 0.78). The ABCD(2) score was unable to identify TIA/minor stroke patients with a higher prevalence of clinically important ipsilateral carotid disease. Copyright © 2012 European Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Patient-specific metrics of invasiveness reveal significant prognostic benefit of resection in a predictable subset of gliomas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne L Baldock

    Full Text Available Malignant gliomas are incurable, primary brain neoplasms noted for their potential to extensively invade brain parenchyma. Current methods of clinical imaging do not elucidate the full extent of brain invasion, making it difficult to predict which, if any, patients are likely to benefit from gross total resection. Our goal was to apply a mathematical modeling approach to estimate the overall tumor invasiveness on a patient-by-patient basis and determine whether gross total resection would improve survival in patients with relatively less invasive gliomas.In 243 patients presenting with contrast-enhancing gliomas, estimates of the relative invasiveness of each patient's tumor, in terms of the ratio of net proliferation rate of the glioma cells to their net dispersal rate, were derived by applying a patient-specific mathematical model to routine pretreatment MR imaging. The effect of varying degrees of extent of resection on overall survival was assessed for cohorts of patients grouped by tumor invasiveness.We demonstrate that patients with more diffuse tumors showed no survival benefit (P = 0.532 from gross total resection over subtotal/biopsy, while those with nodular (less diffuse tumors showed a significant benefit (P = 0.00142 with a striking median survival benefit of over eight months compared to sub-totally resected tumors in the same cohort (an 80% improvement in survival time for GTR only seen for nodular tumors.These results suggest that our patient-specific, model-based estimates of tumor invasiveness have clinical utility in surgical decision making. Quantification of relative invasiveness assessed from routinely obtained pre-operative imaging provides a practical predictor of the benefit of gross total resection.

  9. Survival prediction algorithms miss significant opportunities for improvement if used for case selection in trauma quality improvement programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heim, Catherine; Cole, Elaine; West, Anita; Tai, Nigel; Brohi, Karim

    2016-09-01

    Quality improvement (QI) programs have shown to reduce preventable mortality in trauma care. Detailed review of all trauma deaths is a time and resource consuming process and calculated probability of survival (Ps) has been proposed as audit filter. Review is limited on deaths that were 'expected to survive'. However no Ps-based algorithm has been validated and no study has examined elements of preventability associated with deaths classified as 'expected'. The objective of this study was to examine whether trauma performance review can be streamlined using existing mortality prediction tools without missing important areas for improvement. We conducted a retrospective study of all trauma deaths reviewed by our trauma QI program. Deaths were classified into non-preventable, possibly preventable, probably preventable or preventable. Opportunities for improvement (OPIs) involve failure in the process of care and were classified into clinical and system deviations from standards of care. TRISS and PS were used for calculation of probability of survival. Peer-review charts were reviewed by a single investigator. Over 8 years, 626 patients were included. One third showed elements of preventability and 4% were preventable. Preventability occurred across the entire range of the calculated Ps band. Limiting review to unexpected deaths would have missed over 50% of all preventability issues and a third of preventable deaths. 37% of patients showed opportunities for improvement (OPIs). Neither TRISS nor PS allowed for reliable identification of OPIs and limiting peer-review to patients with unexpected deaths would have missed close to 60% of all issues in care. TRISS and PS fail to identify a significant proportion of avoidable deaths and miss important opportunities for process and system improvement. Based on this, all trauma deaths should be subjected to expert panel review in order to aim at a maximal output of performance improvement programs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier

  10. Neural Reactivity to Emotional Stimuli Prospectively Predicts the Impact of a Natural Disaster on Psychiatric Symptoms in Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kujawa, Autumn; Hajcak, Greg; Danzig, Allison P; Black, Sarah R; Bromet, Evelyn J; Carlson, Gabrielle A; Kotov, Roman; Klein, Daniel N

    2016-09-01

    Natural disasters expose entire communities to stress and trauma, leading to increased risk for psychiatric symptoms. Yet, the majority of exposed individuals are resilient, highlighting the importance of identifying underlying factors that contribute to outcomes. The current study was part of a larger prospective study of children in Long Island, New York (n = 260). At age 9, children viewed unpleasant and pleasant images while the late positive potential (LPP), an event-related potential component that reflects sustained attention toward salient information, was measured. Following the event-related potential assessment, Hurricane Sandy, the second costliest hurricane in United States history, hit the region. Eight weeks after the hurricane, mothers reported on exposure to hurricane-related stress and children's internalizing and externalizing symptoms. Symptoms were reassessed 8 months after the hurricane. The LPP predicted both internalizing and externalizing symptoms after accounting for prehurricane symptomatology and interacted with stress to predict externalizing symptoms. Among children exposed to higher levels of hurricane-related stress, enhanced neural reactivity to unpleasant images predicted greater externalizing symptoms 8 weeks after the disaster, while greater neural reactivity to pleasant images predicted lower externalizing symptoms. Moreover, interactions between the LPP and stress continued to predict externalizing symptoms 8 months after the hurricane. Results indicate that heightened neural reactivity and attention toward unpleasant information, as measured by the LPP, predispose children to psychiatric symptoms when exposed to higher levels of stress related to natural disasters, while greater reactivity to and processing of pleasant information may be a protective factor. Copyright © 2015 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity and sedentary behaviors, but not reflective intentions, prospectively predict non-exercise activity thermogenesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheval, Boris; Sarrazin, Philippe; Pelletier, Luc

    2014-01-01

    Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91) completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA) and sedentary behaviors (IASB). Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a) positively predicted by IAPA, (b) negatively predicted by IASB, and (c) was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined.

  12. Impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity and sedentary behaviors, but not reflective intentions, prospectively predict non-exercise activity thermogenesis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Cheval

    Full Text Available Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91 completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA and sedentary behaviors (IASB. Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a positively predicted by IAPA, (b negatively predicted by IASB, and (c was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined.

  13. Validation of the cephalosporin intradermal skin test for predicting immediate hypersensitivity: a prospective study with drug challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, S-Y; Park, S Y; Kim, S; Lee, T; Lee, Y S; Kwon, H-S; Cho, Y S; Moon, H-B; Kim, T-B

    2013-07-01

    Cephalosporin is a major offending agent in terms of drug hypersensitivity along with penicillin. Cephalosporin intradermal skin tests (IDTs) have been widely used; however, their validity for predicting immediate hypersensitivity has not been studied. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of cephalosporin intradermal skin testing before administration of the drug. We prospectively conducted IDTs with four cephalosporins, one each of selected first-, second-, third-, or fourth-generation cephalosporins: ceftezol; cefotetan or cefamandole; ceftriaxone or cefotaxime; and flomoxef, respectively, as well as with penicillin G. After the skin test, whatever the result, one of the tested cephalosporins was administered intravenously and the patient was carefully observed. We recruited 1421 patients who required preoperative cephalosporins. Seventy-four patients (74/1421, 5.2%) were positive to at least one cephalosporin. However, none of responders had immediate hypersensitivity reactions after a challenge dose of the same or different cephalosporin, which were positive in the skin test. Four patients who suffered generalized urticaria and itching after challenge gave negative skin tests for the corresponding drug. The IDT for cephalosporin had a sensitivity of 0%, a specificity of 97.5%, a negative predictive value of 99.7%, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0%, when challenged with the same drugs that were positive in the skin test. Routine skin testing with a cephalosporin before its administration is not useful for predicting immediate hypersensitivity because of the extremely low sensitivity and PPV of the skin test (CRIS registration no. KCT0000455). © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Interaction effects in the theory of planned behaviour: Predicting fruit and vegetable consumption in three prospective cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothe, Emily J; Mullan, Barbara A

    2015-09-01

    The theory of planned behaviour (TPB) has been criticized for not including interactions between major constructs thought to underlie behaviour. This study investigated the application of the TPB to the prediction of fruit and vegetable consumption across three prospective cohorts. The primary aim of the study was to investigate whether interactions between major constructs in the theory would increase the ability of the model to predict intention to consume fruit and vegetables (i.e., attitude × perceived behavioural control [PBC], subjective norm × PBC, subjective norm × attitude) and self-reported fruit and vegetable intake (i.e., PBC × intention). Secondary data analysis from three cohorts: One predictive study (cohort 1) and two intervention studies (cohorts 2 and 3). Participants completed a TPB measure at baseline and a measure of fruit and vegetable intake at 1 week (cohort 1; n = 90) or 1 month (cohorts 2 and 3; n = 296). Attitude moderated the impact of PBC on intention. PBC moderated the impact of intention on behaviour at 1 week but not 1 month. The variance accounted for by the interactions was small. However, the presence of interactions between constructs within the TPB demonstrates a need to consider interactions between variables within the TPB in both theoretical and applied research using the model. © 2014 The British Psychological Society.

  15. QRS analysis using wavelet transformation for the prediction of response to cardiac resynchronization therapy: a prospective pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vassilikos, Vassilios P; Mantziari, Lilian; Dakos, Georgios; Kamperidis, Vasileios; Chouvarda, Ioanna; Chatzizisis, Yiannis S; Kalpidis, Panagiotis; Theofilogiannakos, Efstratios; Paraskevaidis, Stelios; Karvounis, Haralambos; Mochlas, Sotirios; Maglaveras, Nikolaos; Styliadis, Ioannis H

    2014-01-01

    Wider QRS and left bundle branch block morphology are related to response to cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). A novel time-frequency analysis of the QRS complex may provide additional information in predicting response to CRT. Signal-averaged electrocardiograms were prospectively recorded, before CRT, in orthogonal leads and QRS decomposition in three frequency bands was performed using the Morlet wavelet transformation. Thirty eight patients (age 65±10years, 31 males) were studied. CRT responders (n=28) had wider baseline QRS compared to non-responders and lower QRS energies in all frequency bands. The combination of QRS duration and mean energy in the high frequency band had the best predicting ability (AUC 0.833, 95%CI 0.705-0.962, p=0.002) followed by the maximum energy in the high frequency band (AUC 0.811, 95%CI 0.663-0.960, p=0.004). Wavelet transformation of the QRS complex is useful in predicting response to CRT. © 2013.

  16. Sense of coherence predicts post-myocardial infarction trajectory of leisure time physical activity: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerber Yariv

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical activity confers a survival advantage after myocardial infarction (MI, yet the majority of post-MI patients are not regularly active. Since sense of coherence (SOC has been associated with health outcomes and some health behaviours, we investigated whether it plays a role in post-MI physical activity. We examined the predictive role of SOC in the long-term trajectory of leisure time physical activity (LTPA after MI using a prospective cohort design. Methods A cohort of 643 patients aged ≤ 65 years admitted to hospital in central Israel with incident MI between February 1992 and February 1993 were followed up for 13 years. Socioeconomic, clinical and psychological factors, including SOC, were assessed at baseline, and LTPA was self-reported on 5 separate occasions during follow-up. The predictive role of SOC in long-term trajectory of LTPA was assessed using generalized estimating equations. Results SOC was consistently associated with engagement in LTPA throughout follow-up. Patients in the lowest SOC tertile had almost twice the odds (odds ratio,1.99; 95% confidence interval,1.52-2.60 of decreasing their engagement in LTPA as those in the highest tertile. A strong association remained after controlling for disease severity, depression, sociodemographic and clinical factors. Conclusion Our evidence suggests that SOC predicts LTPA trajectory post-MI. Assessment of SOC can help identify high-risk MI survivors, who may require additional help in following secondary prevention recommendations which can dramatically improve prognosis.

  17. Poor self-control and harsh punishment in childhood prospectively predict borderline personality symptoms in adolescent girls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallquist, Michael N; Hipwell, Alison E; Stepp, Stephanie D

    2015-08-01

    Developmental theories of borderline personality disorder (BPD) propose that harsh, invalidating parenting of a child with poor self-control and heightened negative emotionality often leads to a coercive cycle of parent-child transactions that increase risk for BPD symptoms such as emotion dysregulation. Although parenting practices and child temperament have previously been linked with BPD, less is known about the prospective influences of caregiver and child characteristics. Using annual longitudinal data from the Pittsburgh Girls Study (n = 2,450), our study examined how reciprocal influences among harsh parenting, self-control, and negative emotionality between ages 5 and 14 predicted the development of BPD symptoms in adolescent girls ages 14 to 17. Consistent with developmental theories, we found that harsh punishment, poor self-control, and negative emotionality predicted BPD symptom severity at age 14. Only worsening self-control between ages 12 and 14, however, predicted growth in BPD symptoms from 14 to 17. Furthermore, the effects of harsh punishment and poor self-control on age 14 BPD symptoms were partially mediated by their earlier reciprocal effects on each other between ages 5 and 14. Our findings underscore the need to address both child and parental contributions to dysfunctional transactions in order to stem the development of BPD symptoms. Moreover, problems with self-regulation in early adolescence may indicate heightened risk for subsequent BPD. Altogether, these results increase our understanding of developmental trajectories associated with BPD symptoms in adolescent girls. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. [Predicting bipolar disorder: what can we learn from prospective cohort studies?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffroy, P A; Leboyer, M; Scott, J

    2015-02-01

    Bipolar disorder (BD) is a life course illness; and there is increasing awareness of the many personal, social and economic consequences of the illness in older adults. However, it is important to emphasize that BD usually begins in late adolescence or early adulthood and 75 % cases have a first episode in this age period. This early onset and the associated level of disability mean that BD is the 4th leading cause of global disease burden in adolescents and young adults. Internationally, mental health services are increasingly striving to diagnose and treat BD as early as possible to try to prevent poor outcomes. In addition, researchers are using methods employed previously in psychosis studies as these may help us to recognise the earliest manifestations of BD. If it is possible to identify sub-threshold and 'ultra high risk' syndromes for BD, this might lead to new interventions that could target the prevention of first episodes of mania. One approach to understanding these risk syndromes is to examine prospective community cohort studies and BD offspring studies. This paper reviews prospective cohort studies that identify robust risk factors in early illness onset, which was defined as age at onset of BD between 15-25 years. We found that although > 50 % of individuals who developed BD had developed a putative BD prodrome prior to 14 years of age, this usually began with non-specific symptoms that overlap with similar presentations for those who later develop psychosis or severe depression. However, there are some features that seem to better identify groups with a BD "at-risk" syndrome. This syndrome is frequently composed of several factors such as mood lability, depressive episodes, prior anxiety, sleep and/or conduct disorders, attention and concentration impairment, altered energy patterns, and a family history of mania and/or depression. The course of these early predictors suggests the precursor syndromes are composed of mini-clusters of symptoms many

  19. The contribution of a 9p21.3 variant, a KIF6 variant, and C-reactive protein to predicting risk of myocardial infarction in a prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tracy Russell P

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic risk factors might improve prediction of coronary events. Several variants at chromosome 9p21.3 have been widely reported to be associated with coronary heart disease (CHD in prospective and case-control studies. A variant of KIF6 (719Arg has also been reported to be associated with increased risk of CHD in large prospective studies, but not in case-control studies. We asked whether the addition of genetic information (the 9p21.3 or KIF6 variants or a well-established non-genetic risk factor (C-reactive protein [CRP] can improve risk prediction by the Framingham Risk Score (FRS in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS--a prospective observational study of risk factors for cardiovascular disease among > 5,000 participants aged 65 or older. Methods Improvement of risk prediction was assessed by change in the area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC and by net reclassification improvement (NRI. Results Among white participants the FRS was improved by addition of KIF6 719Arg carrier status among men as assessed by the AUC (from 0.581 to 0.596, P = 0.03 but not by NRI (NRI = 0.027, P = 0.32. Adding both CRP and 719Arg carrier status to the FRS improved risk prediction by the AUC (0.608, P = 0.02 and NRI (0.093, P = 0.008 in men, but not women (P ≥ 0.24. Conclusions While none of these risk markers individually or in combination improved risk prediction among women, a combination of KIF6 719Arg carrier status and CRP levels modestly improved risk prediction among white men; although this improvement is not significant after multiple-testing correction. These observations should be investigated in other prospective studies.

  20. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

  1. Archiving Nganyi Weatherlore and Connecting with Modern Science of Rain Prediction: Challenges and Prospects

    OpenAIRE

    Simala, K Inyani

    2010-01-01

    World Oral Literature Project Workshop 2010 This paper discusses the integration of indigenous knowledge about rain prediction with modern meteorological forecasts in climate risk management to support community-based adaptation. The paper is based on research among the Nganyi community of Western Kenya to increase the visibility, effectiveness, sustainability and acceptability of local knowledge by integrating it with modern science rainfall forecasts. This research found that community m...

  2. A prospective cohort study on the clinical utility of second trimester mean arterial blood pressure in the prediction of late-onset preeclampsia among Nigerian women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udenze, I C; Arikawe, A P; Makwe, C C; Olowoselu, O F

    2017-06-01

    Early detection of preeclampsia will help reduce the morbidities and mortalities associated with the disorder. Late-onset preeclampsia was the predominant presentation in this cohort. The search for biomarkers for predicting preeclampsia is still ongoing. Mean arterial blood pressure (MABP), which has the advantage of presenting a single cutoff value compared with the use of systolic and diastolic blood pressure measurements, merits evaluation. The study aims to evaluate the clinical utility of second trimester MABP in the prediction of preeclampsia. This was a prospective cohort study of 155 normotensive, nonproteinuric pregnant women without prior history of gestational hypertension. The women were booked patients attending the antenatal clinic at the Lagos University Teaching Hospital and were all in their second trimesters of pregnancy. The outcome measures were systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and MABP. The end point of the study was the development of preeclampsia. The diagnosis of preeclampsia was made by the attending obstetrician. The data were analyzed using the IBM SPSS statistical software. Statistical significance was set at P blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and MABP values in the group of women who later developed preeclampsia, P = 0.005, 0.001, and area under the receiver-operative characteristics curve (AUC) was 0.732 (95% confidence interval, 0.544-0.919, P = 0.011). The negative predictive value (NPV) was 88.88% and the positive predictive value (PPV) was 45.45%, P AUC of 0.732, MABP performed moderately (considering that excellent performance has an AUC of 1.0) in the prediction of late-onset preeclampsia in Nigerian women. Its high NPV suggests a strong ability to rule out preeclampsia and help to appropriate management.

  3. The value of daily platelet counts for predicting dengue shock syndrome: Results from a prospective observational study of 2301 Vietnamese children with dengue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Phung Khanh; Ngoc, Tran Van; Thu Thuy, Truong Thi; Hong Van, Nguyen Thi; Nhu Thuy, Tran Thi; Hoai Tam, Dong Thi; Dung, Nguyen Minh; Hanh Tien, Nguyen Thi; Thanh Kieu, Nguyen Tan; Simmons, Cameron; Wills, Bridget; Wolbers, Marcel

    2017-04-01

    Dengue is the most important mosquito-borne viral infection to affect humans. Although it usually manifests as a self-limited febrile illness, complications may occur as the fever subsides. A systemic vascular leak syndrome that sometimes progresses to life-threatening hypovolaemic shock is the most serious complication seen in children, typically accompanied by haemoconcentration and thrombocytopenia. Robust evidence on risk factors, especially features present early in the illness course, for progression to dengue shock syndrome (DSS) is lacking. Moreover, the potential value of incorporating serial haematocrit and platelet measurements in prediction models has never been assessed. We analyzed data from a prospective observational study of Vietnamese children aged 5-15 years admitted with clinically suspected dengue to the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Ho Chi Minh City between 2001 and 2009. The analysis population comprised all children with laboratory-confirmed dengue enrolled between days 1-4 of illness. Logistic regression was the main statistical model for all univariate and multivariable analyses. The prognostic value of daily haematocrit levels and platelet counts were assessed using graphs and separate regression models fitted on each day of illness. Among the 2301 children included in the analysis, 143 (6%) progressed to DSS. Significant baseline risk factors for DSS included a history of vomiting, higher temperature, a palpable liver, and a lower platelet count. Prediction models that included serial daily platelet counts demonstrated better ability to discriminate patients who developed DSS from others, than models based on enrolment information only. However inclusion of daily haematocrit values did not improve prediction of DSS. Daily monitoring of platelet counts is important to help identify patients at high risk of DSS. Development of dynamic prediction models that incorporate signs, symptoms, and daily laboratory measurements, could improve

  4. Intrinsic predictive factors for ankle sprain in active university students: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Noronha, M; França, L C; Haupenthal, A; Nunes, G S

    2013-10-01

    The ankle is the joint most affected among the sports-related injuries. The current study investigated whether certain intrinsic factors could predict ankle sprains in active students. The 125 participants were submitted to a baseline assessment in a single session were then followed-up for 52 weeks regarding the occurrence of sprain. The baseline assessment were performed in both ankles and included the questionnaire Cumberland ankle instability tool - Portuguese, the foot lift test, dorsiflexion range of motion, Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT), the side recognition task, body mass index, and history of previous sprain. Two groups were used for analysis: one with those who suffered an ankle sprain and the other with those who did not suffer an ankle sprain. After Cox regression analysis, participants with history of previous sprain were twice as likely to suffer subsequent sprains [hazard ratio (HR) 2.21 and 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-4.57] and people with better performance on the SEBT in the postero-lateral (PL) direction were less likely to suffer a sprain (HR 0.96 and 95% CI 0.92-0.99). History of previous sprain was the strongest predictive factor and a weak performance on SEBT PL was also considered a predictive factor for ankle sprains. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Prospects for development of unified global flood observation and prediction systems (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Floods are among the most damaging of natural hazards, with global flood losses in 2011 alone estimated to have exceeded $100B. Historically, flood economic damages have been highest in the developed world (due in part to encroachment on historical flood plains), but loss of life, and human impacts have been greatest in the developing world. However, as the 2011 Thailand floods show, industrializing countries, many of which do not have well developed flood protection systems, are increasingly vulnerable to economic damages as they become more industrialized. At present, unified global flood observation and prediction systems are in their infancy; notwithstanding that global weather forecasting is a mature field. The summary for this session identifies two evolving capabilities that hold promise for development of more sophisticated global flood forecast systems: global hydrologic models and satellite remote sensing (primarily of precipitation, but also of flood inundation). To this I would add the increasing sophistication and accuracy of global precipitation analysis (and forecast) fields from numerical weather prediction models. In this brief overview, I will review progress in all three areas, and especially the evolution of hydrologic data assimilation which integrates modeling and data sources. I will also comment on inter-governmental and inter-agency cooperation, and related issues that have impeded progress in the development and utilization of global flood observation and prediction systems.

  6. Blinded prospective evaluation of computer-based mechanistic schizophrenia disease model for predicting drug response.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Geerts

    Full Text Available The tremendous advances in understanding the neurobiological circuits involved in schizophrenia have not translated into more effective treatments. An alternative strategy is to use a recently published 'Quantitative Systems Pharmacology' computer-based mechanistic disease model of cortical/subcortical and striatal circuits based upon preclinical physiology, human pathology and pharmacology. The physiology of 27 relevant dopamine, serotonin, acetylcholine, norepinephrine, gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA and glutamate-mediated targets is calibrated using retrospective clinical data on 24 different antipsychotics. The model was challenged to predict quantitatively the clinical outcome in a blinded fashion of two experimental antipsychotic drugs; JNJ37822681, a highly selective low-affinity dopamine D(2 antagonist and ocaperidone, a very high affinity dopamine D(2 antagonist, using only pharmacology and human positron emission tomography (PET imaging data. The model correctly predicted the lower performance of JNJ37822681 on the positive and negative syndrome scale (PANSS total score and the higher extra-pyramidal symptom (EPS liability compared to olanzapine and the relative performance of ocaperidone against olanzapine, but did not predict the absolute PANSS total score outcome and EPS liability for ocaperidone, possibly due to placebo responses and EPS assessment methods. Because of its virtual nature, this modeling approach can support central nervous system research and development by accounting for unique human drug properties, such as human metabolites, exposure, genotypes and off-target effects and can be a helpful tool for drug discovery and development.

  7. Further comprehension of natural gas accumulation, distribution, and prediction prospects in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Li

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In-depth research reveals that the natural gas accumulation and distribution are characterized by cycle, sequence, equilibrium, traceability, and multi-stage. To be specific, every geotectonic cycle represents a gas reservoir forming system where natural gas is generated, migrated, accumulated, and formed into a reservoir in a certain play. Essentially, hydrocarbon accumulation occurs when migration force and resistance reach an equilibrium. In this situation, the closer to the source rock, the higher the accumulation efficiency is. Historically, reservoirs were formed in multiple phases. Moreover, zones in source rocks and adjacent to source rocks, unconformity belts, and faulted anticline belts are favorable areas to finding large gas fields. Apart from the common unconformity belts and faulted anticline belts, in-source and near-source zones should be considered as critical targets for future exploration. Subsequent exploration should focus on Upper Palaeozoic in the southeastern Ordos Basin, Triassic in southwestern Sichuan Basin, Jurassic in the northern section of the Kuqa Depression and other zones where no great breakthroughs have been made. Keywords: Large gas field, Distribution characteristics, Potential zone, Prospect

  8. Does message framing predict willingness to participate in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial: an application of Prospect Theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evangeli, Michael; Kafaar, Zuhayr; Kagee, Ashraf; Swartz, Leslie; Bullemor-Day, Philippa

    2013-01-01

    It is vital that enough participants are willing to participate in clinical trials to test HIV vaccines adequately. It is, therefore, necessary to explore what affects peoples' willingness to participate (WTP) in such trials. Studies have only examined individual factors associated with WTP and not the effect of messages about trial participation on potential participants (e.g., whether losses or gains are emphasized, or whether the outcome is certain or uncertain). This study explores whether the effects of message framing on WTP in a hypothetical HIV vaccine trial are consistent with Prospect Theory. This theory suggests that people are fundamentally risk averse and that (1) under conditions of low risk and high certainty, gain-framed messages will be influential (2) under conditions of high risk and low certainty, loss-framed messages will be influential. This cross-sectional study recruited 283 HIV-negative students from a South African university who were given a questionnaire that contained matched certain gain-framed, certain loss-framed, uncertain gain-framed, and uncertain loss-framed statements based on common barriers and facilitators of WTP. Participants were asked to rate how likely each statement was to result in their participation in a hypothetical preventative HIV vaccine trial. Consistent with Prospect Theory predictions, for certain outcomes, gain-framed messages were more likely to result in WTP than loss-framed messages. Inconsistent with predictions, loss-framed message were not more likely to be related to WTP for uncertain outcomes than gain-framed messages. Older students were less likely to express their WTP across the different message frames. Recruitment for HIV vaccine trials should pay attention to how messages about the trial are presented to potential participants.

  9. Multidimensional assessment of patient condition and mutational analysis in peripheral blood, as tools to improve outcome prediction in myelodysplastic syndromes: A prospective study of the Spanish MDS group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Fernando; Robledo, Cristina; Pereira, Arturo; Pedro, Carmen; Benito, Rocío; de Paz, Raquel; Del Rey, Mónica; Insunza, Andrés; Tormo, Mar; Díez-Campelo, María; Xicoy, Blanca; Salido, Eduardo; Sánchez-Del-Real, Javier; Arenillas, Leonor; Florensa, Lourdes; Luño, Elisa; Del Cañizo, Consuelo; Sanz, Guillermo F; María Hernández-Rivas, Jesús

    2017-09-01

    The International Prognostic Scoring System and its revised form (IPSS-R) are the most widely used indices for prognostic assessment of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS), but can only partially account for the observed variation in patient outcomes. This study aimed to evaluate the relative contribution of patient condition and mutational status in peripheral blood when added to the IPSS-R, for estimating overall survival and the risk of leukemic transformation in patients with MDS. A prospective cohort (2006-2015) of 200 consecutive patients with MDS were included in the study series and categorized according to the IPSS-R. Patients were further stratified according to patient condition (assessed using the multidimensional Lee index for older adults) and genetic mutations (peripheral blood samples screened using next-generation sequencing). The change in likelihood-ratio was tested in Cox models after adding individual covariates. The addition of the Lee index to the IPSS-R significantly improved prediction of overall survival [hazard ratio (HR) 3.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.96-4.66, P < 0.001), and mutational analysis significantly improved prediction of leukemic evolution (HR 2.64, 1.56-4.46, P < 0.001). Non-leukemic death was strongly linked to patient condition (HR 2.71, 1.72-4.25, P < 0.001), but not to IPSS-R score (P = 0.35) or mutational status (P = 0.75). Adjustment for exposure to disease-modifying therapy, evaluated as a time-dependent covariate, had no effect on the proposed model's predictive ability. In conclusion, patient condition, assessed by the multidimensional Lee index and patient mutational status can improve the prediction of clinical outcomes of patients with MDS already stratified by IPSS-R. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. Dichorionic twin ultrasound surveillance: sonography every 4 weeks significantly underperforms sonography every 2 weeks: results of the Prospective Multicenter ESPRiT Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corcoran, Siobhan; Breathnach, Fionnuala; Burke, Gerard; McAuliffe, Fionnuala; Geary, Michael; Daly, Sean; Higgins, John; Hunter, Alyson; Morrison, John J; Higgins, Shane; Mahony, Rhona; Dicker, Patrick; Tully, Elizabeth; Malone, Fergal D

    2015-10-01

    A 2-week ultrasound scanning schedule for monochorionic twins is endorsed widely. There is a lack of robust data to inform a schedule for the surveillance of dichorionic gestations. We aimed to determine how ultrasound scanning that is performed at 2- or 4-week intervals (or every 4 weeks before 32 weeks' gestation and every 2 weeks thereafter) may impact the prenatal detection of fetal growth restriction (FGR) and ultimately influence timing of delivery. In a consecutive cohort of 789 dichorionic twin pregnancies that were recruited prospectively for the multicenter Evaluation of Sonographic Predictors of Restricted Growth in Twins study, ultrasound determination of fetal growth and interrogation of umbilical and middle cerebral artery Doppler scans were performed every 2 weeks from 24 weeks' gestation until delivery. Complete delivery and perinatal outcome data were recorded for all pregnancies. Where delivery was prompted by FGR, abnormal umbilical artery Doppler examination or poor biophysical profile and in the absence of ruptured membranes, onset of labor, preeclampsia, or antepartum hemorrhage, the delivery was considered "ultrasound-indicated." For ultrasound-indicated deliveries, detection probabilities for FGR/abnormal umbilical artery Doppler scans/poor biophysical were determined according to the interval between examinations, by the suppression if alternate examination data. Among 789 dichorionic twin pregnancies, 66 pairs (8%) had an "ultrasound indicated" delivery. Detection of FGR was reduced from 88-69%, and detection of abnormal umbilical artery Doppler was reduced from 82-62% when a 4-week ultrasound schedule was simulated. Both of these reductions reached statistical significance. There was a nonsignificant trend toward a reduction in the recording of oligohydramnios with a 4-week interval between examinations. This study suggests that the ultrasound surveillance program of every 2 weeks that is recommended currently for monochorionic twins

  11. Dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging in predicting progression of enhancing lesions persisting after standard treatment in glioblastoma patients: a prospective study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Roh-Eul; Choi, Hye Jeong; You, Sung-Hye; Kang, Koung Mi; Yun, Tae Jin; Kim, Ji-Hoon; Sohn, Chul-Ho [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Seung Hong [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University, Center for Nanoparticle Research, Institute for Basic Science, and School of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Seoul National University, School of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Tae Min [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, Cancer Research Institute, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Chul-Kee [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Neurosurgery, Biomedical Research Institute, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Sung-Hye; Won, Jae-Kyung [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Pathology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Il Han [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Research Institute, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Soon Tae [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Department of Neurology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-08-15

    To prospectively explore the value of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in predicting the progression of enhancing lesions persisting after standard treatment in patients with surgically resected glioblastoma (GBM). Forty-seven GBM patients, who underwent near-total tumorectomy followed by concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) with temozolomide (TMZ) between May 2014 and February 2016, were enrolled. Twenty-four patients were finally analyzed for measurable enhancing lesions persisting after standard treatment. DCE-MRI parameters were calculated at enhancing lesions. Mann-Whitney U tests and multivariable stepwise logistic regression were used to compare parameters between progression (n = 16) and non-progression (n = 8) groups. Mean K{sup trans} and v{sub e} were significantly lower in progression than in non-progression (P = 0.037 and P = 0.037, respectively). The 5th percentile of the cumulative K{sup trans} histogram was also significantly lower in the progression than in non-progression group (P = 0.017). Mean v{sub e} was the only independent predictor of progression (P = 0.007), with a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 63%, and an overall accuracy of 88% at a cut-off value of 0.873. DCE-MRI may help predict the progression of enhancing lesions persisting after the completion of standard treatment in patients with surgically resected GBM, with mean v{sub e} serving as an independent predictor of progression. (orig.)

  12. Dynamic contrast-enhanced MR imaging in predicting progression of enhancing lesions persisting after standard treatment in glioblastoma patients: a prospective study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, Roh-Eul; Choi, Hye Jeong; You, Sung-Hye; Kang, Koung Mi; Yun, Tae Jin; Kim, Ji-Hoon; Sohn, Chul-Ho; Choi, Seung Hong; Kim, Tae Min; Park, Chul-Kee; Park, Sung-Hye; Won, Jae-Kyung; Kim, Il Han; Lee, Soon Tae

    2017-01-01

    To prospectively explore the value of dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) in predicting the progression of enhancing lesions persisting after standard treatment in patients with surgically resected glioblastoma (GBM). Forty-seven GBM patients, who underwent near-total tumorectomy followed by concurrent chemoradiation therapy (CCRT) with temozolomide (TMZ) between May 2014 and February 2016, were enrolled. Twenty-four patients were finally analyzed for measurable enhancing lesions persisting after standard treatment. DCE-MRI parameters were calculated at enhancing lesions. Mann-Whitney U tests and multivariable stepwise logistic regression were used to compare parameters between progression (n = 16) and non-progression (n = 8) groups. Mean K trans and v e were significantly lower in progression than in non-progression (P = 0.037 and P = 0.037, respectively). The 5th percentile of the cumulative K trans histogram was also significantly lower in the progression than in non-progression group (P = 0.017). Mean v e was the only independent predictor of progression (P = 0.007), with a sensitivity of 100%, specificity of 63%, and an overall accuracy of 88% at a cut-off value of 0.873. DCE-MRI may help predict the progression of enhancing lesions persisting after the completion of standard treatment in patients with surgically resected GBM, with mean v e serving as an independent predictor of progression. (orig.)

  13. Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture. Methods At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11) and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews. Results Seventy-nine (44%) of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (n = 22) suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (n = 10) of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (Χ2 = 8.76, df = 1, p = .003). Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively) during follow-up. Conclusions The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression. PMID:22060677

  14. Depression after low-energy fracture in older women predicts future falls: a prospective observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    van den Berg Martha

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls are one of the main causes of fractures in elderly people and after a recent fracture, the risk of another fall is increased, resulting in subsequent fracture. Therefore, risk factors for future falls should be determined. We prospectively investigated the relationship between depression and the incidence of falls in post-menopausal women after a low-energy fracture. Methods At baseline, 181 women aged 60 years and older who presented with a recent low-energy fracture were evaluated at the fracture and osteoporosis outpatient clinics of two hospitals. As well as clinical evaluation and bone mineral density tests, the presence of depression (measured using the Edinburgh Depression Scale, EDS, depression cut-off > 11 and risk factors for falling were assessed. During two years of follow-up, the incidence of falls was registered annually by means of detailed questionnaires and interviews. Results Seventy-nine (44% of the women sustained at least one fall during follow-up. Of these, 28% (n = 22 suffered from depression at baseline compared to 10% (n = 10 of the 102 women who did not sustain a fall during follow-up (Χ2 = 8.76, df = 1, p = .003. Multiple logistic regression showed that the presence of depression and co-morbidity at baseline were independently related to falls (OR = 4.13, 95% CI = 1.58-10.80; OR = 2.25, 95% CI = 1.11-4.56, respectively during follow-up. Conclusions The presence of depression in women aged 60 years and older with recent low-energy fractures is an important risk factor for future falls. We propose that clinicians treating patients with recent low-energy fractures should anticipate not only on skeletal-related risk factors for fractures, but also on fall-related risk factors including depression.

  15. Fracture predictive ability of physical performance tests and history of falls in elderly women: a 10-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wihlborg, A; Englund, M; Åkesson, K; Gerdhem, P

    2015-08-01

    In a large cohort of elderly women followed for 10 years, we found that balance, gait speed, and self-reported history of fall independently predicted fracture. These clinical risk factors are easily evaluated and therefore advantageous in a clinical setting. They would improve fracture risk assessment and thereby also fracture prevention. The aim of this study was to identify additional risk factors for osteoporosis-related fracture by investigating the fracture predictive ability of physical performance tests and self-reported history of falls. In the population-based Osteoporosis Prospective Risk Assessment study (OPRA), 1044 women were recruited at the age of 75 and followed for 10 years. At inclusion, knee extension force, standing balance, gait speed, and bone mineral density (BMD) were examined. Falls the year before investigation was assessed by questionnaire. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to determine fracture hazard ratios (HR) with BMD, history of fracture, BMI, smoking habits, bisphosphonate, vitamin D, glucocorticoid, and alcohol use as covariates. Continuous variables were standardized and HR shown for each standard deviation change. Of all women, 427 (41%) sustained at least one fracture during the 10-year follow-up. Failing the balance test had an HR of 1.98 (1.18-3.32) for hip fracture. Each standard deviation decrease in gait speed was associated with an HR of 1.37 (1.14-1.64) for hip fracture. Previous fall had an HR of 1.30 (1.03-1.65) for any fracture; 1.39 (1.08-1.79) for any osteoporosis-related fracture; and 1.60 (1.03-2.48) for distal forearm fracture. Knee extension force did not show fracture predictability. The balance test, gait speed test, and self-reported history of fall all hold independent fracture predictability. Consideration of these clinical risk factors for fracture would improve the fracture risk assessment and subsequently also fracture prevention.

  16. A prospective investigation of predictive and modifiable risk factors for breast cancer in unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene carriers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guinan, Emer M; Hussey, Juliette; McGarrigle, Sarah A; Healy, Laura A; O’Sullivan, Jacintha N; Bennett, Kathleen; Connolly, Elizabeth M

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common female cancer worldwide. The lifetime risk of a woman being diagnosed with breast cancer is approximately 12.5%. For women who carry the deleterious mutation in either of the BRCA genes, BRCA1 or BRCA2, the risk of developing breast or ovarian cancer is significantly increased. In recent years there has been increased penetrance of BRCA1 and BRCA2 associated breast cancer, prompting investigation into the role of modifiable risk factors in this group. Previous investigations into this topic have relied on participants recalling lifetime weight changes and subjective methods of recording physical activity. The influence of obesity-related biomarkers, which may explain the link between obesity, physical activity and breast cancer risk, has not been investigated prospectively in this group. This paper describes the design of a prospective cohort study investigating the role of predictive and modifiable risk factors for breast cancer in unaffected BRCA1 and BRCA2 gene mutation carriers. Participants will be recruited from breast cancer family risk clinics and genetics clinics. Lifestyle risk factors that will be investigated will include body composition, metabolic syndrome and its components, physical activity and dietary intake. PBMC telomere length will be measured as a potential predictor of breast cancer occurrence. Measurements will be completed on entry to the study and repeated at two years and five years. Participants will also be followed annually by questionnaire to track changes in risk factor status and to record cancer occurrence. Data will be analysed using multiple regression models. The study has an accrual target of 352 participants. The results from this study will provide valuable information regarding the role of modifiable lifestyle risk factors for breast cancer in women with a deleterious mutation in the BRCA gene. Additionally, the study will attempt to identify potential blood biomarkers which may be predictive

  17. Overgeneral autobiographical memory predicts higher prospective levels of depressive symptoms and intrusions in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Broeck, Kris; Pieters, Guido; Claes, Laurence; Berens, Ann; Raes, Filip

    2016-11-01

    Overgeneral memory (OGM), the tendency to retrieve categories of events from autobiographical memory instead of single events, is found to be a reliable predictor for future mood disturbances and post-traumatic symptom severity. Patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD) often report co-morbid episodes of major depressive disorder (MDD) and post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Therefore, we investigated whether OGM would predict depression severity and (post-traumatic) stress symptoms in BPD patients. At admission (N = 54) and at six-month follow-up (N ≥ 31), BPD patients completed the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV Disorders, the Assessment of DSM-IV Personality Disorders, the Autobiographical Memory Test, the Beck Depression Inventory-2nd edition (BDI-II), and the Impact of Event Scale. OGM at baseline predicted (a) higher levels of depressive symptoms at follow-up and (b) more intrusions related to a stressful event over and above baseline levels of borderline symptoms, depressive symptoms, and intrusions, respectively. No association was found between memory specificity and event-related avoidance at follow-up. Despite previous findings suggesting that OGM in BPD is less robust than in MDD and PTSD, our results suggest that memory specificity in BPD patients may have some relevance for the course of depressive and stress symptomatology in BPD.

  18. Significant Improvement of Puncture Accuracy and Fluoroscopy Reduction in Percutaneous Transforaminal Endoscopic Discectomy With Novel Lumbar Location System: Preliminary Report of Prospective Hello Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Guoxin; Guan, Xiaofei; Zhang, Hailong; Wu, Xinbo; Gu, Xin; Gu, Guangfei; Fan, Yunshan; He, Shisheng

    2015-12-01

    Prospective nonrandomized control study.The study aimed to investigate the implication of the HE's Lumbar LOcation (HELLO) system in improving the puncture accuracy and reducing fluoroscopy in percutaneous transforaminal endoscopic discectomy (PTED).Percutaneous transforaminal endoscopic discectomy is one of the most popular minimally invasive spine surgeries that heavily depend on repeated fluoroscopy. Increased fluoroscopy will induce higher radiation exposure to surgeons and patients. Accurate puncture in PTED can be achieved by accurate preoperative location and definite trajectory.The HELLO system mainly consists of self-made surface locator and puncture-assisted device. The surface locator was used to identify the exact puncture target and the puncture-assisted device was used to optimize the puncture trajectory. Patients who had single L4/5 or L5/S1 lumbar intervertebral disc herniation and underwent PTED were included the study. Patients receiving the HELLO system were assigned in Group A, and those taking conventional method were assigned in Group B. Study primary endpoint was puncture times and fluoroscopic times, and the secondary endpoint was location time and operation time.A total of 62 patients who received PTED were included in this study. The average age was 45.35 ± 8.70 years in Group A and 46.61 ± 7.84 years in Group B (P = 0.552). There were no significant differences in gender, body mass index, conservative time, and surgical segment between the 2 groups (P > 0.05). The puncture times were 1.19 ± 0.48 in Group A and 6.03 ± 1.87 in Group B (P HELLO system is accurate preoperative location and definite trajectory. This preliminary report indicated that the HELLO system significantly improves the puncture accuracy of PTED and reduces the fluoroscopic times, preoperative location time, as well as operation time. (ChiCTR-ICR-15006730).

  19. A prospective cohort study of deficient maternal nurturing attitudes predicting adulthood work stress independent of adulthood hostility and depressive symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hintsanen, M; Kivimäki, M; Hintsa, T; Theorell, T; Elovainio, M; Raitakari, O T; Viikari, J S A; Keltikangas-Järvinen, L

    2010-09-01

    Stressful childhood environments arising from deficient nurturing attitudes are hypothesized to contribute to later stress vulnerability. We examined whether deficient nurturing attitudes predict adulthood work stress. Participants were 443 women and 380 men from the prospective Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study. Work stress was assessed as job strain and effort-reward imbalance in 2001 when the participants were from 24 to 39 years old. Deficient maternal nurturance (intolerance and low emotional warmth) was assessed based on mothers' reports when the participants were at the age of 3-18 years and again at the age of 6-21 years. Linear regressions showed that deficient emotional warmth in childhood predicted lower adulthood job control and higher job strain. These associations were not explained by age, gender, socioeconomic circumstances, maternal mental problems or participant hostility, and depressive symptoms. Deficient nurturing attitudes in childhood might affect sensitivity to work stress and selection into stressful work conditions in adulthood. More attention should be paid to pre-employment factors in work stress research.

  20. Stress, cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones: Prospective prediction of 6-month changes in food cravings and weight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Ariana M.; Jastreboff, Ania M.; White, Marney A.; Grilo, Carlos M.; Sinha, Rajita

    2017-01-01

    Objective To examine whether baseline chronic stress, morning cortisol, and other appetite-related hormones (leptin, ghrelin, and insulin) predict future weight gain and food cravings in a naturalistic longitudinal 6-month follow-up study. Methods A prospective community cohort of three hundred and thirty-nine adults (age=29.1± 9.0 years; BMI=26.7±5.4 kg/m2; 56.9% female; 70.2% White) completed assessments at baseline and 6-month follow-up. Fasting blood draws were used to assess cortisol and other appetite-related hormones levels at baseline. At baseline and follow-up, body weight was measured and the Cumulative Adversity Interview and Food Craving Inventory were administered. Data were analyzed using linear mixed models adjusting for demographic and clinical covariates. Results Over the 6-month period, 49.9% of the sample gained weight. Food cravings and chronic stress decreased over 6 months (psfood cravings at 6 months (p=0.04). Furthermore, higher cortisol, insulin, and chronic stress were each predictive of greater future weight gain (psfood cravings and reward-driven eating behaviors. Studies are needed that examine the utility of stress reduction methods for normalizing disrupted cortisol responses and preventing future weight gain. PMID:28349668

  1. A prospective investigation of rumination and executive control in predicting overgeneral autobiographical memory in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Tracy M; Hunter, Simon C; Rhodes, Sinéad M

    2018-04-01

    The CaR-FA-X model (Williams et al., 2007), or capture and rumination (CaR), functional avoidance (FA), and impaired executive control (X), is a model of overgeneral autobiographical memory (OGM). Two mechanisms of the model, rumination and executive control, were examined in isolation and in interaction in order to investigate OGM over time. Across two time points, six months apart, a total of 149 adolescents (13-16 years) completed the minimal-instruction autobiographical memory test, a measure of executive control with both emotional and nonemotional stimuli, and measures of brooding rumination and reflective pondering. The results showed that executive control for emotional information was negatively associated with OGM, but only when reflective pondering levels were high. Therefore, in the context of higher levels of reflective pondering, greater switch costs (i.e., lower executive control) when processing emotional information predicted a decrease in OGM over time.

  2. Does personality predict mortality? Results from the GAZEL French prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nabi, Hermann; Kivimäki, Mika; Zins, Marie; Elovainio, Marko; Consoli, Silla M; Cordier, Sylvaine; Ducimetière, Pierre; Goldberg, Marcel; Singh-Manoux, Archana

    2008-04-01

    Majority of studies on personality and physical health have focused on one or two isolated personality traits. We aim to test the independent association of 10 personality traits, from three major conceptual models, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the French GAZEL cohort. A total of 14,445 participants, aged 39-54 in 1993, completed the personality questionnaires composed of the Bortner Type-A scale, the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory (for total, neurotic and reactive hostility) and the Grossarth-Maticek-Eysenck Personality Stress Inventory that assesses six personality types [cancer-prone, coronary heart disease (CHD)-prone, ambivalent, healthy, rational, anti-social]. The association between personality traits and mortality, during a mean follow-up of 12.7 years, was assessed using the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in Cox regression. In models adjusted for age, sex, marital status and education, all-cause and cause-specific mortality were predicted by 'total hostility', its 'neurotic hostility' component as well as by 'CHD-prone', 'ambivalent' 'antisocial', and 'healthy' personality types. After mutually adjusting personality traits for each other, only high 'neurotic hostility' remained a robust predictor of excess mortality from all causes [RII = 2.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.68-4.09] and external causes (RII = 3.24; 95% CI = 1.03-10.18). 'CHD-prone' (RII = 2.23; 95% CI = 0.72-6.95) and 'anti-social' (RII = 2.13; 95% CI 0.61-6.58) personality types were associated with cardiovascular mortality and with mortality from external causes, respectively, but CIs were wider. Adjustment for potential behavioural mediators had only a modest effect on these associations. Neurotic hostility, CHD-prone personality and anti-social personality were all predictive of mortality outcomes. Further research is required to determine the precise mechanisms that contribute to these associations.

  3. The predictive value of treatment response using FDG PET performed on day 21 of chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. A prospective, multicentre study (RTEP3)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palie, Odre; Vera, Pierre; Michel, Pierre; Di Fiore, Frederic; Menard, Jean-Francois; Rousseau, Caroline; Bridji, Boumediene; Rio, Emmanuel; Benyoucef, Ahmed; Meyer, Marc-Etienne; Jalali, Khadija; Bardet, Stephane; M'Vondo, Che Mabubu; Olivier, Pierre; Faure, Guillaume; Itti, Emmanuel; Diana, Christian; Houzard, Claire; Mornex, Francoise

    2013-01-01

    FDG PET has been suggested to have predictive value in the prognosis of oesophageal carcinoma. However, the retrospective studies reported in the literature have shown discordant results. Additionally, only four studies have evaluated FDG PET during chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with different histological lesions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of FDG PET performed early during CRT (on day 21) in a population of patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Included in this prospective study were 57 patients with a histological diagnosis of squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus. Of these 57 patients, 48 (84 %) were evaluated (aged 63 ± 11 years; 44 men, 4 women). Each patient underwent FDG PET (4.5 MBq/kg) before CRT, according to the Herskovic protocol (t0; PET 1 ) and on day 21 ± 3 from the start of CRT (d21; PET 2 ). The response assessment included a clinical examination, CT scan or FDG PET and histological analysis 3 months and 1 year after PET 1 . The patients were classified as showing a complete response (CR) or a noncomplete response. A quantitative analysis was carried out for PET 1 and PET 2 using the following parameters: SUVmax, SUVmean (with SUVmean 40 as the 3-D volume at an SUVmax threshold of 40 % and SUVmean p as that defined by a physician), tumour volume (TV, with TV 40 defined as the TV at 40 % of SUVmax, and TV p as that defined by a physician); and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG, SUVmean x TV, with TLG 40 defined as the TLG at 40 % of SUVmax, and TLG p as that defined by a physician). The differences in responses at 3 months and 1 year between PET 1 (t0) and PET 2 (d21) were assessed in terms of variations in SUV, TV and TLG using a repeated measures of variance (ANOVA). SUVmax, SUVmean and TLG decreased significantly between PET 1 (t0) and PET 2 (d21; p p (p = 0.02); TV 40 did not decrease significantly. With respect to the predictive value of PET 1 , only TV 40 1 and TV p 1 values, and

  4. Eradicating BVD, reviewing Irish programme data and model predictions to support prospective decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thulke, H-H; Lange, M; Tratalos, J A; Clegg, T A; McGrath, G; O'Grady, L; O'Sullivan, P; Doherty, M L; Graham, D A; More, S J

    2018-02-01

    Bovine Viral Diarrhoea is an infectious production disease of major importance in many cattle sectors of the world. The infection is predominantly transmitted by animal contact. Postnatal infections are transient, leading to immunologically protected cattle. However, for a certain window of pregnancy, in utero infection of the foetus results in persistently infected (PI) calves being the major risk of BVD spread, but also an efficient target for controlling the infection. There are two acknowledged strategies to identify PI animals for removal: tissue tag testing (direct; also known as the Swiss model) and serological screening (indirect by interpreting the serological status of the herd; the Scandinavian model). Both strategies are effective in reducing PI prevalence and herd incidence. During the first four years of the Irish national BVD eradication programme (2013-16), it has been mandatory for all newborn calves to be tested using tissue tag testing. During this period, PI incidence has substantially declined. In recent times, there has been interest among stakeholders in a change to an indirect testing strategy, with potential benefit to the overall programme, particularly with respect to cost to farmers. Advice was sought on the usefulness of implementing the necessary changes. Here we review available data from the national eradication programme and strategy performance predictions from an expert system model to quantify expected benefits of the strategy change from strategic, budgetary and implementation points of view. Key findings from our work include (i) drawbacks associated with changes to programme implementation, in particular the loss of epidemiological information to allow real-time monitoring of eradication progress or to reliably predict time to eradication, (ii) the fact that only 25% of the herds in the Irish cattle sector (14% beef, 78% dairy herds) would benefit financially from a change to serosurveillance, with half of these participants

  5. Emergence of depression following job loss prospectively predicts lower rates of reemployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stolove, Catherine A; Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R; Bonanno, George A

    2017-07-01

    Job loss has been associated with the emergence of depression and subsequent long-term diminished labor market participation. In a sample of 500 adults who lost their jobs, trajectories of depression severity from four years before to four years after job loss were identified using Latent Growth Mixture Modeling. Rates of unemployment by trajectory were compared at two and four years following job loss. Four trajectories demonstrated optimal model fit including resilience (72%), chronic pre-to-post job loss depression (9%), emergent depression (10%), and remitting depression (9%). Logistic regression comparing reemployment status by class while controlling for age, gender, and education at two-years post job loss revealed no significant differences by class. An identical logistic regression on four-year reemployment revealed significant differences by class with post-hoc analyses revealing emergent depression resulting in a 33.3% reemployment rate compared to resilient individuals (60.4%) together indicating that depression affects reemployment rather than lack of reemployment causing the emergence of depression. The emergence of depression following job loss significantly increases the risk of continued unemployment. However, observed high rates of resilience with resulting downstream benefits in reemployment mitigates significant concern about the effects of wide spread unemployment on ongoing global economic recovery following the Great Recession. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Allergy tests do not predict food triggers in adult patients with eosinophilic oesophagitis. A comprehensive prospective study using five modalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Philpott, H; Nandurkar, S; Royce, S G; Thien, F; Gibson, P R

    2016-08-01

    The use of allergy tests to guide dietary treatment for eosinophilic oesophagitis (EoE) is controversial and data are limited. Aeroallergen sensitisation patterns and food triggers have been defined in Northern Hemisphere cohorts only. To determine if allergy tests that are routinely available can predict food triggers in adult patients with EoE. To define the food triggers and aeroallergen sensitisation patterns in a novel Southern Hemisphere (Australian) cohort of patients. Consecutive patients with EoE who elected to undergo dietary therapy were prospectively assessed, demographic details and atopic characteristics recorded, and allergy tests, comprising skin-prick and skin-patch tests, serum allergen-specific IgE, basophil activation test and serum food-specific IgG, were performed. Patients underwent a six-food elimination diet with a structured algorithm that included endoscopic and histological examination of the oesophagus a minimum of 2 weeks after each challenge. Response was defined as Foods defined as triggers were considered as gold standard and were compared with those identified by allergy testing. No allergy test could accurately predict actual food triggers. Concordance among skin-prick and serum allergen-specific IgE was high for aeroallergens only. Among seasonal aeroallergens, rye-grass sensitisation was predominant. Food triggers were commonly wheat, milk and egg, alone or in combination. None of the currently-available allergy tests predicts food triggers for EoE. Exclusion-rechallenge methodology with oesophageal histological assessment remains the only effective investigation. The same food triggers were identified in this southern hemisphere cohort as previously described. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Minimotif Miner 3.0: database expansion and significantly improved reduction of false-positive predictions from consensus sequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Tian; Merlin, Jerlin Camilus; Deverasetty, Sandeep; Gryk, Michael R; Bill, Travis J; Brooks, Andrew W; Lee, Logan Y; Rathnayake, Viraj; Ross, Christian A; Sargeant, David P; Strong, Christy L; Watts, Paula; Rajasekaran, Sanguthevar; Schiller, Martin R

    2012-01-01

    Minimotif Miner (MnM available at http://minimotifminer.org or http://mnm.engr.uconn.edu) is an online database for identifying new minimotifs in protein queries. Minimotifs are short contiguous peptide sequences that have a known function in at least one protein. Here we report the third release of the MnM database which has now grown 60-fold to approximately 300,000 minimotifs. Since short minimotifs are by their nature not very complex we also summarize a new set of false-positive filters and linear regression scoring that vastly enhance minimotif prediction accuracy on a test data set. This online database can be used to predict new functions in proteins and causes of disease.

  8. Blood biomarkers are helpful in the prediction of response to chemoradiation in rectal cancer: A prospective, hypothesis driven study on patients with locally advanced rectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buijsen, Jeroen; Stiphout, Ruud G. van; Menheere, Paul P.C.A.; Lammering, Guido; Lambin, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Purpose/objective: Chemoradiation (CRT) has been shown to lead to downsizing of an important portion of rectal cancers. In order to tailor treatment at an earlier stage during treatment, predictive models are being developed. Adding blood biomarkers may be attractive for prediction, as they can be collected very easily and determined with excellent reproducibility in clinical practice. The hypothesis of this study was that blood biomarkers related to tumor load, hypoxia and inflammation can help to predict response to CRT in rectal cancer. Material/methods: 295 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who were planned to undergo CRT were prospectively entered into a biobank protocol ( (NCT01067872)). Blood samples were drawn before start of CRT. Nine biomarkers were selected, based on a previously defined hypothesis, and measured in a standardized way by a certified lab: CEA, CA19-9, LDH, CRP, IL-6, IL-8, CA IX, osteopontin and 25-OH-vitamin D. Outcome was analyzed in two ways: pCR vs. non-pCR and responders (defined as ypT0-2N0) vs. non-responders (all other ypTN stages). Results: 276 patients could be analyzed. 20.7% developed a pCR and 47.1% were classified as responders. In univariate analysis CEA (p = 0.001) and osteopontin (p = 0.012) were significant predictors for pCR. Taking response as outcome CEA (p < 0.001), IL-8 (p < 0.001) and osteopontin (p = 0.004) were significant predictors. In multivariate analysis CEA was the strongest predictor for pCR (OR 0.92, p = 0.019) and CEA and IL-8 predicted for response (OR 0.97, p = 0.029 and OR 0.94, p = 0.036). The model based on biomarkers only had an AUC of 0.65 for pCR and 0.68 for response; the strongest model included clinical data, PET-data and biomarkers and had an AUC of 0.81 for pCR and 0.78 for response. Conclusion: CEA and IL-8 were identified as predictive biomarkers for tumor response and PCR after CRT in rectal cancer. Incorporation of these blood biomarkers leads to an additional accuracy of

  9. Usefulness of Coronary Atheroma Burden to Predict Cardiovascular Events in Patients Presenting With Acute Coronary Syndromes (from the PROSPECT Study).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shan, Peiren; Mintz, Gary S; McPherson, John A; De Bruyne, Bernard; Farhat, Naim Z; Marso, Steven P; Serruys, Patrick W; Stone, Gregg W; Maehara, Akiko

    2015-12-01

    We investigated the relation between overall atheroma burden and clinical events in the Providing Regional Observations to Study Predictors of Events in the Coronary Tree (PROSPECT) study. In PROSPECT, 660 patients (3,229 nonculprit lesions with a plaque burden ≥ 40% and complete intravascular ultrasound data) were divided into tertiles according to baseline percent atheroma volume (PAV: total plaque/vessel volume). Patients were followed for 3.4 years (median); major adverse cardiac events (MACE: death from cardiac causes, cardiac arrest, myocardial infarction, or rehospitalization because of unstable or progressive angina) were adjudicated to either culprit or nonculprit lesions. Compared with patients in low or intermediate PAV tertiles, patients in the high PAV tertile had the greatest prevalence of plaque rupture and radiofrequency thin-cap fibroatheroma (VH-TCFA) and the highest percentage of necrotic core volume; they were also more likely to have high-risk lesion characteristics: ≥ 1 lesion with minimal luminal area ≤ 4 mm(2), plaque burden >70%, and/or VH-TCFA. Three-year cumulative nonculprit lesion-related MACE was greater in the intermediate and high tertiles than in the low tertile (6.3% vs 14.7% vs 15.1%, low vs intermediate vs high tertiles, p = 0.009). On Cox multivariable analysis, insulin-dependent diabetes (hazard ratio [HR] 3.98, p = 0.002), PAV (HR 1.06, p = 0.03), and the presence of ≥1 VH-TCFA (HR 1.80, p = 0.02) were independent predictors of nonculprit MACE. In conclusion, increasing baseline overall atheroma burden was associated with more advanced, complex, and vulnerable intravascular ultrasound lesion morphology and independently predicted nonculprit lesion-related MACE in patients with acute coronary syndromes after successful culprit lesion intervention. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Nerve Ultrasound Predicts Treatment Response in Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyradiculoneuropathy-a Prospective Follow-Up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Härtig, Florian; Ross, Marlene; Dammeier, Nele Maria; Fedtke, Nadin; Heiling, Bianka; Axer, Hubertus; Décard, Bernhard F; Auffenberg, Eva; Koch, Marilin; Rattay, Tim W; Krumbholz, Markus; Bornemann, Antje; Lerche, Holger; Winter, Natalie; Grimm, Alexander

    2018-04-01

    As reliable biomarkers of disease activity are lacking, monitoring of therapeutic response in chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyradiculoneuropathy (CIDP) remains a challenge. We sought to determine whether nerve ultrasound and electrophysiology scoring could close this gap. In CIDP patients (fulfilling EFNS/PNS criteria), we performed high-resolution nerve ultrasound to determine ultrasound pattern sum scores (UPSS) and predominant echotexture nerve conduction study scores (NCSS) as well as Medical Research Council sum scores (MRCSS) and inflammatory neuropathy cause and treatment disability scores (INCAT) at baseline and after 12 months of standard treatment. We retrospectively correlated ultrasound morphology with nerve histology when available. 72/80 CIDP patients featured multifocal nerve enlargement, and 35/80 were therapy-naïve. At baseline, clinical scores correlated with NCSS (r 2  = 0.397 and r 2  = 0.443, p  50% of measured segments, possibly reflecting axonal degeneration; and 3) almost no enlargement, reflecting "burned-out" or "cured" disease without active inflammation. Clinical improvement after 12 months was best in patients with pattern 1 (up to 75% vs up to 43% in pattern 2/3, Fisher's exact test p < 0.05). Nerve ultrasound has additional value not only for diagnosis, but also for classification of disease state and may predict treatment response.

  11. Preoperative prediction of lymph node metastasis and deep stromal invasion in women with invasive cervical cancer: prospective multicenter study using 2D and 3D ultrasound.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pálsdóttir, K; Fischerova, D; Franchi, D; Testa, A; Di Legge, A; Epstein, E

    2015-04-01

    To determine how various objective two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) ultrasound parameters allow prediction of deep stromal tumor invasion and lymph node involvement, in comparison to subjective ultrasound assessment, in women scheduled for surgery for cervical cancer. This was a prospective multicenter trial including 104 women with cervical cancer at FIGO Stages IA2-IIB, verified histologically. Patients scheduled for surgery underwent a preoperative ultrasound examination. The value of various 2D (size, color score) and 3D (volume, vascular indices) ultrasound parameters was compared to that of subjective assessment in the prediction of deep stromal tumor invasion and lymph node involvement. Histology obtained from radical hysterectomy or trachelectomy and pelvic lymphadenectomy was considered as the gold standard for assessment. All women underwent pelvic lymphadenectomy, with 99 (95%) undergoing subsequent radical surgery; five underwent only pelvic lymphadenectomy because of the presence of a positive sentinel lymph node. Women with deep stromal invasion or lymph node involvement had significantly larger tumors (diameter and volume) but there was no correlation with vascular indices measured on 3D ultrasound. Subjective evaluation was superior (AUC, 0.93; sensitivity, 90.5%; specificity, 97.2%) in the prediction of deep stromal invasion when compared to any objective measurement technique, with maximal tumor diameter at 20.5-mm cut-off (AUC, 0.83; sensitivity, 90.5%; specificity, 61.1%) and 3D tumor volume at 9.1-mm(3) cut-off (AUC, 0.85; sensitivity, 79.4%; specificity, 83.3%) providing the best performance among the objective parameters. Both subjective assessment and objective measurements were poorly predictive of lymph node involvement. In women with cervical cancer, subjective ultrasound evaluation allowed better prediction of deep stromal invasion than did objective measurements; however, neither subjective evaluation nor objective

  12. Within-person Changes in Individual Symptoms of Depression Predict Subsequent Depressive Episodes in Adolescents: A Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouros, Chrystyna D.; Morris, Matthew C.; Garber, Judy

    2015-01-01

    The current longitudinal study examined which individual symptoms of depression uniquely predicted a subsequent Major Depressive Episode (MDE) in adolescents, and whether these relations differed by sex. Adolescents (N=240) were first interviewed in grade 6 (M=11.86 years old; SD = 0.56; 54% female; 81.5% Caucasian) and then annually through grade 12 regarding their individual symptoms of depression as well as the occurrence of MDEs. Individual symptoms of depression were assessed with the Children’s Depression Rating Scale-Revised (CDRS-R) and depressive episodes were assessed with the Longitudinal Interval Follow-up Evaluation (LIFE). Results showed that within-person changes in sleep problems and low self-esteem/excessive guilt positively predicted an increased likelihood of an MDE for both boys and girls. Significant sex differences also were found. Within-person changes in anhedonia predicted an increased likelihood of a subsequent MDE among boys, whereas irritability predicted a decreased likelihood of a future MDE among boys, and concentration difficulties predicted a decreased likelihood of an MDE in girls. These results identified individual depressive symptoms that predicted subsequent depressive episodes in male and female adolescents, and may be used to guide the early detection, treatment, and prevention of depressive disorders in youth. PMID:26105209

  13. A prediction score for significant coronary artery disease in Chinese patients ≥50 years old referred for rheumatic valvular heart disease surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zhenjun; Pan, Jun; Chen, Tao; Zhou, Qing; Wang, Qiang; Cao, Hailong; Fan, Fudong; Luo, Xuan; Ge, Min; Wang, Dongjin

    2018-04-01

    Our goal was to establish a prediction score and protocol for the preoperative prediction of significant coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with rheumatic valvular heart disease. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, we validated the model based on 490 patients without a history of myocardial infarction and who underwent preoperative screening coronary angiography. Significant CAD was defined as ≥50% narrowing of the diameter of the lumen of the left main coronary artery or ≥70% narrowing of the diameter of the lumen of the left anterior descending coronary artery, left circumflex artery or right coronary artery. Significant CAD was present in 9.8% of patients. Age, smoking, diabetes mellitus, diastolic blood pressure, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and ischaemia evident on an electrocardiogram were independently associated with significant CAD and were entered into the multivariate model. According to the logistic regression predictive risk score, preoperative coronary angiography is recommended in (i) postmenopausal women between 50 and 59 years of age with ≥9.1% logistic regression predictive risk score; (ii) postmenopausal women who are ≥60 years old with a logistic regression predictive risk score ≥6.6% and (iii) men ≥50 years old whose logistic regression predictive risk score was ≥2.8%. Based on this predictive model, 246 (50.2%) preoperative coronary angiograms could be safely avoided. The negative predictive value of the model was 98.8% (246 of 249). This model was accurate for the preoperative prediction of significant CAD in patients with rheumatic valvular heart disease. This model must be validated in larger cohorts and various populations.

  14. Serum bone alkaline phosphatase and calcaneus bone density predict fractures: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, P D; Kress, B C; Parson, R E; Wasnich, R D; Armour, K A; Mizrahi, I A

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the ability of serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase (bone ALP), creatinine-corrected urinary collagen crosslinks (CTx) and calcaneus bone mineral density (BMD) to identify postmenopausal women who have an increased risk of osteoporotic fractures. Calcaneus BMD and biochemical markers of bone turnover (serum bone ALP and urinary CTx) were measured in 512 community-dwelling postmenopausal women (mean age at baseline 69 years) participating in the Hawaii Osteoporosis Study. New spine and nonspine fractures subsequent to the BMD and biochemical bone markers measurements were recorded over an average of 2.7 years. Lateral spinal radiographs were used to identify spine fractures. Nonspine fractures were identified by self-report at the time of each examination. During the 2.7-year follow-up, at least one osteoporotic fracture occurred in 55 (10.7%) of the 512 women. Mean baseline serum bone ALP and urinary CTx were significantly higher among women who experienced an osteoporotic fracture compared with those women who did not fracture. In separate age-adjusted logistic regression models, serum bone ALP, urinary CTx and calcaneus BMD were each significantly associated with new fractures (odds ratios of 1.53, 1.54 and 1.61 per SD, respectively). Multiple variable logistic regression analysis identified BMD and serum bone ALP as significant predictors of fracture (p = 0.002 and 0.017, respectively). The results from this investigation indicate that increased bone turnover is significantly associated with an increased risk of osteoporotic fracture in postmenopausal women. This association is similar in magnitude and independent of that observed for BMD.

  15. Prospect of Using Numerical Dynamo Model for Prediction of Geomagnetic Secular Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuang, Weijia; Tangborn, Andrew

    2003-01-01

    Modeling of the Earth's core has reached a level of maturity to where the incorporation of observations into the simulations through data assimilation has become feasible. Data assimilation is a method by which observations of a system are combined with a model output (or forecast) to obtain a best guess of the state of the system, called the analysis. The analysis is then used as an initial condition for the next forecast. By doing assimilation, not only we shall be able to predict partially secular variation of the core field, we could also use observations to further our understanding of dynamical states in the Earth's core. One of the first steps in the development of an assimilation system is a comparison between the observations and the model solution. The highly turbulent nature of core dynamics, along with the absence of any regular external forcing and constraint (which occurs in atmospheric dynamics, for example) means that short time comparisons (approx. 1000 years) cannot be made between model and observations. In order to make sensible comparisons, a direct insertion assimilation method has been implemented. In this approach, magnetic field observations at the Earth's surface have been substituted into the numerical model, such that the ratio of the multiple components and the dipole component from observation is adjusted at the core-mantle boundary and extended to the interior of the core, while the total magnetic energy remains unchanged. This adjusted magnetic field is then used as the initial field for a new simulation. In this way, a time tugged simulation is created which can then be compared directly with observations. We present numerical solutions with and without data insertion and discuss their implications for the development of a more rigorous assimilation system.

  16. Prospective prediction of children's smoking transitions: role of parents' and older siblings' smoking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricker, Jonathan B; Peterson, Arthur V; Leroux, Brian G; Andersen, M Robyn; Rajan, K Bharat; Sarason, Irwin G

    2006-01-01

    To use a novel social epidemic probability model to investigate longitudinally the extent to which parents' and older siblings' smoking predict children's smoking transitions. Parents' and older siblings' smoking status was assessed when children were in 3rd grade (baseline). Three smoking transitions were assessed over the period of child/adolescent smoking acquisition (up to 12th grade): (1) transition from never smoking to trying smoking, (2) transition from trying to monthly smoking and (3) transition from monthly to daily smoking. Forty Washington State school districts participating in the long term Hutchinson Smoking Prevention Project (HSPP). Participants were the 5520 families for whom data on both parents' and older siblings' baseline smoking status, as well as on children's smoking transitions, were available. The probability that a smoking parent influenced their child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 32% (95% CI: 27%, 36%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 15% (95% CI: 10%, 19%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 28% (95% CI: 21%, 34%). The probability that an older sibling influenced a child to make the first transition to trying smoking was 29% (95% CI: 17%, 39%); to make the second transition from trying to monthly smoking, 0% (95% CI: 0%, 8%); and to make the third transition from monthly to daily smoking, 20% (95% CI: 4%, 33%). In contrast to previous research, the results provide new evidence suggesting that family smoking influences both initiation and escalation of children's smoking. Results also quantify, in terms of probabilities, the importance of parents' and older siblings' smoking on children's three major smoking transitions. Parents' smoking, as well as older siblings' smoking, are important behaviors to target in preventing adolescents from making smoking transitions.

  17. Evaluation of recruitment and selection for specialty training in public health: interim results of a prospective cohort study to measure the predictive validity of the selection process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pashayan, Nora; Gray, Selena; Duff, Celia; Parkes, Julie; Williams, David; Patterson, Fiona; Koczwara, Anna; Fisher, Grant; Mason, Brendan W

    2016-06-01

    The recruitment process for public health specialty training includes an assessment centre (AC) with three components, Rust Advanced Numerical Reasoning Appraisal (RANRA), Watson-Glaser Critical Thinking Appraisal (WGCT) and a Situation Judgement Test (SJT), which determines invitation to a selection centre (SC). The scores are combined into a total recruitment (TR) score that determines the offers of appointment. A prospective cohort study using anonymous record linkage to investigate the association between applicant's scores in the recruitment process and registrar's progress through training measured by results of Membership Faculty Public Health (MFPH) examinations and outcomes of the Annual Review of Competence Progression (ARCP). Higher scores in RANRA, WGCT, AC, SC and TR were all significantly associated with higher adjusted odds of passing Part A MFPH exam at the first attempt. Higher scores in AC, SC and TR were significantly associated with passing Part B exam at the first attempt. Higher scores in SJT, AC and SC were significantly associated with satisfactory ARCP outcomes. The current UK national recruitment and selection process for public health specialty training has good predictive validity. The individual components of the process are testing different skills and abilities and together they are providing additive value. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. The Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System predicts clinical outcomes in acute pancreatitis: findings from a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buxbaum, James; Quezada, Michael; Chong, Bradford; Gupta, Nikhil; Yu, Chung Yao; Lane, Christianne; Da, Ben; Leung, Kenneth; Shulman, Ira; Pandol, Stephen; Wu, Bechien

    2018-03-15

    The Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) has been derived by an international group of experts via a modified Delphi process. Our aim was to perform an external validation study to assess for concordance of the PASS score with high face validity clinical outcomes and determine specific meaningful thresholds to assist in application of this scoring system in a large prospectively ascertained cohort. We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients admitted to the Los Angeles County Hospital between March 2015 and March 2017. Patients were identified using an emergency department paging system and electronic alert system. Comprehensive characterization included substance use history, pancreatitis etiology, biochemical profile, and detailed clinical course. We calculated the PASS score at admission, discharge, and at 12 h increments during the hospitalization. We performed several analyses to assess the relationship between the PASS score and outcomes at various points during hospitalization as well as following discharge. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we assessed the relationship between admission PASS score and risk of severe pancreatitis. PASS score performance was compared to established systems used to predict severe pancreatitis. Additional inpatient outcomes assessed included local complications, length of stay, development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We also assessed whether the PASS score at discharge was associated with early readmission (re-hospitalization for pancreatitis symptoms and complications within 30 days of discharge). A total of 439 patients were enrolled, their mean age was 42 (±15) years, and 53% were male. Admission PASS score >140 was associated with moderately severe and severe pancreatitis (OR 3.5 [95% CI 2.0, 6.3]), ICU admission (OR 4.9 [2.5, 9.4]), local complications (3.0 [1.6, 5.7]), and development of SIRS (OR 2.9 [1

  19. Addendum to the article: Misuse of null hypothesis significance testing: Would estimation of positive and negative predictive values improve certainty of chemical risk assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bundschuh, Mirco; Newman, Michael C; Zubrod, Jochen P; Seitz, Frank; Rosenfeldt, Ricki R; Schulz, Ralf

    2015-03-01

    We argued recently that the positive predictive value (PPV) and the negative predictive value (NPV) are valuable metrics to include during null hypothesis significance testing: They inform the researcher about the probability of statistically significant and non-significant test outcomes actually being true. Although commonly misunderstood, a reported p value estimates only the probability of obtaining the results or more extreme results if the null hypothesis of no effect was true. Calculations of the more informative PPV and NPV require a priori estimate of the probability (R). The present document discusses challenges of estimating R.

  20. Prediction of cesarean delivery in the term nulliparous woman: results from the prospective, multicenter Genesis study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, Naomi; Burke, Gerard; Breathnach, Fionnuala; McAuliffe, Fionnuala; Morrison, John J; Turner, Michael; Dornan, Samina; Higgins, John R; Cotter, Amanda; Geary, Michael; McParland, Peter; Daly, Sean; Cody, Fiona; Dicker, Pat; Tully, Elizabeth; Malone, Fergal D

    2017-06-01

    In contemporary practice many nulliparous women require intervention during childbirth such as operative vaginal delivery or cesarean delivery (CD). Despite the knowledge that the increasing rate of CD is associated with increasing maternal age, obesity and larger infant birthweight, we lack a reliable method to predict the requirement for such potentially hazardous obstetric procedures during labor and delivery. This issue is important, as there are greater rates of morbidity and mortality associated with unplanned CD performed in labor compared with scheduled CDs. A prediction algorithm to identify women at risk of an unplanned CD could help reduced labor associated morbidity. In this primary analysis of the Genesis study, our objective was to prospectively assess the use of prenatally determined, maternal and fetal, anthropomorphic, clinical, and ultrasound features to develop a predictive tool for unplanned CD in the term nulliparous woman, before the onset of labor. The Genesis study recruited 2336 nulliparous women with a vertex presentation between 39+0 and 40+6 weeks' gestation in a prospective multicenter national study to examine predictors of CD. At recruitment, a detailed clinical evaluation and ultrasound assessment were performed. To reduce bias from knowledge of these data potentially influencing mode of delivery, women, midwives, and obstetricians were blinded to the ultrasound data. All hypothetical prenatal risk factors for unplanned CD were assessed as a composite. Multiple logistic regression analysis and mathematical modeling was used to develop a risk evaluation tool for CD in nulliparous women. Continuous predictors were standardized using z scores. From a total enrolled cohort of 2336 nulliparous participants, 491 (21%) had an unplanned CD. Five parameters were determined to be the best combined predictors of CD. These were advancing maternal age (odds ratio [OR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.09 to 1.34), shorter maternal height (OR

  1. Attribution of Large-Scale Climate Patterns to Seasonal Peak-Flow and Prospects for Prediction Globally

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Donghoon; Ward, Philip; Block, Paul

    2018-02-01

    Flood-related fatalities and impacts on society surpass those from all other natural disasters globally. While the inclusion of large-scale climate drivers in streamflow (or high-flow) prediction has been widely studied, an explicit link to global-scale long-lead prediction is lacking, which can lead to an improved understanding of potential flood propensity. Here we attribute seasonal peak-flow to large-scale climate patterns, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), using streamflow station observations and simulations from PCR-GLOBWB, a global-scale hydrologic model. Statistically significantly correlated climate patterns and streamflow autocorrelation are subsequently applied as predictors to build a global-scale season-ahead prediction model, with prediction performance evaluated by the mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and the categorical Gerrity skill score (GSS). Globally, fair-to-good prediction skill (20% ≤ MSESS and 0.2 ≤ GSS) is evident for a number of locations (28% of stations and 29% of land area), most notably in data-poor regions (e.g., West and Central Africa). The persistence of such relevant climate patterns can improve understanding of the propensity for floods at the seasonal scale. The prediction approach developed here lays the groundwork for further improving local-scale seasonal peak-flow prediction by identifying relevant global-scale climate patterns. This is especially attractive for regions with limited observations and or little capacity to develop flood early warning systems.

  2. Infant attachment predicts bodily freezing in adolescence: evidence from a prospective longitudinal study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hannah C. M. Niermann

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Early life-stress, particularly maternal deprivation, is associated with long-lasting deviations in animals’ freezing responses. Given the relevance of freezing for stress-coping, translational research is needed to examine the relation between insecure infant-parent attachment and bodily freezing-like behavior in humans. Therefore, we investigated threat-related reductions in body sway (indicative of freezing-like behavior in 14-year-old adolescents (N=79, for whom attachment security was earlier assessed in infancy. As expected, insecure (versus secure attachment was associated with less body sway for angry versus neutral faces. This effect remained when controlling for intermediate life-events. These results suggest that the long-lasting effects of early negative caregiving experiences on the human stress and threat systems extend to the primary defensive reaction of freezing. Additionally, we replicated earlier work in adults, by observing a significant correlation (in adolescents assessed as securely attached between subjective state anxiety and reduced body sway in response to angry versus neutral faces. Together, this research opens venues to start exploring the role of freezing in the development of human psychopathology.

  3. Significant correlation between spleen volume and thrombocytopenia in liver transplant patients: a concept for predicting persistent thrombocytopenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohira, Masahiro; Ishifuro, Minoru; Ide, Kentaro; Irei, Toshimitsu; Tashiro, Hirotaka; Itamoto, Toshiyuki; Ito, Katsuhide; Chayama, Kazuaki; Asahara, Toshimasa; Ohdan, Hideki

    2009-02-01

    Interferon (IFN) therapy with or without ribavirin treatment is well established as a standard antiviral treatment for hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients. However, susceptibility to thrombocytopenia is a major obstacle for initiating or continuing this therapy, particularly in liver transplant (LTx) recipients with HCV. Studies have reported that splenectomy performed concurrently with LTx is a feasible strategy for conditioning patients for anti-HCV IFN therapy. However, the relationship between the severity of splenomegaly and alterations in the blood cytopenia in LTx recipients remains to be clarified. Here, we analyzed the relationship between spleen volume (SV) and thrombocytopenia in 45 patients who underwent LTx at Hiroshima University Hospital. The extent of pre-LTx splenomegaly [the SV to body surface area (BSA) ratio in an individual] was inversely correlated with both the post-LTx white blood cell count and platelet (PLT) count (P or= 400), persistent thrombocytopenia is predictable after LTx. (c) 2009 AASLD.

  4. Predictive value of serum soluble corin in the risk of hyperglycemia: A population-based prospective cohort study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Zhengbao; Zhang, Qiu; Peng, Hao; Zhong, Chongke; Guo, Daoxia; Huangfu, Xinfeng; Chao, Xiangqin; Wang, Aili; Jin, Jianhua; Zhang, Yonghong

    2018-04-01

    Serum soluble corin has been suggested to be associated with hyperglycemia by cross-sectional study. However, the prospective relationship between them remains unclear, and whether lipid component influences the relationship between them has not yet been studied. A total of 1961 participants who were free from hyperglycemia were enrolled at baseline in 2010. The serum soluble corin concentrations were measured at baseline and all participants were followed up for hyperglycemia in 2014. The association between serum soluble corin and hyperglycemia incidence was appreciably modified by high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (P interaction  = 0.04). Elevated serum soluble corin was associated with the risk of hyperglycemia only in the HDL-C ≥1.04 mmol/l subgroup rather than all participants. In participants with HDL-C ≥1.04 mmol/l, the adjusted odds ratio (95% CU) of hyperglycemia associated with the fourth quartiles of corin was 1.78 (1.08-2.94) compared with the lowest quartile of serum soluble corin, and there was a positive linear dose-response relationship between them (P for linearity <0.01). The ordinal analysis showed an association between serum soluble corin and hyperglycemia severity (adjusted OR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.10-2.99; P trend  = 0.02, when 2 extreme quartiles were compared). The addition of serum soluble corin to conventional risk factors improved risk prediction for hyperglycemia (net reclassification index: 0.16; integrated discrimination improvement: 0.01) in participants with HDL-C ≥1.04 mmol/l. Serum soluble corin might be a valuable biomarker in prediction of future hyperglycemia in population with HDL-C ≥1.04 mmol/l, suggesting that corin might play a potential role in glucose metabolism. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Chronology of prescribing error during the hospital stay and prediction of pharmacist's alerts overriding: a prospective analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruni Vanida

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Drug prescribing errors are frequent in the hospital setting and pharmacists play an important role in detection of these errors. The objectives of this study are (1 to describe the drug prescribing errors rate during the patient's stay, (2 to find which characteristics for a prescribing error are the most predictive of their reproduction the next day despite pharmacist's alert (i.e. override the alert. Methods We prospectively collected all medication order lines and prescribing errors during 18 days in 7 medical wards' using computerized physician order entry. We described and modelled the errors rate according to the chronology of hospital stay. We performed a classification and regression tree analysis to find which characteristics of alerts were predictive of their overriding (i.e. prescribing error repeated. Results 12 533 order lines were reviewed, 117 errors (errors rate 0.9% were observed and 51% of these errors occurred on the first day of the hospital stay. The risk of a prescribing error decreased over time. 52% of the alerts were overridden (i.e error uncorrected by prescribers on the following day. Drug omissions were the most frequently taken into account by prescribers. The classification and regression tree analysis showed that overriding pharmacist's alerts is first related to the ward of the prescriber and then to either Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical class of the drug or the type of error. Conclusions Since 51% of prescribing errors occurred on the first day of stay, pharmacist should concentrate his analysis of drug prescriptions on this day. The difference of overriding behavior between wards and according drug Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical class or type of error could also guide the validation tasks and programming of electronic alerts.

  6. Can Bcl-XL expression predict the radio sensitivity of Bilharzial-related squamous bladder carcinoma? a prospective comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamel Nermen A

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Local pelvic recurrence after radical cystectomy for muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma accounts for 75% of treatment failures even in organ confined tumors. Despite the proven value of lymphadenectomy, up to 60% of patients undergoing cystectomy do not have it. These factors are in favor of adjuvant radiotherapy reevaluation. objectives: to evaluate the effect of adjuvant radiotherapy on disease free survival in muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder and to test the predictability of radio-sensitivity using the anti apoptotic protein Bcl-XL. Methods The study prospectively included 71 patients, (47 males, 24 females with muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma of the bladder (Stage pT2a-T3N0-N3M0 who underwent radical cystectomy in Assiut university hospitals between January 2005 and December 2006. Thirty eight patients received adjuvant radiotherapy to the pelvis in the dose of 50Gy/25 fractions/5 weeks (Group 1, while 33 patients did not receive adjuvant radiotherapy (group 2. Immunohistochemical characterization for bcl-xL expression was done. Follow up was done every 3 months for 12 to 36 months with a mean of 16 ± 10 months. All data were analyzed using SPSS version 16. Three years cumulative disease free survival was calculated and adjusted to Bcl-XL expression and side effects of the treatment were recorded. Results The disease free cumulative survival was 48% for group 1 and 29% for group 2 (log rank p value 0.03. The multivariate predictors of tumor recurrence were the positive Bcl-XL expression (odd ratio 41.1, 95% CI 8.4 - 102.3, p Conclusions Adjuvant radiotherapy for muscle invasive bilharzial related squamous cell carcinoma of the urinary bladder has potential effectiveness and minor side effects. Moreover, Bcl-XL expression is a valuable tool for predicting those who might not respond to this adjuvant treatment.

  7. Previous injuries and some training characteristics predict running-related injuries in recreational runners: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hespanhol Junior, Luiz Carlos; Pena Costa, Leonardo Oliveira; Lopes, Alexandre Dias

    2013-12-01

    What is the incidence of running-related injuries (RRIs) in recreational runners? Which personal and training characteristics predict RRIs in recreational runners? Prospective cohort study. A total of 200 recreational runners answered a fortnightly online survey containing questions about their running routine, races, and presence of RRI. These runners were followed-up for a period of 12 weeks. The primary outcome of this study was running-related injury. The incidence of injuries was calculated taking into account the exposure to running and was expressed by RRI/1000 hours. The association between potential predictive factors and RRIs was estimated using generalised estimating equation models. A total of 84 RRIs were registered in 60 (31%) of the 191 recreational runners who completed all follow-up surveys. Of the injured runners 30% (n=18/60) developed two or more RRIs, with 5/18 (28%) being recurrences. The incidence of RRI was 10 RRI/1000 hours of running exposure. The main type of RRI observed was muscle injuries (30%, n=25/84). The knee was the most commonly affected anatomical region (19%, n=16/84). The variables associated with RRI were: previous RRI (OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.01 to 3.51), duration of training although the effect was very small (OR 1.01, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.02), speed training (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.02 to 2.10), and interval training (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.43 to 0.88). Physiotherapists should be aware and advise runners that past RRI and speed training are associated with increased risk of further RRI, while interval training is associated with lower risk, although these associations may not be causative. Copyright © 2013 Australian Physiotherapy Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. PROSPECT improves cis-acting regulatory element prediction by integrating expression profile data with consensus pattern searches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujibuchi, Wataru; Anderson, John S. J.; Landsman, David

    2001-01-01

    Consensus pattern and matrix-based searches designed to predict cis-acting transcriptional regulatory sequences have historically been subject to large numbers of false positives. We sought to decrease false positives by incorporating expression profile data into a consensus pattern-based search method. We have systematically analyzed the expression phenotypes of over 6000 yeast genes, across 121 expression profile experiments, and correlated them with the distribution of 14 known regulatory elements over sequences upstream of the genes. Our method is based on a metric we term probabilistic element assessment (PEA), which is a ranking of potential sites based on sequence similarity in the upstream regions of genes with similar expression phenotypes. For eight of the 14 known elements that we examined, our method had a much higher selectivity than a naïve consensus pattern search. Based on our analysis, we have developed a web-based tool called PROSPECT, which allows consensus pattern-based searching of gene clusters obtained from microarray data. PMID:11574681

  9. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent

  10. Is the Predictability of New-Onset Postpartum Depression Better During Pregnancy or in the Early Postpartum Period? A Prospective Study in Croatian Women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakić Radoš, Sandra; Herman, Radoslav; Tadinac, Meri

    2016-01-01

    The researchers' aim was to examine whether it was better to predict new-onset postpartum depression (PPD) during pregnancy or immediately after childbirth. A prospective study conducted in Croatia followed women (N = 272) from the third trimester of pregnancy through the early postpartum period (within the first 3 postpartum days), to 6 weeks postpartum. Questionnaires on depression, anxiety, stress, coping, self-esteem, and social support were administered. Through regression analyses we showed that PPD symptoms could be equally predicted by variables from pregnancy (30.3%) and the early postpartum period (34.0%), with a small advantage of PPD prediction in the early postpartum period.

  11. Prediction of treatment outcome in patients with obsessive-compulsive disorder with Low-Resolution Brain Electromagnetic Tomography: a prospective EEG study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela eKrause

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The issue of predicting treatment response and identifying, in advance, which patient will profit from treating obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD seems to be an elusive goal. This prospective study investigated brain electric activity (using Low-Resolution Brain Electromagnetic Tomography (LORETA for the purpose of predicting response to treatment. Forty-one unmedicated patients with a DSM-IV diagnosis of OCD were included. A resting 32-channel EEG was obtained from each participant before and after ten weeks of standardized treatment with sertraline and behavioral therapy. LORETA was used to localize the sources of brain electrical activity. At week ten, patients were divided into responders and non-responders (according to a reduction of symptom severity > 50% on the Y-BOCS. LORETA analysis revealed that at baseline responders showed compared to non-responders a significantly lower brain electric activity within the beta 1 (t=2.86, p<0.05, 2 (t=2.81, p<0.05 and 3 (t=2.76, p<0.05 frequency bands and ROI analysis confirmed a reduced activity in alpha 2 (t=2.06, p<0.05 in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC. When baseline LORETA data were compared to follow-up data, the analysis showed in the responder group a significantly lower brain electrical resting activity in the beta 1 (t=3.17. p<0.05 and beta 3 (t=3.11. p<0.05 frequency bands and equally for the ROI analysis of the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC in the alpha 2 (t=2.15. p<0.05 frequency band. In the group of non-responders the opposite results were found. In addition, a positive correlation between frequency alpha 2 (rho=0.40, p=0.010, beta 3 (rho=0.42, p=0.006, delta (rho=0.33, p=0.038, theta (rho=0.34, p=0.031, alpha 1 (rho=0.38, p=0.015 and beta1 (rho=0.34, p=0.028 of the OFC and the bands delta (rho=0.33, p=0.035, alpha 1 (rho=0.36, p=0.019, alpha 2 (rho=0.34, p=0.031 and beta 3 (rho=0.38, p=0.015 of the ACC with a reduction of the Y-BOCS scores was identified.Our results suggest that

  12. The significance and predictive value of free light chains in the urine of patients with chronic inflammatory rheumatic disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bramlage, Carsten Paul; Froelich, Britta; Wallbach, Manuel; Minguet, Joan; Grupp, Clemens; Deutsch, Cornelia; Bramlage, Peter; Koziolek, Michael; Müller, Gerhard Anton

    2016-12-01

    In patients with rheumatic diseases, reliable markers for determining disease activity are scarce. One potential parameter is the level of immunoglobulin free light chains (FLCs), which is known to be elevated in the blood of patients with certain rheumatic diseases. Few studies have quantified FLCs in urine, a convenient source of test sample, in patients with different rheumatic diseases. We carried out a retrospective analysis of patients with rheumatic disease attending the University hospital of Goettingen, Germany. Subjects were included if they had urine levels of both κ and λ FLCs available and did not have myeloma. Data regarding systemic inflammation and kidney function were recorded, and FLC levels were correlated with inflammatory markers. Of the 382 patients with rheumatic disease, 40.1 % had chronic polyarthritis, 21.2 % connective tissue disease, 18.6 % spondyloarthritis and 15.7 % vasculitis. Elevated levels of κ FLCs were found for 84 % of patients and elevated λ for 52.7 %. For the patients with rheumatoid arthritis, FLCs correlated with C-reactive protein (κ, r = 0.368, p rheumatic disease, but not in κ/λ ratio. The correlation between FLCs and inflammatory markers in patients with rheumatoid arthritis demonstrates their potential for predicting disease activity.

  13. Combined use of serum MCP-1/IL-10 ratio and uterine artery Doppler index significantly improves the prediction of preeclampsia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Shihong; Gao, Yanan; Zhang, Linlin; Wang, Yuan; Zhang, Lindong; Liu, Pingping; Liu, Ling; Chen, Juan

    2017-10-01

    Monocyte chemotactic protein-1 (MCP-1, or CCL2) is a member of the chemokine subfamily involved in recruitment of monocytes in inflammatory tissues. IL-10 is a key regulator for maintaining the balance of anti-inflammatory and pro-inflammatory milieu at the feto-maternal interface. Doppler examination has been routinely performed for the monitoring and management of preeclampsia patients. This study evaluates the efficiency of these factors alone, or in combination, for the predication of preeclampsia. The serum levels of MCP-1 and IL-10 in 78 preeclampsia patients and 143 age-matched normal controls were measured. The Doppler ultrasonography was performed and Artery Pulsatility Index (PI) and Resistance Index (RI) were calculated for the same subjects. It was found that while the second-trimester serum MCP-1, IL-10, MCP-1/IL-10 ratio, PI, and RI showed some power in predicting preeclampsia, the combination of MCP-1/IL-10 and PI and RI accomplishes the highest efficiency, achieving an AUC of 0.973 (95% CI, 0.000-1.000, Ppreeclampsia. Future studies using a larger sample can be conducted to construct an algorithm capable of quantitative assessment on the risk of preeclampsia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Significant pre-accession factors predicting success or failure during a Marine Corps officer’s initial service obligation

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Jacob A.

    2015-01-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited Increasing diversity and equal opportunity in the military is a congressional and executive priority. At the same time, improving recruiting practices is a priority of the commandant of the Marine Corps. In an effort to provide information to the Marine Corps that may improve recruiting practice and enable retention of a higher quality and more diverse officer corps, probit econometric models are estimated to identify significant facto...

  15. Patient-Reported Allergies Predict Worse Outcomes After Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: Results From a Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otero, Jesse E; Graves, Christopher M; Gao, Yubo; Olson, Tyler S; Dickinson, Christopher C; Chalus, Rhonda J; Vittetoe, David A; Goetz, Devon D; Callaghan, John J

    2016-12-01

    Retrospective analyses have demonstrated correlation between patient-reported allergies and negative outcomes after total joint arthroplasty. We sought to validate these observations in a prospective cohort. One hundred forty-four patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty and 302 patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty were prospectively enrolled. Preoperatively, patients listed their allergies and completed the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form 36 (SF-36) and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) Questionnaire. At a mean of 17 months (range 12-25 months) postoperatively, SF-36, CCI, and Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) were obtained by telephone survey. Regression analysis was used to determine the strength of correlation between patient age, comorbidity burden, and number of allergies and outcome measurements. In 446 patients, 273 reported at least 1 allergy. The number of allergies reported ranged from 0 to 33. Penicillin or its derivative was the most frequently reported allergy followed by sulfa, environmental allergen, and narcotic pain medication. Patients reporting at least 1 allergy had a significantly lower postoperative SF-36 Physical Component Score compared to those reporting no allergies (51.3 vs 49.4, P = .01). The SF-36 postoperative Mental Component Score was no different between groups. Multivariate regression analysis showed that age and patient reported allergies, but not comorbidities, were independently associated with worse postoperative SF-36 Physical Component Summary (PCS) and WOMAC score. Patients with allergies experienced the same improvement in SF-36 PCS as those without an allergy. Comorbidities did not correlate with patient-reported function postoperatively. Patients who report allergies have lower postoperative outcome scores but may experience the same increment in improvement after total joint arthroplasty. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Birth weight and later life adherence to unhealthy lifestyles in predicting type 2 diabetes: prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yanping; Ley, Sylvia H; Tobias, Deirdre K; Chiuve, Stephanie E; VanderWeele, Tyler J; Rich-Edwards, Janet W; Curhan, Gary C; Willett, Walter C; Manson, JoAnn E; Hu, Frank B; Qi, Lu

    2015-07-21

    To prospectively assess the joint association of birth weight and established lifestyle risk factors in adulthood with incident type 2 diabetes and to quantitatively decompose the attributing effects to birth weight only, to adulthood lifestyle only, and to their interaction. Prospective cohort study. Health Professionals Follow-up Study (1986-2010), Nurses' Health Study (1980-2010), and Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2011). 149,794 men and women without diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline. Incident cases of type 2 diabetes, identified through self report and validated by a supplementary questionnaire. Unhealthy lifestyle was defined on the basis of body mass index, smoking, physical activity, alcohol consumption, and the alternate healthy eating index. During 20-30 years of follow-up, 11,709 new cases of type 2 diabetes were documented. The multivariate adjusted relative risk of type 2 diabetes was 1.45 (95% confidence interval 1.32 to 1.59) per kg lower birth weight and 2.10 (1.71 to 2.58) per unhealthy lifestyle factor. The relative risk of type 2 diabetes associated with a combination of per kg lower birth weight and per unhealthy lifestyle factor was 2.86 (2.26 to 3.63), which was more than the addition of the risk associated with each individual factor, indicating a significant interaction on an additive scale (P for interaction unhealthy lifestyle alone, and 18% (13.9% to 21.3%) to their interaction. Most cases of type 2 diabetes could be prevented by the adoption of a healthier lifestyle, but simultaneous improvement of both prenatal and postnatal factors could further prevent additional cases. © Li et al 2015.

  17. Serum Procalcitonin and Peripheral Venous Lactate for Predicting Dengue Shock and/or Organ Failure: A Prospective Observational Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vipa Thanachartwet

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Currently, there are no biomarkers that can predict the incidence of dengue shock and/or organ failure, although the early identification of risk factors is important in determining appropriate management to reduce mortality. Therefore, we sought to determine the factors associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure and to evaluate the prognostic value of serum procalcitonin (PCT and peripheral venous lactate (PVL levels as biomarkers of dengue shock and/or organ failure.A prospective observational study was conducted among adults hospitalized for confirmed viral dengue infection at the Hospital for Tropical Diseases in Bangkok, Thailand between October 2013 and July 2015. Data, including baseline characteristics, clinical parameters, laboratory findings, serum PCT and PVL levels, management, and outcomes, were recorded on pre-defined case report forms. Of 160 patients with dengue, 128 (80.0% patients had dengue without shock or organ failure, whereas 32 (20.0% patients developed dengue with shock and/or organ failure. Using a stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis, PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL (odds ratio [OR]: 4.80; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.60-14.45; p = 0.005 and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L (OR: 27.99, 95% CI: 8.47-92.53; p <0.001 were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. A combination of PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L provided good prognostic value for predicting dengue shock and/or organ failure, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.74-0.92, a sensitivity of 81.2% (95% CI: 63.6-92.8%, and a specificity of 84.4% (95% CI: 76.9-90.2%. Dengue shock patients with non-clearance of PCT and PVL expired during hospitalization.PCT ≥0.7 ng/mL and PVL ≥2.5 mmol/L were independently associated with dengue shock and/or organ failure. The combination of PCT and PVL levels could be used as prognostic biomarkers for the prediction of dengue shock and/or organ failure.

  18. Significance of cardiac sympathetic nervous system abnormality for predicting vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akutsu, Yasushi; Kaneko, Kyouichi; Kodama, Yusuke; Li, Hui-Ling; Kawamura, Mitsuharu; Asano, Taku; Hamazaki, Yuji; Tanno, Kaoru; Kobayashi, Youichi; Suyama, Jumpei; Shinozuka, Akira; Gokan, Takehiko

    2010-01-01

    Neuronal system activity plays an important role for the prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using 123 I metaiodobenzylguanidine ( 123 I-MIBG) scintigraphy, we investigated whether a cardiac sympathetic nervous system (SNS) abnormality would be associated with an increased risk of vascular events in patients with paroxysmal AF. 123 I-MIBG scintigraphy was performed in 69 consecutive patients (67 ± 13 years, 62% men) with paroxysmal AF who did not have structural heart disease. SNS integrity was assessed from the heart to mediastinum (H/M) ratio on delayed imaging. Serum concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) was measured before 123 I-MIBG study. During a mean of 4.5 ± 3.6 years follow-up, 19 patients had myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure (range: 0.2-11.5 years). SNS abnormality (H/M ratio <2.7) and high CRP (≥0.3 mg/dl) were associated with the vascular events (58.3% in 14 of 24 patients with SNS abnormality vs 11.1% in 5 of 45 patients without SNS abnormality, p < 0.0001, 52.4% in 11 of 21 patients with high CRP vs 16.7% in 8 of 48 patients without high CRP, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for potential confounding variables such as age, left atrial dimension and left ventricular function, SNS abnormality was an independent predictor of vascular events with a hazard ratio of 4.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-12.6, p = 0.014]. Further, SNS abnormality had an incremental and additive prognostic power in combination with high CRP with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.1 (95% CI: 1.5-10.9, p = 0.006). SNS abnormality is predictive of vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal AF. (orig.)

  19. Significance of cardiac sympathetic nervous system abnormality for predicting vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akutsu, Yasushi; Kaneko, Kyouichi; Kodama, Yusuke; Li, Hui-Ling; Kawamura, Mitsuharu; Asano, Taku; Hamazaki, Yuji; Tanno, Kaoru; Kobayashi, Youichi [Showa University School of Medicine, Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Suyama, Jumpei; Shinozuka, Akira; Gokan, Takehiko [Showa University School of Medicine, Department of Radiology, Tokyo (Japan)

    2010-04-15

    Neuronal system activity plays an important role for the prognosis of patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using {sup 123}I metaiodobenzylguanidine ({sup 123}I-MIBG) scintigraphy, we investigated whether a cardiac sympathetic nervous system (SNS) abnormality would be associated with an increased risk of vascular events in patients with paroxysmal AF. {sup 123}I-MIBG scintigraphy was performed in 69 consecutive patients (67 {+-} 13 years, 62% men) with paroxysmal AF who did not have structural heart disease. SNS integrity was assessed from the heart to mediastinum (H/M) ratio on delayed imaging. Serum concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) was measured before {sup 123}I-MIBG study. During a mean of 4.5 {+-} 3.6 years follow-up, 19 patients had myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure (range: 0.2-11.5 years). SNS abnormality (H/M ratio <2.7) and high CRP ({>=}0.3 mg/dl) were associated with the vascular events (58.3% in 14 of 24 patients with SNS abnormality vs 11.1% in 5 of 45 patients without SNS abnormality, p < 0.0001, 52.4% in 11 of 21 patients with high CRP vs 16.7% in 8 of 48 patients without high CRP, p < 0.0001). After adjustment for potential confounding variables such as age, left atrial dimension and left ventricular function, SNS abnormality was an independent predictor of vascular events with a hazard ratio of 4.1 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.3-12.6, p = 0.014]. Further, SNS abnormality had an incremental and additive prognostic power in combination with high CRP with an adjusted hazard ratio of 4.1 (95% CI: 1.5-10.9, p = 0.006). SNS abnormality is predictive of vascular events in patients with idiopathic paroxysmal AF. (orig.)

  20. Comparison of three scoring systems in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Min; Chen, Wan Jun; Lu, Xiao Ye; Qian, Jie; Zhu, Chang Qing

    2016-12-01

    To compare the performances of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS) and AIMS65 in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). This study enrolled 320 consecutive patients with AUGIB. Patients at high and low risks of developing adverse clinical outcomes (rebleeding, the need of clinical intervention and death) were categorized according to the GBS, mGBS and AIMS65 scoring systems. The outcome of the patients were the occurrences of adverse clinical outcomes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of three scoring systems were compared. Irrespective of the systems used, the high-risk groups showed higher rates of rebleeding, intervention and death compared with the low-risk groups (P < 0.05). For the prediction of rebleeding, AIMS65 (AUROC 0.735, 95% CI 0.667-0.802) performed significantly better than GBS (AUROC 0.672, 95% CI 0.597-0.747; P < 0.01) and mGBS (AUROC 0.677, 95% CI 0.602-0.753; P < 0.01). For the prediction of interventions, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.769, 95% CI 0.668-0.870; mGBS: AUROC 0.745, 95% CI 0.643-0.847; AIMS65: AUROC 0.746, 95% CI 0.640-0.851). For the prediction of in-hospital mortality, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.796, 95% CI 0.694-0.898; mGBS: AUROC 0.803, 95% CI 0.703-0.904; AIMS65: AUROC 0.786, 95% CI 0.670-0.903). The three scoring systems are reliable and accurate in predicting the rates of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in AUGIB. However, AIMS65 outperforms GBS and mGBS in predicting rebleeding. © 2016 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  1. Evaluation of ischemic corticospinal tract damage by diffusion tensor MRI. Its significance to predict functional outcome of corona radiata infarct

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanaka, Hideki

    2010-01-01

    Motor impairment is one of the most frequent symptoms among stroke patients and often leads to poststroke dependency. Recent advances of diffusion tensor MR imaging made it possible to identify corticospinal tract (CST) three-dimensionally and evaluate structural damage, so precise evaluation of the ischemic CST damage became feasible.Motor impairment, lesion size and location upon diffusion weighted MR image and clinical outcome were assessed in 23 acute to subacute capsular and corona radiata infarct patients. According to the lesion size, patients were grouped into A, maximal diameter below 15 mm and B, that above 15 mm. Motor impairment was graded severe: limb movement synergy level, moderate: selective muscle activity possible and mild: isolated movements well co-ordinated, each corresponding to Brunnstrom stage 1-3, 4-5, and 6, respectively. Outcome at the time of discharge was assessed by modified Rankin Scale (mRS), discharge destination and length of hospital stay were also registered. Diffusion tensor MR imaging was conducted in 15 corona radiata infarct patients at 2.3+-2.2 days from the onset of the clinical symptoms. CST was 3-dimensionally identified with dTV. II. SR and Volume-one 1.72 and CST-FA ratio (ipsi-/contralesional CST-FA) and CST-Area% (CST lesion free area/whole CST area) were obtained at the level where ischemic damage was most prominent and correlation of these parameters to motor impairment and clinical outcome was studied. CST-FA ratio and CST-Area% were in good correlation to motor impairment at presentation. Patients with severe motor impairment had lower CST-FA ratio and CSF-Area% than those with moderate or mild. CST-FA ratio was 0.73+-0.22 in patients with poor clinical outcome (mRS 3-6) and 0.93+-0.09 with good clinical outcome (mRS 0-2) (p=0.038). Diffusion tensor MR imaging is useful in evaluating motor impairment and predicting functional outcome of corona radiata infarct patient in the acute to subacute stage. (author)

  2. Sebum and Hydration Levels in Specific Regions of Human Face Significantly Predict the Nature and Diversity of Facial Skin Microbiome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Souvik; Mitra, Rupak; Maitra, Arindam; Gupta, Satyaranjan; Kumaran, Srikala; Chakrabortty, Amit; Majumder, Partha P

    2016-10-27

    The skin microbiome varies across individuals. The causes of these variations are inadequately understood. We tested the hypothesis that inter-individual variation in facial skin microbiome can be significantly explained by variation in sebum and hydration levels in specific facial regions of humans. We measured sebum and hydration from forehead and cheek regions of healthy female volunteers (n = 30). Metagenomic DNA from skin swabs were sequenced for V3-V5 regions of 16S rRNA gene. Altogether, 34 phyla were identified; predominantly Actinobacteria (66.3%), Firmicutes (17.7%), Proteobacteria (13.1%) and Bacteroidetes (1.4%). About 1000 genera were identified; predominantly Propionibacterium (58.6%), Staphylococcus (8.6%), Streptococcus (4.0%), Corynebacterium (3.6%) and Paracoccus (3.3%). A subset (n = 24) of individuals were sampled two months later. Stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that cheek sebum level was the most significant predictor of microbiome composition and diversity followed by forehead hydration level; forehead sebum and cheek hydration levels were not. With increase in cheek sebum, the prevalence of Actinobacteria (p = 0.001)/Propionibacterium (p = 0.002) increased, whereas microbiome diversity decreased (Shannon Index, p = 0.032); this was opposite for other phyla/genera. These trends were reversed for forehead hydration levels. Therefore, the nature and diversity of facial skin microbiome is jointly determined by site-specific lipid and water levels in the stratum corneum.

  3. IL-6 is a potential marker for radiation pneumonitis: a prospective clinical study of circulating cytokines in predicting radiation pulmonary injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Yuhchyau; Rubin, Philip; McDonald, Sandra; Finkelstein, Jacob; Smudzin, Therese; Hernady, Eric; Williams, Jacqueline

    1997-01-01

    Purpose/Objective: The use of radiotherapy in eradicating thoracic malignancy is limited by the normal lung tissue tolerance to ionizing radiation. Subacute and late radiation pulmonary toxicity manifests as radiation pneumonitis and ultimately lung fibrosis. Recently, the addition of chemotherapy or a biologic response modifier to radiation has become the standard therapy for inoperable lung cancer. The radiosensitizing effect of these agents is associated with an increased risk of radiation pulmonary injury and treatment related mortality. The search for a serum marker for predicting radiation pulmonary injury will help us understand the mechanism leading to such events and find possible interventions to prevent the adverse outcome. Unpublished data from our laboratory suggested that following a single dose of radiation, there was a dose-related elevation in IL-6 protein levels in the lung of radiation fibrosis prone mice. Based on this information, a prospective clinical study of circulating cytokine levels and its application to predict radiation induced pulmonary injury was conducted at University of Rochester. Preliminary results revealed promising information in identifying a circulating cytokine as a predictor for radiation pneumonitis. Materials and Methods: Eighteen patients receiving thoracic irradiation for primary thoracic malignancy were registered in the study. Radiation pneumonitis was determined by subjective respiratory symptoms assessed according to RTOG morbidity scoring criteria. Pretreatment and serial post-therapy chest X-ray, chest CT scan and pulmonary function tests were obtained. Radiation fibrosis was determined by radiographic changes in irradiated normal lung using a scoring system which quantified the extent of loss of air content, degree of opacification, anatomic extent of involvement, air bronchogram, pleural thickening, or effusion. Plasma levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6), tumor necrosis factor (TNF), transforming growth factor

  4. Value of quantitative MRI parameters in predicting and evaluating clinical outcome in conservatively treated patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy: A prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsehaie, J; Poot, D H J; Oei, E H G; Verhaar, J A N; de Vos, R J

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate whether baseline MRI parameters provide prognostic value for clinical outcome, and to study correlation between MRI parameters and clinical outcome. Observational prospective cohort study. Patients with chronic midportion Achilles tendinopathy were included and performed a 16-week eccentric calf-muscle exercise program. Outcome measurements were the validated Victorian Institute of Sports Assessment-Achilles (VISA-A) questionnaire and MRI parameters at baseline and after 24 weeks. The following MRI parameters were assessed: tendon volume (Volume), tendon maximum cross-sectional area (CSA), tendon maximum anterior-posterior diameter (AP), and signal intensity (SI). Intra-class correlation coefficients (ICCs) and minimum detectable changes (MDCs) for each parameter were established in a reliability analysis. Twenty-five patients were included and complete follow-up was achieved in 20 patients. The average VISA-A scores increased significantly with 12.3 points (27.6%). The reliability was fair-good for all MRI-parameters with ICCs>0.50. Average tendon volume and CSA decreased significantly with 0.28cm 3 (5.2%) and 4.52mm 2 (4.6%) respectively. Other MRI parameters did not change significantly. None of the baseline MRI parameters were univariately associated with VISA-A change after 24 weeks. MRI SI increase over 24 weeks was positively correlated with the VISA-A score improvement (B=0.7, R 2 =0.490, p=0.02). Tendon volume and CSA decreased significantly after 24 weeks of conservative treatment. As these differences were within the MDC limits, they could be a result of a measurement error. Furthermore, MRI parameters at baseline did not predict the change in symptoms, and therefore have no added value in providing a prognosis in daily clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Low Self-Esteem during Adolescence Predicts Poor Health, Criminal Behavior, and Limited Economic Prospects during Adulthood

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trzesniewski, Kali H.; Donnellan, M. Brent; Moffitt, Terrie E.; Robins, Richard W.; Poulton, Richie; Caspi, Avshalom

    2006-01-01

    Using prospective data from the Dunedin Multidisciplinary Health and Development Study birth cohort, the authors found that adolescents with low self-esteem had poorer mental and physical health, worse economic prospects, and higher levels of criminal behavior during adulthood, compared with adolescents with high self-esteem. The long-term…

  6. The prognostic significance of atrial fibrillation in heart failure with preserved ejection function: insights from KaRen, a prospective and multicenter study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosseau, Christian; Donal, Erwan; Lund, Lars H; Oger, Emmanuel; Hage, Camilla; Mulak, Geneviève; Daubert, Jean-Claude; Linde, Cecilia

    2017-06-01

    The prognostic value of atrial fibrillation (AF) in heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) remains controversial. We sought to study the prognostic value of AF in a prospective cohort and to characterize the HFPEF patients with AF. KaRen was a prospective, multicenter, international, observational study intended to characterize HFPEF; 538 patients presenting with an acute decompensated cardiac failure and a left ventricular EF > 45% were included. EKG and echocardiogram performed 4-8 week following the index hospitalization were analyzed in core centers. Clinical and echocardiographic characteristics of patients in sinus rhythm vs. with documented AF at enrolment (decompensated HF), upon their 4-8-week visit (in presumed stable clinical condition) and according to patients' cardiac history, were compared. The primary study endpoint was death from any cause or first hospitalization for decompensated heart failure (HF). A total of 413 patients (32% in AF) were analyzed, with a mean follow-up period of 28 months. The patients were primarily elderly individuals (mean age: 76.2 years), with a slight female predominance and a high prevalence of non-cardiovascular comorbidities. The baseline echocardiographic characteristics and the natriuretic peptide levels were indicative of a more severe heart condition among the patients with AF. However, the patients with AF exhibited a similar survival-free interval compared with the patients in sinus rhythm. In this elderly HFPEF population with a high prevalence of non-cardiovascular comorbidities, the presence of AF was not associated with a worse prognosis despite impaired clinical and echocardiographic features.ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00774709.

  7. SU-F-R-48: Early Prediction of Pathological Response of Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Using Perfusion CT:A Prospective Clinical Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nie, K; Yue, N; Jabbour, S; Kim, S [Rutgers-Cancer Institute of New Jersey, Rutgers-Robert Wood Johnson Medical, New Brunswick, NJ (United States); Shi, L; Mao, T; Qian, L; Hu, X; Sun, X; Niu, T [Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang (China)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To prospectively evaluate the tumor vascularity assessed by perfusion CT for prediction of chemo-radiation treatment (CRT) response in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Methods: Eighteen consecutive patients (61.9±8.8 years, from March–June 2015) diagnosed with LARC who underwent 6–8 weeks CRT followed by surgery were included. The pre-treatment perfusion CT was acquired after a 5s delay of contrast agent injection for 45s with 1s interval. A total of 7-cm craniocaudal range covered the tumor region with 3-mm slice thickness. The effective radiation dose is around 15mSv, which is about 1.5 the conventional abdomen/pelvis CT dose. The parametric map of blood flow (BF), blood volume (BV), mean transit time (MTT), permeability (PMB), and maximum intensity map (MIP) were obtained from commercial software (Syngo-CT 2011A, Siemens). An experienced radiation oncologist outlined the tumor based on the pre-operative MR and pathologic residual region, but was blinded with regards to pathological tumor stage. The perfusion parameters were compared to histopathological response quantified by tumor regression grade as good-responder (GR, TRG 0-1) vs. non-good responder (non-GR). Furthermore, the predictive value for pathological complete response (pCR) was also investigated. Results: Both BV (p=0.02) and MTT (P=0.02) was significantly higher and permeambility was lower (p=0.004) in the good responders. The BF was higher in GR group but not statistically significant. Regarding the discrimination of pCR vs non-pCR, the BF was higher in the pCR group (p=0.08) but none of those parameters showed statistically significant differences. Conclusion: BV and MTT can discriminate patients with a favorable response from those that fail to respond well, potentially selecting high-risk patients with resistant tumors that may benefit from an aggressive preoperative treatment approach. However, future studies with more patient data are needed to verify the prognostic value

  8. A prospective, longitudinal study to evaluate the clinical utility of a predictive algorithm that detects risk of opioid use disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenton, Ashley; Lee, Chee; Lewis, Katrina; Sharma, Maneesh; Kantorovich, Svetlana; Smith, Gregory A; Meshkin, Brian

    2018-01-01

    Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine the clinical utility of an algorithm-based decision tool designed to assess risk associated with opioid use. Specifically, we sought to assess how physicians were using the profile in patient care and how its use affected patient outcomes. Patients and methods A prospective, longitudinal study was conducted to assess the utility of precision medicine testing in 5,397 patients across 100 clinics in the USA. Using a patent-protected, validated algorithm combining specific genetic risk factors with phenotypic traits, patients were categorized into low-, moderate-, and high-risk patients for opioid abuse. Physicians who ordered precision medicine testing were asked to complete patient evaluations and document their actions, decisions, and perceptions regarding the utility of the precision medicine tests. The patient outcomes associated with each treatment action were carefully documented. Results Physicians used the profile to guide treatment decisions for over half of the patients. Of those, guided treatment decisions for 24.5% of the patients were opioid related, including changing the opioid prescribed, starting an opioid, or titrating a patient off the opioid. Treatment guidance was strongly influenced by profile-predicted opioid use disorder (OUD) risk. Most importantly, patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, including better pain management by medication adjustments, with an average pain decrease of 3.4 points on a scale of 1–10. Conclusion Patients whose physicians used the profile to guide opioid-related treatment decisions had improved clinical outcomes, as measured by decreased pain levels resulting from better pain management with prescribed medications. The clinical utility of the profile is twofold. It provides clinically actionable recommendations that can be used to 1) prevent OUD through limiting initial opioid

  9. External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamain-de Ruiter, Marije; Kwee, Anneke; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; de Groot, Inge; Evers, Inge M; Groenendaal, Floris; Hering, Yolanda R; Huisjes, Anjoke J M; Kirpestein, Cornel; Monincx, Wilma M; Siljee, Jacqueline E; Van 't Zelfde, Annewil; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Vankan-Buitelaar, Simone A; Vonk, Mariska A A W; Wiegers, Therese A; Zwart, Joost J; Franx, Arie; Moons, Karel G M; Koster, Maria P H

    2016-08-30

     To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy.  External validation of all published prognostic models in large scale, prospective, multicentre cohort study.  31 independent midwifery practices and six hospitals in the Netherlands.  Women recruited in their first trimester (diabetes mellitus of any type were excluded.  Discrimination of the prognostic models was assessed by the C statistic, and calibration assessed by calibration plots.  3723 women were included for analysis, of whom 181 (4.9%) developed gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnancy. 12 prognostic models for the disorder could be validated in the cohort. C statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Calibration plots showed that eight of the 12 models were well calibrated. The four models with the highest C statistics included almost all of the following predictors: maternal age, maternal body mass index, history of gestational diabetes mellitus, ethnicity, and family history of diabetes. Prognostic models had a similar performance in a subgroup of nulliparous women only. Decision curve analysis showed that the use of these four models always had a positive net benefit.  In this external validation study, most of the published prognostic models for gestational diabetes mellitus show acceptable discrimination and calibration. The four models with the highest discriminative abilities in this study cohort, which also perform well in a subgroup of nulliparous women, are easy models to apply in clinical practice and therefore deserve further evaluation regarding their clinical impact. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  10. Prospective Evaluation of Nutritional Factors to Predict the Risk of Complications for Patients Undergoing Radical Cystectomy: A Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allaire, Janie; Léger, Caroline; Ben-Zvi, Tal; Nguilé-Makao, Molière; Fradet, Yves; Lacombe, Louis; Fradet, Vincent

    2017-01-01

    The objective of this study was to identify nutritional preoperative factors associated with complications after radical cystectomy (RC). We prospectively evaluated the Mini-Nutritional Assessment Score, body mass index (BMI), appetite, stool frequency, hydration, food intake, weight loss, albuminemia, and prealbuminemia of 144 patients who underwent RC between January 2011 and April 2014. Postoperative complications were defined as any adverse event reported in the patient's file up to 90 days after surgery. Each complication was classified according to the Clavien-Dindo and Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center systems. The adjusted relative risk (RR) computed through a Poisson regression model was used to identify nutritional risk factors associated with post-RC complications. A high BMI >27 kg/m 2 was associated with higher risk of low-grade complications (RR:1.47 [95% CI,1.09-2.00]) at 7 days and a four-fold increased risk of cardiac complications at 7 and 90 days (RR:3.77 [1.15-12.32] and RR:3.28 [1.35-7.98]). Decreased appetite was associated with low-grade (RR:1.43 [1.03-1.99] complications within 90 days. Preoperative weight loss >3 kg was associated with high-grade (RR:2.49 [1.23-5.05]) and wound (RR:2.51 [1.23-5.10]) complications within 90 days. This study showed that preoperative nutritional status of patients may predict the occurrence of complications up to 90 days post-RC. Development of preoperative nutritional interventions may reduce the deleterious impact of RC on patients' health.

  11. Pre-fracture nutritional status is predictive of functional status at discharge during the acute phase with hip fracture patients: A multicenter prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Tatsuro; Misu, Syogo; Tanaka, Toshiaki; Sakamoto, Hiroki; Iwata, Kentaro; Chuman, Yuki; Ono, Rei

    2017-10-01

    Malnutrition is common in patients with hip fractures, and elderly patients with hip fractures lose functional independence and often fail to recover previous functional status. The aim of this study was to determine whether pre-fracture nutritional status predicts functional status of patients with hip fracture at discharge from acute hospitals. In the present multicenter prospective cohort study, pre-fracture nutritional status was assessed using the Mini Nutritional Assessment Short-Form (MNA-SF). At discharge from acute hospitals, functional status was evaluated using a functional independent measurement instrument (FIM). Subsequently, multiple regression analyses were performed using FIM as the dependent variable and MNA-SF as the independent variable. Among the 204 patients analyzed in the present study, the mean length of hospital stay was 26.2 ± 12.6 days, and according to MNA-SF assessments, 51 (25.0%) patients were malnourished, 98 (48.0%) were at risk of malnutrition, and 55 (27.0%) were well-nourished before fracture. At discharge, FIM scores were higher in patients who were well-nourished than in those who were malnourished or were at risk of malnutrition (p fracture nutritional status was a significant independent predictor for functional status at discharge during the acute phase, warranting early assessment of nutritional status and early intervention for successful postoperative rehabilitation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

  12. Predictive validity of granulation tissue color measured by digital image analysis for deep pressure ulcer healing: a multicenter prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iizaka, Shinji; Kaitani, Toshiko; Sugama, Junko; Nakagami, Gojiro; Naito, Ayumi; Koyanagi, Hiroe; Konya, Chizuko; Sanada, Hiromi

    2013-01-01

    This multicenter prospective cohort study examined the predictive validity of granulation tissue color evaluated by digital image analysis for deep pressure ulcer healing. Ninety-one patients with deep pressure ulcers were followed for 3 weeks. From a wound photograph taken at baseline, an image representing the granulation red index (GRI) was processed in which a redder color represented higher values. We calculated the average GRI over granulation tissue and the proportion of pixels exceeding the threshold intensity of 80 for the granulation tissue surface (%GRI80) and wound surface (%wound red index 80). In the receiver operating characteristics curve analysis, most GRI parameters had adequate discriminative values for both improvement of the DESIGN-R total score and wound closure. Ulcers were categorized by the obtained cutoff points of the average GRI (≤80, >80), %GRI80 (≤55, >55-80, >80%), and %wound red index 80 (≤25, >25-50, >50%). In the linear mixed model, higher classes for all GRI parameters showed significantly greater relative improvement in overall wound severity during the 3 weeks after adjustment for patient characteristics and wound locations. Assessment of granulation tissue color by digital image analysis will be useful as an objective monitoring tool for granulation tissue quality or surrogate outcomes of pressure ulcer healing. © 2012 by the Wound Healing Society.

  13. Serum Cystatin C Predicts AKI and the Prognosis of Patients in Coronary Care Unit: a Prospective, Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yugang Hu

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: Acute Kidney Injury (AKI is a serious clinical state associated with high morbidity and mortality, particularly in critical ill patients. We investigated the hypothesis that serum Cystatin C (sCysC is a good predictor for AKI and may affect the short-term prognosis of coronary care unit (CCU patients. Methods: In this prospective, observational study, we screened 412 adults admitted to the CCU from January 1, 2014 to June 1, 2015 at Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University. Serum samples were obtained at the time of admission, and sCysC was quantified through nephelometry. AKI was defined based on KDIGO-AKI criteria. After the patients’ hospital discharge, the survivors in this study were followed up for up to 2 years. The primary endpoint was the incidence of AKI stratified by severity stage, while the second endpoints included 2-year mortality, rehospitalization and failure in renal recovery rates, as well as the progression of AKI to CKD. Results: According to the KDIGO-AKI criteria, AKI occurred in 130 (31.6% patients. After multivariate adjustments, the highest quartile of sCysC was associated with a 9-fold increased risk of incident AKI compared with the lowest quartile. For predicting AKI, sCysC [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC=0.842] outperformed β2-micro globulin (AUC=0.813 and the clinical model (AUC=0.777, and a cutoff of 1.255 mg/L yielded good sensitivity and specificity. After a median 19.8-month follow-up, 112 (27.2% patients died within 2 years after admission. The sCysC independently predicted the risk of 2-year mortality [adjusted odds ratio (OR, 4.955; 95% confidence interval (95% CI, 2.853 to 8.603] and rehospitalization (OR, 3.128; 95% CI, 2.011 to 4.867, as well as renal recovery failure (OR, 3.618, 95% CI, 1.753 to 7.463. Conclusions: Serum CysC is a strong predictor of AKI and the short-term prognosis of CCU patients.

  14. A Multi-Center Prospective Study to Validate an Algorithm Using Urine and Plasma Biomarkers for Predicting Gleason ≥3+4 Prostate Cancer on Biopsy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albitar, Maher; Ma, Wanlong; Lund, Lars

    2017-01-01

    a prospective multicenter study recruiting patients from community-based practices. Patients and Methods: Urine and plasma samples from 2528 men were tested prospectively. Results were correlated with biopsy findings, if a biopsy was performed as deemed necessary by the practicing urologist. Of the 2528......Background: Unnecessary biopsies and overdiagnosis of prostate cancer (PCa) remain a serious healthcare problem. We have previously shown that urine- and plasma-based prostate-specific biomarkers when combined can predict high grade prostate cancer (PCa). To further validate this test, we performed...... of high grade prostate cancer with negative predictive value (NPV) of 90% to 97% for Gleason ≥3+4 and between 98% to 99% for Gleason ≥4+3....

  15. Prospective validation of FibroTest in comparison with liver stiffness for predicting liver fibrosis in Asian subjects with chronic hepatitis B.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beom Kyung Kim

    Full Text Available Diagnostic values of FibroTest (FT for hepatic fibrosis have rarely been assessed in Asian chronic hepatitis B (CHB patients. We aimed to validate its diagnostic performances in comparison with liver stiffness (LS.From 2008 to 2010, 194 CHB patients who underwent liver biopsies along with FT and transient elastography were prospectively enrolled. Fibrosis stage was assessed according to the Batts and Ludwig system.To predict significant fibrosis (F≥2, advanced fibrosis (F≥3, and cirrhosis (F = 4, areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs of FT were 0.903, 0.907, and 0.866, comparable to those of LS (0.873, 0.897, and 0.910, respectively. Optimized cutoffs of FT to maximize sum of sensitivity and specificity were 0.32, 0.52, and 0.68 for F≥2, F≥3, and F = 4, while those of LS were 8.8, 10.2, and 14.1 kPa, respectively. According to FT and LS cutoffs, 123 (63.4% and 124 (63.9% patients were correctly classified consistent with histological fibrosis (F1, F2, F3, and F4, respectively. Overall concordance between each fibrosis stage estimated by FT and LS was observed in 111 patients, where 88 were correctly classified with histological results. A combination formula adding LS to FT (LS+FT showed similar AUROC levels (0.885, 0.905, and 0.915, while another multiplying LS by FT (LS×FT showed the best AUROCs (0.941, 0.931, and 0.929 for F≥2, F≥3, and F4, respectively.FT provides good fibrosis prediction, with comparable outcomes to LS in Asian CHB patients. FT substantially reduces need for liver biopsy, especially when used in combination with LS.

  16. A prospective study of self-esteem in the prediction of eating problems in adolescent schoolgirls: questionnaire findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Button, E J; Sonuga-Barke, E J; Davies, J; Thompson, M

    1996-05-01

    A number of authors have emphasized the importance of self-esteem in the aetiology of the eating disorders anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa. Evidence for such theorizing, however, mainly derives from clinical observations on people being treated for eating disorders. This study is the first prospective study to investigate the role of self-esteem in aetiology prior to the onset of an eating disorder. Self-esteem was measured in 594 schoolgirls aged 11-12 using the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (Rosenberg, 1965). Almost 400 of these girls were successfully followed up at age 15-16 and they completed a questionnaire examining eating and other psychological problems. Results showed that girls with low self-esteem at age 11-12 were at significantly greater risk of developing the more severe signs of eating disorders, as well as other psychological problems, by the age of 15-16. It is argued that more research is needed to replicate and extend these findings. The results also give weight to the case for examining the potential role of self-esteem enhancement in the prevention of eating disorders.

  17. Dermatology consultations significantly contribute quality to care of hospitalized patients: a prospective study of dermatology inpatient consults at a tertiary care center.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galimberti, Fabrizio; Guren, Lauren; Fernandez, Anthony P; Sood, Apra

    2016-10-01

    Cutaneous abnormalities are common in hospitalized patients but are frequently missed or misdiagnosed by admitting teams. Inpatient dermatology consultations provide important information to help diagnose and manage these patients. However, few studies have analyzed dermatology inpatient consultations and their effect. We prospectively collected information for 691 consecutive dermatology consultations from November 2013 to November 2014. Patients ranged in age from newborns to 97 years old. The internal medicine service requested the most consultations (45%). Only 6.5% of consultations were requested within 24 hours of appearance of cutaneous findings. Before consultation, 70.3% of patients did not receive treatment for or based on their cutaneous findings. Dermatology consultation resulted in treatment change in 81.9% of patients. The most common diagnoses were drug rash and contact dermatitis. Biopsies confirmed 71.7% of the initial bedside diagnoses by the dermatology consultation team. Common skin diseases were responsible for the majority of dermatology consultations. Most patients were not treated for their cutaneous conditions before the dermatology consultation. Dermatology consultations resulted in treatment changes in the majority of cases. © 2016 The International Society of Dermatology.

  18. Cognitive cooperation groups mediated by computers and internet present significant improvement of cognitive status in older adults with memory complaints: a controlled prospective study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo de Rosso Krug

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To estimate the effect of participating in cognitive cooperation groups, mediated by computers and the internet, on the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE percent variation of outpatients with memory complaints attending two memory clinics. Methods A prospective controlled intervention study carried out from 2006 to 2013 with 293 elders. The intervention group (n = 160 attended a cognitive cooperation group (20 sessions of 1.5 hours each. The control group (n = 133 received routine medical care. Outcome was the percent variation in the MMSE. Control variables included gender, age, marital status, schooling, hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, hypothyroidism, depression, vascular diseases, polymedication, use of benzodiazepines, exposure to tobacco, sedentary lifestyle, obesity and functional capacity. The final model was obtained by multivariate linear regression. Results The intervention group obtained an independent positive variation of 24.39% (CI 95% = 14.86/33.91 in the MMSE compared to the control group. Conclusion The results suggested that cognitive cooperation groups, mediated by computers and the internet, are associated with cognitive status improvement of older adults in memory clinics.

  19. Muscle Strength Is a Poor Screening Test for Predicting Lower Extremity Injuries in Professional Male Soccer Players: A 2-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakken, Arnhild; Targett, Stephen; Bere, Tone; Eirale, Cristiano; Farooq, Abdulaziz; Mosler, Andrea B; Tol, Johannes L; Whiteley, Rod; Khan, Karim M; Bahr, Roald

    2018-03-01

    Lower extremity muscle strength tests are commonly used to screen for injury risk in professional soccer. However, there is limited evidence on the ability of such tests in predicting future injuries. To examine the association between hip and thigh muscle strength and the risk of lower extremity injuries in professional male soccer players. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Professional male soccer players from 14 teams in Qatar underwent a comprehensive strength assessment at the beginning of the 2013/2014 and 2014/2015 seasons. Testing consisted of concentric and eccentric quadriceps and hamstring isokinetic peak torques, eccentric hip adduction and abduction forces, and bilateral isometric adductor force (squeeze test at 45°). Time-loss injuries and exposure in training and matches were registered prospectively by club medical staff throughout each season. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. In total, 369 players completed all strength tests and had registered injury and exposure data. Of these, 206 players (55.8%) suffered 538 lower extremity injuries during the 2 seasons; acute muscle injuries were the most frequent. Of the 20 strength measures examined, greater quadriceps concentric peak torque at 300 deg/s (HR, 1.005 [95% CI, 1.00-1.01]; P = .037) was the only strength measure identified as significantly associated with a risk of lower extremity injuries in multivariate analysis. Greater quadriceps concentric peak torque at 60 deg/s (HR, 1.004 [95% CI, 1.00-1.01]; P = .026) was associated with the risk of overuse injuries, and greater bilateral adductor strength adjusted for body weight (HR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.57-0.97; P = .032) was associated with a lower risk for any knee injury. Receiver operating characteristic curve analyses indicated poor predictive ability of the significant strength variables (area under the curve, 0.45-0.56). There was a weak association with the risk of

  20. Serum phosphate predicts early mortality in adults starting antiretroviral therapy in Lusaka, Zambia: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas C Heimburger

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa have high rates of mortality in the initial weeks of treatment. We assessed the association of serum phosphate with early mortality among HIV-infected adults with severe malnutrition and/or advanced immunosuppression. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: An observational cohort of 142 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia with body mass index (BMI <16 kg/m(2 or CD4(+ lymphocyte count <50 cells/microL, or both, was followed prospectively during the first 12 weeks of ART. Detailed health and dietary intake history, review of systems, physical examination, serum metabolic panel including phosphate, and serum ferritin and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP were monitored. The primary outcome was mortality. Baseline serum phosphate was a significant predictor of mortality; participants alive at 12 weeks had a median value of 1.30 mmol/L (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.04, 1.43, compared to 1.06 mmol/L (IQR: 0.89, 1.27 among those who died (p<0.01. Each 0.1 mmol/L increase in baseline phosphate was associated with an incremental decrease in mortality (AHR 0.83; 95% CI 0.72 to 0.95. The association was independent of other metabolic parameters and known risk factors for early ART-associated mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. While participant attrition represented a limitation, it was consistent with local program experience. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Low serum phosphate at ART initiation was an independent predictor of early mortality among HIV patients starting ART with severe malnutrition or advanced immunosuppression. This may represent a physiologic phenomenon similar to refeeding syndrome, and may lead to therapeutic interventions that could reduce mortality.

  1. Significance of findings of both emergency chest X-ray and thoracic computed tomography routinely performed at the emergency unit in 102 polytrauma patients. A prospective study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grieser, T.; Buehne, K.H.; Haeuser, H.; Bohndorf, K.

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate prospectively whether and to what extent both thoracic computed tomography (Tx-CT) and supine X-ray of the chest (Rx-Tx) are able to show additional findings that are therapeutically relevant. Patients and Methods: According to a fixed study protocol, we performed Rx-Tx and Tx-CT in 102 consecutive, haemodynamically stable polytrauma patients (mean age, 41.2 yrs; age range, 12-93 yrs). Findings of therapeutical relevance drawn from both Tx-CT and Rx-Tx, and urgent interventions indicated by an attending trauma team were documented on a standardized evaluation sheet immediately. Any change in the patient's management that is different from routine life-saving procedures, and any therapeutical intervention done in the emergency room or elsewhere (operating theatre, angiographic facility) were considered therapeutically relevant. Results: Of 102 patients, 43 (42.2%) had a total of 51 therapeutically relevant findings. Rx-Tx alone yielded 23 relevant findings (45.1%) in 23 patients (22.5%). Of them, Tx-CT has shown additional important findings in 7 patients (30.4%). When Tx-CT alone is considered, it revealed 22 new findings of therapeutical relevance (43.2%) in 20 patients (46.5%). Altogether, Tx-CT was able to show 30 relevant findings in 27 patients, i.e., there was a therapeutical benefit for 26.5% of all polytrauma patients included. Most frequently, there was a need for chest-tube insertion (n=29). Conclusions: Polytrauma patients if haemodynamically stable may profit from computed tomography of the chest when therapeutically relevant thoracic injuries are looked for or early therapeutical interventions are to be checked. However, chest X-ray should stay as a 'front-line' screening method because of its superbly quick feasibility and availability. (orig.) [de

  2. Prevalence and clinical significance of residual myocardial ischemia 2 weeks after uncomplicated non-Q wave infarction: a prospective natural history study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibson, R.S.; Beller, G.A.; Gheorghiade, M.; Nygaard, T.W.; Watson, D.D.; Huey, B.L.; Sayre, S.L.; Kaiser, D.L.

    1986-01-01

    Despite having smaller infarct size and better left ventricular function, patients with non-Q wave myocardial infarction (NQMI) appear to have an unexpectedly high long-term mortality that is ultimately comparable to that of patients with Q-wave myocardial infarction (QMI). Patients with NQMI may lose their initial prognostic advantage because there is more viable tissue in the perfusion zone of the infarct-related vessel, rendering myocardium more prone to reinfarction. We tested this hypothesis in a prospective study of 241 consecutive patients 65 years of age or younger with acute uncomplicated myocardial infarction confirmed by creatine kinase levels (MB fraction). All patients received customary care and none underwent thrombolytic therapy or emergency angioplasty. Predischarge coronary angiography, radionuclide ventriculography, 24 hr Holter monitoring, and quantitative thallium-201 scintigraphy during treadmill exercise were performed 10 +/- 3 days after infarction. Infarcts were designated as QMI (n = 154) or NQMI (n = 87) by accepted criteria applied to serial electrocardiograms obtained on days 1, 2, 3, and 10. The baseline Norris coronary prognostic index, angiographic jeopardy scores, and prevalence of Lown grade ventricular arrhythmias were similar between groups despite evidence for less necrosis with NQMI vs QMI, reflected by lower peak creatine kinase levels (520 vs 1334 IU/liter; p = .0001, 4 hr sampling), higher resting left ventricular ejection fraction (53% vs 46%; p = .0001), fewer akinetic or dyskinetic segments (1.2 vs 2.4; p = .0001), and fewer persistent 201 Tl defects in the infarct zone. Patients with NQMI also had more patent infarct-related vessels and a shorter time from onset of infarction to peak creatine kinase level

  3. Weekly variations in feelings of trust predict incident STI within a prospective cohort of adolescent women from a US city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matson, Pamela A; Fortenberry, J Dennis; Chung, Shang-En; Gaydos, Charlotte A; Ellen, Jonathan M

    2018-03-24

    Feelings of intimacy, perceptions of partner concurrency (PPC) and perceptions of risk for an STD (PRSTD) are meaningful and dynamic attributes of adolescent sexual relationships. Our objective was to examine whether variations in these STI-associated feelings and perceptions predicted incident Chlamydia trachomatis and/or Neisseriagonorrhoeae infection within a prospective cohort of urban adolescent women. A cohort of clinic-recruited women aged 16-19 completed daily surveys on feelings and risk perceptions about each current sex partner on a smartphone continuously for up to 18 months. Urine was tested for C. trachomatis and N. gonorrhoeae every 3 months. Daily responses were averaged across the week. As overall means for trust, closeness and commitment were high, data were coded to indicate any decrease in feelings from the previous week. PRSTD and PPC were reverse coded to indicate any increase from the previous week. An index was created to examine the cumulative effect of variation in these feelings and perceptions. Generalised linear models were used to account for correlation among repeated measures within relationships. For each week that there was a decrease in trust, there was a 45% increase in the risk of being infected with an STI at follow-up (relative risk (RR) 1.45, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.78, P=0.004). Neither a decrease in closeness or commitment, nor an increase in PRSTD or PPC was associated with an STI outcome. Cumulatively, the index measure indicated that a change in an additional feeling or perception over the week increased the odds of an STI by 14% (RR 1.14, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.29, P=0.026). A decrease in feelings of trust towards a main partner may be a more sensitive indicator of STI risk than PRSTD, PPC or commitment. The next generation of behavioural interventions for youth will need strategies to address feelings of intimacy within adolescent romantic relationships. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the

  4. The predictive value of treatment response using FDG PET performed on day 21 of chemoradiotherapy in patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. A prospective, multicentre study (RTEP3)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Palie, Odre; Vera, Pierre [Henri Becquerel Cancer Center and Rouen University Hospital, and QuantIF - LITIS (EA 4108), University of Rouen, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Rouen (France); Michel, Pierre; Di Fiore, Frederic [Rouen University Hospital and University of Rouen, Digestive Oncology Unit, Hepatogastroenterology Department, Rouen (France); Menard, Jean-Francois [Rouen University Hospital and University of Rouen, Department of Biostatistic, Rouen (France); Rousseau, Caroline; Bridji, Boumediene [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Renee Gauducheau Cancer Center, Nantes (France); Rio, Emmanuel [Department of Radiotherapy, Renee Gauducheau Cancer Center, Nantes (France); Benyoucef, Ahmed [Department of Radiotherapy, Henri Becquerel Cancer Center, Rouen (France); Meyer, Marc-Etienne [Amiens University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Amiens (France); Jalali, Khadija [Amiens University Hospital, Department of Radiotherapy, Amiens (France); Bardet, Stephane [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Francois Baclesse Cancer Center, Caen (France); M' Vondo, Che Mabubu [Department of radiotherapy, Francois Baclesse Cancer Center, Caen (France); Olivier, Pierre [Brabois University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Nancy (France); Faure, Guillaume [Department of Radiotherapy, Centre prive de Radiotherapie de Metz, Metz (France); Itti, Emmanuel [Henri Mondor University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Creteil (France); Diana, Christian [Henri Mondor University Hospital, Department of Radiotherapy, Creteil (France); Houzard, Claire [Department of Nuclear Medicine, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France); Mornex, Francoise [Department of Radiotherapy, Hospices Civils de Lyon, Lyon (France)

    2013-09-15

    FDG PET has been suggested to have predictive value in the prognosis of oesophageal carcinoma. However, the retrospective studies reported in the literature have shown discordant results. Additionally, only four studies have evaluated FDG PET during chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in patients with different histological lesions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the predictive value of FDG PET performed early during CRT (on day 21) in a population of patients with oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma. Included in this prospective study were 57 patients with a histological diagnosis of squamous cell carcinoma of the oesophagus. Of these 57 patients, 48 (84 %) were evaluated (aged 63 {+-} 11 years; 44 men, 4 women). Each patient underwent FDG PET (4.5 MBq/kg) before CRT, according to the Herskovic protocol (t0; PET{sub 1}) and on day 21 {+-} 3 from the start of CRT (d21; PET{sub 2}). The response assessment included a clinical examination, CT scan or FDG PET and histological analysis 3 months and 1 year after PET{sub 1}. The patients were classified as showing a complete response (CR) or a noncomplete response. A quantitative analysis was carried out for PET{sub 1} and PET{sub 2} using the following parameters: SUVmax, SUVmean (with SUVmean{sub 40} as the 3-D volume at an SUVmax threshold of 40 % and SUVmean{sub p} as that defined by a physician), tumour volume (TV, with TV{sub 40} defined as the TV at 40 % of SUVmax, and TV{sub p} as that defined by a physician); and the total lesion glycolysis (TLG, SUVmean x TV, with TLG{sub 40} defined as the TLG at 40 % of SUVmax, and TLG{sub p} as that defined by a physician). The differences in responses at 3 months and 1 year between PET{sub 1} (t0) and PET{sub 2} (d21) were assessed in terms of variations in SUV, TV and TLG using a repeated measures of variance (ANOVA). SUVmax, SUVmean and TLG decreased significantly between PET{sub 1} (t0) and PET{sub 2} (d21; p < 0.0001). The TV significantly decreased only when assessed

  5. The macrophage activation marker sCD163 combined with markers of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF) score predicts clinically significant portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sandahl, T D; McGrail, R; Møller, H J

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Noninvasive identification of significant portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis is needed in hepatology practice. AIM: To investigate whether the combination of sCD163 as a hepatic inflammation marker and the fibrosis markers of the Enhanced Liver Fibrosis score (ELF) can...... predict portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis. METHODS: We measured sCD163 and the ELF components (hyaluronic acid, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-1 and procollagen-III aminopeptide) in two separate cohorts of cirrhosis patients that underwent hepatic vein catheterisation. To test...... the predictive accuracy we developed a CD163-fibrosis portal hypertension score in an estimation cohort (n = 80) and validated the score in an independent cohort (n = 80). A HVPG ≥10 mmHg was considered clinically significant. RESULTS: Both sCD163 and the ELF components increased in a stepwise manner...

  6. A Japanese Stress Check Program screening tool predicts employee long-term sickness absence: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsutsumi, Akizumi; Shimazu, Akihito; Eguchi, Hisashi; Inoue, Akiomi; Kawakami, Norito

    2018-01-25

    On December 1, 2015, the Japanese government launched the Stress Check Program, a new occupational health policy to screen employees for high psychosocial stress in the workplace. As only weak evidence exists for the effectiveness of the program, we sought to estimate the risk of stress-associated long-term sickness absence as defined in the program manual. Participants were 7356 male and 7362 female employees in a financial service company who completed the Brief Job Stress Questionnaire (BJSQ). We followed them for 1 year and used company records to identify employees with sickness absence of 1 month or longer. We defined high-risk employees using the BJSQ and criteria recommended by the program manual. We used the Cox proportional regression model to evaluate the prospective association between stress and long-term sickness absence. During the follow-up period, we identified 34 male and 35 female employees who took long-term sickness absence. After adjustment for age, length of service, job type, position, and post-examination interview, hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for incident long-term sickness absence in high-stress employees were 6.59 (3.04-14.25) for men and 2.77 (1.32-5.83) for women. The corresponding population attributable risks for high stress were 23.8% (10.3-42.6) for men and 21.0% (4.6-42.1) for women. During the 1-year follow-up, employees identified as high stress (as defined by the Stress Check Program manual) had significantly elevated risks for long-term sickness absence.

  7. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irene R Faber

    Full Text Available Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years. Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05. Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%. Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%. This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  8. Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be

  9. Stable Versus Unstable Grade II High Ankle Sprains: A Prospective Study Predicting the Need for Surgical Stabilization and Time to Return to Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, James D; Bamford, Richard; Petrie, Aviva; McCollum, Graham A

    2016-04-01

    To investigate grade II syndesmosis injuries in athletes and identify factors important in differentiating stable from dynamically unstable ankle sprains and those associated with a longer time to return to sports. Sixty-four athletes with an isolated syndesmosis injury (without fracture) were prospectively assessed, with a mean follow-up period of 37 months (range, 24 to 66 months). Those with an associated deltoid ligament injury or osteochondral lesion were included. Those whose injuries were considered stable (grade IIa) were treated conservatively with a boot and rehabilitation. Those whose injuries were clinically unstable underwent arthroscopy, and if instability was confirmed (grade IIb), the syndesmosis was stabilized. Clinical and magnetic resonance imaging assessments of injury to individual ligaments were recorded, along with time to return to play. A power analysis estimated that each group would need 28 patients. All athletes returned to the same level of professional sport. The 28 patients with grade IIa injuries returned at a mean of 45 days (range, 23 to 63 days) compared with 64 days (range, 27 to 104 days) for those with grade IIb injuries (P < .0001). There was a highly significant relationship between clinical and magnetic resonance imaging assessments of ligament injury (anterior tibiofibular ligament [ATFL], anterior-inferior tibiofibular ligament [AITFL], and deltoid ligament, P < .0001). Instability was 9.5 times as likely with a positive squeeze test and 11 times as likely with a deltoid injury. Combined injury to the anterior-inferior tibiofibular ligament and deltoid ligament was associated with a delay in return to sports. Concomitant injury to the ATFL indicated a different mechanism of injury-the syndesmosis is less likely to be unstable and is associated with an earlier return to sports. A positive squeeze test and injury to the ATFL and deltoid ligament are important factors in differentiating stable from dynamically unstable grade

  10. Sub-seasonal prediction of significant wave heights over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans, part II: The impact of ENSO and MJO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Ravi P.; Kinter, James L.; Shin, Chul-Su

    2018-03-01

    This study evaluates the effect of El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) events on 14-day mean significant wave height (SWH) at 3 weeks lead time (Wk34) over the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). The WAVEWATCH-3 (WW3) model is forced with daily 10m-winds predicted by a modified version of CFSv2 that is initialized with multiple ocean analyses in both January and May for 1979-2008. A significant anomaly correlation of predicted and observed SWH anomalies (SWHA) at Wk34 lead-time is found over portions of the domain, including the central western Pacific, South China Sea (SCS), Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Indian Ocean (IO) in January cases, and over BOB, equatorial western Pacific, the Maritime Continent and southern IO in May cases. The model successfully predicts almost all the important features of the observed composite SWHA during El Niño events in January, including negative SWHA in the central IO where westerly wind anomalies act on an easterly mean state, and positive SWHA over the southern Ocean (SO) where westerly wind anomalies act on a westerly mean state. The model successfully predicts the sign and magnitude of SWHA at Wk34 lead-time in May over the BOB and SCS in composites of combined phases-2-3 and phases-6-7 of MJO. The observed leading mode of SWHA in May and the third mode of SWHA in January are influenced by the combined effects of ENSO and MJO. Based on spatial and temporal correlations, the spatial patterns of SWHA in the model at Wk34 in both January and May are in good agreement with the observations over the equatorial western Pacific, equatorial and southern IO, and SO.

  11. Biomarkers of Host Response Predict Primary End-Point Radiological Pneumonia in Tanzanian Children with Clinical Pneumonia: A Prospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura K Erdman

    Full Text Available Diagnosing pediatric pneumonia is challenging in low-resource settings. The World Health Organization (WHO has defined primary end-point radiological pneumonia for use in epidemiological and vaccine studies. However, radiography requires expertise and is often inaccessible. We hypothesized that plasma biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial activation may be useful surrogates for end-point pneumonia, and may provide insight into its biological significance.We studied children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia (n = 155 within a prospective cohort of 1,005 consecutive febrile children presenting to Tanzanian outpatient clinics. Based on x-ray findings, participants were categorized as primary end-point pneumonia (n = 30, other infiltrates (n = 31, or normal chest x-ray (n = 94. Plasma levels of 7 host response biomarkers at presentation were measured by ELISA. Associations between biomarker levels and radiological findings were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis test and multivariable logistic regression. Biomarker ability to predict radiological findings was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Classification and Regression Tree analysis.Compared to children with normal x-ray, children with end-point pneumonia had significantly higher C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and Chitinase 3-like-1, while those with other infiltrates had elevated procalcitonin and von Willebrand Factor and decreased soluble Tie-2 and endoglin. Clinical variables were not predictive of radiological findings. Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated multi-marker models with improved performance over single markers for discriminating between groups. A model based on C-reactive protein and Chitinase 3-like-1 discriminated between end-point pneumonia and non-end-point pneumonia with 93.3% sensitivity (95% confidence interval 76.5-98.8, 80.8% specificity (72.6-87.1, positive likelihood ratio 4.9 (3.4-7.1, negative likelihood ratio 0

  12. Biomarkers of Host Response Predict Primary End-Point Radiological Pneumonia in Tanzanian Children with Clinical Pneumonia: A Prospective Cohort Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erdman, Laura K.; D’Acremont, Valérie; Hayford, Kyla; Kilowoko, Mary; Kyungu, Esther; Hongoa, Philipina; Alamo, Leonor; Streiner, David L.; Genton, Blaise; Kain, Kevin C.

    2015-01-01

    Background Diagnosing pediatric pneumonia is challenging in low-resource settings. The World Health Organization (WHO) has defined primary end-point radiological pneumonia for use in epidemiological and vaccine studies. However, radiography requires expertise and is often inaccessible. We hypothesized that plasma biomarkers of inflammation and endothelial activation may be useful surrogates for end-point pneumonia, and may provide insight into its biological significance. Methods We studied children with WHO-defined clinical pneumonia (n = 155) within a prospective cohort of 1,005 consecutive febrile children presenting to Tanzanian outpatient clinics. Based on x-ray findings, participants were categorized as primary end-point pneumonia (n = 30), other infiltrates (n = 31), or normal chest x-ray (n = 94). Plasma levels of 7 host response biomarkers at presentation were measured by ELISA. Associations between biomarker levels and radiological findings were assessed by Kruskal-Wallis test and multivariable logistic regression. Biomarker ability to predict radiological findings was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and Classification and Regression Tree analysis. Results Compared to children with normal x-ray, children with end-point pneumonia had significantly higher C-reactive protein, procalcitonin and Chitinase 3-like-1, while those with other infiltrates had elevated procalcitonin and von Willebrand Factor and decreased soluble Tie-2 and endoglin. Clinical variables were not predictive of radiological findings. Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated multi-marker models with improved performance over single markers for discriminating between groups. A model based on C-reactive protein and Chitinase 3-like-1 discriminated between end-point pneumonia and non-end-point pneumonia with 93.3% sensitivity (95% confidence interval 76.5–98.8), 80.8% specificity (72.6–87.1), positive likelihood ratio 4.9 (3.4–7

  13. Validation of three noninvasive laboratory variables to predict significant fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ado, Ayman A.; Al-Swat, Khalid; Azzam, N.; Al-Faleh, Faleh; Ahmed, S.

    2007-01-01

    We tested the clinical utility of the platelet count, aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio, and the AST to platelet ratio index (APRI) score in predicting the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis and cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C in Saudi Arabia. Liver biopsy procedures performed on chronic hepatitis C patients in our gastroenterology unit at King Khalid University Hospital were traced form records between 1998 to 2003. The hospital computer database was then accessed and detailed laboratory parameters obtained. By plotting receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC), three selected models (platelet count, AST/ALT ratio and the APRI score) were compared in terms of the best variable to predict significant fibrosis. Two hundred and forty-six patients with hepatitis C were included in this analysis. Overall, 26% of patients had advanced fibrosis. When comparing the three above mentioned prediction models, APRI score was the one associated with the highest area under the curve (AUC) = 0.812 (95%Cl, 0.756-0.868) on the ROC curves, compared to the platelet count and AST/ALT ratio, which yielded an AUC of 0.783 (0.711-0.855) and 0.716 (0.642-0.789), respectively. The APRI score seemed to be the best predictive variable for the presence or absence of advanced fibrosis in Saudi hepatitis C patients. (author)

  14. Clinical significance of condylar chondromalacia after arthroscopic resection of flap-tears of the medial meniscus. A prospective study of 93 cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aune, A K; Madsen, J E; Moen, H

    1995-01-01

    We describe the results after arthroscopic resection of flap-tears of the medial meniscus posterior horn in 93 patients with (40) or without (53) chondromalacia of the adjacent condylar cartilage at the time of operation. These were 93 consecutive patients presenting with medial flap-tears during the period 1988-1990 in our departments. The follow-up averaged 42 (range 26-50) months. There was a significant difference in the functional results at review depending on the presence or absence of condylar chondromalacia at arthroscopy. Among the 40 patients with chondromalacia, the Lysholm score was significantly lower (P chondromalacia with age (P < 0.001). In conclusion, the presence of minor degenerative changes in the articular cartilage adjacent to meniscal flap-tears correlated with a less favourable outcome.

  15. Does Liposomal Bupivacaine (Exparel) Significantly Reduce Postoperative Pain/Numbness in Symptomatic Teeth with a Diagnosis of Necrosis? A Prospective, Randomized, Double-blind Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn, Brandon; Drum, Melissa; Reader, Al; Fowler, Sara; Nusstein, John; Beck, Mike

    2016-09-01

    Medical studies have shown some potential for infiltrations of liposomal bupivacaine (Exparel; Pacira Pharmaceuticals, San Diego, CA), a slow-release bupivacaine solution, to extend postoperative benefits of numbness/pain relief for up to several days. Because the Food and Drug Administration has approved Exparel only for infiltrations, we wanted to evaluate if it would be effective as an infiltration to control postoperative pain. The purpose of this study was to compare an infiltration of bupivacaine with liposomal bupivacaine for postoperative numbness and pain in symptomatic patients diagnosed with pulpal necrosis experiencing moderate to severe preoperative pain. One hundred patients randomly received a 4.0-mL buccal infiltration of either bupivacaine or liposomal bupivacaine after endodontic debridement. For postoperative pain, patients were given ibuprofen/acetaminophen, and they could receive narcotic pain medication as an escape. Patients recorded their level of numbness, pain, and medication use the night of the appointment and over the next 5 days. Success was defined as no or mild postoperative pain and no narcotic use. The success rate was 29% for the liposomal group and 22% for the bupivacaine group, with no significant difference (P = .4684) between the groups. Liposomal bupivacaine had some effect on soft tissue numbness, pain, and use of non-narcotic medications, but it was not clinically significant. There was no significant difference in the need for escape medication. For symptomatic patients diagnosed with pulpal necrosis experiencing moderate to severe preoperative pain, a 4.0-mL infiltration of liposomal bupivacaine did not result in a statistically significant increase in postoperative success compared with an infiltration of 4.0 mL bupivacaine. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Endodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Predicting Outcome and Therapy Response in mCRC Patients Using an Indirect Method for CTCs Detection by a Multigene Expression Panel: A Multicentric Prospective Validation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yolanda Vidal Insua

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Colorectal cancer (CRC is one of the major causes of cancer-related deaths. Early detection of tumor relapse is crucial for determining the most appropriate therapeutic management. In clinical practice, computed tomography (CT is routinely used, but small tumor changes are difficult to visualize, and reliable blood-based prognostic and monitoring biomarkers are urgently needed. The aim of this study was to prospectively validate a gene expression panel (composed of GAPDH, VIL1, CLU, TIMP1, TLN1, LOXL3 and ZEB2 for detecting circulating tumor cells (CTCs as prognostic and predictive tool in blood samples from 94 metastatic CRC (mCRC patients. Patients with higher gene panel expression before treatment had a reduced progression-free survival (PFS and overall-survival (OS rates compared with patients with low expression (p = 0.003 and p ≤ 0.001, respectively. Patients with increased expression of CTCs markers during treatment presented PFS and OS times of 8.95 and 11.74 months, respectively, compared with 14.41 and 24.7 for patients presenting decreased expression (PFS; p = 0.020; OS; p ≤ 0.001. Patients classified as non-responders by CTCs with treatment, but classified as responders by CT scan, showed significantly shorter survival times (PFS: 8.53 vs. 11.70; OS: 10.37 vs. 24.13; months. In conclusion, our CTCs detection panel demonstrated efficacy for early treatment response assessment in mCRC patients, and with increased reliability compared to CT scan.

  17. U.S. contribution of section A.3. The significance of long-term supply and energy sufficiency prospects offered by fast breeders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-10-01

    Costs involved in breeder deployment are identified and analyzed, i.e., high breeder capital costs, fuel cycle costs, research and development costs and discount rates. It is pointed out that while there are potential benefits to be derived from future application of fast breeders, there are also significant costs and other factors requiring consideration. Careful country-specific analyses are needed. Such analyses may conclude for example that although breeders could become economical in less highly industrialized nations, such nations may find it more economical and practical to purchase reprocessing services from existing large commercial size plants rather than deploy their own small scale reprocessing plants

  18. Prognostic Significance of Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 in Unresectable Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Treated With Dose-Escalated Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy and Concurrent Full-Dose Gemcitabine: Analysis of a Prospective Phase 1/2 Dose Escalation Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vainshtein, Jeffrey M.; Schipper, Matthew; Zalupski, Mark M.; Lawrence, Theodore S.; Abrams, Ross; Francis, Isaac R.; Khan, Gazala; Leslie, William; Ben-Josef, Edgar

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: Although established in the postresection setting, the prognostic value of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) is less clear. We examined the prognostic utility of CA19-9 in patients with unresectable LAPC treated on a prospective trial of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) dose escalation with concurrent gemcitabine. Methods and Materials: Forty-six patients with unresectable LAPC were treated at the University of Michigan on a phase 1/2 trial of IMRT dose escalation with concurrent gemcitabine. CA19-9 was obtained at baseline and during routine follow-up. Cox models were used to assess the effect of baseline factors on freedom from local progression (FFLP), distant progression (FFDP), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Stepwise forward regression was used to build multivariate predictive models for each endpoint. Results: Thirty-eight patients were eligible for the present analysis. On univariate analysis, baseline CA19-9 and age predicted OS, CA19-9 at baseline and 3 months predicted PFS, gross tumor volume (GTV) and black race predicted FFLP, and CA19-9 at 3 months predicted FFDP. On stepwise multivariate regression modeling, baseline CA19-9, age, and female sex predicted OS; baseline CA19-9 and female sex predicted both PFS and FFDP; and GTV predicted FFLP. Patients with baseline CA19-9 ≤90 U/mL had improved OS (median 23.0 vs 11.1 months, HR 2.88, P<.01) and PFS (14.4 vs 7.0 months, HR 3.61, P=.001). CA19-9 progression over 90 U/mL was prognostic for both OS (HR 3.65, P=.001) and PFS (HR 3.04, P=.001), and it was a stronger predictor of death than either local progression (HR 1.46, P=.42) or distant progression (HR 3.31, P=.004). Conclusions: In patients with unresectable LAPC undergoing definitive chemoradiation therapy, baseline CA19-9 was independently prognostic even after established prognostic factors were controlled for, whereas CA19-9 progression

  19. Prognostic Significance of Carbohydrate Antigen 19-9 in Unresectable Locally Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Treated With Dose-Escalated Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy and Concurrent Full-Dose Gemcitabine: Analysis of a Prospective Phase 1/2 Dose Escalation Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vainshtein, Jeffrey M., E-mail: jvainsh@med.umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Schipper, Matthew [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Zalupski, Mark M. [Division of Hematology Oncology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Lawrence, Theodore S. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Abrams, Ross [Department of Radiation Oncology, Rush Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Francis, Isaac R. [Department of Radiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Khan, Gazala [Division of Hematology Oncology, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Leslie, William [Division of Hematology Oncology, Department of Internal Medicine, Rush Medical Center, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Ben-Josef, Edgar [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2013-05-01

    Purpose: Although established in the postresection setting, the prognostic value of carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) in unresectable locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) is less clear. We examined the prognostic utility of CA19-9 in patients with unresectable LAPC treated on a prospective trial of intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) dose escalation with concurrent gemcitabine. Methods and Materials: Forty-six patients with unresectable LAPC were treated at the University of Michigan on a phase 1/2 trial of IMRT dose escalation with concurrent gemcitabine. CA19-9 was obtained at baseline and during routine follow-up. Cox models were used to assess the effect of baseline factors on freedom from local progression (FFLP), distant progression (FFDP), progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Stepwise forward regression was used to build multivariate predictive models for each endpoint. Results: Thirty-eight patients were eligible for the present analysis. On univariate analysis, baseline CA19-9 and age predicted OS, CA19-9 at baseline and 3 months predicted PFS, gross tumor volume (GTV) and black race predicted FFLP, and CA19-9 at 3 months predicted FFDP. On stepwise multivariate regression modeling, baseline CA19-9, age, and female sex predicted OS; baseline CA19-9 and female sex predicted both PFS and FFDP; and GTV predicted FFLP. Patients with baseline CA19-9 ≤90 U/mL had improved OS (median 23.0 vs 11.1 months, HR 2.88, P<.01) and PFS (14.4 vs 7.0 months, HR 3.61, P=.001). CA19-9 progression over 90 U/mL was prognostic for both OS (HR 3.65, P=.001) and PFS (HR 3.04, P=.001), and it was a stronger predictor of death than either local progression (HR 1.46, P=.42) or distant progression (HR 3.31, P=.004). Conclusions: In patients with unresectable LAPC undergoing definitive chemoradiation therapy, baseline CA19-9 was independently prognostic even after established prognostic factors were controlled for, whereas CA19-9 progression

  20. Combined use of hyperbaric and hypobaric ropivacaine significantly improves hemodynamic characteristics in spinal anesthesia for caesarean section: a prospective, double-blind, randomized, controlled study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZheFeng Quan

    Full Text Available To observe the hemodynamic changes of parturients in the combined use of hyperbaric (4 mg and hypobaric (6 mg ropivacaine during spinal anesthesia for caesarean section in this randomized double-blind study.Parturients (n = 136 undergoing elective cesarean delivery were randomly and equally allocated to receive either combined hyperbaric and hypobaric ropivacaine (Group A or hyperbaric ropivacaine (Group B. Outcome measures were: hemodynamic characteristics, maximum height of sensory block, time to achieve T8 sensory blockade level, incidence of complications, Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min, and neonatal blood gas analysis.Group A had a lower level of sensory blockade (T6 [T6-T7] and longer time to achieve T8 sensory blockade level (8 ± 1.3 min than did patients in Group B (T3 [T2-T4] and 5 ± 1.0 min, respectively; P < 0.001, both. The incidence rates for hypotension, nausea, and vomiting were significantly lower in Group A (13%, 10%, and 3%, respectively than Group B (66%, 31%, and 13%; P < 0.001, P = 0.003, P = 0.028.Combined use of hyperbaric (4 mg and hypobaric (6 mg ropivacaine significantly decreased the incidences of hypotension and complications in spinal anesthesia for caesarean section by extending induction time and decreasing the level of sensory blockade.Chinese Clinical Trial Register ChiCTR-TRC-13004622.

  1. A Multi-Center Prospective Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Tool for Severe Clostridium difficile Infection.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Na, Xi

    2015-04-23

    Prediction of severe clinical outcomes in Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is important to inform management decisions for optimum patient care. Currently, treatment recommendations for CDI vary based on disease severity but validated methods to predict severe disease are lacking. The aim of the study was to derive and validate a clinical prediction tool for severe outcomes in CDI.

  2. Predicting ecstasy use among young people at risk: a prospective study of initially ecstasy-naive subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervaeke, H.K.E.; Benschop, A.; van den Brink, W.; Korf, D.J.

    2008-01-01

    Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged ≥ 18 who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy in

  3. Predicting ecstasy use among young people at risk: a prospective study of initially ecstasy-naive subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervaeke, Hylke K. E.; Benschop, Annemieke; van den Brink, Wim; Korf, Dirk J.

    2008-01-01

    Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged > or = 18 who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy

  4. Predicting Ecstasy Use among Young People at Risk: A Prospective Study of Initially Ecstasy-Naive Subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vervaeke, Hylke K.E.; Benschop, Annemieke; Van Den Brink, Wim; Korf, Dirk J.

    2008-01-01

    Our aim is to identify predictors of first-time ecstasy use in a prospective study among young people at risk. As part of the multidisciplinary Netherlands XTC Toxicity Study (NeXT), we monitored 188 subjects aged up to 18 years who were ecstasy-naive at baseline but seemed likely to start taking ecstasy in the near future. After an 11- to…

  5. Use of stance time variability for predicting mobility disability in community-dwelling older persons: a prospective study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brach, J.S.; Wert, D.; Swearingen, J.M. van; Newman, A.B.; Studenski, S.A.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Mobility disability is a serious and frequent adverse health outcome associated with aging. Early identification of individuals at risk for mobility disability is important if interventions to prevent disability are to be instituted. The objectives of this prospective study

  6. Interaction of 5-HTTLPR and Idiographic Stressors Predicts Prospective Depressive Symptoms Specifically among Youth in a Multiwave Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hankin, Benjamin L.; Jenness, Jessica; Abela, John R. Z.; Smolen, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    5-HTTLPR, episodic stressors, depressive and anxious symptoms were assessed prospectively (child and parent report) every 3 months over 1 year (5 waves of data) among community youth ages 9 to 15 (n = 220). Lagged hierarchical linear modeling analyses showed 5-HTTLPR interacted with idiographic stressors (increases relative to the child's own…

  7. Population Muscle Strength Predicts Olympic Medal Tallies: Evidence from 20 Countries in the PURE Prospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darryl P Leong

    Full Text Available National sporting achievement at the Olympic Games is important for national pride and prestige, and to promote participation in sport. Summer Olympic Games medal tallies have been associated with national wealth, and also social development and healthcare expenditure. It is uncertain however, how these socioeconomic factors translate into Olympic success. The objective of this study was therefore to examine the relationship between population muscle strength and Olympic medal tallies.This study of handgrip strength represents a cross-sectional analysis of the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE study, which is an ongoing population cohort study of individuals from high-, middle-, and low-income countries. Within participating countries, households from both urban and rural communities were invited to participate using a sampling strategy intended to yield a sample that was representative of the community. Households were eligible if at least one member was aged 35-70 years and if they intended living at the same address for a further four years. A total of 152,610 participants from these households, located in 21 countries, were included in this analysis. Handgrip strength was measured using a Jamar dynanometer. Olympic medal tallies were made over the five most recent Summer Games. There was a significant positive association between national population grip strength (GS and medal tally that persisted after adjustment for sex, age, height, average daily caloric intake and GDP (total and per capita. For every 1kg increase in population GS, the medal tally increased by 36% (95% CI 13-65%, p = 0.001 after adjustment. Among countries that won at least one medal over the four most recent Summer Olympic Games, there was a close linear relationship between adjusted GS and the natural logarithm of the per capita medal tally (adjusted r = 0.74, p = 0.002.Population muscle strength may be an important determinant of Summer Olympic Games medal

  8. Predicting students' physical activity and health-related well-being: a prospective cross-domain investigation of motivation across school physical education and exercise settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standage, Martyn; Gillison, Fiona B; Ntoumanis, Nikos; Treasure, Darren C

    2012-02-01

    A three-wave prospective design was used to assess a model of motivation guided by self-determination theory (Ryan & Deci, 2008) spanning the contexts of school physical education (PE) and exercise. The outcome variables examined were health-related quality of life (HRQoL), physical self-concept (PSC), and 4 days of objectively assessed estimates of activity. Secondary school students (n = 494) completed questionnaires at three separate time points and were familiarized with how to use a sealed pedometer. Results of structural equation modeling supported a model in which perceptions of autonomy support from a PE teacher positively predicted PE-related need satisfaction (autonomy, competence, and relatedness). Competence predicted PSC, whereas relatedness predicted HRQoL. Autonomy and competence positively predicted autonomous motivation toward PE, which in turn positively predicted autonomous motivation toward exercise (i.e., 4-day pedometer step count). Autonomous motivation toward exercise positively predicted step count, HRQoL, and PSC. Results of multisample structural equation modeling supported gender invariance. Suggestions for future work are discussed.

  9. Application of neural networks and its prospect. 4. Prediction of major disruptions in tokamak plasmas, analyses of time series data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoshino, Ryuji

    2006-01-01

    Disruption prediction of tokamak plasma has been studied by neural network. The disruption prediction performances by neural network are estimated by the prediction success rate, false alarm rate, and time prior to disruption. The current driving type disruption is predicted by time series data, and plasma lifetime, risk of disruption and plasma stability. Some disruptions generated by density limit, impurity mixture, error magnetic field can be predicted 100 % of prediction success rate by the premonitory symptoms. The pressure driving type disruption phenomena generate some hundred micro seconds before, so that the operation limits such as β N limit of DIII-D and density limit of ADITYA were investigated. The false alarm rate was decreased by β N limit training under stable discharge. The pressure driving disruption generated with increasing plasma pressure can be predicted about 90 % by evaluating plasma stability. (S.Y.)

  10. Combined use of hyperbaric and hypobaric ropivacaine significantly improves hemodynamic characteristics in spinal anesthesia for caesarean section: a prospective, double-blind, randomized, controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, ZheFeng; Tian, Ming; Chi, Ping; Li, Xin; He, HaiLi; Luo, Chao

    2015-01-01

    To observe the hemodynamic changes of parturients in the combined use of hyperbaric (4 mg) and hypobaric (6 mg) ropivacaine during spinal anesthesia for caesarean section in this randomized double-blind study. Parturients (n = 136) undergoing elective cesarean delivery were randomly and equally allocated to receive either combined hyperbaric and hypobaric ropivacaine (Group A) or hyperbaric ropivacaine (Group B). Outcome measures were: hemodynamic characteristics, maximum height of sensory block, time to achieve T8 sensory blockade level, incidence of complications, Apgar scores at 1 and 5 min, and neonatal blood gas analysis. Group A had a lower level of sensory blockade (T6 [T6-T7]) and longer time to achieve T8 sensory blockade level (8 ± 1.3 min) than did patients in Group B (T3 [T2-T4] and 5 ± 1.0 min, respectively; P hyperbaric (4 mg) and hypobaric (6 mg) ropivacaine significantly decreased the incidences of hypotension and complications in spinal anesthesia for caesarean section by extending induction time and decreasing the level of sensory blockade. Chinese Clinical Trial Register ChiCTR-TRC-13004622.

  11. Prospective validation of American Diabetes Association risk tool for predicting pre-diabetes and diabetes in Taiwan-Taichung community health study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Ing Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A simple diabetes risk tool that does not require laboratory tests would be beneficial in screening individuals at higher risk. Few studies have evaluated the ability of these tools to identify new cases of pre-diabetes. This study aimed to assess the ability of the American Diabetes Association Risk Tool (ADART to predict the 3-year incidence of pre-diabetes and diabetes in Taiwanese. METHODS: This was a 3-year prospective study of 1021 residents with normoglycemia at baseline, gathered from a random sample of residents aged 40-88 years in a metropolitan city in Taiwan. The areas under the curve (AUCs of three models were compared: ADART only, ADART plus lifestyle behaviors at baseline, and ADART plus lifestyle behaviors and biomarkers at baseline. The performance of ADART was compared with that of 16 tools that had been reported in the literature. RESULTS: The AUCs and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs were 0.60 (0.54-0.66 for men and 0.72 (0.66-0.77 for women in model 1; 0.62 (0.56-0.68 for men and 0.74 (0.68-0.80 for women in model 2; and 0.64 (0.58-0.71 for men and 0.75 (0.69-0.80 for women in model 3. The AUCs of these three models were all above 0.7 in women, but not in men. No significant difference in either women or men (p = 0.268 and 0.156, respectively was observed in the AUC of these three models. Compared to 16 tools published in the literature, ADART had the second largest AUC in both men and women. CONCLUSIONS: ADART is a good screening tool for predicting the three-year incidence of pre-diabetes and diabetes in females of a Taiwanese population. The performance of ADART in men was similar to the results with other tools published in the literature. Its performance was one of the best among the tools reported in the literature.

  12. Mid-Treatment Sleep Duration Predicts Clinically Significant Knee Osteoarthritis Pain reduction at 6 months: Effects From a Behavioral Sleep Medicine Clinical Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salwen, Jessica K; Smith, Michael T; Finan, Patrick H

    2017-02-01

    To determine the relative influence of sleep continuity (sleep efficiency, sleep onset latency, total sleep time [TST], and wake after sleep onset) on clinical pain outcomes within a trial of cognitive behavioral therapy for insomnia (CBT-I) for patients with comorbid knee osteoarthritis and insomnia. Secondary analyses were performed on data from 74 patients with comorbid insomnia and knee osteoarthritis who completed a randomized clinical trial of 8-session multicomponent CBT-I versus an active behavioral desensitization control condition (BD), including a 6-month follow-up assessment. Data used herein include daily diaries of sleep parameters, actigraphy data, and self-report questionnaires administered at specific time points. Patients who reported at least 30% improvement in self-reported pain from baseline to 6-month follow-up were considered responders (N = 31). Pain responders and nonresponders did not differ significantly at baseline across any sleep continuity measures. At mid-treatment, only TST predicted pain response via t tests and logistic regression, whereas other measures of sleep continuity were nonsignificant. Recursive partitioning analyses identified a minimum cut-point of 382 min of TST achieved at mid-treatment in order to best predict pain improvements 6-month posttreatment. Actigraphy results followed the same pattern as daily diary-based results. Clinically significant pain reductions in response to both CBT-I and BD were optimally predicted by achieving approximately 6.5 hr sleep duration by mid-treatment. Thus, tailoring interventions to increase TST early in treatment may be an effective strategy to promote long-term pain reductions. More comprehensive research on components of behavioral sleep medicine treatments that contribute to pain response is warranted. © Sleep Research Society 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Sleep Research Society. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Linking Compositional and Functional Predictions to Decipher the Biogeochemical Significance in DFAA Turnover of Abundant Bacterioplankton Lineages in the North Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernd Wemheuer

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Deciphering the ecological traits of abundant marine bacteria is a major challenge in marine microbial ecology. In the current study, we linked compositional and functional predictions to elucidate such traits for abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea. For this purpose, we investigated entire and active bacterioplankton composition along a transect ranging from the German Bight to the northern North Sea by pyrotag sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes and transcripts. Functional profiles were inferred from 16S rRNA data using Tax4Fun. Bacterioplankton communities were dominated by well-known marine lineages including clusters/genera that are affiliated with the Roseobacter group and the Flavobacteria. Variations in community composition and function were significantly explained by measured environmental and microbial properties. Turnover of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA showed the strongest correlation to community composition and function. We applied multinomial models, which enabled us to identify bacterial lineages involved in DFAA turnover. For instance, the genus Planktomarina was more abundant at higher DFAA turnover rates, suggesting its vital role in amino acid degradation. Functional predictions further indicated that Planktomarina is involved in leucine and isoleucine degradation. Overall, our results provide novel insights into the biogeochemical significance of abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea.

  14. Linking Compositional and Functional Predictions to Decipher the Biogeochemical Significance in DFAA Turnover of Abundant Bacterioplankton Lineages in the North Sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wemheuer, Bernd; Wemheuer, Franziska; Meier, Dimitri; Billerbeck, Sara; Giebel, Helge-Ansgar; Simon, Meinhard; Scherber, Christoph; Daniel, Rolf

    2017-11-05

    Deciphering the ecological traits of abundant marine bacteria is a major challenge in marine microbial ecology. In the current study, we linked compositional and functional predictions to elucidate such traits for abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea. For this purpose, we investigated entire and active bacterioplankton composition along a transect ranging from the German Bight to the northern North Sea by pyrotag sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA genes and transcripts. Functional profiles were inferred from 16S rRNA data using Tax4Fun. Bacterioplankton communities were dominated by well-known marine lineages including clusters/genera that are affiliated with the Roseobacter group and the Flavobacteria . Variations in community composition and function were significantly explained by measured environmental and microbial properties. Turnover of dissolved free amino acids (DFAA) showed the strongest correlation to community composition and function. We applied multinomial models, which enabled us to identify bacterial lineages involved in DFAA turnover. For instance, the genus Planktomarina was more abundant at higher DFAA turnover rates, suggesting its vital role in amino acid degradation. Functional predictions further indicated that Planktomarina is involved in leucine and isoleucine degradation. Overall, our results provide novel insights into the biogeochemical significance of abundant bacterioplankton lineages in the North Sea.

  15. First Trimester Urine and Serum Metabolomics for Prediction of Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension: A Prospective Screening Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie Austdal

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia, are major contributors to maternal morbidity. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of metabolomics to predict preeclampsia and gestational hypertension from urine and serum samples in early pregnancy, and elucidate the metabolic changes related to the diseases. Metabolic profiles were obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of serum and urine samples from 599 women at medium to high risk of preeclampsia (nulliparous or previous preeclampsia/gestational hypertension. Preeclampsia developed in 26 (4.3% and gestational hypertension in 21 (3.5% women. Multivariate analyses of the metabolic profiles were performed to establish prediction models for the hypertensive disorders individually and combined. Urinary metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 51.3% and 40% sensitivity, respectively, at 10% false positive rate, with hippurate as the most important metabolite for the prediction. Serum metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 15% and 33% sensitivity, respectively, with increased lipid levels and an atherogenic lipid profile as most important for the prediction. Combining maternal characteristics with the urinary hippurate/creatinine level improved the prediction rates of preeclampsia in a logistic regression model. The study indicates a potential future role of clinical importance for metabolomic analysis of urine in prediction of preeclampsia.

  16. First Trimester Urine and Serum Metabolomics for Prediction of Preeclampsia and Gestational Hypertension: A Prospective Screening Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austdal, Marie; Tangerås, Line H; Skråstad, Ragnhild B; Salvesen, Kjell; Austgulen, Rigmor; Iversen, Ann-Charlotte; Bathen, Tone F

    2015-09-08

    Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy, including preeclampsia, are major contributors to maternal morbidity. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of metabolomics to predict preeclampsia and gestational hypertension from urine and serum samples in early pregnancy, and elucidate the metabolic changes related to the diseases. Metabolic profiles were obtained by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy of serum and urine samples from 599 women at medium to high risk of preeclampsia (nulliparous or previous preeclampsia/gestational hypertension). Preeclampsia developed in 26 (4.3%) and gestational hypertension in 21 (3.5%) women. Multivariate analyses of the metabolic profiles were performed to establish prediction models for the hypertensive disorders individually and combined. Urinary metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 51.3% and 40% sensitivity, respectively, at 10% false positive rate, with hippurate as the most important metabolite for the prediction. Serum metabolomic profiles predicted preeclampsia and gestational hypertension at 15% and 33% sensitivity, respectively, with increased lipid levels and an atherogenic lipid profile as most important for the prediction. Combining maternal characteristics with the urinary hippurate/creatinine level improved the prediction rates of preeclampsia in a logistic regression model. The study indicates a potential future role of clinical importance for metabolomic analysis of urine in prediction of preeclampsia.

  17. Comparison of the significance of the RENAL, PADUA, and C-index nephrometric scales for the prediction of the complexity of laparoscopic nephrectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. G. Alyaev

    2018-01-01

    time, extent of intraoperative blood loss and possibility of development after complications (p = 0.049; 0.028; 0.046. None of indices were significant for multivariant analysis of prognosis the duration of laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. The indices  of the RENAL (p = 0.032 and C-index (p = 0.040 nephrometry score systems were significant for univariate analysis of prognosis the duration of the laparoscopic partial nephrectomy.Conclusion. The usage of RENAL, PADUA, C-index nephrometry score systems is useful for the prediction of warm ischaemic time, extent  of blood loss, duration of operative measure and possibility of rate of postoperative complications at laparoscopic partial nephrectomy. According to our data the index of RENAL nephrometry scoring system has the highest predictive value. Applications of 3D modelling for counting nephrometry indices in preoperative period makes the process of counting balls easier on all three nephrometry score systems.

  18. Prospects of Genomic Prediction in the USDA Soybean Germplasm Collection: Historical Data Creates Robust Models for Enhancing Selection of Accessions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Jarquin

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The identification and mobilization of useful genetic variation from germplasm banks for use in breeding programs is critical for future genetic gain and protection against crop pests. Plummeting costs of next-generation sequencing and genotyping is revolutionizing the way in which researchers and breeders interface with plant germplasm collections. An example of this is the high density genotyping of the entire USDA Soybean Germplasm Collection. We assessed the usefulness of 50K single nucleotide polymorphism data collected on 18,480 domesticated soybean (Glycine max accessions and vast historical phenotypic data for developing genomic prediction models for protein, oil, and yield. Resulting genomic prediction models explained an appreciable amount of the variation in accession performance in independent validation trials, with correlations between predicted and observed reaching up to 0.92 for oil and protein and 0.79 for yield. The optimization of training set design was explored using a series of cross-validation schemes. It was found that the target population and environment need to be well represented in the training set. Second, genomic prediction training sets appear to be robust to the presence of data from diverse geographical locations and genetic clusters. This finding, however, depends on the influence of shattering and lodging, and may be specific to soybean with its presence of maturity groups. The distribution of 7608 nonphenotyped accessions was examined through the application of genomic prediction models. The distribution of predictions of phenotyped accessions was representative of the distribution of predictions for nonphenotyped accessions, with no nonphenotyped accessions being predicted to fall far outside the range of predictions of phenotyped accessions.

  19. A proposal for a pharmacokinetic interaction significance classification system (PISCS) based on predicted drug exposure changes and its potential application to alert classifications in product labelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hisaka, Akihiro; Kusama, Makiko; Ohno, Yoshiyuki; Sugiyama, Yuichi; Suzuki, Hiroshi

    2009-01-01

    Pharmacokinetic drug-drug interactions (DDIs) are one of the major causes of adverse events in pharmacotherapy, and systematic prediction of the clinical relevance of DDIs is an issue of significant clinical importance. In a previous study, total exposure changes of many substrate drugs of cytochrome P450 (CYP) 3A4 caused by coadministration of inhibitor drugs were successfully predicted by using in vivo information. In order to exploit these predictions in daily pharmacotherapy, the clinical significance of the pharmacokinetic changes needs to be carefully evaluated. The aim of the present study was to construct a pharmacokinetic interaction significance classification system (PISCS) in which the clinical significance of DDIs was considered with pharmacokinetic changes in a systematic manner. Furthermore, the classifications proposed by PISCS were compared in a detailed manner with current alert classifications in the product labelling or the summary of product characteristics used in Japan, the US and the UK. A matrix table was composed by stratifying two basic parameters of the prediction: the contribution ratio of CYP3A4 to the oral clearance of substrates (CR), and the inhibition ratio of inhibitors (IR). The total exposure increase was estimated for each cell in the table by associating CR and IR values, and the cells were categorized into nine zones according to the magnitude of the exposure increase. Then, correspondences between the DDI significance and the zones were determined for each drug group considering the observed exposure changes and the current classification in the product labelling. Substrate drugs of CYP3A4 selected from three therapeutic groups, i.e. HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors (statins), calcium-channel antagonists/blockers (CCBs) and benzodiazepines (BZPs), were analysed as representative examples. The product labelling descriptions of drugs in Japan, US and UK were obtained from the websites of each regulatory body. Among 220

  20. Predicting weight status stability and change from fifth grade to eighth grade: the significant role of adolescents' social-emotional well-being.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Yiting; Gable, Sara

    2013-04-01

    The primary objective of this study was to predict weight status stability and change across the transition to adolescence using parent reports of child and household routines and teacher and child self-reports of social-emotional development. Data were from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K), a nationally representative sample of children who entered kindergarten during 1998-1999 and were followed through eighth grade. At fifth grade, parents reported on child and household routines and the study child and his/her primary classroom teacher reported on the child's social-emotional functioning. At fifth and eighth grade, children were directly weighed and measured at school. Nine mutually-exclusive weight trajectory groups were created to capture stability or change in weight status from fifth to eighth grade: (1) stable obese (ObeSta); (2) obese to overweight (ObePos1); (3) obese to healthy (ObePos2); (4) stable overweight (OverSta); (5) overweight to healthy (OverPos); (6) overweight to obese (OverNeg); (7) stable healthy (HelSta); (8) healthy to overweight (HelNeg1); and (9) healthy to obese (HelNeg2). Except for breakfast consumption at home, school-provided lunches, nighttime sleep duration, household and child routines did not predict stability or change in weight status. Instead, weight status trajectory across the transition to adolescence was significantly predicted by measures of social-emotional functioning at fifth grade. Assessing children's social-emotional well-being in addition to their lifestyle routines during the transition to adolescence is a noteworthy direction for adolescent obesity prevention and intervention. Copyright © 2013 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. [Predictive value of central venous-to-arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure difference for fluid responsiveness in septic shock patients: a prospective clinical study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guangyun; Huang, Huibin; Qin, Hanyu; Du, Bin

    2018-05-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of central venous-to-arterial carbon dioxide partial pressure difference (Pcv-aCO 2 ) before and after rapid rehydration test (fluid challenge) in predicting the fluid responsiveness in patients with septic shock. A prospective observation was conducted. Forty septic shock patients admitted to medical intensive care unit (ICU) of Peking Union Medical College Hospital from October 2015 to June 2017 were enrolled. All of the patients received fluid challenge in the presence of invasive hemodynamic monitoring. Heart rate (HR), blood pressure, cardiac index (CI), Pcv-aCO 2 and other physiological variables were recorded at 10 minutes before and immediately after fluid challenge. Fluid responsiveness was defined as an increase in CI greater than 10% after fluid challenge, whereas fluid non-responsiveness was defined as no increase or increase in CI less than 10%. The correlation between Pcv-aCO 2 and CI was explored by Pearson correlation analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were established to evaluate the discriminatory abilities of baseline and the changes after fluid challenge in Pcv-aCO 2 and other physiological variables to define the fluid responsiveness. The patients were separated into two groups according to the initial value of Pcv-aCO 2 . The cut-off value of 6 mmHg (1 mmHg = 0.133 kPa) was chosen according to previous studies. The discriminatory abilities of baseline and the change in Pcv-aCO 2 (ΔPcv-aCO 2 ) were assessed in each group. A total of 40 patients were finally included in this study. Twenty-two patients responded to the fluid challenge (responders). Eighteen patients were fluid non-responders. There was no significant difference in baseline physiological variable between the two groups. Fluid challenge could increase CI and blood pressure significantly, decrease HR notably and had no effect on Pcv-aCO 2 in fluid responders. In non-responders, blood pressure was increased significantly and CI, HR, Pcv

  2. Incidence of atrial fibrillation and its risk prediction model based on a prospective urban Han Chinese cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, L; Li, J; Wang, C; Li, X; Su, Q; Zhang, G; Xue, F

    2017-09-01

    Prediction models of atrial fibrillation (AF) have been developed; however, there was no AF prediction model validated in Chinese population. Therefore, we aimed to investigate the incidence of AF in urban Han Chinese health check-up population, as well as to develop AF prediction models using behavioral, anthropometric, biochemical, electrocardiogram (ECG) markers, as well as visit-to-visit variability (VVV) in blood pressures available in the routine health check-up. A total of 33 186 participants aged 45-85 years and free of AF at baseline were included in this cohort, to follow up for incident AF with an annually routine health check-up. Cox regression models were used to develop AF prediction model and 10-fold cross-validation was used to test the discriminatory accuracy of prediction model. We developed three prediction models, with age, sex, history of coronary heart disease (CHD), hypertension as predictors for simple model, with left high-amplitude waves, premature beats added for ECG model, and with age, sex, history of CHD and VVV in systolic and diabolic blood pressures as predictors for VVV model, to estimate risk of incident AF. The calibration of our models ranged from 1.001 to 1.004 (P for Hosmer Lemeshow test >0.05). The area under receiver operator characteristics curve were 78%, 80% and 82%, respectively, for predicting risk of AF. In conclusion, we have identified predictors of incident AF and developed prediction models for AF with variables readily available in routine health check-up.

  3. GENERAL SCIENTIFIC PRECONDITIONS AND PROSPECTS OF PREDICTION OF GEOSPACE PROCESSES FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF TERRITORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Varshanina

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work substantiates the need to ontologically couple methods of prediction of geospace processes and fundamental bases of the modern epistemological picture of the world. The method of a structural mask of power geographical fields is offered. On its basis a way of a solution of the problem of indeterminacy and overcoming influence of nonlinearity of geospace processes, as well as the methods of their dot prediction are developed.

  4. Clinical significance of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio as an early predictive marker for adverse outcomes in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, Tae Joo; Park, Ji Young

    2017-06-07

    To investigated the prognostic value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in patients with acute pancreatitis and determined an optimal cut-off value for the prediction of adverse outcomes in these patients. We retrospectively analyzed 490 patients with acute pancreatitis diagnosed between March 2007 and December 2012. NLRs were calculated at admission and 24, 48, and 72 h after admission. Patients were grouped according to acute pancreatitis severity and organ failure occurrence, and a comparative analysis was performed to compare the NLR between groups. Among the 490 patients, 70 had severe acute pancreatitis with 31 experiencing organ failure. The severe acute pancreatitis group had a significantly higher NLR than the mild acute pancreatitis group on all 4 d (median, 6.14, 6.71, 5.70, and 4.00 vs 4.74, 4.47, 3.20, and 3.30, respectively, P pancreatitis. Elevated baseline NLR correlates with severe acute pancreatitis and organ failure.

  5. Comparison of FLOWTRAN predictions of onset of significant voiding (OSV) to Savannah River Heat Transfer Laboratory subcooled boiling flow instability measurements, Part 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laurinat, J.E.

    1988-10-01

    The onset of flow instability (OFI) was measured in the first of a scheduled series of subcooled boiling tests at the Savannah River Heat Transfer Laboratory (HTL). This report summarizes the benchmarking of predictions of the onset of significant voiding (OSV) using Version 16 of the FLOWTRANΩ reactor limits code against the HTL measurements. This study confirms that, for this series of HTL subcooled boiling tests, the Saha-Zuber OSV correlation was a conservative indicator of OFI for Peclet numbers between 30,000 and 80,000. The Saha-Zuber correlation was not a conservative indicator of OFI for Peclet numbers below 30,000. A conservative bound to the Saha-Zuber correlation (the Saha-Zuber constant Stanton number criterion -- 30%) was agreed to at a meeting of SRL, DOE, and the DOE EH and DP review panels. This bound was a conservative indicator of OFI for all measurements in this study

  6. The discriminatory capability of existing scores to predict advanced colorectal neoplasia: a prospective colonoscopy study of 5,899 screening participants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Martin C S; Ching, Jessica Y L; Ng, Simpson; Lam, Thomas Y T; Luk, Arthur K C; Wong, Sunny H; Ng, Siew C; Ng, Simon S M; Wu, Justin C Y; Chan, Francis K L; Sung, Joseph J Y

    2016-02-03

    We evaluated the performance of seven existing risk scoring systems in predicting advanced colorectal neoplasia in an asymptomatic Chinese cohort. We prospectively recruited 5,899 Chinese subjects aged 50-70 years in a colonoscopy screening programme(2008-2014). Scoring systems under evaluation included two scoring tools from the US; one each from Spain, Germany, and Poland; the Korean Colorectal Screening(KCS) scores; and the modified Asia Pacific Colorectal Screening(APCS) scores. The c-statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive values(PPVs), and negative predictive values(NPVs) of these systems were evaluated. The resources required were estimated based on the Number Needed to Screen(NNS) and the Number Needed to Refer for colonoscopy(NNR). Advanced neoplasia was detected in 364 (6.2%) subjects. The German system referred the least proportion of subjects (11.2%) for colonoscopy, whilst the KCS scoring system referred the highest (27.4%). The c-statistics of all systems ranged from 0.56-0.65, with sensitivities ranging from 0.04-0.44 and specificities from 0.74-0.99. The modified APCS scoring system had the highest c-statistics (0.65, 95% C.I. 0.58-0.72). The NNS (12-19) and NNR (5-10) were similar among the scoring systems. The existing scoring systems have variable capability to predict advanced neoplasia among asymptomatic Chinese subjects, and further external validation should be performed.

  7. [Predictive factors of clinically significant drug-drug interactions among regimens based on protease inhibitors, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and raltegravir].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervero, Miguel; Torres, Rafael; Jusdado, Juan José; Pastor, Susana; Agud, Jose Luis

    2016-04-15

    To determine the prevalence and types of clinically significant drug-drug interactions (CSDI) in the drug regimens of HIV-infected patients receiving antiretroviral treatment. retrospective review of database. Centre: Hospital Universitario Severo Ochoa, Infectious Unit. one hundred and forty-two participants followed by one of the authors were selected from January 1985 to December 2014. from their outpatient medical records we reviewed information from the last available visit of the participants, in relation to HIV infection, comorbidities, demographics and the drugs that they were receiving; both antiretroviral drugs and drugs not related to HIV infection. We defined CSDI from the information sheet and/or database on antiretroviral drug interactions of the University of Liverpool (http://www.hiv-druginteractions.org) and we developed a diagnostic tool to predict the possibility of CSDI. By multivariate logistic regression analysis and by estimating the diagnostic performance curve obtained, we identified a quick tool to predict the existence of drug interactions. Of 142 patients, 39 (29.11%) had some type of CSDI and in 11.2% 2 or more interactions were detected. In only one patient the combination of drugs was contraindicated (this patient was receiving darunavir/r and quetiapine). In multivariate analyses, predictors of CSDI were regimen type (PI or NNRTI) and the use of 3 or more non-antiretroviral drugs (AUC 0.886, 95% CI 0.828 to 0.944; P=.0001). The risk was 18.55 times in those receiving NNRTI and 27,95 times in those receiving IP compared to those taking raltegravir. Drug interactions, including those defined as clinically significant, are common in HIV-infected patients treated with antiretroviral drugs, and the risk is greater in IP-based regimens. Raltegravir-based prescribing, especially in patients who receive at least 3 non-HIV drugs could avoid interactions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Independent predictive factors for significant liver histological changes in patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load chronic HBV infection and a normal alanine aminotransferase level

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LI Qiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective To investigate the independent predictive factors for significant liver histological changes (SLHCs in patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV infection and a normal alanine aminotransferase (ALT level. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed on the clinical data of 116 previously untreated patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load (HBV DNA≥105 copies/ml chronic HBV infection and a normal ALT level (<50 U/L who were hospitalized in Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center Affiliated to Fudan University from June 2013 to August 2015. The definition of SLHCs was inflammation ≥G2 and/or fibrosis≥S2. The t-test or Mann-Whitney U rank sum test was used for comparison of continuous data between groups, and the chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between groups. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were used to determine independent predictive factors for SLHCs. ResultsOf all the 116 patients, 47(40.5% had SLHCs. The multivariate analysis showed that age (OR=2.828, P<0.05, ALT (OR=1.011, P<0.05, and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT (OR=1.089, P<0.05 were independent predictors for SLHCs in patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load chronic HBV infection and a normal ALT level. The patients aged ≤30 years had a significantly lower incidence rate of SLHCs than those aged>30 years (21.6% vs 49.4%, χ2=6.42, P=0.015, the patients with ALT ≤30 U/L had a significantly lower incidence rate of SLHCs than those with 30 U/L<ALT≤50 U/L (17.6% vs 50.0%, χ2=19.86, P<0.001, and the patients with GGT≤40 U/L had a significantly lower incidence rate of SLHCs than those with GGT>40 U/L (28.8% vs 66.7%, χ2=28.63, P<0.001. ConclusionIn patients with HBeAg-positive high-viral-load chronic HBV infection and a normal ALT level, those with an age of>30 years, ALT>30 U/L, and GGT>40 U/L tend to develop SLHCs and need liver biopsy.

  9. Virtual In-Silico Modeling Guided Catheter Ablation Predicts Effective Linear Ablation Lesion Set for Longstanding Persistent Atrial Fibrillation: Multicenter Prospective Randomized Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, Jaemin; Hwang, Minki; Song, Jun-Seop; Lim, Byounghyun; Kim, Tae-Hoon; Joung, Boyoung; Kim, Sung-Hwan; Oh, Yong-Seog; Nam, Gi-Byung; On, Young Keun; Oh, Seil; Kim, Young-Hoon; Pak, Hui-Nam

    2017-01-01

    Objective: Radiofrequency catheter ablation for persistent atrial fibrillation (PeAF) still has a substantial recurrence rate. This study aims to investigate whether an AF ablation lesion set chosen using in-silico ablation (V-ABL) is clinically feasible and more effective than an empirically chosen ablation lesion set (Em-ABL) in patients with PeAF. Methods: We prospectively included 108 patients with antiarrhythmic drug-resistant PeAF (77.8% men, age 60.8 ± 9.9 years), and randomly assigned them to the V-ABL ( n = 53) and Em-ABL ( n = 55) groups. Five different in-silico ablation lesion sets [1 pulmonary vein isolation (PVI), 3 linear ablations, and 1 electrogram-guided ablation] were compared using heart-CT integrated AF modeling. We evaluated the feasibility, safety, and efficacy of V-ABL compared with that of Em-ABL. Results: The pre-procedural computing time for five different ablation strategies was 166 ± 11 min. In the Em-ABL group, the earliest terminating blinded in-silico lesion set matched with the Em-ABL lesion set in 21.8%. V-ABL was not inferior to Em-ABL in terms of procedure time ( p = 0.403), ablation time ( p = 0.510), and major complication rate ( p = 0.900). During 12.6 ± 3.8 months of follow-up, the clinical recurrence rate was 14.0% in the V-ABL group and 18.9% in the Em-ABL group ( p = 0.538). In Em-ABL group, clinical recurrence rate was significantly lower after PVI+posterior box+anterior linear ablation, which showed the most frequent termination during in-silico ablation (log-rank p = 0.027). Conclusions: V-ABL was feasible in clinical practice, not inferior to Em-ABL, and predicts the most effective ablation lesion set in patients who underwent PeAF ablation.

  10. Superior Predictive Value for NTproBNP Compared with High Sensitivity cTnT in Dialysis Patients: A Pilot Prospective Observational Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luminita Voroneanu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aims: The clinical utility of the new biomarker, high sensitivity cardiac T troponin (hs-cTnT is still unclear in dialysis patients. Furthermore, the prognostic value of combining N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP and hs-cTnT has not been explored so far. The objective of this pilot study was to determine the utility of hs-cTnT alone versus hs-cTnT in combination with NT-proBNP for predicting death in a stable hemodialysis cohort. Methods: A prospective observational pilot study including 98 chronic asymptomatic hemodialysis patients with a follow up period of 24 months was designed. The cut-off values for NT-proBNP and hs-cTnT were calculated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis, using mortality as an end-point. Based on the cut-off values, the cohort was divided into four groups. Group 1 - NT-proBNP 69.48 ng/l; group 3 - NT-proBNP > 14275 pg/ml and hs-cTnT 14275 pg/ml and hs-cTnT > 69.48 ng/l. Survival for each group was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis. Results: During the follow-up period 16 patients died. According to the ROC curves analysis, the cut-off point for hs-cTnT and for NT-proBNP were 69.43 ng/l (AUC = 0.618; p = 0.04 and 14275 pg/ml (AUC = 0.722; p = 0.003, respectively. In univariate Cox analysis, both hs-cTnT (HR = 3.34; p = 0.016 and NT-proBNP (HR = 5.94; p = 0.01 were predictors of death. In the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, only NT-pro-BNP levels above the cut-off value remained an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. The combined elevation of both biomarkers did not improve significantly the prognostic value compared with NT-proBNP alone (HR = 6.15 versus HR =4 .78; p = 0.338. Conclusion: NT-pro-BNP is a strong predictor of overall mortality in asymptomatic hemodialysis patients. The addition of hs-cTnT did not improve the prognostic accuracy compared with NT proBNP alone.

  11. Lung Shunt Fraction prior to Yttrium-90 Radioembolization Predicts Survival in Patients with Neuroendocrine Liver Metastases: Single-Center Prospective Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ludwig, Johannes M. [Yale University, Division of Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging (United States); Ambinder, Emily McIntosh [John Hopkins University School of Medicine, Department of Diagnostic Radiology (United States); Ghodadra, Anish [University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology (United States); Xing, Minzhi [Yale University, Division of Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging (United States); Prajapati, Hasmukh J. [The University of Tennessee Health Science Center, Division of Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology (United States); Kim, Hyun S., E-mail: kevin.kim@yale.edu [Yale University, Division of Interventional Radiology, Department of Radiology and Biomedical Imaging (United States)

    2016-07-15

    ObjectiveTo investigate survival outcomes following radioembolization with Yttrium-90 (Y90) for neuroendocrine tumor liver metastases (NETLMs). This study was designed to assess the efficacy of Y90 radioembolization and to evaluate lung shunt fraction (LSF) as a predictor for survival.MethodsA single-center, prospective study of 44 consecutive patients (median age: 58.5 years, 29.5 % male) diagnosed with pancreatic (52.3 %) or carcinoid (47.7 %) NETLMs from 2006 to 2012 who underwent Y90 radioembolization was performed. Patients’ baseline characteristics, including LSF and median overall survival (OS) from first Y90 radioembolization, were recorded and compared between patients with high (≥10 %) and low (<10 %) LSF. Baseline comparisons were performed using Fisher’s exact tests for categorical and Mann–Whitney U test for continuous variables. Survival was calculated using the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate (Wilcoxon rank-sum test) and multivariate analyses (Cox Proportional Hazard Model) for risk factor analysis were performed.ResultsThere was no statistically significant difference in age, gender, race, tumor properties, or previous treatments between patients with high (n = 15) and low (n = 29) LSF. The median OS was 27.4 months (95 %CI 12.73–55.23), with 4.77 months (95 %CI 2.87–26.73) for high and 42.77 months (95 %CI 18.47–59.73) for low LSF (p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis identified high LSF (p = 0.001), total serum bilirubin >1.2 mg (p = 0.016), and lack of pretreatment with octreotide (p = 0.01) as independent prognostic factors for poorer survival. Tumor type and total radiation dose did not predict survival.ConclusionsLSF ≥10 %, elevated bilirubin levels, and lack of pretreatment with octreotide were found to be independent prognostic factors for poorer survival in patients with NETLMs.

  12. Submucosal Plexitis as a Predictive Factor for Postoperative Endoscopic Recurrence in Patients with Crohn's Disease Undergoing a Resection with Ileocolonic Anastomosis: Results from a Prospective Single-centre Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemmens, Bart; de Buck van Overstraeten, Anthony; Arijs, Ingrid; Sagaert, Xavier; Van Assche, Gert; Vermeire, Séverine; Tertychnyy, Alexander; Geboes, Karel; Wolthuis, Albert; D'Hoore, Andre; De Hertogh, Gert; Ferrante, Marc

    2017-02-01

    Ileocolonoscopy allows early detection of recurrence after surgical resection for Crohn's disease [CD]. Plexitis, defined as presence of inflammatory cells in or around enteric ganglia or nerve bundles, in the proximal surgical margin has been associated with an increased overall recurrence risk. We investigated prospectively whether plexitis can predict endoscopic recurrence [ER] in a consecutive cohort of CD patients undergoing ileocolonic resection. All CD patients undergoing ileocolonic resection in our institution between October 2009 and December 2012 were eligible for this study. Clinical data were obtained prospectively from the patients' files, and biopsies from the proximal surgical margins were analysed immunohistochemically for inflammation at the myenteric and submucosal plexus [lymphocytes, mast cells, eosinophils]. The degree of plexitis was correlated with the presence of ER at 6 months, defined as a modified Rutgeerts' score of ≥ i2b. Multivariate models were developed and tested to predict posterior probability of ER. A total of 74 patients were included. Six months after ileocolonic resection, 50% showed ER. Known risk factors such as penetrating disease, previous resections, and active smoking, showed no relation with ER. On the other hand, submucosal lymphocytic plexitis was associated with ER [p = 0.020]. The predictive value of lymphocytic cell count increased with more extensive biopsy sampling and with application of immunohistochemistry. Submucosal lymphocytic plexitis in the proximal surgical margin was significantly related with a higher risk for ER after ileocolonic resection. These data support development of a postoperative prevention trial with vedolizumab, which may block lymphocytic trafficking in the postoperative bowel. Copyright © 2016 European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. A Prospective Study of the Timing and Accuracy of Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin Levels in Predicting Acute Kidney Injury in High-Risk Cardiac Surgery Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fanning, Niall; Galvin, Sinead; Parke, Rachael; Gilroy, James; Bellomo, Rinaldo; McGuinness, Shay

    2016-01-01

    Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) appears to be a promising biomarker in the effort to predict acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery. The authors aimed to identify the specific time point in the perioperative period at which measurement of either urinary or serum concentrations of NGAL would have the highest predictive power for AKI. The authors also investigated whether change in NGAL from baseline was a better predictor of AKI than absolute NGAL values. A prospective, investigator-blinded observational study. The cardiac surgical unit of a university teaching hospital. The study consisted of 50 patients undergoing cardiac surgery who were classified preoperatively as high risk for developing postoperative AKI. No changes to standard practice were required. The authors performed serial measurements of urinary and serum NGAL concentrations at 18 time points throughout the first 48 postoperative hours and assessed the variables required to diagnose AKI with standard criteria. Statistical analysis of predictive ability was performed using the area under receiver operator curves (AUROC) calculated for each time point. It was demonstrated that urinary NGAL performed marginally better than serum NGAL in predicting AKI. Urinary sampling at 4 and 24 hours after initiation of cardiopulmonary bypass provided the greatest diagnostic ability (AUROC, 0.702 and 0.712, respectively). Absolute NGAL values performed better than changes in NGAL values in predicting AKI. Urinary NGAL performed better than serum NGAL in predicting AKI and was most accurate when measured at 24 hours after initiation of cardiopulmonary bypass; however, NGAL appeared to be at best only a fair predictor of cardiac surgery-associated AKI. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Treatment with a belly-board device significantly reduces the volume of small bowel irradiated and results in low acute toxicity in adjuvant radiotherapy for gynecologic cancer: results of a prospective study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Joseph; Fitzpatrick, Kathryn; Horan, Gail; McCloy, Roisin; Buckney, Steve; O'Neill, Louise; Faul, Clare

    2005-01-01

    Background and purpose: To determine whether treatment prone on a belly-board significantly reduces the volume of small bowel irradiated in women receiving adjuvant radiotherapy for gynecologic cancer, and to prospectively study acute small bowel toxicity using an accepted recording instrument. Material and methods: Thirty-two gynecologic patients underwent simulation with CT scanning supine and prone. Small bowel was delineated on every CT slice, and treatment was prone on the belly-board using 3-5 fields-typically Anterior, Right and Left Lateral, plus or minus Lateral Boosts. Median prescribed dose was 50.4 Gy and all treatments were delivered in 1.8 Gy fractions. Concomitant Cisplatin was administered in 13 patients with cervical carcinoma. Comparison of small bowel dose-volumes was made between supine and prone, with each subject acting as their own matched pair. Acute small bowel toxicity was prospectively measured using the Common Toxicity Criteria: Version 2.0. Results: Treatment prone on the belly-board significantly reduced the volume of small bowel receiving ≥100; ≥95; ≥90; and ≥80% of the prescribed dose, but not ≥50%. This was found whether volume was defined in cubic centimeters or % of total small bowel volume. Of 29 evaluable subjects, 2 (7%) experienced 1 episode each of grade 3 diarrhoea. All other toxicity events were grade 2 or less and comprised diarrhoea (59%), abdominal pain or cramping (48%), nausea (38%), anorexia (17%), vomiting (10%). There were no Grade 4 events and no treatment days were lost due to toxicity. Conclusions: Treatment prone on a belly-board device results in significant small bowel sparing, during adjuvant radiotherapy for gynecologic cancer. The absence of Grade 4 events or Treatment Days Lost compares favorably with the published literature

  15. In first-time mothers, post-partum depressive symptom prospectively predict symptoms of post-traumatic stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahar, Golan; Herishanu-Gilutz, Shirley; Holcberg, Gershon; Kofman, Ora

    2015-11-01

    Symptoms of both depression and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) are prevalent among first-time mothers following birth. However, the direction of the association between the two types of symptoms is unclear. Ninety six first-time mothers giving birth via vaginal delivery (N=38), emergency C-Section (N=27) and planned C-Section (N=21) were assessed for depression and PTSD twice: Six weeks post-partum and six-weeks later. Cross-lagged Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) analyses revealed a prospective effect of depressive symptoms on PTSD symptoms. No moderating factors were identified. A relatively modest sample size and only two assessment waves. An early detection and intervention with symptoms of post-partum depression might also prevent the development of PTSD symptoms. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Insomnia predicts long-term all-cause mortality after acute myocardial infarction: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Condén, Emelie; Rosenblad, Andreas

    2016-07-15

    Sleep impairment such as insomnia is an established risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disease and acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The aim of the current study was to examine the association between insomnia and all-cause mortality among AMI patients. This prospective cohort study used data on n=732 patients recruited from September 2006 to May 2011 as part of the Västmanland Myocardial Infarction Study (VaMIS), a prospective cohort study of AMI patients living in Västmanland County, Sweden. Participants were followed up for all-cause mortality until December 9, 2015. The outcome of interest was time-to-death (TTD), with the presence of insomnia being the risk factor of main interest. Data were analyzed using a piecewise Cox regression model with change point for insomnia at two years of follow-up, adjusted for socioeconomic, lifestyle and clinical risk factors. In total, n=175 (23.9%) of the participants suffered from insomnia. During a mean (SD) follow-up time of 6.0 (2.5) years (4392person-years), a total of n=231 (31.6%) participants died, n=77 (44.0%) in the insomnia group and n=154 (27.6%) in the non-insomnia group (log-rank test pinsomnia did not imply a higher risk of death during the first two years after AMI (HR 0.849; 95% CI 0.508-1.421; p=0.534). During the period after the first two years, however, insomnia implied a 1.6 times higher risk of death (HR 1.597; 95% CI 1.090-2.341; p=0.016). Insomnia implies a higher risk of death among AMI patients in the long term. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Using Neural Network and Logistic Regression Analysis to Predict Prospective Mathematics Teachers' Academic Success upon Entering Graduate Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bahadir, Elif

    2016-01-01

    The ability to predict the success of students when they enter a graduate program is critical for educational institutions because it allows them to develop strategic programs that will help improve students' performances during their stay at an institution. In this study, we present the results of an experimental comparison study of Logistic…

  18. Approach-bias predicts development of cannabis problem severity in heavy cannabis users: results from a prospective FMRI study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cousijn, J.; Goudriaan, A.E.; Ridderinkhof, K.R.; van den Brink, W.; Veltman, D.J.; Wiers, R.W.

    2012-01-01

    A potentially powerful predictor for the course of drug (ab)use is the approach-bias, that is, the pre-reflective tendency to approach rather than avoid drug-related stimuli. Here we investigated the neural underpinnings of cannabis approach and avoidance tendencies. By elucidating the predictive

  19. Approach-Bias Predicts Development of Cannabis Problem Severity in Heavy Cannabis Users: Results from a Prospective FMRI Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cousijn, Janna; Goudriaan, Anna E.; Ridderinkhof, K. Richard; van den Brink, Wim; Veltman, Dick J.; Wiers, Reinout W.

    2012-01-01

    A potentially powerful predictor for the course of drug (ab) use is the approach-bias, that is, the pre-reflective tendency to approach rather than avoid drug-related stimuli. Here we investigated the neural underpinnings of cannabis approach and avoidance tendencies. By elucidating the predictive

  20. Predictive Factors for Subjective Improvement in Lumbar Spinal Stenosis Patients with Nonsurgical Treatment: A 3-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Matsudaira

    Full Text Available To assess the predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment in consecutive patients with lumbar spinal stenosis (LSS.Patients with LSS were enrolled from 17 medical centres in Japan. We followed up 274 patients (151 men; mean age, 71 ± 7.4 years for 3 years. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to assess the predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment.In 30% of patients, conservative treatment led to a subjective improvement in the symptoms; in 70% of patients, the symptoms remained unchanged, worsened, or required surgical treatment. The multivariable analysis of predictive factors for subjective improvement with nonsurgical treatment showed that the absence of cauda equina symptoms (only radicular symptoms had an odds ratio (OR of 3.31 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.50-7.31; absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis had an OR of 2.53 (95% CI: 1.13-5.65; <1-year duration of illness had an OR of 3.81 (95% CI: 1.46-9.98; and hypertension had an OR of 2.09 (95% CI: 0.92-4.78.The predictive factors for subjective symptom improvement with nonsurgical treatment in LSS patients were the presence of only radicular symptoms, absence of degenerative spondylolisthesis/scoliosis, and an illness duration of <1 year.

  1. The plasma leptin/adiponectin ratio predicts first cardiovascular event in men : A prospective nested case-control study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kappelle, Paul J.W.H.; Dullaart, Robin P. F.; van Beek, Andre P.; Hillege, Hans L.; Wolffenbuttel, Bruce H. R.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: The plasma leptin/adiponectin (L/A) ratio has been proposed as a preferential marker of atherosclerosis susceptibility compared to leptin and adiponectin alone. We determined the extent to which the L/A ratio predicts incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) taking account of clinical risk

  2. Predicting the onset of major depression in subjects with subthreshold depression in primary care: A prospective study.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cuijpers, P.; Smit, H.F.E.; Willemse, G.

    2005-01-01

    Objective: That subjects with subthreshold depression have an increased probability of developing major depression has been confirmed by many studies. However, the factors which may predict the onset of major depression have yet to be fully examined. Method: We examined the control group of a

  3. Noninvasive pulse pressure variation and stroke volume variation to predict fluid responsiveness at multiple thresholds : a prospective observational study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, Jaap Jan; Poterman, Marieke; Papineau Salm, Pieternel; Van Amsterdam, Kai; Struys, Michel M. R. F.; Scheeren, Thomas W. L.; Kalmar, Alain F.

    2015-01-01

    Pulse pressure variation (PPV) and stroke volume variation (SVV) are dynamic preload variables that can be measured noninvasively to assess fluid responsiveness (FR) in anesthetized patients with mechanical ventilation. Few studies have examined the effectiveness of predicting FR according to the

  4. A risk score for the prediction of advanced age-related macular degeneration: Development and validation in 2 prospective cohorts

    Science.gov (United States)

    We aimed to develop an eye specific model which used readily available information to predict risk for advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD). We used the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) as our training dataset, which consisted of the 4,507 participants (contributing 1,185 affected v...

  5. Subjective but Not Actigraphy-Defined Sleep Predicts Next-Day Fatigue in Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: A Prospective Daily Diary Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Charlotte; Wearden, Alison J; Fairclough, Gillian; Emsley, Richard A; Kyle, Simon D

    2016-04-01

    This study aimed to (1) examine the relationship between subjective and actigraphy-defined sleep, and next-day fatigue in chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS); and (2) investigate the potential mediating role of negative mood on this relationship. We also sought to examine the effect of presleep arousal on perceptions of sleep. Twenty-seven adults meeting the Oxford criteria for CFS and self-identifying as experiencing sleep difficulties were recruited to take part in a prospective daily diary study, enabling symptom capture in real time over a 6-day period. A paper diary was used to record nightly subjective sleep and presleep arousal. Mood and fatigue symptoms were rated four times each day. Actigraphy was employed to provide objective estimations of sleep duration and continuity. Multilevel modelling revealed that subjective sleep variables, namely sleep quality, efficiency, and perceiving sleep to be unrefreshing, predicted following-day fatigue levels, with poorer subjective sleep related to increased fatigue. Lower subjective sleep efficiency and perceiving sleep as unrefreshing predicted reduced variance in fatigue across the following day. Negative mood on waking partially mediated these relationships. Increased presleep cognitive and somatic arousal predicted self-reported poor sleep. Actigraphy-defined sleep, however, was not found to predict following-day fatigue. For the first time we show that nightly subjective sleep predicts next-day fatigue in CFS and identify important factors driving this relationship. Our data suggest that sleep specific interventions, targeting presleep arousal, perceptions of sleep and negative mood on waking, may improve fatigue in CFS. © 2016 Associated Professional Sleep Societies, LLC.

  6. Prediction of response to PPI therapy and factors influencing treatment outcome in patients with GORD: a prospective pragmatic trial using pantoprazole

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tholen Anne

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Management of patients with gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD can be assisted by information predicting the likely response to proton pump inhibitor (PPI treatment. The aim was to undertake a study of GORD patients designed to approximate ordinary clinical practice that would identify patient characteristics predicting symptomatic response to pantoprazole treatment. Methods 1888 patients with symptoms of GORD were enrolled in a multicentre, multinational, prospective, open study of 8 weeks pantoprazole treatment, 40 mg daily. Response was assessed by using the ReQuest™ questionnaire, by the investigator making conventional clinical enquiry and by asking patients about their satisfaction with symptom control. Factors including pre-treatment oesophagitis, gender, age, body mass index (BMI, Helicobacter pylori status, anxiety and depression, and concurrent IBS symptoms were examined using logistic regression to determine if they were related to response, judged from the ReQuest™-GI score. Results Poorer treatment responses were associated with non-erosive reflux disease, female gender, lower BMI, anxiety and concurrent irritable bowel syndrome symptoms before treatment. No association was found with age, Helicobacter pylori status or oesophagitis grade. Some reflux-related symptoms were still present in 14% of patients who declared themselves 'well-satisfied' with their symptom control. Conclusions Some readily identifiable features help to predict symptomatic responses to a PPI and consequently may help in managing patient expectation. ClinicalTrial.gov identifier: NCT00312806.

  7. Can Clinical and Surgical Parameters Be Combined to Predict How Long It Will Take a Tibia Fracture to Heal? A Prospective Multicentre Observational Study: The FRACTING Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leo Massari

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Healing of tibia fractures occurs over a wide time range of months, with a number of risk factors contributing to prolonged healing. In this prospective, multicentre, observational study, we investigated the capability of FRACTING (tibia FRACTure prediction healING days score, calculated soon after tibia fracture treatment, to predict healing time. Methods. The study included 363 patients. Information on patient health, fracture morphology, and surgical treatment adopted were combined to calculate the FRACTING score. Fractures were considered healed when the patient was able to fully weight-bear without pain. Results. 319 fractures (88% healed within 12 months from treatment. Forty-four fractures healed after 12 months or underwent a second surgery. FRACTING score positively correlated with days to healing: r=0.63 (p<0.0001. Average score value was 7.3 ± 2.5; ROC analysis showed strong reliability of the score in separating patients healing before versus after 6 months: AUC = 0.823. Conclusions. This study shows that the FRACTING score can be employed both to predict months needed for fracture healing and to identify immediately after treatment patients at risk of prolonged healing. In patients with high score values, new pharmacological and nonpharmacological treatments to enhance osteogenesis could be tested selectively, which may finally result in reduced disability time and health cost savings.

  8. Central venous pressure and shock index predict lack of hemodynamic response to volume expansion in septic shock: a prospective, observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanspa, Michael J; Brown, Samuel M; Hirshberg, Eliotte L; Jones, Jason P; Grissom, Colin K

    2012-12-01

    Volume expansion is a common therapeutic intervention in septic shock, although patient response to the intervention is difficult to predict. Central venous pressure (CVP) and shock index have been used independently to guide volume expansion, although their use is questionable. We hypothesize that a combination of these measurements will be useful. In a prospective, observational study, patients with early septic shock received 10-mL/kg volume expansion at their treating physician's discretion after brief initial resuscitation in the emergency department. Central venous pressure and shock index were measured before volume expansion interventions. Cardiac index was measured immediately before and after the volume expansion using transthoracic echocardiography. Hemodynamic response was defined as an increase in a cardiac index of 15% or greater. Thirty-four volume expansions were observed in 25 patients. A CVP of 8 mm Hg or greater and a shock index of 1 beat min(-1) mm Hg(-1) or less individually had a good negative predictive value (83% and 88%, respectively). Of 34 volume expansions, the combination of both a high CVP and a low shock index was extremely unlikely to elicit hemodynamic response (negative predictive value, 93%; P = .02). Volume expansion in patients with early septic shock with a CVP of 8 mm Hg or greater and a shock index of 1 beat min(-1) mm Hg(-1) or less is unlikely to lead to an increase in cardiac index. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Predictive Treatment Management: Incorporating a Predictive Tumor Response Model Into Robust Prospective Treatment Planning for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Pengpeng, E-mail: zhangp@mskcc.org [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Yorke, Ellen; Hu, Yu-Chi; Mageras, Gig [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Rimner, Andreas [Department of Radiation Oncology, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States); Deasy, Joseph O. [Department of Medical Physics, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York (United States)

    2014-02-01

    Purpose: We hypothesized that a treatment planning technique that incorporates predicted lung tumor regression into optimization, predictive treatment planning (PTP), could allow dose escalation to the residual tumor while maintaining coverage of the initial target without increasing dose to surrounding organs at risk (OARs). Methods and Materials: We created a model to estimate the geometric presence of residual tumors after radiation therapy using planning computed tomography (CT) and weekly cone beam CT scans of 5 lung cancer patients. For planning purposes, we modeled the dynamic process of tumor shrinkage by morphing the original planning target volume (PTV{sub orig}) in 3 equispaced steps to the predicted residue (PTV{sub pred}). Patients were treated with a uniform prescription dose to PTV{sub orig}. By contrast, PTP optimization started with the same prescription dose to PTV{sub orig} but linearly increased the dose at each step, until reaching the highest dose achievable to PTV{sub pred} consistent with OAR limits. This method is compared with midcourse adaptive replanning. Results: Initial parenchymal gross tumor volume (GTV) ranged from 3.6 to 186.5 cm{sup 3}. On average, the primary GTV and PTV decreased by 39% and 27%, respectively, at the end of treatment. The PTP approach gave PTV{sub orig} at least the prescription dose, and it increased the mean dose of the true residual tumor by an average of 6.0 Gy above the adaptive approach. Conclusions: PTP, incorporating a tumor regression model from the start, represents a new approach to increase tumor dose without increasing toxicities, and reduce clinical workload compared with the adaptive approach, although model verification using per-patient midcourse imaging would be prudent.

  10. Prediction of FAD binding sites in electron transport proteins according to efficient radial basis function networks and significant amino acid pairs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le, Nguyen-Quoc-Khanh; Ou, Yu-Yen

    2016-07-30

    Cellular respiration is a catabolic pathway for producing adenosine triphosphate (ATP) and is the most efficient process through which cells harvest energy from consumed food. When cells undergo cellular respiration, they require a pathway to keep and transfer electrons (i.e., the electron transport chain). Due to oxidation-reduction reactions, the electron transport chain produces a transmembrane proton electrochemical gradient. In case protons flow back through this membrane, this mechanical energy is converted into chemical energy by ATP synthase. The convert process is involved in producing ATP which provides energy in a lot of cellular processes. In the electron transport chain process, flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD) is one of the most vital molecules for carrying and transferring electrons. Therefore, predicting FAD binding sites in the electron transport chain is vital for helping biologists understand the electron transport chain process and energy production in cells. We used an independent data set to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, which had an accuracy of 69.84 %. We compared the performance of the proposed method in analyzing two newly discovered electron transport protein sequences with that of the general FAD binding predictor presented by Mishra and Raghava and determined that the accuracy of the proposed method improved by 9-45 % and its Matthew's correlation coefficient was 0.14-0.5. Furthermore, the proposed method enabled reducing the number of false positives significantly and can provide useful information for biologists. We developed a method that is based on PSSM profiles and SAAPs for identifying FAD binding sites in newly discovered electron transport protein sequences. This approach achieved a significant improvement after we added SAAPs to PSSM features to analyze FAD binding proteins in the electron transport chain. The proposed method can serve as an effective tool for predicting FAD binding sites in electron

  11. Mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin and copeptin to predict short-term prognosis of COPD exacerbations: a multicenter prospective blinded study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dres M

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Martin Dres,1,2 Pierre Hausfater,3,4 Frantz Foissac,5,6 Maguy Bernard,7 Luc-Marie Joly,8 Mustapha Sebbane,9 Anne-Laure Philippon,3,4 Cédric Gil-Jardiné,10 Jeannot Schmidt,11 Maxime Maignan,12 Jean-Marc Treluyer,13 Nicolas Roche14,15 On behalf of the UTAPE Study Investigators and Scientific Committee 1Pulmonary and Critical Care Department, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, AP-HP, 2UMRS1158: Clinical and Experimental Respiratory Neurophysiology, Paris 6 University, 3Emergency Department, Hôpital Pitié-Salpêtrière, AP-HP, 4Sorbonne Universités UPMC Univ-Paris06, GRC-14 BIOSFAST, 5Clinical Research Department, Necker Cochin Hospital, AP-HP, 6EA 7323, Sorbonne Paris-Cité, 7Biochemistry Department, Pitié-Salpêtrière Hospital, AP-HP, Paris, 8Emergency Department, Charles Nicolle Hospital, Rouen, 9Department of Emergency Medicine, Lapeyronie Hospital, Montpellier, 10Emergency Department, Pellegrin Hospital, Bordeaux, 11Emergency Department, Gabriel Montpied Hospital, Clermont-Ferrand, 12Emergency Department, Grenoble University Hospital, Grenoble, 13Clinical Research Department, Paris Descartes University, Hôpital Cochin, AP-HP, 14Pulmonary Department, Cochin Hospital, AP-HP, 15Paris Descartes University, Paris, France Background: Exacerbations of COPD (ECOPD are a frequent cause of emergency room (ER visits. Predictors of early outcome could help clinicians in orientation decisions. In the current study, we investigated whether mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM and copeptin, in addition to clinical evaluation, could predict short-term outcomes.Patients and methods: This prospective blinded observational study was conducted in 20 French centers. Patients admitted to the ER for an ECOPD were considered for inclusion. A clinical risk score was calculated, and MR-proADM and copeptin levels were determined from a venous blood sample. The composite primary end point comprised 30-day death or transfer to the intensive care unit or a new ER

  12. Evaluating the Predictive Impact of an Emergent Literacy Model on Dyslexia in Italian Children: A Four-Year Prospective Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigozzi, Lucia; Tarchi, Christian; Pezzica, Sara; Pinto, Giuliana

    2016-01-01

    The strong differences in manifestation, prevalence, and incidence in dyslexia across languages invite studies in specific writing systems. In particular, the question of the role played by emergent literacy in opaque and transparent writing systems remains a fraught one. This research project tested, through a 4-year prospective cohort study, an emergent literacy model for the analysis of the characteristics of future dyslexic children and normally reading peers in Italian, a transparent writing system. A cohort of 450 children was followed from the last year of kindergarten to the third grade in their reading acquisition process. Dyslexic children were individuated (Grade 3), and their performances in kindergarten in textual competence, phonological awareness, and conceptual knowledge of the writing system were compared with a matched group of normally reading peers. Results showed the predictive relevance of the conceptual knowledge of the writing system. The study's implications are discussed. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2014.

  13. Pelvic Lymph Node Status Assessed by 18F-Fluorodeoxyglucose Positron Emission Tomography Predicts Low-Risk Group for Distant Recurrence in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: A Prospective Study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Sokbom; Park, Jung-Yeol; Lim, Myung-Chul; Song, Yong-Joong; Park, Se-Hyun; Kim, Seok-Ki; Chung, Dae-Chul; Seo, Sang-Soo; Kim, Joo-Young; Park, Sang-Yoon

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: To develop a prediction model to identify a low-risk group for distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer treated by concurrent chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Prospectively, 62 patients with locally advanced cervical cancer were recruited as a training cohort. Clinical variables and parameters obtained from positron emission tomography (PET) and magnetic resonance imaging were analyzed by logistic regression. For the test set, 54 patients were recruited independently. To identify the low-risk group, negative likelihood ratio (LR) less than 0.2 was set to be a cutoff. Results: Among the training cohort, multivariate logistic analysis revealed that advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage and a high serum squamous cancer cell (SCC) antigen level were significant risk factors (p = 0.015 and 0.025, respectively). Using the two parameters, criteria to determine a low-risk subset for distant recurrence were postulated: (1) FIGO Stage IIB or less and (2) pretreatment SCC < 2.4 (Model A). Positive pelvic node on PET completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and thus was considered as another prediction model (Model B). In the test cohort, although Model A did not showed diagnostic performance, Model B completely predicted all cases with distant recurrence and showed a sensitivity of 100% with negative LR of 0. Across the training and test cohort (n = 116), the false negative rate was 0 (95% confidence interval 0%-7.6%). Conclusions: Positive pelvic node on PET is a useful marker in prediction of distant recurrence in patients with locally advanced cervical cancer who are treated with concurrent chemoradiation.

  14. The Predictive and Prognostic Significance of c-erb-B2, EGFR, PTEN, mTOR, PI3K, p27, and ERCC1 Expression in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassullu, Nuray; Turkmen, Ilknur; Dayangac, Murat; Yagiz Korkmaz, Pinar; Yasar, Reyhan; Akyildiz, Murat; Yaprak, Onur; Tokat, Yaman; Yuzer, Yildiray; Bulbul Dogusoy, Gulen

    2012-01-01

    Background Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common fatal cancer and an important healthcare problem worldwide. There are many studies describing the prognostic and predictive effects of epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (c-erb-B2) and epidermal growth factor receptor 1 (EGFR), transmembrane tyrosine kinases that influence cell growth and proliferation in many tumors. Objectives The current study aimed to investigate the expression levels of c-erb-B2, EGFR, PTEN, mTOR, PI3K, p27, and ERCC1 in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and their correlation with other clinicopathologic features. Patients and Methods Fifty HCC cases were stained immunohistochemically with these markers. Correlations between the markers and clinicopathologic characteristics and survival rates were analyzed. Results No membranous c-erb-B2 staining was seen, whereas cytoplasmic positivity was present in 92% of HCC samples, membranous EGFR was observed in 40%, PI3K was found in all samples, and mTOR was seen in 30%, whereas reduced or absent PTEN expression was observed in 56% of samples and loss of p27 was seen in 92% of the cases. c-erb-B2 and mTOR overexpression, as well as reduced expression of p27, all correlated with multiple tumors (P = 0.041, P < 0.001, and P < 0.001, respectively). P27 loss, and mTOR and EGFR positivity were significantly correlated with AFP (P = 0.047, P = 0.004, and P = 0.008, respectively). Angiolymphatic invasion was more commonly seen in EGFR- and ERCC1-positive cases (P = 0.003 and P = 0.005). EGFR was also correlated with histological grade (P = 0.039). No significant correlations were found among PTEN , PI3K, and the clinicopathological parameters. Disease-free or overall survival rates showed significant differences among therapy modalities, AFP levels, angiolymphatic or lymph node invasions, and ERCC1 and p27 expression levels (P < 0.05). Conclusions c-erb-B2, EGFR, mTOR, ERCC1 overexpression levels, and loss of p27 may play roles in

  15. Predicting the outcome of chronic kidney disease by the estimated nephron number: The rationale and design of PRONEP, a prospective, multicenter, observational cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imasawa Toshiyuki

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The nephron number is thought to be associated with the outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD. If the nephron number can be estimated in the clinical setting, it could become a strong tool to predict renal outcome. This study was designed to estimate the nephron number in CKD patients and to establish a method to predict the outcome by using the estimated nephron number. Methods/Design The hypothesis of this study is that the estimated nephron number can predict the outcome of a CKD patient. This will be a multicenter, prospective (minimum 3 and maximum 5 years follow-up study. The subjects will comprise CKD patients aged over 14 years who have undergone a kidney biopsy. From January 2011 to March 2013, we will recruit 600 CKD patients from 10 hospitals belonging to the National Hospital Organization of Japan. The primary parameter for assessment is the composite of total mortality, renal death, cerebro-cardiovascular events, and a 50% reduction in the eGFR. The secondary parameter is the rate of eGFR decline per year. The nephron number will be estimated by the glomerular density in biopsy specimens and the renal cortex volume. This study includes one sub-cohort study to establish the equation to calculate the renal cortex volume. Enrollment will be performed at the time of the kidney biopsy, and the data will consist of a medical interview, ultrasound for measurement of the kidney size, blood or urine test, and the pathological findings of the kidney biopsy. Patients will continue to have medical consultations and receive examinations and/or treatment as usual. The data from the patients will be collected once a year after the kidney biopsy until March 2016. All data using this study are easily obtained in routine clinical practice. Discussion This study includes the first trials to estimate the renal cortex volume and nephron number in the general clinical setting. Furthermore, this is the first prospective study to

  16. The predictive value of transthoracic echocardiographic variables for sinus rhythm maintenance after electrical cardioversion of atrial fibrillation. Results from the CAPRAF study, a prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grundvold, Irene; Tveit, Arnljot; Smith, Pål; Seljeflot, Ingebjørg; Abdelnoor, Michael; Arnesen, Harald

    2008-01-01

    The recurrence rate of atrial fibrillation after electrical cardioversion is disappointingly high. The aim of the present study was to prospectively investigate if standard echocardiographic variables at the day of cardioversion could predict sinus rhythm maintenance. Transthoracic echocardiographic examination was performed within 4 h after cardioversion for all the patients in the CAPRAF (Candesartan in the Prevention of Relapsing Atrial Fibrillation) study. Cardioversion was successful for 137 patients not given specific antiarrhythmic therapy, and only 41 (30%) maintained sinus rhythm at 6-month follow-up. There were significant (p = 0.05) lower transmitral A wave velocities in the group with relapsing atrial fibrillation compared with the group with sinus rhythm at 6-month follow-up. All patients with the lowest A wave velocities had an early recurrence of atrial fibrillation. There were no differences between the groups regarding atrial dimensions or left ventricular function. The use of the angiotensin II receptor antagonist candesartan had no influence on the echocardiographic variables, nor on the recurrence rate of atrial fibrillation after cardioversion. Transthoracic echocardiographic examination performed a short time after electrical cardioversion of atrial fibrillation showed that only A wave peak velocities were significantly predictive of sinus rhythm maintenance 6 months after the procedure. (c) 2008 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  17. Do burnout and work engagement predict depressive symptoms and life satisfaction? A three-wave seven-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hakanen, Jari J; Schaufeli, Wilmar B

    2012-12-10

    Burnout and work engagement have been viewed as opposite, yet distinct states of employee well-being. We investigated whether work-related indicators of well-being (i.e. burnout and work engagement) spill-over and generalize to context-free well-being (i.e. depressive symptoms and life satisfaction). More specifically, we examined the causal direction: does burnout/work engagement lead to depressive symptoms/life satisfaction, or the other way around? Three surveys were conducted. In 2003, 71% of all Finnish dentists were surveyed (n=3255), and the response rate of the 3-year follow-up was 84% (n=2555). The second follow-up was conducted four years later with a response rate of 86% (n=1964). Structural equation modeling was used to investigate the cross-lagged associations between the study variables across time. Burnout predicted depressive symptoms and life dissatisfaction from T1 to T2 and from T2 to T3. Conversely, work engagement had a negative effect on depressive symptoms and a positive effect on life satisfaction, both from T1 to T2 and from T2 to T3, even after adjusting for the impact of burnout at every occasion. The study was conducted among one occupational group, which limits its generalizability. Work-related well-being predicts general wellbeing in the long-term. For example, burnout predicts depressive symptoms and not vice versa. In addition, burnout and work engagement are not direct opposites. Instead, both have unique, incremental impacts on life satisfaction and depressive symptoms. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Adverse psychosocial factors predict poorer prognosis in HIV disease: a meta-analytic review of prospective investigations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chida, Yoichi; Vedhara, Kavita

    2009-05-01

    There is a growing epidemiological literature focusing on the association between psychosocial stress and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease progression or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), but inconsistent findings have been published. We aimed to quantify the association between adverse psychosocial factors and HIV disease progression. We searched Medline; PsycINFO; Web of Science; PubMed up to 19 January 2009, and included population studies with a prospective design that investigated associations between adverse psychosocial factors and HIV disease progression or AIDS. Two reviewers independently extracted data on study characteristics, quality, and estimates of associations. The overall meta-analysis examined 36 articles including 100 psychosocial and disease related relationships. It exhibited a small, but robust positive association between adverse psychosocial factors and HIV progression (correlation coefficient as combined size effect 0.059, 95% confidence interval 0.043-0.074, p<0.001). Notably, sensitivity analyses showed that personality types or coping styles and psychological distress were more strongly associated with greater HIV disease progression than stress stimuli per se, and that all of the immunological and clinical outcome indicators (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome stage, CD4+ T-cell decline, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome diagnosis, acquired immunodeficiency syndrome mortality, and human immunodeficiency virus disease or acquired immunodeficiency syndrome symptoms) except for viral load exhibited detrimental effects by adverse psychosocial factors. In conclusion, the current review reveals a robust relationship between adverse psychosocial factors and HIV disease progression. Furthermore, there would appear to be some evidence for particular psychosocial factors to be most strongly associated with HIV disease progression.

  19. Significance of change in serum bilirubin in predicting left ventricular reverse remodeling and outcomes in heart failure patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosoda, Junya; Ishikawa, Toshiyuki; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Iguchi, Kohei; Matsushita, Hirooki; Ogino, Yutaka; Taguchi, Yuka; Sugano, Teruyasu; Ishigami, Tomoaki; Kimura, Kazuo; Tamura, Kouichi

    2017-11-01

    Research on the correlation of serum bilirubin level with cardiac function as well as outcomes in heart failure patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) has not yet been reported. The aim of this study was to analyze the relationship between change in serum bilirubin level and left ventricular reverse remodeling, and also to clarify the impact of bilirubin change on clinical outcomes in CRT patients. We evaluated 105 consecutive patients who underwent CRT. Patients who had no serum total-bilirubin data at both baseline and 3-9 months' follow-up or had died less than 3 months after CRT implantation were excluded. Accordingly, a total of 69 patients were included in the present analysis. The patients were divided into two groups: decreased bilirubin group (serum total-bilirubin level at follow-up≤that at baseline; n=48) and increased bilirubin group (serum total-bilirubin level at follow-up>that at baseline; n=21). Mean follow-up period was 39.3 months. In the decreased bilirubin group, mean left ventricular end-systolic diameter decreased from 54.5mm to 50.2mm (p=0.001) and mean left ventricular ejection fraction increased significantly from 29.8% to 37.0% (p=0.001). In the increased bilirubin group, there was no significant change in echocardiographic parameters from baseline to follow-up. In Kaplan-Meyer analysis, cardiac mortality combined with heart failure hospitalization in the increased bilirubin group was significantly higher than that in the decreased bilirubin group (log-rank p=0.018). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that increased bilirubin was an independent predictor of cardiac mortality combined with heart failure hospitalization (OR=2.66, p=0.023). The change in serum bilirubin is useful for assessment of left ventricular reverse remodeling and prediction of outcomes in heart failure patients with CRT. Copyright © 2017 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Psychosocial and nonclinical factors predicting hospital utilization in patients of a chronic disease management program: a prospective observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Mark W; Weiland, Tracey J; Phillips, Georgina A

    2015-01-01

    Psychosocial factors such as marital status (odds ratio, 3.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-8.69; P = .006) and nonclinical factors such as outpatient nonattendances (odds ratio, 2.52; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-5.23; P = .013) and referrals made (odds ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.35; P = .003) predict hospital utilization for patients in a chronic disease management program. Along with optimizing patients' clinical condition by prescribed medical guidelines and supporting patient self-management, addressing psychosocial and nonclinical issues are important in attempting to avoid hospital utilization for people with chronic illnesses.

  1. Development of a risk prediction model for lung cancer: The Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charvat, Hadrien; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Shimazu, Taichi; Budhathoki, Sanjeev; Inoue, Manami; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sawada, Norie; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

    2018-03-01

    Although the impact of tobacco consumption on the occurrence of lung cancer is well-established, risk estimation could be improved by risk prediction models that consider various smoking habits, such as quantity, duration, and time since quitting. We constructed a risk prediction model using a population of 59 161 individuals from the Japan Public Health Center (JPHC) Study Cohort II. A parametric survival model was used to assess the impact of age, gender, and smoking-related factors (cumulative smoking intensity measured in pack-years, age at initiation, and time since cessation). Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates were calculated with consideration of the competing risk of death from other causes. Finally, the model was externally validated using 47 501 individuals from JPHC Study Cohort I. A total of 1210 cases of lung cancer occurred during 986 408 person-years of follow-up. We found a dose-dependent effect of tobacco consumption with hazard ratios for current smokers ranging from 3.78 (2.00-7.16) for cumulative consumption ≤15 pack-years to 15.80 (9.67-25.79) for >75 pack-years. Risk decreased with time since cessation. Ten-year cumulative probability of lung cancer occurrence estimates ranged from 0.04% to 11.14% in men and 0.07% to 6.55% in women. The model showed good predictive performance regarding discrimination (cross-validated c-index = 0.793) and calibration (cross-validated χ 2 = 6.60; P-value = .58). The model still showed good discrimination in the external validation population (c-index = 0.772). In conclusion, we developed a prediction model to estimate the probability of developing lung cancer based on age, gender, and tobacco consumption. This model appears useful in encouraging high-risk individuals to quit smoking and undergo increased surveillance. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

  2. Novel biomarker-based model for the prediction of sorafenib response and overall survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hwi Young; Lee, Dong Hyeon; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Cho, Young Youn; Cho, Eun Ju; Yu, Su Jong; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan

    2018-03-20

    Prediction of the outcome of sorafenib therapy using biomarkers is an unmet clinical need in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim was to develop and validate a biomarker-based model for predicting sorafenib response and overall survival (OS). This prospective cohort study included 124 consecutive HCC patients (44 with disease control, 80 with progression) with Child-Pugh class A liver function, who received sorafenib. Potential serum biomarkers (namely, hepatocyte growth factor [HGF], fibroblast growth factor [FGF], vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1, CD117, and angiopoietin-2) were tested. After identifying independent predictors of tumor response, a risk scoring system for predicting OS was developed and 3-fold internal validation was conducted. A risk scoring system was developed with six covariates: etiology, platelet count, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, protein induced by vitamin K absence-II, HGF, and FGF. When patients were stratified into low-risk (score ≤ 5), intermediate-risk (score 6), and high-risk (score ≥ 7) groups, the model provided good discriminant functions on tumor response (concordance [c]-index, 0.884) and 12-month survival (area under the curve [AUC], 0.825). The median OS was 19.0, 11.2, and 6.1 months in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group, respectively (P functions on tumor response (c-index, 0.825) and 12-month survival (AUC, 0.803), and good calibration functions (all P > 0.05 between expected and observed values). This new model including serum FGF and HGF showed good performance in predicting the response to sorafenib and survival in patients with advanced HCC.

  3. Small, dense LDL particles predict changes in intima media thickness and insulin resistance in men with type 2 diabetes and prediabetes--a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philipp A Gerber

    Full Text Available The association of small, dense low-density lipoprotein (sdLDL particles with an increased cardiovascular risk is well established. However, its predictive value with regard to glucose metabolism and arterial disease in patients with type 2 diabetes has not been thoroughly investigated. We conducted a prospective longitudinal cohort study in patients with (prediabetes who were seen at baseline and after two years. sdLDL particles were determined by gradient gel electrophoresis. Insulin resistance was estimated by using the homeostatic model assessment 2 (HOMA2. Intima media thickness (IMT and flow-mediated dilation (FMD were assessed by ultrasound measurements. Fifty-nine patients (mean age 63.0 ± 12.2 years were enrolled and 39 were seen at follow-up. IMT increased in the whole cohort during follow-up. The change in IMT was predicted by the proportion of sdLDL particles at baseline (p=0.03, and the change in FMD was predicted by LDL-cholesterol levels at baseline (p=0.049. HOMA2 and changes in HOMA2 correlated with the proportion of sdLDL particles and changes in this proportion, respectively (p<0.05 for both. Serum resistin levels increased in parallel with the increasing sdLDL particle number, while serum adiponectin increased only in patients with unaltered sdLDL particle number at follow-up (p<0.01 for both. In conclusion, the proportion of small, dense LDL particles and changes in this proportion are predictive of changes in intima media thickness and insulin resistance, and are closely associated with other determinants of an adverse metabolic status. Thus, this parameter extends the individual risk assessment beyond the limitations of traditional risk markers in patients with dysglycemia.

  4. Italian multicenter, prospective study to evaluate the negative predictive value of 16- and 64-slice MDCT imaging in patients scheduled for coronary angiography (NIMISCAD-non invasive multicenter Italian study for coronary artery disease)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marano, Riccardo; Cobelli, Francesco de; Maschio, Alessandro del; Becker, Christoph; Herzog, Christopher; Centonze, Maurizio; Morana, Giovanni; Gualdi, Gian Franco; Ligabue, Guido; Pontone, Gianluca; Catalano, Carlo; Chiappino, Dante; Midiri, Massimo; Simonetti, Giovanni; Marchisio, Filippo; Olivetti, Lucio; Fattori, Rossella; Bonomo, Lorenzo

    2009-01-01

    This was a prospective, multicenter study designed to evaluate the utility of MDCT in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients scheduled for elective coronary angiography (CA) using different MDCT systems from different manufacturers. Twenty national sites prospectively enrolled 367 patients between July 2004 and June 2006. Computed tomography (CT) was performed using a standardized/optimized scan protocol for each type of MDCT system (≥16 slices) and compared with quantitative CA performed within 2 weeks of MDCT. A total of 284 patients (81%) were studied by 16-slice MDCT systems, while 66 patients (19%) by 64-slice MDCT scanners. The primary analysis was on-site/off-site evaluation of the negative predictive value (NPV) on a per-patient basis. Secondary analyses included on-site evaluation on a per-artery and per-segment basis. On-site evaluation included 327 patients (CAD prevalence 58%). NPV, positive predictive value (PPV), sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy (DA) were 0.91 (95% CI 0.85-0.95), 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.95), 0.94 (95% CI 0.89-0.97), 0.88 (95% CI 0.81-0.93), and 0.91 (95% CI 0.88-0.94), respectively. Off-site analysis included 295 patients (CAD prevalence 56%). NPV, PPV, sensitivity, specificity, and DA were 0.73 (95% CI 0.65-0.79), 0.93 (95% CI 0.87-0.97), 0.73 (95% CI 0.65-0.79), 0.93 (95% CI 0.87-0.97), and 0.82 (95% CI 0.77-0.86), respectively. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of MDCT in excluding significant CAD even when conducted by centers with varying degrees of expertise and using different MDCT machines. (orig.)

  5. Comparison of Different Risk Perception Measures in Predicting Seasonal Influenza Vaccination among Healthy Chinese Adults in Hong Kong: A Prospective Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liao, Qiuyan; Wong, Wing Sze; Fielding, Richard

    2013-01-01

    Background Risk perception is a reported predictor of vaccination uptake, but which measures of risk perception best predict influenza vaccination uptake remain unclear. Methodology During the main influenza seasons (between January and March) of 2009 (Wave 1) and 2010 (Wave 2),505 Chinese students and employees from a Hong Kong university completed an online survey. Multivariate logistic regression models were conducted to assess how well different risk perceptions measures in Wave 1 predicted vaccination uptake against seasonal influenza in Wave 2. Principal Findings The results of the multivariate logistic regression models showed that feeling at risk (β = 0.25, p = 0.021) was the better predictor compared with probability judgment while probability judgment (β = 0.25, p = 0.029 ) was better than beliefs about risk in predicting subsequent influenza vaccination uptake. Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk seemed to predict the same aspect of subsequent vaccination uptake because their associations with vaccination uptake became insignificant when paired into the logistic regression model. Similarly, to compare the four scales for assessing probability judgment in predicting vaccination uptake, the 7-point verbal scale remained a significant and stronger predictor for vaccination uptake when paired with other three scales; the 6-point verbal scale was a significant and stronger predictor when paired with the percentage scale or the 2-point verbal scale; and the percentage scale was a significant and stronger predictor only when paired with the 2-point verbal scale. Conclusions/Significance Beliefs about risk and feeling at risk are not well differentiated by Hong Kong Chinese people. Feeling at risk, an affective-cognitive dimension of risk perception predicts subsequent vaccination uptake better than do probability judgments. Among the four scales for assessing risk probability judgment, the 7-point verbal scale offered the best predictive

  6. Fear of food prospectively predicts drive for thinness in an eating disorder sample recently discharged from intensive treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levinson, Cheri A; Brosof, Leigh C; Ma, Jackie; Fewell, Laura; Lenze, Eric J

    2017-12-01

    Fears of food are common in individuals with eating disorders and contribute to the high relapse rates. However, it is unknown how fears of food contribute to eating disorder symptoms across time, potentially contributing to an increased likelihood of relapse. Participants diagnosed with an eating disorder (N=168) who had recently completed intensive treatment were assessed after discharge and one month later regarding fear of food, eating disorder symptoms, anxiety sensitivity, and negative affect. Cross lagged path analysis was utilized to determine if fear of food predicted subsequent eating disorder symptoms one month later. Fear of food-specifically, anxiety about eating and feared concerns about eating-predicted drive for thinness, a core symptom domain of eating disorders. These relationships held while accounting for anxiety sensitivity and negative affect. There is a specific, direct relationship between anxiety about eating and feared concerns about eating and drive for thinness. Future research should test if interventions designed to target fear of food can decrease drive for thinness and thereby prevent relapse. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Sick Leave within 5 Years of Whiplash Trauma Predicts Recovery: A Prospective Cohort and Register-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carstensen, Tina Birgitte Wisbech; Fink, Per; Oernboel, Eva; Kasch, Helge; Jensen, Troels Staehelin; Frostholm, Lisbeth

    2015-01-01

    10-22% of individuals sustaining whiplash trauma develop persistent symptoms resulting in reduced working ability and decreased quality of life, but it is poorly understood why some people do not recover. Various collision and post-collision risk factors have been studied, but little is known about pre-collision risk factors. In particular, the impact of sickness and socioeconomic factors before the collision on recovery is sparsely explored. The aim of this study was to examine if welfare payments received within five years pre-collision predict neck pain and negative change in provisional situation one year post-collision. 719 individuals with acute whiplash trauma consecutively recruited from emergency departments or primary care after car accidents in Denmark completed questionnaires on socio-demographic and health factors immediately after the collision. After 12 months, a visual analogue scale on neck pain intensity was completed. 3595 matched controls in the general population were sampled, and national public register data on social benefits and any other welfare payments were obtained for participants with acute whiplash trauma and controls from five years pre-collision to 15 months after. Participants with acute whiplash trauma who had received sickness benefit for more than 12 weeks pre-collision had increased odds for negative change in future provisional situation (Odds Ratio (OR) (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 3.8 (2.1;7.1)) and future neck pain (OR (95%CI) = 3.3 (1.8;6.3)), controlling for other known risk factors. Participants with acute whiplash trauma had weaker attachment to labour market (more weeks of sick leave (χ2(2) = 36.7, p whiplash trauma raised the odds for future negative change in provisional situation (OR (95%CI) = 3.1 (2.3;4.4)) compared with controls. Sick leave before the collision strongly predicted prolonged recovery following whiplash trauma. Participants with acute whiplash trauma had weaker attachment to labour market pre

  8. Sick Leave within 5 Years of Whiplash Trauma Predicts Recovery: A Prospective Cohort and Register-Based Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carstensen, Tina Birgitte Wisbech; Fink, Per; Oernboel, Eva; Kasch, Helge; Jensen, Troels Staehelin; Frostholm, Lisbeth

    2015-01-01

    Background 10–22% of individuals sustaining whiplash trauma develop persistent symptoms resulting in reduced working ability and decreased quality of life, but it is poorly understood why some people do not recover. Various collision and post-collision risk factors have been studied, but little is known about pre-collision risk factors. In particular, the impact of sickness and socioeconomic factors before the collision on recovery is sparsely explored. The aim of this study was to examine if welfare payments received within five years pre-collision predict neck pain and negative change in provisional situation one year post-collision. Methods and Findings 719 individuals with acute whiplash trauma consecutively recruited from emergency departments or primary care after car accidents in Denmark completed questionnaires on socio-demographic and health factors immediately after the collision. After 12 months, a visual analogue scale on neck pain intensity was completed. 3595 matched controls in the general population were sampled, and national public register data on social benefits and any other welfare payments were obtained for participants with acute whiplash trauma and controls from five years pre-collision to 15 months after. Participants with acute whiplash trauma who had received sickness benefit for more than 12 weeks pre-collision had increased odds for negative change in future provisional situation (Odds Ratio (OR) (95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 3.8 (2.1;7.1)) and future neck pain (OR (95%CI) = 3.3 (1.8;6.3)), controlling for other known risk factors. Participants with acute whiplash trauma had weaker attachment to labour market (more weeks of sick leave (χ2(2) = 36.7, p whiplash trauma raised the odds for future negative change in provisional situation (OR (95%CI) = 3.1 (2.3;4.4)) compared with controls. Conclusions Sick leave before the collision strongly predicted prolonged recovery following whiplash trauma. Participants with acute whiplash trauma

  9. Sick Leave within 5 Years of Whiplash Trauma Predicts Recovery: A Prospective Cohort and Register-Based Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Birgitte Wisbech Carstensen

    Full Text Available 10-22% of individuals sustaining whiplash trauma develop persistent symptoms resulting in reduced working ability and decreased quality of life, but it is poorly understood why some people do not recover. Various collision and post-collision risk factors have been studied, but little is known about pre-collision risk factors. In particular, the impact of sickness and socioeconomic factors before the collision on recovery is sparsely explored. The aim of this study was to examine if welfare payments received within five years pre-collision predict neck pain and negative change in provisional situation one year post-collision.719 individuals with acute whiplash trauma consecutively recruited from emergency departments or primary care after car accidents in Denmark completed questionnaires on socio-demographic and health factors immediately after the collision. After 12 months, a visual analogue scale on neck pain intensity was completed. 3595 matched controls in the general population were sampled, and national public register data on social benefits and any other welfare payments were obtained for participants with acute whiplash trauma and controls from five years pre-collision to 15 months after. Participants with acute whiplash trauma who had received sickness benefit for more than 12 weeks pre-collision had increased odds for negative change in future provisional situation (Odds Ratio (OR (95% Confidence Interval (CI = 3.8 (2.1;7.1 and future neck pain (OR (95%CI = 3.3 (1.8;6.3, controlling for other known risk factors. Participants with acute whiplash trauma had weaker attachment to labour market (more weeks of sick leave (χ2(2 = 36.7, p < 0.001 and unemployment (χ2(2 = 12.5, p = 0.002 pre-collision compared with controls. Experiencing a whiplash trauma raised the odds for future negative change in provisional situation (OR (95%CI = 3.1 (2.3;4.4 compared with controls.Sick leave before the collision strongly predicted prolonged recovery

  10. Psychosocial factors and their predictive value in chiropractic patients with low back pain: a prospective inception cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Breen Alan C

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Being able to estimate the likelihood of poor recovery from episodes of back pain is important for care. Studies of psychosocial factors in inception cohorts in general practice and occupational populations have begun to make inroads to these problems. However, no studies have yet investigated this in chiropractic patients. Methods A prospective inception cohort study of patients presenting to a UK chiropractic practice for new episodes of non-specific low back pain (LBP was conducted. Baseline questionnaires asked about age, gender, occupation, work status, duration of current episode, chronicity, aggravating features and bothersomeness using Deyo's 'Core Set'. Psychological factors (fear-avoidance beliefs, inevitability, anxiety/distress and coping, and co-morbidity were also assessed at baseline. Satisfaction with care, number of attendances and pain impact were determined at 6 weeks. Predictors of poor outcome were sought by the calculation of relative risk ratios. Results Most patients presented within 4 weeks of onset. Of 158 eligible and willing patients, 130 completed both baseline and 6-week follow-up questionnaires. Greatest improvements at 6 weeks were in interference with normal work (ES 1.12 and LBP bothersomeness (ES 1.37. Although most patients began with moderate-high back pain bothersomeness scores, few had high psychometric ones. Co-morbidity was a risk for high-moderate interference with normal work at 6 weeks (RR 2.37; 95% C.I. 1.15–4.74. An episode duration of >4 weeks was associated with moderate to high bothersomeness at 6 weeks (RR 2.07; 95% C.I. 1.19 – 3.38 and negative outlook (inevitability with moderate to high interference with normal work (RR 2.56; 95% C.I. 1.08 – 5.08. Conclusion Patients attending a private UK chiropractic clinic for new episodes of non-specific LBP exhibited few psychosocial predictors of poor outcome, unlike other patient populations that have been studied. Despite

  11. Early identification of work-related stress predicted sickness absence in employed women with musculoskeletal or mental disorders: a prospective, longitudinal study in a primary health care setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmgren, Kristina; Fjällström-Lundgren, Malin; Hensing, Gunnel

    2013-03-01

    The objectives were to identify work-related stress, and to analyse whether or not work-related stress served to predict sick-leave in a population of employed women who saw a doctor due to musculoskeletal or mental disorder at primary health care centres. This prospective study was based on data collected with the Work Stress Questionnaire (WSQ) at baseline 2008 and at follow-up 2009 in the primary health care centres in western Sweden. A total of 198 women participated. High perceived stress owing to indistinct organization and conflicts at baseline increased the risk for sick-leave 8 days or longer at follow-up. The adjusted relative risk (RR) was 2.50 (1.14-5.49). The combination of high stress perception owing to indistinct organization and high stress perception owing to individual demands and commitment increased the risk for sickness absence of 8 days or longer with an adjusted RR of 4.34 (1.72-10.99). Work-related stress predicted sick-leave during the follow-up at 12 months. The WSQ seemed to be useful in identifying women at risk of future sick-leave. Thus, it can be recommended to introduce questions and questionnaires on work-related stress in primary health care settings to early identify women with the need for preventive measures in order to decrease risk for sick-leave due to work-related stress.

  12. Negative perceptions of ageing predict the onset and persistence of depression and anxiety: Findings from a prospective analysis of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Aislinné Theresa; Santini, Ziggi Ivan; Tyrovolas, Stefanos; Rummel-Kluge, Christine; Haro, Josep Maria; Koyanagi, Ai

    2016-07-15

    Although there is a growing literature on the adverse health outcomes related with negative ageing perceptions, studies on their association with mental disorders such as depression and anxiety are scarce. Thus, the aim of the current study was to prospectively assess the association between negative ageing perceptions and incident/persistent depression and anxiety using nationally representative data from Ireland. Data from two consecutive waves of the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) were analysed. The analytical sample consisted of 6095 adults aged ≥50 years. Validated scales for negative ageing perceptions, depression, and anxiety were used. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between negative ageing perceptions at baseline and the onset and persistence of depression and anxiety at