Sample records for shown positive trends

  1. Research Positioning & Trend Identification : a data-analytics toolbox

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ranjbarsahraei, Bijan; Negenborn, R.R.


    AIDA was an initiative of TU Delft scientific staff in cooperation with TU Delft Library and Leiden University’s Centre for Science and Technology Studies (CWTS). The aim of the AIDA project was to provide TU Delft researchers and faculties with easy-to-use tools for research positioning and trend

  2. Divergent estrogen receptor-positive and -negative breast cancer trends and etiologic heterogeneity in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Anderson, William F; Rosenberg, Philip S; Petito, Lucia


    -period-cohort models to estimate age-specific EAPCs, cohort rate ratios and projections for future time periods (2011-2018). In Denmark, the overall rate of ER-positive cancers rose between 1993 and 2010 by 3.0% per year (95% CI: 2.8-3.3% per year), whereas the overall rate of ER-negative cancers fell by 2.1% per year...... (95% CI: -2.5 to -1.6% per year). The ER-positive rate increased fastest among postmenopausal women and the ER-negative rate decreased fastest among premenopausal women, reflecting that cohorts born after 1944 were at relatively higher risk of ER-positive tumors and lower risk of ER-negative tumors......Long-term breast cancer trends in incidence in the United States (US) show rising estrogen receptor (ER)-positive rates and falling ER-negative rates. We hypothesized that these divergent trends reflect etiologic heterogeneity and that comparable trends should be observed in other countries...

  3. Effects of natural disaster trends: a case study for expanding the pre-positioning network of CARE International. (United States)

    Bozkurt, Melda; Duran, Serhan


    The increasing number of natural disasters in the last decade necessitates the increase in capacity and agility while delivering humanitarian relief. A common logistics strategy used by humanitarian organizations to respond this need is the establishment of pre-positioning warehouse networks. In the pre-positioning strategy, critical relief inventories are located near the regions at which they will be needed in advance of the onset of the disaster. Therefore, pre-positioning reduces the response time by totally or partially eliminating the procurement phase and increasing the availability of relief items just after the disaster strikes. Once the pre-positioning warehouse locations are decided and warehouses on those locations become operational, they will be in use for a long time. Therefore, the chosen locations should be robust enough to enable extensions, and to cope with changing trends in disaster types, locations and magnitudes. In this study, we analyze the effects of natural disaster trends on the expansion plan of pre-positioning warehouse network implemented by CARE International. We utilize a facility location model to identify the additional warehouse location(s) for relief items to be stored as an extension of the current warehouse network operated by CARE International, considering changing natural disaster trends observed over the past three decades.

  4. Temporal trends in BMI in Argentina by socio-economic position and province-level economic development, 2005-2009. (United States)

    Christine, Paul J; Diez Roux, Ana V; Wing, Jeffrey J; Alazraqui, Marcio; Spinelli, Hugo


    We investigated temporal trends in BMI, and assessed hypothesized predictors of trends including socio-economic position (SEP) and province-level economic development, in Argentina. Using multivariable linear regression, we evaluated cross-sectional patterning and temporal trends in BMI and examined heterogeneity in these associations by SEP and province-level economic development with nationally representative samples from Argentina in 2005 and 2009. We calculated mean annual changes in BMI for men and women to assess secular trends. Women, but not men, exhibited a strong cross-sectional inverse association between SEP and BMI, with the lowest-SEP women having an average BMI 2.55 kg/m(2) greater than the highest-SEP women. Analysis of trends revealed a mean annual increase in BMI of 0.19 kg/m(2) and 0.15 kg/m(2) for women and men, respectively, with slightly greater increases occurring in provinces with greater economic growth. No significant heterogeneity in trends existed by individual SEP. BMI is increasing rapidly over time in Argentina irrespective of various sociodemographic characteristics. Higher BMI remains more common in women of lower SEP compared with those of higher SEP.

  5. Optimal allocation of trend following strategies (United States)

    Grebenkov, Denis S.; Serror, Jeremy


    We consider a portfolio allocation problem for trend following (TF) strategies on multiple correlated assets. Under simplifying assumptions of a Gaussian market and linear TF strategies, we derive analytical formulas for the mean and variance of the portfolio return. We construct then the optimal portfolio that maximizes risk-adjusted return by accounting for inter-asset correlations. The dynamic allocation problem for n assets is shown to be equivalent to the classical static allocation problem for n2 virtual assets that include lead-lag corrections in positions of TF strategies. The respective roles of asset auto-correlations and inter-asset correlations are investigated in depth for the two-asset case and a sector model. In contrast to the principle of diversification suggesting to treat uncorrelated assets, we show that inter-asset correlations allow one to estimate apparent trends more reliably and to adjust the TF positions more efficiently. If properly accounted for, inter-asset correlations are not deteriorative but beneficial for portfolio management that can open new profit opportunities for trend followers. These concepts are illustrated using daily returns of three highly correlated futures markets: the E-mini S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50 index, and the US 10-year T-note futures.

  6. Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere (United States)

    Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.


    We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

  7. North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability (United States)

    Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.


    Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

  8. Spatial correlation in precipitation trends in the Brazilian Amazon (United States)

    Buarque, Diogo Costa; Clarke, Robin T.; Mendes, Carlos Andre Bulhoes


    A geostatistical analysis of variables derived from Amazon daily precipitation records (trends in annual precipitation totals, trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, trend in length of dry spell, trend in number of wet days per year) gave results that are consistent with those previously reported. Averaged over the Brazilian Amazon region as a whole, trends in annual maximum precipitations were slightly negative, the trend in the length of dry spell was slightly positive, and the trend in the number of wet days in the year was slightly negative. For trends in annual maximum precipitation accumulated over 1-5 days, spatial correlation between trends was found to extend up to a distance equivalent to at least half a degree of latitude or longitude, with some evidence of anisotropic correlation. Time trends in annual precipitation were found to be spatially correlated up to at least ten degrees of separation, in both W-E and S-N directions. Anisotropic spatial correlation was strongly evident in time trends in length of dry spell with much stronger evidence of spatial correlation in the W-E direction, extending up to at least five degrees of separation, than in the S-N. Because the time trends analyzed are shown to be spatially correlated, it is argued that methods at present widely used to test the statistical significance of climate trends over time lead to erroneous conclusions if spatial correlation is ignored, because records from different sites are assumed to be statistically independent.

  9. The main trends in clinical use of radionuclides in oncology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agranat, V.Z.


    The main trends of using radionuclide methods in clinical oncology are shown. Two main aspects of using radionuclide methods are pointed out: radionuclide investigation of the primary tumour as ''local'' manifestation of the cancer disease, radionuclide investigation of the body ''response'' to the tumour process. Each of the aspects of the problem is briefly considered on some examples. Examples of positive scintigraphy of tumours are given. It is shown that tumorotropic properties of some radionuclides make possible using visualization methods realizing the differential diagnosis of some tumours. Considered are direct and indirect signs which allow determining the presence of metastases and testifying to the tumour process spread

  10. Trends in chlamydia and gonorrhea positivity among heterosexual men and men who have sex with men attending a large urban sexual health service in Australia, 2002-2009 (United States)


    Background To determine whether chlamydia positivity among heterosexual men (MSW) and chlamydia and gonorrhea positivity among men who have sex with men (MSM), are changing. Methods Computerized records for men attending a large sexual health clinic between 2002 and 2009 were analyzed. Chlamydia and gonorrhea positivity were calculated and logistic regression used to assess changes over time. Results 17769 MSW and 8328 MSM tested for chlamydia and 7133 MSM tested for gonorrhea. In MSW, 7.37% (95% CI: 6.99-7.77) were chlamydia positive; the odds of chlamydia positivity increased by 4% per year (OR = 1.04; 95% CI: 1.01-1.07; p = 0.02) after main risk factors were adjusted for. In MSM, 3.70% (95% CI: 3.30-4.14) were urethral chlamydia positive and 5.36% (95% CI: 4.82-5.96) were anal chlamydia positive; positivity could not be shown to have changed over time. In MSM, 3.05% (95% CI: 2.63-3.53) tested anal gonorrhea positive and 1.83% (95% CI: 1.53-2.18) tested pharyngeal gonorrhea positive. Univariate analysis found the odds of anal gonorrhea positivity had decreased (OR = 0.93; 95% CI: 0.87-1.00; p = 0.05), but adjusting for main risk factors resulted in no change. Urethral gonorrhea cases in MSM as a percentage of all MSM tested for gonorrhea also fell (p gonorrhea prevalence among MSM is stable or declining. High STI testing rates among MSM in Australia may explain differences in STI trends between MSM and MSW. PMID:21639943

  11. Trends of the global radiation and sunshine hours in 1961-1998 and their relationships in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Rensheng; Kang Ersi; Ji Xibin; Yang Jianping; Zhang Zhihui


    Trends of the yearly global radiation E g , annual sunshine hours S, yearly precipitation P and yearly averaged air temperature T at 51 stations in 1961-1998 in China were detected, and the significance test method was the F-test. A total of 47 stations showed decreasing trend in the E g series of which 35 passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. At 42 stations, the trend of S was also decreasing, and 36 of them passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. The P series did not change largely in 1961-1998 and at 37 stations showed a positive trend, while the positive trend or reduced trend at 39 stations did not pass the F-test at the 25% significant level. The positive trend of the T series was shown at 49 stations, of which 29 passed the F-test at the 1% significant level. In the yearly scale, the empirical relationship between E g and S at any station was very low because the length of the E g series was too short. When using all the data at the used 51 stations together to simulate E g , the results were good. Using the longitude λ, latitude φ and altitude H, or/and P and T, of the used stations to adjust the parameters a and b of the Angstroem model, respectively, or just to adjust the parameter a, the results will be better. The parameter b of the Angstroem model was little affected by the geographical position of the used stations. At last, a simple equation is recommended to use for simulation of the yearly global radiation in China

  12. German 2020 Energy Transition Index. Favourable trend, but no breakthrough; Energiewende-Index Deutschland 2020. Positive Tendenzen, aber noch keine Trendwende

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vahlenkamp, Thomas; Frunzetti, Katharina [McKinsey and Company, Duesseldorf (Germany); Peters, Michael [McKinsey and Company, Berlin (Germany)


    Introduced in autumn 2012 and updated twice a year since, the German 2020 Energy Transition Index (EWI) shows its first signs ever of a favourable trend. At last the indicators have got moving, even though one can hardly speak of a breakthrough yet. In spite of the positive trend, especially in regard to electricity consumption and the rate of newly installed offshore wind power capacity, the envisaged goals are still a long way off. This holds particularly for major indicators such as CO{sub 2} emissions and price levels of household and industrial electricity.

  13. A trend analysis of laboratory positive propoxyphene workplace urine drug screens before and after the product recall. (United States)

    Price, James


    Propoxyphene was withdrawn from the US market in November 2010. This drug is still tested for in the workplace as part of expanded panel nonregulated testing. A convenience sample of urine specimens (n = 7838) were provided by workers from various industries. The percentage of positive specimens with 95% confidence intervals was calculated for each year of the study. Logistic regression was used to assess the impact of the year upon the propoxyphene result. The prevalence of positive propoxyphene tests was much higher before the product's withdrawal from the market. Logistic regression provided evidence of a decreasing linear trend (P < 0.000; β = -0.71). The odds ratio signifies that for every additional year the urine specimens were 0.49 times less likely to be positive for propoxyphene. This favors the determination that the change in propoxyphene positive drug test over the years is not by chance. The conclusion supports no longer performing nonregulated workplace propoxyphene urine drug testing for this population.

  14. Trends in infant bedding use: National Infant Sleep Position study, 1993-2010. (United States)

    Shapiro-Mendoza, Carrie K; Colson, Eve R; Willinger, Marian; Rybin, Denis V; Camperlengo, Lena; Corwin, Michael J


    Use of potentially hazardous bedding, as defined by the American Academy of Pediatrics (eg, pillows, quilts, comforters, loose bedding), is a modifiable risk factor for sudden infant death syndrome and unintentional sleep-related suffocation. The proportion of US infants sleeping with these types of bedding is unknown. To investigate the US prevalence of and trends in bedding use, we analyzed 1993-2010 data from the National Infant Sleep Position study. Infants reported as being usually placed to sleep with blankets, quilts, pillows, and other similar materials under or covering them in the last 2 weeks were classified as bedding users. Logistic regression was used to describe characteristics associated with bedding use. From 1993 to 2010, bedding use declined but remained a widespread practice (moving average of 85.9% in 1993-1995 to 54.7% in 2008-2010). Prevalence was highest for infants of teen-aged mothers (83.5%) and lowest for infants born at term (55.6%). Bedding use was also frequently reported among infants sleeping in adult beds, on their sides, and on a shared surface. The rate of decline in bedding use was markedly less from 2001-2010 compared with 1993-2000. For 2007 to 2010, the strongest predictors (adjusted odds ratio: ≥1.5) of bedding use were young maternal age, non-white race and ethnicity, and not being college educated. Bedding use for infant sleep remains common despite recommendations against this practice. Understanding trends in bedding use is important for tailoring safe sleep interventions. Copyright © 2015 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

  15. The impact of North Atlantic wind and cyclone trends on European precipitation and significant wave height in the Atlantic. (United States)

    Trigo, Ricardo M; Valente, Maria A; Trigo, Isabel F; Miranda, Pedro M A; Ramos, Alexandre M; Paredes, Daniel; García-Herrera, Ricardo


    An analysis of the frequency of cyclones and surface wind velocity for the Euro-Atlantic sector is performed by means of an objective methodology. Monthly and seasonal trends of cyclones and wind speed magnitude are computed and trends between 1960 and 2000 evaluated. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February, and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind magnitude trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low-pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends in the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (October-March), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s/year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for January-March are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of lat 50 degrees N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5 cm/year just north of Scotland). Trends in European precipitation are assessed using the Climatic Research Unit data set. The results of the assessment emphasize the link with the corresponding tendencies of cyclone frequencies. Finally, it is shown that these changes are associated, to a large extent, with the preferred phases of major large-scale atmospheric circulation modes, particularly with the North Atlantic Oscillation, the eastern Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

  16. Oxygen-isotope trends and seawater temperature changes across the Late Cambrian Steptoean positive carbon-isotope excursion (SPICE event) (United States)

    Elrick, M.; Rieboldt, S.; Saltzman, M.; McKay, R.M.


    The globally recognized Late Cambrian Steptoean positive C-isotope excursion (SPICE) is characterized by a 3???-5??? positive ??13C shift spanning SPICE represents a widespread ocean anoxic event leading to enhanced burial/preservation of organic matter (Corg) and pyrite. We analyzed ??18O values of apatitic inarticulate brachiopods from three Upper Cambrian successions across Laurentia to evaluate paleotemperatures during the SPICE. ??18O values range from ~12.5??? to 16.5???. Estimated seawater temperatures associated with the SPICE are unreasonably warm, suggesting that the brachiopod ??18O values were altered during early diagenesis. Despite this, all three localities show similar trends with respect to the SPICE ??13C curve, suggesting that the brachiopod apatite preserves a record of relative ??18O and temperature changes. The trends include relatively high ??18O values at the onset of the SPICE, decreasing and lowest values during the main event, and an increase in values at the end of the event. The higher ??18O values during the global extinction at the onset of the SPICE suggests seawater cooling and supports earlier hypotheses of upwelling of cool waters onto the shallow shelf. Decreasing and low ??18O values coincident with the rising limb of the SPICE support the hypothesis that seawater warming and associated reduced thermohaline circulation rates contributed to decreased dissolved O2 concentrations, which enhanced the preservation/burial of Corg causing the positive ??13C shift. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

  17. Prevalence of Obesity Among Inuit in Greenland and Temporal Trend by Social Position

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjerregaard, Peter; Jørgensen, Marit Eika


    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to analyze the temporal trend of obesity among Inuit in Greenland during 1993-2010 according to sex and relative social position. METHODS: Data (N = 5,123) were collected in cross-sectional health surveys among the Inuit in Greenland in 1993-1994, 1999......-2001, and 2005-2010. Sociodemographic information was obtained by interview. Information on obesity (body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference) was obtained by clinical examination and in 1993-1994 by interview. Statistics included multiple linear regression and Univariate General Linear Models. RESULTS......: Among men the prevalence of overweight (BMI 25-29.9) decreased while general obesity (BMI ≥ 30) did not change. Central obesity increased from 16.0% in 1993-1994 to 25.4% in 2005-2010 (P obesity increased. Central obesity increased from 31.3% in 1993-1994 to 54...

  18. Wage Sorting Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bagger, Jesper; Vejlin, Rune Majlund; Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke

    Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001. The non......Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001....... The nonstationary wage sorting pattern is not due to compositional changes in the labor market, primarily occurs among high wage workers, and comprises 41 percent of the increase in the standard deviation of log real wages between 1980 and 2006. We show that the wage sorting trend is associated with worker...

  19. Trends in Infant Bedding Use: National Infant Sleep Position Study, 1993–2010 (United States)

    Colson, Eve R.; Willinger, Marian; Rybin, Denis V.; Camperlengo, Lena; Corwin, Michael J.


    BACKGROUND: Use of potentially hazardous bedding, as defined by the American Academy of Pediatrics (eg, pillows, quilts, comforters, loose bedding), is a modifiable risk factor for sudden infant death syndrome and unintentional sleep-related suffocation. The proportion of US infants sleeping with these types of bedding is unknown. METHODS: To investigate the US prevalence of and trends in bedding use, we analyzed 1993–2010 data from the National Infant Sleep Position study. Infants reported as being usually placed to sleep with blankets, quilts, pillows, and other similar materials under or covering them in the last 2 weeks were classified as bedding users. Logistic regression was used to describe characteristics associated with bedding use. RESULTS: From 1993 to 2010, bedding use declined but remained a widespread practice (moving average of 85.9% in 1993–1995 to 54.7% in 2008–2010). Prevalence was highest for infants of teen-aged mothers (83.5%) and lowest for infants born at term (55.6%). Bedding use was also frequently reported among infants sleeping in adult beds, on their sides, and on a shared surface. The rate of decline in bedding use was markedly less from 2001–2010 compared with 1993–2000. For 2007 to 2010, the strongest predictors (adjusted odds ratio: ≥1.5) of bedding use were young maternal age, non-white race and ethnicity, and not being college educated. CONCLUSIONS: Bedding use for infant sleep remains common despite recommendations against this practice. Understanding trends in bedding use is important for tailoring safe sleep interventions. PMID:25452654

  20. Are trends in total electron content (TEC) really positive?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Laštovička, Jan


    Roč. 118, č. 6 (2013), s. 3831-3835 ISSN 2169-9380 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/10/1792 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : Long-term trends * total electron content Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 3.440, year: 2013

  1. A dipole-like SST trend in the Somalia region during the monsoon season (United States)

    Santos, F.; Gómez-Gesteira, M.; deCastro, M.; Días, J. M.


    SST trends measured in the Somalia region during the southwest monsoon season over the period 1982-2013 have shown the existence of a warming-cooling dipole. The positive spot, with a warming trend on the order of 0.37°C dec-1, is centered around 5.1°N-50.3°E and the negative one, with a trend on the order of -0.43°C dec-1, around 11.1°N-52.2°E. The migration of the Great Whirl (GW) over the last three decades at a speed of -0.3°C dec-1 in longitude and -0.6°C dec-1 in latitude was considered as the possible origin of the SST dipole. The displacement of the GW produces changes in the geostrophic currents which, in turn, generate changes in the amount of advected water from and to coast.

  2. Water vapour trends at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morales, L.; Mattar, C.; Da-Silva, L.; Abarca, R.


    In this paper water vapour trends were analyzed at several tropospheric levels over South America between 1973 and 2003. It was carried out using in situ values retrieved by 15 radiosonde stations and NCEP NCAR Reanalysis data (NNR). NNR and radiosonde water vapour data were linked to Koeppen-Geiger climatic zones to calculate anomalies, trends, and the non-parametric statistical significance for each mandatory level. A methodology used to process radiosonde data is shown. Water vapour trends in tropical climates presented positive decadal trends. This is statistically significant for the first mandatory levels retrieved by radiosonde. The highest values are presented in average with NNR; the decadal magnitude for climate Af being 0.15 g kg -1 for 1000 and 925 h Pa, and for climate As 0.27 g kg -1 for 925 and 850 h Pa. For non-tropical climates the magnitude trends of specific humidity are affected by the spatial resolution of NNR, which is seen when comparing the results received by the radiosondes. Finally, this paper shows the initial results of water vapour content trends in the last three decades over South America. Strong climatic events and synoptic oscillations were not commented upon.

  3. Interpreting space-based trends in carbon monoxide with multiple models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Strode


    Full Text Available We use a series of chemical transport model and chemistry climate model simulations to investigate the observed negative trends in MOPITT CO over several regions of the world, and to examine the consistency of time-dependent emission inventories with observations. We find that simulations driven by the MACCity inventory, used for the Chemistry Climate Modeling Initiative (CCMI, reproduce the negative trends in the CO column observed by MOPITT for 2000–2010 over the eastern United States and Europe. However, the simulations have positive trends over eastern China, in contrast to the negative trends observed by MOPITT. The model bias in CO, after applying MOPITT averaging kernels, contributes to the model–observation discrepancy in the trend over eastern China. This demonstrates that biases in a model's average concentrations can influence the interpretation of the temporal trend compared to satellite observations. The total ozone column plays a role in determining the simulated tropospheric CO trends. A large positive anomaly in the simulated total ozone column in 2010 leads to a negative anomaly in OH and hence a positive anomaly in CO, contributing to the positive trend in simulated CO. These results demonstrate that accurately simulating variability in the ozone column is important for simulating and interpreting trends in CO.

  4. A study of the variation of colonic positioning in the pararenal space as shown by computed tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prassopoulos, P.; Gourtsoyiannis, N.; Cavouras, D.; Pantelidis, N.


    In a review of 1708 consecutive CT examinations of the abdomen the position of the ascending and descending colon in relation to the posterial and lateral edge of the kidney was studied. It was found that part of the colon was positioned posterior or posterolateral to the kidney's edge in percentages that varied between 14.2% and 0.9% in the different sex groups at the levels of upper, mid- and lower poles of the right and left kidney. It is concluded that this anatomical variation should be known if colon perforation is to be avoided during percutaneous nephrostomy of biopsy. (author). 15 refs.; 4 figs.; 2 tabs

  5. Mixed layer depth trends in the Bay of Biscay over the period 1975-2010.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xurxo Costoya

    Full Text Available Wintertime trends in mixed layer depth (MLD were calculated in the Bay of Biscay over the period 1975-2010 using the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA package. The reliability of the SODA database was confirmed correlating its results with those obtained from the experimental Argo database over the period 2003-2010. An iso-thermal layer depth (TLD and an iso-pycnal layer depth (PLD were defined using the threshold difference method with ΔT = 0.5°C and Δσθ = 0.125 kg/m3. Wintertime trends of the MLD were calculated using winter extended (December-March anomalies and annual maxima. Trends calculated for the whole Bay of Biscay using both parameters (TLD and PLD showed to be dependent on the area. Thus, MLD became deeper in the southeastern corner and shallower in the rest of the area. Air temperature was shown to play a key role in regulating the different spatial behavior of the MLD. Negative air temperature trends localized in the southeastern corner coincide with MLD deepening in this area, while, positive air temperature trends are associated to MLD shoaling in the rest of the bay. Additionally, the temperature trend calculated along the first 700 m of the water column is in good agreement with the different spatial behavior revealed for the MLD trend.

  6. Trend analyses with river sediment rating curves (United States)

    Warrick, Jonathan A.


    Sediment rating curves, which are fitted relationships between river discharge (Q) and suspended-sediment concentration (C), are commonly used to assess patterns and trends in river water quality. In many of these studies it is assumed that rating curves have a power-law form (i.e., C = aQb, where a and b are fitted parameters). Two fundamental questions about the utility of these techniques are assessed in this paper: (i) How well to the parameters, a and b, characterize trends in the data? (ii) Are trends in rating curves diagnostic of changes to river water or sediment discharge? As noted in previous research, the offset parameter, a, is not an independent variable for most rivers, but rather strongly dependent on b and Q. Here it is shown that a is a poor metric for trends in the vertical offset of a rating curve, and a new parameter, â, as determined by the discharge-normalized power function [C = â (Q/QGM)b], where QGM is the geometric mean of the Q values sampled, provides a better characterization of trends. However, these techniques must be applied carefully, because curvature in the relationship between log(Q) and log(C), which exists for many rivers, can produce false trends in â and b. Also, it is shown that trends in â and b are not uniquely diagnostic of river water or sediment supply conditions. For example, an increase in â can be caused by an increase in sediment supply, a decrease in water supply, or a combination of these conditions. Large changes in water and sediment supplies can occur without any change in the parameters, â and b. Thus, trend analyses using sediment rating curves must include additional assessments of the time-dependent rates and trends of river water, sediment concentrations, and sediment discharge.

  7. Trends in gender differences in accidents mortality: Relationships to changing gender roles and other societal trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inga Earle


    Full Text Available This study tests five hypotheses concerning trends in gender differences in accidents mortality and accident-related behavior, using data for the US, UK, France, Italy, and Japan, 1950-98. As predicted by the Convergence Hypothesis, gender differences have decreased for amount of driving, motor vehicle accidents mortality, and occupational accidents mortality. However, for many types of accidents mortality, gender differences were stable or increased; these trends often resulted from the differential impact on male and female mortality of general societal trends such as increased illicit drug use or improved health care. Similarly, trends in gender differences in accident-related behavior have shown substantial variation and appear to have been influenced by multiple factors, including gender differences in rates of adoption of different types of innovations.

  8. Markov Trends in Macroeconomic Time Series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Paap (Richard)


    textabstractMany macroeconomic time series are characterised by long periods of positive growth, expansion periods, and short periods of negative growth, recessions. A popular model to describe this phenomenon is the Markov trend, which is a stochastic segmented trend where the slope depends on the

  9. FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends. (United States)

    Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar


    The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (, based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

  10. The Effect of Recent Trends on Dental Hygiene. (United States)

    Douglass, Chester W.


    Six trends affecting dental hygiene practice are discussed: demographic changes; disease pattern changes; higher societal expectations; financing and delivery system changes; technological advancement; and regulatory and legislative trends. It is argued that, though the trends reflect positively on dental hygiene, practitioners need to increase…

  11. Long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) (United States)

    Laštovička, Jan


    The long-term trends in the total electron content (TEC) have very little been studied. Lean et al. (2011; J. Geophys. Res., 116, A00H04, doi:10.1029/2010JA016378) studied trends in TEC globally based on JPL maps for 1995-2010. However, their trends appear to be too positive, which is not plausible taking into account the trends in other ionospheric parameters. Therefore they prefer the less positive trends calculated under the assumption of the same level of solar activity in solar cycle minima 22/23 and 23/24. However, as it is now clear, this is not a correct assumption. Lastovicka (2013; J. Geophys. Res. Space Phys., 118, 3831-3835, doi:10.1002/jgra.50261) selected a region around Florence, Italy, as a region with available historical TEC data based on Faraday rotation measurements and remarkably larger than average trends in TEC by Lean et al. (2011). Historical data from Florence provide no trend in TEC. However, foF2 from Juliusruh provide slight negative trends for 1976-1996 but no trends for 1995-2010. Thus the question of reality of trends by Lean et al. (2011) remained open. Here we use TEC from GIM and JPL data for two European regions with high Lean's trends, regions around Florence and around Prague, using 10-14 LT medians, 1998-2015, yearly average values. A classical approach is applied. First a model of solar activity dependence of TEC is constructed separately for each region from all data. Then model data are subtracted from experimental data and analysis is made with residuals. This analysis shows that early data (1998-2001) are by several TECU lower than they should be according to solar activity, the year 2002 is intermediate and in 2003-2015 the data fit well a weak or rather no trend of TEC. The change in TEC data does not seem to be jump-like, it lasted at least a year, if not longer. Thus the positive TEC trends reported by Lean et al. (2011) appear to be affected by data problem; real trends are evidently less positive if any.

  12. Long-term trends of foE and geomagnetic activity variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Mikhailov


    Full Text Available A relationship between foE trends and geomagnetic activity long-term variations has been revealed for the first time. By analogy with earlier obtained results on the foF2 trends it is possible to speak about the geomagnetic control of the foE long-term trends as well. Periods of increasing geomagnetic activity correspond to negative foE trends, while these trends are positive for the decreasing phase of geomagnetic activity. This "natural" relationship breaks down around 1970 (on some stations later when pronounced positive foE trends have appeared on most of the stations considered. The dependence of foE trends on geomagnetic activity can be related with nitric oxide variations at the E-layer heights. The positive foE trends that appeared after the "break down" effect may also be explained by the [NO] decrease which is not related to geomagnetic activity variations. But negative trends or irregular foE variations on some stations for the same time period require some different mechanism. Chemical pollution of the lower thermosphere due to the anthropogenic activity may be responsible for such abnormal foE behavior after the end of the 1960s.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances

  13. Sea surface temperature trends in the coastal ocean


    Amos, C.L.; Al-Rashidi, Thamer B.; Rakha, Karim; El-Gamily, Hamdy; Nicholls, R.J.


    Sea surface temperature (SST) trends in the coastal zone are shown to be increasing at rates that exceed the global trends by up to an order of magnitude. This paper compiles some of the evidence of the trends published in the literature. The evidence suggests that urbanization in the coastal hinterland is having a direct effect on SST through increased temperatures of river and lake waters, as well as through heated run-off and thermal effluent discharges from coastal infrastructure. These l...

  14. [Mobbing and violence at school. Trends from 2002 to 2010]. (United States)

    Melzer, W; Oertel, L; Ottova, V


    The purpose of this study was to undertake an assessment and differentiated examination of the development of bullying and violence in schools between 2002 and 2010 in Germany.We examined the national German data of Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study in 2002, 2006 and 2010. A paper-pencil questionnaire was distributed to a representative sample (N=17 929) of 11-, 13- and 15-year-old school children. The evaluation of the data was done by descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses, controlled by age, gender, family affluence, school type and survey year.A clear positive trend could be identified: from 2002 to 2010 the number of bullies and bully victims decreased whereas the group of the uninvolved pupils increased. There was a delay in this trend for children with low family affluence.The obvious success in the prevention of violence is shown by the decreasing rate of bullies. The paper discusses whether future prevention should focus more on victims and children with educationally deprived background. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  15. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region (United States)

    Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam


    We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  16. Trend Analysis of Pahang River Using Non-Parametric Analysis: Mann Kendalls Trend Test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nur Hishaam Sulaiman; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Mohd Khairul Amri Kamarudin; Ahmad Dasuki Mustafa; Muhammad Azizi Amran; Fazureen Azaman; Ismail Zainal Abidin; Norsyuhada Hairoma


    Flood is common in Pahang especially during northeast monsoon season from November to February. Three river cross station: Lubuk Paku, Sg. Yap and Temerloh were selected as area of this study. The stream flow and water level data were gathered from DID record. Data set for this study were analysed by using non-parametric analysis, Mann-Kendall Trend Test. The results that obtained from stream flow and water level analysis indicate that there are positively significant trend for Lubuk Paku (0.001) and Sg. Yap (<0.0001) from 1972-2011 with the p-value < 0.05. Temerloh (0.178) data from 1963-2011 recorded no trend for stream flow parameter but negative trend for water level parameter. Hydrological pattern and trend are extremely affected by outside factors such as north east monsoon season that occurred in South China Sea and affected Pahang during November to March. There are other factors such as development and management of the areas which can be considered as factors affected the data and results. Hydrological Pattern is important to indicate the river trend such as stream flow and water level. It can be used as flood mitigation by local authorities. (author)

  17. Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) (United States)

    Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.


    Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

  18. Study of the epicentral trends and depth sections for aftershocks of ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    R. Narasimhan (Krishtel eMaging) 1461 1996 Oct 15 13:05:22


    Jan 26, 2001 ... war trend and ENE-WSW Satpura trend as shown in figure 1. The NE-SW ... and terminates in the Gulf of Kutch. A few more lineaments along this ..... mitting us to present this paper in the international seminar at New Delhi.

  19. Trend time-series modeling and forecasting with neural networks. (United States)

    Qi, Min; Zhang, G Peter


    Despite its great importance, there has been no general consensus on how to model the trends in time-series data. Compared to traditional approaches, neural networks (NNs) have shown some promise in time-series forecasting. This paper investigates how to best model trend time series using NNs. Four different strategies (raw data, raw data with time index, detrending, and differencing) are used to model various trend patterns (linear, nonlinear, deterministic, stochastic, and breaking trend). We find that with NNs differencing often gives meritorious results regardless of the underlying data generating processes (DGPs). This finding is also confirmed by the real gross national product (GNP) series.

  20. Trends in mercury wet deposition and mercury air concentrations across the U.S. and Canada (United States)

    Weiss-Penzias, Peter S.; Gay, David A.; Brigham, Mark E.; Parsons, Matthew T.; Gustin, Mae S.; ter Shure, Arnout


    This study examined the spatial and temporal trends of mercury (Hg) in wet deposition and air concentrations in the United States (U.S.) and Canada between 1997 and 2013. Data were obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and Environment Canada monitoring networks, and other sources. Of the 19 sites with data records from 1997–2013, 53% had significant negative trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, while no sites had significant positive trends, which is in general agreement with earlier studies that considered NADP data up until about 2010. However, for the time period 2007–2013 (71 sites), 17% and 13% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively, and for the time period 2008–2013 (81 sites) 30% and 6% of the sites had significant positive and negative trends, respectively. Non-significant positive tendencies were also widespread. Regional trend analyses revealed significant positive trends in Hg concentration in the Rocky Mountains, Plains, and Upper Midwest regions for the recent time periods in addition to significant positive trends in Hg deposition for the continent as a whole. Sulfate concentration trends in wet deposition were negative in all regions, suggesting a lower importance of local Hg sources. The trend in gaseous elemental Hg from short-term datasets merged as one continuous record was broadly consistent with trends in Hg concentration in wet deposition, with the early time period (1998–2007) producing a significantly negative trend (− 1.5 ± 0.2% year− 1) and the recent time period (2008–2013) displaying a flat slope (− 0.3 ± 0.1% year− 1, not significant). The observed shift to more positive or less negative trends in Hg wet deposition primarily seen in the Central-Western regions is consistent with the effects of rising Hg emissions from regions outside the U.S. and Canada and the influence of long-range transport in the free troposphere.

  1. GEANT4 simulation diagram showing the architecture of the ATLAS test line: the detectors are positioned to receive the beam from the SPS. A muon particle which enters the magnet and crosses all detectors is shown (blue line).

    CERN Multimedia


    GEANT4 simulation diagram showing the architecture of the ATLAS test line: the detectors are positioned to receive the beam from the SPS. A muon particle which enters the magnet and crosses all detectors is shown (blue line).


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Micu Alexandra


    Full Text Available Over the last years, management have been facing a series of profound changes in trends coming and going, one being more productive than other or causing more damage when applied improperly. The paper focuses on the last trends in management that have evolved in the last years, trends that have been marked by a Darwinian business environment and made more unforgiving since the financial crisis and the innovations in technology, social media and management philosophy. The paper will present and describe the most important new trends in management that enabled select organisations to remain competitive and overcome the multiple difficulties caused by the ever-changing economy based on a qualitative research. From the “outside innovation” that is considered always to be the key in overcoming the obstacles facing an organization, to the new buzzword “design”, that is said to ensure the organization long-term competitive advantage, the paper will analyse new trends and also will be describing the impact they have on the welfare of the organization. The research has also shown that managers tend to put a greater accent on searching for innovation rather than efficiency in order to ensure a continuous progress in the organization and to maintain business sustainability. The paper will not be comparing the efficiency of these different philosophies, or the results they generated, as time will still be the ultimate judge.

  3. Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods (United States)

    Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.


    Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

  4. Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. T. Akhil Raj


    Full Text Available We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993–2005, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004–2015, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002–2015 on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics observations covering the period 1993–2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E, covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (−1.71 ± 0.49 K decade−1 and New Delhi (−1.15 ± 0.55 K decade−1. The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998–2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (∼ 10 hPa and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

  5. Std trends in chengalpattu hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishnamurthy V


    Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs at Chengalpattu during 1988-1994. Of the 4549 patients who attended the clinic 3621 (79.6% were males and 928 (20.4% were females. The commonest STD was Chancroid (24.4% in men and Syphillis (29% in women. Balanoposthitis (11.4% ranked third among STDs in males. Though the STD attendance showed a declining trend, most diseases showed a constant distribution. The percentage composition of secondary and latent syphillis, Genital Warts, Genital Herpes and the Non-Venereal group showed an increased composition in recent years. Primary syphillis in females showed a definite declining trend. The HIV sero-positive detection rate was 2.06%. Of the 1116 patients screened for HIV antibody, 23 patients were detected sero-positive. Time Series Regression Analysis was used to predict the number of patients who would attend the STD clinic with various STDs in 1995 and 1996 to help in the understanding of the disease load and pattern in future, in resources management and in developing and evaluating preventive measures.

  6. Housing and Urban Development trends in Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karel Schmeidler


    Full Text Available This article describes housing trends in Czech Republic, which are determined by social, economic, technical and cultural changes of last two decades In Central Europe. Those trends have positive and also negative sides: positive can be seen the quantitative and qualitative growth of housing space, variety of architectural solutions for individualised customer. Negative aspect is urban sprawl, which together with individual automobile occupancy destroys nature, space and land values. Future development is inevitable, proper design of housing needs sensitive multidisciplinal attitude and understanding of the needs of man and nature.

  7. Trends in the Information Industry. (United States)

    Hogan, Thomas H.


    The current president of the American Society for Information Science shares his observations about the information industry, identifying positive and negative trends, and discusses the role ASIS can play in the continuing growth of the industry. (Author/CLB)

  8. An Examination of Cooper's Test for Monotonic Trend (United States)

    Hsu, Louis


    A statistic for testing monotonic trend that has been presented in the literature is shown not to be the binomial random variable it is contended to be, but rather it is linearly related to Kendall's tau statistic. (JKS)

  9. New trends in RFQ-development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schempp, A.


    New trends in RFQ-development depending on the design goals are presented. Designs for heavy ion RFQs and for highly charged light ions from EBIS source are given. The use of the RFQ to accelerate beams, to accelerate very heavy clusters is shown. The application of the procedure funnel beams with RFQs is outlined. The beam dynamic parameters of the 4-vane RFQ for HERA are given

  10. Long-Term Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Air Temperature for Kentucky, United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Somsubhra Chattopadhyay


    Full Text Available Variation in quantities such as precipitation and temperature is often assessed by detecting and characterizing trends in available meteorological data. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term trends in annual precipitation and mean annual air temperature for the state of Kentucky. Non-parametric statistical tests were applied to homogenized and (as needed pre-whitened annual series of precipitation and mean air temperature during 1950–2010. Significant trends in annual precipitation were detected (both positive, averaging 4.1 mm/year for only two of the 60 precipitation-homogenous weather stations (Calloway and Carlisle counties in rural western Kentucky. Only three of the 42 temperature-homogenous stations demonstrated trends (all positive, averaging 0.01 °C/year in mean annual temperature: Calloway County, Allen County in southern-central Kentucky, and urbanized Jefferson County in northern-central Kentucky. In view of the locations of the stations demonstrating positive trends, similar work in adjacent states will be required to better understand the processes responsible for those trends and to properly place them in their larger context, if any.

  11. Studies on the diet of various lobster species have shown ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    However, the proportion of the population feeding showed marked seasonal trends at both sites, tracking the commercial ..... The general diet of crustaceans, molluscs and echino- .... habits of polychelid lobsters in the Western Mediterranean.

  12. Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements (United States)

    Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe


    The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

  13. The role of natural climatic variation in perturbing the observed global mean temperature trend

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)


    Controversy continues to prevail concerning the reality of anthropogenically-induced climatic warming. One of the principal issues is the cause of the hiatus in the current global warming trend. There appears to be a widely held view that climatic change warming should exhibit an inexorable upwards trend, a view that implies there is no longer any input by climatic variability in the existing climatic system. The relative roles of climatic change and climatic variability are examined here using the same coupled global climatic model. For the former, the model is run using a specified CO{sub 2} growth scenario, while the latter consisted of a multi-millennial simulation where any climatic variability was attributable solely to internal processes within the climatic system. It is shown that internal climatic variability can produce global mean surface temperature anomalies of {+-}0.25 K and sustained positive and negative anomalies sufficient to account for the anomalous warming of the 1940s as well as the present hiatus in the observed global warming. The characteristics of the internally-induced negative temperature anomalies are such that if this internal natural variability is the cause of the observed hiatus, then a resumption of the observed global warming trend is to be expected within the next few years. (orig.)

  14. Projection display technology and product trends (United States)

    Kahn, Frederic J.


    Major technology and market trends that could generate a 20 billion dollar electronic projector market by 2010 are reviewed in the perspective of recent product introductions. A log linear analysis shows that the light outputs of benchmark transportable data video projectors have increased at a rate of almost 90 percent per year since 1993. The list prices of these same projectors have decreased at a rate of over 40 percent per year. The tradeoffs of light output vs. resolution and weight are illustrated. Recent trends in projector efficacy vs. year are discussed. Lumen output per dollar of list price is shown to be a useful market metric. Continued technical advances and innovations including higher throughput light valve technologies with integrated drivers, brighter light source, field sequential color, integrated- and micro-optical components, and aerospace materials are likely to sustain these trends. The new technologies will enable projection displays for entertainment and computer applications with unprecedented levels of performance, compactness, and cost-effectiveness.

  15. Monitoring of non-cigarette tobacco use using Google Trends. (United States)

    Cavazos-Rehg, Patricia A; Krauss, Melissa J; Spitznagel, Edward L; Lowery, Ashley; Grucza, Richard A; Chaloupka, Frank J; Bierut, Laura Jean


    Google Trends is an innovative monitoring system with unique potential to monitor and predict important phenomena that may be occurring at a population level. We sought to validate whether Google Trends can additionally detect regional trends in youth and adult tobacco use. We compared 2011 Google Trends relative search volume data for cigars, cigarillos, little cigars and smokeless tobacco with state prevalence of youth (grades 9-12) and adult (age 18 and older) use of these products using data from the 2011 United States state-level Youth Risk Behaviors Surveillance System and the 2010-2011 United States National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH), respectively. We used the Pearson correlation coefficient to measure the associations. We found significant positive correlations between state Google Trends cigar relative search volume and prevalence of cigar use among youth (r=0.39, R(2) = 0.154, p=0.018) and adults (r=0.49, R(2) = 0.243, pGoogle Trends smokeless tobacco relative search volume and prevalence of smokeless tobacco use among youth and adults were both positive and significant (r=0.46, R(2) = 0.209, p=0.003 and r=0.48, R(2) = 0.226, pGoogle Trends has the potential to be a valuable monitoring tool for tobacco use. The near real-time monitoring features of Google Trends may complement traditional surveillance methods and lead to faster and more convenient monitoring of emerging trends in tobacco use. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to

  16. [New trends in tonometry]. (United States)

    Draeger, J A; Schwenteck, T; Ruokonen, P C


    Though the knowledge about the risk of elevated intraocular pressure for pathogenesis for development and progress of glaucoma is more than 400 years old. It took another 300 years before by means of tonometry this elevation could be quantified. After discussion of the key words it is our aim to demonstrate the latest trends in tonometry, specifically by use of modern electronics for instrument design. Goldmann was the founder of the "applanation tonometry", measuring the corelation of applanated area and applied force. Here, the next step was the development of instruments, measuring independent of position or gravity to allow application also at the lying patient. Electronic area detection was the next step to avoid examinor's error. Also important was the introduction of automatic UV-desinfection to avoid contamination of the other eye or other patients. Other tonometers control the force applied by an inductive method, which also allows application independent of position. Airpuff-tonometry uses completely different measuring principles - the resulting change of corneal curvature indicates the intraocular pressure. The impedance principle is applied even through the closed eye lid. The shock waves resulting shall be measured. Direct application of a surface sensor incorporated into a concave surface contact body shall allow direct measurement of intraocular pressure independent of corneal thickness, curvature, astigmatism. This method has been tried for more than 20 years. Also exposition of the eye to count waves of different frequency was an early attempt. Here also change of reflectivity is used to calculate intraocular pressure. Even after use of modern electronic technology the precision of many of these new devices does not lead to better results. This specifically is shown by modern calibration methods.

  17. A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurst, Brian; Ooi, Yao Hua; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

    a century. We analyze trend-following returns through various economic environments and highlight the diversifi cation benefi ts the strategy has historically provided in equity bear markets. Finally, we evaluate the recent environment for the strategy in the context of these long-term results.......We study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1903, extending the existing evidence by more than 80 years. We fi nd that trend-following has delivered strong positive returns and realized a low correlation to traditional asset classes each decade for more than...

  18. Trends in a aerospace technology advanced materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogren, J.R.


    The purpose of this presentation is to discuss recent trends in aerospace technology and to discuss as they relate to recent trends in the materials technologies. We shall do this within the framework of a large new activity that is, in fact, underway at the present, namely, MISSION TO THE PLANET EARTH. Mission requirements will be described in a hierarchical order. It will be shown that materials technology, in one form or another, is an identified critical technology for every single aspect of the mission. Other critical aspects exist, primarily in the areas of data processing and data management. International cooperation in aerospace-materials activities will be described. (author)

  19. Twelve-year analysis of microbial keratitis trends at a UK tertiary hospital. (United States)

    Tan, S Z; Walkden, A; Au, L; Fullwood, C; Hamilton, A; Qamruddin, A; Armstrong, M; Brahma, A K; Carley, F


    PurposeTo investigate the frequencies, trends, and in vitro drug susceptibilities of the causative pathogens in microbial keratitis in Manchester Royal Eye Hospital.Patients and methodsCorneal scrape results recorded by the microbiology service between 2004 and 2015 were extracted from an established database. A total of 4229 corneal scrape specimens were identified from an established database. First-line antibiotic treatment in our centre during the study period was ofloxacin and second line was cefuroxime and gentamicin.ResultsMean age was 45.9±21.0. A total of 1379 samples (32.6%) were culture positive. One hundred forty-eight (10.7%) specimens cultured multiple organisms. Of the 1539 organisms identified, 63.3% were Gram-positive bacteria, 27.3% Gram-negative bacteria, 7.1% fungi, and 2.3% Acanthamoebae. A decreasing trend in Gram-positive isolates was found together with a stable trend in Gram negatives and an increasing trend in Acanthamoeba and fungi. There appeared to be a significant increasing trend of Moraxella infection (P=0.001). In all, 83.1 and 90.8% of Gram-positive and -negative isolates tested were susceptible to ofloxacin, respectively. Cefuroxime covered 86.6% of Gram-positive and 61.4% of Gram-negative isolates, whereas gentamicin covered 88.8 and 96.5% of Gram-positive and -negative isolates, respectively.ConclusionWe found a change in the type of Gram-negative organisms isolated over time, with the Moraxella species on the rise. Reassuringly, no significant increase in resistance was observed in vitro for any of the commonly used antibiotics. Ofloxacin remains a good first-line antibiotic treatment but duo-therapy does have broader coverage and should be considered in non-responsive cases.

  20. Trends in surface-water quality at selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations, in Michigan (United States)

    Syed, Atiq U.; Fogarty, Lisa R.


    To demonstrate the value of long-term, water-quality monitoring, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), initiated a study to evaluate potential trends in water-quality constituents for selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations in Michigan. The goal of this study is to assist the MDEQ in evaluating the effectiveness of water-pollution control efforts and the identification of water-quality concerns. The study included a total of nine NASQAN stations in Michigan. Approximately 28 constituents were analyzed for trend tests. Station selection was based on data availability, land-use characteristics, and station priority for the MDEQ Water Chemistry Monitoring Project. Trend analyses were completed using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall Test in the computer program Estimate Trend (ESTREND), a software program for the detection of trends in water-quality data. The parameters chosen for the trend test had (1) at least a 5-year period of record (2) about 5 percent of the observations censored at a single reporting limit, and (3) 40 percent of the values within the beginning one-fifth and ending one-fifth of the selected period. In this study, a negative trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent, which generally means an improvement in water quality; whereas a positive trend means an increase in concentration and possible degradation of water quality. The results of the study show an overall improvement in water quality at the Clinton River at Mount Clemens, Manistee River at Manistee, and Pigeon River near Caseville. The detected trend for these stations show decreases in concentrations of various constituents such as nitrogen compounds, conductance, sulfate, fecal coliform bacteria, and fecal streptococci bacteria. The negative trend may indicate an overall improvement in agricultural practices, municipal and industrial wastewater

  1. Current economic trends in equine practice. (United States)

    Clark, Andrew R


    Current economic trends in equine practice are trends of weakness. Most practices, after a decade of double-digit growth, have migrated to survival mode within a few months. Understanding that all regions and disciplines are affected differently, using the Porter five forces model, we can identify changes that must be made in our business models first to survive and then to position ourselves to prosper when the recession ends. If we are to avoid long-term damage to our practices, we must use cost control and work efficiency in addition to price concessions.

  2. New trends in safety approach for commercial LMFBRS after SPX1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergeonneau, P.; Moreau, J.; Cowking, C.B.; Friedel, G.; Pezzxilli, M.


    The experience gained from SPX1 project safety studies shows the trends for the definition of the new safety approach for the next generation of commercial LMFBR's. New trends in safety criteria, as seen in Europe, are presented in the first part of this paper. It is shown that they greatly emphasize the prevention actions even for minor events which can, in certain cases, lead to severe accidents. In the second part, an attempt is made to compare these new trends in Europe with the ones developed in the USA that put forward the inherent safety approach

  3. Spatio-temporal trends in monthly pan evaporation in Aguascalientes, Mexico (United States)

    Ruiz-Alvarez, Osias; Singh, Vijay P.; Medina, Juan Enciso; Munster, Clyde; Kaiser, Ronald; Ontiveros-Capurata, Ronald Ernesto; Diaz-Garcia, Luis Antonio; dos Santos, Carlos Antonio Costa


    Emission of greenhouse gases is being alleged to be causing climate change in different regions of the world. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatio-temporal trends of monthly evaporation at 52 weather stations in the state of Aguascalientes (Mexico) which have hydrometeorological records of long periods. The autocorrelation was eliminated with an auto-regressive model, and the trend was determined using the Spearman (S) and Kendall (K) tests. The statistical significance of the trend was determined with the Spearman correlation coefficient (r s) and the Z statistic (the test statistic of the normal distribution) both indicated that that there were statistically significant trends in 107 time series, of these 88 series had negative trends and 19 series had positive trends. Negative trends were present in all months of the year, while positive trends occurred from February to May and from October to December only. The reduction of evaporation from - 4.10 to - 20.50 mm/month/year from June to September showed a hopeful future scenario for rainfed agriculture. Irrigated agriculture during dry months could have a reduction of irrigation requirements as a consequence of the reduction in reference and crop evapotranspiration. The evaporation increase during dry months could increase irrigation requirements and pumping, mainly in March, April, and November when there are trends with increases of about 26.90, 24.60, and 23.90 mm/month/year, respectively. The spatial variability of evaporation trend means that other effects of climate change could vary in different parts of the state. Results of this study will be useful for farmers and institutions in charge of the administration of water resources for developing adaptation and mitigation strategies to climate change.

  4. Storminess trends in the Gulf and Mexican Caribbean (United States)

    Mendoza, E. T.; Ojeda, E.; Appendini, C. M.


    Numerous studies have focused on whether the attributes of tropical cyclones have varied, or how they are expected to vary in a warming climate and yet, a defined conclusion has not been reached. However, an increase in storm intensity, with the inherent increase of wave height and storm surge, will be responsible of heavy economic loss on coastal areas. This contribution analyzes possible variations in the long term storminess pattern observed in 10 nearshore locations along the southern coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Mexican Caribbean using modeled wave data from the last 30 years (Appendini et al., 2013). Storminess is studied in terms of wave energy content focusing on extreme event conditions. Wave storm events are obtained using the Peak Over Threshold method. The wave conditions during the events are separated into those caused by tropical cyclones (TC) and extratropical storm (ETS) events because they are expected to behave differently in response to changing climate conditions. In order to characterize the waves generated by these different phenomena the data set is inspected separating individual storm events into TC and ETS using the IBtracks information. The trend and Mann-Kendall test are performed for each node to account for possible trends in the frequency, mean and maximum significant wave heights, and the mean energy content (taken as E=integral(Hs*dt) of TC and ETS. For the TC and ETS events, the results of the MK test show an absence of significant temporal trends for the majority of the nodes even at the 90% confidence interval. The significant trends in the number of ETS events show differential results (negative trend in the northernmost node and positive trends in the two Caribbean nodes and the easternmost GoM node). Regarding the TC events, the two nodes located in the Caribbean Sea present significant temporal (positive) trends in the energy content of the events. However, this trend is related to an increase in the magnitude of

  5. Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

    KAUST Repository

    Klingmüller, Klaus


    We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. We relate the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface winds to identify regions where these attributes are directly related to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Regarding precipitation and soil moisture, a relatively small area in and surrounding Iraq turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD over these countries. Regarding surface wind speed, the African Red Sea coastal area is relevant for the Saudi Arabian AOD. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trends and interannual variability can be attributed to soil moisture, precipitation and surface winds, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle. Our results confirm the dust driven AOD trends and variability, supported by a decreasing MODIS-derived Ångström exponent and a decreasing AERONET-derived fine mode fraction that accompany the AOD increase over Saudi Arabia. The positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. As a lower soil moisture translates into enhanced dust emissions, it is not needed to assume growing anthropogenic aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions to explain the observations. Instead, our results suggest that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change.

  6. Positive Selection and Centrality in the Yeast and Fly Protein-Protein Interaction Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandip Chakraborty


    Full Text Available Proteins within a molecular network are expected to be subject to different selective pressures depending on their relative hierarchical positions. However, it is not obvious what genes within a network should be more likely to evolve under positive selection. On one hand, only mutations at genes with a relatively high degree of control over adaptive phenotypes (such as those encoding highly connected proteins are expected to be “seen” by natural selection. On the other hand, a high degree of pleiotropy at these genes is expected to hinder adaptation. Previous analyses of the human protein-protein interaction network have shown that genes under long-term, recurrent positive selection (as inferred from interspecific comparisons tend to act at the periphery of the network. It is unknown, however, whether these trends apply to other organisms. Here, we show that long-term positive selection has preferentially targeted the periphery of the yeast interactome. Conversely, in flies, genes under positive selection encode significantly more connected and central proteins. These observations are not due to covariation of genes’ adaptability and centrality with confounding factors. Therefore, the distribution of proteins encoded by genes under recurrent positive selection across protein-protein interaction networks varies from one species to another.

  7. New Trends in Facility Asset Management. (United States)

    Adams, Matt


    Explains new, positive trends in facility asset management that encompasses greater acceptance and involvement of facility managers in the financial planning process, greater awareness of the need for maintenance, and facility administrators taking a greater role with business officers. The new climate for alternative renewal financing proposals…

  8. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report: Present-day ozone distribution and trends relevant to human health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoë L. Fleming


    Full Text Available This study quantifies the present-day global and regional distributions (2010–2014 and trends (2000–2014 for five ozone metrics relevant for short-term and long-term human exposure. These metrics, calculated by the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report, are: 4th highest daily maximum 8-hour ozone (4MDA8; number of days with MDA8 > 70 ppb (NDGT70, SOMO35 (annual Sum of Ozone Means Over 35 ppb and two seasonally averaged metrics (3MMDA1; AVGMDA8. These metrics were explored at ozone monitoring sites worldwide, which were classified as urban or non-urban based on population and nighttime lights data. Present-day distributions of 4MDA8 and NDGT70, determined predominantly by peak values, are similar with highest levels in western North America, southern Europe and East Asia. For the other three metrics, distributions are similar with North–South gradients more prominent across Europe and Japan. Between 2000 and 2014, significant negative trends in 4MDA8 and NDGT70 occur at most US and some European sites. In contrast, significant positive trends are found at many sites in South Korea and Hong Kong, with mixed trends across Japan. The other three metrics have similar, negative trends for many non-urban North American and some European and Japanese sites, and positive trends across much of East Asia. Globally, metrics at many sites exhibit non-significant trends. At 59% of all sites there is a common direction and significance in the trend across all five metrics, whilst 4MDA8 and NDGT70 have a common trend at ~80% of all sites. Sensitivity analysis shows AVGMDA8 trends differ with averaging period (warm season or annual. Trends are unchanged at many sites when a 1995–2014 period is used; although fewer sites exhibit non-significant trends. Over the longer period 1970–2014, most Japanese sites exhibit positive 4MDA8/SOMO35 trends. Insufficient data exist to characterize ozone trends for the rest of Asia and other world regions.

  9. Study of trends in the trucking market in modern conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available The article analyzes the features of the transport services market in accordance with its segmentation from the position of statistics on the field of automotive freight. The tendencies of development dynamics and road trucking transport market structure, and particularly the impact of transportation logistics market, including foreign trade cargo traffic of road transport, on the basic trends and the impact of logistics infrastructure development for aggregate indicators of development of transport communications, the size and dynamics of development, market compatibility on investment attractiveness. Balance of consumer, wholesale and logistics market in Ukraine, having similar development trends are established. Market logistics of trucking transport services have a steady trend of development in an objective decline in growth. The necessity of modernization policies in the transport sector at the state level as a software-oriented transport sector investment resources of the economy, taking into account that the share of road transport in the transport system of the country demonstrates the dynamic development with a positive trend in demand for transportation of goods.

  10. Exploring the Link Between Streamflow Trends and Climate Change in Indiana, USA (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Kam, J.; Thurner, K.; Merwade, V.


    Streamflow trends in Indiana are evaluated for 85 USGS streamflow gaging stations that have continuous unregulated streamflow records varying from 10 to 80 years. The trends are analyzed by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with prior trend-free pre-whitening to remove serial correlation in the data. Bootstrap method is used to establish field significance of the results. Trends are computed for 12 streamflow statistics to include low-, medium- (median and mean flow), and high-flow conditions on annual and seasonal time step. The analysis is done for six study periods, ranging from 10 years to more than 65 years, all ending in 2003. The trends in annual average streamflow, for 50 years study period, are compared with annual average precipitation trends from 14 National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stations in Indiana, that have 50 years of continuous daily record. The results show field significant positive trends in annual low and medium streamflow statistics at majority of gaging stations for study periods that include 40 or more years of records. In seasonal analysis, all flow statistics in summer and fall (low flow seasons), and only low flow statistics in winter and spring (high flow seasons) are showing positive trends. No field significant trends in annual and seasonal flow statistics are observed for study periods that include 25 or fewer years of records, except for northern Indiana where localized negative trends are observed in 10 and 15 years study periods. Further, stream flow trends are found to be highly correlated with precipitation trends on annual time step. No apparent climate change signal is observed in Indiana stream flow records.

  11. Power reactor design trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogan, W.J.


    Cascade and Pulse Star represent new trends in ICF power reactor design that have emerged in the last few years. The most recent embodiments of these two concepts, and that of the HYLIFE design with which they will compare them, are shown. All three reactors depend upon protecting structural elements from neutrons, x rays and debris by injecting massive amounts of shielding material inside the reaction chamber. However, Cascade and Pulse Star introduce new ideas to improve the economics, safety, and environmental impact of ICF reactors. They also pose different development issues and thus represent technological alternatives to HYLIFE

  12. ITDB information ; global risks, trends and patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    The trend in the quantities of nuclear materials seized in trafficking have decreased per incidence, however some seizures involved only samples. Most incidents have involved nuclear material from pre-conversion, conversion, fuel fabrication and storage facilities. Few of the incidents have shown evidence of materials from enrichment and reprocessing facilities. the involvement of insiders and the stealing techniques used are yet to be thoroughly analysed.

  13. Effects of Exponential Trends on Correlations of Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai-Jing Lin


    Full Text Available Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA is a scaling analysis method used to estimate long-range power-law correlation exponents in time series. In this paper, DFA is employed to discuss the long-range correlations of stock market. The effects of exponential trends on correlations of Hang Seng Index (HSI are investigated with emphasis. We find that the long-range correlations and the positions of the crossovers of lower order DFA appear to have no immunity to the additive exponential trends. Further, our analysis suggests that an increase in the DFA order increases the efficiency of eliminating on exponential trends. In addition, the empirical study shows that the correlations and crossovers are associated with DFA order and magnitude of exponential trends.

  14. Administrative trends in U.S. dental schools. (United States)

    Fu, Martin M; Rodriguez, Angel; Chen, Rebecca Y; Fu, Earl; Liao, Shu-Yi; Karimbux, Nadeem Y


    The aims of this study were to analyze the administrative trends in U.S. dental schools at the beginning and end of a thirteen-year period and to identify the predictive factors for those changes. Administrative trends were measured by the difference in the number of major administrative positions for 1997 and 2010 reported in American Dental Education Association (ADEA) and American Dental Association (ADA) publications. Secondary measures (program length, student enrollment, and tuition) were also gathered. The mean numbers of administrative positions per school significantly increased over the study period, while the mean number of clinical science departments per school significantly decreased. The change in the number of directors was positively correlated with the change in student enrollment, but inversely correlated with the change in number of vice/associate/assistant deans. The change in the number of clinical science departments was positively correlated with changes in student enrollment and out-of-state tuition, but inversely correlated with the change in in-state tuition. The number of all departments per U.S. dental school significantly decreased in this period. The schools that had consolidation of clinical science departments were less likely to have increases in student enrollment and out-of-state tuition, but more likely to have increases in in-state tuition.

  15. Long-term trends in the ionospheric E and F1 regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bremer


    Full Text Available Ground based ionosonde measurements are the most essential source of information about long-term variations in the ionospheric E and F1 regions. Data of such observations have been derived at many different ionospheric stations all over the world some for more than 50 years. The standard parameters foE, h'E, and foF1 are used for trend analyses in this paper. Two main problems have to be considered in these analyses. Firstly, the data series have to be homogeneous, i.e. the observations should not be disturbed by artificial steps due to technical reasons or changes in the evaluation algorithm. Secondly, the strong solar and geomagnetic influences upon the ionospheric data have carefully to be removed by an appropriate regression analysis. Otherwise the small trends in the different ionospheric parameters cannot be detected.

    The trends derived at individual stations differ markedly, however their dependence on geographic or geomagnetic latitude is only small. Nevertheless, the mean global trends estimated from the trends at the different stations show some general behaviour (positive trends in foE and foF1, negative trend in h'E which can at least qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (increase of CO2 content and other greenhouse gases and decreasing ozone values. The positive foE trend is also in qualitative agreement with rocket mass spectrometer observations of ion densities in the E region. First indications could be found that the changing ozone trend at mid-latitudes (before about 1979, between 1979 until 1995, and after about 1995 modifies the estimated mean foE trend.

  16. Van ‘triomfalisme’ naar ‘postkolonialisme’: Trends in de geschiedschrijving van de tropische geneeskunde

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Myriam Mertens


    Full Text Available From ‘Triumphalism’ to ‘Postcolonialism’: Trends in the Historiography of Tropical Medicine This article highlights some of the most remarkable trends in the historiography of tropical medicine. Focusing on the literature that deals with the 19th and 20th centuries, it describes how by the 1980’s triumphalist, apologetic histories were replaced by critical studies that revealed the less positive sides of tropical medicine. It also talks about the increasing influence in medical historiography of the postcolonial body of thought and its dynamic perspective on colonial categories and relations. This postcolonialism turns out to be a fruitful approach, as is shown especially by recent studies that focus on the production of tropical medical knowledge. In fact, the historiography of tropical medicine increasingly contributes to the growing body of literature on science and imperialism that looks for postcolonial alternatives to the diffusionist paradigm. This concern to reject diffusionism (which views imperialism as the basis for the spread of European science to the non-western world has been noticeable particularly in the Anglo-Saxon academic world. This article calls for the adoption of similar approaches in other historiographic traditions.

  17. Ecohydrological Index, Native Fish, and Climate Trends and Relationships in the Kansas River Basin. (United States)

    Sinnathamby, Sumathy; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle R; Muche, Muluken E; Hutchinson, Stacy L; Anandhi, Aavudai


    This study quantified climatological and hydrological trends and relationships to presence and distribution of two native aquatic species in the Kansas River Basin over the past half-century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) at 34 streamgages over a 50-year period (1962-2012). Results showed a significant negative trend in annual streamflow for 10 of 12 western streamgages (up to -7.65 mm/50 yr) and smaller negative trends for most other streamgages. Significant negative trends in western Basin streamflow were more widespread in summer (12 stations) than winter or spring (6 stations). The negative-trend magnitude and significance decreased from west to east for maximum-flow IHAs. Minimum- flow IHAs, however, significantly decreased at High Plains streamgages but significantly increased at Central Great Plains streamgages. Number of zero-flow days showed positive trends in the High Plains. Most streamgages showed negative trends in low- and high-flow pulse frequency and high-flow pulse duration, and positive trends in low-flow pulse duration. These results were consistent with increasing occurrence of drought. Shift in occurrence from present (1860-1950) to absent (2000-2012) was significantly related (pBasin sites and had different responses to hydrological index trends at eastern Basin sites. These results demonstrate ecohydrological index changes impact distributions of native fish and suggest target factors for assessment or restoration activities.

  18. NatHER: protocol for systematic evaluation of trends in survival among patients with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer. (United States)

    Korner, Eli J; Morris, Anne; Allen, Isabel Elaine; Hurvitz, Sara; Beattie, Mary S; Kalesan, Bindu


    Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive metastatic breast cancer (MBC) is an aggressive form of breast cancer and is historically associated with poor outcomes compared with HER2-negative MBC. Since 1998, four drugs have been globally approved for the targeted treatment of HER2-positive MBC. Additional advances in patient care-such as improved breast cancer screening, HER2 testing, and supportive care-have also occurred. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis is to determine whether there has been a cumulative change in survival over time in patients with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer based on results from interventional clinical trials (ICTs) and observational studies and to compare outcomes across these types of studies. A systematic search of Medline, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials will be performed. Two investigators will independently assess each abstract for inclusion. English language reports of ICTs and observational studies that include patients with HER2-positive advanced breast cancer from 1987 onwards will be considered. The primary outcome of interest is overall survival; secondary outcomes include progression-free survival and safety. Data on clinical outcomes, as well as on study design, study population, treatment/intervention, methodological quality, and outcomes, will be extracted using a structured codebook developed by the authors for this study. Standard and cumulative random effects meta-analysis will be performed to derive pooled risk estimates, both overall and by study design, controlling for covariates such as aggregate demographic and clinical characteristics of patients, treatment/intervention, and study characteristics. Heterogeneity of studies will be evaluated using the I(2) statistic. Differences in risk estimates by quality characteristics will be performed using meta-regression. This study will evaluate current and evolving trends in survival associated with

  19. Trends in seasonal warm anomalies across the contiguous United States: Contributions from natural climate variability (United States)

    Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Warren E. Heilman; Xindi. Bian


    Many studies have shown the importance of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in contributing to observed upward trends in the occurrences of temperature extremes over the U.S. However, few studies have investigated the contributions of internal variability in the climate system to these observed trends. Here we use daily maximum temperature time series from the...

  20. Gender Gap Trends on Mathematics Exams Position Girls and Young Women for STEM Careers (United States)

    Beekman, John A.; Ober, David


    Nine years of results on 4.2 million of Indiana's Indiana Statewide Testing for Educational Progress (ISTEP) mathematics (math) exams (grades 3-10) taken after the implementation of No Child Left Behind have been used to determine gender gaps and their associated trends. Sociocultural factors were investigated by comparing math gender gaps and gap…

  1. Regional precipitation trend analysis at the Langat River Basin, Selangor, Malaysia (United States)

    Palizdan, Narges; Falamarzi, Yashar; Huang, Yuk Feng; Lee, Teang Shui; Ghazali, Abdul Halim


    Various hydrological and meteorological variables such as rainfall and temperature have been affected by global climate change. Any change in the pattern of precipitation can have a significant impact on the availability of water resources, agriculture, and the ecosystem. Therefore, knowledge on rainfall trend is an important aspect of water resources management. In this study, the regional annual and seasonal precipitation trends at the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, for the period of 1982-2011 were examined at the 95 % level of significance using the regional average Mann-Kendall (RAMK) test and the regional average Mann-Kendall coupled with bootstrap (RAMK-bootstrap) method. In order to identify the homogeneous regions respectively for the annual and seasonal scales, firstly, at-site mean total annual and separately at-site mean total seasonal precipitation were spatialized into 5 km × 5 km grids using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) algorithm. Next, the optimum number of homogeneous regions (clusters) is computed using the silhouette coefficient approach. Next, the homogeneous regions were formed using the K-mean clustering method. From the annual scale perspective, all three regions showed positive trends. However, the application of two methods at this scale showed a significant trend only in the region AC1. The region AC2 experienced a significant positive trend using only the RAMK test. On a seasonal scale, all regions showed insignificant trends, except the regions I1C1 and I1C2 in the Inter-Monsoon 1 (INT1) season which experienced significant upward trends. In addition, it was proven that the significance of trends has been affected by the existence of serial and spatial correlations.

  2. Trends in flash flood events versus convective precipitation in the Mediterranean region: The case of Catalonia (United States)

    Llasat, Maria Carmen; Marcos, Raul; Turco, Marco; Gilabert, Joan; Llasat-Botija, Montserrat


    The aim of this paper is to analyse the potential relationship between flash flood events and convective precipitation in Catalonia, as well as any related trends. The paper starts with an overview of flash floods and their trends in the Mediterranean region, along with their associated factors, followed by the definition of, identification of, and trends in convective precipitation. After this introduction the paper focuses on the north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, for which there is a long-term precipitation series (since 1928) of 1-min precipitation from the Fabra Observatory, as well as a shorter (1996-2011) but more extensive precipitation series (43 rain gauges) of 5-min precipitation. Both series have been used to characterise the degree of convective contribution to rainfall, introducing the β parameter as the ratio between convective precipitation versus total precipitation in any period. Information about flood events was obtained from the INUNGAMA database (a flood database created by the GAMA team), with the aim of finding any potential links to convective precipitation. These flood data were gathered using information on damage where flood is treated as a multifactorial risk, and where any trend or anomaly might have been caused by one or more factors affecting hazard, vulnerability or exposure. Trend analysis has shown an increase in flash flood events. The fact that no trends were detected in terms of extreme values of precipitation on a daily scale, nor on the associated ETCCDI (Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices) extreme index, could point to an increase in vulnerability, an increase in exposure, or changes in land use. However, the summer increase in convective precipitation was concentrated in less torrential events, which could partially explain this positive trend in flash flood events. The β parameter has been also used to characterise the type of flood event according to the features of the precipitation. The highest values

  3. Corrective action program at the Krsko NPP. Trending and analysis of minor events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bach, B.; Kavsek, D.


    Industry and On-site Operating Experience has shown that the significant events, minor events and near misses all share something in common: latent weaknesses that result in failed barriers and the same or similar (root) causes for that failure. All these types of events differ only in their resulting consequences: minor events and near misses have no immediate or significant impact to plant safety or reliability. However, the significant events are usually preceded by a number of those kinds of events and could be prevented from occurring if the root cause(s) of these precursor events could be identified and eliminated. It would be therefore poor management to leave minor events and near misses unreported and unanalysed. Reporting and analysing of minor events allows detection of latent weaknesses that may indicate the need for improvement. The benefit of low level event analysis is that deficiencies can be found in barriers that normally go unchallenged and may not be known that they are ineffective in stopping a significant event. In addition, large numbers of minor events and near misses may increase the probability of occurrence of a significant event, which in itself is a sufficient reason for addressing these types of events. However, as it is not often practical neither feasible to perform a detailed root cause determination for every minor events, trending and trend analysis are used to identify and correct the causes prior to their resulting in a significant event. Trending is monitoring a change in frequency of similar minor events occurrence. Adverse trend is an increase in the frequency of minor events which are sorted by commonality such as common equipment failure, human factors, common or similar causal factors, activity etc. or worsening performance of processes that has been trending. The primary goal of any trending programme should be to identify an adverse trend early enough that the operating organization can initiate an investigation to help

  4. Consistency of Trend Break Point Estimator with Underspecified Break Number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Yang


    Full Text Available This paper discusses the consistency of trend break point estimators when the number of breaks is underspecified. The consistency of break point estimators in a simple location model with level shifts has been well documented by researchers under various settings, including extensions such as allowing a time trend in the model. Despite the consistency of break point estimators of level shifts, there are few papers on the consistency of trend shift break point estimators in the presence of an underspecified break number. The simulation study and asymptotic analysis in this paper show that the trend shift break point estimator does not converge to the true break points when the break number is underspecified. In the case of two trend shifts, the inconsistency problem worsens if the magnitudes of the breaks are similar and the breaks are either both positive or both negative. The limiting distribution for the trend break point estimator is developed and closely approximates the finite sample performance.

  5. Trends, options for market positioning and success factors in E-Mobility; Tendenzen, Positionierungsoptionen und Erfolgsfaktoren bei E-Mobilitaet. Nachhaltige Chancen fuer Elektrizitaetsversorger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ermann, A. [The Advisory House AG, Zuerich (Switzerland); Pils, F.; Karring, K. [The Mobility House GmbH, Salzburg (Austria)


    This article discusses the trends in electro-mobility and the options available to electricity utilities when positioning themselves in this market. The factors influencing their success in doing this are also discussed. The general framework in which these activities are taking place are discussed as are the obstacles that hinder development in this area. The influence of society and politics, environmental, economical and ecological factors are looked at. Further, technological factors such as innovation and further development in the vehicle, battery and renewable energy areas are looked at. The necessary infrastructure for the operation of electrical vehicles is discussed. Case studies on electro-mobility are briefly presented and discussed. The necessary clear focus and the efficient use of the means available are stressed.

  6. Tracking Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Shifts in Data with TREND. (United States)

    Xu, Jia; Van Doren, Steven R


    Principal component analysis (PCA) discovers patterns in multivariate data that include spectra, microscopy, and other biophysical measurements. Direct application of PCA to crowded spectra, images, and movies (without selecting peaks or features) was shown recently to identify their equilibrium or temporal changes. To enable the community to utilize these capabilities with a wide range of measurements, we have developed multiplatform software named TREND to Track Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium population shifts among two-dimensional Data frames. TREND can also carry this out by independent component analysis. We highlight a few examples of finding concurrent processes. TREND extracts dual phases of binding to two sites directly from the NMR spectra of the titrations. In a cardiac movie from magnetic resonance imaging, TREND resolves principal components (PCs) representing breathing and the cardiac cycle. TREND can also reconstruct the series of measurements from selected PCs, as illustrated for a biphasic, NMR-detected titration and the cardiac MRI movie. Fidelity of reconstruction of series of NMR spectra or images requires more PCs than needed to plot the largest population shifts. TREND reads spectra from many spectroscopies in the most common formats (JCAMP-DX and NMR) and multiple movie formats. The TREND package thus provides convenient tools to resolve the processes recorded by diverse biophysical methods. Copyright © 2017 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Long term climatology and trends of heat and cold waves over ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    at the rate 0.15 and 0.17 per year, respectively, with significance at 95% confidence level. Zone-IIIB on ... ever, few stations have shown significant decreasing trends in heat ..... per hectare) have been tested and were found best for resilience ...

  8. Some trends in the develpment of electron accelerators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petrov, I.I.


    Trends of further development of electron linear accelerators, betatrons and microtrons based upon the first stage of theoretic-information forecasting technique as well as upon the first stage of regressive analysis have been considered. An analysis of dynamics of scientific and technical publications and patenting dynamics has shown that electron linear accelerators are the most promising whereas further elaboration of betatrons is considered fruitless

  9. Variability and trends in dry day frequency and dry event length in the southwestern United States (United States)

    McCabe, Gregory J.; Legates, David R.; Lins, Harry F.


    Daily precipitation from 22 National Weather Service first-order weather stations in the southwestern United States for water years 1951 through 2006 are used to examine variability and trends in the frequency of dry days and dry event length. Dry events with minimum thresholds of 10 and 20 consecutive days of precipitation with less than 2.54 mm are analyzed. For water years and cool seasons (October through March), most sites indicate negative trends in dry event length (i.e., dry event durations are becoming shorter). For the warm season (April through September), most sites also indicate negative trends; however, more sites indicate positive trends in dry event length for the warm season than for water years or cool seasons. The larger number of sites indicating positive trends in dry event length during the warm season is due to a series of dry warm seasons near the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century. Overall, a large portion of the variability in dry event length is attributable to variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially for water years and cool seasons. Our results are consistent with analyses of trends in discharge for sites in the southwestern United States, an increased frequency in El Niño events, and positive trends in precipitation in the southwestern United States.

  10. Comparison between linear and nonlinear trends in NOAA-15 AMSU-A brightness temperatures during 1998-2010

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qin, Z. [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application, Nanjing (China); Zou, X. [Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Center of Data Assimilation for Research and Application, Nanjing (China); Florida State University, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Tallahassee, FL (United States); Weng, F. [NOAA/NESDIS, Center for Satellite Applications and Research, Camp Springs, MD (United States)


    Brightness temperature observations from Microwave Sounding Unit and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on board National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites have been widely utilized for estimating the global climate trend in the troposphere and stratosphere. A common approach for deriving the trend is linear regression, which implicitly assumes the trend being a straight line over the whole length of a time series and is often highly sensitive to the data record length. This study explores a new adaptive and temporally local data analysis method - Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) - for estimating the global trends. In EEMD, a non-stationary time series is decomposed adaptively and locally into a sequence of amplitude-frequency modulated oscillatory components and a time-varying trend. The AMSU-A data from the NOAA-15 satellite over the time period from October 26, 1998 to August 7, 2010 are employed for this study. Using data over Amazon rainforest areas, it is shown that channel 3 is least sensitive to the orbital drift among four AMSU-A surface sensitive channels. The decadal trends of AMSU-A channel 3 and other eight channels in the troposphere and stratosphere are deduced and compared using both methods. It is shown that the decadal climate trends of most AMSU-A channels are nonlinear except for channels 3-4 in Northern Hemisphere only and channels 12-13. Although the decadal trend variation of the global average brightness temperature is no more than 0.2 K, the regional decadal trend variation could be more (less) than 3 K (-3 K) in high latitudes and over high terrains. (orig.)

  11. Radiographic positioning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisenberg, R.L.; Dennis, C.A.; May, C.


    This book concentrates on the routine radiographic examinations commonly performed. It details the wide variety of examinations possible and their place in initial learning and in the radiology department as references for those occasions when an unusual examination is requested. This book provides information ranging from basic terminology to skeletal positioning to special procedures. Positions are discussed and supplemented with a picture of a patient, the resulting radiograph, and a labeled diagram. Immobilization and proper shielding of the patient are also shown

  12. Green investment: Trends and determinants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyraud, Luc; Clements, Benedict; Wane, Abdoul


    This paper fills a gap in the macroeconomic literature on renewable sources of energy. It offers a definition of green investment and analyzes the trends and determinants of this investment over the last decade for 35 advanced and emerging countries. We use a new multi-country historical dataset and find that green investment has become a key driver of the energy sector and that its rapid growth is now mostly driven by China. Our econometric results suggest that green investment is boosted by economic growth, a sound financial system conducive to low interest rates, and high fuel prices. We also find that some policy interventions, such as the introduction of carbon pricing schemes or “feed-in-tariffs,” which require use of “green” energy, have a positive and significant impact on green investment. Other interventions, such as biofuel support, do not appear to be associated with higher green investment. - Highlights: • We offer a definition of green investment and review its trend since 2000. • We analyze its determinants from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. • Green investment is boosted by economic growth, interest rates, and fuel prices. • Feed-in-tariffs and carbon pricing schemes impact positively green investment

  13. Trends in Mobile Application Development (United States)

    Holzer, Adrian; Ondrus, Jan

    Major software companies, such as Apple and Google, are disturbing the relatively safe and established actors of the mobile application business. These newcomers have caused significant structural changes by imposing and enforcing their own rules for the future of mobile application development. The implications of these changes do not only concern the mobile network operators and mobile phone manufacturers. This changed environment also brings additional opportunities and constraints for current mobile application developers. Therefore, developers need to assess what their options are and how they can take advantages of these current trends. In this paper, we take a developer’s perspective in order to explore how the structural changes will influence the mobile application development markets. Moreover, we discuss what aspects developers need to take into account in order to position themselves within the current trends.

  14. Emission allowances -- Long-term price trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lennox, F.H.


    Estimated trends in emission allowance (EA) values have been of interest to all those affected by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 since it became law in 1990. The authors published estimates of the values of EAs in December 1991, and revised their estimate in November 1992. The summary trends of the 1992 estimate is shown here. General estimates such as these are no longer useful. Everyone directly involved in complying with the Act or in buying and selling allowances has developed their own outlook on EA values. Many recent trades have been publicized. The prices from the first auction are also well known. Therefore this article is concerned only with what might happening the long-run. Once Phase 2 compliance is essentially complete and emissions roughly match Emission Allowance allocations of some 9.8 million tons annually, what pressures will there be on prices? What will be the direction of values after Phase 2 is in balance?

  15. Evaluation of tropospheric and stratospheric ozone trends over Western Europe from ground-based FTIR network observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Vigouroux


    Full Text Available Within the European project UFTIR (Time series of Upper Free Troposphere observations from an European ground-based FTIR network, six ground-based stations in Western Europe, from 79° N to 28° N, all equipped with Fourier Transform infrared (FTIR instruments and part of the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC, have joined their efforts to evaluate the trends of several direct and indirect greenhouse gases over the period 1995–2004. The retrievals of CO, CH4, C2H6, N2O, CHClF2, and O3 have been optimized. Using the optimal estimation method, some vertical information can be obtained in addition to total column amounts. A bootstrap resampling method has been implemented to determine annual partial and total column trends for the target gases. The present work focuses on the ozone results. The retrieved time series of partial and total ozone columns are validated with ground-based correlative data (Brewer, Dobson, UV-Vis, ozonesondes, and Lidar. The observed total column ozone trends are in agreement with previous studies: 1 no total column ozone trend is seen at the lowest latitude station Izaña (28° N; 2 slightly positive total column trends are seen at the two mid-latitude stations Zugspitze and Jungfraujoch (47° N, only one of them being significant; 3 the highest latitude stations Harestua (60° N, Kiruna (68° N and Ny-Ålesund (79° N show significant positive total column trends. Following the vertical information contained in the ozone FTIR retrievals, we provide partial columns trends for the layers: ground-10 km, 10–18 km, 18–27 km, and 27–42 km, which helps to distinguish the contributions from dynamical and chemical changes on the total column ozone trends. We obtain no statistically significant trends in the ground-10 km layer for five out of the six ground-based stations. We find significant positive trends for the lowermost

  16. Comparison of trends and abrupt changes of the South Asia high from 1979 to 2014 in reanalysis and radiosonde datasets (United States)

    Shi, Chunhua; Huang, Ying; Guo, Dong; Zhou, Shunwu; Hu, Kaixi; Liu, Yu


    The South Asian High (SAH) has an important influence on atmospheric circulation and the Asian climate in summer. However, current comparative analyses of the SAH are mostly between reanalysis datasets and there is a lack of sounding data. We therefore compared the climatology, trends and abrupt changes in the SAH in the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) dataset, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR) dataset, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Interim (ERA-interim) dataset and radiosonde data from China using linear analysis and a sliding t-test. The trends in geopotential height in the control area of the SAH were positive in the JRA-55, NCEP-CFSR and ERA-interim datasets, but negative in the radiosonde data in the time period 1979-2014. The negative trends for the SAH were significant at the 90% confidence level in the radiosonde data from May to September. The positive trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset were significant at the 90% confidence level in May, July, August and September, but the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim were only significant at the 90% confidence level in September. The reasons for the differences in the trends of the SAH between the radiosonde data and the three reanalysis datasets in the time period 1979-2014 were updates to the sounding systems, changes in instrumentation and improvements in the radiation correction method for calculations around the year 2000. We therefore analyzed the trends in the two time periods of 1979-2000 and 2001-2014 separately. From 1979 to 2000, the negative SAH trends in the radiosonde data mainly agreed with the negative trends in the NCEP-CFSR dataset, but were in contrast with the positive trends in the JRA-55 and ERA-Interim datasets. In 2001-2014, however, the trends in the SAH were positive in all four datasets and most of the trends in the radiosonde and NCEP-CFSR datasets were significant. It is

  17. Multi-target drugs: the trend of drug research and development. (United States)

    Lu, Jin-Jian; Pan, Wei; Hu, Yuan-Jia; Wang, Yi-Tao


    Summarizing the status of drugs in the market and examining the trend of drug research and development is important in drug discovery. In this study, we compared the drug targets and the market sales of the new molecular entities approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration from January 2000 to December 2009. Two networks, namely, the target-target and drug-drug networks, have been set up using the network analysis tools. The multi-target drugs have much more potential, as shown by the network visualization and the market trends. We discussed the possible reasons and proposed the rational strategies for drug research and development in the future.

  18. Value co-creation in healthcare through positive deviance. (United States)

    Zanetti, Cole Anthony; Taylor, Natalie


    To explore how converging fields of co-creation and positive deviance may increase value in healthcare. Informed by research in positive deviance, patient engagement, value co-creation, and quality improvement, we propose a positive deviance approach to co-creation of health. Co-creation has shown to improve health outcomes with regard to multiple health conditions. Positive deviance has also shown to improve outcomes in multiple healthcare and patient community environments. A positive deviance co-creation framework may aid in achieving improved outcomes for patients, care teams and their respective healthcare organizations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes (United States)

    Laštovička, Jan


    Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

  20. Posicionamiento y proyección actual del motor de paso en aplicaciones industriales. // Position and proyection in actual industrial applications of stepping motors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Codina García


    Full Text Available El presente trabajo aborda el empleo del motor de paso en las aplicaciones industriales actuales, los recientesavances y tendencias en la construcción de los mismos así como sus principales características y variantes másconocidas.Palabras claves: Motores de paso, control de movimiento.______________________________________________________________________Abstract.This paper focuses on the position of stepping motors in current industrial applications, recent advances andgeneral trends in design and manufacturing such motors. Their most outstanding features and different typesare also shown.Key words: Stepping motors, motion control.

  1. Intralabyrinthine schwannoma shown by magnetic resonance imaging

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saeed, S.R.; Birzgalis, A.R.; Ramsden, R.T.


    Intralabyrinthine schwannomas are rare benign tumours which present with progressive or fluctuant audiovestibular symptoms and may mimic Menieres disease. The size and position of these lesions make preoperative diagnosis unusual and most are discovered incidentally at labyrinthectomy. A case is reported which was diagnosed on magnetic resonance imaging and confirmed at surgery. (orig.)

  2. Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades (United States)

    Satyamurty, Prakki; de Castro, Aline Anderson; Tota, Julio; da Silva Gularte, Lucia Eliane; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar


    Rainfall series at 18 stations along the major rivers of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, having data since 1920s or 1930s, are analyzed to verify if there are appreciable long-term trends. Annual, rainy-season, and dry-season rainfalls are individually analyzed for each station and for the region as a whole. Some stations showed positive trends and some negative trends. The trends in the annual rainfall are significant at only six stations, five of which reporting increasing trends (Barcelos, Belem, Manaus, Rio Branco, and Soure stations) and just one (Itaituba station) reporting decreasing trend. The climatological values of rainfall before and after 1970 show significant differences at six stations (Barcelos, Belem, Benjamin Constant, Iaurete, Itaituba, and Soure). The region as a whole shows an insignificant and weak downward trend; therefore, we cannot affirm that the rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin is experiencing a significant change, except at a few individual stations. Subregions with upward and downward trends are interspersed in space from the far eastern Amazon to western Amazon. Most of the seasonal trends follow the annual trends, thus, indicating a certain consistency in the datasets and analysis.

  3. A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurst,, Brian; Ooi, Yao Hua; Pedersen, Lasse Heje


    In this article, the authors study the performance of trend-following investing across global markets since 1880, extending the existing evidence by more than 100 years using a novel data set. They find that in each decade since 1880, time-series momentum has delivered positive average returns...

  4. The navicular position test - a reliable measure of the navicular bone position during rest and loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spörndly-Nees, Søren; Dåsberg, Brian; Nielsen, Rasmus Oestergaard


    .08 degrees, ICC = 0.91. Discussion: The present data support The Navicular Position Test as a reliable test of the navicular bone position during rest and loading measured in a simple test set-up. Conclusion: The Navicular Position Test was shown to have a high intraday-, intra- and inter-tester reliability...

  5. Trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.; Jones, D.R.


    The goal of exploration is to find reserves that will earn an adequate rate of return on the capital invested. Neither exploration nor economics is an exact science. The authors must therefore explore in those trends (plays) that have the highest probability of achieving this goal. Trend analysis is a technique for organizing the available data to make these strategic exploration decisions objectively and is in conformance with their goals and risk attitudes. Trend analysis differs from resource estimation in its purpose. It seeks to determine the probability of economic success for an exploration program, not the ultimate results of the total industry effort. Thus the recent past is assumed to be the best estimate of the exploration probabilities for the near future. This information is combined with economic forecasts. The computer software tools necessary for trend analysis are (1) Information data base - requirements and sources. (2) Data conditioning program - assignment to trends, correction of errors, and conversion into usable form. (3) Statistical processing program - calculation of probability of success and discovery size probability distribution. (4) Analytical processing - Monte Carlo simulation to develop the probability distribution of the economic return/investment ratio for a trend. Limited capital (short-run) effects are analyzed using the Gambler's Ruin concept in the Monte Carlo simulation and by a short-cut method. Multiple trend analysis is concerned with comparing and ranking trends, allocating funds among acceptable trends, and characterizing program risk by using risk profiles. In summary, trend analysis is a reality check for long-range exploration planning

  6. Quantification of Impact of Orbital Drift on Inter-Annual Trends in AVHRR NDVI Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jyoteshwar R. Nagol


    Full Text Available The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time-series data derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR have been extensively used for studying inter-annual dynamics of global and regional vegetation. However, there can be significant uncertainties in the data due to incomplete atmospheric correction and orbital drift of the satellites through their active life. Access to location specific quantification of uncertainty is crucial for appropriate evaluation of the trends and anomalies. This paper provides per pixel quantification of orbital drift related spurious trends in Long Term Data Record (LTDR AVHRR NDVI data product. The magnitude and direction of the spurious trends was estimated by direct comparison with data from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Aqua instrument, which has stable inter-annual sun-sensor geometry. The maps show presence of both positive as well as negative spurious trends in the data. After application of the BRDF correction, an overall decrease in positive trends and an increase in number of pixels with negative spurious trends were observed. The mean global spurious inter-annual NDVI trend before and after BRDF correction was 0.0016 and −0.0017 respectively. The research presented in this paper gives valuable insight into the magnitude of orbital drift related trends in the AVHRR NDVI data as well as the degree to which it is being rectified by the MODIS BRDF correction algorithm used by the LTDR processing stream.

  7. Nuclear and radiation techniques - state of art and development trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chmielewski, A.G.


    The state of art and development trends of nuclear and radiation techniques in Poland and worldwide have been presented. Among them the radiometric gages, radiation technologies, radiotracer methods and measuring systems for pipeline and vessels, brightness control have been described and their applications in industry, agriculture, health and environment protection have been shown and discussed. 35 refs, 1 fig

  8. Seasonal and elevational contrasts in temperature trends in Central Chile between 1979 and 2015 (United States)

    Burger, F.; Brock, B.; Montecinos, A.


    We analyze trends in temperature from 18 temperature stations and one upper air sounding site at 30°-35° S in central Chile between 1979-2015, to explore geographical and season temperature trends and their controls, using regional ocean-atmosphere indices. Significant warming trends are widespread at inland stations, while trends are non-significant or negative at coastal sites, as found in previous studies. However, ubiquitous warming across the region in the past 8 years, suggests the recent period of coastal cooling has ended. Significant warming trends are largely restricted to austral spring, summer and autumn seasons, with very few significant positive or negative trends in winter identified. Autumn warming is notably strong in the Andes, which, together with significant warming in spring, could help to explain the negative mass balance of snow and glaciers in the region. A strong Pacific maritime influence on regional temperature trends is inferred through correlation with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index and coastal sea surface temperature, but the strength of this influence rapidly diminishes inland, and the majority of valley, and all Andes, sites are independent of the IPO index. Instead, valley and Andes sites, and mid-troposphere temperature in the coastal radiosonde profile, show correlation with the autumn Antarctic Oscillation which, in its current positive phase, promotes subsidence and warming at the latitude of central Chile.

  9. Analyzing Trends in Subjective Well-Being in 15 European Countries, 1973-2002

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnskov, Christian; Gupta, Nabanita Datta; Pedersen, Peder J.


    by exploiting a long and complete time-series from the Eurobarometer Survey, 1973-2002 allowing an examination of trends in life satisfaction across 15 European countries employing a modified version of Kendall's Tau. Our results show that while current GDP growth does not affect trends in well......-being, accelerations in GDP growth do. In addition, faster GDP growth and faster growth of government consumption than in neighbouring countries induces positive trends in life satisfaction. Our findings are consistent with the predictions of aspirations theory and the theory of reference group comparisons.  ...

  10. National trends in occupational injuries before and after 1992 and predictors of workers' compensation costs. (United States)

    Bhushan, Abhinav; Leigh, J Paul


    Numbers and costs of occupational injuries and illnesses are significant in terms of morbidity and dollars, yet our understanding of time trends is minimal. We investigated trends and addressed some common hypotheses regarding causes of fluctuations. We pulled data on incidence rates (per 100 full-time employed workers) for injuries and illnesses from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and on costs and benefits from the National Academy of Social Insurance for 1973 through 2007. Rates reflected all injury and illness cases, lost work-time cases, and cases resulting in at least 31 days away from work. We adjusted dollar costs (premiums) and benefits for inflation and measured them per employed worker. We plotted data in time-trend charts and ran linear regressions. From 1973 to 1991, there was a weak to nonexistent downward trend for injury and illness rates, and rates were strongly and negatively correlated with the unemployment rate. From 1992 to 2007, there were strong, consistent downward trends, but no longer were there statistically significant correlations with unemployment. Significant predictors (and signs) of workers' compensation premiums for 1973-2007 included medical price inflation (positive), number of lost-time injuries (positive), the Dow Jones Industrial Average (negative), and inflation-adjusted interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds (negative). Dollars of benefits were positively and significantly predicted by medical inflation and number of lost-time cases. For 1992-2007, the Dow Jones variable was the only robust predictor of premiums; the number of injuries was not a significant positive predictor. We had two major conclusions. First, the year 1992 marked a sharp contrast in trends and correlations between unemployment and incidence rates for occupational injuries and illnesses. Second, for the entire time period (1973-2007), insurance carriers' premiums were strongly associated with returns on investments.

  11. Trend of Legionella colonization in hospital water supply. (United States)

    D'Alessandro, D; Fabiani, M; Cerquetani, F; Orsi, G B


    In many nosocomial Legionella outbreaks water distribution systems are the most frequent source of infection. Considering the hospital waterline old age, an investigation on colonization by Legionella spp was carried out in order to evaluate the pipeline system weaknesses and to implement environmental preventive measures. From 2004 to 2010, overall 97 samples from the water line were collected. The samples were analyzed according to the italian Legionella spp standard methods; water temperature, pH and residual free chlorine were determined at the time of collection. X2 test, exact-test and t-test were used to compare proportions and means. Overall 28 samples (23.7%) were positive for Legionella spp, and five of them (17.9%) exceeded the threshold level >104 cfu/L. The number of positive samples varied along the years, showing a significant increasing trend (X2 for trend = 11.5; pLegionella spp by comparison to negative ones showed a lower free chlorine concentration (0.08 mg/L vs 0.15 mg/L) and a higher water temperature (46.1° vs 42.7°). Actually the percentage of positive samples decreased significantly with the increasing in free chlorine in the water (X2 for trend = 8.53; pLegionella. All hospital buildings were colonized by Legionella spp, although 80% of samples >104 cfu/L occurred in the C-building. No cases of nosocomial legionellosis were reported during the study period. Hospital water system showed a diffuse colonization by Legionella spp, although the degree of contamination reached the threshold level (>104 cfu/L) only in a small percentage of samples, showing a substantial effectiveness of the control measures applied.

  12. Statistical analysis of trends in monthly precipitation at the Limbang River Basin, Sarawak (NW Borneo), Malaysia (United States)

    Krishnan, M. V. Ninu; Prasanna, M. V.; Vijith, H.


    Effect of climate change in a region can be characterised by the analysis of rainfall trends. In the present research, monthly rainfall trends at Limbang River Basin (LRB) in Sarawak, Malaysia for a period of 45 years (1970-2015) were characterised through the non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests and relative seasonality index. Statistically processed monthly rainfall of 12 well distributed rain gauging stations in LRB shows almost equal amount of rainfall in all months. Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests revealed a specific pattern of rainfall trend with a definite boundary marked in the months of January and August with positive trends in all stations. Among the stations, Limbang DID, Long Napir and Ukong showed positive (increasing) trends in all months with a maximum increase of 4.06 mm/year (p = 0.01) in November. All other stations showed varying trends (both increasing and decreasing). Significant (p = 0.05) decreasing trend was noticed in Ulu Medalam and Setuan during September (- 1.67 and - 1.79 mm/year) and October (- 1.59 and - 1.68 mm/year) in Mann-Kendall and Spearman's Rho tests. Spatial pattern of monthly rainfall trends showed two clusters of increasing rainfalls (maximas) in upper and lower part of the river basin separated with a dominant decreasing rainfall corridor. The results indicate a generally increasing trend of rainfall in Sarawak, Borneo.

  13. Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service? (United States)

    Kokol, Peter


    Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians. The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis. The trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies. Predictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.

  14. The Geomagnetic Control Concept of The Ionospheric Long- Term Trends (United States)

    Mikhailov, A. V.

    The geomagnetic control concept has been developed to explain long-term trends of the electron concentration in the F2 and E ionospheric regions. Periods with negative and positive foF2, hmF2 and foE trends correspond to the periods of increasing or decreasing geomagnetic activity with the turning points around the end of 1950s, 1960s, and 1980s where trends change their signs. Strong latitudinal and diurnal variations revealed for the foF2 and hmF2 trends can be explained by neutral composition, temperature and thermospheric wind changes. Particle precipitation is important in the auroral zone. The newly proposed concept proceeds from a natural origin of the F2-layer trends rather than an artificial one related to the greenhouse effect. Using the proposed method a very long-term foF2 and foE trends related with general increase of geomagnetic activity in the 20th century has been revealed for the first time. The firstly revealed relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity is due to nitric oxide variations at the E-region heights. This "natural" relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity breaks down around 1970 on many stations presumably due to chemical polution of the upper atmosphere. The increasing rate of rocket and satellite launchings in the late 1960s is considered as a reason.

  15. Landsat-based Analysis of Mountain Forest-tundra Ecotone Response to Climate Trends in Sayan Mountains (United States)

    Kharuk, Viatcheslav I.; Im, Sergey T.; Ranson, K. Jon


    observations of temperatures Siberia has shown a several degree warming over the past 30 years. It is expected that forest will respond to warming at high latitudes through increased tree growth and northward or upward slope migration. migration. Tree response to climate trends is most likely observable in the forest-tundra ecotone, where temperature mainly limits tree growth. Making repeated satellite observations over several decades provides an opportunity to track vegetation response to climate change. Based on Landsat data of the Sayan Mountains, Siberia, there was an increase in forest stand crown closure and an upward tree-line shift in the of the forest-tundra ecotone during the last quarter of the 2oth century,. On-ground observations, supporting these results, also showed regeneration of Siberian pine in the alpine tundra, and the transformation of prostrate Siberian pine and fir into arboreal (upright) forms. During this time period sparse stands transformed into closed stands, with existing closed stands increasing in area at a rate of approx. 1 %/yr, and advancing their upper border at a vertical rate of approx. 1.0 m/yr. In addition, the vertical rate of regeneration propagation is approx. 5 m/yr. It was also found that these changes correlated positively with temperature trends

  16. Trend Estimation and Regression Analysis in Climatological Time Series: An Application of Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter. (United States)

    Visser, H.; Molenaar, J.


    The detection of trends in climatological data has become central to the discussion on climate change due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. To prove detection, a method is needed (i) to make inferences on significant rises or declines in trends, (ii) to take into account natural variability in climate series, and (iii) to compare output from GCMs with the trends in observed climate data. To meet these requirements, flexible mathematical tools are needed. A structural time series model is proposed with which a stochastic trend, a deterministic trend, and regression coefficients can be estimated simultaneously. The stochastic trend component is described using the class of ARIMA models. The regression component is assumed to be linear. However, the regression coefficients corresponding with the explanatory variables may be time dependent to validate this assumption. The mathematical technique used to estimate this trend-regression model is the Kaiman filter. The main features of the filter are discussed.Examples of trend estimation are given using annual mean temperatures at a single station in the Netherlands (1706-1990) and annual mean temperatures at Northern Hemisphere land stations (1851-1990). The inclusion of explanatory variables is shown by regressing the latter temperature series on four variables: Southern Oscillation index (SOI), volcanic dust index (VDI), sunspot numbers (SSN), and a simulated temperature signal, induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHG). In all analyses, the influence of SSN on global temperatures is found to be negligible. The correlations between temperatures and SOI and VDI appear to be negative. For SOI, this correlation is significant, but for VDI it is not, probably because of a lack of volcanic eruptions during the sample period. The relation between temperatures and GHG is positive, which is in agreement with the hypothesis of a warming climate because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The prediction performance of

  17. Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States (United States)

    Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.


    The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

  18. The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends (United States)

    Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A


    Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

  19. Age trends in economically important traits of Merino ewes ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Schalk Cloete

    Schalkwyk et al., 1999a), temperature and spatial position in the incubator (Van ... the eggs was fitted as a random effect, while female age, month of lay and the .... The trend for eggshell structure mirrored that of evaporation rate (Figure 1), ...

  20. Analysis of soybean production and import trends and its import factors in Indonesia (United States)

    Ningrum, I. H.; Irianto, H.; Riptanti, E. W.


    This study aims to analyze the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia and to know the trend and projection of Indonesian soybean production as well as the import in 2016-2020. The basic method used in this research is the description analysis method. The data used are secondary data in the form of time series data from 1979-2015. Methods of data analysis using simultaneous equations model with 2SLS (Two Stage Least Square) method and Trend analysis. The results showed that the factors affecting soybean imports in Indonesia are consumption and production. Consumption has positive effect while production is negatively affected. The percentage changed in soybean imports is greater than the percentage change in consumption and production of soybeans. Consumption is positively influenced by imports and production, while production is influenced positively by consumption and negative by imports. The production trend of soybean in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with a percentage of 11.18% per year. Production in 2016 is projected at 1.110.537 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 1,721,350 tons. The import trend in 2016-2020 has a tendency to increase with an average percentage of 4.13% per year. Import in 2016 is projected at 2.224.188 tons while in 2020 it will increase to 2.611.270 tons.

  1. Online Marketing Trends


    Horecká, Ivana


    This thesis deals with online marketing trends. Its main goal is to define the latest online marketing trends, create a website with the free online marketing trends, and analyse their effectiveness. The theoretical part brings a thorough description of the latest online marketing trends. Moreover, it provides an insight into the latest trends in the website development. The chosen online marketing trends defined in the theoretical part are subsequently applied on a newly created website. All...

  2. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  3. An analysis of surface air temperature trends and variability along the Andes (United States)

    Franquist, Eric S.

    Climate change is difficult to study in mountainous regions such as the Andes since steep changes in elevation cannot always be resolved by climate models. However, it is important to examine temperature trends in this region as rises in surface air temperature are leading to the melting of tropical glaciers. Local communities rely on the glacier-fed streamflow to get their water for drinking, irrigation, and livestock. Moreover, communities also rely on the tourism of hikers who come to the region to view the glaciers. As the temperatures increase, these glaciers are no longer in equilibrium with their current climate and are receding rapidly and decreasing the streamflow. This thesis examines surface air temperature from 858 weather stations across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile in order to analyze changes in trends and variability. Three time periods were studied: 1961--1990, 1971--2000, and 1981--2010. The greatest warming occurred during the period of 1971--2000 with 92% of the stations experiencing positive trends with a mean of 0.24°C/decade. There was a clear shift toward cooler temperatures at all latitudes and below elevations of 500 m during the most recent time period studied (1981--2010). Station temperatures were more strongly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A principal component analysis confirmed ENSO as the main contributor of variability with the most influence in the lower latitudes. There were clear multidecadal changes in correlation strength for the PDO. The PDO contributed the most to the increases in station temperature trends during the 1961--1990 period, consistent with the PDO shift to the positive phase in the middle of this period. There were many strong positive trends at individual stations during the 1971--2000 period; however, these trends could not fully be attributed to ENSO, PDO, or SAM, indicating anthropogenic effects of

  4. A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ficklin, Darren L; Maxwell, Justin T; Gholizadeh, Hamed; Letsinger, Sally L


    We present high spatial-resolution trends of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and selected climate variables from 1979–2013 for the contiguous United States in order to gain an understanding of recent drought trends and their climatic forcings. Based on a spatial grouping analysis, four regions of increasing (upper Midwest, Louisiana, southeastern United States (US), and western US) and decreasing (New England, Pacific Northwest, upper Great Plains, and Ohio River Valley) drought trends based on Mann–Kendall Z values were found. Within these regions, partial correlation and multiple regression for trends in climate variables and PDSI were performed to examine potential climatic controls on these droughts. As expected, there was a US-wide concurrence on drought forcing by precipitation. However, there was correspondence of recent PET trends with recent drought trends in many regions. For regions with an increase in recent droughts, average air temperature was generally the second most important variable after precipitation in determining recent drought trends. Across the regions where recent drought trends are decreasing, there was no clear ranking of climate-variable importance, where trends in average temperature, specific humidity and net radiation all played significant regional roles in determining recent drought trends. Deconstructing the trends in drought show that, while there are regions in the US showing positive and negative trends in drought conditions, the climate forcings for these drought trends are regionally specific. The results of this study allow for the interpretation of the role of the changing hydroclimatic cycle in recent drought trends, which also have implications for the current and impending results of climate change. (letter)

  5. Trends in Social Science: The Impact of Computational and Simulative Models (United States)

    Conte, Rosaria; Paolucci, Mario; Cecconi, Federico

    This paper discusses current progress in the computational social sciences. Specifically, it examines the following questions: Are the computational social sciences exhibiting positive or negative developments? What are the roles of agent-based models and simulation (ABM), network analysis, and other "computational" methods within this dynamic? (Conte, The necessity of intelligent agents in social simulation, Advances in Complex Systems, 3(01n04), 19-38, 2000; Conte 2010; Macy, Annual Review of Sociology, 143-166, 2002). Are there objective indicators of scientific growth that can be applied to different scientific areas, allowing for comparison among them? In this paper, some answers to these questions are presented and discussed. In particular, comparisons among different disciplines in the social and computational sciences are shown, taking into account their respective growth trends in the number of publication citations over the last few decades (culled from Google Scholar). After a short discussion of the methodology adopted, results of keyword-based queries are presented, unveiling some unexpected local impacts of simulation on the takeoff of traditionally poorly productive disciplines.

  6. [From 'triumphalism' to 'postcolonialism': trends in the historiography of tropical medicine]. (United States)

    Mertens, Myriam


    This article highlights some of the most remarkable trends in the historiography of tropical medicine. Focusing on the literature that deals with the 19th and 20th centuries, it describes how by the 1980's triumphalist, apologetic histories were replaced by critical studies that revealed the less positive sides of tropical medicine. It also talks about the increasing influence in medical historiography of the postcolonial body of thought and its dynamic perspective on colonial categories and relations. This postcolonialism turns out to be a fruitful approach, as is shown especially by recent studies that focus on the production of tropical medical knowledge. In fact, the historiography of tropical medicine increasingly contributes to the growing body of literature on science and imperialism that looks for postcolonial alternatives to the diffusionist paradigm. This concern to reject diffusionism (which views imperialism as the basis for the spread of European science to the non-western world) has been noticeable particularly in the Anglo-Saxon academic world. This article calls for the adoption of similar approaches in other historiographic traditions.

  7. Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis


    Y. Wang; P. Konopka; Y. Liu; H. Chen; R. Müller; F. Plöger; M. Riese; Z. Cai; D. Lü


    Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS), the trend of tropospheric ozone (O3) during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photoche...

  8. Constraining East Antarctic mass trends using a Bayesian inference approach (United States)

    Martin-Español, Alba; Bamber, Jonathan L.


    gain due to ice dynamics of 103±15 Gt/yr but this was offset by a negative trend in SMB of 47 Gt/yr, resulting in an overall positive trend of 56±15 Gt/yr. Over 2003-08, the ice dynamics trend is 96 Gt/yr, offset by a strong negative SMB trend of -81 Gt/yr, with a total mass trend of 15±13Gt/yr. Even after relaxing the ice dynamics constraint over East Antarctica, we are unable to reproduce the large positive trend obtained in Zwally2015. We conclude that this result is inconsistent with the combined observations, irrespective of any assumption made about the density of surface elevation changes.

  9. Rabies trends and surveillance capabilities in Zambia | Kabaso ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The main objective of this study was to assess the trends, distribution and positivity rate of rabies cases in Zambia. A retrospective study for the period of 10 years between 2004 and 2014, was conducted by using rabies case reports. The data were analyzed with descriptive statistics and geo-coded in Quantum ...

  10. Long-term trends of surface ozone and its influencing factors at the Mt Waliguan GAW station, China - Part 1: Overall trends and characteristics (United States)

    Xu, Wanyun; Lin, Weili; Xu, Xiaobin; Tang, Jie; Huang, Jianqing; Wu, Hao; Zhang, Xiaochun


    Tropospheric ozone is an important atmospheric oxidant, greenhouse gas and atmospheric pollutant at the same time. The oxidation capacity of the atmosphere, climate, human and vegetation health can be impacted by the increase of the ozone level. Therefore, long-term determination of trends of baseline ozone is highly needed information for environmental and climate change assessment. So far, studies on the long-term trends of ozone at representative sites are mainly available for European and North American sites. Similar studies are lacking for China and many other developing countries. Measurements of surface ozone were carried out at a baseline Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) station in the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau region (Mt Waliguan, 36°17' N, 100°54' E, 3816 m a.s.l.) for the period of 1994 to 2013. To uncover the variation characteristics, long-term trends and influencing factors of surface ozone at this remote site in western China, a two-part study has been carried out, with this part focusing on the overall characteristics of diurnal, seasonal and long-term variations and the trends of surface ozone. To obtain reliable ozone trends, we performed the Mann-Kendall trend test and the Hilbert-Huang transform (HHT) analysis on the ozone data. Our results confirm that the mountain-valley breeze plays an important role in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone at Waliguan, resulting in higher ozone values during the night and lower ones during the day, as was previously reported. Systematic diurnal and seasonal variations were found in mountain-valley breezes at the site, which were used in defining season-dependent daytime and nighttime periods for trend calculations. Significant positive trends in surface ozone were detected for both daytime (0.24 ± 0.16 ppbv year-1) and nighttime (0.28 ± 0.17 ppbv year-1). The largest nighttime increasing rate occurred in autumn (0.29 ± 0.11 ppbv year-1), followed by spring (0.24 ± 0.12 ppbv year-1), summer (0.22 ± 0

  11. Contemporary trends in the hotel industry development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barjaktarović Dragan


    Full Text Available International tourism has a leading position in the world's economy at the end of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century. The number of participants in international tourism is near one billion tourists. Tourism FX income is above USD 1.260 billion, globally. More than 2/3 of total tourism turn over is provided by hospitality and restaurants business, which is the best indicator of relevance of those industries, for further development of total economic development and the tourism. Projections of different relevant world's institutions go in direction that tourism will have dynamic developing trend which will provide its' stronger position in the world's industry development. In accordance with UNWTO's estimations, number of foreign tourists will increase up to 1.8 million and FX tourist income is expected to reach USD 2.000 billion at the end of 2030. In order to meet the sophisticated requests of the modern tourists and provide an answer to contemporary market trends, hotel industry, as the base part of tourism, will respond with the new qualitative, technology based facilities and services.

  12. Double Threshold in bi- and multilingual contexts: Preconditions for positive language influence in English as an additional language

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone eLechner


    Full Text Available Bi- and multilingualism has been shown to have positive effects on the attainment of third and additional lan-guages. These effects, however, depend on the type of bi- and multilingualism and the status of the languages involved (Cenoz 2003; Jessner 2006. In this explorative trend study, we revisit Cummins’ Threshold Hypothesis (1979, claiming that bilingual children must reach certain levels of attainment in order to a avoid academic deficits and b allow bilingualism to have a positive effect on their cognitive development and academic attain-ment. To this end, we examine the attainment of English as an academic language of 16-year-old school children from Hamburg (n=52. Our findings support the existence of thresholds for literacy attainment. We argue that language external factors may override positive effects of bilingualism. In addition, these factors may compensate negative effects attributable to low literacy attainment in German and the heritage languages. We also show that low attainment levels in migrant children’s heritage languages preempt high literacy attainment in additional languages.

  13. Special study for the statistical evaluation of groundwater data trends. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    Analysis of trends over time in the concentrations of chemicals in groundwater at Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project sites can provide valuable information for monitoring the performance of disposal cells and the effectiveness of groundwater restoration activities. Random variation in data may obscure real trends or may produce the illusion of a trend where none exists, so statistical methods are needed to reliably detect and estimate trends. Trend analysis includes both trend detection and estimation. Trend detection uses statistical hypothesis testing and provides a yes or no answer regarding the existence of a trend. Hypothesis tests try to reach a balance between false negative and false positive conclusions. To quantify the magnitude of a trend, estimation is required. This report presents the statistical concepts that are necessary for understanding trend analysis. The types of patterns most likely to occur in UMTRA data sets are emphasized. Two general approaches to analyzing data for trends are proposed and recommendations are given to assist UMTRA Project staff in selecting an appropriate method for their site data. Trend analysis is much more difficult when data contain values less than the reported laboratory detection limit. The complications that arise are explained. This report also discusses the impact of data collection procedures on statistical trend methods and offers recommendations to improve the efficiency of the methods and reduce sampling costs. Guidance for determining how many sampling rounds might be needed by statistical methods to detect trends of various magnitudes is presented. This information could be useful in planning site monitoring activities

  14. Product Differentiation and Positioning: Confused Concepts


    Shaheen Borna; Joseph Chapman


    This article examines two common marketing terms: product positioning and product differentiation. Many authors use these terms interchangeably, yet most marketing texts treat product positioning and product differentiation as two seperate concepts. This article attempts to identify the underlying concepts of both product differentiation and product positioning. Product differentiation is shown to be a special case of product positioning: therefore, it is suggested that marketers may want to ...

  15. Speed trends in male distance running.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy N Kruse

    Full Text Available The major cycling "Grand Tours" have shown an attenuation of performance over the last decade. This has been interpreted as circumstantial evidence that newer anti-doping strategies have reduced the use of performance-enhancing drugs. To examine this idea under more controlled conditions, speed trends for world class 5000 m, 10000 m, and marathon performances by men from 1980 to 2013 were analyzed. We obtained comprehensive records from the International Association of Athletics Federations, Association of Road Racing Statisticians, and the Track and Field All-time Performances database webpages. The top 40 performances for each event and year were selected for regression analysis. For the three distances, we noted cumulative performance improvements in the 1990s thru the mid-2000s. After the peak speed years of the mid 2000 s, there has been limited improvement in the 5000 m and 10,000 m and world records set during that time remain in place today, marking the longest period of time between new records since the early 1940s. By contrast marathon speed continues to increase and the world record has been lowered four times since 2007, including in 2013. While the speed trends for 5000 m and 10000 m track results parallel those seen in elite cycling, the marathon trends do not. We discuss a number of explanations other than improved anti-doping strategies that might account for these divergent findings.

  16. What Are We Drinking? Beverages Shown in Adolescents' Favorite Television Shows. (United States)

    Eisenberg, Marla E; Larson, Nicole I; Gollust, Sarah E; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne


    Media use has been shown to contribute to poor dietary intake; however, little attention has been paid to programming content. The portrayal of health behaviors in television (TV) programming contributes to social norms among viewers, which have been shown to influence adolescent behavior. This study reports on a content analysis of beverages shown in a sample of TV shows popular with a large, diverse group of adolescents, with attention to the types of beverages and differences across shows and characters. Favorite TV shows were assessed in an in-school survey in 2010. Three episodes of each of the top 25 shows were analyzed, using a detailed coding instrument. Beverage incidents (ie, beverage shown or described) were recorded. Beverage types included milk, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), diet beverages, juice, water, alcoholic drinks, and coffee. Characters were coded with regard to gender, age group, race, and weight status. Shows were rated for a youth, general, or adult audience. χ 2 tests were used to compare the prevalence of each type of beverage across show ratings (youth, general, adult), and to compare characteristics of those involved in each type of beverage incident. Beverage incidents were common (mean=7.4 incidents/episode, range=0 to 25). Alcohol was the most commonly shown (38.8%); milk (5.8%) and juice (5.8%) were least common; 11.0% of incidents included SSBs. Significant differences in all types of beverage were found across characters' age groups. Almost half of young adults' (49.2%) or adults' (42.0%) beverage incidents included alcohol. Beverages are often portrayed on TV shows viewed by adolescents, and common beverages (alcohol, SSBs) may have adverse consequences for health. The portrayal of these beverages likely contributes to social norms regarding their desirability; nutrition and health professionals should talk with youth about TV portrayals to prevent the adoption of unhealthy beverage behaviors. Copyright © 2017 Academy of

  17. What are we drinking? Beverages shown in adolescents’ favorite TV shows (United States)

    Eisenberg, Marla E.; Larson, Nicole I.; Gollust, Sarah E.; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne


    Background Media use has been shown to contribute to poor dietary intake; however, little attention has been paid to programming content. The portrayal of health behaviors in television (TV) programming contributes to social norms among viewers, which have been shown to influence adolescent behavior. Objective This study reports on a content analysis of beverages shown in a sample of TV shows popular with a large, diverse group of adolescents, with attention to the types of beverages and differences across shows and characters. Design Favorite TV shows were assessed in an in-school survey in 2010. Three episodes of each of the top 25 shows were analyzed using a detailed coding instrument. Key measures Beverage incidents (i.e. beverage shown or described) were recorded. Beverage types included milk, sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB), diet beverages, juice, water, alcoholic drinks and coffee. Characters were coded with regards to gender, age group, race, and weight status. Shows were rated for a youth, general or adult audience. Statistical analyses Chi-square tests were used to compare the prevalence of each type of beverage across show ratings (youth, general, adult), and to compare characteristics of those involved in each type of beverage incident. Results Beverage incidents were common (mean=7.4 incidents/episode, range=0–25). Alcohol was the most commonly shown (38.8%); milk (5.8%) and juice (5.8%) were least common; 11.0% of incidents included SSB. Significant differences in all types of beverage were found across age groups. Almost half of young adults’ (49.2%) or adults’ (42.0%) beverage incidents included alcohol. Conclusions Beverages are often portrayed on TV shows viewed by adolescents, and common beverages (alcohol, SSB) may have adverse consequences for health. The portrayal of these beverages likely contributes to social norms regarding their desirability; nutrition and health professionals should talk with youth about TV portrayals to prevent the

  18. Cone-Beam Computed Tomography–Guided Positioning of Laryngeal Cancer Patients with Large Interfraction Time Trends in Setup and Nonrigid Anatomy Variations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gangsaas, Anne; Astreinidou, Eleftheria; Quint, Sandra; Levendag, Peter C.; Heijmen, Ben


    Purpose: To investigate interfraction setup variations of the primary tumor, elective nodes, and vertebrae in laryngeal cancer patients and to validate protocols for cone beam computed tomography (CBCT)-guided correction. Methods and Materials: For 30 patients, CBCT-measured displacements in fractionated treatments were used to investigate population setup errors and to simulate residual setup errors for the no action level (NAL) offline protocol, the extended NAL (eNAL) protocol, and daily CBCT acquisition with online analysis and repositioning. Results: Without corrections, 12 of 26 patients treated with radical radiation therapy would have experienced a gradual change (time trend) in primary tumor setup ≥4 mm in the craniocaudal (CC) direction during the fractionated treatment (11/12 in caudal direction, maximum 11 mm). Due to these trends, correction of primary tumor displacements with NAL resulted in large residual CC errors (required margin 6.7 mm). With the weekly correction vector adjustments in eNAL, the trends could be largely compensated (CC margin 3.5 mm). Correlation between movements of the primary and nodal clinical target volumes (CTVs) in the CC direction was poor (r 2 =0.15). Therefore, even with online setup corrections of the primary CTV, the required CC margin for the nodal CTV was as large as 6.8 mm. Also for the vertebrae, large time trends were observed for some patients. Because of poor CC correlation (r 2 =0.19) between displacements of the primary CTV and the vertebrae, even with daily online repositioning of the vertebrae, the required CC margin around the primary CTV was 6.9 mm. Conclusions: Laryngeal cancer patients showed substantial interfraction setup variations, including large time trends, and poor CC correlation between primary tumor displacements and motion of the nodes and vertebrae (internal tumor motion). These trends and nonrigid anatomy variations have to be considered in the choice of setup verification protocol and

  19. Patient positioning and ventilator-associated pneumonia. (United States)

    Hess, Dean R


    Rotational beds, prone position, and semi-recumbent position have been proposed as procedures to prevent ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). Rotational therapy uses a special bed designed to turn continuously, or nearly continuously, the patient from side to side; specific designs include kinetic therapy and continuous lateral rotation therapy. A meta-analysis of studies evaluating the effect of rotational bed therapy shows a decrease in the risk of pneumonia but no effect on mortality. Two studies reported a lower risk of VAP in patients placed in a prone position, with no effect on mortality. Studies using radiolabeled enteral feeding solutions in mechanically ventilated patients have reported that aspiration of gastric contents occurs to a greater degree when patients are in the supine position, compared with the semirecumbent position. One study reported a lower rate of VAP in patients randomized to semi-recumbent compared to supine position. Although each of the techniques discussed in this paper has been shown to reduce the risk of VAP, none has been shown to affect mortality. The available evidence suggests that semi-recumbent position should be used routinely, rotational therapy should be considered in selected patients, and prone position should not be used as a technique to reduce the risk of VAP.

  20. Breakpoints in annual rainfall trends in Córdoba, Argentina (United States)

    de la Casa, Antonio; Nasello, Olga


    Long-term rainfall variability in the Province of Córdoba, Argentina is studied. The methodology used was developed by Tomé and Miranda (2004), and the most notable breakpoints in the time series were determined in order to identify sudden transitions from one period to another with a different linear trend sign. All the rain gauges operated by the "Servicio Meteorológico Nacional" (SMN) of Argentina in Córdoba Province, in the period 1930-2006, were analyzed. One of the stations studied, Córdoba Observatorio, has reliable rainfall data since 1873. In this case, the 1925-2006 period and the 1873-2006 period were studied to analyze the influence of series length in terms of the piecewise linear trends produced. Analyzing only one breakpoint in all the series, a trend change is observed from negative to positive in the 1950s in the north area of the region, while in the other areas the opposite change occurs in the 1970s. The residual sum of squares obtained with the partial trend method is compared to that produced by the traditional method. This comparison shows how the multiple trend method enables regional changes to be determined for a given climatological variable.

  1. Noise in position measurement by centroid calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkov, P.


    The position of a particle trajectory in a gaseous (or semiconductor) detector can be measured by calculating the centroid of the induced charge on the cathode plane. The charge amplifiers attached to each cathode strip introduce noise which is added to the signal. This noise broadens the position resolution line. Our article gives an analytical tool to estimate the resolution broadening due to the noise per strip and the number of strips involved in the centroid calculation. It is shown that the position resolution increases faster than the square root of the number of strips involved. We also consider the consequence of added interstrip capacitors, intended to diminish the differential nonlinearity. It is shown that the position error increases slower than linearly with the interstrip capacities, due to the cancellation of correlated noise. The estimation we give, can be applied to calculations of position broadening other than the centroid finding. (orig.)

  2. Serial position learning in honeybees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Randolf Menzel

    Full Text Available Learning of stimulus sequences is considered as a characteristic feature of episodic memory since it contains not only a particular item but also the experience of preceding and following events. In sensorimotor tasks resembling navigational performance, the serial order of objects is intimately connected with spatial order. Mammals and birds develop episodic(-like memory in serial spatio-temporal tasks, and the honeybee learns spatio-temporal order when navigating between the nest and a food source. Here I examine the structure of the bees' memory for a combined spatio-temporal task. I ask whether discrimination and generalization are based solely on simple forms of stimulus-reward learning or whether they require sequential configurations. Animals were trained to fly either left or right in a continuous T-maze. The correct choice was signaled by the sequence of colors (blue, yellow at four positions in the access arm. If only one of the possible 4 signals is shown (either blue or yellow, the rank order of position salience is 1, 2 and 3 (numbered from T-junction. No learning is found if the signal appears at position 4. If two signals are shown, differences at positions 1 and 2 are learned best, those at position 3 at a low level, and those at position 4 not at all. If three or more signals are shown these results are corroborated. This salience rank order again appeared in transfer tests, but additional configural phenomena emerged. Most of the results can be explained with a simple model based on the assumption that the four positions are equipped with different salience scores and that these add up independently. However, deviations from the model are interpreted by assuming stimulus configuration of sequential patterns. It is concluded that, under the conditions chosen, bees rely most strongly on memories developed during simple forms of associative reward learning, but memories of configural serial patterns contribute, too.

  3. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ghana Mining Journal ... Data quality may be expressed in terms of several indicators such as attributes, temporal or positional accuracies. ... It is concluded that for the purpose of shoreline change analysis, such as shoreline change trends, large scale data sources should be used where possible for accurate ...

  4. Positional Accuracy Assessment for Effective Shoreline Change ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)



    Jun 1, 2016 ... as backdrop in GIS environment. Positional error of ... integrated dataset obviously bore the cumulative effect of the input datasets. ... change. The shoreline, which is the interface between land ... modelling, which enables future shoreline change trend to ..... as gaps due to cloud cover and limitation of the.

  5. SDG and qualitative trend based model multiple scale validation (United States)

    Gao, Dong; Xu, Xin; Yin, Jianjin; Zhang, Hongyu; Zhang, Beike


    Verification, Validation and Accreditation (VV&A) is key technology of simulation and modelling. For the traditional model validation methods, the completeness is weak; it is carried out in one scale; it depends on human experience. The SDG (Signed Directed Graph) and qualitative trend based multiple scale validation is proposed. First the SDG model is built and qualitative trends are added to the model. And then complete testing scenarios are produced by positive inference. The multiple scale validation is carried out by comparing the testing scenarios with outputs of simulation model in different scales. Finally, the effectiveness is proved by carrying out validation for a reactor model.

  6. Can trade opportunities and returns be generated in a trend persistent series? Evidence from global indices (United States)

    Mitra, S. K.; Bawa, Jaslene


    In this study, we explore the possibility of generating trade opportunities and returns when a financial stock index series is trend persistent. Through application of Hurst coefficient based on the modified range to standard deviation analysis (Weron, 2002) in a sample of 31 leading global indices during the period December 2000 to November 2015, we found periods of trend persistence. We developed and tested a set of trading strategies on these periods of trend persistent in the financial series and found that significant positive returns can be generated when a series displayed upward trend persistence.

  7. Recent adverse trends in semen quality and testis cancer incidence among Finnish men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jorgensen, N.; Vierula, M.; Jacobsen, R.


    Impaired semen quality and testicular cancer may be linked through a testicular dysgenesis syndrome of foetal origin. The incidence of testis cancer has been shown to increase among Finnish men, whereas there is no recent publication describing temporal trends in semen quality. Therefore, we...... carried out a prospective semen quality study and a registry study of testis cancer incidence among Finnish men to explore recent trends. A total of 858 men were investigated in the semen quality study during 1998-2006. Median sperm concentrations were 67 (95% CI 57-80) million/mL, 60 (51-71) and 48 (39...

  8. Trends in alcohol-related harms and offences in a liberalized alcohol environment. (United States)

    Huckle, Taisia; Pledger, Megan; Casswell, Sally


    To assess alcohol-related harms and offences in New Zealand from 1990 to 2003, a period of alcohol policy liberalization, that included the lowering of the purchase age from 20 to 18 years in 1999. Time trend analyses were carried out on routinely collected data for prosecutions for driving with excess alcohol; alcohol-involved vehicle crashes (all and fatal) and prosecutions for disorder offences. These were carried out separately for those aged 14-15, 16-17, 18-19, 20-24 and 25 years and over. Rates of: prosecutions for driving with excess alcohol (1990-2003); rates of alcohol- involved vehicle crashes (all and fatal) (1990-2003); and rates of prosecutions for disorder offences (1994-2003). Effects of alcohol policy liberalization: positive trends were found in the rates of prosecutions for disorder in the 16-17, 18-19, 20-24 and 25 + age groups; with 18-19-year-olds and 16-17-year-olds having the largest rates and largest positive trend in rates. For 16-17-year-olds, there was a positive trend in the rates of prosecutions for excess breath alcohol. Negative trends in rates were found for alcohol-related crashes (all and fatal) among all age groups. Negative trends for those over 16-17 years were found for prosecutions for driving with excess breath alcohol (this was prior to the lowering of the purchase age). Effects of lowering the minimum purchase age: the lowering of minimum purchase age coincided with an increase in the trend of alcohol-related crashes for 18-19-year-olds; the next largest increase was among the 20-24-year-olds (all other age groups also increased but at a much lower rate). A similar result was found for driving with excess alcohol for those aged 18-19 (and those aged 20-24 years). An increase in the rates of prosecutions for disorder offences occurred for the 14-15-year-old group following the lowering of the purchase age. The liberalization of alcohol throughout the 1990s may have influenced younger people more, as reflected in increases

  9. Trends of climatic changes considering over years 1894-1993 and 1894-2003 for Sarajevo

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Majstorovic, Zeljko; Toromanovic, Aida; Halilovic, Senada


    Linear trends of changes in climatic parameters have been observed for Sarajevo and we considered correlation with world's trends and mutual correlation of years .1894-1993 and 1894-2003, both for the same meteorological station Sarajevo. In purpose of ascertaining correlation with global climate's changes, Sarajevo's records have been studied over the primary climatic parameters: average annual temperatures, absolute annual maximum and minimum temperatures, annual sum of rainfalls and drought index. We used method of adding of linear trends. Correlation with global tendency of climate has be shown as follow: - We notice increase of average temperature about 0.7 o C in past 100 years - We notice a rapid increase of absolute minimum temperature in compare with values of absolute maximum temperatures. - Annual sum of rainfalls doesn't show drastic changes. - We notice asymmetry trend for some actual seasons. - We notice increase of drought. During correlation of trends for years 1894-1993 and 1894-2003 has been noticed rapid increase of temperature and drought-index, while considering rainfalls there has not been drastic changes. (Author)

  10. Tracking Equilibrium and Nonequilibrium Shifts in Data with TREND


    Xu, Jia; Van Doren, Steven R.


    Principal component analysis (PCA) discovers patterns in multivariate data that include spectra, microscopy, and other biophysical measurements. Direct application of PCA to crowded spectra, images, and movies (without selecting peaks or features) was shown recently to identify their equilibrium or temporal changes. To enable the community to utilize these capabilities with a wide range of measurements, we have developed multiplatform software named TREND to Track Equilibrium and Nonequilibri...

  11. Recent trends in gas pricing in economies in transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornot-Gandolplhe, S.


    This paper deals with end-user gas price movements in economies in transition since 1990 and with present problems associated with rising of gas prices levels. The first part stresses the major discrepancies existing between countries in transition with regard to their economic situation and their gas market. Historical gas price movements are shown in the second part, which analyzes the main trends observed in economies in transition and problems encountered when raising the gas prices

  12. Temporal and spatial trends for trace metals in streams and rivers across Sweden (1996–2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Fölster


    Full Text Available Long term data series (1996 through 2009 for trace metals were analyzed from a large number of streams and rivers across Sweden varying in tributary watershed size from 0.05 to 48 193 km2. The final data set included 139 stream sites with data for arsenic (As, cobalt (Co, copper (Cu, chromium (Cr, nickel (Ni, lead (Pb, zinc (Zn, and vanadium (V. Between 7 % and 46 % of the sites analyzed showed significant trends according to the seasonal Kendall test. However, in contrast to previous studies and depositional patterns, a substantial portion of the trends were positive, especially for V (100 %, As (95 %, and Pb (68 %. Other metals (Zn and Cr generally decreased, were mixed (Ni and Zn, or had very few trends (Co over the study period. Trends by region were also analyzed and some showed significant variation between the north and south of Sweden. Regional trends for both Cu and Pb were positive (60 % and 93 %, respectively in the southern region but strongly negative (93 % and 75 %, respectively in the northern region. Kendall's τ coefficients were used to determine dependence between metals and potential in-stream drivers including total organic carbon (TOC, iron (Fe, pH, and sulphate (SO42−. TOC and Fe correlated positively and strongly with As, V, Pb, and Co while pH and SO42− generally correlated weakly, or not at all with the metals studied.

  13. Estimation of Nitrate Trends in the Groundwater of the Zagreb Aquifer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Kovač


    Full Text Available Nitrates present one of the main groundwater contaminants in the world and in the Zagreb aquifer. The Zagreb aquifer presents the main source of potable water for the inhabitants of the City of Zagreb and it is protected by the Republic of Croatia. The determination of contaminants trends presents one of the main tools in groundwater body status and risk assessment. In this paper, the use of regression analysis on the aggregated data, together with confidence and prediction intervals, at different observation scales has been evaluated. Nitrate concentrations are generally decreasing in almost all areas, observed at different observation scales. It has been shown that linear regression can be efficiently used in the estimation of nitrates trends. Results showed that the calculation of confidence and prediction intervals can provide more useful conclusions than the calculation of the trend’s statistical significance. Also, the results suggest that confidence and prediction intervals can be used in groundwater body chemical status and risk assessment, respectively. Data smoothing and data aggregation are generally desirable, but have certain limitations. If too much data is aggregated, trend estimation by regression analysis can point to false conclusions. Evaluation of trends at different observational scales can provide more realistic trend estimation, as well as more precise identification of areas where groundwater protection measures should be implemented.

  14. Flavoured Wine – Fad, Fashion or Trend?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Damien


    With this divergence between publicity and market behaviour being echoing across the globe, wine producers need to be able to determine whether a new category represents an opportunity to consider a strategic change in business direction. Although publicity has been shown to effect a change in wine consumer behaviour, the conditions surrounding a new wine category's growth from fad, trend and fashion are analysed for the purpose of strategic management. This study extends findings from historical narratives through the use of empirical evidence from both European and New World wine markets. The evidence is contrasted with a contemporary phenomenological experience expressed by influencers within both of those markets, as a means to illustrate the disparity between the contemporary appeal of popular publicity, and the challenges faced by wine producers having to respond to the market reality. This study illustrates that implementing strategic decisions on whether to engage in a new trend, depends on the innovative category being consistent with existing strategy and able to impact the market without reliance on external publicity.

  15. Factors associated with specific causes of death amongst HIV-positive individuals in the D:A:D Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, Colette; Sabin, Caroline A; Lundgren, Jens D


    To investigate any emerging trends in causes of death amongst HIV-positive individuals in the current cART era, and to investigate the factors associated with each specific cause of death.......To investigate any emerging trends in causes of death amongst HIV-positive individuals in the current cART era, and to investigate the factors associated with each specific cause of death....

  16. Changing Trends in Gastric Cancer Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İlter Özer


    Full Text Available Gastric cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer-related death. It requires multimodal treatment and surgery is the most effective treatment modality. Radical surgery includes total or subtotal gastrectomy with lymph node dissection. The extent of lymphadenectomy still remains controversial. Eastern surgeons have performed D2 or more extended lymphadenectomy while their Western colleagues have performed more limited lymph node dissection. However, the trend has been changing in favour of D2 lymph node dissection in both hemispheres. Currently, D2 is the recommended type of lymphadenectomy in experienced centres in the west. In Japan, D2 lymph node dissection is the standard surgical approach. More extensive lymphadenectomy than D2 has not been found to be associated with improved survival and generally is not performed. Bursectomy and splenectomy are additional controversial issues in surgical performance, and trends regarding them will be discussed. The performance of bursectomy is controversial and there is no clear evidence of its clinical benefit. However, a trend toward better survival in patients with serosal invasion has been reported. Routine splenectomy as a part of lymph node dissection has largely been abandoned, although splenectomy is recommended in selected cases. Minimally invasive surgery has gained wide popularity and indications for minimally invasive procedures have been expanding due to increasing experience and improving technology. Neoadjuvant therapy has been shown to have beneficial effects and seems necessary to provide a survival benefit. Diagnostic laparoscopy should be kept in mind prior to treatment

  17. Vehicle positioning based on UWB technology (United States)

    Hu, Siquan; Kang, Min; She, Chundong


    In recent years, with the rapid increase of the number of urban cars, the vehicle internet is becoming a trend of smart transportion. In such vehicle network, accurate location is very crucial in many new applications such as autopilot, semi-autopilot and Car-to-x communications. UWB technology has been used for indoor closed range positioning and ranging widely, while UWB outdoor positioning and ranging research is relatively less. This paper proposed UWB as the vehicle positioning technology and developed a method based on two-way-ranging (TWR) to solve the ranging problem between vehicles. At the same time, the improved TOA method was used to locate vehicles, which has higher precision compared with traditional GPS or LBS. A hardware module is introduced and the simulation results show that the modules are capable of precise positioning for vehicles in vehicle network.

  18. AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations (United States)

    Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina


    The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

  19. Trends in adolescent bariatric surgery evaluated by UHC database collection. (United States)

    Pallati, Pradeep; Buettner, Shelby; Simorov, Anton; Meyer, Avishai; Shaligram, Abhijit; Oleynikov, Dmitry


    With increasing childhood obesity, adolescent bariatric surgery has been increasingly performed. We used a national database to analyze current trends in laparoscopic bariatric surgery in the adolescent population and related short-term outcomes. Discharge data from the University Health System Consortium (UHC) database was accessed using International Classification of Disease codes during a 36 month period. UHC is an alliance of more than 110 academic medical centers and nearly 250 affiliate hospitals. All adolescent patients between 13 and 18 years of age, with the assorted diagnoses of obesity, who underwent laparoscopic adjustable gastric banding (LAGB), sleeve gastrectomy (SG), and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) were evaluated. The main outcome measures analyzed were morbidity, mortality, length of hospital stay (LOS), overall cost, intensive care unit (ICU) admission rate, and readmission rate. These outcomes were compared to those of adult bariatric surgery. Adolescent laparoscopic bariatric surgery was performed on 329 patients. At the same time, 49,519 adult bariatric surgeries were performed. One hundred thirty-six adolescent patients underwent LAGB, 47 had SG, and 146 patients underwent LRYGB. LAGB has shown a decreasing trend (n = 68, 34, and 34), while SG has shown an increasing trend (n = 8, 15, and 24) over the study years. LRYGB remained stable (n = 44, 60, and 42) throughout the study period. The individual and summative morbidity and mortality rates for these procedures were zero. Compared to adult bariatric surgery, 30 day in-hospital morbidity (0 vs. 2.2 %, p adolescent bariatric surgery, while the ICU admission rate (9.78 vs. 6.30 %, p adolescent laparoscopic bariatric surgery reveal the increased use of sleeve gastrectomy and adjustable gastric banding falling out of favor.

  20. Multiyear Rainfall and Temperature Trends in the Volta River Basin and their Potential Impact on Hydropower Generation in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amos T. Kabo-Bah


    Full Text Available The effects of temperature and rainfall changes on hydropower generation in Ghana from 1960–2011 were examined to understand country-wide trends of climate variability. Moreover, the discharge and the water level trends for the Akosombo reservoir from 1965–2014 were examined using the Mann-Kendall test statistic to assess localised changes. The annual temperature trend was positive while rainfall showed both negative and positive trends in different parts of the country. However, these trends were not statistically significant in the study regions in 1960 to 2011. Rainfall was not evenly distributed throughout the years, with the highest rainfall recorded between 1960 and 1970 and the lowest rainfalls between 2000 and 2011. The Mann-Kendall test shows an upward trend for the discharge of the Akosombo reservoir and a downward trend for the water level. However, the discharge irregularities of the reservoir do not necessarily affect the energy generated from the Akosombo plant, but rather the regular low flow of water into the reservoir affected power generation. This is the major concern for the operations of the Akosombo hydropower plant for energy generation in Ghana.

  1. Rigorous determination of stratospheric water vapor trends from MIPAS observations. (United States)

    Ceccherini, Simone; Carli, Bruno; Raspollini, Piera; Ridolfi, Marco


    The trend of stratospheric water vapor as a function of latitude is estimated by the MIPAS measurements by means of a new method that uses the measurement space solution. The method uses all the information provided by the observations avoiding the artifacts introduced by the a priori information and by the interpolation to different vertical grids. The analysis provides very precise values of the trends that, however, are limited by a relatively large systematic error induced by the radiometric calibration error of the instrument. The results show in the five years from 2005 to 2009 a dependence on latitude of the stratospheric (from 37 to 53 km) water vapor trend with a positive value of (0.41 ± 0.16)%yr-1 in the northern hemisphere and less than 0.16%yr-1 in the southern hemisphere.

  2. Trends of Bacterial Keratitis Culture Isolates in Jerusalem; a 13- Years Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Politis

    Full Text Available To describe the trends in pathogens and antibacterial resistance of corneal culture isolates in infectious keratitis during a period of 13 years at Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center.A Retrospective analysis of bacterial corneal isolates was performed during the months of January 2002 to December 2014 at Hadassah Hebrew University Medical Center. Demographics, microbiological data and antibiotic resistance and sensitivity were collected.A total of 943 corneal isolates were analyzed during a 13 year period. A total of 415 positive bacterial cultures and 37 positive fungal cultures were recovered, representing 48% of the total cultures. The Annual incidence was 34.78 ± 6.54 cases. The most common isolate was coagulase-negative staphylococcus (32%, which had a significant decrease in trend throughout the study period (APC = -8.1, p = 0.002. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA appears to have a decrease trend (APC = -31.2, P = 0.5. There was an increase in the resistance trend of coagulase-negative staphylococci to penicillin (APC = 5.0, P = <0.001. None of the pathogens had developed any resistance to Vancomycin. (P = 0.88.Coagulase negative staphylococci were the predominant bacteria isolated from patients with keratitis. There was no significant change in the annual incidence of cases of bacterial keratitis seen over the past 13 years. Keratitis caused by MRSA appeared to decrease in contrast to the reported literature.

  3. Global Energy Trends - 2016 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)


    of CO_2 emissions is good news compared to previous years. This is mainly due to the relative weakness of economic growth. Achieving the goals discussed at the COP21 (1.5 to 2 deg. temperature increase by the end of the century), in fact requires a lasting stagnation of global energy consumption and a strong reduction of CO_2 emissions. Thus, with a global GDP growth assumption of 3% per year, this would imply an average carbon intensity reduction target of 5 to 6% per year... (Source: EnerFuture Scenarios - Enerdata) If energy consumption is stagnating, however, we find different trends according to the markets: The oil market is particularly linked to the transport sector; the increase in demand recorded in 2015 (+2%) derives primarily from the increase in vehicle fleet (China, India...) and to a lesser extent from lower prices (particularly in the US). The decline in investments in the upstream sector leaves us to predict, however, a decrease in mid-term production capacity and new pressure on supply/demand.. Gas demand remained stable in 2015: The structural increase continues in the US (replacing coal); in a more cyclical manner, the demand benefited from a colder climate in Europe but fell sharply in Russia (economic recession). At the production level, the US is No. 1 worldwide before Russia, but with a downward trend for several months (shale gas). Coal consumption decreases: Confirming the surprise in 2014: thanks to a new decline observed in China (-3.7%) and in the US (-11%), and despite continued strong growth in India, demand for coal shrinks at the G20 level (-2.7%). Stagnation of power consumption: The demand in power has been stagnant for several years in developed countries. The result is more surprising for non-OECD countries, where growth shrinks significantly. Is this a sign of a slowdown of the increasing weight of power in the overall mix? Power mix continues its slow transformation: In recent years, energy policies have shown visible effects

  4. Secular trends of growth and pubertal maturation of school children in Southern Thailand. (United States)

    Jaruratanasirikul, Somchit; Sriplung, Hutcha


    In Thailand, studies of growth date back to 1975, but there have been no studies examining any trends in increasing/decreasing growth. To determine if there have been any secular trends of increasing/decreasing growth and/or ages at puberty in Thai children. In 2012, a cross-sectional study of growth was conducted in 3460 children. The median heights and weights and the ages of pubertal maturation were compared with previous studies. Correlations between the secular trends and the health statistics indicators were calculated. From 1975-2012, the median final height of boys and girls had increased by 1.32 and 0.86 cm/decade and weight by 2.49 and 1.76 kg/decade, respectively. In girls, the age at thelarche and menarche had declined by 0.39 and 0.12 years/decade, respectively. In boys, the age at testicular enlargement Tanner II had declined by 0.15 years/decade. Increased physical growth was positively correlated to life expectancy, per capita income and prevalence of overweight/obesity was negatively correlated to prevalence of malnutrition and under-five mortality rate. The positive secular trend towards an increase in growth and a decline in the age at onset of puberty of Thai children is correlated with improvements in overall living conditions in Thailand.

  5. Entertainment nature of modern television: prospects and trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Андрій Олександрович Недо


    Full Text Available This article describes trends of the development of entertainment television in Ukraine as westernization, McDonaldization, tabloidization, development of post-show. Westernization is viewed as the process of borrowing commercial formats of entertainment shows from the US and Western Europe. McDonaldization is considered as a process of simplifying program formats. Tabloidization is shown as a process of manipulating the viewer’s attention through lively and provocative announcements of programs. Development of post-show is covered as a process of creating programs that supplement reality shows

  6. Revolutionary business trends in supply chain management


    Mijušković Veljko


    Contemporary turbulent business conditions in the era of high technology bring inherent rapid changes. In order to survive, the imperative set upon all market players is not the position of a follower but more of an anticipator and trend setter. These unexpected changes erase existing business models, traditional enterprise paradigms and customary philosophies. A business isolated in its way of seeing operations and unconnected with other strategic constituents within the supply chain is dest...

  7. Towards better service in restaurants by monitoring trends: Display of nutritional values on the menus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivkov Milan


    Full Text Available Business obligations, the manner and pace of life today, and a large number of options when it comes to eating out, require that at least one meal is consumed outside the residence or using the services of catering and retail facilities. With this in mind, restaurants are forced to fight in the market and to differentiate the specific offer to attract a particular segment of the market. Differentiation is possible through monitoring the trends and timely adjustments to more demanding consumer needs. In this way, restaurateurs also contribute to greater customer satisfaction through quality service, which also has a positive effect on the restaurant and sales performance. Based on the results of the survey of 82 respondents, it was concluded that nutritional information shown within menus is of no importance, and also that such information does not affect the selection of dishes. Although nutritional information can be helpful in selecting more favourable and healthy food, neither men nor women care about it.

  8. Assessing the gap in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology: trends over a 20-year period. (United States)

    McKenzie, Kristopher; Ramonas, Milita; Patlas, Michael; Katz, Douglas S


    To examine trends in female authorship in the journal Emergency Radiology from January 1994 to December 2014. We obtained institutional review board approval for our study. We retrospectively reviewed a total of 1617 articles published in the journal Emergency Radiology over a 20-year period. Original articles, case reports, review articles, and pictorial essays were included. The first and last position author's gender was categorized as female or male. We analyzed trends by comparing the first and last position authors of original articles from the first and last year reviewed. We utilized Chi-square test for statistical analysis, with a p value gender of 96% of the authors. Overall, female authors were 21% of first position authors (290 of 1368) and 15% of last position authors (183 of 1246). Thirty-two percent of articles with female last position authors also had female first position authors (58 of 183). There was a statistically significant increase in female last position authors, from 12.9% in 1994 to 21.3% in 2014 (p = 0.026), a non-significant increase in female first position authors, from 17.5% in 1994 to 20.9% in 2014 (p = 0.514), and a non-significant increase in articles with both a first and last female author, from 25% in 1994 to 35% in 2014 (p = 0.593). Over the last 20 years, there has been a statistically significant upward trend in female last position authors publishing in the journal Emergency Radiology.

  9. 0.1 Trend analysis of δ18O composition of precipitation in Germany: Combining Mann-Kendall trend test and ARIMA models to correct for higher order serial correlation (United States)

    Klaus, Julian; Pan Chun, Kwok; Stumpp, Christine


    .s.l.). Higher order autoregressive processes are important in the isotope time series analysis. Our results show that the widely used trend analysis with only the first order autocorrelation adjustment may not adequately take account of the high order autocorrelated processes in the stable isotope series. The investigated time series analysis method including higher autocorrelation and external climate variable adjustments is shown to be a better alternative.

  10. Non-parametric trend analysis of the aridity index for three large arid and semi-arid basins in Iran (United States)

    Ahani, Hossien; Kherad, Mehrzad; Kousari, Mohammad Reza; van Roosmalen, Lieke; Aryanfar, Ramin; Hosseini, Seyyed Mashaallah


    Currently, an important scientific challenge that researchers are facing is to gain a better understanding of climate change at the regional scale, which can be especially challenging in an area with low and highly variable precipitation amounts such as Iran. Trend analysis of the medium-term change using ground station observations of meteorological variables can enhance our knowledge of the dominant processes in an area and contribute to the analysis of future climate projections. Generally, studies focus on the long-term variability of temperature and precipitation and to a lesser extent on other important parameters such as moisture indices. In this study the recent 50-year trends (1955-2005) of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and aridity index (AI) in monthly time scale were studied over 14 synoptic stations in three large Iran basins using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Additionally, an analysis of the monthly, seasonal and annual trend of each parameter was performed. Results showed no significant trends in the monthly time series. However, PET showed significant, mostly decreasing trends, for the seasonal values, which resulted in a significant negative trend in annual PET at five stations. Significant negative trends in seasonal P values were only found at a number of stations in spring and summer and no station showed significant negative trends in annual P. Due to the varied positive and negative trends in annual P and to a lesser extent PET, almost as many stations with negative as positive trends in annual AI were found, indicating that both drying and wetting trends occurred in Iran. Overall, the northern part of the study area showed an increasing trend in annual AI which meant that the region became wetter, while the south showed decreasing trends in AI.

  11. Positive uncertainty: The benefit of the doubt in advertising

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ketelaar, P.E.; Riet, J.P. van 't; Thorbjornsen, H.; Buijzen, M.A.


    Positive uncertainty refers to uncertainty surrounding an anticipated positive outcome. It provides consumers with the opportunity to imagine and speculate on a product's or experience's potentially positive characteristics. Research has shown that when uncertainty is associated with something

  12. Trends in stream nitrogen concentrations for forested reference catchments across the USA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Argerich, A; Greathouse, E; Johnson, S L; Sebestyen, S D; Rhoades, C C; Knoepp, J D; Adams, M B; Likens, G E; Campbell, J L; McDowell, W H; Scatena, F N; Ice, G G


    To examine whether stream nitrogen concentrations in forested reference catchments have changed over time and if patterns were consistent across the USA, we synthesized up to 44 yr of data collected from 22 catchments at seven USDA Forest Service Experimental Forests. Trends in stream nitrogen presented high spatial variability both among catchments at a site and among sites across the USA. We found both increasing and decreasing trends in monthly flow-weighted stream nitrate and ammonium concentrations. At a subset of the catchments, we found that the length and period of analysis influenced whether trends were positive, negative or non-significant. Trends also differed among neighboring catchments within several Experimental Forests, suggesting the importance of catchment-specific factors in determining nutrient exports. Over the longest time periods, trends were more consistent among catchments within sites, although there are fewer long-term records for analysis. These findings highlight the critical value of long-term, uninterrupted stream chemistry monitoring at a network of sites across the USA to elucidate patterns of change in nutrient concentrations at minimally disturbed forested sites. (letter)

  13. Phylogenetic trends in phenolic metabolism of milkweeds (Asclepias): evidence for escalation. (United States)

    Agrawal, Anurag A; Salminen, Juha-Pekka; Fishbein, Mark


    Although plant-defense theory has long predicted patterns of chemical defense across taxa, we know remarkably little about the evolution of defense, especially in the context of directional phylogenetic trends. Here we contrast the production of phenolics and cardenolides in 35 species of milkweeds (Asclepias and Gomphocarpus). Maximum-likelihood analyses of character evolution revealed three major patterns. First, consistent with the defense-escalation hypothesis, the diversification of the milkweeds was associated with a trend for increasing phenolic production; this pattern was reversed (a declining evolutionary trend) for cardenolides, toxins sequestered by specialist herbivores. Second, phylogenetically independent correlations existed among phenolic classes across species. For example, coumaric acid derivatives showed negatively correlated evolution with caffeic acid derivatives, and this was likely driven by the fact that the former are used as precursors for the latter. In contrast, coumaric acid derivatives were positively correlated with flavonoids, consistent with competition for the precursor p-coumaric acid. Finally, of the phenolic classes, only flavonoids showed correlated evolution (positive) with cardenolides, consistent with a physiological and evolutionary link between the two via malonate. Thus, this study presents a rigorous test of the defense-escalation hypothesis and a novel phylogenetic approach to understanding the long-term persistence of physiological constraints on secondary metabolism.

  14. Nationalist movement’s trends in contemporary Nigerian government and politics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shittu, M


    Full Text Available This study seeks to understand the contemporary issues in Nigerian Government and Politics through an assessment of the nationalist movement and its persistent and recurrent trends in the contemporary Nigeria, and how these trends continue to affect the present socio-political issues in the country. This is carried out through mobilization of certain variables of political development theory despite its inability to explain the position of indigenous African people in the alien Western political institutions. Based on this, it is revealed that everything went well until that time the ground was made for power politics in which indigenous African people became players.

  15. Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.


    Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

  16. Energy Trends 2012; Energie Trends 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Dril, T. (ed.); Gerdes, J. (ed.) [ECN Beleidsstudies, Petten (Netherlands); Marbus, S. (ed.) [Energie-Nederland, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boelhouwer, M. (ed.) [Netbeheer Nederland, Arnhem (Netherlands)


    In Energy Trends 2012, all figures and developments in the field of energy in the Netherlands are presented in conjunction. The book provides information on energy use by consumers and businesses, provides insight into the international energy trade, energy production and development of energy networks [Dutch] In Energie Trends 2012 staan alle cijfers en ontwikkelingen op het gebied van energie in Nederland in samenhang gepresenteerd. Het boek biedt informatie over energiegebruik door consumenten en bedrijven, geeft inzage in de internationale energiehandel en energieproductie en biedt inzicht in de ontwikkeling van de energienetten.

  17. Model-Based Attribution of High-Resolution Streamflow Trends in Two Alpine Basins of Western Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Kormann


    Full Text Available Several trend studies have shown that hydrological conditions are changing considerably in the Alpine region. However, the reasons for these changes are only partially understood and trend analyses alone are not able to shed much light. Hydrological modelling is one possible way to identify the trend drivers, i.e., to attribute the detected streamflow trends, given that the model captures all important processes causing the trends. We modelled the hydrological conditions for two alpine catchments in western Austria (a large, mostly lower-altitude catchment with wide valley plains and a nested high-altitude, glaciated headwater catchment with the distributed, physically-oriented WaSiM-ETH model, which includes a dynamical glacier module. The model was calibrated in a transient mode, i.e., not only on several standard goodness measures and glacier extents, but also in such a way that the simulated streamflow trends fit with the observed ones during the investigation period 1980 to 2007. With this approach, it was possible to separate streamflow components, identify the trends of flow components, and study their relation to trends in atmospheric variables. In addition to trends in annual averages, highly resolved trends for each Julian day were derived, since they proved powerful in an earlier, data-based attribution study. We were able to show that annual and highly resolved trends can be modelled sufficiently well. The results provide a holistic, year-round picture of the drivers of alpine streamflow changes: Higher-altitude catchments are strongly affected by earlier firn melt and snowmelt in spring and increased ice melt throughout the ablation season. Changes in lower-altitude areas are mostly caused by earlier and lower snowmelt volumes. All highly resolved trends in streamflow and its components show an explicit similarity to the local temperature trends. Finally, results indicate that evapotranspiration has been increasing in the lower

  18. The International Trend of Peace Education in the 1990s


    Murakami, Toshifumi


    This paper describes the international trend of peace education in the 1990s. It became clear that peace educators in the world have different interests in educational matters by the comparative study of peace education in the 1990s. In the post cold war period, educators in the world did not take much interest in anti-war peace education nor disarmament education. Peace educators have shown more interest in nonviolent conflict resolution, conciliation between multi-ethnic and cultural groups...

  19. Trends and variability in climate parameters of peshawar district

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shah, S.A.A.; Nisa, S.; Khan, A.; Rahman, Z.U.


    Rain fall pattern, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and humidity are the main factors that constitute the climate of an area. In Pakistan, consecutive positive anomalies have been observed in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures and rainfall since mid 1970s. The objective of the current study was to investigate the recent trends and variability of annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall of Peshawar. Annual meteorological parameters for 30-years (1981-2010) of Peshawar observatory have been analysed to determine indications of variations from long-term averages. Different statistical methods were used to analyse the data. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall test was applied to Meteorological data of Peshawar (1981-2010) to study any trend, which were revealed to be in a mixture. The final results show that rainfall is decreasing, minimum temperature, mean temperature and relative humidity are increasing and maximum temperature has no change. Various factors could be responsible for the contemporary trends in climate like rise in number of vehicles and industries from reviewing available literature, keeping in mind the nature of the study. Trends found may have negative implications for agriculture, health and socioeconomic conditions of the region that require the attention from relevant stakeholders. (author)

  20. Positive sliding mode control for blood glucose regulation (United States)

    Menani, Karima; Mohammadridha, Taghreed; Magdelaine, Nicolas; Abdelaziz, Mourad; Moog, Claude H.


    Biological systems involving positive variables as concentrations are some examples of so-called positive systems. This is the case of the glycemia-insulinemia system considered in this paper. To cope with these physical constraints, it is shown that a positive sliding mode control (SMC) can be designed for glycemia regulation. The largest positive invariant set (PIS) is obtained for the insulinemia subsystem in open and closed loop. The existence of a positive SMC for glycemia regulation is shown here for the first time. Necessary conditions to design the sliding surface and the discontinuity gain are derived to guarantee a positive SMC for the insulin dynamics. SMC is designed to be positive everywhere in the largest closed-loop PIS of plasma insulin system. Two-stage SMC is employed; the last stage SMC2 block uses the glycemia error to design the desired insulin trajectory. Then the plasma insulin state is forced to track the reference via SMC1. The resulting desired insulin trajectory is the required virtual control input of the glycemia system to eliminate blood glucose (BG) error. The positive control is tested in silico on type-1 diabetic patients model derived from real-life clinical data.

  1. Worldwide Protein Data Bank validation information: usage and trends. (United States)

    Smart, Oliver S; Horský, Vladimír; Gore, Swanand; Svobodová Vařeková, Radka; Bendová, Veronika; Kleywegt, Gerard J; Velankar, Sameer


    Realising the importance of assessing the quality of the biomolecular structures deposited in the Protein Data Bank (PDB), the Worldwide Protein Data Bank (wwPDB) partners established Validation Task Forces to obtain advice on the methods and standards to be used to validate structures determined by X-ray crystallography, nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy and three-dimensional electron cryo-microscopy. The resulting wwPDB validation pipeline is an integral part of the wwPDB OneDep deposition, biocuration and validation system. The wwPDB Validation Service webserver ( can be used to perform checks prior to deposition. Here, it is shown how validation metrics can be combined to produce an overall score that allows the ranking of macromolecular structures and domains in search results. The ValTrends DB database provides users with a convenient way to access and analyse validation information and other properties of X-ray crystal structures in the PDB, including investigating trends in and correlations between different structure properties and validation metrics.

  2. Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets (United States)

    Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.


    This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

  3. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.


    Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty...... in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS......-NPP) and TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land...

  4. Multi-platform Integrated Positioning and Attitude Determination using GNSS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buist, P.J.


    There is trend in spacecraft engineering toward distributed systems where a number of smaller spacecraft work as a larger satellite. However, in order to make the small satellites work together as a single large platform, the precise relative positions (baseline) and orientations (attitude) of the

  5. Trends in workforce diversity in vascular surgery programs in the United States. (United States)

    Kane, Katherine; Rosero, Eric B; Clagett, G Patrick; Adams-Huet, Beverley; Timaran, Carlos H


    U.S. black and Hispanic populations are growing at a steady pace. In contrast, the medical profession lacks the same minority growth and representation. Women are also under-represented in many surgical disciplines. The purpose of this study was to assess trends in the proportion of women, blacks, and Hispanics admitted to vascular surgery (VS) and related specialties, and to compare them with each other and with a surgical specialty, orthopedic surgery (OS), with a formal diversity initiative. Data on the fellowship pool of VS, interventional radiology (IR), and interventional cardiology (IC), as well as the resident pools of general surgery (GS) and orthopedic surgery (OS), were obtained from U.S. graduate medical education reports for 1999 through 2005. Cochrane-Armitage trend tests were used to assess trends in the proportion of females, blacks, and Hispanics in relation to the total physician workforce for each subspecialty. No significant trends in the proportion of females, blacks, or Hispanics accepted into VS and IC fellowship programs occurred during the study period. In contrast, IR, GS, and OS programs revealed significant trends for increasing proportions of at least one of the underrepresented study groups. In particular, OS, which has implemented a diversity awareness program, showed a positive trend in female and Hispanic trainees (P workforce diversity.

  6. Recent Trends in Global Ocean Chlorophyll (United States)

    Gregg, Watson; Casey, Nancy


    Recent analyses of SeaWiFS data have shown that global ocean chlorophyll has increased more than 5% since 1998. The North Pacific ocean basin has increased nearly 19%. To understand the causes of these trends we have applied the newly developed NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Assimilation Model (OBAM), which is driven in mechanistic fashion by surface winds, sea surface temperature, atmospheric iron deposition, sea ice, and surface irradiance. The mode1 utilizes chlorophyll from SeaWiFS in a daily assimilation. The model has in place many of the climatic variables that can be expected to produce the changes observed in SeaWiFS data. Ths enables us to diagnose the model performance, the assimilation performance, and possible causes for the increase in chlorophyll.

  7. Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang


    Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

  8. PSP: rapid identification of orthologous coding genes under positive selection across multiple closely related prokaryotic genomes. (United States)

    Su, Fei; Ou, Hong-Yu; Tao, Fei; Tang, Hongzhi; Xu, Ping


    With genomic sequences of many closely related bacterial strains made available by deep sequencing, it is now possible to investigate trends in prokaryotic microevolution. Positive selection is a sub-process of microevolution, in which a particular mutation is favored, causing the allele frequency to continuously shift in one direction. Wide scanning of prokaryotic genomes has shown that positive selection at the molecular level is much more frequent than expected. Genes with significant positive selection may play key roles in bacterial adaption to different environmental pressures. However, selection pressure analyses are computationally intensive and awkward to configure. Here we describe an open access web server, which is designated as PSP (Positive Selection analysis for Prokaryotic genomes) for performing evolutionary analysis on orthologous coding genes, specially designed for rapid comparison of dozens of closely related prokaryotic genomes. Remarkably, PSP facilitates functional exploration at the multiple levels by assignments and enrichments of KO, GO or COG terms. To illustrate this user-friendly tool, we analyzed Escherichia coli and Bacillus cereus genomes and found that several genes, which play key roles in human infection and antibiotic resistance, show significant evidence of positive selection. PSP is freely available to all users without any login requirement at: PSP ultimately allows researchers to do genome-scale analysis for evolutionary selection across multiple prokaryotic genomes rapidly and easily, and identify the genes undergoing positive selection, which may play key roles in the interactions of host-pathogen and/or environmental adaptation.

  9. Trends in baseline CD4 cell counts and risk factors for late antiretroviral therapy initiation among HIV-positive patients in Shanghai, a retrospective cross-sectional study. (United States)

    Sun, Jianjun; Liu, Li; Shen, Jiayin; Chen, Panpan; Lu, Hongzhou


    There are few studies focus on the factors underlying the late initiation of ART in China. We analyzed the trends in the median CD4 cell counts among different patient groups over time and the risk factors for the late initiation of ART in Shanghai, China. A retrospective cross-sectional survey was made in the Department of Infectious Disease of Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center which is a designated diagnosis and treatment center for HIV-positive patients in Shanghai during the period of January 1st, 2008--June 30th, 2014. Late ART initiation was defined as a CD4 cell count 30 years) (p HIV exposure who are male, older even heterosexual orientation should be given more opportunities to receive frequently screening, earlier diagnoses and timely treatment.

  10. Comparison of bladder neck position in nulliparous and parous women using MR images in the sitting position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masaki, Kiyoko; Okayama, Hisayo; Tuchikawa, Sachi; Saito, Yoshino; Endo, Yoshihiro; Morikawa, Shigehiro; Ninomiya, Sanae; Saito, Izumi; Hiraiwa, Yasuyuki


    The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of childbirth on pelvic floor relaxation in females using the bladder neck position. The position of bladder neck was examined in 17 nulligravid (19-24 years of age) and 55 parous women (35-54) using MR images in the sitting position. The position of bladder neck from pubococcygeal line was 13.4 mm (mean) in nulligravid women, and 8.5 mm in parous women (p<0.05). The bladder neck position in parous women was significantly lower than that in nulligravid women. Therefore, it was clearly shown that childbirth causes the pelvic floor relaxation. (author)

  11. Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Glenn Verner


    Full Text Available Background: Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health. Design: We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact. Results: The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively, which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014. However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs, remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, predominantly in Europe and North America. Conclusions: There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly

  12. Health in climate change research from 1990 to 2014: positive trend, but still underperforming. (United States)

    Verner, Glenn; Schütte, Stefanie; Knop, Juliane; Sankoh, Osman; Sauerborn, Rainer


    Climate change has been recognized as both one of the biggest threats and the biggest opportunities for global health in the 21st century. This trend review seeks to assess and characterize the amount and type of scientific literature on the link between climate change and human health. We tracked the use of climate-related terms and their co-occurrence with health terms during the 25 years since the first Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, from 1990 to 2014, in two scientific databases and in the IPCC reports. We investigated the trends in the number of publications about health and climate change through time, by nature of the health impact under study, and by geographic area. We compared the scientific production in the health field with that of other sectors on which climate change has an impact. The number of publications was extremely low in both databases from 1990 (325 and 1,004, respectively) until around 2006 (1,332 and 4,319, respectively), which has since then increased exponentially in recent years (6,079 and 17,395, respectively, in 2014). However, the number of climate change papers regarding health is still about half that of other sectors. Certain health impacts, particularly malnutrition and non-communicable diseases (NCDs), remain substantially understudied. Approximately two-thirds of all published studies were carried out in OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), predominantly in Europe and North America. There is a clear need for further research on the links between climate change and health. This pertains particularly to research in and by those countries in which health will be mostly affected and capacity to adapt is least. Specific undertreated topics such as NCDs, malnutrition, and mental health should gain the priority they deserve. Funding agencies are invited to take note of and establish calls for proposals accordingly. Raising the interest in this research area in young

  13. Can neonatal TSH screening reflect trends in population iodine intake?

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Burns, Robert


    The distribution of neonatal blood thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentrations has been used as an index reflecting population dietary iodine intake, with higher concentrations being indicative of lower iodine intake. We examined this distribution in neonates born in Ireland, where the pregnant population has shown a recent decline in urinary iodine (UI) excretion. Our objectives were to determine if any alteration was observed in the percentage of values > 5.0 mIU\\/L and whether a trend in neonatal blood TSH was apparent.

  14. What Buys Happiness? Analyzing Trends in Subjective Well-Being in 15 European Countries, 1973-2002

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjørnskov, Christian; Gupta, Nabanita Datta

    Trends in life satisfaction are examined across 15 European countries employing a modified version of Kendall's Tau. Analyses show that GDP growth relative to growth in the preceding period is a determinant of the trends; the same holds for the growth in life expectancy while the contemporaneous ...... growth in the current account balance exerts a positive influence. Relative unemployment growth becomes significant when interacted with a measure of political ideology. The effects of relative GDP growth vary with median ideology.......Trends in life satisfaction are examined across 15 European countries employing a modified version of Kendall's Tau. Analyses show that GDP growth relative to growth in the preceding period is a determinant of the trends; the same holds for the growth in life expectancy while the contemporaneous...

  15. Labour Markets Trends, Financial Globalization and the current crisis in Developing Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.E. van der Hoeven (Rolph)


    textabstractThe current wave of globalization has profound labour market effects, accentuated, in many cases, by the current financial and economic crisis. This paper reviews general labour market trends and country examples, arguing that the current globalization process makes labour’s position

  16. An evaluation of marine bird population trends following the Exxon Valdez oil spill, Prince William Sound, Alaska

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lance, Brian K.; Irons, David B.; Kendall, Steven J.; McDonald, Lyman L.


    We examined post-spill trends (1989-1998) of marine bird populations in Prince William Sound (PWS) following the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS) to evaluate recovery of injured taxa. Two criteria were employed. First, we examined population trends of injured taxa only in the oiled area of PWS using regression models. Second, we examined population trends of injured taxa in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area using homogeneity of the slopes tests. We considered a population recovering if there was a positive trend using either criteria. We considered a population not recovering if there was no trend using either criteria or a negative trend in the oiled area. A significant negative trend in the oiled area relative to the unoiled area was considered a continuing and increasing effect. Most taxa for which injury was previously demonstrated were not recovering and some taxa showed evidence of increasing effects nine years after the oil spill. Four taxa (loons Gavia spp, Harlequin Duck Histrionicus histrionicus, Bufflehead Bucephala spp, and North-western Crow Corvus caurinus) showed weak to very weak evidence of recovery. None of these taxa showed positive trends in both winter and summer. Nine taxa (grebes Podiceps spp, cormorants Phalacrocorax spp, Black Oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani, Mew Gull Larus canus, Glaucous-winged Gull Larus glaucescens, terns Sterna spp, murres Uria spp, Pigeon Guillemot Cepphus columba, and murrelets Brachyramphus spp) showed no evidence of recovery during summer or winter. Four taxa (scoters Melanitta spp, mergansers Mergus spp, goldeneyes Bucephala spp, and Black-legged Kittiwake Rissa tridactyla) showed evidence of continuing, increasing effects. We showed evidence of slow recovery, lack of recovery, and divergent population trends in many taxa which utilise shoreline and nearshore habitats where oil is likely to persist. Potential lingering spill effects and natural variability appear to be acting in concert in delaying

  17. Cam Mover Alignment System positioning with the Wire Positioning with the Wire Position Sensor Feedback for CLIC

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2077936; Mainaud Durand, Helene; Kostka, Z.S.


    Compact Linear Collider (CLIC) is a study of an electron-positron collider with nominal energy of 3 TeV and luminosity of 2 ∙ 1034 cm-2s-1. The luminosity goal leads to stringent alignment requirements for single quadrupole magnets. Vertical and lateral offset deviations with regards to a given orbit reference in both ends of a quadrupole shall be below 1 μm and quadrupole roll deviation shall be below 100 μrad. Translation in the direction of particle beam is not controlled but mechanically locked. A parallel kinematic platform based on cam movers was chosen as system for detailed studies. Earlier studies have shown that cam movers can reach the CLIC requirements through an iterative process. The paper presents new modular off-the-shelf control electronics and software including three optional positioning algorithms based on iterations as well as a more advanced algorithm which can reach target position in one movement. The advanced algorithm reads wire position sensors (WPS), calculates quadrupole orien...

  18. On the Nature of Trends

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria


    A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory.......A consolidation of the field Trend Studies through mapping, updating and developing trend theory....

  19. Nonparametric trend estimation in the presence of fractal noise: application to fMRI time-series analysis. (United States)

    Afshinpour, Babak; Hossein-Zadeh, Gholam-Ali; Soltanian-Zadeh, Hamid


    Unknown low frequency fluctuations called "trend" are observed in noisy time-series measured for different applications. In some disciplines, they carry primary information while in other fields such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) they carry nuisance effects. In all cases, however, it is necessary to estimate them accurately. In this paper, a method for estimating trend in the presence of fractal noise is proposed and applied to fMRI time-series. To this end, a partly linear model (PLM) is fitted to each time-series. The parametric and nonparametric parts of PLM are considered as contributions of hemodynamic response and trend, respectively. Using the whitening property of wavelet transform, the unknown components of the model are estimated in the wavelet domain. The results of the proposed method are compared to those of other parametric trend-removal approaches such as spline and polynomial models. It is shown that the proposed method improves activation detection and decreases variance of the estimated parameters relative to the other methods.

  20. Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT data for 2010-2015 (United States)

    Maasakkers, J. D.; Jacob, D.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Hersher, M.; Scarpelli, T.; Turner, A. J.; Sheng, J.; Bloom, A. A.; Bowman, K. W.; Parker, R.


    We present a global inversion of methane sources and sinks using GOSAT satellite data from 2010 up to 2015. The inversion optimizes emissions and their trends at 4° × 5° resolution as well as the interannual variability of global OH concentrations. It uses an analytical approach that quantifies the information content from the GOSAT observations and provides full error characterization. We show how the analytical approach can be applied in log-space, ensuring the positivity of the posterior. The inversion starts from state-of-science a priori emission inventories including the Gridded EPA inventory for US anthropogenic emissions, detailed oil and gas emissions for Canada and Mexico, EDGAR v4.3.2 for anthropogenic emissions in other countries, the WetCHARTs product for wetlands, and our own estimates for geological seeps. Inversion results show lower emissions over Western Europe and China than predicted by EDGAR v4.3.2 but higher emissions over Japan. In contrast to previous inversions that used incorrect patterns in a priori emissions, we find that the EPA inventory does not underestimate US anthropogenic emissions. Results for trends show increasing emissions in the tropics combined with decreasing emissions in Europe, and a decline in OH concentrations contributing to the global methane trend.

  1. Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franciane F. Silva


    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. METHODS: This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. RESULTS: Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually, while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females. CONCLUSIONS: The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis.

  2. Analysis of childhood leukemia mortality trends in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. (United States)

    Silva, Franciane F; Zandonade, Eliana; Zouain-Figueiredo, Glaucia P


    Leukemias comprise the most common group of cancers in children and adolescents. Studies conducted in other countries and Brazil have observed a decrease in their mortality.This study aimed to evaluate the trend of mortality from leukemia in children under 19 years of age in Brazil, from 1980 to 2010. This was an ecological study, using retrospective time series data from the Mortality Information System, from 1980 to 2010. Calculations of mortality rates were performed, including gross, gender-specific, and age-based. For trend analysis, linear and semi-log regression models were used. The significance level was 5%. Mortality rates for lymphoid and myeloid leukemias presented a growth trend, with the exception of lymphoid leukemia among children under 4 years of age (percentage decrease: 1.21% annually), while in the sub-group "Other types of leukemia", a downward trend was observed. Overall, mortality from leukemia tended to increase for boys and girls, especially in the age groups 10-14 years (annual percentage increase of 1.23% for males and 1.28% for females) and 15-19 years (annual percentage increase of 1.40% for males and 1.62% for females). The results for leukemia generally corroborate the results of other similar studies. A detailed analysis by subgroup of leukemia, age, and gender revealed no trends shown in other studies, thus indicating special requirements for each variable in the analysis. Copyright © 2014 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  3. Trends in Visual Health Inequalities in Childhood Through Associations of Visual Function With Sex and Social Position Across 3 UK Birth Cohorts. (United States)

    Bountziouka, Vasiliki; Cumberland, Phillippa M; Rahi, Jugnoo S


    Despite the existing country-specific strategies tackling social inequalities in visual health in adults, little is known about trends in visual function in childhood and its association with social position. To investigate the distribution of childhood visual function in the United Kingdom and associations with early-life social position between 1961 and 1986, a period of significant social change. Longitudinal cohort study using harmonized data sets from the British 1946, 1958, and 1970 national birth cohorts. In total, 14 283 cohort members with complete data on visual acuity at age 15 or 16 years, measured in 1961, 1974, and 1986, respectively, for each cohort, and social position were assessed. Using habitual distance visual acuity (with correction if prescribed), participants were assigned to a visual function category ranging from bilateral normal to visual impairment/severe visual impairment/blindness (International Statistical Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification). Distribution of visual function over time and associations with social position (risk ratios [RRs] and 95% confidence intervals) were analyzed. Complete data were available for 3152 participants (aged 15 years; 53% boys [n = 1660]) in the 1946 Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development, 6683 participants (aged 16 years; 51% boys [n = 3420]) in the 1958 National Child Development Study, and 4448 participants (aged 16 years; 48% boys [n = 2156]) in the 1970 British Birth Cohort Study. The proportion of children with bilateral normal vision decreased by 1.3% (95% CI, -5.1% to 2.7%) in 1974 and 1.7% (95% CI, -5.9% to 2.7%) in 1986. The risk of overall impaired vision increased by 1.20 times (95% CI, 1.01-1.43) and the risk of visual impairment/severe visual impairment/blindness by 1.75 times (95% CI, 1.03-2.98) during this period. Girls were consistently at increased risk of all vision impairment categories. Higher social position at

  4. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Magera

    Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

  5. Health social work in Canada: Five trends worth noting. (United States)

    Bryson, Stephanie A; Bosma, Harvey


    Highlighting a strong human rights and social justice orientation underlying health social work in Canada, this paper describes recent contributions of Canadian health social work practitioners and scholars to five areas identified by Auslander (2001) in a delphi study of health social work in its first century. Five current 'trends' are discussed which correspond with Auslander's themes of professional legitimacy and scope, social causation, dissemination of knowledge, interventions, and cultural appropriateness. These trends are: 1) defining the scope of health social work practice; 2) addressing the social determinants of health; 3) promoting evidence-based practice in health social work; 4) delivering client and family-centered care; and 5) implementing cultural safety and trauma-informed practice. Suggestions are made to further strengthen the position of health social work in Canada.

  6. Empathy in intimate relationships : The role of positive illusions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, Pieternel; Barelds, Dick P.H.; Groothof, Hinke A.K.; Van Bruggen, Marnix


    Previous studies have shown empathy to be an important aspect of a high quality intimate relationship. Likewise, positive illusions about a partner's characteristics have been shown to contribute to relationship quality. The present study connects these issues by examining the degree to which

  7. Diesel degradation and biosurfactant production by Gram-positive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The ability of Gram-positive bacteria to degrade diesel increased in a comparable trend as its biosurfactant production increased. The E24 index was highest at 87.6% for isolate D9. Isolates D2, D9 and D10, were identified as Paenibacillus sp. whilst isolate DJLB was found to belong to Stenotrophomonas sp. This study ...

  8. Evolution of Indoor Positioning Technologies: A Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramon F. Brena


    Full Text Available Indoor positioning systems (IPS use sensors and communication technologies to locate objects in indoor environments. IPS are attracting scientific and enterprise interest because there is a big market opportunity for applying these technologies. There are many previous surveys on indoor positioning systems; however, most of them lack a solid classification scheme that would structurally map a wide field such as IPS, or omit several key technologies or have a limited perspective; finally, surveys rapidly become obsolete in an area as dynamic as IPS. The goal of this paper is to provide a technological perspective of indoor positioning systems, comprising a wide range of technologies and approaches. Further, we classify the existing approaches in a structure in order to guide the review and discussion of the different approaches. Finally, we present a comparison of indoor positioning approaches and present the evolution and trends that we foresee.

  9. Trends in exotic-atom research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lambrecht, R.M.; Horvath, D.


    An attempt was made to analyze the trends in the development of exotic-atom research on the basis of a recently compiled bibliography. The analysis of nearly 4000 publications demonstrated that: (1) exotic atoms are nuclear probes used in every field of physics, from the test of quantum electrodynamics (QED) to chemical physics, to materials sciences; (2) the role of nuclear and atomic physics in exotic atom research is decreasing (although it is still significant), while that of materials sciences and chemial physics is exponentially increasing; and (3) prior to 1980 most investigators were mainly interested in atoms with negative muons, while during the last few years the positive muon (μSR) studies have dominated exotic atom research

  10. Detecting Position Using ARKit II: Generating Position-Time Graphs in Realtime and Further Information on Limitations of ARKit (United States)

    Dilek, Ufuk; Erol, Mustafa


    ARKit is a framework which allows developers to create augmented reality apps for the iPhone and iPad. In a previous study, we had shown that it could be used to detect position in educational physics experiments and emphasized that the ability to provide position data in real-time was one of the prominent features of this newly emerging…

  11. Intrapartum Ultrasound Assessment of Fetal Spine Position

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvatore Gizzo


    Full Text Available We investigated the role of foetal spine position in the first and second labour stages to determine the probability of OPP detection at birth and the related obstetrical implications. We conducted an observational-longitudinal cohort study on uncomplicated cephalic single foetus pregnant women at term. We evaluated the accuracy of ultrasound in predicting occiput position at birth, influence of fetal spine in occiput position during labour, labour trend, analgesia request, type of delivery, and indication to CS. The accuracy of the foetal spinal position to predict the occiput position at birth was high at the first labour stage. At the second labour stage, CS (40.3% and operative vaginal deliveries (23.9% occurred more frequently in OPP than in occiput anterior position (7% and 15.2%, resp., especially in cases of the posterior spine. In concordant posterior positions labour length was greater than other ones, and analgesia request rate was 64.1% versus 14.7% for all the others. The assessment of spinal position could be useful in obstetrical management and counselling, both before and during labour. The detection of spinal position, more than OPP, is predictive of successful delivery. In concordant posterior positions, the labour length, analgesia request, operative delivery, and caesarean section rate are higher than in the other combination.

  12. Trends of International Trade in Services: Integration Opportunities for Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tetyana Bodnarchuk


    Full Text Available In the article the main trends and patterns of the development of international trade in services in the period of post-industrial development of the world economy are considered. Ukraine’s competitive positions on international service market are outlined. The main endogenous factors of enhancing the country’s integration to the world trade relations system in service sector are determined.

  13. Mobile positioning and tracking from conventional to cooperative techniques

    CERN Document Server

    Frattasi, Simone


    Current trends in mobile services envisage location-based networking as a major strong stimulator for the development of novel solutions for obtaining positioning information in wireless networks. This book discusses mobile positioning solutions applied on top of current wireless communication networks. Moreover, it introduces advanced and novel topics such as localization in heterogeneous and cooperative scenarios. In this fully updated second edition, the authors summarize recent developments in mobile positioning and tracking. Compared with the previous version, the new edition introduces more advanced topics, providing the bridge between research and industry. It works as an important reference and provides good foundations for new researchers.

  14. Psychosocial Adaptation to Disability Within the Context of Positive Psychology: Findings from the Literature. (United States)

    Martz, Erin; Livneh, Hanoch


    This purpose of this article is to review of the trends of research that examined positive psychology constructs in the context of adapting to chronic illness and disability (CID). This article examines the empirical findings on the relationships between six selected positive psychology-associated constructs (optimism, hope, resilience, benefit-finding, meaning-making, and post-traumatic growth) and adaptation to disability. Six positive psychology constructs were selected to represent the trends found in recent literature published on CID. The process of choosing these six variables included reviewing chapters on positive psychology and CID, reviewing the top rehabilitation journals that typically publish articles on psychosocial adaptation to CID, using search engines to find relevant journal articles published since the year 2000, and selecting the most important constructs based on the authors’ professional judgment. The available evidence supports the unique benefits of these six positive psychology constructs in predicting successful adaptation to a range of disabling conditions. Based on the available findings, the authors offer four suggestions for occupational rehabilitation researchers.

  15. Zika pandemic online trends, incidence and health risk communication: a time trend study. (United States)

    Adebayo, Gbenga; Neumark, Yehuda; Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Abu Ahmad, Wiessam; Levine, Hagai


    We aimed to describe the online search trends of Zika and examine their association with Zika incidence, assess the content of Zika-related press releases issued by leading health authorities and examine the association between online trends and press release timing. Using Google Trends, the 1 May 2015 to 30 May 2016 online trends of Zika and associated search terms were studied globally and in the five countries with the highest numbers of suspected cases. Correlations were then examined between online trends and Zika incidence in these countries. All Zika-related press releases issued by WHO/Pan America Health Organization (PAHO) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the study period were assessed for transparency, uncertainty and audience segmentation. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model was applied to assess self-efficacy, response efficacy, susceptibility and severity. AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average with an eXogenous predictor variable (ARIMAX) (p,d,q) regression modelling was used to quantify the association between online trends and the timing of press releases. Globally, Zika online search trends were low until the beginning of 2016, when interest rose steeply. Strong correlations (r=0.748-0.922; ponline trends and the number of suspected Zika cases in four of the five countries studied. Compared with press releases issued by WHO/PAHO, CDC press releases were significantly more likely to provide contact details and links to other resources, include figures/graphs, be risk-advisory in nature and be more readable and briefer. ARIMAX modelling results indicate that online trends preceded by 1 week press releases by WHO (stationary-R 2 =0.345; ponline trends can aid in pandemic surveillance. Identification of shortcomings in the content and timing of Zika press releases can help guide health communication efforts in the current pandemic and future public health emergencies.

  16. Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid


    In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

  17. Integrated Project Delivery (IPD Research Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kahvandi, Z.


    Full Text Available Integrated Project Delivery (IPD is introduced as a vibrant approach to enhance project implementation, having particular position in recent studies among construction researchers. This study analyzes the research trends on the field of IPD to provide an appropriate vision for future researchers in this specialized field. While so far no comprehensive research has been done in this field, this study provides a comprehensive review of existing studies through in-depth literature review method. This research evaluates studies conducted in the field of IPD, which is a basis for future researchers to improve conditions of IPD implementation in different countries. For that this study Using library studies, the trend of researches conducted on various concepts and domains during various years, has been investigated. Future studies can simply use the outputs of this research to shape their research flow on establishing continuing progress of IPD. The data obtained from descriptive analyses are illustrated quantitatively, followed by comprehensive analyses and discussion of the results. Moreover, this study concluded that during recent years, the trend of studies conducted about IPD has increased, particularly articles examined challenges. In the next step, more studies have been performed in the field of construction. Those articles are preferred that have evaluated principles, challenges, and solutions for resolving barriers. Proper IPD implementation facilitates enhanced share of information and early identification of stakeholders through a proper timing as vital keys to realize objectives of the construction projects, reduce risks, and increase the chance of project success.

  18. Trends in publication on evidence-based antioxidative herbal medicines in management of diabetic nephropathy. (United States)

    Tabatabaei-Malazy, Ozra; Atlasi, Rasha; Larijani, Bagher; Abdollahi, Mohammad


    Recently, popularity and use of herbal medicine in treatment of diabetes have been increased. Since, oxidative stress is known as the main underlying pathophysiology of diabetes and its complications, the purpose of this bibliometric study is to assess the global scientific production analysis and developing its trend in field of antioxidative hypoglycemic herbal medicines and diabetic nephropathy focusing on the scientific publication numbers, citations, geographical distribution in the world and determining the main journal (source) in the field. Our search terms were "diabetes", "renal", "nephropathy", "herb", "Chinese medicine", "traditional medicine", and "antioxidant" from Scopus database until January 2015 and analysis of the distribution of words in the publication year, main journal (source) in the field, geographical distribution, documents' type and language, subject area, and h-index of citations were crried out. The Scopus analysis tools and VOSviewer software version 1.6.3 have been used for analysis. Within 1166 papers were published until year 2015, 78 studies were related to this topic in human. Increasing trend in number of related researches was shown. Fifty eight percent of the published papers were original articles, and the highest number was produced in 2013 with 21 documents. Top subject areas were medicine with global publication share of 71.8 %, and pharmacology was ranked the second (39.7 %). Iran was the first country with global publication. The total citation of the documents were 2518 times and h-index was 24. The highest cited paper was a review article with 336 citation number, and top source was "Journal of Medicinal Plants". Both of top authors and affiliation were from Iran; "Tehran University of Medical Sciences". Also, top author in the co-authorship mapping and clustering assessment was from Iran. Although, we found an ascending trend of scientific publications in field of antioxidative herbal medicine and diabetic

  19. Trends in Education. (United States)

    School Planning & Management, 2002


    Several architects, planners, administrators, and contractors answer questions about trends related to school construction, interior design, business, security, and technology. Trends concern funding issues, specialized designs, planning for safety, technological integration, and equity in services. (EV)

  20. Lung Cancer Trends (United States)

    ... the Biggest Cancer Killer in Both Men and Women” Stay Informed Trends for Other Kinds of Cancer Breast Cervical Colorectal (Colon) Ovarian Prostate Skin Cancer Home Lung Cancer Trends Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend ...

  1. World trends from 2017

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Slobodan


    Full Text Available Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing Anglo-American approach in prognosis, he starts with analysis of the world order changes, of EU trends, Middle, Far East and some trends regarding Africa. Author presents macro trends in North - West Pacific, in Israel-Palestine, in Syria, Iraq, in Europe.

  2. Impact factor trends for general medical journals: non-English-language journals are lagging behind

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther, Siri; Rosenberg, Jacob


    The impact factor (IF) is a common citation metric used for evaluating and comparing scientific journals within a certain field. Previous studies have shown that IFs are increasing. However, rates may depend on journal publication language. The aim of this study was to determine IF values...... and trends for general medical journals, comparing non-English-language with English-language journals....

  3. Assessment of the Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variations on the Trend of River Flows in Urmia Lake Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashkan Farokhnia


    Full Text Available Trend analysis is one of the appropriate methods to assess the hydro-climatic condition of watersheds, which is commonly used for analysis of change pattern in a single variable over time. However, in real cases, many hydrological variables such as river flow are directly affected by climate and environmental factors, which usually go unnoticed in routine analyzes. The aim of the present research is to investigate the trend of river discharge in 25 hydrometric stations in Lake Urmia river basin with and without consideration of temperature and rainfall variability. Briefly, the results showed that there is a decreasing trend in all stations, which is significant in 9 cases. Also, it has been shown that regarding to trends in precipitation and temperature, the number of stations with significant decreasing trend will reduce to 7, which shows low impact of climate factors on the reduction rate of discharge in these stations. Based on the results, it can be concluded that climate variations have direct effect in inferring significant trends in river flow, so that considering these variables in studying of river discharge can lead to different results in the detection of significant trends.

  4. Positive Psychology in Turkey: A Review Study of Postgraduate Theses


    Bülent Baki Telef


    The aim of this study was to examine the trends of postgraduate theses in psychology, psychiatry, and education related to positive psychology in Turkey. The sample consisted of 204 masters’ and doctoral theses written in the fields of psychology, psychiatry, and education in relation to positive psychology between 2005 and 2015 for which access was permitted. The “Thesis Classification Form” prepared by the researchers was used as a data collection tool. The findings are presented with perce...

  5. Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985-2012 (United States)

    Heron, Scott F.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark


    Coral reefs across the world’s oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world’s reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985-2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the ‘winter’ reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985-91 and 2006-12 - a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress.

  6. Impact of ART on the fertility of HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa. (United States)

    Yeatman, Sara; Eaton, Jeffrey W; Beckles, Zosia; Benton, Lorna; Gregson, Simon; Zaba, Basia


    Understanding the fertility of HIV-positive women is critical to estimating HIV epidemic trends from surveillance data and to planning resource needs and coverage of prevention of mother-to-child transmission services in sub-Saharan Africa. In the light of the considerable scale-up in antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage over the last decade, we conducted a systematic review of the impact of ART on the fertility outcomes of HIV-positive women. We searched Medline, Embase, Popline, PubMed and African Index Medicus. Studies were included if they were conducted in sub-Saharan Africa and provided estimates of fertility outcomes (live births or pregnancies) among women on ART relative to a comparison group. Of 2070 unique references, 18 published papers met all eligibility criteria. Comparisons fell into four categories: fertility of HIV-positive women relative to HIV-negative women; fertility of HIV-positive women on ART compared to those not yet on ART; fertility differences by duration on ART; and temporal trends in fertility among HIV-positive women. Evidence indicates that fertility increases after approximately the first year on ART and that while the fertility deficit of HIV-positive women is shrinking, their fertility remains below that of HIV-negative women. These findings, however, were based on limited data mostly during the period 2005-2010 when ART scaled up. Existing data are insufficient to characterise how ART has affected the fertility of HIV-positive women in sub-Saharan Africa. Improving evidence about fertility among women on ART is an urgent priority for planning HIV resource needs and understanding HIV epidemic trends. Alternative data sources such as antenatal clinic data, general population cohorts and population-based surveys can be harnessed to understand the issue. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. Computer architecture technology trends

    CERN Document Server


    Please note this is a Short Discount publication. This year's edition of Computer Architecture Technology Trends analyses the trends which are taking place in the architecture of computing systems today. Due to the sheer number of different applications to which computers are being applied, there seems no end to the different adoptions which proliferate. There are, however, some underlying trends which appear. Decision makers should be aware of these trends when specifying architectures, particularly for future applications. This report is fully revised and updated and provides insight in

  8. Recent trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Canadian children. (United States)

    Rodd, Celia; Sharma, Atul K


    Previous studies have shown an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity among Canadian children from 23.3% to 34.7% during 1978-2004. We examined the most recent trends by applying current definitions of overweight and obesity based on World Health Organization (WHO) body mass index (BMI) thresholds and recently validated norms for waist circumference and waist:height ratio. We examined directly measured height and weight data from the Canadian Community Health Survey (2004-2005) and the Canadian Health Measures Survey (2009-2013). We calculated z scores for BMI, height and weight based on the 2014 WHO growth charts for Canada, including the new extension of weight-for-age beyond 10 years. To calculate z scores for waist circumference and waist:height ratios, we used new charts from the reference population in the US NHANES III (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-1994). Data were available for 14 014 children aged 3-19 years for the period 2004-2013. We observed a decline in the prevalence of overweight or obesity, from 30.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 29.7% to 31.6%) to 27.0% (95% CI 25.3% to 28.7%) (p obesity at about 13%. These trends persisted after we adjusted for age, sex and race/ethnicity. Although they declined, the median z scores for BMI, weight and height were positive and higher than those in the WHO reference population. The z scores for waist circumference and waist:height ratio were negative, which indicated that the Canadian children had less central adiposity than American children in historic or contemporary NHANES cohorts. After a period of dramatic growth, BMI z scores and the prevalence of overweight or obesity among Canadian children decreased from 2004 to 2013, which attests to progress against this important public health challenge. © 2016 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

  9. Longitudinal trends in the treatment of abdominal pain in an academic emergency department. (United States)

    Cinar, Orhan; Jay, Loni; Fosnocht, David; Carey, Jessica; Rogers, LeGrand; Carey, Adrienne; Horne, Benjamin; Madsen, Troy


    Abdominal pain is a top chief complaint of patients presenting to Emergency Departments (ED). Historically, uncertainty surrounded correct management. Evidence has shown adequate analgesia does not obscure the diagnosis, making it the standard of care. We sought to evaluate trends in treatment of abdominal pain in an academic ED during a 10-year period. We prospectively evaluated a convenience sample of patients in an urban academic tertiary care hospital ED from September 2000 through April 2010. Adult patients presenting with a chief complaint of abdominal pain were included in this study. Analgesic administration rates and times, pain scores, and patient satisfaction at discharge were analyzed to evaluate trends by year. There were 2,646 patients presenting with abdominal pain who were enrolled during the study period. Rates of analgesic administration generally increased each year from 39.9% in 2000 to 65.5% in 2010 (p value for trend trend of increase in analgesic administration. In patients presenting to the ED with abdominal pain, analgesia administration increased and time to medication decreased during the 10-year period. Despite overall improvements in satisfaction, significant numbers of patients presenting with abdominal pain still reported moderate to severe pain at discharge. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Nucleosome Positioning and Epigenetics (United States)

    Schwab, David; Bruinsma, Robijn


    The role of chromatin structure in gene regulation has recently taken center stage in the field of epigenetics, phenomena that change the phenotype without changing the DNA sequence. Recent work has also shown that nucleosomes, a complex of DNA wrapped around a histone octamer, experience a sequence dependent energy landscape due to the variation in DNA bend stiffness with sequence composition. In this talk, we consider the role nucleosome positioning might play in the formation of heterochromatin, a compact form of DNA generically responsible for gene silencing. In particular, we discuss how different patterns of nucleosome positions, periodic or random, could either facilitate or suppress heterochromatin stability and formation.

  11. When Teens Have Sex: Issues and Trends. KIDS COUNT Special Report. (United States)

    Annie E. Casey Foundation, Baltimore, MD.

    In the 1990s, teen pregnancy and birth rates in the United States declined significantly. Researchers cite two main factors: fewer teens are having sex, and among those who are, more are using contraception. Despite these positive trends, there are still about one million pregnancies and about half a million births each year to young women aged 15…

  12. Microporous polyethylene separators — today and tomorrow. Separator development trends for modern automotive batteries (United States)

    Böhnstedt, Werner

    During the past decade, the design of modern automotive batteries has undergone a fundamental change. The introduction of microporous polyethylene pocket separators has resulted in an approximately 8% better volume utilization. Besides increasing the energy density, the polyethylene envelope has enalbed an improvement in cold-cranking performance and has raised the production efficiency. A first failure-mode analysis of pocket-separated automotive batteries in Europe with respect to leaf separation is presented. For comparable service life, a shift in failure mode has been found. Although corrosion of the positive electrode still dominates, a significant increase in positive active-material shedding is noted. This is certainly a consequence of the general trend towards lower antimony contents. Shorting through the separator is only found in cases of severe battery mistreatment. This positive, intermediary result is supplemented by an outlook on emerging development trends. Future automotive batteries will experience elevated operating temperatures, higher cycling loads, and maintenance freedom. Battery tests at temperatures up to 75 °C with various alloy combinations show that the hybrid design is best suited to meet the expected requirements. Microporous polyethylene pocket separation is not expected to be a limiting factor; the trend to lower antimony alloy content and increased cycling load will demonstrate the advantage of this separation even more clearly than in the past. Optimization of the already achieved, balanced separator characteristics profile with the reference parameters of electrical performance, water loss, durability and machinability will stimulate further development work.

  13. Culinary Tourism. A New Trend on the Tourism Market


    Oana DURALIA


    Seen as a new form of manifestation of the behavior of the consumer of tourism products and services, culinary tourism has recorded an ascending trending the last years, with a positive forecast for the following years. A possible explanation for this phenomenon is the orientation and encouragement of the tourist services providers to adopt regional development strategies that harness traditional local resources and products in a context where the contemporary consumer no longer only pursues ...

  14. The position of Ghana on the progressive map of positive mental health: A critical perspective. (United States)

    Wilson, Angelina; Somhlaba, Nceba Z


    According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), mental health is a state of well-being and not just the absence of diseases. With this definition, there has been a surge of mental health research, albeit still predominantly in Western countries, which is reflected in contemporary theories on positive mental health that include 'flourishing mental health', 'salutogenesis', and 'fortigenesis'. However, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), mental health research is slowly receiving scholarly attention. The aim of this paper was twofold: Firstly, to highlight progress that had been made in some LMICs, giving consideration to research across different settings and populations as a basis to argue for more research on positive mental health in the Ghanaian context. Secondly, to present a critical perspective on the current mental health research trends in Ghana, thus discussing important recommendations for future research.

  15. Trend report Energy Research Subsidy programme (2005-2008). A report on the most important trends and effects since the start of the Energy Research Subsidy (EOS) programme

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimman, J.; Soeriowardojo, E.; Witte, F.; Nijdam, J.


    In 2005 the Energy Research Subsidy programme (EOS) was launched in the Netherlands. In four years' time about 500 projects were realized thanks to contributions from EOS. This report provides an overview of the main trends and effects of EOS in the period 2005-2008. One of the main conclusions is that a number of technologies have developed from invention level to market-ready level thanks to the EOS programme. The main trends since the start of EOS are: Increasing confidence of investors in EOS spearheads; increasing activity in EOS spearheads; Spearheads shifting to investment and exploitation schemes; EOS contributes to a solid patent position of Dutch parties; EOS contributes to European research. [nl

  16. Positioning performance analysis of the time sum of arrival algorithm with error features (United States)

    Gong, Feng-xun; Ma, Yan-qiu


    The theoretical positioning accuracy of multilateration (MLAT) with the time difference of arrival (TDOA) algorithm is very high. However, there are some problems in practical applications. Here we analyze the location performance of the time sum of arrival (TSOA) algorithm from the root mean square error ( RMSE) and geometric dilution of precision (GDOP) in additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) environment. The TSOA localization model is constructed. Using it, the distribution of location ambiguity region is presented with 4-base stations. And then, the location performance analysis is started from the 4-base stations with calculating the RMSE and GDOP variation. Subsequently, when the location parameters are changed in number of base stations, base station layout and so on, the performance changing patterns of the TSOA location algorithm are shown. So, the TSOA location characteristics and performance are revealed. From the RMSE and GDOP state changing trend, the anti-noise performance and robustness of the TSOA localization algorithm are proved. The TSOA anti-noise performance will be used for reducing the blind-zone and the false location rate of MLAT systems.

  17. Accurate ocean bottom seismometer positioning method inspired by multilateration technique (United States)

    Benazzouz, Omar; Pinheiro, Luis M.; Matias, Luis M. A.; Afilhado, Alexandra; Herold, Daniel; Haines, Seth S.


    The positioning of ocean bottom seismometers (OBS) is a key step in the processing flow of OBS data, especially in the case of self popup types of OBS instruments. The use of first arrivals from airgun shots, rather than relying on the acoustic transponders mounted in the OBS, is becoming a trend and generally leads to more accurate positioning due to the statistics from a large number of shots. In this paper, a linearization of the OBS positioning problem via the multilateration technique is discussed. The discussed linear solution solves jointly for the average water layer velocity and the OBS position using only shot locations and first arrival times as input data.

  18. Trends of abortion complications in a transition of abortion law revisions in Ethiopia. (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Yirgu; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan


    Evidence from developed countries has shown that abortion-related mortality and morbidity has decreased with the liberalization of the abortion law. This study aimed to assess the trend of hospital-based abortion complications during the transition of legalization in Ethiopia in May 2005. Medical records of women with abortion complications from 2003 to 2007 were reviewed (n = 773). Abortion and its complications with regard to legalization were described by rates and ratios, and predictors of fatal outcomes were analyzed by logistic regression. The overall and abortion-related maternal mortality ratios (AMMRs) showed a non-statistically significant downward trend over the 5-year period. However, the case fatality rate of abortion increased from 1.1% in 2003 to 3.6% in 2007. Late gestational age, history of interference and presenting after new abortion legislation passed have been found to be significant predictors of mortality. Decreased trends of abortion ratio and the AMMR were identified, but the severity of abortion complications and the case fatality rate increased during the transition of legal revision.

  19. New Schemes for Positive Real Truncation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kari Unneland


    Full Text Available Model reduction, based on balanced truncation, of stable and of positive real systems are considered. An overview over some of the already existing techniques are given: Lyapunov balancing and stochastic balancing, which includes Riccati balancing. A novel scheme for positive real balanced truncation is then proposed, which is a combination of the already existing Lyapunov balancing and Riccati balancing. Using Riccati balancing, the solution of two Riccati equations are needed to obtain positive real reduced order systems. For the suggested method, only one Lyapunov equation and one Riccati equation are solved in order to obtain positive real reduced order systems, which is less computationally demanding. Further it is shown, that in order to get positive real reduced order systems, only one Riccati equation needs to be solved. Finally, this is used to obtain positive real frequency weighted balanced truncation.

  20. Assessing future vegetation trends and restoration prospects in the Karst regions of Southwest China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Xiaowei; Wang, Kelin; Brandt, Martin Stefan


    for conservation management by monitoring vegetation dynamics, projecting the persistence of vegetation trends and identifying areas of interest for upcoming restoration measures. In this study, we use MODIS satellite time series (2001-2013) and the Hurst exponent to classify the study area (Guizhou and Guangxi......To alleviate the severe rocky desertification and improve the ecological conditions in Southwest China, the national and local Chinese governments have implemented a series of Ecological Restoration Projects since the late 1990s. In this context, remote sensing can be a valuable tool...... on the restoration prospects and associated uncertainty of different terrain classes found in the study area. The results show that 69% of the observed trends are persistent beyond 2013, with 57% being stable, 10% positive, 5% anti-persistent positive, 3% negative, 1% anti-persistent negative and 24% uncertain. Most...

  1. Progranulin as a prognostic biomarker for breast cancer recurrence in patients who had hormone receptor-positive tumors: a cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Hoe Koo

    Full Text Available Progranulin (PGRN is considered to play an important role in breast cancer tumorigenesis and in inhibiting tamoxifen-induced apoptosis. We aimed to determine whether PGRN levels are associated with breast cancer recurrence after curative surgery.We evaluated the associations between preoperative serum PGRN levels and breast cancer recurrence in a cohort of 697 newly diagnosed breast cancer patients who underwent curative surgery between April 2001 and December 2004. The mean age ± standard deviation (SD was 46 ± 9.8 years, and all patients with hormone receptor (HR-positive tumors received adjuvant tamoxifen therapy. At a median follow-up of 62.2 months (range, 2.9-98.2, 89 patients (12.8% had experienced a recurrence and 51 patients (7.3% had died. In the HR-positive group, serum PGRN levels were associated with recurrence according to the log-rank test for trend (p for trend = 0.049. There was no association between PGRN levels and recurrence in the HR-negative group (p for trend = 0.658. Adjusted hazard ratios, including possible confounders, revealed a linear relationship between serum PGRN levels and recurrence in the HR-positive group (p for trend = 0.049, and this association was further strengthened after excluding patients who had no lymph node metastasis (p for trend = 0.038.Serum PGRN levels were clinically significant for predicting recurrence in patients with HR-positive breast cancer during adjuvant tamoxifen therapy.

  2. Observed precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment from 1951 to 2002

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUBuda; JIANGTong; SHIYafeng; StefanBECKER; MracoGEMMER


    The monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment have been detected through analysis of 51 meteorological stations' data between 1950-2002 provided by National Meteorological Administration. Results reveal that: 1) Summer precipitation in the Yangtze river catchment shows significant increasing tendency. The Poyanghu lake basin, Dongtinghu lake basin and Taihu lake basin in the middle and lower reaches are the places showing significant positive trends. Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches experienced an abrupt change in the year 1992; 2) The monthly precipitation in months just adjoining to summer shows decreasing tendency in the Yangtze river catchment. The upper and middle reaches in Jialingjiang river basin and Hanshui river basin are the places showing significant negative trends; 3) Extreme precipitation events show an increasing tendency in most places, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river catchment.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hamankova


    Full Text Available The article describes the main trends of formation and development of insurance against accidents. Defined position of the social insurance against accidents and professional diseases in the social protection system in Ukraine. Investigated the essence and content of social insurance against accidents.

  4. The theory behind the age-related positivity effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew E Reed


    Full Text Available The positivity effect refers to an age-related trend that favors positive over negative stimuli in cognitive processing. Relative to their younger counterparts, older people attend to and remember more positive than negative information. Since the effect was initially identified and the conceptual basis articulated (Mather & Carstensen, 2005 scores of independent replications and related findings have appeared in the literature. Over the same period, a number of investigations have failed to observe age differences in the cognitive processing of emotional material. When findings are considered in theoretical context, a reliable pattern of evidence emerges that helps to refine conceptual tenets. In this article we articulate the operational definition and theoretical foundations of the positivity effect and review the empirical evidence based on studies of visual attention, memory, decision-making, and neural activation. We conclude with a discussion of future research directions with emphasis on the conditions where a focus on positive information may benefit and/or impair cognitive performance in older people.

  5. Characterizing uncertainties in recent trends of global terrestrial net primary production through ensemble modeling (United States)

    Wang, W.; Hashimoto, H.; Ganguly, S.; Votava, P.; Nemani, R. R.; Myneni, R. B.


    Large uncertainties exist in our understanding of the trends and variability in global net primary production (NPP) and its controls. This study attempts to address this question through a multi-model ensemble experiment. In particular, we drive ecosystem models including CASA, LPJ, Biome-BGC, TOPS-BGC, and BEAMS with a long-term climate dataset (i.e., CRU-NCEP) to estimate global NPP from 1901 to 2009 at a spatial resolution of 0.5 x 0.5 degree. We calculate the trends of simulated NPP during different time periods and test their sensitivities to climate variables of solar radiation, air temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and atmospheric CO2 levels. The results indicate a large diversity among the simulated NPP trends over the past 50 years, ranging from nearly no trend to an increasing trend of ~0.1 PgC/yr. Spatial patterns of the NPP generally show positive trends in boreal forests, induced mainly by increasing temperatures in these regions; they also show negative trends in the tropics, although the spatial patterns are more diverse. These diverse trends result from different climatic sensitivities of NPP among the tested models. Depending the ecological processes (e.g., photosynthesis or respiration) a model emphasizes, it can be more or less responsive to changes in solar radiation, temperatures, water, or atmospheric CO2 levels. Overall, these results highlight the limit of current ecosystem models in simulating NPP, which cannot be easily observed. They suggest that the traditional single-model approach is not ideal for characterizing trends and variability in global carbon cycling.

  6. Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H


    This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O{sub X} (sum O{sub 3} of and NO{sub 2}) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative

  7. Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H.


    This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O X (sum O 3 of and NO 2 ) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative trends of ozone

  8. Tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing from 2002–2010: ozonesonde measurements and modeling analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wang


    Full Text Available Using a combination of ozonesonde data and numerical simulations of the Chemical Lagrangian Model of the Stratosphere (CLaMS, the trend of tropospheric ozone (O3 during 2002–2010 over Beijing was investigated. Tropospheric ozone over Beijing shows a winter minimum and a broad summer maximum with a clear positive trend in the maximum summer ozone concentration over the last decade. The observed significant trend of tropospheric column ozone is mainly caused by photochemical production (3.1% yr−1 for a mean level of 52 DU. This trend is close to the significant trend of partial column ozone in the lower troposphere (0–3 km resulting from the enhanced photochemical production during summer (3.0% yr−1 for a mean level of 23 DU. Analysis of the CLaMS simulation shows that transport rather than chemistry drives most of the seasonality of tropospheric ozone. However, dynamical processes alone cannot explain the trend of tropospheric ozone in the observational data. Clearly enhanced ozone values and a negative vertical ozone gradient in the lower troposphere in the observational data emphasize the importance of photochemistry within the troposphere during spring and summer, and suggest that the photochemistry within the troposphere significantly contributes to the tropospheric ozone trend over Beijing during the last decade.

  9. Dietary trends in the Middle East and North Africa: an ecological study (1961 to 2007). (United States)

    Golzarand, Mahdieh; Mirmiran, Parvin; Jessri, Mahsa; Toolabi, Karamollah; Mojarrad, Mehdi; Azizi, Fereidoun


    Middle Eastern and North African countries are undergoing nutrition transition, a transition which is associated with an increased burden of non-communicable diseases. This necessitates the evaluation of dietary patterns in these regions. The present study aimed to assess changes in dietary patterns in Middle Eastern and North African countries between 1961 and 2007. Availability of energy and fifteen main food items during 1961-2007 was examined using FAO food balance sheets from the FAOSTAT database. Fifteen countries including nine in the Middle East and six in North Africa were selected and the average availability of total energy and different food items in these regions were compared. Over the 47 years studied, energy and food availability (apart from animal fats and alcoholic beverages) has increased in the Middle East and North Africa. In both regions the proportion of energy derived from meat and vegetable oils has increased significantly while that from cereals decreased significantly. In addition, the proportion of energy from milk and dairy products and vegetables has shown an ascending trend in North Africa while the proportion of energy from fruits has shown a descending trend in the Middle East. The study results reveal an unfavourable trend towards a Westernized diet in the Middle East and, to a certain extent, in North Africa. Tailored nutritional education encouraging healthy eating for prevention of the burden of chronic diseases in these countries seems essential.

  10. Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water in the Northeast United States (United States)

    Moran, M.J.


    Public water systems in Connecticut, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, and Rhode Island sampled treated drinking water from 1993-2006 and analyzed the samples for MTBE. The US Geological Survey examined trends in the occurrence of MTBE in drinking water derived from ground water in these States for two near-decadal time steps; 1993-1999 and 2000-2006. MTBE was detected in 14% of drinking water samples collected in all States from 1993-1999 and in 19% of drinking water samples collected from the same systems from 2000-2006 and this difference was statistically significant. Trends in the occurrence of MTBE in each State by individual year indicated significant positive trends in Maryland and New Hampshire. Significant, increasing trends in MTBE concentrations were observed in Maryland and Rhode Island by individual year. This is an abstract of a paper presented at the 2007 Petroleum Hydrocarbons and Organic Chemicals in Ground Water: Prevention, Assessment and Remediation Conference (Houston, TX 11/5-6/2007).

  11. A new trend in photomultiplier techniques and its implications in future collider experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuroda, K.


    A recent trend in photomultiplier techniques, characterized by immunity to magnetic fields and position sensitivity of modern photomultiplier tubes, would potentially have great importance in future collider experiments. This article presents a survey on the actual status of the art, and some implications of such new techniques in future high-energy experiments. As an example of applications, our recent project of constructing an ultrafast scintillating-fibre detector on the basis of upgraded position-sensitive PMTs is outlined. (orig.)

  12. Development trends of the venture capital financing institution: spaciotemporal profile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. I. Volkova


    Full Text Available The article describes the results of the research of development and performance features of the venture capital financing institution in leading countries as well as in Russia and in its regions. A number of main trends in venture financing in accordance with the level of innovation process` development abroad and in our country are emphasized, first of all by stages of support of scientific and technological developments and projects. Positive trends and contradictions in development of venture capital financing institution in Russia and its regions are revealed. Main directions of activation of venture financing process are systematized in accordance with the requirements of the Concept of long-term social-economic development of the Russian Federation till 2020 and the Strategy of social-economic development of the Sverdlovsk region until 2020.

  13. Ad-Coop Positioning System (ACPS)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frattasi, Simone; Monti, Marco


    In this paper, we propose an innovative solution for positioning determination in 4G wireless networks by introducing the Ad-Coop Positioning System (ACPS). The ACPS is supported by a hybrid cellular ad-hoc architecture, where the cellular network has a centralized control over the ad-hoc connect......In this paper, we propose an innovative solution for positioning determination in 4G wireless networks by introducing the Ad-Coop Positioning System (ACPS). The ACPS is supported by a hybrid cellular ad-hoc architecture, where the cellular network has a centralized control over the ad...... method for the ACPS, which appropriately combines and weights the long- and short-range location information in a non-linear least square (NLLS) minimization procedure. The numerical results shown in the paper demonstrate that the ACPS enhances the location estimation accuracy with respect...

  14. Generalized trends in the formation energies of perovskite oxides. (United States)

    Zeng, ZhenHua; Calle-Vallejo, Federico; Mogensen, Mogens B; Rossmeisl, Jan


    Generalized trends in the formation energies of several families of perovskite oxides (ABO3) and plausible explanations to their existence are provided in this study through a combination of DFT calculations, solid-state physics analyses and simple physical/chemical descriptors. The studied elements at the A site of perovskites comprise rare-earth, alkaline-earth and alkaline metals, whereas 3d and 5d metals were studied at the B site. We also include ReO3-type compounds, which have the same crystal structure of cubic ABO3 perovskites except without A-site elements. From the observations we extract the following four conclusions for the perovskites studied in the present paper: for a given cation at the B site, (I) perovskites with cations of identical oxidation state at the A site possess close formation energies; and (II) perovskites with cations of different oxidation states at the A site usually have quite different but ordered formation energies. On the other hand, for a given A-site cation, (III) the formation energies of perovskites vary linearly with respect to the atomic number of the elements at the B site within the same period of the periodic table, and the slopes depend systematically on the oxidation state of the A-site cation; and (IV) the trends in formation energies of perovskites with elements from different periods at the B site depend on the oxidation state of A-site cations. Since the energetics of perovskites is shown to be the superposition of the individual contributions of their constituent oxides, the trends can be rationalized in terms of A-O and B-O interactions in the ionic crystal. These findings reveal the existence of general systematic trends in the formation energies of perovskites and provide further insight into the role of ion-ion interactions in the properties of ternary compounds.

  15. Prevalence and trends of cellulosics in pharmaceutical dosage forms. (United States)

    Mastropietro, David J; Omidian, Hossein


    Many studies have shown that cellulose derivatives (cellulosics) can provide various benefits when used in virtually all types of dosage forms. Nevertheless, the popularity of their use in approved drug products is rather unknown. This research reports the current prevalence and trends of use for 15 common cellulosics in prescription drug products. The cellulosics were powdered and microcrystalline cellulose (MCC), ethyl cellulose, hydroxypropyl cellulose (HPC), hydroxyethyl cellulose (HEC), hypromellose (HPMC), HPMC phthalate, HPMC acetate succinate, cellulose acetate (CA), CA phthalate, sodium (Na) and calcium (Ca) carboxymethylcellulose (CMC), croscarmellose sodium (XCMCNa), methyl cellulose, and low substituted HPC. The number of brand drug products utilizing each cellulosics was determined using the online drug index Rxlist. A total of 607 brand products were identified having one or more of the cellulosics as an active or inactive ingredient. An array of various dosage forms was identified and revealed HPMC and MCC to be the most utilized cellulosics in all products followed by XCMCNa and HPC. Many products contained two or more cellulosics in the formulation (42% containing two, 23% containing three, and 4% containing 4-5). The largest combination occurrence was HPMC with MCC. The use of certain cellulosics within different dosage form types was found to contain specific trends. All injectables utilized only CMCNa, and the same with all ophthalmic solutions utilizing HPMC, and otic suspensions utilizing HEC. Popularity and trends regarding cellulosics use may occur based on many factors including functionality, safety, availability, stability, and ease of manufacturing.

  16. The effects of intraoperative positioning on patients undergoing early definitive care for femoral shaft fractures. (United States)

    Apostle, K L; Lefaivre, K A; Guy, P; Broekhuyse, H M; Blachut, P A; O'Brien, P J; Meek, R N


    To determine if there is a difference in morbidity and mortality in orthopaedic trauma patients with femoral shaft fractures undergoing early definitive care with intramedullary (IM) nails in the supine versus the lateral position. Retrospective cohort study, single centered. One level 1 trauma center. Nine hundred eighty-eight patients representing 1027 femoral shaft fractures treated with IM nails were identified through a prospectively gathered database between 1987 and 2006. Antegrade IM nail insertion with reaming of the femoral canal in either the supine or lateral position. Mortality was the primary outcome. Admission to intensive care unit (ICU) was the secondary outcome measure and a surrogate measure of morbidity. Literature review was performed to identify factors shown to contribute to morbidity and mortality in orthopaedic trauma patients. Intraoperative position in either the supine or lateral position was added to this list. Logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the magnitude and effect of the independent variables on each of the study end points. To determine if a more significant trend toward less favorable outcomes was observed with increasing severity of injury, particularly injuries of the chest and thorax, subgroup analysis was performed for all those with a femur fracture and an Injury Severity Score > or =18 and all those with a femur fracture and an Abbreviated Injury Score chest > or =3. Intraoperative position in either the supine or lateral position was not a significant predictor of mortality or ICU admission for the original cohort or the subgroup of Injury Severity Score > or =18. However, for the subgroup of Abbreviated Injury Score chest > or =3, intraoperative positioning in the lateral position had a statistically significant protective effect against ICU admission (P = 0.044). For polytrauma patients with femoral shaft fractures, surgical stabilization using IM nails inserted with reaming of the femoral canal in

  17. Oxide materials as positive electrodes of lithium-ion batteries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makhonina, Elena V; Pervov, Vladislav S; Dubasova, Valeriya S


    The published data on oxide materials as positive electrodes for lithium-ion batteries are described systematically. The mechanisms of structural changes in cathode materials occurring during the operation of lithium-ion batteries and the problems concerned with their selection are discussed. Modern trends in optimising cathode materials and lithium-ion batteries on the whole are considered.

  18. An analysis of trends and perspectives of U.S.'s nuclear policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, B. W.; Lee, K. S.; Oh, K. B.


    This paper analyzes the trends and perspectives of U.S.'s nuclear polices. With the changing of the administration of U.S., certain changes in nuclear policies are foreseen under Bush's new administration. Considering the traditional basis of republicans, somewhat positive impacts on nuclear R and D and nuclear power program are expected

  19. Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Incidence in Panama, Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis. (United States)

    Politis, Michael; Higuera, Gladys; Chang, Lissette Raquel; Gomez, Beatriz; Bares, Juan; Motta, Jorge


    Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight

  20. Women's leadership in neuropsychology: historical perspectives, present trends, and future directions. (United States)

    Sachs, Bonnie C; Benitez, Andreana; Buelow, Melissa T; Gooding, Amanda; Schaefer, Lynn A; Sim, Anita H; Tussey, Chriscelyn M; Shear, Paula K


    Although psychology has become a female-dominated field, this pattern of gender representation has not held true within the specialty of neuropsychology. In recent years more women have been pursuing careers in neuropsychology, and while the balance of male and female neuropsychologists as a whole has shifted, it is unclear whether the gender composition of leadership has also changed. Our goal was to survey various neuropsychological organizations, training programs, editorial boards, and organizations granting board certification to determine the current gender composition of leadership positions within neuropsychology. A literature review was conducted to examine past trends of gender composition in neuropsychology, psychology, medicine, and academia. Data on current gender compositions of the field were culled from publicly available websites and through personal communication with representatives from major psychological and neuropsychological organizations. We found that the overall composition of the field has changed over time, but notable gender disparities in leadership positions remain. Women still comprise the minority of leadership positions within most neuropsychological organizations, editorial boards for neuropsychology journals, and fellow positions in major neuropsychological organizations. More equitable representation has been achieved in the directorships of training programs and ABPP/ABCN board certification. We review the historical trends in gender discrepancies in leadership in neuropsychology and discuss these within the broader arenas of academia, research, and medicine. We conclude with a summary addressing potential causes for these discrepancies, including work-life balance issues, discrimination, institutional bias, and various other factors. We also provide pragmatic suggestions to help address these continued disparities.

  1. Prevailing impact trends in patenting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elsmore, Matthew J.


      Patents are at the heart of science and public policy. Getting European patent policy right is a daunting task and involves listening to numerous voices. Part of this process must entail a full understanding of emerging trends that challenge the present system. The challenges are fluid and vary...... from sector to sector. This paper identifies and evaluates key recent developments in patenting which impact upon the European patent system, whichever way it looks. An analysis of these and the underlying causes means we are in a much better position to build an effective policy rearguard.    ...

  2. Trends in AIDS incidence and AIDS-related mortality in British Columbia between 1981 and 2013 (United States)

    Lima, Viviane D.; Lourenço, Lillian; Yip, Benita; Hogg, Robert S.; Phillips, Peter; Montaner, Julio S.G.


    Background Appropriate use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) can markedly decrease the risk of progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and of premature mortality. We aimed to characterize the trends between 1981 and 2013 in AIDS-defining illnesses (ADIs) and in the number AIDS-related deaths in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Methods We included data of 3550 HIV-positive individuals, aged 19 years or older, from different administrative databases in BC. We estimated the relative risk of developing an ADI over time using a Negative Binomial model, and we investigated trends in the percentage of all deaths associated with AIDS using generalized additive models. Findings The number of ADIs has decreased dramatically to its lowest level in 2013. The peak of the AIDS epidemic in BC happened in 1994 with 696 ADIs being reported (rate 42 ADIs per 100 person-years). Since 1997, the number of ADIs decreased from 253 (rate 7 per 100 person-years) to 84 cases in 2013 (rate 1 per 100 person-years) (p-value equals to zero for the trend in the number of ADIs). We have also shown that out of 22 ADIs considered, only PCP maintained its prominent ranking (albeit with much reduced overall prevalence). Finally, we observed that over time very few deaths were related to AIDS-related causes, especially in the most recent years. Interpretation We showed that the number of new ADIs and AIDS-related mortality have been decreasing rapidly over time in BC. These results provide further evidence that integrated comprehensive free programs that facilitate testing, and deliver treatment and care to this population can be effective in markedly decreasing AIDS-related morbidity and mortality, thus suggesting that controlling and eventually ending AIDS is possible. Funding The British Columbia Ministry of Health, the US National Institutes of Health, the US National Institute on Drug Abuse, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and the Michael Institute for

  3. Global health care leadership development: trends to consider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MacPhee M


    Full Text Available Maura MacPhee,1 Lilu Chang,2 Diana Lee,3 Wilza Spiri4 1University of British Columbia School of Nursing, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 2Center for Advancement of Nursing Education, Koo Foundation, Sun Yat-Sen Cancer Center, Taipei, Taiwan; 3Nethersole School of Nursing, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, 4São Paulo State University, Botucatu, São Paulo, Brazil Abstract: This paper provides an overview of trends associated with global health care leadership development. Accompanying these trends are propositions based on current available evidence. These testable propositions should be considered when designing, implementing, and evaluating global health care leadership development models and programs. One particular leadership development model, a multilevel identity model, is presented as a potential model to use for leadership development. Other, complementary approaches, such as positive psychology and empowerment strategies, are discussed in relation to leadership identity formation. Specific issues related to global leadership are reviewed, including cultural intelligence and global mindset. An example is given of a nurse leadership development model that has been empirically tested in Canada. Through formal practice–academic–community collaborations, this model has been locally adapted and is being used for nurse leader training in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Brazil. Collaborative work is under way to adapt the model for interprofessional health care leadership development. Keywords: health care leadership, development models, global trends, collective

  4. High-latitude tree growth and satellite vegetation indices: Correlations and trends in Russia and Canada (1982-2008) (United States)

    Berner, Logan T.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Bunn, Andrew G.; Lloyd, Andrea H.; Goetz, Scott J.


    Vegetation in northern high latitudes affects regional and global climate through energy partitioning and carbon storage. Spaceborne observations of vegetation, largely based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggest decreased productivity during recent decades in many regions of the Eurasian and North American boreal forests. To improve interpretation of NDVI trends over forest regions, we examined the relationship between NDVI from the advanced very high resolution radiometers and tree ring width measurements, a proxy of tree productivity. We collected tree core samples from spruce, pine, and larch at 22 sites in northeast Russia and northwest Canada. Annual growth rings were measured and used to generate site-level ring width index (RWI) chronologies. Correlation analysis was used to assess the association between RWI and summer NDVI from 1982 to 2008, while linear regression was used to examine trends in both measurements. The correlation between NDVI and RWI was highly variable across sites, though consistently positive (r = 0.43, SD = 0.19, n = 27). We observed significant temporal autocorrelation in both NDVI and RWI measurements at sites with evergreen conifers (spruce and pine), though weak autocorrelation at sites with deciduous conifers (larch). No sites exhibited a positive trend in both NDVI and RWI, although five sites showed negative trends in both measurements. While there are technological and physiological limitations to this approach, these findings demonstrate a positive association between NDVI and tree ring measurements, as well as the importance of considering lagged effects when modeling vegetation productivity using satellite data.

  5. Total ozone trends from 1979 to 2016 derived from five merged observational datasets - the emergence into ozone recovery (United States)

    Weber, Mark; Coldewey-Egbers, Melanie; Fioletov, Vitali E.; Frith, Stacey M.; Wild, Jeannette D.; Burrows, John P.; Long, Craig S.; Loyola, Diego


    We report on updated trends using different merged datasets from satellite and ground-based observations for the period from 1979 to 2016. Trends were determined by applying a multiple linear regression (MLR) to annual mean zonal mean data. Merged datasets used here include NASA MOD v8.6 and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) merge v8.6, both based on data from the series of Solar Backscatter UltraViolet (SBUV) and SBUV-2 satellite instruments (1978-present) as well as the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME)-type Total Ozone (GTO) and GOME-SCIAMACHY-GOME-2 (GSG) merged datasets (1995-present), mainly comprising satellite data from GOME, the Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography (SCIAMACHY), and GOME-2A. The fifth dataset consists of the monthly mean zonal mean data from ground-based measurements collected at World Ozone and UV Data Center (WOUDC). The addition of four more years of data since the last World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ozone assessment (2013-2016) shows that for most datasets and regions the trends since the stratospheric halogen reached its maximum (˜ 1996 globally and ˜ 2000 in polar regions) are mostly not significantly different from zero. However, for some latitudes, in particular the Southern Hemisphere extratropics and Northern Hemisphere subtropics, several datasets show small positive trends of slightly below +1 % decade-1 that are barely statistically significant at the 2σ uncertainty level. In the tropics, only two datasets show significant trends of +0.5 to +0.8 % decade-1, while the others show near-zero trends. Positive trends since 2000 have been observed over Antarctica in September, but near-zero trends are found in October as well as in March over the Arctic. Uncertainties due to possible drifts between the datasets, from the merging procedure used to combine satellite datasets and related to the low sampling of ground-based data, are not accounted for in the trend

  6. Power and sample size evaluation for the Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel mean score (Wilcoxon rank sum) test and the Cochran-Armitage test for trend. (United States)

    Lachin, John M


    The power of a chi-square test, and thus the required sample size, are a function of the noncentrality parameter that can be obtained as the limiting expectation of the test statistic under an alternative hypothesis specification. Herein, we apply this principle to derive simple expressions for two tests that are commonly applied to discrete ordinal data. The Wilcoxon rank sum test for the equality of distributions in two groups is algebraically equivalent to the Mann-Whitney test. The Kruskal-Wallis test applies to multiple groups. These tests are equivalent to a Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel mean score test using rank scores for a set of C-discrete categories. Although various authors have assessed the power function of the Wilcoxon and Mann-Whitney tests, herein it is shown that the power of these tests with discrete observations, that is, with tied ranks, is readily provided by the power function of the corresponding Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel mean scores test for two and R > 2 groups. These expressions yield results virtually identical to those derived previously for rank scores and also apply to other score functions. The Cochran-Armitage test for trend assesses whether there is an monotonically increasing or decreasing trend in the proportions with a positive outcome or response over the C-ordered categories of an ordinal independent variable, for example, dose. Herein, it is shown that the power of the test is a function of the slope of the response probabilities over the ordinal scores assigned to the groups that yields simple expressions for the power of the test. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Trends in continental temperature and humidity directly linked to ocean warming. (United States)

    Byrne, Michael P; O'Gorman, Paul A


    In recent decades, the land surface has warmed substantially more than the ocean surface, and relative humidity has fallen over land. Amplified warming and declining relative humidity over land are also dominant features of future climate projections, with implications for climate-change impacts. An emerging body of research has shown how constraints from atmospheric dynamics and moisture budgets are important for projected future land-ocean contrasts, but these ideas have not been used to investigate temperature and humidity records over recent decades. Here we show how both the temperature and humidity changes observed over land between 1979 and 2016 are linked to warming over neighboring oceans. A simple analytical theory, based on atmospheric dynamics and moisture transport, predicts equal changes in moist static energy over land and ocean and equal fractional changes in specific humidity over land and ocean. The theory is shown to be consistent with the observed trends in land temperature and humidity given the warming over ocean. Amplified land warming is needed for the increase in moist static energy over drier land to match that over ocean, and land relative humidity decreases because land specific humidity is linked via moisture transport to the weaker warming over ocean. However, there is considerable variability about the best-fit trend in land relative humidity that requires further investigation and which may be related to factors such as changes in atmospheric circulations and land-surface properties.

  8. The impact of exposure to mass media campaigns and social support on levels and trends of HIV-related stigma and discrimination in Nigeria: tools for enhancing effective HIV prevention programmes. (United States)

    Fakolade, R; Adebayo, S B; Anyanti, J; Ankomah, A


    People living with HIV and AIDS (PLWHAs) often face stigma and discrimination, especially in developing countries. HIV-related stigma is expressed through social ostracism, personal rejection, direct and indirect discrimination, and denial from families and friends. Consequently, it is associated with reduced adoption of preventive and care behaviours, including condom use, seeking for HIV test and care-seeking behaviour subsequent to diagnosis. Ignorance about the epidemiology of the disease on modes of transmission and prevention aggravates HIV-related stigma in Nigeria. Behaviour change communication activities through mass media have been shown to be an effective approach in improving people's knowledge about the disease. This paper monitors trends in the level of accepting attitudes towards PLWHAs in Nigeria between 2003 and 2007. It also evaluates the impact of exposure to mass media and social support on the levels of accepting attitudes towards PLWHAs. A significant and positive trend was evident between 2003 and 2007 (pmedia communications on HIV and AIDS issues and social support were significantly related to the reduced stigma and discrimination against PLWHAs (p<0.0001).


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Lotfi


    Full Text Available Eucalyptus forestry is an important source of competitive advantage for Brazil and, since eucalyptus is a basic raw material for industrial segments that are undergoing great expansion, monitoring the growth rate of cultivated area is increasingly relevant.This study resorted to Trend Impact Analysis (TIA to forecast the planting of eucalyptus in Brazil’s reforested areas, adjusting the linear regression of historical data in the light of three events that were under way or that will probably influence the trend: timber funds, the world financial crisis and Biomass to Liquid (BTL technology.The results allow one to infer that, in the short term, eucalyptus cultivation will expand at a rate similar to that of the linear curve, adversely affected by the world crisis and positively affected by timber funds.By 2016, however, the expansion of eucalyptus plantations is expected, largely because of the commercial scale of BTL technology.Key words: Trend Impact Analysis. Eucalyptus. Future Studies.

  10. Global long-term ozone trends derived from different observed and modelled data sets (United States)

    Coldewey-Egbers, M.; Loyola, D.; Zimmer, W.; van Roozendael, M.; Lerot, C.; Dameris, M.; Garny, H.; Braesicke, P.; Koukouli, M.; Balis, D.


    The long-term behaviour of stratospheric ozone amounts during the past three decades is investigated on a global scale using different observed and modelled data sets. Three European satellite sensors GOME/ERS-2, SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT, and GOME-2/METOP are combined and a merged global monthly mean total ozone product has been prepared using an inter-satellite calibration approach. The data set covers the 16-years period from June 1995 to June 2011 and it exhibits an excellent long-term stability, which is required for such trend studies. A multiple linear least-squares regression algorithm using different explanatory variables is applied to the time series and statistically significant positive trends are detected in the northern mid latitudes and subtropics. Global trends are also estimated using a second satellite-based Merged Ozone Data set (MOD) provided by NASA. For few selected geographical regions ozone trends are additionally calculated using well-maintained measurements of individual Dobson/Brewer ground-based instruments. A reasonable agreement in the spatial patterns of the trends is found amongst the European satellite, the NASA satellite, and the ground-based observations. Furthermore, two long-term simulations obtained with the Chemistry-Climate Models E39C-A provided by German Aerospace Center and UMUKCA-UCAM provided by University of Cambridge are analysed.

  11. Possible connections of the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice cover. (United States)

    Yu, Lejiang; Zhong, Shiyuan; Winkler, Julie A; Zhou, Mingyu; Lenschow, Donald H; Li, Bingrui; Wang, Xianqiao; Yang, Qinghua


    Sea ice is an important component of the global climate system and a key indicator of climate change. A decreasing trend in Arctic sea-ice concentration is evident in recent years, whereas Antarctic sea-ice concentration exhibits a generally increasing trend. Various studies have investigated the underlying causes of the observed trends for each region, but possible linkages between the regional trends have not been studied. Here, we hypothesize that the opposite trends in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice concentration may be linked, at least partially, through interdecadal variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Although evaluation of this hypothesis is constrained by the limitations of the sea-ice cover record, preliminary statistical analyses of one short-term and two long-term time series of observed and reanalysis sea-ice concentrations data suggest the possibility of the hypothesized linkages. For all three data sets, the leading mode of variability of global sea-ice concentration is positively correlated with the AMO and negatively correlated with the PDO. Two wave trains related to the PDO and the AMO appear to produce anomalous surface-air temperature and low-level wind fields in the two polar regions that contribute to the opposite changes in sea-ice concentration.

  12. Trend analysis using non-stationary time series clustering based on the finite element method (United States)

    Gorji Sefidmazgi, M.; Sayemuzzaman, M.; Homaifar, A.; Jha, M. K.; Liess, S.


    In order to analyze low-frequency variability of climate, it is useful to model the climatic time series with multiple linear trends and locate the times of significant changes. In this paper, we have used non-stationary time series clustering to find change points in the trends. Clustering in a multi-dimensional non-stationary time series is challenging, since the problem is mathematically ill-posed. Clustering based on the finite element method (FEM) is one of the methods that can analyze multidimensional time series. One important attribute of this method is that it is not dependent on any statistical assumption and does not need local stationarity in the time series. In this paper, it is shown how the FEM-clustering method can be used to locate change points in the trend of temperature time series from in situ observations. This method is applied to the temperature time series of North Carolina (NC) and the results represent region-specific climate variability despite higher frequency harmonics in climatic time series. Next, we investigated the relationship between the climatic indices with the clusters/trends detected based on this clustering method. It appears that the natural variability of climate change in NC during 1950-2009 can be explained mostly by AMO and solar activity.

  13. Enhanced MODIS Atmospheric Total Water Vapour Content Trends in Response to Arctic Amplification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dunya Alraddawi


    Full Text Available In order to assess the strength of the water vapour feedback within Arctic climate change, 15 years of the total column-integrated density of water vapour (TCWV from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS are analysed. Arctic TCWV distribution, trends, and anomalies for the 2001–2015 period, broken down into seasons and months, are analysed. Enhanced local spring TCWV trends above the terrestrial Arctic regions are discussed in relation to land snow cover and vegetation changes. Upward TCWV trends above the oceanic areas are discussed in lien with sea ice extent and sea surface temperature changes. Increased winter TCWV (up to 40% south of the Svalbard archipelago are observed; these trends are probably driven by a local warming and sea ice extent decline. Similarly, the Barents/Kara regions underwent wet trends (up to 40%, also associated with winter/fall local sea ice loss. Positive late summer TCWV trends above the western Greenland and Beaufort seas (about 20% result from enhanced upper ocean warming and thereby a local coastal decline in ice extent. The Mackenzie and Siberia enhanced TCWV trends (about 25% during spring are found to be associated with coincident decreased snow cover and increased vegetation, as a result of the earlier melt onset. Results show drier summers in the Eurasia and western Alaska regions, thought to be affected by changes in albedo from changing vegetation. Other TCWV anomalies are also presented and discussed in relation to the dramatic decline in sea ice extent and the exceptional rise in sea surface temperature.

  14. Understanding Evapotranspiration Trends and their Driving Mechanisms: An investigation across CONUS based on numerical modeling (United States)

    Parr, D.; Wang, G.; Fu, C.


    As shown by climate models, increasing global temperatures and enhanced greenhouse gas concentration such as CO2 have had major effects on the dynamics of the hydrologic cycle and the surface energy budget, in particular, on evapotranspiration (ET). ET has significant decadal variations whether it be regionally or globally and variations of ET have major environmental and socioeconomic impacts. A number of recent studies have found a global increase in annual mean ET around 7mm per year per decade from about 1982 to the late 1990s. These results correspond with what is expected from an intensification of the hydrological cycle. However, the increasing ET trend did not continue after 1998 and from 1998-2008 this global trend was replaced with a decreasing trend of similar magnitude. This study uses numerical modeling to investigate if similar changing ET trends emerge in the continental U.S and part of northern Mexico. After validating model simulated evaporative fluxes and comparing spatial patterns to the aforementioned studies, various changing trends of different signs are identified across the U.S., and specific regions with strong signals of change are chosen for further examination with the purpose of identifying the root causes of these changing trends and which variables are most influential towards change. Experimental simulations conducted to isolate the most influential factors towards ET reveal that precipitation amount as well as its characteristics have the greatest impact on the ET trends discovered, with other factors like wind and air temperatures displaying less influence over inter-annual trends. This study helps better understand terrestrial ET and it's interactions which will help facilitate better predictions of change in surface climate such as heatwaves and droughts as well as impacts on water resources.

  15. Journal Publication in Chile, Colombia, and Venezuela: University Responses to Global, Regional, and National Pressures and Trends (United States)

    Delgado, Jorge Enrique


    Background. This project was motivated by the impressive growth that scholarly/scientific journals in Latin America have shown in recent decades. That advance is attributed to global, regional, and national pressures and trends, as well as a response to obstacles that scholars/researchers from the region face to be published in prestigious…

  16. Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Barzin


    Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

  17. Spatial variability and trends of the rain intensity over Greece (United States)

    Kambezidis, H. D.; Larissi, I. K.; Nastos, P. T.; Paliatsos, A. G.


    In this study, the spatial and temporal variability of the mean annual rain intensity in Greece are examined during a 41-year period (1962-2002). The meteorological datasets concern monthly rain amounts (mm) and the respective monthly durations (h) recorded at thirty two meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service, which are uniformly distributed on Greek territory, in order to calculate the mean monthly rain intensity. All the rain time series used in the analysis were tested by the application of the short-cut Bartlett test of homogeneity. The spatial distribution of the mean annual rain intensity is studied using the Kriging interpolation method, while the temporal variability, concerning the mean annual rain intensity trends along with their significance (Mann-Kendall test), is analysed. The findings of the analysis show that statistically significant negative trends (95% confidence level) appear mainly in the west sub-regions of Greece, while statistically significant positive trends (95% confidence level) appear in the wider area of Athens and the complex of Cyclades Islands. Further analysis concerning the seasonal rain intensity is needed, because there are different seasonal patterns, taking into account that, convective rain in Greece occurs mainly within the summer season.

  18. Report on the heat stroke position at the end of 1964

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Wyndham, CH


    Full Text Available The aim of this study for the Transvaal and Orange Free State Chamber of Mines Research Organization was to examine the heat stroke position at the end of 1964 in terms of the trends in the numbers of stopes and development ends and also...

  19. An improved method for Multipath Hemispherical Map (MHM) based on Trend Surface Analysis (United States)

    Wang, Zhiren; Chen, Wen; Dong, Danan; Yu, Chao


    Among various approaches developed for detecting the multipath effect in high-accuracy GNSS positioning, Only MHM (Multipath Hemispherical Map) and SF (Sidereal Filtering) can be implemented to real-time GNSS data processing. SF is based on the time repeatability of satellites which just suitable for static environment, while the spatiotemporal repeatability-based MHM is applicable not only for static environment but also for dynamic carriers with static multipath environment such as ships and airplanes, and utilizes much smaller number of parameters than ASF. However, the MHM method also has certain defects. Since the MHM take the mean of residuals from the grid as the filter value, it is more suitable when the multipath regime is medium to low frequency. Now existing research data indicate that the newly advanced Sidereal Filtering (ASF) method perform better with high frequency multipath reduction than MHM by contrast. To solve the above problem and improve MHM's performance on high frequency multipath, we combined binary trend surface analysis method with original MHM model to effectively analyze particular spatial distribution and variation trends of multipath effect. We computed trend surfaces of the residuals within a grid by least-square procedures, and chose the best results through the moderate successive test. The enhanced MHM grid was constructed from a set of coefficients of the fitted equation instead of mean value. According to the analysis of the actual observation, the improved MHM model shows positive effect on high frequency multipath reduction, and significantly reduced the root mean square (RMS) value of the carrier residuals. Keywords: Trend Surface Analysis; Multipath Hemispherical Map; high frequency multipath effect

  20. Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data (United States)

    Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.


    Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

  1. Global trends and priorities for agriculture development in the beginning of the xxi century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavel Vasil’evich Smekalov


    Full Text Available This paper pays attention to global issues related to the growth of population and food production: reduced growth rate of agricultural production, reduction of resource potential of agriculture and others. Critical factors and trends of structural changes in agriculture are identified. Results of comparative analysis of the development of farms in European countries and Russia are presented. Studies have shown that at the end of the last century there have been the following trends in the global agriculture: there has been a trend of farm consolidation in size, new controls and control of production are were introduced as well as more stringent quality standards of ecology were launched, which, in turn, require introduction of new technics and technologies; the processes of plants and animals development become more controllable and manageable. Conseptual foresights of pricing in the food market are given. Priority areas of agricultural policy aimed at creating conditions for sustainable rural development and accelerated growth in agricultural production by improving its competitiveness are identified

  2. Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013) (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.


    Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

  3. Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide (United States)

    Sitch, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gruber, N.; Jones, S. D.; Murray-Tortarolo, G.; Ahlström, A.; Doney, S. C.; Graven, H.; Heinze, C.; Huntingford, C.; Levis, S.; Levy, P. E.; Lomas, M.; Poulter, B.; Viovy, N.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.; Arneth, A.; Bonan, G.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Ellis, R.; Gloor, M.; Peylin, P.; Piao, S. L.; Le Quéré, C.; Smith, B.; Zhu, Z.; Myneni, R.


    , where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counteract the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.

  4. Marketing Trends to Watch (United States)

    Circle, Alison


    This article identifies 13 cultural trends that libraries can turn into opportunites to reach patrons. These trends include: Twitter, online reputation management, value added content, mobile marketing, and emotional connection.

  5. Revisiting the coupling between NDVI trends and cropland changes in the Sahel drylands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tong, Xiaoye; Brandt, Martin Stefan; Hiernaux, Pierre


    The impact of human activities via land use/cover changes on NDVI trends is critical for an improved understanding of satellite-observed changes in vegetation productivity in drylands. The dominance of positive NDVI trends in the Sahel, the so-called re-greening, is sometimes interpreted...... as a combined effect of an increase in rainfall and cropland expansion or agricultural intensification. Yet, the impact of changes in land use has yet to be thoroughly tested and supported by empirical evidence. At present, no studies have considered the importance of the different seasonal NDVI signals...... of cropped and fallowed fields when interpreting NDVI trends, as both field types are commonly merged into a single ‘cropland’ class. We make use of the distinctly different phenology of cropped and fallowed fields and use seasonal NDVI curves to separate these two field types. A fuzzy classifier is applied...

  6. [Trends and perspectives of nursing administration: a study in the Santa Casa hospital of Belo Horizonte-MG]. (United States)

    Spagnol, Carla Aparecida; Ferraz, Clarice Aparecida


    The "Santa Casa" Hospital of Belo Horizonte has implemented a new management system that has characterized it as a flexible organization. Based on this context, the authors of this research defined the following objectives: to analyze nursing administration by considering the implementation of the Management System (SIGESC), to describe how the nursing team perceives communication, the decision-making process and interpersonal relationships, to identify possible trends and perspectives present in the administrative practice developed. A time of transition in nursing administration that presents characteristics of classical management and contemporaneous management was shown as well as trends and perspectives that will contribute to the reorganization of nursing work in hospitals.

  7. Contributions of Greenhouse Gas Forcing and the Southern Annular Mode to Historical Southern Ocean Surface Temperature Trends (United States)

    Kostov, Yavor; Ferreira, David; Armour, Kyle C.; Marshall, John


    We examine the 1979-2014 Southern Ocean (SO) sea surface temperature (SST) trends simulated in an ensemble of coupled general circulation models and evaluate possible causes of the models' inability to reproduce the observed 1979-2014 SO cooling. For each model we estimate the response of SO SST to step changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing and in the seasonal indices of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Using these step-response functions, we skillfully reconstruct the models' 1979-2014 SO SST trends. Consistent with the seasonal signature of the Antarctic ozone hole and the seasonality of SO stratification, the summer and fall SAM exert a large impact on the simulated SO SST trends. We further identify conditions that favor multidecadal SO cooling: (1) a weak SO warming response to GHG forcing, (2) a strong multidecadal SO cooling response to a positive SAM trend, and (3) a historical SAM trend as strong as in observations.

  8. Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change. (United States)

    Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H


    Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  9. Review and meta-analysis of trends in precipitation regime in Italy (United States)

    Caporali, Enrica; Chiarello, Valentina; Defina, Ilaria; Fatichi, Simone


    Research to detect changes in climatic variables has become a topic of particular interest to observe signals of climate change as well as to understand drivers of modifications in water resources availability and suggest management adaptations. We specifically focus on Italy, outlining the "state of the art" of the Italian precipitation regime through a review of 46 published studies on rainfall trend analyses. The aim is to combine a large body of knowledge in a single review and to explain the main patterns of rainfall changes occurred in the last decades. The review results are analyzed for the entire Italian peninsula and separately for three macro areas: North, Central and South&Islands. The attention is focused on three indexes at the annual and seasonal scale: mean Total Precipitation (TP), number of Wet Days (WDs) and Precipitation Intensity (PI). Two other aspects are briefly investigated: drought and extreme rainfall events. Different geographic areas, time series length and number of stations, are taken into account using a "weight factor Fi". Subsequently, for each index, findings in terms of increasing or decreasing trends are collected into five principal categories: Negative (N), Negative Significant (NS), Positive (P), Positive Significant (PS), and No Trend (NT). Overall, there is an agreement about the tendency of the WDs that are decreasing on the whole Italy, with some discrepancies regarding the spring and the summer seasons. This is substantially in agreement with the tendency of the TP, especially at annual scale where the presence of a decreasing trend is detected. An opposite behavior is detected for PI, which increases both on an annual and on a seasonal basis. It is worth to point out that PI is analyzed just in few studies and it is strongly influenced on the classification in precipitation intensity intervals. A general finding is that signal to noise ratio on precipitation metrics is quite low, which hampers a clear definition of

  10. Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series (United States)

    Preis, T.


    This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

  11. Training in Spanish organizations: Trends and future perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Jose Rubio Hurtado


    Full Text Available Purpose: This study aims to identify training trends in Spanish organizations.Design/methodology/approach: A survey methodology is conducted and the questionnaire is the strategy to collect information. In order to construct the sample, a previous selection of enterprises was done out of the 50 000 enterprises registered at DICODI (Data base of main Spanish societies 2004/2005. The sampling was done by quotas. The quotas or categories selected were: the enterprises’ activity sector, gender and job position. Findings: The research describes the actual state of training trends and the changes that seem to glimpse out of the considered dimensions: training planning, goals, recipients, modalities, resources, evaluation, training professionals and outsourcing.Research limitations: The study was carried out through a not randomized sample, so the results cannot be generalized.Practical implications: Organizations can make future proposals from the facts exposed in our research. Originality/value: Is the first time in our context that a research of this type is performed, showing significant matches in the results with other studies of international reference.

  12. Old Words, New Meanings: A Study of Trends in Science Librarian Job Ads (United States)

    Bychowski, Brenna K. H.; Caffrey, Carolyn M.; Costa, Mia C.; Moore, Angela D.; Sudhakaran, Jessamyn; Zhang, Yuening


    Job ads are supposed to provide careful descriptions of the positions being advertised. Based on this premise, an analysis of job ads over time should reveal emerging trends and changes in a profession. The existing literature on science librarianship emphasizes that there are fluctuations in the demand for subject expertise and technology skills…

  13. Navigation studies based on the ubiquitous positioning technologies (United States)

    Ye, Lei; Mi, Weijie; Wang, Defeng


    This paper summarized the nowadays positioning technologies, such as absolute positioning methods and relative positioning methods, indoor positioning and outdoor positioning, active positioning and passive positioning. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technologies were introduced as the omnipresent out-door positioning technologies, including GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BD-1/2. After analysis of the shortcomings of GNSS, indoor positioning technologies were discussed and compared, including A-GPS, Cellular network, Infrared, Electromagnetism, Computer Vision Cognition, Embedded Pressure Sensor, Ultrasonic, RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification), Bluetooth, WLAN etc.. Then the concept and characteristics of Ubiquitous Positioning was proposed. After the ubiquitous positioning technologies contrast and selection followed by system engineering methodology, a navigation system model based on Incorporate Indoor-Outdoor Positioning Solution was proposed. And this model was simulated in the Galileo Demonstration for World Expo Shanghai project. In the conclusion, the prospects of ubiquitous positioning based navigation were shown, especially to satisfy the public location information acquiring requirement.

  14. Satellite-based trends of solar radiation and cloud parameters in Europe (United States)

    Pfeifroth, Uwe; Bojanowski, Jedrzej S.; Clerbaux, Nicolas; Manara, Veronica; Sanchez-Lorenzo, Arturo; Trentmann, Jörg; Walawender, Jakub P.; Hollmann, Rainer


    Solar radiation is the main driver of the Earth's climate. Measuring solar radiation and analysing its interaction with clouds are essential for the understanding of the climate system. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates satellite-based, high-quality climate data records, with a focus on the energy balance and water cycle. Here, multiple of these data records are analyzed in a common framework to assess the consistency in trends and spatio-temporal variability of surface solar radiation, top-of-atmosphere reflected solar radiation and cloud fraction. This multi-parameter analysis focuses on Europe and covers the time period from 1992 to 2015. A high correlation between these three variables has been found over Europe. An overall consistency of the climate data records reveals an increase of surface solar radiation and a decrease in top-of-atmosphere reflected radiation. In addition, those trends are confirmed by negative trends in cloud cover. This consistency documents the high quality and stability of the CM SAF climate data records, which are mostly derived independently from each other. The results of this study indicate that one of the main reasons for the positive trend in surface solar radiation since the 1990's is a decrease in cloud coverage even if an aerosol contribution cannot be completely ruled out.

  15. Flood trends along the Rhine: the role of river training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Vorogushyn


    Full Text Available Several previous studies have detected positive trends in flood flows in German rivers, among others, at Rhine gauges over the past six decades. The presence and detectability of the climate change signal in flood records has been controversially discussed, particularly against the background of massive river training measures in the Rhine. In the past the Rhine catchment has been heavily trained, including the construction of the Rhine weir cascade, flood protection dikes and detention basins. The present study investigates the role of river training on changes in annual maximum daily flows at Rhine gauges starting from Maxau down to Lobith. In particular, the effect of the Rhine weir cascade and of a series of detention basins was investigated. By homogenising the original flood flow records in the period from 1952 till 2009, the annual maximum series were computed that would have been recorded had river training measures not been in place. Using multiple trend analysis, relative changes in the homogenised time series were found to be from a few percentage points to more than 10 percentage points smaller compared to the original records. This effect is attributable to the river training measures, and primarily to the construction of the Rhine weir cascade. The increase in Rhine flood discharges during this period was partly caused by an unfavourable superposition of the Rhine and Neckar flood waves. This superposition resulted from an acceleration of the Rhine waves due to the construction of the weir cascade and associated channelisation and dike heightening. However, at the same time, tributary flows across the entire Upper and Lower Rhine, which enhance annual maximum Rhine peaks, showed strong positive trends. This suggests the dominance of another driver or drivers which acted alongside river training.

  16. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.


    contribution to the wind speed turbulence intensity for a number of representative locations. A linear de-trending process has been implemented during indexing of the time-series. The observed de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. This reduction...... depends primarily on site characteristics and local mean wind speed variations. Reduced turbulence intensity will result in lower design fatigue loads. This aspect of de-trending is discussed by use of a simple heuristic load model. Finally an empirical model for de-trending wind resource data...

  17. Trends and changes in tropical and summer days at the Adana Sub-Region of the Mediterranean Region, Southern Turkey (United States)

    Bayer Altın, Türkan; Barak, Belma


    In this study, the long-term variability and trends of the annual and seasonal numbers of summer and tropical days of the Adana Sub-region were investigated using nonlinear and linear trend detection tests for the period 1960-2014 at 14 meteorological stations. The results suggest that the annual number of summer and tropical days was generally below the long-term average through to the end of the 1980s. In particular, positive anomaly values could be observed at all stations between the years 1993-2014. With respect to the Kruskal-Wallis homogeneity test, the significant breaking date was 1993. The rapid rise of the annual number of summer (tropical) days after this year led to the inversion of the negative trends observed from 1987 to 1992 into positive ones. The increasing trend is statistically significance at 0.01 level in Yumurtalık, Mersin and Antakya for the annual number of summer and tropical days. Dörtyol, İskenderun and Elbistan were significance at 0.01 level for tropical days. The largest positive anomalies of the summer of 2010 are observed in coastal vicinity (Mersin, Yumurtalık and İskenderun). This indicates that these settlements underwent a long-term warm period and thermal conditions due to increasing temperatures in the spring and summer months. The same conditions are found in high inner areas (Göksun and Elbistan) for tropical days. It is noticed that a tendency for greater warming occurred at stations located above 1000 m in the sub-region. The average number of warm days will increase 2-days per 100-years in southern part of the sub-region. The increasing trend in summer temperatures can be considered a potential risk, notably for human health and for economic and crop losses in the Adana Sub-region, including Çukurova, one of the most important agriculture areas of Turkey.

  18. Spatial and Temporal Trends of Snowfall in Central New York - A Lake Effect Dominated Region (United States)

    Hartnett, Justin Joseph

    Central New York is located in one of the snowiest regions in the United States, with the city of Syracuse, New York the snowiest metropolis in the nation. Snowfall in the region generally begins in mid-November and lasts until late-March. Snow accumulation occurs from a multitude of conditions: frontal systems, mid-latitude cyclones, Nor'easters, and most notably lake-effect storms. Lake effect snowfall (LES) is a difficult parameter to forecast due to the isolated and highly variable nature of the storm. Consequently, studies have attempted to determine changes in snowfall for lake-effect dominated regions. Annual snowfall patterns are of particular concern as seasonal snowfall totals are vital for water resources, winter businesses, agriculture, government and state agencies, and much more. Through the use of snowfall, temperature, precipitation, and location data from the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Program (COOP), spatial and temporal changes in snowfall for Central New York were determined. In order to determine climatic changes in snowfall, statistical analyses were performed (i.e. least squares estimation, correlations, principal component analyses, etc.) and spatial maps analyzed. Once snowfall trends were determined, factors influencing the trends were examined. Long-term snowfall trends for CNY were positive for original stations (˜0.46 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1) and homogenously filtered stations (0.23 +/- 0.20 in. yr -1). However, snowfall trends for shorter time-increments within the long-term period were not consistent, as positive, negative, and neutral trends were calculated. Regional differences in snowfall trends were observed for CNY as typical lake-effect areas (northern counties, the Tug Hill Plateau and the Southern Hills) experienced larger snowfall trends than areas less dominated by LES. Typical lake-effect months (December - February) experienced the greatest snowfall trend in CNY compared to other winter months. The

  19. A Global Assessment of Long-Term Greening and Browning Trends in Pasture Lands Using the GIMMS LAI3g Dataset

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin I. Cook


    Full Text Available Pasture ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to land degradation due to the high risk of human disturbance (e.g., overgrazing, burning, etc., especially when compared with natural ecosystems (non-pasture, non-cultivated where direct human impacts are minimal. Using maximum annual leaf area index (LAImax as a proxy for standing biomass and peak annual aboveground productivity, we analyze greening and browning trends in pasture areas from 1982–2008. Inter-annual variability in pasture productivity is strongly controlled by precipitation (positive correlation and, to a lesser extent, temperature (negative correlation. Linear temporal trends are significant in 23% of pasture cells, with the vast majority of these areas showing positive LAImax trends. Spatially extensive productivity declines are only found in a few regions, most notably central Asia, southwest North America, and southeast Australia. Statistically removing the influence of precipitation reduces LAImax trends by only 13%, suggesting that precipitation trends are only a minor contributor to long-term greening and browning of pasture lands. No significant global relationship was found between LAImax and pasture intensity, although the magnitude of trends did vary between cells classified as natural versus pasture. In the tropics and Southern Hemisphere, the median rate of greening in pasture cells is significantly higher than for cells dominated by natural vegetation. In the Northern Hemisphere extra-tropics, conversely, greening of natural areas is 2–4 times the magnitude of greening in pasture areas. This analysis presents one of the first global assessments of greening and browning trends in global pasture lands, including a comparison with vegetation trends in regions dominated by natural ecosystems. Our results suggest that degradation of pasture lands is not a globally widespread phenomenon and, consistent with much of the terrestrial biosphere, there have been widespread

  20. Career Preparedness and School Achievement of Portuguese Children: Longitudinal Trend Articulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria do Céu Taveira


    Full Text Available Social Cognitive Career Theory suggests that students' preparedness for the school-to-work transition is a developmental process. Middle school children explore various careers, obtain feedback about their academic progress, and develop career self-efficacy and outcome expectations. These processes advance provisional educational/occupational goals. The literature has suggested articulations between career and academic development and how both vary across demographic characteristics, but longitudinal studies linking these processes are scarce. This study tested articulations between career preparedness and academic achievement during middle school years and employed gender and geographical location as potential moderators affecting the linkage between career and school domains. Participants included 429 children (47.8% girls from northern (69.5% and central Portugal (30.5% followed across four occasions of measurement (MageWave1 = 10.23, SD = 0.50. Data was collected with school records, the Multidimensional Scales of Perceived Self-Efficacy, Career Exploratory Outcome Expectations Scale, Childhood Career Exploration Inventory and Childhood Career Development Scale. Average and orthnormalized linear, quadratic and cubic trends were computed. Pearson correlation coefficients suggested positive and statistically significant associations between career exploratory outcome expectations and academic achievement average trends. Career planning and self-efficacy expectations were negatively associated with academic achievement quadratic trends. Multiple linear regression models suggested that career exploratory outcome expectations and career planning were respectively statistically significant predictors of the average and quadratic trends of academic achievement. Gender moderated the association between the career variables and academic achievement linear trends as well as the relation of career planning and self-efficacy with academic achievement

  1. Contemporary Trends in Land Surface Phenologies from the Aral Basin Suggest Weather- or Irrigation-Driven Changes in GPP not Land Cover Change (United States)

    Wright, C. K.; de Beurs, K.; Henebry, G. M.


    The transformation of the Aral Sea into the Aral Lakes is a startling example of anthropogenic environmental degradation. However, ongoing impacts of hydrologic modification and climatic change are occurring throughout the nearly 2 million km2 Aral Basin (AB), thus requiring synoptic, basin-wide monitoring of environmental trends. The MODIS 500m global land cover (LC) product is a potential source of such information in a data-sparse region like the AB. However, we find that it is particularly unstable in this arid/semi-arid region. For example, 25% of AB pixels change LC class between 2001 and 2005 versions of the global LC using the IGBP LC scheme. Here we present an alternate analysis of environmental trends in the AB using MODIS data at the same spatial resolution, but incorporating temporal information embedded within contemporary land surface phenologies (LSPs), in contrast to temporally delimited LC. NDVI time series from 2001-2008 were derived from 500m MODIS NBAR data (16-d composites every 8 d; MCD43A4). Focusing on the period from 1 March to 1 October, each pixel time series was comprised of 27 NDVI values per year (or 216 composites in total). Trend analysis using the nonparametric Seasonal Kendall test revealed a number of spatially coherent hotspots of highly significant (p<0.01) positive and negative trends in NDVI dynamics over the 2001-2008 interval. Relative to the 2001 and 2005 LC classifications, positive trends tended to coincide with the following transitions between IGBP classes: open shrub → closed shrub; grassland → {open shrub, cropland}; {open shrub, cropland/natural vegetation mix} → cropland. These findings suggest that apparent LC change events might be false-positives caused by weather-driven increases in GPP. In turn, negative trends were largely coincident with putative LC change to grassland from mostly woody classes: {closed shrub, open shrub, woody savanna, savanna, snow/ice, barren} → grassland. Here, potential false-positives

  2. Warming Trends and Bleaching Stress of the World’s Coral Reefs 1985–2012 (United States)

    Heron, Scott F.; Maynard, Jeffrey A.; van Hooidonk, Ruben; Eakin, C. Mark


    Coral reefs across the world’s oceans are in the midst of the longest bleaching event on record (from 2014 to at least 2016). As many of the world’s reefs are remote, there is limited information on how past thermal conditions have influenced reef composition and current stress responses. Using satellite temperature data for 1985–2012, the analysis we present is the first to quantify, for global reef locations, spatial variations in warming trends, thermal stress events and temperature variability at reef-scale (~4 km). Among over 60,000 reef pixels globally, 97% show positive SST trends during the study period with 60% warming significantly. Annual trends exceeded summertime trends at most locations. This indicates that the period of summer-like temperatures has become longer through the record, with a corresponding shortening of the ‘winter’ reprieve from warm temperatures. The frequency of bleaching-level thermal stress increased three-fold between 1985–91 and 2006–12 – a trend climate model projections suggest will continue. The thermal history data products developed enable needed studies relating thermal history to bleaching resistance and community composition. Such analyses can help identify reefs more resilient to thermal stress. PMID:27922080

  3. Membrane bioreactors in waste water treatment - status and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kraume, M. [Technische Universitaet Berlin, Chair of Chemical and Process Engineering, Berlin (Germany); Drews, A. [HTW Berlin, FB II, Life Science Engineering, Berlin (Germany)


    Due to their unique advantages like controlled biomass retention, improved effluent quality, and decreased footprint, membrane bioreactors (MBRs) are being increasingly used in waste water treatment up to a capacity of several 100,000 p.e. This article reviews the current status of MBRs and reports trends in MBR design and operation. Typical operational and design parameters are given as well as guidelines for waste water treatment plant revamping. To further improve the biological performance, specific or hybrid process configurations are shown to lead to, e.g., enhanced nutrient removal. With regards to reducing membrane fouling, optimized modules, advanced control, and strategies like the addition of flux enhancers are currently emerging. (Abstract Copyright [2010], Wiley Periodicals, Inc.)

  4. Temperature and Precipitation trends in Kashmir valley, North Western Himalayas (United States)

    Shafiq, Mifta Ul; Rasool, Rehana; Ahmed, Pervez; Dimri, A. P.


    Climate change has emerged as an important issue ever to confront mankind. This concern emerges from the fact that our day-to-day activities are leading to impacts on the Earth's atmosphere that has the potential to significantly alter the planet's shield and radiation balance. Developing countries particularly whose income is particularly derived from agricultural activities are at the forefront of bearing repercussions due to changing climate. The present study is an effort to analyze the changing trends of precipitation and temperature variables in Kashmir valley along different elevation zones in the north western part of India. As the Kashmir valley has a rich repository of glaciers with its annual share of precipitation, slight change in the temperature and precipitation regime has far reaching environmental and economic consequences. The results from Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) data of the period 1980-2014 reveals that the annual mean temperature of Kashmir valley has increased significantly. Accelerated warming has been observed during 1980-2014, with intense warming in the recent years (2001-2014). During the period 1980-2014, steeper increase, in annual mean maximum temperature than annual mean minimum temperature, has been observed. In addition, mean maximum temperature in plain regions has shown higher rate of increase when compared with mountainous areas. In case of mean minimum temperature, mountainous regions have shown higher rate of increase. Analysis of precipitation data for the same period shows a decreasing trend with mountainous regions having the highest rate of decrease which can be quite hazardous for the fragile mountain environment of the Kashmir valley housing a large number of glaciers.

  5. Prevalence and trends of drugged driving in Canada. (United States)

    Robertson, Robyn D; Mainegra Hing, Marisela; Pashley, Charlotte R; Brown, Steve W; Vanlaar, Ward G M


    This study evaluates prevalence and trends in drugged driving in Canada based on multiple indicators collected from the Road Safety Monitor (RSM) and Canada's National Fatality Database maintained by the Traffic Injury Research Foundation (TIRF). The objective of this paper is to identify the state of drug-positive driving in Canada, as well as to make comparisons with data from previous years to determine whether changes have occurred. Available data from the RSM on self-reported drugged driving behaviours were collected and analyzed using multivariate techniques in various years spanning from 2002 to 2015. Data from TIRF's National Fatality Database from 2000 to 2012 were also analyzed to evaluate trends and prevalence of drugs in fatally injured drivers across Canada. Additionally, differences among drugged drivers with respect to gender and age were studied. Analyses of the RSM data and of the National Fatality Database showed that, as a whole, the prevalence of drugged driving has remained relatively stable over the past decade, with some changes noticed in specific years for some drug types. Specifically from the RSM, there was a 62.5% increase from the 1.6% of drivers reporting driving within two hours of using marijuana in 2013 to 2.6% in 2015. The analyses of the fatality data revealed a 16.9% increase in the percentage of fatally injured drivers testing positive for drugs between 2000 and 2012 (from 33.56% to 39.24%). Cocaine-positive fatally injured drivers increased from 3.6% in 2000 to 6.2% in 2012. Similarly, marijuana-positive fatally injured drivers increased from 12.8% in 2000 to 19.7% in 2012. Results showed varying characteristics with respect to gender and age among self-reported and fatally injured drugged drivers. Drugged driving behaviours remain prevalent among Canadian drivers and drugs continue to be found in over one-third of tested fatally injured drivers. Although self-reported behaviours have neither decreased nor increased overall in

  6. The Effects of Positive and Negative Mood on Cognition and Motivation in Multimedia Learning Environment (United States)

    Liew, Tze Wei; Tan, Su-Mae


    The Cognitive-Affective Theory of Learning with Media framework posits that the multimedia learning process is mediated by the learner's mood. Recent studies have shown that positive mood has a facilitating effect on multimedia learning. Though literature has shown that negative mood encourages an individual to engage in a more systematic,…

  7. Trends of Sustainable Residential Architecture


    Narvydas, A


    The article is based on Master’s research conducted during Scottish Housing Expo 2010. The aim of the research was to determine the prevailing trends in sustainable residential architecture. Each trend can be described by features detected during visual and technical observation of project data. Based on that architects may predict possible problems related to a specific trend.

  8. Evolutions and Trends in Presenting. The Balance Sheet as a Financial Position Picture of an Entity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ecaterina Necsulescu


    Full Text Available In this article we proposed to achieve a synthesis of the key moments in the evolution of the concept of balance, of the theories formulated over time, of the presentation forms of the balance sheet, a taxonomy of balance sheets, supplemented by a breakdown of the concept of financial position and of the structures related to the assessment of the financial position. In other words, we will consider a gradual presentation of the concept of balance sheet over time and a presentation of the balance as the main tool for highlighting the patrimonial situation, of the assets of enterprise owners and of the picture on the financial position of an economic entity.

  9. Power plant instrumentation and control. Innovations shown at the Interkama '99 trade fair

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ullemeyer, M.; Fritz, P.


    At the Interkama '99 trade fair, innovative software and hardware solutions for the power industry 'from power plant to the plug' were shown. The report mentions the companies and explains their new developments and systems. (orig./CB) [de

  10. Conflict Resolution Trends in the Black Sea Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanna Shelest


    Full Text Available The article assesses the main trends of the various conflict resolution processes in the Black Sea region. It emphasizes the transformation of the mediators’ role, including the increase of the EU efforts in the various peace processes. The author states that the absence of military actions, the narrowness of the existing peace formats and competition between the various mediating parties for leadership lead to the militarization of the region, the absence of the conflicts’ ‘ripeness’, new peace initiatives and an ‘all or nothing’ position on the part of the conflicting parties.

  11. Trends and Variability of North Pacific Polar Lows

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Chen


    Full Text Available The 6-hourly 1948–2010 NCEP 1 reanalyses have been dynamically downscaled for the region of the North Pacific. With a detecting-and-tracking algorithm, the climatology of North Pacific Polar Lows has been constructed. This derived climatology is consistent with the limited observational evidence in terms of frequency and spatial distribution. The climatology exhibits strong year-to-year variability but weak decadal variability and a small positive trend. A canonical correlation analysis describes the conditioning of the formation of Polar Lows by characteristic seasonal mean flow regimes, which favor, or limit, cold air outbreaks and upper air troughs.

  12. Validation of ISTTOK Plasma Position Controller

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Valcarcel, D. F.; Carvalho, I. S.; Carvalho, B. B.; Fernandes, H.; Silva, C.; Duarte, P.; Duarte, A.; Carvalho, P. J.; Pereira, T.


    Active control of plasma position on the ISTTOK tokamak is of extreme importance due to the inherent instability caused by an unfavourable curvature of the external equilibrium magnetic field. The consequences of this instability can be suppressed by applying a dynamic equilibrium field. A digital real-time plasma position control system for ISTTOK has been developed to perform this task. This system uses magnetic measurements to determine the plasma position and feeds the control signal to power supplies that generate the equilibrium fields. After commissioning, the results obtained have shown some discrepancies between the magnetic plasma position reconstruction and several other diagnostics, such as tomography. This discrepancy at some extent is due to the effect of the external magnetic fields on the poloidal magnetic measurements. This work presents a study that addresses this issue. In a future work it will lead to the development of a corrected plasma position algorithm, aiming at obtaining improved performance of plasma discharges and controlled plasma column displacements

  13. Water use in Georgia by county for 2010 and water-use trends, 1985–2010 (United States)

    Lawrence, Stephen J.


    Water use and water withdrawals and returns in 2010 are estimated for each major river basin, principal aquifer, water-planning region, and county in Georgia using data obtained from various Federal and State agencies and local sources. Offstream water use in 2010 is estimated for the categories of public supply, domestic, commercial, industrial, mining, irrigation, livestock, aquaculture, and thermoelectric power. Water-use trends for 1985 to 2010 are also shown.

  14. Secular trends in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican school-aged children and adolescents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernanda Karina dos Santos

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine secular changes in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican children and adolescents between 1992, 1999 and 2012. METHODS: 3374 subjects (1600 boys, 1774 girls, distributed across the three time points (523 subjects in 1992; 1565 in 1999; and 1286 in 2012, were studied. Height and weight were measured, BMI was computed, and WHO cut-points were used to define nutritional status. ANCOVA models were used to compare height, weight and BMI across study years; chi-square was used to determine differences in the nutritional status prevalence across the years. RESULTS: Significant differences for boys were found for height and weight (p2012, and those from 2012 had the highest BMI (1999<2012. In general, similar patterns were observed when mean values were analyzed by age. A positive trend was observed for overweight and obesity prevalences, whereas a negative trend emerged for wasting, stunting-wasting (in boys, and normal-weight (in girls; no clear trend was evident for stunting. CONCLUSION: Significant positive changes in growth and nutritional status were observed among Mozambican youth from 1992 to 2012, which are associated with economic, social and cultural transitional processes, expressing a dual burden in this population, with reduction in malnourished youth in association with an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity.

  15. Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years (United States)

    Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing


    Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

  16. Which Trend is your Friend?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse


    Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

  17. De-trending of turbulence measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.


    based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

  18. Trends and variability of cloud fraction cover in the Arctic, 1982-2009 (United States)

    Boccolari, Mauro; Parmiggiani, Flavio


    Climatology, trends and variability of cloud fraction cover (CFC) data over the Arctic (north of 70°N), were analysed over the 1982-2009 period. Data, available from the Climate Monitoring Satellite Application Facility (CM SAF), are derived from satellite measurements by AVHRR. Climatological means confirm permanent high CFC values over the Atlantic sector during all the year and during summer over the eastern Arctic Ocean. Lower values are found in the rest of the analysed area especially over Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago, nearly continuously during all the months. These results are confirmed by CFC trends and variability. Statistically significant trends were found during all the months over the Greenland Sea, particularly during the winter season (negative, less than -5 % dec -1) and over the Beaufort Sea in spring (positive, more than +5 % dec -1). CFC variability, investigated by the Empirical Orthogonal Functions, shows a substantial "non-variability" in the Northern Atlantic Ocean. Statistically significant correlations between CFC principal components elements and both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index and Pacific North America patterns are found.

  19. Positioning Reduction of Deep Space Probes Based on VLBI Tracking (United States)

    Qiao, S. B.


    In the background of the Chinese Lunar Exploration Project and the Yinghuo Project, through theoretical analysis, algorithm study, software development, data simulation, real data processing and so on, the positioning reductions of the European lunar satellite Smart-1 and Mars Express (MEX) satellite, as well as the Chinese Chang'e-1 (CE-1) and Chang'e-2 (CE-2) satellites are accomplished by using VLBI and USB tracking data in this dissertation. The progress is made in various aspects including the development of theoretical model, the construction of observation equation, the analysis of the condition of normal equation, the selection and determination of the constraint, the analysis of data simulation, the detection of outliers in observations, the maintenance of the stability of the solution of parameters, the development of the practical software system, the processing of the real tracking data and so on. The details of the research progress in this dissertation are written as follows: (1) The algorithm is analyzed concerning the positioning reduction of the deep spacecraft based on VLBI tracking data. Through data simulation, it is analyzed for the effects of the bias in predicted orbit, the white noises and systematic errors in VLBI delays, and USB ranges on the positioning reduction of spacecraft. Results show that it is preferable to suppress the dispersion of positioning data points by applying the constraint of geocentric distance of spacecraft when there are only VLBI tracking data. The positioning solution is a biased estimate via observations of three VLBI stations. For the case of four tracking stations, the uncertainty of the constraint should be in accordance with the bias in the predicted orbit. White noises in delays and ranges mainly result in dispersion of the sequence of positioning data points. If there is the systematic error of observations, the systematic offset of the positioning results is caused, and there are trend jumps in the shape of

  20. Gender and Ethnic Diversity in Academic PM&R Faculty: National Trend Analysis of Two Decades. (United States)

    Hwang, Jaeho; Byrd, Kia; Nguyen, Michael O; Liu, Michael; Huang, Yuru; Bae, Gordon H


    Over the years, a number of studies have demonstrated an increase in gender and ethnic diversity among US physicians. Despite substantial progress in eliminating gender and racial inequities in the field of medicine, women and ethnic minorities are still underrepresented among medical faculty at academic institutions. This study aims to describe the trends in gender and ethnic diversity among Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation (PM&R) faculty through statistical analysis of data describing gender and ethnicity of full-time academic faculty gathered from the Association of American Medical Colleges Faculty Roster from 1994 to 2014. Proportions representing the percentages of females and ethnic minorities of a given faculty position in medical schools were compared across each of the other faculty ranks. Results showed that the average yearly percent increases in the proportion of female PM&R faculty in associate professor (0.68%) and full professor (0.54%) positions were greater than those in instructor (0.30%) and assistant professor (0.35%) positions. In contrast, the average yearly percent increase in the proportion of non-Caucasian PM&R faculty in full professor positions (0.19%) was less than those in instructor (0.84%), assistant (0.93%), and associate professor (0.89%) positions. Overall, trends among faculty exhibit a steady increase in gender and ethnic diversity, although promotion disparity continues to exist among specific academic positions for some groups. This study provides a current perspective on recent changes in diversity among faculty in PM&R and may prove useful when defining strategies to improve workforce diversity.

  1. Importance of ensembles in projecting regional climate trends (United States)

    Arritt, Raymond; Daniel, Ariele; Groisman, Pavel


    We have performed an ensemble of simulations using RegCM4 to examine the ability to reproduce observed trends in precipitation intensity and to project future changes through the 21st century for the central United States. We created a matrix of simulations over the CORDEX North America domain for 1950-2099 by driving the regional model with two different global models (HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M, both for RCP8.5), by performing simulations at both 50 km and 25 km grid spacing, and by using three different convective parameterizations. The result is a set of 12 simulations (two GCMs by two resolutions by three convective parameterizations) that can be used to systematically evaluate the influence of simulation design on predicted precipitation. The two global models were selected to bracket the range of climate sensitivity in the CMIP5 models: HadGEM2-ES has the highest ECS of the CMIP5 models, while GFDL-ESM2M has one of the lowestt. Our evaluation metrics differ from many other RCM studies in that we focus on the skill of the models in reproducing past trends rather than the mean climate state. Trends in frequency of extreme precipitation (defined as amounts exceeding 76.2 mm/day) for most simulations are similar to the observed trend but with notable variations depending on RegCM4 configuration and on the driving GCM. There are complex interactions among resolution, choice of convective parameterization, and the driving GCM that carry over into the future climate projections. We also note that biases in the current climate do not correspond to biases in trends. As an example of these points the Emanuel scheme is consistently "wet" (positive bias in precipitation) yet it produced the smallest precipitation increase of the three convective parameterizations when used in simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES. However, it produced the largest increase when driven by GFDL-ESM2M. These findings reiterate that ensembles using multiple RCM configurations and driving GCMs are

  2. Post-Fukushima trends in russian nuclear energy and public perception

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gagarinskiy, A. Yu.


    The gloomy 'nuclear spring' of 2011 in practice had virtually no effect on the new nuclear construction program in Russia, which keeps its second place in the world as concerns the number of new NPP units under construction. Russian positions on the world nuclear power plant construction markets have improved. Current intensive analysis of Fukushima-Daiichi accident consequences is already starting to influence not only specific safety enhancement measures at operating units, but also the opinions related to strategic areas of future nuclear energy development. This paper is intended to demonstrate the nuclear community's position on the development strategy, as well as post-Fukushima trends in the activities of public forces, which try to form the attitude towards the nuclear option. (authors)

  3. Need and trends of volumetric tests in recurring inspection of pressurized components in pressurized water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bergemann, W.


    On the basis of the types of stress occurring in nuclear power plants and of practical results it has been shown that cracks in primary circuit components arise due to operating stresses in both the materials surfaces and the bulk of the materials. For this reason, volumetric materials testing is necessary in addition to surface testing. An outlook is given on the trends of volumetric testing. (author)

  4. Stability Tests of Positive Fractional Continuous-time Linear Systems with Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tadeusz Kaczorek


    Full Text Available Necessary and sufficient conditions for the asymptotic stability of positive fractional continuous-time linear systems with many delays are established. It is shown that: 1 the asymptotic stability of the positive fractional system is independent of their delays, 2 the checking of the asymptotic stability of the positive fractional systems with delays can be reduced to checking of the asymptotic stability of positive standard linear systems without delays.

  5. Marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania: Trends, interannual variability, and predictability (United States)

    Oliver, Eric C. J.; Lago, Véronique; Hobday, Alistair J.; Holbrook, Neil J.; Ling, Scott D.; Mundy, Craig N.


    Surface waters off eastern Tasmania are a global warming hotspot. Here, mean temperatures have been rising over several decades at nearly four times the global average rate, with concomitant changes in extreme temperatures - marine heatwaves. These changes have recently caused the marine biodiversity, fisheries and aquaculture industries off Tasmania's east coast to come under stress. In this study we quantify the long-term trends, variability and predictability of marine heatwaves off eastern Tasmania. We use a high-resolution ocean model for Tasmania's eastern continental shelf. The ocean state over the 1993-2015 period is hindcast, providing daily estimates of the three-dimensional temperature and circulation fields. Marine heatwaves are identified at the surface and subsurface from ocean temperature time series using a consistent definition. Trends in marine heatwave frequency are positive nearly everywhere and annual marine heatwave days and penetration depths indicate significant positive changes, particularly off southeastern Tasmania. A decomposition into modes of variability indicates that the East Australian Current is the dominant driver of marine heatwaves across the domain. Self-organising maps are used to identify 12 marine heatwave types, each with its own regionality, seasonality, and associated large-scale oceanic and atmospheric circulation patterns. The implications of this work for marine ecosystems and their management were revealed through review of past impacts and stakeholder discussions regarding use of these data.

  6. Different trends in extreme and median surface aerosol extinction coefficients over China inferred from quality-controlled visibility data (United States)

    Li, Jing; Li, Chengcai; Zhao, Chunsheng


    Although the temporal changes in aerosol properties have been widely investigated, the majority of studies has focused on average conditions without much emphasis on the extremes. However, the latter can be more important in terms of human health and climate change. This study uses a previously validated, quality-controlled visibility dataset to investigate the long-term trends (expressed in terms of relative changes) in extreme surface aerosol extinction coefficient (AEC) over China and compares them with the median trends. Two methods are used to independently evaluate the trends, which arrive at consistent results. The signs of extreme and median trends are generally coherent, whereas their magnitudes show distinct spatial and temporal differences. In the 1980s, an overall positive trend is found throughout China with the extreme trend exceeding the mean trend, except for northwest China and the North China Plain. In the 1990s, AEC over northeast and northwest China started to decline while the rest of the country still exhibited an increase. The extreme trends continued to dominate in the south while they yielded to the mean trend in the north. After the year 2000, the extreme trend became weaker than the mean trend overall in terms of both the magnitude and significance level. The annual trend can be primarily attributed to winter and fall trends. The results suggest that the decadal changes in pollution in China may be governed by different mechanisms. Synoptic conditions that often result in extreme air quality changes might have dominated in the 1980s, whereas emission increase might have been the main factor for the 2000s.

  7. Supporting Seamful Development of Positioning Applications through Model Based Translucent Middleware

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jakob Langdal

    middleware, and how that middleware can provide developers with methods for controlling application qualities that are related to the positioning process. One key challenge is to understand how to support application development in a heterogeneous domain like that of positioning. Recent trends in application...... middleware used to support application development. We transfer the concept of tactics from the field of software architecture and apply it to specific qualities related to position based applications. We further argue that many of these tactics can be implemented as policies that can be enforced......Positioning technologies are becoming ever more pervasive, and they are used for a growing number of applications in a broad range of fields. We aim to support software developers who create position based applications. More specifically, how support can be provided through the use of specialized...

  8. Trends in der IT-Sicherheit (United States)

    Eckert, Claudia

    Ich möchte Ihnen einen Überblick geben über Trends, Challenges, offene Fragestellungen sowie Lösungsansätze aus dem Bereich der IT-Sicherheit. Meine Vorredner haben mir schon eine wunderbare Basis dafür geschaffen, indem sie wichtige Trends im Bereich IT bereits angesprochen haben. Deshalb werde ich auf diese Trends, nämlich das Internet of Things and Services nur noch einmal kurz eingehen, um daran dann die IT-Sicherheitsthemen, die sich aus diesen IT-Trends ergeben, zu skizzieren und anschließend Lösungen vorstellen, die insbesondere im Forschungsumfeld entwickelt werden, aber schon reif sind, auch in die unternehmerische Praxis übernommen zu werden.

  9. The impact of area-based initiatives on physical activity trends in deprived areas; a quasi-experimental evaluation of the Dutch District Approach. (United States)

    Kramer, Daniëlle; Droomers, Mariël; Jongeneel-Grimen, Birthe; Wingen, Marleen; Stronks, Karien; Kunst, Anton E


    Numerous area-based initiatives (ABIs) have been implemented in deprived neighbourhoods across Europe. These large-scale initiatives aim to tackle the socio-economic and environmental problems in these areas that might influence physical activity (PA). There is little robust evidence of their impact on PA. This study aimed to assess the impact of a Dutch ABI called the District Approach on trends in leisure-time PA in deprived districts. Repeated cross-sectional data on 48401 adults across the Netherlands were obtained from the Integrated Survey on Household Living Conditions (POLS) 2004-2011. 1517 of these adults resided in deprived target districts and 46884 adults resided elsewhere in the Netherlands. In a quasi-experimental interrupted time-series design, multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to assess trends in leisure-time walking, cycling, and sports before and during the intervention. Trends in deprived target districts were compared with trends in various control groups. The role of the intensity of environmental interventions was also assessed. Deprived target districts showed a significantly positive change in walking trend between the pre-intervention and intervention period. The trend change in the deprived target districts was significantly larger compared to the rest of the Netherlands, but not compared to other deprived districts. For cycling and sports, neither deprived districts nor control districts showed a significant trend change. For all leisure-time PA outcomes, trend changes were not related to the intensity of environmental interventions in the deprived target districts. Some evidence was found to suggest that ABIs like the District Approach have a positive impact on leisure-time PA in deprived districts, regardless of the intensity of environmental interventions.

  10. Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuanji Wang


    Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

  11. Assessing Woody Vegetation Trends in Sahelian Drylands Using MODIS Based Seasonal Metrics (United States)

    Brandt, Martin; Hiernaux, Pierre; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Mbow, Cheikh; Kergoat, Laurent; Tagesson, Torbern; Ibrahim, Yahaya Z.; Wele, Abdoulaye; Tucker, Compton J.; Fensholt, Rasmus


    Woody plants play a major role for the resilience of drylands and in peoples' livelihoods. However, due to their scattered distribution, quantifying and monitoring woody cover over space and time is challenging. We develop a phenology driven model and train/validate MODIS (MCD43A4, 500m) derived metrics with 178 ground observations from Niger, Senegal and Mali to estimate woody cover trends from 2000 to 2014 over the entire Sahel. The annual woody cover estimation at 500 m scale is fairly accurate with an RMSE of 4.3 (woody cover %) and r(exp 2) = 0.74. Over the 15 year period we observed an average increase of 1.7 (+/- 5.0) woody cover (%) with large spatial differences: No clear change can be observed in densely populated areas (0.2 +/- 4.2), whereas a positive change is seen in sparsely populated areas (2.1 +/- 5.2). Woody cover is generally stable in cropland areas (0.9 +/- 4.6), reflecting the protective management of parkland trees by the farmers. Positive changes are observed in savannas (2.5 +/- 5.4) and woodland areas (3.9 +/- 7.3). The major pattern of woody cover change reveals strong increases in the sparsely populated Sahel zones of eastern Senegal, western Mali and central Chad, but a decreasing trend is observed in the densely populated western parts of Senegal, northern Nigeria, Sudan and southwestern Niger. This decrease is often local and limited to woodlands, being an indication of ongoing expansion of cultivated areas and selective logging.We show that an overall positive trend is found in areas of low anthropogenic pressure demonstrating the potential of these ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, if not over-utilized. Taken together, our results provide an unprecedented synthesis of woody cover dynamics in theSahel, and point to land use and human population density as important drivers, however only partially and locally offsetting a general post-drought increase.

  12. On the structural position of non-peripheral adjunct clauses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lobo


    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the structural position occupied by a subset of adjunct clauses, namely those which can occur in final position without a special intonational break. After a definition of the structures to be considered, it will be shown that the classical assumption according to which they are generated as adjuncts is empirically superior to the adjunct-as-complement analysis (cf. Larson 1988; 1990, and to more recent analyses, which follow an antisymmetric framework (cf. Kayne 1994. It will also be shown that a base generation account of preverbal adverbial clauses is to be preferred over a movement analysis on the basis of empirical data, and in conformity with theoretical economy assumptions (Merge over Move.

  13. 38 CFR 3.370 - Pulmonary tuberculosis shown by X-ray in active service. (United States)


    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Pulmonary tuberculosis... Rating Considerations Relative to Specific Diseases § 3.370 Pulmonary tuberculosis shown by X-ray in... connection for pulmonary tuberculosis. When under consideration, all available service department films and...

  14. A Context-Aware Model to Provide Positioning in Disaster Relief Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Moreno


    Full Text Available The effectiveness of the work performed during disaster relief efforts is highly dependent on the coordination of activities conducted by the first responders deployed in the affected area. Such coordination, in turn, depends on an appropriate management of geo-referenced information. Therefore, enabling first responders to count on positioning capabilities during these activities is vital to increase the effectiveness of the response process. The positioning methods used in this scenario must assume a lack of infrastructure-based communication and electrical energy, which usually characterizes affected areas. Although positioning systems such as the Global Positioning System (GPS have been shown to be useful, we cannot assume that all devices deployed in the area (or most of them will have positioning capabilities by themselves. Typically, many first responders carry devices that are not capable of performing positioning on their own, but that require such a service. In order to help increase the positioning capability of first responders in disaster-affected areas, this paper presents a context-aware positioning model that allows mobile devices to estimate their position based on information gathered from their surroundings. The performance of the proposed model was evaluated using simulations, and the obtained results show that mobile devices without positioning capabilities were able to use the model to estimate their position. Moreover, the accuracy of the positioning model has been shown to be suitable for conducting most first response activities.

  15. Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements (United States)

    Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh


    Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

  16. A global single-sensor analysis of 2002-2011 tropospheric nitrogen dioxide trends observed from space (United States)

    Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.


    A global nine-year archive of monthly tropospheric NO2 data acquired by the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) instrument was analyzed with respect to trends between August 2002 and August 2011. In the past, similar studies relied on combining data from multiple sensors; however, the length of the SCIAMACHY data set now for the first time allows utilization of a consistent time series from just a single sensor for mapping NO2 trends at comparatively high horizontal resolution (0.25°). This study provides an updated analysis of global patterns in NO2 trends and finds that previously reported decreases in tropospheric NO2 over Europe and the United States as well as strong increases over China and several megacities in Asia have continued in recent years. Positive trends of up to 4.05 (±0.41) × 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 and up to 19.7 (±1.9) % yr-1 were found over China, with the regional mean trend being 7.3 (±3.1) % yr-1. The megacity with the most rapid relative increase was found to be Dhaka in Bangladesh. Subsequently focusing on Europe, the study further analyzes trends by country and finds significantly decreasing trends for seven countries ranging from -3.0 (±1.6) % yr-1 to -4.5 (±2.3) % yr-1. A comparison of the satellite data with station data indicates that the trends derived from both sources show substantial differences on the station scale, i.e., when comparing a station trend directly with the equivalent satellite-derived trend at the same location, but provide quite similar large-scale spatial patterns. Finally, the SCIAMACHY-derived NO2 trends are compared with equivalent trends in NO2concentration computed using the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) model. The results show that the spatial patterns in trends computed from both data sources mostly agree in Central and Western Europe, whereas substantial differences

  17. Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (United States)

    Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo


    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

  18. Global fertility and population trends. (United States)

    Bongaarts, John


    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  19. The long-term trends (1982-2006) in vegetation greenness of the alpine ecosystem in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Wang, Cuizhen; Ji, Lei; Li, Jing; Wang, Kun; Dai, Lin


    The increased rate of annual temperature in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau exceeded all other areas of the same latitude in recent decades. The influence of the warming climate on the alpine ecosystem of the plateau was distinct. An analysis of alpine vegetation under changes in climatic conditions was conducted in this study. This was done through an examination of vegetation greenness and its relationship with climate variability using the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer satellite imagery and climate datasets. Vegetation in the plateau experienced a positive trend in greenness, with 18.0 % of the vegetated areas exhibiting significantly positive trends, which were primarily located in the eastern and southwestern parts of the plateau. In grasslands, 25.8 % of meadows and 14.1 % of steppes exhibited significant upward trends. In contrast, the broadleaf forests experienced a trend of degradation. Temperature, particularly summer temperature, was the primary factor promoting the vegetation growth in the plateau. The wetter and warmer climate in the east contributed to the favorable conditions for vegetation. The alpine meadow was mostly sensitive to temperature, while the steppes were sensitive to both temperature and precipitation. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to vegetation growth in the alpine region, the rising temperature coupled with reduced precipitation in the south did not favor vegetation growth due to low humidity and poor soil moisture conditions.

  20. Interpreting time trends and biomagnification of PCBs in the Baltic region using the equilibrium lipid partitioning approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nfon, Erick; Cousins, Ian T.


    Multi-year monitoring data for PCBs in abiotic media and biota collected from the Baltic region were compiled into a database and analyzed using the equilibrium lipid partitioning (ELP) approach to study temporal trends as well as to investigate food web biomagnification. Statistically significant reductions in ELP concentrations between 1987 and 2001 were observed in guillemots, air, and some fish species and a general, but not always statistically significant decline in concentrations was observed throughout the Baltic ecosystem. Estimated clearance half-lives ranged from 2.7-10.7 years. The database contained concentrations for a range of different Baltic species, which comprise a well-known Baltic food web. It was possible to derive the trophic position of the species in this food web and relate them to ELP concentrations. A significant positive correlation between ELP concentrations and trophic position was obtained. Estimated food web magnification factors ranged between 1.9 and 5.1 for selected congeners. - The equilibrium lipid partitioning approach is applied to a large Baltic database of PCB concentrations in abiotic and biota media to investigate time trends and biomagnification

  1. FOXP3 positive regulatory T-cells in cutaneous and systemic CD30 positive T-cell lymphoproliferations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gjerdrum, Lise Mette; Woetmann, Anders; Ødum, Niels


    for FOXP3 expression in tumour cells and tumour infiltrating Tregs. Labelling of a majority of the neoplastic cells was seen in one case of C-ALCL. Another three cases (one LyP and two C-ALCL) displayed weak labelling of very occasional atypical T-cells. In the remaining 38 cases the atypical lymphoid...... infiltrate was FOXP3 negative. By contrast, all biopsies contained tumour infiltrating FOXP3-positive Tregs. Significant higher numbers were recorded in ALK negative S-ALCL and LyP than in C-ALCL and S-ALCL positive for ALK. In conclusion, it is shown that FOXP3 expression in cutaneous and systemic CD30...

  2. Occupational Trends and Program Priorities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dan Rosenthal


    Full Text Available Institutions of higher education that respond to the economic base in their region will remain competitive and be better positioned to obtain public funds and donor support. In addition to mandated program viability standards based on measures such as graduation rate, individual institutions and state coordinating boards can use ten-year occupational trend data to assess future program viability. We used an occupational demand model to determine whether academic programs can meet projected statewide needs for high demand and high growth occupations. For example, computer engineering, the highest growth rate occupation in Alabama, is projected to have 365 annual average job openings, with 93.6% total growth over ten years. But only 46 computer engineering majors graduate annually from all Alabama institutions of higher education. We recommend using an occupational demand model as a planning tool, decision-making tool, and catalyst for collaborative initiatives.

  3. 11-Year Trends in Pregnancy-Related Health Indicators in Maine, 2000–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E. Harris


    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to understand health and demographic trends among mothers and infants in Maine relative to the goals of Healthy People 2020. Pregnancy risk assessment monitoring system (PRAMS data from Maine for 2000–2010 were used to determine yearly values of pregnancy-related variables. Means (for continuous variables and percentages (for categorical variables were calculated using the survey procedures in SAS. Linear trend analysis was applied with study year as the independent variable. The slope and significance of the trend were then calculated. Over the study period, new mothers in Maine became better educated but the fraction of households with incomes <$20,000/year remained stagnant. Maternal prepregnancy BMI increased. Average pregnancy weight gain decreased but the number of women whose pregnancy weight gain was within the recommended range was unchanged. The rates of smoking and alcohol consumption (before and during pregnancy increased. The Caesarean section rate rose and the fraction of infants born premature (<37 wks gestation or underweight (<2500 gms remained unchanged. The fraction of infants who were breast-fed increased. These results suggest that, despite some positive trends, Maine faces significant challenges in meeting Healthy People 2020 goals.

  4. Comparison of embrittlement trend curves to high fluence surveillance results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bogaert, A.S.; Gerard, R.; Chaouadi, R.


    In the regulatory justification of the integrity of the reactor pressure vessels (RPV) for long term operation, use is made of predictive formulas (also called trend curves) to evaluate the RPV embrittlement (expressed in terms of RTNDT shifts) in function of fluence, chemical composition and in some cases temperature, neutron flux or product form. It has been shown recently that some of the existing or proposed trend curves tend to underpredict high dose embrittlement. Due to the scarcity of representative surveillance data at high dose, some test reactor results were used in these evaluations and raise the issue of representativeness of the accelerated test reactor irradiations (dose rate effects). In Belgium the surveillance capsules withdrawal schedule was modified in the nineties in order to obtain results corresponding to 60 years of operation or more with the initial surveillance program. Some of these results are already available and offer a good opportunity to test the validity of the predictive formulas at high dose. In addition, advanced surveillance methods are used in Belgium like the Master Curve, increased tensile tests, and microstructural investigations. These techniques made it possible to show the conservatism of the regulatory approach and to demonstrate increased margins, especially for the first generation units. In this paper the surveillance results are compared to different predictive formulas, as well as to an engineering hardening model developed at SCK.CEN. Generally accepted property-to-property correlations are critically revisited. Conclusions are made on the reliability and applicability of the embrittlement trend curves. (authors)

  5. Point processes and the position distribution of infinite boson systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fichtner, K.H.; Freudenberg, W.


    It is shown that to each locally normal state of a boson system one can associate a point process that can be interpreted as the position distribution of the state. The point process contains all information one can get by position measurements and is determined by the latter. On the other hand, to each so-called Σ/sup c/-point process Q they relate a locally normal state with position distribution Q

  6. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality. (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza


    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  7. Multiple long-term trends and trend reversals dominate environmental conditions in a man-made freshwater reservoir. (United States)

    Znachor, Petr; Nedoma, Jiří; Hejzlar, Josef; Seďa, Jaromír; Kopáček, Jiří; Boukal, David; Mrkvička, Tomáš


    Man-made reservoirs are common across the world and provide a wide range of ecological services. Environmental conditions in riverine reservoirs are affected by the changing climate, catchment-wide processes and manipulations with the water level, and water abstraction from the reservoir. Long-term trends of environmental conditions in reservoirs thus reflect a wider range of drivers in comparison to lakes, which makes the understanding of reservoir dynamics more challenging. We analysed a 32-year time series of 36 environmental variables characterising weather, land use in the catchment, reservoir hydrochemistry, hydrology and light availability in the small, canyon-shaped Římov Reservoir in the Czech Republic to detect underlying trends, trend reversals and regime shifts. To do so, we fitted linear and piecewise linear regression and a regime shift model to the time series of mean annual values of each variable and to principal components produced by Principal Component Analysis. Models were weighted and ranked using Akaike information criterion and the model selection approach. Most environmental variables exhibited temporal changes that included time-varying trends and trend reversals. For instance, dissolved organic carbon showed a linear increasing trend while nitrate concentration or conductivity exemplified trend reversal. All trend reversals and cessations of temporal trends in reservoir hydrochemistry (except total phosphorus concentrations) occurred in the late 1980s and during 1990s as a consequence of dramatic socioeconomic changes. After a series of heavy rains in the late 1990s, an administrative decision to increase the flood-retention volume of the reservoir resulted in a significant regime shift in reservoir hydraulic conditions in 1999. Our analyses also highlight the utility of the model selection framework, based on relatively simple extensions of linear regression, to describe temporal trends in reservoir characteristics. This approach can

  8. Whats the Rap about Ecstasy? Popular Music Lyrics and Drug Trends among American Youth (United States)

    Diamond, Sarah; Bermudez, Rey; Schensul, Jean


    Trends in ecstasy use in America during the past decade were reflected in mainstream, American rap-music lyrics between 1996 and 2003. Drawing on communication and cultural studies theory, this article provides a content analysis of 69 rap songs mentioning the club drug ecstasy. The songs are coded according to whether they contain positive, mixed…

  9. Sensitivity analysis of monthly reference crop evapotranspiration trends in Iran: a qualitative approach (United States)

    Mosaedi, Abolfazl; Ghabaei Sough, Mohammad; Sadeghi, Sayed-Hossein; Mooshakhian, Yousof; Bannayan, Mohammad


    The main objective of this study was to analyze the sensitivity of the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) trends to key climatic factors (minimum and maximum air temperature ( T max and T min), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours ( t sun), and wind speed ( U 2)) in Iran by applying a qualitative detrended method, rather than the historical mathematical approach. Meteorological data for the period of 1963-2007 from five synoptic stations with different climatic characteristics, including Mashhad (mountains), Tabriz (mountains), Tehran (semi-desert), Anzali (coastal wet), and Shiraz (semi-mountains) were used to address this objective. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to assess the trends of ETo and the climatic variables. The results indicated a significant increasing trend of the monthly ETo for Mashhad and Tabriz for most part of the year while the opposite conclusion was drawn for Tehran, Anzali, and Shiraz. Based on the detrended method, RH and U 2 were the two main variables enhancing the negative ETo trends in Tehran and Anzali stations whereas U 2 and temperature were responsible for this observation in Shiraz. On the other hand, the main meteorological variables affecting the significant positive trend of ETo were RH and t sun in Tabriz and T min, RH, and U 2 in Mashhad. Although a relative agreement was observed in terms of identifying one of the first two key climatic variables affecting the ETo trend, the qualitative and the quantitative sensitivity analysis solutions did never coincide. Further research is needed to evaluate this interesting finding for other geographic locations, and also to search for the major causes of this discrepancy.

  10. Two-dimensional position-sensitive detectors for small-angle neutron scattering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McElhaney, S.A.; Vandermolen, R.I.


    In this paper, various detectors available for small angle neutron scattering (SANS) are discussed, along with some current developments being actively pursued. A section has been included to outline the various methodologies of position encoding/decoding with discussions on trends and limitations. Computer software/hardware vary greatly from institute and experiment and only a general discussion is given to this area. 85 refs., 33 figs

  11. Googling trends in conservation biology. (United States)

    Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc


    Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  12. A prospective international observational prevalence study on prone positioning of ARDS patients: the APRONET (ARDS Prone Position Network) study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Guérin, C.; Beuret, P.; Constantin, J. M.; Bellani, G.; Garcia-Olivares, P.; Roca, O.; Meertens, J. H.; Maia, P. Azevedo; Becher, T.; Peterson, J.; Larsson, A.; Gurjar, M.; Hajjej, Z.; Kovari, F.; Assiri, A. H.; Mainas, E.; Hasan, M. S.; Morocho-Tutillo, D. R.; Baboi, L.; Chrétien, J. M.; François, G.; Ayzac, L.; Chen, L.; Brochard, L.; Mercat, A.; Hajjej, Zied; Sellami, Walid; Ferjani, M.; Gurjar, Mohan; Assiri, Amer; Al Bshabshe, Ali; Almekhlafi, Ghaleb; Mandourah, Yasser; Hasan, Mohd Shahnaz; Rai, Vineya; Marzida, M.; Corcoles Gonzalez, Virgilio; Sanchez Iniesta, Rafael; Garcia, Pablo; Garcia-Montesinos de La Peña, Manuel; Garcia Herrera, Adriana; Roca, Oriol; Garcia-de-Acilu, Marina; Masclans Enviz, Joan Ramon; Mancebo, Jordi; Heili, Sarah; Artigas Raventos, Antonio; Blanch Torra, Lluís; Roche-Campo, Ferran; Schultz, Marcus


    While prone positioning (PP) has been shown to improve patient survival in moderate to severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) patients, the rate of application of PP in clinical practice still appears low. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of use of PP in ARDS patients (primary

  13. Trend Monitoring and Forecasting (United States)


    including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

  14. Time trends in absolute and relative socioeconomic inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in northern Sweden. (United States)

    Szilcz, Máté; Mosquera, Paola A; Sebastián, Miguel San; Gustafsson, Per E


    The aim was to investigate the time trends in educational, occupational, and income-related inequalities in leisure time physical inactivity in 2006, 2010, and 2014 in northern Swedish women and men. This study was based on data obtained from the repeated cross-sectional Health on Equal Terms survey of 2006, 2010, and 2014. The analytical sample consisted of 20,667 (2006), 31,787 (2010), and 21,613 (2014) individuals, aged 16-84. Logistic regressions were used to model the probability of physical inactivity given a set of explanatory variables. Slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) were used as summary measures of the social gradient in physical inactivity. The linear trend in inequalities and difference between gender and years were estimated by interaction analyses. The year 2010 displayed the highest physical inactivity inequalities for all socioeconomic position indicators, but educational and occupational inequalities decreased in 2014. However, significant positive linear trends were found in absolute and relative income inequalities. Moreover, women had significantly higher RII of education in physical inactivity in 2014 and significantly higher SII and RII of income in physical inactivity in 2010, than did men in the same years. The recent reduction in educational and occupational inequalities following the high inequalities around the time of the great recession in 2010 suggests that the current policies might be fairly effective. However, to eventually alleviate inequities in physical inactivity, the focus of the researchers and policymakers should be directed toward the widening trends of income inequalities in physical inactivity.

  15. Anxiety management training for anxiety states: positive compared with negative self-statements. (United States)

    Ramm, E; Marks, I M; Yuksel, S; Stern, R S


    Twelve patients complaining of chronic free-floating anxiety, usually also with panic attacks, were assigned at random to treatment by six hour-long sessions of anxiety-management training, either with positive or with negative self-statements, given over six weeks. Patients in both treatment conditions improved, with a small trend favouring positive over negative self-instruction, especially at follow-up. It is unclear how much self-instruction, rather than therapeutic attention or mere passage of time, accounted for the bulk of the modest improvement obtained.

  16. Reproducibility of positive results for the detection of serum galactomannan by Platelia™ aspergillus EIA. (United States)

    Pedroza, Kelly C M C; de Matos, Sócrates B; de Moura, Daniel L; Oliveira, Mônica B B; Araújo, Marco A S; Nascimento, Roberto J M; Lima, Fernanda W M


    Galactomannan (GM) was recently included in consensus guidelines as an indirect mycological criterion for the diagnosis of invasive aspergillosis. Currently, there is an enzyme immunoassay available to detect GM in biological samples, the Platelia™ Aspergillus EIA. In this study, the reproducibility of positive results obtained using this assay was evaluated using serum samples from neutropenic patients. A trend toward lower values was observed, and 55 %(27/49) of positive results were negative after retesting. A low reproducibility of positive results for the detection of GM in serum was observed.

  17. Fifty years of fat: news coverage of trends that predate obesity prevalence. (United States)

    Davis, Brennan; Wansink, Brian


    Obesity prevalence has risen in fifty years. While people generally expect media mentions of health risks like obesity prevalence to follow health risk trends, food consumption trends may precede obesity prevalence trends. Therefore, this research investigates whether media mentions of food predate obesity prevalence. Fifty years of non-advertising articles in the New York Times (and 17 years for the London Times) are coded for the mention of less healthy (5 salty and 5 sweet snacks) and healthy (5 fruits and 5 vegetables) food items by year and then associated with annual obesity prevalence in subsequent years. Time-series generalized linear models test whether food-related mentions predate or postdate obesity prevalence in each country. United States obesity prevalence is positively associated with New York Times mentions of sweet snacks (b = 55.2, CI = 42.4 to 68.1, p = .000) and negatively associated with mentions of fruits (b = -71.28, CI -91.5 to -51.1, p = .000) and vegetables (b = -13.6, CI = -17.5 to -9.6, p = .000). Similar results are found for the United Kingdom and The London Times. Importantly, the "obesity followed mentions" models are stronger than the "obesity preceded mentions" models. It may be possible to estimate a nation's future obesity prevalence (e.g., three years from now) based on how frequently national media mention sweet snacks (positively related) and vegetables or fruits (negatively related) today. This may provide public health officials and epidemiologists with new tools to more quickly assess the effectiveness of current obesity interventions based on what is mentioned in the media today.

  18. Identification and analysis of recent temporal temperature trends for Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India (United States)

    Piyoosh, Atul Kant; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar


    Maximum and minimum temperatures (T max and T min) are indicators of changes in climate. In this study, observed and gridded T max and T min data of Dehradun are analyzed for the period 1901-2014. Observed data obtained from India Meteorological Department and National Institute of Hydrology, whereas gridded data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) were used. Efficacy of elevation-corrected CRU data was checked by cross validation using data of various stations at different elevations. In both the observed and gridded data, major change points were detected using Cumulative Sum chart. For T max, change points occur in the years 1974 and 1997, while, for T min, in 1959 and 1986. Statistical significance of trends was tested in three sub-periods based on change points using Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and linear regression (LR) method. It has been found that both the T max and T min have a sequence of rising, falling, and rising trends in sub-periods. Out of three different methods used for trend tests, MK and SS have indicated similar results, while LR method has also shown similar results for most of the cases. Root-mean-square error for actual and anomaly time series of CRU data was found to be within one standard deviation of observed data which indicates that the CRU data are very close to the observed data. The trends exhibited by CRU data were also found to be similar to the observed data. Thus, CRU temperature data may be quite useful for various studies in the regions of scarcity of observational data.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Альфия Равилевна Вагапова


    Full Text Available  The article studies various socialization trends in the Russian society and the use of the diachronic approach in the study of socialization. It presents a description and the idea of the main socialization trends and studies the reason why they appeared. A number of methodologies and techniques was used to detect the most popular trends and values in teenage, youth and young adult social environment, which are: 1 - social success and self-presentation (the study of the teenagers’ ideas of social success (n=40 has shown that like adults teenagers search the information space for successful models of self-presentation, which could lead to good social standing in the future; 2 - professional success (the study of the views of psychology students on their future career (n=51 showed the demand for successful young professionals existing in the society and possible solutions to the controversial problems and difficulties of present-day Russian society; 3 - the choice of the sphere of self-fulfillment (the author presents comparative data on family values among the sampling of students and young workers (n=56, studies the trends of self-fulfillment among the youth in various aspects of life and discovers that family is only viewed as one of the numerous opportunities and is less important than successful career. The author concludes that socialization is inseparable from the person’s social activity, personal identity and self-fulfillment in the society. The results of the study can be of practical use for psychological consultants and for devising socialization programmes. DOI:

  20. Automating Trend Analysis for Spacecraft Constellations (United States)

    Davis, George; Cooter, Miranda; Updike, Clark; Carey, Everett; Mackey, Jennifer; Rykowski, Timothy; Powers, Edward I. (Technical Monitor)


    Spacecraft trend analysis is a vital mission operations function performed by satellite controllers and engineers, who perform detailed analyses of engineering telemetry data to diagnose subsystem faults and to detect trends that may potentially lead to degraded subsystem performance or failure in the future. It is this latter function that is of greatest importance, for careful trending can often predict or detect events that may lead to a spacecraft's entry into safe-hold. Early prediction and detection of such events could result in the avoidance of, or rapid return to service from, spacecraft safing, which not only results in reduced recovery costs but also in a higher overall level of service for the satellite system. Contemporary spacecraft trending activities are manually intensive and are primarily performed diagnostically after a fault occurs, rather than proactively to predict its occurrence. They also tend to rely on information systems and software that are oudated when compared to current technologies. When coupled with the fact that flight operations teams often have limited resources, proactive trending opportunities are limited, and detailed trend analysis is often reserved for critical responses to safe holds or other on-orbit events such as maneuvers. While the contemporary trend analysis approach has sufficed for current single-spacecraft operations, it will be unfeasible for NASA's planned and proposed space science constellations. Missions such as the Dynamics, Reconnection and Configuration Observatory (DRACO), for example, are planning to launch as many as 100 'nanospacecraft' to form a homogenous constellation. A simple extrapolation of resources and manpower based on single-spacecraft operations suggests that trending for such a large spacecraft fleet will be unmanageable, unwieldy, and cost-prohibitive. It is therefore imperative that an approach to automating the spacecraft trend analysis function be studied, developed, and applied to

  1. Positive and negative ion mode comparison for the determination of DNA/peptide noncovalent binding sites through the formation of "three-body" noncovalent fragment ions. (United States)

    Brahim, Bessem; Tabet, Jean-Claude; Alves, Sandra


    Gas-phase fragmentation of single strand DNA-peptide noncovalent complexes is investigated in positive and negative electrospray ionization modes.Collision-induced dissociation experiments, performed on the positively charged noncovalent complex precursor ions, have confirmed the trend previously observed in negative ion mode, i.e. a high stability of noncovalent complexes containing very basic peptidic residues (i.e. R > K) and acidic nucleotide units (i.e. Thy units), certainly incoming from the existence of salt bridge interactions. Independent of the ion polarity, stable noncovalent complex precursor ions were found to dissociate preferentially through covalent bond cleavages of the partners without disrupting noncovalent interactions. The resulting DNA fragment ions were found to be still noncovalently linked to the peptides. Additionally, the losses of an internal nucleic fragment producing "three-body" noncovalent fragment ions were also observed in both ion polarities, demonstrating the spectacular salt bridge interaction stability. The identical fragmentation patterns (regardless of the relative fragment ion abundances) observed in both polarities have shown a common location of salt bridge interaction certainly preserved from solution. Nonetheless, most abundant noncovalent fragment ions (and particularly three-body ones) are observed from positively charged noncovalent complexes. Therefore, we assume that, independent of the preexisting salt bridge interaction and zwitterion structures, multiple covalent bond cleavages from single-stranded DNA/peptide complexes rely on an excess of positive charges in both electrospray ionization ion polarities.

  2. Revolutionary business trends in supply chain management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mijušković Veljko


    Full Text Available Contemporary turbulent business conditions in the era of high technology bring inherent rapid changes. In order to survive, the imperative set upon all market players is not the position of a follower but more of an anticipator and trend setter. These unexpected changes erase existing business models, traditional enterprise paradigms and customary philosophies. A business isolated in its way of seeing operations and unconnected with other strategic constituents within the supply chain is destined to fail. On the other hand, even those businesses that do get involved with contemporary trends are not automatically guaranteed with the market survival. The spirit of change must therefore be deeply integrated within the organization, so that the new 'mantra' could become strategic but also operative driver on all fronts of doing business, at all times. The goal of this paper is to try to illustrate and categorize comprehensive fundamental changes which are more and more present in the modern supply chains. The analysis shows that the spirit of business model changes is not a fiction but reality, thus their deepness truly revolutionizes the functioning of traditional supply chains. The first part of the paper shows actual market situation within the supply chains. 'Kaleidoscope of changes' in the chain shows that its operations have been altered compared to traditional way of doing business, having assimilated the fact that final customers identify multiple dimensions of value while choosing products or services. The market survival demands the perception and possession of all these dimensions. The second part explains the supply chain changes focusing on ten most important trends. Their implementation creates revolutionary effects compared to traditional business matrix. Finally, the third part, identifies key challenges and inhibitors that might emerge during the 'restructuring' of the traditional supply chains, as a real-life situation limitation

  3. Socioeconomic Differences and Trends in the Place of Death among Elderly People in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiaoli Cai


    Full Text Available China is facing a dramatic aging of its population. Little is known about the factors that influence the place of death and the trends in the place of death for elderly people in China. The purposes of this study were: (1 to examine the impact of the socioeconomic status (SES on place of death for elderly Chinese residents; and (2 to assess temporal trends in the place of death over the last 15 years. Data were derived from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS (1998–2012. Place-of-death as an outcome was dichotomized into either death at home or death outside the home. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine the impact of SES on place of death. The results showed that, of the 23,098 deaths during the study period, 87.78% occurred at home. The overall trend in home death has increased since 2005. SES was shown to be an important factor affecting place of death. The elderly with higher SES were more likely to die where health resources were concentrated, i.e., in a hospital or other type of institution. Our finding suggests that the trend towards a greater emphasis on death at home may call for the development of more supportive home care programs in China. Our finding also suggests that the socioeconomic differences in the place of death may be related to the availability of or access to health care services.

  4. Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (United States)

    Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.


    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

  5. The Information Aspect of Extremism and Terrorism and the Destructive Trends in the Mass Media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E V Nekrasova


    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the problem of destructive trends in modern Russian mass media as well as to the information component in the activities of extremist and terrorist organizations. The destructive trends in the mass media manifest themselves in the escalation of animosity, aggression, creation of the cult of violence and xenophobia moods. Terrorist organizations use the mass media for their own purposes: they create the atmosphere of fear and tension in society, recruit new followers, mainly among the youth, which is a serious problem. It is important to use the positive potential of the mass media to counteract extremism and terrorism.

  6. Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity (United States)

    Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.


    We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

  7. Trends and driving mechanism of land-use change in metropolitan areas of Pearl River Delta (United States)

    Chen, Feng-gui; Zhang, Hong-ou; Wang, Juan; Wu, Qi-tao


    Taking Pearl River Delta for an example this study focuses on the trends and the driving mechanism of land-use changes in metropolises, in order to achieve the fundamental objectives of LUCC study increasing the awareness on dynamics of global land-use and land-cover changes, and improving the ability of forecasting LUCC. By analyzing the land-use change in Pearl River Delta from 1996 to 2006, it is found that the differences among internal space are notable. By establishing time-sequence-curve with SPSS software, it is shown that trends of land-use change are very clear. With factor analysis on land-use change, the study summarizes four factors of driving mechanism, including factors of economic development level, regional industrial structure, demographic and agricultural structure adjustment, which impact land change in Pearl River Delta to a different extent.

  8. Regional trends in short-duration precipitation extremes: a flexible multivariate monotone quantile regression approach (United States)

    Cannon, Alex


    Estimating historical trends in short-duration rainfall extremes at regional and local scales is challenging due to low signal-to-noise ratios and the limited availability of homogenized observational data. In addition to being of scientific interest, trends in rainfall extremes are of practical importance, as their presence calls into question the stationarity assumptions that underpin traditional engineering and infrastructure design practice. Even with these fundamental challenges, increasingly complex questions are being asked about time series of extremes. For instance, users may not only want to know whether or not rainfall extremes have changed over time, they may also want information on the modulation of trends by large-scale climate modes or on the nonstationarity of trends (e.g., identifying hiatus periods or periods of accelerating positive trends). Efforts have thus been devoted to the development and application of more robust and powerful statistical estimators for regional and local scale trends. While a standard nonparametric method like the regional Mann-Kendall test, which tests for the presence of monotonic trends (i.e., strictly non-decreasing or non-increasing changes), makes fewer assumptions than parametric methods and pools information from stations within a region, it is not designed to visualize detected trends, include information from covariates, or answer questions about the rate of change in trends. As a remedy, monotone quantile regression (MQR) has been developed as a nonparametric alternative that can be used to estimate a common monotonic trend in extremes at multiple stations. Quantile regression makes efficient use of data by directly estimating conditional quantiles based on information from all rainfall data in a region, i.e., without having to precompute the sample quantiles. The MQR method is also flexible and can be used to visualize and analyze the nonlinearity of the detected trend. However, it is fundamentally a

  9. Causes of spring vegetation growth trends in the northern mid–high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mao Jiafu; Shi Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E; Piao Shilong; Wang Xuhui


    The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial–temporal patterns of spring (April–May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid–high latitudes (NMH) (>25°N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI–temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity. (letter)

  10. Causes of spring vegetation greenness trends in the northern mid-high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, Jiafu [ORNL; Shi, Xiaoying [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Shilong, Dr. Piao [Peking University; Xuhui, Dr. Wang [Peking University


    The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial temporal patterns of spring (April May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid high latitudes (NMH) (>25 N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO2. Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity.

  11. Using scaling relations to understand trends in the catalytic activity of transition metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, G; Bligaard, T; Abild-Pedersen, F; Noerskov, J K


    A method is developed to estimate the potential energy diagram for a full catalytic reaction for a range of late transition metals on the basis of a calculation (or an experimental determination) for a single metal. The method, which employs scaling relations between adsorption energies, is illustrated by calculating the potential energy diagram for the methanation reaction and ammonia synthesis for 11 different metals on the basis of results calculated for Ru. It is also shown that considering the free energy diagram for the reactions, under typical industrial conditions, provides additional insight into reactivity trends

  12. Trends in food choice and nutrition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G


    'Trends' in the way we eat are discussed in this chapter. Three potential trends are taken as points of departure, namely health concerns, convenience, and process characteristics. Some of the evidence provided may not necessarily be evidence of a trend itself, but can be regarded as indicators o...

  13. Effects of diurnal adjustment on biases and trends derived from inter-sensor calibrated AMSU-A data (United States)

    Chen, H.; Zou, X.; Qin, Z.


    Measurements of brightness temperatures from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) temperature sounding instruments onboard NOAA Polarorbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES) have been extensively used for studying atmospheric temperature trends over the past several decades. Intersensor biases, orbital drifts and diurnal variations of atmospheric and surface temperatures must be considered before using a merged long-term time series of AMSU-A measurements from NOAA-15, -18, -19 and MetOp-A.We study the impacts of the orbital drift and orbital differences of local equator crossing times (LECTs) on temperature trends derivable from AMSU-A using near-nadir observations from NOAA-15, NOAA-18, NOAA-19, and MetOp-A during 1998-2014 over the Amazon rainforest. The double difference method is firstly applied to estimation of inter-sensor biases between any two satellites during their overlapping time period. The inter-calibrated observations are then used to generate a monthly mean diurnal cycle of brightness temperature for each AMSU-A channel. A diurnal correction is finally applied each channel to obtain AMSU-A data valid at the same local time. Impacts of the inter-sensor bias correction and diurnal correction on the AMSU-A derived long-term atmospheric temperature trends are separately quantified and compared with those derived from original data. It is shown that the orbital drift and differences of LECTamong different POESs induce a large uncertainty in AMSU-A derived long-term warming/cooling trends. After applying an inter-sensor bias correction and a diurnal correction, the warming trends at different local times, which are approximately the same, are smaller by half than the trends derived without applying these corrections.

  14. Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data. (United States)

    Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A


    The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a

  15. Legal drug content in music video programs shown on Australian television on saturday mornings. (United States)

    Johnson, Rebecca; Croager, Emma; Pratt, Iain S; Khoo, Natalie


    To examine the extent to which legal drug references (alcohol and tobacco) are present in the music video clips shown on two music video programs broadcast in Australia on Saturday mornings. Further, to examine the music genres in which the references appeared and the dominant messages associated with the references. Music video clips shown on the music video programs 'Rage' (ABC TV) and [V] 'Music Video Chart' (Channel [V]) were viewed over 8 weeks from August 2011 to October 2011 and the number of clips containing verbal and/or visual drug references in each program was counted. The songs were classified by genre and the dominant messages associated with drug references were also classified and analysed. A considerable proportion of music videos (approximately one-third) contained drug references. Alcohol featured in 95% of the music videos that contained drug references. References to alcohol generally associated it with fun and humour, and alcohol and tobacco were both overwhelmingly presented in contexts that encouraged, rather than discouraged, their use. In Australia, Saturday morning is generally considered a children's television viewing timeslot, and several broadcaster Codes of Practice dictate that programs shown on Saturday mornings must be appropriate for viewing by audiences of all ages. Despite this, our findings show that music video programs aired on Saturday mornings contain a considerable level of drug-related content.

  16. Nuclear and radiation techniques - state of art and development trends; Techniki jadrowe i radiacyjne - stan obecny oraz kierunki rozwoju

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chmielewski, A.G. [Institute of Nuclear Chemistry and Technology, Warsaw (Poland)


    The state of art and development trends of nuclear and radiation techniques in Poland and worldwide have been presented. Among them the radiometric gages, radiation technologies, radiotracer methods and measuring systems for pipeline and vessels, brightness control have been described and their applications in industry, agriculture, health and environment protection have been shown and discussed. 35 refs, 1 fig.

  17. Syphilis Trends among Men Who Have Sex with Men in the United States and Western Europe: A Systematic Review of Trend Studies Published between 2004 and 2015 (United States)

    Abara, Winston E.; Hess, Kristen L.; Neblett Fanfair, Robyn; Bernstein, Kyle T.; Paz-Bailey, Gabriela


    Globally, men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately burdened with syphilis. This review describes the published literature on trends in syphilis infections among MSM in the US and Western Europe from 1998, the period with the fewest syphilis infections in both geographical areas, onwards. We also describe disparities in syphilis trends among various sub-populations of MSM. We searched electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Global Health, PsychInfo, CAB Abstracts, CINAHL, Sociological Abstracts, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and LILACS) for peer-reviewed journal articles that were published between January 2004 and June 2015 and reported on syphilis cases among MSM at multiple time points from 1998 onwards. Ten articles (12 syphilis trend studies/reports) from the US and eight articles (12 syphilis trend studies/reports) from Western Europe were identified and included in this review. Taken together, our findings indicate an increase in the numbers and rates (per 100,000) of syphilis infections among MSM in the US and Western Europe since 1998. Disparities in the syphilis trends among MSM were also noted, with greater increases observed among HIV-positive MSM than HIV-negative MSM in both the US and Western Europe. In the US, racial minority MSM and MSM between 20 and 29 years accounted for the greatest increases in syphilis infections over time whereas White MSM accounted for most syphilis infections over time in Western Europe. Multiple strategies, including strengthening and targeting current syphilis screening and testing programs, and the prompt treatment of syphilis cases are warranted to address the increase in syphilis infections among all MSM in the US and Western Europe, but particularly among HIV-infected MSM, racial minority MSM, and young MSM in the US. PMID:27447943

  18. Linear trend and climate response of five-needle pines in the western United States related to treeline proximity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kipfmueller, K.F. [Minnesota Univ., Minneapolis, MN (United States). Dept. of Geography; Salzer, M.W. [Arizona Univ., Tucson, AZ (United States). Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research


    This study investigated sixty-six 5-needle pine growth chronologies from 1896 to their end years in order to identify potential patterns related to linear trends in ring width. Individual chronology responses to climate were also evaluated by comparing the chronologies with seasonal temperature and precipitation data from 1896 to the present date. Chronologies exhibiting similar patterns of climate response were grouped in order to examine the role of treeline proximity on climate-growth relationships. Ring width measurements for pine sites located in the western United States were obtained from the International Tree Ring Data Bank. Growth indices were compared among all sites in order to assess the relative strength of common signals with increasing distance. Pearson correlations were used to calculate linear trends for each chronology. A cluster analysis of climate response patterns indicated that most chronologies positively associated with temperatures were located near upper treeline and contained significant positive linear trends. The study suggested that 5-needle pine treeline chronologies may be used as predictors in temperature reconstructions. However, care must be taken to determine that collection sites have not been impacted by disturbances such as fire or insect outbreaks. 35 refs., 2 tabs., 5 figs.

  19. Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics (United States)

    Toihir, Abdoulwahab Mohamed; Portafaix, Thierry; Sivakumar, Venkataraman; Bencherif, Hassan; Pazmiño, Andréa; Bègue, Nelson


    explained by the effect of QBO. Annual ozone oscillations are more apparent at two different altitude ranges (below 24 km and in the 27-30 km altitude band) over the tropical and subtropical regions, while the semi-annual oscillations are more significant over the 27-30 km altitude range in the tropical and equatorial regions. The estimated trend in TCO is positive and not significant and corresponds to a variation of ˜ 1.34±0.50 % decade-1 (averaged over the three regions). The trend estimated within the equatorial region (0-15° S) is less than 1 % per decade, while it is assessed at more than 1.5 % decade-1 for all the sites located southward of 17° S. With regard to the vertical distribution of trend estimates, a positive trend in ozone concentration is obtained in the 22-30 km altitude range, while a delay in ozone improvement is apparent in the UT-LS (upper troposphere-lower stratosphere) below 22 km. This is especially noticeable at approximately 19 km, where a negative value is observed in the tropical regions.

  20. Signal trend identification with fuzzy methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reifman, J.; Tsoukalas, L. H.; Wang, X.; Wei, T. Y. C.


    A fuzzy-logic-based methodology for on-line signal trend identification is introduced. Although signal trend identification is complicated by the presence of noise, fuzzy logic can help capture important features of on-line signals and classify incoming power plant signals into increasing, decreasing and steady-state trend categories. In order to verify the methodology, a code named PROTREN is developed and tested using plant data. The results indicate that the code is capable of detecting transients accurately, identifying trends reliably, and not misinterpreting a steady-state signal as a transient one

  1. 1990-2016 surface solar radiation variability and trend over the Piedmont region (northwest Italy) (United States)

    Manara, Veronica; Bassi, Manuela; Brunetti, Michele; Cagnazzi, Barbara; Maugeri, Maurizio


    A new surface solar radiation database of 74 daily series is set up for the Piedmont region (northwest Italy) for the 1990-2016 period. All the series are subjected to a detailed quality control, homogenization and gap-filling procedure and are transformed into relative annual/seasonal anomaly series. Finally, a gridded version (0.5°×0.5°) of the database is generated. The resulting series show an increasing tendency of about + 2.5% per decade at annual scale, with strongest trend in autumn (+ 4% per decade). The only exception is winter, showing a negative but not significant trend. Considering the plain and mountain mean series, the trends are more intense for low than for high elevations with a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.03% per decade per 100 m at annual scale and values up to - 0.07% per decade per 100 m in spring. Focusing on clear days only (selected by CM SAF ClOud fractional cover dataset from METeosat first and second generation—Edition 1 satellite data over the 1991-2015 period), trend significance strongly increases and both low and high elevation records exhibit a positive trend in all seasons. However, the trends result slightly lower than for all-sky days (with the only exception of winter). The differences observed under clear-sky conditions between low and high elevations are more pronounced in winter, where the trend shows a negative vertical gradient of about - 0.1% per decade every 100 m. Overall, this paper shows how a high station density allows performing a more detailed quality control thanks to the higher performances in detecting the inhomogeneities with higher data availability and capturing regional peculiarities otherwise impossible to observe.

  2. News trends and web search query of HIV/AIDS in Hong Kong (United States)

    Chiu, Alice P. Y.; Lin, Qianying


    Background The HIV epidemic in Hong Kong has worsened in recent years, with major contributions from high-risk subgroup of men who have sex with men (MSM). Internet use is prevalent among the majority of the local population, where they sought health information online. This study examines the impacts of HIV/AIDS and MSM news coverage on web search query in Hong Kong. Methods Relevant news coverage about HIV/AIDS and MSM from January 1st, 2004 to December 31st, 2014 was obtained from the WiseNews databse. News trends were created by computing the number of relevant articles by type, topic, place of origin and sub-populations. We then obtained relevant search volumes from Google and analysed causality between news trends and Google Trends using Granger Causality test and orthogonal impulse function. Results We found that editorial news has an impact on “HIV” Google searches on HIV, with the search term popularity peaking at an average of two weeks after the news are published. Similarly, editorial news has an impact on the frequency of “AIDS” searches two weeks after. MSM-related news trends have a more fluctuating impact on “MSM” Google searches, although the time lag varies anywhere from one week later to ten weeks later. Conclusions This infodemiological study shows that there is a positive impact of news trends on the online search behavior of HIV/AIDS or MSM-related issues for up to ten weeks after. Health promotional professionals could make use of this brief time window to tailor the timing of HIV awareness campaigns and public health interventions to maximise its reach and effectiveness. PMID:28922376

  3. International trends in alcohol and drug use among vehicle drivers. (United States)

    Christophersen, A S; Mørland, J; Stewart, K; Gjerde, H


    Trends in the use of alcohol and drugs among motor vehicle drivers in Australia, Brazil, Norway, Spain, and the United States have been reviewed. Laws, regulations, enforcement, and studies on alcohol and drugs in biological samples from motor vehicle drivers in general road traffic and fatal road traffic crashes (RTCs) are discussed. Roadside surveys showed a reduction of drunk driving over time in the studied countries; however, the pattern varied within and between different countries. The reduction of alcohol use may be related to changes in road traffic laws, public information campaigns, and enforcement, including implementation of random breath testing or sobriety checkpoints. For non-alcohol drugs, the trend in general road traffic is an increase in use. However, drugs were not included in older studies; it is therefore impossible to assess the trends over longer time periods. Data from the studied countries, except Brazil, have shown a significant decrease in fatal RTCs per 100,000 inhabitants over the last decades; from 18.6 to 4.9 in Australia, 14.5 to 2.9 in Norway, 11.1 to 3.6 in Spain, and 19.3 to 10.3 in the United States. The number of alcohol-related fatal RTCs also decreased during the same time period. The proportion of fatal RTCs related to non-alcohol drugs increased, particularly for cannabis and stimulants. A general challenge when comparing alcohol and drug findings in biological samples from several countries is connected to differences in study design, particularly the time period for performing roadside surveys, biological matrix types, drugs included in the analytical program, and the cutoff limits used for evaluation of results. For RTC fatalities, the cases included are based on the police requests for legal autopsy or drug testing, which may introduce a significant selection bias. General comparisons between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries as well as a discussion of possible future trends are included

  4. Analysis of gravity data using trend surfaces (United States)

    Asimopolos, Natalia-Silvia; Asimopolos, Laurentiu


    In this paper we have developed algorithms and related software programs for calculating of trend surfaces of higher order. These methods of analysis of trends, like mobile media applications are filtration systems for geophysical data in surface. In particular we presented few case studies for gravity data and gravity maps. Analysis with polynomial trend surfaces contributes to the recognition, isolation and measurement of trends that can be represented by surfaces or hyper-surfaces (in several sizes), thus achieving a separation in regional variations and local variations. This separation is achieved by adjusting the trend function at different values. Trend surfaces using the regression analysis satisfy the criterion of least squares. The difference between the surface of trend and the observed value in a certain point is the residual value. Residual sum of squares of these values should be minimal as the criterion of least squares. The trend surface is considered as regional or large-scale and the residual value will be regarded as local or small-scale component. Removing the regional trend has the effect of highlighting local components represented by residual values. Surface analysis and hyper-surfaces principles are applied to the surface trend and any number of dimensions. For hyper-surfaces we can work with polynomial functions with four or more variables (three variables of space and other variables for interest parameters) that have great importance in some applications. In the paper we presented the mathematical developments about generalized trend surfaces and case studies about gravimetric data. The trend surfaces have the great advantage that the effect of regional anomalies can be expressed as analytic functions. These tendency surfaces allows subsequent mathematical processing and interesting generalizations, with great advantage to work with polynomial functions compared with the original discrete data. For gravity data we estimate the depth of

  5. An initial investigation of the long-term trends in the fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) calibration parameters on the four Cluster spacecraft (United States)

    Alconcel, L. N. S.; Fox, P.; Brown, P.; Oddy, T. M.; Lucek, E. L.; Carr, C. M.


    Over the course of more than 10 years in operation, the calibration parameters of the outboard fluxgate magnetometer (FGM) sensors on the four Cluster spacecraft are shown to be remarkably stable. The parameters are refined on the ground during the rigorous FGM calibration process performed for the Cluster Active Archive (CAA). Fluctuations in some parameters show some correlation with trends in the sensor temperature (orbit position). The parameters, particularly the offsets, of the spacecraft 1 (C1) sensor have undergone more long-term drift than those of the other spacecraft (C2, C3 and C4) sensors. Some potentially anomalous calibration parameters have been identified and will require further investigation in future. However, the observed long-term stability demonstrated in this initial study gives confidence in the accuracy of the Cluster magnetic field data. For the most sensitive ranges of the FGM instrument, the offset drift is typically 0.2 nT per year in each sensor on C1 and negligible on C2, C3 and C4.

  6. On Hamiltonians with position-dependent mass from Kaluza–Klein compactifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballesteros, Ángel, E-mail:; Gutiérrez-Sagredo, Iván, E-mail:; Naranjo, Pedro, E-mail:


    In a recent paper (Morris (2015) ), an inhomogeneous compactification of the extra dimension of a five-dimensional Kaluza–Klein metric has been shown to generate a position-dependent mass (PDM) in the corresponding four-dimensional system. As an application of this dimensional reduction mechanism, a specific static dilatonic scalar field has been connected with a PDM Lagrangian describing a well-known nonlinear PDM oscillator. Here we present more instances of this construction that lead to PDM systems with radial symmetry, and the properties of their corresponding inhomogeneous extra dimensions are compared with the ones in the nonlinear oscillator model. Moreover, it is also shown how the compactification introduced in this type of models can alternatively be interpreted as a novel mechanism for the dynamical generation of curvature. - Highlights: • New position-dependent mass systems arising from inhomogeneous Kaluza–Klein compactifications are presented. • Connections with known integrable position-dependent mass systems are established. • A novel mechanism for the dynamical generation of curvature is proposed.

  7. Expanding the (kaleido)scope: exploring current literature trends for translating electroencephalography (EEG) based brain-computer interfaces for motor rehabilitation in children (United States)

    Kinney-Lang, E.; Auyeung, B.; Escudero, J.


    Rehabilitation applications using brain-computer interfaces (BCI) have recently shown encouraging results for motor recovery. Effective BCI neurorehabilitation has been shown to exploit neuroplastic properties of the brain through mental imagery tasks. However, these applications and results are currently restricted to adults. A systematic search reveals there is essentially no literature describing motor rehabilitative BCI applications that use electroencephalograms (EEG) in children, despite advances in such applications with adults. Further inspection highlights limited literature pursuing research in the field, especially outside of neurofeedback paradigms. Then the question naturally arises, do current literature trends indicate that EEG based BCI motor rehabilitation applications could be translated to children? To provide further evidence beyond the available literature for this particular topic, we present an exploratory survey examining some of the indirect literature related to motor rehabilitation BCI in children. Our goal is to establish if evidence in the related literature supports research on this topic and if the related studies can help explain the dearth of current research in this area. The investigation found positive literature trends in the indirect studies which support translating these BCI applications to children and provide insight into potential pitfalls perhaps responsible for the limited literature. Careful consideration of these pitfalls in conjunction with support from the literature emphasize that fully realized motor rehabilitation BCI applications for children are feasible and would be beneficial. • BCI intervention has improved motor recovery in adult patients and offer supplementary rehabilitation options to patients. • A systematic literature search revealed that essentially no research has been conducted bringing motor rehabilitation BCI applications to children, despite advances in BCI. • Indirect studies discovered

  8. Expanding the (kaleido)scope: exploring current literature trends for translating electroencephalography (EEG) based brain-computer interfaces for motor rehabilitation in children. (United States)

    Kinney-Lang, E; Auyeung, B; Escudero, J


    Rehabilitation applications using brain-computer interfaces (BCI) have recently shown encouraging results for motor recovery. Effective BCI neurorehabilitation has been shown to exploit neuroplastic properties of the brain through mental imagery tasks. However, these applications and results are currently restricted to adults. A systematic search reveals there is essentially no literature describing motor rehabilitative BCI applications that use electroencephalograms (EEG) in children, despite advances in such applications with adults. Further inspection highlights limited literature pursuing research in the field, especially outside of neurofeedback paradigms. Then the question naturally arises, do current literature trends indicate that EEG based BCI motor rehabilitation applications could be translated to children? To provide further evidence beyond the available literature for this particular topic, we present an exploratory survey examining some of the indirect literature related to motor rehabilitation BCI in children. Our goal is to establish if evidence in the related literature supports research on this topic and if the related studies can help explain the dearth of current research in this area. The investigation found positive literature trends in the indirect studies which support translating these BCI applications to children and provide insight into potential pitfalls perhaps responsible for the limited literature. Careful consideration of these pitfalls in conjunction with support from the literature emphasize that fully realized motor rehabilitation BCI applications for children are feasible and would be beneficial. •  BCI intervention has improved motor recovery in adult patients and offer supplementary rehabilitation options to patients. •  A systematic literature search revealed that essentially no research has been conducted bringing motor rehabilitation BCI applications to children, despite advances in BCI. •  Indirect studies

  9. Snow in Castile-León: trends and variability (United States)

    Merino, A.; Campos, L.; López, L.; García-Ortega, E.; Sánchez, J. L.; Marcos, J. L.; Guerrero-Higueras, A. M.


    The location of Castile and León, inside the Iberian Peninsula, in the Northwestern quadrant, determines, in large measure, the climatic conditions of its territory, granting it very characteristic traits, mostly in the mountainous areas. It is important to note that during a large part of the year, the region is under the influence of Jet Stream, and thus, gives way to very diverse dynamic situations, which turn into different and heterogeneous types of weather. So, in many areas of the region, especially in the most elevated areas, these synoptic and mesoscale situations generate snow precipitation. We should point out that snowfall is one of the principal meteorological risks of Castile and León. Thus, on average, in some mountainous areas there are more than 40 events of snowfall registered annually, with the month of January being the month in which the highest frequency of snowfall appears. The social repercussions of this snowfall are represented in the isolation of places, essentially mountainous, highways being blocked, increase in traffic accidents, etc. As proof of this, it is this type of episode that receives ample coverage by the media, which has a linear relationship with the social perception of risk. As such, the objective of the current work is to analyze the annual trend of days with snow in the different meteorological stations pertaining to AEMET placed in the Community. The period of study is from 1960-2010. Additionally, we have also evaluated trends in annual days of freezing temperature and annual absolute minimum temperature, with the objective of facilitating a meteorological interpretation of the trends obtained on days with snowfall. Finally, the results show that in the majority of stations, a significant negative trend in days with snowfall and annual days with freezing temperatures, and a positive trend in annual absolute minimum temperatures. However, we observed variability in the different regions in the area of study

  10. The 2017 ACR Workforce Survey: Management Trends and Strategic Needs. (United States)

    Harolds, Jay A; Bluth, Edward I


    The 2017 ACR Workforce Survey included questions for group leaders about management trends and areas in which they need more help from the ACR. Respondents identified point of care ultrasound as the area in which they need the most help. Most respondents gave positive or neutral answers regarding their role in the management of radiology allied health professionals and radiology information technology, and most believed their role and influence in decision making in the organization were not decreasing. Copyright © 2017 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Gas position sensitive x-ray detectors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barbosa, A.F.


    The construction of gas x-ray detectors used to count and localize x-ray photons in one and two dimensions is reported. The principles of operation of the detectors are described, as well as the electronic modules comprised in the data acquisition system. Results obtained with detectors built at CBPF are shown, illustrating the performance of the Linear Position Sensitive Detectors. (author). 6 refs, 14 figs

  12. Vegetation greenness trend (2000 to 2009) and the climate controls in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (United States)

    Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Ji, Lei; Lei, Liping; Wang, Cuizhen; Yan, Dongmei; Li, Bin; Li, Jing


    The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing a distinct warming trend, and climate warming has a direct and quick impact on the alpine grassland ecosystem. We detected the greenness trend of the grasslands in the plateau using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2009. Weather station data were used to explore the climatic drivers for vegetation greenness variations. The results demonstrated that the region-wide averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.036  yr−1. Approximately 20% of the vegetation areas, which were primarily located in the northeastern plateau, exhibited significant NDVI increase trend (p-value plateau. A strong positive relationship between NDVI and precipitation, especially in the northeastern plateau, suggested that precipitation was a favorable factor for the grassland NDVI. Negative correlations between NDVI and temperature, especially in the southern plateau, indicated that higher temperature adversely affected the grassland growth. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to the vegetation growth in cold regions, the grasslands in the central and southwestern plateau showed a decrease in trends influenced by increased temperature coupled with decreased precipitation.

  13. The Dependence of Cloud Property Trend Detection on Absolute Calibration Accuracy of Passive Satellite Sensors (United States)

    Shea, Y.; Wielicki, B. A.; Sun-Mack, S.; Minnis, P.; Zelinka, M. D.


    Detecting trends in climate variables on global, decadal scales requires highly accurate, stable measurements and retrieval algorithms. Trend uncertainty depends on its magnitude, natural variability, and instrument and retrieval algorithm accuracy and stability. We applied a climate accuracy framework to quantify the impact of absolute calibration on cloud property trend uncertainty. The cloud properties studied were cloud fraction, effective temperature, optical thickness, and effective radius retrieved using the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Cloud Property Retrieval System, which uses Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer measurements (MODIS). Modeling experiments from the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) agree that net cloud feedback is likely positive but disagree regarding its magnitude, mainly due to uncertainty in shortwave cloud feedback. With the climate accuracy framework we determined the time to detect trends for instruments with various calibration accuracies. We estimated a relationship between cloud property trend uncertainty, cloud feedback, and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and also between effective radius trend uncertainty and aerosol indirect effect trends. The direct relationship between instrument accuracy requirements and climate model output provides the level of instrument absolute accuracy needed to reduce climate model projection uncertainty. Different cloud types have varied radiative impacts on the climate system depending on several attributes, such as their thermodynamic phase, altitude, and optical thickness. Therefore, we also conducted these studies by cloud types for a clearer understanding of instrument accuracy requirements needed to detect changes in their cloud properties. Combining this information with the radiative impact of different cloud types helps to prioritize among requirements for future satellite sensors and understanding the climate detection

  14. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza


    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  15. Strategic positioning in banking industry: Evidence from banking industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hedieh Mashoof


    Full Text Available Strategic positioning has always been a key tool for managers to analyze the position of the firm in different attributes in comparison with competitors. With regard to fierce competition in banking industry, the aim of this study is to analyze the position of Bank Melli Iran with 5 public and private rivals in 6 attributes. The sample of this study was 387 Bank Melli Iran customers. The results of this study were in 14 perceptual maps in which the positions of Bank Melli Iran attributes have been shown compared with bank’s key competitors. The results showed that Bank Melli Iran had strong position and came to the first place in attributes like price, physical equipment and location and security. Moreover, Bank Melli Iran has to improve its position in attributes with no better position.

  16. Digitalization and the global technology trends (United States)

    Ignat, V.


    Digitalization, connected products and services, and shortening innovation cycles are widely discussed topics in management practice and theory and demand for new concepts. We analysed how companies innovated their business models and how are the new the technology trends. We found out, that have a positive approach to digitalization but the technology strategy still runs its original business model. Digitalization forces to new solution orientation. For companies it is necessary to master the digital transformation, new innovations have to be developed. Furthermore, digitalization / Industry 4.0 linking the real-life factory with virtual reality, will play an increasingly important role in global manufacturing. Companies have to obtain new digital capabilities, in order to make their company sustainable for the future. A long term growth and welfare in Europe could be guaranteed only by new technology innovation.

  17. Metamotifs - a generative model for building families of nucleotide position weight matrices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Down Thomas A


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Development of high-throughput methods for measuring DNA interactions of transcription factors together with computational advances in short motif inference algorithms is expanding our understanding of transcription factor binding site motifs. The consequential growth of sequence motif data sets makes it important to systematically group and categorise regulatory motifs. It has been shown that there are familial tendencies in DNA sequence motifs that are predictive of the family of factors that binds them. Further development of methods that detect and describe familial motif trends has the potential to help in measuring the similarity of novel computational motif predictions to previously known data and sensitively detecting regulatory motifs similar to previously known ones from novel sequence. Results We propose a probabilistic model for position weight matrix (PWM sequence motif families. The model, which we call the 'metamotif' describes recurring familial patterns in a set of motifs. The metamotif framework models variation within a family of sequence motifs. It allows for simultaneous estimation of a series of independent metamotifs from input position weight matrix (PWM motif data and does not assume that all input motif columns contribute to a familial pattern. We describe an algorithm for inferring metamotifs from weight matrix data. We then demonstrate the use of the model in two practical tasks: in the Bayesian NestedMICA model inference algorithm as a PWM prior to enhance motif inference sensitivity, and in a motif classification task where motifs are labelled according to their interacting DNA binding domain. Conclusions We show that metamotifs can be used as PWM priors in the NestedMICA motif inference algorithm to dramatically increase the sensitivity to infer motifs. Metamotifs were also successfully applied to a motif classification problem where sequence motif features were used to predict the family of

  18. Increasing persistent haze in Beijing: potential impacts of weakening East Asian winter monsoons associated with northwestern Pacific sea surface temperature trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Pei


    Full Text Available Over the past decades, Beijing, the capital city of China, has encountered increasingly frequent persistent haze events (PHE. While the increased pollutant emissions are considered as the most important reason, changes in regional atmospheric circulations associated with large-scale climate warming also play a role. In this study, we find a significant positive trend of PHE in Beijing for the winters from 1980 to 2016 based on updated daily observations. This trend is closely related to an increasing frequency of extreme anomalous southerly episodes in North China, a weakened East Asian trough in the mid-troposphere and a northward shift of the East Asian jet stream in the upper troposphere. These conditions together depict a weakened East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM system, which is then found to be associated with an anomalous warm, high-pressure system in the middle–lower troposphere over the northwestern Pacific. A practical EAWM index is defined as the seasonal meridional wind anomaly at 850 hPa in winter over North China. Over the period 1900–2016, this EAWM index is positively correlated with the sea surface temperature anomalies over the northwestern Pacific, which indicates a wavy positive trend, with an enhanced positive phase since the mid-1980s. Our results suggest an observation-based mechanism linking the increase in PHE in Beijing with large-scale climatic warming through changes in the typical regional atmospheric circulation.


    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mackinney-Valentin, Maria


    Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch.......Explores a spatial approach to trend mechanisms that is argued to be more contemporary than the traditional temporal appraoch....

  20. Stratospheric Temperature Trends Observed by TIMED/SABER (United States)

    Xian, T.; Tan, R.


    Trends in the stratospheric temperature are studied based on the temperature profile observation from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER). The spatially trends are evaluated in different time scales ranging from decadal to monthly resolved. The results indicate a signature of BDC acceleration. There are strong warming trends (up to 9 K/decade) in the middle to upper stratosphere in the high latitude spring, summer, and autumn seasons, accompanied by strong cooling trends in the lower stratosphere. Besides, strong warming trends occurs through the whole stratosphere over the Southern Hemisphere, which confirms Antarctic ozone layer healing since 2000. In addition, the results demonstrate a significant warming trends in the middle of tropical stratosphere, which becomes strongest during June-July-August.

  1. Twelve-Year Trends of PM10 and Visibility in the Hefei Metropolitan Area of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Huang


    Full Text Available China has been experiencing severe air pollution and previous studies have mostly focused on megacities and a few hot spot regions. Hefei, the provincial capital city of Anhui province, has a population of near 5 million in its metropolitan area, but its air quality has not been reported in literature. In this study, daily PM10 and visibility data in 2001–2012 were analyzed to investigate the air quality status as well as the twelve-year pollution trends in Hefei. The results reveal that Hefei has been suffering high PM10 pollution and low visibility during the study period. The annual average PM10 concentrations are 2~3 times of the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard. PM10 shows fluctuating variation in 2001–2007 and has a slightly decreasing trend after 2008. The annual average visibility range is generally lower than 7 km and shows a worsening trend from 2001 to 2006 followed by an improving trend from 2007 to 2012. Wind speed, precipitation, and relative humidity have negative effects on PM10 concentrations in Hefei, while temperature could positively or negatively affect PM10. The results provide a general understanding of the status and long-term trends of PM10 pollution and visibility in a typical second-tier city in China.

  2. A comparison of heat wave climatologies and trends in China based on multiple definitions (United States)

    You, Qinglong; Jiang, Zhihong; Kong, Lei; Wu, Zhiwei; Bao, Yutao; Kang, Shichang; Pepin, Nick


    Heat waves (HWs) can have disastrous impacts on human activities and natural systems, and are one of the current foci of scientific research, particularly in the context of global warming. However, there is no standard definition of a HW, which makes assessment of temporal trends a challenge. In this study, based on daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature, and relative humidity datasets from China Meteorological Administration, the patterns, trends and variations of HW in China during 1961-2014 are investigated. Sixteen previously published HW indices (HIs) are calculated, which are divided into two types using relative and absolute threshold temperatures, respectively. During 1961-2014, both relative and absolute threshold HIs show the highest number of HW in Jianghua and South China, geographically consistent with the climate characteristics of China. The majority of HIs shows negative/positive trends of HW days before/after 1990 over the whole of China, but especially in Jianghua and South China, which reflects rapid warming since 1990. There are significant correlations among different HIs in the same type (both absolute and relative), but correlations are weak between relative and absolute threshold HIs. Because relative and absolute HIs show contrasting trends, the choice of HI is therefore critical for future analysis

  3. Century Scale Evaporation Trend: An Observational Study (United States)

    Bounoui, Lahouari


    Several climate models with different complexity indicate that under increased CO2 forcing, runoff would increase faster than precipitation overland. However, observations over large U.S watersheds indicate otherwise. This inconsistency between models and observations suggests that there may be important feedbacks between climate and land surface unaccounted for in the present generation of models. We have analyzed century-scale observed annual runoff and precipitation time-series over several United States Geological Survey hydrological units covering large forested regions of the Eastern United States not affected by irrigation. Both time-series exhibit a positive long-term trend; however, in contrast to model results, these historic data records show that the rate of precipitation increases at roughly double the rate of runoff increase. We considered several hydrological processes to close the water budget and found that none of these processes acting alone could account for the total water excess generated by the observed difference between precipitation and runoff. We conclude that evaporation has increased over the period of observations and show that the increasing trend in precipitation minus runoff is correlated to observed increase in vegetation density based on the longest available global satellite record. The increase in vegetation density has important implications for climate; it slows but does not alleviate the projected warming associated with greenhouse gases emission.

  4. On-line signal trend identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tambouratzis, T.; Antonopoulos-Domis, M.


    An artificial neural network, based on the self-organizing map, is proposed for on-line signal trend identification. Trends are categorized at each incoming signal as steady-state, increasing and decreasing, while they are further classified according to characteristics such signal shape and rate of change. Tests with model-generated signals illustrate the ability of the self-organizing map to accurately and reliably perform on-line trend identification in terms of both detection and classification. The proposed methodology has been found robust to the presence of white noise

  5. Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability (United States)

    Li, Hongmei; Ilyina, Tatiana


    We investigate the internal decadal variability of the ocean carbon uptake using 100 ensemble simulations based on the Max Planck Institute Earth system model (MPI-ESM). We find that on decadal time scales, internal variability (ensemble spread) is as large as the forced temporal variability (ensemble mean), and the largest internal variability is found in major carbon sink regions, that is, the 50-65°S band of the Southern Ocean, the North Pacific, and the North Atlantic. The MPI-ESM ensemble produces both positive and negative 10 year trends in the ocean carbon uptake in agreement with observational estimates. Negative decadal trends are projected to occur in the future under RCP4.5 scenario. Due to the large internal variability, the Southern Ocean and the North Pacific require the most ensemble members (more than 53 and 46, respectively) to reproduce the forced decadal trends. This number increases up to 79 in future decades as CO2 emission trajectory changes.

  6. Global positioning method based on polarized light compass system (United States)

    Liu, Jun; Yang, Jiangtao; Wang, Yubo; Tang, Jun; Shen, Chong


    This paper presents a global positioning method based on a polarized light compass system. A main limitation of polarization positioning is the environment such as weak and locally destroyed polarization environments, and the solution to the positioning problem is given in this paper which is polarization image de-noising and segmentation. Therefore, the pulse coupled neural network is employed for enhancing positioning performance. The prominent advantages of the present positioning technique are as follows: (i) compared to the existing position method based on polarized light, better sun tracking accuracy can be achieved and (ii) the robustness and accuracy of positioning under weak and locally destroyed polarization environments, such as cloudy or building shielding, are improved significantly. Finally, some field experiments are given to demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed global positioning technique. The experiments have shown that our proposed method outperforms the conventional polarization positioning method, the real time longitude and latitude with accuracy up to 0.0461° and 0.0911°, respectively.

  7. Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships. (United States)

    Chen, Shyi-Ming; Chen, Shen-Wen


    In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, it calculates the probability of the "down-trend," the probability of the "equal-trend" and the probability of the "up-trend" of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the probabilities of the down-trend, the equal-trend, and the up-trend of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

  8. Interior Design Trends in Libraries. (United States)

    Sager, Don, Ed.


    Four contributing authors discuss perspectives on current trends in library interior design. Articles include: "Trends in Library Furnishings: A Manufacturer's Perspective" (Andrea Johnson); "Libraries, Architecture, and Light: The Architect's Perspective" (Rick McCarthy); "The Library Administrator's Perspective" (Chadwick Raymond); and "The…

  9. Recent trends in policies, socioeconomy and future directions of the biodiesel industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ng, J.H.; Ng, Hoon Kiat [University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, Semenyih, Selangor (Malaysia); Gan, S. [University of Nottingham Malaysia Campus, Department of Chemical and Environmental Engineering, Semenyih, Selangor (Malaysia)


    The growing uncertainty of available petroleum reserves and the associated environmental impacts from the usage of fossil fuels has led to a worldwide search for renewable energy sources. Biodiesel is currently placed at the forefront as the most viable alternative fuel for compression ignition engines as it can be produced from renewable sources through simple cost-effective transesterification, while being compatible with existing infrastructures. Despite these, biodiesel is still not economically feasible for large-scale adoption at present day, mainly due to the high cost of conventional feedstocks. Governmental policies, fiscal incentives and emissions laws have all shown to encourage the uptake of biodiesel in the early stages of market development. The rapid growth enjoyed by the biodiesel industry thereafter has raised concerns of various ethical issues, which must be addressed if the industry is to maintain its positive growth. The strategies required for a stable and sustained biodiesel industry will predominantly be based on the principles of a free market with minimal artificial interventions from policy makers, and the appropriate technological advances in production techniques and feedstocks options to stay competitive economically. This paper reviews the recent trends in global policies and legislative measures governing the economy of the biodiesel industry, and how these will impact the future outlook of the industry as a whole. Historical backgrounds and pertinent issues on socioeconomical and ethical aspects of the industry are also addressed here. (orig.)

  10. Beam Position Monitor Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Stephen R.


    The design of beam position monitors often involves challenging system design choices. Position transducers must be robust, accurate, and generate adequate position signal without unduly disturbing the beam. Electronics must be reliable and affordable, usually while meeting tough requirements on precision. accuracy, and dynamic range. These requirements may be difficult to achieve simultaneously, leading the designer into interesting opportunities for optimization or compromise. Some useful techniques and tools are shown. Both finite element analysis and analytic techniques will be used to investigate quasi-static aspects of electromagnetic fields such as the impedance of and the coupling of beam to striplines or buttons. Finite-element tools will be used to understand dynamic aspects of the electromagnetic fields of beams, such as wake-fields and transmission-line and cavity effects in vacuum-to-air feed through. Mathematical modeling of electrical signals through a processing chain will be demonstrated, in particular to illuminate areas where neither a pure time-domain nor a pure frequency-domain analysis is obviously advantageous. Emphasis will be on calculational techniques, in particular on using both time-domain and frequency domain approaches to the applicable parts of interesting problems

  11. Investigation of Breakpoint and Trend of Daily Air Temperature Range for Mashhad, Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    shideh shams


    Full Text Available Introduction: Air temperature as an important climatic factor can influence variability and distribution of other climatic parameters. Therefore, tracking the changes in air temperature is a popular procedure in climate change studies.. According to the national academy in the last decade, global temperature has raised 0.4 to 0.8⁰C. Instrumental records show that, with the exception of 1998, the 10 warmest year (during the last 150 years, occurred since 2000, and 2014 was the warmest year. Investigation of maximum and minimum air temperature temporal trend indicates that these two parameters behave differently over time. It has been shown that the minimum air temperature raises noticeably more than the maximum air temperature, which causes a reduction in the difference of maximum and minimum daily air temperature (daily temperature range, DTR. There are several factors that have an influence on reducing DTR such as: Urban development, farms’ irrigation and desertification. It has been shown that DTR reduction occurs mostly during winter and is less frequent during summer, which shows the season’s effect on the temperature trend. Considering the significant effects of the climatological factors on economic and agricultural management issues, the aim of this study is to investigate daily air temperature range for yearly, seasonal and monthly time scales, using available statistical methods. Materials and Methods: Daily maximum and minimum air temperature records (from 1950 to 2010 were obtained from Mashhad Meteorological Organization. In order to control the quality of daily Tmax and Tmin data, four different types of quality controls were applied. First of all, gross errors were checked. In this step maximum and minimum air temperature data exceeding unlikely air temperature values, were eliminated from data series. Second, data tolerance was checked by searching for periods longer than a certain number of consecutive days with exactly the

  12. The world’s biggest hotel companies. Old trends and new tendencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kowalczyk Andrzej


    Full Text Available Many hotels are owned by a few dozen so-called hotel chains or hotel systems. The rapid growth of big hotel companies can be regarded as proof of the entrance of hotel systems into the globalisation phase. Since 2006, companies from the People’s Republic of China (PRC have been among the world’s top hotel systems. This year can be considered as the symbolic beginning of a new stage in the history of the largest hotel systems. This paper shows two main trends. On the one hand, the processes that could be observed in the market of the major global hotel systems from the 1990s are still discernible (for example, the position of the so-called hotel megasystems. On the other hand, new trends have come to the fore in recent years, notably the emergence of systems from the People’s Republic of China among the world’s largest hotel systems.

  13. Parameters estimation for X-ray sources: positions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Avni, Y.


    It is shown that the sizes of the positional error boxes for x-ray sources can be determined by using an estimation method which we have previously formulated generally and applied in spectral analyses. It is explained how this method can be used by scanning x-ray telescopes, by rotating modulation collimators, and by HEAO-A (author)

  14. A deterministic - approach controller design for electrohydraulic position servo control system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johari Osman


    This paper is concerned with the design of a tracking controller for controlling electrohydraulic position servo system based on a deterministic approach. The system is treated as an uncertain system with bounded uncertainties where the bounds are assumed known. It will be shown that the electrohydraulic position servo systems with the proposed controller is practically stable and tracks the desired position in spite of the uncertainties and nonlinearities present in the system (author)

  15. Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends under climate change in Bangladesh using observed and CMIP5 data sets (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid; Ongoma, Victor


    ET0 is an important hydro-meteorological phenomenon, which is influenced by changing climate like other climatic parameters. This study investigates the present and future trends of ET0 in Bangladesh using 39 years' historical and downscaled CMIP5 daily climatic data for the twenty-first century. Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was used to downscale the climate data required to calculate ET0. Penman-Monteith formula was applied in ET0 calculation for both the historical and modelled data. To analyse ET0 trends and trend changing patterns, modified Mann-Kendall and Sequential Mann-Kendall tests were, respectively, done. Spatial variations of ET0 trends are presented by inverse distance weighting interpolation using ArcGIS 10.2.2. Results show that RCP8.5 (2061-2099) will experience the highest amount of ET0 totals in comparison to the historical and all other scenarios in the same time span of 39 years. Though significant positive trends were observed in the mid and last months of year from month-wise trend analysis of representative concentration pathways, significant negative trends were also found for some months using historical data in similar analysis. From long-term annual trend analysis, it was found that major part of the country represents decreasing trends using historical data, but increasing trends were observed for modelled data. Theil-Sen estimations of ET0 trends in the study depict a good consistency with the Mann-Kendall test results. The findings of the study would contribute in irrigation water management and planning of the country and also in furthering the climate change study using modelled data in the context of Bangladesh.

  16. Longitudinal and secular trends in adolescent whole-grain consumption, 1999-2004. (United States)

    Burgess-Champoux, Teri L; Larson, Nicole I; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne R; Hannan, Peter J; Story, Mary T


    The replacement of refined grains in the diet with whole grains may help prevent chronic disease and excess weight gain, but intakes in adolescents are often lower than recommended. This study aimed to examine demographic disparities and 5-y longitudinal and secular trends (1999-2004) in whole-grain intake among 2 cohorts of Minnesota adolescents. Whole-grain intake was examined among 996 adolescent males and 1222 adolescent females who were Project EAT (Eating Among Teens) participants in 1999 and 2004. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine demographic differences in whole-grain intake. Mixed linear regression models were used to estimate 1) longitudinal trends among 2 cohorts of adolescents during developmental transitions and 2) age-matched secular trends between the cohorts at middle adolescence. In 1999, 11% of adolescent males and 13% of adolescent females reported that they consumed more than one daily serving of whole grains. Whole-grain intake was lowest among youth of the Native American and white races and among youth of high socioeconomic status. During the transition from middle to late adolescence, whole-grain intake increased by a mean of 0.14 daily servings among adolescent males and 0.09 daily servings among adolescent females. No significant changes in whole-grain intake were shown among either sex during the transition from early to middle adolescence. Yeast breads, popcorn, and ready-to-eat breakfast cereals were major sources of whole grains in 1999 and 2004. Findings suggest the need to advance efforts that target improvements in the amount of whole-grain foods selected by adolescents.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylwia Talar


    Full Text Available The paper includes analysis and assessment of trade in the ICT services performance of Poland. This study is looked at the trade position, essentially on the basis of the share in the world ICT services exports, revealed comparative advantage (RCA, and trade coverage ratio. It also identifies trends of the world trade in the ICT services. The statistics are derived from the basis of UNCTAD and Eurostat. International trade in the ICT ser-vices sector has specific characteristics and the interpretation of results of this trade is to take account of the particular nature of the ICT services. Poland is currently not revealed comparative advantage in the ICT services exports, but has had positive balance. Practically all trade indicators for Poland show very strong growth, which indicate a significant improvement in its ICT services trade position.

  18. Mortality trends among Japanese dialysis patients, 1988-2013: a joinpoint regression analysis. (United States)

    Wakasugi, Minako; Kazama, Junichiro James; Narita, Ichiei


    Evaluation of mortality trends in dialysis patients is important for improving their prognoses. The present study aimed to examine temporal trends in deaths (all-cause, cardiovascular, noncardiovascular and the five leading causes) among Japanese dialysis patients. Mortality data were extracted from the Japanese Society of Dialysis Therapy registry. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization against the 2013 dialysis population. The average annual percentage of change (APC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed for trends using joinpoint regression analysis. A total of 469 324 deaths occurred, of which 25.9% were from cardiac failure, 17.5% from infectious disease, 10.2% from cerebrovascular disorders, 8.6% from malignant tumors and 5.6% from cardiac infarction. The joinpoint trend for all-cause mortality decreased significantly, by -3.7% (95% CI -4.2 to -3.2) per year from 1988 through 2000, then decreased more gradually, by -1.4% (95% CI -1.7 to -1.2) per year during 2000-13. The improved mortality rates were mainly due to decreased deaths from cardiovascular disease, with mortality rates due to noncardiovascular disease outnumbering those of cardiovascular disease in the last decade. Among the top five causes of death, cardiac failure has shown a marked decrease in mortality rate. However, the rates due to infectious disease have remained stable during the study period [APC 0.1 (95% CI -0.2-0.3)]. Significant progress has been made, particularly with regard to the decrease in age-standardized mortality rates. The risk of cardiovascular death has decreased, while the risk of death from infection has remained unchanged for 25 years. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

  19. Trends in proliferation: a survey of recent developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joshi, Manoj


    It would be a truism to say that the trends in the area of proliferation display positive and negative aspects. On the one hand, the steps being taken by the nuclear haves appear to be designed to maintain their nuclear hegemony forever; on the other, there are indications such as the support being extended to the proposed conventions for the ending of nuclear tests and the production of fissile material for weapons that the nuclear weapons states also realize that the problem cannot be solved unless they also participate in the process and accept non-discriminatory restraints. However, it is much too early to predict which way the situation will develop. (author). 34 refs

  20. Physical activity trends in Queensland (2002 to 2008): are women becoming more active than men? (United States)

    Vandelanotte, Corneel; Duncan, Mitch J; Caperchione, Cristina; Hanley, Christine; Mummery, W Kerry


    Regular monitoring of population levels of physical activity is an effective way to assess change over time towards meeting public health recommendations. The objective of this study was to determine physical activity trends in Central Queensland over the period 2002 to 2008. Data was obtained from the Central Queensland Social Survey (CQSS) conducted annually from 2002 to 2008. A total sample of 8,936 adults aged 18 and over participated in seven cross-sectional surveys. Physical activity was measured using the Active Australia Questionnaire. Binary logistic regression was used to examine trends in sufficient physical activity. Averaged over all survey years 46.5% of study participants met national physical activity guidelines. A small significant upward trend was found for meeting physical activity recommendations across all years (OR=1.03; 95%CI=1.01-1.05), indicating that the odds of meeting the guidelines increased by an average of 3% per year from 2002 to 2008. Slightly more men than women met the activity guidelines (ns); however a significant positive trend in achieving sufficient activity levels was present in women only (4%). Although an increasing trend for sufficient physical activity was observed, overall physical activity levels in Central Queensland remain suboptimal and more efforts to increase physical activity are needed. The gender differences in physical activity trends indicate that men and women might need to be targeted differently in health promotion messages. The continuous monitoring of population levels of physical activity in Australia, which allow both state specific and international comparisons, is needed.

  1. High-intensity interval training has positive effects on performance in ice hockey players. (United States)

    Naimo, M A; de Souza, E O; Wilson, J M; Carpenter, A L; Gilchrist, P; Lowery, R P; Averbuch, B; White, T M; Joy, J


    In spite of the well-known benefits that have been shown, few studies have looked at the practical applications of high-intensity interval training (HIIT) on athletic performance. This study investigated the effects of a HIIT program compared to traditional continuous endurance exercise training. 24 hockey players were randomly assigned to either a continuous or high-intensity interval group during a 4-week training program. The interval group (IG) was involved in a periodized HIIT program. The continuous group (CG) performed moderate intensity cycling for 45-60 min at an intensity that was 65% of their calculated heart rate reserve. Body composition, muscle thickness, anaerobic power, and on-ice measures were assessed pre- and post-training. Muscle thickness was significantly greater in IG (p=0.01) when compared to CG. The IG had greater values for both ∆ peak power (p<0.003) and ∆ mean power (p<0.02). Additionally, IG demonstrated a faster ∆ sprint (p<0.02) and a trend (p=0.08) for faster ∆ endurance test time to completion for IG. These results indicate that hockey players may utilize short-term HIIT to elicit positive effects in muscle thickness, power and on-ice performance. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  2. Turning the pink cloud grey: Dampening of positive affect predicts postpartum depressive symptoms.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Raes, Filip; Smets, Jorien; Wessel, Ineke; Van Den Eede, Filip; Nelis, Sabine; Franck, Erik; Jacquemyn, Yves; Hanssens, Myriam

    OBJECTIVE: Maladaptive response styles to negative affect have been shown to be associated with prospective (postpartum) depression. Whether maladaptive styles to positive affect are also critically involved is understudied, even though anhedonia (a correlate of low positive affectivity) is a

  3. Trends in social security benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer from 2006 to 2013 in Brazil. (United States)

    Bomfim, Rafael Aiello; Cascaes, Andreia Morales


    to analyze the trends in the concession of social security sick pay for oral and oropharyngeal cancer, from 2006 to 2013, in Brazil. time series study using data of workers insured by the Brazilian National Institute of Social Security (INSS); Prais-Winsten generalized linear regressions were used to calculate the annual percentage change (APC). social security benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer presented significant increase (APC=9.0%; 95%CI 1.4; 17.4); benefits for other parts of the mouth, nasopharynx, oropharynx, floor of mouth and palate have also shown significant increase; the areas of trade (5.5%) and manufacturing (5.2%) were the most prevalent activities; there was a high proportion of fields in blank in the information systems (average of 72.9%). trends in occupational benefits for oral and oropharyngeal cancer showed significant increase.

  4. Prevalence of Suicidal Ideation and Its Association with Positive Affect in Working Women: A Day Reconstruction Study. (United States)

    Tian, Lili; Yang, Ying; Yang, Huijing; Huebner, E Scott


    The suicide rate for females in China is the second highest worldwide, and China is the only country in the world in which the rate of suicides is higher for women than men. Affective instability has been shown to be a strong predictor of suicidal ideation, particularly among women. However, prior research has mainly focused on the impact of women's negative affect on suicidal ideation, ignoring the influence of positive affect on suicidal ideation. Studies have revealed that hopelessness, which is 1.3 times more important than depression for explaining suicidal ideation, is driven more by low levels of positive affect than by high levels of negative affect. Although positive affect has also been found to be related to suicidal ideation, and it demonstrates independent, beneficial effects on mental health, much remains to be learned about the association between positive affective instability and suicidal ideation. Therefore, we investigated the prevalence of suicidal ideation among Chinese working women and explored the differences between working women with and without suicidal ideation in the intensity and daily variability of positive affect. A total of 222 young working women of ages 22-36 years ( M = 27.64, SD = 3.73) were recruited from a free weekend psychology lecture. The women subsequently completed a daily diary Day Reconstruction Method (DRM) as well as a suicidal ideation questionnaire. We used hierarchical linear modeling (HLM) to analyze the data, and the results showed that: (1) 10.81% of participates reported suicidal ideation, the intensity of positive affect (happiness, warmth/friendliness, interest and relaxation/calmness) was significantly lower for women with suicidal ideation compared to women without suicidal ideation; (2) differing diurnal patterns of positive emotions were observed between women with and without suicidal ideation; women with suicidal ideation demonstrated a significantly lower trend of growth and a higher volatility in

  5. Trends of solar ultraviolet irradiance at Barrow, Alaska, and the effect of measurement uncertainties on trend detection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bernhard


    Full Text Available Spectral ultraviolet (UV irradiance has been observed near Barrow, Alaska (71° N, 157° W between 1991 and 2011 with an SUV-100 spectroradiometer. The instrument was historically part of the US National Science Foundation's UV Monitoring Network and is now a component of NSF's Arctic Observing Network. From these measurements, trends in monthly average irradiance and their uncertainties were calculated. The analysis focuses on two quantities, the UV Index (which is affected by atmospheric ozone concentrations and irradiance at 345 nm (which is virtually insensitive to ozone. Uncertainties of trend estimates depend on variations in the data due to (1 natural variability, (2 systematic and random errors of the measurements, and (3 uncertainties caused by gaps in the time series. Using radiative transfer model calculations, systematic errors of the measurements were detected and corrected. Different correction schemes were tested to quantify the sensitivity of the trend estimates on the treatment of systematic errors. Depending on the correction method, estimates of decadal trends changed between 1.5% and 2.9%. Uncertainties in the trend estimates caused by error sources (2 and (3 were set into relation with the overall uncertainty of the trend determinations. Results show that these error sources are only relevant for February, March, and April when natural variability is low due to high surface albedo. This method of addressing measurement uncertainties in time series analysis is also applicable to other geophysical parameters. Trend estimates varied between −14% and +5% per decade and were significant (95.45% confidence level only for the month of October. Depending on the correction method, October trends varied between −11.4% and −13.7% for irradiance at 345 nm and between −11.7% and −14.1% for the UV Index. These large trends are consistent with trends in short-wave (0.3–3.0 μm solar irradiance measured with pyranometers at NOAA

  6. Application of TaiWan Ionosphere Model to Single-Frequency Ionospheric Delay Correction for GPS Static Position Positioning (United States)

    Macalalad, E. P.; Tsai, L.; Wu, J.


    Ionospheric delay is one of the major sources of error in GPS positioning and navigation. This error in both pseudorange and phase ranges can vary depending on the location of observation, local time, season, solar cycle and geomagnetic activity. This effect can be practically removed using dual-frequency receivers. However, these types of receivers are very expensive and thus, impractical for most users. Therefore, for single-frequency receivers, ionosphere is usually modeled to attempt to remove this effect analytically. Numerous ionosphere models have been introduced in the past. Some of which are the Klobuchar (or broadcast) model and the global ionosphere map (GIM) provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS). In this paper, another model, called the TaiWan Ionosphere Model (TWIM) was used to correct this effect. TWIM is a three dimensional ionospheric electron (ne) density model derived from FormoSat3/COSMIC GPS Radio Occultation measurements, was used to calculate ionospheric delay for GPS single-frequency positioning. The ne profiles were used to calculate the slant TEC (STEC) between a receiver and each GPS satellite and correct the pseudorange single-frequency observations. The corrected pseudorange for every epoch was used to calculate the position of the receiver. Observations were made in a low-latitude location near one of the peaks of the equatorial anomaly. It was shown that TEC maps generated using TWIM exhibited detailed structure of the ionosphere, whereas Klobuchar and GIM only provided the basic diurnal and geographic features of the ionosphere. Also, it was shown that for static point positioning TWIM provides more accurate and more precise positioning than the Klobuchar and GIM models. That is, on the average, the horizontal accuracy, represented by the circular error probable (CEP), distance RMS (DRMS) and twice the DRMS (2DRMS), were better by 15-18% as compared with the CEP, DRMS and 2DRMS of uncorrected, Klobuchar and GIM. Moreover

  7. MRSA Incidence and Antibiotic Trends in Urban Hand Infections: A 10-Year Longitudinal Study. (United States)

    Kistler, Justin M; Thoder, Joseph J; Ilyas, Asif M


    Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is the most reported pathogen in hand infections at urban medical centers throughout the country. Antibiotic sensitivity trends are not well known. The purposes of this study were to examine and determine the drug resistance trends for MRSA infections of the hand and to provide recommendations for empiric antibiotic treatment based on sensitivity profiles. A 10-year longitudinal, retrospective chart review was performed on all culture-positive hand infections encountered at a single urban medical center from 2005 to 2014. The proportions of all organisms were calculated for each year and collectively. MRSA infections were additionally subanalyzed for antibiotic sensitivity. A total of 815 culture-positive hand infections were identified. Overall, MRSA grew on culture in 46% of cases. A trend toward decreasing annual MRSA incidence was noted over the 10-year study period. There was a steady increase in polymicrobial infections during the same time. Resistance to clindamycin increased steadily during the 10-year study, starting at 4% in 2008 but growing to 31% by 2014. Similarly, levofloxacin resistance consistently increased throughout the study, reaching its peak at 56% in 2014. The annual incidence of MRSA in hand infections has declined overall but remains the most common pathogen. There has been an alternative increase in the number of polymicrobial infections. MRSA resistance to clindamycin and levofloxacin consistently increased during the study period. Empiric antibiotic therapy for hand infections should not only avoid penicillin and other beta-lactams but should also consider avoiding clindamycin and levofloxacin for empiric treatment.

  8. Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (United States)

    Rice, Karen C.; Hirsch, Robert M.


    Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme

  9. Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province (United States)

    Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh


    Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest

  10. MGIMO-University in “Go To Think Tanks” 2015 Ranking: Global Trends, Local Responses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maxim V. Kharkevich


    Full Text Available The article discusses the latest issue of Go to think tank ranking and MGIMO position in it. It also considers global trends related to changes in the environment and forms of activities of research centers, identified by the ranking. In particular, it notes the changes in the system of financing think tanks from the few large grants for an extended period of time to a small but numerous grants for short periods for specific projects. It also notes the increasing state pressure on think tanks from around the world. In addition, it points to increased competition on the market of ideas and scientific expertise. Research centers have to adapt to these changes. In view of these trends the experience of one of the research centers of MGIMO, the Center for Military-Political Studies is considered. Innovation activities of the Centre on a whole corresponds to global trends. The center is seeking to diversify its sources of funding and enhances the focus of research topics - long-term forecasting of the international military and political relations.

  11. A positive relationship between spring temperature and productivity in 20 songbird species in the boreal zone. (United States)

    Meller, Kalle; Piha, Markus; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Lehikoinen, Aleksi


    Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.

  12. Trends in PM2.5 emissions, concentrations and apportionments in Detroit and Chicago (United States)

    Milando, Chad; Huang, Lei; Batterman, Stuart


    PM2.5 concentrations throughout much of the U.S. have decreased over the last 15 years, but emissions and concentration trends can vary by location and source type. Such trends should be understood to inform air quality management and policies. This work examines trends in emissions, concentrations and source apportionments in two large Midwest U.S. cities, Detroit, Michigan, and Chicago, Illinois. Annual and seasonal trends were investigated using National Emission Inventory (NEI) data for 2002 to 2011, speciated ambient PM2.5 data from 2001 to 2014, apportionments from positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor modeling, and quantile regression. Over the study period, county-wide data suggest emissions from point sources decreased (Detroit) or held constant (Chicago), while emissions from on-road mobile sources were constant (Detroit) or increased (Chicago), however changes in methodology limit the interpretation of inventory trends. Ambient concentration data also suggest source and apportionment trends, e.g., annual median concentrations of PM2.5 in the two cities declined by 3.2-3.6%/yr (faster than national trends), and sulfate concentrations (due to coal-fired facilities and other point source emissions) declined even faster; in contrast, organic and elemental carbon (tracers of gasoline and diesel vehicle exhaust) declined more slowly or held constant. The PMF models identified nine sources in Detroit and eight in Chicago, the most important being secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate and vehicle emissions. A minor crustal dust source, metals sources, and a biomass source also were present in both cities. These apportionments showed that the median relative contributions from secondary sulfate sources decreased by 4.2-5.5% per year in Detroit and Chicago, while contributions from metals sources, biomass sources, and vehicles increased from 1.3 to 9.2% per year. This first application of quantile regression to trend analyses of speciated PM2.5 data reveals

  13. Information Geometry of Positive Measures and Positive-Definite Matrices: Decomposable Dually Flat Structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shun-ichi Amari


    Full Text Available Information geometry studies the dually flat structure of a manifold, highlighted by the generalized Pythagorean theorem. The present paper studies a class of Bregman divergences called the (ρ,τ-divergence. A (ρ,τ -divergence generates a dually flat structure in the manifold of positive measures, as well as in the manifold of positive-definite matrices. The class is composed of decomposable divergences, which are written as a sum of componentwise divergences. Conversely, a decomposable dually flat divergence is shown to be a (ρ,τ -divergence. A (ρ,τ -divergence is determined from two monotone scalar functions, ρ and τ. The class includes the KL-divergence, α-, β- and (α, β-divergences as special cases. The transformation between an affine parameter and its dual is easily calculated in the case of a decomposable divergence. Therefore, such a divergence is useful for obtaining the center for a cluster of points, which will be applied to classification and information retrieval in vision. For the manifold of positive-definite matrices, in addition to the dually flatness and decomposability, we require the invariance under linear transformations, in particular under orthogonal transformations. This opens a way to define a new class of divergences, called the (ρ,τ -structure in the manifold of positive-definite matrices.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henryk Ćwikliński


    Full Text Available Airports are a key link of the air transport infrastructure, which is a part of the whole transportation system. Their potential is determined by a network of airlines relations and affects the long-term, strategic position in the market of aviation services. The most possible scenario of the macro-environment of the Gdansk Airport has a relatively high predictability and generally positive influencing on the potential for development in the next years. Only international and demographic areas can constitute a barrier to achieving the strategic objectives. Gdansk Airport takes permanently the third position on the Polish market. Strategic gap analysis leads to the conclusion that, compared to its main competitors Airport Gdansk has a gap of compliance trends, but in relation to smaller regional airports excess gap. GDN services are located in the square "Star" in the BCG matrix. This airport has prepared an investment program till 2035. The dynamics of the projected increase in the number of passengers and air operations in Gdansk is generally slightly higher than the growth nationwide forecasts. The strategic challenge for next years will be to strengthen the status of the GDN as a Polish aviation gateway to Scandinavia.

  15. Evaluation of NASA's MERRA Precipitation Product in Reproducing the Observed Trend and Distribution of Extreme Precipitation Events in the United States (United States)

    Ashouri, Hamed; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Hsu, Kuo-Lin; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Lee, Jaechoul; Wehner, Michael F.; Collow, Allison


    This study evaluates the performance of NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) precipitation product in reproducing the trend and distribution of extreme precipitation events. Utilizing the extreme value theory, time-invariant and time-variant extreme value distributions are developed to model the trends and changes in the patterns of extreme precipitation events over the contiguous United States during 1979-2010. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) U.S.Unified gridded observation data are used as the observational dataset. The CPC analysis shows that the eastern and western parts of the United States are experiencing positive and negative trends in annual maxima, respectively. The continental-scale patterns of change found in MERRA seem to reasonably mirror the observed patterns of change found in CPC. This is not previously expected, given the difficulty in constraining precipitation in reanalysis products. MERRA tends to overestimate the frequency at which the 99th percentile of precipitation is exceeded because this threshold tends to be lower in MERRA, making it easier to be exceeded. This feature is dominant during the summer months. MERRA tends to reproduce spatial patterns of the scale and location parameters of the generalized extreme value and generalized Pareto distributions. However, MERRA underestimates these parameters, particularly over the Gulf Coast states, leading to lower magnitudes in extreme precipitation events. Two issues in MERRA are identified: 1) MERRA shows a spurious negative trend in Nebraska and Kansas, which is most likely related to the changes in the satellite observing system over time that has apparently affected the water cycle in the central United States, and 2) the patterns of positive trend over the Gulf Coast states and along the East Coast seem to be correlated with the tropical cyclones in these regions. The analysis of the trends in the seasonal precipitation extremes indicates that

  16. Selected Trends of the Cybercrime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Požár


    Full Text Available The contribution paid particular attention to trends of the cybercrime in future period dedicated to combating negative phenomena in the context of cyberspace. The structure of article concern of definition of cybercrime, its legal classification especially choosing trends of cybercrime in future period.

  17. Business trend analysis by simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schonenberg, H.; Jian, J.; Sidorova, N.; Aalst, van der W.M.P.; Pernici, B.


    Business processes are constantly affected by the environment in which they execute. The environment can change due to seasonal and financial trends. For organisations it is crucial to understand their processes and to be able to estimate the effects of these trends on the processes. Business

  18. Variability and trend in ozone over the southern tropics and subtropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Toihir


    km, where 58 % ±2 % of total ozone variability is explained by the effect of QBO. Annual ozone oscillations are more apparent at two different altitude ranges (below 24 km and in the 27–30 km altitude band over the tropical and subtropical regions, while the semi-annual oscillations are more significant over the 27–30 km altitude range in the tropical and equatorial regions. The estimated trend in TCO is positive and not significant and corresponds to a variation of  ∼ 1.34±0.50 % decade−1 (averaged over the three regions. The trend estimated within the equatorial region (0–15° S is less than 1 % per decade, while it is assessed at more than 1.5 % decade−1 for all the sites located southward of 17° S. With regard to the vertical distribution of trend estimates, a positive trend in ozone concentration is obtained in the 22–30 km altitude range, while a delay in ozone improvement is apparent in the UT–LS (upper troposphere–lower stratosphere below 22 km. This is especially noticeable at approximately 19 km, where a negative value is observed in the tropical regions.

  19. Interfractional trend analysis of dose differences based on 2D transit portal dosimetry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Persoon, L C G G; Nijsten, S M J J G; Wilbrink, F J; Podesta, M; Snaith, J A D; Lustberg, T; Van Elmpt, W J C; Van Gils, F; Verhaegen, F


    Dose delivery of a radiotherapy treatment can be influenced by a number of factors. It has been demonstrated that the electronic portal imaging device (EPID) is valuable for transit portal dosimetry verification. Patient related dose differences can emerge at any time during treatment and can be categorized in two types: (1) systematic—appearing repeatedly, (2) random—appearing sporadically during treatment. The aim of this study is to investigate how systematic and random information appears in 2D transit dose distributions measured in the EPID plane over the entire course of a treatment and how this information can be used to examine interfractional trends, building toward a methodology to support adaptive radiotherapy. To create a trend overview of the interfractional changes in transit dose, the predicted portal dose for the different beams is compared to a measured portal dose using a γ evaluation. For each beam of the delivered fraction, information is extracted from the γ images to differentiate systematic from random dose delivery errors. From the systematic differences of a fraction for a projected anatomical structures, several metrics are extracted like percentage pixels with |γ| > 1. We demonstrate for four example cases the trends and dose difference causes which can be detected with this method. Two sample prostate cases show the occurrence of a random and systematic difference and identify the organ that causes the difference. In a lung cancer case a trend is shown of a rapidly diminishing atelectasis (lung fluid) during the course of treatment, which was detected with this trend analysis method. The final example is a breast cancer case where we show the influence of set-up differences on the 2D transit dose. A method is presented based on 2D portal transit dosimetry to record dose changes throughout the course of treatment, and to allow trend analysis of dose discrepancies. We show in example cases that this method can identify the causes of

  20. Regional Trends in Electromobility - Regional Study North America


    Turrentine, Tom; Garas, Dhalia


    The subproject “Regional Trends in Electro mobility” aims at identifying and analyzing major trends in the field of electro mobility. The trend analysis will monitor research effort and upcoming technologies, policies, products and market developments in different focus regions around the world continuously to enable a systematic analysis of global trends. The regional trend analysis for electro mobility is a major keystone for the project success and therefore cooperation with...

  1. Mesopause region temperature variability and its trend in southern Brazil (United States)

    Venturini, Mateus S.; Bageston, José V.; Caetano, Nattan R.; Peres, Lucas V.; Bencherif, Hassan; Schuch, Nelson J.


    . A smaller trend (-0.02 ± 0.16 % decade-1) was found at 90 km height and small positive trends (0.58 ± 0.26 % and 0.41 ± 0.19 % decade-1) were found at altitudes of 85 and 95 km, respectively.

  2. Billing Trends

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Billing Trends. Internet access: Bandwidth becoming analogous to electric power. Only maximum capacity (load) is fixed; Charges based on usage (units). Leased line bandwidth: Billing analogous to phone calls. But bandwidth is variable.

  3. Are Simulated and Observed Twentieth Century Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Trends Significant Relative to Internal Variability? (United States)

    Coats, S.; Karnauskas, K. B.


    Historical trends in the tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient (SST gradient) are analyzed herein using 41 climate models (83 simulations) and 5 observational data sets. A linear inverse model is trained on each simulation and observational data set to assess if trends in the SST gradient are significant relative to the stationary statistics of internal variability, as would suggest an important role for external forcings such as anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. None of the 83 simulations have a positive trend in the SST gradient, a strengthening of the climatological SST gradient with more warming in the western than eastern tropical Pacific, as large as the mean trend across the five observational data sets. If the observed trends are anthropogenically forced, this discrepancy suggests that state-of-the-art climate models are not capturing the observed response of the tropical Pacific to anthropogenic forcing, with serious implications for confidence in future climate projections. There are caveats to this interpretation, however, as some climate models have a significant strengthening of the SST gradient between 1900 and 2013 Common Era, though smaller in magnitude than the observational data sets, and the strengthening in three out of five observational data sets is insignificant. When combined with observational uncertainties and the possibility of centennial time scale internal variability not sampled by the linear inverse model, this suggests that confident validation of anthropogenic SST gradient trends in climate models will require further emergence of anthropogenic trends. Regardless, the differences in SST gradient trends between climate models and observational data sets are concerning and motivate the need for process-level validation of the atmosphere-ocean dynamics relevant to climate change in the tropical Pacific.

  4. Trends in picture communication


    Speidel, Joachim


    In the past years significant progress was made with digital transmission of audiovisual services and most interesting trends are visible for the future. Such applications encompass interactive services, like videoconferencing, ISDN-videophone, storage of moving video and audio in computers or on CD, e.g. for multimedia applications. For distribution services, there is an unbroken trend from TV to HDTV. Strong emphasis is on compressed digital video even for transmission to the home.

  5. Trends in Business Investment


    Lydon, Reamonn; Scally, John


    This article examines trends in business investment in Ireland. Consistent with the international evidence on investment cycles, we show that business investment in Ireland exhibits large cyclical movements around a long-run trend relative to GDP. Changes in business investment broadly coincide with the overall business cycle, although swings in investment tend to be far greater, with extended periods of both over- and under-investment relative to GDP. The sharp fall in business investment si...

  6. TREND: a program using cumulative sum methods to detect long-term trends in data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cranston, R.J.; Dunbar, R.M.; Jarvis, R.G.


    TREND is a computer program, in FORTRAN, to investigate data for long-term trends that are masked by short-term statistical fluctuations. To do this, it calculates and plots the cumulative sum of deviations from a chosen mean. As a further aid to diagnosis, the procedure can be repeated with a summation of the cumulative sum itself. (author)

  7. Woodworking & housing: Positive trends and actions (United States)

    Urs Buehlmann; Matt Bumgardner; Karen. Koenig


    This exclusive study looks at the housing market's impact on woodworking businesses and the actions taken to increase wood product sales. A majority of the woodworking industry remains intrinsically tied to the housing industry, particularly businesses involved in producing cabinetry, furniture, millwork and components. For that reason, construction market...

  8. Hamiltonian Dynamics and Positive Energy in General Relativity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deser, S. [Physics Department, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA (United States)


    A review is first given of the Hamiltonian formulation of general relativity; the gravitational field is a self-interacting massless spin-two system within the framework of ordinary Lorentz covariant field theory. The recently solved problem of positive-definiteness of the field energy is then discussed. The latter, a conserved functional of the dynamical variables, is shown to have only one extremum, a local minimum, which is the vacuum state (flat space). This implies positive energy for the field, with the vacuum as ground-state. Similar results hold when minimally coupled matter is present. (author)

  9. Trend assessment: applications for hydrology and climate research (United States)

    Kallache, M.; Rust, H. W.; Kropp, J.


    The assessment of trends in climatology and hydrology still is a matter of debate. Capturing typical properties of time series, like trends, is highly relevant for the discussion of potential impacts of global warming or flood occurrences. It provides indicators for the separation of anthropogenic signals and natural forcing factors by distinguishing between deterministic trends and stochastic variability. In this contribution river run-off data from gauges in Southern Germany are analysed regarding their trend behaviour by combining a deterministic trend component and a stochastic model part in a semi-parametric approach. In this way the trade-off between trend and autocorrelation structure can be considered explicitly. A test for a significant trend is introduced via three steps: First, a stochastic fractional ARIMA model, which is able to reproduce short-term as well as long-term correlations, is fitted to the empirical data. In a second step, wavelet analysis is used to separate the variability of small and large time-scales assuming that the trend component is part of the latter. Finally, a comparison of the overall variability to that restricted to small scales results in a test for a trend. The extraction of the large-scale behaviour by wavelet analysis provides a clue concerning the shape of the trend.

  10. Perceptions of the Slow Food Cultural Trend among the Youth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lelia Voinea


    Full Text Available As they become increasingly aware of the importance of healthy eating and of the serious food imbalance caused by the overconsumption of industrial, ultra-processed and superorganoleptic food, consumers are now beginning to turn their attention to food choices guaranteeing both individual health and also of the environment . Thus, in recent years we are witnessing the rise of a cultural trend ‒ Slow Food. Slow Food has become an international movement that advocates for satisfying culinary pleasure, protects biological and cultural diversity, spread taste education, links "green" producers to consumers and believes that gastronomy intersects with politics, agriculture and ecology. Slow Food proposes a holistic approach to food problem, where the economic, sociocultural and environmental aspects are interlinked, being pursued as part of an overall strategy. In order to highlight the manner in which the principles of this cultural trend are perceived by the representatives of the new generation of consumers in Romania, exploratory research marketing was conducted among the students in the second year of the master’s program Quality Management, Expertise and Consumer Protection, from the Faculty of Business and Tourism from the Buchares t University of Economic Studies . The results of this research have shown an insufficient knowledge of Slow Food phenomenon and, especially, the Slow Food network activity in Romania. To show that the Slow Food type of food is a healthier option towards which the future consumer demand should be guided, especially those belonging to the younger generation, an antithetical comparative analysis of the nutritional value of two menus was performed: a suggestive one for the Slow Food feeding style and other one, specific to the fast food style. Slow Food style was considered antithetical to the fast food because many previous studies have shown a preference of the young for the fast-food type products, despite the

  11. Hepatitis C screening trends in a large integrated health system. (United States)

    Linas, Benjamin P; Hu, Haihong; Barter, Devra M; Horberg, Michael


    As new hepatitis C virus (HCV) therapies emerge, only 1%-12% of individuals are screened in the US for HCV infection. Presently, HCV screening trends are unknown. We utilized the Kaiser Permanente Mid-Atlantic States' (KPMAS) data repository to investigate HCV antibody screening between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2012. We identified the proportion screened for HCV and 5-year cumulative incidence of screening, the screening positivity rate, the provider types performing HCV screening, patient-level factors associated with being screened, and trends in screening over time. There were 444,594 patients who met the inclusion criteria. Overall, 15.8% of the cohort was ever screened for HCV. Adult primary care and obstetrics and gynecology providers performed 75.9% of all screening. The overall test positivity rate was 3.8%. Screening was more frequent in younger age groups (P <.0001) and those with a documented history of illicit drug use (P <.0001). Patients with missing drug use history (46.7%) were least likely to be screened (P <.0001). While the rate of HCV screening increased in the later years of the study among those enrolled in KPMAS 2009-2012, only 11.8% were screened by the end of follow-up. Screening for HCV is increasing but remains incomplete. Targeting screening to those with a history of injection drug will not likely expand screening, as nearly half of patients have no documented drug use history. Routine screening is likely the most effective approach to expand HCV screening. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  12. Trending and accuracy of noninvasive hemoglobin monitoring in pediatric perioperative patients. (United States)

    Patino, Mario; Schultz, Lindsay; Hossain, Monir; Moeller, Jennifer; Mahmoud, Mohamed; Gunter, Joel; Kurth, C Dean


    Rainbow Pulse CO-Oximetry technology (Masimo Corporation, Irvine, CA) provides continuous and noninvasive measurement of arterial hemoglobin concentration (SpHb). We assessed the trending and accuracy of SpHb by this innovative monitoring compared with Hb concentration obtained with conventional laboratory techniques (Hb) in children undergoing surgical procedures with potential for substantial blood loss. Hb concentrations were recorded from Pulse CO-Oximetry and a conventional hematology analyzer. Regression analysis and 4-quadrant plot were used to evaluate the trending for changes in SpHb and Hb measurements (ΔSpHb and ΔHb). Bias, precision, and limits of agreement of SpHb and of in vivo adjusted SpHb (SpHb - first bias to HB) compared with Hb were calculated. One hundred fifty-eight SpHb-Hb data pairs and 105 delta pairs (ΔSpHb and ΔHb) from 46 patients aged 2 months to 17 years with Hb ranging from 16.7 to 7.9 g/dL were collected. To evaluate trending, the delta pairs (ΔSpHb and ΔHb) were plotted, which revealed a positive correlation (ΔSpHb = 0.022 + 0.76ΔHb) with correlation coefficient r = 0.76, 95% CI [confidence interval] = 0.57-0.86. The bias and precision of SpHb to Hb and in vivo adjusted SpHb were 0.4 ± 1.3 g/dL and 0.1 ± 1.2 g/dL, respectively; the limits of agreement were -2.0 to 3.2 g/dL before in vivo adjustment and -2.4 to 2.2 g/dL after in vivo adjustment (P value = 0.04). The mean percent bias (from the reference Hb concentration) decreased from 4.1% ± 11.9% to 0.7% ± 11.3% (P value = 0.01). No drift in bias over time was observed during the study procedure. Of patient demographic and physiological factors tested for correlation with the SpHb, only perfusion index at sensor site showed a weak correlation. The accuracy of SpHb in children with normal Hb and mild anemia is similar to that previously reported in adults and is independent of patient demographic and physiological states except for a weak correlation with perfusion index

  13. Trends in Global Gender Inequality (United States)

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn


    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  14. Investigating the effects of tea, water and a positive affect induction on mood and creativity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Einöther, S.J.L.; Baas, M.; Rowson, M.; Giesbrecht, T.


    Positive affect has been shown to be predictive of improved creativity. This study investigated the immediate effect of the tea experience on positive affect and creativity, compared to both a neutral and positive control condition. Regular tea drinkers (N = 150) were allocated to three conditions:

  15. Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L


    Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

  16. Antibiotic resistance and trend of urinary pathogens in general outpatients from a major urban city

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos R. Kiffer


    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We assessed the antimicrobial resistance patterns of pathogens responsible for urinary tract infections (UTI in outpatients in São Paulo, Brazil, as well as the Escherichia coli antimicrobial resistance trend. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Outpatients urine cultures were collected from January 2000 to December 2003. Statistical analysis considered positive results for one bacterial species with colony count > 100,000 CFU/mL. Stratification was done on age group and gender. Statistical tests used included chi-square and the chi-square test for trend to evaluate differences between susceptibility rates among age groups and ordering in the E. coli resistance rates per year, respectively. RESULTS: There were 37,261 positive results with Enterobacteriaceae isolated in 32,530 (87.3% and Gram-positive cocci in 2,570 (6.9% cultures. E. coli had the highest prevalence (71.6%. Susceptibility tests were performed in 31,716 cultures. E. coli had elevated resistance rates (> 30% to ampicillin, trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole, and tetracycline. Significant differences between age groups and ordering among years were observed. CONCLUSIONS: The use of trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole is precluded in the population studied due to elevated resistance rates (> 30% among most prevalent pathogens. Significant resistance rate differences among age groups and years were observed, particularly for fluoroquinolones. Fluoroquinolones should be used with caution. Nitrofurantoin should be used as empirical therapy for primary, non-complicated urinary tract infections.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Grech


    Full Text Available Background: The male-female ratio at birth (M/F: male births divided by total births, which is anticipated to approximate 0.515, has been shown to exhibit latitude gradients and secular trends. Methods: Annual national data for male and female live births for the 15 countries that comprise the former Soviet Union were obtained from the World Health Organisation for the period 1980–2009 (115,167,569 total live births and analysed with contingency tables. Spearman correlation was also carried out to compare percentage annual gross domestic product growth (GDP% – downloaded from the World Bank and M/F. In this context, GDP% is used as a measure for economic hardship or wellbeing within the populace. Results: There have been overall highly significant secular increases in M/F (p < 0.0001 in the countries and regions investigated. M/F is significantly lower in the three more northern regions (Russian Federation, Baltic States and Central Asia. M/F 0.51324, 0.51335-0.51314 than the two more southern regions (Southern Caucasus and Eastern Europe. M/F 0.51654, 0.51635-0.51672. There was a male excess of 113,818 live births.There was a significant positive correlation between GDP% and M/F for Armenia, Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan. There was a significant negative correlation in Estonia. Conclusion: Previous studies have shown that improving socioeconomic conditions increase M/F, and the converse has also been demonstrated. This is a potential influence in this geographical area since this region has relatively recently emerged from communist rule and experienced an overall economic upturn, but is only partially supported using GDP%. Another factor may be the selective termination of female pregnancies. The latitude gradient parallels that of neighbouring Europe but no theory has been put forward to convincingly explain this finding to date.

  18. Trends in the development and updating of the fishing fleet in the Northern Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kuranov Yu. F.


    Full Text Available The practice and need to update and form the production and technical base of fishery enterprises have an increasing impact on performance of the fisheries complex and become decisive when considering the prospects for its development on an innovative basis. The paper examines the current state and development trends of the Northern Basin fishing fleet, its production capabilities in developing available bioresources, the need and prospects for renewal. During the research the influence of the main factors determining the formation of the quantitative and structural composition of the fishing fleet has been shown. The most stable and long-term impact is the state of commercial stocks of aquatic biological resources, their variability under the influence of natural factors and anthropogenic load. The second important factor is institutional changes. Initially, since the beginning of the 1990s, this took place due to the transformation of economic relations, and later – to institutional changes in the legislatively approved principles of granting fishing enterprises the right to access water biological resources. The following data have been presented: adaptation of the fleet's production capacities for specialization of fishing activities, ways of modernization and re-equipment, construction of new vessels, acquisition of vessels being in operation in the countries with developed fisheries. These changes had reduced the fleet's production potential raising its qualitative indicators (productivity, depth of processing of raw materials at sea. At the same time, the noted positive trends have been accompanied by some increase in the aging indicators for all groups and types of vessels. The institutional and economic instruments for supporting and stimulating the construction of new fishing vessels have been justified. Nowadays, in the Northern Basin the priority areas of support should be the construction of ships for pelagic fishing and coastal

  19. Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013 (United States)

    Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.


    We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

  20. Trend patterns in global sea surface temperature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barbosa, S.M.; Andersen, Ole Baltazar


    Isolating long-term trend in sea surface temperature (SST) from El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) variability is fundamental for climate studies. In the present study, trend-empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, a robust space-time method for extracting trend patterns, is applied to iso...

  1. Trends in mortality decrease and economic growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niu, G.; Melenberg, B.


    The vast literature on extrapolative stochastic mortality models focuses mainly on the extrapolation of past mortality trends and summarizes the trends by one or more latent factors. However, the interpretation of these trends is typically not very clear. On the other hand, explanation methods are

  2. Capturing public interest toward new tools for controlling human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection exploiting data from Google Trends. (United States)

    Mahroum, Naim; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Brigo, Francesco; Waknin, Roy; Sharif, Kassem; Mahagna, Hussein; Amital, Howard; Watad, Abdulla


    Human immunodeficiency virus vaccination and pre-exposure prophylaxis represent two different emerging preventive tools. Google Trends was used to assess the public interest toward these tools in terms of digital activities. Worldwide web searches concerning the human immunodeficiency virus vaccine represented 0.34 percent, 0.03 percent, and 46.97 percent of human immunodeficiency virus, acquired immune deficiency syndrome, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome treatment-related Google Trends queries, respectively. Concerning temporal trends, digital activities were shown to increase from 0 percent as of 1 January 2004 percent to 46 percent as of 8 October 2017 with two spikes observed in May and July 2012, coinciding with the US Food and Drug Administration approval. Bursts in search number and volume were recorded as human immunodeficiency virus vaccine trials emerged. This search topic has decreased in the past decade in parallel to the increase in Truvada-related topics. Concentrated searches were noticed among African countries with high human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome prevalence. Stakeholders should take advantage of public interest especially in preventive medicine in high disease burden countries.

  3. Trends in absolute socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Sweden and New Zealand. A 20-year gender perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Blakely Tony


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Both trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, and cross-country comparisons, may give more information about the causes of health inequalities. We analysed trends in socioeconomic differentials by mortality from early 1980s to late 1990s, comparing Sweden with New Zealand. Methods The New Zealand Census Mortality Study (NZCMS consisting of over 2 million individuals and the Swedish Survey of Living Conditions (ULF comprising over 100, 000 individuals were used for analyses. Education and household income were used as measures of socioeconomic position (SEP. The slope index of inequality (SII was calculated to estimate absolute inequalities in mortality. Analyses were based on 3–5 year follow-up and limited to individuals aged 25–77 years. Age standardised mortality rates were calculated using the European population standard. Results Absolute inequalities in mortality on average over the 1980s and 1990s for both men and women by education were similar in Sweden and New Zealand, but by income were greater in Sweden. Comparing trends in absolute inequalities over the 1980s and 1990s, men's absolute inequalities by education decreased by 66% in Sweden and by 17% in New Zealand (p for trend Conclusion Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality were clearly most favourable for men in Sweden. Trends also seemed to be more favourable for men than women in New Zealand. Assuming the trends in male inequalities in Sweden were not a statistical chance finding, it is not clear what the substantive reason(s was for the pronounced decrease. Further gender comparisons are required.

  4. Modern trends in contemporary chemistry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Javed, H.; Pervez, H.; Qadeer, R.


    This publication contains a collection of papers presented at symposium on M odern Trends in Contemporary Chemistry , that was held in Islamabad, Pakistan, March 6-8, 1990. The symposium was divided into five sections for presentation of about 55 scientific and technical papers and 6 review papers. The contents of these papers were of good quality in the widespread concern in new trends of chemistry. The six reviews papers covered fields of ortho metallation reactions, evaluation of heterogeneous electron transfer rate contents, macro reticular ion-exchange resins, spectrochemical analytical techniques, liquid crystal-high technology materials for practical applications and trends in advanced ceramics. (A.B.)

  5. Worldwide trends in dietary sugars intake.


    Wittekind, Anna; Walton, Janette


    Estimating trends in dietary intake data is integral to informing national nutrition policy and monitoring progress towards dietary guidelines. Dietary intake of sugars is a controversial public health issue and guidance in relation to recommended intakes is particularly inconsistent. Published data relating to trends in sugars intake are relatively sparse. The purpose of the present review was to collate and review data from national nutrition surveys to examine changes and trends in dietary...

  6. Recent history of trends in vegetation greenness and large-scale ecosystem disturbances in Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potter, Christopher; Nemani, Ramakrishna; Kumar, Vipin; Klooster, Steven


    Recent patterns of land cover and vegetation dynamics on the Euasian continent have been linked to changes in the global carbon cycle. Our study was conducted to evaluate patterns in a 19-yr record of global satellite observations of terrestrial vegetation from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) as a means to characterize major trends in both vegetation 'greenness' and ecosystem disturbance. The fraction absorbed of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) by vegetation canopies worldwide has been computed from the AVHRR at a monthly time interval from 1982 to 2000 and gridded at a spatial resolution of 8 km globally. Unlike previous studies of the AVHRR multiyear time-series of vegetation dynamics, the 8-km spatial resolution makes it possible to compare disturbance events and greenness trends at the same level of spatial detail. Positive trends in FPAR were detected throughout a major greenbelt of central-eastern Europe starting in the mid-1980s. This Eurasian greenbelt extended in a wide swath over the Urals, into the vicinity of Lake Baykal south of the central Siberian plateau, mainly along a latitude belt from 55 deg N to 65 deg N. There was also significantly positive greening in relatively large areas of Great Britain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, the Caucasus and southern India. Nonetheless, a strong downward trend in the FPAR time-series over most of Eurasia was observed by the end of the 1990s. Throughout the 19-yr time period, Eurasia was also impacted by many notable droughts and other disturbance events that could have substantially offset decadal carbon gains attributed to satellite-observed greening. Large-scale ecosystems disturbance events were identified in the FPAR time-series by locating anomalously low values (FPAR-LO) that lasted longer than 12 consecutive months at any 8-km pixel. We find verifiable evidence of numerous disturbance types across Eurasia, including regional patterns of severe droughts, forest fires and insect

  7. Long-term atmospheric visibility trend in Southeast China, 1973-2010 (United States)

    Deng, Junjun; Du, Ke; Wang, Kai; Yuan, Chung-Shin; Zhao, Juanjuan


    Particulate matter (PM) pollution in Southeast China has been worsening because of the rapid industrial development and urbanization, which have significant negative effects on atmospheric visibility. Characterization of the trend in atmospheric visibility is important for evaluating the impact of PM pollution on the impairment of visual air quality in urban and rural areas. Long-term trend in atmospheric visibility in Southeast China was analyzed for the period of 1973-2010 based on the meteorological data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database using four statistical methods: annual mean visibility, percentages of “very good” visibility and “bad” visibility, ridit analysis, and cumulative percentiles. The relationship of atmospheric extinction with Air Pollution Index (API) was studied. In addition, the effects of recent environment policies on visibility were studied. The results showed that the visibility had decreased in 94% stations of this region and prefecture stations had the highest decreasing trend of -3.1 km/decade during the entire period. The average visibility of all the 17 stations (i.e., region-average) declined at a rate of -2.0 km/decade, with a 38-year average of 18.1 km. Decrease in the percentage of “very good” visibility and increase in the percentage of “bad” visibility existed in 14 and 16 stations, respectively. Region-average percentage of “bad” visibility was in the range of 2.2-21.5%, with an increasing rate of 5.0% per decade, and that of “very good” visibility was 24.4-71.8%, with a decreasing rate of -10.7% per decade. During the entire period, county and prefecture stations had similar changing patterns and trends in visibility, while town stations had the least worsening trends. Region-average visibility was better before 1988 while worse after 1993 when comparing to the entire period, with the transition period of 1988-1993. The worst 20%, 50% and best 20% of region-average visibility

  8. The Precautionary Principle Has Not Been Shown to Be Incoherent: A Reply to Peterson. (United States)

    Boyer-Kassem, Thomas


    In this journal, I have objected to Peterson's 2006 claim that the precautionary principle is an incoherent decision rule. I defend my objections to Peterson's recent replies, and I still claim that the precautionary principle has not been shown to be incoherent. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Trends in Classroom Observation Scores (United States)

    Casabianca, Jodi M.; Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.


    Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from…

  10. Steric and mass-induced Mediterranean sea level trends from 14 years of altimetry data (United States)

    Criado-Aldeanueva, Francisco; Del Río Vera, Jorge; García-Lafuente, Jesús


    Long-term series of almost 14 years of altimetry data (1992-2005) have been analysed along with Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles to investigate sea level trends over the Mediterranean Sea. Although sea level variations are mainly driven by the steric contribution, the mass-induced component plays some role in modulating its oscillation. A spatially averaged positive trend of 2.1 ± 0.6 mm/year has been observed, but a change in sign in 2001 seems to appear. Steric effects (mainly on thermal origin) account for ˜ 55% of sea level trend. Although Mediterranean Sea is a semi-enclosed basin, this value is comparable to that reported for the global ocean. Sea level rise is particularly important in the Levantine basin south of Crete with values up to 10 ± 1 mm/year. Other areas of sea level rise are localised throughout the Levantine basin and in the Adriatic and Alboran Seas, with more moderate values. Sea level drop areas are localised in the Algerian basin, between the Balearic Islands and the African coasts and, particularly, in the Ionian basin. In this area, negative trends as high as - 10 ± 0.8 mm/year are detected mainly due to the mass-induced contribution, which suggests decadal changes of surface circulation. The inferred sea level trends have been correlated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and a low but significant correlation has been detected between sea level in the Levantine and Balearic basins and NAO index.

  11. Lower-tropospheric humidity: climatology, trends and the relation to the ITCZ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander Läderach


    Full Text Available The tropical region is an area of maximum humidity and serves as the major humidity source of the globe. Among other phenomena, it is governed by the so-called Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ which is commonly defined by converging low-level winds or enhanced precipitation. Given its importance as a humidity source, we investigate the humidity fields in the tropics in different reanalysis data sets, deduce the climatology and variability and assess the relationship to the ITCZ. Therefore, a new analysis method of the specific humidity distribution is introduced which allows detecting the location of the humidity maximum, the strength and the meridional extent. The results show that the humidity maximum in boreal summer is strongly shifted northward over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area and the Gulf of Mexico. These shifts go along with a peak in the strength in both areas; however, the extent shrinks over the warm pool/Asia Monsoon area, whereas it is wider over the Gulf of Mexico. In winter, such connections between location, strength and extent are not found. Still, a peak in strength is again identified over the Gulf of Mexico in boreal winter. The variability of the three characteristics is dominated by inter-annual signals in both seasons. The results using ERA-interim data suggest a positive trend in the Gulf of Mexico/Atlantic region from 1979 to 2010, showing an increased northward shift in the recent years. Although the trend is only weakly confirmed by the results using MERRA reanalysis data, it is in phase with a trend in hurricane activity – a possible hint of the importance of the new method on hurricanes. Furthermore, the position of the maximum humidity coincides with one of the ITCZ in most areas. One exception is the western and central Pacific, where the area is dominated by the double ITCZ in boreal winter. Nevertheless, the new method enables us to gain more insight into the humidity distribution, its variability and

  12. Trend analysis of a tropical urban river water quality in Malaysia. (United States)

    Othman, Faridah; M E, Alaa Eldin; Mohamed, Ibrahim


    Rivers play a significant role in providing water resources for human and ecosystem survival and health. Hence, river water quality is an important parameter that must be preserved and monitored. As the state of Selangor and the city of Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, are undergoing tremendous development, the river is subjected to pollution from point and non-point sources. The water quality of the Klang River basin, one of the most densely populated areas within the region, is significantly degraded due to human activities as well as urbanization. Evaluation of the overall river water quality status is normally represented by a water quality index (WQI), which consists of six parameters, namely dissolved oxygen, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, suspended solids, ammoniacal nitrogen and pH. The objectives of this study are to assess the water quality status for this tropical, urban river and to establish the WQI trend. Using monthly WQI data from 1997 to 2007, time series were plotted and trend analysis was performed by employing the first-order autocorrelated trend model on the moving average values for every station. The initial and final values of either the moving average or the trend model were used as the estimates of the initial and final WQI at the stations. It was found that Klang River water quality has shown some improvement between 1997 and 2007. Water quality remains good in the upper stream area, which provides vital water sources for water treatment plants in the Klang valley. Meanwhile, the water quality has also improved in other stations. Results of the current study suggest that the present policy on managing river quality in the Klang River has produced encouraging results; the policy should, however, be further improved alongside more vigorous monitoring of pollution discharge from various point sources such as industrial wastewater, municipal sewers, wet markets, sand mining and landfills, as well as non-point sources such as

  13. World trends from 2017


    Janković Slobodan


    Issue of prognosis, analyses of future trends is companion to statecraft, political, economic and military planning. How we plan, what does IR says about scientific prognosis. Jankovic starts with this set of issues in order to pass into prognosis itself based on observable world trends. He claims that European Union has entered its climax comparing it foreign policy situation with that of war situation of Third Reich in 1943. Article is divided in five parts. After presenting and criticizing...

  14. Rotation vectors for homeomorphisms of non-positively curved manifolds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lessa, Pablo


    Rotation vectors, as defined for homeomorphisms of the torus that are isotopic to the identity, are generalized to such homeomorphisms of any complete Riemannian manifold with non-positive sectional curvature. These generalized rotation vectors are shown to exist for almost every orbit of such a dynamical system with respect to any invariant measure with compact support. The concept is then extended to flows and, as an application, it is shown how non-null rotation vectors can be used to construct a measurable semi-conjugacy between a given flow and the geodesic flow of a manifold

  15. Modern trends in position-sensitive neutron detectors development for condensed matter research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Belushkin, A.V.


    Detecting neutrons is a more complicated task compared to the detection of ionizing particles or ionizing radiation. This is why the variety of neutron detectors is much more limited. Meanwhile, different types of neutron experiments pose specific and often contradictory requirements for detector characteristics. For experiments on the high-intensity neutron sources, the high counting rate is one of the key issues. This is very important, for example, for small-angle neutron scattering and neutron reflectometry. For other experiments, characteristics like detection efficiency, high position resolution, high time resolution, neutron/gamma discrimination, large-area imaging, or compactness, are very important. Today, the cost of the detector also became one of the most important factors. There is no single type of detector which satisfies all the above criteria. Therefore, compromise is inevitable and some of the characteristics are trade off in favor of others. The present report gives an overview of detector systems presently operating at the leading neutron scattering facilities as well as some development work around the globe

  16. A Categorical Content Analysis of Highly Cited Literature Related to Trends and Issues in Special Education. (United States)

    Arden, Sarah V; Pentimonti, Jill M; Cooray, Rochana; Jackson, Stephanie


    This investigation employs categorical content analysis processes as a mechanism to examine trends and issues in a sampling of highly cited (100+) literature in special education journals. The authors had two goals: (a) broadly identifying trends across publication type, content area, and methodology and (b) specifically identifying articles with disaggregated outcomes for students with learning disabilities (LD). Content analyses were conducted across highly cited (100+) articles published during a 20-year period (1992-2013) in a sample ( n = 3) of journals focused primarily on LD, and in one broad, cross-categorical journal recognized for its impact in the field. Results indicated trends in the article type (i.e., commentary and position papers), content (i.e., reading and behavior), and methodology (i.e., small proportions of experimental and quasi-experimental designs). Results also revealed stability in the proportion of intervention research studies when compared to previous analyses and a decline in the proportion of those that disaggregated data specifically for students with LD.

  17. Identification of trend in long term precipitation and reference evapotranspiration over Narmada river basin (India) (United States)

    Pandey, Brij Kishor; Khare, Deepak


    Precipitation and reference evapotranspiration are key parameters in hydro-meteorological studies and used for agricultural planning, irrigation system design and management. Precipitation and evaporative demand are expected to be alter under climate change and affect the sustainable development. In this article, spatial variability and temporal trend of precipitation and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) were investigated over Narmada river basin (India), a humid tropical climatic region. In the present study, 12 and 28 observatory stations were selected for precipitation and ETo, respectively of 102-years period (1901-2002). A rigorous analysis for trend detection was carried out using non parametric tests such as Mann-Kendall (MK) and Spearman Rho (SR). Sen's slope estimator was used to analyze the rate of change in long term series. Moreover, all the stations of basin exhibit positive trend for annual ETo, while 8% stations indicate significant negative trend for mean annual precipitation, respectively. Change points of annual precipitation were identified around the year 1962 applying Buishand's and Pettit's test. Annual mean precipitation reduced by 9% in upper part while increased maximum by 5% in lower part of the basin due temporal changes. Although annual mean ETo increase by 4-12% in most of the region. Moreover, results of the study are very helpful in planning and development of agricultural water resources.

  18. Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany (United States)

    Steiber, Nadia


    This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

  19. Methamphetamine use among newly diagnosed HIV-positive young men in North Carolina, United States, from 2000 to 2005.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher B Hurt


    Full Text Available Methamphetamine (MA is a new arrival to the Southeastern United States (US. Incidence of HIV is also increasing regionally, but data are limited regarding any association between this trend and MA use. We examined behavioral data from North Carolina (NC residents newly diagnosed with HIV, collected by the Department of Health between 2000-2005.Among 1,460 newly diagnosed HIV-positive young men, an increasing trend was seen from 2000-2005 in MA use (p = 0.01, total n = 20. In bivariate analyses, users of MA had significantly greater odds of reporting other substance use, including alcohol, powder or crack cocaine, marijuana, and methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA, "ecstasy". They were also more likely to have reported sexual activity while traveling outside NC; sex with anonymous partners; and previous HIV testing. In a predictive model, MA use had a negative association with nonwhite race, and strong positive associations with powder cocaine, "ecstasy," or intravenous drug use and being a university student.Similar to trends seen in more urban parts of the US, MA use among newly diagnosed, HIV-positive young men is increasing in NC. These data are among the first to demonstrate this relationship in a region with a burgeoning epidemic of MA use. Opportunities exist for MA-related HIV risk-reduction interventions whenever young men intersect the healthcare system.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. M. Garanina


    Full Text Available Introduction. Subject position of a personality is the phenomenon that determines self-activity, identity, sovereignty, and positive dynamics of selfdevelopment, self-education, self-training and self-realization, i.e. those qualities which are necessary for a modern expert. Therefore, the development of the concept of formation and development of a subject position of a future expert during his/her vocational training is an urgent scientific and practical task.The aim of the present research is to prove theoretically the following issues: regularities of a formation process of a subject position of a student of a higher education institution; principles reflecting features of functioning of subject space; and requirements shown to the organization of this pedagogical process.Methodology and research methods. The methods involve the analysis of philosophical and psychology and pedagogical sources on the research problem; transspective, phenomenological, psychological, comparative, system, and structure-functional types of the analysis; deductive and inductive methods; comparison, generalization, synthesis, and abstraction.Results and scientific novelty. The concept «student’s subject position» is redefined; the concept includes such features as polysystemacity, multidimensionality, and multi-functionality. The characteristics of a person with a subject position are summarized; special attention is paid to his/her personal characteristics. The regularities of formation and development of the subject position of the student caused by internal mechanisms of self-updating, self-organization, self-development and self-improvement are found out. It is testified that these regularities are shown in the system of various social relations; depend on external impact, integrity and unity of a teaching and educational process; those regularities are characterized by heterochronism, emergence, and evolving. The research enables to present an overall

  1. Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961-2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Yanling; Achberger, Christine; Linderholm, Hans W


    Using high-quality precipitation data from 524 stations, the trends of a set of precipitation variables during the main rain season (May-September) from 1961 to 2008 for different climate regions in China were analysed. However, different characteristics were displayed in different regions of China. In most temperate monsoon regions (north-eastern China), total rain-season precipitation and precipitation days showed decreasing trends; positive tendencies in precipitation intensity were, however, noted for most stations in this region. It is suggested that the decrease in rain-season precipitation is mainly related to there being fewer rain days and a change towards drier conditions in north-eastern China, and as a result, the available water resources have been negatively affected in the temperate monsoon regions. In most subtropical and tropical monsoon climate regions (south-eastern China), the rain-season precipitation and precipitation days (11-50, with > 50 mm) showed slightly positive trends. However, precipitation days with ≤ 10 mm decreased in these regions. Changes towards wetter conditions in this area, together with more frequent heavy rainfall events causing floods, have a severe impact on peoples' lives and socio-economic development. In general, the rain-season precipitation, precipitation days and rain-season precipitation intensity had all increased in the temperate continental and plateau/mountain regions of western China. This increase in rain-season precipitation has been favourable to pasture growth.

  2. Trends in Energy. 'The consumer decides'; Trends in Energy. 'De consument bepaalt'

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brzezowsky-Ruys, Y.; Van der Zalm, M.; Van Zutphen, M. [eds.


    A report is given of the Capgemini organised congress 'Trends in Energy 2011' which has the Dutch subtitle 'De consument bepaalt' (The consumer decides'. The focus of the articles, interviews, debates and presentations is on the role of the consumer in the supply of and demand for energy. Parts of the report are in Dutch and English [Dutch] Dit rapport bestaat uit een verslag van het congres 'Trends in Energy 2011. De consument bepaalt' en een aantal artikelen met achtergrondinformatie over onder meer de rol van de consument in vraag en aanbod van energie.

  3. Trends in the levels of urine and serum creatinine: data from NHANES 2001-2014. (United States)

    Jain, Ram B


    Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used to study trends for urine and serum creatinine over 2001-2014 for those aged ≥20 years. In the absence of chronic kidney disease, levels of urine creatinine decreased for the total population, for those aged 20-29, 50-59, and ≥70 years, for males, and for Mexican Americans and other race/ethnicities. Levels of serum cotinine also exhibited a decreasing trend over 2001-2014 for the total population, for those aged 20-29 and 40-49 years, for females, and for non-Hispanic whites and Mexican Americans. In general, levels of serum creatinine and urine creatinine were positively correlated for chronic kidney disease stages 1-3 and negatively correlated for chronic kidney disease stages 4 and 5.



    ERTÜRK, Nilay; özüdoğru, şakir


    Fashion, in broad and accepted definition, is any temporary preference or a temporary new thing in any area of human life, which prevails for a certain period of time. The issue of how fashionable products would look like in a particular season is discussed under the concept of fashion trends. The main purpose of this study is to discuss the concept of fashion trends and the studies on predictions in fashion trends, to conduct a sample trend survey for a silhouette and observe whether or not ...

  5. There is no real evidence for a diminishing trend of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Parker


    Full Text Available The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC is part of the great ocean “conveyor belt” that circulates heat around the globe. Since the early 2000s, ocean sensors have started to monitor the AMOC, but the measurements are still far from accurate and the time window does not permit the separation of short term variability from a longer term trend. Other works have claimed that global warming is slowing down the AMOC, based on models and proxies of temperatures. Some other observations demonstrate a stable circulation of the oceans. By using tide gauge data complementing recent satellite and ocean sensor observations, the stability of the AMOC is shown to go back to 1860. It is concluded that no available information has the due accuracy and time coverage to show a clear trend outside the inter-annual and multi-decadal variability in the direction of increasing or decreasing strength over the last decades.

  6. Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behzad Asadieh


    Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

  7. Value of Hipparcos Catalogue shown by planet assessments (United States)


    Catalogue and the distribution of the data to collaborating scientists. The Catalogue lists the positions, distances, motions and brightnesses of 118,000 stars, within a self-consistent framework for the whole sky. The results include remarkable detail on the orbits of double stars and the changing light output of variable stars. Thanks to the unprecedented accuracy of space observations with a specially conceived satellite, the Hipparcos Catalogue gives positions of the stars to much better than a millionth of a degree. This is over one hundred times more accurate than the most careful fixes of stars from observatories on the ground. With the Catalogue's completion, the Hipparcos mission achieves its purpose of revolutionizing astrometry, the positional science that has underpinned mankind's studies of the Universe since the satellite's namesake Hipparchus the Greek surveyed the sky in the 2nd Century BC. Another pioneer of astrometry was Tycho the Dane (16th Century AD) and he is commemorated in a second product of the Hipparcos mission. The Tycho Catalogue, which is nearing completion, lists a far larger number of stars, slightly more than a million. Their positions will be less precise than in the Hipparcos Catalogue, but still far better than the ground-based results, and will include valuable data on the colours of stars. The first chance to cull discoveries from the Hipparcos data resides with the teams in nine European countries who have laboured to achieve this breakthrough in astronomy. For some team members the effort goes back thirty years, to the first proposal of an astrometric satellite in France in 1966. ESA approved the mission in 1980 and Hipparcos was launched in August 1989. Despite finding itself in the wrong orbit, Hipparcos operated successfully until March 1993. Three more years have gone into data analysis, using computers in a dozen institutes across Europe for the most elaborate calculations in the history of astronomy. Members of the teams will

  8. Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. M. Philandras


    Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

    The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

  9. The cosmic censorship hypothesis and the positive energy conjecture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, P.S.; Wald, R.W.


    The position so far is summarized. Penrose derived an inequality; if a data set was found to violate this then the assumptions deriving the inequality must be false. In this case it could show a counter example to the cosmic censorship hypothesis. The authors have shown elsewhere that a positive energy argument of Geroch can be modified to rule out a violation of Penrose's inequality with any time-symmetric initial data set whose apparent horizon consists of a single component. This increases confidence in the hypothesis and also indicates there may be a close relationship between this conjecture and the positive energy conjecture. (UK)

  10. Understanding Trends in Catalytic Activity: The Effect of Adsorbate-Adsorbate Interactions for CO Oxidation Over Transition Metals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grabow, Lars; Larsen, Britt Hvolbæk; Nørskov, Jens Kehlet


    Using high temperature CO oxidation as the example, trends in the reactivity of transition metals are discussed on the basis of density functional theory (DFT) calculations. Volcano type relations between the catalytic rate and adsorption energies of important intermediates are introduced...... and the effect of adsorbate-adsorbate interaction on the trends is discussed. We find that adsorbate-adsorbate interactions significantly increase the activity of strong binding metals (left side of the volcano) but the interactions do not change the relative activity of different metals and have a very small...... influence on the position of the top of the volcano, that is, on which metal is the best catalyst....

  11. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends. (United States)

    Colella, Simone; Falcini, Federico; Rinaldi, Eleonora; Sammartino, Michela; Santoleri, Rosalia


    In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends

  12. Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Colella

    Full Text Available In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity. Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication. Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020 and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I and coastal (i.e., Case II waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However

  13. Sea level trends in Southeast Asian seas (United States)

    Strassburg, M. W.; Hamlington, B. D.; Leben, R. R.; Manurung, P.; Lumban Gaol, J.; Nababan, B.; Vignudelli, S.; Kim, K.-Y.


    Southeast Asian seas span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian oceans. The Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost 2 decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17-year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement with decadal variability associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and related fluctuations of trade winds in the region. The Southeast Asian sea region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer timescales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past 20 years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the Southeast Asian sea region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the Southeast Asian sea regional sea level trends during the 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the Southeast Asian seas will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

  14. Progress on Poverty? New Estimates of Historical Trends Using an Anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure (United States)

    Wimer, Christopher; Fox, Liana; Garfinkel, Irwin; Kaushal, Neeraj; Waldfogel, Jane


    This study examines historical trends in poverty using an anchored version of the U.S. Census Bureau’s recently developed Research Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) estimated back to 1967. Although the SPM is estimated each year using a quasi-relative poverty threshold that varies over time with changes in families’ expenditures on a core basket of goods and services, this study explores trends in poverty using an absolute, or anchored, SPM threshold. We believe the anchored measure offers two advantages. First, setting the threshold at the SPM’s 2012 levels and estimating it back to 1967, adjusted only for changes in prices, is more directly comparable to the approach taken in official poverty statistics. Second, it allows for a better accounting of the roles that social policy, the labor market, and changing demographics play in trends in poverty rates over time, given that changes in the threshold are held constant. Results indicate that unlike official statistics that have shown poverty rates to be fairly flat since the 1960s, poverty rates have dropped by 40 % when measured using a historical anchored SPM over the same period. Results obtained from comparing poverty rates using a pretax/pretransfer measure of resources versus a posttax/posttransfer measure of resources further show that government policies, not market incomes, are driving the declines observed over time. PMID:27352076

  15. Progress on Poverty? New Estimates of Historical Trends Using an Anchored Supplemental Poverty Measure. (United States)

    Wimer, Christopher; Fox, Liana; Garfinkel, Irwin; Kaushal, Neeraj; Waldfogel, Jane


    This study examines historical trends in poverty using an anchored version of the U.S. Census Bureau's recently developed Research Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) estimated back to 1967. Although the SPM is estimated each year using a quasi-relative poverty threshold that varies over time with changes in families' expenditures on a core basket of goods and services, this study explores trends in poverty using an absolute, or anchored, SPM threshold. We believe the anchored measure offers two advantages. First, setting the threshold at the SPM's 2012 levels and estimating it back to 1967, adjusted only for changes in prices, is more directly comparable to the approach taken in official poverty statistics. Second, it allows for a better accounting of the roles that social policy, the labor market, and changing demographics play in trends in poverty rates over time, given that changes in the threshold are held constant. Results indicate that unlike official statistics that have shown poverty rates to be fairly flat since the 1960s, poverty rates have dropped by 40 % when measured using a historical anchored SPM over the same period. Results obtained from comparing poverty rates using a pretax/pretransfer measure of resources versus a post-tax/post-transfer measure of resources further show that government policies, not market incomes, are driving the declines observed over time.

  16. A systematic review and meta-analysis of the prevalence, trends, and geographical distribution of HIV among Chinese female sex workers (2000–2011: implications for preventing sexually transmitted HIV

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