Trends in air concentration and deposition at background monitoring sites in Sweden - major inorganic compounds, heavy metals and ozone

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kindbom, K.; Svensson, Annika; Sjoeberg, K.; Pihl Karlsson, G.

2001-09-01

This report describes concentrations in air of sulphur compounds, soot, nitrogen compounds and ozone in Sweden between 1985-1998. Time trends of concentration in precipitation and deposition of sulphate, nitrate, ammonium, acidity, base cations and chloride in six different regions covering Sweden are evaluated during the period 1983-1998. Trends of heavy metals in precipitation have been analysed for the period 1983-1998 and the change in heavy metal concentration, 1975-1995, in mosses is described. Data used in the trend analyses originates from measurements performed at six Swedish EMEP stations and from approximately 25 stations within the national Precipitation Chemistry Network. Two different statistical methods, linear regression and the non-parametric Mann Kendall test, have been used to evaluate changes in annual mean values. Time trends of concentration of sulphur dioxide, particulate sulphate, soot, nitrogen dioxide, total nitrate and total ammonium in air show highly significant decreasing trends, except for soot at one station in northern Sweden. Concentrations of ozone have a strong seasonal variation with a peak occurring in spring every year. However, annual ozone concentrations show no obvious trends in spite of decreasing emissions of the precursors NOx and VOC. A slight indication of a decreasing trend in the number of ozone episodes might be seen from 1990 to 1998. Sulphate concentrations in precipitation and deposition show strongly significant decreasing trends in the whole country. Concentrations and deposition of nitrate and ammonium have been decreasing in all areas except for nitrate at stations in south-west and north-west Sweden and ammonium in south-west Sweden. Acidity has decreased in all areas since 1989, resulting in increasing pH values in Sweden. The interannual variations of concentration and deposition of base cations and chloride are large and few general trends can be seen during 1983-1997. Time trends of four heavy metals in

Brief communication Decreasing fires in a Mediterranean region (1970–2010, NE Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Turco

2013-03-01

Full Text Available We analyse the recent evolution of fires in Catalonia (north-eastern Iberian Peninsula, a typical Mediterranean region. We examine a homogeneous series of forest fires in the period 1970–2010. During this period, more than 9000 fire events greater than 0.5 ha were recorded, and the total burned area was more than 400 kha. Our analysis shows that both the burned area and number of fire series display a decreasing trend. Superposed onto this general decrease, strong oscillations on shorter time scales are evident. After the large fires of 1986 and 1994, the increased effort in fire prevention and suppression could explain part of the decreasing trend. Although it is often stated that fires have increased in Mediterranean regions, the higher efficiency in fire detection could have led to spurious trends and misleading conclusions.

Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

Science.gov (United States)

Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2016-12-01

Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

Recent change of vegetation growth trend in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peng Shushi; Fang Jingyun; Piao Shilong; Chen, Anping; Xu Liang; Myneni, Ranga B; Cao Chunxiang; Pinzon, Jorge E; Tucker, Compton J

2011-01-01

Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982–99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April–October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007 yr −1 from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982–99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013 yr −1 ) is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003 yr −1 ) and September and October (SO) (0.0008 yr −1 ). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982–2010 compared with that during 1982–99 (0.0012 yr −1 ) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.—Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039 yr −1 ) to slightly decreasing ( − 0.0002 yr −1 ) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020 yr −1 ) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

Recent Change of Vegetation Growth Trend in China

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, Shushi; Chen, Anping; Xu, Liang; Cao, Chunxiang; Fang, Jingyun; Myneni, Ranga B.; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Tucker, COmpton J.; Piao, Shilong

2011-01-01

Using satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, several previous studies have indicated that vegetation growth significantly increased in most areas of China during the period 1982-99. In this letter, we extended the study period to 2010. We found that at the national scale the growing season (April-October) NDVI significantly increased by 0.0007/yr from 1982 to 2010, but the increasing trend in NDVI over the last decade decreased in comparison to that of the 1982-99 period. The trends in NDVI show significant seasonal and spatial variances. The increasing trend in April and May (AM) NDVI (0.0013/yr is larger than those in June, July and August (JJA) (0.0003/yr) and September and October (SO) (0.0008/yr). This relatively small increasing trend of JJA NDVI during 1982-2010 compared with that during 1982-99 (0.0012/yr) (Piao et al 2003 J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 108 4401) implies a change in the JJA vegetation growth trend, which significantly turned from increasing (0.0039/yr) to slightly decreasing (0:0002/yr) in 1988. Regarding the spatial pattern of changes in NDVI, the growing season NDVI increased (over 0.0020/yr) from 1982 to 2010 in southern China, while its change was close to zero in northern China, as a result of a significant changing trend reversal that occurred in the 1990s and early 2000s. In northern China, the growing season NDVI significantly increased before the 1990s as a result of warming and enhanced precipitation, but decreased after the 1990s due to drought stress strengthened by warming and reduced precipitation. Our results also show that the responses of vegetation growth to climate change vary across different seasons and ecosystems.

Ecohydrological Index, Native Fish, and Climate Trends and Relationships in the Kansas River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinnathamby, Sumathy; Douglas-Mankin, Kyle R; Muche, Muluken E; Hutchinson, Stacy L; Anandhi, Aavudai

2018-01-01

This study quantified climatological and hydrological trends and relationships to presence and distribution of two native aquatic species in the Kansas River Basin over the past half-century. Trend analyses were applied to indicators of hydrologic alteration (IHAs) at 34 streamgages over a 50-year period (1962-2012). Results showed a significant negative trend in annual streamflow for 10 of 12 western streamgages (up to -7.65 mm/50 yr) and smaller negative trends for most other streamgages. Significant negative trends in western Basin streamflow were more widespread in summer (12 stations) than winter or spring (6 stations). The negative-trend magnitude and significance decreased from west to east for maximum-flow IHAs. Minimum- flow IHAs, however, significantly decreased at High Plains streamgages but significantly increased at Central Great Plains streamgages. Number of zero-flow days showed positive trends in the High Plains. Most streamgages showed negative trends in low- and high-flow pulse frequency and high-flow pulse duration, and positive trends in low-flow pulse duration. These results were consistent with increasing occurrence of drought. Shift in occurrence from present (1860-1950) to absent (2000-2012) was significantly related (pBasin sites and had different responses to hydrological index trends at eastern Basin sites. These results demonstrate ecohydrological index changes impact distributions of native fish and suggest target factors for assessment or restoration activities.

A climatic deconstruction of recent drought trends in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ficklin, Darren L; Maxwell, Justin T; Gholizadeh, Hamed; Letsinger, Sally L

2015-01-01

We present high spatial-resolution trends of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and selected climate variables from 1979–2013 for the contiguous United States in order to gain an understanding of recent drought trends and their climatic forcings. Based on a spatial grouping analysis, four regions of increasing (upper Midwest, Louisiana, southeastern United States (US), and western US) and decreasing (New England, Pacific Northwest, upper Great Plains, and Ohio River Valley) drought trends based on Mann–Kendall Z values were found. Within these regions, partial correlation and multiple regression for trends in climate variables and PDSI were performed to examine potential climatic controls on these droughts. As expected, there was a US-wide concurrence on drought forcing by precipitation. However, there was correspondence of recent PET trends with recent drought trends in many regions. For regions with an increase in recent droughts, average air temperature was generally the second most important variable after precipitation in determining recent drought trends. Across the regions where recent drought trends are decreasing, there was no clear ranking of climate-variable importance, where trends in average temperature, specific humidity and net radiation all played significant regional roles in determining recent drought trends. Deconstructing the trends in drought show that, while there are regions in the US showing positive and negative trends in drought conditions, the climate forcings for these drought trends are regionally specific. The results of this study allow for the interpretation of the role of the changing hydroclimatic cycle in recent drought trends, which also have implications for the current and impending results of climate change. (letter)

A thirty year, fine-scale, characterization of area burned in Canadian forests shows evidence of regionally increasing trends in the last decade.

Science.gov (United States)

Coops, Nicholas C; Hermosilla, Txomin; Wulder, Michael A; White, Joanne C; Bolton, Douglas K

2018-01-01

Fire as a dominant disturbance has profound implications on the terrestrial carbon cycle. We present the first ever multi-decadal, spatially-explicit, 30 meter assessment of fire regimes across the forested ecoregions of Canada at an annual time-step. From 1985 to 2015, 51 Mha burned, impacting over 6.5% of forested ecosystems. Mean annual area burned was 1,651,818 ha and varied markedly (σ = 1,116,119), with 25% of the total area burned occurring in three years: 1989, 1995, and 2015. Boreal forest types contained 98% of the total area burned, with the conifer-dominated Boreal Shield containing one-third of all burned area. While results confirm no significant national trend in burned area for the period of 1985 to 2015, a significant national increasing trend (α = 0.05) of 11% per year was evident for the past decade (2006 to 2015). Regionally, a significant increasing trend in total burned area from 1985 to 2015 was observed in the Montane Cordillera (2.4% increase per year), while the Taiga Plains and Taiga Shield West displayed significant increasing trends from 2006 to 2015 (26.1% and 12.7% increases per year, respectively). The Atlantic Maritime, which had the lowest burned area of all ecozones (0.01% burned per year), was the only ecozone to display a significant negative trend (2.4% decrease per year) from 1985 to 2015. Given the century-long fire return intervals in many of these ecozones, and large annual variability in burned area, short-term trends need to be interpreted with caution. Additional interpretive cautions are related to year used for trend initiation and the nature and extents of spatial regionalizations used for summarizing findings. The results of our analysis provide a baseline for monitoring future national and regional trends in burned area and offer spatially and temporally detailed insights to inform science, policy, and management.

Smoking trend indicators in Brazilian capitals, 2006-2013

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Deborah Carvalho Malta

2015-03-01

Full Text Available This study aims to analyze the trend of indicators related to smoking in the capitals of Brazil from 2006 to 2013. Information on smoking trends extracted from the survey of risk and protective factors for chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs are analyzed through telephone interviews - VIGITEL conducted from 2006-2013 for the adult population in Brazilian capitals. To estimate the trend, the simple linear regression model was used. The prevalence of smokers in Brazil showed a relative reduction of 0.62% for each year of the survey, ranging from 15.6% in 2006 to 11.3% in 2013. A decrease was observed in both sexes in all age ranges except between 55 and 64 years in all education levels and regions. The total population of former smokers remained stable, with a reduction for men. Smoking 20 or more cigarettes per day decreased from 4.6% (2006 to 3.4% (2013, or 0.162 percentage points per year. Passive smoking at home decreased among women 13.4% (2009 to 10.7% (2013, a reduction of 0.72% per annum. Passive smoking at work has remained stable over the period. The smoking trend reduced in the period in most indicators, reflecting the importance of the tobacco control actions in the country.

Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation in Guizhou province based on GIS technology

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianfeng; Zhang, Fengtai; Pan, Yuanfen; Li, Wei; Cao, Guangjie; An, Youzhi

2018-02-01

Precipitation changes are closely related to human production and life. Based on the data of Guizhou Province from 1998 to 2012, the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation in Guizhou Province were analyzed from the annual, seasonal and monthly scales by linear trend analysis and ArcGIS kriging spatial interpolation. The results show that the annual precipitation is mainly concentrated in the summer, accounting for 47.6% of the year, followed by spring accounted for 26.9%, autumn accounted for 18.6% in winter accounted for 6.9%. In the time, the precipitation in the study area shows a decreasing trend in the annual scale, seasonal scale and July. The overall spatial precipitation distribution shows a decreasing trend from the east to the west. The precipitation also in the south is higher than the northern region.

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,

2015-01-01

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers

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Civan, Aylin; Worrall, Fred; Jarvie, Helen P.; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.

2018-03-01

Given the importance of phosphorus (P) in the eutrophication of natural waters, this study considered the long-term time series of total phosphorus (TP) and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in British rivers from 1974 to 2012. The approach included not only trend analysis of fluxes and concentrations but also change point analysis. TP and TRP concentrations and fluxes in British rivers have declined since the mid-1980s. Over the last decade of the record the majority of individual sites did show significant downward trends in TP and TRP concentrations but, in 28% of cases for TRP concentration and 14% of cases for TP concentration, the decadal trend was a significant increase. Out of 230 sites, 136 showed a significant step decrease in TRP concentration; no sites showed a significant step increase. The modal year for the step changes for both TRP concentration and flux was 1997. Step changes are likely associated with improvements made at sewage treatment works to comply with the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC). The decrease in TRP concentration due to the step change were in the range of 0.68% and 89% with a geometric mean of 22%, with the rest of the decrease accounted by long-term, persistent downward trend.

X-ray sensitive strains of CHO cells show decreased frequency of stable transfection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeggo, P.; Smith, J.

1987-01-01

Six X-ray sensitive (xrs) strains of the Chinese hamster ovary cell line have previously been isolated and shown to have a defect in double strand break rejoining. In this study, these strains have been investigated for their ability to take up and integrate foreign DNA. All the xrs strains investigated so far have shown a decreased frequency of stable transfectants compared to their parent line, in experiments using the plasmid pSV2gpt, which contains the selectable bacterial gene, guanine phosphoribosyl transferase. This decreased frequency is observed over a wide range of DNA concentrations (0.1 to 20 μg DNA) but is more pronounced at higher DNA concentrations. In contrast, these xrs strains show the same level of transfection proficiency as the wild type parent using a transient transfection system with a plasmid containing the bacterial CAT (chloramphenicol acetyl transferase) gene. Since the level of CAT activity does not depend on integration of foreign DNA, this suggests that the xrs strains are able to take up the same amount of DNA as the parent strains, but have a defect in the integration of foreign DNA. Since this integration of foreign DNA probably occurs by non-homologous recombination, this may indicate a role of the xrs gene product in this process

Trends in Job Quality during the Great Recession

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Erhel, Christine; Guergoat-Larivière, Mathilde; Leschke, Janine

and country-level characteristics (institutions and business-cycle indicators) to a possible deterioration in job quality. It shows that some socio-economic groups are more affected by decreasing trends in job quality (other things being equal), especially youth, older workers and low-educated workers. Women......This paper focuses on the consequences of the crisis on job quality in Europe. Its aim is twofold: first, to identify trends in job quality in the EU during the 2007-2009 crisis; secondly, to explore the link between these trends and cyclical as well as institutional factors. It relies on European...... seem less affected by these negative trends than men but are more likely than men to become unemployed or inactive over the period. Cross-country heterogeneity in job quality trends can be related to economic trends (unemployment variation) and, to a minor extent, to the employment distribution...

Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon Basin in the past eight decades

Science.gov (United States)

Satyamurty, Prakki; de Castro, Aline Anderson; Tota, Julio; da Silva Gularte, Lucia Eliane; Manzi, Antonio Ocimar

2010-01-01

Rainfall series at 18 stations along the major rivers of the Brazilian Amazon Basin, having data since 1920s or 1930s, are analyzed to verify if there are appreciable long-term trends. Annual, rainy-season, and dry-season rainfalls are individually analyzed for each station and for the region as a whole. Some stations showed positive trends and some negative trends. The trends in the annual rainfall are significant at only six stations, five of which reporting increasing trends (Barcelos, Belem, Manaus, Rio Branco, and Soure stations) and just one (Itaituba station) reporting decreasing trend. The climatological values of rainfall before and after 1970 show significant differences at six stations (Barcelos, Belem, Benjamin Constant, Iaurete, Itaituba, and Soure). The region as a whole shows an insignificant and weak downward trend; therefore, we cannot affirm that the rainfall in the Brazilian Amazon basin is experiencing a significant change, except at a few individual stations. Subregions with upward and downward trends are interspersed in space from the far eastern Amazon to western Amazon. Most of the seasonal trends follow the annual trends, thus, indicating a certain consistency in the datasets and analysis.

Offshore Blowouts, Causes and Trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holand, P

1996-02-01

The main objective of this doctoral thesis was to establish an improved design basis for offshore installations with respect to blowout risk analyses. The following sub objectives are defined: (1) Establish an offshore blowout database suitable for risk analyses, (2) Compare the blowout risk related to loss of lives with the total offshore risk and risk in other industries, (3) Analyse blowouts with respect to parameters that are important to describe and quantify blowout risk that has been experienced to be able to answer several questions such as under what operations have blowouts occurred, direct causes, frequency of occurrence etc., (4) Analyse blowouts with respect to trends. The research strategy applied includes elements from both survey strategy and case study strategy. The data are systematized in the form of a new database developed from the MARINTEK database. Most blowouts in the analysed period occurred during drilling operations. Shallow gas blowouts were more frequent than deep blowouts and workover blowouts occurred more often than deep development drilling blowouts. Relatively few blowouts occurred during completion, wireline and normal production activities. No significant trend in blowout occurrences as a function of time could be observed, except for completion blowouts that showed a significantly decreasing trend. But there were trends regarding some important parameters for risk analyses, e.g. the ignition probability has decreased and diverter systems have improved. Only 3.5% of the fatalities occurred because of blowouts. 106 refs., 51 figs., 55 tabs.

Trends in the leading causes of death in Korea, 1983-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Daroh; Ha, Mina; Song, Inmyung

2014-12-01

This study aimed to analyze trends in the 10 leading causes of death in Korea from 1983 to 2012. Death rates were derived from the Korean Statistics Information Service database and age-adjusted to the 2010 population. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to identify the points when statistically significant changes occurred in the trends. Between 1983 and 2012, the age-standardized death rate (ASR) from all causes decreased by 61.6% for men and 51.2% for women. ASRs from malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, and transport accidents increased initially before decreasing. ASRs from hypertensive diseases, heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases and diseases of the liver showed favorable trends (ASR % change: -94.4%, -53.8%, -76.0%, and -78.9% for men, and -77.1%, -36.5%, -67.8%, and -79.9% for women, respectively). ASRs from pneumonia decreased until the mid-1990s and thereafter increased. ASRs from intentional self-harm increased persistently since around 1990 (ASR % change: 122.0% for men and 217.4% for women). In conclusion, death rates from all causes in Korea decreased significantly in the last three decades except in the late 1990s. Despite the great strides made in the overall mortality, temporal trends varied widely by cause. Mortality trends for malignant neoplasms, diabetes mellitus, pneumonia and intentional self-harm were unfavorable.

Pneumonia mortality trends in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012

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Rosemeire de Olanda Ferraz

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze the temporal trends in pneumonia mortality rates (standardized by age, using the 2010 population of Brazil as the standard in all Brazilian geographical regions between 1996 and 2012. Methods: This was an ecological time-series study examining secondary data from the Mortality Database maintained by the Information Technology Department of the Brazilian Unified Health Care System. Polynomial and joinpoint regression models, and corresponding 95% CIs, were used for trend analysis. Results: The pneumonia mortality rates in the South, Southeast, and Central-West showed a decreasing behavior until 2000, followed by increases, whereas, in the North and Northeast, they showed increasing trends virtually throughout the period studied. There was variation in annual percent change in pneumonia mortality rates in all regions except the North. The Central-West had the greatest decrease in annual percent change between 1996 and 2000, followed by an increase of the same magnitude until 2005. The 80 years and over age group was the one most influencing the trend behavior of pneumonia mortality rates in all regions. Conclusions: In general, pneumonia mortality trends reversed, with an important increase occurring in the years after 2000.

Temperature Trend Detection in Upper Indus Basin by Using Mann-Kendall Test

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Ateeq Ur Rauf

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Global warming and Climate change are commonly acknowledged as the most noteworthy environmental quandary the world is undergoing today. Contemporary studies have revealed that the Earth’s surface air temperature has augmented by 0.6°C – 0.8°C in the course of the 20th century, together with alterations in the hydrological cycle. This study focuses on detecting trends in seasonal temperature for the five selected stations in the Upper Indus Basin. The Mann-Kendall test was run at 5% significance level on time series data for each of the five stations during the time period, 1985 to 2014. The Standard Test Statistic (Zs indicates the presence of trend and whether it is increasing or decreasing. The analysis showed an increasing trend in mean monthly temperature at Astore, Gilgit and Gupiz in March and a decreasing trend for Astore, Drosh, Gilgit and Skardu in September. Gilgit and Gupiz showed unexpected increasing trend in October. This study concludes that the temperature starts increasing in March and stays elevated till the month of June and starts rising again in October thus resulting in expansion of summer season and prolonged glacial melting.

Aerosol optical depth trend over the Middle East

KAUST Repository

Klingmüller, Klaus

2016-04-22

We use the combined Dark Target/Deep Blue aerosol optical depth (AOD) satellite product of the moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) collection 6 to study trends over the Middle East between 2000 and 2015. Our analysis corroborates a previously identified positive AOD trend over large parts of the Middle East during the period 2001 to 2012. We relate the annual AOD to precipitation, soil moisture and surface winds to identify regions where these attributes are directly related to the AOD over Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran. Regarding precipitation and soil moisture, a relatively small area in and surrounding Iraq turns out to be of prime importance for the AOD over these countries. Regarding surface wind speed, the African Red Sea coastal area is relevant for the Saudi Arabian AOD. Using multiple linear regression we show that AOD trends and interannual variability can be attributed to soil moisture, precipitation and surface winds, being the main factors controlling the dust cycle. Our results confirm the dust driven AOD trends and variability, supported by a decreasing MODIS-derived Ångström exponent and a decreasing AERONET-derived fine mode fraction that accompany the AOD increase over Saudi Arabia. The positive AOD trend relates to a negative soil moisture trend. As a lower soil moisture translates into enhanced dust emissions, it is not needed to assume growing anthropogenic aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions to explain the observations. Instead, our results suggest that increasing temperature and decreasing relative humidity in the last decade have promoted soil drying, leading to increased dust emissions and AOD; consequently an AOD increase is expected due to climate change.

Failure of CMIP5 climate models in simulating post-1950 decreasing trend of Indian monsoon

Science.gov (United States)

Saha, Anamitra; Ghosh, Subimal; Sahana, A. S.; Rao, E. P.

2014-10-01

Impacts of climate change on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) and the growing population pose a major threat to water and food security in India. Adapting to such changes needs reliable projections of ISMR by general circulation models. Here we find that, majority of new generation climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase5 (CMIP5) fail to simulate the post-1950 decreasing trend of ISMR. The weakening of monsoon is associated with the warming of Southern Indian Ocean and strengthening of cyclonic formation in the tropical western Pacific Ocean. We also find that these large-scale changes are not captured by CMIP5 models, with few exceptions, which is the reason of this failure. Proper representation of these highlighted geophysical processes in next generation models may improve the reliability of ISMR projections. Our results also alert the water resource planners to evaluate the CMIP5 models before using them for adaptation strategies.

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables in the north of Iran

Science.gov (United States)

Nikzad Tehrani, E.; Sahour, H.; Booij, M. J.

2018-04-01

Trend analysis of climate variables such as streamflow, precipitation, and temperature provides useful information for understanding the hydrological changes associated with climate change. In this study, a nonparametric Mann-Kendall test was employed to evaluate annual, seasonal, and monthly trends of precipitation and streamflow for the Neka basin in the north of Iran over a 44-year period (1972 to 2015). In addition, the Inverse Distance Weight (IDW) method was used for annual seasonal, monthly, and daily precipitation trends in order to investigate the spatial correlation between precipitation and streamflow trends in the study area. Results showed a downward trend in annual and winter precipitation (Z basin decreased by 14% significantly, but the annual maximum daily flow increased by 118%. Results for the trend analysis of streamflow and climatic variables showed that there are statistically significant relationships between precipitation and streamflow (p value basins (Sefidchah, Gelvard, Abelu). In general, from a hydro-climatic point of view, the results showed that the study area is moving towards a situation with more severe drought events.

Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

2017-12-01

Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

Trends analysis of PM source contributions and chemical tracers in NE Spain during 2004–2014: a multi-exponential approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Pandolfi

2016-09-01

Full Text Available In this work for the first time data from two twin stations (Barcelona, urban background, and Montseny, regional background, located in the northeast (NE of Spain, were used to study the trends of the concentrations of different chemical species in PM10 and PM2.5 along with the trends of the PM10 source contributions from the positive matrix factorization (PMF model. Eleven years of chemical data (2004–2014 were used for this study. Trends of both species concentrations and source contributions were studied using the Mann–Kendall test for linear trends and a new approach based on multi-exponential fit of the data. Despite the fact that different PM fractions (PM2.5, PM10 showed linear decreasing trends at both stations, the contributions of specific sources of pollutants and of their chemical tracers showed exponential decreasing trends. The different types of trends observed reflected the different effectiveness and/or time of implementation of the measures taken to reduce the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants. Moreover, the trends of the contributions of specific sources such as those related with industrial activities and with primary energy consumption mirrored the effect of the financial crisis in Spain from 2008. The sources that showed statistically significant downward trends at both Barcelona (BCN and Montseny (MSY during 2004–2014 were secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate, and V–Ni-bearing source. The contributions from these sources decreased exponentially during the considered period, indicating that the observed reductions were not gradual and consistent over time. Conversely, the trends were less steep at the end of the period compared to the beginning, thus likely indicating the attainment of a lower limit. Moreover, statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for the contributions to PM from the industrial/traffic source at MSY (mixed metallurgy and road traffic and from the industrial (metallurgy

Watershed-scale changes in terrestrial nitrogen cycling during a period of decreased atmospheric nitrate and sulfur deposition

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Sabo, Robert D.; Scanga, Sara E.; Lawrence, Gregory B.; Nelson, David M.; Eshleman, Keith N.; Zabala, Gabriel A.; Alinea, Alexandria A.; Schirmer, Charles D.

2016-01-01

Recent reports suggest that decreases in atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition throughout Europe and North America may have resulted in declining nitrate export in surface waters in recent decades, yet it is unknown if and how terrestrial N cycling was affected. During a period of decreased atmospheric N deposition, we assessed changes in forest N cycling by evaluating trends in tree-ring δ15N values (between 1980 and 2010; n = 20 trees per watershed), stream nitrate yields (between 2000 and 2011), and retention of atmospherically-deposited N (between 2000 and 2011) in the North and South Tributaries (North and South, respectively) of Buck Creek in the Adirondack Mountains, USA. We hypothesized that tree-ring δ15N values would decline following decreases in atmospheric N deposition (after approximately 1995), and that trends in stream nitrate export and retention of atmospherically deposited N would mirror changes in tree-ring δ15N values. Three of the six sampled tree species and the majority of individual trees showed declining linear trends in δ15N for the period 1980–2010; only two individual trees showed increasing trends in δ15N values. From 1980 to 2010, trees in the watersheds of both tributaries displayed long-term declines in tree-ring δ15N values at the watershed scale (R = −0.35 and p = 0.001 in the North and R = −0.37 and p <0.001 in the South). The decreasing δ15N trend in the North was associated with declining stream nitrate concentrations (−0.009 mg N L−1 yr−1, p = 0.02), but no change in the retention of atmospherically deposited N was observed. In contrast, nitrate yields in the South did not exhibit a trend, and the watershed became less retentive of atmospherically deposited N (−7.3% yr−1, p < 0.001). Our δ15N results indicate a change in terrestrial N availability in both watersheds prior to decreases in atmospheric N deposition, suggesting that decreased atmospheric N deposition was not the sole driver of

Streamflow Trends and Responses to Climate Variability and Land Cover Change in South Dakota

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Karishma Niloy Kibria

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Trends in high, moderate, and low streamflow conditions from United States Geological Survey (USGS gauging stations were evaluated for a period of 1951–2013 for 18 selected watersheds in South Dakota (SD using a modified Mann-Kendall test. Rainfall trends from 21 rainfall observation stations located within 20-km of the streamflow gauging stations were also evaluated for the same study period. The concept of elasticity was used to examine sensitivity of streamflow to variation in rainfall and land cover (i.e., grassland in the study watersheds. Results indicated significant increasing trends in seven of the studied streams (of which five are in the east and two are located in the west, nine with slight increasing trends, and two with decreasing trends for annual streamflow. About half of the streams exhibited significant increasing trends in low and moderate flow conditions compared to high flow conditions. Ten rainfall stations showed slight increasing trends and seven showed decreasing trends for annual rainfall. Streamflow elasticity analysis revealed that streamflow was highly influenced by rainfall across the state (five of eastern streams and seven of western streams. Based on this analysis, a 10% increase in annual rainfall would result in 11%–30% increase in annual streamflow in more than 60% of SD streams. While streamflow appears to be more sensitive to rainfall across the state, high sensitivity of streamflow to rapid decrease in grassland area was detected in two western watersheds. This study provides valuable insight into of the relationship between streamflow, climate, and grassland cover in SD and would support further research and stakeholder decision making about water resources.

Rats with decreased brain cholecystokinin levels show increased responsiveness to peripheral electrical stimulation-induced analgesia.

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Zhang, L X; Li, X L; Wang, L; Han, J S

1997-01-16

Using the P77PMC strain of rat, which is genetically prone to audiogenic seizures, and also has decreased levels of cholecystokinin (CCK), we examined the analgesic response to peripheral electrical stimulation, which is, in part, opiate-mediated. A number of studies have suggested that CCK may function as an antagonist to endogenous opiate effects. Therefore, we hypothesized that the P77PMC animals would show an enhanced analgesic response based on their decreased CCK levels producing a diminished endogenous opiate antagonism. We found that the analgesic effect on tail flick latency produced by 100 Hz peripheral electrical stimulation was more potent and longer lasting in P77PMC rats than in control rats. Moreover, the potency of the stimulation-produced analgesia correlated with the vulnerability to audiogenic seizures in these rats. We were able to block the peripheral electrical stimulation-induced analgesia (PSIA) using a cholecystokinin octapeptide (CCK-8) administered parenterally. Radioimmunoassay showed that the content of CCK-8 in cerebral cortex, hippocampus and periaqueductal gray was much lower in P77PMC rat than in controls. These results suggest that low CCK-8 content in the central nervous system of the P77PMC rats may be related to the high analgesic response to peripheral electrical stimulation, and further support the notion that CCK may be endogenous opiate antagonist.

Long-term trends in total inorganic nitrogen and sulfur deposition in the US from 1990 to 2010

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Y. Zhang

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Excess deposition (including both wet and dry deposition of nitrogen and sulfur is detrimental to ecosystems. Recent studies have investigated the spatial patterns and temporal trends of nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition, but few studies have focused on dry deposition due to the scarcity of dry deposition measurements. Here, we use long-term model simulations from the coupled Weather Research and Forecasting and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ model covering the period from 1990 to 2010 to study changes in spatial distribution as well as temporal trends in total (TDEP, wet (WDEP, and dry deposition (DDEP of total inorganic nitrogen (TIN and sulfur (TS in the United States (US. We first evaluate the model's performance in simulating WDEP over the US by comparing the model results with observational data from the US National Atmospheric Deposition Program. The coupled model generally underestimates the WDEP of both TIN (including both the oxidized nitrogen deposition, TNO3, and the reduced nitrogen deposition, NHx and TS, with better performance in the eastern US than the western US. The underestimation of the wet deposition by the model is mainly caused by the coarse model grid resolution, missing lightning NOx emissions, and the poor temporal and spatial representation of NH3 emissions. TDEP of both TIN and TS shows significant decreases over the US, especially in the east, due to the large emission reductions that occurred in that region. The decreasing trends of TIN TDEP are caused by decreases in TNO3, and the increasing trends of TIN deposition over the Great Plains and Tropical Wet Forests (Southern Florida Coastal Plain regions are caused by increases in NH3 emissions, although it should be noted that these increasing trends are not significant. TIN WDEP shows decreasing trends throughout the US, except for the Marine West Coast Forest region. TIN DDEP shows significant decreasing trends in the Eastern Temperate Forests

Non-parametric trend analysis of the aridity index for three large arid and semi-arid basins in Iran

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Ahani, Hossien; Kherad, Mehrzad; Kousari, Mohammad Reza; van Roosmalen, Lieke; Aryanfar, Ramin; Hosseini, Seyyed Mashaallah

2013-05-01

Currently, an important scientific challenge that researchers are facing is to gain a better understanding of climate change at the regional scale, which can be especially challenging in an area with low and highly variable precipitation amounts such as Iran. Trend analysis of the medium-term change using ground station observations of meteorological variables can enhance our knowledge of the dominant processes in an area and contribute to the analysis of future climate projections. Generally, studies focus on the long-term variability of temperature and precipitation and to a lesser extent on other important parameters such as moisture indices. In this study the recent 50-year trends (1955-2005) of precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and aridity index (AI) in monthly time scale were studied over 14 synoptic stations in three large Iran basins using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. Additionally, an analysis of the monthly, seasonal and annual trend of each parameter was performed. Results showed no significant trends in the monthly time series. However, PET showed significant, mostly decreasing trends, for the seasonal values, which resulted in a significant negative trend in annual PET at five stations. Significant negative trends in seasonal P values were only found at a number of stations in spring and summer and no station showed significant negative trends in annual P. Due to the varied positive and negative trends in annual P and to a lesser extent PET, almost as many stations with negative as positive trends in annual AI were found, indicating that both drying and wetting trends occurred in Iran. Overall, the northern part of the study area showed an increasing trend in annual AI which meant that the region became wetter, while the south showed decreasing trends in AI.

Cancer burden trends in Umbria region using a joinpoint regression

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Giuseppe Michele Masanotti

2015-09-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION. The analysis of the epidemiological data on cancer is an important tool to control and evaluate the outcomes of primary and secondary prevention, the effectiveness of health care and, in general, all cancer control activities. MATERIALS AND METHODS. The aim of the this paper is to analyze the cancer mortality in the Umbria region from 1978 to 2009 and incidence from 1994-2008. Sex and site-specific trends for standardized rates were analyzed by "joinpoint regression", using the surveillance epidemiology and end results (SEER software. RESULTS. Applying the jointpoint analyses by sex and cancer site, to incidence spanning from 1994 to 2008 and mortality from 1978 to 2009 for all sites, both in males and females, a significant joinpoint for mortality was found; moreover the trend shape was similar and the joinpoint years were very close. In males standardized rate significantly increased up to 1989 by 1.23% per year and significantly decreased thereafter by -1.31%; among females the mortality rate increased in average of 0.78% (not significant per year till 1988 and afterward significantly decreased by -0.92% per year. Incidence rate showed different trends among sexes. In males was practically constant over the period studied (not significant increase 0.14% per year, in females significantly increased by 1.49% per year up to 2001 and afterward slowly decreased (-0.71% n.s. estimated annual percent change − EAPC. CONCLUSIONS. For all sites combined trends for mortality decreased since late '80s, both in males and females; such behaviour is in line with national and European Union data. This work shows that, even compared to health systems that invest more resources, the Umbria public health system achieved good health outcomes.

Trends in atmospheric deposition fluxes of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hůnová, Iva; Maznová, Jana; Kurfürst, Pavel

2014-01-01

We present the temporal trends and spatial changes of deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Czech forests based on records from long-term monitoring. A statistically significant trend for sulphur was detected at most of the sites measuring for wet, dry, and total deposition fluxes and at many of these the trend was also present for the period after 2000. The spatial pattern of the changes in sulphur deposition flux between 1995 and 2011 shows the decrease over the entire forested area in a wide range of 18.1–0.2 g m −2 year −1 with the most pronounced improvement in formerly most impacted regions. Nitrogen still represents a considerable stress in many areas. The value of nitrogen deposition flux of 1 g m −2 year −1 is exceeded over a significant portion of the country. On an equivalent basis, the ion ratios of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− and NH 4 + /SO 4 2− in precipitation show significantly increasing trends in time similarly to those of pH. -- Highlights: • Significant decrease of sulphur deposition at most of sites has been recorded. • Nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests. • Significantly increasing trends of NO 3 − /SO 4 2− , NH 4 + /SO 4 2− , and pH in precipitation. -- While sulphur deposition significantly decreased with the highest improvement in formerly most affected areas, nitrogen deposition still represents a considerable stress in Czech forests

Response of surface water chemistry to reduced levels of acid precipitation: Comparison of trends in two regions of New York, USA

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Burns, Douglas A.; McHale, M.R.; Driscoll, C.T.; Roy, K.M.

2006-01-01

In light of recent reductions in sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) emissions mandated by Title IV of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, temporal trends and trend coherence in precipitation (1984-2001 and 1992-2001) and surface water chemistry (1992-2001) were determined in two of the most acid-sensitive regions of North America, i.e. the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of New York. Precipitation chemistry data from six sites located near these regions showed decreasing sulphate (SO42-), nitrate (NO3-), and base cation (CB) concentrations and increasing pH during 1984-2001, but few significant trends during 1992-2001. Data from five Catskill streams and 12 Adirondack lakes showed decreasing trends in SO42- concentrations at all sites, and decreasing trends in NO3-, CB, and H+ concentrations and increasing trends in dissolved organic carbon at most sites. In contrast, acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC increased significantly at only about half the Adirondack lakes and in one of the Catskill streams. Flow correction prior to trend analysis did not change any trend directions and had little effect on SO42- trends, but it caused several significant non-flow-corrected trends in NO3- and ANC to become non-significant, suggesting that trend results for flow-sensitive constituents are affected by flow-related climate variation. SO42- concentrations showed high temporal coherence in precipitation, surface waters, and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, reflecting a strong link between S emissions, precipitation SO42- concentrations, and the processes that affect S cycling within these regions. NO3- and H+ concentrations and ANC generally showed weak coherence, especially in surface waters and in precipitation-surface water comparisons, indicating that variation in local-scale processes driven by factors such as climate are affecting trends in acid-base chemistry in these two regions. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The readability of scientific texts is decreasing over time

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Clarity and accuracy of reporting are fundamental to the scientific process. Readability formulas can estimate how difficult a text is to read. Here, in a corpus consisting of 709,577 abstracts published between 1881 and 2015 from 123 scientific journals, we show that the readability of science is steadily decreasing. Our analyses show that this trend is indicative of a growing use of general scientific jargon. These results are concerning for scientists and for the wider public, as they impact both the reproducibility and accessibility of research findings. PMID:28873054

Secular trends in hip fractures worldwide: opposing trends East versus West.

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Ballane, Ghada; Cauley, Jane A; Luckey, Marjorie M; Fuleihan, Ghada El-Hajj

2014-08-01

Despite wide variations in hip rates fractures worldwide, reasons for such differences are not clear. Furthermore, secular trends in the age-specific hip fracture rates are changing the world map of this devastating disease, with the highest rise projected to occur in developing countries. The aim of our investigation is to systematically characterize secular trends in hip fractures worldwide, examine new data for various ethnic groups in the United States, evidence for divergent temporal patterns, and investigate potential contributing factors for the observed change in their epidemiology. All studies retrieved through a complex Medline Ovid search between 1966 and 2013 were examined. For each selected study, we calculated the percent annual change in age-standardized hip fracture rates de-novo. Although occurring at different time points, trend breaks in hip fracture incidence occurred in most Western countries and Oceania. After a steep rise in age-adjusted rates in these regions, a decrease became evident sometimes between the mid-seventies and nineties, depending on the country. Conversely, the data is scarce in Asia and South America, with evidence for a continuous rise in hip fracture rates, with the exception of Hong-Kong and Taiwan that seem to follow Western trends. The etiologies of these secular patterns in both the developed and the developing countries have not been fully elucidated, but the impact of urbanization is at least one plausible explanation. Data presented here show close parallels between rising rates of urbanization and hip fractures across disparate geographic locations and cultures. Once the proportion of the urban population stabilized, hip fracture rates also stabilize or begin to decrease perhaps due to the influence of other factors such as birth cohort effects, changes in bone mineral density and BMI, osteoporosis medication use and/or lifestyle interventions such as smoking cessation, improvement in nutritional status and fall

Glacier albedo decrease in the European Alps: potential causes and links with mass balances

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Di Mauro, Biagio; Julitta, Tommaso; Colombo, Roberto

2016-04-01

Both mountain glaciers and polar ice sheets are losing mass all over the Earth. They are highly sensitive to climate variation, and the widespread reduction of glaciers has been ascribed to the atmospheric temperature increase. Beside this driver, also ice albedo plays a fundamental role in defining mass balance of glaciers. In fact, dark ice absorbs more energy causing faster glacier melting, and this can drive to more negative balances. Previous studies showed that the albedo of Himalayan glaciers and the Greenland Ice Sheet is decreasing with important rates. In this contribution, we tested the hypothesis that also glaciers in the European Alps are getting darker. We analyzed 16-year time series of MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer) snow albedo from Terra (MOD13A1, 2000-2015) and Aqua (MYD13A1, 2002-2015) satellites. These data feature a spatial resolution of 500m and a daily temporal resolution. We evaluated the existence of a negative linear and nonlinear trend of the summer albedo values both at pixel and at glacier level. We also calculated the correlation between MODIS summer albedo and glacier mass balances (from the World Glaciological Monitoring Service, WGMS database), for all the glaciers with available mass balance during the considered period. In order to estimate the percentage of the summer albedo that can be explained by atmospheric temperature, we correlated MODIS albedo and monthly air temperature extracted from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset. Results show that decreasing trends exist with a strong spatial variability in the whole Alpine chain. In large glaciers, such as the Aletch (Swiss Alps), the trend varies significantly also within the glacier, showing that the trend is higher in the area across the accumulation and ablation zone. Over the 17 glaciers with mass balance available in the WGMS data set, 11 gave significant relationship with the MODIS summer albedo. Moreover, the comparison between ERA-Interim temperature

Historical Trends in Mean and Extreme Runoff and Streamflow Based on Observations and Climate Models

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Behzad Asadieh

2016-05-01

Full Text Available To understand changes in global mean and extreme streamflow volumes over recent decades, we statistically analyzed runoff and streamflow simulated by the WBM-plus hydrological model using either observational-based meteorological inputs from WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, or bias-corrected inputs from five global climate models (GCMs provided by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP. Results show that the bias-corrected GCM inputs yield very good agreement with the observation-based inputs in average magnitude of runoff and streamflow. On global average, the observation-based simulated mean runoff and streamflow both decreased about 1.3% from 1971 to 2001. However, GCM-based simulations yield increasing trends over that period, with an inter-model global average of 1% for mean runoff and 0.9% for mean streamflow. In the GCM-based simulations, relative changes in extreme runoff and extreme streamflow (annual maximum daily values and annual-maximum seven-day streamflow are slightly greater than those of mean runoff and streamflow, in terms of global and continental averages. Observation-based simulations show increasing trend in mean runoff and streamflow for about one-half of the land areas and decreasing trend for the other half. However, mean and extreme runoff and streamflow based on the GCMs show increasing trend for approximately two-thirds of the global land area and decreasing trend for the other one-third. Further work is needed to understand why GCM simulations appear to indicate trends in streamflow that are more positive than those suggested by climate observations, even where, as in ISI-MIP, bias correction has been applied so that their streamflow climatology is realistic.

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men.

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Jee, Yon Ho; Shin, Aesun; Lee, Jong-Keun; Oh, Chang-Mo

2016-12-05

Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984-2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC): -3.1 (95% CI, -4.6 to -1.6)) and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC -2.4 (95% CI -2.7 to -2.2)). The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC -2.5 (95% CI -4.1 to -0.8)) and from 2002 to 2013 (APC -5.2 (95% CI -5.7 to -4.7)) and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC): -3.3 (95% CI -4.7 to -1.8)). By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates.

Googling trends in conservation biology.

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Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

2014-02-01

Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Decreased Identification of Vesicoureteral Reflux: A Cautionary Tale

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Aslam Hyder Qureshi

2017-08-01

Full Text Available AimTo find the trend in patient’s visits to our centers for vesicoureteral reflux (VUR. We hypothesize that VUR diagnosis and hence possible nephropathy recognition may be diminishing because of changing practice patterns.MethodsData were extracted from electronic medical records for new and follow-up patients aged 0–18 years with ICD-9/10 codes to correspond with VUR, VUR unilateral, VUR bilateral, and VUR with reflux nephropathy, as well as new patients with diagnoses of urinary tract infections (UTI and pyelonephritis at two major pediatric centers from 2012 to 2015. Figures and statistics to reflect absolute clinic visits and annual trends were created with SPSS 2010. Linear regression was applied.ResultsAnnually, Le Bonheur Children’s Hospital and Nationwide Children’s Hospital experienced an average decrease of 13 and 17% in total VUR visits, and an average decrease of 22 and 27% in VUR nephropathy visits, respectively, for each institution. Patient visits for UTIs were reduced an average of 16% annually in both centers. Linear regression demonstrated that number of patients (patients/year ± SE decreased annually 69 ± 19 (P = 0.02, 7 ± 2 (P = 0.02, and 67 ± 25 (P = 0.04 for VUR, VUR nephropathy, and UTI, respectively.ConclusionWe conclude that the decreased number of VUR and VUR nephropathy cases identified in subspecialty clinics (Nephrology/Urology at two major children’s hospitals reflect a possible decreased identification of VUR. This trend may also be due to decreased referral of low grade cases of VUR. We cannot conclude that “undifferentiated UTI” referrals increased concomitantly to account for the decreased VUR as our data reflects a decreased trend in those visits as well. We suggest that clinicians following the American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines ensure that all UTI are accounted for and surveillance is appropriately escalated for recurrent UTI or abnormal imaging results.

Observed precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment from 1951 to 2002

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

SUBuda; JIANGTong; SHIYafeng; StefanBECKER; MracoGEMMER

2004-01-01

The monthly, seasonal, and annual precipitation trends in the Yangtze river catchment have been detected through analysis of 51 meteorological stations' data between 1950-2002 provided by National Meteorological Administration. Results reveal that: 1) Summer precipitation in the Yangtze river catchment shows significant increasing tendency. The Poyanghu lake basin, Dongtinghu lake basin and Taihu lake basin in the middle and lower reaches are the places showing significant positive trends. Summer precipitation in the middle and lower reaches experienced an abrupt change in the year 1992; 2) The monthly precipitation in months just adjoining to summer shows decreasing tendency in the Yangtze river catchment. The upper and middle reaches in Jialingjiang river basin and Hanshui river basin are the places showing significant negative trends; 3) Extreme precipitation events show an increasing tendency in most places, especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze river catchment.

Prevailing trends of climatic extremes across Indus-Delta of Sindh-Pakistan

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Abbas, Farhat; Rehman, Iqra; Adrees, Muhammad; Ibrahim, Muhammad; Saleem, Farhan; Ali, Shafaqat; Rizwan, Muhammad; Salik, Muhammad Raza

2018-02-01

This study examines the variability and change in the patterns of climatic extremes experienced in Indus-Delta of Sindh province of Pakistan, comprising regions of Karachi, Badin, Mohenjodaro, and Rohri. The homogenized daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data for a 36-year period were used to calculate 13 and 11 indices of temperature and precipitation extremes with the help of RClimDex, a program written in the statistical software package R. A non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimates were used to determine the statistical significance and magnitude of the calculated trend. Temperatures of summer days and tropical nights increased in the region with overall significant warming trends for monthly maximum temperature as well as for warm days and nights reflecting dry conditions in the study area. The warm extremes and nighttime temperature indices showed greater trends than cold extremes and daytime indices depicting an overall warming trends in the Delta. Historic decrease in the acreage of major crops and over 33% decrease in agriculture credit for Sindh are the indicators of adverse impacts of warmer and drier weather on Sindh agriculture. Trends reported for Karachi and Badin are expected to decrease rice cultivation, hatching of fisheries, and mangroves forest surrounding these cities. Increase in the prevailing temperature trends will lead to increasingly hotter and drier summers resulting to constraints on cotton, wheat, and rice yield in Rohri and Mohenjodaro areas due to increased crop water requirements that may be met with additional groundwater pumping; nonetheless, the depleted groundwater resources would have a direct impact on the region's economy.

Ambient air quality trends in Alberta

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2007-01-01

This document provided an overview of ambient air pollutant trends in Alberta. The report discussed the following pollutants having effect on human and environmental health: carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen sulphide (H2 S ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ), ozone (O 3 ), fine particulate matter (PM 2 .5), benzene, and benzopyrene. Each of these pollutants was described. The report provided data on annual average concentration trends and annual 99th percentile concentration as an indicator of peak concentrations. A map illustrating air quality monitoring stations in 2006 was also provided. The findings revealed that mean annual CO levels were the lowest they have been since 1990; hydrogen sulphide concentrations have fluctuated in time since 1990; most Edmonton and Calgary area stations showed significant decreasing trends in annual average NO 2 levels since 1990; and higher SO 2 concentrations have been found in the industrial areas of Alberta, such as the Redwater and Scotford oil sands locations. tabs., figs

Projection display technology and product trends

Science.gov (United States)

Kahn, Frederic J.

1999-05-01

Major technology and market trends that could generate a 20 billion dollar electronic projector market by 2010 are reviewed in the perspective of recent product introductions. A log linear analysis shows that the light outputs of benchmark transportable data video projectors have increased at a rate of almost 90 percent per year since 1993. The list prices of these same projectors have decreased at a rate of over 40 percent per year. The tradeoffs of light output vs. resolution and weight are illustrated. Recent trends in projector efficacy vs. year are discussed. Lumen output per dollar of list price is shown to be a useful market metric. Continued technical advances and innovations including higher throughput light valve technologies with integrated drivers, brighter light source, field sequential color, integrated- and micro-optical components, and aerospace materials are likely to sustain these trends. The new technologies will enable projection displays for entertainment and computer applications with unprecedented levels of performance, compactness, and cost-effectiveness.

Global Trends of Tropospheric NO2 Observed From Space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-04-01

Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) is one of the major atmospheric pollutants and is primarily emitted by industrial activity and transport. While observations of NO2 are frequently being carried out at air quality stations, such measurements are not able to provide a global perspective of spatial patterns in NO2 concentrations and their associated trends due to the stations' limited spatial representativity and an extremely sparse and often completely non-existent station coverage in developing countries. Satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 are able to overcome this issue and provide an unprecedented global view of spatial patterns in NO2 levels and due to their homogeneity are well suited for studying trends. Here we present results of a global trend analysis from nearly a decade of NO2 observations made by the SCIAMACHY (SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY) instrument onboard the Envisat satellite platform. Using only SCIAMACHY data allows for mapping global and regional trends at an unprecedented spatial resolution since no aggregation to the coarser resolution of other sensors is necessary. Monthly average tropospheric NO2 column data was acquired for the period between August 2002 and August 2011. A trend analysis was subsequently performed by fitting a statistical model including a seasonal cycle and linear trend to the time series extracted at each grid cell. The linear trend component and the trend uncertainty were then mapped spatially at both regional and global scales. The results show that spatially contiguous areas of significantly increasing NO2 levels are found primarily in Eastern China, with absolute trends of up to 4.05 (± 0.41) - 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 at the gridcell level and large areas showing rapid relative increases of 10-20 percent per year. In addition, many urban agglomerations in Asia and the Middle East similarly exhibit significantly increasing trends, with Dhaka in Bangladesh being the megacity with

Trends in Youth Crime and Well-Being since the Abolition of Corporal Punishment in Sweden.

Science.gov (United States)

Durrant, Joan E.

2000-01-01

Examines trends in the well being of Swedish youth to determine whether they show improvement or deterioration since the passage of the 1979 corporal punishment ban. Data collected from various national sources indicate that rates of involvement in crime, substance use, rape, and suicide have decreased. Trends in rates of nonsexual assaults are…

Trend and recovery of the total ozone column in South America and Antarctica

Science.gov (United States)

Toro A., Richard; Araya, Consuelo; Labra O., Felipe; Morales, Luis; Morales, Raúl G. E.; Leiva G., Manuel A.

2017-12-01

South America is one of the most vulnerable areas to stratospheric ozone depletion; consequently, an increased amount of UV radiation reaches the Earth's surface in this region. In this study, we analyzed the long-term trend in the total ozone column (TOC) over the southern part of the South American continent from 1980 to 2009. The database used was obtained by combining several satellite measurements of the TOC on a 1° (latitude) × 1.25° (longitude) grid. Analysis of the long-term trend was performed by applying the Theil-Sen estimator and the Mann-Kendall significance test to the deseasonalized time series. The long-term trend was also analyzed over several highly populated urban zones in the study area. Finally, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling was used to identify and quantify the drivers of interannual variability in the TOC over the study area with a pixel-by-pixel approach. The results showed a decrease in the TOC ranging from -0.3 to -4% dec-1 from 1980 to 2009. On a decadal timescale, there is significant variability in this trend, and a decrease of more than -10% dec-1 was found at high latitudes (1980-1989). However, the trends obtained over much of the study area were not statistically significant. Considering the period from 1980 to 1995, we found a decrease in the TOC of -2.0 ± 0.6% dec-1 at latitudes below 40° S and -6.9 ± 2.0% dec-1 at latitudes above 40° S, for a 99.9% confidence level over most of the study area. Analysis of the period from 1996 to 2009 showed a statistically significant increase of 2.3 ± 0.1% dec-1 at high latitudes (> 60° S), confirming the initial TOC recovery in the Antarctic. Despite evidence for initial recovery of the TOC in some parts of the study area between 1996 and 2009, the long-term increase from September to November is not yet statistically significant. In addition, large parts of the study area and most of the urban areas continue to show a decreasing trend in the TOC. The MLR results show that

Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States.

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Welsh, Jean A; Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-09-01

The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999-2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999-2000 and 2007-2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits.

Decreased DOC concentrations in soil water in forested areas in southern Sweden during 1987-2008.

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Löfgren, Stefan; Zetterberg, Therese

2011-04-15

During the last two decades, there is a common trend of increasing concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in streams and lakes in Europe, Canada and the US. Different processes have been proposed to explain this trend and recently a unifying hypothesis was presented, concluding that declining sulphur deposition and recovery from acidification, is the single most important factor for the long-term DOC concentration trends in surface waters. If this recovery hypothesis is correct, the soil water DOC concentrations should increase as well. However, long-term soil water data from Sweden and Norway indicate that there are either decreasing or indifferent DOC concentrations, while positive DOC trends have been found in the Czech Republic. Based on the soil water data from two Swedish integrated monitoring sites and geochemical modelling, it has been shown that depending on changes in pH, ionic strength and soil Al pools, the DOC solubility might be positive, negative or indifferent. In this study, we test the acidification recovery hypothesis on long-term soil water data (25 and 50cm soil depth) from 68 forest covered sites in southern Sweden, showing clear signs of recovery from acidification. The main aim was to identify potential drivers for the DOC solubility in soil solution by comparing trends in DOC concentrations with observed changes in pH, ionic strength and concentrations of Al(n+). As in earlier Swedish and Norwegian studies, the DOC concentrations in soil water decreased or showed no trend. The generally small increases in pH (median <0.3 pH units) during the investigation period seem to be counterbalanced by the reduced ionic strength and diminished Al concentrations, increasing the organic matter coagulation. Hence, opposite to the conclusion for surface waters, the solubility of organic matter seems to decrease in uphill soils, as a result of the acidification recovery. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal trends in physical activity: a systematic review.

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Knuth, Alan G; Hallal, Pedro C

2009-09-01

In spite of all accumulated scientific knowledge on the benefits of physical activity (PA) for health, high rates of sedentary lifestyle are still observed worldwide. The aim of this study was to systematically review articles on temporal trends of PA and fitness, with emphasis on differences between children/ adolescents and adults. An electronic search at the Medline/PubMed database was carried out using the following combination of keywords: temporal trends or trends or surveillance or monitoring and PA or exercise or physical fitness or motor activity or sedentary or fitness. By using this strategy, 23,088 manuscripts were detected. After examination, 41 articles fulfilled all inclusion criteria, and were, therefore, included. The data currently available in the literature for adults shows that leisure-time activity levels tend to be increasing over time, while occupational-related PA is decreasing over time. Youth PA seems to be decreasing over time, including a lower level of activity in physical education classes. As a consequence, fitness levels are also declining. PA surveillance must be strongly encouraged in all settings and age groups. Special attention must be paid to low and middle-income countries, where PA surveillance is virtually inexistent.

Decreases in Smoking-Related Cancer Mortality Rates Are Associated with Birth Cohort Effects in Korean Men

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Yon Ho Jee

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background: This study aimed to examine trends in smoking-related cancer mortality rates and to investigate the effect birth cohort on smoking-related cancer mortality in Korean men. Methods: The number of smoking-related cancer deaths and corresponding population numbers were obtained from Statistics Korea for the period 1984–2013. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to detect changes in trends in age-standardized mortality rates. Birth-cohort specific mortality rates were illustrated by 5 year age groups. Results: The age-standardized mortality rates for oropharyngeal decreased from 2003 to 2013 (annual percent change (APC: −3.1 (95% CI, −4.6 to −1.6 and lung cancers decreased from 2002 to 2013 (APC −2.4 (95% CI −2.7 to −2.2. The mortality rates for esophageal declined from 1994 to 2002 (APC −2.5 (95% CI −4.1 to −0.8 and from 2002 to 2013 (APC −5.2 (95% CI −5.7 to −4.7 and laryngeal cancer declined from 1995 to 2013 (average annual percent change (AAPC: −3.3 (95% CI −4.7 to −1.8. By the age group, the trends for the smoking-related cancer mortality except for oropharyngeal cancer have changed earlier to decrease in the younger age group. The birth-cohort specific mortality rates and age-period-cohort analysis consistently showed that all birth cohorts born after 1930 showed reduced mortality of smoking-related cancers. Conclusions: In Korean men, smoking-related cancer mortality rates have decreased. Our findings also indicate that current decreases in smoking-related cancer mortality rates have mainly been due to a decrease in the birth cohort effect, which suggest that decrease in smoking rates.

Multi-year levels and trends of non-methane hydrocarbon concentrations observed in ambient air in France

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Waked, Antoine; Sauvage, Stéphane; Borbon, Agnès; Gauduin, Julie; Pallares, Cyril; Vagnot, Marie-Pierre; Léonardis, Thierry; Locoge, Nadine

2016-09-01

Measurements of 31 non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) were carried out at three urban (Paris, 2003-2014, Strasbourg, 2002-2014 and Lyon, 2007-2014) sites in France over the period of a decade. A trend analysis was applied by means of the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test to annual and seasonal mean concentrations in order to point out changes in specific emission sources and to assess the impact of emission controls and reduction strategies. The trends were compared to those from three rural sites (Peyrusse-Vieille, 2002-2013, Tardière, 2003-2013 and Donon, 1997-2007). The results obtained showed a significant yearly decrease in pollutant concentrations over the study period and for the majority of species in the range of -1 to -7% in accordance with the decrease of NMHC emissions in France (-5 to -9%). Concentrations of long-lived species such as ethane and propane which are recognized as tracers of distant sources and natural gas remained constant. Compounds associated with combustion processes such as acetylene, propene, ethylene and benzene showed a significant decline in the range of -2% to -5% yr-1. These trends are consistent with those recently described at urban and background sites in the northern mid-latitudes and with emission inventories. C7-C9 aromatics such as toluene and xylenes as well as C4-C5 alkanes such as isopentane and isobutane also showed a significant decrease in the range of -3% to -7% yr-1. The decreasing trends in terms of % yr-1 observed at these French urban sites were typically higher for acetylene, ethylene and benzene than those reported for French rural sites of the national observatory of Measurement and Evaluation in Rural areas of trans-boundary Air pollution (MERA). The study also highlighted the difficult choice of a long term sampling site representative of the general trends of pollutant concentrations.

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

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Thankamani Akhil Raj, Sivan; Venkat Ratnam, Madineni; Narayana Rao, Daggumati; Venkata Krishna Murthy, Boddam

2018-01-01

We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993-2005), Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004-2015), Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002-2015) on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics)) observations covering the period 1993-2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E) and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E), covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E), for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (-1.71 ± 0.49 K decade-1) and New Delhi (-1.15 ± 0.55 K decade-1). The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998-2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (˜ 10 hPa) and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

Secular trends in child and adult sexual violence--one decreasing and the other increasing: a population survey in Ireland.

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McGee, Hannah; Garavan, Rebecca; Byrne, Joanne; O'Higgins, Madeleine; Conroy, Ronán M

2011-02-01

Sexual violence is a worldwide problem affecting children and adults. Knowledge of trends in prevalence is essential to inform the design and evaluation of preventive and intervention programmes. We aimed to assess the prevalence of lifetime sexual violence for both sexes and to document the prevalence of adult and child abuse by birth year in the general population. National cluster-randomized telephone interview study of 3120 adults in Ireland was done. Child sexual abuse involving physical contact was reported by 20% of women and 16% of men. In adulthood, figures were 20% and 10% for women and men, respectively. Prevalence of any form of sexual violence across the lifespan was 42% (women) and 38% (men). Analysis by year of birth indicated a curvilinear pattern for child sexual abuse with lower prevalence in the oldest and youngest participants. Sexual violence in young adulthood showed a linear pattern with higher prevalence in the youngest participants. The trend of lower rates of experience of child sexual abuse in younger adults in the sample is in keeping with findings from other countries. The trend of higher rates of adult sexual violence in younger adults is worrying, particularly since the same participants reported less experience of child sexual abuse than the preceding generations. There is a paucity of international data addressing the issue of cohort differences in exposure to sexual violence. Within-study analysis, and follow-up studies designed to maximize replicability, are needed to inform discussion about societal trends in different types of sexual violence.

Trends and characteristics affecting disability among older Canadians living in private households

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Samuel Vézina

2013-10-01

Full Text Available As the first of the Boomers reach age 65 in 2011, it is of great interest to identify trends in disability to better predict future needs and resources within community care. This paper uses data from four national datasets to investigate trends in disability rates and examine socio-demographic characteristics associated with disability. Results show a decrease in the overall disability prevalence rate. However, no significant trend in levels of disability was identified for the period 1994/95–2000/01 when controlling for socio-demographic variables, suggesting stability in the probability of being disabled over time.

Congruent, decreasing trends of gentoo penguins and Crozet shags ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Numbers of gentoo penguins Pygoscelis papua and Crozet shags Phalacrocorax [atriceps] melanogenis breeding annually at Marion Island, one of South Africa's Prince Edward Islands in the South-West Indian Ocean, were strongly correlated over 19 split-years from 1994/1995 to 2012/2013. Both species decreased ...

Italian cancer figures, report 2009: Cancer trend (1998-2005).

Science.gov (United States)

2009-01-01

the aim of this collaborative project of the Italian Network of Cancer Registries (Airtum; www.registri-tumori.it) was to analyse cancer incidence and mortality trends in Italy with special reference to the period 1998-2005. the study was based on the Airtum database, which collects and checks data from all the Airtum registries. The present study was based on 20 general and 2 specific populationbased cancer registries. Overall, we analysed 818,017 incident cases and 342,444 cancer deaths for the time period 1998-2005. Seventy percent of the analysed population was from the North of Italy, 17% from the Centre, and 13% from the South. A joinpoint analysis was carried out to detect the point in time where the trend changed; trends are described by means of the estimated annual percent change (APC), with appropriate 95% confidence intervals. Crude and standardized incidence and mortality rates were computed for 36 cancer sites, for both sexes, three age-classes (0-49, 50-69 and 70+ years), and three geographic areas (North, Centre, and South of Italy). Specific chapters are devoted to long-term trends (1986-2005), differences among age-groups, and international comparisons. In 1998-2005, cancer mortality for all sites showed a statistically significant decrease among men (APC - 1.7) and women (- 0.8). Mortality significantly decreased in both sexes for stomach cancer, rectum cancer, liver cancer, and Hodgkin lymphoma. Mortality also decreased among men for cancers of the upper aerodigestive tract, oesophagus, lung, prostate, urinary bladder, and leukaemia. Among women mortality decreased for cancers of the colon, bone, breast, and uterus not otherwise specified. An increase in mortality was recorded for lung cancer among women (+1.5) and melanoma among men (+2.6). Incidence for all cancers together (except non-melanoma skin cancers) increased among men (APC +0.3) and remained stable among women. Cancer sites which showed increasing incidence were thyroid and melanoma

Attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness from 1982 to 2011

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Zhu, Z.; Xu, L.; Bi, J.; Myneni, R.; Knyazikhin, Y.

2012-12-01

Time series of remotely sensed vegetation indices data provide evidence of changes in terrestrial vegetation activity over the past decades in the world. However, it is difficult to attribute cause-and-effect to vegetation trends because variations in vegetation productivity are driven by various factors. This study investigated changes in global vegetation productivity first, and then attributed the global natural vegetation with greening trend. Growing season integrated normalized difference vegetation index (GSI NDVI) derived from the new GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982-2011was analyzed. A combined time series analysis model, which was developed from simper linear trend model (SLT), autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and Vogelsang's t-PST model shows that productivity of all vegetation types except deciduous broadleaf forest predominantly showed increasing trends through the 30-year period. The evolution of changes in productivity in the last decade was also investigated. Area of greening vegetation monotonically increased through the last decade, and both the browning and no change area monotonically decreased. To attribute the predominant increase trend of productivity of global natural vegetation, trends of eight climate time series datasets (three temperature, three precipitation and two radiation datasets) were analyzed. The attribution of trends in global vegetation greenness was summarized as relaxation of climatic constraints, fertilization and other unknown reasons. Result shows that nearly all the productivity increase of global natural vegetation was driven by relaxation of climatic constraints and fertilization, which play equally important role in driving global vegetation greenness.; Area fraction and productivity change fraction of IGBP vegetation land cover classes showing statistically significant (10% level) trend in GSI NDVIt;

Incidence trends of human papillomavirus-related head and neck cancer in Taiwan, 1995-2009.

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Hwang, Tzer-Zen; Hsiao, Jenn-Ren; Tsai, Chia-Rung; Chang, Jeffrey S

2015-07-15

Recent studies suggested that human papillomavirus (HPV) is an emerging risk factor of head and neck cancer (HNC), particularly for oropharyngeal cancer. Studies from the West showed a rising trend of HPV-related HNC despite a decrease of the overall HNC incidence. In contrast, the overall HNC incidence in Taiwan has continued to rise. It is not clear whether the incidence trends of HPV-related HNC in Taiwan have a similar pattern to those from countries with an overall decreasing incidence of HNC. This study examined the incidence trends of HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNC in Taiwan using data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Our results showed that the incidence trends of HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNC in Taiwan both rose during 1995-2009. The incidence of HPV-related HNC (1.3 per 100,000 in 1995 to 3.3 in 2009, annual percentage change (APC) = 6.9, p Taiwan has continued to increase, the most rapid rise is in the HPV-related HNC. This suggests that similar to the Western world, HPV-related HNC is becoming an important public health issue in Taiwan. © 2014 UICC.

Hydro-meteorological trends in the Gidabo catchment of the Rift Valley Lakes Basin of Ethiopia

Science.gov (United States)

Belihu, Mamuye; Abate, Brook; Tekleab, Sirak; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2018-04-01

The global and regional variability and changes of climate and stream flows are likely to have significant influence on water resource availability. The magnitude and impacts of climate variability and change differs spatially and temporally. This study examines the long term hydroclimatic changes, analyses of the hydro-climate variability and detect whether there exist significant trend or not in the Gidabo catchment, rift valley lakes basin of Ethiopia. Precipitation, temperature and stream flow time series data were used in monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. The precipitation and temperature data span is between 1982 and 2014 and that of stream flow is between 1976 and 2006. To detect trends the analysis were done by using Mann Kendal (MK), Sen's graphical method and to detect change point using the Pettit test. The comparison of trend analysis between MK trend test and Sen graphical method results depict mostly similar pattern. The annual rainfall trends exhibited a significant decrease by about 12 mm per year in the upstream, which is largely driven by the significant decrease in the peak season rainfall. The Pettit test revealed that the years 1997 and 2007 were the change points. It is noted that the rise of temperature over a catchment might have decreased the availability of soil moisture which resulted in less runoff. The temperature analyses also revealed that the catchment was getting warmer; particularly in the upstream. The minimum temperature trend showed a significant increase about 0.08°c per annum. There is generally a decreasing trend in stream flow. The monthly stream flow also exhibited a decreasing trend in February, March and September. The decline in annual and seasonal rainfall and the increase in temperature lead to more evaporation and directly affecting the stream flow negatively. This trend compounded with the growth of population and increasing demand for irrigation water exacerbates the competing demand for water resources. It

Assessment of land degradation using time series trend analysis of vegetation indictors in Otindag Sandy land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, H Y; Li, Z Y; Gao, Z H; Wu, J J; Sun, B; Li, C L

2014-01-01

Land condition assessment is a basic prerequisite for finding the degradation of a territory, which might lead to desertification under climatic and human pressures. The temporal change in vegetation productivity is a key indicator of land degradation. In this paper, taking the Otindag Sandy Land as a case, the mean normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI a ), net primary production (NPP) and vegetation rain use efficiency (RUE) dynamic trends during 2001–2010 were analysed. The Mann-Kendall test and the Correlation Analysis method were used and their sensitivities to land degradation were evaluated. The results showed that the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE) showed a downward trend with the two methods in the past 10 years and the land was degraded. For the analysis of the three vegetation indicators (NDVI a , NPP and RUE), it indicated a decreasing trend in 62.57%, 74.16% and 88.56% of the study area according to the Mann-Kendall test and in 57.85%, 68.38% and 85.29% according to the correlation analysis method. However, the change trends were not significant, the significant trends at the 95% confidence level only accounted for a small proportion. Analysis of NDVI a , NPP and RUE series showed a significant decreasing trend in 9.21%, 4.81% and 6.51% with the Mann-Kendall test. The NPP change trends showed obvious positive link with the precipitation in the study area. While the effect of the inter-annual variation of the precipitation for RUE was small, the vegetation RUE can provide valuable insights into the status of land condition and had best sensitivity to land degradation

Assessment of the Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variations on the Trend of River Flows in Urmia Lake Watershed

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Ashkan Farokhnia

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Trend analysis is one of the appropriate methods to assess the hydro-climatic condition of watersheds, which is commonly used for analysis of change pattern in a single variable over time. However, in real cases, many hydrological variables such as river flow are directly affected by climate and environmental factors, which usually go unnoticed in routine analyzes. The aim of the present research is to investigate the trend of river discharge in 25 hydrometric stations in Lake Urmia river basin with and without consideration of temperature and rainfall variability. Briefly, the results showed that there is a decreasing trend in all stations, which is significant in 9 cases. Also, it has been shown that regarding to trends in precipitation and temperature, the number of stations with significant decreasing trend will reduce to 7, which shows low impact of climate factors on the reduction rate of discharge in these stations. Based on the results, it can be concluded that climate variations have direct effect in inferring significant trends in river flow, so that considering these variables in studying of river discharge can lead to different results in the detection of significant trends.

Surface wind energy trends near Taiwan in winter since 1871

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Lei Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The tropical surface wind speed in boreal winter reaches a maximum near Taiwan. This stable wind resource may be used for future clean energy development. How this surface wind energy source has changed in past 141 years is investigated using the 20th century reanalysis dataset and CMIP5 models. Our observational analysis shows that the surface wind speed experienced a weakening trend in the past 141 years (1871 - 2010. The average decreasing rate is around -1.4 m s-1 per century. The decrease is primarily attributed to the relative sea surface temperature (SST cooling in the subtropical North Pacific, which forces a large-scale low-level anti-cyclonic circulation anomaly in situ and is thus responsible for the southerly trend near Taiwan. The relative SST trend pattern is attributed mainly to the greenhouse gas effect associated with anthropogenic activities. The southerly trend near Taiwan is more pronounced in the boreal winter than in summer. Such seasonal difference is attributed to the reversed seasonal mean wind, which promotes more efficient positive feedback in the boreal winter. The CMIP5 historical run analysis reveals that climate models capture less SST warming and large-scale anti-cyclonic circulation in the subtropical North Pacific, but the simulated weakening trend of the surface wind speed near Taiwan is too small.

Ob/ob mouse livers show decreased oxidative phosphorylation efficiencies and anaerobic capacities after cold ischemia.

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Michael J J Chu

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Hepatic steatosis is a major risk factor for graft failure in liver transplantation. Hepatic steatosis shows a greater negative influence on graft function following prolonged cold ischaemia. As the impact of steatosis on hepatocyte metabolism during extended cold ischaemia is not well-described, we compared markers of metabolic capacity and mitochondrial function in steatotic and lean livers following clinically relevant durations of cold preservation. METHODS: Livers from 10-week old leptin-deficient obese (ob/ob, n = 9 and lean C57 mice (n = 9 were preserved in ice-cold University of Wisconsin solution. Liver mitochondrial function was then assessed using high resolution respirometry after 1.5, 3, 5, 8, 12, 16 and 24 hours of storage. Metabolic marker enzymes for anaerobiosis and mitochondrial mass were also measured in conjunction with non-bicarbonate tissue pH buffering capacity. RESULTS: Ob/ob and lean mice livers showed severe (>60% macrovesicular and mild (<30% microvesicular steatosis on Oil Red O staining, respectively. Ob/ob livers had lower baseline enzymatic complex I activity but similar adenosine triphosphate (ATP levels compared to lean livers. During cold storage, the respiratory control ratio and complex I-fueled phosphorylation deteriorated approximately twice as fast in ob/ob livers compared to lean livers. Ob/ob livers also demonstrated decreased ATP production capacities at all time-points analyzed compared to lean livers. Ob/ob liver baseline lactate dehydrogenase activities and intrinsic non-bicarbonate buffering capacities were depressed by 60% and 40%, respectively compared to lean livers. CONCLUSIONS: Steatotic livers have impaired baseline aerobic and anaerobic capacities compared to lean livers, and mitochondrial function indices decrease particularly from after 5 hours of cold preservation. These data provide a mechanistic basis for the clinical recommendation of shorter cold storage durations in

Observed Decrease of North American Winter Temperature Variability

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Rhines, A. N.; Tingley, M.; McKinnon, K. A.; Huybers, P. J.

2015-12-01

There is considerable interest in determining whether temperature variability has changed in recent decades. Model ensembles project that extratropical land temperature variance will detectably decrease by 2070. We use quantile regression of station observations to show that decreasing variability is already robustly detectable for North American winter during 1979--2014. Pointwise trends from GHCND stations are mapped into a continuous spatial field using thin-plate spline regression, resolving small-scales while providing uncertainties accounting for spatial covariance and varying station density. We find that variability of daily temperatures, as measured by the difference between the 95th and 5th percentiles, has decreased markedly in winter for both daily minima and maxima. Composites indicate that the reduced spread of winter temperatures primarily results from Arctic amplification decreasing the meridional temperature gradient. Greater observed warming in the 5th relative to the 95th percentile stems from asymmetric effects of advection during cold versus warm days; cold air advection is generally from northerly regions that have experienced greater warming than western or southwestern regions that are generally sourced during warm days.

Consumption of added sugars is decreasing in the United States1234

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Andrea J; Grellinger, Lisa; Vos, Miriam B

2011-01-01

Background: The consumption of added sugars (caloric sweeteners) has been linked to obesity, diabetes, and heart disease. Little is known about recent consumption trends in the United States or how intakes compare with current guidelines. Objective: We examined trends in intakes of added sugars in the United States over the past decade. Design: A cross-sectional study of US residents ≥2 y of age (n = 42,316) was conducted by using dietary data from NHANES 1999–2008 (five 2-y cycles) and data for added-sugar contents from the MyPyramid Equivalents Database. Mean intakes of added sugars (grams and percentage of total energy intake) were weighted to obtain national estimates over time across age, sex, and race-ethnic groups. Linear trends were tested by using Wald's F tests. Results: Between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the absolute intake of added sugars decreased from a mean (95% CI) of 100.1 g/d (92.8, 107.3 g/d) to 76.7 g/d (71.6, 81.9 g/d); two-thirds of this decrease, from 37.4 g/d (32.6, 42.1 g/d) to 22.8 g/d (18.4, 27.3 g/d), resulted from decreased soda consumption (P-linear trend added sugars to increase over the study period (P-linear trend = 0.003), although the peak consumption reached only 0.15 g/d (0.08, 0.22 g/d). The percentage of total energy from added sugars also decreased from 18.1% (16.9%, 19.3%) to 14.6% (13.7%, 15.5%) (P-linear trend added sugars in the United States decreased between 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, primarily because of a reduction in soda consumption, mean intakes continue to exceed recommended limits. PMID:21753067

Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT data for 2010-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Maasakkers, J. D.; Jacob, D.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Hersher, M.; Scarpelli, T.; Turner, A. J.; Sheng, J.; Bloom, A. A.; Bowman, K. W.; Parker, R.

2017-12-01

We present a global inversion of methane sources and sinks using GOSAT satellite data from 2010 up to 2015. The inversion optimizes emissions and their trends at 4° × 5° resolution as well as the interannual variability of global OH concentrations. It uses an analytical approach that quantifies the information content from the GOSAT observations and provides full error characterization. We show how the analytical approach can be applied in log-space, ensuring the positivity of the posterior. The inversion starts from state-of-science a priori emission inventories including the Gridded EPA inventory for US anthropogenic emissions, detailed oil and gas emissions for Canada and Mexico, EDGAR v4.3.2 for anthropogenic emissions in other countries, the WetCHARTs product for wetlands, and our own estimates for geological seeps. Inversion results show lower emissions over Western Europe and China than predicted by EDGAR v4.3.2 but higher emissions over Japan. In contrast to previous inversions that used incorrect patterns in a priori emissions, we find that the EPA inventory does not underestimate US anthropogenic emissions. Results for trends show increasing emissions in the tropics combined with decreasing emissions in Europe, and a decline in OH concentrations contributing to the global methane trend.

Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

Science.gov (United States)

Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,

2015-01-01

Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

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Anna M Magera

Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

The trends in total energy, macronutrients and sodium intake among Japanese: findings from the 1995-2016 National Health and Nutrition Survey.

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Saito, Aki; Imai, Shino; Htun, Nay Chi; Okada, Emiko; Yoshita, Katsushi; Yoshiike, Nobuo; Takimoto, Hidemi

2018-06-04

Monitoring nutritional status of the population is essential in the development and evaluation of national or local health policies. In this study, we aimed to demonstrate analysis on the trends in dietary intake of energy and macronutrients, as well as Na, in Japanese population using the data of series of cross-sectional national surveys - the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) and the National Health Nutrition Survey (NHNS) - during the period from 1995 to 2016. The NNS and NHNS participants aged 20-79 years were included in the analysis. Dietary intake was estimated using 1-d household-based dietary record. The trend in total energy intake, energy intake from macronutrients (fat and protein), Na intake and energy-adjusted Na intake were analysed using regression models adjusted to 2010 age distribution and anthropometry status. A total of 94 270 men and 107 890 women were included the analysis. Total energy intake showed a decreasing trend in both men and women. Similarly, energy intake from protein decreased, but energy intake (%) from fat increased in both sexes. Energy-adjusted Na intake showed a decreasing trend in both men and women. This study identified the decrease in total energy intake and energy intake from protein, whereas there were inverse trends in energy intake from fat among Japanese adults. Continued monitoring of trends in dietary intake will be needed, and there should be efforts to increase the accuracy of current survey procedures.

Trends and Consumption Structures of China’s Blue and Grey Water Footprint

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Huixiao Wang

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Water footprint has become a common method to study the water resources utilization in recent years. By using input–output analysis and dilution theory, the internal water footprint, blue water footprint and grey water footprint of China from 2002 to 2012 were estimated, and the consumption structure of water footprint and virtual water trade were analyzed. The results show: (1 From 2002 to 2012, the average annual internal water footprint was 3.83 trillion m3 in China, of which the blue water footprint was 0.25 trillion m3, and the grey water footprint was 3.58 trillion m3 (with Grade III water standard accounting; both the internal water footprint and grey water footprint experienced decreasing trends from 2002 to 2012, except for a dramatic increase in 2010; (2 Average annual virtual blue water footprint was the greatest in agriculture (39.2%, while tertiary industry (27.5% and food and tobacco processing (23.7% were the top two highest for average annual virtual grey water footprint; (3 Virtual blue water footprint in most sectors showed increasing trends due to the increase of final demand, while virtual grey water footprint in most sectors showed decreasing trends due to the decreases of total return water coefficients and conversion coefficients of virtual grey water footprint; (4 For water resources, China was self-reliant: the water used for producing the products and services to meet domestic consumption was taken domestically; meanwhile, China exported virtual water to other countries, which aggravated the water stress in China.

Suicide mortality trends in young people aged 15 to 19 years in Lithuania.

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Strukcinskiene, B; Andersson, R; Janson, S

2011-11-01

This paper considers the suicide mortality trends from 1990-2009 in young people aged 15 to 19 years in Lithuania. Suicide and injury mortality data, plus mortality data from all causes, were used to compare the trend lines. Suicide mortality rate in young people aged 15-19 years and in all population showed a rising trend from 1990, and then a decreasing trend from 2002 year. This trend was significant exclusively in boys. When comparing suicide deaths as a percentage of injury deaths and of all deaths in the age group 15-19 years, rising trends for boys were evident, whilst in girls, there was no evidence of change. In Lithuania, from early 1990s, the frequency of suicide increased amongst adults and young people aged 15-19 years. After 2002, a decrease in deaths by suicide was observed both for the whole population and for young people aged 15-19 years. The rise and fall was obvious for boys. The reasons for different trends may have been influenced by the political and socioeconomic instability in the 1990-2002 period, and the socioeconomic stability, together with active preventive measures, from 2002. Although the consumption of modern Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) increased during the same time, suicide mortality was again high during the economic crisis in 2008-2009. © 2011 The Author(s)/Acta Paediatrica © 2011 Foundation Acta Paediatrica.

Trend Change Detection in NDVI Time Series: Effects of Inter-Annual Variability and Methodology

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Forkel, Matthias; Carvalhais, Nuno; Verbesselt, Jan; Mahecha, Miguel D.; Neigh, Christopher S.R.; Reichstein, Markus

2013-01-01

Changing trends in ecosystem productivity can be quantified using satellite observations of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). However, the estimation of trends from NDVI time series differs substantially depending on analyzed satellite dataset, the corresponding spatiotemporal resolution, and the applied statistical method. Here we compare the performance of a wide range of trend estimation methods and demonstrate that performance decreases with increasing inter-annual variability in the NDVI time series. Trend slope estimates based on annual aggregated time series or based on a seasonal-trend model show better performances than methods that remove the seasonal cycle of the time series. A breakpoint detection analysis reveals that an overestimation of breakpoints in NDVI trends can result in wrong or even opposite trend estimates. Based on our results, we give practical recommendations for the application of trend methods on long-term NDVI time series. Particularly, we apply and compare different methods on NDVI time series in Alaska, where both greening and browning trends have been previously observed. Here, the multi-method uncertainty of NDVI trends is quantified through the application of the different trend estimation methods. Our results indicate that greening NDVI trends in Alaska are more spatially and temporally prevalent than browning trends. We also show that detected breakpoints in NDVI trends tend to coincide with large fires. Overall, our analyses demonstrate that seasonal trend methods need to be improved against inter-annual variability to quantify changing trends in ecosystem productivity with higher accuracy.

Trends and characteristics affecting disability among older Canadians living in private households

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Guillaume Lefrançois

2013-10-01

Full Text Available As the first of the Boomers reach age 65 in 2011, it is of great interest to identify trends in disability to better predict future needs and resources within community care. This paper uses data from four national datasets to investigate trends in disability rates and examine socio-demographic characteristics associated with disability. Results show a decrease in the overall disability prevalence rate. However, no significant trend in levels of disability was identified for the period 1994/95–2000/01 when controlling for socio-demographic variables, suggesting stability in the probability of being disabled over time.

Trends in stroke hospitalisation rates and in-hospital mortality in Aragon, 1998-2010.

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Giménez-Muñoz, A; Ara, J R; Abad Díez, J M; Campello Morer, I; Pérez Trullén, J M

2018-05-01

Despite the impact of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) on global health, its morbidity and time trends in Spain are not precisely known. The purpose of our study was to characterise the epidemiology and trends pertaining to stroke in Aragon over the period 1998-2010. We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study using the data of the Spanish health system's Minimum Data Set and included all stroke patients admitted to acute care hospitals in Aragon between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2010. We present data globally and broken down by stroke subtype, sex, and age group. The number of cases increased by 13% whereas age- and sex-adjusted hospitalisation rates showed a significant decrease for all types of stroke (mean annual decrease of 1.6%). Men and women in younger age groups showed opposite trends in hospitalisation rates for ischaemic stroke. Case fatality rate at 28 days (17.9%) was higher in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (35.8%) than in those with subarachnoid haemorrhage (26.2%) or ischaemic stroke (13%). CVD case fatality showed a mean annual decline of 2.8%, at the expense of the fatality rate of ischaemic stroke, and it was more pronounced in men than in women. Understanding stroke epidemiology and trends at the regional level will help establish an efficient monitoring system and design appropriate strategies for health planning. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Selected trends in breast cancer epidemiology in Slovakia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ondrusova, M.; Psenkova, M.; Mardiak, J.

2015-01-01

Introduction: Breast cancer is one of the most prevalent forms of malignant tumors in women and so poses a serious social and economic problem. Aims: By analysing the trends of the basic indicators of breast cancer descriptive epidemiology in Slovakia, the prospective development was predicted, providing the missing information needed to assess the impact of intervention programmes. Results: The age-standardised incidence of breast cancer in Slovakia shows a strongly rising trend by an annual percentage change value of 2.2%, whereby in respect of mortality, after a previous significant decrease in values recorded in the period 2000-2009, stabilisation is registered once again with an annual percentage change of 3.4% (without statistical significance). Conclusion: Adverse trends in the development of breast cancer mortality in Slovakia underline the importance of establishing and monitoring the efficacy of intervention steps as part of organised screening. (author)

Trends in Intense Typhoon Minimum Sea Level Pressure

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Stephen L. Durden

2012-01-01

Full Text Available A number of recent publications have examined trends in the maximum wind speed of tropical cyclones in various basins. In this communication, the author focuses on typhoons in the western North Pacific. Rather than maximum wind speed, the intensity of the storms is measured by their lifetime minimum sea level pressure (MSLP. Quantile regression is used to test for trends in storms of extreme intensity. The results indicate that there is a trend of decreasing intensity in the most intense storms as measured by MSLP over the period 1951–2010. However, when the data are broken into intervals 1951–1987 and 1987–2010, neither interval has a significant trend, but the intensity quantiles for the two periods differ. Reasons for this are discussed, including the cessation of aircraft reconnaissance in 1987. The author also finds that the average typhoon intensity is greater in El Nino years, while the intensity of the strongest typhoons shows no significant relation to El Nino Southern Oscillation.

Signal trend identification with fuzzy methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reifman, J.; Tsoukalas, L. H.; Wang, X.; Wei, T. Y. C.

1999-01-01

A fuzzy-logic-based methodology for on-line signal trend identification is introduced. Although signal trend identification is complicated by the presence of noise, fuzzy logic can help capture important features of on-line signals and classify incoming power plant signals into increasing, decreasing and steady-state trend categories. In order to verify the methodology, a code named PROTREN is developed and tested using plant data. The results indicate that the code is capable of detecting transients accurately, identifying trends reliably, and not misinterpreting a steady-state signal as a transient one

Trends in PM2.5 emissions, concentrations and apportionments in Detroit and Chicago

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Milando, Chad; Huang, Lei; Batterman, Stuart

2016-03-01

PM2.5 concentrations throughout much of the U.S. have decreased over the last 15 years, but emissions and concentration trends can vary by location and source type. Such trends should be understood to inform air quality management and policies. This work examines trends in emissions, concentrations and source apportionments in two large Midwest U.S. cities, Detroit, Michigan, and Chicago, Illinois. Annual and seasonal trends were investigated using National Emission Inventory (NEI) data for 2002 to 2011, speciated ambient PM2.5 data from 2001 to 2014, apportionments from positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor modeling, and quantile regression. Over the study period, county-wide data suggest emissions from point sources decreased (Detroit) or held constant (Chicago), while emissions from on-road mobile sources were constant (Detroit) or increased (Chicago), however changes in methodology limit the interpretation of inventory trends. Ambient concentration data also suggest source and apportionment trends, e.g., annual median concentrations of PM2.5 in the two cities declined by 3.2-3.6%/yr (faster than national trends), and sulfate concentrations (due to coal-fired facilities and other point source emissions) declined even faster; in contrast, organic and elemental carbon (tracers of gasoline and diesel vehicle exhaust) declined more slowly or held constant. The PMF models identified nine sources in Detroit and eight in Chicago, the most important being secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate and vehicle emissions. A minor crustal dust source, metals sources, and a biomass source also were present in both cities. These apportionments showed that the median relative contributions from secondary sulfate sources decreased by 4.2-5.5% per year in Detroit and Chicago, while contributions from metals sources, biomass sources, and vehicles increased from 1.3 to 9.2% per year. This first application of quantile regression to trend analyses of speciated PM2.5 data reveals

Decreasing child mortality, spatial clustering and decreasing disparity in North-Western Burkina Faso.

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Becher, Heiko; Müller, Olaf; Dambach, Peter; Gabrysch, Sabine; Niamba, Louis; Sankoh, Osman; Simboro, Seraphin; Schoeps, Anja; Stieglbauer, Gabriele; Yé, Yazoume; Sié, Ali

2016-04-01

Within relatively small areas, there exist high spatial variations of mortality between villages. In rural Burkina Faso, with data from 1993 to 1998, clusters of particularly high child mortality were identified in the population of the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), a member of the INDEPTH Network. In this paper, we report child mortality with respect to temporal trends, spatial clustering and disparity in this HDSS from 1993 to 2012. Poisson regression was used to describe village-specific child mortality rates and time trends in mortality. The spatial scan statistic was used to identify villages or village clusters with higher child mortality. Clustering of mortality in the area is still present, but not as strong as before. The disparity of child mortality between villages has decreased. The decrease occurred in the context of an overall halving of child mortality in the rural area of Nouna HDSS between 1993 and 2012. Extrapolated to the Millennium Development Goals target period 1990-2015, this yields an estimated reduction of 54%, which is not too far off the aim of a two-thirds reduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shift of subtropical transport barriers explains observed hemispheric asymmetry of decadal trends of age of air

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G. P. Stiller

2017-09-01

Full Text Available In response to global warming, the Brewer–Dobson circulation in the stratosphere is expected to accelerate and the mean transport time of air along this circulation to decrease. This would imply a negative stratospheric age of air trend, i.e. an air parcel would need less time to travel from the tropopause to any point in the stratosphere. Age of air as inferred from tracer observations, however, shows zero to positive trends in the northern mid-latitude stratosphere and zonally asymmetric patterns. Using satellite observations and model calculations we show that the observed latitudinal and vertical patterns of the decadal changes of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere during the period 2002–2012 are predominantly caused by a southward shift of the circulation pattern by about 5°. After correction for this shift, the observations reveal a hemispherically almost symmetric decrease of age of air in the lower to middle stratosphere up to 800 K of up to −0.25 years over the 2002–2012 period with strongest decrease in the northern tropics. This net change is consistent with long-term trends from model predictions.

On-line signal trend identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tambouratzis, T.; Antonopoulos-Domis, M.

2004-01-01

An artificial neural network, based on the self-organizing map, is proposed for on-line signal trend identification. Trends are categorized at each incoming signal as steady-state, increasing and decreasing, while they are further classified according to characteristics such signal shape and rate of change. Tests with model-generated signals illustrate the ability of the self-organizing map to accurately and reliably perform on-line trend identification in terms of both detection and classification. The proposed methodology has been found robust to the presence of white noise

Long-term trends in stratospheric ozone, temperature, and water vapor over the Indian region

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S. T. Akhil Raj

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We have investigated the long-term trends in and variabilities of stratospheric ozone, water vapor and temperature over the Indian monsoon region using the long-term data constructed from multi-satellite (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS MLS and HALOE, 1993–2005, Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS, 2004–2015, Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER, 2002–2015 on board TIMED (Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Energetics Dynamics observations covering the period 1993–2015. We have selected two locations, namely, Trivandrum (8.4° N, 76.9° E and New Delhi (28° N, 77° E, covering northern and southern parts of the Indian region. We also used observations from another station, Gadanki (13.5° N, 79.2° E, for comparison. A decreasing trend in ozone associated with NOx chemistry in the tropical middle stratosphere is found, and the trend turned to positive in the upper stratosphere. Temperature shows a cooling trend in the stratosphere, with a maximum around 37 km over Trivandrum (−1.71 ± 0.49 K decade−1 and New Delhi (−1.15 ± 0.55 K decade−1. The observed cooling trend in the stratosphere over Trivandrum and New Delhi is consistent with Gadanki lidar observations during 1998–2011. The water vapor shows a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere and an increasing trend in the middle and upper stratosphere. A good correlation between N2O and O3 is found in the middle stratosphere (∼ 10 hPa and poor correlation in the lower stratosphere. There is not much regional difference in the water vapor and temperature trends. However, upper stratospheric ozone trends over Trivandrum and New Delhi are different. The trend analysis carried out by varying the initial year has shown significant changes in the estimated trend.

North Atlantic cyclones; trends, impacts and links to large-scale variability

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Trigo, R. M.; Trigo, I. F.; Ramos, A. M.; Paredes, D.; Garcia-Herrera, R.; Liberato, M. L. R.; Valente, M. A.

2009-04-01

Based on the cyclone detection and tracking algorithm previously developed (Trigo, 2006) we have assessed the inter-annual variability and cyclone frequency trends between 1960 and 2000 for the Euro-Atlantic sector using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 Surface Level Pressure. Additionally, trends for the u and v wind speed components are also computed at the monthly and seasonal scales, using the same dataset. All cyclone and wind speed trend maps were computed with the corresponding statistical significance field. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind speed trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends of the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (ONDJFM), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s per year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for the JFM months are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of 50°N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5cm/year just north of Scotland). Using precipitation data from ECMWF reanalyses and a CRU high resolution dataset we show the impact of these trends in cyclone frequencies upon the corresponding precipitation trends in the influenced areas. It is also shown that these changes are partially linked to major shifts on the indices of large-scale patterns modes, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Eastern Atlantic (EA) and the Scandinavian Patterns (SCAN). Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in

Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods.

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Peters, Richard L; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Zuidema, Pieter A

2015-05-01

Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability

Measured wind speed trends on the west coast of Canada

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Tuller, Stanton E.

2004-09-01

Trends in measured wind speed are discussed for four stations on the west coast of Canada. Periods of record vary with the station. They begin in the late 1940s or the 1950s and run through to the early to mid 1990s. The most prominent feature of the time series was a decline in mean annual and winter wind speeds at Cape St James, Victoria International Airport, and Vancouver International Airport during the middle portion of the record. Declines in mean annual wind speed are matched by increases in the percentage of calms and decreases in high wind speed observations. The pressure gradient between Victoria, Vancouver and Comox, the Pacific North American index, the Pacific decadal oscillation index, and other climate elements in British Columbia and the northwestern USA show trends at roughly the same time, indicating a natural cause of the wind speed decrease. Comox Airport mean wind speeds increased, however, perhaps the result of reduced friction in the vicinity of the anemometer outweighing the decrease in the regional pressure gradient.

Characterization and management trends of negative and positive impacts of tourism in show caves

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Heros Augusto Santos Lobo

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Caves are one of the most fragile environments on Earth ’s surface, in function of physical, atmospheric and biological specificities. The natural characteristics associated with cultural aspects of local people are the reasons to tourist potential of caves. However, the tourist use of caves can generate negative impacts on the environment. This consequence happens when inappropriate procedures of planning and management of tourism are used. Negative impacts are described in this review, as also indications of management techniques to avoid, decrease or eliminate the negative consequences of tourism in caves. Positive impacts are also presented, in order to achieve a sustainable tourism in show caves. The conclusion argues that the negative impacts should not be considered as impediments to tourism in caves. It is important to know these impacts and use it as a key to get previous answers which allow to raise the sustainability of show caves.

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Requirements of Dry Season Boro Rice: Recent Trends and Future Scenarios

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Acharjee, T. K.; Ludwig, F.; Halsema, G. V.; Hellegers, P.; Supit, I.

2017-12-01

The North-West part of Bangladesh is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, because of dry season water shortage and high water demand for rice cultivation. A study was carried out to understand the impacts of recent climate change (1980-2013) and future consequences (for 2050s and 2080s) on water requirements of Boro rice. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo), potential crop water requirement (∑ETC), effective rainfall (ER), potential irrigation requirement for crop evapotranspiration (∑ETC-ER) and net irrigation requirement of Boro rice were estimated in CropWat using observed daily climate data for recent trends and statistically downscaled and bias corrected GCM outputs (five models and two RCPs) for future scenarios. ETo showed a significant decreasing recent trends due to increasing relative humidity and decreasing wind speed and sun shine hours instead of an increase in temperature. However, the strong future increase in temperature will lead to an insignificant increase in ETo. ∑ETC showed a decreasing recent trend and will further decrease in the future because of shortened duration of Boro growth stages as crop's phenological response to increased temperature. The variations in trends of ∑ETC-ER found among different districts, are mainly linked to the variations in trends of changes in effective rainfall. During last three decades, the net irrigation requirement has decreased by 11% at an average rate of -4.4 mm/year, instead of a decreasing effective rainfall, mainly because of high rate of decrease of crop evapotranspiration (-5.9 mm/year). In future, although daily water requirement will increase, the total net irrigation requirement of Boro rice will decrease by 1.6% in 2050s and 7.4% in 2080s for RCP 8.5 scenario on an average for five models and four districts compared to the base period (1980-2013). High variations in projected changes in rainfall bring high uncertainty for future water requirements estimation. Therefore, a

Extending water vapor trend observations over Boulder into the tropopause region: Trend uncertainties and resulting radiative forcing

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Kunz, A.; Müller, R.; Homonnai, V.; Jánosi, I. M.; Hurst, D.; Rap, A.; Forster, P. M.; Rohrer, F.; Spelten, N.; Riese, M.

2013-10-01

Thirty years of balloon-borne measurements over Boulder (40°N,105°W) are used to investigate the water vapor trend in the tropopause region. This analysis extends previously published trends, usually focusing on altitudes greater than 16 km, to lower altitudes. Two new concepts are applied: (1) Trends are presented in a thermal tropopause (TP) relative coordinate system from -2 km below to 10 km above the TP, and (2) sonde profiles are selected according to TP height. Tropical (TPz>14km), extratropical (TPzconcepts reduces the dynamically induced water vapor variability at the TP and principally favors refined water vapor trend studies in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Nonetheless, this study shows how uncertain trends are at altitudes -2 to +4 km around the TP. This uncertainty in turn has an influence on the uncertainty and interpretation of water vapor radiative effects at the TP, which are locally estimated for the 30 year period to be of uncertain sign. The much discussed decrease in water vapor at the beginning of 2001 is not detectable between -2 and 2 km around the TP. On lower stratospheric isentropes, the water vapor change at the beginning of 2001 is more intense for extratropical than for tropical air mass types. This suggests a possible link with changing dynamics above the jet stream such as changes in the shallow branch of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

Epidemiology and trends in non-fatal self-harm in three centres in England: 2000-2007.

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Bergen, Helen; Hawton, Keith; Waters, Keith; Cooper, Jayne; Kapur, Navneet

2010-12-01

Self-harm is a common reason for presentation to a general hospital, with a strong association with suicide. Trends in self-harm are an important indicator of community psychopathology, with resource implications for health services and relevance to suicide prevention policy. Previous reports in the UK have come largely from single centres. To investigate trends in non-fatal self-harm in six general hospitals in three centres from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England, and to relate these to trends in suicide. Data on self-harm presentations to general hospital emergency departments in Oxford (one), Manchester (three) and Derby (two) were analysed over the 8-year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2007. Rates of self-harm declined significantly over 8 years for males in three centres (Oxford: -14%; Manchester: -25%; Derby: -18%) and females in two centres (Oxford: -2% (not significant); Manchester: -13%; Derby: -17%), in keeping with national trends in suicide. A decreasing proportion and number of episodes involved self-poisoning alone, and an increasing proportion and number involved other self-injury (e.g. hanging, jumping, traffic related). Episodes involving self-cutting alone showed a slight decrease in numbers over time. Trends in alcohol use at the time of self-harm and repetition within 1 year were stable. There were decreasing rates of non-fatal self-harm over the study period that paralleled trends in suicide in England. This was reflected mainly in a decline in emergency department presentations for self-poisoning.

The Trend Odds Model for Ordinal Data‡

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Capuano, Ana W.; Dawson, Jeffrey D.

2013-01-01

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values (Peterson and Harrell, 1990). We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, where the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc Nlmixed, and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical dataset is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a Swine Influenza example where the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. PMID:23225520

The trend odds model for ordinal data.

Science.gov (United States)

Capuano, Ana W; Dawson, Jeffrey D

2013-06-15

Ordinal data appear in a wide variety of scientific fields. These data are often analyzed using ordinal logistic regression models that assume proportional odds. When this assumption is not met, it may be possible to capture the lack of proportionality using a constrained structural relationship between the odds and the cut-points of the ordinal values. We consider a trend odds version of this constrained model, wherein the odds parameter increases or decreases in a monotonic manner across the cut-points. We demonstrate algebraically and graphically how this model is related to latent logistic, normal, and exponential distributions. In particular, we find that scale changes in these potential latent distributions are consistent with the trend odds assumption, with the logistic and exponential distributions having odds that increase in a linear or nearly linear fashion. We show how to fit this model using SAS Proc NLMIXED and perform simulations under proportional odds and trend odds processes. We find that the added complexity of the trend odds model gives improved power over the proportional odds model when there are moderate to severe departures from proportionality. A hypothetical data set is used to illustrate the interpretation of the trend odds model, and we apply this model to a swine influenza example wherein the proportional odds assumption appears to be violated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Incidence Trend for Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in the North Tunisian Population, 1998-2009.

Science.gov (United States)

Benhassine, Adel; Khadhra, Hajer Ben; Khiari, Houyem; Hsairi, Mohamed; Elgaaied, Amel Benammar

2016-01-01

In 2008, non-Hodgkin lymphoma ranked tenth among other malignancies worldwide with an incidence of around 5 cases per 100,000 in both genders. The latest available rates in Tunisia are from 2006. This study aimed to provide an update about NHL incidence for 2009 and its trend between 1998 and 2009 as well as a projection until 2024, using data from the Salah Azaiz Institute hospital registry and the Noth Tunisia cancer registry. In 2009, the NHL incidence in the north of Tunisia was 4.03 cases per 100,000, 4.97 for men and 3.10 for women. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) accounted for 63.2% of all NHL subtypes. Between 1998 and 2009, the overall trend showed no significant change. When we compared the trend between two periods (1998-2005 and 2005-2009), joinpoint regression showed a significant decrease of NHL incidence in the first period with an annual percentage change (APC) of -6.7% (95% CI:[-11.2%;-2%]), then the incidence significantly increased from 2005 to 2009 with an APC of 30.5% (95% CI: [16.1%; 46.6%]. The analyses of the different subtype trends showed a significant decrease in DLBCL incidence between 1998 and 2000 (APC:-21.5; 95% CI: [-31.4%;-10.2%]) then the incidence significantly increased between 2004 and 2007 (APC: 18.5; 95% CI: [3,6%;35.5%]). Joint point analysis of the age-period-cohort model projection showed a significant increase between 2002 and 2024 with an APC of 4.5% (%95 CI: [1.5%; 7.5%]). The estimated ASR for 2024 was 4.55/100 000 (95% CI: [3.37; 6.15]). This study revealed an overall steady trend in the incidence of NHL in northern Tunisia between 1998 and 2009. Projection showed an increase in the incidence in NHL in both genders which draw the attention to the national and worldwide burden of this malignancy.

Trends in First Names Foreshadowed Hillary Clinton’s Electoral Defeat

OpenAIRE

Ghirlanda, Stefano

2017-01-01

I examine trends in the popularity of first names around the years of USA presidential elections, showing that the names 'Hillary' and 'Hilary' decreased abruptly by more than 90% in popularity following the 1992 election of Hillary Clinton's husband Bill. I show that this outcome is unique to the 1992 election, and argue that it may evidence a "dislike" for Hillary Clinton's public image among both Democratic and Republican voters, which may have eventually contributed to Hillary Clinton's l...

Trend analysis of evapotranspiration over India: Observed from long-term satellite measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Goroshi, Sheshakumar; Pradhan, Rohit; Singh, Raghavendra P.; Singh, K. K.; Parihar, Jai Singh

2017-12-01

Owing to the lack of consistent spatial time series data on actual evapotranspiration ( ET), very few studies have been conducted on the long-term trend and variability in ET at a national scale over the Indian subcontinent. The present study uses biome specific ET data derived from NOAA satellite's advanced very high resolution radiometer to investigate the trends and variability in ET over India from 1983 to 2006. Trend analysis using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test showed that the domain average ET decreased during the period at a rate of 0.22 mm year^{-1}. A strong decreasing trend (m = -1.75 mm year^{-1}, F = 17.41, P 0.01) was observed in forest regions. Seasonal analyses indicated a decreasing trend during southwest summer monsoon (m= -0.320 mm season^{-1} year^{-1}) and post-monsoon period (m= -0.188 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}). In contrast, an increasing trend was observed during northeast winter monsoon (m = 0.156 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) and pre-monsoon (m = 0.068 mm season^{-1 } year^{-1}) periods. Despite an overall net decline in the country, a considerable increase ( 4 mm year^{-1}) was observed over arid and semi-arid regions. Grid level correlation with various climatic parameters exhibited a strong positive correlation (r >0.5) of ET with soil moisture and precipitation over semi-arid and arid regions, whereas a negative correlation (r -0.5) occurred with temperature and insolation in dry regions of western India. The results of this analysis are useful for understanding regional ET dynamics and its relationship with various climatic parameters over India. Future studies on the effects of ET changes on the hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, and energy partitioning are needed to account for the feedbacks to the climate.

Dryland biological soil crust cyanobacteria show unexpected decreases in abundance under long-term elevated CO2

Science.gov (United States)

Steven, Blaire; Gallegos-Graves, La Verne; Yeager, Chris M.; Belnap, Jayne; Evans, R. David; Kuske, Cheryl R.

2012-01-01

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) cover soil surfaces in many drylands globally. The impacts of 10 years of elevated atmospheric CO2 on the cyanobacteria in biocrusts of an arid shrubland were examined at a large manipulated experiment in Nevada, USA. Cyanobacteria-specific quantitative PCR surveys of cyanobacteria small-subunit (SSU) rRNA genes suggested a reduction in biocrust cyanobacterial biomass in the elevated CO2 treatment relative to the ambient controls. Additionally, SSU rRNA gene libraries and shotgun metagenomes showed reduced representation of cyanobacteria in the total microbial community. Taxonomic composition of the cyanobacteria was similar under ambient and elevated CO2 conditions, indicating the decline was manifest across multiple cyanobacterial lineages. Recruitment of cyanobacteria sequences from replicate shotgun metagenomes to cyanobacterial genomes representing major biocrust orders also suggested decreased abundance of cyanobacteria sequences across the majority of genomes tested. Functional assignment of cyanobacteria-related shotgun metagenome sequences indicated that four subsystem categories, three related to oxidative stress, were differentially abundant in relation to the elevated CO2 treatment. Taken together, these results suggest that elevated CO2 affected a generalized decrease in cyanobacteria in the biocrusts and may have favoured cyanobacteria with altered gene inventories for coping with oxidative stress.

Geomagnetic and ionospheric data analysis over Antarctica: a contribution to the long term trends investigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Alfonsi

2008-05-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the foF2 ionosonde data acquired at mid and high latitudes reveals a general decreasing of the F2 plasma frequency over more than two solar cycles, showing steeper trends over the high latitude stations and, in particular, over Antarctica. A careful analysis of the foF2 hourly data, opportunely catalogued in different levels of magneto-ionospheric conditions, highlights the role of the geomagnetic activity in the secular change of the ionosphere and confirms the latitudinal dependence of the trends. These results suggest interesting relations with some recent findings on the rapid decrease of some important physical and statistical quantities related to the geomagnetic field over the whole globe and mainly in Antarctica. In this paper we discuss the possibility of a connection between the ionospheric trends and a possible imminent geomagnetic reversal or excursion.

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up

TEMPORAL TRENDS IN THE DETECTION RATES OF HEPATITIS B IN THE SANTA CATARINA STATE, BRAZIL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chaiana Esmeraldino Mendes Marcon

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Hepatitis B is a serious public health problem. The state of Santa Catarina presents areas of high endemicity. The aim of this study was to describe temporal trends in detection rates of hepatitis B in the period from 2002 to 2009 in Santa Catarina and in its regions. A time series study was carried out. Crude rates were calculated and standardized by age using the direct method. Annual variation percentages were estimated by Joinpoint regression. There were two distinct and significant trends in Santa Catarina. From 2002 to 2006 a significant increase of 5.9% per year was observed. From 2006, there was a significant decrease of 6.4% per year. In this same period the southern and far-western regions had significant increases of 15.9% and 4.6% and significant decreases of 7.5% and 4.8%, respectively. Greater Florianópolis and Northeast also showed significant increases until 2006, of 15.4% and 17.4%, respectively. In the following period, non-significant decreases of 5.8% and 9.8% respectively were observed. Foz do Rio Itajaí and Planalto Serrano showed non-significant increases up to half of the studied period of 21.1% and 12.0%, respectively and after, significant decreases of 21.5% and 18.0%, respectively. Vale do Itajaí showed a significant decrease of 9.7%; Planalto Norte showed a non-significant decrease of 0.6% and Midwest a non-significant increase of 2.7% per year, in the period from 2002 to 2009.

The Electrification of Energy: Long-Term Trends and Opportunities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tsao, Jeffrey Y. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Fouquet, Roger [London School of Economics and Political Science (United Kingdom); Schubert, E. Fred [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States)

2017-11-01

Here, we present and analyze three powerful long-term historical trends in energy, particularly electrical energy, as well as the opportunities and challenges associated with these trends. The first trend is from a world containing a diversity of energy currencies to one whose predominant currency is electricity, driven by electricity’s transportability, exchangeability, and steadily decreasing cost. The second trend is from electricity generated from a diversity of sources to electricity generated predominantly by free-fuel sources, driven by their steadily decreasing cost and long-term abundance. These trends necessitate a just-emerging third trend: from a grid in which electricity is transported uni-directionally, traded at near-static prices, and consumed under direct human control; to a grid in which electricity is transported bi-directionally, traded at dynamic prices, and consumed under human-tailored agential control. Early acceptance and appreciation of these trends will accelerate their remaking of humanity’s energy landscape into one in which energy is much more affordable, abundant and efficiently deployed than it is today; with major economic, geo-political, and environmental benefits to human society.

Canadian snow and sea ice: historical trends and projections

Science.gov (United States)

Mudryk, Lawrence R.; Derksen, Chris; Howell, Stephen; Laliberté, Fred; Thackeray, Chad; Sospedra-Alfonso, Reinel; Vionnet, Vincent; Kushner, Paul J.; Brown, Ross

2018-04-01

The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution (CanSISE) Network is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE Network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of Earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multi-year ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last 8 years. The multi-model consensus over the 2020-2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5-10 % per decade (or 15-30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.

Temporal trend of bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone, methylsulfonyl-DDE and -PCBs in Baltic guillemot (Uria aalge) egg 1971-2001 - A comparison to 4,4'-DDE and PCB trends

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Joerundsdottir, Hroenn; Norstroem, Karin; Olsson, Mats; Hai, P.-T.; Huehnerfuss, Heinrich; Bignert, Anders; Bergman, Ake

2006-01-01

The dynamics of organohalogen contaminants and their metabolites are best studied over time by analysis of biota at high trophic levels. In this study, time trends, 1971-2001, of bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone (BCPS) and of methylsulfonyl-substituted metabolites of PCBs and 4,4'-DDE, were investigated in eggs of guillemot (Uria aalge) hatching in the Baltic Proper. Temporal trends of PCBs, trans-nonachlor, β-HCH, 4,4'-DDT, and 4,4'-DDE were also assessed. Tris(4-chlorophenyl) methane (TCPMe), a 4,4'-DDT by-product, was detected in the eggs. The concentration of BCPS ranged between 2.6-0.76 μg/g on a lipid weight basis over the three decades and showed a significant 1.6% annual decrease. Three metabolites of PCBs, i.e. 3'-MeSO 2 -CB101, 4'-MeSO 2 -CB101 and 4-MeSO 2 -CB149, were quantified in all samples over time and showed an annual decrease of approximately 3% compared to MeSO 2 -DDE with a decrease of 8.9%. The methylsulfonyl-PCB and -DDE metabolites are eliminated more slowly than the persistent PCB congeners and 4,4'-DDE. Trans-nonachlor decreases by 16% compared to 19% and 9% for 4,4'-DDT and β-HCH, respectively. The concentration of TCPMe in guillemot decreased by 8.2% per year. A linear relationship was found between TCPMe and 4,4'-DDE concentrations which supports the theory that TCPMe has an origin as a contaminant in commercial 4,4'-DDT products. The very slow decrease in BCPS concentrations is notable and remains to be explained. BCPS is still present at rather high concentrations in the guillemot eggs. The enantiomeric fraction varied between 0.27 and 0.67 which indicates less of a specific retention of the chiral MeSO 2 -PCBs in guillemot eggs than in grey seal tissues, for example. Independent of meta- or para-substitution of the sulfone group, the most accumulative atropisomer of each of four MeSO 2 -PCB pairs has been assigned an absolute R structure. - The temporal trend of the plastic monomer bis(4-chlorophenyl) sulfone (BCPS) showed that it was

Suicide among children and adolescents in Canada: trends and sex differences, 1980-2008.

Science.gov (United States)

Skinner, Robin; McFaull, Steven

2012-06-12

Suicide is the second leading cause of death for young Canadians (10-19 years of age)--a disturbing trend that has shown little improvement in recent years. Our objective was to examine suicide trends among Canadian children and adolescents. We conducted a retrospective analysis of standardized suicide rates using Statistics Canada mortality data for the period spanning from 1980 to 2008. We analyzed the data by sex and by suicide method over time for two age groups: 10-14 year olds (children) and 15-19 year olds (adolescents). We quantified annual trends by calculating the average annual percent change (AAPC). We found an average annual decrease of 1.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] -1.5 to -0.4) in the suicide rate for children and adolescents, but stratification by age and sex showed significant variation. We saw an increase in suicide by suffocation among female children (AAPC = 8.1%, 95% CI 6.0 to 10.4) and adolescents (AAPC = 8.0%, 95% CI 6.2 to 9.8). In addition, we noted a decrease in suicides involving poisoning and firearms during the study period. Our results show that suicide rates in Canada are increasing among female children and adolescents and decreasing among male children and adolescents. Limiting access to lethal means has some potential to mitigate risk. However, suffocation, which has become the predominant method for committing suicide for these age groups, is not amenable to this type of primary prevention.

Potential evapotranspiration trend analysis for different climatic zones in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nazeer, M.

2012-01-01

Estimation of potential evapotranspiration (ETo) plays a significant role in the study of water resources management. The study was conducted to investigate the change in potential evapotranspiration value during the past three decade in three diverse climatic zones of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Three Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan (Chitral, Peshawar and D. I. Khan) were selected based on their climatic diversity. Thirty years climatic data (1981-2010) obtained from Pakistan Metrological Department, Islamabad and Agriculture Research Institute, Peshawar was used. Potential evapotranspiration was determined for three decades separately, as well as on mean monthly basis. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) technique was used for trend analysis. Results revealed highest ETo in D. I. Khan followed by Peshawar and Chitral. However, in the summer months ETo value was found highest in Chitral as compared to other selected Districts. Trend analysis results showed that decrease in ETo trend was observed in all the selected Districts with the passage of time. It can be concluded that ETo values decreased as compared to past in all the selected Districts without any discrimination of physical geography and location. (author)

Seasonal and annual precipitation time series trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

Science.gov (United States)

Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.

2014-02-01

The present study performs the spatial and temporal trend analysis of the annual and seasonal time-series of a set of uniformly distributed 249 stations precipitation data across the state of North Carolina, United States over the period of 1950-2009. The Mann-Kendall (MK) test, the Theil-Sen approach (TSA) and the Sequential Mann-Kendall (SQMK) test were applied to quantify the significance of trend, magnitude of trend, and the trend shift, respectively. Regional (mountain, piedmont and coastal) precipitation trends were also analyzed using the above-mentioned tests. Prior to the application of statistical tests, the pre-whitening technique was used to eliminate the effect of autocorrelation of precipitation data series. The application of the above-mentioned procedures has shown very notable statewide increasing trend for winter and decreasing trend for fall precipitation. Statewide mixed (increasing/decreasing) trend has been detected in annual, spring, and summer precipitation time series. Significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95%) were detected only in 8, 7, 4 and 10 nos. of stations (out of 249 stations) in winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. Magnitude of the highest increasing (decreasing) precipitation trend was found about 4 mm/season (- 4.50 mm/season) in fall (summer) season. Annual precipitation trend magnitude varied between - 5.50 mm/year and 9 mm/year. Regional trend analysis found increasing precipitation in mountain and coastal regions in general except during the winter. Piedmont region was found to have increasing trends in summer and fall, but decreasing trend in winter, spring and on an annual basis. The SQMK test on "trend shift analysis" identified a significant shift during 1960 - 70 in most parts of the state. Finally, the comparison between winter (summer) precipitations with the North Atlantic Oscillation (Southern Oscillation) indices concluded that the variability and trend of precipitation can be explained by the

Observation-based trends in ambient ozone in the Czech Republic over the past two decades

Science.gov (United States)

Hůnová, Iva; Bäumelt, Vít

2018-01-01

We present the trends in ambient ozone concentrations based on high quality data measured continuously at 26 long-term monitoring sites (9 urban, 17 rural including 10 mountain stations) in the Czech Republic in 1994-2015. We considered annual and summer medians, the 10th and 98th percentiles, maximum daily 8-h running mean concentrations and exposure index AOT40F. For all indicators taken into account except for the 10th percentile, our results showed a similar pattern with significant decreasing trends for about one half of the examined sites. We obtained similar results for all types of sites. The most pronounced decrease in O3 concentrations was recorded at mountain sites. Namely, at the Šerlich mountain site, with an overall decrease per year in annual median by 0.43 ppb, summer median by 1.17 ppb, maximal daily 8-h average by 0.45 ppb, the 10th percentile by 0.62 ppb. The peak concentrations indicated by the 98th percentile and AOT40F decreased most at urban site České Budějovice by 0.75 ppb and 0.84 ppb h per year, respectively. For sites exhibiting significant decreasing trends, an overall decrease per year in annual median was 0.22 ppb, in summer median 0.41 ppb, in the 10th percentile 0.23 ppb, in the 98th percentile 0.53 ppb, and in AOT40F 0.51 ppb h. A significant increasing trend was detected only in the 10th percentile at just three sites, with the highest increase of 0.19 ppb per year recorded at the rural site Sněžník. Moreover, a consistent decrease in limit value exceedances was detected, with by far the highest violation recorded in the meteorologically exceptional year of 2003. Out of the 26 sites under review, seven have not recorded a significant decreasing trend in O3 in any of the considered statistics. The lack of trends in O3 at these seven sites is likely associated with changing time patterns in local NO and NO2 emissions: in particular, with the increasing ratio in NO2/NOx. There is an obvious geographical pattern in recorded O3

CLIMATE CHANGE: LONG-TERM TRENDS AND SHORT-TERM OSCILLATIONS

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

GAO Xin-quan; ZHANG Xin; QIAN Wei-hong

2006-01-01

Identifying the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature reconstruction and instrumental data for the past 1000 years shows that climate change in the last millennium includes long-term trends and various oscillations. Two long-term trends and the quasi-70-year oscillation were detected in the global temperature series for the last 140 years and the NH millennium series. One important feature was emphasized that temperature decreases slowly but it increases rapidly based on the analysis of different series. Benefits can be obtained of climate change from understanding various long-term trends and oscillations. Millennial temperature proxies from the natural climate system and time series of nonlinear model system are used in understanding the natural climate change and recognizing potential benefits by using the method of wavelet transform analysis. The results from numerical modeling show that major oscillations contained in numerical solutions on the interdecadal timescale are consistent with that of natural proxies. It seems that these oscillations in the climate change are not directly linked with the solar radiation as an external forcing. This investigation may conclude that the climate variability at the interdecadal timescale strongly depends on the internal nonlinear effects in the climate system.

Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morris, Joan K.; Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth

2018-01-01

and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid...... of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random- effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003-2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects...

A global single-sensor analysis of 2002-2011 tropospheric nitrogen dioxide trends observed from space

Science.gov (United States)

Schneider, P.; van der A, R. J.

2012-08-01

A global nine-year archive of monthly tropospheric NO2 data acquired by the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CartograpHY (SCIAMACHY) instrument was analyzed with respect to trends between August 2002 and August 2011. In the past, similar studies relied on combining data from multiple sensors; however, the length of the SCIAMACHY data set now for the first time allows utilization of a consistent time series from just a single sensor for mapping NO2 trends at comparatively high horizontal resolution (0.25°). This study provides an updated analysis of global patterns in NO2 trends and finds that previously reported decreases in tropospheric NO2 over Europe and the United States as well as strong increases over China and several megacities in Asia have continued in recent years. Positive trends of up to 4.05 (±0.41) × 1015 molecules cm-2 yr-1 and up to 19.7 (±1.9) % yr-1 were found over China, with the regional mean trend being 7.3 (±3.1) % yr-1. The megacity with the most rapid relative increase was found to be Dhaka in Bangladesh. Subsequently focusing on Europe, the study further analyzes trends by country and finds significantly decreasing trends for seven countries ranging from -3.0 (±1.6) % yr-1 to -4.5 (±2.3) % yr-1. A comparison of the satellite data with station data indicates that the trends derived from both sources show substantial differences on the station scale, i.e., when comparing a station trend directly with the equivalent satellite-derived trend at the same location, but provide quite similar large-scale spatial patterns. Finally, the SCIAMACHY-derived NO2 trends are compared with equivalent trends in NO2concentration computed using the Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) model. The results show that the spatial patterns in trends computed from both data sources mostly agree in Central and Western Europe, whereas substantial differences

Recent warming trend in the coastal region of Qatar

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Way Lee; Saleem, Ayman; Sadr, Reza

2017-04-01

The objective of this study was to analyze long-term temperature-related phenomena in the eastern portion of the Middle East, focusing on the coastal region of Qatar. Extreme temperature indices were examined, which were defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, for Doha, Qatar; these indices were then compared with those from neighboring countries. The trends were calculated for a 30-year period (1983-2012), using hourly data obtained from the National Climatic Data Center. The results showed spatially consistent warming trends throughout the region. For Doha, 11 of the 12 indices studied showed significant warming trends. In particular, the warming trends were represented by an increase in the number of warm days and nights and a decrease in the number of cool nights and days. The high-temperature extremes during the night have risen at more than twice the rate of their corresponding daytime extremes. The intensity and frequency of hot days have increased, and the minimum temperature indices exhibited a higher rate of warming. The climatic changes in Doha are consistent with the region-wide heat-up in recent decades across the Middle East. However, the rapid economic expansion, increase of population since the 1990s, and urban effects in the region are thought to have intensified the rapidly warming climate pattern observed in Doha since the turn of the century.

Geomagnetic and ionospheric data analysis over Antarctica: a contribution to the long term trends investigation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Alfonsi

2008-05-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the foF2 ionosonde data acquired at mid and high latitudes reveals a general decreasing of the F2 plasma frequency over more than two solar cycles, showing steeper trends over the high latitude stations and, in particular, over Antarctica. A careful analysis of the foF2 hourly data, opportunely catalogued in different levels of magneto-ionospheric conditions, highlights the role of the geomagnetic activity in the secular change of the ionosphere and confirms the latitudinal dependence of the trends. These results suggest interesting relations with some recent findings on the rapid decrease of some important physical and statistical quantities related to the geomagnetic field over the whole globe and mainly in Antarctica. In this paper we discuss the possibility of a connection between the ionospheric trends and a possible imminent geomagnetic reversal or excursion.

Which Trend is your Friend?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Levine, Ari; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

2016-01-01

Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically, that these......Managed futures funds and commodity trading advisers (CTAs) use heuristics or statistical measures often called “filters” to trade on price trends. Two key statistical measures of trends are “time-series momentum” and “moving-average crossovers.” We show, empirically and theoretically......, that these trend indicators are closely related. In fact, they are equivalent representations in their most general forms. They also capture many other types of filters, such as the Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filter, the Kalman filter, and all other linear filters. We show how these filters can be represented through...

Decreasing Asian summer monsoon intensity after 1860 AD in the global warming epoch

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Hai [Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Xi' an, Shaanxi Province (China); Hong, Yetang; Hong, Bin [Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Guiyang (China)

2012-10-15

The trend of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) intensity and its nature during the past 100 and 200 years still remain unclear. In this study we reconstructed the ISM intensity during the past 270 years from tree ring {delta}{sup 18}O at Hongyuan, eastern edge of the Tibet Plateau. The monsoon failures inferred from {delta}{sup 18}O{sub tree} {sub ring} correlate well with those recorded in ice cores, speleothem, and historical literature sources. 22.6, 59.0, and 110.9-years frequency components in the Hongyuan {delta}{sup 18}O{sub tree} {sub ring} series, which may be the responses to solar activities, synchronize well with those recorded in other ISM indices. A notable feature of the reconstructed ISM intensity is the gradually decreasing trend from about 1860 to the present, which is inversely related to the increasing temperature trend contemporaneously. Such ''decreasing ISM intensity-increasing temperature'' tendency can also be supported by ice core records and meteorological records over a wide geographic extension. The decrease in sea surface temperature gradient between tropical and north Indian Ocean, and the decrease in land-sea thermal contrast between tropical Indian Ocean and ''Indian sub-continent-western Himalaya'' are possibly responsible for the observed decreasing ISM trend. (orig.)

Trends of the global radiation and sunshine hours in 1961-1998 and their relationships in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Rensheng; Kang Ersi; Ji Xibin; Yang Jianping; Zhang Zhihui

2006-01-01

Trends of the yearly global radiation E g , annual sunshine hours S, yearly precipitation P and yearly averaged air temperature T at 51 stations in 1961-1998 in China were detected, and the significance test method was the F-test. A total of 47 stations showed decreasing trend in the E g series of which 35 passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. At 42 stations, the trend of S was also decreasing, and 36 of them passed the F-test at the 5% significant level. The P series did not change largely in 1961-1998 and at 37 stations showed a positive trend, while the positive trend or reduced trend at 39 stations did not pass the F-test at the 25% significant level. The positive trend of the T series was shown at 49 stations, of which 29 passed the F-test at the 1% significant level. In the yearly scale, the empirical relationship between E g and S at any station was very low because the length of the E g series was too short. When using all the data at the used 51 stations together to simulate E g , the results were good. Using the longitude λ, latitude φ and altitude H, or/and P and T, of the used stations to adjust the parameters a and b of the Angstroem model, respectively, or just to adjust the parameter a, the results will be better. The parameter b of the Angstroem model was little affected by the geographical position of the used stations. At last, a simple equation is recommended to use for simulation of the yearly global radiation in China

The response of soil and stream chemistry to decreases in acid deposition in the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

McHale, Michael R; Burns, Douglas A; Siemion, Jason; Antidormi, Michael R

2017-10-01

The Catskill Mountains have been adversely impacted by decades of acid deposition, however, since the early 1990s, levels have decreased sharply as a result of decreases in emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. This study examines trends in acid deposition, stream-water chemistry, and soil chemistry in the southeastern Catskill Mountains. We measured significant reductions in acid deposition and improvement in stream-water quality in 5 streams included in this study from 1992 to 2014. The largest, most significant trends were for sulfate (SO 4 2- ) concentrations (mean trend of -2.5 μeq L -1 yr -1 ); hydrogen ion (H + ) and inorganic monomeric aluminum (Al im ) also decreased significantly (mean trends of -0.3 μeq L -1 yr -1 for H + and -0.1 μeq L -1 yr -1 for Al im for the 3 most acidic sites). Acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased by a mean of 0.65 μeq L -1 yr -1 for all 5 sites, which was 4 fold less than the decrease in SO 4 2- concentrations. These upward trends in ANC were limited by coincident decreases in base cations (-1.3 μeq L -1 yr -1 for calcium + magnesium). No significant trends were detected in stream-water nitrate (NO 3 - ) concentrations despite significant decreasing trends in NO 3 - wet deposition. We measured no recovery in soil chemistry which we attributed to an initially low soil buffering capacity that has been further depleted by decades of acid deposition. Tightly coupled decreasing trends in stream-water silicon (Si) (-0.2 μeq L -1 yr -1 ) and base cations suggest a decrease in the soil mineral weathering rate. We hypothesize that a decrease in the ionic strength of soil water and shallow groundwater may be the principal driver of this apparent decrease in the weathering rate. A decreasing weathering rate would help to explain the slow recovery of stream pH and ANC as well as that of soil base cations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

2005-2014 trends of PM10 source contributions in an industrialized area of southern Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiwei; Chen, Bing; de la Campa, Ana M Sánchez; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier; de la Rosa, Jesus D

2018-05-01

Particulate matter with a diameter of 10 μm or less (PM10) using receptor modelling was determined at an urban (La Linea, LL) and an industrial area (Puente Mayorga, PMY) in Southern Spain with samples collected during 2005-2014. The concentrations of PM10 had been decreasing at both sites in three distinctive periods: 1) the initial PM10 levels approached or exceeded the Spain and EU PM10 annual guidelines of 40 μg/m 3 during 2005-2007 at LL and 2005-2009 at PMY; 2) then PM10 dropped by 25%-∼30 μg/m 3 during 2008-2011 at LL and during 2010-2011 at PMY; 3) since 2012, the PM10 concentrations gradually decreased to major elements. These PM components generally showed a decrease trend, in accord with the trend of PM10 reduction. A PMF model identified seven sources to PM10 contributions. Secondary sulfate, soil/urban/construction dust, and secondary nitrate showed significantly decreasing trends with reduction of 40-60% comparing to the initial levels. The road traffic contribution decreased by 14% from the first to third period. However, sea salt, oil combustion, and industrial metallurgical process had relative stable contributions. These source contribution changes are reasonably governed by the PM emission abatement actions implemented during the past decade, as well as the financial crisis, that accounted for a significant decrease of PM pollution in Southern Spain. We identified that the mitigation efforts on industry, fossil fuel combustion, and urban transportation during the past decade were successful for air quality improvement in a highly industrialized area in Southern Spain. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in Medicare Reimbursement for Orthopedic Procedures: 2000 to 2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Eltorai, Adam E M; Durand, Wesley M; Haglin, Jack M; Rubin, Lee E; Weiss, Arnold-Peter C; Daniels, Alan H

2018-03-01

Understanding trends in reimbursement is critical to the financial sustainability of orthopedic practices. Little research has examined physician fee trends over time for orthopedic procedures. This study evaluated trends in Medicare reimbursements for orthopedic surgical procedures. The Medicare Physician Fee Schedule was examined for Current Procedural Terminology code values for the most common orthopedic and nonorthopedic procedures between 2000 and 2016. Prices were adjusted for inflation to 2016-dollar values. To assess mean growth rate for each procedure and subspecialty, compound annual growth rates were calculated. Year-to-year dollar amount changes were calculated for each procedure and subspecialty. Reimbursement trends for individual procedures and across subspecialties were compared. Between 2000 and 2016, annual reimbursements decreased for all orthopedic procedures examined except removal of orthopedic implant. The orthopedic procedures with the greatest mean annual decreases in reimbursement were shoulder arthroscopy/decompression, total knee replacement, and total hip replacement. The orthopedic procedures with the least annual reimbursement decreases were carpal tunnel release and repair of ankle fracture. Rate of Medicare procedure reimbursement change varied between subspecialties. Trauma had the smallest decrease in annual change compared with spine, sports, and hand. Annual reimbursement decreased at a significantly greater rate for adult reconstruction procedures than for any of the other subspecialties. These findings indicate that reimbursement for procedures has steadily decreased, with the most rapid decrease seen in adult reconstruction. [Orthopedics. 2018; 41(2):95-102.]. Copyright 2018, SLACK Incorporated.

Trends in incidence of lung cancer in Croatia from 2001 to 2013: gender and regional differences.

Science.gov (United States)

Siroglavić, Katarina Josipa; Polić Vižintin, Marina; Tripković, Ingrid; Šekerija, Mario; Kukulj, Suzana

2017-10-31

To provide an overview of the lung cancer incidence trends in the City of Zagreb (Zagreb), Split-Dalmatia County (SDC), and Croatia in the period from 2001 to 2013. Incidence data were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. For calculating incidence rates per 100 000 population, we used population estimates for the period 2001-2013 from the Croatian Bureau of Statistics. Age-standardized rates of lung cancer incidence were calculated by the direct standardization method using the European Standard Population. To describe incidence trends, we used joinpoint regression analysis. Joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant decrease in lung cancer incidence in men in all regions, with an annual percentage change (APC) of -2.2% for Croatia, 1.9% for Zagreb, and -2.0% for SDC. In women, joinpoint analysis showed a statistically significant increase in the incidence for Croatia, with APC of 1.4%, a statistically significant increase of 1.0% for Zagreb, and no significant change in trend for SDC. In both genders, joinpoint analysis showed a significant decrease in age-standardized incidence rates of lung cancer, with APC of -1.3% for Croatia, -1.1% for Zagreb, and -1.6% for SDC. There was an increase in female lung cancer incidence rate and a decrease in male lung cancer incidence rate in Croatia in 2001-20013 period, with similar patterns observed in all the investigated regions. These results highlight the importance of smoking prevention and cessation policies, especially among women and young people.

Decreasing trends in hospitalizations during anti-TNF therapy are associated with time to anti-TNF therapy: Results from two referral centres.

Science.gov (United States)

Mandel, Michael D; Balint, Anita; Golovics, Petra A; Vegh, Zsuzsanna; Mohas, Anna; Szilagyi, Blanka; Szabo, Agnes; Kurti, Zsuzsanna; Kiss, Lajos S; Lovasz, Barbara D; Gecse, Krisztina B; Farkas, Klaudia; Molnar, Tamas; Lakatos, Peter L

2014-11-01

Hospitalization is an important outcome measure and a major driver of costs in patients with inflammatory bowel disease. We analysed medical and surgical hospitalization rates and predictors of hospitalization before and during anti-TNF therapy. Data from 194 consecutive patients were analysed retrospectively (males, 45.4%, median age at diagnosis, 24.0 years, infliximab/adalimumab: 144/50) in whom anti-TNF therapy was started after January 1, 2008. Total follow-up was 1874 patient-years and 474 patient-years with anti-TNF exposure. Hospitalization rates hospitalization decreased only in Crohn's disease (odds ratio: 0.59, 95% confidence interval: 0.51-0.70, median 2-years' anti-TNF exposure) with a same trend for surgical interventions (p=0.07), but not in ulcerative colitis. Need for hospitalization decreased in Crohn's disease with early (within 3-years from diagnosis, p=0.016 by McNemar test), but not late anti-TNF exposure. At logistic regression analysis complicated disease behaviour (p=0.03), concomitant azathioprine (p=0.02) use, but not anti-TNF type, gender, perianal disease or previous surgeries were associated with the risk of hospitalization during anti-TNF therapy. Hospitalization rate decreased significantly in patients with Crohn's disease but not ulcerative colitis after the introduction of anti-TNF therapy and was associated with time to therapy. Complicated disease phenotype and concomitant azathioprine use were additional factors defining the risk of hospitalization. Copyright © 2014 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solar radiation in Germany - observed trends and an assessment of the causes. Pt. 2; Detailed trend analysis for Hamburg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grabbe, G C [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst.; Grassl, H [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorologisches Inst. Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

1994-02-01

In Part II, more detailed observations of solar radiation hourly averages of Hamburg were analysed. Global solar radiation, strongly influenced by clouds, decreased with a low significance between 1964 and 1989. The significance of the trend of increasing direct solar radiation in the same period is very weak, because the clouds play the dominant role. The diffuse solar radiation, which is a safe indicator for trends in solar irradiance, because it is relatively independent of the weather, decreased between 1964 and 1989. The reasons for this decrease are the measures to clean the air. Between 1975 and 1987 the diffuse solar radiation increased slightly. The reason for this fact is a doubling of optically active aerosol particles in the atmospheric boundary layer in this time period. (orig.)

SST and circulation trend biases cause an underestimation of European precipitation trends

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haren, van R.; Oldenborgh, van G.J.; Lenderink, G.; Collins, M.; Hazeleger, W.

2013-01-01

Clear precipitation trends have been observed in Europe over the past century. In winter, precipitation has increased in north-western Europe. In summer, there has been an increase along many coasts in the same area. Over the second half of the past century precipitation also decreased in southern

Total ozone trends over the USA during 1979-1991 from Dobson spectrophotometer observations

Science.gov (United States)

Komhyr, Walter D.; Grass, Robert D.; Koenig, Gloria L.; Quincy, Dorothy M.; Evans, Robert D.; Leonard, R. Kent

1994-01-01

Ozone trends for 1979-1991, determined from Dobson spectrophotometer observations made at eight stations in the United States, are augmented with trend data from four foreign cooperative stations operated by NOAA/CMDL. Results are based on provisional data archived routinely throughout the years at the World Ozone Data Center in Toronto, Canada, with calibration corrections applied to some of the data. Trends through 1990 exhibit values of minus 0.3 percent to minus 0.5 percent yr(exp -1) at mid-to-high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. With the addition of 1991 data, however, the trends become less negative, indicating that ozone increased in many parts of the world during 1991. Stations located within the plus or minus 20 deg N-S latitude band exhibit no ozone trends. Early 1992 data show decreased ozone values at some of the stations. At South Pole, Antarctica, October ozone values have remained low during the past 3 years.

Decadal trends in global CO emissions as seen by MOPITT

Science.gov (United States)

Yin, Y.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Broquet, G.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Pison, I.; Saunois, M.

2015-12-01

Negative trends of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations are observed in the recent decade by both surface measurements and satellite retrievals over many regions of the globe, but they are not well explained by current emission inventories. Here, we analyse the observed CO concentration decline with an atmospheric inversion that simultaneously optimizes the two main CO sources (surface emissions and atmospheric hydrocarbon oxidations) and the main CO sink (atmospheric hydroxyl radical OH oxidation). Satellite CO column retrievals from Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), version 6, and surface observations of methane and methyl chloroform mole fractions are assimilated jointly for the period covering 2002-2011. Compared to the model simulation prescribed with prior emission inventories, trends in the optimized CO concentrations show better agreement with that of independent surface in situ measurements. At the global scale, the atmospheric inversion primarily interprets the CO concentration decline as a decrease in the CO emissions (-2.3 % yr-1), more than twice the negative trend estimated by the prior emission inventories (-1.0 % yr-1). The spatial distribution of the inferred decrease in CO emissions indicates contributions from western Europe (-4.0 % yr-1), the United States (-4.6 % yr-1) and East Asia (-1.2 % yr-1), where anthropogenic fuel combustion generally dominates the overall CO emissions, and also from Australia (-5.3 % yr-1), the Indo-China Peninsula (-5.6 % yr-1), Indonesia (-6.7 % y-1), and South America (-3 % yr-1), where CO emissions are mostly due to biomass burning. In contradiction with the bottom-up inventories that report an increase of 2 % yr-1 over China during the study period, a significant emission decrease of 1.1 % yr-1 is inferred by the inversion. A large decrease in CO emission factors due to technology improvements would outweigh the increase in carbon fuel combustions and may explain this decrease. Independent

Trends of abortion complications in a transition of abortion law revisions in Ethiopia.

Science.gov (United States)

Gebrehiwot, Yirgu; Liabsuetrakul, Tippawan

2009-03-01

Evidence from developed countries has shown that abortion-related mortality and morbidity has decreased with the liberalization of the abortion law. This study aimed to assess the trend of hospital-based abortion complications during the transition of legalization in Ethiopia in May 2005. Medical records of women with abortion complications from 2003 to 2007 were reviewed (n = 773). Abortion and its complications with regard to legalization were described by rates and ratios, and predictors of fatal outcomes were analyzed by logistic regression. The overall and abortion-related maternal mortality ratios (AMMRs) showed a non-statistically significant downward trend over the 5-year period. However, the case fatality rate of abortion increased from 1.1% in 2003 to 3.6% in 2007. Late gestational age, history of interference and presenting after new abortion legislation passed have been found to be significant predictors of mortality. Decreased trends of abortion ratio and the AMMR were identified, but the severity of abortion complications and the case fatality rate increased during the transition of legal revision.

Water-quality characteristics and trends for selected sites at and near the Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho, 1949-2009

Science.gov (United States)

Bartholomay, Roy C.; Davis, Linda C.; Fisher, Jason C.; Tucker, Betty J.; Raben, Flint A.

2012-01-01

the Naval Reactors Facility may be influenced by wastewater disposal at the facility or by anthropogenic influence from the Little Lost River basin. Groundwater samples from three wells downgradient of the Power Burst Facility area show increasing trends for chloride, nitrate, sodium, and sulfate concentrations. The increases could be caused by wastewater disposal in the Power Burst Facility area. Some groundwater samples in the southwestern part of the INL and southwest of the INL show concentration trends for chloride and sodium that may be influenced by wastewater disposal. Some of the groundwater samples have decreasing trends that could be attributed to the decreasing concentrations in the wastewater from the late 1970s to 2009. The young fraction of groundwater in many of the wells is more than 20 years old, so samples collected in the early 1990s are more representative of groundwater discharged in the 1960s and 1970s, when concentrations in wastewater were much higher. Groundwater sampled in 2009 would be representative of the lower concentrations of chloride and sodium in wastewater discharged in the late 1980s. Analyses of trends for sodium in several groundwater samples from the central and southern part of the eastern Snake River aquifer show increasing trends. In most cases, however, the sodium concentrations are less than background concentrations measured in the aquifer. Many of the wells are open to larger mixed sections of the aquifer, and the increasing trends may indicate that the long history of wastewater disposal in the central part of the INL is increasing sodium concentrations in the groundwater.

Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jing; Huang, Qiang; Chang, Jianxia; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Shengzhi; Shi, Xiaoyu

2015-05-01

The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. The relationship between runoff and precipitation in the Wei River Basin has been changed due to the changing climate and increasingly intensified human activities. In this paper, we determine abrupt changes in hydro-climatic variables and identify the main driving factors for the changes in the Wei River Basin. The nature of the changes is analysed based on data collected at twenty-one weather stations and five hydrological stations in the period of 1960-2010. The sequential Mann-Kendall test analysis is used to capture temporal trends and abrupt changes in the five sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin. A non-parametric trend test at the basin scale for annual data shows a decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff over the past fifty-one years. The temperature exhibits an increase trend in the entire period. The potential evaporation was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith equation, presenting an increasing trend of evaporation since 1990. The stations with a significant decreasing trend in annual runoff mainly are located in the west of the Wei River primarily interfered by human activities. Regression analysis indicates that human activity was possibly the main cause of the decline of runoff after 1970. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Ni, J, E-mail: nan.lu@utoledo.ed, E-mail: burkhard.wilske@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jni@ibcas.ac.c, E-mail: ranjeet.john@utoledo.ed, E-mail: jiquan.chen@utoledo.ed [Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, Telegrafenberg A43, D-14473 Potsdam (Germany)

2009-10-15

This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

Climate change in Inner Mongolia from 1955 to 2005-trends at regional, biome and local scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lu, N; Wilske, B; John, R; Chen, J; Ni, J

2009-01-01

This study investigated the climate change in Inner Mongolia based on 51 meteorological stations from 1955 to 2005. The climate data was analyzed at the regional, biome (i.e. forest, grassland and desert) and station scales, with the biome scale as our primary focus. The climate records showed trends of warmer and drier conditions in the region. The annual daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature increased whereas the diurnal temperature range (DTR) decreased. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not significant. However, the vapor pressure deficit (VPD) increased significantly. On the decadal scale, the warming and drying trends were more significant in the last 30 years than the preceding 20 years. The climate change varied among biomes, with more pronounced changes in the grassland and the desert biomes than in the forest biome. DTR and VPD showed the clearest inter-biome gradient from the lowest rate of change in the forest biome to the highest rate of change in the desert biome. The rates of change also showed large variations among the individual stations. Our findings correspond with the IPCC predictions that the future climate will vary significantly by location and through time, suggesting that adaptation strategies also need to be spatially viable.

Black Carbon and Sulfate Aerosols in the Arctic: Long-term Trends, Radiative Impacts, and Source Attributions

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Zhang, R.; Yang, Y.; Smith, S.; Rasch, P. J.

2017-12-01

The Arctic has warmed dramatically in recent decades. As one of the important short-lived climate forcers, aerosols affect the Arctic radiative budget directly by interfering radiation and indirectly by modifying clouds. Light-absorbing particles (e.g., black carbon) in snow/ice can reduce the surface albedo. The direct radiative impact of aerosols on the Arctic climate can be either warming or cooling, depending on their composition and location, which can further alter the poleward heat transport. Anthropogenic emissions, especially, BC and SO2, have changed drastically in low/mid-latitude source regions in the past few decades. Arctic surface observations at some locations show that BC and sulfate aerosols had a decreasing trend in the recent decades. In order to understand the impact of long-term emission changes on aerosols and their radiative effects, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) equipped with an explicit BC and sulfur source-tagging technique to quantify the source-receptor relationships and decadal trends of Arctic sulfate and BC and to identify variations in their atmospheric transport pathways from lower latitudes. The simulation was conducted for 36 years (1979-2014) with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations. To minimize potential biases in modeled large-scale circulations, wind fields in the simulation are nudged toward an atmospheric reanalysis dataset, while atmospheric constituents including water vapor, clouds, and aerosols are allowed to evolve according to the model physics. Both anthropogenic and open fire emissions came from the newly released CMIP6 datasets, which show strong regional trends in BC and SO2 emissions during the simulation time period. Results show that emissions from East Asia and South Asia together have the largest contributions to Arctic sulfate and BC concentrations in the upper troposphere, which have an increasing trend. The strong decrease in emissions from Europe, Russia and

National Time Trends in Bullying among Adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1994 to 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarková, Mária; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Kalman, Michal

2017-07-01

Bullying in school is a public health concern which continues to be a serious threat to physical and emotional health of children and adolescents. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in bullying behaviour among school-aged children in the Czech Republic. Data were obtained from cross-sectional self-report surveys in the years 1994-2014 as a part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (HBSC) from a representative sample of 11-, 13-, and 15-year olds. The highest proportion of children who bullied others (20-47%) occurred during the years 1994 and 1998. The logistic regression models showed significant decreasing trends in bullying others and also in being bullied, regardless of age and gender. The decreasing trend in bullying may be the consequence of a preventive policy in the Czech Republic, but also a change in the understanding of the concept of bullying in society. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

[Variation trends of natural vegetation net primary productivity in China under climate change scenario].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Dong-sheng; Wu, Shao-hong; Yin, Yun-he

2011-04-01

Based on the widely used Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) for climate change study, and according to the features of natural environment in China, the operation mechanism of the model was adjusted, and the parameters were modified. With the modified LPJ model and taking 1961-1990 as baseline period, the responses of natural vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) in China to climate change in 1991-2080 were simulated under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B2 scenario. In 1961-1990, the total NPP of natural vegetation in China was about 3.06 Pg C a(-1); in 1961-2080, the total NPP showed a fluctuant decreasing trend, with an accelerated decreasing rate. Under the condition of slight precipitation change, the increase of mean air temperature would have definite adverse impact on the NPP. Spatially, the NPP decreased from southeast coast to northwest inland, and this pattern would have less variation under climate change. In eastern China with higher NPP, especially in Northeast China, east of North China, and Loess Plateau, the NPP would mainly have a decreasing trend; while in western China with lower NPP, especially in the Tibetan Plateau and Tarim Basin, the NPP would be increased. With the intensive climate change, such a variation trend of NPP would be more obvious.

Incidence and mortality trends of gastric and colorectal cancers in Croatia, 1988-2008

Science.gov (United States)

Kirac, Iva; Šekerija, Mario; Šimunović, Iva; Zgaga, Lina; Vrdoljak, Danko Velimir; Kovačević, Dujo; Kuliš, Tomislav; Znaor, Ariana

2012-01-01

Aim To estimate the incidence and mortality trends of gastric and colorectal cancers in Croatia between 1988 and 2008. Methods Incidence data for the period 1988-2008 were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. The number of deaths from gastric and colorectal cancers was obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe changes in trends by sex. Results Gastric cancer incidence rates declined steadily during the study period, with estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of -3.2% for men and -2.8% for women. Mortality rates in men decreased, with EAPC of -5.0% from 1988-1995 and -2.5% from 1995-2008. Mortality rates in women decreased, with EAPC of -3.2% throughout the study period. For colorectal cancer in men, joinpoint analysis revealed increasing trends of both incidence (EAPC 2.9%) and mortality (EAPC 2.1%).In women, the increase in incidence was not significant, but mortality in the last 15 years showed a significant increase of 1.1%. Conclusion The incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer in Croatia are similar to other European countries, while the still increasing colorectal cancer mortality calls for more efficient prevention and treatment. PMID:22522990

Trends in gender differences in accidents mortality: Relationships to changing gender roles and other societal trends

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Inga Earle

2005-11-01

Full Text Available This study tests five hypotheses concerning trends in gender differences in accidents mortality and accident-related behavior, using data for the US, UK, France, Italy, and Japan, 1950-98. As predicted by the Convergence Hypothesis, gender differences have decreased for amount of driving, motor vehicle accidents mortality, and occupational accidents mortality. However, for many types of accidents mortality, gender differences were stable or increased; these trends often resulted from the differential impact on male and female mortality of general societal trends such as increased illicit drug use or improved health care. Similarly, trends in gender differences in accident-related behavior have shown substantial variation and appear to have been influenced by multiple factors, including gender differences in rates of adoption of different types of innovations.

Long-term trends of foE and geomagnetic activity variations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Mikhailov

2003-03-01

Full Text Available A relationship between foE trends and geomagnetic activity long-term variations has been revealed for the first time. By analogy with earlier obtained results on the foF2 trends it is possible to speak about the geomagnetic control of the foE long-term trends as well. Periods of increasing geomagnetic activity correspond to negative foE trends, while these trends are positive for the decreasing phase of geomagnetic activity. This "natural" relationship breaks down around 1970 (on some stations later when pronounced positive foE trends have appeared on most of the stations considered. The dependence of foE trends on geomagnetic activity can be related with nitric oxide variations at the E-layer heights. The positive foE trends that appeared after the "break down" effect may also be explained by the [NO] decrease which is not related to geomagnetic activity variations. But negative trends or irregular foE variations on some stations for the same time period require some different mechanism. Chemical pollution of the lower thermosphere due to the anthropogenic activity may be responsible for such abnormal foE behavior after the end of the 1960s.Key words. Ionosphere (ionosphere-atmosphere interactions; ionospheric disturbances

Trends of Climate Change in Saudi Arabia: Implications on Water Resources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qassem Y. Tarawneh

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is an important factor for sustainable water resource management in the arid and semi-arid countries. In this study, future trends of temperature and rainfall were assessed for several regions in Saudi Arabia. The linear and Mann–Kendall analyses showed an increase of temperature in all regions and decrease of rainfall in many regions. Following trend analysis, the outputs of the NCAR Community Climate System Model were obtained for three emission scenarios (high: representative concentration pathways RCP8.5; high medium: RCP6; and low: RCP2.6 for the assessment periods of 2025–2044, 2045–2064 and 2065–2084 respectively, and compared with the average values from the reference period (1986–2005. In all emission scenarios, temperature showed an increase from 1986 to 2005 in all regions. For RCP8.5, increase of temperature are in the ranges of 0.8–1.6 °C, 0.9–2.7 °C and 0.7–4.1 °C during 2025–2044, 2045–2064 and 2065–2084 respectively. However, rainfall showed variable patterns with respect to emission scenarios and assessment periods. In most regions, the RCP6 showed decrease in rainfall from the reference period while the RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 showed variable patterns. The increase of temperature and variable pattern of rainfall may increase uncertainty in developing sustainable water resource management strategies.

Trends in Surface-Water Quality at Selected Ambient-Monitoring Network Stations in Kentucky, 1979-2004

Science.gov (United States)

Crain, Angela S.; Martin, Gary R.

2009-01-01

stations. Flow-adjustment procedures were used with these techniques at all stations to remove the effects of streamflow on water-quality variability. Flow adjustments were used for all constituents, except temperature. A decreasing trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent; whereas, an increasing trend indicates an increase in concentration and potential degradation in water quality. Trend results varied statewide by station and by physical property and water-quality constituent. The results for all stations and all physical properties and water-quality constituents examined had at least one statistically significant (p-value <0.05) increasing or decreasing trend during the specified period of record. Water temperature and concentrations of dissolved oxygen had no significant decreasing trends at any station. Water temperature had one significant increasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. Specific conductance and concentrations of hardness had one significant decreasing trend at the South Fork Cumberland River near Blue Heron station. pH also had a significant decreasing trend at the Mud River near Gus station. Concentrations of total suspended solids had 1 increasing trend at the Kentucky River at High Bridge station and 10 decreasing trends with 5 of those stations located in the Cumberland River Basin. Major ions analyzed for trends included chloride and sulfate. Concentrations of chloride at the 37 stations had increasing trends at 15 stations, decreasing trends at 3 stations, and no significant trend in concentration over time at 19 stations. Most of the increasing trends in concentrations of chloride are located in the northern part of Kentucky, possibly indicating an increase in the use of road salts for road deicing and (or) the result of resource extraction (oil, gas, and coal). Increasing trends of sulfate concentrations were detected at seven stations, all located in the Appalachian

Hydrologic Response to Climate Change: Missing Precipitation Data Matters for Computed Timing Trends

Science.gov (United States)

Daniels, B.

2016-12-01

This work demonstrates the derivation of climate timing statistics and applying them to determine resulting hydroclimate impacts. Long-term daily precipitation observations from 50 California stations were used to compute climate trends of precipitation event Intensity, event Duration and Pause between events. Each precipitation event trend was then applied as input to a PRMS hydrology model which showed hydrology changes to recharge, baseflow, streamflow, etc. An important concern was precipitation uncertainty induced by missing observation values and causing errors in quantification of precipitation trends. Many standard statistical techniques such as ARIMA and simple endogenous or even exogenous imputation were applied but failed to help resolve these uncertainties. What helped resolve these uncertainties was use of multiple imputation techniques. This involved fitting of Weibull probability distributions to multiple imputed values for the three precipitation trends.Permutation resampling techniques using Monte Carlo processing were then applied to the multiple imputation values to derive significance p-values for each trend. Significance at the 95% level for Intensity was found for 11 of the 50 stations, Duration from 16 of the 50, and Pause from 19, of which 12 were 99% significant. The significance weighted trends for California are Intensity -4.61% per decade, Duration +3.49% per decade, and Pause +3.58% per decade. Two California basins with PRMS hydrologic models were studied: Feather River in the northern Sierra Nevada mountains and the central coast Soquel-Aptos. Each local trend was changed without changing the other trends or the total precipitation. Feather River Basin's critical supply to Lake Oroville and the State Water Project benefited from a total streamflow increase of 1.5%. The Soquel-Aptos Basin water supply was impacted by a total groundwater recharge decrease of -7.5% and streamflow decrease of -3.2%.

[Comparison of application of Cochran-Armitage trend test and linear regression analysis for rate trend analysis in epidemiology study].

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Wang, D Z; Wang, C; Shen, C F; Zhang, Y; Zhang, H; Song, G D; Xue, X D; Xu, Z L; Zhang, S; Jiang, G H

2017-05-10

We described the time trend of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from 1999 to 2013 in Tianjin incidence rate with Cochran-Armitage trend (CAT) test and linear regression analysis, and the results were compared. Based on actual population, CAT test had much stronger statistical power than linear regression analysis for both overall incidence trend and age specific incidence trend (Cochran-Armitage trend P valuelinear regression P value). The statistical power of CAT test decreased, while the result of linear regression analysis remained the same when population size was reduced by 100 times and AMI incidence rate remained unchanged. The two statistical methods have their advantages and disadvantages. It is necessary to choose statistical method according the fitting degree of data, or comprehensively analyze the results of two methods.

Director Remuneration Pay: Trends During and After the Financial Crisis of 2007 to 2009

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Syaiful Baharee Jaafar

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to examine the trends of director remuneration in Malaysia’s publicly listed companies. The proxies for executive pay are based on cash remuneration consisting of fees, salary, bonuses, and benefits to kin. Based on the data collected from 486 publicly listed companies in Bursa Malaysia from 2007 to 2009, we empirically tested findings that the trends for remuneration increased during and after the financial crisis. The study also reveals that the structure of remuneration, such as salary and bonuses for executives, showed an increasing trend during and after the financial crisis; however, it shows that the trend of director remuneration in family firms after the financial crisis was decreasing. Further analysis indicates that family members were willing to accept lower fees, bonuses, and benefits to kin in order to maintain cash flow. Our study suggests that no expropriation existed in family firms during and after the financial crisis. However, executives in non-family firms are less interested in accepting lower remuneration as part of a contract.

Trends of VOC exposures among a nationally representative sample: Analysis of the NHANES 1988 through 2004 data sets

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Su, Feng-Chiao; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart

2011-09-01

Exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are ubiquitous due to emissions from personal, commercial and industrial products, but quantitative and representative information regarding long term exposure trends is lacking. This study characterizes trends from 1988 to 2004 for the 15 VOCs measured in blood in five cohorts of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a large and representative sample of U.S. adults. Trends were evaluated at various percentiles using linear quantile regression (QR) models, which were adjusted for solvent-related occupations and cotinine levels. Most VOCs showed decreasing trends at all quantiles, e.g., median exposures declined by 2.5 (m,p-xylene) to 6.4 (tetrachloroethene) percent per year over the 15 year period. Trends varied by VOC and quantile, and were grouped into three patterns: similar decreases at all quantiles (including benzene, toluene); most rapid decreases at upper quantiles (ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chloroform, tetrachloroethene); and fastest declines at central quantiles (1,4-dichlorobenzene). These patterns reflect changes in exposure sources, e.g., upper-percentile exposures may result mostly from occupational exposure, while lower percentile exposures arise from general environmental sources. Both VOC emissions aggregated at the national level and VOC concentrations measured in ambient air also have declined substantially over the study period and are supportive of the exposure trends, although the NHANES data suggest the importance of indoor sources and personal activities on VOC exposures. While piecewise QR models suggest that exposures of several VOCs decreased little or any during the 1990's, followed by more rapid decreases from 1999 to 2004, questions are raised concerning the reliability of VOC data in several of the NHANES cohorts and its applicability as an exposure indicator, as demonstrated by the modest correlation between VOC levels in blood and personal air

The response of soil and stream chemistry to decreases in acid deposition in the Catskill Mountains, New York, USA

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McHale, Michael; Burns, Douglas A.; Siemion, Jason; Antidormi, Michael

2017-01-01

The Catskill Mountains have been adversely impacted by decades of acid deposition, however, since the early 1990s, levels have decreased sharply as a result of decreases in emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. This study examines trends in acid deposition, stream-water chemistry, and soil chemistry in the southeastern Catskill Mountains. We measured significant reductions in acid deposition and improvement in stream-water quality in 5 streams included in this study from 1992 to 2014. The largest, most significant trends were for sulfate (SO42−) concentrations (mean trend of −2.5 μeq L−1 yr−1); hydrogen ion (H+) and inorganic monomeric aluminum (Alim) also decreased significantly (mean trends of −0.3 μeq L−1 yr−1 for H+ and −0.1 μeq L−1 yr−1 for Alim for the 3 most acidic sites). Acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) increased by a mean of 0.65 μeq L−1 yr−1 for all 5 sites, which was 4 fold less than the decrease in SO42−concentrations. These upward trends in ANC were limited by coincident decreases in base cations (−1.3 μeq L−1 yr−1 for calcium + magnesium). No significant trends were detected in stream-water nitrate (NO3−) concentrations despite significant decreasing trends in NO3− wet deposition. We measured no recovery in soil chemistry which we attributed to an initially low soil buffering capacity that has been further depleted by decades of acid deposition. Tightly coupled decreasing trends in stream-water silicon (Si) (−0.2 μeq L−1 yr−1) and base cations suggest a decrease in the soil mineral weathering rate. We hypothesize that a decrease in the ionic strength of soil water and shallow groundwater may be the principal driver of this apparent decrease in the weathering rate. A decreasing weathering rate would help to explain the slow recovery of stream pH and ANC as well as that of soil base cations.

Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

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W. R. Ismail

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

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Ismail, W. R.; Hashim, M.

2015-03-01

The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

Latitudinal and interhemispheric variation of stratospheric effects on mesospheric ice layer trends

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Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2011-02-01

Latitudinal and interhemispheric differences of model results on trends in mesospheric ice layers and background conditions are analyzed. The model nudges to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data below ˜45 km. Greenhouse gas concentrations in the mesosphere are kept constant. Temperature trends in the mesosphere mainly come from shrinking of the stratosphere and from dynamical effects. Water vapor increases at noctilucent cloud (NLC) heights and decreases above due to increased freeze drying caused by temperature trends. There is no tendency for ice clouds in the Northern Hemisphere for extending farther southward with time. Trends of NLC albedo are similar to satellite measurements, but only if a time period longer than observations is considered. Ice cloud trends get smaller if albedo thresholds relevant to satellite instruments are applied, in particular at high polar latitudes. This implies that weak and moderate NLC is favored when background conditions improve for NLC formation, whereas strong NLC benefits less. Trends of ice cloud parameters are generally smaller in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) compared to the Northern Hemisphere (NH), consistent with observations. Trends in background conditions have counteracting effects on NLC: temperature trends would suggest stronger ice increase in the SH, and water vapor trends would suggest a weaker increase. Larger trends in NLC brightness or occurrence rates are not necessarily associated with larger (more negative) temperature trends. They can also be caused by larger trends of water vapor caused by larger freeze drying, which in turn can be caused by generally lower temperatures and/or more background water. Trends of NLC brightness and occurrence rates decrease with decreasing latitude in both hemispheres. The latitudinal variation of these trends is primarily determined by induced water vapor trends. Trends in NLC altitudes are generally small. Stratospheric temperature trends vary

Vegetation greenness trend (2000 to 2009) and the climate controls in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

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Zhang, Li; Guo, Huadong; Ji, Lei; Lei, Liping; Wang, Cuizhen; Yan, Dongmei; Li, Bin; Li, Jing

2013-01-01

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau has been experiencing a distinct warming trend, and climate warming has a direct and quick impact on the alpine grassland ecosystem. We detected the greenness trend of the grasslands in the plateau using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer data from 2000 to 2009. Weather station data were used to explore the climatic drivers for vegetation greenness variations. The results demonstrated that the region-wide averaged normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) increased at a rate of 0.036  yr−1. Approximately 20% of the vegetation areas, which were primarily located in the northeastern plateau, exhibited significant NDVI increase trend (p-value plateau. A strong positive relationship between NDVI and precipitation, especially in the northeastern plateau, suggested that precipitation was a favorable factor for the grassland NDVI. Negative correlations between NDVI and temperature, especially in the southern plateau, indicated that higher temperature adversely affected the grassland growth. Although a warming climate was expected to be beneficial to the vegetation growth in cold regions, the grasslands in the central and southwestern plateau showed a decrease in trends influenced by increased temperature coupled with decreased precipitation.

Bridging Glaciological and Hydrological Trends in the Pamir Mountains, Central Asia

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Malte Knoche

2017-06-01

Full Text Available With respect to meteorological changes and glacier evolution, the southern Pamir Mountains are a transition zone between the Pamirs, Hindu Kush and Karakoram, which are water towers of Central Asia. In this study, we compare runoff and climate trends in multiple time periods with glacial changes reported in the literature. Recent glacier evolution in the Southern Pamirs and its contribution to river runoff are studied in detail. Uncertainties of estimating glacier retreat contribution to runoff are addressed. Runoff trends in the Pamir-Hindu Kush-Karakoram region appear to be a strong proxy for glacier evolution because they exhibit the same spatial pattern as glacial change. There is an anomaly in the North-West Pamirs and Northern Karakoram, showing decreasing runoff trends. In the opposite way, there is a glacier and hydrological change experienced in the Southern Pamirs and Hindu Kush. The prevailing hypothesis for the Karakoram Anomaly, decreasing summer temperatures along with increasing precipitation rates, seems to be valid for the North-Western Pamirs, as well. In the Southern Pamirs, temperature trends have been rising since 1950. Here, the unique water cycle of exclusively winter precipitation does not protect glaciers from accelerated retreat. Snow cover is preset to melt within the seasonal water cycle, due to much lower precipitation amounts falling on glaciers. Therefore, a probable increase in westerly precipitation in both regions causes glacier mass gain in the Northern Pamirs and rising river flows in the Southern Pamirs.

Evidence for acid-precipitation-induced trends in stream chemistry at hydrologic bench-mark stations

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Smith, Richard A.; Alexander, Richard B.

1983-01-01

Ten- to 15-year water-quality records from a network of headwater sampling stations show small declines in stream sulfate concentrations at stations in the northeastern quarter of the Nation and small increases in sulfate at most southeastern and western sites. The regional pattern of stream sulfate trends is similar to that reported for trends in S02 emissions to the atmosphere during the same period. Trends in the ratio of alkalinity to total major cation concentrations at the stations follow an inverse pattern of small increases in the Northeast and small, but widespread decreases elsewhere. The undeveloped nature of the sampled basins and the magnitude and direction of observed changes in relation to SO2 emissions support the hypothesis that the observed patterns in water quality trends reflect regional changes in the rates of acid deposition.

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

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Suhaila, Jamaludin; Yusop, Zulkifli

2017-06-01

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann-Kendall (SQ-MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ-MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2-5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kierkegaard, A.; Bignert, A.; Sellstroem, U.; Olsson, M.; Asplund, L.; Jansson, B.; Wit, C.A. de

2004-01-01

Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s (Σ5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location. - PBDEs and MeO-BDEs show different temporal trends in pike from a Swedish lake suggesting different sources

Observation of enhanced zero-degree binary encounter electron production with decreasing charge-state q in 30 MeV Oq+ + O2 collisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zouros, T.J.M.; Wong, K.L.; Hidmi, H.I.

1993-01-01

We have measured binary encounter electron production in collisions of 30 MeV O q+ projectiles (q=4-8) and O 2 targets. Measured double differential BEe cross-sections are found to increase with decreasing charge-state q, in agreement with similar previously reported zero-degree investigations for H 2 and He targets. However, measurements for the same system but at 25 degrees shows the opposite trend, that BEe cross sections decrease slightly with decreasing charge state

Decreasing soil water Ca2+ reduces DOC adsorption in mineral soils: implications for long-term DOC trends in an upland forested catchment in southern Ontario, Canada.

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Kerr, Jason Grainger; Eimers, M Catherine

2012-06-15

Positive trends in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration have been observed in surface waters throughout North America and northern Europe. Although adsorption in mineral soils is an important driver of DOC in upland streams, little is known about the potential for changes in DOC adsorption to contribute to these trends. We hypothesized that long-term declines in soil water Ca(2+) levels, in response to declining acid deposition, might influence DOC adsorption and that this could contribute to long-term DOC trends in an upland forested catchment in south-central Ontario, Canada. Between 1987 and 2009, DOC concentrations increased significantly (pDOC concentration (DOC(np)), which is a measure of the soil water DOC concentration at equilibrium with the soil, ranged from 1.27 to 3.75 mg L(-1) in B horizon soils. This was similar to the mean DOC concentrations of B horizon soil water (2.04-6.30 mg L(-1)) and stream water (2.20 mg L(-1)), indicating that soil and stream water DOC concentrations are controlled by equilibrium processes at the soil-water interface. Adsorption experiments using variable Ca(2+) concentrations demonstrated that as Ca(2+) decreased the DOC(np) increased (1.96 to 4.74 mg L(-1)), which was consistent with the observed negative correlation between DOC and Ca(2+) in B horizon soil water (pDOC adsorption (p>0.05), indicating that changes in DOC adsorption might be related to cation bridging. We conclude that declines in soil water Ca(2+) concentration can contribute to increasing DOC trends in upland streams by reducing DOC adsorption in mineral soils. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term trend of foE in European higher middle latitudes

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Laštovička, Jan

2016-04-01

Long-term changes and trends have been observed in the whole ionosphere below its maximum. As concerns the E region, historical global data (Bremer, 2008) provide predominantly slightly positive trend, even though some stations provide a negative trend. Here we use data of two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence is complex. For yearly average values for Chilton first foE is decreasing in 1975-1990 by about 0.1 MHz, then the trend levels off or a little increase occurs in 1990-2004, and finally in 2004-2014 again a decrease is observed (again by about 0.1 MHz but over shorter period). Juliusruh yields a similar pattern. Similar analysis is also done for some months to check seasonal dependence of trends. The stability of relation between solar activity and foE is tested to clarify potential role of this factor in apparent trend of foE.

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981–2000

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López-Abente Gonzalo

2006-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Methods Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981–2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. Results For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Conclusion Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising

Rain-season trends in precipitation and their effect in different climate regions of China during 1961-2008

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Yanling; Achberger, Christine; Linderholm, Hans W

2011-01-01

Using high-quality precipitation data from 524 stations, the trends of a set of precipitation variables during the main rain season (May-September) from 1961 to 2008 for different climate regions in China were analysed. However, different characteristics were displayed in different regions of China. In most temperate monsoon regions (north-eastern China), total rain-season precipitation and precipitation days showed decreasing trends; positive tendencies in precipitation intensity were, however, noted for most stations in this region. It is suggested that the decrease in rain-season precipitation is mainly related to there being fewer rain days and a change towards drier conditions in north-eastern China, and as a result, the available water resources have been negatively affected in the temperate monsoon regions. In most subtropical and tropical monsoon climate regions (south-eastern China), the rain-season precipitation and precipitation days (11-50, with > 50 mm) showed slightly positive trends. However, precipitation days with ≤ 10 mm decreased in these regions. Changes towards wetter conditions in this area, together with more frequent heavy rainfall events causing floods, have a severe impact on peoples' lives and socio-economic development. In general, the rain-season precipitation, precipitation days and rain-season precipitation intensity had all increased in the temperate continental and plateau/mountain regions of western China. This increase in rain-season precipitation has been favourable to pasture growth.

Trend of Legionella colonization in hospital water supply.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Alessandro, D; Fabiani, M; Cerquetani, F; Orsi, G B

2015-01-01

In many nosocomial Legionella outbreaks water distribution systems are the most frequent source of infection. Considering the hospital waterline old age, an investigation on colonization by Legionella spp was carried out in order to evaluate the pipeline system weaknesses and to implement environmental preventive measures. From 2004 to 2010, overall 97 samples from the water line were collected. The samples were analyzed according to the italian Legionella spp standard methods; water temperature, pH and residual free chlorine were determined at the time of collection. X2 test, exact-test and t-test were used to compare proportions and means. Overall 28 samples (23.7%) were positive for Legionella spp, and five of them (17.9%) exceeded the threshold level >104 cfu/L. The number of positive samples varied along the years, showing a significant increasing trend (X2 for trend = 11.5; pLegionella spp by comparison to negative ones showed a lower free chlorine concentration (0.08 mg/L vs 0.15 mg/L) and a higher water temperature (46.1° vs 42.7°). Actually the percentage of positive samples decreased significantly with the increasing in free chlorine in the water (X2 for trend = 8.53; pLegionella. All hospital buildings were colonized by Legionella spp, although 80% of samples >104 cfu/L occurred in the C-building. No cases of nosocomial legionellosis were reported during the study period. Hospital water system showed a diffuse colonization by Legionella spp, although the degree of contamination reached the threshold level (>104 cfu/L) only in a small percentage of samples, showing a substantial effectiveness of the control measures applied.

Causes of spring vegetation growth trends in the northern mid–high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mao Jiafu; Shi Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter E; Piao Shilong; Wang Xuhui

2012-01-01

The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial–temporal patterns of spring (April–May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid–high latitudes (NMH) (>25°N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI–temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO 2 . Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity. (letter)

Causes of spring vegetation greenness trends in the northern mid-high latitudes from 1982 to 2004

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mao, Jiafu [ORNL; Shi, Xiaoying [ORNL; Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Shilong, Dr. Piao [Peking University; Xuhui, Dr. Wang [Peking University

2012-01-01

The Community Land Model version 4 (CLM4) is applied to explore the spatial temporal patterns of spring (April May) vegetation growth trends over the northern mid high latitudes (NMH) (>25 N) between 1982 and 2004. During the spring season through the 23 yr period, both the satellite-derived and simulated normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) anomalies show a statistically significant correlation and an overall greening trend within the study area. Consistently with the observed NDVI temperature relation, the CLM4 NDVI shows a significant positive association with the spring temperature anomaly for the NMH, North America and Eurasia. Large study areas experience temperature discontinuity associated with contrasting NDVI trends. Before and after the turning point (TP) of the temperature trends, climatic variability plays a dominant role, while the other environmental factors exert minor effects on the NDVI tendencies. Simulated vegetation growth is broadly stimulated by the increasing atmospheric CO2. Trends show that nitrogen deposition increases NDVI mostly in southeastern China, and decreases NDVI mainly in western Russia after the temperature TP. Furthermore, land use-induced NDVI trends vary roughly with the respective changes in land management practices (crop areas and forest coverage). Our results highlight how non-climatic factors mitigate or exacerbate the impact of temperature on spring vegetation growth, particularly across regions with intensive human activity.

Temperature and ice layer trends in the summer middle atmosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Lübken, F.-J.; Berger, U.

2012-04-01

We present results from our LIMA model (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere Model) which nicely reproduces mean conditions of the summer mesopause region and also mean characteristics of ice layers known as noctilucent clouds. LIMA nudges to ECMWF data in the troposphere and lower stratosphere which influences the background conditions in the mesosphere. We study temperature trends in the mesosphere at middle and polar latitudes and compared with temperature trends from satellites, lidar, and phase height observations. For the first time large observed temperature trends in the summer mesosphere can be reproduced and explained by a model. As will be shown, stratospheric ozone has a major impact on temperature trends in the summer mesosphere. The temperature trend is not uniform in time: it is moderate from 1961 (the beginning of our record) until the beginning of the 1980s. Thereafter, temperatures decrease much stronger until the mid 1990s. Thereafter, temperatures are nearly constant or even increase with time. As will be shown, trends in ozone and carbon dioxide explain most of this behavior. Ice layers in the summer mesosphere are very sensitive to background conditions and are therefore considered to be appropriate tracers for long term variations in the middle atmosphere. We use LIMA background conditions to determine ice layer characteristics in the mesopause region. We compare our results with measurements, for example with albedos from the SBUV satellites, and show that we can nicely reproduce observed trends. It turns out that temperature trends are positive (negative) in the upper (lower) part of the ice layer regime. This complicates an interpretation of NLC long term variations in terms of temperature trends.

SNA Releases Back to School Nutrition Trends Report: Results Show What Schools Are Doing to Increase Healthy Options for Kids

Science.gov (United States)

Curriculum Review, 2008

2008-01-01

This article talks about the School Nutrition Association's 2008 Back to School Nutrition Trends Report that was released on August 19. According to the report, the trend towards more healthful school meal choices continues this fall with district nutrition programs emphasizing whole grains, fruits, and vegetables while cutting back on trans fats,…

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santos, Mario; Freitas, Raul; Crespi, Antonio L.; Hughes, Samantha Jane; Cabral, Joao Alexandre

2011-01-01

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: → Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. → Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. → Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.→ Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.→ Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com [Herbarium, UTAD Botanical Garden, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com [Herbarium, UTAD Botanical Garden, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Hughes, Samantha Jane, E-mail: shughes@utad.pt [Department of Forest and Landscape, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal); Cabral, Joao Alexandre, E-mail: jcabral@utad.pt [Laboratory of Applied Ecology, CITAB-Centre for the Research and Technology of Agro-Environment and Biological Sciences, University of Tras-os-Montes e Alto Douro, 5000-911 Vila Real (Portugal)

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasing populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.

Trends and variability in climate parameters of peshawar district

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, S.A.A.; Nisa, S.; Khan, A.; Rahman, Z.U.

2012-01-01

Rain fall pattern, daily minimum and maximum temperatures and humidity are the main factors that constitute the climate of an area. In Pakistan, consecutive positive anomalies have been observed in minimum, maximum and mean temperatures and rainfall since mid 1970s. The objective of the current study was to investigate the recent trends and variability of annual minimum, maximum and mean temperatures, relative humidity and rainfall of Peshawar. Annual meteorological parameters for 30-years (1981-2010) of Peshawar observatory have been analysed to determine indications of variations from long-term averages. Different statistical methods were used to analyse the data. For this purpose, Mann-Kendall test was applied to Meteorological data of Peshawar (1981-2010) to study any trend, which were revealed to be in a mixture. The final results show that rainfall is decreasing, minimum temperature, mean temperature and relative humidity are increasing and maximum temperature has no change. Various factors could be responsible for the contemporary trends in climate like rise in number of vehicles and industries from reviewing available literature, keeping in mind the nature of the study. Trends found may have negative implications for agriculture, health and socioeconomic conditions of the region that require the attention from relevant stakeholders. (author)

Time trends of chronic HBV infection over prior decades - A global analysis.

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Ott, Jördis J; Horn, Johannes; Krause, Gérard; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T

2017-01-01

Information on trends in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) prevalence across countries is lacking. We studied changes in chronic HBV infection over previous decades by country, and assessed patterns of change between and within WHO-defined regions. Based on data from a published systematic review on chronic HBV, we applied a linear model on the logit scale to assess time trends in country-specific prevalence. Estimated HBsAg prevalence in 2000 and relative changes in prevalence over time were evaluated by country and region. Sufficient data were available for 50 countries, mostly showing reductions in prevalence over time. Various degrees of heterogeneity were observed within regions, with a relatively homogenous pattern in the Eastern Mediterranean region with strong decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Europe showed a mixed pattern: higher and stable chronic HBsAg prevalence in Eastern, and constantly low prevalence in Western Europe. In Africa, some countries demonstrated no change in prevalence; increases were seen in Uganda (odds ratio 1.05 per year; 95% confidence interval 1.04-1.06), Nigeria (1.02; 1.02-1.02), Senegal (1.01; 1.01-1.02), and South Africa (1.02; 1.01-1.02). With some exceptions, country-patterns overlapped among countries of South East Asian and Western Pacific regions, characterized by low-medium HBsAg decreases, most prominent in China and Malaysia. Most countries experienced decreases in HBsAg prevalence. Dynamics varied, even within regions; decreases occurred mostly before the direct effects of childhood vaccination may have manifested. These findings together with stable and increasing HBsAg prevalence in some countries of Africa and Eastern Europe indicate the need for further tailored country-specific prevention. This study investigated time trends in prevalence of chronic HBV infection in 50 countries worldwide over the last decade, by estimating relative changes in prevalence. Results show decreases in chronic HBV infection in most countries

Aerosol impacts on regional trends in atmospheric stagnation

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Mascioli, N. R.; Fiore, A. M.; Previdi, M. J.

2017-12-01

Extreme pollution events pose a significant threat to human health and are a leading cause of premature mortality worldwide. While emissions of atmospheric pollutants and their precursors are projected to decrease in the future due to air quality legislation, future climate change may affect the underlying meteorological conditions that contribute to extreme pollution events. Stagnation events, characterized by weak winds and an absence of precipitation, contribute to extreme pollution by halting the removal of pollutants via advection and wet deposition. Here, we use a global climate model (GFDL-CM3) to show that regional stagnation trends over the historical period (1860-2005) are driven by changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions, rather than rising greenhouse gases. In the northeastern and central United States, aerosol-induced changes in surface and upper level winds have produced significant decreases in the number of stagnant summer days, while decreasing precipitation in the southeast US has increased the number of stagnant summer days. Significant drying over eastern China in response to aerosol forcing contributed to increased stagnation. Additionally, this region was found to be particularly sensitive to changes in local emissions, indicating that improving air quality will also lessen stagnation. In Europe, we find a dipole pattern wherein stagnation decreases over southern Europe and increases over northern Europe in response to global increases in aerosol emissions. We hypothesize that this is due to changes in the large-scale circulation patterns associated with a poleward shift of the North Atlantic storm track. We find that in the future, the combination of declining aerosol emissions and the continued rise of greenhouse gas emissions will lead to a reversal of the historical stagnation trends.

Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature, and salinity

Science.gov (United States)

Robbins, Lisa L.; Lisle, John T.

2018-01-01

Increasing global CO2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10−4 pH units year−1, and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10−4 pH units year−1. The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

Regional acidification trends in Florida shellfish estuaries: A 20+ year look at pH, oxygen, temperature and salinity

Science.gov (United States)

Robbins, Lisa L.; Lisle, John T.

2018-01-01

Increasing global CO2 and local land use changes coupled with increased nutrient pollution are threatening estuaries worldwide. Local changes of estuarine chemistry have been documented, but regional associations and trends comparing multiple estuaries latitudinally have not been evaluated. Rapid climate change has impacted the annual and decadal chemical trends in estuaries, with local ecosystem processes enhancing or mitigating the responses. Here, we compare pH, dissolved oxygen, temperature, and salinity data from 10 Florida shellfish estuaries and hundreds of shellfish bed stations. Over 80,000 measurements, spanning from 1980 to 2008, taken on Atlantic Ocean and West Florida coast showed significant regional trends of consistent pH decreases in 8 out of the 10 estuaries, with an average rate of decrease on the Gulf of Mexico side estuaries of Florida of 7.3 × 10−4 pH units year−1, and average decrease on the Atlantic Coast estuaries of 5.0 × 10−4 pH units year−1. The rates are approximately 2–3.4 times slower than observed in pH decreases associated with ocean acidification in the Atlantic and Pacific. Other significant trends observed include decreasing dissolved oxygen in 9 out of the 10 estuaries, increasing salinity in 6 out of the 10, and temperature increases in 3 out of the 10 estuaries. The data provide a synoptic regional view of Florida estuary trends which reflect the complexity of changing climate and coastal ocean acidification superimposed on local conditions. These data provide context for understanding, and interpreting the past and predicting future of regional water quality health of shellfish and other organisms of commercial and ecological significance along Florida’s coasts.

Temporal trends (1999–2010) of perfluoroalkyl acids in commonly consumed food items

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johansson, Jana H.; Berger, Urs; Vestergren, Robin; Cousins, Ian T.; Bignert, Anders; Glynn, Anders; Darnerud, Per Ola

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to determine how dietary exposure to PFAAs has changed over the period when major production changes occurred. Archived samples (1999–2010) of eggs, milk and farmed rainbow trout were analyzed by ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry. Statistically significant decreasing trends were observed for concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS) in fish (p < 0.002 and p < 0.032, respectively) and eggs (p < 0.001 for both compounds). Concentrations of PFOS in fish and eggs decreased by a factor of 10 and 40, respectively. In eggs there was also a statistically significant decreasing trend in concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The results of this study demonstrate that PFAA concentrations in food items from agricultural food chains and aquatic food chains close to sources respond rapidly to changes in environmental emissions. Implications for the overall understanding of human exposure are discussed. - Highlights: • Food items sampled yearly (1999–2010) were analyzed for perfluoroalkyl acids. • Significantly declining trends were observed for PFOS and PFHxS in farmed fish and eggs. • In eggs, an additional significant decreasing trend was found for PFOA. • A decrease in human dietary exposure to PFHxS, PFOS and PFOA is suggested. - Concentrations of PFOS in farmed fish and in hen's eggs decreased between 1999 and 2010. Furthermore, we observed decreasing trends of PFOA in eggs and PFHxS in fish

2010-2015 methane trends over Canada, the United States, and Mexico observed by the GOSAT satellite: contributions from different source sectors

Science.gov (United States)

Sheng, J. X.; Jacob, D.; Turner, A. J.; Maasakkers, J. D.; Benmergui, J. S.; Bloom, A. A.; Arndt, C.; Gautam, R.; Zavala Araiza, D.; Hamburg, S.; Boesch, H.; Parker, R.

2017-12-01

We use six years (2010-2015) of methane column data from the GOSAT satellite to examine trends in atmospheric methane over North America and infer trends in emissions. Local methane enhancements above background are diagnosed in the GOSAT data on a 0.5°x0.5° grid by estimating the local background as the low (10th-25th) quantile of the deseasonalized frequency distributions of the data for individual years. Trends in methane enhancements on the 0.5°x0.5° grid are then aggregated nationally and for individual source sectors, using information from state-of-science bottom-up inventories, to increase statistical power. We infer that US methane emissions increased by 1.9% a-1 over the six-year period, with contributions from both oil/gas systems (possibly unconventional gas production) and from livestock in the Midwest (possibly swine production). Mexican emissions show a decrease that can be attributed to a decreasing cattle population. Canadian emissions show interannual variability driven by wetlands emissions and correlated with wetland areal extent. The US emission trends inferred from the GOSAT data are within the constraint provided by surface observations from the North American Carbon Program network.

Tropical Indian Ocean warming contributions to China winter climate trends since 1960

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qigang; Yao, Yonghong; Liu, Shizuo; Cao, DanDan; Cheng, Luyao; Hu, Haibo; Sun, Leng; Yao, Ying; Yang, Zhiqi; Gao, Xuxu; Schroeder, Steven R.

2018-01-01

This study investigates observed and modeled contributions of global sea surface temperature (SST) to China winter climate trends in 1960-2014, including increased precipitation, warming through about 1997, and cooling since then. Observations and Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations with prescribed historical SST and sea ice show that tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) warming and increasing rainfall causes diabatic heating that generates a tropospheric wave train with anticyclonic 500-hPa height anomaly centers in the TIO or equatorial western Pacific (TIWP) and northeastern Eurasia (EA) and a cyclonic anomaly over China, referred to as the TIWP-EA wave train. The cyclonic anomaly causes Indochina moisture convergence and southwesterly moist flow that enhances South China precipitation, while the northern anticyclone enhances cold surges, sometimes causing severe ice storms. AMIP simulations show a 1960-1997 China cooling trend by simulating increasing instead of decreasing Arctic 500-hPa heights that move the northern anticyclone into Siberia, but enlarge the cyclonic anomaly so it still simulates realistic China precipitation trend patterns. A separate idealized TIO SST warming simulation simulates the TIWP-EA feature more realistically with correct precipitation patterns and supports the TIWP-EA teleconnection as the primary mechanism for long-term increasing precipitation in South China since 1960. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) experiments simulate a reduced TIO SST warming trend and weak precipitation trends, so the TIWP-EA feature is absent and strong drying is simulated in South China for 1960-1997. These simulations highlight the need for accurately modeled SST to correctly attribute regional climate trends.

Trends in Accounting Education: Decreasing Accounting Anxiety and Promoting New Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Buckhaults, Jessica; Fisher, Diane

2011-01-01

In this paper, authors (a) identified accounting anxiety for the educator and the student as a possible explanation for the decline in accounting education and (b) investigated new methods for teaching accounting at the secondary and postsecondary levels that will increase interest in accounting education as well as decrease educator and student…

Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

Science.gov (United States)

Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

2018-05-01

Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

Accumulation features and temporal trends of PCDDs, PCDFs and PCBs in Baikal seals (Pusa sibirica)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Imaeda, Daisuke; Kunisue, Tatsuya; Ochi, Yoko; Iwata, Hisato; Tsydenova, Oyuna; Takahashi, Shin; Amano, Masao; Petrov, Evgeny A.; Batoev, Valeriy B.; Tanabe, Shinsuke

2009-01-01

This study investigated the accumulation features and temporal trends of PCDD/Fs, dioxin-like PCBs (DL-PCBs) and non-dioxin-like PCBs (NDL-PCBs) in the blubber of Baikal seals collected in 1992 and 2005. DL-PCBs (480-3600 ng/g) and NDL-PCBs (980-35,000 ng/g) were dominant contaminants. Concentrations of PCDDs and PCBs in males were significantly higher than in females. In males, age-dependent accumulation was observed for PCDDs, mono-ortho PCBs and NDL-PCBs. PCDFs and non-ortho PCBs showed no such trends, implying that exposure of seals to these contaminants has been decreasing in recent years. No decreasing temporal trend was observed for PCDDs, mono-ortho PCBs and NDL-PCBs, suggesting that Baikal seals are still exposed to PCDDs and PCBs. TEQs of PCDDs and mono-ortho PCBs in seals collected in 2005 accounted for 62-77% of total TEQs. The TEQ levels in 40% of the specimens exceeded the threshold level for immunosuppression observed in harbor seals (209 pg/g). - Concentrations of PCDDs and PCBs remain high in Baikal seals

The six year report: Acidification of surface water in Europe and North America. Dose/response relationships and long-term trends

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Skjelkvaale, B L; Newell, A D; Raddum, G; Johannessen, M; Hovind, H; Tjomsland, T; Wathne, B M

1994-12-31

This report discusses The International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Acidification of Rivers and Lakes, which is designed to (1) establish degree and extent of acidification of surface waters, (2) evaluate dose/response relationships and (3) define long-term trends and variations in aquatic chemistry and biota attributable to atmospheric pollution. Data from 200 sites in 14 countries of Europe and North America are available. Dose/response relationships show that the fauna is adapted to different water qualities in different regions, and that critical limits for the fauna must be calculated according to data for the specific region. Long-term trends of water chemistry show decreases in SO{sub 4}{sup 2-} and Ca{sup 2+} at many sites. Nitrate shows no consistent trends. 66 refs., 26 figs., 16 tabs.

Trends in statin consumption and cardiovascular mortality in Croatia 2004-2012.

Science.gov (United States)

Vojvodić, Zeljko; Stimac, Danijela

2014-12-01

Prescribing of statins showed an increasing trend in all developed countries, during the last two decades. The aim of this study was to research the trends in statin consumption in the period from 2004 to 2012 as well as trends of cardiovascular mortality during the 1990 to 2012 period, and to compare them between Croatia and several neighbouring countries. Data on statin expenditures and consumption expresed in defined daily doses per 1000 inhabitants per day (DDD/TID), were taken from annual reports of Croatian Agency for Medicinal Products and Medical Devices (HALMED). Data on crude mortality rates and standardized cardiovascular mortality rates, were taken from the Croatian Health Statistics Yearbooks. The utilization of statins increased by 196.7% during the observed period, with the highest consumption of atorvastatin and simvastatin. Financial expenditure of statins expanded at much faster rate in comparison with overall drug costs. Cardiovascular mortality rates decreased slightly, while maintaining higher level in comparison with some neighbouring countries.

Impacts of precipitation and temperature trends on different time scales on the water cycle and water resource availability in mountainous Mediterranean catchments.

Science.gov (United States)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2017-04-01

Climatology trends, precipitation and temperature variations condition the hydrological evolution of the river flow response at basin and sub-basin scales. The link between both climate and flow trends is crucial in mountainous areas, where small variations in temperature can produce significant impacts on precipitation (occurrence as rainfall or snowfall), snowmelt and evaporation, and consequently very different flow signatures. This importance is greater in semiarid regions, where the high variability of the climatic annual and seasonal regimes usually amplifies this impact on river flow. The Sierra Nevada National Park (Southern Spain), with altitudes ranging from 2000 to 3500 m.a.s.l., is part of the global climate change observatories network and a clear example of snow regions in a semiarid environment. This mountain range is head of different catchments, being the Guadalfeo River Basin one of the most influenced by the snow regime. This study shows the observed 55-year (1961-2015) trends of annual precipitation and daily mean temperature, and the associated impacts on snowfall and snow persistence, and the resulting trend of the annual river flow in the Guadalfeo River Basin (Southern Spain), a semiarid abrupt mountainous area (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) facing the Mediterranean Sea where the Alpine and Mediterranean climates coexist in a domain highly influenced by the snow regime, and a significant seasonality in the flow regime. The annual precipitation and annual daily mean temperature experimented a decreasing trend of 2.05 mm/year and an increasing trend of 0.037 °C/year, respectively, during the study period, with a high variability on a decadal basis. However, the torrential precipitation events are more frequent in the last few years of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. The estimated annual snowfall trend shows a decreasing trend of 0.24 mm/year, associated to the decrease of precipitation rather than to temperature

A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

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Esther Quintero

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats.Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions.Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

Science.gov (United States)

Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

2014-01-01

Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

Trends into rainfall time series of two andes basins of Valle del Cauca (Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faisury Cardona-Guerrero

2014-01-01

Full Text Available With the goal of detecting changes or trends in registered data of daily rainfall in the basins of rivers Dagua and Cali, located in the south-west of Colombia, in the Valle del Cauca, nine climate extremes indices were calculated using the RClimDex software. For this, precipitation trends were analyzed in 18 rain gauges located in the study area with historical series ranging between 21 and 56 years. Homogeneity tests were made to data to ensure consistency in the information. The results show changes in rainfall, dominated by the increasing trends for almost all indices; however most of the trends do not show high statistical significance. Also, a significant increase in the average annual total rainfall of 15.2 mm (Dagua river basin and 9.1 mm (Cali river basin in the stations located below 1500 msnm was obtained. Moreover, in the stations located at higher elevations, decreases were observed. There is a homogeneous spatial distribution for the most of the indices and similar patterns were found located in defined areas of the study zone, which may affect the runoff production in watersheds in the coming years.

Seabirds, gyres and global trends in plastic pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

van Franeker, Jan A; Law, Kara Lavender

2015-08-01

Fulmars are effective biological indicators of the abundance of floating plastic marine debris. Long-term data reveal high plastic abundance in the southern North Sea, gradually decreasing to the north at increasing distance from population centres, with lowest levels in high-arctic waters. Since the 1980s, pre-production plastic pellets in North Sea fulmars have decreased by ∼75%, while user plastics varied without a strong overall change. Similar trends were found in net-collected floating plastic debris in the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, with a ∼75% decrease in plastic pellets and no obvious trend in user plastic. The decreases in pellets suggest that changes in litter input are rapidly visible in the environment not only close to presumed sources, but also far from land. Floating plastic debris is rapidly "lost" from the ocean surface to other as-yet undetermined sinks in the marine environment. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kierkegaard, A.; Bignert, A.; Sellstroem, U.; Olsson, M.; Asplund, L.; Jansson, B.; Wit, C.A. de

2004-07-01

Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s ({sigma}5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location. - PBDEs and MeO-BDEs show different temporal trends in pike from a Swedish lake suggesting different sources.

Ten-year trends of atmospheric mercury in the high Arctic compared to Canadian sub-Arctic and mid-latitude sites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Cole

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Global emissions of mercury continue to change at the same time as the Arctic is experiencing ongoing climatic changes. Continuous monitoring of atmospheric mercury provides important information about long-term trends in the balance between transport, chemistry, and deposition of this pollutant in the Arctic atmosphere. Ten-year records of total gaseous mercury (TGM from 2000 to 2009 were analyzed from two high Arctic sites at Alert (Nunavut, Canada and Zeppelin Station (Svalbard, Norway; one sub-Arctic site at Kuujjuarapik (Nunavik, Québec, Canada; and three temperate Canadian sites at St. Anicet (Québec, Kejimkujik (Nova Scotia and Egbert (Ontario. Five of the six sites examined showed a decreasing trend over this time period. Overall trend estimates at high latitude sites were: −0.9% yr⁻¹ (95% confidence limits: −1.4, 0 at Alert and no trend (−0.5, +0.7 at Zeppelin Station. Faster decreases were observed at the remainder of the sites: −2.1% yr⁻¹ (−3.1, −1.1 at Kuujjuarapik, −1.9% yr⁻¹ (−2.1, −1.8 at St. Anicet, −1.6% yr⁻¹ (−2.4, −1.0 at Kejimkujik and −2.2% yr⁻¹ (−2.8, −1.7 at Egbert. Trends at the sub-Arctic and mid-latitude sites agree with reported decreases in background TGM concentration since 1996 at Mace Head, Ireland, and Cape Point, South Africa, but conflict with estimates showing an increase in global anthropogenic emissions over a similar period. Trends in TGM at the two high Arctic sites were not only less negative (or neutral overall but much more variable by season. Possible reasons for differences in seasonal and overall trends at the Arctic sites compared to those at lower latitudes are discussed, as well as implications for the Arctic mercury cycle. The first calculations of multi-year trends in reactive gaseous mercury (RGM and total particulate mercury (TPM at Alert were also performed, indicating increases from 2002 to 2009

Trends in obstetric radiography, 1939-81

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilman, E.A.; Stewart, A.M.; Knox, E.G.; Kneale, G.W.

1989-01-01

Trends in obstetric radiography in Britian between 1939 and 1981 are reported. During this period the number of films needed to complete each examination decreased. The timing of x-rays also changed towards late pregnancy, and there was virtual elimination of all first trimester exposures following the introduction of the '10-day rule' in 1972. After the introduction of ultrasound, x-rays for twins decreased, x-rays for breech presentations remained unchanged and x-rays for foetal maturity increased. Despite repeated demonstrations of the cancer risk, the proportion of exposed infants was higher in 1970-81 (14%) than in 1960-9 (11%) or 1950-9 (12%). There were fewer x-rays in 1976-81 (12%) than in 1970-5 (15%), but it is possible that withdrawal of the '10-day rule' in 1985 will reverse this trend. (author)

Trends of river discharges in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ulaga, F; Kobold, M; Frantar, P

2008-01-01

Trends of river discharges are very important in recognition of climate changes and also in water management. In last years droughts and floods are more and more frequent, therefore monitoring and investigating of hydrological situation became one of the guidance scientific approach. In analysis of mean annual discharges made in Agency of the Republic of Slovenia for the Environment in last years, statistical significance trend was find out only by rivers of northwest alpine region [1] [2] [3]. In recent research of time changing discharges, presumption of generally decreasing of water quantity all over Slovenia was confirmed. Our basic conclusion - in Slovenia it is well recognized decreasing of water quantity in long period of observation. This fact and also worsening of water quality became alarming problems of our future, especially in dry months of the year.

Trend Analysis of Cancer Mortality and Incidence in Panama, Using Joinpoint Regression Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Politis, Michael; Higuera, Gladys; Chang, Lissette Raquel; Gomez, Beatriz; Bares, Juan; Motta, Jorge

2015-06-01

Cancer is one of the leading causes of death worldwide and its incidence is expected to increase in the future. In Panama, cancer is also one of the leading causes of death. In 1964, a nationwide cancer registry was started and it was restructured and improved in 2012. The aim of this study is to utilize Joinpoint regression analysis to study the trends of the incidence and mortality of cancer in Panama in the last decade. Cancer mortality was estimated from the Panamanian National Institute of Census and Statistics Registry for the period 2001 to 2011. Cancer incidence was estimated from the Panamanian National Cancer Registry for the period 2000 to 2009. The Joinpoint Regression Analysis program, version 4.0.4, was used to calculate trends by age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates for selected cancers. Overall, the trend of age-adjusted cancer mortality in Panama has declined over the last 10 years (-1.12% per year). The cancers for which there was a significant increase in the trend of mortality were female breast cancer and ovarian cancer; while the highest increases in incidence were shown for breast cancer, liver cancer, and prostate cancer. Significant decrease in the trend of mortality was evidenced for the following: prostate cancer, lung and bronchus cancer, and cervical cancer; with respect to incidence, only oral and pharynx cancer in both sexes had a significant decrease. Some cancers showed no significant trends in incidence or mortality. This study reveals contrasting trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Panama in the last decade. Although Panama is considered an upper middle income nation, this study demonstrates that some cancer mortality trends, like the ones seen in cervical and lung cancer, behave similarly to the ones seen in high income countries. In contrast, other types, like breast cancer, follow a pattern seen in countries undergoing a transition to a developed economy with its associated lifestyle, nutrition, and body weight

Trends and Variability in Temperature Sensitivity of Lilac Flowering Phenology

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Huanjiong; Dai, Junhu; Rutishauser, This; Gonsamo, Alemu; Wu, Chaoyang; Ge, Quansheng

2018-03-01

The responses of plant phenology to temperature variability have many consequences for ecological processes, agriculture, forestry, and human health. Temperature sensitivity (ST) of phenology could measure how and to what degree plant could phenologically track climate change. The long-term trends and spatial patterns in ST have been well studied for vegetative phenology such as leaf unfolding, but trends to be expected for reproductive phenology in the future remain unknown. Here we investigate trends and factors driving the temporal variation of ST of first bloom date (FBD). Using the long-term FBD records during 1963-2013 for common lilac (Syringa vulgaris) from 613 stations in Europe, we compared changes in ST from the beginning to the end of the study period. The Spearman partial correlations were used to assess the importance of four influencing factors. The results showed that the temporal changes in ST of FBD varied considerably among time scales. Mean ST decreased significantly by 0.92 days °C-1 from 1963-1972 to 2004-2013 (P plant species in other climates and environments using similar methods to our study.

Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

Science.gov (United States)

Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

2017-03-15

In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Trend Analysis of Droughts during Crop Growing Seasons of Nigeria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammed Sanusi Shiru

2018-03-01

Full Text Available This study assesses the impacts of recent climate changes on drought-affected areas and the occurrence of droughts during different cropping seasons of Nigeria using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI. The crop growing seasons are considered because the droughts for those periods are more destructive to national agricultural production. The Mann–Kendall test and binary logistic regression were used to quantify the trends in drought-affected areas and the occurrence of crop droughts with different areal extents, respectively. Gauge-based gridded rainfall and temperature data for the period 1961–2010 with spatial resolutions of 0.5° were used. Results showed an increase in the areal extent of droughts during some of the cropping seasons. The occurrences of droughts, particularly moderate droughts with smaller areal extents, were found to increase for all of the seasons. The SPEI values calculated decreased mostly in the regions where rainfall was decreasing. That is, the recent changes in climate were responsible for the increase in the occurrences of droughts with smaller areal extents. These trends in climate indicate that the occurrence of larger areal extent droughts may happen more frequently in Nigeria in the future.

Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaagus, J.

1996-01-01

Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

Trend analysis of body weight parameters, mortality, and incidence of spontaneous tumors in Tg.rasH2 mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Paranjpe, Madhav G; Denton, Melissa D; Vidmar, Tom; Elbekai, Reem H

2014-01-01

Carcinogenicity studies have been performed in conventional 2-year rodent studies for at least 3 decades, whereas the short-term carcinogenicity studies in transgenic mice, such as Tg.rasH2, have only been performed over the last decade. In the 2-year conventional rodent studies, interlinked problems, such as increasing trends in the initial body weights, increased body weight gains, high incidence of spontaneous tumors, and low survival, that complicate the interpretation of findings have been well established. However, these end points have not been evaluated in the short-term carcinogenicity studies involving the Tg.rasH2 mice. In this article, we present retrospective analysis of data obtained from control groups in 26-week carcinogenicity studies conducted in Tg.rasH2 mice since 2004. Our analysis showed statistically significant decreasing trends in initial body weights of both sexes. Although the terminal body weights did not show any significant trends, there was a statistically significant increasing trend toward body weight gains, more so in males than in females, which correlated with increasing trends in the food consumption. There were no statistically significant alterations in mortality trends. In addition, the incidence of all common spontaneous tumors remained fairly constant with no statistically significant differences in trends. © The Author(s) 2014.

Temporal Trends of Hexabromocyclododecane, Polybrominated Diphenyl Ethers and Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Ringed Seals from East Greenland

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vorkamp, Katrin; Riget, Frank Farsø; Bossi, Rossana

2011-01-01

also was found for adult seals with a time trend starting in 1994. ΣPCB decreased significantly in juvenile seals, again due to the 1986 value, while no trend was found for the adult animals. This indicates stagnating PCB concentrations at a relatively high level, in some cases possibly exceeding......Concentrations of hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD) were determined in a combination of archived and fresh blubber samples of juvenile ringed seals from East Greenland collected between 1986 and 2008. R-HBCD was the only diastereoisomer consistently above levels of quantification and showed...... on polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) have been extended with new data for 2006 and 2008. ΣPBDE in juvenile seals was the only parameter with a slight upward trend, however, dependent on the low 1986 concentration. Removing this data point resulted in a downward trend, which...

Decadal trends of the upper ocean salinity in the tropical Indo-Pacific since mid-1990s.

Science.gov (United States)

Du, Yan; Zhang, Yuhong; Feng, Ming; Wang, Tianyu; Zhang, Ningning; Wijffels, Susan

2015-11-02

A contrasting trend pattern of sea surface salinity (SSS) between the western tropical Pacific (WTP) and the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO) is observed during 2004-2013, with significant salinity increase in the WTP and freshening in the SETIO. In this study, we show that increased precipitation around the Maritime Continent (MC), decreased precipitation in the western-central tropical Pacific, and ocean advection processes contribute to the salinity trends in the region. From a longer historical record, these salinity trends started in the mid-1990s, a few years before the Global Warming Hiatus from 1998 to present. The salinity trends are associated a strengthening trend of the Walker Circulation over the tropical Indo-Pacific, which have reversed the long-term salinity changes in the tropical Indo-Pacific as a consequence of global warming. Understanding decadal variations of SSS in the tropical Indo-Pacific will better inform on how the tropical hydrological cycle will be affected by the natural variability and a warming climate.

Nitrogen Dioxide Trend over the United States: the View from the Ground, the View from Space

Science.gov (United States)

Lamsal, Lok N.; Duncan, Bryan N.; Yoshida, Yasuko; Krotkov, Nickolay A.

2014-01-01

Emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) are decreasing over the US due to environmental policies and technological change. We use observations of tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO2) columns from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite instrument and surface NO2 in-situ measurements from the air quality system (AQS) to quantify the trends, and to establish the relationship between the trends in tropospheric column and surface concentration. Both observations show substantial downward trends from 2005 to 2013, with an average reduction of 35 percent according to OMI and 38 percent according to AQS. The annual reduction rates are largest in 2005-2009: -6.2 percent per year and -7 percent per year observed by OMI and AQS, respectively. We examine various factors affecting the estimated trend in OMI NO2 columns and in-situ NO2 observations. An improved understanding of trend offers valuable insights about effectiveness of emission reduction regulations on state and federal level.

Trends in price and productivity in the fur sector

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Henning Otte

2016-01-01

in the long term. The terms of trade - the ratio between output and input prices - is also unstable but with a clear negative long-term trend. The developments in prices and productivity cause high demands on management both on individual fur farms and further down the value chain.......Price and productivity are two important competitive factors for the fur skin production worldwide. In the paper it is demonstrated that there are significant long-term trends towards increasing productivity and decreasing price ratios. The trend follows the same pattern as for other agricultural...... products. The analysis is based on Danish conditions as a case. By using different measurement methods it is demonstrated that productivity is increasing in several places in fur value chain. The fur skin prices, which are largely determined in international markets, are both very volatile and decreasing...

Long-term trends in the ionospheric E and F1 regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Bremer

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Ground based ionosonde measurements are the most essential source of information about long-term variations in the ionospheric E and F1 regions. Data of such observations have been derived at many different ionospheric stations all over the world some for more than 50 years. The standard parameters foE, h'E, and foF1 are used for trend analyses in this paper. Two main problems have to be considered in these analyses. Firstly, the data series have to be homogeneous, i.e. the observations should not be disturbed by artificial steps due to technical reasons or changes in the evaluation algorithm. Secondly, the strong solar and geomagnetic influences upon the ionospheric data have carefully to be removed by an appropriate regression analysis. Otherwise the small trends in the different ionospheric parameters cannot be detected.

The trends derived at individual stations differ markedly, however their dependence on geographic or geomagnetic latitude is only small. Nevertheless, the mean global trends estimated from the trends at the different stations show some general behaviour (positive trends in foE and foF1, negative trend in h'E which can at least qualitatively be explained by an increasing atmospheric greenhouse effect (increase of CO₂ content and other greenhouse gases and decreasing ozone values. The positive foE trend is also in qualitative agreement with rocket mass spectrometer observations of ion densities in the E region. First indications could be found that the changing ozone trend at mid-latitudes (before about 1979, between 1979 until 1995, and after about 1995 modifies the estimated mean foE trend.

Trend Monitoring and Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-11

including breaking news, meme , and commemorative day, on the context patterns. Table 2 shows the example pattern of classifying context pattern feature...used the following rule to find the ‘ meme ’. If the trending topic contains ‘#’ AND ‘subject+verb’, then trending topic is ‘ Meme ’. Table 2 Context

Space-time patterns of trends in stratospheric constituents derived from UARS measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Randel, William J.; Wu, Fei; Russell, James M.; Waters, Joe

1999-02-01

The spatial and temporal behavior of low-frequency changes (trends) in stratospheric constituents measured by instruments on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) during 1991-98 is investigated. The data include CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2 from the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and O3, ClO, and HNO3 from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS). Time series of global anomalies are analyzed by linear regression and empirical orthogonal function analysis. Each of the constituents show significant linear trends over at least some region of the stratosphere, and the spatial patterns exhibit coupling between the different species. Several of the constituents (namely CH4, H2O, HF, HCl, O3, and NO2) exhibit a temporal change in trend rates, with strong changes prior to 1996 and weaker (or reversed) trends thereafter. Positive trends are observed in upper stratospheric ClO, with a percentage rate during 1993-97 consistent with stratospheric HCl increases and with tropospheric chlorine emission rates. Significant negative trends in ozone in the tropical middle stratosphere are found in both HALOE and MLS data during 1993-97, together with positive trends in the tropics near 25 km. These trends are very different from the decadal-scale ozone trends observed since 1979, and this demonstrates the variability of trends calculated over short time periods. Positive trends in NO2 are found in the tropical middle stratosphere, and spatial coincidence to the observed ozone decreases suggests the ozone is responding to the NO2 increase. Significant negative trends in HNO3 are found in the lower stratosphere of both hemispheres. These coupled signatures offer a fingerprint of chemical evolution in the stratosphere for the UARS time frame.

Updating trends in cutaneous cancers in south-east Belgium.

Science.gov (United States)

Uhoda, Isabelle; Quatresooz, Pascale; Fumal, Isabelle; Nikkels, Arjen F; Piérard-Franchimont, Claudine; Piérard, Gerald E

2004-07-01

From data collected in a dermatopathology laboratory, the ratios between the numbers of specific cancers represent good markers for identifying any epidemiological shift in their prevalence and incidence among the reference population. The objective of the present study was to assess the ratios of the annual incidence of skin cancers in the Mosan region and Ardennes of Belgium over the past 6 years, and to compare the data with previous similar evaluations. A total of 7,640 skin cancers were collected and compared with regard to age and gender. Changes in time show that the trend of the increase in incidence of malignant melanoma (MM) is more impressive than that of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC). The age distribution of BCC and SCC confirms the increasing risk with ageing. By contrast, there is a steady decrease over the past decade in the mean age for MM, teenagers and young adults now form an expanding proportion of MM patients. There is an ongoing trend in diagnosing an increased number of skin cancers in our laboratory. This trend is particularly obvious for MM affecting young adults.

Summary statistics and trend analysis of water-quality data at sites in the Gila River basin, New Mexico and Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Baldys, Stanley; Ham, L.K.; Fossum, K.D.

1995-01-01

Summary statistics and temporal trends for 19 water-chemistry constituents and for turbidity were computed for 13 study sites in the Gila River basin, Arizona and New Mexico. A nonparametric technique, the seasonal Kendall tau test for flow-adjusted data, was used to analyze temporal changes in water-chemistry data. For the 19 selected constituents and turbidity, decreasing trends in concentrations outnumbered increasing trends by more than two to one. Decreasing trends in concentrations of constituents were found for 49 data sets at the 13 study sites. Gila River at Calva and Gila River above diversions, at Gillespie Dam (eight each) had the most decreasing trends for individual sites. The largest number of decreasing trends measured for a constituent was six for dissolved lead. The next largest number of decreasing trends for a constituent was for dissolved solids and total manganese (five each). Hardness, dissolved sodium, and dissolved chloride had decreasing trends at four of the study sites. Increasing trends in concen- trations of constituents were found for 24 data sets at the 13 study sites. The largest number of increasing trends measured for a single constituent was for pH (four), dissolved sulfate (three), dissolved chromium (three) and total manganese (three). Increased concentrations of constituents generally were found in three areas in the basin-at Pinal Creek above Inspiration Dam, at sites above reservoirs, and at sites on the main stem of the Gila River from Gillespie Dam to the mouth.

Trends in labour immigration to the Netherlands

OpenAIRE

Alberda, A.P.; Bloemendal, C.; Braams, N.; Fortanier, F.; van Gaalen, R.; Rooijakkers, B.; Smit, R.

2011-01-01

The process of internationalisation is not only reflected in increased international trade and investment flows, but also in the increased movement of people across borders, often to take on jobs abroad (labour migration). Between 2000 and 2008, labour immigration to the Netherlands displayed a v-shaped trend, decreasing to a low of 32 thousand in 2004, and rising to 59 thousand in 2008. This trend mirrors the development of Dutch unemployment rates in this period. Many labour immigrants are ...

Decreasing incidence rates of bacteremia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Stig Lønberg; Pedersen, C; Jensen, T G

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Numerous studies have shown that the incidence rate of bacteremia has been increasing over time. However, few studies have distinguished between community-acquired, healthcare-associated and nosocomial bacteremia. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study among adults with first......-time bacteremia in Funen County, Denmark, during 2000-2008 (N = 7786). We reported mean and annual incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years), overall and by place of acquisition. Trends were estimated using a Poisson regression model. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate was 215.7, including 99.0 for community......-acquired, 50.0 for healthcare-associated and 66.7 for nosocomial bacteremia. During 2000-2008, the overall incidence rate decreased by 23.3% from 254.1 to 198.8 (3.3% annually, p incidence rate of community-acquired bacteremia decreased by 25.6% from 119.0 to 93.8 (3.7% annually, p

In-depth Review of Partnering Research Trends in Construction Journals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bohnstedt, Kristian Ditlev; Rasmussen, Arne P.; Faber, Lene

2017-01-01

Significant literature has been dedicated to research on partnering in construction, and a plethora of underlying theories and industrial practices on partnering application have been reported. The aim is to analyze and summarize the research trend of partnering research from leading construction...... shows that research on development and application of partnering is becoming moderately mature as exemplified by a decreasing amount of published papers after 2007, on the other hand, research on trust; feasibility; advantages; inducements of implementation and barriers to implementation is emerging...

Trends of two decadal precipitation chemistry in a subtropical rainforest in East Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Chung-Te; Wang, Chiao-Ping; Huang, Jr-Chuan; Wang, Lih-Jih; Liu, Chiung-Pin; Lin, Teng-Chiu

2017-12-15

Long-term monitoring of precipitation chemistry provides a great opportunity to examine the evolution of air pollutant emissions and effectiveness of air pollution control measures. We evaluated the characteristics and trends of precipitation chemistry at both annual and seasonal scales based on the records of 1994-2013 at Fushan Experimental Forest (FEF) of northeastern Taiwan. The results showed that 77% of the weekly precipitation had pHprecipitation pH and the difference between [SO 4 2 - +NO 3 - ] and [Ca 2+ +NH 4 + ], not just [SO 4 2 - +NO 3 - ], suggesting that precipitation acidity was not solely determined by acidic pollutants but by the balance between acidic pollutants and base cations. We also found temporal decreases of Ca 2+ and NH 4 + concentrations in precipitation which contributed to the low acid neutralization capacity of precipitation. Annual deposition of NO 3 - and SO 4 2- was 23 and 55kgha -1 yr -1 , which is much higher than most forest sites in the industrialized countries suggesting that acid deposition is still a major environmental issue in Taiwan. Annual deposition of NH 4 + , Ca 2+ and NO 3 - showed significant decreasing trends during the 20-year period, which was mostly due to the decreases in the summer deposition associated with air pollution mitigation strategies. Winter deposition showed no decreasing patterns for the same period. The high contribution to annual acid deposition from autumn-winter and spring rains (50%) associated with northeast monsoon implies that long-range transport of anthropogenic emissions from East Asia played a key role on acid depositions at FEF and possibly many areas in the region. Therefore, intergovernmental cooperation is urgently needed to effectively mitigate the threat of acid deposition in East Asia. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Arctic Climate Variability and Trends from Satellite Observations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuanji Wang

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Arctic climate has been changing rapidly since the 1980s. This work shows distinctly different patterns of change in winter, spring, and summer for cloud fraction and surface temperature. Satellite observations over 1982–2004 have shown that the Arctic has warmed up and become cloudier in spring and summer, but cooled down and become less cloudy in winter. The annual mean surface temperature has increased at a rate of 0.34°C per decade. The decadal rates of cloud fraction trends are −3.4%, 2.3%, and 0.5% in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. Correspondingly, annually averaged surface albedo has decreased at a decadal rate of −3.2%. On the annual average, the trend of cloud forcing at the surface is −2.11 W/m2 per decade, indicating a damping effect on the surface warming by clouds. The decreasing sea ice albedo and surface warming tend to modulate cloud radiative cooling effect in spring and summer. Arctic sea ice has also declined substantially with decadal rates of −8%, −5%, and −15% in sea ice extent, thickness, and volume, respectively. Significant correlations between surface temperature anomalies and climate indices, especially the Arctic Oscillation (AO index, exist over some areas, implying linkages between global climate change and Arctic climate change.

Secular trends in Cherokee cranial morphology: Eastern vs Western bands.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutphin, Rebecca; Ross, Ann H; Jantz, Richard L

2014-01-01

The research objective was to examine if secular trends can be identified for cranial data commissioned by Boas in 1892, specifically for cranial breadth and cranial length of the Eastern and Western band Cherokee who experienced environmental hardships. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the degree of relationship between each of the cranial measures: cranial length, cranial breadth and cephalic index, along with predictor variables (year-of-birth, location, sex, admixture); the model revealed a significant difference for all craniometric variables. Additional regression analysis was performed with smoothing Loess plots to observe cranial length and cranial breadth change over time (year-of-birth) separately for Eastern and Western Cherokee band females and males born between 1783-1874. This revealed the Western and Eastern bands show a decrease in cranial length over time. Eastern band individuals maintain a relatively constant head breadth, while Western Band individuals show a sharp decline beginning around 1860. These findings support negative secular trend occurring for both Cherokee bands where the environment made a detrimental impact; this is especially marked with the Western Cherokee band.

Temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyls, polybrominated diphenyl ethers, and perfluorinated compounds in Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) eggs (1984-2008).

Science.gov (United States)

Jianxian, Sun; Hui, Peng; Jianying, Hu

2015-02-03

Because investigation on the temporal trends of persistent halogenated compounds (PHCs) is necessary to predict their future impacts on the environment and human health and evaluate the effectiveness of regulations on their production and usage, it is of concern to investigate annual temporal trends of PHCs in biota samples. This study examined the temporal trends of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), and perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) in Chinese sturgeon (Acipenser sinensis) eggs over a period of 25 years (1984-2008), and 62 PCBs (19.2-1030 ng/g dw for total PCBs), 16 PBDEs (4.7-572 ng/g dw for total PBDEs), and 14 PFCs (26-46 ng/g dw for total PFCs) were detected. Although a decreasing temporal trend was observed for total PCBs with annual reduction rate of 3.4% (ρ = 0.005), a clear break point was observed around 1991, indicating their continuing emission in the 1980s in China. All major PBDEs showed increasing temporal trends, with annual change rates at 3.5-10.2% over the 25 years, but a sharp decreasing trend was observed after 2006, indicating a rapid response to the banning of PBDE usage in China in 2004. The greatest annual rate of increase was observed for BDE-28 (10.2%) followed by BDE-100 (7.7%), which would be due to metabolism input from higher brominated PBDEs. Significantly increasing temporal trends were observed for all PFCs, and the annual rates of increase were 7.9% and 5.9% for total perfluorinated carboxylic acids and perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), respectively. A peak concentration for PFOS was observed in 1989, which may be related to the import history of PFCs in China. The present study is the first report of systematic temporal trends of PHCs in biota samples from China and shows that regulatory policy is needed to reduce their potential health and ecological risk in China considering the increasing temporal trends of PBDEs and PFCs.

Satellite derived trends in NO2 over the major global hotspot regions during the past decade and their inter-comparison

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghude, Sachin D.; Van der A, R.J.; Beig, G.; Fadnavis, S.; Polade, S.D.

2009-01-01

We assessed satellite derived tropospheric NO 2 distribution on a global scale and identified the major NO 2 hotspot regions. Combined GOME and SCIAMACHY measurements for the period 1996-2006 have been used to compute the trends over these regions. Our analysis shows that tropospheric NO 2 column amounts have increased over the newly and rapidly developing regions like China (11 ± 2.6%/year), south Asia (1.76 ± 1.1%/year), Middle East (2.3 ± 1%/year) and South Africa (2.4 ± 2.2%/year). Tropospheric NO 2 column amounts show some decrease over the eastern US (-2 ± 1.5%/year) and Europe (0.9 ± 2.1%/year). We found that although tropospheric NO 2 column amounts decreased over the major developed regions in the past decade, the present tropospheric NO 2 column amounts over these regions are still significantly higher than those observed over newly and rapidly developing regions (except China). Tropospheric NO 2 column amounts show some decrease over South America and Central Africa, which are major biomass burning regions in the Southern Hemisphere. - Trends in tropospheric column NO 2 over newly developing regions.

Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

2017-04-01

Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those

A snapshot of 3649 Web-based services published between 1994 and 2017 shows a decrease in availability after 2 years.

Science.gov (United States)

Osz, Ágnes; Pongor, Lorinc Sándor; Szirmai, Danuta; Gyorffy, Balázs

2017-12-08

The long-term availability of online Web services is of utmost importance to ensure reproducibility of analytical results. However, because of lack of maintenance following acceptance, many servers become unavailable after a short period of time. Our aim was to monitor the accessibility and the decay rate of published Web services as well as to determine the factors underlying trends changes. We searched PubMed to identify publications containing Web server-related terms published between 1994 and 2017. Automatic and manual screening was used to check the status of each Web service. Kruskall-Wallis, Mann-Whitney and Chi-square tests were used to evaluate various parameters, including availability, accessibility, platform, origin of authors, citation, journal impact factor and publication year. We identified 3649 publications in 375 journals of which 2522 (69%) were currently active. Over 95% of sites were running in the first 2 years, but this rate dropped to 84% in the third year and gradually sank afterwards (P Web services is 10.39 years. Working Web services were published in journals with higher impact factors (P = 4.8e-04). Services published before the year 2000 received minimal attention. The citation of offline services was less than for those online (P = 0.022). The majority of Web services provide analytical tools, and the proportion of databases is slowly decreasing. Conclusions. Almost one-third of Web services published to date went out of service. We recommend continued support of Web-based services to increase the reproducibility of published results. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Trends of tropospheric NO2 over the Yangtze River Delta region and the possible linkage to rapid urbanization

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Mingliang; Zhang, Deying; Liu, Qiyang; Song, Yue; Zhou, Jiayuan; Shi, Runhe; Gao, Wei

2017-09-01

Over the past decade, China has experienced a rapid increase in urbanization. The urban built-up areas (population) of Shanghai increased by 16.1% (22.9%) from 2006 to 2015. This study aims to analyze the variations of tropospheric NO2 over Yangtze River Delta region and the impacts of rapid urbanization during 2006-2015. The results indicate that tropospheric NO2 vertical column density (VCD) of all cities in the study area showed an increasing trend during 2006-2011 whereas a decreasing trend during 2011-2015. Most cities showed a lower tropospheric NO2 VCD value in 2015 compared to that in 2006, except for Changzhou and Nantong. Shanghai and Ningbo are two hotspots where the tropospheric NO2 VCD decreased most significantly, at a rate of 22% and 19%, respectively. This effect could be ascribed to the implementation of harsh emission control policies therein. Similar seasonal variability was observed over all cities, with larger values observed in the summer and smaller values shown in the winter. Further investigations show that the observed increasing trend of tropospheric NO2 during 2006-2011 could be largely explained by rapid urbanization linked to car ownership, GDP, power consumption, population and total industrial output. Such effect was not prominent after 2011, mainly due to the implementation of emission control strategies.

Verification of“Trend-Volatility Model”in Short-Term Forecast of Grain Production Potential

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MI Chang-hong

2016-02-01

Full Text Available The "trend-volatility model" in short-term forecasting of grain production potential was verified and discussed systematically by using the grain production data from 1949 to 2014, in 16 typical counties and 6 typical districts, and 31 provinces, of China. The results showed as follows:(1 Size of forecast error reflected the precision of short-term production potential, the main reason of large prediction error was a great amount of high yield farmlands were occupied in developed areas and a great increase of vegetable and fruit planted that made grain yield decreased in a short time;(2 The micro-trend amendment method was a necessary part of "trend-volatility model", which could involve the short-term factors such as meteorological factors, science and technology input, social factors and other effects, while macro-trend prediction could not. Therefore, The micro-trend amendment method could improve the forecast precision.(3 In terms of actual situation in recent years in China, the more developed the areas was, the bigger the volatility of short-term production potential was; For the short-term production potential, the stage of increasing-decreasing-recovering also existed in developed areas;(4 In the terms of forecast precision of short-terms production potential, the scale of national was higher than the scale of province, the scale of province was higher than the scale of district, the scale of district was higher than the scale of county. And it was large differences in precision between different provinces, different districts and different counties respectively, which was concerned to the complementarity of domestic climate and the ability of the farmland resistance to natural disasters.

Trends in marine fish catches at Pattani Fishery Port (1999-2003

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Wanchamai Karntanut

2006-07-01

Full Text Available This study aims to develop statistical models for forecasting the quantity of the various types of marine fish landed at Pattani Fishery Port, allowing for trend and seasonality, using official data during 1999-2003. The data comprise daily and monthly totals by weight for eight types of fish (mackerel, other food fish, squid, scads, trash fish, shrimp, lobster and crab. The statistical methods are one-way analysis of variance, multiple linear regression and time series forecasting using trend and seasonal models. It is found that mackerel, other food fish and squid catches tend to decrease, whereas the catches of scads tend to increase, and trash fish catches have no detectable trend up or down. Shrimp and lobster tend to decrease exponentially, and the trend of crab catch is constant. This study raises questions about the ecological and economic sustainability of the current fisheries policy in Thailand.

Estimation of Nitrate Trends in the Groundwater of the Zagreb Aquifer

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Zoran Kovač

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Nitrates present one of the main groundwater contaminants in the world and in the Zagreb aquifer. The Zagreb aquifer presents the main source of potable water for the inhabitants of the City of Zagreb and it is protected by the Republic of Croatia. The determination of contaminants trends presents one of the main tools in groundwater body status and risk assessment. In this paper, the use of regression analysis on the aggregated data, together with confidence and prediction intervals, at different observation scales has been evaluated. Nitrate concentrations are generally decreasing in almost all areas, observed at different observation scales. It has been shown that linear regression can be efficiently used in the estimation of nitrates trends. Results showed that the calculation of confidence and prediction intervals can provide more useful conclusions than the calculation of the trend’s statistical significance. Also, the results suggest that confidence and prediction intervals can be used in groundwater body chemical status and risk assessment, respectively. Data smoothing and data aggregation are generally desirable, but have certain limitations. If too much data is aggregated, trend estimation by regression analysis can point to false conclusions. Evaluation of trends at different observational scales can provide more realistic trend estimation, as well as more precise identification of areas where groundwater protection measures should be implemented.

Recent trends in rainfall and temperature over North West India during 1871-2016

Science.gov (United States)

Saxena, Rani; Mathur, Prasoon

2018-03-01

Rainfall and temperature are the most important environmental factors influencing crop growth, development, and yield. The northwestern (NW) part of India is one of the main regions of food grain production of the country. It comprises of six meteorological subdivisions (Haryana, Punjab, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu). In this study, attempts were made to study variability and trends in rainfall and temperature during 30-year climate normal periods (CN) and 10-year decadal excess or deficit rainfall frequency during the historical period from 1871 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rank correlation (Spearman's rho) tests were used to determine significance of trends. Least square linear fitting method was adopted to find out the slopes of the trend lines. The long-term mean annual rainfall over North West India is 587.7 mm (standard deviation of 153.0 mm and coefficient of variation 26.0). There was increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures during post monsoon season in entire study period and current climate normal period (1991-2016) due to which the sowing of rabi season crops may be delayed and there may be germination problem too. There was a non-significant decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season and an increasing trend in rainfall during post monsoon over North West India during entire study period. During current CN5 (1991-2016), all the subdivision (except the Saurashtra region) showed a decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season which is a matter of concern for kharif crops and those rabi crops which are grown as rainfed on conserved soil moisture. The decadal annual and seasonal frequencies of excess and deficit years results revealed that the annual total deficit rainfall years (24) exceeded total excess rainfall years (22) in North West India during the entire study period. While during the current decadal period (2011 to 2016), single year was the excess year and 2 years were

Trends in risk factors and etiology of 606 cases of infective endocarditis over 23 years (1984-2006) in slovakia.

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Hricak, V; Liska, B; Kovackova, J; Mikusova, J; Fischer, V; Kovacik, J; Karvaj, M; Jurco, R; Ondrusova, A; Kalavsky, E; Marks, P; Beno, P; Krcmery, V

2007-04-01

The aim of this study was to assess trends in risk factors, etiology, outcome and treatment strategies for endocarditis over 23 years in Slovakia. A prospective survey of 606 cases of infective endocarditis (IE) was conducted from 1984-2006. Rheumatic fever as well as previous dental surgery showed decreasing trends within the last 23 years. Also embolic complications of IE declined along with increasing rates of surgically treated patients. No significant changes in etiology were detected apart from the fact that culture-negative endocarditis increased from 10.7% to 55.4% between 1998-2001. Surgically treated patients increased from 22.7% (1984-1990) to 50.1% (2002-2006) and mortality dramatically decreased from 26.7% (1984-1990) to 5.3% (2002-2006). Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci were the leading causes (22.4% - 48%) followed by viridans streptococci (12.2%-18.2%) were a relatively stable trend over 23 years of IE in Slovakia.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

Worldwide trends in dietary sugars intake.

Science.gov (United States)

Wittekind, Anna; Walton, Janette

2014-12-01

Estimating trends in dietary intake data is integral to informing national nutrition policy and monitoring progress towards dietary guidelines. Dietary intake of sugars is a controversial public health issue and guidance in relation to recommended intakes is particularly inconsistent. Published data relating to trends in sugars intake are relatively sparse. The purpose of the present review was to collate and review data from national nutrition surveys to examine changes and trends in dietary sugars intake. Only thirteen countries (all in the developed world) appear to report estimates of sugars intake from national nutrition surveys at more than one point in time. Definitions of dietary sugars that were used include 'total sugars', 'non-milk extrinsic sugars', 'added sugars', sucrose' and 'mono- and disaccharides'. This variability in terminology across countries meant that comparisons were limited to within countries. Hence trends in dietary sugars intake were examined by country for the whole population (where data permitted), and for specific or combined age and sex subpopulations. Findings indicate that in the majority of population comparisons, estimated dietary sugars intake is either stable or decreasing in both absolute (g/d) and relative (% energy) terms. An increase in sugars intake was observed in few countries and only in specific subpopulations. In conclusion, the findings from the present review suggest that, in the main, dietary sugars intake are decreasing or stable. A consistent approach to estimation of dietary sugars intake from national nutrition surveys is required if more valid estimates of changes in dietary sugars intakes are required in the future.

Decreased prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia and stabilisation of obesity trends in 5-year-old children: possible effects of changed public health policies.

Science.gov (United States)

Sedej, Katarina; Kotnik, Primož; Avbelj Stefanija, Magdalena; Grošelj, Urh; Širca Čampa, Andreja; Lusa, Lara; Battelino, Tadej; Bratina, Nataša

2014-02-01

Overweight/obesity in children is a worldwide public health problem. Together with hypercholesterolaemia they are associated with early atherosclerotic complications. In this study, we aimed to investigate the anthropometric characteristics and total cholesterol (TC) levels in a population of 5-year-old children, to determine trends in the prevalence of overweight/obesity and hypercholesterolaemia in 5-year-old children over a period of 8 years (2001-2009) and to assess the impact of modified national nutritional guidelines for kindergartens implemented in 2005. Cross-sectional studies of overweight/obesity prevalence in the years 2001, 2003-2005 and 2009, and hypercholesterolaemia in years 2001 and 2009, in 5-year-old children. Altogether, 12 832 (6308 girls/6524 boys) children were included. Overweight/obesity was defined by IOTF criteria. Hypercholesterolaemia was defined by TC level >5 mmol/l. Multivariable logistic regression models were used. NO CORRELATION BETWEEN BMI VALUES AND TC LEVELS WAS FOUND. OVERWEIGHT AND OBESITY PREVALENCE WERE STABILISED FROM 2001 TO 2009 (ODDS RATIO (OR) (95% CI): 1.13 (0.99-1.3) and 1.13 (0.89-1.42) respectively). Girls were more frequently overweight/obese than boys (OR (95% CI): 0.71 (0.65-0.79) and 0.75 (0.64-0.89) respectively). Prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia significantly decreased from 2001 to 2009 (OR (95% CI): 0.47 (0.41-0.55)). It was less frequent in boys than in girls (OR (95% CI): O.7 (0.61-0.8)). This is the first study to describe a negative trend in the prevalence of hypercholesterolaemia in pre-pubertal children. In addition, the prevalence of overweight/obesity in these children has been stabilised. Nationwide changes in public health policies could have influenced these observations.

Climatology and trends in the forcing of the stratospheric zonal-mean flow

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E. Monier

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The momentum budget of the Transformed Eulerian-Mean (TEM equation is calculated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF reanalysis (ERA-40 and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Reanalysis 2 (R-2. This study outlines the considerable contribution of unresolved waves, deduced to be gravity waves, to the forcing of the zonal-mean flow. A trend analysis, from 1980 to 2001, shows that the onset and break down of the Northern Hemisphere (NH stratospheric polar night jet has a tendency to occur later in the season in the more recent years. This temporal shift follows long-term changes in planetary wave activity that are mainly due to synoptic waves, with a lag of one month. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH, the polar vortex shows a tendency to persist further into the SH summertime. This also follows a statistically significant decrease in the intensity of the stationary EP flux divergence over the 1980–2001 period. Ozone depletion is well known for strengthening the polar vortex through the thermal wind balance. However, the results of this work show that the SH polar vortex does not experience any significant long-term changes until the month of December, even though the intensification of the ozone hole occurs mainly between September and November. This study suggests that the decrease in planetary wave activity in November provides an important feedback to the zonal wind as it delays the breakdown of the polar vortex. In addition, the absence of strong eddy feedback before November explains the lack of significant trends in the polar vortex in the SH early spring. A long-term weakening in the Brewer-Dobson (B-D circulation in the polar region is identified in the NH winter and early spring and during the SH late spring and is likely driven by the decrease in planetary wave activity previously mentioned. During the rest of the year, there are large discrepancies in the representation of the B

Temporal trends in human vulnerability to excessive heat

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Sheridan, Scott C.; Allen, Michael J.

2018-04-01

Over recent decades, studies have examined various morbidity and mortality outcomes associated with heat exposure. This review explores the collective knowledge of the temporal trends of heat on human health, with regard to the hypothesis that humans are less vulnerable to heat events presently than in the past. Using Web of Science and Scopus, the authors identified all peer-reviewed articles that contained keywords on human impact (e.g. mortality, morbidity) and meteorological component (e.g. heat, heatwave). After sorting, a total of 71 articles, both case studies and epidemiological studies, contained explicit assessments of temporal trends in human vulnerability, and thus were used in this review. Most of the studies utilized mortality data, focused on the developed world, and showed a general decrease in heat sensitivity. Factors such as the implementation of a heat warning system, increased awareness, and improved quality of life were cited as contributing factors that led to the decreased impact of heat. Despite the overall recent decreases in heat vulnerability, spatial variability was shown, and differences with respect to health outcomes were also discussed. Several papers noted increases in heat’s impact on human health, particularly when unprecedented conditions occurred. Further, many populations, from outdoor workers to rural residents, in addition to the populations in much of the developing world, have been significantly underrepresented in research to date, and temporal changes in their vulnerability should be assessed in future studies. Moreover, continued monitoring and improvement of heat intervention is needed; with projected changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heat events combined with shifts in demographics, heat will remain a major public health issue moving forward.

Twelve-Year Trends of PM10 and Visibility in the Hefei Metropolitan Area of China

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Lin Huang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available China has been experiencing severe air pollution and previous studies have mostly focused on megacities and a few hot spot regions. Hefei, the provincial capital city of Anhui province, has a population of near 5 million in its metropolitan area, but its air quality has not been reported in literature. In this study, daily PM10 and visibility data in 2001–2012 were analyzed to investigate the air quality status as well as the twelve-year pollution trends in Hefei. The results reveal that Hefei has been suffering high PM10 pollution and low visibility during the study period. The annual average PM10 concentrations are 2~3 times of the Chinese Ambient Air Quality Standard. PM10 shows fluctuating variation in 2001–2007 and has a slightly decreasing trend after 2008. The annual average visibility range is generally lower than 7 km and shows a worsening trend from 2001 to 2006 followed by an improving trend from 2007 to 2012. Wind speed, precipitation, and relative humidity have negative effects on PM10 concentrations in Hefei, while temperature could positively or negatively affect PM10. The results provide a general understanding of the status and long-term trends of PM10 pollution and visibility in a typical second-tier city in China.

Magneto-optical extinction trend inversion in ferrofluids

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shulyma, S.I., E-mail: kiw_88@mail.ru; Tanygin, B.M., E-mail: b.m.tanygin@gmail.com; Kovalenko, V.F.; Petrychuk, M.V.

2016-10-15

Effects of pulse magnetic field on the optical transmission properties of thin ferrofluid (FF) layers were experimentally investigated. It was observed that, under an influence of an external uniform magnetic field, pulses applied to the samples surfaces in normal direction decrease the optical transmission with further returning it to its original state, even before the end of the field pulse. The dependencies of the observed effects on the magnetic pulse magnitude and the samples thickness were investigated. The experimental results are explained using FF columnar aggregates growth and lateral coalescence under influence of a magnetic field, leading to a light scattering type Rayleigh-to-Mie transition. Further evolution of this process comes to a geometrical optics scale and respective macroscopic observable opaque FF columnar aggregates emergence. These changes of optical transmission are non-monotonic during the magnetic field pulse duration with minimal value in the case of Mie scattering, which is known as a magneto-optical extinction trend inversion. The residual inversion was detected after the external magnetic field pulse falling edge. Using molecular dynamics simulation, we showed that a homogeneous external magnetic field is enough for the formation of columnar aggregates and their fusion. The results clarify the known Li theory (Li et al., 2004, 2007), implying an inhomogeneous field as a required prerequisite for the magneto-optical extinction trend inversion phenomenon. - Highlights: • Ferrofluid columnar aggregates have been observed in a homogeneous magnetic field. • Magneto-optical extinction trend inversion is related to the Mie light scattering. • Crucial role of columnar aggregates growth and lateral coalescence has been revealed. • Residual extinction trend inversion was observed after the field switch off.

Magneto-optical extinction trend inversion in ferrofluids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shulyma, S.I.; Tanygin, B.M.; Kovalenko, V.F.; Petrychuk, M.V.

2016-01-01

Effects of pulse magnetic field on the optical transmission properties of thin ferrofluid (FF) layers were experimentally investigated. It was observed that, under an influence of an external uniform magnetic field, pulses applied to the samples surfaces in normal direction decrease the optical transmission with further returning it to its original state, even before the end of the field pulse. The dependencies of the observed effects on the magnetic pulse magnitude and the samples thickness were investigated. The experimental results are explained using FF columnar aggregates growth and lateral coalescence under influence of a magnetic field, leading to a light scattering type Rayleigh-to-Mie transition. Further evolution of this process comes to a geometrical optics scale and respective macroscopic observable opaque FF columnar aggregates emergence. These changes of optical transmission are non-monotonic during the magnetic field pulse duration with minimal value in the case of Mie scattering, which is known as a magneto-optical extinction trend inversion. The residual inversion was detected after the external magnetic field pulse falling edge. Using molecular dynamics simulation, we showed that a homogeneous external magnetic field is enough for the formation of columnar aggregates and their fusion. The results clarify the known Li theory (Li et al., 2004, 2007), implying an inhomogeneous field as a required prerequisite for the magneto-optical extinction trend inversion phenomenon. - Highlights: • Ferrofluid columnar aggregates have been observed in a homogeneous magnetic field. • Magneto-optical extinction trend inversion is related to the Mie light scattering. • Crucial role of columnar aggregates growth and lateral coalescence has been revealed. • Residual extinction trend inversion was observed after the field switch off.

Yield trends and yield gap analysis of major crops in the world

OpenAIRE

Hengsdijk, H.; Langeveld, J.W.A.

2009-01-01

This study aims to quantify the gap between current and potential yields of major crops in the world, and the production constraints that contribute to this yield gap. Using an expert-based evaluation of yield gaps and the literature, global and regional yields and yield trends of major crops are quantified, yield gaps evaluated by crop experts, current yield progress by breeding estimated, and different yield projections compared. Results show decreasing yield growth for wheat and rice, but ...

Illegal substance use among Italian high school students: trends over 11 years (1999-2009.

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Sabrina Molinaro

Full Text Available PURPOSE: To monitor changes in habits in drug use among Italian high school students. METHODS: Cross-sectional European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD carried out in Italy annually for 11 years (1999-2009 with representative samples of youth attending high school. The sample size considered ranges from 15,752 to 41,365 students and response rate ranged from 85.5% to 98.6%. Data were analyzed to obtain measures of life-time prevalence (LT, use in the last year (LY, use in the last 30 days (LM, frequent use. Comparisons utilized difference in proportion tests. Tests for linear trends in proportion were performed using the Royston p trend test. RESULTS: When the time-averaged value was considered, cannabis (30% LT was the most, and heroin the least (2% frequently used, with cocaine (5%, hallucinogens (2% and stimulants (2% in between. A clear gender gap is evident for all drugs, more obvious for hallucinogens (average M/F LY prevalence ratio 2, range 1.7-2.4, p<0.05, less for cannabis (average M/F LY prevalence ratio 1.3, range 1.2-1.5, p<0.05. Data shows a change in trend between 2005 and 2008; in 2006 the trend for cannabis use and availability dropped and the price rose, while from 2005 cocaine and stimulant use prevalence showed a substantial increase and the price went down. After 2008 use of all substances seems to have decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Drug use is widespread among students in Italy, with cannabis being the most and heroin the least prevalent. Girls are less vulnerable than boys to illegal drug use. In recent years, a decrease in heroin use is overbalanced by a marked rise in hallucinogen and stimulant use.

Trends in surface-water quality at selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations, in Michigan

Science.gov (United States)

Syed, Atiq U.; Fogarty, Lisa R.

2005-01-01

To demonstrate the value of long-term, water-quality monitoring, the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ), in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), initiated a study to evaluate potential trends in water-quality constituents for selected National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN) stations in Michigan. The goal of this study is to assist the MDEQ in evaluating the effectiveness of water-pollution control efforts and the identification of water-quality concerns. The study included a total of nine NASQAN stations in Michigan. Approximately 28 constituents were analyzed for trend tests. Station selection was based on data availability, land-use characteristics, and station priority for the MDEQ Water Chemistry Monitoring Project. Trend analyses were completed using the uncensored Seasonal Kendall Test in the computer program Estimate Trend (ESTREND), a software program for the detection of trends in water-quality data. The parameters chosen for the trend test had (1) at least a 5-year period of record (2) about 5 percent of the observations censored at a single reporting limit, and (3) 40 percent of the values within the beginning one-fifth and ending one-fifth of the selected period. In this study, a negative trend indicates a decrease in concentration of a particular constituent, which generally means an improvement in water quality; whereas a positive trend means an increase in concentration and possible degradation of water quality. The results of the study show an overall improvement in water quality at the Clinton River at Mount Clemens, Manistee River at Manistee, and Pigeon River near Caseville. The detected trend for these stations show decreases in concentrations of various constituents such as nitrogen compounds, conductance, sulfate, fecal coliform bacteria, and fecal streptococci bacteria. The negative trend may indicate an overall improvement in agricultural practices, municipal and industrial wastewater

Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

2018-04-01

Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets

Science.gov (United States)

Preis, Tobias; Stanley, H. Eugene

For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends ("bubble formation") and decreasing trends ("bubble collapse"), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10- 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks providing 2,592,531 daily closing prices. We ask whether these ubiquitous switching processes have quantifiable features independent of the time horizon studied. We find striking scale-free behavior of the volatility after each switching occurs. We interpret our findings as being consistent with time-dependent collective behavior of financial market participants. We test the possible universality of our result by performing a parallel analysis of fluctuations in transaction volume and time intervals between trades. We show that these financial market switching processes have features similar to those present in phase transitions. We find that the well-known catastrophic bubbles that occur on large time scales - such as the most recent financial crisis - are no outliers but in fact single dramatic representatives caused by the formation of upward and downward trends on time scales varying over nine orders of magnitude from the very large down to the very small.

Divergent mortality trends by ethnicity in Fiji.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Richard; Carter, Karen; Naidu, Shivnay; Linhart, Christine; Azim, Syed; Rao, Chalapati; Lopez, Alan D

2013-12-01

To examine trends in infant mortality rate (IMR), adult mortality and life expectancy (LE) in the two major Fijian ethnic groups since 1975. Estimates of IMR, adult mortality (15-59 years) and LE by ethnicity are calculated from previously unreported Fiji Ministry of Health data and extracted from published sources. Over 1975-2008: IMR decreased from 33 to 20 deaths/1,000 live births in i-Taukei (Fiji Melanesians); and 38 to 18 in Fijians of Indian descent. Increased adult male mortality among i-Taukei and decline among Fijians of Indian descent led to an equal probability of dying in 2007 of 29%; while in female adults the probability trended upwards in i-Taukei to 25%, and declined in Fijians of Indian descent to 17%. Life expectancy in both ethnicities increased until 1985 (to 64 years for males; 68 for females) then forming a plateau in males of both ethnicities, and Fijian females of Indian descent, but declining in i-Taukei females to 66 years in 2007. Despite IMR declines over 1975-2008, LE for i-Taukei and Fijians of Indian descent has not increased since 1985, and has actually decreased in i-Taukei women, consistent with trends in adult mortality (15-59 years). Mortality analyses in Fiji that consider the entire population mask divergent trends in the major ethnic groups. This situation is most likely a consequence of non-communicable disease mortality, requiring further assessment and a strengthened response.

Trend of oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality in Brazil in the period of 2002 to 2013

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Perea, Lillia Magali Estrada; Peres, Marco Aurélio; Boing, Antonio Fernando; Antunes, José Leopoldo Ferreira

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the trend of oral and pharyngeal cancer mortality rates in the period of 2002 to 2013 in Brazil according to sex, anatomical site, and macroregion of the country. METHODS The mortality data were obtained from the Mortality Information System and the population data were obtained from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The trend of the rates standardized by sex and age was calculated using the Prais-Winsten estimation, and we obtained the annual percentage change and the respective 95% confidence intervals, analyzed according to sex, macroregion, and anatomical site. RESULTS The average coefficient of oral cancer mortality was 1.87 per 100,000 inhabitants and it remained stable during the study period. The coefficient of pharyngeal cancer mortality was 2.04 per 100,000 inhabitants and it presented an annual percentage change of -2.6%. Approximately eight in every 10 deaths occurred among men. There was an increase in the rates of oral cancer in the Northeast region (annual percentage change of 6.9%) and a decrease in the Southeast region (annual percentage change of -2.9%). Pharyngeal cancer mortality decreased in the Southeast and South regions with annual percentage change of -4.8% and -5.1% respectively. Cancer mortality for tonsil, other major salivary glands, hypopharynx, and other and unspecified parts of mouth and pharynx showed a decreasing trend while the other sites presented stability. CONCLUSIONS Pharyngeal cancer mortality decreased in the period of 2002 to 2013. Oral cancer increased only in the Northeast region. Mortality for tonsil cancer, other major salivary glands, hypopharynx, and other and ill-defined sites in the lip, oral cavity, and pharynx decreased. PMID:29412371

Prediction of HIV-1 sensitivity to broadly neutralizing antibodies shows a trend towards resistance over time.

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Hake, Anna; Pfeifer, Nico

2017-10-01

Treatment with broadly neutralizing antibodies (bNAbs) has proven effective against HIV-1 infections in humanized mice, non-human primates, and humans. Due to the high mutation rate of HIV-1, resistance testing of the patient's viral strains to the bNAbs is still inevitable. So far, bNAb resistance can only be tested in expensive and time-consuming neutralization experiments. Here, we introduce well-performing computational models that predict the neutralization response of HIV-1 to bNAbs given only the envelope sequence of the virus. Using non-linear support vector machines based on a string kernel, the models learnt even the important binding sites of bNAbs with more complex epitopes, i.e., the CD4 binding site targeting bNAbs, proving thereby the biological relevance of the models. To increase the interpretability of the models, we additionally provide a new kind of motif logo for each query sequence, visualizing those residues of the test sequence that influenced the prediction outcome the most. Moreover, we predicted the neutralization sensitivity of around 34,000 HIV-1 samples from different time points to a broad range of bNAbs, enabling the first analysis of HIV resistance to bNAbs on a global scale. The analysis showed for many of the bNAbs a trend towards antibody resistance over time, which had previously only been discovered for a small non-representative subset of the global HIV-1 population.

Distribution and evolutionary trends of photoprotective isoprenoids (xanthophylls and tocopherols) within the plant kingdom.

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Esteban, Raquel; Olano, José M; Castresana, José; Fernández-Marín, Beatriz; Hernández, Antonio; Becerril, José M; García-Plazaola, José I

2009-04-01

The earliest land photosynthesis would have increased the risk of photo-oxidations and the demand of anti-oxidative protection. In this work, we aimed to determine the evolutionary trends in photoprotection across a wide representation of the plant kingdom and to verify whether the non-ubiquitous lutein-epoxide (Lx) cycle is a polyphyletic or an ancient character. Carotenoids and alpha-tocopherol (alpha-toc) were analysed by HPLC in 266 species. Phylogenetic analyses of the presence of photoprotective compounds and zeaxanthin-epoxidase (ZE) sequences were performed. Violaxanthin-cycle pigments (VAZ) and alpha-toc were taxonomically ubiquitous. Ancient groups showed higher contents of VAZ than vascular plants, while alpha-toc showed the opposite pattern. Lutein-epoxide was present in 45% of the species. It showed a remarkable variation across groups but with a clear increasing trend from algae to basal angiosperms. Lutein-epoxide was also related to woody trait and leaf longevity. No correlation between the presence of Lx and recurrent mutations in ZE sequences, including the duplications, was found. Thus, there is an evolutionary trend to increase the content of alpha-toc and to decrease the total amount of VAZ pigments. Absence of Lx in algae discards an ancestral origin. Present results are also inconsistent with a polyphyletic origin of Lx in angiosperms.

Albedo decreasing trend. White cars proposal and new urban scenarios

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Niccolò Casiddu

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Global warming caused the decrease of the albedo. Emission reduction is the most widely proposed response to this problem. However simple ideas such as cool roofs and cool pavements seem successful remedies to counter the threat. However in Italy another strategy appears more effective. By changing from dark to pastel bright automotive colours a considerable increase of the albedo can be hypothesized: the effect should be from 32% to 50% of the results obtained with an extensive application of the “cool roofs” strategy. Such a proposal involves the creation of new, unexpected cityscapes. The city is a place where the perception of space changes. The car, by definition is an object in motion, but still present, sometimes redundant in the urban landscape. What will be the perceived relationship with buildings, streets, squares where the cars are all white or pastel colour?

Quantification of Impact of Orbital Drift on Inter-Annual Trends in AVHRR NDVI Data

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Jyoteshwar R. Nagol

2014-07-01

Full Text Available The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI time-series data derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR have been extensively used for studying inter-annual dynamics of global and regional vegetation. However, there can be significant uncertainties in the data due to incomplete atmospheric correction and orbital drift of the satellites through their active life. Access to location specific quantification of uncertainty is crucial for appropriate evaluation of the trends and anomalies. This paper provides per pixel quantification of orbital drift related spurious trends in Long Term Data Record (LTDR AVHRR NDVI data product. The magnitude and direction of the spurious trends was estimated by direct comparison with data from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS Aqua instrument, which has stable inter-annual sun-sensor geometry. The maps show presence of both positive as well as negative spurious trends in the data. After application of the BRDF correction, an overall decrease in positive trends and an increase in number of pixels with negative spurious trends were observed. The mean global spurious inter-annual NDVI trend before and after BRDF correction was 0.0016 and −0.0017 respectively. The research presented in this paper gives valuable insight into the magnitude of orbital drift related trends in the AVHRR NDVI data as well as the degree to which it is being rectified by the MODIS BRDF correction algorithm used by the LTDR processing stream.

Trends in prevalence of allergic rhinitis and correlation with pollen counts in Switzerland

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Frei, Thomas; Gassner, Ewald

2008-11-01

In recent decades, a large number of epidemiological studies investigating the change of prevalence of hay fever showed an increase in the occurrence of this disease. However, other studies carried out in the 1990s yielded contradictory results. Many environmental factors have been hypothesized to contribute to the increasing hay fever rate, including both indoor and ambient air pollution, reduced exposure to microbial stimulation and changes in diets. However, the observed increase has not convincingly been explained by any of these factors and there is limited evidence of changes in exposure to these risk factors over time. Additionally, recent studies show that no further increase in asthma, hay fever and atopic sensitisation in adolescents and adults has been observed during the 1990s and the beginning of the new century. As the pattern of pollen counts has changed over the years, partly due to the global warming but also as a consequence of a change in the use of land, the changing prevalence of hay fever might partly be driven by this different pollen exposure. Epidemiological data for hay fever in Switzerland are available from 1926 until 2000 (with large gaps between 1926 and 1958 and 1958 to 1986) whereas pollen data are available from 1969 until the present. This allows an investigation as to whether these data are correlated provided the same time spans are compared. It would also be feasible to correlate the pollen data with meteorological data which, however, is not the subject of our investigation. Our study focuses on analyzing time series of pollen counts and of pollen season lengths in order to identify their trends, and to ascertain whether there is a relationship between these trends and the changes in the hay fever prevalence. It is shown in this paper that the pollen exposure has been decreasing in Basel since the beginning of the 1990s whereas the rate of the hay fever prevalence in Switzerland remained approximately unchanged in this period

Eleven-year trend in acetanilide pesticide degradates in the Iowa River, Iowa.

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Kalkhoff, Stephen J; Vecchia, Aldo V; Capel, Paul D; Meyer, Michael T

2012-01-01

Trends in concentration and loads of acetochlor, alachlor, and metolachlor and their ethanasulfonic (ESA) and oxanilic (OXA) acid degradates were studied from 1996 through 2006 in the main stem of the Iowa River, Iowa and in the South Fork Iowa River, a small tributary near the headwaters of the Iowa River. Concentration trends were determined using the parametric regression model SEAWAVE-Q, which accounts for seasonal and flow-related variability. Daily estimated concentrations generated from the model were used with daily streamflow to calculate daily and yearly loads. Acetochlor, alachlor, metolachlor, and their ESA and OXA degradates were generally present in >50% of the samples collected from both sites throughout the study. Their concentrations generally decreased from 1996 through 2006, although the rate of decrease was slower after 2001. Concentrations of the ESA and OXA degradates decreased from 3 to about 23% yr. The concentration trend was related to the decreasing use of these compounds during the study period. Decreasing concentrations and constant runoff resulted in an average reduction of 10 to >3000 kg per year of alachlor and metolachlor ESA and OXA degradates being transported out of the Iowa River watershed. Transport of acetochlor and metolachlor parent compounds and their degradates from the Iowa River watershed ranged from <1% to about 6% of the annual application. These trends were related to the decreasing use of these compounds during the study period, but the year-to-year variability cannot explain changes in loads based on herbicide use alone. The trends were also affected by the timing and amount of precipitation. As expected, increased amounts of water moving through the watershed moved a greater percentage of the applied herbicides, especially the relatively soluble degradates, from the soils into the rivers through surface runoff, shallow groundwater inflow, and subsurface drainage. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy

Current Status and Trend of Internet and E-Commerce Market in Korea

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

LEE Hongjoo; KIM Jongwoo; PARK Sungjoo

2004-01-01

After the remarkable increase of Internet users and broadband Internet subscribers at the end of the 20th century, the size of Korean Internet and e-commerce market steadily increased but the growth rate has been either stagnant or decreased. Trends of Korean Internet and e-commerce market are summarized in this paper the trends on Internet usage are introduced. Trends of online games, blogs and wireless Internet are introduced. The trends of Korean Internet market may have implications for China and Japan.

Worldwide trend of atmospheric mercury since 1995

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F. Slemr

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Concern about the adverse effects of mercury on human health and ecosystems has led to tightening emission controls since the mid 1980s. But the resulting mercury emissions reductions in many parts of the world are believed to be offset or even surpassed by the increasing emissions in rapidly industrializing countries. Consequently, concentrations of atmospheric mercury are expected to remain roughly constant. Here we show that the worldwide atmospheric mercury concentrations have decreased by about 20 to 38 % since 1996 as indicated by long-term monitoring at stations in the Southern and Northern Hemispheres combined with intermittent measurements of latitudinal distribution over the Atlantic Ocean. The total reduction of the atmospheric mercury burden of this magnitude within 14 years is unusually large among most atmospheric trace gases and is at odds with the current mercury emission inventories with nearly constant anthropogenic emissions over this period. This suggests a major shift in the biogeochemical cycle of mercury including oceans and soil reservoirs. Decreasing reemissions from the legacy of historical mercury emissions are the most likely explanation for this decline since the hypothesis of an accelerated oxidation rate of elemental mercury in the atmosphere is not supported by the observed trends of other trace gases. Acidification of oceans, climate change, excess nutrient input and pollution may also contribute by their impact on the biogeochemistry of ocean and soils. Consequently, models of the atmospheric mercury cycle have to include soil and ocean mercury pools and their dynamics to be able to make projections of future trends.

Investigation of Breakpoint and Trend of Daily Air Temperature Range for Mashhad, Iran

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shideh shams

2017-01-01

same temperatures. Third, a revision of internal consistence was done, verifying that daily Tmax always exceeds daily Tmin. Fourth, the temporal coherency was tested by checking if consecutive temperature records differ by more than 8 degrees. The homogeneity of the series was tested by means of the Standard Normal Homogeneity test, the Buishand range and the Pettitt tests, on yearly, seasonal and monthly time scales. Breakpoint can be detected by means of these methods. In addition, Von Neumann ratio test was used to explore the series’ randomness. Having investigated data’s randomness in this study, series’ trend was determined by the Kendal-Tau test. Furthermore, the slope of the series’ trend was calculated using the Sen’s slope method. Results Discussion: Results indicated a decreasing trend in DTR during last 60 years (1951-2010 in Mashhad climatological station. Moreover, the results revealed that the slope of yearly DTR was decreasing (-0.029 ⁰C per year, which indicates that minimum air temperature values raise more maximum air temperature values. A breakpoint was detected during 1985. During 1951-1985, the average amount of DTR was 14.6⁰C, while this parameter reduced to 12.9⁰C for the period 1985-2010. The Kendall-Tau test was used to obtain the significance of trend during 1951-2010, 1951-1985 and 1985-2010. The results showed that during 1951-2010, DTR significantly reduced at a rate of 0.29oC per decade. However, between 1951 and 1985, DTR trend increased at a rate of 0.61oC per decade, while DTR trend between 1985 and 2010 reduced at a rate of 0.19 ⁰C per decade, which was not significant (P-value=5%. In the seasonal DTR series, the highest trend’s slope was calculated for the summer data (-0.43 ⁰C in a decade, while the lowest one accrued in spring (-0.15⁰C in a decade. From 1951 to 1985, DTR had an increasing trend, due to minimum air temperature’s downward trend. But from the late 1980 to 2010, as it was expected, downward

Time trends in the levels and patterns of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in pine bark, litter, and soil after a forest fire.

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Choi, Sung-Deuk

2014-02-01

Forest fires are known as an important natural source of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), but time trends of PAH levels and patterns in various environmental compartments after forest fires have not been thoroughly studied yet. In this study, 16 US-EPA priority PAHs were analyzed for pine bark, litter, and soil samples collected one, three, five, and seven months after a forest fire in Pohang, South Korea. At the first sampling event, the highest levels of ∑16 PAHs were measured for the three types of samples (pine bark: 5,920 ng/g, litter: 1,540 ng/g, and soil: 133 ng/g). Thereafter, there were apparent decreasing trends in PAH levels; the control samples showed the lowest levels (pine bark: 124 ng/g, litter: 75 ng/g, and soil: 26 ng/g). The levels of PAHs in the litter and soil samples normalized by organic carbon (OC) fractions also showed decreasing trends, indicating a direct influence of the forest fire. Among the 16 target PAHs, naphthalene was a dominant compound for all types of samples. Light PAHs with 2-4 rings significantly contributed to the total concentration, and their contribution decreased in the course of time. Runoff by heavy precipitation, evaporation, and degradation of PAHs in the summer were probably the main reasons for the observed time trends. The results of principal component analysis (PCA) and diagnostic ratio also supported that the forest fire was indeed an important source of PAHs in the study area. © 2013.

Evaluation and adjustment of altimeter measurement and numerical hindcast in wave height trend estimation in China's coastal seas

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shuiqing; Guan, Shoude; Hou, Yijun; Liu, Yahao; Bi, Fan

2018-05-01

A long-term trend of significant wave height (SWH) in China's coastal seas was examined based on three datasets derived from satellite measurements and numerical hindcasts. One set of altimeter data were obtained from the GlobWave, while the other two datasets of numerical hindcasts were obtained from the third-generation wind wave model, WAVEWATCH III, forced by wind fields from the Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) and NCEP's Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The mean and extreme wave trends were estimated for the period 1992-2010 with respect to the annual mean and the 99th-percentile values of SWH, respectively. The altimeter wave trend estimates feature considerable uncertainties owing to the sparse sampling rate. Furthermore, the extreme wave trend tends to be overestimated because of the increasing sampling rate over time. Numerical wave trends strongly depend on the quality of the wind fields, as the CCMP waves significantly overestimate the wave trend, whereas the CFSR waves tend to underestimate the trend. Corresponding adjustments were applied which effectively improved the trend estimates from the altimeter and numerical data. The adjusted results show generally increasing mean wave trends, while the extreme wave trends are more spatially-varied, from decreasing trends prevailing in the South China Sea to significant increasing trends mainly in the East China Sea.

The impact of North Atlantic wind and cyclone trends on European precipitation and significant wave height in the Atlantic.

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Trigo, Ricardo M; Valente, Maria A; Trigo, Isabel F; Miranda, Pedro M A; Ramos, Alexandre M; Paredes, Daniel; García-Herrera, Ricardo

2008-12-01

An analysis of the frequency of cyclones and surface wind velocity for the Euro-Atlantic sector is performed by means of an objective methodology. Monthly and seasonal trends of cyclones and wind speed magnitude are computed and trends between 1960 and 2000 evaluated. Results reveal a significant frequency decrease (increase) in the western Mediterranean (Greenland and Scandinavia), particularly in December, February, and March. Seasonal and monthly analysis of wind magnitude trends shows similar spatial patterns. We show that these changes in the frequency of low-pressure centers and the associated wind patterns are partially responsible for trends in the significant height of waves. Throughout the extended winter months (October-March), regions with positive (negative) wind magnitude trends, of up to 5 cm/s/year, often correspond to regions of positive (negative) significant wave height trends. The cyclone and wind speed trends computed for January-March are well matched by the corresponding trends in significant wave height, with February being the month with the highest trends (negative south of lat 50 degrees N up to -3 cm/year, and positive up to 5 cm/year just north of Scotland). Trends in European precipitation are assessed using the Climatic Research Unit data set. The results of the assessment emphasize the link with the corresponding tendencies of cyclone frequencies. Finally, it is shown that these changes are associated, to a large extent, with the preferred phases of major large-scale atmospheric circulation modes, particularly with the North Atlantic Oscillation, the eastern Atlantic pattern, and the Scandinavian pattern.

Dramatic decreases in runoff and sediment load in the Huangfuchuan Basin of the Middle Yellow River, China: historical records and future projections

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LI, E.; Li, D.; Wang, Y.; Fu, X.

2017-12-01

The Yellow River is well known for its high sediment load and serious water shortage. The long-term averaged sediment load is about 1.6´103 million tons per year, resulting in aggrading and perched lower reaches. In recent years, however, dramatic decreases in runoff and sediment load have been observed. The annual sediment load has been less than 150 million tons in the last ten years. Extrapolation of this trend into the future would motivate substantial change in the management strategies of the Lower Yellow River. To understand the possible trend and its coevolving drivers, we performed a case study of the Huangfuchuang River, which is a tributary to the Middle Yellow River, with a drainage area of 3246 km2 and an annual precipitation of 365 mm. Statistical analysis of historical data from 1960s to 2015 showed a significantly decreasing trend in runoff and sediment load since 1984. As potential drivers, the precipitation does not show an obvious change in annual amount, while the vegetation cover and the number of check dams have been increased gradually as a result of the national Grain for Green project. A simulation with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) reproduced the historical evolution processes, and showed that human activities dominated the reduction in runoff and sediment load, with a contribution of around 80%. We then projected the runoff and sediment load for the next 50 years (2016-2066), considering typical scenarios of climate change and accounting for vegetation cover development subject to climate conditions and storage capacity loss of check dams due to sediment deposition. The differences between the projected trend and the historical record were analyzed, so as to highlight the coevolving processes of climate, vegetation, and check dam retention on a time scale of decades. Keywords: Huangfuchuan River Basin, sediment load, vegetation cover, check dams, annual precipitation, SWAT.

Time trends and changes in the distribution of malaria cases in the Brazilian Amazon Region, 2004-2013

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Isac da SF Lima

Full Text Available Recent efforts to reduce malaria incidence have had some successes. Nevertheless, malaria persists as a significant public health problem in the Brazilian Amazon. The objective of this study was to describe changes in malaria case characteristics and to identify trends in malaria incidence in the Brazilian Amazon. This study used data from the Malaria Epidemiological Surveillance and Case Notification Information System from 2004 to 2013. The annual parasite incidence (API was calculated and joinpoint regression was used to assess the trends in API over time. There was a sharp increase in API in the state of Acre, followed by two periods of decrease. Pará also presented inconsistent decreases over the study period. Amapá, Amazonas, Rondônia, and Roraima showed statistically significant decreases over the period. The sharpest decrease occurred in Rondônia, with a reduction of 21.7% in the average annual percent change (AAPC (AAPC: -21.7%; 95% confidence interval: -25.4%, -17.8%; p < 0.05. This panorama of malaria incidence highlights the importance of integrating evidence-based malaria surveillance and control. Malaria is highly preventable, and eliminating its transmission should be a goal in coming decades.

Decreasing cloud cover drives the recent mass loss on the Greenland Ice Sheet.

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Hofer, Stefan; Tedstone, Andrew J; Fettweis, Xavier; Bamber, Jonathan L

2017-06-01

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s. This has been due to both increased ice discharge into the ocean and melting at the surface, with the latter being the dominant contribution. This change in state has been attributed to rising temperatures and a decrease in surface albedo. We show, using satellite data and climate model output, that the abrupt reduction in surface mass balance since about 1995 can be attributed largely to a coincident trend of decreasing summer cloud cover enhancing the melt-albedo feedback. Satellite observations show that, from 1995 to 2009, summer cloud cover decreased by 0.9 ± 0.3% per year. Model output indicates that the GrIS summer melt increases by 27 ± 13 gigatons (Gt) per percent reduction in summer cloud cover, principally because of the impact of increased shortwave radiation over the low albedo ablation zone. The observed reduction in cloud cover is strongly correlated with a state shift in the North Atlantic Oscillation promoting anticyclonic conditions in summer and suggests that the enhanced surface mass loss from the GrIS is driven by synoptic-scale changes in Arctic-wide atmospheric circulation.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

Global Energy Trends - 2016 edition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2016-01-01

Based on its 2015 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends of the world energy markets. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. Key Points: 2.8%: The weakest economic growth since 2002: If the economic activity of OECD countries improved slightly (USA, EU...), that of non - OECD countries slowed down, particularly in China, and with some even declining (Brazil and Russia). +0.5%: Near stagnation of energy consumption: As with last year, 2015 saw weak growth in energy consumption for G20 countries (10.8 Gtoe, or +0.5%, while the 10-year average exceeds 2%). Within the OECD, consumption declined slightly. In non-OECD countries, the evolution becomes historic with an increase limited to 1.3%, compared to a 10-year average of 5%. Besides the direct impact of the economic downturn mentioned above, this result comes largely from China where the near stagnation of energy consumption confirms a trend beginning in 2014 towards a less energy-intensive economy. 0: Stability of CO_2 emissions - cyclical or structural?: After the surprising slowdown in 2014, 2015 also saw a stable level of CO_2 -energy emissions (27 GtCO_2). A direct result from the stagnation in energy consumption, this figure also results from a slight modification in the power mix, in particular from the decline in coal consumption (China, USA..). -3 %: Decrease in the carbon intensity of the economy: In 2015 we acknowledge a 3% decrease in carbon intensity compared to an historical average of -1.5%/year; this progress comes from a decrease in China (stability of energy consumption and decrease of coal share in the mix) and in the USA (more gas, less coal). A trend still far away from climate change targets set at the COP21: On the climate side, the stagnation

Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

Science.gov (United States)

Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

2018-01-01

Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

Decreasing urinary organophosphate pesticide metabolites among pregnant women and their offspring in Jerusalem: Impact of regulatory restrictions on agricultural organophosphate pesticides use?

Science.gov (United States)

Ein-Mor, Eliana; Ergaz-Shaltiel, Zivanit; Berman, Tamar; Göen, Thomas; Natsheh, Juma; Ben-Chetrit, Avraham; Haimov-Kochman, Ronit; Calderon-Margalit, Ronit

2018-06-01

Maternal urinary levels of dialkyl phosphate (DAP) metabolites of organophosphate pesticides (OP) during pregnancy are associated with adverse outcomes in the offspring. Between 2012 and 2014, eighteen active OP ingredients were restricted or banned in Israel for agricultural use. We aimed to study trends of urinary DAP metabolites among pregnant women and their offspring in the era of the new regulations. Pregnant women were recruited at 11-18 weeks of gestation and provided spot urine samples (n = 273). Soon after birth, neonatal urine samples were collected (n = 107). All urine specimens analyzed for DAP metabolites. Trends in DAP metabolites were tested using Mann-Kendall trend statistic (M-K S) and linear regression models were constructed to estimate the association between calendar period and DAP levels between September 2012 and March 2016. Over the study period, median maternal ∑DAP levels decreased from 248 nmol/L to 148 nmol/L. Time of recruitment was associated with a statistically significant decrease in DAP metabolites, which remained significant after multivariate adjustment. Overall, the results for the analysis of before and after June 2014 showed a significant decrease in ∑DAP of -0.198 log10 nmol/L (95%CI: -0.311,-0.084) which corresponds with a decrease of 36.6% in ∑DAP. A similar trend was found for DAP metabolites in neonatal urine. Compared to other studies, pregnant women in Jerusalem had higher ∑DAP levels, even at the end of the study period. We observed significant reductions in maternal and neonatal DAP urinary levels during the period of 2012-2016. Regulations restricting agricultural use of OP seem to be effective in reducing population exposure to OP, in an era when residential use of OP is banned. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) and their methoxylated derivatives in pike from Swedish waters with emphasis on temporal trends, 1967-2000.

Science.gov (United States)

Kierkegaard, A; Bignert, A; Sellström, U; Olsson, M; Asplund, L; Jansson, B; De Wit, C A

2004-07-01

Temporal trends of five tetra- to hexabromodiphenyl ethers [BDE47, BDE99, BDE100, BDE153 and BDE154) and two methoxy-tetraBDEs [6-methoxy-2,2',4,4'- tetraBDE (6-MeO-BDE47) and 2'-methoxy-2,3',4,5'- tetraBDE (2'-MeO-BDE68)] in pike from Lake Bolmen for the years 1967-2000, are presented. All BDE congeners show increasing trends up to the mid-1980s (Sigma5PBDE from 60 to 1600 pg/g wet weight in 1989, i.e. a more than 25-fold increase), and then decrease or level off. The decreasing trends of PBDEs after the 1980s were considerably slower in the present study than was found in a study of an environmental matrix from the Baltic Proper covering the same time period. This difference suggests local sources near Lake Bolmen. The MeO-BDEs show initially decreasing concentrations, which for 6-MeO-BDE47 continues until the early 1990s. The concentrations of 6-MeO-BDE47 in herring from five locations along the Swedish coast increased from south to north in the Baltic Sea. No correlation between the concentrations of the BDE congeners and the MeO-BDEs was observed, indicating sources other than PBDEs for these compounds. The presence of MeO-BDEs in fish from lakes with different characteristics suggests a natural production not favoured by eutrophication, or dependent on sampling season and geographical location.

Decreased solar radiation and increased temperature combine to facilitate fouling by marine non-indigenous species.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Tae Won; Micheli, Fiorenza

2013-01-01

Studies of the effects of climate changes on marine biofouling have mainly focused on the effects of temperature increase, but a decrease in the level of solar radiation could also influence the establishment and persistence of fouling species. To test if decreased solar radiation and/or increased temperature influenced marine fouling communities, solar radiation, and temperature were manipulated by deploying shading devices in the intertidal zone of a central California estuary. Non-indigenous species (NIS) recruiting to artificial substrata had greater coverage under the shading treatments than under transparent plates, indicating that low radiation facilitates recruitment and growth of NIS. In contrast, the coverage of NIS underneath warmer black plates was higher than that on white plates. Furthermore, spatial comparisons of recruitment showed that NIS had a tendency to grow better in the warmer region of the estuary whereas native species showed the opposing trend. The results suggest that both lower radiation and higher temperature may facilitate the spread of marine NIS.

Decreasing Prevalence of Obesity Among Young Children in Massachusetts From 2004 to 2008

Science.gov (United States)

Gillman, Matthew W.; Rifas-Shiman, Sheryl L.; Sherry, Bettylou; Kleinman, Ken; Taveras, Elsie M.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether the obesity prevalence is increasing, level, or decreasing among young US children (aged children) at a multisite pediatric practice in eastern Massachusetts during 1999–2008. By using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2000 gender-specific growth charts, we defined obesity as weight-for-length ≥95th percentile for children aged children aged 24 to obesity trends in 2 separate periods, 1999–2003 and 2004–2008, adjusting for age group, race/ethnicity, health insurance, and practice site. RESULTS: From 1999 to 2003, the obesity prevalence was fairly stable among both boys and girls. From 2004 to 2008, the obesity prevalence substantially decreased among both boys and girls. The decline in obesity prevalence during 2004–2008 was more pronounced among children insured by non-Medicaid health plans than among those insured by Medicaid. CONCLUSIONS: Among children aged obesity prevalence decreased during 2004–2008, which is in line with national data showing no increase in prevalence during this time period. The smaller decrease among Medicaid-insured children may portend widening of socioeconomic disparities in childhood obesity. PMID:22529276

Vegetation Activity Trend and Its Relationship with Climate Change in the Three Gorges Area, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guifeng Han

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Based on SPOT/VGT NDVI time series images from 1999 to 2009 in the Three Gorges Area (TGA, we detected vegetation activity and trends using two methods, the Mann-Kendall and Slope tests. The relationships between vegetation activity trends and annual average temperature and annual total precipitation were analyzed using observational data in seven typical meteorological stations. Vegetation activity presents a distinctive uptrend during the study period, especially in Fengjie, Yunyang, Wushan, Wuxi, and Badong counties located in the midstream of the Three Gorges Reservoir. However, in the Chongqing major area (CMA and its surrounding areas and Fuling, Yichang, and part of Wanzhou, vegetation activity shows a decreasing trend as a result of urban expansion. The NDVI has two fluctuation troughs in 2004 and 2006. The annual mean temperature presents a slight overall upward trend, but the annual total precipitation does not present a significant trend. And they almost have no significant correlations with the NDVI. Therefore, temperature and precipitation are not major influences on vegetation activity change. Instead, increasing vegetation cover benefits from a number of environment protection policies and management, and ecological construction is a major factor resulting in the upward trend. In addition, resettlement schemes mitigate the impact of human activity on vegetation activity.

Spatial and Temporal Streamflow Trends in Northern Taiwan

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Chen-Feng Yeh

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Streamflow is an important factor in the study of water resource management, floods, and droughts. Dramatic climate change has created extreme rainfall distributions, making the study of streamflow trends and variability even more crucial. In this study, the long-term streamflow data and trends recorded at gauging stations in Northern Taiwan are analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The data used for trend analysis are the average annual streamflow, the average seasonal streamflow, and the high and low flows. The slope trend is calculated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Finally, change point analysis is conducted using the Mann-Whitney-Pettit test and the cumulative deviation test to gain further information about the change points and to understand the changes in streamflow before and after the change points. The average annual streamflow of the 12 gauging stations in the study area is analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results show that of the 12 gauging stations, only the Ximen Bridge Station in the Lanyang River basin show a significant downward streamflow trend. Results of the monthly and seasonal average streamflow analysis show that in the spring, 72.2% of the gauging stations showed upward streamflow trends, most of which were located in the Tamsui River and the Touqian River basins. The high and low flow data analysis shows that the Ximen Bridge Station was the only gauging station to feature a significant downward streamflow trend for both high and low flows. This distribution pattern provides valuable information for regional hydrological studies and water management.

Global patterns and trends in stomach cancer incidence: Age, period and birth cohort analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Ganfeng; Zhang, Yanting; Guo, Pi; Wang, Li; Huang, Yuanwei; Li, Ke

2017-10-01

The cases of stomach cancer (SC) incidence are increasing per year and the SC burden has remained very high in some countries. We aimed to evaluate the global geographical variation in SC incidence and temporal trends from 1978 to 2007, with an emphasis on the effect of birth cohort. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model were applied. From 2003 to 2007, male rate were 1.5- to 3-fold higher than female in all countries. Rates were highest in Eastern Asian and South American countries. Except for Uganda, all countries showed favorable trends. Pronounced cohort-specific increases in risk for recent birth cohorts were seen in Brazil, Colombia, Iceland, New Zealand, Norway, Uganda and US white people for males and in Australia, Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Iceland, India, Malta, New Zealand, Norway, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Uganda, US black and white people for females. The cohort-specific ratio for male significantly decreased in Japan, Malta and Spain for cohorts born since 1950 and in Austria, China, Croatia, Ecuador, Russia, Switzerland and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960 and for female in Japan for cohorts born since 1950 and in Canada, China, Croatia, Latvia, Russia and Thailand for cohorts born since 1960. Disparities in incidence and carcinogenic risk persist worldwide. The favorable trends may be due to changes in environmental exposure and lifestyle, including decreased Helicobacter pylori prevalence, increased intake of fresh fruits and vegetables, the availability of refrigeration and decreased intake of salted and preserved food and smoking prevalence. © 2017 UICC.

De-trending of turbulence measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

2007-01-01

based on time series statistics only. The performance of the proposed de-trending algorithm is assessed using huge number of time series recorded at different types of terrain and orography. The strategy is the following: Based on the available time series information a conventional (linear) time series...... de-trending is performed and subsequently compared with the prediction from the proposed algorithm. The de-trended turbulence intensities are reduced in the range of 3 – 15 % compared to the raw turbulence intensity. The performed analysis shows that the proposed model, based on statistical...... this requires access to the basic time-series. However, including a suitable modelling of the mean wind speed time variation, it is possible to estimate an approximate (linear) trend correction based on statistical data only. This paper presents such an algorithm for de-trending of turbulence standard deviation...

Analysis of European ozone trends in the period 1995-2014

Science.gov (United States)

Yan, Yingying; Pozzer, Andrea; Ojha, Narendra; Lin, Jintai; Lelieveld, Jos

2018-04-01

Surface-based measurements from the EMEP and Airbase networks are used to estimate the changes in surface ozone levels during the 1995-2014 period over Europe. We find significant ozone enhancements (0.20-0.59 µg m-3 yr-1 for the annual means; P-value climate model EMAC, the importance of anthropogenic emissions changes in determining these changes over background sites are investigated. The EMAC model is found to successfully capture the observed temporal variability in mean ozone concentrations, as well as the contrast in the trends of 95th and 5th percentile ozone over Europe. Sensitivity simulations and statistical analysis show that a decrease in European anthropogenic emissions had contrasting effects on surface ozone trends between the 95th and 5th percentile levels and that background ozone levels have been influenced by hemispheric transport, while climate variability generally regulated the inter-annual variations of surface ozone in Europe.

NH AND Mg INDEX TRENDS IN ELLIPTICAL GALAXIES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serven, Jedidiah; Worthey, Guy; Toloba, Elisa; Sanchez-Blazquez, Patricia

2011-01-01

We examine the spectrum in the vicinity of the NH3360 index of Davidge and Clark, which was defined to measure the NH absorption around 3360 A and shows almost no trend with velocity dispersion, unlike other N-sensitive indices, which show a strong trend. Computing the effect of individual elements on the integrated spectrum with synthetic stellar population integrated spectra, we find that, while being well correlated with nitrogen abundance, NH3360 is almost equally well anti-correlated with Mg abundance. This prompts the definition of two new indices, Mg3334, which is mostly sensitive to magnesium, and NH3375, which is mostly sensitive to nitrogen. Rather surprisingly, we find that the new NH3375 index shows a trend versus optical absorption feature indices that is as shallow as the NH3360 index. We hypothesize that the lack of a strong index trend in these near-UV indices is due to the presence of an old metal-poor component of the galactic population. Comparison of observed index trends and those predicted by models shows that a modest fraction of an old, metal-poor stellar population could easily account for the observed flat trend in these near-UV indices while still allowing substantial N abundance increase in the larger galaxies.

Causes and emerging trends of childhood blindness: findings from schools for the blind in Southeast Nigeria.

Science.gov (United States)

Aghaji, Ada; Okoye, Obiekwe; Bowman, Richard

2015-06-01

To ascertain the causes severe visual impairment and blindness (SVI/BL) in schools for the blind in southeast Nigeria and to evaluate temporal trends. All children who developed blindness at schools for the blind in southeast Nigeria were examined. All the data were recorded on a WHO/Prevention of Blindness (WHO/PBL) form entered into a Microsoft Access database and transferred to STATA V.12.1 for analysis. To estimate temporal trends in causes of blindness, older (>15 years) children were compared with younger (≤15 years) children. 124 children were identified with SVI/BL. The most common anatomical site of blindness was the lens (33.9%). Overall, avoidable blindness accounted for 73.4% of all blindness. Exploring trends in SVI/BL between children ≤15 years of age and those >15 years old, this study shows a reduction in avoidable blindness but an increase in cortical visual impairment in the younger age group. The results from this study show a statistically significant decrease in avoidable blindness in children ≤15 years old. Corneal blindness appears to be decreasing but cortical visual impairment seems to be emerging in the younger age group. Appropriate strategies for the prevention of avoidable childhood blindness in Nigeria need to be developed and implemented. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Causes and consequences of decreasing atmospheric organic aerosol in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Ridley, D. A.; Heald, C. L.; Ridley, K. J.; Kroll, J. H.

2018-01-01

Exposure to atmospheric particulate matter (PM) exacerbates respiratory and cardiovascular conditions and is a leading source of premature mortality globally. Organic aerosol contributes a significant fraction of PM in the United States. Here, using surface observations between 1990 and 2012, we show that organic carbon has declined dramatically across the entire United States by 25–50%; accounting for more than 30% of the US-wide decline in PM. The decline is in contrast with the increasing organic aerosol due to wildfires and no clear trend in biogenic emissions. By developing a carbonaceous emissions database for the United States, we show that at least two-thirds of the decline in organic aerosol can be explained by changes in anthropogenic emissions, primarily from vehicle emissions and residential fuel burning. We estimate that the decrease in anthropogenic organic aerosol is responsible for averting 180,000 (117,000–389,000) premature deaths between 1990 and 2012. The unexpected decrease in organic aerosol, likely a consequence of the implementation of Clean Air Act Amendments, results in 84,000 (30,000–164,000) more lives saved than anticipated by the EPA between 2000 and 2010.

Long term precipitation trends and variability within the Mediterranean region

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C. M. Philandras

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In this study, the trends and variability of annual precipitation totals and annual rain days over land within the Mediterranean region are analyzed. Long term ground-based observations concerning, on one hand, monthly precipitation totals (1900–2010 and rain days (1965–2010 from 40 meteorological stations within the Mediterranean region were obtained from the Hellenic National Meteorological Service and the World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme (WCDMP of the World Meteorological Organization. On the other hand, high spatial resolution (0.5° × 0.5° gridded monthly data CRU TS 3.1 were acquired from the Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, for the period 1901–2009. The two datasets were compared by means of trends and variability, while the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO in the Mediterranean precipitation was examined. In the process, the climatic changes in the precipitation regime between the period 1961–1990 (reference period and the period 2071–2100 (future climate were presented using climate model simulations (RACMO2.1/KNMI. The future climate projections were based on SRES A1B.

The findings of the analysis showed that statistically significant (95% confidence level negative trends of the annual precipitation totals exist in the majority of Mediterranean regions during the period 1901–2009, with an exception of northern Africa, southern Italy and western Iberian peninsula, where slight positive trends (not statistically significant at 95% CL appear. Concerning the annual number of rain days, a pronounced decrease of 20 %, statistically significant (95% confidence level, appears in representative meteorological stations of east Mediterranean, while the trends are insignificant for west and central Mediterranean. Additionally, NAO index was found to be anticorrelated with the precipitation totals and the number of rain days mainly in Spain, southern France, Italy and Greece. These

Trends in Business Investment

OpenAIRE

Lydon, Reamonn; Scally, John

2014-01-01

This article examines trends in business investment in Ireland. Consistent with the international evidence on investment cycles, we show that business investment in Ireland exhibits large cyclical movements around a long-run trend relative to GDP. Changes in business investment broadly coincide with the overall business cycle, although swings in investment tend to be far greater, with extended periods of both over- and under-investment relative to GDP. The sharp fall in business investment si...

Divergent estrogen receptor-positive and -negative breast cancer trends and etiologic heterogeneity in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Anderson, William F; Rosenberg, Philip S; Petito, Lucia

2013-01-01

-period-cohort models to estimate age-specific EAPCs, cohort rate ratios and projections for future time periods (2011-2018). In Denmark, the overall rate of ER-positive cancers rose between 1993 and 2010 by 3.0% per year (95% CI: 2.8-3.3% per year), whereas the overall rate of ER-negative cancers fell by 2.1% per year...... (95% CI: -2.5 to -1.6% per year). The ER-positive rate increased fastest among postmenopausal women and the ER-negative rate decreased fastest among premenopausal women, reflecting that cohorts born after 1944 were at relatively higher risk of ER-positive tumors and lower risk of ER-negative tumors......Long-term breast cancer trends in incidence in the United States (US) show rising estrogen receptor (ER)-positive rates and falling ER-negative rates. We hypothesized that these divergent trends reflect etiologic heterogeneity and that comparable trends should be observed in other countries...

Random forest meteorological normalisation models for Swiss PM10 trend analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Grange, Stuart K.; Carslaw, David C.; Lewis, Alastair C.; Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph

2018-05-01

Meteorological normalisation is a technique which accounts for changes in meteorology over time in an air quality time series. Controlling for such changes helps support robust trend analysis because there is more certainty that the observed trends are due to changes in emissions or chemistry, not changes in meteorology. Predictive random forest models (RF; a decision tree machine learning technique) were grown for 31 air quality monitoring sites in Switzerland using surface meteorological, synoptic scale, boundary layer height, and time variables to explain daily PM10 concentrations. The RF models were used to calculate meteorologically normalised trends which were formally tested and evaluated using the Theil-Sen estimator. Between 1997 and 2016, significantly decreasing normalised PM10 trends ranged between -0.09 and -1.16 µg m-3 yr-1 with urban traffic sites experiencing the greatest mean decrease in PM10 concentrations at -0.77 µg m-3 yr-1. Similar magnitudes have been reported for normalised PM10 trends for earlier time periods in Switzerland which indicates PM10 concentrations are continuing to decrease at similar rates as in the past. The ability for RF models to be interpreted was leveraged using partial dependence plots to explain the observed trends and relevant physical and chemical processes influencing PM10 concentrations. Notably, two regimes were suggested by the models which cause elevated PM10 concentrations in Switzerland: one related to poor dispersion conditions and a second resulting from high rates of secondary PM generation in deep, photochemically active boundary layers. The RF meteorological normalisation process was found to be robust, user friendly and simple to implement, and readily interpretable which suggests the technique could be useful in many air quality exploratory data analysis situations.

Decreased surface albedo driven by denser vegetation on the Tibetan Plateau

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tian, Li; Zhang, Yangjian; Zhu, Juntao

2014-01-01

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) has fundamental ecological and environmental significance to China and Asia through its influence on regional and continental climates. In recent years, climate warming has caused unprecedented changes to land surface processes on the TP, which would unavoidably undermine the ecological and environmental functions of the TP. Among the numerous land surface processes potentially impacted by climate warming, the effect of vegetation greenness on surface energy balance is one of the most critical, but has been long ignored. In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal patterns of land surface albedo (LSA) on the TP and evaluated the vegetation greenness in relation to patterns of LSA. We found that LSA has been decreasing in most of the vegetated grasslands on the TP from 2000 to 2013, as compared to a flat trend for desert area. The regions where LSA has been decreasing were spatially correlated to areas of increased vegetation greenness. Along rising altitude, LSA decreasing rate exhibited an overall decreasing trend. Across the TP, elevated vegetation greenness in grasslands acted as a primary factor pulling down LSA. The driving effects of vegetation greenness on LSA vary with grassland types, as revealed by a more significant relationship between vegetation greenness and LSA for the sparsely vegetated zone (i.e. steppe) than the more densely vegetated zone (i.e. meadow). Furthermore, the driving effect of vegetation greenness on LSA exhibited an obvious dependence on altitude as effects with rising altitude were relatively strong up to 3000 m, then weakened from 3500 m to 5000 m, and then the effects again increased from 5000 to 6000 m. The growing season LSA trend revealed in this study emphasizes the need to give greater attention to the growing season LSA flux in future surface energy balance studies. (letter)

Mortality trends among Japanese dialysis patients, 1988-2013: a joinpoint regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wakasugi, Minako; Kazama, Junichiro James; Narita, Ichiei

2016-09-01

Evaluation of mortality trends in dialysis patients is important for improving their prognoses. The present study aimed to examine temporal trends in deaths (all-cause, cardiovascular, noncardiovascular and the five leading causes) among Japanese dialysis patients. Mortality data were extracted from the Japanese Society of Dialysis Therapy registry. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated by direct standardization against the 2013 dialysis population. The average annual percentage of change (APC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed for trends using joinpoint regression analysis. A total of 469 324 deaths occurred, of which 25.9% were from cardiac failure, 17.5% from infectious disease, 10.2% from cerebrovascular disorders, 8.6% from malignant tumors and 5.6% from cardiac infarction. The joinpoint trend for all-cause mortality decreased significantly, by -3.7% (95% CI -4.2 to -3.2) per year from 1988 through 2000, then decreased more gradually, by -1.4% (95% CI -1.7 to -1.2) per year during 2000-13. The improved mortality rates were mainly due to decreased deaths from cardiovascular disease, with mortality rates due to noncardiovascular disease outnumbering those of cardiovascular disease in the last decade. Among the top five causes of death, cardiac failure has shown a marked decrease in mortality rate. However, the rates due to infectious disease have remained stable during the study period [APC 0.1 (95% CI -0.2-0.3)]. Significant progress has been made, particularly with regard to the decrease in age-standardized mortality rates. The risk of cardiovascular death has decreased, while the risk of death from infection has remained unchanged for 25 years. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Secular trends in salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults, 1997-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Lianlong; Li, Suyun; Zhao, Jinshan; Zhang, Junli; Wang, Liansen; Wang, Kebo

2018-03-01

Salt and soy sauce are the main ways of sodium intake in Chinese dietary. In this study, we used the data of the China Health and Nutrition Surveys to describe the secular trends of salt and soy sauce intake among Chinese adults from 1997 to 2011. Trends were tested by multiple linear regression models. During the past 14 years, the consumption of sodium, salt and soy sauce intake values decreased significantly across the six study periods (p sauce intake values decreased by 9.0 g/d among men and 7.3 g/d among women. Similar significant trends were observed in all age groups, activity levels and regions (p < .0001).

Gender Differences Time Trends for Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components among Tehranian Children and Adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maryam Barzin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Aims. To investigate the trend of metabolic syndrome and its components in Tehran children and adolescents during a median followup of 6.6 years. Methods. Data from 1999–2001 (phase I, 2002–2005 (phase II, and 2006–2008 (phase III of the Tehran, Lipid and Glucose Study were analyzed (=5439; age 6–18 years for the trend of metabolic syndrome (MetS and its components. General estimation equation (GEE models were used to analyze this correlated data. Results. The crude prevalence of MetS for boys at baseline was 13.2%, which increased to 16.4% in the third phase. In girls, the prevalence of Mets decreased from 11.8% at baseline to 6% during followup. The odd ratios (OR of obesity over the whole study period were raised in both sexes. The OR of abdominal obesity increased significantly in boys, but no change was observed in girls. No significant OR was observed in boys, while OR for MetS was shown to have a decreasing trend in girls during the followup. In the three time points, the ORs of MetS decreased significantly in girls but no significant difference was observed in boys. Conclusion. Inspite of increasing trend for obesity in both sexes, the trend of MetS decreased in girls and was relatively stable in boys, in Tehranian children, and adolescents.

Enhanced MODIS Atmospheric Total Water Vapour Content Trends in Response to Arctic Amplification

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Dunya Alraddawi

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In order to assess the strength of the water vapour feedback within Arctic climate change, 15 years of the total column-integrated density of water vapour (TCWV from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS are analysed. Arctic TCWV distribution, trends, and anomalies for the 2001–2015 period, broken down into seasons and months, are analysed. Enhanced local spring TCWV trends above the terrestrial Arctic regions are discussed in relation to land snow cover and vegetation changes. Upward TCWV trends above the oceanic areas are discussed in lien with sea ice extent and sea surface temperature changes. Increased winter TCWV (up to 40% south of the Svalbard archipelago are observed; these trends are probably driven by a local warming and sea ice extent decline. Similarly, the Barents/Kara regions underwent wet trends (up to 40%, also associated with winter/fall local sea ice loss. Positive late summer TCWV trends above the western Greenland and Beaufort seas (about 20% result from enhanced upper ocean warming and thereby a local coastal decline in ice extent. The Mackenzie and Siberia enhanced TCWV trends (about 25% during spring are found to be associated with coincident decreased snow cover and increased vegetation, as a result of the earlier melt onset. Results show drier summers in the Eurasia and western Alaska regions, thought to be affected by changes in albedo from changing vegetation. Other TCWV anomalies are also presented and discussed in relation to the dramatic decline in sea ice extent and the exceptional rise in sea surface temperature.

International trends in alcohol and drug use among vehicle drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Christophersen, A S; Mørland, J; Stewart, K; Gjerde, H

2016-01-01

Trends in the use of alcohol and drugs among motor vehicle drivers in Australia, Brazil, Norway, Spain, and the United States have been reviewed. Laws, regulations, enforcement, and studies on alcohol and drugs in biological samples from motor vehicle drivers in general road traffic and fatal road traffic crashes (RTCs) are discussed. Roadside surveys showed a reduction of drunk driving over time in the studied countries; however, the pattern varied within and between different countries. The reduction of alcohol use may be related to changes in road traffic laws, public information campaigns, and enforcement, including implementation of random breath testing or sobriety checkpoints. For non-alcohol drugs, the trend in general road traffic is an increase in use. However, drugs were not included in older studies; it is therefore impossible to assess the trends over longer time periods. Data from the studied countries, except Brazil, have shown a significant decrease in fatal RTCs per 100,000 inhabitants over the last decades; from 18.6 to 4.9 in Australia, 14.5 to 2.9 in Norway, 11.1 to 3.6 in Spain, and 19.3 to 10.3 in the United States. The number of alcohol-related fatal RTCs also decreased during the same time period. The proportion of fatal RTCs related to non-alcohol drugs increased, particularly for cannabis and stimulants. A general challenge when comparing alcohol and drug findings in biological samples from several countries is connected to differences in study design, particularly the time period for performing roadside surveys, biological matrix types, drugs included in the analytical program, and the cutoff limits used for evaluation of results. For RTC fatalities, the cases included are based on the police requests for legal autopsy or drug testing, which may introduce a significant selection bias. General comparisons between high-income countries and low- and middle-income countries as well as a discussion of possible future trends are included

Macro-indicators of citation impacts of six prolific countries: InCites data and the statistical significance of trends.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lutz Bornmann

Full Text Available Using the InCites tool of Thomson Reuters, this study compares normalized citation impact values calculated for China, Japan, France, Germany, United States, and the UK throughout the time period from 1981 to 2010. InCites offers a unique opportunity to study the normalized citation impacts of countries using (i a long publication window (1981 to 2010, (ii a differentiation in (broad or more narrow subject areas, and (iii allowing for the use of statistical procedures in order to obtain an insightful investigation of national citation trends across the years. Using four broad categories, our results show significantly increasing trends in citation impact values for France, the UK, and especially Germany across the last thirty years in all areas. The citation impact of papers from China is still at a relatively low level (mostly below the world average, but the country follows an increasing trend line. The USA exhibits a stable pattern of high citation impact values across the years. With small impact differences between the publication years, the US trend is increasing in engineering and technology but decreasing in medical and health sciences as well as in agricultural sciences. Similar to the USA, Japan follows increasing as well as decreasing trends in different subject areas, but the variability across the years is small. In most of the years, papers from Japan perform below or approximately at the world average in each subject area.

Std trends in chengalpattu hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Krishnamurthy V

1996-01-01

Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs at Chengalpattu during 1988-1994. Of the 4549 patients who attended the clinic 3621 (79.6% were males and 928 (20.4% were females. The commonest STD was Chancroid (24.4% in men and Syphillis (29% in women. Balanoposthitis (11.4% ranked third among STDs in males. Though the STD attendance showed a declining trend, most diseases showed a constant distribution. The percentage composition of secondary and latent syphillis, Genital Warts, Genital Herpes and the Non-Venereal group showed an increased composition in recent years. Primary syphillis in females showed a definite declining trend. The HIV sero-positive detection rate was 2.06%. Of the 1116 patients screened for HIV antibody, 23 patients were detected sero-positive. Time Series Regression Analysis was used to predict the number of patients who would attend the STD clinic with various STDs in 1995 and 1996 to help in the understanding of the disease load and pattern in future, in resources management and in developing and evaluating preventive measures.

Botulinum Toxin Dosing Trends in Spasmodic Dysphonia Over a 20-year Period.

Science.gov (United States)

Namin, Arya W; Christopher, Kara M; Eisenbeis, John F

2017-01-01

The study aims to (1) identify the botulinum toxin (BTX) dosing trend in a cohort of patients who received at least 20 injections for the treatment of adductor spasmodic dysphonia (ADSD), (2) describe two distinct BTX dosing trends in treating ADSD (a "classic" dosing trend that initially decreases before stabilizing, and a "fluctuating" dosing trend), and (3) determine if patients with the "classic" dosing trend differed in age or in dosing intervals from those with the "fluctuating" dosing trend. This is a retrospective case series. Of 149 patients who received a total of 2484 BTX injections for the treatment of spasmodic dysphonia in 1993-2013, 49 patients received at least 20 injections. The BTX dose and the interval between doses were recorded. The mean dose of injections 1-20 was determined. The age at initial injection, initial dose, and interval in days between treatments were compared for the "fluctuating" and "classic" groups. The cohort exhibits a significant decrease in dose during the first 10-15 injections. The "fluctuating" group had a significantly shorter interval between injections (mean interval = 97.09 days, SD = 29.41; mean interval = 136.90 days, SD = 43.76, P = 0.002). The mean age at initial dose was not significantly different between the "classic" and "fluctuating" groups. The average BTX dose of patients with ADSD who receive long-term injections significantly decreases during the initial 10-15 injections before stabilizing. Patients who exhibit the "fluctuating" dosing pattern have a significantly shorter interval between injections than those with the "classic" dosing pattern. Copyright © 2017 The Voice Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Bladder cancer mortality trends and patterns in Córdoba, Argentina (1986-2006).

Science.gov (United States)

Pou, Sonia Alejandra; Osella, Alberto Ruben; Diaz, Maria Del Pilar

2011-03-01

Bladder cancer is common worldwide and the fourth most commonly diagnosed malignancy in men in Argentina. To describe bladder cancer mortality trends in Córdoba (1986-2006), considering the effect of age, period, and cohort, and to estimate the effect of arsenic exposure on bladder cancer, and its interaction with sex, while controlling by smoking habits and space and time variation of the rates. A joinpoint regression was performed to compute the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) of the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) in an adult population from Córdoba, Argentina. A Poisson model was fitted to estimate the effect of age, period, and cohort. The influence of gender, tobacco smoking (using lung cancer ASMR as surrogate), and arsenic in drinking water was examined using a hierarchical model. A favorable trend (1986-2006) in bladder cancer ASMR in both sexes was found: EAPC of -2.54 in men and -1.69 in women. There was a decreasing trend in relative risk (RR) for cohorts born in 1931 or after. The multilevel model showed an increasing risk for each increase in lung cancer ASMR unit (RR = 1.001) and a biological interaction between sex and arsenic exposure. RR was higher among men exposed to increasing As-exposure categories (RR male low exposure 3.14, RR male intermediate exposure 4.03, RR male high exposure 4.71 versus female low exposure). A non-random space-time distribution of the rates was observed. There has been a decreasing trend in ASMR for bladder cancer in Córdoba. This study confirms that bladder cancer is associated with age, gender, smoking habit, and exposure to arsenic. Moreover, an effect measure modification between exposure to arsenic and sex was found.

Detection and attribution of nitrogen runoff trend in China's croplands.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Xikang; Zhan, Xiaoying; Zhou, Feng; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Gu, Baojing; Reis, Stefan; Wu, Yali; Liu, Hongbin; Piao, Shilong; Tang, Yanhong

2018-03-01

Reliable detection and attribution of changes in nitrogen (N) runoff from croplands are essential for designing efficient, sustainable N management strategies for future. Despite the recognition that excess N runoff poses a risk of aquatic eutrophication, large-scale, spatially detailed N runoff trends and their drivers remain poorly understood in China. Based on data comprising 535 site-years from 100 sites across China's croplands, we developed a data-driven upscaling model and a new simplified attribution approach to detect and attribute N runoff trends during the period of 1990-2012. Our results show that N runoff has increased by 46% for rice paddy fields and 31% for upland areas since 1990. However, we acknowledge that the upscaling model is subject to large uncertainties (20% and 40% as coefficient of variation of N runoff, respectively). At national scale, increased fertilizer application was identified as the most likely driver of the N runoff trend, while decreased irrigation levels offset to some extent the impact of fertilization increases. In southern China, the increasing trend of upland N runoff can be attributed to the growth in N runoff rates. Our results suggested that increased SOM led to the N runoff rate growth for uplands, but led to a decline for rice paddy fields. In combination, these results imply that improving management approaches for both N fertilizer use and irrigation is urgently required for mitigating agricultural N runoff in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in Overweight and Obesity in Czech Schoolchildren from 1998 to 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamřík, Zdeněk; Sigmundová, Dagmar; Pavelka, Jan; Kalman, Michal; Sigmund, Erik

2017-07-01

Overweight and obesity in adolescents is associated with many health risks and considerable direct and indirect healthcare costs. The purpose of this study is to examine trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 11-, 13- and 15-year-old adolescents in the Czech Republic from 1998 to 2014. Data from five self-reported survey rounds (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, and 2014) of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children Study (HBSC) were used to assess trends in overweight and obesity among Czech adolescents. The total sample consisted of 19,103 adolescents (51.2% girls). A logistic regression analysis was used to assess trends in different age and gender categories. From 1998 to 2014 a significant increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity was observed among boys in all age categories (11 years old 22.2% 1998 - 28.3% 2014 ; 13 years old 17.9% 1998 - 26.7% 2014 ; 15 years old 9.8% 1998 - 20.8% 2014 ) and among 15-year-old girls (6.0% 1998 - 10.9% 2014 ). None of the age and gender categories showed an overall decrease over the 16-year period. In boys, the prevalence of overweight was significantly higher with steeper negative trends compared with girls. However, stabilization in overweight rates was observed between 2010 and 2014 in all age and gender groups. Nationally representative self-reported data show a significant increase in overweight (including obesity) prevalence among children from 1998 to 2014 in the Czech Republic. The results also suggest stabilization in overweight prevalence between 2010 and 2014. Continuing research is needed to determine future trends while interventions aimed at reducing overweight and obesity in children should be implemented on different levels of public policy. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Assessment of short- and long-term memory in trends of major climatic variables over Iran: 1966-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Mianabadi, Ameneh; Shirazi, Pooya; Ghahraman, Bijan; Coenders-Gerrits, A. M. J.; Alizadeh, Amin; Davary, Kamran

2018-02-01

In arid and semi-arid regions, water scarcity is the crucial issue for crop production. Identifying the spatial and temporal trends in aridity, especially during the crop-growing season, is important for farmers to manage their agricultural practices. This will become especially relevant when considering climate change projections. To reliably determine the actual trends, the influence of short- and long-term memory should be removed from the trend analysis. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of short- and long-term memory on estimates of trends in two aridity indicators—the inverted De Martonne (ϕ IDM ) and Budyko (ϕ B ) indices. The analysis is done using precipitation and temperature data over Iran for a 50-year period (1966-2015) at three temporal scales: annual, wheat-growing season (October-June), and maize-growing season (May-November). For this purpose, the original and the modified Mann-Kendall tests (i.e., modified by three methods of trend free pre-whitening (TFPT), effective sample size (ESS), and long-term persistence (LTP)) are used to investigate the temporal trends in aridity indices, precipitation, and temperature by taking into account the effect of short- and long-term memory. Precipitation and temperature data were provided by the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO). The temporal trend analysis showed that aridity increased from 1966 to 2015 at the annual and wheat-growing season scales, which is due to a decreasing trend in precipitation and an increasing trend in mean temperature at these two timescales. The trend in aridity indices was decreasing in the maize-growing season, since precipitation has an increasing trend for most parts of Iran in that season. The increasing trend in aridity indices is significant in Western Iran, which can be related to the significantly more negative trend in precipitation in the West. This increasing trend in aridity could result in an increasing crop water

Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Hirdman

2010-10-01

Full Text Available As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport and building on previous work (Hirdman et al., 2010, this paper studies the long-term trends of both atmospheric transport as well as equivalent black carbon (EBC and sulphate for the three Arctic stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin. We find a general downward trend in the measured EBC concentrations at all three stations, with a decrease of −2.1±0.4 ng m⁻³ yr⁻¹ (for the years 1989–2008 and −1.4±0.8 ng m⁻³ yr⁻¹ (2002–2009 at Alert and Zeppelin respectively. The decrease at Barrow is, however, not statistically significant. The measured sulphate concentrations show a decreasing trend at Alert and Zeppelin of −15±3 ng m⁻³ yr⁻¹ (1985–2006 and −1.3±1.2 ng m⁻³ yr⁻¹ (1990–2008 respectively, while there is no trend detectable at Barrow.

To reveal the contribution of different source regions on these trends, we used a cluster analysis of the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART run backward in time from the measurement stations. We have investigated to what extent variations in the atmospheric circulation, expressed as variations in the frequencies of the transport from four source regions with different emission rates, can explain the long-term trends in EBC and sulphate measured at these stations. We find that the long-term trend in the atmospheric circulation can only explain a minor fraction of the overall downward trend seen in the measurements of EBC (0.3–7.2% and sulphate (0.3–5.3% at the Arctic stations. The changes in emissions are dominant in explaining the trends. We find that the highest EBC and sulphate concentrations are associated with transport from Northern Eurasia and decreasing emissions in this region drive the

Long-term atmospheric visibility trend in Southeast China, 1973-2010

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Deng, Junjun; Du, Ke; Wang, Kai; Yuan, Chung-Shin; Zhao, Juanjuan

2012-11-01

Particulate matter (PM) pollution in Southeast China has been worsening because of the rapid industrial development and urbanization, which have significant negative effects on atmospheric visibility. Characterization of the trend in atmospheric visibility is important for evaluating the impact of PM pollution on the impairment of visual air quality in urban and rural areas. Long-term trend in atmospheric visibility in Southeast China was analyzed for the period of 1973-2010 based on the meteorological data from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) database using four statistical methods: annual mean visibility, percentages of “very good” visibility and “bad” visibility, ridit analysis, and cumulative percentiles. The relationship of atmospheric extinction with Air Pollution Index (API) was studied. In addition, the effects of recent environment policies on visibility were studied. The results showed that the visibility had decreased in 94% stations of this region and prefecture stations had the highest decreasing trend of -3.1 km/decade during the entire period. The average visibility of all the 17 stations (i.e., region-average) declined at a rate of -2.0 km/decade, with a 38-year average of 18.1 km. Decrease in the percentage of “very good” visibility and increase in the percentage of “bad” visibility existed in 14 and 16 stations, respectively. Region-average percentage of “bad” visibility was in the range of 2.2-21.5%, with an increasing rate of 5.0% per decade, and that of “very good” visibility was 24.4-71.8%, with a decreasing rate of -10.7% per decade. During the entire period, county and prefecture stations had similar changing patterns and trends in visibility, while town stations had the least worsening trends. Region-average visibility was better before 1988 while worse after 1993 when comparing to the entire period, with the transition period of 1988-1993. The worst 20%, 50% and best 20% of region-average visibility

Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

2017-12-01

-eastern parts of Ethiopia extending to the south-west covering Somali and Oromia regions. Similar trends are also observed in the greatest 3-, 5- and 10-day rainfall amounts. Changes in the consecutive dry and wet days showed that consecutive wet days during Belg and Kiremt seasons decreased significantly in many areas in Ethiopia while consecutive dry days increased. The consistency in the trends over large spatial areas confirms the robustness of the trends and serves as a basis for understanding the projected changes in the climate. These results were discussed in relation to their significance to agriculture.

Hydroxyl layer: trend of number density and intra-annual variability

Science.gov (United States)

Sonnemann, G. R.; Hartogh, P.; Berger, U.; Grygalashvyly, M.

2015-06-01

The layer of vibrationally excited hydroxyl (OH*) near the mesopause in Earth's atmosphere is widely used to derive the temperature at this height and to observe dynamical processes such as gravity waves. The concentration of OH* is controlled by the product of atomic hydrogen, with ozone creating a layer of enhanced concentration in the mesopause region. However, the basic influences on the OH* layer are atomic oxygen and temperature. The long-term monitoring of this layer provides information on a changing atmosphere. It is important to know which proportion of a trend results from anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere and which proportion reflects natural variations. In a previous paper (Grygalashvyly et al., 2014), the trend of the height of the layer and the trend in temperature were investigated particularly in midlatitudes on the basis of our coupled dynamic and chemical transport model LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere). In this paper we consider the trend for the number density between the years 1961 and 2009 and analyze the reason of the trends on a global scale. Further, we consider intra-annual variations. Temperature and wind have the strongest impacts on the trend. Surprisingly, the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) has no clear influence on the chemistry of OH*. The main reason for this lies in the fact that, in the production term of OH*, if atomic hydrogen increases due to increasing humidity of the middle atmosphere by methane oxidation, ozone decreases. The maximum of the OH* layer is found in the mesopause region and is very variable. The mesopause region is a very intricate domain marked by changeable dynamics and strong gradients of all chemically active minor constituents determining the OH* chemistry. The OH* concentration responds, in part, very sensitively to small changes in these parameters. The cause for this behavior is given by nonlinear reactions of the photochemical system being a nonlinear enforced chemical oscillator

Hydroxyl layer: trend of number density and intra-annual variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. R. Sonnemann

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The layer of vibrationally excited hydroxyl (OH* near the mesopause in Earth's atmosphere is widely used to derive the temperature at this height and to observe dynamical processes such as gravity waves. The concentration of OH* is controlled by the product of atomic hydrogen, with ozone creating a layer of enhanced concentration in the mesopause region. However, the basic influences on the OH* layer are atomic oxygen and temperature. The long-term monitoring of this layer provides information on a changing atmosphere. It is important to know which proportion of a trend results from anthropogenic impacts on the atmosphere and which proportion reflects natural variations. In a previous paper (Grygalashvyly et al., 2014, the trend of the height of the layer and the trend in temperature were investigated particularly in midlatitudes on the basis of our coupled dynamic and chemical transport model LIMA (Leibniz Institute Middle Atmosphere. In this paper we consider the trend for the number density between the years 1961 and 2009 and analyze the reason of the trends on a global scale. Further, we consider intra-annual variations. Temperature and wind have the strongest impacts on the trend. Surprisingly, the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs has no clear influence on the chemistry of OH*. The main reason for this lies in the fact that, in the production term of OH*, if atomic hydrogen increases due to increasing humidity of the middle atmosphere by methane oxidation, ozone decreases. The maximum of the OH* layer is found in the mesopause region and is very variable. The mesopause region is a very intricate domain marked by changeable dynamics and strong gradients of all chemically active minor constituents determining the OH* chemistry. The OH* concentration responds, in part, very sensitively to small changes in these parameters. The cause for this behavior is given by nonlinear reactions of the photochemical system being a nonlinear enforced

Wage Sorting Trends

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bagger, Jesper; Vejlin, Rune Majlund; Sørensen, Kenneth Lykke

Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001. The non......Using a population-wide Danish Matched Employer-Employee panel from 1980-2006, we document a strong trend towards more positive assortative wage sorting. The correlation between worker and firm fixed effects estimated from a log wage regression increases from -0.07 in 1981 to .14 in 2001....... The nonstationary wage sorting pattern is not due to compositional changes in the labor market, primarily occurs among high wage workers, and comprises 41 percent of the increase in the standard deviation of log real wages between 1980 and 2006. We show that the wage sorting trend is associated with worker...

Prevalence, co-occurrence and decennial trends of family violence toward children in the general population.

Science.gov (United States)

Clément, Marie-Ève; Chamberland, Claire; Bouchard, Camil

2016-03-14

In Quebec, three population-based surveys have documented the prevalence of psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence toward children. This paper aims to present 1) the results of the 2012 survey with regard to the frequency and annual prevalence of violence, and 2) the trends in all three forms of violence between 1999 and 2012 according to children's age. The three independent surveys were all conducted through telephone interviews in 1999, 2004 and 2012 by the Institut de la Statistique du Québec and reached a total sample of 9,646 children living with a mother figure. Psychological aggression, and minor and severe physical violence were measured using the Parent Child Conflict Tactics Scales. The results show that repeated psychological aggression, after having increased between 1999 (48%) and 2004 (53%), slightly decreased in 2012 (49%). Minor physical violence decreased steadily between 1999 and 2012, from 48% to 35%, and severe physical violence remained stable (6%). These three forms of violence varied by the age category of the children. Finally, the results show that the co-occurrence of the use of physical and psychological violence remained high in all three surveys. The results are consistent with trends in North America and are discussed in terms of services to support families.

Skiing trends

Science.gov (United States)

Charles R. Goeldner; Stacy Standley

1980-01-01

A brief historical overview of skiing is presented, followed by a review of factors such as energy, population trends, income, sex, occupation and attitudes which affect the future of skiing. A. C. Neilson's Sports Participation Surveys show that skiing is the second fastest growing sport in the country. Skiing Magazine's study indicates there are...

Time trends in burdens of cadmium, lead, and mercury in the population of northern Sweden

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wennberg, Maria; Lundh, Thomas; Bergdahl, Ingvar A.; Hallmans, Goeran; Jansson, Jan-Hakan; Stegmayr, Birgitta; Custodio, Hipolito M.; Skerfving, Staffan

2006-01-01

The time trends of exposure to heavy metals are not adequately known. This is a worldwide problem with regard to the basis for preventive actions and evaluation of their effects. This study addresses time trends for the three toxic elements cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb). Concentrations in erythrocytes (Ery) were determined in a subsample of the population-based MONICA surveys from 1990, 1994, and 1999 in a total of 600 men and women aged 25-74 years. The study took place in the two northernmost counties in Sweden. To assess the effect of changes in the environment, adjustments were made for life-style factors that are determinants of exposure. Annual decreases of 5-6% were seen for Ery-Pb levels (adjusted for age and changes in alcohol intake) and Ery-Hg levels (adjusted for age and changes in fish intake). Ery-Cd levels (adjusted for age) showed a similar significant decrease in smoking men. It is concluded that for Pb and maybe also Hg the actions against pollution during recent decades have caused a rapid decrease of exposure; for Hg the decreased use of dental amalgam may also have had an influence. For Cd, the decline in Ery-Cd was seen only in smokers, indicating that Cd exposure from tobacco has decreased, while other environmental sources of Cd have not changed significantly. To further improve the health status in Sweden, it is important to decrease the pollution of Cd, and actions against smoking in the community are important

Trends in asthma mortality in young people in southern Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Chatkin, J M; Barreto, S M; Fonseca, N A; Gutiérrez, C A; Sears, M R

1999-03-01

Mortality from asthma increased and is now declining in some countries, but little is known about these trends in South America. We aimed to assess trends in mortality from asthma in southern Brazil in children and young adults. Death certificates of 425 people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul aged between 5 and 39 years in whom asthma was reported to be the underlying cause of death during the period 1970 to 1992 were reviewed. Population data were available in 10-year age groups. Testing for trends in mortality rates was conducted using linear and log-linear regression procedures. Asthma mortality rates in the age groups 5 to 19 and 20 to 39 years ranged between 0.04 and 0.39/100,000 and 0.28 to 0.75/100,000, respectively, and were nonuniformly distributed over the study period. The mean annual increase in rate in 5- to 19-year olds was +0.01 (95% CI 0.003 to 0.016), an average annual percentage increase of +6.8% (95% CI 3% to 11%), with a total increase of 352% between 1970 and 1992. This increase was not due to a shift in labeling from bronchitis to asthma. In the 20 to 39-year age group, asthma and bronchitis mortality rates showed no trend to increase or decrease. Asthma mortality in southern Brazil is low, but rose significantly between 1970 and 1992 in the 5 to 19-year age group. This trend differs from that found in other states of Brazil and several other Latin American countries. Reasons for this difference remain unclear.

Trends analysis of rainfall and rainfall extremes in Sarawak, Malaysia using modified Mann-Kendall test

Science.gov (United States)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

2017-11-01

This study assesses the spatial pattern of changes in rainfall extremes of Sarawak in recent years (1980-2014). The Mann-Kendall (MK) test along with modified Mann-Kendall (m-MK) test, which can discriminate multi-scale variability of unidirectional trend, was used to analyze the changes at 31 stations. Taking account of the scaling effect through eliminating the effect of autocorrelation, m-MK was employed to discriminate multi-scale variability of the unidirectional trends of the annual rainfall in Sarawak. It can confirm the significance of the MK test. The annual rainfall trend from MK test showed significant changes at 95% confidence level at five stations. The seasonal trends from MK test indicate an increasing rate of rainfall during the Northeast monsoon and a decreasing trend during the Southwest monsoon in some region of Sarawak. However, the m-MK test detected an increasing trend in annual rainfall only at one station and no significant trend in seasonal rainfall at any stations. The significant increasing trends of the 1-h maximum rainfall from the MK test are detected mainly at the stations located in the urban area giving concern to the occurrence of the flash flood. On the other hand, the m-MK test detected no significant trend in 1- and 3-h maximum rainfalls at any location. On the contrary, it detected significant trends in 6- and 72-h maximum rainfalls at a station located in the Lower Rajang basin area which is an extensive low-lying agricultural area and prone to stagnant flood. These results indicate that the trends in rainfall and rainfall extremes reported in Malaysia and surrounding region should be verified with m-MK test as most of the trends may result from scaling effect.

Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch rates and trends, 1991-2011.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cynthia J Lagueux

Full Text Available This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs. More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i an increase in reproductive output, ii insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population

Econophysics — complex correlations and trend switchings in financial time series

Science.gov (United States)

Preis, T.

2011-03-01

This article focuses on the analysis of financial time series and their correlations. A method is used for quantifying pattern based correlations of a time series. With this methodology, evidence is found that typical behavioral patterns of financial market participants manifest over short time scales, i.e., that reactions to given price patterns are not entirely random, but that similar price patterns also cause similar reactions. Based on the investigation of the complex correlations in financial time series, the question arises, which properties change when switching from a positive trend to a negative trend. An empirical quantification by rescaling provides the result that new price extrema coincide with a significant increase in transaction volume and a significant decrease in the length of corresponding time intervals between transactions. These findings are independent of the time scale over 9 orders of magnitude, and they exhibit characteristics which one can also find in other complex systems in nature (and in physical systems in particular). These properties are independent of the markets analyzed. Trends that exist only for a few seconds show the same characteristics as trends on time scales of several months. Thus, it is possible to study financial bubbles and their collapses in more detail, because trend switching processes occur with higher frequency on small time scales. In addition, a Monte Carlo based simulation of financial markets is analyzed and extended in order to reproduce empirical features and to gain insight into their causes. These causes include both financial market microstructure and the risk aversion of market participants.

Locum tenens and telepsychiatry: trends in psychiatric care.

Science.gov (United States)

Thiele, Jonathan S; Doarn, Charles R; Shore, Jay H

2015-06-01

There is a national shortage of psychiatrists, and according to nationally available data, it is projected to get worse. Locum tenens psychiatry and telepsychiatry are two ways to fill the shortages of psychiatric providers that exist in many areas in the United States. Employment and salary data in these areas can be used to illuminate current trends and anticipate future solutions to the problem of increasing demand for, and decreasing supply of, psychiatrists in the United States. A search was conducted of the literature and relevant Web sites, including PubMed, Google Scholar, and www.google.com , as well as information obtained from locum tenens and telepsychiatry organizations. There is a dearth of data on the use of locum tenens in the field of psychiatry, with little available prior to 2000 and few published studies since then. The majority of the data available are survey data from commercial entities. These data show trends toward increasing demand for psychiatry along with increasing salaries and indicate the utilization of telepsychiatry and locum tenens telepsychiatry is increasing. The published academic data that are available show that although locum tenens psychiatry is slightly inferior to routine psychiatric care, telepsychiatry is generally equivalent to face-to-face care. One can anticipate that as the national shortage of psychiatrists is expected to accelerate, use of both locum tenens and telepsychiatry may also continue to increase. Telepsychiatry offers several possible advantages, including lower cost, longer-term services, quality of care, and models that can extend psychiatric services. If current trends continue, systems that demand face-to-face psychiatry may find themselves paying higher fees for locum tenens psychiatrists, whereas others may employ psychiatrists more efficiently with telepsychiatry.

Trends in hospitalisation for acute myocardial infarction in Ireland, 1997-2008.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Jennings, Siobhan M

2012-07-16

OBJECTIVE: To study the temporal and gender trends in age-standardised hospitalisation rates, in-hospital mortality rates and indicators of health service use for acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and the sub-categories, ST elevation MI (STEMI) and non-ST elevation MI (NSTEMI), in Ireland, 1997-2008. DESIGN, SETTING, PATIENTS: Anonymised data from the hospital inpatient enquiry were studied for the ICD codes covering STEMI and NSTEMI in all 39 acute hospitals in Ireland over a 12-year period. Age standardisation (direct method) was used to study hospitalisation and in-hospital mortality rates. Joinpoint regression analysis was undertaken to identify significant inflection points in hospitalisation trends. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Age-standardised hospitalisation rates, in-hospital mortality and indicators of health service use (length of stay, bed days) for AMI, STEMI and NSTEMI patients. RESULTS: From 1997 to 2008, hospitalisation rates for AMI decreased by 27%, and by 68% for STEMI patients (test for trend p<0.001), and increased by 122% for NSTEMI, (test for trend p<0.001). The mean age of male STEMI patients decreased (p<0.01), while those for the remaining groupings of AMI and subcategories increased. The proportion of males increased significantly for STEMI and NSTEMI (p<0.001). In-hospital mortality decreased steadily (p=0.01 STEMI, p=0.02 NSTEMI), as did median length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: The authors found a steady decrease in hospitalisation rates with AMI, and a shift away from STEMI towards rising rates of NSTEMI patients who are increasingly older. In an ageing population, and with increasing survival rates, surveillance of acute coronary syndrome and allied conditions is necessary to inform clinicians and policy makers.

Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

Science.gov (United States)

Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

2014-09-01

Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal and spatial trends for trace metals in streams and rivers across Sweden (1996–2009

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J. Fölster

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Long term data series (1996 through 2009 for trace metals were analyzed from a large number of streams and rivers across Sweden varying in tributary watershed size from 0.05 to 48 193 km2. The final data set included 139 stream sites with data for arsenic (As, cobalt (Co, copper (Cu, chromium (Cr, nickel (Ni, lead (Pb, zinc (Zn, and vanadium (V. Between 7 % and 46 % of the sites analyzed showed significant trends according to the seasonal Kendall test. However, in contrast to previous studies and depositional patterns, a substantial portion of the trends were positive, especially for V (100 %, As (95 %, and Pb (68 %. Other metals (Zn and Cr generally decreased, were mixed (Ni and Zn, or had very few trends (Co over the study period. Trends by region were also analyzed and some showed significant variation between the north and south of Sweden. Regional trends for both Cu and Pb were positive (60 % and 93 %, respectively in the southern region but strongly negative (93 % and 75 %, respectively in the northern region. Kendall's τ coefficients were used to determine dependence between metals and potential in-stream drivers including total organic carbon (TOC, iron (Fe, pH, and sulphate (SO42−. TOC and Fe correlated positively and strongly with As, V, Pb, and Co while pH and SO42− generally correlated weakly, or not at all with the metals studied.

Trend analyses with river sediment rating curves

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Warrick, Jonathan A.

2015-01-01

Sediment rating curves, which are fitted relationships between river discharge (Q) and suspended-sediment concentration (C), are commonly used to assess patterns and trends in river water quality. In many of these studies it is assumed that rating curves have a power-law form (i.e., C = aQb, where a and b are fitted parameters). Two fundamental questions about the utility of these techniques are assessed in this paper: (i) How well to the parameters, a and b, characterize trends in the data? (ii) Are trends in rating curves diagnostic of changes to river water or sediment discharge? As noted in previous research, the offset parameter, a, is not an independent variable for most rivers, but rather strongly dependent on b and Q. Here it is shown that a is a poor metric for trends in the vertical offset of a rating curve, and a new parameter, â, as determined by the discharge-normalized power function [C = â (Q/QGM)b], where QGM is the geometric mean of the Q values sampled, provides a better characterization of trends. However, these techniques must be applied carefully, because curvature in the relationship between log(Q) and log(C), which exists for many rivers, can produce false trends in â and b. Also, it is shown that trends in â and b are not uniquely diagnostic of river water or sediment supply conditions. For example, an increase in â can be caused by an increase in sediment supply, a decrease in water supply, or a combination of these conditions. Large changes in water and sediment supplies can occur without any change in the parameters, â and b. Thus, trend analyses using sediment rating curves must include additional assessments of the time-dependent rates and trends of river water, sediment concentrations, and sediment discharge.

An Innovative Fuzzy-Logic-Based Methodology for Trend Identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xin; Tsoukalas, Lefteri H.; Wei, Thomas Y.C.; Reifman, Jaques

2001-01-01

A new fuzzy-logic-based methodology for on-line signal trend identification is introduced. The methodology may be used for detecting the onset of nuclear power plant (NPP) transients at the earliest possible time and could be of great benefit to diagnostic, maintenance, and performance-monitoring programs. Although signal trend identification is complicated by the presence of noise, fuzzy methods can help capture important features of on-line signals, integrate the information included in these features, and classify incoming NPP signals into increasing, decreasing, and steady-state trend categories. A computer program named PROTREN is developed and tested for the purpose of verifying this methodology using NPP and simulation data. The results indicate that the new fuzzy-logic-based methodology is capable of detecting transients accurately, it identifies trends reliably and does not misinterpret a steady-state signal as a transient one

2001-2012 trends on air quality in Spain.

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Querol, X; Alastuey, A; Pandolfi, M; Reche, C; Pérez, N; Minguillón, M C; Moreno, T; Viana, M; Escudero, M; Orio, A; Pallarés, M; Reina, F

2014-08-15

This study aims at interpreting the 2001-2012 trends of major air pollutants in Spain, with a major focus on evaluating their relationship with those of the national emission inventories (NEI) and policy actions. Marked downward concentration trends were evidenced for PM10, PM2.5 and CO. Concentrations of NO2 and NOx also declined but in a lesser proportion at rural and traffic sites. At rural sites O3 has been kept constant, whereas it clearly increased at urban and industrial sites. Comparison of the air quality trends and major inflection points with those from NEIs, the National Energy Consumption and the calendar of the implementation of major policy actions allowed us to clearly identify major benefits of European directives on power generation and industrial sources (such as the Large Combustion Plants and the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Directives). This, together with a sharp 2007-2008 decrease of coal consumption has probably caused the marked parallel decline of SO2, NOx and for PM2.5 concentrations. Also the effect of the EURO 4 and 5 vehicle emission standards on decreasing emissions of PM and CO from vehicles is noticeable. The smooth decline in NO2-NOx levels is mostly attributed to the low efficiency of EURO 4 and 5 standards in reducing real life urban driving NO2 emissions. The low NOx decrease together with the complexity of the reactions of O3 formation is responsible for the constant O3 concentrations, or even the urban increase. The financial crisis has also contributed to the decrease of the ambient concentration of pollutants; however this caused a major reduction of the primary energy consumption from 2008 to 2009, and not from 2007 to 2008 when ambient air PM and SO2 sharply decreased. The meteorological influence was characterized by a 2008-2012 period favorable to the dispersion of pollutants when compared to the 2001-2007. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Trends in Canadian Sociology Master's Theses in Relation to Research Ethics Review, 1995-2004.

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van den Hoonaard, Will C

2006-12-01

THIS PAPER EXAMINES TRENDS IN CANADIAN Master's theses in sociology, 1995-2004, in the course the implementation of Canada's national research-ethics guidelines (2001), using data available from ProQuest Dissertations. While there has been no decline in the number of theses completed during this period, nearly 1/4 fewer theses now involve research participants. The proportion of theses using quantitative methods shows decline; theses using qualitative methods, however, have increased significantly over time. A closer inspection qualitative theses shows an impressive increase in the proportion of theses using interviews, while the decrease in theses using field work is even more dramatic, from 40% to 5%. The decrease of theses involving field work is particularly alarming for a significant segment of sociology that must derive its material mainly from field work. Data drawn from a larger study supplement the findings in this article.

Rainfall and runoff regime trends in mountain catchments (Case study area: the upper Hron River basin, Slovakia

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Blahušiaková Andrea

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of trends and causes of changes of selected hydroclimatic variables influencing the runoff regime in the upper Hron River basin (Slovakia. Different methods for identifying trends in data series are evaluated and include: simple mass curve analysis, linear regression, frequency analysis of flood events, use of the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration software, and the Mann-Kendall test. Analyses are performed for data from two periods (1931-2010 and 1961-2010. The changes in runoff are significant, especially in terms of lower QMax and 75 percentile values. This fact is also confirmed by the lower frequency and extremity of flood events. The 1980s are considered a turning point in the development of all hydroclimatic variables. The Mann-Kendall test shows a significant decrease in runoff in the winter period. The main causes of runoff decline are: the considerable increase in air temperature, the decrease in snow cover depth and changes in seasonal distribution of precipitation amounts.

International trends of radioactive waste management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo Shanggeng

1989-01-01

The new trends of radioactive waste management in the world such as focusing on decreasing the amount of radioactive wastes, developing decontamination and decommissioning technology, conscientious solution for radiactive waste disposal, carrying out social services of waste treatment and quality assurance are reviewed. Besides, comments and suggestions are presented. Key words Radioactive waste management, Radioactive waste treatment, Radioactive waste disposal

Schisandrin B protects PC12 cells by decreasing the expression of amyloid precursor protein and vacuolar protein sorting 35★

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Yan, Mingmin; Mao, Shanping; Dong, Huimin; Liu, Baohui; Zhang, Qian; Pan, Gaofeng; Fu, Zhiping

2012-01-01

PC12 cell injury was induced using 20 μM amyloid β-protein 25–35 to establish a model of Alzheimer's disease. The cells were then treated with 5, 10, and 25 μM Schisandrin B. Methylthiazolyldiphenyl-tetrazolium bromide assays and Hoechst 33342 staining results showed that with increasing Schisandrin B concentration, the survival rate of PC12 cells injured by amyloid β-protein 25–35 gradually increased and the rate of apoptosis gradually decreased. Reverse transcription-PCR, immunocytochemical staining and western blot results showed that with increasing Schisandrin B concentration, the mRNA and protein expression of vacuolar protein sorting 35 and amyloid precursor protein were gradually decreased. Vacuolar protein sorting 35 and amyloid precursor protein showed a consistent trend for change. These findings suggest that 5, 10, and 25 μM Schisandrin B antagonizes the cellular injury induced by amyloid β-protein 25–35 in a dose-dependent manner. This may be caused by decreasing the expression of vacuolar protein sorting 35 and amyloid precursor protein. PMID:25745458

Long-term trends of heat stress and energy use implications in subtropical climates

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Lam, Joseph C.; Wan, Kevin K.W.; Wong, S.L.; Lam, Tony N.T. [Building Energy Research Group, Department of Building and Construction, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong SAR (China)

2010-02-15

Past and future trends of human comfort in terms of heat and cold stresses under the local subtropical climates using measured meteorological data as well as predictions from general climate models were investigated. Summer discomfort showed an increasing trend (and winter discomfort a decreasing trend) over the past 41 years from 1968 to 2008. Monthly mean minimum and maximum temperatures and moisture content predictions from a general climate model (MIROC3.2-H) were used to determine summer and winter discomfort for future years (2009-2100) based on two emissions scenarios B1 and A1B (low and medium forcing). The 92-year (2009-2100) mean cold stress would be reduced from the 41-year (1968-2008) mean value of 8.7 to about three for both emissions scenarios. The 92-year mean heat stress would be 115.9 and 120.6 for B1 and A1B, respectively, representing 31.6% and 36.9% increase over the 1968-2008 long-term average of 88.1. These suggest that the already small winter heating requirement in subtropical Hong Kong would become even more insignificant in future years, whereas the increasing trend of summer discomfort would result in more cooling demand in the built environment. (author)

Spatio-temporal long-term (1950-2009) temperature trend analysis in North Carolina, United States

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Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Jha, Manoj K.; Mekonnen, Ademe

2015-04-01

This study analyzed long-term (1950-2009) annual and seasonal time series data of maximum and minimum temperature from 249 uniformly distributed stations across the State of North Carolina, United States. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen approach were applied to quantify the significance and magnitude of trend, respectively. A pre-whitening technique was applied to eliminate the effect of lag-1 serial correlation. For most stations over the period of the past 60 years, the difference between minimum and maximum temperatures was found decreasing with an overall increasing trend in the mean temperature. However, significant trends (confidence level ≥ 95 %) in the mean temperature analysis were detected only in 20, 3, 23, and 20 % of the stations in summer, winter, autumn, and spring, respectively. The magnitude of the highest warming trend in minimum temperature and the highest cooling trend in maximum temperature was +0.073 °C/year in the autumn season and -0.12 °C/year in the summer season, respectively. Additional analysis in mean temperature trend was conducted on three regions of North Carolina (mountain, piedmont, and coastal). The results revealed a warming trend for the coastal zone, a cooling trend for the mountain zone, and no distinct trend for the piedmont zone. The Sequential Mann-Kendall test results indicated that the significant increasing trends in minimum temperature and decreasing trend in maximum temperature had begun around 1970 and 1960 (change point), respectively, in most of the stations. Finally, the comparison between mean surface air temperature (SAT) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) concluded that the variability and trend in SAT can be explained partially by the NAO index for North Carolina.

Timescales for determining temperature and dissolved oxygen trends in the Long Island Sound (LIS) estuary

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Staniec, Allison; Vlahos, Penny

2017-12-01

Long-term time series represent a critical part of the oceanographic community's efforts to discern natural and anthropogenically forced variations in the environment. They provide regular measurements of climate relevant indicators including temperature, oxygen concentrations, and salinity. When evaluating time series, it is essential to isolate long-term trends from autocorrelation in data and noise due to natural variability. Herein we apply a statistical approach, well-established in atmospheric time series, to key parameters in the U.S. east coast's Long Island Sound estuary (LIS). Analysis shows that the LIS time series (established in the early 1990s) is sufficiently long to detect significant trends in physical-chemical parameters including temperature (T) and dissolved oxygen (DO). Over the last two decades, overall (combined surface and deep) LIS T has increased at an average rate of 0.08 ± 0.03 °C yr-1 while overall DO has dropped at an average rate of 0.03 ± 0.01 mg L-1yr-1 since 1994 at the 95% confidence level. This trend is notably faster than the global open ocean T trend (0.01 °C yr-1), as might be expected for a shallower estuarine system. T and DO trends were always significant for the existing time series using four month data increments. Rates of change of DO and T in LIS are strongly correlated and the rate of decrease of DO concentrations is consistent with the expected reduced solubility of DO at these higher temperatures. Thus, changes in T alone, across decadal timescales can account for between 33 and 100% of the observed decrease in DO. This has significant implications for other dissolved gases and the long-term management of LIS hypoxia.

Trends in gastric cancer mortality and in the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection in Portugal.

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Morais, Samantha; Ferro, Ana; Bastos, Ana; Castro, Clara; Lunet, Nuno; Peleteiro, Bárbara

2016-07-01

Portugal has the highest gastric cancer mortality rates in Western Europe, along with high prevalences of Helicobacter pylori infection. Monitoring their trends is essential to predict the burden of this cancer. We aimed to quantify time trends in gastric cancer mortality in Portugal and in each administrative region, and to compute short-term predictions, as well as to describe the prevalence of H. pylori infection, through a systematic review. Joinpoint analyses were used to identify significant changes in sex-specific trends in gastric cancer age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and to estimate annual percent changes (APC). The most recent trends were considered to compute estimates up to 2020 by adjusting Poisson regression models. We searched PubMed and IndexRMP to identify studies carried out in Portugal reporting the prevalence of H. pylori. Gastric cancer mortality has been decreasing in Portugal since 1971 in men (from ASMR=55.3/100 000; APC=-2.4, 95% confidence interval: -2.5 to -2.3) and since 1970 in women (from ASMR=28.0/100 000; APC=-2.8, 95% confidence interval: -2.9 to -2.7), although large regional differences were observed. Predicted ASMR for 2015 and 2020 were 18.8/100 000 and 16.7/100 000 for men and 8.5/100 000 and 7.4/100 000 for women, respectively. The prevalence of H. pylori varied from almost 5% at 0.5-2 years to just over 90% at 70 years or more. No consistent variation was observed since the 1990s. The downward trends in mortality rates are expected to remain in the next decades. The high prevalence of H. pylori infection across age groups and studies from different periods shows a large potential for decrease in the burden of gastric cancer in Portugal.

Arctic Sea Ice Variability and Trends, 1979-2006

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Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.

2008-01-01

Analysis of Arctic sea ice extents derived from satellite passive-microwave data for the 28 years, 1979-2006 yields an overall negative trend of -45,100 +/- 4,600 km2/yr (-3.7 +/- 0.4%/decade) in the yearly averages, with negative ice-extent trends also occurring for each of the four seasons and each of the 12 months. For the yearly averages the largest decreases occur in the Kara and Barents Seas and the Arctic Ocean, with linear least squares slopes of -10,600 +/- 2,800 km2/yr (-7.4 +/- 2.0%/decade) and -10,100 +/- 2,200 km2/yr (-1.5 +/- 0.3%/decade), respectively, followed by Baffin Bay/Labrador Sea, with a slope of -8,000 +/- 2,000 km2/yr) -9.0 +/- 2.3%/decade), the Greenland Sea, with a slope of -7,000 +/- 1,400 km2/yr (-9.3 +/- 1.9%/decade), and Hudson Bay, with a slope of -4,500 +/- 900 km2/yr (-5.3 +/- 1.1%/decade). These are all statistically significant decreases at a 99% confidence level. The Seas of Okhotsk and Japan also have a statistically significant ice decrease, although at a 95% confidence level, and the three remaining regions, the Bering Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and Gulf of St. Lawrence, have negative slopes that are not statistically significant. The 28-year trends in ice areas for the Northern Hemisphere total are also statistically significant and negative in each season, each month, and for the yearly averages.

Time trends of perfluorinated compounds from the sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan (1950s-2004)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zushi, Yasuyuki; Tamada, Masafumi; Kanai, Yutaka; Masunaga, Shigeki

2010-01-01

Perfluorinated compounds (PFCs) were detected in sediment core samples collected in Tokyo Bay to reveal their time trends. The core sample deposited during 1950s-2004 was divided into two- to three-year intervals and the concentrations of 24 types of PFCs were determined. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) decreased gradually from the early 1990s and its precursor decreased rapidly in the late 1990s, whereas perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) increased rapidly. The observed trends were regarded as a reflection of the shift from perfluorooctyl sulfonyl fluoride (PFOSF)-based products to telomer-based products after the phaseout of PFOSF-based products in 2001. The branched isomers of perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnDA) and perfluorotridecanoic acid (PFTrDA) were detected in the sample with its ratio of linear-isomer/branched-isomer concentrations decreasing. In this study, we revealed that the sediment core can serve as a tool for reconstructing the past pollution trend of PFCs and can provide interesting evidence concerning their environmental dynamics and time trend. - This study reports the time trends of the concentrations of 24 species of PFCs, including FTCA, FTUCA and FOSAA, in a sediment core of Tokyo Bay, Japan.

Trends of Bacterial Keratitis Culture Isolates in Jerusalem; a 13- Years Analysis.

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Michael Politis

Full Text Available To describe the trends in pathogens and antibacterial resistance of corneal culture isolates in infectious keratitis during a period of 13 years at Hadassah-Hebrew University Medical Center.A Retrospective analysis of bacterial corneal isolates was performed during the months of January 2002 to December 2014 at Hadassah Hebrew University Medical Center. Demographics, microbiological data and antibiotic resistance and sensitivity were collected.A total of 943 corneal isolates were analyzed during a 13 year period. A total of 415 positive bacterial cultures and 37 positive fungal cultures were recovered, representing 48% of the total cultures. The Annual incidence was 34.78 ± 6.54 cases. The most common isolate was coagulase-negative staphylococcus (32%, which had a significant decrease in trend throughout the study period (APC = -8.1, p = 0.002. Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA appears to have a decrease trend (APC = -31.2, P = 0.5. There was an increase in the resistance trend of coagulase-negative staphylococci to penicillin (APC = 5.0, P = <0.001. None of the pathogens had developed any resistance to Vancomycin. (P = 0.88.Coagulase negative staphylococci were the predominant bacteria isolated from patients with keratitis. There was no significant change in the annual incidence of cases of bacterial keratitis seen over the past 13 years. Keratitis caused by MRSA appeared to decrease in contrast to the reported literature.

Wet-bulb, dew point, and air temperature trends in Spain

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Moratiel, R.; Soriano, B.; Centeno, A.; Spano, D.; Snyder, R. L.

2017-10-01

This study analyses trends of mean ( T m), maximum ( T x), minimum ( T n), dew point ( T d), and wet-bulb temperatures ( T w) on an annual, seasonal, and monthly time scale over Spain during the period 1981-2010. The main purpose was to determine how temperature and humidity changes are impacting on T w, which is probably a better measure of climate change than temperature alone. In this study, 43 weather stations were used to detect data trends using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and the Sen method to estimate the slope of trends. Significant linear trends observed for T m, T x, and T n versus year were 56, 58, and 47 % of the weather stations, respectively, with temperature ranges between 0.2 and 0.4 °C per decade. The months with bigger trends were April, May, June, and July with the highest trend for T x. The spatial behaviour of T d and T w was variable, with various locations showing trends from -0.6 to +0.3 °C per decade for T d and from -0.4 to +0.5 °C per decade for T w. Both T d and T w showed negative trends for July, August, September, November, and December. Comparing the trends versus time of each variable versus each of the other variables exhibited poor relationships, which means you cannot predict the trend of one variable from the trend of another variable. The trend of T x was not related to the trend of T n. The trends of T x, T m, and T n versus time were unrelated to the trends versus time of either T d or T w. The trend of T w showed a high coefficient of determination with the trend of T d with an annual value of R 2 = 0.86. Therefore, the T w trend is more related to changes in humidity than temperature.

National Differences in Trends for Heart Failure Hospitalizations by Sex and Race/Ethnicity.

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Ziaeian, Boback; Kominski, Gerald F; Ong, Michael K; Mays, Vickie M; Brook, Robert H; Fonarow, Gregg C

2017-07-01

National heart failure (HF) hospitalization rates have not been appropriately age standardized by sex or race/ethnicity. Reporting hospital utilization trends by subgroup is important for monitoring population health and developing interventions to eliminate disparities. The National Inpatient Sample (NIS) was used to estimate the crude and age-standardized rates of HF hospitalization between 2002 and 2013 by sex and race/ethnicity. Direct standardization was used to age-standardize rates to the 2000 US standard population. Relative differences between subgroups were reported. The national age-adjusted HF hospitalization rate decreased 30.8% from 526.86 to 364.66 per 100 000 between 2002 and 2013. Although hospitalizations decreased for all subgroups, the ratio of the age-standardized rate for men compared with women increased from 20% greater to 39% ( P trend=0.002) between 2002 and 2013. Black men had a rate that was 229% ( P trend=0.141) and black women, 240% ( P trend=0.725) with reference to whites in 2013 with no significant change between 2002 and 2013. Hispanic men had a rate that was 32% greater in 2002 and the difference narrowed to 4% ( P trend=0.047) greater in 2013 relative to whites. For Hispanic women, the rate was 55% greater in 2002 and narrowed to 8% greater ( P trend=0.004) in 2013 relative to whites. Asian/Pacific Islander men had a 27% lower rate in 2002 that improved to 43% ( P trend=0.040) lower in 2013 relative to whites. For Asian/Pacific Islander women, the hospitalization rate was 24% lower in 2002 and improved to 43% ( P trend=0.021) lower in 2013 relative to whites. National HF hospitalization rates have decreased steadily during the recent decade. Disparities in HF burden and hospital utilization by sex and race/ethnicity persist. Significant population health interventions are needed to reduce the HF hospitalization burden among blacks. An evaluation of factors explaining the improvements in the HF hospitalization rates among

Deciphering the contrasting climatic trends between the central Himalaya and Karakoram with 36 years of WRF simulations

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Norris, Jesse; Carvalho, Leila M. V.; Jones, Charles; Cannon, Forest

2018-02-01

Glaciers over the central Himalaya have retreated at particularly rapid rates in recent decades, while glacier mass in the Karakoram appears stable. To address the meteorological factors associated with this contrast, 36 years of Climate Forecast System Reanalyses (CFSR) are dynamically downscaled from 1979 to 2015 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over High Mountain Asia at convection permitting grid spacing (6.7 km). In all seasons, CFSR shows an anti-cyclonic warming trend over the majority of High Mountain Asia, but distinctive differences are observed between the central Himalaya and Karakoram in winter and summer. In winter and summer, the central Himalaya has been under the influence of an anti-cyclonic trend, which in summer the downscaling shows has reduced cloud cover, leading to significant warming and reduced snowfall in recent years. Contrastingly, the Karakoram has been near the boundary between large-scale cyclonic and anti-cyclonic trends and has not experienced significant snowfall or temperature changes in winter or summer, despite significant trends in summer of increasing cloud cover and decreasing shortwave radiation. This downscaling does not identify any trends over glaciers in closer neighboring regions to the Karakoram (e.g., Hindu Kush and the western Himalaya) where glaciers have retreated as over the central Himalaya, indicating that there are other factors driving glacier mass balance that this downscaling is unable to capture. While this study does not fully explain the Karakoram anomaly, the identified trends detail important meteorological contributions to the observed differences between central Himalaya and Karakoram glacier evolution in recent decades.

AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Pozzer, Andrea; de Meij, Alexander; Yoon, Jongmin; Astitha, Marina

2016-04-01

The trend of aerosol optical depth (AOD) between 2001 and 2010 is estimated globally and regionally from remote sensed observations by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer), MISR (Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer) and SeaWIFS (Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor) satellite sensor. The resulting trends have been compared to model results from the EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry {[1]}), model. Although interannual variability is applied only to anthropogenic and biomass-burning emissions, the model is able to quantitatively reproduce the AOD trends as observed by MODIS, while some discrepancies are found when compared to MISR and SeaWIFS. An additional numerical simulation with the same model was performed, neglecting any temporal change in the emissions, i.e. with no interannual variability for any emission source. It is shown that decreasing AOD trends over the US and Europe are due to the decrease in the (anthropogenic) emissions. On contrary over the Sahara Desert and the Middle East region, the meteorological/dynamical changes in the last decade play a major role in driving the AOD trends. Further, over Southeast Asia, both meteorology and emissions changes are equally important in defining AOD trends {[2]}. Finally, decomposing the regional AOD trends into individual aerosol components reveals that the soluble components are the most dominant contributors to the total AOD, as their influence on the total AOD is enhanced by the aerosol water content. {[1]}: Jöckel, P., Kerkweg, A., Pozzer, A., Sander, R., Tost, H., Riede, H., Baumgaertner, A., Gromov, S., and Kern, B.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi:10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. {[2]}: Pozzer, A., de Meij, A., Yoon, J., Tost, H., Georgoulias, A. K., and Astitha, M.: AOD trends during 2001-2010 from observations and model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 5521-5535, doi:10.5194/acp-15-5521-2015, 2015.

Trends in AIDS incidence and AIDS-related mortality in British Columbia between 1981 and 2013

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Lima, Viviane D.; Lourenço, Lillian; Yip, Benita; Hogg, Robert S.; Phillips, Peter; Montaner, Julio S.G.

2015-01-01

Background Appropriate use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) can markedly decrease the risk of progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and of premature mortality. We aimed to characterize the trends between 1981 and 2013 in AIDS-defining illnesses (ADIs) and in the number AIDS-related deaths in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Methods We included data of 3550 HIV-positive individuals, aged 19 years or older, from different administrative databases in BC. We estimated the relative risk of developing an ADI over time using a Negative Binomial model, and we investigated trends in the percentage of all deaths associated with AIDS using generalized additive models. Findings The number of ADIs has decreased dramatically to its lowest level in 2013. The peak of the AIDS epidemic in BC happened in 1994 with 696 ADIs being reported (rate 42 ADIs per 100 person-years). Since 1997, the number of ADIs decreased from 253 (rate 7 per 100 person-years) to 84 cases in 2013 (rate 1 per 100 person-years) (p-value equals to zero for the trend in the number of ADIs). We have also shown that out of 22 ADIs considered, only PCP maintained its prominent ranking (albeit with much reduced overall prevalence). Finally, we observed that over time very few deaths were related to AIDS-related causes, especially in the most recent years. Interpretation We showed that the number of new ADIs and AIDS-related mortality have been decreasing rapidly over time in BC. These results provide further evidence that integrated comprehensive free programs that facilitate testing, and deliver treatment and care to this population can be effective in markedly decreasing AIDS-related morbidity and mortality, thus suggesting that controlling and eventually ending AIDS is possible. Funding The British Columbia Ministry of Health, the US National Institutes of Health, the US National Institute on Drug Abuse, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and the Michael Institute for

Temporal trends 1987-2002 of regulated POPs in beluga whales from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lebeuf, M; Noel, M; Trottier, S.; Measures, L. [Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2005-07-01

Beluga populations in the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) are now threatened. The decline of the beluga population has been attributed to the presence of high concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This study assessed the temporal trends of POPs in beluga, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDT, chlordanes, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbon (HCH) isomers, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbons (HCB), and mirex in SLE populations between 1987 and 2002. Blubber concentrations of individual POP or POP groups in both male and female belugas were fitted to simple natural algorithms using linear regression analyses. Only animals older than 10 years were examined. POPs, PCBs, and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were determined in blubber samples. Temporal trends of biological parameters such as age, lipid content, and length of the animals were assessed separately for both female and male belugas. POP concentrations were expressed on a lipid weight basis for the statistical analyses. Temporal trends of biological parameters, individual POP or POP group concentrations in both females and males were assessed using simple in-linear regression analysis from which half-life time was calculated for each statistically significant time trend. Results showed that approximately half of the POPs showed significant decreasing levels in female beluga between 1987 and 2002 and in males between 1988 and 2002. Temporal trends of PCBs, DDTs, and HCH were significant in both males and females, while chlordanes, and mirex levels were not significant in either sex. HCB exhibited a significant time trend in males. Time trends were in agreement with expected declines for regulated POPs. It was concluded that bioaccumulative POPs must be rapidly regulated before they reach high levels, as POP compounds are very slowly eliminated by belugas. 9 refs., 1 tab.

Estimating the Competitive Storage Model with Trending Commodity Prices

OpenAIRE

Gouel , Christophe; LEGRAND , Nicolas

2017-01-01

We present a method to estimate jointly the parameters of a standard commodity storage model and the parameters characterizing the trend in commodity prices. This procedure allows the influence of a possible trend to be removed without restricting the model specification, and allows model and trend selection based on statistical criteria. The trend is modeled deterministically using linear or cubic spline functions of time. The results show that storage models with trend are always preferred ...

Decreasing incidence and mortality among hospitalized patients suffering a ventilator-associated pneumonia: Analysis of the Spanish national hospital discharge database from 2010 to 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

de Miguel-Díez, Javier; López-de-Andrés, Ana; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-Trujillo, Isabel; Méndez-Bailón, Manuel; Miguel-Yanes, José M de; Del Rio-Lopez, Benito; Jiménez-García, Rodrigo

2017-07-01

The aim of this study was to describe trends in the incidence and outcomes of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) among hospitalized patients in Spain (2010-2014).This is a retrospective study using the Spanish national hospital discharge database from year 2010 to 2014. We selected all hospital admissions that had an ICD-9-CM code: 997.31 for VAP in any diagnosis position. We analyzed incidence, sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, procedures, pathogen isolations, and hospital outcomes.We identified 9336 admissions with patients suffering a VAP. Incidence rates of VAP decreased significantly over time (from 41.7 cases/100,000 inhabitants in 2010 to 40.55 in 2014). The mean Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) was 1.08 ± 0.98 and it did not change significantly during the study period. The most frequent causative agent was Pseudomonas and there were not significant differences in the isolation of this microorganism over time. Time trend analyses showed a significant decrease in in-hospital mortality (IHM), from 35.74% in 2010 to 32.81% in 2014. Factor associated with higher IHM included male sex, older age, higher CCI, vein or artery occlusion, pulmonary disease, cancer, undergone surgery, emergency room admission, and readmission.This study shows that the incidence of VAP among hospitalized patients has decreased in Spain from 2010 to 2014. The IHM has also decreased over the study period. Further investigations are needed to improve the prevention and control of VAP.

Evaluating the consistency of the 1982-1999 NDVI trends in the Iberian Peninsula across four time-series derived from the AVHRR sensor: LTDR, GIMMS, FASIR, and PAL-II.

Science.gov (United States)

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Liras, Elisa; Tabik, Siham; Paruelo, José; Cabello, Javier

2010-01-01

Successive efforts have processed the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor archive to produce Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets (i.e., PAL, FASIR, GIMMS, and LTDR) under different corrections and processing schemes. Since NDVI datasets are used to evaluate carbon gains, differences among them may affect nations' carbon budgets in meeting international targets (such as the Kyoto Protocol). This study addresses the consistency across AVHRR NDVI datasets in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) by evaluating whether their 1982-1999 NDVI trends show similar spatial patterns. Significant trends were calculated with the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test and their spatial consistency with partial Mantel tests. Over 23% of the Peninsula (N, E, and central mountain ranges) showed positive and significant NDVI trends across the four datasets and an additional 18% across three datasets. In 20% of Iberia (SW quadrant), the four datasets exhibited an absence of significant trends and an additional 22% across three datasets. Significant NDVI decreases were scarce (croplands in the Guadalquivir and Segura basins, La Mancha plains, and Valencia). Spatial consistency of significant trends across at least three datasets was observed in 83% of the Peninsula, but it decreased to 47% when comparing across the four datasets. FASIR, PAL, and LTDR were the most spatially similar datasets, while GIMMS was the most different. The different performance of each AVHRR dataset to detect significant NDVI trends (e.g., LTDR detected greater significant trends (both positive and negative) and in 32% more pixels than GIMMS) has great implications to evaluate carbon budgets. The lack of spatial consistency across NDVI datasets derived from the same AVHRR sensor archive, makes it advisable to evaluate carbon gains trends using several satellite datasets and, whether possible, independent/additional data sources to contrast.

Trends in radiology in Finland between 1995 and 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hakanen, Arvi; Jaervinen, Hannu; Soimakallio, Seppo

2003-01-01

The aim of this study was to demonstrate the applicability of a joint nomenclature, i.e., the examination coding system used in Finland, for making a nationwide summary of the radiological examinations and interventional procedures. Another objective was to find trends in radiological practices in Finland between 1995 and 2000 by comparing the nationwide summaries made by Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK). An inquiry for the numbers of radiological examinations performed in 2000 was sent to 473 medical radiation users, i.e., safety license holders obtained from the registry maintained by STUK. In 2000, the proportions of plain radiography, contrast-enhanced radiography, angiography, computed tomography and radiological interventional procedures were approximately 91.1, 1.4, 0.9, 5.0, and 1.5%, respectively (distribution of medical examinations). Between 1995 and 2000, the number of medical X-ray examinations showed a slight decrease from ca. 4.2 million to ca. 4.1 million. During the investigated five years period the frequency of contrast enhanced radiography diminished ca. 50% while the frequency of computed tomography increased ca. 20%. The reported number of ultrasonographic examinations showed a slight increase to approximately 0.5 million, whereas the reported number of MRI examinations increased approximately twofold to approximately 0.1 million. The observed trends in radiological practices are useful in attempts to optimize the resources of STUK in the field of radiological protection. (orig.)

[Alcohol consumption trends among Spanish school-aged adolescents in the first decade of the 21(st) century].

Science.gov (United States)

Sánchez-Queija, Inmaculada; Moreno, Carmen; Rivera, Francisco; Ramos, Pilar

2015-01-01

To determine trends in beer, wine, and liquor consumption among Spanish adolescents in 2002, 2006, and 2010, as well as drunkenness trends during the same period. The study sample was composed of 23,169 adolescents aged 15 to 18 years old: 7,103 in 2002, 10,443 in 2006 and 5,623 in 2010. In the three time points of the study, the data were representative of Spanish adolescent students. We used the alcohol consumption questionnaire designed by the international team of the Health Behavior in School-aged Children (HBSC) study. We estimated odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals through logistic regressions. The main results showed a decrease in frequent consumption of wine and liquor from 2002 to 2010. This decrease was maintained after controlling for the variability due to the participants' gender and age. However, an increasing trend was found in drunkenness episodes in the different cohorts of the adolescents under study. The results of this study are of particular importance in the analysis of the effects of the public health policies implemented during this time period. We also found changes in consumption patterns of the various alcoholic drinks, which may constitute key information in the design of new public health policies. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Time trends in human fecundability in Sweden

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scheike, Thomas H; Rylander, Lars; Carstensen, Lisbeth

2008-01-01

,000 primiparous women 20 years of age and older in the nationwide Swedish Medical Birth Registry from 1983 through 2002. This age restriction led to an exclusion of 10% of primiparous pregnancies. Subfertility (TTP > or =1 year) was analyzed as a function of maternal age, calendar time at initiation of attempt...... increased with age, except that for women in their late 1930s, an apparent decrease was observed, particularly among the early cohorts. CONCLUSION: We found decreasing subfertility over time. We speculate that these patterns might be related to a Sweden-specific decrease over time in sexually transmitted...... diseases, to changes in sexual behavior induced by socioeconomic conditions, or to broader biologic or educational trends....

Exploring the determinants of secular decreases in dental caries among Korean children.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hye-Ju; Han, Dong-Hun

2015-08-01

The aim of this study was to determine the contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in dental caries from 2003 to 2010. Data were from three waves of the Korean National Oral Health Surveys between 2003 and 2010, including a total of 23 059 children (11 889 boys and 11 170 girls) aged 8, 10, and 12 years. The impacts of sealant and water fluoridation on dental caries were obtained by logistic regression for each age group of children. The contributions of sealant and water fluoridation to the time trends in the prevalence of dental caries were examined by a series of logistic regression models, and changes in the adjusted odds ratios for each survey year were also calculated. Over the past 7 years, the prevalence of dental caries decreased dramatically. Although sealant had a significant impact on dental caries in each survey year, remarkable decreases in dental caries from 2003 to 2010 were not explained by the secular changes in the dental sealant or water fluoridation factor. We observed important population declines in dental caries in Korea in children aged 8-12 years; however, the likely causes for these secular trends remain to be determined. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent changes in the trends of teen birth rates, 1981-2006.

Science.gov (United States)

Wingo, Phyllis A; Smith, Ruben A; Tevendale, Heather D; Ferré, Cynthia

2011-03-01

To explore trends in teen birth rates by selected demographics. We used birth certificate data and joinpoint regression to examine trends in teen birth rates by age (10-14, 15-17, and 18-19 years) and race during 1981-2006 and by age and Hispanic origin during 1990-2006. Joinpoint analysis describes changing trends over successive segments of time and uses annual percentage change (APC) to express the amount of increase or decrease within each segment. For teens younger than 18 years, the decline in birth rates began in 1994 and ended in 2003 (APC: -8.03% per year for ages 10-14 years; APC: -5.63% per year for ages 15-17 years). The downward trend for 18- and 19-year-old teens began earlier (1991) and ended 1 year later (2004) (APC: -2.37% per year). For each study population, the trend was approximately level during the most recent time segment, except for continuing declines for 18- and 19-year-old white and Asian/Pacific Islander teens. The only increasing trend in the most recent time segment was for 18- and 19-year-old Hispanic teens. During these declines, the age distribution of teens who gave birth shifted to slightly older ages, and the percentage whose current birth was at least their second birth decreased. Teen birth rates were generally level during 2003/2004-2006 after the long-term declines. Rates increased among older Hispanic teens. These results indicate a need for renewed attention to effective teen pregnancy prevention programs in specific populations. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Trends in congenital anomalies in Europe from 1980 to 2012

Science.gov (United States)

Springett, Anna L.; Greenlees, Ruth; Loane, Maria; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bergman, Jorieke E. H.; Csaky-Szunyogh, Melinda; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth S.; Garne, Ester; Gatt, Miriam; Khoshnood, Babak; Klungsoyr, Kari; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Robert; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J.; O'Mahony, Mary; Pierini, Anna; Queisser-Luft, Annette; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rankin, Judith; Rissmann, Anke; Kurinczuk, Jennifer; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; Wellesley, Diana; Dolk, Helen

2018-01-01

Background Surveillance of congenital anomalies is important to identify potential teratogens. Methods This study analysed the prevalence of 61 congenital anomaly subgroups (excluding chromosomal) in 25 population-based EUROCAT registries (1980–2012). Live births, fetal deaths and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly were analysed with multilevel random-effects Poisson regression models. Results Seventeen anomaly subgroups had statistically significant trends from 2003–2012; 12 increasing and 5 decreasing. Conclusions The annual increasing prevalence of severe congenital heart defects, single ventricle, atrioventricular septal defects and tetralogy of Fallot of 1.4% (95% CI: 0.7% to 2.0%), 4.6% (1.0% to 8.2%), 3.4% (1.3% to 5.5%) and 4.1% (2.4% to 5.7%) respectively may reflect increases in maternal obesity and diabetes (known risk factors). The increased prevalence of cystic adenomatous malformation of the lung [6.5% (3.5% to 9.4%)] and decreased prevalence of limb reduction defects [-2.8% (-4.2% to -1.5%)] are unexplained. For renal dysplasia and maternal infections, increasing trends may be explained by increased screening, and deceases in patent ductus arteriosus at term and increases in craniosynostosis, by improved follow up period after birth and improved diagnosis. For oesophageal atresia, duodenal atresia/stenosis and ano-rectal atresia/stenosis recent changes in prevalence appeared incidental when compared with larger long term fluctuations. For microcephaly and congenital hydronephrosis trends could not be interpreted due to discrepancies in diagnostic criteria. The trends for club foot and syndactyly disappeared once registries with disparate results were excluded. No decrease in neural tube defects was detected, despite efforts at prevention through folic acid supplementation. PMID:29621304

Stroke incidence and mortality trends in US communities, 1987 to 2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Koton, Silvia; Schneider, Andrea L C; Rosamond, Wayne D; Shahar, Eyal; Sang, Yingying; Gottesman, Rebecca F; Coresh, Josef

2014-07-16

Prior studies have shown decreases in stroke mortality over time, but data on validated stroke incidence and long-term trends by race are limited. To study trends in stroke incidence and subsequent mortality among black and white adults in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) cohort from 1987 to 2011. Prospective cohort study of 14,357 participants (282,097 person-years) free of stroke at baseline was facilitated in 4 different US communities. Participants were recruited for the purpose of studying all stroke hospitalizations and deaths and for collection of baseline information on cardiovascular risk factors (via interviews and physical examinations) in 1987-1989. Participants were followed up (via examinations, annual phone interviews, active surveillance of discharges from local hospitals, and linkage with the National Death Index) through December 31, 2011. The study physician reviewers adjudicated all possible strokes and classified them as definite or probable ischemic or hemorrhagic events. Trends in rates of first-ever stroke per 10 years of calendar time were estimated using Poisson regression incidence rate ratios (IRRs), with subsequent mortality analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models and hazard ratios (HRs) overall and by race, sex, and age divided at 65 years. Among 1051 (7%) participants with incident stroke, there were 929 with incident ischemic stroke and 140 with incident hemorrhagic stroke (18 participants had both during the study period). Crude incidence rates were 3.73 (95% CI, 3.51-3.96) per 1000 person-years for total stroke, 3.29 (95% CI, 3.08-3.50) per 1000 person-years for ischemic stroke, and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.41-0.57) per 1000 person-years for hemorrhagic stroke. Stroke incidence decreased over time in white and black participants (age-adjusted IRRs per 10-year period, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.66-0.87]; absolute decrease of 0.93 per 1000 person-years overall). The decrease in age-adjusted incidence was evident in

Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

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Maria de Fátima Marinho de Souza

2001-12-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

Social branding to decrease smoking among young adults in bars.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, Pamela M; Lee, Youn Ok; Hong, Juliette; Neilands, Torsten B; Jordan, Jeffrey W; Glantz, Stanton A

2014-04-01

We evaluated a Social Branding antitobacco intervention for "hipster" young adults that was implemented between 2008 and 2011 in San Diego, California. We conducted repeated cross-sectional surveys of random samples of young adults going to bars at baseline and over a 3-year follow-up. We used multinomial logistic regression to evaluate changes in daily smoking, nondaily smoking, and binge drinking, controlling for demographic characteristics, alcohol use, advertising receptivity, trend sensitivity, and tobacco-related attitudes. During the intervention, current (past 30 day) smoking decreased from 57% (baseline) to 48% (at follow-up 3; P = .002), and daily smoking decreased from 22% to 15% (P Branding campaigns are a promising strategy to decrease smoking in young adult bar patrons.

Recent Trends in the Ebro River Basin: Is It All "Just" Climate Change?

Science.gov (United States)

Lutz, Stefanie; Merz, Ralf

2016-04-01

Water resources are under pressure from a variety of stressors such as industry, agriculture, water abstraction or pollution. Changing climate can potentially enhance the impact of these stressors, especially under water scarcity conditions. The aim of the GLOBAQUA project ("Managing the effects of multiple stressors on aquatic ecosystems under water scarcity") is, therefore, to analyze the combined effect of multiple stressors in the context of increasing water scarcity. As part of the GLOBAQUA project, this study examines recent trends in climate, water quantity and quality parameters in the Ebro River Basin in Northern Spain to identify stressors and determine their joint impact on water resources. Mann-Kendall trend analyses of temperature, precipitation, streamflow, groundwater level, streamwater and groundwater quality data (spanning between 15 and 40 years) were performed. Moreover, anthropogenic pressures such as land use and alteration of natural flow by reservoirs were considered. Climate data indicate increasing temperatures in the Ebro River Basin especially in summer and autumn, and decreasing precipitation particularly in summer. In contrast, precipitation mostly shows upwards trends in autumn, but these are counterbalanced by greater evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Overall, this results in annual and seasonal streamflow decreases at the majority of gauging stations. Declining trends in streamflow are most pronounced during summer and are also observed in subbasins without reservoirs. Diminishing water resources become also apparent in generally decreasing groundwater levels in the Ebro River Basin. This decrease is most pronounced in areas where groundwater serves as main origin for irrigation water, which demonstrates how land use acts as a local rather than regional driver of change. Increasing air temperatures correlate with increasing water temperatures over the past 30 years, which indicates the effect of changing climate on water

Long-term citizen-collected data reveal geographical patterns and temporal trends in lake water clarity

Science.gov (United States)

Lottig, Noah R.; Wagner, Tyler; Henry, Emily N.; Cheruvelil, Kendra Spence; Webster, Katherine E.; Downing, John A.; Stow, Craig A.

2014-01-01

We compiled a lake-water clarity database using publically available, citizen volunteer observations made between 1938 and 2012 across eight states in the Upper Midwest, USA. Our objectives were to determine (1) whether temporal trends in lake-water clarity existed across this large geographic area and (2) whether trends were related to the lake-specific characteristics of latitude, lake size, or time period the lake was monitored. Our database consisted of >140,000 individual Secchi observations from 3,251 lakes that we summarized per lake-year, resulting in 21,020 summer averages. Using Bayesian hierarchical modeling, we found approximately a 1% per year increase in water clarity (quantified as Secchi depth) for the entire population of lakes. On an individual lake basis, 7% of lakes showed increased water clarity and 4% showed decreased clarity. Trend direction and strength were related to latitude and median sample date. Lakes in the southern part of our study-region had lower average annual summer water clarity, more negative long-term trends, and greater inter-annual variability in water clarity compared to northern lakes. Increasing trends were strongest for lakes with median sample dates earlier in the period of record (1938–2012). Our ability to identify specific mechanisms for these trends is currently hampered by the lack of a large, multi-thematic database of variables that drive water clarity (e.g., climate, land use/cover). Our results demonstrate, however, that citizen science can provide the critical monitoring data needed to address environmental questions at large spatial and long temporal scales. Collaborations among citizens, research scientists, and government agencies may be important for developing the data sources and analytical tools necessary to move toward an understanding of the factors influencing macro-scale patterns such as those shown here for lake water clarity.

HIV Trends in the United States: Diagnoses and Estimated Incidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, H Irene; Song, Ruiguang; Tang, Tian; An, Qian; Prejean, Joseph; Dietz, Patricia; Hernandez, Angela L; Green, Timothy; Harris, Norma; McCray, Eugene; Mermin, Jonathan

2017-02-03

The best indicator of the impact of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention programs is the incidence of infection; however, HIV is a chronic infection and HIV diagnoses may include infections that occurred years before diagnosis. Alternative methods to estimate incidence use diagnoses, stage of disease, and laboratory assays of infection recency. Using a consistent, accurate method would allow for timely interpretation of HIV trends. The objective of our study was to assess the recent progress toward reducing HIV infections in the United States overall and among selected population segments with available incidence estimation methods. Data on cases of HIV infection reported to national surveillance for 2008-2013 were used to compare trends in HIV diagnoses, unadjusted and adjusted for reporting delay, and model-based incidence for the US population aged ≥13 years. Incidence was estimated using a biomarker for recency of infection (stratified extrapolation approach) and 2 back-calculation models (CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models). HIV testing trends were determined from behavioral surveys for persons aged ≥18 years. Analyses were stratified by sex, race or ethnicity (black, Hispanic or Latino, and white), and transmission category (men who have sex with men, MSM). On average, HIV diagnoses decreased 4.0% per year from 48,309 in 2008 to 39,270 in 2013 (Pyear (Pyears, overall, the percentage of persons who ever had received an HIV test or had had a test within the past year remained stable; among MSM testing increased. For women, all 3 incidence models corroborated the decreasing trend in HIV diagnoses, and HIV diagnoses and 2 incidence models indicated decreases among blacks and whites. The CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical models, but not the stratified extrapolation approach, indicated decreases in incidence among MSM. HIV diagnoses and CD4 and Bayesian hierarchical model estimates indicated decreases in HIV incidence overall, among both sexes and all

Evaluating the Consistency of the 1982–1999 NDVI Trends in the Iberian Peninsula across Four Time-series Derived from the AVHRR Sensor: LTDR, GIMMS, FASIR, and PAL-II

Science.gov (United States)

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Liras, Elisa; Tabik, Siham; Paruelo, José; Cabello, Javier

2010-01-01

Successive efforts have processed the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensor archive to produce Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) datasets (i.e., PAL, FASIR, GIMMS, and LTDR) under different corrections and processing schemes. Since NDVI datasets are used to evaluate carbon gains, differences among them may affect nations’ carbon budgets in meeting international targets (such as the Kyoto Protocol). This study addresses the consistency across AVHRR NDVI datasets in the Iberian Peninsula (Spain and Portugal) by evaluating whether their 1982–1999 NDVI trends show similar spatial patterns. Significant trends were calculated with the seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test and their spatial consistency with partial Mantel tests. Over 23% of the Peninsula (N, E, and central mountain ranges) showed positive and significant NDVI trends across the four datasets and an additional 18% across three datasets. In 20% of Iberia (SW quadrant), the four datasets exhibited an absence of significant trends and an additional 22% across three datasets. Significant NDVI decreases were scarce (croplands in the Guadalquivir and Segura basins, La Mancha plains, and Valencia). Spatial consistency of significant trends across at least three datasets was observed in 83% of the Peninsula, but it decreased to 47% when comparing across the four datasets. FASIR, PAL, and LTDR were the most spatially similar datasets, while GIMMS was the most different. The different performance of each AVHRR dataset to detect significant NDVI trends (e.g., LTDR detected greater significant trends (both positive and negative) and in 32% more pixels than GIMMS) has great implications to evaluate carbon budgets. The lack of spatial consistency across NDVI datasets derived from the same AVHRR sensor archive, makes it advisable to evaluate carbon gains trends using several satellite datasets and, whether possible, independent/additional data sources to contrast. PMID:22205868

Incidence rates and trends of hip/femur fractures in five European countries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Requena, G; Abbing-Karahagopian, V; Huerta, C

2014-01-01

Hip fractures represent a major public health challenge worldwide. Multinational studies using a common methodology are scarce. We aimed to estimate the incidence rates (IRs) and trends of hip/femur fractures over the period 2003-2009 in five European countries. The study was performed using seven......, P European countries. With the exception of Denmark, no decreasing trend was observed over the study period....

Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Iqra Atif

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The Upper Indus basin (UIB is characterized by contrasting hydrometeorological behaviors; therefore, it has become pertinent to understand hydrometeorological trends at the sub-watershed level. Many studies have investigated the snow cover and hydrometeorological modeling at basin level but none have reported the spatial variability of trends and their magnitude at a sub-basin level. This study was conducted to analyze the trends in the contrasting hydrological regimes of the snow and glacier-fed river catchments of the Hunza and Astore sub-basins of the UIB. Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope methods were used to study the main trends and their magnitude using MODIS snow cover information (2001–2015 and hydrometeorological data. The results showed that in the Hunza basin, the river discharge and temperature were significantly (p ≤ 0.05 decreased with a Sen’s slope value of −2.541 m3·s−1·year−1 and −0.034 °C·year−1, respectively, while precipitation data showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05 increasing trend with a Sen’s slope value of 0.023 mm·year−1. In the Astore basin, the river discharge and precipitation are increasing significantly (p ≤ 0.05 with a Sen’s slope value of 1.039 m3·s−1·year−1 and 0.192 mm·year−1, respectively. The snow cover analysis results suggest that the Western Himalayas (the Astore basin had a stable trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.07% year−1 and the Central Karakoram region (the Hunza River basin shows a slightly increasing trend with a Sen’s slope of 0.394% year−1. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that since both sub-basins are influenced by different climatological systems (monsoon and westerly, the results of those studies that treat the Upper Indus basin as one unit in hydrometeorological modeling should be used with caution. Furthermore, it is suggested that similar studies at the sub-basin level of the UIB will help in a better understanding of the

Applying of modern development trends in the firm of the world class

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Teplická Katarína

2004-06-01

Full Text Available The main goal all the world is situated to the nature of the excellent firm. The global business is orientated to increase the quality of product, to decrease the costs in the firm, to rise productivity, to reduce times between order and delivery et cetera. Every firm can obtain those conditions by a new trends on business. The implementation of the modern trends brings a lots advantages for the firm, that the firm becomes competitveable on the global business. This paper decribes the new modern trends which are used on business today.

Temporal trend analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Need, E.A.

1994-01-01

Statistical analysis of RCRA groundwater monitoring data at a uranium hexafluoride processing facility showed a statistically significant increase in the concentration of gross beta activity in monitor wells downgradient of surface impounds storing calcium fluoride sludge and high pH water. Because evidence of leakage had not been detected in lysimeters installed beneath the impounds, the operator sought an evaluation of other potential causes of the result, including natural variability. This study determined that all five data sets showed either long-term excursionary (spike-like), or seasonal forms of temporal variation. Gross beta had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that almost appeared to be seasonal. Gross alpha had an upward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Specific conductance had both upward and downward long-term trends but no other variations. pH had a downward long-term trend with multiple excursions that were clearly not seasonal. Fluoride had a downward long-term trend without excursions but with clear seasonal variations. The gross beta result that appeared to be a significant change was a spike event on the upward long-term trend

Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis

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Michal Engelman

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Variation in lifespan has followed strikingly different trends for the young and old: while overall lifespan variability has decreased as life expectancy at birth has risen, the variability conditional on survival to older ages has increased. These diverging trends reflect changes in the underlying demographic parameters determining age-specific mortality. Objective: We ask why the variation in the adult ages at death has followed a different trend than the variation at younger ages, and aim to explain the diverging patterns in terms of historical changes in the age schedule of mortality. Methods: Using simulations, we show that the empirical trends in lifespan variation are well characterized using the Siler model, which describes the mortality hazard across the full lifespan using functions representing early-life, later-life, and background mortality. We then obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the Siler parameters over time. Finally, we express lifespan variation in terms of a Markov chain model, and apply matrix calculus perturbation analysis to compute the sensitivity of age-specific lifespan variance trends to the changing Siler model parameters. Results: Our analysis produces a detailed quantification of the impact of changing demographic parameters on the pattern of lifespan variability at all ages, highlighting the impact of declining childhood mortality on the reduction of lifespan variability and the impact of improved survival in adulthood on the rising variability of lifespans at older ages. Conclusions: These findings provide insight into the dynamic relationship between the age pattern of survival improvements and time trends in lifespan variability.

Trends and risk factors of hyperglycemia and diabetes among Kuwaiti adults: National Nutrition Surveillance Data from 2002 to 2009

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Faruk

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Current prevalence estimates for diabetes in Arabian Gulf countries are some of the world’s highest, yet regional trends and contributing factors are poorly documented. The present study was designed to determine temporal changes in the prevalence of impaired fasting glucose (IFG and diabetes and associated factors in Kuwaiti adults. Methods Data analysis from the nationally representative cross-sectional Kuwait National Nutrition Surveillance System. 2745 males and 3611 females, aged 20–69 years, attending registration for employment or pensions and Hajj Pilgrimage health check-ups or accompanying children for immunizations from 2002 through 2009 were participated. Socio-demographic and lifestyle information, height and weight, and blood samples were collected. Results During the 8 years (2002–09, prevalences of IFG in males and females decreased by 7.4% and 6.8% and of diabetes by 9.8% and 8.9% in males and females, respectively. Linear regression for blood glucose level with time, adjusted for age, BMI, blood cholesterol and education level, showed a greater decrease in males than females (1.12 vs 0.93 mmol/L; males also showed an increase in 2002–2003 followed by a marked decrease in 2006–2007 while females showed a significant decrease in 2008–2009. Both males and females showed the largest decrease in the 2nd half of the study accounting for the majority of the overall decrease (1.13 mmol/L for males and 0.87 mmol/l for females for the 4 years. Compared with 2002–03, the OR for IFG in males decreased with time, and becoming significantly lower (OR=0.32; 95% CI: 0.21-0.49 for 2008–09. In females, the OR for IFG decreased significantly with time, except in 2006–07. Similarly, the OR for diabetes in males decreased to 0.34 (95% CI: 0.24-0.49 and in females to 0.33 (95% CI: 0.22-0.50 in 2008–09. For both genders, age and BMI were independently positively associated with IFG and diabetes, while education

Recent trends in the surgical management of primary vesicoureteral reflux in the era of dextranomer/hyaluronic acid.

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Herbst, Katherine W; Corbett, Sean T; Lendvay, Thomas S; Caldamone, Anthony A

2014-05-01

Since its inception as a technology in the United States, endoscopic correction of vesicoureteral reflux has become a popular treatment option in children with vesicoureteral reflux with reported wide use. We determined whether the increasing trend in use in the United States after the introduction of dextranomer/hyaluronic acid has been sustained. We abstracted data on pediatric patients treated with ureteral reimplantation or dextranomer/hyaluronic acid intervention for vesicoureteral reflux from 2004 to 2011 from the PHIS (Pediatric Health Information System) database. Patients with coding data indicating diagnoses other than primary vesicoureteral reflux and hospitals reporting less than 80% of ambulatory surgery cases by CPT code were excluded from study. We identified 14,430 patients (17,826 procedures), of whom 49% underwent reimplantation and 51% underwent dextranomer/hyaluronic acid injection. Of the patients 83% were female with a median age at surgery of 4.7 years (IQR 2.5-7.2). Linear regression showed a significant downward trend in the average total number of antireflux operations per institution during the study period. This was attributable to a decrease in the average rate of dextranomer/hyaluronic acid interventions because the average reimplantation rate remained stable during this time. At freestanding pediatric hospitals enrolled in the PHIS database there is a trend toward decreasing intervention for primary vesicoureteral reflux, which appears to be due to decreased use of injection therapy. This may reflect a philosophical change in reflux management by injection therapy. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Five-year decreased incidence of surgical site infections following gastrectomy and prosthetic joint replacement surgery through active surveillance by the Korean Nosocomial Infection Surveillance System.

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Choi, H J; Adiyani, L; Sung, J; Choi, J Y; Kim, H B; Kim, Y K; Kwak, Y G; Yoo, H; Lee, Sang-Oh; Han, S H; Kim, S R; Kim, T H; Lee, H M; Chun, H K; Kim, J-S; Yoo, J D; Koo, H-S; Cho, E H; Lee, K W

2016-08-01

Surveillance of healthcare-associated infection has been associated with a reduction in surgical site infection (SSI). To evaluate the Korean Nosocomial Infection Surveillance System (KONIS) in order to assess its effects on SSI since it was introduced. SSI data after gastrectomy, total hip arthroplasty (THA), and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) between 2008 and 2012 were analysed. The pooled incidence of SSI was calculated for each year; the same analyses were also conducted from hospitals that had participated in KONIS for at least three consecutive years. Standardized SSI rates for each year were calculated by adjusting for SSI risk factors. SSI trends were analysed using the Cochran-Armitage test. The SSI rate following gastrectomy was 3.12% (522/16,918). There was a significant trend of decreased crude SSI rates over five years. This trend was also evident in analysis of hospitals that had participated for more than three years. The SSI rate for THA was 2.05% (157/7656), which decreased significantly from 2008 to 2012. The risk factors for SSI after THA included the National Nosocomial Infections Surveillance risk index, trauma, reoperation, and age (60-69 years). The SSI rate for TKA was 1.90% (152/7648), which also decreased significantly during a period of five years. However, the risk-adjusted analysis of SSI did not show a significant decrease for all surgical procedures. The SSI incidence of gastrectomy and prosthetic joint replacement declined over five years as a result of active surveillance by KONIS. Copyright © 2016 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prevalence and Trends of Metabolic Syndrome in Slovakia during the Period of 2003-2012.

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Ostrihoňová, Tímea; Rimárová, Kvetoslava; Bérešová, Janka; Kontrošová, Silvia; Dorko, Erik; Diabelková, Jana

2017-12-01

Metabolic syndrome is a combination of clinical risk factors for cardiovascular disease as well as for diabetes. Metabolic syndrome arises from insulin resistance accompanied with abnormal adipose deposition. The aim of our cross-sectional time trends study was to characterize the prevalence of metabolic syndrome and its five risk determinants among the clients of Health Advice Centres of Regional Public Health Authorities in Slovakia. The study was stratified by gender and age groups during the 10 year period from 2003–2012. Prevalence data were estimated in adults and children (≥10 years, N=79,904) from the nationwide electronic database of Health Advice Centres of Regional Public Health Authorities in Slovak Republic "Test of healthy heart" from 2003 to 2012. The overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 30.2% in males and 26.6% in females, abdominal obesity was confirmed in 48.3% of males and 53.9% of females. Increased triglyceride level has higher prevalence among males (33.3%) compared to females (24.2%). Blood pressure (BP) values and fasting glucose values were significantly higher in males (58.2%) than females (41.9%). During the 10 year period from 2003 to 2012, we confirmed an increased trend in the age-adjusted prevalence of metabolic syndrome. Abdominal obesity and elevated triglycerides had also increased time trends prevalence in both sexes. The prevalence of people without risk determinants of metabolic syndrome had a time decreasing trend. A surprising finding is a decrease in the proportion of persons with suboptimal HDL-cholesterol. The proportion of people with elevated BP and glucose showed little change during the reporting period. The increasing prevalence of metabolic syndrome, abdominal obesity, and elevated triglycerides highlights the urgency of addressing these health problems as a healthcare priority to reduce cardiovascular mortality in the Slovak Republic. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

The Alpha value decrease when the annual individual effective dose decreases?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sordi, Gian M.; Marchiusi, Thiago; Sousa, Jefferson de J.

2008-01-01

A recent IAEA publication tells that a few entities took different alpha values for maxima individual doses. Beyond to disregard the international agencies, that recommend only one alpha value for each country, the alpha values decreases when the individual doses decreases and the practice happens exactly the conversely as we will show in this paper. We will prove that the alpha value increase when the maximum individual doses decreases in a four different manner. The first one we call the theoretical conception and it is linked to the emergent of the ALARA policy and to the purpose that led to the 3/10 of the annual limits, for to decrease the individual doses as a first resort and a 1/10 as a last resort. The second prove will be based in a small mine example used in the ICRP publication number 55 concerning to the optimization and the quantitative decision-aiding techniques in radiological protection where we will determine the alpha value ranges in which each radiological protection options becomes the analytical solution. The third prove will be based in the determination of the optimized thickness example of a plane shielding for a radiation source exposed in the ICRP publication number 37. We will use, also, the numerical example provided there. Eventually, as four prove we will show that the alpha value dos not only increases with the maximum individual dose decrease, but also, with the shielding geometry. (author)

Trends in admissions, morbidity and outcomes at Red Cross War Memorial Children’s Hospital, Cape Town, 2004 - 2013

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Y Isaacs-Long

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Background. Routinely collected patient information has the potential to yield valuable information about health systems and population health, but there have been few comprehensive analyses of paediatric admissions at South African (SA hospitals. Objectives. To investigate trends in hospitalisation and outcomes at Red Cross War Memorial Children’s Hospital (RCWMCH, a major referral hospital for children in the Western Cape and SA. Methods. Using routinely collected observational health data from the hospital informatics system, we investigated admissions between 2004 and 2013. Clinical classification software was used to group International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision (ICD-10 codes to rank causes during 2008 - 2013, when ICD-10 codes were widely available. Analyses examined trends in medical and surgical admissions over time. Results. There were 215 536 admissions over 10 years of 129 733 patients. Admissions increased by 9.3%, with increases in the general medical wards (5%, medical specialty wards (74%, the burns unit (73%, and the intensive care unit (16%. In contrast, admissions decreased in the trauma unit (21% and short-stay medical wards (1%. In-hospital mortality decreased by 54% (p-trend <0.001 over 10 years. Diarrhoea and lower-respiratory tract illness were the most common causes for medical admissions, although admissions and deaths due to these conditions decreased between 2008 and 2013, which coincided with the national introduction of related vaccines. Similarly, tuberculosis admissions and deaths decreased over this period. These trends could be owing to a concurrent decrease in HIV comorbidity (p-trend <0.001. Trauma was the most common reason for surgical admission. Conclusion. Paediatric in-hospital mortality decreased consistently over a decade, despite an overall increase in admissions. Pneumonia and diarrhoea admissions decreased markedly over a 6-year period, but

Spatial analyses of mono, di and trinucleotide trends in plant genes.

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Andrea Porceddu

Full Text Available Genomic DNA sequences display compositional heterogeneity on many scales. In this paper we analyzed tendencies and anomalies in the occurence of mono, di and trinucleotides in structural regions of plant genes. Representation of these trends as a function of position along genic sequences highlighted compositional features peculiar of either monocots or eudicots that were remarkably uniform within these two evolutionary clades. The most evident of these features appeared in the form of gradient of base content along the direction of transcription. The robustness of such a representation was validated in sequences sub-datasets generated considering structural and compositional features such as total length of cds, overall GC content and genic orientation in the genome. Piecewise regression analyses indicated that the gradients could be conveniently approximated to a two segmented model where a first region featuring a steep slope is followed by a second segment fitting a milder variation. In general, monocots species showed steeper segments than eudicots. The guanine gradient was the most distinctive feature between the two evolutionary clades, being moderately increasing in eudicots and firmly decreasing in monocots. Single gene investigation revealed that a high proportion of genes show compositional trends compatible with a segmented model suggesting that these features are essential attributes of gene organization. Dinucleotide and trinucleotide biases were referred to expectation based on a random union of the component elements. The average bias at dinucleotide level identified a significant undererpresentation of some dinucleotide and the overrepresention of others. The bias at trinucleotide level was on average low. Finally, the analysis of bryophyte coding sequences showed mononucleotide, dinucleotide and trinucleotide compositional trends resembling those of higher plants. This finding suggested that the emergenge of compositional bias

Estimating linear temporal trends from aggregated environmental monitoring data

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Erickson, Richard A.; Gray, Brian R.; Eager, Eric A.

2017-01-01

Trend estimates are often used as part of environmental monitoring programs. These trends inform managers (e.g., are desired species increasing or undesired species decreasing?). Data collected from environmental monitoring programs is often aggregated (i.e., averaged), which confounds sampling and process variation. State-space models allow sampling variation and process variations to be separated. We used simulated time-series to compare linear trend estimations from three state-space models, a simple linear regression model, and an auto-regressive model. We also compared the performance of these five models to estimate trends from a long term monitoring program. We specifically estimated trends for two species of fish and four species of aquatic vegetation from the Upper Mississippi River system. We found that the simple linear regression had the best performance of all the given models because it was best able to recover parameters and had consistent numerical convergence. Conversely, the simple linear regression did the worst job estimating populations in a given year. The state-space models did not estimate trends well, but estimated population sizes best when the models converged. We found that a simple linear regression performed better than more complex autoregression and state-space models when used to analyze aggregated environmental monitoring data.

A bibliometric study on SCRUM approach: patterns, trends and gaps

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Antônio Carlos Bonassa

2016-09-01

Full Text Available After Agile Manifesto success in the software development arena, the literature on Agile methods, particularly SCRUM has increased. This study aims to present a systematic literature review of SCRUM literature, identifying the main evolution patterns, trends, and gaps. The research methods combine the bibliometric approach with content analysis. The results show that despite the increase interesting on agile methods, SCRUM utilization is decreasing and/or being replaced by another project management method and it face so strong barriers to expanding in other sectors than software. The main advantages of applying SCRUM pointed out in the review are increase customer satisfaction at the same time that reduced associated costs and development time.

Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

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Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H

2004-07-01

This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O{sub X} (sum O{sub 3} of and NO{sub 2}) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative

Trends of Ozone in Switzerland since 1992 (TROZOS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ordonez, C.; Mathis, H.; Furger, M.; Prevot, A.S.H.

2004-07-01

This work reports on the trends of the daily afternoon (noon to midnight) maximum ozone concentrations at 15 of the 16 stations of the Swiss air quality monitoring network (NABEL) during the period 1992-2002. The use of numerous meteorological parameters and additional data allowed a detailed seasonal analysis of the influence of the weather on the ozone maxima at the different stations. An analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) was performed separately for each station and season in order to detect the parameters which best explain the variability of the daily ozone maximum concentrations. During the warm seasons (summer and spring) the most explanatory parameters are those related to the ozone production, in particular the afternoon temperature. In winter, the most explanatory variables are the ones influencing the vertical mixing and thus the ozone destruction by titration with NO and dry deposition, like the afternoon global radiation. The trends of both the measured and meteorologically corrected ozone maxima were calculated. The year-to-year variability in the ozone maxima was lowered by a factor of 3 by the meteorological correction. Significantly positive trends of corrected ozone maxima of 0.3 - 1.1 ppb/year were found at the low altitude stations in winter and autumn as well as at Lausanne - urban station - in all the seasons, mainly due to the lower loss of ozone by reaction with NO as a consequence of the decreased emissions of primary pollutants during the 90s. This could be partially confirmed by the lower trends of O X (sum O 3 of and NO 2 ) maxima compared to the trends in ozone maxima. The absence of negative trends of the median or mean ozone maxima north of the Alps in summer suggests that the decrease in the emissions of ozone precursors did not have a strong impact on the afternoon maximum ozone concentrations during the last decade. In contrast to the project TOSS (Trends of Ozone in Southern Switzerland), no significantly negative trends of ozone

Trends of some wintering waterbirds in Lazio (1993-2006

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Massimo Brunelli

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Since the 90s, censuses of wintering waterfowl have been carried out in the main wetlands of Lazio. We analysed the trends of 31 species in the 1993-2006 period (base year 1993 by means of TRIM (Trends and Indices Monitoring data software (Model 3. Among the species regularly recorded in the region, Ardea alba, Ardea cinerea, Bubulcus ibis and Anser anser showed a strong increase; Podiceps cristatus, Nycticorax nycticorax, Egretta garzetta, Phoenicopterus ruber, Anas penelope, Anas strepera, Anas crecca, Anas platyrhynchos, Anas clypeata, Netta rufina, Aythya ferina, Aythya nyroca, Circus aeruginosus, Fulica atra, Pluvialis apricaria and Vanellus vanellus showed a moderate increase; Gavia arctica, Tachybaptus ruficollis, Podiceps nigricollis, Phalacrocorax carbo, Aythya fuligula and Numenius arquata resulted “stable”; Botaurus stellaris, Tadorna tadorna, Anas acuta, Pluvialis squatarola and Calidris alpina showed an uncertain trend. The trends for most species are similar to those recorded at a national level.

20 year long term air quality trends in Israel

Science.gov (United States)

Luria, M.

2017-12-01

The Israeli air monitoring network was established in the mid 1990's with dozens of measuring sites near most populated areas. During these past 20 years the Israel economy has increased significantly. The population grew by 30%, energy consumption and power generation by more than 40% and the number of motor vehicles increased by nearly 50%. Most of the fossil energy is consumed by the electric power industry that has changed immensely during this period. Until the early 2000's the vast majority of the electricity was generated from coal and heavy oil. However, during the last ten years natural gas has gradually becomes the major source for power generation and for most of the heavy industry. In the present study we examined the impact of these economic trends on the major criteria air pollution parameters; O3, NOx, SO2 and PM10. The analyses was based on the long term trend of median value (50th percentile) and the 90th percentile. The results revealed that SO2 levels throughout the country decreased to very low levels, with the 90th percentile near the detection limit. The levels of PM10, that are relatively high compare with other global regions, did not show any trend during the 20 year period. This is consistent with the fact that most particulate matter results from long range transport of dust from the surrounding deserts. The long term trend of NOx indicates a gradual and steady increase at most measuring sites, which is consistent with the increase of fossil fuel consumption. The increase in NOx levels is most likely the cause for the significant increase in O3 levels found at most sites in a few of them to levels that are considered as an environmental hazard.

Trends in Ocean Colour and Chlorophyll Concentration from 1889 to 2000, Worldwide

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Wernand, Marcel R.; van der Woerd, Hendrik J.; Gieskes, Winfried W. C.

2013-01-01

Marine primary productivity is an important agent in the global cycling of carbon dioxide, a major ‘greenhouse gas’, and variations in the concentration of the ocean's phytoplankton biomass can therefore explain trends in the global carbon budget. Since the launch of satellite-mounted sensors globe-wide monitoring of chlorophyll, a phytoplankton biomass proxy, became feasible. Just as satellites, the Forel-Ule (FU) scale record (a hardly explored database of ocean colour) has covered all seas and oceans – but already since 1889. We provide evidence that changes of ocean surface chlorophyll can be reconstructed with confidence from this record. The EcoLight radiative transfer numerical model indicates that the FU index is closely related to chlorophyll concentrations in open ocean regions. The most complete FU record is that of the North Atlantic in terms of coverage over space and in time; this dataset has been used to test the validity of colour changes that can be translated to chlorophyll. The FU and FU-derived chlorophyll data were analysed for monotonously increasing or decreasing trends with the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, a method to establish the presence of a consistent trend. Our analysis has not revealed a globe-wide trend of increase or decrease in chlorophyll concentration during the past century; ocean regions have apparently responded differentially to changes in meteorological, hydrological and biological conditions at the surface, including potential long-term trends related to global warming. Since 1889, chlorophyll concentrations have decreased in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific; increased in the Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean, the Chinese Sea, and in the seas west and north-west of Japan. This suggests that explanations of chlorophyll changes over long periods should focus on hydrographical and biological characteristics typical of single ocean regions, not on those of ‘the’ ocean. PMID:23776435

The Geomagnetic Control Concept of The Ionospheric Long- Term Trends

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Mikhailov, A. V.

The geomagnetic control concept has been developed to explain long-term trends of the electron concentration in the F2 and E ionospheric regions. Periods with negative and positive foF2, hmF2 and foE trends correspond to the periods of increasing or decreasing geomagnetic activity with the turning points around the end of 1950s, 1960s, and 1980s where trends change their signs. Strong latitudinal and diurnal variations revealed for the foF2 and hmF2 trends can be explained by neutral composition, temperature and thermospheric wind changes. Particle precipitation is important in the auroral zone. The newly proposed concept proceeds from a natural origin of the F2-layer trends rather than an artificial one related to the greenhouse effect. Using the proposed method a very long-term foF2 and foE trends related with general increase of geomagnetic activity in the 20th century has been revealed for the first time. The firstly revealed relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity is due to nitric oxide variations at the E-region heights. This "natural" relationship of the foE trends with geomagnetic activity breaks down around 1970 on many stations presumably due to chemical polution of the upper atmosphere. The increasing rate of rocket and satellite launchings in the late 1960s is considered as a reason.

World energy use in 2010: over 5% growth. Energy markets have combined crisis recovery and strong industry dynamism. Enerdata analyses the trends in energy demand, based on its 2010 data for G20 countries. May 5, 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Energy markets have combined crisis recovery and strong industry dynamism. Analysis of the energy consumption in 2010 of major countries by Enerdata, based on our global energy database. Energy consumption in the G20 soared by more than 5% in 2010, after the slight decrease of 2009. This strong increase is the result of two converging trends. On the one-hand, industrialized countries, which experienced sharp decreases in energy demand in 2009, recovered firmly in 2010, almost coming back to historical trends. Oil, gas, coal, and electricity markets followed the same trend. On the other hand, China and India, which showed no signs of slowing down in 2009, continued their intense demand for all forms of energy. (authors)

Extent of Night Warming and Spatially Heterogeneous Cloudiness Differentiate Temporal Trend of Greenness in Mountainous Tropics in the New Century.

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Yu, Mei; Gao, Qiong; Gao, Chunxiao; Wang, Chao

2017-01-25

Tropical forests have essential functions in global C dynamics but vulnerable to changes in land cover land use (LCLUC) and climate. The tropics of Caribbean are experiencing warming and drying climate and diverse LCLUC. However, large-scale studies to detect long-term trends of C and mechanisms behind are still rare. Using MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), we investigated greenness trend in the Greater Antilles Caribbean during 2000-2015, and analyzed trend of vegetation patches without LCLUC to give prominence to climate impacts. We hypothesized that night warming and heavy cloudiness would reduce EVI in this mountainous tropical region. Over the 15 years, EVI decreased significantly in Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Puerto Rico, but increased in Cuba partly due to its strong reforestation. Haiti had the largest decreasing trend because of continuous deforestation for charcoals. After LCLUC was excluded, EVI trend still varied greatly, decreasing in the windward but increasing in the leeward of Puerto Rico. Nighttime warming reinforced by spatially heterogeneous cloudiness was found to significantly and negatively correlate with EVI trend, and explained the spatial pattern of the latter. Although cooled daytime and increased rainfall might enhance EVI, nighttime warming dominated the climate impacts and differentiated the EVI trend.

Sulfur dioxide emissions in China and sulfur trends in East Asia since 2000

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Z. Lu

2010-07-01

Full Text Available With the rapid development of the economy, the sulfur dioxide (SO₂ emission from China since 2000 is of increasing concern. In this study, we estimate the annual SO₂ emission in China after 2000 using a technology-based methodology specifically for China. From 2000 to 2006, total SO₂ emission in China increased by 53%, from 21.7 Tg to 33.2 Tg, at an annual growth rate of 7.3%. Emissions from power plants are the main sources of SO₂ in China and they increased from 10.6 Tg to 18.6 Tg in the same period. Geographically, emission from north China increased by 85%, whereas that from the south increased by only 28%. The emission growth rate slowed around 2005, and emissions began to decrease after 2006 mainly due to the wide application of flue-gas desulfurization (FGD devices in power plants in response to a new policy of China's government. This paper shows that the trend of estimated SO₂ emission in China is consistent with the trends of SO₂ concentration and acid rain pH and frequency in China, as well as with the increasing trends of background SO₂ and sulfate concentration in East Asia. A longitudinal gradient in the percentage change of urban SO₂ concentration in Japan is found during 2000–2007, indicating that the decrease of urban SO₂ is lower in areas close to the Asian continent. This implies that the transport of increasing SO₂ from the Asian continent partially counteracts the local reduction of SO₂ emission downwind. The aerosol optical depth (AOD products of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS are found to be highly correlated with the surface solar radiation (SSR measurements in East Asia. Using MODIS AOD data as a surrogate of SSR, we found that China and East Asia excluding Japan underwent a continuous dimming after 2000, which is in line with the dramatic increase in SO₂ emission in

Diurnal temperature range trend over North Carolina and the associated mechanisms

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Sayemuzzaman, Mohammad; Mekonnen, Ademe; Jha, Manoj K.

2015-06-01

This study seeks to investigate the variability and presence of trend in the diurnal surface air temperature range (DTR) over North Carolina (NC) for the period 1950-2009. The significance trend test and the magnitude of trends were determined using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and the Theil-Sen approach, respectively. Statewide significant trends (p < 0.05) of decreasing DTR were found in all seasons and annually during the analysis period. Highest (lowest) temporal DTR trends of magnitude - 0.19 (- 0.031) °C/decade were found in summer (winter). Potential mechanisms for the presence/absence of trend in DTR have been highlighted. Historical data sets of the three main moisture components (precipitation, total cloud cover (TCC), and soil moisture) and the two major atmospheric circulation modes (North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Oscillation) were used for correlation analysis. The DTRs were found to be negatively correlated with the precipitation, TCC and soil moisture across the state for all the seasons and annual basis. It appears that the moisture components related better to the DTR than to the atmospheric circulation modes.

The role of diet on long-term concentration and pattern trends of brominated and chlorinated contaminants in western Hudson Bay polar bears, 1991-2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKinney, Melissa A.; Stirling, Ian; Lunn, Nick J.; Peacock, Elizabeth; Letcher, Robert J.

2010-01-01

Adipose tissue was sampled from the western Hudson Bay (WHB) subpopulation of polar bears at intervals from 1991 to 2007 to examine temporal trends of PCB and OCP levels both on an individual and sum-(Σ-)contaminant basis. We also determined levels and temporal trends of emerging polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD), polybrominated biphenyls (PBBs) and other current-use brominated flame retardants. Over the 17-year period, Σ DDT (and p,p'-DDE, p,p'-DDD, p,p'-DDT) decreased (-8.4%/year); α-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) decreased (-11%/year); β-HCH increased (+ 8.3%/year); and Σ PCB and Σ chlordane (CHL), both contaminants at highest concentrations in all years (> 1 ppm), showed no distinct trends even when compared to previous data for this subpopulation dating back to 1968. Some of the less persistent PCB congeners decreased significantly (-1.6%/year to -6.3%/year), whereas CB153 levels tended to increase (+ 3.3%/year). Parent CHLs (c-nonachlor, t-nonachlor) declined, whereas non-monotonic trends were detected for metabolites (heptachlor epoxide, oxychlordane). Σ chlorobenzene, octachlorostyrene, Σ mirex, Σ MeSO 2 -PCB and dieldrin did not significantly change. Increasing Σ PBDE levels (+ 13%/year) matched increases in the four consistently detected congeners, BDE47, BDE99, BDE100 and BDE153. Although no trend was observed, total-(α)-HBCD was only detected post-2000. Levels of the highest concentration brominated contaminant, BB153, showed no temporal change. As long-term ecosystem changes affecting contaminant levels may also affect contaminant patterns, we examined the influence of year (i.e., aging or 'weathering' of the contaminant pattern), dietary tracers (carbon stable isotope ratios, fatty acid patterns) and biological (age/sex) group on congener/metabolite profiles. Patterns of PCBs, CHLs and PBDEs were correlated with dietary tracers and biological group, but only PCB and CHL patterns were correlated with year

Trends of reactive hyperaemia responses to repetitive loading on skin tissue of rats - Implications for pressure ulcer prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Yapp, Jong-Heng; Kamil, Raja; Rozi, M; Mohtarrudin, Norhafizah; Loqman, M Y; Ezamin, A R; Ahmad, Siti Anom; Abu Bakar, Zuki

2017-08-01

Tissue recovery is important in preventing tissue deterioration, which is induced by pressure and may lead to pressure ulcers (PU). Reactive hyperaemia (RH) is an indicator used to identify people at risk of PU. In this study, the effect of different recovery times on RH trend is investigated during repetitive loading. Twenty-one male Sprague-Dawley rats (seven per group), with body weight of 385-485 g, were categorised into three groups and subjected to different recovery times with three repetitive loading cycles. The first, second, and third groups were subjected to short (3 min), moderate (10 min), and prolonged (40 min) recovery, respectively, while fixed loading time and pressure (10 min and 50 mmHg, respectively). Peak hyperaemia was measured in the three cycles to determine trends associated with different recovery times. Three RH trends (increasing, decreasing, and inconsistent) were observed. As the recovery time is increased (3 min vs. 10 min vs. 40 min), the number of samples with increasing RH trend decreases (57% vs. 29% vs. 14%) and the number of samples with inconsistent RH trend increases (29% vs. 57% vs. 72%). All groups consists of one sample with decreasing RH trend (14%). Results confirm that different recovery times affect the RH trend during repetitive loading. The RH trend may be used to determine the sufficient recovery time of an individual to avoid PU development. Copyright © 2017 Tissue Viability Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

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Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

2016-01-01

Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

Trends in racial disparities for asthma outcomes among children 0 to 17 years, 2001-2010.

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Akinbami, Lara J; Moorman, Jeanne E; Simon, Alan E; Schoendorf, Kenneth C

2014-09-01

Racial disparities in childhood asthma have been a long-standing target for intervention, especially disparities in hospitalization and mortality. Describe trends in racial disparities in asthma outcomes using both traditional population-based rates and at-risk rates (based on the estimated number of children with asthma) to account for prevalence differences between race groups. Estimates of asthma prevalence and outcomes (emergency department [ED] visits, hospitalizations, and deaths) were calculated from national data for 2001 to 2010 for black and white children. Trends were calculated using weighted loglinear regression, and changes in racial disparities over time were assessed using Joinpoint. Disparities in asthma prevalence between black and white children increased from 2001 to 2010; at the end of this period, black children were twice as likely as white children to have asthma. Population-based rates showed that disparities in asthma outcomes remained stable (ED visits and hospitalizations) or increased (asthma attack prevalence, deaths). In contrast, analysis with at-risk rates, which account for differences in asthma prevalence, showed that disparities in asthma outcomes remained stable (deaths), decreased (ED visits, hospitalizations), or did not exist (asthma attack prevalence). Using at-risk rates to assess racial disparities in asthma outcomes accounts for prevalence differences between black and white children, and adds another perspective to the population-based examination of asthma disparities. An at-risk rate analysis shows that among children with asthma, there is no disparity for asthma attack prevalence and that progress has been made in decreasing disparities in asthma ED visit and hospitalization rates. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Trends in Female Breast Cancer by Age Group in the Chiang

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Sripan, Patumrat; Sriplung, Hutcha; Pongnikorn, Donsuk; Virani, Shama; Bilheem, Surichai; Chaisaengkhaum, Udomlak; Maneesai, Puttachart; Waisri, Narate; Hanpragopsuk, Chirapong; Tansiri, Panrada; Khamsan, Varunee; Poungsombat, Malisa; Mawoot, Aumnart; Chitapanarux, Imjai

2017-05-01

Objectives: This study was conducted to determine incidence trends of female breast cancer according to age groups and to predict future change in Chiang Mai women through 2028. Method: Data were collected from all hospitals in Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, from 1989 through 2013, and used to investigate effects of age, year of diagnosis (period) and year of birth (cohort) on female breast cancer incidences using an age-period-cohort model. This model features geometric cut trends to predict change by young (<40 years), middle-aged (40-59) and elderly (≥60) age groups. Result: Of 5, 417 female breast cancer patients with a median age of 50 years (interquartile range: 43 to 59 years), 15%, 61% and 24% were young, middle-aged and elderly, respectively. Seventy nine percent of cancer cases in this study were detected at advanced stage. The trend in stage classification showed an increase in percentage of early stage and a decrease in metastatic cancers. Linear trends for cohort and period were not found in young females but were observed in middle-aged and elderly groups. Age-standardized rates (ASR) can be expected to remain stable around 6.8 per 100,000 women-years in young females. In the other age groups, the ASR trends were calculated to increase and reach peaks in 2024 of 120.2 and 138.2 per 100,000 women-years, respectively. Conclusion: Cohort effects or generation-specific effects, such as life style factors and the year of diagnosis (period) might have impacted on increased incidence in women aged over 40 years but not those under 40 years. A budget should be provided for treatment facilities and strategies to detect early stage cancers. The cost effectiveness of screening measures i.e. mammographic screening may need to be reconsidered for women age over 40 years. Creative Commons Attribution License

Differing long term trends for two common amphibian species (Bufo bufo and Rana temporaria in alpine landscapes of Salzburg, Austria.

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Martin Kyek

Full Text Available This study focuses on the population trends of two widespread European anuran species: the common toad (Bufo bufo and the common frog (Rana temporaria. The basis of this study is data gathered over two decades of amphibian fencing alongside roads in the Austrian state of Salzburg. Different statistical approaches were used to analyse the data. Overall average increase or decrease of each species was estimated by calculating a simple average locality index. In addition the statistical software TRIM was used to verify these trends as well as to categorize the data based on the geographic location of each migration site. The results show differing overall trends for the two species: the common toad being stable and the common frog showing a substantial decline over the last two decades. Further analyses based on geographic categorization reveal the strongest decrease in the alpine range of the species. Drainage and agricultural intensification are still ongoing problems within alpine areas, not only in Salzburg. Particularly in respect to micro-climate and the availability of spawning places these changes appear to have a greater impact on the habitats of the common frog than the common toad. Therefore we consider habitat destruction to be the main potential reason behind this dramatic decline. We also conclude that the substantial loss of biomass of a widespread species such as the common frog must have a severe, and often overlooked, ecological impact.

Water quality trends in the Blackwater River watershed, West Virginia

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Smith, Jessica; Welsh, Stuart A.; Anderson, James T.; Fortney, Ronald H.

2015-01-01

An understanding of historic and current water quality is needed to manage and improve aquatic communities within the Blackwater River watershed, WV. The Blackwater River, which historically offered an excellent Salvelinus fontinalis (Brook Trout) fishery, has been affected by logging, coal mining, use of off-road vehicles, and land development. Using information-theoretic methods, we examined trends in water quality at 12 sites in the watershed for the 14 years of 1980–1993. Except for Beaver Creek, downward trends in acidity and upward trends in alkalinity, conductivity, and hardness were consistent with decreases in hydrogen ion concentration. Water-quality trends for Beaver Creek were inconsistent with the other sites and reflect ongoing coal-mining influences. Dissolved oxygen trended downward, possibly due to natural conditions, but remained above thresholds that would be detrimental to aquatic life. Water quality changed only slightly within the watershed from 1980–1993, possibly reflecting few changes in development and land uses during this time. These data serve as a baseline for future water-quality studies and may help to inform management planning.

Trends in concentrations and export of nitrogen in boreal forest streams

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Sarkkola, S.; Nieminen, M. [Finnish Forest Research Inst., Vantaa (Finland); Koivusalo, H. [Aalto University School of Science and Technology, Espoo (Finland), Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering] [and others

2012-11-01

Temporal trends in inorganic and organic nitrogen (N) export in the stream water between 1979 and 2006 were studied in eight forested headwater catchments in eastern Finland, where an increasing air-temperature trend and a decreasing N-deposition trend has been observed since the 1980s. The Seasonal Kendall test was conducted to study if the stream water N concentrations have changed concurrently and a mixed model regression analysis was used to study which catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological variables were related to the variation in stream water N. The annual concentrations of total organic N (TON) increased at two catchments and the concentrations of nitrate (NO{sub 3}-N) and ammonium (NH{sub 4}-N) decreased at three and four catchments, respectively. The main factor explaining variation in concentrations and export of N was percentage of peatlands in a catchment. The NH{sub 4}-N concentrations were also related to the N deposition, and the exports of NO{sub 3}, NH{sub 4}, and TON to precipitation. Quantitative changes in both the N concentrations and exports were small. The results suggested relatively small changes in the N concentrations and exports between 1979 and 2006, most probably because the effects of increased air and stream water temperatures largely have been concealed behind the concurrent decrease in N deposition. (orig.)

Fascicles and the interfascicular matrix show decreased fatigue life with ageing in energy storing tendons.

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Thorpe, Chavaunne T; Riley, Graham P; Birch, Helen L; Clegg, Peter D; Screen, Hazel R C

2017-07-01

Tendon is composed of rope-like fascicles bound together by interfascicular matrix (IFM). The IFM is critical for the function of energy storing tendons, facilitating sliding between fascicles to allow these tendons to cyclically stretch and recoil. This capacity is required to a lesser degree in positional tendons. We have previously demonstrated that both fascicles and IFM in energy storing tendons have superior fatigue resistance compared with positional tendons, but the effect of ageing on the fatigue properties of these different tendon subunits has not been determined. Energy storing tendons become more injury-prone with ageing, indicating reduced fatigue resistance, hence we tested the hypothesis that the decline in fatigue life with ageing in energy storing tendons would be more pronounced in the IFM than in fascicles. We further hypothesised that tendon subunit fatigue resistance would not alter with ageing in positional tendons. Fascicles and IFM from young and old energy storing and positional tendons were subjected to cyclic fatigue testing until failure, and mechanical properties were calculated. The results show that both IFM and fascicles from the SDFT exhibit a similar magnitude of reduced fatigue life with ageing. By contrast, the fatigue life of positional tendon subunits was unaffected by ageing. The age-related decline in fatigue life of tendon subunits in energy storing tendons is likely to contribute to the increased risk of injury in aged tendons. Full understanding of the mechanisms resulting in this reduced fatigue life will aid in the development of treatments and interventions to prevent age-related tendinopathy. Understanding the effect of ageing on tendon-structure function relationships is crucial for the development of effective preventative measures and treatments for age-related tendon injury. In this study, we demonstrate for the first time that the fatigue resistance of the interfascicular matrix decreases with ageing in energy

Fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy logical relationships.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shyi-Ming; Chen, Shen-Wen

2015-03-01

In this paper, we present a new method for fuzzy forecasting based on two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups and the probabilities of trends of fuzzy-trend logical relationships. Firstly, the proposed method fuzzifies the historical training data of the main factor and the secondary factor into fuzzy sets, respectively, to form two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships. Then, it groups the obtained two-factors second-order fuzzy logical relationships into two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship groups. Then, it calculates the probability of the "down-trend," the probability of the "equal-trend" and the probability of the "up-trend" of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group, respectively. Finally, it performs the forecasting based on the probabilities of the down-trend, the equal-trend, and the up-trend of the two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationships in each two-factors second-order fuzzy-trend logical relationship group. We also apply the proposed method to forecast the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) and the NTD/USD exchange rates. The experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms the existing methods.

Trends and variability of midlatitude stratospheric water vapour deduced from the re-evaluated Boulder balloon series and HALOE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Scherer

2008-03-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an updated trend analysis of water vapour in the lower midlatitude stratosphere from the Boulder balloon-borne NOAA frostpoint hygrometer measurements and from the Halogen Occulation Experiment (HALOE. Two corrections for instrumental bias are applied to homogenise the frostpoint data series, and a quality assessment of all soundings after 1991 is presented. Linear trend estimates based on the corrected data for the period 1980–2000 are up to 40% lower than previously reported. Vertically resolved trends and variability are calculated with a multi regression analysis including the quasi-biennal oscillation and equivalent latitude as explanatory variables. In the range of 380 to 640 K potential temperature (≈14 to 25 km, the frostpoint data from 1981 to 2006 show positive linear trends between 0.3±0.3 and 0.7±0.1%/yr. The same dataset shows trends between −0.2±0.3 and 1.0±0.3%/yr for the period 1992 to 2005. HALOE data over the same time period suggest negative trends ranging from −1.1±0.2 to −0.1±0.1%/yr. In the lower stratosphere, a rapid drop of water vapour is observed in 2000/2001 with little change since. At higher altitudes, the transition is more gradual, with slowly decreasing concentrations between 2001 and 2007. This pattern is consistent with a change induced by a drop of water concentrations at entry into the stratosphere. Previously noted differences in trends and variability between frostpoint and HALOE remain for the homogenised data. Due to uncertainties in reanalysis temperatures and stratospheric transport combined with uncertainties in observations, no quantitative inference about changes of water entering the stratosphere in the tropics could be made with the mid latitude measurements analysed here.

Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools

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Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun

2010-01-01

Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

Recent national trends in the use of adolescent inpatient bariatric surgery: 2000 through 2009.