WorldWideScience

Sample records for show declining trends

  1. Chronic groundwater decline: A multi-decadal analysis of groundwater trends under extreme climate cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Brocque, Andrew F.; Kath, Jarrod; Reardon-Smith, Kathryn

    2018-06-01

    Chronic groundwater decline is a concern in many of the world's major agricultural areas. However, a general lack of accurate long-term in situ measurement of groundwater depth and analysis of trends prevents understanding of the dynamics of these systems at landscape scales. This is particularly worrying in the context of future climate uncertainties. This study examines long-term groundwater responses to climate variability in a major agricultural production landscape in southern Queensland, Australia. Based on records for 381 groundwater bores, we used a modified Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and Sen's slope estimator to determine groundwater trends across a 26-year period (1989-2015) and in distinct wet and dry climatic phases. Comparison of trends between climatic phases showed groundwater level recovery during wet phases was insufficient to offset the decline in groundwater level from the previous dry phase. Across the entire 26-year sampling period, groundwater bore levels (all bores) showed an overall significant declining trend (p 0.05). Spatially, both declining and rising bores were highly clustered. We conclude that over 1989-2015 there is a significant net decline in groundwater levels driven by a smaller subset of highly responsive bores in high irrigation areas within the catchment. Despite a number of targeted policy interventions, chronic groundwater decline remains evident in the catchment. We argue that this is likely to continue and to occur more widely under potential climate change and that policy makers, groundwater users and managers need to engage in planning to ensure the sustainability of this vital resource.

  2. Army Study Shows Decline In Behavioral Health Stigma

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Army Study Shows Decline in Behavioral Health Stigma By Rob McIlvaine Army News Service WASHINGTON, Jan. 20, 2012 - A newly released Army study on...conference yesterday. The three-year study outlines the problem of suicide in the Army and related issues of substance abuse, spouse abuse and child abuse...REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED 00-00-2012 to 00-00-2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Army Study Shows Decline In Behavioral Health Stigma 5a. CONTRACT

  3. Bi-decadal groundwater level trends in a semi-arid south indian region: Declines, causes and management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajendra P. Sishodia

    2016-12-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Contrary to common perception of widespread groundwater declines only 22–36% of the wells showed statistically significant declines. The use of well depth during dry well periods may slightly underestimate the number of declining wells (by 1% and rate of decline. Increase in groundwater irrigated area combined with rainfall and power subsidy policy, were the main causative factors for the decline. Groundwater decline after implementation of free-electricity policy in 2004 confirmed the nexus between power subsidy and groundwater. These declines are likely to worsen due to future well drillings. Trends in other regions with similar hydro-geologic conditions need to be analyzed to verify groundwater declines and its linkages with power subsidy. Once established, reforms in power subsidy and well permit policy along with conversion to efficient micro–irrigation may be needed to maintain or enhance groundwater availability in the crystalline aquifer region of India (240 million ha.

  4. The effect of submerged aquatic vegetation expansion on a declining turbidity trend in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hestir, E.L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Jonathan Greenberg,; Morgan-King, Tara L.; Ustin, S.L.

    2016-01-01

    Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) has well-documented effects on water clarity. SAV beds can slow water movement and reduce bed shear stress, promoting sedimentation and reducing suspension. However, estuaries have multiple controls on turbidity that make it difficult to determine the effect of SAV on water clarity. In this study, we investigated the effect of primarily invasive SAV expansion on a concomitant decline in turbidity in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The objective of this study was to separate the effects of decreasing sediment supply from the watershed from increasing SAV cover to determine the effect of SAV on the declining turbidity trend. SAV cover was determined by airborne hyperspectral remote sensing and turbidity data from long-term monitoring records. The turbidity trends were corrected for the declining sediment supply using suspended-sediment concentration data from a station immediately upstream of the Delta. We found a significant negative trend in turbidity from 1975 to 2008, and when we removed the sediment supply signal from the trend it was still significant and negative, indicating that a factor other than sediment supply was responsible for part of the turbidity decline. Turbidity monitoring stations with high rates of SAV expansion had steeper and more significant turbidity trends than those with low SAV cover. Our findings suggest that SAV is an important (but not sole) factor in the turbidity decline, and we estimate that 21–70 % of the total declining turbidity trend is due to SAV expansion.

  5. Persistent cannabis users show neuropsychological decline from childhood to midlife

    OpenAIRE

    Meier, Madeline H.; Caspi, Avshalom; Ambler, Antony; Harrington, HonaLee; Houts, Renate; Keefe, Richard S. E.; McDonald, Kay; Ward, Aimee; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E.

    2012-01-01

    Recent reports show that fewer adolescents believe that regular cannabis use is harmful to health. Concomitantly, adolescents are initiating cannabis use at younger ages, and more adolescents are using cannabis on a daily basis. The purpose of the present study was to test the association between persistent cannabis use and neuropsychological decline and determine whether decline is concentrated among adolescent-onset cannabis users. Participants were members of the Dunedin Study, a prospecti...

  6. Decline in HIV prevalence among young women in Zambia: national-level estimates of trends mask geographical and socio-demographic differences.

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    Nkomba Kayeyi

    Full Text Available A decline in HIV incidence has been reported in Zambia and a number of other sub-Saharan countries. The trend of HIV prevalence among young people is a good marker of HIV incidence. In this study, different data sources are used to examine geographical and sub-population group differentials in HIV prevalence trends among men and women aged 15-24 years in Zambia.We analysed ANC data for women aged 15-24 years from 22 sentinel sites consistently covered in the period 1994-2008, and HIV data for young men and women aged 15-24 years from the ZDHS 2001/2 and 2007. In addition, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles that have reported findings on HIV prevalence and incidence among young people.Overall trends of the ANC surveillance data indicated a substantial HIV prevalence decline among young women in both urban and rural areas. However, provincial declines differed substantially, i.e. between 10% and 68% among urban women, and from stability to 86% among rural women. Prevalence declines were steeper among those with the highest educational attainments than among the least educated. The ZDHS data indicated a significant reduction in prevalence between the two survey rounds among young women only. Provincial-level ZDHS changes were difficult to assess because the sample sizes were small. ANC-based trend patterns were consistent with those observed in PMTCT-based data (2002-2006, whereas population-based surveys in a selected urban community (1995-2003 suggested that the ANC-based data underestimated the prevalence declines in the general populations of both young both men and women.The overall HIV prevalence declined substantially among young women in Zambia and this is interpreted as indicating a decline in HIV incidence. It is noteworthy that overall national trends masked substantial differences by place and by educational attainment, demonstrating critical limitations in the current focus on overall country-level trends in

  7. Cohorts based on decade of death: no evidence for secular trends favoring later cohorts in cognitive aging and terminal decline in the AHEAD study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hülür, Gizem; Infurna, Frank J; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

    2013-03-01

    Studies of birth-year cohorts examined over the same age range often report secular trends favoring later-born cohorts, who are cognitively fitter and show less steep cognitive declines than earlier-born cohorts. However, there is initial evidence that those advantages of later-born cohorts do not carry into the last years of life, suggesting that pervasive mortality-related processes minimize differences that were apparent earlier in life. Elaborating this work from an alternative perspective on cohort differences, we compared rates of cognitive aging and terminal decline in episodic memory between cohorts based on the year participants had died, earlier (between 1993 and 1999) or later in historical time (between 2000 and 2010). Specifically, we compared trajectories of cognitive decline in 2 death-year cohorts of participants in the Asset and Health Dynamics Among the Oldest Old study that were matched on age at death and education and controlled for a variety of additional covariates. Results revealed little evidence of secular trends favoring later cohorts. To the contrary, the cohort that died in the 2000s showed a less favorable trajectory of age-related memory decline than the cohort that died in the 1990s. In examinations of change in relation to time to death, the cohort dying in the 2000s experienced even steeper terminal declines than the cohort dying in the 1990s. We suggest that secular increases in "manufacturing" survival may exacerbate age- and mortality-related cognitive declines among the oldest old.

  8. Long-term trends in midwestern milkweed abundances and their relevance to monarch butterfly declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaya, David N.; Pearse, Ian; Spyreas, Gregory

    2017-01-01

    Declines in monarch butterfly populations have prompted investigation into the sensitivity of their milkweed host plants to land-use change. Documented declines in milkweed abundance in croplands have spurred efforts to promote milkweeds in other habitats. Nevertheless, our current understanding of milkweed populations is poor. We used a long-term plant survey from Illinois to evaluate whether trends in milkweed abundance have caused monarch decline and to highlight the habitat-management practices that promote milkweeds. Milkweed abundance in natural areas has not declined precipitously, although when croplands are considered, changes in agricultural weed management have led to a 68% loss of milkweed available for monarchs across the region. Midsuccessional plant communities with few invasive species provide optimal milkweed habitat. The augmentation of natural areas and the management of existing grasslands, such as less frequent mowing and woody- and exotic-species control, may replace some of the milkweed that has been lost from croplands.

  9. Declining Otolaryngology Resident Training Experience in Tracheostomies: Case Log Trends from 2005 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lesko, David; Showmaker, Jason; Ukatu, Ceisha; Wu, Qiwei; Chang, C W David

    2017-06-01

    Objective To evaluate recent tracheostomy surgical experience among otolaryngology residents and general surgery residents. Study Design Retrospective database review. Setting Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education otolaryngology and general surgery programs. Subjects and Methods Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education case log data from 2005 to 2015 for resident graduates in otolaryngology and general surgery were used to obtain mean graduate tracheostomy numbers, mean graduate composite case numbers, and number of graduating residents. Market share for each specialty was estimated through the derived metric of nationwide total tracheostomy graduate experience, calculated by multiplying the number of graduating residents by the mean number of graduate tracheostomies. Linear regression analysis was used to calculate trends. Multiple linear regression analysis was used for pairwise comparison of trends. Results From 2005 to 2015, mean graduate tracheostomy numbers for otolaryngology residents declined 2.3% per year, while those for general surgery residents increased 1.8% per year. Accounting for changes in number of resident graduates, market share of tracheostomy decreased 1.0% per year for otolaryngology and increased 3.0% per year for general surgery. Mean graduate composite case numbers increased significantly by 1.8% and 1.0% per year for otolaryngology and general surgery residents, respectively. Conclusion Tracheostomy case volume in otolaryngology residency has decreased steadily in comparison with general surgery residency. However, current otolaryngology graduates have more experience in tracheostomy when compared with general surgery graduates. While otolaryngology residents have excellent exposure to tracheostomy, otolaryngology programs should be made aware of this declining trend as well as changing procedural trends, which may affect training needs.

  10. Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

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    Tsui, A O; Bogue, D J

    1978-10-01

    This Bulletin examines the evidence that the world's fertility has declined in recent years, the factors that appear to have accounted for the decline, and the implications for fertility and population growth rates to the end of the century. On the basis of a compilation of estimates available for all nations of the world, the authors derive estimates which indicate that the world's total fertility rate dropped from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman between 1968 and 1975, thanks largely to an earlier and more rapid and universal decline in the fertility of less developed countries (LDCs) than had been anticipated. Statistical analysis of available data suggests that the socioeconomic progress made by LDCs in this period was not great enough to account for more than a proportion of the fertility decline and that organized family planning programs were a major contributing factor. The authors' projections, which are compared to similar projections from the World Bank, the United Nations, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census, indicate that, by the year 2000, less than 1/5 of the world's population will be in the "red danger" circle of explosive population growth (2.1% or more annually); most LDCs will be in a phase of fertility decline; and many of them -- along with most now developed countries -- will be at or near replacement level of fertility. The authors warn that "our optimistic prediction is premised upon a big IF -- if (organized) family planning (in LDCs) continues. It remains imperative that all of the developed nations of the world continue their contribution to this program undiminished."

  11. Regional-Scale Declines in Productivity of Pink and Chum Salmon Stocks in Western North America

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    Malick, Michael J.; Cox, Sean P.

    2016-01-01

    Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) stocks throughout the southern part of their North American range have experienced declines in productivity over the past two decades. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that pink (O. gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon stocks have also experienced recent declines in productivity by investigating temporal and spatial trends in productivity of 99 wild North American pink and chum salmon stocks. We used a combination of population dynamics and time series models to quantify individual stock trends as well as common temporal trends in pink and chum salmon productivity across local, regional, and continental spatial scales. Our results indicated widespread declines in productivity of wild chum salmon stocks throughout Washington (WA) and British Columbia (BC) with 81% of stocks showing recent declines in productivity, although the exact form of the trends varied among regions. For pink salmon, the majority of stocks in WA and BC (65%) did not have strong temporal trends in productivity; however, all stocks that did have trends in productivity showed declining productivity since at least brood year 1996. We found weaker evidence of widespread declines in productivity for Alaska pink and chum salmon, with some regions and stocks showing declines in productivity (e.g., Kodiak chum salmon stocks) and others showing increases (e.g., Alaska Peninsula pink salmon stocks). We also found strong positive covariation between stock productivity series at the regional spatial scale for both pink and chum salmon, along with evidence that this regional-scale positive covariation has become stronger since the early 1990s in WA and BC. In general, our results suggest that common processes operating at the regional or multi-regional spatial scales drive productivity of pink and chum salmon stocks in western North America and that the effects of these process on productivity may change over time. PMID:26760510

  12. Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

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    Zhaofei Fan; Xiuli Fan; Michael K. Crosby; W. Keith Moser; Hong He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley

    2012-01-01

    At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups) were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and...

  13. Declines in Crime and Teen Childbearing: Identifying Potential Explanations for Contemporaneous Trends

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    Colen, Cynthia G.; Ramey, David M.; Browning, Christopher R.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The previous 25 years have witnessed remarkable upheavals in the social landscape of the United States. Two of the most notable trends have been dramatic declines in levels of crime as well as teen childbearing. Much remains unknown about the underlying conditions that might be driving these changes. More importantly, we do not know if the same distal factors that are responsible for the drop in the crime rate are similarly implicated in falling rates of teen births. We examine four overarching potential explanations: fluctuations in economic opportunity, shifting population demographics, differences in state-level policies, and changes in expectations regarding health and mortality. Methods We combine state-specific data from existing secondary sources and model trajectories of violent crime, homicides, robberies, and teen fertility over a 20-year period from 1990 to 2010 using simultaneous fixed-effects regression models. Results We find that 4 of the 21 predictors examined - growth in the service sector of the labor market, increasing racial diversity especially among Hispanics, escalating levels of migration, and the expansion of family planning services to low-income women – offer the most convincing explanations for why rates of violent crime and teen births have been steadily decreasing over time. Moreover, we are able to account for almost a quarter of the joint declines in violent crime and teen births. Conclusions Our conclusions underscore the far reaching effects that aggregate level demographic conditions and policies are likely to have on important social trends that might, at first glance, seem unrelated. Furthermore, the effects of policy efforts designed to target outcomes in one area are likely to spill over into other domains. PMID:27695160

  14. Status and trends of amphibian declines and extinctions worldwide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stuart, Simon N; Chanson, Janice S; Cox, Neil A; Young, Bruce E; Rodrigues, Ana S L; Fischman, Debra L; Waller, Robert W

    2004-12-03

    The first global assessment of amphibians provides new context for the well-publicized phenomenon of amphibian declines. Amphibians are more threatened and are declining more rapidly than either birds or mammals. Although many declines are due to habitat loss and overutilization, other, unidentified processes threaten 48% of rapidly declining species and are driving species most quickly to extinction. Declines are nonrandom in terms of species' ecological preferences, geographic ranges, and taxonomic associations and are most prevalent among Neotropical montane, stream-associated species. The lack of conservation remedies for these poorly understood declines means that hundreds of amphibian species now face extinction.

  15. Estimating trends of population decline in long-lived marine species in the Mediterranean Sea based on fishers' perceptions.

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    Francesc Maynou

    Full Text Available We conducted interviews of a representative sample of 106 retired fishers in Italy, Spain and Greece, asking specific questions about the trends they perceived in dolphin and shark abundances between 1940 and 1999 (in three 20 year periods compared to the present abundance. The large marine fauna studied were not target species of the commercial fleet segment interviewed (trawl fishery. The fishers were asked to rank the perceived abundance in each period into qualitative ordinal classes based on two indicators: frequency of sightings and frequency of catches (incidental or intentional of each taxonomic group. The statistical analysis of the survey results showed that both incidental catches and the sighting frequency of dolphins have decreased significantly over the 60+ years of the study period (except for in Greece due to the recent population increase. This shows that fishers' perceptions are in agreement with the declining population trends detected by scientists. Shark catches were also perceived to have diminished since the early 1940s for all species. Other long-lived Mediterranean marine fauna (monk seals, whales were at very low levels in the second half of the 20(th century and no quantitative data could be obtained. Our study supports the results obtained in the Mediterranean and other seas that show the rapid disappearance (over a few decades of marine fauna. We show that appropriately designed questionnaires help provide a picture of animal abundance in the past through the valuable perceptions of fishers. This information can be used to complement scientific sources or in some cases be taken as the only information source for establishing population trends in the abundance of sensitive species.

  16. Are infant mortality rate declines exponential? The general pattern of 20th century infant mortality rate decline

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    Opuni Marjorie

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Time trends in infant mortality for the 20th century show a curvilinear pattern that most demographers have assumed to be approximately exponential. Virtually all cross-country comparisons and time series analyses of infant mortality have studied the logarithm of infant mortality to account for the curvilinear time trend. However, there is no evidence that the log transform is the best fit for infant mortality time trends. Methods We use maximum likelihood methods to determine the best transformation to fit time trends in infant mortality reduction in the 20th century and to assess the importance of the proper transformation in identifying the relationship between infant mortality and gross domestic product (GDP per capita. We apply the Box Cox transform to infant mortality rate (IMR time series from 18 countries to identify the best fitting value of lambda for each country and for the pooled sample. For each country, we test the value of λ against the null that λ = 0 (logarithmic model and against the null that λ = 1 (linear model. We then demonstrate the importance of selecting the proper transformation by comparing regressions of ln(IMR on same year GDP per capita against Box Cox transformed models. Results Based on chi-squared test statistics, infant mortality decline is best described as an exponential decline only for the United States. For the remaining 17 countries we study, IMR decline is neither best modelled as logarithmic nor as a linear process. Imposing a logarithmic transform on IMR can lead to bias in fitting the relationship between IMR and GDP per capita. Conclusion The assumption that IMR declines are exponential is enshrined in the Preston curve and in nearly all cross-country as well as time series analyses of IMR data since Preston's 1975 paper, but this assumption is seldom correct. Statistical analyses of IMR trends should assess the robustness of findings to transformations other than the log

  17. Declining trends in alcohol consumption among Swedish youth-does the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures apply?

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    Raninen, Jonas; Livingston, Michael; Leifman, Håkan

    2014-11-01

    To analyse trends in alcohol consumption among young people in Sweden between 2004 and 2012, to test whether the theory of collectivity of drinking cultures is valid for a population of young people and to investigate the impact of an increasing proportion of abstainers on the overall per capita trends. Data were drawn from an annual survey of a nationally representative sample of students in year 11 (17-18 years old). The data covered 9 years and the total sample comprised 36,141 students. Changes in the overall per capita consumption were tested using linear regression on log-transformed data, and changes in abstention rates were tested using logistic regression. The analyses were then continued by calculating average consumption in deciles. Alcohol consumption among year 11 students declined significantly among both boys and girls between 2004 and 2012. These changes were reflected at all levels of consumption, and the same results were found when abstainers were excluded from the analyses. The increasing proportion of abstainers had a minimal effect on the overall decline in consumption; rather, this was driven by a decline in consumption among the heaviest drinkers. The theory of collectivity of drinking cultures seems valid for understanding changes in alcohol consumption among Swedish year 11 students. No support was found for a polarization of alcohol consumption in this nationally representative sample. © The Author 2014. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

  18. The Decline of the Autopsy in Rhode Island and Nationwide: Past Trends and Future Directions.

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    Baumgartner, Alex; Anthony, Douglas

    2016-10-04

    The autopsy has long been a fundamental aspect of medical practice and research. However, in the last 50 years, the proportion of deaths for which an autopsy is performed has decreased dramatically. Here we examine some of the reasons for the decline of the autopsy, as well as several interventions that have been proposed to revive it. We also present autopsy utilization data from the Lifespan system, which mirrors nationwide trends. [Full article available at http://rimed.org/rimedicaljournal-2016-10.asp].

  19. Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

    2007-05-15

    Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

  20. Long-term trends at the Boknis Eck time series station (Baltic Sea, 1957–2013: does climate change counteract the decline in eutrophication?

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    S. T. Lennartz

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The Boknis Eck (BE time series station, initiated in 1957, is one of the longest-operated time series stations worldwide. We present the first statistical evaluation of a data set of nine physical, chemical and biological parameters in the period of 1957–2013. In the past three to five decades, all of the measured parameters underwent significant long-term changes. Most striking is an ongoing decline in bottom water oxygen concentration, despite a significant decrease of nutrient and chlorophyll a concentrations. Temperature-enhanced oxygen consumption in the bottom water and a prolongation of the stratification period are discussed as possible reasons for the ongoing oxygen decline despite declining eutrophication. Observations at the BE station were compared with model output of the Kiel Baltic Sea Ice Ocean Model (BSIOM. Reproduced trends were in good agreement with observed trends for temperature and oxygen, but generally the oxygen concentration at the bottom has been overestimated.

  1. Factors associated with the decline in suicide by pesticide poisoning in Taiwan: a time trend analysis, 1987-2010.

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    Chang, Shu-Sen; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Eddleston, Michael; Konradsen, Flemming; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Lin, Jin-Jia; Gunnell, David

    2012-07-01

    Pesticide self-poisoning accounts for one-third of suicides worldwide, but few studies have investigated the national epidemiology of pesticide suicide in countries where it is a commonly used method. We investigated trends in pesticide suicide, and factors associated with such trends, in Taiwan, a rapidly developing East Asian country. We conducted an ecological study using graphical approaches and Spearman's correlation coefficients to examine trends in pesticide suicide (1987-2010) in Taiwan in relation to pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticides, the proportion of the workforce involved in agriculture and unemployment. We compared pesticide products banned by the Taiwanese government with products that remained on the market and pesticides that accounted for the most poisoning deaths in Taiwan. Age-standardised rates of pesticide suicide showed a 67% reduction from 7.7 per 100,000 (42% of all suicides) in 1987 to 2.5 per 100,000 (12% of all suicides) in 2010, in contrast to a 69% increase in suicide rates by other methods. Pesticide poisoning was the most commonly used method of suicide in 1987 but had become the third most common method by 2010. The reduction was paralleled by a 66% fall in the workforce involved in agriculture but there was no strong evidence for its association with trends in pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticide products or unemployment. The bans mostly post-dated the decline in pesticide suicides; furthermore, they did not include products (e.g. paraquat) that accounted for most deaths and were mainly restricted to selected high-strength formulated products whilst their equivalent low-strength products were not banned. Access to pesticides, indicated by the size of agricultural workforce, appears to influence trends in pesticide suicide in Taiwan. Targeted bans on pesticides should focus on those products that account for most deaths.

  2. Recent widespread tree growth decline despite increasing atmospheric CO2.

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    Silva, Lucas C R; Anand, Madhur; Leithead, Mark D

    2010-07-21

    The synergetic effects of recent rising atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are expected to favor tree growth in boreal and temperate forests. However, recent dendrochronological studies have shown site-specific unprecedented growth enhancements or declines. The question of whether either of these trends is caused by changes in the atmosphere remains unanswered because dendrochronology alone has not been able to clarify the physiological basis of such trends. Here we combined standard dendrochronological methods with carbon isotopic analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced water use efficiency (WUE) and growth of two deciduous and two coniferous tree species along a 9 degrees latitudinal gradient across temperate and boreal forests in Ontario, Canada. Our results show that although trees have had around 53% increases in WUE over the past century, growth decline (measured as a decrease in basal area increment--BAI) has been the prevalent response in recent decades irrespective of species identity and latitude. Since the 1950s, tree BAI was predominantly negatively correlated with warmer climates and/or positively correlated with precipitation, suggesting warming induced water stress. However, where growth declines were not explained by climate, WUE and BAI were linearly and positively correlated, showing that declines are not always attributable to warming induced stress and additional stressors may exist. Our results show an unexpected widespread tree growth decline in temperate and boreal forests due to warming induced stress but are also suggestive of additional stressors. Rising atmospheric CO2 levels during the past century resulted in consistent increases in water use efficiency, but this did not prevent growth decline. These findings challenge current predictions of increasing terrestrial carbon stocks under climate change scenarios.

  3. Relationship between intraoperative regional cerebral oxygen saturation trends and cognitive decline after total knee replacement: a post-hoc analysis.

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    Salazar, Fátima; Doñate, Marta; Boget, Teresa; Bogdanovich, Ana; Basora, Misericordia; Torres, Ferran; Gracia, Isabel; Fàbregas, Neus

    2014-01-01

    Bilateral regional brain oxygen saturation (rSO2) trends, reflecting intraoperative brain oxygen imbalance, could warn of brain dysfunction. Various types of cognitive impairment, such as memory decline, alterations in executive function or subjective complaints, have been described three months after surgery. Our aim was to explore the potential utility of rSO2 values as a warning sign for the development of different types of decline in postoperative psychological function. Observational post-hoc analysis of data for the patient sample (n = 125) of a previously conducted clinical trial in patients over the age of 65 years undergoing total knee replacement under spinal anesthesia. Demographic, hemodynamic and bilateral rSO2 intraoperative values were recorded. An absolute rSO2 value of 20% or >25% below baseline were chosen as relevant cutoffs. Composite function test scores were created from baseline to three months for each patient and adjusted for the mean (SD) score changes for a control group (n = 55). Tests were used to assess visual-motor coordination and executive function (VM-EF) (Wechsler Digit Symbol-Coding and Visual Reproduction, Trail Making Test) and memory (Auditory Verbal Learning, Wechsler Memory Scale); scales were used to assess psychological symptoms. We observed no differences in baseline rSO2 values; rSO2 decreased significantly in all patients during surgery (P Left and right rSO2 values were asymmetric in patients who had memory decline (mean [SD] left-right ratio of 95.03 [8.51] vs 101.29 [6.7] for patients with no changes, P = 0.0012). The mean right-left difference in rSO2 was also significant in these patients (-2.87% [4.73%], lower on the right, P = 0.0034). Detection of a trend to asymmetry in rSO2 values can warn of possible postoperative onset of memory decline. Psychological symptoms and memory decline were common three months after knee replacement in our patients over the age of 65 years.

  4. Std trends in chengalpattu hospital

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    Krishnamurthy V

    1996-01-01

    Full Text Available A retrospective data analysis was carried out to find the trends in frequency and distribution of different STDs at Chengalpattu during 1988-1994. Of the 4549 patients who attended the clinic 3621 (79.6% were males and 928 (20.4% were females. The commonest STD was Chancroid (24.4% in men and Syphillis (29% in women. Balanoposthitis (11.4% ranked third among STDs in males. Though the STD attendance showed a declining trend, most diseases showed a constant distribution. The percentage composition of secondary and latent syphillis, Genital Warts, Genital Herpes and the Non-Venereal group showed an increased composition in recent years. Primary syphillis in females showed a definite declining trend. The HIV sero-positive detection rate was 2.06%. Of the 1116 patients screened for HIV antibody, 23 patients were detected sero-positive. Time Series Regression Analysis was used to predict the number of patients who would attend the STD clinic with various STDs in 1995 and 1996 to help in the understanding of the disease load and pattern in future, in resources management and in developing and evaluating preventive measures.

  5. Groundwater-level trends and forecasts, and salinity trends, in the Azraq, Dead Sea, Hammad, Jordan Side Valleys, Yarmouk, and Zarqa groundwater basins, Jordan

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    Goode, Daniel J.; Senior, Lisa A.; Subah, Ali; Jaber, Ayman

    2013-01-01

    Changes in groundwater levels and salinity in six groundwater basins in Jordan were characterized by using linear trends fit to well-monitoring data collected from 1960 to early 2011. On the basis of data for 117 wells, groundwater levels in the six basins were declining, on average about -1 meter per year (m/yr), in 2010. The highest average rate of decline, -1.9 m/yr, occurred in the Jordan Side Valleys basin, and on average no decline occurred in the Hammad basin. The highest rate of decline for an individual well was -9 m/yr. Aquifer saturated thickness, a measure of water storage, was forecast for year 2030 by using linear extrapolation of the groundwater-level trend in 2010. From 30 to 40 percent of the saturated thickness, on average, was forecast to be depleted by 2030. Five percent of the wells evaluated were forecast to have zero saturated thickness by 2030. Electrical conductivity was used as a surrogate for salinity (total dissolved solids). Salinity trends in groundwater were much more variable and less linear than groundwater-level trends. The long-term linear salinity trend at most of the 205 wells evaluated was not increasing, although salinity trends are increasing in some areas. The salinity in about 58 percent of the wells in the Amman-Zarqa basin was substantially increasing, and the salinity in Hammad basin showed a long-term increasing trend. Salinity increases were not always observed in areas with groundwater-level declines. The highest rates of salinity increase were observed in regional discharge areas near groundwater pumping centers.

  6. Demographic Trends: Impact on Schools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chong, Sylvia N. Y.; Cheah, Horn Mun

    2010-01-01

    Background: Singapore is experiencing great demographic change. These demographic trends show fewer young people and declining birth rates, greater longevity for ageing generations and an increase in the number of non-Singaporean residents. Statistics also show that more than half of the total population increase in the last decades was…

  7. Amphibian Declines Are Not Uniquely High amongst the Vertebrates: Trend Determination and the British Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Buckley

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Although amphibians have experienced major global declines and an increasing extinction rate, recent results indicate that they are not as uniquely disadvantaged as previously supposed. Acquisition of robust data is evidently crucial to the determination of both absolute and relative rates of biodiversity declines, and thus in prioritising conservation actions. In Britain there is arguably a longer history of recording, and attempting to conserve, a wide range of species groups than anywhere else in the world. This stems from the early activities of Victorian naturalists in the nineteenth century, the establishment of natural history societies and, since the mid-twentieth century, a range of national recording schemes and organisations actively involved in conservation. In this review we summarise comparative evidence for British amphibians and reptiles concerning historical abundance, population trends and their causes, and outline how they relate to the situation elsewhere in Europe (and possibly the World. We discuss possible reasons why the plight of ectothermic vertebrates (fish, amphibians and reptiles seems generally worse than that of endotherms (birds and mammals, as well as research priorities and factors likely to impact amphibians and reptile conservation in future.

  8. Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A.; van der Linden, Giel T. J.; Schaminée, Joop H. J.; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

    2014-01-01

    Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species. PMID:25422416

  9. Measuring trends in leisure

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Aguiar; Erik Hurst

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we use five decades of time-use surveys to document trends in the allocation of time. We find that a dramatic increase in leisure time lies behind the relatively stable number of market hours worked (per working-age adult) between 1965 and 2003. Specifically, we show that leisure for men increased by 6-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in market work hours) and for women by 4-8 hours per week (driven by a decline in home production work hours). This increase in leisure corr...

  10. Trends in Modifiable Risk Factors Are Associated With Declining Incidence of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Acute Coronary Heart Disease in a Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannsverk, Jan; Wilsgaard, Tom; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Rasmussen, Knut; Thelle, Dag S; Njølstad, Inger; Hopstock, Laila Arnesdatter; Bønaa, Kaare Harald

    2016-01-05

    Few studies have used individual person data to study whether contemporary trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease are associated with changes in modifiable coronary risk factors. We identified 29 582 healthy men and women ≥25 years of age who participated in 3 population surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008 in Tromsø, Norway. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for coronary heart disease overall, out-of-hospital sudden death, and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We measured coronary risk factors at each survey and estimated the relationship between changes in risk factors and changes in incidence trends. A total of 1845 participants had an incident acute coronary heart disease event during 375 064 person-years of follow-up from 1994 to 2010. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of total coronary heart disease decreased by 3% (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.0; Pcoronary risk factors accounted for 66% (95% confidence interval, 48-97; Pcoronary heart disease. Favorable changes in cholesterol contributed 32% to the decline, whereas blood pressure, smoking, and physical activity each contributed 14%, 13%, and 9%, respectively. We observed a substantial decline in the incidence of coronary heart disease that was driven by reductions in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in modifiable coronary risk factors accounted for 66% of the decline in coronary heart disease events. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  11. Marital fertility decline in the Netherlands: child mortality, real wages, and unemployment, 1860-1939.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schellekens, Jona; van Poppel, Frans

    2012-08-01

    Previous studies of the fertility decline in Europe are often limited to an earlier stage of the marital fertility decline, when the decline tended to be slower and before the large increase in earnings in the 1920s. Starting in 1860 (before the onset of the decline), this study follows marital fertility trends until 1939, when fertility reached lower levels than ever before. Using data from the Historical Sample of the Netherlands (HSN), this study shows that mortality decline, a rise in real income, and unemployment account for the decline in the Netherlands. This finding suggests that marital fertility decline was an adjustment to social and economic change, leaving little room for attitudinal change that is independent of social and economic change.

  12. A retrospective investigation of energy efficiency standards: policies may have accelerated long term declines in appliance costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Buskirk, R D; Kantner, C L S; Gerke, B F; Chu, S

    2014-01-01

    We perform a retrospective investigation of multi-decade trends in price and life-cycle cost (LCC) for home appliances in periods with and without energy efficiency (EE) standards and labeling polices. In contrast to the classical picture of the impact of efficiency standards, the introduction and updating of appliance standards is not associated with a long-term increase in purchase price; rather, quality-adjusted prices undergo a continued or accelerated long-term decline. In addition, long term trends in appliance LCCs—which include operating costs—consistently show an accelerated long term decline with EE policies. We also show that the incremental price of efficiency improvements has declined faster than the baseline product price for selected products. These observations are inconsistent with a view of EE standards that supposes a perfectly competitive market with static supply costs. These results suggest that EE policies may be associated with other forces at play, such as innovation and learning-by-doing in appliance production and design, that can affect long term trends in quality-adjusted prices and LCCs. (letter)

  13. Citizen Science Program Shows Urban Areas Have Lower Occurrence of Frog Species, but Not Accelerated Declines.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin J Westgate

    Full Text Available Understanding the influence of landscape change on animal populations is critical to inform biodiversity conservation efforts. A particularly important goal is to understand how urban density affects the persistence of animal populations through time, and how these impacts can be mediated by habitat provision; but data on this question are limited for some taxa. Here, we use data from a citizen science monitoring program to investigate the effect of urbanization on patterns of frog species richness and occurrence over 13 years. Sites surrounded by a high proportion of bare ground (a proxy for urbanization had consistently lower frog occurrence, but we found no evidence that declines were restricted to urban areas. Instead, several frog species showed declines in rural wetlands with low-quality habitat. Our analysis shows that urban wetlands had low but stable species richness; but also that population trajectories are strongly influenced by vegetation provision in both the riparian zone and the wider landscape. Future increases in the extent of urban environments in our study area are likely to negatively impact populations of several frog species. However, existing urban areas are unlikely to lose further frog species in the medium term. We recommend that landscape planning and management focus on the conservation and restoration of rural wetlands to arrest current declines, and the revegetation of urban wetlands to facilitate the re-expansion of urban-sensitive species.

  14. Declining amenable mortality: a reflection of health care systems?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianino, Maria Michela; Lenzi, Jacopo; Fantini, Maria Pia; Ricciardi, Walter; Damiani, Gianfranco

    2017-11-15

    Some studies have analyzed the association of health care systems variables, such as health service resources or expenditures, with amenable mortality, but the association of types of health care systems with the decline of amenable mortality has yet to be studied. The present study examines whether specific health care system types are associated with different time trend declines in amenable mortality from 2000 to 2014 in 22 European OECD countries. A time trend analysis was performed. Using Nolte and McKee's list, age-standardized amenable mortality rates (SDRs) were calculated as the annual number of deaths over the population aged 0-74 years per 100,000 inhabitants. We classified health care systems according to a deductively generated classification by Böhm. This classification identifies three dimensions that are not entirely independent of each other but follow a clear order: the regulation dimension is first, followed by the financing dimension and finally service provision. We performed a hierarchical semi-log polynomial regression analysis on the annual SDRs to determine whether specific health care systems were associated with different SDR trajectories over time. The results showed a clear decline in SDRs in all 22 health care systems between 2000 and 2014 although at different annual changes (slopes). Regression analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the slopes according to provision dimension. Health care systems with a private provision exhibited a slowdown in the decline of amenable mortality over time. It therefore seems that ownership is the most relevant dimension in determining a different pattern of decline in mortality. All countries experienced decreases in amenable mortality between 2000 and 2014; this decline seems to be partially a reflection of health care systems, especially when affected by the provision dimension. If the private ownership is maintained or promoted by health systems, these findings might be

  15. Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, S.; Halsall, C. J.; Tych, W.; Kallenborn, R.; Schlabach, M.; Manø, S.

    2012-05-01

    An extensive database of organochlorine (OC) pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994-2005) suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003-2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC) indicate a shift from primary sources, to more "weathered" secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from "new" sources.

  16. Southeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2013) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villena Carpio, Oswaldo; Royle, J. Andrew; Weir, Linda; Foreman, Tasha M.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Campbell Grant, Evan H.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy for eight states of the southeastern United States, based on 13 y (2001–2013) of North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data. The NAAMP is a longterm monitoring program in which observers collect anuran calling observation data at fixed locations along random roadside routes. We assessed occupancy trends for 14 species. We found weak evidence for a general regional pattern of decline in calling anurans within breeding habitats along roads in the southeastern USA over the last 13 y. Two species had positive regional trends with 95% posterior intervals that did not include zero (Hyla cinerea and Pseudacris crucifer). Five other species also showed an increasing trend, while eight species showed a declining trend, although 95% posterior intervals included zero. We also assessed state level trends for 107 species/state combinations. Of these, 14 showed a significant decline and 12 showed a significant increase in occupancy (i.e., credible intervals did not include zero for these 26 trends).

  17. Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

    2017-11-01

    To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25-64 years. Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.

  18. T-Tau is Associated with Objective Memory Decline Over Two Years in Persons Seeking Help for Subjective Cognitive Decline: A Report from the Gothenburg-Oslo MCI Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hessen, Erik; Nordlund, Arto; Stålhammar, Jacob; Eckerström, Marie; Bjerke, Maria; Eckerström, Carl; Göthlin, Mattias; Fladby, Tormod; Reinvang, Ivar; Wallin, Anders

    2015-01-01

    There is a need to find very early markers for pre-clinical Alzheimer's disease as interventions early in the disease process are thought to be most effective. The present study aimed to address the potential relation between cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers and reduced cognitive function in a relatively young cohort of memory clinic patients with subjective cognitive decline. 122 patients (mean age 63 years) with subjective cognitive decline were recruited from two university memory clinics and followed for two years. The main finding was that the subgroup with objective memory decline during the study period had significantly higher T-tau at baseline than the group with improved memory. Baseline CSF variables showed a trend toward more pathological values in the patients with memory decline compared to those who improved or remained stable. The baseline memory score of those who declined was significantly better than the baseline score of those who improved over two years. The general trend for the whole group was improved memory and executive test scores. There were no differences in cognitive scores based on CSF quartiles at baseline, nor were there differences in cognitive outcome for patients with early amnestic mild cognitive impairment versus average cognitive function at baseline. The main finding that T-tau rather than amyloid-β was associated with memory decline do not support the prevailing opinion about the chain of events assumed to take place in Alzheimer's disease. In addition, memory decline was not associated with poor baseline memory score. Thus, a memory cut-off indicating low baseline memory would not would have identified the declining group.

  19. Declining loneliness over time: evidence from american colleges and high schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, D Matthew T; Loxton, Natalie J; Tobin, Stephanie J

    2015-01-01

    We examined changes in loneliness over time. Study 1 was a cross-temporal meta-analysis of 48 samples of American college students who completed the Revised UCLA Loneliness Scale (total N = 13,041). In Study 1, loneliness declined from 1978 to 2009 (d = -0.26). Study 2 used a representative sample of high school students from the Monitoring the Future project (total N = 385,153). In Study 2, loneliness declined from 1991 to 2012. Declines were similar among White students (d = -0.14), Black students (d = -0.17), male students (d = -0.11), and female students (d = -0.11). Different loneliness factors showed diverging trends. Subjective isolation declined (d = -0.20), whereas social network isolation increased (d = 0.06). We discuss the declines in loneliness within the context of other cultural changes, including changes to group membership and personality. © 2014 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

  20. Novel Method of Production Decline Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Shan; Lan, Yifei; He, Lei; Jiao, Yang; Wu, Yong

    2018-02-01

    ARPS decline curves is the most commonly used in oil and gas field due to its minimal data requirements and ease application. And prediction of production decline which is based on ARPS analysis rely on known decline type. However, when coefficient index are very approximate under different decline type, it is difficult to directly recognize decline trend of matched curves. Due to difficulties above, based on simulation results of multi-factor response experiments, a new dynamic decline prediction model is introduced with using multiple linear regression of influence factors. First of all, according to study of effect factors of production decline, interaction experimental schemes are designed. Based on simulated results, annual decline rate is predicted by decline model. Moreover, the new method is applied in A gas filed of Ordos Basin as example to illustrate reliability. The result commit that the new model can directly predict decline tendency without needing recognize decline style. From arithmetic aspect, it also take advantage of high veracity. Finally, the new method improves the evaluation method of gas well production decline in low permeability gas reservoir, which also provides technical support for further understanding of tight gas field development laws.

  1. Trends of tuberculosis prevalence and treatment outcome in an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The annual number of all TB cases showed a rising trend from 914 cases in the year 2000 to 1684 in 2009; but the proportion of new sputum smear (ss+) pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) cases declined (Trend X2 = 7.37, P = 0.007). The average number of extra-pulmonary TB cases increased fourfold from 2000-2004 to ...

  2. The end of the decline in cervical cancer mortality in Spain: trends across the period 1981-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cervantes-Amat, Marta; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Aragonés, Nuria; Pollán, Marina; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz

    2015-04-15

    In Spain, cervical cancer prevention is based on opportunistic screening, due to the disease's traditionally low incidence and mortality rates. Changes in sexual behaviour, tourism and migration have, however, modified the probability of exposure to human papilloma virus among Spaniards. This study thus sought to evaluate recent cervical cancer mortality trends in Spain. We used annual female population figures and individual records of deaths certified as cancer of cervix, reclassifying deaths recorded as unspecified uterine cancer to correct coding quality problems. Joinpoint models were fitted to estimate change points in trends, as well as the annual (APC) and average annual percentage change. Log-linear Poisson models were also used to study age-period-cohort effects on mortality trends and their change points. 1981 marked the beginning of a decline in cervical cancer mortality (APC(1981-2003): -3.2; 95% CI:-3.4;-3.0) that ended in 2003, with rates reaching a plateau in the last decade (APC2003-2012: 0.1; 95% CI:-0.9; 1.2). This trend, which was observable among women aged 45-46 years (APC(2003-2012): 1.4; 95% CI:-0.1;2.9) and over 65 years (APC(2003-2012): -0.1; 95% CI:-1.9;1.7), was clearest in Spain's Mediterranean and Southern regions. The positive influence of opportunistic screening is not strong enough to further reduce cervical cancer mortality rates in the country. Our results suggest that the Spanish Health Authorities should reform current prevention programmes and surveillance strategies in order to confront the challenges posed by cervical cancer.

  3. Long-term decline in the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa in central Chesapeake Bay, USA: An indirect effect of eutrophication?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, David G.; Boynton, Walter R.; Roman, Michael R.

    2012-04-01

    A long-term abundance record of the calanoid copepod Acartia tonsa in the Maryland portion of Chesapeake Bay was compiled from 1966 to 2002. A significant downward trend in the summertime abundance of Acartia tonsa was found in central Chesapeake Bay. We propose that environmental and food web changes occurred as the Chesapeake Bay became increasingly impacted by human activity which eventually led to the overall decline of A. tonsa. Environmental changes included a long-term rise in water temperature and the volume of hypoxic water during the summer. These changes occurred during the same time period as increases in chlorophyll a concentration, declines in the landings of the eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica, and declines in abundance of the sea nettle Chrysaora quinquecirrha. A CUSUM analysis showed that each time-series experienced a change point during over the past 50 years. These changes occurred sequentially, with chlorophyll a concentration increasing beginning in 1969, water temperature and hypoxic volume increasing beginning in the early 1980s, more recent Maryland C. virginica landings begin declining in the early 1980s and A. tonsa and C. quinquecirrha declining starting in 1989. A stepwise regression analysis revealed that the reduction in A. tonsa abundance appeared to be most associated with a decreasing trend in C. quinquecirrha abundance, though only when trends in the two time-series were present. The drop in C. quinquecirrha abundance is associated with reduced predation on the ctenophore, Mnemiopsis leidyi, a key predator of A. tonsa. The long-term decline of A. tonsa has likely impacted trophic transfer to fish, particularly the zooplanktivorous bay anchovy (Anchoa mitchilli). A time-series of bay anchovy juvenile index showed a negative trend and the CUSUM analysis revealed 1993 as its starting point. Total fisheries landings, excluding menhaden (Brevoortia tyrannus), in Chesapeake Bay have also declined during the same period and this

  4. Changing sources and environmental factors reduce the rates of decline of organochlorine pesticides in the Arctic atmosphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Becker

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available An extensive database of organochlorine (OC pesticide concentrations measured at the Norwegian Arctic monitoring station at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, was analysed to assess longer-term trends in the Arctic atmosphere. Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR is employed to investigate the seasonal and cyclical behaviour of chlordanes, DDTs and hexachlorobenzene (HCB, and to isolate underlying inter-annual trends. Although a simple comparison of annual mean concentrations (1994–2005 suggest a decline for all of the OCs investigated, the longer-term trends identified by DHR only show a significant decline for p,p'-DDT. Indeed, HCB shows an increase from 2003–2005. This is thought to be due to changes in source types and the presence of impurities in current use pesticides, together with retreating sea ice affecting air-water exchange. Changes in source types were revealed by using isomeric ratios for the chlordanes and DDTs. Declining trends in ratios of trans-chlordane/cis-chlordane (TC/CC indicate a shift from primary sources, to more "weathered" secondary sources, whereas an increasing trend in o,p'-DDT/p,p'-DDT ratios indicate a shift from use of technical DDT to dicofol. Continued monitoring of these OC pesticides is required to fully understand the influence of a changing climate on the behaviour and environmental cycling of these chemicals in the Arctic as well as possible impacts from "new" sources.

  5. Temporal trends (1986–2005) of essential and non-essential elements in a terrestrial raptor in northern Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bustnes, Jan O., E-mail: Jan.O.Bustnes@nina.no [Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM — High North Research Centre on Climate and the Environment, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway); Bårdsen, Bård-J. [Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM — High North Research Centre on Climate and the Environment, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway); Bangjord, Georg [The Norwegian Directorate for Nature, NO-7485 Trondheim (Norway); Lierhagen, Syverin [Department of Chemistry, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, NO-7491 Trondheim (Norway); Yoccoz, Nigel G. [Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, FRAM — High North Research Centre on Climate and the Environment, NO-9296 Tromsø (Norway); Department of Arctic and Marine Biology, University of Tromsø, NO-9037 Tromsø (Norway)

    2013-08-01

    In the recent decades, the atmospheric deposition of many metals has declined in northern Europe, mostly due to reductions of emissions in other parts of the Europe. However, less is known about the temporal trends at higher trophic levels in terrestrial food chains. In this study we measured 39 different essential and non-essential elements in tawny owl (Strix aluco) tail-feathers (n = 633) collected annually between 1986 and 2005 in Central Norway. There was a strong decline in lead (Pb) concentrations (∼ 94%) consistent with the termination of the use of Pb as a petrol additive. There were also significant declines in cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co) and arsenic (As) concentrations. Zinc (Zn) may also have declined after 2000, but this is not yet clear due to possible analytical problems. More unexpected was a strong decline of boron (B) in the late 1980s and early 1990s with a subsequent leveling-off, but with high concentrations in 1999. The decline in B could be related to changes in the agricultural practices and use of fertilizers. Tin (Sn) showed an abrupt decline in the mid-1990s, after which the concentrations established at one fifth of the level before this time. Iron (Fe) was stable until the late 1990s, but showed an increase afterwards, whereas lanthanum (La) tended to increase up to the mid-1990s and then leveled-off. Aluminum (Al) showed decreasing levels until the mid-1990s, but a considerable increase afterwards. There was a small increase in praseodymium (Pr), but the only element showing a consistent strong increase over the study period (61%) was rubidium (Rb). The causes of the temporal trends in different elements may be changed input to the local ecosystem from local and trans-boundary sources, but possibly also variation in climate and feeding conditions for the owls. - Highlights: • Long-term trends of 39 different elements were analyzed in tawny owl feathers. • Most trends followed the trends observed in moss and precipitation.

  6. Temporal trends (1986–2005) of essential and non-essential elements in a terrestrial raptor in northern Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bustnes, Jan O.; Bårdsen, Bård-J.; Bangjord, Georg; Lierhagen, Syverin; Yoccoz, Nigel G.

    2013-01-01

    In the recent decades, the atmospheric deposition of many metals has declined in northern Europe, mostly due to reductions of emissions in other parts of the Europe. However, less is known about the temporal trends at higher trophic levels in terrestrial food chains. In this study we measured 39 different essential and non-essential elements in tawny owl (Strix aluco) tail-feathers (n = 633) collected annually between 1986 and 2005 in Central Norway. There was a strong decline in lead (Pb) concentrations (∼ 94%) consistent with the termination of the use of Pb as a petrol additive. There were also significant declines in cadmium (Cd), cobalt (Co) and arsenic (As) concentrations. Zinc (Zn) may also have declined after 2000, but this is not yet clear due to possible analytical problems. More unexpected was a strong decline of boron (B) in the late 1980s and early 1990s with a subsequent leveling-off, but with high concentrations in 1999. The decline in B could be related to changes in the agricultural practices and use of fertilizers. Tin (Sn) showed an abrupt decline in the mid-1990s, after which the concentrations established at one fifth of the level before this time. Iron (Fe) was stable until the late 1990s, but showed an increase afterwards, whereas lanthanum (La) tended to increase up to the mid-1990s and then leveled-off. Aluminum (Al) showed decreasing levels until the mid-1990s, but a considerable increase afterwards. There was a small increase in praseodymium (Pr), but the only element showing a consistent strong increase over the study period (61%) was rubidium (Rb). The causes of the temporal trends in different elements may be changed input to the local ecosystem from local and trans-boundary sources, but possibly also variation in climate and feeding conditions for the owls. - Highlights: • Long-term trends of 39 different elements were analyzed in tawny owl feathers. • Most trends followed the trends observed in moss and precipitation.

  7. [An explanation of recent trends in infant mortality in Venezuela].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picouet, M R

    1984-01-01

    An analysis of recent trends in infant mortality in Venezuela is presented using official data. The results show a strong decline up to 1968, followed by a period of fluctuation due to sporadic outbreaks of epidemics. However, the most recent data reveal a continuing decline in mortality, indicating that the problems posed by epidemics have been resolved. (summary in ENG, SPA)

  8. Predicting clinical decline in progressive agrammatic aphasia and apraxia of speech.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitwell, Jennifer L; Weigand, Stephen D; Duffy, Joseph R; Clark, Heather M; Strand, Edythe A; Machulda, Mary M; Spychalla, Anthony J; Senjem, Matthew L; Jack, Clifford R; Josephs, Keith A

    2017-11-28

    To determine whether baseline clinical and MRI features predict rate of clinical decline in patients with progressive apraxia of speech (AOS). Thirty-four patients with progressive AOS, with AOS either in isolation or in the presence of agrammatic aphasia, were followed up longitudinally for up to 4 visits, with clinical testing and MRI at each visit. Linear mixed-effects regression models including all visits (n = 94) were used to assess baseline clinical and MRI variables that predict rate of worsening of aphasia, motor speech, parkinsonism, and behavior. Clinical predictors included baseline severity and AOS type. MRI predictors included baseline frontal, premotor, motor, and striatal gray matter volumes. More severe parkinsonism at baseline was associated with faster rate of decline in parkinsonism. Patients with predominant sound distortions (AOS type 1) showed faster rates of decline in aphasia and motor speech, while patients with segmented speech (AOS type 2) showed faster rates of decline in parkinsonism. On MRI, we observed trends for fastest rates of decline in aphasia in patients with relatively small left, but preserved right, Broca area and precentral cortex. Bilateral reductions in lateral premotor cortex were associated with faster rates of decline of behavior. No associations were observed between volumes and decline in motor speech or parkinsonism. Rate of decline of each of the 4 clinical features assessed was associated with different baseline clinical and regional MRI predictors. Our findings could help improve prognostic estimates for these patients. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

  9. The decline in Australian young male suicide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrell, Stephen; Page, Andrew N; Taylor, Richard J

    2007-02-01

    Since the late 1990s there has been a sharp downward trend in Australian young male suicide. It is possible that a major government youth suicide prevention initiative, the National Youth Suicide Prevention Strategy (NYSPS), implemented during 1995-1999 may have influenced the decline. In this article, we examine time trends in age- and means-specific male and female Australian suicide rates in relation to unemployment rates and the NYSPS. Based on Australian suicide data over the period 1966-2003, we assess secular changes in the 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide rate ratio in relation to the NYSPS, using interrupted time series analysis (ARIMA), since this was previously found to be significantly associated with the 20-24 year male unemployment to total employment ratio. Results show that a dramatic reduction in Australian young male (aged 20-34 years) suicide has occurred since 1997-1998, declining from approximately 40 per 100,000 in 1997-1998 to approximately 20 per 100,000 in 2003. Most of the decline is due to a decrease in suicide by hanging and to a lesser extent from motor vehicle carbon monoxide and other gases. Further, the previously established strong secular association (lasting over 3 decades from 1966) between the rate ratio of 20-24 year male suicide to total (crude) male suicide, and the rate ratio of 20-24 year male unemployment to total unemployment, appears to have been disrupted. ARIMA modelling of the suicide ratio against the initiative indicates a highly significant statistical association between the NYSPS and the suicide ratio reduction but not between the NYSPS and the unemployment indicator trend, suggesting a break in the link between young male suicide and unemployment. The recent sudden turnaround in Australian young male suicide trends and its extent appears to preclude explanations centring on slow-moving social indices traditionally associated with suicide, or on possible cohort effects. This sudden decrease

  10. Publishing and Australian literature : crisis, decline or transformation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bode, Katherine

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The globalisation and consolidation of book publishing is widely seen as having negative consequences for Australian literature. Some commentators argue that this shift is detrimental to Australian literature as a whole; others identify the growth of multinational publishing conglomerates with a specific decline in Australian literary fiction. This article explores both positions, first identifying and investigating trends in Australian novel publication and comparing these to trends in the publication of novels from other countries as well as other Australian-originated literature (specifically, poetry and auto/biography. It then considers the specific case of Australian literary fiction, before looking in detail at the output of large publishers of Australian novels. This analysis reveals a recent decline in Australian novel and poetry titles, but offers a more complex picture of this trend than dominant expressions of nostalgia and alarm about the fate of Australian literature and publishing would suggest.

  11. Publishing and Australian Literature: Crisis, Decline or Transformation?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine Bode

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The globalisation and consolidation of book publishing is widely seen as having negative consequences for Australian literature. Some commentators argue that this shift is detrimental to Australian literature as a whole; others identify the growth of multinational publishing conglomerates with a specific decline in Australian literary fiction. This article explores both positions, first identifying and investigating trends in Australian novel publication and comparing these to trends in the publication of novels from other countries as well as other Australian-originated literature (specifically, poetry and auto/biography. It then considers the specific case of Australian literary fiction, before looking in detail at the output of large publishers of Australian novels. This analysis reveals a recent decline in Australian novel and poetry titles, but offers a more complex picture of this trend than dominant expressions of nostalgia and alarm about the fate of Australian literature and publishing would suggest.

  12. Trends in radiopharmaceutical dispensing in a regional nuclear pharmacy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basmadjian, G.P.; Johnston, J.; Barker, K.; Ice, R.D.

    1982-01-01

    Dispensing trends for radiopharmaceuticals at a regional nuclear pharmacy over a 51-month period were studied. dispensing records of a regional nuclear pharmacy were analyzed with a forecasting procedure that uses univariate time data to produce time trends and autoregressive models. The overall number of prescriptions increased from 3500 to 5500 per quarter. Radiopharmaceuticals used in nuclear cardiology studies increased from less than 0.1% to 17.5% of total prescriptions dispensed, while radiopharmaceuticals used for brain imaging showed a steady decline from 29% to 11% of total prescriptions dispensed. The demand for other radiopharmaceuticals increased in areas such as renal studies, bone studies, lung studies, liver-function studies, and 67 Ga tumor-uptake studies, and declined slightly for static liver studies. Changes in dispensing trends for radiopharmaceuticals will continue as the practice of nuclear medicine concentrates more on functional studies and as newer imaging techniques become used for other purposes

  13. Is Declining malaria vector population in Africa a result of intervention Measures or sampling tools inefficiency?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliningaya Kweka

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent entomological surveys have shown a declining trend of malaria vector population in sub-Saharan Africa and the observation have beenassociated with the scale-up and intensive use of malaria intervention measures such as insecticides treated nets and insecticide residual sprays.However, little is known on the contribution of the mosquito sampling tools inefficiency on the declining trends of malaria vector population. Inthis commentary paper, we explore the possibility of contribution of mosquito sampling tools’ inefficiency to the observed declining trends ofmalaria vector population in Africa.

  14. Has spring snowpack declined in the Washington Cascades?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Mote

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Our best estimates of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE in the Cascade Mountains of Washington State indicate a substantial (roughly 15–35% decline from mid-century to 2006, with larger declines at low elevations and smaller declines or increases at high elevations. This range of values includes estimates from observations and hydrologic modeling, reflects a range of starting points between about 1930 and 1970 and also reflects uncertainties about sampling. The most important sampling issue springs from the fact that half the 1 April SWE in the Cascades is found below about 1240 m, altitudes at which sampling was poor before 1945. Separating the influences of temperature and precipitation on 1 April SWE in several ways, it is clear that long-term trends are dominated by trends in temperature, whereas variability in precipitation adds "noise" to the time series. Consideration of spatial and temporal patterns of change rules out natural variations like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as the sole cause of the decline. Regional warming has clearly played a role, but it is not yet possible to quantify how much of that regional warming is related to greenhouse gas emissions.

  15. Trends in radionuclide concentrations for wildlife and food products near Hanford for the period 1971-1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadwell, L.L.; Eberhardt, L.E.; Price, K.R.; Carlile, D.W.

    1990-01-01

    We evaluated the Hanford environmental data base for trends in radionuclide concentrations in wildlife and food products sampled from 1971 through 1988 on or near the U.S. Department of Energy's Hanford Site in southeastern Washington. Although statistical analyses showed short-term changes, no upward trends in radionuclide concentrations were detected. Many samples showed a significant decline in some radionuclides, particularly for 137 Cs. Concentrations of 65 Zn also showed a downward trend in many samples. Cessation of atmospheric testing by the United States and the USSR in 1971 contributed to the decline in radionuclide levels in some samples. Contaminants discharged to the Columbia River at Hanford were reduced after shutdown of the last once-through cooling-water reactor in 1971. A decline in concentrations of 65 Zn in oysters from Willapa Bay and 60 Co and 65 Zn in mountain whitefish from the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River are attributable to reactor closure. There was also an apparent reduction in availability of radiological contamination to Hanford wildlife after decommissioning of waste-water disposal ponds and remediation of contaminated terrestrial sites

  16. What distinguishes passive recipients from active decliners of sales flyers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Orquin, Jacob Lund; Bech-Larsen, Tino

    2014-01-01

    While sales flyer ad spending in Denmark has increased over the last decade ,the proportion of consumers declining to receive such flyers has been ever-increasing. To address this paradox, attitudinal and behavioural factors distinguishing passive recipients from active decliners of sales flyers ...... on the Internet.To reach the decliners, retailers could focus on the possibilities of the Internet, but to stop the trend of escalating numbers of decliners, retailers will have to address the perceived inconvenience and uselessness of sales flyers....

  17. Unexpected decline in tuberculosis cases coincident with economic recession -- United States, 2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winston Carla A

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Since 1953, through the cooperation of state and local health departments, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC has collected information on incident cases of tuberculosis (TB disease in the United States. In 2009, TB case rates declined -11.4%, compared to an average annual -3.8% decline since 2000. The unexpectedly large decline raised concerns that TB cases may have gone unreported. To address the unexpected decline, we examined trends from multiple sources on TB treatment initiation, medication sales, and laboratory and genotyping data on culture-positive TB. Methods We analyzed 142,174 incident TB cases reported to the U. S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System (NTSS during January 1, 2000-December 31, 2009; TB control program data from 59 public health reporting areas; self-reported data from 50 CDC-funded public health laboratories; monthly electronic prescription claims for new TB therapy prescriptions; and complete genotyping results available for NTSS cases. Accounting for prior trends using regression and time-series analyses, we calculated the deviation between observed and expected TB cases in 2009 according to patient and clinical characteristics, and assessed at what point in time the deviation occurred. Results The overall deviation in TB cases in 2009 was -7.9%, with -994 fewer cases reported than expected (P Conclusions Our assessments show that the decline in reported TB was not an artifact of changes in surveillance methods; rather, similar declines were found through multiple data sources. While the steady decline of TB cases before 2009 suggests ongoing improvement in TB control, we were not able to identify any substantial change in TB control activities or TB transmission that would account for the abrupt decline in 2009. It is possible that other multiple causes coincident with economic recession in the United States, including decreased immigration and delayed access to

  18. Deflation Expectation Financial System and Decline in Money Multiplier(in Japanese)

    OpenAIRE

    IIDA Yasuyuki

    2005-01-01

    The money multiplier is in a continuous downward trend now since the bubble burst, and, in addition, the trend has accelerated after 2000. It is said that the monetary policy is difficult because the money multiplier has declined. To think about the monetary policy for the future, we should think about the cause of the decline of the money multiplier. I want to verify two typical hypotheses "Deflation Expectation Hypothesis" and "Financial System Hypothesis" for the decision of the money mult...

  19. The contributions of risk factor trends and medical care to cardiovascular mortality trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezzati, Majid; Obermeyer, Ziad; Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Mayosi, Bongani M; Elliott, Paul; Leon, David A

    2016-01-01

    Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and other cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are responsible for an estimated 17.5 million annual deaths in the world. If account is taken of population aging, death rates from CVDs are estimated to be steadily decreasing in the world as a whole, and in regions with reliable trend data. The declines in high-income countries and some countries in Latin America have been ongoing for decades with no indication of slowing. In high-income countries, these positive trends have broadly coincided with, and benefited from, declines in smoking and physiological risk factors like blood pressure and serum cholesterol. Improvements in medical care, including effective primary prevention through management of physiological risk factors, better diagnosis and treatment of acute CVDs, and post-hospital care of those with prior CVDs, are also likely to have contributed to declining CVD event and death rates, especially in the past 40 years. However, the measured risk factor and treatment variables neither explain why the decline began when it did, nor much of the similarities and differences in the start time and rate of the decline across countries or between men and women. There have been sharp changes and fluctuations in CVDs in the former communist countries of Europe and the Soviet Union since the fall of communism in the early 1990s, with changes in volume and patterns of alcohol drinking, as a major cause of the rise in Russia and some other former Soviet countries. The challenge of reaching more definitive conclusions concerning the drivers of what constitutes one of the most remarkable international trends in adult mortality in the past half-century in part reflects the paucity of time trend data not only on disease incidence, risk factors, and clinical care, but also on other potential drivers, including infection and associated inflammatory processes throughout the lifecourse. PMID:26076950

  20. Post-White-nose syndrome trends in Virginia’s cave bats, 2008-2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, Karen E.; Reynolds, Richard J.; Orndorff, Wil; Ford, W. Mark; Hobson, Christopher S.

    2015-01-01

    Since its 2009 detection in Virginia hibernacula, the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans causing White-nose Syndrome (WNS) has had a marked impact on cave bats locally. From 2008-2013, we documented numeric and physiologic changes in cave bats through fall swarm (FS), early hibernation (EH), and late hibernation (LH) capture and banding surveys at 18 hibernacula in western Virginia. We coupled active surveys with passive biennial winter counts in 2009, 2011, and 2013. We compared individual body mass index (BMI) across years for FS, EH, and LH hibernation to determine if WNS impacts on extant bats would be manifested by changes in body condition (as anecdotally observed elsewhere for WNS-impacted bats) as well as a population reduction. To estimate percent declines in bat presence or relative activity, we used FS capture per-unit-effort data, and the winter hibernacula absolute counts. We captured 4,524 bats of eight species, with species-specific capture success declining by 75-100% post-WNS. Little brown bats (Myotis lucifugus) exhibited the greatest declines in winter hibernacula counts (AVG. = 99.0% decline), followed by tri-colored bats (Perimyotis subflavus; 89.5% decline) and Indiana bats (M. sodalis; 33.5% decline). Graphical analyses of captures-per-trap-hour in FS showed declines for little brown bats, tri-colored bats, and northern long-eared bats (M. septentrionalis), but suggest a modest rebound of Indiana bat numbers. Fall swarm trends in BMI suggested some drops post-WNS exposure, but these trends were not consistent across sexes or seasonal time blocks. Our inconclusive BMI metrics and little brown bat band recapture data suggest little competitive advantage or selection for surviving bats. Lesser (but apparent) declines in Indiana bat numbers mirrors trends seen elsewhere regionally, and band recoveries do show that some individuals are persisting. Additional surveys will determine if bats in Virginia will persist or face extirpation due

  1. Recovery trends in marine mammal populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M Magera

    Full Text Available Marine mammals have greatly benefitted from a shift from resource exploitation towards conservation. Often lauded as symbols of conservation success, some marine mammal populations have shown remarkable recoveries after severe depletions. Others have remained at low abundance levels, continued to decline, or become extinct or extirpated. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of (1 publicly available population-level abundance data for marine mammals worldwide, (2 abundance trends and recovery status, and (3 historic population decline and recent recovery. We compiled 182 population abundance time series for 47 species and identified major data gaps. In order to compare across the largest possible set of time series with varying data quality, quantity and frequency, we considered an increase in population abundance as evidence of recovery. Using robust log-linear regression over three generations, we were able to classify abundance trends for 92 spatially non-overlapping populations as Significantly Increasing (42%, Significantly Decreasing (10%, Non-Significant Change (28% and Unknown (20%. Our results were comparable to IUCN classifications for equivalent species. Among different groupings, pinnipeds and other marine mammals (sirenians, polar bears and otters showed the highest proportion of recovering populations, likely benefiting from relatively fast life histories and nearshore habitats that provided visibility and protective management measures. Recovery was less frequent among cetaceans, but more common in coastal than offshore populations. For marine mammals with available historical abundance estimates (n = 47, larger historical population declines were associated with low or variable recent recoveries so far. Overall, our results show that many formerly depleted marine mammal populations are recovering. However, data-deficient populations and those with decreasing and non-significant trends require attention. In particular

  2. Changes in nectar supply: A possible cause of widespread butterfly decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wallis de Vries, M.F.; Swaay, van C.A.M.; Plate, C.L.

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have documented declining trends of various groups of flower-visiting insects, even common butterfly species. Causes of these declines are still unclear but the loss of habitat quality across the wider countryside is thought to be a major factor. Nectar supply constitutes one of the

  3. Contrasting drivers and trends of coniferous and deciduous tree growth in interior Alaska.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahoon, Sean M P; Sullivan, Patrick F; Brownlee, Annalis H; Pattison, Robert R; Andersen, Hans-Erik; Legner, Kate; Hollingsworth, Teresa N

    2018-03-22

    The boreal biome represents approximately one third of the world's forested area and plays an important role in global biogeochemical and energy cycles. Numerous studies in boreal Alaska have concluded that growth of black and white spruce is declining as a result of temperature-induced drought stress. The combined evidence of declining spruce growth and changes in the fire regime that favor establishment of deciduous tree species has led some investigators to suggest the region may be transitioning from dominance by spruce to dominance by deciduous forests and/or grasslands. Although spruce growth trends have been extensively investigated, few studies have evaluated long-term radial growth trends of the dominant deciduous species (Alaska paper birch and trembling aspen) and their sensitivity to moisture availability. We used a large and spatially extensive sample of tree cores from interior Alaska to compare long-term growth trends among contrasting tree species (white and black spruce vs. birch and aspen). All species showed a growth peak in the mid-1940s, although growth following the peak varied strongly across species. Following an initial decline from the peak, growth of white spruce showed little evidence of a trend, while black spruce and birch growth showed slight growth declines from ~1970 to present. Aspen growth was much more variable than the other species and showed a steep decline from ~1970 to present. Growth of birch, black and white spruce was sensitive to moisture availability throughout most of the tree-ring chronologies, as evidenced by negative correlations with air temperature and positive correlations with precipitation. However, a positive correlation between previous July precipitation and aspen growth disappeared in recent decades, corresponding with a rise in the population of the aspen leaf miner (Phyllocnistis populiella), an herbivorous moth, which may have driven growth to a level not seen since the early 20th century. Our results

  4. Warfare and wildlife declines in Africa's protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskin, Joshua H; Pringle, Robert M

    2018-01-18

    Large-mammal populations are ecological linchpins, and their worldwide decline and extinction disrupts many ecosystem functions and services. Reversal of this trend will require an understanding of the determinants of population decline, to enable more accurate predictions of when and where collapses will occur and to guide the development of effective conservation and restoration policies. Many correlates of large-mammal declines are known, including low reproductive rates, overhunting, and habitat destruction. However, persistent uncertainty about the effects of one widespread factor-armed conflict-complicates conservation-planning and priority-setting efforts. Case studies have revealed that conflict can have either positive or negative local impacts on wildlife, but the direction and magnitude of its net effect over large spatiotemporal scales have not previously been quantified. Here we show that conflict frequency predicts the occurrence and severity of population declines among wild large herbivores in African protected areas from 1946 to 2010. Conflict was extensive during this period, occurring in 71% of protected areas, and conflict frequency was the single most important predictor of wildlife population trends among the variables that we analysed. Population trajectories were stable in peacetime, fell significantly below replacement with only slight increases in conflict frequency (one conflict-year per two-to-five decades), and were almost invariably negative in high-conflict sites, both in the full 65-year dataset and in an analysis restricted to recent decades (1989-2010). Yet total population collapse was infrequent, indicating that war-torn faunas can often recover. Human population density was also correlated (positively) with wildlife population trajectories in recent years; however, we found no significant effect, in either timespan, of species body mass, protected-area size, conflict intensity (human fatalities), drought frequency, presence of

  5. Pollinator declines: reconciling scales and implications for ecosystem services [v1; ref status: indexed, http://f1000r.es/14f

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignasi Bartomeus

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Despite the widespread concern about the fate of pollinators and the ecosystem services they deliver, we still have surprisingly scarce scientific data on the magnitude of pollinator declines and its actual contribution to crop pollination and food security. We use recently published data from northeastern North America to show that studies at both the local and regional scales are needed to understand pollinator declines, and that species-specific responses to global change are broadly consistent across scales. Second, we show that bee species that are currently delivering most of the ecosystem services (i.e. crop pollination are not among the species showing declining trends, but rather appear to thrive in human-dominated landscapes.

  6. Respiratory muscle decline in Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khirani, Sonia; Ramirez, Adriana; Aubertin, Guillaume; Boulé, Michèle; Chemouny, Chrystelle; Forin, Véronique; Fauroux, Brigitte

    2014-05-01

    Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD) causes progressive respiratory muscle weakness. The aim of the study was to analyze the trend of a large number of respiratory parameters to gain further information on the course of the disease. Retrospective study. 48 boys with DMD, age range between 6 and 19 year old, who were followed in our multidisciplinary neuromuscular clinic between 2001 and 2011. Lung function, blood gases, respiratory mechanics, and muscle strength were measured during routine follow-up over a 10-year period. Only data from patients with at least two measurements were retained. The data of 28 patients were considered for analysis. Four parameters showed an important decline with age. Gastric pressure during cough (Pgas cough) was below normal in all patients with a mean decline of 5.7 ± 3.8 cmH2 O/year. Sniff nasal inspiratory pressure (SNIP) tended to increase first followed by a rapid decline (mean decrease 4.8 ± 4.9 cmH2 O; 5.2 ± 4.4% predicted/year). Absolute forced vital capacity (FVC) values peaked around the age of 13-14 years and remained mainly over 1 L but predicted values showed a mean 4.1 ± 4.4% decline/year. Diaphragmatic tension-time index (TTdi) increased above normal values after the age of 14 years with a mean increase of 0.04 ± 0.04 point/year. This study confirms the previous findings that FVC and SNIP are among the most important parameters to monitor the evolution of DMD. Expiratory muscle strength, assessed by Pgas cough, and the endurance index, TTdi, which are reported for the first time in a large cohort, appeared to be informative too, even though measured through an invasive method. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  7. Do climate model predictions agree with long-term precipitation trends in the arid southwestern United States?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elias, E.; Rango, A.; James, D.; Maxwell, C.; Anderson, J.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2016-12-01

    Researchers evaluating climate projections across southwestern North America observed a decreasing precipitation trend. Aridification was most pronounced in the cold (non-monsoonal) season, whereas downward trends in precipitation were smaller in the warm (monsoonal) season. In this region, based upon a multimodel mean of 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 models using a business-as-usual (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) trajectory, midcentury precipitation is projected to increase slightly during the monsoonal time period (July-September; 6%) and decrease slightly during the remainder of the year (October-June; -4%). We use observed long-term (1915-2015) monthly precipitation records from 16 weather stations to investigate how well measured trends corroborate climate model predictions during the monsoonal and non-monsoonal timeframe. Running trend analysis using the Mann-Kendall test for 15 to 101 year moving windows reveals that half the stations showed significant (p≤0.1), albeit small, increasing trends based on the longest term record. Trends based on shorter-term records reveal a period of significant precipitation decline at all stations representing the 1950s drought. Trends from 1930 to 2015 reveal significant annual, monsoonal and non-monsoonal increases in precipitation (Fig 1). The 1960 to 2015 time window shows no significant precipitation trends. The more recent time window (1980 to 2015) shows a slight, but not significant, increase in monsoonal precipitation and a larger, significant decline in non-monsoonal precipitation. GCM precipitation projections are consistent with more recent trends for the region. Running trends from the most recent time window (mid-1990s to 2015) at all stations show increasing monsoonal precipitation and decreasing Oct-Jun precipitation, with significant trends at 6 of 16 stations. Running trend analysis revealed that the long-term trends were not persistent throughout the series length, but depended

  8. Trends in Decline of Antiretroviral Resistance among ARV-Experienced Patients in the HIV Outpatient Study: 1999–2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kate Buchacz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Little is known about temporal trends in frequencies of clinically relevant ARV resistance mutations in HIV strains from U.S. patients undergoing genotypic testing (GT in routine HIV care. Methods. We analyzed cumulative frequency of HIV resistance among patients in the HIV Outpatient Study (HOPS who, during 1999–2008 and while prescribed antiretrovirals, underwent GT with plasma HIV RNA >1,000 copies/mL. Exposure ≥4 months to each of three major antiretroviral classes (NRTI, NNRTI and PI was defined as triple-class exposure (TCE. Results. 906 patients contributed 1,570 GT results. The annual frequency of any major resistance mutations decreased during 1999–2008 (88% to 79%, P=0.05. Resistance to PIs decreased among PI-exposed patients (71% to 46%, P=0.010 as exposure to ritonavir-boosted PIs increased (6% to 81%, P<0.001. Non-significant declines were observed in resistance to NRTIs among NRTI-exposed (82% to 67%, and triple-class-resistance among TCE patients (66% to 41%, but not to NNRTIs among NNRTI-exposed. Conclusions. HIV resistance was common but declined in HIV isolates from subgroups of ARV-experienced HOPS patients during 1999–2008. Resistance to PIs among PI-exposed patients decreased, possibly due to increased representation of patients whose only PI exposures were to boosted PIs.

  9. Declining groundwater level caused by irrigation to row crops in the Lower Mississippi River Basin, Current Situation and Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, G.; Gao, F.; Ouyang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The Mississippi River is North America's largest river and the second largest watershed in the world. It flows over 3,700 km through America's heartland to the Gulf of Mexico. Over 3 million hectares in the Lower Mississippi River Basin represent irrigated cropland and 90 percent of those lands currently rely on the groundwater supply. The primary crops grown in this region are soybean, corn, cotton, and rice. Increased water withdrawals for irrigating those crops and stagnant recharging jeopardize the long-term availability of the aquifer and place irrigation agriculture in the region on an unsustainable path. The objectives of this study were to: 1) analyze the current groundwater level in the Lower Mississippi River Basin based on the water table depth observed by Yazoo Mississippi Delta Joint Water Management District from 2000 and 2016; 2) determine trends of change in groundwater level under conventional and groundwater saving irrigation management practices (ET or soil moisture based full irrigation scheduling using all groundwater or different percentages of ground and surface water). The coupled SWAT and MODFLOW model was applied to investigate the trends. Observed results showed that the groundwater level has declined from 33 to 26 m at an annual decrease rate of 0.4 m in the past 17 years. Simulated results revealed that the groundwater storage was decreased by 26 cm/month due to irrigation in crop season. It is promising that the groundwater storage was increased by 23 cm/month, sometimes even 60 cm/month in crop off-growing season because of recharge from rainfall. Our results suggest that alternative ET or soil moisture based groundwater saving irrigation scheduling with conjunctive use of surface water is a sustainable practice for irrigated agriculture in in the Lower Mississippi River Basin.

  10. Trends in Global Gender Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates trends in gender inequality throughout the world. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine trends in recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually…

  11. Human Population Decline in North America during the Younger Dryas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. G.; Goodyear, A. C.; Stafford, T. W., Jr.; Kennett, J.; West, A.

    2009-12-01

    There is ongoing debate about a possible human population decline or contraction at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) at 12.9 ka. We used two methods to test whether the YD affected human population levels: (1) frequency analyses of Paleoindian projectile points, and (2) summed probability analyses of radiocarbon (14C) dates. The results suggest that a significant decline or reorganization of human populations occurred at 12.9 ka, continued through the initial centuries of the YD chronozone, then rebounded by the end of the YD. FREQUENCY ANALYSES: This method employed projectile point data from the Paleoindian Database of the Americas (PIDBA, http://pidba.utk.edu). We tallied diagnostic projectile points and obtained larger totals for Clovis points than for immediately post-Clovis points, which share an instrument-assisted fluting technique, typically using pressure or indirect percussion. Gainey, Vail, Debert, Redstone, and Cumberland point-styles utilized this method and are comparable to the Folsom style. For the SE U.S., the ratio of Clovis points (n=1993) to post-Clovis points (n=947) reveals a point decline of 52%. For the Great Plains, a comparison of Clovis and fluted points (n=4020) to Folsom points (n=2527) shows a point decline of 37%, which may translate into a population contraction of similar magnitude. In addition, eight major Clovis lithic quarry sites in the SE U.S. exhibit little to no evidence for immediate post-Clovis occupations, implying a major population decline. SUMMED PROBABILITIES: This method involved calibrating relevant 14C dates and combining the probabilities, after which major peaks and troughs in the trends are assumed to reflect changes in human demographics. Using 14C dates from Buchanan et al. (2008), we analyzed multiple regions, including the Southeast and Great Plains. Contrary to Buchanan et al., we found an abrupt, statistically significant decline at 12.9 ka, followed 200 to 900 years later by a rebound in the number of

  12. Incidence and mortality of lung cancer: global trends and association with socioeconomic status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Martin C S; Lao, Xiang Qian; Ho, Kin-Fai; Goggins, William B; Tse, Shelly L A

    2017-10-30

    We examined the correlation between lung cancer incidence/mortality and country-specific socioeconomic development, and evaluated its most recent global trends. We retrieved its age-standardized incidence rates from the GLOBOCAN database, and temporal patterns were assessed from global databases. We employed simple linear regression analysis to evaluate their correlations with Human Development Index (HDI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita. The average annual percent changes (AAPC) of the trends were evaluated from join-point regression analysis. Country-specific HDI was strongly correlated with age-standardized incidence (r = 0.70) and mortality (r = 0.67), and to a lesser extent GDP (r = 0.24 to 0.55). Among men, 22 and 30 (out of 38 and 36) countries showed declining incidence and mortality trends, respectively; whilst among women, 19 and 16 countries showed increasing incidence and mortality trends, respectively. Among men, the AAPCs ranged from -2.8 to -0.6 (incidence) and -3.6 to -1.1 (mortality) in countries with declining trend, whereas among women the AAPC range was 0.4 to 8.9 (incidence) and 1 to 4.4 (mortality) in countries with increasing trend. Among women, Brazil, Spain and Cyprus had the greatest incidence increase, and all countries in Western, Southern and Eastern Europe reported increasing mortality. These findings highlighted the need for targeted preventive measures.

  13. Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mensah, George A; Wei, Gina S; Sorlie, Paul D; Fine, Lawrence J; Rosenberg, Yves; Kaufmann, Peter G; Mussolino, Michael E; Hsu, Lucy L; Addou, Ebyan; Engelgau, Michael M; Gordon, David

    2017-01-20

    If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead. © 2017 American Heart

  14. Enhanced MODIS Atmospheric Total Water Vapour Content Trends in Response to Arctic Amplification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dunya Alraddawi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the strength of the water vapour feedback within Arctic climate change, 15 years of the total column-integrated density of water vapour (TCWV from the moderate resolution imaging spectrometer (MODIS are analysed. Arctic TCWV distribution, trends, and anomalies for the 2001–2015 period, broken down into seasons and months, are analysed. Enhanced local spring TCWV trends above the terrestrial Arctic regions are discussed in relation to land snow cover and vegetation changes. Upward TCWV trends above the oceanic areas are discussed in lien with sea ice extent and sea surface temperature changes. Increased winter TCWV (up to 40% south of the Svalbard archipelago are observed; these trends are probably driven by a local warming and sea ice extent decline. Similarly, the Barents/Kara regions underwent wet trends (up to 40%, also associated with winter/fall local sea ice loss. Positive late summer TCWV trends above the western Greenland and Beaufort seas (about 20% result from enhanced upper ocean warming and thereby a local coastal decline in ice extent. The Mackenzie and Siberia enhanced TCWV trends (about 25% during spring are found to be associated with coincident decreased snow cover and increased vegetation, as a result of the earlier melt onset. Results show drier summers in the Eurasia and western Alaska regions, thought to be affected by changes in albedo from changing vegetation. Other TCWV anomalies are also presented and discussed in relation to the dramatic decline in sea ice extent and the exceptional rise in sea surface temperature.

  15. Smoking prevalence in Medicaid has been declining at a negligible rate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu-Hong Zhu

    Full Text Available In recent decades the overall smoking prevalence in the US has fallen steadily. This study examines whether the same trend is seen in the Medicaid population.National Health Interview Survey (NHIS data from 17 consecutive annual surveys from 1997 to 2013 (combined N = 514,043 were used to compare smoking trends for 4 insurance groups: Medicaid, the Uninsured, Private Insurance, and Other Coverage. Rates of chronic disease and psychological distress were also compared.Adjusted smoking prevalence showed no detectable decline in the Medicaid population (from 33.8% in 1997 to 31.8% in 2013, trend test P = 0.13, while prevalence in the other insurance groups showed significant declines (38.6%-34.7% for the Uninsured, 21.3%-15.8% for Private Insurance, and 22.6%-16.8% for Other Coverage; all P's<0.005. Among individuals who have ever smoked, Medicaid recipients were less likely to have quit (38.8% than those in Private Insurance (62.3% or Other Coverage (69.8%; both P's<0.001. Smokers in Medicaid were more likely than those in Private Insurance and the Uninsured to have chronic disease (55.0% vs 37.3% and 32.4%, respectively; both P's<0.01. Smokers in Medicaid were also more likely to experience severe psychological distress (16.2% for Medicaid vs 3.2% for Private Insurance and 7.6% for the Uninsured; both P's<0.001.The high and relatively unchanging smoking prevalence in the Medicaid population, low quit ratio, and high rates of chronic disease and severe psychological distress highlight the need to focus on this population. A targeted and sustained campaign to help Medicaid recipients quit smoking is urgently needed.

  16. [Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

    2018-03-01

    Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

  17. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

    2016-01-01

    We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual

  18. Europe-wide fertility trends since the 1990s: Turning the corner from declining first birth rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marion Burkimsher

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the period 1995-2002 there was a change in trajectory from decline to rise in first birth fertility rates across Europe. Objective: A number of previous studies have looked at the demographic causes of the transition. This study evaluates their conclusions by analysing a comprehensive set of indicators for fifteen countries with data in the Human Fertility Database. Methods: Comparisons are made between the four years before and after the fertility trough, to discover what changed between these two periods. Results: In the period before the trough, peak age-specific fertility rates were falling; these tended to stabilise after the year of minimum fertility. The width of the fertility curve, however, was already widening in the 1990s, and this trend continued. The transition from fall to rise in TFR1 occurred when the increase in the width of the curve more than compensated for any further falls in peak rates; this explanation is valid for countries in both Eastern and Western Europe. The increasing width of the fertility curve was caused by two factors: the decline in young (pre-modal fertility slowed, whilst the rise in older (post-modal fertility accelerated. For some countries, a rise in underlying cohort rates also contributed to the rise in period rates. The likelihood of childless women entering motherhood also rose in some but not all countries. Conclusions: During the 1990s, women were postponing first births across Europe. A rebound took place for several reasons, with the overarching driver being the strong rise in late fertility. Comments: In some countries the steep rise in late fertility had an unexpected and paradoxical effect on postponement rates (defined as the year-on-year increase in mean age at first birth. Recuperation at post-modal ages of postponed first births caused an acceleration in 'postponement' rates, as defined by this metric.

  19. Cardiovascular disease mortality in the Americas: current trends and disparities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Fatima Marinho de Souza, Maria; Gawryszewski, Vilma Pinheiro; Orduñez, Pedro; Sanhueza, Antonio; Espinal, Marcos A

    2012-08-01

    To describe the current situation and trends in mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Americas and explore their association with economic indicators. This time series study analysed mortality data from 21 countries in the region of the Americas from 2000 to the latest available year. Age-adjusted death rates, annual variation in death rates. Regression analysis was used to estimate the annual variation and the association between age-adjusted rates and country income. Currently, CVD comprised 33.7% of all deaths in the Americas. Rates were higher in Guyana (292/100 000), Trinidad and Tobago (289/100 000) and Venezuela (246/100 000), and lower in Canada (108/100 000), Puerto Rico (121/100 000) and Chile (125/100 000). Male rates were higher than female rates in all countries. The trend analysis showed that CVD death rates in the Americas declined -19% overall (-20% among women and -18% among men). Most countries had a significant annual decline, except Guatemala, Guyana, Suriname, Paraguay and Panama. The largest annual declines were observed in Canada (-4.8%), the USA (-3.9%) and Puerto Rico (-3.6%). Minor declines were in Mexico (-0.8%) and Cuba (-1.1%). Compared with high-income countries the difference between the median of death rates in lower middle-income countries was 56.7% higher and between upper middle-income countries was 20.6% higher. CVD death rates have been decreasing in most countries in the Americas. Considerable disparities still remain in the current rates and trends.

  20. Gains Made By Walmart's Healthier Food Initiative Mirror Preexisting Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taillie, Lindsey Smith; Ng, Shu Wen; Popkin, Barry M

    2015-11-01

    Healthier food initiatives conducted by national food retailers may offer opportunities to improve the nutritional profile of food purchases. Using a longitudinal data set of packaged food purchases made by US households, we examined the effect of a healthier food initiative officially launched by Walmart in 2011. From 2000 to 2013, household-level purchases of packaged foods at Walmart showed major declines in energy, sodium, and total sugar density, as well as in quantities of sugary beverages, grain-based desserts, snacks, and candy. These trends in packaged food purchases were more pronounced than similar concurrent trends seen at other major food retailers. However, the declines seen at Walmart after the initiative's official implementation did not exceed what would have been expected had pre-implementation trends continued, and therefore they cannot be attributed to the initiative. These results suggest that food retailer-based initiatives that purportedly create a healthier food environment may not suffice to improve the nutritional profile of food purchases. More systemic shifts in consumers' characteristics and preferences may be needed. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

  1. Trends in income and price elasticities of transport demand (1850–2010)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fouquet, Roger

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate trends in income and price elasticities and to offer insights for the future growth in transport use, with particular emphasis on the impact of energy and technological transitions. The results indicate that income and price elasticities of passenger transport demand in the United Kingdom were very large (3.1 and −1.5, respectively) in the mid-nineteenth century, and declined since then. In 2010, long run income and price elasticity of aggregate land transport demand were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. These trends suggest that future elasticities related to transport demand in developed economies may decline very gradually and, in developing economies, where elasticities are often larger, they will probably decline more rapidly as the economies develop. Because of the declining trends in elasticities, future energy and technological transitions are not likely to generate the growth rates in energy consumption that occurred following transitions in the nineteenth century. Nevertheless, energy and technological transitions, such as the car and the airplane, appear to have delayed and probably will delay declining trends in income and price elasticity of aggregate transport demand. - Highlights: ► Estimates trends in income and price elasticities of aggregate UK land transport demand (1850–2010). ► Income and price elasticities were very large in late 1800s and declined since then. ► In 2010, they were estimated to be 0.8 and −0.6. ► Future elasticities are likely to decline gradually in developed economies and faster in developing economies. ► Energy transitions may delay the decline in elasticities.

  2. Divergent mortality trends by ethnicity in Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard; Carter, Karen; Naidu, Shivnay; Linhart, Christine; Azim, Syed; Rao, Chalapati; Lopez, Alan D

    2013-12-01

    To examine trends in infant mortality rate (IMR), adult mortality and life expectancy (LE) in the two major Fijian ethnic groups since 1975. Estimates of IMR, adult mortality (15-59 years) and LE by ethnicity are calculated from previously unreported Fiji Ministry of Health data and extracted from published sources. Over 1975-2008: IMR decreased from 33 to 20 deaths/1,000 live births in i-Taukei (Fiji Melanesians); and 38 to 18 in Fijians of Indian descent. Increased adult male mortality among i-Taukei and decline among Fijians of Indian descent led to an equal probability of dying in 2007 of 29%; while in female adults the probability trended upwards in i-Taukei to 25%, and declined in Fijians of Indian descent to 17%. Life expectancy in both ethnicities increased until 1985 (to 64 years for males; 68 for females) then forming a plateau in males of both ethnicities, and Fijian females of Indian descent, but declining in i-Taukei females to 66 years in 2007. Despite IMR declines over 1975-2008, LE for i-Taukei and Fijians of Indian descent has not increased since 1985, and has actually decreased in i-Taukei women, consistent with trends in adult mortality (15-59 years). Mortality analyses in Fiji that consider the entire population mask divergent trends in the major ethnic groups. This situation is most likely a consequence of non-communicable disease mortality, requiring further assessment and a strengthened response.

  3. Birth of the cool: a two-centuries decline in emotional expression in Anglophone fiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Olivier; Acerbi, Alberto

    2017-12-01

    The presence of emotional words and content in stories has been shown to enhance a story's memorability, and its cultural success. Yet, recent cultural trends run in the opposite direction. Using the Google Books corpus, coupled with two metadata-rich corpora of Anglophone fiction books, we show a decrease in emotionality in English-speaking literature starting plausibly in the nineteenth century. We show that this decrease cannot be explained by changes unrelated to emotionality (such as demographic dynamics concerning age or gender balance, changes in vocabulary richness, or changes in the prevalence of literary genres), and that, in our three corpora, the decrease is driven almost entirely by a decline in the proportion of positive emotion-related words, while the frequency of negative emotion-related words shows little if any decline. Consistently with previous studies, we also find a link between ageing and negative emotionality at the individual level.

  4. Ecological change drives a decline in mercury concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinney, Melissa A.; Atwood, Todd C.; Pedro, Sara; Peacock, Elizabeth

    2017-01-01

    We evaluated total mercury (THg) concentrations and trends in polar bears from the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation from 2004 to 2011. Hair THg concentrations ranged widely among individuals from 0.6 to 13.3 μg g–1 dry weight (mean: 3.5 ± 0.2 μg g–1). Concentrations differed among sex and age classes: solitary adult females ≈ adult females with cubs ≈ subadults > adult males ≈ yearlings > cubs-of-the-year ≈ 2 year old dependent cubs. No variation was observed between spring and fall samples. For spring-sampled adults, THg concentrations declined by 13% per year, contrasting recent trends observed for other Western Hemispheric Arctic biota. Concentrations also declined by 15% per year considering adult males only, while a slower, nonsignificant decrease of 4.4% per year was found for adult females. Lower THg concentrations were associated with higher body mass index (BMI) and higher proportions of lower trophic position food resources consumed. Because BMI and diet were related, and the relationship to THg was strongest for BMI, trends were re-evaluated adjusting for BMI as the covariate. The adjusted annual decline was not significant. These findings indicate that changes in foraging ecology, not declining environmental concentrations of mercury, are driving short-term declines in THg concentrations in southern Beaufort Sea polar bears.

  5. Family planning and fertility decline: a global overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabah, L

    1977-01-01

    Family planning and development policy concerns are not incompatible. The emphasis on development policies at the 1974 World Population Conference at Bucharest did not mean that world governments had lost interest in the population and family planning issue. Although worldwide attitudes toward family planning have become more and more favorable, this has not yet meant great impact on world demographic trends. The "inertia factor," i.e., the effects of high birthrates in the previous generation, will camouflage declining birthrates for some time to come. The trend of fertility reduction which was perceptible only among small populations a few years ago is also becoming manifest in larger Third World countries. Mortality rate declines have slowed down but there is no rising mortality due to starvation in any country. At present, food demand exceeds availability for 80% of the Third World population. It is predicted that the food deficit will increase 70% by the year 2000.

  6. Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical rainforest regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhi, Yadvinder; Wright, James

    2004-03-29

    We present an analysis of the mean climate and climatic trends of tropical rainforest regions over the period 1960-1998, with the aid of explicit maps of forest cover and climatological databases. Until the mid-1970s most regions showed little trend in temperature, and the western Amazon experienced a net cooling probably associated with an interdecadal oscillation. Since the mid-1970s, all tropical rainforest regions have experienced a strong warming at a mean rate of 0.26 +/- 0.05 degrees C per decade, in synchrony with a global rise in temperature that has been attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. Over the study period, precipitation appears to have declined in tropical rainforest regions at a rate of 1.0 +/- 0.8% per decade (p Africa (at 3-4% per decade), declining marginally in tropical Asia and showing no significant trend in Amazonia. There is no evidence so far of a decline in precipitation in eastern Amazonia, a region thought vulnerable to climate-change-induced drying. The strong drying trend in Africa suggests that this should be a priority study region for understanding the impact of drought on tropical rainforests. We develop and use a dry-season index to study variations in the length and intensity of the dry season. Only African and Indian tropical rainforests appear to have seen a significant increase in dry-season intensity. In terms of interannual variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of temperature variations across the tropics and of precipitation fluctuations for large areas of the Americas and southeast Asia. The relation between ENSO and tropical African precipitation appears less direct.

  7. Declining health disadvantage of non-marital children: Explanation of the trend in the Czech Republic 1990-2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Stipkova

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: There has been a rapid spread of non-marital childbearing in the Czech Republic during the last two decades. At the same time, the low birth weight rates of children born to married and unmarried mothers have converged. Objective: The goal is to explain the diminishing gap in low birth weight. Two explanations are assessed: the changing selection of unmarried mothers from disadvantaged socio-demographic groups, and increasing social support for unmarried mothers. Methods: Data from birth register are analysed. Marital status (married vs. unmarried disparities in low birth weight are modelled using logistic regression. Further analyses are then performed with a detailed measurement of partnership status. This detailed variable is partially missing and is thus supplemented with multiple imputation. Results: The main explanation for the narrowing gap between the outcomes of children born to married and unmarried mothers is the increasing social support for unmarried mothers. Unmarried motherhood has become less detrimental to a child's birth weight net of maternal demographic characteristics. The decline in selection from disadvantaged socio-demographic groups has also contributed to the convergence. However, the convergence of birth weight trends towards marital children seems to refer mostly to children of partnered mothers, with children of single mothers lagging behind. Conclusions: The positive trends in the health of non-marital children are interpreted as being the result of the increasing institutionalisation of parenthood in non-marital unions. However, this does not apply to unpartnered motherhood, which continues to represent a health disadvantage.

  8. Decline Curve Based Models for Predicting Natural Gas Well Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Kamari, Arash; Mohammadi, Amir H.; Lee, Moonyong; Mahmood, Tariq; Bahadori, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN) modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM) approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy ...

  9. Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. R. Ismail

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

  10. Changing trends of rainfall and sediment fluxes in the Kinta River catchment, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, W. R.; Hashim, M.

    2015-03-01

    The Kinta River, draining an area of 2566 km2, originates in the Korbu Mountain in Perak, Malaysia, and flows through heterogeneous, mixed land uses ranging from extensive forests to mining, rubber and oil palm plantations, and urban development. A land use change analysis of the Kinta River catchment was carried out together with assessment of the long-term trend in rainfall and sediment fluxes. The Mann-Kendall test was used to examine and assess the long-term trends in rainfall and its relationship with the sediment discharge trend. The land use analysis shows that forests, water bodies and mining land declined whilst built and agricultural land use increased significantly. This has influenced the sediment flux of the catchment. However, most of the rainfall stations and river gauging stations are experiencing an increasing trends, except at Kinta river at Tg. Rambutan. Sediment flux shows a net erosion for the period from 1961 to 1969. The total annual sediment discharge in the Kinta River catchment was low with an average rate of 1,757 t/km2/year. From 1970 to 1985, the annual sediment yield rose to an average rate of 4062 t/km2/year. Afterwards, from 1986 to 1993, the total annual sediment discharge decreased to an average rate of 1,306 t/km2/year and increased back during the period 1994 to 2000 to 2109 t/km2/year. From 2001 to 2006 the average sediment flux rate declined to 865 t/km2/year. The decline was almost 80% from the 1970s. High sediment flux in the early 1970s is partly associated with reduced tin mining activities in the area. This decreasing trend in sediment delivery leaving the Kinta River catchment is expected to continue dropping in the future.

  11. Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

    2011-01-01

    Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

  12. Recent declines in cancer incidence: related to the Great Recession?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomez, Scarlett Lin; Canchola, Alison J; Nelson, David O; Keegan, Theresa H M; Clarke, Christina A; Cheng, Iona; Shariff-Marco, Salma; DeRouen, Mindy; Catalano, Ralph; Satariano, William A; Davidson-Allen, Kathleen; Glaser, Sally L

    2017-02-01

    In recent years, cancer case counts in the U.S. underwent a large, rapid decline-an unexpected change given population growth for older persons at highest cancer risk. As these declines coincided with the Great Recession, we examined whether they were related to economic conditions. Using California Cancer Registry data from California's 30 most populous counties, we analyzed trends in cancer incidence during pre-recession (1996-2007) and recession/recovery (2008-2012) periods for all cancers combined and the ten most common sites. We evaluated the recession's association with rates using a multifactorial index that measured recession impact, and modeled associations between case counts and county-level unemployment rates using Poisson regression. Yearly cancer incidence rate declines were greater during the recession/recovery (3.3% among males, 1.4% among females) than before (0.7 and 0.5%, respectively), particularly for prostate, lung, and colorectal cancers. Lower case counts, especially for prostate and liver cancer among males and breast cancer, melanoma, and ovarian cancer among females, were associated with higher unemployment rates, irrespective of time period, but independent of secular effects. The associations for melanoma translated up to a 3.6% decrease in cases with each 1% increase in unemployment. Incidence declines were not greater in counties with higher recession impact index. Although recent declines in incidence of certain cancers are not differentially impacted by economic conditions related to the Great Recession relative to pre-recession conditions, the large recent absolute declines in the case counts of some cancer may be attributable to the large declines in unemployment in the recessionary period. This may occur through decreased engagement in preventive health behaviors, particularly for clinically less urgent cancers. Continued monitoring of trends is important to detect any rises in incidence rates as deferred diagnoses come to

  13. Does conservation on farmland contribute to halting the biodiversity decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleijn, David; Rundlöf, Maj; Scheper, Jeroen; Smith, Henrik G; Tscharntke, Teja

    2011-09-01

    Biodiversity continues to decline, despite the implementation of international conservation conventions and measures. To counteract biodiversity loss, it is pivotal to know how conservation actions affect biodiversity trends. Focussing on European farmland species, we review what is known about the impact of conservation initiatives on biodiversity. We argue that the effects of conservation are a function of conservation-induced ecological contrast, agricultural land-use intensity and landscape context. We find that, to date, only a few studies have linked local conservation effects to national biodiversity trends. It is therefore unknown how the extensive European agri-environmental budget for conservation on farmland contributes to the policy objectives to halt biodiversity decline. Based on this review, we identify new research directions addressing this important knowledge gap. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Computing and Representing Sea Ice Trends: Toward a Community Consensus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlleben, T.; Tivy, A.; Stroeve, J.; Meier, Walter N.; Fetterer, F.; Wang, J.; Assel, R.

    2013-01-01

    Estimates of the recent decline in Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent can vary due to differences in sea ice data sources, in the number of years used to compute the trend, and in the start and end years used in the trend computation. Compounding such differences, estimates of the relative decline in sea ice cover (given in percent change per decade) can further vary due to the choice of reference value (the initial point of the trend line, a climatological baseline, etc.). Further adding to the confusion, very often when relative trends are reported in research papers, the reference values used are not specified or made clear. This can lead to confusion when trend studies are cited in the press and public reports.

  15. Trends in U.S. food prices, 1950-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christian, Thomas; Rashad, Inas

    2009-03-01

    The potential effect that food prices may have on the health of the U.S. population needs to be further explored, particularly in light of the rising food prices currently being observed. Declining food prices over time have been singled out as a main contributor, for example, to the rising trend in obesity. In this paper we use data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association, the Consumer Expenditure Survey, and the United States Department of Agriculture to analyze trends in various types of food prices, to create a food price index, and to estimate the price of a calorie. Results may be used by future researchers in estimating the health implications of these trends. We find that while the general trend in food prices has been declining, that of restaurant meal prices and prices of fruits and vegetables has risen over time. It is doubtful that the decline in food prices has been sufficiently large to account for the large increase in caloric intake that is said to have contributed to the obesity epidemic in the U.S.

  16. Selected trends in lung cancer epidemiology in Slovakia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ondrusova, M.; Psenkova, M.; Berzinec, P.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The lung cancer is still among the dominant malignant tumors despite declining trend of incidence, especially in men, and also its adverse prognosis remains. Aim: The aim of the study was to analyse the development of long-term trends in incidence and mortality and to produce a prospective estimate of prevalence and overall burden of lung cancer in the population in the Slovak Republic. Results: A significant drop of incidence of the disease in men has been seen in Slovakia since 1988 by a mean annual percentage change of -2.16%, whereby mortality is declining a little faster (by an annual percentage change of -2.87%). Adverse trend has been registered in both indicators in case of lung cancer in women, with incidence rising since 2001 by 5.31% annually and mortality rising by 1.3% for the whole monitored period. Conclusion: The adverse rising trend in the incidence and mortality of lung cancer in women in the Slovak Republic, as well as the slower decline in incidence and mortality in men compared with some countries of Western Europe, will have an impact in future also on total costs for management of this disease. (author)

  17. Declining trends in invasive orthopedic interventions for people with hemophilia enrolled in the Universal Data Collection program (2000–2010)

    Science.gov (United States)

    TOBASE, P.; LANE, H.; SIDDIQI, A.-E-A.; INGRAM-RICH, R.; WARD, R. S.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Recurrent joint hemarthroses due to hemophilia (Factor VIII and Factor IX deficiency) often lead to invasive orthopedic interventions to decrease frequency of bleeding and/or to alleviate pain associated with end-stage hemophilic arthropathy. Aim Identify trends in invasive orthopedic interventions among people with hemophilia who were enrolled in the Universal Data Collection (UDC) program during the period 2000–2010. Methods Data were collected from 130 hemophilia treatment centers in the United States annually during the period 2000–2010, in collaboration with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). The number of visits in which an invasive orthopedic intervention was reported was expressed as a proportion of the total visits in each year of the program. Invasive orthopedic interventions consisted of arthroplasty, arthrodesis, and synovectomy. Joints included in this study were the shoulder, elbow, hip, knee, and ankle. Results A 5.6% decrease in all invasive orthopedic interventions in all joints of people with hemophilia enrolled in the UDC program over the 11-year study period was observed. Conclusions These data reflect a declining trend in invasive orthopedic interventions in people with hemophilia. Further research is needed to understand the characteristics that may influence invasive orthopedic interventions. PMID:27030396

  18. Autopsy rates in the Netherlands: 35 years of decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blokker, Britt M; Weustink, Annick C; Hunink, M G Myriam; Oosterhuis, J Wolter

    2017-01-01

    Although the autopsy still is a valuable tool in health statistics, health care quality control, medical education, and biomedical research, autopsy rates have been declining worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine trends of overall, clinical and forensic autopsy rates among adults in the Netherlands over the last four decades, and trends per sex, age (groups), and hospital type. We performed a retrospective study covering 35 years of Dutch national death counts (1977-2011), the number of in-hospital deceased patients, the number of deaths due to external causes, and the proportion of autopsies performed in these populations. The effects of sex, age and hospital category were analysed by linear and logistic regression and differences were evaluated by chi-square tests. Overall autopsy rates declined by 0.3% per calendar year, clinical autopsy rates by 0.7% per calendar year (from 31.4% to 7.7%), and forensic autopsy rates did not decline. Per calendar year the fraction of in-hospital deceased patients decreased by 0.2%. Autopsy rates were highest among men and younger patients; clinical autopsy rates were highest for patients dying in academic hospitals. In the Netherlands clinical autopsy rates have rapidly declined while at the same time the fraction of in-hospital deaths decreased, both contributing to the overall reduced absolute number of autopsies performed. It is important to improve awareness among both clinicians and general practitioners of the significance of the clinical autopsy.

  19. Decline in snowfall in response to temperature in Satluj basin ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The study also consists an analysis of average values of annual snowfall and temperature ... During the study, it was observed that the snowfall exhibited declining trends in the basin. ... National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee 247 667, India.

  20. Spatio-Temporal Trends of Oak Decline and Mortality under Periodic Regional Drought in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Shifley

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and basal area of standing dead oak trees, respectively. These values are three to five times higher than for white oak group and non-oak species. Oak decline and associated escalating mortality have occurred primarily in red oak species while the white oak group has maintained a relatively stable mortality rate that is comparable to non-oak species. Cross-correlation analyses indicate that mortality in the red oak group was significantly correlated with the growing season Palmer drought severity index (PDSI and usually lagged two to three years following single drought events. Moreover, based on the past 17 years PDSI data, it appears that the cumulative impacts of drought may last up to 10 years. The Ozark Highlands experienced a severe drought extending from 1998 to 2000 and another milder drought from 2005 to 2006. These drought events triggered the escalation of mortality starting around year 2000. Spatially, high red oak mortality sites (hot spots with proportional basal area mortality > 0.12 initially occurred in the central Ozarks and spread gradually over most of the Ozark Highlands as regional droughts continued. In contrast, sites with elevated white oak and non-oak mortality occurred sporadically, mainly in the southern portion (Arkansas of the Ozark Highlands. During the most recent inventory period (2006–2010, over 60%, 7% and 5% of red oak, white oak and non-oak groups, respectively, had relative mortality rates of > 12%.

  1. Autopsy rates in the Netherlands: 35 years of decline

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B.M. Blokker (Britt); A.C. Weustink (Annick); M.G.M. Hunink (Myriam); Oosterhuis, J.W. (J. Wolter)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractObjective: Although the autopsy still is a valuable tool in health statistics, health care quality control, medical education, and biomedical research, autopsy rates have been declining worldwide. The aim of this study was to examine trends of overall, clinical and forensic autopsy rates

  2. Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

    1993-07-01

    Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

  3. Resting-state networks associated with cognitive processing show more age-related decline than those associated with emotional processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nashiro, Kaoru; Sakaki, Michiko; Braskie, Meredith N; Mather, Mara

    2017-06-01

    Correlations in activity across disparate brain regions during rest reveal functional networks in the brain. Although previous studies largely agree that there is an age-related decline in the "default mode network," how age affects other resting-state networks, such as emotion-related networks, is still controversial. Here we used a dual-regression approach to investigate age-related alterations in resting-state networks. The results revealed age-related disruptions in functional connectivity in all 5 identified cognitive networks, namely the default mode network, cognitive-auditory, cognitive-speech (or speech-related somatosensory), and right and left frontoparietal networks, whereas such age effects were not observed in the 3 identified emotion networks. In addition, we observed age-related decline in functional connectivity in 3 visual and 3 motor/visuospatial networks. Older adults showed greater functional connectivity in regions outside 4 out of the 5 identified cognitive networks, consistent with the dedifferentiation effect previously observed in task-based functional magnetic resonance imaging studies. Both reduced within-network connectivity and increased out-of-network connectivity were correlated with poor cognitive performance, providing potential biomarkers for cognitive aging. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. A climatological analysis on the recent declining trend of rice quality in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okada, M.; Iizumi, T.; Hayashi, Y.; Yokozawa, M.

    2009-01-01

    A remarkable declining trend in rice quality has already been observed in western Japan and the future global warming associated with climate change is likely to exacerbate such risk. In this study, a simple statistical model was constructed to estimate the rice quality, which is defined as the proportion of white immature grains on a prefectural scale, in terms of two major climate variables during the grain-filling stage: the cumulative weighted effective temperature delta and the cumulative solar radiation SR. In order to account for the uncertainties included in the processes involved, Bayesian inference was used to estimate the model parameters. The modeled time changes in rice quality correlated well to those observed. Specifically, the reproducibility of rice quality since 2000 was particularly high. These results suggested that a combination of the two climate factors was responsible for the recent variability in rice quality on a prefectural scale. Subsequently, the elasticity of rice quality relative to delta and SR was examined based on the model. The elasticity represents the relative change in rice quality in response to a change in delta or SR, with a positive (negative) sign indicating increased (decreased) quality. Consequently, the mean elasticity of the rice quality relative to SR was larger than that to delta in Kyushu. Moreover, the time changes of rice quality in Kyushu synchronized with that of SR under high temperature conditions, suggesting that rice plants become more sensitive to conditions of insufficient radiation if exposed to high temperatures. Consequently, it was concluded that the contribution of the radiation condition to the variation in rice quality become relatively larger along with the recent increase in temperature

  5. Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Ciais, Philippe; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Sheffield, Justin; Goulden, Michael L; Bonan, Gordon; Cescatti, Alessandro; Chen, Jiquan; de Jeu, Richard; Dolman, A Johannes; Eugster, Werner; Gerten, Dieter; Gianelle, Damiano; Gobron, Nadine; Heinke, Jens; Kimball, John; Law, Beverly E; Montagnani, Leonardo; Mu, Qiaozhen; Mueller, Brigitte; Oleson, Keith; Papale, Dario; Richardson, Andrew D; Roupsard, Olivier; Running, Steve; Tomelleri, Enrico; Viovy, Nicolas; Weber, Ulrich; Williams, Christopher; Wood, Eric; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhang, Ke

    2010-10-21

    More than half of the solar energy absorbed by land surfaces is currently used to evaporate water. Climate change is expected to intensify the hydrological cycle and to alter evapotranspiration, with implications for ecosystem services and feedback to regional and global climate. Evapotranspiration changes may already be under way, but direct observational constraints are lacking at the global scale. Until such evidence is available, changes in the water cycle on land−a key diagnostic criterion of the effects of climate change and variability−remain uncertain. Here we provide a data-driven estimate of global land evapotranspiration from 1982 to 2008, compiled using a global monitoring network, meteorological and remote-sensing observations, and a machine-learning algorithm. In addition, we have assessed evapotranspiration variations over the same time period using an ensemble of process-based land-surface models. Our results suggest that global annual evapotranspiration increased on average by 7.1 ± 1.0 millimetres per year per decade from 1982 to 1997. After that, coincident with the last major El Niño event in 1998, the global evapotranspiration increase seems to have ceased until 2008. This change was driven primarily by moisture limitation in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly Africa and Australia. In these regions, microwave satellite observations indicate that soil moisture decreased from 1998 to 2008. Hence, increasing soil-moisture limitations on evapotranspiration largely explain the recent decline of the global land-evapotranspiration trend. Whether the changing behaviour of evapotranspiration is representative of natural climate variability or reflects a more permanent reorganization of the land water cycle is a key question for earth system science.

  6. The decline of malaria in Finland – the impact of the vector and social variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hulden Larry

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria was prevalent in Finland in the 18th century. It declined slowly without deliberate counter-measures and the last indigenous case was reported in 1954. In the present analysis of indigenous malaria in Finland, an effort was made to construct a data set on annual malaria cases of maximum temporal length to be able to evaluate the significance of different factors assumed to affect malaria trends. Methods To analyse the long-term trend malaria statistics were collected from 1750–2008. During that time, malaria frequency decreased from about 20,000 – 50,000 per 1,000,000 people to less than 1 per 1,000,000 people. To assess the cause of the decline, a correlation analysis was performed between malaria frequency per million people and temperature data, animal husbandry, consolidation of land by redistribution and household size. Results Anopheles messeae and Anopheles beklemishevi exist only as larvae in June and most of July. The females seek an overwintering place in August. Those that overwinter together with humans may act as vectors. They have to stay in their overwintering place from September to May because of the cold climate. The temperatures between June and July determine the number of malaria cases during the following transmission season. This did not, however, have an impact on the long-term trend of malaria. The change in animal husbandry and reclamation of wetlands may also be excluded as a possible cause for the decline of malaria. The long-term social changes, such as land consolidation and decreasing household size, showed a strong correlation with the decline of Plasmodium. Conclusion The indigenous malaria in Finland faded out evenly in the whole country during 200 years with limited or no counter-measures or medication. It appears that malaria in Finland was basically a social disease and that malaria trends were strongly linked to changes in human behaviour. Decreasing household size caused

  7. Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Dunn

    Full Text Available We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae, chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum, chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum. The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a

  8. Bariatric surgery interest around the world: what Google Trends can teach us.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linkov, Faina; Bovbjerg, Dana H; Freese, Kyle E; Ramanathan, Ramesh; Eid, George Michel; Gourash, William

    2014-01-01

    Bariatric surgery may prove an effective weight loss option for those struggling with severe obesity, but it is difficult to determine levels of interest in such procedures at the population level through traditional approaches. Analysis of Google Trend information may give providers and healthcare systems useful information regarding Internet users' interest in bariatric procedures. The objective of this study was to gather Google Trend information on worldwide Internet searches for "bariatric surgery", "gastric bypass", "gastric sleeve", "gastric plication", and "lap band" from 2004-2012 and to explore temporal relationships with relevant media events, economic variations, and policy modifications. Data were collected using Google Trends. Trend analyses were performed using Microsoft Excel Version 14.3.5 and Minitab V.16.0. Trend analyses showed that total search volume for the term "bariatric surgery" has declined roughly 25% since January 2004, although interest increased approximately 5% from 2011 to 2012. Interest in lap band procedures declined 30% over the past 5 years, while "gastric sleeve" has increased 15%. Spikes in search numbers show an association with events such as changing policy and insurance guidelines and media coverage for bariatric procedures. This report illustrates that variations in Internet search volume for terms related to bariatric surgery are multifactorial in origin. Although it is impossible to ascertain if reported Internet search volume is based on interest in potentially undergoing bariatric surgery or simply general interest, this analysis reveals that search volume appears to mirror real world events. Therefore, Google Trends could be a way to supplement understanding about interest in bariatric procedures. © 2013 American Society for Bariatric Surgery Published by American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery All rights reserved.

  9. Investigating recent trends in the U.S. teen birth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kearney, Melissa S; Levine, Phillip B

    2015-05-01

    We investigate trends in the U.S. rate of teen childbearing between 1981 and 2010, focusing specifically on the sizable decline since 1991. We focus on establishing the role of state-level demographic changes, economic conditions, and targeted policies in driving recent aggregate trends. We offer three main observations. First, the recent decline cannot be explained by the changing racial and ethnic composition of teens. Second, the only targeted policies that have had a statistically discernible impact on aggregate teen birth rates are declining welfare benefits and expanded access to family planning services through Medicaid, but these policies can account for only 12.6 percent of the observed decline since 1991. Third, higher unemployment rates lead to lower teen birth rates and can account for 16 percent of the decline in teen birth rates since the Great Recession began. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Unmet need and fertility decline: a comparative perspective on prospects in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casterline, John B; El-Zeini, Laila O

    2014-06-01

    This study assesses how changes in unmet need for family planning have contributed to contemporary fertility declines, and the implications of this historical record for further fertility decline, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. We examine joint trends at the national level in fertility, unintended fertility, and unmet need. We bring unintended fertility into the analysis because the underlying rationale for reducing unmet need is to avert unintended pregnancies and births. The association over time between unmet need and fertility is investigated using survey data from 45 countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean from the mid-1970s to the present. The empirical analysis finds that reduction in unmet need, especially unmet need for limiting, is strongly associated with fertility decline in Latin America and the Caribbean and in Asia and North Africa. Fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa is weakly associated with trends in unmet need (and satisfaction of demand). We propose that the stark regional difference is due to measurement problems and to the fundamentally different character of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, itself reflective of basic differences in pretransition reproductive regimes. © 2013 The Population Council, Inc.

  11. The changing pattern and determinants of declining consanguinity in Jordan during 1990-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, M Mazharul

    2018-03-01

    Consanguinity is a deep rooted cultural trait in Jordan. To examine the patterns and determinants of declining rates of consanguineous marriage in Jordan during 1990-2012 in the context of the changing pattern of socio-economic and demographic conditions. The data come from the 1990 and 2012 Jordan Population and Family Health Surveys (JPFHSs). A total of 6461 women in 1990 and 11,352 women in 2012 were successfully interviewed. Descriptive and multivariate statistical techniques were used for data analysis. Consanguinity was found to be widely practiced (35% in 2012) until recent times in Jordan. However, there has been a secular declining trend over the last few decades as the practice of consanguinity has declined from 56% in 1990 to 35% in 2012. Increasing age at marriage and female education, higher level of education of husbands, declining family size, increasing rate of urbanisation and female employment, exposure to mass media and higher economic status appeared as significant predictors of declining consanguinity in Jordan. The findings of this study support Goode's hypothesis of a decrease of consanguinity with modernisation. Although consanguinity is a deeply rooted cultural trend in Jordan, it is gradually losing ground due to modernisation and socio-demographic transition of the country.

  12. Declines in the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration and flux from the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worrall, Fred; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.; Bartlett, Rebecca

    2018-01-01

    Increased concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have been reported for many catchments across the northern hemisphere. Hypotheses to explain the increase have varied (eg. increasing air temperature or recovery from acidification) but one test of alternative hypotheses is the trend over the recent decade, with the competing hypotheses predicting: continuing increase; the rate of increase declining with time; and even decrease in concentration. In this study, records of DOC concentration in non-tidal rivers across the UK were examined for the period 2003-2012. The study found that: Of the 62 decade-long concentration trends that could be examined, 3 showed a significant increase, 17 experienced no significant change and 42 showed a significant decrease; in 28 of the 42 significant decreases, a significant step change was apparent with step changes being a decrease in concentration in every case. Of the 118 sites where annual flux and concentration records were available from 1974, 28 showed a significant step change down in flux and 52 showed a step down in concentration. The modal year of the step changes was 2000 with no step changes observed before 1982. At the UK national scale, DOC flux peaked in 2005 at 1354 ktonnes C/yr (5.55 tonnes C/km2/yr) but has declined since. The study suggests that there is a disconnection between DOC records from large catchments at their tidal limits and complementary records from headwater catchments, which means that mechanisms believed to be driving increases in DOC concentrations in headwaters will not necessarily be those controlling trends in DOC concentration further downstream. We propose that the changes identified here have been driven by changes in in-stream processing and changes brought about by the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive. Therefore, signals identified in headwater catchments may bear little relation to those observed in large rivers much further downstream and vice versa.

  13. Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cartas

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices. In 2012, the international commodity markets have seen declining prices, especially during the first half of the year, with some improvement mainly in the last quarter. On the whole, most of major commodity prices declined, following generally weaker demand and the uncertain global economic situation. The short term outlook shows broad declines of prices for all major commodity groups, including oil and excepting metal prices, which are expected to be sustained by the global economic recovery and increasing demand, mainly in China. This country represents a major player, with a great contribution to the movement of prices on most of international commodity markets, as she has a great role in the world consumption and trade of commodities, as well as in the world production of some of these goods, on the one hand, and enjoys huge financial resources, on the other.

  14. Recent changes in the trends of teen birth rates, 1981-2006.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wingo, Phyllis A; Smith, Ruben A; Tevendale, Heather D; Ferré, Cynthia

    2011-03-01

    To explore trends in teen birth rates by selected demographics. We used birth certificate data and joinpoint regression to examine trends in teen birth rates by age (10-14, 15-17, and 18-19 years) and race during 1981-2006 and by age and Hispanic origin during 1990-2006. Joinpoint analysis describes changing trends over successive segments of time and uses annual percentage change (APC) to express the amount of increase or decrease within each segment. For teens younger than 18 years, the decline in birth rates began in 1994 and ended in 2003 (APC: -8.03% per year for ages 10-14 years; APC: -5.63% per year for ages 15-17 years). The downward trend for 18- and 19-year-old teens began earlier (1991) and ended 1 year later (2004) (APC: -2.37% per year). For each study population, the trend was approximately level during the most recent time segment, except for continuing declines for 18- and 19-year-old white and Asian/Pacific Islander teens. The only increasing trend in the most recent time segment was for 18- and 19-year-old Hispanic teens. During these declines, the age distribution of teens who gave birth shifted to slightly older ages, and the percentage whose current birth was at least their second birth decreased. Teen birth rates were generally level during 2003/2004-2006 after the long-term declines. Rates increased among older Hispanic teens. These results indicate a need for renewed attention to effective teen pregnancy prevention programs in specific populations. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. Suicide and unintentional poisoning mortality trends in the United States, 1987-2006: two unrelated phenomena?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frost James L

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Two counter trends in injury mortality have been separately reported in the US in recent times - a declining suicide rate and a rapidly rising unintentional poisoning mortality rate. Poisoning suicides are especially difficult to detect, and injury of undetermined intent is the underlying cause-of-death category most likely to reflect this difficulty. We compare suicide and poisoning mortality trends over two decades in a preliminary assessment of their independence and implications for suicide misclassification. Methods Description of overall and gender- and age-specific trends using national mortality data from WISQARS, the Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System, maintained by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC. Subjects were the 936,633 residents dying in the 50 states and the District of Columbia between 1987 and 2006 whose underlying cause of death was classified as suicide, unintentional poisoning, or injury mortality of undetermined intent. Results The official US suicide rate declined 18% between 1987 and 2000, from 12.71 to 10.43 deaths per 100,000 population. It then increased to 11.15 deaths per 100,000 by 2006, a 7% rise. By contrast to these much smaller rate changes for suicide, the unintentional poisoning mortality rate rose more than fourfold between 1987 and 2006, from 2.19 to 9.22 deaths per 100,000. Only the population aged 65 years and older showed a sustained decline in the suicide rate over the entire observation period. Consistently highest in gender-age comparisons, the elderly male rate declined by 35%. The elderly female rate declined by 43%. Unlike rate trends for the non-elderly, both declines appeared independent of corresponding mortality trends for unintentional poisoning and poisoning of undetermined intent. The elderly also deviated from younger counterparts by having a smaller proportion of their injury deaths of undetermined intent classified as poisoning

  16. Twentieth-century warming and the dendroclimatology of declining yellow-cedar forests in southeastern Alaska

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beier, C.M. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Dept. of Biology and Wildlife; Sink, S.E.; Juday, G.P. [Alaska Fairbanks Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Hennon, P.E.; D' Amore, D.V. [United States Dept. of Agriculture Forest Service, Juneau, AK (United States). Pacific Northwest Research Station, Forestry Sciences Laboratory

    2008-06-15

    The decline of yellow cedar in temperate rainforests in southeastern Alaska was investigated. Dieback of the species has been observed as early as 1909. The dehardening process for the species is highly temperature-dependent. Declining stands have been found in open-canopy forests on poorly drained sites. Historical climate data sets were compiled suing extensive tree-ring chronologies. The aim of the study was to test the hypothesis that a specific suite of microclimatic conditions that occur during late winter involving early dehardening, reduced snowpack, and freezing injury are responsible. The assumption was tested by examining regional climatic trends and growth responses of declining cedar populations. Results of the study showed increasing winter temperatures in the region which have resulted in the frequent occurrence of severe thaw-freeze events. Late winter weather was the best predictor of annual growth for surviving trees. Results of the study also verified the impact of elevational gradients of temperature and snow cover on the exposure of the trees to climatic stressors. It was concluded that yellow cedars may continue to decline with continued climatic warming. 36 refs., 6 tabs., 8 figs.

  17. Factors associated with the decline in suicide by pesticide poisoning in Taiwan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, Shu-Sen; Lu, Tsung-Hsueh; Eddleston, Michael

    2012-01-01

    of the workforce involved in agriculture and unemployment. We compared pesticide products banned by the Taiwanese government with products that remained on the market and pesticides that accounted for the most poisoning deaths in Taiwan. Results. Age-standardised rates of pesticide suicide showed a 67% reduction......, in Taiwan, a rapidly developing East Asian country. Methods. We conducted an ecological study using graphical approaches and Spearman's correlation coefficients to examine trends in pesticide suicide (1987-2010) in Taiwan in relation to pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticides, the proportion....... The reduction was paralleled by a 66% fall in the workforce involved in agriculture but there was no strong evidence for its association with trends in pesticide sales, bans on selected pesticide products or unemployment. The bans mostly post-dated the decline in pesticide suicides; furthermore, they did...

  18. Decline in male circumcision in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, DaiSik; Koo, Sung-Ae; Pang, Myung-Geol

    2012-12-11

    To investigate the changing circumcision rate in South Korea in the last decade and to propose underlying causes for this change, in the context of the present fluctuating world-wide trends in circumcision. From 2009 to 2011, 3,296 South Korean males (or their parents) aged 0-64 years were asked about their circumcision status, their age at circumcision, and their information level regarding circumcision. We employed non-probability sampling considering the sensitive questions on the study theme. Currently the age-standardized circumcision rate for South Korean males aged 14-29 is found to be 75.8%. In an earlier study performed in 2002, the rate for the same age group was 86.3%. Of particular interest, males aged 14-16 show a circumcision rate of 56.4%, while the same age group 10 years ago displayed a much higher percentage, at 88.4%. In addition, the extraordinarily high circumcision rate of 95.2% found 10 years ago for the 17-19 age group is now reduced to 74.4%. Interestingly, of the circumcised males, the percentage circumcised in the last decade was only 25.2%; i.e., the majority of the currently circumcised males had undergone the operation prior to 2002, indicating that the actual change in the last decade is far greater. Consistent with this conjecture, the 2002 survey showed that the majority of circumcised males (75.7%) had undergone the operation in the decade prior to that point. Focusing on the flagship age group of 14-16, this drop suggests that, considering the population structure of Korean males, approximately one million fewer circumcision operations have been performed in the last decade relative to the case of non-decline. This decline is strongly correlated with the information available through internet, newspapers, lectures, books, and television: within the circumcised population, both the patients and their parents had less prior knowledge regarding circumcision, other than information obtained from person to person by oral communication

  19. Can guild- or site-specific contrasts in trends or phenology explain the changed role of the Dutch Wadden Sea for fish?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tulp, Ingrid; van der Veer, Henk W.; Walker, Paddy; van Walraven, Lodewijk; Bolle, Loes J.

    2017-09-01

    The Wadden Sea bordering the Dutch, German and Danish coast, is traditionally a region with important functions for many fish species: as a nursery area for juveniles (marine juveniles), as a feeding area, as a transit to and from fresh water, and resident species complete their whole life cycle there. Because of indications that the importance of the Dutch Wadden Sea has changed drastically for many species during the past decades, we analysed and classified trends of 24 common fish species in the last 45 years, which were assigned to 5 different ecological guilds. Trends were examined for three Wadden Sea regions and compared to trends in the adjacent two North Sea coastal regions. For these analyses we made a combined use of two longterm time series: an annual beamtrawl survey, the Demeral Fish Survey (DFS) with a high spatial but poor seasonal resolution and a fyke series with a high seasonal but poor spatial resolution. We investigated for which species the DFS survey was appropriate for trend analysis, and we evaluated whether a change in timing may contribute to patterns in DFS time trends. Total fish biomass showed a similar pattern in all tidal basins with an increase from 1970 to 1980, a peak in the mid-1980s and a strong decline from 1980 to 2000, with a subsequent stable trend. The pattern in the coastal region deviated especially in the past 10 years, with a further decline along the Dutch Wadden coast and an increase along the mainland coast. Most dramatic declines throughout the Wadden Sea occurred in species belonging to the marine juvenile guild, notably plaice, sole and dab. A declining trend in marine juveniles is on-going in the western part, while it recently stabilised or even increased in the central and eastern part and in the coastal regions. Resident species showed more variable trends in the Wadden Sea with less pronounced directions: both increases and decreases occurred. In the coastal regions, several resident species have increased

  20. The decline in BMI among Japanese women after World War II.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maruyama, Shiko; Nakamura, Sayaka

    2015-07-01

    The body mass index (BMI) of the Japanese is significantly lower than is found in other high-income countries. Moreover, the average BMI of Japanese women is lower than that of Japanese men, and the age-specific BMI of Japanese women has decreased over time. The average BMI of Japanese women at age 25 decreased from 21.8 in 1948 to 20.4 in 2010 whereas that of men increased from 21.4 to 22.3 over the same period. We examine the long-term BMI trend in Japan by combining several historical data sources spanning eleven decades, from 1901 to 2012, to determine not only when but also how the BMI decline among women began: whether its inception was period-specific or cohort-specific. Our nonparametric regression analysis generated five findings. First, the BMI of Japanese women peaked with the 1930s birth cohort. This means that the trend is cohort-specific. Second, the BMI of men outpaced that of women in the next cohort. Third, the BMI of Japanese children, boys and girls alike, increased steadily throughout the 20th century. Fourth, the gender difference in the BMI trend is due to a gender difference in the weight trend, not the height trend. Fifth, these BMI trends are observed in urban and rural populations alike. We conclude that the BMI decline among Japanese women began with those who were in their late teens shortly after World War II. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

    2017-09-20

    Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

  2. Career-span analyses of track performance: longitudinal data present a more optimistic view of age-related performance decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Bradley W; Starkes, Janet L

    2005-01-01

    Sport scientists (Starkes, Weir, Singh, Hodges, & Kerr, 1999; Starkes, Weir, & Young, 2003) have suggested that prolonged training is critical for the maintenance of athletic performance even in the face of predicted age-related decline. This study used polynomial regression analyses to examine the relationship between age and running performance in the 1500 and 10,000 metre events. We compared the age and career-longitudinal performances for 15 male Canadian Masters athletes with a cross-sectional sample of performances at different ages. We hypothesized that the 30 years of uninterrupted training characteristic of this longitudinal sample would moderate the patterns of age-related decline (retention hypothesis); alternatively, the cross-sectional data were expected to demonstrate pronounced age-related decline (quadratic hypothesis). Investigators performed multimodel regression analyses on the age and performance data. Based on the absence (for longitudinal data) or presence (for the cross-sectional data) of significant quadratic components in second-order polynomial models, the authors found support for their respective hypotheses. The longitudinal data showed that running performance declined with age in a more linear fashion than did cross-sectional data. Graphical trends showed that the moderation of age-related decline appeared greater for the longitudinal 10 km performances than for the 1500m event.

  3. Declining efficacy in controlled trials of antidepressants: effects of placebo dropout

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schalkwijk, S.J.; Undurraga, J.; Tondo, L.; Baldessarini, R.J.

    2014-01-01

    Drug-placebo differences (effect-sizes) in controlled trials of antidepressants for major depressive episodes have declined for several decades, in association with selectively increasing clinical improvement associated with placebo-treatment. As these trends require adequate explanation, we tested

  4. A human-driven decline in global burned area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andela, N.

    2017-12-01

    Fire regimes are changing rapidly across the globe, driven by human land management and climate. We assessed long-term trends in fire activity using multiple satellite data sets and developed a new global data set on individual fire dynamics to understand the implications of changing fire regimes. Despite warming climate, burned area declined across most of the tropics, contributing to a global decline in burned area of 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area was largest in savannas and grasslands, where agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. In tropical forests, frequent fires for deforestation and agricultural management yield a sharp rise in fire activity with the expansion of settled land uses, but the use of fire decreases with increasing investment in agricultural areas in both savanna and forested landscapes. Disparate patterns of recent socieconomic development resulted in contrasting fire trends between southern Africa (increase) and South America (decrease). A strong inverse relationship between burned area and economic development in savannas and grasslands suggests that despite potential increasing fire risk from climate change, ongoing socioeconomic development will likely sustain observed declines in fire in these ecosystems during coming decades. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. The spatiotemporal distribution of fire size, duration, speed and direction of spread provided new insights in continental scale differences in fire regimes driven by human and climatic factors. Understanding these dynamics over larger scales is critical to achieve a balance between conservation of fire-dependent ecosystems and increasing agricultural production to support growing populations that will require careful management of fire activity in human-dominated landscapes.

  5. Decreases in daily physical activity predict acute decline in attention and executive function in heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alosco, Michael L; Spitznagel, Mary Beth; Cohen, Ronald; Sweet, Lawrence H; Hayes, Scott M; Josephson, Richard; Hughes, Joel; Gunstad, John

    2015-04-01

    Reduced physical activity (PA) may be one factor that contributes to cognitive decline and dementia in heart failure (HF). Yet, the longitudinal relationship between PA and cognition in HF is poorly understood owing to limitations of past work, including single-time assessments of PA. This is the first study to examine changes in objectively measured PA and cognition over time in HF. At baseline and 12 weeks, 57 HF patients completed psychosocial self-report measures and a neuropsychological battery and wore an accelerometer for 7 days. At baseline, HF patients spent an average of 597.83 (SD 75.91) minutes per day sedentary. Steps per day declined from baseline to the 12-week follow-up; there was also a trend for declines in moderate-vigorous PA. Regression analyses controlling for sex, HF severity, and depressive symptoms showed that decreases in light (P = .08) and moderate-vigorous (P = .04) daily PA emerged as strong predictors of declines in attention/executive function over the 12-week period, but not of memory or language. Reductions in daily PA predicted acute decline in attention/executive function in HF, but not of memory or language. Modifications to daily PA may attenuate cognitive decline, and prospective studies are needed to test this possibility. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reading, C J; Luiselli, L M; Akani, G C; Bonnet, X; Amori, G; Ballouard, J M; Filippi, E; Naulleau, G; Pearson, D; Rugiero, L

    2010-12-23

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root.

  7. Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evan H. Campbell Grant; David A. W. Miller; Benedikt R. Schmidt; Michael J. Adams; Staci M. Amburgey; Thierry Chambert; Sam S. Cruickshank; Robert N. Fisher; David M. Green; Blake R. Hossack; Pieter T. J. Johnson; Maxwell B. Joseph; Tracy A. G. Rittenhouse; Maureen E. Ryan; J. Hardin Waddle; Susan C. Walls; Larissa L. Bailey; Gary M. Fellers; Thomas A. Gorman; Andrew M. Ray; David S. Pilliod; Steven J. Price; Daniel Saenz; Walt Sadinski; Erin Muths

    2016-01-01

    Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a “smoking gun” was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors...

  8. Declining and stabilising trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity in Dutch, Turkish, Moroccan and South Asian children 3-16 years of age between 1999 and 2011 in the Netherlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Wilde, J A; Verkerk, P H; Middelkoop, B J C

    2014-01-01

    In many developed countries, overweight and obesity prevalence seems to stabilise. The aim of this study was to determine trends between 1999 and 2011 in overweight and obesity prevalence, and mean Body Mass Index (BMI) z-score in Dutch, Turkish, Moroccan and Surinamese South Asian children in the Netherlands. A cross-sectional population-based study with 136 080 measurements of height and weight of 73 290 children aged 3-16 years. BMI class and BMI z-score were determined with the latest International Obesity Taskforce (IOTF) criteria, with overweight defined as an adult BMI equivalent ≥ 25 and obesity ≥ 30. Time trends per year were analysed using logistic and linear regression analyses. The prevalence of overweight in Dutch children declined from 13% to 11% (OR 0.960; 95% CI 0.954 to 0.965), but increased in Turkish children from 25% to 32% (OR 1.028; 95% CI 1.020 to 1.036). In Moroccan and Surinamese South Asian children, overweight rates were stable, but obesity prevalence decreased (OR 0.973; 95% CI 0.957 to 0.989, OR 0.964; 95% CI 0.943 to 0.985, respectively) as well as the mean BMI z-score (B=-0.010; 95% CI -0.014 to -0.006, B=-0.010; 95% CI -0.016 to -0.004). In Turkish children, trends limited to the period 2007-2011 showed no statistically significant relationship for all outcome measures. The decrease in obesity prevalence in Dutch, Moroccan and Surinamese South Asian children suggests that overweight children became less adipose. The stabilising trend in overweight and obesity prevalence in Turkish children since 2007 may signify a levelling off for this ethnic group.

  9. Biological annihilation via the ongoing sixth mass extinction signaled by vertebrate population losses and declines

    OpenAIRE

    Ceballos, Gerardo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Dirzo, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    The strong focus on species extinctions, a critical aspect of the contemporary pulse of biological extinction, leads to a common misimpression that Earth’s biota is not immediately threatened, just slowly entering an episode of major biodiversity loss. This view overlooks the current trends of population declines and extinctions. Using a sample of 27,600 terrestrial vertebrate species, and a more detailed analysis of 177 mammal species, we show the extremely high degree of population decay in...

  10. Declining Radial Growth Response of Coastal Forests to Hurricanes and Nor'easters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Arnold; Rollinson, Christine R.; Kearney, William S.; Dietze, Michael C.; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2018-03-01

    The Mid-Atlantic coastal forests in Virginia are stressed by episodic disturbance from hurricanes and nor'easters. Using annual tree ring data, we adopt a dendroclimatic and statistical modeling approach to understand the response and resilience of a coastal pine forest to extreme storm events, over the past few decades. Results indicate that radial growth of trees in the study area is influenced by age, regional climate trends, and individual tree effects but dominated periodically by growth disturbance due to storms. We evaluated seven local extreme storm events to understand the effect of nor'easters and hurricanes on radial growth. A general decline in radial growth was observed in the year of the extreme storm and 3 years following it, after which the radial growth started recovering. The decline in radial growth showed a statistically significant correlation with the magnitude of the extreme storm (storm surge height and wind speed). This study contributes to understanding declining tree growth response and resilience of coastal forests to past disturbances. Given the potential increase in hurricanes and storm surge severity in the region, this can help predict vegetation response patterns to similar disturbances in the future.

  11. The late Quaternary decline and extinction of palms on oceanic Pacific islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prebble, M.; Dowe, J. L.

    2008-12-01

    Late Quaternary palaeoecological records of palm decline, extirpation and extinction are explored from the oceanic islands of the Pacific Ocean. Despite the severe reduction of faunal diversity coincidental with human colonisation of these previously uninhabited oceanic islands, relatively few plant extinctions have been recorded. At low taxonomic levels, recent faunal extinctions on oceanic islands are concentrated in larger bodied representatives of certain genera and families. Fossil and historic records of plant extinction show a similar trend with high representation of the palm family, Arecaceae. Late Holocene decline of palm pollen types is demonstrated from most islands where there are palaeoecological records including the Cook Islands, Fiji, French Polynesia, the Hawaiian Islands, the Juan Fernandez Islands and Rapanui. A strong correspondence between human impact and palm decline is measured from palynological proxies including increased concentrations of charcoal particles and pollen from cultivated plants and invasive weeds. Late Holocene extinctions or extirpations are recorded across all five of the Arecaceae subfamilies of the oceanic Pacific islands. These are most common for the genus Pritchardia but also many sedis fossil palm types were recorded representing groups lacking diagnostic morphological characters.

  12. Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimiter Philipov

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This chapter provides a detailed description of the fertility changes in Bulgaria during recent decades and discusses possible reasons and consequences. It also gives an overview of the steps that the government has undertaken to offset the considerable decline in fertility. Before the fall of communism, fertility trends in Bulgaria were stable and characterized by a nearly universal entry into parenthood, dominance of a two-child family model, an early start and early end of childbearing, stable mean ages at entry into childbearing and marriage, and low percentages of non-marital births. During the 1990s and in the first years of the new century, we observe a marked, rapid change in fertility behaviour. Together with the severe decline in overall fertility rates, demographic data reveal a significant postponement of entry into motherhood and marriage, a decline of the two-child family model, and an emergence of new family forms. Most research attributes these changes to the particular political and social situation in Bulgaria since 1989.

  13. Decline curve based models for predicting natural gas well performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Kamari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and decision tree (DT method for the prediction of cumulative gas production as well as initial decline rate multiplied by time as a function of the Arps' decline curve exponent and ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate. It was concluded that the results obtained based on the models developed in current study are in satisfactory agreement with the actual gas well production data. Furthermore, the results of comparative study performed demonstrates that the LSSVM strategy is superior to the other models investigated for the prediction of both cumulative gas production, and initial decline rate multiplied by time.

  14. Empirical analyses on the development trend of non-ferrous metal industry under China’s new normal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, C. X.; Liu, C. X.; Zhang, Q. L.

    2017-08-01

    The CGE model of Yunnan’s macro economy was constructed based on the input-output data of Yunnan in 2012, and the development trend of the non-ferrous metals industry (NMI) under the China’s new normal was simulated. In view of this, according to different expected economic growth, and optimized economic structure, the impact on development of Yunnan NMI was simulated. The results show that the NMI growth rate is expected to decline when the economic growth show a downward trend, but the change of the proportion is relatively small. Moreover, the structure in proportion was adjusted to realize the economic structure optimization, while the proportion of NMI in GDP will decline. In contrast, the biggest influence on the NMI is the change of economic structure. From the statistics of last two years, we can see that NMI is growing, and at the same time, its proportion is declining, which is consistent with the results of simulation. But the adjustment of economic structure will take a long time. It is need to improve the proportion of deep-processing industry, extend the industrial chain, enhance the value chain, so as to be made good use of resource advantage.

  15. Declining average daily census. Part 1: Implications and options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weil, T P

    1985-12-01

    A national trend toward declining average daily (inpatient) census (ADC) started in late 1982 even before the Medicare prospective payment system began. The decrease in total days will continue despite an increasing number of aged persons in the U.S. population. This decline could have been predicted from trends during 1978 to 1983, such as increasing available beds but decreasing occupancy, 100 percent increases in hospital expenses, and declining lengths of stay. Assuming that health care costs will remain as a relatively fixed part of the gross national product and no major medical advances will occur in the next five years, certain implications and options exist for facilities experiencing a declining ADC. This article discusses several considerations: Attempts to improve market share; Reduction of full-time equivalent employees; Impact of greater acuity of illness among remaining inpatients; Implications of increasing the number of physicians on medical staffs; Option of a closed medical staff by clinical specialty; Unbundling with not-for-profit and profit-making corporations; Review of mergers, consolidations, and multihospital systems to decide when this option is most appropriate; Sale of a not-for-profit hospital to an investor-owned chain, with implications facing Catholic hospitals choosing this option; Impact and difficulty of developing meaningful alternative health care systems with the hospital's medical staff; Special problems of teaching hospitals; The social issue of the hospital shifting from the community's health center to a cost center; Increased turnover of hospital CEOs; With these in mind, institutions can then focus on solutions that can sometimes be used in tandem to resolve this problem's impact. The second part of this article will discuss some of them.

  16. Measuring progress towards achieving Millennium Development Goals in small populations: is under-five mortality in Tuvalu declining?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard; Linhart, Christine; Hayes, Geoffrey; Homasi, Steven

    2014-08-01

    Infant mortality rates (IMR) and under-five mortality rates (U5MR) in Tuvalu (2010 population 11,149) for 1990-2011 were evaluated to determine best estimates of levels and trends. Estimates were graphed over time to identify trends/inconsistencies, and censored for reliability/plausibility. Where possible, 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and tests for linear trend were calculated. Ministry of Health (MoH) data indicates IMR and U5MR (per 1,000 live births) declined over 1990-2008: IMR 62 (95%CI 46-81) for 1991-93 (51 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths); U5MR 67 (95%CI 50-87) for 1991-93 (55 deaths) to 19 (95%CI 10-33) for 2006-08 (12 deaths). The 2007 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) suggests recent trends are increasing: IMR 24 for 1998-2002 to 31 (95%CI 20-42) for 2003-07; U5MR 29 for 1998-2002 to 36 (95%CI 30-43) for 2003-07 (deaths not provided). Tests for linear trend and 95%CIs indicate MoH declines are statistically significant, but recent increased estimates from DHS are not, and could be affected by recall bias. Small populations provide challenges in interpretation of IMR/U5MR trends. To ensure the correct interpretation of rates, CIs (95%) and tests for trend should be calculated. Tuvalu has experienced steady decline in IMR/U5MR over the past 20 years. © 2014 Public Health Association of Australia.

  17. A human-driven decline in global burned area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andela, N; Morton, D C; Giglio, L; Chen, Y; van der Werf, G R; Kasibhatla, P S; DeFries, R S; Collatz, G J; Hantson, S; Kloster, S; Bachelet, D; Forrest, M; Lasslop, G; Li, F; Mangeon, S; Melton, J R; Yue, C; Randerson, J T

    2017-06-30

    Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  18. Are snake populations in widespread decline?

    OpenAIRE

    Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

    2010-01-01

    Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined ...

  19. Contaminant trends in lake trout and walleye from the Laurentian Great Lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeVault, David S.; Hesselberg, Robert J.; Rodgers, Paul W.; Feist, Timothy J.

    1996-01-01

    Trends in PCBs, DDT, and other contaminants have been monitored in Great Lakes lake trout and walleye since the 1970s using composite samples of whole fish. Dramatic declines have been observed in concentrations of PCB, ΣDDT, dieldrin, and oxychlordane, with declines initially following first order loss kinetics. Mean PCB concentrations in Lake Michigan lake trout increased from 13 μg/g in 1972 to 23 μg/g in 1974, then declined to 2.6 μg/g by 1986. Between 1986 and 1992 there was little change in concentration, with 3.5 μg/g observed in 1992. ΣDDT in Lake Michigan trout followed a similar trend, decreasing from 19.2 μg/g in 1970 to 1.1 μg/g in 1986, and 1.2 μg/g in 1992. Similar trends were observed for PCBs and ΣDDT in lake trout from Lakes Superior, Huron and Ontario. Concentrations of both PCB and ΣDDT in Lake Erie walleye declined between 1977 and 1982, after which concentrations were relatively constant through 1990. When originally implemented it was assumed that trends in the mean contaminant concentrations in open-lake fish would serve as cost effective surrogates to trends in the water column. While water column data are still extremely limited it appears that for PCBs in lakes Michigan and Superior, trends in lake trout do reasonably mimic those in the water column over the long term. Hypotheses to explain the trends in contaminant concentrations are briefly reviewed. The original first order loss kinetics used to describe the initial decline do not explain the more recent leveling off of contaminant concentrations. Recent theories have examined the possibilities of multiple contaminant pools. We suggest another hypothesis, that changes in the food web may have resulted in increased bioaccumulation. However, a preliminary exploration of this hypothesis using a change point analysis was inconclusive.

  20. World oil prices flat to declining

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adelman, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    A forecast is presented of the likely trends in world oil prices over the short to medium term. A historical background is presented of the OPEC cartel and its role in influencing oil prices. The incentives and disincentives for OPEC to raise prices, and the tensions within the cartel are explored. Slower demand growth and the expansion of natural gas are expected to put downward pressure on oil prices, which are currently artificially high. The impacts of high taxes on development and exploration are examined, and it is shown that state ownership poses an obstacle to improved performance. Threats of price decline are expected to continue to lead to threats of hasty, or even violent action on the part of OPEC members, as happened in 1990. Privatization and tax codes designed to skim rent are positive trends

  1. In search of millions of lost Starlings across Europe: The relation between monitoring, science and conservation in a declining species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heldbjerg, Henning; Fox, Anthony David

    The Starling (Sturnus vulgaris) is a widespread and common species, which is declining in large parts of its European range. We analysed and compared breeding population trends across Europe to investigate the causes of the declines. At the continental scale, the European population declined at a...

  2. Declining HIV prevalence among women attending antenatal care in Pune, India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kulkarni, Vinay; Joshi, Smita; Gupte, Nikhil; Parchure, Ritu; Darak, Shrinivas; Kulkarni, Sanjeevani

    A declining prevalence of HIV among young women has been reported by the public sector implementing prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) programmes, sentinel surveillance sites and research institutions ill India. However, there are no reports evaluating such trends from the private

  3. An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amugsi, Dickson A; Mittelmark, Maurice B; Lartey, Anna

    2013-10-16

    A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country's geographic regions. The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining. However, the aggregate national trend masks important deviations in certain socio

  4. Measured wind speed trends on the west coast of Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuller, Stanton E.

    2004-09-01

    Trends in measured wind speed are discussed for four stations on the west coast of Canada. Periods of record vary with the station. They begin in the late 1940s or the 1950s and run through to the early to mid 1990s. The most prominent feature of the time series was a decline in mean annual and winter wind speeds at Cape St James, Victoria International Airport, and Vancouver International Airport during the middle portion of the record. Declines in mean annual wind speed are matched by increases in the percentage of calms and decreases in high wind speed observations. The pressure gradient between Victoria, Vancouver and Comox, the Pacific North American index, the Pacific decadal oscillation index, and other climate elements in British Columbia and the northwestern USA show trends at roughly the same time, indicating a natural cause of the wind speed decrease. Comox Airport mean wind speeds increased, however, perhaps the result of reduced friction in the vicinity of the anemometer outweighing the decrease in the regional pressure gradient.

  5. Land use, fishing, climate change, and decline of Thompson River, British Columbia, coho salmon

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradford, M. J.; Irvine, J. R. [Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, BC (Canada)

    2000-01-01

    Reasons for the decline in abundance of Pacific salmon population in the Thompson River watershed in British Columbia was investigated. Results suggests that the decline could be the result of a declining trend in productivity related to changes in ocean conditions, overfishing, and changes in the freshwater habitat. The abundance of salmon correlated with agricultural land use, road density, and qualitative changes in stream habitat status; logging appeared to have had no such effect. It was concluded that salmon populations will continue to decline unless limits on fishing are strictly enforced, and unless salmon producing watersheds are restored and ocean conditions are significantly improved . 12 refs., 2 figs.

  6. Tendances de la societe francaise (Trends in French Society).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimmel, Alain

    1992-01-01

    Recent trends in French society are outlined, focusing on the decline of major institutions (the state, political parties, unions, education, and church), the decline of civic consciousness, the cult of money and competition, the cult of the media, evolution of social classes, and changes in the role of the family. (MSE)

  7. Individual testosterone decline and future mortality risk in men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmboe, Stine A; Skakkebæk, Niels E; Juul, Anders; Scheike, Thomas; Jensen, Tina K; Linneberg, Allan; Thuesen, Betina H; Andersson, Anna-Maria

    2018-01-01

    Male aging is characterized by a decline in testosterone (TS) levels with a substantial variability between subjects. However, it is unclear whether differences in age-related changes in TS are associated with general health. We investigated associations between mortality and intra-individual changes in serum levels of total TS, SHBG, free TS and LH during a ten-year period with up to 18 years of registry follow-up. 1167 men aged 30-60 years participating in the Danish Monitoring Trends and Determinants of Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA1) study and who had a follow-up examination ten years later (MONICA10) were included. From MONICA10, the men were followed up to 18 years (mean: 15.2 years) based on the information from national mortality registries via their unique personal ID numbers. Cox proportional hazard models were used to investigate the association between intra-individual hormone changes and all-cause, CVD and cancer mortalities. A total of 421 men (36.1%) died during the follow-up period. Men with most pronounced decline in total TS (mortality risk compared to men within the 10th to 90th percentile (hazard ratio (HR): 1.60; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-2.36). No consistent associations were seen in cause-specific mortality analyses. Our study showed that higher mortality rates were seen among the men who had the most pronounced age-related decline in TS, independent of their baseline TS levels. © 2018 European Society of Endocrinology.

  8. Global distribution of methane emissions, emission trends, and OH trends inferred from an inversion of GOSAT data for 2010-2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maasakkers, J. D.; Jacob, D.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Hersher, M.; Scarpelli, T.; Turner, A. J.; Sheng, J.; Bloom, A. A.; Bowman, K. W.; Parker, R.

    2017-12-01

    We present a global inversion of methane sources and sinks using GOSAT satellite data from 2010 up to 2015. The inversion optimizes emissions and their trends at 4° × 5° resolution as well as the interannual variability of global OH concentrations. It uses an analytical approach that quantifies the information content from the GOSAT observations and provides full error characterization. We show how the analytical approach can be applied in log-space, ensuring the positivity of the posterior. The inversion starts from state-of-science a priori emission inventories including the Gridded EPA inventory for US anthropogenic emissions, detailed oil and gas emissions for Canada and Mexico, EDGAR v4.3.2 for anthropogenic emissions in other countries, the WetCHARTs product for wetlands, and our own estimates for geological seeps. Inversion results show lower emissions over Western Europe and China than predicted by EDGAR v4.3.2 but higher emissions over Japan. In contrast to previous inversions that used incorrect patterns in a priori emissions, we find that the EPA inventory does not underestimate US anthropogenic emissions. Results for trends show increasing emissions in the tropics combined with decreasing emissions in Europe, and a decline in OH concentrations contributing to the global methane trend.

  9. Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillaume Souchay

    Full Text Available Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960-2010 of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY and older birds (after first-year; AFY originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity. Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions.

  10. A Global Perspective on Trends in Nature-Based Tourism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balmford, Andrew; Beresford, James; Green, Jonathan; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

    2009-01-01

    Reports of rapid growth in nature-based tourism and recreation add significant weight to the economic case for biodiversity conservation but seem to contradict widely voiced concerns that people are becoming increasingly isolated from nature. This apparent paradox has been highlighted by a recent study showing that on a per capita basis, visits to natural areas in the United States and Japan have declined over the last two decades. These results have been cited as evidence of “a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation”—but how widespread is this phenomenon? We address this question by looking at temporal trends in visitor numbers at 280 protected areas (PAs) from 20 countries. This more geographically representative dataset shows that while PA visitation (whether measured as total or per capita visit numbers) is indeed declining in the United States and Japan, it is generally increasing elsewhere. Total visit numbers are growing in 15 of the 20 countries for which we could get data, with the median national rate of change unrelated to the national rate of population growth but negatively associated with wealth. Reasons for this reversal of growth in the richest countries are difficult to pin down with existing data, but the pattern is mirrored by trends in international tourist arrivals as a whole and so may not necessarily be caused by disaffection with nature. Irrespective of the explanation, it is clear that despite important downturns in some countries, nature-related tourism is far from declining everywhere, and may still have considerable potential both to generate funds for conservation and to shape people's attitudes to the environment. PMID:19564896

  11. Variability and trends in the Arctic Sea ice cover: Results from different techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.; Meier, Walter N.; Gersten, Robert

    2017-08-01

    Variability and trend studies of sea ice in the Arctic have been conducted using products derived from the same raw passive microwave data but by different groups using different algorithms. This study provides consistency assessment of four of the leading products, namely, Goddard Bootstrap (SB2), Goddard NASA Team (NT1), EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF 1.2), and Hadley HadISST 2.2 data in evaluating variability and trends in the Arctic sea ice cover. All four provide generally similar ice patterns but significant disagreements in ice concentration distributions especially in the marginal ice zone and adjacent regions in winter and meltponded areas in summer. The discrepancies are primarily due to different ways the four techniques account for occurrences of new ice and meltponding. However, results show that the different products generally provide consistent and similar representation of the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Hadley and NT1 data usually provide the highest and lowest monthly ice extents, respectively. The Hadley data also show the lowest trends in ice extent and ice area at -3.88%/decade and -4.37%/decade, respectively, compared to an average of -4.36%/decade and -4.57%/decade for all four. Trend maps also show similar spatial distribution for all four with the largest negative trends occurring at the Kara/Barents Sea and Beaufort Sea regions, where sea ice has been retreating the fastest. The good agreement of the trends especially with updated data provides strong confidence in the quantification of the rate of decline in the Arctic sea ice cover.Plain Language SummaryThe declining Arctic sea ice cover, especially in the summer, has been the center of attention in recent years. Reports on the sea ice cover have been provided by different institutions using basically the same set of satellite data but different techniques for estimating key parameters such as ice concentration, ice extent, and ice area. In

  12. Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

    2015-01-01

    Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

  13. Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, Bridget R.; Zhang, Zizhan; Save, Himanshu; Sun, Alexander Y.; van Beek, Ludovicus P. H.; Wiese, David N.; Reedy, Robert C.; Longuevergne, Laurent; Döll, Petra; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing reliability of global models is critical because of increasing reliance on these models to address past and projected future climate and human stresses on global water resources. Here, we evaluate model reliability based on a comprehensive comparison of decadal trends (2002–2014) in land water storage from seven global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, GLDAS NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to trends from three Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite solutions in 186 river basins (∼60% of global land area). Medians of modeled basin water storage trends greatly underestimate GRACE-derived large decreasing (≤−0.5 km3/y) and increasing (≥0.5 km3/y) trends. Decreasing trends from GRACE are mostly related to human use (irrigation) and climate variations, whereas increasing trends reflect climate variations. For example, in the Amazon, GRACE estimates a large increasing trend of ∼43 km3/y, whereas most models estimate decreasing trends (−71 to 11 km3/y). Land water storage trends, summed over all basins, are positive for GRACE (∼71–82 km3/y) but negative for models (−450 to −12 km3/y), contributing opposing trends to global mean sea level change. Impacts of climate forcing on decadal land water storage trends exceed those of modeled human intervention by about a factor of 2. The model-GRACE comparison highlights potential areas of future model development, particularly simulated water storage. The inability of models to capture large decadal water storage trends based on GRACE indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced water storage changes may be underestimated. PMID:29358394

  14. Continent-wide tracking to determine migratory connectivity and tropical habitat associations of a declining aerial insectivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraser, Kevin C; Stutchbury, Bridget J M; Silverio, Cassandra; Kramer, Patrick M; Barrow, John; Newstead, David; Mickle, Nanette; Cousens, Bruce F; Lee, J Charlene; Morrison, Danielle M; Shaheen, Tim; Mammenga, Paul; Applegate, Kelly; Tautin, John

    2012-12-22

    North American birds that feed on flying insects are experiencing steep population declines, particularly long-distance migratory populations in the northern breeding range. We determine, for the first time, the level of migratory connectivity across the range of a songbird using direct tracking of individuals, and test whether declining northern populations have higher exposure to agricultural landscapes at their non-breeding grounds in South America. We used light-level geolocators to track purple martins, Progne subis, originating from North American breeding populations, coast-to-coast (n = 95 individuals). We show that breeding populations of the eastern subspecies, P. s. subis, that are separated by ca. 2000 km, nevertheless have almost completely overlapping non-breeding ranges in Brazil. Most (76%) P. s. subis overwintered in northern Brazil near the Amazon River, not in the agricultural landscape of southern Brazil. Individual non-breeding sites had an average of 91 per cent forest and only 4 per cent agricultural ground cover within a 50 km radius, and birds originating from declining northern breeding populations were not more exposed to agricultural landscapes than stable southern breeding populations. Our results show that differences in wintering location and habitat do not explain recent trends in breeding population declines in this species, and instead northern populations may be constrained in their ability to respond to climate change.

  15. Long-term trends of men's co-residence with children in England and Wales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ursula Henz

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Increasing numbers of childless men as well as fathers with reduced or no contact with their children have sparked concern about an erosion of fatherhood. Although the general trend is undisputed, claims about men's decreasing family involvement lack a sound empirical basis that enables comparisons between countries and sub-groups of society. Objective: This study derives long-term trends in father-child co-residence over the life course in England and Wales, and provides comparisons of these trends by level of education and ethnic origin. Methods: The paper calculates shares of father-child co-residence from the National Statistics Longitudinal Study (LS and the British Labour-Force Surveys (LFS. Results: There has been a decline of father-child co-residence in England and Wales for men in their thirties, an even greater decline for men in their twenties, and a small increase in the shares of father-child co-residence at higher ages. The trends for different educational groups were similar, but men with a degree had particularly low rates of father-child co-residence at younger ages, and relatively high ones at older ages. Neither less-educated men, nor men from Black-Caribbean and Black-African origins showed rates of father-child co-residence as low as one might have expected. Conclusions: The steady decline of father-child co-residence among men born between 1930 and 1979 in England and Wales lends support to claims about an erosion of fatherhood. However, it is unwarranted to generalize findings from other countries about particularly low levels of father-child co-residence among less-educated men to men in England and Wales.

  16. Trends in job satisfaction among German nurses from 1990 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

    2016-04-01

    Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. We used 1990-2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas that of doctors and other health care workers increased by 14.4% and 1%, respectively. The decline for part-time nurses (13%) was more pronounced than that for full-time nurses (3%). At the same time, nurses' pay rose by only 3.8% compared to a 23.8% increase for doctors. The steady decline in nurses' job satisfaction over the last two decades may be attributable to the multiple reforms and associated policy changes that generally disadvantaged nurses. Contributing factors to job satisfaction decline include lower pay and the demanding and strenuous work environment. Irrespective of the reason, health services researchers, leaders, and policy makers should investigate the reasons for this decline given the forecast growth in work load and complexity of care. Supportive policies for nurses would help enhance the quality and sustainability of German health care. © The Author(s) 2015.

  17. Widespread decline of Congo rainforest greenness in the past decade.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Liming; Tian, Yuhong; Myneni, Ranga B; Ciais, Philippe; Saatchi, Sassan; Liu, Yi Y; Piao, Shilong; Chen, Haishan; Vermote, Eric F; Song, Conghe; Hwang, Taehee

    2014-05-01

    Tropical forests are global epicentres of biodiversity and important modulators of climate change, and are mainly constrained by rainfall patterns. The severe short-term droughts that occurred recently in Amazonia have drawn attention to the vulnerability of tropical forests to climatic disturbances. The central African rainforests, the second-largest on Earth, have experienced a long-term drying trend whose impacts on vegetation dynamics remain mostly unknown because in situ observations are very limited. The Congolese forest, with its drier conditions and higher percentage of semi-evergreen trees, may be more tolerant to short-term rainfall reduction than are wetter tropical forests, but for a long-term drought there may be critical thresholds of water availability below which higher-biomass, closed-canopy forests transition to more open, lower-biomass forests. Here we present observational evidence for a widespread decline in forest greenness over the past decade based on analyses of satellite data (optical, thermal, microwave and gravity) from several independent sensors over the Congo basin. This decline in vegetation greenness, particularly in the northern Congolese forest, is generally consistent with decreases in rainfall, terrestrial water storage, water content in aboveground woody and leaf biomass, and the canopy backscatter anomaly caused by changes in structure and moisture in upper forest layers. It is also consistent with increases in photosynthetically active radiation and land surface temperature. These multiple lines of evidence indicate that this large-scale vegetation browning, or loss of photosynthetic capacity, may be partially attributable to the long-term drying trend. Our results suggest that a continued gradual decline of photosynthetic capacity and moisture content driven by the persistent drying trend could alter the composition and structure of the Congolese forest to favour the spread of drought-tolerant species.

  18. Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skuterud, L.; Aahman, B.; Solatie, D.; Gaare, E.

    2009-06-01

    The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for maintaining

  19. Long-term decline of radiocaesium in Fennoscandian reindeer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skuterud, L. (Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority, Norwegian Reindeer Husbandry Administration (Norway)); AAhman, B. (Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences (Sweden)); Solatie, D. (STUK-Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (Finland)); Gaare, E. (Norwegian Institute for Nature Researc (Norway))

    2009-06-15

    The NKS-B project REIN was established to synthesize the available information on contamination levels and effective half-times for 137Cs in reindeer in Finland, Sweden and Norway. Several studies of radiocaesium contamination in reindeer have been carried out in the Nordic countries over the last 50 years. However, the current slow decline in concentrations, which will maintain the consequences of the Chernobyl deposition for Swedish and Norwegian reindeer husbandry for at least another 10-20 years, have not previously been observed nor predicted. In the Chernobyl affected areas 137Cs concentrations in reindeer initially declined by effective half-times of 3-4 years, whereas the current decline appears to be mainly governed by the nuclide's physical half-life (30 years). The review of effective half-times of 137Cs in reindeer across Fennoscandia suggests that concentrations declined more rapidly in the northernmost areas. The reason(-s) remains unclear, and demonstrates the need for more long-term sampling of the various components of reindeer's diet. Such sampling should aim at covering climatically different areas, as climate may influence transfer of radiocaesium to reindeer via lichen growth and weathering rates, composition of plant communities and lichen availability, as well as soil-to-plant radiocaesium uptake. The lack of long-term data on radiocaesium in natural vegetation in the Nordic countries is one of the main limitations for the development of mechanistic models for radiocaesium in reindeer, and for further elucidation of the observed long-term trends in 137Cs concentrations in reindeer. Currently our understanding of the long-term trends observed in various areas is not good enough to predict how future radiocaesium deposition will behave. The high transfer of nuclides to reindeer, the geographical extension of reindeer herding and the special position of the Sami population in Finland, Sweden and Norway, demonstrates the need for

  20. Inter-annual variability and long-term trends in breeding success in a declining population of migratory swans.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wood, K.A.; Newth, J.L.; Hilton, G.M.; Nolet, B.A.; Rees, E.C.

    2016-01-01

    Population declines among migratory Arctic-breeding birds are a growing concern for conservationists. To inform the conservation of these declining populations, we need to understand how demographic rates such as breeding success are influenced by combinations of extrinsic and intrinsic factors. In

  1. Genetic variants affecting cross-sectional lung function in adults show little or no effect on longitudinal lung function decline

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    John, Catherine; Soler Artigas, María; Hui, Jennie

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous genetic regions that influence cross-sectional lung function. Longitudinal decline in lung function also includes a heritable component but the genetic determinants have yet to be defined. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to determine whether...... regions associated with cross-sectional lung function were also associated with longitudinal decline and to seek novel variants which influence decline. METHODS: We analysed genome-wide data from 4167 individuals from the Busselton Health Study cohort, who had undergone spirometry (12 695 observations...... across eight time points). A mixed model was fitted and weighted risk scores were calculated for the joint effect of 26 known regions on baseline and longitudinal changes in FEV1 and FEV1/FVC. Potential additional regions of interest were identified and followed up in two independent cohorts. RESULTS...

  2. Current trends in the health of children and young people in learning environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Garkusha

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Determined by the dynamics in the health of students and medical teams consisting of physical training in secondary schools. Analyzed the records in-depth inspection of magazines and leaflets health of 32484 schoolchildren of Chernigov for the period 2008-2012. Established a steady trend to a significant deterioration in the health of schoolchildren. A decline in the number of healthy children with the increase in the period of study from 1 to 11. Revealed negative trend decline in the health of children in the main medical group. Shows a tendency to increase the number of children belonging to the preparatory and special medical groups. It is recommended to use a recreational form of physical education and health educational use of technology. It is recommended to include in the training sessions: gymnastics, gymnastic minutes during lessons, exercise, and outdoor games on the elongated recess and daily physical education classes in the extended day, independent study after school, sports and mass work in the community.

  3. Northeast regional and state trends in anuran occupancy from calling survey data (2001-2011) from the North American Amphibian Monitoring Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weir, Linda A.; Royle, Andy; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Villena Carpio, Oswaldo

    2014-01-01

    We present the first regional trends in anuran occupancy from North American Amphibian Monitoring Program (NAAMP) data from 11 northeastern states using an 11 years of data. NAAMP is a long-term monitoring program where observers collect data at assigned random roadside routes using a calling survey technique. We assessed occupancy trends for 17 species. Eight species had statistically significant regional trends, of these seven were negative (Anaxyrus fowleri, Acris crepitans, Pseudacris brachyphona, Pseudacris feriarum-kalmi complex, Lithobates palustris, Lithobates pipiens, and Lithobates sphenocephalus) and one was positive (Hyla versicolor-chrysoscelis complex). We also assessed state level trends for 101 species/state combinations, of these 29 showed a significant decline and nine showed a significant increase in occupancy.

  4. Steeper declines in forest photosynthesis than respiration explain age-driven decreases in forest growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Jianwu; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Richardson, Andrew D; Kutsch, Werner; Janssens, Ivan A

    2014-06-17

    The traditional view of forest dynamics originated by Kira and Shidei [Kira T, Shidei T (1967) Jap J Ecol 17:70-87] and Odum [Odum EP (1969) Science 164(3877):262-270] suggests a decline in net primary productivity (NPP) in aging forests due to stabilized gross primary productivity (GPP) and continuously increased autotrophic respiration (Ra). The validity of these trends in GPP and Ra is, however, very difficult to test because of the lack of long-term ecosystem-scale field observations of both GPP and Ra. Ryan and colleagues [Ryan MG, Binkley D, Fownes JH (1997) Ad Ecol Res 27:213-262] have proposed an alternative hypothesis drawn from site-specific results that aboveground respiration and belowground allocation decreased in aging forests. Here, we analyzed data from a recently assembled global database of carbon fluxes and show that the classical view of the mechanisms underlying the age-driven decline in forest NPP is incorrect and thus support Ryan's alternative hypothesis. Our results substantiate the age-driven decline in NPP, but in contrast to the traditional view, both GPP and Ra decline in aging boreal and temperate forests. We find that the decline in NPP in aging forests is primarily driven by GPP, which decreases more rapidly with increasing age than Ra does, but the ratio of NPP/GPP remains approximately constant within a biome. Our analytical models describing forest succession suggest that dynamic forest ecosystem models that follow the traditional paradigm need to be revisited.

  5. Spatiotemporal trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhire, I.; Ahmed, F.

    2016-01-01

    This study aims at quantifying the trends in mean temperatures and aridity index over Rwanda for the period of 1961-1992, based on analysis of climatic data (temperatures, precipitations, and potential evapotranspiration). The analysis of magnitude and significance of trends in temperatures and aridity index show the degree of climate change and mark the level of vulnerability to extreme events (e.g., droughts) in different areas of the country. The study reveals that mean temperatures increased in most parts of the country, with a significant increase observed in the eastern lowlands and in the southwestern parts. The highlands located in the northwest and the Congo-Nile crest showed a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures. Aridity index increased only in March, April, October, and November, corresponding with the rainy seasons. The remaining months of the year showed a decreasing trend. At an annual resolution, the highlands and the western region showed a rise in aridity index with a decreasing pattern over the eastern lowlands and the central plateau. Generally, the highlands presented a nonsignificant increase in mean temperatures and aridity index especially during the rainy seasons. The eastern lowlands showed a significant increase in mean temperatures and decreasing trends in aridity index. Therefore, these areas are bound to experience more droughts, leading to reduced water and consequent decline in agricultural production. On the other hand, the north highlands and southwest region will continue to be more productive.

  6. Tuberculosis mortality trends in cuba, 1998 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, Edilberto; Risco, Grisel E; Borroto, Susana; Perna, Abel; Armas, Luisa

    2009-01-01

    Introduction Tuberculosis (TB) is a major cause of illness and death throughout the world. The World Health Organization's Global Plan to Stop TB 2006-2015 proposes that countries cut TB mortality by half compared to 1990 rates. In Cuba, TB mortality declined steadily throughout the 20th century, particularly after 1960. Objective Describe TB mortality distribution and trends in Cuba from January 1998 to December 2007 by infection site, sex, age and province, and determine progress towards the WHO's 2015 target for TB mortality reduction. Methods A time series ecological study was conducted. Death certificates stating TB as cause of death were obtained from the Ministry of Public Health's National Statistics Division, and population data by age group, sex, and province were obtained from the National Statistics Bureau. Crude and specific death rate trends and variation were analyzed. Results TB mortality declined from 0.4 per 100,000 population in 1998 to 0.2 (under half the 1990 rate) in 2007. Clinical forms of the disease, both pulmonary and extrapulmonary, also declined. The highest mortality rates were found in males and in the group aged ≥ 65 years. Rates were also highest in the capital, Havana, with extreme values of 0.73 and 0.39 per 100,000 population at the beginning and end of the period, respectively. Conclusions Deaths from TB declined steadily compared to total deaths and deaths caused by infectious diseases. The Global Plan to Stop TB target was met well ahead of 2015. If this trend continues, TB is likely to become an exceptional cause of death in Cuba.

  7. Species decline: A perspective on extinction, recovery, and propagation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, J.W.

    1983-01-01

    This keynote address was presented at the Conference on the Conservation of Endangered Species in Zoological Parks and Aquariums on April 18, 1982 at the National Aquarium in Baltimore. It outlines 1) future trends in the world's environment, resources, and population; 2) factors affecting species decline; 3) reasons for preserving life forms; and 4) techniques, with emphasis on captive propagation, used to assist in species recovery.

  8. Trends in lake chemistry in response to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming, 1993-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mast, M. Alisa; Ingersoll, George P.

    2011-01-01

    In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, began a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. The purpose of this report is to describe trends in the chemical composition of these high-elevation lakes. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) are evaluated over a similar period of record to determine likely drivers of changing lake chemistry. Sulfate concentrations in precipitation decreased over the past two decades at high-elevation monitoring stations in the Rocky Mountain region. The trend in deposition chemistry is consistent with regional declines in sulfur dioxide emissions resulting from installation of emission controls at large stationary sources. Trends in nitrogen deposition were not as widespread as those for sulfate. About one-half of monitoring stations showed increases in ammonium concentrations, but few showed significant changes in nitrate concentrations. Trends in nitrogen deposition appear to be inconsistent with available emission inventories, which indicate modest declines in nitrogen emissions in the Rocky Mountain region since the mid-1990s. This discrepancy may reflect uncertainties in emission inventories or changes in atmospheric transformations of nitrogen species that may be affecting deposition processes. Analysis of long-term climate records indicates that average annual mean air temperature minimums have increased from 0.57 to 0.75 °C per decade in mountain areas of the region with warming trends being more pronounced in Colorado. Trends in annual precipitation were not evident over the period 1990 to 2006, although wetter than average years during 1995 to 1997 and drier years during 2001 to 2004 caused a notable decline in precipitation

  9. Observed trends of soil fauna in the Antarctic Dry Valleys: early signs of shifts predicted under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andriuzzi, W S; Adams, B J; Barrett, J E; Virginia, R A; Wall, D H

    2018-02-01

    Long-term observations of ecological communities are necessary for generating and testing predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. We investigated temporal trends and spatial patterns of soil fauna along similar environmental gradients in three sites of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, spanning two distinct climatic phases: a decadal cooling trend from the early 1990s through the austral summer of February 2001, followed by a shift to the current trend of warming summers and more frequent discrete warming events. After February 2001, we observed a decline in the dominant species (the nematode Scottnema lindsayae) and increased abundance and expanded distribution of less common taxa (rotifers, tardigrades, and other nematode species). Such diverging responses have resulted in slightly greater evenness and spatial homogeneity of taxa. However, total abundance of soil fauna appears to be declining, as positive trends of the less common species so far have not compensated for the declining numbers of the dominant species. Interannual variation in the proportion of juveniles in the dominant species was consistent across sites, whereas trends in abundance varied more. Structural equation modeling supports the hypothesis that the observed biological trends arose from dissimilar responses by dominant and less common species to pulses of water availability resulting from enhanced ice melt. No direct effects of mean summer temperature were found, but there is evidence of indirect effects via its weak but significant positive relationship with soil moisture. Our findings show that combining an understanding of species responses to environmental change with long-term observations in the field can provide a context for validating and refining predictions of ecological trends in the abundance and diversity of soil fauna. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

  10. Trends in PM2.5 emissions, concentrations and apportionments in Detroit and Chicago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milando, Chad; Huang, Lei; Batterman, Stuart

    2016-03-01

    PM2.5 concentrations throughout much of the U.S. have decreased over the last 15 years, but emissions and concentration trends can vary by location and source type. Such trends should be understood to inform air quality management and policies. This work examines trends in emissions, concentrations and source apportionments in two large Midwest U.S. cities, Detroit, Michigan, and Chicago, Illinois. Annual and seasonal trends were investigated using National Emission Inventory (NEI) data for 2002 to 2011, speciated ambient PM2.5 data from 2001 to 2014, apportionments from positive matrix factorization (PMF) receptor modeling, and quantile regression. Over the study period, county-wide data suggest emissions from point sources decreased (Detroit) or held constant (Chicago), while emissions from on-road mobile sources were constant (Detroit) or increased (Chicago), however changes in methodology limit the interpretation of inventory trends. Ambient concentration data also suggest source and apportionment trends, e.g., annual median concentrations of PM2.5 in the two cities declined by 3.2-3.6%/yr (faster than national trends), and sulfate concentrations (due to coal-fired facilities and other point source emissions) declined even faster; in contrast, organic and elemental carbon (tracers of gasoline and diesel vehicle exhaust) declined more slowly or held constant. The PMF models identified nine sources in Detroit and eight in Chicago, the most important being secondary sulfate, secondary nitrate and vehicle emissions. A minor crustal dust source, metals sources, and a biomass source also were present in both cities. These apportionments showed that the median relative contributions from secondary sulfate sources decreased by 4.2-5.5% per year in Detroit and Chicago, while contributions from metals sources, biomass sources, and vehicles increased from 1.3 to 9.2% per year. This first application of quantile regression to trend analyses of speciated PM2.5 data reveals

  11. Epidemiology and trends in non-fatal self-harm in three centres in England: 2000-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergen, Helen; Hawton, Keith; Waters, Keith; Cooper, Jayne; Kapur, Navneet

    2010-12-01

    Self-harm is a common reason for presentation to a general hospital, with a strong association with suicide. Trends in self-harm are an important indicator of community psychopathology, with resource implications for health services and relevance to suicide prevention policy. Previous reports in the UK have come largely from single centres. To investigate trends in non-fatal self-harm in six general hospitals in three centres from the Multicentre Study of Self-harm in England, and to relate these to trends in suicide. Data on self-harm presentations to general hospital emergency departments in Oxford (one), Manchester (three) and Derby (two) were analysed over the 8-year period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2007. Rates of self-harm declined significantly over 8 years for males in three centres (Oxford: -14%; Manchester: -25%; Derby: -18%) and females in two centres (Oxford: -2% (not significant); Manchester: -13%; Derby: -17%), in keeping with national trends in suicide. A decreasing proportion and number of episodes involved self-poisoning alone, and an increasing proportion and number involved other self-injury (e.g. hanging, jumping, traffic related). Episodes involving self-cutting alone showed a slight decrease in numbers over time. Trends in alcohol use at the time of self-harm and repetition within 1 year were stable. There were decreasing rates of non-fatal self-harm over the study period that paralleled trends in suicide in England. This was reflected mainly in a decline in emergency department presentations for self-poisoning.

  12. Temporal trends 1987-2002 of regulated POPs in beluga whales from the St. Lawrence Estuary, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebeuf, M; Noel, M; Trottier, S.; Measures, L. [Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    Beluga populations in the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) are now threatened. The decline of the beluga population has been attributed to the presence of high concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This study assessed the temporal trends of POPs in beluga, including polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), DDT, chlordanes, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbon (HCH) isomers, halogenated cyclic hydrocarbons (HCB), and mirex in SLE populations between 1987 and 2002. Blubber concentrations of individual POP or POP groups in both male and female belugas were fitted to simple natural algorithms using linear regression analyses. Only animals older than 10 years were examined. POPs, PCBs, and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) were determined in blubber samples. Temporal trends of biological parameters such as age, lipid content, and length of the animals were assessed separately for both female and male belugas. POP concentrations were expressed on a lipid weight basis for the statistical analyses. Temporal trends of biological parameters, individual POP or POP group concentrations in both females and males were assessed using simple in-linear regression analysis from which half-life time was calculated for each statistically significant time trend. Results showed that approximately half of the POPs showed significant decreasing levels in female beluga between 1987 and 2002 and in males between 1988 and 2002. Temporal trends of PCBs, DDTs, and HCH were significant in both males and females, while chlordanes, and mirex levels were not significant in either sex. HCB exhibited a significant time trend in males. Time trends were in agreement with expected declines for regulated POPs. It was concluded that bioaccumulative POPs must be rapidly regulated before they reach high levels, as POP compounds are very slowly eliminated by belugas. 9 refs., 1 tab.

  13. Global fertility and population trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bongaarts, John

    2015-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the world and most countries have undergone unprecedented demographic change. The most obvious example of this change is the rise in human numbers, and there are also important trends in fertility, family structure, mortality, migration, urbanization, and population aging. This paper summarizes past trends and projections in fertility and population. After reaching 2.5 billion in 1950, the world population grew rapidly to 7.2 billion in 2013 and the projections expect this total to be 10.9 billion by 2100. World regions differ widely in their demographic trends, with rapid population growth and high fertility continuing in the poorest countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, while population decline, population aging, and very low fertility are now a key concern in many developed countries. These trends have important implications for human welfare and are of interest to policy makers. The conclusion comments briefly on policy options to address these adverse trends. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  14. Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Jennifer M; Hur, Chin; Schrag, Deb; Kuntz, Karen M; Ezzati, Majid; Stout, Natasha; Ward, Zachary; Goldie, Sue J

    2013-01-01

    Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58%) of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%). With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%). Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men. Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and reduction of

  15. Analysis of cerebrovascular disease mortality trends in Andalusia (1980-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F

    2017-03-15

    In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have decreased significantly in many countries. This study analyses recent tendencies in CVD mortality rates in Andalusia (1980-2014) to identify any changes in previously observed sex and age trends. CVD mortality and population data were obtained from Spain's National Statistics Institute database. We calculated age-specific and age-standardised mortality rates using the direct method (European standard population). Joinpoint regression analysis was used to estimate the annual percentage change in rates and identify significant changes in mortality trends. We also estimated rate ratios between Andalusia and Spain. Standardised rates for both males and females showed 3 periods in joinpoint regression analysis: an initial period of significant decline (1980-1997), a period of rate stabilisation (1997-2003), and another period of significant decline (2003-2014). Between 1997 and 2003, age-standardised rates stabilised in Andalusia but continued to decrease in Spain as a whole. This increased in the gap between CVD mortality rates in Andalusia and Spain for both sexes and most age groups. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Livingston, Michael; Callinan, Sarah; Raninen, Jonas; Pennay, Amy; Dietze, Paul M

    2018-04-01

    Survey data remain a crucial means for monitoring alcohol consumption, but there has been limited work done to ensure that surveys adequately capture changes in per-capita consumption in Australia. In this study, we explore how trends in consumption from two major Australian surveys compare with an official measure of per-capita consumption between 2001 and 2014 and examine age-specific trends in drinking. Data were from five waves of the cross-sectional National Health Survey (total n = 113 279) and 12 waves of the longitudinal Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Study (average n = 12 347). Overall and age-specific estimates of annual alcohol consumption were derived and compared with official per-capita consumption and previous analyses of the National Drug Strategy Household Survey. In terms of overall consumption, both surveys broadly reflected trends in per-capita consumption, especially the decline that has been observed since 2007/2008. Age-specific trends were broadly similar, with the recent decline in consumption clearly concentrated among teenagers and young adults. The main Australian monitoring surveys remain useful monitoring tools for alcohol consumption in Australia. There is consistent evidence that the recent declines in Australian per-capita consumption have been driven by sharp falls in drinking among young people, a trend that requires further study. [Livingston M, Callinan S, Raninen J, Pennay A, Dietze PM. Alcohol consumption trends in Australia: Comparing surveys and sales-based measures. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  17. Early-Transition Output Decline Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crt Kostevc

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we revisit the issue of aggregate output decline that took place in the early transition period. We propose an alternative explanation of output decline that is applicable to Central- and Eastern-European countries. In the first part of the paper we develop a simple dynamic general equilibrium model that builds on work by Gomulka and Lane (2001. In particular, we consider price liberalization, interpreted as elimination of distortionary taxation, as a trigger of the output decline. We show that price liberalization in interaction with heterogeneous adjustment costs and non-employment benefits lead to aggregate output decline and surge in wage inequality. While these patterns are consistent with actual dynamics in CEE countries, this model cannot generate output decline in all sectors. Instead sectors that were initially taxed even exhibit output growth. Thus, in the second part we consider an alternative general equilibrium model with only one production sector and two types of labor and distortion in a form of wage compression during the socialist era. The trigger for labor mobility and consequently output decline is wage liberalization. Assuming heterogeneity of workers in terms of adjustment costs and non-employment benefits can explain output decline in all industries.

  18. Trends in old-age mortality in seven European countries, 1950-1999

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janssen, F.; Mackenbach, J. P.; Kunst, A. E.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Different from the general observed decline in old-age mortality, for The Netherlands and Norway there have been reports of stagnation in the decline since the 1980s. We detect periods of stagnation in recent old-age mortality trends, and explore for which causes of death the recent

  19. Subjective cognitive decline and fall risk in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Tashiro, Yuto; Nozaki, Yuma; Aoyama, Tomoki

    2018-05-01

    The association between subjective cognitive decline and falls has not been clearly determined. Our aim was to explore the effect of subjective cognitive decline on falls in community-dwelling older adults with or without objective cognitive decline. We included 470 older adults (mean age 73.6 ± 5.2; 329 women) living in the community and obtained data on fall history directly from the participants. Subjective cognitive decline was assessed using a self-administered question. Objective cognitive function was measured using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Statistical analyses were carried out separately for participants with objective cognitive decline and those without. A multiple logistic regression analysis showed that, among participants without objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls [OR 1.91; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.17-3.12; p = 0.01). Conversely, among participants with objective cognitive decline, subjective cognitive decline was negatively associated with falls (OR 0.07; 95% CI 0.01-0.85, p = 0.04). The result suggests that the objective-subjective disparity may affect falls in community-dwelling older adults. The presence of subjective cognitive decline was significantly positively associated with falls among cognitively intact older adults. However, among their cognitively impaired peers, the absence of subjective cognitive decline was positively associated with falls.

  20. Smoking trends among Filipino adults in California, 1990-2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romero, Romina A; Messer, Karen; West, Joshua H; White, Martha M; Trinidad, Dennis R

    2008-04-01

    Filipinos comprise about 18% of the Asian/Pacific Islander American (APIA) population and are increasing. Few studies have examined Filipino current smoking prevalence rates (CSPR) and none have described trends over time. Trends in CSPR were estimated for Filipinos and non-Hispanic whites (NHW) from 1990-2002 from the California Tobacco Surveys (N>42,000/year). CSPR for Filipino males declined: 23.7% (95% CI: 18.7, 28.7) in 1990 to 18.7% (15.3, 22.1) in 2002 (pFilipino women was non-significant (p=0.24), 9.8% (5.5, 14.1) in 1990 and 7.7% (5.3, 10.1) in 2002. During the same period, CSPR among NHW males declined: 24.4% (23.8, 25.0) in 1990 to 18.8% (18.1, 19.4) in 2002 (pFilipinos suggest that English language use is associated with current smoking among females (pFilipino current smokers declined similarly to male NHW from 1990-2002; female rates were lower but did not decline. Future smoking prevention and cessation programs would benefit by taking into account important differences in smoking rates between genders and age groups.

  1. Trends in cancer mortality in Spain: the influence of the financial crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrando, Josep; Palència, Laia; Gotsens, Mercè; Puig-Barrachina, Vanessa; Marí-Dell'Olmo, Marc; Rodríguez-Sanz, Maica; Bartoll, Xavier; Borrell, Carme

    2018-02-13

    To determine if the onset of the economic crisis in Spain affected cancer mortality and mortality trends. We conducted a longitudinal ecological study based on all cancer-related deaths and on specific types of cancer (lung, colon, breast and prostate) in Spain between 2000 and 2013. We computed age-standardised mortality rates in men and women, and fit mixed Poisson models to analyse the effect of the crisis on cancer mortality and trends therein. After the onset of the economic crisis, cancer mortality continued to decline, but with a significant slowing of the yearly rate of decline (men: RR = 0.987, 95%CI = 0.985-0.990, before the crisis, and RR = 0.993, 95%CI = 0.991-0.996, afterwards; women: RR = 0.990, 95%CI = 0.988-0.993, before, and RR = 1.002, 95%CI = 0.998-1.006, afterwards). In men, lung cancer mortality was reduced, continuing the trend observed in the pre-crisis period; the trend in colon cancer mortality did not change significantly and continued to increase; and the yearly decline in prostate cancer mortality slowed significantly. In women, lung cancer mortality continued to increase each year, as before the crisis; colon cancer continued to decease; and the previous yearly downward trend in breast cancer mortality slowed down following the onset of the crisis. Since the onset of the economic crisis in Spain the rate of decline in cancer mortality has slowed significantly, and this situation could be exacerbated by the current austerity measures in healthcare. Copyright © 2018 SESPAS. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  2. Trends in atmospheric ammonium concentrations in relation to atmospheric sulfate and local agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Victoria R; Lovett, Gary M; Weathers, Kathleen C; Likens, Gene E

    2005-06-01

    Ammonium (NH(4)(+)) concentrations in air and precipitation at the Institute of Ecosystem Studies (IES) in southeastern New York, USA declined over an 11-year period from 1988 to 1999, but increased from 1999 to 2001. These trends in particulate NH(4)(+) correlated well with trends in particulate SO(4)(2-) over the 1988-2001 period. The NH(4)(+) trends were not as well correlated with local cattle and milk production, which declined continuously throughout the period. This suggests that regional transport of SO(4)(2-) may have a greater impact on concentrations of NH(4)(+) and subsequent deposition than local agricultural emissions of NH(3). Ammonium concentrations in precipitation correlated significantly with precipitation SO(4)(2-) concentrations for the 1984-2001 period although NH(4)(+) in precipitation increased after 1999 and SO(4)(2-) in precipitation continued to decline after 1999. The correlation between NH(4)(+) and SO(4)(2-) was stronger for particulates than for precipitation. Particulate NH(4)(+) concentrations were also correlated with particulate SO(4)(2-) concentrations at 31 of 35 eastern U.S. CASTNet sites that had at least 10 years of data. Air concentrations of NH(4)(+) and SO(4)(2-) were more strongly correlated at the sites that were located within an agricultural landscape than in forested sites. At most of the sites there was either no trend or a decrease in NH(4)(+) dry deposition during the 1988-2001 period. The sites that showed an increasing trend in NH(4)(+) dry deposition were generally located in the southeastern U.S. The results of this study suggest that, in the northeastern U.S., air concentrations of NH(4)(+) and subsequent deposition may be more closely linked to SO(4)(2-) and thus SO(2) emissions than with NH(3) emissions. These results also suggest that reductions in S emissions have reduced NH(4)(+) transport to and NH(4)(+)-N deposition in the Northeast.

  3. Temporal trends in sperm count

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levine, Hagai; Jørgensen, Niels; Martino-Andrade, Anderson

    2017-01-01

    a predefined protocol 7518 abstracts were screened and 2510 full articles reporting primary data on SC were reviewed. A total of 244 estimates of SC and TSC from 185 studies of 42 935 men who provided semen samples in 1973-2011 were extracted for meta-regression analysis, as well as information on years.......006, respectively). WIDER IMPLICATIONS: This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50-60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because......BACKGROUND: Reported declines in sperm counts remain controversial today and recent trends are unknown. A definitive meta-analysis is critical given the predictive value of sperm count for fertility, morbidity and mortality. OBJECTIVE AND RATIONALE: To provide a systematic review and meta-regression...

  4. CURRENT TRENDS OF ROMANIAN RURAL FAMILY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina IORGA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The profound changes experienced by the Romanian society had a profound social impact on the structure and functions of the rural family. The paper aims to highlight the main trends recorded using a number of indicators: ruralization rate, birth rate, infant mortality rate, percentage of children born outside marriage, fertility rate, percentage of population aged 65 and over. Statistics from censuses and statistical yearbooks were processed to identify the trends of the Romanian rural family: changes in reproductive behavior, increased aging, declining birth rates.

  5. An analysis of socio-demographic patterns in child malnutrition trends using Ghana demographic and health survey data in the period 1993–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background A small but growing body of research indicates that progress in reducing child malnutrition is substantially uneven from place to place, even down to the district level within countries. Yet child malnutrition prevalence and trend estimates available for public health planning are mostly available only at the level of global regions and/or at country level. To support carefully targeted intervention to reduce child malnutrition, public health planners and policy-makers require access to more refined prevalence data and trend analyses than are presently available. Responding to this need in Ghana, this report presents trends in child malnutrition prevalence in socio-demographic groups within the country’s geographic regions. Methods The study uses the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (GDHS) data. The GDHS are nationally representative cross-sectional surveys that have been carried out in many developing countries. These surveys constitute one of the richest sources of information currently available to examine time trends in child malnutrition. Data from four surveys were used for the analysis: 1993, 1998, 2003 and 2008. Results The results show statistically significant declining trends at the national level for stunting (F (1, 7204) = 7.89, p ≤ .005), underweight (F (1, 7441) = 44.87, p ≤ .001) and wasting (F (1, 7130) = 6.19, p ≤ .013). However, analyses of the sex-specific trends revealed that the declining trends in stunting and wasting were significant among males but not among females. In contrast to the national trend, there were significantly increasing trends in stunting for males (F (1, 2004) = 3.92, p ≤ .048) and females (F (1, 2004) = 4.34, p ≤ .037) whose mothers had higher than primary education, while the trends decreased significantly for males and females whose mothers had no education. Conclusions At the national level in Ghana, child malnutrition is significantly declining

  6. Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, C.; Vaartjes, I.; Blokstra, A.; Verschuren, W. M M; Visser, M.; Deeg, D. J H; Bots, M. L.; Van Dis, I.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD.  Methods: Data were obtained from five data

  7. Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. METHODS: Data were obtained from five data

  8. Evidence for acid-precipitation-induced trends in stream chemistry at hydrologic bench-mark stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Richard A.; Alexander, Richard B.

    1983-01-01

    Ten- to 15-year water-quality records from a network of headwater sampling stations show small declines in stream sulfate concentrations at stations in the northeastern quarter of the Nation and small increases in sulfate at most southeastern and western sites. The regional pattern of stream sulfate trends is similar to that reported for trends in S02 emissions to the atmosphere during the same period. Trends in the ratio of alkalinity to total major cation concentrations at the stations follow an inverse pattern of small increases in the Northeast and small, but widespread decreases elsewhere. The undeveloped nature of the sampled basins and the magnitude and direction of observed changes in relation to SO2 emissions support the hypothesis that the observed patterns in water quality trends reflect regional changes in the rates of acid deposition.

  9. Trends in amphibian occupancy in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Michael J.; Miller, David A.W.; Muths, Erin; Corn, Paul Stephen; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Bailey, Larissa L.; Fellers, Gary M.; Fisher, Robert N.; Sadinski, Walter J.; Waddle, Hardin; Walls, Susan C.

    2013-01-01

    Though a third of amphibian species worldwide are thought to be imperiled, existing assessments simply categorize extinction risk, providing little information on the rate of population losses. We conducted the first analysis of the rate of change in the probability that amphibians occupy ponds and other comparable habitat features across the United States. We found that overall occupancy by amphibians declined 3.7% annually from 2002 to 2011. Species that are Red-listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) declined an average of 11.6% annually. All subsets of data examined had a declining trend including species in the IUCN Least Concern category. This analysis suggests that amphibian declines may be more widespread and severe than previously realized.

  10. Trends in amphibian occupancy in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Adams

    Full Text Available Though a third of amphibian species worldwide are thought to be imperiled, existing assessments simply categorize extinction risk, providing little information on the rate of population losses. We conducted the first analysis of the rate of change in the probability that amphibians occupy ponds and other comparable habitat features across the United States. We found that overall occupancy by amphibians declined 3.7% annually from 2002 to 2011. Species that are Red-listed by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN declined an average of 11.6% annually. All subsets of data examined had a declining trend including species in the IUCN Least Concern category. This analysis suggests that amphibian declines may be more widespread and severe than previously realized.

  11. Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stübi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John; Bourassa, Adam; Davis, Sean M.; Degenstein, Doug; Frith, Stacey; Froidevaux, Lucien; Roth, Chris; Sofieva, Viktoria; Wang, Ray; Wild, Jeannette; Yu, Pengfei; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Rozanov, Eugene V.

    2018-02-01

    Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60° S and 60° N outside the polar regions (60-90°). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60° S and 60° N. We find that total column ozone between 60° S and 60° N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

  12. Evidence for a Continuous Decline in Lower Stratospheric Ozone Offsetting Ozone Layer Recovery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stuebi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John; hide

    2018-01-01

    Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective "ozone layer" around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60degS and 60degN outside the polar regions (60-90deg). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60degS and 60degN has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60degS and 60degN. We find that total column ozone between 60degS and 60degN appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

  13. Rapid Decline in Carbon Monoxide Emissions and Export from East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, B.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Yin, Y.; Wang, Y.; Zhang, Q.; He, K.

    2017-12-01

    MOPITT satellite- and ground-based measurements both suggest of a widespread downward trend in CO concentrations over East Asia during the period 2005-2016. This negative trend is inconsistent with bottom-up inventories of CO emissions, which show a small increase or stable emissions in this region, except for the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC). We try to reconcile the observed CO trend with emission inventories using an inversion of the MOPITT CO data that provides emissions from primary sources, secondary CO production, and chemical sinks of CO. We find that the decreasing trend of -0.41% yr-1 for CO column concentrations over East Asia is mainly due to a -2.51% yr-1 decrease in emissions from primary sources over this region, or a cumulative decline of -32% from 2005 to 2016. This emission decrease is enough to counterbalance the effect of rising concentrations of CH4 in East Asia, that increase the secondary CO formation at a rate of 1.56% yr-1, according to our multispecies inversion. The reducing emissions are mainly contributed by China. The MEIC inventory is the only one to be consistent with the inversion-diagnosed regional decrease of CO emissions. According to this inventory, decreased CO emissions from four main sectors (iron and steel industries, residential sources, gasoline vehicles, and construction materials industries) in China explain 76% of the inversion-based trend of emissions from East Asia. This result suggests that global inventories underestimated the recent decrease of CO emission factors in China which occurred despite the increasing consumption of carbon-based fuels, and is driven by fast technological changes and emission control measures.

  14. Temporal trends in reproductive performance in Irish dairy herds and associated risk factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mee John F

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available Irish dairy herd fertility has been declining since the 1980s. The extent, nature and causes of this decline in fertility and the current status of Irish dairy herd fertility were described. An increase in calving interval of approximately one day per year has been recorded. The principal components of this trend have been an increased incidence of postpartum endocrinopathies, reduced expression of oestrus and a fall in conception rate. Both submission rate and calving-to-service interval have increased slightly over time. Significant risk factors associated with these trends have been strain substitution within the Holstein-Friesian breed and single trait selection for milk production. Critically, these changes have been reflected in loss of body condition. Contributory factors included increased herd size and possibly increased use of DIYAI. The most recent Irish study showed that 48% of cows conceived to first service and 14% of cows were not pregnant at the end of the industry-average 15-week spring breeding season. However, the top quartile of herds achieved a first-service conception rate of 59%, illustrating the wide variation between herds. These phenotypic trends were attributed to both genetic and environmental factors and their interactions. Recent Irish dairy herd fertility performance falls short of the targets set for seasonal compact calving.

  15. Reproductive behaviour in the 1980s: Europe revisited. Council of Europe: an account of the work of a committee of experts on fertility trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deven, F

    1985-01-01

    This article highlights the findings of a 3-stage analysis conducted in 1982-85 by the Council of Europe Committee of Experts on Fertility Trends: The 1st phase involved a demographic analysis of reproductive behavior in the past decade, the 2nd focused on the background of recent fertility trends, and the 3rd examined possible consequences of these trends. Participating countries included Belgium, France, Federal Republic of Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, and Switzerland. During the 1970s; most of these countries experienced a continuation of the fertility decline begun in the mid-60s, resulting in the large majority of countries in below-replacement reproduction. In general, the effect of the fertility decline on the birth rate has been partially compensated by the favorable age structure of the reproductive age population. In the 1st half of the 1970s, both nuptiality and reproductive behavior in marriage contributed to the fertility decline; in the 2nd half, marital fertility showed increases. The fertility decline in the 1st half of the 1970s largely reflected the steep decline in fertility among younger age groups, whereas a rise in the fertility in the older age groups was a characteristic of the late 1970s. However, the stabilization or even slight increase in fertility noted in the late 1970s in several European countries reverted to a decline in the early 1980s. In general, small family size appears to be viewed as a good compromise between pyschological and economic costs and benefits. These low fertility trends have had a dramatic effect on household composition and have also facilitated women's personal growth and economic independence. These trends are expected to lead to demographic aging of the population and alleviation of pressures on the labor market. All such changes will require adaptive population policy measures. It is important that such policies do not endanger achievements of modernization such as human

  16. Linking performance decline to choking: players' perceptions in basketball.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fryer, Ashley Marie; Tenenbaum, Gershon; Chow, Graig M

    2018-02-01

    This study was aimed at examining how basketball players view unexpected performance errors in basketball, and under what conditions they perceive them as choking. Fifty-three basketball players were randomly assigned into 2 groups (game half) to evaluate the linkage between performance decline and choking as a function of game-time, score gap and game half. Within each group, players viewed 8 scenario clips, which featured a different player conducting an error, and subsequently rated the extent of performance decline, the instance of choking and the salience of various performance attributions regarding the error. The analysis revealed that choking was most salient in the 2nd half of the game, but an error was perceived as choking more saliently in the beginning of the 2nd half. This trend was also shown for players' perception of performance decline. Players' ratings of the attributions assigned to errors, however, revealed that during the end of the 2nd half, time pressure and lack of concentration were the causes of errors. Overall, the results provide evidence towards a conceptual framework linking performance decline to the perception of choking, and that errors conducted by players are perceived as choking when there is not a salient reason to suggest its occurrence.

  17. Detecting long-term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Richard L; Groenendijk, Peter; Vlam, Mart; Zuidema, Pieter A

    2015-05-01

    Tree-ring analysis is often used to assess long-term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth-trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long-term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree-ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree-ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results - a growth decline over time - but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth-trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (-6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (-2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no-trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth-trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability

  18. Is reduced benthic flux related to the Diporeia decline? Analysis of spring blooms and whiting events in Lake Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watkins, James M.; Rudstam, Lars G.; Crabtree, Darran L.; Walsh, Maureen

    2013-01-01

    Benthic monitoring by USGS off the southern shore of Lake Ontario from October 1993 to October 1995 provides a detailed view of the early stages of the decline of the native amphipod Diporeia. A loss of the 1994 and 1995 year classes of Diporeia preceded the disappearance of the native amphipod at sites near Oswego and Rochester at depths from 55 to 130 m. In succeeding years, Diporeia populations continued to decline in Lake Ontario and were nearly extirpated by 2008. Explanations for Diporeia 's decline in the Great Lakes include several hypotheses often linked to the introduction and expansion of exotic zebra and quagga mussels (Dreissena sp.). We compare the timeline of the Diporeia decline in Lake Ontario with trends in two sources of organic matter to the sediments — spring diatom blooms and late summer whiting events. The 1994–95 decline of Diporeia coincided with localized dreissenid effects on phytoplankton in the nearshore and a year (April 1994 to May 1995) of decreased flux of organic carbon recorded by sediment traps moored offshore of Oswego. Later declines of profundal (> 90 m) Diporeia populations in 2003 were poorly associated with trends in spring algal blooms and late summer whiting events. Lake Ontario/Diporeia/Dreissena/remote sensing.

  19. Recent trends in elderly suicide rates in England and Wales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoxey, K; Shah, A

    2000-03-01

    The proportion of elderly in the population is increasing due to increased life expectancy and falling birth rate, and suicide rates increase with age. This study examined the following in England and Wales: (i) recent trends in the elderly suicide rate; (ii) recent trends in method-specific elderly suicide rate; (iii) the relationship between elderly population size and elderly suicide rate in recent years; and (iv) the sex difference in overall and method-specific elderly suicide rate. Data on the various suicide variables were ascertained from the annually published mortality data for years 1985 to 1996. The main findings of this study were: (i) there is a trend towards decline in the overall pure and combined suicide rates for elderly men and women over the 12 year study period; (ii) the main contributors to this decline are suicides due to poisoning by solid and liquid substances (E950), hanging, strangulation and suffocation (E953), drowning (E954), firearms and explosives (E955), and jumping from high places (E957); (iii) the overall pure and combined suicide rates and that for most categories of suicide was higher in men compared to women; and (iv) suicide rates decreased with an increase in the elderly population size. Suicide rates can decline due to a number of reasons. The challenge now is to ensure further decline in suicide rates to meet the Our Healthier Nations target.

  20. Comparison of Decadal Water Storage Trends from Global Hydrological Models and GRACE Satellite Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scanlon, B. R.; Zhang, Z. Z.; Save, H.; Sun, A. Y.; Mueller Schmied, H.; Van Beek, L. P.; Wiese, D. N.; Wada, Y.; Long, D.; Reedy, R. C.; Doll, P. M.; Longuevergne, L.

    2017-12-01

    Global hydrology is increasingly being evaluated using models; however, the reliability of these global models is not well known. In this study we compared decadal trends (2002-2014) in land water storage from 7 global models (WGHM, PCR-GLOBWB, and GLDAS: NOAH, MOSAIC, VIC, CLM, and CLSM) to storage trends from new GRACE satellite mascon solutions (CSR-M and JPL-M). The analysis was conducted over 186 river basins, representing about 60% of the global land area. Modeled total water storage trends agree with those from GRACE-derived trends that are within ±0.5 km3/yr but greatly underestimate large declining and rising trends outside this range. Large declining trends are found mostly in intensively irrigated basins and in some basins in northern latitudes. Rising trends are found in basins with little or no irrigation and are generally related to increasing trends in precipitation. The largest decline is found in the Ganges (-12 km3/yr) and the largest rise in the Amazon (43 km3/yr). Differences between models and GRACE are greatest in large basins (>0.5x106 km2) mostly in humid regions. There is very little agreement in storage trends between models and GRACE and among the models with values of r2 mostly store water over decadal timescales that is underrepresented by the models. The storage capacity in the modeled soil and groundwater compartments may be insufficient to accommodate the range in water storage variations shown by GRACE data. The inability of the models to capture the large storage trends indicates that model projections of climate and human-induced changes in water storage may be mostly underestimated. Future GRACE and model studies should try to reduce the various sources of uncertainty in water storage trends and should consider expanding the modeled storage capacity of the soil profiles and their interaction with groundwater.

  1. [Recent demographic trends].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    A review of demographic trends in Luxembourg in 1982 is presented. A decline in fertility, the first since 1977, is noted, together with an increase in divorce, as well as a negative migration balance for the first time since 1967. Topics covered include natural increase and migration, fertility, marriage and divorce, mortality, adoption, and legislation affecting the family. Special consideration is given to the mortality experience of those who were subjected to compulsory labor during World War II.

  2. Evidence for link between modelled trends in Antarctic sea ice and underestimated westerly wind changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purich, Ariaan; Cai, Wenju; England, Matthew H; Cowan, Tim

    2016-02-04

    Despite global warming, total Antarctic sea ice coverage increased over 1979-2013. However, the majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 models simulate a decline. Mechanisms causing this discrepancy have so far remained elusive. Here we show that weaker trends in the intensification of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind jet simulated by the models may contribute to this disparity. During austral summer, a strengthened jet leads to increased upwelling of cooler subsurface water and strengthened equatorward transport, conducive to increased sea ice. As the majority of models underestimate summer jet trends, this cooling process is underestimated compared with observations and is insufficient to offset warming in the models. Through the sea ice-albedo feedback, models produce a high-latitude surface ocean warming and sea ice decline, contrasting the observed net cooling and sea ice increase. A realistic simulation of observed wind changes may be crucial for reproducing the recent observed sea ice increase.

  3. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    João P. Silva

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax. Methods We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003–2006 and 2016 in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Results Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10–14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline compared to losses within SPA (25% decline. However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . Discussion In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  4. EU protected area network did not prevent a country wide population decline in a threatened grassland bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, João P; Correia, Ricardo; Alonso, Hany; Martins, Ricardo C; D'Amico, Marcello; Delgado, Ana; Sampaio, Hugo; Godinho, Carlos; Moreira, Francisco

    2018-01-01

    Few studies have assessed the effectiveness of the Protected Area networks on the conservation status of target species. Here, we assess the effectiveness of the Portuguese Natura 2000 (the European Union network of protected areas) in maintaining a species included in the Annex I of the Bird Directive, namely the population of a priority farmland bird, the little bustard Tetrax tetrax . We measured the effectiveness of the Natura 2000 by comparing population trends across time (2003-2006 and 2016) in 51 areas, 21 of which within 12 Special Protection Areas (SPA) that were mostly designated for farmland bird conservation and another 30 areas without EU protection. Overall, the national population is estimated to have declined 49% over the last 10-14 years. This loss was found to be proportionally larger outside SPA (64% decline) compared to losses within SPA (25% decline). However, the absolute male density decline was significantly larger within SPA . In spite of holding higher population densities and having prevented habitat loss, we conclude that Natura 2000 was not effective in buffering against the overall bustard population decline. Results show that the mere designation of SPA in farmland is not enough to secure species populations and has to be combined with agricultural policies and investment to maintain not only habitat availability but also habitat quality.

  5. Regular physical activity modifies smoking-related lung function decline and reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Aymerich, J; Lange, Peter; Benet, M

    2007-01-01

    RATIONALE: We have previously reported that regular physical activity reduces risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation. We hypothesized that higher levels of regular physical activity could reduce the risk of COPD by modifying smoking-related lung function decline....... OBJECTIVE: To estimate the longitudinal association between regular physical activity and FEV(1) and FVC decline and COPD risk. METHODS: A population-based sample (n = 6,790) was recruited and assessed with respect to physical activity, smoking, lung function, and other covariates, in Copenhagen in 1981....../yr of FEV(1), P-for-trend = 0.006, and +2.6 and +7.7 ml/yr of FVC, P-for-trend function decline. Active smokers with moderate to high physical activity had...

  6. Declining resilience of ecosystem functions under biodiversity loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H; Isaac, Nick J B; August, Tom A; Woodcock, Ben A; Roy, David B; Bullock, James M

    2015-12-08

    The composition of species communities is changing rapidly through drivers such as habitat loss and climate change, with potentially serious consequences for the resilience of ecosystem functions on which humans depend. To assess such changes in resilience, we analyse trends in the frequency of species in Great Britain that provide key ecosystem functions--specifically decomposition, carbon sequestration, pollination, pest control and cultural values. For 4,424 species over four decades, there have been significant net declines among animal species that provide pollination, pest control and cultural values. Groups providing decomposition and carbon sequestration remain relatively stable, as fewer species are in decline and these are offset by large numbers of new arrivals into Great Britain. While there is general concern about degradation of a wide range of ecosystem functions, our results suggest actions should focus on particular functions for which there is evidence of substantial erosion of their resilience.

  7. Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mast, M Alisa

    2013-11-01

    The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970-2010 and 1990-2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO₂ emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

  8. Evaluation of stream chemistry trends in US Geological Survey reference watersheds, 1970-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mast, M. Alisa

    2013-01-01

    The Hydrologic Benchmark Network (HBN) is a long-term monitoring program established by the US Geological Survey in the 1960s to track changes in the streamflow and stream chemistry in undeveloped watersheds across the USA. Trends in stream chemistry were tested at 15 HBN stations over two periods (1970–2010 and 1990–2010) using the parametric Load Estimator (LOADEST) model and the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test. Trends in annual streamflow and precipitation chemistry also were tested to help identify likely drivers of changes in stream chemistry. At stations in the northeastern USA, there were significant declines in stream sulfate, which were consistent with declines in sulfate deposition resulting from the reductions in SO2 emissions mandated under the Clean Air Act Amendments. Sulfate declines in stream water were smaller than declines in deposition suggesting sulfate may be accumulating in watershed soils and thereby delaying the stream response to improvements in deposition. Trends in stream chemistry at stations in other part of the country generally were attributed to climate variability or land disturbance. Despite declines in sulfate deposition, increasing stream sulfate was observed at several stations and appeared to be linked to periods of drought or declining streamflow. Falling water tables might have enhanced oxidation of organic matter in wetlands or pyrite in mineralized bedrock thereby increasing sulfate export in surface water. Increasing sulfate and nitrate at a station in the western USA were attributed to release of soluble salts and nutrients from soils following a large wildfire in the watershed.

  9. Contribution of H. pylori and smoking trends to US incidence of intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma: a microsimulation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer M Yeh

    Full Text Available Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA incidence.We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS. Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men, <3% discrepancy from national statistics. H. pylori and smoking trends combined accounted for 47% (range = 30%-58% of the observed decline. With no tobacco control, incidence would have declined only 56%, suggesting that lower smoking initiation and higher cessation rates observed after the 1960s accelerated the relative decline in cancer incidence by 7% (range = 0%-21%. With continued risk factor trends, incidence is projected to decline an additional 47% between 2008 and 2040, the majority of which will be attributable to H. pylori and smoking (81%; range = 61%-100%. Limitations include assuming all other risk factors influenced gastric carcinogenesis as one factor and restricting the analysis to men.Trends in modifiable risk factors explain a significant proportion of the decline of intestinal-type NCGA incidence in the US, and are projected to continue. Although past tobacco control efforts have hastened the decline, full benefits will take decades to be realized, and further discouragement of smoking and

  10. Declining Segregation of Same-Sex Partners: Evidence from Census 2000 and 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Despite recent media and scholarly attention describing the “disappearance” of traditionally gay neighborhoods, urban scholars have yet to quantify the segregation of same-sex partners and determine whether declining segregation from different-sex partners is a wide-spread trend. Focusing on the 100 most populous places in the United States, I use data from the 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census to examine the segregation of same-sex partners over time and its place-level correlates. I estimate linear regression models to examine the role of four place characteristics in particular: average levels of education, aggregate trends in the family life cycle of same-sex partners, violence and social hostility motivated by sexual orientation bias, and representation of same-sex partners in the overall population. On average, same-sex partners were less segregated from different-sex partners in 2010 than in 2000, and the vast majority of same-sex partners lived in environments of declining segregation. Segregation was lower and declined more rapidly in places that had a greater percentage of graduate degree holders. In addition, segregation of female partners was lower in places that had a greater share of female partner households with children. These findings suggest that sexual orientation should be considered alongside economic status, race, and ethnicity as an important factor that contributes to neighborhood differentiation and urban spatial inequality. PMID:24187412

  11. Ecological analysis of secular trends in low birth weight births and adult height in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morisaki, Naho; Urayama, Kevin Yuji; Yoshii, Keisuke; Subramanian, S V; Yokoya, Susumu

    2017-10-01

    Japan, which currently maintains the highest life expectancy in the world and has experienced an impressive gain in adult height over the past century, has suffered a dramatic twofold increase in low birth weight (LBW) births since the 1970s. We observed secular trends in birth characteristics using 64 115 249 live births included the vital statistics (1969-2014), as well as trends in average height among 3 145 521 adults born between 1969 and 1996, included in 79 surveys conducted among a national, subnational or community population in Japan. LBW rates exhibited a U-shaped pattern showing reductions until 1978-1979 (5.5%), after which it increased. Conversely, average adult height peaked for those born during the same period (men, 171.5 cm; women, 158.5 cm), followed by a reduction over the next 20 years. LBW rate and adult height showed a strong inverse correlation (men, r=-0.98; women, r=-0.88). A prediction model based on birth and economical characteristics estimated the national average of adult height would continue to decline, to 170.0cm (95% CI 169.6 to 170.3) for men and 157.9cm (95% CI 157.5 to 158.3) for women among those born in 2014. Adult height in Japan has started to decline for those born after 1980, a trend that may be attributed to increases in LBW births over time. Considering the known association between shorter adult height and adverse health outcomes, evidence of population-level decline in adult health due to long-term consequences of increasing LBW births in Japan is anticipated. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  12. Demographic Trends in Germany and their Economic Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Rembrandt Scholz; Carsten Schröder

    2012-01-01

    The present paper explores demographic trends in Germany, as well as the determinants of these trends, and the economic implications of these demographic changes for the country. A detailed spatial analysis reveals substantial differences in the speed and intensity of the processes of population aging and population decline across the German regions. The results indicate that these processes are particularly pronounced in the state of Mecklenburg Western-Pomerania. As a new contribution to th...

  13. Trends in esophageal cancer mortality in China during 1987-2009: age, period and birth cohort analyzes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Pi; Li, Ke

    2012-04-01

    Esophageal cancer is one of the most commonly diagnosed malignant tumors in China. The aim of this study was to provide the representative and comprehensive informations about the long-term mortality trends of this disease in China between 1987 and 2009, using joinpoint regression and generalized additive models (GAMs). Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), overall and truncated (35-64 years), were calculated using the direct calculation method, and joinpoint regression was performed to obtain the estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). GAMs were fitted to study the effects of age, period and birth cohort on mortality trends. ASMR exhibited an overall remarked decline for rural females (EAPC=-2.3 95%CI: -3.3, -1.2), urban males (EAPC=-1.8 95%CI: -2.6, -1.0) and urban females (EAPC=-3.7 95%CI: -4.9, -2.4), but a small drop observed was not statistically significant for rural males (EAPC=-0.9 95%CI: -2.0, 0.3). The declines in ASMR were more noticeable for urban residents in recent years. Among all the residents, age effect showed an progressively increasing trend, whereas cohort effect declined steadily after the year corresponding to the maximum risk value. Period effect seemed to remain substantially unchanged throughout the years. Although variations in mortality rates were observed according to sex and area, the overall decreasing trends in esophageal cancer mortality were found in most Chinese people, aside from rural males. The findings could correspond to the changes in age- and cohort-related factors in the population. Further study is required to understand these potential factors. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Trends in youth internet victimization: findings from three youth internet safety surveys 2000-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lisa M; Mitchell, Kimberly J; Finkelhor, David

    2012-02-01

    The purpose of this research was to explore the trends in youth reports of unwanted online sexual solicitation, harassment, and exposure to pornography over time. The study was based on three separate cross-sectional national telephone surveys of approximately 1,500 youth Internet users, aged 10 through 17 years. Data were collected in 2000, 2005, and 2010. Nine percent of youth reported an unwanted sexual solicitation in 2010. This continued the decline in unwanted sexual solicitations that occurred between 2000 (19%) and 2005 (13%), resulting in a total 50% decrease between 2000 and 2010. Twenty-three percent of youth reported an unwanted exposure to pornography, a decline from 34% in 2005, following an increase between 2000 and 2005 (25% to 34%). However, marking the only trend to show an increase over the past 5 years, 11% of youth reported an online harassment experience, which was an increase from 9% in 2005, and 6% in 2000. Some differences in these trends were noted for subgroups of youth across age, gender, and race. The trends in unwanted experiences online over the past decade identified by three Youth Internet Safety Surveys may contradict impressions that the general population, professionals, and the media have about what is happening. Trends provide evidence for some optimism that protective adaptations to the online environment have been successful; however, online harassment appears to be increasing for youth, particularly girls, and may require additional mobilization. Copyright © 2012 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Preventing cognitive decline, sedentariness and malnutrition: the DOREMI approach

    OpenAIRE

    Parodi, Oberdan; Vozzi, Federico; Ferro, Erina; Fortunati, Luigi; Micheli, Alessio; Bacciu, Davide; Gallicchio, Claudio; Chessa, Stefano; Ascolese, Antonio

    2015-01-01

    All countries in Europe are experiencing an ageing of their populations, with a decrease in the number of people of working age per retiree. Health trends among the elderly are mixed: severe disability is declining in some countries but increasing in others, while mild disability and chronic disease are generally increasing. As a consequence, long-term care costs are certain to increase with the ageing of the population, unless appropriate measures are implemented and elderly people empowered...

  16. Forty-year trends in the flux and concentration of phosphorus in British rivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Civan, Aylin; Worrall, Fred; Jarvie, Helen P.; Howden, Nicholas J. K.; Burt, Tim P.

    2018-03-01

    Given the importance of phosphorus (P) in the eutrophication of natural waters, this study considered the long-term time series of total phosphorus (TP) and total reactive phosphorus (TRP) in British rivers from 1974 to 2012. The approach included not only trend analysis of fluxes and concentrations but also change point analysis. TP and TRP concentrations and fluxes in British rivers have declined since the mid-1980s. Over the last decade of the record the majority of individual sites did show significant downward trends in TP and TRP concentrations but, in 28% of cases for TRP concentration and 14% of cases for TP concentration, the decadal trend was a significant increase. Out of 230 sites, 136 showed a significant step decrease in TRP concentration; no sites showed a significant step increase. The modal year for the step changes for both TRP concentration and flux was 1997. Step changes are likely associated with improvements made at sewage treatment works to comply with the Urban Waste Water Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC). The decrease in TRP concentration due to the step change were in the range of 0.68% and 89% with a geometric mean of 22%, with the rest of the decrease accounted by long-term, persistent downward trend.

  17. Amphibian populations in the terrestrial environment: Is there evidence of declines of terrestrial forest amphibians in northwestern California?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartwell H. Welsh Jr.; Gary M. Fellers; Amy J. Lind

    2007-01-01

    Amphibian declines have been documented worldwide; however the vast majority are species associated with aquatic habitats. Information on the status and trends of terrestrial amphibians is almost entirely lacking. Here we use data collected across a 12-yr period (sampling from 1984–86 and from 1993–95) to address the question of whether evidence exists for declines...

  18. Trends of VOC exposures among a nationally representative sample: Analysis of the NHANES 1988 through 2004 data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Feng-Chiao; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Batterman, Stuart

    2011-09-01

    Exposures to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are ubiquitous due to emissions from personal, commercial and industrial products, but quantitative and representative information regarding long term exposure trends is lacking. This study characterizes trends from 1988 to 2004 for the 15 VOCs measured in blood in five cohorts of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a large and representative sample of U.S. adults. Trends were evaluated at various percentiles using linear quantile regression (QR) models, which were adjusted for solvent-related occupations and cotinine levels. Most VOCs showed decreasing trends at all quantiles, e.g., median exposures declined by 2.5 (m,p-xylene) to 6.4 (tetrachloroethene) percent per year over the 15 year period. Trends varied by VOC and quantile, and were grouped into three patterns: similar decreases at all quantiles (including benzene, toluene); most rapid decreases at upper quantiles (ethylbenzene, m,p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chloroform, tetrachloroethene); and fastest declines at central quantiles (1,4-dichlorobenzene). These patterns reflect changes in exposure sources, e.g., upper-percentile exposures may result mostly from occupational exposure, while lower percentile exposures arise from general environmental sources. Both VOC emissions aggregated at the national level and VOC concentrations measured in ambient air also have declined substantially over the study period and are supportive of the exposure trends, although the NHANES data suggest the importance of indoor sources and personal activities on VOC exposures. While piecewise QR models suggest that exposures of several VOCs decreased little or any during the 1990's, followed by more rapid decreases from 1999 to 2004, questions are raised concerning the reliability of VOC data in several of the NHANES cohorts and its applicability as an exposure indicator, as demonstrated by the modest correlation between VOC levels in blood and personal air

  19. Trends in selected biological risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the Danish MONICA population, 1982-1992

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerdes, L U; Brønnum-Hansen, H; Madsen, Mette

    2000-01-01

    Data from 6695 men and women of ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years, examined in the Danish WHO MONICA surveys in 1982-84, in 1986-87, and in 1991-92, were analyzed to estimate secular trends in body height and weight, blood pressure, and serum total, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride. Body...... height increased 0.1% per year, and body mass index increased 0.4% per year in women. Diastolic blood pressure increased 0.4% per year in women and 0.6% per year in 60-year-old men. HDL cholesterol declined 0.4% per year. Body mass indices in men, diastolic blood pressures in men age......, systolic blood pressures, total- and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride did not change. The levels of biological risk factors in the Danish WHO MONICA study population did not show trends during the 1980s that help explain the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population....

  20. Secular trends of growth and pubertal maturation of school children in Southern Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaruratanasirikul, Somchit; Sriplung, Hutcha

    2015-01-01

    In Thailand, studies of growth date back to 1975, but there have been no studies examining any trends in increasing/decreasing growth. To determine if there have been any secular trends of increasing/decreasing growth and/or ages at puberty in Thai children. In 2012, a cross-sectional study of growth was conducted in 3460 children. The median heights and weights and the ages of pubertal maturation were compared with previous studies. Correlations between the secular trends and the health statistics indicators were calculated. From 1975-2012, the median final height of boys and girls had increased by 1.32 and 0.86 cm/decade and weight by 2.49 and 1.76 kg/decade, respectively. In girls, the age at thelarche and menarche had declined by 0.39 and 0.12 years/decade, respectively. In boys, the age at testicular enlargement Tanner II had declined by 0.15 years/decade. Increased physical growth was positively correlated to life expectancy, per capita income and prevalence of overweight/obesity was negatively correlated to prevalence of malnutrition and under-five mortality rate. The positive secular trend towards an increase in growth and a decline in the age at onset of puberty of Thai children is correlated with improvements in overall living conditions in Thailand.

  1. The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, M.R.; Gloor, M.; Sarmiento, J.L.; Gasser, T.

    2014-01-01

    Through 1959-2012, an airborne fraction (AF) of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO 2 sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation, and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace. An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO 2 sink rate (k S ), the combined land-ocean CO 2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO 2 above pre industrial levels. Here we show from observations that k S declined over 1959-2012 by a factor of about 1/3, implying that CO 2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO 2 . Using a carbon-climate model, we attribute the decline in k S to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO 2 emissions growth (35% of the trend), volcanic eruptions (25 %), sink responses to climate change (20 %), and nonlinear responses to increasing CO 2 , mainly oceanic (20 %). The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 . Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic, nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon cycle. Although continuing future decreases in k S will occur under all plausible CO 2 emission scenarios, the rate of decline varies between scenarios in non intuitive ways because extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms cause k S to decline more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms cause k S to decline more strongly under high-emission, low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon-climate system is perturbed further from a near-linear regime. (authors)

  2. U.S. energy research and development: Declining investment, increasing need, and the feasibility of expansion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemet, Gregory F.; Kammen, Daniel M.

    2007-01-01

    Investment in energy research and development in the U.S. is declining despite calls for an enhancement of the nation's capacity for innovation to address environmental, geopolitical, and macroeconomic concerns. We examine investments in research and development in the energy sector, and observe broad-based declines in funding since the mid-1990s. The large reductions in investment by the private sector should be a particular area of concern for policy makers. Multiple measures of patenting activity reveal widespread declines in innovative activity that are correlated with research and development (R and D) investment-notably in the environmentally significant wind and solar areas. Trends in venture capital investment and fuel cell innovation are two promising cases that run counter to the overall trends in the sector. We draw on prior work on the optimal level of energy R and D to identify a range of values which would be adequate to address energy-related concerns. Comparing simple scenarios based on this range to past public R and D programs and industry investment data indicates that a five to ten-fold increase in energy R and D investment is both warranted and feasible

  3. Hawaiian forest bird trends: using log-linear models to assess long-term trends is supported by model diagnostics and assumptions (reply to Freed and Cann 2013)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camp, Richard J.; Pratt, Thane K.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Woodworth, Bethany L.; Jeffrey, John J.

    2014-01-01

    Freed and Cann (2013) criticized our use of linear models to assess trends in the status of Hawaiian forest birds through time (Camp et al. 2009a, 2009b, 2010) by questioning our sampling scheme, whether we met model assumptions, and whether we ignored short-term changes in the population time series. In the present paper, we address these concerns and reiterate that our results do not support the position of Freed and Cann (2013) that the forest birds in the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) are declining, or that the federally listed endangered birds are showing signs of imminent collapse. On the contrary, our data indicate that the 21-year long-term trends for native birds in Hakalau Forest NWR are stable to increasing, especially in areas that have received active management.

  4. Adiposity predicts cognitive decline in older persons with diabetes: a 2-year follow-up.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Marie Abbatecola

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The mechanisms related to cognitive impairment in older persons with Type 2 diabetes (DM remains unclear. We tested if adiposity parameters and body fat distribution could predict cognitive decline in older persons with DM vs. normal glucose tolerance (NGT. METHODOLOGY: 693 older persons with no dementia were enrolled: 253 with DM in good metabolic control; 440 with NGT (age range:65-85 years. Longitudinal study comparing DM and NGT individuals according to the association of baseline adiposity parameters (body mass index (BMI, waist-hip-ratio (WHR, waist circumference (WC and total body fat mass to cognitive change (Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE, a composite score of executive and attention functioning (CCS over time. FINDINGS: At baseline, in DM participants, MMSE correlated with WHR (beta = -0.240; p = 0.043, WC (beta = -0.264; p = 0.041 while CCS correlated with WHR (beta = -0.238; p = 0.041, WC (beta = -0.326; p = 0.013 after adjusting for confounders. In NGT subjects, no significant correlations were found among any adiposity parameters and MMSE, while CCS was associated with WHR (beta = -0.194; p = 0.036 and WC (beta = -0.210; p = 0.024. Participants with DM in the 3(rd tertile of total fat mass showed the greatest decline in cognitive performance compared to those in 1(st tertile (tests for trend: MMSE(p = 0.007, CCS(p = 0.003. Logistic regression models showed that 3(rd vs. 1(st tertile of total fat mass, WHR, and WC predicted an almost two-fold decline in cognitive function in DM subjects at 2(nd yr (OR 1.68, 95%IC 1.08-3.52. CONCLUSIONS: Total fat mass and central adiposity predict an increased risk for cognitive decline in older person with DM.

  5. Decline in new psychoactive substance use disorders following legislation targeting headshops: Evidence from national addiction treatment data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Bobby P; Lyons, Suzi; Cullen, Walter

    2017-09-01

    New psychoactive substances (NPS) have hedonic effects that may lead to dependence. Headshops selling NPS increased in number in Ireland from late 2009. Legislation was enacted in May and August of 2010 that caused their closure. It is unknown whether such events impact the rate of NPS use disorders. We conducted a population-based study using the Irish national database of episodes of addiction treatment between 2009 and 2012. We examined trends in the rate of NPS-related treatment episodes among young adults. Joinpoint trend analysis software was used to identify significant changes in trend. Of the 31 284 episodes of addiction treatment commenced by adults aged 18 to 34 years, 756 (2.4%) were NPS related. In 2012, the 12-month moving average rate had fallen 48% from its peak in 2010, from 9.0/100 000 to 4.7/100 000. Joinpoint analysis indicated that the rate of NPS related episodes increased by 218% (95% confidence interval 86 to 445, P = 0.001) every 4 months until the first third of 2010. From that point, the rate declined by 9.8% (95% confidence interval -14.1 to -5.4, P = 0.001) per 4-month period. There was no significant trend change in the rate of non-NPS related treatment episodes. Over the 2 years after the enactment of prohibition-styled legislation targeting NPS and headshops, the rate of NPS related addiction treatment episodes among young adults declined progressively and substantially. We found no coinciding trend change in the rate of episodes linked to other drug groups. [Smyth BP, Lyons S, Cullen W. Decline in new psychoactive substance use disorders following legislation targeting headshops: Evidence fromnational addiction treatment data. Drug Alcohol Rev 2017;00:000-000]. © 2017 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  6. Detection of the spatiotemporal trends of mercury in Lake Erie fish communities: a Bayesian approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azim, M Ekram; Kumarappah, Ananthavalli; Bhavsar, Satyendra P; Backus, Sean M; Arhonditsis, George

    2011-03-15

    The temporal trends of total mercury (THg) in four fish species in Lake Erie were evaluated based on 35 years of fish contaminant data. Our Bayesian statistical approach consists of three steps aiming to address different questions. First, we used the exponential and mixed-order decay models to assess the declining rates in four intensively sampled fish species, i.e., walleye (Stizostedion vitreum), yellow perch (Perca flavescens), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieui), and white bass (Morone chrysops). Because the two models postulate monotonic decrease of the THg levels, we included first- and second-order random walk terms in our statistical formulations to accommodate nonmonotonic patterns in the data time series. Our analysis identified a recent increase in the THg concentrations, particularly after the mid-1990s. In the second step, we used double exponential models to quantify the relative magnitude of the THg trends depending on the type of data used (skinless-boneless fillet versus whole fish data) and the fish species examined. The observed THg concentrations were significantly higher in skinless boneless fillet than in whole fish portions, while the whole fish portions of walleye exhibited faster decline rates and slower rates of increase relative to the skinless boneless fillet data. Our analysis also shows lower decline rates and higher rates of increase in walleye relative to the other three fish species examined. The food web structural shifts induced by the invasive species (dreissenid mussels and round goby) may be associated with the recent THg trends in Lake Erie fish.

  7. Trends in Self-Employment Among White and Black Men: 1910-1990

    OpenAIRE

    Robert W. Fairlie; Bruce D. Meyer

    1999-01-01

    We examine trends in self-employment among white and black men from 1910 to 1990 using Census and CPS microdata. Self-employment rates fell over most of the century and then started to rise after 1970. For white men, we find that the decline was due to declining rates within industries, but was counterbalanced somewhat by a shift in employment towards high self-employment industries. Recently, the increase in self-employment was caused by an end to the within industry decline and the continui...

  8. Temporal trends in physical activity: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knuth, Alan G; Hallal, Pedro C

    2009-09-01

    In spite of all accumulated scientific knowledge on the benefits of physical activity (PA) for health, high rates of sedentary lifestyle are still observed worldwide. The aim of this study was to systematically review articles on temporal trends of PA and fitness, with emphasis on differences between children/ adolescents and adults. An electronic search at the Medline/PubMed database was carried out using the following combination of keywords: temporal trends or trends or surveillance or monitoring and PA or exercise or physical fitness or motor activity or sedentary or fitness. By using this strategy, 23,088 manuscripts were detected. After examination, 41 articles fulfilled all inclusion criteria, and were, therefore, included. The data currently available in the literature for adults shows that leisure-time activity levels tend to be increasing over time, while occupational-related PA is decreasing over time. Youth PA seems to be decreasing over time, including a lower level of activity in physical education classes. As a consequence, fitness levels are also declining. PA surveillance must be strongly encouraged in all settings and age groups. Special attention must be paid to low and middle-income countries, where PA surveillance is virtually inexistent.

  9. Trends in Canadian Sociology Master's Theses in Relation to Research Ethics Review, 1995-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Hoonaard, Will C

    2006-12-01

    THIS PAPER EXAMINES TRENDS IN CANADIAN Master's theses in sociology, 1995-2004, in the course the implementation of Canada's national research-ethics guidelines (2001), using data available from ProQuest Dissertations. While there has been no decline in the number of theses completed during this period, nearly 1/4 fewer theses now involve research participants. The proportion of theses using quantitative methods shows decline; theses using qualitative methods, however, have increased significantly over time. A closer inspection qualitative theses shows an impressive increase in the proportion of theses using interviews, while the decrease in theses using field work is even more dramatic, from 40% to 5%. The decrease of theses involving field work is particularly alarming for a significant segment of sociology that must derive its material mainly from field work. Data drawn from a larger study supplement the findings in this article.

  10. Trends in US movie tobacco portrayal since 1950: a historical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Patrick E; Romer, Dan

    2010-06-01

    Portrayal of tobacco use in films has been causally linked to youth smoking initiation. However, findings regarding trends in portrayal in US films since 1950 are inconsistent, potentially due to differences in sampling densities, intercoder reliabilities and time periods covered. The present study was designed to overcome these inconsistencies with a common sampling frame and methodology. A half sample of the 30 top-grossing US films per year from 1950 to 2006 (N=855) was coded in 5-min segments for total tobacco-related content and main character tobacco use. Film tobacco trends were identified using linear regression and compared to national per capita cigarette consumption and historically significant tobacco control events. Tobacco content declined considerably since 1950. Total tobacco-related content peaked around 1961, while the decline in portrayal of main character use was already underway in 1950. Cigarette consumption peaked around 1966 with a trend that closely paralleled total tobacco content and that coincided with major tobacco control events. This study, which had high reliability, dense sampling and covered a long time period, indicates that tobacco content has declined in top-ranked US movies since 1950 with a trend in total tobacco content that closely paralleled the drop in per capita cigarette consumption and the increase in significant tobacco control efforts. Despite the inability to draw causal conclusions, tobacco portrayal in films may serve as barometer of societal support for the habit and thus efforts should continue to limit exposure to such content.

  11. Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rode, Karyn D.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

    2010-01-01

    Rates of reproduction and survival are dependent upon adequate body size and condition of individuals. Declines in size and condition have provided early indicators of population decline in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) near the southern extreme of their range. We tested whether patterns in body size, condition, and cub recruitment of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska were related to the availability of preferred sea ice habitats and whether these measures and habitat availability exhibited trends over time, between 1982 and 2006. The mean skull size and body length of all polar bears over three years of age declined over time, corresponding with long‐term declines in the spatial and temporal availability of sea ice habitat. Body size of young, growing bears declined over time and was smaller after years when sea ice availability was reduced. Reduced litter mass and numbers of yearlings per female following years with lower availability of optimal sea ice habitat, suggest reduced reproductive output and juvenile survival. These results, based on analysis of a long‐term data set, suggest that declining sea ice is associated with nutritional limitations that reduced body size and reproduction in this population.

  12. Distant drivers or local signals: where do mercury trends in western Arctic belugas originate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loseto, L L; Stern, G A; Macdonald, R W

    2015-03-15

    Temporal trends of contaminants are monitored in Arctic higher trophic level species to inform us on the fate, transport and risk of contaminants as well as advise on global emissions. However, monitoring mercury (Hg) trends in species such as belugas challenge us, as their tissue concentrations reflect complex interactions among Hg deposition and methylation, whale physiology, dietary exposure and foraging patterns. The Beaufort Sea beluga population showed significant increases in Hg during the 1990 s; since that time an additional 10 years of data have been collected. During this time of data collection, changes in the Arctic have affected many processes that underlie the Hg cycle. Here, we examine Hg in beluga tissues and investigate factors that could contribute to the observed trends after removing the effect of age and size on Hg concentrations and dietary factors. Finally, we examine available indicators of climate variability (Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and sea-ice minimum (SIM) concentration) to evaluate their potential to explain beluga Hg trends. Results reveal a decline in Hg concentrations from 2002 to 2012 in the liver of older whales and the muscle of large whales. The temporal increases in Hg in the 1990 s followed by recent declines do not follow trends in Hg emission, and are not easily explained by diet markers highlighting the complexity of feeding, food web dynamics and Hg uptake. Among the regional-scale climate variables the PDO exhibited the most significant relationship with beluga Hg at an eight year lag time. This distant signal points us to consider beluga winter feeding areas. Given that changes in climate will impact ecosystems; it is plausible that these climate variables are important in explaining beluga Hg trends. Such relationships require further investigation of the multiple connections between climate variables and beluga Hg. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Global Trend Analysis of Multi-decade Soil Temperature Records Show Soils Resistant to Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, S. D.; Jennings, K.

    2017-12-01

    Soil temperature is an important determinant of many subterranean ecological processes including plant growth, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration. Soils are expected to warm in response to increasing global surface temperatures; however, despite the importance of soil temperature to ecosystem processes, less attention has been given to examining changes in soil temperature over time. We collected long-term (> 20 years) soil temperature records from approximately 50 sites globally, many with multiple depths (5 - 100 cm), and examined temperature trends over the last few decades. For each site and depth we calculated annual summer means and conducted non-parametric Mann Kendall trend and Sen slope analysis to assess changes in summer soil temperature over the length of each time series. The mean summer soil temperature trend across all sites and depths was not significantly different than zero (mean = 0.004 °C year-1 ± 0.033 SD), suggesting that soils have not warmed over the observation period. Of the subset of sites that exhibit significant increases in temperature over time, site location, depth of measurement, time series length, and neither start nor end date seem to be related to trend strength. These results provide evidence that the thermal regime of soils may have a stronger buffering capacity than expected, having important implications for the global carbon cycle and feedbacks to climate change.

  14. Could there have been substantial declines in sexual risk behavior across sub-Saharan Africa in the mid-1990s?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne F. Awad

    2014-09-01

    Conclusion: The hypothesis that HIV prevalence declines in SSA have been driven by declines in sexual risk behavior is self-consistent and provides a convincing narrative for an evolving HIV epidemiology in this region. The hypothesized declines must have been remarkable in their intensity, rapidity, and synchronicity to explain the temporal trends in HIV prevalence. These findings provide contextual support for the hypothesis that changes in sexual behavior that materialized in the 1990s are a dominant driver of the recent decreases in HIV prevalence.

  15. Contribution of urban expansion and a changing climate to decline of a butterfly fauna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casner, Kayce L; Forister, Matthew L; O'Brien, Joshua M; Thorne, James; Waetjen, David; Shapiro, Arthur M

    2014-06-01

    Butterfly populations are naturally patchy and undergo extinctions and recolonizations. Analyses based on more than 2 decades of data on California's Central Valley butterfly fauna show a net loss in species richness through time. We analyzed 22 years of phenological and faunistic data for butterflies to investigate patterns of species richness over time. We then used 18-22 years of data on changes in regional land use and 37 years of seasonal climate data to develop an explanatory model. The model related the effects of changes in land-use patterns, from working landscapes (farm and ranchland) to urban and suburban landscapes, and of a changing climate on butterfly species richness. Additionally, we investigated local trends in land use and climate. A decline in the area of farmland and ranchland, an increase in minimum temperatures during the summer and maximum temperatures in the fall negatively affected net species richness, whereas increased minimum temperatures in the spring and greater precipitation in the previous summer positively affected species richness. According to the model, there was a threshold between 30% and 40% working-landscape area below which further loss of working-landscape area had a proportionally greater effect on butterfly richness. Some of the isolated effects of a warming climate acted in opposition to affect butterfly richness. Three of the 4 climate variables that most affected richness showed systematic trends (spring and summer mean minimum and fall mean maximum temperatures). Higher spring minimum temperatures were associated with greater species richness, whereas higher summer temperatures in the previous year and lower rainfall were linked to lower richness. Patterns of land use contributed to declines in species richness (although the pattern was not linear), but the net effect of a changing climate on butterfly richness was more difficult to discern. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Trends in Sexual Orientation Missing Data Over a Decade of the California Health Interview Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana, Joseph; Grant, David; Cochran, Susan D.; Lee, Annie C.; Ponce, Ninez A.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives. We explored changes in sexual orientation question item completion in a large statewide health survey. Methods. We used 2003 to 2011 California Health Interview Survey data to investigate sexual orientation item nonresponse and sexual minority self-identification trends in a cross-sectional sample representing the noninstitutionalized California household population aged 18 to 70 years (n = 182 812 adults). Results. Asians, Hispanics, limited-English-proficient respondents, and those interviewed in non-English languages showed the greatest declines in sexual orientation item nonresponse. Asian women, regardless of English-proficiency status, had the highest odds of item nonresponse. Spanish interviews produced more nonresponse than English interviews and Asian-language interviews produced less nonresponse when we controlled for demographic factors and survey cycle. Sexual minority self-identification increased in concert with the item nonresponse decline. Conclusions. Sexual orientation nonresponse declines and the increase in sexual minority identification suggest greater acceptability of sexual orientation assessment in surveys. Item nonresponse rate convergence among races/ethnicities, language proficiency groups, and interview languages shows that sexual orientation can be measured in surveys of diverse populations. PMID:25790399

  17. Epidemiologic contributions to recent cancer trends among HIV-infected people in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robbins, Hilary A; Shiels, Meredith S; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

    2014-03-27

    HIV-infected people have elevated risk for some cancers. Changing incidence of these cancers over time may reflect changes in three factors: HIV population demographic structure (e.g. age distribution), general population (background) cancer rates, and HIV-associated relative risks. We assessed the contributions of these factors to time trends for 10 cancers during 1996-2010. Population-based registry linkage study. We applied Poisson models to data from the U.S. HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates of AIDS-defining cancers [ADCs: Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer] and seven non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs). We evaluated HIV-infected cancer trends with and without adjustment for demographics, trends in background rates, and trends in standardized incidence ratios (SIRs, to capture relative risk). Cancer rates among HIV-infected people rose over time for anal (APC 3.8%), liver (8.5%), and prostate (9.8%) cancers, but declined for Kaposi sarcoma (1996-2000: -29.3%; 2000-2010: -7.8%), NHL (1996-2003: -15.7%; 2003-2010: -5.5%), cervical cancer (-11.1%), Hodgkin lymphoma (-4.0%), and lung cancer (-2.8%). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence did not change over time. Based on comparison to adjusted models, changing demographics contributed to trends for Kaposi sarcoma and breast, colorectal, liver, lung, and prostate cancers (all P cancers. SIRs declined for ADCs, Hodgkin lymphoma (APC -3.2%), and lung cancer (-4.4%). Demographic shifts influenced several cancer trends among HIV-infected individuals. Falling relative risks largely explained ADC declines, while background incidence contributed to some NADC trends.

  18. New Tobacco Trends (A Cup of Health with CDC)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Cigarette smoking in the United States has been on a steady decline over the past 50 years. However, new tobacco products are becoming increasingly popular. In this podcast, Dr. Linda Neff discusses the dangerous new trends in tobacco use.

  19. Trends in genetic patent applications: the commercialization of academic intellectual property.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kers, Jannigje G; Van Burg, Elco; Stoop, Tom; Cornel, Martina C

    2014-10-01

    We studied trends in genetic patent applications in order to identify the trends in the commercialization of research findings in genetics. To define genetic patent applications, the European version (ECLA) of the International Patent Classification (IPC) codes was used. Genetic patent applications data from the PATSTAT database from 1990 until 2009 were analyzed for time trends and regional distribution. Overall, the number of patent applications has been growing. In 2009, 152 000 patent applications were submitted under the Patent Cooperation Treaty (PCT) and within the EP (European Patent) system of the European Patent Office (EPO). The number of genetic patent applications increased until a peak was reached in the year 2000, with >8000 applications, after which it declined by almost 50%. Continents show different patterns over time, with the global peak in 2000 mainly explained by the USA and Europe, while Asia shows a stable number of >1000 per year. Nine countries together account for 98.9% of the total number of genetic patent applications. In The Netherlands, 26.7% of the genetic patent applications originate from public research institutions. After the year 2000, the number of genetic patent applications dropped significantly. Academic leadership and policy as well as patent regulations seem to have an important role in the trend differences. The ongoing investment in genetic research in the past decade is not reflected by an increase of patent applications.

  20. Decline of semen quality among Chinese sperm bank donors within 7 years (2008-2014

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Semen from 5210 sperm bank donors was analyzed and trends in semen quality were evaluated at Shandong Human Sperm Bank between 2008 and 2014. After 2-7 days of abstinence, semen samples were collected. Measurements of semen volume, sperm concentration, sperm forward motility, and total sperm count were performed. There were significant declining trends in semen volume, sperm concentration, sperm forward motility, and total sperm count. Our results indicate that the quality of semen in this cohort of sperm donors had decreased during the study period.

  1. Increased planned delivery contributes to declining rates of pregnancy hypertension in Australia: a population-based record linkage study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Christine L; Algert, Charles S; Morris, Jonathan M; Ford, Jane B

    2015-10-05

    Since the 1990s, pregnancy hypertension rates have declined in some countries, but not all. Increasing rates of early planned delivery (before the due date) have been hypothesised as the reason for the decline. The aim of this study was to explore whether early planned delivery can partly explain the declining pregnancy hypertension rates in Australia. Population-based record linkage study utilising linked birth and hospital records. A cohort of 1,076,122 deliveries in New South Wales, Australia, 2001-2012. Pregnancy hypertension (including gestational hypertension, pre-eclampsia and eclampsia) was the main outcome; pre-eclampsia was a secondary outcome. From 2001 to 2012, pregnancy hypertension rates declined by 22%, from 9.9% to 7.7%, and pre-eclampsia by 27%, from 3.3% to 2.4% (trend prate was predicted to increase to 10.5%. Examination of annual gestational age distributions showed that pregnancy hypertension rates actually declined from 38 weeks gestation and were steepest from 41 weeks; at least 36% of the decrease could be attributed to planned deliveries. The risk factors for pregnancy hypertension were also risk factors for planned delivery. It appears that an unanticipated consequence of increasing early planned deliveries is a decline in the incidence of pregnancy hypertension. Women with risk factors for hypertension were relatively more likely to be selected for early delivery. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  2. Neighbourhood greenspace is associated with a slower decline in physical activity in older adults: A prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alice M. Dalton

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Maintaining physical activity in later life is important for maintaining health and function. Activity outdoors, such as walking, jogging and cycling, may provide an accessible, sociable and practical solution, but maintaining outdoor mobility may be a challenge in later life. Providing green environments which are supportive of physical activity may facilitate this, yet research into how greenspace could be best used is inconclusive. This study evaluates the role of greenspace in protecting against decline in physical activity over time in older adults.Data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk, UK, cohort 1993–2009 (N=15,672 was used. Linear regression modelling was used to examine the association between exposure to greenspace in the home neighbourhood and change in overall, recreational and outdoor physical activity measured in terms of metabolic equivalent cost (MET in hours/week. Mediation analysis was conducted to assess if dog walking explained the relationship between greenspace and physical activity change. Models were adjusted for known and hypothesised confounders.People living in greener neighbourhoods experienced less of a decline in physical activity than those living in less green areas. Comparing change for those living in the greenest versus least green quartiles, participants showed a difference in overall physical activity of 4.21 MET hours/week (trend P=0.001, adjusted for baseline physical activity, age, sex, BMI, social class and marital status. This difference was 4.03 MET hours/week for recreational physical activity (trend P<0.001 and 1.28 MET hours/week for outdoor physical activity (trend P=0.007. Dog walking partially mediated the association between greenspace and physical activity change, by 22.6% for overall, 28.1% for recreational and 50.0% for outdoor physical activity (all P<0.001.Greenspace in the home neighbourhood may be protective against decline in physical activity among older

  3. Recent trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garau, M.; Alonso, R.; Musetti, C.; Barrios, E.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To analyze trends in cancer mortality in Uruguay in the period 1989-2008. Methodology: The National Cancer Registry (NCR) collects information from cancer mortality from the death certificates: 147 631 deaths were identified in the period from cancer, which was recorded topography, sex and age. They were calculated for each year mortality rates adjusted for age (TMAE) using as standard the world population. Trends were assessed using the method and calculated the joinpoint Estimated Annual Percent Change (ESPP). Results: The TMAE presents downward trend in both sexes (ESPP = significant -0.60 in men and -0.49 In women). In the period studied, mortality presented decreasing trend when it comes to cancer breast cancer in women (ESPP -0.79, significant), and increased for prostate cancer (ESPP = 0.70) and kidney (ESPP = 1.82 and 1.71 in men and women respectively). As regards the digestive system decreased mortality observed for esophageal cancer (ESPP in = -1.93 men and women = -1.78) and stomach (ESPP = -2.22 men and women -2.24 ). Mortality for cancer of colorectum is stable in men (ESPP = 0.35 No significant (NS)) and shows a decline slight but steady in women (ESPP -0.5). As for cancers that show strong association with smoking, decreased mortality observed lung and laryngeal cancer in men (ESPP = -1.11 and -2.05 respectively), confirming the trend found between 1990 and 2001; in women there is increased mortality from lung cancer (ESPP = 2.76) that is not accompanied by increased mortality from laryngeal cancer (-0.1 ESPP = NS). Mortality from cancers oral cavity and pharynx is stable, but in women a significant increase (ESPP = 1.84) is observed when the oral cavity is analyzed in isolation (lip, tongue, gums, palate). As cervical cancer, mortality trends in 20 years is to increase (ESPP = 1.14), however, if consider only the past decade, mortality appears stabilized (ESPP = 0.57 NS). Conclusions: The overall trend of cancer mortality (all sites

  4. Declination Calculator

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Declination is calculated using the current International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. Declination is calculated using the current World Magnetic Model...

  5. Growth decline assessment in Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra Arnold. forest by using 3-PG model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael M. Navarro-Cerrillo

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Aim of the study: We assessed the ability of the 3-PG process-based model to accurately predict growth of Pinus sylvestris and P. nigra plantations across a range of sites, showing declining growth trends, in southern Spain. Area of study: The study area is located in “Sierra de Los Filabres” (Almería. Material and methods: The model was modified in fifteen parameters to predict diameter (DBH, cm, basal area increment (BAI, cm2 yr-1 and leaf area index (LAI, m2 m-2 in healthy trees and trees showing declining growth. We assumed that a set of specific physiological parameters (stem partitioning ratio-pFS20, maximum litterfall rate-γFx, maximum canopy conductance-gCx, specific leaf area for mature aged stands-σ1, age at which specific leaf area = ½ (σ0 + σ1, age at full canopy cover-tc, and canopy boundary layer conductance-gB included in 3-PG would be suitable for predicting growth decline related to climate conditions. The calibrated model was evaluated using dendrochronological and LAI data obtained from plots. Main results: Observed and simulated DBH showed a high correlation (R2 > 0.99 between modelled and measured values for both species. In contrast, modelled and observed BAI showed lower correlation (R2 < 0.68. Sensitivity analysis on 3-PG outputs showed that the foliage parameters - maximum litterfall rate, maximum canopy conductance, specific leaf area for mature aged stands, age at which specific leaf area, and age at full canopy cover - were important for DBH and BAI predictions under drought stress. Research highlights: Our overall results indicated that the 3-PG model could predict growth response of pine plantations to climatic stress with desirable accuracy in southern Spain by using readily available soil and climatic data with physiological parameters derived from experiments. Keywords: Hybrid process model; forest management models; growth prediction; Pinus spp, Parameterization; forest decline.

  6. Dramatic Declines of Montane Frogs in a Central African Biodiversity Hotspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschfeld, Mareike; Blackburn, David C.; Doherty-Bone, Thomas M.; Gonwouo, LeGrand Nono; Ghose, Sonia; Rödel, Mark-Oliver

    2016-01-01

    Amphibian populations are vanishing worldwide. Declines and extinctions of many populations have been attributed to chytridiomycosis, a disease induced by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). In Africa, however, changes in amphibian assemblages were typically attributed to habitat change. We conducted a retrospective study utilizing field surveys from 2004–2012 of the anuran faunas on two mountains in western Cameroon, a hotspot of African amphibian diversity. The number of species detected was negatively influenced by year, habitat degradation, and elevation, and we detected a decline of certain species. Because another study in this region revealed an emergence of Bd in 2008, we screened additional recent field-collected samples and also pre-decline preserved museum specimens for the presence of Bd supporting emergence before 2008. When comparing the years before and after Bd detection, we found significantly diminished frog species richness and abundance on both mountains after Bd emergence. Our analyses suggest that this may be the first disease-driven community-level decline in anuran biodiversity in Central Africa. The disappearance of several species known to tolerate habitat degradation, and a trend of stronger declines at higher elevations, are consistent with Bd-induced declines in other regions. Not all species decreased; populations of some species remained constant, and others increased after the emergence of Bd. This variation might be explained by species-specific differences in infection probability. Increased habitat protection and Bd-mitigation strategies are needed for sustaining diverse amphibian communities such as those on Mt. Manengouba, which contains nearly half of Cameroon’s frog diversity. PMID:27149624

  7. Dramatic Declines of Montane Frogs in a Central African Biodiversity Hotspot.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mareike Hirschfeld

    Full Text Available Amphibian populations are vanishing worldwide. Declines and extinctions of many populations have been attributed to chytridiomycosis, a disease induced by the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd. In Africa, however, changes in amphibian assemblages were typically attributed to habitat change. We conducted a retrospective study utilizing field surveys from 2004-2012 of the anuran faunas on two mountains in western Cameroon, a hotspot of African amphibian diversity. The number of species detected was negatively influenced by year, habitat degradation, and elevation, and we detected a decline of certain species. Because another study in this region revealed an emergence of Bd in 2008, we screened additional recent field-collected samples and also pre-decline preserved museum specimens for the presence of Bd supporting emergence before 2008. When comparing the years before and after Bd detection, we found significantly diminished frog species richness and abundance on both mountains after Bd emergence. Our analyses suggest that this may be the first disease-driven community-level decline in anuran biodiversity in Central Africa. The disappearance of several species known to tolerate habitat degradation, and a trend of stronger declines at higher elevations, are consistent with Bd-induced declines in other regions. Not all species decreased; populations of some species remained constant, and others increased after the emergence of Bd. This variation might be explained by species-specific differences in infection probability. Increased habitat protection and Bd-mitigation strategies are needed for sustaining diverse amphibian communities such as those on Mt. Manengouba, which contains nearly half of Cameroon's frog diversity.

  8. Local macroeconomic trends and hospital admissions for child abuse, 2000-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Joanne N; Medina, Sheyla P; Feudtner, Chris; Luan, Xianqun; Localio, Russell; Fieldston, Evan S; Rubin, David M

    2012-08-01

    To examine the relationship between local macroeconomic indicators and physical abuse admission rates to pediatric hospitals over time. Retrospective study of children admitted to 38 hospitals in the Pediatric Hospital Information System database. Hospital data were linked to unemployment, mortgage delinquency, and foreclosure data for the associated metropolitan statistical areas. Primary outcomes were admission rates for (1) physical abuse in children <6 years old, (2) non-birth, non-motor vehicle crash-related traumatic brain injury (TBI) in infants <1 year old (which carry high risk for abuse), and (3) all-cause injuries. Poisson fixed-effects regression estimated trends in admission rates and associations between those rates and trends in unemployment, mortgage delinquency, and foreclosure. Between 2000 and 2009, rates of physical abuse and high-risk TBI admissions increased by 0.79% and 3.1% per year, respectively (P ≤ .02), whereas all-cause injury rates declined by 0.80% per year (P < .001). Abuse and high-risk TBI admission rates were associated with the current mortgage delinquency rate and with the change in delinquency and foreclosure rates from the previous year (P ≤ .03). Neither abuse nor high-risk TBI rates were associated with the current unemployment rate. The all-cause injury rate was negatively associated with unemployment, delinquency, and foreclosure rates (P ≤ .007). Multicenter hospital data show an increase in pediatric admissions for physical abuse and high-risk TBI during a time of declining all-cause injury rate. Abuse and high-risk TBI admission rates increased in relationship to local mortgage delinquency and foreclosure trends.

  9. Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

    2013-06-01

    To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause

  11. Gender differences in age-related decline in regional cerebral glucose metabolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang, Seong Ae; Cho, Sang Soo; Yoon, Eun Jin; Park, Hyun Soo; Lee, Eun Ju; Kim, Yu Kyeong; Kim, Sang Sun [Seoul National Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    In this study, we investigated gender differences in age-related declines in regional cerebral glucose metabolism using FDG-PET in a large population sample with a broad age range. 230 healthy subjects (90 male; age: 34-80 y, 140 females; age: 33-82 y) participated. Correlation maps showing age related declines in glucose uptake were created separately for each gender in SPM2. Using population-based probabilistic volume of interests (VOIs), VOIs were defined for the regions showing significant decline with aging. Age related declines were separately assessed within each age range using analysis of covariate in SPSS 13.0. In the total population without gender effect, age-related negative correlation of glucose metabolism was found in the bilateral inferior frontal gyri, bilateral caudate, bilateral thalamus, left insula, left superior frontal gyrus, left uncus, right superior temporal gyrus, right medial frontal gyrus, right parahippocampal gyrus, right anterior cingulate gyrus (P < 0.001 corrected, extent threshold k = 100). 14 VOIs values of brain regions were calculated based on this negative correlation results. The rate of decline across all defined VOIs assessed in the age category of 'more than 70' referenced to the category of '30- 39years' were 7.85% in the entire sample; 7.62% in male and 8.09% in female. Detailed analyses of declines in each age range showed separable patterns of declines across gender. In males, greater decline was observed after the age 60 (20.45%) than the ages of 30 and 50(7.98%). Whereas in females, greater declines were found in age 60s (20.15%) compared to 50s, and in 40(14.84%) compared to 30s. Age-related decline in cerebral glucose metabolism was found in both genders. We further observed that males show a relatively constant pattern of decline across a life span; whereas, females show a pattern of steep changes aging to 60s and to 40s, which may be related to changes in sex hormone levels after menopause.

  12. On the decline of the Rusty Blackbird and the use of ornithological literature to document long-term population trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, R.; Droege, S.

    1999-01-01

    Unlike most North American blackbirds, Rusty Blackbirds (Euphagus carolensis) have shown steep population declines. Declines of approximately 90% are indicated for three recent decades from the Breeding Bird Survey, Christmas Bird Counts, and Quebec Checklist Program. Analyses of abundance classifications in bird distribution books and annotated checklists reveal an overlooked but long-term decline dating back to at least the early part of this century. Rusty Blackbirds were described as very common to abundant in 5656 of the pre-192O published accounts, 19% of the 1921-1950 accounts, and only 7% of the post-1950 accounts. Rusty Blackbirds were described as uncommon in none of the pre-1950 accounts, 18% of the 1951-1980 accounts, and 43% of the post-1980 accounts. A similar pattern was found for analyses based on local checklists. Destruction of wooded wetlands on wintering grounds, acid precipitation, and the conversion of boreal forest wetlands could have contributed to these declines. Systematic analysis of regional guides and checklists provides a valuable tool for examining large-scale and long-term population changes in birds.

  13. Secular trends in Cherokee cranial morphology: Eastern vs Western bands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutphin, Rebecca; Ross, Ann H; Jantz, Richard L

    2014-01-01

    The research objective was to examine if secular trends can be identified for cranial data commissioned by Boas in 1892, specifically for cranial breadth and cranial length of the Eastern and Western band Cherokee who experienced environmental hardships. Multiple regression analysis was used to test the degree of relationship between each of the cranial measures: cranial length, cranial breadth and cephalic index, along with predictor variables (year-of-birth, location, sex, admixture); the model revealed a significant difference for all craniometric variables. Additional regression analysis was performed with smoothing Loess plots to observe cranial length and cranial breadth change over time (year-of-birth) separately for Eastern and Western Cherokee band females and males born between 1783-1874. This revealed the Western and Eastern bands show a decrease in cranial length over time. Eastern band individuals maintain a relatively constant head breadth, while Western Band individuals show a sharp decline beginning around 1860. These findings support negative secular trend occurring for both Cherokee bands where the environment made a detrimental impact; this is especially marked with the Western Cherokee band.

  14. Racial and geographic variation in coronary heart disease mortality trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gillum Richard F

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Magnitudes, geographic and racial variation in trends in coronary heart disease (CHD mortality within the US require updating for health services and health disparities research. Therefore the aim of this study is to present data on these trends through 2007. Methods Data for CHD were analyzed using the US mortality files for 1999–2007 obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Age-adjusted annual death rates were computed for non-Hispanic African Americans (AA and European Americans (EA aged 35–84 years. The direct method was used to standardize rates by age, using the 2000 US standard population. Joinpoint regression models were used to evaluate trends, expressed as annual percent change (APC. Results For both AA men and women the magnitude in CHD mortality is higher compared to EA men and women, respectively. Between 1999 and 2007 the rate declined both in AA and in EA of both sexes in every geographic division; however, relative declines varied. For example, among men, relative average annual declines ranged from 3.2% to 4.7% in AA and from 4.4% to 5.5% in EA among geographic divisions. In women, rates declined more in later years of the decade and in women over 54 years. In 2007, age-adjusted death rate per 100,000 for CHD ranged from 93 in EA women in New England to 345 in AA men in the East North Central division. In EA, areas near the Ohio and lower Mississippi Rivers had above average rates. Disparities in trends by urbanization level were also found. For AA in the East North Central division, the APC was similar in large central metro (−4.2, large fringe metro (−4.3, medium metro urbanization strata (−4.4, and small metro (−3.9. APC was somewhat higher in the micropolitan/non-metro (−5.3, and especially the non-core/non-metro (−6.5. For EA in the East South Central division, the APC was higher in large central metro (−5.3, large fringe metro (−4.3 and medium metro

  15. Recent trends in secondary science education in New Jersey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, David

    This article compares the results of two surveys sent to New Jersey science supervisors in 1978 and 1982 regarding the status of secondary science education in their schools. It discusses trends that have developed during the four-year period and compares them to national trends revealed in recent studies. The comparison shows that New Jersey faces many of the same problems in science education found across the country. Instruction time in science, double laboratory periods, and the use of national curriculum studies have all declined. Respondents also reported a marked increase in the number of science teachers leaving the classroom for jobs in business and industry. The recruiting of qualified teachers was a difficult task and over 9% of the public schools reported having to use teachers with emergency certification in science to meet their staffing requirements. Difficulties in using staff effectively, in obtaining adequate financial support, and in providing professional development programs were the major concerns of science supervisors.Received: 12 April 1983

  16. Anthropogenic Contribution to the Southeast Pacific Precipitation Decline and Recent (2010-2015) Mega-Drought in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boisier, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Within the large uncertainties in the precipitation response to the anthropogenic climate forcing, the projections towards dryer conditions in the southeast Pacific sector and west bound of southern South America represent a particularly robust signature in climate model simulations. A rainfall decline of consistent direction but of larger amplitude than those simulated has been observed in Chile during the last decades, but the causes of this trend have never been formally attributed. With this purpose, we analyze local rain-gauge data and contrast them to a large ensemble both of fully-coupled and sea surface temperature-forced simulations. In concomitance with large-scale circulation changes, we show that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation explains about 50% of the rainfall trend observed since 1979 in central Chile. Our results also indicate that the remaining fraction of the observed drying is unlikely (p Chile since 2010, emerges as a realistic scenario for this region under the current socio-economic pathway.

  17. Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew; Liu, Yi; Evans, Jason; De Jeu, Richard; van Dijk, Albert

    2013-01-01

    Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

  18. Drivers of Global Vegetation Biomass Trends between 1988 and 2008

    KAUST Repository

    McCabe, Matthew

    2013-12-01

    Vegetation optical depth (VOD) is an indicator of the vegetation water content of both woody and leaf components in terrestrial biomass as derived from passive microwave observations. VOD is distinctly different from products derived from optical remote sensing: it is less prone to saturation in dense canopy; is sensitive to both photosynthetic and non-photosynthetic biomass; is less affected by atmospheric conditions; and is of coarser spatial resolution. Here, VOD retrievals from a series of sensors are blended to produce a time series from 1988 through to 2008, and a global analysis is undertaken to quantify and attribute global VOD trends over the same period. We conduct Mann-Kendall linear trend tests on annual average VOD to identify regions of significant change. Patterns for these regions were evaluated against independent datasets to diagnose the underlying cause of the observed trends. Results indicate that: (1) over grassland and shrubland, VOD patterns correspond strongly to temporal precipitation patterns; (2) over croplands, annual average VOD shows a general increase that corresponds to reported crop yield patterns and can be attributed to a combination of precipitation patterns and agricultural improvement; (3) over humid tropical forest, the spatial pattern of VOD decline agrees well with deforestation patterns identified in previous studies; and (4) over boreal forests, regional VOD declines can be attributed to a combination of fires and logging. We conclude that VOD can be used to estimate and interpret global changes in total above ground vegetation biomass. We expect that this new observationally based remote sensing data source will be of considerable interest to hydrological, agricultural, climate change and carbon cycle studies, and provide new insights into these and related process investigations.

  19. Trends in Canadian Respiratory Clinical Trials from 2001 to 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claire Elizabeth Tacon

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Clinical research bridges patients’ unmet medical need with innovative medicines, increases knowledge acquisition by clinicians, and creates solutions to improve the sustainability and quality of the Canadian health care system and economy. The Canadian Institutes of Health Research and the Canadian Lung Association have recently raised concerns over declining research activities within the Canadian respiratory community. While there are currently >3000 ongoing clinical trials in Canada, the number of trials investigating common respiratory diseases is unknown. The objective of the present study was to monitor the trends in industry- and non-industry-sponsored respiratory clinical trials in Canada from 2001 to 2011. Trialtrove 2012 (Citeline, an Informa UK business, a database containing summarized clinical trial information regarding pharmaceutical products, was searched using common chronic respiratory disease terms: “allergic rhinitis”, “asthma”, “chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD”, “cystic fibrosis”, “respiratory infections”, “pulmonary fibrosis” and “smoking cessation”. Over the past 10 years, the number of respiratory clinical trials conducted in Canada has increased (4.49 per year; P=0.004. From 2001 to 2011, the majority of trials were performed in asthma, followed closely by respiratory infections and COPD. Over the past decade, the number of trials investigating COPD and respiratory infections increased (P<0.05, while asthma trials showed a declining trend since 2007. Of the clinical trials performed during this 10-year period, the majority were in phase III, with a significant increase in the number of phase II trials (2.49 per year; P=0.008. However, certain trends observed are concerning and warrant further monitoring in the coming years.

  20. Trends of teenage pregnancy in Brazil, 2000-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaz, Raquel Ferreira; Monteiro, Denise Leite Maia; Rodrigues, Nádia Cristina Pinheiro

    2016-07-01

    To evaluate the frequency of teenage pregnancy in Brazil, from 2000 to 2011, in all five Brazilian macroregions and age groups (10-14 and 15-19 years), correlating it with the human development index (HDI). Descriptive epidemiological study, with cross-sectional design, performed by searching the database of the National Health System (Datasus), using information from the Information System (Sinasc). There was a decrease in the percentage of live births (LB) from teenage mothers (10-19 years) in Brazil (23.5 % in 2000 to 19.2 % in 2011). This reduction was observed in all Brazilian macroregions in the group of mothers aged 15 to 19 years. The number of LB increased by 5.0% among mothers aged 10-14 years (increase in the North and Northeast and decline in the other macroregions). The proportion of LB shows an inversely proportional trend to HDI score, with the Southeast having the highest HDI and the lowest proportion of LB to teenage mothers in the country. Brazil shows a decline in the percentage of LB to adolescent mothers, tending to be inversely related to HDI score. It is important to empower strategies to address the problem, so that teenage pregnancy is seen as a personal decision rather than the result of a lack of policies targeting adolescent health.

  1. Trends of mortality from Alzheimer's disease in the European Union, 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, H; Alvarez-Alvarez, I; Guillen-Grima, F; Al-Rahamneh, M J; Aguinaga-Ontoso, I

    2017-06-01

    In many countries, Alzheimer's disease (AD) has gradually become a common disease in elderly populations. The aim of this study was to analyse trends of mortality caused by AD in the 28 member countries in the European Union (EU) over the last two decades. We extracted data for AD deaths for the period 1994-2013 in the EU from the Eurostat and World Health Organization database. Age-standardized mortality rates per 100 000 were computed. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse the trends and compute the annual percent change in the EU as a whole and by country. Analyses by gender and by European regions were conducted. Mortality from AD has risen in the EU throughout the study period. Most of the countries showed upward trends, with the sharpest increases in Slovakia, Lithuania and Romania. We recorded statistically significant increases of 4.7% and 6.0% in mortality rates in men and women, respectively, in the whole EU. Several countries showed changing trends during the study period. According to the regional analysis, northern and eastern countries showed the steepest increases, whereas in the latter years mortality has declined in western countries. Our findings provide evidence that AD mortality has increased in the EU, especially in eastern and northern European countries and in the female population. Our results could be a reference for the development of primary prevention policies. © 2017 EAN.

  2. Could there have been substantial declines in sexual risk behavior across sub-Saharan Africa in the mid-1990s?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Susanne F; Abu-Raddad, Laith J

    2014-09-01

    HIV prevalence is decreasing in much of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), but the drivers of the decline are subject to much dispute. Using mathematical modeling as a tool for hypothesis generation, we demonstrate how the hypothesis that the drop in prevalence reflects declines in sexual risk behavior is self-consistent. We characterize these potential declines in terms of their scale, duration, and timing, and theorize on how small changes in sexual behavior at the individual-level could have driven large declines in HIV prevalence. A population-level deterministic compartmental model was constructed to describe the HIV epidemics in 24 countries in SSA with sufficient trend data. The model was parameterized by national HIV prevalence and HIV natural history and transmission data. The temporal evolution of sexual risk behavior was characterized using established tools and uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the results were conducted. Declines in the scale of sexual risk behavior between 31.8% (Botswana) and 89.3% (Liberia) can explain the declining HIV prevalence across countries. The average decline across countries was 68.9%. The transition in sexual risk behavior lasted between 2.7 (Botswana) and 16.6 (Gabon) years with an average of 8.2 years. The turning point year of the transition occurred between 1993 (Burundi) and 2001 (Namibia), but clustered around 1995 for most countries. The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses affirmed our model predictions. The hypothesis that HIV prevalence declines in SSA have been driven by declines in sexual risk behavior is self-consistent and provides a convincing narrative for an evolving HIV epidemiology in this region. The hypothesized declines must have been remarkable in their intensity, rapidity, and synchronicity to explain the temporal trends in HIV prevalence. These findings provide contextual support for the hypothesis that changes in sexual behavior that materialized in the 1990s are a dominant driver of the recent

  3. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rwegoshora Rwehumbiza T

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, malaria caused by Plasmodium falciparum has historically been a major contributor to morbidity and mortality. Recent reports indicate a pronounced decline in infection and disease rates which are commonly ascribed to large-scale bed net programmes and improved case management. However, the decline has also occurred in areas with limited or no intervention. The present study assessed temporal changes in Anopheline populations in two highly malaria-endemic communities of NE Tanzania during the period 1998-2009. Methods Between 1998 and 2001 (1st period and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period, mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and were used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. Results The average number of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009, the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. Conclusion A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite the absence of organized vector control. Part of the decline could be associated with changes in the pattern of monthly rainfall, but other factors may also contribute to the dramatic downward trend. A similar decline in malaria vector densities could contribute to the decrease in levels of malaria infection reported from many parts of SSA.

  4. Time trends in biological fertility in Western Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joffe, Michael; Holmes, Jane; Jensen, Tina Kold

    2013-01-01

    analyses demonstrated that this rise was visible as a male cohort effect for both TTP and contraceptive failure. On the other hand, the female birth cohort effect showed a slight fall in the first half of the study period for both TTP and contraceptive failure. As a period effect, fertility remained...... of which are calculated to be small. The declining female fertility accords with a falling dizygotic twinning rate during the same period.......We investigated trends in biological fertility in a comprehensive analysis of 5 major European data sets with data on time to pregnancy (TTP) and proportion of contraceptive failures. In particular, we distinguished a period effect from a birth cohort effect (lifelong tendency) in both sexes...

  5. Using Pollination Deficits to Infer Pollinator Declines: Can Theory Guide Us?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James D. Thomson

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available Authors examining pollinator declines frequently discuss pollination deficits, either as contemporary evidence that declines have occurred or as a possible negative consequence of future declines. Because pollination deficits can be measured in short-term studies, it would be useful if such studies could somehow replace painstaking documentation of insect population trends. I examine the legitimacy of this type of substitution with reference to evolutionary theory and natural plant populations. Operationally, pollination deficits are detected through pollen supplementation experiments. Although simple, these experiments are subject to subtleties of interpretation because of biases and nonlinear responses, which I discuss. Although it has been found that, in 62% of the natural populations studied, fruit or seed sets are at least sometimes limited by insufficient pollen, other research suggests that intact natural systems ought to arrive at an evolutionary equilibrium in which reproduction is limited equally by pollination and by maternal resources. Therefore, chronic severe pollination deficits may indicate that the pollinator service of a plant population has declined from some higher level in the past. However, there is no evidence of widespread declines, and, because of stochastic factors in nature, occasional shortfalls of pollination should be expected even at equilibrium. Although the effects of pollination deficits on plant population dynamics have been little studied, moderate declines in seed production may have relatively little effect on population growth rates because resources not expended on fruits and seeds may be reallocated to vegetative persistence or spread. It is therefore premature to conclude that pollinator declines are having strong effects on natural plant populations, but this mostly reflects a lack of data and is no cause for complacency. Theory must be supplemented by case studies; I give one example and

  6. Were the Victorians cleverer than us? The decline in general intelligence estimated from a meta-analysis of the slowing of simple reaction time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Woodley, M.A.; te Nijenhuis, J.; Murphy, R.

    2013-01-01

    The Victorian era was marked by an explosion of innovation and genius, per capita rates of which appear to have declined subsequently. The presence of dysgenic fertility for IQ amongst Western nations, starting in the 19th century, suggests that these trends might be related to declining IQ. This is

  7. Trends in Mortality from Cerebrovascular and Hypertensive Diseases in Brazil Between 1980 and 2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Blanco Villela

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: Cerebrovascular and hypertensive diseases are among the main causes of death worldwide. However, there are limited data about the trends of these diseases over the years. Objective: To evaluate the temporal trends in mortality rates and proportional mortality from cerebrovascular and hypertensive diseases according to sex and age in Brazil between 1980 and 2012. Methods: We evaluated the underlying causes of death between 1980 and 2012 in both sexes and by age groups for circulatory diseases (CD, cerebrovascular diseases (CBVD, and hypertensive diseases (HD. We also evaluated death due to all causes (AC, external causes (EC, and ill-defined causes of death (IDCD. Data on deaths and population were obtained from the Department of Information Technology of the Unified Health System (Departamento de Informática do Sistema Único de Saúde, DATASUS/MS. We estimated crude and standardized annual mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants and percentages of proportional mortality rates. Results: With the exception of EC, the mortality rates per 100,000 inhabitants of all other diseases increased with age. The proportional mortality of CD, CBVD, and HD increased up to the age range of 60-69 years in men and 70-79 years in women, and reached a plateau in both sexes after that. The standardized rates of CD and CBVD declined in both sexes. However, the HD rates showed the opposite trend and increased mildly during the study period. Conclusion: Despite the decline in standardized mortality rates due to CD and CBVD, there was an increase in deaths due to HD, which could be related to factors associated with the completion of the death certificates, decline in IDCD rates, and increase in the prevalence of hypertension.

  8. Spatio-temporal variability and trends of precipitation and extreme rainfall events in Ethiopia in 1980-2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gummadi, Sridhar; Rao, K. P. C.; Seid, Jemal; Legesse, Gizachew; Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Takele, Robel; Amede, Tilahun; Whitbread, Anthony

    2017-12-01

    This article summarizes the results from an analysis conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal variability and trends in the rainfall over Ethiopia over a period of 31 years from 1980 to 2010. The data is mostly observed station data supplemented by bias-corrected AgMERRA climate data. Changes in annual and Belg (March-May) and Kiremt (June to September) season rainfalls and rainy days have been analysed over the entire Ethiopia. Rainfall is characterized by high temporal variability with coefficient of variation (CV, %) varying from 9 to 30% in the annual, 9 to 69% during the Kiremt season and 15-55% during the Belg season rainfall amounts. Rainfall variability increased disproportionately as the amount of rainfall declined from 700 to 100 mm or less. No significant trend was observed in the annual rainfall amounts over the country, but increasing and decreasing trends were observed in the seasonal rainfall amounts in some areas. A declining trend is also observed in the number of rainy days especially in Oromia, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambella regions. Trends in seasonal rainfall indicated a general decline in the Belg season and an increase in the Kiremt season rainfall amounts. The increase in rainfall during the main Kiremt season along with the decrease in the number of rainy days leads to an increase in extreme rainfall events over Ethiopia. The trends in the 95th-percentile rainfall events illustrate that the annual extreme rainfall events are increasing over the eastern and south-western parts of Ethiopia covering Oromia and Benishangul-Gumuz regions. During the Belg season, extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over central Ethiopia extending towards the southern part of the country while during the Kiremt season, they are observed over parts of Oromia, (covering Borena, Guji, Bali, west Harerge and east Harerge), Somali, Gambella, southern Tigray and Afar regions. Changes in the intensity of extreme rainfall events are mostly observed over south

  9. Declining impacts of hot spells on mortality in the Czech Republic: adaptation to climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kysely, Jan; Plavcova, Eva

    2010-05-01

    Extreme temperature events have pronounced negative impacts on ecosystems and society, including human health effects. The study examines temporal changes in mortality associated with spells of large positive temperature anomalies (hot spells) in the population of the Czech Republic (central Europe) during 1986-2006. Declining trends in the mortality impacts are found in summer as well as in transition seasons, in spite of rising temperature trends (warming by 1.4 deg. C in summer over the 21-year period). The finding remains unchanged if possible confounding effects of within-season acclimatization to heat and the mortality displacement effect are taken into account. Recent positive socio-economic development, following the collapse of communism in central and eastern Europe in 1989, and better public awareness of heat-related risks are likely the primary causes of the declining vulnerability. The results suggest that climate change may have relatively little influence on heat-related deaths, since changes in other factors that influence vulnerability of the population are dominant instead of temperature trends. It is essential to better understand the observed non-stationarity of the temperature-mortality relationship and the role of adaptation and its limits, both physiological and technological, and to address associated uncertainties in studies dealing with climate change projections of temperature-related mortality.

  10. Phylogenetic trends in phenolic metabolism of milkweeds (Asclepias): evidence for escalation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agrawal, Anurag A; Salminen, Juha-Pekka; Fishbein, Mark

    2009-03-01

    Although plant-defense theory has long predicted patterns of chemical defense across taxa, we know remarkably little about the evolution of defense, especially in the context of directional phylogenetic trends. Here we contrast the production of phenolics and cardenolides in 35 species of milkweeds (Asclepias and Gomphocarpus). Maximum-likelihood analyses of character evolution revealed three major patterns. First, consistent with the defense-escalation hypothesis, the diversification of the milkweeds was associated with a trend for increasing phenolic production; this pattern was reversed (a declining evolutionary trend) for cardenolides, toxins sequestered by specialist herbivores. Second, phylogenetically independent correlations existed among phenolic classes across species. For example, coumaric acid derivatives showed negatively correlated evolution with caffeic acid derivatives, and this was likely driven by the fact that the former are used as precursors for the latter. In contrast, coumaric acid derivatives were positively correlated with flavonoids, consistent with competition for the precursor p-coumaric acid. Finally, of the phenolic classes, only flavonoids showed correlated evolution (positive) with cardenolides, consistent with a physiological and evolutionary link between the two via malonate. Thus, this study presents a rigorous test of the defense-escalation hypothesis and a novel phylogenetic approach to understanding the long-term persistence of physiological constraints on secondary metabolism.

  11. Global Energy Trends - 2016 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-01-01

    Based on its 2015 data for G20 countries, Enerdata analyses the trends of the world energy markets. The full report presents in-depth information on the energy markets as well as upcoming trends for all energies in the G20. With over 400 premium sources, Enerdata analysts highlight major developments in 2015 concerning global demand, supply and key indicators across the globe. Key Points: 2.8%: The weakest economic growth since 2002: If the economic activity of OECD countries improved slightly (USA, EU...), that of non - OECD countries slowed down, particularly in China, and with some even declining (Brazil and Russia). +0.5%: Near stagnation of energy consumption: As with last year, 2015 saw weak growth in energy consumption for G20 countries (10.8 Gtoe, or +0.5%, while the 10-year average exceeds 2%). Within the OECD, consumption declined slightly. In non-OECD countries, the evolution becomes historic with an increase limited to 1.3%, compared to a 10-year average of 5%. Besides the direct impact of the economic downturn mentioned above, this result comes largely from China where the near stagnation of energy consumption confirms a trend beginning in 2014 towards a less energy-intensive economy. 0: Stability of CO_2 emissions - cyclical or structural?: After the surprising slowdown in 2014, 2015 also saw a stable level of CO_2 -energy emissions (27 GtCO_2). A direct result from the stagnation in energy consumption, this figure also results from a slight modification in the power mix, in particular from the decline in coal consumption (China, USA..). -3 %: Decrease in the carbon intensity of the economy: In 2015 we acknowledge a 3% decrease in carbon intensity compared to an historical average of -1.5%/year; this progress comes from a decrease in China (stability of energy consumption and decrease of coal share in the mix) and in the USA (more gas, less coal). A trend still far away from climate change targets set at the COP21: On the climate side, the stagnation

  12. Trends of lip, oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancers in Australia 1982–2008: overall good news but with rising rates in the oropharynx

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ariyawardana, Anura; Johnson, Newell W

    2013-01-01

    Considerable global variation in the incidence of lip, of oral cavity and of pharyngeal cancers exists. Whilst this reflects regional or population differences in risk, interpretation is uncertain due to heterogeneity of definitions of sites and of sub-sites within this anatomically diverse region. For Australia, limited data on sub-sites have been published. This study examines age-standardised incidence trends and demography from 1982 to 2008, the latest data available. Numbers of cases within ICD10:C00-C14 were obtained from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, recorded by sex, age, and sub-site. Raw data were re-analysed to calculate crude, age-specific and age-standardised incidence using Segi’s world-standard population. Time-trends were analysed using Joinpoint regression. Lip, Oral Cavity and Pharyngeal (excluding nasopharynx) cancers, considered together, show a biphasic trend: in men rising 0.9% pa from 1982 to 1992, and declining 1.6% pa between 1992 and 2008. For females: rises of 2.0% pa 1982–1997; declines of 2.8% pa 1997–2008. Lip cancer is declining especially significantly. When the Oropharynx is considered separately, steadily increasing trends of 1.2% pa for men and 0.8% pa for women were observed from 1982 to 2008. Although overall rates of lip/oral/oropharyngeal cancer are declining in Australia, these are still high. This study revealed steady increases in cancers of the oropharynx, beginning in the late 1990s. Continued efforts to reduce the burden of these cancers are needed, focused on reduction of the traditional risk factors of alcohol and tobacco, and with special emphasis on the possible role of human papillomavirus and sexual hygiene for cancers of the oropharynx

  13. Soil properties linked to Phytophthora cinnamomi presence and oak decline in Iberian dehesas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, G.; Vivas, M.; Pérez, A.; Cubera, E.; Madeira, M.; Solla, A.

    2009-04-01

    symptomatic (declined) trees, at surface, 50, 100 and 150 cm depths. Soil texture, redox potential, mineral N, and the presence of Phytophthora cinnamomi were determined. Soil bulk density was measured at the surface, and soil compactness was measured through a digital penetrometer at 0-40 cm depth. In the stream banks, fine-textured soils were significantly more common under declined trees than under healthy ones, while in slopes the contrary trend occurred. Differences were clearly observed at layers located at 100 and 150 cm depth. Soil bulk density was moderate, with mean values of 1.05 and 1.07 g cm-3 (0-5 cm depth), and 1.28 and 1.30 g cm-3 (5-10 cm) for healthy and declined oaks, respectively. Regarding soil resistance to penetration, values under declined oaks were significantly (p=0.012) higher below 20 cm depth, probably due to compaction caused by old cultivation practices. Most of the soil samples analyzed showed a high level of oxidation (superoxic and manoxic), 28% were suboxic and only 0.7% were anoxic, with a possible limitation of root growth. Although not significant, soils trended to be more reduced under declined oaks at stream banks, with a contrary tendency at slopes (Table 1). The presence of P. cinammomi in soil was positively related to oak decline in stream banks (p=0.011), but not in slopes, and associated to more compacted soils (p=0.05). The presence of P. cinammomi in roots was positively correlated with oak decay (p=0.01), being more abundant among 50-100 cm depth in slopes, and among 100-150 cm depth in the stream banks, but in both cases was mostly associated to fine-textured soils. In conclusion, Q. ilex decline was not related with anoxic conditions limiting root growth, but with soil properties leading to restricted water availability for trees in slopes, and with soil conditions favorable for P. cinnamomi root-infections in the stream banks.

  14. Growth decline assessment in Pinus sylvestris L. and Pinus nigra Arnold. forest by using 3-PG model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Navarro-Cerrillo, R.M.; Beira, J.; Suarez, J.; Xenakis, G.; Sánchez-Salguero, R.; Hernández-Clemente, R.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of the study: We assessed the ability of the 3-PG process-based model to accurately predict growth of Pinus sylvestris and P. nigra plantations across a range of sites, showing declining growth trends, in southern Spain. Area of study: The study area is located in “Sierra de Los Filabres” (Almería). Material and methods: The model was modified in fifteen parameters to predict diameter (DBH, cm), basal area increment (BAI, cm2 yr-1) and leaf area index (LAI, m2 m-2) in healthy trees and trees showing declining growth. We assumed that a set of specific physiological parameters (stem partitioning ratio-pFS20, maximum litterfall rate-γFx, maximum canopy conductance-gCx, specific leaf area for mature aged stands-σ1, age at which specific leaf area = ½ (σ0 + σ1), age at full canopy cover-tc, and canopy boundary layer conductance-gB) included in 3-PG would be suitable for predicting growth decline related to climate conditions. The calibrated model was evaluated using dendrochronological and LAI data obtained from plots. Main results: Observed and simulated DBH showed a high correlation (R2 > 0.99) between modelled and measured values for both species. In contrast, modelled and observed BAI showed lower correlation (R2 < 0.68). Sensitivity analysis on 3-PG outputs showed that the foliage parameters - maximum litterfall rate, maximum canopy conductance, specific leaf area for mature aged stands, age at which specific leaf area, and age at full canopy cover - were important for DBH and BAI predictions under drought stress. Research highlights: Our overall results indicated that the 3-PG model could predict growth response of pine plantations to climatic stress with desirable accuracy in southern Spain by using readily available soil and climatic data with physiological parameters derived from experiments. (Author)

  15. The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Raupach

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Through 1959–2012, an airborne fraction (AF of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO2 sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation, and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace. An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO2 sink rate (kS, the combined land–ocean CO2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO2 above preindustrial levels. Here we show from observations that kS declined over 1959–2012 by a factor of about 1 / 3, implying that CO2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO2. Using a carbon–climate model, we attribute the decline in kS to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO2 emissions growth (~ 35% of the trend, volcanic eruptions (~ 25%, sink responses to climate change (~ 20%, and nonlinear responses to increasing CO2, mainly oceanic (~ 20%. The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic, nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon cycle. Although continuing future decreases in kS will occur under all plausible CO2 emission scenarios, the rate of decline varies between scenarios in non-intuitive ways because extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly under high-emission, low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon–climate system is perturbed further from a near-linear regime.

  16. A climate trend analysis of Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James; White, Libby

    2012-01-01

    This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained steady in Senegal over the past 20 years but are 15 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.9° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * The amount of farmland per person is low and declining rapidly. * Current population and agriculture trends could lead to a 30-percent reduction in per capita cereal production by 2025.

  17. The lichen flora of declining coniferous trees in the northern Black Forest: Ecological studies aiming at a differentiated assessment of air pollution effects and epidemic disease

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gliemeroth, A.K.

    1990-01-01

    For the forest region of Klosterreichenbach, a map of the state of the lichen flora has been drawn up, based on investigations of lichens on trees in different states of decline and of various age categories, and covering various species of trees, growing in areas showing the typical signs of the novel types of forest damage, and in areas subjected to pollutant emissions of a nearby, heavily polluting emission source. In the close-in area of this emission source, forest decline has been found to be strongly correlated with a heavily depleted lichen flora. Beyond the area affected by the emission source, the degree of decline of the trees has been found to increase with tree hight and age, but the quality and quantity data taken of lichen flora on these trees showed an improving trend, which however is superimposed by climatic and biological factors. The final analysis of the data indicates that the novel types of forest damage can no longer be explained by air pollution alone. (VHE) With many figs. and tabs [de

  18. Decline traffic information system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Plessis, K [Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC), Sydney (Australia)

    2007-09-06

    BHP Billion (BHPB) Cannington has experienced problems in regards to their traffic flow in the decline at the mine. The problems related to reports on near misses of vehicles moving towards each other in the decline. The decline is also to narrow for trucks to pass each other and the operators need to be aware of oncoming traffic in the decline to ensure they could take early evasive steps to ensure the rules of right of way in the decline are adhered to. BHPB Cannington requested CSC to conduct a problem analysis and to provide a solutions proposal to Cannington. The solution was put forward as an augmentation of their current safety procedures used with in the decline. During this phase of the project CSC developed a solutions architecture which involved the use of Active (Radio Frequency Identification) RFID tagging which will enable vehicle movement tracking on a real time basis after which the appropriate traffic movement can be relayed to the operators in the decline. The primary objective of the DTIS is to provide accurate information of traffic movement in the decline and present that information to the operators of the decline IN THE DECLINE upon which they would make their decisions. (orig.)

  19. The effect of different decline angles on the biomechanics of double limb squats and the implications to clinical and training practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Jim; Selfe, James; Sinclair, Jonathan; May, Karen; Thomas, Gavin

    2016-09-01

    Bilateral decline squatting has been well documented as a rehabilitation exercise, however, little information exists on the optimum angle of decline. The aim of this study was to determine the ankle and knee angle, moments, the patellofemoral joint load, patellar tendon load and associated muscle activity while performing a double limb squat at different decline angles and the implications to rehabilitation. Eighteen healthy subjects performed double limb squats at 6 angles of declination: 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 degrees. The range of motion of the knee and ankle joints, external moments, the patellofemoral/patellar tendon load and integrated EMG of gastrocnemius, tibialis anterior, rectus femoris and biceps femoris were evaluated. As the decline angle increased up to 20 degrees, the range of motion possible at the ankle and knee increased. The joint moments showed a decrease at the ankle up to 15 degrees and an increase at the knee up to 25 degrees, indicating a progressive reduction in loading around the ankle with a corresponding increase of the load in the patellar tendon and patellofemoral joint. These trends were supported by a decrease in tibialis anterior activity and an increase in the rectus femoris activity up to 15 degrees declination. However, gastrocnemius and biceps femoris activity increased as the decline angle increased above 15 degrees. The action of gastrocnemius and biceps femoris stabilises the knee against an anterior displacement of the femur on the tibia. These findings would suggest that there is little benefit in using a decline angle greater than 15-20 degrees unless the purpose is to offer an additional stability challenge to the knee joint.

  20. The effect of different decline angles on the biomechanics of double limb squats and the implications to clinical and training practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richards Jim

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Bilateral decline squatting has been well documented as a rehabilitation exercise, however, little information exists on the optimum angle of decline. The aim of this study was to determine the ankle and knee angle, moments, the patellofemoral joint load, patellar tendon load and associated muscle activity while performing a double limb squat at different decline angles and the implications to rehabilitation. Eighteen healthy subjects performed double limb squats at 6 angles of declination: 0, 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25 degrees. The range of motion of the knee and ankle joints, external moments, the patellofemoral/patellar tendon load and integrated EMG of gastrocnemius, tibialis anterior, rectus femoris and biceps femoris were evaluated. As the decline angle increased up to 20 degrees, the range of motion possible at the ankle and knee increased. The joint moments showed a decrease at the ankle up to 15 degrees and an increase at the knee up to 25 degrees, indicating a progressive reduction in loading around the ankle with a corresponding increase of the load in the patellar tendon and patellofemoral joint. These trends were supported by a decrease in tibialis anterior activity and an increase in the rectus femoris activity up to 15 degrees declination. However, gastrocnemius and biceps femoris activity increased as the decline angle increased above 15 degrees. The action of gastrocnemius and biceps femoris stabilises the knee against an anterior displacement of the femur on the tibia. These findings would suggest that there is little benefit in using a decline angle greater than 15-20 degrees unless the purpose is to offer an additional stability challenge to the knee joint.

  1. Perceived decline in intimate partner violence against women in Bangladesh: qualitative evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuler, Sidney Ruth; Lenzi, Rachel; Nazneen, Sohela; Bates, Lisa M

    2013-09-01

    The Bangladesh government, nongovernmental organizations, donors, and advocacy groups have attempted various interventions to promote gender equality and reduce intimate partner violence (IPV) against women, but rigorous evaluations of these interventions are rare and few published studies have yet to show that any of them has had a substantial impact. This study presents qualitative evidence from four villages in central and northern Bangladesh drawn from 11 group discussions (6 with men, 5 with women), 16 open-ended interviews with men, and 62 women's life history narratives. The findings strongly suggest that IPV is declining in these villages as women's economic roles expand and they gain a stronger sense of their rights. Periodic surveys are recommended to measure trends in the incidence of IPV in settings where transitions in gender systems are under way. © 2013 The Population Council, Inc.

  2. The decline of hysterectomy for benign disease.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Horgan, R P

    2012-01-31

    Hysterectomy is one of the most common gynaecological surgical procedures performed but there appears to be a decline in the performance of this procedure in Ireland in recent times. We set out to establish the extent of the decline of hysterectomy and to explore possible explanations. Data for hysterectomy for benign disease from Ireland was obtained from the Hospital In-Patient Enquiry Scheme (HIPE) section of the Economic and Social Research Institute for the years 1999 to 2006. The total number of hysterectomies performed for benign disease showed a consistent decline during this time. There was a 36% reduction in the number of abdominal hysterectomy procedures performed.

  3. Secondhand smoke exposure in cars and rooms: trend comparisons among subpopulations of nonsmoking U.S. middle and high school students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McIntire, Russell K; Macy, Jonathan T; Seo, Dong-Chul; Nelson, Ashlyn A; Kolbe, Lloyd J

    2014-06-01

    Young people in the United States are exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) primarily in 2 settings: homes and cars. Recently, researchers reported that the prevalence of U.S students exposed to SHS in cars decreased from 2000 to 2009; however, comparisons of trends across school levels, gender, and racial/ethnic groups were not assessed. Moreover, no studies have examined trends of exposure to SHS in rooms. We used data from the 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009 waves of the National Youth Tobacco Survey, a nationally representative cross-sectional survey of U.S. middle and high school students. For SHS in cars and rooms, we identified exposure trends among nonsmokers from 2000 to 2009 and compared trends across subpopulations with binary logistic regression. We identified significant downward linear trends in SHS in cars and rooms for nearly all measured subpopulations of nonsmoking students from 2000 to 2009. SHS exposure in cars and rooms declined at a significantly greater rate for males than for females. SHS exposure in cars declined at a significantly greater rate for non-Hispanic (NH) Blacks than for NH Whites. SHS exposure in rooms declined at a significantly greater rate for NH Whites than for Hispanics and Native Hawaiians/Pacific Islanders. Although prevalence of exposure to SHS in cars and rooms among nonsmoking U.S. middle and high school students has declined from 2000 to 2009, the rates of decline were not equal across genders and racial/ethnic groups. Identification of these differing rates of exposure can help the public health community advocate for interventions focused on reducing adolescent SHS exposure.

  4. Combined effect of lung function level and decline increases morbidity and mortality risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baughman, Penelope; Marott, Jacob Louis; Lange, Peter

    2012-01-01

    obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) morbidity, COPD or coronary heart disease mor- tality, and all-cause mortality were estimated from com- bined effects of level and decline in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1). Risks were evaluated using Cox proportional hazards models for individuals grouped...... by combinations of baseline predicted FEV1 and quartiles of slope. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % con¿dence intervals (CI) were estimated using strati¿ed analysis by gender, smoking status, and baseline age (B45 and [45). For COPD morbidity, quartiles of increasing FEV1 decline increased HRs (95 % CI......) for individuals with FEV1 at or above the lower limit of normal (LLN) but below 100 % predicted, reaching 5.11 (2.58–10.13) for males, 11.63 (4.75–28.46) for females, and 3.09 (0.88–10.86) for never smokers in the quartile of steepest decline. Signi¿cant increasing trends were also observed for mortality...

  5. CCl4 distribution derived from MIPAS ESA v7 data: intercomparisons, trend, and lifetime estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valeri, Massimo; Barbara, Flavio; Boone, Chris; Ceccherini, Simone; Gai, Marco; Maucher, Guido; Raspollini, Piera; Ridolfi, Marco; Sgheri, Luca; Wetzel, Gerald; Zoppetti, Nicola

    2017-08-01

    Atmospheric emissions of carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) are regulated by the Montreal Protocol due to its role as a strong ozone-depleting substance. The molecule has been the subject of recent increased interest as a consequence of the so-called mystery of CCl4, the discrepancy between atmospheric observations and reported production and consumption. Surface measurements of CCl4 atmospheric concentrations have declined at a rate almost 3 times lower than its lifetime-limited rate, suggesting persistent atmospheric emissions despite the ban. In this paper, we study CCl4 vertical and zonal distributions in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (including the photolytic loss region, 70-20 hPa), its trend, and its stratospheric lifetime using measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), which operated onboard the ENVISAT satellite from 2002 to 2012. Specifically, we use the MIPAS data product generated with Version 7 of the Level 2 algorithm operated by the European Space Agency.The CCl4 zonal means show features typical of long-lived species of anthropogenic origin that are destroyed primarily in the stratosphere, with larger quantities in the troposphere and a monotonic decrease with increasing altitude in the stratosphere. MIPAS CCl4 measurements have been compared with independent measurements from other satellite and balloon-borne remote sounders, showing a good agreement between the different datasets.CCl4 trends are calculated as a function of both latitude and altitude. Negative trends of about text">-10 to -15 pptv decade-1 (-10 to -30 % decade-1) are found at all latitudes in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere region, apart from a region in the southern midlatitudes between 50 and 10 hPa where the trend is positive with values around 5-10 pptv decade-1 (15-20 % decade-1). At the lowest altitudes sounded by MIPAS, we find trends consistent with those determined on the basis of long-term ground

  6. Trends in stroke hospitalisation rates and in-hospital mortality in Aragon, 1998-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giménez-Muñoz, A; Ara, J R; Abad Díez, J M; Campello Morer, I; Pérez Trullén, J M

    2018-05-01

    Despite the impact of cerebrovascular disease (CVD) on global health, its morbidity and time trends in Spain are not precisely known. The purpose of our study was to characterise the epidemiology and trends pertaining to stroke in Aragon over the period 1998-2010. We conducted a retrospective, descriptive study using the data of the Spanish health system's Minimum Data Set and included all stroke patients admitted to acute care hospitals in Aragon between 1 January 1998 and 31 December 2010. We present data globally and broken down by stroke subtype, sex, and age group. The number of cases increased by 13% whereas age- and sex-adjusted hospitalisation rates showed a significant decrease for all types of stroke (mean annual decrease of 1.6%). Men and women in younger age groups showed opposite trends in hospitalisation rates for ischaemic stroke. Case fatality rate at 28 days (17.9%) was higher in patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (35.8%) than in those with subarachnoid haemorrhage (26.2%) or ischaemic stroke (13%). CVD case fatality showed a mean annual decline of 2.8%, at the expense of the fatality rate of ischaemic stroke, and it was more pronounced in men than in women. Understanding stroke epidemiology and trends at the regional level will help establish an efficient monitoring system and design appropriate strategies for health planning. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected

  8. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  9. Quantitative evidence for the effects of multiple drivers on continental-scale amphibian declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Miller, David A. W.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Adams, Michael J.; Amburgey, Staci M.; Chambert, Thierry A.; Cruickshank, Sam S.; Fisher, Robert N.; Green, David M.; Hossack, Blake R.; Johnson, Pieter T.J.; Joseph, Maxwell B.; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Ryan, Maureen E.; Waddle, J. Hardin; Walls, Susan C.; Bailey, Larissa L.; Fellers, Gary M.; Gorman, Thomas A.; Ray, Andrew M.; Pilliod, David S.; Price, Steven J.; Saenz, Daniel; Sadinski, Walt; Muths, Erin L.

    2016-01-01

    Since amphibian declines were first proposed as a global phenomenon over a quarter century ago, the conservation community has made little progress in halting or reversing these trends. The early search for a “smoking gun” was replaced with the expectation that declines are caused by multiple drivers. While field observations and experiments have identified factors leading to increased local extinction risk, evidence for effects of these drivers is lacking at large spatial scales. Here, we use observations of 389 time-series of 83 species and complexes from 61 study areas across North America to test the effects of 4 of the major hypothesized drivers of declines. While we find that local amphibian populations are being lost from metapopulations at an average rate of 3.79% per year, these declines are not related to any particular threat at the continental scale; likewise the effect of each stressor is variable at regional scales. This result - that exposure to threats varies spatially, and populations vary in their response - provides little generality in the development of conservation strategies. Greater emphasis on local solutions to this globally shared phenomenon is needed.

  10. Declining consumption of added sugars and sugar-sweetened beverages in Australia: a challenge for obesity prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brand-Miller, Jennie C; Barclay, Alan W

    2017-04-01

    Background: Reduced intakes of added sugars and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have been the main focus of efforts to stall obesity. Although obesity has risen steeply in Australia, some evidence suggests that added-sugars and SSB intakes have declined over the same time frame. Objective: We investigated recent trends in the availability of sugars and sweeteners and changes in intakes of total sugars, added sugars, and SSBs in Australia by using multiple, independent data sources. Design: The study was designed to compare relevant data published by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [FAO Statistics Division Database (FAOSTAT)], the Australian government, academia, and the food industry. Results: With the use of the FAOSTAT food balance sheets for Australia, the per capita availability of added or refined sugars and sweeteners was shown to have fallen 16% from 152 g/d in 1980 to 127 g/d in 2011 ( P -trend = 0.001). In national dietary surveys in 1995 and 2011-2012, added-sugars intake declined markedly in adult men (from 72 to 59 g/d; -18%) but not in women (44-42 g/d; NS). As a proportion of total energy, added-sugars intake fell 10% in adult men but nonsignificantly in adult women. Between 1995 and 2011-2012, the proportion of energy from SSBs (including 100% juice) declined 10% in adult men and 20% in women. More marked changes were observed in children aged 2-18 y. Data from national grocery sales indicated that per capita added-sugars intakes derived from carbonated soft drinks fell 26% between 1997 and 2011 (from 23 to 17 g/d) with similar trends for noncarbonated beverages. Conclusions: In Australia, 4 independent data sets confirmed shorter- and longer-term declines in the availability and intake of added sugars, including those contributed by SSBs. The findings challenge the widespread belief that energy from added sugars or sugars in solution are uniquely linked to the prevalence of obesity. © 2017 American Society for Nutrition.

  11. Climate variability and temporal trends of persistent organic pollutants in the arctic: a study of glaucous gulls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustnes, Jan O; Gabrielsen, Geir W; Verreault, Jonathan

    2010-04-15

    The impact of climate variability on temporal trends (1997-2006) of persistent organic pollutants (POPs; polychlorinated biphenyls [PCB], hexachlorobenzene [HCB], and oxychlordane) was assessed in glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) breeding in the Norwegian Arctic (n = 240). The Arctic Oscillation (AO: an index of sea-level pressure variability in the Northern Hemisphere above 20 degrees N) with different time lags was used as a climate proxy. The estimated concentrations of POPs in glaucous gull blood/plasma declined substantially (16-60%) over the time period. Multiple regression analyses showed that the rates of decline for POPs were correlated to climate variation when controlling for potential confounding variables (sex and body condition). More specifically AO in the current winter showed negative associations with POP concentrations, whereas the relationships with AO measurements from the year preceding POP measurements (AO preceding summer and AO preceding winter) were positive. Hence, gulls had relatively higher POP concentrations in breeding seasons following years with high air transport toward the Arctic. Furthermore, the impact of AO appeared to be stronger for HCB, a relatively volatile compound with high transport potential, compared to heavy chlorinated PCB congeners. This study thus suggests that predicted climate change should be considered in assessments of future temporal trends of POPs in Arctic wildlife.

  12. Ohia forest decline: its spread and severity in Hawaii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwin Q. P. Petteys; Robert E. Burgan; Robert E. Nelson

    1975-01-01

    Ohia forest decline–its severity and rate of spread–was studied by aerial photographic techniques on a 197,000-acre (80,000-ha) portion of the island of Hawaii. In 1954, only 300 acres (121 ha) showed signs of severe decline; by 1972, the acreage of severely affected forest had increased to 85,200 acres (34,480 ha). Rate of decline and current severity were related to...

  13. Reversal of Increasing Tropical Ocean Hypoxia Trends With Sustained Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Weiwei; Primeau, Francois; Keith Moore, J.; Lindsay, Keith; Randerson, James T.

    2018-04-01

    Dissolved oxygen (O2) is essential for the survival of marine animals. Climate change impacts on future oxygen distributions could modify species biogeography, trophic interactions, biodiversity, and biogeochemistry. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models predict a decreasing trend in marine O2 over the 21st century. Here we show that this increasing hypoxia trend reverses in the tropics after 2100 in the Community Earth System Model forced by atmospheric CO2 from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and Extended Concentration Pathway 8.5. In tropical intermediate waters between 200 and 1,000 m, the model predicts a steady decline of O2 and an expansion of oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) during the 21st century. By 2150, however, the trend reverses with oxygen concentration increasing and OMZ volume shrinking through 2300. A novel five-box model approach in conjunction with output from the full Earth system model is used to separate the contributions of biological and physical processes to the trends in tropical oxygen. The tropical O2 recovery is caused mainly by reductions in tropical biological export, coupled with a modest increase in ventilation after 2200. The time-evolving oxygen distribution impacts marine nitrogen cycling, with potentially important climate feedbacks.

  14. Does Child Labor Decline with Improving Economic Status?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edmonds, Eric V.

    2005-01-01

    The rapid economic growth of Vietnam provides an interesting insight into the sharp decline in child labor. A study of the rising economic status of the population across Vietnam shows that children returned to school or stopped working as their family incomes grew. The decline in child labor is steep in poor households as they emerged from…

  15. Suicide rates: age-associated trends and their correlates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ajit Shah

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Suicide rates traditionally increased with ageing. There is a paucity of studies examining factors associated with age-associated trends in suicide rates. METHODS: The relationship between suicide rates and ageing was examined by ascertaining suicide rates in the seven age-bands 16-24 years to 75+ years from the World Health Organization for 97 countries. The relationship between socio-economic status, income inequality, healthcare expenditure, child mortality rates and life expectancy and countries with an increase, a decline and no change in suicide rates with ageing was examined using data from the United Nations. RESULTS: In males and females there was a decline in 5 and 10 countries, an increase in 33 and 37 countries and no change in 59 and 50 countries respectively in suicide rates with ageing. Age-associated trends in suicide rates were significantly associated with socio-economic status (males or income inequality (females, per capita expenditure in healthcare, the proportion of gross-national domestic product spent on healthcare, child mortality rates and life expectancy. CONCLUSIONS: The current study, of factors associated with age-associated trends in suicide rates, confirmed a previously developed five sequential stage model to explain the relationship between elderly suicide rates and socio-economic status and income inequality, quality and quantity of healthcare services, child mortality rates and life expectancy.

  16. Substantial decline in sugar-sweetened beverage consumption among California’s children and adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Shi

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Lu Shi, Jeroen van MeijgaardUCLA Health Forecasting, UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA, USAIntroduction: Few studies have looked at changes among risk factors that might help explain why childhood obesity prevalence in the US has leveled off in recent years. We present an analysis of the California Health Interview Survey (CHIS that examines trends in childhood and adolescent obesity as well as trends in sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB consumption.Method: We compared 3 separate cross-sectional samples (2003, 2005, and 2007 from biennial CHIS for 3 age groups, age 2–5, age 6–11 and age 12–17. We calculated the prevalence of high SSB consumption (defined as having more than one SSB during the previous day. 2 measures of obesity were used – weight-for-age at or above the 95th percentile on national growth charts for children aged 2–11, and body mass index for age at or above the 95th percentile on national growth charts for adolescents aged 12–17. Logistic regression analysis is used to estimate adjusted odds ratios of high SSB consumption in 2005 and 2007 compared with the baseline year of 2003.Results: From 2003 to 2007, each age group experienced a substantial decline in high SSB consumption (16.4%–5.0% for age 2–5, P < 0.001; 22.5%–9.9% for age 6–11, P < 0.001; 35.7%–25.7% for age 12–17, P < 0.001. Declines in the prevalence of children’s obesity were significant among children age 2–5 (P < 0.001 and age 6–11 (P < 0.05 but not among adolescents (P = 0.42. Children and teenagers in 2005 and 2007 were significantly less likely than those surveyed in 2003 to have high SSB consumption after adjusting for gender, age, race/ethnicity, poverty level, and parental education (P < 0.001.Conclusion: Policy actions may have impacted the prevalence of SSB consumption in the population. Further research is needed to examine the contribution of declining SSB consumption on the leveling off of obesity trends and the

  17. Calorie Changes in Large Chain Restaurants: Declines in New Menu Items but Room for Improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bleich, Sara N; Wolfson, Julia A; Jarlenski, Marian P

    2016-01-01

    Large chain restaurants reduced the number of calories in newly introduced menu items in 2013 by about 60 calories (or 12%) relative to 2012. This paper describes trends in calories available in large U.S. chain restaurants to understand whether previously documented patterns persist. Data (a census of items for included restaurants) were obtained from the MenuStat project. This analysis included 66 of the 100 largest U.S. restaurants that are available in all three of the data years (2012-2014; N=23,066 items). Generalized linear models were used to examine: (1) per-item calorie changes from 2012 to 2014 among items on the menu in all years; and (2) mean calories in new items in 2013 and 2014 compared with items on the menu in 2012 only. Data were analyzed in 2014. Overall, calories in newly introduced menu items declined by 71 (or 15%) from 2012 to 2013 (p=0.001) and by 69 (or 14%) from 2012 to 2014 (p=0.03). These declines were concentrated mainly in new main course items (85 fewer calories in 2013 and 55 fewer calories in 2014; p=0.01). Although average calories in newly introduced menu items are declining, they are higher than items common to the menu in all 3 years. No differences in mean calories among items on menus in 2012, 2013, or 2014 were found. The previously observed declines in newly introduced menu items among large restaurant chains have been maintained, which suggests the beginning of a trend toward reducing calories. Copyright © 2016 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Associations between sexual behaviour change in young people and decline in HIV prevalence in Zambia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siziya Seter

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Evidence suggests that HIV prevalence amongst young Zambians has declined recently, especially in higher-education groups. We studied trends in key sexual behaviour indicators among 15–24 year-olds from 1995 to 2003, including the associations between sexual behaviour change and education. Methods The data stem from a series of three population-based surveys conducted in 1995 (n = 1720, 1999 (n = 1946 and 2003 (n = 2637. Logistic regression and Extended Mantel Haenszel Chi Square for linear trends were used to compare the three surveys. Results Men and lower-education groups reported more than one sexual partner in the year immediately prior to the survey more frequently than did women and higher-education groups (p Conclusion High risk behaviours clearly decreased, especially in higher-educated and urban groups, and there is a probable association here with the decline in HIV prevalence in the study population. Fewer sexual partners and condom use were among the core factors involved for both sexes; and for women a further factor was delayed child-bearing.

  19. Long-term monitoring data provide evidence of declining species richness in a river valued for biodiversity conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Mary C.; Hagler, Megan M.; Bumpers, Phillip M.; Wheeler, Kit; Wengerd, Seth J.; Freeman, Byron J.

    2017-01-01

    Free-flowing river segments provide refuges for many imperiled aquatic biota that have been extirpated elsewhere in their native ranges. These biodiversity refuges are also foci of conservation concerns because species persisting within isolated habitat fragments may be particularly vulnerable to local environmental change. We have analyzed long-term (14- and 20-y) survey data to assess evidence of fish species declines in two southeastern U.S. rivers where managers and stakeholders have identified potentially detrimental impacts of current and future land uses. The Conasauga River (Georgia and Tennessee) and the Etowah River (Georgia) form free-flowing headwaters of the extensively dammed Coosa River system. These rivers are valued in part because they harbor multiple species of conservation concern, including three federally endangered and two federally threatened fishes. We used data sets comprising annual surveys for fish species at multiple, fixed sites located at river shoals to analyze occupancy dynamics and temporal changes in species richness. Our analyses incorporated repeated site-specific surveys in some years to estimate and account for incomplete species detection, and test for species-specific (rarity, mainstem-restriction) and year-specific (elevated frequencies of low- or high-flow days) covariates on occupancy dynamics. In the Conasauga River, analysis of 26 species at 13 sites showed evidence of temporal declines in colonization rates for nearly all taxa, accompanied by declining species richness. Four taxa (including one federally endangered species) had reduced occupancy across the Conasauga study sites, with three of these taxa apparently absent for at least the last 5 y of the study. In contrast, a similar fauna of 28 taxa at 10 sites in the Etowah River showed no trends in species persistence, colonization, or occupancy. None of the tested covariates showed strong effects on persistence or colonization rates in either river. Previous studies

  20. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John M Maniscalco

    Full Text Available Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  1. Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maniscalco, John M; Springer, Alan M; Adkison, Milo D; Parker, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality.

  2. Trends in the incidence, treatment, and outcomes of acute lower extremity ischemia in the United States Medicare population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baril, Donald T; Ghosh, Kaushik; Rosen, Allison B

    2014-09-01

    Acute lower extremity ischemia (ALI) is a common vascular surgery emergency associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality. The purpose of this study was to assess contemporary trends in the incidence of ALI, the methods of treatment, and the associated mortality and amputation rates in the U.S. Medicare population. This was an observational study using Medicare claims data between 1998 and 2009. Outcomes examined included trends in the incidence of ALI; trends in interventions for ALI; and trends in amputation, mortality, and amputation-free survival rates. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of hospitalization for ALI decreased from 45.7 per 100,000 to 26.0 per 100,000 (P for trend < .001). The percentage of patients undergoing surgical intervention decreased from 57.1% to 51.6% (P for trend < .001), whereas the percentage of patients undergoing endovascular interventions increased from 15.0% to 33.1% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital mortality rates decreased from 12.0% to 9.0% (P for trend < .001), whereas 1-year mortality rates remained stable at 41.0% and 42.5% (P for trend not significant). In-hospital amputation rates remained stable at 8.1% and 6.4% (P for trend not significant), whereas 1-year amputation rates decreased from 14.8% to 11.0% (P for trend < .001). In-hospital amputation-free survival after hospitalization for ALI increased from 81.2% to 85.4% (P for trend < .001); however, 1-year amputation-free survival remained unchanged. Between 1998 and 2009, the incidence of ALI among the U.S. Medicare population declined significantly, and the percentage of patients treated with endovascular techniques markedly increased. During this time, 1-year amputation rates declined. Furthermore, although in-hospital mortality rates declined after presentation with ALI, 1-year mortality rates remained unchanged. Copyright © 2014 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. 20th-Century Climate Change over Africa: Seasonal Variation in Hydroclimate Trends and Sahara Desert Extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nigam, S.; Thomas, N. P.

    2017-12-01

    Twentieth-century trends in seasonal temperature and precipitation over the African continent are analyzed from observational data sets and historical climate simulations. Given the agricultural economy of the continent, a seasonal perspective is adopted as it is more pertinent than an annual-average one which can mask off-setting but agriculturally-sensitive seasonal hydroclimate variations. Examination of linear trends in seasonal surface air temperature (SAT) shows that heat stress has increased in several regions, including Sudan and Northern Africa where largest SAT trends occur in the warm season. Broadly speaking, the northern continent has warmed more than the southern one in all seasons. Precipitation trends are varied but notable declining trends are found in the countries along the Gulf of Guinea, especially in the source region of Niger river in West Africa, and in the Congo river basin. Rainfall over the African Great Lakes - one of the largest freshwater repositories - has however increased. We show that the Sahara Desert has expanded significantly over the 20th century - by 12-20% depending on the season. The desert expanded southward in summer, reflecting retreat of the northern edge of the Sahel rainfall belt; and to the north in winter, indicating potential impact of the widening of the Tropics. Specific mechanisms driving the expansion in each season are investigated. Finally, this observational analysis is used to evaluate the state-of-the-art climate models from a comparison of the 20th-century hydroclimate trends with those manifest in historical climate simulations. The evaluation shows that modeling regional hydroclimate change over the Africa continent remains challenging.

  4. A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

    2012-01-01

    This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

  5. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  6. Change Points in the Population Trends of Aerial-Insectivorous Birds in North America: Synchronized in Time across Species and Regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam C Smith

    Full Text Available North American populations of aerial insectivorous birds are in steep decline. Aerial insectivores (AI are a group of bird species that feed almost exclusively on insects in flight, and include swallows, swifts, nightjars, and flycatchers. The causes of the declines are not well understood. Indeed, it is not clear when the declines began, or whether the declines are shared across all species in the group (e.g., caused by changes in flying insect populations or specific to each species (e.g., caused by changes in species' breeding habitat. A recent study suggested that population trends of aerial insectivores changed for the worse in the 1980s. If there was such a change point in trends of the group, understanding its timing and geographic pattern could help identify potential causes of the decline. We used a hierarchical Bayesian, penalized regression spline, change point model to estimate group-level change points in the trends of 22 species of AI, across 153 geographic strata of North America. We found evidence for group-level change points in 85% of the strata. Change points for flycatchers (FC were distinct from those for swallows, swifts and nightjars (SSN across North America, except in the Northeast, where all AI shared the same group-level change points. During the 1980s, there was a negative change point across most of North America, in the trends of SSN. For FC, the group-level change points were more geographically variable, and in many regions there were two: a positive change point followed by a negative change point. This group-level synchrony in AI population trends is likely evidence of a response to a common environmental factor(s with similar effects on many species across broad spatial extents. The timing and geographic patterns of the change points that we identify here should provide a spring-board for research into the causes behind aerial insectivore declines.

  7. The complete genome sequence of a new polerovirus in strawberry plants from eastern Canada showing strawberry decline symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Yu; Bernardy, Mike; Bhagwat, Basdeo; Wiersma, Paul A; DeYoung, Robyn; Bouthillier, Michel

    2015-02-01

    Strawberry decline disease, probably caused by synergistic reactions of mixed virus infections, threatens the North American strawberry industry. Deep sequencing of strawberry plant samples from eastern Canada resulted in the identification of a new virus genome resembling poleroviruses in sequence and genome structure. Phylogenetic analysis suggests that it is a new member of the genus Polerovirus, family Luteoviridae. The virus is tentatively named "strawberry polerovirus 1" (SPV1).

  8. AMPK agonist AICAR delays the initial decline in lifetime-apex V̇o2 peak, while voluntary wheel running fails to delay its initial decline in female rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toedebusch, Ryan G; Ruegsegger, Gregory N; Braselton, Joshua F; Heese, Alexander J; Hofheins, John C; Childs, Tom E; Thyfault, John P; Booth, Frank W

    2016-02-01

    There has never been an outcome measure for human health more important than peak oxygen consumption (V̇o2 peak), yet little is known regarding the molecular triggers for its lifetime decline with aging. We examined the ability of physical activity or 5 wk of 5-aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide-1-β-d-ribofuranoside (AICAR) administration to delay the initial aging-induced decline in lifetime-apex V̇o2 peak and potential underlying molecular mechanisms. Experiment 1 consisted of female rats with (RUN) and without (NO RUN) running wheels, while experiment 2 consisted of female nonrunning rats getting the AMPK agonist AICAR (0.5 mg/g/day) subcutaneously for 5 wk beginning at 17 wk of age. All rats underwent frequent, weekly or biweekly V̇o2 peak tests beginning at 10 wk of age. In experiment 1, lifetime-apex V̇o2 peak occurred at 19 wk of age in both RUN and NO RUN and decreased thereafter. V̇o2 peak measured across experiment 1 was ∼25% higher in RUN than in NO RUN. In experiment 2, AICAR delayed the chronological age observed in experiment 1 by 1 wk, from 19 wk to 20 wk of age. RUN and NO RUN showed different skeletal muscle transcriptomic profiles both pre- and postapex. Additionally, growth and development pathways are differentially regulated between RUN and NO RUN. Angiomotin mRNA was downregulated postapex in RUN and NO RUN. Furthermore, strong significant correlations to V̇o2 peak and trends for decreased protein concentration supports angiomotin's potential importance in our model. Contrary to our primary hypothesis, wheel running was not sufficient to delay the chronological age of lifetime-apex V̇o2 peak decline, whereas AICAR delayed it 1 wk. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  9. Trends in radionuclide concentrations for wildlife and food products near Hanford for the period 1971 through 1988

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eberhardt, L.E.; Cadwell, L.L.; Price, K.R.; Carlile, D.W.

    1989-10-01

    The objective of this summary investigation was to identify trends in radionuclide concentrations for wildlife and food products sampled from 1971 through 1988 as part of the Hanford Site Environmental Monitoring Program. No upward trends in radionuclide concentrations were detected for any wildlife or food products. Several sample types demonstrated significantly declining radionuclide concentrations. Three factors appeared to be responsible for the trends. First, the cessation of atmospheric testing by the United States and Soviet Union in 1971 contributed to the decline of radionuclides in some samples. Second, contaminants discharged to the Columbia River were reduced subsequent to the 1971 shutdown of the last Hanford nuclear reactor that used a once-through cooling water design. The reactor closing resulted in declines in activation products in oysters from Willapa Bay and in whitefish from the Hanford Reach of the Columbia River. Third, reductions in radionuclide concentrations in Hanford wildlife suggested a decreasing availability of environmental contaminants to wildlife. Remediation of areas having environmental surface contaminants on the Hanford Site was identified as a probable cause. 5 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  10. Forest Disturbance Across the Conterminous United States from 1985-2012: The Emerging Dominance of Forest Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Warren B.; Yang, Zhiqiang; Stehman, Stephen; Schroeder, Todd; Bell, David M.; Masek, Jeffrey; Huang, Chengquan; Meigs, Garrett W.

    2015-01-01

    Evidence of shifting dominance among major forest disturbance agent classes regionally to globally has been emerging in the literature. For example, climate-related stress and secondary stressors on forests (e.g., insect and disease, fire) have dramatically increased since the turn of the century globally, while harvest rates in the western US and elsewhere have declined. For shifts to be quantified, accurate historical forest disturbance estimates are required as a baseline for examining current trends. We report annual disturbance rates (with uncertainties) in the aggregate and by major change causal agent class for the conterminous US and five geographic subregions between 1985 and 2012. Results are based on human interpretations of Landsat time series from a probability sample of 7200 plots (30 m) distributed throughout the study area. Forest disturbance information was recorded with a Landsat time series visualization and data collection tool that incorporates ancillary high-resolution data. National rates of disturbance varied between 1.5% and 4.5% of forest area per year, with trends being strongly affected by shifting dominance among specific disturbance agent influences at the regional scale. Throughout the time series, national harvest disturbance rates varied between one and two percent, and were largely a function of harvest in the more heavily forested regions of the US (Mountain West, Northeast, and Southeast). During the first part of the time series, national disturbance rates largely reflected trends in harvest disturbance. Beginning in the mid-90s, forest decline-related disturbances associated with diminishing forest health (e.g., physiological stress leading to tree canopy cover loss, increases in tree mortality above background levels), especially in the Mountain West and Lowland West regions of the US, increased dramatically. Consequently, national disturbance rates greatly increased by 2000, and remained high for much of the decade. Decline

  11. Natural gas 1995: Issues and trends

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-11-01

    Natural Gas 1995: Issues and Trends addresses current issues affecting the natural gas industry and markets. Highlights of recent trends include: Natural gas wellhead prices generally declined throughout 1994 and for 1995 averages 22% below the year-earlier level; Seasonal patterns of natural gas production and wellhead prices have been significantly reduced during the past three year; Natural gas production rose 15% from 1985 through 1994, reaching 18.8 trillion cubic feet; Increasing amounts of natural gas have been imported; Since 1985, lower costs of producing and transporting natural gas have benefitted consumers; Consumers may see additional benefits as States examine regulatory changes aimed at increasing efficiency; and, The electric industry is being restructured in a fashion similar to the recent restructuring of the natural gas industry.

  12. Depreciating Indian Rupee: Trends and Issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BADAR ALAM IQBAL

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Indian rupee has been depreciating since May 2013 creating many dimensional trends and issues to be looked at or to be examined. If a currency is depreciating it implies that the value has gone down in relation to another currency. Presently, the value of rupee has declined from nearly Rs. 55 to a dollar to nearly 69 rupees a dollar. This is because portfolio investors are now taking back their money from emerging markets causing demand for dollars (international currency for payments to increase hence, pulling down Indian currency. The present paper analyzing the deprecating trends since independence in the context of Indian economy and also discusses issues which have come up due to depreciation of Indian rupee.

  13. Secular trends in menarcheal age in India-evidence from the Indian human development survey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praveen Kumar Pathak

    Full Text Available Evidence from a number of countries in Europe and North America point towards the secular declining trend in menarcheal age with considerable spatial variations over the past two centuries. Similar trends were reported in several developing countries from Asia, Africa and Latin America. However, data corroborating any secular trend in the menarcheal age of the Indian population remained sparse and inadequately verified.We examined secular trends, regional heterogeneity and association of socioeconomic, anthropometric and contextual factors with menarcheal age among ever-married women (15-49 years in India. Using the pseudo cohort data approach, we fit multiple linear regression models to estimate secular trends in menarcheal age of 91394 ever-married women using the Indian Human Development Survey.The mean age at menarche among Indian women was 13.76 years (95 % CI: 13.75, 13.77 in 2005. It declined by three months from 13.83 years (95% CI: 13.81, 13.85 among women born prior to 1955-1964, to nearly 13.62 years (95% CI: 13.58, 13.67 among women born during late 1985-1989. However, these aggregate national figures mask extensive spatial heterogeneity as mean age at menarche varied from 15.0 years in Himachal Pradesh during 1955-1964 (95% CI: 14.89-15.11 to about 12.1 years in Assam (95% CI: 11.63-12.56 during 1985-1989.The regression analysis established a reduction of nearly one month per decade, suggesting a secular decline in age at menarche among Indian women. Notably, the menarcheal age was significantly associated with the area of residence, geographic region, linguistic groups, educational attainment, wealth status, caste and religious affiliations among Indian women.

  14. Crop diversity loss as primary cause of grey partridge and common pheasant decline in Lower Saxony, Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronnenberg, Katrin; Strauß, Egbert; Siebert, Ursula

    2016-09-09

    The grey partridge (Perdix perdix) and the common pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) are galliform birds typical of arable lands in Central Europe and exhibit a partly dramatic negative population trend. In order to understand general habitat preferences we modelled grey partridge and common pheasant densities over the entire range of Lower Saxony. Spatially explicit developments in bird densities were modelled using spatially explicit trends of crop cultivation. Pheasant and grey partridge densities counted annually by over 8000 hunting district holders over 10 years in a range of 3.7 Mio ha constitute a unique dataset (wildlife survey of Lower Saxony). Data on main landscape groups, functional groups of agricultural crops (consisting of 9.5 million fields compiled by the Integrated Administration and Control System) and landscape features were aggregated to 420 municipalities. To model linear 8 or 10 year population trends (for common pheasant and grey partridge respectively) we use rho correlation coefficients of densities, but also rho coefficients of agricultural crops. All models confirm a dramatic decline in population densities. The habitat model for the grey partridge shows avoidance of municipalities with a high proportion of woodland and water areas, but a preference for areas with a high proportion of winter grains and high crop diversity. The trend model confirms these findings with a linear positive effect of diversity on grey partridge population development. Similarly, the pheasant avoids wooded areas but showed some preference for municipalities with open water. The effect of maize was found to be positive at medium densities, but negative at very high proportions. Winter grains, landscape features and high crop diversity are favorable. The positive effect of winter grains and higher crop diversity is also supported by the trend model. The results show the strong importance of diverse crop cultivation. Most incentives favor the cultivation of

  15. Abrupt Decline in Tuberculosis among Foreign-Born Persons in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian J Baker

    Full Text Available While the number of reported tuberculosis (TB cases in the United States has declined over the past two decades, TB morbidity among foreign-born persons has remained persistently elevated. A recent unexpected decline in reported TB cases among foreign-born persons beginning in 2007 provided an opportunity to examine contributing factors and inform future TB control strategies. We investigated the relative influence of three factors on the decline: 1 changes in the size of the foreign-born population through immigration and emigration, 2 changes in distribution of country of origin among foreign-born persons, and 3 changes in the TB case rates among foreign-born subpopulations. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined TB case counts, TB case rates, and population estimates, stratified by years since U.S. entry and country of origin. Regression modeling was used to assess statistically significant changes in trend. Among foreign-born recent entrants (<3 years since U.S. entry, we found a 39.5% decline (-1,013 cases beginning in 2007 (P<0.05 compared to 2000-2007 and ending in 2011 (P<0.05 compared to 2011-2014. Among recent entrants from Mexico, 80.7% of the decline was attributable to a decrease in population, while the declines among recent entrants from the Philippines, India, Vietnam, and China were almost exclusively (95.5%-100% the result of decreases in TB case rates. Among foreign-born non-recent entrants (≥3 years since U.S. entry, we found an 8.9% decline (-443 cases that resulted entirely (100% from a decrease in the TB case rate. Both recent and non-recent entrants contributed to the decline in TB cases; factors contributing to the decline among recent entrants varied by country of origin. Strategies that impact both recent and non-recent entrants (e.g., investment in overseas TB control as well as those that focus on non-recent entrants (e.g., expanded targeted

  16. Contaminant Dynamics and Trends in Hyperalkaline Urban Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, Alex; Mayes, William

    2015-04-01

    Streams in post-industrial urban areas can have multiple contemporary and historic pressures impacting upon their chemical and ecological status. This paper presents analysis of long term data series (up to 36 years in length) from two small streams in northern England (catchment areas 0.5-0.6km2). Around 3.5 million m3 of steel making slags and other wastes were deposited in the headwater areas of the Howden Burn and Dene Burn in northeast England up to the closure of the workings in the early 1980s. This has led to streams draining from the former workings which have a hyperalkaline ambient pH (mean of 10.3 in both streams), elevated alkalinity (up to 487 mg/L as CaCO3) from leaching of lime and other calcium oxides / silicates within the slag, and enrichment of some trace elements (e.g. aluminium (Al), lithium (Li) and zinc (Zn)) including those which form oxyanions mobile at high pH such as vanadium (V). The high ionic strength of the waters and calcium enrichment also leads to waters highly supersaturated with calcium carbonate. Trace contaminant concentrations are strongly positively correlated, and concentrations generally diminish with increased flow rate suggesting the key source of metals in the system is the highly alkaline groundwater draining from the slag mounds. Some contaminants (notably Cr and ammonium) increase with high flow suggesting sources related to urban runoff and drainage from combined sewer overflows into one of the catchments. Loading estimates instream show that many of the contaminants (e.g. Al, V and Zn) are rapidly attenuated in secondary calcium carbonate-dominated deposits that precipitate vigorously on the streambeds with rates of up to 250 g CaCO3/m2/day. These secondary sinks limit the mobility of many contaminants in the water column, while concentrations in secondary deposits are relatively low given the rapid rates at which Ca is also attenuated. Long-term trend analysis showed modest declines in calcium and alkalinity over

  17. The reversal of fortunes: trends in county mortality and cross-county mortality disparities in the United States.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Majid Ezzati

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Counties are the smallest unit for which mortality data are routinely available, allowing consistent and comparable long-term analysis of trends in health disparities. Average life expectancy has steadily increased in the United States but there is limited information on long-term mortality trends in the US counties This study aimed to investigate trends in county mortality and cross-county mortality disparities, including the contributions of specific diseases to county level mortality trends.We used mortality statistics (from the National Center for Health Statistics [NCHS] and population (from the US Census to estimate sex-specific life expectancy for US counties for every year between 1961 and 1999. Data for analyses in subsequent years were not provided to us by the NCHS. We calculated different metrics of cross-county mortality disparity, and also grouped counties on the basis of whether their mortality changed favorably or unfavorably relative to the national average. We estimated the probability of death from specific diseases for counties with above- or below-average mortality performance. We simulated the effect of cross-county migration on each county's life expectancy using a time-based simulation model. Between 1961 and 1999, the standard deviation (SD of life expectancy across US counties was at its lowest in 1983, at 1.9 and 1.4 y for men and women, respectively. Cross-county life expectancy SD increased to 2.3 and 1.7 y in 1999. Between 1961 and 1983 no counties had a statistically significant increase in mortality; the major cause of mortality decline for both sexes was reduction in cardiovascular mortality. From 1983 to 1999, life expectancy declined significantly in 11 counties for men (by 1.3 y and in 180 counties for women (by 1.3 y; another 48 (men and 783 (women counties had nonsignificant life expectancy decline. Life expectancy decline in both sexes was caused by increased mortality from lung cancer, chronic obstructive

  18. Trends in skiing injury type and rates in Australia. A review of 22,261 injuries over 27 years in the Snowy Mountains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherry, E; Fenelon, L

    1991-10-21

    To show the trends in the rate and type of skiing injuries in Australia. A retrospective analysis of skiing injuries in the Snowy Mountains from 1962 to 1988. All injuries were seen and treated at the Ski Injury Clinic in Perisher Valley. A total of 22,261 injuries were seen over this 27 year period (data for 1963, 1964, 1966, 1977, 1978, 1981 and 1982 were missing). Injured skiers were treated at the Clinic with a small number sent to main centres for tertiary care. The overall injury rate (1962-1988) and the specific injury rate for six subgroups of injuries (1974-1988) were calculated. The overall injury rate declined dramatically over this period. The incidence of tibial fractures, ankle injuries and lacerations also declined. Upper body injuries continue to rise although this trend was not statistically significant. There was a statistically significant increase in knee injuries. The trends reported here are similar to those overseas except that the incidence of thumb injuries has not changed in Australia. The changes in the rates of lacerations, and tibial and ankle injuries can be related to improvements in ski bindings and boots.

  19. Conflict over non-partitioned resources may explain between-species differences in declines: the anthropogenic competition hypothesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higginson, Andrew D

    2017-01-01

    Human alterations of habitats are causing declines in many species worldwide. The extent of declines varies greatly among closely related species, for often unknown reasons that must be understood in order to maintain biodiversity. An overlooked factor is that seasonally breeding species compete for nest sites, which are increasingly limited in many anthropogenically degraded environments. I used evolutionary game theory to predict the outcome of competition between individuals that differ in their competitive ability and timing of nesting. A range of species following evolutionarily stable strategies can co-exist when there are sufficient nest sites, but my model predicts that a reduction in nest site availability has greater impacts on late-nesting species, especially the stronger competitors, whereas early-nesting, stronger species decline only slightly. These predictions are supported by data on 221 bird and 43 bumblebee species worldwide. Restoration and provision of nest sites should be an urgent priority in conservation efforts. More broadly, these results indicate a new ecological principle of potentially widespread importance: rapid reductions in the abundance of resources for which species' preferences have not diversified will result in unprecedented conflicts that reduce the potential for species co-existence. Understanding the causes of species declines is crucial to preventing the losses. Whilst much work on species vulnerability shows broad scale effects, an enduring mystery is the variation in population trends between closely related species. I combined evolutionary modelling with three global-scale long-term data sets to reveal that competition for scarce nest sites causes variation in declines. The impact of the loss of nest sites on differential declines among closely related species from very different taxa indicates a new ecological principle of widespread importance: the effect of habitat degradation on competition among species. A lack of

  20. Trends in US Pediatric Drowning Hospitalizations, 1993–2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aitken, Mary E.; Robbins, James M.; Baker, Susan P.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND: In the United States, drowning is the second leading cause of unintentional injury death in children aged 1 to 19 years, accounting for nearly 1100 deaths per year. Although a decline in overall fatal drowning deaths among children has been noted, national trends and disparities in pediatric drowning hospitalizations have not been reported. METHODS: To describe trends in pediatric drowning in the United States and provide national benchmarks for state and regional comparisons, we analyzed existing data (1993–2008) from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, the largest, longitudinal, all-payer inpatient care database in the United States. Children aged 0 to 19 years were included. Annual rates of drowning-related hospitalizations were determined, stratified by age, gender, and outcome. RESULTS: From 1993 to 2008, the estimated annual incidence rate of pediatric hospitalizations associated with drowning declined 49% from 4.7 to 2.4 per 100 000 (P drowning hospitalization declined from 0.5 (95% confidence interval, 0.4–0.7) deaths per 100 000 in 1993–1994 to 0.3 (95% confidence interval, 0.2–0.4) in 2007–2008 (P drowning have decreased over the past 16 years. Our study provides national estimates of pediatric drowning hospitalization that can be used as benchmarks to target and assess prevention strategies. PMID:22250031

  1. Projecting range-wide sun bear population trends using tree cover and camera-trap bycatch data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorraine Scotson

    Full Text Available Monitoring population trends of threatened species requires standardized techniques that can be applied over broad areas and repeated through time. Sun bears Helarctos malayanus are a forest dependent tropical bear found throughout most of Southeast Asia. Previous estimates of global population trends have relied on expert opinion and cannot be systematically replicated. We combined data from 1,463 camera traps within 31 field sites across sun bear range to model the relationship between photo catch rates of sun bears and tree cover. Sun bears were detected in all levels of tree cover above 20%, and the probability of presence was positively associated with the amount of tree cover within a 6-km2 buffer of the camera traps. We used the relationship between catch rates and tree cover across space to infer temporal trends in sun bear abundance in response to tree cover loss at country and global-scales. Our model-based projections based on this "space for time" substitution suggested that sun bear population declines associated with tree cover loss between 2000-2014 in mainland southeast Asia were ~9%, with declines highest in Cambodia and lowest in Myanmar. During the same period, sun bear populations in insular southeast Asia (Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei were projected to have declined at a much higher rate (22%. Cast forward over 30-years, from the year 2000, by assuming a constant rate of change in tree cover, we projected population declines in the insular region that surpassed 50%, meeting the IUCN criteria for endangered if sun bears were listed on the population level. Although this approach requires several assumptions, most notably that trends in abundance across space can be used to infer temporal trends, population projections using remotely sensed tree cover data may serve as a useful alternative (or supplement to expert opinion. The advantages of this approach is that it is objective, data-driven, repeatable, and it requires that

  2. Changes in Everyday and Digital Health Technology Use Among Seniors in Declining Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, David M; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Linder, Jeffrey A

    2018-03-14

    U.S. seniors' digital health and everyday technology use when their health declines are unknown. Longitudinal cohort using the National Health and Aging Trends Study, a nationally representative, annually administered sample of community-dwelling Medicare beneficiaries (n = 4,037). We used difference-in-differences to assess the adjusted difference (AD) in technology use from 2011 to 2014 between those with and without health declines. Health decline measures included new-onset dementia; new-onset depression; decreases in activities of daily living (ADLs), short physical performance battery (SPPB), grip strength, and self-reported health; relocation to nursing facility; increased hospitalizations; and new-onset comorbidity. Digital health included use of the Internet to research health conditions, contact clinicians, fill prescriptions, and address insurance matters. Between 2011 and 2014, seniors experiencing health decline used various digital health technologies at low absolute rates (range: 1%-20%). Between 2011 and 2014, use of everyday technology decreased significantly among seniors with new-onset dementia (from 73% to 51%; AD, -26%), decreased ADLs (from 76% to 67%; AD, -10%), decreased SPPB (from 88% to 86%; AD, -3%), and relocation to a nursing facility (from 49% to 22%; AD, -31%) compared to seniors without comparable decline (all p seniors with new-onset probable dementia (from 9% to 4%; AD, -6%) and decreased SPPB (from 24% to 25%; AD, -4%; all p senior experiences predicts technology use, which may allow better targeting of digital health to specific seniors. Seniors with new dementia, relocation to a nursing home, and declining physical performance seem especially poor candidates for technology interventions.

  3. Trends in Sea Ice Cover, Sea Surface Temperature, and Chlorophyll Biomass Across a Marine Distributed Biological Observatory in the Pacific Arctic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frey, K. E.; Grebmeier, J. M.; Cooper, L. W.; Wood, C.; Panday, P. K.

    2011-12-01

    The northern Bering and Chukchi Seas in the Pacific Arctic Region (PAR) are among the most productive marine ecosystems in the world and act as important carbon sinks, particularly during May and June when seasonal sea ice-associated phytoplankton blooms occur throughout the region. Recent dramatic shifts in seasonal sea ice cover across the PAR should have profound consequences for this seasonal phytoplankton production as well as the intimately linked higher trophic levels. In order to investigate ecosystem responses to these observed recent shifts in sea ice cover, the development of a prototype Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) is now underway in the PAR. The DBO is being developed as an internationally-coordinated change detection array that allows for consistent sampling and monitoring at five spatially explicit biologically productive locations across a latitudinal gradient: (1) DBO-SLP (south of St. Lawrence Island (SLI)), (2) DBO-NBS (north of SLI), (3) DBO-SCS (southern Chukchi Sea), (4) DBO-CCS (central Chukchi Sea), and (5) DBO-BCA (Barrow Canyon Arc). Standardized measurements at many of the DBO sites were made by multiple research cruises during the 2010 and 2011 pilot years, and will be expanded with the development of the DBO in coming years. In order to provide longer-term context for the changes occurring across the PAR, we utilize multi-sensor satellite data to investigate recent trends in sea ice cover, chlorophyll biomass, and sea surface temperatures for each of the five DBO sites, as well as a sixth long-term observational site in the Bering Strait. Satellite observations show that over the past three decades, trends in sea ice cover in the PAR have been heterogeneous, with significant declines in the Chukchi Sea, slight declines in the Bering Strait region, but increases in the northern Bering Sea south of SLI. Declines in the persistence of seasonal sea ice cover in the Chukchi Sea and Bering Strait region are due to both earlier sea

  4. Differing long term trends for two common amphibian species (Bufo bufo and Rana temporaria in alpine landscapes of Salzburg, Austria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Kyek

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the population trends of two widespread European anuran species: the common toad (Bufo bufo and the common frog (Rana temporaria. The basis of this study is data gathered over two decades of amphibian fencing alongside roads in the Austrian state of Salzburg. Different statistical approaches were used to analyse the data. Overall average increase or decrease of each species was estimated by calculating a simple average locality index. In addition the statistical software TRIM was used to verify these trends as well as to categorize the data based on the geographic location of each migration site. The results show differing overall trends for the two species: the common toad being stable and the common frog showing a substantial decline over the last two decades. Further analyses based on geographic categorization reveal the strongest decrease in the alpine range of the species. Drainage and agricultural intensification are still ongoing problems within alpine areas, not only in Salzburg. Particularly in respect to micro-climate and the availability of spawning places these changes appear to have a greater impact on the habitats of the common frog than the common toad. Therefore we consider habitat destruction to be the main potential reason behind this dramatic decline. We also conclude that the substantial loss of biomass of a widespread species such as the common frog must have a severe, and often overlooked, ecological impact.

  5. Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

    2013-09-01

    To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

  6. Trend differences in men and women in rural and urban U.S. settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cepeda-Benito, A; Doogan, N J; Redner, R; Roberts, M E; Kurti, A N; Villanti, A C; Lopez, A A; Quisenberry, A J; Stanton, C A; Gaalema, D E; Keith, D R; Parker, M A; Higgins, S T

    2018-04-05

    Smoking prevalence is declining at a slower rate in rural than urban settings in the United States (U.S.), and known predictors of smoking do not readily account for this trend difference. Given that socioeconomic and psychosocial determinants of health disparities accumulate in rural settings and that life-course disadvantages are often greater in women than men, we examined whether smoking trends are different for rural and urban men and women. We used yearly cross-sectional data (n = 303,311) from the U.S. National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) from 2007 through 2014 to compare cigarette smoking trends in men and women across rural and urban areas. Current smoking status was modelled using logistic regression controlling for confounding risk factors. Regression derived graphs predicting unadjusted prevalence estimates and 95% confidence bands revealed that whereas the smoking trends of rural men, urban men, and urban women significantly declined from 2007 to 2014, the trend for rural women was flat. Controlling for demographic, socioeconomic and psychosocial predictors of smoking did not explain rural women's significantly different trend from those of the other three groups. Rural women lag behind rural men, urban men and urban women in decreasing smoking, a health disparity finding that supports the need for tobacco control and regulatory policies and interventions that are more effective in reducing smoking among rural women. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Decline of the counterculture in the USA in the second half of XX century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. M. Barchiy

    2014-06-01

    Counterculture failed and began to decline, but the great amount of its values and ideals were dissolved in a general culture and were perceived by American society, including the pacifist, anti­racist, feminist, green, anti­globalization youth trends. There appeared the new forms of youth social movements that were created on the sample of beatniks, hippies or the «New Left».

  8. Traditional Christian Belief and Belief in the Supernatural : Diverging Trends in the Netherlands Between 1979 and 2005?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaf, Nan Dirk de; Grotenhuis, Manfred te

    2008-01-01

    Is there an ongoing decline in religious beliefs in the Netherlands? Using cross-sectional data from 1979 up to 2005, we focus on traditional Christian faith and belief in the supernatural; the literature suggests that they undergo diverging trends. We first describe these trends using the Social

  9. Traditional Christian belief and belief in the supernatural: Diverging trends in the Netherlands between 1979 and 2005?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Graaf, N.D. de; Grotenhuis, H.F. te

    2008-01-01

    Is there an ongoing decline in religious beliefs in the Netherlands? Using cross-sectional data from 1979 up to 2005, we focus on traditional Christian faith and belief in the supernatural; the literature suggests that they undergo diverging trends. We first describe these trends using the Social

  10. A Sustained Decline in Postmenopausal Hormone Use: Results From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprague, Brian L.; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Cronin, Kathleen A.

    2012-01-01

    Objective Short-term declines in postmenopausal hormone use were observed following the Women’s Health Initiative trial results in 2002. While concerns about the trial’s generalizability have been expressed, long-term trends in hormone use in a nationally representative sample have not been reported. We sought to evaluate national trends in the prevalence of hormone use, and assess variation by type of formulation and patient characteristics. Methods We examined postmenopausal hormone use during 1999–2010 using cross-sectional data on 10,107 women aged 40 years and older in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Results In 1999–2000, the prevalence of oral postmenopausal hormone use was 22.4% (95% CI: 19.0, 25.8) overall, 16.8% (95% CI: 14.2, 19.3) for estrogen only, and 5.2% (95% CI: 3.6, 6.8) for estrogen plus progestin. A sharp decline in use of all formulations occurred in 2003–2004, when the overall prevalence dropped to 11.9% (95% CI: 9.6, 14.2). This decline was initially limited to non-Hispanic whites; use among non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics did not decline substantially until 2005–2006. Hormone use continued to decline through 2009–2010 across all patient demographic groups, with the current prevalence now at 4.7% (95% CI: 3.3, 6.1) overall, 2.9% (95% CI: 2.1, 3.7) for estrogen only, and 1.5% (95% CI: 0.5, 2.5) for estrogen plus progestin. Patient characteristics currently associated with hormone use include history of hysterectomy, non-Hispanic white race or ethnicity, and income. Conclusions Postmenopausal hormone use in the United States has declined in a sustained fashion to very low levels across a wide variety of patient subgroups. PMID:22914469

  11. The importance of age-related decline in forest NPP for modeling regional carbon balances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaehle, Sönke; Sitch, Stephen; Prentice, I Colin; Liski, Jari; Cramer, Wolfgang; Erhard, Markus; Hickler, Thomas; Smith, Benjamin

    2006-08-01

    We show the implications of the commonly observed age-related decline in aboveground productivity of forests, and hence forest age structure, on the carbon dynamics of European forests in response to historical changes in environmental conditions. Size-dependent carbon allocation in trees to counteract increasing hydraulic resistance with tree height has been hypothesized to be responsible for this decline. Incorporated into a global terrestrial biosphere model (the Lund-Potsdam-Jena model, LPJ), this hypothesis improves the simulated increase in biomass with stand age. Application of the advanced model, including a generic representation of forest management in even-aged stands, for 77 European provinces shows that model-based estimates of biomass development with age compare favorably with inventory-based estimates for different tree species. Model estimates of biomass densities on province and country levels, and trends in growth increment along an annual mean temperature gradient are in broad agreement with inventory data. However, the level of agreement between modeled and inventory-based estimates varies markedly between countries and provinces. The model is able to reproduce the present-day age structure of forests and the ratio of biomass removals to increment on a European scale based on observed changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 concentration, forest area, and wood demand between 1948 and 2000. Vegetation in European forests is modeled to sequester carbon at a rate of 100 Tg C/yr, which corresponds well to forest inventory-based estimates.

  12. Spatio-temporal declines in Philippine fisheries and its implications to coastal municipal fishers’ catch and income

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan A Anticamara

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The problem of overexploitation in global fisheries is well-recognized. However, published assessment of fisheries spatio-temporal trends at the national scale is lacking for many high biodiversity developing countries, which is problematic since fisheries management is often implemented at the local or national levels. Here, we present the long-term spatio-temporal trends of Philippine fisheries production based on the landed national fish catch data (1980-2012 and fishers’ interviews. We found that the total Philippine fish catch volume (Metric Tons MT of most capture fisheries throughout the country has either stagnated or declined over the last three decades. The decline is even more prominent when evaluating fisheries trends at the provincial level, suggesting spatial serial depletion of the country’s fisheries. In contrast, the total Philippine fish catch value (US Dollars US$ or Philippine Pesos PHP has continued to increase over time, despite the declining fish catch volume. However, local municipal fishers are experiencing both low fish catch and income, contributing to observable poverty in many coastal communities in the Philippines. The various stakeholders of Philippine fisheries need to recognize the depleted state of Philippine fisheries, and learn from various experiences of collapsed and recovered fisheries from around the world, in order to recover the Philippines’ capture fisheries. Lessons from the literature on collapsed fisheries offer the following options for recovery: (1 regulate or reduce fisheries exploitation and other human activities impacting the fisheries to allow fisheries to rebuild or recover, (2 enforce effective networks of marine reserves, (3 engage fishers, consumers, and other stakeholders in fisheries management, (4 improve fisheries science, monitoring, and management capacities, and (5 provide alternative livelihood, skills, and improved education to fishers and their families.

  13. New Tobacco Trends (A Cup of Health with CDC)

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-07-21

    Cigarette smoking in the United States has been on a steady decline over the past 50 years. However, new tobacco products are becoming increasingly popular. In this podcast, Dr. Linda Neff discusses the dangerous new trends in tobacco use.  Created: 7/21/2016 by MMWR.   Date Released: 7/21/2016.

  14. On the roles of circulation and aerosols in the decline of mist and dense fog in Europe over the last 30 years

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. van Oldenborgh

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Fog and mist are meteorological phenomena that have significant contributions to temperature variations. Understanding and predicting them is also crucial for transportation risk management. It has been shown that low visibility phenomena over Europe have been declining over the past three decades. The trends in mist and haze have been correlated to atmospheric aerosol trends. However, dense fog has not received yet such focus. The goal of this paper is to examine the roles of synoptic atmospheric circulation and aerosol content on the trends of dense fog. We show that sulphur emission trends are spatially correlated with visibility trends, with a maximum correlation when visibility is between 1 km and 10 km. We find that atmospheric dynamics overall contributes up to 40% of the variability of the frequency of fog occurrences. This contribution is spatially variable and highly depends on the topography and the season, with higher values in the winter. The observed long-term circulation changes do not contribute much to the trends in low visibility found in the data. This process is illustrated on three stations (De Bilt, Zürich Airport and Potsdam for which a long-term visibility data and a thorough meteorological description are available. We conclude that to properly represent fog in future climate simulations, it is necessary to include realistic representations of aerosol emissions and chemistry, land surface properties and atmospheric dynamics.

  15. Interpreting Gas Production Decline Curves By Combining Geometry and Topology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewing, R. P.; Hu, Q.

    2014-12-01

    Shale gas production forms an increasing fraction of domestic US energy supplies, but individual gas production wells show steep production declines. Better understanding of this production decline would allow better economic forecasting; better understanding of the reasons behind the decline would allow better production management. Yet despite these incentives, production declines curves remain poorly understood, and current analyses range from Arps' purely empirical equation to new sophisticated approaches requiring multiple unavailable parameters. Models often fail to capture salient features: for example, in log-log space many wells decline with an exponent markedly different from the -0.5 expected from diffusion, and often show a transition from one decline mode to another. We propose a new approach based on the assumption that the rate-limiting step is gas movement from the matrix to the induced fracture network. The matrix is represented as an assemblage of equivalent spheres (geometry), with low matrix pore connectivity (topology) that results in a distance-dependent accessible porosity profile given by percolation theory. The basic theory has just 2 parameters: the sphere size distribution (geometry), and the crossover distance (topology) that characterizes the porosity distribution. The theory is readily extended to include e.g. alternative geometries and bi-modal size distributions. Comparisons with historical data are promising.

  16. Decline of Monarch Butterflies Overwintering in Mexico- Is the Migratory Phenomenon at Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brower, Lincoln; Taylor, Orley R.; Williams, Ernest H.; Slayback, Daniel; Zubieta, Raul R.; Ramirez, M. Isabel

    2012-01-01

    1.During the 2009-2010 overwintering season and following a 15-year downward trend, the total area in Mexico occupied by the eastern North American population of overwintering monarch butterflies reached an all-time low. Despite an increase, it remained low in 2010-2011. 2. Although the data set is small, the decline in abundance is statistically significant using both linear and exponential regression models. 3. Three factors appear to have contributed to reduce monarch abundance: degradation of the forest in the overwintering areas; the loss of breeding habitat in the United States due to the expansion ofGM herbicide-resistant crops, with consequent loss of milkweed host plants, as well as continued land development; and severe weather. 4. This decline calls into question the long-term survival of the monarchs' migratory phenomenon

  17. Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J Kroll

    small-to-moderate declines or increases in paired territory numbers due to uncertainty in our estimates. Collectively, we conclude spotted owl pair populations on this landscape managed for commercial timber production appear to be more stable and do not show sharp year-over-year declines seen in both managed and unmanaged landscapes with substantial barred owl colonization and persistence. Continued monitoring of reproductive territories can determine whether recent declines continue or whether trends reverse as they have on four previous occasions. Experimental investigations to evaluate changes to spotted owl occupancy dynamics when barred owl populations are reduced or removed entirely can confirm the generality of this conclusion.

  18. Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroll, Andrew J; Jones, Jay E; Stringer, Angela B; Meekins, Douglas J

    2016-01-01

    -to-moderate declines or increases in paired territory numbers due to uncertainty in our estimates. Collectively, we conclude spotted owl pair populations on this landscape managed for commercial timber production appear to be more stable and do not show sharp year-over-year declines seen in both managed and unmanaged landscapes with substantial barred owl colonization and persistence. Continued monitoring of reproductive territories can determine whether recent declines continue or whether trends reverse as they have on four previous occasions. Experimental investigations to evaluate changes to spotted owl occupancy dynamics when barred owl populations are reduced or removed entirely can confirm the generality of this conclusion.

  19. Did the Decline in Social Connections Depress Americans' Happiness?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartolini, Stefano; Bilancini, Ennio; Pugno, Maurizio

    2013-01-01

    During the last 30 years US citizens experienced, on average, a decline in reported happiness, social connections, and confidence in institutions. We show that a remarkable portion of the decrease in happiness is predicted by the decline in social connections and confidence in institutions. We carry out our investigation in three steps. First, we…

  20. Water, energy and agricultural landuse trends at Shiroro hydropower station and environs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adegun, Olubunmi; Ajayi, Olalekan; Badru, Gbolahan; Odunuga, Shakirudeen

    2018-02-01

    The study examines the interplay among water resources, hydropower generation and agricultural landuse at the Shiroro hydropower station and its environs, in north-central Nigeria. Non-parametric trend analysis, hydropower footprint estimation, reservoir performance analysis, change detection analysis, and inferential statistics were combined to study the water-energy and food security nexus. Results of Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator for the period 1960 to 2013 showed a declining rainfall trend at Jos, around River Kaduna headwaters at -2.6 mm yr-1, while rainfall at Kaduna and Minna upstream and downstream of the reservoir respectively showed no trend. Estimates of hydropower footprint varied between 130.4 and 704.1 m3 GJ-1 between 1995 and 2013. Power generation reliability and resilience of the reservoir was 31.6 and 38.5 % respectively with year 2011 being the most vulnerable and least satisfactory. In addition to poor reliability and resilience indices, other challenges militating against good performance of hydropower generation includes population growth and climate change issues as exemplified in the downward trend observed at the headwaters. Water inflow and power generation shows a weak positive relationship with correlation coefficient (r) of 0.48, indicating less than optimal power generation. Total area of land cultivated increased from 884.59 km2 in 1986 prior to the commissioning of the hydropower station to 1730.83 km2 in 2016 which signifies an increased contribution of the dam to ensuring food security. The reality of reducing upstream rainfall amount coupled with high water footprint of electricity from the reservoir, therefore requires that a long term roadmap to improve operational coordination and management have to be put in place.

  1. Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

    2014-01-01

    The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

  2. What to Do About Canada's Declining Math Scores?

    OpenAIRE

    Anna Stokke

    2015-01-01

    The declining performance of Canadian students on international math assessments should worry Canadians and their provincial governments. Strong mathematics knowledge is required for success in the workforce, and early achievement in math is one of the best predictors of later academic success and future career options. Between 2003 and 2012, all but two Canadian provinces showed statistically significant declines in math scores on international exams administered by the Organization for Econ...

  3. Comparative Longterm Mortality Trends in Cancer vs. Ischemic Heart Disease in Puerto Rico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, David; Pericchi, Luis R; Mattei, Hernando; Zevallos, Juan C

    2017-06-01

    Although contemporary mortality data are important for health assessment and planning purposes, their availability lag several years. Statistical projection techniques can be employed to obtain current estimates. This study aimed to assess annual trends of mortality in Puerto Rico due to cancer and Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), and to predict shorterm and longterm cancer and IHD mortality figures. Age-adjusted mortality per 100,000 population projections with a 50% interval probability were calculated utilizing a Bayesian statistical approach of Age-Period-Cohort dynamic model. Multiple cause-of-death annual files for years 1994-2010 for Puerto Rico were used to calculate shortterm (2011-2012) predictions. Longterm (2013-2022) predictions were based on quinquennial data. We also calculated gender differences in rates (men-women) for each study period. Mortality rates for women were similar for cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period, but changed substantially in the projected 2018-2022 period. Cancer mortality rates declined gradually overtime, and the gender difference remained constant throughout the historical and projected trends. A consistent declining trend for IHD historical annual mortality rate was observed for both genders, with a substantial changepoint around 2004-2005 for men. The initial gender difference of 33% (80/100,00 vs. 60/100,000) in mortality rates observed between cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period increased to 300% (60/100,000 vs. 20/100,000) for the 2018-2022 period. The APC projection model accurately projects shortterm and longterm mortality trends for cancer and IHD in this population: The steady historical and projected cancer mortality rates contrasts with the substantial decline in IHD mortality rates, especially in men.

  4. Trends in Rocky Mountain amphibians and the role of beaver as a keystone species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossack, Blake R.; Gould, William R.; Patla, Debra A.; Muths, Erin L.; Daley, Rob; Legg, Kristin; Corn, P. Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Despite prevalent awareness of global amphibian declines, there is still little information on trends for many widespread species. To inform land managers of trends on protected landscapes and identify potential conservation strategies, we collected occurrence data for five wetland-breeding amphibian species in four national parks in the U.S. Rocky Mountains during 2002–2011. We used explicit dynamics models to estimate variation in annual occupancy, extinction, and colonization of wetlands according to summer drought and several biophysical characteristics (e.g., wetland size, elevation), including the influence of North American beaver (Castor canadensis). We found more declines in occupancy than increases, especially in Yellowstone and Grand Teton national parks (NP), where three of four species declined since 2002. However, most species in Rocky Mountain NP were too rare to include in our analysis, which likely reflects significant historical declines. Although beaver were uncommon, their creation or modification of wetlands was associated with higher colonization rates for 4 of 5 amphibian species, producing a 34% increase in occupancy in beaver-influenced wetlands compared to wetlands without beaver influence. Also, colonization rates and occupancy of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas) and Columbia spotted frogs (Rana luteiventris) were ⩾2 times higher in beaver-influenced wetlands. These strong relationships suggest management for beaver that fosters amphibian recovery could counter declines in some areas. Our data reinforce reports of widespread declines of formerly and currently common species, even in areas assumed to be protected from most forms of human disturbance, and demonstrate the close ecological association between beaver and wetland-dependent species.

  5. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  6. Trends in mortality due to ischemic heart disease in the municipality of Goiania, Brazil, during the years between 1980 and 1994

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suzana Alves de Moraes

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To analyze the trends of specific, standardized coefficients of mortality due to ischemic heart disease according to sex and age during the years 1980 and 1994 in the municipality of Goiania, GO, Brazil. METHODS: Data on deaths were retrieved from the Information on Mortality System of the Ministry of Health; population data were obtained from the Foundation of the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics (IBGE. The trends of the specific coefficients were analyzed by triennia of the historical series, including individuals of both sexes from 25 years of age on, partitioned into 6 age groups of ten years intervals. The population data corresponding to the year 1980 were used as the standard for the calculation of each age group coefficient. Analyses were carried out by straight linear regression. RESULTS: Coefficients were greater for males in each triennium of the series and increased with age in both sexes. The study of the trends of the specific age coefficients of both sexes revealed a stable pattern of evolution up to the age of 65-74 years (P>0.05. From 75 years on, a clear-cut decline in mortality due to ischemic heart disease was shown by both sexes. The standardized coefficients also showed a significant decline (p<=0.05. CONCLUSION: The municipality of Goiânia is at present in a stage of epidemiological transition similar to that of developed countries, even though the observed decline is predominantly influenced by the mortality of older individuals (75 years of age or older.

  7. The Dynamic contribution of chronic conditions to temporal trends in disability among U.S. adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shih-Fan; Beck, Audrey N; Finch, Brian K

    2016-04-01

    Although evidence has shown that U.S. late-life disability has been declining, studies have also suggested that there has been an increase in chronic diseases between 1984 and 2007. To further illuminate these potentially contradictory trends, we explicate how the contribution of chronic conditions changes across four common types of disability (ADL, IADL, mobility disability, and functional limitations) by age (A), period (P), and birth cohorts (C) among adults aged 20 and above. Our data came from seven cross-sectional waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). We utilize a cross-classified random effect model (CCREM) to simultaneously estimate age, period, and cohort trends for each disability. Each chronic condition was sequentially then simultaneously added to our base models (sociodemographics only). Reductions in predicted probability from the base model were then calculated for each chronic condition by each temporal dimension (A/P/C) to assess the contribution of each chronic condition. There was increasing age-based contribution of chronic conditions to all disabilities. The period-based contribution remained quite stagnant across years while cohort-based contributions showed a continual decline for recent cohorts. Arthritis showed the greatest contribution to disability of all types which was followed by obesity. Cancer was the least important contributor to disabilities. Although chronic conditions are becoming less disabling across recent cohorts, other competing risk factors might suggest prevailing causes of disability. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Trends in Consumption of Solid Fats, Added Sugars, Sodium, Sugar-Sweetened Beverages, and Fruit from Fast Food Restaurants and by Fast Food Restaurant Type among US Children, 2003–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin D. Rehm

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Energy intakes from fast food restaurants (FFRs have declined among US children. Less is known about the corresponding trends for FFR-sourced solid fats, added sugars, and sodium, and food groups of interest, such as fruit and sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs. Using data from a single 24-h dietary recall among 12,378 children aged 4–19 years from four consecutive cycles of the nationally-representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 2003–2010 a custom algorithm segmented FFRs into burger, pizza, sandwich, Mexican cuisine, chicken, Asian cuisine, fish restaurants, and coffee shops. There was a significant population-wide decline in FFR-sourced solid fats (−32 kcal/day, p-trend < 0.001, added sugars (−16 kcal/day; p-trend < 0.001, SSBs (−0.12 servings (12 fluid ounces or 355 mL/day; p-trend < 0.001, and sodium (−166 mg/day; p-trend < 0.001. Declines were observed when restricted to fast food consumers alone. Sharp declines were observed for pizza restaurants; added sugars, solid fats, and SSBs declined significantly from burger restaurants. Fruit did not change for fast food restaurants overall. Temporal analyses of fast food consumption trends by restaurant type allow for more precise monitoring of the quality of children’s diets than can be obtained from analyses of menu offerings. Such analyses can inform public health interventions and policy measures.

  9. Modelling the Contributions of Malaria, HIV, Malnutrition and Rainfall to the Decline in Paediatric Invasive Non-typhoidal Salmonella Disease in Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feasey, Nicholas A; Everett, Dean; Faragher, E Brian; Roca-Feltrer, Arantxa; Kang'ombe, Arthur; Denis, Brigitte; Kerac, Marko; Molyneux, Elizabeth; Molyneux, Malcolm; Jahn, Andreas; Gordon, Melita A; Heyderman, Robert S

    2015-01-01

    Nontyphoidal Salmonellae (NTS) are responsible for a huge burden of bloodstream infection in Sub-Saharan African children. Recent reports of a decline in invasive NTS (iNTS) disease from Kenya and The Gambia have emphasised an association with malaria control. Following a similar decline in iNTS disease in Malawi, we have used 9 years of continuous longitudinal data to model the interrelationships between iNTS disease, malaria, HIV and malnutrition. Trends in monthly numbers of childhood iNTS disease presenting at Queen's Hospital, Blantyre, Malawi from 2002 to 2010 were reviewed in the context of longitudinal monthly data describing malaria slide-positivity among paediatric febrile admissions, paediatric HIV prevalence, nutritional rehabilitation unit admissions and monthly rainfall over the same 9 years, using structural equation models (SEM). Analysis of 3,105 iNTS episodes identified from 49,093 blood cultures, showed an 11.8% annual decline in iNTS (p malnutrition on the prevalence of iNTS disease. When these data were smoothed to eliminate seasonal cyclic changes, these associations remained strong and there were additional significant effects of HIV prevalence. These data suggest that the overall decline in iNTS disease observed in Malawi is attributable to multiple public health interventions leading to reductions in malaria, HIV and acute malnutrition. Understanding the impacts of public health programmes on iNTS disease is essential to plan and evaluate interventions.

  10. Past and future trends in concentrations of sulphur and nitrogen compounds in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hole, Lars R.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Ruoho-Airola, Tuija

    2009-01-01

    Recent trends in nitrogen and sulphur compounds in air and precipitation from a range of Arctic monitoring stations are presented, with seasonal data from the late 70s to 2004 or 2005. Earlier findings of declining sulphur concentrations are confirmed for most stations, while the pattern is less...... clear for reduced and oxidized nitrogen. In fact there are positive trends for nitrogen compounds in air at several stations. Acidity is generally reduced at many stations while the precipitation amount is either increasing or stable. Variability of sulphate concentrations in air for the period 1991......-2000 is reasonably well reproduced at most stations using an Eulerian, hemispherical model. Results for nitrogen compounds are weaker. Scenario studies show that even if large sulphur emission reductions take place in important source regions in South-East Asia in the coming decades, only small changes in Arctic...

  11. Trends in young-adult mortality between the 1990s and the 2000s in urban and non-urban areas in Belgium: the role of a changing educational composition in overall mortality decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Grande, Hannelore; Vandenheede, Hadewijch; Deboosere, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    This study probes into the evolution in young-adult mortality according to urbanisation degree in Belgium and moves beyond mere description through decomposing mortality trends into changes in educational distribution and in overall mortality. As most of young-adult deaths are preventable and an enormous cost and loss to society, this study addresses a highly relevant public-health topic. Individual record-linked data between the Belgian censuses of 1991 and 2001 and register data on death and emigrations are used. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), directly standardized to the European Population of 2013 are calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CI), as well as a decomposition measure to pinpoint the proportion mortality change attributable to differences in educational composition over time. The young-adult population consists of 2,458,637 19-34 year-olds in 1991, with 11,898 deaths in a five-year period, and is slightly smaller in 2001 with 2,174,368 young adults and 8138 deaths. Overall, there is a positive evolution towards lower young-adult mortality, with the strongest declines in men living in large urban areas (ASMR from 149.0 [CI 142.1-155.8] in 1991-1996 to 94.6 [88.9-100.3] in 2001-2006). Decomposition analysis shows that the decrease in male mortality in non-urban areas over time is largely due to changes in the educational composition, while mortality in urban areas mainly decreases because of a decline in overall mortality. In urban areas all educational groups have benefitted over time. This clearly demonstrates that living and growing up in an urban area does not always have to imply a health penalty, but can have health advantages as well. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Trends in prevalence of overweight and obesity in danish infants, children and adolescents--are we still on a plateau?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Schmidt Morgen

    Full Text Available After the worldwide steep increase in child and adolescent overweight and obesity during the last decades, there is now evidence of a levelling off in the prevalence in many countries in the Western world.To examine whether there still is a plateau in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Danish children and adolescents, or whether the prevalence is decreasing or rising again.THE TRENDS IN THE PREVALENCE RATES WERE BASED ON THREE DATA SETS PROVIDING COMPARABLE REPEATED ESTIMATES: 1 the Danish Health Visitors Child Health Database (DHVCHD with measurements on infant and childhood height and weight from 2002 to 2011 (n up to 39,984, 2 the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC with maternal reports of measured infant and childhood height and weight from 1998 to 2010 (n up to 56,826 and 3 the Danish part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey (HBSC with self-reported information on adolescent height and weight from the years 2002 to 2010 (n = 16,557. Overweight and obesity were categorized according to WHO growth standards. Trends were assessed by repeated point estimates and linear regression analyses providing regression coefficients for changes in per cent per year with 95% confidence intervals (CI.The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity for infants, children and adolescents showed a mixed pattern of decline, stability and increase (ranging from -1.10 through 0.29 per cent per year with CI's from -3.10 through 2.37. Overall, there were no consistent statistically significant trends upwards or downwards, although some significant downward trends in childhood and adolescence were observed.This study, based on data from 1998 through 2011, showed that the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity among Danish infants, children and adolescents were largely still on a plateau with tendencies for a decline among children and adolescents.

  13. The population decline of Gyps vultures in India and Nepal has slowed since veterinary use of diclofenac was banned.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vibhu Prakash

    Full Text Available Populations of oriental white-backed vulture (Gyps bengalensis, long-billed vulture (Gyps indicus and slender-billed vulture (Gyps tenuirostris crashed during the mid-1990s throughout the Indian subcontinent. Surveys in India, initially conducted in 1991-1993 and repeated in 2000, 2002, 2003 and 2007, revealed that the population of Gyps bengalensis had fallen by 2007 to 0.1% of its numbers in the early 1990s, with the population of Gyps indicus and G. tenuirostris combined having fallen to 3.2% of its earlier level. A survey of G. bengalensis in western Nepal indicated that the size of the population in 2009 was 25% of that in 2002. In this paper, repeat surveys conducted in 2011 were analysed to estimate recent population trends. Populations of all three species of vulture remained at a low level, but the decline had slowed and may even have reversed for G. bengalensis, both in India and Nepal. However, estimates of the most recent population trends are imprecise, so it is possible that declines may be continuing, though at a significantly slower rate. The degree to which the decline of G. bengalensis in India has slowed is consistent with the expected effects on population trend of a measured change in the level of contamination of ungulate carcasses with the drug diclofenac, which is toxic to vultures, following a ban on its veterinary use in 2006. The most recent available information indicates that the elimination of diclofenac from the vultures' food supply is incomplete, so further efforts are required to fully implement the ban.

  14. Chinese culture and fertility decline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C; Jia, S

    1992-01-01

    Coale has suggested that cultural factors exert a significant influence on fertility reduction; countries in the "Chinese cultural circle" would be the first to show fertility decline. In China, the view was that traditional Chinese culture contributed to increased population. This paper examines the nature of the relationship between Chinese culture and fertility. Attention was directed to a comparison of fertility rates of developing countries with strong Chinese cultural influence and of fertility within different regions of China. Discussion was followed by an explanation of the theoretical impact of Chinese culture on fertility and direct and indirect beliefs and practices that might either enhance or hinder fertility decline. Emigration to neighboring countries occurred after the Qing dynasty. Fertility after the 1950s declined markedly in Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, and mainland China: all countries within the Chinese cultural circle. Other countries within the Chinese circle which have higher fertility, yet lower fertility than other non-Chinese cultural countries, are Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. Within China, regions with similar fertility patterns are identified as coastal regions, central plains, and mountainous and plateau regions. The Han ethnic group has lower fertility than that of ethnic minorities; regions with large Han populations have lower fertility. Overseas Chinese in East Asian countries also tend to have lower fertility than their host populations. Chinese culture consisted of the assimilation of other cultures over 5000 years. Fertility decline was dependent on the population's desire to limit reproduction, favorable social mechanisms, and availability of contraception: all factors related to economic development. Chinese culture affects fertility reduction by affecting reproductive views and social mechanisms directly, and indirectly through economics. Confucianism emphasizes collectivism, self

  15. Secular trends in age at menarche among Chinese girls from 24 ethnic minorities, 1985 to 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yi; Ma, Jun; Agardh, Anette; Lau, Patrick W C; Hu, Peijin; Zhang, Bing

    2015-01-01

    Declining age at menarche has been observed in many countries. In China, a decrease of 4.5 months per decade in the average age at menarche among the majority Han girls has recently been reported. However, the trends in age at menarche among ethnic minority girls over the past 25 years remain unknown. To compare the differences in median age at menarche among girls aged 9-18 years across 24 ethnic minorities in 2010 and to estimate the trends in age at menarche in different ethnic minorities from 1985 to 2010. We used data from six cross-sectional Chinese National Surveys on Students' Constitution and Health (1985, 1991, 1995, 2000, 2005, and 2010). The median age at menarche was estimated by using probit analysis. In 2010, the ethnic minorities with the earliest age at menarche were the Koreans (11.79 years), Mongolians (12.44 years), and Zhuang (12.52 years). The three ethnic minorities with the latest age at menarche were the Sala (14.32 years), Yi (13.74 years), and Uighurs (13.67 years). From 1985 to 2010, the age at menarche declined in all 24 minority groups. The Lisu, Kazakh, and Korean minorities showed the largest reductions in age at menarche by 1.79 (pminorities showed the smallest reductions, with age at menarche declining by only 0.06 (p>0.05), 0.15 (p>0.05), and 0.15 (p>0.05) years, respectively, in the same period. A large variation in age at menarche was observed among different ethnic minorities, with the earliest age at menarche found among Korean girls. A reduction in the average age at menarche appeared among most of the ethnic minorities over time, and the largest decrease was observed in Lisu, Kazakh, and Korean girls. Thus, health education should focus on targeting the specific needs of each ethnic minority group.

  16. Gastric cancer mortality trends in Spain, 1976-2005, differences by autonomous region and sex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    García-Esquinas, Esther; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Pollán, Marina; Boldo, Elena; Fernández-Navarro, Pablo; Lope, Virginia; Vidal, Enrique; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Aragonés, Nuria

    2009-01-01

    Gastric cancer is the second leading cause of oncologic death worldwide. One of the most noteworthy characteristics of this tumor's epidemiology is the marked decline reported in its incidence and mortality in almost every part of the globe in recent decades. This study sought to describe gastric cancer mortality time trends in Spain's regions for both sexes. Mortality data for the period 1976 through 2005 were obtained from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Cases were identified using the International Classification of Diseases 9 th and 10 th revision (codes 151 and C16, respectively). Crude and standardized mortality rates were calculated by geographic area, sex, and five-year period. Joinpoint regression analyses were performed to ascertain whether changes in gastric cancer mortality trends had occurred, and to estimate the annual percent change by sex and geographic area. Gastric cancer mortality decreased across the study period, with the downward trend being most pronounced in women and in certain regions situated in the interior and north of mainland Spain. Across the study period, there was an overall decrease of 2.90% per annum among men and 3.65% per annum among women. Generally, regions in which the rate of decline was sharpest were those that had initially registered the highest rates. However, the rate of decline was not constant throughout the study period: joinpoint analysis detected a shift in trend for both sexes in the early 1980s. Gastric cancer mortality displayed in both sexes a downward trend during the study period, both nationally and regionally. The different trend in rates in the respective geographic areas translated as greater regional homogeneity in gastric cancer mortality by the end of the study period. In contrast, rates in women fell more than did those in men. The increasing differences between the sexes could indicate that some risk factors may be modifying the sex-specific pattern of this tumor

  17. Trends in contraceptive use and distribution of births with demographic risk factors in Ethiopia: a sub-national analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Shiferaw, Solomon; Abdullah, Muna; Mekonnen, Yared; Ma?ga, Abdoulaye; Akinyemi, Akanni; Amouzou, Agbessi; Friedman, Howard; Barros, Aluisio J. D.; Hounton, Sennen

    2015-01-01

    Background: Evidence shows that family planning contributes to the decline in child mortality by decreasing the proportions of births that are considered high risk. The main objective of the present analysis was to examine the trends in use of modern contraceptives and their relationship with total fertility rate (TFR) and distribution of births by demographic risk factors as defined by mother’s age, birth interval, and birth order at the sub-national level in Ethiopia.Design: Analyses used d...

  18. Seasonality and trend in blood lead levels of New York State children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Talbot Thomas O

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Environmental exposure to lead remains a significant health problem for children. The costs of lead exposure in children are estimated to be considerably more than other childhood diseases of environmental origin. While long-term trends in blood lead levels (BLLs among children are declining, seasonal variation persists. Cross-sectional studies have found a peak in summer months. Part of this variation may be due to increased exposure to lead paint on window sills and through increased contact with soils containing lead during the summer. The current study represents the largest published population-based study on seasonality and trends in the BLLs of children to date. In addition, the results offer a comparison of recent data on seasonality of BLLs in New York State children, to studies conducted over the past three decades. Methods 262,687 New York State children born between 1994 and 1997 were screened for blood lead within 2 weeks of their first or second birthdays. Time series analyses of blood lead data from these children were conducted to study the seasonality and trends of BLLs. Results Children's blood lead values showed a distinct seasonal cycle on top of a long-term decreasing trend. The geometric mean BLL declined by about 24% for children born between 1994 and 1997. The prevalence of elevated BLLs in two-year-olds was almost twice that in one-year-olds over the time period. Nearly twice as many children had elevated BLLs in the late summer compared to late winter/early spring. In this and previous cross-sectional studies, the amount of seasonality as a proportion of the mean ranged between 15% and 30%. Conclusion Pediatricians should be aware of the seasonality of BLLs. For example, if a two-year-old receives a borderline result during the winter, it is possible that the levels would have been higher if he had been tested during the summer. However, physicians should continue to screen children at their normally

  19. Decadal trends in global CO emissions as seen by MOPITT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Y.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Broquet, G.; Fortems-Cheiney, A.; Pison, I.; Saunois, M.

    2015-12-01

    Negative trends of carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations are observed in the recent decade by both surface measurements and satellite retrievals over many regions of the globe, but they are not well explained by current emission inventories. Here, we analyse the observed CO concentration decline with an atmospheric inversion that simultaneously optimizes the two main CO sources (surface emissions and atmospheric hydrocarbon oxidations) and the main CO sink (atmospheric hydroxyl radical OH oxidation). Satellite CO column retrievals from Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT), version 6, and surface observations of methane and methyl chloroform mole fractions are assimilated jointly for the period covering 2002-2011. Compared to the model simulation prescribed with prior emission inventories, trends in the optimized CO concentrations show better agreement with that of independent surface in situ measurements. At the global scale, the atmospheric inversion primarily interprets the CO concentration decline as a decrease in the CO emissions (-2.3 % yr-1), more than twice the negative trend estimated by the prior emission inventories (-1.0 % yr-1). The spatial distribution of the inferred decrease in CO emissions indicates contributions from western Europe (-4.0 % yr-1), the United States (-4.6 % yr-1) and East Asia (-1.2 % yr-1), where anthropogenic fuel combustion generally dominates the overall CO emissions, and also from Australia (-5.3 % yr-1), the Indo-China Peninsula (-5.6 % yr-1), Indonesia (-6.7 % y-1), and South America (-3 % yr-1), where CO emissions are mostly due to biomass burning. In contradiction with the bottom-up inventories that report an increase of 2 % yr-1 over China during the study period, a significant emission decrease of 1.1 % yr-1 is inferred by the inversion. A large decrease in CO emission factors due to technology improvements would outweigh the increase in carbon fuel combustions and may explain this decrease. Independent

  20. Trend of Antiretroviral therapy interruption in a clinic cohort of HIV ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Over subsequent years with increasing expertise coupled with more patient education and public awareness it is expected that these interruptions would decline. We therefore determined the trend in ART interruptions in a clinic cohort of HIV-1 infected children attending the Jos University Teaching Hospital (JUTH).

  1. Trends in funding for research on pain: a report on the National Institutes Of Health grant awards over the years 2003 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradshaw, David H; Empy, Court; Davis, Phillip; Lipschitz, David; Dalton, Peter; Nakamura, Yoshio; Chapman, C Richard

    2008-12-01

    In recent years, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) has experienced unprecedented reductions in its customary annual budget increases. Consequently, researchers, health care policy planners and others have a pressing need for accurate information on NIH funding patterns. We created a unique and objective system for compiling, classifying, and analyzing data on NIH grant awards and funding for research on pain, nausea, and dyspnea using naïve observers, cross-validation by multiple raters, and face validation by experts. We present results of our method and analyses for the period from 2003 to 2007. Following a 12% increase from 2003 to 2004, funding for pain research fell by 9.4% per year on average over the next 3 years. The percent of the total NIH budget going to support pain research increased to 0.78% in 2004 but fell to 0.61% in 2007. A piecewise regression model confirmed the declining trend represented a significant fit to the data (R(2)=0.98, p=0.024). Separate breakdowns by Institutes showed similar patterns. Analyses of nausea and dyspnea research support revealed small but steady increases over the same period. Declining support for pain research disproportionate to decreases in the NIH budget signals a need for measures to promote funding for meritorious applications. Results of 5 year trends in numbers of grants and funding for research in pain, nausea, and dyspnea by the NIH show overall declines for pain but slight increases for nausea and dyspnea. Declining support for pain research that exceeds the reductions in the total NIH budget signals a need for measures to increase pain research funding.

  2. Adolescent motherhood in Bangladesh: Trends and determinants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Islam, Mohammad Mainul; Islam, Md Kamrul; Hasan, Mohammad Sazzad; Hossain, Mohammad Bellal

    2017-01-01

    While studies on fertility and contraceptives issues are available, until recently adolescent motherhood has not received enough attention among policy makers in understanding adolescent motherhood in Bangladesh. We aimed to examine the trends and determinants of adolescent motherhood among women aged 15-49 years. For trend analysis we used all the 7 waves of Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS, 1993-2014) data but for multivariate analysis 4 waves of BDHS (2004-2014). Two separate analyses were carried out on ever married women aged 15-49: (1) teenage girls aged 15-19 and (2) adult women aged 20 and above. The prevalence of adolescent motherhood had declined to a slower pace from 1993 to2014 (from 33.0% to 30.8%). Lower spousal age gap and higher education were found to be associated with lower likelihood of adolescent motherhood both among teenage girls [OR 0.447 (0.374-0.533)] and adult women [OR 0.451 (0.420-0.484)]. Teenage girls in the poorest wealth quintile [OR 1.712 [1.350-2.173] were more likely to experience adolescent motherhood than the richest wealth quintile. Teenage girls who had no education were found to have 2.76 times higher odds of adolescent motherhood than their counterparts who had higher than secondary education. Concerning the time effect, the odds of adolescent motherhood among adult women was found to decline overtime. Despite substantial decrease in total fertility rate in Bangladesh adolescent motherhood is still highly prevalent though declining from 1993 to 2014. Social policies including those addressing poverty, ensuring greater emphasis on education for women; and adolescent mothers in rural areas are needed.

  3. Modern population trends in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abul-basher, M M

    1985-01-01

    Population growth trends in Bangladesh in the 1871-1981 period were analyzed, with emphasis on fertility and mortality differentials, to provide a basis for population planning. Following proclamation of British Imperial Rule in 1857, mortality rates in Bangladesh began to decline as a result of preventive measures against natural disasters such as draught and famine, but the fertility rate remained unaltered. The demographic pattern was unstable over time, reflecting the impact of the influenza epidemic of 1918-19, war, migration, and economic development. Population growth accelerated greatly during the 1961-74 period, when industrialization emerged and job opportunities were created in the urban centers. Economic hardship, food shortages, and the introduction of family planning curbed urban growth drastically and total growth to some extent in 1974-81. On the average, growth has been higher in the Dhaka and Chittagong Divisions of Bangladesh than in the Khulna and Rajshahi Divisions. Differences in population growth among the regions are attributable largely to internal and external migration. The regression polynomial model best fits past population trends in Bangladesh and can reproduce the observed population by 99.60%. This polynomial is most suitable for graduation and prediction of population trends.

  4. Government takes decline as nations diversify terms to attract investment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meurs, A.P. van; Seck, A.

    1997-01-01

    A new review of 324 fiscal systems in 159 countries indicates that the trend of declines in government take has continued during the last 2 years. An earlier OGJ article concluded that government take had declined considerably during the previous decade in response to an increased availability of acreage. The fiscal system rating is based on eight economic yardsticks. They are: rate of return; net present value per barrel; ability to absorb geological risk; attractiveness of incremental exploration investments; attractiveness of incremental development investments; government take; bonanza economics; and the degree of front-end loading of the fiscal system. Based on these criteria the fiscal systems are rated, based on a point system, from the most attractive (five star) terms to the least attractive (one star). Table 1 provides an overview of the rating and ranking of 50 of the most interesting fiscal systems. Figure 1 provides the government take and corporate take for the systems listed in Table 1, based on a weighted average of 12 fields. The paper discusses attractive, tough, and diversifying terms, and regional competition

  5. Detection and attribution of nitrogen runoff trend in China's croplands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Xikang; Zhan, Xiaoying; Zhou, Feng; Yan, Xiaoyuan; Gu, Baojing; Reis, Stefan; Wu, Yali; Liu, Hongbin; Piao, Shilong; Tang, Yanhong

    2018-03-01

    Reliable detection and attribution of changes in nitrogen (N) runoff from croplands are essential for designing efficient, sustainable N management strategies for future. Despite the recognition that excess N runoff poses a risk of aquatic eutrophication, large-scale, spatially detailed N runoff trends and their drivers remain poorly understood in China. Based on data comprising 535 site-years from 100 sites across China's croplands, we developed a data-driven upscaling model and a new simplified attribution approach to detect and attribute N runoff trends during the period of 1990-2012. Our results show that N runoff has increased by 46% for rice paddy fields and 31% for upland areas since 1990. However, we acknowledge that the upscaling model is subject to large uncertainties (20% and 40% as coefficient of variation of N runoff, respectively). At national scale, increased fertilizer application was identified as the most likely driver of the N runoff trend, while decreased irrigation levels offset to some extent the impact of fertilization increases. In southern China, the increasing trend of upland N runoff can be attributed to the growth in N runoff rates. Our results suggested that increased SOM led to the N runoff rate growth for uplands, but led to a decline for rice paddy fields. In combination, these results imply that improving management approaches for both N fertilizer use and irrigation is urgently required for mitigating agricultural N runoff in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Long-term decline of the Amazon carbon sink.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brienen, R J W; Phillips, O L; Feldpausch, T R; Gloor, E; Baker, T R; Lloyd, J; Lopez-Gonzalez, G; Monteagudo-Mendoza, A; Malhi, Y; Lewis, S L; Vásquez Martinez, R; Alexiades, M; Álvarez Dávila, E; Alvarez-Loayza, P; Andrade, A; Aragão, L E O C; Araujo-Murakami, A; Arets, E J M M; Arroyo, L; Aymard C, G A; Bánki, O S; Baraloto, C; Barroso, J; Bonal, D; Boot, R G A; Camargo, J L C; Castilho, C V; Chama, V; Chao, K J; Chave, J; Comiskey, J A; Cornejo Valverde, F; da Costa, L; de Oliveira, E A; Di Fiore, A; Erwin, T L; Fauset, S; Forsthofer, M; Galbraith, D R; Grahame, E S; Groot, N; Hérault, B; Higuchi, N; Honorio Coronado, E N; Keeling, H; Killeen, T J; Laurance, W F; Laurance, S; Licona, J; Magnussen, W E; Marimon, B S; Marimon-Junior, B H; Mendoza, C; Neill, D A; Nogueira, E M; Núñez, P; Pallqui Camacho, N C; Parada, A; Pardo-Molina, G; Peacock, J; Peña-Claros, M; Pickavance, G C; Pitman, N C A; Poorter, L; Prieto, A; Quesada, C A; Ramírez, F; Ramírez-Angulo, H; Restrepo, Z; Roopsind, A; Rudas, A; Salomão, R P; Schwarz, M; Silva, N; Silva-Espejo, J E; Silveira, M; Stropp, J; Talbot, J; ter Steege, H; Teran-Aguilar, J; Terborgh, J; Thomas-Caesar, R; Toledo, M; Torello-Raventos, M; Umetsu, R K; van der Heijden, G M F; van der Hout, P; Guimarães Vieira, I C; Vieira, S A; Vilanova, E; Vos, V A; Zagt, R J

    2015-03-19

    Atmospheric carbon dioxide records indicate that the land surface has acted as a strong global carbon sink over recent decades, with a substantial fraction of this sink probably located in the tropics, particularly in the Amazon. Nevertheless, it is unclear how the terrestrial carbon sink will evolve as climate and atmospheric composition continue to change. Here we analyse the historical evolution of the biomass dynamics of the Amazon rainforest over three decades using a distributed network of 321 plots. While this analysis confirms that Amazon forests have acted as a long-term net biomass sink, we find a long-term decreasing trend of carbon accumulation. Rates of net increase in above-ground biomass declined by one-third during the past decade compared to the 1990s. This is a consequence of growth rate increases levelling off recently, while biomass mortality persistently increased throughout, leading to a shortening of carbon residence times. Potential drivers for the mortality increase include greater climate variability, and feedbacks of faster growth on mortality, resulting in shortened tree longevity. The observed decline of the Amazon sink diverges markedly from the recent increase in terrestrial carbon uptake at the global scale, and is contrary to expectations based on models.

  7. 2001-2012 trends on air quality in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Querol, X; Alastuey, A; Pandolfi, M; Reche, C; Pérez, N; Minguillón, M C; Moreno, T; Viana, M; Escudero, M; Orio, A; Pallarés, M; Reina, F

    2014-08-15

    This study aims at interpreting the 2001-2012 trends of major air pollutants in Spain, with a major focus on evaluating their relationship with those of the national emission inventories (NEI) and policy actions. Marked downward concentration trends were evidenced for PM10, PM2.5 and CO. Concentrations of NO2 and NOx also declined but in a lesser proportion at rural and traffic sites. At rural sites O3 has been kept constant, whereas it clearly increased at urban and industrial sites. Comparison of the air quality trends and major inflection points with those from NEIs, the National Energy Consumption and the calendar of the implementation of major policy actions allowed us to clearly identify major benefits of European directives on power generation and industrial sources (such as the Large Combustion Plants and the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Directives). This, together with a sharp 2007-2008 decrease of coal consumption has probably caused the marked parallel decline of SO2, NOx and for PM2.5 concentrations. Also the effect of the EURO 4 and 5 vehicle emission standards on decreasing emissions of PM and CO from vehicles is noticeable. The smooth decline in NO2-NOx levels is mostly attributed to the low efficiency of EURO 4 and 5 standards in reducing real life urban driving NO2 emissions. The low NOx decrease together with the complexity of the reactions of O3 formation is responsible for the constant O3 concentrations, or even the urban increase. The financial crisis has also contributed to the decrease of the ambient concentration of pollutants; however this caused a major reduction of the primary energy consumption from 2008 to 2009, and not from 2007 to 2008 when ambient air PM and SO2 sharply decreased. The meteorological influence was characterized by a 2008-2012 period favorable to the dispersion of pollutants when compared to the 2001-2007. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Are our forests declining. Why

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leygonie, R.

    1991-01-01

    This article first presents the historical background of recent events popularized under the names: acid rains, forests declines. The first major crisis was soil and lake acidifications in Scandinavian countries, then a fast forest decay, first in Germany, in the early eighties, then in a number of European countries, including France. These phenomena were attributed to atmospheric pollutions, essentially acidic pollution. The consequences were drastic legislations in Germany, then the European Directive on large combustion plants (November 1988). Another consequence was the UNECE Convention on long range transport of pollutants (1979). Observations in the field on tree declines (loss of needles or leaves, abnormal yellowings, soil studies, etc.) and laboratory experiments showed that causes are very complex, involving the low quality of soils, abnormal droughts, presence of pollutants in atmosphere, mainly ozone [fr

  9. Incidence and mortality trends of gastric and colorectal cancers in Croatia, 1988-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirac, Iva; Šekerija, Mario; Šimunović, Iva; Zgaga, Lina; Vrdoljak, Danko Velimir; Kovačević, Dujo; Kuliš, Tomislav; Znaor, Ariana

    2012-01-01

    Aim To estimate the incidence and mortality trends of gastric and colorectal cancers in Croatia between 1988 and 2008. Methods Incidence data for the period 1988-2008 were obtained from the Croatian National Cancer Registry. The number of deaths from gastric and colorectal cancers was obtained from the World Health Organization mortality database. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to describe changes in trends by sex. Results Gastric cancer incidence rates declined steadily during the study period, with estimated annual percent change (EAPC) of -3.2% for men and -2.8% for women. Mortality rates in men decreased, with EAPC of -5.0% from 1988-1995 and -2.5% from 1995-2008. Mortality rates in women decreased, with EAPC of -3.2% throughout the study period. For colorectal cancer in men, joinpoint analysis revealed increasing trends of both incidence (EAPC 2.9%) and mortality (EAPC 2.1%).In women, the increase in incidence was not significant, but mortality in the last 15 years showed a significant increase of 1.1%. Conclusion The incidence and mortality trends of gastric cancer in Croatia are similar to other European countries, while the still increasing colorectal cancer mortality calls for more efficient prevention and treatment. PMID:22522990

  10. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel C; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; van Aalst, Maarten K; Kron, Wolfgang; Ward, Philip J

    2015-05-05

    The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low- and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

  11. Reevaluation of Stratospheric Ozone Trends From SAGE II Data Using a Simultaneous Temporal and Spatial Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damadeo, R. P.; Zawodny, J. M.; Thomason, L. W.

    2014-01-01

    This paper details a new method of regression for sparsely sampled data sets for use with time-series analysis, in particular the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II ozone data set. Non-uniform spatial, temporal, and diurnal sampling present in the data set result in biased values for the long-term trend if not accounted for. This new method is performed close to the native resolution of measurements and is a simultaneous temporal and spatial analysis that accounts for potential diurnal ozone variation. Results show biases, introduced by the way data is prepared for use with traditional methods, can be as high as 10%. Derived long-term changes show declines in ozone similar to other studies but very different trends in the presumed recovery period, with differences up to 2% per decade. The regression model allows for a variable turnaround time and reveals a hemispheric asymmetry in derived trends in the middle to upper stratosphere. Similar methodology is also applied to SAGE II aerosol optical depth data to create a new volcanic proxy that covers the SAGE II mission period. Ultimately this technique may be extensible towards the inclusion of multiple data sets without the need for homogenization.

  12. What explains uneven female labor force participation levels and trends in developing countries?

    OpenAIRE

    Klasen, Stephan

    2018-01-01

    Rapid fertility decline, a strong expansion of female education, and favorable economic conditions should have promoted female labor force participation in developing countries. Yet trends in female labor force participation (FLFP) have been quite heterogeneous, rising strongly in Latin America, stagnating in many other regions, while improvements were modest in the Middle East and female participation even fell in South Asia. These trends are inconsistent with secular theories such as the Fe...

  13. Urbanization effect on trends in sunshine duration in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available There is an ongoing debate on whether the observed decadal variations in surface solar radiation, known as dimming and brightening periods, are a large-scale or solely local phenomenon. We investigated this issue using long-term sunshine duration records from China, which experienced a rapid increase in urbanization during the past decades. Over the period 1960–2013, 172 pairs of urban and nearby rural stations were analyzed. Urban and rural sunshine duration trends show similar spatial patterns during a dimming phase (1960–1989 and a subsequent period during which trends were leveling off (1990–2013. This indicates that rather than local effects, the trends in sunshine duration are on more of a national or regional scale in China. Nevertheless, in the dimming phase, the declining rate of sunshine duration in rural areas is around two-thirds of that in urban areas. The ratio of rural to urban dimming generally increases from a minimum of 0.39 to a maximum of 0.87 with increasing indices of urbanization calculated based on the year 2013. It reaches a maximum when the urbanization level exceeds 50 %, the urban population exceeds 20 million, or the population density becomes higher than 250 person km−2. After the transition into the leveling-off period, sunshine duration trends are no longer significantly affected by urbanization. Meanwhile, the number of laws and regulations related to air pollution and investment in pollution treatment have been increasing in China.

  14. Analysis of temporal and spatial trends of hydro-climatic variables in the Wei River Basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Jing; Huang, Qiang; Chang, Jianxia; Liu, Dengfeng; Huang, Shengzhi; Shi, Xiaoyu

    2015-05-01

    The Wei River is the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China. The relationship between runoff and precipitation in the Wei River Basin has been changed due to the changing climate and increasingly intensified human activities. In this paper, we determine abrupt changes in hydro-climatic variables and identify the main driving factors for the changes in the Wei River Basin. The nature of the changes is analysed based on data collected at twenty-one weather stations and five hydrological stations in the period of 1960-2010. The sequential Mann-Kendall test analysis is used to capture temporal trends and abrupt changes in the five sub-catchments of the Wei River Basin. A non-parametric trend test at the basin scale for annual data shows a decreasing trend of precipitation and runoff over the past fifty-one years. The temperature exhibits an increase trend in the entire period. The potential evaporation was calculated based on the Penman-Monteith equation, presenting an increasing trend of evaporation since 1990. The stations with a significant decreasing trend in annual runoff mainly are located in the west of the Wei River primarily interfered by human activities. Regression analysis indicates that human activity was possibly the main cause of the decline of runoff after 1970. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  15. PENSION FUNDS EVOLUTION, REFORMS AND TRENDS IN SOUTHAFRICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nthabiseng Moleko

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a graphical and descriptive analysis of the historical trends ofthe South African pension fund sector in order to provide insights andunderstanding ofnon-banking finance. Using a combination of secondary data anda desk review of existing literature, we provide in-depth analysis of the differenttypes and number of pension funds, industry trends, policy reforms and legislativeframeworks enacted by theSouth African government for the development of thesector. The study identified the evolution of the pension fund industry to be in fourphases coinciding with different waves of industry policy reforms, namely: theinfancy phase (1911-1958; institutionalisation phase (1959-1984; separation andcontinued separation phase (1985-1994; and corporatisation and amalgamation(1995-2015 The industry growth analysis indicated that a compounded annualgrowth rate of 14 percent is the highest annual growth overthe past decade and thisgrowth exceeds the global market average of 6.5 percent over the same period. Theindustry trend analysis is indicative of an upward trend in terms of funds’membership with the trendline showing a steep rise to over 15 million membersfrom under 10 million memberships with the space of a decade. However, thenumber of pension funds operating in the industry has declined due to a steadymove towards umbrella funds. Although the South African pension fund industry isnot only movingin the right direction but also considered a beacon of successaround the world, there remains huge potential for growth of the sector. Therefore,maintaining sound regulatory policies and government interventions will continueto ensure that pension fundsare well managed and bad practices discouraged in thesector through the oversight functions of government regulatory institutions such asthe Pension Fund Registrar and Financial Services Board.

  16. Developing European conservation and mitigation tools for pollination services: approaches of the STEP (Status and Trends of European Pollinators) project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Potts, S.G.; Biesmeijer, J.C.; Bommarco, R.; Felicioli, A.; Fischer, M.; Jokinen, P.; Kleijn, D.; Klein, A.M.; Kunin, W.E.; Neumann, P.; Penev, L.D.; Petanidou, T.; Rasmont, P.; Roberts, S.P.M.; Smith, H.G.; Sorensen, P.B.; Steffan-Dewenter, I.; Vaissiere, B.E.; Vila, M.; Vujic, A.; Woyciechowski, M.; Zobel, M.; Settele, J.; Schweiger, O.

    2011-01-01

    Pollinating insects form a key component of European biodiversity, and provide a vital ecosystem service to crops and wild plants. There is growing evidence of declines in both wild and domesticated pollinators, and parallel declines in plants relying upon them. The STEP project (Status and Trends

  17. Fertility trends and net reproduction in Agincourt, rural South Africa, 1992-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garenne, Michel L; Tollman, Stephen M; Collinson, Mark A; Kahn, Kathleen

    2007-08-01

    To analyse trends in fertility rates and net reproduction rates in Agincourt, a rural area of South Africa located in the former homeland of Gazankulu near the Mozambican border. Trends are analysed in the context of widely available modern contraceptive methods and increasing HIV/AIDS. A health and demographic surveillance system has been in place since 1992, covering a population of approximately 70,000 persons, with an annual census update and comprehensive recording of births and deaths. It was complemented by a retrospective study of fertility at baseline. Retrospective and prospective data were used to calculate trends in fertility, survival, and net reproduction. When possible, they were compared with data from other censuses and surveys in the same ethnic group. The fertility transition has almost ended over a course of 25 years in Agincourt. The total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 6.0 in 1979 and 2.3 in 2004. Fertility declined in proportionate fashion in all age groups including adolescents in the recent period. The net reproduction rate (NRR) declined from 1.8 to 1.0 during the prospective period (1992-2004). At current rates of change in fertility and mortality, the NRR can be expected to reach 0.63 by the year 2010. The situation of a below-replacement fertility level is new for rural Africa, and is likely to have many demographic, economic and social implications. The population could decline in the country as a whole, and is nearly static in Agincourt because of negative migration flows balancing the small excess from natural increase.

  18. Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

    2017-11-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  19. Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

    2017-01-01

    Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

  20. Trends in Prevalence of Overweight and Obesity in Danish Infants, Children and Adolescents – Are We Still on a Plateau?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt Morgen, Camilla; Rokholm, Benjamin; Sjöberg Brixval, Carina; Schou Andersen, Camilla; Geisler Andersen, Lise; Rasmussen, Mette; Nybo Andersen, Anne-Marie; Due, Pernille; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.

    2013-01-01

    Background After the worldwide steep increase in child and adolescent overweight and obesity during the last decades, there is now evidence of a levelling off in the prevalence in many countries in the Western world. Aim To examine whether there still is a plateau in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in Danish children and adolescents, or whether the prevalence is decreasing or rising again. Methods The trends in the prevalence rates were based on three data sets providing comparable repeated estimates: 1) the Danish Health Visitors Child Health Database (DHVCHD) with measurements on infant and childhood height and weight from 2002 to 2011 (n up to 39,984), 2) the Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) with maternal reports of measured infant and childhood height and weight from 1998 to 2010 (n up to 56,826) and 3) the Danish part of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children survey (HBSC) with self-reported information on adolescent height and weight from the years 2002 to 2010 (n = 16,557). Overweight and obesity were categorized according to WHO growth standards. Trends were assessed by repeated point estimates and linear regression analyses providing regression coefficients for changes in per cent per year with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results The prevalence rates of overweight and obesity for infants, children and adolescents showed a mixed pattern of decline, stability and increase (ranging from -1.10 through 0.29 per cent per year with CI’s from -3.10 through 2.37). Overall, there were no consistent statistically significant trends upwards or downwards, although some significant downward trends in childhood and adolescence were observed. Conclusion This study, based on data from 1998 through 2011, showed that the prevalence rates of overweight and obesity among Danish infants, children and adolescents were largely still on a plateau with tendencies for a decline among children and adolescents. PMID:23894553

  1. Black Truffle Harvesting in Spanish Forests: Trends, Current Policies and Practices, and Implications on its Sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Barreda, Sergi; Forcadell, Ricardo; Sánchez, Sergio; Martín-Santafé, María; Marco, Pedro; Camarero, J. Julio; Reyna, Santiago

    2018-04-01

    The European black truffle is a mycorrhizal fungus native to Spanish Mediterranean forests. In most Spanish regions it was originally commercially harvested in the second half of the 20th century. Experts agree that wild truffle yields suffered a sharp decline during the 1970s and 1980s. However, official statistics for Spanish harvest are scarce and seemingly conflicting, and little attention has been paid to the regime for the exploitation of truffle-producing forests and its implications on the sustainability of this resource. Trends in harvest from 1969 to 2013 and current harvesting practices were analyzed as a case study, taking into account that Spain is a major truffle producer worldwide, but at the same time truffles have only recently been exploited. The available statistical sources, which include an increasing proportion of cultivated truffles since the mid-1990s, were explored, with estimates from Truffle Harvesters Federation showing higher consistency. Statistical sources were then compared with proxies for wild harvest (rents from truffle leases in public forests) to corroborate time trends in wild harvesting. Results suggest that black truffle production is recovering in recent years thanks to plantations, whereas wild harvest is still declining. The implications of Spanish legal and institutional framework on sustainability of wild truffle use are reviewed. In the current scenario, the decline of wild harvest is likely to continue and eventually make commercial harvesting economically unattractive, thus aggravating sustainability issues. Strengthening of property rights, rationalization of harvesting pressure, forest planning and involvement of public stakeholders are proposed as corrective measures.

  2. Effects of Helicobacter pylori infection and smoking on gastric cancer incidence in China: a population-level analysis of trends and projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldie, Sue J.; Kuntz, Karen M.; Ezzati, Majid

    2010-01-01

    Objective Although gastric cancer incidence is declining in China, trends may differ from historical patterns in developed countries. Our aim was to (1) retrospectively estimate the effects of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) and smoking on past gastric cancer incidence and (2) project how interventions on these two risk factors can reduce future incidence. Methods We used a population-based model of intestinal-type gastric cancer to estimate gastric cancer incidence between 1985 and 2050. Disease and risk factor data in the model were from community-based epidemiological studies and national prevalence surveys. Results Between 1985 and 2005, age-standardized gastric cancer incidence among Chinese men declined from 30.8 to 27.2 per 100,000 (12%); trends in H. pylori and smoking prevalences accounted for >30% of overall decline. If past risk factor trends continue, gastric cancer incidence will decline an additional 30% by 2050. Yet, annual cases will increase from 116,000 to 201,000 due to population growth and aging. Assuming that H. pylori prevention/treatment and tobacco control are implemented in 2010, the decline in gastric cancer incidence is projected to increase to 33% with universal H. pylori treatment for 20-year-olds, 42% for a hypothetical childhood H. pylori vaccine, and 34% for aggressive tobacco control. Conclusions The decline in gastric cancer incidence has been slower than in developed countries and will be offset by population growth and aging. Public health interventions should be implemented to reduce the total number of cases. PMID:19642005

  3. Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

    2014-04-01

    Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (pobesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  4. EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL TRENDS IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin CIUTACU

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with demographic trends in Romania and their influence on the labour market. In this context, unemployment and emigration are factors that play a significant role in the economy. The decline in employment weakens the social security system as employers and employees have to pay greater contributions. Also, the diminution in workforce and in the number of people in paid employment and the shortage of professionals working in specialized fields of health and education are issues requiring urgent clarification.

  5. Views of Physics Teachers on How to Address the Declining Enrolment in Physics at the University Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oon, Pey-Tee; Subramaniam, R.

    2010-01-01

    Teachers' views are worth hearing in order to get ideas on how to address the trend of declining enrolment in physics at the university level, which is regarded as a global problem. This study explores physics teachers' views on how to encourage more students to study physics at the university level. A sample of 166 physics teachers in Singapore…

  6. Primates decline rapidly in unprotected forests: evidence from a monitoring program with data constraints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovero, Francesco; Mtui, Arafat; Kitegile, Amani; Jacob, Philipo; Araldi, Alessandro; Tenan, Simone

    2015-01-01

    Growing threats to primates in tropical forests make robust and long-term population abundance assessments increasingly important for conservation. Concomitantly, monitoring becomes particularly relevant in countries with primate habitat. Yet monitoring schemes in these countries often suffer from logistic constraints and/or poor rigor in data collection, and a lack of consideration of sources of bias in analysis. To address the need for feasible monitoring schemes and flexible analytical tools for robust trend estimates, we analyzed data collected by local technicians on abundance of three species of arboreal monkey in the Udzungwa Mountains of Tanzania (two Colobus species and one Cercopithecus), an area of international importance for primate endemism and conservation. We counted primate social groups along eight line transects in two forest blocks in the area, one protected and one unprotected, over a span of 11 years. We applied a recently proposed open metapopulation model to estimate abundance trends while controlling for confounding effects of observer, site, and season. Primate populations were stable in the protected forest, while the colobines, including the endemic Udzungwa red colobus, declined severely in the unprotected forest. Targeted hunting pressure at this second site is the most plausible explanation for the trend observed. The unexplained variability in detection probability among transects was greater than the variability due to observers, indicating consistency in data collection among observers. There were no significant differences in both primate abundance and detectability between wet and dry seasons, supporting the choice of sampling during the dry season only based on minimizing practical constraints. Results show that simple monitoring routines implemented by trained local technicians can effectively detect changes in primate populations in tropical countries. The hierarchical Bayesian model formulation adopted provides a flexible

  7. Trends in asthma mortality in young people in southern Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chatkin, J M; Barreto, S M; Fonseca, N A; Gutiérrez, C A; Sears, M R

    1999-03-01

    Mortality from asthma increased and is now declining in some countries, but little is known about these trends in South America. We aimed to assess trends in mortality from asthma in southern Brazil in children and young adults. Death certificates of 425 people in the state of Rio Grande do Sul aged between 5 and 39 years in whom asthma was reported to be the underlying cause of death during the period 1970 to 1992 were reviewed. Population data were available in 10-year age groups. Testing for trends in mortality rates was conducted using linear and log-linear regression procedures. Asthma mortality rates in the age groups 5 to 19 and 20 to 39 years ranged between 0.04 and 0.39/100,000 and 0.28 to 0.75/100,000, respectively, and were nonuniformly distributed over the study period. The mean annual increase in rate in 5- to 19-year olds was +0.01 (95% CI 0.003 to 0.016), an average annual percentage increase of +6.8% (95% CI 3% to 11%), with a total increase of 352% between 1970 and 1992. This increase was not due to a shift in labeling from bronchitis to asthma. In the 20 to 39-year age group, asthma and bronchitis mortality rates showed no trend to increase or decrease. Asthma mortality in southern Brazil is low, but rose significantly between 1970 and 1992 in the 5 to 19-year age group. This trend differs from that found in other states of Brazil and several other Latin American countries. Reasons for this difference remain unclear.

  8. PEDIATRIC FITNESS: SECULAR TRENDS AND GEOGRAPHIC VARIABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grant R. Tomkinson

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available DESCRIPTION This book describes and discusses children's physical capacity in terms of aerobic and anaerobic power generation according to secular trends and geographic variability. PURPOSE To discuss the controversial issue of whether present day's children and adolescents are fitter than their equals of the past and whether they are fitter if they live in the more prosperous countries. AUDIENCE Pediatricians, medical practitioners, physical educators, exercise and/or sport scientists, exercise physiologists, personal trainers and graduate students in relevant fields will find this book helpful when dealing with contemporary trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. FEATURES The volume starts by examining the general picture on children fitness by the editors. The individual chapter's authors discuses the data gathered since the late 1950s on secular trends and geographic changeability in aerobic and anaerobic pediatric fitness performances of children and adolescents from 23 countries in Africa, Asia, Australasia, Europe, the Middle East and North America. There are chapters proposing that there is proof that there has been a world-wide decline in pediatric aerobic performance in recent decades, relative stability in anaerobic performance, and that the best performing children come from northern and central Europe. In final chapters possible causes to that end are considered, including whether weakening in aerobic performance are the result of distributional or widespread declines, and whether increases in obesity alone can explain the failure in aerobic performance. ASSESSMENT The editors have assembled a volume of Medicine and Sports Science that is necessary and essential reading for all who are interested in understanding and improving the fitness of children. The readers will find useful information in this book on secular trends and geographic variability in pediatric fitness. I believe, the book will serve as a first

  9. Conifer Decline and Mortality in Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.; Im, S.; Ranson, K.

    2015-12-01

    "Dark needle conifer" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica and Picea obovata) decline and mortality increase were documented in Russia during recent decades. Here we analyzed causes and scale of Siberian pine and fir mortality in Altai-Sayan and Baikal Lake Regions and West Siberian Plane based on in situdata and remote sensing (QuickBird, Landsat, GRACE). Geographically, mortality began on the margins of the DNC range (i.e., within the forest-steppe and conifer-broadleaf ecotones) and on terrain features with maximal water stress risk (narrow-shaped hilltops, convex steep south facing slopes, shallow well-drained soils). Within ridges, mortality occurred mainly along mountain passes, where stands faced drying winds. Regularly mortality was observed to decrease with elevation increase with the exception of Baikal Lake Mountains, where it was minimal near the lake shore and increased with elevation (up to about 1000 m a.s.l.). Siberian pine and fir mortality followed a drying trend with consecutive droughts since the 1980s. Dendrochronology analysis showed that mortality was correlated with vapor pressure deficit increase, drought index, soil moisture decrease and occurrence of late frosts. In Baikal region Siberian pine mortality correlated with Baikal watershed meteorological variables. An impact of previous year climate conditions on the current growth was found (r2 = 0.6). Thus, water-stressed trees became sensitive to bark beetles and fungi impact (including Polygraphus proximus and Heterobasidion annosum). At present, an increase in mortality is observed within the majority of DNC range. Results obtained also showed a primary role of water stress in that phenomenon with a secondary role of bark beetles and fungi attacks. In future climate with increased drought severity and frequency Siberian pine and fir will partly disappear from its current range, and will be substituted by drought-tolerant species (e.g., Pinus silvestris, Larix sibirica).

  10. Conflict Management in Declining School Districts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyd, William Lowe; Wheaton, Dennis R.

    1983-01-01

    Professional literature about managing conflicts associated with declining enrollments indicates the existing tension in this area. A research study shows that, while upper-middle class districts may succeed using a rational approach to decision making, lower class districts, for various reasons, may not. Special problems of urban districts are…

  11. International variations and trends in renal cell carcinoma incidence and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Znaor, Ariana; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Laversanne, Mathieu; Jemal, Ahmedin; Bray, Freddie

    2015-03-01

    Renal cell carcinoma (RCC) incidence rates are higher in developed countries, where up to half of the cases are discovered incidentally. Declining mortality trends have been reported in highly developed countries since the 1990s. To compare and interpret geographic variations and trends in the incidence and mortality of RCC worldwide in the context of controlling the future disease burden. We used data from GLOBOCAN, the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents series, and the World Health Organisation mortality database to compare incidence and mortality rates in more than 40 countries worldwide. We analysed incidence and mortality trends in the last 10 yr using joinpoint analyses of the age-standardised rates (ASRs). RCC incidence in men varied in ASRs (World standard population) from approximately 1/100,000 in African countries to >15/100,000 in several Northern and Eastern European countries and among US blacks. Similar patterns were observed for women, although incidence rates were commonly half of those for men. Incidence rates are increasing in most countries, most prominently in Latin America. Although recent mortality trends are stable in many countries, significant declines were observed in Western and Northern Europe, the USA, and Australia. Southern European men appear to have the least favourable RCC mortality trends. Although RCC incidence is still increasing in most countries, stabilisation of mortality trends has been achieved in many highly developed countries. There are marked absolute differences and opposing RCC mortality trends in countries categorised as areas of higher versus lower human development, and these gaps appear to be widening. Renal cell cancer is becoming more commonly diagnosed worldwide in both men and women. Mortality is decreasing in the most developed settings, but not in low- and middle-income countries, where access to and the availability of optimal therapies are likely to be limited. Copyright © 2014 European Association of

  12. Trouble in the aquatic world: How wildlife professionals are battling amphibian declines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olson, Deanna H.; Chestnut, Tara E.

    2014-01-01

    A parasitic fungus, similar to the one that caused the extinction of numerous tropical frog and toad species, is killing salamanders in Europe. Scientists first identified the fungus, Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans, in 2013 as the culprit behind the death of fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra) in the Netherlands (Martel et al. 2013) and are now exploring its potential impact to other species. Although the fungus, which kills the amphibians by infecting their skin, has not yet spread to the United States, researchers believe it’s only a matter of time before it does and, when that happens, the impact on salamander populations could be devastating (Martel et al. 2014).Reports of worldwide declines of amphibians began a quarter of a century ago (Blaustein & Wake 1990). Globally, some amphibian population declines occurred in the late 1950s and early 1960s, and declining trends continued in North America (Houlahan et al. 2000). In the earlier years, population declines were attributed primarily to overharvest due to unregulated supply of species such as the northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) for educational use (Dodd 2013). In later years, however, causes of declines were less evident. In 1989, herpetologists at the First World Congress of Herpetology traded alarming stories of losses across continents and in seemingly protected landscapes, making it clear that amphibian population declines were a “global phenomenon.” In response to these reports, in 1991, the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) established the Declining Amphibian Populations Task Force to better understand the scale and scope of global amphibian declines. Unfortunately, the absence of long-term monitoring data and targeted studies made it difficult for the task force to compile information.Today, according to AmphibiaWeb.org, there are 7,342 amphibian species in the world — double the number since the first alerts of declines — making the situation

  13. Trends in Job Satisfaction among German Nurses from 1990 to 2012

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alameddine, Mohamad; Bauer, Jan Michael; Richter, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Improving the job satisfaction of nurses is essential to enhance their productivity and retention and to improve patient care. Our aim was to analyse trends in German nurses' job satisfaction to enhance understanding of the nursing labour market and inform future policies. Methods: We...... used 1990–2012 German Socioeconomic Panel data for trends in nurses' job satisfaction. Comparisons were drawn with doctors, other health care workers, and employees in other sectors of employment. Analysis explored associations between job satisfaction trends and other aspects of employment......, such as whether full time or part time and pay. To account for fluctuations across the period of analysis, linear trends were generated using ordinary least squares. Results: Over 23 years, job satisfaction of German nurses underwent a steady and gradual decline, dropping by an average 7.5%, whereas...

  14. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivan Arismendi; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B. Dunham; Roy Haggerty

    2012-01-01

    Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream...

  15. Sperm counts may have declined in young university students in Southern Spain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mendiola, Jaime; Jørgensen, Niels; Mínguez-Alarcón, Lidia

    2013-01-01

    Several studies have investigated temporal trends in semen quality in Northern Europe, but none has examined this question in Southern Europe. A prior study conducted in Almeria Province (Southern Spain) reported higher sperm count and concentration among Spanish young men recruited from 2001......, Body mass index (BMI), presence of varicocoele and prenatal exposure to tobacco) to look for a birth-cohort effect over the combined study period (2001-2011). Sperm concentration and total sperm count declined significantly with year of birth in the pooled analysis (β = -0.04 and β = -0...

  16. Observed decrease in atmospheric mercury explained by global decline in anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanxu Zhang,; Daniel J. Jacob,; Hannah M. Horowitz,; Long Chen,; Helen M. Amos,; Krabbenhoft, David P.; Franz Slemr,; Vincent L. St. Louis,; Elsie M. Sunderland,

    2015-01-01

    Observations of elemental mercury (Hg0) at sites in North America and Europe show large decreases (∼1–2% y−1) from 1990 to present. Observations in background northern hemisphere air, including Mauna Loa Observatory (Hawaii) and CARIBIC (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container) aircraft flights, show weaker decreases (inventories indicating flat or increasing emissions over that period. However, the inventories have three major flaws: (i) they do not account for the decline in atmospheric release of Hg from commercial products; (ii) they are biased in their estimate of artisanal and small-scale gold mining emissions; and (iii) they do not properly account for the change in Hg0/HgII speciation of emissions from coal-fired utilities after implementation of emission controls targeted at SO2 and NOx. We construct an improved global emission inventory for the period 1990 to 2010 accounting for the above factors and find a 20% decrease in total Hg emissions and a 30% decrease in anthropogenic Hg0 emissions, with much larger decreases in North America and Europe offsetting the effect of increasing emissions in Asia. Implementation of our inventory in a global 3D atmospheric Hg simulation [GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System-Chemistry)] coupled to land and ocean reservoirs reproduces the observed large-scale trends in atmospheric Hg0 concentrations and in HgII wet deposition. The large trends observed in North America and Europe reflect the phase-out of Hg from commercial products as well as the cobenefit from SO2 and NOx emission controls on coal-fired utilities.

  17. Meeting the demand for crop production: the challenge of yield decline in crops grown in short rotations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Amanda J; Bending, Gary D; Chandler, David; Hilton, Sally; Mills, Peter

    2012-02-01

    There is a trend world-wide to grow crops in short rotation or in monoculture, particularly in conventional agriculture. This practice is becoming more prevalent due to a range of factors including economic market trends, technological advances, government incentives, and retailer and consumer demands. Land-use intensity will have to increase further in future in order to meet the demands of growing crops for both bioenergy and food production, and long rotations may not be considered viable or practical. However, evidence indicates that crops grown in short rotations or monoculture often suffer from yield decline compared to those grown in longer rotations or for the first time. Numerous factors have been hypothesised as contributing to yield decline, including biotic factors such as plant pathogens, deleterious rhizosphere microorganisms, mycorrhizas acting as pathogens, and allelopathy or autotoxicity of the crop, as well as abiotic factors such as land management practices and nutrient availability. In many cases, soil microorganisms have been implicated either directly or indirectly in yield decline. Although individual factors may be responsible for yield decline in some cases, it is more likely that combinations of factors interact to cause the problem. However, evidence confirming the precise role of these various factors is often lacking in field studies due to the complex nature of cropping systems and the numerous interactions that take place within them. Despite long-term knowledge of the yield-decline phenomenon, there are few tools to counteract it apart from reverting to longer crop rotations or break crops. Alternative cropping and management practices such as double-cropping or inter-cropping, tillage and organic amendments may prove valuable for combating some of the negative effects seen when crops are grown in short rotation. Plant breeding continues to be important, although this does require a specific breeding target to be identified. This

  18. Trends in vehicular emissions in China's mega cities from 1995 to 2005

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Haikun; Fu Lixin; Zhou Yu; Du Xuan; Ge Weihua

    2010-01-01

    Multiyear inventories of vehicular emissions in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou from 1995 through 2005 have been developed in this paper to study the vehicle emissions trends in China's mega cities during the past decade. The results show that the vehicular emissions of CO, HC, NO x and PM 10 have begun to slow their growth rates and perhaps even to decline in recent years due to the implementation of measures to control vehicular emissions in these cities. However, vehicular CO 2 emissions have substantially increased and still continue to grow due to little fuel economy improvement. Passenger cars and large vehicles (including heavy duty trucks and buses) are the major sources of vehicular CO 2 and CO emissions while large vehicles were responsible for nearly 70% and 80% of the vehicular NO x and PM 10 emissions in these mega cities. Motorcycles are also important contributors to vehicular emissions in Guangzhou and Shanghai. - The vehicular emissions (except CO 2 ) in China's mega cities have begun to slow their rates of growth and even to decline during the past decade.

  19. Shedding Light on the Controversy Surrounding the Temporal Decline in Human Sperm Counts: A Systematic Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcello Cocuzza

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We systematically examined the evidence of declining sperm counts and the hypothesis that an increased exposure to environmental pollutants is responsible for such decline. Search engines, including PUBMED, MEDLINE, EMBASE, BIOSIS, and Cochrane library, were used to identify epidemiologic studies published from 1985 to 2013. We concluded that there is no enough evidence to confirm a worldwide decline in sperm counts. Also, there seems to be no scientific truth of a causative role for endocrine disruptors in the temporal decline of sperm production. Such assumptions are based on few meta-analyses and retrospective studies, while other well-conducted researches could not confirm these findings. We acknowledge that difficult-to-control confounding factors in the highly variable nature of semen, selection criteria, and comparability of populations from different time periods in secular-trend studies, the quality of laboratory methods for counting sperm, and apparently geographic variations in semen quality are the main issues that complicate the interpretation of the available evidence. Owing to the importance of this subject and the uncertainties still prevailing, there is a need not only for continuing monitoring of semen quality, reproductive hormones, and xenobiotics, but also for a better definition of fecundity.

  20. Inventory trends in emerging market supply chains: Evidence from the Indian automotive industry

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    Haritha Saranga

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In the current paper, using a sample data of 58 firms consisting of automakers and auto component suppliers across a 14-year period, we study the factors contributing to efficient inventory management in the Indian automotive Industry. We use fixed effects regression models to document trends in inventory holdings over time and how this varies across inventory types and across tiers in the supply chain. Our results show that inventory holdings have declined differentially across tiers and across different types of inventories. We find tier-1 suppliers reduced all components of their inventories with the help of TQM and lean efforts.

  1. Spatial patterns of March and September streamflow trends in Pacific Northwest Streams, 1958-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Heejun; Jung, Il-Won; Steele, Madeline; Gannett, Marshall

    2012-01-01

    Summer streamflow is a vital water resource for municipal and domestic water supplies, irrigation, salmonid habitat, recreation, and water-related ecosystem services in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) in the United States. This study detects significant negative trends in September absolute streamflow in a majority of 68 stream-gauging stations located on unregulated streams in the PNW from 1958 to 2008. The proportion of March streamflow to annual streamflow increases in most stations over 1,000 m elevation, with a baseflow index of less than 50, while absolute March streamflow does not increase in most stations. The declining trends of September absolute streamflow are strongly associated with seven-day low flow, January–March maximum temperature trends, and the size of the basin (19–7,260 km2), while the increasing trends of the fraction of March streamflow are associated with elevation, April 1 snow water equivalent, March precipitation, center timing of streamflow, and October–December minimum temperature trends. Compared with ordinary least squares (OLS) estimated regression models, spatial error regression and geographically weighted regression (GWR) models effectively remove spatial autocorrelation in residuals. The GWR model results show spatial gradients of local R 2 values with consistently higher local R 2 values in the northern Cascades. This finding illustrates that different hydrologic landscape factors, such as geology and seasonal distribution of precipitation, also influence streamflow trends in the PNW. In addition, our spatial analysis model results show that considering various geographic factors help clarify the dynamics of streamflow trends over a large geographical area, supporting a spatial analysis approach over aspatial OLS-estimated regression models for predicting streamflow trends. Results indicate that transitional rain–snow surface water-dominated basins are likely to have reduced summer streamflow under warming scenarios

  2. POPULATION DECLINES OF THE PUERTO RICAN VIREO IN GUANICA FOREST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    JOHN FAABORG; KATE M. DUGGER; WAYNE J. ARENDT; BETHANY L. WOODWORTH; MICHAEL E. BALTZ

    1997-01-01

    Abundance of the Puerto Rican Vireo (Vireo Zutimeri) in Guanica Forest, Puerto Rico, has declined gradually over the period 1973-1996 as determined by constant effort mist netting. Concurrent studies of breeding vireos show low nesting success, primarily due to parasitism by Shiny Cowbirds (Molothrus bonariensis). This decline may reflect the rather recent entry of the...

  3. Recent water quality trends in a typical semi-arid river with a sharp decrease in streamflow and construction of sewage treatment plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Peng; Li, Xuyong; Su, Jingjun; Hao, Shaonan

    2018-01-01

    Identification of the interactive responses of water quantity and quality to changes in nature and human stressors is important for the effective management of water resources. Many studies have been conducted to determine the influence of these stressors on river discharge and water quality. However, there is little information about whether sewage treatment plants can improve water quality in a region where river streamflow has decreased sharply. In this study, a seasonal trend decomposition method was used to analyze long-term (1996-2015) and seasonal trends in the streamflow and water quality of the Guanting Reservoir Basin, which is located in a semi-arid region of China. The results showed that the streamflow in the Guanting Reservoir Basin decreased sharply from 1996-2000 due to precipitation change and human activities (human use and reservoir regulation), while the streamflow decline over the longer period of time (1996-2015) could be attributed to human activities. During the same time, the river water quality improved significantly, having a positive relationship with the capacity of wastewater treatment facilities. The water quality in the Guanting Reservoir showed a deferred response to the reduced external loading, due to internal loading from sediments. These results implied that for rivers in which streamflow has declined sharply, the water quality could be improved significantly by actions to control water pollution control. This study not only provides useful information for water resource management in the Guanting Reservoir Basin, but also supports the implementation of water pollution control measures in other rivers with a sharp decline in streamflow.

  4. Trends of energy efficiency in Finnish road freight transport 1995-2009 and forecast to 2016

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liimatainen, Heikki; Poellaenen, Markus

    2010-01-01

    A framework for modeling and analyzing the energy efficiency of road freight transport is presented in this paper. This framework is tested by using the data from the Finnish Goods Transport by Road statistics. The data was enhanced by calculating the fuel consumption for each trip in the data. To calculate this, weight-fuel consumption functions were estimated for each Euro-class vehicles and road type. This is a new method for analyzing the energy efficiency of road freight transport and it could be applied also in other countries gathering freight transport data with continuous company surveys. The analysis show that the energy efficiency of road freight transport in Finland improved during 1995-2002, but has declined since. The major drivers in the development have been the changes in the level of empty running and vehicle fuel efficiency. Extrapolating current statistical trends of factors that influence the energy efficiency show that the target set by the Finnish government for improving energy efficiency by 9% until 2016 will not be achieved. However, the target is possible to be achieved by a combination of small changes to some determinants. - Research highlights: →A new method for analyzing energy efficiency by adding fuel data to national freight statistics. →Energy efficiency improved in Finland from 1995 to 2002 but has declined since. →Energy efficiency in Finland is still on a good level internationally. →Target of the Finnish energy efficiency agreement was quantified for the first time in this study. →The target will not be achieved if the past trends continue.

  5. Trend of suspended sediment load in the Velika Morava River in the period 1967-2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mustafić Sanja

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is concerned with identifying changes in the time series of discharge (Q, suspended sediment concentration (SSC and sediment load (Qs of the Velika Morva River. The catchment area on farthest hydrological profile Ljubičevski most on Velika Morava River is approximately 35,496 km2. In this profile were carried out daily measurements of flow and concetration of silt in the period from 1967 to 2007. Average perennial transport of suspended sediment is 2.57ˣ106 t (72.4 t/km2/yr and ranged from 0.17ˣ106 t (4.8 t/km2/yr to 10.02ˣ106 t (282.2 t/km2/yr. Trends determined for Q, SSC and Qs are statistically obtained using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. Results of Mann-Kendall test show that Q has a slight declining trend of annual values which do not show statistical significance. Decline in trendline SSC and Qs is a significant at the level of 0.01. Calculating the standardized regression coefficients, it was found that the relative impact of SSC on sediment load is 3.1 time higher than the impact of discharge. From 1967 to 2007 the average decrease in sediment load at the mouth of the Velika Morava into the Danube was 3.1 t/km2/yr. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 43007: The Research on Climate Change Influences on Environment: Influence Monitoring, Adaptation and Mitigation, subproject No. 9: Torrential Floods Frequency, Soil and Water Degradation as the Consequence of Global Changes

  6. Mice with cancer-induced bone pain show a marked decline in day/night activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majuta, Lisa A; Guedon, Jean-Marc G; Mitchell, Stefanie A T; Kuskowski, Michael A; Mantyh, Patrick W

    2017-09-01

    Cancer-induced bone pain (CIBP) is the most common type of pain with cancer. In humans, this pain can be difficult to control and highly disabling. A major problem with CIBP in humans is that it increases on weight-bearing and/or movement of a tumor-bearing bone limiting the activity and functional status of the patient. Currently, there is less data concerning whether similar negative changes in activity occur in rodent models of CIBP. To determine whether there are marked changes in activity in a rodent model of CIBP and compare this to changes in skin hypersensitivity. Osteosarcoma cells were injected and confined to 1 femur of the adult male mouse. Every 7 days, spontaneous horizontal and vertical activities were assessed over a 20-hour day and night period using automated activity boxes. Mechanical hypersensitivity of the hind paw skin was assessed using von Frey testing. As the tumor cells grew within the femur, there was a significant decline in horizontal and vertical activity during the times of the day/night when the mice are normally most active. Mice also developed significant hypersensitivity in the skin of the hind paw in the tumor-bearing limb. Even when the tumor is confined to a single load-bearing bone, CIBP drives a significant loss of activity, which increases with disease progression. Understanding the mechanisms that drive this reduction in activity may allow the development of therapies that allow CIBP patients to better maintain their activity and functional status.

  7. River dolphins can act as population trend indicators in degraded freshwater systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel T Turvey

    Full Text Available Conservation attention on charismatic large vertebrates such as dolphins is often supported by the suggestion that these species represent surrogates for wider biodiversity, or act as indicators of ecosystem health. However, their capacity to act as indicators of patterns or trends in regional biodiversity has rarely been tested. An extensive new dataset of >300 last-sighting records for the Yangtze River dolphin or baiji and two formerly economically important fishes, the Yangtze paddlefish and Reeves' shad, all of which are probably now extinct in the Yangtze, was collected during an interview survey of fishing communities across the middle-lower Yangtze drainage. Untransformed last-sighting date frequency distributions for these species show similar decline curves over time, and the linear gradients of transformed last-sighting date series are not significantly different from each other, demonstrating that these species experienced correlated population declines in both timing and rate of decline. Whereas species may be expected to respond differently at the population level even in highly degraded ecosystems, highly vulnerable (e.g. migratory species can therefore display very similar responses to extrinsic threats, even if they represent otherwise very different taxonomic, biological and ecological groupings. Monitoring the status of river dolphins or other megafauna therefore has the potential to provide wider information on the status of other threatened components of sympatric freshwater biotas, and so represents a potentially important monitoring tool for conservation management. We also show that interview surveys can provide robust quantitative data on relative population dynamics of different species.

  8. Analysis of cerebrovascular mortality trends in Spain from 1980 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayuela, A; Cayuela, L; Escudero-Martínez, I; Rodríguez-Domínguez, S; González, A; Moniche, F; Jiménez, M D; Montaner, J

    2016-01-01

    In recent decades, mortality rates for cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) have declined significantly in many countries. This study analyses changes in CVD mortality rates in Spain (1980-2011) to determine if previously observed trends remain. Data on CVD mortality rates and the population data needed for the analysis were provided by Spain's National Statistics Institute. We calculated age-specific mortality rate, age-standardised overall mortality, and age-truncated mortality (35-64 years) using the direct method and standard European population structure. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the percentage of annual change in rates and identify significant changes in trends. CVD mortality rate decreased considerably and continuously over the last 32 years in all age groups and in both sexes in Spain. For both sexes, joinpoint analysis identifies a final period with more marked decline: 2005-2011 in women (-6.3%) and 2007-2011 in men (-7.2%). CVD mortality rates displayed a marked and continuous decline in Spain between 1980 and 2011. Due to the ageing of the population, doctors expect an increase in CVD prevalence and therefore its magnitude in terms of disability and healthcare costs, which poses a challenge to our health system. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Neurología. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Trends in the risk of mortality due to cardiovascular diseases in five Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996

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    Maria de Fátima Marinho de Souza

    2001-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE - To analyze the trends in risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases in the northern, northeastern, southern, southeastern, and central western Brazilian geographic regions from 1979 to 1996. METHODS - Data on mortality due to cardiovascular, cardiac ischemic, and cerebrovascular diseases in 5 Brazilian geographic regions were obtained from the Ministry of Health. Population estimates for the time period from 1978 to 1996 in the 5 Brazilian geographic regions were calculated by interpolation with the Lagrange method, based on the census data from 1970, 1980, 1991, and the population count of 1996, for each age bracket and sex. Trends were analyzed with the multiple linear regression model. RESULTS - Cardiovascular diseases showed a declining trend in the southern, southeastern, and northern Brazilian geographic regions in all age brackets and for both sexes. In the northeastern and central western regions, an increasing trend in the risk of death due to cardiovascular diseases occurred, except for the age bracket from 30 to 39 years, which showed a slight reduction. This resulted from the trends of cardiac ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The analysis of the trend in the northeastern and northern regions was impaired by the great proportion of poorly defined causes of death. CONCLUSION - The risk of death due to cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and cardiac ischemic diseases decreased in the southern and southeastern regions, which are the most developed regions in the country, and increased in the least developed regions, mainly in the central western region.

  10. Assessment of anthropogenic vegetation productivity decline in the Volta basin from 1982 to 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlek, Quang Bao Le, Lulseged Tamene, Paul L. G.

    2009-04-01

    Primary productivity decline is causing loss of ecosystem services which in turn influences not only the water cycle, but also the livelihoods of millions of inhabitants worldwide. Climate change or other natural events may be responsible for land degradation, but the phenomenon is mainly due to human actions. Therefore, it would be important to identify those areas in which the pressure on land needs to be alleviated. In this study, we conducted a step-wise analysis using a series of databases to identify the extent of land under anthropogenic threats. We processed time-series NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) products for the period 1982 - 2003 to analyse long-term trends in biomass productivity changes over the Volta basin. To distinguish human-induced biomass trends from climate-driven vegetation dynamics, we excluded those areas that had shown a strong biomass response to inter-annual rainfall variation. Pixels with NDVI changes in accordance with rainfall (positive correlation) were considered due to climate change or variation. Pixels not affected by rainfall (no or negative correlation) are those where green biomass change could be interpreted to reflect areas with strictly human induced land degradation. Spatial data of soil constraints, land-use/cover and population density within the study period were used to interpret possible underlying factors of land productivity decline. The results of the study show that about 31 thousands km2 (8% of the basin land mass), which is the living space of over 1.3 million people, was land that is losing its ability to produce green biomass due to human actions. The degradation areas for the various land cover types are 12.2 thousands km2 for woodland, 8.3 thousands km2 for agriculture, 7.3 thousands km2 for shrubland, and 1.6 thousands km2 for evergreen forest. The relatively low population density in the degraded areas (averagely 43 pers.km-2) would suggest that these are marginal areas with limited

  11. Decreasing DOC trends in soil solution along the hillslopes at two IM sites in southern Sweden--geochemical modeling of organic matter solubility during acidification recovery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löfgren, Stefan; Gustafsson, Jon Petter; Bringmark, Lage

    2010-12-01

    Numerous studies report increased concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during the last two decades in boreal lakes and streams in Europe and North America. Recently, a hypothesis was presented on how various spatial and temporal factors affect the DOC dynamics. It was concluded that declining sulphur deposition and thereby increased DOC solubility, is the most important driver for the long-term DOC concentration trends in surface waters. If this recovery hypothesis is correct, the DOC levels should increase both in the soil solution as well as in the surrounding surface waters as soil pH rises and the ionic strength declines due to the reduced input of SO(4)(2-) ions. In this project a geochemical model was set up to calculate the net humic charge and DOC solubility trends in soils during the period 1996-2007 at two integrated monitoring sites in southern Sweden, showing clear signs of acidification recovery. The Stockholm Humic Model was used to investigate whether the observed DOC solubility is related to the humic charge and to examine how pH and ionic strength influence it. Soil water data from recharge and discharge areas, covering both podzols and riparian soils, were used. The model exercise showed that the increased net charge following the pH increase was in many cases counteracted by a decreased ionic strength, which acted to decrease the net charge and hence the DOC solubility. Thus, the recovery from acidification does not necessarily have to generate increasing DOC trends in soil solution. Depending on changes in pH, ionic strength and soil Al pools, the trends might be positive, negative or indifferent. Due to the high hydraulic connectivity with the streams, the explanations to the DOC trends in surface waters should be searched for in discharge areas and peat lands. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Artisanal Green Turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery of Caribbean Nicaragua: I. Catch rates and trends, 1991-2011.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cynthia J Lagueux

    Full Text Available This is the first assessment of catch rates for the legal, artisanal green turtle, Chelonia mydas, fishery in Caribbean Nicaragua. Data were collected by community members, monitoring up to 14 landing sites from 1991 to 2011. We examined take levels, and temporal and spatial variability in catch rates for the overall fishery, by region, and community using General Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs. More than 171,556 green turtles were killed during the period, with a mean estimated minimum 8,169±2,182 annually. There was a statistically significant decline in catch rates overall. Catch rates peaked in 1997 and 2002, followed by a downward trend, particularly from mid-2008 to the end of the study period. Similar downward trends were evident in both study regions. Community specific catch rate trends also indicated declines with decreases ranging from 21% to 90%. Decrease in catch rates in Nicaragua is cause for concern even though the principal source rookery at Tortuguero, Costa Rica, shows an increase in nesting activity. Explanations for the apparent discrepancy between the increasing trend at Tortuguero and decreasing catch rate trends in Nicaragua include: i an increase in reproductive output, ii insufficient time has passed to observe the impact of the fishery on the rookery due to a time lag, iii changes in other segments of the population have not been detected since only nesting activity is monitored, iv the expansive northern Nicaragua foraging ground may provide a refuge for a sufficient portion of the Tortuguero rookery, and/or v a larger than expected contribution of non-Tortuguero rookeries occurring in Nicaragua turtle fishing areas. Our results highlight the need for close monitoring of rookeries and in-water aggregations in the Caribbean. Where consumptive use still occurs, nations sharing this resource should implement scientifically based limits on exploitation to ensure sustainability and mitigate impacts to regional population

  13. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S. [Department of Astronomy and Space Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of); Woods, T. N. [Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80303 (United States); Hong, Sunhak, E-mail: gchoe@khu.ac.kr [School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 17104 (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-10

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  14. CORONAL DYNAMIC ACTIVITIES IN THE DECLINING PHASE OF A SOLAR CYCLE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Minhwan; Choe, G. S.; Woods, T. N.; Hong, Sunhak

    2016-01-01

    It has been known that some solar activity indicators show a double-peak feature in their evolution through a solar cycle, which is not conspicuous in sunspot number. In this Letter, we investigate the high solar dynamic activity in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle by examining the evolution of polar and low-latitude coronal hole (CH) areas, splitting and merging events of CHs, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by SOHO /LASCO C3 in solar cycle 23. Although the total CH area is at its maximum near the sunspot minimum, in which polar CHs prevail, it shows a comparable second maximum in the declining phase of the cycle, in which low-latitude CHs are dominant. The events of CH splitting or merging, which are attributed to surface motions of magnetic fluxes, are also mostly populated in the declining phase of the cycle. The far-reaching C3 CMEs are also overpopulated in the declining phase of the cycle. From these results we suggest that solar dynamic activities due to the horizontal surface motions of magnetic fluxes extend far in the declining phase of the sunspot cycle.

  15. No Trend in the Intergenerational Transmission of Divorce

    Science.gov (United States)

    LI, JUI-CHUNG ALLEN; WU, LAWRENCE L.

    2008-01-01

    Previous studies on trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce have produced mixed findings, with two studies (McLanahan and Bumpass 1988; Teachman 2002) reporting no trend in divorce transmission and one study (Wolfinger 1999) finding that divorce transmission has weakened substantially. Using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model, we analyze data from the National Survey of Families and Households and find no evidence for any trend in divorce transmission. To reconcile apparent differences in results, we note that the General Social Survey data used by Wolfinger lack information on marital duration, permitting analysis only for whether respondents have divorced by interview. As a result, an apparent decline in divorce transmission could be due to inadequate adjustments for the longer exposures to risk by earlier marriage cohorts, yielding a higher probability of divorce by interview for earlier cohorts relative to more recent cohorts even if divorce risks are identical across all marriage cohorts. We confirm this possibility by using a series of discrete-time hazard logistic regressions to investigate the sensitivity of estimates of trends in divorce transmission to different adjustments for exposure to risk. We conclude that there has been no trend in the intergenerational transmission of divorce. PMID:19110902

  16. On the pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Shapiro

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: This descriptive finding examines the comparative pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, relative to Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa. Objective: We seek to determine if fertility decline has been slower in sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere in the developing world. Methods: United Nations 2017 estimates of national fertility are used in assessing the comparative pace of fertility decline, and the four regions are compared in terms of how far they are into their fertility transition. Results: The data shows clearly that fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, still at a comparatively early stage, has been considerably slower than the earlier declines in Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Northern Africa at comparable stages of the transition, and displays less within-region heterogeneity than the transitions in these other regions. Conclusions: The slower pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa, in conjunction with the high current fertility levels in the region, means that in the absence of policies seeking to accelerate fertility decline, sub-Saharan Africa will continue to experience rapid population growth that in turn will constrain its development. Contribution: Presentation of data in a novel way (Figures 2‒4, and associated calculations unambiguously demonstrates the slow pace of fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa compared with other regions of the world.

  17. Historical atmospheric pollution trends in Southeast Asia inferred from lake sediment records.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engels, S; Fong, L S R Z; Chen, Q; Leng, M J; McGowan, S; Idris, M; Rose, N L; Ruslan, M S; Taylor, D; Yang, H

    2018-04-01

    Fossil fuel combustion leads to increased levels of air pollution, which negatively affects human health as well as the environment. Documented data for Southeast Asia (SEA) show a strong increase in fossil fuel consumption since 1980, but information on coal and oil combustion before 1980 is not widely available. Spheroidal carbonaceous particles (SCPs) and heavy metals, such as mercury (Hg), are emitted as by-products of fossil fuel combustion and may accumulate in sediments following atmospheric fallout. Here we use sediment SCP and Hg records from several freshwater lentic ecosystems in SEA (Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore) to reconstruct long-term, region-wide variations in levels of these two key atmospheric pollution indicators. The age-depth models of Philippine sediment cores do not reach back far enough to date first SCP presence, but single SCP occurrences are first observed between 1925 and 1950 for a Malaysian site. Increasing SCP flux is observed at our sites from 1960 onward, although individual sites show minor differences in trends. SCP fluxes show a general decline after 2000 at each of our study sites. While the records show broadly similar temporal trends across SEA, absolute SCP fluxes differ between sites, with a record from Malaysia showing SCP fluxes that are two orders of magnitude lower than records from the Philippines. Similar trends in records from China and Japan represent the emergence of atmospheric pollution as a broadly-based inter-region environmental problem during the 20th century. Hg fluxes were relatively stable from the second half of the 20th century onward. As catchment soils are also contaminated with atmospheric Hg, future soil erosion can be expected to lead to enhanced Hg flux into surface waters. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. The age-related performance decline in ultraendurance mountain biking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haupt, Samuel; Knechtle, Beat; Knechtle, Patrizia; Rüst, Christoph Alexander; Rosemann, Thomas; Lepers, Romuald

    2013-01-01

    The age-related changes in ultraendurance performance have been previously examined for running and triathlon but not mountain biking. The aims of this study were (i) to describe the performance trends and (ii) to analyze the age-related performance decline in ultraendurance mountain biking in a 120-km ultraendurance mountain bike race the "Swiss Bike Masters" from 1995 to 2009 in 9,325 male athletes. The mean (±SD) race time decreased from 590 ± 80 min to 529 ± 88 min for overall finishers and from 415 ± 8 min to 359 ± 16 min for the top 10 finishers, respectively. The mean (±SD) age of all finishers significantly (P Bike Masters" appears to start earlier compared with other ultraendurance sports.

  19. Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Vladimir; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Cai, Lei

    2016-01-01

    Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well (r = +0.69,p Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

  20. Musculoskeletal disorders as underlying cause of death in 58 countries, 1986-2011: trend analysis of WHO mortality database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Woolf, Anthony D; Englund, Martin

    2017-02-02

    Due to low mortality rate of musculoskeletal disorders (MSK) less attention has been paid to MSK as underlying cause of death in the general population. The aim was to examine trend in MSK as underlying cause of death in 58 countries across globe during 1986-2011. Data on mortality were collected from the WHO mortality database and population data were obtained from the United Nations. Annual sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated by means of direct standardization using the WHO world standard population. We applied joinpoint regression analysis for trend analysis. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and Gini coefficient. The changes in number of MSK deaths between 1986 and 2011 were decomposed using two counterfactual scenarios. The number of MSK deaths increased by 67% between 1986 and 2011 mainly due to population aging. The mean ASMR changed from 17.2 and 26.6 per million in 1986 to 18.1 and 25.1 in 2011 among men and women, respectively (median: 7.3% increase in men and 9.0% reduction in women). Declines in ASMR of 25% or more were observed for men (women) in 13 (19) countries, while corresponding increases were seen for men (women) in 25 (14) countries. In both sexes, ASMR declined during 1986-1997, then increased during 1997-2001 and again declined over 2001-2011. Despite decline over time, there were substantial between-country disparities in MSK mortality and its temporal trend. We found substantial variations in MSK mortality and its trends between countries, regions and also between sex and age groups. Promoted awareness and better management of MSK might partly explain reduction in MSK mortality, but variations across countries warrant further investigations.

  1. Are neonicotinoid insecticides driving declines of widespread butterflies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre S. Gilburn

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been widespread concern that neonicotinoid pesticides may be adversely impacting wild and managed bees for some years, but recently attention has shifted to examining broader effects they may be having on biodiversity. For example in the Netherlands, declines in insectivorous birds are positively associated with levels of neonicotinoid pollution in surface water. In England, the total abundance of widespread butterfly species declined by 58% on farmed land between 2000 and 2009 despite both a doubling in conservation spending in the UK, and predictions that climate change should benefit most species. Here we build models of the UK population indices from 1985 to 2012 for 17 widespread butterfly species that commonly occur at farmland sites. Of the factors we tested, three correlated significantly with butterfly populations. Summer temperature and the index for a species the previous year are both positively associated with butterfly indices. By contrast, the number of hectares of farmland where neonicotinoid pesticides are used is negatively associated with butterfly indices. Indices for 15 of the 17 species show negative associations with neonicotinoid usage. The declines in butterflies have largely occurred in England, where neonicotinoid usage is at its highest. In Scotland, where neonicotinoid usage is comparatively low, butterfly numbers are stable. Further research is needed urgently to show whether there is a causal link between neonicotinoid usage and the decline of widespread butterflies or whether it simply represents a proxy for other environmental factors associated with intensive agriculture.

  2. Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R.; Taylor, Andrew D.; Robichaux, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

  3. Otolaryngology Education: Recent Trends in Publication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cass, Nathan D; Okland, Tyler S; Rodriguez, Kenny; Mann, Scott E

    2017-06-01

    Objectives (1) Evaluate peer-reviewed publications regarding education in otolaryngology since 2000. (2) Analyze publication trends as compared with overall otolaryngology publications. Study Design Bibliometric analysis. Setting Academic medical center. Subjects and Methods A search for articles regarding education in otolaryngology from 2000 to 2015 was performed with MEDLINE and EMBASE databases, yielding 1220 articles; 362 relevant publications were categorized by topic, subspecialty, subject, article type, and funding source. Impact factors for each journal by year were obtained, and trends of each category over time were analyzed. These were then compared with publication numbers and impact factors for all otolaryngology journals. Results From 2000 to 2015, publications in otolaryngology education increased more rapidly than the field of otolaryngology overall. The most published topics included operative skills training, surgical simulation, and professionalism/career development. Recently there has been a decline in publications related to residency administration and duty hours relative to other topics. Only 12.2% of publications reported a funding source, and only 12.2% of studies were controlled. Conclusion Recent trends in otolaryngology literature reflect an increasing focus on education; however, this work is underfunded and often lacks high-quality evidence.

  4. Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S

    2010-11-09

    Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm will contract to two-thirds of its present level. Statistical habitat models suggest that this tree decline will negatively affect many currently common animal species, with predicted declines in birds and bats of up to 50% by 2100. Declines were predicted for 24 of 32 bird species modeled and for all of six bat species modeled. Widespread declines in trees, birds, and bats may lead to a reduction in economically important ecosystem services such as shade provision for livestock and pest control. Moreover, many other species for which we have no empirical data also depend on trees, suggesting that fundamental changes in ecosystem functioning are likely. We conclude that Australia's temperate agricultural zone has crossed a threshold and no longer functions as a self-sustaining woodland ecosystem. A regime shift is occurring, with a woodland system deteriorating into a treeless pasture system. Management options exist to reverse tree decline, but new policy settings are required to encourage their widespread adoption.

  5. Dynamic catch trends in the history of recreational spearfishing in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Matthew A L; Foale, Simon; Bellwood, David R

    2015-06-01

    The sustained decline in marine fisheries worldwide underscores the need to understand and monitor fisheries trends and fisher behavior. Recreational fisheries are unique in that they are not subject to the typical drivers that influence commercial and artisanal fisheries (e.g., markets or food security). Nevertheless, although exposed to a different set of drivers (i.e., interest or relaxation), recreational fisheries can contribute to fishery declines. Recreational fisheries are also difficult to assess due to an absence of past monitoring and traditional fisheries data. Therefore, we utilized a nontraditional data source (a chronology of spearfishing publications) to document historical trends in recreational spearfishing in Australia between 1952 and 2009. We extracted data on reported fish captures, advertising, and spearfisher commentary and used regression models and ordination analyses to assess historical change. The proportion of coastal fish captures reported declined approximately 80%, whereas the proportion of coral reef and pelagic fish reports increased 1750% and 560%, respectively. Catch composition shifted markedly from coastal temperate or subtropical fishes during the 1950s to 1970s to coral reef and pelagic species in the 1990s to 2000s. Advertising data and commentary by spearfishers indicated that pelagic fish species became desired targets. The mean weight of trophy coral reef fishes also declined significantly over the study period (from approximately 30-8 kg). Recreational fishing presents a highly dynamic social-ecological interface and a challenge for management. Our results emphasize the need for regulatory agencies to work closely with recreational fishing bodies to observe fisher behavior, detect shifts in target species or fishing intensity, and adapt regulatory measures. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

  6. Trends in Automobile Travel, Motor Vehicle Fatalities, and Physical Activity: 2003-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, Noreen C

    2017-05-01

    Annual per-capita automobile travel declined by 600 miles from 2003 to 2014 with decreases greatest among young adults. This article tests whether the decline has been accompanied by public health co-benefits of increased physical activity and decreased motor vehicle fatalities. Minutes of auto travel and physical activity derived from active travel, sports, and exercise were obtained from the American Time Use Survey. Fatalities were measured using the Fatality Analysis Reporting System. Longitudinal change was assessed for adults aged 20-59 years by age group and sex. Significance of changes was assessed by absolute differences and unadjusted and adjusted linear trends. Analyses were conducted in 2016. Daily auto travel decreased by 9.2 minutes from 2003 to 2014 for all ages (ptravel showed only modest declines across age groups and, for men aged 20-29 years, varied from 10.9 (95% CI=10.0, 11.7) in 2003 to 9.7 (95% CI=8.7, 10.8) in 2014. Reduced motor vehicle fatalities are a public health co-benefit of decreased driving, especially for male millennials. Despite suggestions to the contrary, individuals did not switch from cars to active modes nor spend more time in sports and exercise. Maintenance of the safety benefits requires additional attention to road safety efforts, particularly as auto travel increases. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Mortality rates for stroke in England from 1979 to 2004: trends, diagnostic precision, and artifacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldacre, Michael J; Duncan, Marie; Griffith, Myfanwy; Rothwell, Peter M

    2008-08-01

    Stroke mortality appears to be declining more rapidly in the UK than in many other Western countries. To understand this apparent decline better, we studied trends in mortality in the UK using more detailed data than are routinely available. Analysis of datasets that include both the underlying cause and all other mentioned causes of death (together, termed "all mentions"): the Oxford Record Linkage Study from 1979 to 2004 and English national data from 1996 to 2004. Mortality rates based on underlying cause and based on all mentions showed similar downward trends. Mortality based on underlying cause alone misses about one quarter of all stroke-related deaths. Changes during the period in the national rules for selecting the underlying cause of death had a significant but fairly small effect on the trend. Overall, mortality fell by an average annual rate of 2.3% (95% confidence interval 2.1% to 2.5%) for stroke excluding subarachnoid hemorrhage; and by 2.1% (1.7% to 2.6%) per annum for subarachnoid hemorrhage. Coding of stroke as hemorrhagic, occlusive, or unspecified varied substantially across the study period. As a result, rates for hemorrhagic and occlusive stroke, affected by artifact, seemed to fall substantially in the first part of the study period and then leveled off. Studies of stroke mortality should include all mentions as well as the certified underlying cause, otherwise the burden of stroke will be underestimated. Studies of stroke mortality that include strokes specified as hemorrhagic or occlusive, without also considering stroke overall, are likely to be misleading. Stroke mortality in the Oxford region halved between 1979 and 2004.

  8. Global population trends and policy options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeh, Alex C; Bongaarts, John; Mberu, Blessing

    2012-07-14

    Rapid population growth is a threat to wellbeing in the poorest countries, whereas very low fertility increasingly threatens the future welfare of many developed countries. The mapping of global trends in population growth from 2005-10 shows four distinct patterns. Most of the poorest countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, are characterised by rapid growth of more than 2% per year. Moderate annual growth of 1-2% is concentrated in large countries, such as India and Indonesia, and across north Africa and western Latin America. Whereas most advanced-economy countries and large middle-income countries, such as China and Brazil, are characterised by low or no growth (0-1% per year), most of eastern Europe, Japan, and a few western European countries are characterised by population decline. Countries with rapid growth face adverse social, economic, and environmental pressures, whereas those with low or negative growth face rapid population ageing, unsustainable burdens on public pensions and health-care systems, and slow economic growth. Countries with rapid growth should consider the implementation of voluntary family planning programmes as their main policy option to reduce the high unmet need for contraception, unwanted pregnancies, and probirth reproductive norms. In countries with low or negative growth, policies to address ageing and very low fertility are still evolving. Further research into the potential effect of demographic policies on other social systems, social groups, and fertility decisions and trends is therefore recommended. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Trends in Early Childhood Obesity in a Large Urban School District in the Southwestern United States, 2007-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cantarero, Andrea; Myers, Orrin; Scharmen, Thomas; Kinyua, Peter; Jimenez, Elizabeth Yakes

    2016-06-02

    Although recent studies indicate that rates of childhood obesity and severe obesity may be declining, few studies have reported prevalence trends in early childhood or differences in trends across sociodemographic groups. The primary aim of this study was to report trends in prevalence of early childhood obesity and severe obesity 2007 through 2014 in a diverse, metropolitan school district in the southwestern United States and determine whether these trends vary by race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and disability status. We analyzed height, weight and demographic data from 43,113 kindergarteners enrolled in a large, urban school district in the southwestern United States for 7 school years. Adjusted odds of obesity and severe obesity were calculated to assess changes in prevalence for non-Hispanic white, Hispanic, and American Indian students; free or reduced-price lunch participants and nonparticipants; and students with and without disabilities. To test for differences in obesity trends, interaction terms were added to the logistic regressions between school year and sex, race/ethnicity, free or reduced-price lunch participation, and disability status. The adjusted prevalence of both obesity (from 13.1% in 2007-2008 to 12.0% in 2013-20014) and severe obesity (from 2.4% in 2007-2008 to 1.2% in 2013-2014) declined overall. We found no significant interactions between the adjusted prevalence of obesity over time and any of the sociodemographic subgroups. Obesity prevalence declined more among American Indian students than among Hispanic or non-Hispanic white students. In this district, from 2007 through 2014, severe obesity decreased and obesity did not increase, overall and across all sociodemographic subpopulations for kindergarten students.

  10. Waist Circumference, Not Body Mass Index, Is Associated with Renal Function Decline in Korean Population: Hallym Aging Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, Hyunju; Quan, Shan Ai; Jeong, Jin-Young; Jang, Soong-Nang; Lee, Jung Eun; Kim, Dong-Hyun

    2013-01-01

    Background Prospective investigation of obesity and renal function decline in Asia is sparse. We examined the associations of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) with renal function decline in a prospective study of Korean population. Methods A total of 454 participants who had baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) levels of more than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in Hallym Aging Study (HAS) were included and followed for 6 years. Renal function decline was defined as follows: (1) an eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 82 cases); (2) an eGFR decrease of 20% or greater (n = 87 cases) at follow-up; (3) an eGFR decrease of 20% greater at follow-up or eGFR decline ≥3 mL/min/1.73 m2/year (n = 91 cases); and (4) an eGFR 95 cm in men or >90 cm in women with ≤90 cm in men or ≤85 cm in women, ORs (95% CIs) ranged from 2.31 (1.14–4.69) to 2.78 (1.19–6.50) for the 4 definitions of renal function decline (all p-values for trend Korean population. Our results provide important evidence that simple measurement of central fat deposition rather than BMI could predict decline in renal function in Korean population. PMID:23536858

  11. ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutawanir Darwis

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.

  12. Declines in Birth weight and Fetal Growth Independent of Gestational Length

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morisaki, Naho; Esplin, M. Sean; Varner, Michael W.; Henry, Erick; Oken, Emily

    2014-01-01

    Objective Birth weight is decreasing in the US and elsewhere, even among term singletons, although trends in most maternal characteristics should contribute to increased birth weight. Some studies have attributed this decline to the simultaneous decrease in gestational length. Methods Using data from Intermountain Healthcare, where a successful initiative reduced the number of early term (37–38 week) elective deliveries, we examined trends in birth weight, small-for-gestational-age (SGA), and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) among 219,694 singleton infants born July 2000 to December 2008 at 37–41 weeks gestation. Results Over the 8.5 years, births through scheduled deliveries at 37–38 weeks decreased (9.4% to 4.4%), but overall scheduled deliveries increased (29% to 34%) and mean gestational age at birth (39.1 weeks) did not change. Mean birth weight (3410g to 3383g) and LGA (9.0% to 7.4%) both decreased, whereas SGA increased (7.5% to 8.2%). In multivariable analyses adjusting for maternal and infant characteristics, birth weight decreased (36g; 95% CI: 31, 42), especially among infants born at 37–38 weeks (40g; 30, 49) or that had medical indications for urgent deliveries (48g; 34, 63). Odds of LGA decreased (0.84; 0.80, 0.88) and odds of SGA increased (1.14; 1.08, 1.20). Conclusion Even in a population where gestation length did not change, birth weight and fetal growth declined. Decrease in not only gestational length but in fetal growth as well is likely to be contributing to the widely observed recent decrease in birth weight. PMID:23262927

  13. Periodontitis and Cognitive Decline in Alzheimer's Disease.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Ide

    Full Text Available Periodontitis is common in the elderly and may become more common in Alzheimer's disease because of a reduced ability to take care of oral hygiene as the disease progresses. Elevated antibodies to periodontal bacteria are associated with an increased systemic pro-inflammatory state. Elsewhere raised serum pro-inflammatory cytokines have been associated with an increased rate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We hypothesized that periodontitis would be associated with increased dementia severity and a more rapid cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to determine if periodontitis in Alzheimer's disease is associated with both increased dementia severity and cognitive decline, and an increased systemic pro inflammatory state. In a six month observational cohort study 60 community dwelling participants with mild to moderate Alzheimer's Disease were cognitively assessed and a blood sample taken for systemic inflammatory markers. Dental health was assessed by a dental hygienist, blind to cognitive outcomes. All assessments were repeated at six months. The presence of periodontitis at baseline was not related to baseline cognitive state but was associated with a six fold increase in the rate of cognitive decline as assessed by the ADAS-cog over a six month follow up period. Periodontitis at baseline was associated with a relative increase in the pro-inflammatory state over the six month follow up period. Our data showed that periodontitis is associated with an increase in cognitive decline in Alzheimer's Disease, independent to baseline cognitive state, which may be mediated through effects on systemic inflammation.

  14. Different trends in extreme and median surface aerosol extinction coefficients over China inferred from quality-controlled visibility data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jing; Li, Chengcai; Zhao, Chunsheng

    2018-03-01

    Although the temporal changes in aerosol properties have been widely investigated, the majority of studies has focused on average conditions without much emphasis on the extremes. However, the latter can be more important in terms of human health and climate change. This study uses a previously validated, quality-controlled visibility dataset to investigate the long-term trends (expressed in terms of relative changes) in extreme surface aerosol extinction coefficient (AEC) over China and compares them with the median trends. Two methods are used to independently evaluate the trends, which arrive at consistent results. The signs of extreme and median trends are generally coherent, whereas their magnitudes show distinct spatial and temporal differences. In the 1980s, an overall positive trend is found throughout China with the extreme trend exceeding the mean trend, except for northwest China and the North China Plain. In the 1990s, AEC over northeast and northwest China started to decline while the rest of the country still exhibited an increase. The extreme trends continued to dominate in the south while they yielded to the mean trend in the north. After the year 2000, the extreme trend became weaker than the mean trend overall in terms of both the magnitude and significance level. The annual trend can be primarily attributed to winter and fall trends. The results suggest that the decadal changes in pollution in China may be governed by different mechanisms. Synoptic conditions that often result in extreme air quality changes might have dominated in the 1980s, whereas emission increase might have been the main factor for the 2000s.

  15. Use of the Internet as a prevention tool against cognitive decline in normal aging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimova, Blanka

    Recent demographic trends indicate that older people appear to be one of the fastest growing population groups worldwide. In the year 2000, people older than 65 years represented 12.4% of the population. This number is expected to rise to 19% by 2030, particularly in developed countries. Therefore, there is sustained effort at both national and international levels to prolong the active life of these people as long as possible. Since the present older generation at the age of 55 years is already digitally literate, the use of technologies is one of the solutions. The purpose of this study is to discuss the role of the Internet in the prevention of cognitive decline in normal aging. The author examines clinical studies that exploit the use of the Internet, including online training programs, in the prevention of cognitive decline in healthy older individuals. The findings of the clinical studies indicate that the use of the Internet, especially online cognitive training programs, may have a positive effect on the improvement of cognitive functions in healthy older adults. Nevertheless, larger sample longitudinal randomized controlled clinical trials aimed at the prevention of cognitive decline among healthy older adults are needed.

  16. Labor immigration in the Arab Gulf states: patterns, trends and problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, A

    1986-09-01

    This is an overview of recent labor immigration in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Attention is given to factors contributing to the dependence of these countries on migrant labor, the impact of the decline in oil revenues, and future trends in the size and skill composition of the foreign labor supply.

  17. When Teens Have Sex: Issues and Trends. KIDS COUNT Special Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Annie E. Casey Foundation, Baltimore, MD.

    In the 1990s, teen pregnancy and birth rates in the United States declined significantly. Researchers cite two main factors: fewer teens are having sex, and among those who are, more are using contraception. Despite these positive trends, there are still about one million pregnancies and about half a million births each year to young women aged 15…

  18. Temporal trends in health-related quality of life after stroke: analysis from the South London Stroke Register 1995-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheldenkar, Anita; Crichton, Siobhan; Douiri, Abdel; Rudd, Anthony G; Wolfe, Charles D A; Chen, Ruoling

    2014-08-01

    Survival after stroke has dramatically increased in the last two decades as the treatment of stroke has improved. However, time-trend analyses of health-related quality of life in stroke patients covering this time period are still not well investigated. The study aims to examine temporal trends in mental and physical health-related quality of life of stroke survivors between the period of 1995 and 2011. First in a lifetime strokes were registered in the South London Stroke Register between 1995 and 2011. Using the Short Form-12 Health Survey, trends in self-reported health-related quality of life at one-year after stroke were assessed over a 17-year period using linear regression, adjusting for socio-demographics, risk factors, and case-mix variables. Analyses stratifying by age, gender, race-ethnicity, and functional impairment were also performed. The overall trends of mental and physical health-related quality of life scores at one-year after stroke remained relatively unchanged over the period 1995-2011. However, mental health-related quality of life scores significantly improved between the period of 1995-2007 [β = 0·94 (95% CI; 0·15 to 1·74), P = 0·02], after which scores deteriorated [β = -2·02 (-3·82 to -0·22), P = 0·03]. Physical health-related quality of life scores remained stable until 2007, after which scores declined [β = -1·63 (-3·25 to -0·01), P = 0·05]. Despite declining health-related quality of life trends within the general population, stroke survivors' overall health-related quality of life remained unchanged, possibly due to lower expectations of health among stroke survivors. However, in recent years there has been a significant unexplained decline in both physical and mental health-related quality of life, suggesting that despite stroke policy aims to improve health-related quality of life, more needs to be done to target this decline. © 2014 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2014 World

  19. Tree decline and the future of Australian farmland biodiversity

    OpenAIRE

    Fischer, Joern; Zerger, Andre; Gibbons, Phil; Stott, Jenny; Law, Bradley S.

    2010-01-01

    Farmland biodiversity is greatly enhanced by the presence of trees. However, farmland trees are declining worldwide, including in North America, Central America, and parts of southern Europe. We show that tree decline and its likely consequences are particularly severe in Australia's temperate agricultural zone, which is a threatened ecoregion. Using field data on trees, remotely sensed imagery, and a demographic model for trees, we predict that by 2100, the number of trees on an average farm...

  20. Trends in risk factors and etiology of 606 cases of infective endocarditis over 23 years (1984-2006) in slovakia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hricak, V; Liska, B; Kovackova, J; Mikusova, J; Fischer, V; Kovacik, J; Karvaj, M; Jurco, R; Ondrusova, A; Kalavsky, E; Marks, P; Beno, P; Krcmery, V

    2007-04-01

    The aim of this study was to assess trends in risk factors, etiology, outcome and treatment strategies for endocarditis over 23 years in Slovakia. A prospective survey of 606 cases of infective endocarditis (IE) was conducted from 1984-2006. Rheumatic fever as well as previous dental surgery showed decreasing trends within the last 23 years. Also embolic complications of IE declined along with increasing rates of surgically treated patients. No significant changes in etiology were detected apart from the fact that culture-negative endocarditis increased from 10.7% to 55.4% between 1998-2001. Surgically treated patients increased from 22.7% (1984-1990) to 50.1% (2002-2006) and mortality dramatically decreased from 26.7% (1984-1990) to 5.3% (2002-2006). Staphylococcus aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci were the leading causes (22.4% - 48%) followed by viridans streptococci (12.2%-18.2%) were a relatively stable trend over 23 years of IE in Slovakia.

  1. Is the current decline in malaria burden in sub-Saharan Africa due to a decrease in vector population?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Meyrowitsch, Dan Wolf; Pedersen, Erling Møller; Alifrangis, Michael

    2011-01-01

    ) and between 2003 and 2009 (2nd period), mosquitoes were collected weekly in 50 households using CDC light traps. Data on rainfall were obtained from the nearby climate station and was used to analyze the association between monthly rainfall and malaria mosquito populations. RESULTS: The average number...... of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus per trap decreased by 76.8% and 55.3%, respectively over the 1st period, and by 99.7% and 99.8% over the 2nd period. During the last year of sampling (2009), the use of 2368 traps produced a total of only 14 Anopheline mosquitoes. With the exception of the decline...... in An. gambiae during the 1st period, the results did not reveal any statistical association between mean trend in monthly rainfall and declining malaria vector populations. CONCLUSION: A longitudinal decline in the density of malaria mosquito vectors was seen during both study periods despite...

  2. Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michal Engelman

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Variation in lifespan has followed strikingly different trends for the young and old: while overall lifespan variability has decreased as life expectancy at birth has risen, the variability conditional on survival to older ages has increased. These diverging trends reflect changes in the underlying demographic parameters determining age-specific mortality. Objective: We ask why the variation in the adult ages at death has followed a different trend than the variation at younger ages, and aim to explain the diverging patterns in terms of historical changes in the age schedule of mortality. Methods: Using simulations, we show that the empirical trends in lifespan variation are well characterized using the Siler model, which describes the mortality hazard across the full lifespan using functions representing early-life, later-life, and background mortality. We then obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the Siler parameters over time. Finally, we express lifespan variation in terms of a Markov chain model, and apply matrix calculus perturbation analysis to compute the sensitivity of age-specific lifespan variance trends to the changing Siler model parameters. Results: Our analysis produces a detailed quantification of the impact of changing demographic parameters on the pattern of lifespan variability at all ages, highlighting the impact of declining childhood mortality on the reduction of lifespan variability and the impact of improved survival in adulthood on the rising variability of lifespans at older ages. Conclusions: These findings provide insight into the dynamic relationship between the age pattern of survival improvements and time trends in lifespan variability.

  3. Trends in on-road vehicle emissions and ambient air quality in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, from the late 1990s through 2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; DenBleyker, Allison; Ma, Lan; Lindhjem, Chris; Yarwood, Greg

    2014-07-01

    On-road vehicle emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) during 1995-2009 in the Atlanta Metropolitan Statistical Area were estimated using the Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES) model and data from the National Emissions Inventories and the State of Georgia. Statistically significant downward trends (computed using the nonparametric Theil-Sen method) in annual on-road CO, NO(x), and VOC emissions of 6.1%, 3.3%, and 6.0% per year, respectively, are noted during the 1995-2009 period despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled. The CO and NO(x) emission trends are correlated with statistically significant downward trends in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta ranging from 8.0% to 11.8% per year and from 5.8% to 8.7% per year, respectively, during similar time periods. Weather-adjusted summertime ozone concentrations in Atlanta exhibited a statistically significant declining trend of 2.3% per year during 2001-2009. Although this trend coexists with the declining trends in on-road NO(x), VOC, and CO emissions, identifying the cause of the downward trend in ozone is complicated by reductions in multiple precursors from different source sectors. Implications: Large reductions in on-road vehicle emissions of CO and NO(x) in Atlanta from the late 1990s to 2009, despite an increase in total vehicle distance traveled, contributed to a significant improvement in air quality through decreases in ambient air concentrations of CO and NO(x) during this time period. Emissions reductions in motor vehicles and other source sectors resulted in these improvements and the observed declining trend in ozone concentrations over the past decade. Although these historical trends cannot be extrapolated to the future because pollutant concentration contributions due to on-road vehicle emissions will likely become an increasingly smaller fraction of the atmospheric total, they provide an indication of

  4. Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

    2015-04-01

    Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest

  5. Recent trend in family households in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Z; Guo, L

    1997-01-01

    This study examined trends in household size and age structure in Beijing, China, in 1995. Data were reliably obtained from the 1% sample survey of China. Findings indicate that the average size of a family household was 3.15 persons, that is, 0.050 persons fewer than the 3.20 from the 1990 Census. Children aged 0-14 years in each household averaged 0.04 fewer children during 1990-95. 80% of the decline in household size was due to decreases in the number of children. The percentage of single-family and single-person households declined. Three-person households were the only size group that increased (23.2-40.7%). The household headship (HH) rate for males increased dramatically between the ages of 20 and 30 years and stabilized after 35 years. The HH rate for women grew slowly and continuously until age 50 years and then stabilized. The gender gap in HH appeared at an early age and remained thereafter. The HH rate declined at older ages. The HH r