WorldWideScience

Sample records for short-term wind speed

  1. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin; Genton, Marc G.

    2012-01-01

    some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss

  2. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2012-04-01

    The emphasis on renewable energy and concerns about the environment have led to large-scale wind energy penetration worldwide. However, there are also significant challenges associated with the use of wind energy due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High-quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This article begins with an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends. It then reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented. © 2012 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2012 International Statistical Institute.

  3. Short-Term Wind Speed Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bias Correcting Study and Its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Mingfei Niu; Shaolong Sun; Jie Wu; Yuanlei Zhang

    2015-01-01

    The accuracy of wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. In particular, reliable short-term wind speed forecasting can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed, the forecasting of wind speed data using different patterns is difficult. This paper proposes a novel combination bias c...

  4. Artificial intelligence to predict short-term wind speed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinto, Tiago; Soares, Joao; Ramos, Sergio; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - ISEP

    2012-07-01

    The use of renewable energy is increasing exponentially in many countries due to the introduction of new energy and environmental policies. Thus, the focus on energy and on the environment makes the efficient integration of renewable energy into the electric power system extremely important. Several European countries have been seeing a high penetration of wind power, representing, gradually, a significant penetration on electricity generation. The introduction of wind power in the network power system causes new challenges for the power system operator due to the variability and uncertainty in weather conditions and, consequently, in the wind power generation. As result, the scheduling dispatch has a significantly portion of uncertainty. In order to deal with the uncertainty in wind power and, with that, introduce improvements in the power system operator efficiency, the wind power forecasting may reveal as a useful tool. This paper proposes a data-mining-based methodology to forecast wind speed. This method is based on the use of data mining techniques applied to a real database of historical wind data. The paper includes a case study based on a real database regarding the last three years to predict wind speed at 5 minute intervals. (orig.)

  5. Analysis of the short-term overproduction capability of variable speed wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca Daniela; Altin, Müfit; Margaris, Ioannis D.

    2014-01-01

    Emphasis in this article is on variable speed wind turbines (VSWTs) capability to provide short-term overproduction and better understanding of VSWTs’ mechanical and electrical limits to deliver such support. VSWTs’ short-term overproduction capability is of primary concern for the transmission...

  6. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Decomposition-Based Neural Networks Combining Abnormal Detection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuejun Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As one of the most promising renewable resources in electricity generation, wind energy is acknowledged for its significant environmental contributions and economic competitiveness. Because wind fluctuates with strong variation, it is quite difficult to describe the characteristics of wind or to estimate the power output that will be injected into the grid. In particular, short-term wind speed forecasting, an essential support for the regulatory actions and short-term load dispatching planning during the operation of wind farms, is currently regarded as one of the most difficult problems to be solved. This paper contributes to short-term wind speed forecasting by developing two three-stage hybrid approaches; both are combinations of the five-three-Hanning (53H weighted average smoothing method, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD algorithm, and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR neural networks. The chosen datasets are ten-minute wind speed observations, including twelve samples, and our simulation indicates that the proposed methods perform much better than the traditional ones when addressing short-term wind speed forecasting problems.

  7. A short-term ensemble wind speed forecasting system for wind power applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidya Roy, S.; Traiteur, J. J.; Callicutt, D.; Smith, M.

    2011-12-01

    This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 hour ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model (WRFSCM) and a persistence model. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 2 month period (June-July, 2008) at a potential wind farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for August 2008 at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble while significantly reducing forecast uncertainty under all environmental stability conditions. The system also generates significantly better forecasts than persistence, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models during the morning transition and the diurnal convective regimes. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 minute. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.

  8. Incorporating geostrophic wind information for improved space–time short-term wind speed forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2014-09-01

    Accurate short-term wind speed forecasting is needed for the rapid development and efficient operation of wind energy resources. This is, however, a very challenging problem. Although on the large scale, the wind speed is related to atmospheric pressure, temperature, and other meteorological variables, no improvement in forecasting accuracy was found by incorporating air pressure and temperature directly into an advanced space-time statistical forecasting model, the trigonometric direction diurnal (TDD) model. This paper proposes to incorporate the geostrophic wind as a new predictor in the TDD model. The geostrophic wind captures the physical relationship between wind and pressure through the observed approximate balance between the pressure gradient force and the Coriolis acceleration due to the Earth’s rotation. Based on our numerical experiments with data from West Texas, our new method produces more accurate forecasts than does the TDD model using air pressure and temperature for 1to 6-hour-ahead forecasts based on three different evaluation criteria. Furthermore, forecasting errors can be further reduced by using moving average hourly wind speeds to fit the diurnal pattern. For example, our new method obtains between 13.9% and 22.4% overall mean absolute error reduction relative to persistence in 2-hour-ahead forecasts, and between 5.3% and 8.2% reduction relative to the best previous space-time methods in this setting.

  9. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Support Vector Regression Optimized by Cuckoo Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhou Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper develops an effectively intelligent model to forecast short-term wind speed series. A hybrid forecasting technique is proposed based on recurrence plot (RP and optimized support vector regression (SVR. Wind caused by the interaction of meteorological systems makes itself extremely unsteady and difficult to forecast. To understand the wind system, the wind speed series is analyzed using RP. Then, the SVR model is employed to forecast wind speed, in which the input variables are selected by RP, and two crucial parameters, including the penalties factor and gamma of the kernel function RBF, are optimized by various optimization algorithms. Those optimized algorithms are genetic algorithm (GA, particle swarm optimization algorithm (PSO, and cuckoo optimization algorithm (COA. Finally, the optimized SVR models, including COA-SVR, PSO-SVR, and GA-SVR, are evaluated based on some criteria and a hypothesis test. The experimental results show that (1 analysis of RP reveals that wind speed has short-term predictability on a short-term time scale, (2 the performance of the COA-SVR model is superior to that of the PSO-SVR and GA-SVR methods, especially for the jumping samplings, and (3 the COA-SVR method is statistically robust in multi-step-ahead prediction and can be applied to practical wind farm applications.

  10. Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Using EEMD-LSSVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aiqing Kang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM is proposed to improve short-term wind speed forecasting precision. The EEMD is firstly utilized to decompose the original wind speed time series into a set of subseries. Then the LSSVM models are established to forecast these subseries. Partial autocorrelation function is adopted to analyze the inner relationships between the historical wind speed series in order to determine input variables of LSSVM models for prediction of every subseries. Finally, the superposition principle is employed to sum the predicted values of every subseries as the final wind speed prediction. The performance of hybrid model is evaluated based on six metrics. Compared with LSSVM, Back Propagation Neural Networks (BP, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA, combination of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD with LSSVM, and hybrid EEMD with ARIMA models, the wind speed forecasting results show that the proposed hybrid model outperforms these models in terms of six metrics. Furthermore, the scatter diagrams of predicted versus actual wind speed and histograms of prediction errors are presented to verify the superiority of the hybrid model in short-term wind speed prediction.

  11. Short term wind speed forecasting in La Venta, Oaxaca, Mexico, using artificial neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadenas, Erasmo [Facultad de Ingenieria Mecanica, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Santiago Tapia No. 403, Centro, 5000, Mor., Mich. (Mexico); Rivera, Wilfrido [Centro de Ivestigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Apartado Postal 34, Temixco 62580, Morelos (Mexico)

    2009-01-15

    In this paper the short term wind speed forecasting in the region of La Venta, Oaxaca, Mexico, applying the technique of artificial neural network (ANN) to the hourly time series representative of the site is presented. The data were collected by the Comision Federal de Electricidad (CFE) during 7 years through a network of measurement stations located in the place of interest. Diverse configurations of ANN were generated and compared through error measures, guaranteeing the performance and accuracy of the chosen models. First a model with three layers and seven neurons was chosen, according to the recommendations of diverse authors, nevertheless, the results were not sufficiently satisfactory so other three models were developed, consisting of three layers and six neurons, two layers and four neurons and two layers and three neurons. The simplest model of two layers, with two input neurons and one output neuron, was the best for the short term wind speed forecasting, with mean squared error and mean absolute error values of 0.0016 and 0.0399, respectively. The developed model for short term wind speed forecasting showed a very good accuracy to be used by the Electric Utility Control Centre in Oaxaca for the energy supply. (author)

  12. Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

    2014-01-01

    Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

  13. Fine tuning support vector machines for short-term wind speed forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Junyi; Shi Jing; Li Gong

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → A systematic approach to tuning SVM models for wind speed prediction is proposed. → Multiple kernel functions and a wide range of tuning parameters are evaluated, and optimal parameters for each kernel function are obtained. → It is found that the forecasting performance of SVM is closely related to the dynamic characteristics of wind speed. → Under the optimal combination of parameters, different kernels give comparable forecasting accuracy. -- Abstract: Accurate forecasting of wind speed is critical to the effective harvesting of wind energy and the integration of wind power into the existing electric power grid. Least-squares support vector machines (LS-SVM), a powerful technique that is widely applied in a variety of classification and function estimation problems, carries great potential for the application of short-term wind speed forecasting. In this case, tuning the model parameters for optimal forecasting accuracy is a fundamental issue. This paper, for the first time, presents a systematic study on fine tuning of LS-SVM model parameters for one-step ahead wind speed forecasting. Three SVM kernels, namely linear, Gaussian, and polynomial kernels, are implemented. The SVM parameters considered include the training sample size, SVM order, regularization parameter, and kernel parameters. The results show that (1) the performance of LS-SVM is closely related to the dynamic characteristics of wind speed; (2) all parameters investigated greatly affect the performance of LS-SVM models; (3) under the optimal combination of parameters after fine tuning, the three kernels give comparable forecasting accuracy; (4) the performance of linear kernel is worse than the other two kernels when the training sample size or SVM order is small. In addition, LS-SVMs are compared against the persistence approach, and it is found that they can outperform the persistence model in the majority of cases.

  14. A Gaussian process regression based hybrid approach for short-term wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chi; Wei, Haikun; Zhao, Xin; Liu, Tianhong; Zhang, Kanjian

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel hybrid approach is proposed for short-term wind speed prediction. • This method combines the parametric AR model with the non-parametric GPR model. • The relative importance of different inputs is considered. • Different types of covariance functions are considered and combined. • It can provide both accurate point forecasts and satisfactory prediction intervals. - Abstract: This paper proposes a hybrid model based on autoregressive (AR) model and Gaussian process regression (GPR) for probabilistic wind speed forecasting. In the proposed approach, the AR model is employed to capture the overall structure from wind speed series, and the GPR is adopted to extract the local structure. Additionally, automatic relevance determination (ARD) is used to take into account the relative importance of different inputs, and different types of covariance functions are combined to capture the characteristics of the data. The proposed hybrid model is compared with the persistence model, artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) for one-step ahead forecasting, using wind speed data collected from three wind farms in China. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method can not only improve point forecasts compared with other methods, but also generate satisfactory prediction intervals.

  15. Using Random Forests to Select Optimal Input Variables for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Achieving relatively high-accuracy short-term wind speed forecasting estimates is a precondition for the construction and grid-connected operation of wind power forecasting systems for wind farms. Currently, most research is focused on the structure of forecasting models and does not consider the selection of input variables, which can have significant impacts on forecasting performance. This paper presents an input variable selection method for wind speed forecasting models. The candidate input variables for various leading periods are selected and random forests (RF is employed to evaluate the importance of all variable as features. The feature subset with the best evaluation performance is selected as the optimal feature set. Then, kernel-based extreme learning machine is constructed to evaluate the performance of input variables selection based on RF. The results of the case study show that by removing the uncorrelated and redundant features, RF effectively extracts the most strongly correlated set of features from the candidate input variables. By finding the optimal feature combination to represent the original information, RF simplifies the structure of the wind speed forecasting model, shortens the training time required, and substantially improves the model’s accuracy and generalization ability, demonstrating that the input variables selected by RF are effective.

  16. Two Machine Learning Approaches for Short-Term Wind Speed Time-Series Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ak, Ronay; Fink, Olga; Zio, Enrico

    2016-08-01

    The increasing liberalization of European electricity markets, the growing proportion of intermittent renewable energy being fed into the energy grids, and also new challenges in the patterns of energy consumption (such as electric mobility) require flexible and intelligent power grids capable of providing efficient, reliable, economical, and sustainable energy production and distribution. From the supplier side, particularly, the integration of renewable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar) into the grid imposes an engineering and economic challenge because of the limited ability to control and dispatch these energy sources due to their intermittent characteristics. Time-series prediction of wind speed for wind power production is a particularly important and challenging task, wherein prediction intervals (PIs) are preferable results of the prediction, rather than point estimates, because they provide information on the confidence in the prediction. In this paper, two different machine learning approaches to assess PIs of time-series predictions are considered and compared: 1) multilayer perceptron neural networks trained with a multiobjective genetic algorithm and 2) extreme learning machines combined with the nearest neighbors approach. The proposed approaches are applied for short-term wind speed prediction from a real data set of hourly wind speed measurements for the region of Regina in Saskatchewan, Canada. Both approaches demonstrate good prediction precision and provide complementary advantages with respect to different evaluation criteria.

  17. Short-term wind speed prediction using an unscented Kalman filter based state-space support vector regression approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Kuilin; Yu, Jie

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel hybrid modeling method is proposed for short-term wind speed forecasting. • Support vector regression model is constructed to formulate nonlinear state-space framework. • Unscented Kalman filter is adopted to recursively update states under random uncertainty. • The new SVR–UKF approach is compared to several conventional methods for short-term wind speed prediction. • The proposed method demonstrates higher prediction accuracy and reliability. - Abstract: Accurate wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. Particularly, reliable short-term wind speed prediction can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, this task remains challenging due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed. In this study, unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is integrated with support vector regression (SVR) based state-space model in order to precisely update the short-term estimation of wind speed sequence. In the proposed SVR–UKF approach, support vector regression is first employed to formulate a nonlinear state-space model and then unscented Kalman filter is adopted to perform dynamic state estimation recursively on wind sequence with stochastic uncertainty. The novel SVR–UKF method is compared with artificial neural networks (ANNs), SVR, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive integrated with Kalman filter (AR-Kalman) approaches for predicting short-term wind speed sequences collected from three sites in Massachusetts, USA. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed method has much better performance in both one-step-ahead and multi-step-ahead wind speed predictions than the other approaches across all the locations

  18. A new approach to very short term wind speed prediction using k-nearest neighbor classification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yesilbudak, Mehmet; Sagiroglu, Seref; Colak, Ilhami

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Wind speed parameter was predicted in an n-tupled inputs using k-NN classification. ► The effects of input parameters, nearest neighbors and distance metrics were analyzed. ► Many useful and reasonable inferences were uncovered using the developed model. - Abstract: Wind energy is an inexhaustible energy source and wind power production has been growing rapidly in recent years. However, wind power has a non-schedulable nature due to wind speed variations. Hence, wind speed prediction is an indispensable requirement for power system operators. This paper predicts wind speed parameter in an n-tupled inputs using k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification and analyzes the effects of input parameters, nearest neighbors and distance metrics on wind speed prediction. The k-NN classification model was developed using the object oriented programming techniques and includes Manhattan and Minkowski distance metrics except from Euclidean distance metric on the contrary of literature. The k-NN classification model which uses wind direction, air temperature, atmospheric pressure and relative humidity parameters in a 4-tupled space achieved the best wind speed prediction for k = 5 in the Manhattan distance metric. Differently, the k-NN classification model which uses wind direction, air temperature and atmospheric pressure parameters in a 3-tupled inputs gave the worst wind speed prediction for k = 1 in the Minkowski distance metric

  19. Short-term wind speed prediction based on the wavelet transformation and Adaboost neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hai, Zhou; Xiang, Zhu; Haijian, Shao; Ji, Wu

    2018-03-01

    The operation of the power grid will be affected inevitably with the increasing scale of wind farm due to the inherent randomness and uncertainty, so the accurate wind speed forecasting is critical for the stability of the grid operation. Typically, the traditional forecasting method does not take into account the frequency characteristics of wind speed, which cannot reflect the nature of the wind speed signal changes result from the low generality ability of the model structure. AdaBoost neural network in combination with the multi-resolution and multi-scale decomposition of wind speed is proposed to design the model structure in order to improve the forecasting accuracy and generality ability. The experimental evaluation using the data from a real wind farm in Jiangsu province is given to demonstrate the proposed strategy can improve the robust and accuracy of the forecasted variable.

  20. Linear and non-linear autoregressive models for short-term wind speed forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lydia, M.; Suresh Kumar, S.; Immanuel Selvakumar, A.; Edwin Prem Kumar, G.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Models for wind speed prediction at 10-min intervals up to 1 h built on time-series wind speed data. • Four different multivariate models for wind speed built based on exogenous variables. • Non-linear models built using three data mining algorithms outperform the linear models. • Autoregressive models based on wind direction perform better than other models. - Abstract: Wind speed forecasting aids in estimating the energy produced from wind farms. The soaring energy demands of the world and minimal availability of conventional energy sources have significantly increased the role of non-conventional sources of energy like solar, wind, etc. Development of models for wind speed forecasting with higher reliability and greater accuracy is the need of the hour. In this paper, models for predicting wind speed at 10-min intervals up to 1 h have been built based on linear and non-linear autoregressive moving average models with and without external variables. The autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction and annual trends have been built using data obtained from Sotavento Galicia Plc. and autoregressive moving average models based on wind direction, wind shear and temperature have been built on data obtained from Centre for Wind Energy Technology, Chennai, India. While the parameters of the linear models are obtained using the Gauss–Newton algorithm, the non-linear autoregressive models are developed using three different data mining algorithms. The accuracy of the models has been measured using three performance metrics namely, the Mean Absolute Error, Root Mean Squared Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error.

  1. A hybrid wavelet transform based short-term wind speed forecasting approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jujie

    2014-01-01

    It is important to improve the accuracy of wind speed forecasting for wind parks management and wind power utilization. In this paper, a novel hybrid approach known as WTT-TNN is proposed for wind speed forecasting. In the first step of the approach, a wavelet transform technique (WTT) is used to decompose wind speed into an approximate scale and several detailed scales. In the second step, a two-hidden-layer neural network (TNN) is used to predict both approximated scale and detailed scales, respectively. In order to find the optimal network architecture, the partial autocorrelation function is adopted to determine the number of neurons in the input layer, and an experimental simulation is made to determine the number of neurons within each hidden layer in the modeling process of TNN. Afterwards, the final prediction value can be obtained by the sum of these prediction results. In this study, a WTT is employed to extract these different patterns of the wind speed and make it easier for forecasting. To evaluate the performance of the proposed approach, it is applied to forecast Hexi Corridor of China's wind speed. Simulation results in four different cases show that the proposed method increases wind speed forecasting accuracy.

  2. A hybrid approach for short-term forecasting of wind speed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatinati, Sivanagaraja; Veluvolu, Kalyana C

    2013-01-01

    We propose a hybrid method for forecasting the wind speed. The wind speed data is first decomposed into intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with empirical mode decomposition. Based on the partial autocorrelation factor of the individual IMFs, adaptive methods are then employed for the prediction of IMFs. Least squares-support vector machines are employed for IMFs with weak correlation factor, and autoregressive model with Kalman filter is employed for IMFs with high correlation factor. Multistep prediction with the proposed hybrid method resulted in improved forecasting. Results with wind speed data show that the proposed method provides better forecasting compared to the existing methods.

  3. Short-term prediction method of wind speed series based on fractal interpolation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiu, Chunbo; Wang, Tiantian; Tian, Meng; Li, Yanqing; Cheng, Yi

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed. • The chaos optimization algorithm is used to obtain the iterated function system. • The fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction of wind speed series is performed. - Abstract: In order to improve the prediction performance of the wind speed series, the rescaled range analysis is used to analyze the fractal characteristics of the wind speed series. An improved fractal interpolation prediction method is proposed to predict the wind speed series whose Hurst exponents are close to 1. An optimization function which is composed of the interpolation error and the constraint items of the vertical scaling factors in the fractal interpolation iterated function system is designed. The chaos optimization algorithm is used to optimize the function to resolve the optimal vertical scaling factors. According to the self-similarity characteristic and the scale invariance, the fractal extrapolate interpolation prediction can be performed by extending the fractal characteristic from internal interval to external interval. Simulation results show that the fractal interpolation prediction method can get better prediction result than others for the wind speed series with the fractal characteristic, and the prediction performance of the proposed method can be improved further because the fractal characteristic of its iterated function system is similar to that of the predicted wind speed series

  4. Short-term Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Speed Using Stochastic Differential Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Morales González, Juan Miguel; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg

    2016-01-01

    and uncertain nature. In this paper, we propose a modeling framework for wind speed that is based on stochastic differential equations. We show that stochastic differential equations allow us to naturally capture the time dependence structure of wind speed prediction errors (from 1 up to 24 hours ahead) and......It is widely accepted today that probabilistic forecasts of wind power production constitute valuable information for both wind power producers and power system operators to economically exploit this form of renewable energy, while mitigating the potential adverse effects related to its variable......, most importantly, to derive point and quantile forecasts, predictive distributions, and time-path trajectories (also referred to as scenarios or ensemble forecasts), all by one single stochastic differential equation model characterized by a few parameters....

  5. Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics – Application to offshore very short-term forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gallego, Cristobal; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these e......Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some...... on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power...... transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different...

  6. Noise model based ν-support vector regression with its application to short-term wind speed forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Qinghua; Zhang, Shiguang; Xie, Zongxia; Mi, Jusheng; Wan, Jie

    2014-09-01

    Support vector regression (SVR) techniques are aimed at discovering a linear or nonlinear structure hidden in sample data. Most existing regression techniques take the assumption that the error distribution is Gaussian. However, it was observed that the noise in some real-world applications, such as wind power forecasting and direction of the arrival estimation problem, does not satisfy Gaussian distribution, but a beta distribution, Laplacian distribution, or other models. In these cases the current regression techniques are not optimal. According to the Bayesian approach, we derive a general loss function and develop a technique of the uniform model of ν-support vector regression for the general noise model (N-SVR). The Augmented Lagrange Multiplier method is introduced to solve N-SVR. Numerical experiments on artificial data sets, UCI data and short-term wind speed prediction are conducted. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed technique. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. A Hybrid Method Based on Singular Spectrum Analysis, Firefly Algorithm, and BP Neural Network for Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuyang Gao

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available With increasing importance being attached to big data mining, analysis, and forecasting in the field of wind energy, how to select an optimization model to improve the forecasting accuracy of the wind speed time series is not only an extremely challenging problem, but also a problem of concern for economic forecasting. The artificial intelligence model is widely used in forecasting and data processing, but the individual back-propagation artificial neural network cannot always satisfy the time series forecasting needs. Thus, a hybrid forecasting approach has been proposed in this study, which consists of data preprocessing, parameter optimization and a neural network for advancing the accuracy of short-term wind speed forecasting. According to the case study, in which the data are collected from Peng Lai, a city located in China, the simulation results indicate that the hybrid forecasting method yields better predictions compared to the individual BP, which indicates that the hybrid method exhibits stronger forecasting ability.

  8. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using the Data Processing Approach and the Support Vector Machine Model Optimized by the Improved Cuckoo Search Parameter Estimation Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Power systems could be at risk when the power-grid collapse accident occurs. As a clean and renewable resource, wind energy plays an increasingly vital role in reducing air pollution and wind power generation becomes an important way to produce electrical power. Therefore, accurate wind power and wind speed forecasting are in need. In this research, a novel short-term wind speed forecasting portfolio has been proposed using the following three procedures: (I data preprocessing: apart from the regular normalization preprocessing, the data are preprocessed through empirical model decomposition (EMD, which reduces the effect of noise on the wind speed data; (II artificially intelligent parameter optimization introduction: the unknown parameters in the support vector machine (SVM model are optimized by the cuckoo search (CS algorithm; (III parameter optimization approach modification: an improved parameter optimization approach, called the SDCS model, based on the CS algorithm and the steepest descent (SD method is proposed. The comparison results show that the simple and effective portfolio EMD-SDCS-SVM produces promising predictions and has better performance than the individual forecasting components, with very small root mean squared errors and mean absolute percentage errors.

  9. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Study and Its Application Using a Hybrid Model Optimized by Cuckoo Search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuejun Chen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The support vector regression (SVR and neural network (NN are both new tools from the artificial intelligence field, which have been successfully exploited to solve various problems especially for time series forecasting. However, traditional SVR and NN cannot accurately describe intricate time series with the characteristics of high volatility, nonstationarity, and nonlinearity, such as wind speed and electricity price time series. This study proposes an ensemble approach on the basis of 5-3 Hanning filter (5-3H and wavelet denoising (WD techniques, in conjunction with artificial intelligence optimization based SVR and NN model. So as to confirm the validity of the proposed model, two applicative case studies are conducted in terms of wind speed series from Gansu Province in China and electricity price from New South Wales in Australia. The computational results reveal that cuckoo search (CS outperforms both PSO and GA with respect to convergence and global searching capacity, and the proposed CS-based hybrid model is effective and feasible in generating more reliable and skillful forecasts.

  10. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  11. Hardware and software for automating the process of studying high-speed gas flows in wind tunnels of short-term action

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yakovlev, V. V.; Shakirov, S. R.; Gilyov, V. M.; Shpak, S. I.

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we propose a variant of constructing automation systems for aerodynamic experiments on the basis of modern hardware-software means of domestic development. The structure of the universal control and data collection system for performing experiments in wind tunnels of continuous, periodic or short-term action is proposed. The proposed hardware and software development tools for ICT SB RAS and ITAM SB RAS, as well as subsystems based on them, can be widely applied to any scientific and experimental installations, as well as to the automation of technological processes in production.

  12. Short-term landfill methane emissions dependency on wind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delkash, Madjid; Zhou, Bowen; Han, Byunghyun; Chow, Fotini K; Rella, Chris W; Imhoff, Paul T

    2016-09-01

    Short-term (2-10h) variations of whole-landfill methane emissions have been observed in recent field studies using the tracer dilution method for emissions measurement. To investigate the cause of these variations, the tracer dilution method is applied using 1-min emissions measurements at Sandtown Landfill (Delaware, USA) for a 2-h measurement period. An atmospheric dispersion model is developed for this field test site, which is the first application of such modeling to evaluate atmospheric effects on gas plume transport from landfills. The model is used to examine three possible causes of observed temporal emissions variability: temporal variability of surface wind speed affecting whole landfill emissions, spatial variability of emissions due to local wind speed variations, and misaligned tracer gas release and methane emissions locations. At this site, atmospheric modeling indicates that variation in tracer dilution method emissions measurements may be caused by whole-landfill emissions variation with wind speed. Field data collected over the time period of the atmospheric model simulations corroborate this result: methane emissions are correlated with wind speed on the landfill surface with R(2)=0.51 for data 2.5m above ground, or R(2)=0.55 using data 85m above ground, with emissions increasing by up to a factor of 2 for an approximately 30% increase in wind speed. Although the atmospheric modeling and field test are conducted at a single landfill, the results suggest that wind-induced emissions may affect tracer dilution method emissions measurements at other landfills. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Short-term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Alfred K.

    2003-01-01

    , and to implement these models and methods in an on-line software application. The economical value of having predictions available is also briefly considered. The summary report outlines the background and motivation for developing wind power prediction models. The meteorological theory which is relevant......The present thesis consists of 10 research papers published during the period 1997-2002 together with a summary report. The objective of the work described in the thesis is to develop models and methods for calculation of high accuracy predictions of wind power generated electricity...

  14. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method

    OpenAIRE

    Wen-Yeau Chang

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help power system operators reduce the risk of an unreliable electricity supply. This paper proposes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO) based hybrid forecasting method for short-term wi...

  15. Application of Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis to Observation Targeting for Short-term Wind Speed Forecasting in the Tehachapi Region Winter Season

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zack, John [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Natenberg, Eddie [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Young, Steve [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Van Knowe, Glenn [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Waight, Ken [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Manobainco, John [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Kamath, Chandrika [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2010-10-20

    This study extends the wind power forecast sensitivity work done by Zack et al. (2010a, b) in two prior research efforts. Zack et al. (2010a, b) investigated the relative predictive value and optimal combination of different variables/locations from correlated sensitivity patterns. Their work involved developing the Multiple Observation Optimization Algorithm (MOOA) and applying the algorithm to the results obtained from the Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis (ESA) method (Ancell and Hakim 2007; Torn and Hakim 2008).

  16. Familiarity speeds up visual short-term memory consolidation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Weizhen; Zhang, Weiwei

    2017-06-01

    Existing long-term memory (LTM) can boost the number of retained representations over a short delay in visual short-term memory (VSTM). However, it is unclear whether and how prior LTM affects the initial process of transforming fragile sensory inputs into durable VSTM representations (i.e., VSTM consolidation). The consolidation speed hypothesis predicts faster consolidation for familiar relative to unfamiliar stimuli. Alternatively, the perceptual boost hypothesis predicts that the advantage in perceptual processing of familiar stimuli should add a constant boost for familiar stimuli during VSTM consolidation. To test these competing hypotheses, the present study examined how the large variance in participants' prior multimedia experience with Pokémon affected VSTM for Pokémon. In Experiment 1, the amount of time allowed for VSTM consolidation was manipulated by presenting consolidation masks at different intervals after the onset of to-be-remembered Pokémon characters. First-generation Pokémon characters that participants were more familiar with were consolidated faster into VSTM as compared with recent-generation Pokémon characters that participants were less familiar with. These effects were absent in participants who were unfamiliar with both generations of Pokémon. Although familiarity also increased the number of retained Pokémon characters when consolidation was uninterrupted but still incomplete due to insufficient encoding time in Experiment 1, this capacity effect was absent in Experiment 2 when consolidation was allowed to complete with sufficient encoding time. Together, these results support the consolidation speed hypothesis over the perceptual boost hypothesis and highlight the importance of assessing experimental effects on both processing and representation aspects of VSTM. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  17. A robust combination approach for short-term wind speed forecasting and analysis – Combination of the ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ELM (Extreme Learning Machine), SVM (Support Vector Machine) and LSSVM (Least Square SVM) forecasts using a GPR (Gaussian Process Regression) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Jianzhou; Hu, Jianming

    2015-01-01

    With the increasing importance of wind power as a component of power systems, the problems induced by the stochastic and intermittent nature of wind speed have compelled system operators and researchers to search for more reliable techniques to forecast wind speed. This paper proposes a combination model for probabilistic short-term wind speed forecasting. In this proposed hybrid approach, EWT (Empirical Wavelet Transform) is employed to extract meaningful information from a wind speed series by designing an appropriate wavelet filter bank. The GPR (Gaussian Process Regression) model is utilized to combine independent forecasts generated by various forecasting engines (ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), ELM (Extreme Learning Machine), SVM (Support Vector Machine) and LSSVM (Least Square SVM)) in a nonlinear way rather than the commonly used linear way. The proposed approach provides more probabilistic information for wind speed predictions besides improving the forecasting accuracy for single-value predictions. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated with wind speed data from two wind farms in China. The results indicate that the individual forecasting engines do not consistently forecast short-term wind speed for the two sites, and the proposed combination method can generate a more reliable and accurate forecast. - Highlights: • The proposed approach can make probabilistic modeling for wind speed series. • The proposed approach adapts to the time-varying characteristic of the wind speed. • The hybrid approach can extract the meaningful components from the wind speed series. • The proposed method can generate adaptive, reliable and more accurate forecasting results. • The proposed model combines four independent forecasting engines in a nonlinear way.

  18. Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - Knowledge Engineering and Decision Support Research Center

    2012-07-01

    This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status are used. Besides the new operation conditions, the most accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of short-term and very short-term methods are used. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented. (orig.)

  19. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  20. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Innovazione, Universita del Salento, Via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce (Italy)

    2011-04-15

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  1. Stochastic Optimal Wind Power Bidding Strategy in Short-Term Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    Due to the fluctuating nature and non-perfect forecast of the wind power, the wind power owners are penalized for the imbalance costs of the regulation, when they trade wind power in the short-term liberalized electricity market. Therefore, in this paper a formulation of an imbalance cost...... minimization problem for trading wind power in the short-term electricity market is described, to help the wind power owners optimize their bidding strategy. Stochastic optimization and a Monte Carlo method are adopted to find the optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the short-term electricity...... market in order to deal with the uncertainty of the regulation price, the activated regulation of the power system and the forecasted wind power generation. The Danish short-term electricity market and a wind farm in western Denmark are chosen as study cases due to the high wind power penetration here...

  2. Short-term Wind Forecasting at Wind Farms using WRF-LES and Actuator Disk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkil, Gokhan

    2017-04-01

    Short-term wind forecasts are obtained for a wind farm on a mountainous terrain using WRF-LES. Multi-scale simulations are also performed using different PBL parameterizations. Turbines are parameterized using Actuator Disc Model. LES models improved the forecasts. Statistical error analysis is performed and ramp events are analyzed. Complex topography of the study area affects model performance, especially the accuracy of wind forecasts were poor for cross valley-mountain flows. By means of LES, we gain new knowledge about the sources of spatial and temporal variability of wind fluctuations such as the configuration of wind turbines.

  3. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Yeau Chang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help power system operators reduce the risk of an unreliable electricity supply. This paper proposes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO based hybrid forecasting method for short-term wind power forecasting. The hybrid forecasting method combines the persistence method, the back propagation neural network, and the radial basis function (RBF neural network. The EPSO algorithm is employed to optimize the weight coefficients in the hybrid forecasting method. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the method is tested on the practical information of wind power generation of a wind energy conversion system (WECS installed on the Taichung coast of Taiwan. Comparisons of forecasting performance are made with the individual forecasting methods. Good agreements between the realistic values and forecasting values are obtained; the test results show the proposed forecasting method is accurate and reliable.

  4. Accurate Short-Term Power Forecasting of Wind Turbines: The Case of Jeju Island’s Wind Farm

    OpenAIRE

    BeomJun Park; Jin Hur

    2017-01-01

    Short-term wind power forecasting is a technique which tells system operators how much wind power can be expected at a specific time. Due to the increasing penetration of wind generating resources into the power grids, short-term wind power forecasting is becoming an important issue for grid integration analysis. The high reliability of wind power forecasting can contribute to the successful integration of wind generating resources into the power grids. To guarantee the reliability of forecas...

  5. Forecasting short-term wind farm production in complex terrain. Volume 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    LeBlanc, M.

    2005-01-01

    Wind energy forecasting adds financial value to wind farms and may soon become a regulatory requirement. A robust information technology system is essential for addressing industry demands. Various forecasting methodologies for short-term wind production in complex terrain were presented. Numerical weather predictions were discussed with reference to supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) system site measurements. Forecasting methods using wind speed, direction, temperature and pressure, as well as issues concerning statistical modelling were presented. Model output statistics and neural networks were reviewed, as well as significant components of error. Results from a Garrad Hassan forecaster with a European wind farm were presented, including wind speed evaluation, and forecast horizon for T + 1 hours, T + 12 hours, and T + 36 hours. It was suggested that buy prices often reflect the cost of under-prediction, and that forecasting has more potential where the spread is greatest. Accurate T + 19 hours to T + 31 hours could enable participation in the day-ahead market, which is less volatile and prices are usually better. Estimates of possible profits per annum through the use of GH forecaster power predictions were presented, calculated over and above spilling power to the grid. It was concluded that accurate forecasts combined with certainty evaluation enables the optimization of wind energy in the market, and is applicable to a wide range of weather regimes and terrain types. It was suggested that site feedback is essential for good forecasts at short horizons, and that the value of forecasting is dependent on the market. refs., tabs., figs

  6. An Advanced Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of the Generation of Wind Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bracale

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Currently, among renewable distributed generation systems, wind generators are receiving a great deal of interest due to the great economic, technological, and environmental incentives they involve. However, the uncertainties due to the intermittent nature of wind energy make it difficult to operate electrical power systems optimally and make decisions that satisfy the needs of all the stakeholders of the electricity energy market. Thus, there is increasing interest determining how to forecast wind power production accurately. Most the methods that have been published in the relevant literature provided deterministic forecasts even though great interest has been focused recently on probabilistic forecast methods. In this paper, an advanced probabilistic method is proposed for short-term forecasting of wind power production. A mixture of two Weibull distributions was used as a probability function to model the uncertainties associated with wind speed. Then, a Bayesian inference approach with a particularly-effective, autoregressive, integrated, moving-average model was used to determine the parameters of the mixture Weibull distribution. Numerical applications also are presented to provide evidence of the forecasting performance of the Bayesian-based approach.

  7. Short-term prediction of local wind conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Landberg, L.

    2001-01-01

    This paper will describe a system which predicts the expected power output of a number of wind farms. The system is automatic and operates on-line. The paper will quantify the accuracy of the predictions and will also give examples of the performance for specific storm events. An actual...

  8. Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

  9. Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

  10. From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

    2009-01-01

    on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. However, this additional information may be paramount for a large class of time-dependent and multistage decision-making problems, e.g. optimal operation of combined wind-storage systems or multiple-market trading with different gate closures......Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with highly valuable information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform....... This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits the generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind generation that accounts for both the interdependence structure of prediction errors and the predictive distributions of wind power production. The method is based on the conversion...

  11. Developing a Local Neurofuzzy Model for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Faghihnia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Large scale integration of wind generation capacity into power systems introduces operational challenges due to wind power uncertainty and variability. Therefore, accurate wind power forecast is important for reliable and economic operation of the power systems. Complexities and nonlinearities exhibited by wind power time series necessitate use of elaborative and sophisticated approaches for wind power forecasting. In this paper, a local neurofuzzy (LNF approach, trained by the polynomial model tree (POLYMOT learning algorithm, is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. The LNF approach is constructed based on the contribution of local polynomial models which can efficiently model wind power generation. Data from Sotavento wind farm in Spain was used to validate the proposed LNF approach. Comparison between performance of the proposed approach and several recently published approaches illustrates capability of the LNF model for accurate wind power forecasting.

  12. European Short-term Electricity Market Designs under High Penetration of Wind Power

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chaves Avila, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    The EU has ambitious policies for decarbonization of the electricity sector. Due to recent technological developments, wind power already represents a significant share of the generation mix in some European countries. As a result, short-term electricity markets and balancing arrangements must be

  13. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

    2005-01-01

    Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

  14. Short Term Energy Storage for Grid Support in Wind Power Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Ioan; Stan, Ana-Irina; Diosi, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The penetration of wind power into the power system has been increasing in the recent years. Therefore, a lot of concerns related to the reliable operation of the power system have been addressed. An attractive solution to minimize the limitations faced by the wind power grid integration, and thus...... to increase the power system stability and the energy quality, is to integrate energy storage devices into wind power plants. This paper gives an overview of the state-of-the-art short-term energy storage devices and presents several applications which can be provided by the energy storage device - wind power...

  15. Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

    2007-01-01

    Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform...... on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind...

  16. Wavelet decomposition and neuro-fuzzy hybrid system applied to short-term wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez-Jimenez, L.A.; Mendoza-Villena, M. [La Rioja Univ., Logrono (Spain). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Ramirez-Rosado, I.J.; Abebe, B. [Zaragoza Univ., Zaragoza (Spain). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2010-03-09

    Wind energy has become increasingly popular as a renewable energy source. However, the integration of wind farms in the electrical power systems presents several problems, including the chaotic fluctuation of wind flow which results in highly varied power generation from a wind farm. An accurate forecast of wind power generation has important consequences in the economic operation of the integrated power system. This paper presented a new statistical short-term wind power forecasting model based on wavelet decomposition and neuro-fuzzy systems optimized with a genetic algorithm. The paper discussed wavelet decomposition; the proposed wind power forecasting model; and computer results. The original time series, the mean electric power generated in a wind farm, was decomposing into wavelet coefficients that were utilized as inputs for the forecasting model. The forecasting results obtained with the final models were compared to those obtained with traditional forecasting models showing a better performance for all the forecasting horizons. 13 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs.

  17. Short term performance and effect of speed humps on pavement condition of Alexandria Governorate roads

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wael Bekheet

    2014-12-01

    Some performance trends were observed and found to be statistically significant, including superior short-term performance of projects with good or average construction QC records when compared to poor construction QC records. Raveling was the most widely observed distress, while load-related distresses were not common. The analysis also showed that the presence of improper speed humps significantly affected the pavement condition, reducing the PCI of the pavement sections by up to 19 PCI points.

  18. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, A.; Crespo, A.; Navarro, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art oil models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought...... on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly...

  19. Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haixiang Zang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, runs test (RT, and relevance vector machine (RVM. First, in order to reduce the complexity of data, the original wind power sequence is decomposed into a plurality of intrinsic mode function (IMF components and residual (RES component by using EEMD. Next, we use the RT method to reconstruct the components and obtain three new components characterized by the fine-to-coarse order. Finally, we obtain the overall forecasting results (with preestablished confidence levels by superimposing the forecasting results of each new component. Our results show that, compared with existing methods, our proposed short-term interval forecasting method has less forecasting errors, narrower interval widths, and larger interval coverage percentages. Ultimately, our forecasting model is more suitable for engineering applications and other forecasting methods for new energy.

  20. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Clustering Pre-Calculated CFD Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yimei Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available To meet the increasing wind power forecasting (WPF demands of newly built wind farms without historical data, physical WPF methods are widely used. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD pre-calculated flow fields (CPFF-based WPF is a promising physical approach, which can balance well the competing demands of computational efficiency and accuracy. To enhance its adaptability for wind farms in complex terrain, a WPF method combining wind turbine clustering with CPFF is first proposed where the wind turbines in the wind farm are clustered and a forecasting is undertaken for each cluster. K-means, hierarchical agglomerative and spectral analysis methods are used to establish the wind turbine clustering models. The Silhouette Coefficient, Calinski-Harabaz index and within-between index are proposed as criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of the established clustering models. Based on different clustering methods and schemes, various clustering databases are built for clustering pre-calculated CFD (CPCC-based short-term WPF. For the wind farm case studied, clustering evaluation criteria show that hierarchical agglomerative clustering has reasonable results, spectral clustering is better and K-means gives the best performance. The WPF results produced by different clustering databases also prove the effectiveness of the three evaluation criteria in turn. The newly developed CPCC model has a much higher WPF accuracy than the CPFF model without using clustering techniques, both on temporal and spatial scales. The research provides supports for both the development and improvement of short-term physical WPF systems.

  1. Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. V. Drisya

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

  2. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

  3. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-01-15

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches. (author)

  4. Economic evaluation of short-term wind power forecast in ERCOT. Preliminary results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Brinkman, Greg; Ela, Erik; Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Banunarayanan, Venkat; Nasir, Saleh [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Freedman, Jeff [AWS Truepower, Albany, NY (United States)

    2012-07-01

    A number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the monetary value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operation decisions. Historically, these studies have shown that large cost savings could be gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter term (0- to 6-h ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to form the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators. In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined and the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed. (orig.)

  5. The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barthelmie, R.J.; Murray, F.; Pryor, S.C.

    2008-01-01

    In the UK market, the total price of renewable electricity is made up of the Renewables Obligation Certificate and the price achieved for the electricity. Accurate forecasting improves the price if electricity is traded via the power exchange. In order to understand the size of wind farm for which short-term forecasting becomes economically viable, we develop a model for wind energy. Simulations were carried out for 2003 electricity prices for different forecast accuracies and strategies. The results indicate that it is possible to increase the price obtained by around pound 5/MWh which is about 14% of the electricity price in 2003 and about 6% of the total price. We show that the economic benefit of using short-term forecasting is also dependant on the accuracy and cost of purchasing the forecast. As the amount of wind energy requiring integration into the grid increases, short-term forecasting becomes more important to both wind farm owners and the transmission/distribution operators. (author)

  6. Short-term optimal wind power generation capacity in liberalized electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Roescher, Mark; Larisson, Carlos; Garces, Francisco

    2007-01-01

    Mainly because of environmental concerns and fuel price uncertainties, considerable amounts of wind-based generation capacity are being added to some deregulated power systems. The rapid wind development registered in some countries has essentially been driven by strong subsidizing programs. Since wind investments are commonly isolated from market signals, installed wind capacity can be higher than optimal, leading to distortions of the power prices with a consequent loss of social welfare. In this work, the influence of wind generation on power prices in the framework of a liberalized electricity market has been assessed by means of stochastic simulation techniques. The developed methodology allows investigating the maximal wind capacity that would be profitably deployed if wind investments were subject to market conditions only. For this purpose, stochastic variables determining power prices are accurately modeled. A test system resembling the size and characteristics of the German power system has been selected for this study. The expected value of the optimal, short-term wind capacity is evaluated for a considerable number of random realizations of power prices. The impact of dispersing the wind capacity over statistical independent wind sites has also been evaluated. The simulation results reveal that fuel prices, installation and financing costs of wind investments are very influential parameters on the maximal wind capacity that might be accommodated in a market-based manner

  7. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benets from...... their use in decision-making. So far however, their verication is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verication tools, as well...... as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verication are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools....

  8. An adaptive short-term prediction scheme for wind energy storage management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blonbou, Ruddy; Monjoly, Stephanie; Dorville, Jean-Francois

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → We develop a real time algorithm for grid-connected wind energy storage management. → The method aims to guarantee, with ±5% error margin, the power sent to the grid. → Dynamic scheduling of energy storage is based on short-term energy prediction. → Accurate predictions reduce the need in storage capacity. -- Abstract: Efficient forecasting scheme that includes some information on the likelihood of the forecast and based on a better knowledge of the wind variations characteristics along with their influence on power output variation is of key importance for the optimal integration of wind energy in island's power system. In the Guadeloupean archipelago (French West-Indies), with a total wind power capacity of 25 MW; wind energy can represent up to 5% of the instantaneous electricity production. At this level, wind energy contribution can be equivalent to the current network primary control reserve, which causes balancing difficult. The share of wind energy is due to grow even further since the objective is set to reach 118 MW by 2020. It is an absolute evidence for the network operator that due to security concerns of the electrical grid, the share of wind generation should not increase unless solutions are found to solve the prediction problem. The University of French West-Indies and Guyana has developed a short-term wind energy prediction scheme that uses artificial neural networks and adaptive learning procedures based on Bayesian approach and Gaussian approximation. This paper reports the results of the evaluation of the proposed approach; the improvement with respect to the simple persistent prediction model was globally good. A discussion on how such a tool combined with energy storage capacity could help to smooth the wind power variation and improve the wind energy penetration rate into island utility network is also proposed.

  9. Intensive video gaming improves encoding speed to visual short-term memory in young male adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilms, Inge L; Petersen, Anders; Vangkilde, Signe

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to measure the effect of action video gaming on central elements of visual attention using Bundesen's (1990) Theory of Visual Attention. To examine the cognitive impact of action video gaming, we tested basic functions of visual attention in 42 young male adults. Participants were divided into three groups depending on the amount of time spent playing action video games: non-players (15h/month, N=20). All participants were tested in three tasks which tap central functions of visual attention and short-term memory: a test based on the Theory of Visual Attention (TVA), an enumeration test and finally the Attentional Network Test (ANT). The results show that action video gaming does not seem to impact the capacity of visual short-term memory. However, playing action video games does seem to improve the encoding speed of visual information into visual short-term memory and the improvement does seem to depend on the time devoted to gaming. This suggests that intense action video gaming improves basic attentional functioning and that this improvement generalizes into other activities. The implications of these findings for cognitive rehabilitation training are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Effective visual short-term storage capacity and speed of encoding are affected by arousal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik; Bundesen, Claus

    2011-01-01

    of encoding into visual short-term memory (VSTM) increased with the level of arousal in a single-stimulus identification experiment. Here we present a whole-report experiment corroborating the finding that speed of encoding stimulus items (letters) into VSTM increases with the level of arousal. However....... Thus, in terms of the TVA model (Bundesen, 1990), partial report experiments should show that, at high levels of arousal, parameter a (the ratio of the attentional weight of a distractor to the attentional weight of a target) increases....

  11. Short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal by neural networks and wavelet transform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-04-15

    This paper proposes artificial neural networks in combination with wavelet transform for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

  12. Short-term forecasting of thunderstorms at Kennedy Space Center, based on the surface wind field

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew I.; Lopez, Raul E.; Holle, Ronald L.; Daugherty, John R.; Ortiz, Robert

    1989-01-01

    Techniques incorporating wind convergence that can be used for the short-term prediction of thunderstorm development are described. With these techniques, the convergence signal is sensed by the wind network array 15 to 90 min before actual storm development. Particular attention is given to the convergence cell technique (which has been applied at the Kennedy Space Center) where each convective region is analyzed independently. It is noted that, while the monitoring of areal and cellular convergence can be used to help locate the seeds of developing thunderstorms and pinpoint the lightning threat areas, this forecasting aid cannot be used in isolation.

  13. A Latent Variable Analysis of Working Memory Capacity, Short-Term Memory Capacity, Processing Speed, and General Fluid Intelligence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conway, Andrew R. A.; Cowan, Nelsin; Bunting, Michael F.; Therriault, David J.; Minkoff, Scott R. B.

    2002-01-01

    Studied the interrelationships among general fluid intelligence, short-term memory capacity, working memory capacity, and processing speed in 120 young adults and used structural equation modeling to determine the best predictor of general fluid intelligence. Results suggest that working memory capacity, but not short-term memory capacity or…

  14. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  15. Short-term wind power forecasting: probabilistic and space-time aspects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tastu, Julija

    work deals with the proposal and evaluation of new mathematical models and forecasting methods for short-term wind power forecasting, accounting for space-time dynamics based on geographically distributed information. Different forms of power predictions are considered, starting from traditional point...... into the corresponding models are analysed. As a final step, emphasis is placed on generating space-time trajectories: this calls for the prediction of joint multivariate predictive densities describing wind power generation at a number of distributed locations and for a number of successive lead times. In addition......Optimal integration of wind energy into power systems calls for high quality wind power predictions. State-of-the-art forecasting systems typically provide forecasts for every location individually, without taking into account information coming from the neighbouring territories. It is however...

  16. Wind characteristics on the Yucatan Peninsula based on short term data from meteorological stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soler-Bientz, Rolando; Watson, Simon; Infield, David

    2010-01-01

    Due to the availability of sparsely populated and flat open terrain, the Yucatan Peninsula located in eastern Mexico is a promising region from the perspective of wind energy development. Study of the diurnal and seasonal wind resource is an important stage in the move towards commercial exploitation of wind power in this Latin American region. An analysis of the characteristics of the wind resource of the Yucatan Peninsula is presented in this paper, based on 10 min averaged wind speed data from nine meteorological stations, between 2000 and 2007. Hourly and monthly patterns of the main environmental parameters have been examined. Highly directional behaviour was identified that reflects the influence of winds coming from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The characteristics of the wind speed variation observed at the studied sites reflected their proximity to the coast and whether they were influenced by wind coming predominantly from over the land or predominantly from over the sea. The atmospheric stability over the eastern seas of the Yucatan Peninsula was also analysed to assess thermal effects for different wind directions. The findings were consistent with the variation in average wind speeds observed at the coastal sites where winds came predominantly from over the sea. The research presented here is to be used as a basis for a wind atlas for the Yucatan Peninsula.

  17. Comparison of two new short-term wind-power forecasting systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain); Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of La Rioja, Logrono (Spain); Monteiro, Claudio; Sousa, Joao; Bessa, Ricardo [FEUP, Fac. Engenharia Univ. Porto (Portugal)]|[INESC - Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores do Porto, Porto (Portugal)

    2009-07-15

    This paper presents a comparison of two new advanced statistical short-term wind-power forecasting systems developed by two independent research teams. The input variables used in both systems were the same: forecasted meteorological variable values obtained from a numerical weather prediction model; and electric power-generation registers from the SCADA system of the wind farm. Both systems are described in detail and the forecasting results compared, revealing great similarities, although the proposed structures of the two systems are different. The forecast horizon for both systems is 72 h, allowing the use of the forecasted values in electric market operations, as diary and intra-diary power generation bid offers, and in wind-farm maintenance planning. (author)

  18. Very-short-term wind power probabilistic forecasts by sparse vector autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dowell, Jethro; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    A spatio-temporal method for producing very-shortterm parametric probabilistic wind power forecasts at a large number of locations is presented. Smart grids containing tens, or hundreds, of wind generators require skilled very-short-term forecasts to operate effectively, and spatial information...... is highly desirable. In addition, probabilistic forecasts are widely regarded as necessary for optimal power system management as they quantify the uncertainty associated with point forecasts. Here we work within a parametric framework based on the logit-normal distribution and forecast its parameters....... The location parameter for multiple wind farms is modelled as a vector-valued spatiotemporal process, and the scale parameter is tracked by modified exponential smoothing. A state-of-the-art technique for fitting sparse vector autoregressive models is employed to model the location parameter and demonstrates...

  19. Wind speed estimation using multilayer perceptron

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Velo, Ramón; López, Paz; Maseda, Francisco

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • We present a method for determining the average wind speed using neural networks. • We use data from that site in the short term and data from other nearby stations. • The inputs used in the ANN were wind speed and direction data from a station. • The method allows knowing the wind speed without topographical data. - Abstract: Wind speed knowledge is prerequisite in the siting of wind turbines. In consequence the wind energy use requires meticulous and specified knowledge of the wind characteristics at a location. This paper presents a method for determining the annual average wind speed at a complex terrain site by using neural networks, when only short term data are available for that site. This information is useful for preliminary calculations of the wind resource at a remote area having only a short time period of wind measurements measurement in a site. Artificial neural networks are useful for implementing non-linear process variables over time, and therefore are a useful tool for estimating the wind speed. The neural network used is multilayer perceptron with three layers and the supervised learning algorithm used is backpropagation. The inputs used in the neural network were wind speed and direction data from a single station, and the training patterns used correspond to sixty days data. The results obtained by simulating the annual average wind speed at the selected site based on data from nearby stations with correlation coefficients above 0.5 were satisfactory, compared with actual values. Reliable estimations were obtained, with errors below 6%

  20. Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

    2017-05-01

    This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

  1. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinson, P.; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Presentation of the desirable properties of wind power generation scenarios. ► Description of various evaluation frameworks (univariate, multivariate, diagnostic). ► Highlighting of the properties of current approaches to scenario generation. ► Guidelines for future evaluation/benchmark exercises. -- Abstract: Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.

  2. Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power with generalized logit-Normal distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    and probability masses at the bounds. Both auto-regressive and conditional parametric auto-regressive models are considered for the dynamics of their location and scale parameters. Estimation is performed in a recursive least squares framework with exponential forgetting. The superiority of this proposal over......Very-short-term probabilistic forecasts, which are essential for an optimal management of wind generation, ought to account for the non-linear and double-bounded nature of that stochastic process. They take here the form of discrete–continuous mixtures of generalized logit–normal distributions...

  3. Self-construal priming affects speed of retrieval from short-term memory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin A Macdonald

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of collective or individual self-construal priming on recall in a short-term memory (STM task. We primed participants to either their individual or their collective self-construals or a neutral control condition. Participants then completed a STM retrieval task using either random or patterned digit strings. Findings revealed that priming an individual self-construal resulted in faster retrieval of information from STM for both stimulus types. These results indicate that individual self-accessibility improves retrieval speed of digits from STM, regardless of set configuration. More broadly, the present findings extend prior research by adding further evidence of the effects of self-construal priming on cognitive information processing.

  4. Energy Storage on the Grid and the Short-term Variability of Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hittinger, Eric Stephen

    profitability of wind farms. We find that market scenarios using existing price signals to motivate wind to reduce variability allow wind generators to participate in variability reduction when the market conditions are favorable, and can reduce short-term (30-minute) fluctuations while having little effect on wind farm revenue.

  5. Development and testing of an innovative short-term large wind ramp forecasting system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zack, J.W. [AWS Truepower LLC, Troy, NY (United States)

    2010-07-01

    This PowerPoint presentation discussed a ramp forecasting tool designed for use in a region of Texas with a high wind-generating capacity. Large system-wide ramps frequently occur in the region, and curtailments are common due to transmission constraints. The average hourly load of the power system is 32,101 MW. Wind power capacity in the region is 9382 MW. However, actual production rarely exceeds 6500 MW due to the curtailments. The short-term ramp forecasting tool was designed to aid in grid management decisions for the 0-6 hour ahead period as well as to address issues related to wind farm time series data and the lack of situational awareness information. The tool provided rapid updates for grid point wind analysis with feature detection and tracking algorithms and a rapid update cycle model. The tool also featured a suite of web-based applications that included deterministic ramp even forecasts, power production time series forecasts, and situational awareness products that are updated every 15 minutes. A performance evaluation study of the tool was provided. tabs., figs.

  6. Trading wind generation from short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Chevallier, Christophe; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fluctuating nature of the wind resource, a wind power producer participating in a liberalized electricity market is subject to penalties related to regulation costs. Accurate forecasts of wind generation are therefore paramount for reducing such penalties and thus maximizing revenue......, as well as on modeling of the sensitivity a wind power producer may have to regulation costs. The benefits resulting from the application of these strategies are clearly demonstrated on the test case of the participation of a multi-MW wind farm in the Dutch electricity market over a year....... participation. Such strategies permit to further increase revenues and thus enhance competitiveness of wind generation compared to other forms of dispatchable generation. This paper formulates a general methodology for deriving optimal bidding strategies based on probabilistic forecasts of wind generation...

  7. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Alexandre; Navarro, Jorge [Wind Energy, Division of Renewable Energies, Department of Energy, CIEMAT, Av. Complutense, 22, Ed. 42, 28044 Madrid (Spain); Crespo, Antonio [Laboratorio de Mecanica de Fluidos, Departmento de Ingenieria Energetica y Fluidomecanica, ETSII, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, C/Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2-28006 Madrid (Spain); Lizcano, Gil [Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling - IMM, Technical University of Denmark, Richard Petersens Plads, Building 321, Office 019, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Feitosa, Everaldo [Brazilian Wind Energy Centre - CBEE, Centro de Tecnologia e Geociencias, UFPE-50.740-530 Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-08-15

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art on models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly the same in order to compare two models (this fact makes it almost impossible to carry out a quantitative comparison between a huge number of models and methods). In place of a quantitative description, a qualitative approach is preferred for this review, remarking the contribution (and innovative aspect) of each model. On the basis of the review, some topics for future research are pointed out. (author)

  8. Wind_Speeds_Master

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This data set included wind speeds for each subregion in the study (Georges Bank, Gulf of Maine, Southern New England, Middle Atlantic Bight) . The data came from...

  9. Short-term Wind Forecasting to Support Virtual Power Player Operation

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos, Sérgio; Soares, João; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a wind speed forecasting model that contributes to the development and implementation of adequate methodologies for Energy Resource Man-agement in a distribution power network, with intensive use of wind based power generation. The proposed fore-casting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, name-ly with a time horizon of 10 minutes. A case study using a real database from the meteoro-logical station installed ...

  10. Wind Power Forecasting Based on Echo State Networks and Long Short-Term Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erick López

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Wind power generation has presented an important development around the world. However, its integration into electrical systems presents numerous challenges due to the variable nature of the wind. Therefore, to maintain an economical and reliable electricity supply, it is necessary to accurately predict wind generation. The Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT has been proposed to solve this task using the power curve associated with a wind farm. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs model complex non-linear relationships without requiring explicit mathematical expressions that relate the variables involved. In particular, two types of RNN, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM and Echo State Network (ESN, have shown good results in time series forecasting. In this work, we present an LSTM+ESN architecture that combines the characteristics of both networks. An architecture similar to an ESN is proposed, but using LSTM blocks as units in the hidden layer. The training process of this network has two key stages: (i the hidden layer is trained with a descending gradient method online using one epoch; (ii the output layer is adjusted with a regularized regression. In particular, the case is proposed where Step (i is used as a target for the input signal, in order to extract characteristics automatically as the autoencoder approach; and in the second stage (ii, a quantile regression is used in order to obtain a robust estimate of the expected target. The experimental results show that LSTM+ESN using the autoencoder and quantile regression outperforms the WPPT model in all global metrics used.

  11. Short term hydroelectric power system scheduling with wind turbine generators using the multi-pass iteration particle swarm optimization approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, T.-Y.

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses multi-pass iteration particle swarm optimization (MIPSO) to solve short term hydroelectric generation scheduling of a power system with wind turbine generators. MIPSO is a new algorithm for solving nonlinear optimal scheduling problems. A new index called iteration best (IB) is incorporated into particle swarm optimization (PSO) to improve solution quality. The concept of multi-pass dynamic programming is applied to modify PSO further and improve computation efficiency. The feasible operational regions of the hydro units and pumped storage plants over the whole scheduling time range must be determined before applying MIPSO to the problem. Wind turbine power generation then shaves the power system load curves. Next, MIPSO calculates hydroelectric generation scheduling. It begins with a coarse time stage and searching space and refines the time interval between two time stages and the search spacing pass by pass (iteration). With the cooperation of agents called particles, the near optimal solution of the scheduling problem can be effectively reached. The effects of wind speed uncertainty were also considered in this paper. The feasibility of the new algorithm is demonstrated by a numerical example, and MIPSO solution quality and computation efficiency are compared to those of other algorithms

  12. Short-term effects of the construction of wind turbines on harbour porpoises at Horns Reef

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tougaard, J. [Hedeselskabet, Miljoe og Energi A/S, Viborg(Denmark); Carstensen, Jakob [National Environmental Res. Inst., Dept. of Marine Ecology, Roskidle (Denmark); Damsgaard Henriksen, O.; Teilmann, J. [National Environmental Res. Inst., Dept. of Arctic Biology, Roskilde (Denmark)

    2003-04-15

    In 2002 the Worlds largest offshore wind farm, consisting of 80 2MW wind turbines, was constructed on Horns Reef in the Danish North Sea. Ship based visual surveys and long-term deployment of acoustic dataloggers (PODs) were used to assess short term effects of construction on behaviour and abundance of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena). Most focus was put on mounting of steel monopile foundations for the turbines, as they were rammed into the seabed. This type of operation is known to generate very loud underwater sound levels. Combined evidence from animal densities obtained from visual surveys, behavioural observations during surveys and acoustic activity data in and outside the construction area demonstrated effects on the behaviour and abundance of animals on both short-term (hours) and long term (entire construction period) scales. Acoustic activity by the porpoises decreased dramatically on the entire Horns Reef at the onset of ramming operations and returned to higher levels a few hours after each ramming operation was completed. A reduction in abundance close to ramming operations was anticipated, as deterring devices (pingers and seal scarers) were deployed prior to each ramming operation to deter marine mammals from the area and thus protect them from exposure to the loud sound levels generated by the ramming procedure. The changes in abundance and behaviour over large distances are unlikely to be explained by the deterring sounds, which have comparably lower intensities than the ramming sounds and these effects must be attributed to the ramming. A general effect on the behaviour of animals was seen during the construction period and at distances of up to 10-15 kilometers from the construction site. Compared to observations before and after construction there was a decrease in non-directional swimming, a behaviour assumed to correlate with feeding activity. Animal density estimates indicates that there were fewer animals present on the entire Horns

  13. Short-term effects of the construction of wind turbines on harbour porpoises at Horns Reef

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tougaard, J.; Carstensen, Jakob; Damsgaard Henriksen, O.; Teilmann, J.

    2003-04-01

    In 2002 the Worlds largest offshore wind farm, consisting of 80 2MW wind turbines, was constructed on Horns Reef in the Danish North Sea. Ship based visual surveys and long-term deployment of acoustic dataloggers (PODs) were used to assess short term effects of construction on behaviour and abundance of harbour porpoises (Phocoena phocoena). Most focus was put on mounting of steel monopile foundations for the turbines, as they were rammed into the seabed. This type of operation is known to generate very loud underwater sound levels. Combined evidence from animal densities obtained from visual surveys, behavioural observations during surveys and acoustic activity data in and outside the construction area demonstrated effects on the behaviour and abundance of animals on both short-term (hours) and long term (entire construction period) scales. Acoustic activity by the porpoises decreased dramatically on the entire Horns Reef at the onset of ramming operations and returned to higher levels a few hours after each ramming operation was completed. A reduction in abundance close to ramming operations was anticipated, as deterring devices (pingers and seal scarers) were deployed prior to each ramming operation to deter marine mammals from the area and thus protect them from exposure to the loud sound levels generated by the ramming procedure. The changes in abundance and behaviour over large distances are unlikely to be explained by the deterring sounds, which have comparably lower intensities than the ramming sounds and these effects must be attributed to the ramming. A general effect on the behaviour of animals was seen during the construction period and at distances of up to 10-15 kilometers from the construction site. Compared to observations before and after construction there was a decrease in non-directional swimming, a behaviour assumed to correlate with feeding activity. Animal density estimates indicates that there were fewer animals present on the entire Horns

  14. Short-term Periodization Models: Effects on Strength and Speed-strength Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, Hagen; Wirth, Klaus; Keiner, Michael; Mickel, Christoph; Sander, Andre; Szilvas, Elena

    2015-10-01

    Dividing training objectives into consecutive phases to gain morphological adaptations (hypertrophy phase) and neural adaptations (strength and power phases) is called strength-power periodization (SPP). These phases differ in program variables (volume, intensity, and exercise choice or type) and use stepwise intensity progression and concomitant decreasing volume, converging to peak intensity (peaking phase). Undulating periodization strategies rotate these program variables in a bi-weekly, weekly, or daily fashion. The following review addresses the effects of different short-term periodization models on strength and speed-strength both with subjects of different performance levels and with competitive athletes from different sports who use a particular periodization model during off-season, pre-season, and in-season conditioning. In most periodization studies, it is obvious that the strength endurance sessions are characterized by repetition zones (12-15 repetitions) that induce muscle hypertrophy in persons with a low performance level. Strictly speaking, when examining subjects with a low training level, many periodization studies include mainly hypertrophy sessions interspersed with heavy strength/power sessions. Studies have demonstrated equal or statistically significant higher gains in maximal strength for daily undulating periodization compared with SPP in subjects with a low to moderate performance level. The relatively short intervention period and the lack of concomitant sports conditioning call into question the practical value of these findings for competitive athletes. Possibly owing to differences in mesocycle length, conditioning programs, and program variables, competitive athletes either maintained or improved strength and/or speed-strength performance by integrating daily undulating periodization and SPP during off-season, pre-season and in-season conditioning. In high-performance sports, high-repetition strength training (>15) should be

  15. Relative performance of different numerical weather prediction models for short term predition of wind wnergy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Moennich, K; Waldl, H P [Carl con Ossietzky Univ., Faculty of Physics, Dept. of Energy and Semiconductor, Oldenburg (Germany)

    1999-03-01

    In several approaches presented in other papers in this conference, short term forecasting of wind power for a time horizon covering the next two days is done on the basis of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. This paper explores the relative merits of HIRLAM, which is the model used by the Danish Meteorological Institute, the Deutschlandmodell from the German Weather Service and the Nested Grid Model used in the US. The performance comparison will be mainly done for a site in Germany which is in the forecasting area of both the Deutschlandmodell and HIRLAM. In addition, a comparison of measured data with the forecasts made for one site in Iowa will be included, which allows conclusions on the merits of all three models. Differences in the relative performances could be due to a better tailoring of one model to its country, or to a tighter grid, or could be a function of the distance between the grid points and the measuring site. Also the amount, in which the performance can be enhanced by the use of model output statistics (topic of other papers in this conference) could give insights into the performance of the models. (au)

  16. Dynamics of cyanobacterial bloom formation during short-term hydrodynamic fluctuation in a large shallow, eutrophic, and wind-exposed Lake Taihu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tingfeng; Qin, Boqiang; Zhu, Guangwei; Luo, Liancong; Ding, Yanqing; Bian, Geya

    2013-12-01

    Short-term hydrodynamic fluctuations caused by extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide because of global climate change, and such fluctuations can strongly influence cyanobacterial blooms. In this study, the cyanobacterial bloom disappearance and reappearance in Lake Taihu, China, in response to short-term hydrodynamic fluctuations, was investigated by field sampling, long-term ecological records, high-frequency sensors and MODIS satellite images. The horizontal drift caused by the dominant easterly wind during the phytoplankton growth season was mainly responsible for cyanobacterial biomass accumulation in the western and northern regions of the lake and subsequent bloom formation over relatively long time scales. The cyanobacterial bloom changed slowly under calm or gentle wind conditions. In contrast, the short-term bloom events within a day were mainly caused by entrainment and disentrainment of cyanobacterial colonies by wind-induced hydrodynamics. Observation of a westerly event in Lake Taihu revealed that when the 30 min mean wind speed (flow speed) exceeded the threshold value of 6 m/s (5.7 cm/s), cyanobacteria in colonies were entrained by the wind-induced hydrodynamics. Subsequently, the vertical migration of cyanobacterial colonies was controlled by hydrodynamics, resulting in thorough mixing of algal biomass throughout the water depth and the eventual disappearance of surface blooms. Moreover, the intense mixing can also increase the chance for forming larger and more cyanobacterial colonies, namely, aggregation. Subsequently, when the hydrodynamics became weak, the cyanobacterial colonies continuously float upward without effective buoyancy regulation, and cause cyanobacterial bloom explosive expansion after the westerly. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate that the strong wind happening frequently during April and October can be an important cause of the formation and expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu.

  17. The state-of-the-art in short-term prediction of wind power. A literature overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Brownsword, R.; Kariniotakis, G.

    2003-08-01

    Based on an appropriate questionnaire (WP1.1) and some other works already in progress, this report details the state-of-the-art in short term prediction of wind power, mostly summarising nearly all existing literature on the topic. (au)

  18. An analysis of the performance benefits of short-term energy storage in wind-diesel hybrid power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirazi, M.; Drouilhet, S.

    1996-01-01

    A variety of prototype high penetration wind-diesel hybrid power systems have been implemented with different amounts of energy storage. They range from systems with no energy storage to those with many hours worth of energy storage. There has been little consensus among wind-diesel system developers as to the appropriate role and amount of energy storage in such systems. Some researchers advocate providing only enough storage capacity to supply power during the time it takes the diesel genset to start. Others install large battery banks to allow the diesel(s) to operate at full load and/or to time-shift the availability of wind-generated electricity to match the demand. Prior studies indicate that for high penetration wind-diesel systems, short-term energy storage provides the largest operational and economic benefit. This study uses data collected in Deering, Alaska, a small diesel-powered village, and the hybrid systems modeling software Hybrid2 to determine the optimum amount of short-term storage for a particular high penetration wind-diesel system. These findings were then generalized by determining how wind penetration, turbulence intensity, and load variability affect the value of short term energy storage as measured in terms of fuel savings, total diesel run time, and the number of diesel starts

  19. New insights of seismic disturbances due to wind turbines - long and short term measurements in SW Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieger, Toni; Ritter, Joachim

    2017-04-01

    Within the scope of the project "TremAc", we present new insights of ground motion disturbances due to wind turbines (WTs) in the vicinity of the town of Landau, SW Germany. The main goal of this project, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, is the detection of influences from WTs on human health and buildings in an interdisciplinary way. The interaction between WTs, humans, infrastructure (incl.seismic stations) becomes more and more an important role with the increase of installed WTs. We present averaged one hour long PSD-spectra in a frequency range from 0.5 Hz to 7 Hz depending on the wind speed before and after the installation of characteristic WTs, especially for seismic borehole stations, during one month measurements. The results show a clear increase of the ground motion and a related disturbance of the seismic recordings. The station threshold for signal detection below 2 Hz is reduced after the installation of a new wind farm in the area around Landau. This effect occurs even up to distances to the WTs of more than 5 kilometers. The increasing noise level depends also clearly on wind speed, which indicate also the WT origin related with the signals. Using short-term measurements during few hours, we are able to determine the maximum of the PSD values for different discrete frequencies as function of distance to the next WT and to fit a power-law decay curve proportional to 1/rb to the data. In this way we can differentiate between near- and far-field effects of the seismic wave propagation of WTs. A clear frequency dependent decay can be observed, for which high frequencies are more attenuated than lower frequencies, probably due to scattering processes. The new results will help for a better understanding of WTs as a seismic noise source and their interaction with nearby seismic stations and other infrastructure. Seismic data were provided by "Erdbebendienst Südwest", "Federal Institute for Geosciences and

  20. Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radziukynas, V.; Klementavičius, A.

    2016-04-01

    The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023).

  1. Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radziukynas V.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011 and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023.

  2. Intelligent and robust prediction of short term wind power using genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zameer, Aneela; Arshad, Junaid; Khan, Asifullah; Raja, Muhammad Asif Zahoor

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks is employed for short term wind power prediction. • Proposed predictor shows resilience against abrupt changes in weather. • Genetic programming evolves nonlinear mapping between meteorological measures and wind-power. • Proposed approach gives mathematical expressions of wind power to its independent variables. • Proposed model shows relatively accurate and steady wind-power prediction performance. - Abstract: The inherent instability of wind power production leads to critical problems for smooth power generation from wind turbines, which then requires an accurate forecast of wind power. In this study, an effective short term wind power prediction methodology is presented, which uses an intelligent ensemble regressor that comprises Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming. In contrast to existing series based combination of wind power predictors, whereby the error or variation in the leading predictor is propagated down the stream to the next predictors, the proposed intelligent ensemble predictor avoids this shortcoming by introducing Genetical Programming based semi-stochastic combination of neural networks. It is observed that the decision of the individual base regressors may vary due to the frequent and inherent fluctuations in the atmospheric conditions and thus meteorological properties. The novelty of the reported work lies in creating ensemble to generate an intelligent, collective and robust decision space and thereby avoiding large errors due to the sensitivity of the individual wind predictors. The proposed ensemble based regressor, Genetic Programming based ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks, has been implemented and tested on data taken from five different wind farms located in Europe. Obtained numerical results of the proposed model in terms of various error measures are compared with the recent artificial intelligence based strategies to demonstrate the

  3. Ultra-Short-Term Wind-Power Forecasting Based on the Weighted Random Forest Optimized by the Niche Immune Lion Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongxiao Niu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The continuous increase in energy consumption has made the potential of wind-power generation tremendous. However, the obvious intermittency and randomness of wind speed results in the fluctuation of the output power in a wind farm, seriously affecting the power quality. Therefore, the accurate prediction of wind power in advance can improve the ability of wind-power integration and enhance the reliability of the power system. In this paper, a model of wavelet decomposition (WD and weighted random forest (WRF optimized by the niche immune lion algorithm (NILA-WRF is presented for ultra-short-term wind power prediction. Firstly, the original serials of wind speed and power are decomposed into several sub-serials by WD because the original serials have no obvious day characteristics. Then, the model parameters are set and the model trained with the sub-serials of wind speed and wind power decomposed. Finally, the WD-NILA-WRF model is used to predict the wind power of the relative sub-serials and the result is reconstructed to obtain the final prediction result. The WD-NILA-WRF model combines the advantage of each single model, which uses WD for signal de-noising, and uses the niche immune lion algorithm (NILA to improve the model’s optimization efficiency. In this paper, two empirical analyses are carried out to prove the accuracy of the model, and the experimental results verify the proposed model’s validity and superiority compared with the back propagation neural network (BP neural network, support vector machine (SVM, RF and NILA-RF, indicating that the proposed method is superior in cases influenced by noise and unstable factors, and possesses an excellent generalization ability and robustness.

  4. Short-Term Output Variations in Wind Farms--Implications for Ancillary Services in the United States: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadogan, J. [U.S. Department of Energy (US); Milligan, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (US); Wan, Y. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (US); Kirby, B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)

    2001-09-21

    With the advent of competition in the electric power marketplace, this paper reviews changes that affect wind and other renewable energy technologies, and discusses the role of federal and state policies in the recent wind installations in the United States. In particular, it reviews the implications of ancillary service requirements on a wind farm and presents initial operating results of monitoring one Midwest wind farm. Under federal energy policy, each generator must purchase, or otherwise provide for, ancillary services, such as dispatch, regulation, operation reserve, voltage regulation, and scheduling required to move power to load. As a renewable technology that depends on the forces of nature, short-term output variations are inherently greater for a wind farm than for a gas-fired combined cycle or a supercritical coal-fired unit.

  5. Wind speed perception and risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duzgun Agdas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human-wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. METHOD: We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. RESULTS: Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk. The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual-perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. CONCLUSION: These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.

  6. Wind speed perception and risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agdas, Duzgun; Webster, Gregory D; Masters, Forrest J

    2012-01-01

    How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human-wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual-perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.

  7. Wind Speed Perception and Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agdas, Duzgun; Webster, Gregory D.; Masters, Forrest J.

    2012-01-01

    Background How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human–wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. Method We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Results Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual–perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. Conclusion These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters. PMID:23226230

  8. Wind Power Forecasting Based on Echo State Networks and Long Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    López, Erick; Allende, Héctor; Gil, Esteban

    2018-01-01

    involved. In particular, two types of RNN, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Echo State Network (ESN), have shown good results in time series forecasting. In this work, we present an LSTM+ESN architecture that combines the characteristics of both networks. An architecture similar to an ESN is proposed...

  9. A Short-Term Outage Model of Wind Turbines with Doubly Fed Induction Generators Based on Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Sun

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a short-term wind turbine (WT outage model based on the data collected from a wind farm supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system. Neural networks (NNs are used to establish prediction models of the WT condition parameters that are dependent on environmental conditions such as ambient temperature and wind speed. The prediction error distributions are discussed and used to calculate probabilities of the operation of protection relays (POPRs that were caused by the threshold exceedance of the environmentally sensitive parameters. The POPRs for other condition parameters are based on the setting time of the operation of protection relays. The union probability method is used to integrate the probabilities of operation of each protection relay to predict the WT short term outage probability. The proposed method has been used for real 1.5 MW WTs with doubly fed induction generators (DFIGs. The results show that the proposed method is more effective in WT outage probability prediction than traditional methods.

  10. Estimation of effective wind speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Østergaard, K. Z.; Brath, P.; Stoustrup, J.

    2007-07-01

    The wind speed has a huge impact on the dynamic response of wind turbine. Because of this, many control algorithms use a measure of the wind speed to increase performance, e.g. by gain scheduling and feed forward. Unfortunately, no accurate measurement of the effective wind speed is online available from direct measurements, which means that it must be estimated in order to make such control methods applicable in practice. In this paper a new method is presented for the estimation of the effective wind speed. First, the rotor speed and aerodynamic torque are estimated by a combined state and input observer. These two variables combined with the measured pitch angle is then used to calculate the effective wind speed by an inversion of a static aerodynamic model.

  11. Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

    2016-09-01

    We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

  12. A preliminary evaluation of short-term thunderstorm forecasting using surface winds at Kennedy Space Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew I.; Holle, Ronald L.; Lopez, Raul E.; Nicholson, James R.

    1990-01-01

    In 1987 NASA expanded its surface wind network onto the mainland west of Kennedy Space Center, increasing the network area from nearly 800 sq km to over 1600 sq km. Here, the results of this expansion are reported using three years of wind and lightning information collected during June, July, August, and September of 1987, 1988, and 1989. The divergence-lightning relationships and the importance of wind direction are addressed, and the verification is summarized.

  13. Short-term spatio-temporal wind power forecast in robust look-ahead power system dispatch

    KAUST Repository

    Xie, Le

    2014-01-01

    We propose a novel statistical wind power forecast framework, which leverages the spatio-temporal correlation in wind speed and direction data among geographically dispersed wind farms. Critical assessment of the performance of spatio-temporal wind power forecast is performed using realistic wind farm data from West Texas. It is shown that spatio-temporal wind forecast models are numerically efficient approaches to improving forecast quality. By reducing uncertainties in near-term wind power forecasts, the overall cost benefits on system dispatch can be quantified. We integrate the improved forecast with an advanced robust look-ahead dispatch framework. This integrated forecast and economic dispatch framework is tested in a modified IEEE RTS 24-bus system. Numerical simulation suggests that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6% using a robust look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with persistent wind forecast models. © 2013 IEEE.

  14. Relative association of processing speed, short-term memory and sustained attention with task on gait speed: a study of community-dwelling people 50 years and older.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Killane, Isabelle; Donoghue, Orna A; Savva, George M; Cronin, Hilary; Kenny, Rose Anne; Reilly, Richard B

    2014-11-01

    For single gait tasks, associations have been reported between gait speed and cognitive domains. However, few studies have evaluated if this association is altered in dual gait tasks given gait speed changes with complexity and nature of task. We evaluated relative contributions of specific elements of cognitive function (including sustained attention and processing speed) to dual task gait speed in a nationally representative population of community-dwelling adults over 50 years. Gait speed was obtained using the GaitRite walkway during three gait tasks: single, cognitive (alternate letters), and motor (carrying a filled glass). Linear regression models, adjusted for covariates, were constructed to predict the relative contributions of seven neuropsychological tests to gait speed differences and to investigate gait task effects. The mean age and gait speed of the population (n = 4,431, 55% women) was 62.4 years (SD = 8.2) and 135.85 cm/s (SD = 20.20, single task), respectively. Poorer processing speed, short-term memory, and sustained attention were major cognitive contributors to slower gait speed for all gait tasks. Both dual gait tasks were robust to covariate adjustment and had a significant additional executive function element not found for the single gait task. For community-dwelling older adults processing speed, short-term memory and sustained attention were independently associated with gait speed for all gait tasks. Dual gait tasks were found to highlight specific executive function elements. This result forms a baseline value for dual task gait speed. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  15. Short-Term Optimal Operation of a Wind-PV-Hydro Complementary Installation: Yalong River, Sichuan Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinshuo Zhang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available How to effectively use clean renewable energy to improve the capacity of the power grid to absorb new energy and optimize the power grid structure has become one of China’s current issues. The Yalong River Wind-PV-Hydro complementary clean energy base was chosen as the research object from which to analyze the output complementarity principle and characteristics of wind farms, photovoltaic power plants, and hydropower stations. Then, an optimization scheduling model was established with the objective of minimizing the amount of abandoned wind and photovoltaic power and maximizing the stored energy in cascade hydropower stations. A Progress Optimality Algorithm (POA was used for the short-term optimal operation of Wind-PV-Hydro combinations. The results show that use of cascaded hydropower storage capacity can compensate for large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power, provide a relatively sustained and stable power supply for the grid. Wind-PV-Hydro complementary operation not only promotes wind power and photovoltaic power consumption but also improves the efficiency of using the original transmission channel of hydropower. This is of great significance to many developing countries in formatting a new green approach, realizing low-carbon power dispatch and trade and promoting regional economic development.

  16. Stochastic Dynamic AC Optimal Power Flow Based on a Multivariate Short-Term Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlei Bai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.

  17. Very short-term spatio-temporal wind power prediction using a censored Gaussian field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baxevani, Anastassia; Lenzi, Amanda

    2018-01-01

    Wind power is a renewable energy resource, that has relatively cheap installation costs and it is highly possible that will become the main energy resource in the near future. Wind power needs to be integrated efficiently into electricity grids, and to optimize the power dispatch, techniques...

  18. Dependability of wind energy generators with short-term energy storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, B

    1976-11-26

    Power fluctuations and power duration curves for wind energy generators, including energy storage facilities of a certain capacity, are compared to those of typical nuclear reactors. A storage system capable of delivering the yearly average power output for about 10 hours already makes the dependability of the wind energy system comparable to that of a typical nuclear plant.

  19. Implementation of a Wind Farm Turbine Control System with Short-Term Grid Faults Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marra, Francesco; Rasmussen, Tonny Wederberg; Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo

    2010-01-01

    restrictions for the wind turbines behavior especially under grid faults. Wind turbines are requested to stay connected even during faults. These new requirements are challenging the control of the wind turbines and new control strategies are required to meet the target. This paper dealt...... with the implementation of a control strategy in order to stay connected under grid faults. The method aimed to ensure that a wind farm turbine remains connected and no electric power is delivered to the grid during the fault period. The overall system was modelled and simulated by using the software Matlab/Simulink.......The increased penetration of wind power in the grid has led to important technical barriers that limit the development, where the stability of the system plays a key issue. Grid operators in different countries are issuing new grid requirements, the so-called grid codes that impose more...

  20. NTF – wind speed comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vesth, Allan; Gómez Arranz, Paula

    The report describes measurements carried out on a given turbine. A comparison between wind speed on the met mast and Nacelle Wind speed are made and the results are presented on graphs and in a table. The data used for the comparison are the data that are same as used for the power curve report...

  1. Short-Term Wind Electric Power Forecasting Using a Novel Multi-Stage Intelligent Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoran Zhao

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As the most efficient renewable energy source for generating electricity in a modern electricity network, wind power has the potential to realize sustainable energy supply. However, owing to its random and intermittent instincts, a high permeability of wind power into a power network demands accurate and effective wind energy prediction models. This study proposes a multi-stage intelligent algorithm for wind electric power prediction, which combines the Beveridge–Nelson (B-N decomposition approach, the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM, and a newly proposed intelligent optimization approach called the Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA. For data preprocessing, the B-N decomposition approach was employed to disintegrate the hourly wind electric power data into a deterministic trend, a cyclic term, and a random component. Then, the LSSVM optimized by the GOA (denoted GOA-LSSVM was applied to forecast the future 168 h of the deterministic trend, the cyclic term, and the stochastic component, respectively. Finally, the future hourly wind electric power values can be obtained by multiplying the forecasted values of these three trends. Through comparing the forecasting performance of this proposed method with the LSSVM, the LSSVM optimized by the Fruit-fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA-LSSVM, and the LSSVM optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-LSSVM, it is verified that the established multi-stage approach is superior to other models and can increase the precision of wind electric power prediction effectively.

  2. Short-term ecological effects of an offshore wind farm in the Dutch coastal zone. A compilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindeboom, H.J.; Brasseur, S.; Leopold, M.; Scheidat, M. [IMARES, PO Box 167, 1790 AD Den Burg (Netherlands); Kouwenhoven, H.J. [NoordzeeWind, 2e Havenstraat 5b, 1976 CE IJmuiden (Netherlands); Bergman, M.J.N.; Daan, R. [Royal NIOZ, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg (Netherlands); Bouma, S.; Fijn, R.C.; Dirksen, S.; Krijgsveld, K.L. [Bureau Waardenburg, PO Box 365, 4100 AJ Culemborg (Netherlands); De Haan, D.; Van Hal, R.; Hille Ris Lambers, R.; Ter Hofstede, R. [IMARES, PO Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden (Netherlands)

    2011-07-15

    The number of offshore wind farms is increasing rapidly, leading to questions about the environmental impact of such farms. In the Netherlands, an extensive monitoring programme is being executed at the first offshore wind farm (Offshore Windfarm Egmond aan Zee, OWEZ). This letter compiles the short-term (two years) results on a large number of faunal groups obtained so far. Impacts were expected from the new hard substratum, the moving rotor blades, possible underwater noise and the exclusion of fisheries. The results indicate no short-term effects on the benthos in the sandy area between the generators, while the new hard substratum of the monopiles and the scouring protection led to the establishment of new species and new fauna communities. Bivalve recruitment was not impacted by the OWEZ wind farm. Species composition of recruits in OWEZ and the surrounding reference areas is correlated with mud content of the sediment and water depth irrespective the presence of OWEZ. Recruit abundances in OWEZ were correlated with mud content, most likely to be attributed not to the presence of the farm but to the absence of fisheries. The fish community was highly dynamic both in time and space. So far, only minor effects upon fish assemblages especially near the monopiles have been observed. Some fish species, such as cod, seem to find shelter inside the farm. More porpoise clicks were recorded inside the farm than in the reference areas outside the farm. Several bird species seem to avoid the park while others are indifferent or are even attracted. The effects of the wind farm on a highly variable ecosystem are described. Overall, the OWEZ wind farm acts as a new type of habitat with a higher biodiversity of benthic organisms, a possibly increased use of the area by the benthos, fish, marine mammals and some bird species and a decreased use by several other bird species.

  3. Short-term ecological effects of an offshore wind farm in the Dutch coastal zone; a compilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindeboom, H J; Brasseur, S; Leopold, M; Scheidat, M [IMARES, PO Box 167, 1790 AD Den Burg (Netherlands); Kouwenhoven, H J [NoordzeeWind, 2e Havenstraat 5b, 1976 CE IJmuiden (Netherlands); Bergman, M J N; Daan, R [Royal NIOZ, PO Box 59, 1790 AB Den Burg (Netherlands); Bouma, S; Fijn, R C; Dirksen, S; Krijgsveld, K L [Bureau Waardenburg, PO Box 365, 4100 AJ Culemborg (Netherlands); De Haan, D; Van Hal, R; Hille Ris Lambers, R; Ter Hofstede, R, E-mail: han.lindeboom@wur.nl [IMARES, PO Box 68, 1970 AB IJmuiden (Netherlands)

    2011-07-15

    The number of offshore wind farms is increasing rapidly, leading to questions about the environmental impact of such farms. In the Netherlands, an extensive monitoring programme is being executed at the first offshore wind farm (Offshore Windfarm Egmond aan Zee, OWEZ). This letter compiles the short-term (two years) results on a large number of faunal groups obtained so far. Impacts were expected from the new hard substratum, the moving rotor blades, possible underwater noise and the exclusion of fisheries. The results indicate no short-term effects on the benthos in the sandy area between the generators, while the new hard substratum of the monopiles and the scouring protection led to the establishment of new species and new fauna communities. Bivalve recruitment was not impacted by the OWEZ wind farm. Species composition of recruits in OWEZ and the surrounding reference areas is correlated with mud content of the sediment and water depth irrespective the presence of OWEZ. Recruit abundances in OWEZ were correlated with mud content, most likely to be attributed not to the presence of the farm but to the absence of fisheries. The fish community was highly dynamic both in time and space. So far, only minor effects upon fish assemblages especially near the monopiles have been observed. Some fish species, such as cod, seem to find shelter inside the farm. More porpoise clicks were recorded inside the farm than in the reference areas outside the farm. Several bird species seem to avoid the park while others are indifferent or are even attracted. The effects of the wind farm on a highly variable ecosystem are described. Overall, the OWEZ wind farm acts as a new type of habitat with a higher biodiversity of benthic organisms, a possibly increased use of the area by the benthos, fish, marine mammals and some bird species and a decreased use by several other bird species.

  4. Short-term ecological effects of an offshore wind farm in the Dutch coastal zone. A compilation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lindeboom, H.J.; Brasseur, S.; Leopold, M.; Scheidat, M.; Kouwenhoven, H.J.; Bergman, M.J.N.; Daan, R.; Bouma, S.; Fijn, R.C.; Dirksen, S.; Krijgsveld, K.L.; De Haan, D.; Van Hal, R.; Hille Ris Lambers, R.; Ter Hofstede, R.

    2011-01-01

    The number of offshore wind farms is increasing rapidly, leading to questions about the environmental impact of such farms. In the Netherlands, an extensive monitoring programme is being executed at the first offshore wind farm (Offshore Windfarm Egmond aan Zee, OWEZ). This letter compiles the short-term (two years) results on a large number of faunal groups obtained so far. Impacts were expected from the new hard substratum, the moving rotor blades, possible underwater noise and the exclusion of fisheries. The results indicate no short-term effects on the benthos in the sandy area between the generators, while the new hard substratum of the monopiles and the scouring protection led to the establishment of new species and new fauna communities. Bivalve recruitment was not impacted by the OWEZ wind farm. Species composition of recruits in OWEZ and the surrounding reference areas is correlated with mud content of the sediment and water depth irrespective the presence of OWEZ. Recruit abundances in OWEZ were correlated with mud content, most likely to be attributed not to the presence of the farm but to the absence of fisheries. The fish community was highly dynamic both in time and space. So far, only minor effects upon fish assemblages especially near the monopiles have been observed. Some fish species, such as cod, seem to find shelter inside the farm. More porpoise clicks were recorded inside the farm than in the reference areas outside the farm. Several bird species seem to avoid the park while others are indifferent or are even attracted. The effects of the wind farm on a highly variable ecosystem are described. Overall, the OWEZ wind farm acts as a new type of habitat with a higher biodiversity of benthic organisms, a possibly increased use of the area by the benthos, fish, marine mammals and some bird species and a decreased use by several other bird species.

  5. Analysis of the operating behaviour of wind/Diesel systems with short term storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beyer, H.G.; Gabler, H.; Stoecklein, A.

    1993-01-01

    We are examining wind/Diesel systems with batteries and wind turbines of different sizes by simulation calculations. Apart from the fuel consumption and the number of starts of the Diesel engines, we determine the energy flow via the battery. We introduce dimensions of the battery for two special types of batteries and discuss the annual battery charge/discharge cycles to be expected. (orig.) [de

  6. Examples of mesoscale structures and short-term wind variations detected by VHF Doppler radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbes, G. S.

    1986-01-01

    The first of three wind profilers planned for operation in central and western Pennsylvania began full-time, high-quality operation during July 1985. It is located about 20 km south-southeast of University Park and operates at 50 MHz. Another 50-MHz radar and a 400-MHz radar are to be installed over the next few months, to complete a mesoscale triangle with sides of 120 to 160 km. During the period since early July, a number of weather systems have passed over the wind profiler. Those accompanied by thunderstorms caused data losses either because the Department computer system lost power or because power went out at the profiler site. A backup power supply and an automatic re-start program will be added to the profiler system to minimize such future losses. Data have normally been averaged over a one-hour period, although there have been some investigations of shorter-period averaging. In each case, preliminary examinations reveal that the profiler winds are indicative of meteorological phenomena. The only occasions of bad or missing data are obtained when airplane noise is occasionally experienced and when the returned power is nearly at the noise level, at the upper few gates, where a consensus wind cannot be determined. Jets streams, clouds, and diurnal variations of winds are discussed.

  7. Short-term strategies for Dutch wind power producers to reduce imbalance costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaves-Ávila, José Pablo; Hakvoort, Rudi A.; Ramos, Andrés

    2013-01-01

    The paper assesses bidding strategies for a wind power producer in the Netherlands. To this end, a three-stage stochastic optimization framework is used, maximizing wind power producer's profit using the day-ahead and cross-border intraday market, taking into account available interconnection capacity. Results show that the wind power producer can increase its profits by trading on the intraday market and – under certain imbalance prices – by intentionally creating imbalances. It has been considered uncertainties about prices, power forecast and interconnection capacity at the day-ahead and intraday timeframes. - Highlights: ► A cross-border bidding strategy model for wind power producers has been developed. ► The model was applied to a real case study of a Dutch offshore wind power producer. ► Under certain imbalance prices, it is not profitable to deliver all possible power. ► Intraday markets give the possibility to reduce imbalance costs. ► Integration of intraday markets will increase liquidity.

  8. Uncertainties and Wakes for Short-term Power Production of a Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Göçmen, Tuhfe; Giebel, Gregor

    2018-01-01

    Similar to the conventional power plants, the wind farms are expected to contribute to the grid stability and communicate with the system operators regarding the potential power production on much shorter time scales than AEP or even 10-min. Additionally, increasing interest to aerodynamic control...... of wind farms, both in the research community and in the industry, necessitates the wake models to be more accurate and reliable at shorter intervals. In this study, we discuss the uncertainties attached to an engineering wake model derived for 1-sec turbine data, and investigate the methods for reducing...... the uncertainty of such an application via further training the model for the wind farm and the time period in question using the historical data....

  9. New Approaches for Very Short-term Steady-State Analysis of An Electrical Distribution System with Wind Farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bracale

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Distribution networks are undergoing radical changes due to the high level of penetration of dispersed generation. Dispersed generation systems require particular attention due to their incorporation of uncertain energy sources, such as wind farms, and due to the impacts that such sources have on the planning and operation of distribution networks. In particular, the foreseeable, extensive use of wind turbine generator units in the future requires that distribution system engineers properly account for their impacts on the system. Many new technical considerations must be addressed, including protection coordination, steady-state analysis, and power quality issues. This paper deals with the very short-term, steady-state analysis of a distribution system with wind farms, for which the time horizon of interest ranges from one hour to a few hours ahead. Several wind-forecasting methods are presented in order to obtain reliable input data for the steady-state analysis. Both deterministic and probabilistic methods were considered and used in performing deterministic and probabilistic load-flow analyses. Numerical applications on a 17-bus, medium-voltage, electrical distribution system with various wind farms connected at different busbars are presented and discussed.

  10. Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2014-02-01

    Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

  11. Energy Coordinative Optimization of Wind-Storage-Load Microgrids Based on Short-Term Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changbin Hu

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available According to the topological structure of wind-storage-load complementation microgrids, this paper proposes a method for energy coordinative optimization which focuses on improvement of the economic benefits of microgrids in the prediction framework. First of all, the external characteristic mathematical model of distributed generation (DG units including wind turbines and storage batteries are established according to the requirements of the actual constraints. Meanwhile, using the minimum consumption costs from the external grid as the objective function, a grey prediction model with residual modification is introduced to output the predictive wind turbine power and load at specific periods. Second, based on the basic framework of receding horizon optimization, an intelligent genetic algorithm (GA is applied to figure out the optimum solution in the predictive horizon for the complex non-linear coordination control model of microgrids. The optimum results of the GA are compared with the receding solution of mixed integer linear programming (MILP. The obtained results show that the method is a viable approach for energy coordinative optimization of microgrid systems for energy flow and reasonable schedule. The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method is verified by examples.

  12. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  13. Short term prediction of the horizontal wind vector within a wake vortex warning system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frech, M.; Holzaepfel, F.; Gerz, T. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Wessling (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere; Konopka, J. [Deutsche Flugsicherung (DFS) GmbH, Langen (Germany)

    2000-07-14

    A wake vortex warning system (WVWS) has been developed for Frankfurt airport. This airport has two parallel runways which are separated by 518 m, a distance too short to operate them independently because wake vortices may be advected to the adjacent runway. The objective of the WVWS is to enable operation with reduced separation between two aircraft approaching the parallel runways at appropriate wind conditions. The WVWS applies a statistical persistence model to predict the crosswind within a 20 minute period. One of the main problems identified in the old WVWS are discontinuities between successive forecasts. These forecast breakdowns were not acceptable to airtraffic controllers. At least part of the problem was related to the fact that the forecast was solely based on the prediction of crosswind. A new method is developed on the basis of 523 days of sonic anemometer measurements at Frankfurt airport. It is demonstrated that the prediction of the horizontal wind vector avoids these difficulties and significantly improves the system's performance. (orig.)

  14. Why chunking should be considered as an explanation for developmental change before short-term memory capacity and processing speed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gary eJones

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The chunking hypothesis suggests that during the repeated exposure of stimulus material, information is organized into increasingly larger chunks. Many researchers have not considered the full power of the chunking hypothesis as both a learning mechanism and as an explanation of human behavior. Indeed, in developmental psychology there is relatively little mention of chunking and yet it can be the underlying cause of some of the mechanisms of development that have been proposed. This paper illustrates the chunking hypothesis in the domain of nonword repetition, a task that is a strong predictor of a child’s language learning. A computer simulation of nonword repetition that instantiates the chunking mechanism shows that: (1 chunking causes task behavior to improve over time, consistent with children’s performance; and (2 chunking causes perceived changes in areas such as short-term memory capacity and processing speed that are often cited as mechanisms of child development. Researchers should be cautious when considering explanations of developmental data, since chunking may be able to explain differences in performance without the need for additional mechanisms of development.

  15. Short-term nighttime wind turbine noise and cardiovascular events: A nationwide case-crossover study from Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulsen, Aslak Harbo; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Peña, Alfredo; Hahmann, Andrea N; Nordsborg, Rikke Baastrup; Ketzel, Matthias; Brandt, Jørgen; Sørensen, Mette

    2018-05-01

    The number of people exposed to wind turbine noise (WTN) is increasing. WTN is reported as more annoying than traffic noise at similar levels. Long-term exposure to traffic noise has consistently been associated with cardiovascular disease, whereas effects of short-term exposure are much less investigated due to little day-to-day variation of e.g. road traffic noise. WTN varies considerably due to changing weather conditions allowing investigation of short-term effects of WTN on cardiovascular events. We identified all hospitalisations and deaths from stroke (16,913 cases) and myocardial infarction (MI) (17,559 cases) among Danes exposed to WTN between 1982 and 2013. We applied a time-stratified, case-crossover design. Using detailed data on wind turbine type and hourly wind data at each wind turbine, we simulated mean nighttime outdoor (10-10,000 Hz) and nighttime low frequency (LF) indoor WTN (10-160 Hz) over the 4 days preceding diagnosis and reference days. For indoor LF WTN between 10 and 15 dB(A) and above 15 dB(A), odds ratios (ORs) for MI were 1.27 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.97-1.67; cases = 198) and 1.62 (95% CI: 0.76-3.45; cases = 21), respectively, when compared to indoor LF WTN below 5 dB(A). For stroke, corresponding ORs were 1.17 (95% CI: 0.95-1.69; cases = 166) and 2.30 (95% CI: 0.96-5.50; cases = 15). The elevated ORs above 15 dB(A) persisted across sensitivity analyses. When looking at specific lag times, noise exposure one day before MI events and three days before stroke events were associated with the highest ORs. For outdoor WTN at night, we observed both increased and decreased risk estimates. This study did not provide conclusive evidence of an association between WTN and MI or stroke. It does however suggest that indoor LF WTN at night may trigger cardiovascular events, whereas these events seemed largely unaffected by nighttime outdoor WTN. These findings need reproduction, as they were based on few cases

  16. Incorporating geostrophic wind information for improved space–time short-term wind speed forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin; Bowman, Kenneth P.; Genton, Marc G.

    2014-01-01

    pressure, temperature, and other meteorological variables, no improvement in forecasting accuracy was found by incorporating air pressure and temperature directly into an advanced space-time statistical forecasting model, the trigonometric direction diurnal

  17. Improved Wind Speed Prediction Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG, Y.

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Wind power industry plays an important role in promoting the development of low-carbon economic and energy transformation in the world. However, the randomness and volatility of wind speed series restrict the healthy development of the wind power industry. Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to realize the stability of wind power integration and to guarantee the safe operation of the power system. In this paper, combined with the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD, the Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBF and the Least Square Support Vector Machine (SVM, an improved wind speed prediction model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD-RBF-LS-SVM is proposed. The prediction result indicates that compared with the traditional prediction model (RBF, LS-SVM, the EMD-RBF-LS-SVM model can weaken the random fluctuation to a certain extent and improve the short-term accuracy of wind speed prediction significantly. In a word, this research will significantly reduce the impact of wind power instability on the power grid, ensure the power grid supply and demand balance, reduce the operating costs in the grid-connected systems, and enhance the market competitiveness of the wind power.

  18. Speed control at low wind speeds for a variable speed fixed pitch wind turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosmin, N.; Watson, S.J.; Tompson, M. [Loughborough Univ., Loughborough, Leicestershire (United Kingdom)

    2010-03-09

    The maximum power regulation below rated wind speed is regulated by changing the rotor/generator speed at large frequency range in a fixed pitch, variable speed, stall-regulated wind turbine. In order to capture the power at a maximum value the power coefficient is kept at maximum peak point by maintaining the tip speed ratio at its optimum value. The wind industry is moving from stall regulated fixed speed wind turbines to newer improved innovative versions with better reliability. While a stall regulated fixed pitch wind turbine is among the most cost-effective wind turbine on the market, its problems include noise, severe vibrations, high thrust loads and low power efficiency. Therefore, in order to improve such drawbacks, the rotation of the generator speed is made flexible where the rotation can be controlled in variable speed. This paper discussed the development of a simulation model which represented the behaviour of a stall regulated variable speed wind turbine at low wind speed control region by using the closed loop scalar control with adjustable speed drive. The paper provided a description of each sub-model in the wind turbine system and described the scalar control of the induction machine. It was concluded that by using a constant voltage/frequency ratio of the generator's stator side control, the generator speed could be regulated and the generator torque could be controlled to ensure the power coefficient could be maintained close to its maximum value. 38 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs.

  19. Hanford Site peak gust wind speeds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramsdell, J.V.

    1998-01-01

    Peak gust wind data collected at the Hanford Site since 1945 are analyzed to estimate maximum wind speeds for use in structural design. The results are compared with design wind speeds proposed for the Hanford Site. These comparisons indicate that design wind speeds contained in a January 1998 advisory changing DOE-STD-1020-94 are excessive for the Hanford Site and that the design wind speeds in effect prior to the changes are still appropriate for the Hanford Site

  20. A Novel Wind Speed Forecasting Model for Wind Farms of Northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian-Zhou; Wang, Yun

    2017-01-01

    Wind resources are becoming increasingly significant due to their clean and renewable characteristics, and the integration of wind power into existing electricity systems is imminent. To maintain a stable power supply system that takes into account the stochastic nature of wind speed, accurate wind speed forecasting is pivotal. However, no single model can be applied to all cases. Recent studies show that wind speed forecasting errors are approximately 25% to 40% in Chinese wind farms. Presently, hybrid wind speed forecasting models are widely used and have been verified to perform better than conventional single forecasting models, not only in short-term wind speed forecasting but also in long-term forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model is developed, the Similar Coefficient Sum (SCS) and Hermite Interpolation are exploited to process the original wind speed data, and the SVM model whose parameters are tuned by an artificial intelligence model is built to make forecast. The results of case studies show that the MAPE value of the hybrid model varies from 22.96% to 28.87 %, and the MAE value varies from 0.47 m/s to 1.30 m/s. Generally, Sign test, Wilcoxon's Signed-Rank test, and Morgan-Granger-Newbold test tell us that the proposed model is different from the compared models.

  1. Enhanced short-term wind power forecasting and value to grid operations. The wind forecasting improvement project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orwig, Kirsten D. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). Transmission Grid Integration; Benjamin, Stan; Wilczak, James; Marquis, Melinda [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.; Stern, Andrew [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD (United States); Clark, Charlton; Cline, Joel [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Wind and Water Power Program; Finley, Catherine [WindLogics, Grand Rapids, MN (United States); Freedman, Jeffrey [AWS Truepower, Albany, NY (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The current state-of-the-art wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-h timeframe has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risks to the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: (1) a one-year field measurement campaign within two regions; (2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and (3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provide an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis. (orig.)

  2. A data-driven multi-model methodology with deep feature selection for short-term wind forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Cong; Cui, Mingjian; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Zhang, Jie

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • An ensemble model is developed to produce both deterministic and probabilistic wind forecasts. • A deep feature selection framework is developed to optimally determine the inputs to the forecasting methodology. • The developed ensemble methodology has improved the forecasting accuracy by up to 30%. - Abstract: With the growing wind penetration into the power system worldwide, improving wind power forecasting accuracy is becoming increasingly important to ensure continued economic and reliable power system operations. In this paper, a data-driven multi-model wind forecasting methodology is developed with a two-layer ensemble machine learning technique. The first layer is composed of multiple machine learning models that generate individual forecasts. A deep feature selection framework is developed to determine the most suitable inputs to the first layer machine learning models. Then, a blending algorithm is applied in the second layer to create an ensemble of the forecasts produced by first layer models and generate both deterministic and probabilistic forecasts. This two-layer model seeks to utilize the statistically different characteristics of each machine learning algorithm. A number of machine learning algorithms are selected and compared in both layers. This developed multi-model wind forecasting methodology is compared to several benchmarks. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology is evaluated to provide 1-hour-ahead wind speed forecasting at seven locations of the Surface Radiation network. Numerical results show that comparing to the single-algorithm models, the developed multi-model framework with deep feature selection procedure has improved the forecasting accuracy by up to 30%.

  3. Short-term hydro-thermal-wind complementary scheduling considering uncertainty of wind power using an enhanced multi-objective bee colony optimization algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Jianzhong; Lu, Peng; Li, Yuanzheng; Wang, Chao; Yuan, Liu; Mo, Li

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • HTWCS system is established while considering uncertainty of wind power. • An enhanced multi-objective bee colony optimization algorithm is proposed. • Some heuristic repairing strategies are designed to handle various constraints. • HTWCS problem with economic/environment objectives is solved by EMOBCO. - Abstract: This paper presents a short-term economic/environmental hydro-thermal-wind complementary scheduling (HTWCS) system considering uncertainty of wind power, as well as various complicated non-linear constraints. HTWCS system is formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem to optimize conflictive objectives, i.e., economic and environmental criteria. Then an enhanced multi-objective bee colony optimization algorithm (EMOBCO) is proposed to solve this problem, which adopts Elite archive set, adaptive mutation/selection mechanism and local searching strategy to improve global searching ability of standard bee colony optimization (BCO). Especially, a novel constraints-repairing strategy with compressing decision space and a violation-adjustment method are used to handle various hydraulic and electric constraints. Finally, a daily scheduling simulation case of hydro-thermal-wind system is conducted to verify feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed EMOBCO in solving HTWCS problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed EMOBCO can provide lower economic cost and smaller pollutant emission than other method established recently while considering various complex constraints in HTWCS problem.

  4. Wake flow characteristics at high wind speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Larsen, Torben J.; Larsen, Gunner Chr.

    2016-01-01

    Wake flow characteristic at high wind speeds is the main subject of this paper. Although the wake losses decrease at high wind speeds it has been found in a recent study that for multiple wake inflow the increase in loading due to wake effects are substantial even at wind speeds well above rated ...

  5. Time Series Analysis and Forecasting for Wind Speeds Using Support Vector Regression Coupled with Artificial Intelligent Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Jiang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Wind speed/power has received increasing attention around the earth due to its renewable nature as well as environmental friendliness. With the global installed wind power capacity rapidly increasing, wind industry is growing into a large-scale business. Reliable short-term wind speed forecasts play a practical and crucial role in wind energy conversion systems, such as the dynamic control of wind turbines and power system scheduling. In this paper, an intelligent hybrid model for short-term wind speed prediction is examined; the model is based on cross correlation (CC analysis and a support vector regression (SVR model that is coupled with brainstorm optimization (BSO and cuckoo search (CS algorithms, which are successfully utilized for parameter determination. The proposed hybrid models were used to forecast short-term wind speeds collected from four wind turbines located on a wind farm in China. The forecasting results demonstrate that the intelligent hybrid models outperform single models for short-term wind speed forecasting, which mainly results from the superiority of BSO and CS for parameter optimization.

  6. Supplementary speed control for wind power smoothing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haan, de J.E.S.; Frunt, J.; Kechroud, A.; Kling, W.L.

    2010-01-01

    Wind fluctuations result in even larger wind power fluctuations because the power of wind is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. This report analyzes wind power fluctuations to investigate inertial power smoothing, in particular for the frequency range of 0.08 - 0.5 Hz. Due to the growing

  7. Short-term variability on mesozooplankton community in a shallow mixed estuary (Bahía Blanca, Argentina): Influence of tidal cycles and local winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menéndez, María C.; Piccolo, María C.; Hoffmeyer, Mónica S.

    2012-10-01

    The short-term dynamics of zooplankton in coastal ecosystems are strongly influenced by physical processes such as tides, riverine runoff and winds. In this study, we investigated the short-term changes of the representative taxa within mesozooplankton in relation to the semidiurnal tidal cycles. Also, we evaluated the influence of local winds on this short-term variability. Sampling was carried out bimonthly from December 2004 to April 2006 in a fixed point located in the inner zone of the Bahía Blanca Estuary, Argentina. Mesozooplankton samples were taken by pumps during 14-h tidal cycles at 3-h intervals, from surface and bottom. Vertical profiles of temperature and salinity as well as water samples to determine suspended particulate matter were acquired at each sampling date. All data concerning winds were obtained from a meteorological station and water level was recorded with a tide gauge. Holoplankton dominated numerically on meroplankton and adventitious fraction. Concerning holoplanktonic abundance, the highest values were attained by the calanoid copepods Acartia tonsa and Eurytemora americana. Meroplankton occurred mainly as barnacle larvae while benthic harpacticoids and Corophium sp. dominated the adventitious component. Semidiurnal tide was the main influence on the A. tonsa variability. However, noticeable differences in the abundance pattern as function of wind intensity were detected. Meroplankton abundance did not show a clear variation along the tidal cycle. Distributional pattern of harpacticoids seemed to be mainly modulated by velocity asymmetries in the tidal currents, in the same way as suspended particulate matter. However, the Corophium sp. distribution indicated probable behavioural responses associated with tides. The obtained results show how variable the mesozooplankton community structure can be over short-term time scales in mesotidal temperate estuaries. This variability should be taken into account for any zooplankton monitoring

  8. Hourly Wind Speed Interval Prediction in Arid Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaouch, M.; Ouarda, T.

    2013-12-01

    The long and extended warm and dry summers, the low rate of rain and humidity are the main factors that explain the increase of electricity consumption in hot arid regions. In such regions, the ventilating and air-conditioning installations, that are typically the most energy-intensive among energy consumption activities, are essential for securing healthy, safe and suitable indoor thermal conditions for building occupants and stored materials. The use of renewable energy resources such as solar and wind represents one of the most relevant solutions to overcome the increase of the electricity demand challenge. In the recent years, wind energy is gaining more importance among the researchers worldwide. Wind energy is intermittent in nature and hence the power system scheduling and dynamic control of wind turbine requires an estimate of wind energy. Accurate forecast of wind speed is a challenging task for the wind energy research field. In fact, due to the large variability of wind speed caused by the unpredictable and dynamic nature of the earth's atmosphere, there are many fluctuations in wind power production. This inherent variability of wind speed is the main cause of the uncertainty observed in wind power generation. Furthermore, producing wind power forecasts might be obtained indirectly by modeling the wind speed series and then transforming the forecasts through a power curve. Wind speed forecasting techniques have received substantial attention recently and several models have been developed. Basically two main approaches have been proposed in the literature: (1) physical models such as Numerical Weather Forecast and (2) statistical models such as Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, Neural Networks. While the initial focus in the literature has been on point forecasts, the need to quantify forecast uncertainty and communicate the risk of extreme ramp events has led to an interest in producing probabilistic forecasts. In short term

  9. When real life wind speed exceeds design wind assumptions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winther-Jensen, M; Joergensen, E R [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    Most modern wind turbines are designed according to a standard or a set of standards to withstand the design loads with a defined survival probability. Mainly the loads are given by the wind conditions on the site defining the `design wind speeds`, normally including extreme wind speeds given as an average and a peak value. The extreme wind speeds are normally (e.g. in the upcoming IEC standard for wind turbine safety) defined as having a 50-year recurrence period. But what happens when the 100 or 10,000 year wind situation hits a wind turbine? Results on wind turbines of wind speeds higher than the extreme design wind speeds are presented based on experiences especially from the State of Gujarat in India. A description of the normal approach of designing wind turbines in accordance with the standards in briefly given in this paper with special focus on limitations and built-in safety levels. Based on that, other possibilities than just accepting damages on wind turbines exposed for higher than design wind speeds are mentioned and discussed. The presentation does not intend to give the final answer to this problem but is meant as an input to further investigations and discussions. (au)

  10. Hourly wind speed analysis in Sicily

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bivona, S.; Leone, C. [Palermo Univ., Dip di Fisica e Technologie Relative, Palermo (Italy); Burlon, R. [Palermo Univ., Dip. di Ingegnaria Nucleare, Palermo (Italy)

    2003-07-01

    The hourly average wind speed data recorded by CNMCA (Centro Nazionale di Meteorologia e Climatologia Aeronautica) have been used to study the statistical properties of the wind speed at nine locations on Sicily. By grouping the observations month by month, we show that the hourly average wind speed, with calms omitted, is represented by a Weibull function. The suitability of the distribution is judged by the discrepancies between the observed and calculated values of the monthly average wind speed and of the standard deviation. (Author)

  11. The state-of-the-art in short-term prediction of wind power. A literature overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Draxl, C. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Brownsword, R. (Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), Oxford (United Kingdom)); Kariniotakis, G. (ARMINES, Paris (France)); Denhard, M. (ECMWF, Reading (United Kingdom))

    2011-01-15

    This Deliverable of ANEMOS.plus (Advanced Tools for the Management of Electricity Grids with Large-Scale Wind Generation) and SafeWind projects presents the state of the art in wind power forecasting. More than 380 references of journal and conference papers have been reviewed. (LN)

  12. Benefits of spatiotemporal modeling for short-term wind power forecasting at both individual and aggregated levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzi, Amanda; Steinsland, Ingelin; Pinson, Pierre

    2018-01-01

    The share of wind energy in total installed power capacity has grown rapidly in recent years. Producing accurate and reliable forecasts of wind power production, together with a quantification of the uncertainty, is essential to optimally integrate wind energy into power systems. We build...... spatiotemporal models for wind power generation and obtain full probabilistic forecasts from 15 min to 5 h ahead. Detailed analyses of forecast performances on individual wind farms and aggregated wind power are provided. The predictions from our models are evaluated on a data set from wind farms in western...... Denmark using a sliding window approach, for which estimation is performed using only the last available measurements. The case study shows that it is important to have a spatiotemporal model instead of a temporal one to achieve calibrated aggregated forecasts. Furthermore, spatiotemporal models have...

  13. Modelling Wind for Wind Farm Layout Optimization Using Joint Distribution of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

    OpenAIRE

    Ju Feng; Wen Zhong Shen

    2015-01-01

    Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint distributions of wind speed and wind direction, which is based on the parameters of sector-wise Weibull distributions and interpolations between direction sectors. It is applied to the wind measurement data a...

  14. Critical wind speed at which trees break

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virot, E.; Ponomarenko, A.; Dehandschoewercker, É.; Quéré, D.; Clanet, C.

    2016-02-01

    Data from storms suggest that the critical wind speed at which trees break is constant (≃42 m /s ), regardless of tree characteristics. We question the physical origin of this observation both experimentally and theoretically. By combining Hooke's law, Griffith's criterion, and tree allometry, we show that the critical wind speed indeed hardly depends on the height, diameter, and elastic properties of trees.

  15. Critical wind speed at which trees break.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virot, E; Ponomarenko, A; Dehandschoewercker, É; Quéré, D; Clanet, C

    2016-02-01

    Data from storms suggest that the critical wind speed at which trees break is constant (≃42m/s), regardless of tree characteristics. We question the physical origin of this observation both experimentally and theoretically. By combining Hooke's law, Griffith's criterion, and tree allometry, we show that the critical wind speed indeed hardly depends on the height, diameter, and elastic properties of trees.

  16. Bayesian Predictive Models for Rayleigh Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shahirinia, Amir; Hajizadeh, Amin; Yu, David C

    2017-01-01

    predictive model of the wind speed aggregates the non-homogeneous distributions into a single continuous distribution. Therefore, the result is able to capture the variation among the probability distributions of the wind speeds at the turbines’ locations in a wind farm. More specifically, instead of using...... a wind speed distribution whose parameters are known or estimated, the parameters are considered as random whose variations are according to probability distributions. The Bayesian predictive model for a Rayleigh which only has a single model scale parameter has been proposed. Also closed-form posterior...... and predictive inferences under different reasonable choices of prior distribution in sensitivity analysis have been presented....

  17. Short-term exposure to predation affects body elemental composition, climbing speed and survival ability in Drosophila melanogaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrikis Krams

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Factors such as temperature, habitat, larval density, food availability and food quality substantially affect organismal development. In addition, risk of predation has a complex impact on the behavioural and morphological life history responses of prey. Responses to predation risk seem to be mediated by physiological stress, which is an adaptation for maintaining homeostasis and improving survivorship during life-threatening situations. We tested whether predator exposure during the larval phase of development has any influence on body elemental composition, energy reserves, body size, climbing speed and survival ability of adult Drosophila melanogaster. Fruit fly larvae were exposed to predation by jumping spiders (Phidippus apacheanus, and the percentage of carbon (C and nitrogen (N content, extracted lipids, escape response and survival were measured from predator-exposed and control adult flies. The results revealed predation as an important determinant of adult phenotype formation and survival ability. D. melanogaster reared together with spiders had a higher concentration of body N (but equal body C, a lower body mass and lipid reserves, a higher climbing speed and improved adult survival ability. The results suggest that the potential of predators to affect the development and the adult phenotype of D. melanogaster is high enough to use predators as a more natural stimulus in laboratory experiments when testing, for example, fruit fly memory and learning ability, or when comparing natural populations living under different predation pressures.

  18. Short-term ecological effects of an offshore wind farm in the Dutch coastal zone; a compilation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lindeboom, H.J.; Kouwenhoven, H.J.; Bergman, M.J.N.; Bouma, S.; Brasseur, S.; Daan, R.; Fijn, R.C.; de Haan, D.; Dirksen, S.; van Hal, R.; Hille Ris Lambers, R.; ter Hofstede, R.; Krijgsveld, K.L.; Leopold, M.; Scheidat, M.

    2011-01-01

    The number of offshore wind farms is increasing rapidly, leading to questions about the environmental impact of such farms. In the Netherlands, an extensive monitoring programme is being executed at the first offshore wind farm (Offshore Windfarm Egmond aan Zee, OWEZ). This letter compiles the

  19. Deterministic and probabilistic interval prediction for short-term wind power generation based on variational mode decomposition and machine learning methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yachao; Liu, Kaipei; Qin, Liang; An, Xueli

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Variational mode decomposition is adopted to process original wind power series. • A novel combined model based on machine learning methods is established. • An improved differential evolution algorithm is proposed for weight adjustment. • Probabilistic interval prediction is performed by quantile regression averaging. - Abstract: Due to the increasingly significant energy crisis nowadays, the exploitation and utilization of new clean energy gains more and more attention. As an important category of renewable energy, wind power generation has become the most rapidly growing renewable energy in China. However, the intermittency and volatility of wind power has restricted the large-scale integration of wind turbines into power systems. High-precision wind power forecasting is an effective measure to alleviate the negative influence of wind power generation on the power systems. In this paper, a novel combined model is proposed to improve the prediction performance for the short-term wind power forecasting. Variational mode decomposition is firstly adopted to handle the instability of the raw wind power series, and the subseries can be reconstructed by measuring sample entropy of the decomposed modes. Then the base models can be established for each subseries respectively. On this basis, the combined model is developed based on the optimal virtual prediction scheme, the weight matrix of which is dynamically adjusted by a self-adaptive multi-strategy differential evolution algorithm. Besides, a probabilistic interval prediction model based on quantile regression averaging and variational mode decomposition-based hybrid models is presented to quantify the potential risks of the wind power series. The simulation results indicate that: (1) the normalized mean absolute errors of the proposed combined model from one-step to three-step forecasting are 4.34%, 6.49% and 7.76%, respectively, which are much lower than those of the base models and the hybrid

  20. WIND SPEED Monitoring in Northern Eurasia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulygina, O.; Korshunova, N. N.; Razuvaev, V. N.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2016-12-01

    The wind regime of Russia varies a great deal due to the large size of the country's territory and variety of climate and terrain conditions. Changes in the regime of surface wind are of great practical importance. They can affect heat and water balance. Strong wind is one of the most hazardous meteorological event for various sectors of economy and for infrastructure. The main objective of this research is to monitoring wind speed change in Northern Eurasia At meteorological stations wind speed and wind direction are measured at the height of 10-12 meters over the land surface with the help of wind meters or wind wanes. Calculations were made on the basis of data for the period of 1980-2015. It allowed the massive scale disruption of homogeneity to be eliminated and sufficient period needed to obtain sustainable statistic characteristics to be retained. Data on average and maximum wind speed measured at 1457 stations of Russia were used. The analysis of changes in wind characteristics was made on the basis of point data and series of average characteristics obtained for 18 quasi-homogeneous climatic regions. Statistical characteristics (average and maximum values of wind speed, prevailing wind direction, values of the boundary of the 90%, 95% and 99%-confidence interval in the distribution of maximum wind speed) were obtained for all seasons and for the year as a whole. Values of boundaries of the 95% and 99%-confidence interval in the distribution of maximum wind speed were considered as indicators of extremeness of the wind regime. The trend of changes in average and maximum wind speed was assessed with a linear trend coefficient. A special attention was paid to wind changes in the Arctic where dramatic changes in surface air temperature and sea ice extent and density have been observed during the past decade. The analysis of the results allowed seasonal and regional features of changes in the wind regime on the territory of the northern part of Eurasia to be

  1. The impact of European balancing rules on wind power economics and on short-term bidding strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaves-Ávila, J.P.; Hakvoort, R.A.; Ramos, A.

    2014-01-01

    Wind power represents a significant percentage of the European generation mix and this will increase to fulfill the renewable energy targets. Different balancing rules are applied to wind power among the countries; for instance, to what extent wind power producers (WPPs) are responsible for the energy imbalances and how those imbalances are penalized. This paper discusses those different rules and evaluates their effects on WPP bidding strategies. To do so, a quantitative analysis is presented for an offshore wind farm, considering the differences in the balancing rules and prices of Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. The quantitative approach consists of a stochastic optimization model that maximizes the profits of a WPP by trading in different markets (day-ahead and intraday) and computes the final energy delivered. The model considers uncertainties of most important parameters such as wind energy forecasts and prices at different time frames. The results show that the imbalance pricing design and the allocation of balance responsibility significantly affect WPP’ revenues. Additionally, WPPs deviate differently from the expected energy depending on the balancing rules, which can impact the system. Furthermore, these balancing rules should be considered with other market regulations, such as the design of support schemes. - Highlights: • European countries apply different imbalance pricing rules. • The allocation of balance responsibility to wind power varies between the countries. • A stochastic optimization model is used to compare the effect of balancing rules. • Balancing rules have an important impact on wind generators bidding strategies. • Balancing rules have also an effect on the system imbalances

  2. The “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies” Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Sperati

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A benchmarking exercise was organized within the framework of the European Action Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies (“WIRE” with the purpose of evaluating the performance of state of the art models for short-term renewable energy forecasting. The exercise consisted in forecasting the power output of two wind farms and two photovoltaic power plants, in order to compare the merits of forecasts based on different modeling approaches and input data. It was thus possible to obtain a better knowledge of the state of the art in both wind and solar power forecasting, with an overview and comparison of the principal and the novel approaches that are used today in the field, and to assess the evolution of forecast performance with respect to previous benchmarking exercises. The outcome of this exercise consisted then in proposing new challenges in the renewable power forecasting field and identifying the main areas for improving accuracy in the future.

  3. WIND SPEED AND ENERGY POTENTIAL ANALYSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. TOKGÖZLÜ

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a case study on application of wavelet techniques to analyze wind speed and energy (renewable and environmental friendly energy. Solar and wind are main sources of energy that allows farmers to have the potential for transferring kinetic energy captured by the wind mill for pumping water, drying crops, heating systems of green houses, rural electrification's or cooking. Larger wind turbines (over 1 MW can pump enough water for small-scale irrigation. This study tried to initiate data gathering process for wavelet analyses, different scale effects and their role on wind speed and direction variations. The wind data gathering system is mounted at latitudes: 37° 50" N; longitude 30° 33" E and height: 1200 m above mean sea level at a hill near Süleyman Demirel University campus. 10 minutes average values of two levels wind speed and direction (10m and 30m above ground level have been recorded by a data logger between July 2001 and February 2002. Wind speed values changed between the range of 0 m/s and 54 m/s. Annual mean speed value is 4.5 m/s at 10 m ground level. Prevalent wind

  4. Short-Term and Medium-Term Reliability Evaluation for Power Systems With High Penetration of Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Singh, Chanan; Goel, Lalit

    2014-01-01

    reliability evaluation techniques for power systems are well developed. These techniques are more focused on steady-state (time-independent) reliability evaluation and have been successfully applied in power system planning and expansion. In the operational phase, however, they may be too rough......The expanding share of the fluctuating and less predictable wind power generation can introduce complexities in power system reliability evaluation and management. This entails a need for the system operator to assess the system status more accurately for securing real-time balancing. The existing...... an approximation of the time-varying behavior of power systems with high penetration of wind power. This paper proposes a time-varying reliability assessment technique. Time-varying reliability models for wind farms, conventional generating units, and rapid start-up generating units are developed and represented...

  5. LIDAR Wind Speed Measurements of Evolving Wind Fields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simley, E.; Pao, L. Y.

    2012-07-01

    Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR) systems are able to measure the speed of incoming wind before it interacts with a wind turbine rotor. These preview wind measurements can be used in feedforward control systems designed to reduce turbine loads. However, the degree to which such preview-based control techniques can reduce loads by reacting to turbulence depends on how accurately the incoming wind field can be measured. Past studies have assumed Taylor's frozen turbulence hypothesis, which implies that turbulence remains unchanged as it advects downwind at the mean wind speed. With Taylor's hypothesis applied, the only source of wind speed measurement error is distortion caused by the LIDAR. This study introduces wind evolution, characterized by the longitudinal coherence of the wind, to LIDAR measurement simulations to create a more realistic measurement model. A simple model of wind evolution is applied to a frozen wind field used in previous studies to investigate the effects of varying the intensity of wind evolution. LIDAR measurements are also evaluated with a large eddy simulation of a stable boundary layer provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Simulation results show the combined effects of LIDAR errors and wind evolution for realistic turbine-mounted LIDAR measurement scenarios.

  6. Modeling wind speed and wind power distributions in Rwanda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safari, Bonfils [Department of Physics, National University of Rwanda, P.O. Box 117, Huye District, South Province (Rwanda)

    2011-02-15

    Utilization of wind energy as an alternative energy source may offer many environmental and economical advantages compared to fossil fuels based energy sources polluting the lower layer atmosphere. Wind energy as other forms of alternative energy may offer the promise of meeting energy demand in the direct, grid connected modes as well as stand alone and remote applications. Wind speed is the most significant parameter of the wind energy. Hence, an accurate determination of probability distribution of wind speed values is very important in estimating wind speed energy potential over a region. In the present study, parameters of five probability density distribution functions such as Weibull, Rayleigh, lognormal, normal and gamma were calculated in the light of long term hourly observed data at four meteorological stations in Rwanda for the period of the year with fairly useful wind energy potential (monthly hourly mean wind speed anti v{>=}2 m s{sup -1}). In order to select good fitting probability density distribution functions, graphical comparisons to the empirical distributions were made. In addition, RMSE and MBE have been computed for each distribution and magnitudes of errors were compared. Residuals of theoretical distributions were visually analyzed graphically. Finally, a selection of three good fitting distributions to the empirical distribution of wind speed measured data was performed with the aid of a {chi}{sup 2} goodness-of-fit test for each station. (author)

  7. An Experimental Investigation of FNN Model for Wind Speed Forecasting Using EEMD and CS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhou Wang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available With depletion of traditional energy and increasing environmental problems, wind energy, as an alternative renewable energy, has drawn more and more attention internationally. Meanwhile, wind is plentiful, clean, and environmentally friendly; moreover, its speed is a very important piece of information needed in the operations and planning of the wind power system. Therefore, choosing an effective forecasting model with good performance plays a quite significant role in wind power system. A hybrid CS-EEMD-FNN model is firstly proposed in this paper for multistep ahead prediction of wind speed, in which EEMD is employed as a data-cleaning method that aims to remove the high frequency noise embedded in the wind speed series. CS optimization algorithm is used to select the best parameters in the FNN model. In order to evaluate the effectiveness and performance of the proposed hybrid model, three other short-term wind speed forecasting models, namely, FNN model, EEMD-FNN model, and CS-FNN model, are carried out to forecast wind speed using data measured at a typical site in Shandong wind farm, China, over three seasons in 2011. Experimental results demonstrate that the developed hybrid CS-EEMD-FNN model outperforms other models with more accuracy, which is suitable to wind speed forecasting in this area.

  8. Hour-Ahead Wind Speed and Power Forecasting Using Empirical Mode Decomposition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ying-Yi Hong

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Operation of wind power generation in a large farm is quite challenging in a smart grid owing to uncertain weather conditions. Consequently, operators must accurately forecast wind speed/power in the dispatch center to carry out unit commitment, real power scheduling and economic dispatch. This work presents a novel method based on the integration of empirical mode decomposition (EMD with artificial neural networks (ANN to forecast the short-term (1 h ahead wind speed/power. First, significant parameters for training the ANN are identified using the correlation coefficients. These significant parameters serve as inputs of the ANN. Owing to the volatile and intermittent wind speed/power, the historical time series of wind speed/power is decomposed into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs and a residual function through EMD. Each IMF becomes less volatile and therefore increases the accuracy of the neural network. The final forecasting results are achieved by aggregating all individual forecasting results from all IMFs and their corresponding residual functions. Real data related to the wind speed and wind power measured at a wind-turbine generator in Taiwan are used for simulation. The wind speed forecasting and wind power forecasting for the four seasons are studied. Comparative studies between the proposed method and traditional methods (i.e., artificial neural network without EMD, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA, and persistence method are also introduced.

  9. Low Speed Wind Tunnel Facility (LSWTF)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Description: This facility consists of a large-scale, low-speed open-loop induction wind tunnel which has been modified to house a linear turbine cascade. A 125-hp...

  10. Comparative analysis of methods for modelling the short-term probability distribution of extreme wind turbine loads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dimitrov, Nikolay Krasimirov

    2016-01-01

    We have tested the performance of statistical extrapolation methods in predicting the extreme response of a multi-megawatt wind turbine generator. We have applied the peaks-over-threshold, block maxima and average conditional exceedance rates (ACER) methods for peaks extraction, combined with four...... levels, based on the assumption that the response tail is asymptotically Gumbel distributed. Example analyses were carried out, aimed at comparing the different methods, analysing the statistical uncertainties and identifying the factors, which are critical to the accuracy and reliability...

  11. Wind speed forecasting using FEEMD echo state networks with RELM in Hebei, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Wei; Liu, Mohan

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • FEEMD–RELM is proposed for wind speed forecasting. • Short-term and mid-term wind speed are forecasted by the proposed model. • PACF is introduced to select the input of RELM. • Three cases in Hebei province are applied in this paper. - Abstract: Reducing the dependence on fossil-fuel-based resources is becoming significant due to the detrimental effects on environment and global energy-dependent. Thus, increased attention has been paid to wind power, a type of clean and renewable energy. However, owing to the stochastic nature of wind speed, it is essential to build a wind speed forecasting model with high-precision for wind power utilization. Therefore, this paper proposes a hybrid model which combines fast ensemble empirical model decomposition (FEEMD) with regularized extreme learning machine (RELM). The original wind speed series are first decomposed into a limited number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and one residual series. Then RELM is built to forecast the sub-series. Partial auto correlation function (PACF) is applied to analyze the intrinsic relationships between the historical speeds so as to select the inputs of RELM. To verify the developed models, short-term wind speed data in July 2010 and monthly data from January 2000 to May 2010 in Hong songwa wind farm, Chengde city are used for model construction and testing. Two additional forecasting cases in Hebei province are also applied to prove the model’s validity. The simulation test results show that the built model is effective, efficient and practicable.

  12. Effects of massive wind power integration on short-term water resource management in central Chile - a grid-wide study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, J.; Olivares, M. A.; Palma, R.

    2013-12-01

    In central Chile, water from reservoirs and streams is mainly used for irrigation and power generation. Hydropower reservoirs operation is particularly challenging because: i) decisions at each plant impact the entire power system, and ii) the existence of large storage capacity implies inter-temporal ties. An Independent System Operator (ISO) decides the grid-wide optimal allocation of water for power generation, under irrigation-related constraints. To account for the long-term opportunity cost of water, a future cost function is determined and used in the short term planning. As population growth and green policies demand increasing levels of renewable energy in power systems, deployment of wind farms and solar plants is rising quickly. However, their power output is highly fluctuating on short time scales, affecting the operation of power plants, particularly those fast responding units as hydropower reservoirs. This study addresses these indirect consequences of massive introduction of green energy sources on reservoir operations. Short-term reservoir operation, under different wind penetration scenarios, is simulated using a replica of Chile's ISO's scheduling optimization tools. Furthermore, an ongoing study is exploring the potential to augment the capacity the existing hydro-power plants to better cope with the balancing needs due to a higher wind power share in the system. As reservoir releases determine to a great extent flows at downstream locations, hourly time series of turbined flows for 24-hour periods were computed for selected combinations between new wind farms and increased capacity of existing hydropower plants. These time series are compiled into subdaily hydrologic alteration (SDHA) indexes (Zimmerman et al, 2010). The resulting sample of indexes is then analyzed using duration curves. Results show a clear increase in the SDHA for every reservoir of the system as more fluctuating renewables are integrated into the system. High

  13. A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alessandrini, S.; Sperati, S.; Pinson, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    together with a single forecast power value for each future time horizon. A comparison between two different ensemble forecasting models, ECMWF EPS (Ensemble Prediction System in use at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System developed...... ahead forecast horizon. A statistical calibration of the ensemble wind speed members based on the use of past wind speed measurements is explained. The two models are compared using common verification indices and diagrams. The higher horizontal resolution model (COSMO-LEPS) shows slightly better...

  14. Effect of Wind Direction on ENVISAT ASAR Wind Speed Retrieval

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Takeyama, Yuko; Ohsawa, Teruo; Kozai, Katsutoshi

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of effects of wind directions (NCEP, MANAL, QuickSCAT and WRF) on the sea surface wind speed retrieval from 75 ENVISAT ASAR images with four C-band Geophysical model functions, CMOD4, CMOD_IFR2, CMOD5 and CMOD5N at two target areas, Hiratsuka and Shirahama. As re...

  15. Feature selection in wind speed prediction systems based on a hybrid coral reefs optimization – Extreme learning machine approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salcedo-Sanz, S.; Pastor-Sánchez, A.; Prieto, L.; Blanco-Aguilera, A.; García-Herrera, R.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction is presented. • The system is formed by a coral reefs optimization algorithm and an extreme learning machine. • Feature selection is carried out with the CRO to improve the ELM performance. • The method is tested in real wind farm data in USA, for the period 2007–2008. - Abstract: This paper presents a novel approach for short-term wind speed prediction based on a Coral Reefs Optimization algorithm (CRO) and an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), using meteorological predictive variables from a physical model (the Weather Research and Forecast model, WRF). The approach is based on a Feature Selection Problem (FSP) carried out with the CRO, that must obtain a reduced number of predictive variables out of the total available from the WRF. This set of features will be the input of an ELM, that finally provides the wind speed prediction. The CRO is a novel bio-inspired approach, based on the simulation of reef formation and coral reproduction, able to obtain excellent results in optimization problems. On the other hand, the ELM is a new paradigm in neural networks’ training, that provides a robust and extremely fast training of the network. Together, these algorithms are able to successfully solve this problem of feature selection in short-term wind speed prediction. Experiments in a real wind farm in the USA show the excellent performance of the CRO–ELM approach in this FSP wind speed prediction problem

  16. Short-term changes in a microplankton community in the Chukchi Sea during autumn: consequences of a strong wind event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokoi, Naoya; Matsuno, Kohei; Ichinomiya, Mutsuo; Yamaguchi, Atsushi; Nishino, Shigeto; Onodera, Jonaotaro; Inoue, Jun; Kikuchi, Takashi

    2016-02-01

    Recent studies indicate an increase in atmospheric turbulence in the Chukchi Sea due to the recent drastic sea-ice reduction during summer months. The importance of the effects of this atmospheric turbulence on the marine ecosystem in this region, however, is not fully understood. To evaluate the effects of atmospheric turbulence on the marine ecosystem, high-frequency sampling (daily) from five layers of the microplankton community between 0 and 30 m at a fixed station in the Chukchi Sea from 10 through 25 September 2013 was conducted. During the study period, a strong wind event (SWE) was observed on 18 and 19 September. The abundance of microplankton was 2.6 to 17.6 cells mL-1, with a maximum abundance being reported at 20 m on 22 September, while diatoms were the most dominant taxa throughout the study period. The abundance of diatoms, dinoflagellates and ciliates ranged between 1.6 and 14.1, 0.5 and 2.4 and 0.1 and 2.8 cells mL-1, respectively. Diatoms belonging to 7 genera consisting of 35 species (Cylindrotheca closterium and Leptocylindrus danicus were dominant), dinoflagellates belonging to 7 genera consisting of 25 species (Prorocentrum balticum and Gymnodinium spp. were dominant) and ciliates belonging to 7 genera consisting of 8 species (Strobilidium spp. and Strombidium spp. were dominant) were identified. Within the microplankton species, there were 11 species with abundances that increased after the SWE, while there was no species with an abundance that decreased following the SWE. It is conjectured that atmospheric turbulences, such as that of an SWE, may supply sufficient nutrients to the surface layer that subsequently enhance the small bloom under the weak stratification of the Chukchi Sea Shelf during the autumn months. After the bloom, the dominant diatom community then shifts from centric-dominated to one where centric/pennate are more equal in abundance.

  17. Estimation of Rotor Effective Wind Speed: A Comparison

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soltani, Mohsen; Knudsen, Torben; Svenstrup, Mikael

    2013-01-01

    Modern wind turbine controllers use wind speed information to improve power production and reduce loads on the turbine components. The turbine top wind speed measurement is unfortunately imprecise and not a good representative of the rotor effective wind speed. Consequently, many different model...... aero-servo-elastic turbine simulations and real turbine field experiments in different wind scenarios....

  18. Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis Version 4.0 Brings Forecasting Speed, Accuracy, and Capability Improvements to NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterling, K.; Denbo, D. W.; Eble, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis (SIFT) software was developed by NOAA's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) for use in tsunami forecasting and has been used by both U.S. Tsunami Warning Centers (TWCs) since 2012, when SIFTv3.1 was operationally accepted. Since then, advancements in research and modeling have resulted in several new features being incorporated into SIFT forecasting. Following the priorities and needs of the TWCs, upgrades to SIFT forecasting were implemented into SIFTv4.0, scheduled to become operational in October 2016. Because every minute counts in the early warning process, two major time saving features were implemented in SIFT 4.0. To increase processing speeds and generate high-resolution flooding forecasts more quickly, the tsunami propagation and inundation codes were modified to run on Graphics Processing Units (GPUs). To reduce time demand on duty scientists during an event, an automated DART inversion (or fitting) process was implemented. To increase forecasting accuracy, the forecasted amplitudes and inundations were adjusted to include dynamic tidal oscillations, thereby reducing the over-estimates of flooding common in SIFTv3.1 due to the static tide stage conservatively set at Mean High Water. Further improvements to forecasts were gained through the assimilation of additional real-time observations. Cabled array measurements from Bottom Pressure Recorders (BPRs) in the Oceans Canada NEPTUNE network are now available to SIFT for use in the inversion process. To better meet the needs of harbor masters and emergency managers, SIFTv4.0 adds a tsunami currents graphical product to the suite of disseminated forecast results. When delivered, these new features in SIFTv4.0 will improve the operational tsunami forecasting speed, accuracy, and capabilities at NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers.

  19. Variability of Wind Speeds and Power over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tambke, J.; von Bremen, L.; de Decker, J.; Schmidt, M.; Steinfeld, G.; Wolff, J.-O.

    2010-09-01

    This study comprises two parts: First, we describe the vertical wind speed and turbulence profiles that result from our improved PBL scheme and compare it to observations and 1-dimensional approaches (Monin-Obukhov etc.). Second, we analyse the spatio-temporal correlations in our meso-scale simulations for the years 2004 to 2007 over entire Europe, with special focus on the Irish, North and Baltic Sea. 1.) Vertical Wind Speed Profiles The vertical wind profile above the sea has to be modelled with high accuracy for tip heights up to 160m in order to achieve precise wind resource assessments, to calculate loads and wakes of wind turbines as well as for reliable short-term wind power forecasts. We present an assessment of different models for wind profiles in unstable, neutral and stable thermal stratification. The meso-scale models comprise MM5, WRF and COSMO-EU (LME). Both COSMO-EU from the German Weather Service DWD and WRF use a turbulence closure of 2.5th order - and lead to similar results. Especially the limiting effect of low boundary layer heights on the wind shear in very stable stratification is well captured. In our new WRF-formulation for the mixing length in the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) parameterisation of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL-scheme), the master length scale itself depends on the Monin-Obukhov-Length as a parameter for the heat flux effects on the turbulent mixing. This new PBL-scheme shows a better performance for all weather conditions than the original MYJ-scheme. Apart from the low-boundary-layer-effect in very stable situations (which are seldom), standard Monin-Obukhov formulations in combination with the Charnock relation for the sea surface roughness show good agreement with the FINO1-data (German Bight). Interesting results were achieved with two more detailed micro-scale approaches: - the parameterization proposed by Pena, Gryning and Hasager [BLM 2008] that depends on the boundary layer height - our ICWP-model, were the flux

  20. Gradient decent based multi-objective cultural differential evolution for short-term hydrothermal optimal scheduling of economic emission with integrating wind power and photovoltaic power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Huifeng; Yue, Dong; Xie, Xiangpeng; Dou, Chunxia; Sun, Feng

    2017-01-01

    With the integration of wind power and photovoltaic power, optimal operation of hydrothermal power system becomes great challenge due to its non-convex, stochastic and complex-coupled constrained characteristics. This paper extends short-term hydrothermal system optimal model into short-term hydrothermal optimal scheduling of economic emission while considering integrated intermittent energy resources (SHOSEE-IIER). For properly solving SHOSEE-IIER problem, a gradient decent based multi-objective cultural differential evolution (GD-MOCDE) is proposed to improve the optimal efficiency of SHOSEE-IIER combined with three designed knowledge structures, which mainly enhances search ability of differential evolution in the shortest way. With considering those complex-coupled and stochastic constraints, a heuristic constraint-handling measurement is utilized to tackle with them both in coarse and fine tuning way, and probability constraint-handling procedures are taken to properly handle those stochastic constraints combined with their probability density functions. Ultimately, those approaches are implemented on five test systems, which testify the optimization efficiency of proposed GD-MOCDE and constraint-handling efficiency for system load balance, water balance and stochastic constraint-handling measurements, those obtained results reveal that the proposed GD-MOCDE can properly solve the SHOSEE-IIER problem combined with those constraint-handling approaches. - Highlights: • Gradient decent method is proposed to improve mutation operator. • Hydrothermal system is extended to hybrid energy system. • The uncertainty constraint is converted into deterministic constraint. • The results show the viability and efficiency of proposed algorithm.

  1. Grey-identification model based wind power generation short-term prediction%基于灰色-辨识模型的风电功率短期预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2013-01-01

      为了准确预测风电机组的输出功率,针对实际风场,给出一种基于灰色 GM(1,1)模型和辨识模型的风电功率预测建模方法,采用残差修正的方法对风速进行预测,得出准确的风速预测序列。同时为了提高风电功率预测的精度,引入 FIR-MA迭代辨识模型,从分段函数的角度对风电场实际风速-风电功率曲线进行拟合,取得合适的 FIR-MA 模型。利用该模型对额定容量为850 kW 的风电机组进行建模,采用平均绝对误差和均方根误差,以及单点误差作为评价指标,与风电场的实测数据进行比较分析。仿真结果表明,基于灰色-辨识模型的风电机组输出功率预测方法是有效和实用的,该模型能够很好地预测风电机组的实时输出功率,从而提高风电场输出功率预测的精确性。%To predict the output power of wind turbine accurately, based on the GM (1, 1) model and the identification method, a wind power generation short-term prediction method is presented for the real wind farm. The revision of residual error is applied to forecast the wind speed and get the accurate predicted wind speed series. Then, in order to increase the prediction precision of wind power, the FIR-MA iterative identification model is adopted to fit the real relationship between sequential wind speed and wind power and get the proper FIR-MA model. By modeling the wind turbine whose rated capacity is 850 kW, this paper compares the predicted wind generation power with the observed data using mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error and single point error as its evaluation indexes. The simulation shows the effectiveness and the practical applicability of the presented method, which can predict the real time generation power of wind turbineness and raise the accuracy of the wind power prediction. Finally, the simulation using the actual data from wind farm in China proves the efficiency of the

  2. Modeling wind adjustment factor and midflame wind speed for Rothermel's surface fire spread model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patricia L. Andrews

    2012-01-01

    Rothermel's surface fire spread model was developed to use a value for the wind speed that affects surface fire, called midflame wind speed. Models have been developed to adjust 20-ft wind speed to midflame wind speed for sheltered and unsheltered surface fuel. In this report, Wind Adjustment Factor (WAF) model equations are given, and the BehavePlus fire modeling...

  3. The use of Markov chains in forecasting wind speed: Matlab source code and applied case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionuţ Alexandru Petre

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict the wind speed has an important role for renewable energy industry which relies on wind speed forecasts in order to calculate the power a wind farm can produce in an area. There are several well-known methods to predict wind speed, but in this paper we focus on short-term wind forecasting using Markov chains. Often gaps can be found in the time series of the wind speed measurements and repeating the measurements is usually not a valid option. In this study it is shown that using Markov chains these gaps from the time series can be filled (they can be generated in an efficient way, but only when the missing data is for a short period of time. Also, the developed Matlab programms that are used in the case study, are included in the paper beeing presented and commented by the authors. In the case study data from a wind farm in Italy is used. The available data are as average wind speed at an interval of 10 minutes in the time period 11/23/2005 - 4/27/2006.

  4. Wind Speed Measurement by Paper Anemometer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Juhua; Cheng, Zhongqi; Guan, Wenchuan

    2011-01-01

    A simple wind speed measurement device, a paper anemometer, is fabricated based on the theory of standing waves. In providing the working profile of the paper anemometer, an experimental device is established, which consists of an anemometer sensor, a sound sensor, a microphone, paper strips, a paper cup, and sonic acquisition software. It shows…

  5. Fiber Laser for Wind Speed Measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Anders Sig

    This PhD thesis evaluates the practical construction and use of a Frequency Stepped Pulse Train modulated coherent Doppler wind lidar (FSPT lidar) for wind speed measurement. The concept of Doppler lidar is introduced as a means to measure line of sight wind speed by the Doppler shift of reflected...... Sweeper (LSFS) is introduced and analyzed as a light source for the FSPT lidar. The setup of the LSFS is discussed, and the necessary concepts for modeling and analyzing LSFS noise are developed. The model and measurements are then used to discuss the growth of optical noise in the LSFS and the impact...... on its use in the FSPT lidar. A complex ABCD model is developed and described as a method for calculating spatial and frequency dependency of a lidar’s signal strength. The model includes both spatial and temporal components of the lidar system, enabling a model capable of describing both CW, pulsed...

  6. A combined model based on CEEMDAN and modified flower pollination algorithm for wind speed forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Wenyu; Qu, Zongxi; Zhang, Kequan; Mao, Wenqian; Ma, Yining; Fan, Xu

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A CEEMDAN-CLSFPA combined model is proposed for short-term wind speed forecasting. • The CEEMDAN technique is used to decompose the original wind speed series. • A modified optimization algorithm-CLSFPA is proposed to optimize the weights of the combined model. • The no negative constraint theory is applied to the combined model. • Robustness of the proposed model is validated by data sampled from four different wind farms. - Abstract: Wind energy, which is stochastic and intermittent by nature, has a significant influence on power system operation, power grid security and market economics. Precise and reliable wind speed prediction is vital for wind farm planning and operational planning for power grids. To improve wind speed forecasting accuracy, a large number of forecasting approaches have been proposed; however, these models typically do not account for the importance of data preprocessing and are limited by the use of individual models. In this paper, a novel combined model – combining complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition adaptive noise (CEEMDAN), flower pollination algorithm with chaotic local search (CLSFPA), five neural networks and no negative constraint theory (NNCT) – is proposed for short-term wind speed forecasting. First, a recent CEEMDAN is employed to divide the original wind speed data into a finite set of IMF components, and then a combined model, based on NNCT, is proposed for forecasting each decomposition signal. To improve the forecasting capacity of the combined model, a modified flower pollination algorithm (FPA) with chaotic local search (CLS) is proposed and employed to determine the optimal weight coefficients of the combined model, and the final prediction values were obtained by reconstructing the refined series. To evaluate the forecasting ability of the proposed combined model, 15-min wind speed data from four wind farms in the eastern coastal areas of China are used. The experimental results of

  7. Torque- and Speed Control of a Pitch Regulated Wind Turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rasila, Mika

    2003-07-01

    Variable speed operated wind turbines has the potential to reduce fatigue loads, compared to fixed speed wind turbines. With pitch controllable rotor blades limitation of the power at high wind speeds is obtained. The thesis describes different controlling aspects concerning wind turbines and how these together can be used to optimize the system's performance. Torque control is used in order to achieve reduction on the mechanical loads on the drive-train for low wind speeds and limitation of power output for high wind speeds. In the high wind speed interval torque control is effective in order to limit the output power if a sufficiently fast pitch actuator is used. In the middle wind speed interval filter utilization can be used to give a reference signal to the controller in order to reduce speed and torque variations.

  8. Wind speed forecasting in the central California wind resource area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCarthy, E.F. [Wind Economics & Technology, Inc., Martinez, CA (United States)

    1997-12-31

    A wind speed forecasting program was implemented in the summer seasons of 1985 - 87 in the Central California Wind Resource Area (WRA). The forecasting program is designed to use either meteorological observations from the WRA and local upper air observations or upper air observations alone to predict the daily average windspeed at two locations. Forecasts are made each morning at 6 AM and are valid for a 24 hour period. Ease of use is a hallmark of the program as the daily forecast can be made using data entered into a programmable HP calculator. The forecasting program was the first step in a process to examine whether the electrical energy output of an entire wind power generation facility or defined subsections of the same facility could be predicted up to 24 hours in advance. Analysis of the results of the summer season program using standard forecast verification techniques show the program has skill over persistence and climatology.

  9. Discussion of “Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm generation forecasts” and “Combined nonparametric prediction intervals for wind power generation”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Tastu, Julija

    2014-01-01

    A new score for the evaluation of interval forecasts, the so-called coverage width-based criterion (CWC), was proposed and utilized.. This score has been used for the tuning (in-sample) and genuine evaluation (out-ofsample) of prediction intervals for various applications, e.g., electric load [1......], electricity prices [2], general purpose prediction [3], and wind power generation [4], [5]. Indeed, two papers by the same authors appearing in the IEEE Transactions On Sustainable Energy employ that score and use it to conclude on the comparative quality of alternative approaches to interval forecasting...

  10. Short-term memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulouse, G.

    This is a rather bold attempt to bridge the gap between neuron structure and psychological data. We try to answer the question: Is there a relation between the neuronal connectivity in the human cortex (around 5,000) and the short-term memory capacity (7±2)? Our starting point is the Hopfield model (Hopfield 1982), presented in this volume by D.J. Amit.

  11. An Analysis of Variable-Speed Wind Turbine Power-Control Methods with Fluctuating Wind Speed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung-Il Moon

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Variable-speed wind turbines (VSWTs typically use a maximum power-point tracking (MPPT method to optimize wind-energy acquisition. MPPT can be implemented by regulating the rotor speed or by adjusting the active power. The former, termed speed-control mode (SCM, employs a speed controller to regulate the rotor, while the latter, termed power-control mode (PCM, uses an active power controller to optimize the power. They are fundamentally equivalent; however, since they use a different controller at the outer control loop of the machine-side converter (MSC controller, the time dependence of the control system differs depending on whether SCM or PCM is used. We have compared and analyzed the power quality and the power coefficient when these two different control modes were used in fluctuating wind speeds through computer simulations. The contrast between the two methods was larger when the wind-speed fluctuations were greater. Furthermore, we found that SCM was preferable to PCM in terms of the power coefficient, but PCM was superior in terms of power quality and system stability.

  12. Recursive wind speed forecasting based on Hammerstein Auto-Regressive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ait Maatallah, Othman; Achuthan, Ajit; Janoyan, Kerop; Marzocca, Pier

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Developed a new recursive WSF model for 1–24 h horizon based on Hammerstein model. • Nonlinear HAR model successfully captured chaotic dynamics of wind speed time series. • Recursive WSF intrinsic error accumulation corrected by applying rotation. • Model verified for real wind speed data from two sites with different characteristics. • HAR model outperformed both ARIMA and ANN models in terms of accuracy of prediction. - Abstract: A new Wind Speed Forecasting (WSF) model, suitable for a short term 1–24 h forecast horizon, is developed by adapting Hammerstein model to an Autoregressive approach. The model is applied to real data collected for a period of three years (2004–2006) from two different sites. The performance of HAR model is evaluated by comparing its prediction with the classical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and a multi-layer perceptron Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Results show that the HAR model outperforms both the ARIMA model and ANN model in terms of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). When compared to the conventional models, the new HAR model can better capture various wind speed characteristics, including asymmetric (non-gaussian) wind speed distribution, non-stationary time series profile, and the chaotic dynamics. The new model is beneficial for various applications in the renewable energy area, particularly for power scheduling

  13. Comparison of SAR Wind Speed Retrieval Algorithms for Evaluating Offshore Wind Energy Resources

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kozai, K.; Ohsawa, T.; Takeyama, Y.

    2010-01-01

    Envisat/ASAR-derived offshore wind speeds and energy densities based on 4 different SAR wind speed retrieval algorithms (CMOD4, CMOD-IFR2, CMOD5, CMOD5.N) are compared with observed wind speeds and energy densities for evaluating offshore wind energy resources. CMOD4 ignores effects of atmospheri...

  14. Wind speed change regionalization in China (1961–2012

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pei-Jun Shi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This research quantitatively recognized the wind speed change using wind speed trend and trend of wind speed variability from 1961 to 2012 and regionalized the wind speed change on a county-level basis. The mean wind speed observation data and linear fitting method were used. The findings suggested that level-I regionalization includes six zones according to wind speed trend value in different regions, viz. Northeast China–North China substantial declining zone, East–Central China declining zone, Southeast China slightly declining zone, Southwest China very slightly declining zone, Northwest China declining zone, and Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau slightly declining zone. Level-II regionalization divides China into twelve regions based on trend of wind speed variability and the level-I regionalization results.

  15. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP): A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations. The Southern Study Area, Final Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Freedman, Jeffrey M. [AWS Truepower, LLC, Albany, NY (United States); Manobianco, John [MESO, Inc., Troy, NY (United States); Schroeder, John [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States). National Wind Inst.; Ancell, Brian [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States). Atmospheric Science Group; Brewster, Keith [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States). Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms; Basu, Sukanta [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences; Banunarayanan, Venkat [ICF International (United States); Hodge, Bri-Mathias [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Flores, Isabel [Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (United States)

    2014-04-30

    This Final Report presents a comprehensive description, findings, and conclusions for the Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP) -- Southern Study Area (SSA) work led by AWS Truepower (AWST). This multi-year effort, sponsored by the Department of Energy (DOE) and National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), focused on improving short-term (15-minute - 6 hour) wind power production forecasts through the deployment of an enhanced observation network of surface and remote sensing instrumentation and the use of a state-of-the-art forecast modeling system. Key findings from the SSA modeling and forecast effort include: 1. The AWST WFIP modeling system produced an overall 10 - 20% improvement in wind power production forecasts over the existing Baseline system, especially during the first three forecast hours; 2. Improvements in ramp forecast skill, particularly for larger up and down ramps; 3. The AWST WFIP data denial experiments showed mixed results in the forecasts incorporating the experimental network instrumentation; however, ramp forecasts showed significant benefit from the additional observations, indicating that the enhanced observations were key to the model systems’ ability to capture phenomena responsible for producing large short-term excursions in power production; 4. The OU CAPS ARPS simulations showed that the additional WFIP instrument data had a small impact on their 3-km forecasts that lasted for the first 5-6 hours, and increasing the vertical model resolution in the boundary layer had a greater impact, also in the first 5 hours; and 5. The TTU simulations were inconclusive as to which assimilation scheme (3DVAR versus EnKF) provided better forecasts, and the additional observations resulted in some improvement to the forecasts in the first 1 - 3 hours.

  16. On the Response of a Micro Wind Turbine to Wind-Speed Change

    OpenAIRE

    烏谷, 隆; 渡辺, 公彦; 大屋, 裕二

    2004-01-01

    To improve the efficiency of a wind turbine, it is more effective to use high-speed wind. A method collecting wind to get high-speed wind was experimentally studied. It was found that the brimmed diffuser was a good device to get high-speed wind. The brimmed diffuser accelerated approaching wind, and wind speed near its inlet became about 1.7 times. Using this brimmed diffuser, we have made a new micro wind turbine and been carrying out field experiment. In order realize the properties of the...

  17. On wind speed pattern and energy potential in Nigeria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adaramola, M.S.; Oyewola, O.M.

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to review wind speed distribution and wind energy availability in Nigeria and discuss the potential of using this resource for generation of wind power in the country. The power output from a wind turbine is strongly dependent on the wind speed and accurate information about the wind data in a targeted location is essential. The annual mean wind speeds in Nigeria range from about 2 to 9.5 m/s and the annual power density range between 3.40 and 520 kW/m 2 based on recent reported data. The trend shows that wind speeds are low in the south and gradually increases to relatively high speeds in the north. The areas that are suitable for exploitation of wind energy for electricity generation as well as for water pumping were identified. Also some of the challenges facing the development of wind energy and suggested solutions were presented. - Research Highlights: → Review of wind speed distribution and wind energy availability in Nigeria in presented. → The annual mean wind speeds in Nigeria range from about 2 to 9.5 m/s and the annual power density range between 3.40 and 520 kW/m 2 based on recent reported data. → The areas that are suitable for exploitation of wind energy for electricity generation as well as for water pumping were identified.

  18. Mixture distributions of wind speed in the UAE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, J.; Ouarda, T.; Lee, T. S.

    2013-12-01

    Wind speed probability distribution is commonly used to estimate potential wind energy. The 2-parameter Weibull distribution has been most widely used to characterize the distribution of wind speed. However, it is unable to properly model wind speed regimes when wind speed distribution presents bimodal and kurtotic shapes. Several studies have concluded that the Weibull distribution should not be used for frequency analysis of wind speed without investigation of wind speed distribution. Due to these mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed data, the application of mixture distributions should be further investigated in the frequency analysis of wind speed. A number of studies have investigated the potential wind energy in different parts of the Arabian Peninsula. Mixture distributional characteristics of wind speed were detected from some of these studies. Nevertheless, mixture distributions have not been employed for wind speed modeling in the Arabian Peninsula. In order to improve our understanding of wind energy potential in Arabian Peninsula, mixture distributions should be tested for the frequency analysis of wind speed. The aim of the current study is to assess the suitability of mixture distributions for the frequency analysis of wind speed in the UAE. Hourly mean wind speed data at 10-m height from 7 stations were used in the current study. The Weibull and Kappa distributions were employed as representatives of the conventional non-mixture distributions. 10 mixture distributions are used and constructed by mixing four probability distributions such as Normal, Gamma, Weibull and Extreme value type-one (EV-1) distributions. Three parameter estimation methods such as Expectation Maximization algorithm, Least Squares method and Meta-Heuristic Maximum Likelihood (MHML) method were employed to estimate the parameters of the mixture distributions. In order to compare the goodness-of-fit of tested distributions and parameter estimation methods for

  19. Wind speed prediction using statistical regression and neural network

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prediction of wind speed in the atmospheric boundary layer is important for wind energy assess- ment,satellite launching and aviation,etc.There are a few techniques available for wind speed prediction,which require a minimum number of input parameters.Four different statistical techniques,viz.,curve fitting,Auto Regressive ...

  20. The economics of a variable speed wind-diesel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moll, W.

    1992-01-01

    A remote community power supply system generating over 1,000 kWH/d will have at least one diesel generator running all the time. If one or more wind turbine generators are added to such a system, the diesel generator will produce less power when wind speeds are adequate, but its fuel efficiency will gradually decrease as load decreases. In the variable speed wind/diesel concept, the diesel rpm is reduced with decreasing load and a high fuel efficiency is maintained over virtually the full power range. The outputs of the diesel and wind turbine generators are fed into an inverter which synthesizes a desired voltage wave-shape with controlled magnitude and frequency. The variable speed wind/diesel concept may make vertical axis wind turbines suitable for remote community power supply because the inverter effectively isolates the power ripple of the wind turbine. A possible wind/diesel system configuration using the variable speed concept is illustrated. The economics of a 50-kW variable speed diesel and a 80-kW variable speed wind turbine generator was analyzed. Going from a constant speed diesel generator to a variable speed generator operating at 55% capacity factor, a 6% fuel saving was achieved. Adding one 80-kW wind turbine increased fuel savings to 32% at 5 m/s wind speed, but the unit energy cost rose 8.5%. At 7 m/s wind speed, fuel savings were 59% and energy savings were 7.8%. Economics are better for a peaking variable speed 50-kW wind/diesel system added to an existing diesel system to extend the installed capacity. At 7 m/s wind speed the fuel savings translate into ca $40,000 over 10 y and purchase of a $150,000 diesel generator is postponed. 7 figs., 1 tab

  1. Introducing a system of wind speed distributions for modeling properties of wind speed regimes around the world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Christopher; Schindler, Dirk; Laible, Jessica; Buchholz, Alexander

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Evaluation of statistical properties of 10,016 empirical wind speed distributions. • Analysis of the shape of empirical wind speed distributions by L-moment ratios. • Introduction of a new system of wind speed distributions (Swd). • Random forests classification of the most appropriate distribution. • Comprehensive goodness of Swd fit evaluation on a global scale. - Abstract: Accurate modeling of empirical wind speed distributions is a crucial step in the estimation of average wind turbine power output. For this purpose, the Weibull distribution has often been fitted to empirical wind speed distributions. However, the Weibull distribution has been found to be insufficient to reproduce many wind speed regimes existing around the world. Results from previous studies demonstrate that numerous one-component distributions as well as mixture distributions provide a better goodness-of-fit to empirical wind speed distributions than the Weibull distribution. Moreover, there is considerable interest to apply a single system of distributions that can be utilized to reproduce the large majority of near-surface wind speed regimes existing around the world. Therefore, a system of wind speed distributions was developed that is capable of reproducing the main characteristics of existing wind speed regimes. The proposed system consists of two one-component distributions (Kappa and Wakeby) and one mixture distribution (Burr-Generalized Extreme Value). A random forests classifier was trained in order to select the most appropriate of these three distributions for each of 10,016 globally distributed empirical wind speed distributions. The shape of the empirical wind speed distributions was described by L-moment ratios. The L-moment ratios were used as predictor variables for the random forests classifier. The goodness-of-fit of the system of wind speed distributions was evaluated according to eleven goodness-of-fit metrics, which were merged into one

  2. Comparison of NWP wind speeds and directions to measured wind speeds and directions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Astrup, Poul; Mikkelsen, Torben

    Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) of wind speed and direction has been compared to measurements for seven German sites for nuclear power plants, and for Risø, the site of the Danish nuclear research reactors now being decommissioned . For the German sites the data cover approximately three month...

  3. design of a small scale wind generator for low wind speed areas

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    USER

    Most small scale level wind turbine generators are directly driven system, variable speed, and partially ... the best solutions for small-scale wind power plants. Low-speed multi-pole PM generators ..... Designs of the Same Magnet Structure for.

  4. Spatial and temporal patterns of global onshore wind speed distribution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Yuyu; Smith, Steven J

    2013-01-01

    Wind power, a renewable energy source, can play an important role in electrical energy generation. Information regarding wind energy potential is important both for energy related modeling and for decision-making in the policy community. While wind speed datasets with high spatial and temporal resolution are often ultimately used for detailed planning, simpler assumptions are often used in analysis work. An accurate representation of the wind speed frequency distribution is needed in order to properly characterize wind energy potential. Using a power density method, this study estimated global variation in wind parameters as fitted to a Weibull density function using NCEP/climate forecast system reanalysis (CFSR) data over land areas. The Weibull distribution performs well in fitting the time series wind speed data at most locations according to R 2 , root mean square error, and power density error. The wind speed frequency distribution, as represented by the Weibull k parameter, exhibits a large amount of spatial variation, a regionally varying amount of seasonal variation, and relatively low decadal variation. We also analyzed the potential error in wind power estimation when a commonly assumed Rayleigh distribution (Weibull k = 2) is used. We find that the assumption of the same Weibull parameter across large regions can result in non-negligible errors. While large-scale wind speed data are often presented in the form of mean wind speeds, these results highlight the need to also provide information on the wind speed frequency distribution. (letter)

  5. Effectiveness of Changing Wind Turbine Cut-in Speed to Reduce Bat Fatalities at Wind Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huso, Manuela M. P. [Oregon State Univ., Corvallis, OR (United States); Hayes, John P. [Univ. of Florida, Gainesville, FL (United States)

    2009-04-01

    This report details an experiment on the effectiveness of changing wind turbine cut-in speed on reducing bat fatality from wind turbines at the Casselman Wind Project in Somerset County, Pennsylvania.

  6. Time Series Model of Wind Speed for Multi Wind Turbines based on Mixed Copula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nie Dan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Because wind power is intermittent, random and so on, large scale grid will directly affect the safe and stable operation of power grid. In order to make a quantitative study on the characteristics of the wind speed of wind turbine, the wind speed time series model of the multi wind turbine generator is constructed by using the mixed Copula-ARMA function in this paper, and a numerical example is also given. The research results show that the model can effectively predict the wind speed, ensure the efficient operation of the wind turbine, and provide theoretical basis for the stability of wind power grid connected operation.

  7. Can wind help explain seasonal differences in avian migration speed?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemp, M.U.; Shamoun-Baranes, J.; van Gasteren, H.; Bouten, W.; van Loon, E.E.

    2010-01-01

    A bird's ground speed is influenced by the wind conditions it encounters. Wind conditions, although variable, are not entirely random. Instead, wind exhibits persistent spatial and temporal dynamics described by the general circulation of the atmosphere. As such, in certain geographical areas wind's

  8. A nonlinear dynamics approach for incorporating wind-speed patterns into wind-power project evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffaker, Ray; Bittelli, Marco

    2015-01-01

    Wind-energy production may be expanded beyond regions with high-average wind speeds (such as the Midwest U.S.A.) to sites with lower-average speeds (such as the Southeast U.S.A.) by locating favorable regional matches between natural wind-speed and energy-demand patterns. A critical component of wind-power evaluation is to incorporate wind-speed dynamics reflecting documented diurnal and seasonal behavioral patterns. Conventional probabilistic approaches remove patterns from wind-speed data. These patterns must be restored synthetically before they can be matched with energy-demand patterns. How to accurately restore wind-speed patterns is a vexing problem spurring an expanding line of papers. We propose a paradigm shift in wind power evaluation that employs signal-detection and nonlinear-dynamics techniques to empirically diagnose whether synthetic pattern restoration can be avoided altogether. If the complex behavior of observed wind-speed records is due to nonlinear, low-dimensional, and deterministic system dynamics, then nonlinear dynamics techniques can reconstruct wind-speed dynamics from observed wind-speed data without recourse to conventional probabilistic approaches. In the first study of its kind, we test a nonlinear dynamics approach in an application to Sugarland Wind-the first utility-scale wind project proposed in Florida, USA. We find empirical evidence of a low-dimensional and nonlinear wind-speed attractor characterized by strong temporal patterns that match up well with regular daily and seasonal electricity demand patterns.

  9. Stochastic generation of hourly wind speed time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shamshad, A.; Wan Mohd Ali Wan Hussin; Bawadi, M.A.; Mohd Sanusi, S.A.

    2006-01-01

    In the present study hourly wind speed data of Kuala Terengganu in Peninsular Malaysia are simulated by using transition matrix approach of Markovian process. The wind speed time series is divided into various states based on certain criteria. The next wind speed states are selected based on the previous states. The cumulative probability transition matrix has been formed in which each row ends with 1. Using the uniform random numbers between 0 and 1, a series of future states is generated. These states have been converted to the corresponding wind speed values using another uniform random number generator. The accuracy of the model has been determined by comparing the statistical characteristics such as average, standard deviation, root mean square error, probability density function and autocorrelation function of the generated data to those of the original data. The generated wind speed time series data is capable to preserve the wind speed characteristics of the observed data

  10. Comparison of AMSR-2 wind speed and sea surface temperature ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    68

    characteristics and variable features where the wind circulation pattern is ..... is extended to understand the quality of AMSR-2 wind speed in a constructive ...... New Disclosures (potential conflicts of interest, funding, acknowledgements):.

  11. The influence of humidity fluxes on offshore wind speed profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane; Sempreviva, Anna Maria; Pryor, Sara

    2010-01-01

    extrapolation from lower measurements. With humid conditions and low mechanical turbulence offshore, deviations from the traditional logarithmic wind speed profile become significant and stability corrections are required. This research focuses on quantifying the effect of humidity fluxes on stability corrected...... wind speed profiles. The effect on wind speed profiles is found to be important in stable conditions where including humidity fluxes forces conditions towards neutral. Our results show that excluding humidity fluxes leads to average predicted wind speeds at 150 m from 10 m which are up to 4% higher...... than if humidity fluxes are included, and the results are not very sensitive to the method selected to estimate humidity fluxes....

  12. An Appropriate Wind Model for Wind Integrated Power Systems Reliability Evaluation Considering Wind Speed Correlations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Karki

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Adverse environmental impacts of carbon emissions are causing increasing concerns to the general public throughout the world. Electric energy generation from conventional energy sources is considered to be a major contributor to these harmful emissions. High emphasis is therefore being given to green alternatives of energy, such as wind and solar. Wind energy is being perceived as a promising alternative. This source of energy technology and its applications have undergone significant research and development over the past decade. As a result, many modern power systems include a significant portion of power generation from wind energy sources. The impact of wind generation on the overall system performance increases substantially as wind penetration in power systems continues to increase to relatively high levels. It becomes increasingly important to accurately model the wind behavior, the interaction with other wind sources and conventional sources, and incorporate the characteristics of the energy demand in order to carry out a realistic evaluation of system reliability. Power systems with high wind penetrations are often connected to multiple wind farms at different geographic locations. Wind speed correlations between the different wind farms largely affect the total wind power generation characteristics of such systems, and therefore should be an important parameter in the wind modeling process. This paper evaluates the effect of the correlation between multiple wind farms on the adequacy indices of wind-integrated systems. The paper also proposes a simple and appropriate probabilistic analytical model that incorporates wind correlations, and can be used for adequacy evaluation of multiple wind-integrated systems.

  13. A multiple-fan active control wind tunnel for outdoor wind speed and direction simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jia-Ying; Meng, Qing-Hao; Luo, Bing; Zeng, Ming

    2018-03-01

    This article presents a new type of active controlled multiple-fan wind tunnel. The wind tunnel consists of swivel plates and arrays of direct current fans, and the rotation speed of each fan and the shaft angle of each swivel plate can be controlled independently for simulating different kinds of outdoor wind fields. To measure the similarity between the simulated wind field and the outdoor wind field, wind speed and direction time series of two kinds of wind fields are recorded by nine two-dimensional ultrasonic anemometers, and then statistical properties of the wind signals in different time scales are analyzed based on the empirical mode decomposition. In addition, the complexity of wind speed and direction time series is also investigated using multiscale entropy and multivariate multiscale entropy. Results suggest that the simulated wind field in the multiple-fan wind tunnel has a high degree of similarity with the outdoor wind field.

  14. Determination trends and abnormal seasonal wind speed in Iraq

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hassoon, Ahmed F. [Department of Atmospheric Sciences, College of Science, AL- Mustansiriyah University, Baghdad (Iraq)

    2013-07-01

    Monthly observed wind speed data at four weather stations (Baghdad, Mosul, Basra, Rutba) at 10m above surface were used to explore the temporal variations of the wind speed (1971-2000) in Iraq. There are different methods to analyze wind speed variation data, but the time series are one of the powerful analysis methods to diagnose the seasonal wind speed anomaly. The results show most high abnormal data is found in summer seasons in all the stations of study, where it concentrated at 1975, 1976, 1978,1996-1995, 2000. Rutba station is different where its high deviation about annual average at nearly all the seasons, in this station there are trends in seasonal wind towards decreases in all the seasons, for example in winter it reached to about 0.046m/s.a-1, while in other stations Mosul and Basra there increases in annual seasonal wind speed trends in seasons spring, summer, autumn where its reached higher value at summer in Basra about 0.0482m/s.a-1. The second method to determine abnormal annual seasonal wind speed is through comparison seasonal average wind speed, where the average wind speed at the seasons summer and spring in Baghdad and Basra station have very high averages at nearly all years, this cannot see in Mosul and Rutba, in Rutba the seasonal average is intersected with each other, summer and spring is not have greater seasonal average in this station.

  15. Potential of Offshore Wind Energy and Extreme Wind Speed Forecasting on the West Coast of Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pei-Chi Chang

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available It is of great importance and urgency for Taiwan to develop offshore wind power. However, relevant data on offshore wind energy resources are limited. This study imported wind speeds measured by a tidal station and a buoy into the software WAsP to estimate the high-altitude wind speeds in the two areas. A light detection and ranging (Lidar system was set up near the tidal station and buoy. High-altitude wind speeds measured by the Lidar system were compared with the WAsP-estimated values, and it was discovered that the two data sets were consistent. Then, long-term wind speed data observed by buoys and tidal stations at various locations were imported into WAsP to forecast wind speeds at heights of 55–200 m on the west coast of Taiwan. The software WAsP Engineering was used to analyze the extreme wind speeds in the same areas. The results show that wind speeds at 100 m are approximately 9.32–11.24 m/s, which means that the coastal areas of west Taiwan are rich in wind energy resources. When a long-term 10-min average wind speed is used, the extreme wind speed on the west coast is estimated to be between 36.4 and 55.3 m/s.

  16. Modeling of the dynamics of wind to power conversion including high wind speed behavior

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Litong-Palima, Marisciel; Bjerge, Martin Huus; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes and validates an efficient, generic and computationally simple dynamic model for the conversion of the wind speed at hub height into the electrical power by a wind turbine. This proposed wind turbine model was developed as a first step to simulate wind power time series...... for power system studies. This paper focuses on describing and validating the single wind turbine model, and is therefore neither describing wind speed modeling nor aggregation of contributions from a whole wind farm or a power system area. The state-of-the-art is to use static power curves for the purpose...... of power system studies, but the idea of the proposed wind turbine model is to include the main dynamic effects in order to have a better representation of the fluctuations in the output power and of the fast power ramping especially because of high wind speed shutdowns of the wind turbine. The high wind...

  17. A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morales, J.M.; Conejo, A.J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, Univ. Castilla - La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain); Minguez, R. [Environmental Hydraulics Institute ' ' IH Cantabria' ' , Univ. Cantabria, Avenida de los Castros s/n, 39005 Santander (Spain)

    2010-03-15

    Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn. (author)

  18. A methodology to generate statistically dependent wind speed scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morales, J.M.; Minguez, R.; Conejo, A.J.

    2010-01-01

    Wind power - a renewable energy source increasingly attractive from an economic viewpoint - constitutes an electricity production alternative of growing relevance in current electric energy systems. However, wind power is an intermittent source that cannot be dispatched at the will of the producer. Modeling wind power production requires characterizing wind speed at the sites where the wind farms are located. The wind speed at a particular location can be described through a stochastic process that is spatially correlated with the stochastic processes describing wind speeds at other locations. This paper provides a methodology to characterize the stochastic processes pertaining to wind speed at different geographical locations via scenarios. Each one of these scenarios embodies time dependencies and is spatially dependent of the scenarios describing other wind stochastic processes. The scenarios generated by the proposed methodology are intended to be used within stochastic programming decision models to make informed decisions pertaining to wind power production. The methodology proposed is accurate in reproducing wind speed historical series as well as computationally efficient. A comprehensive case study is used to illustrate the capabilities of the proposed methodology. Appropriate conclusions are finally drawn.

  19. Observer Backstepping Control for Variable Speed Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galeazzi, Roberto; Gryning, Mikkel Peter Sidoroff; Blanke, Mogens

    2013-01-01

    . The nonlinear controller aims at regulating the generator torque such that an optimal tip-speed ratio can be obtained. Simply relying on the measured rotor angular velocity the proposed observer backstepping controller guarantees global asymptotic tracking of the desired trajectory while maintaining a globally......This paper presents an observer backstepping controller as feasible solution to variable speed control of wind turbines to maximize wind power capture when operating between cut-in and rated wind speeds. The wind turbine is modeled as a two-mass drive-train system controlled by the generator torque...

  20. Pitch Angle Control for Variable Speed Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Zhe; Zhang, Jianzhong; Cheng, M

    2008-01-01

    Pitch angle control is the most common means for adjusting the aerodynamic torque of the wind turbine when wind speed is above rated speed and various controlling variables may be chosen, such as wind speed, generator speed and generator power. As conventional pitch control usually use PI...... controller, the mathematical model of the system should be known well. A fuzzy logic pitch angle controller is developed in this paper, in which it does not need well known about the system and the mean wind speed is used to compensate the non-linear sensitivity. The fuzzy logic control strategy may have...... the potential when the system contains strong non-linearity, such as wind turbulence is strong, or the control objectives include fatigue loads. The design of the fuzzy logic controller and the comparisons with conversional pitch angle control strategies with various controlling variables are carried out...

  1. Prediction models for wind speed at turbine locations in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben; Bak, Thomas; Soltani, Mohsen

    2011-01-01

    In wind farms, individual turbines disturb the wind field by generating wakes that influence other turbines in the farm. From a control point of view, there is an interest in dynamic optimization of the balance between fatigue and production, and an understanding of the relationship between turbines...... on standard turbine measurements such as rotor speed and power produced, an effective wind speed, which represents the wind field averaged over the rotor disc, is derived. The effective wind speed estimator is based on a continuous–discrete extended Kalman filter that takes advantage of nonlinear time varying...... on the result related to effective wind speed, it is possible to predict wind speeds at neighboring turbines, with a separation of over 700 m, up to 1 min ahead reducing the error by 30% compared with a persistence method. The methodological results are demonstrated on data from an off-shore wind farm...

  2. Wind speed errors for LIDARs and SODARs in complex terrain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bradley, S

    2008-01-01

    All commercial LIDARs and SODARs are monostatic and hence sample distributed volumes to construct wind vector components. We use an analytic potential flow model to estimate errors arising for a range of LIDAR and SODAR configurations on hills and escarpments. Wind speed errors peak at a height relevant to wind turbines and can be typically 20%

  3. Wind speed errors for LIDARs and SODARs in complex terrain

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, S [Physics Department, The University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland (New Zealand) and School of Computing, Science and Engineering, University of Salford, M5 4WT (United Kingdom)], E-mail: s.bradley@auckland.ac.nz

    2008-05-01

    All commercial LIDARs and SODARs are monostatic and hence sample distributed volumes to construct wind vector components. We use an analytic potential flow model to estimate errors arising for a range of LIDAR and SODAR configurations on hills and escarpments. Wind speed errors peak at a height relevant to wind turbines and can be typically 20%.

  4. Actuator disk model of wind farms based on the rotor average wind speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Han, Xing Xing; Xu, Chang; Liu, De You

    2016-01-01

    Due to difficulty of estimating the reference wind speed for wake modeling in wind farm, this paper proposes a new method to calculate the momentum source based on the rotor average wind speed. The proposed model applies volume correction factor to reduce the influence of the mesh recognition of ...

  5. Assessment of C-Type Darrieus Wind Turbine Under Low Wind Speed Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misaran, M. S.; Rahman, Md. M.; Muzammil, W. K.; Ismail, M. A.

    2017-07-01

    Harvesting wind energy in in a low wind speed region is deem un-economical if not daunting task. Study shows that a minimum cut in speed of 3.5 m/s is required to extract a meaningful wind energy for electricity while a mean speed of 6 m/s is preferred. However, in Malaysia the mean speed is at 2 m/s with certain potential areas having 3 m/s mean speed. Thus, this work aims to develop a wind turbine that able to operate at lower cut-in speed and produce meaningful power for electricity generation. A C-type Darrieus blade is selected as it shows good potential to operate in arbitrary wind speed condition. The wind turbine is designed and fabricated in UMS labs while the performance of the wind turbine is evaluated in a simulated wind condition. Test result shows that the wind turbine started to rotate at 1 m/s compared to a NACA 0012 Darrieus turbine that started to rotate at 3 m/s. The performance of the turbine shows that it have good potential to be used in an intermittent arbitrary wind speed condition as well as low mean wind speed condition.

  6. The “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies” Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sperati, Simone; Alessandrini, Stefano; Pinson, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    the power output of two wind farms and two photovoltaic power plants, in order to compare the merits of forecasts based on different modeling approaches and input data. It was thus possible to obtain a better knowledge of the state of the art in both wind and solar power forecasting, with an overview...

  7. Transient analysis of variable-speed wind turbines at wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melicio, R.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    As wind power generation undergoes rapid growth, new technical challenges emerge: dynamic stability and power quality. The influence of wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction on the quality of the energy injected into the electric grid is studied for variable-speed wind turbines with different power-electronic converter topologies. Additionally, a new control strategy is proposed for the variable-speed operation of wind turbines with permanent magnet synchronous generators. The performance of disturbance attenuation and system robustness is ascertained. Simulation results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn.

  8. Transient analysis of variable-speed wind turbines at wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melicio, R. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-04-15

    As wind power generation undergoes rapid growth, new technical challenges emerge: dynamic stability and power quality. The influence of wind speed disturbances and a pitch control malfunction on the quality of the energy injected into the electric grid is studied for variable-speed wind turbines with different power-electronic converter topologies. Additionally, a new control strategy is proposed for the variable-speed operation of wind turbines with permanent magnet synchronous generators. The performance of disturbance attenuation and system robustness is ascertained. Simulation results are presented and conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

  9. Variable speed control for Vertical Axis Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Galinos, Christos; Larsen, Torben J.

    A robust variable speed control for vertical axis wind turbine applications is implemented. It is a PI rotor speed controller based on an induction generator model operated at variable frequency. The generator dynamics are approximated by a first order differential equation with a prescribed slip....... In order to allow variability in the rotor speed an inverter is assumed which changes the nominal generator speed. Below rated power the optimum tip speed ratio is tracked, while above the power is constrained to rated. The wind speed which is needed in the control it is considered as a known signal...... the Inflow project. The investigation of the VAWT performance under different control parameters such as the PI gains has been performed by Christos Galinos. Deterministic and turbulent wind speed steps of 2 m/s from 6 m/s to 24 m/s and back to 12 m/s are applied. The controller gives smooth transient...

  10. Verification of high-speed solar wind stream forecasts using operational solar wind models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reiss, Martin A.; Temmer, Manuela; Veronig, Astrid M.

    2016-01-01

    and the background solar wind conditions. We found that both solar wind models are capable of predicting the large-scale features of the observed solar wind speed (root-mean-square error, RMSE ≈100 km/s) but tend to either overestimate (ESWF) or underestimate (WSA) the number of high-speed solar wind streams (threat......High-speed solar wind streams emanating from coronal holes are frequently impinging on the Earth's magnetosphere causing recurrent, medium-level geomagnetic storm activity. Modeling high-speed solar wind streams is thus an essential element of successful space weather forecasting. Here we evaluate...... high-speed stream forecasts made by the empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) and the semiempirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model based on the in situ plasma measurements from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft for the years 2011 to 2014. While the ESWF makes use of an empirical relation...

  11. Acoustic and wind speed data analysis as an environmental issue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitson, R.J.; MacKinnon, A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper examines how the output from a cup anemometer, used for wind speed measurement, can be recorded on magnetic tape and analysed using instrumentation normally employed to measure acoustic data. The purpose of this being to allow true simultaneous analysis of acoustic and wind speed data. NEL's NWTC (National Wind Turbine Centre) Anemometer Calibration Facility is used to compare pulsed and analogue outputs from a typical anemometer to the data obtained from a pitot/static tube for a range of different wind speeds. The usefulness of 1/24- and 1/12-octave analysis is examined and accuracy limits are derived for the 'acoustic' approach to wind speed measurement. The allowable positions for anemometer locations are also discussed with reference to currently available standards and recommended practices. (Author)

  12. Estimation of extreme wind speeds in the mixed strong wind climate of South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kruger, AC

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available wind-generating mechanisms for Australia. Annual extreme wind speeds are generated by different mechanisms, forthcoming from thunderstorm activity and the passages of extratropical low pressure systems, which were identified. Separate extreme value...

  13. Correlation of mesoscale wind speeds over the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mehrens, Anna R.; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Hahmann, Andrea N.

    2016-01-01

    A large offshore observational data set from stations across the North and Baltic Sea is used to investigate the planetary boundary layer wind characteristics and their coherence, correlation and power spectra. The data of thirteen sites, with pairs of sites at a horizontal distance of 4 to 848 km...... on measurements and the WRF-derived time series. By normalising the frequency axes with the distance and mean wind speed it can be demonstrated that even for data with a wide range of distances, the coherence is a function of the frequency, mean wind and distance, which is consistent with earlier studies....... The correlation coefficient as a function of the distance calculated from WRF is however higher than observed in the measurements. For the power spectra, wind speed and wind speed step changes distribution the results for all sites are quite similar. The land masses strongly influence the individual wind...

  14. Representivity of wind measurements for design wind speed estimations

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Goliger, Adam M

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available of instrumentation sited according to World Meteorological Organization (WMO) requirements. With the advent of automatic weather station technology several decades ago, wind measurements have become much more cost-effective. While previously wind measurements were...

  15. Tephra Sedimentation from a Short-term Wind-affected Volcanic Plume of the 8 October 2016 Aso Nakadake Eruption, Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsuji, T.; Nishizaka, N.; Onishi, K.

    2017-12-01

    Sedimentation processes during explosive volcanic eruptions can be constrained based on detailed analysis of grain-size variation of tephra deposits. Especially, an accurate description of the amount of fine particles has also significant implications for the assessment of specific tephra hazards. Grain size studies for single short-term eruption has advantage to contribute understanding the sedimentation processes because it is simple compared to long-lasting eruption. The 2016 Aso Nakadake eruption, Japan represents an ideal for the study of short-term eruptions thanks to an accurate investigation. Then, we investigate the grain size variation with distance from the vent and sedimentological features of the deposit to discuss the sedimentation processes of the tephra fragments. The eruption provided pyroclastic flow deposit and fallout tephra which distributed NE to ENE direction from the vent. The deposits between 4 and 20 km from vent consist of fine-coated lapilli to coarse ash, ash pellet and mud droplet in ascending degree. The samples are lapilli-bearing within 20 km from vent and those outside of 20 km mainly consist of ash particles. Detailed analyses of individual samples highlight a rapid decay of maximum and mean grain size for the deposit from proximal to distal. The decay trend of maximum grain-size is approximated by three segments of exponential curves with two breaks-in-slope at 10 and 40 km from vent. Most of the sampled deposits are characterized by bimodal grain-size distributions, with the modes of the coarse subpopulation decreasing with distance from vent and those of the fine subpopulation being mostly stable. The fine subpopulation has been interpreted as being mostly associated with size-selective sedimentation processes (e.g., particle aggregation) confirmed by the existence of fine-coated particles, ash pellet and mud droplet. As the fine-coated particles generally have a higher terminal velocity than the individual constituent

  16. Wind speed dynamical model in a wind farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soleimanzadeh, Maryam; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2010-01-01

    , the dynamic model for wind flow will be established. The state space variables are determined based on a fine mesh defined for the farm. The end goal of this method is to assist the development of a dynamical model of a wind farm that can be engaged for better wind farm control strategies....

  17. Flicker Mitigation by Speed Control of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator Variable-Speed Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Zhang, Yunqian; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    operation. A new method of flicker mitigation by controlling the rotational speed is proposed. It smoothes the 3p active power oscillations from wind shear and tower shadow effects of the wind turbine by varying the rotational speed of the PMSG. Simulation results show that damping the 3p active power...... oscillation by using the flicker mitigation speed controller is an effective means for flicker mitigation of variable speed wind turbines with full-scale back-to-back power converters and PMSG during continuous operation.......Grid-connected wind turbines are fluctuating power sources that may produce flicker during continuous operation. This paper presents a simulation model of a MW-level variable speed wind turbine with a full-scale back-to-back power converter and permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG...

  18. Lack of evidence for short-term structural changes in bird assemblages breeding in Mediterranean mosaics moderately perforated by a wind farm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Battisti

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We studied a set of common breeding birds living in a heterogeneous oak wood mosaic of Apennines (central Italy where a wind farm occurred. Aim to assess differences in composition and structure between a treatment area (with wind farm turbines and a control area (without wind farm turbines. We did not observe differences at assemblage (uni-and bi-variate metrics of diversity: mean species richness, Shannon–Wiener diversity index, evenness, Whittaker βw index and diversity/dominance diagrams, guild and species level (relative frequencies. The limited habitat perforation and dissection induced by wind farm turbines and service roads (10% in area and the consequent changes in spatial heterogeneity and level of anthropogenic disturbance (induced by a higher motor-car and people frequentation did not seem to affect the breeding bird communities in oak mosaics, as supported also by the diversity/dominance analysis. However, our preliminary conclusions are limited only to the indirect impact on common breeding bird species and are not related on to possible direct impacts deriving from wind farm facilities and related infrastructures (e.g., direct impact for collision. Moreover, further research is necessary to detect possible higher thresholds in habitat perforation that may induce changes in breeding bird assemblages.

  19. ROLE OF THE CORONAL ALFVÉN SPEED IN MODULATING THE SOLAR-WIND HELIUM ABUNDANCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y.-M., E-mail: yi.wang@nrl.navy.mil [Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC 20375 (United States)

    2016-12-20

    The helium abundance He/H in the solar wind is relatively constant at ∼0.04 in high-speed streams, but varies in phase with the sunspot number in slow wind, from ∼0.01 at solar minimum to ∼0.04 at maximum. Suggested mechanisms for helium fractionation have included frictional coupling to protons and resonant interactions with high-frequency Alfvénic fluctuations. We compare He/H measurements during 1995–2015 with coronal parameters derived from source-surface extrapolations of photospheric field maps. We find that the near-Earth helium abundance is an increasing function of the magnetic field strength and Alfvén speed v {sub A} in the outer corona, while being only weakly correlated with the proton flux density. Throughout the solar cycle, fast wind is associated with short-term increases in v {sub A} near the source surface; resonance with Alfvén waves, with v {sub A} and the relative speed of α -particles and protons decreasing with increasing heliocentric distance, may then lead to enhanced He/H at 1 au. The modulation of helium in slow wind reflects the tendency for the associated coronal Alfvén speeds to rise steeply from sunspot minimum, when this wind is concentrated around the source-surface neutral line, to sunspot maximum, when the source-surface field attains its peak strengths. The helium abundance near the source surface may represent a balance between collisional decoupling from protons and Alfvén wave acceleration.

  20. Effects of Yaw Error on Wind Turbine Running Characteristics Based on the Equivalent Wind Speed Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuting Wan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Natural wind is stochastic, being characterized by its speed and direction which change randomly and frequently. Because of the certain lag in control systems and the yaw body itself, wind turbines cannot be accurately aligned toward the wind direction when the wind speed and wind direction change frequently. Thus, wind turbines often suffer from a series of engineering issues during operation, including frequent yaw, vibration overruns and downtime. This paper aims to study the effects of yaw error on wind turbine running characteristics at different wind speeds and control stages by establishing a wind turbine model, yaw error model and the equivalent wind speed model that includes the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Formulas for the relevant effect coefficients Tc, Sc and Pc were derived. The simulation results indicate that the effects of the aerodynamic torque, rotor speed and power output due to yaw error at different running stages are different and that the effect rules for each coefficient are not identical when the yaw error varies. These results may provide theoretical support for optimizing the yaw control strategies for each stage to increase the running stability of wind turbines and the utilization rate of wind energy.

  1. A joint probability density function of wind speed and direction for wind energy analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carta, Jose A.; Ramirez, Penelope; Bueno, Celia

    2008-01-01

    A very flexible joint probability density function of wind speed and direction is presented in this paper for use in wind energy analysis. A method that enables angular-linear distributions to be obtained with specified marginal distributions has been used for this purpose. For the marginal distribution of wind speed we use a singly truncated from below Normal-Weibull mixture distribution. The marginal distribution of wind direction comprises a finite mixture of von Mises distributions. The proposed model is applied in this paper to wind direction and wind speed hourly data recorded at several weather stations located in the Canary Islands (Spain). The suitability of the distributions is judged from the coefficient of determination R 2 . The conclusions reached are that the joint distribution proposed in this paper: (a) can represent unimodal, bimodal and bitangential wind speed frequency distributions, (b) takes into account the frequency of null winds, (c) represents the wind direction regimes in zones with several modes or prevailing wind directions, (d) takes into account the correlation between wind speeds and its directions. It can therefore be used in several tasks involved in the evaluation process of the wind resources available at a potential site. We also conclude that, in the case of the Canary Islands, the proposed model provides better fits in all the cases analysed than those obtained with the models used in the specialised literature on wind energy

  2. Critical Speed Control for a Fixed Blade Variable Speed Wind Turbine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Morgan Rossander

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available A critical speed controller for avoiding a certain rotational speed is presented. The controller is useful for variable speed wind turbines with a natural frequency in the operating range. The controller has been simulated, implemented and tested on an open site 12 kW vertical axis wind turbine prototype. The controller is based on an adaptation of the optimum torque control. Two lookup tables and a simple state machine provide the control logic of the controller. The controller requires low computational resources, and no wind speed measurement is needed. The results suggest that the controller is a feasible method for critical speed control. The skipping behavior can be adjusted using only two parameters. While tested on a vertical axis wind turbine, it may be used on any variable speed turbine with the control of generator power.

  3. Wind Speed Influences on Marine Aerosol Optical Depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Colin O'Dowd

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Mulcahy (Mulcahy et al., 2008 power-law parameterization, derived at the coastal Atlantic station Mace Head, between clean marine aerosol optical depth (AOD and wind speed is compared to open ocean MODIS-derived AOD versus wind speed. The reported AOD versus wind speed (U was a function of ∼U2. The open ocean MODIS-derived AOD at 550 nm and 860 nm wavelengths, while in good agreement with the general magnitude of the Mulcahy parameterization, follows a power-law with the exponent ranging from 0.72 to 2.47 for a wind speed range of 2–18 m s−1. For the four cases examined, some MODIS cases underestimated AOD while other cases overestimated AOD relative to the Mulcahy scheme. Overall, the results from MODIS support the general power-law relationship of Mulcahy, although some linear cases were also encountered in the MODIS dataset. Deviations also arise between MODIS and Mulcahy at higher wind speeds (>15 m s−1, where MODIS-derived AOD returns lower values as compared to Mulcahy. The results also support the suggestion than wind generated sea spray, under moderately high winds, can rival anthropogenic pollution plumes advecting out into marine environments with wind driven AOD contributing to AOD values approaching 0.3.

  4. Onshore Wind Speed Modulates Microbial Aerosols along an Urban Waterfront

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Elias Dueker

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Wind blowing over aquatic and terrestrial surfaces produces aerosols, which include microbial aerosols. We studied the effect of onshore wind speeds on aerosol concentrations as well as total and culturable microbial aerosols (bacterial and viral at an urban waterfront (New York, NY, United States of America. We used two distinct methods to characterize microbial aerosol responses to wind speed: A culture-based exposure-plate method measuring viable bacterial deposition near-shore (CFU accumulation rate; and a culture-independent aerosol sampler-based method measuring total bacterial and viral aerosols (cells m−3 air. While ambient coarse (>2 µm and fine (0.3–2 µm aerosol particle number concentrations (regulated indicators of air quality decreased with increasing onshore wind speeds, total and depositing culturable bacterial aerosols and total viral aerosols increased. Taxonomic identification of the 16S rDNA of bacterial aerosol isolates suggested both terrestrial and aquatic sources. Wind appears to increase microbial aerosol number concentrations in the near-shore environment by onshore transport at low wind speeds (<4 m s−1, and increased local production and transport of new microbial aerosols from adjacent water surfaces at higher wind speeds (>4 m s−1. This study demonstrates a wind-modulated microbial connection between water and air in the coastal urban environment, with implications for public health management and urban microbial ecology.

  5. Estimation of wind speed and wave height during cyclones

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    SanilKumar, V.; Mandal, S.; AshokKumar, K.

    , the isobaric charts were collected at three hourly intervals from the India Meteorological Department. The storm variables such as central pressure, radius of maximum wind, speed of forward motion and direction of storm movement were extracted and the method...

  6. VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 70 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 70m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  7. VT Predicted Mean Wind Speed - 30 meter height

    Data.gov (United States)

    Vermont Center for Geographic Information — (Link to Metadata) Wind speed predictions at 30m are generated by a numerical model that simulates weather conditions over a 15-year period, taking into account...

  8. Economic performance indicators of wind energy based on wind speed stochastic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D’Amico, Guglielmo; Petroni, Filippo; Prattico, Flavio

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a new and different wind energy production indicator. • We compute financial profitability of potential wind power sites. • The wind speed process is modeled as an indexed semi-Markov chain. • We check if the wind energy is a good investment with and without incentives. - Abstract: We propose the computation of different wind energy production indicators and financial profitability of potential wind power sites. The computation is performed by modeling the wind speed process as an indexed semi-Markov chain to predict and simulate the wind speed dynamics. We demonstrate that the indexed semi-Markov chain approach enables reproducing the indicators calculated on real data. Two different time horizons of 15 and 30 years are analyzed. In the first case we consider the government incentives on the energy price now present in Italy, while in the second case the incentives have not been taken into account

  9. Measured wind speed trends on the west coast of Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuller, Stanton E.

    2004-09-01

    Trends in measured wind speed are discussed for four stations on the west coast of Canada. Periods of record vary with the station. They begin in the late 1940s or the 1950s and run through to the early to mid 1990s. The most prominent feature of the time series was a decline in mean annual and winter wind speeds at Cape St James, Victoria International Airport, and Vancouver International Airport during the middle portion of the record. Declines in mean annual wind speed are matched by increases in the percentage of calms and decreases in high wind speed observations. The pressure gradient between Victoria, Vancouver and Comox, the Pacific North American index, the Pacific decadal oscillation index, and other climate elements in British Columbia and the northwestern USA show trends at roughly the same time, indicating a natural cause of the wind speed decrease. Comox Airport mean wind speeds increased, however, perhaps the result of reduced friction in the vicinity of the anemometer outweighing the decrease in the regional pressure gradient.

  10. Idealized models of the joint probability distribution of wind speeds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monahan, Adam H.

    2018-05-01

    The joint probability distribution of wind speeds at two separate locations in space or points in time completely characterizes the statistical dependence of these two quantities, providing more information than linear measures such as correlation. In this study, we consider two models of the joint distribution of wind speeds obtained from idealized models of the dependence structure of the horizontal wind velocity components. The bivariate Rice distribution follows from assuming that the wind components have Gaussian and isotropic fluctuations. The bivariate Weibull distribution arises from power law transformations of wind speeds corresponding to vector components with Gaussian, isotropic, mean-zero variability. Maximum likelihood estimates of these distributions are compared using wind speed data from the mid-troposphere, from different altitudes at the Cabauw tower in the Netherlands, and from scatterometer observations over the sea surface. While the bivariate Rice distribution is more flexible and can represent a broader class of dependence structures, the bivariate Weibull distribution is mathematically simpler and may be more convenient in many applications. The complexity of the mathematical expressions obtained for the joint distributions suggests that the development of explicit functional forms for multivariate speed distributions from distributions of the components will not be practical for more complicated dependence structure or more than two speed variables.

  11. Variations in long term wind speed during different decades in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A study has been carried out by comparing the extreme wind speeds estimated based on. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 100 ... Analysis has shown slight upward trend in the annual maximum wind for location off Machilipatnam with ... storm surges and also it affects the offshore marine operations. Several studies were ...

  12. Wind speed power spectrum analysis for Bushland, Texas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eggleston, E.D. [USDA-Agricultural Research Service, Bushland, TX (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Numerous papers and publications on wind turbulence have referenced the wind speed spectrum presented by Isaac Van der Hoven in his article entitled Power Spectrum of Horizontal Wind Speed Spectrum in the Frequency Range from 0.0007 to 900 Cycles per Hour. Van der Hoven used data measured at different heights between 91 and 125 meters above the ground, and represented the high frequency end of the spectrum with data from the peak hour of hurricane Connie. These facts suggest we should question the use of his power spectrum in the wind industry. During the USDA - Agricultural Research Service`s investigation of wind/diesel system power storage, using the appropriate wind speed power spectrum became a significant issue. We developed a power spectrum from 13 years of hourly average data, 1 year of 5 minute average data, and 2 particularly gusty day`s 1 second average data all collected at a height of 10 meters. While the general shape is similar to the Van der Hoven spectrum, few of his peaks were found in the Bushland spectrum. While higher average wind speeds tend to suggest higher amplitudes in the high frequency end of the spectrum, this is not always true. Also, the high frequency end of the spectrum is not accurately described by simple wind statistics such as standard deviation and turbulence intensity. 2 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  13. Optimal multivariable control of a wind turbine with variable speed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steinbuch, M.

    1987-01-01

    The control system design for a 310 kW horizontal axis wind energy conversion system with a synchronous generator and DC link is investigated. Because the wind turbine system has multiple inputs (pitch angle, field vollage alld delay angle), and multiple outputs, (speed and power), and because the

  14. Statistical analysis of wind speed for electrical power generation in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Also, the results have shown that Jos, Kano and Minna fall in class 4 and therefore suitable for both off grid and grid connected modes. In addition, the effects of c and k parameters on the probability distribution functions have been presented. Keywords: Wind speed - probability - density function – wind energy conversion ...

  15. Adaptive Torque Control of Variable Speed Wind Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, K. E.

    2004-08-01

    The primary focus of this work is a new adaptive controller that is designed to resemble the standard non-adaptive controller used by the wind industry for variable speed wind turbines below rated power. This adaptive controller uses a simple, highly intuitive gain adaptation law designed to seek out the optimal gain for maximizing the turbine's energy capture. It is designed to work even in real, time-varying winds.

  16. Rotor equivalent wind speed for power curve measurement – comparative exercise for IEA Wind Annex 32

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Rozenn; Cañadillas, B.; Clifton, A.

    2014-01-01

    was the definition of the segment area used as weighting for the wind speeds measured at the various heights in the calculation of the REWS. This comparative exercise showed that the REWS method results in a significant difference compared to the standard method using the wind speed at hub height in conditions...

  17. Modelling Wind for Wind Farm Layout Optimization Using Joint Distribution of Wind Speed and Wind Direction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Ju; Shen, Wen Zhong

    2015-01-01

    Reliable wind modelling is of crucial importance for wind farm development. The common practice of using sector-wise Weibull distributions has been found inappropriate for wind farm layout optimization. In this study, we propose a simple and easily implementable method to construct joint distribu...

  18. Prediction of wind power potential by wind speed probability distribution in a hilly terrain near Bh

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahmed, Siraj; Diwakar, Nilesh

    2010-09-15

    Daily wind speed data in metre per second and its direction of flow in degree were recorded from of the India Meteorological Department for a site near the Bhopal Airport for the period of eleven years. The influence of roughness of the terrain, obstacles and topography in terms of contour for the area were also taken into consideration. These data were analysed using WAsP programme and regional wind climate of the area was determined. It is seen from the analysis of the wind speed data and keeping the topographical variation of terrain, exploitable wind speed is experienced at 50 m.

  19. Thermal loading of wind power converter considering dynamics of wind speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baygildina, Elvira; Peltoniemi, Pasi; Pyrhönen, Olli

    2013-01-01

    The thermal loading of power semiconductors is a crucial performance related to the reliability and cost of the wind power converter. However, the thermal loading impacts by the variation of wind speeds have not yet been clarified, especially when considering the aerodynamic behavior of the wind...... turbines. In this paper, the junction temperatures in the wind power converter are studied under not only steady state, but also turbulent wind speed conditions. The study is based on a 1.5 MW direct-driven turbine system with aerodynamic model described by Unsteady Blade Element Momentum Method (BEMM......), and the thermal stress of power devices is investigated from the frequency spectrum point of view of wind speed. It is concluded that because of the strong inertia effects by the aerodynamic behavior of wind turbines, thermal stress of the semiconductors is relatively more stable and only influenced by the low...

  20. Wind-stilling in the light of wind speed measurements: the Czech experience

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Valík, A.; Zahradníček, Pavel; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Tolasz, R.; Možný, M.

    2018-01-01

    Roč. 74 (2018), s. 131-143 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA ČR(CZ) GA15-11805S Institutional support: RVO:86652079 Keywords : universal anemograph * vaisala wind-speed sensors * wind speed * homogenisation * wind stilling * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 1.578, year: 2016

  1. Hurricane Wind Speed Estimation Using WindSat 6 and 10 GHz Brightness Temperatures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The realistic and accurate estimation of hurricane intensity is highly desired in many scientific and operational applications. With the advance of passive microwave polarimetry, an alternative opportunity for retrieving wind speed in hurricanes has become available. A wind speed retrieval algorithm for wind speeds above 20 m/s in hurricanes has been developed by using the 6.8 and 10.7 GHz vertically and horizontally polarized brightness temperatures of WindSat. The WindSat measurements for 15 category 4 and category 5 hurricanes from 2003 to 2010 and the corresponding H*wind analysis data are used to develop and validate the retrieval model. In addition, the retrieved wind speeds are also compared to the Remote Sensing Systems (RSS global all-weather product and stepped-frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR measurements. The statistical results show that the mean bias and the overall root-mean-square (RMS difference of the retrieved wind speeds with respect to the H*wind analysis data are 0.04 and 2.75 m/s, respectively, which provides an encouraging result for retrieving hurricane wind speeds over the ocean surface. The retrieved wind speeds show good agreement with the SFMR measurements. Two case studies demonstrate that the mean bias and RMS difference are 0.79 m/s and 1.79 m/s for hurricane Rita-1 and 0.63 m/s and 2.38 m/s for hurricane Rita-2, respectively. In general, the wind speed retrieval accuracy of the new model in hurricanes ranges from 2.0 m/s in light rain to 3.9 m/s in heavy rain.

  2. Flicker Mitigation by Speed Control of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator Variable-Speed Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanting Hu

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Grid-connected wind turbines are fluctuating power sources that may produce flicker during continuous operation. This paper presents a simulation model of a MW-level variable speed wind turbine with a full-scale back-to-back power converter and permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG developed in the simulation tool of PSCAD/EMTDC. Flicker emission of this system is investigated. The 3p (three times per revolution power oscillation due to wind shear and tower shadow effects is the significant part in the flicker emission of variable speed wind turbines with PMSG during continuous operation. A new method of flicker mitigation by controlling the rotational speed is proposed. It smoothes the 3p active power oscillations from wind shear and tower shadow effects of the wind turbine by varying the rotational speed of the PMSG. Simulation results show that damping the 3p active power oscillation by using the flicker mitigation speed controller is an effective means for flicker mitigation of variable speed wind turbines with full-scale back-to-back power converters and PMSG during continuous operation.

  3. Wind speed forecasting in the South Coast of Oaxaca, Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadenas, Erasmo [Facultad de Ingenieria Mecanica, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Santiago Tapia No. 403, Centro (Mexico); Rivera, Wilfrido [Centro de Investigacion en Energia of the Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM), Apartado Postal 34, Temixco 62580, Morelos (Mexico)

    2007-10-15

    Comparison of two techniques for wind speed forecasting in the South Coast of the state of Oaxaca, Mexico is presented in this paper. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) methods are applied to a time series conformed by 7 years of wind speed measurements. Six years were used in the formulation of the models and the last year was used to validate and compare the effectiveness of the generated prediction by the techniques mentioned above. Seasonal ARIMA models present a better sensitivity to the adjustment and prediction of the wind speed for this case in particular. Nevertheless, it was shown both developed models can be used to predict in a reasonable way, the monthly electricity production of the wind power stations in La Venta, Oaxaca, Mexico to support the operators of the Electric Utility Control Centre. (author)

  4. Load flow analysis for variable speed offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chen, Zhe; Zhao, Menghua; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2009-01-01

    factors such as the different wind farm configurations, the control of wind turbines and the power losses of pulse width modulation converters are considered. The DC/DC converter model is proposed and integrated into load flow algorithm by modifying the Jacobian matrix. Two iterative methods are proposed...... and integrated into the load flow algorithm: one takes into account the control strategy of converters and the other considers the power losses of converters. In addition, different types of variable speed wind turbine systems with different control methods are investigated. Finally, the method is demonstrated......A serial AC-DC integrated load flow algorithm for variable speed offshore wind farms is proposed. It divides the electrical system of a wind farm into several local networks, and different load flow methods are used for these local networks sequentially. This method is fast, more accurate, and many...

  5. Evaluation of different inertial control methods for variable-speed wind turbines simulated by fatigue, aerodynamic, structures and turbulence (FAST)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xiao; Gao, Wenzhong; Scholbrock, Andrew; Muljadi, Eduard; Gevorgian, Vahan; Wang, Jianhui; Yan, Weihang; Zhang, Huaguang

    2017-10-18

    To mitigate the degraded power system inertia and undesirable primary frequency response caused by large-scale wind power integration, the frequency support capabilities of variable-speed wind turbines is studied in this work. This is made possible by controlled inertial response, which is demonstrated on a research turbine - controls advanced research turbine, 3-bladed (CART3). Two distinct inertial control (IC) methods are analysed in terms of their impacts on the grids and the response of the turbine itself. The released kinetic energy in the IC methods are determined by the frequency measurement or shaped active power reference in the turbine speed-power plane. The wind turbine model is based on the high-fidelity turbine simulator fatigue, aerodynamic, structures and turbulence, which constitutes the aggregated wind power plant model with the simplified power converter model. The IC methods are implemented over the baseline CART3 controller, evaluated in the modified 9-bus and 14-bus testing power grids considering different wind speeds and different wind power penetration levels. The simulation results provide various insights on designing such kinds of ICs. The authors calculate the short-term dynamic equivalent loads and give a discussion about the turbine structural loadings related to the inertial response.

  6. Computer modelling of the UK wind energy resource: UK wind speed data package and user manual

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burch, S F; Ravenscroft, F

    1993-12-31

    A software package has been developed for IBM-PC or true compatibles. It is designed to provide easy access to the results of a programme of work to estimate the UK wind energy resource. Mean wind speed maps and quantitative resource estimates were obtained using the NOABL mesoscale (1 km resolution) numerical model for the prediction of wind flow over complex terrain. NOABL was used in conjunction with digitised terrain data and wind data from surface meteorological stations for a ten year period (1975-1984) to provide digital UK maps of mean wind speed at 10m, 25m and 45m above ground level. Also included in the derivation of these maps was the use of the Engineering Science Data Unit (ESDU) method to model the effect on wind speed of the abrupt change in surface roughness that occurs at the coast. With the wind speed software package, the user is able to obtain a display of the modelled wind speed at 10m, 25m and 45m above ground level for any location in the UK. The required co-ordinates are simply supplied by the user, and the package displays the selected wind speed. This user manual summarises the methodology used in the generation of these UK maps and shows computer generated plots of the 25m wind speeds in 200 x 200 km regions covering the whole UK. The uncertainties inherent in the derivation of these maps are also described, and notes given on their practical usage. The present study indicated that 23% of the UK land area had speeds over 6 m/s, with many hill sites having 10m speeds over 10 m/s. It is concluded that these `first order` resource estimates represent a substantial improvement over the presently available `zero order` estimates. (18 figures, 3 tables, 6 references). (author)

  7. Optimal wind energy penetration in power systems: An approach based on spatial distribution of wind speed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zolfaghari, Saeed; Riahy, Gholam H.; Abedi, Mehrdad; Golshannavaz, Sajjad

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Chronological wind speeds at distinct locations of the wind farm are not the same. • Spatial distribution of wind speed affects wind farm’s output power expectation. • Neglecting wind speed’s spatial doubt leads to mistake in wind energy penetration. • Scenario-based method can be used for effective wind capacity penetration level. - Abstract: Contributing in power system expansions, the present study establishes an efficient scheme for optimal integration of wind energy resources. The proposed approach highly concerns the spatial distribution of wind speed at different points of a wind farm. In mathematical statements, a suitable probability distribution function (PDF) is well-designed for representing such uncertainties. In such conditions, it is likely to have dissimilar output powers for individual and identical wind turbines. Thus, the overall aggregated PDF of a wind farm remarkably influences the critical parameters including the expected power and energy, capacity factor, and the reliability metrics such as loss of load expectation (LOLE) and expected energy not supplied (EENS). Furthermore, the proposed approach is deployed for optimal allocation of wind energy in bulk power systems. Hence, two typical test systems are numerically analyzed to interrogate the performance of the proposed approach. The conducted survey discloses an over/underestimation of harvestable wind energy in the case of overlooking spatial distributions. Thus, inaccurate amounts of wind farm’s capacity factor, output power, energy and reliability indices might be estimated. Meanwhile, the number of wind turbines may be misjudged to be installed. However, the proposed approach yields in a fair judgment regarding the overall performance of the wind farm. Consequently, a reliable penetration level of wind energy to the power system is assured. Extra discussions are provided to deeply assess the promising merits of the founded approach.

  8. Indirect sensorless speed control of a PMSG for wind application

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Diaz, S.A.; Silva, C.; Juliet, J.

    2009-01-01

    the method usually referred in the literature as indirect speed control (ISC). The principle of this method is the regulation of the generator torque as function of rotor speed such that the steady state operation is at the MPPT. This strategy normally requires the knowledge of the shaft speed to determinate...... in the whole wind generator system a sensorless scheme is proposed, thereby avoiding problems of electromagnetic interferences and failures in the position sensor. Usually, in wind drive system, the generator is not operated a very low speeds, therefore problems related to low back-emf for flux estimation...... the reference torque and rotor position for the orientation of the vector torque control of the PMSG. To achieve both, speed and position estimation, the sensorless technique based in back-emf estimation is proposed. Also in this paper, a laboratory set-up is described. The experimental bench is composed...

  9. Exploiting sparsity of interconnections in spatio-temporal wind speed forecasting using Wavelet Transform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tascikaraoglu, Akin; Sanandaji, Borhan M.; Poolla, Kameshwar; Varaiya, Pravin

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a spatio-temporal approach for wind speed forecasting. • The method is based on a combination of Wavelet decomposition and structured-sparse recovery. • Our analyses confirm that low-dimensional structures govern the interactions between stations. • Our method particularly shows improvements for profiles with high ramps. • We examine our approach on real data and illustrate its superiority over a set of benchmark models. - Abstract: Integration of renewable energy resources into the power grid is essential in achieving the envisioned sustainable energy future. Stochasticity and intermittency characteristics of renewable energies, however, present challenges for integrating these resources into the existing grid in a large scale. Reliable renewable energy integration is facilitated by accurate wind forecasts. In this paper, we propose a novel wind speed forecasting method which first utilizes Wavelet Transform (WT) for decomposition of the wind speed data into more stationary components and then uses a spatio-temporal model on each sub-series for incorporating both temporal and spatial information. The proposed spatio-temporal forecasting approach on each sub-series is based on the assumption that there usually exists an intrinsic low-dimensional structure between time series data in a collection of meteorological stations. Our approach is inspired by Compressive Sensing (CS) and structured-sparse recovery algorithms. Based on detailed case studies, we show that the proposed approach based on exploiting the sparsity of correlations between a large set of meteorological stations and decomposing time series for higher-accuracy forecasts considerably improve the short-term forecasts compared to the temporal and spatio-temporal benchmark methods.

  10. High-speed solar wind flow parameters at 1 AU

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feldman, W.C.; Asbridge, J.R.; Bame, S.J.; Gosling, J.T.

    1976-01-01

    To develop a set of constraints for theories of solar wind high-speed streams, a detailed study was made of the fastest streams observed at 1 AU during the time period spanning March 1971 through July 1974. Streams were accepted for study only if (1) the maximum speed exceeded 650 km s -1 ; (2) effects of stream-stream dynamical interaction on the flow parameters could be safely separated from the intrinsic characteristics of the high-speed regions; (3) the full width at half maximum (FWHM) of the stream when mapped back to 20 solar radii by using a constant speed approximation was greater than 45degree in Carrington longitude; and (4) there were no obvious solar-activity-induced contaminating effects. Nineteen streams during this time interval satisfied these criteria. Average parameters at 1 AU for those portions of these streams above V=650 km s -1 are given.Not only is it not presently known why electrons are significantly cooler than the protons within high-speed regions, but also observed particle fluxes and convected energy fluxes for speed greater than 650 km s -1 are substantially larger than those values predicted by any of the existing theories of solar wind high-speed streams. More work is therefore needed in refining present solar wind models to see whether suitable modifications and/or combinations of existing theories based on reasonable coronal conditions can accommodate the above high-speed flow parameters

  11. MEASUREMENT OF WIND SPEED FROM COOLING LAKE THERMAL IMAGERY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garrett, A.; Kurzeja, R.; Villa-Aleman, E.; Tuckfield, C.; Pendergast, M.

    2009-01-01

    The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) collected thermal imagery and ground truth data at two commercial power plant cooling lakes to investigate the applicability of laboratory empirical correlations between surface heat flux and wind speed, and statistics derived from thermal imagery. SRNL demonstrated in a previous paper (1] that a linear relationship exists between the standard deviation of image temperature and surface heat flux. In this paper, SRNL will show that the skewness of the temperature distribution derived from cooling lake thermal images correlates with instantaneous wind speed measured at the same location. SRNL collected thermal imagery, surface meteorology and water temperatures from helicopters and boats at the Comanche Peak and H. B. Robinson nuclear power plant cooling lakes. SRNL found that decreasing skewness correlated with increasing wind speed, as was the case for the laboratory experiments. Simple linear and orthogonal regression models both explained about 50% of the variance in the skewness - wind speed plots. A nonlinear (logistic) regression model produced a better fit to the data, apparently because the thermal convection and resulting skewness are related to wind speed in a highly nonlinear way in nearly calm and in windy conditions

  12. Dynamic behavior of parked wind turbine at extreme wind speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Totsuka, Yoshitaka; Imamura, Hiroshi; Yde, Anders

    2016-01-01

    of standstill and idling is analyzed by time domain simulations using two different coupled aero-hydro-servo-elastic codes. Trend in modern wind turbines is development of bigger, lighter and more flexible rotors where vibration issues may cause aero-elastic instabilities which have a serious impact...

  13. Survey of variable speed operation of wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlson, Ola; Hylander, J.; Thorborg, K. [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Electric Power Engineering

    1996-12-01

    During the last five years the production and operation of variable-speed wind turbines have advanced from a few experimental machines to a serial production of at least 10 MW of installed capacity of variable speed machines per week. The rated power of serial wind turbines is today around 600 kW and for the prototypes up to 3000 kW. Variable speed operation of wind turbines can be obtained with several different types of electrical generating systems, such as synchronous generators with diode rectifiers and thyristor inverters or induction generators with IGBT-converters, for the wide speed range. For the narrow speed range the wound motor induction generator with a rotor cascade or a controlled rotor resistance is preferable. The development of permanent magnetic material and the reduction of costs of the power electronic components have opened a possibility of designing cost-effective wind turbines with a directly driven generator. Pitch control together with variable speed will make it possible to limit the power variation within a few percent, 2 to 5 %, of the rated power. 7 refs, 4 figs, 2 tabs

  14. Dispersion under low wind speed conditions using Gaussian Plume approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rakesh, P.T.; Srinivas, C.V.; Baskaran, R.; Venkatesan, R.; Venkatraman, B.

    2018-01-01

    For radioactive dose computation due to atmospheric releases, dispersion models are essential requirement. For this purpose, Gaussian plume model (GPM) is used in the short range and advanced particle dispersion models are used in all ranges. In dispersion models, other than wind speed the most influential parameter which determines the fate of the pollutant is the turbulence diffusivity. In GPM the diffusivity is represented using empirical approach. Studies show that under low wind speed conditions, the existing diffusivity relationships are not adequate in estimating the diffusion. An important phenomenon that occurs during the low wind speed is the meandering motions. It is found that under meandering motions the extent of plume dispersion is more than the estimated value using conventional GPM and particle transport models. In this work a set of new turbulence parameters for the horizontal diffusion of the plume is suggested and using them in GPM, the plume is simulated and is compared against observation available from Hanford tracer release experiment

  15. Tip Speed Ratio Based Maximum Power Tracking Control of Variable Speed Wind Turbines; A Comprehensive Design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat Karabacak

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The most primitive control method of wind turbines used to generate electric energy from wind is the fixed speed control method. With this method, it is not possible that turbine input power is transferred to grid at maximum rate. For this reason, Maximum Power Tracking (MPT schemes are proposed. In order to implement MPT, the propeller has to rotate at a different speed for every different wind speed. This situation has led MPT based systems to be called Variable Speed Wind Turbine (VSWT systems. In VSWT systems, turbine input power can be transferred to grid at rates close to maximum power. When MPT based control of VSWT systems is the case, two important processes come into prominence. These are instantaneously determination and tracking of MPT point. In this study, using a Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT method based on tip speed ratio, power available in wind is transferred into grid over a back to back converter at maximum rate via a VSWT system with permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG. Besides a physical wind turbine simulator is modelled and simulated. Results show that a time varying MPPT point is tracked with a high performance.

  16. Coronal holes and high-speed wind streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zirker, J.B.

    1977-01-01

    Coronal holes low have been identified as Bartel's M regions, i.e., sources of high-speed wind streams that produce recurrent geomagnetic variations. Throughout the Skylab period the polar caps of the Sun were coronal holes, and at lower latitudes the most persistent and recurrent holes were equatorial extensions of the polar caps. The holes rotated 'rigidly' at the equatorial synodic rate. They formed in regions of unipolar photospheric magnetic field, and their internal magnetic fields diverged rapidly with increasing distance from the sun. The geometry of the magnetic field in the inner corona seems to control both the physical properties of the holes and the global distribution of high-speed wind streams in the heliosphere. The latitude variation of the divergence of the coronal magnetic field lines produces corresponding variations in wind speed.During the years of declining solar activity the global field of the corona approximates a perturbed dipole. The divergence of field lines in each hemisphere produces a high-speed wind near the poles and low-speed wind in a narrow belt that coincides with the magnetic neutral sheet. The analysis of electron density measurements within a polar hole indicates that solar wind is accelerated principally in the region between 2 and 5 R/sub s/ and that mechanical wave pressure (possibly Alfven wave) may be responsible for the accleration of the wind. Phenomenological models for the birth and decay of coronal holes have been proposed. Attempts to explain the birth and rigid rotation of holes through dynamo action have been only partially successful. The 11-year variation of cosmic ray intensities at the earth may result from cyclic variation of open field regions associated with coronal holes

  17. WIND TURBINE OPERATION PARAMETER CHARACTERISTICS AT A GIVEN WIND SPEED

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zdzisław Kamiński

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the results of the CFD simulation of the flow around Vertical Axis Wind Turbine rotor. The examined rotor was designed following patent application no. 402214. The turbine operation is characterised by parameters, such as opening angle of blades, power, torque, rotational velocity at a given wind velocity. Those parameters have an impact on the performance of entire assembly. The distribution of forces acting on the working surfaces in the turbine can change, depending on the angle of rotor rotation. Moreover, the resultant force derived from the force acting on the oncoming and leaving blades should be as high as possible. Accordingly, those parameters were individually simulated over time for each blade in three complete rotations. The attempts to improve the performance of the entire system resulted in a new research trend to improve the performance of working turbine rotor blades.

  18. Wind Speed Preview Measurement and Estimation for Feedforward Control of Wind Turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simley, Eric J.

    Wind turbines typically rely on feedback controllers to maximize power capture in below-rated conditions and regulate rotor speed during above-rated operation. However, measurements of the approaching wind provided by Light Detection and Ranging (lidar) can be used as part of a preview-based, or feedforward, control system in order to improve rotor speed regulation and reduce structural loads. But the effectiveness of preview-based control depends on how accurately lidar can measure the wind that will interact with the turbine. In this thesis, lidar measurement error is determined using a statistical frequency-domain wind field model including wind evolution, or the change in turbulent wind speeds between the time they are measured and when they reach the turbine. Parameters of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) 5-MW reference turbine model are used to determine measurement error for a hub-mounted circularly-scanning lidar scenario, based on commercially-available technology, designed to estimate rotor effective uniform and shear wind speed components. By combining the wind field model, lidar model, and turbine parameters, the optimal lidar scan radius and preview distance that yield the minimum mean square measurement error, as well as the resulting minimum achievable error, are found for a variety of wind conditions. With optimized scan scenarios, it is found that relatively low measurement error can be achieved, but the attainable measurement error largely depends on the wind conditions. In addition, the impact of the induction zone, the region upstream of the turbine where the approaching wind speeds are reduced, as well as turbine yaw error on measurement quality is analyzed. In order to minimize the mean square measurement error, an optimal measurement prefilter is employed, which depends on statistics of the correlation between the preview measurements and the wind that interacts with the turbine. However, because the wind speeds encountered by

  19. A New Fault Diagnosis Algorithm for PMSG Wind Turbine Power Converters under Variable Wind Speed Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingning Qiu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Although Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG wind turbines (WTs mitigate gearbox impacts, they requires high reliability of generators and converters. Statistical analysis shows that the failure rate of direct-drive PMSG wind turbines’ generators and inverters are high. Intelligent fault diagnosis algorithms to detect inverters faults is a premise for the condition monitoring system aimed at improving wind turbines’ reliability and availability. The influences of random wind speed and diversified control strategies lead to challenges for developing intelligent fault diagnosis algorithms for converters. This paper studies open-circuit fault features of wind turbine converters in variable wind speed situations through systematic simulation and experiment. A new fault diagnosis algorithm named Wind Speed Based Normalized Current Trajectory is proposed and used to accurately detect and locate faulted IGBT in the circuit arms. It is compared to direct current monitoring and current vector trajectory pattern approaches. The results show that the proposed method has advantages in the accuracy of fault diagnosis and has superior anti-noise capability in variable wind speed situations. The impact of the control strategy is also identified. Experimental results demonstrate its applicability on practical WT condition monitoring system which is used to improve wind turbine reliability and reduce their maintenance cost.

  20. Implementation of short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L; Joensen, A; Giebel, G [and others

    1999-03-01

    This paper will giver a general overview of the results from a EU JOULE funded project (`Implementing short-term prediction at utilities`, JOR3-CT95-0008). Reference will be given to specialised papers where applicable. The goal of the project was to implement wind farm power output prediction systems in operational environments at a number of utilities in Europe. Two models were developed, one by Risoe and one by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Both prediction models used HIRLAM predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). (au) EFP-94; EU-JOULE. 11 refs.

  1. Model of a synthetic wind speed time series generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Negra, N.B.; Holmstrøm, O.; Bak-Jensen, B.

    2008-01-01

    is described and some statistical issues (seasonal characteristics, autocorrelation functions, average values and distribution functions) are used for verification. The output of the model has been designed as input for sequential Monte Carlo simulation; however, it is expected that it can be used for other...... of the main elements to consider for this purpose is the model of the wind speed that is usually required as input. Wind speed measurements may represent a solution for this problem, but, for techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo simulation, they have to be long enough in order to describe a wide range...

  2. A Short Term Analogue Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shah, Peter Jivan

    1992-01-01

    A short term analogue memory is described. It is based on a well-known sample-hold topology in which leakage currents have been minimized partly by circuit design and partly by layout techniques. Measurements on a test chip implemented in a standard 2.4 micron analogue CMOS process show a droop...

  3. Wind speed and direction shears with associated vertical motion during strong surface winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, M. B.; Camp, D. W.

    1984-01-01

    Strong surface winds recorded at the NASA 150-Meter Ground Winds Tower facility at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, are analyzed to present occurrences representative of wind shear and vertical motion known to be hazardous to the ascent and descent of conventional aircraft and the Space Shuttle. Graphical (percentage frequency distributions) and mathematical (maximum, mean, standard deviation) descriptions of wind speed and direction shears and associated updrafts and downdrafts are included as functions of six vertical layers and one horizontal distance for twenty 5-second intervals of parameters sampled simultaneously at the rate of ten per second during a period of high surface winds.

  4. Ocean Surface Wind Speed of Hurricane Helene Observed by SAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xu, Qing; Cheng, Yongcun; Li, Xiaofeng

    2011-01-01

    Prediction System (NOGAPS) model, C-band geophysical model functions (GMFs) which describe the normalized radar cross section (NRCS) dependence on the wind speed and the geometry of radar observations (i.e., incidence angle and azimuth angle with respect to wind direction) such as CMOD5 and newly developed......The hurricanes can be detected by many remote sensors, but synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can yield high-resolution (sub-kilometer) and low-level wind information that cannot be seen below the cloud by other sensors. In this paper, an assessment of SAR capability of monitoring high...

  5. Virtual inertia for variable speed wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zeni, Lorenzo; Rudolph, Andreas Jakob; Münster-Swendsen, Janus

    2013-01-01

    electronic converter and on its impact on the primary frequency response of a power system. An additional control for the power electronics is implemented to give VSWTs a virtual inertia, referring to the kinetic energy stored in the rotating masses, which can be released initially to support the system......’s inertia. A simple Matlab/Simulink model and control of a VSWT and of a generic power system are developed to analyse the primary frequency response following different generation losses in a system comprising VSWTs provided with virtual inertia. The possibility of substituting a 50% share of conventional...... power with wind is also assessed and investigated. The intrinsic problems related to the implementation of virtual inertia are illustrated, addressing their origin in the action of pitch and power control. A solution is proposed, which aims at obtaining the same response as for the system with only...

  6. Reliability of Wind Speed Data from Satellite Altimeter to Support Wind Turbine Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uti, M. N.; Din, A. H. M.; Omar, A. H.

    2017-10-01

    Satellite altimeter has proven itself to be one of the important tool to provide good quality information in oceanographic study. Nowadays, most countries in the world have begun in implementation the wind energy as one of their renewable energy for electric power generation. Many wind speed studies conducted in Malaysia using conventional method and scientific technique such as anemometer and volunteer observing ships (VOS) in order to obtain the wind speed data to support the development of renewable energy. However, there are some limitations regarding to this conventional method such as less coverage for both spatial and temporal and less continuity in data sharing by VOS members. Thus, the aim of this research is to determine the reliability of wind speed data by using multi-mission satellite altimeter to support wind energy potential in Malaysia seas. Therefore, the wind speed data are derived from nine types of satellite altimeter starting from year 1993 until 2016. Then, to validate the reliability of wind speed data from satellite altimeter, a comparison of wind speed data form ground-truth buoy that located at Sabah and Sarawak is conducted. The validation is carried out in terms of the correlation, the root mean square error (RMSE) calculation and satellite track analysis. As a result, both techniques showing a good correlation with value positive 0.7976 and 0.6148 for point located at Sabah and Sarawak Sea, respectively. It can be concluded that a step towards the reliability of wind speed data by using multi-mission satellite altimeter can be achieved to support renewable energy.

  7. The large scale and long term evolution of the solar wind speed distribution and high speed streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Intriligator, D.S.

    1977-01-01

    The spatial and temporal evolution of the solar wind speed distribution and of high speed streams in the solar wind are examined. Comparisons of the solar wind streaming speeds measured at Earth, Pioneer 11, and Pioneer 10 indicate that between 1 AU and 6.4 AU the solar wind speed distributions are narrower (i.e. the 95% value minus the 5% value of the solar wind streaming speed is less) at extended heliocentric distances. These observations are consistent with one exchange of momentum in the solar wind between high speed streams and low speed streams as they propagate outward from the Sun. Analyses of solar wind observations at 1 AU from mid 1964 through 1973 confirm the earlier results reported by Intriligator (1974) that there are statistically significant variations in the solar wind in 1968 and 1969, years of solar maximum. High speed stream parameters show that the number of high speed streams in the solar wind in 1968 and 1969 is considerably more than the predicted yearly average, and in 1965 and 1972 less. Histograms of solar wind speed from 1964 through 1973 indicate that in 1968 there was the highest percentage of elevated solar wind speeds and in 1965 and 1972 the lowest. Studies by others also confirm these results although the respective authors did not indicate this fact. The duration of the streams and the histograms for 1973 imply a shifting in the primary stream source. (Auth.)

  8. Reactive power control methods for improved reliability of wind power inverters under wind speed variations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Ke; Liserre, Marco; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2012-01-01

    method to relieve the thermal cycling of power switching devices under severe wind speed variations, by circulating reactive power among the parallel power converters in a WTS or among the WTS's in a wind park. The amount of reactive power is adjusted to limit the junction temperature fluctuation...

  9. On the wind speed reduction in the center of large clusters of wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frandsen, Sten Tronæs

    1992-01-01

    of the wind speed assuming the wind turbines effectively act as roughness elements. The model makes use of similarities to so-called canopy flows, where the surface drag and the drag on individual obstacles are added to form the total drag. Results are compared with existing models for reduction of efficiency...

  10. Wind tunnel experiments to prove a hydraulic passive torque control concept for variable speed wind turbines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diepeveen, N.F.B.; Jarquin-Laguna, A.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper the results are presented of experiments to prove an innovative concept for passive torque control of variable speed wind turbines using fluid power technology. It is demonstrated that by correctly configuring the hydraulic drive train, the wind turbine rotor operates at or near

  11. Variations in long term wind speed during different decades in ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A study has been carried out by comparing the extreme wind speeds estimated based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for 100 years return period using Fischer Tippet-1 (commonly known as Gumbel)and Weibull distributions for three locations (off Goa,Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam)in the north Indian Ocean.

  12. LQG Controller Design for Pitch Regulated Variable Speed Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Imran, Raja Muhammed; Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar; Chen, Zhe

    2014-01-01

    Variable speed wind turbine is a complex and nonlinear system, a sophisticated control is required to meet the challenges posed by these systems. This paper is presenting a pitch regulation strategy based on LQG (Linear Quadratic Gaussian) to regulate turbine at its rated power and to reject...

  13. Increased Surface Wind Speeds Follow Diminishing Arctic Sea Ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mioduszewski, J.; Vavrus, S. J.; Wang, M.; Holland, M. M.; Landrum, L.

    2017-12-01

    Projections of Arctic sea ice through the end of the 21st century indicate the likelihood of a strong reduction in ice area and thickness in all seasons, leading to a substantial thermodynamic influence on the overlying atmosphere. This is likely to have an effect on winds over the Arctic Basin, due to changes in atmospheric stability and/or baroclinicity. Prior research on future Arctic wind changes is limited and has focused mainly on the practical impacts on wave heights in certain seasons. Here we attempt to identify patterns and likely mechanisms responsible for surface wind changes in all seasons across the Arctic, particularly those associated with sea ice loss in the marginal ice zone. Sea level pressure, near-surface (10 m) and upper-air (850 hPa) wind speeds, and lower-level dynamic and thermodynamic variables from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Project (CESM-LE) were analyzed for the periods 1971-2000 and 2071-2100 to facilitate comparison between a present-day and future climate. Mean near-surface wind speeds over the Arctic Ocean are projected to increase by late century in all seasons but especially during autumn and winter, when they strengthen by up to 50% locally. The most extreme wind speeds in the 90th percentile change even more, increasing in frequency by over 100%. The strengthened winds are closely linked to decreasing lower-tropospheric stability resulting from the loss of sea ice cover and consequent surface warming (locally over 20 ºC warmer in autumn and winter). A muted pattern of these future changes is simulated in CESM-LE historical runs from 1920-2005. The enhanced winds near the surface are mostly collocated with weaker winds above the boundary layer during autumn and winter, implying more vigorous vertical mixing and a drawdown of high-momentum air.The implications of stronger future winds include increased coastal hazards and the potential for a positive feedback with sea ice by generating higher winds and

  14. Empirical investigation on using wind speed volatility to estimate the operation probability and power output of wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Heping; Shi, Jing; Qu, Xiuli

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Ten-minute wind speed and power generation data of an offshore wind turbine are used. ► An ARMA–GARCH-M model is built to simultaneously forecast wind speed mean and volatility. ► The operation probability and expected power output of the wind turbine are predicted. ► The integrated approach produces more accurate wind power forecasting than other conventional methods. - Abstract: In this paper, we introduce a quantitative methodology that performs the interval estimation of wind speed, calculates the operation probability of wind turbine, and forecasts the wind power output. The technological advantage of this methodology stems from the empowered capability of mean and volatility forecasting of wind speed. Based on the real wind speed and corresponding wind power output data from an offshore wind turbine, this methodology is applied to build an ARMA–GARCH-M model for wind speed forecasting, and then to compute the operation probability and the expected power output of the wind turbine. The results show that the developed methodology is effective, the obtained interval estimation of wind speed is reliable, and the forecasted operation probability and expected wind power output of the wind turbine are accurate

  15. Gain-scheduled Linear Quadratic Control of Wind Turbines Operating at High Wind Speed

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergaard, Kasper Zinck; Stoustrup, Jakob; Brath, Per

    2007-01-01

    This paper addresses state estimation and linear quadratic (LQ) control of variable speed variable pitch wind turbines. On the basis of a nonlinear model of a wind turbine, a set of operating conditions is identified and a LQ controller is designed for each operating point. The controller gains...... are then interpolated linearly to get a control law for the entire operating envelope. A nonlinear state estimator is designed as a combination of two unscented Kalman filters and a linear disturbance estimator. The gain-scheduling variable (wind speed) is then calculated from the output of these state estimators...

  16. Low cost digital wind speed meter with wind direction using PIC16F877A

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sujod, M.Z.; Ismail, M.M. [Malaysia Pahang Univ., Pahang (Malaysia). Faculty of Electrical and Electronics Engineering

    2008-07-01

    Weather measurement tools are necessary to determine the actual weather and forecasting. Wind is one of the weather elements that can be measured using an anemometer which is a device for measuring the velocity or the pressure of the wind. It is one of the instruments used in weather stations. This paper described a circuit design for speed and direction of the meter and created a suitable programming to measure and display the wind speed meter and direction. A microcontroller (PIC16F877A) was employed as the central processing unit for digital wind speed and direction meter. The paper presented and discussed the hardware and software implementation as well as the calibration and results. The paper also discussed cost estimation and future recommendations. It was concluded that the hardware and software implementation were carefully selected after considering the development cost where the cost was much lower than the market prices. 4 refs., 8 figs.

  17. Wind turbine blades for harnessing energy from Malaysian low speed wind - manufacturing technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abas Abd Wahab; Azmin Shakrine

    2000-01-01

    Blades for wind turbine to harness energy in the Malaysia low speed winds have been designed. During wind tunnel testing, wind turbine model using this type of blades has cut in speed of 1.5 m/s and turned at 450 rpm at 4 m/s wind. The blades, due to their critical dimensions of 1.2 m length, 5 cm thickness, tapered and 15 degree twist, were difficult to produce especially in large number. Several production methods have been studied but for economical mass production, fibreglass blades using CNC cutting mould were chosen. The blade and mould designs and the manufacturing processes are briefly outlined in this paper. (Author)

  18. Flicker Mitigation by Speed Control of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator Variable-Speed Wind Turbines

    OpenAIRE

    Weihao Hu; Yunqian Zhang; Zhe Chen; Yanting Hu

    2013-01-01

    Grid-connected wind turbines are fluctuating power sources that may produce flicker during continuous operation. This paper presents a simulation model of a MW-level variable speed wind turbine with a full-scale back-to-back power converter and permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) developed in the simulation tool of PSCAD/EMTDC. Flicker emission of this system is investigated. The 3p (three times per revolution) power oscillation due to wind shear and tower shadow effects is the sign...

  19. Using wind speed from a blade-mounted flow sensor for power and load assessment on modern wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Mads M.; Larsen, Torben J.; Madsen, Helge Aa

    2017-01-01

    In this paper an alternative method to evaluate power performance and loads on wind turbines using a blade-mounted flow sensor is investigated. The hypothesis is that the wind speed measured at the blades has a high correlation with the power and loads such that a power or load assessment can...... be performed from a few hours or days of measurements. In the present study a blade-mounted five-hole pitot tube is used as the flow sensor as an alternative to the conventional approach, where the reference wind speed is either measured at a nearby met mast or on the nacelle using lidar technology or cup...... anemometers. From the flow sensor measurements, an accurate estimate of the wind speed at the rotor plane can be obtained. This wind speed is disturbed by the presence of the wind turbine, and it is therefore different from the free-flow wind speed. However, the recorded wind speed has a high correlation...

  20. Short-term memory for scenes with affective content

    OpenAIRE

    Maljkovic, Vera; Martini, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    The emotional content of visual images can be parameterized along two dimensions: valence (pleasantness) and arousal (intensity of emotion). In this study we ask how these distinct emotional dimensions affect the short-term memory of human observers viewing a rapid stream of images and trying to remember their content. We show that valence and arousal modulate short-term memory as independent factors. Arousal influences dramatically the average speed of data accumulation in memory: Higher aro...

  1. Grid impact of variable-speed wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsson, Aa [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Dept. of Electric Power Engineering, Goeteborg (Sweden); Soerensen, P [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Santjer, F [German Wind Energy Inst., DEWI, Wilhelmshaven (Germany)

    1999-03-01

    In this paper the power quality of variable-speed wind turbines equipped with forced-commutated inverters is investigated. Measurements have been taken on the same type of variable-speed wind turbines in Germany and Sweden. The measurements have been analysed according to existing IEC standards. Special attention has been paid to the aggregation of several wind turbines on flicker emission and harmonics. The aggregation has been compared with the summation laws used in the draft IEC 61400-21 `Power Quality Requirements for Grid Connected wind turbines`. The methods for calculating and summing flicker proposed by IEC Standards are reliable. Harmonics and inter-harmonics are treated in IEC 61000-4-7 and IEC 61000-3-6. The methods for summing harmonics and inter-harmonics in IEC 61000-3-6 are applicable to wind turbines. In order to obtain a correct magnitude of the frequency components, the use of a well-defined window width, according to IEC 61000-4-7 Amendment 1 is of a great importance. (au)

  2. Fuzzy logic based variable speed wind generation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simoes, M.G. [Sao Paulo Univ., SP (Brazil). Escola Politecnica. PMC - Mecatronica; Bose, B.K. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Spiegel, Ronal J. [Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States). Air and Energy Engineering Research Lab.

    1996-12-31

    This work demonstrates the successful application of fuzzy logic to enhance the performance and control of a variable speed wind generation system. A maximum power point tracker control is performed with three fuzzy controllers, without wind velocity measurement, and robust to wind vortex and turbine torque ripple. A squirrel cage induction generator feeds the power to a double-sided PWM converter system which pumps the power to a utility grid or supplies to an autonomous system. The fuzzy logic controller FLC-1 searches on-line the generator speed so that the aerodynamic efficiency of the wind turbine is optimized. A second fuzzy controller FLC-2 programs the machine flux by on-line search so as to optimize the machine-converter system wind vortex. Detailed analysis and simulation studies were performed for development of the control strategy and fuzzy algorithms, and a DSP TMS320C30 based hardware with C control software was built for the performance evaluation of a laboratory experimental set-up. The theoretical development was fully validated and the system is ready to be reproduced in a higher power installation. (author) 7 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Wind generator with electronic variable-speed drives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    David, A.; Buchheit, N.; Jakobsen, H.

    1996-12-31

    Variable speed drives have been inserted between the network and the generator on certain recent wind power facilities. They have the following advantages: the drive allows the wind generator to operate at low speed with a significant reduction in acoustic noise, an important point if the facilities are sited near populated areas; the drive optimizes energy transfer, providing a gain of 4 to 10 %; the drive can possibly replace certain mechanical parts (the starting system and it in some cases, the reduction gear); the drive not only provides better transient management in relation to the network for less mechanical stress on the wind generator, it is also able to control reactive power. One commercial drive design sold by several manufacturers has already been installed on several wind generators with outputs of between 150 and 600 kw. In addition, such a solution is extremely well suited to mixed renewable energy systems. This design uses two inverse rectifier type converters and can therefore exchange energy in both directions. The equivalent drive with a single IGBT converter on the motor side and a diode converter on the network side is the solution most widely adopted throughout industry (with more than 50, 000 units installed in France per year). It still remains to be seen whether such a solution could be profitable in wind generator application (since the cost of the drive is quite high). This technical analysis is more destined for the converter-machine assembly specialists and is presented in this document, paying particular attention as it does to the modelling of the `wind energy - generator - drive - network` assembly, the associated drive command and control strategies and the simulations obtained during various transients. A 7.5 kW test bed has been installed in the Laboratoire d`Electronique de Puissance de Clamart, enabling tests to be carried out which emulate the operation of a wind generator.

  4. Performance Investigation of A Mix Wind Turbine Using A Clutch Mechanism At Low Wind Speed Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamanun, M. J.; Misaran, M. S.; Rahman, M.; Muzammil, W. K.

    2017-07-01

    Wind energy is one of the methods that generates energy from sustainable resources. This technology has gained prominence in this era because it produces no harmful product to the society. There is two fundamental type of wind turbine are generally used this day which is Horizontal axis wind turbine (HAWT) and Vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT). The VAWT technology is more preferable compare to HAWT because it gives better efficiency and cost effectiveness as a whole. However, VAWT is known to have distinct disadvantage compared to HAWT; self-start ability and efficiency at low wind speed condition. Different solution has been proposed to solve these issues which includes custom design blades, variable angle of attack mechanism and mix wind turbine. A new type of clutch device was successfully developed in UMS to be used in a mix Savonius-Darrieus wind turbine configuration. The clutch system which barely audible when in operation compared to a ratchet clutch system interconnects the Savonius and Darrieus rotor; allowing the turbine to self-start at low wind speed condition as opposed to a standalone Darrieus turbine. The Savonius height were varied at three different size in order to understand the effect of the Savonius rotor to the mix wind turbine performance. The experimental result shows that the fabricated Savonius rotor show that the height of the Savonius rotor affecting the RPM for the turbine. The swept area (SA), aspect ratio (AR) and tip speed ratio (TSR) also calculated in this paper. The highest RPM recorded in this study is 90 RPM for Savonius rotor 0.22-meter height at 2.75 m/s. The Savonius rotor 0.22-meter also give the highest TSR for each range of speed from 0.75 m/s, 1.75 m/s and 2.75 m/s where it gives 1.03 TSR, 0.76 TSR, and 0.55 TSR.

  5. The Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP). A Public/Private Partnership for Improving Short Term Wind Energy Forecasts and Quantifying the Benefits of Utility Operations -- the Northern Study Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Cathy [WindLogics, St. Paul, MN (United States)

    2014-04-30

    This report contains the results from research aimed at improving short-range (0-6 hour) hub-height wind forecasts in the NOAA weather forecast models through additional data assimilation and model physics improvements for use in wind energy forecasting. Additional meteorological observing platforms including wind profilers, sodars, and surface stations were deployed for this study by NOAA and DOE, and additional meteorological data at or near wind turbine hub height were provided by South Dakota State University and WindLogics/NextEra Energy Resources over a large geographical area in the U.S. Northern Plains for assimilation into NOAA research weather forecast models. The resulting improvements in wind energy forecasts based on the research weather forecast models (with the additional data assimilation and model physics improvements) were examined in many different ways and compared with wind energy forecasts based on the current operational weather forecast models to quantify the forecast improvements important to power grid system operators and wind plant owners/operators participating in energy markets. Two operational weather forecast models (OP_RUC, OP_RAP) and two research weather forecast models (ESRL_RAP, HRRR) were used as the base wind forecasts for generating several different wind power forecasts for the NextEra Energy wind plants in the study area. Power forecasts were generated from the wind forecasts in a variety of ways, from very simple to quite sophisticated, as they might be used by a wide range of both general users and commercial wind energy forecast vendors. The error characteristics of each of these types of forecasts were examined and quantified using bulk error statistics for both the local wind plant and the system aggregate forecasts. The wind power forecast accuracy was also evaluated separately for high-impact wind energy ramp events. The overall bulk error statistics calculated over the first six hours of the forecasts at both the

  6. Assessing noise from wind farm developments in Ireland: A consideration of critical wind speeds and turbine choice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    King, E.A.; Pilla, F.; Mahon, J.

    2012-01-01

    Wind farms are becoming increasingly popular in Ireland in an effort to increase the production of green energy within the state. As with any infrastructural development, wind farms must consider potential environmental impacts prior to construction. One particular issue that must be examined is the emission of noise from the development. In Ireland wind farm developments must adhere to planning conditions that usually outline permissible noise levels for both the construction and operational phases of the development. The critical wind speed is often cited as the wind speed at which these limits apply. This paper examines how the critical wind speed is determined and investigates its relationship with background noise levels and turbine choice. The study consisted of ten one-week monitoring periods during which meteorological conditions and background noise levels were simultaneously recorded. It was found that the critical wind speed is non-transferable, i.e. it depends on both the turbine choice and background noise environment and is specific to that particular turbine/site combination. Furthermore the critical wind speed during the night-time is often different to the overall critical wind speed suggesting that future noise studies should consider a range of critical wind speeds, particularly for night-time noise assessments. - Highlights: ► This paper considers the use of the critical wind speed when assessing noise impacts from wind farms. ► It was found that the critical wind speed could vary depending on the time of the day. ► The critical wind speed was found to be a non-transferable value. ► Noise assessments for wind farms should be developed over a range of critical wind speeds.

  7. A Comparison Study between Two MPPT Control Methods for a Large Variable-Speed Wind Turbine under Different Wind Speed Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongran Song

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Variable speed wind turbines (VSWTs usually adopt a maximum power point tracking (MPPT method to optimize energy capture performance. Nevertheless, obtained performance offered by different MPPT methods may be affected by the impact of wind turbine (WT’s inertia and wind speed characteristics and it needs to be clarified. In this paper, the tip speed ratio (TSR and optimal torque (OT methods are investigated in terms of their performance under different wind speed characteristics on a 1.5 MW wind turbine model. To this end, the TSR control method based on an effective wind speed estimator and the OT control method are firstly presented. Then, their performance is investigated and compared through simulation test results under different wind speeds using Bladed software. Comparison results show that the TSR control method can capture slightly more wind energy at the cost of high component loads than the other one under all wind conditions. Furthermore, it is found that both control methods present similar trends of power reduction that is relevant to mean wind speed and turbulence intensity. From the obtained results, we demonstrate that, to further improve MPPT capability of large VSWTs, other advanced control methods using wind speed prediction information need to be addressed.

  8. AC-DC integrated load flow calculation for variable speed offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Menghua; Chen, Zhe; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2005-01-01

    This paper proposes a sequential AC-DC integrated load flow algorithm for variable speed offshore wind farms. In this algorithm, the variable frequency and the control strategy of variable speed wind turbine systems are considered. In addition, the losses of wind turbine systems and the losses...... of converters are also integrated into the load flow algorithm. As a general algorithm, it can be applied to different types of wind farm configurations, and the load flow is related to the wind speed....

  9. A new method for wind speed forecasting based on copula theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuankun; Ma, Huiqun; Wang, Dong; Wang, Guizuo; Wu, Jichun; Bian, Jinyu; Liu, Jiufu

    2018-01-01

    How to determine representative wind speed is crucial in wind resource assessment. Accurate wind resource assessments are important to wind farms development. Linear regressions are usually used to obtain the representative wind speed. However, terrain flexibility of wind farm and long distance between wind speed sites often lead to low correlation. In this study, copula method is used to determine the representative year's wind speed in wind farm by interpreting the interaction of the local wind farm and the meteorological station. The result shows that the method proposed here can not only determine the relationship between the local anemometric tower and nearby meteorological station through Kendall's tau, but also determine the joint distribution without assuming the variables to be independent. Moreover, the representative wind data can be obtained by the conditional distribution much more reasonably. We hope this study could provide scientific reference for accurate wind resource assessments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Applying micro scales of horizontal axis wind turbines for operation in low wind speed regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pourrajabian, Abolfazl; Ebrahimi, Reza; Mirzaei, Masoud

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Three micro-turbines with output power less than 1 kW were designed for operation in low wind speed regions. • In addition to the output power, starting time was considered as a key parameter during the design. • The effects of generator resistive torque and number of blades on the performance of the turbines were investigated. - Abstract: Utilizing the micro scales of wind turbines could noticeably supply the demand for the electricity in low wind speed regions. Aerodynamic design and optimization of the blade, as a main part of a wind turbine, were addressed in the study. Three micro scales of horizontal axis wind turbines with output power of 0.5, 0.75 and 1 kW were considered and the geometric optimization of the blades in terms of the two involved parameters, chord and twist, was undertaken. In order to improve the performance of the turbines at low wind speeds, starting time was included in an objective function in addition to the output power – the main and desirable goal of the wind turbine blade design. A purpose-built genetic algorithm was employed to maximize both the output power and the starting performance which were calculated by the blade-element momentum theory. The results emphasize that the larger values of the chord and twist at the root part of the blades are indispensable for the better performance when the wind speed is low. However, the noticeable value of the generator resistive torque could largely delay the starting of the micro-turbines especially for the considered smaller size, 0.5 kW, where the starting aerodynamic torque could not overcome the generator resistive torque. For that size, an increase in the number of blades improved both the starting performance and also output power

  11. Role of the Coronal Alfvén Speed in Modulating the Solar-wind Helium Abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.-M.

    2016-12-01

    The helium abundance He/H in the solar wind is relatively constant at ˜0.04 in high-speed streams, but varies in phase with the sunspot number in slow wind, from ˜0.01 at solar minimum to ˜0.04 at maximum. Suggested mechanisms for helium fractionation have included frictional coupling to protons and resonant interactions with high-frequency Alfvénic fluctuations. We compare He/H measurements during 1995-2015 with coronal parameters derived from source-surface extrapolations of photospheric field maps. We find that the near-Earth helium abundance is an increasing function of the magnetic field strength and Alfvén speed v A in the outer corona, while being only weakly correlated with the proton flux density. Throughout the solar cycle, fast wind is associated with short-term increases in v A near the source surface; resonance with Alfvén waves, with v A and the relative speed of α-particles and protons decreasing with increasing heliocentric distance, may then lead to enhanced He/H at 1 au. The modulation of helium in slow wind reflects the tendency for the associated coronal Alfvén speeds to rise steeply from sunspot minimum, when this wind is concentrated around the source-surface neutral line, to sunspot maximum, when the source-surface field attains its peak strengths. The helium abundance near the source surface may represent a balance between collisional decoupling from protons and Alfvén wave acceleration.

  12. Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kavasseri, Rajesh G.; Seetharaman, Krithika

    2009-01-01

    With the integration of wind energy into electricity grids, it is becoming increasingly important to obtain accurate wind speed/power forecasts. Accurate wind speed forecasts are necessary to schedule dispatchable generation and tariffs in the day-ahead electricity market. This paper examines the use of fractional-ARIMA or f-ARIMA models to model, and forecast wind speeds on the day-ahead (24 h) and two-day-ahead (48 h) horizons. The models are applied to wind speed records obtained from four potential wind generation sites in North Dakota. The forecasted wind speeds are used in conjunction with the power curve of an operational (NEG MICON, 750 kW) turbine to obtain corresponding forecasts of wind power production. The forecast errors in wind speed/power are analyzed and compared with the persistence model. Results indicate that significant improvements in forecasting accuracy are obtained with the proposed models compared to the persistence method. (author)

  13. Partial analysis of wind power limit for large disturbance using fixed speed wind turbine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santos Fuentefria, Ariel; Cairo Rodriguez, Daniel; Boza Valerino, Juan Gualberto

    2014-01-01

    The amount of wind power that allow an electric network without losing his stability as known as wind power limit. The wind power limit fundamentally depends on the wind turbine technology and the weakness level of the system. To know the system behaviors in dynamic performance having into account the worst disturbance is a very important matter, a short circuit in one of the most power transference line or the loss of a large generation unit was a large disturbance that can affect system stability. The wind power limit may change with the nature of the disturbance. To know the wind power limit considering this conditions allow use the wind at maximum level. In the present paper the behavior of fixed speed wind turbine for different fault types is analyzed, at those conditions, the wind power is increasing until the system become voltage unstable. For the analysis the IEEE 14 Bus Test Case is used. The Power System Analysis Toolbox (PSAT) package is used for the simulation. (author)

  14. Wind speed reductions by large-scale wind turbine deployments lower turbine efficiencies and set low wind power potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Lee; Kleidon, Axel

    2017-04-01

    Wind turbines generate electricity by removing kinetic energy from the atmosphere. Large numbers of wind turbines are likely to reduce wind speeds, which lowers estimates of electricity generation from what would be presumed from unaffected conditions. Here, we test how well wind power potentials that account for this effect can be estimated without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. We first use simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that explicitly simulates the effects of wind turbines to derive wind power limits (GCM estimate), and compare them to a simple approach derived from the climatological conditions without turbines [vertical kinetic energy (VKE) estimate]. On land, we find strong agreement between the VKE and GCM estimates with respect to electricity generation rates (0.32 and 0.37 We m-2) and wind speed reductions by 42 and 44%. Over ocean, the GCM estimate is about twice the VKE estimate (0.59 and 0.29 We m-2) and yet with comparable wind speed reductions (50 and 42%). We then show that this bias can be corrected by modifying the downward momentum flux to the surface. Thus, large-scale limits to wind power can be derived from climatological conditions without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. Consistent with the GCM simulations, the approach estimates that only comparatively few land areas are suitable to generate more than 1 We m-2 of electricity and that larger deployment scales are likely to reduce the expected electricity generation rate of each turbine. We conclude that these atmospheric effects are relevant for planning the future expansion of wind power.

  15. An innovative medium speed wind turbine rotor blade design for low wind regime (electrical power generation)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abas Abd Wahab; Chong Wen Tong

    2001-01-01

    This paper describes the preliminary study of a small-scale wind turbine rotor blade (a low wind speed region turbine). A new wind turbine rotor blade (AE2 blade) for stand alone system has been conceptualized, designed, constructed and tested. The system is a reduced size prototype (half-scaled) to develop an efficient (adapted to Malaysian wind conditions)and cost effective wind energy conversion system (WECS) with local design and production technique. The blades were constructed from aluminium sheet with metal blending technique. The layout and design of rotor blade, its innovative features and test results are presented. Results from indoor test showed that the advantages of AE2 blade in low speed, with the potential of further improvements. The best rotor efficiency, C P attained with simple AE2 blades rotor (number of blade = 3) was 37.3% (Betz efficiency = 63%) at tip speed ratio (TSR) = 3.6. From the fabrication works and indoor testing, the AE2 blade rotor has demonstrated its structural integrity (ease of assembly and transportation), simplicity, acceptable performance and low noise level. (Author)

  16. Relationship of oceanic whitecap coverage to wind speed and wind history

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Callaghan, A.; Leeuw, G. de; Cohen, L.; O'Dowd, C.D.

    2008-01-01

    Sea surface images obtained during the 2006 Marine Aerosol Production (MAP) campaign in the North East Atlantic were analysed for values of percentage whitecap coverage (W). Values of W are presented for wind speeds up to circa 23 m s-1. The W data were divided into two overlapping groups and a

  17. A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    Accurate wind speed simulation is an essential prerequisite to analyze the power systems with wind power. A wind speed model considering meteorological conditions and seasonal variations is proposed in this paper. Firstly, using the path analysis method, the influence weights of meteorological...... systems with wind power. The assessment results of the modified IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 demonstrated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model....

  18. A compound structure of ELM based on feature selection and parameter optimization using hybrid backtracking search algorithm for wind speed forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Chu; Zhou, Jianzhong; Li, Chaoshun; Fu, Wenlong; Peng, Tian

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel hybrid approach is proposed for wind speed forecasting. • The variational mode decomposition (VMD) is optimized to decompose the original wind speed series. • The input matrix and parameters of ELM are optimized simultaneously by using a hybrid BSA. • Results show that OVMD-HBSA-ELM achieves better performance in terms of prediction accuracy. - Abstract: Reliable wind speed forecasting is essential for wind power integration in wind power generation system. The purpose of paper is to develop a novel hybrid model for short-term wind speed forecasting and demonstrates its efficiency. In the proposed model, a compound structure of extreme learning machine (ELM) based on feature selection and parameter optimization using hybrid backtracking search algorithm (HBSA) is employed as the predictor. The real-valued BSA (RBSA) is exploited to search for the optimal combination of weights and bias of ELM while the binary-valued BSA (BBSA) is exploited as a feature selection method applying on the candidate inputs predefined by partial autocorrelation function (PACF) values to reconstruct the input-matrix. Due to the volatility and randomness of wind speed signal, an optimized variational mode decomposition (OVMD) is employed to eliminate the redundant noises. The parameters of the proposed OVMD are determined according to the center frequencies of the decomposed modes and the residual evaluation index (REI). The wind speed signal is decomposed into a few modes via OVMD. The aggregation of the forecasting results of these modes constructs the final forecasting result of the proposed model. The proposed hybrid model has been applied on the mean half-hour wind speed observation data from two wind farms in Inner Mongolia, China and 10-min wind speed data from the Sotavento Galicia wind farm are studied as an additional case. Parallel experiments have been designed to compare with the proposed model. Results obtained from this study indicate that the

  19. ACCUWIND - Accurate wind speed measurements in wind energy - Summary report[Cup and sonic anemometers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friis Pedersen, T.; Dahlberg, J.Aa.; Cuerva, A.; Mouzakis, F.; Busche, P.; Eecen, P.; Sanz-Andres, A.; Franchini, S.; Markkilde Petersen, S.

    2006-07-15

    The cup anemometer is at present the standard instrument used for mean wind speed measurement in wind energy. It is being applied in high numbers around the world for wind energy assessments. It is also applied exclusively for accredited power performance measurements for certification and verification purposes, and for purposes of optimisation in research and development. The revised IEC standard on power performance measurements has now included requirements for classification of cup anemometers. The basis for setting up such requirements of cup anemometers is two EU projects SITEPARIDEN and CLASSCUP from which the proposed classification method for cup anemometers was developed for the IEC standard. While cup anemometers at present are the standard anemometer being used for average wind speed measurements, sonic anemometers have been developed significantly over the last years, and prices have come down. The application of sonic anemometers may increase in wind energy if they prove to have comparable or better operational characteristics compared to cup anemometers, and if similar requirements to sonic anemometers are established as for cup anemometers. Sonic anemometers have historically been used by meteorologists for turbulence measurements, but have also found a role on wind turbine nacelles for wind speed and yaw control purposes. The report on cup and sonic anemometry deals with establishment of robustness in assessment and classification by focus on methods and procedures for analysis of characteristics of cup and sonic anemometers. The methods and procedures provide a platform, hopefully for use in meeting the requirements of the IEC standard on power performance measurements, as well as for development of improved instruments. (au)

  20. Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Tim; LeBlanc, Troy; Ulman, Brian; McDonald, Aaron; Gramm, Paul; Chang, Li-Min; Keerthi, Suman; Kivlovitz, Dov; Hadlock, Jason

    2011-01-01

    Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer (OSTPV) is a computer program for electronic display of mission plans and timelines, both aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and in ISS ground control stations located in several countries. OSTPV was specifically designed both (1) for use within the limited ISS computing environment and (2) to be compatible with computers used in ground control stations. OSTPV supplants a prior system in which, aboard the ISS, timelines were printed on paper and incorporated into files that also contained other paper documents. Hence, the introduction of OSTPV has both reduced the consumption of resources and saved time in updating plans and timelines. OSTPV accepts, as input, the mission timeline output of a legacy, print-oriented, UNIX-based program called "Consolidated Planning System" and converts the timeline information for display in an interactive, dynamic, Windows Web-based graphical user interface that is used by both the ISS crew and ground control teams in real time. OSTPV enables the ISS crew to electronically indicate execution of timeline steps, launch electronic procedures, and efficiently report to ground control teams on the statuses of ISS activities, all by use of laptop computers aboard the ISS.

  1. Solar wind structure suggested by bimodal correlations of solar wind speed and density between the spacecraft SOHO and Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogilvie, K. W.; Coplan, M. A.; Roberts, D. A.; Ipavich, F.

    2007-08-01

    We calculate the cross-spacecraft maximum lagged-cross-correlation coefficients for 2-hour intervals of solar wind speed and density measurements made by the plasma instruments on the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) and Wind spacecraft over the period from 1996, the minimum of solar cycle 23, through the end of 2005. During this period, SOHO was located at L1, about 200 R E upstream from the Earth, while Wind spent most of the time in the interplanetary medium at distances of more than 100 R E from the Earth. Yearly histograms of the maximum, time-lagged correlation coefficients for both the speed and density are bimodal in shape, suggesting the existence of two distinct solar wind regimes. The larger correlation coefficients we suggest are due to structured solar wind, including discontinuities and shocks, while the smaller are likely due to Alfvénic turbulence. While further work will be required to firmly establish the physical nature of the two populations, the results of the analysis are consistent with a solar wind that consists of turbulence from quiet regions of the Sun interspersed with highly filamentary structures largely convected from regions in the inner solar corona. The bimodal appearance of the distributions is less evident in the solar wind speed than in the density correlations, consistent with the observation that the filamentary structures are convected with nearly constant speed by the time they reach 1 AU. We also find that at solar minimum the fits for the density correlations have smaller high-correlation components than at solar maximum. We interpret this as due to the presence of more relatively uniform Alfvénic regions at solar minimum than at solar maximum.

  2. Pitch Angle Control for Variable Speed Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mouna Ben Smida

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract.Pitch control is a practical technique for power regulation above the rated wind speed it is considered as the most efficient and popular power control method. As conventional pitch control usually use PI controller, the mathematical model of the system should be known well.This paper deals with the operation and the control of the direct driven permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG.Different conventional strategies of pitch angle control are described and validated through simulation results under Matlab\\Simulink.

  3. Smoothing Control of Wind Farm Output by Using Kinetic Energy of Variable Speed Wind Power Generators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sato, Daiki; Saitoh, Hiroumi

    This paper proposes a new control method for reducing fluctuation of power system frequency through smoothing active power output of wind farm. The proposal is based on the modulation of rotaional kinetic energy of variable speed wind power generators through power converters between permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG) and transmission lines. In this paper, the proposed control is called Fluctuation Absorption by Flywheel Characteristics control (FAFC). The FAFC can be easily implemented by adding wind farm output signal to Maximum Power Point Tracking control signal through a feedback control loop. In order to verify the effectiveness of the FAFC control, a simulation study was carried out. In the study, it was assumed that the wind farm consisting of PMSG type wind power generator and induction machine type wind power generaotors is connected with a power sysem. The results of the study show that the FAFC control is a useful method for reducing the impacts of wind farm output fluctuation on system frequency without additional devices such as secondary battery.

  4. Soil tillage and windbreak effects on millet and cowpea: I. Wind speed, evaporation, and wind erosion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Banzhaf, J.; Leihner, D.E.; Buerkert, A.; Serafini, P.G.

    1992-01-01

    Deforestation, overgrazing, and declining soil regeneration periods have resulted in increased wind erosion problems in dry areas of the West African Sahel, but little is known about the bio-physical factors involved. This research was conducted to determine the effects of ridging and four different windbreak spacings on wind erosion, potential evaporation, and soil water reserves. A field trial was conducted from 1985 to 1987 on 12 ha of a Psammentic Paleustalf in Southern Niger. Millet, Pennisetum glaucum (L.), and cowpea, Vigna unguiculata (L.) Walp., were seeded in strips on flat and ridged soil. Windbreaks of savannah vegetation were spaced at 6, 20, 40, and 90 m. The effects of ridging on wind speed, evaporation, and wind erosion were small and mostly non-significant. However, average wind speed at 0.3 m above ground in the center of cowpea and millet strips was significantly reduced from 2.8 to 2.1 m s -1 as windbreak distances narrowed from 90 to 6 m. As a consequence, potential evaporation declined by 15% and the amount of windblown soil particles by 50% in ridged and by 70% in flat treatments. Despite reduced potential evaporation, average subsoil water reserves were 14 mm smaller in the 6- than in the 20-m windbreak spacing indicating excessive water extraction by the windbreak vegetation. Thus, establishing windbreaks with natural savannah vegetation may require a careful consideration of the agronomic benefits and costs to competing crops. 21 refs., 5 figs

  5. Accounting for the speed shear in wind turbine power performance measurement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Rozenn; Courtney, Michael; Gottschall, Julia

    2011-01-01

    The current IEC standard for wind turbine power performance measurement only requires measurement of the wind speed at hub height assuming this wind speed to be representative for the whole rotor swept area. However, the power output of a wind turbine depends on the kinetic energy flux, which...... itself depends on the wind speed profile, especially for large turbines. Therefore, it is important to characterize the wind profile in front of the turbine, and this should be preferably achieved by measuring the wind speed over the vertical range between lower and higher rotor tips. In this paper, we...... describe an experiment in which wind speed profiles were measured in front of a multimegawatt turbine using a ground–based pulsed lidar. Ignoring the vertical shear was shown to overestimate the kinetic energy flux of these profiles, in particular for those deviating significantly from a power law profile...

  6. Effective wind speed estimation: Comparison between Kalman Filter and Takagi-Sugeno observer techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauterin, Eckhard; Kammerer, Philipp; Kühn, Martin; Schulte, Horst

    2016-05-01

    Advanced model-based control of wind turbines requires knowledge of the states and the wind speed. This paper benchmarks a nonlinear Takagi-Sugeno observer for wind speed estimation with enhanced Kalman Filter techniques: The performance and robustness towards model-structure uncertainties of the Takagi-Sugeno observer, a Linear, Extended and Unscented Kalman Filter are assessed. Hence the Takagi-Sugeno observer and enhanced Kalman Filter techniques are compared based on reduced-order models of a reference wind turbine with different modelling details. The objective is the systematic comparison with different design assumptions and requirements and the numerical evaluation of the reconstruction quality of the wind speed. Exemplified by a feedforward loop employing the reconstructed wind speed, the benefit of wind speed estimation within wind turbine control is illustrated. Copyright © 2015 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Comparison of measured and simulated wind speed data in the North Atlantic

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winterfeldt, J. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung

    2008-11-06

    A systematic investigation and comparison of near-surface marine wind speed obtained from in situ and satellite observations, atmospheric reanalyses and regional atmospheric hindcasts with reanalysis driven regional climate models (RCMs) is presented for the eastern North Atlantic and the North Sea. Wind speed retrievals from two remote sensing data sets, namely QuikSCAT and the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS) data set, are found to give good representation of observed near-surface wind speed. The value of the root mean squared error (RMSE) for all co-located HOAPS and in situ wind speed data is 2 m/s, while it is 1.8 m/s for QuikSCAT demonstrating that QuikSCAT's mission requirement of providing wind speed with an RMSE of 2 m/s is met for the eastern North Atlantic and the North Sea. QuikSCAT shows a slightly better agreement with observed instantaneous wind speed and its frequency distribution than HOAPS. In contrast, HOAPS wind speed is available for a much longer period and is therefore the more suitable product for climatic studies or investigations of trends in wind speed. The capability of two state-of-the-art RCMs (with and without spectral nudging applied) to add value for surface marine wind fields in comparison to the reanalysis wind speed forcing is assessed by the comparison with in situ wind speed observations in the eastern North Atlantic in 1998. The comparison of the 10 m wind speed forecasts from the NCEP/NCAR and NCEP/DOE-II reanalyses with in-situ observations demonstrates the implausibility of the latter forecast resulting in its non-consideration in the added value assessment. The added value is investigated for instantaneous wind speeds (relevant for case studies) and their frequency distribution (relevant for e.g., extreme value statistics and estimations of wind potential). The observations are discriminated into groups according to their proximity to land and assimilation status, meaning whether

  8. Simulation model of an active-stall fixed-speed wind turbine controller

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jauch, C.; Hansen, A.D.; Sorensen, P.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2004-07-01

    This paper describes an active-stall wind turbine controller. The objective is to develop a general model of an active stall controller in order to simulate the operation of grid connected active stall wind turbines. The active stall turbine concept and its control strategies are presented and evaluated by simulations. The presented controller is described for continuous operation under all wind speeds from start-up wind speed to shut down wind speed. Due to its parametric implementation it is general i. e. it can represent different active stall wind turbine controllers and can be implemented in different simulation tools. (author)

  9. On Using Wind Speed Preview to Reduce Wind Turbine Tower Oscillations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristalny, Maxim; Madjidian, Daria; Knudsen, Torben

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the potential of using previewed wind speed measurements for damping wind turbine fore-aft tower oscillations. Using recent results on continuous-time H 2 preview control, we develop a numerically efficient framework for the feedforward controller synthesis. One of the major benefits...... characteristics on the achievable performance and on the required length of preview. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for the distortion in the controller synthesis and quantify the potential benefits of using previewed information by means of simulations based on real-world turbine data....

  10. Complete methodology on generating realistic wind speed profiles based on measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gavriluta, Catalin; Spataru, Sergiu; Mosincat, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    , wind modelling for medium and large time scales is poorly treated in the present literature. This paper presents methods for generating realistic wind speed profiles based on real measurements. The wind speed profile is divided in a low- frequency component (describing long term variations...

  11. Wind Power Plant Prediction by Using Neural Networks: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Z.; Gao, W.; Wan, Y. H.; Muljadi, E.

    2012-08-01

    This paper introduces a method of short-term wind power prediction for a wind power plant by training neural networks based on historical data of wind speed and wind direction. The model proposed is shown to achieve a high accuracy with respect to the measured data.

  12. Flying with the wind: Scale dependency of speed and direction measurements in modelling wind support in avian flight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, Kamran; Kranstauber, Bart; Weinzierl, Rolf P.; Griffin, Larry; Reese, Eileen C.; Cabot, David; Cruz, Sebastian; Proaño, Carolina; Takekawa, John Y.; Newman, Scott H.; Waldenström, Jonas; Bengtsson, Daniel; Kays, Roland; Wikelski, Martin; Bohrer, Gil

    2013-01-01

    Background: Understanding how environmental conditions, especially wind, influence birds' flight speeds is a prerequisite for understanding many important aspects of bird flight, including optimal migration strategies, navigation, and compensation for wind drift. Recent developments in tracking technology and the increased availability of data on large-scale weather patterns have made it possible to use path annotation to link the location of animals to environmental conditions such as wind speed and direction. However, there are various measures available for describing not only wind conditions but also the bird's flight direction and ground speed, and it is unclear which is best for determining the amount of wind support (the length of the wind vector in a bird’s flight direction) and the influence of cross-winds (the length of the wind vector perpendicular to a bird’s direction) throughout a bird's journey.Results: We compared relationships between cross-wind, wind support and bird movements, using path annotation derived from two different global weather reanalysis datasets and three different measures of direction and speed calculation for 288 individuals of nine bird species. Wind was a strong predictor of bird ground speed, explaining 10-66% of the variance, depending on species. Models using data from different weather sources gave qualitatively similar results; however, determining flight direction and speed from successive locations, even at short (15 min intervals), was inferior to using instantaneous GPS-based measures of speed and direction. Use of successive location data significantly underestimated the birds' ground and airspeed, and also resulted in mistaken associations between cross-winds, wind support, and their interactive effects, in relation to the birds' onward flight.Conclusions: Wind has strong effects on bird flight, and combining GPS technology with path annotation of weather variables allows us to quantify these effects for

  13. Power system integration and control of variable speed wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eek, Jarle

    2009-12-15

    A wind power plant is a highly dynamic system that dependent on the type of technology requires a number of automatic control loops. This research deals with modelling, control and analysis related to power system integration of variable speed, pitch controlled wind turbines. All turbine components have been modelled and implemented in the power system simulation program SIMPOW, and a description of the modelling approach for each component is given. The level of model detail relates to the classical modelling of power system components for power system stability studies, where low frequency oscillations are of special importance. The wind turbine model includes a simplified representation of the developed rotor torque and the thrust force based on C{sub p-} and C{sub t} characteristic curves. The mechanical system model represents the fundamental torsional mode and the first mode of blades and tower movements. Two generator technologies have been investigated. The doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) and the stator converter interfaced permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG). A simplified model of a 2 level voltage source converter is used for both machine types. The generator converter controllers have been given special attention. All model components are linearized for the purpose of control system design and power system interaction related to small signal stability analysis. Different control strategies discussed in the literature have been investigated with regard to power system interaction aspects. All control parameters are identified using the internal model control approach. The analysis is focused on three main areas: 1. Identification of low damped oscillatory modes. This is carried out by the establishment and discussion of wind turbine modelling. 2. Interaction between control loops. A systematic approach is presented in order to analyse the influence of control loops used in variable speed wind turbines. 3.Impact on power system performance

  14. Application of nonparametric regression methods to study the relationship between NO2 concentrations and local wind direction and speed at background sites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, Aoife; Misstear, Bruce; Broderick, Brian

    2011-02-15

    Background concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)) are not constant but vary temporally and spatially. The current paper presents a powerful tool for the quantification of the effects of wind direction and wind speed on background NO(2) concentrations, particularly in cases where monitoring data are limited. In contrast to previous studies which applied similar methods to sites directly affected by local pollution sources, the current study focuses on background sites with the aim of improving methods for predicting background concentrations adopted in air quality modelling studies. The relationship between measured NO(2) concentration in air at three such sites in Ireland and locally measured wind direction has been quantified using nonparametric regression methods. The major aim was to analyse a method for quantifying the effects of local wind direction on background levels of NO(2) in Ireland. The method was expanded to include wind speed as an added predictor variable. A Gaussian kernel function is used in the analysis and circular statistics employed for the wind direction variable. Wind direction and wind speed were both found to have a statistically significant effect on background levels of NO(2) at all three sites. Frequently environmental impact assessments are based on short term baseline monitoring producing a limited dataset. The presented non-parametric regression methods, in contrast to the frequently used methods such as binning of the data, allow concentrations for missing data pairs to be estimated and distinction between spurious and true peaks in concentrations to be made. The methods were found to provide a realistic estimation of long term concentration variation with wind direction and speed, even for cases where the data set is limited. Accurate identification of the actual variation at each location and causative factors could be made, thus supporting the improved definition of background concentrations for use in air quality modelling

  15. A Combined Reliability Model of VSC-HVDC Connected Offshore Wind Farms Considering Wind Speed Correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

    2017-01-01

    and WTGs outage. The wind speed correlation between different WFs is included in the two-dimensional multistate WF model by using an improved k-means clustering method. Then, the entire system with two WFs and a threeterminal VSC-HVDC system is modeled as a multi-state generation unit. The proposed model...... is applied to the Roy Billinton test system (RBTS) for adequacy studies. Both the probability and frequency indices are calculated. The effectiveness and accuracy of the combined model is validated by comparing results with the sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The effects of the outage of VSC-HVDC...... system and wind speed correlation on the system reliability were analyzed. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to investigate the impact of repair time of the offshore VSC-HVDC system on system reliability....

  16. An appraisal of wind speed distribution prediction by soft computing methodologies: A comparative study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petković, Dalibor; Shamshirband, Shahaboddin; Anuar, Nor Badrul; Saboohi, Hadi; Abdul Wahab, Ainuddin Wahid; Protić, Milan; Zalnezhad, Erfan; Mirhashemi, Seyed Mohammad Amin

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Probabilistic distribution functions of wind speed. • Two parameter Weibull probability distribution. • To build an effective prediction model of distribution of wind speed. • Support vector regression application as probability function for wind speed. - Abstract: The probabilistic distribution of wind speed is among the more significant wind characteristics in examining wind energy potential and the performance of wind energy conversion systems. When the wind speed probability distribution is known, the wind energy distribution can be easily obtained. Therefore, the probability distribution of wind speed is a very important piece of information required in assessing wind energy potential. For this reason, a large number of studies have been established concerning the use of a variety of probability density functions to describe wind speed frequency distributions. Although the two-parameter Weibull distribution comprises a widely used and accepted method, solving the function is very challenging. In this study, the polynomial and radial basis functions (RBF) are applied as the kernel function of support vector regression (SVR) to estimate two parameters of the Weibull distribution function according to previously established analytical methods. Rather than minimizing the observed training error, SVR p oly and SVR r bf attempt to minimize the generalization error bound, so as to achieve generalized performance. According to the experimental results, enhanced predictive accuracy and capability of generalization can be achieved using the SVR approach compared to other soft computing methodologies

  17. Fixed-speed active-stall wind turbines in offshore applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akhmatov, Vladislav; Nielsen, Arne Hejde

    2005-01-01

    A large offshore wind farm in the East Danish power system was commissioned in 2003 at Rodsand. The power capacity of the wind farm is 165 MW divided between 72 wind turbines. For this large offshore application, robust and well-known wind technology has been chosen in the form of fixed-speed, ac...

  18. Tuning of the PI Controller Parameters of a PMSG Wind Turbine to Improve Control Performance under Various Wind Speeds

    OpenAIRE

    Yun-Su Kim; Il-Yop Chung; Seung-Il Moon

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents a method to seek the PI controller parameters of a PMSG wind turbine to improve control performance. Since operating conditions vary with the wind speed, therefore the PI controller parameters should be determined as a function of the wind speed. Small-signal modeling of a PMSG WT is implemented to analyze the stability under various operating conditions and with eigenvalues obtained from the small-signal model of the PMSG WT, which are coordinated by adjusting the PI con...

  19. A Novel Empirical Mode Decomposition With Support Vector Regression for Wind Speed Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Ye; Suganthan, Ponnuthurai Nagaratnam; Srikanth, Narasimalu

    2016-08-01

    Wind energy is a clean and an abundant renewable energy source. Accurate wind speed forecasting is essential for power dispatch planning, unit commitment decision, maintenance scheduling, and regulation. However, wind is intermittent and wind speed is difficult to predict. This brief proposes a novel wind speed forecasting method by integrating empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector regression (SVR) methods. The EMD is used to decompose the wind speed time series into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) and a residue. Subsequently, a vector combining one historical data from each IMF and the residue is generated to train the SVR. The proposed EMD-SVR model is evaluated with a wind speed data set. The proposed EMD-SVR model outperforms several recently reported methods with respect to accuracy or computational complexity.

  20. Flicker study on variable speed wind turbines with doubly fed induction generators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Tao; Chen, Zhe; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2005-01-01

    to a conclusion that the factors mentioned above have different influences on flicker emission compared with that in the case of the fixed speed wind turbine. Flicker mitigation is realized by output reactive power control of the variable speed wind turbine with doubly fed induction generator. Simulation results...... show the wind turbine output reactive power control provides an effective means for flicker mitigation regardless of mean wind speed, turbulence intensity and short circuit capacity ratio.......Grid connected wind turbines may produce flicker during continuous operation. This paper presents a simulation model of a MW-level variable speed wind turbine with a doubly fed induction generator developed in the simulation tool of PSCAD/EMTDC. Flicker emission of variable speed wind turbines...

  1. On multivariate imputation and forecasting of decadal wind speed missing data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wesonga, Ronald

    2015-01-01

    This paper demonstrates the application of multiple imputations by chained equations and time series forecasting of wind speed data. The study was motivated by the high prevalence of missing wind speed historic data. Findings based on the fully conditional specification under multiple imputations by chained equations, provided reliable wind speed missing data imputations. Further, the forecasting model shows, the smoothing parameter, alpha (0.014) close to zero, confirming that recent past observations are more suitable for use to forecast wind speeds. The maximum decadal wind speed for Entebbe International Airport was estimated to be 17.6 metres per second at a 0.05 level of significance with a bound on the error of estimation of 10.8 metres per second. The large bound on the error of estimations confirms the dynamic tendencies of wind speed at the airport under study.

  2. Modelling and control of variable speed wind turbines for power system studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Michalke, Gabriele; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2010-01-01

    and implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. Important issues like the fault ride-through and grid support capabilities of these wind turbine concepts are addressed. The paper reveals that advanced control of variable speed wind turbines can improve power system stability. Finally......, it will be shown in the paper that wind parks consisting of variable speed wind turbines can help nearby connected fixed speed wind turbines to ride-through grid faults. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.......Modern wind turbines are predominantly variable speed wind turbines with power electronic interface. Emphasis in this paper is therefore on the modelling and control issues of these wind turbine concepts and especially on their impact on the power system. The models and control are developed...

  3. Flicker Mitigation by Individual Pitch Control of Variable Speed Wind Turbines With DFIG

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Yunqian; Chen, Zhe; Hu, Weihao

    2014-01-01

    generatorto investigate the flicker emission and mitigation issues. An individual pitch control (IPC) strategy is proposed to reduce the flicker emission at different wind speed conditions. The IPC scheme is proposed and the individual pitch controller is designed according to the generator active power...... and the azimuth angle of the wind turbine. The simulations are performed on the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) 1.5-MW upwind reference wind turbine model. Simulation results show that damping the generator active power by IPC is an effective means for flicker mitigation of variable speed wind......Due to the wind speed variation, wind shear and tower shadow effects, grid connected wind turbines are the sources of power fluctuations which may produce flicker during continuous operation. This paper presents a model of an MW-level variable-speed wind turbine with a doubly fed induction...

  4. Wind Speed Pattern in Nigeria (A Case Study of Some Coastal and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    Department of Physics and Solar Energy, Bowen University Iwo, Osun State, Nigeria ... ABSTRACT: In this study, wind speeds were analysed using the daily wind data obtained from Nigeria ..... Selected sites from Three Geopolitical Zones in.

  5. Low Wind Speed Turbine Developments in Convoloid Gearing: Final Technical Report, June 2005 - October 2008

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Genesis Partners LP

    2010-08-01

    This report presents the results of a study conducted by Genesis Partners LP as part of the United States Department of Energy Wind Energy Research Program to develop wind technology that will enable wind systems to compete in regions having low wind speeds. The purpose of the program is to reduce the cost of electricity from large wind systems in areas having Class 4 winds to 3 cents per kWh for onshore systems or 5 cents per kWh for offshore systems. This work builds upon previous activities under the WindPACT project, the Next Generation Turbine project, and Phase I of the Low Wind Speed Turbine (LWST) project. This project is concerned with the development of more cost-effective gearing for speed increasers for wind turbines.

  6. Evaluating anemometer drift: A statistical approach to correct biases in wind speed measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Asin, Jesus; McVicar, Tim R.; Minola, Lorenzo; Lopez-Moreno, Juan I.; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.; Chen, Deliang

    2018-05-01

    Recent studies on observed wind variability have revealed a decline (termed "stilling") of near-surface wind speed during the last 30-50 years over many mid-latitude terrestrial regions, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere. The well-known impact of cup anemometer drift (i.e., wear on the bearings) on the observed weakening of wind speed has been mentioned as a potential contributor to the declining trend. However, to date, no research has quantified its contribution to stilling based on measurements, which is most likely due to lack of quantification of the ageing effect. In this study, a 3-year field experiment (2014-2016) with 10-minute paired wind speed measurements from one new and one malfunctioned (i.e., old bearings) SEAC SV5 cup anemometer which has been used by the Spanish Meteorological Agency in automatic weather stations since mid-1980s, was developed for assessing for the first time the role of anemometer drift on wind speed measurement. The results showed a statistical significant impact of anemometer drift on wind speed measurements, with the old anemometer measuring lower wind speeds than the new one. Biases show a marked temporal pattern and clear dependency on wind speed, with both weak and strong winds causing significant biases. This pioneering quantification of biases has allowed us to define two regression models that correct up to 37% of the artificial bias in wind speed due to measurement with an old anemometer.

  7. Analysis of the upper-truncated Weibull distribution for wind speed

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kantar, Yeliz Mert; Usta, Ilhan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Upper-truncated Weibull distribution is proposed to model wind speed. • Upper-truncated Weibull distribution nests Weibull distribution as special case. • Maximum likelihood is the best method for upper-truncated Weibull distribution. • Fitting accuracy of upper-truncated Weibull is analyzed on wind speed data. - Abstract: Accurately modeling wind speed is critical in estimating the wind energy potential of a certain region. In order to model wind speed data smoothly, several statistical distributions have been studied. Truncated distributions are defined as a conditional distribution that results from restricting the domain of statistical distribution and they also cover base distribution. This paper proposes, for the first time, the use of upper-truncated Weibull distribution, in modeling wind speed data and also in estimating wind power density. In addition, a comparison is made between upper-truncated Weibull distribution and well known Weibull distribution using wind speed data measured in various regions of Turkey. The obtained results indicate that upper-truncated Weibull distribution shows better performance than Weibull distribution in estimating wind speed distribution and wind power. Therefore, upper-truncated Weibull distribution can be an alternative for use in the assessment of wind energy potential

  8. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu; Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon

    2016-01-01

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  9. Prediction of Typhoon Wind Speeds under Global Warming Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choun, Young Sun; Kim, Min Kyu [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Ju Whan; Kim, Yang Seon [Mokpo National University, Muan (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    The continuous increase of SST by global warming conditions in the western North Pacific Ocean results in an increased occurrence of supertyphoons in East Asia and the Korean Peninsula. Recent numerical experiments have found that the central pressures of two historical typhoons, Maemi (2003) and Rusa (2002), which recorded the highest storm surges along the coasts of the Korean Peninsula, dropped about 19 and 17 hPa, respectively, when considering the future SST (a warming of 3.9 .deg. C for 100 years) over the East China Sea. The maximum wind speeds increase under global warming conditions. The probability of occurrence of super-typhoons increases in the future. The estimated return period for supertyphoons affecting the Younggwang site is about 1,000,000 years.

  10. Changes in Surface Wind Speed over North America from CMIP5 Model Projections and Implications for Wind Energy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sujay Kulkarni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The centennial trends in the surface wind speed over North America are deduced from global climate model simulations in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5 (CMIP5 archive. Using the 21st century simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenario of greenhouse gas emissions, 5–10 percent increases per century in the 10 m wind speed are found over Central and East-Central United States, the Californian Coast, and the South and East Coasts of the USA in winter. In summer, climate models projected decreases in the wind speed ranging from 5 to 10 percent per century over the same coastal regions. These projected changes in the surface wind speed are moderate and imply that the current estimate of wind power potential for North America based on present-day climatology will not be significantly changed by the greenhouse gas forcing in the coming decades.

  11. The Demonstration of Short-Term Consolidation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolicoeur, Pierre; Dell'Acqua, Roberto

    1998-01-01

    Results of seven experiments involving 112 college students or staff using a dual-task approach provide evidence that encoding information into short-term memory involves a distinct process termed short-term consolidation (STC). Results suggest that STC has limited capacity and that it requires central processing mechanisms. (SLD)

  12. Short-Term Intercultural Psychotherapy: Ethnographic Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, Karen M.

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical…

  13. Intelligent control for large-scale variable speed variable pitch wind turbines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xinfang ZHANG; Daping XU; Yibing LIU

    2004-01-01

    Large-scale wind turbine generator systems have strong nonlinear multivariable characteristics with many uncertain factors and disturbances.Automatic control is crucial for the efficiency and reliability of wind turbines.On the basis of simplified and proper model of variable speed variable pitch wind turbines,the effective wind speed is estimated using extended Kalman filter.Intelligent control schemes proposed in the paper include two loops which operate in synchronism with each other.At below-rated wind speed,the inner loop adopts adaptive fuzzy control based on variable universe for generator torque regulation to realize maximum wind energy capture.At above-rated wind speed, a controller based on least square support vector machine is proposed to adjust pitch angle and keep rated output power.The simulation shows the effectiveness of the intelligent control.

  14. A conceptual framework for evaluating variable speed generator options for wind energy applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddoch, T. W.; Lipo, T. A.; Hinrichsen, E. N.; Hudson, T. L.; Thomas, R. J.

    1995-01-01

    Interest in variable speed generating technology has accelerated as greater emphasis on overall efficiency and superior dynamic and control properties in wind-electric generating systems are sought. This paper reviews variable speed technology options providing advantages and disadvantages of each. Furthermore, the dynamic properties of variable speed systems are contrasted with synchronous operation. Finally, control properties of variable speed systems are examined.

  15. Comparison of methods for the identification of mesoscale wind speed fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Rieke Mehrens

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Mesoscale wind speed fluctuations influence the characteristics of offshore wind energy. These recurring wind speed changes on time scales between tens of minutes and six hours lead to power output fluctuations. In order to investigate the meteorological conditions associated with mesoscale wind speed fluctuations, a measure is needed to detect these situations in wind speed time series. Previous studies used the empirical Hilbert-Huang Transform to determine the energy in the mesoscale frequency range or calculated the standard deviation of a band-pass filtered wind speed time series. The aim of this paper is to introduce newly developed empirical mesoscale fluctuation measures and to compare them with existing measures in regard to their sensitivity to recurring wind speed changes. One of the methods is based on the Hilbert-Huang Transform, two on the Fast Fourier Transform and one on wind speed increments. It is found that despite various complexity of the methods, all methods can identify days with highly variable mesoscale wind speeds equally well.

  16. Direct Torque Control of a Small Wind Turbine with a Sliding-Mode Speed Controller

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sri Lal Senanayaka, Jagath; Karimi, Hamid Reza; Robbersmyr, Kjell G.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper. the method of direct torque control in the presence of a sliding-mode speed controller is proposed for a small wind turbine being used in water heating applications. This concept and control system design can be expanded to grid connected or off-grid applications. Direct torque control of electrical machines has shown several advantages including very fast dynamics torque control over field-oriented control. Moreover. the torque and flux controllers in the direct torque control algorithms are based on hvsteretic controllers which are nonlinear. In the presence of a sliding-mode speed control. a nonlinear control system can be constructed which is matched for AC/DC conversion of the converter that gives fast responses with low overshoots. The main control objectives of the proposed small wind turbine can be maximum power point tracking and soft-stall power control. This small wind turbine consists of permanent magnet synchronous generator and external wind speed. and rotor speed measurements are not required for the system. However. a sensor is needed to detect the rated wind speed overpass events to activate proper speed references for the wind turbine. Based on the low-cost design requirement of small wind turbines. an available wind speed sensor can be modified. or a new sensor can be designed to get the required measurement. The simulation results will be provided to illustrate the excellent performance of the closed-loop control system in entire wind speed range (4-25 m/s).

  17. A study of single multiplicative neuron model with nonlinear filters for hourly wind speed prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Xuedong; Zhu, Zhiyu; Su, Xunliang; Fan, Shaosheng; Du, Zhaoping; Chang, Yanchao; Zeng, Qingjun

    2015-01-01

    Wind speed prediction is one important methods to guarantee the wind energy integrated into the whole power system smoothly. However, wind power has a non–schedulable nature due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty nature of wind speed. Therefore, wind speed prediction is an indispensable requirement for power system operators. Two new approaches for hourly wind speed prediction are developed in this study by integrating the single multiplicative neuron model and the iterated nonlinear filters for updating the wind speed sequence accurately. In the presented methods, a nonlinear state–space model is first formed based on the single multiplicative neuron model and then the iterated nonlinear filters are employed to perform dynamic state estimation on wind speed sequence with stochastic uncertainty. The suggested approaches are demonstrated using three cases wind speed data and are compared with autoregressive moving average, artificial neural network, kernel ridge regression based residual active learning and single multiplicative neuron model methods. Three types of prediction errors, mean absolute error improvement ratio and running time are employed for different models’ performance comparison. Comparison results from Tables 1–3 indicate that the presented strategies have much better performance for hourly wind speed prediction than other technologies. - Highlights: • Developed two novel hybrid modeling methods for hourly wind speed prediction. • Uncertainty and fluctuations of wind speed can be better explained by novel methods. • Proposed strategies have online adaptive learning ability. • Proposed approaches have shown better performance compared with existed approaches. • Comparison and analysis of two proposed novel models for three cases are provided

  18. The Skipheia Wind Measurement Station. Instrumentation, Wind Speed Profiles and Turbulence Spectra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aasen, S E

    1995-10-01

    This thesis describes the design of a measurement station for turbulent wind and presents results from an analysis of the collected data. The station is located at Skipheia near the south-west end of Froeya, an island off the coast of Mid-Norway. The station is unique for studies of turbulent winds because of the large numbers of sensors, which are located at various heights above ground up to 100 m, a sampling rate of 0.85 Hz and storage of the complete time series. The frequency of lightning and atmospheric discharges to the masts are quite high and much effort has gone into minimizing the damage caused by lightning activity. A major part of the thesis deals with data analysis and modelling. There are detailed discussions on the various types of wind sensors and their calibration, the data acquisition system and operating experiences with it, the database, data quality control, the wind speed profile and turbulence. 40 refs., 78 figs., 17 tabs.

  19. Hurricane Arthur and its effect on the short term variation of pCO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemay, Jonathan; Thomas, Helmuth; Craig, Susanne; Greenan, Blair; Fennel, Katja

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal changes in carbon cycling over the years have become better understood on the Scotian Shelf, however little is resolved in short term variation. Hourly measurements were collected from an autonomous moored instrument (CARIOCA) stationed at Halifax Line 2 (HL2), roughly 30km off the coast of Halifax for the 2014 year. Data from the 2007 deployment of the SeaHorse vertical sampling mooring at HL2 was also collected. Focusing on the storm event, Hurricane Arthur, July 5th 2014 reveals a significant drop in pCO2. With the shelf having carbon rich deep water, a reduction of pCO2 due to mixing went against current understanding. It was revealed that slightly above the mixed layer there is a sustained population of phytoplankton. When wind mixing from storms occurs, this population moves to the surface allowing greater light and nutrients for short term growth. This growth then reduces pCO2 for a short period of time until wind speeds slow down reducing mixing of the water column.

  20. Analysis of wind speed distributions: Wind distribution function derived from minimum cross entropy principles as better alternative to Weibull function

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kantar, Yeliz Mert; Usta, Ilhan

    2008-01-01

    In this study, the minimum cross entropy (MinxEnt) principle is applied for the first time to the wind energy field. This principle allows the inclusion of previous information of a wind speed distribution and covers the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle, which is also discussed by Li and Li and Ramirez as special cases in their wind power study. The MinxEnt probability density function (pdf) derived from the MinxEnt principle are used to determine the diurnal, monthly, seasonal and annual wind speed distributions. A comparison between MinxEnt pdfs defined on the basis of the MinxEnt principle and the Weibull pdf on wind speed data, which are taken from different sources and measured in various regions, is conducted. The wind power densities of the considered regions obtained from Weibull and MinxEnt pdfs are also compared. The results indicate that the pdfs derived from the MinxEnt principle fit better to a variety of measured wind speed data than the conventionally applied empirical Weibull pdf. Therefore, it is shown that the MinxEnt principle can be used as an alternative method to estimate both wind distribution and wind power accurately

  1. Analysis of the Flicker Level Produced by a Fixed-Speed Wind Turbine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suppioni, Vinicius; P. Grilo, Ahda

    2013-10-01

    In this article, the analysis of the flicker emission during continuous operation of a mid-scale fixed-speed wind turbine connected to a distribution system is presented. Flicker emission is investigated based on simulation results, and the dependence of flicker emission on short-circuit capacity, grid impedance angle, mean wind speed, and wind turbulence is analyzed. The simulations were conducted in different programs in order to provide a more realistic wind emulation and detailed model of mechanical and electrical components of the wind turbine. Such aim is accomplished by using FAST (Fatigue, Aerodynamics, Structures, and Turbulence) to simulate the mechanical parts of the wind turbine, Simulink/MatLab to simulate the electrical system, and TurbSim to obtain the wind model. The results show that, even for a small wind generator, the flicker level can limit the wind power capacity installed in a distribution system.

  2. Generation and Validation of Spatial Distribution of Hourly Wind Speed Time-Series using Machine Learning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veronesi, F; Grassi, S

    2016-01-01

    Wind resource assessment is a key aspect of wind farm planning since it allows to estimate the long term electricity production. Moreover, wind speed time-series at high resolution are helpful to estimate the temporal changes of the electricity generation and indispensable to design stand-alone systems, which are affected by the mismatch of supply and demand. In this work, we present a new generalized statistical methodology to generate the spatial distribution of wind speed time-series, using Switzerland as a case study. This research is based upon a machine learning model and demonstrates that statistical wind resource assessment can successfully be used for estimating wind speed time-series. In fact, this method is able to obtain reliable wind speed estimates and propagate all the sources of uncertainty (from the measurements to the mapping process) in an efficient way, i.e. minimizing computational time and load. This allows not only an accurate estimation, but the creation of precise confidence intervals to map the stochasticity of the wind resource for a particular site. The validation shows that machine learning can minimize the bias of the wind speed hourly estimates. Moreover, for each mapped location this method delivers not only the mean wind speed, but also its confidence interval, which are crucial data for planners. (paper)

  3. Generation and Validation of Spatial Distribution of Hourly Wind Speed Time-Series using Machine Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veronesi, F.; Grassi, S.

    2016-09-01

    Wind resource assessment is a key aspect of wind farm planning since it allows to estimate the long term electricity production. Moreover, wind speed time-series at high resolution are helpful to estimate the temporal changes of the electricity generation and indispensable to design stand-alone systems, which are affected by the mismatch of supply and demand. In this work, we present a new generalized statistical methodology to generate the spatial distribution of wind speed time-series, using Switzerland as a case study. This research is based upon a machine learning model and demonstrates that statistical wind resource assessment can successfully be used for estimating wind speed time-series. In fact, this method is able to obtain reliable wind speed estimates and propagate all the sources of uncertainty (from the measurements to the mapping process) in an efficient way, i.e. minimizing computational time and load. This allows not only an accurate estimation, but the creation of precise confidence intervals to map the stochasticity of the wind resource for a particular site. The validation shows that machine learning can minimize the bias of the wind speed hourly estimates. Moreover, for each mapped location this method delivers not only the mean wind speed, but also its confidence interval, which are crucial data for planners.

  4. Retrieval of Wind Speed Using an L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Monaldo, Frank M.; Thompson, Donald R.; Badger, Merete

    2007-01-01

    Retrieval of wind speed using L-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) is both an old and new endeavor. Although the Seasat L-band SAR in 1978 was not well calibrated, early results indicated a strong relationship between observed SAR image intensity and wind speed. The JERS-1 L-band SAR had limited...

  5. Retrieving hurricane wind speeds using cross-polarization C-band measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Zadelhoff, G.J.; Stoffelen, A.; Vachon, P.W.; Wolfe, J.; Horstmann, J.; Belmonte Rivas, M.

    2014-01-01

    Hurricane-force wind speeds can have a large societal impact and in this paper microwave C-band cross-polarized (VH) signals are investigated to assess if they can be used to derive extreme wind-speed conditions. European satellite scatterometers have excellent hurricane penetration capability at

  6. Effect of wind speed on performance of a solar-pv array

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thousands of solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays have been installed over the past few years, but the effect of wind speed on the predicted performance of PV arrays is not usually considered by installers. An increase in wind speed will cool the PV array, and the electrical power of the PV modules will ...

  7. Short term memory in echo state networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jaeger, H.

    2001-01-01

    The report investigates the short-term memory capacity of echo state recurrent neural networks. A quantitative measure MC of short-term memory capacity is introduced. The main result is that MC 5 N for networks with linear Output units and i.i.d. input, where N is network size. Conditions under which these maximal memory capacities are realized are described. Several theoretical and practical examples demonstrate how the short-term memory capacities of echo state networks can be exploited for...

  8. Wind Speed and Sea State Dependencies of Air-Sea Gas Transfer: Results From the High Wind Speed Gas Exchange Study (HiWinGS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomquist, B. W.; Brumer, S. E.; Fairall, C. W.; Huebert, B. J.; Zappa, C. J.; Brooks, I. M.; Yang, M.; Bariteau, L.; Prytherch, J.; Hare, J. E.; Czerski, H.; Matei, A.; Pascal, R. W.

    2017-10-01

    A variety of physical mechanisms are jointly responsible for facilitating air-sea gas transfer through turbulent processes at the atmosphere-ocean interface. The nature and relative importance of these mechanisms evolves with increasing wind speed. Theoretical and modeling approaches are advancing, but the limited quantity of observational data at high wind speeds hinders the assessment of these efforts. The HiWinGS project successfully measured gas transfer coefficients (k660) with coincident wave statistics under conditions with hourly mean wind speeds up to 24 m s-1 and significant wave heights to 8 m. Measurements of k660 for carbon dioxide (CO2) and dimethylsulfide (DMS) show an increasing trend with respect to 10 m neutral wind speed (U10N), following a power law relationship of the form: k660 CO2˜U10N1.68 and k660 dms˜U10N1.33. Among seven high wind speed events, CO2 transfer responded to the intensity of wave breaking, which depended on both wind speed and sea state in a complex manner, with k660 CO2 increasing as the wind sea approaches full development. A similar response is not observed for DMS. These results confirm the importance of breaking waves and bubble injection mechanisms in facilitating CO2 transfer. A modified version of the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment Gas transfer algorithm (COAREG ver. 3.5), incorporating a sea state-dependent calculation of bubble-mediated transfer, successfully reproduces the mean trend in observed k660 with wind speed for both gases. Significant suppression of gas transfer by large waves was not observed during HiWinGS, in contrast to results from two prior field programs.

  9. Wind Speed Prediction with Wavelet Time Series Based on Lorenz Disturbance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHANG, Y.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to the sustainable and pollution-free characteristics, wind energy has been one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources. However, the intermittent and random fluctuation of wind speed presents many challenges for reliable wind power integration and normal operation of wind farm. Accurate wind speed prediction is the key to ensure the safe operation of power system and to develop wind energy resources. Therefore, this paper has presented a wavelet time series wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance. Therefore, in this paper, combined with the atmospheric dynamical system, a wavelet-time series improved wind speed prediction model based on Lorenz disturbance is proposed and the wind turbines of different climate types in Spain and China are used to simulate the disturbances of Lorenz equations with different initial values. The prediction results show that the improved model can effectively correct the preliminary prediction of wind speed, improving the prediction. In a word, the research work in this paper will be helpful to arrange the electric power dispatching plan and ensure the normal operation of the wind farm.

  10. Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Andrew; Wiser, Ryan

    2010-08-23

    Worldwide interest in the deployment of photovoltaic generation (PV) is rapidly increasing. Operating experience with large PV plants, however, demonstrates that large, rapid changes in the output of PV plants are possible. Early studies of PV grid impacts suggested that short-term variability could be a potential limiting factor in deploying PV. Many of these early studies, however, lacked high-quality data from multiple sites to assess the costs and impacts of increasing PV penetration. As is well known for wind, accounting for the potential for geographic diversity can significantly reduce the magnitude of extreme changes in aggregated PV output, the resources required to accommodate that variability, and the potential costs of managing variability. We use measured 1-min solar insolation for 23 time-synchronized sites in the Southern Great Plains network of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and wind speed data from 10 sites in the same network to characterize the variability of PV with different degrees of geographic diversity and to compare the variability of PV to the variability of similarly sited wind. The relative aggregate variability of PV plants sited in a dense 10 x 10 array with 20 km spacing is six times less than the variability of a single site for variability on time scales less than 15-min. We find in our analysis of wind and PV plants similarly sited in a 5 x 5 grid with 50 km spacing that the variability of PV is only slightly more than the variability of wind on time scales of 5-15 min. Over shorter and longer time scales the level of variability is nearly identical. Finally, we use a simple approximation method to estimate the cost of carrying additional reserves to manage sub-hourly variability. We conclude that the costs of managing the short-term variability of PV are dramatically reduced by geographic diversity and are not substantially different from the costs for managing the short-term variability of similarly sited wind in

  11. MPPT Algorithm for Small Wind Systems based on Speed Control Strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciprian VLAD

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents experimental results of an autonomous low-power wind energy conversion system (WECS, based on a permanent-magnet synchronous generator (PMSG connected directly to the wind turbine. The purpose of this paper is to present an improving method for MPPT (Maximum Power Point Tracking algorithm based shaft rotational speed optimal control. The proposed method concern the variable delay compensation between measured wind speed from anemometer and wind shaft rotational speed proportional signal. Experimental results aiming to prove the efficiency of the proposed method are presented.

  12. Coordinated frequency control from offshore wind power plants connected to multi terminal DC system considering wind speed variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sakamuri, Jayachandra N.; Altin, Müfit; Hansen, Anca Daniela

    2017-01-01

    A coordinated fast primary frequency control scheme from offshore wind power plants (OWPPs) integrated to a three terminal high voltage DC (HVDC) system is proposed in this study. The impact of wind speed variation on the OWPP active power output and thus on the AC grid frequency and DC grid...... the active power support from OWPP with a ramp rate limiter and (iii) An alternative method for the wind turbine overloading considering rotor speed. The effectiveness of the proposed control scheme is demonstrated on a wind power plant integrated into a three terminal HVDC system developed in DIg......SILIENT PowerFactory. The results show that the proposed coordinated frequency control method performs effectively at different wind speeds and minimises the secondary effects on frequency and DC voltage....

  13. The Forecasting Procedure for Long-Term Wind Speed in the Zhangye Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhai Guo

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy crisis has made it urgent to find alternative energy sources for sustainable energy supply; wind energy is one of the attractive alternatives. Within a wind energy system, the wind speed is one key parameter; accurately forecasting of wind speed can minimize the scheduling errors and in turn increase the reliability of the electric power grid and reduce the power market ancillary service costs. This paper proposes a new hybrid model for long-term wind speed forecasting based on the first definite season index method and the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA models or the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH forecasting models. The forecasting errors are analyzed and compared with the ones obtained from the ARMA, GARCH model, and Support Vector Machine (SVM; the simulation process and results show that the developed method is simple and quite efficient for daily average wind speed forecasting of Hexi Corridor in China.

  14. Wind Turbine Generator Modeling and Simulation Where Rotational Speed is the Controlled Variable

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mihet-Popa, Lucian; Blaabjerg, Frede; Boldea, Ion

    2004-01-01

    the interaction between a wind turbine and the power system. The model is intended to simulate the behaviour of the wind turbine using induction generators both during normal operation. Sample simulation results for two induction generators (2/0.5 MW) validate the fundamental issues.......To optimise the power produced in a wind turbine, the speed of the turbine should vary with the wind speed. A simple control method is proposed that will allow an induction machine to run a turbine at its maximum power coefficient. Various types of power control strategies have been suggested...... for application in variable speed wind turbines. The usual strategy is to control the power or the torque acting on the wind turbine shafts. This paper presents an alternative control strategy, where the rotational speed is the controlled variable. The paper describes a model, which is being developed to simulate...

  15. Application of Boost Converter to Increase the Speed Range of Dual-stator Winding Induction Generator in Wind Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kavousi, Ayoub; Fathi, S. Hamid; Milimonfared, Jafar

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a topology using a Dual-stator Winding Induction Generator (DWIG) and a boost converter is proposed for the variable speed wind power application. At low rotor speeds, the generator saturation limits the voltage of the DWIG. Using a boost converter, higher DC voltage can be produced...... while the DWIG operates at Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) even at low speed and low voltage conditions. Semiconductor Excitation Controller (SEC) of the DWIG utilizes Control-Winding Voltage Oriented Control (CWVOC) method to adjust the voltage, considering V/f characteristics. For the proposed...... topology, the SEC capacity and the excitation capacitor is optimized by analyzing the SEC reactive current considering wind turbine power-speed curve, V/f strategy, and the generator parameters. The method shows that the per-unit capacity of the SEC can be limited to the inverse of DWIG magnetizing...

  16. A prediction model for wind speed ratios at pedestrian level with simplified urban canopies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikegaya, N.; Ikeda, Y.; Hagishima, A.; Razak, A. A.; Tanimoto, J.

    2017-02-01

    The purpose of this study is to review and improve prediction models for wind speed ratios at pedestrian level with simplified urban canopies. We adopted an extensive database of velocity fields under various conditions for arrays consisting of cubes, slender or flattened rectangles, and rectangles with varying roughness heights. Conclusions are summarized as follows: first, a new geometric parameter is introduced as a function of the plan area index and the aspect ratio so as to express the increase in virtual density that causes wind speed reduction. Second, the estimated wind speed ratios in the range 0.05 coefficients between the wind speeds averaged over the entire region, and the front or side region values are larger than 0.8. In contrast, in areas where the influence of roughness elements is significant, such as behind a building, the wind speeds are weakly correlated.

  17. Models for Numerical Evaluation of Variable Speed Different Wind Generator Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Hui; Chen, Zhe; Polinder, H.

    2007-01-01

    of different wind generator systems, the other presents the optimization results and evaluation of variable speed wind generator systems. In this report, firstly, it gives an overview of various wind generator topologies, including their advantages and disadvantages, market status and developing trends. Next...

  18. Dynamic modelling and analysis of a wind turbine with variable speed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steinbuch, M.

    1986-01-01

    On behalf of the operation of the Dutch National Wind Farm, which is under construction now, a study is being performed on the control system design of variable speed wind turbines. To realize this a non-linear dynamic model of a wind turbine with synchronous generator and AC/ DC/AC conversion has

  19. Validation of sentinel-1A SAR coastal wind speeds against scanning LiDAR

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahsbahs, Tobias Torben; Badger, Merete; Karagali, Ioanna

    2017-01-01

    High-accuracy wind data for coastal regions is needed today, e.g., for the assessment of wind resources. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is the only satellite borne sensor that has enough resolution to resolve wind speeds closer than 10 km to shore but the Geophysical Model Functions (GMF) used fo...

  20. Power Control of Permanent Magnet Generator Based Variable Speed Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Fujin; Chen, Zhe

    2009-01-01

    When the wind power accounts for a large portion of the grid, it will be required to regulate the active power and reactive power. This paper investigates a MWlevel variable speed wind turbine with a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG). The power control capabilities of two kinds...... of control schemes conducted respectively on this wind turbine under two conditions, including rapid wind speed change and grids faults, are compared. The simulation study of the wind turbine system is conducted using PSCAD/EMTDC, and the results show the different power control capabilities of the two...

  1. Overall control strategy of variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.D.; Iov, F.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2004-01-01

    The variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine is today the most widely used concept. The paper presents an overall control system of the variable speed DFIG wind turbine, with focus on the control strategies and algorithms applied at each hierarchical control level of the wind tu......-fed induction generator is implemented in the dynamic power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. Simulation results are performed and analyzed in different normal operating conditions....

  2. Dependence of US hurricane economic loss on maximum wind speed and storm size

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhai, Alice R; Jiang, Jonathan H

    2014-01-01

    Many empirical hurricane economic loss models consider only wind speed and neglect storm size. These models may be inadequate in accurately predicting the losses of super-sized storms, such as Hurricane Sandy in 2012. In this study, we examined the dependences of normalized US hurricane loss on both wind speed and storm size for 73 tropical cyclones that made landfall in the US from 1988 through 2012. A multi-variate least squares regression is used to construct a hurricane loss model using both wind speed and size as predictors. Using maximum wind speed and size together captures more variance of losses than using wind speed or size alone. It is found that normalized hurricane loss (L) approximately follows a power law relation with maximum wind speed (V max ) and size (R), L = 10 c V max a R b , with c determining an overall scaling factor and the exponents a and b generally ranging between 4–12 and 2–4 respectively. Both a and b tend to increase with stronger wind speed. Hurricane Sandy’s size was about three times of the average size of all hurricanes analyzed. Based on the bi-variate regression model that explains the most variance for hurricanes, Hurricane Sandy’s loss would be approximately 20 times smaller if its size were of the average size with maximum wind speed unchanged. It is important to revise conventional empirical hurricane loss models that are only dependent on maximum wind speed to include both maximum wind speed and size as predictors. (letters)

  3. Fast Weight Long Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Keller, T. Anderson; Sridhar, Sharath Nittur; Wang, Xin

    2018-01-01

    Associative memory using fast weights is a short-term memory mechanism that substantially improves the memory capacity and time scale of recurrent neural networks (RNNs). As recent studies introduced fast weights only to regular RNNs, it is unknown whether fast weight memory is beneficial to gated RNNs. In this work, we report a significant synergy between long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and fast weight associative memories. We show that this combination, in learning associative retrie...

  4. First and second order Markov chain models for synthetic generation of wind speed time series

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shamshad, A.; Bawadi, M.A.; Wan Hussin, W.M.A.; Majid, T.A.; Sanusi, S.A.M.

    2005-01-01

    Hourly wind speed time series data of two meteorological stations in Malaysia have been used for stochastic generation of wind speed data using the transition matrix approach of the Markov chain process. The transition probability matrices have been formed using two different approaches: the first approach involves the use of the first order transition probability matrix of a Markov chain, and the second involves the use of a second order transition probability matrix that uses the current and preceding values to describe the next wind speed value. The algorithm to generate the wind speed time series from the transition probability matrices is described. Uniform random number generators have been used for transition between successive time states and within state wind speed values. The ability of each approach to retain the statistical properties of the generated speed is compared with the observed ones. The main statistical properties used for this purpose are mean, standard deviation, median, percentiles, Weibull distribution parameters, autocorrelations and spectral density of wind speed values. The comparison of the observed wind speed and the synthetically generated ones shows that the statistical characteristics are satisfactorily preserved

  5. Optimal application of climate data to the development of design wind speeds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruger, Andries C.; Retief, Johan V.; Goliger, Adam M.

    2014-01-01

    Africa (WASA project) focuses, amongst others, on the development of a Regional Extreme Wind Climate (REWC) for South Africa. Wind farms are planned for areas with relatively strong and sustained winds, with wind turbines classed according to their suitability for different wind conditions. The REWC...... statistics are used during the construction and design phase to make assumptions about the local strong wind climate that the wind turbines will be exposed to, with the local environment and topography as additional input. The simultaneous development of the REWC and revision of the extreme wind statistics...... of South Africa created an opportunity to bring together a range of expertise that could contribute to the optimal development of design wind speed information. These include the knowledge of the statistical extraction of extreme wind observations from reanalysis and model data, the quality control...

  6. Accounting for the speed shear in wind turbine power performance measurement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wagner, R.

    2010-04-15

    The power curve of a wind turbine is the primary characteristic of the machine as it is the basis of the warranty for it power production. The current IEC standard for power performance measurement only requires the measurement of the wind speed at hub height and the air density to characterise the wind field in front of the turbine. However, with the growing size of the turbine rotors during the last years, the effect of the variations of the wind speed within the swept rotor area, and therefore of the power output, cannot be ignored any longer. Primary effects on the power performance are from the vertical wind shear and the turbulence intensity. The work presented in this thesis consists of the description and the investigation of a simple method to account for the wind speed shear in the power performance measurement. Ignoring this effect was shown to result in a power curve dependant on the shear condition, therefore on the season and the site. It was then proposed to use an equivalent wind speed accounting for the whole speed profile in front of the turbine. The method was first tested with aerodynamic simulations of a multi-megawatt wind turbine which demonstrated the decrease of the scatter in the power curve. A power curve defined in terms of this equivalent wind speed would be less dependant on the shear than the standard power curve. The equivalent wind speed method was then experimentally validated with lidar measurements. Two equivalent wind speed definitions were considered both resulting in the reduction of the scatter in the power curve. As a lidar wind profiler can measure the wind speed at several heights within the rotor span, the wind speed profile is described with more accuracy than with the power law model. The equivalent wind speed derived from measurements, including at least one measurement above hub height, resulted in a smaller scatter in the power curve than the equivalent wind speed derived from profiles extrapolated from measurements

  7. Maximizing Energy Capture of Fixed-Pitch Variable-Speed Wind Turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pierce, K.; Migliore, P.

    2000-08-01

    Field tests of a variable-speed, stall-regulated wind turbine were conducted at a US Department of Energy Laboratory. A variable-speed generating system, comprising a doubly-fed generator and series-resonant power converter, was installed on a 275-kW, downwind, two-blade wind turbine. Gearbox, generator, and converter efficiency were measured in the laboratory so that rotor aerodynamic efficiency could be determined from field measurement of generator power. The turbine was operated at several discrete rotational speeds to develop power curves for use in formulating variable-speed control strategies. Test results for fixed-speed and variable-speed operation are presented along with discussion and comparison of the variable-speed control methodologies. Where possible, comparisons between fixed-speed and variable-speed operation are shown.

  8. Comparison of AMSR-2 wind speed and sea surface temperature ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The SST–wind relation is analyzed using data both from the buoy and satellite. As a result, the low- SST is associated with low-wind condition (positive slope) in the northern part of the Bay of Bengal (BoB), while low SST values are associated with high wind conditions (negative slope) over the southern BoB. Moreover, the ...

  9. Control of variable speed wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A.D.; Soerensen, P. [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F. [Aalborg Univ., Inst. of Energy Technology, Aalborg (Denmark)

    2004-07-01

    draIn this paper, a Control method suitable for a variable speed grid connected pitch-controlled wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG) is developed. The targets of the Control system are: 1) to Control the power drawn from the wind turbine in order to track the wind turbine optimum operation point 2) to limit the power in case of high wind speeds and 3) to Control the reactive power interchanged between the wind turbine generator and the grid. The considered configuration of DFIG is an induction generator with a wound rotor connected to the grid through a back-to-back power converter and a stator directly connected to the grid. The paper presents the overall Control system of the variable speed DFIG wind turbine, with focus on the Control strategies and algorithms applied at each hierarchical Control level of the wind turbine. There are two Control levels: a DFIG Control level and wind turbine Control level. The DFIG Control level contains a fast Control of the power converter and of the doubly-fed induction generator and it has as goal to Control the active and reactive power of the wind turbine independently. The wind turbine Control level supervises with Control signals both the DFIG Control level and the hydraulic pitch Control system of the wind turbine. The present Control method is designed for normal continuous operations. The variable speed/variable pitch wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator is implemented in the dynamic power system simulation tool DIgSILENT, which makes possible to investigate the dynamic performance of gid-connected wind turbines as a part of realistic electrical grid models. Several significant simulation results are performed With the overall Control-implemented algorithm applied on a variable speed, variable pitch wind turbine model. (au)

  10. Forecasting and simulating wind speed in Corsica by using an autoregressive model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poggi, P.; Muselli, M.; Notton, G.; Cristofari, C.; Louche, A.

    2003-01-01

    Alternative approaches for generating wind speed time series are discussed. The method utilized involves the use of an autoregressive process model. The model has been applied to three Mediterranean sites in Corsica and has been used to generate 3-hourly synthetic time series for these considered sites. The synthetic time series have been examined to determine their ability to preserve the statistical properties of the Corsican wind speed time series. In this context, using the main statistical characteristics of the wind speed (mean, variance, probability distribution, autocorrelation function), the data simulated are compared to experimental ones in order to check whether the wind speed behavior was correctly reproduced over the studied periods. The purpose is to create a data generator in order to construct a reference year for wind systems simulation in Corsica

  11. Overall control strategy of variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, Anca D.; Soerensen, Poul [Risoe National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark). Wind Energy Dept.; Iov, Florin; Blaabjerg, Frede [Aalborg Univ. (Denmark). Inst. of Energy Technology

    2004-07-01

    The variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine is today the most widely used concept. The paper presents an overall control system of the variable speed DFIG wind turbine, with focus on the control strategies and algorithms applied at each hierarchical control level of the wind turbine. The present control method is designed for normal continuous operations. The strongest feature of the implemented control method is that it allows the turbine to operate with the optimum power efficiency over a wider range of wind speeds. The variable speed/variable pitch wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator is implemented in the dynamic power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. Simulation results are performed and analyzed in different normal operating conditions.

  12. High wind speeds prevent formation of a distinct bacterioneuston community in the sea-surface microlayer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahlff, Janina; Stolle, Christian; Giebel, Helge-Ansgar; Brinkhoff, Thorsten; Ribas-Ribas, Mariana; Hodapp, Dorothee; Wurl, Oliver

    2017-05-01

    The sea-surface microlayer (SML) at the boundary between atmosphere and hydrosphere represents a demanding habitat for bacteria. Wind speed is a crucial but poorly studied factor for its physical integrity. Increasing atmospheric burden of CO2, as suggested for future climate scenarios, may particularly act on this habitat at the air-sea interface. We investigated the effect of increasing wind speeds and different pCO2 levels on SML microbial communities in a wind-wave tunnel, which offered the advantage of low spatial and temporal variability. We found that enrichment of bacteria in the SML occurred solely at a U10 wind speed of ≤5.6 m s-1 in the tunnel and ≤4.1 m s-1 in the Baltic Sea. High pCO2 levels further intensified the bacterial enrichment in the SML during low wind speed. In addition, low wind speed and pCO2 induced the formation of a distinctive bacterial community as revealed by 16S rRNA gene fingerprints and influenced the presence or absence of individual taxonomic units within the SML. We conclude that physical stability of the SML below a system-specific wind speed threshold induces specific bacterial communities in the SML entailing strong implications for ecosystem functioning by wind-driven impacts on habitat properties, gas exchange and matter cycling processes. © FEMS 2017.

  13. Stability Augmentation of Wind Farm using Variable Speed Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosyadi, Marwan; Muyeen, S. M.; Takahashi, Rion; Tamura, Junji

    This paper presents a new control strategy of variable speed permanent magnet wind generator for stability augmentation of wind farm including fixed speed wind turbine with Induction Generator (IG). A new control scheme is developed for two levels back-to-back converters of Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator (PMSG), by which both active and reactive powers delivered to the grid can be controlled easily. To avoid the converter damage, the DC link protection controller is also proposed in order to protect the dc link circuit during fault condition. To evaluate the control capability of the proposed controllers, simulations are performed on two model systems composed of wind farms connected to an infinite bus. From transient and steady state analyses by using PSCAD/EMTDC, it is concluded that the proposed control scheme is very effective to improve the stability of wind farm for severe network disturbance and randomly fluctuating wind speed.

  14. Time series analysis of wind speed using VAR and the generalized impulse response technique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ewing, Bradley T. [Area of Information Systems and Quantitative Sciences, Rawls College of Business and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409-2101 (United States); Kruse, Jamie Brown [Center for Natural Hazard Research, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC (United States); Schroeder, John L. [Department of Geosciences and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States); Smith, Douglas A. [Department of Civil Engineering and Wind Science and Engineering Research Center, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX (United States)

    2007-03-15

    This research examines the interdependence in time series wind speed data measured in the same location at four different heights. A multiple-equation system known as a vector autoregression is proposed for characterizing the time series dynamics of wind. Additionally, the recently developed method of generalized impulse response analysis provides insight into the cross-effects of the wind series and their responses to shocks. Findings are based on analysis of contemporaneous wind speed time histories taken at 13, 33, 70 and 160 ft above ground level with a sampling rate of 10 Hz. The results indicate that wind speeds measured at 70 ft was the most variable. Further, the turbulence persisted longer at the 70-ft measurement than at the other heights. The greatest interdependence is observed at 13 ft. Gusts at 160 ft led to the greatest persistence to an 'own' shock and led to greatest persistence in the responses of the other wind series. (author)

  15. Accounting for the speed shear in wind turbine power performance measurement

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Rozenn

    the vertical wind shear and the turbulence intensity. The work presented in this thesis consists of the description and the investigation of a simple method to account for the wind speed shear in the power performance measurement. Ignoring this effect was shown to result in a power curve dependant on the shear...... for turbulence intensity suggested by Albers. The second method was found to be more suitable for normalising the power curve for the turbulence intensity. Using the equivalent wind speed accounting for the wind shear in the power performance measurement was shown to result in a more repeatable power curve than......The power curve of a wind turbine is the primary characteristic of the machine as it is the basis of the warranty for it power production. The current IEC standard for power performance measurement only requires the measurement of the wind speed at hub height and the air density to characterise...

  16. Neuron-Adaptive PID Based Speed Control of SCSG Wind Turbine System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shan Zuo

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In searching for methods to increase the power capacity of wind power generation system, superconducting synchronous generator (SCSG has appeared to be an attractive candidate to develop large-scale wind turbine due to its high energy density and unprecedented advantages in weight and size. In this paper, a high-temperature superconducting technology based large-scale wind turbine is considered and its physical structure and characteristics are analyzed. A simple yet effective single neuron-adaptive PID control scheme with Delta learning mechanism is proposed for the speed control of SCSG based wind power system, in which the RBF neural network (NN is employed to estimate the uncertain but continuous functions. Compared with the conventional PID control method, the simulation results of the proposed approach show a better performance in tracking the wind speed and maintaining a stable tip-speed ratio, therefore, achieving the maximum wind energy utilization.

  17. Variable speed wind turbine generator system with current controlled voltage source inverter

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muyeen, S.M.; Al-Durra, Ahmed; Tamura, J.

    2011-01-01

    highlights: → Current controlled voltage source inverter scheme for wind power application. → Low voltage ride through of wind farm. → Variable speed wind turbine driven permanent magnet synchronous generator-operation and control. -- Abstract: The present popular trend of wind power generation is to use variable speed wind turbine (VSWT) driving a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), wound field synchronous generator (WFSG) or permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG). Among them, stability analyses of DFIG type of VSWT have already been reported in many literatures. However, transient stability and low voltage ride through (LVRT) characteristics analyses for synchronous generator type of VSWT is not sufficient enough. This paper focuses on detailed LVRT characteristic analysis of variable speed wind turbine driving a PMSG (VSWT-PMSG) with current controlled voltage source inverter (CC-VSI). Modeling and suitable control strategies for overall system are developed to augment the low voltage ride through capability of variable speed wind generator, considering recent wind farm grid code. Both symmetrical and unsymmetrical faults are analyzed as network disturbances in this paper. The permanent fault due to unsuccessful reclosing of circuit breakers is taken into consideration, which is a salient feature of this study. Moreover, the dynamic characteristic is analyzed using real wind speed data measured in Hokkaido Island, Japan. The proposed control scheme is simulated by using the standard power system simulation package PSCAD/EMTDC and results are verified by comparing that of voltage controlled voltage source inverter scheme available in power system literature.

  18. Variable speed wind turbine generator system with current controlled voltage source inverter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muyeen, S.M., E-mail: muyeen0809@yahoo.co [Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Petroleum Institute, P.O. Box 2533, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates); Al-Durra, Ahmed [Dept. of Electrical Engineering, The Petroleum Institute, P.O. Box 2533, Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates); Tamura, J. [Dept. of EEE, Kitami Institute of Technology, 165 Koen-cho, Kitami 090-8507 (Japan)

    2011-07-15

    highlights: {yields} Current controlled voltage source inverter scheme for wind power application. {yields} Low voltage ride through of wind farm. {yields} Variable speed wind turbine driven permanent magnet synchronous generator-operation and control. -- Abstract: The present popular trend of wind power generation is to use variable speed wind turbine (VSWT) driving a doubly fed induction generator (DFIG), wound field synchronous generator (WFSG) or permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG). Among them, stability analyses of DFIG type of VSWT have already been reported in many literatures. However, transient stability and low voltage ride through (LVRT) characteristics analyses for synchronous generator type of VSWT is not sufficient enough. This paper focuses on detailed LVRT characteristic analysis of variable speed wind turbine driving a PMSG (VSWT-PMSG) with current controlled voltage source inverter (CC-VSI). Modeling and suitable control strategies for overall system are developed to augment the low voltage ride through capability of variable speed wind generator, considering recent wind farm grid code. Both symmetrical and unsymmetrical faults are analyzed as network disturbances in this paper. The permanent fault due to unsuccessful reclosing of circuit breakers is taken into consideration, which is a salient feature of this study. Moreover, the dynamic characteristic is analyzed using real wind speed data measured in Hokkaido Island, Japan. The proposed control scheme is simulated by using the standard power system simulation package PSCAD/EMTDC and results are verified by comparing that of voltage controlled voltage source inverter scheme available in power system literature.

  19. Estimation of turbulence intensity using rotor effective wind speed in Lillgrund and Horns Rev-I offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gögmen, Tuhfe; Giebel, Gregor

    2016-01-01

    varies over the extent of the wind farm. This paper describes a method to estimate the TI at individual turbine locations by using the rotor effective wind speed calculated via high frequency turbine data. The method is applied to Lillgrund and Horns Rev-I offshore wind farms and the results are compared...... with TI derived from the meteorological mast, nacelle mounted anemometer on the turbines and estimation based on the standard deviation of power. The results show that the proposed TI estimation method is in the best agreement with the meteorological mast. Therefore, the rotor effective wind speed...... is shown to be applicable for the TI assessment in real-time wind farm calculations under different operational conditions. Furthermore, the TI in the wake is seen to follow the same trend with the estimated wake deficit which enables to quantify the turbulence in terms of the wake loss locally inside...

  20. Mitigating the negative impacts of tall wind turbines on bats: Vertical activity profiles and relationships to wind speed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wellig, Sascha D; Nusslé, Sébastien; Miltner, Daniela; Kohle, Oliver; Glaizot, Olivier; Braunisch, Veronika; Obrist, Martin K; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2018-01-01

    Wind turbines represent a source of hazard for bats, especially through collision with rotor blades. With increasing technical development, tall turbines (rotor-swept zone 50-150 m above ground level) are becoming widespread, yet we lack quantitative information about species active at these heights, which impedes proposing targeted mitigation recommendations for bat-friendly turbine operation. We investigated vertical activity profiles of a bat assemblage, and their relationships to wind speed, within a major valley of the European Alps where tall wind turbines are being deployed. To monitor bat activity we installed automatic recorders at sequentially increasing heights from ground level up to 65 m, with the goal to determine species-specific vertical activity profiles and to link them to wind speed. Bat call sequences were analysed with an automatic algorithm, paying particular attention to mouse-eared bats (Myotis myotis and Myotis blythii) and the European free-tailed bat (Tadarida teniotis), three locally rare species. The most often recorded bats were the Common pipistrelle (Pipistrellus pipistrellus) and Savi's pipistrelle (Hypsugo savii). Mouse-eared bats were rarely recorded, and mostly just above ground, appearing out of risk of collision. T. teniotis had a more evenly distributed vertical activity profile, often being active at rotor level, but its activity at that height ceased above 5 ms-1 wind speed. Overall bat activity in the rotor-swept zone declined with increasing wind speed, dropping below 5% above 5.4 ms-1. Collision risk could be drastically reduced if nocturnal operation of tall wind turbines would be restricted to wind speeds above 5 ms-1. Such measure should be implemented year-round because T. teniotis remains active in winter. This operational restriction is likely to cause only small energy production losses at these tall wind turbines, although further analyses are needed to assess these losses precisely.

  1. Short-term memory across eye blinks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, David E

    2014-01-01

    The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

  2. A possible recovery of the near-surface wind speed in Eastern China during winter after 2000 and the potential causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zha, Jinlin; Wu, Jian; Zhao, Deming; Tang, Jianping

    2018-04-01

    A lasting decrease in the near-surface wind speed (SWS) in China has been revealed, but a following short-term strengthening in the SWS was rarely noted. In this paper, the daily mean SWS observed datasets from 328 measurement stations in Eastern China during the period 1981-2011 were used to investigate the facts and causes of the observed short-term strengthening in winter SWS in recent decades. The major results are summarized as follows: the SWS showed a significant decrease in the last 30 years, but a short-term strengthening in SWS was observed during the winter since 2000 in Eastern China. The SWS in Eastern China showed a significant decrease of - 0.11 m s-1 decade-1 from 1981 to 1999, followed by a weak increase of 0.0008 m s-1 decade-1 from 2000 to 2011. The short-term strengthening in the SWS since 2000 was mainly induced by the changes of the pressure-gradient force (PGF), which could be attributed to the changes of the sea-level pressure (SLP) in the region (51°-69.75° N, 51.75°-111.75° E). Furthermore, the changes of the PGF during the two periods of 1981-1999 and 2000-2011 were consistent with those of the SLP in the region (51°-69.75° N, 51.75°-111.75° E). The correlation coefficient between PGF and SLP was 0.32 and 0.66 during the period 1981-1999 and 2000-2011, respectively. Therefore, the effects of the changes in SLP over the region (51°-69.75° N, 51.75°-111.75° E) on changes of SWS in the Eastern China should be significant.

  3. Self-Powered Wind Sensor System for Detecting Wind Speed and Direction Based on a Triboelectric Nanogenerator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jiyu; Ding, Wenbo; Pan, Lun; Wu, Changsheng; Yu, Hua; Yang, Lijun; Liao, Ruijin; Wang, Zhong Lin

    2018-04-24

    The development of the Internet of Things has brought new challenges to the corresponding distributed sensor systems. Self-powered sensors that can perceive and respond to environmental stimuli without an external power supply are highly desirable. In this paper, a self-powered wind sensor system based on an anemometer triboelectric nanogenerator (a-TENG, free-standing mode) and a wind vane triboelectric nanogenerator (v-TENG, single-electrode mode) is proposed for simultaneously detecting wind speed and direction. A soft friction mode is adopted instead of a typical rigid friction for largely enhancing the output performance of the TENG. The design parameters including size, unit central angle, and applied materials are optimized to enhance sensitivity, resolution, and wide measurement scale. The optimized a-TENG could deliver an open-circuit voltage of 88 V and short-circuit current of 6.3 μA, corresponding to a maximum power output of 0.47 mW (wind speed of 6.0 m/s), which is capable of driving electronics for data transmission and storage. The current peak value of the a-TENG signal is used for analyzing wind speed for less energy consumption. Moreover, the output characteristics of a v-TENG are further explored, with six actual operation situations, and the v-TENG delivers fast response to the incoming wind and accurately outputs the wind direction data. As a wind sensor system, wind speed ranging from 2.7 to 8.0 m/s can be well detected (consistent with a commercial sensor) and eight regular directions can be monitored. Therefore, the fabricated wind sensor system has great potential in wireless environmental monitoring applications.

  4. LIDAR wind speed measurements from a rotating spinner (SpinnerEx 2009)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Angelou, Nikolas; Mikkelsen, Torben; Hansen, Kasper Hjorth

    spinner of a MW-sized wind turbine, and investigate the approaching wind fields from this vantage point. Time series of wind speed measurements from the lidar with 50 Hz sampling rate were successfully obtained for approximately 60 days, during the measurement campaign lasting from April to August 2009....... In this report, information is given regarding the experimental setup and the lidar’s operation parameters. The geometrical model used for the reconstruction of the scanning pattern of the lidar is described. This model takes into account the lidar’s pointing direction, the spinner axis’s vertical tilt...... and the wind turbine’s yaw relative to the mean wind speed direction. The data analysis processes are documented. A methodology for the calculation of the yaw misalignment of the wind turbine relative to the wind direction, as a function of various averaging times, is proposed, using the lidar’s instantaneous...

  5. Control design for a pitch-regulated, variable speed wind turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, M.H.; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Larsen, Torben J.

    2005-01-01

    The three different controller designs presented herein are similar and all based on PI-regulation of rotor speed and power through the collective blade pitch angle and generator moment. The aeroelastic and electrical modelling used for the time-domainanalysis of these controllers are however...... different, which makes a directly quantitative comparison difficult. But there are some observations of similar behaviours should be mentioned: • Very similar step responses in rotor speed, pitch angle, and powerare seen for simulations with steps in wind speed. • All controllers show a peak in power...... for wind speed step-up over rated wind speed, which can be almost removed by changing the parameters of the frequency converter. • Responses of rotor speed, pitchangle, and power for different simulations with turbulent inflow are similar for all three controllers. Again, there seems to be an advantage...

  6. De-trending of wind speed variance based on first-order and second-order statistical moments only

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Hansen, Kurt Schaldemose

    2014-01-01

    The lack of efficient methods for de-trending of wind speed resource data may lead to erroneous wind turbine fatigue and ultimate load predictions. The present paper presents two models, which quantify the effect of an assumed linear trend on wind speed standard deviations as based on available...... statistical data only. The first model is a pure time series analysis approach, which quantifies the effect of non-stationary characteristics of ensemble mean wind speeds on the estimated wind speed standard deviations as based on mean wind speed statistics only. This model is applicable to statistics...... of arbitrary types of time series. The second model uses the full set of information and includes thus additionally observed wind speed standard deviations to estimate the effect of ensemble mean non-stationarities on wind speed standard deviations. This model takes advantage of a simple physical relationship...

  7. Dependence of the maximum power and wind speed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentiu Deliu

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The issue paper is to present renewable energy sources insisting mainly on wind energy. This source is analyzed in the context of Romania in particular and the EU in general. A turbine with horizontal axis is usually coupled with vessel power systems. Wind energy knows an increased growth rate. At the end of the paper are presented possible structure of coupled a wind to power systems.

  8. Using wind speed from a blade-mounted flow sensor for power and load assessment on modern wind turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. M. Pedersen

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an alternative method to evaluate power performance and loads on wind turbines using a blade-mounted flow sensor is investigated. The hypothesis is that the wind speed measured at the blades has a high correlation with the power and loads such that a power or load assessment can be performed from a few hours or days of measurements.In the present study a blade-mounted five-hole pitot tube is used as the flow sensor as an alternative to the conventional approach, where the reference wind speed is either measured at a nearby met mast or on the nacelle using lidar technology or cup anemometers. From the flow sensor measurements, an accurate estimate of the wind speed at the rotor plane can be obtained. This wind speed is disturbed by the presence of the wind turbine, and it is therefore different from the free-flow wind speed. However, the recorded wind speed has a high correlation with the actual power production as well as the flap-wise loads as it is measured close to the blade where the aerodynamic forces are acting.Conventional power curves are based on at least 180 h of 10 min mean values, but using the blade-mounted flow sensor both the observation average time and the overall assessment time can potentially be shortened. The basis for this hypothesis is that the sensor is able to provide more observations with higher accuracy, as the sensor follows the rotation of the rotor and because of the high correlation between the flow at the blades and the power production. This is the research question addressed in this paper.The method is first tested using aeroelastic simulations where the dependence of the radial position and effect of multiple blade-mounted flow sensors are also investigated. Next the method is evaluated on the basis of full-scale measurements on a pitch-regulated, variable-speed 3.6 MW wind turbine.It is concluded that the wind speed derived from the blade-mounted flow sensor is highly correlated with the

  9. Four wind speed multi-step forecasting models using extreme learning machines and signal decomposing algorithms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Hui; Tian, Hong-qi; Li, Yan-fei

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid architecture is proposed for the wind speed forecasting. • Four algorithms are used for the wind speed multi-scale decomposition. • The extreme learning machines are employed for the wind speed forecasting. • All the proposed hybrid models can generate the accurate results. - Abstract: Realization of accurate wind speed forecasting is important to guarantee the safety of wind power utilization. In this paper, a new hybrid forecasting architecture is proposed to realize the wind speed accurate forecasting. In this architecture, four different hybrid models are presented by combining four signal decomposing algorithms (e.g., Wavelet Decomposition/Wavelet Packet Decomposition/Empirical Mode Decomposition/Fast Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition) and Extreme Learning Machines. The originality of the study is to investigate the promoted percentages of the Extreme Learning Machines by those mainstream signal decomposing algorithms in the multiple step wind speed forecasting. The results of two forecasting experiments indicate that: (1) the method of Extreme Learning Machines is suitable for the wind speed forecasting; (2) by utilizing the decomposing algorithms, all the proposed hybrid algorithms have better performance than the single Extreme Learning Machines; (3) in the comparisons of the decomposing algorithms in the proposed hybrid architecture, the Fast Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition has the best performance in the three-step forecasting results while the Wavelet Packet Decomposition has the best performance in the one and two step forecasting results. At the same time, the Wavelet Packet Decomposition and the Fast Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition are better than the Wavelet Decomposition and the Empirical Mode Decomposition in all the step predictions, respectively; and (4) the proposed algorithms are effective in the wind speed accurate predictions

  10. Estimation of wind speeds inside Super Typhoon Nepartak from AMSR2 low-frequency brightness temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lei; Yin, Xiaobin; Shi, Hanqing; Wang, Zhenzhan; Xu, Qing

    2018-04-01

    Accurate estimations of typhoon-level winds are highly desired over the western Pacific Ocean. A wind speed retrieval algorithm is used to retrieve the wind speeds within Super Typhoon Nepartak (2016) using 6.9- and 10.7-GHz brightness temperatures from the Japanese Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sensor on board the Global Change Observation Mission-Water 1 (GCOM-W1) satellite. The results show that the retrieved wind speeds clearly represent the intensification process of Super Typhoon Nepartak. A good agreement is found between the retrieved wind speeds and the Soil Moisture Active Passive wind speed product. The mean bias is 0.51 m/s, and the root-mean-square difference is 1.93 m/s between them. The retrieved maximum wind speeds are 59.6 m/s at 04:45 UTC on July 6 and 71.3 m/s at 16:58 UTC on July 6. The two results demonstrate good agreement with the results reported by the China Meteorological Administration and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. In addition, Feng-Yun 2G (FY-2G) satellite infrared images, Feng-Yun 3C (FY-3C) microwave atmospheric sounder data, and AMSR2 brightness temperature images are also used to describe the development and structure of Super Typhoon Nepartak.

  11. Control of variable speed wind turbines with doubly-fed induction generators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A.D.; Soerensen, P.; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2005-07-01

    The paper presents an overall control method for variable speed pitch controlled wind turbines with doubly-fed induction generators (DFIG). Emphasis is on control strategies and algorithms applied at each hierarchical control level of the wind turbine. The objectives of the control system are: 1) to control the power drawn from the wind turbine in order to track the wind turbine maximum power operation point, 2) to limit the power in case of large wind speeds, and 3) to control the reactive power interchanged between the wind turbine generator and the grid. The present control method is designed for normal continuous operations. The strongest feature of the implemented control method is that it allows the turbine to operate with the optimum power efficiency over a wide range of wind speeds. The model of the variable speed, variable pitch wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator is implemented in the dynamic power system simulation tool DlgSILENT PowerFactory which allows investigation of the dynamic performance of grid-connected wind turbines within realistic electrical grid models. Simulation results are presented and analysed in different normal operating conditions. (author)

  12. Power Maximization Control of Variable Speed Wind Generation System Using Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morimoto, Shigeo; Nakamura, Tomohiko; Takeda, Yoji

    This paper proposes the sensorless output power maximization control of the wind generation system. A permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) is used as a variable speed generator in the proposed system. The generator torque is suitably controlled according to the generator speed and thus the power from a wind turbine settles down on the maximum power point by the proposed MPPT control method, where the information of wind velocity is not required. Moreover, the maximum available generated power is obtained by the optimum current vector control. The current vector of PMSG is optimally controlled according to the generator speed and the required torque in order to minimize the losses of PMSG considering the voltage and current constraints. The proposed wind power generation system can be achieved without mechanical sensors such as a wind velocity detector and a position sensor. Several experimental results show the effectiveness of the proposed control method.

  13. Flicker Study on Variable Speed Wind Turbines with Permanent Magnet Synchronous Generator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Wang, Yue

    2008-01-01

    capacity, grid impedance angle) are analyzed. Flicker mitigation is realized by output reactive power control of the variable speed wind turbines with PMSG. Simulation results show the output reactive power control is an effective measure to mitigate the flicker during continuous operation of grid......Grid connected wind turbines are fluctuating power sources that may produce flicker during continuous operation. This paper presents a simulation model of a MW-level variable speed wind turbines with a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) and a full-scale converter developed...... in the simulation tool of PSCAD/EMTDC. Flicker emission of this system is investigated during continuous operation. The dependence of flicker emission on wind characteristics (mean speed, turbulence intensity), 3p torque oscillations due to wind shear and tower shadow effects and grid conditions (short circuit...

  14. EU-NORSEWIND - Delivering Offshore Wind Speed Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Oldroyd, Andy; Hasager, Charlotte Bay; Stickland, M.T.

    Offshore wind is the major growth area in the wind industry sector today, with a host of large projects being announced and innovative approaches being proposed. However, with all this investment and innovation there remains a key, fundamental missing element - a thorough understanding...

  15. Ensemble standar deviation of wind speed and direction of the FDDA input to WRF

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — NetCDF file of the SREF standard deviation of wind speed and direction that was used to inject variability in the FDDA input. variable U_NDG_OLD contains standard...

  16. Some design aspects of high-speed vertical-axis wind turbines

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Templin, R. J; South, P

    1977-01-01

    ... (rotor height to diameter ratio, solidity, number of blades, etc.) for high-speed vertical-axis wind turbines from kilowatt to megawatt sizes and shows that very large turbines are theoretically feasible...

  17. Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

    1997-01-01

    We have examined the ISEE 3 distant tail data during three intense magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high-speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms.

  18. (abstract) The Distant Tail Behavior During High Speed Solar Wind Streams and Magnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, C. M.; Tsurutani, B. T.

    1996-01-01

    We have examined the ISEE-3 distant tail data during three intense magnetic storms and have identified the tail response to high speed solar wind streams, interplanetary magnetic clouds, and near-Earth storms.

  19. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  20. Visual Short-Term Memory Complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    Several recent studies have explored the nature and limits of visual short-term memory (VSTM) (e.g. Luck & Vogel, 1997). A general VSTM capacity limit of about 3 to 4 letters has been found, thus confirming results from earlier studies (e.g. Cattell, 1885; Sperling, 1960). However, Alvarez...

  1. Optimal day-ahead wind-thermal unit commitment considering statistical and predicted features of wind speeds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Yanan; Dong, Jizhe; Ding, Lijuan

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A day–ahead wind–thermal unit commitment model is presented. • Wind speed transfer matrix is formed to depict the sequential wind features. • Spinning reserve setting considering wind power accuracy and variation is proposed. • Verified study is performed to check the correctness of the program. - Abstract: The increasing penetration of intermittent wind power affects the secure operation of power systems and leads to a requirement of robust and economic generation scheduling. This paper presents an optimal day–ahead wind–thermal generation scheduling method that considers the statistical and predicted features of wind speeds. In this method, the statistical analysis of historical wind data, which represents the local wind regime, is first implemented. Then, according to the statistical results and the predicted wind power, the spinning reserve requirements for the scheduling period are calculated. Based on the calculated spinning reserve requirements, the wind–thermal generation scheduling is finally conducted. To validate the program, a verified study is performed on a test system. Then, numerical studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method are conducted.

  2. An Adaptive Frequency Strategy for Variable Speed Wind Turbines: Application to High Wind Integration Into Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Fernández-Guillamón

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new frequency controller for variable speed wind turbines connected to the grid under power imbalance conditions. It is based on the fast power reserve emulation technique, having two different operation modes: overproduction and recovery mode. In the first mode, the active power provided by wind turbines is set over the mechanical power, reducing their rotational speed. This overproduction power is estimated according to the frequency excursion. In the second mode, the active power is established under the mechanical power to recover the initial rotational speed through a smooth trajectory. The power system considered for simulation purposes includes thermal, hydro-power and wind-power plants. The controller proposed has been evaluated under different mix-generation scenarios implemented in Matlab/Simulink. Extensive results and comparison to previous proposals are also included in the paper.

  3. A New Structure Based on Cascaded Multilevel Converter for Variable Speed Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Fujin; Chen, Zhe

    2010-01-01

    An alternative structure for variable speed wind turbine, using multiple permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSGs) drive-train configuration and cascaded multilevel converter is proposed in this paper. This study presents a power electronic solution for the wind turbine. A transformer......-less cascaded multilevel converter interface based on PMSGs is developed to synthesize a desired high ac sinusoidal output voltage. The benefits of high power and high ac voltage make this structure possible to be applied in the wind power generation. In addition, the bulky transformer could be omitted....... A simulation model of 10 MW variable speed wind turbine based on PMSGs developed in PSCAD/EMTDC is presented. The dynamic performance of grid-connected wind turbine is analyzed. Simulation results shows that the proposed structure may be attractive in wind power generation....

  4. Voltage sag influence on fatigue life of the drivetrain of fixed speed wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Veluri, Badrinath; Santos-Martin, David; Jensen, Henrik Myhre

    2011-01-01

    Occurrence of voltage sags due to electrical grid faults and other network disturbances generate transients of the generator electromagnetic torque which result in significant high stresses and noticeable vibrations for the wind turbine mechanical system and may also have a detrimental effect...... on the fatigue life of important drivetrain components. The high penetration of wind energy in the electrical grids demands new requirements for the operation of wind energy conversion systems. Although fixed speed wind turbine technology is nowadays replaced by variable speed wind turbines. In some countries...... by the stator flux oscillations which cause high transients of the generator electromagnetic torque. This paper focuses in estimating the resulting significant stresses transients due to the electromagnetic torque transients, which transmits to the wind turbine mechanical system that may have a detrimental...

  5. Estimation of the high-spatial-resolution variability in extreme wind speeds for forestry applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Venäläinen

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The bioeconomy has an increasing role to play in climate change mitigation and the sustainable development of national economies. In Finland, a forested country, over 50 % of the current bioeconomy relies on the sustainable management and utilization of forest resources. Wind storms are a major risk that forests are exposed to and high-spatial-resolution analysis of the most vulnerable locations can produce risk assessment of forest management planning. In this paper, we examine the feasibility of the wind multiplier approach for downscaling of maximum wind speed, using 20 m spatial resolution CORINE land-use dataset and high-resolution digital elevation data. A coarse spatial resolution estimate of the 10-year return level of maximum wind speed was obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalyzed data. Using a geospatial re-mapping technique the data were downscaled to 26 meteorological station locations to represent very diverse environments. Applying a comparison, we find that the downscaled 10-year return levels represent 66 % of the observed variation among the stations examined. In addition, the spatial variation in wind-multiplier-downscaled 10-year return level wind was compared with the WAsP model-simulated wind. The heterogeneous test area was situated in northern Finland, and it was found that the major features of the spatial variation were similar, but in some locations, there were relatively large differences. The results indicate that the wind multiplier method offers a pragmatic and computationally feasible tool for identifying at a high spatial resolution those locations with the highest forest wind damage risks. It can also be used to provide the necessary wind climate information for wind damage risk model calculations, thus making it possible to estimate the probability of predicted threshold wind speeds for wind damage and consequently the probability (and amount of wind damage for certain forest stand configurations.

  6. Comprehensive evaluation of wind speed distribution models: A case study for North Dakota sites

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Junyi; Erdem, Ergin; Li Gong; Shi Jing

    2010-01-01

    Accurate analysis of long term wind data is critical to the estimation of wind energy potential for a candidate location and its nearby area. Investigating the wind speed distribution is one critical task for this purpose. This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation on probability density functions for the wind speed data from five representative sites in North Dakota. Besides the popular Weibull and Rayleigh distributions, we also include other distributions such as gamma, lognormal, inverse Gaussian, and maximum entropy principle (MEP) derived probability density functions (PDFs). Six goodness-of-fit (GOF) statistics are used to determine the appropriate distributions for the wind speed data for each site. It is found that no particular distribution outperforms others for all five sites, while Rayleigh distribution performs poorly for most of the sites. Similar to other models, the performances of MEP-derived PDFs in fitting wind speed data varies from site to site. Also, the results demonstrate that MEP-derived PDFs are flexible and have the potential to capture other possible distribution patterns of wind speed data. Meanwhile, different GOF statistics may generate inconsistent ranking orders of fit performance among the candidate PDFs. In addition, one comprehensive metric that combines all individual statistics is proposed to rank the overall performance for the chosen statistical distributions.

  7. Latitude dependence of the solar wind speed: Influence of the coronal magnetic field geometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pneuman, G.W.

    1976-01-01

    The dependence of solar wind speed on latitude as influenced by the magnetic field configuration of the inner corona is studied. It is found that in general, a dipolelike field geometry characteristic of a minimum-type corona tends to produce a solar wind speed distribution which increases with heliographic latitude, in accordance with observations. At very high coronal base densities and temperatures, however, this effect is minimal or even inverted. Physically, the field affects the wind speed through its area divergence, a larger divergence resulting in correspondingly lower speeds. During solar minimum, eclipse photographs suggest that the field divergence increases from pole to equator, a characteristic not apparent during solar maximum. Hence we expect the latitudinal increase in speed to be most pronounced at the minimum phase of solar activity

  8. A novel application of artificial neural network for wind speed estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Da; Wang, Jianzhou

    2017-05-01

    Providing accurate multi-steps wind speed estimation models has increasing significance, because of the important technical and economic impacts of wind speed on power grid security and environment benefits. In this study, the combined strategies for wind speed forecasting are proposed based on an intelligent data processing system using artificial neural network (ANN). Generalized regression neural network and Elman neural network are employed to form two hybrid models. The approach employs one of ANN to model the samples achieving data denoising and assimilation and apply the other to predict wind speed using the pre-processed samples. The proposed method is demonstrated in terms of the predicting improvements of the hybrid models compared with single ANN and the typical forecasting method. To give sufficient cases for the study, four observation sites with monthly average wind speed of four given years in Western China were used to test the models. Multiple evaluation methods demonstrated that the proposed method provides a promising alternative technique in monthly average wind speed estimation.

  9. Estimate of Hurricane Wind Speed from AMSR-E Low-Frequency Channel Brightness Temperature Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lei Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Two new parameters (W6H and W6V were defined that represent brightness temperature increments for different low-frequency channels due to ocean wind. We developed a new wind speed retrieval model inside hurricanes based on W6H and W6V using brightness temperature data from AMSR-E. The AMSR-E observations of 12 category 3–5 hurricanes from 2003 to 2011 and corresponding data from the H*wind analysis system were used to develop and validate the AMSR-E wind speed retrieval model. The results show that the mean bias and the overall root-mean-square (RMS difference of the AMSR-E retrieved wind speeds with respect to H*wind (HRD Real-time Hurricane Wind Analysis System analysis data were −0.01 m/s and 2.66 m/s, respectively. One case study showed that W6H and W6V were less sensitive to rain than the observed AMSR-E C-band and X-band brightness temperature data. The AMSR-E retrieval model was further validated by comparing the retrieved wind speeds against stepped-frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR measurements. The comparison showed an RMS difference of 3.41 m/s and a mean bias of 0.49 m/s.

  10. Universal Generating Function Based Probabilistic Production Simulation Approach Considering Wind Speed Correlation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Li

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Due to the volatile and correlated nature of wind speed, a high share of wind power penetration poses challenges to power system production simulation. Existing power system probabilistic production simulation approaches are in short of considering the time-varying characteristics of wind power and load, as well as the correlation between wind speeds at the same time, which brings about some problems in planning and analysis for the power system with high wind power penetration. Based on universal generating function (UGF, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic production simulation approach considering wind speed correlation. UGF is utilized to develop the chronological models of wind power that characterizes wind speed correlation simultaneously, as well as the chronological models of conventional generation sources and load. The supply and demand are matched chronologically to not only obtain generation schedules, but also reliability indices both at each simulation interval and the whole period. The proposed approach has been tested on the improved IEEE-RTS 79 test system and is compared with the Monte Carlo approach and the sequence operation theory approach. The results verified the proposed approach with the merits of computation simplicity and accuracy.

  11. The effects of disjunct sampling and averaging time on maximum mean wind speeds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Mann, J.

    2006-01-01

    Conventionally, the 50-year wind is calculated on basis of the annual maxima of consecutive 10-min averages. Very often, however, the averages are saved with a temporal spacing of several hours. We call it disjunct sampling. It may also happen that the wind speeds are averaged over a longer time...

  12. Ocean's response to Hurricane Frances and its implications for drag coefficient parameterization at high wind speeds

    KAUST Repository

    Zedler, S. E.; Niiler, P. P.; Stammer, D.; Terrill, E.; Morzel, J.

    2009-01-01

    with realistic stratification and forcing fields representing Hurricane Frances, which in early September 2004 passed east of the Caribbean Leeward Island chain. The model was forced with a NOAA-HWIND wind speed product after converting it to wind stress using

  13. Dynamic Analysis of Fluid Power Drive-trains for Variable Speed Wind Turbines : A Parameter Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jarquin Laguna, A.; Diepeveen, N.F.B.

    2013-01-01

    In the pursuit of making wind energy technology more economically attractive, the application of fluid power technology for the transmission of wind energy is being developed by several parties all over the world. This paper presents a dynamic model of a fluid power transmission for variable speed

  14. How well can we measure the vertical wind speed? Implications for fluxes of energy and mass

    Science.gov (United States)

    John Kochendorfer; Tilden P. Meyers; John Frank; William J. Massman; Mark W. Heuer

    2012-01-01

    Sonic anemometers are capable of measuring the wind speed in all three dimensions at high frequencies (10­50 Hz), and are relied upon to estimate eddy-covariance-based fluxes of mass and energy over a wide variety of surfaces and ecosystems. In this study, wind-velocity measurement errors from a three-dimensional sonic anemometer with a nonorthogonal transducer...

  15. A disturbance decoupling nonlinear control law for variable speed wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Sven Creutz; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes a nonlinear control law for controlling variable speed wind turbines using feedback linearization. The novel aspect of the control law is its ability to decouple the effect of wind fluctuations. Furthermore, the transformation to feedback linearizable coordinates is chosen...

  16. Seasonal variation of Sigma sub(Theta) with wind speed, direction and stability

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Sadhuram, Y.

    For an airport site near Visakhapatnam, India, and based on 10 years of data for the months of January, April, August and October, values of Sigma sub(Theta) are given as a function of wind speed, wind direction and Pasquill diffusion category...

  17. Reduction of the performance of a noise screen due to screen-induced wind-speed gradients: numerical computations and wind-tunnel experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salomons, E.M.

    1999-01-01

    Downwind sound propagation over a noise screen is investigated by numerical computations and scale model experiments in a wind tunnel. For the computations, the parabolic equation method is used, with a range-dependent sound-speed profile based on wind-speed profiles measured in the wind tunnel and

  18. Assessment of wind speed and wind power through three stations in Egypt, including air density variation and analysis results with rough set theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Essa, K.S.M.; Embaby, M.; Marrouf, A.A.; Koza, A.M.; Abd El-Monsef, M.E.

    2007-01-01

    It is well known that the wind energy potential is proportional to both air density and the third power of the wind speed average over a suitable time period. The wind speed and air density have random variables depending on both time and location. The main objective of this work is to derive the most general wind energy potential of the wind formulation putting into consideration the time variable in both wind speed and air density. The correction factor is derived explicitly in terms of the cross-correlation and the coefficients of variation.The application is performed for environmental and wind speed measurements at the Cairo Airport, Kosseir and Hurguada, Egypt. Comparisons are made between Weibull, Rayleigh, and actual data distributions of wind speed and wind power of one year 2005. A Weibull distribution is the best match to the actual probability distribution of wind speed data for most stations. The maximum wind energy potential was 373 W/m 2 in June at Hurguada (Red Sea coast) where the annual mean value was 207 W/m 2 . By Using Rough Set Theory, We Find That the Wind Power Depends on the Wind Speed with greater than air density

  19. statistical analysis of wind speed for electrical power generation

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HOD

    sites are suitable for the generation of electrical energy. Also, the results ... Nigerian Journal of Technology (NIJOTECH). Vol. 36, No. ... parameter in the wind-power generation system. ..... [3] A. Zaharim, A. M Razali, R. Z Abidin, and K Sopian,.

  20. Comparison of Speed-Up Over Hills Derived from Wind-Tunnel Experiments, Wind-Loading Standards, and Numerical Modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safaei Pirooz, Amir A.; Flay, Richard G. J.

    2018-03-01

    We evaluate the accuracy of the speed-up provided in several wind-loading standards by comparison with wind-tunnel measurements and numerical predictions, which are carried out at a nominal scale of 1:500 and full-scale, respectively. Airflow over two- and three-dimensional bell-shaped hills is numerically modelled using the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes method with a pressure-driven atmospheric boundary layer and three different turbulence models. Investigated in detail are the effects of grid size on the speed-up and flow separation, as well as the resulting uncertainties in the numerical simulations. Good agreement is obtained between the numerical prediction of speed-up, as well as the wake region size and location, with that according to large-eddy simulations and the wind-tunnel results. The numerical results demonstrate the ability to predict the airflow over a hill with good accuracy with considerably less computational time than for large-eddy simulation. Numerical simulations for a three-dimensional hill show that the speed-up and the wake region decrease significantly when compared with the flow over two-dimensional hills due to the secondary flow around three-dimensional hills. Different hill slopes and shapes are simulated numerically to investigate the effect of hill profile on the speed-up. In comparison with more peaked hill crests, flat-topped hills have a lower speed-up at the crest up to heights of about half the hill height, for which none of the standards gives entirely satisfactory values of speed-up. Overall, the latest versions of the National Building Code of Canada and the Australian and New Zealand Standard give the best predictions of wind speed over isolated hills.

  1. Improving transition between power optimization and power limitation of variable speed/variable pitch wind turbines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A D; Bindner, H [Risoe National Lab., Wind Energy and Atmospheric Physics Dept., Roskilde (Denmark); Rebsdorf, A [Vestas Wind Systems A/S, Lem (Denmark)

    1999-03-01

    The paper summarises and describes the main results of a recently performed study of improving the transition between power optimization and power limitation for variable speed/variable pitch wind turbines. The results show that the capability of varying the generator speed also can be exploited in the transition stage to improve the quality of the generated power. (au)

  2. The thermal structure of an air–water interface at low wind speeds

    OpenAIRE

    Handler, R. A.; Smith, G. B.; Leighton, R. I.

    2011-01-01

    High-resolution infrared imagery of an air–water interface at wind speeds of 1 to 4 ms−1 wasobtained. Spectral analysis of the data reveals several important features of the thermal structureof the so-called cool skin. At wind speeds for which wind waves are not generated, the interfacialboundary layer appears to be composed of buoyant plumes that are stretched by the surfaceshear as they reach the interface. The plumes appear to form overlapping laminae with ahead–tail...

  3. Short term memory for single surface features and bindings in ageing: A replication study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isella, Valeria; Molteni, Federica; Mapelli, Cristina; Ferrarese, Carlo

    2015-06-01

    In the present study we replicated a previous experiment investigating visuo-spatial short term memory binding in young and older healthy individuals, in the attempt to verify the pattern of impairment that can be observed in normal elderly for short term memory for single items vs short term memory for bindings. Assessing a larger sample size (25 young and 25 older subjects), using a more appropriate measure of accuracy for a change detection task (A'), and adding the evaluation of speed of performance, we confirmed that old normals show a decline in short term memory for bindings of shape and colour that is of comparable extent, and not major, to the decline in memory for single shapes and single colours. The absence of a specific deficit of short term memory for conjunctions of surface features seems to distinguish cognitive ageing from Alzheimer's Disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Space-time wind speed forecasting for improved power system dispatch

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2014-02-27

    To support large-scale integration of wind power into electric energy systems, state-of-the-art wind speed forecasting methods should be able to provide accurate and adequate information to enable efficient, reliable, and cost-effective scheduling of wind power. Here, we incorporate space-time wind forecasts into electric power system scheduling. First, we propose a modified regime-switching, space-time wind speed forecasting model that allows the forecast regimes to vary with the dominant wind direction and with the seasons, hence avoiding a subjective choice of regimes. Then, results from the wind forecasts are incorporated into a power system economic dispatch model, the cost of which is used as a loss measure of the quality of the forecast models. This, in turn, leads to cost-effective scheduling of system-wide wind generation. Potential economic benefits arise from the system-wide generation of cost savings and from the ancillary service cost savings. We illustrate the economic benefits using a test system in the northwest region of the United States. Compared with persistence and autoregressive models, our model suggests that cost savings from integration of wind power could be on the scale of tens of millions of dollars annually in regions with high wind penetration, such as Texas and the Pacific northwest. © 2014 Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa.

  5. A new wind speed forecasting strategy based on the chaotic time series modelling technique and the Apriori algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Zhenhai; Chi, Dezhong; Wu, Jie; Zhang, Wenyu

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Impact of meteorological factors on wind speed forecasting is taken into account. • Forecasted wind speed results are corrected by the associated rules. • Forecasting accuracy is improved by the new wind speed forecasting strategy. • Robust of the proposed model is validated by data sampled from different sites. - Abstract: Wind energy has been the fastest growing renewable energy resource in recent years. Because of the intermittent nature of wind, wind power is a fluctuating source of electrical energy. Therefore, to minimize the impact of wind power on the electrical grid, accurate and reliable wind power forecasting is mandatory. In this paper, a new wind speed forecasting approach based on based on the chaotic time series modelling technique and the Apriori algorithm has been developed. The new approach consists of four procedures: (I) Clustering by using the k-means clustering approach; (II) Employing the Apriori algorithm to discover the association rules; (III) Forecasting the wind speed according to the chaotic time series forecasting model; and (IV) Correcting the forecasted wind speed data using the associated rules discovered previously. This procedure has been verified by 31-day-ahead daily average wind speed forecasting case studies, which employed the wind speed and other meteorological data collected from four meteorological stations located in the Hexi Corridor area of China. The results of these case studies reveal that the chaotic forecasting model can efficiently improve the accuracy of the wind speed forecasting, and the Apriori algorithm can effectively discover the association rules between the wind speed and other meteorological factors. In addition, the correction results demonstrate that the association rules discovered by the Apriori algorithm have powerful capacities in handling the forecasted wind speed values correction when the forecasted values do not match the classification discovered by the association rules

  6. Wind speed forecasting in three different regions of Mexico, using a hybrid ARIMA-ANN model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadenas, Erasmo [Facultad de Ingenieria Mecanica, Universidad Michoacana de San Nicolas de Hidalgo, Santiago Tapia No. 403, Centro (Mexico); Rivera, Wilfrido [Centro de Ivestigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Apartado Postal 34, Temixco 62580, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    In this paper the wind speed forecasting in the Isla de Cedros in Baja California, in the Cerro de la Virgen in Zacatecas and in Holbox in Quintana Roo is presented. The time series utilized are average hourly wind speed data obtained directly from the measurements realized in the different sites during about one month. In order to do wind speed forecasting Hybrid models consisting of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models were developed. The ARIMA models were first used to do the wind speed forecasting of the time series and then with the obtained errors ANN were built taking into account the nonlinear tendencies that the ARIMA technique could not identify, reducing with this the final errors. Once the Hybrid models were developed 48 data out of sample for each one of the sites were used to do the wind speed forecasting and the results were compared with the ARIMA and the ANN models working separately. Statistical error measures such as the mean error (ME), the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) were calculated to compare the three methods. The results showed that the Hybrid models predict the wind velocities with a higher accuracy than the ARIMA and ANN models in the three examined sites. (author)

  7. Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) Wind Speed Retrievals and Assessment Using Dropsondes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecil, Daniel J.; Biswas, Sayak K.

    2018-01-01

    The Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is an experimental C-band passive microwave radiometer designed to map the horizontal structure of surface wind speed fields in hurricanes. New data processing and customized retrieval approaches were developed after the 2015 Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) experiment, which featured flights over Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, Marty, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Erika. These new approaches produced maps of surface wind speed that looked more realistic than those from previous campaigns. Dropsondes from the High Definition Sounding System (HDSS) that was flown with HIRAD on a WB-57 high altitude aircraft in TCI were used to assess the quality of the HIRAD wind speed retrievals. The root mean square difference between HIRAD-retrieved surface wind speeds and dropsonde-estimated surface wind speeds was 6.0 meters per second. The largest differences between HIRAD and dropsonde winds were from data points where storm motion during dropsonde descent compromised the validity of the comparisons. Accounting for this and for uncertainty in the dropsonde measurements themselves, we estimate the root mean square error for the HIRAD retrievals as around 4.7 meters per second. Prior to the 2015 TCI experiment, HIRAD had previously flown on the WB-57 for missions across Hurricanes Gonzalo (2014), Earl (2010), and Karl (2010). Configuration of the instrument was not identical to the 2015 flights, but the methods devised after the 2015 flights may be applied to that previous data in an attempt to improve retrievals from those cases.

  8. A new hybrid model optimized by an intelligent optimization algorithm for wind speed forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, Zhongyue; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan; Zhao, Ge

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A new hybrid model is developed for wind speed forecasting. • The model is based on the Kalman filter and the ARIMA. • An intelligent optimization method is employed in the hybrid model. • The new hybrid model has good performance in western China. - Abstract: Forecasting the wind speed is indispensable in wind-related engineering studies and is important in the management of wind farms. As a technique essential for the future of clean energy systems, reducing the forecasting errors related to wind speed has always been an important research subject. In this paper, an optimized hybrid method based on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Kalman filter is proposed to forecast the daily mean wind speed in western China. This approach employs Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) as an intelligent optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of the ARIMA model, which develops a hybrid model that is best adapted to the data set, increasing the fitting accuracy and avoiding over-fitting. The proposed method is subsequently examined on the wind farms of western China, where the proposed hybrid model is shown to perform effectively and steadily

  9. DAC with LQR Control Design for Pitch Regulated Variable Speed Wind Turbine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Imran, Raja Muhammad; Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar; Soltani, Mohsen

    2014-01-01

    Disturbance Accommodation Control (DAC) is used to model and simulate a system with known disturbance waveform. This paper presents a control scheme to mitigate the effect of disturbances by using collective pitch control for the aboverated wind speed (Region III) for a variable speed wind turbine....... We have used Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) to obtain full state feedback gain, disturbance feedback gain is calculated independently and then estimator gain is achieved by poleplacement technique in the DAC augmented plant model. The reduced order model (two-mass model) of wind turbine is used...... and 5MW National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) wind turbine is used in this research. We have shown comparison of results relating to pitch angle, drive train torsion and generator speed obtained by a PID controller and DAC. Simulations are performed in MATLAB/Simulink. The results are compared...

  10. Anechoic wind tunnel tests on high-speed train bogie aerodynamic noise

    OpenAIRE

    Latorre Iglesias, E.; Thompson, D.; Smith, M.; Kitagawa, T.; Yamazaki, N.

    2016-01-01

    Aerodynamic noise becomes a significant noise source at speeds normally reached by high-speed trains. The train bogies are identified as important sources of aerodynamic noise. Due to the difficulty to assess this noise source carrying out field tests, wind tunnel tests offer many advantages. Tests were performed in the large-scale low-noise anechoic wind tunnel at Maibara, Japan, using a 1/7 scale train car and bogie model for a range of flow speeds between 50, 76, 89 and 100 m/s. The depend...

  11. Short-Term Planning of Hybrid Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knežević, Goran; Baus, Zoran; Nikolovski, Srete

    2016-07-01

    In this paper short-term planning algorithm for hybrid power system consist of different types of cascade hydropower plants (run-of-the river, pumped storage, conventional), thermal power plants (coal-fired power plants, combined cycle gas-fired power plants) and wind farms is presented. The optimization process provides a joint bid of the hybrid system, and thus making the operation schedule of hydro and thermal power plants, the operation condition of pumped-storage hydropower plants with the aim of maximizing profits on day ahead market, according to expected hourly electricity prices, the expected local water inflow in certain hydropower plants, and the expected production of electrical energy from the wind farm, taking into account previously contracted bilateral agreement for electricity generation. Optimization process is formulated as hourly-discretized mixed integer linear optimization problem. Optimization model is applied on the case study in order to show general features of the developed model.

  12. Short-term Memory of Deep RNN

    OpenAIRE

    Gallicchio, Claudio

    2018-01-01

    The extension of deep learning towards temporal data processing is gaining an increasing research interest. In this paper we investigate the properties of state dynamics developed in successive levels of deep recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in terms of short-term memory abilities. Our results reveal interesting insights that shed light on the nature of layering as a factor of RNN design. Noticeably, higher layers in a hierarchically organized RNN architecture results to be inherently biased ...

  13. Short-term LNG-markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldegard, Tom; Lund, Arne-Christian; Miltersen, Kristian; Rud, Linda

    2005-01-01

    The global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry has experienced substantial growth in the past decades. In the traditional trade patterns of LNG the product has typically been handled within a dedicated chain of plants and vessels fully committed by long term contracts or common ownership, providing risk sharing of large investments in a non-liquid market. Increasing gas prices and substantial cost reductions in all parts of the LNG chain have made LNG projects viable even if only part of the capacity is secured by long-term contracts, opening for more flexible trade of the remainder. Increasing gas demand, especially in power generation, combined with cost reductions in the cost of LNG terminals, open new markets for LNG. For the LNG supplier, the flexibility of shifting volumes between regions represents an additional value. International trade in LNG has been increasing, now accounting for more than one fifth of the world's cross-border gas trade. Despite traditional vertical chain bonds, increased flexibility has contributed in fact to an increasing LNG spot trade, representing 8% of global trade in 2002. The focus of this paper is on the development of global short-term LNG markets, and their role with respect to efficiency and security of supply in European gas markets. Arbitrage opportunities arising from price differences between regional markets (such as North America versus Europe) are important impetuses for flexible short-term trade. However, the short-term LNG trade may suffer from problems related to market access, e.g. limited access to terminals and regulatory issues, as well as rigidities connected to vertical binding within the LNG chain. Important issues related to the role of short-term LNG-trade in the European gas market are: Competition, flexibility in meeting peak demand, security of supply and consequences of differences in pricing policies (oil-linked prices in Europe and spot market prices in North America). (Author)

  14. A short-term neural network memory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, R.J.T.; Wong, W.S.

    1988-12-01

    Neural network memories with storage prescriptions based on Hebb's rule are known to collapse as more words are stored. By requiring that the most recently stored word be remembered precisely, a new simple short-term neutral network memory is obtained and its steady state capacity analyzed and simulated. Comparisons are drawn with Hopfield's method, the delta method of Widrow and Hoff, and the revised marginalist model of Mezard, Nadal, and Toulouse.

  15. LIDAR wind speed measurements from a rotating spinner (SpinnerEx 2009)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Angelou, N.; Mikkelsen, Torben; Hansen, Kasper H.; Sjoeholm, M.; Harris, M.

    2010-08-15

    In the context of the increasing application of remote sensing techniques in wind energy, the feasibility of upwind observations via a spinner-mounted wind lidar was tested during the SpinnerEx 2009 experiment. The objective was to install a QinetiQ (Natural Power) ZephIR lidar in the rotating spinner of a MW-sized wind turbine, and investigate the approaching wind fields from this vantage point. Time series of wind speed measurements from the lidar with 50 Hz sampling rate were successfully obtained for approximately 60 days, during the measurement campaign lasting from April to August 2009. In this report, information is given regarding the experimental setup and the lidar's operation parameters. The geometrical model used for the reconstruction of the scanning pattern of the lidar is described. This model takes into account the lidar's pointing direction, the spinner axis's vertical tilt and the wind turbine's yaw relative to the mean wind speed direction. The data analysis processes are documented. A methodology for the calculation of the yaw misalignment of the wind turbine relative to the wind direction, as a function of various averaging times, is proposed, using the lidar's instantaneous line-of-sight radial wind speed measurements. Two different setups have been investigated in which the approaching wind field was measured at distances of 0.58 OE and 1.24 OE rotor diameters upwind, respectively. For both setups, the instantaneous yaw misalignment of the turbine has been estimated from the lidar measurements. Data from an adjacent meteorological mast as well as data logged within the wind turbine's control system were used to evaluate the results. (author)

  16. Adaptive pitch control for variable speed wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Kathryn E [Boulder, CO; Fingersh, Lee Jay [Westminster, CO

    2012-05-08

    An adaptive method for adjusting blade pitch angle, and controllers implementing such a method, for achieving higher power coefficients. Average power coefficients are determined for first and second periods of operation for the wind turbine. When the average power coefficient for the second time period is larger than for the first, a pitch increment, which may be generated based on the power coefficients, is added (or the sign is retained) to the nominal pitch angle value for the wind turbine. When the average power coefficient for the second time period is less than for the first, the pitch increment is subtracted (or the sign is changed). A control signal is generated based on the adapted pitch angle value and sent to blade pitch actuators that act to change the pitch angle of the wind turbine to the new or modified pitch angle setting, and this process is iteratively performed.

  17. Aerodynamical errors on tower mounted wind speed measurements due to the presence of the tower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bergstroem, H. [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology; Dahlberg, J.Aa. [Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden)

    1996-12-01

    Field measurements of wind speed from two lattice towers showed large differences for wind directions where the anemometers of both towers should be unaffected by any upstream obstacle. The wind speed was measured by cup anemometers mounted on booms along the side of the tower. A simple wind tunnel test indicates that the boom, for the studied conditions, could cause minor flow disturbances. A theoretical study, by means of simple 2D flow modelling of the flow around the mast, demonstrates that the tower itself could cause large wind flow disturbances. A theoretical study, based on simple treatment of the physics of motion of a cup anemometer, demonstrates that a cup anemometer is sensitive to velocity gradients across the cups and responds clearly to velocity gradients in the vicinity of the tower. Comparison of the results from the theoretical study and field tests show promising agreement. 2 refs, 8 figs

  18. Measurement of the sea surface wind speed and direction by an airborne microwave radar altimeter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekrassov, A. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Hydrophysik

    2001-07-01

    A pilot needs operational information about wind over sea as well as wave height to provide safety of a hydroplane landing on water. Near-surface wind speed and direction can be obtained with an airborne microwave scatterometer, radar designed for measuring the scatter characteristics of a surface. Mostly narrow-beam antennas are applied for such wind measurement. Unfortunately, a microwave narrow-beam antenna has considerable size that hampers its placing on flying apparatus. In this connection, a possibility to apply a conventional airborne radar altimeter as a scatterometer with a nadir-looking wide-beam antenna in conjunction with Doppler filtering for recovering the wind vector over sea is discussed, and measuring algorithms of sea surface wind speed and direction are proposed. The obtained results can be used for creation of an airborne radar system for operational measurement of the sea roughness characteristics and for safe landing of a hydroplane on water. (orig.)

  19. CONSTRAINING HIGH-SPEED WINDS IN EXOPLANET ATMOSPHERES THROUGH OBSERVATIONS OF ANOMALOUS DOPPLER SHIFTS DURING TRANSIT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller-Ricci Kempton, Eliza; Rauscher, Emily

    2012-01-01

    Three-dimensional (3D) dynamical models of hot Jupiter atmospheres predict very strong wind speeds. For tidally locked hot Jupiters, winds at high altitude in the planet's atmosphere advect heat from the day side to the cooler night side of the planet. Net wind speeds on the order of 1-10 km s –1 directed towards the night side of the planet are predicted at mbar pressures, which is the approximate pressure level probed by transmission spectroscopy. These winds should result in an observed blueshift of spectral lines in transmission on the order of the wind speed. Indeed, Snellen et al. recently observed a 2 ± 1 km s –1 blueshift of CO transmission features for HD 209458b, which has been interpreted as a detection of the day-to-night (substellar to anti-stellar) winds that have been predicted by 3D atmospheric dynamics modeling. Here, we present the results of a coupled 3D atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model, which predicts the Doppler-shifted spectrum of a hot Jupiter during transit resulting from winds in the planet's atmosphere. We explore four different models for the hot Jupiter atmosphere using different prescriptions for atmospheric drag via interaction with planetary magnetic fields. We find that models with no magnetic drag produce net Doppler blueshifts in the transmission spectrum of ∼2 km s –1 and that lower Doppler shifts of ∼1 km s –1 are found for the higher drag cases, results consistent with—but not yet strongly constrained by—the Snellen et al. measurement. We additionally explore the possibility of recovering the average terminator wind speed as a function of altitude by measuring Doppler shifts of individual spectral lines and spatially resolving wind speeds across the leading and trailing terminators during ingress and egress.

  20. Reduction of horizontal wind speed in a boundary layer with obstacles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Emeis, S.; Frandsen, S.

    1993-01-01

    The reduction of horizontal wind speed at hub height in an infinite cluster of wind turbines is computed from a balance between a loss of horizontal momentum due to the drag and replenishment from above by turbulent fluxes. This reduction is derived without assumptions concerning the vertical wind...... profile above or below hub height, only some basic assumptions on turbulent exchange have been made. Two applications of the result are presented, one considering wind turbines and one pressure drag on orographic obstacles in the atmospheric boundary layer. Both applications are basically governed...... by the same kind of momentum balance....

  1. Performance comparison of control schemes for variable-speed wind turbines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottasso, C. L.; Croce, A.; Savini, B.

    2007-07-01

    We analyze the performance of different control schemes when applied to the regulation problem of a variable-speed representative wind turbine. In particular, we formulate and compare a wind-scheduled PID, a LQR controller and a novel adaptive non-linear model predictive controller, equipped with observers of the tower states and wind. The simulations include gusts and turbulent winds of varying intensity in nominal as well as off-design operating conditions. The experiments highlight the possible advantages of model-based non-linear control strategies.

  2. Performance comparison of control schemes for variable-speed wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bottasso, C L; Croce, A; Savini, B

    2007-01-01

    We analyze the performance of different control schemes when applied to the regulation problem of a variable-speed representative wind turbine. In particular, we formulate and compare a wind-scheduled PID, a LQR controller and a novel adaptive non-linear model predictive controller, equipped with observers of the tower states and wind. The simulations include gusts and turbulent winds of varying intensity in nominal as well as off-design operating conditions. The experiments highlight the possible advantages of model-based non-linear control strategies

  3. Control and Health Monitoring of Variable Speed Wind Power Generation Systems; Period of Performance: 10 July 1997 - 10 July 2000

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Song, Y. D.; Bikdash, M.; Schulz, M. J.

    2001-09-01

    This document reports accomplishments on variable speed control, furling analysis, and health monitoring of wind turbines. There are three parts, prepared by Song, Bikdash, and Schulz, respectively. The first part discusses variable-speed control of wind turbines, exploring a memory-based method for wind speed prediction and wind turbine control. The second part addresses the yaw dynamics of wind turbines, including modeling, analysis, and control. The third part of the report discusses new analytical techniques that were developed and tested to detect initial damage to prevent failures of wind turbine rotor blades.

  4. Temporal and spatial variation of maximum wind speed days during the past 20 years in major cities of Xinjiang

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidourela, Aliya; Jing, Zhen; Zhayimu, Kahaer; Abulaiti, Adili; Ubuli, Hakezi

    2018-04-01

    Wind erosion and sandstorms occur in the neighborhood of exposed dust sources. Wind erosion and desertification increase the frequency of dust storms, deteriorate air quality, and damage the ecological environment and agricultural production. The Xinjiang region has a relatively fragile ecological environment. Therefore, the study of the characteristics of maximum wind speed and wind direction in this region is of great significance to disaster prevention and mitigation, the management of activated dunes, and the sustainable development of the region. Based on the latest data of 71 sites in Xinjiang, this study explores the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of maximum wind speed in Xinjiang from 1993 to 2013, and highlights the distribution of annual and monthly maximum wind speed and the characteristics of wind direction in Xinjiang. Between 1993 and 2013, Ulugchat County exhibited the highest number of days with the maximum wind speed (> 17 m/s), while Wutian exhibited the lowest number. In Xinjiang, 1999 showed the highest number of maximum wind speed days (257 days), while 2013 showed the lowest number (69 days). Spring and summer wind speeds were greater than those in autumn and winter. There were obvious differences in the direction of maximum wind speed in major cities and counties of Xinjiang. East of the Tianshan Mountains, maximum wind speeds are mainly directed southeast and northeast. North and south of the Tianshan Mountains, they are mainly directed northwest and northeast, while west of the Tianshan Mountains, they are mainly directed southeast and northwest.

  5. Sensitivity analysis of nacelle lidar free stream wind speed measurements to wind-induction reconstruction model and lidar range configuration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svensson, Elin; Borraccino, Antoine; Meyer Forsting, Alexander Raul

    The sensitivity of nacelle lidar wind speed measurements to wind-induction models and lidar range configurations is studied using experimental data from the Nørrekær Enge (NKE) measurement campaign and simulated lidar data from Reynold-Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) aerodynamic computational fluid...... the ZDM was configured to measure at five distances. From the configured distances, a large number of range configurations were created and systematically tested to determine the sensitivity of the reconstructed wind speeds to the number of ranges, minimum range and maximum range in the range......) of the fitting residuals. The results demonstrate that it is not possible to use RANS CFD simulated lidar data to determine optimal range configurations for real-time nacelle lidars due to their perfect (unrealistic) representation of the simulated flow field. The recommended range configurations are therefore...

  6. Dimensional analysis of flame angles versus wind speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Martin; Mark A. Finney; Domingo M. Molina; David B. Sapsis; Scott L. Stephens; Joe H. Scott; David R. Weise

    1991-01-01

    Dimensional analysis has potential to help explain and predict physical phenomena, but has been used very little in studies of wildland fire behavior. By combining variables into dimensionless groups, the number of variables to be handled and the experiments to be run is greatly reduced. A low velocity wind tunnel was constructed, and methyl, ethyl, and isopropyl...

  7. Observations of the solar wind speed near the sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grall, R. R.; Coles, Wm. A.; Klinglesmith, M. T.

    1996-01-01

    Two-antenna scintillation (IPS) observations can provide accurate measurements of the velocity with which electron density fluctuations drift past the line of sight. These fluctuations can be used as tracers for the solar plasma and allow us to estimate the solar wind velocity near the Sun where spacecraft have not yet penetrated. We present recent IPS measurements made with the EISCAT and VLBA arrays. We have found that by using baselines which are several times the scale size of the diffraction pattern we are able to partially deconvolve the line of sight integration which affects remote sensing data. The long baselines allow the fast and slow components of the solar wind to be separated and their velocities estimated individually. In modeling IPS it is important that the scattering be 'weak' because the model then requires only 1 spatial parameter instead of 3. EISCAT can only operate near 933MHz which limits the observation to outside of 18R · , however the VLBA has higher frequency receivers which allow it to observe inside of 15R · . The density variance δN e 2 in the fast wind is a factor of 10-15 less than in the slow (Coles et al., 1995) making it necessary to consider the entire line of sight, particularly when the fast wind occupies the center portion. Using the point of closest approach and the average velocity to characterize the observation can lead to an incorrect interpretation of the data. We have compared our IPS observations with maps made from the Yohkoh soft X ray, HAO's white-light electron density, and Stanford magnetic field measurements as well as with the IMP8 and Ulysses spacecraft data to assist in placing the fast and slow wind. Here we have selected those observation from 1994 which were dominated by the southern coronal hole and have estimated a velocity acceleration profile for the fast solar wind between 7 and 100R · which is presented in Figure 1. The observations suggest that the fast solar wind is fully developed by ≅7R

  8. Modelling wind speed parameters for computer generation of wind speed in Flanders. A case study using small wind turbines in an urban environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gay, Michael; Dessel, Michel van [Lessius Mechelen, Campus De Nayer (Belgium). Dept. of Applied Engineering; Driesen, Johan [Leuven Univ. (Belgium). Dept. of Electrical Engineering / ESAT

    2012-07-01

    The calculation of wind energy parameters is made for small wind turbines on moderate height in a suburban environment. After using the measured data, the same parameters were calculated using first order Markov chain computer generated data. Some characteristics of the wind and the wind power were preserved using Markov, other were not. (orig.)

  9. Small Horizontal Axis Wind Turbine under High Speed Operation: Study of Power Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moh. M. Saad, Magedi; Mohd, Sofian Bin; Zulkafli, Mohd Fadhli Bin; Abdullah, Aslam Bin; Rahim, Mohammad Zulafif Bin; Subari, Zulkhairi Bin; Rosly, Nurhayati Binti

    2017-10-01

    Mechanical energy is produced through the rotation of wind turbine blades by air that convert the mechanical energy into electrical energy. Wind turbines are usually designed to be use for particular applications and design characteristics may vary depending on the area of use. The variety of applications is reflected on the size of turbines and their infrastructures, however, performance enhancement of wind turbine may start by analyzing the small horizontal axis wind turbine (SHAWT) under high wind speed operation. This paper analyzes the implementations of SHAWT turbines and investigates their performance in both simulation and real life. Depending on the real structure of the rotor geometry and aerodynamic test, the power performance of the SHAWT was simulated using ANSYS-FLUENT software at different wind speed up to 33.33 m/s (120km/h) in order to numerically investigate the actual turbine operation. Dynamic mesh and user define function (UDF) was used for revolving the rotor turbine via wind. Simulation results were further validated by experimental data and hence good matching was yielded. And for reducing the energy producing cost, car alternator was formed to be used as a small horizontal wind turbine. As a result, alternator-based turbine system was found to be a low-cost solution for exploitation of wind energy.

  10. Efficacy of spatial averaging of infrasonic pressure in varying wind speeds

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeWolf, Scott; Walker, Kristoffer T.; Zumberge, Mark A.; Denis, Stephane

    2013-01-01

    Wind noise reduction (WNR) is important in the measurement of infra-sound. Spatial averaging theory led to the development of rosette pipe arrays. The efficacy of rosettes decreases with increasing wind speed and only provides a maximum of 20 dB WNR due to a maximum size limitation. An Optical Fiber Infra-sound Sensor (OFIS) reduces wind noise by instantaneously averaging infra-sound along the sensor's length. In this study two experiments quantify the WNR achieved by rosettes and OFISs of various sizes and configurations. Specifically, it is shown that the WNR for a circular OFIS 18 m in diameter is the same as a collocated 32-inlet pipe array of the same diameter. However, linear OFISs ranging in length from 30 to 270 m provide a WNR of up to 30 dB in winds up to 5 m/s. The measured WNR is a logarithmic function of the OFIS length and depends on the orientation of the OFIS with respect to wind direction. OFISs oriented parallel to the wind direction achieve 4 dB greater WNR than those oriented perpendicular to the wind. Analytical models for the rosette and OFIS are developed that predict the general observed relationships between wind noise reduction, frequency, and wind speed. (authors)

  11. Statistical downscaling of historical monthly mean winds over a coastal region of complex terrain. I. Predicting wind speed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Curry, Charles L. [Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Kamp, Derek van der [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada); Monahan, Adam H. [School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2012-04-15

    Surface wind speed is a key climatic variable of interest in many applications, including assessments of storm-related infrastructure damage and feasibility studies of wind power generation. In this work and a companion paper (van der Kamp et al. 2011), the relationship between local surface wind and large-scale climate variables was studied using multiple regression analysis. The analysis was performed using monthly mean station data from British Columbia, Canada and large-scale climate variables (predictors) from the NCEP-2 reanalysis over the period 1979-2006. Two regression-based methodologies were compared. The first relates the annual cycle of station wind speed to that of the large-scale predictors at the closest grid box to the station. It is shown that the relatively high correlation coefficients obtained with this method are attributable to the dominant influence of region-wide seasonality, and thus contain minimal information about local wind behaviour at the stations. The second method uses interannually varying data for individual months, aggregated into seasons, and is demonstrated to contain intrinsically local information about the surface winds. The dependence of local wind speed upon large-scale predictors over a much larger region surrounding the station was also explored, resulting in 2D maps of spatial correlations. The cross-validated explained variance using the interannual method was highest in autumn and winter, ranging from 30 to 70% at about a dozen stations in the region. Reasons for the limited predictive skill of the regressions and directions for future progress are reviewed. (orig.)

  12. Comparative study of speed estimators with highly noisy measurement signals for Wind Energy Generation Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carranza, O. [Escuela Superior de Computo, Instituto Politecnico Nacional, Av. Juan de Dios Batiz S/N, Col. Lindavista, Del. Gustavo A. Madero 7738, D.F. (Mexico); Figueres, E.; Garcera, G. [Grupo de Sistemas Electronicos Industriales, Departamento de Ingenieria Electronica, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera S/N, 7F, 46020 Valencia (Spain); Gonzalez, L.G. [Departamento de Ingenieria Electronica, Universidad de los Andes, Merida (Venezuela)

    2011-03-15

    This paper presents a comparative study of several speed estimators to implement a sensorless speed control loop in Wind Energy Generation Systems driven by power factor correction three-phase boost rectifiers. This rectifier topology reduces the low frequency harmonics contents of the generator currents and, consequently, the generator power factor approaches unity whereas undesired vibrations of the mechanical system decrease. For implementation of the speed estimators, the compared techniques start from the measurement of electrical variables like currents and voltages, which contain low frequency harmonics of the fundamental frequency of the wind generator, as well as switching frequency components due to the boost rectifier. In this noisy environment it has been analyzed the performance of the following estimation techniques: Synchronous Reference Frame Phase Locked Loop, speed reconstruction by measuring the dc current and voltage of the rectifier and speed estimation by means of both an Extended Kalman Filter and a Linear Kalman Filter. (author)

  13. A reward semi-Markov process with memory for wind speed modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petroni, F.; D'Amico, G.; Prattico, F.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing interest in renewable energy leads scientific research to find a better way to recover most of the available energy. Particularly, the maximum energy recoverable from wind is equal to 59.3% of that available (Betz law) at a specific pitch angle and when the ratio between the wind speed in output and in input is equal to 1/3. The pitch angle is the angle formed between the airfoil of the blade of the wind turbine and the wind direction. Old turbine and a lot of that actually marketed, in fact, have always the same invariant geometry of the airfoil. This causes that wind turbines will work with an efficiency that is lower than 59.3%. New generation wind turbines, instead, have a system to variate the pitch angle by rotating the blades. This system able the wind turbines to recover, at different wind speed, always the maximum energy, working in Betz limit at different speed ratios. A powerful system control of the pitch angle allows the wind turbine to recover better the energy in transient regime. A good stochastic model for wind speed is then needed to help both the optimization of turbine design and to assist the system control to predict the value of the wind speed to positioning the blades quickly and correctly. The possibility to have synthetic data of wind speed is a powerful instrument to assist designer to verify the structures of the wind turbines or to estimate the energy recoverable from a specific site. To generate synthetic data, Markov chains of first or higher order are often used [1,2,3]. In particular in [1] is presented a comparison between a first-order Markov chain and a second-order Markov chain. A similar work, but only for the first-order Markov chain, is conduced by [2], presenting the probability transition matrix and comparing the energy spectral density and autocorrelation of real and synthetic wind speed data. A tentative to modeling and to join speed and direction of wind is presented in [3], by using two models, first

  14. WIND SPEED AND ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY TRENDS FOR SELECTED UNITED STATES SURFACE STATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Buckley, R; Allen H. Weber, A

    2006-11-01

    Recently it has been suggested that global warming and a decrease in mean wind speeds over most land masses are related. Decreases in near surface wind speeds have been reported by previous investigators looking at records with time spans of 15 to 30 years. This study focuses on United States (US) surface stations that have little or no location change since the late 1940s or the 1950s--a time range of up to 58 years. Data were selected from 62 stations (24 of which had not changed location) and separated into ten groups for analysis. The group's annual averages of temperature, wind speed, and percentage of Pasquill-Gifford (PG) stability categories were fitted with linear least squares regression lines. The results showed that the temperatures have increased for eight of the ten groups as expected. Wind speeds have decreased for nine of the ten groups. The mean slope of the wind speed trend lines for stations within the coterminous US was -0.77 m s{sup -1} per century. The percentage frequency of occurrence for the neutral (D) PG stability category decreased, while that for the unstable (B) and the stable (F) categories increased in almost all cases except for the group of stations located in Alaska.

  15. Comparison of Geophysical Model Functions for SAR Wind Speed Retrieval in Japanese Coastal Waters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merete Badger

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This work discusses the accuracies of geophysical model functions (GMFs for retrieval of sea surface wind speed from satellite-borne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR images in Japanese coastal waters characterized by short fetches and variable atmospheric stability conditions. In situ observations from two validation sites, Hiratsuka and Shirahama, are used for comparison of the retrieved sea surface wind speeds using CMOD (C-band model4, CMOD_IFR2, CMOD5 and CMOD5.N. Of all the geophysical model functions (GMFs, the latest C-band GMF, CMOD5.N, has the smallest bias and root mean square error at both sites. All of the GMFs exhibit a negative bias in the retrieved wind speed. In order to understand the reason for this bias, all SAR-retrieved wind speeds are separated into two categories: onshore wind (blowing from sea to land and offshore wind (blowing from land to sea. Only offshore winds were found to exhibit the large negative bias, and short fetches from the coastline may be a possible reason for this. Moreover, it is clarified that in both the unstable and stable conditions, CMOD5.N has atmospheric stability effectiveness, and can keep the same accuracy with CMOD5 in the neutral condition. In short, at the moment, CMOD5.N is thought to be the most promising GMF for the SAR wind speed retrieval with the atmospheric stability correction in Japanese coastal waters, although there is ample room for future improvement for the effect from short fetch.

  16. Study of short term memory status in adult bipolar disorder patients in south Indian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aslam, Mohammed; Siddiq, Mohamed; Dhundasi, Salim A; Das, Kusal K; Kulkarni, B R

    2011-01-01

    The present study was undertaken to establish short term memory status in bipolar disorder cases as compared with normal age and sex matched control group in Bijapur (Karnataka). Results showed that a significant decrease in short term memory status in bipolar disorder cases as compared to their control group .Loss of attention, decreased processing speed and executive function patterns may be the probable causes of such observations.

  17. Highly reliable wind-rolling triboelectric nanogenerator operating in a wide wind speed range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yong, Hyungseok; Chung, Jihoon; Choi, Dukhyun; Jung, Daewoong; Cho, Minhaeng; Lee, Sangmin

    2016-01-01

    Triboelectric nanogenerators are aspiring energy harvesting methods that generate electricity from the triboelectric effect and electrostatic induction. This study demonstrates the harvesting of wind energy by a wind-rolling triboelectric nanogenerator (WR-TENG). The WR-TENG generates electricity from wind as a lightweight dielectric sphere rotates along the vortex whistle substrate. Increasing the kinetic energy of a dielectric converted from the wind energy is a key factor in fabricating an efficient WR-TENG. Computation fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis is introduced to estimate the precise movements of wind flow and to create a vortex flow by adjusting the parameters of the vortex whistle shape to optimize the design parameters to increase the kinetic energy conversion rate. WR-TENG can be utilized as both a self-powered wind velocity sensor and a wind energy harvester. A single unit of WR-TENG produces open-circuit voltage of 11.2 V and closed-circuit current of 1.86 μA. Additionally, findings reveal that the electrical power is enhanced through multiple electrode patterns in a single device and by increasing the number of dielectric spheres inside WR-TENG. The wind-rolling TENG is a novel approach for a sustainable wind-driven TENG that is sensitive and reliable to wind flows to harvest wasted wind energy in the near future. PMID:27653976

  18. Assessment of Gearbox Operational Loads and Reliability under High Mean Wind Speeds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dabrowski, Dariusz; Natarajan, Anand

    2015-01-01

    wind turbine that operates in storm conditions with mean wind speeds less than 30 m/s is presented. In the study, normal shut-downs of a wind turbine in storm conditions were investigated. The analysis were conducted for two storm control strategies and different wind conditions from an extreme...... operating gust, normal turbulence model and extreme turbulence model. In the paper, loads in the planetary gear are quantified as well as the torsional moments in the main shaft. On the basis of simulation results the annual probability of failure of the gearbox in a wind turbine with soft storm controller...... is calculated, and compared with the one had the gearbox working in a wind turbine operating with hard storm controller. In the study, it was found that normal shut-downs do not have a significant influence on the ultimate loads in the gearbox, since they are related mostly to the gusts occurring during...

  19. Wind plant capacity credit variations: A comparison of results using multiyear actual and simulated wind-speed data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Milligan, M.R. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Although it is widely recognized that variations in annual wind energy capture can be significant, it is not clear how significant this effect is on accurately calculating the capacity credit of a wind plant. An important question is raised concerning whether one year of wind data is representative of long-term patterns. This paper calculates the range of capacity credit measures based on 13 years of actual wind-speed data. The results are compared to those obtained with synthetic data sets that are based on one year of data. Although the use of synthetic data sets is a considerable improvement over single-estimate techniques, this paper finds that the actual inter-annual variation in capacity credit is still understated by the synthetic data technique.

  20. Analysis of Wind Speed Forecasting Error Effects on Automatic Generation Control Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Rajabi Mashhadi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to study statistical indices and evaluate AGC indices in power system which has large penetration of the WTGs. Increasing penetration of wind turbine generations, needs to study more about impacts of it on power system frequency control. Frequency control is changed with unbalancing real-time system generation and load . Also wind turbine generations have more fluctuations and make system more unbalance. Then AGC loop helps to adjust system frequency and the scheduled tie-line powers. The quality of AGC loop is measured by some indices. A good index is a proper measure shows the AGC performance just as the power system operates. One of well-known measures in literature which was introduced by NERC is Control Performance Standards(CPS. Previously it is claimed that a key factor in CPS index is related to standard deviation of generation error, installed power and frequency response. This paper focuses on impact of a several hours-ahead wind speed forecast error on this factor. Furthermore evaluation of conventional control performances in the power systems with large-scale wind turbine penetration is studied. Effects of wind speed standard deviation and also degree of wind farm penetration are analyzed and importance of mentioned factor are criticized. In addition, influence of mean wind speed forecast error on this factor is investigated. The study system is a two area system which there is significant wind farm in one of those. The results show that mean wind speed forecast error has considerable effect on AGC performance while the mentioned key factor is insensitive to this mean error.

  1. Wind tunnel experiments to prove a hydraulic passive rotor speed control concept for variable speed wind turbines (poster)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diepeveen, N.F.B.; Jarquin Laguna, A.

    2012-01-01

    As alternative to geared and direct drive solutions, fluid power drive trains are being developed by several institutions around the world. The common configuration is where the wind turbine rotor is coupled to a hydraulic pump. The pump is connected through a high pressure line to a hydraulic motor

  2. Is visual short-term memory depthful?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, Adam; Lei, Quan

    2014-03-01

    Does visual short-term memory (VSTM) depend on depth, as it might be if information was stored in more than one depth layer? Depth is critical in natural viewing and might be expected to affect retention, but whether this is so is currently unknown. Cued partial reports of letter arrays (Sperling, 1960) were measured up to 700 ms after display termination. Adding stereoscopic depth hardly affected VSTM capacity or decay inferred from total errors. The pattern of transposition errors (letters reported from an uncued row) was almost independent of depth and cue delay. We conclude that VSTM is effectively two-dimensional. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. WTSETUP: Software for Creating and Editing Configuration Files in the Low Speed Wind Tunnel Data Acquisition System

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Edwards, Craig

    1999-01-01

    The Data Acquisition System in the Low Speed Wind Tunnel at the Aeronautical and Maritime Research Laboratory is responsible for the measurement, recording, processing and displaying of wind tunnel test data...

  4. Influence of wind farm capacity, turbine size and wind speed on production cost: analysis of the actual market trend

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laali, A.-R.; Meyer, J.-L.

    1996-01-01

    Several studies are undertaken in R and D Division of EDF in collaboration with ERASME association in order to have a good knowledge of the wind energy production costs. These studies are performed in the framework of a wind energy monitoring project and concern the influence of a few parameters like wind farm capacity, turbine size and wind speed on production costs, through an analysis of the actual market trend. Some 50 manufacturers and 140 different kind of wind turbines are considered for this study. The minimum production cost is situated at 800/900 kW wind turbine rated power. This point will probably move to more important powers in the future. This study is valid only for average conditions and some special parameters like particular climate conditions or lack of infrastructure for a special site that could modify the results shown on the curves. The variety of wind turbines (rated power as a function of rotor diameter, height and specific rated power) in the actual market is analysed. A brief analysis of the market trend is also performed. (author)

  5. Wind Speed Forecasting Based on FEEMD and LSSVM Optimized by the Bat Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Sun

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Affected by various environmental factors, wind speed presents high fluctuation, nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics. To evaluate wind energy properly and efficiently, this paper proposes a modified fast ensemble empirical model decomposition (FEEMD-bat algorithm (BA-least support vector machines (LSSVM (FEEMD-BA-LSSVM model combined with input selected by deep quantitative analysis. The original wind speed series are first decomposed into a limited number of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs with one residual series. Then a LSSVM is built to forecast these sub-series. In order to select input from environment variables, Cointegration and Granger causality tests are proposed to check the influence of temperature with different leading lengths. Partial correlation is applied to analyze the inner relationships between the historical speeds thus to select the LSSVM input. The parameters in LSSVM are fine-tuned by BA to ensure the generalization of LSSVM. The forecasting results suggest the hybrid approach outperforms the compared models.

  6. Control of variable speed variable pitch wind turbine based on a disturbance observer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Haijun; Lei, Xin

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, a novel sliding mode controller based on disturbance observer (DOB) to optimize the efficiency of variable speed variable pitch (VSVP) wind turbine is developed and analyzed. Due to the highly nonlinearity of the VSVP system, the model is linearly processed to obtain the state space model of the system. Then, a conventional sliding mode controller is designed and a DOB is added to estimate wind speed. The proposed control strategy can successfully deal with the random nature of wind speed, the nonlinearity of VSVP system, the uncertainty of parameters and external disturbance. Via adding the observer to the sliding mode controller, it can greatly reduce the chattering produced by the sliding mode switching gain. The simulation results show that the proposed control system has the effectiveness and robustness.

  7. Dual stator winding variable speed asynchronous generator: optimal design and experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tutelea, L N; Deaconu, S I; Popa, G N

    2015-01-01

    In the present paper is carried out a theoretical and experimental study of dual stator winding squirrel cage asynchronous generator (DSWA) behavior in the presence of saturation regime (non-sinusoidal) due to the variable speed operation. The main aims are the determination of the relations of calculating the equivalent parameters of the machine windings to optimal design using a Matlab code. Issue is limited to three phase range of double stator winding cage-induction generator of small sized powers, the most currently used in the small adjustable speed wind or hydro power plants. The tests were carried out using three-phase asynchronous generator having rated power of 6 [kVA]. (paper)

  8. Variable Speed Wind Turbine Based on Multiple Generators Drive-Train Configuration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Deng, Fujin; Chen, Zhe

    2010-01-01

    A variable speed wind turbine is presented in this paper, where multiple permanent magnet synchronous generators (MPMSGs) drive-train configuration is employed in the wind turbine. A cascaded multilevel converter interface based on the MPMSGs is developed to synthesize a desired high ac sinusoidal...... output voltage, which could be directly connected to the grids. What is more, such arrangement has been made so that the output ac voltage having a selected phase angle difference among the stator windings of multiple generators. A phase angle shift strategy is proposed in this paper, which effectively...... reduce the fluctuation of the electromagnetic torque sum and results in a good performance for the MPMSGs structure. The simulation study is conducted using PSCAD/EMTDC, and the results verify the feasibility of this variable speed wind turbine based on multiple generators drive-train configuration....

  9. Self streamlining wind tunnel: Further low speed testing and final design studies for the transonic facility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, S. W. D.

    1978-01-01

    Work was continued with the low speed self streamlining wind tunnel (SSWT) using the NACA 0012-64 airfoil in an effort to explain the discrepancies between the NASA Langley low turbulence pressure tunnel (LTPT) and SSWT results obtained with the airfoil stalled. Conventional wind tunnel corrections were applied to straight wall SSWT airfoil data, to illustrate the inadequacy of standard correction techniques in circumstances of high blockage. Also one SSWT test was re-run at different air speeds to investigate the effects of such changes (perhaps through changes in Reynold's number and freestream turbulence levels) on airfoil data and wall contours. Mechanical design analyses for the transonic self-streamlining wind tunnel (TSWT) were completed by the application of theoretical airfoil flow field data to the elastic beam and streamline analysis. The control system for the transonic facility, which will eventually allow on-line computer operation of the wind tunnel, was outlined.

  10. Comparative study of chaotic features in hourly wind speed using recurrence quantification analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeniji, A. E.; Olusola, O. I.; Njah, A. N.

    2018-02-01

    Due to the shortage in electricity supply in Nigeria, there is a need to improve the alternative power generation from wind energy by analysing the wind speed data available in some parts of the country, for a better understanding of its underlying dynamics for the purpose of good prediction and modelling. The wind speed data used in this study were collected over a period of two years by National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) from five different stations in the tropics namely; Abuja (7050'02.09"N and 6004'29.97"E), Akungba (6059'05.40"N and 5035'52.23"E), Nsukka (6051'28.14"N and 7024'28.15"E), Port Harcourt (4047'05.41"N and 6059'30.62"E), and Yola (9017'33.58"N and 12023'26.69"E). In this paper, recurrence plot (RP) and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) are applied to investigate a non-linear deterministic dynamical process and non-stationarity in hourly wind speed data from the study areas. Using RQA for each month of the two years, it is observed that wind speed data for the wet months exhibit higher chaoticity than that of the dry months for all the stations, due to strong and weak monsoonal effect during the wet and dry seasons respectively. The results show that recurrence techniques are able to identify areas and periods for which the harvest of wind energy for power generation is good (high predictability) and poor (low predictability) in the study areas. This work also validates the RQA measures (Lmax, DET and ENT) used and establishes that they are similar/related as they give similar results for the dynamical characterization of the wind speed data.

  11. Comparative study of chaotic features in hourly wind speed using recurrence quantification analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Adeniji

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Due to the shortage in electricity supply in Nigeria, there is a need to improve the alternative power generation from wind energy by analysing the wind speed data available in some parts of the country, for a better understanding of its underlying dynamics for the purpose of good prediction and modelling. The wind speed data used in this study were collected over a period of two years by National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA from five different stations in the tropics namely; Abuja (7050'02.09"N and 6004'29.97"E, Akungba (6059'05.40"N and 5035'52.23"E, Nsukka (6051'28.14"N and 7024'28.15"E, Port Harcourt (4047'05.41"N and 6059'30.62"E, and Yola (9017'33.58"N and 12023'26.69"E. In this paper, recurrence plot (RP and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA are applied to investigate a non-linear deterministic dynamical process and non-stationarity in hourly wind speed data from the study areas. Using RQA for each month of the two years, it is observed that wind speed data for the wet months exhibit higher chaoticity than that of the dry months for all the stations, due to strong and weak monsoonal effect during the wet and dry seasons respectively. The results show that recurrence techniques are able to identify areas and periods for which the harvest of wind energy for power generation is good (high predictability and poor (low predictability in the study areas. This work also validates the RQA measures (Lmax, DET and ENT used and establishes that they are similar/related as they give similar results for the dynamical characterization of the wind speed data.

  12. Modeling and Design Optimization of Variable-Speed Wind Turbine Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulas Eminoglu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the increase in energy demand and government subsidies, the usage of wind turbine system (WTS has increased dramatically. Due to the higher energy production of a variable-speed WTS as compared to a fixed-speed WTS, the demand for this type of WTS has increased. In this study, a new method for the calculation of the power output of variable-speed WTSs is proposed. The proposed model is developed from the S-type curve used for population growth, and is only a function of the rated power and rated (nominal wind speed. It has the advantage of enabling the user to calculate power output without using the rotor power coefficient. Additionally, by using the developed model, a mathematical method to calculate the value of rated wind speed in terms of turbine capacity factor and the scale parameter of the Weibull distribution for a given wind site is also proposed. Design optimization studies are performed by using the particle swarm optimization (PSO and artificial bee colony (ABC algorithms, which are applied into this type of problem for the first time. Different sites such as Northern and Mediterranean sites of Europe have been studied. Analyses for various parameters are also presented in order to evaluate the effect of rated wind speed on the design parameters and produced energy cost. Results show that proposed models are reliable and very useful for modeling and optimization of WTSs design by taking into account the wind potential of the region. Results also show that the PSO algorithm has better performance than the ABC algorithm for this type of problem.

  13. Spatial and temporal variability of mean daily wind speeds in the Czech Republic, 1961-2015

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brázdil, Rudolf; Zahradníček, Pavel; Řezníčková, Ladislava; Tolasz, R.; Štěpánek, Petr; Dobrovolný, Petr

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 72, č. 3 (2017), s. 197-216 ISSN 0936-577X R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415; GA ČR(CZ) GA15-11805S Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : mean daily wind speed * spatial variability * temporal variability * wind stilling * Czech Republic Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology OBOR OECD: Meteorology and atmospheric sciences Impact factor: 1.578, year: 2016

  14. Dynamic Protective Control Strategy for Distributed Generation System with Fixed-speed Wind Turbines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2012-01-01

    The characteristics of induction generator based fixed-speed wind turbines (FSWT) are investigated. The impacts of different execution time in protective operations are studied under different fauit duration and various wind velocity situations, e.g. , FSWT stabilities of load shedding in distribution systems. Based on this research, a dynamic protective control strategy for a distributed generation system (DGS) with FSWT is proposed. Finally, simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the strategy.

  15. Short term depression unmasks the ghost frequency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjeerd V Olde Scheper

    Full Text Available Short Term Plasticity (STP has been shown to exist extensively in synapses throughout the brain. Its function is more or less clear in the sense that it alters the probability of synaptic transmission at short time scales. However, it is still unclear what effect STP has on the dynamics of neural networks. We show, using a novel dynamic STP model, that Short Term Depression (STD can affect the phase of frequency coded input such that small networks can perform temporal signal summation and determination with high accuracy. We show that this property of STD can readily solve the problem of the ghost frequency, the perceived pitch of a harmonic complex in absence of the base frequency. Additionally, we demonstrate that this property can explain dynamics in larger networks. By means of two models, one of chopper neurons in the Ventral Cochlear Nucleus and one of a cortical microcircuit with inhibitory Martinotti neurons, it is shown that the dynamics in these microcircuits can reliably be reproduced using STP. Our model of STP gives important insights into the potential roles of STP in self-regulation of cortical activity and long-range afferent input in neuronal microcircuits.

  16. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  17. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  18. Measuring Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Brochure provides and overview of the analysis and results. Readers interested in an in-depth discussion of methodology are referred to the MOSES Working Paper.

  19. PDF models and synthetic model for the wind speed fluctuations based on the resolution of Langevin equation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calif, Rudy

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Probability Density Functions are proposed to fit the wind speed fluctuations distributions for three representative classes. ► Stochastic simulations are performed using a Langevin equation for each class. ► The properties of simulated and measured wind speed sequences are close. -- Abstract: Wind energy production is very sensitive to turbulent wind speed. Thus rapid variation of wind speed due to changes in the local meteorological conditions can lead to electrical power variations of the order of the nominal power output, in particular when wind power variations on very short time scales, range at few seconds to 1 h, are considered. In small grid as they exist on islands (Guadeloupean Archipelago: French West Indies) such fluctuations can cause instabilities in case of intermediate power shortages. The developed analysis in reveals three main classes of time series for the wind speed fluctuations. In this work, Probability Density Functions (PDFs) are proposed to fit the wind speed fluctuations distributions in each class. After, to simulate wind speed fluctuations sequences, we use a stochastic differential equation, the Langevin equation considering Gaussian turbulence PDF (class I), Gram–Charlier PDF (class II) and a mixture of gaussian PDF (class III). The statistical and dynamical properties of simulated wind sequences are close to those of measured wind sequences, for each class.

  20. Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid forecasting architecture and an improved bat algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiao, Liye; Qian, Feng; Shao, Wei

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Propose a hybrid architecture based on a modified bat algorithm for multi-step wind speed forecasting. • Improve the accuracy of multi-step wind speed forecasting. • Modify bat algorithm with CG to improve optimized performance. - Abstract: As one of the most promising sustainable energy sources, wind energy plays an important role in energy development because of its cleanliness without causing pollution. Generally, wind speed forecasting, which has an essential influence on wind power systems, is regarded as a challenging task. Analyses based on single-step wind speed forecasting have been widely used, but their results are insufficient in ensuring the reliability and controllability of wind power systems. In this paper, a new forecasting architecture based on decomposing algorithms and modified neural networks is successfully developed for multi-step wind speed forecasting. Four different hybrid models are contained in this architecture, and to further improve the forecasting performance, a modified bat algorithm (BA) with the conjugate gradient (CG) method is developed to optimize the initial weights between layers and thresholds of the hidden layer of neural networks. To investigate the forecasting abilities of the four models, the wind speed data collected from four different wind power stations in Penglai, China, were used as a case study. The numerical experiments showed that the hybrid model including the singular spectrum analysis and general regression neural network with CG-BA (SSA-CG-BA-GRNN) achieved the most accurate forecasting results in one-step to three-step wind speed forecasting.