WorldWideScience

Sample records for short-term rainfall variations

  1. Very short-term rainfall forecasting by effectively using the ensemble outputs of numerical weather prediction models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ming-Chang; Lin, Gwo-Fong; Feng, Lei; Hwang, Gong-Do

    2017-04-01

    In Taiwan, heavy rainfall brought by typhoons often causes serious disasters and leads to loss of life and property. In order to reduce the impact of these disasters, accurate rainfall forecasts are always important for civil protection authorities to prepare proper measures in advance. In this study, a methodology is proposed for providing very short-term (1- to 6-h ahead) rainfall forecasts in a basin-scale area. The proposed methodology is developed based on the use of analogy reasoning approach to effectively integrate the ensemble precipitation forecasts from a numerical weather prediction system in Taiwan. To demonstrate the potential of the proposed methodology, an application to a basin-scale area (the Choshui River basin located in west-central Taiwan) during five typhoons is conducted. The results indicate that the proposed methodology yields more accurate hourly rainfall forecasts, especially the forecasts with a lead time of 1 to 3 hours. On average, improvement of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is about 14% due to the effective use of the ensemble forecasts through the proposed methodology. The proposed methodology is expected to be useful for providing accurate very short-term rainfall forecasts during typhoons.

  2. Short-term ensemble radar rainfall forecasts for hydrological applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codo de Oliveira, M.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2016-12-01

    Flooding is a very common natural disaster around the world, putting local population and economy at risk. Forecasting floods several hours ahead and issuing warnings are of main importance to permit proper response in emergency situations. However, it is important to know the uncertainties related to the rainfall forecasting in order to produce more reliable forecasts. Nowcasting models (short-term rainfall forecasts) are able to produce high spatial and temporal resolution predictions that are useful in hydrological applications. Nonetheless, they are subject to uncertainties mainly due to the nowcasting model used, errors in radar rainfall estimation, temporal development of the velocity field and to the fact that precipitation processes such as growth and decay are not taken into account. In this study an ensemble generation scheme using rain gauge data as a reference to estimate radars errors is used to produce forecasts with up to 3h lead-time. The ensembles try to assess in a realistic way the residual uncertainties that remain even after correction algorithms are applied in the radar data. The ensembles produced are compered to a stochastic ensemble generator. Furthermore, the rainfall forecast output was used as an input in a hydrodynamic sewer network model and also in hydrological model for catchments of different sizes in north England. A comparative analysis was carried of how was carried out to assess how the radar uncertainties propagate into these models. The first named author is grateful to CAPES - Ciencia sem Fronteiras for funding this PhD research.

  3. Long term variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark and southern Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2015-01-01

    A high number of studies have detected changes in the observed heavy rainfall in Northern and Central Europe, all adding to the debate on anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on rainfall extremes. However, it is equally relevant to understand natural variations on which...... the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in daily rainfall extremes from Denmark and southern Sweden, with a recurrence level relevant for flood hazard analysis. Based on smoothed series it is concluded that the frequency of the extreme events shows both a general...

  4. Short-term variations of radiocarbon during the last century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchuladze, A.A.; Pagava, S.V.; Jurina, V.; Povinec, P.; Usacev, S.

    1982-01-01

    Radiocarbon variations related to the 11-year solar cycle during the last century are discussed. Previous investigations on short term 14 C variations in tree rings are compared with 14 C measurements in Georgian wine samples. The amplitude of 14 C variations as obtained by various authors ranges from 0.2 to about 1%. (author)

  5. Short-Term Forecasting of Urban Storm Water Runoff in Real-Time using Extrapolated Radar Rainfall Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2013-01-01

    Model based short-term forecasting of urban storm water runoff can be applied in realtime control of drainage systems in order to optimize system capacity during rain and minimize combined sewer overflows, improve wastewater treatment or activate alarms if local flooding is impending. A novel onl....... The radar rainfall extrapolation (nowcast) limits the lead time of the system to two hours. In this paper, the model set-up is tested on a small urban catchment for a period of 1.5 years. The 50 largest events are presented....... online system, which forecasts flows and water levels in real-time with inputs from extrapolated radar rainfall data, has been developed. The fully distributed urban drainage model includes auto-calibration using online in-sewer measurements which is seen to improve forecast skills significantly...

  6. Methods to evvaluate normal rainfall for short-term wetland hydrology assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaclyn Sumner; Michael J. Vepraskas; Randall K. Kolka

    2009-01-01

    Identifying sites meeting wetland hydrology requirements is simple when long-term (>10 years) records are available. Because such data are rare, we hypothesized that a single-year of hydrology data could be used to reach the same conclusion as with long-term data, if the data were obtained during a period of normal or below normal rainfall. Long-term (40-45 years)...

  7. Seasonal variation in short-term mortality after surgery for colorectal cancer?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, L H; Nielsen, H; Pedersen, L

    2010-01-01

    Comorbidity has a major impact on short-term and long-term survival of colorectal cancer (CRC) and many CRC patients suffer from comorbidities. Mortality rates for comorbidities like cardio-respiratory diseases exhibit distinct seasonal variations with highest rates in the winter. Therefore, we...

  8. Short term variations in particulate matter in Mahi river estuary

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bhosle, N.B.; Rokade, M.A.; Zingde, M.D.

    The particulate matter (PM) collected from Mahi River Estuary was analysed for organic carbon (POC), nitrogen (PON), and chlorophyll a (Chl a). The concentration of PM, POC, PON and Chl a showed short term variations. Average surface concentration...

  9. Comparison of short-term rainfall forecasts for modelbased flow prediction in urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Ahm, Malte; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbek

    2013-01-01

    Forecast-based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real-time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecast - a radar rainfall extrapolation-based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied...... performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short lead times and the weather model for larger lead times....

  10. Comparison of short term rainfall forecasts for model based flow prediction in urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Poulsen, Troels Sander; Bøvith, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Forecast based flow prediction in drainage systems can be used to implement real time control of drainage systems. This study compares two different types of rainfall forecasts – a radar rainfall extrapolation based nowcast model and a numerical weather prediction model. The models are applied...... performance of the system is found using the radar nowcast for the short leadtimes and weather model for larger lead times....

  11. Short-term variation in ocular anterior chamber angle using Scheimpflug photography

    OpenAIRE

    A. Rubin

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To investigate short-term variation of ocular Anterior Chamber Angle (ACA) within and across the different meridians of young, healthy eyes. Method: Scheimpflug photography (via an  Oculus Pentacam) was used to repeatedly measure the anterior segment of the right eyes of three young females, all aged 22 years.  For each individual, ten consecutive maps were determined over a short time period and each map contained information for the chamber angles of different meridians acr...

  12. Investigation into increasing short-duration rainfall intensities in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-04-03

    Apr 3, 2015 ... This study explores this expectation by using historical short-duration ... weather station 5-min rainfall data were combined to extend the effective ... evidence was found of trends or indications of changes in rainfall intensities.

  13. Evaluation of short-period rainfall estimates from Kalpana-1 satellite

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) technique for rainfall estimation, has recently been developed to meet the shortcomings of the Global Precipitation Index (GPI) technique of rainfall estimation from the data of geostationary satellites; especially for accurate short period rainfall estimates. This study ...

  14. Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2016-04-01

    It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

  15. Short and long term variation in ultraviolet radiation and multiple sclerosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Menni, Cristina; Lowell, Walter E; Bentzen, Joan

    2012-01-01

    We examined the role of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in persons diagnosed with multiple sclerosis (MS) in four different populations, Italians, Danish, White and African Americans. We tested whether variation in UVR as determined by seasons (short term variation) and solar cycles (long term...... to study the pattern of month of birth distribution in patients with MS comparing with general population data. T-tests were employed to study solar cycles association with lifespan. A surplus of births was observed in June for White Americans. A decrease of births in October and November, though...... not significant after multiple testing correction, was observed in the three populations. In White American with MS overall, males and females, we found that solar cycle is associated with lifespan. We found that season and solar cycles have some role in MS susceptibility and life duration. However...

  16. Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    Christofer Kristo; Harianto Rahardjo; Alfrendo Satyanaga

    2017-01-01

    Numerous scientific evidence has given credence to the true existence and deleterious impacts of climate change. One aspect of climate change is the variations in rainfall patterns, which affect the flux boundary condition across ground surface. A possible disastrous consequence of this change is the occurrence of rainfall-induced slope failures. This paper aims to investigate the variations in rainfall patterns in Singapore and its effect on slope stability. Singapore's historical rainfall d...

  17. Some observations of the variations in natural gamma radiation due to rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minato, S.

    1980-01-01

    Results of observations of variations in natural gamma-radiation flux densities due to rainfall are presented and discussed in relation to rate of rainfall. Variations of fluences with amounts of rainfall are also described. It is concluded that the frequency distribution of the ratio of the fluence to the amount of rainfall has a trend to be lognormal

  18. Regional variation in short distance homogamy

    OpenAIRE

    Haandrikman, Karen; van Wissen, Leo

    2011-01-01

    A third of all Dutch cohabiters choose a partner from the same municipality, so-called short distance homogamy. This article analyses the regional variation in this phenomenon, and it explains this variation in terms of geographical, socioeconomic, demographic and cultural determinants. Population register data on all new cohabiters in 2004 were used. Regression methods were employed to explain spatial patterns. Regional variation in short distance homogamy is largely explained by geographica...

  19. Temporal and spatial variations of rainfall erosivity in Southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ming-Hsi; Lin, Huan-Hsuan; Chu, Chun-Kuang

    2014-05-01

    Soil erosion models are essential in developing effective soil and water resource conservation strategies. Soil erosion is generally evaluated using the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with an appropriate regional scale description. Among factors in the USLE model, the rainfall erosivity index (R) provides one of the clearest indications of the effects of climate change. Accurate estimation of rainfall erosivity requires continuous rainfall data; however, such data rarely demonstrate good spatial and temporal coverage. The data set consisted of 9240 storm events for the period 1993 to 2011, monitored by 27 rainfall stations of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in southern Taiwan, was used to analyze the temporal-spatial variations of rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution map was plotted based on rainfall erosivity by the Kriging interpolation method. Results indicated that rainfall erosivity is mainly concentrated in rainy season from June to November typically contributed 90% of the yearly R factor. The temporal variations of monthly rainfall erosivity during June to November and annual rainfall erosivity have increasing trend from 1993 to 2011. There is an increasing trend from southwest to northeast in spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity in southern Taiwan. The results further indicated that there is a higher relationship between elevation and rainfall erosivity. The method developed in this study may also be useful for sediment disasters on Climate Change.

  20. Long-term variation of atmospheric beryllium-7 in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu-Ming Lin; Chi-Chang Liu; Ching-Jiang Chen

    1996-01-01

    Taiwan Radiation Monitoring Center (TRMC) has measured the concentration of atmospheric 7 Be at tile four stations on Taiwan for almost twenty years. Gamma emitting nuclides have been collected by air samplers and measured by gamma spectrometry. Cosmogenic 7 Be and other man-made radionuclides produced by Chinese nuclear weapon testings have been detected. Compared with 7 Be, man-made nuclides vanished quickly because of their short half life. The behaviour of 7 Be in long-term concentration variation is different between northern and southern Taiwan because of local meteorological conditions. Tile results of Fourier analysis show that washout effect of rainfalls and transportation from stratosphere to troposphere are closely related to tile variation of 7Be concentration in near surface air. All the measured data of 7 Be show that tile characteristic of yearly data coincides with tile 11-year solar cycle. (author)

  1. Origins and interrelationship of Intraseasonal rainfall variations around the Maritime Continent during boreal winter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xi; Wu, Renguang

    2018-04-01

    Large intraseasonal rainfall variations are identified over the southern South China Sea (SSCS), tropical southeastern Indian Ocean (SEIO), and east coast of the Philippines (EPHI) in boreal winter. The present study contrasts origins and propagations and investigates interrelations of intraseasonal rainfall variations on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales in these regions. Different origins are identified for intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the SSCS, SEIO, and EPHI on both time scales. On the 10-20-day time scale, strong northerly or northeasterly wind anomalies related to the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) play a major role in intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI. On the 30-60-day time scale, both the intraseasonal signal from the tropical Indian Ocean and the EAWM-related wind anomalies contribute to intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS, whereas the EAWM-related wind anomalies have a major contribution to the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the EPHI. No relation is detected between the intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SEIO and the EAWM on both the 10-20-day and 30-60-day time scales. The anomalies associated with intraseasonal rainfall variations over the SSCS and EPHI propagate northwestward and northeastward, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales. The intraseasonal rainfall anomalies display northwestward and northward propagation over the Bay of Bengal, respectively, on the 10-20- and 30-60-day time scales.

  2. Effect of variations in rainfall intensity on slope stability in Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christofer Kristo

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Numerous scientific evidence has given credence to the true existence and deleterious impacts of climate change. One aspect of climate change is the variations in rainfall patterns, which affect the flux boundary condition across ground surface. A possible disastrous consequence of this change is the occurrence of rainfall-induced slope failures. This paper aims to investigate the variations in rainfall patterns in Singapore and its effect on slope stability. Singapore's historical rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 were obtained and analysed by duration using linear regression. A general increasing trend was observed in both weather stations, with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events, despite being statistically insignificant according to the Mann-Kendall test. Using the derived trends, projected rainfall intensities in 2050 and 2100 were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses performed on a typical residual soil slope in Singapore. A significant reduction in factor of safety was observed in the next 50 years, with only a marginal decrease in factor of safety in the subsequent 50 years. This indicates a possible detrimental effect of variations in rainfall patterns on slope stability in Singapore, especially in the next 50 years. The statistical analyses on rainfall data from Seletar and Paya Lebar weather stations for the period of 1985–2009 indicated that rainfall intensity tend to increase over the years, with a possible shift to longer duration rainfall events in the future. The stability analyses showed a significant decrease in factor of safety from 2003 to 2050 due to increase in rainfall intensity, suggesting that a climate change might have existed beyond 2009 with possibly detrimental effects to slope stability. Keywords: Climate change, Rainfall, Seepage, Slope stability

  3. Short-term variations of Icelandic ice cap mass inferred from cGPS coordinate time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Compton, Kathleen; Bennett, Richard A.; Hreinsdóttir, Sigrún

    2017-01-01

    As the global climate changes, understanding short-term variations in water storage is increasingly important. Continuously operating Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations in Iceland record annual periodic motion—the elastic response to winter accumulation and spring melt seasons—with peak-to...

  4. Regional variation in short distance homogamy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haandrikman, K.; van Wissen, L.J.G.

    2011-01-01

    A third of all Dutch cohabiters choose a partner from the same municipality, so-called short distance homogamy. This article analyses the regional variation in this phenomenon, and it explains this variation in terms of geographical, socioeconomic, demographic and cultural determinants. Population

  5. Exploring the Variability of Short-term Precipitation and Hydrological Response of Small Czech Watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavka, Petr; Strouhal, Ludek; Weyskrabova, Lenka; Müller, Miloslav; Kozant, Petr

    2017-04-01

    The short-term rainfall temporal distribution is known to have a significant effect on the small watersheds' hydrological response. In Czech Republic there are limited publicly available data on rainfall patterns of short-term precipitation. On one side there are catalogues of very short-term synthetic rainfalls used in urban drainage planning and on the other side hourly distribution of daily totals of rainfalls with long return period for larger catchments analyses. This contribution introduces the preliminary outcomes of a running three years' project, which should bridge this gap and provide such data and methodology to the community of scientists, state administration as well as design planners. Six generalized 6-hours hyetographs with 1 minute resolution were derived from 10 years of radar and gauging stations data. These hyetographs are accompanied with information concerning the region of occurrence as well as their frequency related to the rainfall amount. In the next step these hyetographs are used in a complex sensitivity analysis focused on a rainfall-runoff response of small watersheds. This analysis takes into account the uncertainty related to type of the hydrological model, watershed characteristics and main model routines parameterization. Five models with different methods and structure are considered and each model is applied on 5 characteristic watersheds selected from a classification of 7700 small Czech watersheds. For each combination of model and watershed 30, rainfall scenarios were simulated and other scenarios will be used to address the parameters uncertainty. In the last step the variability of outputs will be assessed in the context of economic impacts on design of landscape water structures or mitigation measures. The research is supported by the grant QJ1520265 of the Czech Ministry of Agriculture, rainfall data were provided by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.

  6. Some analysis on the diurnal variation of rainfall over the Atlantic Ocean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, T.; Perng, S.; Hughes, A.

    1981-01-01

    Data collected from the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) was examined. The data were collected from 10,000 grid points arranged as a 100 x 100 array; each grid covered a 4 square km area. The amount of rainfall was measured every 15 minutes during the experiment periods using c-band radars. Two types of analyses were performed on the data: analysis of diurnal variation was done on each of grid points based on the rainfall averages at noon and at midnight, and time series analysis on selected grid points based on the hourly averages of rainfall. Since there are no known distribution model which best describes the rainfall amount, nonparametric methods were used to examine the diurnal variation. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used to test if the rainfalls at noon and at midnight have the same statistical distribution. Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to test if the noon rainfall is heavier than, equal to, or lighter than the midnight rainfall. These tests were done on each of the 10,000 grid points at which the data are available.

  7. Short communication: Effects of summer rainfall variations on sheep body state and farming sustainability in sub-Mediterranean pastoral systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Scocco

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In sub-Mediterranean climate the grassland aboveground phytomass production peaks in late spring and drops in summer, when the decrease of the pasture feed value may lead to the worsening of the animal welfare. Our goal was to define the summer rainfall values leading to a decrease of semi-extensive farming system sustainability in sub-Mediterranean regions. Summer rainfall variations reflect in the aboveground phytomass production and on the sheep body state. Differences of body condition score (BCS among years were significant in late summer, which is the mating period for sheep. In the driest year the BCS of end August drops down to 2.1, largely below the value considered sufficient to ensure the animal breeding/milking performances (2.5. Reduction of summer rainfall greater than 15–20% compared to the normal average value (thus less than expected by the scenario of climate change might be detrimental for semi-extensive rearing sustainability in sub-Mediterranean climate.

  8. Short communication: Effects of summer rainfall variations on sheep body state and farming sustainability in sub-Mediterranean pastoral systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scocco, P.; Piermarteri, K.; Malfatti, A.; Tardella, F.M.; Catorci, A.

    2016-11-01

    In sub-Mediterranean climate the grassland aboveground phytomass production peaks in late spring and drops in summer, when the decrease of the pasture feed value may lead to the worsening of the animal welfare. Our goal was to define the summer rainfall values leading to a decrease of semi-extensive farming system sustainability in sub-Mediterranean regions. Summer rainfall variations reflect in the aboveground phytomass production and on the sheep body state. Differences of body condition score (BCS) among years were significant in late summer, which is the mating period for sheep. In the driest year the BCS of end August drops down to 2.1, largely below the value considered sufficient to ensure the animal breeding/milking performances (2.5). Reduction of summer rainfall greater than 15–20% compared to the normal average value (thus less than expected by the scenario of climate change) might be detrimental for semi-extensive rearing sustainability in sub-Mediterranean climate. (Author)

  9. Interdecadal change of the controlling mechanisms for East Asian early summer rainfall variation around the mid-1990s

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Kwon, MinHo

    2014-03-01

    East Asian (EA) summer monsoon shows considerable differences in the mean state and principal modes of interannual variation between early summer (May-June, MJ) and late summer (July-August, JA). The present study focuses on the early summer (MJ) precipitation variability. We find that the interannual variation of the MJ precipitation and the processes controlling the variation have been changed abruptly around the mid-1990s. The rainfall anomaly represented by the leading empirical orthogonal function has changed from a dipole-like pattern in pre-95 epoch (1979-1994) to a tripole-like pattern in post-95 epoch (1995-2010); the prevailing period of the corresponding principal component has also changed from 3-5 to 2-3 years. These changes are concurrent with the changes of the corresponding El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolutions. During the pre-95 epoch, the MJ EA rainfall anomaly is coupled to a slow decay of canonical ENSO events signified by an eastern Pacific warming, which induces a dipole rainfall feature over EA. On the other hand, during the post-95 epoch the anomalous MJ EA rainfall is significantly linked to a rapid decay of a central Pacific warming and a distinct tripolar sea surface temperature (SST) in North Atlantic. The central Pacific warming-induced Philippine Sea anticyclone induces an increased rainfall in southern China and decreased rainfall in central eastern China. The North Atlantic Oscillation-related tripolar North Atlantic SST anomaly induces a wave train that is responsible for the increase northern EA rainfall. Those two impacts form the tripole-like rainfall pattern over EA. Understanding such changes is important for improving seasonal to decadal predictions and long-term climate change in EA.

  10. Hurricane Arthur and its effect on the short term variation of pCO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemay, Jonathan; Thomas, Helmuth; Craig, Susanne; Greenan, Blair; Fennel, Katja

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal changes in carbon cycling over the years have become better understood on the Scotian Shelf, however little is resolved in short term variation. Hourly measurements were collected from an autonomous moored instrument (CARIOCA) stationed at Halifax Line 2 (HL2), roughly 30km off the coast of Halifax for the 2014 year. Data from the 2007 deployment of the SeaHorse vertical sampling mooring at HL2 was also collected. Focusing on the storm event, Hurricane Arthur, July 5th 2014 reveals a significant drop in pCO2. With the shelf having carbon rich deep water, a reduction of pCO2 due to mixing went against current understanding. It was revealed that slightly above the mixed layer there is a sustained population of phytoplankton. When wind mixing from storms occurs, this population moves to the surface allowing greater light and nutrients for short term growth. This growth then reduces pCO2 for a short period of time until wind speeds slow down reducing mixing of the water column.

  11. Short-term variations of Icelandic ice cap mass inferred from cGPS coordinate time series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Compton, Kathleen; Bennett, Richard A.; Hreinsdóttir, Sigrún

    2017-01-01

    As the global climate changes, understanding short-term variations in water storage is increasingly important. Continuously operating Global Positioning System (cGPS) stations in Iceland record annual periodic motion—the elastic response to winter accumulation and spring melt seasons—with peak-to...... insulation in response to tephra deposition following volcanic eruptions, processes that are not resolved with once or twice-yearly stake measurements....

  12. Short- and long-term variations in non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kanters, J K; Højgaard, M V; Agner, E

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The purpose of the study was to investigate the short- and long-term variations in the non-linear dynamics of heart rate variability, and to determine the relationships between conventional time and frequency domain methods and the newer non-linear methods of characterizing heart rate...... rate and describes mainly linear correlations. Non-linear predictability is correlated with heart rate variability measured as the standard deviation of the R-R intervals and the respiratory activity expressed as power of the high-frequency band. The dynamics of heart rate variability changes suddenly...

  13. Variation in Parasympathetic Dysregulation Moderates Short-term Memory Problems in Childhood Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Anthony R; Alarcón, Gabriela; Nigg, Joel T; Musser, Erica D

    2015-11-01

    Although attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with impairment in working memory and short-term memory, up to half of individual children with ADHD perform within a normative range. Heterogeneity in other ADHD-related mechanisms, which may compensate for or combine with cognitive weaknesses, is a likely explanation. One candidate is the robustness of parasympathetic regulation (as indexed by respiratory sinus arrhythmia; RSA). Theory and data suggest that a common neural network is likely tied to both heart-rate regulation and certain cognitive functions (including aspects of working and short-term memory). Cardiac-derived indices of parasympathetic reactivity were collected during short-term memory (STM) storage and rehearsal tasks from 243 children (116 ADHD, 127 controls). ADHD was associated with lower STM performance, replicating previous work. In addition, RSA reactivity moderated the association between STM and ADHD - both as a category and a dimension - independent of comorbidity. Specifically, conditional effects revealed that high levels of withdrawal interacted with weakened STM but high levels of augmentation moderated a positive association predicting ADHD. Thus, variations in parasympathetic reactivity may help explain neuropsychological heterogeneity in ADHD.

  14. Short-term variability of CYG X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, M.; Doi, K.; Ogawara, Y.; Takagishi, K.; Wada, M.

    1975-01-01

    The short-term X-ray variability distinguishes Cyg X-1, which is the most likely candidate of the black hole, from other X-ray sources. Present status of our knowledge on this short-term variation mainly from the Uhuru, the MIT and the GSFC observations is reviewed. The nature of impulsive variations which compose the time variation exceeding the statistical fluctuation is discussed. There are indications that the energy spectrum of large pulses is harder than the average spectrum or the large pulses are the characteristics of the hard component of the spectrum if it is composed of two, soft and hard, components. Features of the variations may be partly simulated by the superposition of random short-noise pulses with a fraction of a second duration. However, the autocorrelation analysis and the dynamic spectrum analysis indicate that the correlation lasts for several seconds and in the variation buried are some regularities which exhibit power concentrations in several frequency bands; 0.2 -- 0.3, 0.4 -- 0.5, 0.8, 1.2 -- 1.5 Hz. There are several possible interpretation of these results in terms of: e.g. a) a mixture of short-noise pulses with two or more constant durations, b) the shape of the basic shot-noise pulse, c) bunching of the pulses, d) superposition of wave-packets or temporal oscillations. But we have not yet reached any definite understandings in the nature of the variabilities. The sub-structure of the fluctuations on a time scale of milli-second suggested by two investigations is also discussed. (auth.)

  15. Estimation and analysis of the short-term variations of multi-GNSS receiver differential code biases using global ionosphere maps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Min; Yuan, Yunbin; Wang, Ningbo; Liu, Teng; Chen, Yongchang

    2017-12-01

    Care should be taken to minimize the adverse impact of differential code biases (DCBs) on global navigation satellite systems (GNSS)-derived ionospheric information determinations. For the sake of convenience, satellite and receiver DCB products provided by the International GNSS Service (IGS) are treated as constants over a period of 24 h (Li et al. (2014)). However, if DCB estimates show remarkable intra-day variability, the DCBs estimated as constants over 1-day period will partially account for ionospheric modeling error; in this case DCBs will be required to be estimated over shorter time period. Therefore, it is important to further gain insight into the short-term variation characteristics of receiver DCBs. In this contribution, the IGS combined global ionospheric maps and the German Aerospace Center (DLR)-provided satellite DCBs are used in the improved method to determine the multi-GNSS receiver DCBs with an hourly time resolution. The intra-day stability of the receiver DCBs is thereby analyzed in detail. Based on 1 month of data collected within the multi-GNSS experiment of the IGS, a good agreement within the receiver DCBs is found between the resulting receiver DCB estimates and multi-GNSS DCB products from the DLR at a level of 0.24 ns for GPS, 0.28 ns for GLONASS, 0.28 ns for BDS, and 0.30 ns for Galileo. Although most of the receiver DCBs are relatively stable over a 1-day period, large fluctuations (more than 9 ns between two consecutive hours) within the receiver DCBs can be found. We also demonstrate the impact of the significant short-term variations in receiver DCBs on the extraction of ionospheric total electron content (TEC), at a level of 12.96 TECu (TEC unit). Compared to daily receiver DCB estimates, the hourly DCB estimates obtained from this study can reflect the short-term variations of the DCB estimates more dedicatedly. The main conclusion is that preliminary analysis of characteristics of receiver DCB variations over short-term

  16. Biological control of short-term variations in the concentration of DMSP and DMS during a Phaeocystis spring bloom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Duyl, FC; Gieskes, WWC; Kop, AJ; Lewis, WE

    1998-01-01

    In the spring of 1995. short-term variations in the concentration of particulate and dissolved dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) and dimethylsulfide (DMS) were monitored in the western Wadden Sea, a shallow coastal region in open connection with the North Sea. Significant correlations were found

  17. Use of 7Be to document soil erosion associated with a short period of extreme rainfall

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sepulveda, A.; Schuller, P.; Walling, D.E.; Castillo, A.

    2008-01-01

    Intensification and expansion of agricultural production since the 1970s have increased soil erosion problems in south-central Chile. Quantitative information on soil loss is needed for erosion risk assessment and to establish the effectiveness of improved land management practices. Since information from traditional sources, such as erosion plots, is limited, attention has been directed to the use of environmental radionuclides for documenting erosion rates. Cs-137 has been successfully utilised for this purpose, but only provides information on medium-term erosion rates. There is also a need to document event-related soil erosion. This paper outlines the basis for using 7 Be measurements to document short-term erosion and reports its successful use for quantifying the erosion that occurred within an arable field, as a result of a period of heavy rainfall (400 mm in 27 days) occurring in May 2005. The study field had been under a no-till, no-burning system for 18 years, but immediately prior to the period of heavy rainfall the harvest residues were burnt. The erosion recorded therefore reflected both the extreme nature of the rainfall and the effects of the burning in increasing surface runoff and erosion. The sampled area corresponded to that used previously by the authors to document the medium-term erosion rates associated with both conventional tillage and the subsequent switch to a no-till system. Comparisons between the erosion documented for the period of heavy rainfall in 2005 with these medium-term erosion rates permits some tentative conclusions regarding the importance of extreme events and the impact of burning in increasing the erosion associated with the no-till system

  18. Short- and long-term reproducibility of radioisotopic examination of gastric emptying

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jonderko, K. (Silesian School of Medicine, Katowice (Poland). Dept. of Gastroenterology)

    1990-01-01

    Reproducibility of gastric emptying (GE) of a radiolabelled solid meal was assessed. The short-term reproducibility was evaluated on the basis of 12 paired GE examinations performed 1-3 days apart. Twelve paired GE examinations taken 3-8 months apart enabled long-term reproducibility assessment. Reproducibility of GE parameters was expressed in terms of the coefficient of variation, CV. No significant between-day variation of solid GE was found either regarding the short-term or the long-term reproducibility. Although slightly higher CV values characterized the long-term reproducibility of the GE parameters considered, the variations of the differences between repeated GE examinations did not differ significantly between short- and long-term GE reproducibility. The results obtained justify the use of radioisotopic GE measurement for the assessment of early and late results of pharmacologic or surgical management. (author).

  19. Non-parametric characterization of long-term rainfall time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiwari, Harinarayan; Pandey, Brij Kishor

    2018-03-01

    The statistical study of rainfall time series is one of the approaches for efficient hydrological system design. Identifying, and characterizing long-term rainfall time series could aid in improving hydrological systems forecasting. In the present study, eventual statistics was applied for the long-term (1851-2006) rainfall time series under seven meteorological regions of India. Linear trend analysis was carried out using Mann-Kendall test for the observed rainfall series. The observed trend using the above-mentioned approach has been ascertained using the innovative trend analysis method. Innovative trend analysis has been found to be a strong tool to detect the general trend of rainfall time series. Sequential Mann-Kendall test has also been carried out to examine nonlinear trends of the series. The partial sum of cumulative deviation test is also found to be suitable to detect the nonlinear trend. Innovative trend analysis, sequential Mann-Kendall test and partial cumulative deviation test have potential to detect the general as well as nonlinear trend for the rainfall time series. Annual rainfall analysis suggests that the maximum changes in mean rainfall is 11.53% for West Peninsular India, whereas the maximum fall in mean rainfall is 7.8% for the North Mountainous Indian region. The innovative trend analysis method is also capable of finding the number of change point available in the time series. Additionally, we have performed von Neumann ratio test and cumulative deviation test to estimate the departure from homogeneity. Singular spectrum analysis has been applied in this study to evaluate the order of departure from homogeneity in the rainfall time series. Monsoon season (JS) of North Mountainous India and West Peninsular India zones has higher departure from homogeneity and singular spectrum analysis shows the results to be in coherence with the same.

  20. Long term oscillations in Danish rainfall extremes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, Henrik; Rosbjerg, Dan

    The frequent flooding of European cities within the last decade has motivated a vast number of studies, among others addressing the non-stationary behaviour of hydrological extremes driven by anthropogenic climate change. However, when considering future extremes it also becomes relevant to search...... for and understand natural variations on which the anthropogenic changes are imposed. This study identifies multi-decadal variations in six 137-years-long diurnal rainfall series from Denmark and southern Sweden, focusing on extremes with a reoccurrence level relevant for Danish drainage design. By means of a Peak...

  1. Evaluating short-term hydro-meteorological fluxes using GRACE-derived water storage changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eicker, A.; Jensen, L.; Springer, A.; Kusche, J.

    2017-12-01

    Atmospheric and terrestrial water budgets, which represent important boundary conditions for both climate modeling and hydrological studies, are linked by evapotranspiration (E) and precipitation (P). These fields are provided by numerical weather prediction models and atmospheric reanalyses such as ERA-Interim and MERRA-Land; yet, in particular the quality of E is still not well evaluated. Via the terrestrial water budget equation, water storage changes derived from products of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, combined with runoff (R) data can be used to assess the realism of atmospheric models. In this contribution we will investigate the closure of the water balance for short-term fluxes, i.e. the agreement of GRACE water storage changes with P-E-R flux time series from different (global and regional) atmospheric reanalyses, land surface models, as well as observation-based data sets. Missing river runoff observations will be extrapolated using the calibrated rainfall-runoff model GR2M. We will perform a global analysis and will additionally focus on selected river basins in West Africa. The investigations will be carried out for various temporal scales, focusing on short-term fluxes down to daily variations to be detected in daily GRACE time series.

  2. LISA Pathfinder test-mass charging during galactic cosmic-ray flux short-term variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimani, C.; Fabi, M.; Lobo, A.; Mateos, I.; Telloni, D.

    2015-02-01

    Metal free-floating test masses aboard the future interferometers devoted to gravitational wave detection in space are charged by galactic and solar cosmic rays with energies \\gt 100 MeV/n. This process represents one of the main sources of noise in the lowest frequency band (\\lt 10-3 Hz) of these experiments. We study here the charging of the LISA Pathfinder (LISA-PF) gold-platinum test masses due to galactic cosmic-ray (GCR) protons and helium nuclei with the Fluka Monte Carlo toolkit. Projections of the energy spectra of GCRs during the LISA-PF operations in 2015 are considered. This work was carried out on the basis of the solar activity level and solar polarity epoch expected for LISA-PF. The effects of GCR short-term variations are evaluated here for the first time. Classical Forbush decreases, GCR variations induced by the Sun rotation, and fluctuations in the LISA-PF frequency bandwidth are discussed.

  3. Variation of Rainfall in Three Nigerian Stations, Using harmonic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work is on the variation of rainfall using harmonic analysis for Portharcourt, Kano and Makurdi data, for the three stations the period of study covered 1977 to 2010, for which the time series plot, the amplitude, the first, second and third harmonics were generated. Portharcourt has a gently increasing trend with ...

  4. Variations of extreme rainfall in space and time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2012-01-01

    variation, whereas annual variations are related to changes in the average Danish summer precipitation, the average Danish summer temperature and the East Atlantic pattern. The spatio-temporal Poisson regression model was found to be a helpful tool when comparing the internal importance of these variables......In the ongoing climate change discussion, methods for identification of variability governed by climate change are important tools. The magnitude of variables that can describe this variability should be compared with magnitudes of variables describing variability in a stationary setting....... This study focuses on variations of extreme rainfall events, observed at 70 different locations in Denmark over a period of 31 years. The aim is to identify and compare variables, both spatially and temporally, which can explain different parts of the variability in this data set. Assuming that the number...

  5. Long- and short-term temporal variations of the diffuse CO2 emission from Timanfaya volcano, Lanzarote, Canary Islands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, P. A.; Padilla, G.; Calvo, D.; Padrón, E.; Melian, G.; Dionis, S.; Nolasco, D.; Barrancos, J.; Rodríguez, F.; Pérez, N.

    2012-04-01

    means of a thermocouple together with soil gas samples collected during the campaign of 2010 to evaluate the chemical and isotopic composition of soil gases. Diffuse CO2 emission values have ranged between non detectable values to 34 g m-2 d-1, and most of the study area have shown relatively low values, around the detection limit of the instrument (~0,5 g m-2 d-1). Higher soil CO2 diffuse emission values were observed where thermal anomalies occur, indicating a convective mechanism transport of gas from depth at these areas. Total CO2 outputs of the study area have been estimated in the range 41-518 t d-1 during the study period. Long-term temporal variation on total CO2 diffuse emission shows a peak recorded on winter 2011, suggesting a seasonal control on the CO2 emission. As part of the volcanic surveillance program and to understand the dynamics of CO2 diffuse emission at Timanfaya volcanic zone, an automatic geochemical station was installed in July 2010 to monitor the CO2 emission and investigate the short-term temporal variation. Time series of soil CO2 efflux shows also a close relationship with seasonal changes mainly due to rainfall.

  6. Do the earth tides have an influence on short-term variations in radon concentration?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barnet, I.; Prochazka, J.; Skalsky, L.

    1997-01-01

    The short term (diurnal) indoor radon variations are often explained as a result of temperature and air pressure changes inside a dwelling (the so-called stack effect). The observations of indoor and soil gas radon variations related to the temperature and pressure variations in a test dwelling at Lipova, Northern Bohemia, have not proved the expected correlation between the radon and climatic parameters. The stack effect was clearly observed at the beginning of the four week cycles, when the indoor temperature growth was obvious. However, the indoor radon variations were of the same range or higher than at the beginning of the cycles during the whole week cycles, even when the temperature changes were of the 1-3 o C range. A theory is therefore presented, supported by the known fluctuations of the groundwater level caused by the Earth tides, and the widely observed free air radon variations. According to this theory, the Earth tides lead to the compression of the aquifers and synchronous rise of the groundwater level, which displaces the soil gas with radon into the atmosphere or dwellings. The Earth tide components were calculated for the studied locality and time intervals. The very good phase fit of the amplitudes of gravity variations, vertical and volume strain and vertical displacement with the indoor radon variations was found. This agreement leads to the conclusion that the Earth tides can be considered as one of the causes of the indoor radon variations. This conclusion is also supported by the observations of the radon variations in the underground unventilated spaces under constant temperature and air pressure conditions. (Author)

  7. Development and evaluation of a stochastic daily rainfall model with long-term variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamal Chowdhury, A. F. M.; Lockart, Natalie; Willgoose, Garry; Kuczera, George; Kiem, Anthony S.; Parana Manage, Nadeeka

    2017-12-01

    The primary objective of this study is to develop a stochastic rainfall generation model that can match not only the short resolution (daily) variability but also the longer resolution (monthly to multiyear) variability of observed rainfall. This study has developed a Markov chain (MC) model, which uses a two-state MC process with two parameters (wet-to-wet and dry-to-dry transition probabilities) to simulate rainfall occurrence and a gamma distribution with two parameters (mean and standard deviation of wet day rainfall) to simulate wet day rainfall depths. Starting with the traditional MC-gamma model with deterministic parameters, this study has developed and assessed four other variants of the MC-gamma model with different parameterisations. The key finding is that if the parameters of the gamma distribution are randomly sampled each year from fitted distributions rather than fixed parameters with time, the variability of rainfall depths at both short and longer temporal resolutions can be preserved, while the variability of wet periods (i.e. number of wet days and mean length of wet spell) can be preserved by decadally varied MC parameters. This is a straightforward enhancement to the traditional simplest MC model and is both objective and parsimonious.

  8. Regional frequency analysis of short duration rainfall extremes using gridded daily rainfall data as co-variate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Gregersen, Ida Bülow; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2017-01-01

    with daily measurements. The Poisson rate is positively correlated to the mean annual precipitation for all durations considered (1 min to 48 hours). The mean intensity can be assumed constant over Denmark for durations up to 1 hour. For durations larger than 1 hour the mean intensity is significantly...... correlated to the mean extreme daily precipitation. A Generalised Pareto distribution with a regional constant shape parameter is adopted. Compared to previous regional studies in Denmark a general increase in extreme rainfall intensity for durations up to 1 hour is found, whereas for larger durations both...

  9. The added value of stochastic spatial disaggregation for short-term rainfall forecasts currently available in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gagnon, Patrick; Rousseau, Alain N.; Charron, Dominique; Fortin, Vincent; Audet, René

    2017-11-01

    Several businesses and industries rely on rainfall forecasts to support their day-to-day operations. To deal with the uncertainty associated with rainfall forecast, some meteorological organisations have developed products, such as ensemble forecasts. However, due to the intensive computational requirements of ensemble forecasts, the spatial resolution remains coarse. For example, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS) data is freely available on a 1-degree grid (about 100 km), while those of the so-called High Resolution Deterministic Prediction System (HRDPS) are available on a 2.5-km grid (about 40 times finer). Potential users are then left with the option of using either a high-resolution rainfall forecast without uncertainty estimation and/or an ensemble with a spectrum of plausible rainfall values, but at a coarser spatial scale. The objective of this study was to evaluate the added value of coupling the Gibbs Sampling Disaggregation Model (GSDM) with ECCC products to provide accurate, precise and consistent rainfall estimates at a fine spatial resolution (10-km) within a forecast framework (6-h). For 30, 6-h, rainfall events occurring within a 40,000-km2 area (Québec, Canada), results show that, using 100-km aggregated reference rainfall depths as input, statistics of the rainfall fields generated by GSDM were close to those of the 10-km reference field. However, in forecast mode, GSDM outcomes inherit of the ECCC forecast biases, resulting in a poor performance when GEPS data were used as input, mainly due to the inherent rainfall depth distribution of the latter product. Better performance was achieved when the Regional Deterministic Prediction System (RDPS), available on a 10-km grid and aggregated at 100-km, was used as input to GSDM. Nevertheless, most of the analyzed ensemble forecasts were weakly consistent. Some areas of improvement are identified herein.

  10. Future rainfall variations reduce abundances of aboveground arthropods in model agroecosystems with different soil types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johann G. Zaller

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios for Central Europe predict less frequent but heavier rainfalls and longer drought periods during the growing season. This is expected to alter arthropods in agroecosystems that are important as biocontrol agents, herbivores or food for predators (e.g. farmland birds. In a lysimeter facility (totally 18 3-m2-plots, we experimentally tested the effects of long-term past vs. prognosticated future rainfall variations (15% increased rainfall per event, 25% more dry days according to regionalized climate change models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC on aboveground arthropods in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L. cultivated at three different soil types (calcaric phaeozem, calcic chernozem and gleyic phaeozem. Soil types were established 17 years and rainfall treatments one month before arthropod sampling; treatments were fully crossed and replicated three times. Aboveground arthropods were assessed by suction sampling, their mean abundances (± SD differed between April, May and June with 20 ± 3 m-2, 90 ± 35 m-2 and 289 ± 93 individuals m-2, respectively. Averaged across sampling dates, future rainfall reduced the abundance of spiders (Araneae, -47%, cicadas and leafhoppers (Auchenorrhyncha, -39%, beetles (Coleoptera, -52%, ground beetles (Carabidae, -41%, leaf beetles (Chrysomelidae, -64%, spring tails (Collembola, -58%, flies (Diptera, -73% and lacewings (Neuroptera, -73% but increased the abundance of snails (Gastropoda, +69%. Across sampling dates, soil types had no effects on arthropod abundances. Arthropod diversity was neither affected by rainfall nor soil types. Arthropod abundance was positively correlated with weed biomass for almost all taxa; abundance of Hemiptera and of total arthropods was positively correlated with weed density. These detrimental effects of future rainfall varieties on arthropod taxa in wheat fields can potentially alter arthropod-associated agroecosystem services.

  11. The effects of long-term variation in rainfall and dry matter ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    track herds or flocks and associated cash flows through sequences of different climatic years, or years of different bio- logical quality (Foran & Stafford Smith, l99l). Procedure. In the more arid grazing zones of South Africa, many of the problems faced by livestock producers can be related to the effects of rainfall, both the ...

  12. Effect of Variations in Long-Duration Rainfall Intensity on Unsaturated Slope Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hsin-Fu Yeh

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, many scientific methods have been used to prove that the Earth’s climate is changing. Climate change can affect rainfall patterns, which can in turn affect slope safety. Therefore, this study analyzed the effects of climate change on rainfall patterns from the perspective of rainfall intensity. This analysis was combined with numerical model analysis to examine the rainfall patterns of the Zengwen reservoir catchment area and its effects on slope stability. In this study, the Mann–Kendall test and the Theil–Sen estimator were used to analyze the rainfall records of rainfall stations at Da-Dong-Shan, Ma-To-Shan, and San-Jiao-Nan-Shan. The rainfall intensity of the Zengwen reservoir catchment area showed an increasing trend from 1990–2016. In addition, the analysis results of rainfall intensity trends were used for qualitative analysis of seepage and slope stability. The trend analysis result showed that in the future, from 2017–2100, if the amount of rainfall per hour continues to rise at about 0.1 mm per year, the amount of seepage will increase at the slope surface boundary and significantly change pore water pressure in the soil. As a result, the time of the occurrence of slope instability after the start of rainfall will decrease from 20 to 13 h, and the reduction in the safety coefficient will increase from 32 to 41%. Therefore, to decrease the effects of slope disasters on the safety of the Zengwen reservoir and its surrounding areas, changes in rainfall intensity trends should be considered for slope safety in this region. However, the results of trend analyses were weak and future research is needed using a wider range of precipitation data and detailed hydrological analysis to better predict rainfall pattern variations.

  13. Short-term variability of Cyg X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, M.; Doi, K.; Ogawara, Y.

    1976-01-01

    The short-term X-ray variability distinguishes Cyg X-1, which is the most likely candidate for a black hole, from other X-ray sources. The present status of our knowledge on this short-term variation, mainly from the UHURU, the MIT and the GSFC observations, is reviewed. The nature of impulsive variations which compose the time variation exceeding the statistical fluctuation is discussed. There are indications that the energy spectrum of large pulses is harder than the average spectrum, or that the large pulses are the characteristics of the hard component of the spectrum if it is composed of two, soft and hard, components. Features of the variations may be partly simulated by the superposition of random shot-noise pulses with a fraction of a second duration. However, the autocorrelation analysis and the dynamic spectrum analysis indicate that the correlation lasts for several seconds and in the variation are buried some regularities which exhibit power concentrations in several frequency bands; 0.2-0.3, 0.4-0.5, 0.8, 1.2-1.5 Hz. There are several possible interpretations of these results in terms of; e.g. (a) a mixture of shot-noise pulses with two or more constant durations, (b) the shape of the basic shot-noise pulse, (c) bunching of the pulses, (d) superposition of wave-packets or temporal oscillations. But we have not yet reached any definite understandings in the nature of the variabilities. The substructure of the fluctuations on a time scale of milliseconds suggested by two investigations is also discussed. (Auth.)

  14. THE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL FALLEN IN SHORT PERIODS OF TIME IN THE HILLY AREA OF CLUJ COUNTY - GENESIS, DISTRIBUTION AND PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BLAGA IRINA

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The maximum amounts of rainfall are usually characterized by high intensity, and their effects on the substrate are revealed, at slope level, by the deepening of the existing forms of torrential erosion and also by the formation of new ones, and by landslide processes. For the 1971-2000 period, for the weather stations in the hilly area of Cluj County: Cluj- Napoca, Dej, Huedin and Turda the highest values of rainfall amounts fallen in 24, 48 and 72 hours were analyzed and extracted, based on which the variation and the spatial and temporal distribution of the precipitation were analyzed. The annual probability of exceedance of maximum rainfall amounts fallen in short time intervals (24, 48 and 72 hours, based on thresholds and class values was determined, using climatological practices and the Hyfran program facilities.

  15. The influence of ENSO, PDO and PNA on secular rainfall variations in Hawai‘i

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abby G. Frazier; Oliver Elison Timm; Thomas W. Giambelluca; Henry F. Diaz

    2017-01-01

    Over the last century, significant declines in rainfall across the state of Hawai‘i have been observed, and it is unknown whether these declines are due to natural variations in climate, or manifestations of human-induced climate change. Here, a statistical analysis of the observed rainfall variability was applied as first step towards better understanding causes for...

  16. Astronomically forced western African (21°N-20°S) rainfall variations during the Last Interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Govin, Aline; Varma, Vidya; Prange, Matthias

    2013-04-01

    the decrease in June-July-August (JJA) insolation. Although modern JJA rainfall is very limited at 5-10°S, the contribution of JJA precipitation to the annual rainfall amount is enhanced during the LIG. Finally, the data indicate very limited rainfall changes at 20°S during the LIG. The model shows east-west contrasting rainfall patterns in Southern Africa (similarly to what is observed during the Holocene), which lead to negligible rainfall variations when averaged over the core catchment area. To conclude, long-term changes in western African precipitation respond to insolation variations during the LIG, except during its early part when persistent melting of northern ice sheets delayed the intensification of the NW African monsoon.

  17. Dissociating Contents of Consciousness from Contents of Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik; Ásgeirsson, Árni Gunnar; Staugaard, Camilla Funch

    2014-01-01

    The contents of consciousness and of short-term memory are hard to disentangle. As it seems intuitive that we represent attended objects in short-term memory and in experience, to many, it also seems intuitive to equate this content. Here we investigated memory resolution for orientation......” to a “clear experience” of a probed target. To assess memory resolution we used a Landolt-variation on the visual short-term memory (VSTM) resolution paradigm (e.g. Wilken & Ma, 2004). Set-sizes in the memory display were varied between 1, 2, or 4 elements. With increasing set-size we found that both...

  18. Past, present and future variations of extreme rainfall in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gregersen, Ida Bülow

    of non-stationary extreme rainfall behaviour, in Denmark as well as worldwide. To provide recommendations on future design intensities it is necessary to explore and understand patterns of temporal variation in urban design rainfall and identify potential drivers behind past, present and future changes...... to the natural variability, the expected impacts of climate change and their interplay. A large part of the uncertainty is inherent and cannot be reduced. On top of this come the many unknown features in the climate system. The irrational behaviour of mankind contributes to the uncertainty, as it both affects...... the greenhouse gas emissions, and the requirements to cities of the future. Simple case studies based on different decision making frameworks show that the uncertainty of the future is not a hindrance for adaptation....

  19. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duration rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Cui, Xiaopeng; Zhang, Da-Lin; Qiao, Lin

    2017-10-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). An optimal radius of 10 km around selected AWSs is used to determine the lightning-rainfall relationship. The lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly, depending upon the intensity of SDR events. That is, correlation coefficient (R 0.7) for the short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR, i.e., ≥ 20 mm h- 1) events is found higher than that (R 0.4) for the weak SDR (i.e., 5-10 mm h- 1) events, and lower percentage of the SDHR events (< 10%) than the weak SDR events (40-50%) are observed with few flashes. Significant time-lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. Those events with lightning preceding rainfall account for 50-60% of the total SDR events. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time lags are incorporated, with the use of total (CG and IC) lightning data. These results appear to have important implications for improving the nowcast of SDHR events.

  20. Intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall and its related atmospheric circulation features during the 1991 summer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mao, Jiangyu; Wu, Guoxiong [Chinese Academy of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Beijing (China); Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2006-12-15

    The intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall over eastern China and its related atmospheric circulation characteristics during the 1991 summer are examined based on the gauge-observed rainfall and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. Wavelet analysis shows that during the 1991 summer, the active and break sequences of rainfall over the middle and lower Yangtze Basin are mainly regulated by an oscillatory mode with a period of 15-35 days. An investigation of the circulation features suggests that the 15-35-day oscillation is associated with an anomalous low-level cyclone (anticyclone) appearing alternatively over the northern South China Sea (SCS) and the Philippine Sea, and related to a northeastward (southwestward) shift of the western Pacific subtropical anticyclone over the SCS, leading to a lower tropospheric divergence (convergence) over the Yangtze Basin. In the upper troposphere, the 15-35-day oscillation exhibits a dipole anomaly characterized by an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) over eastern China and an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over the northern Tibetan Plateau, resulting in a southwestward shrinking (northeastward extending) of the South Asian anticyclone, and forming a convergence (divergence) over eastern China. Such a coupled anomalous flow pattern between the lower and upper troposphere favors large-scale descending (ascending) motion, and hence reduced (enhanced) rainfall over the Yangtze Basin. Dynamically, the intraseasonal variations in the Yangtze rainfall are mainly determined by the coupling between the low-level relative vorticity and the upper-level divergence. In the middle troposphere, the 15-35-day oscillation of the subtropical high is originated over the central North Pacific north of Hawaii, then propagates westward to the SCS-Philippine Sea, and finally modulates the intraseasonal variations of the Yangtze rainfall. (orig.)

  1. Effects of Temperature, Photoperiod, and Rainfall on Morphometric Variation of Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera: Liviidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Thomson M; Allan, Sandra A; Hall, David G; Hentz, Matthew G; Croxton, Scott D; Ainpudi, Niharika; Stansly, Philip A

    2017-02-01

    Phenotypic plasticity provides a mechanism by which an organism can adapt to new or changing environments. Earlier studies have demonstrated the variability of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Asian citrus psyllid) population dynamics, but no analysis of morphological changes induced by seasonal or artificial laboratory-induced conditions has yet been documented. Such morphometric variation has been found to correspond in dispersal capabilities in several insect taxa. In this study, the effects of temperature and photoperiod on morphometric variation of D. citri were examined through laboratory rearing of psyllids under controlled temperatures (20 °C, 28 °C, and 30 °C) and under a short photoperiod of 10.5:13.5 (L:D) h and a long photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D) h. Diaphorina citri were field-collected monthly from three citrus groves in Fort Pierce, Gainesville, and Immokalee, FL, to evaluate potential field-associated environmental effects. Both traditional and geometric morphometric data were used to analyze the correlation between environmental and morphometric variation. A strong correlation was found between temperature and shape change, with larger and broader wings at colder temperatures in the laboratory. Short day length resulted in shorter and narrower wings as well. From the field, temperature, rainfall, and photoperiod were moderately associated with shape parameters. Adult D. citri with blue/green abdomens collected in the laboratory and field studies were larger in size and shape than those with brown/gray abdomens. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America 2016. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

  2. Assessing the effects of air temperature and rainfall on malaria incidence: an epidemiological study across Rwanda and Uganda

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe J. Colón-González

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the short-term effects of air temperature, rainfall, and socioeconomic indicators on malaria incidence across Rwanda and Uganda from 2002 to 2011. Delayed and nonlinear effects of temperature and rainfall data are estimated using generalised additive mixed models with a distributed lag nonlinear specification. A time series cross-validation algorithm is implemented to select the best subset of socioeconomic predictors and to define the degree of smoothing of the weather variables. Our findings show that trends in malaria incidence agree well with variations in both temperature and rainfall in both countries, although factors other than climate seem to play an important role too. The estimated short-term effects of air temperature and precipitation are nonlinear, in agreement with previous research and the ecology of the disease. These effects are robust to the effects of temporal correlation. The effects of socioeconomic data are difficult to ascertain and require further evaluation with longer time series. Climate-informed models had lower error estimates compared to models with no climatic information in 77 and 60% of the districts in Rwanda and Uganda, respectively. Our results highlight the importance of using climatic information in the analysis of malaria surveillance data, and show potential for the development of climateinformed malaria early warning systems.

  3. Diurnal Variation of Rainfall Associated with Tropical Depression in South China and its Relationship to Land-Sea Contrast and Topography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuchun Zhao

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Convective precipitation associated with tropical depression (TD is one primary type of post-flooding season rainfall in South China (SC. Observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM satellite have shown specific diurnal features of convective rainfall in South China, which is somewhat different from that in other seasons or regions of China. Convective precipitation is usually organized into a rainfall band along the southeastern coast of South China in the early morning hours. The rainfall band develops and intensifies quickly in the morning, then moves inland in the afternoon and, finally, diminishes at night. The daily convective rainfall along the coast is much more than that in the inland region, and heavy rainfall is often found along the coast. A long-duration heavy rainfall event associated with tropical depression “Fitow” during the period from 28 August to 6 September 2001, is selected in this study to explore the diurnal feature of convective rainfall and its formation mechanism. Modeling results of the 10-day heavy rainfall event are compared with both rain-gauge observation and satellite-retrieved rainfall. Total precipitation and its spatial distribution, as well as diurnal variations are reasonably simulated and agree well with observations. Further analysis reveals that the development and movement of convective precipitation is mainly related to the land and sea breezes. The anomalous height-latitudinal circulation in the morning-to-noon hours is completely reversed in the afternoon-to-late-evening hours, with the convective rainfall swinging back and forth, following its updraft branch. Sensitivity experiments show that the afternoon convective rainfall in the inland region of SC is caused by the diurnal variation of solar radiation forcing. The mountain range along the coast and the complex topography in the inland region of SC plays a critical role in the enhancement of diurnal convective rainfall

  4. Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korinko M.D.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

  5. Regimes of Diurnal Variation of Summer Rainfall over Subtropical East Asia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yuan W.; Lin W.; Yu, R.; Zhang, M.; Chen, H.; Li, J.

    2012-05-01

    Using hourly rain gauge records and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 from 1998 to 2006, the authors present an analysis of the diurnal characteristics of summer rainfall over subtropical East Asia. The study shows that there are four different regimes of distinct diurnal variation of rainfall in both the rain gauge and the satellite data. They are located over the Tibetan Plateau with late-afternoon and midnight peaks, in the western China plain with midnight to early-morning peaks, in the eastern China plain with double peaks in late afternoon and early morning, and over the East China Sea with an early-morning peak. No propagation of diurnal phases is found from the land to the ocean across the coastlines. The different diurnal regimes are highly correlated with the inhomogeneous underlying surface, such as the plateau, plain, and ocean, with physical mechanisms consistent with the large-scale 'mountain-valley' and 'land-sea' breezes and convective instability. These diurnal characteristics over subtropical East Asia can be used as diagnostic metrics to evaluate the physical parameterization and hydrological cycle of climate models over East Asia.

  6. Rainfall variability over South-east Asia - connections with Indian monsoon and ENSO extremes: new perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kripalani, R. H.; Kulkarni, Ashwini

    1997-09-01

    Seasonal and annual rainfall data for 135 stations for periods varying from 25 to 125 years are utilized to investigate and understand the interannual and short-term (decadal) climate variability over the South-east Asian domain. Contemporaneous relations during the summer monsoon period (June to September) reveal that the rainfall variations over central India, north China, northern parts of Thailand, central parts of Brunei and Borneo and the Indonesian region east of 120°E vary in phase. However, the rainfall variations over the regions surrounding the South China Sea, in particular the north-west Philippines, vary in the opposite phase. Possible dynamic causes for the spatial correlation structure obtained are discussed.Based on the instrumental data available and on an objective criteria, regional rainfall anomaly time series for contiguous regions over Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, Indonesia and Philippines are prepared. Results reveal that although there are year-to-year random fluctuations, there are certain epochs of the above- and below-normal rainfall over each region. These epochs are not forced by the El Niño/La Nina frequencies. Near the equatorial regions the epochs tend to last for about a decade, whereas over the tropical regions, away from the Equator, epochs last for about three decades. There is no systematic climate change or trend in any of the series. Further, the impact of El Niño (La Nina) on the rainfall regimes is more severe during the below (above) normal epochs than during the above (below) normal epochs. Extreme drought/flood situations tend to occur when the epochal behaviour and the El Niño/La Nina events are phase-locked.

  7. Experimental drought induces short-term changes in soil functionality and microbial community structure after fire in a Mediterranean shrubland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinojosa, M. B.; Parra, A.; Laudicina, V. A.; Moreno, J. M.

    2014-10-01

    Fire is a major ecosystem driver, causing significant changes in soil nutrients and microbial community structure and functionality. Post-fire soil dynamics can vary depending on rainfall patterns, although variations in response to drought are poorly known. This is particularly important in areas with poor soils and limited rainfall, like arid and semiarid ones. Furthermore, climate change projections in many such areas anticipate reduced precipitation and longer drought, together with an increase in fire severity. The effects of experimental drought and fire were studied on soils in a Mediterranean Cistus-Erica shrubland in Central Spain. A replicated (n = 4) field experiment was carried out in which four levels of rainfall pattern were implemented by means of a rain-out shelters and irrigation system. The treatments were: environmental control (natural rainfall), historical control (long-term average rainfall, 2 months drought), moderate drought (25% reduction of historical control, 5 months drought) and severe drought (45% reduction, 7 months drought). After one growing season, the plots were burned with high fire intensity, except a set of unburned plots that served as control. Soils were collected seasonally during one year and variables related to soil nutrient availability and microbial community structure and functionality were studied. Burned soils increased nutrient availability (P, N, K) with respect to unburned ones, but drought reduced such an increase in P, while it further increased N and K. Such changes in available soil nutrients were short-lived. Drought caused a further decrease of enzyme activities, carbon mineralization rate and microbial biomass. Fire decreased the relative abundance of fungi and actinomycetes. However, fire and drought caused a further reduction in fungi, with bacteria becoming relatively more abundant. Arguably, increasing drought and fires due to climate change will likely shift soil recovery after fire.

  8. Variability of rainfall over small areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runnels, R. C.

    1983-01-01

    A preliminary investigation was made to determine estimates of the number of raingauges needed in order to measure the variability of rainfall in time and space over small areas (approximately 40 sq miles). The literature on rainfall variability was examined and the types of empirical relationships used to relate rainfall variations to meteorological and catchment-area characteristics were considered. Relations between the coefficient of variation and areal-mean rainfall and area have been used by several investigators. These parameters seemed reasonable ones to use in any future study of rainfall variations. From a knowledge of an appropriate coefficient of variation (determined by the above-mentioned relations) the number rain gauges needed for the precise determination of areal-mean rainfall may be calculated by statistical estimation theory. The number gauges needed to measure the coefficient of variation over a 40 sq miles area, with varying degrees of error, was found to range from 264 (10% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in) to about 2 (100% error, mean precipitation = 0.1 in).

  9. Correlation between Very Short and Short-Term Blood Pressure Variability in Diabetic-Hypertensive and Healthy Subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casali, Karina R; Schaan, Beatriz D; Montano, Nicola; Massierer, Daniela; M F Neto, Flávio; Teló, Gabriela H; Ledur, Priscila S; Reinheimer, Marilia; Sbruzzi, Graciele; Gus, Miguel

    2018-02-01

    Blood pressure (BP) variability can be evaluated by 24-hour ambulatory BP monitoring (24h-ABPM), but its concordance with results from finger BP measurement (FBPM) has not been established yet. The aim of this study was to compare parameters of short-term (24h-ABPM) with very short-term BP variability (FBPM) in healthy (C) and diabetic-hypertensive (DH) subjects. Cross-sectional study with 51 DH subjects and 12 C subjects who underwent 24h-ABPM [extracting time-rate, standard deviation (SD), coefficient of variation (CV)] and short-term beat-to-beat recording at rest and after standing-up maneuvers [FBPM, extracting BP and heart rate (HR) variability parameters in the frequency domain, autoregressive spectral analysis]. Spearman correlation coefficient was used to correlate BP and HR variability parameters obtained from both FBPM and 24h-ABPM (divided into daytime, nighttime, and total). Statistical significance was set at p ABPM) and LF component of short-term variability (FBPM, total, R = 0.591, p = 0.043); standard deviation (24h-ABPM) with LF component BPV (FBPM, total, R = 0.608, p = 0.036), coefficient of variation (24h-ABPM) with total BPV (FBPM, daytime, -0.585, p = 0.046) and alpha index (FBPM, daytime, -0.592, p = 0.043), time rate (24h-ABPM) and delta LF/HF (FBPM, total, R = 0.636, p = 0.026; daytime R = 0,857, p ABPM (total, daytime) reflect BP and HR variability evaluated by FBPM in healthy individuals. This does not apply for DH subjects.

  10. Partial diel migration: A facultative migration underpinned by long-term inter-individual variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Philip M; Gutowsky, Lee F G; Martins, Eduardo G; Patterson, David A; Cooke, Steven J; Power, Michael

    2017-09-01

    The variations in migration that comprise partial diel migrations, putatively occur entirely as a consequence of behavioural flexibility. However, seasonal partial migrations are increasingly recognised to be mediated by a combination of reversible plasticity in response to environmental variation and individual variation due to genetic and environmental effects. Here, we test the hypothesis that while partial diel migration heterogeneity occurs primarily due to short-term within-individual flexibility in behaviour, long-term individual differences in migratory behaviour also underpin this migration variation. Specifically, we use a hierarchical behavioural reaction norm approach to partition within- and among-individual variation in depth use and diel plasticity in depth use, across short- and long-term time-scales, in a group of 47 burbot (Lota lota) tagged with depth-sensing acoustic telemetry transmitters. We found that within-individual variation at the among-dates-within-seasons and among-seasons scale, explained the dominant proportion of phenotypic variation. However, individuals also repeatedly differed in their expression of migration behaviour over the 2 year study duration. These results reveal that diel migration variation occurs primarily due to short-term within-individual flexibility in depth use and diel migration behaviour. However, repeatable individual differences also played a key role in mediating partial diel migration. These findings represent a significant advancement of our understanding of the mechanisms generating the important, yet poorly understood phenomena of partial diel migration. Moreover, given the pervasive occurrence of diel migrations across aquatic taxa, these findings indicate that individual differences have an important, yet previously unacknowledged role in structuring the temporal and vertical dynamics of aquatic ecosystems. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

  11. Short-Term Output Variations in Wind Farms--Implications for Ancillary Services in the United States: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadogan, J. [U.S. Department of Energy (US); Milligan, M. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (US); Wan, Y. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (US); Kirby, B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US)

    2001-09-21

    With the advent of competition in the electric power marketplace, this paper reviews changes that affect wind and other renewable energy technologies, and discusses the role of federal and state policies in the recent wind installations in the United States. In particular, it reviews the implications of ancillary service requirements on a wind farm and presents initial operating results of monitoring one Midwest wind farm. Under federal energy policy, each generator must purchase, or otherwise provide for, ancillary services, such as dispatch, regulation, operation reserve, voltage regulation, and scheduling required to move power to load. As a renewable technology that depends on the forces of nature, short-term output variations are inherently greater for a wind farm than for a gas-fired combined cycle or a supercritical coal-fired unit.

  12. Spatiotemporal Interpolation of Rainfall by Combining BME Theory and Satellite Rainfall Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tingting Shi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The accurate assessment of spatiotemporal rainfall variability is a crucial and challenging task in many hydrological applications, mainly due to the lack of a sufficient number of rain gauges. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of annual and monthly rainfall over Fujian province in China by combining the Bayesian maximum entropy (BME method and satellite rainfall estimates. Specifically, based on annual and monthly rainfall data at 20 meteorological stations from 2000 to 2012, (1 the BME method with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM estimates considered as soft data, (2 ordinary kriging (OK and (3 cokriging (CK were employed to model the spatiotemporal variations of rainfall in Fujian province. Subsequently, the performance of these methods was evaluated using cross-validation statistics. The results demonstrated that BME with TRMM as soft data (BME-TRMM performed better than the other two methods, generating rainfall maps that represented the local rainfall disparities in a more realistic manner. Of the three interpolation (mapping methods, the mean absolute error (MAE and root mean square error (RMSE values of the BME-TRMM method were the smallest. In conclusion, the BME-TRMM method improved spatiotemporal rainfall modeling and mapping by integrating hard data and soft information. Lastly, the study identified new opportunities concerning the application of TRMM rainfall estimates.

  13. Investigation of short and long term trends in chemical composition of Eastern Mediterranean aerosols

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    A collaborative study was started with the Middle East Technical University, Environmental Engineering Department in 2004 in order to determine the transport of air pollutants and their deposition rates to Eastern Mediterranean with the ultimate aim of filling the gaps in knowledge on the current status of Eastern Mediterranean air quality profile. Collection sufficient amount of representative samples, analyzes of the collected samples with high accuracy and precision and interpretation of generated data are crucial efforts. To attain this goal, EDXRF spectrometer, which is a rapid, reliable and sensitive analytical instrument, located at our center was employed in analysis of the collected samples after calibration with 'NIST 2783 Air Particles on Filter'. The effectiveness of the control strategies taken on the emissions was discussed by investigating the short and long term variations in the chemical composition of samples collected between 1993 and 2001 at Antalya station. In this context, generated data set was studied for short (daily) term, seasonal and long term variations. It has been found that short term variations in the concentrations of pollutants in short time scale are highly episodic. The concentration of measured pollutants was changed 10-20 folds in the subsequent two days. The most important factors affecting the chemical composition of pollutants in short time interval are meteorological factors such as precipitation and variations observed at the emission strength of pollutants. The declined in Pb concentrations at the Antalya station was attributed to observed decrease in Pb emissions in Europe after the introduction of leaded gasoline. Highest summer averages were reported for anthropogenic pollutants in summer months. Aegean Sea (Izmir-Aliaga) studies of the project will be completed this year

  14. Short term variation of Cyg X-1 in the hard x-ray region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, Kosei

    1978-01-01

    Cyg X-1 is a peculiar celestial body considered to be a close binary system of a black hole and a blue super-giant star. It is presently known that the time fluctuation of Cyg X-1 is considerably complex, ranging from seconds to days or months. Of these variation, attention has been paid to the short time variation in relation to the black hole theory. Observations of fluctuations in the order of second have been limited to soft X-ray (20 keV or more) so far, because great technical difficulties are involved due to the low intensity of hard X-ray. The present investigation is based on the fluctuations in the order of second in hard X-ray, and was conducted by employing an unprecedented large area X-ray telescope. The text describes on the brief history of the short time fluctuation, explains the experimental plan, X-ray detecting system, flight of a balloon and the analyses and discussions of fluctuation factor by variation function method, and gives the analysis data and conclusion. The observations resulted in the fact that the fluctuations in the order of second were small at 20 to 30 keV, but become large when energy is higher or lower than this value. The most natural explanation available for this result may be that it is essentially spectrum fluctuation, being inverse correlation in higher and lower energies. Physical meaning of such spectrum fluctuation is considered in connection with precipitating disk model around a black hole. (Wakatsuki, Y.)

  15. Short term variation of Cyg X-1 in the hard x-ray region

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doi, Kosei [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Inst. of Space and Aeronautical Science

    1978-08-01

    Cyg X-1 is a peculiar celestial body considered to be a close binary system of a black hole and a blue super-giant star. It is presently known that the time fluctuation of Cyg X-1 is considerably complex, ranging from seconds to days or months. Of these variation, attention has been paid to the short time variation in relation to the black hole theory. Observations of fluctuations in the order of second have been limited to soft X-ray (20 keV or more) so far, because great technical difficulties are involved due to the low intensity of hard X-ray. The present investigation is based on the fluctuations in the order of second in hard X-ray, and was conducted by employing an unprecedented large area X-ray telescope. The text describes on the brief history of the short time fluctuation, explains the experimental plan, X-ray detecting system, flight of a balloon and the analyses and discussions of fluctuation factor by variation function method, and gives the analysis data and conclusion. The observations resulted in the fact that the fluctuations in the order of second were small at 20 to 30 keV, but become large when energy is higher or lower than this value. The most natural explanation available for this result may be that it is essentially spectrum fluctuation, being inverse correlation in higher and lower energies. Physical meaning of such spectrum fluctuation is considered in connection with precipitating disk model around a black hole.

  16. VAN method of short-term earthquake prediction shows promise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyeda, Seiya

    Although optimism prevailed in the 1970s, the present consensus on earthquake prediction appears to be quite pessimistic. However, short-term prediction based on geoelectric potential monitoring has stood the test of time in Greece for more than a decade [VarotsosandKulhanek, 1993] Lighthill, 1996]. The method used is called the VAN method.The geoelectric potential changes constantly due to causes such as magnetotelluric effects, lightning, rainfall, leakage from manmade sources, and electrochemical instabilities of electrodes. All of this noise must be eliminated before preseismic signals are identified, if they exist at all. The VAN group apparently accomplished this task for the first time. They installed multiple short (100-200m) dipoles with different lengths in both north-south and east-west directions and long (1-10 km) dipoles in appropriate orientations at their stations (one of their mega-stations, Ioannina, for example, now has 137 dipoles in operation) and found that practically all of the noise could be eliminated by applying a set of criteria to the data.

  17. Examining spatial-temporal variability and prediction of rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muhammed, B. U.; Kaduk, J.; Balzter, H.

    2012-12-01

    In the last 50 years rainfall in North-eastern Nigeria under the influence of the West African Monsoon (WAM) has been characterised by large annual variations with severe droughts recorded in 1967-1973, and 1983-1987. This variability in rainfall has a large impact on the regions agricultural output, economy and security where the majority of the people depend on subsistence agriculture. In the 1990s there was a sign of recovery with higher annual rainfall totals compared to the 1961-1990 period but annual totals were slightly above the long term mean for the century. In this study we examine how significant this recovery is by analysing medium-term (1980-2006) rainfall of the region using the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) precipitation ½ degree, 6 hourly reanalysis data set. Percentage coefficient of variation increases northwards for annual rainfall (10%-35%) and the number of rainy days (10%-50%). The standardized precipitation index (SPI) of the area shows 7 years during the period as very wet (1996, 1999, 2003 and 2004) with SPI≥1.5 and moderately wet (1993, 1998, and 2006) with values of 1.0≥SPI≤1.49. Annual rainfall indicates a recovery from the 1990s and onwards but significant increases (in the amount of rainfall and number of days recorded with rainfall) is only during the peak of the monsoon season in the months of August and September (pARIMA) model. The model is further evaluated using 24 months rainfall data yielding r=0.79 (regression slope=0.8; pARIMA model and the rainfall data used for this study indicates that the model can be satisfactorily used in forecasting rainfall in the in the sub-humid part of North-eastern Nigeria over a 24 months period.

  18. Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

    Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

  19. Climate change and predicting soil loss from rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnell, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Conceptually, rainfall has a certain capacity to cause soil loss from an eroding area while soil surfaces have a certain resistance to being eroded by rainfall. The terms "rainfall erosivity' and "soil erodibility" are frequently used to encapsulate the concept and in the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), the most widely used soil loss prediction equation in the world, average annual values of the R "erosivity" factor and the K "erodibility" factor provide a basis for accounting for variation in rainfall erosion associated with geographic variations of climate and soils. In many applications of RUSLE, R and K are considered to be independent but in reality they are not. In RUSLE2, provision has been made to take account of the fact that K values determined using soil physical factors have to be adjusted for variations in climate because runoff is not directly included as a factor in determining R. Also, the USLE event erosivity index EI30 is better related to accounting for event sediment concentration than event soil loss. While the USLE-M, a modification of the USLE which includes runoff as a factor in determining the event erosivity index provides better estimates of event soil loss when event runoff is known, runoff prediction provides a challenge to modelling event soil loss as climate changes

  20. Feasibility Study on the Satellite Rainfall Data for Prediction of Sediment- Related Disaster by the Japanese Prediction Methodology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimizu, Y.; Ishizuka, T.; Osanai, N.; Okazumi, T.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, the sediment-related disaster prediction method which based ground gauged rainfall-data, currently practiced in Japan was coupled with satellite rainfall data and applied to domestic large-scale sediment-related disasters. The study confirmed the feasibility of this integrated method. In Asia, large-scale sediment-related disasters which can sweep away an entire settlement occur frequently. Leyte Island suffered from a huge landslide in 2004, and Typhoon Molakot in 2009 caused huge landslides in Taiwan. In the event of these sediment-related disasters, immediate responses by central and local governments are crucial in crisis management. In general, there are not enough rainfall gauge stations in developing countries. Therefore national and local governments have little information to determine the risk level of water induced disasters in their service areas. In the Japanese methodology, a criterion is set by combining two indices: the short-term rainfall index and long-term rainfall index. The short-term rainfall index is defined as the 60-minute total rainfall; the long-term rainfall index as the soil-water index, which is an estimation of the retention status of fallen rainfall in soil. In July 2009, a high-density sediment related disaster, or a debris flow, occurred in Hofu City of Yamaguchi Prefecture, in the western region of Japan. This event was calculated by the Japanese standard methodology, and then analyzed for its feasibility. Hourly satellite based rainfall has underestimates compared with ground based rainfall data. Long-term index correlates with each other. Therefore, this study confirmed that it is possible to deliver information on the risk level of sediment-related disasters such as shallow landslides and debris flows. The prediction method tested in this study is expected to assist for timely emergency responses to rainfall-induced natural disasters in sparsely gauged areas. As the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Plan

  1. Short-Term Market Risks Implied by Weekly Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor

    a direct way to study volatility and jump risks. Unlike longer-dated options, they are largely insensitive to the risk of intertemporal shifts in the economic environment. Adopting a novel semi-nonparametric approach, we uncover variation in the negative jump tail risk which is not spanned by market......We study short-term market risks implied by weekly S&P 500 index options. The introduction of weekly options has dramatically shifted the maturity profile of traded options over the last five years, with a substantial proportion now having expiry within one week. Such short-dated options provide......" by the level of market volatility and elude standard asset pricing models....

  2. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2017-01-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term...

  3. Entropy of stable seasonal rainfall distribution in Kelantan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azman, Muhammad Az-zuhri; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Satari, Siti Zanariah; Radi, Noor Fadhilah Ahmad

    2017-05-01

    Investigating the rainfall variability is vital for any planning and management in many fields related to water resources. Climate change can gives an impact of water availability and may aggravate water scarcity in the future. Two statistics measurements which have been used by many researchers to measure the rainfall variability are variance and coefficient of variation. However, these two measurements are insufficient since rainfall distribution in Malaysia especially in the East Coast of Peninsular Malaysia is not symmetric instead it is positively skewed. In this study, the entropy concept is used as a tool to measure the seasonal rainfall variability in Kelantan and ten rainfall stations were selected. In previous studies, entropy of stable rainfall (ESR) and apportionment entropy (AE) were used to describe the rainfall amount variability during years for Australian rainfall data. In this study, the entropy of stable seasonal rainfall (ESSR) is suggested to model rainfall amount variability during northeast monsoon (NEM) and southwest monsoon (SWM) seasons in Kelantan. The ESSR is defined to measure the long-term average seasonal rainfall amount variability within a given year (1960-2012). On the other hand, the AE measures the rainfall amounts variability across the months. The results of ESSR and AE values show that stations in east coastline are more variable as compared to other stations inland for Kelantan rainfall. The contour maps of ESSR for Kelantan rainfall stations are also presented.

  4. Long-term associative learning predicts verbal short-term memory performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2018-02-01

    Studies using tests such as digit span and nonword repetition have implicated short-term memory across a range of developmental domains. Such tests ostensibly assess specialized processes for the short-term manipulation and maintenance of information that are often argued to enable long-term learning. However, there is considerable evidence for an influence of long-term linguistic learning on performance in short-term memory tasks that brings into question the role of a specialized short-term memory system separate from long-term knowledge. Using natural language corpora, we show experimentally and computationally that performance on three widely used measures of short-term memory (digit span, nonword repetition, and sentence recall) can be predicted from simple associative learning operating on the linguistic environment to which a typical child may have been exposed. The findings support the broad view that short-term verbal memory performance reflects the application of long-term language knowledge to the experimental setting.

  5. Daily and seasonal variation of short-lived radon decay product concentrations in ground-level air at Munich-Neuherberg - a long-term study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.

    2001-09-01

    Daily and seasonal variation of the equilibrium equivalent radon concentration (EEC Rn-222 ) and of the concentration of the short-lived radon decay product 214 Pb in ground-level air was investigated at Munich-Neuherberg from 1982 to 2000, and from 1989 to 2000, respectively. For this, the EEC was measured continuously with an alpha/beta aerosol monitor at 2.5 m above ground, and 214 Pb was determined by online gamma spectrometry at about 12 m above ground. The resulting time series were analysed statistically. For the respective periods, the measurements yielded a long-term average concentration of 7.8 Bq m -3 (geometric mean: 6.1 Bq m -3 ) for the EEC, and 6.0 Bq m -3 (geom. mean: 5.0 Bq m -3 ) for 214 Pb. In these periods, daily averages ranged from 0.6 to 49 Bq m -3 (EEC), and from 0.6 to 43 Bq m -3 ( 214 Pb). Monthly mean concentrations varied between 3.0 Bq m -3 in March 1988 and 20 Bq m -3 in October 1985 (EEC), and from 3.4 Bq m -3 in April 1992 to 11 Bq m -3 in October 1995 ( 214 Pb), respectively. The annual average concentrations were from 5.9 Bq m -3 in 1999 to 10.6 Bq m -3 in 1985 (EEC), and from 5.3 Bq m -3 in 1999 to 6.8 Bq m -3 in 1991 ( 214 Pb). From the long-term average equilibrium equivalent radon concentration (EEC), an average annual effective dose of 0.13 mSv due to the short-lived radon progeny outdoors was estimated. The time series showed distinct daily and seasonal variations. The variations from day to day are mainly caused by the actual weather conditions (wind, rain, etc.), i.e. the short-term turbulent conditions. The seasonal pattern is characterised by an autumn to winter maximum and an early summer minimum, and reflects the prevailing turbulent conditions at the respective seasons. As known, at Munich-Neuherberg during autumn and winter months (October/November to February) inversion weather conditions frequently occur, while the other months are characterised by more turbulent conditions. (orig.)

  6. Prediction of Rainfall-Induced Landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadim, F.; Sandersen, F.

    2009-12-01

    -mum intensity of rain within a short period of time (1-3 hours) during a storm is most critical for triggering of debris flows. Therefore empirical methods developed for prediction of initiation of debris flows include both long-duration and short-duration rain-fall. More recent research has focused on the spatial distribution of unstable areas and on better spatial resolution of the occurrence of landslide-triggering precipitation events. Spatial distribution can be assessed by analyzing the stability conditions for shallow landslides if reasonable estimates of strength parameters are available. In general, two different approaches may be adopted for the assessment of threshold values for rainfall-induced landslides: empirical methods that are based on past observations and statistical analyses, and numerical analyses that are based on geo-mechanical modelling. The former approach together with very short-term weather forecasting (now-casting) are commonly used in the design of early warning systems for debris flows.

  7. Short-term regulation of hydro powerplants. Studies on the environmental effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinisalmi, T.; Riihimaeki, J.; Vehanen, T.; Yrjaenae, T.

    1997-01-01

    The publication is a final report on a project studying effects of short-term regulation of hydro power plants. The project consists of two parts: (1) examining and developing methods for evaluation, (2) applying methods in a case study at the Oulujoki River. The economic value of short-term regulation was studied with a model consisting of an optimization model and a river simulation model. Constraints on water level or discharge variations could be given to the power plants and their economical influence could be studied. Effects on shoreline recreation use due to water level fluctuation were studied with a model where various effects are made commensurable and expressed in monetary terms. A literature survey and field experiments were used to study the methods for assessing effects of short-term regulation on river habitats. The state and development needs of fish stocks and fisheries in large regulated rivers were studied and an environmental classification was made. Remedial measures for the short-term regulated rivers were studied with a literature survey and enquiries. A comprehensive picture of the various effects of short-term regulation was gained in the case study in Oulujoki River (110 km long, 7 power plants). Harmful effects can be reduced with the given recommendations of remedial measures on environment and the usage of the hydro power plants. (orig.) 52 refs

  8. Short-term regulation of hydro powerplants. Studies on the environmental effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinisalmi, T. [ed.; Forsius, J.; Muotka, J.; Soimakallio, H. [Imatran Voima Oy, Vantaa (Finland); Riihimaeki, J. [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Vehanen, T. [Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Inst. (Finland); Yrjaenae, T. [North Ostrobothnia Regional Environmental Centre, Oulu (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The publication is a final report on a project studying effects of short-term regulation of hydro power plants. The project consists of two parts: (1) examining and developing methods for evaluation, (2) applying methods in a case study at the Oulujoki River. The economic value of short-term regulation was studied with a model consisting of an optimization model and a river simulation model. Constraints on water level or discharge variations could be given to the power plants and their economical influence could be studied. Effects on shoreline recreation use due to water level fluctuation were studied with a model where various effects are made commensurable and expressed in monetary terms. A literature survey and field experiments were used to study the methods for assessing effects of short-term regulation on river habitats. The state and development needs of fish stocks and fisheries in large regulated rivers were studied and an environmental classification was made. Remedial measures for the short-term regulated rivers were studied with a literature survey and enquiries. A comprehensive picture of the various effects of short-term regulation was gained in the case study in Oulujoki River (110 km long, 7 power plants). Harmful effects can be reduced with the given recommendations of remedial measures on environment and the usage of the hydro power plants. (orig.) 52 refs.

  9. Verbal Short-Term Memory Performance in Pupils with Down Syndrome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdelhameed, Hala; Porter, Jill

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that verbal short-term memory span is shorter in individuals with Down syndrome than in typically developing individuals of equivalent mental age, but little attention has been given to variations within or across groups. Differences in the environment and in particular educational experiences may play a part in the relative…

  10. Effects of sea surface temperature, cloud radiative and microphysical processes, and diurnal variations on rainfall in equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Zhe; Li Xiao-Fan; Zhou Yu-Shu; Gao Shou-Ting

    2012-01-01

    The effects of sea surface temperature (SST), cloud radiative and microphysical processes, and diurnal variations on rainfall statistics are documented with grid data from the two-dimensional equilibrium cloud-resolving model simulations. For a rain rate of higher than 3 mm·h −1 , water vapor convergence prevails. The rainfall amount decreases with the decrease of SST from 29 °C to 27 °C, the inclusion of diurnal variation of SST, or the exclusion of microphysical effects of ice clouds and radiative effects of water clouds, which are primarily associated with the decreases in water vapor convergence. However, the amount of rainfall increases with the increase of SST from 29 °C to 31 °C, the exclusion of diurnal variation of solar zenith angle, and the exclusion of the radiative effects of ice clouds, which are primarily related to increases in water vapor convergence. For a rain rate of less than 3 mm·h −1 , water vapor divergence prevails. Unlike rainfall statistics for rain rates of higher than 3 mm·h −1 , the decrease of SST from 29 °C to 27 °C and the exclusion of radiative effects of water clouds in the presence of radiative effects of ice clouds increase the rainfall amount, which corresponds to the suppression in water vapor divergence. The exclusion of microphysical effects of ice clouds decreases the amount of rainfall, which corresponds to the enhancement in water vapor divergence. The amount of rainfall is less sensitive to the increase of SST from 29 °C to 31 °C and to the radiative effects of water clouds in the absence of the radiative effects of ice clouds. (electromagnetism, optics, acoustics, heat transfer, classical mechanics, and fluid dynamics)

  11. Rainfall: Features and Variations over Saudi Arabia, A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hosny Hasanean

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The Saudi Arabia (SA climate varies greatly, depending on the geography and the season. According to K ppen and Geiger, the climates of SA is “desert climate”. The analysis of the seasonal rainfall detects that spring and winter seasons have the highestrainfall incidence, respectively. Through the summer,small quantities of precipitation are observed, while autumn received more precipitation more than summer season considering the total annual rainfall. In all seasons, the SW area receives rainfall, with a maximum in spring, whereas in the summer season, the NE and NW areas receive very little quantities of precipitation. The Rub Al-Khali (the SE region is almost totally dry. The maximum amount of annual rainfall does not always happen at the highest elevation. Therefore, the elevation is not the only factor in rainfall distribution.A great inter-annual change in the rainfall over the SA for the period (1978–2009 is observed. In addition, in the same period, a linear decreasing trend is found in the observed rainfall, whilst in the recent past (1994–2009 a statistically significant negative trend is observed. In the Southern part of the Arabian Peninsula (AP and along the coast of the Red Sea, it is interesting to note that rainfall increased, whilst it decreased over most areas of SA during the 2000–2009 decade, compared to 1980–1989.Statistical and numerical models are used to predict rainfall over Saudi Arabia (SA. The statistical models based on stochastic models of ARIMA and numerical models based on Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies of Hadley Centre (PRECIS. Climate and its qualitative character and quantified range of possible future changes are investigated. The annual total rainfall decreases in most regions of the SA and only increases in the south. The summertime precipitation will be the highest between other seasons over the southern, the southwestern provinces and Asir mountains, while the wintertime

  12. Numerical simulation of scouring-deposition variations caused by rainfall-induced landslides in the upstream of Zengwun River, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ming-Hsi; Liao, Yi-Wen; Tsai, Kuang-Jung

    2017-04-01

    In recent years, the increasing sediment disasters of severe rainfall-induced landslides on human lives and lifeline facilities worldwide have advanced the necessity to find out both economically acceptable and useful techniques to predict the occurrence and destructive power of the disasters. In August 2009, Typhoon Morakot brought a large amount of rainfall with both high intensity and long duration to a vast area of Taiwan. Unfortunately, this resulted in a catastrophic landslide in watershed of Zengwun-River reservoir, southern Taiwan. Meanwhile, large amounts of landslides were formed in the upstream of Zengwun River. The major scope of this study is to apply numerical model to simulate the scouring-deposition variations caused by rainfall-induced landslides that occurred in the upstream of Zengwun River during Typhoon Morakot. This study proposed the relation diagrams of the intermediate diameter (d50), recurrence interval (T) and scouring-deposition depth (D), and applied the diagrams to understand the impacts of the scouring-deposition variations on the structures for water and soil conservation and their measurements. Based on the simulation of scouring-deposition variation at the Da-Bu dam and Da-Bang dam, this study also discussed the scouring-deposition variations of different sections under different scenarios (including flow rate, intermediate diameters and structures). In summary, the result suggested that the diagrams of the intermediate diameter, recurrence interval and scouring-deposition depth could be used as the reference for designing the check dams, ground sills and lateral constructions.

  13. Deterministic and probabilistic interval prediction for short-term wind power generation based on variational mode decomposition and machine learning methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yachao; Liu, Kaipei; Qin, Liang; An, Xueli

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Variational mode decomposition is adopted to process original wind power series. • A novel combined model based on machine learning methods is established. • An improved differential evolution algorithm is proposed for weight adjustment. • Probabilistic interval prediction is performed by quantile regression averaging. - Abstract: Due to the increasingly significant energy crisis nowadays, the exploitation and utilization of new clean energy gains more and more attention. As an important category of renewable energy, wind power generation has become the most rapidly growing renewable energy in China. However, the intermittency and volatility of wind power has restricted the large-scale integration of wind turbines into power systems. High-precision wind power forecasting is an effective measure to alleviate the negative influence of wind power generation on the power systems. In this paper, a novel combined model is proposed to improve the prediction performance for the short-term wind power forecasting. Variational mode decomposition is firstly adopted to handle the instability of the raw wind power series, and the subseries can be reconstructed by measuring sample entropy of the decomposed modes. Then the base models can be established for each subseries respectively. On this basis, the combined model is developed based on the optimal virtual prediction scheme, the weight matrix of which is dynamically adjusted by a self-adaptive multi-strategy differential evolution algorithm. Besides, a probabilistic interval prediction model based on quantile regression averaging and variational mode decomposition-based hybrid models is presented to quantify the potential risks of the wind power series. The simulation results indicate that: (1) the normalized mean absolute errors of the proposed combined model from one-step to three-step forecasting are 4.34%, 6.49% and 7.76%, respectively, which are much lower than those of the base models and the hybrid

  14. Short-Term Effects of Drying-Rewetting and Long-Term Effects of Nutrient Loading on Periphyton N:P Stoichiometry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andres D. Sola

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen (N and phosphorus (P concentrations and N:P ratios critically influence periphyton productivity and nutrient cycling in aquatic ecosystems. In coastal wetlands, variations in hydrology and water source (fresh or marine influence nutrient availability, but short-term effects of drying and rewetting and long-term effects of nutrient exposure on periphyton nutrient retention are uncertain. An outdoor microcosm experiment simulated short-term exposure to variation in drying-rewetting frequency on periphyton mat nutrient retention. A 13-year dataset from freshwater marshes of the Florida Everglades was examined for the effect of long-term proximity to different N and P sources on mat-forming periphyton nutrient standing stocks and stoichiometry. Field sites were selected from one drainage with shorter hydroperiod and higher connectivity to freshwater anthropogenic nutrient supplies (Taylor Slough/Panhandle, TS/Ph and another drainage with longer hydroperiod and higher connectivity to marine nutrient supplies (Shark River Slough, SRS. Total P, but not total N, increased in periphyton mats exposed to both low and high drying-rewetting frequency with respect to the control mats in our experimental microcosm. In SRS, N:P ratios slightly decreased downstream due to marine nutrient supplies, while TS/Ph increased. Mats exposed to short-term drying-rewetting had higher nutrient retention, similar to nutrient standing stocks from long-term field data. Periphyton mat microbial communities may undergo community shifts upon drying-rewetting and chronic exposure to nutrient loads. Additional work on microbial species composition may further explain how periphyton communities interact with drying-rewetting dynamics to influence nutrient cycling and retention in wetlands.

  15. Tree Carbohydrate Dynamics Across a Rainfall Gradient in Panama During the 2016 ENSO

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, L. T.; Xu, C.; Behar, H.; McDowell, N.

    2017-12-01

    Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) provide a measure of the carbon supply available to support respiration, growth, and defense. Support for a role of carbon starvation - or depletion of NSC stores - in drought induced tree mortality is varied without consensus for the tropics. The 2016 ENSO drought provided a unique opportunity to capture drought impacts on tropical forest carbohydrate dynamics. To quantify these impacts, we collected monthly NSC samples across a rainfall gradient in Panama for the duration of the ENSO. We observed high variability in foliar NSC among species within sites. Foliage contained very little starch, indicating that total NSC dynamics are driven by soluble sugars. Foliar NSC depletion did not progress with drought duration as predicted, but showed little variation over course of the ENSO. Foliar NSC did, however, increase with rainfall, suggesting NSC depletion may occur with longer-term drought. These results suggest that, while short-term droughts like the 2016 ENSO may not have a significant impact on carbon dynamics, we may observe greater impacts as drought progresses over longer timescales. These results will be used to evaluate whether the current implementation of carbon starvation in climate models are capturing observed trends in tropical forest carbon allocation and mortality, and to tune model parameters for improved predictive capability.

  16. Statistical downscaling of precipitation using long short-term memory recurrent neural networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Misra, Saptarshi; Sarkar, Sudeshna; Mitra, Pabitra

    2017-11-01

    Hydrological impacts of global climate change on regional scale are generally assessed by downscaling large-scale climatic variables, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), to regional, small-scale hydrometeorological variables like precipitation, temperature, etc. In this study, we propose a new statistical downscaling model based on Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory which captures the spatio-temporal dependencies in local rainfall. The previous studies have used several other methods such as linear regression, quantile regression, kernel regression, beta regression, and artificial neural networks. Deep neural networks and recurrent neural networks have been shown to be highly promising in modeling complex and highly non-linear relationships between input and output variables in different domains and hence we investigated their performance in the task of statistical downscaling. We have tested this model on two datasets—one on precipitation in Mahanadi basin in India and the second on precipitation in Campbell River basin in Canada. Our autoencoder coupled long short-term memory recurrent neural network model performs the best compared to other existing methods on both the datasets with respect to temporal cross-correlation, mean squared error, and capturing the extremes.

  17. A simple analytical infiltration model for short-duration rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Kaiwen; Yang, Xiaohua; Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming

    2017-12-01

    Many infiltration models have been proposed to simulate infiltration process. Different initial soil conditions and non-uniform initial water content can lead to infiltration simulation errors, especially for short-duration rainfall (SHR). Few infiltration models are specifically derived to eliminate the errors caused by the complex initial soil conditions. We present a simple analytical infiltration model for SHR infiltration simulation, i.e., Short-duration Infiltration Process model (SHIP model). The infiltration simulated by 5 models (i.e., SHIP (high) model, SHIP (middle) model, SHIP (low) model, Philip model and Parlange model) were compared based on numerical experiments and soil column experiments. In numerical experiments, SHIP (middle) and Parlange models had robust solutions for SHR infiltration simulation of 12 typical soils under different initial soil conditions. The absolute values of percent bias were less than 12% and the values of Nash and Sutcliffe efficiency were greater than 0.83. Additionally, in soil column experiments, infiltration rate fluctuated in a range because of non-uniform initial water content. SHIP (high) and SHIP (low) models can simulate an infiltration range, which successfully covered the fluctuation range of the observed infiltration rate. According to the robustness of solutions and the coverage of fluctuation range of infiltration rate, SHIP model can be integrated into hydrologic models to simulate SHR infiltration process and benefit the flood forecast.

  18. Short-term variations in mesozooplankton, ichthyoplankton, and nutrients associated with semi-diurnal tides in a patagonian Gulf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro, L. R.; Cáceres, M. A.; Silva, N.; Muñoz, M. I.; León, R.; Landaeta, M. F.; Soto-Mendoza, S.

    2011-03-01

    The relationships between the distribution of different zooplankton and ichthyoplankton stages and physical and chemical variables were studied using samples and data (CTD profiles, ADCP and current meter measurements, nutrients, mesozooplankton, ichthyoplankton) obtained from different strata during two 24-h cycles at two oceanographic stations in a Chilean Patagonian gulf during the CIMAR 10-Fiordos cruise (November, 2004). A station located at the Chacao Channel was dominated by tidal mixing and small increments in surface stratification during high tides, leading to decreased nutrient availability. This agreed with short periods of increased phytoplankton abundance during slack waters at the end of flood currents. Increases in larval density for all zooplankton and ichthyoplankton taxa corresponded to the flooding phases of the tidal cycle. When the larval density data were fit to a sinusoidal model, the regression coefficients were high, suggesting that tides are important features that modulate short-term variations in plankton abundance. All larvae did not vary synchronously with the tidal phase; rather, time lags were observed among species. The abundances of older individuals of the copepodite Rhincalanus nasutus and all zoea stages of the squat lobster Munida gregaria increased during night flood tides, whereas younger stages increased during daytime flood tides. At a station located at the Queullin Pass, which was dominated by vertical stratification patterns, the variations in peak larval density were better fitted to the semi-diurnal sea level fluctuations. Other evidence indicated internal tides below the pycnocline, which could promote larval transport in deeper layers. In the overall picture that emerges from this study, planktonic organisms from different habitats and phylogenetic origins seem to respond to the local tidal regimes. In some cases, this response might be beneficial, transporting these individuals inshore to areas that are rich in

  19. Stochastic modelling of daily rainfall sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buishand, T.A.

    1977-01-01

    Rainfall series of different climatic regions were analysed with the aim of generating daily rainfall sequences. A survey of the data is given in I, 1. When analysing daily rainfall sequences one must be aware of the following points:
    a. Seasonality. Because of seasonal variation

  20. TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF EXTREME RAINFALL ON THE SLOPE AREA OF MT. MERAPI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dhian Dharma Prayuda

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall has temporal and spatial characteristics with certain pattern which are affected by topographic variations and climatology of an area. The intensity of extreme rainfall is one of important characteristics related to the trigger factors for debris flow. This research will discuss the result of analysis on short duration rainfall data in the south and west slope of Mt. Merapi. Measured hourly rainfall data in 14 rainfall stations for the last 27 years were used as analysis input. The rainfall intensity-duration-frequency relationship (IDF was derived using empirical formula of Sherman, Kimijima, Haspers, and Mononobe method. The analysis on the characteristics of extreme rainfall intensity was performed by conducting spatial interpolation using Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW method. Result of analysis shows that IDF of rainfall in the research area fits to Sherman’s formula. Besides, the spatial distribution pattern of maximum rainfall intensity was assessed on the basis of area rainfall. Furthermore, the difference on the result of spatial map for one hour extreme rainfall based on isolated event and non-isolated event method can be evaluated. The result of this preliminary research is expected to be inputs in the establishment of debris flow early warning in Mt. Merapi slope area.

  1. Traffic Flow Prediction with Rainfall Impact Using a Deep Learning Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhan Jia

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate traffic flow prediction is increasingly essential for successful traffic modeling, operation, and management. Traditional data driven traffic flow prediction approaches have largely assumed restrictive (shallow model architectures and do not leverage the large amount of environmental data available. Inspired by deep learning methods with more complex model architectures and effective data mining capabilities, this paper introduces the deep belief network (DBN and long short-term memory (LSTM to predict urban traffic flow considering the impact of rainfall. The rainfall-integrated DBN and LSTM can learn the features of traffic flow under various rainfall scenarios. Experimental results indicate that, with the consideration of additional rainfall factor, the deep learning predictors have better accuracy than existing predictors and also yield improvements over the original deep learning models without rainfall input. Furthermore, the LSTM can outperform the DBN to capture the time series characteristics of traffic flow data.

  2. The relationship of lightning activity and short-duation rainfall events during warm seasons over the Beijing metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, F.; Cui, X.; Zhang, D. L.; Lin, Q.

    2017-12-01

    The relationship between lightning activity and rainfall associated with 2925 short-duration rainfall (SDR) events over the Beijing metropolitan region (BMR) is examined during the warm seasons of 2006-2007, using the cloud-to-ground (CG) and intracloud (IC) lightning data from Surveillance et Alerte Foudre par Interférometrie Radioélectrique (SAFIR)-3000 and 5-min rainfall data from automatic weather stations (AWSs). To facilitate the analysis of the rainfall-lightning correlations, the SDR events are categorized into six different intensity grades according to their hourly rainfall rates (HRRs), and an optimal radius of 10 km from individual AWSs for counting their associated lightning flashes is used. Results show that the lightning-rainfall correlations vary significantly with different intensity grades. Weak correlations (R 0.4) are found in the weak SDR events, and 40-50% of the events are no-flash ones. And moderate correlation (R 0.6) are found in the moderate SDR events, and > 10-20% of the events are no-flash ones. In contrast, high correlations (R 0.7) are obtained in the SDHR events, and < 10% of the events are no-flash ones. The results indicate that lightning activity is observed more frequently and correlated more robust with the rainfall in the SDHR events. Significant time lagged correlations between lightning and rainfall are also found. About 80% of the SDR events could reach their highest correlation coefficients when the associated lightning flashes shift at time lags of < 25 min before and after rainfall begins. The percentages of SDR events with CG or total lightning activity preceding, lagging or coinciding with rainfall shows that (i) in about 55% of the SDR events lightning flashes preceded rainfall; (ii) the SDR events with lightning flashes lagging behind rainfall accounted for about 30%; and (iii) the SDR events without any time shifts accounted for the remaining 15%. Better lightning-rainfall correlations can be attained when time

  3. [Contract focused short-term group therapy--results of an evaluation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirschberg, Rainer; Meyer, Birgit

    2010-01-01

    A short description outlines the development of commission focused short-term therapy (AFoG) for children and adolescents. Subsequently the generic principles of psychotherapy are applied to AFoG in order to underline the basic assumptions of this variation of systemic group therapy. Behavioural changes arising in different contexts (school, family, group therapy) show the need for an appropriate flexibility of group therapy techniques. The evaluation was accomplished using the Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL 4-18) at the beginning and 3 month after the end of the group therapy. The results show positive effects which finally are discussed critically.

  4. Short-Term Forecasting of Electric Energy Generation for a Photovoltaic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dinh V.T.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available This article presents a short-term forecast of electric energy output of a photovoltaic (PV system towards Tomsk city, Russia climate variations (module temperature and solar irradiance. The system is located at Institute of Non-destructive Testing, Tomsk Polytechnic University. The obtained results show good agreement between actual data and prediction values.

  5. Impact of short-term climate variation and hydrology change on thermal structure and water quality of a canyon-shaped, stratified reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Wei-Xing; Huang, Ting-Lin; Li, Xuan; Zhang, Hai-Han; Ju, Tuo

    2015-12-01

    Climate variation can have obvious effects on hydrologic conditions, which in turn can have direct consequences for the thermal regime and quality of water for human use. In this research, weekly surveys were conducted from 2011 to 2013 to investigate how changes of climate and hydrology affect the thermal regime and water quality at the Heihe Reservoir. Our results show that the hydrology change during the flooding season can both increase the oxygen concentration and accelerate the consumption of dissolved oxygen. Continuous heavy rainfall events occurred in September 2011 caused the mixing of the entire reservoir, which led to an increase in dissolved oxygen at the bottom until the next year. Significant turbid density flow was observed following the extreme rainfall events in 2012 which leading to a rapid increase in turbidity at the bottom (up to 3000 NTU). Though the dissolved oxygen at the bottom increased from 0 to 9.02 mg/L after the rainfall event, it became anoxic within 20 days due to the increase of water oxygen demand caused by the suspended matter brought by the storm runoff. The release of compounds from the sediments was more serious during the anaerobic period after the rainfall events and the concentration of total iron, total phosphorus, and total manganese at the bottom reached 1.778, 0.102, and 0.125 mg/L. The improved water-lifting aerators kept on running after the storm runoff occurred in 2013 to avoid the deterioration of water quality during anaerobic conditions and ensured the good water quality during the mixing period. Our results suggest preventive and remediation actions that are necessary to improve water quality and status.

  6. What are the differences between long-term, short-term, and working memory?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowan, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    In the recent literature there has been considerable confusion about the three types of memory: long-term, short-term, and working memory. This chapter strives to reduce that confusion and makes up-to-date assessments of these types of memory. Long- and short-term memory could differ in two fundamental ways, with only short-term memory demonstrating (1) temporal decay and (2) chunk capacity limits. Both properties of short-term memory are still controversial but the current literature is rather encouraging regarding the existence of both decay and capacity limits. Working memory has been conceived and defined in three different, slightly discrepant ways: as short-term memory applied to cognitive tasks, as a multi-component system that holds and manipulates information in short-term memory, and as the use of attention to manage short-term memory. Regardless of the definition, there are some measures of memory in the short term that seem routine and do not correlate well with cognitive aptitudes and other measures (those usually identified with the term "working memory") that seem more attention demanding and do correlate well with these aptitudes. The evidence is evaluated and placed within a theoretical framework depicted in Fig. 1.

  7. The Role of Indian Ocean SST Anomalies in Modulating Regional Rainfall Variability and Long-term Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ummenhofer, C. C.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

    2008-12-01

    In a series of atmospheric general circulation model simulations, the potential impact of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in modulating low- to mid-latitude precipitation around the Indian Ocean rim countries is explored. The relative importance of various characteristic tropical and subtropical Indian Ocean SST poles, both individually and in combination, to regional precipitation changes is quantified. A mechanism for the rainfall modulation is proposed, by which the SST anomalies induce changes in the thermal properties of the atmosphere, resulting in a reorganization of the large-scale atmospheric circulation across the Indian Ocean basin. Across western and southern regions of Australia, rainfall anomalies are found to be due to modulations in the meridional thickness gradient, thermal wind, and baroclinicity, leading to changes in the moisture flux onto the continent. The pattern of large-scale circulation changes over the tropical Indian Ocean and adjacent land masses is consistent with an anomalous strengthening of the Walker cell, leading to variations in precipitation of opposite sign across western and eastern regions of the basin. Links between long-term changes in Indian Ocean surface properties and regional precipitation changes in Indian Ocean rim countries are also discussed in a broader context with implications for water management and seasonal forecasting.

  8. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    KAUST Repository

    Srinivas, C. V.

    2015-09-11

    This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP) global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department) rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid) of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast) with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative) and above-normal onset (June positive) phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over northeast, east and

  9. Simulation of the Indian summer monsoon onset-phase rainfall using a regional model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. V. Srinivas

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the ability of the Advanced Research WRF (ARW regional model to simulate Indian summer monsoon (ISM rainfall climatology in different climate zones during the monsoon onset phase in the decade 2000–2009. The initial and boundary conditions for ARW are provided from the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis Project (NNRP global reanalysis. Seasonal onset-phase rainfall is compared with corresponding values from 0.25° IMD (India Meteorological Department rainfall and NNRP precipitation data over seven climate zones (perhumid, humid, dry/moist, subhumid, dry/moist, semiarid and arid of India to see whether dynamical downscaling using a regional model yields advantages over just using large-scale model predictions. Results show that the model could simulate the onset phase in terms of progression and distribution of rainfall in most zones (except over the northeast with good correlations and low error metrics. The observed mean onset dates and their variability over different zones are well reproduced by the regional model over most climate zones. It has been found that the ARW performed similarly to the reanalysis in most zones and improves the onset time by 1 to 3 days in zones 4 and 7, in which the NNRP shows a delayed onset compared to the actual IMD onset times. The variations in the onset-phase rainfall during the below-normal onset (June negative and above-normal onset (June positive phases are well simulated. The slight underestimation of onset-phase rainfall in the northeast zone could be due to failure in resolving the wide extent of topographic variations and the associated multiscale interactions in that zone. Spatial comparisons showed improvement of pentad rainfall in both space and quantity in ARW simulations over NNRP data, as evident from a wider eastward distribution of pentad rainfall over the Western Ghats, central and eastern India, as in IMD observations. While NNRP under-represented the high pentad rainfall over

  10. A Metastatistical Approach to Satellite Estimates of Extreme Rainfall Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zorzetto, E.; Marani, M.

    2017-12-01

    The estimation of the average recurrence interval of intense rainfall events is a central issue for both hydrologic modeling and engineering design. These estimates require the inference of the properties of the right tail of the statistical distribution of precipitation, a task often performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, estimated either from a samples of annual maxima (AM) or with a peaks over threshold (POT) approach. However, these approaches require long and homogeneous rainfall records, which often are not available, especially in the case of remote-sensed rainfall datasets. We use here, and tailor it to remotely-sensed rainfall estimates, an alternative approach, based on the metastatistical extreme value distribution (MEVD), which produces estimates of rainfall extreme values based on the probability distribution function (pdf) of all measured `ordinary' rainfall event. This methodology also accounts for the interannual variations observed in the pdf of daily rainfall by integrating over the sample space of its random parameters. We illustrate the application of this framework to the TRMM Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis rainfall dataset, where MEVD optimally exploits the relatively short datasets of satellite-sensed rainfall, while taking full advantage of its high spatial resolution and quasi-global coverage. Accuracy of TRMM precipitation estimates and scale issues are here investigated for a case study located in the Little Washita watershed, Oklahoma, using a dense network of rain gauges for independent ground validation. The methodology contributes to our understanding of the risk of extreme rainfall events, as it allows i) an optimal use of the TRMM datasets in estimating the tail of the probability distribution of daily rainfall, and ii) a global mapping of daily rainfall extremes and distributional tail properties, bridging the existing gaps in rain gauges networks.

  11. Long-term variations of fumarole temperatures on Vulcano Island (Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iole Serena Diliberto

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Fumarole temperatures are the ultimate results of many processes that are encountered by deep fluids during their passage to the surface. Here, the time variations of high-temperature fumaroles acquired by continuous monitoring are presented, to show the effects of the forces that act on the system. Data acquired by continuous monitoring of fumaroles and the time relationships with the different parameters related to the activity of the volcanic system are discussed. From 1998 to 2010, the temperature and compositional changes of fumarolic gases were monitored at the same time as variations in the number of volcano-seismic events, which indicate frequent variations of energy release (heat and mass flow, and seismic strain release. Geochemical modeling applied to the volcanic system of Vulcano Island suggests that the overall expansion of magmatic gas through the fractured system is an almost iso-enthalpic process at depth, which shifts to an adiabatic process at shallow depth, where the rock permeability increases. Thus, the time variations of the fumarole temperatures reflect various physical variations of the system that can either occur at depth or close to the surface. The temperature monitoring performed in the fumarolic area of La Fossa Cone showed short-term effects related to rain events, and negligible effects related to other external agents (ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure variations. At the same time, the long-term monitoring highlighted some mean-term and long-term variations. These last are the main characters observed in the time-series, and they both appear to be related to endogenous forces that perturb the equilibrium of this complex geochemical system.

  12. Long term spatial and temporal rainfall trends and homogeneity analysis in Wainganga basin, Central India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arun Kumar Taxak

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Gridded rainfall data of 0.5×0.5° resolution (CRU TS 3.21 was analysed to study long term spatial and temporal trends on annual and seasonal scales in Wainganga river basin located in Central India during 1901–2012. After testing the presence of autocorrelation, Mann–Kendall (Modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to non-auto correlated (auto correlated series to detect the trends in rainfall data. Theil and Sen׳s slope estimator test was used for finding the magnitude of change over a time period. For detecting the most probable change year, Pettitt–Mann–Whitney test was applied. The Rainfall series was then divided into two partial duration series for finding changes in trends before and after the change year. Arc GIS was used to explore spatial patterns of the trends over the entire basin. Though most of the grid points shows a decreasing trend in annual rainfall, only seven grids has a significant decreasing trend during 1901–2012. On the basis of seasonal trend analysis, non-significant increasing trend is observed only in post monsoon season while seven grid points show significant decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall and non-significant in pre-monsoon and winter rainfall over the last 112 years. During the study period, overall a 8.45% decrease in annual rainfall is estimated. The most probable year of change was found to be 1948 in annual and monsoonal rainfall. There is an increasing rainfall trend in the basin during the period 1901–1948, which is reversed during the period 1949–2012 resulting in decreasing rainfall trend in the basin. Homogeneous trends in annual and seasonal rainfall over a grid points is exhibited in the basin by van Belle and Hughes׳ homogeneity trend test.

  13. The Demonstration of Short-Term Consolidation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolicoeur, Pierre; Dell'Acqua, Roberto

    1998-01-01

    Results of seven experiments involving 112 college students or staff using a dual-task approach provide evidence that encoding information into short-term memory involves a distinct process termed short-term consolidation (STC). Results suggest that STC has limited capacity and that it requires central processing mechanisms. (SLD)

  14. Seasonal variation and climate change impact in Rainfall Erosivity across Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panagos, Panos; Borrelli, Pasquale; Meusburger, Katrin; Alewell, Christine; Ballabio, Cristiano

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall erosivity quantifies the climatic effect on water erosion and is of high importance for soil scientists, land use planners, agronomists, hydrologists and environmental scientists in general. The rainfall erosivity combines the influence of rainfall duration, magnitude, frequency and intensity. Rainfall erosivity is calculated from a series of single storm events by multiplying the total storm kinetic energy with the measured maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity. This estimation requests high temporal resolution (e.g. 30 minutes) rainfall data for sufficiently long time periods (i.e. 20 years). The European Commission's Joint Research Centr(JRC) in collaboration with national/regional meteorological services and Environmental Institutions made an extensive data collection of high resolution rainfall data in the 28 Member States of the European Union plus Switzerland to estimate rainfall erosivity in Europe. This resulted in the Rainfall Erosivity Database on the European Scale (REDES) which included 1,675 stations. The interpolation of those point erosivity values with a Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) model has resulted in the first Rainfall Erosivity map of Europe (Science of the Total Environment, 511: 801-815). In 2016, REDES extended with a monthly component, which allowed developing monthly and seasonal erosivity maps and assessing rainfall erosivity both spatially and temporally for European Union and Switzerland. The monthly erosivity maps have been used to develop composite indicators that map both intra-annual variability and concentration of erosive events (Science of the Total Environment, 579: 1298-1315). Consequently, spatio-temporal mapping of rainfall erosivity permits to identify the months and the areas with highest risk of soil loss where conservation measures should be applied in different seasons of the year. Finally, the identification of the most erosive month allows recommending certain agricultural management practices (crop

  15. Impacts of short-term heatwaves on sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence(SiF) in temperate tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, F.; Gu, L.; Guha, A.; Han, J.; Warren, J.

    2017-12-01

    The current projections for global climate change forecast an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, such as droughts and short-term heat waves. Understanding the effects of short-term heat wave on photosynthesis process is of critical importance to predict global impacts of extreme weather event on vegetation. The diurnal and seasonal characteristics of SIF emitted from natural vegetation, e.g., forest and crop, have been studied at the ecosystem-scale, regional-scale and global-scale. However, the detailed response of SIF from different plant species under extremely weather event, especially short-term heat wave, have not been reported. The purpose of this study was to study the response of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence, gas exchange and continuous fluorescence at leaf scale for different temperate tree species. The short-term heatwave experiment was conducted using plant growth chamber (CMP6050, Conviron Inc., Canada). We developed an advanced spectral fitting method to obtain the plant SIF in the plant growth chamber. We compared SIF variation among different wavelength and chlorophyll difference among four temperate tree species. The diurnal variation of SIF signals at leaf-scales for temperate tree species are different under heat stress. The SIF response at leaf-scales and their difference for four temperate tree species are different during a cycle of short-term heatwave stress. We infer that SIF be used as a measure of heat tolerance for temperate tree species.

  16. An Atlantic influence on Amazon rainfall

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoon, Jin-Ho [University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States); Zeng, Ning [University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, College Park, MD (United States); University of Maryland, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD (United States)

    2010-02-15

    Rainfall variability over the Amazon basin has often been linked to variations in Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), and in particular, to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, only a fraction of Amazon rainfall variability can be explained by ENSO. Building upon the recent work of Zeng (Environ Res Lett 3:014002, 2008), here we provide further evidence for an influence on Amazon rainfall from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The strength of the North Atlantic influence is found to be comparable to the better-known Pacific ENSO connection. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean also shows some influence during the wet-to-dry season transition period. The Atlantic influence is through changes in the north-south divergent circulation and the movement of the ITCZ following warm SST. Therefore, it is strongest in the southern part of the Amazon basin during the Amazon's dry season (July-October). In contrast, the ENSO related teleconnection is through anomalous east-west Walker circulation with largely concentrated in the eastern (lower) Amazon. This ENSO connection is seasonally locked to boreal winter. A complication due to the influence of ENSO on Atlantic SST causes an apparent North Atlantic SST lag of Amazon rainfall. Removing ENSO from North Atlantic SST via linear regression resolves this causality problem in that the residual Atlantic variability correlates well and is in phase with the Amazon rainfall. A strong Atlantic influence during boreal summer and autumn is particularly significant in terms of the impact on the hydro-ecosystem which is most vulnerable during the dry season, as highlighted by the severe 2005 Amazon drought. Such findings have implications for both seasonal-interannual climate prediction and understanding the longer-term changes of the Amazon rainforest. (orig.)

  17. Analysis of Rainfall Variations and Trends in Coastal Tanzania

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Ocean Dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation ... island of Mafia receives the highest amount of rainfall (1879 mm p.a.) while Kilwa. Masoko receives the ... However, the effects of the Pacific .... an important role in terrestrial and marine .... and ENSO, the largest coefficient being .... rainfall on the small islands of Southeast Asia.

  18. The suitability of short-term measurements of radon in the built environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denman, A.R.; Groves-Kirkby, C.J.; Phillips, P.S.; Crockett, R.G.M.; Woolridge, A.C.

    2008-01-01

    Although domestic and workplace radon concentration levels often show marked diurnal/short-term variation, overall health risk is determined by the long-term average level, and many national protocols advocate the use of long exposure periods, usually three months, to assess long-term risk. Simple passive measurement techniques, e.g. track-etch, activated charcoal and electret, can, however, provide reasonably accurate determinations with exposures as short as one week, and there is pressure from users and stake holders for assessments within this time period. We report evaluation of the effectiveness of one-week, one-month and three-month exposures over a period of one year in a designated Radon Affected Area in the United Kingdom (UK). Although short-term exposures did not compromise measurement accuracy, short-term radon variability rendered one-week measurements less reliable in predicting annual average radon levels via the conventional methodology. Analysis permitted estimation of the maximum and minimum short-term measured domestic radon concentrations at which there was 95% probability of the predicted annual average being below or above the UK Action Level of 200 Bq·m -3 respectively. Between these limits, the short-term result is equivocal, requiring repetition, and the 'equivocal range' for one-week measurements is significantly wider than for three-month exposures. In any geographical area, domestic radon concentrations are distributed log normally, with many properties having low average levels; a small number exhibit excessive levels, and this distribution must be considered when defining exposures for a radon measurement programme. In low-radon areas, where 1% of houses might exceed the Action Level, a one-week assessment will find that fewer outcomes are equivocal. For high-radon areas, with 20% or more houses over the Action Level, more than 50% of one-week outcomes will be equivocal, requiring repeats. The results of this work will be presented

  19. A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Haberlandt

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series.

    First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in

  20. What are the differences between long-term, short-term, and working memory?

    OpenAIRE

    Cowan, Nelson

    2008-01-01

    In the recent literature there has been considerable confusion about the three types of memory: long-term, short-term, and working memory. This chapter strives to reduce that confusion and makes up-to-date assessments of these types of memory. Long- and short-term memory could differ in two fundamental ways, with only short-term memory demonstrating (1) temporal decay and (2) chunk capacity limits. Both properties of short-term memory are still controversial but the current literature is rath...

  1. Annual Rainfall Forecasting by Using Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah-Ghalhary, G.-A.; Habibi Nokhandan, M.; Mousavi Baygi, M.

    2009-04-01

    Long-term rainfall prediction is very important to countries thriving on agro-based economy. In general, climate and rainfall are highly non-linear phenomena in nature giving rise to what is known as "butterfly effect". The parameters that are required to predict the rainfall are enormous even for a short period. Soft computing is an innovative approach to construct computationally intelligent systems that are supposed to possess humanlike expertise within a specific domain, adapt themselves and learn to do better in changing environments, and explain how they make decisions. Unlike conventional artificial intelligence techniques the guiding principle of soft computing is to exploit tolerance for imprecision, uncertainty, robustness, partial truth to achieve tractability, and better rapport with reality. In this paper, 33 years of rainfall data analyzed in khorasan state, the northeastern part of Iran situated at latitude-longitude pairs (31°-38°N, 74°- 80°E). this research attempted to train Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) based prediction models with 33 years of rainfall data. For performance evaluation, the model predicted outputs were compared with the actual rainfall data. Simulation results reveal that soft computing techniques are promising and efficient. The test results using by FIS model showed that the RMSE was obtained 52 millimeter.

  2. Short-term memory across eye blinks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, David E

    2014-01-01

    The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

  3. Short-term memory and dual task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, J. E.

    1982-01-01

    Two hypotheses concerning the way in which short-term memory interacts with another task in a dual task situation are considered. It is noted that when two tasks are combined, the activity of controlling and organizing performance on both tasks simultaneously may compete with either task for a resource; this resource may be space in a central mechanism or general processing capacity or it may be some task-specific resource. If a special relationship exists between short-term memory and control, especially if there is an identity relationship between short-term and a central controlling mechanism, then short-term memory performance should show a decrement in a dual task situation. Even if short-term memory does not have any particular identity with a controlling mechanism, but both tasks draw on some common resource or resources, then a tradeoff between the two tasks in allocating resources is possible and could be reflected in performance. The persistent concurrence cost in memory performance in these experiments suggests that short-term memory may have a unique status in the information processing system.

  4. Temperature and rainfall interact to control carbon cycling in tropical forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Philip G; Cleveland, Cory C; Wieder, William R; Sullivan, Benjamin W; Doughty, Christopher E; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Townsend, Alan R

    2017-06-01

    Tropical forests dominate global terrestrial carbon (C) exchange, and recent droughts in the Amazon Basin have contributed to short-term declines in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake and storage. However, the effects of longer-term climate variability on tropical forest carbon dynamics are still not well understood. We synthesised field data from more than 150 tropical forest sites to explore how climate regulates tropical forest aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) and organic matter decomposition, and combined those data with two existing databases to explore climate - C relationships globally. While previous analyses have focused on the effects of either temperature or rainfall on ANPP, our results highlight the importance of interactions between temperature and rainfall on the C cycle. In cool forests (forests (> 20 °C) it consistently enhanced both ANPP and decomposition. At the global scale, our analysis showed an increase in ANPP with rainfall in relatively warm sites, inconsistent with declines in ANPP with rainfall reported previously. Overall, our results alter our understanding of climate - C cycle relationships, with high precipitation accelerating rates of C exchange with the atmosphere in the most productive biome on earth. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  5. Automatic Extraction of High-Resolution Rainfall Series from Rainfall Strip Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saa-Requejo, Antonio; Valencia, Jose Luis; Garrido, Alberto; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2015-04-01

    those have been scanned in two parts, detect and cut the borders of bands not used (demanded by the software). Also some variations in which colour system is tried basing in HUE or RGB colour have been included. Thanks to apply this digitization rainfall strip charts 209 station-years of three locations in the centre of Spain have been transformed to long-term rainfall time series with 5-min resolution. References van Piggelen, H.E., T. Brandsma, H. Manders, and J. F. Lichtenauer, 2011: Automatic Curve Extraction for Digitizing Rainfall Strip Charts. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 28, 891-906. Acknowledgements Financial support for this research by DURERO Project (Env.C1.3913442) is greatly appreciated.

  6. Language differences in verbal short-term memory do not exclusively originate in the process of subvocal rehearsal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorn, A S; Gathercole, S E

    2001-06-01

    Language differences in verbal short-term memory were investigated in two experiments. In Experiment 1, bilinguals with high competence in English and French and monolingual English adults with extremely limited knowledge of French were assessed on their serial recall of words and nonwords in both languages. In all cases recall accuracy was superior in the language with which individuals were most familiar, a first-language advantage that remained when variation due to differential rates of articulation in the two languages was taken into account. In Experiment 2, bilinguals recalled lists of English and French words with and without concurrent articulatory suppression. First-language superiority persisted under suppression, suggesting that the language differences in recall accuracy were not attributable to slower rates of subvocal rehearsal in the less familiar language. The findings indicate that language-specific differences in verbal short-term memory do not exclusively originate in the subvocal rehearsal process. It is suggested that one source of language-specific variation might relate to the use of long-term knowledge to support short-term memory performance.

  7. Short-term LNG-markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldegard, Tom; Lund, Arne-Christian; Miltersen, Kristian; Rud, Linda

    2005-01-01

    The global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry has experienced substantial growth in the past decades. In the traditional trade patterns of LNG the product has typically been handled within a dedicated chain of plants and vessels fully committed by long term contracts or common ownership, providing risk sharing of large investments in a non-liquid market. Increasing gas prices and substantial cost reductions in all parts of the LNG chain have made LNG projects viable even if only part of the capacity is secured by long-term contracts, opening for more flexible trade of the remainder. Increasing gas demand, especially in power generation, combined with cost reductions in the cost of LNG terminals, open new markets for LNG. For the LNG supplier, the flexibility of shifting volumes between regions represents an additional value. International trade in LNG has been increasing, now accounting for more than one fifth of the world's cross-border gas trade. Despite traditional vertical chain bonds, increased flexibility has contributed in fact to an increasing LNG spot trade, representing 8% of global trade in 2002. The focus of this paper is on the development of global short-term LNG markets, and their role with respect to efficiency and security of supply in European gas markets. Arbitrage opportunities arising from price differences between regional markets (such as North America versus Europe) are important impetuses for flexible short-term trade. However, the short-term LNG trade may suffer from problems related to market access, e.g. limited access to terminals and regulatory issues, as well as rigidities connected to vertical binding within the LNG chain. Important issues related to the role of short-term LNG-trade in the European gas market are: Competition, flexibility in meeting peak demand, security of supply and consequences of differences in pricing policies (oil-linked prices in Europe and spot market prices in North America). (Author)

  8. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Decomposition-Based Neural Networks Combining Abnormal Detection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuejun Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As one of the most promising renewable resources in electricity generation, wind energy is acknowledged for its significant environmental contributions and economic competitiveness. Because wind fluctuates with strong variation, it is quite difficult to describe the characteristics of wind or to estimate the power output that will be injected into the grid. In particular, short-term wind speed forecasting, an essential support for the regulatory actions and short-term load dispatching planning during the operation of wind farms, is currently regarded as one of the most difficult problems to be solved. This paper contributes to short-term wind speed forecasting by developing two three-stage hybrid approaches; both are combinations of the five-three-Hanning (53H weighted average smoothing method, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD algorithm, and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR neural networks. The chosen datasets are ten-minute wind speed observations, including twelve samples, and our simulation indicates that the proposed methods perform much better than the traditional ones when addressing short-term wind speed forecasting problems.

  9. Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukabutera, Assumpta; Thomson, Dana; Murray, Megan; Basinga, Paulin; Nyirazinyoye, Laetitia; Atwood, Sidney; Savage, Kevin P; Ngirimana, Aimable; Hedt-Gauthier, Bethany L

    2016-08-05

    Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff) but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

  10. Short-term incentive schemes for hospital managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Malambe

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: Short-term incentives, considered to be an extrinsic motivation, are commonly used to motivate performance. This study explored hospital managers’ perceptions of short term incentives in maximising performance and retention. Research purpose: The study explored the experiences, views and perceptions of private hospital managers in South Africa regarding the use of short-term incentives to maximise performance and retention, as well as the applicability of the findings to public hospitals. Motivation for the study: Whilst there is an established link between performance reward schemes and organisational performance, there is little understanding of the effects of short term incentives on the performance and retention of hospital managers within the South African context. Research design, approach, and method: The study used a qualitative research design: interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 19 hospital managers, and a thematic content analysis was performed. Main findings: Short-term incentives may not be the primary motivator for hospital managers, but they do play a critical role in sustaining motivation. Participants indicated that these schemes could also be applicable to public hospitals. Practical/managerial implications: Hospital managers are inclined to be more motivated by intrinsic than extrinsic factors. However, hospital managers (as middle managers also seem to be motivated by short-term incentives. A combination of intrinsic and extrinsic motivators should thus be used to maximise performance and retention. Contribution/value-add: Whilst the study sought to explore hospital managers’ perceptions of short-term incentives, it also found that an adequate balance between internal and external motivators is key to implementing an effective short-term incentive scheme.

  11. Short-Term Intercultural Psychotherapy: Ethnographic Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, Karen M.

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical…

  12. Why do short term workers have high mortality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolstad, Henrik; Olsen, Jørn

    1999-01-01

    or violence, the rate ratios for short term employment were 2.30 (95% Cl 1.74-3.06) and 1.86 (95% Cl 1.35-2.56), respectively. An unhealthy lifestyle may also be a determinant of short term employment. While it is possible in principle to adjust for lifestyle factors if proper data are collected, the health......Increased mortality is often reported among workers in short term employment. This may indicate either a health-related selection process or the presence of different lifestyle or social conditions among short term workers. The authors studied these two aspects of short term employment among 16...

  13. Short-term variability of mineral dust, metals and carbon emission from road dust resuspension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amato, F.; Schaap, M.; Denier van der Gon, H.A.C.; Pandolfi, M.; Alastuey, A.; Keuken, M.; Querol, X.

    2013-01-01

    Particulate matter (PM) pollution in cities has severe impact on morbidity and mortality of their population. In these cities, road dust resuspension contributes largely to PM and airborne heavy metals concentrations. However, the short-term variation of emission through resuspension is not well

  14. Constraining Marsh Carbon Budgets Using Long-Term C Burial and Contemporary Atmospheric CO2 Fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forbrich, I.; Giblin, A. E.; Hopkinson, C. S.

    2018-03-01

    Salt marshes are sinks for atmospheric carbon dioxide that respond to environmental changes related to sea level rise and climate. Here we assess how climatic variations affect marsh-atmosphere exchange of carbon dioxide in the short term and compare it to long-term burial rates based on radiometric dating. The 5 years of atmospheric measurements show a strong interannual variation in atmospheric carbon exchange, varying from -104 to -233 g C m-2 a-1 with a mean of -179 ± 32 g C m-2 a-1. Variation in these annual sums was best explained by differences in rainfall early in the growing season. In the two years with below average rainfall in June, both net uptake and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index were less than in the other three years. Measurements in 2016 and 2017 suggest that the mechanism behind this variability may be rainfall decreasing soil salinity which has been shown to strongly control productivity. The net ecosystem carbon balance was determined as burial rate from four sediment cores using radiometric dating and was lower than the net uptake measured by eddy covariance (mean: 110 ± 13 g C m-2 a-1). The difference between these estimates was significant and may be because the atmospheric measurements do not capture lateral carbon fluxes due to tidal exchange. Overall, it was smaller than values reported in the literature for lateral fluxes and highlights the importance of investigating lateral C fluxes in future studies.

  15. Rainfall Stochastic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campo, M. A.; Lopez, J. J.; Rebole, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    This work was carried out in north of Spain. San Sebastian A meteorological station, where there are available precipitation records every ten minutes was selected. Precipitation data covers from October of 1927 to September of 1997. Pulse models describe the temporal process of rainfall as a succession of rainy cells, main storm, whose origins are distributed in time according to a Poisson process and a secondary process that generates a random number of cells of rain within each storm. Among different pulse models, the Bartlett-Lewis was used. On the other hand, alternative renewal processes and Markov chains describe the way in which the process will evolve in the future depending only on the current state. Therefore they are nor dependant on past events. Two basic processes are considered when describing the occurrence of rain: the alternation of wet and dry periods and temporal distribution of rainfall in each rain event, which determines the rainwater collected in each of the intervals that make up the rain. This allows the introduction of alternative renewal processes and Markov chains of three states, where interstorm time is given by either of the two dry states, short or long. Thus, the stochastic model of Markov chains tries to reproduce the basis of pulse models: the succession of storms, each one composed for a series of rain, separated by a short interval of time without theoretical complexity of these. In a first step, we analyzed all variables involved in the sequential process of the rain: rain event duration, event duration of non-rain, average rainfall intensity in rain events, and finally, temporal distribution of rainfall within the rain event. Additionally, for pulse Bartlett-Lewis model calibration, main descriptive statistics were calculated for each month, considering the process of seasonal rainfall in each month. In a second step, both models were calibrated. Finally, synthetic series were simulated with calibration parameters; series

  16. Rainfall variation and child health: effect of rainfall on diarrhea among under 5 children in Rwanda, 2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assumpta Mukabutera

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Diarrhea among children under 5 years of age has long been a major public health concern. Previous studies have suggested an association between rainfall and diarrhea. Here, we examined the association between Rwandan rainfall patterns and childhood diarrhea and the impact of household sanitation variables on this relationship. Methods We derived a series of rain-related variables in Rwanda based on daily rainfall measurements and hydrological models built from daily precipitation measurements collected between 2009 and 2011. Using these data and the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey database, we measured the association between total monthly rainfall, monthly rainfall intensity, runoff water and anomalous rainfall and the occurrence of diarrhea in children under 5 years of age. Results Among the 8601 children under 5 years of age included in the survey, 13.2 % reported having diarrhea within the 2 weeks prior to the survey. We found that higher levels of runoff were protective against diarrhea compared to low levels among children who lived in households with unimproved toilet facilities (OR = 0.54, 95 % CI: [0.34, 0.87] for moderate runoff and OR = 0.50, 95 % CI: [0.29, 0.86] for high runoff but had no impact among children in household with improved toilets. Conclusion Our finding that children in households with unimproved toilets were less likely to report diarrhea during periods of high runoff highlights the vulnerabilities of those living without adequate sanitation to the negative health impacts of environmental events.

  17. [Responses of sap flow to natural rainfall and continuous drought of tree species growing on bedrock outcrops].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hui Ling; Ding, Ya Li; Chen, Hong Song; Wang, Ke Lin; Nie, Yun Peng

    2018-04-01

    This study focused on bedrock outcrops, a very common habitat in karst region of southwest China. To reveal the responses of plant transpiration to natural rainfall and continuous drought, two tree species typical to this habitat, Radermachera sinica and Triadica rotundifolia, were selected as test materials. A rainout shelter was used to simulate continuous drought. The sap flow dynamics were monitored using the method of Granier's thermal dissipation probe (TDP). Our results showed that sap flow density increased to different degrees after rain in different stages of the growing season. Sap flow density of the deciduous species T. rotundifolia was always higher than that of the semi-deciduous species R. sinica. After two months without rainfall input, both species exhibited no obvious decrease in sap flow density, indicating that rainfall was not the dominant source for their water uptake, at least in the short-term. Based on the regression relationships between sap flow density and meteorological factors before and after rainfall, as well as at different stages of continuous drought, we found that the dynamics of meteorological factors contributed little to plant transpiration. The basic transpiration characteristics of both species were not changed in the circumstance of natural rainfall and short-term continuous drought, which would be closely related to the special water storage environments of bedrock outcrops and the reliance on deep water sources by tree species.

  18. Mixed memory, (non) Hurst effect, and maximum entropy of rainfall in the tropical Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poveda, Germán

    2011-02-01

    Diverse linear and nonlinear statistical parameters of rainfall under aggregation in time and the kind of temporal memory are investigated. Data sets from the Andes of Colombia at different resolutions (15 min and 1-h), and record lengths (21 months and 8-40 years) are used. A mixture of two timescales is found in the autocorrelation and autoinformation functions, with short-term memory holding for time lags less than 15-30 min, and long-term memory onwards. Consistently, rainfall variance exhibits different temporal scaling regimes separated at 15-30 min and 24 h. Tests for the Hurst effect evidence the frailty of the R/ S approach in discerning the kind of memory in high resolution rainfall, whereas rigorous statistical tests for short-memory processes do reject the existence of the Hurst effect. Rainfall information entropy grows as a power law of aggregation time, S( T) ˜ Tβ with = 0.51, up to a timescale, TMaxEnt (70-202 h), at which entropy saturates, with β = 0 onwards. Maximum entropy is reached through a dynamic Generalized Pareto distribution, consistently with the maximum information-entropy principle for heavy-tailed random variables, and with its asymptotically infinitely divisible property. The dynamics towards the limit distribution is quantified. Tsallis q-entropies also exhibit power laws with T, such that Sq( T) ˜ Tβ( q) , with β( q) ⩽ 0 for q ⩽ 0, and β( q) ≃ 0.5 for q ⩾ 1. No clear patterns are found in the geographic distribution within and among the statistical parameters studied, confirming the strong variability of tropical Andean rainfall.

  19. Urban Run-off Volumes Dependency on Rainfall Measurement Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, L.; Jensen, N. E.; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2005-01-01

    Urban run-off is characterized with fast response since the large surface run-off in the catchments responds immediately to variations in the rainfall. Modeling such type of catchments is most often done with the input from very few rain gauges, but the large variation in rainfall over small areas...... resolutions and single gauge rainfall was fed to a MOUSE run-off model. The flow and total volume over the event is evaluated....

  20. Short-term mechanisms influencing volumetric brain dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikki Dieleman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI and brain analysis tools, it has become possible to measure brain volume changes up to around 0.5%. Besides long-term brain changes caused by atrophy in aging or neurodegenerative disease, short-term mechanisms that influence brain volume may exist. When we focus on short-term changes of the brain, changes may be either physiological or pathological. As such determining the cause of volumetric dynamics of the brain is essential. Additionally for an accurate interpretation of longitudinal brain volume measures by means of neurodegeneration, knowledge about the short-term changes is needed. Therefore, in this review, we discuss the possible mechanisms influencing brain volumes on a short-term basis and set-out a framework of MRI techniques to be used for volumetric changes as well as the used analysis tools. 3D T1-weighted images are the images of choice when it comes to MRI of brain volume. These images are excellent to determine brain volume and can be used together with an analysis tool to determine the degree of volume change. Mechanisms that decrease global brain volume are: fluid restriction, evening MRI measurements, corticosteroids, antipsychotics and short-term effects of pathological processes like Alzheimer's disease, hypertension and Diabetes mellitus type II. Mechanisms increasing the brain volume include fluid intake, morning MRI measurements, surgical revascularization and probably medications like anti-inflammatory drugs and anti-hypertensive medication. Exercise was found to have no effect on brain volume on a short-term basis, which may imply that dehydration caused by exercise differs from dehydration by fluid restriction. In the upcoming years, attention should be directed towards studies investigating physiological short-term changes within the light of long-term pathological changes. Ultimately this may lead to a better understanding of the physiological short-term effects of

  1. Verbal Short-Term Memory Span in Speech-Disordered Children: Implications for Articulatory Coding in Short-Term Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raine, Adrian; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Children with speech disorders had lower short-term memory capacity and smaller word length effect than control children. Children with speech disorders also had reduced speech-motor activity during rehearsal. Results suggest that speech rate may be a causal determinant of verbal short-term memory capacity. (BC)

  2. Short Communication: Prevalence of hypertension and variation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short Communication: Prevalence of hypertension and variation of blood pressure with age among adolescents in Chetla, India. I Saha, B Paul, A Dasgupta. Abstract. This community-based cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the prevalence of hypertension and variation of blood pressure with age among ...

  3. Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - Knowledge Engineering and Decision Support Research Center

    2012-07-01

    This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status are used. Besides the new operation conditions, the most accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of short-term and very short-term methods are used. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented. (orig.)

  4. Leaching variations of heavy metals in chelator-assisted phytoextraction by Zea mays L. exposed to acid rainfall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yayin; Luo, Dinggui; Liu, Lirong; Tan, Zicong; Lai, An; Liu, Guowei; Li, Junhui; Long, Jianyou; Huang, Xuexia; Chen, Yongheng

    2017-11-01

    Chelant-enhanced phytoextraction method has been put forward as an effective soil remediation method, whereas the heavy metal leaching could not be ignored. In this study, a cropping-leaching experiment, using soil columns, was applied to study the metal leaching variations during assisted phytoextraction of Cd- and Pb-polluted soils, using seedlings of Zea mays, applying three different chelators (EDTA, EDDS, and rhamnolipid), and artificial rainfall (acid rainfall or normal rainfall). It showed that artificial rainfall, especially artificial acid rain, after chelator application led to the increase of heavy metals in the leaching solution. EDTA increased both Cd and Pb concentrations in the leaching solution, obviously, whereas EDDS and rhamnolipid increased Cd concentration but not Pb. The amount of Cd and Pb decreased as the leaching solution increased, the patterns as well matched LRMs (linear regression models), with R-square (R 2 ) higher than 90 and 82% for Cd and Pb, respectively. The maximum cumulative Cd and Pb in the leaching solutions were 18.44 and 16.68%, respectively, which was amended by EDTA and acid rainwater (pH 4.5), and followed by EDDS (pH 4.5), EDDS (pH 6.5), rhamnolipid (0.5 g kg -1 soil, pH 4.5), and rhamnolipid (pH 6.5).

  5. A Two-year Record of Daily Rainfall Isotopes from Fiji: Implications for Reconstructing Precipitation from Speleothem δ18O

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brett, M.; Mattey, D.; Stephens, M.

    2015-12-01

    Oxygen isotopes in speleothem provide opportunities to construct precisely dated records of palaeoclimate variability, underpinned by an understanding of both the regional climate and local controls on isotopes in rainfall and groundwater. For tropical islands, a potential means to reconstruct past rainfall variability is to exploit the generally high correlation between rainfall amount and δ18O: the 'amount effect'. The GNIP program provides δ18O data at monthly resolution for several tropical Pacific islands but there are few data for precipitation isotopes at daily resolution, for investigating the amount effect over different timescales in a tropical maritime setting. Timescales are important since meteoric water feeding a speleothem has undergone storage and mixing in the aquifer system and understanding how the isotope amount effect is preserved in aquifer recharge has fundamental implications on the interpretation of speleothem δ18O in terms of palaeo-precipitation. The islands of Fiji host speleothem caves. Seasonal precipitation is related to the movement of the South Pacific Convergence Zone, and interannual variations in rainfall are coupled to ENSO behaviour. Individual rainfall events are stratiform or convective, with proximal moisture sources. We have daily resolution isotope data for rainfall collected at the University of the South Pacific in Suva, covering every rain event in 2012 and 2013. δ18O varies between -18‰ and +3‰ with the annual weighted averages at -7.6‰ and -6.8‰ respectively, while total recorded rainfall amount is similar in both years. We shall present analysis of our data compared with GNIP, meteorological data and back trajectory analyses to demonstrate the nature of the relationship between rainfall amount and isotopic signatures over this short timescale. Comparison with GNIP data for 2012-13 will shed light on the origin of the amount effect at monthly and seasonal timescales in convective, maritime, tropical

  6. The rainfall plot: its motivation, characteristics and pitfalls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domanska, Diana; Vodák, Daniel; Lund-Andersen, Christin; Salvatore, Stefania; Hovig, Eivind; Sandve, Geir Kjetil

    2017-05-18

    A visualization referred to as rainfall plot has recently gained popularity in genome data analysis. The plot is mostly used for illustrating the distribution of somatic cancer mutations along a reference genome, typically aiming to identify mutation hotspots. In general terms, the rainfall plot can be seen as a scatter plot showing the location of events on the x-axis versus the distance between consecutive events on the y-axis. Despite its frequent use, the motivation for applying this particular visualization and the appropriateness of its usage have never been critically addressed in detail. We show that the rainfall plot allows visual detection even for events occurring at high frequency over very short distances. In addition, event clustering at multiple scales may be detected as distinct horizontal bands in rainfall plots. At the same time, due to the limited size of standard figures, rainfall plots might suffer from inability to distinguish overlapping events, especially when multiple datasets are plotted in the same figure. We demonstrate the consequences of plot congestion, which results in obscured visual data interpretations. This work provides the first comprehensive survey of the characteristics and proper usage of rainfall plots. We find that the rainfall plot is able to convey a large amount of information without any need for parameterization or tuning. However, we also demonstrate how plot congestion and the use of a logarithmic y-axis may result in obscured visual data interpretations. To aid the productive utilization of rainfall plots, we demonstrate their characteristics and potential pitfalls using both simulated and real data, and provide a set of practical guidelines for their proper interpretation and usage.

  7. Comparison and Evolution of Extreme Rainfall-Induced Landslides in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunhung WU

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzed the characteristics of, and locations prone to, extreme rainfall-induced landslides in three watersheds in Taiwan, as well as the long-term evolution of landslides in the Laonong River watershed (LRW, based on multiannual landslide inventories during 2003–2014. Extreme rainfall-induced landslides were centralized beside sinuous or meandering reaches, especially those with large sediment deposition. Landslide-prone strata during extreme rainfall events were sandstone and siltstone. Large-scale landslides were likely to occur when the maximum 6-h accumulated rainfall exceeded 420 mm. All of the large-scale landslides induced by short-duration and high-intensity rainfall developed from historical small-scale landslides beside the sinuous or meandering reaches or in the source area of rivers. However, most of the large-scale landslides induced by long-duration and high-intensity rainfall were new but were still located beside sinuous or meandering reaches or near the source. The frequency density of landslides under long-duration and high-intensity rainfall was larger by one order than those under short-duration rainfall, and the β values in the landslide frequency density-area analysis ranged from 1.22 to 1.348. The number of downslope landslides was three times larger than those of midslope and upslope landslides. The extreme rainfall-induced landslides occurred in the erosion gullies upstream of the watersheds, whereas those beside rivers were downstream. Analysis of the long-term evolution of landslides in the LRW showed that the geological setting, sinuousness of reaches, and sediment yield volume determined their location and evolution. Small-scale landslides constituted 71.9–96.2% of the total cases from 2003 to 2014, and were more easily induced after Typhoon Morakot (2009. The frequency density of landslides after Morakot was greater by one order than before, with 61% to 68% of total landslides located in the

  8. The Mind and Brain of Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.; Nee, Derek Evan; Lustig, Cindy A.; Berman, Marc G.; Moore, Katherine Sledge

    2008-01-01

    The past 10 years have brought near-revolutionary changes in psychological theories about short-term memory, with similarly great advances in the neurosciences. Here, we critically examine the major psychological theories (the “mind”) of short-term memory and how they relate to evidence about underlying brain mechanisms. We focus on three features that must be addressed by any satisfactory theory of short-term memory. First, we examine the evidence for the architecture of short-term memory, w...

  9. Very-long-term and short-term chromatic adaptation: are their influences cumulative?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belmore, Suzanne C; Shevell, Steven K

    2011-02-09

    Very-long-term (VLT) chromatic adaptation results from exposure to an altered chromatic environment for days or weeks. Color shifts from VLT adaptation are observed hours or days after leaving the altered environment. Short-term chromatic adaptation, on the other hand, results from exposure for a few minutes or less, with color shifts measured within seconds or a few minutes after the adapting light is extinguished; recovery to the pre-adapted state is complete in less than an hour. Here, both types of adaptation were combined. All adaptation was to reddish-appearing long-wavelength light. Shifts in unique yellow were measured following adaptation. Previous studies demonstrate shifts in unique yellow due to VLT chromatic adaptation, but shifts from short-term chromatic adaptation to comparable adapting light can be far greater than from VLT adaptation. The question considered here is whether the color shifts from VLT adaptation are cumulative with large shifts from short-term adaptation or, alternatively, does simultaneous short-term adaptation eliminate color shifts caused by VLT adaptation. The results show the color shifts from VLT and short-term adaptation together are cumulative, which indicates that both short-term and very-long-term chromatic adaptation affect color perception during natural viewing. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Long vs. short-term energy storage:sensitivity analysis.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenung, Susan M. (Longitude 122 West, Inc., Menlo Park, CA); Hassenzahl, William V. (,Advanced Energy Analysis, Piedmont, CA)

    2007-07-01

    This report extends earlier work to characterize long-duration and short-duration energy storage technologies, primarily on the basis of life-cycle cost, and to investigate sensitivities to various input assumptions. Another technology--asymmetric lead-carbon capacitors--has also been added. Energy storage technologies are examined for three application categories--bulk energy storage, distributed generation, and power quality--with significant variations in discharge time and storage capacity. Sensitivity analyses include cost of electricity and natural gas, and system life, which impacts replacement costs and capital carrying charges. Results are presented in terms of annual cost, $/kW-yr. A major variable affecting system cost is hours of storage available for discharge.

  11. State-space adjustment of radar rainfall and skill score evaluation of stochastic volume forecasts in urban drainage systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Rasmussen, Michael Robdrup

    2013-01-01

    Merging of radar rainfall data with rain gauge measurements is a common approach to overcome problems in deriving rain intensities from radar measurements. We extend an existing approach for adjustment of C-band radar data using state-space models and use the resulting rainfall intensities as input...... improves runoff forecasts compared with using the original radar data and that rain gauge measurements as forecast input are also outperformed. Combining the data merging approach with short-term rainfall forecasting algorithms may result in further improved runoff forecasts that can be used in real time...

  12. Macroinvertebrate short-term responses to flow variation and oxygen depletion: A mesocosm approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calapez, Ana R; Branco, Paulo; Santos, José M; Ferreira, Teresa; Hein, Thomas; Brito, António G; Feio, Maria João

    2017-12-01

    In Mediterranean rivers, water scarcity is a key stressor with direct and indirect effects on other stressors, such as water quality decline and inherent oxygen depletion associated with pollutants inputs. Yet, predicting the responses of macroinvertebrates to these stressors combination is quite challenging due to the reduced available information, especially if biotic and abiotic seasonal variations are taken under consideration. This study focused on the response of macroinvertebrates by drift to single and combined effects of water scarcity and dissolved oxygen (DO) depletion over two seasons (winter and spring). A factorial design of two flow velocity levels - regular and low (vL) - with three levels of oxygen depletion - normoxia, medium depletion (dM) and higher depletion (dH) - was carried out in a 5-artificial channels system, in short-term experiments. Results showed that both stressors individually and together had a significant effect on macroinvertebrate drift ratio for both seasons. Single stressor effects showed that macroinvertebrate drift decreased with flow velocity reduction and increased with DO depletion, in both winter and spring experiments. Despite single stressors opposing effects in drift ratio, combined stressors interaction (vL×dM and vL×dH) induced a positive synergistic drift effect for both seasons, but only in winter the drift ratio was different between the levels of DO depletion. Stressors interaction in winter seemed to intensify drift response when reached lower oxygen saturation. Also, drift patterns were different between seasons for all treatments, which may depend on individual's life stage and seasonal behaviour. Water scarcity seems to exacerbate the oxygen depletion conditions resulting into a greater drifting of invertebrates. The potential effects of oxygen depletion should be evaluated when addressing the impacts of water scarcity on river ecosystems, since flow reductions will likely contribute to a higher oxygen

  13. SM2RAIN-CCI: a new global long-term rainfall data set derived from ESA CCI soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Brocca, Luca; Gruber, Alexander; Reimer, Christoph; Hahn, Sebastian; Paulik, Christoph; Dorigo, Wouter; Kidd, Richard; Wagner, Wolfgang

    2018-02-01

    Accurate and long-term rainfall estimates are the main inputs for several applications, from crop modeling to climate analysis. In this study, we present a new rainfall data set (SM2RAIN-CCI) obtained from the inversion of the satellite soil moisture (SM) observations derived from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) via SM2RAIN (Brocca et al., 2014). Daily rainfall estimates are generated for an 18-year long period (1998-2015), with a spatial sampling of 0.25° on a global scale, and are based on the integration of the ACTIVE and the PASSIVE ESA CCI SM data sets.The quality of the SM2RAIN-CCI rainfall data set is evaluated by comparing it with two state-of-the-art rainfall satellite products, i.e. the Tropical Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 real-time product (TMPA 3B42RT) and the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH), and one modeled data set (ERA-Interim). A quality check is carried out on a global scale at 1° of spatial sampling and 5 days of temporal sampling by comparing these products with the gauge-based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Daily (GPCC-FDD) product. SM2RAIN-CCI shows relatively good results in terms of correlation coefficient (median value > 0.56), root mean square difference (RMSD, median value test the capabilities of the data set to correctly identify rainfall events under different climate and precipitation regimes.The SM2RAIN-CCI rainfall data set is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.846259.

  14. Responses of diatom communities to hydrological processes during rainfall events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Naicheng; Faber, Claas; Ulrich, Uta; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-04-01

    The importance of diatoms as a tracer of hydrological processes has been recently recognized (Pfister et al. 2009, Pfister et al. 2011, Tauro et al. 2013). However, diatom variations in a short-term scale (e.g., sub-daily) during rainfall events have not been well documented yet. In this study, rainfall event-based diatom samples were taken at the outlet of the Kielstau catchment (50 km2), a lowland catchment in northern Germany. A total of nine rainfall events were caught from May 2013 to April 2014. Non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMDS) revealed that diatom communities of different events were well separated along NMDS axis I and II, indicating a remarkable temporal variation. By correlating water level (a proxy of discharge) and different diatom indices, close relationships were found. For example, species richness, biovolume (μm3), Shannon diversity and moisture index01 (%, classified according to van Dam et al. 1994) were positively related with water level at the beginning phase of the rainfall (i.e. increasing limb of discharge peak). However, in contrast, during the recession limb of the discharge peak, diatom indices showed distinct responses to water level declines in different rainfall events. These preliminary results indicate that diatom indices are highly related to hydrological processes. The next steps will include finding out the possible mechanisms of the above phenomena, and exploring the contributions of abiotic variables (e.g., hydrologic indices, nutrients) to diatom community patterns. Based on this and ongoing studies (Wu et al. unpublished data), we will incorporate diatom data into End Member Mixing Analysis (EMMA) and select the tracer set that is best suited for separation of different runoff components in our study catchment. Keywords: Diatoms, Rainfall event, Non-metric multidimensional scaling, Hydrological process, Indices References: Pfister L, McDonnell JJ, Wrede S, Hlúbiková D, Matgen P, Fenicia F, Ector L, Hoffmann L

  15. Short term memory in echo state networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jaeger, H.

    2001-01-01

    The report investigates the short-term memory capacity of echo state recurrent neural networks. A quantitative measure MC of short-term memory capacity is introduced. The main result is that MC 5 N for networks with linear Output units and i.i.d. input, where N is network size. Conditions under which these maximal memory capacities are realized are described. Several theoretical and practical examples demonstrate how the short-term memory capacities of echo state networks can be exploited for...

  16. Effect of Variations in Long-Duration Rainfall Intensity on Unsaturated Slope Stability

    OpenAIRE

    Hsin-Fu Yeh; Yi-Jin Tsai

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, many scientific methods have been used to prove that the Earth’s climate is changing. Climate change can affect rainfall patterns, which can in turn affect slope safety. Therefore, this study analyzed the effects of climate change on rainfall patterns from the perspective of rainfall intensity. This analysis was combined with numerical model analysis to examine the rainfall patterns of the Zengwen reservoir catchment area and its effects on slope stability. In this study, the...

  17. Rainfall variations over the Bay of Bengal and southern Tibetan Plateau and their connections with different tropical forcing during the early and middle summer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Z.; Yang, S.

    2016-12-01

    Strong rainfall always occurs in the South Asia region during the summer monsoon time (May-September), especially over the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and southern Tibetan Plateau (STP). The latent heating associated with such rainfall drives large-scale circulation and further influences weather and climate anomalies over the world. Few studies have focused on the intraseasonal difference of the rainfall interannual variations. Generally, two precipitation centers appear over the BOB and STP respectively, which are corresponding to the southern and northern upward branches of the South Asian summer monsoon. Our results indicate that the interannual variability of precipitation over the BOB is consistent with that over the STP during the early summer (May-June), but it is contrary during the midsummer (July-August). In early summer, precipitation over the BOB and STP is mainly regulated by the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in tropical eastern Pacific (corresponding to the ENSO). Warm SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific weaken upward motion and further precipitation over the BOB and STP through the modulation of zonal walker circulation. However, the tropical forcing exists over the western Maritime Continent (WMC) during midsummer, which induces the contrary variations of rainfall over the BOB and STP. Warm WMC SST anomalies lead to an anticyclone over the BOB, which is unfavourable to the BOB rainfall. While the southwesterlies at the northwest of that anticyclone favor moisture transport to the Tibetan Plateau and thus an enhancement in rainfall over the STP.

  18. Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

    2008-01-01

    Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response

  19. Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Identification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, F. R.; Funk, C.

    2014-01-01

    Hidden Markov models can be used to investigate structure of subseasonal variability. East African short rain variability has connections to large-scale tropical variability. MJO - Intraseasonal variations connected with appearance of "wet" and "dry" states. ENSO/IOZM SST and circulation anomalies are apparent during years of anomalous residence time in the subseasonal "wet" state. Similar results found in previous studies, but we can interpret this with respect to variations of subseasonal wet and dry modes. Reveal underlying connections between MJO/IOZM/ENSO with respect to East African rainfall.

  20. Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yalcinoz, T.; Eminoglu, U.

    2005-01-01

    Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey

  1. The application of knemometry to measure childhood short-term growth among the indigenous Shuar of Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urlacher, Samuel S; Snodgrass, J Josh; Liebert, Melissa A; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Gildner, Theresa E; Sugiyama, Lawrence S

    2016-06-01

    Knemometry, the precise measurement of lower leg (LL) length, suggests that childhood short-term (e.g., weekly) growth is a dynamic, nonlinear process. However, owing to the large size and complexity of the traditional knemometer device, previous study of short-term growth among children has been restricted predominantly to clinical settings in industrialized Western nations. The aim of the present study is to address this limitation and promote broader understandings of global variation in childhood development by: (1) describing a custom-built portable knemometer and assessing its performance in the field; and (2) demonstrating the potential application of such a device by characterizing childhood short-term LL growth among the indigenous Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Mixed-longitudinal LL length data were collected weekly from 336 Shuar children age 5-12 years old using the custom portable knemometer (n = 1,145 total observations). Device performance and Shuar short-term LL growth were explored using linear mixed effects models and descriptive statistics. The portable knemometer performed well across a range of participant characteristics and possesses a low technical error of measurement of 0.18 mm. Shuar childhood LL growth averages 0.47 mm/week (SD = 0.75 mm/week), but exhibits large between- and within-individual variation. Knemometry can be reliably performed in the field, providing a means for evaluating childhood short-term growth among genetically and ecologically diverse populations. Preliminary findings suggest that Shuar weekly LL growth is comparable in mean magnitude but likely more variable than reported for healthy Western children. Future work will further explore these patterns. Am J Phys Anthropol 160:353-357, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  2. Short-Term Memory and Aphasia: From Theory to Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkina, Irene; Rosenberg, Samantha; Kalinyak-Fliszar, Michelene; Martin, Nadine

    2017-02-01

    This article reviews existing research on the interactions between verbal short-term memory and language processing impairments in aphasia. Theoretical models of short-term memory are reviewed, starting with a model assuming a separation between short-term memory and language, and progressing to models that view verbal short-term memory as a cognitive requirement of language processing. The review highlights a verbal short-term memory model derived from an interactive activation model of word retrieval. This model holds that verbal short-term memory encompasses the temporary activation of linguistic knowledge (e.g., semantic, lexical, and phonological features) during language production and comprehension tasks. Empirical evidence supporting this model, which views short-term memory in the context of the processes it subserves, is outlined. Studies that use a classic measure of verbal short-term memory (i.e., number of words/digits correctly recalled in immediate serial recall) as well as those that use more intricate measures (e.g., serial position effects in immediate serial recall) are discussed. Treatment research that uses verbal short-term memory tasks in an attempt to improve language processing is then summarized, with a particular focus on word retrieval. A discussion of the limitations of current research and possible future directions concludes the review. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  3. Interactions of Grazing History, Cattle Removal and Time since Rain Drive Divergent Short-Term Responses by Desert Biota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Anke S. K.; Dickman, Chris R.; Wardle, Glenda M.; Greenville, Aaron C.

    2013-01-01

    Arid grasslands are used worldwide for grazing by domestic livestock, generating debate about how this pastoral enterprise may influence native desert biota. One approach to resolving this question is to experimentally reduce livestock numbers and measure the effects. However, a key challenge in doing this is that historical grazing impacts are likely to be cumulative and may therefore confound comparisons of the short-term responses of desert biota to changes in stocking levels. Arid areas are also subject to infrequent flooding rainfalls that drive productivity and dramatically alter abundances of flora and fauna. We took advantage of an opportunity to study the recent effects of a property-scale cattle removal on two properties with similarly varied grazing histories in central Australia. Following the removal of cattle in 2006 and before and after a significant rainfall event at the beginning of 2007, we sampled vegetation and small vertebrates on eight occasions until October 2008. Our results revealed significant interactions of time of survey with both grazing history and grazing removal for vascular plants, small mammals and reptiles. The mammals exhibited a three-way interaction of time, grazing history and grazing removal, thus highlighting the importance of careful sampling designs and timing for future monitoring. The strongest response to the cessation of grazing after two years was depressed reproductive output of plants in areas where cattle continued to graze. Our results confirm that neither vegetation nor small vertebrates necessarily respond immediately to the removal of livestock, but that rainfall events and cumulative grazing history are key determinants of floral and faunal performance in grassland landscapes with low and variable rainfall. We suggest that improved assessments could be made of the health of arid grazing environments if long-term monitoring were implemented to track the complex interactions that influence how native biota

  4. Strategies to take into account variations in extreme rainfall events for design storms in urban area: an example over Naples (Southern Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercogliano, P.; Rianna, G.

    2017-12-01

    Eminent works highlighted how available observations display ongoing increases in extreme rainfall events while climate models assess them for future. Although the constraints in rainfall networks observations and uncertainties in climate modelling currently affect in significant way investigations, the huge impacts potentially induced by climate changes (CC) suggest adopting effective adaptation measures in order to take proper precautions. In this regard, design storms are used by engineers to size hydraulic infrastructures potentially affected by direct (e.g. pluvial/urban flooding) and indirect (e.g. river flooding) effects of extreme rainfall events. Usually they are expressed as IDF curves, mathematical relationships between rainfall Intensity, Duration, and the return period (frequency, F). They are estimated interpreting through Extreme Theories Statistical Theories (ETST) past rainfall records under the assumption of steady conditions resulting then unsuitable under climate change. In this work, a methodology to estimate future variations in IDF curves is presented and carried out for the city of Naples (Southern Italy). In this regard, the Equidistance Quantile Matching Approach proposed by Sivrastav et al. (2014) is adopted. According it, daily-subdaily maximum precipitation observations [a] and the analogous daily data provided by climate projections on current [b] and future time spans [c] are interpreted in IDF terms through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) approach. After, quantile based mapping approach is used to establish a statistical relationship between cumulative distribution functions resulting by GEV of [a] and [b] (spatial downscaling) and [b] and [c] functions (temporal downscaling). Coupling so-obtained relations permits generating IDF curves under CC assumption. To account for uncertainties in future projections, all climate simulations available for the area in Euro-Cordex multimodel ensemble at 0.11° (about 12 km) are considered under

  5. Short-term memories with a stochastic perturbation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pontes, Jose C.A. de; Batista, Antonio M.; Viana, Ricardo L.; Lopes, Sergio R.

    2005-01-01

    We investigate short-term memories in linear and weakly nonlinear coupled map lattices with a periodic external input. We use locally coupled maps to present numerical results about short-term memory formation adding a stochastic perturbation in the maps and in the external input

  6. Short-term memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulouse, G.

    This is a rather bold attempt to bridge the gap between neuron structure and psychological data. We try to answer the question: Is there a relation between the neuronal connectivity in the human cortex (around 5,000) and the short-term memory capacity (7±2)? Our starting point is the Hopfield model (Hopfield 1982), presented in this volume by D.J. Amit.

  7. Analysis of recurrent neural networks for short-term energy load forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Persio, Luca; Honchar, Oleksandr

    2017-11-01

    Short-term forecasts have recently gained an increasing attention because of the rise of competitive electricity markets. In fact, short-terms forecast of possible future loads turn out to be fundamental to build efficient energy management strategies as well as to avoid energy wastage. Such type of challenges are difficult to tackle both from a theoretical and applied point of view. Latter tasks require sophisticated methods to manage multidimensional time series related to stochastic phenomena which are often highly interconnected. In the present work we first review novel approaches to energy load forecasting based on recurrent neural network, focusing our attention on long/short term memory architectures (LSTMs). Such type of artificial neural networks have been widely applied to problems dealing with sequential data such it happens, e.g., in socio-economics settings, for text recognition purposes, concerning video signals, etc., always showing their effectiveness to model complex temporal data. Moreover, we consider different novel variations of basic LSTMs, such as sequence-to-sequence approach and bidirectional LSTMs, aiming at providing effective models for energy load data. Last but not least, we test all the described algorithms on real energy load data showing not only that deep recurrent networks can be successfully applied to energy load forecasting, but also that this approach can be extended to other problems based on time series prediction.

  8. Competitive short-term and long-term memory processes in spatial habituation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, David J; Bannerman, David M

    2011-04-01

    Exposure to a spatial location leads to habituation of exploration such that, in a novelty preference test, rodents subsequently prefer exploring a novel location to the familiar location. According to Wagner's (1981) theory of memory, short-term and long-term habituation are caused by separate and sometimes opponent processes. In the present study, this dual-process account of memory was tested. Mice received a series of exposure training trials to a location before receiving a novelty preference test. The novelty preference was greater when tested after a short, rather than a long, interval. In contrast, the novelty preference was weaker when exposure training trials were separated by a short, rather than a long interval. Furthermore, it was found that long-term habituation was determined by the independent effects of the amount of exposure training and the number of exposure training trials when factors such as the intertrial interval and the cumulative intertrial interval were controlled. A final experiment demonstrated that a long-term reduction of exploration could be caused by a negative priming effect due to associations formed during exploration. These results provide evidence against a single-process account of habituation and suggest that spatial habituation is determined by both short-term, recency-based memory and long-term, incrementally strengthened memory.

  9. Retrieval-Induced Inhibition in Short-Term Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Min-Suk; Choi, Joongrul

    2015-07-01

    We used a visual illusion called motion repulsion as a model system for investigating competition between two mental representations. Subjects were asked to remember two random-dot-motion displays presented in sequence and then to report the motion directions for each. Remembered motion directions were shifted away from the actual motion directions, an effect similar to the motion repulsion observed during perception. More important, the item retrieved second showed greater repulsion than the item retrieved first. This suggests that earlier retrieval exerted greater inhibition on the other item being held in short-term memory. This retrieval-induced motion repulsion could be explained neither by reduced cognitive resources for maintaining short-term memory nor by continued inhibition between short-term memory representations. These results indicate that retrieval of memory representations inhibits other representations in short-term memory. We discuss mechanisms of retrieval-induced inhibition and their implications for the structure of memory. © The Author(s) 2015.

  10. Evaluation of Short Term Memory Span Function In Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barış ERGÜL

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Although details of the information encoded in the short-term memory where it is stored temporarily be recorded in the working memory in the next stage. Repeating the information mentally makes it remain in memory for a long time. Studies investigating the relationship between short-term memory and reading skills that are carried out to examine the relationship between short-term memory processes and reading comprehension. In this study information coming to short-term memory and the factors affecting operation of short term memory are investigated with regression model. The aim of the research is to examine the factors (age, IQ and reading skills that are expected the have an effect on short-term memory in children through regression analysis. One of the assumptions of regression analysis is to examine which has constant variance and normal distribution of the error term. In this study, because the error term is not normally distributed, robust regression techniques were applied. Also, for each technique; coefficient of determination is determined. According to the findings, the increase in age, IQ and reading skills caused the increase in short term memory in children. After applying robust regression techniques, the Winsorized Least Squares (WLS technique gives the highest coefficient of determination.

  11. Evaluation of empirical relationships between extreme rainfall and daily maximum temperature in Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herath, Sujeewa Malwila; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Nguyen, Van Thanh Van

    2018-01-01

    Understanding the relationships between extreme daily and sub-daily rainfall events and their governing factors is important in order to analyse the properties of extreme rainfall events in a changing climate. Atmospheric temperature is one of the dominant climate variables which has a strong relationship with extreme rainfall events. In this study, a temperature-rainfall binning technique is used to evaluate the dependency of extreme rainfall on daily maximum temperature. The Clausius-Clapeyron (C-C) relation was found to describe the relationship between daily maximum temperature and a range of rainfall durations from 6 min up to 24 h for seven Australian weather stations, the stations being located in Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Darwin, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney. The analysis shows that the rainfall - temperature scaling varies with location, temperature and rainfall duration. The Darwin Airport station shows a negative scaling relationship, while the other six stations show a positive relationship. To identify the trend in scaling relationship over time the same analysis is conducted using data covering 10 year periods. Results indicate that the dependency of extreme rainfall on temperature also varies with the analysis period. Further, this dependency shows an increasing trend for more extreme short duration rainfall and a decreasing trend for average long duration rainfall events at most stations. Seasonal variations of the scale changing trends were analysed by categorizing the summer and autumn seasons in one group and the winter and spring seasons in another group. Most of 99th percentile of 6 min, 1 h and 24 h rain durations at Perth, Melbourne and Sydney stations show increasing trend for both groups while Adelaide and Darwin show decreasing trend. Furthermore, majority of scaling trend of 50th percentile are decreasing for both groups.

  12. Evaluation of Short Term Memory Span Function In Children

    OpenAIRE

    Barış ERGÜL; Arzu ALTIN YAVUZ; Ebru GÜNDOĞAN AŞIK

    2016-01-01

    Although details of the information encoded in the short-term memory where it is stored temporarily be recorded in the working memory in the next stage. Repeating the information mentally makes it remain in memory for a long time. Studies investigating the relationship between short-term memory and reading skills that are carried out to examine the relationship between short-term memory processes and reading comprehension. In this study information coming to short-term memory and the factors ...

  13. Short-term Memory as a Processing Shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis-Smith, Marion Quinn

    1975-01-01

    The series of experiments described here examined the predictions for free recall from sequential models and the shift formulation, focusing on the roles of short- and long-term memory in the primacy/recency shift and on the effects of expectancies on short- and long-term memory. (Author/RK)

  14. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  15. On the relationship between short- and long-term memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    James (1890) divided memory into separate stores; primary and secondary – or short-term and long-term memory. The interaction between the two stores often assumes that information initially is represented in volatile short-term store before entering and consolidating in the more durable long-term......, accepted). Counter to popular beliefs this suggest that long-term memory precedes short-term memory and not vice versa....... memory system (e.g. Atkinson & Shiffrin, 1968). Short-term memory seems to provide a surprising processing bottleneck where only a very limited amount of information can be represented at any given moment (Miller, 1956; Cowan, 2001). A number of studies have investigated the nature of this processing...

  16. Diurnal variations of summer precipitation over the regions east to Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yang; Huang, Anning; Huang, Danqing; Chen, Fei; Yang, Ben; Zhou, Yang; Fang, Dexian; Zhang, Lujun; Wen, Lijuan

    2017-12-01

    Based on the hourly gauge-satellite merged precipitation product with the horizontal resolution of 0.1° latitude/longitude during 2008-2014, diurnal variations of the summer precipitation amount (PA), frequency (PF), and intensity (PI) with different duration time over the regions east to Tibetan Plateau have been systematically revealed in this study. Results indicate that the eight typical precipitation diurnal patterns identified by the cluster analysis display pronounced regional features among the plateaus, basins, plains, hilly and coastal areas. The precipitation diurnal cycles are significantly affected by the sub-grid terrain fluctuations. The PA, PF and PI of the total rainfall show much more pronounced double diurnal peaks with the sub-grid topography standard deviation (SD) decreased. Meanwhile, the diurnal peaks of PA and PF (PI) strengthen (weaken) with the sub-grid topography SD enhanced. Over the elevated mountain ranges, southeastern hilly and coastal regions, the PA and PF diurnal patterns of the total rainfall generally show predominant late-afternoon peaks, which are closely associated with the short-duration (≤slant 3 h) rainfall. Along the Tibetan Plateau to its downstream, the diurnal peaks of PA, PF and PI for the total rainfall all exhibit obvious eastward phase time delay mainly due to the diurnal evolutions of long-duration (> 6 h) rainfall. However, the 4-6 h rainfall leads to the eastward phase time delay of the total rainfall along the Taihang Mountains to its downstream. Further mechanism analysis suggests that the midnight to morning diurnal evolution of the long-duration rainfall is closely associated with the diurnal variations of the upward branches of thermally driven mountain-plain solenoids and the water vapor transport associated with the accelerated nocturnal southwesterly winds. The late-afternoon peak of the short-duration PA over the southeastern hilly and coastal regions is ascribed to the strong local thermal

  17. Short-term memory and long-term memory are still different.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Dennis

    2017-09-01

    A commonly expressed view is that short-term memory (STM) is nothing more than activated long-term memory. If true, this would overturn a central tenet of cognitive psychology-the idea that there are functionally and neurobiologically distinct short- and long-term stores. Here I present an updated case for a separation between short- and long-term stores, focusing on the computational demands placed on any STM system. STM must support memory for previously unencountered information, the storage of multiple tokens of the same type, and variable binding. None of these can be achieved simply by activating long-term memory. For example, even a simple sequence of digits such as "1, 3, 1" where there are 2 tokens of the digit "1" cannot be stored in the correct order simply by activating the representations of the digits "1" and "3" in LTM. I also review recent neuroimaging data that has been presented as evidence that STM is activated LTM and show that these data are exactly what one would expect to see based on a conventional 2-store view. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Spatial and temporal variation in rainfall erosivity in a Himalayan watershed

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ma, X.; Noordwijk, van M.; Xu, J.; Lu, X.

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change can modify rainfall patterns, leading to more extremes with associated erosion events. Rainfall erosivity, or the R-factor based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), indicates the potential water erosion risk and it plays an important role in water and soil

  19. Fast Weight Long Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Keller, T. Anderson; Sridhar, Sharath Nittur; Wang, Xin

    2018-01-01

    Associative memory using fast weights is a short-term memory mechanism that substantially improves the memory capacity and time scale of recurrent neural networks (RNNs). As recent studies introduced fast weights only to regular RNNs, it is unknown whether fast weight memory is beneficial to gated RNNs. In this work, we report a significant synergy between long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and fast weight associative memories. We show that this combination, in learning associative retrie...

  20. Short-term landfill methane emissions dependency on wind.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delkash, Madjid; Zhou, Bowen; Han, Byunghyun; Chow, Fotini K; Rella, Chris W; Imhoff, Paul T

    2016-09-01

    Short-term (2-10h) variations of whole-landfill methane emissions have been observed in recent field studies using the tracer dilution method for emissions measurement. To investigate the cause of these variations, the tracer dilution method is applied using 1-min emissions measurements at Sandtown Landfill (Delaware, USA) for a 2-h measurement period. An atmospheric dispersion model is developed for this field test site, which is the first application of such modeling to evaluate atmospheric effects on gas plume transport from landfills. The model is used to examine three possible causes of observed temporal emissions variability: temporal variability of surface wind speed affecting whole landfill emissions, spatial variability of emissions due to local wind speed variations, and misaligned tracer gas release and methane emissions locations. At this site, atmospheric modeling indicates that variation in tracer dilution method emissions measurements may be caused by whole-landfill emissions variation with wind speed. Field data collected over the time period of the atmospheric model simulations corroborate this result: methane emissions are correlated with wind speed on the landfill surface with R(2)=0.51 for data 2.5m above ground, or R(2)=0.55 using data 85m above ground, with emissions increasing by up to a factor of 2 for an approximately 30% increase in wind speed. Although the atmospheric modeling and field test are conducted at a single landfill, the results suggest that wind-induced emissions may affect tracer dilution method emissions measurements at other landfills. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. A short-term high fat diet increases exposure to midazolam and omeprazole in healthy subjects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Achterbergh, Roos; Lammers, Laureen A.; van Nierop, Samuel; Klümpen, Heinz-Josef; Soeters, Maarten R.; Mathôt, Ron A. A.; Romijn, Johannes A.

    2016-01-01

    Knowledge of factors contributing to variation in drug metabolism is of vital importance to optimize drug treatment. This study assesses the effects of a short-term hypercaloric high fat diet on metabolism of five oral drugs, which are each specific for a single P450 isoform: midazolam (CYP3A4),

  2. Short-term power plant operation scheduling in thermal systems with long-term boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolter, H.

    1990-01-01

    For the first time, the modeling of long-term quantitative conditions within the short-term planning of the application of power stations is made via their shadow prices. It corresponds to a decomposition of the quantitative conditions by means of the method of the Langrange relaxation. The shadow prices determined by the planning for energy application regarding long- term quantitative conditions pass into the short-term planning for power station application and subsidize or rather punish the application of limited amounts as for as they are not claimed for sufficiently or excessively. The clear advantage of this modeling is that the short-term planning of power station application can deviate from the envisioned energy application regarding the total optimum, because the shadow prices contain all information about the cost effect of the energy shifts in the residual total period, which become necessary due to the deviations in the short-term period to be planned in the current short-term period. (orig./DG) [de

  3. Improving creativity performance by short-term meditation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background One form of meditation intervention, the integrative body-mind training (IBMT) has been shown to improve attention, reduce stress and change self-reports of mood. In this paper we examine whether short-term IBMT can improve performance related to creativity and determine the role that mood may play in such improvement. Methods Forty Chinese undergraduates were randomly assigned to short-term IBMT group or a relaxation training (RT) control group. Mood and creativity performance were assessed by the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking (TTCT) questionnaire respectively. Results As predicted, the results indicated that short-term (30 min per day for 7 days) IBMT improved creativity performance on the divergent thinking task, and yielded better emotional regulation than RT. In addition, cross-lagged analysis indicated that both positive and negative affect may influence creativity in IBMT group (not RT group). Conclusions Our results suggested that emotion-related creativity-promoting mechanism may be attributed to short-term meditation. PMID:24645871

  4. Trends and variation in monthly rainfall and temperature in Suriname

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raid, Nurmohamed

    2004-01-01

    As Surinam lies within the equatorial trough zone, climate is mainly influenced by the movement and intensity of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. Scientist predict that global climate change will directly effect the hydrological cycle such as rainfall and temperature, and extreme events such as a El Nino and La Nina. The aim of this study is to analyze historical changes in monthly rainfall and temperature and to predict future changes, with respect to climate change (doubling of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) by 2100) and variability. Linear extrapolation and five Global Circulations Models (GCMS) (HadCM2, ECHAM4, GFDL-TR, CSIRO2-EQ, CCSR-NIES) will be used. Results of GCMs have showed that under global climate change by 2100, the monthly rainfall is predicted to change with -82 to 66 mm during January and August, and -36 to 47 mm during September and November. The monthly temperature is predicted to increase with 1.3 to 4.3 C by 2100. El Nino events have showed that along the coastal zone and in the center of Surinam, most months (>50%) during the year are drier than normal (88 to 316 mm), while in the west part of Surinam, most months (>50%) are wetter than normal (110 to 220 mm). La Nina events have showed that over entire Surinam, most of the months are wetter than normal (19 to 122 mm), with respect to the minimum rainfall. It can be concluded that the changes in rainfall due to El Nino and La Nina events may have significant impacts on the design, planning and management of water resources systems in Surinam and should therefore be incorporated in future water resources planning. (Author)

  5. The Structure and Content of Long-Term and Short-Term Mate Preferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter K. Jonason

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This study addresses two limitations in the mate preferences literature. First, research all-too-often relies on single-item assessments of mate preferences precluding more advanced statistical techniques like factor analysis. Second, when factor analysis could be done, it exclusively has done for long-term mate preferences, at the exclusion of short-term mate preferences. In this study (N = 401, we subjected 20 items designed to measure short- and long-term mate preferences to both principle components (n = 200 and confirmatory factor analysis (n = 201. In the long-term context, we replicated previous findings that there are three different categories of preferences: physical attractiveness, interpersonal warmth, and social status. In the short-term context, physical attractiveness occupied two parts of the structure, social status dropped out, and interpersonal warmth remained. Across short- and long-term contexts, there were slight changes in what defined the shared dimensions (i.e., physical attractiveness and interpersonal warmth, suggesting prior work that applies the same inventory to each context might be flawed. We also replicated sex differences and similarities in mate preferences and correlates with sociosexuality and mate value. We adopt an evolutionary paradigm to understand our results.

  6. Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-08-01

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts

  7. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1993-08-06

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  8. Climate Change Impact on Rainfall: How will Threaten Wheat Yield?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tafoughalti, K.; El Faleh, E. M.; Moujahid, Y.; Ouargaga, F.

    2018-05-01

    Climate change has a significant impact on the environmental condition of the agricultural region. Meknes has an agrarian economy and wheat production is of paramount importance. As most arable area are under rainfed system, Meknes is one of the sensitive regions to rainfall variability and consequently to climate change. Therefore, the use of changes in rainfall is vital for detecting the influence of climate system on agricultural productivity. This article identifies rainfall temporal variability and its impact on wheat yields. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model. The analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that wheat yields are strongly correlated with rainfall of the period January to March. This investigation concluded that climate change is altering wheat yield and it is crucial to adept the necessary adaptation to challenge the risk.

  9. Short-Term Dosage Regimen for Stimulation-Induced Long-Lasting Desynchronization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanos Manos

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we computationally generate hypotheses for dose-finding studies in the context of desynchronizing neuromodulation techniques. Abnormally strong neuronal synchronization is a hallmark of several brain disorders. Coordinated Reset (CR stimulation is a spatio-temporally patterned stimulation technique that specifically aims at disrupting abnormal neuronal synchrony. In networks with spike-timing-dependent plasticity CR stimulation may ultimately cause an anti-kindling, i.e., an unlearning of abnormal synaptic connectivity and neuronal synchrony. This long-lasting desynchronization was theoretically predicted and verified in several pre-clinical and clinical studies. We have shown that CR stimulation with rapidly varying sequences (RVS robustly induces an anti-kindling at low intensities e.g., if the CR stimulation frequency (i.e., stimulus pattern repetition rate is in the range of the frequency of the neuronal oscillation. In contrast, CR stimulation with slowly varying sequences (SVS turned out to induce an anti-kindling more strongly, but less robustly with respect to variations of the CR stimulation frequency. Motivated by clinical constraints and inspired by the spacing principle of learning theory, in this computational study we propose a short-term dosage regimen that enables a robust anti-kindling effect of both RVS and SVS CR stimulation, also for those parameter values where RVS and SVS CR stimulation previously turned out to be ineffective. Intriguingly, for the vast majority of parameter values tested, spaced multishot CR stimulation with demand-controlled variation of stimulation frequency and intensity caused a robust and pronounced anti-kindling. In contrast, spaced CR stimulation with fixed stimulation parameters as well as singleshot CR stimulation of equal integral duration failed to improve the stimulation outcome. In the model network under consideration, our short-term dosage regimen enables to robustly induce

  10. Short-Term Dosage Regimen for Stimulation-Induced Long-Lasting Desynchronization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manos, Thanos; Zeitler, Magteld; Tass, Peter A

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we computationally generate hypotheses for dose-finding studies in the context of desynchronizing neuromodulation techniques. Abnormally strong neuronal synchronization is a hallmark of several brain disorders. Coordinated Reset (CR) stimulation is a spatio-temporally patterned stimulation technique that specifically aims at disrupting abnormal neuronal synchrony. In networks with spike-timing-dependent plasticity CR stimulation may ultimately cause an anti-kindling, i.e., an unlearning of abnormal synaptic connectivity and neuronal synchrony. This long-lasting desynchronization was theoretically predicted and verified in several pre-clinical and clinical studies. We have shown that CR stimulation with rapidly varying sequences (RVS) robustly induces an anti-kindling at low intensities e.g., if the CR stimulation frequency (i.e., stimulus pattern repetition rate) is in the range of the frequency of the neuronal oscillation. In contrast, CR stimulation with slowly varying sequences (SVS) turned out to induce an anti-kindling more strongly, but less robustly with respect to variations of the CR stimulation frequency. Motivated by clinical constraints and inspired by the spacing principle of learning theory, in this computational study we propose a short-term dosage regimen that enables a robust anti-kindling effect of both RVS and SVS CR stimulation, also for those parameter values where RVS and SVS CR stimulation previously turned out to be ineffective. Intriguingly, for the vast majority of parameter values tested, spaced multishot CR stimulation with demand-controlled variation of stimulation frequency and intensity caused a robust and pronounced anti-kindling. In contrast, spaced CR stimulation with fixed stimulation parameters as well as singleshot CR stimulation of equal integral duration failed to improve the stimulation outcome. In the model network under consideration, our short-term dosage regimen enables to robustly induce long-term

  11. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2009-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and…

  12. Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

    KAUST Repository

    Sagalgile, Archana P.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Srinivas, G.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Parekh, Anant; Attada, Raju; Singh, Prem

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

  13. Indian Summer Monsoon Sub-seasonal Low-Level Circulation Predictability and its Association with Rainfall in a Coupled Model

    KAUST Repository

    Sagalgile, Archana P.

    2017-10-26

    This study investigates predictability of the sub-seasonal Indian summer monsoon (ISM) circulation and its relation with rainfall variations in the coupled model National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). Hindcasts based on CFSv2 for the period of 1982–2009 are used for detailed analysis. Though the model is capable of predicting the seasonal ISM rainfall at long lead months, the predication skill of the model for sub-seasonal rainfall in general is poor for short and long lead except for September. Rainfall over the ISM region/Indian Subcontinent is highly correlated with the low-level jet (LLJ) or Somali jet both in the observations and the model. The model displays improved skill in predicting LLJ as compared to precipitation in seasonal mean and September, whereas the model skill is poor for June and August. Detailed analysis reveals that the model LLJ variations throughout the season are overdependent on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) unlike in the observations. This is mainly responsible for the model’s low skill in predicting LLJ especially in July and August, which is the primary cause for the poor rainfall skill. Though LLJ is weak in September, the model skill is reasonably good because of its ENSO dependency both in model and the observations and which is contributed to the seasonal mean skill. Thus, to improve the skill of seasonal mean monsoon forecast, it is essential to improve the skill of individual months/sub-seasonal circulation and rainfall skill.

  14. Attention Problems, Phonological Short-Term Memory, and Visuospatial Short-Term Memory: Differential Effects on Near- and Long-Term Scholastic Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarver, Dustin E.; Rapport, Mark D.; Kofler, Michael J.; Scanlan, Sean W.; Raiker, Joseph S.; Altro, Thomas A.; Bolden, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    The current study examined individual differences in children's phonological and visuospatial short-term memory as potential mediators of the relationship among attention problems and near- and long-term scholastic achievement. Nested structural equation models revealed that teacher-reported attention problems were associated negatively with…

  15. The time series variations of tritium concentration in precipitation and its relationships to the rainfall-inducing air mass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shimada, Jun

    1978-01-01

    The author measured the tritium concentration in precipitation of Tokyo for every ten-day period from August 1972 to May 1974. Judging from the daily synoptic weather chart, the rainfall-inducing air masses in Japan were classified into five types; polar maritime air mass (Pm), polar continental air mass (Pc), tropical maritime air mass (Tm), tropical continental air mass (Tc), and equatorial maritime air mass (Em). And the precipitation for every ten-day period sampled for tritium measurement were classified into these five types. Based on this classification, it is confirmed that there exist clear difference in the tritium concentration between the rainfall from the continental air mass and ones from the maritime air mass. It is characteristic that the tritium concentration in rainfall induced by equatorial maritime air mass such as typhoon in summer and early fall season is very low whereas the tritium concentration in rainfall and snowfall induced directly by the polar continental air mass in late winter season is very high. The regional difference of the tritium concentration in intermonthly precipitation could considerably be explained by this synoptic meteological classification of rainfall-inducing air mass. In spite of these regional difference of tritium concentration in precipitation, use of the tritium concentration of Tokyo as a representative value of Japan may be allowed because of the similarities of the changing pattern and annual mean tritium concentration. The time series variations of tritium concentration in precipitation of Tokyo from August 1972 to December 1977, Tsukuba from December 1976 to April 1978, and Nagaoka from April 1977 to March 1978 are listed. (author)

  16. Interpreting potential markers of storage and rehearsal: Implications for studies of verbal short-term memory and neuropsychological cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiaoli; Logie, Robert H; Jarrold, Christopher

    2016-08-01

    Neuropsychological studies of verbal short-term memory have often focused on two signature effects - phonological similarity and word length - the absence of which has been taken to indicate problems in phonological storage and rehearsal respectively. In the present study we present a possible alternative reading of such data, namely that the absence of these effects can follow as a consequence of an individual's poor level of recall. Data from a large normative sample of 251 adult participants were re-analyzed under the assumption that the size of phonological similarity and word length effects are proportional to an individual's overall level of recall. For both manipulations, when proportionalized effects were plotted against memory span, the same function fit the data in both auditory and visual presentation conditions. Furthermore, two additional sets of single-case data were broadly comparable to those that would be expected for an individual's level of verbal short-term memory performance albeit with some variation across tasks. These findings indicate that the absolute magnitude of phonological similarity and word length effects depends on overall levels of recall, and that these effects are necessarily eliminated at low levels of verbal short-term memory performance. This has implications for how one interprets any variation in the size of these effects, and raises serious questions about the causal direction of any relationship between impaired verbal short-term memory and the absence of phonological similarity or word length effects.

  17. Short-Term Reciprocity in Late Parent-Child Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leopold, Thomas; Raab, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    Long-term concepts of parent-child reciprocity assume that the amount of support given and received is only balanced in a generalized fashion over the life course. We argue that reciprocity in parent-child relationships also operates in the short term. Our analysis of short-term reciprocity focuses on concurrent exchange in its main upward and…

  18. Implementing a short-term loyalty program : case: Bosch Lawn & Garden and the Ventum short-term loyalty program

    OpenAIRE

    Logvinova, Veronika

    2015-01-01

    In 2015, one of the Bosch Home and Garden divisions, Bosch Lawn and Garden, has made a strategic decision to adopt a points-based short-term loyalty program called Ventum LG in the German supermarkets and petrol stations. It was decided that the base of this program will be completed Ventum PT short-term loyalty program which was managed by another division, Bosch Power Tools, and proved to be successful. This thesis aims to evaluate the worthiness of the Ventum LG loyalty program for Bosch L...

  19. An adaptive short-term prediction scheme for wind energy storage management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blonbou, Ruddy; Monjoly, Stephanie; Dorville, Jean-Francois

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → We develop a real time algorithm for grid-connected wind energy storage management. → The method aims to guarantee, with ±5% error margin, the power sent to the grid. → Dynamic scheduling of energy storage is based on short-term energy prediction. → Accurate predictions reduce the need in storage capacity. -- Abstract: Efficient forecasting scheme that includes some information on the likelihood of the forecast and based on a better knowledge of the wind variations characteristics along with their influence on power output variation is of key importance for the optimal integration of wind energy in island's power system. In the Guadeloupean archipelago (French West-Indies), with a total wind power capacity of 25 MW; wind energy can represent up to 5% of the instantaneous electricity production. At this level, wind energy contribution can be equivalent to the current network primary control reserve, which causes balancing difficult. The share of wind energy is due to grow even further since the objective is set to reach 118 MW by 2020. It is an absolute evidence for the network operator that due to security concerns of the electrical grid, the share of wind generation should not increase unless solutions are found to solve the prediction problem. The University of French West-Indies and Guyana has developed a short-term wind energy prediction scheme that uses artificial neural networks and adaptive learning procedures based on Bayesian approach and Gaussian approximation. This paper reports the results of the evaluation of the proposed approach; the improvement with respect to the simple persistent prediction model was globally good. A discussion on how such a tool combined with energy storage capacity could help to smooth the wind power variation and improve the wind energy penetration rate into island utility network is also proposed.

  20. Decay uncovered in nonverbal short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Tom; McKeown, Denis

    2014-02-01

    Decay theory posits that memory traces gradually fade away over the passage of time unless they are actively rehearsed. Much recent work exploring verbal short-term memory has challenged this theory, but there does appear to be evidence for trace decay in nonverbal auditory short-term memory. Numerous discrimination studies have reported a performance decline as the interval separating two tones is increased, consistent with a decay process. However, most of this tone comparison research can be explained in other ways, without reference to decay, and these alternative accounts were tested in the present study. In Experiment 1, signals were employed toward the end of extended retention intervals to ensure that listeners were alert to the presence and frequency content of the memoranda. In Experiment 2, a mask stimulus was employed in an attempt to distinguish between a highly detailed sensory trace and a longer-lasting short-term memory, and the distinctiveness of the stimuli was varied. Despite these precautions, slow-acting trace decay was observed. It therefore appears that the mere passage of time can lead to forgetting in some forms of short-term memory.

  1. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

  2. Short term variation in NTproBNP after lifestyle intervention in severe obesity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debora Fedele

    Full Text Available Natriuretic peptides are not only involved in cardiovascular adaption to various conditions, but also in metabolic diseases. We performed this study to assess the effect of a very short time of lifestyle inpatient intervention on NTproBNP values in normotensive subjects with severe obesity and normal cardiac function.We recruited 14 consecutive obese normotensive subjects with normal cardiac function who were aged 30 years and more and were referred to inpatient rehabilitation in an academic clinic over a two months period. They were examined at baseline and after a 3-weeks program including dietary intervention with hypocaloric diet and assisted personalized physical aerobic and anaerobic activities and compared to age, sex and BMI-matched control subjects under usual care.BMI significantly decreased (40.8 ±1.6 vs 42.3 ± 1.6 kg/m2, p <0.0001. Median reduction in body weight was 4.9 kg (interquartile range 2.4-5.2 kg. After diet and exercise-induced weight loss, plasma NTproBNP levels showed an almost two-fold increase, which was statistically significant (28.2 ± 12.3 vs 17.2 ± 13.2 ng/L, p = 0.01, and particularly relevant in the subgroup with NT-proBNP values below median values compared to those with higher values (p = 0.02. No significant variations were found in control subjects (18.0 ± 13.0 vs 16.5 ± 11.2 ng/L, p = 0.18. The lipid profile was significantly ameliorated, and both HbA1c and insulin levels showed a marginally non-significant decrease after treatment.An almost two-fold increase in NTproBNP levels was evident after a very short time period of lifestyle intervention in normotensive severe obese patients without cardiac disease. This finding might have clinical relevance, considering the role of NT-proBNP as risk factor of impaired glucose tolerance.

  3. Rainfall and runoff water quality of the Pang and Lambourn, tributaries of the River Thames, south-eastern England

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Neal

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The water quality of rainfall and runoff is described for two catchments of two tributaries of the River Thames, the Pang and Lambourn. Rainfall chemistry is variable and concentrations of most determinands decrease with increasing volume of catch probably due to 'wash out' processes. Two rainfall sites have been monitored, one for each catchment. The rainfall site on the Lambourn shows higher chemical concentrations than the one for the Pang which probably reflects higher amounts of local inputs from agricultural activity. Rainfall quality data at a long-term rainfall site on the Pang (UK National Air Quality Archive shows chemistries similar to that for the Lambourn site, but with some clear differences. Rainfall chemistries show considerable variation on an event-to-event basis. Average water quality concentrations and flow-weighted concentrations as well as fluxes vary across the sites, typically by about 30%. Stream chemistry is much less variable due to the main source of water coming from aquifer sources of high storage. The relationship between rainfall and runoff chemistry at the catchment outlet is described in terms of the relative proportions of atmospheric and within-catchment sources. Remarkably, in view of the quantity of agricultural and sewage inputs to the streams, the catchments appear to be retaining both P and N. Keywords: water quality, nitrate, ammonium, phosphorus, ammonia, nitrogen dioxide, pH, alkalinity, nutrients, trace metals, rainfall, river, Pang, Lambourn, LOCAR

  4. Rainfall Characteristics and Regionalization in Peninsular Malaysia Based on a High Resolution Gridded Data Set

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chee Loong Wong

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Daily gridded rainfall data over Peninsular Malaysia are delineated using an objective clustering algorithm, with the objective of classifying rainfall grids into groups of homogeneous regions based on the similarity of the rainfall annual cycles. It has been demonstrated that Peninsular Malaysia can be statistically delineated into eight distinct rainfall regions. This delineation is closely associated with the topographic and geographic characteristics. The variation of rainfall over the Peninsula is generally characterized by bimodal variations with two peaks, i.e., a primary peak occurring during the autumn transitional period and a secondary peak during the spring transitional period. The east coast zones, however, showed a single peak during the northeast monsoon (NEM. The influence of NEM is stronger compared to the southwest monsoon (SWM. Significantly increasing rainfall trends at 95% confidence level are not observed in all regions during the NEM, with exception of northwest zone (R1 and coastal band of west coast interior region (R3. During SWM, most areas have become drier over the last three decades. The study identifies higher variation of mean monthly rainfall over the east coast regions, but spatially, the rainfall is uniformly distributed. For the southwestern coast and west coast regions, a larger range of coefficients of variation is mostly obtained during the NEM, and to a smaller extent during the SWM. The inland region received least rainfall in February, but showed the largest spatial variation. The relationship between rainfall and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO was examined based on the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI. Although the concurrent relationships between rainfall in the different regions and ENSO are generally weak with negative correlations, the rainfall shows stronger positive correlation with preceding ENSO signals with a time lag of four to eight months.

  5. Censored rainfall modelling for estimation of fine-scale extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, David; Onof, Christian; Winter, Hugo; Bernardara, Pietro

    2018-01-01

    Reliable estimation of rainfall extremes is essential for drainage system design, flood mitigation, and risk quantification. However, traditional techniques lack physical realism and extrapolation can be highly uncertain. In this study, we improve the physical basis for short-duration extreme rainfall estimation by simulating the heavy portion of the rainfall record mechanistically using the Bartlett-Lewis rectangular pulse (BLRP) model. Mechanistic rainfall models have had a tendency to underestimate rainfall extremes at fine temporal scales. Despite this, the simple process representation of rectangular pulse models is appealing in the context of extreme rainfall estimation because it emulates the known phenomenology of rainfall generation. A censored approach to Bartlett-Lewis model calibration is proposed and performed for single-site rainfall from two gauges in the UK and Germany. Extreme rainfall estimation is performed for each gauge at the 5, 15, and 60 min resolutions, and considerations for censor selection discussed.

  6. Parent-Offspring Conflict over Short-Term Mating Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spyroulla Georgiou

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Individuals engage in short-term mating strategies that enable them to obtain fitness benefits from casual relationships. These benefits, however, count for less and cost more to their parents. On this basis three hypotheses are tested. First, parents and offspring are likely to disagree over short-term mating strategies, with the former considering these as less acceptable than the latter. Second, parents are more likely to disapprove of the short-term mating strategies of their daughters than of their sons. Finally, mothers and fathers are expected to agree on how much they disagree over the short-term mating strategies of their children. Evidence from a sample of 148 Greek-Cypriot families (140 mothers, 105 fathers, 119 daughters, 77 sons provides support for the first two hypotheses and partial support for the third hypothesis. The implications of these findings for understanding family dynamics are further discussed.

  7. Short-Term Intra-Subject Variation in Exhaled Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs in COPD Patients and Healthy Controls and Its Effect on Disease Classification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher Phillips

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Exhaled volatile organic compounds (VOCs are of interest for their potential to diagnose disease non-invasively. However, most breath VOC studies have analyzed single breath samples from an individual and assumed them to be wholly consistent representative of the person. This provided the motivation for an investigation of the variability of breath profiles when three breath samples are taken over a short time period (two minute intervals between samples for 118 stable patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD and 63 healthy controls and analyzed by gas chromatography and mass spectroscopy (GC/MS. The extent of the variation in VOC levels differed between COPD and healthy subjects and the patterns of variation differed for isoprene versus the bulk of other VOCs. In addition, machine learning approaches were applied to the breath data to establish whether these samples differed in their ability to discriminate COPD from healthy states and whether aggregation of multiple samples, into single data sets, could offer improved discrimination. The three breath samples gave similar classification accuracy to one another when evaluated separately (66.5% to 68.3% subjects classified correctly depending on the breath repetition used. Combining multiple breath samples into single data sets gave better discrimination (73.4% subjects classified correctly. Although accuracy is not sufficient for COPD diagnosis in a clinical setting, enhanced sampling and analysis may improve accuracy further. Variability in samples, and short-term effects of practice or exertion, need to be considered in any breath testing program to improve reliability and optimize discrimination.

  8. Circadian modulation of short-term memory in Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Lisa C; Roman, Gregg

    2009-01-01

    Endogenous biological clocks are widespread regulators of behavior and physiology, allowing for a more efficient allocation of efforts and resources over the course of a day. The extent that different processes are regulated by circadian oscillators, however, is not fully understood. We investigated the role of the circadian clock on short-term associative memory formation using a negatively reinforced olfactory-learning paradigm in Drosophila melanogaster. We found that memory formation was regulated in a circadian manner. The peak performance in short-term memory (STM) occurred during the early subjective night with a twofold performance amplitude after a single pairing of conditioned and unconditioned stimuli. This rhythm in memory is eliminated in both timeless and period mutants and is absent during constant light conditions. Circadian gating of sensory perception does not appear to underlie the rhythm in short-term memory as evidenced by the nonrhythmic shock avoidance and olfactory avoidance behaviors. Moreover, central brain oscillators appear to be responsible for the modulation as cryptochrome mutants, in which the antennal circadian oscillators are nonfunctional, demonstrate robust circadian rhythms in short-term memory. Together these data suggest that central, rather than peripheral, circadian oscillators modulate the formation of short-term associative memory and not the perception of the stimuli.

  9. Effect of Erosion on Productivity in Subtropical Red Soil Hilly Region: A Multi-Scale Spatio-Temporal Study by Simulated Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Zeng, Guangming; Nie, Xiaodong; Ma, Wenming; Yu, Wei; Guo, Wang; Zhang, Jiachao

    2013-01-01

    The effects of water erosion (including long-term historical erosion and single erosion event) on soil properties and productivity in different farming systems were investigated. A typical sloping cropland with homogeneous soil properties was designed in 2009 and then protected from other external disturbances except natural water erosion. In 2012, this cropland was divided in three equally sized blocks. Three treatments were performed on these blocks with different simulated rainfall intensities and farming methods: (1) high rainfall intensity (1.5 - 1.7 mm min−1), no-tillage operation; (2) low rainfall intensity (0.5 - 0.7 mm min−1), no-tillage operation; and (3) low rainfall intensity, tillage operation. All of the blocks were divided in five equally sized subplots along the slope to characterize the three-year effects of historical erosion quantitatively. Redundancy analysis showed that the effects of long-term historical erosion significantly caused most of the variations in soil productivity in no-tillage and low rainfall erosion intensity systems. The intensities of the simulated rainfall did not exhibit significant effects on soil productivity in no-tillage systems. By contrast, different farming operations induced a statistical difference in soil productivity at the same single erosion intensity. Soil organic carbon (SOC) was the major limiting variable that influenced soil productivity. Most explanations of long-term historical erosion for the variation in soil productivity arose from its sharing with SOC. SOC, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus were found as the regressors of soil productivity because of tillage operation. In general, this study provided strong evidence that single erosion event could also impose significant constraints on soil productivity by integrating with tillage operation, although single erosion is not the dominant effect relative to the long-term historical erosion. Our study demonstrated that an effective management of

  10. The Role of Short-term Consolidation in Memory Persistence

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy J. Ricker

    2015-01-01

    Short-term memory, often described as working memory, is one of the most fundamental information processing systems of the human brain. Short-term memory function is necessary for language, spatial navigation, problem solving, and many other daily activities. Given its importance to cognitive function, understanding the architecture of short-term memory is of crucial importance to understanding human behavior. Recent work from several laboratories investigating the entry of information into s...

  11. The interaction of short-term and long-term memory in phonetic category formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harnsberger, James D.

    2002-05-01

    This study examined the role that short-term memory capacity plays in the relationship between novel stimuli (e.g., non-native speech sounds, native nonsense words) and phonetic categories in long-term memory. Thirty native speakers of American English were administered five tests: categorial AXB discrimination using nasal consonants from Malayalam; categorial identification, also using Malayalam nasals, which measured the influence of phonetic categories in long-term memory; digit span; nonword span, a short-term memory measure mediated by phonetic categories in long-term memory; and paired-associate word learning (word-word and word-nonword pairs). The results showed that almost all measures were significantly correlated with one another. The strongest predictor for the discrimination and word-nonword learning results was nonword (r=+0.62) and digit span (r=+0.51), respectively. When the identification test results were partialed out, only nonword span significantly correlated with discrimination. The results show a strong influence of short-term memory capacity on the encoding of phonetic detail within phonetic categories and suggest that long-term memory representations regulate the capacity of short-term memory to preserve information for subsequent encoding. The results of this study will also be discussed with regards to resolving the tension between episodic and abstract models of phonetic category structure.

  12. Semantic and phonological contributions to short-term repetition and long-term cued sentence recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meltzer, Jed A; Rose, Nathan S; Deschamps, Tiffany; Leigh, Rosie C; Panamsky, Lilia; Silberberg, Alexandra; Madani, Noushin; Links, Kira A

    2016-02-01

    The function of verbal short-term memory is supported not only by the phonological loop, but also by semantic resources that may operate on both short and long time scales. Elucidation of the neural underpinnings of these mechanisms requires effective behavioral manipulations that can selectively engage them. We developed a novel cued sentence recall paradigm to assess the effects of two factors on sentence recall accuracy at short-term and long-term stages. Participants initially repeated auditory sentences immediately following a 14-s retention period. After this task was complete, long-term memory for each sentence was probed by a two-word recall cue. The sentences were either concrete (high imageability) or abstract (low imageability), and the initial 14-s retention period was filled with either an undemanding finger-tapping task or a more engaging articulatory suppression task (Exp. 1, counting backward by threes; Exp. 2, repeating a four-syllable nonword). Recall was always better for the concrete sentences. Articulatory suppression reduced accuracy in short-term recall, especially for abstract sentences, but the sentences initially recalled following articulatory suppression were retained better at the subsequent cued-recall test, suggesting that the engagement of semantic mechanisms for short-term retention promoted encoding of the sentence meaning into long-term memory. These results provide a basis for using sentence imageability and subsequent memory performance as probes of semantic engagement in short-term memory for sentences.

  13. Modeling rainfall-runoff relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2013-08-01

    The traditional hydrologic time series approaches are used for modeling, simulating and forecasting conditional mean of hydrologic variables but neglect their time varying variance or the second order moment. This paper introduces the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) modeling approach to show how the variance-covariance relationship between hydrologic variables varies in time. These approaches are also useful to estimate the dynamic conditional correlation between hydrologic variables. To illustrate the novelty and usefulness of MGARCH models in hydrology, two major types of MGARCH models, the bivariate diagonal VECH and constant conditional correlation (CCC) models are applied to show the variance-covariance structure and cdynamic correlation in a rainfall-runoff process. The bivariate diagonal VECH-GARCH(1,1) and CCC-GARCH(1,1) models indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance-covariance matrix of the rainfall-runoff process. The conditional variance of rainfall appears to have a stronger persistency, especially long-run persistency, than the conditional variance of streamflow which shows a short-lived drastic increasing pattern and a stronger short-run persistency. The conditional covariance and conditional correlation coefficients have different features for each bivariate rainfall-runoff process with different degrees of stationarity and dynamic nonlinearity. The spatial and temporal pattern of variance-covariance features may reflect the signature of different physical and hydrological variables such as drainage area, topography, soil moisture and ground water fluctuations on the strength, stationarity and nonlinearity of the conditional variance-covariance for a rainfall-runoff process.

  14. Potential of deterministic and geostatistical rainfall interpolation under high rainfall variability and dry spells: case of Kenya's Central Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisaka, M. Oscar; Mucheru-Muna, M.; Ngetich, F. K.; Mugwe, J.; Mugendi, D.; Mairura, F.; Shisanya, C.; Makokha, G. L.

    2016-04-01

    digital elevation model in ArcGIS environment. Validation of the selected interpolation methods were based on goodness of fit between gauged (observed) and generated rainfall derived from residual errors statistics, coefficient of determination (R 2), mean absolute errors (MAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) statistics. Analyses showed 90 % chance of below cropping-threshold rainfall (500 mm) exceeding 258.1 mm during short rains in Embu for 1 year return period. Rainfall variability was found to be high in seasonal amounts (e.g. coefficient of variation (CV) = 0.56, 0.47, 0.59) and in number of rainy days (e.g. CV = 0.88, 0.53) in Machang'a and Kiritiri, respectively. Monthly rainfall variability was found to be equally high during April and November (e.g. CV = 0.48, 0.49 and 0.76) with high probabilities (0.67) of droughts exceeding 15 days in Machang'a. Dry spell probabilities within growing months were high, e.g. 81 and 60 % in Machang'a and Embu, respectively. Kriging interpolation method emerged as the most appropriate geostatistical interpolation technique suitable for spatial rainfall maps generation for the study region.

  15. Short Term Patterns of Landslides Causing Death in Latin America and the Caribbean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepulveda, S. A.; Petley, D. N.

    2015-12-01

    Among natural hazards, landslides represent a significant source of loss of life in mountainous terrains. Many regions of Latin America and the Caribbean are prone to landslide activity, due to strong topographic relief, high tectonic uplift rates, seismicity and/or climate. Further, vulnerable populations are often concentrated in deep valleys or mountain foothills susceptible to catastrophic landslides, with vulnerability further increased by dense urbanization and precarious settlements in some large cities. While historic extremely catastrophic events such as the 1999 Vargas flows in Venezuela or the 1970 Huascaran rock avalanche in Peru are commonly cited to characterize landslide hazards in this region, less known is the landslide activity in periods without such large disasters. This study assesses the occurrence of fatal landslides in Latin America and the Caribbean between 2004 and 2013. Over this time period we recorded 611 landslides that caused 11,631 deaths in 25 countries, mostly as a result of rainfall triggers. The countries with the highest number of fatal landslides are Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, Guatemala, Peru and Haiti. The highest death toll for a single event was ca.3000. The dataset has not captured a strong El Niño event or large earthquakes in landslide prone areas, thus the analysis is indicative of short term rather than long term spatial and temporal patterns. Results show that at continental scale, the spatial distribution of landslides in the 2004-2013 period correlates well with relief, precipitation and population density, while the temporal distribution reflects the regional annual rainfall patterns. In urban areas, the presence of informal settlements has a big impact on the number of fatalities, while at national level weaker correlations with gross income, human development and corruption indices can be found. This work was funded by the Durham International Fellowships for Research and Enterprise and Fondecyt project 1140317.

  16. Short-term and long-term sick-leave in Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blank, N; Diderichsen, Finn

    1995-01-01

    The primary aim of the study was to analyse similarities and differences between repeated spells of short-term sick-leave (more than 3 spells of less than 7 days' duration in a 12-month period) and long-term absence through sickness (at least 1 spell of more than 59 days' duration in a 12-month p...

  17. Predicting watershed acidification under alternate rainfall conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntington, T.G.

    1996-01-01

    The effect of alternate rainfall scenarios on acidification of a forested watershed subjected to chronic acidic deposition was assessed using the model of acidification of groundwater in catchments (MAGIC). The model was calibrated at the Panola Mountain Research Watershed, near Atlanta, Georgia, USA using measured soil properties, wet and dry deposition, and modeled hydrologic routing. Model forecast simulations were evaluated to compare alternate temporal averaging of rainfall inputs and variations in rainfall amount and seasonal distribution. Soil water alkalinity was predicted to decrease to substantially lower concentrations under lower rainfall compared with current or higher rainfall conditions. Soil water alkalinity was also predicted to decrease to lower levels when the majority of rainfall occurred during the growing season compared with other rainfall distributions. Changes in rainfall distribution that result in decreases in net soil water flux will temporarily delay acidification. Ultimately, however, decreased soilwater flux will result in larger increases in soil-adsorbed sulfur and soil-water sulfate concentrations and decreases in alkalinity when compared to higher water flux conditions. Potential climate change resulting in significant changes in rainfall amounts, seasonal distributions of rainfall, or evapotranspiration will change net soil water flux and, consequently, will affect the dynamics of the acidification response to continued sulfate loading. 29 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  18. Rainfall Climatology over Asir Region, Saudi Arabia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif, H.; Furl, C.; Al-Zahrani, M.

    2012-04-01

    Arid and semi-arid lands occupy about one-third of the land surface of the earth and support about one-fifth of the world population. The Asir area in Saudi Arabia is an example of these areas faced with the problem of maintaining sustainable water resources. This problem is exacerbated by the high levels of population growth, land use changes, increasing water demand, and climate variability. In this study, the characteristics of decade-scale variations in precipitation are examined in more detail for Asir region. The spatio-temporal distributions of rainfall over the region are analyzed. The objectives are to identify the sensitivity, magnitude, and range of changes in annual and seasonal evapotranspiration resulting from observed decade-scale precipitation variations. An additional objective is to characterize orographic controls on the space-time variability of rainfall. The rainfall data is obtained from more than 30 rain gauges spread over the region.

  19. Rainfall simulation for environmental application

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shriner, D.S.; Abner, C.H.; Mann, L.K.

    1977-08-01

    Rain simulation systems have been designed for field and greenhouse studies which have the capability of reproducing the physical and chemical characteristics of natural rainfall. The systems permit the simulation of variations in rainfall and droplet size similar to that of natural precipitation. The systems are completely automatic and programmable, allowing unattended operation for periods of up to one week, and have been used to expose not only vegetation but also soils and engineering materials, making them versatile tools for studies involving simulated precipitation.

  20. Short-term Consumer Benefits of Dynamic Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Dupont, Benjamin; De Jonghe, Cedric; Kessels, Kris; Belmans, Ronnie

    2011-01-01

    Consumer benefits of dynamic pricing depend on a variety of factors. Consumer characteristics and climatic circumstances widely differ, which forces a regional comparison. This paper presents a general overview of demand response programs and focuses on the short-term benefits of dynamic pricing for an average Flemish residential consumer. It reaches a methodology to develop a cost reflective dynamic pricing program and to estimate short-term bill savings. Participating in a dynamic pricing p...

  1. Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraedrich, K.

    2014-12-01

    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

  2. Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reason, C. J. C.

    2018-04-01

    Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

  3. Interannual variation in nitrous oxide emissions from perennial ryegrass/white clover grassland used for dairy production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burchill, William; Li, Dejun; Lanigan, Gary J; Williams, Micheal; Humphreys, James

    2014-10-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions are subject to intra- and interannual variation due to changes in weather and management. This creates significant uncertainties when quantifying estimates of annual N2 O emissions from grazed grasslands. Despite these uncertainties, the majority of studies are short-term in nature (Nitrous oxide emissions were measured from fertilized and grazed perennial ryegrass/white clover grassland (WC) and from perennial ryegrass plots that were not grazed and did not receive N input (GB), over 4 years from 2008 to 2012 in Ireland (52°51'N, 08°21'W). The annual N2 O-N emissions (kg ha(-1); mean ± SE) ranged from 4.4 ± 0.2 to 34.4 ± 5.5 from WC and from 1.7 ± 0.8 to 6.3 ± 1.2 from GB. Interannual variation in N2 O emissions was attributed to differences in annual rainfall, monthly (December) soil temperatures and variation in N input. Such substantial interannual variation in N2 O emissions highlights the need for long-term studies of emissions from managed pastoral systems. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Madagascar corals reveal a multidecadal signature of rainfall and river runoff since 1708

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. Grove

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST influence rainfall variability on multidecadal and interdecadal timescales in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO. Rainfall variations in locations such as Australia and North America are therefore linked to phase changes in the PDO. Furthermore, studies have suggested teleconnections exist between the western Indian Ocean and Pacific Decadal Variability (PDV, similar to those observed on interannual timescales related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO. However, as instrumental records of rainfall are too short and sparse to confidently assess multidecadal climatic teleconnections, here we present four coral climate archives from Madagascar spanning up to the past 300 yr (1708–2008 to assess such decadal variability. Using spectral luminescence scanning to reconstruct past changes in river runoff, we identify significant multidecadal and interdecadal frequencies in the coral records, which before 1900 are coherent with Asian-based PDO reconstructions. This multidecadal relationship with the Asian-based PDO reconstructions points to an unidentified teleconnection mechanism that affects Madagascar rainfall/runoff, most likely triggered by multidecadal changes in North Pacific SST, influencing the Asian Monsoon circulation. In the 20th century we decouple human deforestation effects from rainfall-induced soil erosion by pairing luminescence with coral geochemistry. Positive PDO phases are associated with increased Indian Ocean temperatures and runoff/rainfall in eastern Madagascar, while precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia declines. Consequently, the negative PDO phase that started in 1998 may contribute to reduced rainfall over eastern Madagascar and increased precipitation in southern Africa and eastern Australia. We conclude that multidecadal rainfall variability in Madagascar and the western Indian Ocean needs to be

  5. Musical and Verbal Memory in Alzheimer's Disease: A Study of Long-Term and Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menard, Marie-Claude; Belleville, Sylvie

    2009-01-01

    Musical memory was tested in Alzheimer patients and in healthy older adults using long-term and short-term memory tasks. Long-term memory (LTM) was tested with a recognition procedure using unfamiliar melodies. Short-term memory (STM) was evaluated with same/different judgment tasks on short series of notes. Musical memory was compared to verbal…

  6. A least squares approach for efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lasse Hjuler; Capolei, Andrea; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

    2017-01-01

    The uncertainties related to long-term forecasts of oil prices impose significant financial risk on ventures of oil production. To minimize risk, oil companies are inclined to maximize profit over short-term horizons ranging from months to a few years. In contrast, conventional production...... optimization maximizes long-term profits over horizons that span more than a decade. To address this challenge, the oil literature has introduced short-term versus long-term optimization. Ideally, this problem is solved by a posteriori multi-objective optimization methods that generate an approximation...... the balance between the objectives, leaving an unfulfilled potential to increase profits. To promote efficient and reliable short-term versus long-term optimization, this paper introduces a natural way to characterize desirable Pareto points and proposes a novel least squares (LS) method. Unlike hierarchical...

  7. ANALYSIS OF THE STATISTICAL BEHAVIOUR OF DAILY MAXIMUM AND MONTHLY AVERAGE RAINFALL ALONG WITH RAINY DAYS VARIATION IN SYLHET, BANGLADESH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. J. HASAN

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate, one of the major controlling factors for well-being of the inhabitants in the world, has been changing in accordance with the natural forcing and manmade activities. Bangladesh, the most densely populated countries in the world is under threat due to climate change caused by excessive use or abuse of ecology and natural resources. This study checks the rainfall patterns and their associated changes in the north-eastern part of Bangladesh mainly Sylhet city through statistical analysis of daily rainfall data during the period of 1957 - 2006. It has been observed that a good correlation exists between the monthly mean and daily maximum rainfall. A linear regression analysis of the data is found to be significant for all the months. Some key statistical parameters like the mean values of Coefficient of Variability (CV, Relative Variability (RV and Percentage Inter-annual Variability (PIV have been studied and found to be at variance. Monthly, yearly and seasonal variation of rainy days also analysed to check for any significant changes.

  8. Neighbourhood Characteristics and Long-Term Air Pollution Levels Modify the Association between the Short-Term Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations and All-Cause Mortality in Paris.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deguen, Séverine; Petit, Claire; Delbarre, Angélique; Kihal, Wahida; Padilla, Cindy; Benmarhnia, Tarik; Lapostolle, Annabelle; Chauvin, Pierre; Zmirou-Navier, Denis

    2015-01-01

    While a great number of papers have been published on the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality, few have tried to assess whether this association varies according to the neighbourhood socioeconomic level and long-term ambient air concentrations measured at the place of residence. We explored the effect modification of 1) socioeconomic status, 2) long-term NO2 ambient air concentrations, and 3) both combined, on the association between short-term exposure to NO2 and all-cause mortality in Paris (France). A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of short-term NO2 variations on mortality, based on 79,107 deaths having occurred among subjects aged over 35 years, from 2004 to 2009, in the city of Paris. Simple and double interactions were statistically tested in order to analyse effect modification by neighbourhood characteristics on the association between mortality and short-term NO2 exposure. The data was estimated at the census block scale (n=866). The mean of the NO2 concentrations during the five days prior to deaths were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality: overall Excess Risk (ER) was 0.94% (95%CI=[0.08;1.80]. A higher risk was revealed for subjects living in the most deprived census blocks in comparison with higher socioeconomic level areas (ER=3.14% (95%CI=[1.41-4.90], ppollution episodes. There is also an indication that people living in these disadvantaged census blocks might experience even higher risk following short-term air pollution episodes, when they are also chronically exposed to higher NO2 levels.

  9. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the Future of Rainfall Estimation from Space

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakar, Ramesh; Adler, Robert; Smith, Eric; Starr, David OC. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Tropical rainfall is important in the hydrological cycle and to the lives and welfare of humans. Three-fourths of the energy that drives the atmospheric wind circulation comes from the latent heat released by tropical precipitation. Recognizing the importance of rain in the tropics, NASA for the U.S.A. and NASDA for Japan have partnered in the design, construction and flight of a satellite mission to measure tropical rainfall and calculate the associated latent heat release. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite was launched on November 27, 1997, and data from all the instruments first became available approximately 30 days after launch. Since then, much progress has been made in the calibration of the sensors, the improvement of the rainfall algorithms and applications of these results to areas such as Data Assimilation and model initialization. TRMM has reduced the uncertainty of climatological rainfall in tropics by over a factor of two, therefore establishing a standard for comparison with previous data sets and climatologies. It has documented the diurnal variation of precipitation over the oceans, showing a distinct early morning peak and this satellite mission has shown the utility of precipitation information for the improvement of numerical weather forecasts and climate modeling. This paper discusses some promising applications using TRMM data and introduces a measurement concept being discussed by NASA/NASDA and ESA for the future of rainfall estimation from space.

  10. Do Short-Term Managerial Objectives Lead to Under- or Over-Investment in Long-Term Projects

    OpenAIRE

    Lucian Arye Bebchuk; Lars A. Stole

    1994-01-01

    This paper studies managerial decisions about investment in long-run projects in the presence of imperfect information (the market knows less about such investments than the firm's managers) and short-term managerial objectives (the managers are concerned about the short-term stock price as well as the long-term stock price). Prior work has suggested that imperfect information and short-term managerial objectives induce managers to underinvest in long-run projects. We show that either underin...

  11. Analysis of rainfall distribution in Kelantan river basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che Ros, Faizah; Tosaka, Hiroyuki

    2018-03-01

    Using rainfall gauge on its own as input carries great uncertainties regarding runoff estimation, especially when the area is large and the rainfall is measured and recorded at irregular spaced gauging stations. Hence spatial interpolation is the key to obtain continuous and orderly rainfall distribution at unknown points to be the input to the rainfall runoff processes for distributed and semi-distributed numerical modelling. It is crucial to study and predict the behaviour of rainfall and river runoff to reduce flood damages of the affected area along the Kelantan river. Thus, a good knowledge on rainfall distribution is essential in early flood prediction studies. Forty six rainfall stations and their daily time-series were used to interpolate gridded rainfall surfaces using inverse-distance weighting (IDW), inverse-distance and elevation weighting (IDEW) methods and average rainfall distribution. Sensitivity analysis for distance and elevation parameters were conducted to see the variation produced. The accuracy of these interpolated datasets was examined using cross-validation assessment.

  12. Sleep Quality, Short-Term and Long-Term CPAP Adherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somiah, Manya; Taxin, Zachary; Keating, Joseph; Mooney, Anne M.; Norman, Robert G.; Rapoport, David M.; Ayappa, Indu

    2012-01-01

    Study Objectives: Adherence to CPAP therapy is low in patients with obstructive sleep apnea/hypopnea syndrome (OSAHS). The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the utility of measures of sleep architecture and sleep continuity on the CPAP titration study as predictors of both short- and long-term CPAP adherence. Methods: 93 patients with OSAHS (RDI 42.8 ± 34.3/h) underwent in-laboratory diagnostic polysomnography, CPAP titration, and follow-up polysomnography (NPSG) on CPAP. Adherence to CPAP was objectively monitored. Short-term (ST) CPAP adherence was averaged over 14 days immediately following the titration study. Long-term (LT) CPAP adherence was obtained in 56/93 patients after approximately 2 months of CPAP use. Patients were grouped into CPAP adherence groups for ST ( 4 h) and LT adherence ( 4 h). Sleep architecture, sleep disordered breathing (SDB) indices, and daytime outcome variables from the diagnostic and titration NPSGs were compared between CPAP adherence groups. Results: There was a significant relationship between ST and LT CPAP adherence (r = 0.81, p CPAP adherence groups had significantly lower %N2 and greater %REM on the titration NPSG. A model combining change in sleep efficiency and change in sleep continuity between the diagnostic and titration NPSGs predicted 17% of the variance in LT adherence (p = 0.006). Conclusions: These findings demonstrate that characteristics of sleep architecture, even on the titration NPSG, may predict some of the variance in CPAP adherence. Better sleep quality on the titration night was related to better CPAP adherence, suggesting that interventions to improve sleep on/prior to the CPAP titration study might be used as a therapeutic intervention to improve CPAP adherence. Citation: Somiah M; Taxin Z; Keating J; Mooney AM; Norman RG; Rapoport DM; Ayappa I. Sleep quality, short-term and long-term CPAP adherence. J Clin Sleep Med 2012;8(5):489-500. PMID:23066359

  13. Assessing the associative deficit of older adults in long-term and short-term/working memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Tina; Naveh-Benjamin, Moshe

    2012-09-01

    Older adults exhibit a deficit in associative long-term memory relative to younger adults. However, the literature is inconclusive regarding whether this deficit is attenuated in short-term/working memory. To elucidate the issue, three experiments assessed younger and older adults' item and interitem associative memory and the effects of several variables that might potentially contribute to the inconsistent pattern of results in previous studies. In Experiment 1, participants were tested on item and associative recognition memory with both long-term and short-term retention intervals in a single, continuous recognition paradigm. There was an associative deficit for older adults in the short-term and long-term intervals. Using only short-term intervals, Experiment 2 utilized mixed and blocked test designs to examine the effect of test event salience. Blocking the test did not attenuate the age-related associative deficit seen in the mixed test blocks. Finally, an age-related associative deficit was found in Experiment 3, under both sequential and simultaneous presentation conditions. Even while accounting for some methodological issues, the associative deficit of older adults is evident in short-term/working memory.

  14. Identification of homogeneous rainfall regimes in parts of Western ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to understand the environmental parameters pertaining to the sustenance of the region. Rainfall is one such parameter governing the hydrological processes crucial to agriculture planning, afforesta- tion and eco-system management. Therefore, it is essential to understand rainfall distribution and its variation in relevance to ...

  15. Rainfall intensity effects on crusting and mode of seedling ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Predicted changes in rainfall intensity due to climate change are likely to influence key soil health parameters, especially structural attributes and crop growth. Variations in rainfall intensity will impact crop ... and growth in these soils. Keywords: climate change, crusting, mineralogy, penetration resistance, soil organic matter ...

  16. Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jury, Mark R.

    2018-05-01

    This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda's rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May-October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ˜3 and 6 years over 1950-2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec-May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May-Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May-Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.

  17. Long-Term Evaluation of Ocean Tidal Variation Models of Polar Motion and UT1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karbon, Maria; Balidakis, Kyriakos; Belda, Santiago; Nilsson, Tobias; Hagedoorn, Jan; Schuh, Harald

    2018-04-01

    Recent improvements in the development of VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) and other space geodetic techniques such as the global navigation satellite systems (GNSS) require very precise a-priori information of short-period (daily and sub-daily) Earth rotation variations. One significant contribution to Earth rotation is caused by the diurnal and semi-diurnal ocean tides. Within this work, we developed a new model for the short-period ocean tidal variations in Earth rotation, where the ocean tidal angular momentum model and the Earth rotation variation have been setup jointly. Besides the model of the short-period variation of the Earth's rotation parameters (ERP), based on the empirical ocean tide model EOT11a, we developed also ERP models, that are based on the hydrodynamic ocean tide models FES2012 and HAMTIDE. Furthermore, we have assessed the effect of uncertainties in the elastic Earth model on the resulting ERP models. Our proposed alternative ERP model to the IERS 2010 conventional model considers the elastic model PREM and 260 partial tides. The choice of the ocean tide model and the determination of the tidal velocities have been identified as the main uncertainties. However, in the VLBI analysis all models perform on the same level of accuracy. From these findings, we conclude that the models presented here, which are based on a re-examined theoretical description and long-term satellite altimetry observation only, are an alternative for the IERS conventional model but do not improve the geodetic results.

  18. The pedagogy of Short-Term Study-Abroad Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jude Gonsalvez

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on establishing guidelines on the pedagogy of short term study abroad programs. This study follows 33 students who participated in a short-term study-abroad program to India with the researcher from 2006 through 2011. The study relies heavily on the student reflections and expressions as they experienced them. It is qualitative in nature. Focus groups were the main method of data collection, where participants were invited to reflect, express, and share their experiences with one another. This provided an opportunity for the participants to come together, relive their experiences, and help provide information as to how and what type of an influence this short-term study-abroad program provided.

  19. Long range prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    to the performance of summer monsoon rain- fall over India. Variations in the total amount of rainfall have strong socio-economic consequences. Parthasarathy et al .... deviation of rainfall for training period 1961–1995, are 838.4 mm and 89.3 mm respectively. The period. 1949–1960 and 1996–2005 is used for independent.

  20. Genetic deletion of melanin-concentrating hormone neurons impairs hippocampal short-term synaptic plasticity and hippocampal-dependent forms of short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Barillier, Léa; Léger, Lucienne; Luppi, Pierre-Hervé; Fort, Patrice; Malleret, Gaël; Salin, Paul-Antoine

    2015-11-01

    The cognitive role of melanin-concentrating hormone (MCH) neurons, a neuronal population located in the mammalian postero-lateral hypothalamus sending projections to all cortical areas, remains poorly understood. Mainly activated during paradoxical sleep (PS), MCH neurons have been implicated in sleep regulation. The genetic deletion of the only known MCH receptor in rodent leads to an impairment of hippocampal dependent forms of memory and to an alteration of hippocampal long-term synaptic plasticity. By using MCH/ataxin3 mice, a genetic model characterized by a selective deletion of MCH neurons in the adult, we investigated the role of MCH neurons in hippocampal synaptic plasticity and hippocampal-dependent forms of memory. MCH/ataxin3 mice exhibited a deficit in the early part of both long-term potentiation and depression in the CA1 area of the hippocampus. Post-tetanic potentiation (PTP) was diminished while synaptic depression induced by repetitive stimulation was enhanced suggesting an alteration of pre-synaptic forms of short-term plasticity in these mice. Behaviorally, MCH/ataxin3 mice spent more time and showed a higher level of hesitation as compared to their controls in performing a short-term memory T-maze task, displayed retardation in acquiring a reference memory task in a Morris water maze, and showed a habituation deficit in an open field task. Deletion of MCH neurons could thus alter spatial short-term memory by impairing short-term plasticity in the hippocampus. Altogether, these findings could provide a cellular mechanism by which PS may facilitate memory encoding. Via MCH neuron activation, PS could prepare the day's learning by increasing and modulating short-term synaptic plasticity in the hippocampus. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Relationship between short and long term radon measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martinez, T.; Ramirez, D.; Navarrete, M.; Cabrera, L.; Ramirez, A.; Gonzalez, P.

    2000-01-01

    In this work the radon group of the Faculty of Chemistry at the National University of Mexico presents the results obtained in the establishment of a relation between the short and long term radon measures made with passive electret detectors E-PERM type LLT and HST. The measures were carried out inside single family dwellings (open house condition) located in the southeast of Mexico City (in Xochimilco) during the four seasons of the year 1997. A correlation was established between the short term measures (five days) and those of a long term for every season as well as an annual average, with an equation that relates them. The objective and advantage of this correlation are that with a short term measure it is possible to predict the annual mean radon concentration, that represents a saving of human and economic resources. (author)

  2. Impact of rainfall patterns and frequency on the export of pesticides and heavy-metals from agricultural soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meite, Fatima; Alvarez-Zaldívar, Pablo; Crochet, Alexandre; Wiegert, Charline; Payraudeau, Sylvain; Imfeld, Gwenaël

    2018-03-01

    The combined influence of soil characteristics, pollutant aging and rainfall patterns on the export of pollutants from topsoils is poorly understood. We used laboratory experiments and parsimonious modeling to evaluate the impact of rainfall characteristics on the ponding and the leaching of a pollutant mixture from topsoils. The mixture included the fungicide metalaxyl, the herbicide S-metolachlor, as well as copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn). Four rainfall patterns, which differed in their durations and intensities, were applied twice successively with a 7days interval on each soil type. To evaluate the influence of soil type and aging, experiments included crop and vineyard soils and two stages of pollutant aging (0 and 10days). The global export of pollutants was significantly controlled by the rainfall duration and frequency (Pexport of metalaxyl (44.5±21.5% of the initial mass spiked in the soils), S-metolachlor (8.1±3.1%) and Cu (3.1±0.3%). Soil compaction caused by the first rainfall reduced in the second rainfall the leaching of remaining metalaxyl, S-metolachlor, Cu and Zn by 2.4-, 2.9-, 30- and 50-fold, respectively. In contrast, soil characteristics and aging had less influence on pollutant mass export. The soil type significantly influenced the leaching of Zn, while short-term aging impacted Cu leaching. Our results suggest that rainfall characteristics predominantly control export patterns of metalaxyl and S-metolachlor, in particular when the aging period is short. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for more systematic evaluation of the dissolved pollutant ponding/leaching partitioning and the export of pollutant mixtures from different soil types in relation to rainfall patterns. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Impact of short-term severe accident management actions in a long-term perspective. Final Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-03-01

    The present systems for severe accident management are focused on mitigating the consequences of special severe accident phenomena and to reach a safe plant state. However, in the development of strategies and procedures for severe accident management, it is also important to consider the long-term perspective of accident management and especially to secure the safe state of the plant. The main reason for this is that certain short-term actions have an impact on the long-term scenario. Both positive and negative effects from short-term actions on the accident management in the long-term perspective have been included in this paper. Short-term actions are accident management measures taken within about 24 hours after the initiating event. The purpose of short-term actions is to reach a stable status of the plant. The main goal in the long-term perspective is to maintain the reactor in a stable state and prevent uncontrolled releases of activity. The purpose of this short Technical Note, deliberately limited in scope, is to draw attention to potential long-term problems, important to utilities and regulatory authorities, arising from the way a severe accident would be managed during the first hours. Its objective is to encourage discussions on the safest - and maybe also most economical - way to manage a severe accident in the long term by not making the situation worse through inappropriate short-term actions, and on the identification of short-term actions likely to make long-term management easier and safer. The Note is intended as a contribution to the knowledge base put at the disposal of Member countries through international collaboration. The scope of the work has been limited to a literature search. Useful further activities have been identified. However, there is no proposal, at this stage, for more detailed work to be undertaken under the auspices of the CSNI. Plant-specific applications would need to be developed by utilities

  4. Ordered short-term memory differs in signers and speakers: Implications for models of short-term memory

    OpenAIRE

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers (Boutla, Supalla, Newport, & Bavelier, 2004). Here, we test the hypothesis that this population difference reflects differences in the way speakers and signers maintain temporal order information in short-te...

  5. Neural processing of short-term recurrence in songbird vocal communication.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriël J L Beckers

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Many situations involving animal communication are dominated by recurring, stereotyped signals. How do receivers optimally distinguish between frequently recurring signals and novel ones? Cortical auditory systems are known to be pre-attentively sensitive to short-term delivery statistics of artificial stimuli, but it is unknown if this phenomenon extends to the level of behaviorally relevant delivery patterns, such as those used during communication. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We recorded and analyzed complete auditory scenes of spontaneously communicating zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata pairs over a week-long period, and show that they can produce tens of thousands of short-range contact calls per day. Individual calls recur at time scales (median interval 1.5 s matching those at which mammalian sensory systems are sensitive to recent stimulus history. Next, we presented to anesthetized birds sequences of frequently recurring calls interspersed with rare ones, and recorded, in parallel, action and local field potential responses in the medio-caudal auditory forebrain at 32 unique sites. Variation in call recurrence rate over natural ranges leads to widespread and significant modulation in strength of neural responses. Such modulation is highly call-specific in secondary auditory areas, but not in the main thalamo-recipient, primary auditory area. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results support the hypothesis that pre-attentive neural sensitivity to short-term stimulus recurrence is involved in the analysis of auditory scenes at the level of delivery patterns of meaningful sounds. This may enable birds to efficiently and automatically distinguish frequently recurring vocalizations from other events in their auditory scene.

  6. Short-term and long-term deflection of reinforced hollow core ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents a study on different methods of analysis that are currently used by design codes to predict the short-term and long-term deflection of reinforced concrete slab systems and compares the predicted deflections with measured deflections. The experimental work to measure deflections involved the testing of ...

  7. Robust short-term memory without synaptic learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Johnson

    Full Text Available Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can--as a gradual modification of synaptic weights--since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds. The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings.

  8. Robust short-term memory without synaptic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J; Torres, Joaquín J

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can--as a gradual modification of synaptic weights--since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds). The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings.

  9. Robust Short-Term Memory without Synaptic Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J.; Torres, Joaquín J.

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can – as a gradual modification of synaptic weights – since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds). The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings. PMID:23349664

  10. Exercise during Short-Term and Long-Term Continuous Exposure to Hypoxia Exacerbates Sleep-Related Periodic Breathing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellez, Helio Fernandez; Morrison, Shawnda A.; Neyt, Xavier; Mairesse, Olivier; Piacentini, Maria Francesca; Macdonald-Nethercott, Eoin; Pangerc, Andrej; Dolenc-Groselj, Leja; Eiken, Ola; Pattyn, Nathalie; Mekjavic, Igor B.; Meeusen, Romain

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: Exposure to hypoxia elevates chemosensitivity, which can lead to periodic breathing. Exercise impacts gas exchange, altering chemosensitivity; however, interactions between sleep, exercise and chronic hypoxic exposure have not been examined. This study investigated whether exercise exacerbates sleep-related periodic breathing in hypoxia. Methods: Two experimental phases. Short-Term Phase: a laboratory controlled, group-design study in which 16 active, healthy men (age: 25 ± 3 y, height: 1.79 ± 0.06 m, mass: 74 ± 8 kg) were confined to a normobaric hypoxic environment (FIO2 = 0.139 ± 0.003, 4,000 m) for 10 days, after random assignment to a sedentary (control, CON) or cycle-exercise group (EX). Long-Term Phase: conducted at the Concordia Antarctic Research Station (3,800 m equivalent at the Equator) where 14 men (age: 36 ± 9 y, height: 1.77 ± 0.09 m, mass: 75 ± 10 kg) lived for 12–14 months, continuously confined. Participants were stratified post hoc based on self-reported physical activity levels. We quantified apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) and physical activity variables. Results: Short-Term Phase: mean AHI scores were significantly elevated in the EX group compared to CON (Night1 = CON: 39 ± 51, EX: 91 ± 59; Night10 = CON: 32 ± 32, EX: 92 ± 48; P = 0.046). Long-Term Phase: AHI was correlated to mean exercise time (R2 = 0.4857; P = 0.008) and the coefficient of variation in night oxyhemoglobin saturation (SpO2; R2 = 0.3062; P = 0.049). Conclusions: Data indicate that exercise (physical activity) per se affects night SpO2 concentrations and AHI after a minimum of two bouts of moderate-intensity hypoxic exercise, while habitual physical activity in hypobaric hypoxic confinement affects breathing during sleep, up to 13+ months' duration Citation: Tellez HF, Morrison SA, Neyt X, Mairesse O, Piacentini MF, Macdonald-Nethercott E, Pangerc A, Dolenc-Groselj L, Eiken O, Pattyn N, Mekjavic IB, Meeusen R. Exercise during short-term and long-term

  11. Rainfall over the African continent from the 19th through the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholson, Sharon E.; Funk, Chris; Fink, Andreas H.

    2018-06-01

    Most of the African continent is semi-arid and hence prone to extreme variations in rainfall from year to year. The extreme droughts that have plagued the Sahel and eastern Africa are particularly well known. This article uses a markedly expanded and updated rainfall data set to examine rainfall variability in 13 sectors that cover most of the continent. Annual rainfall is presented for each sector; the March-to-May and October-November seasons are also examined for equatorial sectors. In each case, the article includes the longest and most comprehensive precipitation gauge series ever published. All time series cover at least a century and most cover roughly one and one-half centuries or more. Although towards the end of the 20th century there was a widespread trend towards more arid conditions, few significant trends are evident over the entire period of record. The largest were downward trends in the Sahel and western sectors of North Africa. In those regions, an abrupt reduction in rainfall occurred around 1968, but a synchronous change occurred many other parts of Africa. A recovery did occur in the Sahel, but to varying degrees across the east-west expanse of the region. Noteworthy is that the west-to-east rainfall gradient across the region appears to have weakened in recent decades. For the continent as a whole, another change began in the 1980s decade, with more arid conditions persisting at the continental scale until early in the twenty-first century. No other such period of dry conditions occurred within the roughly one and one-half centuries evaluated here. A notable change also occurred at the seasonal level. During the period 1980 to 1998 rainfall during March-to-May was well below the long-term mean throughout most of the area from 20° N to 35° S. At the same time rainfall was above the long-term mean in most of eastern sectors within this latitude span, indicating a change in the seasonality of rainfall of a large part of Africa.

  12. Short-term memory binding deficits in Alzheimer's disease

    OpenAIRE

    Parra, Mario; Abrahams, S.; Fabi, K.; Logie, R.; Luzzi, S.; Della Sala, Sergio

    2009-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease impairs long term memories for related events (e.g. faces with names) more than for single events (e.g. list of faces or names). Whether or not this associative or ‘binding’ deficit is also found in short-term memory has not yet been explored. In two experiments we investigated binding deficits in verbal short-term memory in Alzheimer's disease. Experiment 1 : 23 patients with Alzheimer's disease and 23 age and education matched healthy elderly were recruited. Participants...

  13. Relationship between short-term sexual strategies and sexual jealousy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Eugene W

    2005-02-01

    In a classic study, Buss, Larson, Westen, and Semmelroth reported that men were more distressed by the thought of a partner's sexual infidelity (sexual jealousy) and women were more distressed by the thought of a partner's emotional infidelity (emotional jealousy). Initially, Buss and his associates explained these results by suggesting that men are concerned about uncertainty of paternity, that is, the possibility of raising another man's child while believing the child is their own. However, later they explained the results in terms of men's preference for short-term sexual strategies. The purpose of this research was to test the explanation of short-term sexual strategies. Men and women subjects were instructed to imagine themselves in a relationship which was either short-term (primarily sexual) or long-term (involving commitment) and then respond to Buss's jealousy items. It was hypothesized that, when both men and women imagined a short-term relationship, they would be more threatened by a partner's sexual infidelity, and, when they imagined a long-term relationship, they would be more threatened by a partner's emotional infidelity. Support was found for this hypothesis.

  14. Impact of long-term and short-term therapies on seminal parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jlenia Elia

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The aim of this work was: i to evaluate the prevalence of male partners of subfertile couples being treated with long/short term therapies for non andrological diseases; ii to study their seminal profile for the possible effects of their treatments on spermatogenesis and/or epididymal maturation. Methods: The study group was made up of 723 subjects, aged between 25 and 47 years. Semen analysis was performed according to World Health Organization (WHO guidelines (1999. The Superimposed Image Analysis System (SIAS, which is based on the computerized superimposition of spermatozoa images, was used to assess sperm motility parameters. Results: The prevalence of subjects taking pharmacological treatments was 22.7% (164/723. The prevalence was 3.7% (27/723 for the Short-Term Group and 18.9% (137/723 for the Long-Term Group. The subjects of each group were also subdivided into subgroups according to the treatments being received. Regarding the seminal profile, we did not observe a significant difference between the Long-Term, Short-Term or the Control Group. However, regarding the subgroups, we found a significant decrease in sperm number and progressive motility percentage in the subjects receiving treatment with antihypertensive drugs compared with the other subgroups and the Control Group. Conclusions: In the management of infertile couples, the potential negative impact on seminal parameters of any drugs being taken as Long-Term Therapy should be considered. The pathogenic mechanism needs to be clarified.

  15. An Untargeted Metabolomics Approach to Characterize Short-Term and Long-Term Metabolic Changes after Bariatric Surgery.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sophie H Narath

    Full Text Available Bariatric surgery is currently one of the most effective treatments for obesity and leads to significant weight reduction, improved cardiovascular risk factors and overall survival in treated patients. To date, most studies focused on short-term effects of bariatric surgery on the metabolic profile and found high variation in the individual responses to surgery. The aim of this study was to identify relevant metabolic changes not only shortly after bariatric surgery (Roux-en-Y gastric bypass but also up to one year after the intervention by using untargeted metabolomics. 132 serum samples taken from 44 patients before surgery, after hospital discharge (1-3 weeks after surgery and at a 1-year follow-up during a prospective study (NCT01271062 performed at two study centers (Austria and Switzerland. The samples included 24 patients with type 2 diabetes at baseline, thereof 9 with diabetes remission after one year. The samples were analyzed by using liquid chromatography coupled to high resolution mass spectrometry (LC-HRMS, HILIC-QExactive. Raw data was processed with XCMS and drift-corrected through quantile regression based on quality controls. 177 relevant metabolic features were selected through Random Forests and univariate testing and 36 metabolites were identified. Identified metabolites included trimethylamine-N-oxide, alanine, phenylalanine and indoxyl-sulfate which are known markers for cardiovascular risk. In addition we found a significant decrease in alanine after one year in the group of patients with diabetes remission relative to non-remission. Our analysis highlights the importance of assessing multiple points in time in subjects undergoing bariatric surgery to enable the identification of biomarkers for treatment response, cardiovascular benefit and diabetes remission. Key-findings include different trend pattern over time for various metabolites and demonstrated that short term changes should not necessarily be used to identify

  16. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook

  17. Fractal analysis of rainfall occurrence observed in the synoptic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fractal analysis is important for characterizing and modeling rainfall's space-time variations in hydrology. The purpose of this study consists on determining, in a mono-fractal framework, the scale invariance of rainfall series in Benin synopticstations located in two main geographical area: Cotonou, Bohicon , Savè in a sub ...

  18. Contrasting predictability of summer monsoon rainfall ISOs over the northeastern and western Himalayan region: an application of Hurst exponent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Sandipan

    2017-09-01

    Due to heterogeneous nonlinear forcing of complex geomorphological features, predictability of monsoon rainfall 10-90-day intra-seasonal oscillations (ISO) over the complex terrain of northeastern and western Himalayan region (NEH and WH) remained poorly quantified. Using 72 and 61 number of station observations of monsoon rainfall ISOs of NEH and WH, respectively, this study attempts to investigate variation in the regional scale predictability of monsoon rainfall ISOs with respect to changing geomorphological features and monsoon rainfall characteristics. In view of the bimodal nonlinear dynamical structure of monsoon rainfall ISO, the fractal dynamical Hurst exponent-based predictability indices are estimated as an indicator of predictability for station observations of NEH and WH, and relationships with elevations, slopes, aspects, and average numbers of occurrences of long (short) spell of active (break) phases are investigated. Results show 10-90-day ISOs are anti-persistent throughout the IHR, although, predictability of 10-90-day ISOs is higher over the NEH region than WH. Predictabilities of ISOs are found to decrease with increasing elevation and slope for both NEH and WH regions. Predictabilities of ISOs over both regions are also found to increase linearly as the number of occurrences of monsoon rainfall ISO phases (active/break) increases.

  19. Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

    2015-04-01

    Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum

  20. Short-term flow induced crystallization in isotactic polypropylene : how short is short?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ma, Z.; Balzano, L.; Portale, G.; Peters, G.W.M.

    2013-01-01

    The so-called "short-term flow" protocol is widely applied in experimental flow-induced crystallization studies on polymers in order to separate the nucleation and subsequent growth processes [Liedauer et al. Int. Polym. Proc. 1993, 8, 236–244]. The basis of this protocol is the assumption that

  1. Comparison of Short Term with Long Term Catheterization after Anterior Colporrhaphy Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Movahed

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction & Objective: This belief that overfilling the bladder after anterior colporrhaphy might have a negative influence on surgical outcome, causes routine catheterization after operation. This study was done to compare short term (24h with long term (72h catheterization after anterior colporrhaphy.Materials & Methods: This randomized clinical trial was carried out at Kosar Hospital , Qazvin (Iran in 2005-2006. One hundred cases candidating for anterior colporrhaphy , were divided in two equal groups . In the first group foley catheter was removed 24 hours and in the second group 72 hours after the operation. Before removing catheter, urine sample was obtained for culture . After removal and urination, residual volume was determinded. If the volume exceeded 200 ml or retention occured, the catheter would be fixed for more 72 hours. Need for recatheterization, urinary retention, positive urine culture,and hospital stay were surveyed. The data was analyzed using T and Fisher tests.Results: Residual volume exceeding 200 ml and the need for recatheterization occurred in one case (2% in the short term group but in the long term group none of the subjects needed recatheterization (P=1. Retention was not seen. In the both groups, one case (2% had positive urine culture with no statistically significant difference (P=1. Mean hospital stay was short in the first group (P=0.00.Conclusion: Short term catheterization after anterior colporrhaphy does not cause urinary retention and decreases hospital stay.

  2. Short-term versus long-term market opportunities and financial constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrari, Angelo

    1999-01-01

    This presentation discusses gas developments in Europe, the European Gas Directive, short term vs. long term, and Snam's new challenges. The European gas market is characterized by (1) The role of gas in meeting the demand for energy, which varies greatly from one country to another, (2) A growing market, (3) Decreasing role of domestic production, and (4) Increasing imports. Within the European Union, the Gas Directive aims to transform single national markets into one integrated European market by introducing third party access to the network for eligible clients as a means of increasing the competition between operators. The Gas Directive would appear to modify the form of the market rather than its size, and in particular the sharing of responsibility and risk among operators. The market in the future will offer operators the possibility to exploit opportunities deriving mainly from demands for increased flexibility. Opportunities linked to entrepreneurial initiatives require long-term investments characteristic of the gas business. Risks and opportunities must be balanced evenly between different operators. If everyone takes on their own risks and responsibilities, this means a wider distribution of the risks of long-term vs. short-term, currently borne by the gas companies that are integrated, into a market that tends to favour the short-term. A gradual liberalization process should allow incumbent operators to gradually diversify their activities in new gas market areas or enter new business activities. They could move beyond their local and European boundaries in pursuit of an international dimension. The market will have to make the transition from the national to the European dimension: as an example, Snam covers 90% of the Italian market, but its share of an integrated European market will be about 15%

  3. Predicting extreme rainfall events over Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Impact of data assimilation with conventional and satellite observations

    KAUST Repository

    Viswanadhapalli, Yesubabu

    2015-08-20

    The impact of variational data assimilation for predicting two heavy rainfall events that caused devastating floods in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia is studied using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. On 25 November 2009 and 26 January 2011, the city was deluged with more than double the annual rainfall amount caused by convective storms. We used a high resolution, two-way nested domain WRF model to simulate the two rainfall episodes. Simulations include control runs initialized with National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecasting System (GFS) data and 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) data assimilation experiments conducted by assimilating NCEP prepbufr and radiance observations. Observations from Automated Weather Stations (AWS), synoptic charts, radar reflectivity and satellite pictures from the Presidency of Meteorology and Environment (PME), Jeddah, Saudi Arabia are used to assess the forecasting results. To evaluate the impact of the different assimilated observational datasets on the simulation of the major flooding event of 2009, we conducted 3DVAR experiments assimilating individual sources and a combination of all data sets. Results suggest that while the control run had a tendency to predict the storm earlier than observed, the assimilation of profile observations greatly improved the model\\'s thermodynamic structure and lead to better representation of simulated rainfall both in timing and amount. The experiment with assimilation of all available observations compared best with observed rainfall in terms of timing of the storm and rainfall distribution, demonstrating the importance of assimilating different types of observations. Retrospective experiments with and without data assimilation, for three different model lead times (48, 72 and 96-h), were performed to examine the skill of WRF model to predict the heavy rainfall events. Quantitative rainfall analysis of these simulations suggests that 48-h lead time runs with

  4. The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

    2017-08-01

    The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

  5. Short-Term Group Treatment for Adult Children of Alcoholics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Alvin; McCormack, WIlliam A.

    1992-01-01

    Adult children of alcoholics (n=24) were tested on measures of loneliness, anxiety, hostility, depression, and interpersonal dependency before and after participation in short-term group therapy. Highly significant test score changes supported effectiveness of individual therapy in short-term groups. (Author/NB)

  6. Frequency-specific insight into short-term memory capacity

    OpenAIRE

    Feurra, Matteo; Galli, Giulia; Pavone, Enea Francesco; Rossi, Alessandro; Rossi, Simone

    2016-01-01

    We provided novel evidence of a frequency-specific effect by transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) of the left posterior parietal cortex on short-term memory, during a digit span task. the effect was prominent with stimulation at beta frequency for young and not for middle-aged adults and correlated with age. Our findings highlighted a short-term memory capacity improvement by tACS application.

  7. Wheat yield vulnerability: relation to rainfall and suggestions for adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khalid Tafoughalti

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Wheat production is of paramount importance in the region of Meknes, which is mainly produced under rainfed conditions. It is the dominant cereal, the greater proportion being the soft type. During the past few decades, rainfall flaws have caused a number of cases of droughts. These flaws have seriously affecting wheat production. The main objective of this study is the assessment of rainfall variability at monthly, seasonal and annual scales and to determine their impact on wheat yields. To reduce this impact we suggested some mechanisms of adaptation. We used monthly rainfall records for three decades and wheat yields records of fifteen years. Rainfall variability is assessed utilizing the precipitation concentration index and the variation coefficient. The association between wheat yields and cumulative rainfall amounts of different scales was calculated based on a regression model to evaluate the impact of rainfall on wheat yields. Data analysis shown moderate seasonal and irregular annual rainfall distribution. Yields fluctuated from 210 to 4500 Kg/ha with 52% of coefficient of variation. The correlation results shows that soft wheat and hard wheat are strongly correlated with the period of January to March than with the whole growing-season. While they are adversely correlated with the mid-spring. This investigation concluded that synchronizing appropriate adaptation with the period of January to March was crucial to achieving success yield of wheat.

  8. Rainfall interception and the coupled surface water and energy balance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dijk, A.I.J.M.; et al., et al.; Moors, E.J.

    2015-01-01

    Evaporation from wet canopies (. E) can return up to half of incident rainfall back into the atmosphere and is a major cause of the difference in water use between forests and short vegetation. Canopy water budget measurements often suggest values of E during rainfall that are several times greater

  9. Reconciling long-term cultural diversity and short-term collective social behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valori, Luca; Picciolo, Francesco; Allansdottir, Agnes; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2012-01-24

    An outstanding open problem is whether collective social phenomena occurring over short timescales can systematically reduce cultural heterogeneity in the long run, and whether offline and online human interactions contribute differently to the process. Theoretical models suggest that short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity are mutually excluding, since they require very different levels of social influence. The latter jointly depends on two factors: the topology of the underlying social network and the overlap between individuals in multidimensional cultural space. However, while the empirical properties of social networks are intensively studied, little is known about the large-scale organization of real societies in cultural space, so that random input specifications are necessarily used in models. Here we use a large dataset to perform a high-dimensional analysis of the scientific beliefs of thousands of Europeans. We find that interopinion correlations determine a nontrivial ultrametric hierarchy of individuals in cultural space. When empirical data are used as inputs in models, ultrametricity has strong and counterintuitive effects. On short timescales, it facilitates a symmetry-breaking phase transition triggering coordinated social behavior. On long timescales, it suppresses cultural convergence by restricting it within disjoint groups. Moreover, ultrametricity implies that these results are surprisingly robust to modifications of the dynamical rules considered. Thus the empirical distribution of individuals in cultural space appears to systematically optimize the coexistence of short-term collective behavior and long-term cultural diversity, which can be realized simultaneously for the same moderate level of mutual influence in a diverse range of online and offline settings.

  10. Bias adjustment and advection interpolation of long-term high resolution radar rainfall series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Rasmussen, Michael R.

    2014-01-01

    It is generally acknowledged that in order to apply radar rainfall data for hydrological proposes adjustment against ground observations are crucial. Traditionally, radar reflectivity is transformed into rainfall rates applying a fixed reflectivity – rainfall rate relationship even though...... this is known to depend on the changing drop size distribution of the specific rain. This creates a transient bias between the radar rainfall and the ground observations due to seasonal changes of the drop size distribution as well as other atmospheric effects and effects related to the radar observational...

  11. Short-Term Robustness of Production Management Systems : New Methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Gaury, E.G.A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the short-term robustness of production planning and control systems. This robustness is defined here as the systems ability to maintain short-term service probabilities (i.e., the probability that the fill rate remains within a prespecified range), in a variety of

  12. Differences in health status between long-term and short-term benzodiazepine users.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zandstra, S.M.; Furer, J.W.; Lisdonk, E.H. van de; Bor, J.H.J.; Zitman, F.G.; Weel, C. van

    2002-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Despite generally accepted advice to keep treatment short, benzodiazepines are often prescibed for more than six months. Prevention of long-term benzodiazepine use could be facilitated by the utilisation of risk indicators for long-term use. However, the characteristics of long-term

  13. The roles of long-term phonotactic and lexical prosodic knowledge in phonological short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanida, Yuki; Ueno, Taiji; Lambon Ralph, Matthew A; Saito, Satoru

    2015-04-01

    Many previous studies have explored and confirmed the influence of long-term phonological representations on phonological short-term memory. In most investigations, phonological effects have been explored with respect to phonotactic constraints or frequency. If interaction between long-term memory and phonological short-term memory is a generalized principle, then other phonological characteristics-that is, suprasegmental aspects of phonology-should also exert similar effects on phonological short-term memory. We explored this hypothesis through three immediate serial-recall experiments that manipulated Japanese nonwords with respect to lexical prosody (pitch-accent type, reflecting suprasegmental characteristics) as well as phonotactic frequency (reflecting segmental characteristics). The results showed that phonotactic frequency affected the retention not only of the phonemic sequences, but also of pitch-accent patterns, when participants were instructed to recall both the phoneme sequence and accent pattern of nonwords. In addition, accent pattern typicality influenced the retention of the accent pattern: Typical accent patterns were recalled more accurately than atypical ones. These results indicate that both long-term phonotactic and lexical prosodic knowledge contribute to phonological short-term memory performance.

  14. Visual Short-Term Memory Complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    Several recent studies have explored the nature and limits of visual short-term memory (VSTM) (e.g. Luck & Vogel, 1997). A general VSTM capacity limit of about 3 to 4 letters has been found, thus confirming results from earlier studies (e.g. Cattell, 1885; Sperling, 1960). However, Alvarez...

  15. Brain oscillatory substrates of visual short-term memory capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauseng, Paul; Klimesch, Wolfgang; Heise, Kirstin F; Gruber, Walter R; Holz, Elisa; Karim, Ahmed A; Glennon, Mark; Gerloff, Christian; Birbaumer, Niels; Hummel, Friedhelm C

    2009-11-17

    The amount of information that can be stored in visual short-term memory is strictly limited to about four items. Therefore, memory capacity relies not only on the successful retention of relevant information but also on efficient suppression of distracting information, visual attention, and executive functions. However, completely separable neural signatures for these memory capacity-limiting factors remain to be identified. Because of its functional diversity, oscillatory brain activity may offer a utile solution. In the present study, we show that capacity-determining mechanisms, namely retention of relevant information and suppression of distracting information, are based on neural substrates independent of each other: the successful maintenance of relevant material in short-term memory is associated with cross-frequency phase synchronization between theta (rhythmical neural activity around 5 Hz) and gamma (> 50 Hz) oscillations at posterior parietal recording sites. On the other hand, electroencephalographic alpha activity (around 10 Hz) predicts memory capacity based on efficient suppression of irrelevant information in short-term memory. Moreover, repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation at alpha frequency can modulate short-term memory capacity by influencing the ability to suppress distracting information. Taken together, the current study provides evidence for a double dissociation of brain oscillatory correlates of visual short-term memory capacity.

  16. SHORT-TERM MEMORY IS INDEPENDENT OF BRAIN PROTEIN SYNTHESIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, Hasker P.; Rosenzweig, Mark R.; Jones, Oliver W.

    1980-09-01

    Male Swiss albino CD-1 mice given a single injection of a cerebral protein synthesis inhibitor, anisomycin (ANI) (1 mg/animal), 20 min prior to single trial passive avoidance training demonstrated impaired retention at tests given 3 hr, 6 hr, 1 day, and 7 days after training. Retention was not significantly different from saline controls when tests were given 0.5 or 1.5 hr after training. Prolonging inhibition of brain protein synthesis by giving either 1 or 2 additional injections of ANI 2 or 2 and 4 hr after training did not prolong short-term retention performance. The temporal development of impaired retention in ANI treated mice could not be accounted for by drug dosage, duration of protein synthesis inhibition, or nonspecific sickness at test. In contrast to the suggestion that protein synthesis inhibition prolongs short-term memory (Quinton, 1978), the results of this experiment indicate that short-term memory is not prolonged by antibiotic drugs that inhibit cerebral protein synthesis. All evidence seems consistent with the hypothesis that short-term memory is protein synthesis independent and that the establishment of long-term memory depends upon protein synthesis during or shortly after training. Evidence for a role of protein synthesis in memory maintenance is discussed.

  17. Impaired short-term memory for pitch in congenital amusia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillmann, Barbara; Lévêque, Yohana; Fornoni, Lesly; Albouy, Philippe; Caclin, Anne

    2016-06-01

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. The hypothesis is that the musical deficits arise from altered pitch processing, with impairments in pitch discrimination (i.e., pitch change detection, pitch direction discrimination and identification) and short-term memory. The present review article focuses on the deficit of short-term memory for pitch. Overall, the data discussed here suggest impairments at each level of processing in short-term memory tasks; starting with the encoding of the pitch information and the creation of the adequate memory trace, the retention of the pitch traces over time as well as the recollection and comparison of the stored information with newly incoming information. These impairments have been related to altered brain responses in a distributed fronto-temporal network, associated with decreased connectivity between these structures, as well as in abnormalities in the connectivity between the two auditory cortices. In contrast, amusic participants׳ short-term memory abilities for verbal material are preserved. These findings show that short-term memory deficits in congenital amusia are specific to pitch, suggesting a pitch-memory system that is, at least partly, separated from verbal memory. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Auditory working memory. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. The uranium industry: long-term planning for short-term competition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vottero, X.; Georges Capus, G.

    2001-01-01

    Long term planning for short term competition Today, uranium producers face new challenges in terms of both production (new regulatory, environmental and social constraints) and market conditions (new sources of uranium supply, very low prices and tough competition). In such a context, long-term planning is not just a prerequisite to survive in the nuclear fuel cycle industry. In fact, it also contributes to sustaining nuclear electricity generation facing fierce competition from other energy sources in increasingly deregulated markets. Firstly, the risk of investing in new mining projects in western countries is growing because, on the one hand, of very erratic market conditions and, on the other hand, of increasingly lengthy, complex and unpredictable regulatory conditions. Secondly, the supply of other sources of uranium (uranium derived from nuclear weapons, uranium produced in CIS countries, ...) involve other risks, mainly related to politics and commercial restrictions. Consequently, competitive uranium supply requires not only technical competence but also financial strength and good marketing capabilities in order to anticipate long-term market trends, in terms of both demand and supply. It also requires taking into account new parameters such as politics, environment, regulations, etc. Today, a supplier dedicated to the sustainable production of nuclear electricity must manage a broad range of long-term risks inherent to the procurement of uranium. Taking into account all these parameters in a context of short-term, fast-changing market is a great challenge for the future generation. World Uranium Civilian Supply and Demand. (authors)

  19. Weekend Effect" in Summertime U.S. Rainfall: Evidence for Midweek Intensification of Storms by Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Hahnenberger, Maura

    2006-01-01

    Persistent and strong dependence of rain rate on the day of the week has been found in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite estimates of summer afternoon rainfall over the southeast U.S. and the nearby Atlantic from 1998 to 2005. Midweek (Tue-Thu) rain rates and rain area appear to increase over land, and this increase is accompanied by a corresponding diminution of rainfall over nearby waters. Reanalysis data from atmospheric models, suggest that there is a corresponding weekly variation in atmospheric winds consistent with the changes in rainfall. These variations are almost certainly caused by weekly variations in human activity. The most likely cause of the observed changes in rainfall is the well documented weekly variation in atmospheric pollution. Particulate pollution is highest in the middle of the week. Considerable observational and modeling evidence has accumulated concerning the effects of aerosols on precipitation. Most of this evidence relates to the suppression of precipitation by aerosols, but it has been argued that storms in highly unstable moist environments can be invigorated by aerosols, and some modeling studies seem to confirm this. The strong weekly cycle in rainfall observed over the southeast U.S. along with what appears to be dynamical suppression of rainfall over the nearby Atlantic, and the lack of an observable cycle over the southwest U.S., are consistent with this theory.

  20. Insensitivity of visual short-term memory to irrelevant visual information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrade, Jackie; Kemps, Eva; Werniers, Yves; May, Jon; Szmalec, Arnaud

    2002-07-01

    Several authors have hypothesized that visuo-spatial working memory is functionally analogous to verbal working memory. Irrelevant background speech impairs verbal short-term memory. We investigated whether irrelevant visual information has an analogous effect on visual short-term memory, using a dynamic visual noise (DVN) technique known to disrupt visual imagery (Quinn & McConnell, 1996b). Experiment I replicated the effect of DVN on pegword imagery. Experiments 2 and 3 showed no effect of DVN on recall of static matrix patterns, despite a significant effect of a concurrent spatial tapping task. Experiment 4 showed no effect of DVN on encoding or maintenance of arrays of matrix patterns, despite testing memory by a recognition procedure to encourage visual rather than spatial processing. Serial position curves showed a one-item recency effect typical of visual short-term memory. Experiment 5 showed no effect of DVN on short-term recognition of Chinese characters, despite effects of visual similarity and a concurrent colour memory task that confirmed visual processing of the characters. We conclude that irrelevant visual noise does not impair visual short-term memory. Visual working memory may not be functionally analogous to verbal working memory, and different cognitive processes may underlie visual short-term memory and visual imagery.

  1. Rainfall Variability and its Implications for the Transferability of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mosrof agrj~ultural qctivities in semi-arid areqs of Tanzania ,d~pend on direct rainfall: Conse-, quently, any significant variation in /he temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall usually results in serious shortage of sQil~water available to plants and thus poor crop and livestock production. In this paper the variafJility and ...

  2. Remembering over the short-term: the case against the standard model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nairne, James S

    2002-01-01

    Psychologists often assume that short-term storage is synonymous with activation, a mnemonic property that keeps information in an immediately accessible form. Permanent knowledge is activated, as a result of on-line cognitive processing, and an activity trace is established "in" short-term (or working) memory. Activation is assumed to decay spontaneously with the passage of time, so a refreshing process-rehearsal-is needed to maintain availability. Most of the phenomena of immediate retention, such as capacity limitations and word length effects, are assumed to arise from trade-offs between rehearsal and decay. This "standard model" of how we remember over the short-term still enjoys considerable popularity, although recent research questions most of its main assumptions. In this chapter I review the recent research and identify the empirical and conceptual problems that plague traditional conceptions of short-term memory. Increasingly, researchers are recognizing that short-term retention is cue driven, much like long-term memory, and that neither rehearsal nor decay is likely to explain the particulars of short-term forgetting.

  3. Gummed-up memory: chewing gum impairs short-term recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Michail D; Hughes, Robert W; Jones, Dylan M

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have suggested that short-term memory is generally improved by chewing gum. However, we report the first studies to show that chewing gum impairs short-term memory for both item order and item identity. Experiment 1 showed that chewing gum reduces serial recall of letter lists. Experiment 2 indicated that chewing does not simply disrupt vocal-articulatory planning required for order retention: Chewing equally impairs a matched task that required retention of list item identity. Experiment 3 demonstrated that manual tapping produces a similar pattern of impairment to that of chewing gum. These results clearly qualify the assertion that chewing gum improves short-term memory. They also pose a problem for short-term memory theories asserting that forgetting is based on domain-specific interference given that chewing does not interfere with verbal memory any more than tapping. It is suggested that tapping and chewing reduce the general capacity to process sequences.

  4. Rainfall reliability, drought and flood vulnerability in Botswana ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rainfall data from 14 stations (cities, towns and major villages) spanning 26 years (1970 to 1995) were used to calculate reliability and vulnerability of rainfall in Botswana. Time series data for 72 years were generated from the long-term rainfall gauging stations and the number of wet and dry years determined. Apart from ...

  5. A Short Term Analogue Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shah, Peter Jivan

    1992-01-01

    A short term analogue memory is described. It is based on a well-known sample-hold topology in which leakage currents have been minimized partly by circuit design and partly by layout techniques. Measurements on a test chip implemented in a standard 2.4 micron analogue CMOS process show a droop...

  6. Monthly variations of diurnal rainfall in north coast of West Java Indonesia during boreal winter periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yulihastin, E.; Trismidianto

    2018-05-01

    Diurnal rainfall during the active monsoon period is usually associated with the highest convective activity that often triggers extreme rainfall. Investigating diurnal rainfall behavior in the north coast of West Java is important to recognize the behavioral trends of data leading to such extreme events in strategic West Java because the city of Jakarta is located in this region. Variability of diurnal rainfall during the period of active monsoon on December-January-February (DJF) composite during the 2000-2016 period was investigated using hourly rainfall data from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B41RT dataset. Through the Empirical Mode Decomposition method was appears that the diurnal rain cycle during February has increased significantly in its amplitude and frequency. It is simultaneously shows that the indication of extreme rainfall events is related to diurnal rain divergences during February shown through phase shifts. The diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal cycles appear on the characteristics of the DJF composite rainfall data during the 2000-2016 period.The significant increases in amplitude occurred during February are the diurnal (IMF 3) and terdiurnal (IMF 1) of rainfall cycles.

  7. Rainfall characteristics and thresholds for periglacial debris flows in the Parlung Zangbo Basin, southeast Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Mingfeng; Chen, Ningsheng; Ding, Haitao

    2018-02-01

    The Parlung Zangbo Basin in the southeastern Tibet Plateau is affected by the summer monsoon from the Indian Ocean, which produces large rainfall gradients in the basin. Rainfall data during 2012-2015 from five new meteorological stations are used to analyse the rainfall characteristics. The daily rainfall, rainfall duration, mean rainfall intensity, and peak rainfall intensity are consistent, but sometimes contrasting. For example, these values decrease with increasing altitude, and the gradient is large downstream and small upstream, respectively. Moreover, the rainfall intensity peaks between 01:00 and 06:00 and increases during the afternoon. Based on the analysis of 14 debris flow cases in the basin, differences in the rainfall threshold differ depending on the location as sediment varieties. The sediment in the middle portions of the basin is wet and well structured; thus, long-duration, high-intensity rainfall is required to generate debris flows. Ravels in the upstream area are arid and not well structured, and short-duration rainfall is required to trigger debris flows. Between the above two locations, either long-duration, low-intensity rainfall or short-duration, high-intensity rainfall could provoke debris flows. Clearly, differences in rainfall characteristics and rainfall thresholds that are associated with the location must be considered in debris flow monitoring and warnings.

  8. Location-Based Rainfall Nowcasting Service for Public

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, Wang-chun

    2013-04-01

    The Hong Kong Observatory has developed the "Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms in Localized Systems (SWIRLS)", a radar-based rainfall nowcasting system originally to support forecasters in rainstorm warning and severe weather forecasting such as hail, lightning and strong wind gusts in Hong Kong. The system has since been extended to provide rainfall nowcast service direct for the public in recent years. Following the launch of "Rainfall Nowcast for the Pearl River Delta Region" service provided via a Geographical Information System (GIS) platform in 2008, a location-based rainfall nowcast service served through "MyObservatory", a smartphone app for iOS and Android developed by the Observatory, debuted in September 2012. The new service takes advantage of the capability of smartphones to detect own locations and utilizes the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) from SWIRLS to provide location-based rainfall nowcast to the public. The conversion of radar reflectivity data (at 2 or 3 km above ground) to rainfall in SWIRLS is based on the Z-R relationship (Z=aRb) with dynamical calibration of the coefficients a and b determined using real-time rain gauge data. Adopting the "Multi-scale Optical-flow by Variational Analysis (MOVA)" scheme to track the movement of radar echoes and Semi-Lagrangian Advection (SLA) scheme to extrapolate their movement, the system is capable of producing QPF for the next six hours in a grid of 480 x 480 that covers a domain of 256 km x 256 km once every 6 minutes. Referencing the closest point in a resampled 2-km grid over the territory of Hong Kong, a prediction as to whether there will be rainfall exceeding 0.5 mm in every 30 minute intervals for the next two hours at users' own or designated locations are made available to the users in both textual and graphical format. For those users who have opted to receive notifications, a message would pop up on the user's phone whenever rain is predicted in the next two hours in a user

  9. Seasonal modeling of hand, foot, and mouth disease as a function of meteorological variations in Chongqing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Pin; Zhao, Han; You, Fangxin; Zhou, Hailong; Goggins, William B.

    2017-08-01

    Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is an enterovirus-induced infectious disease, mainly affecting children under 5 years old. Outbreaks of HFMD in recent years indicate the disease interacts with both the weather and season. This study aimed to investigate the seasonal association between HFMD and weather variation in Chongqing, China. Generalized additive models and distributed lag non-linear models based on a maximum lag of 14 days, with negative binomial distribution assumed to account for overdispersion, were constructed to model the association between reporting HFMD cases from 2009 to 2014 and daily mean temperature, relative humidity, total rainfall and sun duration, adjusting for trend, season, and day of the week. The year-round temperature and relative humidity, rainfall in summer, and sun duration in winter were all significantly associated with HFMD. An inverted-U relationship was found between mean temperature and HFMD above 19 °C in summer, with a maximum morbidity at 27 °C, while the risk increased linearly with the temperature in winter. A hockey-stick association was found for relative humidity in summer with increasing risks over 60%. Heavy rainfall, relative to no rain, was found to be associated with reduced HFMD risk in summer and 2 h of sunshine could decrease the risk by 21% in winter. The present study showed meteorological variables were differentially associated with HFMD incidence in two seasons. Short-term weather variation surveillance and forecasting could be employed as an early indicator for potential HFMD outbreaks.

  10. Characteristics of rainfall triggering of debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. Chen

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports the variation in rainfall characteristics associated with debris flows in the Chenyulan watershed, central Taiwan, between 1963 and 2009. The maximum hourly rainfall Im, the maximum 24 h rainfall Rd, and the rainfall index RI (defined as the product RdIm were analysed for each rainfall event that triggered a debris flow within the watershed. The corresponding number of debris flows initiated by each rainfall event (N was also investigated via image analysis and/or field investigation. The relationship between N and RI was analysed. Higher RI of a rainfall event would trigger a larger number of debris flows. This paper also discusses the effects of the Chi-Chi earthquake (CCE on this relationship and on debris flow initiation. The results showed that the critical RI for debris flow initiation had significant variations and was significantly lower in the years immediately following the CCE of 1999, but appeared to revert to the pre-earthquake condition about five years later. Under the same extreme rainfall event of RI = 365 cm2 h−1, the value of N in the CCE-affected period could be six times larger than that in the non-CCE-affected periods.

  11. Retention interval affects visual short-term memory encoding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bankó, Eva M; Vidnyánszky, Zoltán

    2010-03-01

    Humans can efficiently store fine-detailed facial emotional information in visual short-term memory for several seconds. However, an unresolved question is whether the same neural mechanisms underlie high-fidelity short-term memory for emotional expressions at different retention intervals. Here we show that retention interval affects the neural processes of short-term memory encoding using a delayed facial emotion discrimination task. The early sensory P100 component of the event-related potentials (ERP) was larger in the 1-s interstimulus interval (ISI) condition than in the 6-s ISI condition, whereas the face-specific N170 component was larger in the longer ISI condition. Furthermore, the memory-related late P3b component of the ERP responses was also modulated by retention interval: it was reduced in the 1-s ISI as compared with the 6-s condition. The present findings cannot be explained based on differences in sensory processing demands or overall task difficulty because there was no difference in the stimulus information and subjects' performance between the two different ISI conditions. These results reveal that encoding processes underlying high-precision short-term memory for facial emotional expressions are modulated depending on whether information has to be stored for one or for several seconds.

  12. Rainy Day: A Remote Sensing-Driven Extreme Rainfall Simulation Approach for Hazard Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Daniel; Yatheendradas, Soni; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Kirschbaum, Dalia; Ayalew, Tibebu; Mantilla, Ricardo; Krajewski, Witold

    2015-04-01

    Progress on the assessment of rainfall-driven hazards such as floods and landslides has been hampered by the challenge of characterizing the frequency, intensity, and structure of extreme rainfall at the watershed or hillslope scale. Conventional approaches rely on simplifying assumptions and are strongly dependent on the location, the availability of long-term rain gage measurements, and the subjectivity of the analyst. Regional and global-scale rainfall remote sensing products provide an alternative, but are limited by relatively short (~15-year) observational records. To overcome this, we have coupled these remote sensing products with a space-time resampling framework known as stochastic storm transposition (SST). SST "lengthens" the rainfall record by resampling from a catalog of observed storms from a user-defined region, effectively recreating the regional extreme rainfall hydroclimate. This coupling has been codified in Rainy Day, a Python-based platform for quickly generating large numbers of probabilistic extreme rainfall "scenarios" at any point on the globe. Rainy Day is readily compatible with any gridded rainfall dataset. The user can optionally incorporate regional rain gage or weather radar measurements for bias correction using the Precipitation Uncertainties for Satellite Hydrology (PUSH) framework. Results from Rainy Day using the CMORPH satellite precipitation product are compared with local observations in two examples. The first example is peak discharge estimation in a medium-sized (~4000 square km) watershed in the central United States performed using CUENCAS, a parsimonious physically-based distributed hydrologic model. The second example is rainfall frequency analysis for Saint Lucia, a small volcanic island in the eastern Caribbean that is prone to landslides and flash floods. The distinct rainfall hydroclimates of the two example sites illustrate the flexibility of the approach and its usefulness for hazard analysis in data-poor regions.

  13. The Delicate Analysis of Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Changwei; Zheng, Yuan

    2017-05-01

    This paper proposes a new method for short-term load forecasting based on the similar day method, correlation coefficient and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to achieve the precision analysis of load variation from three aspects (typical day, correlation coefficient, spectral analysis) and three dimensions (time dimension, industry dimensions, the main factors influencing the load characteristic such as national policies, regional economic, holidays, electricity and so on). First, the branch algorithm one-class-SVM is adopted to selection the typical day. Second, correlation coefficient method is used to obtain the direction and strength of the linear relationship between two random variables, which can reflect the influence caused by the customer macro policy and the scale of production to the electricity price. Third, Fourier transform residual error correction model is proposed to reflect the nature of load extracting from the residual error. Finally, simulation result indicates the validity and engineering practicability of the proposed method.

  14. A survey of short-term and long-term stability of tube parameters in a mammography unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Praskalo Jovica Ž.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to set up a successful mammography screening program in the Republic of Srpska, a Siemens Mammomat 1000 X-ray machine was selected for analysis as the said mammography system is widely used in clinical practice. The variations in tube parameters (specific air kerma, high-voltage accuracy and reproducibility, linearity between exposure and dose exposure time were monitored over a five-year period, from 2008 to 2012. In addition, due to observed daily fluctuations for chosen parameters, a series of measurements were performed three times a day within a single-month period (mainly October 2012. The goal of such an experimental set up is to assess short-term and long-term stability of tube parameters in the given mammography unit and to make a comparison between them. The present paper shows how an early detection of significant parameter fluctuations can help eliminate irregularities and optimize the performance of mammography systems. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. 171007

  15. Comparison of Sugammadex and Neostigmine in Short Term Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatih Koc

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: This study compared the efficacy and cost effectivines of sugammadex and neostigmine for reversal of neuromuscular blockade induced by rocuronium for short term elective surgery. Material and Method: After written informed consent, 33 patients aged 18%u201365, ASA I-III, who were undergoing short term surgery (

  16. Short-term memory for scenes with affective content

    OpenAIRE

    Maljkovic, Vera; Martini, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    The emotional content of visual images can be parameterized along two dimensions: valence (pleasantness) and arousal (intensity of emotion). In this study we ask how these distinct emotional dimensions affect the short-term memory of human observers viewing a rapid stream of images and trying to remember their content. We show that valence and arousal modulate short-term memory as independent factors. Arousal influences dramatically the average speed of data accumulation in memory: Higher aro...

  17. LANGUAGE REPETITION AND SHORT-TERM MEMORY: AN INTEGRATIVE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve eMajerus

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Short-term maintenance of verbal information is a core factor of language repetition, especially when reproducing multiple or unfamiliar stimuli. Many models of language processing locate the verbal short-term maintenance function in the left posterior superior temporo-parietal area and its connections with the inferior frontal gyrus. However, research in the field of short-term memory has implicated bilateral fronto-parietal networks, involved in attention and serial order processing, as being critical for the maintenance and reproduction of verbal sequences. We present here an integrative framework aimed at bridging research in the language processing and short-term memory fields. This framework considers verbal short-term maintenance as an emergent function resulting from synchronized and integrated activation in dorsal and ventral language processing networks as well as fronto-parietal attention and serial order processing networks. To-be-maintained item representations are temporarily activated in the dorsal and ventral language processing networks, novel phoneme and word serial order information is proposed to be maintained via a right fronto-parietal serial order processing network, and activation in these different networks is proposed to be coordinated and maintained via a left fronto-parietal attention processing network. This framework provides new perspectives for our understanding of information maintenance at the nonword-, word- and sentence-level as well as of verbal maintenance deficits in case of brain injury.

  18. Language repetition and short-term memory: an integrative framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majerus, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Short-term maintenance of verbal information is a core factor of language repetition, especially when reproducing multiple or unfamiliar stimuli. Many models of language processing locate the verbal short-term maintenance function in the left posterior superior temporo-parietal area and its connections with the inferior frontal gyrus. However, research in the field of short-term memory has implicated bilateral fronto-parietal networks, involved in attention and serial order processing, as being critical for the maintenance and reproduction of verbal sequences. We present here an integrative framework aimed at bridging research in the language processing and short-term memory fields. This framework considers verbal short-term maintenance as an emergent function resulting from synchronized and integrated activation in dorsal and ventral language processing networks as well as fronto-parietal attention and serial order processing networks. To-be-maintained item representations are temporarily activated in the dorsal and ventral language processing networks, novel phoneme and word serial order information is proposed to be maintained via a right fronto-parietal serial order processing network, and activation in these different networks is proposed to be coordinated and maintained via a left fronto-parietal attention processing network. This framework provides new perspectives for our understanding of information maintenance at the non-word-, word- and sentence-level as well as of verbal maintenance deficits in case of brain injury.

  19. Differential responses of short-term soil respiration dynamics to the experimental addition of nitrogen and water in the temperate semi-arid steppe of Inner Mongolia, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Yuchun; Liu, Xinchao; Dong, Yunshe; Peng, Qin; He, Yating; Sun, Liangjie; Jia, Junqiang; Cao, Congcong

    2014-04-01

    We examined the effects of simulated rainfall and increasing N supply of different levels on CO2 pulse emission from typical Inner Mongolian steppe soil using the static opaque chamber technique, respectively in a dry June and a rainy August. The treatments included NH4NO3 additions at rates of 0, 5, 10, and 20 g N/(m(2)·year) with or without water. Immediately after the experimental simulated rainfall events, the CO2 effluxes in the watering plots without N addition (WCK) increased greatly and reached the maximum value at 2 hr. However, the efflux level reverted to the background level within 48 hr. The cumulative CO2 effluxes in the soil rang ed from 5.60 to 6.49 g C/m(2) over 48 hr after a single water application, thus showing an increase of approximately 148.64% and 48.36% in the effluxes during both observation periods. By contrast, the addition of different N levels without water addition did not result in a significant change in soil respiration in the short term. Two-way ANOVA showed that the effects of the interaction between water and N addition were insignificant in short-term soil CO2 effluxes in the soil. The cumulative soil CO2 fluxes of different treatments over 48 hr accounted for approximately 5.34% to 6.91% and 2.36% to 2.93% of annual C emission in both experimental periods. These results stress the need for improving the sampling frequency after rainfall in future studies to ensure more accurate evaluation of the grassland C emission contribution. Copyright © 2014 The Research Centre for Eco-Environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Short-horizon regulation for long-term investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, Z.; Werker, B.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    We study the effects of imposing repeated short-horizon regulatory constraints on long-term investors. We show that Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall constraints, when imposed dynamically, lead to similar optimal portfolios and wealth distributions. We also show that, in utility terms, the costs

  1. The Variation of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall within the North Atlantic and Pacific as Observed from Satellites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodgers, Edward; Pierce, Harold; Adler, Robert

    1999-01-01

    Tropical cyclone monthly rainfall amounts are estimated from passive microwave satellite observations in the North Atlantic and in three equal geographical regions of the North Pacific (i.e., Western, Central, and Eastern North Pacific). These satellite-derived rainfall amounts are used to assess the impact of tropical cyclone rainfall in altering the geographical, seasonal, and inter-annual distribution of the 1987-1989, 1991-1998 North Atlantic and Pacific rainfall during June-November when tropical cyclones are most abundant. To estimate these tropical cyclone rainfall amounts, mean monthly rain rates are derived from the Defence Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) Special Sensor Microwave/ Radiometer (SSM/I) observations within 444 km radius of the center of those North Atlantic and Pacific tropical cyclones that reached storm stage and greater. These rain rate observations are then multiplied by the number of hours in a given month. Mean monthly rainfall amounts are also constructed for all the other North Atlantic and Pacific raining systems during this eleven year period for the purpose of estimating the geographical distribution and intensity of rainfall contributed by non-tropical cyclone systems. Further, the combination of the non-tropical cyclone and tropical cyclone (i.e., total) rainfall is constructed to delineate the fractional amount that tropical cyclones contributed to the total North Pacific rainfall.

  2. Verbal short-term memory and vocabulary learning in polyglots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papagno, C; Vallar, G

    1995-02-01

    Polyglot and non-polyglot Italian subjects were given tests assessing verbal (phonological) and visuo-spatial short-term and long-term memory, general intelligence, and vocabulary knowledge in their native language. Polyglots had a superior level of performance in verbal short-term memory tasks (auditory digit span and nonword repetition) and in a paired-associate learning test, which assessed the subjects' ability to acquire new (Russian) words. By contrast, the two groups had comparable performance levels in tasks assessing general intelligence, visuo-spatial short-term memory and learning, and paired-associate learning of Italian words. These findings, which are in line with neuropsychological and developmental evidence, as well as with data from normal subjects, suggest a close relationship between the capacity of phonological memory and the acquisition of foreign languages.

  3. The stimulation of hematosis on short-term and prolong irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tukhtaev, T.M.

    1978-01-01

    This book studies the stimulation of hematosis on short-term and prolong irradiation, pathogenetic mechanisms of lesion and reconstruction of hematosis at critical radiation sickness, action hematosis stimulators in short-term irradiation conditions

  4. Rapid effects of estrogens on short-term memory: Possible mechanisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paletta, Pietro; Sheppard, Paul A S; Matta, Richard; Ervin, Kelsy S J; Choleris, Elena

    2018-06-01

    Estrogens affect learning and memory through rapid and delayed mechanisms. Here we review studies on rapid effects on short-term memory. Estradiol rapidly improves social and object recognition memory, spatial memory, and social learning when administered systemically. The dorsal hippocampus mediates estrogen rapid facilitation of object, social and spatial short-term memory. The medial amygdala mediates rapid facilitation of social recognition. The three estrogen receptors, α (ERα), β (ERβ) and the G-protein coupled estrogen receptor (GPER) appear to play different roles depending on the task and brain region. Both ERα and GPER agonists rapidly facilitate short-term social and object recognition and spatial memory when administered systemically or into the dorsal hippocampus and facilitate social recognition in the medial amygdala. Conversely, only GPER can facilitate social learning after systemic treatment and an ERβ agonist only rapidly improved short-term spatial memory when given systemically or into the hippocampus, but also facilitates social recognition in the medial amygdala. Investigations into the mechanisms behind estrogens' rapid effects on short term memory showed an involvement of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK) and the phosphoinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) kinase pathways. Recent evidence also showed that estrogens interact with the neuropeptide oxytocin in rapidly facilitating social recognition. Estrogens can increase the production and/or release of oxytocin and other neurotransmitters, such as dopamine and acetylcholine. Therefore, it is possible that estrogens' rapid effects on short-term memory may occur through the regulation of various neurotransmitters, although more research is need on these interactions as well as the mechanisms of estrogens' actions on short-term memory. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Neighbourhood Characteristics and Long-Term Air Pollution Levels Modify the Association between the Short-Term Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations and All-Cause Mortality in Paris.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Séverine Deguen

    Full Text Available While a great number of papers have been published on the short-term effects of air pollution on mortality, few have tried to assess whether this association varies according to the neighbourhood socioeconomic level and long-term ambient air concentrations measured at the place of residence. We explored the effect modification of 1 socioeconomic status, 2 long-term NO2 ambient air concentrations, and 3 both combined, on the association between short-term exposure to NO2 and all-cause mortality in Paris (France.A time-stratified case-crossover analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of short-term NO2 variations on mortality, based on 79,107 deaths having occurred among subjects aged over 35 years, from 2004 to 2009, in the city of Paris. Simple and double interactions were statistically tested in order to analyse effect modification by neighbourhood characteristics on the association between mortality and short-term NO2 exposure. The data was estimated at the census block scale (n=866.The mean of the NO2 concentrations during the five days prior to deaths were associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality: overall Excess Risk (ER was 0.94% (95%CI=[0.08;1.80]. A higher risk was revealed for subjects living in the most deprived census blocks in comparison with higher socioeconomic level areas (ER=3.14% (95%CI=[1.41-4.90], p<0.001. Among these deprived census blocks, excess risk was even higher where long-term average NO2 concentrations were above 55.8 μg/m3 (the top tercile of distribution: ER=4.84% (95%CI=[1.56;8.24], p for interaction=0.02.Our results show that people living in census blocks characterized by low socioeconomic status are more vulnerable to air pollution episodes. There is also an indication that people living in these disadvantaged census blocks might experience even higher risk following short-term air pollution episodes, when they are also chronically exposed to higher NO2 levels.

  6. Short- and long-term reliability of language fMRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nettekoven, Charlotte; Reck, Nicola; Goldbrunner, Roland; Grefkes, Christian; Weiß Lucas, Carolin

    2018-08-01

    When using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) for mapping important language functions, a high test-retest reliability is mandatory, both in basic scientific research and for clinical applications. We, therefore, systematically tested the short- and long-term reliability of fMRI in a group of healthy subjects using a picture naming task and a sparse-sampling fMRI protocol. We hypothesized that test-retest reliability might be higher for (i) speech-related motor areas than for other language areas and for (ii) the short as compared to the long intersession interval. 16 right-handed subjects (mean age: 29 years) participated in three sessions separated by 2-6 (session 1 and 2, short-term) and 21-34 days (session 1 and 3, long-term). Subjects were asked to perform the same overt picture naming task in each fMRI session (50 black-white images per session). Reliability was tested using the following measures: (i) Euclidean distances (ED) between local activation maxima and Centers of Gravity (CoGs), (ii) overlap volumes and (iii) voxel-wise intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs). Analyses were performed for three regions of interest which were chosen based on whole-brain group data: primary motor cortex (M1), superior temporal gyrus (STG) and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). Our results revealed that the activation centers were highly reliable, independent of the time interval, ROI or hemisphere with significantly smaller ED for the local activation maxima (6.45 ± 1.36 mm) as compared to the CoGs (8.03 ± 2.01 mm). In contrast, the extent of activation revealed rather low reliability values with overlaps ranging from 24% (IFG) to 56% (STG). Here, the left hemisphere showed significantly higher overlap volumes than the right hemisphere. Although mean ICCs ranged between poor (ICC0.75) were found for all ROIs. Voxel-wise reliability of the different ROIs was influenced by the intersession interval. Taken together, we could show that, despite of

  7. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-05

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

  8. Short-term and long-term earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maura Murru

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This study describes three earthquake occurrence models as applied to the whole Italian territory, to assess the occurrence probabilities of future (M ≥5.0 earthquakes: two as short-term (24 hour models, and one as long-term (5 and 10 years. The first model for short-term forecasts is a purely stochastic epidemic type earthquake sequence (ETES model. The second short-term model is an epidemic rate-state (ERS forecast based on a model that is physically constrained by the application to the earthquake clustering of the Dieterich rate-state constitutive law. The third forecast is based on a long-term stress transfer (LTST model that considers the perturbations of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes. These models have been submitted to the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP for forecast testing for Italy (ETH-Zurich, and they were locked down to test their validity on real data in a future setting starting from August 1, 2009.

  9. Category Specific Knowledge Modulate Capacity Limitations of Visual Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dall, Jonas Olsen; Watanabe, Katsumi; Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    2016-01-01

    We explore whether expertise can modulate the capacity of visual short-term memory, as some seem to argue that training affects capacity of short-term memory [13] while others are not able to find this modulation [12]. We extend on a previous study [3] demonstrating expertise effects by investiga...... are in line with the theoretical interpretation that visual short-term memory reflects the sum of the reverberating feedback loops to representations in long-term memory.......We explore whether expertise can modulate the capacity of visual short-term memory, as some seem to argue that training affects capacity of short-term memory [13] while others are not able to find this modulation [12]. We extend on a previous study [3] demonstrating expertise effects......), and expert observers (Japanese university students). For both the picture and the letter condition we find no performance difference in memory capacity, however, in the critical hiragana condition we demonstrate a systematic difference relating expertise differences between the groups. These results...

  10. Assessing vegetation structure and ANPP dynamics in a grassland-shrubland Chihuahuan ecotone using NDVI-rainfall relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno-de las Heras, M.; Diaz-Sierra, R.; Turnbull, L.; Wainwright, J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change and the widespread alteration of natural habitats are major drivers of vegetation change in drylands. A classic case of vegetation change is the shrub-encroachment process that has been taking place over the last 150 years in the Chihuahuan Desert, where large areas of grasslands dominated by perennial grass species (black grama, Bouteloua eriopoda, and blue grama, B. gracilis) have transitioned to shrublands dominated by woody species (creosotebush, Larrea tridentata, and mesquite, Prosopis glandulosa), accompanied by accelerated water and wind erosion. Multiple mechanisms drive the shrub-encroachment process, including exogenous triggering factors such as precipitation variations and land-use change, and endogenous amplifying mechanisms brought about by soil erosion-vegetation feedbacks. In this study, simulations of plant biomass dynamics with a simple modelling framework indicate that herbaceous (grasses and forbs) and shrub vegetation in drylands have different responses to antecedent precipitation due to functional differences in plant growth and water-use patterns, and therefore shrub encroachment may be reflected in the analysis of landscape-scale vegetation-rainfall relationships. We analyze the structure and dynamics of vegetation at an 18 km2 grassland-shrubland ecotone in the northern edge of the Chihuahuan Desert (McKenzie Flats, Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge, NM, USA) by investigating the relationship between decade-scale (2000-2013) records of medium-resolution remote sensing of vegetation greenness (MODIS NDVI) and precipitation. Spatial evaluation of NDVI-rainfall relationship at the studied ecotone indicates that herbaceous vegetation shows quick growth pulses associated with short-term (previous 2 months) precipitation, while shrubs show a slow response to medium-term (previous 5 months) precipitation. We use these relationships to (a) classify landscape types as a function of the spatial distribution of dominant vegetation

  11. Short-term mechanisms influencing volumetric brain dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieleman, Nikki; Koek, Huiberdina L.; Hendrikse, Jeroen

    2017-01-01

    With the use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and brain analysis tools, it has become possible to measure brain volume changes up to around 0.5%. Besides long-term brain changes caused by atrophy in aging or neurodegenerative disease, short-term mechanisms that influence brain volume may exist.

  12. Short-term robustness of production management systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Gaury, E.G.A.

    1998-01-01

    Short-term performance of a production management system for make-to-stock factories may be quantified through the service rate per shift; long-term performance through the average monthly work in process (WIP). This may yield, for example, that WIP is minimized, while the probability of the service

  13. Potentials of short term and long term cryopreserved sperm of the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    To service the growing demand for male African giant catfish (Clarias gariepinus) broodstock for aquaculture in Nigeria, and to conserve valuable genetic resources, we improved both short-term (in deep freezer at -35°C) and long-term cryopreservation (in liquid nitrogen at -296°C) of catfish sperm. Catfish sperm ...

  14. Individual stress vulnerability is predicted by short-term memory and AMPA receptor subunit ratio in the hippocampus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidt, Mathias V; Trümbach, Dietrich; Weber, Peter; Wagner, Klaus; Scharf, Sebastian H; Liebl, Claudia; Datson, Nicole; Namendorf, Christian; Gerlach, Tamara; Kühne, Claudia; Uhr, Manfred; Deussing, Jan M; Wurst, Wolfgang; Binder, Elisabeth B; Holsboer, Florian; Müller, Marianne B

    2010-12-15

    Increased vulnerability to aversive experiences is one of the main risk factors for stress-related psychiatric disorders as major depression. However, the molecular bases of vulnerability, on the one hand, and stress resilience, on the other hand, are still not understood. Increasing clinical and preclinical evidence suggests a central involvement of the glutamatergic system in the pathogenesis of major depression. Using a mouse paradigm, modeling increased stress vulnerability and depression-like symptoms in a genetically diverse outbred strain, and we tested the hypothesis that differences in AMPA receptor function may be linked to individual variations in stress vulnerability. Vulnerable and resilient animals differed significantly in their dorsal hippocampal AMPA receptor expression and AMPA receptor binding. Treatment with an AMPA receptor potentiator during the stress exposure prevented the lasting effects of chronic social stress exposure on physiological, neuroendocrine, and behavioral parameters. In addition, spatial short-term memory, an AMPA receptor-dependent behavior, was found to be predictive of individual stress vulnerability and response to AMPA potentiator treatment. Finally, we provide evidence that genetic variations in the AMPA receptor subunit GluR1 are linked to the vulnerable phenotype. Therefore, we propose genetic variations in the AMPA receptor system to shape individual stress vulnerability. Those individual differences can be predicted by the assessment of short-term memory, thereby opening up the possibility for a specific treatment by enhancing AMPA receptor function.

  15. A note on variational multiscale methods for high-contrast heterogeneous porous media flows with rough source terms

    KAUST Repository

    Calo, Victor M.

    2011-09-01

    In this short note, we discuss variational multiscale methods for solving porous media flows in high-contrast heterogeneous media with rough source terms. Our objective is to separate, as much as possible, subgrid effects induced by the media properties from those due to heterogeneous source terms. For this reason, enriched coarse spaces designed for high-contrast multiscale problems are used to represent the effects of heterogeneities of the media. Furthermore, rough source terms are captured via auxiliary correction equations that appear in the formulation of variational multiscale methods [23]. These auxiliary equations are localized and one can use additive or multiplicative constructions for the subgrid corrections as discussed in the current paper. Our preliminary numerical results show that one can capture the effects due to both spatial heterogeneities in the coefficients (such as permeability field) and source terms (e.g., due to singular well terms) in one iteration. We test the cases for both smooth source terms and rough source terms and show that with the multiplicative correction, the numerical approximations are more accurate compared to the additive correction. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  16. Comparing Approaches to Deal With Non-Gaussianity of Rainfall Data in Kriging-Based Radar-Gauge Rainfall Merging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cecinati, F.; Wani, O.; Rico-Ramirez, M. A.

    2017-11-01

    Merging radar and rain gauge rainfall data is a technique used to improve the quality of spatial rainfall estimates and in particular the use of Kriging with External Drift (KED) is a very effective radar-rain gauge rainfall merging technique. However, kriging interpolations assume Gaussianity of the process. Rainfall has a strongly skewed, positive, probability distribution, characterized by a discontinuity due to intermittency. In KED rainfall residuals are used, implicitly calculated as the difference between rain gauge data and a linear function of the radar estimates. Rainfall residuals are non-Gaussian as well. The aim of this work is to evaluate the impact of applying KED to non-Gaussian rainfall residuals, and to assess the best techniques to improve Gaussianity. We compare Box-Cox transformations with λ parameters equal to 0.5, 0.25, and 0.1, Box-Cox with time-variant optimization of λ, normal score transformation, and a singularity analysis technique. The results suggest that Box-Cox with λ = 0.1 and the singularity analysis is not suitable for KED. Normal score transformation and Box-Cox with optimized λ, or λ = 0.25 produce satisfactory results in terms of Gaussianity of the residuals, probability distribution of the merged rainfall products, and rainfall estimate quality, when validated through cross-validation. However, it is observed that Box-Cox transformations are strongly dependent on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall and on the units used for the rainfall intensity. Overall, applying transformations results in a quantitative improvement of the rainfall estimates only if the correct transformations for the specific data set are used.

  17. Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

  18. Motivation and short-term memory in visual search: Attention's accelerator revisited.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schneider, Daniel; Bonmassar, Claudia; Hickey, Clayton

    2018-05-01

    A cue indicating the possibility of cash reward will cause participants to perform memory-based visual search more efficiently. A recent study has suggested that this performance benefit might reflect the use of multiple memory systems: when needed, participants may maintain the to-be-remembered object in both long-term and short-term visual memory, with this redundancy benefitting target identification during search (Reinhart, McClenahan & Woodman, 2016). Here we test this compelling hypothesis. We had participants complete a memory-based visual search task involving a reward cue that either preceded presentation of the to-be-remembered target (pre-cue) or followed it (retro-cue). Following earlier work, we tracked memory representation using two components of the event-related potential (ERP): the contralateral delay activity (CDA), reflecting short-term visual memory, and the anterior P170, reflecting long-term storage. We additionally tracked attentional preparation and deployment in the contingent negative variation (CNV) and N2pc, respectively. Results show that only the reward pre-cue impacted our ERP indices of memory. However, both types of cue elicited a robust CNV, reflecting an influence on task preparation, both had equivalent impact on deployment of attention to the target, as indexed in the N2pc, and both had equivalent impact on visual search behavior. Reward prospect thus has an influence on memory-guided visual search, but this does not appear to be necessarily mediated by a change in the visual memory representations indexed by CDA. Our results demonstrate that the impact of motivation on search is not a simple product of improved memory for target templates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Auditory short-term memory activation during score reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoens, Veerle L; Tervaniemi, Mari

    2013-01-01

    Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG) experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback.

  20. Weather models as virtual sensors to data-driven rainfall predictions in urban watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cozzi, Lorenzo; Galelli, Stefano; Pascal, Samuel Jolivet De Marc; Castelletti, Andrea

    2013-04-01

    Weather and climate predictions are a key element of urban hydrology where they are used to inform water management and assist in flood warning delivering. Indeed, the modelling of the very fast dynamics of urbanized catchments can be substantially improved by the use of weather/rainfall predictions. For example, in Singapore Marina Reservoir catchment runoff processes have a very short time of concentration (roughly one hour) and observational data are thus nearly useless for runoff predictions and weather prediction are required. Unfortunately, radar nowcasting methods do not allow to carrying out long - term weather predictions, whereas numerical models are limited by their coarse spatial scale. Moreover, numerical models are usually poorly reliable because of the fast motion and limited spatial extension of rainfall events. In this study we investigate the combined use of data-driven modelling techniques and weather variables observed/simulated with a numerical model as a way to improve rainfall prediction accuracy and lead time in the Singapore metropolitan area. To explore the feasibility of the approach, we use a Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model as a virtual sensor network for the input variables (the states of the WRF model) to a machine learning rainfall prediction model. More precisely, we combine an input variable selection method and a non-parametric tree-based model to characterize the empirical relation between the rainfall measured at the catchment level and all possible weather input variables provided by WRF model. We explore different lead time to evaluate the model reliability for different long - term predictions, as well as different time lags to see how past information could improve results. Results show that the proposed approach allow a significant improvement of the prediction accuracy of the WRF model on the Singapore urban area.

  1. Short-term and working memory impairments in aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potagas, Constantin; Kasselimis, Dimitrios; Evdokimidis, Ioannis

    2011-08-01

    The aim of the present study is to investigate short-term memory and working memory deficits in aphasics in relation to the severity of their language impairment. Fifty-eight aphasic patients participated in this study. Based on language assessment, an aphasia score was calculated for each patient. Memory was assessed in two modalities, verbal and spatial. Mean scores for all memory tasks were lower than normal. Aphasia score was significantly correlated with performance on all memory tasks. Correlation coefficients for short-term memory and working memory were approximately of the same magnitude. According to our findings, severity of aphasia is related with both verbal and spatial memory deficits. Moreover, while aphasia score correlated with lower scores in both short-term memory and working memory tasks, the lack of substantial difference between corresponding correlation coefficients suggests a possible primary deficit in information retention rather than impairment in working memory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Short-Term Contract Work in Adult Education (I) and (II).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Dorothea; McMath, Patricia

    1986-01-01

    This two-part article discusses short-term project contracts for adult education staff. Part one covers implications of this trend for the service and for the staff involved. Part two looks at short-term contracts from the management viewpoint. (CH)

  3. Short-term Memory of Deep RNN

    OpenAIRE

    Gallicchio, Claudio

    2018-01-01

    The extension of deep learning towards temporal data processing is gaining an increasing research interest. In this paper we investigate the properties of state dynamics developed in successive levels of deep recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in terms of short-term memory abilities. Our results reveal interesting insights that shed light on the nature of layering as a factor of RNN design. Noticeably, higher layers in a hierarchically organized RNN architecture results to be inherently biased ...

  4. Local Analysis Approach for Short Wavelength Geopotential Variations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, P. L.

    2009-12-01

    The value of global spherical harmonic analyses for determining 15 day to 30 day changes in the Earth's gravity field has been demonstrated extensively using data from the GRACE mission and previous missions. However, additional useful information appears to be obtainable from local analyses of the data. A number of such analyses have been carried out by various groups. In the energy approximation, the changes in the height of the satellite altitude geopotential can be determined from the post-fit changes in the satellite separation during individual one-revolution arcs of data from a GRACE-type pair of satellites in a given orbit. For a particular region, it is assumed that short wavelength spatial variations for the arcs crossing that region during a time T of interest would be used to determine corrections to the spherical harmonic results. The main issue in considering higher measurement accuracy in future missions is how much improvement in spatial resolution can be achieved. For this, the shortest wavelengths that can be determined are the most important. And, while the longer wavelength variations are affected by mass distribution changes over much of the globe, the shorter wavelength ones hopefully will be determined mainly by more local changes in the mass distribution. Future missions are expected to have much higher accuracy for measuring changes in the satellite separation than GRACE. However, how large an improvement in the derived results in hydrology will be achieved is still very much a matter of study, particularly because of the effects of uncertainty in the time variations in the atmospheric and oceanic mass distributions. To be specific, it will be assumed that improving the spatial resolution in continental regions away from the coastlines is the objective, and that the satellite altitude is in the range of roughly 290 to 360 km made possible for long missions by drag-free operation. The advantages of putting together the short wavelength

  5. Trends in total rainfall, heavy rain events, and number of dry days in San Juan, Puerto Rico, 1955-2009

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo A. Méndez-Lázaro

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate variability is a threat to water resources on a global scale and in tropical regions in particular. Rainfall events and patterns are associated worldwide with natural disasters like mudslides and landslides, meteorological phenomena like hurricanes, risks/hazards including severe storms and flooding, and health effects like vector-borne and waterborne diseases. Therefore, in the context of global change, research on rainfall patterns and their variations presents a challenge to the scientific community. The main objective of this research was to analyze recent trends in precipitation in the San Juan metropolitan area in Puerto Rico and their relationship with regional and global climate variations. The statistical trend analysis of precipitation was performed with the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. All stations showed positive trends of increasing annual rainfall between 1955 and 2009. The winter months of January and February had an increase in monthly rainfall, although winter is normally a dry season on the island. Regarding dry days, we found an annual decreasing trend, also specifically in winter. In terms of numbers of severe rainfall events described as more than 78 mm in 24 hours, 63 episodes have occurred in the San Juan area in the last decade, specifically in the 2000-2009 time frame, with an average of 6 severe events per year. The majority of the episodes occurred in summer, more frequently in August and September. These results can be seen as a clear example of the complexity of spatial and temporal of rainfall distribution over a tropical city.

  6. One year of continuous measurements of soil CH4 and CO2 fluxes in a Japanese cypress forest: Temporal and spatial variations associated with Asian monsoon rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    Sakabe, Ayaka; Kosugi, Yoshiko; Takahashi, Kenshi; Itoh, Masayuki; Kanazawa, Akito; Makita, Naoki; Ataka, Mioko

    2015-01-01

    We examined the effects of Asian monsoon rainfall on CH[4] absorption of water-unsaturated forest soil. We conducted a 1 year continuous measurement of soil CH[4] and CO[2] fluxes with automated chamber systems in three plots with different soil characteristics and water content to investigate how temporal variations in CH[4] fluxes vary with the soil environment. CH[4] absorption was reduced by the “Baiu” summer rainfall event and peaked during the subsequent hot, dry period. Although CH[4] ...

  7. Cardioprotective Signature of Short-Term Caloric Restriction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Noyan

    Full Text Available To understand the molecular pathways underlying the cardiac preconditioning effect of short-term caloric restriction (CR.Lifelong CR has been suggested to reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease through a variety of mechanisms. However, prolonged adherence to a CR life-style is difficult. Here we reveal the pathways that are modulated by short-term CR, which are associated with protection of the mouse heart from ischemia.Male 10-12 wk old C57bl/6 mice were randomly assigned to an ad libitum (AL diet with free access to regular chow, or CR, receiving 30% less food for 7 days (d, prior to myocardial infarction (MI via permanent coronary ligation. At d8, the left ventricles (LV of AL and CR mice were collected for Western blot, mRNA and microRNA (miR analyses to identify cardioprotective gene expression signatures. In separate groups, infarct size, cardiac hemodynamics and protein abundance of caspase 3 was measured at d2 post-MI.This short-term model of CR was associated with cardio-protection, as evidenced by decreased infarct size (18.5±2.4% vs. 26.6±1.7%, N=10/group; P=0.01. mRNA and miR profiles pre-MI (N=5/group identified genes modulated by short-term CR to be associated with circadian clock, oxidative stress, immune function, apoptosis, metabolism, angiogenesis, cytoskeleton and extracellular matrix (ECM. Western blots pre-MI revealed CR-associated increases in phosphorylated Akt and GSK3ß, reduced levels of phosphorylated AMPK and mitochondrial related proteins PGC-1α, cytochrome C and cyclooxygenase (COX IV, with no differences in the levels of phosphorylated eNOS or MAPK (ERK1/2; p38. CR regimen was also associated with reduced protein abundance of cleaved caspase 3 in the infarcted heart and improved cardiac function.

  8. The spatial return level of aggregated hourly extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaffie, Mardhiyyah; Eli, Annazirin; Wan Zin, Wan Zawiah; Jemain, Abdul Aziz

    2015-07-01

    This paper is intended to ascertain the spatial pattern of extreme rainfall distribution in Peninsular Malaysia at several short time intervals, i.e., on hourly basis. Motivation of this research is due to historical records of extreme rainfall in Peninsular Malaysia, whereby many hydrological disasters at this region occur within a short time period. The hourly periods considered are 1, 2, 3, 6, 12, and 24 h. Many previous hydrological studies dealt with daily rainfall data; thus, this study enables comparison to be made on the estimated performances between daily and hourly rainfall data analyses so as to identify the impact of extreme rainfall at a shorter time scale. Return levels based on the time aggregate considered are also computed. Parameter estimation using L-moment method for four probability distributions, namely, the generalized extreme value (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), and Pearson type III (PE3) distributions were conducted. Aided with the L-moment diagram test and mean square error (MSE) test, GLO was found to be the most appropriate distribution to represent the extreme rainfall data. At most time intervals (10, 50, and 100 years), the spatial patterns revealed that the rainfall distribution across the peninsula differ for 1- and 24-h extreme rainfalls. The outcomes of this study would provide additional information regarding patterns of extreme rainfall in Malaysia which may not be detected when considering only a higher time scale such as daily; thus, appropriate measures for shorter time scales of extreme rainfall can be planned. The implementation of such measures would be beneficial to the authorities to reduce the impact of any disastrous natural event.

  9. The stability of the international oil trade network from short-term and long-term perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qingru; Gao, Xiangyun; Zhong, Weiqiong; Liu, Nairong

    2017-09-01

    To examine the stability of the international oil trade network and explore the influence of countries and trade relationships on the trade stability, we construct weighted and unweighted international oil trade networks based on complex network theory using oil trading data between countries from 1996 to 2014. We analyze the stability of international oil trade network (IOTN) from short-term and long-term aspects. From the short-term perspective, we find that the trade volumes play an important role on the stability. Moreover, the weighted IOTN is stable; however, the unweighted networks can better reflect the actual evolution of IOTN. From the long-term perspective, we identify trade relationships that are maintained during the whole sample period to reveal the situation of the whole international oil trade. We provide a way to quantitatively measure the stability of complex network from short-term and long-term perspectives, which can be applied to measure and analyze trade stability of other goods or services.

  10. Dissociating Measures of Consciousness from Measures of Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik; Ásgeirsson, Árni Gunnar; Staugaard, Camilla Funch

    Often, the contents of consciousness are equated with the contents of short-term memory (or working memory), sometimes to a point where they are treated as identical entities. In the present study we aimed to investigate whether they may be modulated independently and thus dissociated from each...... if conscious content simply can be reduced to a cognitive process like short-term memory. In two experiments, we combined two different measures of short-term memory capacity to investigate how manipulations of set-size affect performance in observers with the Perceptual Awareness Scale (PAS) to measure...... conscious experience of the stimulus in every trial (Ramsøy & Overgaard, 2004; Overgaard & Sørensen, 2004). We trained observers to report their experience of a visual target stimulus on the four-point PAS scale; ranging from “no experience” to “clear experience”. To measure short-term memory we used...

  11. Duration-frequency relationships of heavy rainfall in Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to adjust equations that establish relationships between rainfall events with different duration and data from weather stations in the state of Santa Catarina, Brazil. In this study, the relationships between different duration heavy rainfalls from 13 weather stations of Santa Catarina were analyzed. From series of maximum annual rainfalls, and using the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall for durations between 5 min and 24 h were estimated considering return periods from 2 to 100 years. The data fit to the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test at 5 % significance. The coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted to estimate the relationship between rainfall duration t (min and the return period T (y in relation to the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 hour and a 10 year return period. Likewise, the coefficients of Bell's equation were adjusted based on the maximum rainfall with a duration of 1 day and a 10 year return period. The results showed that these relationships are viable to estimate short-duration rainfall events at locations where there are no rainfall records.

  12. Applicability of short-term accelerated biofouling studies to predict long-term biofouling accumulation in reverse osmosis membrane systems

    KAUST Repository

    Sanawar, Huma

    2018-02-02

    Biofouling studies addressing biofouling control are mostly executed in short-term studies. It is unclear whether data collected from these experiments are representative for long-term biofouling as occurring in full-scale membrane systems. This study investigated whether short-term biofouling studies accelerated by biodegradable nutrient dosage to feed water were predictive for long-term biofouling development without nutrient dosage. Since the presence of a feed spacer has an strong effect on the degree of biofouling, this study employed six geometrically different feed spacers. Membrane fouling simulators (MFSs) were operated with the same (i) membrane, (ii) feed flow and (iii) feed water, but with feed spacers varying in geometry. For the short-term experiment, biofilm formation was enhanced by nutrient dosage to the MFS feed water, whereas no nutrient dosage was applied in the long-term experiment. Pressure drop development was monitored to characterize the extent of biofouling, while the accumulated viable biomass content at the end of the experimental run was quantified by adenosine triphosphate (ATP) measurements. Impact of feed spacer geometry on biofouling was compared for the short-term and long-term biofouling study. The results of the study revealed that the feed spacers exhibited the same biofouling behavior for (i) the short-term (9-d) study with nutrient dosage and (ii) the long-term (96-d) study without nutrient dosage. For the six different feed spacers, the accumulated viable biomass content (pg ATP.cm) was roughly the same, but the biofouling impact in terms of pressure drop increase in time was significantly different. The biofouling impact ranking of the six feed spacers was the same for the short-term and long-term biofouling studies. Therefore, it can be concluded that short-term accelerated biofouling studies in MFSs are a representative and suitable approach for the prediction of biofouling in membrane filtration systems after long-term

  13. Derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide in Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caracciolo, Domenico; Arnone, Elisa; Noto, Leonardo V.

    2015-04-01

    Rainfall is the primary trigger of shallow landslides that can cause fatalities, damage to properties and economic losses in many areas of the world. For this reason, determining the rainfall amount/intensity responsible for landslide occurrence is important, and may contribute to mitigate the related risk and save lives. Efforts have been made in different countries to investigate triggering conditions in order to define landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds. The rainfall thresholds are generally described by a functional relationship of power in terms of cumulated or intensity event rainfall-duration, whose parameters are estimated empirically from the analysis of historical rainfall events that triggered landslides. The aim of this paper is the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds for landslide occurrence in Sicily, southern Italy, by focusing particularly on the role of the antecedent wet conditions. The creation of the appropriate landslide-rainfall database likely represents one of main efforts in this type of analysis. For this work, historical landslide events occurred in Sicily from 1919 to 2001 were selected from the archive of the Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, developed under the project Aree Vulnerabili Italiane. The corresponding triggering precipitations were screened from the raingauges network in Sicily, maintained by the Osservatorio delle Acque - Agenzia Regionale per i Rifiuti e le Acque. In particular, a detailed analysis was carried out to identify and reconstruct the hourly rainfall events that caused the selected landslides. A bootstrapping statistical technique has been used to determine the uncertainties associated with the threshold parameters. The rainfall thresholds at different exceedance probability levels, from 1% to 10%, were defined in terms of cumulated event rainfall, E, and rainfall duration, D. The role of rainfall prior to the damaging events was taken into account by including in the analysis

  14. Short-term fasting alters cytochrome P450-mediated drug metabolism in humans

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lammers, Laureen A.; Achterbergh, Roos; de Vries, Emmely M.; van Nierop, F. Samuel; Klümpen, Heinz-Josef; Soeters, Maarten R.; Boelen, Anita; Romijn, Johannes A.; Mathôt, Ron A. A.

    2015-01-01

    Experimental studies indicate that short-term fasting alters drug metabolism. However, the effects of short-term fasting on drug metabolism in humans need further investigation. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of short-term fasting (36 h) on P450-mediated drug

  15. Long term high resolution rainfall runoff observations for improved water balance uncertainty and database QA-QC in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitew, M. M.; Goodrich, D. C.; Demaria, E.; Heilman, P.; Kautz, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Walnut Gulch is a semi-arid environment experimental watershed and Long Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) site managed by USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center for which high-resolution long-term hydro-climatic data are available across its 150 km2 drainage area. In this study, we present the analysis of 50 years of continuous hourly rainfall data to evaluate runoff control and generation processes for improving the QA-QC plans of Walnut Gulch to create high-quality data set that is critical for reducing water balance uncertainties. Multiple linear regression models were developed to relate rainfall properties, runoff characteristics and watershed properties. The rainfall properties were summarized to event based total depth, maximum intensity, duration, the location of the storm center with respect to the outlet, and storm size normalized to watershed area. We evaluated the interaction between the runoff and rainfall and runoff as antecedent moisture condition (AMC), antecedent runoff condition (ARC) and, runoff depth and duration for each rainfall events. We summarized each of the watershed properties such as contributing area, slope, shape, channel length, stream density, channel flow area, and percent of the area of retention stock ponds for each of the nested catchments in Walnut Gulch. The evaluation of the model using basic and categorical statistics showed good predictive skill throughout the watersheds. The model produced correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4-0.94, Nash efficiency coefficients up to 0.77, and Kling-Gupta coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.98. The model predicted 92% of all runoff generations and 98% of no-runoff across all sub-watersheds in Walnut Gulch. The regression model also indicated good potential to complement the QA-QC procedures in place for Walnut Gulch dataset publications developed over the years since the 1960s through identification of inconsistencies in rainfall and runoff relations.

  16. From TRMM to GPM: How well can heavy rainfall be detected from space?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prakash, Satya; Mitra, Ashis K.; Pai, D. S.; AghaKouchak, Amir

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we investigate the capabilities of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and the recently released Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) in detecting and estimating heavy rainfall across India. First, the study analyzes TMPA data products over a 17-year period (1998-2014). While TMPA and reference gauge-based observations show similar mean monthly variations of conditional heavy rainfall events, the multi-satellite product systematically overestimates its inter-annual variations. Categorical as well as volumetric skill scores reveal that TMPA over-detects heavy rainfall events (above 75th percentile of reference data), but it shows reasonable performance in capturing the volume of heavy rain across the country. An initial assessment of the GPM-based multi-satellite IMERG precipitation estimates for the southwest monsoon season shows notable improvements over TMPA in capturing heavy rainfall over India. The recently released IMERG shows promising results to help improve modeling of hydrological extremes (e.g., floods and landslides) using satellite observations.

  17. Spatial and Temporal Variability of Rainfall in the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal Himalaya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeban Panthi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Landslides, floods, and droughts are recurring natural disasters in Nepal related to too much or too little water. The summer monsoon contributes more than 80% of annual rainfall, and rainfall spatial and inter-annual variation is very high. The Gandaki River, one of the three major rivers of Nepal and one of the major tributaries of the Ganges River, covers all agro-ecological zones in the central part of Nepal. Time series tests were applied for different agro-ecological zones of the Gandaki River Basin (GRB for rainfall trends of four seasons (pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter from 1981 to 2012. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen’s methods were used to determine the trends. Decadal anomalies relative to the long-term average were analyzed using the APHRODITE precipitation product. Trends in number of rainy days and timing of the monsoon were also analyzed. We found that the post-monsoon, pre-monsoon and winter rainfalls are decreasing significantly in most of the zones but monsoon rainfall is increasing throughout the basin. In the hill region, the annual rainfall is increasing but the rainy days do not show any trend. There is a tendency toward later departure of monsoon from Nepal, indicating an increase in its duration. These seasonally and topographically variable trends may have significant impacts for the agriculture and livestock smallholders that form the majority of the population in the GRB.

  18. Short period tidal variations of earth rotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoder, C. F.; Williams, J. G.; Parke, M. E.; Dickey, J. O.

    1981-01-01

    It is explained that the tidal deformation of the earth's polar moment of inertia by the moon and sun cause periodic variations in rotation. The short period oscillations give rise to a meter-sized, diurnal signature in the lunar laser ranging data obtained at McDonald Observatory. A solution is given for the scale parameter k/C at fortnightly and monthly tidal frequencies. The results are compared with those obtained by other investigators and with a theoretical estimate which includes the effect of oceans and a decoupled fluid core.

  19. Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  20. Effects of long- and short-term management on the functional structure of meadows through species turnover and intraspecific trait variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volf, Martin; Redmond, Conor; Albert, Ágnes J; Le Bagousse-Pinguet, Yoann; Biella, Paolo; Götzenberger, Lars; Hrázský, Záboj; Janeček, Štěpán; Klimešová, Jitka; Lepš, Jan; Šebelíková, Lenka; Vlasatá, Tereza; de Bello, Francesco

    2016-04-01

    The functional structures of communities respond to environmental changes by both species replacement (turnover) and within-species variation (intraspecific trait variability; ITV). Evidence is lacking on the relative importance of these two components, particularly in response to both short- and long-term environmental disturbance. We hypothesized that such short- and long-term perturbations would induce changes in community functional structure primarily via ITV and turnover, respectively. To test this we applied an experimental design across long-term mown and abandoned meadows, with each plot containing a further level of short-term management treatments: mowing, grazing and abandonment. Within each plot, species composition and trait values [height, shoot biomass, and specific leaf area (SLA)] were recorded on up to five individuals per species. Positive covariations between the contribution of species turnover and ITV occurred for height and shoot biomass in response to both short- and long-term management, indicating that species turnover and intraspecific adjustments selected for similar trait values. Positive covariations also occurred for SLA, but only in response to long-term management. The contributions of turnover and ITV changed depending on both the trait and management trajectory. As expected, communities responded to short-term disturbances mostly through changes in intraspecific trait variability, particularly for height and biomass. Interestingly, for SLA they responded to long-term disturbances by both species turnover and intraspecific adjustments. These findings highlight the importance of both ITV and species turnover in adjusting grassland functional trait response to environmental perturbation, and show that the response is trait specific and affected by disturbance regime history.

  1. Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmed El Hachemi Mazighi

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders Of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long- term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries. (author)

  2. Holding multiple items in short term memory: a neural mechanism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmund T Rolls

    Full Text Available Human short term memory has a capacity of several items maintained simultaneously. We show how the number of short term memory representations that an attractor network modeling a cortical local network can simultaneously maintain active is increased by using synaptic facilitation of the type found in the prefrontal cortex. We have been able to maintain 9 short term memories active simultaneously in integrate-and-fire simulations where the proportion of neurons in each population, the sparseness, is 0.1, and have confirmed the stability of such a system with mean field analyses. Without synaptic facilitation the system can maintain many fewer memories active in the same network. The system operates because of the effectively increased synaptic strengths formed by the synaptic facilitation just for those pools to which the cue is applied, and then maintenance of this synaptic facilitation in just those pools when the cue is removed by the continuing neuronal firing in those pools. The findings have implications for understanding how several items can be maintained simultaneously in short term memory, how this may be relevant to the implementation of language in the brain, and suggest new approaches to understanding and treating the decline in short term memory that can occur with normal aging.

  3. Holding multiple items in short term memory: a neural mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolls, Edmund T; Dempere-Marco, Laura; Deco, Gustavo

    2013-01-01

    Human short term memory has a capacity of several items maintained simultaneously. We show how the number of short term memory representations that an attractor network modeling a cortical local network can simultaneously maintain active is increased by using synaptic facilitation of the type found in the prefrontal cortex. We have been able to maintain 9 short term memories active simultaneously in integrate-and-fire simulations where the proportion of neurons in each population, the sparseness, is 0.1, and have confirmed the stability of such a system with mean field analyses. Without synaptic facilitation the system can maintain many fewer memories active in the same network. The system operates because of the effectively increased synaptic strengths formed by the synaptic facilitation just for those pools to which the cue is applied, and then maintenance of this synaptic facilitation in just those pools when the cue is removed by the continuing neuronal firing in those pools. The findings have implications for understanding how several items can be maintained simultaneously in short term memory, how this may be relevant to the implementation of language in the brain, and suggest new approaches to understanding and treating the decline in short term memory that can occur with normal aging.

  4. Holding Multiple Items in Short Term Memory: A Neural Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolls, Edmund T.; Dempere-Marco, Laura; Deco, Gustavo

    2013-01-01

    Human short term memory has a capacity of several items maintained simultaneously. We show how the number of short term memory representations that an attractor network modeling a cortical local network can simultaneously maintain active is increased by using synaptic facilitation of the type found in the prefrontal cortex. We have been able to maintain 9 short term memories active simultaneously in integrate-and-fire simulations where the proportion of neurons in each population, the sparseness, is 0.1, and have confirmed the stability of such a system with mean field analyses. Without synaptic facilitation the system can maintain many fewer memories active in the same network. The system operates because of the effectively increased synaptic strengths formed by the synaptic facilitation just for those pools to which the cue is applied, and then maintenance of this synaptic facilitation in just those pools when the cue is removed by the continuing neuronal firing in those pools. The findings have implications for understanding how several items can be maintained simultaneously in short term memory, how this may be relevant to the implementation of language in the brain, and suggest new approaches to understanding and treating the decline in short term memory that can occur with normal aging. PMID:23613789

  5. Qualitative similarities in the visual short-term memory of pigeons and people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Brett; Wasserman, Edward; Luck, Steven J

    2011-10-01

    Visual short-term memory plays a key role in guiding behavior, and individual differences in visual short-term memory capacity are strongly predictive of higher cognitive abilities. To provide a broader evolutionary context for understanding this memory system, we directly compared the behavior of pigeons and humans on a change detection task. Although pigeons had a lower storage capacity and a higher lapse rate than humans, both species stored multiple items in short-term memory and conformed to the same basic performance model. Thus, despite their very different evolutionary histories and neural architectures, pigeons and humans have functionally similar visual short-term memory systems, suggesting that the functional properties of visual short-term memory are subject to similar selective pressures across these distant species.

  6. Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall in Belgium based on radar estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Goudenhoofdt

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In Belgium, only rain gauge time series have been used so far to study extreme rainfall at a given location. In this paper, the potential of a 12-year quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE from a single weather radar is evaluated. For the period 2005–2016, 1 and 24 h rainfall extremes from automatic rain gauges and collocated radar estimates are compared. The peak intensities are fitted to the exponential distribution using regression in Q-Q plots with a threshold rank which minimises the mean squared error. A basic radar product used as reference exhibits unrealistic high extremes and is not suitable for extreme value analysis. For 24 h rainfall extremes, which occur partly in winter, the radar-based QPE needs a bias correction. A few missing events are caused by the wind drift associated with convective cells and strong radar signal attenuation. Differences between radar and gauge rainfall values are caused by spatial and temporal sampling, gauge underestimations and radar errors. Nonetheless the fit to the QPE data is within the confidence interval of the gauge fit, which remains large due to the short study period. A regional frequency analysis for 1 h duration is performed at the locations of four gauges with 1965–2008 records using the spatially independent QPE data in a circle of 20 km. The confidence interval of the radar fit, which is small due to the sample size, contains the gauge fit for the two closest stations from the radar. In Brussels, the radar extremes are significantly higher than the gauge rainfall extremes, but similar to those observed by an automatic gauge during the same period. The extreme statistics exhibit slight variations related to topography. The radar-based extreme value analysis can be extended to other durations.

  7. Decadal features of heavy rainfall events in eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huopo; Sun, Jianqi; Fan, Ke

    2012-06-01

    Based on daily precipitation data, the spatial-temporal features of heavy rainfall events (HREs) during 1960-2009 are investigated. The results indicate that the HREs experienced strong decadal variability in the past 50 years, and the decadal features varied across regions. More HRE days are observed in the 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s over Northeast China (NEC); in the 1960s, 1970s, and 1990s over North China (NC); in the early 1960s, 1980s, and 2000s over the Huaihe River basin (HR); in the 1970s-1990s over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley (YR); and in the 1970s and 1990s over South China (SC). These decadal changes of HRE days in eastern China are closely associated with the decadal variations of water content and stratification stability of the local atmosphere. The intensity of HREs in each sub-region is also characterized by strong decadal variability. The HRE intensity and frequency co-vary on the long-term trend, and show consistent variability over NEC, NC, and YR, but inconsistent variability over SC and HR. Further analysis of the relationships between the annual rainfall and HRE frequency as well as intensity indicates that the HRE frequency is the major contributor to the total rainfall variability in eastern China, while the HRE intensity shows only relative weak contribution.

  8. Effect of spatiotemporal variation of rainfall on dissolved oxygen depletion in integrated catchment studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moreno Rodenas, A.M.; Cecinati, F.; ten Veldhuis, J.A.E.; Langeveld, J.G.; Clemens, F.H.L.R.

    2016-01-01

    This study addresses the effect of spatial and temporal resolution of rainfall fields on the performance of a simplified integrated catchment model for predicting dissolved oxygen concentrations in a river. For that purpose we propose a procedure to generate rainfall products with increasing spatial

  9. Short-term hydropower production planning by stochastic programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleten, Stein-Erik; Kristoffersen, Trine

    2008-01-01

    -term production planning a matter of spatial distribution among the reservoirs of the plant. Day-ahead market prices and reservoir inflows are, however, uncertain beyond the current operation day and water must be allocated among the reservoirs in order to strike a balance between current profits and expected......Within the framework of multi-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic programming we develop a short-term production plan for a price-taking hydropower plant operating under uncertainty. Current production must comply with the day-ahead commitments of the previous day which makes short...

  10. Some risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazighi, Ahmed El Hachemi

    2004-01-01

    Traditionally guided by long-term contracts, the international natural gas trade is experiencing new methods of operating, based on the short term and more flexibility. Today, indeed, the existence of uncommitted quantities of natural gas, combined with gas price discrepancies among different regions of the world, gives room for the expansion of the spot-trading of gas. The main objective of this paper is to discuss three fundamental risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas: volume risk, price risk and infrastructure risk. The defenders of globalisation argue that the transition from the long-term to the short-term trading of natural gas is mainly a question of access to gas reserves, decreasing costs of gas liquefaction, the building of liquefied natural gas (LNG) fleets and regasification facilities and third-party access to the infrastructure. This process needs to be as short as possible, so that the risks related to the transition process will disappear rapidly. On the other hand, the detractors of globalisation put the emphasis on the complexity of the gas value chain and on the fact that eliminating long-term contracts increases the risks inherent to the international natural gas business. In this paper, we try to untangle and assess the risks related to the short-term trading of natural gas. Our main conclusions are: the short-term trading of gas is far from riskless; volume risk requires stock-building in both consuming and producing countries; price risk, through the high volatility for gas, induces an increase in options prices; there is no evidence to suggest that money-lenders' appetite for financing gas infrastructure projects will continue in a short-term trading system. This would be a threat to consumers' security of supply. (Author)

  11. Short-term Mobility and Increased Partnership Concurrency among Men in Zimbabwe.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan Cassels

    Full Text Available Migration has long been understood as an underlying factor for HIV transmission, and sexual partner concurrency has been increasingly studied as an important component of HIV transmission dynamics. However, less work has examined the role of short-term mobility in sexual partner concurrency using a network approach. Short-term mobility may be a risk for HIV for the migrant's partner as well either through the partner's risk behaviors while the migrant is away, such as the partner having additional partners, or via exposure to the return migrant.Using data from the 2010-11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey, weighted generalized linear regression models were used to investigate the associations between short-term mobility and partnership concurrency at the individual and partnership levels.At the individual level, we find strong evidence of an association between short-term mobility and concurrency. Men who traveled were more likely to have concurrent partnerships compared to men who did not travel and the relationship was non-linear: each trip was associated with a 2% higher probability of concurrency, with a diminishing risk at 60 trips (p<0.001. At the partnership level, short-term mobility by the male only or both partners was associated with male concurrency. Couples in which the female only traveled exhibited less male concurrency.Short-term mobility has the ability to impact population-level transmission dynamics by facilitating partnership concurrency and thus onward HIV transmission. Short-term migrants may be an important population to target for HIV testing, treatment, or social and behavioral interventions to prevent the spread of HIV.

  12. Short-term and long-term effects of violent media on aggression in children and adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bushman, Brad J; Huesmann, L Rowell

    2006-04-01

    To test whether the results of the accumulated studies on media violence and aggressive behavior are consistent with the theories that have evolved to explain the effects. We tested for the existence of both short-term and long-term effects for aggressive behavior. We also tested the theory-driven hypothesis that short-term effects should be greater for adults and long-term effects should be greater for children. Meta-analysis. Children younger than 18 years and adults. Violent media, including TV, movies, video games, music, and comic books. Measures of aggressive behavior, aggressive thoughts, angry feelings, physiological arousal (eg, heart rate, blood pressure), and helping behavior. Effect size estimates were combined using meta-analytic procedures. As expected, the short-term effects of violent media were greater for adults than for children whereas the long-term effects were greater for children than for adults. The results also showed that there were overall modest but significant effect sizes for exposure to media violence on aggressive behaviors, aggressive thoughts, angry feelings, arousal levels, and helping behavior. The results are consistent with the theory that short-term effects are mostly due to the priming of existing well-encoded scripts, schemas, or beliefs, which adults have had more time to encode. In contrast, long-term effects require the learning (encoding) of scripts, schemas, or beliefs. Children can encode new scripts, schemas, and beliefs via observational learning with less interference and effort than adults.

  13. Recent trends in rainfall and temperature over North West India during 1871-2016

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saxena, Rani; Mathur, Prasoon

    2018-03-01

    Rainfall and temperature are the most important environmental factors influencing crop growth, development, and yield. The northwestern (NW) part of India is one of the main regions of food grain production of the country. It comprises of six meteorological subdivisions (Haryana, Punjab, West Rajasthan, East Rajasthan, Gujarat and Saurashtra, Kutch and Diu). In this study, attempts were made to study variability and trends in rainfall and temperature during 30-year climate normal periods (CN) and 10-year decadal excess or deficit rainfall frequency during the historical period from 1871 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rank correlation (Spearman's rho) tests were used to determine significance of trends. Least square linear fitting method was adopted to find out the slopes of the trend lines. The long-term mean annual rainfall over North West India is 587.7 mm (standard deviation of 153.0 mm and coefficient of variation 26.0). There was increasing trend in minimum and maximum temperatures during post monsoon season in entire study period and current climate normal period (1991-2016) due to which the sowing of rabi season crops may be delayed and there may be germination problem too. There was a non-significant decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season and an increasing trend in rainfall during post monsoon over North West India during entire study period. During current CN5 (1991-2016), all the subdivision (except the Saurashtra region) showed a decreasing trend in rainfall during monsoon season which is a matter of concern for kharif crops and those rabi crops which are grown as rainfed on conserved soil moisture. The decadal annual and seasonal frequencies of excess and deficit years results revealed that the annual total deficit rainfall years (24) exceeded total excess rainfall years (22) in North West India during the entire study period. While during the current decadal period (2011 to 2016), single year was the excess year and 2 years were

  14. Does exposure to GSM 900 MHz mobile phone radiation affect short-term memory of elementary school students?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Movvahedi, M M; Tavakkoli-Golpayegani, A; Mortazavi, S A R; Haghani, M; Razi, Z; Shojaie-Fard, M B; Zare, M; Mina, E; Mansourabadi, L; Nazari-Jahromi; Safari, A; Shokrpour, N; Mortazavi, S M J

    2014-05-01

    Now-a-days, children are exposed to mobile phone radiation at a very early age. We have previously shown that a large proportion of children in the city of Shiraz, Iran use mobile phones. Furthermore, we have indicated that the visual reaction time (VRT) of university students was significantly affected by a 10 min real/sham exposure to electromagnetic fields emitted by mobile phone. We found that these exposures decreased the reaction time which might lead to a better response to different hazards. We have also revealed that occupational exposures to radar radiations decreased the reaction time in radar workers. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether short-term exposure of elementary school students to radiofrequency (RF) radiation leads to changes in their reaction time and short-term memory. A total of 60 elementary school children ages ranging from 8 to 10 years studying at a public elementary school in Shiraz, Iran were enrolled in this study. Standardized computer-based tests of VRT and short-term memory (modified for children) were administered. The students were asked to perform some preliminary tests for orientation with the VRT test. After orientation, to reduce the random variation of measurements, each test was repeated ten times in both real and sham exposure phases. The time interval between the two subsequent sham and real exposure phases was 30 min. The mean ± standard deviation reaction times after a 10 min talk period and after a 10 min sham exposure (switched off mobile) period were 249.0 ± 82.3 ms and 252.9 ± 68.2 ms (P = 0.629), respectively. On the other hand, the mean short-term memory scores after the talk and sham exposure periods were 1062.60 ± 305.39, and 1003.84 ± 339.68 (P = 0.030), respectively. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to show that short-term exposure of elementary school students to RF radiation leads to the better performance of their short-term memory.

  15. Independence of long-term contextual memory and short-term perceptual hypotheses: Evidence from contextual cueing of interrupted search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlagbauer, Bernhard; Mink, Maurice; Müller, Hermann J; Geyer, Thomas

    2017-02-01

    Observers are able to resume an interrupted search trial faster relative to responding to a new, unseen display. This finding of rapid resumption is attributed to short-term perceptual hypotheses generated on the current look and confirmed upon subsequent looks at the same display. It has been suggested that the contents of perceptual hypotheses are similar to those of other forms of memory acquired long-term through repeated exposure to the same search displays over the course of several trials, that is, the memory supporting "contextual cueing." In three experiments, we investigated the relationship between short-term perceptual hypotheses and long-term contextual memory. The results indicated that long-term, contextual memory of repeated displays neither affected the generation nor the confirmation of short-term perceptual hypotheses for these displays. Furthermore, the analysis of eye movements suggests that long-term memory provides an initial benefit in guiding attention to the target, whereas in subsequent looks guidance is entirely based on short-term perceptual hypotheses. Overall, the results reveal a picture of both long- and short-term memory contributing to reliable performance gains in interrupted search, while exerting their effects in an independent manner.

  16. Questioning short-term memory and its measurement: Why digit span measures long-term associative learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gary; Macken, Bill

    2015-11-01

    Traditional accounts of verbal short-term memory explain differences in performance for different types of verbal material by reference to inherent characteristics of the verbal items making up memory sequences. The role of previous experience with sequences of different types is ostensibly controlled for either by deliberate exclusion or by presenting multiple trials constructed from different random permutations. We cast doubt on this general approach in a detailed analysis of the basis for the robust finding that short-term memory for digit sequences is superior to that for other sequences of verbal material. Specifically, we show across four experiments that this advantage is not due to inherent characteristics of digits as verbal items, nor are individual digits within sequences better remembered than other types of individual verbal items. Rather, the advantage for digit sequences stems from the increased frequency, compared to other verbal material, with which digits appear in random sequences in natural language, and furthermore, relatively frequent digit sequences support better short-term serial recall than less frequent ones. We also provide corpus-based computational support for the argument that performance in a short-term memory setting is a function of basic associative learning processes operating on the linguistic experience of the rememberer. The experimental and computational results raise questions not only about the role played by measurement of digit span in cognition generally, but also about the way in which long-term memory processes impact on short-term memory functioning. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Ordered Short-Term Memory Differs in Signers and Speakers: Implications for Models of Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers ([Boutla, M., Supalla, T., Newport, E. L., & Bavelier, D.…

  18. Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Rodriguez, Eduardo

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the auto-correlations of international crude oil prices on the basis of the estimation of the Hurst exponent dynamics for returns over the period from 1987 to 2007. In doing so, a model-free statistical approach - detrended fluctuation analysis - that reduces the effects of non-stationary market trends and focuses on the intrinsic auto-correlation structure of market fluctuations over different time horizons, is used. Tests for time variations of the Hurst exponent indicate that over long horizons the crude oil market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, meaningful auto-correlations cannot be excluded for time horizons smaller than one month where the Hurst exponent manifests cyclic, non-periodic dynamics. This means that the market exhibits a time-varying short-term inefficient behavior that becomes efficient in the long term. The proposed methodology and its findings are put in perspective with previous studies and results. (author)

  19. Pigeon visual short-term memory directly compared to primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Anthony A; Elmore, L Caitlin

    2016-02-01

    Three pigeons were trained to remember arrays of 2-6 colored squares and detect which of two squares had changed color to test their visual short-term memory. Procedures (e.g., stimuli, displays, viewing times, delays) were similar to those used to test monkeys and humans. Following extensive training, pigeons performed slightly better than similarly trained monkeys, but both animal species were considerably less accurate than humans with the same array sizes (2, 4 and 6 items). Pigeons and monkeys showed calculated memory capacities of one item or less, whereas humans showed a memory capacity of 2.5 items. Despite the differences in calculated memory capacities, the pigeons' memory results, like those from monkeys and humans, were all well characterized by an inverse power-law function fit to d' values for the five display sizes. This characterization provides a simple, straightforward summary of the fundamental processing of visual short-term memory (how visual short-term memory declines with memory load) that emphasizes species similarities based upon similar functional relationships. By closely matching pigeon testing parameters to those of monkeys and humans, these similar functional relationships suggest similar underlying processes of visual short-term memory in pigeons, monkeys and humans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-08-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1992 through the fourth quarter of 1993. Values for the second quarter of 1992, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

  1. Auditory-Cortex Short-Term Plasticity Induced by Selective Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jääskeläinen, Iiro P.; Ahveninen, Jyrki

    2014-01-01

    The ability to concentrate on relevant sounds in the acoustic environment is crucial for everyday function and communication. Converging lines of evidence suggests that transient functional changes in auditory-cortex neurons, “short-term plasticity”, might explain this fundamental function. Under conditions of strongly focused attention, enhanced processing of attended sounds can take place at very early latencies (~50 ms from sound onset) in primary auditory cortex and possibly even at earlier latencies in subcortical structures. More robust selective-attention short-term plasticity is manifested as modulation of responses peaking at ~100 ms from sound onset in functionally specialized nonprimary auditory-cortical areas by way of stimulus-specific reshaping of neuronal receptive fields that supports filtering of selectively attended sound features from task-irrelevant ones. Such effects have been shown to take effect in ~seconds following shifting of attentional focus. There are findings suggesting that the reshaping of neuronal receptive fields is even stronger at longer auditory-cortex response latencies (~300 ms from sound onset). These longer-latency short-term plasticity effects seem to build up more gradually, within tens of seconds after shifting the focus of attention. Importantly, some of the auditory-cortical short-term plasticity effects observed during selective attention predict enhancements in behaviorally measured sound discrimination performance. PMID:24551458

  2. Short-Term Effects of Midseason Coach Turnover on Team Performance in Soccer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balduck, Anne-Line; Buelens, Marc; Philippaerts, Renaat

    2010-01-01

    The present study addressed the issue of short-term performance effects of midseason coach turnover in soccer. The goal of this study was to examine this effect on subsequent short-term team performance. The purposes of this study were to (a) examine whether midseason coach turnover improved results in the short term, and (b) examine how team…

  3. Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Álvaro José Back

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

  4. Short-term Forecasting Tools for Agricultural Nutrient Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Zachary M; Kleinman, Peter J A; Buda, Anthony R; Goering, Dustin; Emberston, Nichole; Reed, Seann; Drohan, Patrick J; Walter, M Todd; Guinan, Pat; Lory, John A; Sommerlot, Andrew R; Sharpley, Andrew

    2017-11-01

    The advent of real-time, short-term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high-performance computing and hydrologic or climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of real-time information that can assist landowners and conservation personnel with short-term management planning. This paper reviews short-term decision support tools for agriculture that are under various stages of development and implementation in the United States: (i) Wisconsin's Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) System, (ii) New York's Hydrologically Sensitive Area Prediction Tool, (iii) Virginia's Saturated Area Forecast Model, (iv) Pennsylvania's Fertilizer Forecaster, (v) Washington's Application Risk Management (ARM) System, and (vi) Missouri's Design Storm Notification System. Although these decision support tools differ in their underlying model structure, the resolution at which they are applied, and the hydroclimates to which they are relevant, all provide forecasts (range 24-120 h) of runoff risk or soil moisture saturation derived from National Weather Service Forecast models. Although this review highlights the need for further development of robust and well-supported short-term nutrient management tools, their potential for adoption and ultimate utility requires an understanding of the appropriate context of application, the strategic and operational needs of managers, access to weather forecasts, scales of application (e.g., regional vs. field level), data requirements, and outreach communication structure. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  5. Trends and homogeneity of monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall over arid region of Rajasthan, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meena, Hari Mohan; Machiwal, Deepesh; Santra, Priyabrata; Moharana, Pratap Chandra; Singh, D. V.

    2018-05-01

    Knowledge of rainfall variability is important for regional-scale planning and management of water resources in agriculture. This study explores spatio-temporal variations, trends, and homogeneity in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall series of 62 stations located in arid region of Rajasthan, India using 55 year (1957-2011) data. Box-whisker plots indicate presence of outliers and extremes in annual rainfall, which made the distribution of annual rainfall right-skewed. Mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of rainfall reveals a high inter-annual variability (CV > 200%) in the western portion where the mean annual rainfall is very low. A general gradient of the mean monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall is visible from northwest to southeast direction, which is orthogonal to the gradient of CV. The Sen's innovative trend test is found over-sensitive in evaluating statistical significance of the rainfall trends, while the Mann-Kendall test identifies significantly increasing rainfall trends in June and September. Rainfall in July shows prominently decreasing trends although none of them are found statistically significant. Monsoon and annual rainfall show significantly increasing trends at only four stations. The magnitude of trends indicates that the rainfall is increasing at a mean rate of 1.11, 2.85, and 2.89 mm year-1 in August, monsoon season, and annual series. The rainfall is found homogeneous over most of the area except for few stations situated in the eastern and northwest portions where significantly increasing trends are observed. Findings of this study indicate that there are few increasing trends in rainfall of this Indian arid region.

  6. The short-term and long-term effects of divorce on mortality risk in a large Finnish cohort, 1990-2003.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metsä-Simola, Niina; Martikainen, Pekka

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated time patterns of post-divorce excess mortality. Using register-based data, we followed 252,641 married Finns from 1990 until subsequent date of divorce and death until 2003. Among men, excess mortality is highest immediately after divorce, followed by a decline over 8 years. Among women, excess mortality shows little variation over time, and is lower than among men at all durations of divorce. Social and economic factors--largely adjustment for post-divorce factors--explain about half of the excess mortality. This suggests that excess mortality is partly mediated through poor social and economic resources. Mortality attributable to accidental, violent, and alcohol-related causes is pronounced shortly after divorce. It shows a strong pattern of reduction over the next 4 years among divorced men, and is high for only 6 months after divorce among divorced women. These findings emphasize the importance of short-term psychological distress, particularly among men.

  7. Use of Aquacrop Model to predict Maize Yields under Varying Rainfall and Temperature in a Semi-Arid Environment in Kenya

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wamari, O. J.; Sijali, V. I; Heng, N. K; Joseph Mutwiri Miriti, M. J; Esilaba, O A

    2012-01-01

    There has been increasing concern that drier and hotter seasons are becoming more frequent due to climate change especially in semi-arid environments causing adverse effects on agricultural production. Analysis of long-term (1980-2010) trends of rainfall in the first growing season (i.e. March and July) at Katumani, Kenya showed that about 55% of the seasons were below the long-term average, with an all time low occurring in the year 2000. Although the wettest years (1998 and 1985 ) had relatively higher percentages above the long-term average (143.9% and 138.4% ) compared to lower percentages ( 61.7% and 59.7%) of the driest years ( 2000 and 1987), the latter were relatively less in numbers (i.e. 45%). Mean seasonal temperatures however did not show high variation from the long term mean implying that rainfall was the main cause of yield variation in this area. The AquaCrop model (Ver. 3.1) evaluated using three years (i.e. 1999, 2000 and 2001) of experimental results at Katumani, gave reasonable estimates of above ground biomass and grain yield of Katumani composite maize variety. The model was then used to predict Katumani maize yields under 20% depletion of rainfall and 3°C temperature elevation scenarios. Biomass and grain yields simulated respectively ranged between 2.971 to 6.558 and 0.910 to 2.564 T Ha-1 with probabilities of obtaining 3-5 T Ha-1 biomass and 1-2 T Ha-1 grain yields each dropping from 98 to 25%. Adaptation measures are given as management recommendations in line with the changed climatic scenario. (author)

  8. TRMM Applications for Rainfall-Induced Landslide Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dok, A.; Fukuoka, H.; Hong, Y.

    2012-04-01

    (snake line) were independently plotted to investigate the impact of short-term rainfall intensity and accumulated effective rainfall volume respectively for obtaining some probabilistic threshold. Japanese SWI was also tested to distribute threshold regarding to highly nonlinear rainfall patterns in predicting the landslide occurrence through the plot of total water of 3 serial tank models and daily precipitation. As a result, the snake line plots using TMPA work well for landslide warning in the selected cities; while SWI plots shows unusual peak value on the day of the debris flow occurrence. Graph of daily precipitation vs SWI implies possible zone of critical line, and second peak appearance 1 day before, indicating possibility of early warning.

  9. An Artificial Neural Network Based Short-term Dynamic Prediction of Algae Bloom

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yao Junyang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of short-term prediction of algae bloom based on artificial neural network. Firstly, principal component analysis is applied to water environmental factors in algae bloom raceway ponds to get main factors that influence the formation of algae blooms. Then, a model of short-term dynamic prediction based on neural network is built with the current chlorophyll_a values as input and the chlorophyll_a values in the next moment as output to realize short-term dynamic prediction of algae bloom. Simulation results show that the model can realize short-term prediction of algae bloom effectively.

  10. DYNAMICS OF THE ANXIETY DISORDERS IN THE COURSE OF SHORT-TERM PSYCHOTHERAPY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.N. Hmylova

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The tendency of psychotherapy modern concepts referring to the short-term forms having been taken into account, we carried out the research aimed at the study of short-term form personality-oriented psychotherapy effect on the anxiety disorder dynamics. 103 patients with neurotic disorders were examined in the neurosis and psychotherapy department of the Bekhterev Psychoneurological Research Institute. The findings revealed the situational and personal anxiety level to be objectively decreased in the short-term group psychotherapy course. The short-term group psychotherapy was proved to bean effective method in anxiety disorders treatment considering indications and limitations.

  11. An ethics curriculum for short-term global health trainees

    OpenAIRE

    DeCamp, Matthew; Rodriguez, Joce; Hecht, Shelby; Barry, Michele; Sugarman, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Background Interest in short-term global health training and service programs continues to grow, yet they can be associated with a variety of ethical issues for which trainees or others with limited global health experience may not be prepared to address. Therefore, there is a clear need for educational interventions concerning these ethical issues. Methods We developed and evaluated an introductory curriculum, ?Ethical Challenges in Short-term Global Health Training.? The curriculum was deve...

  12. Narcissism and the Strategic Pursuit of Short-Term Mating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmitt, David P.; Alcalay, Lidia; Allik, Jüri

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies have documented links between sub-clinical narcissism and the active pursuit of short-term mating strategies (e.g., unrestricted sociosexuality, marital infidelity, mate poaching). Nearly all of these investigations have relied solely on samples from Western cultures. In the curr...... limitations of these cross-culturally universal findings and presents suggestions for future research into revealing the precise psychological features of narcissism that facilitate the strategic pursuit of short-term mating....

  13. Short-term cyclic variations and diurnal variations of the Venus upper atmosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, G. M.; Taylor, F. W.; Nicholson, J. Y.; Hinson, E. W.

    1979-01-01

    The vertical structure of the nighttime thermosphere and exosphere of Venus was discussed. A comparison of the day and nighttime profiles indicates, contrary to the model of Dickinson and Riley (1977), that densities (principally atomic oxygen) dropped sharply from day to night. It was suggested either that the lower estimates were related to cooler exospheric temperatures at night or that the atomic bulge was flatter than expected at lower altitudes. Large periodic oscillations, in both density and inferred exospheric temperatures, were detected with periods of 5 to 6 days. The possibility that cyclic variations in the thermosphere and stratosphere were caused by planetary-scale waves, propagated upward from the lower atmosphere, was investigated using simultaneous temperature measurements obtained by the Venus radiometric temperature experiment (VORTEX). Inferred exospheric temperatures in the morning were found to be lower than in the evening as if the atmosphere rotated in the direction of the planet's rotation, similar to that of earth. Superrotation of the thermosphere and exosphere was discussed as a possible extension of the 4-day cyclic atmospheric rotation near the cloud tops.

  14. Cash Management and Short-Term Investments for Colleges and Universities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haag, Leonard H.

    Effective cash management and short-term investing are discussed in this "how to" guide designed to benefit most institutions of higher education. The following premises are examined: proper compensation for effective cash management is not an expense but an investment; effective cash management and short-term investment programs do not depend on…

  15. Conversion of short-term to long-term memory in the novel object recognition paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Shannon J; Deshpande, Kaivalya; Stinnett, Gwen S; Seasholtz, Audrey F; Murphy, Geoffrey G

    2013-10-01

    It is well-known that stress can significantly impact learning; however, whether this effect facilitates or impairs the resultant memory depends on the characteristics of the stressor. Investigation of these dynamics can be confounded by the role of the stressor in motivating performance in a task. Positing a cohesive model of the effect of stress on learning and memory necessitates elucidating the consequences of stressful stimuli independently from task-specific functions. Therefore, the goal of this study was to examine the effect of manipulating a task-independent stressor (elevated light level) on short-term and long-term memory in the novel object recognition paradigm. Short-term memory was elicited in both low light and high light conditions, but long-term memory specifically required high light conditions during the acquisition phase (familiarization trial) and was independent of the light level during retrieval (test trial). Additionally, long-term memory appeared to be independent of stress-mediated glucocorticoid release, as both low and high light produced similar levels of plasma corticosterone, which further did not correlate with subsequent memory performance. Finally, both short-term and long-term memory showed no savings between repeated experiments suggesting that this novel object recognition paradigm may be useful for longitudinal studies, particularly when investigating treatments to stabilize or enhance weak memories in neurodegenerative diseases or during age-related cognitive decline. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Atmospheric Predictors: Improved Assessment of Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Mamalakis, Antonis; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino

    2015-04-01

    To improve the level skill of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in reproducing the statistics of rainfall at a basin level and at hydrologically relevant temporal scales (e.g. daily), two types of statistical approaches have been suggested. One is the statistical correction of climate model rainfall outputs using historical series of precipitation. The other is the use of stochastic models of rainfall to conditionally simulate precipitation series, based on large-scale atmospheric predictors produced by climate models (e.g. geopotential height, relative vorticity, divergence, mean sea level pressure). The latter approach, usually referred to as statistical rainfall downscaling, aims at reproducing the statistical character of rainfall, while accounting for the effects of large-scale atmospheric circulation (and, therefore, climate forcing) on rainfall statistics. While promising, statistical rainfall downscaling has not attracted much attention in recent years, since the suggested approaches involved complex (i.e. subjective or computationally intense) identification procedures of the local weather, in addition to demonstrating limited success in reproducing several statistical features of rainfall, such as seasonal variations, the distributions of dry and wet spell lengths, the distribution of the mean rainfall intensity inside wet periods, and the distribution of rainfall extremes. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings, Langousis and Kaleris (2014) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables, which accurately reproduces the statistical character of rainfall at multiple time-scales. Here, we study the relative performance of: a) quantile-quantile (Q-Q) correction of climate model rainfall products, and b) the statistical downscaling scheme of Langousis and Kaleris (2014), in reproducing the statistical structure of rainfall, as well as rainfall extremes, at a

  17. Transpiration Response and Growth in Pearl Millet Parental Lines and Hybrids Bred for Contrasting Rainfall Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susan Medina

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Under conditions of high vapor pressure deficit (VPD and soil drying, restricting transpiration is an important avenue to gain efficiency in water use. The question we raise in this article is whether breeding for agro-ecological environments that differ for the rainfall have selected for traits that control plant water use. These are measured in pearl millet materials bred for zones varying in rainfall (8 combinations of parent and F1-hybrids, 18 F1-hybrids and then 40 F1-hybrids. In all cases, we found an agro-ecological variation in the slope of the transpiration response to increasing VPD, and parental line variation in the transpiration response to soil drying within hybrids/parent combinations. The hybrids adapted to lower rainfall had higher transpiration response curves than those from the highest rainfall zones, but showed no variation in how transpiration responded to soil drying. The genotypes bred for lower rainfall zones showed lower leaf area, dry matter, thicker leaves, root development, and exudation, than the ones bred for high rainfall zone when grown in the low VPD environment of the greenhouse, but there was no difference in their root length neither on the root/shoot index in these genotypes. By contrast, when grown under high VPD conditions outdoors, the lower rainfall hybrids had the highest leaf, tiller, and biomass development. Finally, under soil drying the genotypes from the lower rainfall accumulated less biomass than the ones from higher rainfall zone, and so did the parental lines compared to the hybrids. These differences in the transpiration response and growth clearly showed that breeding for different agro-ecological zones also bred for different genotype strategies in relation to traits related to plant water use.Highlights:• Variation in transpiration response reflected breeding for agro-ecological zones• Different growth strategies depended on the environmental conditions• Different ideotypes reflected

  18. Transpiration Response and Growth in Pearl Millet Parental Lines and Hybrids Bred for Contrasting Rainfall Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, Susan; Gupta, S K; Vadez, Vincent

    2017-01-01

    Under conditions of high vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil drying, restricting transpiration is an important avenue to gain efficiency in water use. The question we raise in this article is whether breeding for agro-ecological environments that differ for the rainfall have selected for traits that control plant water use. These are measured in pearl millet materials bred for zones varying in rainfall (8 combinations of parent and F 1 -hybrids, 18 F 1 -hybrids and then 40 F 1 -hybrids). In all cases, we found an agro-ecological variation in the slope of the transpiration response to increasing VPD, and parental line variation in the transpiration response to soil drying within hybrids/parent combinations. The hybrids adapted to lower rainfall had higher transpiration response curves than those from the highest rainfall zones, but showed no variation in how transpiration responded to soil drying. The genotypes bred for lower rainfall zones showed lower leaf area, dry matter, thicker leaves, root development, and exudation, than the ones bred for high rainfall zone when grown in the low VPD environment of the greenhouse, but there was no difference in their root length neither on the root/shoot index in these genotypes. By contrast, when grown under high VPD conditions outdoors, the lower rainfall hybrids had the highest leaf, tiller, and biomass development. Finally, under soil drying the genotypes from the lower rainfall accumulated less biomass than the ones from higher rainfall zone, and so did the parental lines compared to the hybrids. These differences in the transpiration response and growth clearly showed that breeding for different agro-ecological zones also bred for different genotype strategies in relation to traits related to plant water use. Highlights : • Variation in transpiration response reflected breeding for agro-ecological zones • Different growth strategies depended on the environmental conditions • Different ideotypes reflected

  19. Analysis of rainfall-induced shallow landslides and debris flows in the Eastern Pyrenees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portilla Gamboa, M.; Hürlimann, M.; Corominas, J.

    2009-09-01

    The inventory of rainfall-induced mass movements, rainfall data, and slope characteristics are considered the basis of the analysis determining appropriate rainfall thresholds for mass movements in a specific region. The rainfall-induced landslide thresholds established in the literature for the Catalan Pyrenees have been formulated referring to the rainfall events of November 1982, September 1992, December 1997, and others occurred after 1999. It has been shown that a rainfall intensity greater than 190 mm in 24 hours without antecedent rainfall would be necessary to produce mass movements (Corominas and Moya, 1999; Corominas et al, 2002) or 51mm in 24h with 61 mm of accumulated rainfall (Marco, 2007). Short duration-high intensity rainfalls have brought about several mass movements in some Catalonian regions throughout the course of twenty-first century (Berga, Bonaigua, Saldes, Montserrat, Port-Ainé, Riu Runer, and Sant Nicolau). Preliminary analysis of these events shows that it is necessary to review the thresholds defined so far and redo the existing inventory of mass movements for the Catalan Pyrenees. The present work shows the usefulness of aerial photographs in the reconstruction of the inventory of historic mass movements (Molló-Queralbs, 1940; Arties-Vielha, 1963; Barruera-Senet, 1940 and 1963, and Berga-Cercs, 1982, 1997 and 2008). Also, it highlights the treatment given to scarce and scattered rainfall data available inside these Catalonia’s regions, and the application of Geographic Information Systems (ArcGIS) in the management of the gathered information. The results acquired until now show that the historic rainfall events occurred in the Eastern Pyrenees have yielded many more mass movements than those reported in the literature. Besides, it can be said that the thresholds formulated for the Pyrenees are valid for longstanding regional rainfalls, and not for local downpours. In the latter cases it should be necessary to take into account the

  20. Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

    1996-11-01

    The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall

  1. Short-term and long-term plasticity interaction in human primary motor cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iezzi, Ennio; Suppa, Antonio; Conte, Antonella; Li Voti, Pietro; Bologna, Matteo; Berardelli, Alfredo

    2011-05-01

    Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) over primary motor cortex (M1) elicits changes in motor evoked potential (MEP) size thought to reflect short- and long-term forms of synaptic plasticity, resembling short-term potentiation (STP) and long-term potentiation/depression (LTP/LTD) observed in animal experiments. We designed this study in healthy humans to investigate whether STP as elicited by 5-Hz rTMS interferes with LTP/LTD-like plasticity induced by intermittent and continuous theta-burst stimulation (iTBS and cTBS). The effects induced by 5-Hz rTMS and iTBS/cTBS were indexed as changes in MEP size. We separately evaluated changes induced by 5-Hz rTMS, iTBS and cTBS applied alone and those induced by iTBS and cTBS delivered after priming 5-Hz rTMS. Interactions between 5-Hz rTMS and iTBS/cTBS were investigated under several experimental conditions by delivering 5-Hz rTMS at suprathreshold and subthreshold intensity, allowing 1 and 5 min intervals to elapse between 5-Hz rTMS and TBS, and delivering one and ten 5-Hz rTMS trains. We also investigated whether 5-Hz rTMS induces changes in intracortical excitability tested with paired-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation. When given alone, 5-Hz rTMS induced short-lasting and iTBS/cTBS induced long-lasting changes in MEP amplitudes. When M1 was primed with 10 suprathreshold 5-Hz rTMS trains at 1 min before iTBS or cTBS, the iTBS/cTBS-induced after-effects disappeared. The 5-Hz rTMS left intracortical excitability unchanged. We suggest that STP elicited by suprathreshold 5-Hz rTMS abolishes iTBS/cTBS-induced LTP/LTD-like plasticity through non-homeostatic metaplasticity mechanisms. Our study provides new information on interactions between short-term and long-term rTMS-induced plasticity in human M1. © 2011 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2011 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  2. Short-term plasticity as a neural mechanism supporting memory and attentional functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jääskeläinen, Iiro P; Ahveninen, Jyrki; Andermann, Mark L; Belliveau, John W; Raij, Tommi; Sams, Mikko

    2011-11-08

    Based on behavioral studies, several relatively distinct perceptual and cognitive functions have been defined in cognitive psychology such as sensory memory, short-term memory, and selective attention. Here, we review evidence suggesting that some of these functions may be supported by shared underlying neuronal mechanisms. Specifically, we present, based on an integrative review of the literature, a hypothetical model wherein short-term plasticity, in the form of transient center-excitatory and surround-inhibitory modulations, constitutes a generic processing principle that supports sensory memory, short-term memory, involuntary attention, selective attention, and perceptual learning. In our model, the size and complexity of receptive fields/level of abstraction of neural representations, as well as the length of temporal receptive windows, increases as one steps up the cortical hierarchy. Consequently, the type of input (bottom-up vs. top down) and the level of cortical hierarchy that the inputs target, determine whether short-term plasticity supports purely sensory vs. semantic short-term memory or attentional functions. Furthermore, we suggest that rather than discrete memory systems, there are continuums of memory representations from short-lived sensory ones to more abstract longer-duration representations, such as those tapped by behavioral studies of short-term memory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Short-term and long-term effects of GDP on traffic deaths in 18 OECD countries, 1960-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dadgar, Iman; Norström, Thor

    2017-02-01

    Research suggests that increases in gross domestic product (GDP) lead to increases in traffic deaths plausibly due to the increased road traffic induced by an expanding economy. However, there also seems to exist a long-term effect of economic growth that is manifested in improved traffic safety and reduced rates of traffic deaths. Previous studies focus on either the short-term, procyclical effect, or the long-term, protective effect. The aim of the present study is to estimate the short-term and long-term effects jointly in order to assess the net impact of GDP on traffic mortality. We extracted traffic death rates for the period 1960-2011 from the WHO Mortality Database for 18 OECD countries. Data on GDP/capita were obtained from the Maddison Project. We performed error correction modelling to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of GDP on the traffic death rates. The estimates from the error correction modelling for the entire study period suggested that a one-unit increase (US$1000) in GDP/capita yields an instantaneous short-term increase in the traffic death rate by 0.58 (pGDP leads to an immediate increase in traffic deaths. However, after the mid-1970s this short-term effect is more than outweighed by a markedly stronger protective long-term effect, whereas the reverse is true for the period before the mid-1970s. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  4. Solar UV radiation variations and their stratospheric and climatic effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donnelly, R. F.; Heath, D. F.

    1985-01-01

    Nimbus-7 SBUV measurements of the short-term solar UV variations caused by solar rotation and active-region evolution have determined the amplitude and wavelength dependence for the active-region component of solar UV variations. Intermediate-term variations lasting several months are associated with rounds of major new active regions. The UV flux stays near the peak value during the current solar cycle variation for more than two years and peaks about two years later than the sunspot number. Nimbus-7 measurements have observed the concurrent stratospheric ozone variations caused by solar UV variations. There is now no doubt that solar UV variations are an important cause of short- and long-term stratospheric variations, but the strength of the coupling to the troposphere and to climate has not yet been proven.

  5. Variation in Annual Rainfall Data of Forty Years (1978-2017) for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF HORSFALL

    2018-04-07

    Apr 7, 2018 ... differences between the two means of the equal-length time scales revealed variability of ... intensities within the Southern part of Nigeria, is ..... Assessing Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Guinea. Savanna Part of Nigeria.

  6. Long story short: an introduction to the short-term and long-term Six Sigma quality and its importance in the laboratory medicine for the management of extra-analytical processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ialongo, Cristiano; Bernardini, Sergio

    2018-06-18

    There is a compelling need for quality tools that enable effective control of the extra-analytical phase. In this regard, Six Sigma seems to offer a valid methodological and conceptual opportunity, and in recent times, the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine has adopted it for indicating the performance requirements for non-analytical laboratory processes. However, the Six Sigma implies a distinction between short-term and long-term quality that is based on the dynamics of the processes. These concepts are still not widespread and applied in the field of laboratory medicine although they are of fundamental importance to exploit the full potential of this methodology. This paper reviews the Six Sigma quality concepts and shows how they originated from Shewhart's control charts, in respect of which they are not an alternative but a completion. It also discusses the dynamic nature of process and how it arises, concerning particularly the long-term dynamic mean variation, and explains why this leads to the fundamental distinction of quality we previously mentioned.

  7. Short-term uranium price formation: a methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsieh, L.Y.; de Graffenried, C.L.

    1987-01-01

    One of the major problems in analyzing the short-term uranium market is the lack of a well-defined spot market price. The two primary sources of price data covering the US uranium market are the series published by the US Dept. of Energy (DOE) and by the Nuclear Exchange Corporation (NUEXCO), a private brokerage firm. Because of the differences in both definition and coverage, these two series are not directly comparable. In this study, an econometric model was developed for analyzing the interrelationship between short-term uranium price (NUEXCO exchange value), supply, demand, and future price expectations formed by market participants. The validity of this model has been demonstrated by the fact that all simulation statistics derived are highly significant. Three forecasting scenarios were developed in this study

  8. Persistent long-term facilitation at an identified synapse becomes labile with activation of short-term heterosynaptic plasticity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Jiang-Yuan; Schacher, Samuel

    2014-04-02

    Short-term and long-term synaptic plasticity are cellular correlates of learning and memory of different durations. Little is known, however, how these two forms of plasticity interact at the same synaptic connection. We examined the reciprocal impact of short-term heterosynaptic or homosynaptic plasticity at sensorimotor synapses of Aplysia in cell culture when expressing persistent long-term facilitation (P-LTF) evoked by serotonin [5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT)]. Short-term heterosynaptic plasticity induced by 5-HT (facilitation) or the neuropeptide FMRFa (depression) and short-term homosynaptic plasticity induced by tetanus [post-tetanic potentiation (PTP)] or low-frequency stimulation [homosynaptic depression (HSD)] of the sensory neuron were expressed in both control synapses and synapses expressing P-LTF in the absence or presence of protein synthesis inhibitors. All forms of short-term plasticity failed to significantly affect ongoing P-LTF in the absence of protein synthesis inhibitors. However, P-LTF reversed to control levels when either 5-HT or FMRFa was applied in the presence of rapamycin. In contrast, P-LTF was unaffected when either PTP or HSD was evoked in the presence of either rapamycin or anisomycin. These results indicate that synapses expressing persistent plasticity acquire a "new" baseline and functionally express short-term changes as naive synapses, but the new baseline becomes labile following selective activations-heterosynaptic stimuli that evoke opposite forms of plasticity-such that when presented in the presence of protein synthesis inhibitors produce a rapid reversal of the persistent plasticity. Activity-selective induction of a labile state at synapses expressing persistent plasticity may facilitate the development of therapies for reversing inappropriate memories.

  9. Behavioural Models of Motor Control and Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Imanaka, Kuniyasu; Funase, Kozo; Yamauchi, Masaki

    1995-01-01

    We examined in this review article the behavioural and conceptual models of motor control and short-term memory which have intensively been investigated since the 1970s. First, we reviewed both the dual-storage model of short-term memory in which movement information is stored and a typical model of motor control which emphasizes the importance of efferent factors. We then examined two models of preselection effects: a cognitive model and a cognitive/ efferent model. Following this we reviewe...

  10. Gummed-up memory: Chewing gum impairs short-term recall

    OpenAIRE

    Kozlov, Michail D; Hughes, Robert W; Jones, Dylan M

    2012-01-01

    Several studies have suggested that short-term memory is generally improved by chewing gum. However, we report the first studies to show that chewing gum impairs short-term memory for both item order and item identity. Experiment 1 showed that chewing gum reduces serial recall of letter lists. Experiment 2 indicated that chewing does not simply disrupt vocal-articulatory planning required for order retention: Chewing equally impairs a matched task that required retention of list item identity...

  11. [Short-term memory characteristics of vibration intensity tactile perception on human wrist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hao, Fei; Chen, Li-Juan; Lu, Wei; Song, Ai-Guo

    2014-12-25

    In this study, a recall experiment and a recognition experiment were designed to assess the human wrist's short-term memory characteristics of tactile perception on vibration intensity, by using a novel homemade vibrotactile display device based on the spatiotemporal combination vibration of multiple micro vibration motors as a test device. Based on the obtained experimental data, the short-term memory span, recognition accuracy and reaction time of vibration intensity were analyzed. From the experimental results, some important conclusions can be made: (1) The average short-term memory span of tactile perception on vibration intensity is 3 ± 1 items; (2) The greater difference between two adjacent discrete intensities of vibrotactile stimulation is defined, the better average short-term memory span human wrist gets; (3) There is an obvious difference of the average short-term memory span on vibration intensity between the male and female; (4) The mechanism of information extraction in short-term memory of vibrotactile display is to traverse the scanning process by comparison; (5) The recognition accuracy and reaction time performance of vibrotactile display compares unfavourably with that of visual and auditory. The results from this study are important for designing vibrotactile display coding scheme.

  12. Prediction of rainfall-induced shallow landslides at national scale in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montrasio, Lorella; Valentino, Roberto; Rossi, Lauro; Rudari, Roberto; Terrone, Andrea

    2013-04-01

    In Italy, landslides are very frequent, widespread and dangerous phenomena. In the last decades, climate changes, which provoked weather conditions characterized by localized rainfall events of high intensity and short duration, together with modifications of land use and an increase of urban areas, have led to a progressive increase of the frequency and extent of rainfall-induced landslides. These phenomena caused, in turn, considerable damage to structures, infrastructure and crops, as well as casualties. These natural and anthropogenic factors determine a series of hydrogeological problems for both land resource and for inhabited areas, industrial areas and for the infrastructural network. The need for a continued monitoring activity that ensures the preservation of life and human activities, and for a real-time assessment of landslide risk, in close correlation with rainfall forecasts, is therefore increasing. The paper deals with the application, on national scale in the Italian territory, of the physically-based stability model SLIP (Shallow Landslides Instability Prediction). The SLIP model has been firstly developed at the Department of Civil Engineering at the University of Parma since 1997, in order to describe the triggering mechanism of rainfall-induced landslides. More recently, the SLIP model has been tested as a prototype early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides in Italy, using rainfall data and geospatial datasets. The model, which is based on the limit equilibrium method, is deliberately simplified, in order to evaluate the safety factor of a slope in function of the geotechnical characteristics of the soil, the geometrical features of the slope and the rainfall depth. A back analysis concerning the occurrence of some recent case-histories of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in the Italian territory is carried out and the main results are shown. The main features of the SLIP model are briefly recalled and particular attention is

  13. Distributional changes in rainfall and river flow in Sarawak, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Ismail, Tarmizi; Chung, Eun-Sung; Wang, Xiao-Jun

    2017-11-01

    Climate change may not change the rainfall mean, but the variability and extremes. Therefore, it is required to explore the possible distributional changes of rainfall characteristics over time. The objective of present study is to assess the distributional changes in annual and northeast monsoon rainfall (November-January) and river flow in Sarawak where small changes in rainfall or river flow variability/distribution may have severe implications on ecology and agriculture. A quantile regression-based approach was used to assess the changes of scale and location of empirical probability density function over the period 1980-2014 at 31 observational stations. The results indicate that diverse variation patterns exist at all stations for annual rainfall but mainly increasing quantile trend at the lowers, and higher quantiles for the month of January and December. The significant increase in annual rainfall is found mostly in the north and central-coastal region and monsoon month rainfalls in the interior and north of Sarawak. Trends in river flow data show that changes in rainfall distribution have affected higher quantiles of river flow in monsoon months at some of the basins and therefore more flooding. The study reveals that quantile trend can provide more information of rainfall change which may be useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning.

  14. Pro short-term procurement - Broker/trader

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoellen, E.E.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents his opinion on the issue of short-term versus long-term procurement of uranium and enrichment and the impact on reliability of supply. The progression of the market has been one of increasing commoditization. Utility buyers have moved towards purchasing uranium on the spot market and linking long-term contracts to spot-market pricing. There is some logic to the argument that utilities and the industry in general would be best served by this approach. Inventories would be worked off much more quickly, and unnecessary supply would be shut off until prices recovered to profitable levels. The result would be a healthier market with no detriment to the reliability of supply

  15. Short-term memory in the service of executive control functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshad Alizadeh Mansouri

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Short-term memory is a crucial cognitive function for supporting on-going and upcoming behaviours, allowing storage of information across delay periods. The content of this memory may typically include tangible information about features such as the shape, colour or texture of an object, its location and motion relative to the body, or phonological information. The neural correlate of these short-term memories has been found in different brain areas involved in organizing perceptual or motor functions. In particular, neuronal activity in different prefrontal areas encodes task-related information corresponding to short-term memory across delay periods, and lesions in the prefrontal cortex severely affect the ability to hold this type of memory. Recent studies have further expanded the scope and possible role of short-term memory by showing that information of abstract entities such as a behaviour-guiding rule, or the occurrence of a conflict in information processing; can also be maintained in short-term memory and used for adjusting the allocation of executive control in dynamic environments. It has also been shown that neuronal activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal and orbitofrontal cortices encodes information about such abstract entities. These findings suggest that the prefrontal cortex plays crucial roles in organizing goal-directed behaviour by supporting various mnemonic processes that maintain a wide range of information in the service of executive control of on-going or upcoming behaviour.

  16. Implicit short- and long-term memory direct our gaze in visual search.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruijne, Wouter; Meeter, Martijn

    2016-04-01

    Visual attention is strongly affected by the past: both by recent experience and by long-term regularities in the environment that are encoded in and retrieved from memory. In visual search, intertrial repetition of targets causes speeded response times (short-term priming). Similarly, targets that are presented more often than others may facilitate search, even long after it is no longer present (long-term priming). In this study, we investigate whether such short-term priming and long-term priming depend on dissociable mechanisms. By recording eye movements while participants searched for one of two conjunction targets, we explored at what stages of visual search different forms of priming manifest. We found both long- and short- term priming effects. Long-term priming persisted long after the bias was present, and was again found even in participants who were unaware of a color bias. Short- and long-term priming affected the same stage of the task; both biased eye movements towards targets with the primed color, already starting with the first eye movement. Neither form of priming affected the response phase of a trial, but response repetition did. The results strongly suggest that both long- and short-term memory can implicitly modulate feedforward visual processing.

  17. Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Divina

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

  18. Identity modulates short-term memory for facial emotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galster, Murray; Kahana, Michael J; Wilson, Hugh R; Sekuler, Robert

    2009-12-01

    For some time, the relationship between processing of facial expression and facial identity has been in dispute. Using realistic synthetic faces, we reexamined this relationship for both perception and short-term memory. In Experiment 1, subjects tried to identify whether the emotional expression on a probe stimulus face matched the emotional expression on either of two remembered faces that they had just seen. The results showed that identity strongly influenced recognition short-term memory for emotional expression. In Experiment 2, subjects' similarity/dissimilarity judgments were transformed by multidimensional scaling (MDS) into a 2-D description of the faces' perceptual representations. Distances among stimuli in the MDS representation, which showed a strong linkage of emotional expression and facial identity, were good predictors of correct and false recognitions obtained previously in Experiment 1. The convergence of the results from Experiments 1 and 2 suggests that the overall structure and configuration of faces' perceptual representations may parallel their representation in short-term memory and that facial identity modulates the representation of facial emotion, both in perception and in memory. The stimuli from this study may be downloaded from http://cabn.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.

  19. Short-term drought assessment in Pakistan and adjoining areas by remote sensing MODIS-NDVI data: A potential consequence of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, I.A.; Kiran, N.; Arsalan, M.H.

    2016-01-01

    Currently normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is extensively used for appraise vegetation composition, structure, stratification and distribution. Spatial and temporal rainfall distribution and its effect on NDVI can be helpful for drought examining. This study has been done to improved comprehend this association. The response of vegetation growth to current climate change in Pakistan and adjoining south Asian countries (22-42 degree N, 60-80 degree E) were investigated by analyzing the time series of the NDVI maps. We also obtained and analyzed time series of different variable i.e. rainfall, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and soil temperature model data, through NASA Geospatial Interactive Online Visualization and analysis Infrastructure (Giovanni) system, during Jan- Dec, 2014 for every three month interval. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center from International Research institute (IRI) for climate and society platform was also used for rainfall anomaly data. We found that NDVI values varies and depend on land cover types and its spatial location and dependant on rainfall. We found a strong positive relationship among NDVI, rainfall and soil moisture. Seasonal variations of rainfall are having also affects on evapotranspiration, soil temperature, and soil moisture conditions. (author)

  20. Statistical Analysis of 30 Years Rainfall Data: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arvind, G.; Ashok Kumar, P.; Girish Karthi, S.; Suribabu, C. R.

    2017-07-01

    Rainfall is a prime input for various engineering design such as hydraulic structures, bridges and culverts, canals, storm water sewer and road drainage system. The detailed statistical analysis of each region is essential to estimate the relevant input value for design and analysis of engineering structures and also for crop planning. A rain gauge station located closely in Trichy district is selected for statistical analysis where agriculture is the prime occupation. The daily rainfall data for a period of 30 years is used to understand normal rainfall, deficit rainfall, Excess rainfall and Seasonal rainfall of the selected circle headquarters. Further various plotting position formulae available is used to evaluate return period of monthly, seasonally and annual rainfall. This analysis will provide useful information for water resources planner, farmers and urban engineers to assess the availability of water and create the storage accordingly. The mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of monthly and annual rainfall was calculated to check the rainfall variability. From the calculated results, the rainfall pattern is found to be erratic. The best fit probability distribution was identified based on the minimum deviation between actual and estimated values. The scientific results and the analysis paved the way to determine the proper onset and withdrawal of monsoon results which were used for land preparation and sowing.

  1. Examining the Causes and Consequences of Short-Term Behavioral Change during the Middle Stone Age at Sibudu, South Africa.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas J Conard

    Full Text Available Sibudu in KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa with its rich and high-resolution archaeological sequence provides an ideal case study to examine the causes and consequences of short-term variation in the behavior of modern humans during the Middle Stone Age (MSA. We present the results from a technological analysis of 11 stratified lithic assemblages which overlie the Howiesons Poort deposits and all date to ~58 ka. Based on technological and typological attributes, we conducted inter-assemblage comparisons to characterize the nature and tempo of cultural change in successive occupations. This work identified considerable short-term variation with clear temporal trends throughout the sequence, demonstrating that knappers at Sibudu varied their technology over short time spans. The lithic assemblages can be grouped into three cohesive units which differ from each other in the procurement of raw materials, the frequency in the methods of core reduction, the kind of blanks produced, and in the nature of tools the inhabitants of Sibudu made and used. These groups of assemblages represent different strategies of lithic technology, which build upon each other in a gradual, cumulative manner. We also identify a clear pattern of development toward what we have previously defined as the Sibudan cultural taxonomic unit. Contextualizing these results on larger geographical scales shows that the later phase of the MSA during MIS 3 in KwaZulu-Natal and southern Africa is one of dynamic cultural change rather than of stasis or stagnation as has at times been claimed. In combination with environmental, subsistence and contextual information, our high-resolution data on lithic technology suggest that short-term behavioral variability at Sibudu can be best explained by changes in technological organization and socio-economic dynamics instead of environmental forcing.

  2. Examining the Causes and Consequences of Short-Term Behavioral Change during the Middle Stone Age at Sibudu, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conard, Nicholas J; Will, Manuel

    2015-01-01

    Sibudu in KwaZulu-Natal (South Africa) with its rich and high-resolution archaeological sequence provides an ideal case study to examine the causes and consequences of short-term variation in the behavior of modern humans during the Middle Stone Age (MSA). We present the results from a technological analysis of 11 stratified lithic assemblages which overlie the Howiesons Poort deposits and all date to ~58 ka. Based on technological and typological attributes, we conducted inter-assemblage comparisons to characterize the nature and tempo of cultural change in successive occupations. This work identified considerable short-term variation with clear temporal trends throughout the sequence, demonstrating that knappers at Sibudu varied their technology over short time spans. The lithic assemblages can be grouped into three cohesive units which differ from each other in the procurement of raw materials, the frequency in the methods of core reduction, the kind of blanks produced, and in the nature of tools the inhabitants of Sibudu made and used. These groups of assemblages represent different strategies of lithic technology, which build upon each other in a gradual, cumulative manner. We also identify a clear pattern of development toward what we have previously defined as the Sibudan cultural taxonomic unit. Contextualizing these results on larger geographical scales shows that the later phase of the MSA during MIS 3 in KwaZulu-Natal and southern Africa is one of dynamic cultural change rather than of stasis or stagnation as has at times been claimed. In combination with environmental, subsistence and contextual information, our high-resolution data on lithic technology suggest that short-term behavioral variability at Sibudu can be best explained by changes in technological organization and socio-economic dynamics instead of environmental forcing.

  3. RAINFALL ANALYSIS IN KLANG RIVER BASIN USING CONTINUOUS WAVELET TRANSFORM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso A. G. Santos

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The rainfall characteristics within Klang River basin is analyzed by the continuous wavelet transform using monthly rainfall data (1997–2009 from a raingauge and also using daily rainfall data (1998–2013 from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM. The wavelet power spectrum showed that some frequency components were presented within the rainfall time series, but the observed time series is short to provide accurate information, thus the daily TRMM rainfall data were used. In such analysis, two main frequency components, i.e., 6 and 12 months, showed to be present during the entire period of 16 years. Such semiannual and annual frequencies were confirmed by the global wavelet power spectra. Finally, the modulation in the 8–16-month and 256– 512-day bands were examined by an average of all scales between 8 and 16 months, and 256 and 512 days, respectively, giving a measure of the average monthly/daily variance versus time, where the periods with low or high variance could be identified.

  4. Short-term and long-term memory in early temporal lobe dysfunction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hershey, T; Craft, S; Glauser, T A; Hale, S

    1998-01-01

    Following medial temporal damage, mature humans are impaired in retaining new information over long delays but not short delays. The question of whether a similar dissociation occurs in children was addressed by testing children (ages 7-16) with unilateral temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) and controls on short- and long-term memory tasks, including a spatial delayed response task (SDR). Early-onset TLE did not affect performance on short delays on SDR, but it did impair performance at the longest delay (60 s), similar to adults with unilateral medial temporal damage. In addition, early-onset TLE affected performance on pattern recall, spatial span, and verbal span with rehearsal interference. No differences were found on story recall or on a response inhibition task.

  5. Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quispe, Renato; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Burroughs Peña, Melissa S; Poterico, Julio A; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Huffman, Mark D; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-01-01

    Background Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. Methods and Results We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (PPeruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. PMID:26254303

  6. Short term depression unmasks the ghost frequency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjeerd V Olde Scheper

    Full Text Available Short Term Plasticity (STP has been shown to exist extensively in synapses throughout the brain. Its function is more or less clear in the sense that it alters the probability of synaptic transmission at short time scales. However, it is still unclear what effect STP has on the dynamics of neural networks. We show, using a novel dynamic STP model, that Short Term Depression (STD can affect the phase of frequency coded input such that small networks can perform temporal signal summation and determination with high accuracy. We show that this property of STD can readily solve the problem of the ghost frequency, the perceived pitch of a harmonic complex in absence of the base frequency. Additionally, we demonstrate that this property can explain dynamics in larger networks. By means of two models, one of chopper neurons in the Ventral Cochlear Nucleus and one of a cortical microcircuit with inhibitory Martinotti neurons, it is shown that the dynamics in these microcircuits can reliably be reproduced using STP. Our model of STP gives important insights into the potential roles of STP in self-regulation of cortical activity and long-range afferent input in neuronal microcircuits.

  7. Stochastic Optimal Wind Power Bidding Strategy in Short-Term Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    Due to the fluctuating nature and non-perfect forecast of the wind power, the wind power owners are penalized for the imbalance costs of the regulation, when they trade wind power in the short-term liberalized electricity market. Therefore, in this paper a formulation of an imbalance cost...... minimization problem for trading wind power in the short-term electricity market is described, to help the wind power owners optimize their bidding strategy. Stochastic optimization and a Monte Carlo method are adopted to find the optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the short-term electricity...... market in order to deal with the uncertainty of the regulation price, the activated regulation of the power system and the forecasted wind power generation. The Danish short-term electricity market and a wind farm in western Denmark are chosen as study cases due to the high wind power penetration here...

  8. Tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the CFSR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jiande [I.M. System Group Inc. at NOAA/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Wang, Wanqiu [NOAA/NCEP/CPC, Camp Springs, MD (United States); Fu, Xiouhua [University of Hawaii at Manoa, IPRC, SOEST, Honolulu, HI (United States); Seo, Kyong-Hwan [Pusan National University, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-06-15

    While large-scale circulation fields from atmospheric reanalyses have been widely used to study the tropical intraseasonal variability, rainfall variations from the reanalyses are less focused. Because of the sparseness of in situ observations available in the tropics and strong coupling between convection and large-scale circulation, the accuracy of tropical rainfall from the reanalyses not only measures the quality of reanalysis rainfall but is also to some extent indicative of the accuracy of the circulations fields. This study analyzes tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability in the recently completed NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and its comparison with the widely used NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (R1) and NCEP/DOE reanalysis (R2). The R1 produces too weak rainfall variability while the R2 generates too strong westward propagation. Compared with the R1 and R2, the CFSR produces greatly improved tropical intraseasonal rainfall variability with the dominance of eastward propagation and more realistic amplitude. An analysis of the relationship between rainfall and large-scale fields using composites based on Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events shows that, in all three NCEP reanalyses, the moisture convergence leading the rainfall maximum is near the surface in the western Pacific but is above 925 hPa in the eastern Indian Ocean. However, the CFSR produces the strongest large-scale convergence and the rainfall from CFSR lags the column integrated precipitable water by 1 or 2 days while R1 and R2 rainfall tends to lead the respective precipitable water. Diabatic heating related to the MJO variability in the CFSR is analyzed and compared with that derived from large-scale fields. It is found that the amplitude of CFSR-produced total heating anomalies is smaller than that of the derived. Rainfall variability from the other two recently produced reanalyses, the ECMWF Re-Analysis Interim (ERAI), and the Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and

  9. Monsoon Rainfall and Landslides in Nepal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahal, R. K.; Hasegawa, S.; Bhandary, N. P.; Yatabe, R.

    2009-12-01

    antecedent rainfall in triggering landslides. It is noticed that a moderate correlation exists between the antecedent rainfalls of 3 to 10 days and the daily rainfall at failure in the Nepal Himalaya. The rainfall thresholds are utilized to develop early warning systems. Taking reference of the intensity-duration threshold and normalized rainfall intensity threshold, two proto-type models of early warning systems (RIEWS and N-RIEWS) are proposed. Early warning models show less time for evacuation in the case of short duration and high intensity rainfall, whereas for long duration rainfall, warning time is enough and when warning information disseminate to the people, people will aware to possible landslide risk. In the meantime, they will be mentally ready to tackle with possible disaster of coming hours or days and will avoid the consequences. On the basis of coarse hydro-meteorological data of developing country like Nepal, this simple and rather easy model of early warning will certainly help to reduce fatalities from landslides.

  10. Assessing Tolerance-Based Robust Short-Term Load Forecasting in Buildings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Prieto

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting (STLF in buildings differs from its broader counterpart in that the load to be predicted does not seem to be stationary, seasonal and regular but, on the contrary, it may be subject to sudden changes and variations on its consumption behaviour. Classical STLF methods do not react fast enough to these perturbations (i.e., they are not robust and the literature on building STLF has not yet explored this area. Hereby, we evaluate a well-known post-processing method (Learning Window Reinitialization applied to two broadly-used STLF algorithms (Autoregressive Model and Support Vector Machines in buildings to check their adaptability and robustness. We have tested the proposed method with real-world data and our results state that this methodology is especially suited for buildings with non-regular consumption profiles, as classical STLF methods are enough to model regular-profiled ones.

  11. Visual dot interaction with short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etindele Sosso, Faustin Armel

    2017-06-01

    Many neurodegenerative diseases have a memory component. Brain structures related to memory are affected by environmental stimuli, and it is difficult to dissociate effects of all behavior of neurons. Here, visual cortex of mice was stimulated with gratings and dot, and an observation of neuronal activity before and after was made. Bandwidth, firing rate and orientation selectivity index were evaluated. A primary communication between primary visual cortex and short-term memory appeared to show an interesting path to train cognitive circuitry and investigate the basics mechanisms of the neuronal learning. The findings also suggested the interplay between primary visual cortex and short-term plasticity. The properties inside a visual target shape the perception and affect the basic encoding. Using visual cortex, it may be possible to train the memory and improve the recovery of people with cognitive disabilities or memory deficit.

  12. Effects of Rainfall Characteristics on the Stability of Tropical Residual Soil Slope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahardjo Harianto

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change has a significant impact on rainfall characteristics, sea water level and groundwater table. Changes in rainfall characteristics may affect stability of slopes and have severe impacts on sustainable urban living. Information on the intensity, frequency and duration of rainfall is often required by geotechnical engineers for performing slope stability analyses. Many seepage analyses are commonly performed using the most extreme rainfall possible which is uneconomical in designing a slope repair or slope failure preventive measure. In this study, the historical rainfall data were analyzed and investigated to understand the characteristics of rainfall in Singapore. The frequency distribution method was used to estimate future rainfall characteristics in Singapore. New intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves for rainfall in Singapore were developed for six different durations (10, 20, 30 min and 1, 2 and 24 h and six frequencies (2, 5, 10, 25, 50 and 100 years. The new IDF curves were used in the seepage and slope stability analyses to determine the variation of factor of safety of residual soil slopes under different rainfall intensities in Singapore.

  13. Pro short-term procurement - U.S. utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    The author expresses the opinion that rather than focusing market discussions around short-term versus long-term procurement strategies, the parties need to be focusing on how long it is going to take to get to a predominantly market-based price both in uranium and enrichment. Long-term contracts are going to be around and will always be an important part of buyers' and sellers' strategies. It is evident that the annual term contract price renegotiations around the world are resulting in continually lower prices. When these price negotiations finally arrive in the range of the market price, a commodity market that resembles other energy commodity markets can be obtained

  14. Short-Term Memory in Habituation and Dishabituation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlow, Jesse William, Jr.

    1975-01-01

    The present research evaluated the refractorylike response decrement, as found in habituation of auditory evoked peripheral vasoconstriction in rabbits, to determine whether or not it represents a short-term habituation process distinct from effector fatigue or sensory adaptation. (Editor)

  15. Possible biphasic sweating response during short-term heat acclimation protocol for tropical natives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magalhães, Flávio de Castro; Machado-Moreira, Christiano Antônio; Vimieiro-Gomes, Ana Carolina; Silami-Garcia, Emerson; Lima, Nilo Resende Viana; Rodrigues, Luiz Oswaldo Carneiro

    2006-05-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the sweat loss response during short-term heat acclimation in tropical natives. Six healthy young male subjects, inhabitants of a tropical region, were heat acclimated by means of nine days of one-hour heat-exercise treatments (40+/-0 degrees C and 32+/-1% relative humidity; 50% (.)VO(2peak) on a cycle ergometer). On days 1 to 9 of heat acclimation whole-body sweat loss was calculated by body weight variation corrected for body surface area. On days 1 and 9 rectal temperature (T(re)) and heart rate (HR) were measured continuously, and rating of perceived exertion (RPE) every 4 minutes. Heat acclimation was confirmed by reduced HR (day 1 rest: 77+/-5 b.min(-1); day 9 rest: 68+/-3 b.min(-1); day 1 final exercise: 161+/-15 b.min(-1); day 9 final exercise: 145+/-11 b.min(-1), p0.05) of the protocol. These findings are consistent with the heat acclimation induced adaptations and suggest a biphasic sweat response (an increase in the sweat rate in the middle of the protocol followed by return to initial values by the end of it) during short-term heat acclimation in tropical natives.

  16. Variation in the local population dynamics of the short-lived Opuntia macrorhiza (Cactaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haridas, C V; Keeler, Kathleen H; Tenhumberg, Brigitte

    2015-03-01

    Spatiotemporal variation in demographic rates can have profound effects for population persistence, especially for dispersal-limited species living in fragmented landscapes. Long-term studies of plants in such habitats help with understanding the impacts of fragmentation on population persistence but such studies are rare. In this work, we reanalyzed demographic data from seven years of the short-lived cactus Opuntia macrorhiza var. macrorhiza at five plots in Boulder, Colorado. Previous work combining data from all years and all plots predicted a stable population (deterministic log lamda approximately 0). This approach assumed that all five plots were part of a single population. Since the plots were located in a suburban-agricultural interface separated by highways, grazing lands, and other barriers, and O. macrorhiza is likely dispersal limited, we analyzed the dynamics of each plot separately using stochastic matrix models assuming each plot represented a separate population. We found that the stochastic population growth rate log lamdaS varied widely between populations (log lamdaS = 0.1497, 0.0774, -0.0230, -0.2576, -0.4989). The three populations with the highest growth rates were located close together in space, while the two most isolated populations had the lowest growth rates suggesting that dispersal between populations is critical for the population viability of O. macrorhiza. With one exception, both our prospective (stochastic elasticity) and retrospective (stochastic life table response experiments) analysis suggested that means of stasis and growth, especially of smaller plants, were most important for population growth rate. This is surprising because recruitment is typically the most important vital rate in a short-lived species such as O. macrorhiza. We found that elasticity to the variance was mostly negligible, suggesting that O. macrorhiza populations are buffered against large temporal variation. Finally, single-year elasticities to means

  17. What do short-term and long-term relationships look like? Building the relationship coordination and strategic timing (ReCAST) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastwick, Paul W; Keneski, Elizabeth; Morgan, Taylor A; McDonald, Meagan A; Huang, Sabrina A

    2018-05-01

    Close relationships research has examined committed couples (e.g., dating relationships, marriages) using intensive methods that plot relationship development over time. But a substantial proportion of people's real-life sexual experiences take place (a) before committed relationships become "official" and (b) in short-term relationships; methods that document the time course of relationships have rarely been applied to these contexts. We adapted a classic relationship trajectory-plotting technique to generate the first empirical comparisons between the features of people's real-life short-term and long-term relationships across their entire timespan. Five studies compared long-term and short-term relationships in terms of the timing of relationship milestones (e.g., flirting, first sexual intercourse) and the occurrence/intensity of important relationship experiences (e.g., romantic interest, strong sexual desire, attachment). As romantic interest was rising and partners were becoming acquainted, long-term and short-term relationships were indistinguishable. Eventually, romantic interest in short-term relationships plateaued and declined while romantic interest in long-term relationships continued to rise, ultimately reaching a higher peak. As relationships progressed, participants evidenced more features characteristic of the attachment-behavioral system (e.g., attachment, caregiving) in long-term than short-term relationships but similar levels of other features (e.g., sexual desire, self-promotion, intrasexual competition). These data inform a new synthesis of close relationships and evolutionary psychological perspectives called the Relationship Coordination and Strategic Timing (ReCAST) model. ReCAST depicts short-term and long-term relationships as partially overlapping trajectories (rather than relationships initiated with distinct strategies) that differ in their progression along a normative relationship development sequence. (PsycINFO Database Record (c

  18. Erosivity factor in the Universal Soil Loss Equation estimated from Finnish rainfall data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maximilian Posch

    1993-07-01

    Full Text Available Continuous rainfall data recorded for many years at 8 stations in Finland were used to estimate rainfall erosivity, a quantity needed for soil loss predictions with the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE. The obtained erosivity values were then used to determine the 2 parameters of a power-law function describing the relationship between daily precipitation and erosivity. This function is of importance in erosion modeling at locations where no breakpoint rainfall data are available. The parameters of the power-law were estimated both by linear regression of the log-transformed data and by non-linear least-square fitting of the original data. Results indicate a considerable seasonal (monthly variation of the erosivity, whereas the spatial variation over Finland is rather small.

  19. Quantifying Rainfall Interception Loss of a Subtropical Broadleaved Forest in Central Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi-Ying Chen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The factors controlling seasonal rainfall interception loss are investigated by using a double-mass curve analysis, based on direct measurements of high-temporal resolution gross rainfall, throughfall and stemflow from 43 rainfall events that occurred in central Taiwan from April 2008 to April 2009. The canopy water storage capacity for the wet season was estimated to be 1.86 mm, about twice that for the dry season (0.91 mm, likely due to the large reduction in the leaf area index (LAI from 4.63 to 2.23 (m2·m−2. Changes in seasonal canopy structure and micro-meteorological conditions resulted in temporal variations in the amount of interception components, and rainfall partitioning into stemflow and throughfall. Wet canopy evaporation after rainfall contributed 41.8% of the wet season interception loss, but only 17.1% of the dry season interception loss. Wet canopy evaporation during rainfall accounted for 82.9% of the dry season interception loss, but only 58.2% of the wet season interception loss. Throughfall accounted for over 79.7% of the dry season precipitation and 76.1% of the wet season precipitation, possibly due to the change in gap fraction from 64.2% in the dry season to 50.0% in the wet season. The reduced canopy cover in the dry season also produced less stemflow than that of the wet season. The rainfall stemflow ratio ( P s f / P g was reduced from 12.6% to 8.9%. Despite relatively large changes in canopy structure, seasonal variation of the ratio of rainfall partitioned to interception was quite small. Rainfall interception loss accounted for nearly 12% of gross precipitation for both dry and wet seasons.

  20. Synchrony, compensatory dynamics, and the functional trait basis of phenological diversity in a tropical dry forest tree community: effects of rainfall seasonality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasky, Jesse R.; Uriarte, María; Muscarella, Robert

    2016-11-01

    Interspecific variation in phenology is a key axis of functional diversity, potentially mediating how communities respond to climate change. The diverse drivers of phenology act across multiple temporal scales. For example, abiotic constraints favor synchronous reproduction (positive covariance among species), while biotic interactions can favor synchrony or compensatory dynamics (negative covariance). We used wavelet analyses to examine phenology of community flower and seed production for 45 tree species across multiple temporal scales in a tropical dry forest in Puerto Rico with marked rainfall seasonality. We asked three questions: (1) do species exhibit synchronous or compensatory temporal dynamics in reproduction, (2) do interspecific differences in phenology reflect variable responses to rainfall, and (3) is interspecific variation in phenology and response to a major drought associated with functional traits that mediate responses to moisture? Community-level flowering was synchronized at seasonal scales (˜5-6 mo) and at short scales (˜1 mo, following rainfall). However, seed rain exhibited significant compensatory dynamics at intraseasonal scales (˜3 mo), suggesting interspecific variation in temporal niches. Species with large leaves (associated with sensitivity to water deficit) peaked in reproduction synchronously with the peak of seasonal rainfall (˜5 mo scale). By contrast, species with high wood specific gravity (associated with drought resistance) tended to flower in drier periods. Flowering of tall species and those with large leaves was most tightly linked to intraseasonal (˜2 mo scale) rainfall fluctuations. Although the 2015 drought dramatically reduced community-wide reproduction, functional traits were not associated with the magnitude of species-specific declines. Our results suggest opposing drivers of synchronous versus compensatory dynamics at different temporal scales. Phenology associations with functional traits indicated that

  1. Augmented Reality in Informal Learning Environments: Investigating Short-term and Long-term Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sommerauer, Peter; Müller, Oliver

    2018-01-01

    field experiment with 24 participants at a mathematics exhibition to measure the effect of AR on acquiring and retaining mathematical knowledge in an informal learning environment, both short-term (i.e., directly after visiting the exhibition) and long-term (i.e., two months after the museum visit). Our...

  2. Long- and short-term outcomes in renal allografts with deceased donors: A large recipient and donor genome-wide association study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez-Fuentes, Maria P; Franklin, Christopher; Rebollo-Mesa, Irene; Mollon, Jennifer; Delaney, Florence; Perucha, Esperanza; Stapleton, Caragh; Borrows, Richard; Byrne, Catherine; Cavalleri, Gianpiero; Clarke, Brendan; Clatworthy, Menna; Feehally, John; Fuggle, Susan; Gagliano, Sarah A; Griffin, Sian; Hammad, Abdul; Higgins, Robert; Jardine, Alan; Keogan, Mary; Leach, Timothy; MacPhee, Iain; Mark, Patrick B; Marsh, James; Maxwell, Peter; McKane, William; McLean, Adam; Newstead, Charles; Augustine, Titus; Phelan, Paul; Powis, Steve; Rowe, Peter; Sheerin, Neil; Solomon, Ellen; Stephens, Henry; Thuraisingham, Raj; Trembath, Richard; Topham, Peter; Vaughan, Robert; Sacks, Steven H; Conlon, Peter; Opelz, Gerhard; Soranzo, Nicole; Weale, Michael E; Lord, Graham M

    2018-02-01

    Improvements in immunosuppression have modified short-term survival of deceased-donor allografts, but not their rate of long-term failure. Mismatches between donor and recipient HLA play an important role in the acute and chronic allogeneic immune response against the graft. Perfect matching at clinically relevant HLA loci does not obviate the need for immunosuppression, suggesting that additional genetic variation plays a critical role in both short- and long-term graft outcomes. By combining patient data and samples from supranational cohorts across the United Kingdom and European Union, we performed the first large-scale genome-wide association study analyzing both donor and recipient DNA in 2094 complete renal transplant-pairs with replication in 5866 complete pairs. We studied deceased-donor grafts allocated on the basis of preferential HLA matching, which provided some control for HLA genetic effects. No strong donor or recipient genetic effects contributing to long- or short-term allograft survival were found outside the HLA region. We discuss the implications for future research and clinical application. © 2018 The Authors. American Journal of Transplantation published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  3. Distribution of Short-Term and Lifetime Predicted Risks of Cardiovascular Diseases in Peruvian Adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quispe, Renato; Bazo-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Burroughs Peña, Melissa S; Poterico, Julio A; Gilman, Robert H; Checkley, William; Bernabé-Ortiz, Antonio; Huffman, Mark D; Miranda, J Jaime

    2015-08-07

    Short-term risk assessment tools for prediction of cardiovascular disease events are widely recommended in clinical practice and are used largely for single time-point estimations; however, persons with low predicted short-term risk may have higher risks across longer time horizons. We estimated short-term and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk in a pooled population from 2 studies of Peruvian populations. Short-term risk was estimated using the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease Pooled Cohort Risk Equations. Lifetime risk was evaluated using the algorithm derived from the Framingham Heart Study cohort. Using previously published thresholds, participants were classified into 3 categories: low short-term and low lifetime risk, low short-term and high lifetime risk, and high short-term predicted risk. We also compared the distribution of these risk profiles across educational level, wealth index, and place of residence. We included 2844 participants (50% men, mean age 55.9 years [SD 10.2 years]) in the analysis. Approximately 1 of every 3 participants (34% [95% CI 33 to 36]) had a high short-term estimated cardiovascular disease risk. Among those with a low short-term predicted risk, more than half (54% [95% CI 52 to 56]) had a high lifetime predicted risk. Short-term and lifetime predicted risks were higher for participants with lower versus higher wealth indexes and educational levels and for those living in urban versus rural areas (PPeruvian adults were classified as low short-term risk but high lifetime risk. Vulnerable adults, such as those from low socioeconomic status and those living in urban areas, may need greater attention regarding cardiovascular preventive strategies. © 2015 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.

  4. Nonmonotonic and spatial-temporal dynamic slope effects on soil erosion during rainfall-runoff processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Songbai; Yu, Minghui; Chen, Li

    2017-02-01

    The slope effect on flow erosivity and soil erosion still remains a controversial issue. This theoretical framework explained and quantified the direct slope effect by coupling the modified Green-Ampt equation accounting for slope effect on infiltration, 1-D kinematic wave overland flow routing model, and WEPP soil erosion model. The flow velocity, runoff rate, shear stress, interrill, and rill erosion were calculated on 0°-60° isotropic slopes with equal horizontal projective length. The results show that, for short-duration rainfall events, the flow erosivity and erosion amounts exhibit a bell-shaped trend which first increase with slope gradient, and then decrease after a critical slope angle. The critical slope angles increase significantly or even vanish with increasing rainfall duration but are nearly independent of the slope projective length. The soil critical shear stress, rainfall intensity, and temporal patterns have great influences on the slope effect trend, while the other soil erosion parameters, soil type, hydraulic conductivity, and antecedent soil moisture have minor impacts. Neglecting the slope effect on infiltration would generate smaller erosion and reduce critical slope angles. The relative slope effect on soil erosion in physically based model WEPP was compared to those in the empirical models USLE and RUSLE. The trends of relative slope effect were found quite different, but the difference may diminish with increasing rainfall duration. Finally, relatively smaller critical slope angles could be obtained with the equal slope length and the range of variation provides a possible explanation for the different critical slope angles reported in previous studies.

  5. Raingauge-Based Rainfall Nowcasting with Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liong, Shie-Yui; He, Shan

    2010-05-01

    Rainfall forecasting and nowcasting are of great importance, for instance, in real-time flood early warning systems. Long term rainfall forecasting demands global climate, land, and sea data, thus, large computing power and storage capacity are required. Rainfall nowcasting's computing requirement, on the other hand, is much less. Rainfall nowcasting may use data captured by radar and/or weather stations. This paper presents the application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) on rainfall nowcasting using data observed at weather and/or rainfall stations. The study focuses on the North-East monsoon period (December, January and February) in Singapore. Rainfall and weather data from ten stations, between 2000 and 2006, were selected and divided into three groups for training, over-fitting test and validation of the ANN. Several neural network architectures were tried in the study. Two architectures, Backpropagation ANN and Group Method of Data Handling ANN, yielded better rainfall nowcasting, up to two hours, than the other architectures. The obtained rainfall nowcasts were then used by a catchment model to forecast catchment runoff. The results of runoff forecast are encouraging and promising.With ANN's high computational speed, the proposed approach may be deliverable for creating the real-time flood early warning system.

  6. Short-term synaptic plasticity and heterogeneity in neural systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejias, J. F.; Kappen, H. J.; Longtin, A.; Torres, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent results on neural dynamics and information processing which arise when considering several biophysical factors of interest, in particular, short-term synaptic plasticity and neural heterogeneity. The inclusion of short-term synaptic plasticity leads to enhanced long-term memory capacities, a higher robustness of memory to noise, and irregularity in the duration of the so-called up cortical states. On the other hand, considering some level of neural heterogeneity in neuron models allows neural systems to optimize information transmission in rate coding and temporal coding, two strategies commonly used by neurons to codify information in many brain areas. In all these studies, analytical approximations can be made to explain the underlying dynamics of these neural systems.

  7. Rainfall threshold definition using an entropy decision approach and radar data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Montesarchio

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Flash flood events are floods characterised by a very rapid response of basins to storms, often resulting in loss of life and property damage. Due to the specific space-time scale of this type of flood, the lead time available for triggering civil protection measures is typically short. Rainfall threshold values specify the amount of precipitation for a given duration that generates a critical discharge in a given river cross section. If the threshold values are exceeded, it can produce a critical situation in river sites exposed to alluvial risk. It is therefore possible to directly compare the observed or forecasted precipitation with critical reference values, without running online real-time forecasting systems. The focus of this study is the Mignone River basin, located in Central Italy. The critical rainfall threshold values are evaluated by minimising a utility function based on the informative entropy concept and by using a simulation approach based on radar data. The study concludes with a system performance analysis, in terms of correctly issued warnings, false alarms and missed alarms.

  8. Perceptions of short-term medical volunteer work: a qualitative study in Guatemala.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Tyler; Green, Heidi; Scandlyn, Jean; Kestler, Andrew

    2009-02-26

    Each year medical providers from wealthy countries participate in short-term medical volunteer work in resource-poor countries. Various authors have raised concern that such work has the potential to be harmful to recipient communities; however, the social science and medical literature contains little research into the perceptions of short-term medical volunteer work from the perspective of members of recipient communities. This exploratory study examines the perception of short-term medical volunteer work in Guatemala among groups of actors affected by or participating in these programs. The researchers conducted in-depth, semi-structured interviews with 72 individuals, including Guatemalan healthcare providers and health authorities, foreign medical providers, non-medical personnel working on health projects, and Guatemalan parents of children treated by a short-term volunteer group. Detailed notes and summaries of these interviews were uploaded, coded and annotated using Atlas.ti (Scientific Software Development GmbH, Berlin) to identify recurrent themes from the interviews. Informants commonly identified a need for increased access to medical services in Guatemala, and many believed that short-term medical volunteers are in a position to offer improved access to medical care in the communities where they serve. Informants most frequently cited appropriate patient selection and attention to payment systems as the best means to avoid creating dependence on foreign aid. The most frequent suggestion to improve short-term medical volunteer work was coordination with and respect for local Guatemalan healthcare providers and their communities, as insufficient understanding of the country's existing healthcare resources and needs may result in perceived harm to the recipient community. The perceived impact of short-term medical volunteer projects in Guatemala is highly variable and dependent upon the individual project. In this exploratory study, project

  9. The cross wavelet and wavelet coherence analysis of spatio-temporal rainfall-groundwater system in Pingtung plain, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Yuan-Chien; Yu, Hwa-Lung

    2013-04-01

    The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events has been observed recently in Taiwan. Particularly, Typhoon Morakot, Typhoon Fanapi, and Typhoon Megi consecutively brought record-breaking intensity and magnitude of rainfalls to different locations of Taiwan in these two years. However, records show the extreme rainfall events did not elevate the amount of annual rainfall accordingly. Conversely, the increasing frequency of droughts has also been occurring in Taiwan. The challenges have been confronted by governmental agencies and scientific communities to come up with effective adaptation strategies for natural disaster reduction and sustainable environment establishment. Groundwater has long been a reliable water source for a variety of domestic, agricultural, and industrial uses because of its stable quantity and quality. In Taiwan, groundwater accounts for the largest proportion of all water resources for about 40%. This study plans to identify and quantify the nonlinear relationship between precipitation and groundwater recharge, find the non-stationary time-frequency relations between the variations of rainfall and groundwater levels to understand the phase difference of time series. Groundwater level data and over-50-years hourly rainfall records obtained from 20 weather stations in Pingtung Plain, Taiwan has been collected. Extract the space-time pattern by EOF method, which is a decomposition of a signal or data set in terms of orthogonal basis functions determined from the data for both time series and spatial patterns, to identify the important spatial pattern of groundwater recharge and using cross wavelet and wavelet coherence method to identify the relationship between rainfall and groundwater levels. Results show that EOF method can specify the spatial-temporal patterns which represents certain geological characteristics and other mechanisms of groundwater, and the wavelet coherence method can identify general correlation between

  10. The Influence of Solar Activity on the Rainfall over India: Cycle-to ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The Influence of Solar Activity on the Rainfall over India: Cycle-to-Cycle Variations. K. M. Hiremath. Indian Institute of Astrophysics, Bangalore 560 034, India. e-mail: hiremath@iiap.res.in. Abstract. We use 130 years data for studying correlative effects due to solar cycle and activity phenomena on the occurrence of rainfall ...

  11. Qualitative similarities in the visual short-term memory of pigeons and people

    OpenAIRE

    Gibson, Brett; Wasserman, Edward; Luck, Steven J.

    2011-01-01

    Visual short-term memory plays a key role in guiding behavior, and individual differences in visual short-term memory capacity are strongly predictive of higher cognitive abilities. To provide a broader evolutionary context for understanding this memory system, we directly compared the behavior of pigeons and humans on a change detection task. Although pigeons had a lower storage capacity and a higher lapse rate than humans, both species stored multiple items in short-term memory and conforme...

  12. Short-term versus long-term contracting for uranium enrichment services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rudy, G.P.

    1990-01-01

    The US Department of Energy (US DOE) is the world's largest and most experienced supplier of uranium enrichment services. Through the late 1970s and early 1980s, emerging market forces transformed what was once a monopoly into a highly competitive industry. In the early 1980's the DOE lost market share. But as we enter the 1990s, new market forces have emerged. The US DOE believes a responsible balance between long-term and short-term contracting will be the key to success and the key to assuring the long-term health and reliability of the nuclear fuel industry. The US DOE intends to be in this nuclear business for a long time and will continue to offer reliable and responsive services second to none

  13. [Impulsiveness Among Short-Term Prisoners with Antisocial Personality Disorder].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Fabian U; Otte, Stefanie; Vasic, Nenad; Jäger, Markus; Dudeck, Manuela

    2015-07-01

    The study aimed to investigate the correlation between impulsiveness and the antisocial personality disorder among short-term prisoners. The impulsiveness was diagnosed by the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS). Short-term prisoners with antisocial personality disorder scored significant higher marks on the BIS total scale than those without any personality disorder. In detail, they scored higher marks on each subscale regarding attentional, motor and nonplanning impulsiveness. Moderate and high effects were calculated. It is to be considered to regard impulsivity as a conceptual component of antisociality. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  14. Potential breeding distributions of U.S. birds predicted with both short-term variability and long-term average climate data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; Flather, Curtis H; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Akçakaya, H Resit; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Albright, Thomas P; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

    2016-12-01

    Climate conditions, such as temperature or precipitation, averaged over several decades strongly affect species distributions, as evidenced by experimental results and a plethora of models demonstrating statistical relations between species occurrences and long-term climate averages. However, long-term averages can conceal climate changes that have occurred in recent decades and may not capture actual species occurrence well because the distributions of species, especially at the edges of their range, are typically dynamic and may respond strongly to short-term climate variability. Our goal here was to test whether bird occurrence models can be predicted by either covariates based on short-term climate variability or on long-term climate averages. We parameterized species distribution models (SDMs) based on either short-term variability or long-term average climate covariates for 320 bird species in the conterminous USA and tested whether any life-history trait-based guilds were particularly sensitive to short-term conditions. Models including short-term climate variability performed well based on their cross-validated area-under-the-curve AUC score (0.85), as did models based on long-term climate averages (0.84). Similarly, both models performed well compared to independent presence/absence data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (independent AUC of 0.89 and 0.90, respectively). However, models based on short-term variability covariates more accurately classified true absences for most species (73% of true absences classified within the lowest quarter of environmental suitability vs. 68%). In addition, they have the advantage that they can reveal the dynamic relationship between species and their environment because they capture the spatial fluctuations of species potential breeding distributions. With this information, we can identify which species and guilds are sensitive to climate variability, identify sites of high conservation value where climate

  15. Reinsurance by short-term reinsurers in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernhout, C. L. R.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The short-term reinsurance process usually involves three parties, namely the insurer, the reinsurer and the original policyholder, as the insurer cedes a part of the covered risk of the policyholder to the reinsurer. This research however addresses the perceptions of reinsurers regarding their reinsurance activities, where the reinsurer sells reinsurance to other insurance entities (viz. insurers and reinsurers, as well as buys reinsurance from other insurance entities. The crux of short-term reinsurance is therefore mutually loss sharing between the various insurance entities. The objective of this research focuses on the improvement of financial decision-making regarding the reinsurance operations of the reinsurers. To achieve this objective a literature study was undertaken to provide adequate background to compile a questionnaire for the empirical survey. The primary study embodies the perceptions of the South African short-term reinsurers regarding the following aspects: the various reasons why reinsurance occurs; the contracts / methods of reinsurance; the bases / forms of reinsurance; and the factors which determine the retention levels of a reinsurer. South Africa is classified as a developing economy, is a member of the BRICS countries and has an emerging market economy. The empirical results should therefore also be valuable to other countries which are classified similarly

  16. Frequency-specific insight into short-term memory capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurra, Matteo; Galli, Giulia; Pavone, Enea Francesco; Rossi, Alessandro; Rossi, Simone

    2016-07-01

    The digit span is one of the most widely used memory tests in clinical and experimental neuropsychology for reliably measuring short-term memory capacity. In the forward version, sequences of digits of increasing length have to be reproduced in the order in which they are presented, whereas in the backward version items must be reproduced in the reversed order. Here, we assessed whether transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) increases the memory span for digits of young and midlife adults. Imperceptibly weak electrical currents in the alpha (10 Hz), beta (20 Hz), theta (5 Hz), and gamma (40 Hz) range, as well as a sham stimulation, were delivered over the left posterior parietal cortex, a cortical region thought to sustain maintenance processes in short-term memory through oscillatory brain activity in the beta range. We showed a frequency-specific effect of beta-tACS that robustly increased the forward memory span of young, but not middle-aged, healthy individuals. The effect correlated with age: the younger the subjects, the greater the benefit arising from parietal beta stimulation. Our results provide evidence of a short-term memory capacity improvement in young adults by online frequency-specific tACS application. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  17. Random Modeling of Daily Rainfall and Runoff Using a Seasonal Model and Wavelet Denoising

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chien-ming Chou

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Instead of Fourier smoothing, this study applied wavelet denoising to acquire the smooth seasonal mean and corresponding perturbation term from daily rainfall and runoff data in traditional seasonal models, which use seasonal means for hydrological time series forecasting. The denoised rainfall and runoff time series data were regarded as the smooth seasonal mean. The probability distribution of the percentage coefficients can be obtained from calibrated daily rainfall and runoff data. For validated daily rainfall and runoff data, percentage coefficients were randomly generated according to the probability distribution and the law of linear proportion. Multiplying the generated percentage coefficient by the smooth seasonal mean resulted in the corresponding perturbation term. Random modeling of daily rainfall and runoff can be obtained by adding the perturbation term to the smooth seasonal mean. To verify the accuracy of the proposed method, daily rainfall and runoff data for the Wu-Tu watershed were analyzed. The analytical results demonstrate that wavelet denoising enhances the precision of daily rainfall and runoff modeling of the seasonal model. In addition, the wavelet denoising technique proposed in this study can obtain the smooth seasonal mean of rainfall and runoff processes and is suitable for modeling actual daily rainfall and runoff processes.

  18. Variational principles in terms of entransy for heat transfer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Mingtian

    2012-01-01

    A variational principle for heat conduction is formulated which results in the steady state heat conduction equation established from the Fourier law. Furthermore based on the thermodynamics in terms of entransy a more general functional is defined for incompressible fluids. We show that extremizing this functional gives rise to the state described by the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equations with vanishing substantive derivatives of the temperature and velocity field. In this sense one may conclude that this variational principle is consistent with the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equations. Therefore the variational principle developed in the present work demonstrates a great advantage over the minimum entropy production principle. -- Highlights: ► A variational principle for heat transfer of incompressible fluid is established in terms of entransy. ► For pure heat conduction the variational principle leads to the classical steady state heat conduction equation. ► For heat convection the variational principle is consistent with the Navier-Stokes-Fourier equations.

  19. Short-term memory in Down syndrome: applying the working memory model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarrold, C; Baddeley, A D

    2001-10-01

    This paper is divided into three sections. The first reviews the evidence for a verbal short-term memory deficit in Down syndrome. Existing research suggests that short-term memory for verbal information tends to be impaired in Down syndrome, in contrast to short-term memory for visual and spatial material. In addition, problems of hearing or speech do not appear to be a major cause of difficulties on tests of verbal short-term memory. This suggests that Down syndrome is associated with a specific memory problem, which we link to a potential deficit in the functioning of the 'phonological loop' of Baddeley's (1986) model of working memory. The second section considers the implications of a phonological loop problem. Because a reasonable amount is known about the normal functioning of the phonological loop, and of its role in language acquisition in typical development, we can make firm predictions as to the likely nature of the short-term memory problem in Down syndrome, and its consequences for language learning. However, we note that the existing evidence from studies with individuals with Down syndrome does not fit well with these predictions. This leads to the third section of the paper, in which we consider key questions to be addressed in future research. We suggest that there are two questions to be answered, which follow directly from the contradictory results outlined in the previous section. These are 'What is the precise nature of the verbal short-term memory deficit in Down syndrome', and 'What are the consequences of this deficit for learning'. We discuss ways in which these questions might be addressed in future work.

  20. Deterministic Approach for Estimating Critical Rainfall Threshold of Rainfall-induced Landslide in Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Ming-Chien; Tan, Chih-Hao; Chen, Mien-Min; Su, Tai-Wei

    2013-04-01

    Taiwan is an active mountain belt created by the oblique collision between the northern Luzon arc and the Asian continental margin. The inherent complexities of geological nature create numerous discontinuities through rock masses and relatively steep hillside on the island. In recent years, the increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme natural events due to global warming or climate change brought significant landslides. The causes of landslides in these slopes are attributed to a number of factors. As is well known, rainfall is one of the most significant triggering factors for landslide occurrence. In general, the rainfall infiltration results in changing the suction and the moisture of soil, raising the unit weight of soil, and reducing the shear strength of soil in the colluvium of landslide. The stability of landslide is closely related to the groundwater pressure in response to rainfall infiltration, the geological and topographical conditions, and the physical and mechanical parameters. To assess the potential susceptibility to landslide, an effective modeling of rainfall-induced landslide is essential. In this paper, a deterministic approach is adopted to estimate the critical rainfall threshold of the rainfall-induced landslide. The critical rainfall threshold is defined as the accumulated rainfall while the safety factor of the slope is equal to 1.0. First, the process of deterministic approach establishes the hydrogeological conceptual model of the slope based on a series of in-situ investigations, including geological drilling, surface geological investigation, geophysical investigation, and borehole explorations. The material strength and hydraulic properties of the model were given by the field and laboratory tests. Second, the hydraulic and mechanical parameters of the model are calibrated with the long-term monitoring data. Furthermore, a two-dimensional numerical program, GeoStudio, was employed to perform the modelling practice. Finally

  1. Analysis and prediction of rainfall trends over Bangladesh using Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and ARIMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Mohammad Atiqur; Yunsheng, Lou; Sultana, Nahid

    2017-08-01

    In this study, 60-year monthly rainfall data of Bangladesh were analysed to detect trends. Modified Mann-Kendall, Spearman's rho tests and Sen's slope estimators were applied to find the long-term annual, dry season and monthly trends. Sequential Mann-Kendall analysis was applied to detect the potential trend turning points. Spatial variations of the trends were examined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolation. AutoRegressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used for the country mean rainfall and for other two stations data which depicted the highest and the lowest trend in the Mann-Kendall and Spearman's rho tests. Results showed that there is no significant trend in annual rainfall pattern except increasing trends for Cox's Bazar, Khulna, Satkhira and decreasing trend for Srimagal areas. For the dry season, only Bogra area represented significant decreasing trend. Long-term monthly trends demonstrated a mixed pattern; both negative and positive changes were found from February to September. Comilla area showed a significant decreasing trend for consecutive 3 months while Rangpur and Khulna stations confirmed the significant rising trends for three different months in month-wise trends analysis. Rangpur station data gave a maximum increasing trend in April whereas a maximum decreasing trend was found in August for Comilla station. ARIMA models predict +3.26, +8.6 and -2.30 mm rainfall per year for the country, Cox's Bazar and Srimangal areas, respectively. However, all the test results and predictions revealed a good agreement among them in the study.

  2. Imaging rainfall infiltration processes with the time-lapse electrical resistivity imaging method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Zhengyuan; Jiang, Guoming; Zhang, Guibin; Zhang, Gang

    2017-04-01

    Electrical Resistivity Imaging (ERI) was carried out continuously for ten days to map the subsurface resistivity distribution along a potentially hazardous hillslope at the Jieshou Junior High School in Taoyuan, Taiwan. The inversions confirm the viability of ERI in tracking the movement of groundwater flow and rainfall infiltration by recording the variation of subsurface resistivity distribution. Meanwhile, relative-water-saturation (RWS) maps can be obtained from ERI images via Archie's Law, which provide a more intuitive reflection of the variation of subsurface rainfall infiltration and a more capable means of estimating the stability of a landslide body. What is more, we then found that the averaged RWS is significantly correlated with daily precipitation. Our observations indicate that real-time ERI is effective in monitoring subterraneous rainfall infiltration, and thereby in estimating the stability of a potential landslide body. When the agglomerate rainfall in the landslide slippage surface was infiltrated quickly without sustaining hydraulic pressure along the landslide slippage surface, the probability of landslides occurring was very low. On the contrary, the probability of landslides occurring could be increased due to the overpressure of pore fluids. Keywords Electrical Resistivity Imaging; Depth-of-Investigation; Archie's Law; Landslide Monitoring; Rainfall Infiltration; Preferential Path

  3. Solar UV Variations During the Decline of Cycle 23

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeLand, Matthew, T.; Cebula, Richard P.

    2011-01-01

    Characterization of temporal and spectral variations in solar ultraviolet irradiance over a solar cycle is essential for understanding the forcing of Earth's atmosphere and climate. Satellite measurements of solar UV variability for solar cycles 21, 22, and 23 show consistent solar cycle irradiance changes at key wavelengths (e.g. 205 nm, 250 nm) within instrumental uncertainties. All historical data sets also show the same relative spectral dependence for both short-term (rotational) and long-term (solar cycle) variations. Empirical solar irradiance models also produce long-term solar UV variations that agree well with observational data. Recent UV irradiance data from the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) and Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instruments covering the declining phase of Cycle 23 present a different picture oflong-term solar variations from previous results. Time series of SIM and SOLSTICE spectral irradiance data between 2003 and 2007 show solar variations that greatly exceed both previous measurements and predicted irradiance changes over this period, and the spectral dependence of the SIM and SOLSTICE variations during these years do not show features expected from solar physics theory. The use of SORCE irradiance variations in atmospheric models yields substantially different middle atmosphere ozone responses in both magnitude and vertical structure. However, short-term solar variability derived from SIM and SOLSTICE UV irradiance data is consistent with concurrent solar UV measurements from other instruments, as well as previous results, suggesting no change in solar physics. Our analysis of short-term solar variability is much less sensitive to residual instrument response changes than the observations of long-term variations. The SORCE long-term UV results can be explained by under-correction of instrument response changes during the first few years of measurements

  4. Effect of zinc supplementation of pregnant rats on short-term and long-term memory of their offspring

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, M.A.; Ghotbeddin, Z.; Parham, G.H.

    2007-01-01

    To see the dose dependent effects of zinc chloride on the short-term and long-term memory in a shuttle box (rats). Six pair adult wistar rats were taken for this experiment. One group of pregnant rats received a daily oral dose of 20 mg/kg Zn as zinc chloride and the remaining groups received a daily oral dose of (30, 50, 70,100 mg/kg) zinc chloride for two weeks by gavage. One month after birth, a shuttle box was used to test short-term and long-term memory. Two criteria were considered to behavioral test, including latency in entering dark chamber and time spent in the dark chamber. This experiment showed that oral administration of ZnCl/sub 2/ with (20, 30, 50 mg/kg/day) doses after 2 weeks at the stage of pregnancy, can improve the working memory of their offspring (p<0.05). Where as ZnCl/sub 2/ with 30 mg/kg/day dose has been more effective than other doses (p<0.001). But rat which received ZnCl/sub 2/ with 100 mg/kg/day at the stage of pregnancy, has shown significant impairment in working (short-term) memory of their offspring (p<0.05) and there was no significant difference in reference (long-term) memory 3 for any of groups. This study has demonstrated that zinc chloride consumption with 30 mg/kg/day dose for two weeks at the stage of pregnancy in rats, has positive effect on short-term memory on their offspring. But consumption of enhanced zinc 100 mg/kg/day in pregnant rats can cause short-term memory impairment. On the other hand, zinc supplementation such as zinc chloride has no effect on long-term memory. (author)

  5. Short-term memory in zebrafish (Danio rerio).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jason; Fernandes, Yohaan; Gerlai, Robert

    2014-08-15

    Learning and memory represent perhaps the most complex behavioral phenomena. Although their underlying mechanisms have been extensively analyzed, only a fraction of the potential molecular components have been identified. The zebrafish has been proposed as a screening tool with which mechanisms of complex brain functions may be systematically uncovered. However, as a relative newcomer in behavioral neuroscience, the zebrafish has not been well characterized for its cognitive and mnemonic features, thus learning and/or memory screens with adults have not been feasible. Here we study short-term memory of adult zebrafish. We show animated images of conspecifics (the stimulus) to the experimental subject during 1 min intervals on ten occasions separated by different (2, 4, 8 or 16 min long) inter-stimulus intervals (ISI), a between subject experimental design. We quantify the distance of the subject from the image presentation screen during each stimulus presentation interval, during each of the 1-min post-stimulus intervals immediately following the stimulus presentations and during each of the 1-min intervals furthest away from the last stimulus presentation interval and just before the next interval (pre-stimulus interval), respectively. Our results demonstrate significant retention of short-term memory even in the longest ISI group but suggest no acquisition of reference memory. Because in the employed paradigm both stimulus presentation and behavioral response quantification is computer automated, we argue that high-throughput screening for drugs or mutations that alter short-term memory performance of adult zebrafish is now becoming feasible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. 34 CFR 664.11 - What is a short-term seminar project?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... short-term seminar project is— (a) Designed to help integrate international studies into an institution... 34 Education 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What is a short-term seminar project? 664.11 Section 664.11 Education Regulations of the Offices of the Department of Education (Continued) OFFICE OF...

  7. Variations and Trends in Global and Regional Precipitation Based on the 22-year GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) and Three-year TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) Data Sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adler, R.; Curtis, S.; Huffman, G.; Bolvin, D.; Nelkin, E.

    2001-05-01

    This paper gives an overview of the analysis of global precipitation over the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to study global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in global precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. The global trend analysis must be interpreted carefully, however, because the inhomogeneity of the data set makes detecting a small signal very difficult, especially over this relatively short period. The relation of global (and tropical) total precipitation and ENSO events is quantified with no significant signal when land and ocean are combined. Identifying regional trends in precipitation may be more practical. From 1979 to 2000 the tropics have pattern of regional rainfall trends that has an ENSO-like pattern with features of both the El Nino and La Nina. This feature is related to a possible trend in the frequency of ENSO events (either El Nino or La Nina) over the past 20 years. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENSO variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The El Nino and La Nina mean anomalies are near mirror images of each other and when combined produce an ENSO signal with significant spatial continuity over large distances. A number of the features are shown to extend into high latitudes. Positive anomalies extend in the Southern Hemisphere (S.H.) from the Pacific southeastward across Chile and Argentina into the south Atlantic Ocean. In the Northern Hemisphere (N.H.) the counterpart feature extends across the southern U.S. and Atlantic Ocean into Europe

  8. Aspects if stochastic models for short-term hydropower scheduling and bidding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Belsnes, Michael Martin [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Follestad, Turid [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Wolfgang, Ove [Sintef Energy, Trondheim (Norway); Fosso, Olav B. [Dep. of electric power engineering NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)

    2012-07-01

    This report discusses challenges met when turning from deterministic to stochastic decision support models for short-term hydropower scheduling and bidding. The report describes characteristics of the short-term scheduling and bidding problem, different market and bidding strategies, and how a stochastic optimization model can be formulated. A review of approaches for stochastic short-term modelling and stochastic modelling for the input variables inflow and market prices is given. The report discusses methods for approximating the predictive distribution of uncertain variables by scenario trees. Benefits of using a stochastic over a deterministic model are illustrated by a case study, where increased profit is obtained to a varying degree depending on the reservoir filling and price structure. Finally, an approach for assessing the effect of using a size restricted scenario tree to approximate the predictive distribution for stochastic input variables is described. The report is a summary of the findings of Work package 1 of the research project #Left Double Quotation Mark#Optimal short-term scheduling of wind and hydro resources#Right Double Quotation Mark#. The project aims at developing a prototype for an operational stochastic short-term scheduling model. Based on the investigations summarized in the report, it is concluded that using a deterministic equivalent formulation of the stochastic optimization problem is convenient and sufficient for obtaining a working prototype. (author)

  9. 22 CFR 62.21 - Short-term scholars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Short-term scholars. 62.21 Section 62.21 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AND EXCHANGES EXCHANGE VISITOR PROGRAM Specific... programs, confer on common problems and projects, and promote professional relationships and communications...

  10. Scalable data-driven short-term traffic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friso, K.; Wismans, L. J.J.; Tijink, M. B.

    2017-01-01

    Short-term traffic prediction has a lot of potential for traffic management. However, most research has traditionally focused on either traffic models-which do not scale very well to large networks, computationally-or on data-driven methods for freeways, leaving out urban arterials completely. Urban

  11. Short-Term Saved Leave Scheme

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    As announced at the meeting of the Standing Concertation Committee (SCC) on 26 June 2007 and in http://Bulletin No. 28/2007, the existing Saved Leave Scheme will be discontinued as of 31 December 2007. Staff participating in the Scheme will shortly receive a contract amendment stipulating the end of financial contributions compensated by save leave. Leave already accumulated on saved leave accounts can continue to be taken in accordance with the rules applicable to the current scheme. A new system of saved leave will enter into force on 1 January 2008 and will be the subject of a new implementation procedure entitled "Short-term saved leave scheme" dated 1 January 2008. At its meeting on 4 December 2007, the SCC agreed to recommend the Director-General to approve this procedure, which can be consulted on the HR Department’s website at the following address: https://cern.ch/hr-services/services-Ben/sls_shortterm.asp All staff wishing to participate in the new scheme a...

  12. Short-Term Saved Leave Scheme

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2007-01-01

    As announced at the meeting of the Standing Concertation Committee (SCC) on 26 June 2007 and in http://Bulletin No. 28/2007, the existing Saved Leave Scheme will be discontinued as of 31 December 2007. Staff participating in the Scheme will shortly receive a contract amendment stipulating the end of financial contributions compensated by save leave. Leave already accumulated on saved leave accounts can continue to be taken in accordance with the rules applicable to the current scheme. A new system of saved leave will enter into force on 1 January 2008 and will be the subject of a new im-plementation procedure entitled "Short-term saved leave scheme" dated 1 January 2008. At its meeting on 4 December 2007, the SCC agreed to recommend the Director-General to approve this procedure, which can be consulted on the HR Department’s website at the following address: https://cern.ch/hr-services/services-Ben/sls_shortterm.asp All staff wishing to participate in the new scheme ...

  13. Maternal haemoglobin and short-term neonatal outcome in preterm neonates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elodie Savajols

    Full Text Available To determine whether there is a significant association between maternal haemoglobin measured before delivery and short-term neonatal outcome in very preterm neonates.We included prospectively all live births occurring from 25 to 32+6 weeks of gestation in a tertiary care centre between January 1(st 2009 and December 31(st 2011. Outborn infants and infants presenting with lethal malformations were excluded. Three hundred and thirty-nine mothers and 409 infants met the inclusion criteria. For each mother-infant pair a prospective record of epidemiologic data was performed and maternal haemoglobin concentration recorded within 24 hours before delivery was retrospectively researched. Maternal haemoglobin was divided into quartiles with the second and the third one regarded as reference as they were composed of normal haemoglobin values. Short-term outcome was defined as poor in case of death during hospital stay and/or grades III/IV intraventricular haemorrhage and/or periventricular leukomalacia and/or necessity of ventriculoperitoneal shunt.The global rate of poor short-term neonatal outcome was 11.4% and was significantly associated with low maternal haemoglobin values. This association remained significant after adjustment for antenatal corticosteroids therapy, gestational age, parity, mechanism of preterm birth, mode of delivery and birth weight (aOR = 2.97 CI 95% [1.36-6.47]. There was no relation between short-term neonatal outcome and high maternal haemoglobin concentration values.We show that low maternal haemoglobin concentration at delivery is an independent risk factor for poor short-term neonatal outcome in very preterm neonates. This study is one of the first to show such an association within the preterm population.

  14. Transfer of Information from Short- to Long-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modigliani, Vito; Seamon, John G.

    1974-01-01

    The present study examined current hypotheses concerning information transfer from short-term memory (STM) to long-term memory (LTM) using a Peterson STM task with word triplets presented over retention intervals of 0, 3, 6, 9, and 18 sec. (Editor)

  15. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  16. Short- and long-term memory: differential involvement of neurotransmitter systems and signal transduction cascades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MÔNICA R.M. VIANNA

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available Since William James (1890 first distinguished primary from secondary memory, equivalent to short- and long-term memory, respectively, it has been assumed that short-term memory processes are in charge of cognition while long-term memory is being consolidated. From those days a major question has been whether short-term memory is merely a initial phase of long-term memory, or a separate phenomena. Recent experiments have shown that many treatments with specific molecular actions given into the hippocampus and related brain areas after one-trial avoidance learning can effectively cancel short-term memory without affecting long-term memory formation. This shows that short-term memory and long-term memory involve separate mechanisms and are independently processed. Other treatments, however, influence both memory types similarly, suggesting links between both at the receptor and at the post-receptor level, which should not be surprising as they both deal with nearly the same sensorimotor representations. This review examines recent advances in short- and long-term memory mechanisms based on the effect of intra-hippocampal infusion of drugs acting upon neurotransmitter and signal transduction systems on both memory types.

  17. Dispositional optimism as predictor of outcome in short- and long-term psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heinonen, Erkki; Heiskanen, Tiia; Lindfors, Olavi; Härkäpää, Kristiina; Knekt, Paul

    2017-09-01

    Dispositional optimism predicts various beneficial outcomes in somatic health and treatment, but has been little studied in psychotherapy. This study investigated whether an optimistic disposition differentially predicts patients' ability to benefit from short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. A total of 326 adult outpatients with mood and/or anxiety disorder were randomized into short-term (solution-focused or short-term psychodynamic) or long-term psychodynamic therapy and followed up for 3 years. Dispositional optimism was assessed by patients at baseline with the self-rated Life Orientation Test (LOT) questionnaire. Outcome was assessed at baseline and seven times during the follow-up, in terms of depressive (BDI, HDRS), anxiety (SCL-90-ANX, HARS), and general psychiatric symptoms (SCL-90-GSI), all seven follow-up points including patients' self-reports and three including interview-based measures. Lower dispositional optimism predicted faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy. Higher optimism predicted equally rapid and eventually greater benefits in long-term, as compared to short-term, psychotherapy. Weaker optimism appeared to predict sustenance of problems early in long-term therapy. Stronger optimism seems to best facilitate engaging in and benefiting from a long-term therapy process. Closer research might clarify the psychological processes responsible for these effects and help fine-tune both briefer and longer interventions to optimize treatment effectiveness for particular patients and their psychological qualities. Weaker dispositional optimism does not appear to inhibit brief therapy from effecting symptomatic recovery. Patients with weaker optimism do not seem to gain added benefits from long-term therapy, but instead may be susceptible to prolonged psychiatric symptoms in the early stages of long-term therapy. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  18. Deficits in verbal long-term memory and learning in children with poor phonological short-term memory skills.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gathercole, Susan E; Briscoe, Josie; Thorn, Annabel; Tiffany, Claire

    2008-03-01

    Possible links between phonological short-term memory and both longer term memory and learning in 8-year-old children were investigated in this study. Performance on a range of tests of long-term memory and learning was compared for a group of 16 children with poor phonological short-term memory skills and a comparison group of children of the same age with matched nonverbal reasoning abilities but memory scores in the average range. The low-phonological-memory group were impaired on longer term memory and learning tasks that taxed memory for arbitrary verbal material such as names and nonwords. However, the two groups performed at comparable levels on tasks requiring the retention of visuo-spatial information and of meaningful material and at carrying out prospective memory tasks in which the children were asked to carry out actions at a future point in time. The results are consistent with the view that poor short-term memory function impairs the longer-term retention and ease of learning of novel verbal material.

  19. Rainfall Downscaling Conditional on Upper-air Variables: Assessing Rainfall Statistics in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langousis, Andreas; Deidda, Roberto; Marrocu, Marino; Kaleris, Vassilios

    2014-05-01

    Due to its intermittent and highly variable character, and the modeling parameterizations used, precipitation is one of the least well reproduced hydrologic variables by both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). This is especially the case at a regional level (where hydrologic risks are assessed) and at small temporal scales (e.g. daily) used to run hydrologic models. In an effort to remedy those shortcomings and assess the effect of climate change on rainfall statistics at hydrologically relevant scales, Langousis and Kaleris (2013) developed a statistical framework for simulation of daily rainfall intensities conditional on upper air variables. The developed downscaling scheme was tested using atmospheric data from the ERA-Interim archive (http://www.ecmwf.int/research/era/do/get/index), and daily rainfall measurements from western Greece, and was proved capable of reproducing several statistical properties of actual rainfall records, at both annual and seasonal levels. This was done solely by conditioning rainfall simulation on a vector of atmospheric predictors, properly selected to reflect the relative influence of upper-air variables on ground-level rainfall statistics. In this study, we apply the developed framework for conditional rainfall simulation using atmospheric data from different GCM/RCM combinations. This is done using atmospheric data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembleseu.metoffice.com), and daily rainfall measurements for an intermediate-sized catchment in Italy; i.e. the Flumendosa catchment. Since GCM/RCM products are suited to reproduce the local climatology in a statistical sense (i.e. in terms of relative frequencies), rather than ensuring a one-to-one temporal correspondence between observed and simulated fields (i.e. as is the case for ERA-interim reanalysis data), we proceed in three steps: a) we use statistical tools to establish a linkage between ERA-Interim upper-air atmospheric forecasts and

  20. Detecting Climate Variability in Tropical Rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, W.

    2004-05-01

    El Niño is substantially smaller due to decreased rainfall in the west Pacific partially canceling increases in the central and east Pacific. These differences are not limited to the long-term merged rainfall products using infrared data, but are also exist in state-of-the-art rainfall retrievals from the active and passive microwave sensors on board the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). For example, large differences exist in the response of tropical mean rainfall retrieved from the TRMM microwave imager (TMI) 2A12 algorithm and the precipitation radar (PR) 2A25 algorithm to the 1997/98 El Niño. To assist scientists attempting to wade through the vast array of climate rainfall products currently available, and to help them determine whether systematic biases in these rainfall products impact the conclusions of a given study, we have developed a Climate Rainfall Data Center (CRDC). The CRDC web site (rain.atmos.colostate.edu/CRDC) provides climate researchers information on the various rainfall datasets available as well as access to experts in the field of satellite rainfall retrievals to assist them in the appropriate selection and use of climate rainfall products.

  1. Insensitivity of visual short-term memory to irrelevant visual information

    OpenAIRE

    Andrade, Jackie; Kemps, Eva; Werniers, Yves; May, Jon; Szmalec, Arnaud

    2002-01-01

    Several authors have hypothesised that visuo-spatial working memory is functionally analogous to verbal working memory. Irrelevant background speech impairs verbal short-term memory. We investigated whether irrelevant visual information has an analogous effect on visual short-term memory, using a dynamic visual noise (DVN) technique known to disrupt visual imagery (Quinn & McConnell, 1996a). Experiment 1 replicated the effect of DVN on pegword imagery. Experiments 2 and 3 showed no effect of ...

  2. Distraction in Verbal Short-Term Memory: Insights from Developmental Differences

    OpenAIRE

    Elliott, Emily; Hughes, Robert W.; Briganti, A; Joseph, Tanya Nicolette; Marsh, John Everett; Macken, William J.

    2016-01-01

    The contribution of two mechanisms of auditory distraction in verbal serial short-term memory-interference with the serial rehearsal processes used to support short-term recall and general attentional diversion-was investigated by exploiting differences in auditory distraction in children and adults. Experiment 1 showed that serial rehearsal plays a role in children's as well as adults' distractibility: Auditory distraction from irrelevant speech was greater for both children and adults as th...

  3. Short-Term and Long-Term Educational Mobility of Families: A Two-Sex Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Xi; Mare, Robert D

    2017-02-01

    We use a multigenerational perspective to investigate how families reproduce and pass their educational advantages to succeeding generations. Unlike traditional mobility studies that have typically focused on one-sex influences from fathers to sons, we rely on a two-sex approach that accounts for interactions between males and females-the process in which males and females mate and have children with those of similar educational statuses and jointly determine the educational status attainment of their offspring. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we approach this issue from both a short-term and a long-term perspective. For the short term, grandparents' educational attainments have a direct association with grandchildren's education as well as an indirect association that is mediated by parents' education and demographic behaviors. For the long term, initial educational advantages of families may benefit as many as three subsequent generations, but such advantages are later offset by the lower fertility of highly educated persons. Yet, all families eventually achieve the same educational distribution of descendants because of intermarriages between families of high- and low-education origin.

  4. A neuromorphic circuit mimicking biological short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzegarjalali, Saeid; Parker, Alice C

    2016-08-01

    Research shows that the way we remember things for a few seconds is a different mechanism from the way we remember things for a longer time. Short-term memory is based on persistently firing neurons, whereas storing information for a longer time is based on strengthening the synapses or even forming new neural connections. Information about location and appearance of an object is segregated and processed by separate neurons. Furthermore neurons can continue firing using different mechanisms. Here, we have designed a biomimetic neuromorphic circuit that mimics short-term memory by firing neurons, using biological mechanisms to remember location and shape of an object. Our neuromorphic circuit has a hybrid architecture. Neurons are designed with CMOS 45nm technology and synapses are designed with carbon nanotubes (CNT).

  5. Short-term depression and transient memory in sensory cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillary, Grant; Heydt, Rüdiger von der; Niebur, Ernst

    2017-12-01

    Persistent neuronal activity is usually studied in the context of short-term memory localized in central cortical areas. Recent studies show that early sensory areas also can have persistent representations of stimuli which emerge quickly (over tens of milliseconds) and decay slowly (over seconds). Traditional positive feedback models cannot explain sensory persistence for at least two reasons: (i) They show attractor dynamics, with transient perturbations resulting in a quasi-permanent change of system state, whereas sensory systems return to the original state after a transient. (ii) As we show, those positive feedback models which decay to baseline lose their persistence when their recurrent connections are subject to short-term depression, a common property of excitatory connections in early sensory areas. Dual time constant network behavior has also been implemented by nonlinear afferents producing a large transient input followed by much smaller steady state input. We show that such networks require unphysiologically large onset transients to produce the rise and decay observed in sensory areas. Our study explores how memory and persistence can be implemented in another model class, derivative feedback networks. We show that these networks can operate with two vastly different time courses, changing their state quickly when new information is coming in but retaining it for a long time, and that these capabilities are robust to short-term depression. Specifically, derivative feedback networks with short-term depression that acts differentially on positive and negative feedback projections are capable of dynamically changing their time constant, thus allowing fast onset and slow decay of responses without requiring unrealistically large input transients.

  6. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-02-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the fourth quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service

  7. Self-reported immature defense style as a predictor of outcome in short-term and long-term psychotherapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laaksonen, Maarit A; Sirkiä, Carlos; Knekt, Paul; Lindfors, Olavi

    2014-07-01

    Identification of pretreatment patient characteristics predictive of psychotherapy outcome could help to guide treatment choices. This study evaluates patients' initial level of immature defense style as a predictor of the outcome of short-term versus long-term psychotherapy. In the Helsinki Psychotherapy Study, 326 adult outpatients with mood or anxiety disorder were randomized to individual short-term (psychodynamic or solution-focused) or long-term (psychodynamic) psychotherapy. Their defense style was assessed at baseline using the 88-item Defense Style Questionnaire and classified as low or high around the median value of the respective score. Both specific (Beck Depression Inventory [BDI], Hamilton Depression Rating Scale [HDRS], Symptom Check List Anxiety Scale [SCL-90-Anx], Hamilton Anxiety Rating Scale [HARS]) and global (Symptom Check List Global Severity Index [SCL-90-GSI], Global Assessment of Functioning Scale [GAF]) psychiatric symptoms were measured at baseline and 3-7 times during a 3-year follow-up. Patients with high use of immature defense style experienced greater symptom reduction in long-term than in short-term psychotherapy by the end of the 3-year follow-up (50% vs. 34%). Patients with low use of immature defense style experienced faster symptom reduction in short-term than in long-term psychotherapy during the first year of follow-up (34% vs. 19%). Knowledge of patients' initial level of immature defense style may potentially be utilized in tailoring treatments. Further research on defense styles as outcome predictors in psychotherapies of different types is needed.

  8. Measuring Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Brochure provides and overview of the analysis and results. Readers interested in an in-depth discussion of methodology are referred to the MOSES Working Paper.

  9. Short-term feeding strategies and pork quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geesink, G.H.; Buren, van R.G.C.; Savenije, B.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Ducro, B.J.; Palen, van der J.G.P.; Hemke, G.

    2004-01-01

    Two experiments were done to determine whether short-term supplementation (5 days pre-slaughter) with magnesium acetate, or a combination of magnesium acetate, tryptophan, vitamin E and vitamin C would improve pork quality. In the first experiment the pigs (Pietrain x Yorkshire, n = 96) were fed a

  10. Effect of Short-Term Study Abroad Programs on Students' Cultural Adaptability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mapp, Susan C.

    2012-01-01

    The number of U.S. students studying abroad has been growing, particularly those participating in short-term trips. However, literature on the effect of these short-term trips is lacking. The purpose of this study was to assess quantitatively the effect on bachelor students' cross-cultural adaptability using a pre-post design. Significant changes…

  11. Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, J. Brent; Robertson, Franklin R.; Funk, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

  12. Robust Short-Term Memory without Synaptic Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J.; Torres, Joaquin J.

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can ??? as a gradual modification of synaptic weights ??? since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining inf...

  13. PENGARUH KEDALAMAN AIR TERHADAP SHORT TERM MEMORY DAN KONSUMSI ENERGI PADA PENYELAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rini Dharmastiti

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini akan melihat pengaruh kedalaman air terhadap short term memory dan konsumsi energi penyelam. Penelitian ini mengambil sampel 10 mahasiswa pria dan 5 wanita. Pengukuran performansi short term memory dilakukan dengan cara setiap obyek diperlihatkan deretan 7 angka acak yang diberikan selama 5 detik dan setelah 15 detik kemudian dilakukan pemanggilan kembali informasi yang baru saja diberikan. Setiap obyek diuji sebangak 30 kali untuk setiap kedalaman (1 m; 2,5 m; dan 4 m. Pengukuran konsumsi energi dilakukan dengan menghitung denyut jantung menggunakan metode palpasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa semakin meningkat kedalaman air, maka performasi short term memory penyelam tersebut semakin menurun.  Penurunan ini berlaku untuk pria dan wanita. Penambahan kedalaman ini juga meningkatkan konsumsi energi baik pada pria maupun wanita. Perbedaan jenis kelamin mempengaruhi performansi short term memory secara signifikan. Pria memiliki performansi rata-rata short term memory sebesar 91,67% pada kedalaman 1 m, 90,67% pada kedalaman 2,5 m, dan 86,33% pada kedalaman 4 m. Sedangkan wanita memiliki performansi rata-rata sebesar 86% pada kedalaman 1 m, 84% pada kedalaman 2,5 m, dan 80,67% pada kedalaman 4 m. Rata-rata konsumsi energi pria adalah 3,19 kkal, 3,34 kkal, dan 3,65 kkal pada kedalaman 1 m; 2,5 m; dan 4 m berturut-turut. Sedangkan rata-rata konsumsi energi wanita adalah 3,81 kkal, 4,07 kkal, dan 4,54 kkal pada kedalaman yang sama dengan pria.     Kata kunci : tekanan, kedalaman air, performansi short term memory, konsumsi energi.       This research is to observe water depth effects on short term memory and energy expenditure of diver. This research objects are 10 male and 5 female students. Short term memory performance measurement held by every object has been shown 7 random numerics (as information for 5 seconds and after 15 seconds later they write down the information on a paper. Every object got 30 tests for every

  14. Short-Term Depression, Temporal Summation, and Onset Inhibition Shape Interval Tuning in Midbrain Neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Christa A.

    2014-01-01

    A variety of synaptic mechanisms can contribute to single-neuron selectivity for temporal intervals in sensory stimuli. However, it remains unknown how these mechanisms interact to establish single-neuron sensitivity to temporal patterns of sensory stimulation in vivo. Here we address this question in a circuit that allows us to control the precise temporal patterns of synaptic input to interval-tuned neurons in behaviorally relevant ways. We obtained in vivo intracellular recordings under multiple levels of current clamp from midbrain neurons in the mormyrid weakly electric fish Brienomyrus brachyistius during stimulation with electrosensory pulse trains. To reveal the excitatory and inhibitory inputs onto interval-tuned neurons, we then estimated the synaptic conductances underlying responses. We found short-term depression in excitatory and inhibitory pathways onto all interval-tuned neurons. Short-interval selectivity was associated with excitation that depressed less than inhibition at short intervals, as well as temporally summating excitation. Long-interval selectivity was associated with long-lasting onset inhibition. We investigated tuning after separately nullifying the contributions of temporal summation and depression, and found the greatest diversity of interval selectivity among neurons when both mechanisms were at play. Furthermore, eliminating the effects of depression decreased sensitivity to directional changes in interval. These findings demonstrate that variation in depression and summation of excitation and inhibition helps to establish tuning to behaviorally relevant intervals in communication signals, and that depression contributes to neural coding of interval sequences. This work reveals for the first time how the interplay between short-term plasticity and temporal summation mediates the decoding of temporal sequences in awake, behaving animals. PMID:25339741

  15. Short-term scheduling of an open-pit mine with multiple objectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blom, Michelle; Pearce, Adrian R.; Stuckey, Peter J.

    2017-05-01

    This article presents a novel algorithm for the generation of multiple short-term production schedules for an open-pit mine, in which several objectives, of varying priority, characterize the quality of each solution. A short-term schedule selects regions of a mine site, known as 'blocks', to be extracted in each week of a planning horizon (typically spanning 13 weeks). Existing tools for constructing these schedules use greedy heuristics, with little optimization. To construct a single schedule in which infrastructure is sufficiently utilized, with production grades consistently close to a desired target, a planner must often run these heuristics many times, adjusting parameters after each iteration. A planner's intuition and experience can evaluate the relative quality and mineability of different schedules in a way that is difficult to automate. Of interest to a short-term planner is the generation of multiple schedules, extracting available ore and waste in varying sequences, which can then be manually compared. This article presents a tool in which multiple, diverse, short-term schedules are constructed, meeting a range of common objectives without the need for iterative parameter adjustment.

  16. Comparative study of short- and long-term indoor radon measurements

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Jarallah, M.I. [Department of Physics, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261 (Saudi Arabia)], E-mail: mibrahim@kfupm.edu.sa; Fazal-ur-Rehman,; Abdalla, Khalid [Department of Physics, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, Dhahran 31261 (Saudi Arabia)

    2008-08-15

    Short-term indoor radon measurements are used widely. Therefore, it is interesting to find out a correlation between these measurements and long-term measurements which reflect a better average radon concentration of individual measurement. To find the correlation between the two measurements of indoor radon concentrations at low radon levels, a study was carried out at 34 locations of King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals (KFUPM), Dhahran, Saudi Arabia using active and passive methods. In the short-term active method, a radon gas analyzer (AlphaGUARD) was used for a duration of 24 h in each measurement. In the long-term passive method, CR-39 based radon dosimeters were utilized for a period of 6 months, from January 2006 to June 2006. The short-term active measurements showed that the average, minimum and maximum radon concentrations were 19, 8 and 58Bqm{sup -3}, respectively, with a standard deviation of 8.6Bqm{sup -3}. The long-term passive measurements showed that the average, minimum and maximum radon concentrations were 25, 10 and 67Bqm{sup -3}, respectively, with a standard deviation of 12Bqm{sup -3}. The two measurements showed a poor correlation (R{sup 2}=0.38). The long-term measurements showed on the average higher concentrations by a factor of 1.3.

  17. Chinese L1 children's English L2 verb morphology over time: individual variation in long-term outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paradis, Johanne; Tulpar, Yasemin; Arppe, Antti

    2016-05-01

    This study examined accuracy in production and grammaticality judgements of verb morphology by eighteen Chinese-speaking children learning English as a second language (L2) followed longitudinally from four to six years of exposure to English, and who began to learn English at age 4;2. Children's growth in accuracy with verb morphology reached a plateau by six years, where 11/18 children did not display native-speaker levels of accuracy for one or more morphemes. Variation in children's accuracy with verb morphology was predicted by their English vocabulary size and verbal short-term memories primarily, and quality and quantity of English input at home secondarily. This study shows that even very young L2 learners might not all catch up to native speakers in this time frame and that non-age factors play a role in determining individual variation in child L2 learners' long-term outcomes with English morphology.

  18. Analysis of Spatiotemporal Statistical Properties of Rainfall in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mascaro, G.

    2016-12-01

    The analysis of the rainfall statistical properties at multiple spatiotemporal scales is a necessary preliminary step to support modeling of urban hydrology, including flood prediction and simulation of impacts of land use changes. In this contribution, the rainfall statistical properties are analyzed in the Phoenix Metropolitan area and its surroundings ( 29600 km2) in Arizona using observations from 310 gauges of the Flood Control District of the Maricopa County network. Different techniques are applied to investigate the rainfall properties at temporal scales from 1 min to years and to quantify the associated spatial variability. Results reveal the following. The rainfall regime is characterized by high interannual variability, which is partially explained by teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation, and marked seasonality, with two maxima in the monsoon season from July to September and in winter from November to March. Elevation has a significant control on seasonal rainfall accumulation, strength of thermal convective activity during the monsoon, and peak occurrence of the rainfall diurnal cycle present in summer. The spatial correlation of wintertime rainfall is high even at short aggregation times (cells).

  19. Short-term memory load and pronunciation rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweickert, Richard; Hayt, Cathrin

    1988-01-01

    In a test of short-term memory recall, two subjects attempted to recall various lists. For unpracticed subjects, the time it took to read the list is a better predictor of immediate recall than the number of items on the list. For practiced subjects, the two predictors do about equally well. If the items that must be recalled are unfamiliar, it is advantageous to keep the items short to pronounce. On the other hand, if the same items will be encountered over and over again, it is advantageous to make them distinctive, even at the cost of adding to the number of syllables.

  20. Implementation of short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L; Joensen, A; Giebel, G [and others

    1999-03-01

    This paper will giver a general overview of the results from a EU JOULE funded project (`Implementing short-term prediction at utilities`, JOR3-CT95-0008). Reference will be given to specialised papers where applicable. The goal of the project was to implement wind farm power output prediction systems in operational environments at a number of utilities in Europe. Two models were developed, one by Risoe and one by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Both prediction models used HIRLAM predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). (au) EFP-94; EU-JOULE. 11 refs.

  1. Short-term indicators. Intensities as a proxy for savings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boonekamp, P.G.M.; Gerdes, J. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Faberi, S. [Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems ISIS, Rome (Italy)

    2013-12-15

    The ODYSSEE database on energy efficiency indicators (www.odyssee-indicators.org) has been set up to enable the monitoring and evaluation of realised energy efficiency improvements and related energy savings. The database covers the 27 EU countries as well as Norway and Croatia and data are available from 1990 on. This work contributes to the growing need for quantitative monitoring and evaluation of the impacts of energy policies and measures, both at the EU and national level, e.g. due to the Energy Services Directive and the proposed Energy Efficiency Directive. Because the underlying data become available only after some time, the savings figures are not always timely available. This is especially true for the ODEX efficiency indices per sector that rely on a number of indicators. Therefore, there is a need for so-called short-term indicators that become available shortly after the year has passed for which data are needed. The short term indicators do not replace the savings indicators but function as a proxy for the savings in the most recent year. This proxy value is faster available, but will be less accurate than the saving indicators themselves. The short term indicators have to be checked regularly with the ODEX indicators in order to see whether they can function still as a proxy.

  2. Rainfall Distributions in Sri Lanka in Time and Space: An Analysis Based on Daily Rainfall Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. P. Burt

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily rainfall totals are analyzed for the main agro-climatic zones of Sri Lanka for the period 1976–2006. The emphasis is on daily rainfall rather than on longer-period totals, in particular the number of daily falls exceeding given threshold totals. For one station (Mapalana, where a complete daily series is available from 1950, a longer-term perspective on changes over half a century is provided. The focus here is particularly on rainfall in March and April, given the sensitivity of agricultural decisions to early southwest monsoon rainfall at the beginning of the Yala cultivation season but other seasons are also considered, in particular the northeast monsoon. Rainfall across Sri Lanka over three decades is investigated in relation to the main atmospheric drivers known to affect climate in the region: sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, of which the former are shown to be more important. The strong influence of El Niño and La Niña phases on various aspects of the daily rainfall distribution in Sri Lanka is confirmed: positive correlations with Pacific sea-surface temperatures during the north east monsoon and negative correlations at other times. It is emphasized in the discussion that Sri Lanka must be placed in its regional context and it is important to draw on regional-scale research across the Indian subcontinent and the Bay of Bengal.

  3. Distinct cerebellar engrams in short-term and long-term motor learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen; Nakadate, Kazuhiko; Masugi-Tokita, Miwako; Shutoh, Fumihiro; Aziz, Wajeeha; Tarusawa, Etsuko; Lorincz, Andrea; Molnár, Elek; Kesaf, Sebnem; Li, Yun-Qing; Fukazawa, Yugo; Nagao, Soichi; Shigemoto, Ryuichi

    2014-01-07

    Cerebellar motor learning is suggested to be caused by long-term plasticity of excitatory parallel fiber-Purkinje cell (PF-PC) synapses associated with changes in the number of synaptic AMPA-type glutamate receptors (AMPARs). However, whether the AMPARs decrease or increase in individual PF-PC synapses occurs in physiological motor learning and accounts for memory that lasts over days remains elusive. We combined quantitative SDS-digested freeze-fracture replica labeling for AMPAR and physical dissector electron microscopy with a simple model of cerebellar motor learning, adaptation of horizontal optokinetic response (HOKR) in mouse. After 1-h training of HOKR, short-term adaptation (STA) was accompanied with transient decrease in AMPARs by 28% in target PF-PC synapses. STA was well correlated with AMPAR decrease in individual animals and both STA and AMPAR decrease recovered to basal levels within 24 h. Surprisingly, long-term adaptation (LTA) after five consecutive daily trainings of 1-h HOKR did not alter the number of AMPARs in PF-PC synapses but caused gradual and persistent synapse elimination by 45%, with corresponding PC spine loss by the fifth training day. Furthermore, recovery of LTA after 2 wk was well correlated with increase of PF-PC synapses to the control level. Our findings indicate that the AMPARs decrease in PF-PC synapses and the elimination of these synapses are in vivo engrams in short- and long-term motor learning, respectively, showing a unique type of synaptic plasticity that may contribute to memory consolidation.

  4. Effect of short-term hyperglycemia on cerebral function in neurooncological patients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loginov, V.M.; Gnezditskij, V.V.; Emulyushina, O.N.; Mukhamedzhanov, N.Z.

    1991-01-01

    The paper is concerned with the results of investigation of the effect of short-term hyperglycemia on main cerebral functions in 13 neurooncological patients. Taking into account good tolerance of short-term hyperglycemia and the results of its effective use in general oncology, one can recommend it as a modifier in radiation therapy of brain gliomas

  5. Histopathologic characteristics and short-term outcomes of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) is generally a disease of persons older than 40 years. Concerning younger patients, controversies still exist regarding features and prognosis of CRC. We performed this study to characterise CRC in young patients (≤40 years) as well as to evaluate short-term outcome in ...

  6. Influence of the balance of the intertropical front on seasonal variations of the isotopic composition in rainfall at Kisiba Masoko (Rungwe Volcanic Province, SW, Tanzania).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nivet, Fantine; Bergonzini, Laurent; Mathé, Pierre-Etienne; Noret, Aurélie; Monvoisin, Gaël; Majule, Amos; Williamson, David

    2018-08-01

    Tropical rainfall isotopic composition results from complex processes. The climatological and environmental variability in East Africa increases this complexity. Long rainfall isotope datasets are needed to fill the lack of observations in this region. At Kisiba Masoko, Tanzania, rainfall and rain isotopic composition have been monitored during 6 years. Mean year profiles allow to analyse the seasonal variations. The mean annual rainfall is 2099 mm with a rain-weighted mean composition of -3.2 ‰ for δ 18 O and -11.7 ‰ for δ 2 H. The results are consistent with available data although they present their own specificity. Thus, if the local meteoric water line is δ 2 H = 8.6 δ 18 O + 14.8, two seasonal lines are observed. The seasonality of the isotopic composition in rain and deuterium excess has been compared with precipitating air masses backtracking trajectories to characterize a simple scheme of vapour histories. The three major oceanic sources have two moisture signatures with their own trajectory histories: one originated from the tropical Indian Ocean at the beginning of the rainy season and one from the Austral Ocean at its end. The presented isotopic seasonality depends on the balance of the intertropical front and provides a useful dataset to improve the knowledge about local processes.

  7. Short-term memory in the service of executive control functions

    OpenAIRE

    Farshad Alizadeh Mansouri; Marcello eRosa; Nafiseh eAtapour

    2015-01-01

    Short-term memory is a crucial cognitive function for supporting on-going and upcoming behaviours, allowing storage of information across delay periods. The content of this memory may typically include tangible information about features such as the shape, colour or texture of an object, its location and motion relative to the body, or phonological information. The neural correlate of these short-term memories has been found in different brain areas involved in organizing perceptual or motor ...

  8. Soil organic carbon loss and selective transportation under field simulated rainfall events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Xiaodong; Li, Zhongwu; Huang, Jinquan; Huang, Bin; Zhang, Yan; Ma, Wenming; Hu, Yanbiao; Zeng, Guangming

    2014-01-01

    The study on the lateral movement of soil organic carbon (SOC) during soil erosion can improve the understanding of global carbon budget. Simulated rainfall experiments on small field plots were conducted to investigate the SOC lateral movement under different rainfall intensities and tillage practices. Two rainfall intensities (High intensity (HI) and Low intensity (LI)) and two tillage practices (No tillage (NT) and Conventional tillage (CT)) were maintained on three plots (2 m width × 5 m length): HI-NT, LI-NT and LI-CT. The rainfall lasted 60 minutes after the runoff generated, the sediment yield and runoff volume were measured and sampled at 6-min intervals. SOC concentration of sediment and runoff as well as the sediment particle size distribution were measured. The results showed that most of the eroded organic carbon (OC) was lost in form of sediment-bound organic carbon in all events. The amount of lost SOC in LI-NT event was 12.76 times greater than that in LI-CT event, whereas this measure in HI-NT event was 3.25 times greater than that in LI-NT event. These results suggest that conventional tillage as well as lower rainfall intensity can reduce the amount of lost SOC during short-term soil erosion. Meanwhile, the eroded sediment in all events was enriched in OC, and higher enrichment ratio of OC (ERoc) in sediment was observed in LI events than that in HI event, whereas similar ERoc curves were found in LI-CT and LI-NT events. Furthermore, significant correlations between ERoc and different size sediment particles were only observed in HI-NT event. This indicates that the enrichment of OC is dependent on the erosion process, and the specific enrichment mechanisms with respect to different erosion processes should be studied in future.

  9. Short-term clinical experience with hip resurfacing arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cieliński, Łukasz; Kusz, Damian; Wojciechowski, Piotr; Dziuba, Anna

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the authors' experience with hip resurfacing arthroplasty. Although introduced many years ago, the method did not gain wide popularity because of poor long-term outcomes. At present, owing to the introduction of metal-on-metal bearings and hybrid fixation techniques, short- and mid-term results are very good and encourage wider use of this technique, especially in the younger and more active patients whose results with standard total hip replacements would be unsatisfactory. We performed 13 hip resurfacing arthroplasties at our institution between August 1, 2005, and May 1, 2006. Twelve patients reported for the scheduled follow-up and were included in the study. Treatment outcomes were assessed according to the Harris Hip Score. The short-term outcomes of hip resurfacing arthroplasties are encouraging. In the study group there were no intraoperative complications, infections, peripheral nerve palsy, hip dislocations or clinically overt vein thrombosis. All of the patients reported complete or major pain relief. Clinical assessment according to the Harris Hip Score revealed improvement from an average of 57.7 (20.1) points preoperatively to an average of 87.7 (12) points after the surgery. Crutches were used for a maximum of 6 weeks postoperatively. All of the patients are currently able to walk without crutches with full weight-bearing. 1) Hip resurfacing arthroplasty seems to be an advisable method of operative management of younger, active patients, in whom standard THR would be associated with a high risk of failure; it allows THR to be postponed and carried out as a revision surgery with the acetabular component already in place. 2) Despite the good short- and mid-term results, the utility of this method should be evaluated with caution due to the lack of adequate long-term follow-up data.

  10. Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

  11. Response of stream invertebrates to short-term salinization: A mesocosm approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cañedo-Argüelles, Miguel; Grantham, Theodore E.; Perrée, Isabelle; Rieradevall, Maria; Céspedes-Sánchez, Raquel; Prat, Narcís

    2012-01-01

    Salinization is a major and growing threat to freshwater ecosystems, yet its effects on aquatic invertebrates have been poorly described at a community-level. Here we use a controlled experimental setting to evaluate short-term stream community responses to salinization, under conditions designed to replicate the duration (72 h) and intensity (up to 5 mS cm −1 ) of salinity pulses common to Mediterranean rivers subjected to mining pollution during runoff events. There was a significant overall effect, but differences between individual treatments and the control were only significant for the highest salinity treatment. The community response to salinization was characterized by a decline in total invertebrate density, taxon richness and diversity, an increase in invertebrate drift and loss of the most sensitive taxa. The findings indicate that short-term salinity increases have a significant impact on the stream invertebrate community, but concentrations of 5 mS cm −1 are needed to produce a significant ecological response. - Highlights: ► Short-term salinization has a significant impact on the aquatic invertebrates. ► A significant short-term ecological response is registered at 5 mS cm −1 . ► Salinization causes a decline in invertebrate density, richness and diversity. ► Biotic quality indices decline with increasing salinity and exposure time. - Short-term salinization in a stream mesocosm caused a significant response in the aquatic invertebrate community and led to declines in biological quality indices.

  12. Effect of BRCA1/2 mutation on short-term and long-term breast cancer survival: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Eun-Ha; Park, Sue K; Park, Boyoung; Kim, Sung-Won; Lee, Min Hyuk; Ahn, Sei Hyun; Son, Byung Ho; Yoo, Keun-Young; Kang, Daehee

    2010-07-01

    Reports of BRCA genetic mutations and risk of death or recurrence are inconsistent. This study aimed to compare overall and disease-free breast cancer survival rates between BRCA1/2 mutation carriers and non-carriers for short-term and long-term outcomes separately. We searched the PUBMED and EMBASE databases and retrieved 452 articles using keywords that included breast cancer, BRCA mutation, and survival. Seventeen articles were selected for systematic review and among them 11 were included in our meta-analysis. We used the random-effects model to calculate the summary hazard ratio and corresponding 95% confidence interval. BRCA1 mutation carriers had significantly lower short-term and long-term overall survival rates (OSR) relative to non-carriers (HR = 1.92 [95% CI = 1.45-2.53]; 1.33 [1.12-1.58], respectively), while both short-term and long-term OSR of BRCA2 carriers did not differ from non-carriers (HR = 1.30 [95% CI = 0.95-1.76]; 1.12 [95% CI = 0.86-1.45], respectively). For short-term progression-free survival rate (PFSR), BRCA1 mutation carriers had a significantly lower rate than non-carriers (HR = 1.54 [95% CI = 1.12-2.12]), while BRCA2 mutation carriers had a similar PFSR (HR = 1.23 [95% CI = 0.96-1.58]). For long-term PFSRs, we found no significant results. Our results suggest that BRCA1 mutation decreases short-term and long-term OSRs and short-term PFSR, however, BRCA2 mutation does not affect either short-term or long-term survival rate, which is attributed to the different carcinogenic pathways for BRCA1 and BRCA2.

  13. Bivariate frequency analysis of rainfall intensity and duration for urban stormwater infrastructure design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jun, Changhyun; Qin, Xiaosheng; Gan, Thian Yew; Tung, Yeou-Koung; De Michele, Carlo

    2017-10-01

    This study presents a storm-event based bivariate frequency analysis approach to determine design rainfalls in which, the number, intensity and duration of actual rainstorm events were considered. To derive more realistic design storms, the occurrence probability of an individual rainstorm event was determined from the joint distribution of storm intensity and duration through a copula model. Hourly rainfall data were used at three climate stations respectively located in Singapore, South Korea and Canada. It was found that the proposed approach could give a more realistic description of rainfall characteristics of rainstorm events and design rainfalls. As results, the design rainfall quantities from actual rainstorm events at the three studied sites are consistently lower than those obtained from the conventional rainfall depth-duration-frequency (DDF) method, especially for short-duration storms (such as 1-h). It results from occurrence probabilities of each rainstorm event and a different angle for rainfall frequency analysis, and could offer an alternative way of describing extreme rainfall properties and potentially help improve the hydrologic design of stormwater management facilities in urban areas.

  14. SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM WATER LEVEL PREDICTION AT ONE RIVER MEASUREMENT LOCATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rudolf Scitovski

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Global hydrological cycles mainly depend on climate changes whose occurrence is predominantly triggered by solar and terrestrial influence, and the knowledge of the high water regime is widely applied in hydrology. Regular monitoring and studying of river water level behavior is important from several perspectives. On the basis of the given data, by using modifications of general approaches known from literature, especially from investigation in hydrology, the problem of long- and short-term water level forecast at one river measurement location is considered in the paper. Long-term forecasting is considered as the problem of investigating the periodicity of water level behavior by using linear-trigonometric regression and short-term forecasting is based on the modification of the nearest neighbor method. The proposed methods are tested on data referring to the Drava River level by Donji Miholjac, Croatia, in the period between the beginning of 1900 and the end of 2012.

  15. Non-storm irregular variation of the Dst index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Nakano

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The Dst index has a long-term variation that is not associated with magnetic storms. We estimated the long-term non-storm component of the Dst variation by removing the short-term variation related to magnetic storms. The results indicate that the variation of the non-storm component includes not only a seasonal variation but also an irregular variation. The irregular long-term variation is likely to be due to an anti-correlation with the long-term variation of solar-wind activity. In particular, a clear anti-correlation is observed between the non-storm component of Dst and the long-term variation of the solar-wind dynamic pressure. This means that in the long term, the Dst index tends to increase when the solar-wind dynamic pressure decreases. We interpret this anti-correlation as an indication that the long-term non-storm variation of Dst is influenced by the tail current variation. The long-term variation of the solar-wind dynamic pressure controls the plasma sheet thermal pressure, and the change of the plasma sheet thermal pressure would cause the non-storm tail current variation, resulting in the non-storm variation of Dst.

  16. Predicting short term mood developments among depressed patients using adherence and ecological momentary assessment data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Mikus

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Technology driven interventions provide us with an increasing amount of fine-grained data about the patient. This data includes regular ecological momentary assessments (EMA but also response times to EMA questions by a user. When observing this data, we see a huge variation between the patterns exhibited by different patients. Some are more stable while others vary a lot over time. This poses a challenging problem for the domain of artificial intelligence and makes on wondering whether it is possible to predict the future mental state of a patient using the data that is available. In the end, these predictions could potentially contribute to interventions that tailor the feedback to the user on a daily basis, for example by warning a user that a fall-back might be expected during the next days, or by applying a strategy to prevent the fall-back from occurring in the first place.In this work, we focus on short term mood prediction by considering the adherence and usage data as an additional predictor. We apply recurrent neural networks to handle the temporal aspects best and try to explore whether individual, group level, or one single predictive model provides the highest predictive performance (measured using the root mean squared error (RMSE. We use data collected from patients from five countries who used the ICT4Depression/MoodBuster platform in the context of the EU E-COMPARED project. In total, we used the data from 143 patients (with between 9 and 425days of EMA data who were diagnosed with a major depressive disorder according to DSM-IV.Results show that we can make predictions of short term mood change quite accurate (ranging between 0.065 and 0.11. The past EMA mood ratings proved to be the most influential while adherence and usage data did not improve prediction accuracy. In general, group level predictions proved to be the most promising, however differences were not significant.Short term mood prediction remains a difficult task

  17. Analysis of hydrologic variation under climate change environment in southern Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yung-Chau; Chen, Yu-Chin; Chen, Wen-Fu

    2014-05-01

    Impact and adaptation is an important issue in response to climate change. We need to know the affections of climate change on hydrologic characteristics before estimating the impacts and making adaptation strategies of concerned area. The wet and dry seasons of southern Taiwan are significant. In addition, the amount of average annual rainfall is about 2,100mm in southern Taiwan. Most of rainfalls happen in wet season and are caused by cyclones (typhoons) or thunderstorms in wet season. It implies that both quantity and intensity of rainfall are large in wet season, while they are small in dry season. Corresponding to the phenomena, the possibility of flood in wet season and draught in dry season is high. This means significant hydrologic variations may cause disasters. The purpose of this study is to analyze hydrologic variation due to recent climate changes in southern Taiwan, and provide decision makers some information to understand possible impacts and make adaptation strategies. Before typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan, southern Taiwan was suffering from aridity. As usual, people were expecting the rainfall accompanied with typhoons will resolve the drought in this area. However, it fell down huge amount of water within a short period of time and the rain became a big disaster in this area. The rainfall is an over 200-year event, a record breaker. The data used in this research is based on the records of Taiwan Central Weather Bureau at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun station, respectively. The trends of temperature, amount of rainfall, and number of rainy days are examined. Both Mann-Kendall trend test and linear regression method are chosen as the means to do trend examination.The results show that annual mean temperatures at Chiayi, Tainan, Kaohsiung, and Hengchun have raised 0.5~0.9°C during past decades under the impact of global warming. The amount of annual rainfall does not appear statistically significant trend. However, the number of annual rainy

  18. Prosodic Similarity Effects in Short-Term Memory in Developmental Dyslexia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Usha; Barnes, Lisa; Mead, Natasha; Power, Alan James; Leong, Victoria

    2016-11-01

    Children with developmental dyslexia are characterized by phonological difficulties across languages. Classically, this 'phonological deficit' in dyslexia has been investigated with tasks using single-syllable words. Recently, however, several studies have demonstrated difficulties in prosodic awareness in dyslexia. Potential prosodic effects in short-term memory have not yet been investigated. Here we create a new instrument based on three-syllable words that vary in stress patterns, to investigate whether prosodic similarity (the same prosodic pattern of stressed and unstressed syllables) exerts systematic effects on short-term memory. We study participants with dyslexia and age-matched and younger reading-level-matched typically developing controls. We find that all participants, including dyslexic participants, show prosodic similarity effects in short-term memory. All participants exhibited better retention of words that differed in prosodic structure, although participants with dyslexia recalled fewer words accurately overall compared to age-matched controls. Individual differences in prosodic memory were predicted by earlier vocabulary abilities, by earlier sensitivity to syllable stress and by earlier phonological awareness. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of prosodic similarity effects in short-term memory. The implications of a prosodic similarity effect for theories of lexical representation and of dyslexia are discussed. © 2016 The Authors. Dyslexia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Dyslexia published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Analysis of the short-term overproduction capability of variable speed wind turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca Daniela; Altin, Müfit; Margaris, Ioannis D.

    2014-01-01

    Emphasis in this article is on variable speed wind turbines (VSWTs) capability to provide short-term overproduction and better understanding of VSWTs’ mechanical and electrical limits to deliver such support. VSWTs’ short-term overproduction capability is of primary concern for the transmission...

  20. The right hippocampus participates in short-term memory maintenance of object-location associations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Piekema, C.; Kessels, R.P.C.; Mars, R.B.; Petersson, K.M.; Fernandez, G.S.E.

    2006-01-01

    Doubts have been cast on the strict dissociation between short- and long-term memory systems. Specifically, several neuroimaging studies have shown that the medial temporal lobe, a region almost invariably associated with long-term memory, is involved in active short-term memory maintenance.