WorldWideScience

Sample records for short-term power fluctuations

  1. Simulation of short-term fluctuations in gamma exposure rate due to radioactive cloud released from nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ichikawa, Yoichi; Shikata, Hiroshi; Ishida, Kenji; Ohba, Tachimori.

    1981-01-01

    The measured γ-exposure rate around nuclear power plants is due mainly to natural causes and radioactive clouds emitted from the plants. An exposure calculation method based on puff model has been already proposed to identify the plant contributions and to estimate values in response to short-term fluctuations of meteorological condition and the release rate. However, the calculation method by this model consumes a lot of computer time, since the calculation requires a three-dimensional integration of the distribution of the concentration from each puff. Hence, we propose a simplified method using approximate polynominal equations and interpolations. The computer time needed for the calculation with the simplified method is reduced to 1/30 of that required by the previous method. The calculation results by simplified method are compared with those by the previous method and with the measured exposure rate less natural background. The results of two different methods are in good agreement. The calculated exposure rate is within the range from half to twice as much as the measured exposure rate less background. (author)

  2. Predicting short-term stock fluctuations by using processing fluency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alter, Adam L.; Oppenheimer, Daniel M.

    2006-01-01

    Three studies investigated the impact of the psychological principle of fluency (that people tend to prefer easily processed information) on short-term share price movements. In both a laboratory study and two analyses of naturalistic real-world stock market data, fluently named stocks robustly outperformed stocks with disfluent names in the short term. For example, in one study, an initial investment of $1,000 yielded a profit of $112 more after 1 day of trading for a basket of fluently named shares than for a basket of disfluently named shares. These results imply that simple, cognitive approaches to modeling human behavior sometimes outperform more typical, complex alternatives. PMID:16754871

  3. Online Short-term Solar Power Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2011-01-01

    This poster presents two approaches to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The methods are suited for online forecasting in many applications and here they are used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons up to 32 hours.......This poster presents two approaches to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The methods are suited for online forecasting in many applications and here they are used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons up to 32 hours....

  4. Stochastic Optimal Wind Power Bidding Strategy in Short-Term Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

    2012-01-01

    Due to the fluctuating nature and non-perfect forecast of the wind power, the wind power owners are penalized for the imbalance costs of the regulation, when they trade wind power in the short-term liberalized electricity market. Therefore, in this paper a formulation of an imbalance cost...... minimization problem for trading wind power in the short-term electricity market is described, to help the wind power owners optimize their bidding strategy. Stochastic optimization and a Monte Carlo method are adopted to find the optimal bidding strategy for trading wind power in the short-term electricity...... market in order to deal with the uncertainty of the regulation price, the activated regulation of the power system and the forecasted wind power generation. The Danish short-term electricity market and a wind farm in western Denmark are chosen as study cases due to the high wind power penetration here...

  5. Online short-term solar power forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg

    2009-01-01

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power production from PV systems. The method is suited to online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is used to predict hourly values of solar power for horizons of up to 36 hours. The data used is fifteen......-minute observations of solar power from 21 PV systems located on rooftops in a small village in Denmark. The suggested method is a two-stage method where first a statistical normalization of the solar power is obtained using a clear sky model. The clear sky model is found using statistical smoothing techniques....... Then forecasts of the normalized solar power are calculated using adaptive linear time series models. Both autoregressive (AR) and AR with exogenous input (ARX) models are evaluated, where the latter takes numerical weather predictions (NWPs) as input. The results indicate that for forecasts up to two hours...

  6. Short-term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joensen, Alfred K.

    2003-01-01

    , and to implement these models and methods in an on-line software application. The economical value of having predictions available is also briefly considered. The summary report outlines the background and motivation for developing wind power prediction models. The meteorological theory which is relevant......The present thesis consists of 10 research papers published during the period 1997-2002 together with a summary report. The objective of the work described in the thesis is to develop models and methods for calculation of high accuracy predictions of wind power generated electricity...

  7. Short-Term Solar Collector Power Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Perers, Bengt

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a new approach to online forecasting of power output from solar thermal collectors. The method is suited for online forecasting in many applications and in this paper it is applied to predict hourly values of power from a standard single glazed large area flat plate collector...... enabling tracking of changes in the system and in the surrounding conditions, such as decreasing performance due to wear and dirt, and seasonal changes such as leaves on trees. This furthermore facilitates remote monitoring and check of the system....

  8. A new ensemble model for short term wind power prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Albu, Razvan-Daniel; Felea, Ioan

    2012-01-01

    As the objective of this study, a non-linear ensemble system is used to develop a new model for predicting wind speed in short-term time scale. Short-term wind power prediction becomes an extremely important field of research for the energy sector. Regardless of the recent advancements in the re-search...... of prediction models, it was observed that different models have different capabilities and also no single model is suitable under all situations. The idea behind EPS (ensemble prediction systems) is to take advantage of the unique features of each subsystem to detain diverse patterns that exist in the dataset...

  9. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin

    2012-04-01

    The emphasis on renewable energy and concerns about the environment have led to large-scale wind energy penetration worldwide. However, there are also significant challenges associated with the use of wind energy due to the intermittent and unstable nature of wind. High-quality short-term wind speed forecasting is critical to reliable and secure power system operations. This article begins with an overview of the current status of worldwide wind power developments and future trends. It then reviews some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss functions. New challenges in wind speed forecasting regarding ramp events and offshore wind farms are also presented. © 2012 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2012 International Statistical Institute.

  10. Short-term fluctuations in motivation to quit smoking in a sample of smokers in Hawaii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, Thaddeus; Pokhrel, Pallav; Kawamoto, Crissy T

    2015-01-01

    Despite its potential for usefulness in informing the development of smoking cessation interventions, short-term fluctuations in motivation to quit is a relatively understudied topic. To assess the prevalence of smokers' day-to-day fluctuations in motivation to quit, and to assess associations of day-to-day fluctuations in motivation to quit with several established cessation-related variables. A cross-sectional survey was administered to smokers in Hawaii (N = 1,567). To assess short-term fluctuations in motivation to quit smoking, participants were asked to respond "True" or "False" to the statement: "My motivation to quit smoking changes from one day to the next." Other items measured desire to quit smoking, intention to quit, confidence in quitting, cigarette dependence, and other cessation-related variables. "My motivation to quit smoking changes from one day to the next" was endorsed as true by 64.7% of smokers, and false by 35.3%. Analyses revealed that smokers who indicated fluctuating motivation were significantly more interested in quitting as compared to smokers without fluctuations. Fluctuations in motivation to quit also were associated with greater confidence in quitting, lesser cigarette dependence, and more recent quitting activity (all p motivation to quit are common. Day-to-day fluctuations in motivation to quit are strongly associated with higher motivation to quit, greater confidence in future quitting, and other positive cessation-relevant trends.

  11. Short-Term Planning of Hybrid Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knežević, Goran; Baus, Zoran; Nikolovski, Srete

    2016-07-01

    In this paper short-term planning algorithm for hybrid power system consist of different types of cascade hydropower plants (run-of-the river, pumped storage, conventional), thermal power plants (coal-fired power plants, combined cycle gas-fired power plants) and wind farms is presented. The optimization process provides a joint bid of the hybrid system, and thus making the operation schedule of hydro and thermal power plants, the operation condition of pumped-storage hydropower plants with the aim of maximizing profits on day ahead market, according to expected hourly electricity prices, the expected local water inflow in certain hydropower plants, and the expected production of electrical energy from the wind farm, taking into account previously contracted bilateral agreement for electricity generation. Optimization process is formulated as hourly-discretized mixed integer linear optimization problem. Optimization model is applied on the case study in order to show general features of the developed model.

  12. Short-term Power Load Forecasting Based on Balanced KNN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Xianlong; Cheng, Xingong; YanShuang; Tang, Yan-mei

    2018-03-01

    To improve the accuracy of load forecasting, a short-term load forecasting model based on balanced KNN algorithm is proposed; According to the load characteristics, the historical data of massive power load are divided into scenes by the K-means algorithm; In view of unbalanced load scenes, the balanced KNN algorithm is proposed to classify the scene accurately; The local weighted linear regression algorithm is used to fitting and predict the load; Adopting the Apache Hadoop programming framework of cloud computing, the proposed algorithm model is parallelized and improved to enhance its ability of dealing with massive and high-dimension data. The analysis of the household electricity consumption data for a residential district is done by 23-nodes cloud computing cluster, and experimental results show that the load forecasting accuracy and execution time by the proposed model are the better than those of traditional forecasting algorithm.

  13. Short-Term Power Plant GHG Emissions Forecasting Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidovic, D.

    2016-01-01

    In 2010, the share of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power generation in the total emissions at the global level was about 25 percent. From January 1st, 2013 Croatian facilities have been involved in the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The share of the ETS sector in total GHG emissions in Croatia in 2012 was about 30 percent, where power plants and heat generation facilities contributed to almost 50 percent. Since 2013 power plants are obliged to purchase all emission allowances. The paper describes the short-term climate forecasting model of greenhouse gas emissions from power plants while covering the daily load diagram of the system. Forecasting is done on an hourly domain typically for one day, it is possible and more days ahead. Forecasting GHG emissions in this way would enable power plant operators to purchase additional or sell surplus allowances on the market at the time. Example that describes the operation of the above mentioned forecasting model is given at the end of the paper.(author).

  14. Short-term load forecasting of power system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xiaobin

    2017-05-01

    In order to ensure the scientific nature of optimization about power system, it is necessary to improve the load forecasting accuracy. Power system load forecasting is based on accurate statistical data and survey data, starting from the history and current situation of electricity consumption, with a scientific method to predict the future development trend of power load and change the law of science. Short-term load forecasting is the basis of power system operation and analysis, which is of great significance to unit combination, economic dispatch and safety check. Therefore, the load forecasting of the power system is explained in detail in this paper. First, we use the data from 2012 to 2014 to establish the partial least squares model to regression analysis the relationship between daily maximum load, daily minimum load, daily average load and each meteorological factor, and select the highest peak by observing the regression coefficient histogram Day maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily average temperature as the meteorological factors to improve the accuracy of load forecasting indicators. Secondly, in the case of uncertain climate impact, we use the time series model to predict the load data for 2015, respectively, the 2009-2014 load data were sorted out, through the previous six years of the data to forecast the data for this time in 2015. The criterion for the accuracy of the prediction is the average of the standard deviations for the prediction results and average load for the previous six years. Finally, considering the climate effect, we use the BP neural network model to predict the data in 2015, and optimize the forecast results on the basis of the time series model.

  15. Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose; Alvarez, Jesus; Rodriguez, Eduardo

    2008-01-01

    This paper analyzes the auto-correlations of international crude oil prices on the basis of the estimation of the Hurst exponent dynamics for returns over the period from 1987 to 2007. In doing so, a model-free statistical approach - detrended fluctuation analysis - that reduces the effects of non-stationary market trends and focuses on the intrinsic auto-correlation structure of market fluctuations over different time horizons, is used. Tests for time variations of the Hurst exponent indicate that over long horizons the crude oil market is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis. However, meaningful auto-correlations cannot be excluded for time horizons smaller than one month where the Hurst exponent manifests cyclic, non-periodic dynamics. This means that the market exhibits a time-varying short-term inefficient behavior that becomes efficient in the long term. The proposed methodology and its findings are put in perspective with previous studies and results. (author)

  16. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting for Power System Operations

    KAUST Repository

    Zhu, Xinxin; Genton, Marc G.

    2012-01-01

    some statistical short-term wind speed forecasting models, including traditional time series approaches and more advanced space-time statistical models. It also discusses the evaluation of forecast accuracy, in particular, the need for realistic loss

  17. Short-term economics of virtual power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kok, J.K.

    2009-08-01

    The Virtual Power Plant (VPP) has gained an increasing interest over the last few years. A VPP is a flexible representation of a portfolio of Distributed Energy Resources (DER: distributed generation, demand response and electricity storage). One of the key activities of a VPP is the delivery of (near-)real-time balancing services. In order to operate such a (near-)real-time coordination activity optimally, the VPP needs to maintain a dynamic merit-order list of all DER participating in the VPP. In order to make optimal decisions based on this list, the merit order needs to be based on the true marginal cost (or marginal benefit in case of demand response) of the individual DER units. The marginal electricity costs of most types of DER are highly dependent on local context and, hence, change over time. From analysis of the short-term bid strategies of various DER units, the existence of a bid strategy spectrum becomes clear. On one end of the spectrum, bidding strategies are based straightforwardly on true marginal cost or benefit. Further along the spectrum, optimal bidding strategies become less dependent on marginal cost levels and more on the price dynamics in the (VPP) market context. These results are relevant for VPP operations both from business and technical perspectives.

  18. Wavelet decomposition and neuro-fuzzy hybrid system applied to short-term wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernandez-Jimenez, L.A.; Mendoza-Villena, M. [La Rioja Univ., Logrono (Spain). Dept. of Electrical Engineering; Ramirez-Rosado, I.J.; Abebe, B. [Zaragoza Univ., Zaragoza (Spain). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2010-03-09

    Wind energy has become increasingly popular as a renewable energy source. However, the integration of wind farms in the electrical power systems presents several problems, including the chaotic fluctuation of wind flow which results in highly varied power generation from a wind farm. An accurate forecast of wind power generation has important consequences in the economic operation of the integrated power system. This paper presented a new statistical short-term wind power forecasting model based on wavelet decomposition and neuro-fuzzy systems optimized with a genetic algorithm. The paper discussed wavelet decomposition; the proposed wind power forecasting model; and computer results. The original time series, the mean electric power generated in a wind farm, was decomposing into wavelet coefficients that were utilized as inputs for the forecasting model. The forecasting results obtained with the final models were compared to those obtained with traditional forecasting models showing a better performance for all the forecasting horizons. 13 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs.

  19. Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melin, Alexander M. [ORNL; Olama, Mohammed M. [ORNL; Dong, Jin [ORNL; Djouadi, Seddik M. [ORNL; Zhang, Yichen [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK), Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science

    2017-09-01

    The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed to estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our lab.

  20. Short-Term Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting Based on Multivariable Grey Theory Model with Parameter Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhifeng Zhong

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Owing to the environment, temperature, and so forth, photovoltaic power generation volume is always fluctuating and subsequently impacts power grid planning and operation seriously. Therefore, it is of great importance to make accurate prediction of the power generation of photovoltaic (PV system in advance. In order to improve the prediction accuracy, in this paper, a novel particle swarm optimization algorithm based multivariable grey theory model is proposed for short-term photovoltaic power generation volume forecasting. It is highlighted that, by integrating particle swarm optimization algorithm, the prediction accuracy of grey theory model is expected to be highly improved. In addition, large amounts of real data from two separate power stations in China are being employed for model verification. The experimental results indicate that, compared with the conventional grey model, the mean relative error in the proposed model has been reduced from 7.14% to 3.53%. The real practice demonstrates that the proposed optimization model outperforms the conventional grey model from both theoretical and practical perspectives.

  1. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco

    2011-01-01

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  2. Error analysis of short term wind power prediction models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    De Giorgi, Maria Grazia; Ficarella, Antonio; Tarantino, Marco [Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell' Innovazione, Universita del Salento, Via per Monteroni, 73100 Lecce (Italy)

    2011-04-15

    The integration of wind farms in power networks has become an important problem. This is because the electricity produced cannot be preserved because of the high cost of storage and electricity production must follow market demand. Short-long-range wind forecasting over different lengths/periods of time is becoming an important process for the management of wind farms. Time series modelling of wind speeds is based upon the valid assumption that all the causative factors are implicitly accounted for in the sequence of occurrence of the process itself. Hence time series modelling is equivalent to physical modelling. Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, which perform a linear mapping between inputs and outputs, and Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS), which perform a non-linear mapping, provide a robust approach to wind power prediction. In this work, these models are developed in order to forecast power production of a wind farm with three wind turbines, using real load data and comparing different time prediction periods. This comparative analysis takes in the first time, various forecasting methods, time horizons and a deep performance analysis focused upon the normalised mean error and the statistical distribution hereof in order to evaluate error distribution within a narrower curve and therefore forecasting methods whereby it is more improbable to make errors in prediction. (author)

  3. Short term braking capability during power interruptions for integrated matrix converter

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klumpner, Christian; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2004-01-01

    attractive. Sinusoidal input currents and bi-directional power flow are other advantages of the matrix converter, but it is less immune to power grid disturbances compared to a standard ASD. In hoisting applications, short-term braking capability during a power outage is needed until the mechanical brake...... engages or to perform more effective a combined braking. This paper proposes a new method to provide short-term braking capability during a power outage for matrix converters. A braking chopper is needed in the clamp circuit, which allows for a drastically reduction of the capacitor size. The power flow...

  4. Short term Braking Capability during Power Interruptions for Integrated Matrix Converter-Motor Drives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klumpner, Christian; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2002-01-01

    attractive. Sinusoidal input currents and bi-directional power flow are other advantages of the matrix converter but it is less immune to power grid disturbances compared to a standard ASD. In hoisting applications, short-term braking capability during a power outage is needed until the mechanical brake...... engages or to perform more effective a combined braking.This paper proposes a new method to provide short-term braking capability during a power outage for matrix converters. A braking chopper is needed in the clamp circuit, which allows for a drastically reduction of the capacitor size. The power flow...

  5. Short-term fluctuations in bivalve larvae compared with some environmental factors in a coastal lagoon (South Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis M.Z. Chícaro

    2000-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study, short-term fluctuations in bivalve larvae were compared with some triggering factors for a period of sixteen months. Data on the abundance of planktonic larvae, collected two to three times a week were related to water temperature, salinity, wind velocity, tidal amplitude and chlorophyll a. Higher densities of planktonic bivalve larvae were caught between May and August, but intense fluctuations in abundance were observed. Planktonic bivalve larvae of eighteen taxa were identified. Larvae of Mytilus galloprovincialis, Cerastoderma edule, Ruditapes decussates and Venerupis spp. were the most abundant. The seasonal fluctuations of bivalve abundance seem to be controlled by temperature, the major factor in the timing of the reproduction of bivalves. Nevertheless, advection may be also a key factor during the planktonic life of bivalve species in coastal systems, such as the Ria Formosa.

  6. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method

    OpenAIRE

    Wen-Yeau Chang

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help power system operators reduce the risk of an unreliable electricity supply. This paper proposes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO) based hybrid forecasting method for short-term wi...

  7. Short-term wind power prediction based on LSSVM–GSA model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Xiaohui; Chen, Chen; Yuan, Yanbin; Huang, Yuehua; Tan, Qingxiong

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A hybrid model is developed for short-term wind power prediction. • The model is based on LSSVM and gravitational search algorithm. • Gravitational search algorithm is used to optimize parameters of LSSVM. • Effect of different kernel function of LSSVM on wind power prediction is discussed. • Comparative studies show that prediction accuracy of wind power is improved. - Abstract: Wind power forecasting can improve the economical and technical integration of wind energy into the existing electricity grid. Due to its intermittency and randomness, it is hard to forecast wind power accurately. For the purpose of utilizing wind power to the utmost extent, it is very important to make an accurate prediction of the output power of a wind farm under the premise of guaranteeing the security and the stability of the operation of the power system. In this paper, a hybrid model (LSSVM–GSA) based on the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM) and gravitational search algorithm (GSA) is proposed to forecast the short-term wind power. As the kernel function and the related parameters of the LSSVM have a great influence on the performance of the prediction model, the paper establishes LSSVM model based on different kernel functions for short-term wind power prediction. And then an optimal kernel function is determined and the parameters of the LSSVM model are optimized by using GSA. Compared with the Back Propagation (BP) neural network and support vector machine (SVM) model, the simulation results show that the hybrid LSSVM–GSA model based on exponential radial basis kernel function and GSA has higher accuracy for short-term wind power prediction. Therefore, the proposed LSSVM–GSA is a better model for short-term wind power prediction

  8. Short-term power plant operation scheduling in thermal systems with long-term boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolter, H.

    1990-01-01

    For the first time, the modeling of long-term quantitative conditions within the short-term planning of the application of power stations is made via their shadow prices. It corresponds to a decomposition of the quantitative conditions by means of the method of the Langrange relaxation. The shadow prices determined by the planning for energy application regarding long- term quantitative conditions pass into the short-term planning for power station application and subsidize or rather punish the application of limited amounts as for as they are not claimed for sufficiently or excessively. The clear advantage of this modeling is that the short-term planning of power station application can deviate from the envisioned energy application regarding the total optimum, because the shadow prices contain all information about the cost effect of the energy shifts in the residual total period, which become necessary due to the deviations in the short-term period to be planned in the current short-term period. (orig./DG) [de

  9. Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

  10. EDM - A model for optimising the short-term power operation of a complex hydroelectric network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tremblay, M.; Guillaud, C.

    1996-01-01

    In order to optimize the short-term power operation of a complex hydroelectric network, a new model called EDM was added to PROSPER, a water management analysis system developed by SNC-Lavalin. PROSPER is now divided into three parts: an optimization model (DDDP), a simulation model (ESOLIN), and an economic dispatch model (EDM) for the short-term operation. The operation of the KSEB hydroelectric system (located in southern India) with PROSPER was described. The long-term analysis with monthly time steps is assisted by the DDDP, and the daily analysis with hourly or half-hourly time steps is performed with the EDM model. 3 figs

  11. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Costa, A.; Crespo, A.; Navarro, J.

    2008-01-01

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art oil models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought...... on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly...

  12. European Short-term Electricity Market Designs under High Penetration of Wind Power

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chaves Avila, J.P.

    2014-01-01

    The EU has ambitious policies for decarbonization of the electricity sector. Due to recent technological developments, wind power already represents a significant share of the generation mix in some European countries. As a result, short-term electricity markets and balancing arrangements must be

  13. Short Term Energy Storage for Grid Support in Wind Power Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Daniel Ioan; Stan, Ana-Irina; Diosi, Robert

    2012-01-01

    The penetration of wind power into the power system has been increasing in the recent years. Therefore, a lot of concerns related to the reliable operation of the power system have been addressed. An attractive solution to minimize the limitations faced by the wind power grid integration, and thus...... to increase the power system stability and the energy quality, is to integrate energy storage devices into wind power plants. This paper gives an overview of the state-of-the-art short-term energy storage devices and presents several applications which can be provided by the energy storage device - wind power...

  14. Short term and medium term power distribution load forecasting by neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yalcinoz, T.; Eminoglu, U.

    2005-01-01

    Load forecasting is an important subject for power distribution systems and has been studied from different points of view. In general, load forecasts should be performed over a broad spectrum of time intervals, which could be classified into short term, medium term and long term forecasts. Several research groups have proposed various techniques for either short term load forecasting or medium term load forecasting or long term load forecasting. This paper presents a neural network (NN) model for short term peak load forecasting, short term total load forecasting and medium term monthly load forecasting in power distribution systems. The NN is used to learn the relationships among past, current and future temperatures and loads. The neural network was trained to recognize the peak load of the day, total load of the day and monthly electricity consumption. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to real load shapes from the Turkish Electricity Distribution Corporation (TEDAS) in Nigde. The data represents the daily and monthly electricity consumption in Nigde, Turkey

  15. Short-Term Wind Power Interval Forecasting Based on an EEMD-RT-RVM Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haixiang Zang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate short-term wind power forecasting is important for improving the security and economic success of power grids. Existing wind power forecasting methods are mostly types of deterministic point forecasting. Deterministic point forecasting is vulnerable to forecasting errors and cannot effectively deal with the random nature of wind power. In order to solve the above problems, we propose a short-term wind power interval forecasting model based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD, runs test (RT, and relevance vector machine (RVM. First, in order to reduce the complexity of data, the original wind power sequence is decomposed into a plurality of intrinsic mode function (IMF components and residual (RES component by using EEMD. Next, we use the RT method to reconstruct the components and obtain three new components characterized by the fine-to-coarse order. Finally, we obtain the overall forecasting results (with preestablished confidence levels by superimposing the forecasting results of each new component. Our results show that, compared with existing methods, our proposed short-term interval forecasting method has less forecasting errors, narrower interval widths, and larger interval coverage percentages. Ultimately, our forecasting model is more suitable for engineering applications and other forecasting methods for new energy.

  16. Short-term variability of Cyg X-1 and the accretion disk temperature fluctuation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doi, K.

    1980-01-01

    Recent theoretical models which have been proposed to explain the observed time-averaged spectrum of Cyg X-1 assume that the hard x-rays are emitted by inverse-Compton mechanism from an optically thin, hot accretion disk around a black hole. Results are reported here of balloon observations (20-68 keV) and compared with previous rocket observations (1.5-25 keV). Using the results an analysis is made of the variability of the source intensity in the hard x-ray range which suggests that the variation is essentially spectral indicating that it originated from temperature fluctuation in an accretive disk. Such a model, which explains the stochastic nature of the variability, its characteristic time scale and spectral features at the same time in the context of the conventional accretion disk model for Cyg X-1, is examined. (U.K.)

  17. Analysing the Possible Ways for Short-Term Forcing Gas Turbine Engines in Auxiliary Power Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. I. Trotskii

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a gas turbine energy unit as an example, the article discusses possible ways for forcing the short-term gas turbine engines (GTE. The introduction explains the need for forcing the air transport and marine GTE in specific driving conditions and offers the main methods. Then it analyzes the three main short-term forcing methods according to GTE power, namely: precompressor water injection, a short-term rise in temperature after the combustion chamber, and feeding an additional compressed air into combustion chamber from the reserve cylinders.The analysis of the water injection method to force a GTE presents the main provisions and calculation results of the cycle, as a function of engine power on the amount of water injected into compressor inlet. It is shown that with water injection into compressor inlet in an amount of 1% of the total airflow there is a 17% power increase in the compressor. It also lists the main implementation problems of this method and makes a comparison with the results of other studies on the water injection into compressor.Next, the article concerns the GTE short-term forcing method through the pre-turbine short-term increase in the gas temperature. The article presents the calculation results of the cycle as a function of the power and the fuel-flow rate on the gas temperature at the turbine inlet. It is shown that with increasing temperature by 80 degrees the engine power increases by 11.2% and requires 11% more fuel. In the analysis of this method arises an issue of thermal barrier coating on the blade surface. The article discusses the most common types of coatings and their main shortcomings. It lists the main challenges and some ways of their solving when using this method to implement the short-term forcing.The last method under consideration is GTE short-term forcing by feeding the compressed air into the combustion chamber from the additional reserve cylinders. It should be noted that this method is

  18. Short term fluctuations and succession trends in tropical floodplain vegetation measured by correspondence analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anderson Medeiros dos Santos

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was to study the aquatic macrophytes community development to distinguish the fluctuations from succession trends at different temporal and spatial scales in the Upper Paraná River floodplain. The samples were collected quarterly from May 2000 to March 2002 in seven lakes with different degrees of connectivity from the main river channel and analyzed by between-class correspondence analysis. It was difficult to establish any pattern of community development at local scale but at a higher level of organization, disconnected lakes were characterized by fluctuation of the floristic composition. Connected lakes showed a straight trajectory, indicating that succession was occurring at these sites. Probably the income of propagules and diaspores from the river into connected lakes was the driving force of the observed change in community composition.Trabalhos sobre sucessão ecológica foram realizados principalmente com ecologia vegetal de plantas terrestres, onde a maioria das teorias foram concebidas. Poucos estudos abordam a vegetação de áreas alagáveis especialmente no Brasil. Este trabalho investigou o desenvolvimento da comunidade de macrófitas aquáticas tentando distinguir flutuações populacionais de tendências sucessionais em diferentes escalas temporal e espacial na planície de inundação do Alto Rio Paraná. As amostras foram coletadas a cada três meses, de maio de 2000 a março de 2002, em 7 lagoas com diferentes graus de conectividade com a calha principal dos rios, e analisadas pela análise de correspondência (CA entre-classes. Foi difícil estabelecer qualquer padrão de desenvolvimento da comunidade sob uma escala local, mas em uma escala mais ampla, as lagoas desconectadas foram caracterizadas pela flutuação da composição florística. As lagoas conectadas apresentaram uma trajetória retilínea no diagrama da CA, indicando que a sucessão estava ocorrendo nestes locais. Provavelmente, o aporte

  19. Latitudinal Patterns in European Seagrass Carbon Reserves: Influence of Seasonal Fluctuations versus Short-Term Stress and Disturbance Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soissons, Laura M.; Haanstra, Eeke P.; van Katwijk, Marieke M.; Asmus, Ragnhild; Auby, Isabelle; Barillé, Laurent; Brun, Fernando G.; Cardoso, Patricia G.; Desroy, Nicolas; Fournier, Jerome; Ganthy, Florian; Garmendia, Joxe-Mikel; Godet, Laurent; Grilo, Tiago F.; Kadel, Petra; Ondiviela, Barbara; Peralta, Gloria; Puente, Araceli; Recio, Maria; Rigouin, Loic; Valle, Mireia; Herman, Peter M. J.; Bouma, Tjeerd J.

    2018-01-01

    Seagrass meadows form highly productive and valuable ecosystems in the marine environment. Throughout the year, seagrass meadows are exposed to abiotic and biotic variations linked to (i) seasonal fluctuations, (ii) short-term stress events such as, e.g., local nutrient enrichment, and (iii) small-scale disturbances such as, e.g., biomass removal by grazing. We hypothesized that short-term stress events and small-scale disturbances may affect seagrass chance for survival in temperate latitudes. To test this hypothesis we focused on seagrass carbon reserves in the form of starch stored seasonally in rhizomes, as these have been defined as a good indicator for winter survival. Twelve Zostera noltei meadows were monitored along a latitudinal gradient in Western Europe to firstly assess the seasonal change of their rhizomal starch content. Secondly, we tested the effects of nutrient enrichment and/or biomass removal on the corresponding starch content by using a short-term manipulative field experiment at a single latitude in the Netherlands. At the end of the growing season, we observed a weak but significant linear increase of starch content along the latitudinal gradient from south to north. This agrees with the contention that such reserves are essential for regrowth after winter, which is more severe in the north. In addition, we also observed a weak but significant positive relationship between starch content at the beginning of the growing season and past winter temperatures. This implies a lower regrowth potential after severe winters, due to diminished starch content at the beginning of the growing season. Short-term stress and disturbances may intensify these patterns, because our manipulative experiments show that when nutrient enrichment and biomass loss co-occurred at the end of the growing season, Z. noltei starch content declined. In temperate zones, the capacity of seagrasses to accumulate carbon reserves is expected to determine carbon-based regrowth

  20. Latitudinal Patterns in European Seagrass Carbon Reserves: Influence of Seasonal Fluctuations versus Short-Term Stress and Disturbance Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura M. Soissons

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Seagrass meadows form highly productive and valuable ecosystems in the marine environment. Throughout the year, seagrass meadows are exposed to abiotic and biotic variations linked to (i seasonal fluctuations, (ii short-term stress events such as, e.g., local nutrient enrichment, and (iii small-scale disturbances such as, e.g., biomass removal by grazing. We hypothesized that short-term stress events and small-scale disturbances may affect seagrass chance for survival in temperate latitudes. To test this hypothesis we focused on seagrass carbon reserves in the form of starch stored seasonally in rhizomes, as these have been defined as a good indicator for winter survival. Twelve Zostera noltei meadows were monitored along a latitudinal gradient in Western Europe to firstly assess the seasonal change of their rhizomal starch content. Secondly, we tested the effects of nutrient enrichment and/or biomass removal on the corresponding starch content by using a short-term manipulative field experiment at a single latitude in the Netherlands. At the end of the growing season, we observed a weak but significant linear increase of starch content along the latitudinal gradient from south to north. This agrees with the contention that such reserves are essential for regrowth after winter, which is more severe in the north. In addition, we also observed a weak but significant positive relationship between starch content at the beginning of the growing season and past winter temperatures. This implies a lower regrowth potential after severe winters, due to diminished starch content at the beginning of the growing season. Short-term stress and disturbances may intensify these patterns, because our manipulative experiments show that when nutrient enrichment and biomass loss co-occurred at the end of the growing season, Z. noltei starch content declined. In temperate zones, the capacity of seagrasses to accumulate carbon reserves is expected to determine carbon

  1. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multi-stage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benets from...... their use in decision-making. So far however, their verication is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verication tools, as well...... as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verication are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools....

  2. From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

    2009-01-01

    on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. However, this additional information may be paramount for a large class of time-dependent and multistage decision-making problems, e.g. optimal operation of combined wind-storage systems or multiple-market trading with different gate closures......Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with highly valuable information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform....... This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits the generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind generation that accounts for both the interdependence structure of prediction errors and the predictive distributions of wind power production. The method is based on the conversion...

  3. Short-term stability in refractive status despite large fluctuations in glucose levels in diabetes mellitus type 1 and 2.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byki Huntjens

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: This work investigates how short-term changes in blood glucose concentration affect the refractive components of the diabetic eye in patients with long-term Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Blood glucose concentration, refractive error components (mean spherical equivalent MSE, J0, J45, central corneal thickness (CCT, anterior chamber depth (ACD, crystalline lens thickness (LT, axial length (AL and ocular aberrations were monitored at two-hourly intervals over a 12-hour period in: 20 T1DM patients (mean age ± SD 38±14 years, baseline HbA1c 8.6±1.9%; 21 T2DM patients (mean age ± SD 56±11 years, HbA1c 7.5±1.8%; and in 20 control subjects (mean age ± SD 49±23 years, HbA1c 5.5±0.5%. The refractive and biometric results were compared with the corresponding changes in blood glucose concentration. RESULTS: Blood glucose concentration at different times was found to vary significantly within (p0.05. Minor changes of marginal statistical or optical significance were observed in some biometric parameters. Similarly there were some marginally significant differences between the baseline biometric parameters of well-controlled and poorly-controlled diabetic subjects. CONCLUSION: This work suggests that normal, short-term fluctuations (of up to about 6 mM/l on a timescale of a few hours in the blood glucose levels of diabetics are not usually associated with acute changes in refractive error or ocular wavefront aberrations. It is therefore possible that factors other than refractive error fluctuations are sometimes responsible for the transient visual problems often reported by diabetic patients.

  4. Developing a Local Neurofuzzy Model for Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Faghihnia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Large scale integration of wind generation capacity into power systems introduces operational challenges due to wind power uncertainty and variability. Therefore, accurate wind power forecast is important for reliable and economic operation of the power systems. Complexities and nonlinearities exhibited by wind power time series necessitate use of elaborative and sophisticated approaches for wind power forecasting. In this paper, a local neurofuzzy (LNF approach, trained by the polynomial model tree (POLYMOT learning algorithm, is proposed for short-term wind power forecasting. The LNF approach is constructed based on the contribution of local polynomial models which can efficiently model wind power generation. Data from Sotavento wind farm in Spain was used to validate the proposed LNF approach. Comparison between performance of the proposed approach and several recently published approaches illustrates capability of the LNF model for accurate wind power forecasting.

  5. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

    2011-01-01

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches.

  6. A hybrid PSO-ANFIS approach for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal); Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-01-15

    The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Wind power prediction plays a key role in tackling these challenges. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new hybrid approach, combining particle swarm optimization and adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, for short-term wind power prediction in Portugal. Significant improvements regarding forecasting accuracy are attainable using the proposed approach, in comparison with the results obtained with five other approaches. (author)

  7. Accurate Short-Term Power Forecasting of Wind Turbines: The Case of Jeju Island’s Wind Farm

    OpenAIRE

    BeomJun Park; Jin Hur

    2017-01-01

    Short-term wind power forecasting is a technique which tells system operators how much wind power can be expected at a specific time. Due to the increasing penetration of wind generating resources into the power grids, short-term wind power forecasting is becoming an important issue for grid integration analysis. The high reliability of wind power forecasting can contribute to the successful integration of wind generating resources into the power grids. To guarantee the reliability of forecas...

  8. Intelligent and robust prediction of short term wind power using genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zameer, Aneela; Arshad, Junaid; Khan, Asifullah; Raja, Muhammad Asif Zahoor

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Genetic programming based ensemble of neural networks is employed for short term wind power prediction. • Proposed predictor shows resilience against abrupt changes in weather. • Genetic programming evolves nonlinear mapping between meteorological measures and wind-power. • Proposed approach gives mathematical expressions of wind power to its independent variables. • Proposed model shows relatively accurate and steady wind-power prediction performance. - Abstract: The inherent instability of wind power production leads to critical problems for smooth power generation from wind turbines, which then requires an accurate forecast of wind power. In this study, an effective short term wind power prediction methodology is presented, which uses an intelligent ensemble regressor that comprises Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Programming. In contrast to existing series based combination of wind power predictors, whereby the error or variation in the leading predictor is propagated down the stream to the next predictors, the proposed intelligent ensemble predictor avoids this shortcoming by introducing Genetical Programming based semi-stochastic combination of neural networks. It is observed that the decision of the individual base regressors may vary due to the frequent and inherent fluctuations in the atmospheric conditions and thus meteorological properties. The novelty of the reported work lies in creating ensemble to generate an intelligent, collective and robust decision space and thereby avoiding large errors due to the sensitivity of the individual wind predictors. The proposed ensemble based regressor, Genetic Programming based ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks, has been implemented and tested on data taken from five different wind farms located in Europe. Obtained numerical results of the proposed model in terms of various error measures are compared with the recent artificial intelligence based strategies to demonstrate the

  9. Short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal by neural networks and wavelet transform

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Catalao, J.P.S. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Center for Innovation in Electrical and Energy Engineering, Instituto Superior Tecnico, Technical University of Lisbon, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 Lisbon (Portugal); Pousinho, H.M.I. [Department of Electromechanical Engineering, University of Beira Interior, R. Fonte do Lameiro, 6201-001 Covilha (Portugal); Mendes, V.M.F. [Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa, R. Conselheiro Emidio Navarro, 1950-062 Lisbon (Portugal)

    2011-04-15

    This paper proposes artificial neural networks in combination with wavelet transform for short-term wind power forecasting in Portugal. The increased integration of wind power into the electric grid, as nowadays occurs in Portugal, poses new challenges due to its intermittency and volatility. Hence, good forecasting tools play a key role in tackling these challenges. Results from a real-world case study are presented. A comparison is carried out, taking into account the results obtained with other approaches. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. (author)

  10. Simple and reliable procedure for the evaluation of short-term dynamic processes in power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Popovic, D P

    1986-10-01

    An efficient approach is presented to the solution of the short-term dynamics model in power systems. It consists of an adequate algebraic treatment of the original system of nonlinear differential equations, using linearization, decomposition and Cauchy's formula. The simple difference equations obtained in this way are incorporated into a model of the electrical network, which is of a low order compared to the ones usually used. Newton's method is applied to the model formed in this way, which leads to a simple and reliable iterative procedure. The characteristics of the procedure developed are demonstrated on examples of transient stability analysis of real power systems. 12 refs.

  11. Evaluation of short-term tracer fluctuations in groundwater and soil air in a two year study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenner, Florian; Mayer, Simon; Aeschbach, Werner; Weissbach, Therese

    2016-04-01

    The application of gas tracers like noble gases (NGs), SF6 or CFCs in groundwater studies such as paleo temperature determination requires a detailed understanding of the dynamics of reactive and inert gases in the soil air with which the infiltrating water equilibrates. Due to microbial gas consumption and production, NG partial pressures in soil air can deviate from atmospheric air, an effect that could bias noble gas temperatures estimates if not taken into account. So far, such an impact on NG contents in groundwater has not been directly demonstrated. We provide the first long-term study of the above mentioned gas tracers and physical parameters in both the saturated and unsaturated soil zone, sampled continuously for more than two years near Mannheim (Germany). NG partial pressures in soil air correlate with soil moisture and the sum value of O2+CO2, with a maximal significant enhancement of 3-6% with respect to atmospheric air during summer time. Observed seasonal fluctuations result in a mass dependent fractionation of NGs in soil air. Concentrations of SF6 and CFCs in soil air are determined by corresponding fluctuations in local atmospheric air, caused by industrial emissions. Arising concentration peaks are damped with increasing soil depth. Shallow groundwater shows short-term NG fluctuations which are smoothed within a few meters below the water table. A correlation between NG contents of soil air and of groundwater is observable during strong recharge events. However, there is no evidence for a permanent influence of seasonal variations of soil air composition on shallow groundwater. Fluctuating NG contents in shallow groundwater are rather determined by variations of soil temperature and water table level. Our data gives evidence for a further temperature driven equilibration of groundwater with entrapped air bubbles within the topmost saturated zone, which permanently occurs even some years after recharge. Local subsurface temperature fluctuations

  12. Short-term wind power forecasting: probabilistic and space-time aspects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tastu, Julija

    work deals with the proposal and evaluation of new mathematical models and forecasting methods for short-term wind power forecasting, accounting for space-time dynamics based on geographically distributed information. Different forms of power predictions are considered, starting from traditional point...... into the corresponding models are analysed. As a final step, emphasis is placed on generating space-time trajectories: this calls for the prediction of joint multivariate predictive densities describing wind power generation at a number of distributed locations and for a number of successive lead times. In addition......Optimal integration of wind energy into power systems calls for high quality wind power predictions. State-of-the-art forecasting systems typically provide forecasts for every location individually, without taking into account information coming from the neighbouring territories. It is however...

  13. A Novel Hybrid Model for Short-Term Forecasting in PV Power Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuan-Kang Wu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The increasing use of solar power as a source of electricity has led to increased interest in forecasting its power output over short-time horizons. Short-term forecasts are needed for operational planning, switching sources, programming backup, reserve usage, and peak load matching. However, the output of a photovoltaic (PV system is influenced by irradiation, cloud cover, and other weather conditions. These factors make it difficult to conduct short-term PV output forecasting. In this paper, an experimental database of solar power output, solar irradiance, air, and module temperature data has been utilized. It includes data from the Green Energy Office Building in Malaysia, the Taichung Thermal Plant of Taipower, and National Penghu University. Based on the historical PV power and weather data provided in the experiment, all factors that influence photovoltaic-generated energy are discussed. Moreover, five types of forecasting modules were developed and utilized to predict the one-hour-ahead PV output. They include the ARIMA, SVM, ANN, ANFIS, and the combination models using GA algorithm. Forecasting results show the high precision and efficiency of this combination model. Therefore, the proposed model is suitable for ensuring the stable operation of a photovoltaic generation system.

  14. Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

    2007-01-01

    Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform...... on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind...

  15. Short term economic emission power scheduling of hydrothermal energy systems using improved water cycle algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haroon, S.S.; Malik, T.N.

    2017-01-01

    Due to the increasing environmental concerns, the demand of clean and green energy and concern of atmospheric pollution is increasing. Hence, the power utilities are forced to limit their emissions within the prescribed limits. Therefore, the minimization of fuel cost as well as exhaust gas emissions is becoming an important and challenging task in the short-term scheduling of hydro-thermal energy systems. This paper proposes a novel algorithm known as WCA-ER (Water Cycle Algorithm with Evaporation Rate) to inspect the short term EEPSHES (Economic Emission Power Scheduling of Hydrothermal Energy Systems). WCA has its ancestries from the natural hydrologic cycle i.e. the raining process forms streams and these streams start flowing towards the rivers which finally flow towards the sea. The worth of WCA-ER has been tested on the standard economic emission power scheduling of hydrothermal energy test system consisting of four hydropower and three thermal plants. The problem has been investigated for the three case studies (i) ECS (Economic Cost Scheduling), (ii) ES (Economic Emission Scheduling) and (iii) ECES (Economic Cost and Emission Scheduling). The results obtained show that WCA-ER is superior to many other methods in the literature in bringing lower fuel cost and emissions. (author)

  16. Evaluating the quality of scenarios of short-term wind power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinson, P.; Girard, R.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Presentation of the desirable properties of wind power generation scenarios. ► Description of various evaluation frameworks (univariate, multivariate, diagnostic). ► Highlighting of the properties of current approaches to scenario generation. ► Guidelines for future evaluation/benchmark exercises. -- Abstract: Scenarios of short-term wind power generation are becoming increasingly popular as input to multistage decision-making problems e.g. multivariate stochastic optimization and stochastic programming. The quality of these scenarios is intuitively expected to substantially impact the benefits from their use in decision-making. So far however, their verification is almost always focused on their marginal distributions for each individual lead time only, thus overlooking their temporal interdependence structure. The shortcomings of such an approach are discussed. Multivariate verification tools, as well as diagnostic approaches based on event-based verification are then presented. Their application to the evaluation of various sets of scenarios of short-term wind power generation demonstrates them as valuable discrimination tools.

  17. Health Effects of Short-Term Fluctuations in Macroeconomic Conditions: The Case of Hypertension for Older Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angrisani, Marco; Lee, Jinkook

    2016-11-01

    We investigate the health effects of short-term macroeconomic fluctuations as described by changes in unemployment rate, house, and stock market price indexes. The 'Great Recession' provides the opportunity to conduct this analysis as it involved contemporaneous shocks to the labor, housing, and stock markets. Using panel data from the Health and Retirement Study over the period 2004-2010, we relate changes in hypertension status to changes in state-level unemployment rate and house prices and to changes in stock market prices. We consider hypertension, a disease related to stress and of high prevalence among older adults, that has received little attention in the literature linking macroeconomic conditions to individual health. Our analysis exploits self-reports of hypertension diagnosis as well as directly measured blood pressure readings. Using both measures, we find that the likelihood of developing hypertension is negatively related to changes in house prices. Also, decreasing house prices lower the probability of stopping hypertension medication treatment for individuals previously diagnosed with the condition. We do not observe significant associations between hypertension and either changes in unemployment rate or stock market prices. We document heterogeneity in the estimated health effects of the recession by gender, education, asset ownership, and work status. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Comparison of two new short-term wind-power forecasting systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J. [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza (Spain); Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo [Department of Electrical Engineering, University of La Rioja, Logrono (Spain); Monteiro, Claudio; Sousa, Joao; Bessa, Ricardo [FEUP, Fac. Engenharia Univ. Porto (Portugal)]|[INESC - Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores do Porto, Porto (Portugal)

    2009-07-15

    This paper presents a comparison of two new advanced statistical short-term wind-power forecasting systems developed by two independent research teams. The input variables used in both systems were the same: forecasted meteorological variable values obtained from a numerical weather prediction model; and electric power-generation registers from the SCADA system of the wind farm. Both systems are described in detail and the forecasting results compared, revealing great similarities, although the proposed structures of the two systems are different. The forecast horizon for both systems is 72 h, allowing the use of the forecasted values in electric market operations, as diary and intra-diary power generation bid offers, and in wind-farm maintenance planning. (author)

  19. Swarm Intelligence-Based Hybrid Models for Short-Term Power Load Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianzhou Wang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Swarm intelligence (SI is widely and successfully applied in the engineering field to solve practical optimization problems because various hybrid models, which are based on the SI algorithm and statistical models, are developed to further improve the predictive abilities. In this paper, hybrid intelligent forecasting models based on the cuckoo search (CS as well as the singular spectrum analysis (SSA, time series, and machine learning methods are proposed to conduct short-term power load prediction. The forecasting performance of the proposed models is augmented by a rolling multistep strategy over the prediction horizon. The test results are representative of the out-performance of the SSA and CS in tuning the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA and support vector regression (SVR in improving load forecasting, which indicates that both the SSA-based data denoising and SI-based intelligent optimization strategy can effectively improve the model’s predictive performance. Additionally, the proposed CS-SSA-SARIMA and CS-SSA-SVR models provide very impressive forecasting results, demonstrating their strong robustness and universal forecasting capacities in terms of short-term power load prediction 24 hours in advance.

  20. Very-short-term wind power probabilistic forecasts by sparse vector autoregression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dowell, Jethro; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    A spatio-temporal method for producing very-shortterm parametric probabilistic wind power forecasts at a large number of locations is presented. Smart grids containing tens, or hundreds, of wind generators require skilled very-short-term forecasts to operate effectively, and spatial information...... is highly desirable. In addition, probabilistic forecasts are widely regarded as necessary for optimal power system management as they quantify the uncertainty associated with point forecasts. Here we work within a parametric framework based on the logit-normal distribution and forecast its parameters....... The location parameter for multiple wind farms is modelled as a vector-valued spatiotemporal process, and the scale parameter is tracked by modified exponential smoothing. A state-of-the-art technique for fitting sparse vector autoregressive models is employed to model the location parameter and demonstrates...

  1. Economic evaluation of short-term wind power forecast in ERCOT. Preliminary results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orwig, Kirsten D.; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Brinkman, Greg; Ela, Erik; Milligan, Michael [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Banunarayanan, Venkat; Nasir, Saleh [ICF International, Fairfax, VA (United States); Freedman, Jeff [AWS Truepower, Albany, NY (United States)

    2012-07-01

    A number of wind energy integration studies have investigated the monetary value of using day-ahead wind power forecasts for grid operation decisions. Historically, these studies have shown that large cost savings could be gained by grid operators implementing the forecasts in their system operations. To date, none of these studies have investigated the value of shorter term (0- to 6-h ahead) wind power forecasts. In 2010, the Department of Energy and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration partnered to form the Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP) to fund improvements in short-term wind forecasts and determine the economic value of these improvements to grid operators. In this work, we discuss the preliminary results of the economic benefit analysis portion of the WFIP for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas. The improvements seen in the wind forecasts are examined and the economic results of a production cost model simulation are analyzed. (orig.)

  2. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Based on Clustering Pre-Calculated CFD Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yimei Wang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available To meet the increasing wind power forecasting (WPF demands of newly built wind farms without historical data, physical WPF methods are widely used. The computational fluid dynamics (CFD pre-calculated flow fields (CPFF-based WPF is a promising physical approach, which can balance well the competing demands of computational efficiency and accuracy. To enhance its adaptability for wind farms in complex terrain, a WPF method combining wind turbine clustering with CPFF is first proposed where the wind turbines in the wind farm are clustered and a forecasting is undertaken for each cluster. K-means, hierarchical agglomerative and spectral analysis methods are used to establish the wind turbine clustering models. The Silhouette Coefficient, Calinski-Harabaz index and within-between index are proposed as criteria to evaluate the effectiveness of the established clustering models. Based on different clustering methods and schemes, various clustering databases are built for clustering pre-calculated CFD (CPCC-based short-term WPF. For the wind farm case studied, clustering evaluation criteria show that hierarchical agglomerative clustering has reasonable results, spectral clustering is better and K-means gives the best performance. The WPF results produced by different clustering databases also prove the effectiveness of the three evaluation criteria in turn. The newly developed CPCC model has a much higher WPF accuracy than the CPFF model without using clustering techniques, both on temporal and spatial scales. The research provides supports for both the development and improvement of short-term physical WPF systems.

  3. A review on the young history of the wind power short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Costa, Alexandre; Navarro, Jorge [Wind Energy, Division of Renewable Energies, Department of Energy, CIEMAT, Av. Complutense, 22, Ed. 42, 28044 Madrid (Spain); Crespo, Antonio [Laboratorio de Mecanica de Fluidos, Departmento de Ingenieria Energetica y Fluidomecanica, ETSII, Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, C/Jose Gutierrez Abascal, 2-28006 Madrid (Spain); Lizcano, Gil [Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3QY (United Kingdom); Madsen, Henrik [Informatics and Mathematical Modelling - IMM, Technical University of Denmark, Richard Petersens Plads, Building 321, Office 019, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby (Denmark); Feitosa, Everaldo [Brazilian Wind Energy Centre - CBEE, Centro de Tecnologia e Geociencias, UFPE-50.740-530 Recife, PE (Brazil)

    2008-08-15

    This paper makes a brief review on 30 years of history of the wind power short-term prediction, since the first ideas and sketches on the theme to the actual state of the art on models and tools, giving emphasis to the most significant proposals and developments. The two principal lines of thought on short-term prediction (mathematical and physical) are indistinctly treated here and comparisons between models and tools are avoided, mainly because, on the one hand, a standard for a measure of performance is still not adopted and, on the other hand, it is very important that the data are exactly the same in order to compare two models (this fact makes it almost impossible to carry out a quantitative comparison between a huge number of models and methods). In place of a quantitative description, a qualitative approach is preferred for this review, remarking the contribution (and innovative aspect) of each model. On the basis of the review, some topics for future research are pointed out. (author)

  4. Short-Term Wind Power Forecasting Using the Enhanced Particle Swarm Optimization Based Hybrid Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Yeau Chang

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available High penetration of wind power in the electricity system provides many challenges to power system operators, mainly due to the unpredictability and variability of wind power generation. Although wind energy may not be dispatched, an accurate forecasting method of wind speed and power generation can help power system operators reduce the risk of an unreliable electricity supply. This paper proposes an enhanced particle swarm optimization (EPSO based hybrid forecasting method for short-term wind power forecasting. The hybrid forecasting method combines the persistence method, the back propagation neural network, and the radial basis function (RBF neural network. The EPSO algorithm is employed to optimize the weight coefficients in the hybrid forecasting method. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method, the method is tested on the practical information of wind power generation of a wind energy conversion system (WECS installed on the Taichung coast of Taiwan. Comparisons of forecasting performance are made with the individual forecasting methods. Good agreements between the realistic values and forecasting values are obtained; the test results show the proposed forecasting method is accurate and reliable.

  5. Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

    2017-05-01

    This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

  6. Short-term optimal wind power generation capacity in liberalized electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olsina, Fernando; Roescher, Mark; Larisson, Carlos; Garces, Francisco

    2007-01-01

    Mainly because of environmental concerns and fuel price uncertainties, considerable amounts of wind-based generation capacity are being added to some deregulated power systems. The rapid wind development registered in some countries has essentially been driven by strong subsidizing programs. Since wind investments are commonly isolated from market signals, installed wind capacity can be higher than optimal, leading to distortions of the power prices with a consequent loss of social welfare. In this work, the influence of wind generation on power prices in the framework of a liberalized electricity market has been assessed by means of stochastic simulation techniques. The developed methodology allows investigating the maximal wind capacity that would be profitably deployed if wind investments were subject to market conditions only. For this purpose, stochastic variables determining power prices are accurately modeled. A test system resembling the size and characteristics of the German power system has been selected for this study. The expected value of the optimal, short-term wind capacity is evaluated for a considerable number of random realizations of power prices. The impact of dispersing the wind capacity over statistical independent wind sites has also been evaluated. The simulation results reveal that fuel prices, installation and financing costs of wind investments are very influential parameters on the maximal wind capacity that might be accommodated in a market-based manner

  7. Power profiles and short-term visual performance of soft contact lenses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papas, Eric; Dahms, Anne; Carnt, Nicole; Tahhan, Nina; Ehrmann, Klaus

    2009-04-01

    To investigate the manner in which contemporary soft contact lenses differ in the distribution of optical power within their optic zones and establish if these variations affect the vision of wearers or the prescribing procedure for back vertex power (BVP). By using a Visionix VC 2001 contact lens power analyzer, power profiles were measured across the optic zones of the following contemporary contact lenses ACUVUE 2, ACUVUE ADVANCE, O2OPTIX, NIGHT & DAY and PureVision. Single BVP measures were obtained using a Nikon projection lensometer. Visual performance was assessed in 28 masked subjects who wore each lens type in random order. Measurements taken were high and low contrast visual acuity in normal illumination (250 Cd/m), high contrast acuity in reduced illumination (5 Cd/m), subjective visual quality using a numerical rating scale, and visual satisfaction rating using a Likert scale. Marked differences in the distribution of optical power across the optic zone were evident among the lens types. No significant differences were found for any of the visual performance variables (p > 0.05, analysis of variance with repeated measures and Friedman test). Variations in power profile between contemporary soft lens types exist but do not, in general, result in measurable visual performance differences in the short term, nor do they substantially influence the BVP required for optimal correction.

  8. Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radziukynas, V.; Klementavičius, A.

    2016-04-01

    The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011) and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023).

  9. Short-Term Forecasting of Loads and Wind Power for Latvian Power System: Accuracy and Capacity of the Developed Tools

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radziukynas V.

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyses the performance results of the recently developed short-term forecasting suit for the Latvian power system. The system load and wind power are forecasted using ANN and ARIMA models, respectively, and the forecasting accuracy is evaluated in terms of errors, mean absolute errors and mean absolute percentage errors. The investigation of influence of additional input variables on load forecasting errors is performed. The interplay of hourly loads and wind power forecasting errors is also evaluated for the Latvian power system with historical loads (the year 2011 and planned wind power capacities (the year 2023.

  10. Short-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wenfeng; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Wang, Yubin Mao; Wang, Jiangbo; He, Dandan

    2018-04-01

    Short-term electricity demand forecasting is the basic work to ensure safe operation of the power system. In this paper, a practical economic electricity transmission model (EETM) is built. With the intelligent adaptive modeling capabilities of Prognoz Platform 7.2, the econometric model consists of three industrial added value and income levels is firstly built, the electricity demand transmission model is also built. By multiple regression, moving averages and seasonal decomposition, the problem of multiple correlations between variables is effectively overcome in EETM. The validity of EETM is proved by comparison with the actual value of Henan Province. Finally, EETM model is used to forecast the electricity consumption of the 1-4 quarter of 2018.

  11. Adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using artificial neural networks in the restructured power markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamin, H.Y.; Shahidehpour, S.M.; Li, Z.

    2004-01-01

    This paper proposes a comprehensive model for the adaptive short-term electricity price forecasting using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in the restructured power markets. The model consists: price simulation, price forecasting, and performance analysis. The factors impacting the electricity price forecasting, including time factors, load factors, reserve factors, and historical price factor are discussed. We adopted ANN and proposed a new definition for the MAPE using the median to study the relationship between these factors and market price as well as the performance of the electricity price forecasting. The reserve factors are included to enhance the performance of the forecasting process. The proposed model handles the price spikes more efficiently due to considering the median instead of the average. The IEEE 118-bus system and California practical system are used to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed model. (author)

  12. Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

    2014-01-01

    Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds.

  13. Preparatory Body State before Reacting to an Opponent: Short-Term Joint Torque Fluctuation in Real-Time Competitive Sports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujii, Keisuke; Yamashita, Daichi; Kimura, Tetsuya; Isaka, Tadao; Kouzaki, Motoki

    2015-01-01

    , irrespective of the outcome. These results indicate that the preparatory body state as explained by short-term joint torque fluctuations before the defensive step would help explain the performance in competitive sports, and will give insights into understanding human adaptive behavior in unpredicted and uncontrolled environments.

  14. Combined heat and power production planning in a waste-to-energy plant on a short-term basis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Touš, Michal; Pavlas, Martin; Putna, Ondřej; Stehlík, Petr; Crha, Lukáš

    2015-01-01

    In many cases, WtE (waste-to-energy) plants are CHP (combined heat and power) producers. They are often integrated into a central heating system and they also export electricity to the grid. Therefore, they have to plan their operation on a long-term basis (months, years) as well as on a short-term basis (hours, days). Simulation models can effectively support decision making in CHP production planning. In general, CHP production planning on a short-term basis is a challenging task for WtE plants. This article presents a simulation based support. It is demonstrated on an example involving a real WtE plant. Most of the models of relevant WtE sub-systems (boilers, steam turbine) are developed using operational data and applying linear regression and artificial neural network technique. The process randomness given mainly by fluctuating heating value of waste leads to uncertainty in a calculation of CHP production and a stochastic approach is appropriate. The models of the sub-systems are, therefore, extended of a stochastic part and Monte-Carlo simulation is applied. Compared to the current planning strategy in the involved WtE plant, the stochastic simulation based planning provides increased CHP production resulting in better net thermal efficiency and increased revenue. This is demonstrated through a comparison using real operational data. - Highlights: • Introduction of a stochastic model of a CHP production in a waste-to-energy plant. • An application of the model for the next day CHP production planning. • Better net thermal efficiency and therefore increased revenue achieved.

  15. An Advanced Bayesian Method for Short-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of the Generation of Wind Power

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Bracale

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Currently, among renewable distributed generation systems, wind generators are receiving a great deal of interest due to the great economic, technological, and environmental incentives they involve. However, the uncertainties due to the intermittent nature of wind energy make it difficult to operate electrical power systems optimally and make decisions that satisfy the needs of all the stakeholders of the electricity energy market. Thus, there is increasing interest determining how to forecast wind power production accurately. Most the methods that have been published in the relevant literature provided deterministic forecasts even though great interest has been focused recently on probabilistic forecast methods. In this paper, an advanced probabilistic method is proposed for short-term forecasting of wind power production. A mixture of two Weibull distributions was used as a probability function to model the uncertainties associated with wind speed. Then, a Bayesian inference approach with a particularly-effective, autoregressive, integrated, moving-average model was used to determine the parameters of the mixture Weibull distribution. Numerical applications also are presented to provide evidence of the forecasting performance of the Bayesian-based approach.

  16. A New Neural Network Approach to Short Term Load Forecasting of Electrical Power Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farshid Keynia

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecast (STLF is an important operational function in both regulated power systems and deregulated open electricity markets. However, STLF is not easy to handle due to the nonlinear and random-like behaviors of system loads, weather conditions, and social and economic environment variations. Despite the research work performed in the area, more accurate and robust STLF methods are still needed due to the importance and complexity of STLF. In this paper, a new neural network approach for STLF is proposed. The proposed neural network has a novel learning algorithm based on a new modified harmony search technique. This learning algorithm can widely search the solution space in various directions, and it can also avoid the overfitting problem, trapping in local minima and dead bands. Based on this learning algorithm, the suggested neural network can efficiently extract the input/output mapping function of the forecast process leading to high STLF accuracy. The proposed approach is tested on two practical power systems and the results obtained are compared with the results of several other recently published STLF methods. These comparisons confirm the validity of the developed approach.

  17. A short-term ensemble wind speed forecasting system for wind power applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baidya Roy, S.; Traiteur, J. J.; Callicutt, D.; Smith, M.

    2011-12-01

    This study develops an adaptive, blended forecasting system to provide accurate wind speed forecasts 1 hour ahead of time for wind power applications. The system consists of an ensemble of 21 forecasts with different configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting Single Column Model (WRFSCM) and a persistence model. The ensemble is calibrated against observations for a 2 month period (June-July, 2008) at a potential wind farm site in Illinois using the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) technique. The forecasting system is evaluated against observations for August 2008 at the same site. The calibrated ensemble forecasts significantly outperform the forecasts from the uncalibrated ensemble while significantly reducing forecast uncertainty under all environmental stability conditions. The system also generates significantly better forecasts than persistence, autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models during the morning transition and the diurnal convective regimes. This forecasting system is computationally more efficient than traditional numerical weather prediction models and can generate a calibrated forecast, including model runs and calibration, in approximately 1 minute. Currently, hour-ahead wind speed forecasts are almost exclusively produced using statistical models. However, numerical models have several distinct advantages over statistical models including the potential to provide turbulence forecasts. Hence, there is an urgent need to explore the role of numerical models in short-term wind speed forecasting. This work is a step in that direction and is likely to trigger a debate within the wind speed forecasting community.

  18. Wind Power Forecasting Based on Echo State Networks and Long Short-Term Memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erick López

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Wind power generation has presented an important development around the world. However, its integration into electrical systems presents numerous challenges due to the variable nature of the wind. Therefore, to maintain an economical and reliable electricity supply, it is necessary to accurately predict wind generation. The Wind Power Prediction Tool (WPPT has been proposed to solve this task using the power curve associated with a wind farm. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs model complex non-linear relationships without requiring explicit mathematical expressions that relate the variables involved. In particular, two types of RNN, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM and Echo State Network (ESN, have shown good results in time series forecasting. In this work, we present an LSTM+ESN architecture that combines the characteristics of both networks. An architecture similar to an ESN is proposed, but using LSTM blocks as units in the hidden layer. The training process of this network has two key stages: (i the hidden layer is trained with a descending gradient method online using one epoch; (ii the output layer is adjusted with a regularized regression. In particular, the case is proposed where Step (i is used as a target for the input signal, in order to extract characteristics automatically as the autoencoder approach; and in the second stage (ii, a quantile regression is used in order to obtain a robust estimate of the expected target. The experimental results show that LSTM+ESN using the autoencoder and quantile regression outperforms the WPPT model in all global metrics used.

  19. Super short term forecasting of photovoltaic power generation output in micro grid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Cheng; Ma, Longfei; Chi, Zhongjun; Zhang, Baoqun; Jiao, Ran; Yang, Bing; Chen, Jianshu; Zeng, Shuang

    2017-01-01

    The prediction model combining data mining and support vector machine (SVM) was built. Which provide information of photovoltaic (PV) power generation output for economic operation and optimal control of micro gird, and which reduce influence of power system from PV fluctuation. Because of the characteristic which output of PV rely on radiation intensity, ambient temperature, cloudiness, etc., so data mining was brought in. This technology can deal with large amounts of historical data and eliminate superfluous data, by using fuzzy classifier of daily type and grey related degree. The model of SVM was built, which can dock with information from data mining. Based on measured data from a small PV station, the prediction model was tested. The numerical example shows that the prediction model is fast and accurate.

  20. Trading wind generation from short-term probabilistic forecasts of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Chevallier, Christophe; Kariniotakis, Georges

    2007-01-01

    Due to the fluctuating nature of the wind resource, a wind power producer participating in a liberalized electricity market is subject to penalties related to regulation costs. Accurate forecasts of wind generation are therefore paramount for reducing such penalties and thus maximizing revenue......, as well as on modeling of the sensitivity a wind power producer may have to regulation costs. The benefits resulting from the application of these strategies are clearly demonstrated on the test case of the participation of a multi-MW wind farm in the Dutch electricity market over a year....... participation. Such strategies permit to further increase revenues and thus enhance competitiveness of wind generation compared to other forms of dispatchable generation. This paper formulates a general methodology for deriving optimal bidding strategies based on probabilistic forecasts of wind generation...

  1. Does stress affect the joints? Daily stressors, stress vulnerability, immune and HPA axis activity, and short-term disease and symptom fluctuations in rheumatoid arthritis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evers, Andrea W M; Verhoeven, Elisabeth W M; van Middendorp, Henriët; Sweep, Fred C G J; Kraaimaat, Floris W; Donders, A Rogier T; Eijsbouts, Agnes E; van Laarhoven, Antoinette I M; de Brouwer, Sabine J M; Wirken, Lieke; Radstake, Timothy R D J; van Riel, Piet L C M

    2014-09-01

    Both stressors and stress vulnerability factors together with immune and hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity components have been considered to contribute to disease fluctuations of chronic inflammatory diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The aim of the present study was to investigate whether daily stressors and worrying as stress vulnerability factor as well as immune and HPA axis activity markers predict short-term disease activity and symptom fluctuations in patients with RA. In a prospective design, daily stressors, worrying, HPA axis (cortisol) and immune system (interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6, IL-8, interferon (IFN)-γ, tumour necrosis factor α) markers, clinical and self-reported disease activity (disease activity score in 28 joints, RA disease activity index), and physical symptoms of pain and fatigue were monitored monthly during 6 months in 80 RA patients. Multilevel modelling indicated that daily stressors predicted increased fatigue in the next month and that worrying predicted increased self-reported disease activity, swollen joint count and pain in the next month. In addition, specific cytokines of IL-1β and IFN-γ predicted increased fatigue 1 month later. Overall, relationships remained relatively unchanged after controlling for medication use, disease duration and demographic variables. No evidence was found for immune and HPA axis activity markers as mediators of the stress-disease relationship. Daily stressors and the stress-vulnerability factor worrying predict indicators of the short-term course of RA disease activity and fatigue and pain, while specific cytokines predict short-term fluctuations of fatigue. These stress-related variables and immune markers seem to affect different aspects of disease activity or symptom fluctuations independently in RA. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  2. The state-of-the-art in short-term prediction of wind power. A literature overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Brownsword, R.; Kariniotakis, G.

    2003-08-01

    Based on an appropriate questionnaire (WP1.1) and some other works already in progress, this report details the state-of-the-art in short term prediction of wind power, mostly summarising nearly all existing literature on the topic. (au)

  3. Wind Power Forecasting Based on Echo State Networks and Long Short-Term Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    López, Erick; Allende, Héctor; Gil, Esteban

    2018-01-01

    involved. In particular, two types of RNN, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Echo State Network (ESN), have shown good results in time series forecasting. In this work, we present an LSTM+ESN architecture that combines the characteristics of both networks. An architecture similar to an ESN is proposed...

  4. Dynamics of cyanobacterial bloom formation during short-term hydrodynamic fluctuation in a large shallow, eutrophic, and wind-exposed Lake Taihu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tingfeng; Qin, Boqiang; Zhu, Guangwei; Luo, Liancong; Ding, Yanqing; Bian, Geya

    2013-12-01

    Short-term hydrodynamic fluctuations caused by extreme weather events are expected to increase worldwide because of global climate change, and such fluctuations can strongly influence cyanobacterial blooms. In this study, the cyanobacterial bloom disappearance and reappearance in Lake Taihu, China, in response to short-term hydrodynamic fluctuations, was investigated by field sampling, long-term ecological records, high-frequency sensors and MODIS satellite images. The horizontal drift caused by the dominant easterly wind during the phytoplankton growth season was mainly responsible for cyanobacterial biomass accumulation in the western and northern regions of the lake and subsequent bloom formation over relatively long time scales. The cyanobacterial bloom changed slowly under calm or gentle wind conditions. In contrast, the short-term bloom events within a day were mainly caused by entrainment and disentrainment of cyanobacterial colonies by wind-induced hydrodynamics. Observation of a westerly event in Lake Taihu revealed that when the 30 min mean wind speed (flow speed) exceeded the threshold value of 6 m/s (5.7 cm/s), cyanobacteria in colonies were entrained by the wind-induced hydrodynamics. Subsequently, the vertical migration of cyanobacterial colonies was controlled by hydrodynamics, resulting in thorough mixing of algal biomass throughout the water depth and the eventual disappearance of surface blooms. Moreover, the intense mixing can also increase the chance for forming larger and more cyanobacterial colonies, namely, aggregation. Subsequently, when the hydrodynamics became weak, the cyanobacterial colonies continuously float upward without effective buoyancy regulation, and cause cyanobacterial bloom explosive expansion after the westerly. Furthermore, the results of this study indicate that the strong wind happening frequently during April and October can be an important cause of the formation and expansion of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu.

  5. Stochastic Dynamic AC Optimal Power Flow Based on a Multivariate Short-Term Wind Power Scenario Forecasting Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenlei Bai

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The deterministic methods generally used to solve DC optimal power flow (OPF do not fully capture the uncertainty information in wind power, and thus their solutions could be suboptimal. However, the stochastic dynamic AC OPF problem can be used to find an optimal solution by fully capturing the uncertainty information of wind power. That uncertainty information of future wind power can be well represented by the short-term future wind power scenarios that are forecasted using the generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM—a novel multivariate statistical wind power forecasting model. Furthermore, the GDFM can accurately represent the spatial and temporal correlations among wind farms through the multivariate stochastic process. Fully capturing the uncertainty information in the spatially and temporally correlated GDFM scenarios can lead to a better AC OPF solution under a high penetration level of wind power. Since the GDFM is a factor analysis based model, the computational time can also be reduced. In order to further reduce the computational time, a modified artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm is used to solve the AC OPF problem based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios. Using the modified ABC algorithm based on the GDFM forecasting scenarios has resulted in better AC OPF’ solutions on an IEEE 118-bus system at every hour for 24 h.

  6. Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power with generalized logit-Normal distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    and probability masses at the bounds. Both auto-regressive and conditional parametric auto-regressive models are considered for the dynamics of their location and scale parameters. Estimation is performed in a recursive least squares framework with exponential forgetting. The superiority of this proposal over......Very-short-term probabilistic forecasts, which are essential for an optimal management of wind generation, ought to account for the non-linear and double-bounded nature of that stochastic process. They take here the form of discrete–continuous mixtures of generalized logit–normal distributions...

  7. An analysis of the performance benefits of short-term energy storage in wind-diesel hybrid power systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shirazi, M.; Drouilhet, S.

    1996-01-01

    A variety of prototype high penetration wind-diesel hybrid power systems have been implemented with different amounts of energy storage. They range from systems with no energy storage to those with many hours worth of energy storage. There has been little consensus among wind-diesel system developers as to the appropriate role and amount of energy storage in such systems. Some researchers advocate providing only enough storage capacity to supply power during the time it takes the diesel genset to start. Others install large battery banks to allow the diesel(s) to operate at full load and/or to time-shift the availability of wind-generated electricity to match the demand. Prior studies indicate that for high penetration wind-diesel systems, short-term energy storage provides the largest operational and economic benefit. This study uses data collected in Deering, Alaska, a small diesel-powered village, and the hybrid systems modeling software Hybrid2 to determine the optimum amount of short-term storage for a particular high penetration wind-diesel system. These findings were then generalized by determining how wind penetration, turbulence intensity, and load variability affect the value of short term energy storage as measured in terms of fuel savings, total diesel run time, and the number of diesel starts

  8. Benefits for wind energy in electricity markets from using short term wind power prediction tools: a simulation study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usaola, J.; Ravelo, O.; Gonzalez, G.; Soto, F.; Davila, M.C.; Diaz-Guerra, B.

    2004-01-01

    One of the characteristics of wind energy, from the grid point of view, is its non-dispatchability, i.e. generation cannot be ordered, hence integration in electrical networks may be difficult. Short-term wind power prediction-tools could make this integration easier, either by their use by the grid System Operator, or by promoting the participation of wind farms in the electricity markets and using prediction tools to make their bids in the market. In this paper, the importance of a short-term wind power-prediction tool for the participation of wind energy systems in electricity markets is studied. Simulations, according to the current Spanish market rules, have been performed to the production of different wind farms, with different degrees of accuracy in the prediction tool. It may be concluded that income from participation in electricity markets is increased using a short-term wind power prediction-tool of average accuracy. This both marginally increases income and also reduces the impact on system operation with the improved forecasts. (author)

  9. A fast network solution by the decoupled procedure during short-term dynamic processes in power systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Popovic, D P; Stefanovic, M D [Nikola Tesla Inst., Belgrade (YU). Power System Dept.

    1990-01-01

    A simple, fast and reliable decoupled procedure for solving the network problems during short-term dynamic processes in power systems is presented. It is based on the Newton-Raphson method applied to the power balance equations, which include the effects of generator saliency and non-impedance loads, with further modifications resulting from the physical properties of the phenomena under study. The good convergence characteristics of the developed procedure are demonstrated, and a comparison is made with the traditional method based on the current equation and the triangularized admittance matrix, using the example of stability analysis of the Yugoslav power grid. (author).

  10. Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mills, Andrew; Wiser, Ryan

    2010-08-23

    Worldwide interest in the deployment of photovoltaic generation (PV) is rapidly increasing. Operating experience with large PV plants, however, demonstrates that large, rapid changes in the output of PV plants are possible. Early studies of PV grid impacts suggested that short-term variability could be a potential limiting factor in deploying PV. Many of these early studies, however, lacked high-quality data from multiple sites to assess the costs and impacts of increasing PV penetration. As is well known for wind, accounting for the potential for geographic diversity can significantly reduce the magnitude of extreme changes in aggregated PV output, the resources required to accommodate that variability, and the potential costs of managing variability. We use measured 1-min solar insolation for 23 time-synchronized sites in the Southern Great Plains network of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program and wind speed data from 10 sites in the same network to characterize the variability of PV with different degrees of geographic diversity and to compare the variability of PV to the variability of similarly sited wind. The relative aggregate variability of PV plants sited in a dense 10 x 10 array with 20 km spacing is six times less than the variability of a single site for variability on time scales less than 15-min. We find in our analysis of wind and PV plants similarly sited in a 5 x 5 grid with 50 km spacing that the variability of PV is only slightly more than the variability of wind on time scales of 5-15 min. Over shorter and longer time scales the level of variability is nearly identical. Finally, we use a simple approximation method to estimate the cost of carrying additional reserves to manage sub-hourly variability. We conclude that the costs of managing the short-term variability of PV are dramatically reduced by geographic diversity and are not substantially different from the costs for managing the short-term variability of similarly sited wind in

  11. Short-Term and Medium-Term Reliability Evaluation for Power Systems With High Penetration of Wind Power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Singh, Chanan; Goel, Lalit

    2014-01-01

    reliability evaluation techniques for power systems are well developed. These techniques are more focused on steady-state (time-independent) reliability evaluation and have been successfully applied in power system planning and expansion. In the operational phase, however, they may be too rough......The expanding share of the fluctuating and less predictable wind power generation can introduce complexities in power system reliability evaluation and management. This entails a need for the system operator to assess the system status more accurately for securing real-time balancing. The existing...... an approximation of the time-varying behavior of power systems with high penetration of wind power. This paper proposes a time-varying reliability assessment technique. Time-varying reliability models for wind farms, conventional generating units, and rapid start-up generating units are developed and represented...

  12. Effects of massive wind power integration on short-term water resource management in central Chile - a grid-wide study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, J.; Olivares, M. A.; Palma, R.

    2013-12-01

    In central Chile, water from reservoirs and streams is mainly used for irrigation and power generation. Hydropower reservoirs operation is particularly challenging because: i) decisions at each plant impact the entire power system, and ii) the existence of large storage capacity implies inter-temporal ties. An Independent System Operator (ISO) decides the grid-wide optimal allocation of water for power generation, under irrigation-related constraints. To account for the long-term opportunity cost of water, a future cost function is determined and used in the short term planning. As population growth and green policies demand increasing levels of renewable energy in power systems, deployment of wind farms and solar plants is rising quickly. However, their power output is highly fluctuating on short time scales, affecting the operation of power plants, particularly those fast responding units as hydropower reservoirs. This study addresses these indirect consequences of massive introduction of green energy sources on reservoir operations. Short-term reservoir operation, under different wind penetration scenarios, is simulated using a replica of Chile's ISO's scheduling optimization tools. Furthermore, an ongoing study is exploring the potential to augment the capacity the existing hydro-power plants to better cope with the balancing needs due to a higher wind power share in the system. As reservoir releases determine to a great extent flows at downstream locations, hourly time series of turbined flows for 24-hour periods were computed for selected combinations between new wind farms and increased capacity of existing hydropower plants. These time series are compiled into subdaily hydrologic alteration (SDHA) indexes (Zimmerman et al, 2010). The resulting sample of indexes is then analyzed using duration curves. Results show a clear increase in the SDHA for every reservoir of the system as more fluctuating renewables are integrated into the system. High-fluctuation

  13. Forecast of electric power market to short-term: a time series approcah

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Roberio Neves Pelinca da.

    1994-01-01

    Three different time series approaches are analysed by this dissertation in the Brazilian electricity markert context. The aim is to compare the predictive performance of these approaches from a simulated exercise using the main series of the Brazilian consumption of electricity: Total Consumption, Industrial Consumption, Residencial Consumption and Commercial Consumption. One concludes that these appraches offer an enormous potentiality to the short-term planning system of the Electric Sector. Among the univariate models, the results for the analysed period point out that the forecast produced by Holt-Winter's models are more accurate than those produced by ARIMA and structural models. When explanatory variables are introduced in the last models, one can notice, in general, an improvement in the predictive performance of the models, although there is no sufficient evidence to consider that they are superior to Holt-Winter's models. The models with explanatory variables can be particularly useful, however, when one intends either to build scenarios or to study the effects of some variables on the consumption of electricity. (author). 73 refs., 19 figs., 13 tabs

  14. Effect of low dose, short-term creatine supplementation on muscle power output in elite youth soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yáñez-Silva, Aquiles; Buzzachera, Cosme F; Piçarro, Ivan Da C; Januario, Renata S B; Ferreira, Luis H B; McAnulty, Steven R; Utter, Alan C; Souza-Junior, Tacito P

    2017-01-01

    To determine the effects of a low dose, short-term Creatine monohydrate (Cr) supplementation (0.03 g.kg.d -1 during 14 d) on muscle power output in elite youth soccer players. Using a two-group matched, double blind, placebo-controlled design, nineteen male soccer players (mean age = 17.0 ± 0.5 years) were randomly assigned to either Cr ( N  = 9) or placebo ( N  = 10) group. Before and after supplementation, participants performed a 30s Wingate Anaerobic Test (WAnT) to assess peak power output (PPO), mean power output (MPO), fatigue index (FI), and total work. There were significant increases in both PPO and MPO after the Cr supplementation period ( P  ≤ 0.05) but not the placebo period. There were also significant increases in total work, but not FI, after the Cr supplementation and placebo periods ( P  ≤ 0.05). Notably, there were differences in total work between the Cr and placebo groups after ( P  ≤ 0.05) but not before the 14 d supplementation period. There is substantial evidence to indicate that a low-dose, short-term oral Cr supplementation beneficially affected muscle power output in elite youth soccer players.

  15. Very short-term spatio-temporal wind power prediction using a censored Gaussian field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baxevani, Anastassia; Lenzi, Amanda

    2018-01-01

    Wind power is a renewable energy resource, that has relatively cheap installation costs and it is highly possible that will become the main energy resource in the near future. Wind power needs to be integrated efficiently into electricity grids, and to optimize the power dispatch, techniques...

  16. A short-term spatio-temporal approach for Photovoltaic power forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tascikaraoglu, A.; Sanandaji, B.M.; Chicco, G.; Cocina, V.; Spertino, F.; Erdinc, Ozan; Paterakis, N.G.; Catalão, J.P.S.

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a Photovoltaic (PV) power conversion model and a forecasting approach which uses spatial dependency of variables along with their temporal information. The power produced by a PV plant is forecasted by a PV conversion model using the predictions of three weather variables,

  17. Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

    2016-09-01

    We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

  18. Short-term high intensity plyometric training program improves strength, power and agility in male soccer players.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Váczi, Márk; Tollár, József; Meszler, Balázs; Juhász, Ivett; Karsai, István

    2013-03-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of a short-term in-season plyometric training program on power, agility and knee extensor strength. Male soccer players from a third league team were assigned into an experimental and a control group. The experimental group, beside its regular soccer training sessions, performed a periodized plyometric training program for six weeks. The program included two training sessions per week, and maximal intensity unilateral and bilateral plyometric exercises (total of 40 - 100 foot contacts/session) were executed. Controls participated only in the same soccer training routine, and did not perform plyometrics. Depth vertical jump height, agility (Illinois Agility Test, T Agility Test) and maximal voluntary isometric torque in knee extensors using Multicont II dynamometer were evaluated before and after the experiment. In the experimental group small but significant improvements were found in both agility tests, while depth jump height and isometric torque increments were greater. The control group did not improve in any of the measures. Results of the study indicate that plyometric training consisting of high impact unilateral and bilateral exercises induced remarkable improvements in lower extremity power and maximal knee extensor strength, and smaller improvements in soccer-specific agility. Therefore, it is concluded that short-term plyometric training should be incorporated in the in-season preparation of lower level players to improve specific performance in soccer.

  19. Short-Term High Intensity Plyometric Training Program Improves Strength, Power and Agility in Male Soccer Players

    Science.gov (United States)

    Váczi, Márk; Tollár, József; Meszler, Balázs; Juhász, Ivett; Karsai, István

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the effects of a short-term in-season plyometric training program on power, agility and knee extensor strength. Male soccer players from a third league team were assigned into an experimental and a control group. The experimental group, beside its regular soccer training sessions, performed a periodized plyometric training program for six weeks. The program included two training sessions per week, and maximal intensity unilateral and bilateral plyometric exercises (total of 40 – 100 foot contacts/session) were executed. Controls participated only in the same soccer training routine, and did not perform plyometrics. Depth vertical jump height, agility (Illinois Agility Test, T Agility Test) and maximal voluntary isometric torque in knee extensors using Multicont II dynamometer were evaluated before and after the experiment. In the experimental group small but significant improvements were found in both agility tests, while depth jump height and isometric torque increments were greater. The control group did not improve in any of the measures. Results of the study indicate that plyometric training consisting of high impact unilateral and bilateral exercises induced remarkable improvements in lower extremity power and maximal knee extensor strength, and smaller improvements in soccer-specific agility. Therefore, it is concluded that short-term plyometric training should be incorporated in the in-season preparation of lower level players to improve specific performance in soccer. PMID:23717351

  20. Short-term strategies for Dutch wind power producers to reduce imbalance costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaves-Ávila, José Pablo; Hakvoort, Rudi A.; Ramos, Andrés

    2013-01-01

    The paper assesses bidding strategies for a wind power producer in the Netherlands. To this end, a three-stage stochastic optimization framework is used, maximizing wind power producer's profit using the day-ahead and cross-border intraday market, taking into account available interconnection capacity. Results show that the wind power producer can increase its profits by trading on the intraday market and – under certain imbalance prices – by intentionally creating imbalances. It has been considered uncertainties about prices, power forecast and interconnection capacity at the day-ahead and intraday timeframes. - Highlights: ► A cross-border bidding strategy model for wind power producers has been developed. ► The model was applied to a real case study of a Dutch offshore wind power producer. ► Under certain imbalance prices, it is not profitable to deliver all possible power. ► Intraday markets give the possibility to reduce imbalance costs. ► Integration of intraday markets will increase liquidity.

  1. Short-Term Wind Electric Power Forecasting Using a Novel Multi-Stage Intelligent Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haoran Zhao

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available As the most efficient renewable energy source for generating electricity in a modern electricity network, wind power has the potential to realize sustainable energy supply. However, owing to its random and intermittent instincts, a high permeability of wind power into a power network demands accurate and effective wind energy prediction models. This study proposes a multi-stage intelligent algorithm for wind electric power prediction, which combines the Beveridge–Nelson (B-N decomposition approach, the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM, and a newly proposed intelligent optimization approach called the Grasshopper Optimization Algorithm (GOA. For data preprocessing, the B-N decomposition approach was employed to disintegrate the hourly wind electric power data into a deterministic trend, a cyclic term, and a random component. Then, the LSSVM optimized by the GOA (denoted GOA-LSSVM was applied to forecast the future 168 h of the deterministic trend, the cyclic term, and the stochastic component, respectively. Finally, the future hourly wind electric power values can be obtained by multiplying the forecasted values of these three trends. Through comparing the forecasting performance of this proposed method with the LSSVM, the LSSVM optimized by the Fruit-fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA-LSSVM, and the LSSVM optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO-LSSVM, it is verified that the established multi-stage approach is superior to other models and can increase the precision of wind electric power prediction effectively.

  2. An Optimized Prediction Intervals Approach for Short Term PV Power Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Ni

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available High quality photovoltaic (PV power prediction intervals (PIs are essential to power system operation and planning. To improve the reliability and sharpness of PIs, in this paper, a new method is proposed, which involves the model uncertainties and noise uncertainties, and PIs are constructed with a two-step formulation. In the first step, the variance of model uncertainties is obtained by using extreme learning machine to make deterministic forecasts of PV power. In the second stage, innovative PI-based cost function is developed to optimize the parameters of ELM and noise uncertainties are quantization in terms of variance. The performance of the proposed approach is examined by using the PV power and meteorological data measured from 1kW rooftop DC micro-grid system. The validity of the proposed method is verified by comparing the experimental analysis with other benchmarking methods, and the results exhibit a superior performance.

  3. Short-term Wind Forecasting to Support Virtual Power Player Operation

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos, Sérgio; Soares, João; Pinto, Tiago; Vale, Zita

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a wind speed forecasting model that contributes to the development and implementation of adequate methodologies for Energy Resource Man-agement in a distribution power network, with intensive use of wind based power generation. The proposed fore-casting methodology aims to support the operation in the scope of the intraday resources scheduling model, name-ly with a time horizon of 10 minutes. A case study using a real database from the meteoro-logical station installed ...

  4. Short-term load and wind power forecasting using neural network-based prediction intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2014-02-01

    Electrical power systems are evolving from today's centralized bulk systems to more decentralized systems. Penetrations of renewable energies, such as wind and solar power, significantly increase the level of uncertainty in power systems. Accurate load forecasting becomes more complex, yet more important for management of power systems. Traditional methods for generating point forecasts of load demands cannot properly handle uncertainties in system operations. To quantify potential uncertainties associated with forecasts, this paper implements a neural network (NN)-based method for the construction of prediction intervals (PIs). A newly introduced method, called lower upper bound estimation (LUBE), is applied and extended to develop PIs using NN models. A new problem formulation is proposed, which translates the primary multiobjective problem into a constrained single-objective problem. Compared with the cost function, this new formulation is closer to the primary problem and has fewer parameters. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) integrated with the mutation operator is used to solve the problem. Electrical demands from Singapore and New South Wales (Australia), as well as wind power generation from Capital Wind Farm, are used to validate the PSO-based LUBE method. Comparative results show that the proposed method can construct higher quality PIs for load and wind power generation forecasts in a short time.

  5. ACE DD genotype is unfavorable to Korean short-term muscle power athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, C-H; Cho, J-Y; Jeon, J Y; Koh, Y G; Kim, Y-M; Kim, H-J; Park, M; Um, H-S; Kim, C

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that the ACE DD genotype is unfavorably associated with the ultimate power-oriented performance. To test the hypothesis we recruited a total of 848 subjects including 55 international level power-oriented athletes (High-performance), 100 national level power-oriented athletes (Mid-performance) and 693 healthy controls (Control) in Korea. Then the distributions of ACE polymorphism throughout these groups were analyzed. As a result, there was a gradual decrease of frequencies of the DD genotype with advancing levels of performance (Control vs. Mid-performance vs. High-performance=17.2% vs. 10.0% vs. 5.5%, p=0.002). Also, the frequencies of D allele decreased gradually with advancing levels of performance (Control vs. Mid-performance vs. High-performance=42.6% vs. 35.0% vs. 30.9%, pDD genotype and the D allele. This finding gave 3.83 times lower probability of success in power-oriented sports for individuals with the DD genotype than those with the II+ ID genotype. In conclusion, these results indicate that Korean power-oriented athletes with a lower frequency of the DD genotype had a lower probability of success in power-oriented sports. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart, New York.

  6. Comparing the Effectiveness of a Short-Term Vertical Jump vs. Weightlifting Program on Athletic Power Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teo, Shaun Y M; Newton, Michael J; Newton, Robert U; Dempsey, Alasdair R; Fairchild, Timothy J

    2016-10-01

    Teo, SYM, Newton, MJ, Newton, RU, Dempsey, AR, and Fairchild, TJ. Comparing the effectiveness of a short-term vertical jump vs. weightlifting program on athletic power development. J Strength Cond Res 30(10): 2741-2748, 2016-Efficient training of neuromuscular power and the translation of this power to sport-specific tasks is a key objective in the preparation of athletes involved in team-based sports. The purpose of this study was to compare changes in center of mass (COM) neuromuscular power and performance of sport-specific tasks after short-term (6-week) training adopting either Olympic-style weightlifting (WL) exercises or vertical jump (VJ) exercises. Twenty-six recreationally active men (18-30 years; height: 178.7 ± 8.3 cm; mass: 78.6 ± 12.2 kg) were randomly allocated to either a WL or VJ training group and performance during the countermovement jump (CMJ), squat jump (SJ), depth jump (DJ), 20-m sprint, and the 5-0-5 agility test-assessed pre and posttraining. Despite the WL group demonstrating larger increases in peak power output during the CMJ (WL group: 10% increase, d = 0.701; VJ group: 5.78% increase, d = 0.328) and SJ (WL group: 12.73% increase, d = 0.854; VJ group: 7.27% increase, d = 0.382), no significant between-group differences were observed in any outcome measure studied. There was a significant main effect of time observed for the 3 VJs (CMJ, SJ, and DJ), 0- to 5-m and 0- to 20-m sprint times, and the 5-0-5 agility test time, which were all shown to improve after the training (all main effects of time p sports, even in athletes with limited preseason training periods.

  7. An analog ensemble for short-term probabilistic solar power forecast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alessandrini, S.; Delle Monache, L.; Sperati, S.; Cervone, G.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A novel method for solar power probabilistic forecasting is proposed. • The forecast accuracy does not depend on the nominal power. • The impact of climatology on forecast accuracy is evaluated. - Abstract: The energy produced by photovoltaic farms has a variable nature depending on astronomical and meteorological factors. The former are the solar elevation and the solar azimuth, which are easily predictable without any uncertainty. The amount of liquid water met by the solar radiation within the troposphere is the main meteorological factor influencing the solar power production, as a fraction of short wave solar radiation is reflected by the water particles and cannot reach the earth surface. The total cloud cover is a meteorological variable often used to indicate the presence of liquid water in the troposphere and has a limited predictability, which is also reflected on the global horizontal irradiance and, as a consequence, on solar photovoltaic power prediction. This lack of predictability makes the solar energy integration into the grid challenging. A cost-effective utilization of solar energy over a grid strongly depends on the accuracy and reliability of the power forecasts available to the Transmission System Operators (TSOs). Furthermore, several countries have in place legislation requiring solar power producers to pay penalties proportional to the errors of day-ahead energy forecasts, which makes the accuracy of such predictions a determining factor for producers to reduce their economic losses. Probabilistic predictions can provide accurate deterministic forecasts along with a quantification of their uncertainty, as well as a reliable estimate of the probability to overcome a certain production threshold. In this paper we propose the application of an analog ensemble (AnEn) method to generate probabilistic solar power forecasts (SPF). The AnEn is based on an historical set of deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP) model

  8. Short-term power sources for tokamaks and other physical experiments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Zajac, Jaromír; Žáček, František; Brettschneider, Zbyněk; Lejsek, V.

    2007-01-01

    Roč. 82, č. 4 (2007), s. 369-379 ISSN 0920-3796 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20430508 Keywords : Tokamak * Impulse power sources * Energy accumulation Subject RIV: JA - Electronics ; Optoelectronics, Electrical Engineering Impact factor: 1.058, year: 2007 http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09203796

  9. A Novel Short-Term Maintenance Strategy for Power Transmission and Transformation Equipment Based on Risk-Cost-Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hang Yang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Current studies on preventive condition-based maintenance of power transmission and transformation equipment mainly focus on mid-term or long-term maintenance, and cannot meet the requirements of short-term especially temporary maintenance. In order to solve the defects of the present preventive maintenance strategies, according to the engineering application and based on risk-cost analysis, a short-term maintenance strategy is proposed in this manuscript. For the equipment working in bad health condition, its active maintenance costs and operation risk costs are evaluated, respectively. Then the latest maintenance time is calculated in accordance with the principle that its operation risk costs are no higher than active maintenance costs. Utilizing the latest maintenance time, the best maintenance time is calculated by setting the maximum relative earnings of postponing maintenance as the target, which provides the operation staffs with comprehensive maintenance-decision support. In the end, different cases on the IEEE 24-bus system are simulated. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed strategy are demonstrated by the simulation results.

  10. Uncertainties and Wakes for Short-term Power Production of a Wind Farm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Göçmen, Tuhfe; Giebel, Gregor

    2018-01-01

    Similar to the conventional power plants, the wind farms are expected to contribute to the grid stability and communicate with the system operators regarding the potential power production on much shorter time scales than AEP or even 10-min. Additionally, increasing interest to aerodynamic control...... of wind farms, both in the research community and in the industry, necessitates the wake models to be more accurate and reliable at shorter intervals. In this study, we discuss the uncertainties attached to an engineering wake model derived for 1-sec turbine data, and investigate the methods for reducing...... the uncertainty of such an application via further training the model for the wind farm and the time period in question using the historical data....

  11. Entropy method combined with extreme learning machine method for the short-term photovoltaic power generation forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Pingzhou; Chen, Di; Hou, Yushuo

    2016-01-01

    As the world’s energy problem becomes more severe day by day, photovoltaic power generation has opened a new door for us with no doubt. It will provide an effective solution for this severe energy problem and meet human’s needs for energy if we can apply photovoltaic power generation in real life, Similar to wind power generation, photovoltaic power generation is uncertain. Therefore, the forecast of photovoltaic power generation is very crucial. In this paper, entropy method and extreme learning machine (ELM) method were combined to forecast a short-term photovoltaic power generation. First, entropy method is used to process initial data, train the network through the data after unification, and then forecast electricity generation. Finally, the data results obtained through the entropy method with ELM were compared with that generated through generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and radial basis function neural network (RBF) method. We found that entropy method combining with ELM method possesses higher accuracy and the calculation is faster.

  12. Short-term fluctuations in vegetation and phytoplankton during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate: a 640-kyr record from the Messel oil shale (Germany)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter

    2011-11-01

    The Palaeogene was the most recent greenhouse period on Earth. Especially for the Late Palaeocene and Early Eocene, several superimposed short-term hyperthermal events have been described, including extremes such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Major faunal and floral turnovers in the marine and terrestrial realms were recorded in association with these events. High-resolution palynological analysis of the early Middle Eocene maar lake sediments at Messel, near Darmstadt, Germany, provides an insight into the dynamics of a climax vegetation during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate in a time span without significant climatic excursions. Numerical techniques like detrended correspondence analysis and wavelet analysis have been applied to recognize cyclic fluctuations and long-term trends in the vegetation through a time interval of approximately 640 kyr. Based on the numerical zoning of the pollen diagram, three phases in the development of the vegetation may be distinguished. Throughout these phases, the climax vegetation did not change substantially in qualitative composition, but a trend towards noticeably less humid conditions probably in combination with a drop of the water level in the lake may be recognized. A shift in algal population from the freshwater dinoflagellate cyst Messelodinium thielepfeifferae to a dominance of Botryococcus in the uppermost part of the core is interpreted as a response to changes in acidity and nutrient availability within the lake. Time series analyses of pollen assemblages show that variations in the Milankovitch range of eccentricity, obliquity and precession can be distinguished. In addition, fluctuations in the sub-Milankovitch range are indicated. This demonstrates that floral changes during steady depositional conditions in the Middle Eocene of Messel were controlled by orbital forcing.

  13. Effects of Short-Term Jump Squat Training With and Without Chains on Strength and Power in Recreational Lifters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David C. Archer

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Background: The use of chains in resistance training is a way to accommodate the muscular strength curve. Short-term training and jump squats have been shown to increase back squat strength, but not in conjunction with each other or with chains. Jump squats have also been used to increase jump height and power. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of short-term jump squat training with and without chains on strength and power. Methods: Thirty-one resistance-trained men volunteered to participate (age = 23.87 ± 2.2 years, height=174.87 ± 6.94 cm, mass = 82.74 ± 14.95 kg and were randomly assigned to one of three groups [control (C = 10, no chains (NC =10, or chains (CH = 11]. Participants had their jump height (VJ and back squat strength (BS tested before and after a week of training. The NC and CH groups performed three training sessions consisting of five sets of three reps of jump squats at 30% 1RM with 30s rest between sets. The CH group had 20% of their load added by chains when standing erect. The C group did not train. Results: A 3 (group: CH, NC, C x 2 (time: pre, post mixed factor ANOVA revealed a significant (p = 0.006 interaction for back squat 1RM. Both the CH (pre 142.56 ± 20.40 kg; post 145.66 ± 19.59 kg and NC (pre 150.00 ± 15.23 kg; post 154.77 ± 15.09 kg groups significantly increased while the C (pre 157.27 ± 25.35 kg; post 156.36 ± 24.85 kg group showed no difference. There were no significant interactions (p =0.32 or main effects for VJ (C = pre 50.59 ± 9.39cm; post 51.29 ± 9.68cm; NC = pre 55.29 ± 5.23cm; post 57.39 ± 5.22cm; CH = pre 46.19 ± 5.02; post 47.45 ± 4.62. Conclusions: The CH group was able to increase strength while lifting less overall weight. Coaches may use short-term training with chains to yield a similar increase in back squat strength as without chains. Keywords: variable resistance, back squats, novel, vertical jump

  14. Ultra-Short-Term Wind-Power Forecasting Based on the Weighted Random Forest Optimized by the Niche Immune Lion Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongxiao Niu

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The continuous increase in energy consumption has made the potential of wind-power generation tremendous. However, the obvious intermittency and randomness of wind speed results in the fluctuation of the output power in a wind farm, seriously affecting the power quality. Therefore, the accurate prediction of wind power in advance can improve the ability of wind-power integration and enhance the reliability of the power system. In this paper, a model of wavelet decomposition (WD and weighted random forest (WRF optimized by the niche immune lion algorithm (NILA-WRF is presented for ultra-short-term wind power prediction. Firstly, the original serials of wind speed and power are decomposed into several sub-serials by WD because the original serials have no obvious day characteristics. Then, the model parameters are set and the model trained with the sub-serials of wind speed and wind power decomposed. Finally, the WD-NILA-WRF model is used to predict the wind power of the relative sub-serials and the result is reconstructed to obtain the final prediction result. The WD-NILA-WRF model combines the advantage of each single model, which uses WD for signal de-noising, and uses the niche immune lion algorithm (NILA to improve the model’s optimization efficiency. In this paper, two empirical analyses are carried out to prove the accuracy of the model, and the experimental results verify the proposed model’s validity and superiority compared with the back propagation neural network (BP neural network, support vector machine (SVM, RF and NILA-RF, indicating that the proposed method is superior in cases influenced by noise and unstable factors, and possesses an excellent generalization ability and robustness.

  15. Short-term prediction of windfarm power output - from theory to practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landberg, L.

    1998-01-01

    From the very complicated and evolved theories of boundary-layer meteorology encompassing the equations of turbulence and mean flow, a model has been derived to predict the power output from wind farms. For practical dispatching purposes the predictions must reach as far into the future as 36 hours. The model has been put into an operation frame-work where the predictions for a number of wind farms scattered all over Europe are available on-line on the World Wide Web. The system is very versatile and new wind farms can be included within a few days. The system is made up of predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute HIRLAM model which are refined using the WASP model from Risoe National Laboratory. The paper will describe this operation set-up, give examples of the performance of the model of wind farms in the UK, Denmark, Greece and the US. An analysis of the error for a one-year period will also be presented. Finally, possible improvements will be discussed. These include Kalman filtering and other statistical methods. (Author)

  16. A three-stage short-term electric power planning procedure for a generation company in a liberalized market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nabona, Narcis; Pages, Adela

    2007-01-01

    In liberalized electricity markets, generation companies bid their hourly generation in order to maximize their profit. The optimization of the generation bids over a short-term weekly period must take into account the action of the competing generation companies and the market-price formation rules and must be coordinated with long-term planning results. This paper presents a three stage optimization process with a data analysis and parameter calculation, a linearized unit commitment, and a nonlinear generation scheduling refinement. Although the procedure has been developed from the experience with the Spanish power market, with minor adaptations it is also applicable to any generation company participating in a competitive market system. (author)

  17. Comparative Study on KNN and SVM Based Weather Classification Models for Day Ahead Short Term Solar PV Power Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Wang

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV power forecasting is an essential tool for mitigating the negative effects caused by the uncertainty of PV output power in systems with high penetration levels of solar PV generation. Weather classification based modeling is an effective way to increase the accuracy of day-ahead short-term (DAST solar PV power forecasting because PV output power is strongly dependent on the specific weather conditions in a given time period. However, the accuracy of daily weather classification relies on both the applied classifiers and the training data. This paper aims to reveal how these two factors impact the classification performance and to delineate the relation between classification accuracy and sample dataset scale. Two commonly used classification methods, K-nearest neighbors (KNN and support vector machines (SVM are applied to classify the daily local weather types for DAST solar PV power forecasting using the operation data from a grid-connected PV plant in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, China. We assessed the performance of SVM and KNN approaches, and then investigated the influences of sample scale, the number of categories, and the data distribution in different categories on the daily weather classification results. The simulation results illustrate that SVM performs well with small sample scale, while KNN is more sensitive to the length of the training dataset and can achieve higher accuracy than SVM with sufficient samples.

  18. Short term hydroelectric power system scheduling with wind turbine generators using the multi-pass iteration particle swarm optimization approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, T.-Y.

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses multi-pass iteration particle swarm optimization (MIPSO) to solve short term hydroelectric generation scheduling of a power system with wind turbine generators. MIPSO is a new algorithm for solving nonlinear optimal scheduling problems. A new index called iteration best (IB) is incorporated into particle swarm optimization (PSO) to improve solution quality. The concept of multi-pass dynamic programming is applied to modify PSO further and improve computation efficiency. The feasible operational regions of the hydro units and pumped storage plants over the whole scheduling time range must be determined before applying MIPSO to the problem. Wind turbine power generation then shaves the power system load curves. Next, MIPSO calculates hydroelectric generation scheduling. It begins with a coarse time stage and searching space and refines the time interval between two time stages and the search spacing pass by pass (iteration). With the cooperation of agents called particles, the near optimal solution of the scheduling problem can be effectively reached. The effects of wind speed uncertainty were also considered in this paper. The feasibility of the new algorithm is demonstrated by a numerical example, and MIPSO solution quality and computation efficiency are compared to those of other algorithms

  19. Revisiting short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets with rising wind power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Yuanjing

    2015-01-01

    This paper revisits the short-term price and volatility dynamics in day-ahead electricity markets in consideration of an increasing share of wind power, using an example of the Nord Pool day-ahead market and the Danish wind generation. To do so, a GARCH process is applied, and market coupling and the counterbalance effect of hydropower in the Scandinavian countries are additionally accounted for. As results, we found that wind generation weakly dampens spot prices with an elasticity of 0.008 and also reduces price volatility with an elasticity of 0.02 in the Nordic day-ahead market. The results shed lights on the importance of market coupling and interactions between wind power and hydropower in the Nordic system through cross-border exchanges, which play an essential role in price stabilization. Additionally, an EGARCH specification confirms an asymmetric influence of the price innovations, whereby negative shocks produce larger volatility in the Nordic spot market. While considering heavy tails in error distributions can improve model fits significantly, the EGARCH model outperforms the GARCH model on forecast evaluations. (author)

  20. Prognostic power of biomarkers for short-term mortality in the elderly patients seen in Emergency Departments due to infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julián-Jiménez, Agustín; Yañez, María Cecilia; González-Del Castillo, Juan; Salido-Mota, Manuel; Mora-Ordoñez, Begoña; Arranz-Nieto, María Jesús; Chanovas-Borras, Manuel R; Llopis-Roca, Ferrán; Mòdol-Deltell, Josep María; Muñoz, Gema

    2017-12-27

    To analyse and compare 30-day mortality prognostic power of several biomarkers (C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, lactate, suPAR and pro-adremomedullin) in elderly patients seen in Emergency Departments (ED) due to infections. Secondly, if these could improve the prognostic accuracy of sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome and quick Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment [qSOFA]). A prospective, observational, multicentre and analytical study. Patients aged 75 years and older who were treated for infection in the ED of 8 participating hospitals were enrolled consecutively. An assessment was made of 25 independent variables (epidemiological, comorbidity, functional, clinical and analytical variables) that could influence short-term mortality (at 30 days). The study included 136 patients, 13 (9.5%) of whom died within 30 days of visiting the ED. MR-proADM is the biomarker with the best area under the curve ROC to predict 30-day mortality (0.864; 95% CI 0.775-0.997; P2.07nmol/l, sensitivity of 77% and specificity of 96%. The qSOFA score≥2 had an area under the curve ROC of 0.763 (95% CI 0.623-0.903; P=.002), sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 75%. The mixed model (MR-proADM plus qSOFA≥2) improved the area under the curve ROC to 0.878 (95% CI 0.749-1; P2.07nmol/l) increased the predictive power of qSOFA. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica. All rights reserved.

  1. Short-term spatio-temporal wind power forecast in robust look-ahead power system dispatch

    KAUST Repository

    Xie, Le

    2014-01-01

    We propose a novel statistical wind power forecast framework, which leverages the spatio-temporal correlation in wind speed and direction data among geographically dispersed wind farms. Critical assessment of the performance of spatio-temporal wind power forecast is performed using realistic wind farm data from West Texas. It is shown that spatio-temporal wind forecast models are numerically efficient approaches to improving forecast quality. By reducing uncertainties in near-term wind power forecasts, the overall cost benefits on system dispatch can be quantified. We integrate the improved forecast with an advanced robust look-ahead dispatch framework. This integrated forecast and economic dispatch framework is tested in a modified IEEE RTS 24-bus system. Numerical simulation suggests that the overall generation cost can be reduced by up to 6% using a robust look-ahead dispatch coupled with spatio-temporal wind forecast as compared with persistent wind forecast models. © 2013 IEEE.

  2. Short-Term Power Load Point Prediction Based on the Sharp Degree and Chaotic RBF Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongxiao Niu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to realize the predicting and positioning of short-term load inflection point, this paper made reference to related research in the field of computer image recognition. It got a load sharp degree sequence by the transformation of the original load sequence based on the algorithm of sharp degree. Then this paper designed a forecasting model based on the chaos theory and RBF neural network. It predicted the load sharp degree sequence based on the forecasting model to realize the positioning of short-term load inflection point. Finally, in the empirical example analysis, this paper predicted the daily load point of a region using the actual load data of the certain region to verify the effectiveness and applicability of this method. Prediction results showed that most of the test sample load points could be accurately predicted.

  3. The Spectrum of Wind Power Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandi, Mahesh

    2016-11-01

    Wind is a variable energy source whose fluctuations threaten electrical grid stability and complicate dynamical load balancing. The power generated by a wind turbine fluctuates due to the variable wind speed that blows past the turbine. Indeed, the spectrum of wind power fluctuations is widely believed to reflect the Kolmogorov spectrum; both vary with frequency f as f - 5 / 3. This variability decreases when aggregate power fluctuations from geographically distributed wind farms are averaged at the grid via a mechanism known as geographic smoothing. Neither the f - 5 / 3 wind power fluctuation spectrum nor the mechanism of geographic smoothing are understood. In this work, we explain the wind power fluctuation spectrum from the turbine through grid scales. The f - 5 / 3 wind power fluctuation spectrum results from the largest length scales of atmospheric turbulence of order 200 km influencing the small scales where individual turbines operate. This long-range influence spatially couples geographically distributed wind farms and synchronizes farm outputs over a range of frequencies and decreases with increasing inter-farm distance. Consequently, aggregate grid-scale power fluctuations remain correlated, and are smoothed until they reach a limiting f - 7 / 3 spectrum. This work was funded by the Collective Interactions Unit, OIST Graduate University, Japan.

  4. Gradient decent based multi-objective cultural differential evolution for short-term hydrothermal optimal scheduling of economic emission with integrating wind power and photovoltaic power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Huifeng; Yue, Dong; Xie, Xiangpeng; Dou, Chunxia; Sun, Feng

    2017-01-01

    With the integration of wind power and photovoltaic power, optimal operation of hydrothermal power system becomes great challenge due to its non-convex, stochastic and complex-coupled constrained characteristics. This paper extends short-term hydrothermal system optimal model into short-term hydrothermal optimal scheduling of economic emission while considering integrated intermittent energy resources (SHOSEE-IIER). For properly solving SHOSEE-IIER problem, a gradient decent based multi-objective cultural differential evolution (GD-MOCDE) is proposed to improve the optimal efficiency of SHOSEE-IIER combined with three designed knowledge structures, which mainly enhances search ability of differential evolution in the shortest way. With considering those complex-coupled and stochastic constraints, a heuristic constraint-handling measurement is utilized to tackle with them both in coarse and fine tuning way, and probability constraint-handling procedures are taken to properly handle those stochastic constraints combined with their probability density functions. Ultimately, those approaches are implemented on five test systems, which testify the optimization efficiency of proposed GD-MOCDE and constraint-handling efficiency for system load balance, water balance and stochastic constraint-handling measurements, those obtained results reveal that the proposed GD-MOCDE can properly solve the SHOSEE-IIER problem combined with those constraint-handling approaches. - Highlights: • Gradient decent method is proposed to improve mutation operator. • Hydrothermal system is extended to hybrid energy system. • The uncertainty constraint is converted into deterministic constraint. • The results show the viability and efficiency of proposed algorithm.

  5. The Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on Sperm Whale Algorithm and Wavelet Least Square Support Vector Machine with DWT-IR for Feature Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin-peng Liu

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Short-term power load forecasting is an important basis for the operation of integrated energy system, and the accuracy of load forecasting directly affects the economy of system operation. To improve the forecasting accuracy, this paper proposes a load forecasting system based on wavelet least square support vector machine and sperm whale algorithm. Firstly, the methods of discrete wavelet transform and inconsistency rate model (DWT-IR are used to select the optimal features, which aims to reduce the redundancy of input vectors. Secondly, the kernel function of least square support vector machine LSSVM is replaced by wavelet kernel function for improving the nonlinear mapping ability of LSSVM. Lastly, the parameters of W-LSSVM are optimized by sperm whale algorithm, and the short-term load forecasting method of W-LSSVM-SWA is established. Additionally, the example verification results show that the proposed model outperforms other alternative methods and has a strong effectiveness and feasibility in short-term power load forecasting.

  6. Does stress affect the joints? Daily stressors, stress vulnerability, immune and HPA axis activity, and short-term disease and symptom fluctuations in rheumatoid arthritis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Evers, A.W.M.; Verhoeven, E.W.M.; Middendorp, H. van; Sweep, F.C.; Kraaimaat, F.W.; Donders, A.R.T.; Eijsbouts, A.E.; Laarhoven, A.I.M. van; Brouwer, S.J.M. de; Wirken, L.; Radstake, T.R.D.J.; Riel, P.L.C.M. van

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Both stressors and stress vulnerability factors together with immune and hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis activity components have been considered to contribute to disease fluctuations of chronic inflammatory diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The aim of the present

  7. The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

    2017-08-01

    The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

  8. Electricity generation and microbial community in response to short-term changes in stack connection of self-stacked submersible microbial fuel cell powered by glycerol

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Nannan; Angelidaki, Irini; Zhang, Yifeng

    2017-01-01

    community. In this study, a self-stacked submersible microbial fuel cell (SSMFC) powered by glycerol was tested to elucidate this important issue. In series connection, the maximum voltage output reached to 1.15 V, while maximum current density was 5.73 mA in parallel. In both connections, the maximum power......Stack connection (i.e., in series or parallel) of microbial fuel cell (MFC) is an efficient way to boost the power output for practical application. However, there is little information available on short-term changes in stack connection and its effect on the electricity generation and microbial...... density increased with the initial glycerol concentration. However, the glycerol degradation was even faster in parallel connection. When the SSMFC was shifted from series to parallel connection, the reactor reached to a stable power output without any lag phase. Meanwhile, the anodic microbial community...

  9. The “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies” Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Sperati

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A benchmarking exercise was organized within the framework of the European Action Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies (“WIRE” with the purpose of evaluating the performance of state of the art models for short-term renewable energy forecasting. The exercise consisted in forecasting the power output of two wind farms and two photovoltaic power plants, in order to compare the merits of forecasts based on different modeling approaches and input data. It was thus possible to obtain a better knowledge of the state of the art in both wind and solar power forecasting, with an overview and comparison of the principal and the novel approaches that are used today in the field, and to assess the evolution of forecast performance with respect to previous benchmarking exercises. The outcome of this exercise consisted then in proposing new challenges in the renewable power forecasting field and identifying the main areas for improving accuracy in the future.

  10. Short-term memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toulouse, G.

    This is a rather bold attempt to bridge the gap between neuron structure and psychological data. We try to answer the question: Is there a relation between the neuronal connectivity in the human cortex (around 5,000) and the short-term memory capacity (7±2)? Our starting point is the Hopfield model (Hopfield 1982), presented in this volume by D.J. Amit.

  11. A methodology based on dynamic artificial neural network for short-term forecasting of the power output of a PV generator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Almonacid, F.; Pérez-Higueras, P.J.; Fernández, Eduardo F.; Hontoria, L.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The output of the majority of renewables energies depends on the variability of the weather conditions. • The short-term forecast is going to be essential for effectively integrating solar energy sources. • A new method based on artificial neural network to predict the power output of a PV generator one hour ahead is proposed. • This new method is based on dynamic artificial neural network to predict global solar irradiance and the air temperature. • The methodology developed can be used to estimate the power output of a PV generator with a satisfactory margin of error. - Abstract: One of the problems of some renewables energies is that the output of these kinds of systems is non-dispatchable depending on variability of weather conditions that cannot be predicted and controlled. From this point of view, the short-term forecast is going to be essential for effectively integrating solar energy sources, being a very useful tool for the reliability and stability of the grid ensuring that an adequate supply is present. In this paper a new methodology for forecasting the output of a PV generator one hour ahead based on dynamic artificial neural network is presented. The results of this study show that the proposed methodology could be used to forecast the power output of PV systems one hour ahead with an acceptable degree of accuracy

  12. Benefits of spatiotemporal modeling for short-term wind power forecasting at both individual and aggregated levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lenzi, Amanda; Steinsland, Ingelin; Pinson, Pierre

    2018-01-01

    The share of wind energy in total installed power capacity has grown rapidly in recent years. Producing accurate and reliable forecasts of wind power production, together with a quantification of the uncertainty, is essential to optimally integrate wind energy into power systems. We build...... spatiotemporal models for wind power generation and obtain full probabilistic forecasts from 15 min to 5 h ahead. Detailed analyses of forecast performances on individual wind farms and aggregated wind power are provided. The predictions from our models are evaluated on a data set from wind farms in western...... Denmark using a sliding window approach, for which estimation is performed using only the last available measurements. The case study shows that it is important to have a spatiotemporal model instead of a temporal one to achieve calibrated aggregated forecasts. Furthermore, spatiotemporal models have...

  13. Theory Study and Application of the BP-ANN Method for Power Grid Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xia Hua; Gang Zhang; Jiawei Yang; Zhengyuan Li

    2015-01-01

    Aiming at the low accuracy problem of power system short⁃term load forecasting by traditional methods, a back⁃propagation artifi⁃cial neural network (BP⁃ANN) based method for short⁃term load forecasting is presented in this paper. The forecast points are re⁃lated to prophase adjacent data as well as the periodical long⁃term historical load data. Then the short⁃term load forecasting model of Shanxi Power Grid (China) based on BP⁃ANN method and correlation analysis is established. The simulation model matches well with practical power system load, indicating the BP⁃ANN method is simple and with higher precision and practicality.

  14. Short-term Forecast of Automatic Frequency Restoration Reserve from a Renewable Energy Based Virtual Power Plant

    OpenAIRE

    Camal , Simon; Michiorri , Andrea; Kariniotakis , Georges; Liebelt , Andreas

    2017-01-01

    International audience; This paper presents the initial findings on a new forecast approach for ancillary services delivered by aggregated renewable power plants. The increasing penetration of distributed variable generators challenges grid reliability. Wind and photovoltaic power plants are technically able to provide ancillary services, but their stochastic behavior currently impedes their integration into reserve mechanisms. A methodology is developed to forecast the flexibility that a win...

  15. Long-term power generation expansion planning with short-term demand response: Model, algorithms, implementation, and electricity policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lohmann, Timo

    Electric sector models are powerful tools that guide policy makers and stakeholders. Long-term power generation expansion planning models are a prominent example and determine a capacity expansion for an existing power system over a long planning horizon. With the changes in the power industry away from monopolies and regulation, the focus of these models has shifted to competing electric companies maximizing their profit in a deregulated electricity market. In recent years, consumers have started to participate in demand response programs, actively influencing electricity load and price in the power system. We introduce a model that features investment and retirement decisions over a long planning horizon of more than 20 years, as well as an hourly representation of day-ahead electricity markets in which sellers of electricity face buyers. This combination makes our model both unique and challenging to solve. Decomposition algorithms, and especially Benders decomposition, can exploit the model structure. We present a novel method that can be seen as an alternative to generalized Benders decomposition and relies on dynamic linear overestimation. We prove its finite convergence and present computational results, demonstrating its superiority over traditional approaches. In certain special cases of our model, all necessary solution values in the decomposition algorithms can be directly calculated and solving mathematical programming problems becomes entirely obsolete. This leads to highly efficient algorithms that drastically outperform their programming problem-based counterparts. Furthermore, we discuss the implementation of all tailored algorithms and the challenges from a modeling software developer's standpoint, providing an insider's look into the modeling language GAMS. Finally, we apply our model to the Texas power system and design two electricity policies motivated by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency's recently proposed CO2 emissions targets for the

  16. Increased alpha-band power during the retention of shapes and shape-location associations in visual short-term memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey S. Johnson

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Studies exploring the role of neural oscillations in cognition have revealed sustained increases in alpha-band (~8-14 Hz power during the delay period of delayed-recognition short-term memory tasks. These increases have been proposed to reflect the inhibition, for example, of cortical areas representing task-irrelevant information, or of potentially interfering representations from previous trials. Another possibility, however, is that elevated delay-period alpha-band power reflects the selection and maintenance of information, rather than, or in addition to, the inhibition of task-irrelevant information. In the present study, we explored these possibilities using a delayed-recognition paradigm in which the presence and task-relevance of shape information was systematically manipulated across trial blocks and EEG was used to measure alpha-band power. In the first trial block, participants remembered locations marked by identical black circles. The second block featured the same instructions, but locations were marked by unique shapes. The third block featured the same stimulus presentation as the second, but with pretrial instructions indicating, on a trial-by-trial basis, whether memory for shape or location was required, the other dimension being irrelevant. In the final block, participants remembered the unique pairing of shape and location for each stimulus. Results revealed minimal delay-period alpha-band power in each of the location-memory conditions, whether locations were marked with identical circles or with unique task-irrelevant shapes. In contrast, alpha-band power increases were observed in both the shape-memory condition, in which location was task irrelevant, and in the critical final condition, in which both shape and location were task relevant. These results provide support for the proposal that alpha-band oscillations reflect the retention of shape information and/or shape-location associations in short-term memory.

  17. Power Spectral Analysis of Short-Term Heart Rate Variability in Healthy and Arrhythmia Subjects by the Adaptive Continuous Morlet Wavelet Transform

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ram Sewak SINGH

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Power spectral analysis of short-term heart rate variability (HRV can provide instant valuable information to understand the functioning of autonomic control over the cardiovascular system. In this study, an adaptive continuous Morlet wavelet transform (ACMWT method has been used to describe the time-frequency characteristics of the HRV using band power spectra and the median value of interquartile range. Adaptation of the method was based on the measurement of maximum energy concentration. The ACMWT has been validated on synthetic signals (i.e. stationary, non-stationary as slow varying and fast changing frequency with time modeled as closest to dynamic changes in HRV signals. This method has been also tested in the presence of additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN to show its robustness towards the noise. From the results of testing on synthetic signals, the ACMWT was found to be an enhanced energy concentration estimator for assessment of power spectral of short-term HRV time series compared to adaptive Stockwell transform (AST, adaptive modified Stockwell transform (AMST, standard continuous Morlet wavelet transform (CMWT and Stockwell transform (ST estimators at statistical significance level of 5%. Further, the ACMWT was applied to real HRV data from Fantasia and MIT-BIH databases, grouped as healthy young group (HYG, healthy elderly group (HEG, arrhythmia controlled medication group (ARCMG, and supraventricular tachycardia group (SVTG subjects. The global results demonstrate that spectral indices of low frequency power (LFp and high frequency power (HFp of HRV were decreased in HEG compared to HYG subjects (p<0.0001. While LFp and HFp indices were increased in ARCMG compared to HEG (p<0.00001. The LFp and HFp components of HRV obtained from SVTG were reduced compared to other group subjects (p<0.00001.

  18. Influence of local wind speed and direction on wind power dynamics – Application to offshore very short-term forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gallego, Cristobal; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some of these e......Wind power time series usually show complex dynamics mainly due to non-linearities related to the wind physics and the power transformation process in wind farms. This article provides an approach to the incorporation of observed local variables (wind speed and direction) to model some...... on one-step ahead forecasting and a time series resolution of 10 min. It has been found that the local wind direction contributes to model some features of the prevailing winds, such as the impact of the wind direction on the wind variability, whereas the non-linearities related to the power...... transformation process can be introduced by considering the local wind speed. In both cases, conditional parametric models showed a better performance than the one achieved by the regime-switching strategy. The results attained reinforce the idea that each explanatory variable allows the modelling of different...

  19. Decarbonization scenarios for the EU and MENA power system: Considering spatial distribution and short term dynamics of renewable generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haller, Markus; Ludig, Sylvie; Bauer, Nico

    2012-01-01

    We use the multi-scale power system model LIMES-EU + to explore coordinated long term expansion pathways for Renewable Energy (RE) generation, long distance transmission and storage capacities for the power sector of the Europe and Middle East/North Africa (MENA) regions that lead to a low emission power system. We show that ambitious emission reduction targets can be achieved at moderate costs by a nearly complete switch to RE sources until 2050, if transmission and storage capacities are expanded adequately. Limiting transmission capacities to current levels leads to higher storage requirements, higher curtailments, and to an increase in temporal and spatial electricity price variations. Results show an escalation of electricity prices if emission reductions exceed a critical value. Adequate expansion of transmission and storage capacities shift this threshold from 70% to 90% emission reductions in 2050 relative to 2010. - Highlights: ► We present an EU+MENA power system model that considers long term investments and integration of renewables. ► For low emission targets, renewable integration issues lead to escalating electricity prices. ► The feasibility frontier can be pushed by adequate transmission and storage investments. ► The transformation from wind/fossil to wind/solar regime changes integration requirements. ► Low emission targets can be reached without significant interconnections between EU and MENA regions.

  20. The state-of-the-art in short-term prediction of wind power. A literature overview

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebel, G.; Draxl, C. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (Denmark)); Brownsword, R. (Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), Oxford (United Kingdom)); Kariniotakis, G. (ARMINES, Paris (France)); Denhard, M. (ECMWF, Reading (United Kingdom))

    2011-01-15

    This Deliverable of ANEMOS.plus (Advanced Tools for the Management of Electricity Grids with Large-Scale Wind Generation) and SafeWind projects presents the state of the art in wind power forecasting. More than 380 references of journal and conference papers have been reviewed. (LN)

  1. Deterministic and probabilistic interval prediction for short-term wind power generation based on variational mode decomposition and machine learning methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Yachao; Liu, Kaipei; Qin, Liang; An, Xueli

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Variational mode decomposition is adopted to process original wind power series. • A novel combined model based on machine learning methods is established. • An improved differential evolution algorithm is proposed for weight adjustment. • Probabilistic interval prediction is performed by quantile regression averaging. - Abstract: Due to the increasingly significant energy crisis nowadays, the exploitation and utilization of new clean energy gains more and more attention. As an important category of renewable energy, wind power generation has become the most rapidly growing renewable energy in China. However, the intermittency and volatility of wind power has restricted the large-scale integration of wind turbines into power systems. High-precision wind power forecasting is an effective measure to alleviate the negative influence of wind power generation on the power systems. In this paper, a novel combined model is proposed to improve the prediction performance for the short-term wind power forecasting. Variational mode decomposition is firstly adopted to handle the instability of the raw wind power series, and the subseries can be reconstructed by measuring sample entropy of the decomposed modes. Then the base models can be established for each subseries respectively. On this basis, the combined model is developed based on the optimal virtual prediction scheme, the weight matrix of which is dynamically adjusted by a self-adaptive multi-strategy differential evolution algorithm. Besides, a probabilistic interval prediction model based on quantile regression averaging and variational mode decomposition-based hybrid models is presented to quantify the potential risks of the wind power series. The simulation results indicate that: (1) the normalized mean absolute errors of the proposed combined model from one-step to three-step forecasting are 4.34%, 6.49% and 7.76%, respectively, which are much lower than those of the base models and the hybrid

  2. The impact of European balancing rules on wind power economics and on short-term bidding strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaves-Ávila, J.P.; Hakvoort, R.A.; Ramos, A.

    2014-01-01

    Wind power represents a significant percentage of the European generation mix and this will increase to fulfill the renewable energy targets. Different balancing rules are applied to wind power among the countries; for instance, to what extent wind power producers (WPPs) are responsible for the energy imbalances and how those imbalances are penalized. This paper discusses those different rules and evaluates their effects on WPP bidding strategies. To do so, a quantitative analysis is presented for an offshore wind farm, considering the differences in the balancing rules and prices of Belgium, Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. The quantitative approach consists of a stochastic optimization model that maximizes the profits of a WPP by trading in different markets (day-ahead and intraday) and computes the final energy delivered. The model considers uncertainties of most important parameters such as wind energy forecasts and prices at different time frames. The results show that the imbalance pricing design and the allocation of balance responsibility significantly affect WPP’ revenues. Additionally, WPPs deviate differently from the expected energy depending on the balancing rules, which can impact the system. Furthermore, these balancing rules should be considered with other market regulations, such as the design of support schemes. - Highlights: • European countries apply different imbalance pricing rules. • The allocation of balance responsibility to wind power varies between the countries. • A stochastic optimization model is used to compare the effect of balancing rules. • Balancing rules have an important impact on wind generators bidding strategies. • Balancing rules have also an effect on the system imbalances

  3. Study of s-component of the solar radio emission and short-term quantitative prediction of powerful solar flares

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guseynov, Sh; Gakhramanov, I.G.

    2012-01-01

    Full text : All living and non-living things on Earth is dependent on the processes occurring in the Sun. Therefore the study of the Sun with the aim to predict powerful solar flares is of great scientific and practical importance. It is known that the main drawback of modern forecasting of solar flares and the low reliability of forecasts is the lack of use of the physical concepts of the mechanism of flares

  4. Short-term pressure and temperature MSLB response analyses for large dry containment of the Maanshan nuclear power station

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dai, Liang-Che, E-mail: lcdai@iner.gov.tw; Chen, Yen-Shu; Yuann, Yng-Ruey

    2014-12-15

    Highlights: • The GOTHIC code is used for the PWR dry containment pressure and temperature analysis. • Boundary conditions are hot standby and 102% power main steam line break accidents. • Containment pressure and temperature responses of GOTHIC are similar with FSAR. • The capability of the developed model to perform licensing calculation is assessed. - Abstract: Units 1 and 2 of the Maanshan nuclear power station are the typical Westinghouse three-loop PWR (pressurized water reactor) with large dry containments. In this study, the containment analysis program GOTHIC is adopted for the dry containment pressure and temperature analysis. Free air space and sump of the PWR dry containment are individually modeled as control volumes. The containment spray system and fan cooler unit are also considered in the GOTHIC model. The blowdown mass and energy data of the main steam line break (hot standby condition and various reactor thermal power levels) are tabulated in the Maanshan Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) 6.2 which could be used as the boundary conditions for the containment model. The calculated containment pressure and temperature behaviors of the selected cases are in good agreement with the FSAR results. In this study, hot standby and 102% reactor thermal power main steam line break accidents are selected. The calculated peak containment pressure is 323.50 kPag (46.92 psig) for hot standby MSLB, which is a little higher than the FSAR value of 311.92 kPag (45.24 psig). But it is still below the design value of 413.69 kPag (60 psig). The calculated peak vapor temperature inside the containment is 187.0 °C (368.59 F) for 102% reactor thermal power MSLB, which is lower than the FSAR result of 194.42 °C (381.95 F). The effects of the containment spray system and fan cooler units could be clearly observed in the GOTHIC analysis. The calculated containment pressure and temperature behaviors of the selected cases are in good agreement with the FSAR

  5. Short-term pressure and temperature MSLB response analyses for large dry containment of the Maanshan nuclear power station

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai, Liang-Che; Chen, Yen-Shu; Yuann, Yng-Ruey

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The GOTHIC code is used for the PWR dry containment pressure and temperature analysis. • Boundary conditions are hot standby and 102% power main steam line break accidents. • Containment pressure and temperature responses of GOTHIC are similar with FSAR. • The capability of the developed model to perform licensing calculation is assessed. - Abstract: Units 1 and 2 of the Maanshan nuclear power station are the typical Westinghouse three-loop PWR (pressurized water reactor) with large dry containments. In this study, the containment analysis program GOTHIC is adopted for the dry containment pressure and temperature analysis. Free air space and sump of the PWR dry containment are individually modeled as control volumes. The containment spray system and fan cooler unit are also considered in the GOTHIC model. The blowdown mass and energy data of the main steam line break (hot standby condition and various reactor thermal power levels) are tabulated in the Maanshan Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) 6.2 which could be used as the boundary conditions for the containment model. The calculated containment pressure and temperature behaviors of the selected cases are in good agreement with the FSAR results. In this study, hot standby and 102% reactor thermal power main steam line break accidents are selected. The calculated peak containment pressure is 323.50 kPag (46.92 psig) for hot standby MSLB, which is a little higher than the FSAR value of 311.92 kPag (45.24 psig). But it is still below the design value of 413.69 kPag (60 psig). The calculated peak vapor temperature inside the containment is 187.0 °C (368.59 F) for 102% reactor thermal power MSLB, which is lower than the FSAR result of 194.42 °C (381.95 F). The effects of the containment spray system and fan cooler units could be clearly observed in the GOTHIC analysis. The calculated containment pressure and temperature behaviors of the selected cases are in good agreement with the FSAR

  6. Emergency planning requirements and short-term countermeasures for commercial nuclear power plants in the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kantor, F.; Hogan, R.; Mohseni, A.

    1995-01-01

    Since the accident at the Three Mile Island Unit, the United States Nuclear Regulatory's Commission (NRC's) emergency planning regulations are now considered and an important part of the regulatory framework for protecting the public health and safety. Many aspects of the countermeasures are presented: Emergency Planning Zones (EPZ), off-Site emergency planning and preparedness, responsibilities of nuclear power plants operators and states and local government. Finally, protective action recommendations are given as well as the federal response to an emergency. The authors noted that the use of potassium iodide is not considered as an effective countermeasure for the public protection in the US. (TEC). 1 fig

  7. Enhanced short-term wind power forecasting and value to grid operations. The wind forecasting improvement project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Orwig, Kirsten D. [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States). Transmission Grid Integration; Benjamin, Stan; Wilczak, James; Marquis, Melinda [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, CO (United States). Earth System Research Lab.; Stern, Andrew [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, MD (United States); Clark, Charlton; Cline, Joel [U.S. Department of Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Wind and Water Power Program; Finley, Catherine [WindLogics, Grand Rapids, MN (United States); Freedman, Jeffrey [AWS Truepower, Albany, NY (United States)

    2012-07-01

    The current state-of-the-art wind power forecasting in the 0- to 6-h timeframe has levels of uncertainty that are adding increased costs and risks to the U.S. electrical grid. It is widely recognized within the electrical grid community that improvements to these forecasts could greatly reduce the costs and risks associated with integrating higher penetrations of wind energy. The U.S. Department of Energy has sponsored a research campaign in partnership with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and private industry to foster improvements in wind power forecasting. The research campaign involves a three-pronged approach: (1) a one-year field measurement campaign within two regions; (2) enhancement of NOAA's experimental 3-km High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model by assimilating the data from the field campaign; and (3) evaluation of the economic and reliability benefits of improved forecasts to grid operators. This paper and presentation provide an overview of the regions selected, instrumentation deployed, data quality and control, assimilation of data into HRRR, and preliminary results of HRRR performance analysis. (orig.)

  8. Short-Term Effects of Binaural Beats on EEG Power, Functional Connectivity, Cognition, Gait and Anxiety in Parkinson's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gálvez, Gerardo; Recuero, Manuel; Canuet, Leonides; Del-Pozo, Francisco

    2018-06-01

    We applied rhythmic binaural sound to Parkinson's Disease (PD) patients to investigate its influence on several symptoms of this disease and on Electrophysiology (Electrocardiography and Electroencephalography (EEG)). We conducted a double-blind, randomized controlled study in which rhythmic binaural beats and control were administered over two randomized and counterbalanced sessions (within-subjects repeated-measures design). Patients ([Formula: see text], age [Formula: see text], stage I-III Hoehn & Yahr scale) participated in two sessions of sound stimulation for 10[Formula: see text]min separated by a minimum of 7 days. Data were collected immediately before and after both stimulations with the following results: (1) a decrease in theta activity, (2) a general decrease in Functional Connectivity (FC), and (3) an improvement in working memory performance. However, no significant changes were identified in the gait performance, heart rate or anxiety level of the patients. With regard to the control stimulation, we did not identify significant changes in the variables analyzed. The use of binaural-rhythm stimulation for PD, as designed in this study, seems to be an effective, portable, inexpensive and noninvasive method to modulate brain activity. This influence on brain activity did not induce changes in anxiety or gait parameters; however, it resulted in a normalization of EEG power (altered in PD), normalization of brain FC (also altered in PD) and working memory improvement (a normalizing effect). In summary, we consider that sound, particularly binaural-rhythmic sound, may be a co-assistant tool in the treatment of PD, however more research is needed to consider the use of this type of stimulation as an effective therapy.

  9. Modelling and short-term forecasting of daily peak power demand in Victoria using two-dimensional wavelet based SDP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Truong, Nguyen-Vu; Wang, Liuping; Wong, Peter K.C.

    2008-01-01

    Power demand forecasting is of vital importance to the management and planning of power system operations which include generation, transmission, distribution, as well as system's security analysis and economic pricing processes. This paper concerns the modeling and short-term forecast of daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia. In this study, a two-dimensional wavelet based state dependent parameter (SDP) modelling approach is used to produce a compact mathematical model for this complex nonlinear dynamic system. In this approach, a nonlinear system is expressed by a set of linear regressive input and output terms (state variables) multiplied by the respective state dependent parameters that carry the nonlinearities in the form of 2-D wavelet series expansions. This model is identified based on historical data, descriptively representing the relationship and interaction between various components which affect the peak power demand of a certain day. The identified model has been used to forecast daily peak power demand in the state of Victoria, Australia in the time period from the 9th of August 2007 to the 24th of August 2007. With a MAPE (mean absolute prediction error) of 1.9%, it has clearly implied the effectiveness of the identified model. (author)

  10. Mitigation of Power System Oscillation Caused by Wind Power Fluctuation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Su, Chi; Hu, Weihao; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    oscillation mitigation controllers are proposed and compared. A model of direct-drive-full-convertor-based wind farm connected to the IEEE 10-machine 39-bus system is adopted as the test system. The calculations and simulations are conducted in DIgSILENT PowerFactory 14.0. Results are presented to show......Wind power is increasingly integrated in modern power grids, which brings new challenges to the power system operation. Wind power is fluctuating because of the uncertain nature of wind, whereas wind shear and tower shadow effects also cause periodic fluctuations. These may lead to serious forced...... oscillation when the frequencies of the periodic fluctuations are close to the natural oscillation frequencies of the connected power system. By using modal analysis and time-domain simulations, this study studies the forced oscillation caused by the wind shear and tower shadow effects. Three forced...

  11. Short-term hydro-thermal-wind complementary scheduling considering uncertainty of wind power using an enhanced multi-objective bee colony optimization algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Jianzhong; Lu, Peng; Li, Yuanzheng; Wang, Chao; Yuan, Liu; Mo, Li

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • HTWCS system is established while considering uncertainty of wind power. • An enhanced multi-objective bee colony optimization algorithm is proposed. • Some heuristic repairing strategies are designed to handle various constraints. • HTWCS problem with economic/environment objectives is solved by EMOBCO. - Abstract: This paper presents a short-term economic/environmental hydro-thermal-wind complementary scheduling (HTWCS) system considering uncertainty of wind power, as well as various complicated non-linear constraints. HTWCS system is formulated as a multi-objective optimization problem to optimize conflictive objectives, i.e., economic and environmental criteria. Then an enhanced multi-objective bee colony optimization algorithm (EMOBCO) is proposed to solve this problem, which adopts Elite archive set, adaptive mutation/selection mechanism and local searching strategy to improve global searching ability of standard bee colony optimization (BCO). Especially, a novel constraints-repairing strategy with compressing decision space and a violation-adjustment method are used to handle various hydraulic and electric constraints. Finally, a daily scheduling simulation case of hydro-thermal-wind system is conducted to verify feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed EMOBCO in solving HTWCS problem. The simulation results indicate that the proposed EMOBCO can provide lower economic cost and smaller pollutant emission than other method established recently while considering various complex constraints in HTWCS problem.

  12. Quantum fluctuation theorems and power measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prasanna Venkatesh, B; Watanabe, Gentaro; Talkner, Peter

    2015-01-01

    Work in the paradigm of the quantum fluctuation theorems of Crooks and Jarzynski is determined by projective measurements of energy at the beginning and end of the force protocol. In analogy to classical systems, we consider an alternative definition of work given by the integral of the supplied power determined by integrating up the results of repeated measurements of the instantaneous power during the force protocol. We observe that such a definition of work, in spite of taking account of the process dependence, has different possible values and statistics from the work determined by the conventional two energy measurement approach (TEMA). In the limit of many projective measurements of power, the system’s dynamics is frozen in the power measurement basis due to the quantum Zeno effect leading to statistics only trivially dependent on the force protocol. In general the Jarzynski relation is not satisfied except for the case when the instantaneous power operator commutes with the total Hamiltonian at all times. We also consider properties of the joint statistics of power-based definition of work and TEMA work in protocols where both values are determined. This allows us to quantify their correlations. Relaxing the projective measurement condition, weak continuous measurements of power are considered within the stochastic master equation formalism. Even in this scenario the power-based work statistics is in general not able to reproduce qualitative features of the TEMA work statistics. (paper)

  13. Power fluctuations from large wind farms - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, Poul; Pinson, P.; Cutululis, N.A.; Madsen, Henrik; Jensen, Leo Enrico; Hjerrild, J.; Heyman Donovan, M.; Vigueras-ROdriguez, A.

    2009-08-15

    Experience from power system operation with the first large offshore wind farm in Denmark: Horns Rev shows that the power from the wind farm is fluctuating significantly at certain times, and that this fluctuation is seen directly on the power exchange between Denmark and Germany. This report describes different models for simulation and prediction of wind power fluctuations from large wind farms, and data acquired at the two large offshore wind farms in Denmark are applied to validate the models. Finally, the simulation model is further developed to enable simulations of power fluctuations from several wind farms simultaneously in a larger geographical area, corresponding to a power system control area. (au)

  14. Short-term regulation of hydro powerplants. Studies on the environmental effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sinisalmi, T.; Riihimaeki, J.; Vehanen, T.; Yrjaenae, T.

    1997-01-01

    The publication is a final report on a project studying effects of short-term regulation of hydro power plants. The project consists of two parts: (1) examining and developing methods for evaluation, (2) applying methods in a case study at the Oulujoki River. The economic value of short-term regulation was studied with a model consisting of an optimization model and a river simulation model. Constraints on water level or discharge variations could be given to the power plants and their economical influence could be studied. Effects on shoreline recreation use due to water level fluctuation were studied with a model where various effects are made commensurable and expressed in monetary terms. A literature survey and field experiments were used to study the methods for assessing effects of short-term regulation on river habitats. The state and development needs of fish stocks and fisheries in large regulated rivers were studied and an environmental classification was made. Remedial measures for the short-term regulated rivers were studied with a literature survey and enquiries. A comprehensive picture of the various effects of short-term regulation was gained in the case study in Oulujoki River (110 km long, 7 power plants). Harmful effects can be reduced with the given recommendations of remedial measures on environment and the usage of the hydro power plants. (orig.) 52 refs

  15. Short-term regulation of hydro powerplants. Studies on the environmental effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sinisalmi, T. [ed.; Forsius, J.; Muotka, J.; Soimakallio, H. [Imatran Voima Oy, Vantaa (Finland); Riihimaeki, J. [VTT, Espoo (Finland); Vehanen, T. [Finnish Game and Fisheries Research Inst. (Finland); Yrjaenae, T. [North Ostrobothnia Regional Environmental Centre, Oulu (Finland)

    1997-12-31

    The publication is a final report on a project studying effects of short-term regulation of hydro power plants. The project consists of two parts: (1) examining and developing methods for evaluation, (2) applying methods in a case study at the Oulujoki River. The economic value of short-term regulation was studied with a model consisting of an optimization model and a river simulation model. Constraints on water level or discharge variations could be given to the power plants and their economical influence could be studied. Effects on shoreline recreation use due to water level fluctuation were studied with a model where various effects are made commensurable and expressed in monetary terms. A literature survey and field experiments were used to study the methods for assessing effects of short-term regulation on river habitats. The state and development needs of fish stocks and fisheries in large regulated rivers were studied and an environmental classification was made. Remedial measures for the short-term regulated rivers were studied with a literature survey and enquiries. A comprehensive picture of the various effects of short-term regulation was gained in the case study in Oulujoki River (110 km long, 7 power plants). Harmful effects can be reduced with the given recommendations of remedial measures on environment and the usage of the hydro power plants. (orig.) 52 refs.

  16. A Case Study of Short-term Wave Forecasting Based on FIR Filter: Optimization of the Power Production for the Wavestar Device

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ferri, Francesco; Sichani, Mahdi Teimouri; Frigaard, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Short-term wave forecasting plays a crucial role for the control of a wave energy converter (WEC), in order to increase the energy harvest from the waves, as well as to increase its life time. In the paper it is shown how the surface elevation of the waves and the force acting on the WEC can be p...

  17. Short-Term Variability and Power Spectral Density Analysis of the Radio-Loud Active Galactic Nucleus 3C 390.3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gliozzi, Mario; Papadakis, Iossif E.; Eracleous, Michael; Sambruna, Rita M.; Ballantyne, David R.; Braito, Valentina; Reeves, James N.

    2009-09-01

    We investigate the short-term variability properties and the power spectral density (PSD) of the broad-line radio galaxy (BLRG) 3C 390.3 using observations made by XMM-Newton, RXTE, and Suzaku on several occasions between 2004 October and 2006 December. The main aim of this work is to derive model-independent constraints on the origin of the X-ray emission and on the nature of the central engine in 3C 390.3. On timescales of the order of few hours, probed by uninterrupted XMM-Newton light curves, the flux of 3C 390.3 is consistent with being constant in all energy bands. On longer timescales, probed by the 2-day RXTE and Suzaku observations, the flux variability becomes significant. The latter observation confirms that the spectral variability behavior of 3C 390.3 is consistent with the spectral evolution observed in (radio-quiet) Seyfert galaxies: the spectrum softens as the source brightens. The correlated variability between soft and hard X-rays, observed during the Suzaku exposure and between the two XMM-Newton pointings, taken 1 week apart, argues against scenarios characterized by the presence of two distinct variable components in the 0.5-10 keV X-ray band. A detailed PSD analysis carried out over five decades in frequency suggests the presence of a break at T br = 43+34 -25 days at a 92% confidence level. This is the second tentative detection of a PSD break in a radio-loud, non-jet dominated active galactic nucleus (AGN), after the BLRG 3C 120, and appears to be in general agreement with the relation between T br, M BH, and L bol, followed by Seyfert galaxies. Our results indicate that the X-ray variability properties of 3C 390.3 are broadly consistent with those of radio-quiet AGN, suggesting that the X-ray emission mechanism in 3C 390.3 is similar to that of nearby Seyfert galaxies without any significant contribution from a jet component.

  18. SHORT-TERM VARIABILITY AND POWER SPECTRAL DENSITY ANALYSIS OF THE RADIO-LOUD ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEUS 3C 390.3

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gliozzi, Mario; Papadakis, Iossif E.; Eracleous, Michael; Sambruna, Rita M.; Ballantyne, David R.; Braito, Valentina; Reeves, James N.

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the short-term variability properties and the power spectral density (PSD) of the broad-line radio galaxy (BLRG) 3C 390.3 using observations made by XMM-Newton, RXTE, and Suzaku on several occasions between 2004 October and 2006 December. The main aim of this work is to derive model-independent constraints on the origin of the X-ray emission and on the nature of the central engine in 3C 390.3. On timescales of the order of few hours, probed by uninterrupted XMM-Newton light curves, the flux of 3C 390.3 is consistent with being constant in all energy bands. On longer timescales, probed by the 2-day RXTE and Suzaku observations, the flux variability becomes significant. The latter observation confirms that the spectral variability behavior of 3C 390.3 is consistent with the spectral evolution observed in (radio-quiet) Seyfert galaxies: the spectrum softens as the source brightens. The correlated variability between soft and hard X-rays, observed during the Suzaku exposure and between the two XMM-Newton pointings, taken 1 week apart, argues against scenarios characterized by the presence of two distinct variable components in the 0.5-10 keV X-ray band. A detailed PSD analysis carried out over five decades in frequency suggests the presence of a break at T br = 43 +34 -25 days at a 92% confidence level. This is the second tentative detection of a PSD break in a radio-loud, non-jet dominated active galactic nucleus (AGN), after the BLRG 3C 120, and appears to be in general agreement with the relation between T br , M BH , and L bol , followed by Seyfert galaxies. Our results indicate that the X-ray variability properties of 3C 390.3 are broadly consistent with those of radio-quiet AGN, suggesting that the X-ray emission mechanism in 3C 390.3 is similar to that of nearby Seyfert galaxies without any significant contribution from a jet component.

  19. Retrospective assessment of internal doses for short-term visitors to Fukushima within one month after the nuclear power plant accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matsuda, Naoki [Nagasaki Univ., Center for Frontier Life Sciences, Nagasaki, Nagasaki (Japan); Kumagai, Atsushi; Ohtsuru, Akira [Fukushima Medical University, Fukushima, Fukushima (Japan); Morita, Naoko; Miura, Miwa; Yoshida, Masahiro; Kudo, Takashi; Takamura, Noboru; Yamashita, Shunichi [Nagasaki Univ., Graduate School of Biomedical Sciences, Nagasaki, Nagasaki (Japan)

    2012-11-15

    Short-term visitors to Fukushima have been monitored for internal exposure by using the whole body counter of the Nagasaki University Medical School. The total number of subjects exceeds 900 at the end of July, 2012. The highest committed effective dose and thyroid equivalent dose in 173 people who stayed in Fukushima during March 11th to April 10th, 2011 were assessed around 1 mSv and 20 mSv, respectively. (author)

  20. A Short Term Analogue Memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shah, Peter Jivan

    1992-01-01

    A short term analogue memory is described. It is based on a well-known sample-hold topology in which leakage currents have been minimized partly by circuit design and partly by layout techniques. Measurements on a test chip implemented in a standard 2.4 micron analogue CMOS process show a droop...

  1. Allocation of thermoelectric units in short term in large scale electric power systems; Asignacion de unidades termoelectricas a corto plazo en sistemas electricos de potencia de gran escala

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guillen Moya, Isaias

    1987-08-01

    A method is presented to solve the problem of allocation of thermoelectric units in large scale electric power systems. The problem consists in determining which generating units have to be programmed to enter or to leave the operation during the intervals of the planning horizon in such a way that are satisfied at a minimum cost, and in a reliable form, the foretold demand of electric power and the physical and operative restrictions of the power system components. The method is made up of two stages: the first stage finds a feasible initial solution of thermoelectrical units by means of heuristic methods. The second stage produces a solution from a state of feasible initial allocation. The operation cost is reduced applying dynamic programming in subsequent approaches, in such a way that the product of each interaction constitutes the state of allocation of least cost found until that stage. The of search range for the optimal solution is reduced by applying technical of lagrangean relaxation to select solely the units that have the greater potential to reduce the operation cost. The algorithm is validated using a representative system of the Interconnected National System, that consists of 108 thermoelectrical units grouped in 7 groups of generation, for a planning horizon of one week divided into hourly intervals, containing 18,144 discreet variables, 18,144 continuous variables and 39,024 restrictions. In a VAX 11/780 computer the problem is solved in 55 of CPU minutes with an estimation of the 1.02% of sub-optimality that indicates how close it is of the optimal solution. The main contributions of this thesis are within the short term operation planning of the electric power systems which are: (1) The development of a heuristic-mathematical algorithm to solve the problem of allocation of thermoelectric units in large scale electric power systems, in relatively short execution time. The algorithm efficiently conjugates of lagrangean relaxation technical

  2. Comment on “Short-term combined economic emission scheduling of hydrothermal power systems with cascaded reservoirs using differential evolution” by K.K. Mandal and N. Chakaborty [Energy Convers. Manage. 50 (2009) 97–104

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahmadi, Abdollah; Nezhad, Ali Esmaeel

    2015-01-01

    This paper discusses the short-term combined economic emission scheduling of hydrothermal power systems with cascaded reservoirs [Energy Convers Manage. 50 (2009) 97–104], while differential evolution algorithm has been employed to solve the optimization problem. However, this problem is subjected to several constraints like the generation limitations of generating units. The solutions reported in the original paper do not satisfy the constraint on the initial and final reservoir storage volumes of hydro units as well as the constraint on the generated power by such units, which should be positive at any time of the scheduling period. Thus, this paper intends to prove this issue and solve the problem using Normal Boundary Intersection (NBI) method, in order to propose the correct solutions satisfying all the constraints of the short-term hydrothermal scheduling problem

  3. Power fluctuation reduction methodology for the grid-connected renewable power systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aula, Fadhil T.; Lee, Samuel C.

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a new methodology for eliminating the influence of the power fluctuations of the renewable power systems. The renewable energy, which is to be considered an uncertain and uncontrollable resource, can only provide irregular electrical power to the power grid. This irregularity creates fluctuations of the generated power from the renewable power systems. These fluctuations cause instability to the power system and influence the operation of conventional power plants. Overall, the power system is vulnerable to collapse if necessary actions are not taken to reduce the impact of these fluctuations. This methodology aims at reducing these fluctuations and makes the generated power capability for covering the power consumption. This requires a prediction tool for estimating the generated power in advance to provide the range and the time of occurrence of the fluctuations. Since most of the renewable energies are weather based, as a result a weather forecast technique will be used for predicting the generated power. The reduction of the fluctuation also requires stabilizing facilities to maintain the output power at a desired level. In this study, a wind farm and a photovoltaic array as renewable power systems and a pumped-storage and batteries as stabilizing facilities are used, since they are best suitable for compensating the fluctuations of these types of power suppliers. As an illustrative example, a model of wind and photovoltaic power systems with battery energy and pumped hydro storage facilities for power fluctuation reduction is included, and its power fluctuation reduction is verified through simulation.

  4. A urine midmolecule osteocalcin assay shows higher discriminatory power than a serum midmolecule osteocalcin assay during short-term alendronate treatment of osteoporotic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srivastava, A K; Mohan, S; Singer, F R; Baylink, D J

    2002-07-01

    We isolated and characterized a peptide fragment corresponding to amino acid sequence 14-28 of human osteocalcin in urine from Paget's disease, and developed a polyclonal antibody reactive to this peptide in urine. We used this antibody to measure urinary fragments of osteocalcin and compared to efficacy of the urinary osteocalcin assay with a serum osteocalcin (sOC) assay (ELISA-Osteo, Cis-Bio International) to monitor the short-term changes in bone turnover in response to alendronate treatment. The synthetic peptide-based urinary osteocalcin (uOC) radioimmunoassay (RIA) showed an analytical sensitivity of 6.25 ng/mL, standard curve range of 3.12-400 ng/mL, and mean intra- (n = 20) and interassay (n = 30) coefficient of variation (CV) of sALP) (Alkphose-B, Metra Biosystems) in serum samples. The percent change data obtained between baseline and 30 days (n = 18) posttreatment suggested a rapid decline in uOC concentration (-27%, p sALP (-3.4%, p = 0.689), two specific markers of bone formation. As expected, due to the coupling of bone formation and bone resorption, the concentration of all markers showed a 30%-45% decline compared with baseline values after 90 days (n = 16) of treatment. Correlation of markers after a 30 day treatment with alendronate revealed a higher correlation (r = 0.61, p sALP (r = -0.14, p = 0.295) with uNTx. Similarly, correlation coefficients with r values between 0.48 and 0.55 (p < 0.05) were observed between uOC, sNTx, and sCTx, whereas no significant correlation was observed between sOC and sNTx or sCTx. These results provide indirect evidence that fragments measured by the urine assay probably originated from bone resorption, and suggest that the uOC assay could be used to assess short-term changes in bone metabolism with regard to osteocalcin.

  5. Short-term LNG-markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eldegard, Tom; Lund, Arne-Christian; Miltersen, Kristian; Rud, Linda

    2005-01-01

    The global Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) industry has experienced substantial growth in the past decades. In the traditional trade patterns of LNG the product has typically been handled within a dedicated chain of plants and vessels fully committed by long term contracts or common ownership, providing risk sharing of large investments in a non-liquid market. Increasing gas prices and substantial cost reductions in all parts of the LNG chain have made LNG projects viable even if only part of the capacity is secured by long-term contracts, opening for more flexible trade of the remainder. Increasing gas demand, especially in power generation, combined with cost reductions in the cost of LNG terminals, open new markets for LNG. For the LNG supplier, the flexibility of shifting volumes between regions represents an additional value. International trade in LNG has been increasing, now accounting for more than one fifth of the world's cross-border gas trade. Despite traditional vertical chain bonds, increased flexibility has contributed in fact to an increasing LNG spot trade, representing 8% of global trade in 2002. The focus of this paper is on the development of global short-term LNG markets, and their role with respect to efficiency and security of supply in European gas markets. Arbitrage opportunities arising from price differences between regional markets (such as North America versus Europe) are important impetuses for flexible short-term trade. However, the short-term LNG trade may suffer from problems related to market access, e.g. limited access to terminals and regulatory issues, as well as rigidities connected to vertical binding within the LNG chain. Important issues related to the role of short-term LNG-trade in the European gas market are: Competition, flexibility in meeting peak demand, security of supply and consequences of differences in pricing policies (oil-linked prices in Europe and spot market prices in North America). (Author)

  6. Work and power fluctuations in a critical heat engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holubec, Viktor; Ryabov, Artem

    2017-09-01

    We investigate fluctuations of output work for a class of Stirling heat engines with working fluid composed of interacting units and compare these fluctuations to an average work output. In particular, we focus on engine performance close to a critical point where Carnot's efficiency may be attained at a finite power as reported by M. Campisi and R. Fazio [Nat. Commun. 7, 11895 (2016), 10.1038/ncomms11895]. We show that the variance of work output per cycle scales with the same critical exponent as the heat capacity of the working fluid. As a consequence, the relative work fluctuation diverges unless the output work obeys a rather strict scaling condition, which would be very hard to fulfill in practice. Even under this condition, the fluctuations of work and power do not vanish in the infinite system size limit. Large fluctuations of output work thus constitute inseparable and dominant element in performance of the macroscopic heat engines close to a critical point.

  7. Work and power fluctuations in a critical heat engine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holubec, Viktor; Ryabov, Artem

    2017-09-01

    We investigate fluctuations of output work for a class of Stirling heat engines with working fluid composed of interacting units and compare these fluctuations to an average work output. In particular, we focus on engine performance close to a critical point where Carnot's efficiency may be attained at a finite power as reported by M. Campisi and R. Fazio [Nat. Commun. 7, 11895 (2016)2041-172310.1038/ncomms11895]. We show that the variance of work output per cycle scales with the same critical exponent as the heat capacity of the working fluid. As a consequence, the relative work fluctuation diverges unless the output work obeys a rather strict scaling condition, which would be very hard to fulfill in practice. Even under this condition, the fluctuations of work and power do not vanish in the infinite system size limit. Large fluctuations of output work thus constitute inseparable and dominant element in performance of the macroscopic heat engines close to a critical point.

  8. Short-term variability of Cyg X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, M.; Doi, K.; Ogawara, Y.

    1976-01-01

    The short-term X-ray variability distinguishes Cyg X-1, which is the most likely candidate for a black hole, from other X-ray sources. The present status of our knowledge on this short-term variation, mainly from the UHURU, the MIT and the GSFC observations, is reviewed. The nature of impulsive variations which compose the time variation exceeding the statistical fluctuation is discussed. There are indications that the energy spectrum of large pulses is harder than the average spectrum, or that the large pulses are the characteristics of the hard component of the spectrum if it is composed of two, soft and hard, components. Features of the variations may be partly simulated by the superposition of random shot-noise pulses with a fraction of a second duration. However, the autocorrelation analysis and the dynamic spectrum analysis indicate that the correlation lasts for several seconds and in the variation are buried some regularities which exhibit power concentrations in several frequency bands; 0.2-0.3, 0.4-0.5, 0.8, 1.2-1.5 Hz. There are several possible interpretations of these results in terms of; e.g. (a) a mixture of shot-noise pulses with two or more constant durations, (b) the shape of the basic shot-noise pulse, (c) bunching of the pulses, (d) superposition of wave-packets or temporal oscillations. But we have not yet reached any definite understandings in the nature of the variabilities. The substructure of the fluctuations on a time scale of milliseconds suggested by two investigations is also discussed. (Auth.)

  9. Short-term variability of CYG X-1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oda, M.; Doi, K.; Ogawara, Y.; Takagishi, K.; Wada, M.

    1975-01-01

    The short-term X-ray variability distinguishes Cyg X-1, which is the most likely candidate of the black hole, from other X-ray sources. Present status of our knowledge on this short-term variation mainly from the Uhuru, the MIT and the GSFC observations is reviewed. The nature of impulsive variations which compose the time variation exceeding the statistical fluctuation is discussed. There are indications that the energy spectrum of large pulses is harder than the average spectrum or the large pulses are the characteristics of the hard component of the spectrum if it is composed of two, soft and hard, components. Features of the variations may be partly simulated by the superposition of random short-noise pulses with a fraction of a second duration. However, the autocorrelation analysis and the dynamic spectrum analysis indicate that the correlation lasts for several seconds and in the variation buried are some regularities which exhibit power concentrations in several frequency bands; 0.2 -- 0.3, 0.4 -- 0.5, 0.8, 1.2 -- 1.5 Hz. There are several possible interpretation of these results in terms of: e.g. a) a mixture of short-noise pulses with two or more constant durations, b) the shape of the basic shot-noise pulse, c) bunching of the pulses, d) superposition of wave-packets or temporal oscillations. But we have not yet reached any definite understandings in the nature of the variabilities. The sub-structure of the fluctuations on a time scale of milli-second suggested by two investigations is also discussed. (auth.)

  10. Towards uncovering the structure of power fluctuations of wind farms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Huiwen; Jin, Yaqing; Tobin, Nicolas; Chamorro, Leonardo P

    2017-12-01

    The structure of the turbulence-driven power fluctuations in a wind farm is fundamentally described from basic concepts. A derived tuning-free model, supported with experiments, reveals the underlying spectral content of the power fluctuations of a wind farm. It contains two power-law trends and oscillations in the relatively low- and high-frequency ranges. The former is mostly due to the turbulent interaction between the flow and the turbine properties, whereas the latter is due to the advection between turbine pairs. The spectral wind-farm scale power fluctuations Φ_{P} exhibit a power-law decay proportional to f^{-5/3-2} in the region corresponding to the turbulence inertial subrange and at relatively large scales, Φ_{P}∼f^{-2}. Due to the advection and turbulent diffusion of large-scale structures, a spectral oscillation exists with the product of a sinusoidal behavior and an exponential decay in the frequency domain.

  11. Panorama 2013 - Short term trends in the gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecarpentier, Armelle

    2012-10-01

    The outlook for gas industry development in the short term is clouded by uncertainties (impact of the economic slowdown, competition between energies, price fluctuations, etc.). However, as in 2012, many favorable factors in terms of natural gas supply and demand point to sustained and sustainable growth of this energy. (author)

  12. Implementation of short-term prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Landberg, L; Joensen, A; Giebel, G [and others

    1999-03-01

    This paper will giver a general overview of the results from a EU JOULE funded project (`Implementing short-term prediction at utilities`, JOR3-CT95-0008). Reference will be given to specialised papers where applicable. The goal of the project was to implement wind farm power output prediction systems in operational environments at a number of utilities in Europe. Two models were developed, one by Risoe and one by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Both prediction models used HIRLAM predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). (au) EFP-94; EU-JOULE. 11 refs.

  13. The “Weather Intelligence for Renewable Energies” Benchmarking Exercise on Short-Term Forecasting of Wind and Solar Power Generation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sperati, Simone; Alessandrini, Stefano; Pinson, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    the power output of two wind farms and two photovoltaic power plants, in order to compare the merits of forecasts based on different modeling approaches and input data. It was thus possible to obtain a better knowledge of the state of the art in both wind and solar power forecasting, with an overview...

  14. Control voltage and power fluctuations when connecting wind farms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berinde, Ioan; Bǎlan, Horia; Oros Pop, Teodora Susana

    2015-12-01

    Voltage, frequency, active power and reactive power are very important parameters in terms of power quality. These parameters are followed when connecting any power plant, the more the connection of wind farms. Connecting wind farms to the electricity system must not cause interference outside the limits set by regulations. Modern solutions for fast and automatic voltage control and power fluctuations using electronic control systems of reactive power flows. FACTS (Flexible Alternating Current Transmision System) systems, established on the basis of power electronic circuits ensure control of electrical status quantities to achieve the necessary transfer of power to the power grid. FACTS devices can quickly control parameters and sizes of state power lines, such as impedance line voltages and phase angles of the voltages of the two ends of the line. Their use can lead to improvement in power system operation by increasing the transmission capacity of power lines, power flow control lines, improved static and transient stability reserve.

  15. Control voltage and power fluctuations when connecting wind farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berinde, Ioan; Bălan, Horia; Oros, Teodora Susana

    2015-01-01

    Voltage, frequency, active power and reactive power are very important parameters in terms of power quality. These parameters are followed when connecting any power plant, the more the connection of wind farms. Connecting wind farms to the electricity system must not cause interference outside the limits set by regulations. Modern solutions for fast and automatic voltage control and power fluctuations using electronic control systems of reactive power flows. FACTS (Flexible Alternating Current Transmision System) systems, established on the basis of power electronic circuits ensure control of electrical status quantities to achieve the necessary transfer of power to the power grid. FACTS devices can quickly control parameters and sizes of state power lines, such as impedance line voltages and phase angles of the voltages of the two ends of the line. Their use can lead to improvement in power system operation by increasing the transmission capacity of power lines, power flow control lines, improved static and transient stability reserve

  16. Control voltage and power fluctuations when connecting wind farms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berinde, Ioan, E-mail: ioan-berinde@yahoo.com; Bălan, Horia, E-mail: hbalan@mail.utcluj.ro; Oros, Teodora Susana, E-mail: teodoraoros-87@yahoo.com [Technical University of Cluj-Napoca, Romania, Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Department of Power Engineering and Management (Romania)

    2015-12-23

    Voltage, frequency, active power and reactive power are very important parameters in terms of power quality. These parameters are followed when connecting any power plant, the more the connection of wind farms. Connecting wind farms to the electricity system must not cause interference outside the limits set by regulations. Modern solutions for fast and automatic voltage control and power fluctuations using electronic control systems of reactive power flows. FACTS (Flexible Alternating Current Transmision System) systems, established on the basis of power electronic circuits ensure control of electrical status quantities to achieve the necessary transfer of power to the power grid. FACTS devices can quickly control parameters and sizes of state power lines, such as impedance line voltages and phase angles of the voltages of the two ends of the line. Their use can lead to improvement in power system operation by increasing the transmission capacity of power lines, power flow control lines, improved static and transient stability reserve.

  17. From Brownian motion to power of fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Berche

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The year 2012 marks the 140th birth anniversary of Marian Smoluchowski (28.05.1872-5.09.1917, a man who "made ground-breaking contribution to the theory of Brownian motion, the theory of sedimentation, the statistical nature of the Second Law, the theory and practice of density fluctuations (critical opalescence. During his final years of scientific creativity his pioneering theory of coagulation and diffusion-limited reaction rate appeared. These outstanding achievements present true gems which dominate the description of soft matter physics and chemical physics as well as the related areas up till now!" This quotation was taken from the lecture by Peter Hanggi given at international conference Statistical Physics: Modern Trends and Applications that took place in Lviv, Ukraine on July 3-6, 2012 (see conference web-page for more details and was dedicated to the commemoration of Smoluchowski's work. This and forthcoming issues of the Condensed Matter Physics contain papers presented at this conference.

  18. Short-Term Wind Speed Forecasting Using Decomposition-Based Neural Networks Combining Abnormal Detection Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xuejun Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As one of the most promising renewable resources in electricity generation, wind energy is acknowledged for its significant environmental contributions and economic competitiveness. Because wind fluctuates with strong variation, it is quite difficult to describe the characteristics of wind or to estimate the power output that will be injected into the grid. In particular, short-term wind speed forecasting, an essential support for the regulatory actions and short-term load dispatching planning during the operation of wind farms, is currently regarded as one of the most difficult problems to be solved. This paper contributes to short-term wind speed forecasting by developing two three-stage hybrid approaches; both are combinations of the five-three-Hanning (53H weighted average smoothing method, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD algorithm, and nonlinear autoregressive (NAR neural networks. The chosen datasets are ten-minute wind speed observations, including twelve samples, and our simulation indicates that the proposed methods perform much better than the traditional ones when addressing short-term wind speed forecasting problems.

  19. Demand side management in households. Potentials and restraints of short-term power supply; Demand Side Management in Haushalten. Potenziale und Hemmnisse fuer kurzfristige Leistungsbereitstellung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roon, Serafin von; Gobmaier, Thomas [FfE Forschungsstelle fuer Energiewirtschaft e.V., Muenchen (Germany); Huck, Malte

    2010-07-01

    Within the project ''Wind energy - balancing forecast errors'' we examine potentials, restraints and costs of various options for balancing forecast errors of wind power generation. One possibility of providing this backup power could be to practice Demand Side Management (DSM) of household appliances. The integration of these appliances in a DSM network is facilitated by standardized data transmission procedures and the increasing deployment of microprocessors. Due to the low power consumption of the switchable devices no DSM measures are implemented in the household sector so far, despite the numerous appliances. (orig.)

  20. A General Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Offshore Wind Power Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    Accurate wind power forecasts highly contribute to the integration of wind power into power systems. The focus of the present study is on large-scale offshore wind farms and the complexity of generating accurate probabilistic forecasts of wind power fluctuations at time-scales of a few minutes...... fluctuations are characterized by highly volatile dynamics which are difficult to capture and predict. Due to the lack of adequate on-site meteorological observations to relate these dynamics to meteorological phenomena, we propose a general model formulation based on a statistical approach and historical wind...... power measurements only. We introduce an advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method to account for the different features observed in an empirical time series of wind power: autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and regime-switching. The model we propose is an extension of Markov...

  1. Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Tim; LeBlanc, Troy; Ulman, Brian; McDonald, Aaron; Gramm, Paul; Chang, Li-Min; Keerthi, Suman; Kivlovitz, Dov; Hadlock, Jason

    2011-01-01

    Onboard Short Term Plan Viewer (OSTPV) is a computer program for electronic display of mission plans and timelines, both aboard the International Space Station (ISS) and in ISS ground control stations located in several countries. OSTPV was specifically designed both (1) for use within the limited ISS computing environment and (2) to be compatible with computers used in ground control stations. OSTPV supplants a prior system in which, aboard the ISS, timelines were printed on paper and incorporated into files that also contained other paper documents. Hence, the introduction of OSTPV has both reduced the consumption of resources and saved time in updating plans and timelines. OSTPV accepts, as input, the mission timeline output of a legacy, print-oriented, UNIX-based program called "Consolidated Planning System" and converts the timeline information for display in an interactive, dynamic, Windows Web-based graphical user interface that is used by both the ISS crew and ground control teams in real time. OSTPV enables the ISS crew to electronically indicate execution of timeline steps, launch electronic procedures, and efficiently report to ground control teams on the statuses of ISS activities, all by use of laptop computers aboard the ISS.

  2. Profiling the regional wind power fluctuation in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Dayang; Liang Jun; Han Xueshan; Zhao Jianguo

    2011-01-01

    As China starts to build 6 10-GW wind zones in 5 provinces by 2020, accommodating the wind electricity generated from these large wind zones will be a great challenge for the regional grids. Inadequate wind observing data hinders profiling the wind power fluctuations at the regional grid level. This paper proposed a method to assess the seasonal and diurnal wind power patterns based on the wind speed data from the NASA GEOS-5 DAS system, which provides data to the study of climate processes including the long-term estimates of meteorological quantities. The wind power fluctuations for the 6 largest wind zones in China are presented with both the capacity factor and the megawatt wind power output. The measured hourly wind output in a regional grid is compared to the calculating result to test the analyzing model. To investigate the offsetting effect of dispersed wind farms over large regions, the regional correlations of hourly wind power fluctuations are calculated. The result illustrates the different offsetting effects of minute and hourly fluctuations.

  3. Regional Issue Identification and Assessment Program (RIIA). A methodology for analyzing the short-term air quality impacts of new power plants: issue paper 5

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipfert, F.W.

    1979-07-01

    A simplified methodology is presented, based on Gaussian plume relationships, which could be used to assess regulatory constraints and vegetation damage for new power plants. Data input requirements include: (a) power plant size (MW), (b) fuel type, sulfur content, and level of control, and (c) nearby terrain elevation difference, with respect to stack base, for critical receptors. Based on sample calculations the 24-hour PSD increment is seen to be the most restrictive, using the ASME dispersion coefficients. An 800-MW plant (which is close to the optimum size from cost and reliability considerations according to a recent analysis), could be forced to reduce emissions below the levels assumed in this paper if adverse conditions were encountered. For example, terrain features higher than about 300 m at the critical distance from the plant could be restrictive, as could sufficiently persistent winds that would confine 24-hour plume spreading to <10/sup 0/.

  4. Regime-based supervisory control to reduce power fluctuations from offshore wind power plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barahona Garzón, Braulio; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Trombe, Pierre-Julien

    2013-01-01

    Wind power fluctuations, especially offshore, can pose challenges in the secure and stable operation of the power system. In modern large offshore wind farms, there are supervisory controls designed to reduce the power fluctuations. Their operation is limited due to the fact that they imply loss...... that consider different wind power regimes to derive control setpoints by using a Markov-Switching AutoRegressive model. We evaluate the performance versus measured data in terms of power ramp characteristics and energy efficiency....

  5. A comparison between the ECMWF and COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems applied to short-term wind power forecasting on real data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alessandrini, S.; Sperati, S.; Pinson, Pierre

    2013-01-01

    together with a single forecast power value for each future time horizon. A comparison between two different ensemble forecasting models, ECMWF EPS (Ensemble Prediction System in use at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) and COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System developed...... ahead forecast horizon. A statistical calibration of the ensemble wind speed members based on the use of past wind speed measurements is explained. The two models are compared using common verification indices and diagrams. The higher horizontal resolution model (COSMO-LEPS) shows slightly better...

  6. Discussion of “Prediction intervals for short-term wind farm generation forecasts” and “Combined nonparametric prediction intervals for wind power generation”

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Tastu, Julija

    2014-01-01

    A new score for the evaluation of interval forecasts, the so-called coverage width-based criterion (CWC), was proposed and utilized.. This score has been used for the tuning (in-sample) and genuine evaluation (out-ofsample) of prediction intervals for various applications, e.g., electric load [1......], electricity prices [2], general purpose prediction [3], and wind power generation [4], [5]. Indeed, two papers by the same authors appearing in the IEEE Transactions On Sustainable Energy employ that score and use it to conclude on the comparative quality of alternative approaches to interval forecasting...

  7. Short-term optimization of the new Avce pumping plant and three existing hydro power plants on the Soca river in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bregar, Zvonko

    2007-01-01

    In the following years a new pumping plant Avce is going to join the existing cascade of three small-regulating-basin hydro power plants (HPPs) on the Soca river in Slovenia. The pumping plant operation will have to be synchronous to the operation of existing plants and vice versa since all four plants depend upon the same inflow and since they all belong to the same generation company that buys and sells electricity to a day-ahead electricity market. The Soca river has torrent alpine characteristics so there are doubts about the operation of the system in frequent dry seasons. As shown in this article, such questions can be effectively solved by first presenting the hydro system of four HPPs under study as a directed graph and then as a mixed integer linear program (MILP): a set of equations and inequations modeling technical issues of HPPs and a target function (the day-ahead market price) modeling the electricity market. A small and simple MILP model called Flores has been used for this study. The MILP approach requires only to specify the problem since the solution is found by using available commercial computer solvers. It can be applied on-line and it can be augmented to include also the transmission constraints, ancillary services, etc. (author)

  8. Short-term optimization of the new Avce pumping plant and three existing hydro power plants on the Soca river in Slovenia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bregar, Zvonko [Milan Vidmar Electric Power Research Institute, Hajdrihova 2, SI-1000 Ljubljana (Slovenia)

    2007-08-15

    In the following years a new pumping plant Avce is going to join the existing cascade of three small-regulating-basin hydro power plants (HPPs) on the Soca river in Slovenia. The pumping plant operation will have to be synchronous to the operation of existing plants and vice versa since all four plants depend upon the same inflow and since they all belong to the same generation company that buys and sells electricity to a day-ahead electricity market. The Soca river has torrent alpine characteristics so there are doubts about the operation of the system in frequent dry seasons. As shown in this article, such questions can be effectively solved by first presenting the hydro system of four HPPs under study as a directed graph and then as a mixed integer linear program (MILP): a set of equations and inequations modeling technical issues of HPPs and a target function (the day-ahead market price) modeling the electricity market. A small and simple MILP model called Flores has been used for this study. The MILP approach requires only to specify the problem since the solution is found by using available commercial computer solvers. It can be applied on-line and it can be augmented to include also the transmission constraints, ancillary services, etc. (author)

  9. Short-term effects of repeated olfactory administration of homeopathic sulphur or pulsatilla on electroencephalographic alpha power in healthy young adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Iris R; Brooks, Audrey J; Howerter, Amy; Jackson, Nicholas; Schwartz, Gary E

    2011-10-01

    Homeopathic pathogenetic trials usually rely on symptom self report measures. Adding objective biomarkers could enhance detection of subtle initial remedy effects. The present feasibility study examined electroencephalographic (EEG) effects of repeated olfactory administration of two polycrest remedies. College student volunteers (ages 18-30, both sexes) from an introductory psychology course were screened for good health and relatively elevated Sulphur or Pulsatilla symptom scores on the Homeopathic Constitutional Type Questionnaire (CTQ). Subjects underwent a series of 3 once-weekly double-blind sessions during which they repeatedly sniffed the remedy matched to their CTQ type and solvent controls. Each remedy was given in a 6c, 12c, and 30c potency, one potency per week, in randomly assigned order. Solvent controls included both plain distilled water and a water-ethanol (95%) solution. All sniff test solutions were further diluted just prior to laboratory sessions (0.5 ml test solution in 150 ml distilled water). Within a session, remedies and control solvents were administered via 2-s sniffs (8 sniffs of each of 4 different succussion levels for the potency in randomized order). Primary outcome variable was relative EEG power (alpha 1 8-10 Hz; alpha 2 10-12 Hz) averaged over 19 electrode sites, including all succussions for a given potency. Mixed-effect models revealed significant main effects for remedy type (Sulphur >Pulsatilla) in both alpha bands, controlling for gender, baseline resting EEG alpha, and solvent control responses. Additional analyses showed significant nonlinear interactions between dilution and time (weekly session) in alpha 2 for both remedies and alpha 1 for Sulphur. EEG alpha offers an objective biomarker of remedy effects for future studies and potential method for distinguishing time-dependent effects of specific remedies and remedy potencies from one another. Copyright © 2011 The Faculty of Homeopathy. Published by Elsevier Ltd

  10. Backreaction of Cosmological Fluctuations during Power-Law Inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marozzi, G.

    2007-01-01

    We study the renormalized energy-momentum tensor of cosmological scalar fluctuations during the slow-rollover regime for power-law inflation and find that it is characterized by a negative energy density at the leading order, with the same time behavior as the background energy. The average expansion rate appears decreased by the backreaction of the effective energy of cosmological fluctuations, but this value is comparable with the energy of the background only if inflation starts at a Planckian energy. We also find that, for this particular model, the first- and second-order inflaton fluctuations are decoupled and satisfy the same equation of motion. To conclude, the fourth-order adiabatic expansion for the inflaton scalar field is evaluated for a general potential V(φ)

  11. Operations Management in Short Term Power Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heide-Jørgensen, Ditte Mølgård

    Electricity market models have often been modelled as deterministic or at most two-stage stochastic models with an hourly time resolution. This thesis looks into possible ways of extending such models and formulating new models to handle both higher time resolution than hourly and stochastics wit...

  12. The Demonstration of Short-Term Consolidation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolicoeur, Pierre; Dell'Acqua, Roberto

    1998-01-01

    Results of seven experiments involving 112 college students or staff using a dual-task approach provide evidence that encoding information into short-term memory involves a distinct process termed short-term consolidation (STC). Results suggest that STC has limited capacity and that it requires central processing mechanisms. (SLD)

  13. Short-Term Intercultural Psychotherapy: Ethnographic Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, Karen M.

    2004-01-01

    This article examines the challenges specific to short-term intercultural treatments and recently developed approaches to intercultural treatments based on notions of cultural knowledge and cultural competence. The article introduces alternative approaches to short-term intercultural treatments based on ethnographic inquiry adapted for clinical…

  14. Short term memory in echo state networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jaeger, H.

    2001-01-01

    The report investigates the short-term memory capacity of echo state recurrent neural networks. A quantitative measure MC of short-term memory capacity is introduced. The main result is that MC 5 N for networks with linear Output units and i.i.d. input, where N is network size. Conditions under which these maximal memory capacities are realized are described. Several theoretical and practical examples demonstrate how the short-term memory capacities of echo state networks can be exploited for...

  15. A General Probabilistic Forecasting Framework for Offshore Wind Power Fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik Madsen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Accurate wind power forecasts highly contribute to the integration of wind power into power systems. The focus of the present study is on large-scale offshore wind farms and the complexity of generating accurate probabilistic forecasts of wind power fluctuations at time-scales of a few minutes. Such complexity is addressed from three perspectives: (i the modeling of a nonlinear and non-stationary stochastic process; (ii the practical implementation of the model we proposed; (iii the gap between working on synthetic data and real world observations. At time-scales of a few minutes, offshore fluctuations are characterized by highly volatile dynamics which are difficult to capture and predict. Due to the lack of adequate on-site meteorological observations to relate these dynamics to meteorological phenomena, we propose a general model formulation based on a statistical approach and historical wind power measurements only. We introduce an advanced Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC estimation method to account for the different features observed in an empirical time series of wind power: autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and regime-switching. The model we propose is an extension of Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MSAR models with Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH errors in each regime to cope with the heteroscedasticity. Then, we analyze the predictive power of our model on a one-step ahead exercise of time series sampled over 10 min intervals. Its performances are compared to state-of-the-art models and highlight the interest of including a GARCH specification for density forecasts.

  16. Temporal structure of aggregate power fluctuations in large-eddy simulations of extended wind-farms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stevens, Richard Johannes Antonius Maria; Meneveau, Charles

    2014-01-01

    Fluctuations represent a major challenge for the incorporation of electric power from large wind-farms into power grids. Wind-farm power output fluctuates strongly in time, over various time scales. Understanding these fluctuations, especially their spatio-temporal characteristics, is particularly

  17. Fast Weight Long Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Keller, T. Anderson; Sridhar, Sharath Nittur; Wang, Xin

    2018-01-01

    Associative memory using fast weights is a short-term memory mechanism that substantially improves the memory capacity and time scale of recurrent neural networks (RNNs). As recent studies introduced fast weights only to regular RNNs, it is unknown whether fast weight memory is beneficial to gated RNNs. In this work, we report a significant synergy between long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and fast weight associative memories. We show that this combination, in learning associative retrie...

  18. Fuzzy approach for short term load forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chenthur Pandian, S.; Duraiswamy, K.; Kanagaraj, N. [Electrical and Electronics Engg., K.S. Rangasamy College of Technology, Tiruchengode 637209, Tamil Nadu (India); Christober Asir Rajan, C. [Department of Electrical and Electronics Engineering, Pondicherry Engineering College, Pondicherry (India)

    2006-04-15

    The main objective of short term load forecasting (STLF) is to provide load predictions for generation scheduling, economic load dispatch and security assessment at any time. The STLF is needed to supply necessary information for the system management of day-to-day operations and unit commitment. In this paper, the 'time' and 'temperature' of the day are taken as inputs for the fuzzy logic controller and the 'forecasted load' is the output. The input variable 'time' has been divided into eight triangular membership functions. The membership functions are Mid Night, Dawn, Morning, Fore Noon, After Noon, Evening, Dusk and Night. Another input variable 'temperature' has been divided into four triangular membership functions. They are Below Normal, Normal, Above Normal and High. The 'forecasted load' as output has been divided into eight triangular membership functions. They are Very Low, Low, Sub Normal, Moderate Normal, Normal, Above Normal, High and Very High. Case studies have been carried out for the Neyveli Thermal Power Station Unit-II (NTPS-II) in India. The fuzzy forecasted load values are compared with the conventional forecasted values. The forecasted load closely matches the actual one within +/-3%. (author)

  19. Implementing a short-term loyalty program : case: Bosch Lawn & Garden and the Ventum short-term loyalty program

    OpenAIRE

    Logvinova, Veronika

    2015-01-01

    In 2015, one of the Bosch Home and Garden divisions, Bosch Lawn and Garden, has made a strategic decision to adopt a points-based short-term loyalty program called Ventum LG in the German supermarkets and petrol stations. It was decided that the base of this program will be completed Ventum PT short-term loyalty program which was managed by another division, Bosch Power Tools, and proved to be successful. This thesis aims to evaluate the worthiness of the Ventum LG loyalty program for Bosch L...

  20. Application of VSC-HVDC with Shunt Connected SMES for Compensation of Power Fluctuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linn, Zarchi; Kakigano, Hiroaki; Miura, Yushi; Ise, Toshifumi

    This paper describes the application of VSC-HVDC (High Voltage DC Transmission using Voltage Source Converter) with shunt connected SMES (Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage) for compensation of power fluctuation caused by fluctuating power source such as photovoltaics and wind turbines. The objectives of this proposed system is to smooth out fluctuating power in one terminal side of HVDC in order to avoid causing power system instability and frequency deviation by absorbing or providing power according to the system requirement while another terminal side power is fluctuated. The shunt connected SMES charges and discharges the energy to and from the dc side and it compensates required power of fluctuation to obtain constant power flow in one terminal side of VSC-HVDC system. This system configuration has ability for power system stabilization in the case of power fluctuation from natural energy source. PSCAD/EMTDC simulation is used to evaluate the performance of applied system configuration and control method.

  1. Power injected in dissipative systems and the fluctuation theorem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aumaître, S.; Fauve, S.; McNamara, S.; Poggi, P.

    We consider three examples of dissipative dynamical systems involving many degrees of freedom, driven far from equilibrium by a constant or time dependent forcing. We study the statistical properties of the injected and dissipated power as well as the fluctuations of the total energy of these systems. The three systems under consideration are: a shell model of turbulence, a gas of hard spheres colliding inelastically and excited by a vibrating piston, and a Burridge-Knopoff spring-block model. Although they involve different types of forcing and dissipation, we show that the statistics of the injected power obey the ``fluctuation theorem" demonstrated in the case of time reversible dissipative systems maintained at constant total energy, or in the case of some stochastic processes. Although this may be only a consequence of the theory of large deviations, this allows a possible definition of ``temperature" for a dissipative system out of equilibrium. We consider how this ``temperature" scales with the energy and the number of degrees of freedom in the different systems under consideration.

  2. Short-term memory across eye blinks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irwin, David E

    2014-01-01

    The effect of eye blinks on short-term memory was examined in two experiments. On each trial, participants viewed an initial display of coloured, oriented lines, then after a retention interval they viewed a test display that was either identical or different by one feature. Participants kept their eyes open throughout the retention interval on some blocks of trials, whereas on others they made a single eye blink. Accuracy was measured as a function of the number of items in the display to determine the capacity of short-term memory on blink and no-blink trials. In separate blocks of trials participants were instructed to remember colour only, orientation only, or both colour and orientation. Eye blinks reduced short-term memory capacity by approximately 0.6-0.8 items for both feature and conjunction stimuli. A third, control, experiment showed that a button press during the retention interval had no effect on short-term memory capacity, indicating that the effect of an eye blink was not due to general motoric dual-task interference. Eye blinks might instead reduce short-term memory capacity by interfering with attention-based rehearsal processes.

  3. A novel economy reflecting short-term load forecasting approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Cheng-Ting; Chou, Li-Der

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We combine MA line of TAIEX and SVR to overcome the load demands over-prediction problems caused by the economic downturn. ► The Taiwan island-wide electricity power system was used as the case study. ► Short- to middle-term MA lines of TAIEX are found to be good economic input variables for load forecasting models. - Abstract: The global economic downturn in 2008 and 2009, which was spurred by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, sharply reduced the demand for electricity load. Conventional load-forecasting approaches were unable to respond to sudden changes in the economy, because these approaches do not consider the effect of economic factors. Therefore, the over-prediction problem occurred. To overcome this problem, this paper proposes a novel, economy-reflecting, short-term load forecasting (STLF) approach based on theories of moving average (MA) line of stock index and machine learning. In this approach, the stock indices decision model is designed to reflect fluctuations in the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index (TAIEX) series, which is selected as an optimal input variable in support vector regression load forecasting model at an appropriate timing. The Taiwan island-wide hourly electricity load demands from 2008 to 2010 are used as the case study for performance benchmarking. Results show that the proposed approach with a 60-day MA of the TAIEX as economic learning pattern achieves good forecasting performance. It outperforms the conventional approach by 29.16% on average during economic downturn-affected days. Overall, the proposed approach successfully overcomes the over-prediction problems caused by the economic downturn. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first attempt to apply MA line theory of stock index on STLF.

  4. FFT transformed quantitative EEG analysis of short term memory load.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Yogesh; Singh, Jayvardhan; Sharma, Ratna; Talwar, Anjana

    2015-07-01

    The EEG is considered as building block of functional signaling in the brain. The role of EEG oscillations in human information processing has been intensively investigated. To study the quantitative EEG correlates of short term memory load as assessed through Sternberg memory test. The study was conducted on 34 healthy male student volunteers. The intervention consisted of Sternberg memory test, which runs on a version of the Sternberg memory scanning paradigm software on a computer. Electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded from 19 scalp locations according to 10-20 international system of electrode placement. EEG signals were analyzed offline. To overcome the problems of fixed band system, individual alpha frequency (IAF) based frequency band selection method was adopted. The outcome measures were FFT transformed absolute powers in the six bands at 19 electrode positions. Sternberg memory test served as model of short term memory load. Correlation analysis of EEG during memory task was reflected as decreased absolute power in Upper alpha band in nearly all the electrode positions; increased power in Theta band at Fronto-Temporal region and Lower 1 alpha band at Fronto-Central region. Lower 2 alpha, Beta and Gamma band power remained unchanged. Short term memory load has distinct electroencephalographic correlates resembling the mentally stressed state. This is evident from decreased power in Upper alpha band (corresponding to Alpha band of traditional EEG system) which is representative band of relaxed mental state. Fronto-temporal Theta power changes may reflect the encoding and execution of memory task.

  5. A Simple Hybrid Model for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suseelatha Annamareddi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a simple hybrid model to forecast the electrical load data based on the wavelet transform technique and double exponential smoothing. The historical noisy load series data is decomposed into deterministic and fluctuation components using suitable wavelet coefficient thresholds and wavelet reconstruction method. The variation characteristics of the resulting series are analyzed to arrive at reasonable thresholds that yield good denoising results. The constitutive series are then forecasted using appropriate exponential adaptive smoothing models. A case study performed on California energy market data demonstrates that the proposed method can offer high forecasting precision for very short-term forecasts, considering a time horizon of two weeks.

  6. Short-term forecasting model for aggregated regional hydropower generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monteiro, Claudio; Ramirez-Rosado, Ignacio J.; Fernandez-Jimenez, L. Alfredo

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Original short-term forecasting model for the hourly hydropower generation. • The use of NWP forecasts allows horizons of several days. • New variable to represent the capacity level for generating hydroelectric energy. • The proposed model significantly outperforms the persistence model. - Abstract: This paper presents an original short-term forecasting model of the hourly electric power production for aggregated regional hydropower generation. The inputs of the model are previously recorded values of the aggregated hourly production of hydropower plants and hourly water precipitation forecasts using Numerical Weather Prediction tools, as well as other hourly data (load demand and wind generation). This model is composed of three modules: the first one gives the prediction of the “monthly” hourly power production of the hydropower plants; the second module gives the prediction of hourly power deviation values, which are added to that obtained by the first module to achieve the final forecast of the hourly hydropower generation; the third module allows a periodic adjustment of the prediction of the first module to improve its BIAS error. The model has been applied successfully to the real-life case study of the short-term forecasting of the aggregated hydropower generation in Spain and Portugal (Iberian Peninsula Power System), achieving satisfactory results for the next-day forecasts. The model can be valuable for agents involved in electricity markets and useful for power system operations

  7. Pigeon visual short-term memory directly compared to primates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Anthony A; Elmore, L Caitlin

    2016-02-01

    Three pigeons were trained to remember arrays of 2-6 colored squares and detect which of two squares had changed color to test their visual short-term memory. Procedures (e.g., stimuli, displays, viewing times, delays) were similar to those used to test monkeys and humans. Following extensive training, pigeons performed slightly better than similarly trained monkeys, but both animal species were considerably less accurate than humans with the same array sizes (2, 4 and 6 items). Pigeons and monkeys showed calculated memory capacities of one item or less, whereas humans showed a memory capacity of 2.5 items. Despite the differences in calculated memory capacities, the pigeons' memory results, like those from monkeys and humans, were all well characterized by an inverse power-law function fit to d' values for the five display sizes. This characterization provides a simple, straightforward summary of the fundamental processing of visual short-term memory (how visual short-term memory declines with memory load) that emphasizes species similarities based upon similar functional relationships. By closely matching pigeon testing parameters to those of monkeys and humans, these similar functional relationships suggest similar underlying processes of visual short-term memory in pigeons, monkeys and humans. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Power fluctuation and power loss of wind turbines due to wind shear and tower shadow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Binrong WEN; Sha WEI; Kexiang WEI; Wenxian YANG; Zhike PENG; Fulei CHU

    2017-01-01

    The magnitude and stability of power output are two key indices of wind turbines.This study investigates the effects of wind shear and tower shadow on power output in terms of power fluctuation and power loss to estimate the capacity and quality of the power generated by a wind turbine.First,wind speed models,particularly the wind shear model and the tower shadow model,are described in detail.The widely accepted tower shadow model is modified in view of the cone-shaped towers of modem large-scale wind turbines.Power fluctuation and power loss due to wind shear and tower shadow are analyzed by performing theoretical calculations and case analysis within the framework of a modified version of blade element momentum theory.Results indicate that power fluctuation is mainly caused by tower shadow,whereas power loss is primarily induced by wind shear.Under steady wind conditions,power loss can be divided into wind farm loss and rotor loss.Wind farm loss is constant at 3α(3α-1)R2/(8H2).By contrast,rotor loss is strongly influenced by the wind turbine control strategies and wind speed.That is,when the wind speed is measured in a region where a variable-speed controller works,the rotor loss stabilizes around zero,but when the wind speed is measured in a region where the blade pitch controller works,the rotor loss increases as the wind speed intensifies.The results of this study can serve as a reference for accurate power estimation and strategy development to mitigate the fluctuations in aerodynamic loads and power output due to wind shear and tower shadow.

  9. Grey-identification model based wind power generation short-term prediction%基于灰色-辨识模型的风电功率短期预测

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2013-01-01

      为了准确预测风电机组的输出功率,针对实际风场,给出一种基于灰色 GM(1,1)模型和辨识模型的风电功率预测建模方法,采用残差修正的方法对风速进行预测,得出准确的风速预测序列。同时为了提高风电功率预测的精度,引入 FIR-MA迭代辨识模型,从分段函数的角度对风电场实际风速-风电功率曲线进行拟合,取得合适的 FIR-MA 模型。利用该模型对额定容量为850 kW 的风电机组进行建模,采用平均绝对误差和均方根误差,以及单点误差作为评价指标,与风电场的实测数据进行比较分析。仿真结果表明,基于灰色-辨识模型的风电机组输出功率预测方法是有效和实用的,该模型能够很好地预测风电机组的实时输出功率,从而提高风电场输出功率预测的精确性。%To predict the output power of wind turbine accurately, based on the GM (1, 1) model and the identification method, a wind power generation short-term prediction method is presented for the real wind farm. The revision of residual error is applied to forecast the wind speed and get the accurate predicted wind speed series. Then, in order to increase the prediction precision of wind power, the FIR-MA iterative identification model is adopted to fit the real relationship between sequential wind speed and wind power and get the proper FIR-MA model. By modeling the wind turbine whose rated capacity is 850 kW, this paper compares the predicted wind generation power with the observed data using mean absolute percentage error, root mean square error and single point error as its evaluation indexes. The simulation shows the effectiveness and the practical applicability of the presented method, which can predict the real time generation power of wind turbineness and raise the accuracy of the wind power prediction. Finally, the simulation using the actual data from wind farm in China proves the efficiency of the

  10. Visual Short-Term Memory Complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

    Several recent studies have explored the nature and limits of visual short-term memory (VSTM) (e.g. Luck & Vogel, 1997). A general VSTM capacity limit of about 3 to 4 letters has been found, thus confirming results from earlier studies (e.g. Cattell, 1885; Sperling, 1960). However, Alvarez...

  11. Prediction of power fluctuation classes for photovoltaic installations and potential benefits of dynamic reserve allocation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijhuis, M.; Rawn, B.G.; Gibescu, M.

    2014-01-01

    During partly cloudy conditions, the power delivered by a photovoltaic array can easily fluctuate by three quarters of its rated power in 10 s. Fluctuations from photovoltaics of this size and on this time scale may necessitate adding an additional component to power system secondary and primary

  12. Short-term Memory of Deep RNN

    OpenAIRE

    Gallicchio, Claudio

    2018-01-01

    The extension of deep learning towards temporal data processing is gaining an increasing research interest. In this paper we investigate the properties of state dynamics developed in successive levels of deep recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in terms of short-term memory abilities. Our results reveal interesting insights that shed light on the nature of layering as a factor of RNN design. Noticeably, higher layers in a hierarchically organized RNN architecture results to be inherently biased ...

  13. A short-term neural network memory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Morris, R.J.T.; Wong, W.S.

    1988-12-01

    Neural network memories with storage prescriptions based on Hebb's rule are known to collapse as more words are stored. By requiring that the most recently stored word be remembered precisely, a new simple short-term neutral network memory is obtained and its steady state capacity analyzed and simulated. Comparisons are drawn with Hopfield's method, the delta method of Widrow and Hoff, and the revised marginalist model of Mezard, Nadal, and Toulouse.

  14. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koreneff, G.; Seppaelae, A.; Lehtonen, M.; Kekkonen, V.; Laitinen, E.; Haekli, J.; Antila, E.

    1998-01-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  15. A method for short term electricity spot price forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koreneff, G; Seppaelae, A; Lehtonen, M; Kekkonen, V [VTT Energy, Espoo (Finland); Laitinen, E; Haekli, J [Vaasa Univ. (Finland); Antila, E [ABB Transmit Oy (Finland)

    1998-08-01

    In Finland, the electricity market was de-regulated in November 1995. For the electricity purchase of power companies this has caused big changes, since the old tariff based contracts of bulk power supply have been replaced by negotiated bilateral short term contracts and by power purchase from the spot market. In the spot market, in turn, there are at the present two strong actors: The electricity exchange of Finland and the Nordic power pool which is run by the Swedish and Norwegian companies. Today, the power companies in Finland have short term trade with both of the electricity exchanges. The aim of this chapter is to present methods for spot price forecasting in the electricity exchange. The main focus is given to the Finnish circumstances. In the beginning of the presentation, the practices of the electricity exchange of Finland are described, and a brief presentation is given on the different contracts, or electricity products, available in the spot market. For comparison, the practices of the Nordic electricity exchange are also outlined. A time series technique for spot price forecasting is presented. The structure of the model is presented, and its validity is tested using real case data obtained from the Finnish power market. The spot price forecasting model is a part of a computer system for distribution energy management (DEM) in a de-regulated power market

  16. Is visual short-term memory depthful?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reeves, Adam; Lei, Quan

    2014-03-01

    Does visual short-term memory (VSTM) depend on depth, as it might be if information was stored in more than one depth layer? Depth is critical in natural viewing and might be expected to affect retention, but whether this is so is currently unknown. Cued partial reports of letter arrays (Sperling, 1960) were measured up to 700 ms after display termination. Adding stereoscopic depth hardly affected VSTM capacity or decay inferred from total errors. The pattern of transposition errors (letters reported from an uncued row) was almost independent of depth and cue delay. We conclude that VSTM is effectively two-dimensional. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Non-Gaussian power grid frequency fluctuations characterized by Lévy-stable laws and superstatistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Benjamin; Beck, Christian; Aihara, Kazuyuki; Witthaut, Dirk; Timme, Marc

    2018-02-01

    Multiple types of fluctuations impact the collective dynamics of power grids and thus challenge their robust operation. Fluctuations result from processes as different as dynamically changing demands, energy trading and an increasing share of renewable power feed-in. Here we analyse principles underlying the dynamics and statistics of power grid frequency fluctuations. Considering frequency time series for a range of power grids, including grids in North America, Japan and Europe, we find a strong deviation from Gaussianity best described as Lévy-stable and q-Gaussian distributions. We present a coarse framework to analytically characterize the impact of arbitrary noise distributions, as well as a superstatistical approach that systematically interprets heavy tails and skewed distributions. We identify energy trading as a substantial contribution to today's frequency fluctuations and effective damping of the grid as a controlling factor enabling reduction of fluctuation risks, with enhanced effects for small power grids.

  18. Maxwell's Demon at work: Two types of Bose condensate fluctuations in power-law traps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossmann, S; Holthaus, M

    1997-11-10

    After discussing the idea underlying the Maxwell's Demon ensemble, we employ this ensemble for calculating fluctuations of ideal Bose gas condensates in traps with power-law single-particle energy spectra. Two essentially different cases have to be distinguished. If the heat capacity is continuous at the condensation point, the fluctuations of the number of condensate particles vanish linearly with temperature, independent of the trap characteristics. In this case, microcanonical and canonical fluctuations are practically indistinguishable. If the heat capacity is discontinuous, the fluctuations vanish algebraically with temperature, with an exponent determined by the trap, and the micro-canonical fluctuations are lower than their canonical counterparts.

  19. Short term depression unmasks the ghost frequency.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tjeerd V Olde Scheper

    Full Text Available Short Term Plasticity (STP has been shown to exist extensively in synapses throughout the brain. Its function is more or less clear in the sense that it alters the probability of synaptic transmission at short time scales. However, it is still unclear what effect STP has on the dynamics of neural networks. We show, using a novel dynamic STP model, that Short Term Depression (STD can affect the phase of frequency coded input such that small networks can perform temporal signal summation and determination with high accuracy. We show that this property of STD can readily solve the problem of the ghost frequency, the perceived pitch of a harmonic complex in absence of the base frequency. Additionally, we demonstrate that this property can explain dynamics in larger networks. By means of two models, one of chopper neurons in the Ventral Cochlear Nucleus and one of a cortical microcircuit with inhibitory Martinotti neurons, it is shown that the dynamics in these microcircuits can reliably be reproduced using STP. Our model of STP gives important insights into the potential roles of STP in self-regulation of cortical activity and long-range afferent input in neuronal microcircuits.

  20. Short-term energy outlook, July 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-07-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares The Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly for distribution on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. In addition, printed versions of the report are available to subscribers in January, April, July and October. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from July 1998 through December 1999. Values for second quarter of 1998 data, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the July 1998 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  1. Short-term energy outlook, January 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares the Short-Term Energy Outlook (energy supply, demand, and price projections) monthly. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from January 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the fourth quarter 1998, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the January 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 28 figs., 19 tabs.

  2. Measuring Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Brochure provides and overview of the analysis and results. Readers interested in an in-depth discussion of methodology are referred to the MOSES Working Paper.

  3. Optimal shifting of Photovoltaic and load fluctuations from fuel cell and electrolyzer to lead acid battery in a Photovoltaic/hydrogen standalone power system for improved performance and life time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesfahunegn, S. G.; Ulleberg, Ø.; Vie, P. J. S.; Undeland, T. M.

    Cost reduction is very critical in the pursuit of realizing more competitive clean and sustainable energy systems. In line with this goal a control method that enables minimization of the cost associated with performance and life time degradation of fuel cell and electrolyzer, and cost of battery replacement in PV/hydrogen standalone power systems is developed. The method uses the advantage of existing peak shaving battery to suppress short-term PV and load fluctuations while reducing impact on the cycle life of the battery itself. This is realized by diverting short-term cyclic charge/discharge events induced by PV/load power fluctuations to the upper band of the battery state of charge regime while operating the fuel cell and electrolyzer systems along stable (smooth) power curves. Comparative studies of the developed method with two other reference cases demonstrate that the proposed method fares better with respect to defined performance indices as fluctuation suppression rate and mean state of charge. Modeling of power electronics and design of controllers used in the study are also briefly discussed in Appendix A.

  4. Short Term Airing by Natural Ventilation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heiselberg, Per; Perino, M.

    2010-01-01

    The need to improve the energy efficiency of buildings requires new and more efficient ventilation systems. It has been demonstrated that innovative operating concepts that make use of natural ventilation seem to be more appreciated by occupants. Among the available ventilation strategies...... that are currently available, buoyancy driven, single-sided natural ventilation has proved to be very effective and can provide high air change rates for temperature and Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) control. However, to promote a wider distribution of these systems an improvement in the knowledge of their working...... airflow rate, ventilation efficiency, thermal comfort and dynamic temperature conditions. A suitable laboratory test rig was developed to perform extensive experimental analyses of the phenomenon under controlled and repeatable conditions. The results showed that short-term window airing is very effective...

  5. Short-term forecasting of internal migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frees, E W

    1993-11-01

    A new methodological approach to the forecasting of short-term trends in internal migration in the United States is introduced. "Panel-data (or longitudinal-data) models are used to represent the relationship between destination-specific out-migration and several explanatory variables. The introduction of this methodology into the migration literature is possible because of some new and improved databases developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.... Data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are used to investigate the incorporation of exogenous factors as variables in the model." The exogenous factors considered include employment and unemployment, income, population size of state, and distance between states. The author concludes that "when one...includes additional parameters that are estimable in longitudinal-data models, it turns out that there is little additional information in the exogenous factors that is useful for forecasting." excerpt

  6. Economics of solar energy: Short term costing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klee, H.

    The solar economics based on life cycle costs are refuted as both imaginary and irrelevant. It is argued that predicting rates of inflation and fuel escalation, expected life, maintenance costs, and legislation over the next ten to twenty years is pure guesswork. Furthermore, given the high mobility level of the U.S. population, the average consumer is skeptical of long run arguments which will pay returns only to the next owners. In the short term cost analysis, the house is sold prior to the end of the expected life of the system. The cash flow of the seller and buyer are considered. All the relevant factors, including the federal tax credit and the added value of the house because of the solar system are included.

  7. Short-term plasticity in auditory cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jääskeläinen, Iiro P; Ahveninen, Jyrki; Belliveau, John W; Raij, Tommi; Sams, Mikko

    2007-12-01

    Converging lines of evidence suggest that auditory system short-term plasticity can enable several perceptual and cognitive functions that have been previously considered as relatively distinct phenomena. Here we review recent findings suggesting that auditory stimulation, auditory selective attention and cross-modal effects of visual stimulation each cause transient excitatory and (surround) inhibitory modulations in the auditory cortex. These modulations might adaptively tune hierarchically organized sound feature maps of the auditory cortex (e.g. tonotopy), thus filtering relevant sounds during rapidly changing environmental and task demands. This could support auditory sensory memory, pre-attentive detection of sound novelty, enhanced perception during selective attention, influence of visual processing on auditory perception and longer-term plastic changes associated with perceptual learning.

  8. Localized Spectral Analysis of Fluctuating Power Generation from Solar Energy Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johan Nijs

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Fluctuations in solar irradiance are a serious obstacle for the future large-scale application of photovoltaics. Occurring regularly with the passage of clouds, they can cause unexpected power variations and introduce voltage dips to the power distribution system. This paper proposes the treatment of such fluctuating time series as realizations of a stochastic, locally stationary, wavelet process. Its local spectral density can be estimated from empirical data by means of wavelet periodograms. The wavelet approach allows the analysis of the amplitude of fluctuations per characteristic scale, hence, persistence of the fluctuation. Furthermore, conclusions can be drawn on the frequency of occurrence of fluctuations of different scale. This localized spectral analysis was applied to empirical data of two successive years. The approach is especially useful for network planning and load management of power distribution systems containing a high density of photovoltaic generation units.

  9. Simulation of power fluctuation of wind farms based on frequency domain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lin, Jin; Sun, Yuanzhang; Li, Guojie

    2011-01-01

    , however, is incapable of completely explaining the physical mechanism of randomness of power fluctuation. To remedy such a situation, fluctuation modeling based on the frequency domain is proposed. The frequency domain characteristics of stochastic fluctuation on large wind farms are studied using...... the power spectral density of wind speed, the frequency domain model of a wind power generator and the information on weather and geography of the wind farms. The correctness and effectiveness of the model are verified by comparing the measurement data with simulation results of a certain wind farm. © 2011...

  10. Evaluation of Short Term Memory Span Function In Children

    OpenAIRE

    Barış ERGÜL; Arzu ALTIN YAVUZ; Ebru GÜNDOĞAN AŞIK

    2016-01-01

    Although details of the information encoded in the short-term memory where it is stored temporarily be recorded in the working memory in the next stage. Repeating the information mentally makes it remain in memory for a long time. Studies investigating the relationship between short-term memory and reading skills that are carried out to examine the relationship between short-term memory processes and reading comprehension. In this study information coming to short-term memory and the factors ...

  11. A fuzzy inference model for short-term load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mamlook, Rustum; Badran, Omar; Abdulhadi, Emad

    2009-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the short-term load forecasting (STLF) in power system operations. It provides load prediction for generation scheduling and unit commitment decisions, and therefore precise load forecasting plays an important role in reducing the generation cost and the spinning reserve capacity. Short-term electricity demand forecasting (i.e., the prediction of hourly loads (demand)) is one of the most important tools by which an electric utility/company plans, dispatches the loading of generating units in order to meet system demand. The accuracy of the dispatching system, which is derived from the accuracy of the forecasting algorithm used, will determine the economics of the operation of the power system. The inaccuracy or large error in the forecast simply means that load matching is not optimized and consequently the generation and transmission systems are not being operated in an efficient manner. In the present study, a proposed methodology has been introduced to decrease the forecasted error and the processing time by using fuzzy logic controller on an hourly base. Therefore, it predicts the effect of different conditional parameters (i.e., weather, time, historical data, and random disturbances) on load forecasting in terms of fuzzy sets during the generation process. These parameters are chosen with respect to their priority and importance. The forecasted values obtained by fuzzy method were compared with the conventionally forecasted ones. The results showed that the STLF of the fuzzy implementation have more accuracy and better outcomes

  12. In Search of Decay in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, Marc G.; Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.

    2009-01-01

    Is forgetting in the short term due to decay with the mere passage of time, interference from other memoranda, or both? Past research on short-term memory has revealed some evidence for decay and a plethora of evidence showing that short-term memory is worsened by interference. However, none of these studies has directly contrasted decay and…

  13. Mitigation of wind power fluctuations in smart grids

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haan, de J.E.S.; Frunt, J.; Kling, W.L.

    2010-01-01

    Future's penetration of more distributed generation will have an effect on the power system's stability and controllability. In general, wind power as a distributed generator does not have inertial response and does not supply control power. A third characteristic of wind power is that it is not

  14. Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kornilov Vladimir

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Forecasting of electric load (EL is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region.

  15. Short-Term Saved Leave Scheme

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    As announced at the meeting of the Standing Concertation Committee (SCC) on 26 June 2007 and in http://Bulletin No. 28/2007, the existing Saved Leave Scheme will be discontinued as of 31 December 2007. Staff participating in the Scheme will shortly receive a contract amendment stipulating the end of financial contributions compensated by save leave. Leave already accumulated on saved leave accounts can continue to be taken in accordance with the rules applicable to the current scheme. A new system of saved leave will enter into force on 1 January 2008 and will be the subject of a new implementation procedure entitled "Short-term saved leave scheme" dated 1 January 2008. At its meeting on 4 December 2007, the SCC agreed to recommend the Director-General to approve this procedure, which can be consulted on the HR Department’s website at the following address: https://cern.ch/hr-services/services-Ben/sls_shortterm.asp All staff wishing to participate in the new scheme a...

  16. Short-Term Saved Leave Scheme

    CERN Multimedia

    HR Department

    2007-01-01

    As announced at the meeting of the Standing Concertation Committee (SCC) on 26 June 2007 and in http://Bulletin No. 28/2007, the existing Saved Leave Scheme will be discontinued as of 31 December 2007. Staff participating in the Scheme will shortly receive a contract amendment stipulating the end of financial contributions compensated by save leave. Leave already accumulated on saved leave accounts can continue to be taken in accordance with the rules applicable to the current scheme. A new system of saved leave will enter into force on 1 January 2008 and will be the subject of a new im-plementation procedure entitled "Short-term saved leave scheme" dated 1 January 2008. At its meeting on 4 December 2007, the SCC agreed to recommend the Director-General to approve this procedure, which can be consulted on the HR Department’s website at the following address: https://cern.ch/hr-services/services-Ben/sls_shortterm.asp All staff wishing to participate in the new scheme ...

  17. Short-term energy outlook, April 1999

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-04-01

    The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from April 1999 through December 2000. Data values for the first quarter 1999, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the April 1999 version of the Short-Term Integrated forecasting system (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. By varying the assumptions, alternative cases are produced by using the STIFS model. 25 figs., 19 tabs.

  18. Continuity of Landsat observations: Short term considerations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulder, Michael A.; White, Joanne C.; Masek, Jeffery G.; Dwyer, John L.; Roy, David P.

    2011-01-01

    As of writing in mid-2010, both Landsat-5 and -7 continue to function, with sufficient fuel to enable data collection until the launch of the Landsat Data Continuity Mission (LDCM) scheduled for December of 2012. Failure of one or both of Landsat-5 or -7 may result in a lack of Landsat data for a period of time until the 2012 launch. Although the potential risk of a component failure increases the longer the sensor's design life is exceeded, the possible gap in Landsat data acquisition is reduced with each passing day and the risk of Landsat imagery being unavailable diminishes for all except a handful of applications that are particularly data demanding. Advances in Landsat data compositing and fusion are providing opportunities to address issues associated with Landsat-7 SLC-off imagery and to mitigate a potential acquisition gap through the integration of imagery from different sensors. The latter will likely also provide short-term, regional solutions to application-specific needs for the continuity of Landsat-like observations. Our goal in this communication is not to minimize the community's concerns regarding a gap in Landsat observations, but rather to clarify how the current situation has evolved and provide an up-to-date understanding of the circumstances, implications, and mitigation options related to a potential gap in the Landsat data record.

  19. Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, P.; Govekar, E.; Grabec, I.

    2007-01-01

    Energy forecasting requirements for Slovenia's natural gas market were investigated along with the cycles of natural gas consumption. This paper presented a short-term natural gas forecasting approach where the daily, weekly and yearly gas consumption were analyzed and the information obtained was incorporated into the forecasting model for hourly forecasting for the next day. The natural gas market depends on forecasting in order to optimize the leasing of storage capacities. As such, natural gas distribution companies have an economic incentive to accurately forecast their future gas consumption. The authors proposed a forecasting model with the following properties: two submodels for the winter and summer seasons; input variables including past consumption data, weather data, weather forecasts and basic cycle indexes; and, a hierarchical forecasting structure in which a daily model was used as the basis, with the hourly forecast obtained by modeling the relative daily profile. This proposed method was illustrated by a forecasting example for Slovenia's natural gas market. 11 refs., 11 figs

  20. Why do short term workers have high mortality?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kolstad, Henrik; Olsen, Jørn

    1999-01-01

    or violence, the rate ratios for short term employment were 2.30 (95% Cl 1.74-3.06) and 1.86 (95% Cl 1.35-2.56), respectively. An unhealthy lifestyle may also be a determinant of short term employment. While it is possible in principle to adjust for lifestyle factors if proper data are collected, the health......Increased mortality is often reported among workers in short term employment. This may indicate either a health-related selection process or the presence of different lifestyle or social conditions among short term workers. The authors studied these two aspects of short term employment among 16...

  1. A study of power fluctuations in a flip fuel reactor using the technique of noise analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Randall, J D; Wood, G C; Edwards, M A [Texas A and M University (United States)

    1974-07-01

    The Nuclear Science Center Reactor at Texas A and M University has experienced minor power fluctuations when operating at or near 1 megawatt. A noise analysis system was developed to investigate these fluctuations assuming that void formation, primarily due to nucleate boiling, was the cause. Experiments were carried out to correlate boiling noise with power level, fission product poisoning, and pool temperature. Results show that void formation in the core is the probable cause of the fluctuations with the onset of boiling occurring at 400 Kw. Data was also obtained that indicated the presence of boiling in a standard TRIGA core. (author)

  2. An accident diagnosis algorithm using long short-term memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaemin Yang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Accident diagnosis is one of the complex tasks for nuclear power plant (NPP operators. In abnormal or emergency situations, the diagnostic activity of the NPP states is burdensome though necessary. Numerous computer-based methods and operator support systems have been suggested to address this problem. Among them, the recurrent neural network (RNN has performed well at analyzing time series data. This study proposes an algorithm for accident diagnosis using long short-term memory (LSTM, which is a kind of RNN, which improves the limitation for time reflection. The algorithm consists of preprocessing, the LSTM network, and postprocessing. In the LSTM-based algorithm, preprocessed input variables are calculated to output the accident diagnosis results. The outputs are also postprocessed using softmax to determine the ranking of accident diagnosis results with probabilities. This algorithm was trained using a compact nuclear simulator for several accidents: a loss of coolant accident, a steam generator tube rupture, and a main steam line break. The trained algorithm was also tested to demonstrate the feasibility of diagnosing NPP accidents. Keywords: Accident Diagnosis, Long Short-term Memory, Recurrent Neural Network, Softmax

  3. Robust Short-Term Memory without Synaptic Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J.; Torres, Joaquín J.

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can – as a gradual modification of synaptic weights – since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds). The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings. PMID:23349664

  4. Robust short-term memory without synaptic learning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Johnson

    Full Text Available Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can--as a gradual modification of synaptic weights--since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds. The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings.

  5. Robust short-term memory without synaptic learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J; Torres, Joaquín J

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can--as a gradual modification of synaptic weights--since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining information for a short time (a few seconds). The mechanism is robust to different network topologies and kinds of neural model. This could constitute a viable means available to the brain for sensory and/or short-term memory with no need of synaptic learning. Relevant phenomena described by neurobiology and psychology, such as local synchronization of synaptic inputs and power-law statistics of forgetting avalanches, emerge naturally from this mechanism, and we suggest possible experiments to test its viability in more biological settings.

  6. Short term benefits for laparoscopic colorectal resection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwenk, W; Haase, O; Neudecker, J; Müller, J M

    2005-07-20

    Colorectal resections are common surgical procedures all over the world. Laparoscopic colorectal surgery is technically feasible in a considerable amount of patients under elective conditions. Several short-term benefits of the laparoscopic approach to colorectal resection (less pain, less morbidity, improved reconvalescence and better quality of life) have been proposed. This review compares laparoscopic and conventional colorectal resection with regards to possible benefits of the laparoscopic method in the short-term postoperative period (up to 3 months post surgery). We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CancerLit, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials for the years 1991 to 2004. We also handsearched the following journals from 1991 to 2004: British Journal of Surgery, Archives of Surgery, Annals of Surgery, Surgery, World Journal of Surgery, Disease of Colon and Rectum, Surgical Endoscopy, International Journal of Colorectal Disease, Langenbeck's Archives of Surgery, Der Chirurg, Zentralblatt für Chirurgie, Aktuelle Chirurgie/Viszeralchirurgie. Handsearch of abstracts from the following society meetings from 1991 to 2004: American College of Surgeons, American Society of Colorectal Surgeons, Royal Society of Surgeons, British Assocation of Coloproctology, Surgical Association of Endoscopic Surgeons, European Association of Endoscopic Surgeons, Asian Society of Endoscopic Surgeons. All randomised-controlled trial were included regardless of the language of publication. No- or pseudorandomised trials as well as studies that followed patient's preferences towards one of the two interventions were excluded, but listed separately. RCT presented as only an abstract were excluded. Results were extracted from papers by three observers independently on a predefined data sheet. Disagreements were solved by discussion. 'REVMAN 4.2' was used for statistical analysis. Mean differences (95% confidence intervals) were used for analysing continuous variables. If

  7. Wind model for low frequency power fluctuations in offshore wind farms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vigueras-Rodríguez, A.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

    2010-01-01

    of hours, taking into account the spectral correlation between different wind turbines. The modelling is supported by measurements from two large wind farms, namely Nysted and Horns Rev. Measurements from individual wind turbines and meteorological masts are used. Finally, the models are integrated......This paper investigates the correlation between the frequency components of the wind speed Power Spectral Density. The results extend an already existing power fluctuation model that can simulate power fluctuations of wind power on areas up to several kilometers and for time scales up to a couple...

  8. The Relationship of Cognitive Performance and the Theta-Alpha Power Ratio Is Age-Dependent: An EEG Study of Short Term Memory and Reasoning during Task and Resting-State in Healthy Young and Old Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet P. Trammell

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The Theta-Alpha ratio (TAR is known to differ based upon age and cognitive ability, with pathological electroencephalography (EEG patterns routinely found within neurodegenerative disorders of older adults. We hypothesized that cognitive ability would predict EEG metrics differently within healthy young and old adults, and that healthy old adults not showing age-expected EEG activity may be more likely to demonstrate cognitive deficits relative to old adults showing these expected changes.Methods: In 216 EEG blocks collected in 16 young and 20 old adults during rest (eyes open, eyes closed and cognitive tasks (short-term memory [STM]; matrix reasoning [RM; Raven's matrices], models assessed the contributing roles of cognitive ability, age, and task in predicting the TAR. A general linear mixed-effects regression model was used to model this relationship, including interaction effects to test whether increased cognitive ability predicted TAR differently for young and old adults at rest and during cognitive tasks.Results: The relationship between cognitive ability and the TAR across all blocks showed age-dependency, and cognitive performance at the CZ midline location predicted the TAR measure when accounting for the effect of age (p < 0.05, chi-square test of nested models. Age significantly interacted with STM performance in predicting the TAR (p < 0.05; increases in STM were associated with increased TAR in young adults, but not in old adults. RM showed similar interaction effects with aging and TAR (p < 0.10.Conclusion: EEG correlates of cognitive ability are age-dependent. Adults who did not show age-related EEG changes were more likely to exhibit cognitive deficits than those who showed age-related changes. This suggests that healthy aging should produce moderate changes in Alpha and TAR measures, and the absence of such changes signals impaired cognitive functioning.

  9. Hydroxychloroquine retinopathy after short-term therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, Brandon N; Chun, Dal W

    2014-01-01

    To report an unusual case of hydroxychloroquine toxicity after short-term therapy. Observational case report. A 56-year-old woman presented to the Ophthalmology Clinic at Walter Reed Army Medical Center (WRAMC) with a 6-month history of gradually decreasing vision in both eyes. The patient had been taking hydroxychloroquine for the preceding 48 months for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis. Examination of the posterior segment revealed bilateral "bull's eye" macular lesions. Fundus autofluorescence revealed hyperfluorescence of well-defined bull's eye lesions in both eyes. Optical coherence tomography revealed corresponding parafoveal atrophy with a loss of the retinal inner segment/outer segment junction. Humphrey visual field 10-2 white showed significant central and paracentral defects with a generalized depression. The patient was on a standard dose of 400 mg daily, which was above her ideal dose. The patient had no history of kidney or liver dysfunction. There were no known risk factors but there were several possible confounding factors. The patient was started on high-dose nabumetone, a nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug, at the same time she was started on hydroxychloroquine. She also reported taking occasional ibuprofen. Retinal toxicity from chloroquine has been recognized for decades with later reports showing retinopathy from long-term hydroxychloroquine (Plaquenil) use for the treatment of antiinflammatory diseases. Hydroxychloroquine is now widely used and retinal toxicity is relatively uncommon. However, it can cause serious vision loss and is usually irreversible. The risk of hydroxychloroquine toxicity rises to nearly 1% with a total cumulative dose of 1,000 g, which is ∼5 years to 7 years of normal use. Toxicity is rare under this dose. For this reason, the American Academy of Ophthalmology has revised its recommendations such that annual screenings begin 5 years after therapy with hydroxychloroquine has begun unless there are known risk

  10. Short term scheduling of multiple grid-parallel PEM fuel cells for microgrid applications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    El-Sharkh, M.Y.; Rahman, A.; Alam, M.S. [Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of South Alabama, Mobile, AL 36688 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    This paper presents a short term scheduling scheme for multiple grid-parallel PEM fuel cell power plants (FCPPs) connected to supply electrical and thermal energy to a microgrid community. As in the case of regular power plants, short term scheduling of FCPP is also a cost-based optimization problem that includes the cost of operation, thermal power recovery, and the power trade with the local utility grid. Due to the ability of the microgrid community to trade power with the local grid, the power balance constraint is not applicable, other constraints like the real power operating limits of the FCPP, and minimum up and down time are therefore used. To solve the short term scheduling problem of the FCPPs, a hybrid technique based on evolutionary programming (EP) and hill climbing technique (HC) is used. The EP is used to estimate the optimal schedule and the output power from each FCPP. The HC technique is used to monitor the feasibility of the solution during the search process. The short term scheduling problem is used to estimate the schedule and the electrical and thermal power output of five FCPPs supplying a maximum power of 300 kW. (author)

  11. A New Control Method to Mitigate Power Fluctuations for Grid Integrated PV/Wind Hybrid Power System Using Ultracapacitors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayalakshmi, N. S.; Gaonkar, D. N.

    2016-08-01

    The output power obtained from solar-wind hybrid system fluctuates with changes in weather conditions. These power fluctuations cause adverse effects on the voltage, frequency and transient stability of the utility grid. In this paper, a control method is presented for power smoothing of grid integrated PV/wind hybrid system using ultracapacitors in a DC coupled structure. The power fluctuations of hybrid system are mitigated and smoothed power is supplied to the utility grid. In this work both photovoltaic (PV) panels and the wind generator are controlled to operate at their maximum power point. The grid side inverter control strategy presented in this paper maintains DC link voltage constant while injecting power to the grid at unity power factor considering different operating conditions. Actual solar irradiation and wind speed data are used in this study to evaluate the performance of the developed system using MATLAB/Simulink software. The simulation results show that output power fluctuations of solar-wind hybrid system can be significantly mitigated using the ultracapacitor based storage system.

  12. Model predictive control for power fluctuation supression in hybrid wind/PV/battery systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    You, Shi; Liu, Zongyu; Zong, Yi

    2015-01-01

    A hybrid energy system, the combination of wind turbines, PV panels and battery storage with effective control mechanism, represents a promising solution to the power fluctuation problem when integrating renewable energy resources (RES) into conventional power systems. This paper proposes a model...

  13. The Role of Short-term Consolidation in Memory Persistence

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy J. Ricker

    2015-01-01

    Short-term memory, often described as working memory, is one of the most fundamental information processing systems of the human brain. Short-term memory function is necessary for language, spatial navigation, problem solving, and many other daily activities. Given its importance to cognitive function, understanding the architecture of short-term memory is of crucial importance to understanding human behavior. Recent work from several laboratories investigating the entry of information into s...

  14. Stability of synchrony against local intermittent fluctuations in tree-like power grids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Auer, Sabine; Hellmann, Frank; Krause, Marie; Kurths, Jürgen

    2017-12-01

    90% of all Renewable Energy Power in Germany is installed in tree-like distribution grids. Intermittent power fluctuations from such sources introduce new dynamics into the lower grid layers. At the same time, distributed resources will have to contribute to stabilize the grid against these fluctuations in the future. In this paper, we model a system of distributed resources as oscillators on a tree-like, lossy power grid and its ability to withstand desynchronization from localized intermittent renewable infeed. We find a remarkable interplay of the network structure and the position of the node at which the fluctuations are fed in. An important precondition for our findings is the presence of losses in distribution grids. Then, the most network central node splits the network into branches with different influence on network stability. Troublemakers, i.e., nodes at which fluctuations are especially exciting the grid, tend to be downstream branches with high net power outflow. For low coupling strength, we also find branches of nodes vulnerable to fluctuations anywhere in the network. These network regions can be predicted at high confidence using an eigenvector based network measure taking the turbulent nature of perturbations into account. While we focus here on tree-like networks, the observed effects also appear, albeit less pronounced, for weakly meshed grids. On the other hand, the observed effects disappear for lossless power grids often studied in the complex system literature.

  15. Short-Term Memory and Aphasia: From Theory to Treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkina, Irene; Rosenberg, Samantha; Kalinyak-Fliszar, Michelene; Martin, Nadine

    2017-02-01

    This article reviews existing research on the interactions between verbal short-term memory and language processing impairments in aphasia. Theoretical models of short-term memory are reviewed, starting with a model assuming a separation between short-term memory and language, and progressing to models that view verbal short-term memory as a cognitive requirement of language processing. The review highlights a verbal short-term memory model derived from an interactive activation model of word retrieval. This model holds that verbal short-term memory encompasses the temporary activation of linguistic knowledge (e.g., semantic, lexical, and phonological features) during language production and comprehension tasks. Empirical evidence supporting this model, which views short-term memory in the context of the processes it subserves, is outlined. Studies that use a classic measure of verbal short-term memory (i.e., number of words/digits correctly recalled in immediate serial recall) as well as those that use more intricate measures (e.g., serial position effects in immediate serial recall) are discussed. Treatment research that uses verbal short-term memory tasks in an attempt to improve language processing is then summarized, with a particular focus on word retrieval. A discussion of the limitations of current research and possible future directions concludes the review. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

  16. The Mind and Brain of Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Jonides, John; Lewis, Richard L.; Nee, Derek Evan; Lustig, Cindy A.; Berman, Marc G.; Moore, Katherine Sledge

    2008-01-01

    The past 10 years have brought near-revolutionary changes in psychological theories about short-term memory, with similarly great advances in the neurosciences. Here, we critically examine the major psychological theories (the “mind”) of short-term memory and how they relate to evidence about underlying brain mechanisms. We focus on three features that must be addressed by any satisfactory theory of short-term memory. First, we examine the evidence for the architecture of short-term memory, w...

  17. Prospective testing of Coulomb short-term earthquake forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, D. D.; Kagan, Y. Y.; Schorlemmer, D.; Zechar, J. D.; Wang, Q.; Wong, K.

    2009-12-01

    Earthquake induced Coulomb stresses, whether static or dynamic, suddenly change the probability of future earthquakes. Models to estimate stress and the resulting seismicity changes could help to illuminate earthquake physics and guide appropriate precautionary response. But do these models have improved forecasting power compared to empirical statistical models? The best answer lies in prospective testing in which a fully specified model, with no subsequent parameter adjustments, is evaluated against future earthquakes. The Center of Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) facilitates such prospective testing of earthquake forecasts, including several short term forecasts. Formulating Coulomb stress models for formal testing involves several practical problems, mostly shared with other short-term models. First, earthquake probabilities must be calculated after each “perpetrator” earthquake but before the triggered earthquakes, or “victims”. The time interval between a perpetrator and its victims may be very short, as characterized by the Omori law for aftershocks. CSEP evaluates short term models daily, and allows daily updates of the models. However, lots can happen in a day. An alternative is to test and update models on the occurrence of each earthquake over a certain magnitude. To make such updates rapidly enough and to qualify as prospective, earthquake focal mechanisms, slip distributions, stress patterns, and earthquake probabilities would have to be made by computer without human intervention. This scheme would be more appropriate for evaluating scientific ideas, but it may be less useful for practical applications than daily updates. Second, triggered earthquakes are imperfectly recorded following larger events because their seismic waves are buried in the coda of the earlier event. To solve this problem, testing methods need to allow for “censoring” of early aftershock data, and a quantitative model for detection threshold as a function of

  18. Effect of active warm-up duration on morning short-term maximal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Purpose: To examine the effect of active warm-up duration on short-term maximal performance assessed during Ramadan in the morning. Methods: Twelve healthy active men performed four Wingate tests for measurement of peak power and mean power before and during Ramadan at 09:00 a.m. The tests were performed ...

  19. A theory of power-law distributions in financial market fluctuations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabaix, Xavier; Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran; Plerou, Vasiliki; Stanley, H Eugene

    2003-05-15

    Insights into the dynamics of a complex system are often gained by focusing on large fluctuations. For the financial system, huge databases now exist that facilitate the analysis of large fluctuations and the characterization of their statistical behaviour. Power laws appear to describe histograms of relevant financial fluctuations, such as fluctuations in stock price, trading volume and the number of trades. Surprisingly, the exponents that characterize these power laws are similar for different types and sizes of markets, for different market trends and even for different countries--suggesting that a generic theoretical basis may underlie these phenomena. Here we propose a model, based on a plausible set of assumptions, which provides an explanation for these empirical power laws. Our model is based on the hypothesis that large movements in stock market activity arise from the trades of large participants. Starting from an empirical characterization of the size distribution of those large market participants (mutual funds), we show that the power laws observed in financial data arise when the trading behaviour is performed in an optimal way. Our model additionally explains certain striking empirical regularities that describe the relationship between large fluctuations in prices, trading volume and the number of trades.

  20. Can Weather Radars Help Monitoring and Forecasting Wind Power Fluctuations at Large Offshore Wind Farms?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trombe, Pierre-Julien; Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2011-01-01

    The substantial impact of wind power fluctuations at large offshore wind farms calls for the development of dedicated monitoring and prediction approaches. Based on recent findings, a Local Area Weather Radar (LAWR) was installed at Horns Rev with the aim of improving predictability, controlability...... and potentially maintenance planning. Additional images are available from a Doppler radar covering the same area. The parallel analysis of rain events detection and of regime sequences in wind (and power) fluctuations demonstrates the interest of employing weather radars for a better operation and management...... of offshore wind farms....

  1. Correlation structures in short-term variabilities of stock indices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Tomomichi; Small, Michael

    2007-09-01

    Financial data usually show irregular fluctuations and some trends. We investigate whether there are correlation structures in short-term variabilities (irregular fluctuations) among financial data from the viewpoint of deterministic dynamical systems. Our method is based on the small-shuffle surrogate method. The data we use are daily closing price of Standard & Poor's 500 and the volume, and daily foreign exchange rates, Euro/US Dollar (USD), British Pound/USD and Japanese Yen/USD. We found that these data are not independent.

  2. Short-term memories with a stochastic perturbation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pontes, Jose C.A. de; Batista, Antonio M.; Viana, Ricardo L.; Lopes, Sergio R.

    2005-01-01

    We investigate short-term memories in linear and weakly nonlinear coupled map lattices with a periodic external input. We use locally coupled maps to present numerical results about short-term memory formation adding a stochastic perturbation in the maps and in the external input

  3. Short-term energy outlook, annual supplement 1994

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-08-01

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (Supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts

  4. Pediatric polytrauma : Short-term and long-term outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    vanderSluis, CK; Kingma, J; Eisma, WH; tenDuis, HJ

    Objective: To assess the short-term and long-term outcomes of pediatric polytrauma patients and to analyze the extent to which short-term outcomes can predict long-term outcomes. Materials and Methods: Ail pediatric polytrauma patients (Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 16, less than

  5. Comparison of Sugammadex and Neostigmine in Short Term Surgery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatih Koc

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: This study compared the efficacy and cost effectivines of sugammadex and neostigmine for reversal of neuromuscular blockade induced by rocuronium for short term elective surgery. Material and Method: After written informed consent, 33 patients aged 18%u201365, ASA I-III, who were undergoing short term surgery (

  6. Short-Term Group Treatment for Adult Children of Alcoholics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Alvin; McCormack, WIlliam A.

    1992-01-01

    Adult children of alcoholics (n=24) were tested on measures of loneliness, anxiety, hostility, depression, and interpersonal dependency before and after participation in short-term group therapy. Highly significant test score changes supported effectiveness of individual therapy in short-term groups. (Author/NB)

  7. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1993-08-06

    The Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement (supplement) is published once a year as a complement to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook), Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts.

  8. Short-Term Robustness of Production Management Systems : New Methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Gaury, E.G.A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the short-term robustness of production planning and control systems. This robustness is defined here as the systems ability to maintain short-term service probabilities (i.e., the probability that the fill rate remains within a prespecified range), in a variety of

  9. Short-Term Reciprocity in Late Parent-Child Relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leopold, Thomas; Raab, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    Long-term concepts of parent-child reciprocity assume that the amount of support given and received is only balanced in a generalized fashion over the life course. We argue that reciprocity in parent-child relationships also operates in the short term. Our analysis of short-term reciprocity focuses on concurrent exchange in its main upward and…

  10. Reactivity calculation with reduction of the nuclear power fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suescun Diaz, Daniel; Senra Martinez, Aquilino

    2009-01-01

    A new formulation is presented in this paper for the calculation of reactivity, which is simpler than the formulation that uses the Laplace and Z transforms. A treatment is also made to reduce the intensity of the noise found in the nuclear power signal used in the calculation of reactivity. Two classes of different filters are used for that. This treatment is based on the fact that the reactivity can be written by using the compose Simpson's rule resulting in a sum of two convolution terms with response to the impulse that is characteristic of a linear system. The linear part is calculated by using the filter named finite impulse response filter (FIR). The non-linear part is calculated using the filter exponentially adjusted by the least squares method, which does not cause attenuation in the reactivity calculation.

  11. Reactivity calculation with reduction of the nuclear power fluctuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suescun Diaz, Daniel [COPPE/UFRJ, Programa de Engenharia Nuclear, Caixa Postal 68509, CEP 21941-914 RJ (Brazil)], E-mail: dsuescun@hotmail.com; Senra Martinez, Aquilino [COPPE/UFRJ, Programa de Engenharia Nuclear, Caixa Postal 68509, CEP 21941-914 RJ (Brazil)

    2009-05-15

    A new formulation is presented in this paper for the calculation of reactivity, which is simpler than the formulation that uses the Laplace and Z transforms. A treatment is also made to reduce the intensity of the noise found in the nuclear power signal used in the calculation of reactivity. Two classes of different filters are used for that. This treatment is based on the fact that the reactivity can be written by using the compose Simpson's rule resulting in a sum of two convolution terms with response to the impulse that is characteristic of a linear system. The linear part is calculated by using the filter named finite impulse response filter (FIR). The non-linear part is calculated using the filter exponentially adjusted by the least squares method, which does not cause attenuation in the reactivity calculation.

  12. The footprint of atmospheric turbulence in power grid frequency measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haehne, H.; Schottler, J.; Waechter, M.; Peinke, J.; Kamps, O.

    2018-02-01

    Fluctuating wind energy makes a stable grid operation challenging. Due to the direct contact with atmospheric turbulence, intermittent short-term variations in the wind speed are converted to power fluctuations that cause transient imbalances in the grid. We investigate the impact of wind energy feed-in on short-term fluctuations in the frequency of the public power grid, which we have measured in our local distribution grid. By conditioning on wind power production data, provided by the ENTSO-E transparency platform, we demonstrate that wind energy feed-in has a measurable effect on frequency increment statistics for short time scales (renewable generation.

  13. Verbal Short-Term Memory Span in Speech-Disordered Children: Implications for Articulatory Coding in Short-Term Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raine, Adrian; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Children with speech disorders had lower short-term memory capacity and smaller word length effect than control children. Children with speech disorders also had reduced speech-motor activity during rehearsal. Results suggest that speech rate may be a causal determinant of verbal short-term memory capacity. (BC)

  14. International Short-Term Countermeasures Survey - 2012 Update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ingham, Grant

    2013-01-01

    Nuclear emergency planning, preparedness, response, and management, in general, are essential elements of any country's nuclear power programme. Part of nuclear emergency planning and preparedness is the implementation of national emergency plans, including detailed procedures for the implementation of short-term countermeasures, before during, and after the release of radioactive substances. The timely and appropriate implementation of short-term countermeasures, such as sheltering, evacuation, and iodine prophylaxis, can, in case of a nuclear emergency with a release of radioactive material, considerably reduce the doses to the public in the vicinity of the nuclear installation. Although international guidelines exist, national procedures and practices may differ due to different national habits, cultural specificity, and societal needs. Different national procedures and practices may, however, in the case of a radioactive release affecting two neighbouring countries, lead to different decisions in the implementation of countermeasures. In order to better understand existing approaches and to facilitate the comparison of national practices, the NEA decided to launch a questionnaire on current practices regarding short-term countermeasures, updating a similar survey performed in 1994 and 2003, as countries' practices have since evolved and been modified. In 2012, it was decided to reevaluate the country approaches in light of the early lessons learnt from the Fukushima Daiichi NPP accident. The information collected may be used to understand the basis for decisions in various countries, and, if deemed appropriate, as a basis for international harmonisation. This may also assist member countries to explain to the public affected by an emergency why the decisions in neighbouring countries may vary. This report summarises the information given by member countries and includes nine sections to explore the different aspects, covering the following topics: member

  15. Wind Power Fluctuation Smoothing Controller Based on Risk Assessment of Grid Frequency Deviation in an Isolated System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lin, Jin; Sun, Yuanzhang; Song, Yonghua

    2013-01-01

    a smoothing controller to suppress the power fluctuation from doubly-fed induction generator (DFIG)-based wind farm. This controller consists of threemain functionality components: risk assessmentmodel, wind turbine rotor speed optimizer, and rotor speed upper limiter. In order to avoid unnecessary energy...... curve with reduced output so that a trade-off between fluctuation smoothing and energy loss is achieved. Subsequently, the controller limits the maximum rotor speed to shift down the power curve of wind power plant based on the optimal wind turbine rotor speed. Therefore, the power fluctuation......Wind power fluctuation raises the security concern of grid frequency deviation, especially for an isolated power system. Thus, better control methodology needs to be developed to smooth the fluctuation without excessive spillage. Based on an actual industrial power system, this paper proposes...

  16. Coordinated Control of Wind Turbine and Energy Storage System for Reducing Wind Power Fluctuation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muljadi, Eduard [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kim, Chunghun [Hanyang University; Chung, Chung Choo [Hanyang University

    2017-11-13

    This paper proposes a coordinated control of wind turbine and energy storage system (ESS). Because wind power (WP) is highly dependent on variable wind speed and could induce a severe stability problem to power system especially when the WP has high penetration level. To solve this problem, many power generation corporations or grid operators recently use the ESS. It has very quick response and good performance for reducing the impact of WP fluctuation but has high cost for its installation. Therefore, it is very important to design the control algorithm considering both ESS capacity and grid reliability. Thus, we propose the control algorithm to mitigate the WP fluctuation by using the coordinated control between wind turbine and ESS considering ESS state of charge (SoC) and the WP fluctuation. From deloaded control according to WP fluctuation and ESS SoC management, we can expect the ESS lifespan expansion and improved grid reliability. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated in MATLAB/Simulink considering power system including both wind turbine generator and conventional generators which react to system frequency deviation.

  17. Drag and power-loss in rowing due to velocity fluctuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greidanus, A.J.; Delfos, R.; Westerweel, J.; Jansen, A.J.

    2016-01-01

    The flow motions in the turbulent boundary layer between water and a rowing boat initiate a turbulent skin friction. Reducing this skin friction results in better rowing performances. A Taylor-Couette (TC) facility was used to verify the power losses due to velocity fluctuations PV′ in

  18. Short-term effect of antibiotics on human gut microbiota.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchita Panda

    Full Text Available From birth onwards, the human gut microbiota rapidly increases in diversity and reaches an adult-like stage at three years of age. After this age, the composition may fluctuate in response to external factors such as antibiotics. Previous studies have shown that resilience is not complete months after cessation of the antibiotic intake. However, little is known about the short-term effects of antibiotic intake on the gut microbial community. Here we examined the load and composition of the fecal microbiota immediately after treatment in 21 patients, who received broad-spectrum antibiotics such as fluoroquinolones and β-lactams. A fecal sample was collected from all participants before treatment and one week after for microbial load and community composition analyses by quantitative PCR and pyrosequencing of the 16S rRNA gene, respectively. Fluoroquinolones and β-lactams significantly decreased microbial diversity by 25% and reduced the core phylogenetic microbiota from 29 to 12 taxa. However, at the phylum level, these antibiotics increased the Bacteroidetes/Firmicutes ratio (p = 0.0007, FDR = 0.002. At the species level, our findings unexpectedly revealed that both antibiotic types increased the proportion of several unknown taxa belonging to the Bacteroides genus, a Gram-negative group of bacteria (p = 0.0003, FDR<0.016. Furthermore, the average microbial load was affected by the treatment. Indeed, the β-lactams increased it significantly by two-fold (p = 0.04. The maintenance of or possible increase detected in microbial load and the selection of Gram-negative over Gram-positive bacteria breaks the idea generally held about the effect of broad-spectrum antibiotics on gut microbiota.

  19. A New Strategy for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi Yang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Electricity is a special energy which is hard to store, so the electricity demand forecasting remains an important problem. Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF plays a vital role in power systems because it is the essential part of power system planning and operation, and it is also fundamental in many applications. Considering that an individual forecasting model usually cannot work very well for STLF, a hybrid model based on the seasonal ARIMA model and BP neural network is presented in this paper to improve the forecasting accuracy. Firstly the seasonal ARIMA model is adopted to forecast the electric load demand day ahead; then, by using the residual load demand series obtained in this forecasting process as the original series, the follow-up residual series is forecasted by BP neural network; finally, by summing up the forecasted residual series and the forecasted load demand series got by seasonal ARIMA model, the final load demand forecasting series is obtained. Case studies show that the new strategy is quite useful to improve the accuracy of STLF.

  20. Short term load forecasting using neuro-fuzzy networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, M.; Hassan, A. [South Dakota School of Mines and Technology, Rapid City, SD (United States); Martinez, D. [Black Hills Power and Light, Rapid City, SD (United States)

    2005-07-01

    Details of a neuro-fuzzy network-based short term load forecasting system for power utilities were presented. The fuzzy logic controller was used to fuzzify inputs representing historical temperature and load curves. The fuzzified inputs were then used to develop the fuzzy rules matrix. Output membership function values were determined by evaluating the fuzzified inputs with the fuzzy rules. Output membership function values were used as inputs for the neural network portion of the system. The training process used a back propagation gradient descent algorithm to adjust the weight values of the neural network in order to reduce the error between the neural network output and the desired output. The neural network was then used to predict future load values. Sample data were taken from a local power company's daily load curve to validate the system. A 10 per cent forecast error was introduced in the temperature values to determine the effect on load prediction. Results of the study suggest that the combined use of fuzzy logic and neural networks provide greater accuracy than studies where either approach is used alone. 6 refs., 6 figs.

  1. Evaluation of Short Term Memory Span Function In Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barış ERGÜL

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Although details of the information encoded in the short-term memory where it is stored temporarily be recorded in the working memory in the next stage. Repeating the information mentally makes it remain in memory for a long time. Studies investigating the relationship between short-term memory and reading skills that are carried out to examine the relationship between short-term memory processes and reading comprehension. In this study information coming to short-term memory and the factors affecting operation of short term memory are investigated with regression model. The aim of the research is to examine the factors (age, IQ and reading skills that are expected the have an effect on short-term memory in children through regression analysis. One of the assumptions of regression analysis is to examine which has constant variance and normal distribution of the error term. In this study, because the error term is not normally distributed, robust regression techniques were applied. Also, for each technique; coefficient of determination is determined. According to the findings, the increase in age, IQ and reading skills caused the increase in short term memory in children. After applying robust regression techniques, the Winsorized Least Squares (WLS technique gives the highest coefficient of determination.

  2. Audit of long-term and short-term liabilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Korinko M.D.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The article determines the importance of long-term and short-term liabilities for the management of financial and material resources of an enterprise. It reviews the aim, objects and information generators for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations. The organizing and methodical providing of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities of an enterprise are generalized. The authors distinguish the stages of realization of audit of long-term and short-term liabilities, the aim of audit on each of the presented stages, and recommend methodical techniques. It is fixed that it is necessary to conduct the estimation of the systems of internal control and record-keeping of an enterprise by implementation of public accountant procedures for determination of volume and maintenance of selection realization. After estimating the indicated systems, a public accountant determines the methodology for realization of public accountant verification of long-term and short-term liabilities. The analytical procedures that public accountants are expedient to use for realization of audit of short-term and long-term obligations are determined. The authors suggest the classification of the educed defects on the results of the conducted public accountant verification of short-term and long-term obligations.

  3. Short term load forecasting: two stage modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SOARES, L. J.

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the hourly electricity load demand in the area covered by a utility situated in the Seattle, USA, called Puget Sound Power and Light Company. Our proposal is put into proof with the famous dataset from this company. We propose a stochastic model which employs ANN (Artificial Neural Networks to model short-run dynamics and the dependence among adjacent hours. The model proposed treats each hour's load separately as individual single series. This approach avoids modeling the intricate intra-day pattern (load profile displayed by the load, which varies throughout days of the week and seasons. The forecasting performance of the model is evaluated in similiar mode a TLSAR (Two-Level Seasonal Autoregressive model proposed by Soares (2003 using the years of 1995 and 1996 as the holdout sample. Moreover, we conclude that non linearity is present in some series of these data. The model results are analyzed. The experiment shows that our tool can be used to produce load forecasting in tropical climate places.

  4. The Interdependence of Long- and Short-Term Components in Unmasked Repetition Priming: An Indication of Shared Resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merema, Matt R; Speelman, Craig P

    2015-01-01

    It has been suggested that unmasked repetition priming is composed of distinct long-and short-term priming components. The current study sought to clarify the relationship between these components by examining the relationship between them. A total of 60 people (45 females, 15 males) participated in a computer-based lexical decision task designed to measure levels of short-term priming across different levels of long-term priming. The results revealed an interdependent relationship between the two components, whereby an increase in long-term priming prompted a decrease in short-term priming. Both long-term and short-term priming were accurately captured by a single power function over seven minutes post repetition, suggesting the two components may draw on the same resources. This interdependence between long- and short-term priming may serve to improve fluency in reading.

  5. The Interdependence of Long- and Short-Term Components in Unmasked Repetition Priming: An Indication of Shared Resources.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt R Merema

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that unmasked repetition priming is composed of distinct long-and short-term priming components. The current study sought to clarify the relationship between these components by examining the relationship between them. A total of 60 people (45 females, 15 males participated in a computer-based lexical decision task designed to measure levels of short-term priming across different levels of long-term priming. The results revealed an interdependent relationship between the two components, whereby an increase in long-term priming prompted a decrease in short-term priming. Both long-term and short-term priming were accurately captured by a single power function over seven minutes post repetition, suggesting the two components may draw on the same resources. This interdependence between long- and short-term priming may serve to improve fluency in reading.

  6. Auditory short-term memory behaves like visual short-term memory.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina M Visscher

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Are the information processing steps that support short-term sensory memory common to all the senses? Systematic, psychophysical comparison requires identical experimental paradigms and comparable stimuli, which can be challenging to obtain across modalities. Participants performed a recognition memory task with auditory and visual stimuli that were comparable in complexity and in their neural representations at early stages of cortical processing. The visual stimuli were static and moving Gaussian-windowed, oriented, sinusoidal gratings (Gabor patches; the auditory stimuli were broadband sounds whose frequency content varied sinusoidally over time (moving ripples. Parallel effects on recognition memory were seen for number of items to be remembered, retention interval, and serial position. Further, regardless of modality, predicting an item's recognizability requires taking account of (1 the probe's similarity to the remembered list items (summed similarity, and (2 the similarity between the items in memory (inter-item homogeneity. A model incorporating both these factors gives a good fit to recognition memory data for auditory as well as visual stimuli. In addition, we present the first demonstration of the orthogonality of summed similarity and inter-item homogeneity effects. These data imply that auditory and visual representations undergo very similar transformations while they are encoded and retrieved from memory.

  7. Auditory short-term memory behaves like visual short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visscher, Kristina M; Kaplan, Elina; Kahana, Michael J; Sekuler, Robert

    2007-03-01

    Are the information processing steps that support short-term sensory memory common to all the senses? Systematic, psychophysical comparison requires identical experimental paradigms and comparable stimuli, which can be challenging to obtain across modalities. Participants performed a recognition memory task with auditory and visual stimuli that were comparable in complexity and in their neural representations at early stages of cortical processing. The visual stimuli were static and moving Gaussian-windowed, oriented, sinusoidal gratings (Gabor patches); the auditory stimuli were broadband sounds whose frequency content varied sinusoidally over time (moving ripples). Parallel effects on recognition memory were seen for number of items to be remembered, retention interval, and serial position. Further, regardless of modality, predicting an item's recognizability requires taking account of (1) the probe's similarity to the remembered list items (summed similarity), and (2) the similarity between the items in memory (inter-item homogeneity). A model incorporating both these factors gives a good fit to recognition memory data for auditory as well as visual stimuli. In addition, we present the first demonstration of the orthogonality of summed similarity and inter-item homogeneity effects. These data imply that auditory and visual representations undergo very similar transformations while they are encoded and retrieved from memory.

  8. Quantifying and Reducing Uncertainty in Correlated Multi-Area Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Yannan; Hou, Zhangshuan; Meng, Da; Samaan, Nader A.; Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu

    2016-07-17

    In this study, we represent and reduce the uncertainties in short-term electric load forecasting by integrating time series analysis tools including ARIMA modeling, sequential Gaussian simulation, and principal component analysis. The approaches are mainly focusing on maintaining the inter-dependency between multiple geographically related areas. These approaches are applied onto cross-correlated load time series as well as their forecast errors. Multiple short-term prediction realizations are then generated from the reduced uncertainty ranges, which are useful for power system risk analyses.

  9. Observation of voltage fluctuations in a superconducting magnet during MHD power generation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.P.; Niemann, R.C.; Kraimer, M.R.; Zinneman, T.E.

    1978-01-01

    Fluctuating voltage signals on the potential taps of the ANL 5.0 T MHD Superconducting Dipole Magnet have been observed during MHD power generation at the U-25B Facility at the High Temperature Institute (IVTAN) Moscow, USSR. Various other thermodynamic and electrical parameters of the U-25B flow train have been recorded, and statistical analysis concerning correlations between the phenomena with a view of discerning causal interdependence is in progress. Voltage fluctuations observed at the magnet terminals are analyzed with special emphasis on magnet stability

  10. A Simplified Short Term Load Forecasting Method Based on Sequential Patterns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kouzelis, Konstantinos; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

    2014-01-01

    Load forecasting is an essential part of a power system both for planning and daily operation purposes. As far as the latter is concerned, short term load forecasting has been broadly used at the transmission level. However, recent technological advancements and legislation have facilitated the i...... in comparison with an ARIMA model....

  11. An Analysis of Variable-Speed Wind Turbine Power-Control Methods with Fluctuating Wind Speed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seung-Il Moon

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Variable-speed wind turbines (VSWTs typically use a maximum power-point tracking (MPPT method to optimize wind-energy acquisition. MPPT can be implemented by regulating the rotor speed or by adjusting the active power. The former, termed speed-control mode (SCM, employs a speed controller to regulate the rotor, while the latter, termed power-control mode (PCM, uses an active power controller to optimize the power. They are fundamentally equivalent; however, since they use a different controller at the outer control loop of the machine-side converter (MSC controller, the time dependence of the control system differs depending on whether SCM or PCM is used. We have compared and analyzed the power quality and the power coefficient when these two different control modes were used in fluctuating wind speeds through computer simulations. The contrast between the two methods was larger when the wind-speed fluctuations were greater. Furthermore, we found that SCM was preferable to PCM in terms of the power coefficient, but PCM was superior in terms of power quality and system stability.

  12. Short-term effects of simultaneous cardiovascular workout and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PMD), has become a growing public health concern, as it may potentially result in the development of hearing difficulties. Objectives: The aim of the study was to determine the differential impact and short-term effects of simultaneous ...

  13. Short-term treatment outcomes of children starting antiretroviral ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short-term treatment outcomes of children starting antiretroviral therapy in the intensive care unit, general medical wards and outpatient HIV clinics at Red Cross War Memorial Children's Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa: A retrospective cohort study.

  14. Short-Term Memory in Habituation and Dishabituation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitlow, Jesse William, Jr.

    1975-01-01

    The present research evaluated the refractorylike response decrement, as found in habituation of auditory evoked peripheral vasoconstriction in rabbits, to determine whether or not it represents a short-term habituation process distinct from effector fatigue or sensory adaptation. (Editor)

  15. Short-term outcome of patients with closed comminuted femoral ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Short-term outcome of patients with closed comminuted femoral shaft fracture treated with locking intramedullary sign nail at Muhimbili Orthopaedic Institute in Tanzania. Billy T. Haonga, Felix S. Mrita, Edmundo E. Ndalama, Jackline E. Makupa ...

  16. Short term variations in particulate matter in Mahi river estuary

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bhosle, N.B.; Rokade, M.A.; Zingde, M.D.

    The particulate matter (PM) collected from Mahi River Estuary was analysed for organic carbon (POC), nitrogen (PON), and chlorophyll a (Chl a). The concentration of PM, POC, PON and Chl a showed short term variations. Average surface concentration...

  17. The nature of forgetting from short-term memory

    OpenAIRE

    Muter, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Memory and forgetting are inextricably intertwined. Any account of short-term memory (STM) should address the following question: If three, four, or five chunks are being held in STM, what happens after attention is diverted?

  18. Parent-Offspring Conflict over Short-Term Mating Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Spyroulla Georgiou

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Individuals engage in short-term mating strategies that enable them to obtain fitness benefits from casual relationships. These benefits, however, count for less and cost more to their parents. On this basis three hypotheses are tested. First, parents and offspring are likely to disagree over short-term mating strategies, with the former considering these as less acceptable than the latter. Second, parents are more likely to disapprove of the short-term mating strategies of their daughters than of their sons. Finally, mothers and fathers are expected to agree on how much they disagree over the short-term mating strategies of their children. Evidence from a sample of 148 Greek-Cypriot families (140 mothers, 105 fathers, 119 daughters, 77 sons provides support for the first two hypotheses and partial support for the third hypothesis. The implications of these findings for understanding family dynamics are further discussed.

  19. Artificial Neural Network for Short-Term Load Forecasting in Distribution Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Hernández

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The new paradigms and latest developments in the Electrical Grid are based on the introduction of distributed intelligence at several stages of its physical layer, giving birth to concepts such as Smart Grids, Virtual Power Plants, microgrids, Smart Buildings and Smart Environments. Distributed Generation (DG is a philosophy in which energy is no longer produced exclusively in huge centralized plants, but also in smaller premises which take advantage of local conditions in order to minimize transmission losses and optimize production and consumption. This represents a new opportunity for renewable energy, because small elements such as solar panels and wind turbines are expected to be scattered along the grid, feeding local installations or selling energy to the grid depending on their local generation/consumption conditions. The introduction of these highly dynamic elements will lead to a substantial change in the curves of demanded energy. The aim of this paper is to apply Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF in microgrid environments with curves and similar behaviours, using two different data sets: the first one packing electricity consumption information during four years and six months in a microgrid along with calendar data, while the second one will be just four months of the previous parameters along with the solar radiation from the site. For the first set of data different STLF models will be discussed, studying the effect of each variable, in order to identify the best one. That model will be employed with the second set of data, in order to make a comparison with a new model that takes into account the solar radiation, since the photovoltaic installations of the microgrid will cause the power demand to fluctuate depending on the solar radiation.

  20. Short-term Consumer Benefits of Dynamic Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Dupont, Benjamin; De Jonghe, Cedric; Kessels, Kris; Belmans, Ronnie

    2011-01-01

    Consumer benefits of dynamic pricing depend on a variety of factors. Consumer characteristics and climatic circumstances widely differ, which forces a regional comparison. This paper presents a general overview of demand response programs and focuses on the short-term benefits of dynamic pricing for an average Flemish residential consumer. It reaches a methodology to develop a cost reflective dynamic pricing program and to estimate short-term bill savings. Participating in a dynamic pricing p...

  1. Behavioural Models of Motor Control and Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Imanaka, Kuniyasu; Funase, Kozo; Yamauchi, Masaki

    1995-01-01

    We examined in this review article the behavioural and conceptual models of motor control and short-term memory which have intensively been investigated since the 1970s. First, we reviewed both the dual-storage model of short-term memory in which movement information is stored and a typical model of motor control which emphasizes the importance of efferent factors. We then examined two models of preselection effects: a cognitive model and a cognitive/ efferent model. Following this we reviewe...

  2. An ethics curriculum for short-term global health trainees

    OpenAIRE

    DeCamp, Matthew; Rodriguez, Joce; Hecht, Shelby; Barry, Michele; Sugarman, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Background Interest in short-term global health training and service programs continues to grow, yet they can be associated with a variety of ethical issues for which trainees or others with limited global health experience may not be prepared to address. Therefore, there is a clear need for educational interventions concerning these ethical issues. Methods We developed and evaluated an introductory curriculum, ?Ethical Challenges in Short-term Global Health Training.? The curriculum was deve...

  3. Short-term incentive schemes for hospital managers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucas Malambe

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: Short-term incentives, considered to be an extrinsic motivation, are commonly used to motivate performance. This study explored hospital managers’ perceptions of short term incentives in maximising performance and retention. Research purpose: The study explored the experiences, views and perceptions of private hospital managers in South Africa regarding the use of short-term incentives to maximise performance and retention, as well as the applicability of the findings to public hospitals. Motivation for the study: Whilst there is an established link between performance reward schemes and organisational performance, there is little understanding of the effects of short term incentives on the performance and retention of hospital managers within the South African context. Research design, approach, and method: The study used a qualitative research design: interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 19 hospital managers, and a thematic content analysis was performed. Main findings: Short-term incentives may not be the primary motivator for hospital managers, but they do play a critical role in sustaining motivation. Participants indicated that these schemes could also be applicable to public hospitals. Practical/managerial implications: Hospital managers are inclined to be more motivated by intrinsic than extrinsic factors. However, hospital managers (as middle managers also seem to be motivated by short-term incentives. A combination of intrinsic and extrinsic motivators should thus be used to maximise performance and retention. Contribution/value-add: Whilst the study sought to explore hospital managers’ perceptions of short-term incentives, it also found that an adequate balance between internal and external motivators is key to implementing an effective short-term incentive scheme.

  4. Short-term mechanisms influencing volumetric brain dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikki Dieleman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI and brain analysis tools, it has become possible to measure brain volume changes up to around 0.5%. Besides long-term brain changes caused by atrophy in aging or neurodegenerative disease, short-term mechanisms that influence brain volume may exist. When we focus on short-term changes of the brain, changes may be either physiological or pathological. As such determining the cause of volumetric dynamics of the brain is essential. Additionally for an accurate interpretation of longitudinal brain volume measures by means of neurodegeneration, knowledge about the short-term changes is needed. Therefore, in this review, we discuss the possible mechanisms influencing brain volumes on a short-term basis and set-out a framework of MRI techniques to be used for volumetric changes as well as the used analysis tools. 3D T1-weighted images are the images of choice when it comes to MRI of brain volume. These images are excellent to determine brain volume and can be used together with an analysis tool to determine the degree of volume change. Mechanisms that decrease global brain volume are: fluid restriction, evening MRI measurements, corticosteroids, antipsychotics and short-term effects of pathological processes like Alzheimer's disease, hypertension and Diabetes mellitus type II. Mechanisms increasing the brain volume include fluid intake, morning MRI measurements, surgical revascularization and probably medications like anti-inflammatory drugs and anti-hypertensive medication. Exercise was found to have no effect on brain volume on a short-term basis, which may imply that dehydration caused by exercise differs from dehydration by fluid restriction. In the upcoming years, attention should be directed towards studies investigating physiological short-term changes within the light of long-term pathological changes. Ultimately this may lead to a better understanding of the physiological short-term effects of

  5. Frequency-specific insight into short-term memory capacity

    OpenAIRE

    Feurra, Matteo; Galli, Giulia; Pavone, Enea Francesco; Rossi, Alessandro; Rossi, Simone

    2016-01-01

    We provided novel evidence of a frequency-specific effect by transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) of the left posterior parietal cortex on short-term memory, during a digit span task. the effect was prominent with stimulation at beta frequency for young and not for middle-aged adults and correlated with age. Our findings highlighted a short-term memory capacity improvement by tACS application.

  6. Short-term memory for scenes with affective content

    OpenAIRE

    Maljkovic, Vera; Martini, Paolo

    2005-01-01

    The emotional content of visual images can be parameterized along two dimensions: valence (pleasantness) and arousal (intensity of emotion). In this study we ask how these distinct emotional dimensions affect the short-term memory of human observers viewing a rapid stream of images and trying to remember their content. We show that valence and arousal modulate short-term memory as independent factors. Arousal influences dramatically the average speed of data accumulation in memory: Higher aro...

  7. Narcissism and the Strategic Pursuit of Short-Term Mating

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmitt, David P.; Alcalay, Lidia; Allik, Jüri

    2017-01-01

    Previous studies have documented links between sub-clinical narcissism and the active pursuit of short-term mating strategies (e.g., unrestricted sociosexuality, marital infidelity, mate poaching). Nearly all of these investigations have relied solely on samples from Western cultures. In the curr...... limitations of these cross-culturally universal findings and presents suggestions for future research into revealing the precise psychological features of narcissism that facilitate the strategic pursuit of short-term mating....

  8. Periodization of Carbohydrate Intake: Short-Term Effect on Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie-Anne Marquet

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: “Sleep-low” consists of a sequential periodization of carbohydrate (CHO availability—low glycogen recovery after “train high” glycogen-depleting interval training, followed by an overnight-fast and light intensity training (“train low” the following day. This strategy leads to an upregulation of several exercise-responsive signaling proteins, but the chronic effect on performance has received less attention. We investigated the effects of short-term exposure to this strategy on endurance performance. Methods: Following training familiarization, 11 trained cyclists were divided into two groups for a one-week intervention—one group implemented three cycles of periodized CHO intake to achieve the sleep-low strategy over six training sessions (SL, CHO intake: 6 g·kg−1·day−1, whereas the control group consumed an even distribution of CHO over the day (CON. Tests were a 2 h submaximal ride and a 20 km time trial. Results: SL improved their performance (mean: +3.2%; p < 0.05 compared to CON. The improvement was associated with a change in pacing strategy with higher power output during the second part of the test. No change in substrate utilization was observed after the training period for either group. Conclusion: Implementing the “sleep-low” strategy for one week improved performance by the same magnitude previously seen in a three-week intervention, without any significant changes in selected markers of metabolism.

  9. Rhythmic Haptic Stimuli Improve Short-Term Attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shusheng; Wang, Dangxiao; Afzal, Naqash; Zhang, Yuru; Wu, Ruilin

    2016-01-01

    Brainwave entrainment using rhythmic visual and/or auditory stimulation has shown its efficacy in modulating neural activities and cognitive ability. In the presented study, we aim to investigate whether rhythmic haptic stimulation could enhance short-term attention. An experiment with sensorimotor rhythm (SMR) increasing protocol was performed in which participants were presented sinusoidal vibrotactile stimulus of 15 Hz on their palm. Test of Variables of Attention (T.O.V.A.) was performed before and after the stimulating session. Electroencephalograph (EEG) was recorded across the stimulating session and the two attention test sessions. SMR band power manifested a significant increase after stimulation. Results of T.O.V.A. tests indicated an improvement in the attention of participants who had received the stimulation compared to the control group who had not received the stimulation. The D prime score of T.O.V.A. reveals that participants performed better in perceptual sensitivity and sustaining attention level compared to their baseline performance before the stimulating session. These findings highlight the potential value of using haptics-based brainwave entrainment for cognitive training.

  10. Short-term generation scheduling model of Fujian hydro system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang Jinwen [School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)], E-mail: dr.jinwen.wang@gmail.com

    2009-04-15

    The Fujian hydropower system (FHS) is one of the provincial hydropower systems with the most complicated hydraulic topology in China. This paper describes an optimization program that is required by Fujian Electric Power Company Ltd. (FEPCL) to aid the shift engineers in making decisions with the short-term hydropower scheduling such that the generation benefit can be maximal. The problem involves 27 reservoirs and is formulated as a nonlinear and discrete programming. It is a very challenging task to solve such a large-scale problem. In this paper, the Lagrangian multipliers are introduced to decompose the primal problem into a hydro subproblem and many individual plant-based subproblems, which are respectively solved by the improved simplex-like method (SLM) and the dynamic programming (DP). A numerical example is given and the derived solution is very close to the optimal one, with the distance in benefit less than 0.004%. All the data needed for the numerical example are presented in detail for further tests and studies from more experts and researchers.

  11. Short-term generation scheduling model of Fujian hydro system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Jinwen [School of Hydropower and Information Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)

    2009-04-15

    The Fujian hydropower system (FHS) is one of the provincial hydropower systems with the most complicated hydraulic topology in China. This paper describes an optimization program that is required by Fujian Electric Power Company Ltd. (FEPCL) to aid the shift engineers in making decisions with the short-term hydropower scheduling such that the generation benefit can be maximal. The problem involves 27 reservoirs and is formulated as a nonlinear and discrete programming. It is a very challenging task to solve such a large-scale problem. In this paper, the Lagrangian multipliers are introduced to decompose the primal problem into a hydro subproblem and many individual plant-based subproblems, which are respectively solved by the improved simplex-like method (SLM) and the dynamic programming (DP). A numerical example is given and the derived solution is very close to the optimal one, with the distance in benefit less than 0.004%. All the data needed for the numerical example are presented in detail for further tests and studies from more experts and researchers. (author)

  12. Periodization of Carbohydrate Intake: Short-Term Effect on Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquet, Laurie-Anne; Hausswirth, Christophe; Molle, Odeline; Hawley, John A.; Burke, Louise M.; Tiollier, Eve; Brisswalter, Jeanick

    2016-01-01

    Background: “Sleep-low” consists of a sequential periodization of carbohydrate (CHO) availability—low glycogen recovery after “train high” glycogen-depleting interval training, followed by an overnight-fast and light intensity training (“train low”) the following day. This strategy leads to an upregulation of several exercise-responsive signaling proteins, but the chronic effect on performance has received less attention. We investigated the effects of short-term exposure to this strategy on endurance performance. Methods: Following training familiarization, 11 trained cyclists were divided into two groups for a one-week intervention—one group implemented three cycles of periodized CHO intake to achieve the sleep-low strategy over six training sessions (SL, CHO intake: 6 g·kg−1·day−1), whereas the control group consumed an even distribution of CHO over the day (CON). Tests were a 2 h submaximal ride and a 20 km time trial. Results: SL improved their performance (mean: +3.2%; p < 0.05) compared to CON. The improvement was associated with a change in pacing strategy with higher power output during the second part of the test. No change in substrate utilization was observed after the training period for either group. Conclusion: Implementing the “sleep-low” strategy for one week improved performance by the same magnitude previously seen in a three-week intervention, without any significant changes in selected markers of metabolism. PMID:27897989

  13. Short-term memory and dual task performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Regan, J. E.

    1982-01-01

    Two hypotheses concerning the way in which short-term memory interacts with another task in a dual task situation are considered. It is noted that when two tasks are combined, the activity of controlling and organizing performance on both tasks simultaneously may compete with either task for a resource; this resource may be space in a central mechanism or general processing capacity or it may be some task-specific resource. If a special relationship exists between short-term memory and control, especially if there is an identity relationship between short-term and a central controlling mechanism, then short-term memory performance should show a decrement in a dual task situation. Even if short-term memory does not have any particular identity with a controlling mechanism, but both tasks draw on some common resource or resources, then a tradeoff between the two tasks in allocating resources is possible and could be reflected in performance. The persistent concurrence cost in memory performance in these experiments suggests that short-term memory may have a unique status in the information processing system.

  14. The short-term impacts of Earned Income Tax Credit disbursement on health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehkopf, David H; Strully, Kate W; Dow, William H

    2014-12-01

    There are conflicting findings regarding long- and short-term effects of income on health. Whereas higher average income is associated with better health, there is evidence that health behaviours worsen in the short-term following income receipt.Prior studies revealing such negative short-term effects of income receipt focus on specific subpopulations and examine a limited set of health outcomes. The United States Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is an income supplement tied to work, and is the largest poverty reduction programme in the USA. We utilize the fact that EITC recipients typically receive large cash transfers in the months of February,March and April, in order to examine associated changes in health outcomes that can fluctuate on a monthly basis. We examine associations with 30 outcomes in the categories of diet, food security, health behaviours, cardiovascular biomarkers, metabolic biomarkers and infection and immunity among 6925 individuals from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Survey. Our research design approximates a natural experiment,since whether individuals were sampled during treatment or non-treatment months is independent of social, demographic and health characteristics that do not vary with time. There are both beneficial and detrimental short-term impacts of income receipt.Although there are detrimental impacts on metabolic factors among women, most other impacts are beneficial, including those for food security, smoking and trying to lose weight. The short-term impacts of EITC income receipt are not universally health promoting, but on balance there are more health benefits than detriments.

  15. Energy Storage on the Grid and the Short-term Variability of Wind

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hittinger, Eric Stephen

    profitability of wind farms. We find that market scenarios using existing price signals to motivate wind to reduce variability allow wind generators to participate in variability reduction when the market conditions are favorable, and can reduce short-term (30-minute) fluctuations while having little effect on wind farm revenue.

  16. Strategy Design of Hybrid Energy Storage System for Smoothing Wind Power Fluctuations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingyu Liu

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available With the increasing contribution of wind power plants, the reliability and security of modern power systems have become a huge challenge due to the uncertainty and intermittency of wind energy sources. In this paper, a hybrid energy storage system (HESS consisting of battery and supercapacitor is built to smooth the power fluctuations of wind power. A power allocation strategy is proposed to give full play to the respective advantages of the two energy storage components. In the proposed strategy, the low-frequency and high-frequency components of wind power fluctuations are absorbed by battery groups and supercapacitor groups, respectively. By inhibiting the low-frequency components of supercapacitor current, the times of charging-discharging of battery groups can be significantly reduced. A DC/AC converter is applied to achieve the power exchange between the HESS and the grid. Adjustment rules for regulating state-of-charge (SOC of energy storage elements are designed to avoid overcharge and deep discharge considering the safety and the high efficiency of the energy storage elements. Experimental results on the test platform verify the effectiveness of the proposed power allocation strategy in DC/AC converter and battery SOC adjustment rules for regulating SOC levels.

  17. Analysis of losses within SMES system for compensating output fluctuation of wind power farm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, S. I.; Kim, J. H.; Le, T. D.; Lee, D. H.; Kim, H. M. [Jeju National University, Jeju (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Y. S. [Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Shin Ansan University, Ansan (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, K. Y. [Dept. of lectrical and Electronic Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-12-15

    Output fluctuation which is generated in wind power farm can hinder stability of total power system. The electric energy storage (EES) reduces unstable output, and superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) of various EESs has the proper performance for output compensation of wind power farm since it charges and discharges large scale power quickly with high efficiency. However, because of the change of current within SMES, the electromagnetic losses occur in the process of output compensation. In this paper, the thermal effect of the losses that occur in SMES system while compensating in wind power farm is analyzed. The output analysis of wind power farm is processed by numerical analysis, and the losses of SMES system is analyzed by 3D finite element analysis (FEA) simulation tool.

  18. Analysis of losses within SMES system for compensating output fluctuation of wind power farm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, S. I.; Kim, J. H.; Le, T. D.; Lee, D. H.; Kim, H. M.; Yoon, Y. S.; Yoon, K. Y.

    2014-01-01

    Output fluctuation which is generated in wind power farm can hinder stability of total power system. The electric energy storage (EES) reduces unstable output, and superconducting magnetic energy storage (SMES) of various EESs has the proper performance for output compensation of wind power farm since it charges and discharges large scale power quickly with high efficiency. However, because of the change of current within SMES, the electromagnetic losses occur in the process of output compensation. In this paper, the thermal effect of the losses that occur in SMES system while compensating in wind power farm is analyzed. The output analysis of wind power farm is processed by numerical analysis, and the losses of SMES system is analyzed by 3D finite element analysis (FEA) simulation tool.

  19. Remedial measures at the short-term regulated rivers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soimakallio, H.

    1995-01-01

    Building up and producing hydro power causes environmental effects, which are directed at the geomorfology, hydrology, water quality, organisms and landscape of the water system. To reduce and eliminate these various effects there are available an abundance of technical remedial measures, many of which contribute to several effects at the same time. In Finland a lot of remedial measures have been carried out at voluntary or obligatory bases. The information concerning remedial measures implemented in large build-up rivers were collected as a part of the study of the effects of the short-term regulation of hydro power plants. Material for the study was collected via literature, postal inquiry and terrain visits. Measures handled in the study were protection and reinforcement of shores, boating projects, submerged weirs, improvement of water turnover, fishery, clearing of peat rafts and stubs, landscaping, maintaining ice roads and shaping river banks. Nowadays planning and implementation of the remedial measures varies greatly depending on the nature and extent of the project. Large projects, which are more expensive, are naturally planned more carefully and comprehensively than simple routine measures. Also the quality of follow-up of the sites changes and the main portion of the information is received through terrain checks and direct feed-back from the users of the water system. In the future there is a need for model plans of the different routine measures. Also a systemic method to evaluate and compare different actions is needed to help decision making and to solve possible conflicts between different interests. Fishery, which is generally managed well, must in the future utilize better possibilities offered by other measures. According to the study there is no particular need to develop the follow-up systems. However, if the follow-up information is going to be used to develop the measures further, more systematic systems are needed for follow-up. (author)

  20. Simulation of power fluctuation of wind farms based on frequency domain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lin, Jin; Sun, Yuanzhang; Li, Guojie

    2011-01-01

    The wind power fluctuation model built up in the frequency domain is mathematically equivalent with that in the time domain, and has a clearer physical meaning therefore describes the fluctuation more accurately. However, the simulation of this model is required to deal with the time......-frequency transformation related to the power spectrum density (PSD), which is more special and complicated than normal transformations. Meanwhile, the computational complexity also increases significantly, more computation resources are needed. These problems negatively affect the engineering application of the model....... To overcome these disadvantages, the physical meaning of PSD based on fundamental concepts is presented, so that the specialties of this model compared with conventional ones can be understood. Then the time-frequency transformation algorithm is derived, which is fast to be implemented in digital computers...

  1. Output power fluctuations due to different weights of macro particles used in particle-in-cell simulations of Cerenkov devices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao, Rong; Li, Yongdong; Liu, Chunliang; Wang, Hongguang

    2016-01-01

    The output power fluctuations caused by weights of macro particles used in particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of a backward wave oscillator and a travelling wave tube are statistically analyzed. It is found that the velocities of electrons passed a specific slow-wave structure form a specific electron velocity distribution. The electron velocity distribution obtained in PIC simulation with a relative small weight of macro particles is considered as an initial distribution. By analyzing this initial distribution with a statistical method, the estimations of the output power fluctuations caused by different weights of macro particles are obtained. The statistical method is verified by comparing the estimations with the simulation results. The fluctuations become stronger with increasing weight of macro particles, which can also be determined reversely from estimations of the output power fluctuations. With the weights of macro particles optimized by the statistical method, the output power fluctuations in PIC simulations are relatively small and acceptable.

  2. Power spectral density of velocity fluctuations estimated from phase Doppler data

    OpenAIRE

    Jicha Miroslav; Lizal Frantisek; Jedelsky Jan

    2012-01-01

    Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) and its modifications such as PhaseDoppler Particle Anemometry (P/DPA) is point-wise method for optical nonintrusive measurement of particle velocity with high data rate. Conversion of the LDA velocity data from temporal to frequency domain – calculation of power spectral density (PSD) of velocity fluctuations, is a non trivial task due to nonequidistant data sampling in time. We briefly discuss possibilities for the PSD estimation and specify limitations caused...

  3. Revolutionary interdisciplinary cooperation. Effects of short- term regulation studied in a river environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saimakallio, H.; Virsu, R.

    1996-11-01

    A three-year study on how short-term regulation affects the river environment provides power plant builders with new capabilities to meet the needs of the riverside population, recreational users and power plants. The study also opens up new perspectives to researchers. Interdisciplinary cooperation between experts on the living environment, vegetation, fish, recreational use and energy has been revolutionary even on the international scale. (orig.)

  4. Power-law neuronal fluctuations in a recurrent network model of parametric working memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Paul; Wang, Xiao-Jing

    2006-02-01

    In a working memory system, persistent activity maintains information in the absence of external stimulation, therefore the time scale and structure of correlated neural fluctuations reflect the intrinsic microcircuit dynamics rather than direct responses to sensory inputs. Here we show that a parametric working memory model capable of graded persistent activity is characterized by arbitrarily long correlation times, with Fano factors and power spectra of neural activity described by the power laws of a random walk. Collective drifts of the mnemonic firing pattern induce long-term noise correlations between pairs of cells, with the sign (positive or negative) and amplitude proportional to the product of the gradients of their tuning curves. None of the power-law behavior was observed in a variant of the model endowed with discrete bistable neural groups, where noise fluctuations were unable to cause long-term changes in rate. Therefore such behavior can serve as a probe for a quasi-continuous attractor. We propose that the unusual correlated fluctuations have important implications for neural coding in parametric working memory circuits.

  5. Holding Multiple Items in Short Term Memory: A Neural Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolls, Edmund T.; Dempere-Marco, Laura; Deco, Gustavo

    2013-01-01

    Human short term memory has a capacity of several items maintained simultaneously. We show how the number of short term memory representations that an attractor network modeling a cortical local network can simultaneously maintain active is increased by using synaptic facilitation of the type found in the prefrontal cortex. We have been able to maintain 9 short term memories active simultaneously in integrate-and-fire simulations where the proportion of neurons in each population, the sparseness, is 0.1, and have confirmed the stability of such a system with mean field analyses. Without synaptic facilitation the system can maintain many fewer memories active in the same network. The system operates because of the effectively increased synaptic strengths formed by the synaptic facilitation just for those pools to which the cue is applied, and then maintenance of this synaptic facilitation in just those pools when the cue is removed by the continuing neuronal firing in those pools. The findings have implications for understanding how several items can be maintained simultaneously in short term memory, how this may be relevant to the implementation of language in the brain, and suggest new approaches to understanding and treating the decline in short term memory that can occur with normal aging. PMID:23613789

  6. Impaired short-term memory for pitch in congenital amusia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillmann, Barbara; Lévêque, Yohana; Fornoni, Lesly; Albouy, Philippe; Caclin, Anne

    2016-06-01

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. The hypothesis is that the musical deficits arise from altered pitch processing, with impairments in pitch discrimination (i.e., pitch change detection, pitch direction discrimination and identification) and short-term memory. The present review article focuses on the deficit of short-term memory for pitch. Overall, the data discussed here suggest impairments at each level of processing in short-term memory tasks; starting with the encoding of the pitch information and the creation of the adequate memory trace, the retention of the pitch traces over time as well as the recollection and comparison of the stored information with newly incoming information. These impairments have been related to altered brain responses in a distributed fronto-temporal network, associated with decreased connectivity between these structures, as well as in abnormalities in the connectivity between the two auditory cortices. In contrast, amusic participants׳ short-term memory abilities for verbal material are preserved. These findings show that short-term memory deficits in congenital amusia are specific to pitch, suggesting a pitch-memory system that is, at least partly, separated from verbal memory. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled SI: Auditory working memory. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Circadian modulation of short-term memory in Drosophila.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Lisa C; Roman, Gregg

    2009-01-01

    Endogenous biological clocks are widespread regulators of behavior and physiology, allowing for a more efficient allocation of efforts and resources over the course of a day. The extent that different processes are regulated by circadian oscillators, however, is not fully understood. We investigated the role of the circadian clock on short-term associative memory formation using a negatively reinforced olfactory-learning paradigm in Drosophila melanogaster. We found that memory formation was regulated in a circadian manner. The peak performance in short-term memory (STM) occurred during the early subjective night with a twofold performance amplitude after a single pairing of conditioned and unconditioned stimuli. This rhythm in memory is eliminated in both timeless and period mutants and is absent during constant light conditions. Circadian gating of sensory perception does not appear to underlie the rhythm in short-term memory as evidenced by the nonrhythmic shock avoidance and olfactory avoidance behaviors. Moreover, central brain oscillators appear to be responsible for the modulation as cryptochrome mutants, in which the antennal circadian oscillators are nonfunctional, demonstrate robust circadian rhythms in short-term memory. Together these data suggest that central, rather than peripheral, circadian oscillators modulate the formation of short-term associative memory and not the perception of the stimuli.

  8. LANGUAGE REPETITION AND SHORT-TERM MEMORY: AN INTEGRATIVE FRAMEWORK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve eMajerus

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Short-term maintenance of verbal information is a core factor of language repetition, especially when reproducing multiple or unfamiliar stimuli. Many models of language processing locate the verbal short-term maintenance function in the left posterior superior temporo-parietal area and its connections with the inferior frontal gyrus. However, research in the field of short-term memory has implicated bilateral fronto-parietal networks, involved in attention and serial order processing, as being critical for the maintenance and reproduction of verbal sequences. We present here an integrative framework aimed at bridging research in the language processing and short-term memory fields. This framework considers verbal short-term maintenance as an emergent function resulting from synchronized and integrated activation in dorsal and ventral language processing networks as well as fronto-parietal attention and serial order processing networks. To-be-maintained item representations are temporarily activated in the dorsal and ventral language processing networks, novel phoneme and word serial order information is proposed to be maintained via a right fronto-parietal serial order processing network, and activation in these different networks is proposed to be coordinated and maintained via a left fronto-parietal attention processing network. This framework provides new perspectives for our understanding of information maintenance at the nonword-, word- and sentence-level as well as of verbal maintenance deficits in case of brain injury.

  9. Language repetition and short-term memory: an integrative framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majerus, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Short-term maintenance of verbal information is a core factor of language repetition, especially when reproducing multiple or unfamiliar stimuli. Many models of language processing locate the verbal short-term maintenance function in the left posterior superior temporo-parietal area and its connections with the inferior frontal gyrus. However, research in the field of short-term memory has implicated bilateral fronto-parietal networks, involved in attention and serial order processing, as being critical for the maintenance and reproduction of verbal sequences. We present here an integrative framework aimed at bridging research in the language processing and short-term memory fields. This framework considers verbal short-term maintenance as an emergent function resulting from synchronized and integrated activation in dorsal and ventral language processing networks as well as fronto-parietal attention and serial order processing networks. To-be-maintained item representations are temporarily activated in the dorsal and ventral language processing networks, novel phoneme and word serial order information is proposed to be maintained via a right fronto-parietal serial order processing network, and activation in these different networks is proposed to be coordinated and maintained via a left fronto-parietal attention processing network. This framework provides new perspectives for our understanding of information maintenance at the non-word-, word- and sentence-level as well as of verbal maintenance deficits in case of brain injury.

  10. Holding multiple items in short term memory: a neural mechanism.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmund T Rolls

    Full Text Available Human short term memory has a capacity of several items maintained simultaneously. We show how the number of short term memory representations that an attractor network modeling a cortical local network can simultaneously maintain active is increased by using synaptic facilitation of the type found in the prefrontal cortex. We have been able to maintain 9 short term memories active simultaneously in integrate-and-fire simulations where the proportion of neurons in each population, the sparseness, is 0.1, and have confirmed the stability of such a system with mean field analyses. Without synaptic facilitation the system can maintain many fewer memories active in the same network. The system operates because of the effectively increased synaptic strengths formed by the synaptic facilitation just for those pools to which the cue is applied, and then maintenance of this synaptic facilitation in just those pools when the cue is removed by the continuing neuronal firing in those pools. The findings have implications for understanding how several items can be maintained simultaneously in short term memory, how this may be relevant to the implementation of language in the brain, and suggest new approaches to understanding and treating the decline in short term memory that can occur with normal aging.

  11. Holding multiple items in short term memory: a neural mechanism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolls, Edmund T; Dempere-Marco, Laura; Deco, Gustavo

    2013-01-01

    Human short term memory has a capacity of several items maintained simultaneously. We show how the number of short term memory representations that an attractor network modeling a cortical local network can simultaneously maintain active is increased by using synaptic facilitation of the type found in the prefrontal cortex. We have been able to maintain 9 short term memories active simultaneously in integrate-and-fire simulations where the proportion of neurons in each population, the sparseness, is 0.1, and have confirmed the stability of such a system with mean field analyses. Without synaptic facilitation the system can maintain many fewer memories active in the same network. The system operates because of the effectively increased synaptic strengths formed by the synaptic facilitation just for those pools to which the cue is applied, and then maintenance of this synaptic facilitation in just those pools when the cue is removed by the continuing neuronal firing in those pools. The findings have implications for understanding how several items can be maintained simultaneously in short term memory, how this may be relevant to the implementation of language in the brain, and suggest new approaches to understanding and treating the decline in short term memory that can occur with normal aging.

  12. Brain oscillatory substrates of visual short-term memory capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauseng, Paul; Klimesch, Wolfgang; Heise, Kirstin F; Gruber, Walter R; Holz, Elisa; Karim, Ahmed A; Glennon, Mark; Gerloff, Christian; Birbaumer, Niels; Hummel, Friedhelm C

    2009-11-17

    The amount of information that can be stored in visual short-term memory is strictly limited to about four items. Therefore, memory capacity relies not only on the successful retention of relevant information but also on efficient suppression of distracting information, visual attention, and executive functions. However, completely separable neural signatures for these memory capacity-limiting factors remain to be identified. Because of its functional diversity, oscillatory brain activity may offer a utile solution. In the present study, we show that capacity-determining mechanisms, namely retention of relevant information and suppression of distracting information, are based on neural substrates independent of each other: the successful maintenance of relevant material in short-term memory is associated with cross-frequency phase synchronization between theta (rhythmical neural activity around 5 Hz) and gamma (> 50 Hz) oscillations at posterior parietal recording sites. On the other hand, electroencephalographic alpha activity (around 10 Hz) predicts memory capacity based on efficient suppression of irrelevant information in short-term memory. Moreover, repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation at alpha frequency can modulate short-term memory capacity by influencing the ability to suppress distracting information. Taken together, the current study provides evidence for a double dissociation of brain oscillatory correlates of visual short-term memory capacity.

  13. Gas density fluctuations in the Perseus Cluster: clumping factor and velocity power spectrum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhuravleva, I.; Churazov, E.; Arevalo, P.; Schekochihin, A. A.; Allen, S. W.; Fabian, A. C.; Forman, W. R.; Sanders, J. S.; Simionescu, A.; Sunyaev, R.; Vikhlinin, A.; Werner, N.

    2015-05-20

    X-ray surface brightness fluctuations in the core of the Perseus Cluster are analysed, using deep observations with the Chandra observatory. The amplitude of gas density fluctuations on different scales is measured in a set of radial annuli. It varies from 7 to 12 per cent on scales of ~10–30 kpc within radii of 30–220 kpc from the cluster centre. Using a statistical linear relation between the observed amplitude of density fluctuations and predicted velocity, the characteristic velocity of gas motions on each scale is calculated. The typical amplitudes of the velocity outside the central 30 kpc region are 90–140 km s-1 on ~20–30 kpc scales and 70–100 km s-1 on smaller scales ~7–10 kpc. The velocity power spectrum (PS) is consistent with cascade of turbulence and its slope is in a broad agreement with the slope for canonical Kolmogorov turbulence. The gas clumping factor estimated from the PS of the density fluctuations is lower than 7–8 per cent for radii ~30–220 kpc from the centre, leading to a density bias of less than 3–4 per cent in the cluster core. Uncertainties of the analysis are examined and discussed. Future measurements of the gas velocities with the Astro-H, Athena and Smart-X observatories will directly measure the gas density–velocity perturbation relation and further reduce systematic uncertainties in this analysis.

  14. A comparison of short-term dispersion estimates resulting from various atmospheric stability classification methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitchell, A.E. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Four methods of classifying atmospheric stability class are applied at four sites to make short-term (1-h) dispersion estimates from a ground-level source based on a model consistent with U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission practice. The classification methods include vertical temperature gradient, standard deviation of horizontal wind direction fluctuations (sigma theta), Pasquill-Turner, and modified sigma theta which accounts for meander. Results indicate that modified sigma theta yields reasonable dispersion estimates compared to those produced using methods of vertical temperature gradient and Pasquill-Turner, and can be considered as a potential economic alternative in establishing onsite monitoring programs. (author)

  15. Short-term Wind Forecasting at Wind Farms using WRF-LES and Actuator Disk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkil, Gokhan

    2017-04-01

    Short-term wind forecasts are obtained for a wind farm on a mountainous terrain using WRF-LES. Multi-scale simulations are also performed using different PBL parameterizations. Turbines are parameterized using Actuator Disc Model. LES models improved the forecasts. Statistical error analysis is performed and ramp events are analyzed. Complex topography of the study area affects model performance, especially the accuracy of wind forecasts were poor for cross valley-mountain flows. By means of LES, we gain new knowledge about the sources of spatial and temporal variability of wind fluctuations such as the configuration of wind turbines.

  16. Short-term and working memory impairments in aphasia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potagas, Constantin; Kasselimis, Dimitrios; Evdokimidis, Ioannis

    2011-08-01

    The aim of the present study is to investigate short-term memory and working memory deficits in aphasics in relation to the severity of their language impairment. Fifty-eight aphasic patients participated in this study. Based on language assessment, an aphasia score was calculated for each patient. Memory was assessed in two modalities, verbal and spatial. Mean scores for all memory tasks were lower than normal. Aphasia score was significantly correlated with performance on all memory tasks. Correlation coefficients for short-term memory and working memory were approximately of the same magnitude. According to our findings, severity of aphasia is related with both verbal and spatial memory deficits. Moreover, while aphasia score correlated with lower scores in both short-term memory and working memory tasks, the lack of substantial difference between corresponding correlation coefficients suggests a possible primary deficit in information retention rather than impairment in working memory. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. The pedagogy of Short-Term Study-Abroad Programs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jude Gonsalvez

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on establishing guidelines on the pedagogy of short term study abroad programs. This study follows 33 students who participated in a short-term study-abroad program to India with the researcher from 2006 through 2011. The study relies heavily on the student reflections and expressions as they experienced them. It is qualitative in nature. Focus groups were the main method of data collection, where participants were invited to reflect, express, and share their experiences with one another. This provided an opportunity for the participants to come together, relive their experiences, and help provide information as to how and what type of an influence this short-term study-abroad program provided.

  18. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration's (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook

  19. Verbal short-term memory and vocabulary learning in polyglots.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papagno, C; Vallar, G

    1995-02-01

    Polyglot and non-polyglot Italian subjects were given tests assessing verbal (phonological) and visuo-spatial short-term and long-term memory, general intelligence, and vocabulary knowledge in their native language. Polyglots had a superior level of performance in verbal short-term memory tasks (auditory digit span and nonword repetition) and in a paired-associate learning test, which assessed the subjects' ability to acquire new (Russian) words. By contrast, the two groups had comparable performance levels in tasks assessing general intelligence, visuo-spatial short-term memory and learning, and paired-associate learning of Italian words. These findings, which are in line with neuropsychological and developmental evidence, as well as with data from normal subjects, suggest a close relationship between the capacity of phonological memory and the acquisition of foreign languages.

  20. [Impulsiveness Among Short-Term Prisoners with Antisocial Personality Disorder].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, Fabian U; Otte, Stefanie; Vasic, Nenad; Jäger, Markus; Dudeck, Manuela

    2015-07-01

    The study aimed to investigate the correlation between impulsiveness and the antisocial personality disorder among short-term prisoners. The impulsiveness was diagnosed by the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale (BIS). Short-term prisoners with antisocial personality disorder scored significant higher marks on the BIS total scale than those without any personality disorder. In detail, they scored higher marks on each subscale regarding attentional, motor and nonplanning impulsiveness. Moderate and high effects were calculated. It is to be considered to regard impulsivity as a conceptual component of antisociality. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  1. Short-term memory binding deficits in Alzheimer's disease

    OpenAIRE

    Parra, Mario; Abrahams, S.; Fabi, K.; Logie, R.; Luzzi, S.; Della Sala, Sergio

    2009-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease impairs long term memories for related events (e.g. faces with names) more than for single events (e.g. list of faces or names). Whether or not this associative or ‘binding’ deficit is also found in short-term memory has not yet been explored. In two experiments we investigated binding deficits in verbal short-term memory in Alzheimer's disease. Experiment 1 : 23 patients with Alzheimer's disease and 23 age and education matched healthy elderly were recruited. Participants...

  2. Pressure fluctuation analysis for charging pump of chemical and volume control system of nuclear power plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Qiang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Equipment Failure Root Cause Analysis (ERCA methodology is employed in this paper to investigate the root cause for charging pump’s pressure fluctuation of chemical and volume control system (RCV in pressurized water reactor (PWR nuclear power plant. RCA project task group has been set up at the beginning of the analysis process. The possible failure modes are listed according to the characteristics of charging pump’s actual pressure fluctuation and maintenance experience during the analysis process. And the failure modes are analysed in proper sequence by the evidence-collecting. It suggests that the gradually untightened and loosed shaft nut in service should be the root cause. And corresponding corrective actions are put forward in details.

  3. Room Volume Estimation Based on Ambiguity of Short-Term Interaural Phase Differences Using Humanoid Robot Head

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryuichi Shimoyama

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Humans can recognize approximate room size using only binaural audition. However, sound reverberation is not negligible in most environments. The reverberation causes temporal fluctuations in the short-term interaural phase differences (IPDs of sound pressure. This study proposes a novel method for a binaural humanoid robot head to estimate room volume. The method is based on the statistical properties of the short-term IPDs of sound pressure. The humanoid robot turns its head toward a sound source, recognizes the sound source, and then estimates the ego-centric distance by its stereovision. By interpolating the relations between room volume, average standard deviation, and ego-centric distance experimentally obtained for various rooms in a prepared database, the room volume was estimated by the binaural audition of the robot from the average standard deviation of the short-term IPDs at the estimated distance.

  4. Simulation of Mechanical Processes in Gas Storage Caverns for Short-Term Energy Storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Böttcher, Norbert; Nagel, Thomas; Kolditz, Olaf

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, Germany's energy management has started to be transferred from fossil fuels to renewable and sustainable energy carriers. Renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power are subjected by fluctuations, thus the development and extension of energy storage capacities is a priority in German R&D programs. This work is a part of the ANGUS+ Project, funded by the federal ministry of education and research, which investigates the influence of subsurface energy storage on the underground. The utilization of subsurface salt caverns as a long-term storage reservoir for fossil fuels is a common method, since the construction of caverns in salt rock is inexpensive in comparison to solid rock formations due to solution mining. Another advantage of evaporate as host material is the self-healing behaviour of salt rock, thus the cavity can be assumed to be impermeable. In the framework of short-term energy storage (hours to days), caverns can be used as gas storage reservoirs for natural or artificial fuel gases, such as hydrogen, methane, or compressed air, where the operation pressures inside the caverns will fluctuate more frequently. This work investigates the influence of changing operation pressures at high frequencies on the stability of the host rock of gas storage caverns utilizing numerical models. Therefore, we developed a coupled Thermo-Hydro-Mechanical (THM) model based on the finite element method utilizing the open-source software platform OpenGeoSys. The salt behaviour is described by well-known constitutive material models which are capable of predicting creep, self-healing, and dilatancy processes. Our simulations include the thermodynamic behaviour of gas storage process, temperature development and distribution on the cavern boundary, the deformation of the cavern geometry, and the prediction of the dilatancy zone. Based on the numerical results, optimal operation modes can be found for individual caverns, so the risk of host rock damage

  5. Real-time energy resources scheduling considering short-term and very short-term wind forecast

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, Marco; Sousa, Tiago; Morais, Hugo; Vale, Zita [Polytechnic of Porto (Portugal). GECAD - Knowledge Engineering and Decision Support Research Center

    2012-07-01

    This paper proposes an energy resources management methodology based on three distinct time horizons: day-ahead scheduling, hour-ahead scheduling, and real-time scheduling. In each scheduling process the update of generation and consumption operation and of the storage and electric vehicles storage status are used. Besides the new operation conditions, the most accurate forecast values of wind generation and of consumption using results of short-term and very short-term methods are used. A case study considering a distribution network with intensive use of distributed generation and electric vehicles is presented. (orig.)

  6. Short-Term Effects of Playing Computer Games on Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahiroglu, Aysegul Yolga; Celik, Gonca Gul; Avci, Ayse; Seydaoglu, Gulsah; Uzel, Mehtap; Altunbas, Handan

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The main aim of the present study is to investigate the short-term cognitive effects of computer games in children with different psychiatric disorders and normal controls. Method: One hundred one children are recruited for the study (aged between 9 and 12 years). All participants played a motor-racing game on the computer for 1 hour.…

  7. Exogenous Attention Influences Visual Short-Term Memory in Infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross-Sheehy, Shannon; Oakes, Lisa M.; Luck, Steven J.

    2011-01-01

    Two experiments examined the hypothesis that developing visual attentional mechanisms influence infants' Visual Short-Term Memory (VSTM) in the context of multiple items. Five- and 10-month-old infants (N = 76) received a change detection task in which arrays of three differently colored squares appeared and disappeared. On each trial one square…

  8. Retrieval-Induced Inhibition in Short-Term Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Min-Suk; Choi, Joongrul

    2015-07-01

    We used a visual illusion called motion repulsion as a model system for investigating competition between two mental representations. Subjects were asked to remember two random-dot-motion displays presented in sequence and then to report the motion directions for each. Remembered motion directions were shifted away from the actual motion directions, an effect similar to the motion repulsion observed during perception. More important, the item retrieved second showed greater repulsion than the item retrieved first. This suggests that earlier retrieval exerted greater inhibition on the other item being held in short-term memory. This retrieval-induced motion repulsion could be explained neither by reduced cognitive resources for maintaining short-term memory nor by continued inhibition between short-term memory representations. These results indicate that retrieval of memory representations inhibits other representations in short-term memory. We discuss mechanisms of retrieval-induced inhibition and their implications for the structure of memory. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. The Precategorical Nature of Visual Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinlan, Philip T.; Cohen, Dale J.

    2016-01-01

    We conducted a series of recognition experiments that assessed whether visual short-term memory (VSTM) is sensitive to shared category membership of to-be-remembered (tbr) images of common objects. In Experiment 1 some of the tbr items shared the same basic level category (e.g., hand axe): Such items were no better retained than others. In the…

  10. SHORT-TERM MEMORY IS INDEPENDENT OF BRAIN PROTEIN SYNTHESIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davis, Hasker P.; Rosenzweig, Mark R.; Jones, Oliver W.

    1980-09-01

    Male Swiss albino CD-1 mice given a single injection of a cerebral protein synthesis inhibitor, anisomycin (ANI) (1 mg/animal), 20 min prior to single trial passive avoidance training demonstrated impaired retention at tests given 3 hr, 6 hr, 1 day, and 7 days after training. Retention was not significantly different from saline controls when tests were given 0.5 or 1.5 hr after training. Prolonging inhibition of brain protein synthesis by giving either 1 or 2 additional injections of ANI 2 or 2 and 4 hr after training did not prolong short-term retention performance. The temporal development of impaired retention in ANI treated mice could not be accounted for by drug dosage, duration of protein synthesis inhibition, or nonspecific sickness at test. In contrast to the suggestion that protein synthesis inhibition prolongs short-term memory (Quinton, 1978), the results of this experiment indicate that short-term memory is not prolonged by antibiotic drugs that inhibit cerebral protein synthesis. All evidence seems consistent with the hypothesis that short-term memory is protein synthesis independent and that the establishment of long-term memory depends upon protein synthesis during or shortly after training. Evidence for a role of protein synthesis in memory maintenance is discussed.

  11. Short-term robustness of production management systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.; Gaury, E.G.A.

    1998-01-01

    Short-term performance of a production management system for make-to-stock factories may be quantified through the service rate per shift; long-term performance through the average monthly work in process (WIP). This may yield, for example, that WIP is minimized, while the probability of the service

  12. 22 CFR 62.21 - Short-term scholars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Short-term scholars. 62.21 Section 62.21 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE PUBLIC DIPLOMACY AND EXCHANGES EXCHANGE VISITOR PROGRAM Specific... programs, confer on common problems and projects, and promote professional relationships and communications...

  13. Short-term energy outlook annual supplement, 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

  14. Short-term feeding strategies and pork quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geesink, G.H.; Buren, van R.G.C.; Savenije, B.; Verstegen, M.W.A.; Ducro, B.J.; Palen, van der J.G.P.; Hemke, G.

    2004-01-01

    Two experiments were done to determine whether short-term supplementation (5 days pre-slaughter) with magnesium acetate, or a combination of magnesium acetate, tryptophan, vitamin E and vitamin C would improve pork quality. In the first experiment the pigs (Pietrain x Yorkshire, n = 96) were fed a

  15. Retention interval affects visual short-term memory encoding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bankó, Eva M; Vidnyánszky, Zoltán

    2010-03-01

    Humans can efficiently store fine-detailed facial emotional information in visual short-term memory for several seconds. However, an unresolved question is whether the same neural mechanisms underlie high-fidelity short-term memory for emotional expressions at different retention intervals. Here we show that retention interval affects the neural processes of short-term memory encoding using a delayed facial emotion discrimination task. The early sensory P100 component of the event-related potentials (ERP) was larger in the 1-s interstimulus interval (ISI) condition than in the 6-s ISI condition, whereas the face-specific N170 component was larger in the longer ISI condition. Furthermore, the memory-related late P3b component of the ERP responses was also modulated by retention interval: it was reduced in the 1-s ISI as compared with the 6-s condition. The present findings cannot be explained based on differences in sensory processing demands or overall task difficulty because there was no difference in the stimulus information and subjects' performance between the two different ISI conditions. These results reveal that encoding processes underlying high-precision short-term memory for facial emotional expressions are modulated depending on whether information has to be stored for one or for several seconds.

  16. Decay uncovered in nonverbal short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Tom; McKeown, Denis

    2014-02-01

    Decay theory posits that memory traces gradually fade away over the passage of time unless they are actively rehearsed. Much recent work exploring verbal short-term memory has challenged this theory, but there does appear to be evidence for trace decay in nonverbal auditory short-term memory. Numerous discrimination studies have reported a performance decline as the interval separating two tones is increased, consistent with a decay process. However, most of this tone comparison research can be explained in other ways, without reference to decay, and these alternative accounts were tested in the present study. In Experiment 1, signals were employed toward the end of extended retention intervals to ensure that listeners were alert to the presence and frequency content of the memoranda. In Experiment 2, a mask stimulus was employed in an attempt to distinguish between a highly detailed sensory trace and a longer-lasting short-term memory, and the distinctiveness of the stimuli was varied. Despite these precautions, slow-acting trace decay was observed. It therefore appears that the mere passage of time can lead to forgetting in some forms of short-term memory.

  17. Managing Transit Ridership with Short-Term Economic Incentives

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    It is the purpose of this booklet to give the reader an overview of the variety, : type, and nature of short-term economic incentive programs that have been : introduced by transit properties over the past few years. 3054k, 55p.

  18. Short-Term Memory, Executive Control, and Children's Route Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Harry R. M.; Farran, Emily K.; Courbois, Yannick; Lemahieu, Axelle; Mellier, Daniel; Sockeel, Pascal; Blades, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate route-learning ability in 67 children aged 5 to 11 years and to relate route-learning performance to the components of Baddeley's model of working memory. Children carried out tasks that included measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory and executive control and also measures of verbal and…

  19. Stacking Ensemble Learning for Short-Term Electricity Consumption Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federico Divina

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The ability to predict short-term electric energy demand would provide several benefits, both at the economic and environmental level. For example, it would allow for an efficient use of resources in order to face the actual demand, reducing the costs associated to the production as well as the emission of CO 2 . To this aim, in this paper we propose a strategy based on ensemble learning in order to tackle the short-term load forecasting problem. In particular, our approach is based on a stacking ensemble learning scheme, where the predictions produced by three base learning methods are used by a top level method in order to produce final predictions. We tested the proposed scheme on a dataset reporting the energy consumption in Spain over more than nine years. The obtained experimental results show that an approach for short-term electricity consumption forecasting based on ensemble learning can help in combining predictions produced by weaker learning methods in order to obtain superior results. In particular, the system produces a lower error with respect to the existing state-of-the art techniques used on the same dataset. More importantly, this case study has shown that using an ensemble scheme can achieve very accurate predictions, and thus that it is a suitable approach for addressing the short-term load forecasting problem.

  20. Short-term outcomes following laparoscopic resection for colon cancer.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kavanagh, Dara O

    2011-03-01

    Laparoscopic resection for colon cancer has been proven to have a similar oncological efficacy compared to open resection. Despite this, it is performed by a minority of colorectal surgeons. The aim of our study was to evaluate the short-term clinical, oncological and survival outcomes in all patients undergoing laparoscopic resection for colon cancer.

  1. Scalable data-driven short-term traffic prediction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Friso, K.; Wismans, L. J.J.; Tijink, M. B.

    2017-01-01

    Short-term traffic prediction has a lot of potential for traffic management. However, most research has traditionally focused on either traffic models-which do not scale very well to large networks, computationally-or on data-driven methods for freeways, leaving out urban arterials completely. Urban

  2. Improving creativity performance by short-term meditation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background One form of meditation intervention, the integrative body-mind training (IBMT) has been shown to improve attention, reduce stress and change self-reports of mood. In this paper we examine whether short-term IBMT can improve performance related to creativity and determine the role that mood may play in such improvement. Methods Forty Chinese undergraduates were randomly assigned to short-term IBMT group or a relaxation training (RT) control group. Mood and creativity performance were assessed by the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule (PANAS) and Torrance Tests of Creative Thinking (TTCT) questionnaire respectively. Results As predicted, the results indicated that short-term (30 min per day for 7 days) IBMT improved creativity performance on the divergent thinking task, and yielded better emotional regulation than RT. In addition, cross-lagged analysis indicated that both positive and negative affect may influence creativity in IBMT group (not RT group). Conclusions Our results suggested that emotion-related creativity-promoting mechanism may be attributed to short-term meditation. PMID:24645871

  3. Labeling, Rehearsal, and Short-Term Memory in Retarded Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, John W.; And Others

    1974-01-01

    A short-term memory task was used to explore the effects of verbal labeling and rehearsal on serial-position recall in mildly retarded 9-to 11-year-old children. Results support the view that verbal skills affect recall in mildly retarded children similarly to normal children. (Author/SDH)

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook: Quarterly projections. Fourth quarter 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1993-11-05

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the third quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications.

  5. Short-term mechanisms influencing volumetric brain dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieleman, Nikki; Koek, Huiberdina L.; Hendrikse, Jeroen

    2017-01-01

    With the use of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and brain analysis tools, it has become possible to measure brain volume changes up to around 0.5%. Besides long-term brain changes caused by atrophy in aging or neurodegenerative disease, short-term mechanisms that influence brain volume may exist.

  6. Short-term variations of radiocarbon during the last century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burchuladze, A.A.; Pagava, S.V.; Jurina, V.; Povinec, P.; Usacev, S.

    1982-01-01

    Radiocarbon variations related to the 11-year solar cycle during the last century are discussed. Previous investigations on short term 14 C variations in tree rings are compared with 14 C measurements in Georgian wine samples. The amplitude of 14 C variations as obtained by various authors ranges from 0.2 to about 1%. (author)

  7. Proactive Interference in Short-Term Recognition and Recall Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Richard F.; Petrusic, William M.

    1972-01-01

    Purpose of study was to (a) compare the rate of increase of proactive interference over the first few trials under recall and recognition memory test conditions, (2) determine the effects of two types of distractors on short-term recognition, and (3) test memory after proactive interference had reached a stable level under each of three test…

  8. Short-Term Effects of Televised Aggression on Children's Behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebert, Robert M.; Baron, Robert A.

    Recently collected data appear to warrant advancing some tentative conslusions concerning the short-term effects of violence in television on children: 1) children are exposed to a substantial amount of violent content on television, and they can remember and learn from such exposure; 2) correlational studies have disclosed a regular association…

  9. Short term clinical outcome of children with rotavirus infection at ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Rotavirus infection is the single most common cause of acute gastroenteritis in children under five years of age. Rotavirus gastroenteritis has a high morbidity and mortality in children in Kenya. Objectives: To determine the short term clinical outcome for children admitted to Kenyatta National Hospital with ...

  10. Short-term effects of radiation in gliolalstoma spheroids

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petterson, Stine Asferg; Jakobsen, Ida Pind; Jensen, Stine Skov

    2016-01-01

    was to investigate the short-term effects of radiation of spheroids containing tumor-initiating stem-like cells. We used a patient-derived glioblastoma stem cell enriched culture (T76) and the standard glioblastoma cell line U87. Primary spheroids were irradiated with doses between 2 and 50 Gy and assessed after two...

  11. Panorama 2012 - Short-term trends in the gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecarpentier, Armelle

    2011-12-01

    Against the background of an energy market beset by the Fukushima crisis, the Arab spring and economic uncertainty, 2011 saw dynamic growth in demand for natural gas, although developments varied widely from region to region. New trends are emerging in the gas market, and these will have both short-term and longer-term impacts on how the industry develops. (author)

  12. Insulin Resistance Induced by Short term Fructose Feeding may not ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Fructose feeding causes insulin resistance and invariably Non-Insulin Dependent Diabetes Mellitus (NIDDM) in rats and genetically predisposed humans. The effect of insulin resistance induced by short term fructose feeding on fertility in female rats was investigated using the following parameters: oestrous phase and ...

  13. Histopathologic characteristics and short-term outcomes of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: Colorectal carcinoma (CRC) is generally a disease of persons older than 40 years. Concerning younger patients, controversies still exist regarding features and prognosis of CRC. We performed this study to characterise CRC in young patients (≤40 years) as well as to evaluate short-term outcome in ...

  14. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, Third quarter 1992

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-08-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The principal users of the Outlook are managers and energy analysts in private industry and government. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1992 through the fourth quarter of 1993. Values for the second quarter of 1992, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data are EIA data published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding

  15. Orienting attention to objects in visual short-term memory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dell'Acqua, Roberto; Sessa, Paola; Toffanin, Paolo; Luria, Roy; Joliccoeur, Pierre

    We measured electroencephalographic activity during visual search of a target object among objects available to perception or among objects held in visual short-term memory (VSTM). For perceptual search, a single shape was shown first (pre-cue) followed by a search-array and the task was to decide

  16. SHORT-TERM EFFECT OF DIESEL OIL ON PHYTOPLANKTON

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. EKWEME

    Short-term effect of Nigerian diesel oil was tested on the phytoplankton species in Great Kwa River ... aquatic environment. Plant life is the basis of all food web in nature and hence constitutes the makes this fundamental contribution by photosynthesis, utilizing radiant energy to .... (2 cells/ml) re-colonized the area. The three ...

  17. Are there multiple visual short-term memory stores?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sligte, I.G.; Scholte, H.S.; Lamme, V.A.F.

    2008-01-01

    Background: Classic work on visual short-term memory (VSTM) suggests that people store a limited amount of items for subsequent report. However, when human observers are cued to shift attention to one item in VSTM during retention, it seems as if there is a much larger representation, which keeps

  18. Short Term Group Counseling of Visually Impaired People by Telephone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaureguy, Beth M.; Evans, Ron L.

    1983-01-01

    Short term group counseling via the telephone resulted in marked increases in activities of daily living among 12 legally blind veterans. Many subjects' personal coping goals were met as well, and social involvement also increased. No significant changes in levels of depression or agitation were noted. (CL)

  19. Relationship between short-term sexual strategies and sexual jealousy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathes, Eugene W

    2005-02-01

    In a classic study, Buss, Larson, Westen, and Semmelroth reported that men were more distressed by the thought of a partner's sexual infidelity (sexual jealousy) and women were more distressed by the thought of a partner's emotional infidelity (emotional jealousy). Initially, Buss and his associates explained these results by suggesting that men are concerned about uncertainty of paternity, that is, the possibility of raising another man's child while believing the child is their own. However, later they explained the results in terms of men's preference for short-term sexual strategies. The purpose of this research was to test the explanation of short-term sexual strategies. Men and women subjects were instructed to imagine themselves in a relationship which was either short-term (primarily sexual) or long-term (involving commitment) and then respond to Buss's jealousy items. It was hypothesized that, when both men and women imagined a short-term relationship, they would be more threatened by a partner's sexual infidelity, and, when they imagined a long-term relationship, they would be more threatened by a partner's emotional infidelity. Support was found for this hypothesis.

  20. High-intensity exercise and recovery during short-term ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective. To determine the effect of short-term creatine supplementation plus a protein-carbohydrate formula on high-intensity exercise performance and recovery. Design. A repeated-measures, experimental study, employing a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled, group comparison design was used.

  1. Can Metabolic Factors be used Prognostically for Short.Term ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    to be promising short.term mortality markers in HIV patients apart from established factors like low CD4 counts, co.morbid conditions, and opportunistic infections like M. tuberculosis infection. This study warrants further studies with a larger sample size to establish HDL and triglyceride as markers of disease progression and ...

  2. Standardizing the performance evaluation of short-term wind prediction models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, G.

    2005-01-01

    Short-term wind power prediction is a primary requirement for efficient large-scale integration of wind generation in power systems and electricity markets. The choice of an appropriate prediction model among the numerous available models is not trivial, and has to be based on an objective...... evaluation of model performance. This paper proposes a standardized protocol for the evaluation of short-term wind-poser preciction systems. A number of reference prediction models are also described, and their use for performance comparison is analysed. The use of the protocol is demonstrated using results...... from both on-shore and off-shore wind forms. The work was developed in the frame of the Anemos project (EU R&D project) where the protocol has been used to evaluate more than 10 prediction systems....

  3. Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K; Cohen, Joel E

    2016-02-29

    Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from 'outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954-2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related.

  4. Measuring, Predicting and Visualizing Short-Term Change in Word Representation and Usage in VKontakte Social Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stewart, Ian B.; Arendt, Dustin L.; Bell, Eric B.; Volkova, Svitlana

    2017-05-17

    Language in social media is extremely dynamic: new words emerge, trend and disappear, while the meaning of existing words can fluctuate over time. This work addresses several important tasks of visualizing and predicting short term text representation shift, i.e. the change in a word’s contextual semantics. We study the relationship between short-term concept drift and representation shift on a large social media corpus – VKontakte collected during the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2014 – 2015. We visualize short-term representation shift for example keywords and build predictive models to forecast short-term shifts in meaning from previous meaning as well as from concept drift. We show that short-term representation shift can be accurately predicted up to several weeks in advance and that visualization provides insight into meaning change. Our approach can be used to explore and characterize specific aspects of the streaming corpus during crisis events and potentially improve other downstream classification tasks including real-time event forecasting in social media.

  5. Short-Term Wind Speed Hybrid Forecasting Model Based on Bias Correcting Study and Its Application

    OpenAIRE

    Mingfei Niu; Shaolong Sun; Jie Wu; Yuanlei Zhang

    2015-01-01

    The accuracy of wind speed forecasting is becoming increasingly important to improve and optimize renewable wind power generation. In particular, reliable short-term wind speed forecasting can enable model predictive control of wind turbines and real-time optimization of wind farm operation. However, due to the strong stochastic nature and dynamic uncertainty of wind speed, the forecasting of wind speed data using different patterns is difficult. This paper proposes a novel combination bias c...

  6. Anisotropic power spectrum of refractive-index fluctuation in hypersonic turbulence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiangting; Yang, Shaofei; Guo, Lixin; Cheng, Mingjian

    2016-11-10

    An anisotropic power spectrum of the refractive-index fluctuation in hypersonic turbulence was obtained by processing the experimental image of the hypersonic plasma sheath and transforming the generalized anisotropic von Kármán spectrum. The power spectrum suggested here can provide as good a fit to measured spectrum data for hypersonic turbulence as that recorded from the nano-planar laser scattering image. Based on the newfound anisotropic hypersonic turbulence power spectrum, Rytov approximation was employed to establish the wave structure function and the spatial coherence radius model of electromagnetic beam propagation in hypersonic turbulence. Enhancing the anisotropy characteristics of the hypersonic turbulence led to a significant improvement in the propagation performance of electromagnetic beams in hypersonic plasma sheath. The influence of hypersonic turbulence on electromagnetic beams increases with the increase of variance of the refractive-index fluctuation and the decrease of turbulence outer scale and anisotropy parameters. The spatial coherence radius was much smaller than that in atmospheric turbulence. These results are fundamental to understanding electromagnetic wave propagation in hypersonic turbulence.

  7. Ordered Short-Term Memory Differs in Signers and Speakers: Implications for Models of Short-Term Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers ([Boutla, M., Supalla, T., Newport, E. L., & Bavelier, D.…

  8. TMI-2 Lessons Learned Task Force status report and short-term recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1979-07-01

    Review of the Three Mile Island accident by the TMI-2 Lessons Learned Task Force has disclosed a number of actions in the areas of design and analysis and plant operations that the Task Force recommends be required in the short term to provide substantial additional protection which is required for the public health and safety. All nuclear power plants in operation or in various stages of construction or licensing action are affected to varying degrees by the specific recommendations. The Task Force is continuing work in areas of general safety criteria, systems design requirements, nuclear power plant operations, and nuclear power plant licensing

  9. Relation of the second law of thermodynamics to the power conversion of energy fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yater, J.C.

    1979-01-01

    The relation of the second law of thermodynamics to the power conversion of fluctuation energy is analyzed using the master equation of the model for the conversion circuit. The performance equation for independent particles shows that the power-conversion performance is given by the second law both for classical and quantum-effect diodes. The relation of the second law to power-conversion models based on the theoretical and experimental results for diode performance for interacting particles exhibiting many-body, multiparticle, or other anomalous and excess-current effects is examined. The performance equations are derived from the master equation for models for interacting particles to determine the conditions required by the second law for power conversion. These conditions are given in terms of the distribution throughout the power-conversion circuit for all the parameters that determine the particle and multiparticle barrier-crossing probability such as the effective mass and spectral density functions. Circuits for spectroscopic measurements for power-conversion circuits with interacting particles are noted. Using selected experimental values for the diode nonlinearity factors in these circuits, open circuit voltages are computed that are not predicted by the second law of thermodynamics

  10. Hsp70 expression and metabolite composition in response to short-term thermal changes in Folsomia candida (Collembola)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Waagner, Dorthe; Heckmann, Lars-Henrik; Malmendal, Anders

    2010-01-01

    In the present study the joint transcriptomic and metabolomic responses in Folsomia candida (Collembola) to temperature changes on a short-term scale were studied. Change in heat tolerance was examined as survival after a 35 degrees C heat shock (2h) in the course of either a fluctuating temperat......In the present study the joint transcriptomic and metabolomic responses in Folsomia candida (Collembola) to temperature changes on a short-term scale were studied. Change in heat tolerance was examined as survival after a 35 degrees C heat shock (2h) in the course of either a fluctuating...... analysed in F. candida using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy ((1)H NMR). A significant metabolomic divergence between pre-treated and control collembolans was evident; partly due to a significantly reduced relative concentration of five free amino acids (arginine, leucine, lysine, phenylalanine...

  11. Prediction of Francis Turbine Prototype Part Load Pressure and Output Power Fluctuations with Hydroelectric Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alligné, S.; Nicolet, C.; Béguin, A.; Landry, C.; Gomes, J.; Avellan, F.

    2017-04-01

    The prediction of pressure and output power fluctuations amplitudes on Francis turbine prototype is a challenge for hydro-equipment industry since it is subjected to guarantees to ensure smooth and reliable operation of the hydro units. The European FP7 research project Hyperbole aims to setup a methodology to transpose the pressure fluctuations induced by the cavitation vortex rope from the reduced scale model to the prototype generating units. A Francis turbine unit of 444MW with a specific speed value of ν = 0.29, is considered as case study. A SIMSEN model of the power station including electrical system, controllers, rotating train and hydraulic system with transposed draft tube excitation sources is setup. Based on this model, a frequency analysis of the hydroelectric system is performed for all technologies to analyse potential interactions between hydraulic excitation sources and electrical components. Three technologies have been compared: the classical fixed speed configuration with Synchronous Machine (SM) and the two variable speed technologies which are Doubly Fed Induction Machine (DFIM) and Full Size Frequency Converter (FSFC).

  12. Spectral decomposition of regulatory thresholds for climate-driven fluctuations in hydro- and wind power availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wörman, A.; Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Zmijewski, N.; Riml, J.

    2017-08-01

    Climate-driven fluctuations in the runoff and potential energy of surface water are generally large in comparison to the capacity of hydropower regulation, particularly when hydropower is used to balance the electricity production from covarying renewable energy sources such as wind power. To define the bounds of reservoir storage capacity, we introduce a dedicated reservoir volume that aggregates the storage capacity of several reservoirs to handle runoff from specific watersheds. We show how the storage bounds can be related to a spectrum of the climate-driven modes of variability in water availability and to the covariation between water and wind availability. A regional case study of the entire hydropower system in Sweden indicates that the longest regulation period possible to consider spans from a few days of individual subwatersheds up to several years, with an average limit of a couple of months. Watershed damping of the runoff substantially increases the longest considered regulation period and capacity. The high covariance found between the potential energy of the surface water and wind energy significantly reduces the longest considered regulation period when hydropower is used to balance the fluctuating wind power.

  13. Harmonic Injection-Based Power Fluctuation Control of Three-Phase PV Systems under Unbalanced Grid Voltage Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nian-Cheng Zhou

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Unbalanced voltage will inevitably cause power and DC voltage fluctuations in a three-phase PV system. The deterioration of power quality will do great harm to the PV panels and the loads, so it is necessary to suppress the power fluctuations. This paper further explores the coefficients control strategy of PV converters under unbalanced voltage conditions, aiming to suppress power fluctuations by controlling the injection of some specific orders of current harmonics into the grid. In order to achieve this, the current reference of the PV inverter has been changed by bringing in two control coefficients, and the expression of each order of the current harmonics has been deduced. Based on the standards of PV systems, the regions from which the coefficients can be selected are determined. Then, by tuning these coefficients in the feasible regions, the output parameters (power fluctuation, current THD and odd harmonics can be controlled precisely. The model of this method is built and simulated in PSCAD/EMTDC, and as a result, it is shown that the power fluctuations can be restricted according to different power quality requirements.

  14. Adaptive modelling and forecasting of offshore wind power fluctuations with Markov-switching autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    optimized is based on penalized maximum-likelihood, with exponential forgetting of past observations. MSAR models are then employed for 1-step-ahead point forecasting of 10-minute resolution time-series of wind power at two large offshore wind farms. They are favourably compared against persistence and Auto......Wind power production data at temporal resolutions of a few minutes exhibits successive periods with fluctuations of various dynamic nature and magnitude, which cannot be explained (so far) by the evolution of some explanatory variable. Our proposal is to capture this regime-switching behaviour......Regressive (AR) models. It is finally shown that the main interest of MSAR models lies in their ability to generate interval/density forecasts of significantly higher skill....

  15. Adaptive modelling and forecasting of offshore wind power fluctuations with Markov-switching autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    optimized is based on penalized maximum likelihood, with exponential forgetting of past observations. MSAR models are then employed for one-step-ahead point forecasting of 10 min resolution time series of wind power at two large offshore wind farms. They are favourably compared against persistence......Wind power production data at temporal resolutions of a few minutes exhibit successive periods with fluctuations of various dynamic nature and magnitude, which cannot be explained (so far) by the evolution of some explanatory variable. Our proposal is to capture this regime-switching behaviour...... and autoregressive models. It is finally shown that the main interest of MSAR models lies in their ability to generate interval/density forecasts of significantly higher skill....

  16. Visual dot interaction with short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Etindele Sosso, Faustin Armel

    2017-06-01

    Many neurodegenerative diseases have a memory component. Brain structures related to memory are affected by environmental stimuli, and it is difficult to dissociate effects of all behavior of neurons. Here, visual cortex of mice was stimulated with gratings and dot, and an observation of neuronal activity before and after was made. Bandwidth, firing rate and orientation selectivity index were evaluated. A primary communication between primary visual cortex and short-term memory appeared to show an interesting path to train cognitive circuitry and investigate the basics mechanisms of the neuronal learning. The findings also suggested the interplay between primary visual cortex and short-term plasticity. The properties inside a visual target shape the perception and affect the basic encoding. Using visual cortex, it may be possible to train the memory and improve the recovery of people with cognitive disabilities or memory deficit.

  17. Short-term uranium price formation: a methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hsieh, L.Y.; de Graffenried, C.L.

    1987-01-01

    One of the major problems in analyzing the short-term uranium market is the lack of a well-defined spot market price. The two primary sources of price data covering the US uranium market are the series published by the US Dept. of Energy (DOE) and by the Nuclear Exchange Corporation (NUEXCO), a private brokerage firm. Because of the differences in both definition and coverage, these two series are not directly comparable. In this study, an econometric model was developed for analyzing the interrelationship between short-term uranium price (NUEXCO exchange value), supply, demand, and future price expectations formed by market participants. The validity of this model has been demonstrated by the fact that all simulation statistics derived are highly significant. Three forecasting scenarios were developed in this study

  18. Short-term fasting protects mice against γ ray radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu Shengnan; Gu Xiuling; Song Lian; Tong Jian; Li Jianxiang

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the antagonistic effects of short-term fasting against 60 Co γ ray radiation. Methods: After fasting ICR mice were irradiated for 3 min at a dose rate of 2.5 Gy/min and then returned to normal diet. General situation, body weight changes, food consumption and toxic status were observed. WBC, organ index and anti-oxidative ability (ROS, SOD, MDA, T-AOC) were analyzed. Results: After 60 Co γ ray radiation, the mice exhibited severe toxic symptoms before death. The survival rates were 0 for control and 12 h group, 12.5% for 48 h group and 50% for 72 h group respectively. ROS production of 72 h group was reduced compared with 0 h group (P<0.05). Conclusion: Short-term fasting may attenuate radiation induced injuries, evidenced by a significant increase in mice survival rate. (authors)

  19. Short-term synaptic plasticity and heterogeneity in neural systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mejias, J. F.; Kappen, H. J.; Longtin, A.; Torres, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    We review some recent results on neural dynamics and information processing which arise when considering several biophysical factors of interest, in particular, short-term synaptic plasticity and neural heterogeneity. The inclusion of short-term synaptic plasticity leads to enhanced long-term memory capacities, a higher robustness of memory to noise, and irregularity in the duration of the so-called up cortical states. On the other hand, considering some level of neural heterogeneity in neuron models allows neural systems to optimize information transmission in rate coding and temporal coding, two strategies commonly used by neurons to codify information in many brain areas. In all these studies, analytical approximations can be made to explain the underlying dynamics of these neural systems.

  20. The epidemiology of long- and short-term cancer survivors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jarlbæk, Lene; Christensen, Linda; Bruera, Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    Introduction. In this study, we present data from a population-based cohort of incident cancer patients separated in long- and short-term survivors. Our aim was to procure denominators for use in the planning of rehabilitation and palliative care programs. Material and methods. A registry......-linkage cohort study. All cancer patients, diagnosed from 1993 to 2003 from a 470 000 large population, were followed individually from diagnosis to death or until 31 December 2008. Long-term survivors lived five years or more after the time of the cancer diagnosis (TOCD). Short-term survivors died less than...... and sex. Two-year crude cancer survival seems as a clinically relevant cut point for characterizing potential "denominators" for rehabilitation or palliative care programs. From this cohort of incident cancer patients, and using two-year survival as a cut point, it could be estimated that 54% would...

  1. A neuromorphic circuit mimicking biological short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barzegarjalali, Saeid; Parker, Alice C

    2016-08-01

    Research shows that the way we remember things for a few seconds is a different mechanism from the way we remember things for a longer time. Short-term memory is based on persistently firing neurons, whereas storing information for a longer time is based on strengthening the synapses or even forming new neural connections. Information about location and appearance of an object is segregated and processed by separate neurons. Furthermore neurons can continue firing using different mechanisms. Here, we have designed a biomimetic neuromorphic circuit that mimics short-term memory by firing neurons, using biological mechanisms to remember location and shape of an object. Our neuromorphic circuit has a hybrid architecture. Neurons are designed with CMOS 45nm technology and synapses are designed with carbon nanotubes (CNT).

  2. Measuring, Predicting and Visualizing Short-Term Change in Word Representation and Usage in VKontakte Social Network

    OpenAIRE

    Stewart, Ian; Arendt, Dustin; Bell, Eric; Volkova, Svitlana

    2017-01-01

    Language in social media is extremely dynamic: new words emerge, trend and disappear, while the meaning of existing words can fluctuate over time. Such dynamics are especially notable during a period of crisis. This work addresses several important tasks of measuring, visualizing and predicting short term text representation shift, i.e. the change in a word's contextual semantics, and contrasting such shift with surface level word dynamics, or concept drift, observed in social media streams. ...

  3. Short-term supervised inpatient physiotherapy exercise protocol improves cardiac autonomic function after coronary artery bypass graft surgery--a randomised controlled trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendes, Renata Gonçalves; Simões, Rodrigo Polaquini; De Souza Melo Costa, Fernando; Pantoni, Camila Bianca Falasco; Di Thommazo, Luciana; Luzzi, Sérgio; Catai, Aparecida Maria; Arena, Ross; Borghi-Silva, Audrey

    2010-01-01

    Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is accompanied by severe impairment of cardiac autonomous regulation (CAR). This study aimed to determine whether a short-term physiotherapy exercise protocol post-CABG, during inpatient cardiac rehabilitation (CR), might improve CAR. Seventy-four patients eligible for CABG were recruited and randomised into physiotherapy exercise group (EG) or physiotherapy usual care group (UCG). EG patients underwent a short-term supervised inpatient physiotherapy exercise protocol consisting of an early mobilisation with progressive exercises plus usual care (respiratory exercises). UCG only received respiratory exercises. Forty-seven patients (24 EG and 23 UGC) completed the study. Outcome measures of CAR included linear and non-linear measures of heart rate variability (HRV) assessed before discharge. By hospital discharge, EG presented significantly higher parasympathetic HRV values [rMSSD, high frequency (HF), SD1)], global power (STD RR, SD2), non-linear HRV indexes [detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA)alpha1, DFAalpha2, approximate entropy (ApEn)] and mean RR compared to UCG (pexercise protocol during inpatient CR improves CAR at the time of discharge. Thus, exercise-based inpatient CR might be an effective non-pharmacological tool to improve autonomic cardiac tone in patient's post-CABG.

  4. Management of fluctuations in wind power and CHP comparing two possible Danish strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lund, H.; Clark, W.W.

    2002-01-01

    Both CHP (combined heat and power production) and wind power are important elements of Danish energy policy. Today, approximately 50% of both the Danish electricity and heat demand are produced in CHP and more than 15% of the electricity demand is produced by wind turbines. Both technologies are essential for the implementation of Danish climate change response objectives, and both technologies are intended for further expansion in the coming decade. Meanwhile, the integration of CHP and wind power is subject to fluctuations in electricity production. Wind turbines depend on the wind, and CHP depends on the heat demand. This article discusses and analyses two different national strategies for solving this problem. One strategy, which is the current official government policy known as the export strategy, proposes to take advantage of the Nordic and European markets for selling and buying electricity. In this case, surplus electricity from wind power and CHP simply will be sold to neighbouring countries. Another strategy, the self-supply strategy, runs the CHP units to meet both demand and the fluctuations in the wind scheduling. In this case, investments in heat storages are necessary and heat pumps have to be added to the CHP units. Based on official Danish energy policy and energy plans, this article quantifies the problem for the year 2015 in terms of the amount of surplus electricity, and investments in heat pumps, etc. needed to solve the problem are calculated. Based on these results between the two different strategies, the conclusion is that the self-supply strategy is recommended over the official export strategy. (author)

  5. Short-term depression and transient memory in sensory cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillary, Grant; Heydt, Rüdiger von der; Niebur, Ernst

    2017-12-01

    Persistent neuronal activity is usually studied in the context of short-term memory localized in central cortical areas. Recent studies show that early sensory areas also can have persistent representations of stimuli which emerge quickly (over tens of milliseconds) and decay slowly (over seconds). Traditional positive feedback models cannot explain sensory persistence for at least two reasons: (i) They show attractor dynamics, with transient perturbations resulting in a quasi-permanent change of system state, whereas sensory systems return to the original state after a transient. (ii) As we show, those positive feedback models which decay to baseline lose their persistence when their recurrent connections are subject to short-term depression, a common property of excitatory connections in early sensory areas. Dual time constant network behavior has also been implemented by nonlinear afferents producing a large transient input followed by much smaller steady state input. We show that such networks require unphysiologically large onset transients to produce the rise and decay observed in sensory areas. Our study explores how memory and persistence can be implemented in another model class, derivative feedback networks. We show that these networks can operate with two vastly different time courses, changing their state quickly when new information is coming in but retaining it for a long time, and that these capabilities are robust to short-term depression. Specifically, derivative feedback networks with short-term depression that acts differentially on positive and negative feedback projections are capable of dynamically changing their time constant, thus allowing fast onset and slow decay of responses without requiring unrealistically large input transients.

  6. Short-term electric load forecasting using computational intelligence methods

    OpenAIRE

    Jurado, Sergio; Peralta, J.; Nebot, Àngela; Mugica, Francisco; Cortez, Paulo

    2013-01-01

    Accurate time series forecasting is a key issue to support individual and organizational decision making. In this paper, we introduce several methods for short-term electric load forecasting. All the presented methods stem from computational intelligence techniques: Random Forest, Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Networks, Evolutionary Support Vector Machines and Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning. The performance of the suggested methods is experimentally justified with several experiments carried out...

  7. The Development of Rehearsal in Verbal Short-Term Memory

    OpenAIRE

    Jarrold, Christopher; Hall, Debbora

    2013-01-01

    Verbal short-term memory, as indexed by immediate serial recall tasks (in which participants must recall several stimuli in order, immediately after presentation), develops considerably across middle childhood. One explanation for this age-related change is that children's ability to rehearse verbal material increases during this period, and one particularly influential version of this account is that only older children engage in any form of rehearsal. In this article, we critique evidence t...

  8. Short-term Forecasting Tools for Agricultural Nutrient Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easton, Zachary M; Kleinman, Peter J A; Buda, Anthony R; Goering, Dustin; Emberston, Nichole; Reed, Seann; Drohan, Patrick J; Walter, M Todd; Guinan, Pat; Lory, John A; Sommerlot, Andrew R; Sharpley, Andrew

    2017-11-01

    The advent of real-time, short-term farm management tools is motivated by the need to protect water quality above and beyond the general guidance offered by existing nutrient management plans. Advances in high-performance computing and hydrologic or climate modeling have enabled rapid dissemination of real-time information that can assist landowners and conservation personnel with short-term management planning. This paper reviews short-term decision support tools for agriculture that are under various stages of development and implementation in the United States: (i) Wisconsin's Runoff Risk Advisory Forecast (RRAF) System, (ii) New York's Hydrologically Sensitive Area Prediction Tool, (iii) Virginia's Saturated Area Forecast Model, (iv) Pennsylvania's Fertilizer Forecaster, (v) Washington's Application Risk Management (ARM) System, and (vi) Missouri's Design Storm Notification System. Although these decision support tools differ in their underlying model structure, the resolution at which they are applied, and the hydroclimates to which they are relevant, all provide forecasts (range 24-120 h) of runoff risk or soil moisture saturation derived from National Weather Service Forecast models. Although this review highlights the need for further development of robust and well-supported short-term nutrient management tools, their potential for adoption and ultimate utility requires an understanding of the appropriate context of application, the strategic and operational needs of managers, access to weather forecasts, scales of application (e.g., regional vs. field level), data requirements, and outreach communication structure. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  9. Auditory short-term memory activation during score reading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simoens, Veerle L; Tervaniemi, Mari

    2013-01-01

    Performing music on the basis of reading a score requires reading ahead of what is being played in order to anticipate the necessary actions to produce the notes. Score reading thus not only involves the decoding of a visual score and the comparison to the auditory feedback, but also short-term storage of the musical information due to the delay of the auditory feedback during reading ahead. This study investigates the mechanisms of encoding of musical information in short-term memory during such a complicated procedure. There were three parts in this study. First, professional musicians participated in an electroencephalographic (EEG) experiment to study the slow wave potentials during a time interval of short-term memory storage in a situation that requires cross-modal translation and short-term storage of visual material to be compared with delayed auditory material, as it is the case in music score reading. This delayed visual-to-auditory matching task was compared with delayed visual-visual and auditory-auditory matching tasks in terms of EEG topography and voltage amplitudes. Second, an additional behavioural experiment was performed to determine which type of distractor would be the most interfering with the score reading-like task. Third, the self-reported strategies of the participants were also analyzed. All three parts of this study point towards the same conclusion according to which during music score reading, the musician most likely first translates the visual score into an auditory cue, probably starting around 700 or 1300 ms, ready for storage and delayed comparison with the auditory feedback.

  10. Short-term marginal costs in French agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Latruffe, Laure; LETORT, Elodie

    2011-01-01

    The paper investigates short-term marginal costs in French agriculture for field cropping, beef cattle, and dairy farms during the period 1995-2006. The multi-input multi-output Symmetric Generalised MacFadden cost function is used, with three variable inputs (crop-specific, animal-specific, energy costs), four outputs and three quasi-fixed inputs. Results indicate that marginal costs are on average lower for crop farms than for livestock samples. However, for crop farms, Common Agricultural ...

  11. Auditory short-term memory in the primate auditory cortex

    OpenAIRE

    Scott, Brian H.; Mishkin, Mortimer

    2015-01-01

    Sounds are fleeting, and assembling the sequence of inputs at the ear into a coherent percept requires auditory memory across various time scales. Auditory short-term memory comprises at least two components: an active ���working memory��� bolstered by rehearsal, and a sensory trace that may be passively retained. Working memory relies on representations recalled from long-term memory, and their rehearsal may require phonological mechanisms unique to humans. The sensory component, passive sho...

  12. Robust Short-Term Memory without Synaptic Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Samuel; Marro, J.; Torres, Joaquin J.

    2013-01-01

    Short-term memory in the brain cannot in general be explained the way long-term memory can ??? as a gradual modification of synaptic weights ??? since it takes place too quickly. Theories based on some form of cellular bistability, however, do not seem able to account for the fact that noisy neurons can collectively store information in a robust manner. We show how a sufficiently clustered network of simple model neurons can be instantly induced into metastable states capable of retaining inf...

  13. INCAP - Applying short-term flexibility to control inventories

    OpenAIRE

    Lödding , Hermann; Lohmann , Steffen

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Inventory Based Capacity Control (INCAP) is a very simple method that allows inventory levels to be effectively controlled by using short-term capacity flexibility in make-to-stock settings. Moreover, INCAP can be used for finished goods inventories as well as for semi-finished goods inventories. The basic idea is to define upper and lower inventory limits and to adjust capacities if the inventory level reaches either limit. Should the inventory fall below the lower limit,...

  14. Short-term energy outlook. Quarterly projections, first quarter 1995

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-02-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the first quarter of 1995 through the fourth quarter of 1996. Values for the fourth quarter of 1994, however, are preliminary EIA estimates or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled into the first quarter 1995 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS database is archived quarterly and is available from the National Technical Information Service. The cases are produced using the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS). The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. Macroeconomic estimates are produced by DRI/McGraw-Hill but are adjusted by EIA to reflect EIA assumptions about the world price of crude oil, energy product prices, and other assumptions which may affect the macroeconomic outlook. The EIA model is available on computer tape from the National Technical Information Service

  15. Adult neurogenesis supports short-term olfactory memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arenkiel, Benjamin R

    2010-06-01

    Adult neurogenesis has captivated neuroscientists for decades, with hopes that understanding the programs underlying this phenomenon may provide unique insight toward avenues for brain repair. Interestingly, however, despite intense molecular and cellular investigation, the evolutionary roles and biological functions for ongoing neurogenesis have remained elusive. Here I review recent work published in the Journal of Neuroscience that reveals a functional role for continued neurogenesis toward forming short-term olfactory memories.

  16. Cardioprotective Signature of Short-Term Caloric Restriction.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hossein Noyan

    Full Text Available To understand the molecular pathways underlying the cardiac preconditioning effect of short-term caloric restriction (CR.Lifelong CR has been suggested to reduce the incidence of cardiovascular disease through a variety of mechanisms. However, prolonged adherence to a CR life-style is difficult. Here we reveal the pathways that are modulated by short-term CR, which are associated with protection of the mouse heart from ischemia.Male 10-12 wk old C57bl/6 mice were randomly assigned to an ad libitum (AL diet with free access to regular chow, or CR, receiving 30% less food for 7 days (d, prior to myocardial infarction (MI via permanent coronary ligation. At d8, the left ventricles (LV of AL and CR mice were collected for Western blot, mRNA and microRNA (miR analyses to identify cardioprotective gene expression signatures. In separate groups, infarct size, cardiac hemodynamics and protein abundance of caspase 3 was measured at d2 post-MI.This short-term model of CR was associated with cardio-protection, as evidenced by decreased infarct size (18.5±2.4% vs. 26.6±1.7%, N=10/group; P=0.01. mRNA and miR profiles pre-MI (N=5/group identified genes modulated by short-term CR to be associated with circadian clock, oxidative stress, immune function, apoptosis, metabolism, angiogenesis, cytoskeleton and extracellular matrix (ECM. Western blots pre-MI revealed CR-associated increases in phosphorylated Akt and GSK3ß, reduced levels of phosphorylated AMPK and mitochondrial related proteins PGC-1α, cytochrome C and cyclooxygenase (COX IV, with no differences in the levels of phosphorylated eNOS or MAPK (ERK1/2; p38. CR regimen was also associated with reduced protein abundance of cleaved caspase 3 in the infarcted heart and improved cardiac function.

  17. Determinants of Short-Term Export Performance in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz; Osman, Ms.Amber; Habib, Sukaina

    2010-01-01

    This research investigates the interdependency between independent (Increase of pricing strategy adaptation, Increase of export intensity, Firm's commitment to exporting, Export market development, Export market competition, Past Pricing Strategy Adaptation, Past Export Performance Satisfaction, Past Export Intensity, Export market distance) and dependent variables (i.e. Expected Short-Term Export Performance improvement) of export performance. The framework is tested via a survey through que...

  18. The Effects of Music on High-intensity Short-term Exercise in Well Trained Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarraya, Mohamed; Chtourou, Hamdi; Aloui, Asma; Hammouda, Omar; Chamari, Karim; Chaouachi, Anis; Souissi, Nizar

    2012-12-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to assess the effects of listening to music during warm-up on short-term supramaximal performances during the 30-s Wingate test in highly trained athletes. Twelve young male athletes (20.6±1.8 yrs, 177±4.4 cm and 72.3±5.3 kg) underwent two Wingate tests in separate sessions with a recovery period of 48 h in-between, either after a 10 min of warm-up with (MWU) or without (NMWU) music. High tempo music (>120 to 140bpm) was selected for the study. Heart rate (HR) and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) were recorded after the warm-up (for HR = average of warm-up) and immediately after the Wingate test. HR, RPE and the fatigue index during the Wingate test are not affected by the incorporation of music during warm-up. However, power output (P(peak) and P(mean)) was significantly higher after MWU than NMWU (Peffect of music during warm-up on short-term supramaximal performances. As it's a legal method and an additional aid, music may be used during warm-up before performing activities requiring powerful lower limbs' muscles contractions during short-term supramaximal exercises.

  19. Short-term load forecasting by a neuro-fuzzy based approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruey-Hsun Liang; Ching-Chi Cheng [National Yunlin University of Science and Technology (China). Dept. of Electrical Engineering

    2002-02-01

    An approach based on an artificial neural network (ANN) combined with a fuzzy system is proposed for short-term load forecasting. This approach was developed in order to reach the desired short-term load forecasting in an efficient manner. Over the past few years, ANNs have attained the ability to manage a great deal of system complexity and are now being proposed as powerful computational tools. In order to select the appropriate load as the input for the desired forecasting, the Pearson analysis method is first applied to choose two historical record load patterns that are similar to the forecasted load pattern. These two load patterns and the required weather parameters are then fuzzified and input into a neural network for training or testing the network. The back-propagation (BP) neural network is applied to determine the preliminary forecasted load. In addition, the rule base for the fuzzy inference machine contains important linguistic membership function terms with knowledge in the form of fuzzy IF-THEN rules. This produces the load correction inference from the historical information and past forecasted load errors to obtain an inferred load error. Adding the inferred load error to the preliminary forecasted load, we can obtain the finial forecasted load. The effectiveness of the proposed approach to the short-term load-forecasting problem is demonstrated using practical data from the Taiwan Power Company (TPC). (Author)

  20. Smart Demand for Improving Short-term Voltage Control on Distribution Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garcia-Valle, Rodrigo; P. Da Silva, Luiz C.; Xu, Zhao

    2009-01-01

    customer integration to aid power system performance is almost inevitable. This study introduces a new type of smart demand side technology, denoted demand as voltage controlled reserve (DVR), to improve short-term voltage control, where customers are expected to play a more dynamic role to improve voltage...... control. The technology can be provided by thermostatically controlled loads as well as other types of load. This technology is proven to be effective in case of distribution systems with a large composition of induction motors, where the voltage presents a slow recovery characteristic due to deceleration...... of the motors during faults. This study presents detailed models, discussion and simulation tests to demonstrate the technical viability and effectiveness of the DVR technology for short-term voltage control....

  1. Frequency-specific insight into short-term memory capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feurra, Matteo; Galli, Giulia; Pavone, Enea Francesco; Rossi, Alessandro; Rossi, Simone

    2016-07-01

    The digit span is one of the most widely used memory tests in clinical and experimental neuropsychology for reliably measuring short-term memory capacity. In the forward version, sequences of digits of increasing length have to be reproduced in the order in which they are presented, whereas in the backward version items must be reproduced in the reversed order. Here, we assessed whether transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) increases the memory span for digits of young and midlife adults. Imperceptibly weak electrical currents in the alpha (10 Hz), beta (20 Hz), theta (5 Hz), and gamma (40 Hz) range, as well as a sham stimulation, were delivered over the left posterior parietal cortex, a cortical region thought to sustain maintenance processes in short-term memory through oscillatory brain activity in the beta range. We showed a frequency-specific effect of beta-tACS that robustly increased the forward memory span of young, but not middle-aged, healthy individuals. The effect correlated with age: the younger the subjects, the greater the benefit arising from parietal beta stimulation. Our results provide evidence of a short-term memory capacity improvement in young adults by online frequency-specific tACS application. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

  2. Identity modulates short-term memory for facial emotion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galster, Murray; Kahana, Michael J; Wilson, Hugh R; Sekuler, Robert

    2009-12-01

    For some time, the relationship between processing of facial expression and facial identity has been in dispute. Using realistic synthetic faces, we reexamined this relationship for both perception and short-term memory. In Experiment 1, subjects tried to identify whether the emotional expression on a probe stimulus face matched the emotional expression on either of two remembered faces that they had just seen. The results showed that identity strongly influenced recognition short-term memory for emotional expression. In Experiment 2, subjects' similarity/dissimilarity judgments were transformed by multidimensional scaling (MDS) into a 2-D description of the faces' perceptual representations. Distances among stimuli in the MDS representation, which showed a strong linkage of emotional expression and facial identity, were good predictors of correct and false recognitions obtained previously in Experiment 1. The convergence of the results from Experiments 1 and 2 suggests that the overall structure and configuration of faces' perceptual representations may parallel their representation in short-term memory and that facial identity modulates the representation of facial emotion, both in perception and in memory. The stimuli from this study may be downloaded from http://cabn.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.

  3. Reinsurance by short-term reinsurers in South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernhout, C. L. R.

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The short-term reinsurance process usually involves three parties, namely the insurer, the reinsurer and the original policyholder, as the insurer cedes a part of the covered risk of the policyholder to the reinsurer. This research however addresses the perceptions of reinsurers regarding their reinsurance activities, where the reinsurer sells reinsurance to other insurance entities (viz. insurers and reinsurers, as well as buys reinsurance from other insurance entities. The crux of short-term reinsurance is therefore mutually loss sharing between the various insurance entities. The objective of this research focuses on the improvement of financial decision-making regarding the reinsurance operations of the reinsurers. To achieve this objective a literature study was undertaken to provide adequate background to compile a questionnaire for the empirical survey. The primary study embodies the perceptions of the South African short-term reinsurers regarding the following aspects: the various reasons why reinsurance occurs; the contracts / methods of reinsurance; the bases / forms of reinsurance; and the factors which determine the retention levels of a reinsurer. South Africa is classified as a developing economy, is a member of the BRICS countries and has an emerging market economy. The empirical results should therefore also be valuable to other countries which are classified similarly

  4. Short-term indicators. Intensities as a proxy for savings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boonekamp, P.G.M.; Gerdes, J. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands); Faberi, S. [Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems ISIS, Rome (Italy)

    2013-12-15

    The ODYSSEE database on energy efficiency indicators (www.odyssee-indicators.org) has been set up to enable the monitoring and evaluation of realised energy efficiency improvements and related energy savings. The database covers the 27 EU countries as well as Norway and Croatia and data are available from 1990 on. This work contributes to the growing need for quantitative monitoring and evaluation of the impacts of energy policies and measures, both at the EU and national level, e.g. due to the Energy Services Directive and the proposed Energy Efficiency Directive. Because the underlying data become available only after some time, the savings figures are not always timely available. This is especially true for the ODEX efficiency indices per sector that rely on a number of indicators. Therefore, there is a need for so-called short-term indicators that become available shortly after the year has passed for which data are needed. The short term indicators do not replace the savings indicators but function as a proxy for the savings in the most recent year. This proxy value is faster available, but will be less accurate than the saving indicators themselves. The short term indicators have to be checked regularly with the ODEX indicators in order to see whether they can function still as a proxy.

  5. Does tonality boost short-term memory in congenital amusia?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albouy, Philippe; Schulze, Katrin; Caclin, Anne; Tillmann, Barbara

    2013-11-06

    Congenital amusia is a neuro-developmental disorder of music perception and production. Recent findings have demonstrated that this deficit is linked to an impaired short-term memory for tone sequences. As it has been shown before that non-musicians' implicit knowledge of musical regularities can improve short-term memory for tone information, the present study investigated if this type of implicit knowledge could also influence amusics' short-term memory performance. Congenital amusics and their matched controls, who were non-musicians, had to indicate whether sequences of five tones, presented in pairs, were the same or different; half of the pairs respected musical regularities (tonal sequences) and the other half did not (atonal sequences). As previously reported for non-musician participants, the control participants showed better performance (as measured with d') for tonal sequences than for atonal ones. While this improvement was not observed in amusics, both control and amusic participants showed faster response times for tonal sequences than for atonal sequences. These findings suggest that some implicit processing of tonal structures is potentially preserved in congenital amusia. This observation is encouraging as it strengthens the perspective to exploit implicit knowledge to help reducing pitch perception and memory deficits in amusia. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Short-term memory in networks of dissociated cortical neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dranias, Mark R; Ju, Han; Rajaram, Ezhilarasan; VanDongen, Antonius M J

    2013-01-30

    Short-term memory refers to the ability to store small amounts of stimulus-specific information for a short period of time. It is supported by both fading and hidden memory processes. Fading memory relies on recurrent activity patterns in a neuronal network, whereas hidden memory is encoded using synaptic mechanisms, such as facilitation, which persist even when neurons fall silent. We have used a novel computational and optogenetic approach to investigate whether these same memory processes hypothesized to support pattern recognition and short-term memory in vivo, exist in vitro. Electrophysiological activity was recorded from primary cultures of dissociated rat cortical neurons plated on multielectrode arrays. Cultures were transfected with ChannelRhodopsin-2 and optically stimulated using random dot stimuli. The pattern of neuronal activity resulting from this stimulation was analyzed using classification algorithms that enabled the identification of stimulus-specific memories. Fading memories for different stimuli, encoded in ongoing neural activity, persisted and could be distinguished from each other for as long as 1 s after stimulation was terminated. Hidden memories were detected by altered responses of neurons to additional stimulation, and this effect persisted longer than 1 s. Interestingly, network bursts seem to eliminate hidden memories. These results are similar to those that have been reported from similar experiments in vivo and demonstrate that mechanisms of information processing and short-term memory can be studied using cultured neuronal networks, thereby setting the stage for therapeutic applications using this platform.

  7. Short-term energy outlook: Quarterly projections, fourth quarter 1997

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-10-14

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for printed publication in January, April, July, and October in the Short-Term Energy Outlook. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates on or about the 6th of each interim month, are available on the internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the fourth quarter of 1997 through the fourth quarter of 1998. Values for the fourth quarter of 1997, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in EIA`s Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations that use the latest exogenous information available (for example, electricity sales and generation are simulated by using actual weather data). The historical energy data, compiled in the fourth quarter 1997 version of the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) database, are mostly EIA data regularly published in the Monthly Energy Review, Petroleum Supply Monthly, and other EIA publications. Minor discrepancies between the data in these publications and the historical data in this Outlook are due to independent rounding. The STIFS model is driven principally by three sets of assumptions or inputs: estimates of key macroeconomic variables, world oil price assumptions, and assumptions about the severity of weather. 19 tabs.

  8. Analysis of the spontaneous variations in wind power and necessary continuous regulation of hydro-electric and thermal power, related to a future Swedish power system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holm, J O; Lindstrom, P O

    1982-09-01

    Wind power is unlike conventional electric power generation, since the output fluctuates uncontrollably. These fluctuations must be balanced by controlled generation from other power sources. This will create new and interesting demands on the reserves in the power system. The short-term fluctuations have a low simultaneity factor and must be balanced by an automatic frequency control reserve. In Sweden, this consists of automatically controlled hydro-electric power. The report contains calculations of the amount by which the demand on reserves will increase when wind power is introduced.

  9. Neutron fluctuations in accelerator driven and power reactors via backward master equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhifeng Kuang

    2000-05-01

    The transport of neutrons in a reactor is a random process, and thus the number of neutrons in a reactor is a random variable. Fluctuations in the number of neutrons in a reactor can be divided into two categories, namely zero noise and power reactor noise. As the name indicates, they dominate (i.e. are observable) at different power levels. The reasons for their occurrences and utilization are also different. In addition, they are described via different mathematical tools, namely master equations and the Langevin equation, respectively. Zero noise carries information about some nuclear properties such as reactor reactivity. Hence methods such as Feynman- and Rossi-alpha methods have been established to determine the subcritical reactivity of a subcritical system. Such methods received a renewed interest recently with the advent of the so-called accelerator driven systems (ADS). Such systems, intended to be used either for energy production or transuranium transmutation, will use a subcritical core with a strong spallation source. A spallation source has statistical properties that are different from those of the traditionally used radioactive sources which were also assumed in the derivation of the Feynman- and Rossi-alpha formulae. Therefore it is necessary to re-derive the Feynman- and Rossi-alpha formulae. Such formulae for ADS have been derived recently but in simpler neutronic models. One subject of this thesis is the extension of such formulae to a more general case in which six groups of delayed neutron precursors are taken into account, and the full joint statistics of the prompt and all delayed groups is included. The involved complexity problems are solved with a combination of effective analytical techniques and symbolic algebra codes. Power reactor noise carries information about parametric perturbation of the system. Langevin technique has been used to extract such information. In such a treatment, zero noise has been neglected. This is a pragmatic

  10. Ordered short-term memory differs in signers and speakers: Implications for models of short-term memory

    OpenAIRE

    Bavelier, Daphne; Newport, Elissa L.; Hall, Matt; Supalla, Ted; Boutla, Mrim

    2008-01-01

    Capacity limits in linguistic short-term memory (STM) are typically measured with forward span tasks in which participants are asked to recall lists of words in the order presented. Using such tasks, native signers of American Sign Language (ASL) exhibit smaller spans than native speakers (Boutla, Supalla, Newport, & Bavelier, 2004). Here, we test the hypothesis that this population difference reflects differences in the way speakers and signers maintain temporal order information in short-te...

  11. A robust control strategy for mitigating renewable energy fluctuations in a real hybrid power system combined with SMES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magdy, G.; Shabib, G.; Elbaset, Adel A.; Qudaih, Yaser; Mitani, Yasunori

    2018-05-01

    Utilizing Renewable Energy Sources (RESs) is attracting great attention as a solution to future energy shortages. However, the irregular nature of RESs and random load deviations cause a large frequency and voltage fluctuations. Therefore, in order to benefit from a maximum capacity of the RESs, a robust mitigation strategy of power fluctuations from RESs must be applied. Hence, this paper proposes a design of Load Frequency Control (LFC) coordinated with Superconducting Magnetic Energy Storage (SMES) technology (i.e., an auxiliary LFC), using an optimal PID controller-based Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) in the Egyptian Power System (EPS) considering high penetration of Photovoltaics (PV) power generation. Thus, from the perspective of LFC, the robust control strategy is proposed to maintain the nominal system frequency and mitigating the power fluctuations from RESs against all disturbances sources for the EPS with the multi-source environment. The EPS is decomposed into three dynamics subsystems, which are non-reheat, reheat and hydro power plants taking into consideration the system nonlinearity. The results by nonlinear simulation Matlab/Simulink for the EPS combined with SMES system considering PV solar power approves that, the proposed control strategy achieves a robust stability by reducing transient time, minimizing the frequency deviations, maintaining the system frequency, preventing conventional generators from exceeding their power ratings during load disturbances, and mitigating the power fluctuations from the RESs.

  12. THE POWER SPECTRUM OF THE MILKY WAY: VELOCITY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE GALACTIC DISK

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bovy, Jo [Institute for Advanced Study, Einstein Drive, Princeton, NJ 08540 (United States); Bird, Jonathan C. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Vanderbilt University, 6301 Stevenson Center, Nashville, TN 37235 (United States); Pérez, Ana E. García; Majewski, Steven R. [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904 (United States); Nidever, David L. [Department of Astronomy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104 (United States); Zasowski, Gail, E-mail: bovy@ias.edu [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States)

    2015-02-20

    We investigate the kinematics of stars in the mid-plane of the Milky Way (MW) on scales between 25 pc and 10 kpc with data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), the Radial Velocity Experiment (RAVE), and the Geneva-Copenhagen survey (GCS). Using red-clump (RC) stars in APOGEE, we determine the large-scale line-of-sight velocity field out to 5 kpc from the Sun in (0.75 kpc){sup 2} bins. The solar motion V{sub ☉} {sub –} {sub c} with respect to the circular velocity V{sub c} is the largest contribution to the power on large scales after subtracting an axisymmetric rotation field; we determine the solar motion by minimizing the large-scale power to be V{sub ☉} {sub –} {sub c} = 24 ± 1 (ran.) ± 2 (syst. [V{sub c} ]) ± 5 (syst.[large-scale]) km s{sup –1}, where the systematic uncertainty is due to (1) a conservative 20 km s{sup –1} uncertainty in V{sub c} and (2) the estimated power on unobserved larger scales. Combining the APOGEE peculiar-velocity field with RC stars in RAVE out to 2 kpc from the Sun and with local GCS stars, we determine the power spectrum of residual velocity fluctuations in the MW's disk on scales between 0.2 kpc{sup –1} ≤ k ≤ 40 kpc{sup –1}. Most of the power is contained in a broad peak between 0.2 kpc{sup –1} < k < 0.9 kpc{sup –1}. We investigate the expected power spectrum for various non-axisymmetric perturbations and demonstrate that the central bar with commonly used parameters but of relatively high mass can explain the bulk of velocity fluctuations in the plane of the Galactic disk near the Sun. Streaming motions ≈10 km s{sup –1} on ≳ 3 kpc scales in the MW are in good agreement with observations of external galaxies and directly explain why local determinations of the solar motion are inconsistent with global measurements.

  13. Power spectral density of velocity fluctuations estimated from phase Doppler data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedelsky, Jan; Lizal, Frantisek; Jicha, Miroslav

    2012-04-01

    Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA) and its modifications such as PhaseDoppler Particle Anemometry (P/DPA) is point-wise method for optical nonintrusive measurement of particle velocity with high data rate. Conversion of the LDA velocity data from temporal to frequency domain - calculation of power spectral density (PSD) of velocity fluctuations, is a non trivial task due to nonequidistant data sampling in time. We briefly discuss possibilities for the PSD estimation and specify limitations caused by seeding density and other factors of the flow and LDA setup. Arbitrary results of LDA measurements are compared with corresponding Hot Wire Anemometry (HWA) data in the frequency domain. Slot correlation (SC) method implemented in software program Kern by Nobach (2006) is used for the PSD estimation. Influence of several input parameters on resulting PSDs is described. Optimum setup of the software for our data of particle-laden air flow in realistic human airway model is documented. Typical character of the flow is described using PSD plots of velocity fluctuations with comments on specific properties of the flow. Some recommendations for improvements of future experiments to acquire better PSD results are given.

  14. Power spectral density of velocity fluctuations estimated from phase Doppler data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jicha Miroslav

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Laser Doppler Anemometry (LDA and its modifications such as PhaseDoppler Particle Anemometry (P/DPA is point-wise method for optical nonintrusive measurement of particle velocity with high data rate. Conversion of the LDA velocity data from temporal to frequency domain – calculation of power spectral density (PSD of velocity fluctuations, is a non trivial task due to nonequidistant data sampling in time. We briefly discuss possibilities for the PSD estimation and specify limitations caused by seeding density and other factors of the flow and LDA setup. Arbitrary results of LDA measurements are compared with corresponding Hot Wire Anemometry (HWA data in the frequency domain. Slot correlation (SC method implemented in software program Kern by Nobach (2006 is used for the PSD estimation. Influence of several input parameters on resulting PSDs is described. Optimum setup of the software for our data of particle-laden air flow in realistic human airway model is documented. Typical character of the flow is described using PSD plots of velocity fluctuations with comments on specific properties of the flow. Some recommendations for improvements of future experiments to acquire better PSD results are given.

  15. Gut microbiome response to short-term dietary interventions in reactive hypoglycemia subjects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quercia, Sara; Turroni, Silvia; Fiori, Jessica; Soverini, Matteo; Rampelli, Simone; Biagi, Elena; Castagnetti, Andrea; Consolandi, Clarissa; Severgnini, Marco; Pianesi, Mario; Fallucca, Francesco; Pozzilli, Paolo; Brigidi, Patrizia; Candela, Marco

    2017-11-01

    Reactive hypoglycemia is a metabolic disorder that provokes severe hypoglycemic episodes after meals. Over recent years, the gut microbiota has been recognized as potential target for the control of metabolic diseases, and the possibility to correct gut microbiota dysbioses through diet, favouring the recovery of metabolic homeostasis, has been considered. We investigate the impact of 2 short-term (3-day) nutritional interventions, based on the macrobiotic Ma-Pi 2 diet and a control Mediterranean diet, on the structure and functionality of the gut microbiota in 12 patients affected by reactive hypoglycemia. The gut microbiota composition was characterized by next-generation sequencing of the V3 to V4 region of the 16S rRNA gene, and the ecosystem functionality was addressed by measuring the faecal concentration of short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs). In order to measure the short-term physiological gut microbiota fluctuation, the microbiomes of 7 healthy people were characterized before and after 3 days of constant diet. While no convergence of the gut microbiota compositional profiles was observed, a significant increase in SCFA faecal levels was induced only in the Ma-Pi 2 diet group, suggesting the potential of this diet to support a short-term functional convergence of the gut microbiota, regardless of the individual compositional layout. The Ma-Pi 2 diet, with its high fibre load, was effective in increasing the production of SCFAs by the gut microbiota. Because these metabolites are known for their ability to counterbalance the metabolic deregulation in persons with glucose impairment disorders, their increased bioavailability could be of some relevance in reactive hypoglycemia. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Predicting short-term weight loss using four leading health behavior change theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barata José T

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study was conceived to analyze how exercise and weight management psychosocial variables, derived from several health behavior change theories, predict weight change in a short-term intervention. The theories under analysis were the Social Cognitive Theory, the Transtheoretical Model, the Theory of Planned Behavior, and Self-Determination Theory. Methods Subjects were 142 overweight and obese women (BMI = 30.2 ± 3.7 kg/m2; age = 38.3 ± 5.8y, participating in a 16-week University-based weight control program. Body weight and a comprehensive psychometric battery were assessed at baseline and at program's end. Results Weight decreased significantly (-3.6 ± 3.4%, p Conclusion The present models were able to predict 20–30% of variance in short-term weight loss and changes in weight management self-efficacy accounted for a large share of the predictive power. As expected from previous studies, exercise variables were only moderately associated with short-term outcomes; they are expected to play a larger explanatory role in longer-term results.

  17. The economic benefit of short-term forecasting for wind energy in the UK electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barthelmie, R.J.; Murray, F.; Pryor, S.C.

    2008-01-01

    In the UK market, the total price of renewable electricity is made up of the Renewables Obligation Certificate and the price achieved for the electricity. Accurate forecasting improves the price if electricity is traded via the power exchange. In order to understand the size of wind farm for which short-term forecasting becomes economically viable, we develop a model for wind energy. Simulations were carried out for 2003 electricity prices for different forecast accuracies and strategies. The results indicate that it is possible to increase the price obtained by around pound 5/MWh which is about 14% of the electricity price in 2003 and about 6% of the total price. We show that the economic benefit of using short-term forecasting is also dependant on the accuracy and cost of purchasing the forecast. As the amount of wind energy requiring integration into the grid increases, short-term forecasting becomes more important to both wind farm owners and the transmission/distribution operators. (author)

  18. On some verbal short-term and working memory properties in patients suffering from clinical depression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lalović Dejan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Clinical depression with verbal short-term memory relation research does not yield unequivocal results. While short-term memory (STM deficits in depressed patients are consistently displayed in working memory (WM and executive attention tasks, for STM passive memorizing tasks this holds less correct. Objective. Primary goal was to collect initial data on depressed patients treated in Serbian institutions WM/ STM. In addition, we estimated the power of WAIS IV WM subtests to discriminate depressed patients from normal subjects. Method. Depressed patients' sample was contrasted with the parallel group in WAIS' IV Arithmetic, Digit Span, and Letter- Number Sequencing; free word recall task, semantic fluency task, without and with category switching. Results. All the WM measures, with the exception of Digit Span Backward score, discriminate depressed from no depressed subjects. On the other hand, STM tasks, with the exception of short-term word free recall, fail to do the same. We suggest explanation for both the exceptions in terms of WM efficiency. WAIS IV Arithmetic, Digit Span Sequencing and Letter-Number Sequencing can be used to discriminate depressed from control subjects. Performance in STM/WM tasks is in moderate to strong negative correlation with depression severity as assessed with the Hamilton scale. Conclusion. STM deficits in the depressed are likely to be observed in tasks requiring executive attention and WM efficiency rather than in standard STM span tasks. The deficits are inertly related to depression severity.

  19. Fast simulation approaches for power fluctuation model of wind farm based on frequency domain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lin, Jin; Gao, Wen-zhong; Sun, Yuan-zhang

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses one model developed by Riso, DTU, which is capable of simulating the power fluctuation of large wind farms in frequency domain. In the original design, the “frequency-time” transformations are time-consuming and might limit the computation speed for a wind farm of large size....... Under this background, this paper proposes four efficient approaches to accelerate the simulation speed. Two of them are based on physical model simplifications, and the other two improve the numerical computation. The case study demonstrates the efficiency of these approaches. The acceleration ratio...... is more than 300 times if all these approaches are adopted, in any low, medium and high wind speed test scenarios....

  20. Short-term memory in zebrafish (Danio rerio).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Jason; Fernandes, Yohaan; Gerlai, Robert

    2014-08-15

    Learning and memory represent perhaps the most complex behavioral phenomena. Although their underlying mechanisms have been extensively analyzed, only a fraction of the potential molecular components have been identified. The zebrafish has been proposed as a screening tool with which mechanisms of complex brain functions may be systematically uncovered. However, as a relative newcomer in behavioral neuroscience, the zebrafish has not been well characterized for its cognitive and mnemonic features, thus learning and/or memory screens with adults have not been feasible. Here we study short-term memory of adult zebrafish. We show animated images of conspecifics (the stimulus) to the experimental subject during 1 min intervals on ten occasions separated by different (2, 4, 8 or 16 min long) inter-stimulus intervals (ISI), a between subject experimental design. We quantify the distance of the subject from the image presentation screen during each stimulus presentation interval, during each of the 1-min post-stimulus intervals immediately following the stimulus presentations and during each of the 1-min intervals furthest away from the last stimulus presentation interval and just before the next interval (pre-stimulus interval), respectively. Our results demonstrate significant retention of short-term memory even in the longest ISI group but suggest no acquisition of reference memory. Because in the employed paradigm both stimulus presentation and behavioral response quantification is computer automated, we argue that high-throughput screening for drugs or mutations that alter short-term memory performance of adult zebrafish is now becoming feasible. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Short-term memory binding deficits in Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parra, Mario A; Abrahams, Sharon; Fabi, Katia; Logie, Robert; Luzzi, Simona; Della Sala, Sergio

    2009-04-01

    Alzheimer's disease impairs long term memories for related events (e.g. faces with names) more than for single events (e.g. list of faces or names). Whether or not this associative or 'binding' deficit is also found in short-term memory has not yet been explored. In two experiments we investigated binding deficits in verbal short-term memory in Alzheimer's disease. Experiment 1: 23 patients with Alzheimer's disease and 23 age and education matched healthy elderly were recruited. Participants studied visual arrays of objects (six for healthy elderly and four for Alzheimer's disease patients), colours (six for healthy elderly and four for Alzheimer's disease patients), unbound objects and colours (three for healthy elderly and two for Alzheimer's disease patients in each of the two categories), or objects bound with colours (three for healthy elderly and two for Alzheimer's disease patients). They were then asked to recall the items verbally. The memory of patients with Alzheimer's disease for objects bound with colours was significantly worse than for single or unbound features whereas healthy elderly's memory for bound and unbound features did not differ. Experiment 2: 21 Alzheimer's disease patients and 20 matched healthy elderly were recruited. Memory load was increased for the healthy elderly group to eight items in the conditions assessing memory for single or unbound features and to four items in the condition assessing memory for the binding of these features. For Alzheimer's disease patients the task remained the same. This manipulation permitted the performance to be equated across groups in the conditions assessing memory for single or unbound features. The impairment in Alzheimer's disease patients in recalling bound objects reported in Experiment 1 was replicated. The binding cost was greater than that observed in the healthy elderly group, who did not differ in their performance for bound and unbound features. Alzheimer's disease grossly impairs the

  2. Short-term memory load and pronunciation rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweickert, Richard; Hayt, Cathrin

    1988-01-01

    In a test of short-term memory recall, two subjects attempted to recall various lists. For unpracticed subjects, the time it took to read the list is a better predictor of immediate recall than the number of items on the list. For practiced subjects, the two predictors do about equally well. If the items that must be recalled are unfamiliar, it is advantageous to keep the items short to pronounce. On the other hand, if the same items will be encountered over and over again, it is advantageous to make them distinctive, even at the cost of adding to the number of syllables.

  3. Attentional priorities and access to short-term memory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gillebert, Celine; Dyrholm, Mads; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup

    2012-01-01

    The intraparietal sulcus (IPS) has been implicated in selective attention as well as visual short-term memory (VSTM). To contrast mechanisms of target selection, distracter filtering, and access to VSTM, we combined behavioral testing, computational modeling and functional magnetic resonance......, thereby displaying a significant interaction between the two factors. The interaction between target and distracter set size in IPS could not be accounted for by a simple explanation in terms of number of items accessing VSTM. Instead, it led us to a model where items accessing VSTM receive differential...

  4. Short-term memory, executive control, and children's route learning

    OpenAIRE

    Purser, H. R.; Farran, E. K.; Courbois, Y.; Lemahieu, A.; Mellier, D.; Sockeel, P.; Blades, M.

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate route-learning ability in 67 children aged 5 to 11years and to relate route-learning performance to the components of Baddeley's model of working memory. Children carried out tasks that included measures of verbal and visuospatial short-term memory and executive control and also measures of verbal and visuospatial long-term memory; the route-learning task was conducted using a maze in a virtual environment. In contrast to previous research, correlation...

  5. Short-Term Memory and Its Biophysical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei; Zhang, Kai; Tang, Xiao-wei

    1996-12-01

    The capacity of short-term memory has been studied using an integrate-and-fire neuronal network model. It is found that the storage of events depend on the manner of the correlation between the events, and the capacity is dominated by the value of after-depolarization potential. There is a monotonic increasing relationship between the value of after-depolarization potential and the memory numbers. The biophysics relevance of the network model is discussed and different kinds of the information processes are studied too.

  6. Overwriting and intrusion in short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bancroft, Tyler D; Jones, Jeffery A; Ensor, Tyler M; Hockley, William E; Servos, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Studies of interference in working and short-term memory suggest that irrelevant information may overwrite the contents of memory or intrude into memory. While some previous studies have reported greater interference when irrelevant information is similar to the contents of memory than when it is dissimilar, other studies have reported greater interference for dissimilar distractors than for similar distractors. In the present study, we find the latter effect in a paradigm that uses auditory tones as stimuli. We suggest that the effects of distractor similarity to memory contents are mediated by the type of information held in memory, particularly the complexity or simplicity of information.

  7. Short-term memory for spatial, sequential and duration information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manohar, Sanjay G; Pertzov, Yoni; Husain, Masud

    2017-10-01

    Space and time appear to play key roles in the way that information is organized in short-term memory (STM). Some argue that they are crucial contexts within which other stored features are embedded, allowing binding of information that belongs together within STM. Here we review recent behavioral, neurophysiological and imaging studies that have sought to investigate the nature of spatial, sequential and duration representations in STM, and how these might break down in disease. Findings from these studies point to an important role of the hippocampus and other medial temporal lobe structures in aspects of STM, challenging conventional accounts of involvement of these regions in only long-term memory.

  8. Music Learning with Long Short Term Memory Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Colombo, Florian François

    2015-01-01

    Humans are able to learn and compose complex, yet beautiful, pieces of music as seen in e.g. the highly complicated works of J.S. Bach. However, how our brain is able to store and produce these very long temporal sequences is still an open question. Long short-term memory (LSTM) artificial neural networks have been shown to be efficient in sequence learning tasks thanks to their inherent ability to bridge long time lags between input events and their target signals. Here, I investigate the po...

  9. Short-term energy outlook, quarterly projections, second quarter 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-04-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections. The details of these projections, as well as monthly updates, are available on the Internet at: www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html. The paper discusses outlook assumptions; US energy prices; world oil supply and the oil production cutback agreement of March 1998; international oil demand and supply; world oil stocks, capacity, and net trade; US oil demand and supply; US natural gas demand and supply; US coal demand and supply; US electricity demand and supply; US renewable energy demand; and US energy demand and supply sensitivities. 29 figs., 19 tabs.

  10. Short-term hydropower production planning by stochastic programming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fleten, Stein-Erik; Kristoffersen, Trine

    2008-01-01

    -term production planning a matter of spatial distribution among the reservoirs of the plant. Day-ahead market prices and reservoir inflows are, however, uncertain beyond the current operation day and water must be allocated among the reservoirs in order to strike a balance between current profits and expected......Within the framework of multi-stage mixed-integer linear stochastic programming we develop a short-term production plan for a price-taking hydropower plant operating under uncertainty. Current production must comply with the day-ahead commitments of the previous day which makes short...

  11. MHz gravitational waves from short-term anisotropic inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ito, Asuka; Soda, Jiro

    2016-01-01

    We reveal the universality of short-term anisotropic inflation. As a demonstration, we study inflation with an exponential type gauge kinetic function which is ubiquitous in models obtained by dimensional reduction from higher dimensional fundamental theory. It turns out that an anisotropic inflation universally takes place in the later stage of conventional inflation. Remarkably, we find that primordial gravitational waves with a peak amplitude around 10 −26 ∼10 −27 are copiously produced in high-frequency bands 10 MHz∼100 MHz. If we could detect such gravitational waves in future, we would be able to probe higher dimensional fundamental theory.

  12. Short-term bioconcentration studies of Np in freshwater biota

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poston, T.M.; Klopfer, D.C.; Simmons, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    Short-term laboratory exposures were conducted to determine the potential accumulation of Np in aquatic organisms. Concentration factors were highest in green algae. Daphnia magna, a filter-feeding crustacean, accumulated Np at levels one order of magnitude greater than the amphipod Gammarus sp., an omnivorous substrate feeder. Accumulation of Np in juvenile rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) was highest in carcass (generally greater than 78% of the total body burden) and lowest in fillets. Recommended concentration factors for Np, based on fresh weight, were 300 for green algae, 100 for filter-feeding invertebrates, for nonfilter-feeding invertebrates, 10 for whole fish, and one for fish flesh

  13. Short-Term Treatment of Children With Encopresis

    Science.gov (United States)

    FIREMAN, GARY; KOPLEWICZ, HAROLD S.

    1992-01-01

    To examine the effectiveness of a short-term behavioral treatment of encopresis, 52 encopretic children were evaluated and treated according to a standardized protocol. The treatment was highly effective, with a significant decrease in soiling during the first month (P < 0.01). Of the children who began treatment, 84.6% successfully reached the criterion of 2 consecutive weeks with no soiling accidents in a mean time of 28 days, and 78.8% successfully completed an additional 7-week phaseout period. The evaluations provided rich descriptive information regarding the characteristics of encopretic children. In agreement with the literature, no specific pattern of behavioral pathology was apparent. PMID:22700057

  14. Short-term load forecasting with increment regression tree

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Jingfei; Stenzel, Juergen [Darmstadt University of Techonology, Darmstadt 64283 (Germany)

    2006-06-15

    This paper presents a new regression tree method for short-term load forecasting. Both increment and non-increment tree are built according to the historical data to provide the data space partition and input variable selection. Support vector machine is employed to the samples of regression tree nodes for further fine regression. Results of different tree nodes are integrated through weighted average method to obtain the comprehensive forecasting result. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through its application to an actual system. (author)

  15. Effect of active warm-up duration on morning short-term maximal performance during Ramadan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baklouti, Hana; Chtourou, Hamdi; Aloui, Asma; Chaouachi, Anis; Souissi, Nizar

    2015-01-01

    To examine the effect of active warm-up duration on short-term maximal performance assessed during Ramadan in the morning. Twelve healthy active men performed four Wingate tests for measurement of peak power and mean power before and during Ramadan at 09:00 a.m. The tests were performed on separate days, after either a 5-min or a 15-min warm-up. The warm-up consisted in pedaling at 50% of the power output obtained at the last stage of a submaximal multistage cycling test. Oral temperature was measured at rest and after warming-up. Furthermore, ratings of perceived exertion were obtained immediately after the Wingate test. Oral temperature was higher after the 15-min warm-up than the 5-min warm-up throughout the study. Moreover, peak power and mean power were higher after the 15-min warm-up than the 5-min warm-up before Ramadan. However, during Ramadan, there was no significant difference between the two warm-up durations. In addition, ratings of perceived exertion were higher after the 15-min warm-up than the 5-min warm-up only during Ramadan. There is no need to prolong the warm-up period before short-term maximal exercise performed during Ramadan in the morning.

  16. Short-term stability test for thorium soil candidate a reference material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clain, Almir F.; Fonseca, Adelaide M.G.; Dantas, Vanessa V.D.B.; Braganca, Maura J.C.; Souza, Poliana S., E-mail: almir@ird.gov.br, E-mail: adelaide@ird.gov.br, E-mail: vanessa@ird.gov.br, E-mail: maura@ird.gov.br, E-mail: poliana@bolsista.ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioprotecao e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2015-07-01

    This work describes a methodology to determine the soil short-term stability after the steps of production in laboratory. The short-term stability of the soil is an essential property to be determined in order to producing a reference material. The soil is a candidate of reference material for chemical analysis of thorium with metrological traceability to be used in environmental analysis, equipment calibration, validation methods, and quality control. A material is considered stable in a certain temperature if the property of interest does not change with time, considering the analytical random fluctuations. Due to this, the angular coefficient from the graphic of Th concentration versus elapsed time must be near to zero. The analytical determinations of thorium concentration were performed by Instrumental Neutron activation Analysis. The slopes and their uncertainties were obtained from the regression lines at temperatures of 20 deg C and 60 deg C, with control temperature of -20 deg C. From the obtained data a t-test was applied. In both temperatures the calculated t-value was lower than the critical value, so we can conclude with 95% confidence level that no significant changes happened during the period studied concerning thorium concentration in soil at temperatures of 20 deg C and 60 deg C, showing stability at these temperatures. (author)

  17. Short-term stability test for thorium soil candidate a reference material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clain, Almir F.; Fonseca, Adelaide M.G.; Dantas, Vanessa V.D.B.; Braganca, Maura J.C.; Souza, Poliana S.

    2015-01-01

    This work describes a methodology to determine the soil short-term stability after the steps of production in laboratory. The short-term stability of the soil is an essential property to be determined in order to producing a reference material. The soil is a candidate of reference material for chemical analysis of thorium with metrological traceability to be used in environmental analysis, equipment calibration, validation methods, and quality control. A material is considered stable in a certain temperature if the property of interest does not change with time, considering the analytical random fluctuations. Due to this, the angular coefficient from the graphic of Th concentration versus elapsed time must be near to zero. The analytical determinations of thorium concentration were performed by Instrumental Neutron activation Analysis. The slopes and their uncertainties were obtained from the regression lines at temperatures of 20 deg C and 60 deg C, with control temperature of -20 deg C. From the obtained data a t-test was applied. In both temperatures the calculated t-value was lower than the critical value, so we can conclude with 95% confidence level that no significant changes happened during the period studied concerning thorium concentration in soil at temperatures of 20 deg C and 60 deg C, showing stability at these temperatures. (author)

  18. Tornado outbreak variability follows Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling and increases dramatically with severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tippett, Michael K.; Cohen, Joel E.

    2016-01-01

    Tornadoes cause loss of life and damage to property each year in the United States and around the world. The largest impacts come from ‘outbreaks' consisting of multiple tornadoes closely spaced in time. Here we find an upward trend in the annual mean number of tornadoes per US tornado outbreak for the period 1954–2014. Moreover, the variance of this quantity is increasing more than four times as fast as the mean. The mean and variance of the number of tornadoes per outbreak vary according to Taylor's power law of fluctuation scaling (TL), with parameters that are consistent with multiplicative growth. Tornado-related atmospheric proxies show similar power-law scaling and multiplicative growth. Path-length-integrated tornado outbreak intensity also follows TL, but with parameters consistent with sampling variability. The observed TL power-law scaling of outbreak severity means that extreme outbreaks are more frequent than would be expected if mean and variance were independent or linearly related. PMID:26923210

  19. Spacecraft radio scattering observations of the power spectrum of electron density fluctuations in the solar wind

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Woo, R.; Armstrong, J.W.

    1979-01-01

    Solar wind electron density power spectra in the solar equatorial region are inferred from observations of phase scintillations and spectral broadening made with the Viking, Helios, and Pioneer spacecraft. The heliocentric distance range covered is 2--215 R/sub S/, and for some observations close to the sun the spectra extend to fluctuation frequencies as high as 100 Hz. For heliocentric distances > or approx. =20 R/sub S/ the equivalent spacecraft-measured one-dimensional density spectrym V/sub n/e is well modeled by a single power law (f/sup -alpha/) in the frequency range 10 -4 -5 x 10 -2 Hz. The mean spectral index α is 1.65, very close to the Kolmogorov value of 5/3. Under the assumption of constant solar wind speed, V/sub n/e varies as R/sup -3.45/, where R is heliocentric distance. Within 20 R/sub S/, V/sub n/e can still be modeled by a single power law over the frequency range 10 -3 -10 1 Hz, but the spectral index becomes smaller, αapprox.1.1. The flattening of the density spectrum with 20 R/sub S/ is presumably associated with energy deposition in the near-sun region and acceleration of the solar wind

  20. The Role of Private Information in Short-term Fluctuations of Won/Dollar Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haesik Park

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have examined the short-run movement of the won/dollar exchange rate using information obtained from the inter-bank market in Korea. First, we constructed the hourly measure of excess demand for dollar and used it as a proxy for the trading pattern of market participants. To construct this time series, we relied on the bid and ask won/dollar exchange rates collected on the two-minute interval. We then estimated the structural VAR model consisting of the actually observed won/dollar exchange rate and the proxied trading pattern of market participants to see if private information, as opposed to public information, is relevant for explaining the hourly movement of the won/dollar exchange rate. Private information is found to account for more 30% of hourly variations of the won/dollar exchange rate. Next, we constructed the trading pattern of market participants on a daily basis using the same data set employed to build the hourly measure. We then examined whether private information is useful for predicting the daily won/dollar exchange rate movement. We found that the forecast model using both private and public information reduces out-of-sample forecast errors of an alternative model relying only on public information by 20~25%. Also, the out-of-sample forecast of the model using both private and public information is found to be more accurate than the random walk model.

  1. Short-term climatic fluctuations and the interpretation of recent observations in terms of greenhouse effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andre, J.C.; Royer, J.F.

    1999-01-01

    Simulations of future climate made with coupled general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean predict that the increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases released in the atmosphere by man's activities will have a large influence on the climate of the next century. The identification of the climatic impact produced by the rapid increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the last decades is made difficult by strong inter-annual climate variability, and requires the application of statistical techniques combining several climatic indicators (method of climatic 'fingerprints') so as to improve the detection of a possible anthropogenic perturbation. In this paper we review the evolution through the last decades of several climate indicators showing global warming, its geographical distribution, sea level, the hydrological cycle and the response of vegetation, and we compare them to the model results predicted in climate scenarios. The coherence between model results and observed climatic trends shows that the additional greenhouse effect is starting to become detectable in recent climatic data. (authors)

  2. The Global Precipitation Patterns Associated with Short-Term Extratropical Climate Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huffman, George J.; Adler, Robert F.; Bolvin, David T.

    1999-01-01

    Two globally-complete, observation-only precipitation datasets have recently been developed for the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Both depend heavily on a variety of satellite input, as well as gauge data over land. The first, Version 2x79, provides monthly estimates on a 2.5 deg. x 2.5 deg. lat/long grid for the period 1979 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). The second, the One-Degree Daily (1DD), provides daily estimates on a 1 deg. x l deg. grid for the period 1997 through late 1999 (by the time of the conference). Both are in beta test preparatory to release as official GPCP products. These datasets provide a unique perspective on the hydrological effects of the various atmospheric flow anomalies that have been identified by meteorologists. In this paper we discuss the regional precipitation effects that result from persistent extratropical flow anomalies. We will focus on the Pacific-North America (PNA) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) patterns. Each characteristically becomes established on synoptic time scales, but then persists for periods that can exceed a month. The onset phase of each appears to have systematic mobile features, while the mature phase tend to be more stationary. Accordingly, composites of monthly data for outstanding positive and negative events (separately) contained in the 20-year record reveal the climatological structure of the precipitation during the mature phase. The climatological anomalies of the positive, negative, and (positive-negative) composites show the expected storm-track-related shifts in precipitation, and provide the advantage of putting the known precipitation effects over land in the context of the total pattern over land and ocean. As well, this global perspective points out some unexpected areas of correlation. Day-by-day composites of daily data anchored to the onset date demonstrate the systematic features during the onset. Although the 1DD has a fairly short record, some preliminary results are shown and compared to previous work with numerical weather prediction models.

  3. Short-Term Monocular Deprivation Enhances Physiological Pupillary Oscillations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Binda

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Short-term monocular deprivation alters visual perception in adult humans, increasing the dominance of the deprived eye, for example, as measured with binocular rivalry. This form of plasticity may depend upon the inhibition/excitation balance in the visual cortex. Recent work suggests that cortical excitability is reliably tracked by dilations and constrictions of the pupils of the eyes. Here, we ask whether monocular deprivation produces a systematic change of pupil behavior, as measured at rest, that is independent of the change of visual perception. During periods of minimal sensory stimulation (in the dark and task requirements (minimizing body and gaze movements, slow pupil oscillations, “hippus,” spontaneously appear. We find that hippus amplitude increases after monocular deprivation, with larger hippus changes in participants showing larger ocular dominance changes (measured by binocular rivalry. This tight correlation suggests that a single latent variable explains both the change of ocular dominance and hippus. We speculate that the neurotransmitter norepinephrine may be implicated in this phenomenon, given its important role in both plasticity and pupil control. On the practical side, our results indicate that measuring the pupil hippus (a simple and short procedure provides a sensitive index of the change of ocular dominance induced by short-term monocular deprivation, hence a proxy for plasticity.

  4. Short term efficacy of interventional therapy for hilar biliary obstruction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhai Renyou; Dai Dingke; Wang Jianfeng; Yu Ping; Wei Baojie

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To analyze the method and short term efficacy of interventional therapy for hilar biliary obstructive jaundice. Methods: 100 consecutive patients with perihilar biliary obstruction admitted before May 2004 were treated with percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) or placement of metallic stents. Among them, 39 patients were found with bile duct cancer, 6 with adenocarcinoma of gallbladder, 22 with metastatic carcinoma, 15 with primary liver carcinoma and 18 with bile duct strait after liver transplantation. Serum total bilirubin before operation and 3-7 days, 8-14 days after procedure were analysed by t test. Results: 79 patients with PTBD (including simple external drainage and combined internal and external drainage), and 21 patients with stents placement (including 31 stents of 4 different kinds) were all carried out successfully. There were significant differences in serum total bilirubin before and 3-7 days, 8-14 days after the procedure, P<0.05 vs P<0.01. Conclusion: Interventional therapy is simple, safe, and effective for hilar biliary obstruction, the latter showed more significance than the former with short term satisfaction. (authors)

  5. Short-Term Lifestyle Strategies for Sustaining Cognitive Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, John N.; Steel, Knight; Strout, Kelley A.; Fries, Brant E.; Moore, Alice; Garms-Homolová, Vjenka

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive decline impacts older adults, particularly their independence. The goal of this project was to increase understanding of how short-term, everyday lifestyle options, including physical activity, help an older adult sustain cognitive independence. Using a secondary analysis of lifestyle choices, we drew on a dataset of 4,620 community-dwelling elders in the US, assessed at baseline and one year later using 2 valid and reliable tools, the interRAI Community Health Assessment and the interRAI Wellness tool. Decline or no decline on the Cognitive Performance Scale was the dependent variable. We examined sustaining one's status on this measure over a one-year period in relation to key dimensions of wellness through intellectual, physical, emotional, social, and spiritual variables. Engaging in physical activity, formal exercise, and specific recreational activities had a favorable effect on short-term cognitive decline. Involvement with computers, crossword puzzles, handicrafts, and formal education courses also were protective factors. The physical and intellectual domains of wellness are prominent aspects in protection from cognitive decline. Inherent in these two domains are mutable factors suitable for targeted efforts to promote older adult health and well-being. PMID:27891520

  6. Short term exposure to cooking fumes and pulmonary function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qvenild Torgunn

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Exposure to cooking fumes may have different deleterious effects on the respiratory system. The aim of this study was to look at possible effects from inhalation of cooking fumes on pulmonary function. Methods Two groups of 12 healthy volunteers (A and B stayed in a model kitchen for two and four hours respectively, and were monitored with spirometry four times during twenty four hours, on one occasion without any exposure, and on another with exposure to controlled levels of cooking fumes. Results The change in spirometric values during the day with exposure to cooking fumes, were not statistically significantly different from the changes during the day without exposure, with the exception of forced expiratory time (FET. The change in FET from entering the kitchen until six hours later, was significantly prolonged between the exposed and the unexposed day with a 15.7% increase on the exposed day, compared to a 3.2% decrease during the unexposed day (p-value = 0.03. The same tendency could be seen for FET measurements done immediately after the exposure and on the next morning, but this was not statistically significant. Conclusion In our experimental setting, there seems to be minor short term spirometric effects, mainly affecting FET, from short term exposure to cooking fumes.

  7. Short-term memory for emotional faces in dysphoria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noreen, Saima; Ridout, Nathan

    2010-07-01

    The study aimed to determine if the memory bias for negative faces previously demonstrated in depression and dysphoria generalises from long- to short-term memory. A total of 29 dysphoric (DP) and 22 non-dysphoric (ND) participants were presented with a series of faces and asked to identify the emotion portrayed (happiness, sadness, anger, or neutral affect). Following a delay, four faces were presented (the original plus three distractors) and participants were asked to identify the target face. Half of the trials assessed memory for facial emotion, and the remaining trials examined memory for facial identity. At encoding, no group differences were apparent. At memory testing, relative to ND participants, DP participants exhibited impaired memory for all types of facial emotion and for facial identity when the faces featured happiness, anger, or neutral affect, but not sadness. DP participants exhibited impaired identity memory for happy faces relative to angry, sad, and neutral, whereas ND participants exhibited enhanced facial identity memory when faces were angry. In general, memory for faces was not related to performance at encoding. However, in DP participants only, memory for sad faces was related to sadness recognition at encoding. The results suggest that the negative memory bias for faces in dysphoria does not generalise from long- to short-term memory.

  8. Similarity as an organising principle in short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeCompte, D C; Watkins, M J

    1993-03-01

    The role of stimulus similarity as an organising principle in short-term memory was explored in a series of seven experiments. Each experiment involved the presentation of a short sequence of items that were drawn from two distinct physical classes and arranged such that item class changed after every second item. Following presentation, one item was re-presented as a probe for the 'target' item that had directly followed it in the sequence. Memory for the sequence was considered organised by class if probability of recall was higher when the probe and target were from the same class than when they were from different classes. Such organisation was found when one class was auditory and the other was visual (spoken vs. written words, and sounds vs. pictures). It was also found when both classes were auditory (words spoken in a male voice vs. words spoken in a female voice) and when both classes were visual (digits shown in one location vs. digits shown in another). It is concluded that short-term memory can be organised on the basis of sensory modality and on the basis of certain features within both the auditory and visual modalities.

  9. Short-Term Lifestyle Strategies for Sustaining Cognitive Status

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth P. Howard

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cognitive decline impacts older adults, particularly their independence. The goal of this project was to increase understanding of how short-term, everyday lifestyle options, including physical activity, help an older adult sustain cognitive independence. Using a secondary analysis of lifestyle choices, we drew on a dataset of 4,620 community-dwelling elders in the US, assessed at baseline and one year later using 2 valid and reliable tools, the interRAI Community Health Assessment and the interRAI Wellness tool. Decline or no decline on the Cognitive Performance Scale was the dependent variable. We examined sustaining one’s status on this measure over a one-year period in relation to key dimensions of wellness through intellectual, physical, emotional, social, and spiritual variables. Engaging in physical activity, formal exercise, and specific recreational activities had a favorable effect on short-term cognitive decline. Involvement with computers, crossword puzzles, handicrafts, and formal education courses also were protective factors. The physical and intellectual domains of wellness are prominent aspects in protection from cognitive decline. Inherent in these two domains are mutable factors suitable for targeted efforts to promote older adult health and well-being.

  10. Short-term effects of playing computer games on attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tahiroglu, Aysegul Yolga; Celik, Gonca Gul; Avci, Ayse; Seydaoglu, Gulsah; Uzel, Mehtap; Altunbas, Handan

    2010-05-01

    The main aim of the present study is to investigate the short-term cognitive effects of computer games in children with different psychiatric disorders and normal controls. One hundred one children are recruited for the study (aged between 9 and 12 years). All participants played a motor-racing game on the computer for 1 hour. The TBAG form of the Stroop task was administered to all participants twice, before playing and immediately after playing the game. Participants with improved posttest scores, compared to their pretest scores, used the computer on average 0.67 +/- 1.1 hr/day, while the average administered was measured at 1.6 +/- 1.4 hr/day and 1.3 +/- 0.9 hr/day computer use for participants with worse or unaltered scores, respectively. According to the regression model, male gender, younger ages, duration of daily computer use, and ADHD inattention type were found to be independent risk factors for worsened posttest scores. Time spent playing computer games can exert a short-term effect on attention as measured by the Stroop test.

  11. Morphological processing with deficient phonological short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavé, Gitit; Ze'ev, Hagit Bar; Lev, Anita

    2007-07-01

    This paper investigates the processing of Hebrew derivational morphology in an individual (S.E.) with deficient phonological short-term memory. In comparison to 10 age- and education-matched men, S.E. was impaired on digit span tasks and demonstrated no recency effect in word list recall. S.E. had low word retention span, but he exhibited phonological similarity and word length effects. His ability to make lexical decisions was intact. In a paired-associate test S.E. successfully learned semantically and morphologically related pairs but not phonologically related pairs, and his learning of nonwords was facilitated by the presence of Hebrew consonant roots. Semantic and morphological similarity enhanced immediate word recall. Results show that S.E. is capable of conducting morphological decomposition of Hebrew-derived words despite his phonological deficit, suggesting that transient maintenance of morphological constituents is independent of temporary storage and rehearsal of phonological codes, and that each is processed separately within short-term memory.

  12. Temporal grouping effects in musical short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorin, Simon; Mengal, Pierre; Majerus, Steve

    2018-07-01

    Recent theoretical accounts of verbal and visuo-spatial short-term memory (STM) have proposed the existence of domain-general mechanisms for the maintenance of serial order information. These accounts are based on the observation of similar behavioural effects across several modalities, such as temporal grouping effects. Across two experiments, the present study aimed at extending these findings, by exploring a STM modality that has received little interest so far, STM for musical information. Given its inherent rhythmic, temporal and serial organisation, the musical domain is of interest for investigating serial order STM processes such as temporal grouping. In Experiment 1, the data did not allow to determine the presence or the absence of temporal grouping effects. In Experiment 2, we observed that temporal grouping of tone sequences during encoding improves short-term recognition for serially presented probe tones. Furthermore, the serial position curves included micro-primacy and micro-recency effects, which are the hallmark characteristic of temporal grouping. Our results suggest that the encoding of serial order information in musical STM may be supported by temporal positional coding mechanisms similar to those reported in the verbal domain.

  13. The IEA Model of Short-term Energy Security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-07-01

    Ensuring energy security has been at the centre of the IEA mission since its inception, following the oil crises of the early 1970s. While the security of oil supplies remains important, contemporary energy security policies must address all energy sources and cover a comprehensive range of natural, economic and political risks that affect energy sources, infrastructures and services. In response to this challenge, the IEA is currently developing a Model Of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) to evaluate the energy security risks and resilience capacities of its member countries. The current version of MOSES covers short-term security of supply for primary energy sources and secondary fuels among IEA countries. It also lays the foundation for analysis of vulnerabilities of electricity and end-use energy sectors. MOSES contains a novel approach to analysing energy security, which can be used to identify energy security priorities, as a starting point for national energy security assessments and to track the evolution of a country's energy security profile. By grouping together countries with similar 'energy security profiles', MOSES depicts the energy security landscape of IEA countries. By extending the MOSES methodology to electricity security and energy services in the future, the IEA aims to develop a comprehensive policy-relevant perspective on global energy security. This Working Paper is intended for readers who wish to explore the MOSES methodology in depth; there is also a brochure which provides an overview of the analysis and results.

  14. Short term assays for risk evaluate of α irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fritsch, P.; Beauvallet, M.; Masse, R.; Lafuma, J.

    1979-01-01

    The genetic effects induced by α irradiation were examined using short term assays in Procaryotes and Eucaryotes. Irradiation was produced by 239 Pu dissolved as a DTPA equimolar complex in the culture medium. Induced mutagenesis was not observed with Ames' test or when test for ouabain resistance in CHO cells was used: GTG resistance and chromosome aberrations in Eucaryote cells were increased at dose rate exposure down to 5 R.day -1 . Until an optimal delivered dose, these two biological effects have shown a linear increase as a function of the dose. In our experimental conditions α irradiation has appeared to be much more lethal than mutagenic. Using lower dose rate, corresponding to 1 and 3 R a day we could also demonstrate a linear increase with dose of the induced TG resistant cells. Efficiency per unit dose was 3 to 5 times superior to what was observed at 5 R.day -1 . This phenomenon could correspond to an induced cell sensitivity, and clearly pointed out that for chronic and low delivered doses, informations deduced from flash or short term α exposure are not valuable

  15. Short-term cortical plasticity induced by conditioning pain modulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Egsgaard, Line Lindhardt; Buchgreitz, Line; Wang, Li

    2012-01-01

    To investigate the effects of homotopic and heterotopic conditioning pain modulation (CPM) on short-term cortical plasticity. Glutamate (tonic pain) or isotonic saline (sham) was injected in the upper trapezius (homotopic) and in the thenar (heterotopic) muscles. Intramuscular electrical stimulat......To investigate the effects of homotopic and heterotopic conditioning pain modulation (CPM) on short-term cortical plasticity. Glutamate (tonic pain) or isotonic saline (sham) was injected in the upper trapezius (homotopic) and in the thenar (heterotopic) muscles. Intramuscular electrical......, and after homotopic and heterotopic CPM versus control. Peak latencies at N100, P200, and P300 were extracted and the location/strength of corresponding dipole current sources and multiple dipoles were estimated. Homotopic CPM caused hypoalgesia (P = 0.032, 30.6% compared to baseline) to electrical...... stimulation. No cortical changes were found for homotopic CPM. A positive correlation at P200 between electrical pain threshold after tonic pain and the z coordinate after tonic pain (P = 0.032) was found for homotopic CPM. For heterotopic CPM, no significant hypoalgesia was found and a dipole shift of the P...

  16. A Spatiotemporal Multi-View-Based Learning Method for Short-Term Traffic Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shifen Cheng

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Short-term traffic forecasting plays an important part in intelligent transportation systems. Spatiotemporal k-nearest neighbor models (ST-KNNs have been widely adopted for short-term traffic forecasting in which spatiotemporal matrices are constructed to describe traffic conditions. The performance of the models is closely related to the spatial dependencies, the temporal dependencies, and the interaction of spatiotemporal dependencies. However, these models use distance functions and correlation coefficients to identify spatial neighbors and measure the temporal interaction by only considering the temporal closeness of traffic, which result in existing ST-KNNs that cannot fully reflect the essential features of road traffic. This study proposes an improved spatiotemporal k-nearest neighbor model for short-term traffic forecasting by utilizing a multi-view learning algorithm named MVL-STKNN that fully considers the spatiotemporal dependencies of traffic data. First, the spatial neighbors for each road segment are automatically determined using cross-correlation under different temporal dependencies. Three spatiotemporal views are built on the constructed spatiotemporal closeness, periodic, and trend matrices to represent spatially heterogeneous traffic states. Second, a spatiotemporal weighting matrix is introduced into the ST-KNN model to recognize similar traffic patterns in the three spatiotemporal views. Finally, the results of traffic pattern recognition under these three spatiotemporal views are aggregated by using a neural network algorithm to describe the interaction of spatiotemporal dependencies. Extensive experiments were conducted using real vehicular-speed datasets collected on city roads and expressways. In comparison with baseline methods, the results show that the MVL-STKNN model greatly improves short-term traffic forecasting by lowering the mean absolute percentage error between 28.24% and 46.86% for the city road dataset and

  17. Power considerations for the application of detrended fluctuation analysis in gait variability studies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikita A Kuznetsov

    Full Text Available The assessment of gait variability using stochastic signal processing techniques such as detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA has been shown to be a sensitive tool for evaluation of gait alterations due to aging and neuromuscular disease. However, previous studies have suggested that the application of DFA requires relatively long recordings (600 strides, which is difficult when working with clinical populations or older adults. In this paper we propose a model for predicting DFA variance in experimental data and conduct a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the sample size and number of trials required to detect a change in DFA scaling exponent. We illustrate the model in a simulation to detect a difference of 0.1 (medium effect between two groups of subjects when using short gait time series (100 to 200 strides in the context of between- and within-subject designs. We assumed that the variance of DFA scaling exponent arises due to individual differences, time series length, and experimental error. Results showed that sample sizes required to achieve acceptable power of 80% are practically feasible, especially when using within-subject designs. For example, to detect a group difference in the DFA scaling exponent of 0.1, it would require either 25 subjects and 2 trials per subject or 12 subjects and 4 trials per subject using a within-subject design. We then compared plausibility of such power predictions to the empirically observed power from a study that required subjects to synchronize with a persistent fractal metronome. The results showed that the model adequately predicted the empirical pattern of results. Our power simulations could be used in conjunction with previous design guidelines in the literature when planning new gait variability experiments.

  18. Macroscopic electromagnetic properties of the Irvine Field-Reversed Configuration: Equilibrium, power balance and fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trask, Erik Harold

    The plasma parameters and characteristics of the Irvine Field-Reversed Configuration (IFRC) are summarized in this thesis. Particular emphasis is placed on the development of the different diagnostics used to make measurements in the experiment, as well as the measurements themselves. Whenever possible, actual measurements are used in lieu of theoretical or analytical fits to data. Analysis of magnetic probes (B-dots) comprises the bulk of what is known about the IFRC. From these B-dot probes, the magnetic field structure in a two dimensional plane at constant toroidal position has been determined, and has been found to be consistent with a field-reversed configuration. Peak reversed fields of approximately 250 Gauss have been observed. Further analyses have been developed to extract information from the magnetic field structure, including components of the electric field, the current density, and plasma pressure in the same two dimensional plane. Electric field magnitudes reach 600 V/m, concurrent with current densities greater than 105 Amps/m2 and thermal pressures over 200 Pa. Spectroscopic analysis of hydrogen lines has been done to make estimates of the electron temperature, while spectroscopic measurements of the Doppler broadening of the Halpha line31 have allowed an estimate of the ion temperature. Particle losses out one axial end plane measured by an array of Faraday cups quantify the how well the configuration traps particles. Spectral information derived from B-dot probes indicates that there is substantial power present at frequencies lying between the hydrogen cyclotron and mean gyrofrequency. These various measurements are used to find the following parameters that characterize the Irvine FRC: (1) Electromagnetic and thermal stored energies as functions of time. (2) Power balance, including input power from the field coils, resistive heating, power lost by particle transport and radiation, and particle and energy confinement times. (3) Strong

  19. The Power Spectrum of the Milky Way: Velocity Fluctuations in the Galactic Disk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bovy, Jo; Bird, Jonathan C.; García Pérez, Ana E.; Majewski, Steven R.; Nidever, David L.; Zasowski, Gail

    2015-02-01

    We investigate the kinematics of stars in the mid-plane of the Milky Way (MW) on scales between 25 pc and 10 kpc with data from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE), the Radial Velocity Experiment (RAVE), and the Geneva-Copenhagen survey (GCS). Using red-clump (RC) stars in APOGEE, we determine the large-scale line-of-sight velocity field out to 5 kpc from the Sun in (0.75 kpc)2 bins. The solar motion V ⊙ - c with respect to the circular velocity Vc is the largest contribution to the power on large scales after subtracting an axisymmetric rotation field; we determine the solar motion by minimizing the large-scale power to be V ⊙ - c = 24 ± 1 (ran.) ± 2 (syst. [Vc ]) ± 5 (syst.[large-scale]) km s-1, where the systematic uncertainty is due to (1) a conservative 20 km s-1 uncertainty in Vc and (2) the estimated power on unobserved larger scales. Combining the APOGEE peculiar-velocity field with RC stars in RAVE out to 2 kpc from the Sun and with local GCS stars, we determine the power spectrum of residual velocity fluctuations in the MW's disk on scales between 0.2 kpc-1 plane of the Galactic disk near the Sun. Streaming motions ≈10 km s-1 on >~ 3 kpc scales in the MW are in good agreement with observations of external galaxies and directly explain why local determinations of the solar motion are inconsistent with global measurements.

  20. Polymer electrolyte membrane water electrolysis: Restraining degradation in the presence of fluctuating power

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakousky, Christoph; Reimer, Uwe; Wippermann, Klaus; Kuhri, Susanne; Carmo, Marcelo; Lueke, Wiebke; Stolten, Detlef

    2017-02-01

    Polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) water electrolysis generates 'green' hydrogen when conducted with electricity from renewable - but fluctuating - sources like wind or solar photovoltaic. Unfortunately, the long-term stability of the electrolyzer performance is still not fully understood under these input power profiles. In this study, we contrast the degradation behavior of our PEM water electrolysis single cells that occurs under operation with constant and intermittent power and derive preferable operating states. For this purpose, five different current density profiles are used, of which two were constant and three dynamic. Cells operated at 1 A cm-2 show no degradation. However, degradation was observed for the remaining four profiles, all of which underwent periods of high current density (2 A cm-2). Hereby, constant operation at 2 A cm-2 led to the highest degradation rate (194 μV h-1). Degradation can be greatly reduced when the cells are operated with an intermittent profile. Current density switching has a positive effect on durability, as it causes reversible parts of degradation to recover and results in a substantially reduced degradation per mole of hydrogen produced. Two general degradation phenomena were identified, a decreased anode exchange current density and an increased contact resistance at the titanium porous transport layer (Ti-PTL).

  1. POWER SPECTRAL DENSITY OF FLUCTUATIONS OF BULK AND THERMAL SPEEDS IN THE SOLAR WIND

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Šafránková, J.; Němeček, Z.; Němec, F.; Přech, L.; Chen, C. H. K.; Zastenker, G. N.

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes solar wind power spectra of bulk and thermal speed fluctuations that are computed with a time resolution of 32 ms in the frequency range of 0.001–2 Hz. The analysis uses measurements of the Bright Monitor of the Solar Wind on board the Spektr-R spacecraft that are limited to 570 km s 1 bulk speed. The statistics, based on more than 42,000 individual spectra, show that: (1) the spectra of bulk and thermal speeds can be fitted by two power-law segments; (2) despite their large variations, the parameters characterizing frequency spectrum fits computed on each particular time interval are very similar for both quantities; (3) the median slopes of the bulk and thermal speeds of the segment attributed to the MHD scale are 1.43 and 1.38, respectively, whereas they are 3.08 and 2.43 in the kinetic range; (4) the kinetic range slopes of bulk and thermal speed spectra become equal when either the ion density or magnetic field strength are high; (5) the break between MHD and kinetic scales seems to be controlled by the ion β parameter; (6) the best scaling parameter for bulk and thermal speed variations is a sum of the inertial length and proton thermal gyroradius; and (7) the above conclusions can be applied to the density variations if the background magnetic field is very low.

  2. POWER SPECTRAL DENSITY OF FLUCTUATIONS OF BULK AND THERMAL SPEEDS IN THE SOLAR WIND

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Šafránková, J.; Němeček, Z.; Němec, F.; Přech, L. [Charles University, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, V Holešovičkách 2, 180 00 Prague 8 (Czech Republic); Chen, C. H. K. [Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Zastenker, G. N., E-mail: jana.safrankova@mff.cuni.cz [Space Research Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia, Profsoyuznaya ul. 84/32, Moscow 117997 (Russian Federation)

    2016-07-10

    This paper analyzes solar wind power spectra of bulk and thermal speed fluctuations that are computed with a time resolution of 32 ms in the frequency range of 0.001–2 Hz. The analysis uses measurements of the Bright Monitor of the Solar Wind on board the Spektr-R spacecraft that are limited to 570 km s{sup 1} bulk speed. The statistics, based on more than 42,000 individual spectra, show that: (1) the spectra of bulk and thermal speeds can be fitted by two power-law segments; (2) despite their large variations, the parameters characterizing frequency spectrum fits computed on each particular time interval are very similar for both quantities; (3) the median slopes of the bulk and thermal speeds of the segment attributed to the MHD scale are 1.43 and 1.38, respectively, whereas they are 3.08 and 2.43 in the kinetic range; (4) the kinetic range slopes of bulk and thermal speed spectra become equal when either the ion density or magnetic field strength are high; (5) the break between MHD and kinetic scales seems to be controlled by the ion β parameter; (6) the best scaling parameter for bulk and thermal speed variations is a sum of the inertial length and proton thermal gyroradius; and (7) the above conclusions can be applied to the density variations if the background magnetic field is very low.

  3. Dependability of wind energy generators with short-term energy storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, B

    1976-11-26

    Power fluctuations and power duration curves for wind energy generators, including energy storage facilities of a certain capacity, are compared to those of typical nuclear reactors. A storage system capable of delivering the yearly average power output for about 10 hours already makes the dependability of the wind energy system comparable to that of a typical nuclear plant.

  4. Very Short-term Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Renewable Energy Generation - with Application to Solar Energy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Golestaneh, Faranak; Pinson, Pierre; Gooi, Hoay Beng

    2016-01-01

    Due to the inherent uncertainty involved in renewable energy forecasting, uncertainty quantification is a key input to maintain acceptable levels of reliability and profitability in power system operation. A proposal is formulated and evaluated here for the case of solar power generation, when only...... approach to generate very short-term predictive densities, i.e., for lead times between a few minutes to one hour ahead, with fast frequency updates. We rely on an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) as a fast regression model, trained in varied ways to obtain both point and quantile forecasts of solar power...... generation. Four probabilistic methods are implemented as benchmarks. Rival approaches are evaluated based on a number of test cases for two solar power generation sites in different climatic regions, allowing us to show that our approach results in generation of skilful and reliable probabilistic forecasts...

  5. Social Welfare and the Psychology of Food Sharing: Short-Term Hunger Increases Support for Social Welfare

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Michael Bang; Aarøe, Lene; Jensen, Niels Holm

    2014-01-01

    Do politically irrelevant events influence important policy opinions? Previous research on social welfare attitudes has emphasized the role of political factors such as economic self-interest and ideology. Here, we demonstrate that attitudes to social welfare are also influenced by short-term flu......—we consistently find that hungry individuals act in a greedier manner but describe themselves as more cooperative and express greater support for social welfare.......Do politically irrelevant events influence important policy opinions? Previous research on social welfare attitudes has emphasized the role of political factors such as economic self-interest and ideology. Here, we demonstrate that attitudes to social welfare are also influenced by short......-term fluctuations in hunger. Using theories in evolutionary psychology, we predict that hungry individuals will be greedier and take more resources from others while also attempting to induce others to share by signaling cooperative intentions and expressing support for sharing, including evolutionarily novel forms...

  6. Analysis of short-term reactor cavity transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, T.C.; Fischer, S.R.

    1981-01-01

    Following the transient of a hypothetical loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) in a nuclear reactor, peak pressures are reached within the first 0.03 s at different locations inside the reactor cavity. Due to the complicated multidimensional nature of the reactor cavity, the short-term analysis of the LOCA transient cannot be performed by using traditional containment codes, such as CONTEMPT. The advanced containment code, BEACON/MOD3, developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), can be adapted for such analysis. This code provides Eulerian, one and two-dimensional, nonhomogeneous, nonequilibrium flow modeling as well as lumped parameter, homogeneous, equilibrium flow modeling for the solution of two-component, two-phase flow problems. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the capability of the BEACON code to analyze complex containment geometry such as a reactor cavity

  7. Short-term memory loss associated with rosuvastatin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galatti, Laura; Polimeni, Giovanni; Salvo, Francesco; Romani, Marcello; Sessa, Aurelio; Spina, Edoardo

    2006-08-01

    Memory loss and cognitive impairment have been reported in the literature in association with several 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (statins), but we found no published case reports associated with rosuvastatin. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case of rosuvastatin-related short-term memory loss. A 53-year-old Caucasian man with hypercholesterolemia experienced memory loss after being treated with rosuvastatin 10 mg/day. He had no other concomitant conditions or drug therapies. After discontinuation of rosuvastatin, the neuropsychiatric adverse reaction resolved gradually, suggesting a probable drug association. During the following year, the patient remained free from neuropsychiatric disturbances. Clinicians should be aware of possible adverse cognitive reactions during statin therapy, including rosuvastatin.

  8. Short-term contracts: Descending the career ladder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Elizabeth

    2002-12-01

    Elizabeth Griffin brings a personal insight to the hurdles that women seeking a scientific career face, arguing that the only gender differences are those of attitude, tradition and style. The policy of employing some but not all academic researchers through short-term contracts is highly divisive, in that it creates a two-tier system not only of opportunities and expectations but also of personal worth and value. Far more women than men are trapped in these career cul-de-sacs, and a seriously large fraction is unable to stay in research until retirement. It is the employment policy that is at fault, not the potential of the researchers or the quality of their research.

  9. Short-term memory impairment and arithmetical ability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterworth, B; Cipolotti, L; Warrington, E K

    1996-02-01

    We document the dissociation of preserved calculation skills in a patient with impaired auditory short-term memory. The patient (MRF) had a memory span of three digits. Furthermore, he showed rapid decrement in performance of single digits and letters with both auditory and visual presentation in the Brown-Peterson forgetting task. Analysis of his calculation skills revealed a normal ability to solve auditorily presented multidigit addition and subtraction problems such as 173 + 68 and to execute the Paced Auditory Serial Addition Task (Sampson, 1956, 1958; Gronwall, 1977). In addition, his performance on other tests, including arithmetic manipulation of natural numbers, decimals and fractions, approximation, magnitude, ratio, and percentage, appeared to be normal (Hitch, 1978b). It is argued that these findings require a revision of Baddeley and Hitch's (1974) concept of the function of working memory.

  10. Short-term capture of the Earth-Moon system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Yi; de Ruiter, Anton

    2018-06-01

    In this paper, the short-term capture (STC) of an asteroid in the Earth-Moon system is proposed and investigated. First, the space condition of STC is analysed and five subsets of the feasible region are defined and discussed. Then, the time condition of STC is studied by parameter scanning in the Sun-Earth-Moon-asteroid restricted four-body problem. Numerical results indicate that there is a clear association between the distributions of the time probability of STC and the five subsets. Next, the influence of the Jacobi constant on STC is examined using the space and time probabilities of STC. Combining the space and time probabilities of STC, we propose a STC index to evaluate the probability of STC comprehensively. Finally, three potential STC asteroids are found and analysed.

  11. Short-term facilitation may stabilize parametric working memory trace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir eItskov

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Networks with continuous set of attractors are considered to be a paradigmatic model for parametric working memory, but require fine-tuning of connections and are thus structurally unstable. Here we analyzed the network with ring attractor, where connections are not perfectly tuned and the activity state therefore drifts in the absence of the stabilizing stimulus. We derive an analytical expression for the drift dynamics and conclude that the network cannot function as working memory for a period of several seconds, a typical delay time in monkey memory experiments. We propose that short-term synaptic facilitation in recurrent connections significantly improves the robustness of the model by slowing down the drift of activity bump. Extending the calculation of the drift velocity to network with synaptic facilitation, we conclude that facilitation can slow down the drift by a large factor, rendering the network suitable as a model of working memory.

  12. Emulating short-term synaptic dynamics with memristive devices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berdan, Radu; Vasilaki, Eleni; Khiat, Ali; Indiveri, Giacomo; Serb, Alexandru; Prodromakis, Themistoklis

    2016-01-01

    Neuromorphic architectures offer great promise for achieving computation capacities beyond conventional Von Neumann machines. The essential elements for achieving this vision are highly scalable synaptic mimics that do not undermine biological fidelity. Here we demonstrate that single solid-state TiO2 memristors can exhibit non-associative plasticity phenomena observed in biological synapses, supported by their metastable memory state transition properties. We show that, contrary to conventional uses of solid-state memory, the existence of rate-limiting volatility is a key feature for capturing short-term synaptic dynamics. We also show how the temporal dynamics of our prototypes can be exploited to implement spatio-temporal computation, demonstrating the memristors full potential for building biophysically realistic neural processing systems.

  13. Short-Term Market Risks Implied by Weekly Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben Gustav; Fusari, Nicola; Todorov, Viktor

    a direct way to study volatility and jump risks. Unlike longer-dated options, they are largely insensitive to the risk of intertemporal shifts in the economic environment. Adopting a novel semi-nonparametric approach, we uncover variation in the negative jump tail risk which is not spanned by market......We study short-term market risks implied by weekly S&P 500 index options. The introduction of weekly options has dramatically shifted the maturity profile of traded options over the last five years, with a substantial proportion now having expiry within one week. Such short-dated options provide......" by the level of market volatility and elude standard asset pricing models....

  14. Panorama 2011: Short-term trends in the gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lecarpentier, A.

    2011-01-01

    2009 was a particularly bad year for the natural gas industry, with demand falling dramatically by 2.8% as a result of the world economic crisis. However, 2010 appears to have been a very positive year for the industry, with a sustained increase in production and trade. Increased economic activity, together with harsh winters and competitive gas prices are the reasons for the markets having rediscovered their buoyancy. Although the economic recovery has shown signs of fragility in OECD countries, global natural gas demand should continue to grow rapidly in the short-term, driven by consumption in developing countries, suggesting that the gas bubble will be reabsorbed faster than expected on the international markets. (author)

  15. The Delicate Analysis of Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Changwei; Zheng, Yuan

    2017-05-01

    This paper proposes a new method for short-term load forecasting based on the similar day method, correlation coefficient and Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) to achieve the precision analysis of load variation from three aspects (typical day, correlation coefficient, spectral analysis) and three dimensions (time dimension, industry dimensions, the main factors influencing the load characteristic such as national policies, regional economic, holidays, electricity and so on). First, the branch algorithm one-class-SVM is adopted to selection the typical day. Second, correlation coefficient method is used to obtain the direction and strength of the linear relationship between two random variables, which can reflect the influence caused by the customer macro policy and the scale of production to the electricity price. Third, Fourier transform residual error correction model is proposed to reflect the nature of load extracting from the residual error. Finally, simulation result indicates the validity and engineering practicability of the proposed method.

  16. Visual short-term memory for sequential arrays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Arjun; Jiang, Yuhong

    2005-04-01

    The capacity of visual short-term memory (VSTM) for a single visual display has been investigated in past research, but VSTM for multiple sequential arrays has been explored only recently. In this study, we investigate the capacity of VSTM across two sequential arrays separated by a variable stimulus onset asynchrony (SOA). VSTM for spatial locations (Experiment 1), colors (Experiments 2-4), orientations (Experiments 3 and 4), and conjunction of color and orientation (Experiment 4) were tested, with the SOA across the two sequential arrays varying from 100 to 1,500 msec. We find that VSTM for the trailing array is much better than VSTM for the leading array, but when averaged across the two arrays VSTM has a constant capacity independent of the SOA. We suggest that multiple displays compete for retention in VSTM and that separating information into two temporally discrete groups does not enhance the overall capacity of VSTM.

  17. Attention restores discrete items to visual short-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Alexandra M; Nobre, Anna C; Clark, Ian A; Cravo, André M; Stokes, Mark G

    2013-04-01

    When a memory is forgotten, is it lost forever? Our study shows that selective attention can restore forgotten items to visual short-term memory (VSTM). In our two experiments, all stimuli presented in a memory array were designed to be equally task relevant during encoding. During the retention interval, however, participants were sometimes given a cue predicting which of the memory items would be probed at the end of the delay. This shift in task relevance improved recall for that item. We found that this type of cuing improved recall for items that otherwise would have been irretrievable, providing critical evidence that attention can restore forgotten information to VSTM. Psychophysical modeling of memory performance has confirmed that restoration of information in VSTM increases the probability that the cued item is available for recall but does not improve the representational quality of the memory. We further suggest that attention can restore discrete items to VSTM.

  18. Implementing a short-term family support group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, E; Cox, D; Hastings, S

    1991-05-01

    1. Although family involvement has been increasingly recognized as a vital component in the treatment and care of the mentally ill, little has been written about efforts to provide education and support to the families of patients hospitalized for short-term evaluation and treatment. 2. The family education and support group provided emotional support and critical information to increase family members' coping and problem solving abilities, and enabled them to return to a pre-crisis or higher level of functioning. 3. The family education and support group not only enhances the assessment and planning phases of the nursing process, but it also can serve as a useful intervention for strengthening the patient's major support system.

  19. Pro short-term procurement - U.S. utility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, R.D.

    1990-01-01

    The author expresses the opinion that rather than focusing market discussions around short-term versus long-term procurement strategies, the parties need to be focusing on how long it is going to take to get to a predominantly market-based price both in uranium and enrichment. Long-term contracts are going to be around and will always be an important part of buyers' and sellers' strategies. It is evident that the annual term contract price renegotiations around the world are resulting in continually lower prices. When these price negotiations finally arrive in the range of the market price, a commodity market that resembles other energy commodity markets can be obtained

  20. Pro short-term procurement - Broker/trader

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoellen, E.E.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents his opinion on the issue of short-term versus long-term procurement of uranium and enrichment and the impact on reliability of supply. The progression of the market has been one of increasing commoditization. Utility buyers have moved towards purchasing uranium on the spot market and linking long-term contracts to spot-market pricing. There is some logic to the argument that utilities and the industry in general would be best served by this approach. Inventories would be worked off much more quickly, and unnecessary supply would be shut off until prices recovered to profitable levels. The result would be a healthier market with no detriment to the reliability of supply